JRC MARS bulletin : crop monitoring in Europe. Vol. 32 No 6, June 2024.
Date: 2024-06-24
Institutions: Joint Research Centre
Subjects: Europe, agricultural situation, atmospheric conditions, crop production, crop yield, meteorology, serial publication

Issued: 24 June 2024 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 

JRC MARS Bulletin 
Crop monitoring in Europe 
June 2024 

Difficult start to summer lowers yield prospects 
Yield forecasts at EU level remain close to 5-year average 

Durum wheat was most strongly reduced, mainly due to 

downward revisions for France and Italy. The yield forecast 

for soft wheat was revised most substantially downward 

for Italy, Romania and The Netherlands, and is now at the 

mediocre level of the 5-year average at EU level. 

Water excess continued in the Benelux, western Germany, 

north-eastern  France  and  northern 

Italy,  negatively 

affecting crop growth and field operations. Summer crops 

sowing is still ongoing in several of these regions; with an 

overall delay of up to two months. In southern Germany, 

recent  intense  rainfall  events  led  to  water  logging  and 

local floods after previously favourable conditions.  

In  eastern  Germany,  south-western  Poland  and  north-

eastern Poland soil  moisture levels are  depleting, so far 

without negative impacts on crops. This is not the case in 

parts of Hungary, Romania, Ukraine and Russia, where a 

lasting  water  deficit  negatively  affected  the  yield 

expectations for winter crops. 

In  Spain,  where  overall  yield  expectations  are  positive, 

heatwaves in June worsened the condition of winter crops 

in some parts in the east that had already been affected 

by water stress. 

This issue of the Bulletin features a special section on rice 

in Europe.  

Contents: 

1. 
2. 
3. 
4.  
5. 
6. 
7. 

Agrometeorological overview 
Remote sensing – observed canopy conditions 
Grassland and fodder monitoring 
Rice in Europe 
Country analysis 
Crop yield forecast 
Atlas 

Covers the period from 1 May until 15 June 

 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

1.  Agrometeorological overview 

1.1.  Areas of concern 

As  of  March,  the  areas-of-concern  analysis  follows  a 

different  approach  from  that  used  for  previous  MARS 
bulletins.The  alert  map  shows  unusual  weather  events 
that occurred during the analysis period, from 1 May 
to 16 June, with potential negative impacts on crops. 
The  crop  impacts  maps  shows  regions  where  crops 
(winter, spring and/or summer) were negatively affected in 
terms of area and/or yield. This map shows impacts that 
have occurred since the start of the season. However, 
reduced  areas  or  resowing  of  specific  crops  without 

substantial impact on the yield potential of the other sown 

areas of that crop are not repeated in subsequent editions 

of  the  Bulletin  once  reduced  areas  are  reflected  in  the 

statistics. 

Water  excess  continues  in  the  Netherlands,  Belgium, 

Luxembourg, western Germany and north-eastern France. 

Overly wet soil conditions are ongoing since April (in large 

areas  since  autumn  2023)  and  negatively  affected  crop 

growth and field operations. Winter crops in the Benelux 

countries  and  western  Germany  where  intense  rains, 

water  logging  have  affect  them  around  flowering. 

Concerns  about  summer  crops  in  the  above-mentioned 

regions  are  due  to  possible  root  anoxia,  and  delayed 

sowings – well beyond the optimal window, particularly in 

the Benelux countries. Pest and disease pressure remains 

also high in these regions, due to the combination of warm 

temperatures  during  most  of  spring,  high  humidity,  and 

the  difficult  conditions  for  spraying  and  other  field 

operations.  In  southern  Germany  recent  intense  rainfall 

events  led  to  local  floods  and  overly  wet  soils  after 

previously  favourable  conditions.  While  local  damage  is 

starting to be reported, the rainfall in the coming weeks 

will  be  crucial  to  determine  the  intensity  and  extent  of 

potential losses especially concerning summer crops. 

In northern Italy, the review period was the wettest in our 

records. Winter crops are suffering from a broad range of 

negative  factors  such  as  root  anoxia,  lodging,  reduced 

pollination and impossible field operations. Summer crops 

sowing  (or  re-sowing)  is  still  ongoing;  the  overall  delay 

might  sum  up  to  two  months.  Final  yields  will  strongly 

depend  on  temperatures  during  summer  and  farmers 

adaptation  strategy  (e.g.  moving  production  from  grain 

maize to green maize). Average yields are still possible in 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

case  of  favourable  weather  conditions  during  the 

In  Spain,  some  eastern  regions  have  experienced  a  rain 

remainder of the growth cycle. 

deficit  since  the  start  of  the  season,  and  heatwaves  in 

In  eastern  Germany,  south-western  Poland  and  north-

June  further  deteriorated  the  condition  of  winter  crops 

eastern Poland soil  moisture levels are  depleting, so far 

during  grain  filling  in  part  of  these  regions,  with  a 

without negative impacts on crops. This situation may be 

consequent very strong decrease in yield expectations. 

mitigated  by  the  precipitation  that  is  forecast  for  the 

The  areas  marked  on  the  winter  crop  impact  map  in 

coming days. This is not the case in south-eastern Hungary 

western France, western Türkiye, Greece, Cyprus, southern 

and  western  and  south-eastern  Romania,  as  well  as  in 

Italy and the Maghreb region, are associated with negative 

eastern Ukraine and western Russia, where a lasting water 

impacts that occurred before the analysis period.  

deficit  negatively  affected  the  yield  expectations  for 

winter crops.  

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

1.2.  Spring review (March, April, May) 
Spring was characterised by warmer-than-usual conditions in most of Europe, yet marked by cold spells in central and 

north-eastern regions. Distinctly wetter-than-usual conditions prevailed in western Europe, while parts of central, eastern 

and southern Europe were unusually dry. 

in the northernmost Tanger Tetouan – Al Hoceima region 

of  Morocco.  In  most  of  these  regions,  the  spring  ranked 

among the wettest three in our records since 1991.  
A marked rain deficit was observed in parts of Finland, 
Poland, southern Greece and the Valencia region in Spain 

(particularly in April and May), as well as in large areas of 

European  Russia  and  eastern  Ukraine,  and  in  northern 

Algeria.  
A  distinct  temperature  surplus  was  observed  in  the 
United Kingdom, in the Benelux countries and eastwards 

into central, southern and eastern Europe, and in southern 

parts of northern Europe, as well as the Balkan peninsula, 

most of Türkiye and the north African coast. In many of 

these regions, spring ranked among the warmest three in 

our records since 1991.  
Series of unusual warm spells, with daily maximum and 
average  temperatures  exceeding  the  90th  percentile  of 

the LTA, were observed in Bulgaria and Romania with the 

first episodes detected in April (1–8 and 14–17). A warm 

spell  was  also  observed  in  Greece  in  the  second  half  of 

May  (approximately  15–25)  and  in  central  Spain  at  the 
end of May (27–31). Multiple warm spells have also been 
observed in the Maghreb region since March and in Türkiye 

since April.  
A severe cold spell, with a sudden drop in minimum daily 
temperatures  of  up  to  10 °C,  or  more  overnight,  was 
observed  in  southern  Sweden  and  Finland,  in  central 

Germany and extending south-east into northern Czechia 

and western Poland, as well as in parts of the Austrian and 
Italian Alps region around 19–24 April. More about the late 
April  cold  spell  was  reported  in  the  May  issue  of  the 

bulletin.  In  easternmost  Belarus  and  parts  of  European 
Russia, a cold spell was observed around 10–12 May. 

The weather synthesis map above presents a summarised 

review  of  the  most  distinct  anomalies  during  spring  in 

reference  to  the  1991–2023  long-term  average  (LTA). 

Temperature  and  rainfall  surplus  and  deficit  represent 

unusual  absolute  and  relative  deviations  from  the  LTA 

considering  the  March–May  reporting  period.  Warm  and 

cold spells correspond to extreme temperature lows and 

highs within a 5-day period relative to the 90th and 10th 

percentiles considering the same period in previous years 

(since 1991),. The weather synthesis map is supplemented 

by  the  usual  single-indicator  maps  (below)  for  further 

context on each event.  

