COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Fiscal Statistical Tables providing background data relevant for the assessment of the budgetary policies of the Member States Accompanying the document Recommendations for COUNCIL RECOMMENDATIONS on the 2024 economic, social, employment, structural and budgetary policies of Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland and Sweden
Date: 2024-06-19
Institutions: European Commission, Secretariat-General
Subjects: EU Member State, budget policy, economic policy, economic recovery, economic reform, employment policy, public finance, social policy, stability pact

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 19.6.2024  SWD(2024) 600 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Fiscal Statistical Tables providing background data relevant for the assessment of the budgetary policies of the Member States Accompanying the document Recommendations for COUNCIL RECOMMENDATIONS on the 2024 economic, social, employment, structural and budgetary policies of Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland and Sweden {COM(2024) 601 final} - {SWD(2024) 601 final}  
 
 
The  Fiscal  Statistical  Tables  provide  background  data  relevant  for  the  assessment  of  Member 
States’ budgetary situation.  

With  the  entry  into  force  of  the  new  economic  governance  framework (1),  Member  States  are  no 
longer  required  to  submit  their  Stability  and  Convergence  Programmes  to  the  European 
Commission. In anticipation of this situation, and with the aim to reduce the reporting burden for 
Member States, the Commission has proposed to limit the reporting requirements for Stability and 
Convergence  Programmes  and  left  the  format  and  level  of  detail  of  the  reporting  to  the 
appreciation of Member States.  

Against  this  background,  the  Fiscal  Statistical  Tables  were  adapted  and  solely  report  the 
Commission projections on the basis  of the 2024 spring forecast. The tables do no longer report 
side-by-side  the  information  included  in  the  Stability  and  Convergence  Programmes.  Instead,  for 
those  Member  States  who  submitted  a  Stability  and  Convergence  Programme,  a  dedicated  table 
reports on the main macroeconomic and fiscal indicators included therein.  In detail, the following 
tables are provided for each Member State: 

Table 1 (Macroeconomic developments and forecasts) shows the main macroeconomic data, 
including real GDP growth and its components, the output gap, employment, unemployment, labour 
productivity, inflation, the GDP deflator, compensation of employees, and the net borrowing/lending 
vis-à-vis the rest of the world. The table shows the projections  from the Commission 2024 spring 
forecast. 

Table  2  (General  government  budgetary  position)  shows  data  on  the  main  general 
government  revenue  and  expenditure  variables  and  budgetary  targets  based  on  the  Commission 
2024 spring forecast. 

Table 3 (Main indicators for fiscal surveillance) includes the relevant fiscal indicators that are 
used  for  fiscal  surveillance  at  this  stage.  The  table  also  details  the  setting  of  the  recommended 
(maximum) growth rate for net nationally financed primary expenditure in 2024. 

Table 4 (General government debt developments) shows the evolution of general government 
debt and provides a breakdown of the change in the debt-to-GDP ratio based on the contributions 
of  the  primary  balance,  the  ‘snow-ball  effect’  (reflecting  the  relationship  between  nominal  GDP 
growth and interest expenditure), and the ‘stock-flow adjustment’ (that is, other factors that have 
an impact on general government debt, such as differences between cash and accrual recording, or 
the net accumulation of financial assets). 

Table  5  (Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility  –  Grants)  presents  data  on  grants  from  the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility as reported by the Member States, their cash disbursements, and 
the expenditure categories (or other costs) financed by those grants. 

(1)  Link to new regulation. 

1 

 
 
 
 
Table 6  (Recovery and Resilience Facility  – Loans), where applicable,  presents data on cash 
disbursements and repayments of loans from/to the Recovery and Resilience Facility as reported by 
the  Member  States,  their  cash  disbursements,  and  the  expenditure  categories  (or  other  costs) 
financed by those loans. 

Table  7  (Main  macroeconomic  and  fiscal  indicators  presented  in  the  Stability  and 
Convergence Programme in case submitted by the Member State)2 

The Fiscal Statistical Tables are complemented by two thematic boxes: 

Box  1  (Fiscal  surveillance  indicators  used  in  the  assessment  of  the    of  the  country-
specific  recommendations)  provides  details  on  the  definition  of  the  fiscal  stance  and  its 
components  for  fiscal  surveillance  purposes  at  this  stage,  and  explains  how  the  recommended 
fiscal adjustment for 2024 – which, in the 2023 spring economic surveillance round, is established 
as a growth rate of net nationally financed primary expenditure – has been set. 

Box 2 (Statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows) summarises 
the fundamental principles underlying the recording of these transactions. 

2 For Member States, where there are no loans from the RRF, this information is reported in Table 6, if applicable.  

2 

 
 
Box 1: 

Fiscal surveillance indicators used in the assessment of the Member States’ 
budgetary situation 

Traditionally, the fiscal stance is defined as a  measure of the  annual change in the underlying 
budgetary position of the general government. It may serve to assess the impact of fiscal policy 
on  an  economy’s  aggregate  demand,  as  well  as  the  speed  at  which  the  underlying  budgetary 
position converges towards medium-term budgetary targets. Using the same indicator to gauge 
two different concepts was appropriate under the assumption that government expenditure was 
funded  by  national  revenue  sources  and  debt-financing,  without  large  external  transfers. 
However,  in  the  presence  of  sizeable  transfers  from  the  EU  budget  (such  as  those  from  the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility or other EU grants), conventional indicators do not capture the 
additional  fiscal  impulse  provided  by  the  EU  budget,  as  the  related  expenditure  is  offset  by 
matching revenue from the EU. 

The  fiscal  stance  reported  in  Table  3  for  each  Member  State  aims  to  assess  the  economic 
impulse  stemming  from  fiscal  policies,  both  those  that  are  nationally  financed  and  those  that 
are  financed  by  the  EU  budget.  It  measures  the  change  in  primary  expenditure,  net  of  the 
incremental  impact  of  discretionary  revenue  measures,  excluding  cyclical  unemployment 
expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by Recovery and Resilience Facility 
grants and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth 
rate, in nominal terms. 

Fiscal Stancet=

(1+Pott)∙(1+πt)∙Et-1-(Et-∆RMt)
GDPt

Where  ‘Pott’  is  the  medium-term  (10-year)  average  potential  GDP  growth  rate,  ‘πt’  is  the  GDP 
G), in a given year ‘t’. 
deflator, and Et=Gt-It-Ut- one_offst

G-(pandemic-related emergency temporary measurest

The expenditure aggregate ‘Et’ comprises primary expenditure (total expenditure ‘Gt’ less interest 
G’, in 
expenditure ‘It’), net of cyclical unemployment benefits ‘Ut’ and one-off expenditure ‘one_offst
a given year ‘t’. In turn, ‘∆RMt’ stands for the incremental budgetary impact of revenue measures 
(other than one-off revenue), in a given year ‘t’. In view of the exceptional circumstances created 
by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic-related temporary emergency measures are 
also excluded from both the expenditure aggregate ‘Et’ and the incremental budgetary impact of 
revenue measures ‘∆RMt’. (3) 

In  order  to  monitor  compliance  with  the  Council  recommendations,  the  Commission  also 
examines  whether  the  projected  evolution  of  net  nationally  financed  primary  expenditure  is 
expected to be the result of continued temporary and targeted support to households and firms 
most  vulnerable  to  energy  price  hikes  and  to  people  fleeing  Ukraine.  Therefore,  Table  3  also 
presents  the  change  in  the  net  budgetary  cost (4)  of:  (i)  energy  measures  in  response  to  high 
energy prices; (ii) energy support measures targeted at vulnerable households and firms; and, (iii) 
support to persons fleeing Ukraine. (5) 

(3)  COVID-19 pandemic-related emergency measures generally aimed at addressing the public health situation and 

compensating workers and firms for income losses due to lockdown measures and supply chain disruptions. These 
measures were mostly of a temporary nature, but their impact was contingent on the development of the health situation. 

(4)  This includes the budgetary cost of energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits 

by energy producers. 

3 

 
 
 
 
 
Box 1 (cont.): 

Furthermore,  Table  3  also  monitors  the  growth  rate  of  net  nationally  financed  primary 
expenditure ‘∆NNPEt’. That aggregate is very similar to the one used for the fiscal stance, but  it 
excludes expenditure financed by the EU budget. As a rule, in a given year ‘t’, the net nationally 
financed primary expenditure aggregate ‘NNPEt’ is calculated as: 

NNPEt=Et-∆RMt=Gt-It-Ut-EUt-oneoffst

G-∆RMt 

(5)  With regard to the change in the budgetary cost of the sets of measures referred to in categories (ii) and (iii), Table 3 

reports the corresponding impact on the change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure. 

4 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Box 2: 

Statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows 

Eurostat  has issued  guidance  on  the  statistical  recording  of  flows  related  to  the  Recovery  and 
Resilience Facility (RRF). (6) In this context, please note the following fundamental principles for 
the statistical recording of RRF-related flows: 

•  RRF grants are recorded by matching the time of recording of revenue from the EU 
with the time of recording of expenditure financed by these grants. This is irrespective 
of the timing of disbursements or pre-financing. This approach is by analogy to the recording 
of  the  traditional  EU-fund  related  flows  and  it  is  often  referred  to  as  the  'principle  of 
neutrality  of  EU  flows'.  It  ensures  that  timing  differences  - leads  or  lags -  between 
disbursements and concrete spending do not have an effect on the government balance. This 
principle is well established, including in the ESA 2010 Regulation. 

•  The  government  sector  is  the  counterpart  of  the RRF  grants.  While  some  RRF  grants 
may  ultimately  be  channelled  to  non-governmental  entities  in  the  form  of  subsidies  and/or 
transfers, the RRF Regulation establishes that the financing applies at the level of payments 
from the Commission to the Member States as beneficiaries, irrespective of the further use of 
the  RRF  funds.  This  is  somewhat  different  from  the  statistical  recording  of  other  EU  fund-
related  flows,  where  the  beneficiary,  for  national  accounts  purposes,  can  be  either  the 
government or a non-governmental entity. 

•  Loans extended by the RRF to the Member States add to their government's debt. At 
the same time, borrowing taken out by the Commission to finance RRF grants is considered as 
EU debt and, therefore, it is not attributed to the Member States. 

In the Fiscal Statistical Tables, these fundamental principles underly the statistical reporting of 
RRF-related  flows  as  presented  in  Table  2  (General  government  budgetary  position),  Table  3 
(Main indicators for fiscal surveillance), Table 5 (Recovery and Resilience Facility  – Grants), and, 
where applicable, also in Table 6 (Recovery and Resilience Facility – Loans). 

(6)  ‘Guidance note on the statistical recording of the Recovery and Resilience Facility’, Eurostat, September 2021. 

5 

 
 
 
 
 
 
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30 

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66 

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89 

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128 

134 

139 

144 

150 

156 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1. 

