COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Managing climate risks - protecting people and prosperity
Date: 2024-03-12
Institutions: Directorate-General for Climate Action, European Commission
Subjects: EU financing, EU strategy, adaptation to climate change, carbon neutrality, clean technology, climate change, disaster resilience, environmental cooperation, green economy, sustainable development

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Strasbourg, 12.3.2024  COM(2024) 91 final  COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Managing climate risks - protecting people and prosperity  
 
 
COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL 
COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS 

Managing climate risks - protecting people and prosperity 

1.  Introduction  

1.1. Accelerating climate risks call for proactive management 

Managing uncertainty defines decision-making today, be it for the public, companies, or 
governments.  War  and  geopolitical  uncertainties,  cost  of  living,  demographic  challenges, 
environmental  degradation  and  health  emergencies,  social  inequalities,  political  polarisation 
and disinformation, rapid technological developments and migration all require urgent action. 
Policymakers  have  to  balance  attention  and  resources.  Intertwined  with  the  other  planetary 
crises of pollution and biodiversity  loss  and  amplifying many of the other risks, the climate 
crisis is one of the most existential of all the threats we face.  

The EU is taking action to cut greenhouse gas emissions in this decade and to achieve climate 
neutrality by 2050. The Commission has initiated a debate on a 2040 climate target as a further 
step towards a competitive, net  zero future1. Such rapid  global emission cuts  are needed, as 
there are physical limits to what it is possible to adapt to.   

Climate  impacts  are  already  here,  and  risks  will  continue  to  increase  in  the  coming 
decades and beyond due to the inertia of the climate system, even if ambitious global emission 
cuts reduce the potential damage. In February 2024 the Copernicus Climate Change Service 
reported that the global  average temperature  for  the preceding  12 months had  surpassed the 
threshold of 1.5 degrees  centigrade above pre-industrial levels2. The outlook for Europe is 
well presented in the first ever European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA)3 by the European 
Environment Agency. In the best-case scenario where we limit global warming to 1.5 degrees 
above pre-industrial levels, Europe – which is heating twice the global rate - will have to learn 
to live with climate that is 3 degrees warmer, and consequently cope with exponentially more 
heatwaves and other weather extremes. 

1 COM(2024) 63 final. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2024%3A63%3AFIN 
2 https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record  
3 EEA (2024), European Climate Risk Assessment, ISSN 1977-8449. 
https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/european-climate-risk-assessment  

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Figure 1: Temperature projections for Europe under four standard global climate scenarios  

Source: EUCRA, based on Copernicus Climate Change Service  

Climate resilience is a matter of maintaining societal functions, but also of competitiveness 
for economies and companies, and thus jobs. Managing climate risks is a necessary condition 
for improving living standards, fighting inequality and protecting people. It is a matter of 
economic  survival  for  rural  and  coastal  areas,  farmers,  foresters  and  fishers.  For 
businesses,  climate  risks  are  already  well  recognised  and  are  seen  as  the  top  four  risks  in  a 
decade4. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) can face particular resource constraints. 
Whether  it  is  through  exposed  supply  chains,  decreasing  access  to  insurance,  vulnerable 
domestic assets, loss of biodiversity that economic sectors depend on, or insufficient protection 
of  people,  the  recovery  from  increasingly  intense  climate-related  disasters  will  absorb  ever 
more capacity and capital for the unprepared.  

The  European  Central  Bank  and  the  European  Systemic  Risk  Board  have  recognised  that 
climate risks can affect financial stability in many ways, and have made a case for a robust, 
system wide macroprudential strategy to tackle such risks5. At the same time, agile and dynamic 
EU companies, including SMEs, have the potential to become leaders in some of the market 
segments  that  build  resilience,  such  as  innovation  around  the  use  of  space  data  and 
technologies.  

4 https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2024/  
5 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.pr231218_1~6b3bea9532.en.html  

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Increasing climate risks also have an impact on the geopolitical landscape, impinging on 
global  safety  and  security,  trade  flows  and  economic  stability,  and  the  ability  to  maintain 
essential services for affected populations. Conversely, improving preparedness and resilience 
against climate impacts can help manage one of today’s major global challenges with positive 
spill-over effects.  