Rain  surplus  was  particularly  high  in  the  north-west 
Iberian  peninsula,  the  Catalan  coast  of  Spain,  most  of 

France,  most  of  the  United  Kingdom,  the  Benelux 

countries, and in western parts of central Europe, northern 

Italy, Slovenia and Odes’ka oblast in Ukraine, and locally 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

1.3.  Meteorological review (1 May – 15 June 2024) 
While cooler northern masses brought wetter-than-usual conditions to western and central Europe, intense heat built up 

in  many  parts  of  southern  Europe,  particularly  the  south-eastern  Mediterranean  region,  with  record-high  daily 

temperatures in some areas. Warmer-than-usual conditions prevailed in northern Europe. 

our records since 1991. In the Alps region, as well as other 
parts  of  France  and  central  Europe,  more  than  15 days 
with daily rainfall above 5 mm and cumulative rainfall of 
250 mm  or  more  were  observed,  leading  to  flooding  in 
some regions. 
Rain  deficit  was  marked  in  southern  Finland,  north-
eastern  Poland  and  southern  regions  of  the  Iberian 

peninsula, along the North African coast, in most of Greece 
and in south-western Türkiye, as well as in an area from 
eastern Ukraine extending into southern European Russia. 
Cumulative  rainfall  in  these  areas  was  below  50 mm 
(corresponding  to  between  50 %  and  100 %  below  the 
LTA),  and  in  some  of  these  regions  the  review  period 

ranked among the three driest in our records since 1991.  
A  distinct  temperature  surplus  was  observed  in  the 
in  the  eastern 
North  Sea–Baltic  Sea  region,  and 

Mediterranean region, where average daily temperatures 
exceeded the LTA by up to 2–4 °C and the review period 
ranked  among  the  three  warmest  in  our  records  since 

1991.  
Warm  spells,  with  daily  maximum  and  average 
temperatures  exceeding  the  90th  percentile  of  the  LTA, 

were observed in parts of the Iberian  peninsula and the 

North  African  coast  of  Algeria  and  Tunisia,  in  Sicily  and 

southern  Italy  (Puglia),  the  Balkan  peninsula,  southern 
Romania,  Türkiye,  south-eastern  Ukraine,  and  southern 
and central regions of European Russia. In the last dekad 

of  May  and  the  first  half  of  June,  average  daily 
temperatures up to 6 °C above the LTA were observed in 
central and northern regions of European Russia.  
Cold  spells  with  average  daily  temperatures  between 
4 °C and 6 °C (in some areas up to 8 °C) below the LTA in 
the first half of May were observed in central and western 

The weather synthesis map above presents a summarised 

review of the most distinct anomalies during the reporting 

period in reference to the 1991–2023 LTA. Temperature 

and rainfall surplus and deficit represent unusual absolute 

and  relative  deviations  from  the  LTA  for  the  reporting 
period  from  1 May  to  15 June.  Warm  and  cold  spells 

correspond to extreme temperature lows and highs within 

a 5-day period relative to the 90th and 10th percentiles, 

considering  the  same  period  in  previous  years  (since 

1991),  and  respective  absolute  temperature  thresholds. 

The  weather  synthesis  map  is  supplemented  by  single-

indicator maps for further context on each event. 

An  exceptional  rain  surplus  was  observed  in  north-
western  Spain,  western  Scotland,  Denmark,  northern, 

western  and  southern 

regions  of  Germany, 

the 

Netherlands,  most  of  Belgium  and  Luxembourg,  central 

France from east to west, northern Italy, most of Austria, 

parts  of  European  Russia  and  the  region  bordering 

Slovenia, and parts of northern Croatia, western Hungary, 

Slovakia  and  Czechia.  A  marked  rain  surplus  was  also 
observed  in  parts  of  central  and  eastern  Türkiye  and 
south-eastern European Russia. In many of these regions, 
cumulative  rainfall  exceeded  the  LTA  by  50 %  or  more, 
and the review period ranked among the wettest three in 

Belarus.  
A  distinct  temperature  swing  marked  by  the  sharp 
transition  between  colder-than-usual  conditions  in  May 

and  warmer-than-usual  conditions  at  the  beginning  of 

June occurred in central European Russia 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

1.4.  Weather forecast (20 - 29 June) 
A frontal system brings thunderstorms and rains into the Alps region, the Eastern European Plain, and Ural Mountains; 

warmer-than-average conditions are forecast for a wide north-south band from Scandinavia to southern Italy and the 

Black Sea region. 

Colder-than-usual  conditions,  with  average  daily 
temperatures up to 2 °C (in parts of European Russia up 
to 6 °C) below the LTA are forecast for parts of the Iberian 

Peninsula, south-western France, and north-western Italy.  
Warmer-than-usual  conditions  are  forecast  for  most 
of  the  rest  of  Europe.  Most  substantial  positive 

most of the Balkan Peninsula, Türkyie, and Cyprus, as well 

as parts of Scandinavia, European Russia, and Ukraine.    
Wet conditions (rainfall above 10 mm) are forecast for 
most other parts of Europe, while very wet conditions 
(above 70 mm) are forecast for the Alps region, northern 
Italy and Slovenia, as well as eastern parts of European 

temperature anomalies (between 4 °C and 6 °C, locally up 

to  8  °C  above  the  LTA)  are  forecast  for  parts  of  the 

Scandinavian Peninsula and southernmost Italy, most of 

Russia. 
The long-range weather forecast points to highly likely 
warm  conditions,  exceeding  the  24-year  climatological 

the  Balkan  Peninsula,  and  south-western  Türkyie. 

median in July-August by up to 1°C in the Great European 

Maximum temperatures on the hottest days are forecast 

Plain and northern Europe, and by up to 2°C in the rest of 

to exceed 35 °C in large parts of southern Europe and the 

Europe, and in September – by up to 1°C in most of Europe. 

Balkan region.  
Dry  conditions  (total  precipitation  below  3 mm)  are 
forecast for most of the Iberian Peninsula, southern Italy, 

Albeit  with  high  uncertainty,  precipitation  up  to  50  mm 

below  the  mean  is  forecast  for  most  of  central  and 

southern Europe, mainly in July-August; near-normal – in 

September. 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

2.  Remote sensing – observed canopy conditions 

Early and below-average fAPAR peak in most of Europe 

The  map  displays  the  relative  differences  (in  percentages)  between  the  cumulated  fraction  of  absorbed 
photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) from 1 May to 10 June 2024 and the medium-term average (MTA, 2014–

2023) for the same period.  Positive  anomalies (in green) reflect above-average biomass or  early crop development, 

while negative anomalies (in red) reflect below-average biomass or late crop development. 

The  map  above  displays  predominantly  winter  crop 

conditions during the season. However, the Mediterranean 

conditions, as biomass accumulation for summer crops in 

northern  and  central  Europe  has  just  started  and  is 

contributing  little  to  variations  in  fAPAR  values.  Across 

part of Spain is experiencing a worsening situation due to 
a persistent lack of rainfall. In most parts of Italy, fAPAR 
is  in  line  with  the  MTA,  thanks  to  abundant  rain  and 

Europe,  the  fAPAR  signals  peaked  earlier  than  usual 

moderate temperatures. Yet in southern regions, such as 

thanks  to  advanced  development  associated  with  the 

Puglia  and  Sicilia,  the  ongoing  water  deficit  caused  a 

early start of spring. However, overall conditions have not 

been favourable, leading to a below-average fAPAR peak. 
In  the  United  Kingdom,  northern  France,  the  Benelux 
countries  and  western  Germany,  the  fAPAR  is  slightly 
lower  than  the  MTA  as  a  result  of  the  water  excess  in 

spring  which  yielded  to  below-average  fAPAR  peak  of 

winter crops and delayed sowing of summer crops. 
In most  parts of the Iberian peninsula, fAPAR remains 
above  average,  as  crops  benefited  from  favourable 

9 

significant drop in biomass accumulation. 
In Bulgaria and eastern Romania, the growing season of 
winter crops has progressed early into the ripening phase 

at  a  normal  rate,  supported  by  above-average  water 
availability  since  mid  April.  Likewise,  in  Türkiye,  the 
observed  negative  anomaly  in  fAPAR  is  indicative  of  an 

early start of the ripening phase, which is not attributed to 

any problems in crop development. 

 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

In south-eastern Hungary, the advanced season, coupled 
with drier-than-usual conditions until mid May, has led to 

a significantly earlier onset of the ripening phase. In the 
rest of Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia, above-average 
rainfall has sustained the green canopies, which is likely 

to result in a longer period of biomass accumulation than 

typically observed. 
In eastern Germany and Poland, the fAPAR levels, which 
have not peaked yet, are higher than average thanks to 

the season since its early onset. In this region, the peak of 

fAPAR has not yet been reached. 
In the Maghreb, the cereal season has come to an end. 
Cereal yields were severely affected by drought in large 
parts  of  Morocco  and  the  northwestern  regions  of 
Algeria. Favourable growing conditions sustained above-
average crop growth in Tunisia. 
In Ukraine, fAPAR levels in the western regions are near 
the MTA, thanks to the favourable weather that prevailed 

the advanced stage of crop growth. Nonetheless, the lack 

until the beginning of May. However, the succeeding dry 

of sufficient rainfall in May and early June might hinder 

spell  curtailed  the  hitherto  promising  outlook  for  crop 

the attainment of above-average fAPAR peaks. The impact 

yields. In the eastern Ukrainian oblasts and the adjacent 

of  reduced  precipitation  is  already  becoming  evident  in 
south-western Poland and south-eastern Germany.  
The positive fAPAR anomaly in northern Europe (including 
Denmark, Sweden and the Baltic states) is associated 
with the favourable conditions that have prevailed during 

Russian oblasts, ongoing drought conditions are seriously 

affecting  the  yield  potential.  In  the  Central  okrug  of 
Russia, the fAPAR observations signal distinct damage to 
crops (locally crop failure), as a consequence of the late 

frosts that occurred in early May. 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

3.  Grassland and fodder monitoring 

Grasslands thrive in the north and east  

The review period is characterised by warmer-than-usual temperatures in central and northern Europe and abundant 

rainfall in western and part of central Europe. Grassland biomass remains above average in most of northern and eastern 

Europe, and in most parts of the Iberian peninsula. In other parts of western and southern Europe, accumulated biomass 

is average to below average, due to water excess (in the west) or deficit (in the south). 

The map below displays the differences between the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) 
cumulated from 1 May to 10 June 2024, and the medium-term average (MTA, 2014–2023) for the same period. Positive 
anomalies  (in  green)  reflect  above-average  surface  greenness,  representing  above-average  biomass  accumulation, 

while negative anomalies (in red) reflect below-average surface greenness.