2. 

3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

8. 

9. 

Belgium 

Bulgaria 

Czechia 

Denmark 

Germany 

Estonia 

Ireland 

Greece 

Spain 

10.  France 

11.  Croatia 

12. 

Italy 

13.  Cyprus 

14.  Latvia 

15.  Lithuania 

16.  Luxembourg 

17.  Hungary 

18.  Malta 

19.  The Netherlands 

20.  Austria 

21.  Poland 

22.  Portugal 

23.  Romania 

24.  Slovenia 

25.  Slovakia 

26.  Finland 

27.  Sweden 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
1. BELGIUM 

Table 1.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

8 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)1.41.31.42Private consumption expenditure1.41.71.53Government consumption expenditure1.60.81.14Gross fixed capital formation3.61.51.55Exports of goods and services-3.3-0.73.06Imports of goods and services-2.6-0.53.0Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand2.01.41.48- Change in inventories0.00.00.09- Net exports-0.6-0.20.010Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)0.0-0.4-0.511Employment (% change)0.80.40.612Unemployment rate (%)5.55.65.413Labour productivity (% change)0.60.80.814HICP inflation (% change)2.34.02.315GDP deflator4.12.52.116Comp. of employees (per head, % change)7.73.52.617Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)0.2-0.2-0.3#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 1.2:  General government budgetary position 

Belgium 

9 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)50.150.750.3of which:2- Taxes on production and imports12.812.712.63- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.16.416.716.54- Social contributions15.415.715.75- Other (residual)5.55.65.56RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.20.27Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)54.655.155.0of which:9- Primary expenditure52.653.052.7of which:10- Compensation of employees 12.612.712.611- Intermediate consumption4.24.14.012- Social payments17.618.118.213- Subsidies3.83.63.614- Gross fixed capital formation2.93.12.915- Other11.511.411.316- Interest expenditure2.02.22.217Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.20.218=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-4.4-4.4-4.719=1-9Primary balance-2.4-2.3-2.420Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-4.4-4.2-4.421One-offs (% of GDP)-0.2-0.10.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-4.2-4.0-4.323=22+16Structural primary balance-2.2-1.9-2.1#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 1.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Belgium 

10 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-4.2-4.0-4.32Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)0.750.75n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)4.94.8n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)2.06Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)4.07=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)2.08Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)1.0Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.40.00.010   - change-0.40.011=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-0.30.3Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)-0.70.10.3of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.00.00.114=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-0.60.10.3   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.40.40.016   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.1-0.20.117   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.1-0.10.218p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)5.74.13.7Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 1.4:  Debt developments 

Belgium 

11 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)105.2105.0106.62=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)0.9-0.11.5Contributions2:3Primary balance2.42.32.44≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-3.4-1.7-1.3of which:5- Interest expenditure2.02.22.26- Real growth effect-1.3-1.3-1.47- Inflation effect-4.0-2.6-2.28'Stock-flow' adjustment1.9-0.70.4Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 1.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Belgium 

Table 1.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Loans 

12 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.10.10.10.30.20.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.10.00.00.30.30.2#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.10.00.02Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.10.00.03Other capital expenditure0.00.00.10.00.10.10.04=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.02Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.00.02Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.00.03Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.00.04=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Source: Reporting by the Member StateOther costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 1.7:  Main indicators from the 2024 Stability Programme 

Belgium 

13 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)1.51.41.32HICP (% change)2.33.62.03General government balance (% of GDP)-4.4-4.6-3.64Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)105.2106.2106.8#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2. BULGARIA 

Table 2.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

14 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)1.91.92.92Private consumption expenditure5.42.72.93Government consumption expenditure-0.43.55.14Gross fixed capital formation3.33.53.05Exports of goods and services-1.91.53.36Imports of goods and services-6.33.24.3Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand3.62.93.28- Change in inventories-4.80.00.29- Net exports3.0-0.9-0.510Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)1.00.21.011Employment (% change)1.0-0.40.112Unemployment rate (%)4.34.34.013Labour productivity (% change)0.92.42.814HICP inflation (% change)8.63.12.715GDP deflator7.53.42.516Comp. of employees (per head, % change)13.310.49.417Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)1.21.01.5#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 2.2:  General government budgetary position 

Bulgaria 

15 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)37.937.238.6of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.814.214.63- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.36.46.44- Social contributions8.69.29.85- Other (residual)8.27.47.96RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.51.17Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.10.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)39.839.941.6of which:9- Primary expenditure39.439.441.1of which:10- Compensation of employees 10.411.211.411- Intermediate consumption4.44.34.112- Social payments12.513.513.813- Subsidies2.61.81.714- Gross fixed capital formation3.52.53.515- Other6.06.26.516- Interest expenditure0.40.50.517Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.41.118=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.8-2.919=1-9Primary balance-1.4-2.3-2.420Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.8-3.221One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.8-3.223=22+16Structural primary balance-1.7-2.3-2.7#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 2.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Bulgaria 

16 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.8-3.22Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-1-1n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)1.21.8n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)4.66Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)6.27=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)1.68Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)0.6Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.00.00.010   - change0.10.011=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-0.1-0.6Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)0.00.4-1.5of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.40.5-0.914=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.4-0.1-0.6   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.2-0.70.216   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.80.6-0.817   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure1.10.00.018p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)10.15.84.9Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 2.4:  Debt developments 

Bulgaria 

17 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)23.124.824.62=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)0.51.8-0.2Contributions2:3Primary balance1.42.32.44≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.5-0.7-0.8of which:5- Interest expenditure0.40.50.56- Real growth effect-0.4-0.4-0.77- Inflation effect-1.5-0.7-0.68'Stock-flow' adjustment0.60.2-1.9Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Bulgaria 

18 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.n.a.0.31.01.31.62Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.1.60.01.41.71.4#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.10.10.10.32Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.0.00.30.91.11.43Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.10.20.34=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.31.01.31.6#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2.6:  Main indicators from the 2024 Convergence Programme 

Bulgaria 

19 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)1.83.22.72HICP (% change)8.62.42.83General government balance (% of GDP)-1.9-3.0-3.04Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)23.125.027.3#VariablesSource: 2024 Convergence Programme 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
3. CZECHIA 

Table 3.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

20 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)-0.31.22.82Private consumption expenditure-3.22.33.83Government consumption expenditure3.51.92.24Gross fixed capital formation4.03.02.45Exports of goods and services2.82.83.76Imports of goods and services-0.71.44.4Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand0.32.22.88- Change in inventories-3.3-2.10.29- Net exports2.61.1-0.310Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-1.9-2.2-0.911Employment (% change)0.80.20.112Unemployment rate (%)2.62.82.913Labour productivity (% change)-1.11.02.714HICP inflation (% change)12.02.52.215GDP deflator8.62.62.616Comp. of employees (per head, % change)7.07.36.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)2.42.72.4#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 3.2:  General government budgetary position 

Czechia 

21 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)41.742.342.2of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.011.311.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.68.68.54- Social contributions15.916.716.85- Other (residual)6.25.65.66RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.40.50.67Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)45.444.644.1of which:9- Primary expenditure44.143.242.6of which:10- Compensation of employees 10.110.110.011- Intermediate consumption5.96.05.912- Social payments14.114.313.913- Subsidies2.81.81.714- Gross fixed capital formation5.04.94.915- Other6.26.26.216- Interest expenditure1.31.41.517Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.40.50.618=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-3.7-2.4-1.919=1-9Primary balance-2.3-1.0-0.420Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-2.9-1.5-1.521One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-2.9-1.5-1.523=22+16Structural primary balance-1.6-0.1-0.1#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 3.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Czechia 

22 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-2.9-1.5-1.52Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-0.75-0.75n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)2.20.8n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)6.06Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)-1.17=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)-7.18Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)-2.9Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level1.2-0.20.010   - change-1.40.211=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)0.80.4Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)0.92.30.0of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.10.1-0.114=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.82.20.2   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.72.10.116   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.40.30.017   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.5-0.10.018p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)10.54.24.0Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 3.4:  Debt developments 

Czechia 

23 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)44.045.245.52=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-0.21.30.3Contributions2:3Primary balance2.31.00.44≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-2.1-0.2-0.8of which:5- Interest expenditure1.31.41.56- Real growth effect0.1-0.5-1.27- Inflation effect-3.5-1.1-1.18'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.50.50.7Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 3.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Czechia 

Table 3.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Loans 

24 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.30.40.50.60.52Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.40.00.30.20.50.0#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.20.10.10.12Gross fixed capital formation0.10.10.30.30.30.50.43Other capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04=2+3Total capital expenditure0.10.10.30.30.30.50.4#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.00.00.00.00.20.12Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.10.10.13Other capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.10.1#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Source: Reporting by the Member StateOther costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 3.7:  Main indicators from the 2024 Convergence Programme 

Czechia 

25 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)-0.31.42.62HICP (% change)12.02.72.43General government balance (% of GDP)-3.7-2.3-2.14Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)44.045.546.4#VariablesSource: 2024 Convergence Programme 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4. DENMARK 

Table 4.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

26 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)1.92.61.42Private consumption expenditure1.02.11.53Government consumption expenditure0.11.72.54Gross fixed capital formation-5.0-1.91.85Exports of goods and services13.49.81.86Imports of goods and services8.68.62.4Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand-0.60.91.68- Change in inventories-1.80.00.09- Net exports4.31.7-0.210Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-0.80.10.011Employment (% change)1.5-0.2-0.312Unemployment rate (%)5.15.66.013Labour productivity (% change)0.42.81.714HICP inflation (% change)3.42.01.915GDP deflator-3.52.22.516Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.85.34.717Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)10.711.411.0#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2:  General government budgetary position 

Denmark 

27 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)50.350.049.6of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.913.813.63- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.29.729.629.64- Social contributions0.70.70.75- Other (residual)6.05.95.76RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.00.07Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)47.247.548.2of which:9- Primary expenditure46.647.047.8of which:10- Compensation of employees 14.214.314.611- Intermediate consumption8.28.58.612- Social payments14.314.414.613- Subsidies1.31.31.314- Gross fixed capital formation3.23.33.315- Other5.45.35.316- Interest expenditure0.50.50.417Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.00.018=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)3.12.41.419=1-9Primary balance3.72.91.820Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)3.62.41.421One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)3.62.41.423=22+16Structural primary balance4.12.91.8#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 4.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Denmark 

28 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)3.62.41.42Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-0.5-0.5n.a.3At or above MTO?YesYesn.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)n.a.n.a.n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)n.a.6Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)4.77=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)n.a.8Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)n.a.Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.50.10.110   - change-0.40.011=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-0.7-0.5Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)-2.5-0.3-0.5of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.10.00.014=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-2.3-0.3-0.5   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.8-0.3-0.416   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.1-0.1-0.117   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.40.00.018p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)-1.64.04.2Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 4.4:  Debt developments 

