COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Technical information Accompanying the document REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL EU Climate Action Progress Report 2024
Date: 2024-10-31
Institutions: Directorate-General for Climate Action, European Commission
Subjects: EU Emissions Trading Scheme, EU environmental policy, adaptation to climate change, carbon neutrality, climate change, environmental cooperation, forestry policy, investment, land use, pollution control measures

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 31.10.2024  SWD(2024) 249 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Technical information Accompanying the document REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL EU Climate Action Progress Report 2024 {COM(2024) 498 final}  
 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1  OVERVIEW OF EU CLIMATE TARGETS .................................................................................. 3 

EU CLIMATE TARGETS, ESTIMATING THE EMISSIONS FALLING UNDER ITS SCOPE 

2 
(Technical note) ....................................................................................................................................... 6 

2.1 

2.2 

2.3 

Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 6 

EU climate targets as defined in the European Climate Law .................................................. 6 

The EU target scope ................................................................................................................ 7 

2.4  Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 9 

2.5 

Emission estimates ................................................................................................................ 12 

3 

EU’S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS: TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS ............................. 14 

3.1 

3.2 

3.3 

3.4 

EU greenhouse gas emissions and removals: recent developments ...................................... 14 

Drivers of greenhouse gas emission reduction since 1990 .................................................... 17 

Progress towards Climate Neutrality ..................................................................................... 19 

Additional greenhouse gases indicators ................................................................................ 25 

4 
TRACKING PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EU’s NDC SETTING ITS 2030 TARGET UNDER 
THE UNFCCC ENHANCED TRANSPARENCY FRAMEWORK .................................................... 28 

5  REPORT ON THE QUALITY OF PETROL AND DIESEL FUEL USED FOR ROAD 
TRANSPORT IN THE EUROPEAN UNION (reporting year 2022) .................................................. 30 

5.1 

5.2 

Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 30 

Volumes and life cycle greenhouse gas intensity of fuel and energy types .......................... 30 

5.2.1 

5.2.2 

5.2.3 

5.2.4 

Greenhouse gas emissions and distance to 2020 target ................................................. 31 

Fuel supply .................................................................................................................... 33 

Biofuel consumption ..................................................................................................... 34 

Electricity consumption ................................................................................................. 34 

5.3 

Overview of the EU’s 2022 fuel quality data ........................................................................ 35 

5.3.1 

5.3.2 

5.3.3 

Petrol and diesel ............................................................................................................ 36 

Biocomponents content ................................................................................................. 37 

Compliance of sold fuels with quality limits ................................................................. 37 

6 

EU ETS EMISSIONS ................................................................................................................... 39 

7  USE OF REVENUES FROM AUCTIONING OF ETS ALLOWANCES ................................... 40 

8 

EMISSIONS COVERED BY THE EFFORT SHARING LEGISLATION ................................. 48 

Box on Waste emissions .................................................................................................................... 64 

9 

LULUCF ....................................................................................................................................... 69 

10 

PREPAREDNESS FOR AND RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE IMPACTS ............................... 71 

10.1  European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) ..................................................................... 71 

10.2  The EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change .............................................................. 77 

10.3  Adaptation stories .................................................................................................................. 80 

1 

 
 
10.4  The EU Mission Adaptation Community .............................................................................. 80 

11 

12 

COMMISSION’S ASSESSMENT OF LONG-TERM STRATEGIES .................................... 81 

EXAMPLES OF FUNDING OF CLIMATE RELATED PROJECTS ..................................... 87 

12.1  Example of project funded by the Innovation Fund .............................................................. 87 

12.2  Example of project funded by the Modernisation Fund ........................................................ 89 

12.3  Land and Nature .................................................................................................................... 90 

12.4  Sustainable mobility .............................................................................................................. 90 

12.5  Preparedness and resilience ................................................................................................... 91 

12.6  Society and Communities ...................................................................................................... 92 

12.7 

International Initiatives .......................................................................................................... 92 

2 

 
 
 
1  OVERVIEW OF EU CLIMATE TARGETS  

Table 1.1: Overview of new climate targets as adopted under the Fit for 55 package 

International commitments 

EU domestic legislation 

2020 Climate and 
Energy Package 

2030 Climate and Energy Framework 

2050 

The EU’s 
commitment 
under the 
Kyoto 
Protocol (KP) 

The EU’s 
commitment 
under the 
Paris 
Agreement 

EU ETS 

Effort 
Sharing 
Decision 
(ESD) 

EU ETS  
(ETS1) 

 ETS 2 for 
buildings, 
road 
transport and 
small-
emitting 
industry 1 

Effort Sharing 
Regulation 
(ESR) 

LULUCF 

Target year of 
period 

Second 
commitment period 
(2013-2020) 

Already in force 
– covers the 
period post 2020 

2013-2020 

2021 - 2030 

2050 

Overall 
emission 
reduction 
target 

Emission 
reduction 
target 

-20% 

at least -55% net 
emissions in 
2030 

-20% GHG emissions 
reduction vs 1990 

at least -55% net domestic reduction vs 1990 

-21% in 
2020 
compared 
with 2005 
for ETS 
emissions 

-10% in 
2020 
compared 
with 2005 
for non-
ETS 
emissions 

-62% in 2030 
compared with 
2005 for EU 
ETS emissions 

-42% in 2030 
compared with 2005 
for ETS 2 emissions  

-40% in 2030 
compared with 2005 
for ESR emissions 
(non- ETS1 
emissions) 

Annual binding 

First phase 2021-
2025 ‘no-debit' 
commitment to 
maintain current 
carbon sink 
levels. In a 
second phase 

climate neutrality (Balance 
between emissions and 
removals) 

1 Surrendering of allowances under the new ETS 2 will start in 2027. 

3 

 
 
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
Annual 
binding 
targets by 
MS ranging 
from +20% 
to -20%. 

targets by MS 
ranging from -10% to 
-50%.  

2005 

2005 

2005 

2005 

2026-2030:  EU-
wide target of -
310 Mt CO2 
equivalent of net 
removals by 
2030, each MS 
will have 
nationally 
binding 2030 
targets 
Subject to 
accounting rules 

1990 for overall emission 
reduction target 

1990 for overall emission reduction target 

N/A 

No carry 
over from 
previous 
period. 

Indefinite validity of allowances not limited 
to trading periods. No need to carry over. 

No 

No 

No 

CO2, CH4, 
N2O, HFCs, 
PFCs, SF6 

CO2, CH4, N2O, 
HFCs, PFCs, SF6  

CO2, CH4, N2O, 
HFCs, PFCs, SF6  

Power & 
heat 
generation, 
energy-
intensive 
industry 

Transport 
(except 
aviation), 
buildings, 
non-ETS 
industry, 

Electricity & heat 
generation, energy-
intensive industry, 
aviation 4, maritime 5  

Buildings, road 
transport and 
small-emitting 
sectors (i.e. 
emissions from 
fuel combustion in 

CO2, CH4, 
N2O, HFCs, 
PFCs, SF6, 
NF3 

Domestic 
transport 
(except 
aviation), 
buildings, 
non-ETS 

CO2, CH4, N2O 

CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, NF3,  
HFCs, PFCs 

Land use, land use 
change and forestry 

Economy-wide 

Base year 

1990, but subject to 
flexibility rules. 
1995 or 2000 may 
be used as its base 
year for Nitrogen 
trifluoride (NF3) 

Carry-over of 
units from 
preceding 
periods 2 

Subject to KP rules 
including those 
agreed in the Doha 
Amendment 

1990 

No 

Gases covered 

CO2, CH4, N2O, 
HFCs 3, PFCs, SF6, 
NF3 

CO2, CH4, N2O, 
HFCs, PFCs, 
SF6, NF3 

Sectors 
included 

Energy, IPPU, 
agriculture, waste, 
LULUCF 

Energy, IPPU, 
agriculture, 
waste, LULUCF 

EU ETS 
allowances 
can be 
banked into 
subsequent 
ETS trading 
periods 
since the 
second 
trading 
period. 

CO2, N2O, 
PFCs, 

2 For the CP2 it refers to carry over from CP1. For the ETS it refers to carry-over from previous trading period under the scheme itself. For the effort sharing legislation it refers to carry over 
from ESD to ESR. For LULUCF it refers to carry-over from Kyoto Protocol period. 
3 HFCs are also covered by the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which entered into force on the 1st of January 2019. 
4 Emissions from flights between EEA airports as well as flights departing to airports in Switzerland and in the UK. 
5 Emissions from all large ships entering EU ports in respect of 50% of emissions from voyages starting or ending outside of the EU and 100% of emissions that occur between two EU ports and 
when ships are within EU ports. 

4 

 
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
sectors, 
aviation 

agriculture 
 and waste 

these sectors) 

industry, 
agriculture  
and waste 

IPCC AR5 

IPCC AR4 

IPCC AR5 

IPCC AR5 

 EU-27 

EU-27 6 

EU-27 7 

EU-27 8 

Global 
Warming 
Potentials 
used 

Applicable to 
number of MS 

IPCC 
SAR 

IPCC 
AR4 

15 
(additio-
nal KP 
targets 
for 
single 
MS) 

EU-27, 
UK 
and 
Iceland 

6 In addition to the 27 Member States, Northern Ireland, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway are also covered under the EU-ETS. The UK was initially also covered by the ESD. 
7 In addition to the 27 Member States, Northern Ireland, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway are also covered under the EU-ETS. Norway and Iceland have also incorporated the ESR. 
8 Within the Agreement on the European Economic Area, Iceland and Norway cooperate with the EU-27 towards achieving the 2030 targets in the LULUCF and Effort Sharing sectors. 

5 

 
 
 
 
2  EU CLIMATE TARGETS, ESTIMATING THE EMISSIONS 

FALLING UNDER ITS SCOPE (TECHNICAL NOTE) 

2.1  INTRODUCTION 

The tracking of progress towards the EU climate targets (i.e. 2020, 2030 and the 2050 climate-
neutrality  objective)  compared  with  1990  emissions,  has  so  far  been  based  on  the  annual  EU 
greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory submitted to the UNFCCC. Use has been made of total GHG 
emissions,  net  of  removals  (LULUCF)  and  including/excluding  emissions  from  international 
aviation (GHG inventory).  However, none of these  aggregates  reflects the exact  legal  scope as 
set  out  in  the  European  Climate  Law  9.  Nor  do  the  aggregates  reflect  the  scope  of  the  EU’s 
nationally determined contribution (NDC) as submitted to the UNFCCC secretariat. 

This note first describes the 2050 climate-neutrality objective and the 2030 climate target set in 
the European Climate Law. It then sets out a definition of aggregates that more closely reflects 
their legal scope and the methodology that the Commission recommends for the estimation of the 
emissions  since  1990.  This  refers  in  particular  to  the  estimation  of  the  emissions  from 
international aviation and maritime transport currently covered by the EU law. This is because 
the  scope  of  the  EU  ETS  has  evolved  since  it  was  created  in  2005,  with  the  inclusion  of  new 
countries,  activities  and  gases.  It  is  therefore  necessary  to  produce  estimates  of  historical 
emissions  for  aviation  and  maritime  transport  in  line  with  the  scope  of  the  European  Climate 
Law and consistently with the current scope of the EU ETS. 

2.2  EU CLIMATE TARGETS AS DEFINED IN THE EUROPEAN CLIMATE LAW 

Article 2(1) of the European Climate Law provides that:  

Union-wide  greenhouse  gas  emissions  and  removals  regulated  in  Union  law  shall  be  balanced 
within the Union at the latest by 2050, thus reducing emissions to net zero by  that date, and the 
Union shall aim to achieve negative emissions thereafter. 

The  2050  objective  is  set  at  EU  level  and  is  economy-wide.  It  is  to  be  achieved  domestically, 
without the use of international credits 10. The emissions and removals regulated in EU law can 
change over time. There should be a territorial link with the EU, and the exact territorial scope is 
set by the acts that regulate the GHG emissions and removals. 

Article 4(1) on intermediate EU climate targets provides that:  

9 Regulation  (EU)  2021/1119  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  30 June 2021  establishing  the  framework  for 
achieving  climate  neutrality  and  amending  Regulations  (EC)  No 401/2009  and  (EU)  2018/1999  (‘European  Climate  Law’), 
OJ L 243, 9.7.2021, p. 1. 
10 The following GHG are covered: Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O), Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), 
Nitrogen  trifluoride  (NF3),  Hydrofluorocarbons  (HFCs)  (see  list  HFCs  in  Part  2  of  Annex  V  to  Regulation  (EU)  2018/1999), 
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) (see list PFCs in Part 2 of Annex V to Regulation (EU) 2018/1999). It includes GHG emissions and 
removals regulated in Union law. 

6 

 
 
In order to reach the climate-neutrality objective set out in Article 2(1), the binding Union 2030 
climate  target  shall  be  a  domestic  reduction  of  net  greenhouse  gas  emissions  (emissions  after 
deduction of removals) by at least 55% compared with 1990 levels by 2030. 

When implementing the target referred to in the first subparagraph, the relevant Union institutions 
and the Member States shall prioritise swift and predictable emission reductions and, at the same 
time, enhance removals by natural sinks. 

In order to ensure that sufficient mitigation efforts are deployed up to 2030, for the purpose of this 
Regulation and without prejudice to the review of Union legislation referred to in paragraph 2, the 
contribution of net removals to the Union 2030 climate target shall be limited to 225 million tonnes 
of  CO2  equivalent.  In  order  to  enhance  the  Union’s  carbon  sink  in  line  with  the  objective  of 
achieving  climate  neutrality  by  2050,  the  Union  shall  aim  to  achieve  a  higher  volume  of  its  net 
carbon sink in 2030. 

The 2030 climate target is a step on the way to achieving the 2050 climate-neutrality objective, 
and the scopes should be consistent. What is covered in the legislation enabling the achievement 
of the 2030 target is under the scope of the 2030 target (with the contribution of net removals to 
the 2030 EU climate target limited to 225 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent) 11. It is a domestic 
reduction, meaning without using international credits, economy-wide, net, and covers the same 
GHG as the 2050  climate-neutrality objective (listed  in  Part 2  of Annex V to Regulation (EU) 
2018/1999).  

2.3  THE EU TARGET SCOPE 

Based  on  the  above,  the  scope  that  best  represent  the  EU’s  climate  mitigation  target  can  be 
obtained by adding to the EU-27 total domestic GHG emission, including LULUCF, the EU-27 
emissions from international aviation and maritime transport regulated in EU Law. In particular 
and for the purpose of tracking the progress towards the EU climate target, EU emissions cover: 

International aviation (EU target scope):  CO2 emissions from flights between the EU Member States 
and  departing  flights  to  Iceland,  Norway,  Switzerland  and  the  United  Kingdom.  International  aviation 
also  covers  CO2  emissions  from  non-domestic  flights  between  EU  Member  States  and  the  Outermost 
Regions (OMRs) 12. 

By July 2026, the Commission will make a legislative proposal to revise the EU ETS that will 
include  the  scope  of  the  EU  ETS  for  aviation.  According  to  the  revised  EU  ETS  Directive 13,  

11 According  to  recital  20  of the  European  Climate  Law,  “sinks  include natural  and  technological  solutions,  as  reported  in  the 
Union’s  greenhouse  gas  inventories  to  the  UNFCCC”.  The  GHG  inventories  allow  for  the  reporting  of  “technological”  sinks, 
referred to as “industrial carbon removals” in the CRCF. However, they are not covered by a specific policy instrument (notably 
they  are  not  recognised under  the  ETS  Directive,  the  ESR  or  the  LULUCF  Regulation)  and  so  at  this  time  are  considered not 
regulated  under  Union  Law  with  the  purpose  of  meeting  the  2030  climate  target.  The  GHG  inventory  under  the  UNFCCC 
includes BECCS, based on IPCC guidelines but not DACCS. Note that there are currently no “industrial removals” to be reported 
in the GHG inventories, but that projects are being developed in some Member States which are expected to be operational in the 
coming years. 
12 From 1 January 2024, the revised EU ETS also covers non-domestic flights to and from outermost regions that were previously 
exempted.  The  outermost  regions  of  the  EEA  Member  Countries  are:  i)  France:  French  Guiana,  Guadeloupe,  Martinique, 
Mayotte, Reunion, Saint Martin; ii) Spain: Canary Islands; iii) Portugal: Azores, Madeira. 
13 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:32023L0958 

7 

 
 
from  1  January  2027,  flights  involving  third  countries  not  applying  ICAO’s  CORSIA  scheme 
will also be covered by the EU ETS, except for flights involving most small island countries and 
Least  Developed  Countries14.  Depending  on  the  assessment  preparing  the  legislative  proposal, 
the  revised  scope  may  be  changed  so  that  flights  to  third  countries  applying  ICAO’s  CORSIA 
scheme  will  also  be  covered  by  the  EU  ETS.  Consequently,  the  target  scope  will  be  adjusted 
accordingly. 

Figure 2.1: Illustration of emissions from aviation covered by the EU target scope. 

Table 2.1: Aviation emissions covered by the EU climate target. 

Emissions 

Domestic aviation 

Intra-EEA aviation 

Domestic 
EU flights  
(e.g. 
Palermo 
Milan) 

Domestic 
“non-EU 
EEA” 
flights (e.g. 
Oslo to 
Bergen) 

EU 2030 
target 
scope 

Yes 

No 

To OMRs 
(e.g. Canary 
Islands to 
Madrid) 

No 
(covered by 
ESR) 

Flights 
between 
“non-EU 
EEA” 
countries 
(from Oslo to 
Reykjavik) 

Flights 
within the 
EEA, 
arriving at 
EU airport 
from an 
EEA non-
EU airport 

Flights 
within the 
EEA, 
departing 
from EU 
airports 

Extra-EEA 
aviation 

flights 
to/from EU 
airports 
from/to 
OMRs 

departing 
flights from 
EU airports 
to UK and 
Switzerland 

No 

No 

Yes 

From Jan 2024 

Yes 

International  maritime  transport  (EU  target  scope):  GHG  emissions  (i.e.  CO2 and  from  2026  CH4, 
N2O)    from  cargo  and  passenger  ships  of  or  above  5  000  GT  as  follows:  i)  50%  of  emissions  from 
voyages departing from a port outside the jurisdiction of an EU Member State and arriving at a port under 
the jurisdiction of an EU Member State; ii) 50% of emissions from voyages departing from a port under 
the jurisdiction of an EU Member State and arriving at a port outside the jurisdiction of an EU Member 
State; iii) 100% of emissions from voyages departing from a port under the jurisdiction of an EU Member 
State  and  arriving  at a  port  under the  jurisdiction  of another  EU  Member  State;  iv)  100%  of emissions 
within a port under the jurisdiction of an EU Member State. 

14 Article 25a(6) of Directive 2003/87/EC 

8 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure 2.2: Illustration of maritime transport covered by the EU target scope. 

Table 2.2: Maritime emissions covered by the EU climate target  

Emissions 

Domestic maritime 
transport 

International maritime transport 

At berth 

Voyages 
within an EU 
MS 
(e.g. Valencia - 
Barcelona) 

Voyages 
within 
NO/IS  
(e.g. Oslo - 
Bergen) 

Voyages 
between two 
EU MS 
(e.g. Valencia - 
Rotterdam) 

Voyages 
between 
an EU MS 
and 
NO/IS 
(e.g. 
Rotterdam 
- Oslo) 

Voyages 
between an 
EU MS and a 
third country 

Voyages 
between 
NO/IS and 
a third 
country 
(or IS/NO) 

At berth 
emissions 
in a port 
of an EU 
MS 

At berth 
emissions in 
a port of NO 
and IS, or of 
a third 
country 

EU 2030 
target 
scope 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

50% 

Yes 

50% 

No 

Yes 

No 

2.4  METHODOLOGY 

International  aviation  and  maritime  emissions  covered  by  the  EU  targets,  as  defined  in  the 
European Climate Law, are estimated by using the Joint Research Centre’s Integrated Database 
of the European Energy System (JRC-IDEES) 15. It allows to split the international transport CO2 
emissions  into  intra-EU/extra-EU  and  intra-EEA/extra-EEA  categories  backwards  in  time  (i.e. 
1990) 16.  

15 European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Jaxa-Rozen, M., Rozsai, M. and Neuwahl, F., Aligning historical 
international  aviation  and  maritime  transport  data  to  the  scope  of  EU  climate  policies,  Publications  Office  of  the 
European Union, Luxembourg, JRC139028. https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC139028 
16 The JRC-IDEES analytical database is designed to support energy modelling and policy analysis, by combining 
primary statistics with technical assumptions to compile detailed energy-economy-emissions historical data for each 
key energy sector. For aviation, EEA emissions includes emissions related to the UK but not to Switzerland, where 
total CO2 emissions for the scope are additionally estimated from EUROCONTROL data. 

9 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
For international transport, JRC-IDEES applies a decomposition methodology that reconciles the 
scopes of available primary statistics and harmonises historical data on international aviation and 
maritime emissions, energy use, and transport activity. The resulting annual dataset covers 1990-
2021 and distinguishes between domestic, intra-EU/intra-EEA, and extra-EU/extra-EEA activity 
for each EU Member State, Iceland and Norway. 

In  aviation,  JRC-IDEES  distinguishes  between  passenger  and  freight  modes,  with  three 
geographical  categories  of  flight  origin/destinations  for  each  mode:  domestic,  intra-EEA+UK, 
and  extra-EEA+UK.  Intra-EU,  UK,  and  EEA  categories  are  also  used  internally  during 
calibration  but  aggregated  for  reporting.  For  each  mode/category  combination,  JRC-IDEES 
estimates activity (as passenger-km or tonne-km), energy use and CO2 emissions, aircraft stock 
(expressed as representative aircraft), load factors, and aircraft efficiencies. As country-specific 
activity statistics are not available, the decomposition first allocates EU-level activity data from 
the DG MOVE Transport Pocketbook 17 to each country and flight category.  

Figure 2.3: Aviation emissions: Overview of the methodology. 

For passenger modes, this allocation calculates average load factors using Eurostat data on total 
passengers  and  flights.  These  load  factors  and  total  flight  numbers  are  combined  with  average 
flight  distances  from  EUROCONTROL  to  yield  an  initial  estimate  for  passenger  transport 
activity. For intra-EU activity, a uniform scaling factor is then applied across Member States to 
match total EU-level Transport Pocketbook data. Freight activity follows a similar process, using 
a “representative flight” concept with a common load factor across all Member States to account 
for mixed passenger-freight flights. 

Next, the decomposition estimates fuel use from EUROCONTROL data, by deriving a distance-
dependent average aircraft efficiency then applying it to the country-specific ensemble of flights 
and routes. The final step scales the estimates to meet Eurostat energy balances for total domestic 

17

 https://transport.ec.europa.eu/facts-funding/studies-data/eu-transport-figures-statistical-pocketbook/statistical-

pocketbook-2023_en 

10 

 
 
 
and international consumption back to 1990  values, maintaining  intra-EEA/extra-EEA fuel use 
ratios  derived  from  EUROCONTROL.  JRC-IDEES  additionally  reports  resulting  differences 
with  UNFCCC  country  submissions.    The  above  process  is  followed  throughout  the  entire 
decomposition  period  (1990-2021).  Data  gaps  are  estimated  from  the  existing  indicators  as 
follows: 

•  The process iterates backwards towards 1990, starting from the oldest years in which data 

is available in each Member State. 

•  Average  flight  distance  is  kept  constant  for  early  years  without  EUROCONTROL  data 

• 

(generally before 2004). 
If the load factor (passengers per flight) cannot be calculated by lack of passenger and/or 
flight data, it is estimated from the trend of the existing time series. 

•  Missing numbers of flights are calculated from the load factor and the passengers carried. 
• 
If  no  passenger  data  is  available,  the  total  mileage  is  estimated  from  the  energy 
consumption,  and  combined  with  average  flight  distance  to  estimate  the  number  of 
flights. The number of flights is then combined with the load factor to estimate the total 
passengers carried. 

•  For early years without data, constant values are assumed for the factors used to i) scale 
intra-EU  activity  to  the  Transport  Pocketbook,  ii)  adjust  the  estimated  fuel  use  to 
EUROCONTROL data for specific routes, and iii) scale this adjusted fuel use to Eurostat 
energy  balances  (e.g.  before  1995  for  Transport  Pocketbook  data;  before  2004  for 
EUROCONTROL data). 

For  international  maritime  bunkers,  JRC-IDEES  estimates  data  both  for  intraEU/extraEU  and 
intraEEA/extraEEA  geographical  categories.  For  the  purpose  of  the  present  exercise,  the 
emission  estimates  already  include  CO2, CH4,  and  N2O  gases.  Transport  activity  (tonne-km)  is 
estimated from Eurostat data on gross weight of transported goods, using port-level and country-
level data for intra-EU and extra-EU categories, respectively. Intra-EU activities are then scaled 
to match the DG MOVE Transport Pocketbook totals, accounting for domestic coastal shipping 
(calibrated separately in JRC-IDEES). Next, transport activity is combined with THETIS MRV 
EU-level  mileage  data  and  country-specific  vessel  sizes  to  estimate  load  factors  (tonne  per 
movement). The load factors and resulting annual mileage (km) are calibrated to meet EU-level 
THETIS  MRV  mileage.  The  annual  mileage  is  in  turn  combined  with  THETIS  MRV  average 
efficiency to yield a  total  technical  energy consumption, with corresponding emissions derived 
from default emissions factors. This energy consumption is scaled to Eurostat energy balances so 
as to minimize discrepancy to total intra-EU THETIS MRV emissions. As with aviation, JRC-
IDEES reports corresponding differences to UNFCCC submissions. Early years with data gaps 
are estimated from existing indicators as follows: 

•  The process iterates backwards towards 1990, starting from the oldest years in which 

data is available in each Member State. 

•  Average distance of voyages is kept constant for early years without Eurostat activity 

• 

data (generally before 1997-2000). 
If the load factor (tonnes per movement) cannot be estimated by lack of activity data, 
it is kept constant. 

11 

 
If activity data is not available, it is estimated from Eurostat energy consumption. 

• 
•  Missing mileage data is derived from the activity and load factor estimates. 
•  For  early  years  without  data,  constant  values  are  assumed  for  the  factors  used  to  i) 
scale  intra-EU  activity  to  the  Transport  Pocketbook,  ii)  scale  estimated  mileage  to 
meet  EU-level  THETIS  MRV  mileage,  and  iii)  scale  domestic  and  intra-EU  CO2 
emissions  estimated  from  energy  consumption  so  as  to  match  total  THETIS  MRV 
CO2 emissions. 

•  Finally, the ratios between the estimated MRV emissions and the CO2 emissions for 
the  reported  transport  activity  (for  intra-EU/EEA  and  extra-EU/EEA  categories) 
between 2018 and 2021 are used to calculate the MRV compliant estimates back to 
1990 levels. 

For  the  year  2022  and  2023,  the  international  maritime  and  aviation  emissions  under  the  EU 
target  scope  have  been  estimated  by  applying  the  same  share  of  those  emissions  on  the  total 
international maritime and aviation emissions (GHG inventory) as reported in 2021. 

2.5  EMISSION ESTIMATES 
Figure 2.4: EU-27 GHG international aviation and maritime transport under the EU target scope (1990-2023), 
Commission’s estimates.  

12 

 
 
 
 
Table 2.3: EU-27 GHG emissions under the EU target scope (1990-2023), Commission’s estimates. 

