Opinion of the European Economic and Social Committee – Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council 2023 – Strategic Foresight Report Sustainability and people's wellbeing at the heart of Europe's Open Strategic Autonomy (COM(2023) 376 final)
Date: 2024-04-24
Institutions: European Economic and Social Committee
Subjects: European social policy, adaptation to climate change, green economy, social impact, socioeconomic conditions, sustainable development, welfare








C_202404057EN.000101.fmx.xml












Official Journal of the European Union


EN
C series













C/2024/4057


12.7.2024






Opinion of the European Economic and Social Committee

Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council 2023


Strategic Foresight Report Sustainability and people's wellbeing at the heart of Europe's Open Strategic Autonomy

(COM(2023) 376 final)
(C/2024/4057)


Rapporteur: 
Stefano PALMIERI

Co-rapporteur: 
Gonçalo LOBO XAVIER






Advisor


Pier Francesco MORETTI




Referral


European Commission, 18.8.2023




Legal basis


Article 304 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union




Section responsible


Single Market, Production and Consumption




Adopted in section


11.4.2024




Adopted at plenary session


24.4.2024




Plenary session No


587




Outcome of vote
(for/against/abstentions)


154/0/1




1.   Conclusions and recommendations









1.1.


The European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) recognises foresight as important in supporting decision-making processes and notes the efforts at EU level to assign foresight a strategic institutional role and to consider it in the EU decision-making.












1.2.


The EESC welcomes the appointment of a Vice-President of the Commission as Commissioner for foresight and calls for that role to be confirmed by the new Commission.












1.3.


The EESC supports the Commission’s intention to continue developing the strategic foresight process, in cooperation with Member States and relevant stakeholders. The EESC calls for greater involvement for the EESC, as the voice of organised civil society and social partners, to enhance the EU’s analysis and foresight capacities and help pinpoint trends and possible solutions in a transformative society.












1.3.1.


In this regard, we propose:






i)


every five years, in the context of the European Parliament election and the nomination of the new European Commission, the EESC will coordinate an internal process to implement – for each section and the CCMI – a foresight exercise to identify the main trends and scenarios, priorities and actions;










ii)


every three years the previous exercise will be upgraded and updated (as a mid-term review) on the basis of what actually happened.




All this will allow the EESC to provide a strategic foresight framework capable of being minutely adapted to each section and area for action and will represent our body's contribution to the Commission and the foresight strategists' network.












1.4.


The EESC agrees with the Commission’s approach of promoting efforts to identify options for new economic models that are feasible and impactful, with a view to ensuring inclusive and sustainable competitiveness that maintains a high level of social and environmental protection, good quality jobs, and fair and solidarity-based conditions that preserve the European model of a highly competitive social market economy.












1.5.


The EESC calls for a renewed and expanded EU industrial policy aimed at coordinating decisions and interventions (e.g. use of funds, resources, instruments and measures) to increase coherence among sectors – in particular ‘traditional’ and manufacturing sectors – and among Member States towards sustainable competitiveness for the EU.












1.6.


The EESC calls for complementary indicators to GDP to be identified and translated into policy measures and specific concrete action, in order to assess the EU’s resilience and future-readiness; these indicators should be analysed in particular at local level within the EU and with regard to the EU’s international economic competitors.












1.7.


Demographic changes and emerging technologies (such as immigration, workforce transitions, labour mobility, skills and raw materials shortages, fertility and ageing) will impact the sustainability of taxation and welfare systems. The EESC calls on the EU and national institutions, the private sector and local stakeholders to work on defining and adopting a new European social contract fit for a sustainable future, as highlighted as the first key area of action in the 2023 Strategic Foresight Report (SF2023 report).












1.8.


The EESC recognises that skills are becoming increasingly important in a changing world and calls for education and training systems to be revised to fit the needs, helping workers and companies to adapt to the new requirements, with a view to providing a renewed social contract that will ensure a work-life balance and decent and quality jobs, reduce disparities and increase competitiveness and capacities at geographical and cultural levels, focused on growth and sustainability.












1.9.