In  Ireland,  the  remote  sensing  signal  is  slightly  above 
average in the western half of the country, and in line with 
the  average  in  the  eastern  half.  In  France,  the  map 
productivity. 
suggests 

close-to-average 

grassland 

However,  wet  conditions  complicate  field  operations, 

especially  in  the  central  western  part  and  Alsace  and 

Lorraine, which experienced record levels of rainfall. In the 
Benelux  countries  and  western  Germany,  overly  wet 
conditions  continued  to  hamper  growth  and  field 

operations.  Some  farmers  have  not  yet  been  able  to 

conduct  the  first  cut  in  the  most-affected  areas,  and 

12 

grazing  is  less  frequent  than  usual  to  avoid  damage  to 
muddy sods. Grasslands in southern Germany still appear 
to  be  in  fair  shape,  yet  recent  rainfall  and  local  floods 

probably decreased the biomass accumulation. 
In  northern  Germany,  above-average  temperatures  and 
beneficial  rainfall  increased  biomass  accumulation,  as 

reflected  in  the  above-average  fAPAR  signals.  However, 

the east is still suffering from a soil moisture deficit that 

has started to slow down biomass accumulation rates. In 
Poland,  warm  temperatures  stabilised  above-average 
biomass accumulation rates, and recent rainfall sustained 

 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

growth. However, in the western parts of the country, the 

recent warm period caused further depletion of soil water 

levels, with negative effects on biomass accumulation. In 
Denmark and Sweden, grasslands are in good condition, 
and  the  above-average  fAPAR  signal  suggests  higher-
In  Finland,  warm 
than-usual 
temperatures and adequate rainfall led to above-average 

levels  of  biomass. 

levels  of  biomass  despite  the  complicated  (colder-  and 
drier-than-usual)  start  of  the  season.  In  the  Baltic 
countries,  growing  conditions  are  positive,  with  well-
above-average biomass levels in all three countries. 
In Czechia, grassland biomass reached a plateau in May, 
with  levels  above  the  MTA  in  the  east  thanks  to  warm 

temperatures. Conversely, levels are slightly below normal 
further west. In Slovakia, growth slowed down after an 
early  start,  but  remains  above  average.  In  Austria, 
biomass  accumulation  returned  to  normal,  except  in 

Burgenland,  where  biomass  levels  are  higher  than  last 

year  and  the  MTA,  thanks  to  significant  rainfall  in  the 
second half of May. In Hungary, grasslands in the west 
benefited  from  abundant  precipitation,  while  the  long-

In western and central Romania, biomass formation is in 
line  with  the  average  thanks  to  near-average  rainfall. 

South-eastern  regions  experienced  a  rainfall  deficit 

resulting  in  an  early  decrease  in  photosynthetic  activity 
and  below-average  grassland  productivity.  In  Bulgaria 
and Greece, biomass formation is in line with the average 
or above average. 
In northern Italy, grasslands suffered as a result of the 
overly  wet  conditions,  which  limited  growth  and  caused 

water logging in the soils. At the same time, green maize, 

the  most  common  fodder  crop  in  northern  Italy,  is 

significantly delayed due to the wet soils that hampered 

sowings. While grassland and fodder crops in central Italy 

are  progressing  well  under  very  favourable  weather 

conditions, in southern Italy, notably eastern regions and 

Sicilia, they strongly suffered due to a persistent deficit of 

precipitation and high temperatures. 
Northern  Spain  and  Portugal  continue  to  benefit  from 
this  year’s  favourable  weather  conditions.  Except  in 

Aragon,  which  is  still  suffering  from  the  drought  that 

affected  the  eastern  part  of  the  peninsula,  the  fAPAR 

lasting  rainfall  deficit  and  above-average  temperatures 

signal  continues  to  indicate  above-average  biomass 

advanced 

led 
to 
photosynthetic 

and 
decreased 
senescence 
and  Slovenia 
activity.  Croatia 
experienced  favourable  weather  conditions,  maintaining 

accumulation.  In  the  south  of  the  peninsula,  the  remote 

sensing  signal  showed  a  return  to  close-to-average 

biomass accumulation, and grasslands are about to enter 

above-average biomass accumulation levels. 

their summer dormancy phase.

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

4.  Rice in Europe 

A favourable start to the season, despite sowing delays 

The sowing campaign in large parts of Europe’s rice-growing regions was characterised by delays, as a consequence of 
frequent rain events in April and May. Compared with 2023, the area sown with rice is projected to increase by 4 % in 
Italy (which accounts for 55 % of EU production) and by 13 % in Spain (which represents 23 % of EU production). The 

increase in the sown area was driven by the higher levels of snowpacks and of water in reservoirs available for irrigation. 
The yield forecast is based on historical trends and is 7.0 % above the 5-year average at the EU level. 

In Italy, this year's sowing  campaign  was influenced by 
continuous  and  incessant  rainfall  in  northern  regions  in 

March  and  April.  Most  farmers  had  to  postpone  the 

In Portugal, the start of the rice season was marked by 
temperatures 2–3 °C above average in April, followed by 
moderately below-average temperatures in May and June. 

preparation of rice fields, and consequently the sowing, as 

Rainfall  has  been  very  favourable,  and,  unlike  2023,  no 

is clearly reflected in the fAPAR profile below for Vercelli. 

restrictions are expected on the use of irrigation water for 

The short periods during which soil moisture levels were 

rice  fields.  Rice  growth  is  somewhat  delayed  compared 

suitable  for  sowing  were  used  for  dry  seeding  with  late 

with an average season, but faring well overall in both the 

rice  varieties.  The  prevailing  relatively  low  temperatures 

Coimbra and Leziria do Tejo regions. Our yield forecast is 

may  have  reduced  the  effectiveness  of  pre-emergence 
weed treatments. An increase of 9 600 ha in the rice area 
is  expected  this  season,  representing  a  4.1 %  increase 
compared with 2023 (but in line with 2022) (1).  
The sowing campaign in Spain has progressed with some 
delays,  but  overall  well  as  a  result  of  improved  water 

availability.  According  to  government  information,  the 

rice-cultivated  areas  will  reach  even  64  000  ha,  nearly 
15 %  more  than  the  previous  season( 2 ).  The  sowing 
campaign in Andalucía proceeded smoothly. The peculiar 

in line with the medium-term trend.  

Seasonal  weather  conditions  have  prevailed  in  southern 
France (Bouches-du-Rhône), with frequent rain events in 
May  and  temperatures  in  line  with  the  LTA  in  May  and 

June.  Such  weather  conditions  allowed  the  favourable 

progress  of  sowing  and  good  emergence,  resulting  in 

positive expectations for final production.  
In  Bulgaria  (Plovdiv  and  Stara  Zagora),  seasonal  daily 
temperatures  since  the  last  dekad  of  April  and  average 

rainfall allowed the timely completion of the rice-sowing 

fAPAR  image  for  Seville  is  attributed  to  weeds  that 

campaign. Satellite images confirm a phenological stage 

proliferated after rice fields were abandoned in 2023, but 

at  the  beginning  of  the  vegetative  phase  and  biomass 

that were removed before this year’s sowing campaign. In 

accumulation levels in line with the MTA. Our forecast is 

Extremadura, a normal irrigation campaign is expected to 

cover  the  entire  rice-cultivated  area,  but  farmers 

experienced difficulties in procuring seed after a very poor 

year for rice seed producers in 2023. Positive expectations 

also prevail in the rice-cultivated areas at the mouth of 

the Ebro (Cataluña) and Albufera (Valencia) rivers, given 

close to the 5-year average.  
The start to the rice season in Romania was characterised 
by seasonal or slightly below-average daily temperatures 

in May, followed by a rise in temperatures in June to 3–
4 °C  above  the  LTA.  Precipitation  was  around  the  LTA. 
Biomass accumulation during the early vegetative stages 

the  improved  water  availability.  Our  yield  forecast  is 

appears to be higher than average and similar to last year. 

above the 5-year average.  
The  onset  of  the  rice  season  in  Greece,  specifically  in 
Central Macedonia, was delayed by 10–15 days because 

of  the  rainy  weather  in  mid  April,  which  hindered 

Our  yield  forecast  for  the  country  is  above  the  5-year 

average. 
Hungary  has  experienced  mild  temperatures  and  near-
average precipitation. The area sown with rice is expected 

preparatory  field  work  (i.e.  land  levelling,  soil  tillage). 

to be similar to last year. The potential yield variation will 

Despite  the  delay,  plant  emergence  at  the  beginning  of 

June  progressed  well.  Overall  expectations  for  final 

production are positive. 

largely depend on temperatures in the coming months. At 
this  stage,  our  yield  forecast  is  trend-based:  3 %  above 
the average of the last 5 years. 

(1) 
(2) 

https://www.enterisi.it/servizi/funzioni/download.aspx?ID=109851&IDc=784 
https://www.mapa.gob.es/es/estadistica/temas/estadisticas-agrarias/cuaderno_marzo2024_tcm30-683977.pdf  

15 

 
 
 
 
                                                        
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

16 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

17 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

The maps display the difference between the cumulative fraction of photosynthetic active radiation (fAPAR) from 1 April 
to 10 June 2024 and the medium-term average (2014–2023) for the same period. Mask: rice areas based on Corine 

Land Cover 2018. Data source: JRC MARS remote sensing database / MODIS. 