Table 2.4: Reduction of net GHGs in 2023 compared with 1990. 

13 

EU-27Source1990199520002005201020152020202120222023(proxy)Total emissions (UNFCCC)EEA GHG 202348674559445345444172381132933461337531194 - Land Use, Land-Use Change and ForestryEEA GHG 2023-217-317-311-348-351-325-241-241-236-257Net GHG domestic emissionsEEA GHG 20244650424141424196382034863052322031382862Intern. aviation under the EU climate target scopeJRC-IDEES-202424283440414519264146Intern. navigation under the EU climate target scopeJRC-IDEES-202462637992917673757772Intra-EU navigation (MRV compliant, NDC scope*)JRC-IDEES-202426283537383130303129Net GHG emissions (target scope)own calculation4736433242554327395336073144332232572980Net GHG emissions (NDC scope)own calculation4700429642124272389935623100327732112937Notes: i) Target scope includes: for International aviation, intra-EU flights, departing flights from EU27 to EEA (non-EU) countries, to UK and to CH; for International maritime: emissions from voyages between two EU27 Member States, 50% of emissions from voyages between a EU27 Member State and NO/IS, 50% of emissions from vvoyages between an EU27 Member States and a third country. ii) NDC scope includes: for International aviation as for the target scope; for International maritime, emissions from voyages within the EU27 Member States.199020232023/1990Domestic46502862-38.4%Target scope47362980-37.1%NDC scope47002937-37.5% 
 
 
 
 
3  EU’S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS: TRENDS AND 

PROJECTIONS 

3.1  EU GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS 

Preliminary  EU  GHG  emissions  in  2023  show  a  clear  strong  reduction  compared  with  2022, 
broadly  in  line with  the linear declining  trajectory towards the  -55%  EU  2030  reduction  target 
(Figure  3.1).  Total  EU  domestic  GHG  emissions  (i.e.  excluding  LULUCF  and  international 
transport)  decreased  by  7.4%  in  2023  compared  with  2022.  This  translates  into  a  reduction  in 
GHG  emissions  of  35.8%  compared  with  the  1990  base  year  (or  34.5%  when  international 
transport  under  the  EU  target  scope  is  included)  18 .  Over  the  same  period,  there  is  an 
approximated  increase  in  reported  GHG  net  removals  from  land  use,  land  use  change,  and 
forestry (LULUCF) of around 20 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent compared with 2022 19. As a 
result, net GHG emissions for 2023 (i.e. including LULUCF) are expected to decrease by 8.6% 
compared with 2022  and to  be  38.3% below the  1990 level  (or  8.3% and 36.9%,  respectively, 
when international transport under the EU target scope is included).  

Figure 3.1: Total EU GHG emissions and removals (1990-2023), linear trajectories to EU targets, and Member 
States’ latest GHG emissions projections (2023–2050) 20.  

18 The EU GHG emission aggregate which better reflects the exact legal scope as provided by the European Climate Law can be 
obtained  by  adding  to  the  EU-27  total  domestic  GHG  emission,  including  LULUCF  net  emissions  or  removals,  the  EU-27 
emissions from international aviation and maritime transport regulated in the Union Law. For more details, see Chapter 2 of this 
staff working document. 
19 Approximated 2023 data could suggest a break to the declining trend in the LULUCF sink observed in recent years. However, 
the assessment takes into consideration the large uncertainty of these data and as it will possibly be subject to larger revisions. 
20 Notes:  (1)  Historical  GHG  emissions  and  removals  (1990-2023)  are  based  on  European  Environment  Agency’s  2024  GHG 
Inventory and Approximated emissions and removals. (2) Linear trajectories for GHG emissions and removals (2023-2050) are 
based on the legislated EU 2030 targets, while emissions and removals by 2050 reflect estimates from the different model-based 
analyses  supporting  the  “Delivering  the  European  Green  Deal”.  (3)  The  -55%  2030  target  (EU  Climate  Law)  considers  a 
contribution of removals of -225 MtCO2eq. 

14 

 
 
 
At Member State level, emissions in 2023 fell compared with 2022 in almost all Member States, 
with  very  large  emission  reductions  in  some.  They  went  down  by  more  than  20%  in  three 
Member States (-27% in Bulgaria, -26% in Sweden and -22% in Finland) and between 10% and 
20% in  five other Member States (-19% in  Estonia,  -16% in  Latvia,  -14% in  Croatia,  -12% in 
Greece and -10% in Germany). These falls  were mainly driven by less electricity generated by 
fossil  fuels  in  Bulgaria,  Germany,  Estonia  and  Greece,  by  the  enhancement  of  LULUCF  net 
removals  in  Finland  and  Latvia,  by  the  emission  reductions  in  industry  in  Sweden  and  in 
transport and waste in Croatia.  

The GHG emission intensity of the economy, defined as the ratio between EU GHG net domestic 
emissions  (i.e.  including  LULUCF  net  removals  and  excluding  international  maritime  and 
aviation  transport)  and  GDP,  fell  to  207  gCO2-eq/EUR  in  2023,  close  to  a  third  of  its  (Figure 
3.2.a),  the  steady  decline  in  the  GHG  emission  intensity  was  accompanied  by  a  convergence 
among Member States. The similar pattern is shown by the GHG emissions per capita, reaching 
in 2023 a record low of 6.4 tonnes of CO2 equivalent, although with a more gradual convergence 
among Member States (Figure 3.2.b). 

Figure 3.2: Average GHG emission intensity of GDP and GHG emissions per capita (1995-2023) 21  

Figure 3.2.a

Figure 3.2.b

In terms of sectors, emission reductions in the last three decades  were significant in the energy 
industry  (-40%,  or  -18.6  MtCO2eq  per  year  on  average,  y-avg),  in  the  fuel  combustion  in  the 

21 Source:  EU  GHG  net  emissions  based  on  2024  EU  GHG  inventory  (EEA)  and  approximated  EU  GHG  inventory  for  2023 
(EEA), Eurostat for the population [demo_pjan] and GDP at constant price (2015, [nama_10_gdp]). Shaded areas represent the 
standard  deviation  across  the  Member  States.  The  GHG  intensity  in  this  report  differs  from  the  ones  of  the  Air  Emissions 
Accounts (AEA). The source of data used for the emissions is the GHG inventories, which are based on the ‘territory principle’ 
(i.e.  emissions  are  assigned  to  the  country  where  the  emission  takes  place),  whereas  the  emissions  from  the  AEA  follows  the 
‘resident principle’ (i.e. being the final result of the production activity of resident producer units), which is also used in national 
accounts  (for  the  GDP).  It  has  been  preferred  here  to  use  GHG  inventories  to  keep  the  same  source  of  data  for  emissions 
throughout the report (in addition emissions from the AEA do not include the emissions from the LULUCF sector). 

15 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
manufacturing  industry  and  construction  (e.g.  iron  and  steel  production,  -54%,  or  -2.7 
MtCO2eq/y-avg)  and  in  the  industrial  processes  and  product  use  industries  (e.g.  chemical 
industry,  -69%  or  -3.6  MtCO2eq/y-avg;  metal  industry,  -50%,  or  -2.2  MtCO2eq/y-avg). 
Conversely,  emissions  in  the  transport  sector  have  increased,  especially  in  road  transportation 
(+20%, or 4.2 MtCO2eq/y-avg) although they have been slightly decreasing in the last ten years 
(see  Table  3.1).  Emission  reduction  in  the  agriculture  sector  (excluding  fuel  combustion)  has 
somewhat halted at the half-way, somewhat plateauing since 2010 22. Finally, the traditional role 
of natural sink of CO2 of the LULUCF sector, declined at a worrying speed in the since 2010 (-
33% or 10.4 MtCO2eq of loss net removals per year on average).  

Table 3.1: Change in EU’s GHG domestic emissions by sector over 1990-2022 and expected change by 2030  23. 

Based on the analysis supporting the ‘Delivering the European Green Deal’, in the years up to 
2030 the speed of reduction needs to significantly accelerate almost in all sectors compared with 
the progress achieved since 2010, particularly in transport (i.e. from an average annual reduction 
of    1  since  2010  to  24  MtCO2eq),  fuel  combustion  in  manufacturing  (i.e.  from  7  to  17 
MtCO2eq), and residential emissions (from 16 to 25 MtCO2eq), while LULUCF need to reverse 
the  last  decade’s  trend  in  order  to  meet  the  EU  -55%  reduction  target  by  2030.  In  the  case  of 
agriculture, the GHG projected emission reductions, based on Member  States reported existing 

22 https://www.eea.europa.eu/ims/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-agriculture 
23 Based on the 2024 GHG inventory data submitted by Member States. Ending values for 2030 based on the model results under 
the  MIX  policy  scenarios  for  delivering  the  European  Green  Deal  https://energy.ec.europa.eu/data-and-analysis/energy-
modelling/policy-scenarios-delivering-european-green-deal_en.  The  last  two  lines  refer  to  the  EU  GHG  emission  aggregate 
which  better  reflects  the  exact  legal  scope  as  provided  by  the  European  Climate  Law.  For  more  details,  see  Chapter  2.  The 
transport sector does not include emissions from international aviation and maritime activities. 

16 

MtCO2eqMtCO2eq%Δannual μΔ MtCO2eqMtCO2eq%Δannual μΔ MtCO2eq%Δannual μΔ MtCO2eq%Δannual μΔ MtCO2eq1 - Energy37413290-12%-22.52604-30%-36.7-21%-62.4-40%-115.91.A.1 - Energy Industries14421255-13%-9.3867-40%-18.6-31%-35.3-44%-41.9of which:1.A.1.a - Public Electricity and Heat Production12331084-12%-7.4738-40%-16.0-32%-31.51.A.2 - Manufacturing Industries and Construction721471-35%-12.5393-46%-10.6-17%-7.1-39%-17.2of which:1.A.2.a - Iron and Steel15293-39%-2.970-54%-2.7-26%-2.21.A.2.c - Chemicals9567-30%-1.453-44%-1.3-20%-1.21.A.2.f - Non-metallic minerals129100-22%-1.482-37%-1.5-19%-1.71.A.3 - Transport67281521%7.180320%4.2-1%-1.1-27%-24.4of which:1.A.3.b - Road Transportation62076824%7.476423%4.6-1%-0.41.A.4 - Other Sectors714652-9%-3.1475-33%-7.7-27%-16.1-47%-24.91.A.4.a - Commercial/Institutional172159-8%-0.7106-38%-2.1-33%-4.81.A.4.b - Residential450412-9%-1.9294-35%-5.0-28%-10.61.A.4.c - Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing9281-11%-0.575-19%-0.6-8%-0.62 - Industrial Processes and Product Use451365-19%-4.3292-35%-5.1-20%-6.6-11%-3.72.A - Mineral Industry134110-18%-1.299-26%-1.1-10%-1.02.B - Chemical Industry16277-53%-4.250-69%-3.6-34%-2.42.C - Metal Industry13478-42%-2.866-50%-2.2-15%-1.1   2.D,E,F,G,H - Other production21100376%3.976262%1.8-24%-2.23 - Agriculture483375-22%-5.4366-24%-3.8-2%-0.8-1%-0.5of which:3.1 - Livestock317249-22%-3.4243-23%-2.4-2%-0.54 - Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry-217-35162%-6.7-2369%-0.6-33%10.431%-8.25 - Waste management185137-26%-2.4110-41%-2.4-20%-2.5-17%-2.1Total domestic GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF)48674172-14%-353375-31%-48-19%-72-33%-124Total domestic GHG net emissions (including LULUCF)48674172-14%-353375-31%-48-19%-72-42%-158Total GHG net emissions (EU target scope)47363953-17%-393257-31%-48-18%-63-37%-132Total GHG net emissions (NDC scope)47003899-17%-403211-32%-48-18%-63-37%-132EU-272010compared to 19901990compared to 1990compared to 201020222030compared to 2022 
 
 
 
and additional policies and measures (including under the new CAP 2023-2027) are in line with 
the Fit-for-55 package. Nevertheless, further efforts are needed, in particular to contribute to the 
increased ambition of the 2040 target. 

3.2  DRIVERS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION REDUCTION SINCE 1990 
A combination of factors has helped the EU to reduce total domestic greenhouse gas emissions 
(excluding the LULUCF sector) by about 31% over the past three decades. Figure 3.3 shows an 
annual  breakdown  of  this  trend  into  factors  using  a  decomposition  analysis  with  an  extended 
Kaya  identity  24 .  The  underlying  methodology  follows  that  of  earlier  studies,  e.g.  by  the 
European  Environment  Agency 25.  As  with  all  methods  of  this  style,  the  effects  should  not  be 
understood as an actual causality but rather a useful indication of the drivers’ contribution. 

Without technological advances in energy efficiency and carbon intensity, i.e. holding all other 
factors  at  1990  level,  the  growth  in  GDP  (income  effect)  and  population  (population  effect) 
would  have  led  to  a  substantial  increase  in  GHG  emissions.  Economic  growth  would  have 
caused increase by 40% and population growth increase by 6 %. 

However, just the emission reduction from the decrease in primary energy use per unit of output 
generated (energy intensity effect) more than compensated this and reduced emissions by 51%. 
Compared with 1990, 45% less energy was needed to produce a unit of GDP in 2022. There are 
several drivers behind this efficiency gain. Better energy transformation processes, for example 
through  electrification,  have  happened.  For  example,  emission  intensity  of  metal  production 
dropped by 15% only from 2017 to 2021, intensity of non-metallic mineral production dropped 
by 13% in the same period. There is also a general shift to the less energy-hungry sectors – for 
example the share of whole industry in total gross value added decreased by 14% from 1995 to 
2021,  moreover  the  share  of  energy  intensive  industry  in  manufacturing  gross  value  added 
decreased by 17% in the same period. 

The second important driver was the carbon intensity effect, i.e. the volume of emissions from 
one  unit  of  produced  energy,  which  taken  individually,  reduced  emissions  by  25%.  The  fuel 
switch plays a crucial role here.  The share of solid  fossil fuels  in  energy  production decreased 
from 39% in 1990 to 17% in 2022, whereas the share of renewable and nuclear energy increased 
from 24% in 1990 to 55% in 2022. 

24 The Kaya identity is a mathematical identity stating that the total GHG emission level can be expressed as the product of four 
factors: human population, GDP per capita, energy intensity (per unit of GDP), and carbon intensity (emissions per unit of energy 
consumed). 
25 The methodology of the Logarithm Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method and the formula itself can be found in the EEA report 
No 03/2020 on trends and drivers of EU greenhouse gas emissions. 

17 

 
 
Figure 3.3: Drivers of total GHG emissions cumulated over 1990-2022 26 

To set these achievements into perspective, Figure 3.4 combines this assessment of past emission 
trends  with  a  glance  into  the  future.  Based  on  the  European  Commission’s  central  scenario 
supporting the Fit for 55 legislative package, a faster pace is needed in this decade to achieve the 
EU  2030  target.    As  in  the  last  three  decades,  the  modelling  suggests  the  largest  emission 
reductions  will  come  from  a  substantially  lower  energy  intensity  (energy  intensity  should  be 
lower by 25% in 2030) leading to decrease of total emissions by 16% and a less carbon-intense 
primary  energy  consumption  (energy  supply  emissions  should  be  lower  by  21%)  leading  to 
decrease of total emissions by 13%. Overall, energy-related emissions are expected to decrease 
faster than those from other sources as implied by the slightly positive non-energy effect. 

Figure 3.4: Effects on total GHG emissions between 1990-2022 and 2022-2030 based on the modelling for the 2030 
target (in % of 1990 emissions) 27 

26 Data sources: EU inventories to the UNFCC, AMECO, Eurostat energy balances. 
27 The  remaining  total  emissions  excluding  LULUCF  as  shown  in  the  chart  is  in  line  with  EU’s  net  emissions  target  of  57% 
mitigation. 

18 

 
 
 
 
3.3  PROGRESS TOWARDS CLIMATE NEUTRALITY 
In  2023,  the  Climate  Action  Progress  Report 28 provided,  for  the  first  time,  an  assessment  of 
progress under the European Climate Law 29 including the collective progress made by Member 
States towards the EU’s goal to achieve climate-neutrality by 2050 30. The assessment looked at 
progress on several aspects and from several sources, while taking into account the complexity 
inherent in the many possible paths to achieve a net-zero and resilient economy 31. 

Overall,  the  report  concluded  that  the  level  of  progress  by  Member  States  in  recent  years  fell 
significantly short of the effort required over the coming decades to meet both the medium and 
the long-term  EU climate targets.  In particular  based on the available information, the level  of 
progress  towards  the  EU  climate-neutrality  objective  appeared  insufficient  for  Poland,  Ireland, 
Latvia,  Malta,  and  Croatia,  and,  to  a  lesser  extent,  for  Austria,  Estonia,  Czechia,  Cyprus,  Italy 
and Romania. 

In  December  2023,  based  on  that  assessment,  the  Commission  issued  county-specific 
recommendations 32 to  the  above  Member  States,  except  for  Romania,  which  in  the  meantime 
had  updated  their  GHG  projections  in  the  context  of  the  draft  update  NECP  submission.  The 
Commission  urged  Member States to  rapidly accelerate action by making tangible progress  on 
planned policies and by taking additional measures. Several  Member States also  faced sectoral 
weaknesses that needed to be remedied without further delay. 

All the concerned Member States had notified the Commission on how they intend to address the 
recommendations.  On  13  June,  Latvia  informed  the  Commission  that  in  the  context  of  the 
updated  National  Energy  and  Climate  Plan  (NECP)  they  will  include  increasing  climate 
mitigation  ambitions,  supported  by  additional  measures,  and  levered  by  new  support  funding 
mechanisms  at  EU level.  In addition,  Latvia will start  updating its national  long-term  strategy, 
which will consider the Commission’s recommendations to increase the ambition and quality of 
the strategy, including on the critical role of LULUCF removals. On 18 June, Austria replied to 
the  Commission  listing  recent  measures  taken  by  the  government  to  mitigate  climate  change, 
including  CO2  pricing  introduced  in  October  2022  for  all  fossil  fuel  consumption  outside  EU 
ETS  sectors,  the  environmental  tax  reform,  several  measures  in  the  field  of  mobility,  in 
renewables development, and to support a just transition. Austria also reiterated its objective to 
reach climate neutrality by 2040. On 4 September, Cyprus informed the Commission that a new 
long-term low-emission development strategy is being prepared in the context of the finalisation 
of  its  National  Energy  and  Climate  Plan  (NECP)  update,  without  additional  details.  On  5 
September, Ireland confirmed its support to the EU climate-neutrality goal. In its reply, Ireland 
referred  to  the  Climate  Action  Plan  2024  and  listed  several  concrete  measures  in  the  area  of 
agriculture  and  LULUCF.  On  20  September,  Estonia  informed  the  Commission  that  new 

28 COM/2023/653 final 
29 Articles 6 to 8 of the European Climate Law (EUR-Lex - 32021R1119 - EN - EUR-Lex (europa.eu)). 
30 The EU climate-neutrality objective, set out in Article 2(1) of Regulation (EU) 2021/1119, is achieved when EU-wide GHG 
emissions and removals regulated in EU law are balanced within the EU at the latest by 2050, reducing emissions to net zero. The 
EU shall aim to achieve negative emissions thereafter. 
31 The  assessment  was  based  on  the  detailed  analysis  provided  in  Chapter  5  of  the  staff  working  document  –  ‘Technical 
information’ (SWD(2023) 339 final). 
32 Article 7(2) of the European Climate Law. 

19 

 
 
legislation, currently in  preparation, will set in law  GHG emission targets, providing clarity on 
how Estonia would reach climate neutrality  by 2050. On 25  September,  Malta  signalled to  the 
Commission that in May 2024 a new Climate Action Act was published providing for the set-up 
of  an  ad-hoc  authority  to  focus  on  climate  actions.  On  26  September,  Czechia  informed  the 
Commission that the final updated NECP has addressed all the recommendations, including the 
consistency  of  Czechia’s  measures  with  the  EU’s  climate-neutrality  objective.  In  addition, 
Czechia  has  started  to  update  its  national  long-term  strategy.  Italy  and  Croatia  informed  the 
Commission that  they  have  made  – or will make, in  the case of Croatia –  reference to  climate 
neutrality  in  their  final  updated  National  Energy  and  Climate  Plan  (NECP),  which  the 
Commission is currently evaluating. Finally, on 4 October, Poland replied that the final version 
of  the  updated  NECP,  which  was,  at  the  time  of  preparing  this  report,  still  under  public 
consultation,  will  include  additional  measures  accelerating  emission  reductions  (i.e.  -50.4%  by 
2030).  The  letter  referred  to  initiatives  in  the  transport  sector  (e.g.  urban  mobility, 
electromobility),  LULUCF  (e.g.  increased  forest  cover  and  improved  forest  management),  and 
agriculture  sector  (e.g.  carbon  farming  and  nutrient  management).  In  a  year’s  time,  the 
Commission  will  reassess  the  situation  based  on  the  information  included  in  the  2025  NECP 
progress report. 

This section presents an update of the Climate-Neutrality Dashboard, a set of indicators used to 
examine  past,  present  and  future  developments  along  multiple  dimensions  and  across  sectors. 
The  aim  is  to  ensure  continuity  in  tracking  progress  towards  the  achievement  of  our  common 
net-zero emissions objective, especially in this decisive decade for climate action. 
In  order  to  improve  our  understanding  of  the  underlying  developments,  the  dashboard  now 
includes the share of renewable on  gross final  energy consumption, in  line with  the renewable 
2030 target. In addition, a set of seven new complementary indicators, or levers, is introduced to 
put some light into the level of GHG emissions in Member States (see Table 3.2). Each indicator 
characterises  one  sector  –  energy,  industry,  transport,  buildings,  waste,  and  agriculture,  by 
looking,  beyond  emissions,  at  the  critical  driving  forces  or  factors.  The  last  indicator  is  cross-
sectoral and shows investment effort. Averages for 2018-2022 are used for all indicators, except 
waste  prevention,  which  is  based  on  averages  for  2017-2021,  because  data  for  2022  were  not 
available at the time of publication. 

Table 3.2: Climate-Neutrality Dashboard, complementary indicators. 

Indicator 
Zero emission energy 

Greening industry 

Sustainable mobility 

Energy-efficient buildings 

Description 
The  indicator  presents  the  share  of  renewables  and 
nuclear  power 
in  gross  electricity  and  heat 
production. A high share indicates lower emissions, 
whereas  a  low  share  means  dependency  on  fossil 
fuels (mainly coal and natural gas). 
Electrification and utilisation of renewable energy is 
the path towards climate neutrality in manufacturing 
and  construction.  Thus,  the  share  of  these  two  in 
final energy consumption is shown by this indicator. 
Average  CO2  emissions  of  new  cars  sold  indicate 
the  share  of  electric  and  low-emission  vehicles  on 
the  market  and,  thus,  future  emissions  of  the  car 
fleet. 
The final energy consumption of buildings per floor 
area is a telling indicator for the building sector. The 
indicator  covers  households  as  well  as  commercial 
and public service buildings. Energy consumption is 

Source 
EEA. Greenhouse gas emissions by source sector 
(env_air_gge)  
EUROSTAT. Complete energy balances (nrg_bal_c)  

EUROSTAT. Complete energy balances (nrg_bal_c). 

EUROSTAT. Average CO2 emissions per km from new 
passenger cars (sdg_12_30). 

EUROSTAT. Complete energy balances (nrg_bal_c).  
BSO. EU Building Stock Observatory. Available here.  
EUROSTAT. Cooling and heating degree days by 
country - annual data (nrg_chdd_a)  

20 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Waste prevention 

Sustainable consumption 

Climate investment 

and 

production 

also adjusted by the number of heating and cooling 
days. 
Waste  prevention  sits  at  the  top  of  the  waste 
hierarchy  as  the  most  preferred  way  to  reduce  the 
environmental  impacts  of  waste.  This  indicator 
shows  municipal  waste  generation  per  capita  as  a 
key figure in the sector. 
A large fraction of emissions in agriculture is due to 
bovine  meat 
consumption. 
Consumption of this meat per capita is thus a good 
indication  of  sustainable  consumer  behaviour  and 
potentially  the  country’s  emissions.  Keep  in  mind 
that international trade also plays  an  important  role 
here. 
Climate-related  investments  as  a  share  of  gross 
domestic  product  (GDP)  show  efforts  made  across 
all sectors. The indicator includes private investment 
related  to  climate  change  mitigation  (for  example, 
renewable  energy  sources,  electric  vehicles  or 
thermal  insulation).  It  covers  all  steps  in  the  value 
chain. 

EUROSTAT. Municipal waste by waste management 
operations (env_wasmun)  

FAO. Food Balances. Available here.  
EUROSTAT. Usually resident population on 1 January 
(demo_urespop)  

Investments in climate change mitigation by NACE Rev. 
2 activity (env_ac_ccminv) - to be released soon 

The values for ‘zero  emission  energy’ in the power sector, range from 11% in Malta, 13% in 
Cyprus, 14% in Poland to 70% in Denmark, 86% in France, and 91% in Sweden. The indicator 
also  shows  an  expected  pattern.  The  higher  the  share  of  zero-emission  energy,  the  lower  the 
GHG  intensity  of  the  GDP  the  country  has.  Sweden  is  a  top  scorer  –  it  has  the  lowest  GHG 
intensity  of  its  total  GDP  and  the  highest  share  of  zero-emission  energy  in  its  power  sector. 
Nevertheless, the correlation is not absolute, and there are some outliers 33. 

The greening industry indicator has a similar pattern but a slightly weaker correlation. Values 
range from 24% in the Netherlands, 30% in Croatia, 31% in Romania up to 66% in Malta, 68% 
in  Finland  and 79% in  Sweden.  Again,  Ireland and the Netherlands have a low share of green 
industry  and  low  GHG  intensity  of  GDP.  The  opposite  case  is  in  Greece,  Estonia,  and  Latvia, 
which have a high share of green industry but high GHG intensity of GDP. Sweden is premiant 
once again. 

On  the  sustainable  mobility,  markets  with  the  lowest  emissions  of  new  car  fleets  are  the 
Netherlands  (average  emissions  107  gCO2/km),  Sweden  (112  gCO2/km)  and  Denmark  (113 
gCO2/km). On the opposite side are Latvia (147 gCO2/km), Cyprus (148 gCO2/km) and Estonia 
(150  gCO2/km).  Sustainable  mobility  has  the  strongest  correlation  between  the  indicator  score 
and GHG intensity of the whole economy, with almost no significant outliers. 
The  lowest  energy  consumption  of  buildings  34 is  in  Finland  (2.3  gCO2/m2),  Bulgaria  and 
Estonia  (both  2.9  gCO2/m2).  The  most  consuming  buildings  are  in  Luxembourg  (7.8  g 
CO2/m2),  Ireland  (9.0  gCO2/m2)  and  Malta  (10.2  gCO2/m2).  There  is  almost  no  direct 
correlation between the indicator and GHG intensity, but  it still shows interesting potential for 
reducing  emissions  through  improved  efficiency,  including  electrification,  and  behavioural 
change. 

33 The most obvious cases are Malta, Ireland, and the Netherlands, which have a low share of zero-emission energy and low GHG 
intensity of GDP. These countries can be economically productive without zero-emission energy, meaning that energy does not 
play an essential role in GDP generation. 
34 The values are controlled for the weather – the number of heating and cooling days in the country. 