Denmark 

29 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)29.326.525.12=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-0.5-2.8-1.4Contributions2:3Primary balance-3.7-2.9-1.84≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect1.0-0.8-0.6of which:5- Interest expenditure0.50.50.46- Real growth effect-0.6-0.7-0.47- Inflation effect1.1-0.6-0.68'Stock-flow' adjustment2.11.01.0Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Denmark 

30 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.10.20.10.10.00.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.10.00.10.1n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.0.10.00.10.00.00.02Gross fixed capital formationn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.03Other capital expendituren.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.04=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.0.00.10.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5. GERMANY 

Table 5.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

31 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)-0.30.11.02Private consumption expenditure-0.70.60.93Government consumption expenditure-1.51.51.24Gross fixed capital formation-0.7-1.01.05Exports of goods and services-2.2-1.02.76Imports of goods and services-3.4-0.82.8Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand-0.80.40.98- Change in inventories0.0-0.20.09- Net exports0.6-0.10.110Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-0.8-1.2-0.811Employment (% change)0.70.40.212Unemployment rate (%)3.13.13.113Labour productivity (% change)-1.0-0.20.814HICP inflation (% change)6.02.42.015GDP deflator6.63.62.116Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.84.93.617Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)6.06.26.2#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 5.2:  General government budgetary position 

Germany 

32 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)46.146.747.4of which:2- Taxes on production and imports10.310.410.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.12.912.712.84- Social contributions17.217.618.05- Other (residual)5.85.96.16RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.17Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)48.648.348.5of which:9- Primary expenditure47.747.447.6of which:10- Compensation of employees 7.98.28.311- Intermediate consumption6.26.36.212- Social payments16.016.216.313- Subsidies1.61.00.914- Gross fixed capital formation2.72.82.915- Other13.212.912.816- Interest expenditure0.90.91.017Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.10.118=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-2.5-1.6-1.219=1-9Primary balance-1.6-0.6-0.220Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-2.1-0.9-0.721One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-2.1-0.9-0.723=22+16Structural primary balance-1.20.00.2#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 5.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Germany 

33 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-2.1-0.9-0.72Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-0.5-0.5n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)1.60.4n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)2.56Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)2.67=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)0.18Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)0.0Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level1.20.10.010   - change-1.1-0.111=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-0.3-0.3Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)0.30.8-0.1of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.00.00.014=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.30.8-0.2   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.50.6-0.116   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.0-0.1-0.117   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.20.40.118p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)7.54.32.8Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 5.4:  Debt developments 

Germany 

34 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)63.662.962.22=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-2.4-0.7-0.7Contributions2:3Primary balance1.60.60.24≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-3.1-1.3-0.9of which:5- Interest expenditure0.90.91.06- Real growth effect0.2-0.1-0.67- Inflation effect-4.1-2.2-1.38'Stock-flow' adjustment-1.00.00.0Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 5.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Germany 

35 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.10.10.10.10.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.10.00.10.30.10.1#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.10.00.00.00.00.02Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Other capital expenditure0.00.00.10.00.10.10.14=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.10.10.00.10.10.1#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 5.6:  Main indicators from the 2024 Stability Programme 

Germany 

36 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)-0.30.21.02HICP (% change)n.a.n.a.n.a.3General government balance (% of GDP)-2.5-1 ¾-14Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)63.66463 ¼#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
  
 
 
 
6. ESTONIA 

Table 6.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

37 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)-3.0-0.53.12Private consumption expenditure-1.31.72.83Government consumption expenditure0.92.01.54Gross fixed capital formation-3.4-1.74.05Exports of goods and services-6.9-2.04.76Imports of goods and services-5.2-0.24.4Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand-1.40.82.88- Change in inventories-1.60.00.09- Net exports-1.4-1.40.310Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-4.4-5.6-3.511Employment (% change)3.2-0.50.712Unemployment rate (%)6.47.46.913Labour productivity (% change)-6.00.02.414HICP inflation (% change)9.13.42.115GDP deflator7.93.82.316Comp. of employees (per head, % change)7.65.53.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-1.7-2.4-2.2#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 6.2:  General government budgetary position 

Estonia 

38 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)40.142.240.4of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.414.414.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.28.47.44- Social contributions12.512.712.65- Other (residual)6.06.86.16RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.31.10.57Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)43.545.744.7of which:9- Primary expenditure43.245.244.1of which:10- Compensation of employees 11.712.011.811- Intermediate consumption6.77.06.812- Social payments12.613.313.313- Subsidies0.70.60.614- Gross fixed capital formation6.37.06.915- Other5.15.44.916- Interest expenditure0.30.50.617Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.30.90.518=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.4-4.319=1-9Primary balance-3.0-3.0-3.720Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-1.3-0.7-2.621One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-1.3-0.7-2.623=22+16Structural primary balance-0.9-0.3-2.0#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 6.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Estonia 

39 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-1.3-0.7-2.62Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-0.75-0.75n.a.3At or above MTO?NoYesn.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)0.5n.a.n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)4.96Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)5.47=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)0.58Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)0.2Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.30.00.010   - change-0.30.011=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-0.1-0.2Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)-1.6-0.1-0.2of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.1-0.40.114=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-1.80.2-0.2   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.00.7-0.716   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-1.2-0.40.117   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.5-0.10.418p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)10.45.94.0Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 6.4:  Debt developments 

Estonia 

40 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)19.621.424.62=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)1.11.83.2Contributions2:3Primary balance3.03.03.74≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.5-0.2-0.6of which:5- Interest expenditure0.30.50.66- Real growth effect0.50.1-0.67- Inflation effect-1.4-0.7-0.58'Stock-flow' adjustment-1.5-1.00.0Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 6.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Estonia 

41 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.40.30.80.60.22Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.40.00.70.30.60.5#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.10.02Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.30.10.03Other capital expenditure0.00.00.00.20.40.40.14=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.30.70.50.1#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 6.6:  Main indicators from the 2024 Stability Programme 

Estonia 

42 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)-3.00.02.02HICP (% change)9.13.62.73General government balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.5-3.04Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)19.622.624.9#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
  
 
 
 
7. IRELAND 

Table 7.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

43 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)-3.21.23.62Private consumption expenditure3.12.33.13Government consumption expenditure1.91.10.84Gross fixed capital formation2.91.52.45Exports of goods and services-4.82.55.26Imports of goods and services0.43.04.6Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand1.61.11.58- Change in inventories1.00.00.09- Net exports-6.90.42.310Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)1.2-1.1-0.811Employment (% change)5.41.61.512Unemployment rate (%)4.34.44.413Labour productivity (% change)-8.2-0.32.114HICP inflation (% change)5.21.91.815GDP deflator3.02.61.916Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.74.44.117Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)8.06.96.8#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 7.2:  General government budgetary position 

Ireland 

44 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)24.524.724.3of which:2- Taxes on production and imports6.56.76.63- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.11.911.811.64- Social contributions4.34.44.45- Other (residual)1.81.81.86RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.07Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)22.923.423.2of which:9- Primary expenditure22.222.822.5of which:10- Compensation of employees 6.26.46.311- Intermediate consumption3.83.73.512- Social payments5.96.06.113- Subsidies0.50.50.514- Gross fixed capital formation2.32.62.715- Other3.53.63.416- Interest expenditure0.70.70.717Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.00.018=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)1.71.31.219=1-9Primary balance2.31.91.820Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)1.01.81.621One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)1.01.81.623=22+16Structural primary balance1.72.52.3#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 7.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Ireland 

45 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)1.01.81.62Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-0.5-0.5n.a.3At or above MTO?YesYesn.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)n.a.n.a.n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)n.a.6Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)7.47=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)n.a.8Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)n.a.Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.40.10.010   - change-0.3-0.111=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-0.10.3Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)-0.90.10.5of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.00.00.014=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-0.90.10.4   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.80.30.516   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.0-0.1-0.117   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.1-0.10.018p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)9.28.16.6Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 7.4:  Debt developments 

Ireland 

46 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)43.742.541.32=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-0.7-1.2-1.2Contributions2:3Primary balance-2.3-1.9-1.84≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect0.8-0.9-1.5of which:5- Interest expenditure0.70.70.76- Real growth effect1.4-0.5-1.47- Inflation effect-1.3-1.1-0.88'Stock-flow' adjustment0.81.62.2Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 7.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Ireland 

47 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.00.00.10.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Other capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 7.6:  Main indicators from the 2024 Stability Programme 

Ireland 

48 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)-3.22.63.92HICP (% change)5.22.12.13General government balance (% of GDP)1.71.61.74Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)43.741.539.5#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8. GREECE 

Table 8.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

49 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)2.02.22.32Private consumption expenditure1.81.71.73Government consumption expenditure1.80.4-0.14Gross fixed capital formation4.06.78.45Exports of goods and services3.74.24.06Imports of goods and services2.13.83.6Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand2.12.22.38- Change in inventories-0.70.00.09- Net exports0.60.00.010Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)0.31.22.011Employment (% change)1.00.90.712Unemployment rate (%)11.110.39.713Labour productivity (% change)1.01.21.614HICP inflation (% change)4.22.92.115GDP deflator4.53.02.216Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.54.32.717Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-3.6-2.9-1.8#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 8.2:  General government budgetary position 

Greece 

50 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)48.948.547.8of which:2- Taxes on production and imports17.416.816.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.610.210.24- Social contributions13.312.912.65- Other (residual)7.78.58.66RRF grants as included in the revenue projections1.01.52.07Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)50.549.648.6of which:9- Primary expenditure47.146.245.4of which:10- Compensation of employees 10.710.610.211- Intermediate consumption5.55.85.712- Social payments17.617.316.813- Subsidies1.81.20.914- Gross fixed capital formation3.94.44.315- Other7.67.07.516- Interest expenditure3.53.43.217Expenditure financed by RRF grants1.01.52.018=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-1.6-1.2-0.819=1-9Primary balance1.92.32.420Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-1.7-1.8-1.821One-offs (% of GDP)-0.2-0.10.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-1.5-1.7-1.823=22+16Structural primary balance1.91.71.4#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 8.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Greece 

51 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-1.5-1.7-1.82Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)0.50.5n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)2.02.2n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)2.66Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)1.87=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)-0.88Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)-0.3Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.00.10.110   - change0.10.011=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)0.70.2Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)-0.5-0.3-0.3of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.5-1.0-0.514=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.00.60.2   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.60.10.216   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.20.10.117   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.40.4-0.118p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)4.53.22.7Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 8.4:  Debt developments 

Greece 

52 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)161.9153.9149.32=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-10.8-8.1-4.5Contributions2:3Primary balance-1.9-2.3-2.44≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-7.1-4.6-3.5of which:5- Interest expenditure3.53.43.26- Real growth effect-3.3-3.3-3.47- Inflation effect-7.3-4.7-3.38'Stock-flow' adjustment-1.6-1.11.5Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 8.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Greece 