18 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

5.  Country analysis 

5.1.  European Union 
France 
Continuing wet conditions resulting in below-average yield outlook for most crops 

The  wet  weather  persisted  across  France,  significantly 

The wet conditions continue to have a negative impact on 

increasing  the  risk  of  pests  and  diseases  for  winter  and 

winter and spring crops, which are currently in the grain-

spring  crops.  Unfavourable  weather  also  impeded  the 

filling  stage.  Pest  and  disease  pressure  remains  high  in 

sowing  process  and  hindered  the  early  development  of 

most regions, particularly in the north-east and in parcels 

summer crops. 

The  review  period  was  characterised  by  wetter-than-

average  conditions  across  a  wide  band  from  the  north-

east to the central Atlantic coast. During the review period, 
the  north-eastern  region  experienced  up  to  200 mm  of 
precipitation, exceeding the average more than two-fold. 
From 1 to 20 May, the western regions received more than 
130 mm of rain, making 2024’s the wettest season in our 
30-year  record  database.  Overall,  temperatures  in  May 

were close to average, whereas June saw below-average 

temperatures,  especially  in  the  north.  Radiation  levels 

during  the  review  period  were  slightly  below  average 
(– 1.5 % at the country level). 

with  heavy  and  poorly  draining  soils.  However,  the 

relatively  mild  temperatures  since  May  have  had  a 

positive effect during the grain-filling stage, such that a 

low ear density may be compensated for by higher-than-

normal grain weights. The summer crop sowing campaign 
was  completed  in  early  June,  about  2 weeks  later  than 
usual.  This  delay  might  affect  yields,  as  farmers  had  to 

choose early-maturing varieties with lower yield potential. 

Yield  forecasts  for  soft  wheat  and  rapeseed  have  been 

reduced to account for the effects of persistent rain, while 

the  yield  outlook  of  summer  crops  is  slightly  reduced 

because of the expected shorter season; both winter and 

summer crop yield forecasts are now around or below the 

trend.  

19 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Germany 
Favourable conditions in the north and east, while the south and west face serious 
water excess 

Warm conditions in the north and east were beneficial for 

decreased  soil  water  levels  (e.g.  -25%  in  Mecklenburg-

crop development but are starting to dry soils in the east. 

Vorpommern) and hence considerably reduced plant water 

Heavy rainfall with serious flooding in the west and south 

availability. 

caused  overly  wet  soils  that  compromise  growing 

Currently,  these  conditions  have  not  yet  affected  plant 

conditions.  

The first half of May was characterised by slightly colder-

than-usual  weather  and  episodic 

rainfall  events, 

especially in southern and western Germany. Since then, 

above-average  temperatures  during  the  day  and  below-

average  temperatures  at  night  have  brought  the 

temperature sum for the reporting period as a whole close 

to  the  LTA.  The  dry  period  led  to  a  considerable  rainfall 

deficit, with record-low precipitation totals since mid-May 

(only approximately 50% of  the LTA in the country as a 

whole  and  a  deficit  of  around  80%  in  the  north-east). 

While abundant precipitation in the previous months had 

fully restored soil moisture in the west and south, northern 

and  eastern  Germany  did  not  experience  this  beneficial 

rainfall  and  these  areas  are  now  facing  severely 

growth  and  consequently  our  yield  forecasts  for  winter 

crops  remain  above  the  5-year  average.  Rainfall  in  the 

coming  weeks  will  be  crucial  for  grain  filling  and  for 

maintaining yield expectations, and weather forecasts for 

the next week suggest the return of precipitation across 

Germany,  even  though  it  might  remain  below  average. 

Summer  crops, benefiting from the  higher temperatures 

and  radiation  levels  during  the  day,  have  so  far  gained 

ground  after  the  delay  in  sowing  but  are  still  behind 

schedule. However, if conditions remain dry, the increasing 

soil  moisture  deficit  may  have  a  significant  negative 

impact on crop development and yield. Our yield estimates 

for summer crops remain generally positive compared to 

both the 5-year average and 2022, but some were revised 

downwards (e.g. sugar beet, potatoes and sunflowers). 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Detecting rapeseed flowering using earth observation 

In 2024 Germany has experienced the warmest period from mid-February to mid-April recorded in 

the past 30 years. The advances of plant phenology were visible across nearly all vegetation types in 

central European countries. Key phenological phases were advanced by up to two weeks, including 

the  flowering  of  winter  rapeseed.  The  accurate  detection  of  flowering  is  an  important  step  for 

successful yield predictions.  

Information  from  the  Copernicus  Sentinel-2  satellites  deliver  adequate  temporal  and  spectral 
information to timely identify the yellow colour of flowering rapeseed parcels3. The following example 
shows the potential for such quantification for rapeseed parcels in Brandenburg, Germany (around 

100’000  ha in 2023), and the differences in flowering peaks from  2018 to  2024. The ‘Flowering 

peak’  in  the  graph  below  describes  the  moment,  in  which  the  yellowness  of  a  parcel  reaches  its 

maximum. The lines in the graph show the cumulative occurrence of parcels that met this criterion 

over  time.  They  reveal  that  the  widespread  peak  of  flowering  in  2024  was  reached  considerably 

earlier as compared to the six years before. When compared to phenological ground observations of 
the beginning of flowering, provided by the German Weather Service (DWD4), a delay of the detected 
flowering peak of one to two weeks can be regularly observed throughout the years, which is in good 

agreement with the expected phenological development of rapeseed and demonstrates the stability 

of the approach. This analysis can be extended to other regions, offering in-season information on 

the flowering stages of rapeseed and could improve future yield predictions. 

3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2020.111660 
2 https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/phaeno_akt/phaenoakt.html 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Poland 
Positive yield outlook despite concerns about rainfall deficit 

The  very  warm  May,  with  temperatures  above  average 

after  the  summer  crop  sowing  were  beneficial  for 

across 

the  country,  provided 

favourable  growing 

emergence  and  early  development.  However,  the  still 

conditions.  However,  below-average  precipitation  further 

limited soil moisture levels  have not yet impacted  crops 

deteriorated the available soil water, with additional rain 

and could lead to a decrease in productivity during grain 

required.  

In May, temperatures across Poland reached record levels 
of up to 30 °C, especially in the north, before returning to 
average  levels  in  June.  At  the  same  time,  it  was 

exceptionally dry in the first two dekads of May, leading 

to a fast decline of soil moisture. Thereafter and until early 
June, about 30–80 mm of rainfall partially alleviated the 
soil  water  deficit  but  the  combination  with  high 

temperatures  led  to  topsoils  continuing  to  be  dry, 

especially in the north-east and south-west. 

Both summer and winter crops benefited from the warm 

conditions.  Repeated  rainfall  and  warm  temperatures 

filling  if  these  conditions  persist.  More  rain  is  needed 

quickly to sustain the growth of both winter and summer 

crops. Current weather forecasts show that deficits might 

be eliminated in the north-east, but the forecasted rainfall 

will probably not suffice in the west. 

Considering the favourable overall conditions and the still-

limited  influence  of  the  soil  moisture  deficit,  our  winter 

crop yield forecasts have been slightly increased. The yield 

forecasts  of  summer  crops  have 

received  minor 

adjustments, mainly positive, to account for the beneficial 

weather conditions.

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Romania 
Yield forecast revised down for winter crops 

Beneficial rains provided adequate water supply in most 

were favourable for yield formation. The hot spell in June 

parts of Romania, but the important south-eastern regions 

accelerated  canopy  senescence  and  shortened  the 

suffered a precipitation deficit. The yield outlook for winter 

reproductive phase. 

crops was revised down. The situation is also delicate for 

Crop  model  simulations  show  near-  to  above-average 

summer crops in the south. 

In May, daily temperatures fluctuated above the LTA in the 

north-eastern  regions,  but  remained  slightly  below 

average in the south-east, while elsewhere near-seasonal 

thermal  conditions  were  experienced. 

In 

late  May, 

temperatures  steeply 

increased,  and  there  was  a 

heatwave  in  the  southern  and  eastern  areas,  with  daily 
maxima between 30 °C and 37 °C until 12 June. 
Precipitation during the review period was in the range of 
80–160 mm in most of Romania, thus reaching the LTA or 
exceeding  it  by  up  to  60 %.  However,  in  western  and 
south-eastern  regions,  rainfall  remained  mostly  below 

average  and  was  poorly  distributed,  since  most  of  it 
arrived around 13 June, after a long dry period. 
While the warm period in April advanced the development 

of winter crops, the more moderate temperatures of May 

biomass accumulation of winter crops in most regions, but 

in some areas at the western border (in the Vest region), 

and  in  the  south-eastern  part  of  the  country  (e.g.  Sud-

Muntenia,  Sud-Est)  along  the  foot  of  the  Carpathian 

Mountains, biomass accumulation is below average due to 

the limited water supply. Therefore, our yield forecasts for 

winter cereals were revised downwards and are now close 

to the 5-year average. 

Soil  moisture  contents  for  summer  crops  decreased 

sharply  to  below-average  levels  in  southern  Romania. 

Canopy  development  and  biomass  formation  have  been 

adequate  so  far,  but  (unless  irrigated)  the  crops  have 

become very vulnerable to dry and hot conditions, which 

are forecast for the coming week. The yield forecasts for 

grain  maize  and  sunflowers  were  revised  downwards  to 

below the 5-year average. 