21 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Waste  prevention  shows  the  potential  for  low  value  of  emissions  in  the  waste  sector.  The 
highest  waste  production  is  in  Austria  (835  kg/capita),  Denmark  (812  kg/capita)  and 
Luxembourg (795 kg/capita). On the other hand, the lowest production is in Romania (283 kg), 
Poland  (346  kg)  and  Estonia  (388  kg).  The  correlation  of  this  indicator  and  GHG  intensity  is 
strong  and  negative.  It  means  that  countries  with  low  GHG  intensity  tends  to  have  a  higher 
volume  of  municipal  waste.  Sweden  is  a  good  example  of  country  with  low  production  of 
municipal waste and at the same time low GHG intensity of economy. 

Bovine meat consumption is a proxy indicator for the whole agri-food patterns of each country. 
The  highest  consumption  is  in  Luxembourg  (31  kg/capita),  Sweden  and  Portugal  (both  22 
kg/capita).  The  lowest  consumption  is  in  Poland  (0.1  kg/capita),  Bulgaria  (4  kg/capita)  and 
Romania (5 kg/capita). There is a strong negative correlation between bovine meat consumption 
and  GHG  intensity.  Member  States  with  low  GHG  intensity,  such  as  Sweden,  Denmark  or 
Luxembourg,  also  have  high  bovine  meat  consumption.  In  contrast,  countries  with  high  GHG 
intensity,  like  Bulgaria  or  Poland,  have  the  lowest  bovine  meat  consumption.  Please  note  that 
major net importers (such as Malta, Greece, and Portugal) have lower agricultural emissions than 
consumption of bovine meat indicates. On the other hand, emissions from net exporters (such as 
Ireland, Denmark, Poland, or Lithuania) also cover consumption in different countries. 

Climate  mitigation  investment  shows  a  negative  correlation  with  GHG  intensity.  It  indicates 
that  Member  States  with  low  GHG  intensity  have  already  made  substantial  investments  to 
achieve climate targets in the past, and Member States with high GHG intensity still need these 
investments.  The  lowest  investment  activity  is  in  Ireland  and  Cyprus  (both  0.1%  of  GDP), 
Luxembourg (0.2%). Denmark and Latvia (both 1.6%), and Lithuania (1.3%), show the highest 
investments. Denmark could be considered as a green investor – its GHG intensity is one of the 
lowest  in  the  EU,  but  the  investment  rate  is  still  the  highest.  Lithuania  and  Latvia  are,  on  the 
other hand, countries with high GHG intensity but also high investment rates. We could expect 
a substantial decrease in GHG intensity in the future there. There are also some poor-performing 
countries in both metrics, such as Greece and Cyprus, where additional investments are needed. 

Overall,  the  climate-neutrality  dashboard  shows  that,  compared  with  2023  edition,  around  two 
third  of  the  indicators  have  improved,  while  only  a  fifth  have  worsened.  The  most  sizeable 
progress  is  in  the  historic  part,  due  to  the  strong  reduction  in  GHG  net  emissions  in  2023. 
Progress towards medium- and long-term objective is mixed, partly due to the fact that less than 
half of Member States updated their GHG projections in 2024. Among the seven complementary 
indicators,  the  ‘sustainable  mobility’  and  the  ‘zero  emissions  energy’  levers  show  the  broadest 
improvement, while progress for the ‘sustainable consumption’ indicator is mixed.  

At  Member  States  level,  across  the  different  indicators,  the  dashboard  highlights  the  most 
significant  improvements  for  Estonia  and  Latvia,  which  in  2023  have  received  specific 
recommendations  under  the  European  Climate  Law  due  their  insufficient  progress  towards  the 
Union’s  climate-neutrality  objective,  as  well  as  for  Finland  and  Bulgaria.  Among  the  other 
Member States that received climate-neutrality recommendations in 2023, progress is noticeable 
also for Italy and Austria. 

22 

 
 
 
Table 3.3: Climate neutrality dashboard. Historical performance 35 

35 Note  to  the  table:  (1)  Historical  GHG  emissions  and  removals  (1990-2022)  are  based  on  EEA’s  2023  GHG  Inventory  and 
Approximated emissions and removals. Emissions from international aviation and maritime transport activities are not included. 
Contributions by sector are calculated as the ratio between the change in emissions of the sector between 2015 and 2023 and the 
level  of  total  GHG  emissions  in  2015.  The  sum  of  contributions  is  therefore  by  construction  equal  to  the  growth  rate  of  total 
GHG  emissions  between  2015  and  2023.  (2)  Including  agriculture  CO2  emissions.  (3)  GHG  intensity  of  GDP  (gCO2-
eq/EUR2015)  and  GHG  per  capita  (tCO2-eq)  use  net  GHG  emissions  (i.e.  including  LULUCF  and  excluding  international 
aviation).  Real  GDP  and  population  data  from  Eurostat.  The  GHG  intensity  in  this  report  differs  from  the  ones  of  the  Air 
Emissions Accounts (AEA). The source of data used for the emissions is the GHG inventories, which are based on the ‘territory 
principle’, whereas the emissions from the AEA follows the ‘resident principle’, which is also used in national accounts (for the 
GDP). It has been preferred here to use GHG inventories to keep the same source of data for emissions throughout the report (in 
addition emissions from the AEA do not include the emissions from the LULUCF sector). The difference is around 10% at the 
EU level but is larger for some Member States (Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia). 

23 

2023-19902023-20222023-20192023-2015PowerIndustryTransportBuildings(2)AgricultureWasteLULUCFGHG intensity of GDP (2023)GHG intensity of GDP(2023-2015, % change)GHG emissions per capita(2023)GHG emissions per capita(2023-2015, % change)Austria-5%-7%-23%-12%-4%-2%-4%-3%0%-1%2%169-20%7.0-17%Belgium-31%-4%-15%-16%-5%-5%-2%-4%0%0%0%210-26%8.4-20%Bulgaria-56%-27%-20%-32%-30%1%2%-1%0%-1%-3%627-45%5.5-26%Croatia-30%-14%-13%-13%-4%0%-1%-1%-3%-9%4%304-33%4.7-5%Cyprus57%0%-1%6%1%2%1%0%1%1%0%330-26%9.2-3%Czechia-45%-13%-20%-14%-19%0%3%-1%-1%0%4%527-26%9.7-17%Denmark-50%-6%-16%-21%-12%-3%-2%-3%-1%0%-1%119-35%6.6-25%Estonia-67%-19%-35%-38%-33%-3%2%-1%1%0%-3%466-49%8.5-40%Finland-18%-22%-21%-6%-20%-6%-3%-3%-1%-2%28%170-14%7.1-8%France-32%-7%-14%-16%-4%-6%-2%-5%-2%0%4%146-23%5.2-18%Germany-47%-10%-15%-24%-16%-3%-2%-3%-1%0%1%204-30%8.0-27%Greece-35%-9%-19%-28%-29%-1%1%0%0%1%-1%339-35%6.3-25%Hungary-48%-9%-19%-15%-9%-3%3%-4%-1%0%-1%339-32%5.0-13%Ireland1%-6%-7%-7%-6%-1%0%-2%-1%0%2%138-42%11.5-18%Italy-31%-7%-5%-10%-8%-3%0%-4%0%0%5%201-17%6.1-8%Latvia-8%-16%37%13%-7%0%0%0%0%0%20%439-3%6.719%Lithuania-71%-3%-14%1%-7%-10%9%1%-4%-3%15%259-20%4.33%Luxembourg-45%-7%-32%-29%-3%-5%-16%-2%0%0%-4%110-40%10.6-40%Malta-19%-6%0%-1%-4%1%5%-5%0%2%0%137-36%3.9-20%Netherlands-36%-7%-21%-27%-16%-2%-1%-5%-1%-1%-1%177-38%8.2-31%Poland-29%-8%-13%-9%-11%-1%7%-3%0%0%-1%554-32%8.6-6%Portugal-29%-8%-21%-27%-20%-5%3%-1%0%0%-4%219-38%4.4-28%Romania-74%-7%-14%-14%-18%-6%7%0%-1%0%3%276-35%3.1-10%Slovakia-55%-2%-17%-18%-6%-6%2%-1%0%0%-7%309-30%5.4-18%Slovenia0%-6%-12%-17%-7%-1%0%-2%0%-1%-4%295-34%6.8-19%Spain-10%-8%-13%-20%-16%-6%2%0%0%0%0%187-30%4.7-23%Sweden-85%-26%-69%201%-115%-180%-473%-76%-12%-59%1114%6162%0.3178%EU27-38%-9%-14%-18%-13%-3%0%-3%-1%0%2%206-28%6.4-19%GHG intensity and GDP per capita (3)Total net GHG emissions (% change)Historic data(1)Sector performance (2023-2015, contribution to change) 
 
 
 
Table 3.4: Climate-neutrality dashboard – levers and projections 36 

36 Note to table: (4) GHG emission projections submitted in  2023 and updated in 2024 by Member States under Art. 18 of the 
Governance  Regulation  considering  additional  measures  (WAM).  EU  Population  in  2050  is  based  on  the  latest  Eurostat 
population  projections.  Agriculture  and  forest  land  are  based  on  the  Eurostat  land use  statistics.  (5)  The  overshoot  vs.  a  linear 
trajectory compares, for each Member State, the cumulative projected net GHG emissions (including LULUCF) between 2022 
and  2050  with  a  linear  trajectory  starting  from  the  2022  emission  level  to  zero  by  2050.  The  overshoot  against  an  indicative 
benchmark  compares  the  cumulative  projected  GHG  emissions  (excluding  LULUCF)  with  an  indicative  pathway  to  climate 
neutrality based on the scenarios proposed by the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, and then  distributed 
across  Member  States  according  to  the  country’s  share  of  EU  emissions  in  the  core  policy  scenario  supporting  the  initiatives 
delivering the European Green Deal. Target dates to achieve climate neutrality as for the national long-term strategies, the NECP 
progress reports or, in grey, from other unofficial sources (Net Zero Tracker). 

24 

MS projected net GHG by 2030(tonnes of CO2 eq. per capita)ESR target vs MS projections(to 2005 level, ppt)LULUCF target vs MS projections(tCO2eq/Km2 of land)Share of gross final consumption of energy from renewable sourcesZero-Emission Energy(share of RES and nuclear in gross electricityGreening Industry(share of RES and electricity in FEC in manufacturing and construction)Sustainable mobility(average CO2 emissions of new cars sold)Energy efficient buildings(FEC in buildings, gOE per m2*HDD and CDD)Waste prevention(municipal waste generation per capita, kg)Climate investment(climate change mitigation purposes, as share of GDP)Sustainable consumption(bovine meet consumption per capita, kg)MS projected net GHG by 2050(tonnes of CO2 eq. per capita)Overshoot vs. linear trajectory net GHG emissions 2023-2050Overshoot vs. BenchmarkTotal GHG emissions 2023-2050Target year for climate neutrality (NECPR, nLTS or other sources)Legal Status of long term target(based on https://zerotracker.net/)Austria5.3-6134%68%48%1333.78350.8%142.321%19%2040In lawBelgium6.8-4-414%62%38%1294.97420.8%123.153%21%2050In policy documentBulgaria5.9-12-319%48%38%1462.94270.5%43.626%66%2050Declaration / pledgeCroatia5.20-9229%58%29%1355.04320.7%153.463%71%2050In policy documentCyprus6.7-234119%13%36%1483.46490.1%123.731%56%2050In policy documentCzechia7.5-6-3218%37%39%1465.75190.5%114.313%33%2030In policy documentDenmark4.2-614042%70%42%1133.68121.6%222.814%3%2050Declaration / pledgeEstonia7.7-10-10038%46%51%1502.93880.8%93.329%46%2050Declaration / pledgeFinland0.8-41348%69%68%1172.35730.7%17-2.3-101%-10%2035In lawFrance4.6-14-2520%85%42%1215.65550.8%223.664%63%2050In lawGermany5.3-9-9921%45%39%1344.46270.5%141.8-9%-4%2045In lawGreece5.613523%36%48%1293.65100.2%155.655%70%2050In lawHungary5.4-6-2715%50%40%1446.33941.1%64.487%66%2050In lawIreland8.9-17-2413%38%35%1249.06440.1%196.448%35%2050In lawItaly4.5-3-3719%36%42%1315.04940.3%163.532%52%2050In policy documentLatvia6.6-2-6743%58%67%1474.84391.3%65.633%8%2050In policy documentLithuania2.505330%57%42%1474.64711.6%62.821%30%2050In policy documentLuxembourg7.061214%52%45%1417.87950.2%310.8-6%-4%2050In lawMalta4.2-65-4613%11%63%11810.26580.4%193.9142%111%2050In policy documentNetherlands6.8-93715%28%25%1075.65160.3%174.853%38%2050In lawPoland9.1-11-11817%14%40%1475.43460.6%08.084%78%2030In policy documentPortugal2.81313935%51%54%1184.35060.4%220.3-18%22%2050In lawRomania3.3-176224%49%31%1366.22830.7%53.5103%77%2050In policy documentSlovakia5.2-11-4218%66%40%1465.34380.5%73.882%62%2050In lawSlovenia5.2-111725%62%47%1405.24920.5%120.0-1%12%2050In policy documentSpain3.27-1522%62%43%1353.24670.3%132.831%47%2050In lawSweden-0.4-6-1866%91%79%1123.04251.1%22-1.3-473%27%2045In lawEU27 (MS aggr. proj.)5.0-6-2223%55%43%1303.95110.6%143.332%39%2050In lawClimate-neutrality objectives and projections(5)GHG emission projections, levers, and future challenges(4)Climate-neutrality levers2030 objectives and projections 
 
 
 
 
3.4  ADDITIONAL GREENHOUSE GASES INDICATORS 

Since 2005, there has been a clear decline in GHG intensity of GDP, and similar but to a lesser 
extent, in net GHG emissions per capita for all EU Member States, except for Latvia 37 (Figure 
3.5.a and Figure 3.5.b) 38. 

Countries with higher emission intensity of GDP ratios in 2005 (e.g. Bulgaria, Poland, Czechia, 
Romania,  Estonia,  and  Slovakia)  experienced  the  most  significant  reductions,  leading  to  a 
convergence  towards  the  EU  average.  Figure  3.5.b  show  a  similar  patter  for  the  emissions  per 
capita rates, with a sizable group of countries with emissions above 10 tonnes of CO2 equivalent 
per capita in 2005, moving closer to the EU average of 6 tCO2-eq in 2023. Nonetheless, in 2023, 
Poland and Czechia ranked among the top five for the two indicators, while Bulgaria showed the 
highest GHG intensity of GDP (above 620 grammes of CO2 equivalent per Euro of GDP), and 
Ireland  was  the  highest  per  capita  emitter  among  the  EU  Member  States  (above  12  tonnes  per 
capita). 

Figure  3.5:  Greenhouse  gas  emissions  intensity  (i.e.  the  ratio  between  GHG  emissions  and  GDP,  gCO2-eq./ 
EUR2015)  and  greenhouse  gas  emissions  per  capita  in  the  EU  and  its  Member  States  in  2005  and  changes  to 
2023 39  

Figure 3.5.a GHG intensity of GDP 

Figure 3.5.b GHG per capita 

In  2023,  domestic  transport  surpassed  the  energy  supply  as  the  largest  contributor  to  total  EU 
GHG emissions (24% versus 23%). Adding emissions from international aviation and maritime, 
bring  the  emissions  from  transport  activities  close  to  a  third  of  the  total  EU  emissions  40 . 

37 Due to a declining LULUCF sink. 
38 Figures use net GHG emissions, including LULUCF and excluding international transport emissions. 
39 Source:  EU  GHG  net  emissions  based  on  2024  EU  GHG  inventory  (EEA)  and  approximated  EU  GHG  inventory  for  2023 
(EEA), Eurostat for the population [demo_pjan] and GDP at constant price (2015,[nama_10_gdp].  
40 Emissions from international aviation and navigation as reported by Member States according to the UNFCCC GHG inventory 
(i.e. bunker approach). However, only around 50% of those emissions are currently estimated to be covered by the EU target (see 
Chapter 2). 

25 

 
 
 
 
 
Transport and Energy are closely followed by the industry sector (19%) when the energy use in 
manufacturing  industries  (11%)  and  emissions  from  industrial  process  and  use  (8%)  are  taken 
together (Figure 3.6.b). 

Figure 3.6: EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions by sector (1990-2023) and in % of total emissions (2023) 41 

Figure 3.6.a 

Figure 3.6.b 

Figure 3.7: EU Member States greenhouse gas emissions by sector 2023 (in % of total emissions)  42 

Figure 3.7.a 

Figure 3.7.b 

41 The sectors used correspond to the following IPCC sectors: Energy: 1.A.1, 1.A.5, 1.B and 1.C; Energy use in manufacturing 
industries:  1.A.2:  Industrial  processes  and  product  use:  2;  Transport  includes  both  domestic  (1.A.3)  and  international  (1.D.1, 
bunker  approach);  Buildings:  1.A.4,  Agriculture:  3,  Waste:  5.  The  sub-sectoral  distribution  within  the  Energy,  Domestic 
Transport, Buildings and Agriculture sectors is based on the 2022 shares. 
42 Industry includes both the Energy use in manufacturing industries: 1.A.2 and Industrial processes and product use: 2; Buildings 
includes CO2 emissions in agriculture. 

26 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Among all the EU Member States, in 2023, GHG emissions from the energy sector were highest 
in  Estonia  (50%  as  a  percentage  of  total  GHG  emissions),  followed  with  some  distance  by 
Poland (40%) and Malta (38%) (Figure 3.7.a). Emissions from industry were relatively high in 
Slovakia and Austria (37%). The transport sector’s contribution to GHG emissions stood out in 
Luxembourg  (53%).  Ireland  and  Denmark  had  the  highest  shares  of  GHG  emissions  from 
agriculture  among  all Member States  (36%  and  29%, respectively),  followed by Lithuania and 
Latvia  (22%).  For  Sweden,  and  with  some  distance  also  for  Romania,  the  LULUCF  sink  was 
significant in relation to the countries’ respective GHG emissions. 

Table 3.5: Total GHG emission per Member States (including/excluding LULUCF and international transport)  43   

43 The  last  two  lines  refer  to  the  EU  GHG  emission  aggregate  which  better  reflects  the  exact  legal  scope  as  provided  by  the 
European Climate Law. For more details, see Chapter 2. 

27 

19902005201520232023-199019902005201520232023-199019902005201520232023-1990Belgium14614511999-32%14314411899-31%159173142129-19%Bulgaria99626145-54%81465336-56%82475336-56%Czechia201150130108-46%192142122105-45%193143123106-45%Denmark72685040-45%78735039-50%83785542-50%Germany1251988899674-46%1284996892678-47%13031027923710-46%Estonia40191811-72%35161912-67%36172013-65%Ireland557161550%607766611%618069645%Greece1041379671-32%1021339266-35%11314510177-32%Spain287438333276-4%253392287228-10%2704293262710%France539550454373-31%521497417352-32%539522441373-31%Croatia32312623-29%26232118-30%26232119-29%Italy522596443384-27%519562401360-31%527577415376-29%Cyprus698958%598957%611101062%Latvia26111110-62%1451113-8%1561213-14%Lithuania48222018-62%43181212-71%43191313-70%Luxembourg1313108-39%1312107-45%1314119-33%Hungary95776254-43%92715648-48%92725749-47%Malta3322-19%3322-19%45710166%Netherlands223215194143-36%228221200147-36%268282251191-29%Austria79937968-14%67757364-5%68777566-3%Poland476402383353-26%447351349317-29%449353352321-29%Portugal59866853-10%66906447-29%69936953-23%Romania257151117105-59%2301206859-74%2311206959-74%Slovenia19211715-22%141317140%141318150%Slovakia73514137-50%65463629-55%65473629-55%Finland71705541-43%48454239-18%51484542-18%Sweden71665344-38%201613-85%2424910-56%EU-274867454438113119-36%4650419634862862-38%4807444637213105-35%         EU-27 Net GHG emissions (EU target scope)4736432736072980-37%         EU-27 Net GHG emissions (EU NDC scope)4700427235622937-38%Total GHG emissions, excl. LULUCF, excl. international transportTotal net GHG emissions, incl. LULUCF, excl. international transportTotal net GHG emissions, incl. LULUCF, incl. international transport 
 
 
 
 
 
4  TRACKING PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EU’S NDC 
SETTING ITS 2030 TARGET UNDER THE UNFCCC 
ENHANCED TRANSPARENCY FRAMEWORK 

With  the  Expert  Review  Team  (ERT)  conclusions  that  the  EU  and  its  Member  State  shall  be 
deemed to have met their commitments under Article 3, paragraph 1 bis, of the Kyoto Protocol 
second  commitment  period;  it is  now  time  to  move  on  to  the  implementation  of  the  Enhanced 
Transparency Framework under the Paris Agreement. 

The  Enhanced  Transparency  Framework  (ETF),  adopted  under  the  Paris  Agreement,  aims  at 
building  mutual  trust  and  confidence  and  at  promoting  the  effective  implementation  of  the 
Agreement. It builds on the transparency arrangements under the United Nations Convention on 
Climate  Change  (UNFCCC),  and  its  purpose  is  to  provide  a  clear  understanding  of  climate 
change  action  and  of  support  provided  and  received.  Information  reported  under  the  Enhanced 
Transparency  Framework  is  of  particular  importance  for  the  Global  Stocktake,  which 
periodically  takes  stock  of  the  implementation  of  the  Paris  Agreement.  The  modalities, 
procedures  and  guidelines  (MPGs)  for  the  Enhanced  Transparency  Framework,  adopted  in 
decision 18/CMA.1 in 2018, specify the information which is to be provided by Parties in their 
Biennial  Transparency  Reports  (BTRs).  They  also  provide  the  rules  for  the  technical  expert 
review  of  this  information  and  for  the  Facilitative,  Multilateral  Consideration  of  Progress 
(FMCP). Further details  on the reporting of this information,  including  the outline of the BTR 
and  tables  for  electronic  reporting,  were  adopted  in  decision  5/CMA.3  in  2021.  Tables  for 
electronic  reporting  include  Common  Reporting  Tables  (CRT)  for  greenhouse  gas  inventory 
information  and  Common  Tabular  Formats  (CTF).  The  latter  are  used  for  the  reporting  of 
information  necessary  to  track  progress  in  implementing  and  achieving  Nationally  Determined 
Contributions  (NDCs),  and  information  on  support  to  developing  countries.  The  first  biennial 
transparency report, including CRT and CTF tables, is to be submitted by 31 December 2024 at 
the latest. 

On 17th October 2023, the Council approved the submission of an updated nationally determined 
contribution  (NDC)  of  the  EU  and  its  member  states  to  the  United  Nations  Framework 
Convention  on  Climate  Change  (UNFCCC).    The  EU  and  its  MS  raised  their  ambition  to  a 
greenhouse gas emissions reduction target of at least 55% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. 

The National Inventory Report is a key component of the BTR, as it will be the EU’s indicator 
for tracking progress towards the NDC. The MPGs specify that this report may be submitted as a 
stand-alone report or as a component of the BTR. They also specify that the National Inventory 
Report (NIR) consists of a National Inventory Document (NID) and of the CRT. The outline for 
the National Inventory Documents is defined in decision 5/CMA.3, and it is similar to the outline 
for  National  Inventory  Reports  which  are  submitted  by  Parties  listed  in  Annex  I  to  the 
Convention. The EU will continue submitting its National Inventory Document as a standalone 
report, thus reporting separate reports. 

The BTRs play a crucial role in tracking the progress made towards the 2030 target. To this end, 
the chapter on ‘information necessary to track progress made in implementing and achieving the 
NDC’  contains,  inter  alia,  sections  on  the  description  of  the  NDC,  on  mitigation  policies  and 
measures, and on projections. The chapter on tracking progress is supplemented by CTF tables 

28 

 
which contain details on policies and measures, on projections on GHG emissions and removals 
and  on  the  Party’s  NDC.  Moreover,  this  first  BTR  will  also  comprise  information  on  national 
circumstances, institutional arrangements and NDC-specific data and indicators. There will be a 
strong  focus  as  required  under  the  Paris  Agreement  on  the  support  provided  to  developing 
country parties for their implementation of the ETF. Under the MPGs parties are also invited to 
provide information on adaptation planning and actions. 

The Governance Regulation article 29 paragraph 5(a) lays down the provisions to track progress 
and policy response to ensure Union targets achievement. This includes monitoring whether the 
Union and its Member States have made sufficient progress towards meeting their commitment 
taken under the Paris Agreement, towards their NDC. 

29 

 
 
 
5  REPORT ON THE QUALITY OF PETROL AND DIESEL 

FUEL USED FOR ROAD TRANSPORT IN THE EUROPEAN 
UNION (REPORTING YEAR 2022) 

5.1  INTRODUCTION 

Pursuant  to  Article 7a of Directive 98/70/EC 44 relating to the quality  of petrol and diesel  fuels 
(the  ‘Fuel  Quality  Directive’)  and  Article  5  of  Council  Directive  (EU)  2015/652  laying  down 
calculation  methods  and  reporting  requirements  pursuant  to  Directive  98/70/EC  45 ,  Member 
States are required to report annually on the GHG intensity of fuels and energy supplied in their 
territories.  This  reporting  obligation  applied  for  the  first  time  tofor  the  2017  reporting  year, 
following  the  application  and  transposition  of  Council  Directive  (EU)  2015/652.  The  recent 
amendment  of  the  Renewable  Energy  Directive  46 ,  deleted  Article  7a  of  the  Fuel  Quality 
Directive as from 20 November 2023. However, pursuant to Article 4 of the amending directive, 
which  setout  transitional  provisions,  Member  States  are  still  required  to  collect  and  report  the 
data  in  accordance  with  Article  7a  of  the  Fuel  Quality  Directive  for  the  years  2022  and  2023. 
This annual report contains the data reported for the year 2022. 

Furthermore  and,  pursuant  to  Article  8(3)  of  the  Fuel  Quality  Directive,  Member  States  are 
required to report on national fuel quality data for the preceding calendar year.  

This  annual  report  summarises  the  information  provided  by  Member  States  in  relation  to  the 
above-mentioned reporting requirements. It is based on the data submitted by Member States to 
the European Environment Agency (EEA) for the year 2022. 

5.2  VOLUMES AND LIFE CYCLE GREENHOUSE GAS INTENSITY OF FUEL AND ENERGY TYPES 

Article  7a  of  the  Fuel  Quality  Directive  set  out,  in  conjunction  with  Council  Directive  (EU) 
2015/652, set out reporting requirements concerning the following: 

• 

the total volume of each type of fuel or energy supplied for road transport and non-road 
mobile machinery (including inland waterway vessels when not at sea), agricultural and 
forestry tractors, and recreational craft when not at sea; 

44 Directive  98/70/EC  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  relating  to  the  quality  of  petrol  and  diesel  fuels  and 
amending Council Directive 93/12/EEC, OJ L 350 of 28.12.1998, p. 58. 
45 Council Directive (EU) 2015/652 of 20 April 2015 laying down calculation methods and reporting requirements pursuant to 
Directive 98/70/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council relating to the quality of petrol and diesel fuels, OJ L 107 of 
25.4.2015, p. 26. 
46  Directive  (EU)  2023/2413  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  18 October  2023  amending  Directive 
(EU) 2018/2001,  Regulation  (EU) 2018/1999  and  Directive 98/70/EC  as  regards  the  promotion  of  energy  from  renewable 
sources, and repealing Council Directive (EU) 2015/652. 