The EESC asks the EU and Member States to join efforts to ensure the provision of European public goods in a balanced and sustainable way that maintains people’s quality of life and dignity. Commodities and services that will safeguard 
defence
, 
security
 (e.g. in food systems, water, energy supply and distribution, the economy, R&I, access to information, and strategic infrastructure), 
health
, 
education
 and 
well-being
 are crucial to enable the EU’s ‘comprehensive resilience ecosystem’ to achieve and maintain sustainable and inclusive competitiveness and democracy. On this basis the EESC asks for the next Multiannual Financial Framework post-2027 to take into account the results of the 2023 Strategic Foresight Report and the strategic foresight update exercises at EU level.












1.10.


EU institutions should carefully evaluate the potential and risks of using artificial intelligence tools in strategic foresight to analyse and understand patterns and interconnections, with a view to speeding up decision-making at European and other political levels.












1.11.


The EESC finds it regrettable that the SF2023 report makes no reference to the ‘EU Blue Deal’, and highlights the importance of ensuring a water-secure future for all with a comprehensive and ambitious European water strategy.




2.   Background









2.1.


Strategic foresight can be understood as a mix of innovative strategic planning, policymaking and solution design methods that does not claim to predict or foresee the future but works with alternative futures with the aim of trying to shape the final one (1). Based on this vision we agree with the following definition of strategic foresight: ‘a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-long-term vision-building process aimed at enabling present-day decision and mobilizing joint actions’ (2).












2.2.


The objective of foresight is to contribute to the strategic decision-making process by identifying and analysing early warnings, weak signals, drivers, trends, mega trends, wild cards and ‘black swans’ that enable us to predict how the current scenario will evolve along various future paths, identify the future we want and analyse the different paths to reach it.












2.3.


Nowadays, our world is facing a multitude of global challenges characterised by diverse interconnected aspects. The complexity of the resulting system makes it necessary to tackle these challenges by integrating the social, economic, political and environmental levels. For this reason, there is a growing demand for strategic foresight.












2.4.


In strategic foresight, a long-term vision is not based on a linear evolution of the individual components making up the current system but is a process, still based on experience and knowledge, whose creative and intuitive aspect can bring added value to a business-as-usual approach. In this process the various phases (monitoring, scanning, screening, modification/adaptation, evaluation) are fundamental and are part of that cyclical process of adapting the foreseen scenarios.












2.5.


Socio-biologists have described the challenge humans face in dealing with their existence as a system composed of divine technologies, medieval institutions and prehistoric emotions (3). This categorisation suggests that, when analysing scenarios and proposing action, aspects such as services, organisational structures and human nature cannot be neglected. Based on this reflection, alternative perspectives on foresight on global challenges have also been developed to inform policy in areas that are poorly defined or absent from Europe’s science agenda. These alternative perspectives argue in favour of increasing research into the human, social, political and cultural processes involved in techno-science endeavours (4).












2.6.


Foresight is recognised as a useful tool in decision-making processes and, as a result, has been recently introduced at EU institutional level. The EESC acknowledges the role of foresight in providing a strategic contribution to guiding decision-making at policy level. The EESC welcomes the efforts at EU level to strengthen the foresight processes that were initially carried out in 1979-1994 and have been enhanced over the last decade through the promotion of a joint foresight community (5). In this context, Europe must deal with various policy levels/contexts and capacities, stakeholder types and experiences, objectives and foresight methods (6). The EESC believes that these foresight initiatives – a good example of European investment in high-quality and useful research – will contribute significantly to addressing various scenarios and will facilitate the decision-making process.












2.7.


The EESC supports the Commission’s intention to continue developing the strategic foresight process, in cooperation with the Member States and with the involvement of the EESC. The EESC has provided input to recent strategic foresight reports (SFRs) by making suggestions in its opinions, jointly organising hearings with the Commission and inviting the Commission to relevant section meetings. The EESC reaffirms the importance of maintaining this constructive cooperation with the Commission so that the Committee can have a greater impact, and asks that the outcomes of the foresight process be tracked throughout the legislative process.












2.8.