23 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Spain and Portugal 
Continuing positive outlook for winter and spring crops 

The  harvest  of  winter  crops  has  begun  in  the  southern 

too late to be of significant benefit. Consequently, below-

regions of the peninsula. Field-based reports confirm the 

average winter crop yields are expected in areas such as 

positive yield expectations. Favourable conditions persist 

southern Aragon, southern Cataluña and eastern Albacete 

in  Castilla  y  León,  while  water  deficit  and  heat  stress 

in Castilla La Mancha. 

reduced  the  yield  potential  in  eastern  regions.  Summer 

In southern parts of the peninsula, the harvest of winter 

crops are developing under average conditions.  

cereals began during the second half of May and has been 

During  the  review  period,  the  south  of  the  peninsula 

experienced  dry  conditions,  while  widespread  rains 

occurred in the north, and precipitation arrived in the east 

in June. Heat spells occurred in the first half of both May 

and June, whereas the second half of May was colder than 

usual. These conditions facilitated the grain filling of crops 

in Castilla y León. However, the heat spells had a negative 

impact  in  the  eastern  parts  of  the  peninsula,  which  had 

been suffering from a water deficit since the start of the 

season. The rains recorded in June in these regions arrived 

progressing  very  well.  Above-average  yields  and  quality 
have been confirmed by regional authorities5 and farmers 
organisations6. The harvest is about to start in Castilla La 
Mancha and southern areas of Castilla y León.  

At national level, our yield forecasts for winter and spring 

crops are maintained, notably above the 5-year average. 

Our crop simulation models suggest that summer crops in 

both  countries  are  progressing  well  in  growth  and 

development,  in  line  with  an  average  season.  The  yield 

forecast remains slightly above the 5-year average.

5 https://www.juntadeandalucia.es/agriculturapescaaguaydesarrollorural/raif/boletin-provincial/informe-semanal/ 
6 https://www.agrodigital.com/2024/05/27/iniciada-la-cosecha-de-trigos-en-andalucia-con-luces-y-sombras-segun-
las-zonas/ 

24 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                        
 
  
 
 
  
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Hungary 
Winter crop yield forecasts revised down 

In  the  south-east,  winter  crops  faced  water  supply 

The  phenological  development  of  winter  crops 

is 

problems that led to a downward revision of our forecasts 

advanced. In the east, below-average soil moisture levels 

for winter cereals, together with the heatwave forecast for 

prevailed  in  May  despite  some  recurring  rainfall  in  late 

the  third dekad of June. Summer crops  have shown fair 

May  and  early  June.  The  limited  crop  water  supply 

development and growth so far.  

compromised  the  biomass  accumulation  of  storage 

Average weather predominated during the first dekad of 

May. A short but significant drop in temperatures occurred 
around  15 May.  During  this  cold  spell,  daily  minimum 
temperatures  decreased  to  slightly  below  0 °C  in  some 
north-eastern  regions.  From  18 May  onward,  daily 
temperatures  mostly  increased  again  to  above  the  LTA, 

but  remained  in  a  moderate  range,  with  maxima 
exceeding 30 °C only for a few days in early June. Scarce 
(< 10 mm) rainfall characterised the northern and eastern 
regions until mid May. Later, substantial rainfall occurred 

across the country, and rainfall totals for the whole review 
period  approached  normal  levels  (60–80 mm)  in  the 
south-east, while elsewhere 100–200 mm was recorded, 
30–150 % above the LTA.  

organs  and  accelerated  the  senescence  of  leaves.  In 

contrast,  the  soil  moisture  levels  remained  high  in  the 

west during the flowering and early grain-filling stages of 

winter  crops.  Here,  the  pest  pressure  has  been  high. 

Therefore,  the  overall  yield  forecasts  for  winter  cereals 

and rapeseed have been revised downward.  

The  growth  of  spring  and  summer  crops  is  moderately 

advanced.  The  soil  water  content  is  satisfactory  for 

vegetative  development,  except  in  the  east,  where  it  is 

moderately below average. As biomass accumulation and 

canopy  expansion  are  adequate,  our  yield  forecasts  of 

summer crops have been increased to slightly above the 

trend. 

25 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Italy 
Winter crop conditions further deteriorated 

While  the  persistent  over-wet  conditions  in  the  north 

the next few weeks the season could still develop more 

continue  to  affect  both  winter  and  summer  crops,  the 

favourably,  and  final  yields  could  still  reach  average 

continued dry spell in the south is reducing durum wheat 

values. 

yield expectations. 

In the north, the spring season of 2024 is the wettest in 

our 

records 

(since  1978).  Although 

temperatures 

remained  around  average,  the  persistent  cloud  cover 

significantly  reduced  incoming  radiation,  particularly  in 
Friuli-Venezia  Giulia  (– 30 %  since  1 May).  Winter  crops 
are  now  close  to  maturity,  but  the  abundant  rain 

negatively  affected  pollination  and  caused  widespread 

lodging.  The  soils  remain  too  wet  for  proper  field 

management,  and  harvest  cannot  start.  In  addition,  the 

excess  humidity  might  affect  the  quality  of  winter  crop 

grains.  Regarding  summer  crops,  the  planting  of  maize 

and soybeans was considerably delayed, and initial growth 

has been slow so far. In certain areas, notably in the north-

east, planting is yet to be completed, or replanting is still 

to occur. Nevertheless, with average summer conditions in 

In central Italy (Toscana, Marche, Umbria, Lazio), crops are 

progressing well under average weather conditions. Winter 

crops are approaching the end of their cycle with fair yield 

expectations. 

In the south, the weather has been continuously warmer 

than usual with only occasional rainfall. While the rain has 

been beneficial locally, it arrived too late to mitigate the 

negative impacts of the dry spell of recent months, which 

caused early senescence of durum wheat (e.g. in Puglia). 

In Sicilia, the loss of durum wheat and forage production 

is likely to be considerable. 

Overall, our yield expectations for winter crops have been 

decreased  owing  to  the  unfavourable  conditions  in  both 

northern and southern regions. For summer crops, despite 

a difficult start to the season, our yield forecasts remain 

around the trend. 

26 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Czechia, Austria and Slovakia 
Crops in good condition and ahead in development

Favourable  weather  continues  to  sustain  the  growth  of 

The rain in June replenished soil moisture levels, allowing 

crops. While winter crops are still recovering from the very 

wet winter, spring crops are in good condition. 

Warm  temperatures,  slightly  above  the  LTA,  prevailed 

during the review period. 

Increasing  rainfall  since  the  end  of  May  has  optimally 

accompanied  the  temperature  increase,  resulting  in  a 

favourable soil water balance, except for eastern Moravia, 

where there is still a water deficit. 

Weather conditions in May were beneficial to winter crops, 

which  are  now  in  good  condition.  However,  they  had 

already  completed  vegetative  development  with  slightly 

below-average  biomass  due  to  the  wet  winter,  which 

restricted root development. 

crops to take up nitrogen from the soil and fill the grains. 
As no significant rainfall is forecast in the next 10 days to 
adversely affect the grain-filling stage, winter crops have 

a  realistic  outlook  for  a  decent  yield  despite  the  wet 

winter. 

The  warm  weather  with  sufficient  moisture  supply  will 

continue to support a steady growth of spring and summer 

crops. 

Our yield forecasts for winter crops are mostly unchanged, 

close to the historical trends. Spring and summer crops are 

still in early stages. The grain-filling stage will be crucial 

for the success of their season; so far, we have kept the 

yield forecast of spring and summer crops in line with the 

trend. 

27 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Bulgaria 
Beneficial rain for winter and summer crops 

Near-  to  above-average  rainfall  improved  the  water 

moisture close to average levels. This, together with the 

supply  conditions  for  winter  and  summer  crops.  Yield 

mild, 

slightly 

colder-than-average, 

temperatures, 

formation  of  winter  cereals  is  promising  in  spite  of  high 

supported the yield formation during flowering and early 

temperatures in June. Growth of summer crops has been 

grain  filling  of  winter  cereals.  However,  these  benefits 

adequate so far and yield expectations are above average.  

were partly undone by the hot conditions in June. Towards 

Considering  the  review  period  as  a  whole  (1 May – 
in 
15 June),  seasonal  thermal  conditions  prevailed 
Bulgaria, but May was slightly colder than usual, whereas 
the first  half of June was decidedly (by 2–5 °C)  warmer 
than  usual.  During  this  warm  spell,  daily  maximum 
temperatures  mostly  exceeded  30 °C,  and  reached  33–
38 °C on the hottest days. 
Rainfall totals reached 50–150 mm in most regions. In the 
Severozapaden  and  Yugozapaden  regions,  precipitation 
exceeded the LTA by 10–55 %. Only the southern parts of 
the  country  (some  parts  of  Yugoiztochen  and  Yuzhen 
Tsentralen)  received  slightly  (10–30 %)  below-average 
rainfall. 

After  the  abundant  precipitation  of  late  April,  rainfall 

during the current review period was sufficient to keep soil 

mid June, soil moisture under winter crops decreased to 

below  average  in  central  Bulgaria,  but  near-seasonal 

levels prevailed in the eastern and western regions of the 

country.  Our  yield  forecasts  for  winter  crops  were 

maintained. 

Summer  crops  also  benefited  from  the  improved  water 

supply  conditions  that  have  existed  since  mid  April. 

Biomass  accumulation  and  canopy  expansion  of  grain 

maize and sunflower crops are near or above average in 

the  main  producing  northern  areas.  Growth  is  weaker  in 

the south-east, due to more  limited water supply to the 

shallow-rooting  young  stands.  Yield  expectations  at 

national level are positive, above the 5-year average. 