77% of the EU public sees climate change as a very serious problem, and 37% already feels 
personally exposed to climate risks. Both  the European Parliament6 and  EU leaders7 have 
recognised the urgency of stepping up the response to the climate emergency and strengthening 
the EU’s resilience. In line with the Communication on Europe’s 2040 climate target and path 
to climate neutrality by 2050, investments in climate-resilient buildings, transport and energy 
system could create significant business opportunities, generate economies of scale, and benefit 
more widely to  the European  economy,  generating highly skilled jobs,  and affordable clean 
energy. 

The  European  vision  of  a  healthy,  inclusive  and  fair  society  is  a  source  of  strength. 
Solidarity,  inclusiveness,  innovation  and  the  rule  of  law  have  seen  us  through  historical 
challenges and will see us through this one.  

The coordination made possible by the European Union is a powerful tool for building 
resilience. It brings efficiencies, which are essential with so many claims on public and private 
resources.  It  also  enables  countries,  regions,  and  local  communities  to  see  what  is  and  isn’t 
working elsewhere, and leads to faster, more effective action. The scale of action needed in 
some areas means that, without coordination, the necessary decisions and measures are unlikely 
to be taken in time to prevent irreversible environmental impacts. Finally, the EU adds value 
by  developing  tools  that  help  citizens,  public  and  private  stakeholders  build  resilience. 
Considerable  investment  from  EU  budget,  notably  via  cohesion  policy,  went  into  climate 
adaptation and mitigation over the past decade. In 2021-2027, Cohesion investments in this area 
are foreseen to reach around EUR 118 billion. 

Some of the  disasters  that happened  in  2023  clearly reveal  the pattern of increasing  climate 
risks,  and  all  EU  countries  have  been  affected  to  some  extent,  beyond  the  examples  given 
below.  

Box 1: Four examples of disaster events in 2023 linked to climate-related hazards: 

-  Greece. From July to August wildfires, fuelled by drought and heatwaves, burnt an area of 
170,000  hectares  in  Greece.  In  particular,  the  wildfire  in  Alexandroupolis  became  the 
largest wildfire in Europe since 2000, burning more than 96,000 hectares. Storm Daniel 
caused record-breaking rainfall in Greece in early September, with a reported 750 mm of 
rain  falling  in  24  hours  in  Zagora,  which  represents  more  than  a  year  of  rainfall 
accumulation  for  this  area.  This  event  wiped  out  some  15%  of  the  country’s  annual 
agriculture yield.  

-  Slovenia. In August, heavy rainfall over several days compounding on already high water 
levels  led to  massive flooding and landslides, with  two thirds of Slovenia affected, with 
damages around 16 % of GDP.  

6 P9_TA(2022)0330. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2022-0330_EN.html  
7 EUCO 14/23. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/67627/20241027-european-council-conclusions.pdf  

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-  Scandinavia. In August, Storm Hans swept across Denmark, Norway and Sweden, causing 
severe damage to infrastructure and agriculture, and major disruptions to critical transport 
networks. Insurance claims set new records. 

-  All  of  Europe.  The  2023  Cerberus  heatwave  set  new  temperature  records  in  many 
countries. This followed the 2022 summer heatwaves where  between 60,000 and 70,000 
Europeans died from record breaking heat.  

Climate action is in the interest of all. Climate-related damages are not the result of unfortunate, 
unforeseen natural disasters. They are a function of known climate risks, and the policy actions 
taken to reduce those risks. This Communication sets out key steps needed to ensure that, 
in the face of worsening climate risks, the public and businesses can rely on the EU and 
its Member States to maintain societal functions and continued access to basic services. It 
seeks  to  clarify  who  is  responsible  for  making  the  difficult  choices  and  taking  action, 
informed by the best evidence. It shows how the EU can effectively get ahead of climate 
impacts  in  the  coming years  and  how  building  resilience  makes  achieving  other  policy 
objectives cheaper and easier. This endeavour requires that, in the future, preparedness and 
resilience in the face of climate risks be factored in into EU level and Member State action by 
default across policy areas. 