Considering the relevance of the 2023 SFR and its focus on people and sustainability, the EESC calls for greater involvement for the EESC, as the voice of the social partners and organised civil society, to enhance the EU’s analysis and foresight capacities and help to pinpoint trends and possible solutions in a transformative society. The EESC welcomes the appointment of a Vice-President of the Commission as Commissioner for foresight and calls for that role to be confirmed by the new Commission.




3.   The European approach: comments on the 2023 Strategic Foresight Report









3.1.


The EESC recognises the European Commission’s efforts and welcomes the 2023 Strategic Foresight Report (7) (2023 SFR). The 2023 SFR was drawn up against the backdrop of a very dynamic social, geopolitical and economic situation, where Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine has amplified and transformed many of the major challenges identified in recent years. In this new global context, now exacerbated by the Middle East crisis, the strategic decisions made by the European Union are set to impact not only its achievement of the objectives of the green and digital transitions, but also its resilience and open strategic autonomy.













3.2.


The report provides an accurate description and analysis of the present threats to which the EU’s sustainable transition is exposed, within its borders and at global level, and concerns for some rights that EU citizens gained in the past that are now at risk. These are not only associated with specific areas (e.g. security, food, water, ageing) but with cross-cutting and structuring aspects of our society, such as peace, democracy, wellbeing and social cohesion: i) 
the rising importance of geopolitics and the reconfiguration of globalisation
; ii) 
the quest for a sustainable economy and wellbeing; iii) 
increasing pressure to ensure sufficient funding
; iv) 
the growing demand for skills and competencies for the sustainable future
; v) 
the widening gap in social cohesion
; vi) 
threats to democracy and the existing social contract
.












3.3.


The EESC acknowledges the conclusion of the foresight exercise, which suggests the need to tackle the adverse impact of 
climate change, biodiversity loss and the degradation of the environment
, and ensure the supply of 
critical raw materials
 and the transformation of 
energy
 production and distribution. The EESC recognises that high energy prices and the alarming geopolitical situation are heavily impacting the social and economic dimensions, including in terms of the available opportunities in the EU production system and labour market.












3.4.


In this context, the EESC considers it crucial to implement an effective EU industrial policy aimed at coordinating decisions and interventions (e.g. use of funds, resources, new common instruments and measures) to increase coherence among sectors and among Member States towards inclusive and sustainable competitiveness for the EU (8).












3.5.


The strategic courses followed by the main global players and emerging countries are galvanising geopolitical, economic, social and technological global rivalry. Developments on the global stage may jeopardise the foundations of multilateralism and the rules-based international order and threaten the EU’s position. The EESC supports the EU’s efforts in promoting its values and standards, including through smart investments in quality infrastructure and services, while respecting the highest social and environmental standards.












3.6.


The report identifies 
10 strategically key areas for EU action
: i) 
ensuring a new European social contract fit for a sustainable future
; ii) 
leveraging the single market to champion a resilient net-zero economy
; iii) 
strengthening the interlinkages between the EU’s internal and external policies, also to boost the EU’s offer and narrative on the global stage
; iv) 
supporting shifts in production and consumption towards sustainability
; v) 
moving towards a ‘Europe of investments’ by increasing private financial flows in support of strategic investments for the transitions
; vi) 
making public budgets fit for sustainability
; vii) 
further shifting policy and economic indicators towards sustainable and inclusive wellbeing
; viii) 
ensuring that everyone can successfully contribute to the sustainability transition;
 ix) 
strengthening democracy, including by increasing citizens’ agency
; x) 
reinforcing the EU’s toolbox on preparedness and response to complement civil protection with ‘civil prevention’
                  
.












3.7.


The report tentatively identifies the main problem stemming from the international context. The EESC agrees with the call for EU policies to be adapted to a new economic model, for an increase in investment to enhance wellbeing and for Europe’s economic system to become more fair, resilient and competitive. A new economic model can indeed induce a cascade effect on many different aspects that are reported as critical challenges (e.g. the social contract). Decoupling economic growth from resources, promoting and supporting circular economy activities, and the need to tackle interconnected aspects driving the major challenges (e.g. water supply, CO2 reduction, adaptation to adverse events caused by climate change, pandemic preparedness) are also linked to changes in behaviour, consumption and production. The EESC notes that all these aspects require massive investment, and joint institutional action to support the long-term transformation of the EU productive system and its workers. In this context, the EESC fully supports the revision of indicators of progress and prosperity that are now mainly identified in GDP.