30 

 
 
• 

• 

the life-cycle GHG emissions per unit of energy, including the provisional mean values 
of the estimated indirect land use change (ILUC) emissions from biofuels; 47  

the feedstock and the biofuel production pathway used for each of the biofuels supplied 
on the territories of Member States. 

Until  the  relevant  articles  are  removed,  the  Fuel  Quality  Directive  obliges  Member  States  to 
require fuel suppliers to reduce the life-cycle GHG intensity of transport fuels, i.e., the life-cycle 
GHG  emissions  per  unit  of  energy  from  fuel  and  energy  supplied,  by  a  minimum  of  6% 
compared with  the fuel  baseline standard for 2010 of 94.1 gCO2eq/MJ. ILUC GHG emissions 
are  not  taken  into  account  when  assessing  compliance  with  the  minimum  6%  reduction  target. 
The Renewable Energy Directive (EU) 2018/2001 48  sets out several measures to address ILUC 
including a cap on food- and feed-based biofuels. Its delegated act 49 sets out detailed criteria for 
determining high ILUC-risk feedstock for biofuels that are to be gradually phased out by 2030 
and the criteria for certifying low ILUC-risk biofuels, bioliquids and biomass fuels.   
In  2022,  all  27  Member  States,  UK  (in  respect  of  Northern  Ireland 50),  Iceland  and  Norway 
provided data on GHG emission reductions in the appropriate format. The comparisons between 
aggregated figures refer to the EU-27 for all reference years.   

5.2.1  Greenhouse gas emissions and distance to 2020 target 

According to the data provided, the average GHG intensity of the fuels and energy supplied in 
the 27 reporting Member States in 2022 was 89 gCO2eq/MJ, which translates into a saving of 59 
MtCO2eq during the year 2022. This is 5.6% lower than the 2010 baseline of 94.1 gCO2eq/MJ 
(corresponding  to  a  similar  level  of  reduction  achieved  by  the  27  EU  Member  States  in  2021) 
and,  means  that  an  additional  0.4%  reduction  in  the  GHG  intensity  of  all  fossil  fuels,  biofuels 
and energy supplied is needed in order to reach the 6% target.  

Reported  data  for  2022  shows  that  the  progress  achieved  by  EU  fuel  suppliers  varies  greatly 
across  the  EU  Member  States.  9  Member  States  (Sweden,  Finland,  Estonia,  Belgium, 
Luxembourg,  Netherlands,  Slovakia,  Germany  and  Malta)  have  achieved  their  objective  of 
reducing the GHG intensity of transport fuels by 6% compared with 2010 (see Figure 5.1). The 
largest  progress  within  a  year  was  achieved  by  Sweden  and  Italy  with  4.4  and  1.1  percentage 
points increases between 2021 and 2022, against the 2010 baseline, followed by Austria with 1.0 
percentage  point.  However,  most  of  the  Member  States  made  negative  progress  (14  Member 

47 Directive (EU) 2015/1513 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 9 September 2015 amending Directive 98/70/EC 
relating to the quality of petrol and diesel fuels and amending Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from 
renewable sources, OJ L239 of 15.9.2015, p. 8. 
48 Directive (EU) 2018/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 on the promotion of the use of 
energy from renewable sources, OJ L 328, 21.12.2018, p. 82–209 
49  Commission  Delegated  Regulation  (EU)  2019/807  of  13  March  2019  supplementing  Directive  (EU)  2018/2001  of  the 
European Parliament and of the Council as regards the determination of high indirect land-use change-risk feedstock for which a 
significant  expansion of  the production  area  into  land  with high  carbon  stock  is  observed  and  the certification  of  low  indirect 
land-use change-risk biofuels, bioliquids and biomass fuels, OJ L 133, 21.5.2019, p. 1–7 
50 Following  the  end  of  the  transition  period,  Council  Directive  (EU)  2015/652  setting  out  relevant  reporting  obligations  no 
longer applies to the UK as whole. However, pursuant to Article 5(4) read in conjunction with Annex 2, point 47 of the Protocol 
on Ireland/Northern Ireland to the Withdrawal Agreement, Council Directive (EU) 2015/652 continues to apply to and in the UK 
in respect of Northern Ireland (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:12020W/TXT). 

31 

 
 
States) or very minimal progress, i.e. below 1.0 percentage point (8 Member States), or remained 
at the same level (1 Member State). Further information can be found in the EEA report on GHG 
intensities of transport fuels in the EU in 2022 51. 

Figure 5.1: Reductions in GHG intensity of fuels achieved by EU fuel suppliers in Member States in 
2010-2021 and 2010-2022 (Source: EEA) 

Furthermore,  in  2022,  upstream  emission  reductions  (UERs) 52 were  reported  by  15  Member 
States  (Croatia,  Malta,  Slovenia,  Luxembourg,  Cyprus,  Estonia,  Slovakia,  Czechia,  Romania, 
Denmark,  Hungary,  Italy,  Austria,  Poland,  Germany),  which  contributed  between  0.4  and  3.7 
percentage points to  the  overall GHG  emission reduction achievement. Consequently, the total 
reported  UERs  were  5 927 kt CO2eq  in  2022,  resulting  in  an  additional  reduction  in  the  fuel 
GHG intensity by 0.5 percentage points from 5.1% to 5.6%. UERs claimed by suppliers have to 
be quantified and reported in accordance with the requirements set out in Council Directive (EU) 
2015/652. 
When  ILUC emissions  are taken  into account 53, the average GHG intensity of the  fuels  in  the 
EU in 2022 was 4.0% lower than in 2010. According to Article 7d of the Fuel Quality Directive, 
which  lays  down  the  method  of  calculation  of  life  cycle  GHG  emissions  from  biofuels,  ILUC 

51 Technical Report No 2024/04. https://www.eionet.europa.eu/etcs/etc-cm/products/etc-cm-report-2024-04/view 2 
52 ‘Upstream  emissions’  means  all  greenhouse  gas  emissions  occurring  prior  to  the  raw  material  entering  a  refinery  or  a 
processing plant where the fuel is produced. 
53 For  this  calculation,  the  provisional  estimated  indirect  land-use  change  emissions  from  biofuels  were  taken  into  account  as 
listed in Annex V of the Fuel Quality Directive. 

32 

 
 
 
 
 
emissions  are  not  to  be  taken  into  account  when  assessing  compliance  with  the  minimum  6% 
reduction target. 

Further  action  will  be  necessary  in  order  to  decarbonise  the  fuel  used  in  transport  and  to 
contribute  to  the  increased  climate  ambition,  as  set  out  in  the  European  Green  Deal  and  the 
legislative proposals adopted as part of the “Fit-For-55” legislative package of 14 July 2021. The 
amended  Renewable  Energy  Directive  substantially  increases  the  overall  ambition  of 
decarbonising transport fuels and energy carriers. Member States will have to reduce their GHG 
intensity by at least 14.5% compared with the 2010 baseline or will need at least a 29% share of 
renewable  energy  within  the  final  consumption  of  energy  in  the  transport  sector  by  2030.  In 
addititon,  the  ReFuelEU  Aviation  and  FuelEU  Maritime  Regulations  will  boost the  production 
and uptake of sustainable alternative fuels in the aviation and maritime sectors. 

5.2.2  Fuel supply 

This  section  summarises  the  data  submitted  by  Member  States  on  all  fossil  fuels,  biofuels  and 
fuels  of non-biological  origin  within the scope of the Fuel  Quality  Directive for road transport 
and non-road mobile machinery. 

Total  fuel  supply  reported  by  the  27  Member  States  in  2022  was  11 164  petajoules  (PJ), 
representing a slight decrease of 4% compared with 2021. The fuel supply remained dominated 
by fossil fuels (93.4%) followed by biofuels (6.6%) and a very minor share (0.04%) of electricity 
(see Section 5.2.4). No renewable fuels of non-biological origin were reported in 2022.  

Fossil fuel supply remained dominated in 2022 by diesel (52.8%; 5 892 PJ), followed by petrol 
(23.8%; 2 658 PJ) and gas oil 54 (14.7%; 1 637 PJ). Liquefied petroleum gas and natural gas had 
a combined share of 2.1% (236 PJ) (see Figure 5.2). 

Figure 5.2: Fuel energy supply shares per fuel type in 2022 (Source: EEA) 

54 “Gas oil” denotes fuel used for non-road mobile machinery as per definition in Article 2(3) of the Fuel Quality Directive. 

33 

 
 
 
 
 
5.2.3  Biofuel consumption 

Total biofuel consumption decreased slightly from 781 PJ to 742 PJ between 2021 and 2022 in 
the 27 Member States. It remains dominated by biodiesel (fatty acid methyl ester, FAME), which 
accounts for 59.08% of total biofuel consumption (438 PJ), followed by hydrotreated vegetable 
oil  (HVO)  (18.1%;  134  PJ),  and  bioethanol  (15.9%  ;  118  PJ).  Bio-ethyl  tert-butyl  ether  (bio-
ETBE) accounted for 1.6% (12 PJ) and biogas for 2.4% (17 PJ) of the total biofuel consumption. 
The  other  biofuels  collectively  accounted  for  3.0%  (23  PJ)  (see  Figure  5.3).  This  means  that 
almost 80% of all biofuels are blended into diesel fuel. Detailed information for all biofuels and 
pathways can be found in the EEA Technical Report No 2024/04. 

Figure 5.3: Biofuel energy supply shares per fuel type in 2022 (Source: EEA) 

5.2.4  Electricity consumption 

The  reporting  of  electricity  consumption  by  fuel  suppliers  is  voluntary.  19  Member  States 
(compared  to  11 in  2021) reported data on electricity consumed by electric vehicles, including 
motorcycles  (see  Table  5.1).  The  total  reported  quantity  of  electricity  consumed  by  electric 
vehicles  increased  by  approximatelly  10%  from  9 859  593    GJ  in  2021  to  10 829 451  GJ 
(excluding  powertrain  efficiency  adjustment).  The  actual  electricity  consumption  of  electric 
vehicles  in  the  different  Member  States  may  be  greater  because  reporting  of  electricity  was 
compulsory under Article 7a and some Member States did not report it, even thogh it would help 
them achieve the 6% target. 

34 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 5.1: Electricity consumed by electric vehicles and motorcycles in 2022 as a reported contribution 
by fuel suppliers to their GHG reduction target (Source: EEA) 

Member State 

Quantity of energy 

GHG intensity 

excluding 
powertrain 
efficiency (GJ) 

including 
powertrain 
efficiency (GJ)  55 

reported by 
Member State 
(g CO2e/MJ) 

reported by 
Member State 
(g CO2e/kWh) 

Austria 

Belgium 

Czechia 

Croatia 

Denmark 

Estonia 

France 

Germany 

Greece 

Hungary 

Ireland 

Italy 

334 033 

21 443 

20 114 

125 

31 286 

72 361 

133 613 

8 577 

8 046 

50 

12 514 

28 944 

5 083 200 

2 033 280 

4 285 

3 373 

39 585 

458 711 

480 102 

1 714 

1 349 

15 834 

183 484 

192 041 

Netherlands 

3 900 000 

1 560 000 

Poland 

Portugal 

Slovakia 

Slovenia 

Spain 

Sweden 

Total 

6 495 

145 139 

206 048 

8 221 

5 624 

9 306 

2 598 

58 055 

82 419 

3 289 

2 250 

3 722 

10 829 451 

4 331 779 

18 

74 

177 

0 

58 

114 

14 

119 

117 

62 

96 

110 

94 

200 

56 

46 

84 

83 

7 

64 

266 

637 

0 

207 

412 

52 

428 

420 

225 

346 

397 

337 

721 

203 

167 

304 

299 

26 

5.3  OVERVIEW OF THE EU’S 2022 FUEL QUALITY DATA 

In  accordance  withe  Article  8  of  the  Fuel  Quality  Directive,  all  27  Member  States,  Iceland; 
Norway and the United Kingdom (in respect of Northern Ireland) submitted reports on national 
fuel quality data for 2022.  

This  section  provides  the  data  for  petrol  and  diesel  sales,  and  the  biocomponents  included 
therein, for road transport reported by the 27 EU Member States. It excludes other fossil fuels, 
other biofuels and fuels of non-biological origin, and fuels used for non-road mobile machinery. 

 55 In  accordance  with  Annex  I,  Part  1 of  the  Council  Directive  (EU)  2015/652,  the  GHG  reduction  target  is  calculated  on  the 
basis  of  electricity  quantities  using  the  adjustment  factor  for  the  EV  technology,  which  corresponds  to  the  inclusion  of  the 
powertrain efficiency. 

35 

 
  
 
  
  
 
 
More detailed information on fuel quality can be found in EEA Technical Report No 2024/02 on 
“Fuel quality monitoring in the EU in 2022” 56. 

5.3.1  Petrol and diesel  

The share of diesel remained stable between 2017 and 2022, representing 71.5% of total sales in 
2022.  The  total  amount  of  diesel  sold  in  2022  decreased  by  0.9  percentage  points  when 
compared  with  2021.  In  parallel,  petrol sales in  2022 increased by  1.1 percentage points when 
compared with 2021 (see Table 5.2). 

Table 5.2: Diesel and petrol fuel sales for the EU-27 (in ml litres and their respective shares) in 
2017/2022  

2017 

2018 

2019 

2020 

2021 

2022 

Diesel fuel 
sales 

Petrol fuel 
sales 

Total (diesel 
and petrol)  

235 388 
(73.3%) 

85 911 
(26.7%) 

241 653 
(73.3%) 

87 994 
(26.7%) 

246 865 
(73.0%) 

90 917 
(27.0%) 

217 395 
(73.2%) 

79 659 
(26.8%) 

231 224 
(72.6%) 

87 385 
(27.4%) 

233 348 
(71.5%) 

92 921 
(28.5%) 

321 299 

329 629  

337 782 

297 054 

318 609 

326 269 

Diesel  fuel  consumption  is  dominant  in  all  EU  Member  States,  except  in  the  Netherlands  and 
Cyprus  where  the  proportion  of  petrol  use  is  51%.  Member  States  with  relatively  high  petrol 
consumption  are  Greece  and  Finland  (45%  and  37%  respectively).  By  contrast,  the 
corresponding  petrol  shares  in  Bulgaria,  Lithuania  and  Latvia,  range  from  19%,  16%  to  14% 
respectively.  

There  were  no  significant  changes  in  the  distribution  of  petrol  sales  in  terms  of  petrol  grade 
research  octane  numbers  (RON)  between  2021  and  2022.  Most  petrol  sales  in  2022  involved 
fuels with a petrol grade of RON 95 while the share of RON ≥ 98 sales  slightly decreased. Small 
changes  were  made in  the reporting  template  where  category 95  < RON < 98 was  removed to 
harmonise reporting and remove some potential inconsistencies (see Table 5.3). 

Table 5.3: Share of petrol sales in the EU-27 according to RON numbers 

2017 

2018 

2019 

2020 

2021 

2022 

RON 95 

84.3% 

80.0% 

77.8% 

79.3% 

80.5% 

95.1% 

95 < RON < 98 

8.5% 

14.9% 

16.7% 

14.3% 

13.1% 

- 

RON ≥ 98 

6.9% 

4.9% 

5.4% 

6.4% 

6.4% 

4.9% 

56 https://www.eionet.europa.eu/etcs/etc-cm/products/etc-cm-report-2024-02 

36 

 
  
 
 
RON = 91 

0.2% 

0.2% 

0.1% 

0.01% 

0.03% 

0.01% 

5.3.2  Biocomponents content  

In 2022, all petrol and diesel sold in the EU was marketed as containing biocomponents. 61.5% 
of all petrol sold, contained up to 5% ethanol content by volume (E5), while 37.6% contained up 
to 10% ethanol content (E10); 0.9% of petrol contained more than 10% ethanol (E+ 57).  

All diesel fuel sold in 2022 contained biocomponents. 99.8% of diesel fuel contained up to 7% 
FAME (B7) and 0.2% contained more than 7% (B+) 58 (see Table 5.4). 

Table 5.4: Use of biocomponents in petrol and diesel fuels sold in the EU-27 in 2017-2022 

Fuel type 

2017 

2018 

2019 

2020 

2021 

2022 

E0 

E5 

14.5% 

4.9% 

0.7% 

0.0% 

0.0% 

0.0% 

66.7% 

81.5% 

73.3% 

65.7% 

65.4% 

61.5% 

E10 

18.6% 

13.4% 

25.7% 

33.3% 

34.2% 

37.6% 

E+ 

B0 

B7 

B+ 

0.1% 

0.0% 

0.2% 

0.0% 

0.4% 

1.0% 

0.4% 

0.9% 

0.0% 

0.0% 

0.0% 

0.0% 

81.8% 

99.2% 

99.1% 

86.2% 

99.8% 

99.8% 

16.2% 

0.8% 

0.8% 

13.8% 

0.2% 

0.2% 

l
o
r
t
e
P

l
e
s
e
i
D

5.3.3  Compliance of sold fuels with quality limits 

A high compliance with the fuel quality limits is observed in the EU as a whole. A very large 
majority of key fuel parameters in the samples taken in 2022 were reported as being within the 
tolerance limits. 

6 Member States (Ireland, Croatia, Cyprus, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Sweden) verified and 
reported full compliance for both petrol and diesel fuels. 9 Member States verified and reported 
full compliance for petrol (Ireland, Croatia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Romania, 
Slovenia and Sweden), and 15 for diesel (Czechia, Denmark, Ireland, Greece,  Croatia, Cyprus, 
Lithuania,  Luxembourg,  Hungary,  the  Netherlands,  Austria,  Poland,  Portugal,  Finland  and 
Sweden). 

Member  States  reported  a  total  of  124  cases  of  non-compliance  for  petrol  and  125  cases  for 
diesel in 2022. For petrol, the most common parameters falling outside the specifications were 

57 E+ is petrol fuel with > 10% (% v/v) ethanol content.  
58 B+ is diesel fuel with > 7 % (% v/v) biodiesel content. 

37 

 
 
 
 
 
exceedances of the summer vapour pressure (in  16 Member States), RON in 4 Member States; 
and  motor  octane  number  (MON),  aromatics  content  and  sulphur  content  (in  3  Member  States 
for all 3 parameters). For diesel, the most common parameters falling outside the specifications 
were the sulphur content and density of 15 oC (in 6 Member States for both parameters) and the 
FAME content (in 5 Member States).  

All  Member  States  described  the  actions  taken  when  non-compliant  samples  were  identified. 
These  actions  included  informing  the  competent  authorities,  initiating  investigations,  imposing 
penalties and fines, and resampling.  In a small number of cases, no action was taken when the 
non-compliant parameters were found to be very close to the tolerance limits. 

There was therefore no need for the Commission to launch any investigation in this area. It can 
be concluded that the fuel quality monitoring system in place ensures that high-quality fuels are 
sold in the EU in accordance with the requirements of the Fuel Quality Directive.  

38 

 
 
 
6  EU ETS EMISSIONS  

Table  6.1:  Verified  emissions  data  from  the  EU  Emissions  Trading  System  (EU  ETS)  –  from 
power and industry installations (broken down by electricity and heat generation and industrial 
production) and from aircraft operators.  

Year 

2019 

2020 

2021 

2022 

2023 

Verified emissions 
from power and 
industry 
installations 
Change year-on- 
year 
Verified emissions 
from electricity 
and heat 
generation 
Change year-on- 
year 
Verified emissions 
from industrial 
production 
Change year-on- 
year 
Verified emissions 
from aircraft 
operators 
Change year-on- 
year 59 

1 530 

1 356 
(1 253 UK excl.) 

1 337 

1 313 

1 096 

-9.1% 

-11.4% 

-1.4% 
(6.6% UK excl.) 

-1.8% 

-16.5% 

822 

696 
(653 UK excl.) 

708 

725 

552 

-14.7% 

-15.3% 

1.6% 
(8.5% UK excl.) 

2.4% 

-23.9% 

708 

660 
(601 UK excl.) 

629 

589 

544 

-1.6% 

-6.9% 

-4.7% 
(4.7% UK excl.) 

-6.4% 

-7.5% 

68.2 

25.2 

27.9 

49.5 

54.1 

+1% 

−63% 

+30% 

+77% 

+9.5% 

59 Considering the updated scope of aviation in the EU ETS (without incoming flights from the UK). 

39 

 
 
 
 
 
7  USE OF REVENUES FROM AUCTIONING OF ETS 

ALLOWANCES 

The table below includes information from Member States’ annual reports on the use of the EU 
Emission  Trading  System  (ETS)  auction  revenue  as  required  by  the  Regulation  on  the 
Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action 60. As of 5 June 2023, Member States must 
spend all ETS revenue (or an equivalent financial value) on energy- and climate-related purposes 
listed  in  Article  10(3)  of  the  ETS  Directive 61,  except  for  any  revenue  spent  in  aid  for  indirect 
carbon costs under Article 10a(6) of the Directive.  

In cases where Member States reported spending their auction revenue in aid for indirect carbon 
costs 62, this value was deducted from the total revenue 63 to obtain the value of the revenue to be 
spent on the purposes of Article 10(3). For the revenue that Member States collected until 4 June 
2023, they were encouraged to use at least 50% of revenues from general allowances and 100% 
from aviation allowances for the Article 10(3) purposes.  

For the data on the Member States’ use of their ETS auction revenue in the 2013-2022 period, 
see the Climate Action Progress Report 2023 64. 

60 COM(2024)550 final 
61 Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 October 2003 establishing a system for greenhouse 
gas emission allowance trading within the Union and amending Council Directive 96/61/EC (OJ L 275 25.10.2003, p. 32) 
62 See Carbon Market Report 2024, Chapter 8.1.  At the time the current report is being finalised, the Carbon Market Report 2024 
(the report on the functioning of the EU ETS in 2023) is expected to be adopted in early November. Once adopted, the Carbon 
Market Report 2024 will be available on the website of the Directorate General Climate Action ‘What is the EU ETS’. 
63 See  Table  2  in  the  Annex  to  the  Carbon  Market  Report  2024.  At  the  time  the  current  report  is  being  finalised,  the  Carbon 
Market Report 2024 (the report on the functioning of the EU ETS in 2023) is expected to be adopted in early November. Once 
adopted, the Carbon Market Report 2024 will be available on the website of the Directorate General Climate Action ‘What is the 
EU ETS’. 
64 EU Climate Action Progress Report 2023, COM(2023) 653 final, 24.10.2023. 

40 

 
 
Table 7.1: Member States’ generated revenue from the auctioning of ETS allowances in 2023 to 
be  spent  on  climate  and  energy-related  purposes  (EUR  million)  and  the  share  reported  as 
disbursed (%) 65. 

Austria 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

435.4 

2023 

100% 

Revenue is not earmarked. Reported equivalent financial value spending on climate and energy purposes is higher 
than the auction revenue. The purpose reported in 2023 with the biggest allocation from the ETS revenue is the 
improvement/extension  of  railway  infrastructure,  which  includes  spending  on  the  Brenner  base  tunnel  (EUR 
1 183.1 million). 

Belgium 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

541.2 

2023 

41% 

Flanders  reported  spending  EUR  212.3  million  of  its  2023  auction  revenue  to  compensate  for  indirect  carbon 
costs. This amount was deducted from Belgium’s total revenue for the purpose of calculating the amount Belgium 
must  spend  on  the  purposes  of  Article  10(3).  59%  of  the  2023  revenue  to  be  spent  on  the  purposes  of  Article 
10(3) was reported as carried over for future spending and reporting. Additionally, EUR 69.9 million of the pre-
2023 revenue was reported as disbursed in 2023 and EUR 193.7 million of the pre-2023 revenue was reported as 
committed in 2023. Since 2023, the direct spending of auction revenue is on hold pending a legal decision on a 
division  between  the  regions  and  the  federal  government.  The  amount  reported  as  disbursed  in  2023  comes 
temporarily from the regional general budgets and is to be offset when the 2023 revenue becomes available. The 
purpose reported in 2023 with the biggest allocation from the ETS revenue is supporting the low-carbon transition 
of businesses, via WalEnergie (EUR 85.0 million). 

Bulgaria 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

1,172.2 

2023 

100% 

Almost all 2023 revenue is disbursed to the Ministry of Energy’s Fund for Security of the Electric Power System 
(FSES) that compensates non-domestic end-users for the rise in electricity prices (EUR 1,167.6 million).  

Croatia 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

65 Data in this table is based on the annual reporting by the Member States with some modifications made to ensure consistency 
across  all  Member  States  and over  the  reporting  period.  The  harmonisation,  methodology  and  analysis  were  conducted  by  SQ 
Consult in a study for the European Commission.  

41 

 
 
Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

158.9 

2023 

0% 

24% of the 2023 revenue to be spent on the purposes of Article 10(3) was reported as committed and 76% was 
reported  as  carried  over  for  future  spending  and  reporting.  Additionally,  EUR  123.7  million  of  the  pre-2023 
revenue  was  reported  as  disbursed  in  2023  and  EUR  151.1  million  of  the  pre-2023  revenue  was  reported  as 
committed  in  2023.  According  to  national  law,  100%  of  the  auction  revenues  is  spent  on  climate  and  energy 
purposes via the Environmental Protection and Energy Efficiency Fund (EPEEF). No revenue generated in 2023 
was disbursed in 2023. All the revenue disbursed in 2023 came from earlier years. The purpose reported in 2023 
with the biggest allocation from the ETS revenues is subsidies for social support and just transition via the EPEEF 
(EUR 89.9 million). 

Cyprus 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

113.6 

2023 

91% 

9% of the 2023 revenue to be spent  was reported as carried over for future  spending and reporting. Equivalent 
financial value is spent on the purposes of Art. 10(3) via the general budget. The purpose reported in 2023 with 
the  biggest  allocation  from  the  ETS  revenue  is  Public  Passenger  Transport  by  the  Ministry  of  Transport  (EUR 
79.2 million). 

Czechia 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

777.2 

2023 

26% 

5%  of  the  2023  revenue  to  be  spent  was  reported  as  committed,  59%  was  reported  as  carried  over  for  future 
spending  and  reporting  and  the  remaining  10%  was  reported  as  committed  without  indication  of  the  purpose. 
Additionally, EUR 78.0 million of the pre-2023 revenue was reported as disbursed in 2023. Czechia mentioned an 
ongoing  legislative  process  to  enshrine  additional  spending  for  the  purpose  of  Art.  10(3)  in  national  law.  The 
purpose reported in 2023 with the biggest allocation from the ETS  revenues is the Support of renewable energy 
sources by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (EUR 167.6 million). 

Denmark 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

416.1 

2023 

100% 

Revenue  is  not  earmarked.  Projects  for  Art.  10(3)  purposes  with  the  equivalent  financial  value  have  been 
reported. The purpose reported in 2023 with the biggest allocation from the ETS revenue is grants for  upgrading 
and purification of biogas, implemented by the Danish Energy Agency under the Ministry of Climate, Energy and 
Utilities (EUR 287.6 million). 