Table 8.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Loans 

53 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.40.91.52.02.72Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.01.30.81.50.51.42.5#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.10.00.20.40.30.22Gross fixed capital formation0.00.10.30.30.81.21.73Other capital expenditure0.00.00.10.30.30.50.74=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.10.40.71.21.72.5#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.90.91.71.01.91.42Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Other capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.10.41.01.91.9Source: Reporting by the Member StateOther costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 8.7:  Main indicators from the 2024 Stability Programme 

Greece 

54 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)2.02.52.62HICP (% change)4.22.62.03General government balance (% of GDP)-1.6-1.2-0.94Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)161.9152.7146.3#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
  
 
9. SPAIN 

Table 9.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

55 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)2.52.12.02Private consumption expenditure1.82.21.93Government consumption expenditure3.81.81.34Gross fixed capital formation0.81.92.95Exports of goods and services2.31.62.46Imports of goods and services0.31.32.4Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand1.91.91.98- Change in inventories-0.30.00.09- Net exports0.80.20.110Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)0.81.00.911Employment (% change)3.22.11.312Unemployment rate (%)12.211.611.113Labour productivity (% change)-0.70.00.614HICP inflation (% change)3.43.12.315GDP deflator5.93.32.316Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.44.02.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)3.53.73.8#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 9.2:  General government budgetary position 

Spain 

56 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)42.843.743.7of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.411.511.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.12.513.013.14- Social contributions13.513.613.65- Other (residual)5.55.75.66RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.71.31.37Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)46.446.646.5of which:9- Primary expenditure44.044.143.9of which:10- Compensation of employees 11.211.111.111- Intermediate consumption5.85.95.912- Social payments17.317.317.413- Subsidies1.51.31.214- Gross fixed capital formation3.03.13.115- Other5.35.55.216- Interest expenditure2.52.52.617Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.71.31.218=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-3.6-3.0-2.819=1-9Primary balance-1.2-0.5-0.220Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-4.1-3.6-3.321One-offs (% of GDP)0.0-0.20.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-4.1-3.4-3.323=22+16Structural primary balance-1.6-0.8-0.7#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 9.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Spain 

57 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-4.1-3.4-3.32Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)00n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)4.13.4n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)2.66Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)3.87=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)1.28Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)0.5Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.90.2-0.110   - change-0.7-0.311=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-0.4-0.4Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)0.20.0-0.1of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.2-0.30.014=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.40.3-0.1   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.30.3-0.116   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.1-0.2-0.117   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.20.20.118p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)7.24.63.7Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 9.4:  Debt developments 

Spain 

58 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)107.7105.5104.82=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-4.0-2.1-0.7Contributions2:3Primary balance1.20.50.24≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-6.2-3.0-1.8of which:5- Interest expenditure2.52.52.66- Real growth effect-2.6-2.2-2.07- Inflation effect-6.1-3.3-2.48'Stock-flow' adjustment1.20.40.9Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 9.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Spain 

Table 9.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Loans 

59 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.01.81.91.60.40.1n.a.2Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.01.61.30.80.70.6n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.30.20.20.00.0n.a.2Gross fixed capital formation0.00.10.10.10.00.0n.a.3Other capital expenditure0.01.41.61.40.40.1n.a.4=2+3Total capital expenditure0.01.51.71.50.40.1n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.0.01.02.21.92Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.0.00.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Source: Reporting by the Member StateOther costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 9.7:  Main indicators from the 2024 Stability Programme 

Spain 

60 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)2.52.01.92HICP (% change)n.a.n.a.n.a.3General government balance (% of GDP)-3.6-3.0-2.54Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)107.7105.5104.1#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
  
 
10. FRANCE 

Table 10.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

61 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)0.70.71.32Private consumption expenditure0.61.21.43Government consumption expenditure0.50.90.84Gross fixed capital formation0.8-0.51.15Exports of goods and services1.22.43.36Imports of goods and services-0.41.83.2Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand0.60.71.28- Change in inventories-0.5-0.20.19- Net exports0.60.20.010Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-0.1-0.4-0.211Employment (% change)1.10.20.312Unemployment rate (%)7.37.77.813Labour productivity (% change)-0.40.50.914HICP inflation (% change)5.72.52.015GDP deflator5.52.82.016Comp. of employees (per head, % change)4.13.02.417Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-2.0-1.2-1.2#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 10.2:  General government budgetary position 

France 

62 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)51.951.952.0of which:2- Taxes on production and imports15.815.915.93- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.12.712.813.24- Social contributions16.516.416.35- Other (residual)6.86.66.66RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.20.20.17Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)57.357.257.0of which:9- Primary expenditure55.655.154.7of which:10- Compensation of employees 12.312.312.411- Intermediate consumption5.75.55.512- Social payments19.019.319.213- Subsidies2.52.02.014- Gross fixed capital formation4.34.34.215- Other11.811.611.516- Interest expenditure1.72.02.317Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.20.20.118=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-5.5-5.3-5.019=1-9Primary balance-3.8-3.3-2.720Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-5.4-5.0-4.921One-offs (% of GDP)-0.10.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-5.4-5.0-4.923=22+16Structural primary balance-3.7-3.0-2.5#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 10.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

France 

63 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-5.4-5.0-4.92Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-0.4-0.4n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)5.04.6n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)2.36Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)1.87=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)-0.58Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)-0.3Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.90.20.010   - change-0.6-0.211=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)0.40.1Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)0.51.10.3of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.20.00.014=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.31.00.3   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.31.10.116   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.0-0.10.117   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.10.00.118p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)6.43.72.9Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 10.4:  Debt developments 

France 

64 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)110.6112.4113.82=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-1.31.81.4Contributions2:3Primary balance3.83.32.74≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-4.8-1.7-1.3of which:5- Interest expenditure1.72.02.36- Real growth effect-0.7-0.8-1.47- Inflation effect-5.8-3.0-2.28'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.20.20.0Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 10.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

France 

65 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.50.40.20.20.10.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.20.30.40.30.10.2#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.10.20.10.00.00.00.02Gross fixed capital formation0.00.10.10.10.00.00.03Other capital expenditure0.00.20.20.10.10.10.04=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.30.30.20.20.10.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 10.6:  Main indicators from the 2024 Stability Programme 

France 

66 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)0.91.01.42HICP (% change)n.a.n.a.n.a.3General government balance (% of GDP)-5.5-5.1-4.14Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)110.6112.3113.1#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
  
 
 
 
 
 
11. CROATIA 

Table 11.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

67 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)3.13.32.92Private consumption expenditure3.04.32.73Government consumption expenditure6.63.12.64Gross fixed capital formation4.23.13.45Exports of goods and services-2.92.63.16Imports of goods and services-5.33.42.9Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand4.03.82.88- Change in inventories-2.60.00.09- Net exports1.7-0.50.110Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)2.52.21.811Employment (% change)2.72.01.312Unemployment rate (%)6.15.85.613Labour productivity (% change)0.41.31.614HICP inflation (% change)8.43.52.215GDP deflator8.55.52.216Comp. of employees (per head, % change)11.39.44.717Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)4.13.43.5#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 11.2:  General government budgetary position 

Croatia 

68 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)46.745.646.5of which:2- Taxes on production and imports19.619.819.73- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.57.57.54- Social contributions10.911.111.25- Other (residual)8.67.38.16RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.71.32.17Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)47.448.349.1of which:9- Primary expenditure45.746.647.5of which:10- Compensation of employees 11.513.013.011- Intermediate consumption7.87.77.912- Social payments12.213.013.313- Subsidies2.01.61.314- Gross fixed capital formation5.45.55.615- Other6.85.96.516- Interest expenditure1.71.61.617Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.71.21.918=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-0.7-2.6-2.619=1-9Primary balance1.0-1.0-1.020Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-1.8-3.6-3.421One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-1.8-3.6-3.423=22+16Structural primary balance-0.1-2.0-1.8#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 11.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Croatia 

69 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-1.8-3.6-3.42Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-1-1n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)0.82.6n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)5.16Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)14.47=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)9.38Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)3.6Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level1.90.60.010   - change-1.3-0.611=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-3.5-0.4Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)-3.0-1.2-0.7of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-1.01.0-1.014=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-2.0-2.20.2   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.3-2.00.116   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-1.4-0.90.417   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.60.8-0.318p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)11.68.75.2Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 11.4:  Debt developments 

Croatia 

70 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)63.059.559.12=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-4.8-3.5-0.5Contributions2:3Primary balance-1.01.01.04≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-5.3-3.5-1.2of which:5- Interest expenditure1.71.61.66- Real growth effect-1.9-1.9-1.67- Inflation effect-5.2-3.2-1.28'Stock-flow' adjustment1.7-0.9-0.2Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 11.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Croatia 

Table 11.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Loans 

71 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.30.71.21.9n.a.2Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.01.42.00.90.91.1n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.10.30.3n.a.2Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.20.40.8n.a.3Other capital expenditure0.00.00.20.40.50.8n.a.4=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.20.50.91.5n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.0n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.0n.a.3Financial transactions0.00.00.00.10.10.1n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.00.00.00.91.0n.a.2Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.0n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.1n.a.2Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.10.10.7n.a.3Other capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.5n.a.4=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.10.31.2n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.0n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.0n.a.3Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.0n.a.Source: Reporting by the Member StateOther costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
12. ITALY 

Table 12.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

72 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)0.90.91.12Private consumption expenditure1.20.21.53Government consumption expenditure1.20.50.84Gross fixed capital formation4.71.30.75Exports of goods and services0.22.43.26Imports of goods and services-0.50.93.7Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand2.00.51.18- Change in inventories-1.3-0.10.09- Net exports0.30.5-0.110Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)1.11.01.011Employment (% change)1.80.80.412Unemployment rate (%)7.77.57.313Labour productivity (% change)-0.90.20.714HICP inflation (% change)5.91.61.915GDP deflator5.32.21.816Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.43.82.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)1.11.81.9#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 12.2:  General government budgetary position 

Italy 

73 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)47.847.147.0of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.114.114.13- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.15.415.415.24- Social contributions12.912.812.85- Other (residual)5.44.84.86RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.80.60.77Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)55.251.551.7of which:9- Primary expenditure51.447.647.5of which:10- Compensation of employees 8.99.19.011- Intermediate consumption5.95.96.012- Social payments20.420.820.613- Subsidies2.52.02.014- Gross fixed capital formation3.23.23.515- Other10.66.56.416- Interest expenditure3.84.04.117Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.80.60.718=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-7.4-4.4-4.719=1-9Primary balance-3.6-0.5-0.520Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-8.0-5.0-5.221One-offs (% of GDP)0.30.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-8.3-5.0-5.323=22+16Structural primary balance-4.5-1.1-1.1#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 12.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Italy 

74 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-8.3-5.0-5.32Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)0.250.25n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)8.55.3n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)1.36Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)-2.87=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)-4.18Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)-2.0Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level1.00.00.010   - change-1.00.011=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)1.70.0Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)-0.33.1-0.1of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.30.4-0.114=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.12.70.0   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure1.0-0.40.216   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.10.0-0.417   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.83.20.218p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)5.92.92.5Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 12.4:  Debt developments 