3.8.


The EESC notes the increase in investment in defence by some countries, and in developing robotics, digital and cyber technologies. The EESC notes the increasing role of intangible assets, which can already be identified in process-based industrial and market transformations (e.g. distribution chains and client profiling), online platforms, and cyberwarfare. Eliminating the well-known ‘EU valley of death’ (9) for innovations and start-ups requires new forms of financing and regulation to develop start-ups and scale up innovative companies.












3.9.


Skills are becoming increasingly important in a changing world. This is coupled with shifts in the values and aspirations of the younger generation towards a work-life balance and decent and high-quality jobs. The EESC recognises that education and training systems have to be revised to fit the magnitude and speed of the transformations. The deluge of information that will be accessible in the future will require a problem-setting approach to learning that will enable people to navigate the uncertainties and crises that a complex world will face. In this context, where the circulation of information will be global, efforts are required to eliminate disparities and align capacities at geographical and cultural levels.












3.10.


Despite the accurate list of vulnerabilities that the EU could face in future scenarios, the EESC notes that the 10 key areas for action described in the report do not provide a clear focus on what the EU should prioritise in terms of effort and investment in specific measures/tools. As stated previously (10), the EESC notes that, while they are relevant, the 10 areas are not presented as logical and pragmatic solutions impacting on general trends and uncertainties. Hence, the EESC calls for an assessment of which activities should no longer be considered priorities, and of which tools and actions could have an impact at global level.












3.11.


The 2023 SFR refers to the issue of governance many times, in geopolitical, economic and social contexts. The EESC believes that suitable levels of strategic intelligence and anticipatory governance are required to guide the future-proofing of a growth-enhancing regulatory framework. In various global and local contexts where increased complexity is threatening democracy and competitiveness, it has been demonstrated at different levels that decentralising the organisational structure, adopting few rules and providing common fundamental services can ensure resilience and survival (11).












3.12.


The EESC agrees with the Commission’s approach of promoting high-quality social services, welfare politics, the elimination of inequalities and discrimination, and common current issues (climate, water and energy security, raw materials, environmental protection, defence of democracy and the rule of law, accountability of social platforms). The EESC fully supports the development of the concept of EU ‘civil prevention’, embedded in established civil protection, with the aim of boosting the bloc’s preparedness and its ability to respond quickly to emergencies. In this context the EESC finds it regrettable that the SF2023 report makes no reference to the EU Blue Deal and the importance of ensuring a water-secure future for all with a comprehensive and ambitious European water strategy.












3.13.


The EESC notes that the 10 areas do not identify structural transformations in the institutional organisation, including in view of the planned EU enlargement, in the management of human capital or in the adoption of high-risk and breakthrough actions to anticipate and guide events at global level. The term sustainability is used more and more in SFRs. The EESC notes that achieving integrated sustainability combining strategic autonomy, environmental protection and widespread social security requires dialogue and compromise, with transparent communication of the pros and cons of the various options.












3.14.


Foresight addresses a process of strategic thinking within the institutions involving continuous interaction with the context in which they operate. It aims to help make multilevel governance more appropriate and effective to better fulfil people’s needs. The EESC asks the Commission to map and monitor of the foresight exercises carried out at EU and national level.












3.15.


The EESC offers to utilise its organisational structure and expertise to identify priorities and potential action and to help involve the various stakeholders in foresight. This will be possible thanks to the acknowledged capacity of the EESC to engage civil society organisations and social partners at local level, as well as international level. These efforts will be structured and coordinated as part of a five-year process involving each EESC section and the CCMI, to implement foresight activities to identify the main trends and scenarios, priorities and actions. A mid-term review after three years will make it possible to upgrade and update the exercises on the basis of the evolution of the scenarios. The output will feed the European policy-making process in interaction with the Commission, Parliament and relevant networks and initiatives.




4.   Critical issues









4.1.