28 

 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Denmark and Sweden 
Positive outlook with warmer and drier weather 

Warmer-than-usual  weather  combined  with  adequate 

were in line with the LTA in Denmark but above average 

rainfall  sustained  crop  development  in  both  countries. 

in Sweden. 

After  challenging  winter  conditions,  the  outlook  now  is 

Satellite observations (MODIS) indicate crop development 

positive,  and  crop  yield  forecasts  are  revised  upwards 

in  line  with  or  slightly  above  normal  in  Denmark,  and 

accordingly. 

Temperatures  were  prevalently  above  normal  in  both 

countries,  especially  during  the  second  half  of  May. 

Despite a cold spell in early June, overall temperatures for 

the review  period rank among the three warmest in our 

records,  thus  resulting  in  a  large  positive  anomaly  in 
cumulative temperatures (Tbase = 0 °C). The first 3 weeks 
of May were predominantly dry, whereas during the rest 

of the review period regular rainfall events were reported 

in  both  countries.  Rainfall  totals  in  most  regions  of 

Denmark and in Västsverige in Sweden were well above 
average (60 % above the LTA in Denmark), while close to 
or below average in the rest of Sweden. Radiation levels 

predominantly  above  normal 

throughout  Sweden, 

indicating overall good crop conditions in both countries. 

The  warm  temperatures  accelerated  winter  and  spring 

crop  development.  According  to  our  models,  soft  wheat 
development is advanced by approximately 1 week in both 
countries and has almost completed flowering. Similarly, 
spring barley reached flowering 10 days ahead of normal. 
However,  the  warm  and  wet  weather  during  the  review 

period may have favoured the development and spreading 

of diseases in Denmark. 

Overall,  crops  are  expected  to  be  in  good  condition.  Our 

yield  forecasts  for  winter  and  spring  crops  have  been 

revised to above the trend.

29 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland 
Overall good prospects for crops 

The  review  period  has  been  exceptionally  warm  in  the 

the recently emerged crops. Then regular rainfall occurred 

Baltic region, and dry by and large until early June. Crops 

in  June  in  all  four  countries,  alleviating  the  crop  water 

are expected to be in fair condition in Finland and Estonia, 

stress in Finland and Estonia. 

and even in good condition in Lithuania and Latvia.  

MODIS-derived 

fAPAR  data  show  advanced  crop 

Below-average temperatures prevailed in the first week of 

May;  in  Estonia  and  Finland,  a  few  days  with  minimum 
temperatures  close  to  or  below  0 °C  were  reported  that 
may  have  slowed  down  spring  sowing  and  may  have 

caused  damage  to  recently  emerged  crops.  Then 

temperatures increased and  were largely above the LTA 

from  the  second  week  of  May  until  the  second  week  of 

June,  when  they  returned  to  normal.  A  large  positive 

temperature anomaly resulted in the four countries, with 

the  period  ranking  amongst  the  three  warmest  in  our 

records.  Precipitation  was  scarce  during  most  of  May, 

especially in Finland and Estonia, so, in combination with 

exceptionally  warm  temperatures,  it  may  have  affected 

development 

in  Latvia  and  Lithuania,  suggesting 

favourable  growing  conditions  and  above  -average 

biomass accumulation. In Finland and Estonia, the fAPAR 

signal is close to average. 

Despite overall favourable conditions, concerns remain in 

Finland  and  Estonia  because  of  the  cold  spell  at  the 

beginning  of  the  review  period  and  the  dry  and  warm 

conditions that  prevailed  until early June. The outlook is 

more  positive  in  Latvia  and  Lithuania,  where  the  water 

deficit was less pronounced. Winter and spring crop yield 

forecasts  are  maintained  in  Finland  and  Estonia  and 

revised upwards in Latvia and Lithuania, above the 5-year 

average. 

30 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Greece 
Winter crop campaign concluded with moderately above-average yield expectations 

The  harvest  of  winter  crops  finished  better  in  the  north 

between the end of April and the beginning of May, under 

than in central Greece thanks to late rainfall, while spring 

overall favourable conditions. Increasing temperatures in 

crops were sown under beneficial weather conditions with 

June and irrigation supported the early growth stages of 

average temperatures and above-average rainfall. 

In  mainland  Greece,  the  northward  progression  of  the 

winter crop harvest during the review period corresponded 

to the advancement in crop development. In parallel, the 

yields increased from central Greece to the north, because 

crops harvested later in more northerly regions benefited 

from  the  end-of-season  rainfall.  Consequently,  winter 

crop  yields,  but  also  crop  quality,  are  forecast  to  be 

summer crops. Additionally, there has been an increase in 
sunflower cultivation by around 25 % due to anticipated 
higher income. 

For both winter and summer crops, the cultivated area in 

Thessaly was reduced due to the floods last September, 

which rendered land uncultivable. 

Our  yield  forecasts  mostly  confirm  our  previous  outlook 

for Greece, showing a moderately above-average yield for 

winter  crops  and  continuing  the  historical  trend  for 

moderately  above  average  in  the  northern  Macedonian 

summer crops. 

regions, whereas they remain below average in Thessaly. 

The  sowing  of  summer  crops  in  Greece  was  completed 

31 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Ireland 
Warm temperatures support crop development, but also diseases 

Favourable  weather  allowed  crops  to  partially  recover 

that  crops  have  not  yet  fully  recovered  from  the  overly 

from adverse winter and early spring conditions. However, 

wet  conditions  of  winter  and  early  spring,  despite  the 

challenges remain, as the warm and wet conditions could 

presently favourable weather. 

favour  the  spread  of  diseases.  Our  yield  forecasts  are 

maintained. 

Temperatures were largely above the LTA during the first 

half  of  May,  while  the  rest  of  the  month  was  close  to 

average  and  the  first  week  of  June  slightly  colder  than 

average.  Overall,  a  positive  temperature  anomaly  was 

recorded  throughout  the  country.  Rainfall  occurred 

throughout  the  review  period,  albeit  limited  in  quantity, 

with a few intense episodes caused by thunderstorms in 

the  south.  Overall,  below-average  rainfall  totals  were 

reported  in  the  Eastern  and  Midland  region,  and  levels 

were close to average in the Southern region. Cumulative 

radiation levels remained below average. 

Biomass  development  as  inferred  from  MODIS  satellite 

data remains below average across the country, indicating 

According  to  our  model  simulations,  soft  wheat  reached 
flowering about 10 days ahead of average, while biomass 
accumulation is around normal levels. A similar advance 

in the  cycle is  reported for spring barley, although large 

variations in development can be expected considering the 

sowing delays reported in the previous editions. 

Besides improved growing conditions, the warm and wet 

weather  since  March  could  also  have  favoured  the 

development and spread of diseases. The coming weeks 

will be crucial as crops are reaching their flowering stage. 

Our  forecasts  remain  unchanged,  below  the  5-year 

average  for  winter  crops  and  only  slightly  below  the  5-

year average for spring crops. 

32 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands 
Continued rainfall further dampens yield expectations

After a record-wet May, dry conditions in the first week of 

These weather conditions – the high rainfall in particular 

June brought some relief to crops and farmers, but then 

–  were  unfavourable  for  crops.  Sowing  of  potatoes  and 

rain resumed again with frequent and substantial events, 

maize,  which  was  already  severely  delayed,  was 

which  are  expected  to  continue  well  beyond  the  review 

practically  impossible  during  the  second  half  of  May. 

period.  Yield  forecasts  for  all  crops  were  revised 

Conditions  improved  in  the  first  week  of  June,  but  soon 

downward.  

Temperatures were predominantly above the LTA in May 

and  below  the  LTA  in  the  first  half  of  June.  May  was 

particularly  warm  in  the  Netherlands,  where  it  was  the 

second  warmest  in  our  records  (after  May  2018). 

Considering the review period as a whole, mean average 

temperatures  were  in  line  with  the  LTA  in  Belgium  and 

Luxembourg,  and  slightly  above 

the  LTA 

in 

the 

Netherlands.  Rainfall  was  50-100%  above  the  LTA, 

making the review period the wettest in our archive (since 

1991)  in  Luxembourg  and  the  Netherlands,  and  the 

second  wettest  (after  2016)  in  Belgium.  Rainfall  events 

were particularly frequent (almost daily) in the second half 

of May. 

after  the  time  that  the  soils  were  sufficiently  drained  it 

started  raining  again.  Such  delays  come  with  a  yield 

penalty, and are likely to lead to late harvesting in autumn, 

when  soil  moisture  conditions  also 

tend 

to  be 

unfavourable. Even sugar beet sowing has not been totally 
completed yet7.  
Pest and disease pressure also remains high. Farmers are 

particularly  concerned  about  phytophthora  in  potatoes. 

The  incidence  of  aphids,  which  can  transmit  the  leaf 

yellows virus in sugar beet, has been manageable so far.  

Part  of  the  winter  cereals  were  exposed  to  the 

unfavourably wet conditions during the sensitive flowering 

stage. The impacts on the yield potential are negative but 

highly uncertain at this stage. 

.