Italy 

75 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)137.3138.6141.72=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-3.21.33.1Contributions2:3Primary balance3.60.50.54≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-4.4-0.20.2of which:5- Interest expenditure3.84.04.16- Real growth effect-1.2-1.2-1.57- Inflation effect-7.0-2.9-2.48'Stock-flow' adjustment-2.31.12.3Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 12.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Italy 

Table 12.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Loans 

76 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3.42Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3.4#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.92Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.93Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.1.64=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2.5#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.02Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.03Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.0Note:Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member StateThe Stability Programme submitted by Italy did not include annual figures on revenue from and expenditure financed by Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) grants. The table shows the data as reported in the Stability Programme, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0).Table 5b. RRF - LOANS#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5.82Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.0#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.22Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3.43Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.1.64=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5.1#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.02Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.03Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.2Note:Source: Reporting by the Member StateOther costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)The Stability Programme submitted by Italy did not include annual figures on cash flow from and expenditure financed by Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) loans. The table shows the data as reported in the Stability Programme, rounded to one decimal place (small figures may therefore be shown as 0.0). 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
Table 12.7:  Main indicators from 2024 Stability Programme 

Italy 

77 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)0.91.01.22HICP (% change)5.91.21.83General government balance (% of GDP)-7.2-4.3-3.74Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)137.3137.8138.9#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
  
 
 
 
13. CYPRUS 

Table 13.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

78 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)2.52.82.92Private consumption expenditure4.32.21.93Government consumption expenditure1.62.51.44Gross fixed capital formation19.53.65.15Exports of goods and services-1.53.23.36Imports of goods and services5.13.22.9Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand6.82.62.58- Change in inventories1.90.20.09- Net exports-6.30.00.310Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)2.61.60.911Employment (% change)1.51.41.512Unemployment rate (%)6.15.65.413Labour productivity (% change)1.01.41.414HICP inflation (% change)3.92.42.115GDP deflator4.73.72.416Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.63.91.517Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-11.5-10.6-10.2#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 13.2:  General government budgetary position 

Cyprus 

79 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)43.343.343.2of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.914.614.63- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.11.010.910.84- Social contributions12.012.212.05- Other (residual)5.55.75.96RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.30.71.17Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)40.240.440.3of which:9- Primary expenditure38.839.039.1of which:10- Compensation of employees 12.012.212.311- Intermediate consumption4.04.03.912- Social payments11.811.611.713- Subsidies0.50.60.614- Gross fixed capital formation3.53.63.715- Other6.97.06.916- Interest expenditure1.41.41.317Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.30.71.118=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)3.12.92.919=1-9Primary balance4.54.34.220Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)1.82.12.421One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)1.82.12.423=22+16Structural primary balance3.23.53.7#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 13.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Cyprus 

80 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)1.82.12.42Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)00n.a.3At or above MTO?YesYesn.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)n.a.n.a.n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)n.a.6Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)7.07=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)n.a.8Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)n.a.Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.40.30.010   - change-0.2-0.311=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-0.10.3Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)-1.00.00.3of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.2-0.1-0.314=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-1.10.10.6   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.20.00.416   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-1.20.10.217   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.20.00.118p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)8.57.35.7Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 13.4:  Debt developments 

Cyprus 

81 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)77.370.665.42=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-8.3-6.7-5.1Contributions2:3Primary balance-4.5-4.3-4.24≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-4.3-3.3-2.2of which:5- Interest expenditure1.41.41.36- Real growth effect-2.0-2.0-1.97- Inflation effect-3.8-2.7-1.68'Stock-flow' adjustment0.61.01.3Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 13.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Cyprus 

Table 13.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Loans 

82 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.10.40.70.90.92Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.50.30.00.80.80.7#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.20.20.22Gross fixed capital formation0.10.10.10.10.30.30.33Other capital expenditure0.00.00.00.10.30.40.34=2+3Total capital expenditure0.10.10.10.20.50.70.6#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.10.00.00.20.3n.a.2Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.10.02Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.10.33Other capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.10.3#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Source: Reporting by the Member StateOther costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
Table 13.7:  Main indicators from 2024 Stability Programme 

Cyprus 

83 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)2.52.93.12HICP (% change)3.92.52.03General government balance (% of GDP)3.12.92.84Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)77.470.665.5#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
  
 
 
 
14. LATVIA 

Table 14.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

84 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)-0.31.72.62Private consumption expenditure-1.31.72.03Government consumption expenditure7.02.63.34Gross fixed capital formation8.22.83.55Exports of goods and services-5.9-0.43.16Imports of goods and services-2.80.43.1Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand2.42.22.78- Change in inventories-0.50.00.09- Net exports-2.1-0.5-0.110Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-0.9-1.1-0.611Employment (% change)0.10.30.312Unemployment rate (%)6.56.56.313Labour productivity (% change)-0.41.42.414HICP inflation (% change)9.11.62.015GDP deflator5.44.22.516Comp. of employees (per head, % change)12.65.74.717Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-2.6-0.30.6#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 14.2:  General government budgetary position 

Latvia 

85 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)38.740.441.0of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.813.613.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.88.28.24- Social contributions10.610.811.15- Other (residual)6.67.88.36RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.41.61.87Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)41.043.243.9of which:9- Primary expenditure40.342.242.7of which:10- Compensation of employees 11.612.212.311- Intermediate consumption6.36.56.812- Social payments11.912.112.313- Subsidies1.41.21.214- Gross fixed capital formation4.25.56.115- Other4.84.74.016- Interest expenditure0.61.01.217Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.41.61.818=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.8-2.919=1-9Primary balance-1.6-1.8-1.820Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.4-2.721One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.4-2.723=22+16Structural primary balance-1.3-1.4-1.5#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 14.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Latvia 

86 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.4-2.72Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-1-1n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)0.91.4n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)3.06Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)4.97=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)1.98Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)0.7Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level1.00.00.010   - change-1.00.011=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-0.5-0.4Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)-0.5-0.9-1.5of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.4-1.4-1.014=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-0.10.5-0.4   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.10.4-0.516   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.1-0.10.017   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.80.20.018p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)7.66.34.3Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 14.4:  Debt developments 

Latvia 

87 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)43.644.546.32=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)1.81.01.8Contributions2:3Primary balance1.61.81.84≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.4-1.4-1.0of which:5- Interest expenditure0.61.01.26- Real growth effect0.1-0.7-1.17- Inflation effect-2.1-1.7-1.08'Stock-flow' adjustment1.60.61.0Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
Table 14.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Latvia 

88 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.00.41.41.71.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.70.50.00.90.61.9#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.60.60.32Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.30.91.00.73Other capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.30.91.00.7#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 14.6:  Main indicators from the 2024 Stability Programme 

Latvia 

89 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)-0.31.42.92HICP (% change)8.91.62.53General government balance (% of GDP)-2.3-2.9-2.24Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)43.445.246.3#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
15. LITHUANIA 

Table 15.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

90 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)-0.32.02.92Private consumption expenditure-1.03.24.53Government consumption expenditure0.20.7-0.44Gross fixed capital formation10.63.84.45Exports of goods and services-3.32.24.86Imports of goods and services-4.93.56.0Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand1.72.93.68- Change in inventories-3.50.00.09- Net exports1.5-0.8-0.710Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-2.2-2.7-2.111Employment (% change)1.50.2-0.212Unemployment rate (%)6.97.06.913Labour productivity (% change)-1.81.83.214HICP inflation (% change)8.71.91.815GDP deflator7.12.21.916Comp. of employees (per head, % change)10.38.26.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)2.01.81.4#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 15.2:  General government budgetary position 

Lithuania 

91 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)37.438.538.5of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.311.511.63- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.710.710.54- Social contributions10.811.311.65- Other (residual)4.65.04.96RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.30.81.07Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)38.240.340.7of which:9- Primary expenditure37.639.639.8of which:10- Compensation of employees 10.711.111.311- Intermediate consumption4.14.44.312- Social payments12.713.614.613- Subsidies0.70.30.314- Gross fixed capital formation4.24.44.015- Other5.25.85.316- Interest expenditure0.60.70.917Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.30.81.018=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-0.8-1.8-2.219=1-9Primary balance-0.2-1.1-1.320Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)0.1-0.8-1.321One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)0.1-0.8-1.423=22+16Structural primary balance0.70.0-0.5#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 15.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Lithuania 

92 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)0.1-0.8-1.42Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-1-1n.a.3At or above MTO?YesYesn.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)n.a.n.a.n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)n.a.6Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)8.27=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)n.a.8Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)n.a.Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.30.00.010   - change-0.30.011=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-1.3-0.3Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)-0.6-1.6-0.4of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.1-0.6-0.114=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-0.5-1.0-0.3   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.2-1.1-0.916   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.80.20.517   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.1-0.10.218p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)10.55.34.7Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 15.4:  Debt developments 

Lithuania 

93 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)38.338.941.62=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)0.20.62.7Contributions2:3Primary balance0.21.11.34≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.8-0.9-0.9of which:5- Interest expenditure0.60.70.96- Real growth effect0.1-0.7-1.17- Inflation effect-2.5-0.8-0.78'Stock-flow' adjustment1.80.42.3Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 15.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Lithuania 

Table 15.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Loans 

94 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.10.30.81.00.42Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.50.00.80.30.70.8#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.0.00.00.10.20.20.12Gross fixed capital formationn.a.0.00.10.20.60.80.33Other capital expendituren.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.04=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.0.00.10.20.60.80.3#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.0.20.50.40.92Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.50.50.22Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.10.20.43Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.04=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.10.20.4#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Source: Reporting by the Member StateOther costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
16. LUXEMBOURG 

Table 16.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

95 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)-1.11.42.32Private consumption expenditure4.02.92.43Government consumption expenditure2.53.02.14Gross fixed capital formation-1.00.13.35Exports of goods and services-1.42.73.36Imports of goods and services-0.13.23.6Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand1.51.51.88- Change in inventories0.00.00.09- Net exports-2.6-0.10.510Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-2.7-3.1-2.611Employment (% change)2.21.41.912Unemployment rate (%)5.25.85.713Labour productivity (% change)-3.30.00.414HICP inflation (% change)2.92.32.015GDP deflator3.44.02.516Comp. of employees (per head, % change)7.33.62.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-4.7-5.6-5.6#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 16.2:  General government budgetary position 

Luxembourg 

96 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)46.846.646.8of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.111.111.03- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.18.018.118.24- Social contributions12.912.512.85- Other (residual)4.84.94.86RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.10.17Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)48.148.348.7of which:9- Primary expenditure47.847.948.3of which:10- Compensation of employees 11.211.411.611- Intermediate consumption4.94.94.812- Social payments16.516.616.713- Subsidies1.61.41.114- Gross fixed capital formation4.74.64.915- Other8.99.19.216- Interest expenditure0.30.40.417Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.10.118=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-1.3-1.7-1.919=1-9Primary balance-0.9-1.3-1.520Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)0.0-0.3-0.721One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)0.0-0.3-0.723=22+16Structural primary balance0.30.1-0.3#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 16.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Luxembourg 