The EESC asks the EU and Member States to join efforts to ensure the provision of EU public goods, including by adapting the EU budget to the new scenario. Commodities and services that will safeguard 
defence, security
 (e.g. in food systems, water, energy supply and distribution, the economy, R&I, access to information and strategic infrastructure), 
health, education
 and 
well-being
 are crucial to enable the EU’s ‘comprehensive resilience ecosystem’ (12) to achieve and maintain sustainable and inclusive competitiveness and democracy.












4.1.1.


Recent geopolitical developments (e.g. the crisis in Ukraine and the Middle East) have worsened some external relations and put at risk the stability of the EU. Common political action and joint efforts at EU level would ensure that people and companies are defended from these external threats (tangible and intangible) that may threaten the EU’s ‘comprehensive resilience ecosystem’.












4.1.2.


The diversity of the interconnected variables of the market, at the level of sectors, stakeholders, standards and rules, means that the security of certain aspects needs to be ensured at public level. Security and safety of food systems and water, energy production and distribution, the economy, R&I, communication and access to information, and the use of strategic infrastructure (e.g. transport and the internet) should be guaranteed.












4.1.3.


The recent experience of the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that the EU is able to tackle such challenges and prepare for future emergencies, thanks to the contribution of research and coordinated intervention at political, logistical and financial levels. Efficient and effective coordinated public health systems and their digitalisation will be fundamental in supporting EU citizens in managing diseases and ageing.












4.1.4.


Ensuring inclusive and equitable education and promoting lifelong learning opportunities for all is grounded in long-established foundational principles of education as a human right and as a public good. The notion of education as a public good underlines the primary responsibility of the State in safeguarding social justice and the public interest in education.












4.1.5.


Well-being is a multifaceted concept encompassing emotional, functional and structural dimensions that are compatible with living well, with dignity, and with full participation in society. As a public good, it is connected to self-worth, freedom, achieving adequate living conditions, creativity, entrepreneurship and active citizenship.












4.2.


The EESC calls for the promotion of EU scientific excellence and of an ecosystem that can provide intangible assets. This requires a stronger commitment to funding high-risk ideas and to adopting specific rules and standards for their protection in applicable solutions (e.g. through taxation or adjustment mechanisms). Many emerging technologies have been identified and some of them would be useful in tackling certain challenges (13). In the long term, other promising solutions can achieve integrated sustainability ensuring the supply of critical raw materials combined with environmental protection (14) and carbon neutrality (i.e. artificial photosynthesis (15)).












4.2.1.


The EESC calls for the creation of safe spaces, e.g. at local level, for testing scenarios, combining ‘exnovation’ with innovation, and identifying weak signals and breakthrough ideas to integrate short- and long-term visions in preparing fair transitions.












4.3.


The EESC calls for an effort to be made to identify options for new economic models that are feasible and impactful, with a view to ensuring 
inclusive and sustainable competitiveness
 that maintains a high level of social and environmental protection, good quality jobs, and fair and solidarity-based conditions that preserve the model of a highly competitive social market economy. Moreover, the EESC fully supports the desire to identify complementary indicators to GDP and to translate these into policy measures and specific effective action to be taken. The combination of different indicators will provide new paths for addressing challenges and will eliminate the concept of ranking countries based solely on GDP.












4.4.


Population ageing as well as the uneven demographic situation across Europe and a shrinking working-age population will result in a combination of interconnected aspects (e.g. immigration, work force transformation, labour mobility, skill shortages, fertility and aging, sustainability of taxation and welfare system) that will put at risk the EU stability at socio-economic levels. The EESC calls on the EU institutions, the private sector and local stakeholders to work on defining and adopting a new European social contract fit for the challenges foreseen in the future and an EU fiscal capacity that can guarantee the sustainability of financial systems at EU and national level.












4.5.


In the face of an increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world, education can make the difference. Education and training systems need to radically transform their approaches in order to face future challenges. The exploitation of planetary resources requires intergenerational, knowledge-based support in order to promote common prosperity and wellbeing. This process will require a variety of stakeholders to be involved (16). With an increasing deluge of data and information being accessible to the global population, the concept of knowledge will need to be revised, and skills should focus on collaboration, communication, creativity and critical thinking (usually referred to as the four c’s) (17).