7 https://www.akkerwijzer.nl/artikel/1042873-bij-het-begin-van-de-zomer-zijn-nog-steeds-niet-alle-bieten-gezaaid  

33 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                        
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Slovenia and Croatia 
Winter crop yield outlook remains above the 5-year average 

Abundant rainfall in May maintained good crop conditions, 

increased disease pressure and may affect grain quality 

but  also  increased  the  risk  of  diseases  regionally.  The 

in those fields that were not treated in time. As noted in 

harvest of winter cereals started earlier than usual, with 

previous 

bulletins, 

the 

warmer-than-average 

yield forecasts slightly above the 5-year average. 

In  Slovenia  and  Croatia,  May  was  characterised  by 

temperatures in line with the LTA, whereas the first dekad 

of  June  was  warmer  than  usual.  The  review  period  was 

particularly wet across both countries, with rainfall totals 

significantly  above  the  LTA.  Particularly  noteworthy  are 

the  precipitation  totals 
in  western  Slovenia,  which 
exceeded the LTA by 100–150 % and reached more than 
400 mm. 
Moderate temperatures in May facilitated grain ripening, 

and  the  precipitation  contributed  to  the  recovery  of  soil 

moisture in some areas of eastern Croatia. However, the 

warmer temperatures during the first dekad of June and 

the continued  rainfall, particularly in Slovenia,  have also 

temperatures during the season have advanced the winter 
crop cycle by approximately 2 weeks. In fact, the harvest 
already started in early June in eastern Croatia, and it is 

about to begin in Slovenia. 

Our  model  simulations  indicate  above-average  biomass 

levels  in  Vzhodna  Slovenija  and  Sjeverna  Hrvatska,  and 

average values in Panonska Hrvatska. Our yield forecasts 

for winter crops remain slightly above the 5-year average. 

The  adequate  water  supply  so  far,  the  expected  rise  in 

temperatures  in  June  and  the  forecast  of  a  drier  period 

should  all  be  beneficial  for  the  positive  development  of 

summer crops. However, as it is too early to evaluate the 

impact  of  these  conditions  with  certainty,  our  yield 

forecasts  for  summer  crops  remain  in  line  with  the 

historical trend.

34 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

5.2.  United Kingdom 

Fears are allayed while the weather is getting better 

Winter  crops  are  recovering  but  still  in  poorer  condition 

favourable  than  those  of  last  year,  particularly  in  the 

than last year. Spring crops are late but on track for decent 

north, and yields will definitively remain below the last 5-

yields. 

year average. 

While rainfall in the south has returned to almost normal 

levels  since  May,  the  northern  regions  are  still  suffering 

from 

continued 

above-average 

precipitation. 

Temperatures  have  been  generally  higher  than  the  LTA, 

except  for  the  first  half  of  June,  which  was  cooler. 

However, the warm weather is forecast to be back in the 

next dekad. 

The good weather conditions in the south enabled winter 

crops to partially recover from the extremely wet winter. 

However,  their  conditions  are  still  significantly  less 

Spring crops were drilled late because of the ongoing rain. 

Consequently,  their  development  is  behind  the  medium-
term average (MTA), up to 3 weeks in the East Midlands, 
although lately they  have  been showing fast  growth. To 

catch  up  further  within  a  reduced  time  window,  dry  and 

sunny weather is needed in the coming weeks to allow the 

successful  grain  filling  and  yield  development  of  spring 

crops. 
Our forecasts remain on average 5 % below the historical 
trend for winter crops, but in line with the trend for spring 

crops. 

35 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

5.3.  Black Sea Area 

Ukraine 
Yield outlook for winter crops considerably reduced by dry conditions in May 

Whereas  until  April  weather  conditions  were  generally 

favourable in Ukraine (except the east), dry conditions in 

May and high temperatures in June adversely affected the 

eastern  half  of  the  country,  with  6–12 days  with 
maximum temperatures above 30 °C.  
The  rain  deficit  in  May  adversely  affected  the  flowering 

yield outlook for winter crops and spring cereals. 

stage  of  winter  and  spring  crops  throughout  Ukraine, 

During the review period, Ukraine experienced a significant 

shortfall in rainfall throughout the country, with levels up 
to 100 % below the LTA. In 70 % of the country, May 2024 
was  one  of  the  three  driest  of  the  past  30 years. 
Considering the review period as a whole, western Ukraine 
saw temperatures that were 0.5–2 °C above the LTA, while 
temperatures in central and most of eastern Ukraine were 

average. At the end of May, a heatwave developed in the 

except  Odes’ka.  In  June,  the  heatwave  particularly 

affected  the  east,  hindering  the  development  of  cereal 

grains.  The  summer  crop  sowing  campaign  is  now 

concluded.  Although  temperatures  were  favourable,  the 

dry conditions in the eastern half of the  country did not 

support  adequate  emergence.  The  winter  crop  yield 

outlook is reduced to below the average.  

A  more  detailed  analysis  is  provided  in  the  JRC  MARS 
bulletin global outlook on Ukraine for June 2024 ( 8). 

(8) 

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC136677. 
36 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                        
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Türkiye 
Rain sustains a favourable outlook 

Frequent 

rainfall  and  a  warmer-than-usual  spring 

supported the grain filling of winter crops, which are now 

close  to  maturity.  Summer  crops  are  still  at  the  very 

summer  temperatures  that  already  moved  average 
temperatures to 4 °C above  the LTA since early June. In 
western  (Ankara,  Konya)  and  central  Anatolia  (Kırıkkale), 

beginning of the cycle. 

In  Türkiye,  precipitation  in  May  was  well  above  the  LTA 
(> 50 %),  with  temperatures  close  to  the  average.  Since 
early June, rainfall has almost ceased and temperatures 
increased,  with  maximum  values  reaching  up  to  6 °C 
above the LTA. 

In western regions, the rainfall only partially mitigated the 

negative impact of the very warm weather occurring since 
15 May, which turned hot in June with two heatwaves and 
maximum  temperatures  above  35 °C.  Winter  crops 
entered  maturity  stages  in  early  June,  as  the  hot  spell 

shortened  the  grain-filling  period  and  reduced  the  yield 

expectations below the average. 

In western Anatolia (e.g. Konya), rainfall totals were 80–
150 mm above the LTA. The low soil moisture of early May 
recovered to optimal levels and is now sufficient to sustain 

winter crops up to the end of their cycle, even with rising 

winter crop development was favoured by the rainfall in 

May.  In  Ankara, where crops  suffered as a result of low 

soil  moisture  in  April,  winter  crops  fully  recovered  and 

reach  maturity  in  average  conditions.  In  Konya  and 

Kırıkkale, where winter crops were sustained by irrigation, 

they developed favourably throughout May and are now 

in  the  grain-filling  stage  under  favourable  conditions. 

Summer crops had a late but good start of season thanks 

to a beneficial soil moisture content and the availability of 

water for irrigation. 

In  south-east  Anatolia  (e.g.  Şanlıurfa,  Dyarbakır),  the 

winter  crop  cycle  has  finished  with  very  good  yield 

expectations  thanks  to  a  warm  season  with  sufficient 

rainfall. 

Overall,  yield  expectations  for  winter  crops  have  slightly 

increased  since  our  last  assessment.  Summer  crop 

forecasts are still preliminary and based on trend analysis.

37 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

5.4.  European Russia and Belarus 

European Russia 
Unfavourable weather conditions 

Cold weather conditions and  frost events in May caused 

delay  to  the  spring  sowing  campaign  in  the  northern 

regions of Central and  Volga okrugs. In  southern Russia, 

high 

temperatures  and 

low  soil  moisture 

levels 

compromised the biomass accumulation of winter cereals. 

Krasnodarskiy),  the  rainfall  total  remained  30–80 % 
below  the  LTA.  In  contrast,  eastern  and  northern  crop-

producing  regions  were  wetter  than  usual,  with  rainfall 
totals typically between 60 and 120 mm. 
The  development  of  winter  cereals  became  advanced  in 

Yield  expectations  for  wheat  are  below  the  5-year 

the  regions  between  the  Black  Sea  and  Caspian  Sea. 

average. 

Temperatures  in  May  presented  a  west–east  gradient, 
from 1–2 °C above the LTA  along the western border to 
4–5 °C below the LTA along the Ural Mountains. In the first 
dekad of May, frost events in the range of – 2 °C to – 6 °C 
occurred  in  the  Central,  Southern  and  Volga  okrugs, 

causing  damage  to  the  unhardened  winter  crops  and 

spring  crops.  The  last  days  of  May  and  the  first  half  of 

June were warmer than usual, with temperatures ranging 
from 1–2 °C above the LTA in the westernmost territories 
to 6–8 °C above the LTA in the east. During the first half 
of  June,  8–17  hot  days  (with  Tmax > 30 °C)  occurred  in 
southern Russia and along the Kazakh border, but even in 

southern parts of the Central okrug and northern parts of 

the Volga okrug 2–5 hot days occurred. 

Rainfall was below the LTA in the areas between the Black 

Sea and the Caspian Sea. In some important winter wheat 

producing areas (e.g. in Rostovskaya, Volgogradskaya and 

Winter  cereals  are  in  the  grain-filling  phase,  but  in  the 

southernmost  areas  ripening  has  been  reached.  In 

southern  and  western  regions,  the  negative  impacts  of 

deficient  water  supply,  frost  and/or  heatwaves  on  crop 

canopies and biomass accumulation are clearly visible on 

satellite  images,  and  led  to  a  sharp  drop  in  the  yield 

potential. 