Estonia 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

42 

 
Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

360.0 

2023 

2% 

50%  of  the  2023  revenue  to  be  spent  on  the  purposes  of  Article  10(3)  was  reported  as  committed  and  the 
remaining 48% of the 2023 revenue has not been described in the report. Additionally, EUR 152.7 million of the 
pre-2023 revenue was reported as disbursed in 2023. Up to 2023, 50% of the auctioning revenues were earmarked 
and  directed  through  the  four-year  State  Budget  Strategy  and  spent  on  Art.  10(3)  purposes,  which  may  take 
multiple  years.  Any  unspent  revenue  is  carried  over  to  later  years  and  always  used  for  climate  and  energy 
projects.  The  remaining  50%  went  to  the  general  budget.  From  2024  onwards,  100%  of  revenue  will  be 
earmarked  for  Art  10(3)  purposes.  The  purpose  reported  in  2023  with  the  biggest  allocation  from  the  ETS 
revenues  is  grants  to  increase  energy  efficiency  in  public  sector  buildings,  implemented  by  the  State  Shared 
Service Centre (EUR 125.6 million). 

Finland 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenues 
2023 

Revenues to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

466.0 

2023 

100% 

Finland reported spending EUR 115.6 million from its 2023 auction revenue to compensate  for indirect carbon 
costs. This amount was deducted from Finland’s total revenues for the purpose of calculating the amount Finland 
must  spend  on  the  purposes  of  Article  10(3).  Revenue  is  not  earmarked.  Equivalent  spending  of  slightly  more 
than the revenue to be spent on the purposes of Art. 10(3) was reported for 2023. The purpose reported in 2023 
with the biggest allocation from the ETS revenue is the development of public transport and purchase of public 
transportation services (EUR 193.3 million). 

France 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

2 100.2 

2023 

100% 

The  auction  revenue  co-funds  energy  efficiency  improvements  of  low-income  housing,  up  to  a  ceiling  of 
EUR 700  million  per  year.  The  remainder  is  not  earmarked  but  goes  to  the  general  budget,  from  which  the 
equivalent  financial  value  is  reported.  The  purpose  reported  in  2023  with  the  biggest  allocation  from  the  ETS 
revenue  is  improving  railway  networks  for  enhanced  performance  and  expanded  national  and  European  rail 
connectivity (EUR 1 400.2 million). 

Germany 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenues 
2023 

Revenues to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

7 022.2 

2023 

100% 

43 

 
Germany reported spending EUR 623.3 million from its 2023 auction revenue to compensate for indirect carbon 
costs.  This  amount  was  deducted  from  Germany’s  total  revenue  for  the  purpose  of  calculating  the  amount 
Germany  must  spend  on  the  purposes  of  Article  10(3).  Germany's  EUR  7.6  billion  auction  revenue  co-funded 
EUR 18.5 billion in spending on Article 10(3) purposes and indirect carbon costs (Germany's total indirect carbon 
costs amounted to EUR 1.6 billion, with 37% of this figure attributed to the auction revenue in this table). The 
purpose  reported in 2023 with the  biggest allocation from the ETS revenue is promoting energy efficiency and 
renewable  energy  measures  in  the  building  sector,  implemented  by  the  Bundesministerium  für  Wirtschaft  und 
Klimaschutz (EUR 11 049.5 million). 

Greece 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

1 201.7 

2023 

100% 

Greece  reported  spending  EUR 264.8 million  from  its  2023  auction  revenue  to  compensate  for  indirect  carbon 
costs. This amount was deducted from Greece’s total revenue for the purpose of calculating the amount Greece 
must spend on the purposes of Article 10(3). Almost all revenue to be spent on the purposes of Article 10(3) goes 
to the Energy Transition Fund for social support and just transition, coordinated by the Greek Renewable Energy 
Sources Operator and Guarantees of Origin “DAPEEP” (EUR 1 131.7 million) 

Hungary 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

438.9 

2023 

30% 

9% of the 2023 revenue to be spent on the purposes of Article 10(3) was reported as committed and the remaining 
61% of the 2023 revenue has not been described in the report. Additionally, EUR 176.2 million of the pre-2023 
revenue  was  reported  as  disbursed  in  2023  and  EUR  28.7  million  of  the  pre-2023  revenue  was  reported  as 
committed in 2023. Revenue is earmarked for Art. 10(3) purposes, any revenue not spent is carried over to future 
years. The purpose reported in 2023 with the biggest allocation from the ETS revenue is the implementation of a 
residential  PV  and  storage  support  programme  via  NFFKÜ  International  Development  and  Resource 
Coordination Agency (EUR 104.6 million). 

Ireland 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenues to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

158.3 

2023 

100% 

Revenue is not earmarked for specific purposes. The amounts reported are equivalent to 100% of this revenue and 
are allocated to emission reduction activities in line with the purposes of Art 10(3). The purpose reported in 2023 
with the biggest allocation from the ETS revenue is public transport investment by the Department of Transport 
(EUR 117.3 million). 

Italy 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

2023 

44 

 
2023 

3,547.4 

0% 

All 2023 revenue was reported as carried over for future spending and reporting. Additionally, EUR 23.2 million 
of the pre-2023 revenue was reported as disbursed in 2023 and EUR 23.8 million of the pre-2023 revenues was 
reported as committed in 2023. Following the Italian financial rules, committing or disbursing of the 2023 auction 
revenue  will  start  in  2024.  All  reported  spending  corresponds  to  the  revenue  generated  in  2022  or  before.  The 
purpose  reported  in  2023  with  the  biggest  allocation  from  the  ETS  revenue  is  the  financing  of  sustainable 
mobility interventions in public transport and mobility (EUR 20.0 million). 

Latvia 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

90.8 

2023 

30% 

32% of the 2023 revenue to be spent on the purposes of Article 10(3) was reported as committed and 38% was 
reported  as  carried  over  for  future  spending  and  reporting.  All  auction  revenue  goes  to  the  ‘EAAI’,  a  national 
green investment scheme, aimed at tackling global climate change. The purpose reported in 2023 with the biggest 
allocation  from  the  ETS  revenue  is  reducing  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  national  protected  architectural 
monuments  through  an  open  tender,  implemented  by  the  Ministry  of  Climate  and  Energy  and  Environmental 
Investment Fund (EUR 19.5 million). 

Lithuania 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

113.7 

2023 

61% 

36% of the 2023 revenue to be spent on the purposes of Article 10(3) was reported as committed and 36% was 
reported as carried over for future spending and reporting. The auction revenue funds the four-year (2022-2025) 
Climate  Change Programme. Funds are committed when funding applications are accepted, payments are made 
after  the  projects  are  implemented.  The  purpose  reported  in  2023  with  the  biggest  allocation  from  the  ETS 
revenue  is  investment  support  for  biomethane  production  and/or  biodegradation  to  promote  green  energy 
development (EUR 31.0 million). 

Luxembourg 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

9.3 

2023 

100% 

Auction  revenue,  together  with  the  climate  contribution  on  road  fuels  and  a  share  (40%)  of  the  annual  motor 
vehicle tax, finance the Climate and Energy Fund. An equivalent amount of Article 10(3) actions supported from 
this fund was reported. The purpose reported in 2023 with the biggest allocation from the ETS revenue is Climate 
and Energy Fund activities (EUR 9.3 million). 

Malta 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

2023 

45 

 
2023 

44.6 

100% 

Revenue is not earmarked. An equivalent spending of 26% more than the revenue to be spent on the purposes of 
Art. 10(3) was reported for 2023. The purpose reported in 2023 with the biggest allocation from the ETS revenue 
is the ARMS Feed-in-tariff project in Malta (EUR 13.1 million). 

Netherlands 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

1 281.4 

2023 

100% 

Revenue  is  not  earmarked.  Equivalent  spending  has  been  reported  as  part  of  the  spending  under  several  large 
climate policies. The purpose reported in 2023 with the biggest allocation from the ETS revenue is the Investment 
Subsidy for Sustainable Energy (ISDE) programme (EUR 510.7 million). 

Poland 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

4 988.1 

2023 

92% 

Poland reported spending EUR 384.4 million from its 2023 auction revenues to compensate for indirect carbon 
costs. This amount was deducted from Poland’s total revenues for the purpose of calculating the amount Poland 
must spend on the purposes of Article 10(3). Of the 2023 revenue to be spent on the purposes of Article 10(3), the 
remaining 8% has not been explained in the report. Revenue is not earmarked. The equivalent financial value of 
actions for the purposes in Art. 10(3) has been reported. The purpose reported in 2023 with the biggest allocation 
from  ETS  revenues  is  compensation  for  certain  recipients  of  gas  fuels,  implemented  by  Zarządca  Rozliczeń 
(EUR 1 424.8 million). 

Portugal 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

720.0 

2023 

96% 

Portugal  reported  spending  EUR 25.0 million  from  its  2023  auction  revenue  to  compensate  for  indirect  carbon 
costs. This amount was deducted from Portugal’s total revenue for the purpose of calculating the amount Portugal 
must spend on the purposes of Article 10(3). 4% of the 2023 revenue to be spent on the purposes of Article 10(3) 
was  reported  as  carried  over  for  future  spending  and  reporting.  All  auction  revenue  is  channelled  to  the 
Environment  Fund  (alongside  other  revenue),  which  finances  environmental  projects  that  may  or  may  not  be 
directly related to climate objectives. The amounts reported as spent represent climate change and energy projects 
financed from the Environmental Fund. The purpose reported in 2023 with the biggest allocation from the ETS 
revenue is to support renewables in the National Energetic System (SEN) (EUR 436.0 million). 

Romania 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

475.9 

2023 

100% 

46 

 
Romania reported spending EUR 104.4 million from its 2023 auction revenue to compensate for indirect carbon 
costs.  This  amount  was  deducted  from  Romania’s  total  revenues  for  the  purpose  of  calculating  the  amount 
Romania  must  spend  on  the  purposes  of  Article  10(3).  Distribution  of  auction  revenue  to  different  purposes  is 
governed by law GEO 115/2011. The purpose reported in 2023 with the biggest allocation from the ETS revenue 
is the installation of photovoltaic panel systems for electricity production and surplus delivery to the national grid, 
implemented by Administrația Fondului pentru Mediu “AFM” (EUR 201.1 million). 

Slovakia 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

298.0 

2023 

31% 

Slovakia reported spending EUR 80.3 million from its 2023 auction revenues to compensate for indirect carbon 
costs.  This  amount  was  deducted  from  Slovakia’s  total  revenue  for  the  purpose  of  calculating  the  amount 
Slovakia must spend on the purposes of Article 10(3). 27% of  the 2023 revenues to be spent on the purposes of 
Article 10(3) was reported as committed and 42% was reported as carried over for future spending and reporting. 
All  auction  revenue  is  earmarked  and  goes  to  the  Environmental  Fund,  which  is  spent  on  purposes  in  Article 
10(3). The purpose reported in 2023 with the biggest allocation from the ETS revenue is a programme for water 
pipes and sewers, including water retention measures (EUR 59.2 million). 

Slovenia 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

161.1 

2023 

79% 

Slovenia  reported  spending  EUR 26.0 million  from  its  2023  auction  revenue  to  compensate  for  indirect  carbon 
costs.  This  amount  was  deducted  from  Slovenia’s  total  revenue  for  the  purpose  of  calculating  the  amount 
Slovenia must spend on the purposes of Article 10(3). 21% of the 2023 revenue to be spent on the purposes of 
Article 10(3) was reported as committed. All auction revenue is used for purposes in Article 10(3), coordinated 
through  the  Climate  Change  Fund.  The  purpose  reported  in  2023  with  the  biggest  allocation  from  the  ETS 
revenue is investments in thermal insulation of buildings and efficient heating (EUR 38.0 million). 

Spain 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

3 355.5 

2023 

33% 

47 

 
Spain  reported  spending  EUR 228.8 million  from  its  2023  auction  revenue  to  compensate  for  indirect  carbon 
costs. This amount was deducted from Spain’s total revenue for the purpose of calculating the amount Spain must 
spend on the purposes of Article 10(3). 67% of the 2023 revenue to be spent on the purposes of Article 10(3) was 
reported as carried over for future spending and reporting. Estimated revenue is earmarked for energy and climate 
purposes ahead of each year, so the actual revenue may differ from the allocated estimate. All estimated revenue 
that  is  not  used  in  aid  for  indirect  carbon  cost  (excluded  in  the  values  above)  is  used  for  climate  and  energy 
purposes. The purpose reported in 2023 with the biggest allocation from the ETS revenue is financing the costs of 
the electric system related to promoting renewable energies (EUR 1 100.0 million). 

Sweden 

Total percentage disbursed up to the year indicated 

Year of 
generation 
of 
revenue 
2023 

Revenue to be spent on 
the purposes of Art. 10(3) 
(EUR million) 

323.2 

2023 

0% 

100% of the 2023 revenue to be spent was  reported as committed. Revenue is not earmarked. Example projects 
have  been  reported  for  at  least  the  minimum  required  spending  on  energy  and  climate  purposes.  The  purpose 
reported  in  2023  with  the  biggest  allocation  from  the  ETS  revenue  is  to  Climate  Leap.  This  funds  local  and 
regional investments in greenhouse gas emission reductions based on the expected emission reductions relative to 
the  investment  cost,  and  is  implemented  by  the  Swedish  Environmental  Protection  Agency  “Naturvårdsverket” 
(EUR 209.9 million). 

48 

 
 
 
8  EMISSIONS COVERED BY THE EFFORT SHARING 

LEGISLATION 

By 30 June 2024, Member States had to report their final updated integrated National Energy and 
Climate  Plans  (NECPs) to  the  Commission 66.  The  updated  NECPs  should contain  the  policies 
and  measures  that  a  Member  State  envisages  to  meet  their  climate  and  energy  targets.  The 
updated NECPs are  currently being  assessed by  the Commission.  The Commission  includes in 
the  analysis  for  2030  the  information  from  Member  States’  final  updated  NECPs,  or  draft 
updated NECPs in the absence of more recent information. A more complete overview will be 
available when the Commissions received final updated NECPs from all Member States. 

Table 8.1: Member States targets, historical and projected emissions under the effort-sharing 
legislation and distance to targets in percentage change from 2005 base year emissions 67

Member State 

2021 

2022 

2023 

2030  
(projection
s WEM) 

2030  
(projection
s WAM) 

Austria 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (percentage point) 

Belgium 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Bulgaria 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Croatia 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Cyprus 

Target 

Emissions 

-14% 

-15% 

0 

-13% 

-16% 

3 

21% 

13% 

9 

-2% 

3% 

-6 

-5% 

3% 

-17% 

-19% 

2 

-15% 

-22% 

6 

13% 

10% 

3 

-8% 

10% 

3 

-7% 

10% 

-21% 

-23% 

3 

-19% 

-22% 

2 

10% 

5% 

5 

-9% 

-10% 

0 

-10% 

5% 

-48% 

-30% 

-18 

-47% 

-22% 

-25 

-10% 

4% 

-14 

-17% 

4% 

-14 

-32% 

4% 

-48% 

-42% 

-6 

-47% 

-43% 

-4 

-10% 

2% 

-12 

-17% 

-17% 

0 

-32% 

-23% 

66 By 15 October 2024, 14 Member States have submitted their final updated NECPs. 
67 2021  and  2022  emissions  are based  on  2024  final  GHG  inventory  reports, 2023  emissions  are  based  on  2024  approximated 
inventory reports. Positive values indicate projected overachievement while negative values indicate projected underachievement. 
WEM = with existing measures, WAM = with additional measures. The 2005 emissions used for the calculation are set out in 
Annex I of Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2020/2126. Any apparent miscalculations for percentage point distance to 
targets is due to rounding of the percentage targets and emissions. 

49 

 
 
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
Distance to target (pp) 

Czechia 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Denmark 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Estonia 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Finland 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

France 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Germany 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Greece 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Hungary 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Ireland 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Italy 

Target 

Emissions 

3 

-15 

-14 

-9 

-6% 

10% 

3 

-22% 

10% 

3 

-3% 

-19% 

2 

-19% 

-23% 

4 

-19% 

-24% 

5 

-15% 

-24% 

5 

-19% 

-24% 

5 

-9% 

-8% 

-1 

-11% 

-4% 

-7 

-22% 

-21% 

-9% 

-6% 

-3 

-26% 

-25% 

-1 

-6% 

-3% 

-3 

-23% 

-27% 

4 

-22% 

-26% 

4 

-19% 

-21% 

2 

-22% 

-26% 

4 

-11% 

-15% 

4 

-15% 

-10% 

-5 

-24% 

-22% 

-26% 

4% 

-14 

-50% 

4% 

-14 

-24% 

-29% 

-8 

-50% 

-45% 

-5 

-47% 

-24% 

-23 

-50% 

-24% 

-23 

-47% 

-24% 

-23 

-19% 

-15% 

-3 

-42% 

-9% 

-33 

-43% 

-29% 

-26% 

-33% 

7 

-50% 

-44% 

-6 

-24% 

-14% 

-10 

-50% 

-46% 

-4 

-47% 

-46% 

-1 

-50% 

-41% 

-9 

-47% 

-46% 

-1 

-19% 

-25% 

6 

-42% 

-25% 

-17 

-43% 

-41% 

-8 

2% 

-5% 

7 

-20% 

-21% 

1 

0% 

-8% 

8 

-16% 

-21% 

5 

-16% 

-20% 

4 

-12% 

-17% 

5 

-16% 

-20% 

4 

4% 

-4% 

8 

-9% 

-3% 

-6 

-20% 

-18% 

50 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Distance to target (pp) 

-2 

-1 

-2 

-14 

-3 

Latvia 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Lithuania 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Luxembourg 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Malta 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Netherlands 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Poland 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Portugal 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Romania 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Slovakia 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Slovenia 

Target 

Emissions 

0% 

-4% 

5 

2% 

4% 

-2 

-23% 

-32% 

8 

16% 

31% 

-14 

-27% 

-34% 

7 

3% 

4% 

-1 

-18% 

-19% 

1 

-3% 

4% 

-7 

-10% 

-14% 

4 

-9% 

-15% 

-17% 

-29% 

-14 

-21% 

-29% 

-14 

-50% 

-29% 

-14 

-19% 

-33% 

-17 

-48% 

-12% 

-5 

-18% 

-14% 

-4 

-29% 

-14% 

-4 

-13% 

-9% 

-4 

-23% 

-1% 

-21 

-26% 

-1% 

-17% 

-21% 

4 

-21% 

-21% 

0 

-50% 

-56% 

6 

-19% 

46% 

-65 

-48% 

-39% 

-9 

-18% 

-7% 

-11 

-29% 

-42% 

13 

-13% 

-15% 

3 

-23% 

-12% 

-11 

-26% 

-29% 

3% 

-21% 

-1 

5% 

-21% 

-1 

-19% 

-21% 

-1 

21% 

-30% 

11 

-25% 

-2% 

5 

6% 

2% 

4 

-16% 

2% 

4 

-2% 

4% 

-6 

-9% 

-15% 

7 

-6% 

-15% 

24% 

1% 

23 

23% 

9% 

14 

-17% 

-20% 

3 

102% 

30% 

72 

-23% 

-27% 

4 

12% 

8% 

4 

-13% 

-18% 

5 

12% 

6% 

6 

1% 

-12% 

13 

-4% 

-12% 

51 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Distance to target (pp) 

9 

7 

6 

-21 

3 

Spain 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Sweden 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

EU 27 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Iceland 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

Norway 

Target 

Emissions 

Distance to target (pp) 

-17% 

-20% 

3 

-28% 

-33% 

5 

-12% 

-15% 

3 

-7% 

-11% 

4 

-13% 

-12% 

-1 

-18% 

-15% 

7 

-29% 

-15% 

7 

-15% 

-18% 

3 

-10% 

-11% 

1 

-16% 

-13% 

-3 

-20% 

-21% 

1 

-32% 

-38% 

6 

-18% 

-19% 

1 

-12% 

-14% 

1 

-19% 

-16% 

-3 

-37% 

-1% 

-21 

-50% 

-1% 

-21 

-40% 

-28% 

-11 

-29% 

-24% 

-4 

-40% 

-32% 

-8 

-37% 

-45% 

7 

-50% 

-44% 

-6 

-40% 

-37% 

-3 

-29% 

-26% 

-3 

-40% 

-32% 

-8 

52 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Table 8.2: Annual emissions allocations, historical and projected emissions, and distance to targets under the Effort Sharing 
Regulation (MtCO2-eq.) covering the period 2021 - 2030. Positive values indicate overachievement, negative values indicate 
underachievement 68 69. 

68 AEAs  for  the  years  2021-2025  are  established  in  Implementing  Decision  (EU)  2020/2126.  AEAs  for  the  years  2026  -2030  are  estimated  based  on  the  trajectory  defined  in 
Article 4 ESR and adjusted as provided for under Article 10(1)c ESR. To estimate the trajectory for 2026-2030, the estimated ESR emissions for the years 2021 to 2023 are used, 
after  a  reduction  by  the  Article  10(1)c  ESR  adjustment  included  in  the  AEAs  for  2021-2023.  The  trajectory  values  are  adjusted  based  on  Article  10(1)c  on  the  basis  of  the 
assumption that the methodology applied to the AEAs for 2021 to 2025 is continued unchanged for the years 2026-2030, and no further adjustments for changes to EU ETS are 
required.  The  final  AEAs  for  these  years  will  be  established  after  the  comprehensive  review  in 2025  pursuant  to  Article  38(1a)  of Regulation  (EU)  2018/1999.  The  values  of 
‘cumulative surplus of AEAs’ are the cumulative annual distances to target and do not take into account cancellations and transfers. 2021 and 2022 emissions are based on 2024 
final GHG inventory reports, 2023 emissions are based on 2024 approximated inventory reports. 2024 - 2030 emissions are based on the most recent WAM emissions projections 
reports, or in the absence of WAM projections the WEM projections. First compliance check will take place in 2027. 
69 Poland’s  estimated  2030  ESR  emissions  are  based  on  their  WEM  projections  from  its  draft  updated  NECP  which  is  more  ambitious  than  its  WAM  projections  from  their 
NECPR reporting in 2023. See also SWD(2024) 126 final. Romania and Latvia’s emissions are based on WAM projections in their final NECPs for respective years 2025-2030 
2024-2030. 

53 

 
 
Member State 

Austria 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Belgium 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Bulgaria 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

ETS and 
LULUCF 
flexibility 

2005 base 
year 
emissions 

2021 

2022 

2023 

2024 

2025 

2026 

2027 

2028 

2029 

2030 

48.8 

48.6 

47.4 

46.2 

45.2 

43.7 

43.0 

43.9 

40.7 

42.4 

40.2 

40.9 

37.6 

39.3 

34.9 

37.3 

32.3 

35.3 

29.6 

33.2 

57.0 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

0.1 

0.1 

1.2 

1.4 

1.5 

2.8 

-0.9 

1.9 

-1.6 

0.3 

-0.7 

-0.4 

-1.8 

-2.2 

-2.3 

-4.5 

-3.0 

-7.5 

-3.6 

-11.1 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

71.1 

68.8 

69.1 

63.8 

65.9 

63.9 

62.7 

64.4 

59.4 

62.7 

57.5 

59.6 

53.9 

56.4 

50.4 

53.2 

46.8 

50.0 

43.3 

46.8 

81.6 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

2.4 

2.4 

5.3 

7.7 

2.0 

9.7 

-1.8 

7.9 

-3.3 

4.6 

-2.1 

2.5 

-2.4 

0.1 

-2.8 

-2.7 

-3.2 

-5.9 

-3.6 

-9.5 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

11.4 

2.5 

15.4 

3.8 

27.1 

25.1 

25.2 

24.5 

24.5 

23.4 

23.9 

23.6 

23.3 

23.6 

22.8 

23.4 

22.1 

23.3 

21.5 

23.1 

20.8 

23.0 

20.1 

22.8 

22.3 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

54 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Croatia 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Cyprus 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Czechia 

2.0 

2.0 

0.6 

2.6 

1.1 

3.7 

0.3 

4.0 

-0.3 

3.7 

-0.6 

3.1 

-1.1 

2.0 

-1.6 

0.4 

-2.2 

-1.8 

-2.7 

-4.5 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

17.7 

18.7 

16.5 

19.2 

16.4 

16.3 

16.2 

16.1 

16.0 

15.9 

17.0 

15.8 

16.5 

15.6 

16.0 

15.4 

15.5 

15.2 

15.0 

15.0 

18.1 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

-1.0 

-1.0 

-2.7 

-3.7 

0.1 

-3.6 

0.1 

-3.5 

0.0 

-3.5 

1.2 

-2.2 

0.9 

-1.3 

0.6 

-0.7 

0.3 

-0.4 

0.1 

-0.3 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

4.1 

4.4 

4.0 

4.4 

3.8 

4.5 

3.7 

4.3 

3.6 

4.3 

3.9 

4.3 

3.6 

4.2 

3.4 

4.1 

3.1 

4.0 

2.9 

3.3 

4.3 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

-0.3 

-0.3 

-0.5 

-0.8 

-0.6 

-1.4 

-0.6 

-2.0 

-0.7 

-2.8 

-0.4 

-3.2 

-0.6 

-3.8 

-0.7 

-4.5 

-0.9 

-5.4 

-0.4 

-5.8 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

0.0 

4.1 

0.0 

0.9 

0.0 

0.6 

55 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Denmark 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Estonia 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

0.0 

2.6 

8.1 

14.6 

66.0 

61.5 

60.9 

60.6 

59.3 

61.2 

57.7 

56.7 

56.1 

56.6 

56.4 

55.7 

54.3 

54.7 

52.3 

53.8 

50.2 

52.8 

48.1 

43.4 

65.0 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

4.4 

4.4 

0.3 

4.7 

-1.9 

2.8 

1.0 

3.8 

-0.5 

3.3 

0.8 

4.1 

-0.4 

3.7 

-1.5 

2.2 

-2.7 

-0.5 

4.7 

4.2 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

32.1 

31.9 

31.3 

30.7 

29.9 

30.3 

28.5 

28.3 

27.1 

27.2 

27.1 

26.1 

25.4 

25.0 

23.6 

24.1 

21.9 

23.3 

20.2 

22.4 

40.4 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

0.3 

0.3 

0.6 

0.8 

-0.4 

0.4 

0.2 

0.6 

0.0 

0.6 

0.9 

1.5 

0.4 

1.9 

-0.5 

1.4 

-1.4 

0.0 

-2.3 

-2.2 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

6.2 

5.7 

6.0 

5.5 

5.8 

6.0 

5.7 

5.7 

5.5 

5.6 

5.4 

5.6 

5.2 

5.5 

5.0 

5.5 

4.9 

5.4 

4.7 

5.3 

6.2 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

0.5 

0.5 

0.5 

1.0 

-0.2 

0.8 

0.0 

0.8 

-0.1 

0.7 

-0.2 

0.5 

-0.3 

0.2 

-0.4 

-0.2 

-0.6 

-0.8 

-0.6 

-1.4 

ETS flexibility 

0.0 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

56 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Finland 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

France 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Germany 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