97 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)0.0-0.3-0.72Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)00n.a.3At or above MTO?YesNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)n.a.0.3n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)4.86Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)6.87=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)2.08Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)0.9Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.90.50.310   - change-0.5-0.211=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-0.8-0.3Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)-3.2-0.4-0.1of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.0-0.10.014=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-3.2-0.3-0.1   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-2.7-0.40.316   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.40.2-0.317   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.1-0.1-0.118p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)5.66.14.6Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 16.4:  Debt developments 

Luxembourg 

98 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)25.727.128.52=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)0.91.41.4Contributions2:3Primary balance0.91.31.54≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.3-0.9-0.8of which:5- Interest expenditure0.30.40.46- Real growth effect0.3-0.3-0.67- Inflation effect-0.8-1.0-0.78'Stock-flow' adjustment0.21.00.7Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 16.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Luxembourg 

99 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Other capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 16.6:  Main indicators from 2024 Stability Programme 

Luxembourg 

100 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)-1.02.03.02HICP (% change)2.91.93.23General government balance (% of GDP)-0.7-1.2-1.24Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)25.226.526.9#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
  
 
 
 
 
17. HUNGARY 

Table 17.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

101 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)-0.92.43.52Private consumption expenditure-2.04.14.13Government consumption expenditure1.20.81.54Gross fixed capital formation-7.41.78.25Exports of goods and services0.93.05.36Imports of goods and services-4.33.56.9Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand-2.82.64.48- Change in inventories-3.00.00.09- Net exports4.9-0.2-0.910Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-1.4-1.2-0.211Employment (% change)0.20.10.712Unemployment rate (%)4.14.54.013Labour productivity (% change)-1.12.32.814HICP inflation (% change)17.04.13.715GDP deflator14.85.33.816Comp. of employees (per head, % change)14.011.77.717Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)0.41.80.5#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 17.2:  General government budgetary position 

Hungary 

102 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)42.442.942.4of which:2- Taxes on production and imports17.517.516.93- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.57.77.54- Social contributions10.010.410.55- Other (residual)7.57.47.66RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.30.80.87Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)49.148.346.9of which:9- Primary expenditure44.443.442.7of which:10- Compensation of employees 9.710.110.211- Intermediate consumption8.18.08.112- Social payments10.810.810.613- Subsidies2.72.11.414- Gross fixed capital formation5.14.64.715- Other7.97.77.716- Interest expenditure4.74.94.117Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.30.80.818=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-6.7-5.4-4.519=1-9Primary balance-2.0-0.5-0.420Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-6.0-4.9-4.421One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-6.0-4.9-4.423=22+16Structural primary balance-1.30.0-0.2#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 17.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Hungary 

103 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-6.0-4.9-4.42Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-1-1n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)5.03.9n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)4.46Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)3.67=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)-0.88Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)-0.3Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level1.60.90.410   - change-0.6-0.511=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)1.2-0.4Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)4.71.0-0.4of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.9-0.9-0.514=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure3.91.90.0   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure1.71.0-0.216   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.00.60.317   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure2.30.40.018p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)18.18.36.6Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 17.4:  Debt developments 

Hungary 

104 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)73.574.373.82=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-0.50.8-0.4Contributions2:3Primary balance2.00.50.44≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-4.3-0.3-0.9of which:5- Interest expenditure4.74.94.16- Real growth effect0.6-1.6-2.47- Inflation effect-9.6-3.6-2.68'Stock-flow' adjustment1.70.70.2Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 17.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Hungary 

Table 17.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Loans 

105 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.20.30.80.90.62Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.10.12Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.20.30.70.80.53Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.00.00.00.40.40.32Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.40.40.33Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Source: Reporting by the Member StateOther costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 17.7:  Main indicators from the 2024 Convergence Programme 

Hungary 

106 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)-0.92.54.12HICP (% change)17.04.23.63General government balance (% of GDP)-6.7-4.5-3.74Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)73.573.272.1#VariablesSource: 2024 Convergence Programme 
 
  
 
 
 
 
18. MALTA 

Table 18.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

107 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)5.64.64.32Private consumption expenditure7.74.34.03Government consumption expenditure3.33.02.74Gross fixed capital formation-22.24.54.55Exports of goods and services8.74.33.86Imports of goods and services4.74.03.4Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand-1.73.23.08- Change in inventories0.00.10.09- Net exports7.31.31.310Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)0.0-0.3-0.911Employment (% change)6.54.14.012Unemployment rate (%)3.13.02.913Labour productivity (% change)-0.90.40.314HICP inflation (% change)5.62.82.315GDP deflator5.33.62.516Comp. of employees (per head, % change)1.52.73.217Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)5.84.34.5#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 18.2:  General government budgetary position 

Malta 

108 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)33.433.533.4of which:2- Taxes on production and imports10.010.110.03- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.12.512.612.64- Social contributions5.55.65.75- Other (residual)5.45.15.16RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.20.40.47Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)38.437.937.3of which:9- Primary expenditure37.236.636.0of which:10- Compensation of employees 10.110.09.911- Intermediate consumption7.87.67.412- Social payments7.27.37.313- Subsidies3.83.12.714- Gross fixed capital formation3.53.73.915- Other4.95.04.816- Interest expenditure1.11.31.317Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.20.40.418=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-4.9-4.3-3.919=1-9Primary balance-3.8-3.1-2.620Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-4.9-4.2-3.521One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-4.9-4.2-3.523=22+16Structural primary balance-3.8-2.9-2.1#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 18.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Malta 

109 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-4.9-4.2-3.52Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)00n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)4.94.2n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)5.96Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)5.57=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)-0.48Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)-0.1Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level1.72.01.010   - change0.3-1.011=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)1.5-0.1Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)0.61.30.8of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.00.00.014=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.61.30.8   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure1.61.50.916   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.1-0.2-0.217   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.9-0.10.118p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)11.29.27.8Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 18.4:  Debt developments 

Malta 

110 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)50.452.052.62=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-1.21.60.6Contributions2:3Primary balance3.83.12.64≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-4.0-2.5-2.0of which:5- Interest expenditure1.11.31.36- Real growth effect-2.6-2.1-2.17- Inflation effect-2.4-1.7-1.28'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.91.20.1Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 18.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Malta 

111 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.10.30.40.30.40.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.30.00.30.40.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Gross fixed capital formation0.00.10.30.40.30.40.13Other capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.10.30.40.30.40.1#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State 
  
 
19. THE NETHERLANDS 

Table 19.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

112 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)0.10.81.52Private consumption expenditure0.41.61.73Government consumption expenditure3.12.62.04Gross fixed capital formation1.8-2.11.25Exports of goods and services-1.3-0.12.46Imports of goods and services-0.8-0.12.8Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand1.30.91.58- Change in inventories-0.7-0.10.09- Net exports-0.6-0.1-0.110Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)0.0-1.1-1.311Employment (% change)1.50.60.312Unemployment rate (%)3.63.94.013Labour productivity (% change)-1.40.11.214HICP inflation (% change)4.12.52.015GDP deflator7.83.72.316Comp. of employees (per head, % change)6.25.93.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)10.110.210.2#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 19.2:  General government budgetary position 

The Netherlands 

113 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)43.142.742.9of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.111.011.13- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.15.114.914.64- Social contributions12.612.613.05- Other (residual)4.44.24.26RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.17Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)43.544.745.1of which:9- Primary expenditure42.844.044.3of which:10- Compensation of employees 8.38.68.511- Intermediate consumption6.66.56.412- Social payments10.310.711.013- Subsidies1.71.71.814- Gross fixed capital formation3.13.23.215- Other12.813.413.416- Interest expenditure0.60.70.717Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.10.118=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-0.3-2.0-2.119=1-9Primary balance0.3-1.3-1.420Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-0.3-1.3-1.421One-offs (% of GDP)0.50.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-0.8-1.3-1.423=22+16Structural primary balance-0.2-0.6-0.7#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 19.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

The Netherlands 

114 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-0.8-1.3-1.42Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-0.75-0.75n.a.3At or above MTO?YesNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)n.a.0.6n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)3.56Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)6.67=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)3.18Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)1.3Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level1.00.10.010   - change-0.9-0.111=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-1.4-0.2Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)0.8-0.4-0.1of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.00.00.014=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.8-0.5-0.1   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.9-0.4-0.216   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.10.0-0.117   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.20.00.218p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)9.75.54.0Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 19.4:  Debt developments 

The Netherlands 

115 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)46.547.148.42=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-3.70.61.3Contributions2:3Primary balance-0.31.31.44≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-3.0-1.3-1.0of which:5- Interest expenditure0.60.70.76- Real growth effect0.0-0.3-0.77- Inflation effect-3.6-1.7-1.08'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.30.60.9Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 19.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

The Netherlands 

116 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.n.a.0.10.10.10.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.0.10.10.10.1#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.10.10.10.02Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.03Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.04=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 19.6:  Main indicators from the 2024 Stability Programme 

The Netherlands 

117 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)0.11.11.62HICP (% change)4.12.72.53General government balance (% of GDP)-0.3-2.0-2.14Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)46.546.848.1#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
  
 
20. AUSTRIA 

Table 20.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

118 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)-0.80.31.62Private consumption expenditure-0.31.32.03Government consumption expenditure-0.40.10.64Gross fixed capital formation-2.4-2.22.35Exports of goods and services-0.21.22.46Imports of goods and services-1.81.02.7Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand-0.80.11.78- Change in inventories-0.90.00.09- Net exports1.00.1-0.110Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-0.5-1.0-0.311Employment (% change)0.90.40.712Unemployment rate (%)5.15.35.113Labour productivity (% change)-1.8-0.10.914HICP inflation (% change)7.73.62.815GDP deflator7.64.12.616Comp. of employees (per head, % change)7.87.13.217Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)1.82.01.8#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 20.2:  General government budgetary position 

Austria 

119 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)49.549.849.7of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.713.713.73- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.14.013.913.74- Social contributions15.215.815.95- Other (residual)6.66.56.46RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.20.10.07Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)52.152.952.6of which:9- Primary expenditure51.051.551.2of which:10- Compensation of employees 10.611.111.111- Intermediate consumption6.96.76.512- Social payments18.219.119.213- Subsidies2.31.81.714- Gross fixed capital formation3.53.53.415- Other9.39.49.316- Interest expenditure1.21.41.417Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.20.10.018=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-2.7-3.1-2.919=1-9Primary balance-1.5-1.7-1.420Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-2.4-2.5-2.721One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-2.4-2.5-2.723=22+16Structural primary balance-1.2-1.1-1.3#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 20.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Austria 

120 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-2.4-2.5-2.72Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-0.5-0.5n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)1.92.0n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)4.66Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)5.97=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)1.38Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)0.6Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level1.40.40.110   - change-1.0-0.311=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-1.4-0.1Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)0.9-0.40.3of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.00.00.014=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.9-0.40.3   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.5-0.40.116   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.10.20.017   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.5-0.10.118p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)8.75.13.6Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 20.4:  Debt developments 

Austria 

121 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)77.877.777.82=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-0.6-0.10.1Contributions2:3Primary balance1.51.71.44≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-3.8-1.9-1.7of which:5- Interest expenditure1.21.41.46- Real growth effect0.6-0.2-1.27- Inflation effect-5.6-3.1-1.98'Stock-flow' adjustment1.60.20.4Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 20.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Austria 

122 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.n.a.0.20.10.10.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.0.20.30.10.1#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.02Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.03Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.10.10.00.04=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.10.10.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 20.6:  Main indicators from the 2024 Stability Programme 

Austria 

123 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)-0.80.21.82HICP1 (% change)7.83.82.73General government balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.9-2.84Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)77.877.577.4Notes:#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme1 Austria reported CPI instead of HICP. 
  