Brussels, 24 April 2024.


The President


of the European Economic and Social Committee

Oliver RÖPKE
               





(1)  UNDP, 2018, Foresight Manual – Empowered Futures for the 2030 Agenda.

(2)  Miles, I., Saritas, I., Solokov, A., 2016, Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation, Springer Switzerland.

(3)  Wilson E (2009) The real problem of humanity is the following: we have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and god-like technology. Debate at the Harvard Museum of Natural History, Cambridge, Mass., 9 September 2009.

(4)  Bina O., Mateus S., Pereira L. and Caffa A., ‘The future imagined: Exploring fiction as a means of reflecting on today's Grand Societal Challenges and tomorrow's options’, 2017, Futures, 86, 166-184.

(5)  European Commission. 2023, Mutual Learning Exercise – R&I Foresight in Government: A Handbook for Policymakers. Draft Final Report.

(6)  See the Commission project ‘Eye of Europe’, proposal no 101131738, granted under the HORIZON-WIDERA-2023-ERA-01-02 call, as a recent example of the need to meet the existing need to anticipate, explore and co-create future paths in, for and from research and innovation, as well as the Commission Horizon Europe Policy Support Facility ‘Mutual Learning Exercise on R&I Foresight’, which analyses strategic foresight in R&I in nine EU countries.

(7)  
            https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/ca1c61b7-e413-4877-970b-8ef619fc6b6c_en?filename=SFR-23-beautified-version_en_0.pdf.

(8)  
            OJ C, C/2024/2096, 26.3.2024, ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/C/2024/2096/oj.

(9)  This is the phase in the development of innovations and start-ups in which they slow down and initial funding begins to run out, even before they achieve complete transition to the market and expand towards commercial success.

(10)  
            
OJ C 290, 29.7.2022, p. 35.

(11)  Brafman O and Beckstrom R A (2006) The Starfish and the Spider, the Unstoppable Power of Leaderless Organizations. NY Penguin: New York, Laloux F (2015) The Future of Management Is Teal. https://www.strategy-business.com/article/00344?gko=10921; Hussain S T, Lei S, Akram T, Haider M J, Hussai S H and Ali M (2018) Kurt Lewin's change model: A critical review of the role of leadership and employee involvement in organizational change. Journal of Innovation & Knowledge, 3, 123-127; Abubakar A M, Elrehail M A, Alatailat H and Elci A (2019) Knowledge management, decision-making style and organizational performance. Journal of Innovation & Knowledge, 4, 104-114; De Toni A F, Biotto G and Battistella C (2012) Organizational design drivers to enable emergent creativity in web-based communities. The Learning Organization 19-4: 335-349.

(12)  Jungwirth R., Smith H., Willkomm E., Savolainen J., Alonso Villota M., Lebrun M., Aho A., Giannopoulos G., Hybrid threats: a comprehensive resilience ecosystem – Executive summary, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2023, doi:10.2760/113791, JRC129019.

(13)  World Economic Forum, https://www.weforum.org/reports/top-10-emerging-technologies-of-2023/.

(14)  Moretti PF, Grzybowski BA, Basios V, Fortunato E, Diez MS, Speck O, Martins R, STEM materials: a new frontier for an intelligent sustainable world, BMC Mat (2019) 1:3, https://doi.org/10.1186/s42833-019-0004-4.

(15)  Hann, E.C., Overa, S., Harland-Dunaway, M. et al. A hybrid inorganic–biological artificial photosynthesis system for energy-efficient food production. Nat Food
3, 461–471 (2022), https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00530-x, Fujishima A, Honda K. Electrochemical photolysis of water at a semiconductor electrode. Nature. 1972 Jul 7;238(5358):37-8. doi: 10.1038/238037a0. PMID: 12635268.

(16)  OECD, The future of education and skills 2030, https://www.oecd.org/education/2030/E2030%20Position%20Paper%20(05.04.2018).pdf.

(17)  Gjedde L, Learning Shift, https://www.learningshift.eu/uploads/2/0/8/6/20866568/ls-aau_design.pdf.


ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/C/2024/4057/oj
ISSN 1977-091X (electronic edition)