0.9 

6.9 

4.5 

0.0 

58.2 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

28.8 

27.2 

28.0 

26.5 

26.6 

25.1 

25.3 

23.1 

23.9 

22.2 

23.0 

21.6 

21.6 

20.8 

20.1 

20.0 

18.7 

19.3 

17.2 

18.5 

34.4 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

1.6 

1.6 

1.4 

3.1 

1.5 

4.6 

2.2 

6.8 

1.7 

8.5 

1.4 

9.9 

0.8 

10.7 

0.1 

10.8 

-0.6 

10.2 

-1.2 

8.9 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

335.7 

320.2 

326.5 

306.2 

312.0 

297.8 

297.5 

299.6 

283.0 

297.1 

273.0 

291.0 

257.4 

285.0 

241.8 

278.9 

226.2 

272.8 

210.6 

215.0 

401.1 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

15.5 

15.5 

20.4 

35.8 

14.2 

50.0 

-2.1 

47.9 

-14.1 

33.9 

-18.1 

15.8 

-27.6 

-11.8 

-37.1 

-48.8 

-46.6 

-95.4 

-4.4 

-99.8 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

427.3 

403.8 

413.2 

395.0 

391.9 

383.4 

370.5 

369.6 

349.2 

360.1 

339.5 

350.7 

315.2 

338.2 

290.9 

323.9 

266.7 

306.8 

242.4 

287.5 

484.7 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

23.5 

18.3 

8.4 

0.9 

-10.9 

-11.3 

-23.0 

-33.0 

-40.1 

-45.1 

57 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Greece 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Hungary 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Ireland 

Estimated AEAs 

0.0 

22.3 

0.0 

6.7 

0.0 

2.1 

23.5 

41.8 

50.2 

51.1 

40.2 

28.9 

5.9 

-27.1 

-67.2 

-112.3 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

46.2 

44.4 

47.0 

46.3 

47.2 

45.3 

47.4 

43.1 

47.6 

43.0 

46.5 

42.5 

47.1 

42.0 

47.6 

41.6 

48.2 

41.1 

48.7 

34.0 

63.0 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

1.8 

1.8 

0.7 

2.5 

1.9 

4.4 

4.3 

8.7 

4.6 

13.4 

4.0 

17.4 

5.0 

22.5 

6.1 

28.5 

7.1 

35.6 

14.7 

50.2 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

49.9 

46.1 

43.3 

44.0 

42.8 

40.8 

42.2 

43.5 

41.7 

43.4 

41.9 

43.1 

41.2 

42.8 

40.4 

42.5 

39.6 

42.2 

38.9 

35.9 

47.8 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

3.8 

3.8 

-0.6 

3.2 

2.0 

5.2 

-1.2 

3.9 

-1.8 

2.1 

-1.2 

0.9 

-1.7 

-0.7 

-2.1 

-2.8 

-2.6 

-5.4 

3.0 

-2.4 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

43.5 

42.4 

40.5 

38.7 

36.8 

38.8 

36.0 

33.2 

30.4 

27.7 

58 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Italy 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Latvia 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

47.7 

46.4 

45.9 

42.8 

44.3 

43.3 

42.0 

40.6 

39.1 

37.5 

35.6 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

-2.9 

-2.9 

-3.5 

-6.5 

-2.3 

-8.8 

-5.6 

-6.4 

-3.2 

-4.6 

-5.8 

-7.0 

-7.9 

-14.3 

-20.8 

-24.0 

-28.5 

-34.4 

-41.4 

-49.3 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

273.5 

279.9 

268.8 

271.5 

259.4 

266.6 

250.1 

262.6 

240.7 

252.1 

244.3 

246.6 

231.7 

234.9 

219.1 

223.9 

206.5 

213.8 

193.9 

203.7 

343.1 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

-6.4 

-6.4 

-2.7 

-9.2 

-7.2 

-16.4 

-12.6 

-28.9 

-11.4 

-40.3 

-2.3 

-3.2 

-4.9 

-7.3 

-9.8 

-42.6 

-45.8 

-50.7 

-58.0 

-67.7 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

19.1 

26.8 

0.0 

11.5 

10.6 

8.7 

8.9 

8.4 

8.6 

8.3 

8.4 

7.8 

8.2 

7.7 

8.0 

7.5 

7.8 

7.3 

7.6 

7.2 

7.3 

7.0 

7.1 

6.8 

8.6 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

2.0 

2.0 

0.4 

2.4 

0.4 

2.8 

0.6 

3.4 

0.6 

3.9 

0.5 

4.5 

0.4 

4.9 

0.4 

5.3 

0.3 

5.6 

0.3 

5.9 

ETS flexibility 

0.0 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

59 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Lithuania 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Luxembourg 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Malta 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

3.1 

0.0 

6.5 

4.0 

0.3 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

16.1 

14.2 

13.7 

13.9 

13.3 

13.6 

12.9 

13.6 

12.4 

13.1 

12.6 

12.6 

12.0 

12.0 

11.5 

11.5 

10.9 

10.9 

10.3 

10.3 

13.1 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

1.9 

1.9 

-0.2 

1.7 

-0.3 

1.5 

-0.8 

0.7 

-0.7 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.1 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.1 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

10.1 

8.4 

8.1 

8.1 

7.1 

7.8 

6.9 

7.4 

6.7 

7.0 

6.4 

6.5 

6.0 

6.2 

5.6 

5.8 

5.3 

5.4 

4.9 

5.1 

4.5 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

0.3 

0.3 

1.1 

1.4 

0.9 

2.3 

0.6 

2.9 

0.6 

3.5 

0.5 

4.0 

0.5 

4.5 

0.5 

5.0 

0.5 

5.6 

0.6 

6.2 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

2.1 

1.3 

1.2 

1.5 

1.2 

1.3 

1.1 

1.5 

1.1 

1.5 

1.2 

1.5 

1.1 

1.5 

1.0 

1.5 

0.9 

1.5 

0.8 

1.5 

1.0 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

0.7 

-0.2 

-0.1 

-0.3 

-0.4 

-0.3 

-0.4 

-0.5 

-0.6 

-0.7 

60 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Netherlands 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Poland 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Portugal 

Estimated AEAs 

0.5 

0.0 

0.0 

13.4 

0.0 

21.7 

0.7 

0.5 

0.4 

0.0 

-0.3 

-0.6 

-1.0 

-1.5 

-2.0 

-2.7 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

128.1 

98.5 

92.9 

96.7 

84.8 

92.9 

84.1 

89.2 

88.3 

85.4 

87.6 

79.8 

85.8 

76.5 

84.0 

73.2 

82.2 

69.9 

80.4 

66.6 

78.6 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

5.6 

5.6 

11.8 

17.4 

8.8 

26.3 

0.8 

27.1 

-2.2 

24.9 

-5.9 

19.0 

-7.4 

11.6 

-9.0 

2.6 

-10.5 

-7.9 

-12.0 

-19.8 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

215.0 

207.3 

204.4 

196.2 

198.6 

200.4 

192.9 

191.9 

187.1 

188.2 

185.9 

186.3 

179.0 

184.4 

172.1 

182.5 

165.3 

180.6 

158.4 

165.3 

192.5 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

7.7 

7.7 

8.1 

15.9 

-1.8 

14.1 

1.0 

15.0 

-1.0 

14.0 

-0.4 

13.6 

-5.4 

8.2 

-10.3 

-2.1 

-15.3 

-17.4 

-6.9 

-24.3 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

42.5 

40.8 

40.1 

39.3 

38.5 

37.9 

37.1 

36.3 

35.5 

34.7 

61 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Romania 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Slovakia 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

48.6 

39.9 

39.8 

39.6 

36.9 

36.6 

34.9 

33.3 

31.6 

29.9 

28.2 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

2.6 

2.6 

1.0 

3.6 

0.4 

4.1 

2.4 

6.5 

1.9 

8.4 

3.0 

11.4 

3.9 

15.3 

4.8 

20.1 

5.6 

25.7 

6.5 

32.3 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

87.9 

82.8 

76.9 

81.4 

75.8 

81.2 

74.8 

80.4 

73.7 

75.1 

76.9 

74.6 

74.8 

73.4 

72.6 

71.8 

70.5 

69.8 

68.3 

66.3 

78.2 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

5.0 

5.0 

-4.4 

0.6 

-5.4 

-4.8 

-5.7 

-1.4 

-10.4 

-11.8 

2.3 

-9.5 

1.4 

-8.1 

0.8 

-7.3 

0.7 

-6.6 

2.0 

-4.6 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

0.0 

5.2 

0.0 

13.2 

23.4 

20.3 

21.2 

19.6 

20.7 

19.8 

20.3 

20.7 

19.9 

20.2 

19.2 

20.4 

18.9 

20.5 

18.5 

20.6 

18.2 

20.4 

17.9 

20.5 

23.1 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

3.1 

3.1 

1.5 

4.6 

0.9 

5.5 

-0.4 

5.2 

-0.3 

4.9 

-1.2 

3.7 

-1.6 

2.1 

-2.0 

0.1 

-2.2 

-2.2 

-2.6 

-4.7 

ETS flexibility 

0.0 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

62 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Slovenia 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Spain 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

Sweden 

Estimated AEAs 

Emissions 

LULUCF debit (2021-
2025) 

Distance to target 

1.2 

0.0 

1.3 

0.0 

29.1 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

11.4 

10.4 

11.1 

10.8 

10.8 

10.1 

10.5 

10.2 

10.2 

10.1 

9.8 

9.9 

9.5 

9.6 

9.3 

9.4 

9.0 

9.1 

8.7 

8.4 

11.8 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

1.0 

1.0 

0.4 

1.4 

0.8 

2.1 

0.3 

2.4 

0.1 

2.5 

-0.1 

2.4 

-0.1 

2.3 

-0.1 

2.2 

-0.1 

2.1 

0.3 

2.4 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

201.0 

194.7 

198.7 

194.8 

192.8 

191.3 

186.9 

175.9 

181.0 

171.0 

178.4 

163.6 

171.7 

156.2 

164.9 

148.7 

158.2 

141.2 

151.5 

134.1 

242.0 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

6.3 

6.3 

3.8 

10.2 

1.5 

11.7 

11.0 

22.7 

10.0 

32.6 

14.8 

47.4 

15.5 

62.9 

16.2 

79.2 

17.0 

96.1 

17.4 

113.5 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

31.3 

29.1 

30.7 

27.3 

29.6 

26.9 

28.5 

28.2 

27.3 

28.7 

25.5 

27.8 

24.6 

26.9 

23.6 

26.0 

22.6 

25.1 

21.6 

24.2 

43.2 

Pursuant to Art 9(2) ESR, AEAs are reduced by the debit generated under the LULUCF Regulation in the period 2021-2025. See chapter 4 of 
the main report. 

2.3 

3.4 

2.7 

0.2 

-1.4 

-2.2 

-2.3 

-2.4 

-2.5 

-2.6 

63 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Cumulative balance of 
AEAs 

ETS flexibility 

Maximum LULUCF 
flexibility 

2.3 

5.7 

8.4 

8.7 

7.3 

5.1 

2.7 

0.3 

-2.1 

-4.7 

5.2 

4.9 

Amount of ETS flexibility as per Commission Implementing Decision 2020/2126 and available over the 10-year period 2021-
2030. 

The availability of LULUCF flexibility depends on the amount of LULUCF credits generated under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The use of the available LULUCF flexibility is limited to 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 
2021-2025 and 50% of the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility in the period 2026-2030. 

64 

 
  
  
  
  
Key messages  

BOX ON WASTE EMISSIONS 

•  While  the  waste  sector  accounts  for  3%  of  total  EU  greenhouse  gas  (GHG)  emissions,  the 

better use of waste as a resource can help reduce emissions in other sectors. 

•  Member  States  should  quantify  and  better  integrate  achieved  and  expected  emission 

reductions of waste and circular economy policies. 

•  The  consumption-based  (non-territorial)  impacts  –  in  additional  to  territorial  impacts  –  are 

sometimes key to understanding the potential of circular economy policies. 

1. Scope of waste sector 
Achieving  the  EU’s  2050  net-zero  climate  target  demands  actions  across  all  economic  sectors.  These 
include actions related to materials and how we produce, use, re-circulate and dispose of them. We can 
track  emissions  of  these  actions  under  the  Waste  management  sector  in  the  officially  reported  GHG 
inventories 70. The sector includes: 

solid waste disposal; 

incineration and open burning of waste; 

• 
•  biological treatment of solid waste; 
• 
•  wastewater treatment and discharge (further excluded from this box to keep focus on solid waste). 
Emissions from energy recovery of waste, processing recycled materials and transporting waste are not 
reported  in  the  waste  sector  but  in  the  energy,  manufacturing  and  transport  sectors.  Therefore,  actual 
emissions  generated  by  waste  are  in  fact  higher  than  reported  waste  emissions,  which  shows  its  cross-
sectoral  nature.  This  box  focuses  mainly  on  emissions  from  the  waste  sector,  other  aspects  like 
environmental impacts (natural resources, pollution etc.) are not subject of this text. 

2. Waste emissions trends 
While the waste sector accounts for a small part of total EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (i.e.  about 
3%  of  total  GHG  emissions  and  around  5%  of  the  emissions  covered  by  the  EU  Effort  Sharing 
Regulation) reducing GHG emissions from waste also has positive effects on our lives and a better use of 
waste as a resource (by substituting virgin raw materials) can help reduce emissions in other sectors. In 
2022,  emissions  were  30%  below  the level of 2005. Over the  same  period,  emissions from solid  waste 
disposal  (currently  representing  more  than  2/3  of  waste  emissions)  declined  by  35%,  while  wastewater 
treatment (close to a fifth of current waste emissions) were down by 23%, with a minor contribution from 
industrial  wastewater  (i.e.  -5%).  Conversely,  the  emissions  from  the  biological  treatment  and  from  the 
open burning of solid waste have increased (i.e. by 86% and 32%, respectively). Waste sector emissions 
could decrease further once all current EU waste policies are fully implemented. The speed of reduction 
should slight increase, from an average annual reduction of around 2.7 MtCO2-eq to 2.9 MtCO2-eq up to 
2030  and  further  increase  to  3.2  MtCO2-eq  between  2030  and  2040,  according  to  the  Commission 
analysis supporting the Communication on the 2040 target. 

70 Source  sector  CRF5  Waste  management  in  IPCC  2006  Guidelines.  Guidelines  are  available  at  Publications  -  IPCC-TFI 
(iges.or.jp). 

65 

 
 
Figure 8.1: EU GHG emissions from waste (2005 to 2022), by subsectors, plus GHG projections up to 2040 and model-based 
indicative contribution of the waste sector in achieving the EU climate target. 

3. Behind emissions trends 
Emissions from waste are driven not only by waste generation but also by several other underlying factors 
ranging from the emission intensity and composition of the waste-to-waste treatment methods. First, we 
can  look  at  emission  intensity  –  emissions  per  tonne  of  solid  waste.  Since  there  is  a  strong  correlation 
between  emission  intensity  and  total  emissions,  Members  States  should  focus  on  the  reduction  of 
emission  intensity  of  their  waste  management  systems,  bearing  in  mind  that  waste  prevention  and 
reduction should always be prioritized according to the waste hierarchy. The differences among Member 
States  are  substantial  (see  Figure  8.2).  Croatia  produces  nearly  seven  times  more  GHG  emissions  per 
tonne of solid waste than the EU average. On the other hand, Estonia, Belgium, and Poland produce less 
than a quarter of the EU average. 

Figure 8.2: Emission intensity of solid waste (kgCO2e/tonne) (average 2017-2021) 

66 

 
A  similar  picture  is  visible  if  we  look  at  GHG  emissions  per  capita.  Again,  emissions  per  capita  show 
visible  differences.  Cyprus  emits  three  times  more  GHG  per  capita  than  EU  average  and  eleven  times 
more than Germany, which has the lowest emissions. On this matter, the EEA concludes that waste sector 
GHG emissions would decrease by 53% from the 2021 level if all Member States reduce their emissions 
just to the average per-capita emissions of five best performing countries (Germany, Sweden, Belgium, 
Poland and Austria). 
If  we  combine  emission  intensity  with  waste  generation,  we  get  another  interesting  insight:  there  is  no 
clear correlation between these two metrics (see  Figure 8.3). Member States with the highest municipal 
waste production (Austria, Denmark) have below-average emissions. This indicates that despite the high 
volume  of  waste,  their  waste  management  is  very  effective  in  terms  of  GHG  emissions.  On  the  other 
hand, low volume of waste does not necessarily mean low emission. Romania could be a good example of 
this – it has the lowest municipal waste production, but emissions are above the EU average. 

Figure 8.3: Emissions in waste management and municipal waste generation 

67 

 
 
4. Policies and measures 
In  addition  to  and  in  implementation  of  relevant  European  directives  such  as  the  Waste  Framework 
Directive, the Industrial Emissions Directive, and the Landfill Directive, EU Member States reported over 
200 policies and measures related to the waste sector in 2023. These measures focus on various parts of 
the waste chain, including waste prevention, preparation for reuse, recycling, energy recovery, and, to a 
lesser extent, disposal; and were mostly linked to municipal waste and organic waste types  - which are 
mostly linked with generating emissions from landfills and biological treatment. 
Regulatory policies are the most commonly reported by Member States and most are linked to EU policy 
–  specially  the  Waste  Framework  Directive  and  Landfill  Directive;  reflecting  the  substantial  regulatory 
requirements in EU waste policy to be met by countries. 
Only 15% of waste sector policies and measures have been reported with impact data (i.e., how effective 
they  were  at  reducing  GHG  emission).  Nearly  all  policies  with  impact  data  refer  to  the  reduction  of 
emissions from landfills. Furthermore, when comparing historical GHG emission data with implemented 
policies,  there  was  a  correlation  between  countries  that  had  introduced  landfill  bans  on  landfilling 
biodegradable  waste  and  achieving  the  largest  waste  sector  emission  reductions.  Ireland  is  the  only 
exception  to  this.  It  has  a  high  landfill  tax  and  targets  specific  waste  streams  through  a national  waste 
prevention programme while also achieving high emission reduction. 
Figure 8.4: Number of reported policies and measures by category (EU, 2023) 

5. Circular economy in the spotlight 
The emissions reported under the  waste sector focus on the direct reduction of emissions linked to less 
waste  and  better  waste  management.  However,  the  emission  reduction  potential  of  a  more  circular 
economy – where the value of products and materials is retained for as long as possible – goes beyond 
just the waste sector. 

The circular economy could reduce demand for virgin materials and thus reduce emissions of extraction 
and processing of these materials. However, emissions from these activities are reported under industry 71. 
On the other hand, a higher share of renewable energy could reduce the impacts of energy-intensive parts 
of  the  circular  economy  such  as  material  waste  recovery.  Total  emissions  can  only  be  reduced  through 
coordinated policies along the whole value chain from design, production, consumption, and waste reuse. 

71 Source sector CRF2 Industrial processes and product use in IPCC 2006 Guidelines. Guidelines are available at Publications - 
IPCC-TFI (iges.or.jp). 

68 

 
 
The circular economy has a cross-cutting character and is therefore considered a prerequisite for climate 
neutrality in the Circular Economy Action Plan 72. 

The  cross-cutting  character  has  one  significant  difficulty.  As  indicated  in  the  previous  section,  the 
potential  emission  reductions  due  to  circular  economy  measures  are  usually  unquantified,  hidden,  or 
poorly  captured  in  the  reporting  of  policies  and  measures  for  reducing  GHG  emissions  (only  6%  of 
reported policies are considered circular economy-related). For example, if glass waste is collected and 
processed  into  recyclables  and  used  as  secondary  raw  material  in  producing  new  glass,  then  the  glass 
industry needs less energy than that used for producing the same glass from virgin materials. However, 
such  processes  are  seldom  reported  as  circular  economy  measures in  the relevant  manufacturing  sector 
and  their  potential  might  be  underestimated.  Moreover,  realising  such  potential  requires  collaboration 
along the whole value chain and across sectors. 

In addition to the challenges faced by the cross-sectoral nature of circular economy-related policies and 
measures  is  their  cross-border  nature:  materials  consumed  in  one  country  may  have  been  extracted  in 
another. Therefore, the benefits of circular actions - from an emissions perspective - may not be entirely 
taking place within the national entity implementing the policy or measure. Consumption-based emission 
accounting  can  track  how  policies  and  measures  effect  GHG  emissions  across  entire  value  chains  and 
national  entities.  However,  as  international  reporting  focus  on  territorial-based  emissions,  it  is  not 
appropriate  to  incorporate  this  new  logic  into  regular  reporting.  Nevertheless,  to  understand  the  full 
benefits of the circular economy in policy making it is an important additional step for Member States to 
undertake in their national policy assessments. 

Sources: 
EEA. Briefing no. 25/2023. Capturing the climate change mitigation benefits of circular economy and 
waste sector policies and measures EN HTML: TH-AM-24-002-EN-Q - ISBN: 978-92-9480-626-0 - 
ISSN: 2467-3196 - doi: 10.2800/512574. 

72 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee 
and  the  Committee  of  the  Regions:  A  new  Circular  Economy  Action  Plan  For  a  cleaner  and  more  competitive  Europe. 
COM/2020/98 final 

69 

 
 
 
 
9   LULUCF 

The revised LULUCF regulation sets two compliance periods:  

•  From 2021 to 2025: the assessment of Member States’ progress is based on ‘accounted’ 
emissions and removals in the land sector, taking into account historical benchmarks for 
land use activities, such as the Forest Reference Level for sustainable forest management. 
Across all land categories, a Member State has to fulfil the ‘no-debit’ rule, meaning that 
the ‘accounted’ emissions do not exceed ‘accounted’ removals. If a Member State shows 
more accounted emissions than accounted removals, it has a ‘debit’ and is therefore not 
in  line  with  the  ‘no-debit’  rule.  Conversely,  if  a  Member  State  shows  more  accounted 
removals  than  accounted  emissions,  it  has  a  ‘credit’  and  therefore  meets  the  ‘no-debit’ 
rule requirement. If the ‘no-debit’ rule is not met in a Member State, it will be able to use 
a number of flexibilities to compensate for the net debit (e.g. by purchasing credits from 
other Member States). If a net debit remains from the first compliance period, even after 
using all flexibilities, this debit will be moved to the ESR account of the Member State.  

•  From  2026  to  2030:  the  reporting  rules  are  simplified  and  are  based  on  the  sum  of 
reported  emissions  and  removals  in  all  land  categories,  with  the  historical  benchmarks 
completely abolished. The revised EU target requires that the EU increases its land-based 
net removals by additional -42 MtCO2eq by 2030 as compared to the yearly average of 
the period 2016-2018. This target is then distributed among Member States by means of 
binding  national  targets  for  2030  in  a  way  that  requires  each  Member  State  to  increase 
their ambition in national agriculture and forestry policies73. 

There are several flexibilities Member States can make use of under the LULUCF Regulation. 
The general  flexibilities include the  flexibility with  the ESR, as well as transfers of LULUCF 
surpluses among Member States. If a Member State fails to meet its LULUCF target or budget, it 
can  deduct  annual  emission  allocations  under  ESR  and  transfer  them  to  LULUCF,  up  to  the 
amount  required  to  meet  its  target.  If  a  Member  State  outperforms  its  LULUCF  target  and 
budget, it can transfer its LULUCF surplus to another Member State. 

For  the  period  2021  to  2025,  specifically,  Member  States  have  access  to  the  managed  forest 
land  flexibility mechanism, subject to the EU as a whole meeting the ‘no-debit’ commitment. 
Member  States  can  compensate  excess  accounted  emissions  from  forest  land  provided  they 
include  measures  to  ensure  conservation  or  the  increase  in  forest  sinks  in  their  long-term 
strategies under the Governance Regulation, or they provide evidence of natural disturbances and 
plan measures to prevent or mitigate similar events in the future. 

For the period 2026 to 2030, in addition to the general flexibilities, the land use mechanism can 
be used by Member States that do not meet their target, subject to the EU, as a whole, meeting its 
2030 target.  This  includes compensation  for natural  disturbances  as well as a flexibility  due to 
the  negative  effects  of  long-term  effects  of  climate  change  or  the  negative  effects  of  an 
exceptionally high proportion of organic soils on land removals. 

73 Handbook on the updated LULUCF Regulation EU 2018/841 - Guidance and orientation for the implementation of the updated 
regulation - Version 2 (europa.eu) 

70 

 
 
Table 9.1: LULUCF accounted emissions and removals for 2021 and 2022 (2023 submission 
per Member State and land category), in ktCO2eq 74 

s
d
n
a
l
t
e
W

Total  
(2021-2022) 

t
s
e
r
o
F

t
n
e
m
e
g
a
n
a
M

d
e
t
s
e
r
o
f
e
D

d
n
a
L

d
e
t
s
e
r
o
f
f
A

d
n
a
L

-8 088.9  

2 650.9  

-2 829.9  

- 465.3  

1 509.6  

-8 300.6  

 97.1  

 100.8  

 16.3  

- 611.1  

- 482.8  

- 35.5  

23 749.1  

 505.1  

-1 129.7  

d
n
a
l
p
o
r
C

t
n
e
m
e
g
a
n
a
M

 908.4  

 390.3  

 844.9  

- 6.8  

- 57.9  

d
n
a
l
s
s
a
r
G

t
n
e
m
e
g
a
n
a
M

- 656.0  

- 170.9  

2 159.4  

 14.0  

- 305.4  

-21 887.8  

1 308.1  

 303.6  

- 164.1  

-7 156.0  

- 135.2  

-5 537.6  

 83.2  

 303.5  

 671.2  

-2 679.4  

-5 932.4  

- 509.3  

1 242.3  

-3 678.6  

2 704.6  

-19 448.8  

-7 538.7  

17 329.4  

5 486.8  

- 328.1  

1 851.4  

62 049.7  

28 422.2  

-23 117.2  

-15 765.2  

 109.4  

 177.7  

 178.9  

- 143.2  

4 053.0  

- 85.0  

-1 364.4  

-3 333.0  

 685.3  

-2 867.3  

-8 503.3  

 828.0  

-7 400.5  

-3 111.0  

- 474.9  

- 479.0  

-2 204.0  

-6 195.0  

 20.3  

 734.3  

- 219.3  

- 162.0  

3 938.5  

-8 438.6  

 148.6  

-2 399.2  

-3 024.1  

 89.0  

 48.9  

 622.4  

 382.2  

 29.6  

- 21.4  

- 445.9  

- 0.3  

- 72.9  

 127.6  

- 14.9  

-3 090.5  

2 427.1  

 0.1  

- 0.7  

- 233.8  

 366.1  

- 758.8  

-2 403.9  

4 299.1  

1 505.1  

 53.5  

- 144.4  

 1.6  

 916.3  

1 653.4  

-1 297.5  

-2 011.1  

-2 077.6  

-5 502.7  

3 741.4  

-3 556.3  

-1 510.5  

 354.4  

20 681.7  

1 903.5  

-3 110.9  

-1 338.4  

-2 750.9  

-10 243.6  

2 318.6  

-3 101.9  

-26 134.8  

-7 860.0  

-18 700.2  

5 335.6  

-1 144.8  

6 157.2  

-3 061.8  

 649.4  

 115.9  

- 254.6  

- 683.1  

 577.5  

- 66.5  

- 181.4  

 335.3  

 208.0  

 504.7  

e
t
a
t
S

r
e
b
m
e
M

AT  
BE  
BG  
CY  
CZ  
DE  
DK  
EE  
ES  
FI  
FR  
GR  
HR  
HU  
IE  
IT  
LT  
LU  
LV  
MT  
NL  
PL  
PT  
RO  
SE  
SI  
SK  
EU 

-8 015.5  

 652.5  

-5 678.4  

 85.1  

22 761.2  

-27 731.4  

-13 736.5  

1 665.2  

-27 782.7  

24 196.4  

55 642.5  

-4 008.1  

-3 510.9  

-8 984.6  

-8 366.8  

-7 763.7  

-6 880.6  

- 486.1  

-1 126.1  

- 14.3  

-2 816.5  

-6 473.8  

15 384.9  

-45 021.8  

-13 596.7  

6 693.5  

-3 305.7  

-68 218.9 

74 Computation of the accounting status for each Member State and the EU. The method continued the approach applied under 
the Kyoto Protocol period (2013 to 2020). However, the accounting approach for the period 2021 to 2025 is new and differs from 
the Kyoto exercise. The accounting follows the specifications laid out in Regulation 2018/841: Article 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 8 and 9. The 
input data for this analysis has been extracted from the EU Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 2024 for 1990-2022 based on final 
Member  States’  inventory  submissions  under  the  EU  Governance  Regulation  (GHGI).  The  computation  of  accounting  results 
combines the relevant data from the final GHGI in accordance with the rules laid out in the above articles (Reported data for the 
years 2005 to 2009 and 2021-2022, from Section 4 of the GHGI). This analysis provides an approximate estimate of the status of 
a Member State’s trend towards compliance with its article 4(1) commitment. It also provides a collective status of achievement 
of  the  article  4  commitment,  an  element  that  is  needed  to  determine  if  the  flexibility  through  article  13  of  the  regulation  is 
available (See Regulation 2018/841 Art 13(2)(b)). Numbers in table rounded up. Calculations cover emissions and removals of 
the greenhouse gases listed in Section A of Annex I to Regulation 2018/841 

71 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10  PREPAREDNESS FOR AND RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE 

IMPACTS 

10.1 EUROPEAN CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT (EUCRA) 

Climate hazards will continue to increase in the coming decades and beyond due to the inertia of 
the climate system,  even if ambitious global emission cuts  reduce the potential  damage.  In the 
best-case  scenario  where  we  limit  global  warming  to  1.5  degrees  above  pre-industrial  levels, 
Europe will have to learn to live with climate that is 3 degrees warmer, and consequently cope 
with exponentially more heatwaves and other weather extremes. 
Figure 10.1: Observed and projected temperature increase over European land area 

72 

 
 
 
 
The  fact  that  climate  hazards  interact  with  non-climatic  risk  drivers  underlines  the  need  for 
systems-approaches. 