 
21. POLAND 

Table 21.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

124 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)0.22.83.42Private consumption expenditure-1.03.03.53Government consumption expenditure2.85.72.34Gross fixed capital formation13.13.56.05Exports of goods and services3.41.73.56Imports of goods and services-2.03.04.2Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand2.13.43.58- Change in inventories-5.30.00.09- Net exports3.3-0.6-0.110Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-1.1-1.2-0.611Employment (% change)0.1-0.10.112Unemployment rate (%)2.83.02.913Labour productivity (% change)0.02.83.314HICP inflation (% change)10.94.34.315GDP deflator10.74.54.216Comp. of employees (per head, % change)13.410.17.117Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)2.41.91.8#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 21.2:  General government budgetary position 

Poland 

125 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)41.644.043.9of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.115.014.73- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.48.08.24- Social contributions14.214.614.55- Other (residual)5.86.56.56RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.11.01.37Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)46.749.448.5of which:9- Primary expenditure44.747.246.1of which:10- Compensation of employees 10.110.610.611- Intermediate consumption6.46.56.412- Social payments15.617.317.413- Subsidies2.11.50.414- Gross fixed capital formation5.05.15.415- Other5.46.36.016- Interest expenditure2.12.22.417Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.11.01.318=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-5.1-5.4-4.619=1-9Primary balance-3.0-3.2-2.220Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-4.5-4.8-4.321One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-4.5-4.8-4.323=22+16Structural primary balance-2.5-2.6-1.9#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 21.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Poland 

126 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-4.5-4.8-4.32Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-1-1n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)3.53.8n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)7.86Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)12.87=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)5.08Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)2.0Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.60.50.010   - change-0.2-0.511=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-2.20.4Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)-0.8-2.40.7of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.5-0.4-0.214=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-0.4-2.00.8   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.0-1.80.916   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.7-0.2-0.417   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.30.00.318p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)14.57.97.3Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 21.4:  Debt developments 

Poland 

127 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)49.653.757.72=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)0.44.14.0Contributions2:3Primary balance3.03.22.24≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-2.7-1.2-1.4of which:5- Interest expenditure2.12.22.46- Real growth effect-0.1-1.3-1.77- Inflation effect-4.8-2.1-2.18'Stock-flow' adjustment0.12.13.3Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
Table 21.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Poland 

Table 21.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Loans 

128 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.40.60.22Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.60.70.3#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.30.50.72Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.50.71.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Source: Reporting by the Member StateOther costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
22. PORTUGAL 

Table 22.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

129 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)2.31.71.92Private consumption expenditure1.71.81.93Government consumption expenditure1.02.11.24Gross fixed capital formation2.63.93.75Exports of goods and services4.12.82.56Imports of goods and services2.24.13.2Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand1.82.22.18- Change in inventories-0.30.00.09- Net exports0.9-0.6-0.310Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)1.40.90.611Employment (% change)0.91.00.912Unemployment rate (%)6.56.56.413Labour productivity (% change)1.40.70.914HICP inflation (% change)5.32.31.915GDP deflator7.12.62.116Comp. of employees (per head, % change)8.13.32.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)2.62.11.9#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 22.2:  General government budgetary position 

Portugal 

130 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)43.543.844.0of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.514.714.73- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.710.310.34- Social contributions12.312.412.35- Other (residual)6.06.46.76RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.61.31.87Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)42.343.443.5of which:9- Primary expenditure40.241.241.3of which:10- Compensation of employees 10.510.610.511- Intermediate consumption5.35.45.512- Social payments15.716.116.013- Subsidies0.80.80.614- Gross fixed capital formation2.53.13.415- Other5.45.25.216- Interest expenditure2.22.22.217Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.61.31.818=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)1.20.40.519=1-9Primary balance3.42.62.720Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)0.50.00.221One-offs (% of GDP)-0.5-0.10.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)0.90.00.223=22+16Structural primary balance3.12.22.4#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
  
 
 
 
Table 22.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Portugal 

131 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)0.90.00.22Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-0.5-0.5n.a.3At or above MTO?YesYesn.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)n.a.n.a.n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)1.86Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)8.37=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)6.58Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)2.4Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.90.60.510   - change-0.30.011=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-1.7-0.1Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)1.1-1.8-0.4of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.3-0.4-0.414=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure1.4-1.4-0.1   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.9-1.10.016   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.1-0.3-0.117   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.50.00.018p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)9.14.53.9Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 22.4:  Debt developments 

Portugal 

132 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)99.195.691.52=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-13.3-3.5-4.2Contributions2:3Primary balance-3.4-2.6-2.74≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-7.5-1.9-1.5of which:5- Interest expenditure2.22.22.26- Real growth effect-2.3-1.6-1.77- Inflation effect-7.3-2.5-2.08'Stock-flow' adjustment-2.31.10.1Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 22.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Portugal 

Table 22.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Loans 

133 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.30.61.31.81.72Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.80.21.41.30.91.3#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.10.40.50.52Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.10.10.60.90.93Other capital expenditure0.00.00.10.30.40.40.34=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.20.51.01.31.2#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.20.30.30.60.30.62Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.10.30.63Other capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.20.24=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.50.8#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.10.00.10.20.1Source: Reporting by the Member StateOther costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 22.7:  Main indicators from the 2024 Stability Programme 

Portugal 

134 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)2.31.51.92HICP (% change)5.32.52.13General government balance (% of GDP)1.20.30.34Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)99.195.791.4#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
23. ROMANIA 

Table 23.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

135 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)2.23.33.12Private consumption expenditure2.83.63.43Government consumption expenditure6.16.81.64Gross fixed capital formation14.46.86.15Exports of goods and services-1.41.83.26Imports of goods and services-1.44.24.3Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand6.45.24.18- Change in inventories-4.3-0.8-0.39- Net exports0.1-1.1-0.610Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-2.0-1.4-1.011Employment (% change)-0.90.60.312Unemployment rate (%)5.65.55.513Labour productivity (% change)3.02.72.814HICP inflation (% change)9.85.94.015GDP deflator12.27.35.316Comp. of employees (per head, % change)18.211.56.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-3.8-4.0-3.5#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 23.2:  General government budgetary position 

Romania 

136 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)33.634.234.3of which:2- Taxes on production and imports10.610.910.93- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.5.25.45.44- Social contributions10.811.711.75- Other (residual)6.96.46.46RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.11.01.07Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)40.241.141.3of which:9- Primary expenditure38.239.139.3of which:10- Compensation of employees 10.010.810.811- Intermediate consumption6.06.15.912- Social payments11.812.213.213- Subsidies1.01.00.914- Gross fixed capital formation5.35.24.815- Other4.13.83.716- Interest expenditure2.02.02.017Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.11.01.018=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-6.6-6.9-7.019=1-9Primary balance-4.6-4.9-5.020Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-6.0-6.4-6.721One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-6.0-6.4-6.723=22+16Structural primary balance-4.0-4.4-4.7#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 23.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Romania 

137 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-6.0-6.4-6.72Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-1-1n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)5.05.4n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)7.56Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)14.37=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)6.88Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)2.1Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.3-0.1-0.110   - change-0.40.011=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-1.6-0.3Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)0.4-0.1-0.2of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.91.10.114=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure1.3-1.2-0.3   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure1.2-0.3-0.616   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.1-1.10.317   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.10.20.118p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)15.910.58.2Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 23.4:  Debt developments 

Romania 

138 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)48.850.953.92=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)1.32.13.0Contributions2:3Primary balance4.64.95.04≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-3.9-2.7-2.0of which:5- Interest expenditure2.02.02.06- Real growth effect-0.9-1.5-1.57- Inflation effect-5.0-3.2-2.58'Stock-flow' adjustment0.70.00.0Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 23.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants 

Romania 

Table 23.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Loans 

139 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.0.00.21.41.00.72Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.10.30.10.32Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.0.00.11.20.60.73Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.11.20.60.7#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.1.00.30.21.21.62Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.00.12Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.0.00.20.0n.a.n.a.3Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.0.00.20.0n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.0.10.00.0n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Source: Reporting by the Member StateOther costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
24. SLOVENIA 

Table 24.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

140 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)1.62.32.62Private consumption expenditure1.31.52.23Government consumption expenditure2.46.92.04Gross fixed capital formation9.53.83.45Exports of goods and services-2.02.33.86Imports of goods and services-5.14.63.6Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand3.23.02.38- Change in inventories-4.41.00.09- Net exports2.8-1.60.310Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)1.61.10.911Employment (% change)1.20.60.612Unemployment rate (%)3.73.73.613Labour productivity (% change)0.41.72.114HICP inflation (% change)7.22.82.415GDP deflator8.93.33.016Comp. of employees (per head, % change)11.86.14.417Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)3.20.90.7#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 24.2:  General government budgetary position 

Slovenia 

141 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)44.245.245.7of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.113.313.23- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.08.28.34- Social contributions16.117.217.55- Other (residual)7.16.56.66RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.20.70.87Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)46.748.047.9of which:9- Primary expenditure45.546.646.5of which:10- Compensation of employees 11.411.411.511- Intermediate consumption6.56.46.412- Social payments15.115.715.813- Subsidies1.91.31.314- Gross fixed capital formation5.35.85.415- Other5.25.96.116- Interest expenditure1.21.41.417Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.20.70.818=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-2.5-2.8-2.219=1-9Primary balance-1.2-1.4-0.820Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-3.2-3.3-2.621One-offs (% of GDP)-0.4-0.7-0.522=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-2.8-2.7-2.223=22+16Structural primary balance-1.6-1.2-0.7#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 24.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Slovenia 

142 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-2.8-2.7-2.22Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)0.750.75n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)3.63.4n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)5.56Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)5.67=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)0.18Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)0.0Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level1.40.10.010   - change-1.3-0.111=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-1.20.2Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)0.50.20.0of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.30.1-0.314=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.80.10.3   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.40.60.016   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.3-0.30.317   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.2-0.20.018p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)11.55.95.6Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 24.4:  Debt developments 