1.2. EU foundations are in place for improving climate risk management 

The  European  Climate  Law  requires  the  EU  institutions  and  the  Member  States  to  ensure 
continuous progress on adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability. 
Implementation of the broad action plan of the 2021 EU adaptation strategy is in full swing. To 
enhance the resilience of EU funded investments, cohesion policy and other key programmes 
in the EU budget have integrated the principle of ‘do no significant harm’ and established a 
climate proofing practice. A wide range of  sector policies are  being  updated  with  respect  to 
climate risks. The Member States are improving adaptation action and have taken the first steps 
to include climate resilience in their national energy and climate plans (NECPs).  

Still,  the  findings  of  recent  Commission  assessments8  9  10have  been  mixed.  Whereas  steady 
progress can be noted at EU level through the implementation of the EU adaptation strategy, 
much more needs to be done by the Member States on governance aspects, awareness raising, 
fairness  and  just  resilience,  financing,  and  nature-based  solutions.  The  latest  Commission 
assessments  of  draft  updated  NECPs  and  associated  recommendations  identify  a  mismatch 
between the NECPs and the Member States’ planned and implemented adaptation policies and 
measures.  The  Commission  issued  recommendations  and  is  ready  to  further  assist  Member 
States in improving their NECPs to accelerate implementation and investments in the coming 
years.  

8 SWD(2023) 339 final. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX:52023SC0339 
9 SWD(2023) 932 final. https://climate.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-12/SWD_2023_932_1_EN.pdf  
10 https://commission.europa.eu/energy-climate-change-environment/implementation-eu-countries/energy-and-
climate-governance-and-reporting/national-energy-and-climate-plans_en   

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The report ‘Preventing and managing disaster risk in Europe’11 shows that climate-related risks 
are high on the disaster risk management agenda across Europe. Worryingly, it also shows that 
while  climate  risks  are  mostly  acknowledged,  the  civil  protection  risk  assessments  rarely 
consider  climate  scenarios  and  uncertainties.  The  Member  States’  assessments  of  risks  to 
critical infrastructure will be carried out by January 2026 under the Critical Entities Resilience 
Directive. Current budgetary outlook assessments do not consider climate risks systematically, 
if  at  all.  Overall,  while  the  processes  and  requirements  agreed  upon  in  EU-level  policy 
frameworks  can  address  climate  risks,  implementation  currently  falls  short  of  providing 
reasonable assurance.  

Progress is therefore uneven and is not keeping pace with accelerating climate change. Both 
the  EU  and  its  Member  States  must  become  significantly  better  at  preparing  for  and 
effectively addressing climate risks. 

The EUCRA report sets out in telling detail the key climate risks for Europe and how these 
interact with and amplify many non-climate risks. This Communication responds to the report 
and other recent evidence. It does not look in-depth into potentially major risks to the EU from 
climate impacts outside the EU, or vice versa. Climate change can unleash cascading risks, and 
exacerbate  environmental  degradation  and  existing  drivers  of  conflict,  displacement  and 
migration. These complex interlinkages merit specific analysis to inform policy decisions, as 
reflected in the Communication on the climate and security nexus12.  

In line with the international dimension of the EU adaptation strategy13, the EU will continue 
to support integrated solutions for climate resilience in fragile and vulnerable countries. The 
EU Global Gateway, the EU’s comprehensive strategy worth EUR 300 billion, the Economic 
and Investment Plans designed for the EU Southern neighbourhood, Eastern partnership and 
the Western Balkans can offer tools for mitigating climate risks at global level. As an example, 
the  EU  has  launched  the  comprehensive  Team  Europe  Initiative  (TEI)  on  Climate  Change 
Adaptation  and  Resilience  in  Sub-Saharan  Africa  as  part  of  the  EU-Africa  Global  Gateway 
investment package. In line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the EU 
will continue to support disaster risk reduction in partner countries, putting the focus on disaster 
risk knowledge and governance, prevention, preparedness (particularly early warning systems), 
response and recovery. 

The Communication follows up on the most recent UN Climate Summit (COP28) outcomes on 
adaptation  and  particularly  on  implementation  of  the  UAE  Framework  for  Global  Climate 
Resilience14. The EU will continue to foster climate resilience and climate risk management, 
contributing to climate adaptation and conflict prevention in its climate diplomacy tools that 
leverage European experiences in international fora and bilaterally. 