Figure 10.2: Methodological framework of EUCRA  75 

75 Source: EEA. 

73 

 
 
 
 
 
Granular  assessment  of  changes  in  climate  impact  drivers  is  the  basis  for  considering  climate 
risks.  

Table 10.1: Projected change in climate impact drivers in Europe 

74 

 
 
 
 
A  structured  risk  assessment  considers  climate  hazards,  exposure  and  vulnerability,  as  well  as 
policy readiness. 

Table 10.2: Risk assessment for 36 major climate risks for Europe 76  

76 Source : EEA 

75 

 
 
 
76 

 
 
 
 
EUCRA risk assessments make it possible to identify key considerations for EU policies. 

Table 10.3: EU policies with high adaptation potential, based on their links to major climate risks 77.  

77 Source: EEA. 

77 

 
 
 
 
 
10.2  THE EU MISSION ON ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE 

In the face of unprecedented challenges  posed by climate change, the EU has embarked on  an 
ambitious journey towards a sustainable and resilient future. The EU Mission on Adaptation to 
Climate  Change  under  Horizon  Europe,  the  EU’s  key  funding  programme  for  research  and 
innovation, is a significant pillar in this transformative endeavour. Supporting European regions, 
cities,  and  local  authorities  in  their  efforts  to  build  resilience  against  the  impacts  of  climate 
change,  the  Mission  aims  to  support  at  least  150  European  regions  and  communities  in  their 
work to achieve climate resilience by 2030.  

The Mission provides broad support to European regions, local authorities, and communities in 
preparing and planning climate resilience solutions. This support includes the Mission Portal, an 
online  platform  which  provides  data,  knowledge,  and  decision-making  support;  showcases 
success stories; and informs on webinars, news and events related to the Mission. 

Mission Charter signatories 

solutions 

EU  countries,  regions  and  cities  have  an 
essential  role  to  play  in  implementing  the 
Mission,  because  they  are  key  agents  of 
change  in  deploying  new  technologies  and 
experimenting 
that 
innovative 
address  regional  and  local  needs.  Regional 
and local authorities that share the Mission’s 
ambition  have  signalled  their  interest  in 
signing  the  Mission  Charter  and  joining  the 
Mission.  They  have  declared  their  interest 
and 
cooperate,  mobilise 
resources  and  develop  activities  in  their 
respective region and communities to achieve 
their adaptation goals. 

readiness 

to 

Other  entities,  such  as  research  institutions, 

78 

 
 
academics,  practitioners,  or  businesses,  have  been  invited  to  endorse  the  Charter  and  join  the 
Mission’s network of organisations working together towards climate resilience as Friends of the 
Mission. 

The 311 signatories of the Mission Charter as of autumn 2024 include: 294 EU regions and local 
authorities  from  25  EU  Member  States;  and  17  regions  and  local  authorities  from  Horizon 
Europe’s Associated Countries. There are an additional 63 Friends of the Mission. 

Mission projects 

The Charter signatories, Friends of the Mission and wider European regions and local authorities 
are supported by 43 Mission-funded projects and well over 100 Mission-related projects. These 
projects  are  at  the  forefront  of  research  and  development  in  innovative  climate  adaptation  and 
resilience  approaches.  They  go  beyond  theory  by  delivering  practical  and  tangible  outcomes 
through  guidance,  tools,  data,  and  on-the-ground  experimentation,  and  by  implementing 
solutions  identified  in  the  Mission  case  studies.  By  providing  essential  resources  through  its 
centralised  implementation  platform,  MIP4Adapt 78 ,  and  the  Mission  projects,  the  Mission 
empowers regional and local authorities to accelerate their climate preparedness. 

Project CLIMAAX - Better understanding climate risk at the regional level 79 

The  EU-funded  CLIMAAX  project  embodies  the  urgency  of  supporting  cities  and  regions  in 
carrying  out  accurate  risk  assessments  as  this  is  critical  to  building  up  the  EU’s  resilience  to 
climate  change.  Many  European  regions  and  communities  have  limited  experience  in  and 
resources for integrating the available local and global data, models and  concepts into context-
specific climate risk assessments. The CLIMAAX project addresses this issue. 

78 https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/mission/the-mission/about-mip4adapt 
79 https://www.climaax.eu/ 

79 

 
 
 
A toolbox for climate resilience 

The project is built on three key elements: 

•  a framework for regional risk assessments, which can be applied anywhere and takes into 

account diverse conditions and challenges on the ground; 

•  a  free,  open  and  pan-European  toolbox  designed  to  enable  regions  to  access  European 

data sets and overlay these with their own local data; and 

• 

funding to carry out regional risk assessments, using CLIMAAX tools. 

Project RESIST - Accelerating the delivery of climate adaptation solutions 80 

Every city faces its own unique climate risks. By pairing regions across Europe, the EU-funded 
RESIST project aims to share best practices and solutions for building resilience against climate 
change impacts. The  impact  of climate change is already being felt:  from flooding in Spain to 
wildfires  in  Greece  and  scorching  heatwaves  across  much  of  Europe.  The  RESIST  project  is 
focused on providing climate change solutions geared towards specific regions, cities and local 
authorities,  which  each  have  their  own  unique  socio-economic  profile  and  are  facing  climate-
related challenges such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires and soil erosion. 

Multistranded approach 

The  project  applies  the  ‘quintuple  helix’  innovation  model,  which  emphasises  the  role  of 
interactions  between  academia,  business,  government,  citizens  and  the  environment.  The 
project’s management is confident that this approach will result in over 100 new and innovative 
climate adaptation solutions being developed during the project. The innovations, which will be 
developed with the support of the project’s research and industry partners, will be tested in four 
EU  regions:  South-West  Finland,  Central  Denmark,  Catalonia  and  Central  Portugal.  The 
knowledge  and  adaptation  pathways  tested  in  these  leading  regions  will  then  be  transferred  to 
eight twinned regions through mutual-learning activities and digital twins. 

Mission solutions 

Mission  solutions  support  regions  and  local  authorities  in  their  adaptation  work.  Regional  and 
local  authorities  need  to  quickly  identify,  plan  and  implement  relevant  adaptation  measures  to 
combat the impact of climate change. Some measures may need to be implemented over many 
years due to their scope and scale and the time they may take to deliver benefits (as illustrated by 
the length of time it takes for a tree to grow and cast shade). The Adaptation Stories showcase 
the  successful  implementation  of  climate  adaptation  solutions  in  regions  of  Europe  that  other 
regions  may  wish  to  replicate.  They  demonstrate  the  power  of  cooperation  and  innovative 
approaches to addressing climate challenges and creating a more resilient and sustainable future 
for  Europe.  The  European  Commission  Risk  Data  Hub,  supports  the  implementation  of  the 
Mission  on  Adaptation,  through  serving  as  a  centralized  platform  for  collecting,  harmonizing, 
and disseminating regional climate related hazard, loss and risk data. 

80 https://resist-project.eu/ 

80 

 
 
 
10.3 ADAPTATION STORIES 

in  planning, 

The  Adaptation Stories 81 showcase real-life 
examples  of  regional  or  local  actions  and 
funding, 
good  practices 
implementing,  and  monitoring  climate 
adaptation  solutions.  They  are  intended  to 
inspire others to act on climate adaptation - 
an 
green 
infrastructure  and  nature-based  solutions 
have  been  deployed  widely  to  deal  with 
heat  waves  in  the  context  of  urbanisation 
and climate change. 

example:  Zagreb  where 

10.4 THE EU MISSION ADAPTATION COMMUNITY 

The Mission’s Community of Practice 82 facilitates the exchange of knowledge and experiences 
and  strengthens  coordination  and  collaboration  between  diverse  adaptation  practitioners.  Its 
membership  comprises  regional  and  local  authorities  that  are  Charter  signatories;  Mission 
projects; regional and local  authorities participating in the  implementation of Mission projects; 
the Commission and other EU institutions; national authorities; and Friends of the Mission 83. 

81 Adaptation stories (europa.eu) 
82 https://futurium.ec.europa.eu/en/eu-mission-adaptation-community 
83 Other useful links: https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/mission 
https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/mission/news/news/eu-mission-on-adaptation-to-climate-change-releases-new-report-
showcasing-progress-and-priorities 

81 

 
 
 
 
 
11  COMMISSION’S ASSESSMENT OF LONG-TERM 

STRATEGIES  

Stable long-term strategies are a key element in the preparation of the economic transformation 
needed  to  achieve  climate  neutrality  by  2050.  Long-term  strategies  show  the  opportunities  for 
transforming  our  economy,  allow  the  national  discussions  to  mature,  build  trust  within  our 
society and send clear signals  to  guide investors while raising awareness  and ownership of the 
transformation needed. 

The Governance Regulation 84 sets out a process for the Member States to prepare, by 1 January 
2020, their first long-term strategies with a perspective of at least 30 years, and new strategies by 
1  January  2029  and  every  10  years  thereafter.  Where  necessary,  Member  States  should  update 
those strategies every five years. 

Since  2021,  in  line  with  Article  15(9)  of  the  Governance  Regulation,  the  Commission  has 
regularly  assessed  whether  the  national  long-term  strategies  are  adequate  for  the  collective 
achievement of the objectives and targets of the Energy Union and provide information on any 
remaining collective gap. The main conclusions and the relevant analysis have been included in 
the  staff  working  document  accompanying  the  annual  Climate  Action  Progress  Reports.  In  its 
last assessment (2023 Climate Action Progress Report) 85 the Commission concluded that: 

‘Whereas  most  of  the  national  strategies  received  to  date  reflect  the  ambition  to  be 
climate neutral by 2050, they do not yet allow to conclude that the long-term strategies 
are  adequate  for  the  collective  achievement  of  the  objectives  and  targets  of  the  Energy 
Union. A rough estimate based on the submitted national long-term strategies […] points 
to  a  reduction  of  GHG  emissions  of  around  85%  by  2050  for  the  EU  as  a  whole.  […] 
Providing  more  detailed  information  on  any  remaining  collective  gap  would  have 
required  a  more  complete  and  detailed  set  of  strategies.  Member  States  are  therefore 
encouraged to consider updating and, where needed, to increase both the ambition and 
the quality of their national long-term strategies.’ 

The  Commission  has  also  enforced  the  EU  law  against  failure  to  submit  national  long-term 
strategies. In September 2022, in view of the substantial delay of Bulgaria, Ireland, Poland and 
Romania  in  notifying  their  national  long-term  strategies  under  the  Governance  Regulation,  the 
Commission opened formal infringement proceedings and sent letters of formal notice to these 
countries  86.  The  proceedings  have  since  been  closed  for  Bulgaria,  Ireland  and  Romania  87, 
following  the  submission  of  their  strategies,  but  the  infringement  proceeding  against  Poland  is 
ongoing. The Commission will consider the next steps according to further developments. Based 

84 Article 15 of Regulation (EU) 2018/1999. 
85 https://climate.ec.europa.eu/document/download/60a04592-cf1f-4e31-865b-2b5b51b9d09f_en 
86 On  22  September  2022,  the  Commission  sent  letters  of  formal  notice  to  Bulgaria  (INFR(2022)2086),  Ireland 
(INFR(2022)2088), Poland (INFR(2022)2089) and Romania (INFR(2022)2090) under Regulation (EU) 2018/1999. 
87 The infringement proceedings for Ireland and Romania were closed in Decembre 2023 and in February 2024, respectively. 

82 

 
 
on its reply  to the Commission’s letter,  Poland appears to  be  intending  to  submit its  long-term 
strategy by the end of 2024. 

Since October 2022, two additional Member States, Ireland and Romania, have submitted their 
long-term strategy to the Commission 88. Both strategies define a clear goal of achieving climate 
neutrality  by  2050.  Romania’s  long-term  strategy  presents  alternative  scenarios,  including  a 
pathway to  approach climate neutrality  by 2050,  although the removal of the remaining  1% (3 
MtCO2-eq)  of  GHG  emissions  by  2050  is  subject  to  further  analysis.  In  July  2024,  Ireland 
submitted  an  updated  version  of  its  national  long-term  strategy.  This  presents  more  detailed 
future  emissions  pathways,  including  for  the  agriculture  and  LULUCF  sectors,  but  also  allows 
flexibility to account for the fact that optimal pathways will evolve over time.  

Overall, by October 2024, all the Member States, except Poland, had submitted their long-term 
strategies  required  by  the  Governance  Regulation.  Of  these,  16  Member  States  89  clearly 
expressed  their  aim  to  achieve  climate  neutrality  or  carbon  neutrality 90 by  2050  or  before 91. 
Others aim to be largely climate neutral 92 or to achieve reductions of 80-95% by 2050. However, 
only  10  Member  States  have  reported  legally  binding  goals  or  targets  93.  Two  third  of  the 
strategies  have  been  supported  by  quantitative  projections  based  on  different  modelling 
scenarios.  The  associated  emissions  reductions  may  be  consistent  with  the  delivery  of  the 
specified goals, but this is not always clearly stated. Likewise, where a target has been set, it is 
not always clear if it is legally binding. 

The  national  long-term  strategies  also  provide  useful  information  at  sectoral  level  that  allows 
strengths  and  remaining  challenges  to  be  identified  and  recognised.  However,  coverage  varies 
significantly  between  Member  States  or  there  is  a  lack  of  details  on  the  precise  scope, 
particularly on the expected role of land use and removals (see Table 11.1). In this respect, it is 
worth mentioning that the current LULUCF Regulation provides that Member States may use the 
managed  forest  land  flexibility  only  if  their  long-term  strategy  includes  ongoing  or  planned 
specific measures to ensure the conservation or enhancement of forest sinks and reservoirs 94. 

88 A summary of the submitted strategies can be found in the links below, for Ireland and Romania, respectively: 
https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/lts/lts_ie_summary_en.pdf https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/lts/lts_ro_summary_en.pdf. 
89 Denmark,  Ireland,  Spain,  France,  Italy,  Latvia,  Lithuania,  Luxembourg,  Hungary,  Austria,  Portugal,  Romania,  Slovenia, 
Slovakia, Sweden and Finland. 
90 Neutrality means by definition that residual emissions are compensated by removals, but not all Member States provided the 
respective share of emission reductions and removals and the level of ambition for actual reductions varies. 
91 Finland by 2035 and Sweden by 2045. 
92 Germany was aiming to be largely climate-neutral in 2050, but it should be noted that the long-term strategy that it submitted 
to  the  Commission  in  January  2020  was  prepared  in  2016.  According  to  its  Climate  Change  Act  (as  amended  in  July  2021), 
Germany is now aiming to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. 
93 Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Spain, France, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands and Sweden NL. In addition to the 
information provided in its national long-term strategy, Germany has also enshrined climate targets in legislation. 
94 Article 13.2.(a) and 8.1 of the Regulation (EU) 2018/841. 

83 

 
 
 
Table 11.1: Summary of the main features of the national long-term strategies submitted by the EU Member States 

The  inclusion  of  the  recommended  contents 95 also  varies  between  Member  States.  There  are 
gaps  in  needs  for  research,  development  and  innovation;  estimated  long-term  investment;  CO2 
intensity of GDP; and, to a lesser extent, the expected contributions of renewable energy, energy 
efficiency and agriculture-specific emission reductions (see Table 11.2 for more details) 96. 

A  rough  estimate  based  on  the  submitted  national  long-term  strategies  and  (where  data  are 
missing)  on  other  available  information 97,  points  to  a  reduction  in  GHG  emissions  (excluding 
LULUCF) of around 86% by 2050 for the EU as a whole. This means that roughly 630 MtCO2eq 
still needs to be cut or absorbed in order to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 98. This is a slight 
improvement  compared  with  last  year’s  assessment  and  is  due  to  the  latest  submissions  of 
Ireland and Romania. However, the overall assessment has not changed. The national long-term 
strategies  received  to  date  do  not  yet  make  it  possible  to  conclude  that  they  are  sufficiently 
ambitious to ensure the collective achievement of the objectives and targets of the Energy Union.  

The assessment presented above more than justifies the need for Member States to update their 
strategies  every  5  years,  as  indicated  by  Article 15(1)  of  the  Governance  Regulation.  The 
Commission  therefore  calls  on  the  Member  States  to  update  and,  where  appropriate,  increase 
both the ambition and the quality of their national long-term strategies in the course of 2025. 

95 See Annex IV to Regulation (EU) 2018/1999. 
96 For a more detailed assessment of the national long-term strategies submitted by Member States, please refer to DG CLIMA’s 
dedicated  website: 
https://ec.europa.eu/info/energy-climate-change-environment/implementation-eu-countries/energy-and-
climate-governance-and-reporting/national-long-term-strategies_en. 
97 Where possible, these estimates use information from the national long-term strategies  in a specific order. First, the national 
targets  or  (when  these  are  unavailable  or  unclear)  scenario  results  (i.e. in  the  case  of  a  range  of  values,  the  most  ambitious 
scenario is considered). In the case of national binding targets adopted after the submission of the strategy, updated values have 
been  used  (e.g. in  the  case  of  Germany).  Where  data  could  not  be  retrieved  from  their  long-term  strategies,  use  was  made  of 
information  that  the  Member  States  submitted  to  the  Commission  under  another  reporting  exercise  (i.e. the  integrated  NECPs 
and/or 2023 GHG projections). Only when national information was not available were data from the 2020 Reference Scenario 
EU Reference Scenario 2020 (europa.eu) used as a last resort. Overall, three quarters of the 2020 EU GHG emissions are covered 
by  national  sourced  information.  Unfortunately,  the  aggregated  data  and  analyses  are  less  meaningful  for  CO2  removal  and 
energy data, for which there are significant data gaps in the national long-term strategies. 
98 This does not include the international maritime and international aviation under the EU law. 

84 

Long-term strategies' main featuresATBEBGHRCZDKEEFIFRDEGRHUIEITCYLVLTLUMTNLPTROSKSIESSEClimate neutrality by 2050 or earlierxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxModelling projections and scenariosxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEmission projections by sectorsxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEmission removals in LULUCFxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEstimated share of renewablexxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEstimated energy consumptionxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEstimated investment needsxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSocio-economic impacts of transitionxxxxxxxxxxxxxAdaptation Policies and MeasuresxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxLegally binding long-term goalxxxxxxxxxxxxNotes: in the case of DK and SK, emission projections by sector, the estimated share of renewable and energy consumption, end in 2040 
 
 
 
Table 11.2: Overview of the national long-term strategies submitted by the EU Member States  

Country 
(date of 
submission) 

Overall LTS 
goal by 2050 

Projected GHG 
emission 
reductions by 
2050 

(% change 
compared with 
1990) 

s
n
o
i
s
s
i

m
e

s
e
s
a
g
l
l
a

F
C
U
L
U
L
g
n
i
d
u
l
c
n
i

e
m

i
t
i
r
a
m

l
a
n
o
i
t
a
n
r
e
t
n
I

n
o
i
t
a
i
v
a
d
n
a

.
l
c
n
i

Share of 
renewable 
energy in 
gross final 
energy 
consumption 
by 2050 

Projected 
final energy 
consumption 
by 2050 

(% change 
compared with 
2005) 

Highlights from investment needs, 
enabling policies and socio-
economic impact 

Key reporting gaps 

Austria 
(27/12/2019) 

Belgium 
(02/03/2020) 

Bulgaria 
(27/10/2022) 

Croatia 
(24/06/2021) 

Cyprus 
(14/09/2022) 

Czechia 
(20/12/2019) 

Denmark 
(20/12/2019) 

Estonia 
(30/12/2019) 

Finland 
(22/04/2020) 

Climate neutrality 

(-74%, -84%) 

yes 

no 

yes 

(76%, 93%) 

(-52%, -38%) 

Different regional 
goals  

(-85%, -87%) 
(excluding ETS sector) 

? 

no 

no 

n.a. 

n.a. 

Unspecified 

(-78%, -84%) 

yes 

no 

no 

(61%, 70%) 

(79, 87 TWh) 

positive impact on GDP and jobs 
natural and technical sinks needed to 
reach carbon neutrality 

CO2 intensity of GDP of GDP 
investment needs 
socio-economic impact 

investment needs in buildings 
climate risks for agricultural system 
address energy poverty 

information at national level 
GHG and CO2 intensity of GDP 
emission reductions for ETS and 
LULUCF 

positive impact on jobs and wellbeing 
investment need < 15bn up to 2050 
technical sinks to reach carbon neutrality 

GHG and CO2 intensity of GDP 
emission reductions by sub-sector 
socio-economic impact 

Unspecified 

(-57%, -73%) 

yes 

no 

? 

(53.2%, 
65.6%) 

(-25%, -37%) 

overall impact on GDP uncertain 
around 40 000 new green jobs 
additional investment above 1.5% of GDP 

reductions and removals in LULUCF 
socio-economic impact 
emission reductions industrial sectors 

Unspecified 

(-28%, -100%) 

yes 

yes 

? 

(51%, 95%) 

(1996, 1875 
Ktoe) 

cost of the transition modest to low 
gradual closure of thermal power plants 
natural and tech. sinks to reach neutrality 

GHG and CO2 intensity of GDP 
emission reduction in buildings 
socio-economic impact 

quantitative GHG 
emission 
reduction target 

-80% 

yes 

no 

no 

n.a. 

n.a. 

Climate neutrality 

n.a. 

yes 

yes 

no 

n.a. 

n.a. 

quantitative GHG 
emission 
reduction target 

Carbon neutrality 
by 2035 

-80% 

yes 

no 

no 

n.a. 

n.a. 

(-87.5%, -90%) 

yes 

no 

? 

(64%, 80%) 

(-16%, -5%) 

investment peak with expansion of CCS 
strengthen energy taxation 
Increase share of nuclear in energy mix  

GHG and CO2 intensity of GDP 
emission reductions by sector 
socio-economic impact 

targets enshrined in law 
doubling organic farming 
increase spending in green research 

public consultation 
emission reductions power & buildings 
socio-economic impact 

targets enshrined in law 
large investment needed in renewable 
minor impact on GDP and jobs 

CO2 intensity of GDP 
emission reductions in buildings 
RES, FEC/PEC targets 

slightly positive impact on GDP and jobs 
employment sensitive to arable lands  
annual investment   ̴3% of GDP 

CO2 intensity of GDP 
emission reductions in buildings 
strategies for related R&D&I 

85 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Country 
(date of 
submission) 

Overall LTS 
goal by 2050 

Projected GHG 
emission 
reductions by 
2050 

(% change 
compared with 
1990) 

s
n
o
i
s
s
i

m
e

s
e
s
a
g
l
l
a

F
C
U
L
U
L
g
n
i
d
u
l
c
n
i

e
m

i
t
i
r
a
m

l
a
n
o
i
t
a
n
r
e
t
n
I

n
o
i
t
a
i
v
a
d
n
a

.
l
c
n
i

Share of 
renewable 
energy in 
gross final 
energy 
consumption 
by 2050 

Projected 
final energy 
consumption 
by 2050 

(% change 
compared with 
2005) 

Highlights from investment needs, 
enabling policies and socio-
economic impact 

Key reporting gaps 

France 
(12/05/2020) 

Germany 
(02/01/2020) 

Greece 
(08/01/2020) 

Hungary 
(21/09/2021) 

Ireland 
(30/07/2024) 

Italy 
(11/02/2021) 

Latvia 
(27/12/2019) 

Lithuania 
(23/07/2021) 

Carbon neutrality 

-83% 

yes 

no 

no 

n.a. 

n.a. 

Largely climate 
neutral 

(-80%, -95%) 

yes 

no 

no 

n.a. 

n.a. 

Unspecified 

(-83%, -95%) 

? 

? 

? 

(82%, 114%) 

n.a. 

targets enshrined in law 
positive impact on GDP 
annual investment   ̴3.5% of GDP 

GHG and CO2 intensity of GDP 
reductions and removals in LULUCF 
share of renewable energy in 2050 

document outdated compared with recent 
review of the country's target aimed at 
reaching climate neutrality by 2045 

GHG and CO2 intensity of GDP 
emission reductions by sector 
investment & socio-economic impact 

increase use of heat pumps (buildings) 
and biofuel (transport) 
investment needs EUR 0.1 to EUR 1.1 bn 
per year 

GHG and CO2 intensity of GDP 
emission reductions agriculture & waste 
socio-economic impact 

Climate neutrality 

-100% 

yes 

yes 

no 

close to 90% 

(-30%, -37%) 
(to 2017) 

positive impact on GDP and jobs 
annual investment   ̴4.8% of GDP 
avoided damage and benefits > costs 

reductions and removals in LULUCF 
emission reductions in buildings 

Climate neutrality 

n.a. 

yes 

no 

yes 

90% 
(most ambitious 
scenario) 

n.a. 

targets enshrined in law 
investment needs up to EUR 235 bn over 
2031-2050 
strong focus on adaptation strategies  

socio-economic impact 
FEC/PEC targets 

Climate neutrality 

(-84%, -87%) 

yes 

no 

no 

(85%, 90%) 

-49% 

slightly negative impact on GDP 
boost sustainable finance 
focus on adaptation strategies 

emission reductions in waste 
Investment needs 
socio-economic impact 

Climate neutrality 

-85% 
(by 2040) 

? 

yes 

? 

n.a. 