Slovenia 

143 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)69.268.166.42=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-3.3-1.1-1.6Contributions2:3Primary balance1.21.40.84≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-5.6-2.3-2.2of which:5- Interest expenditure1.21.41.46- Real growth effect-1.0-1.5-1.77- Inflation effect-5.8-2.2-1.98'Stock-flow' adjustment1.2-0.2-0.2Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 24.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Slovenia 

Table 24.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Loans 

144 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.20.20.10.50.70.62Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.40.00.50.20.70.6#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.0.00.00.10.20.30.22Gross fixed capital formationn.a.0.20.10.10.30.30.23Other capital expendituren.a.0.00.00.10.10.10.14=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.0.20.10.20.40.50.3#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the Plan (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.00.00.50.20.40.52Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.52Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.10.30.40.13Other capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.10.04=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.10.30.50.1#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactions0.00.00.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Source: Reporting by the Member StateOther costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
25. SLOVAKIA 

Table 25.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

145 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)1.62.22.92Private consumption expenditure-3.20.91.93Government consumption expenditure-0.63.41.04Gross fixed capital formation10.61.17.05Exports of goods and services-1.44.34.06Imports of goods and services-7.65.34.0Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand0.11.42.88- Change in inventories-5.01.60.09- Net exports6.5-0.80.110Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-0.6-0.7-0.311Employment (% change)0.30.20.112Unemployment rate (%)5.85.45.213Labour productivity (% change)1.32.02.814HICP inflation (% change)11.03.13.615GDP deflator10.14.63.216Comp. of employees (per head, % change)10.47.86.417Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-0.1-1.4-1.9#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 25.2:  General government budgetary position 

Slovakia 

146 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)43.041.641.3of which:2- Taxes on production and imports12.311.711.63- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.88.08.04- Social contributions15.415.715.75- Other (residual)7.66.25.96RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.51.21.17Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)47.947.546.6of which:9- Primary expenditure46.846.145.1of which:10- Compensation of employees 11.011.110.911- Intermediate consumption5.66.05.712- Social payments16.316.716.713- Subsidies3.31.61.014- Gross fixed capital formation4.74.14.515- Other5.96.76.416- Interest expenditure1.21.31.517Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.51.21.118=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-4.9-5.9-5.419=1-9Primary balance-3.7-4.5-3.920Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-4.7-5.6-5.321One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-4.7-5.6-5.323=22+16Structural primary balance-3.5-4.3-3.8#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 25.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Slovakia 

147 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-4.7-5.6-5.32Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)0.250.25n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)4.95.8n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)5.76Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)6.27=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)0.58Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)0.2Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level2.10.40.010   - change-1.7-0.511=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-1.50.0Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)-6.11.40.5of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-2.01.30.014=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-4.10.20.5   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-3.80.20.616   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.80.2-0.217   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.5-0.20.218p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)12.46.75.1Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 25.4:  Debt developments 

Slovakia 

148 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)56.058.559.92=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-1.72.41.4Contributions2:3Primary balance3.74.53.94≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-4.9-2.2-1.8of which:5- Interest expenditure1.21.31.56- Real growth effect-0.8-1.2-1.67- Inflation effect-5.2-2.4-1.78'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.50.2-0.6Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
Table 25.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Slovakia 

149 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.00.30.90.80.42Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.90.41.11.70.80.3#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.0.00.00.10.30.20.12Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.0.20.30.40.33Other capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.30.20.04=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.0.20.60.60.3#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 25.6:  Main indicators from the 2024 Stability Programme 

Slovakia 

150 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)1.62.03.12HICP (% change)11.03.24.43General government balance (% of GDP)-4.9-5.9-5.44Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)56.058.659.8#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
  
 
26. FINLAND 

Table 26.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

151 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)-1.00.01.42Private consumption expenditure0.40.51.43Government consumption expenditure4.50.0-0.74Gross fixed capital formation-4.20.24.05Exports of goods and services-1.70.92.16Imports of goods and services-7.11.22.5Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand0.30.31.58- Change in inventories-3.4-0.10.09- Net exports2.6-0.1-0.210Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-2.2-2.8-2.111Employment (% change)0.6-0.10.112Unemployment rate (%)7.27.47.213Labour productivity (% change)-1.60.11.314HICP inflation (% change)4.31.42.115GDP deflator4.81.82.116Comp. of employees (per head, % change)3.42.63.517Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-1.6-1.6-0.8#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 26.2:  General government budgetary position 

Finland 

152 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)52.953.053.3of which:2- Taxes on production and imports12.813.013.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.16.516.416.64- Social contributions12.211.411.55- Other (residual)11.512.212.06RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.20.27Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)55.656.456.1of which:9- Primary expenditure54.555.254.7of which:10- Compensation of employees 12.912.912.811- Intermediate consumption12.112.212.012- Social payments17.918.517.913- Subsidies1.01.00.914- Gross fixed capital formation4.04.24.715- Other6.66.56.416- Interest expenditure1.11.21.517Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.20.218=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-2.7-3.4-2.819=1-9Primary balance-1.6-2.2-1.420Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)-1.4-1.8-1.621One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)-1.4-1.8-1.623=22+16Structural primary balance-0.2-0.5-0.1#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 26.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Finland 

153 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)-1.4-1.8-1.62Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-0.5-0.5n.a.3At or above MTO?NoNon.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)0.91.3n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)2.26Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)4.07=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)1.88Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)0.9Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.20.00.010   - change-0.20.011=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-0.90.6Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)-0.9-0.70.7of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)-0.10.00.014=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure-0.9-0.70.6   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.8-0.81.116   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation0.3-0.1-0.517   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure-0.30.20.018p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)5.82.72.9Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 26.4:  Debt developments 

Finland 

154 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)75.880.582.42=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)2.34.71.9Contributions2:3Primary balance1.62.21.44≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.5-0.1-1.2of which:5- Interest expenditure1.11.21.56- Real growth effect0.70.0-1.17- Inflation effect-3.4-1.3-1.78'Stock-flow' adjustment2.32.61.8Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
Table 26.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Finland 

155 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.10.10.20.20.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.00.10.10.20.20.2#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expendituren.a.0.00.00.10.10.10.12Gross fixed capital formationn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.03Other capital expendituren.a.0.00.00.00.10.10.04=2+3Total capital expendituren.a.0.00.00.00.10.10.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 26.6:  Main indicators from the 2024 Stability Programme 

Finland 

156 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)-1.00.01.62HICP (% change)4.31.31.93General government balance (% of GDP)-2.5-3.4-2.74Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)75.880.882.3#VariablesSource: 2024 Stability Programme 
  
 
27. SWEDEN 

Table 27.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

157 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Real GDP (% change)-0.20.22.22Private consumption expenditure-2.60.52.53Government consumption expenditure1.51.70.54Gross fixed capital formation-1.5-1.42.15Exports of goods and services3.31.82.96Imports of goods and services-0.91.62.5Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)7- Final domestic demand-1.10.31.88- Change in inventories-1.3-0.30.09- Net exports2.20.10.310Output gap, planned (% of potential GDP)-1.3-2.5-1.911Employment (% change)1.5-0.40.512Unemployment rate (%)7.78.48.213Labour productivity (% change)-1.60.61.614HICP inflation (% change)5.92.01.815GDP deflator5.62.61.316Comp. of employees (per head, % change)4.14.13.017Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)6.76.66.7#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 27.2:  General government budgetary position 

Sweden 

158 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)47.447.647.1of which:2- Taxes on production and imports21.121.721.43- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.16.916.616.54- Social contributions3.23.33.35- Other (residual)6.16.15.96RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.17Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)48.049.048.0of which:9- Primary expenditure47.348.347.3of which:10- Compensation of employees 12.112.612.711- Intermediate consumption7.98.07.812- Social payments11.311.611.313- Subsidies1.61.71.514- Gross fixed capital formation5.05.25.315- Other9.49.28.716- Interest expenditure0.70.70.717Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.10.118=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-0.6-1.4-0.919=1-9Primary balance0.1-0.7-0.220Cyclically adjusted balance (% of GDP)0.10.00.221One-offs (% of GDP)0.00.00.022=20-21Structural balance (% of GDP)0.10.00.223=22+16Structural primary balance0.80.70.9#VariablesSource: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
Table 27.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Sweden 

159 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOMStructural fiscal indicators:1Structural balance (% of GDP)0.10.00.22Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)-1-1n.a.3At or above MTO?YesYesn.a.4=2-1Distance to MTO (pps. of GDP)n.a.n.a.n.a.Recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024:5Recommended maximum growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure1 (% change)n.a.6Projected growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)5.97=6-5Deviation from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure2 (pps.)n.a.8Deviation from the recommended net nationally financed primary expenditure (% GDP)n.a.Total net budgetary cost of energy measures3 (% of GDP):9   - level0.00.00.010   - change0.00.011=10+14Difference between fiscal adjustment and savings from energy measures4 (pps.)-0.60.8Net expenditure-based fiscal indicators:12=13+14Fiscal stance5 (% of GDP)0.1-0.60.9of which contribution from:13- EU-financed expenditure (RRF grants and other EU funds)0.00.00.114=15+16+17- Net nationally financed primary expenditure0.1-0.60.8   including:15   - Net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.0-0.50.916   - Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation-0.1-0.1-0.117   - Nationally financed other capital expenditure0.10.00.018p.m. nominal medium term potential growth (% change)7.74.53.1Notes:Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast#Variables1 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term objective.2 A positive (negative) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate.3 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers.4 A negative (positive) sign indicates that net nationally financed primary expenditure is projected to decrease at a rate less than (more than) the savings made from winding down the energy measures.5 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of both discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth rate in nominal terms. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (shortfal) of primary expenditure growth over medium-term potential GDP growth, which corresponds to an expansionary (contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3 of these Fiscal Statistical Tables. 
  
 
 
Table 27.4:  Debt developments 

Sweden 

160 

202320242025OutturnCOMCOM1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)31.232.031.32=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps.)-1.90.7-0.6Contributions2:3Primary balance-0.10.70.24≈5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.0-0.1-0.4of which:5- Interest expenditure0.70.70.76- Real growth effect0.10.0-0.77- Inflation effect-1.8-0.8-0.48'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.90.1-0.4Notes:#Variables1 End of period.2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects.Source: Commission 2024 spring forecast 
  
 
 
 
 
 
Table 27.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Sweden 

161 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.10.10.10.10.10.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.00.00.00.50.00.1#20202021202220232024202520261Total current expenditure0.00.10.00.00.10.00.02Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Other capital expenditure0.00.00.10.10.10.00.04=2+3Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.10.10.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Source: Reporting by the Member State 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 27.6:  Main indicators from the 2024 Convergence Programme 

Sweden 

162 

202320242025SPSPSP1Real GDP (% change)-0.20.72.52HICP (% change)8.53.10.83General government balance (% of GDP)-0.6-1.2-0.34Gross debt ratio (% of GDP)31.231.831.5#VariablesSource: 2024 Convergence Programme