11  COM(2024)  130  final.  https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/what/civil-protection/european-
disaster-risk-management_en  
12 JOIN(2023) 19 final. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52023JC0019  
13 COM(2021)82 final. eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52021DC0082&from=EN 
14 CMA.5 Decision on Glasgow–Sharm el-Sheikh work programme on the global goal on adaptation  

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2.  Analysis: the latest evidence on the key risks for Europe  

2.1. Findings of the European Climate Risk Assessment  

The science is clear: Europe will face higher overall temperatures, the risk of more intense and 
frequent  heatwaves,  prolonged  droughts,  more  intensive  precipitation,  lower  average  wind 
speeds and less snow. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports have stated 
this  clearly.  However,  this  overall  picture  does  not  show  the  complex  interactions  between 
hazards and the probability of catastrophic impacts.  

Figure 2: Observed and projected trends in key climate-related hazards in different European 
regions 

Source: EUCRA  

These climatic hazards will lead to more disasters such as droughts, floods, wildfires, diseases, 
crop failures, heat deaths, infrastructure damage, and structural changes to the environment. In 
practice,  the  societal  preparedness,  the  financial  and  administrative  capacity  to  recover,  and 
physical  location  are the main  factors determining  how exposed  and vulnerable  we  are  as a 
society.  

Southern Europe will face stronger climatic pressures than the rest of Europe, as will Arctic 
areas. The outermost regions have a distinct set of risks. This asymmetrical exposure to climate 
impacts exacerbates the already existing disparities between regions in terms of need for climate 

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adaptation, risk prevention and preparedness, which can put pressure on the tools for EU-wide 
cohesion.  

The society-wide costs and benefits of avoided damages cannot be calculated accurately, but 
an estimate of the scale should be enough to warrant action. A conservative estimate is that 
worsening climate impacts could reduce EU GDP by about 7% by the end of the century. If 
global  warming  goes  more  permanently  beyond  the  1.5  degrees  threshold  of  the  Paris 
Agreement, the cumulative additional reduction in GDP for the EU as a whole could amount to 
EUR 2.4 trillion in the period from 2031 to 205015. Annual damages in Europe from coastal 
flooding could exceed EUR 1.6 trillion by 210016, with 3.9 million people exposed to coastal 
flooding every year.  

Climate risks are especially felt by the most vulnerable people due to a range of socio-economic 
factors  such  as  income,  gender,  age,  disability,  health,  and  social  exclusion  (particularly 
affecting  migrants,  ethnic  minorities,  and  indigenous  peoples).  Pre-existing  disadvantages 
reduce  the  capacity  to  recover  from  climate-induced  disasters.  Poorer  urban  areas,  but  also 
schools  and  hospitals  tend  to  be  in  urban  heat  islands.  Both  in  urban  and  rural  settings,  the 
population living in low-lying areas faces increased risks of flooding, and the consequences 
associated with water contamination. 

Exposed workers, primarily those working outdoors in sectors such as agriculture, construction, 
emergency  services,  and  tourism,  are  more  likely  to  face  extreme  heat  conditions.  Beyond 
occupational health and safety impacts and earnings losses affecting individual workers due to 
lost working hours, the ensuing reduction in labour productivity can cascade into shortfalls in 
economic output at a broader territorial level. Poorly designed adaptation solutions can further 
deepen  inequalities.  Consideration  of  social  aspects,  dialogue  as  well  as  inclusive  and 
participatory  decision-making  processes  with  impacted  communities  is  essential  for  well-
designed policy action. Providing security is part of the social contract with our citizens.  

The EUCRA identified 36 key risks for Europe, several of them already at critical levels and of 
high urgency. Each of these should be considered by policymakers. The Section 4 responds to 
some of these, while focussing on actions which can respond to several risks simultaneously.  

15 SWD(2024) 63 final. https://climate.ec.europa.eu/document/download/768bc81f-5f48-48e3-b4d4-
e02ba09faca1_en  
16 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15665-3 

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Figure 3: Links between major climate risks clusters and exposed policy areas  

Source: EUCRA  

2.2. Uncertainties and probabilities  

Despite the complexity of the climate system and the prevailing uncertainties, scientists have 
high confidence that climate will continue to deteriorate in the coming decades. Policymakers 
and investors need to consider the probability of the outcome they want to avoid.  