-37% 
(primary energy 
consumption) 

positive impact on GDP 
annual investment   ̴1.4% of GDP 
creation of new (green) jobs 

CO2 intensity of GDP 
emission reductions in buildings 
adaptation policies and measures 

Climate neutrality 

-100% 
(20% reduction from 
LULUCF & CCS) 

yes 

yes 

yes 

90% 

final & primary 
energy intensity 
2.4 times lower 
than 2017 

positive impact on GDP and jobs 
4% of GDP invested in R&D&I by 2040 
focus on adaptation strategies 

public consultation 
GHG and CO2 intensity of GDP 
emission reductions by sector 

Luxembourg 
(04/11/2021) 

Climate neutrality 

-100% 
(including LULUCF) 

yes 

yes 

no 

100% 

n.a. 

Malta 
(21/10/2021) 

Unspecified 

-82% 

yes 

no 

no 

n.a. 

n.a. 

Support sustainable finance 
ensure a just transition for citizens and 
enterprises 

emission cuts in 2050 for all sectors 
reductions and removals in LULUCF 
estimated investment needs 

increased job opportunities  
improved air quality and health 
investment in renewables > EUR 2bn to 
2050 

CO2 intensity of GDP 
LULUCF, RES, FEC/PEC targets 

86 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Country 
(date of 
submission) 

Overall LTS 
goal by 2050 

Netherlands 
(18/12/2019) 

Quantitative 
GHG emission 
reduction target 

Projected GHG 
emission 
reductions by 
2050 

(% change 
compared with 
1990) 

s
n
o
i
s
s
i

m
e

s
e
s
a
g
l
l
a

F
C
U
L
U
L
g
n
i
d
u
l
c
n
i

e
m

i
t
i
r
a
m

l
a
n
o
i
t
a
n
r
e
t
n
I

n
o
i
t
a
i
v
a
d
n
a

.
l
c
n
i

Share of 
renewable 
energy in 
gross final 
energy 
consumption 
by 2050 

Projected 
final energy 
consumption 
by 2050 

(% change 
compared with 
2005) 

-95% 

yes 

yes 

no 

n.a. 

n.a. 

Carbon neutrality 

(-85%, -90%) 

? 

no 

? 

(86%, 88%) 

(-36%, -35%) 

Carbon neutrality 

-99% 
(including LULUCF) 

yes 

yes 

no 

86.1% 

-30% 

Climate neutrality 

-80% 

? 

no 

? 

n.a. 

n.a. 

Climate neutrality 

(-80%, -90%) 

? 

no 

no 

at least 60% 

at least -33% 

Climate neutrality 

-90% 

yes 

no 

yes 

97% 

-44% 

Portugal 
(15/01/2020) 

Romania 
(14/12/2023) 

Slovakia 
(11/03/2020) 

Slovenia 
(19/07/2021) 

Spain 
(11/12/2020) 

Sweden 
(19/12/2019) 

Highlights from investment needs, 
enabling policies and socio-
economic impact 

Key reporting gaps 

net-zero requires large scale CO2 capture 
by 2030, limited impact on GDP and jobs 
increase income disparities 

reductions and removals in LULUCF 
emission reductions in all sectors by 2050 
investment needs 

positive impact on GDP and jobs 
annual investment   ̴1.2% of GDP 
better air quality 

GHG and CO2 intensity of GDP 
strategies related to R&D&I 
adaptation policies and measures 

positive impact on GDP 
Investment needs 1.5 times larger REF 
100K new green jobs by 2050 

Removal of the remaining 1% of GHG 
emissions in 2050 still subject to analysis 

positive impact on GDP 
negative impact on jobs & wages 
annual investment   ̴4.2% of GDP 

GHG and CO2 intensity of GDP 
emission reductions in buildings 
LULUCF, RES, FEC/PEC targets 

positive impact on GDP and jobs 
additional investment from EUR 66 to 
EUR 72 bn 
focus on a climate resilient society  

GHG and CO2 intensity of GDP 
emission reductions industrial sectors 

positive impact on GDP and jobs 
negative impact on jobs & wages 
annual investment   ̴1% of GDP 

CO2 intensity of GDP 
emission reductions agriculture & waste 
emission reductions for industrial sectors  

Climate neutrality 
by 2045 and negative 
emissions thereafter 

-85% 
(by 2045) 

yes 

no 

no 

n.a. 

final energy 
intensity 50% 
lower than 2005 

limited impact on GDP and jobs 
better air quality 
focus on adaptation strategies 

GHG and CO2 intensity of GDP 
share of renewable energy 
investment & socio-economic impact 

Notes: (1) An ‘unspecified’ goal refers to cases where the goal was not expressed in clear terms (e.g. ‘to approach’, ‘to move towards’, etc.). (2) Germany’s long-term strategy, as submitted to the Commission in January 
2020, reflects the goal of the Climate Action Plan 2050 adopted in November 2016. According to the Climate Change Act, as amended in July 2021, Germany now aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. (3) In April 
2021, Denmark submitted an update of its long-term strategy under Article 18(1)(a) and Annex VI(b) of the Governance Regulation. This update is intended to reflect the Danish Climate Act, which was adopted in June 2020; 
and which sets a near-term target of reducing Denmark’s total GHG emissions by 70% by 2030 compared with the 1990 level and sets a long-term target of achieving climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest. (4) Since July 
2023, when the Climate Act entered into force, the Netherlands has had a legally binding target of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. (5) Projected GHG emission reductions are all expressed as a percentage change 
compared with 1990 levels (except for Belgium, Portugal and Slovenia (where reduction rates refer to the 2005 GHG emission levels); Malta (the 2020 level); and France (the 2015 level)) as a target or as the extreme values 
of the projected range. In Denmark’s long-term strategy, projections refer to a scenario with existing measures that are not in line with the goal and have therefore not been reported in the table. (6) ‘?’ means that the long-
term strategy does not provide sufficient or clear information on the exact scope of projected GHG emission reductions. In the case of Spain, only international maritime emissions were included in the projections. (7) Where 
feasible, final energy consumption has been expressed as a percentage change to the 2005 consumption level. (8) Annual investment needs are generally considered as additional to a ‘business as usual’ (BAU) or ‘with 
existing measures’ (WEM) scenario for 2020-2050. (9) Key reporting gaps are meant to provide only a general view of the long-term strategy’s completeness and do not distinguish between mandatory and non-mandatory 
elements. 

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12  EXAMPLES OF FUNDING OF CLIMATE RELATED 

PROJECTS 

12.1 EXAMPLE OF PROJECT FUNDED BY THE INNOVATION FUND 

The  Innovation  Fund  (IF)  is  one  of  the  world’s  largest  funding  programmes  for  the 
deployment of net-zero and innovative technologies in EEA countries. Financed by revenues 
from the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the IF is one of the EU’s funds for climate 
policy, focusing on energy, industry and mobility and fostering competitiveness. 

The  IF  aims  to  create  financial  incentives  for  companies  and  public  authorities  to  invest  in 
cutting-edge,  low-carbon  technologies  and  support  the  EU’s  transition  to  climate  neutrality. 
Thanks to the EU ETS and assuming a carbon price of EUR 75/tCO2, it is estimated that the 
IF  will  have  around  EUR  40  billion  available  between  2020  and  2030.  The  IF  has  already 
awarded around EUR 6.5 billion to more than 115  innovative projects through its previous 
calls for proposals. 

1.  H2GS: H2 Green Steel 99 

The IF has granted EUR 250 million to a steel plant in Boden in northern Sweden to build a 
greenfield, integrated, industrial-scale, renewable hydrogen, green iron and green steel plant. 
The H2 Green Steel  (H2GS) project’s innovation  involves electrifying the entire production 
process,  increasing  energy  efficiency  and  replacing  coal  with  renewable  hydrogen.  It  will 
ultimately reduce CO2 emissions by up to 95%. 

The plant will use fossil-free electricity to produce the renewable hydrogen needed to bring 
5 million tonnes (Mt) of high-quality green steel to the market by 2030. The process involves 
converting iron ore into direct-reduced iron (DRI) using hydrogen, which reacts with the ore’s 
oxygen and forms steam as a byproduct. Hot DRI and steel scrap is then melted in an electric 
arc  furnace,  sending  waste  heat  to  the  district  heating  channels  of  Luleå-Boden,  and 
processing slag into products to be used in other industries. The liquid steel is solidified into 
solid  products  through  an  integrated  continuous  casting  and  rolling  process.  This  method 
reduces energy consumption by 70% and eliminates the use of natural gas typically found in 
traditional processes. 

The project is expected to be operational by December 2026 and should avoid emissions of 
over  33.4 MtCO2-eq  over  a  10-year  operational  period.  It  will  create  2 000  direct  jobs, 
contribute  to  the  creation  of  10 000  further  indirect  jobs  and  help  to  achieve  the  EU’s 
ambition (as set out in the EU industrial strategy) of decarbonising heavy industry. 

2.  IRIS:  Innovative  low  carbon  hydrogen  and  methanol  production  by  large  scale 

carbon capture 100 

The  IF  has  granted  EUR 126.79 million  to  a  first-of-a-kind  carbon  capture  storage  and 
utilisation (CCUS) project in Corinthia in Greece. IRIS will decarbonise the Agioi Theodoroi 
Refinery by applying carbon capture technology  to its  steam  methane  reformer (SMR). The 
post-combustion  capture  technology  that  has  been  selected  for  IRIS  will  allow  both 

99 https://ec.europa.eu/assets/cinea/project_fiches/innovation_fund/101133206.pdf 
100 https://ec.europa.eu/assets/cinea/project_fiches/innovation_fund/101133015.pdf 

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unperturbed  ultra-low-carbon  hydrogen  production  and  continuous  high-pressure  steam 
generation. 

The  bulk  of  the  captured  carbon  will  be  sequestered  in  an  offshore  storage  facility  in  the 
northern Aegean, but a small amount will be used to produce 10 000 tonnes of e-methanol per 
year for use as an energy carrier in both mobility and industrial applications. Besides its use 
within  the  refinery,  the  hydrogen  that  is  produced  will  be  used  as  fuel  in  transport 
applications. E-methanol will be used for maritime applications as a low-carbon substitute for 
marine  fuels.  The  project  will  also  promote  the  scalability  of  the  CCUS  chain  to  two  other 
refinery units, potentially decreasing the total refinery carbon footprint by a further 25%. 

Entry into operation is planned for mid-2028. The project should avoid 8.58 MtCO2eq over a 
10-year  operational  period,  creating  up  to  2 000  jobs  during  construction  and  21  permanent 
jobs  during  the  project’s  operating  lifetime.  At  the  EU  level,  it  will  particularly  help  to 
achieve  both  the  Net-Zero  Industry  Act  target  of  50  million  tonnes  a  year  of  CO2  storage 
capacity by 2030 and the REPowerEU target of reducing fossil fuel consumption in industry 
and transport. 

3.  SHEEFT: Solar Heliup Energy for flat rooftops 101 

The IF has granted EUR 3.2 million to a solar photovoltaic (PV) panel project in Le Cheylas 
in France. Thanks to the IF’s support, SHEEFT will deploy industrial-sized manufacturing of 
ultra  lightweight  solar  PV  panels  designed  for  existing  large  building  rooftops  with  low 
bearing capacities. 

SHEEFT’s innovative nature lies in its installation concept, which involves directly bonding 
the  panel  to  a  waterproofing  membrane,  thus  reducing  weight  by  60%  compared  with 
conventional solutions. This technology, which is well adapted to flat rooftops and is weather 
resistant, is based on a patented design that uses ultra-thin glass. 

In  line  with  the  REPowerEU  plan,  the  project’s  production  capacity  is  set  at  100  megawatt 
peaks  (MWp)  per  year  and  aims  to  avoid  363 660  tonnes  of  CO2  equivalent  over  a  10-year 
period. The project will create 100 direct jobs and 150 indirect jobs. It is scheduled to begin 
operating in late 2024. 

4.  T-HYNET: Tarragona Network Hydrogen 102 

The IF is  backing  the development  of a cutting-edge 150-megawatt (MW) capacity alkaline 
electrolyser project  in  Spain’s Tarragona industrial area.  Thanks  to  the  IF’s EUR 62 million 
grant, T-HYNET will become  Spain’s largest  electrolyser initiative, continuously  producing 
2.7 tonnes of renewable hydrogen per hour. 

The electrolyser’s state-of-the-art design features advanced alkaline technology, increased use 
of  digital  tools,  and  increased  water-use  efficiency  by  minimising  water  discharge  and 
maximising  water  recovery.  The  renewable  hydrogen  that  will  be  produced  will  be 
transported by a hydrogen pipeline to industrial off-takers and injected into the nearby natural 
gas  network.  The  project’s  strategic  location  in  Catalonia’s  Hydrogen  Valley  and  the  Ebro 
Hydrogen  Corridor  will  facilitate  hydrogen  transmission  to  off-takers  across  the  EU.T-
HYNET  is  expected  to  create  900  direct  and  1 100  indirect  jobs,  and  to  avoid  emitting 
1.4 million  tonnes  of  CO2  over  a  10-year  operational  period.  Aligning  with  the  European 
hydrogen strategy and RePowerEU initiatives, construction is set to be completed by the end 
of 2026. 

101 https://ec.europa.eu/assets/cinea/project_fiches/innovation_fund/101156515.pdf 
102 https://ec.europa.eu/assets/cinea/project_fiches/innovation_fund/101133010.pdf 

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12.2  EXAMPLE OF PROJECT FUNDED BY THE MODERNISATION FUND 

The  Modernisation  Fund 103  supports  the  modernisation  of  the  energy  systems  and  the 
improvement of energy efficiency in 13 lower-income EU Member States (Bulgaria, Croatia, 
Czechia,  Estonia,  Greece,  Hungary,  Latvia,  Lithuania,  Poland,  Portugal,  Romania,  Slovenia 
and  Slovakia).  Established  in  2018  for  the  2021-2030  period,  the  fund  aims  to  help  the 
beneficiary Member States achieve their climate and energy targets and the objectives of the 
European Green Deal. 

Financed by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the fund primarily focuses on six 
priority  areas:  renewable  energy  generation  and  use,  renewable  heating  and  cooling,  energy 
efficiency across sectors, energy storage and network modernisation, low-income household 
support, and just transition in carbon-dependent regions. A maximum of 20% can be allocated 
toward non-priority investments  that reduce greenhouse gas  emissions but  do not  fall in  the 
priority areas. 

The Modernisation Fund operates under the responsibility of the beneficiary Member States, 
who  work  in  close  cooperation  with  the  European  Investment  Bank  (EIB)  and  the 
Commission.  Together,  the  Commission,  the  EIB  and  16  EU  Member  States  compose  the 
Investment Committee for the Modernisation Fund (Investment Committee) that approves the 
investments, while the EIB examines Member State proposals. 

1.  Support the production of electricity from renewable energy sources in Croatia 

The  Modernisation  Fund  has  agreed  to  disburse  EUR  80  million  in  support  of  a  renewable 
energy sources (RES) production scheme in Croatia. 

The investment aims to bolster the construction and installation of RES production facilities 
of  photovoltaic  (PV)  panels,  biomass  and  biogas.  Furthermore,  this  scheme  will  benefit 
projects and enterprises in manufacturing industries and in activities related to steam and air 
conditioning supply, including ETS installations. 

The  overall  objective  of  this  scheme  is  to  address  market  failures  related  to  negative 
externalities  in  the  energy  sector  and  limited  grid  transmission  capabilities.  The  desired 
outcome is to reduce energy procurement costs for beneficiaries and to encourage investment 
in RES installations at production plants and associated facilities throughout Croatia. 

The scheme foresees installing an energy capacity of 80 megawatts (MW) and energy storage 
capacity  of  20  MW  and  should  generate  energy  consumption  savings  of  140 000  Megawatt 
hours (MWh) and avoid around 60 000 tonnes of CO2 emissions during a typical operational 
year. On a national scale, the scheme contributes to the goals set in the National Energy and 
Climate  Plan.  The  construction  of  facilities  for  dispersed  energy  production  at  points  of 
consumption will also have long-term positive impacts on the national electricity grid, such as 
reduction of the peak load or reduction of losses in the grid. 

On a European scale, this scheme contributes to achieving the goals set forth by the European 
Green  Deal  and  in  the  RePowerEU  plan,  by  reducing  greenhouse  gas  emissions  and 
increasing  the  share  of  renewable  energy.  EUR  40  million  have  already  been  disbursed  to 
Croatia for projects under this scheme. 

2.  Contract  for  Difference  Support  Scheme  for  the  production  of  electricity  from 

renewable sources onshore wind and solar photovoltaic energy in Romania. 

103 https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/eu-funding-climate-action/modernisation-fund_en 

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In  2024,  the  Modernisation  Fund  made  a  first  tranche  of  EUR  5  million  to  Romania  to 
implement  a  contract  for  difference  support  scheme.  This  scheme  seeks  to  develop  5 
gigawatts (GW) of onshore wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) capacities through two auctions 
between 2023 and 2025, aiming to support 50-250 beneficiaries of all sizes. 

Led by the Romanian Ministry of Energy, this scheme works as a variable premium payment 
for  each  megawatt  hour  (MWh)  of  electricity  generated  and  delivered  to  the  grid.  The 
payment  is  calculated  based  on  the  difference  between  a  competitively  fixed  price  (strike 
price) and the market price (reference price). The total support from the Modernisation Fund 
for the scheme will be determined following the two auction rounds, based on the actual strike 
prices. 

The objectives for this scheme are well-aligned with the RePowerEU plan and the Green Deal 
Industrial  plan  as  the  scheme  is  contributing  to  increasing  the  share  of  renewable  energy 
sources in the energy mix and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The scheme also supports 
the  national  decarbonisation  objectives  of  the  2021-2030  national  energy  and  climate  plan, 
with a focus on 2023-2025, while maintaining energy security and generation diversification. 
It will also aid the local economy with increasing jobs and skill diversification. 

12.3  LAND AND NATURE 

LIFE PeatCarbon 

LIFE  PeatCarbon  will  help  restore  peatlands  ecosystems  in  Latvia  and  Finland  by 
demonstrating approaches to the climate-smart management of degraded peatlands and testing 
innovative  methods  for  GHG  monitoring.  The  project  is  expected  to  restore  5 076  and  338 
hectares of peatland in Latvia and Finland respectively. This will save 37 117 tCO2eq per year 
in Latvia and 3 500 tCO2eq per year in Finland. 

SWIFTT project: Climate change risks in Forestry  

The  SWIFTT  project,  financed  by  Horizon  Europe,  will  provide  a  scientifically  sound  and 
technically  feasible  way  to  help  monitor  and  manage  forest  risks:  windthrow,  insect 
outbreaks, and forest  fires. SWIFTT will enable forest  managers to  adapt  to  climate change 
with  affordable,  simple  and  effective  remote  sensing  tools  backed  up  by  powerful  machine 
learning models. The solution will offer a monthly health monitoring service including early 
warnings,  using  Copernicus  satellite  imagery  to  detect  and  map  the  various  risks  to  which 
forests  and  their  managers  are  exposed.  Early  threat  detection  aids  timely  intervention. 
SWIFTT will be tested in real conditions by several end-users from the forest industry, which 
include  Fürstliches  Forstamt,  Groupe  Coopération  Forestière  and  the  Rigas  Mezia.  Once 
completed, SWIFTT’s maps detailing areas of windthrow damage, insect outbreaks, and fire 
risk  will  enable  forest  managers  to  act  proactively  and  allocate  resources  efficiently  for  a 
timely intervention. With SWIFTT’s sustainable, effective, and low-cost  forest  management 
tools, Europe will be better positioned to combat climate change and preserve its biodiversity 
through healthier forests. The solution will help to monitor and protect up to 40 ml of ha of 
global forests by 2030, saving foresters over EUR 468 ml in monitoring costs.  

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12.4  SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY 

Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) 

In  July 2024,  the  Commission  announced  grants  of  over  EUR 7 billion  to  improve 
sustainable, safe and smart transport infrastructure throughout the EU. This funding, which is 
the  largest  under  the  current  Connecting  Europe  Facility  (CEF)  transport  programme,  will 
support  134  projects  aimed  at  expanding  and  modernising  the  Trans-European  Transport 
Network  (TEN-T).  80%  of  the  total  investment  will  go  to  rail  projects,  to  strengthen  cross-
border  connections  along  the  EU’s  TEN-T  core  network.  These  include Rail  Baltica 104,  the 
Lyon-Turin connection between France and Italy and the Fehmarnbelt undersea tunnel linking 
Denmark and Germany.  

Around  20  maritime  ports  in  Germany,  Ireland,  Greece,  Spain,  Croatia,  Cyprus,  Lithuania, 
Malta, the Netherlands, Poland and Finland will receive support for infrastructure  upgrades. 
Some will introduce sustainable practices such as the supply of shore-side electricity to ships 
and renewable energy transport. 

12.5  PREPAREDNESS AND RESILIENCE 

Mission Regions4Climate 

The Burgas region in Bulgaria faces a series of climate-related challenges (including flooding 
and  urban  heat  and  air  pollution)  due  to  rising  temperatures  and  the  characteristics  of  its 
terrain and wetlands. These are compounded by urban density and limited green space. 

To  combat  these  climate  challenges,  the  region  adhered  to  the  Mission  Adaptation  Charter 
and  is  part  of  the  Mission  Regions4Climate  project.  Thanks  to  the  supported  Smart 
Adaptation Challenge Suite (an innovative digital tool that gathers the latest data from diverse 
sources),  the  Burgas  region  can  bridge  the  science-stakeholder-policy  gap,  raise  citizens’ 
awareness, and improve the use of existing data. 

The  Burgas  region  has  introduced  innovative  community-involving  planning  solutions  and 
enhanced  flood  risk  prediction.  It  implements  multifunctional  nature-based  solutions  which 
also  mitigate  the  effects  of  urban  heat  islands,  address  air  pollution  and  increase  urban 
resilience.  The  region  is  using  digital  simulations  for  knowledge-sharing  and  a  tailormade 
climate  resilience  model  to  improve  decision-making.  A  local  climate  resilience  group  that 
involves a wide range of stakeholders has  been established to  monitor, steer and  consult  on 
the implementation of pilot actions, as well as to suggest corrective measures where needed. 

LIFE UrbanStorm 

LIFE  UrbanStorm  developed  climate-resilient  urban  storm  water  management  systems  in 
Estonia to better manage flash floods in urban environments. Over the project lifespan, which 
ended  in  2023,  annual  rainwater  emergencies  in  the  city  of  Viimsi  fell  from  21  to  13;  and 
from 7 to 0 in the demonstration area in the capital Tallinn. The number of floods in Viimsi 
was more than halved. 

100KTREEs: Climate change adaptation in cities  

The  ambition  of  the  HORIZON  Europe  project  100KTREES  is  to  make  cities  a  better  and 
healthier place to live by encouraging municipalities to plant more trees and to optimize the 
impact  of  tree  planting  by  leveraging  Copernicus  data.  The  benefits  of  urban  trees  planting 

104 https://eceuropaeu.sharepoint.com/sites/commission-en-direct/SitePages/EuropeandBeyond/rail-baltica-2024.aspx 

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include: improvements in air quality, increasing carbon sequestration, reduction of urban heat 
islands,  improvement  in  urban  biodiversity,  reduce  risk  of  pluvial  flooding,  reduce  noise 
levels. In particular, the project is developing a toolbox were valorisation of tree impacts, cost 
benefit  analysis,  and  what-if  scenarios  (long  and  short  term)  are  considered,  providing 
valuable business cases for the end-users for planting trees in cities and effectively implement 
climate adaptation strategies. During the development of the 100KTREEs toolbox, two end-
users  represented  in  the  consortium,  the  city  of  Copenhagen  and  the  city  of  Sofia,  will  be 
proactively  engaged  for  continued  feedback  on  its  usability  and  utility.  Co-creation 
workshops will be organized to collect the requirements of the involved municipalities. At the 
end of the project the toolbox will be offered to city clients as SaaS (Software as a Service).   

Destination Earth’s Digital Twins enhancing climate resilience 

This pioneering information system, once ready, will enable the testing of adaptation options 
and policies, considering the evolution of the Earth system in a warming world. At its core are 
several  innovative  components  including  two  digital  twins,  and  an  AI-enabled  digital 
ecosystem which intends to connect users to a portfolio of novel applications and services.    

The  Weather-Induced  Extremes  Digital  Twin  offers  global  information  at  kilometer-scale 
resolution  for  several  days  ahead,  also  creating  a  capability  to  ‘zoom  in’  on  severe  events 
across Europe. It intends to support authorities to safeguard lives and properties and prepare 
for extreme events in a warming world.  

To help adapting to the future climate, the Climate Digital Twin will enable the use of next-
generation  kilometer-scale  climate  models,  delivering  data  and  impact-relevant  climate 
indicators  both  regularly  and  on-demand.  This  advancement  will  support  climate-related 
actions, such as risk assessments, and at a later stage the assessment of adaptation options.   

12.6  SOCIETY AND COMMUNITIES 

LIFE Climate Smart Chefs 

The  LIFE  Climate  Smart  Chefs  project  has  created  the  digital  Foodprint  tool  to  design 
climate-smart  menus  that  empower  the  EU’s  chefs  to  become  active  challengers  of  climate 
change and promoters of low emission, nutritious and affordable diets. About 500 chefs in the 
EU  have  used  Foodprint  to  reformulate  recipes,  so  that  they  now  use  34%  less  water  than 
before and have reduced process CO2 emissions by 49%. 

LIFE Cool Square 

The  LIFE  Cool  Square  project  will  undertake  a  significant  greening  of  the  Damsterplein  of 
Groningen in the Netherlands. Turning it into a climate-adaptive, resilient and multifunctional 
urban  location  will  mitigate  heat  island  effects  and  reduce  the  negative  health  impacts 
associated with  traffic.  By the time the project  concludes in  2026, it is expected to  increase 
the use of Damsterplein by Groningen residents by 50% and to reduce traffic speed by 15% – 
leading to lower air pollutant levels (NOx and PM) and reduced noise emissions. 

12.7  INTERNATIONAL INITIATIVES 

In  June  2023,  the  Commission  and  the  High  Representative  adopted  a  joint  communication 
laying out how the EU will address the growing impact of climate change and environmental 
degradation on peace, security and defence.  

The four main priorities of the Communication are to: 

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•  Strengthening  planning,  decision-making  and  implementation,  through  reliable 
and accessible evidence-based analysis and data on the climate and security nexus; 

•  Operationalising the response to environment, climate and security challenges in 

EU external action and instruments; 

•  Enhancing climate adaptation and mitigation measures of EU Member States' civilian 
and military operations and  infrastructure to lower costs, carbon footprints, while 
maintaining operational effectiveness; 

•  Reinforcing 

international  partnerships through  multilateral,  plurilateral  and 

bilateral fora and with partners such as UN, OSCE, NATO, African Union. 

Copernicus’  Emergency  Management  Service  plays  an  important  role  in  supporting  early-
warning capacities, as well as the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service providing geospatial 
information on land cover and its change, water cycle and Earth's surface energy variables. 

Example of use of geospatial observation data and analysis: 

Commission and EEAS services are producing an annual comprehensive climate and security 
trend analysis. Use of data, analysis and indicators on climate and environment-related risks is 
promoted,  including  by  the  establishment  of  a  climate  and  security  hub  located  at  the  EU’s 
Satellite Centre. 

The  Commission  and  ESA  are  working  together  under  the  Joint  RTD-EOP  Earth  System 
Science initiative to jointly advance Earth system science and its contribution in responding to 
the  global  challenges  faced  by  society,  including  accelerating  the  use  of  Earth-observing 
satellites and the information which they provide to address climate change. 

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