The  progress  of  the  spring  sowing  campaign  was 

hampered  by  cold  and  wet  weather  conditions.  Low 

temperatures were unfavourable for early development of 

spring  cereals  in  the  northern  and  eastern  regions  of 

European Russia. The sowing of grain maize also suffered 

delays (especially in the Central and Volga okrugs) due to 

cold  soils.  In  the  southern  maize  cultivation  regions,  the 

high temperatures and dry conditions are a concern. 

A  more  detailed  analysis,  with  quantitative  yield  and 

production  forecasts,  will  be  provided  in  the  JRC  MARS 

bulletin global outlook on Russia, which will be published 

1 July 2024.

38 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Belarus 
Continued positive yield expectations 

Above-average temperatures and adequate soil moisture 

Overall  these  weather  conditions  continued  to  sustain 

continued to benefit winter, spring and summer crops. Soil 

above-average growth and development of winter crops, 

water  levels  have  dropped  substantially  but  rain  in  the 

spring  barley  and  grain  maize.  No  damage  to  cereals  is 

coming days is expected to sustain a high yield potential. 

expected  from  the  frost  event  in  early  May,  and  also 

The  yield  forecast  for  wheat  and  barley  were  revised 

maximum  temperatures  did  not  reach  damaging  levels. 

upward. 

Considering  the  review  period  as  a  whole,  mean  daily 

temperatures  slightly  exceeded  the  LTA  the  first  half  of 

May and the second week of June were slightly colder than 

usual,  whereas  the  period  in  between  was  distinctly 

warmer than usual. A significant frost event occurred from 

8 to 9 May in the north, where temperatures dropped to -

4°C. Precipitation was in most regions below the LTA, with 

the most distinct negative anomaly (up to 40%) in central 

eastern  parts  of  the  country.  Most  rainfall  occurred  end 

May and the first dekad of June. 

However, 

the 

combination 

of 

above-average 

temperatures  (and  radiation)  caused  rapid  soil  water 

depletion, particularly below the fully grown winter crops, 

where  in  some  areas  water  deficiency  has  started  to 

affect  growth.  Nevertheless,  current  soil  water  reserves 

and  rain  expected  in  the  coming  days  are  expected  to 

sustain well-above average yields. 

The  yield  forecasts  for  wheat  and  barley  were  revised 

upward,  whereas  the  forecast  for  grain  maize  was 

maintained in line with the historical trend, above the 5-

year average. 

39 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

5.5.  Maghreb 

Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia 
Negative outlook for Morocco, average to positive expectations for Algeria and 
Tunisia 

The  yield  outlook  for  cereals  in  Morocco  remains  well-

below  average  due  to  drought.  In  Algeria,  severe  yield 

losses in the west are mostly offset at the national level 

yield  forecasts  range  from  29%  (durum  wheat)  to  27% 
(soft wheat) below the 5-year average. In Algeria, cereals 
are at the end of harvesting as well. At the country level, 

by  above-average  yields  in  central  and  north-eastern 

yield  expectations  for  winter  cereals  remain  around 

regions.  In  Tunisia,  favorable  weather  conditions  have 

average,  as  marked  negative  anomalies  for  biomass 

resulted in a positive yield outlook. 

accumulation in the north-western agricultural regions are 

During  the  period  under  review,  most  of  the  cereal-

producing regions of Maghreb experienced below to well-

below average precipitation, resulting in a cumulative rain 

deficit of 15 to 40 mm compared with the LTA. Average 

daily temperatures were 0.5-2.0 °C above the LTA. Harvest 
operations  have  been  completed  in  Morocco,  with  crop 
failures across the country due to seasonal drought. Our 

expected to be offset by above-average crop performance 

in a large belt of littoral and continental regions in central 
and eastern Algeria. In Tunisia, overall positive conditions 
were  observed  for  wheat  and  barley.  Harvesting  is 

finished, and no biotic or abiotic stress took place in the 

last phase of the crops’ cycle. Our forecasts are above the 

5-year average. 

40 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

6.  Crop yield forecast 

41 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

50 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Official Eurostat Crop definition*
Common wheat (Triticum aestivum L. emend.
Fiori et Paol.), spelt (Triticum spelta L.), einkorn
wheat
(Triticum monococcum L.) and durum
wheat (Triticum durum  Desf.).
Barley (Hordeum vulgare  L.).
Common wheat (Triticum aestivum L. emend.
Fiori et Paol.), spelt
(Triticum spelta L.) and
einkorn wheat (Triticum monococcum  L.).
Triticum durum  Desf.

Barley (Hordeum vulgare  L.) sown in the spring.

Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) sown before or
during winter.
Maize (Zea mays L.) harvested for grain, as
seed or as corn-cob-mix.
All forms of maize (Zea mays L.) grown mainly
for silage (whole cob, parts of or whole plant)
and not harvested for grain.
Rye (Secale cereale L.) sown any time, mixtures
of
rye and other cereals and other cereal
mixtures sown before or during the winter
(maslin).
Triticale (x Triticosecale  Wittmack).
L.) and turnip rape
Rape (Brassica napus
(Brassica rapa L. var. oleifera (Lam.)) grown for
the production of oil, harvested as dry grains.
Sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.) intended for the
sugar industry, alcohol production or renewable
energy production.
Potatoes (Solanum tuberosum  L.).
Sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) harvested as
dry grains.
Soya (Glycine max L. Merril) harvested as dry
grains.
All varieties of broad and field beans (Faba
vulgaris (Moench) syn. Vicia faba L.
(partim))
harvested dry for grain, including seed.
All varieties of field peas (Pisum sativum L.
convar. sativum or Pisum sativum L. convar.
arvense L. or convar. speciosum) harvested dry
for grain, including seed.
Rice (Oryza sativa , L.).

Cop name

Eurostat Crop name

Eurostat Crop Code

Total wheat

Wheat and spelt

Total barley

Barley

Soft wheat

Common wheat and spelt

Durum what

Durum wheat

Spring barley

Spring barley

Winter barley

Winter barley

Grain maize

Grain maize and corn-cob-mix

Green maize

Green maize

C1100

C1300

C1110

C1120

C1320

C1310

C1500

G3000

Rye

Rye and winter cereal mixtures (maslin)

C1200

Triticale

Triticale

Rape and turnip 
rape

Rape and turnip rape seeds

Sugar beet

Sugar beet (excluding seed)

Potatoes

Potatoes (including seed potatoes)

Sunflower

Sunflower seed

Soybeans

Soya

Field beans

Broad and field beans

Field peas

Field peas

Rice

* Source: 

Rice

C1600

I1110

R2000

R1000

I1120

I1130

P1200

P1100

C2000

Eurostat - Annual crop statistics (Handbook 2020 Edition)

51 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

7.  Atlas 

Temperature regime 

Precipitation 

52 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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53 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Climatic water balance 

Weather events 

54 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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55 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

Crop development stages and precocity 

56 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Relative soil moisture 

57 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Winter wheat: precipitation and temperatures around flowering 

Maize: precipitation and temperatures around crop development 

58 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 6 – 24 June 2024 

JRC MARS Bulletin 2024 

Date 

Publication 

22 Jan 
26 Feb 
25 Mar 

22 Apr 

27 May 

24 Jun 

22 Jul 

26 Aug 

23 Sep 

28 Oct 

25 Nov 

16 Dec 

Agromet analysis 
Agromet analysis 
Agromet analysis, yield 
forecast 
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing, 
pasture analysis, 
sowing conditions, yield 
forecast 
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing, 
pasture analysis, 
sowing update, yield 
forecast 
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing, 
pasture analysis, rice 
analysis, yield forecast  
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing, 
pasture analysis, 
harvesting conditions, 
yield forecast 
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing, 
pasture update, 
harvesting update, yield 
forecast 
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing, 
pasture analysis, rice 
analysis, harvesting 
update, yield forecast  
Agromet analysis, 
pasture update, sowing 
conditions, harvesting 
update, yield forecast  
Agromet analysis, 
sowing update, 
harvesting update 
Agromet analysis 

Reference 

Vol. 32 No 1 
Vol. 32 No 2 
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The JRC MARS Bulletin – Crop monitoring in Europe is a 
European Commission publication of the Joint 
Research Centre’s AGRI4CAST project (JRC Food 
Security Unit – Directorate for Sustainable Resources) 

JRC MARS Bulletins are available at 
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins 

AGRI4CAST Resources are available at 
https://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu 

Analysis and reports 
Biavetti, I., Bussay, A., Cerrani, I., Claverie, M., De Palma, 
P., Fumagalli, D., Luque Reyes, J., Manfron, G., Morel, J., 
Nisini, L., Panarello, L., Rossi, M., Sedano, F., Seguini, L., 
Tarnavsky, E., Todoroff, P., van den Berg, M., Zucchini, A. 

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Reporting support  
Prepress projects Ltd., Biavetti, I. 

Edition  
Van den Berg, M., Niemeyer, S. 

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Data production 
AGRI4CAST (Food Security Unit JRC D5), MARSOP6 
Consortium 

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Contact 
JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu  

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Legal notice 
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on 
behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which 
might be made of this publication. 

Disclaimer 
The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation 
and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not 
necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.   

Technical note  
The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a 
reference is calculated on the basis of weather data from 
1991-2023.  

© European Union, 2024 

Mission statement 
The Joint Research Centre provides independent, 
evidence-based knowledge and science, supporting EU 
policies to positively impact society. 

ISSN 2443-8278 doi:10.2760/439527 KJ-AW-24-006-EN-N 

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