Uncertainty is not a valid excuse for inaction. The precautionary principle17 requires decision-
makers to take a preventive, proactive approach to ensure good stewardship of our societies. 

17 For Union policies, as set out in Article 191 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union 

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3.  Solutions space – equipping society for action 

Fast  development,  test  and  deployment  of  actionable  solutions  is  needed  in  a  changing 
environment.  The  EU  Mission  on  Adaptation  to  Climate  Change  supports  regions  with 
innovative solutions that accompany a region or local authority towards climate resilience by 
2030, and can serve as best practice for all interested parties.  

Investing in resilience from the outset of an infrastructure project means the asset will be better 
able  to  withstand  extreme  weather  conditions  so  that  ad-hoc  reconstruction  and  recovery 
expenses  are  avoided.  Every  euro  needed  to  repair  damage  is  a  euro  not  spent  on  a  more 
productive investment. Conversely, every euro spent on prevention and preparedness will bring 
benefits for all, going beyond the initial investment18. Planning decisions of today need to build 
on a sound anticipatory assessment of risks19. 

The climate risks facing Europe cannot be addressed in isolation from other societal challenges. 
The best, lasting solutions are those that secure multiple benefits. The evidence in the EUCRA 
report  points  to  several  areas  where  cross-cutting  solutions  may  help  remove  barriers  to 
adaptation to climate change. This is why a systemic approach is needed.  

The  following  sub-sections  identify  four  overarching  categories  of  solutions  that  make 
administrative systems in the EU and its Member States better able to deal with climate risks: 
improved  governance,  tools  for  risk  owners,  harnessing  structural  policies,  and  right 
preconditions for financial resilience.  

3.1. Improved governance  

The division of responsibilities between the EU and the national level – risk ownership – varies 
between policy areas and is based on subsidiarity. In practice this often means that the European 
Parliament and the Council agree on a common  general  framework at EU level, with actual 
implementation approaches designed and decided by the Member States at national level, and 
implemented at national, regional, and local levels. At EU level, climate risks should be better 
considered in the governance aspects of policies, legislation and financial instruments, and in 
seeking synergies between EU policies and measures.  

While most policies include provisions for considering climate risks, there are shortcomings in 
the way such policies and legislation are implemented in the Member States. Improvements are 
necessary across all governance levels. Attention must be paid to how the national, regional and 
local levels interact and how their means and tasks are aligned. The Commission calls on the 
Member  States  to  fully  implement  the  existing  commitments  on  adaptation,  and  also 
consider relevant Commission recommendations.  

Improving governance of climate risks requires: 

18  2021  International  Bank  for  Reconstruction  and  Development  /  The  World  Bank  “Economics  for  Disaster 
Prevention and Preparedness: Investment in Disaster Risk management in Europe Makes Economic Sense” 
19 Recommendation establishing Union Disaster resilience Goals OJ C 56, 15.2.2023 

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Clear  risk  ownership.  The  Commission  calls  on  all  EU  Institutions  to  consider  how  sector-
specific climate risks and the responsibility to act on climate risks is distributed between the 
EU and the Member States in the current legislative setup for key policy areas. 

Strengthened governance structures. Clear governance structures for managing climate risks in 
Member States should ensure vertical and horizontal coordination among national, regional and 
local levels. The Commission calls on the Member States to ensure that risk owners at national 
level have necessary capabilities and resources to manage climate risks. The Commission will 
also  structurally  embed  climate  risks  in  its  internal  processes  by  strengthening  climate  risk 
controller functions and in the implementation of the climate consistency check in the Better 
Regulation requirements.  

Synergies in governance processes. The implementation of legislation relating to climate risks 
could  be  further  improved  and  made  more  consistent.  The  European  Climate  Law,  the 
Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action, the Critical Entities 
Resilience Directive, the Regulation on Serious Cross-border Threats to Health, the imminent 
revised EU Economic Governance Framework, the Nature Restoration Law, once adopted, the 
Birds  and  Habitats  Directives,  the  Water  Framework  Directive,  the  Floods  Directive,  the 
Marine  Strategy  Framework  Directive,  the  Union  Civil  Protection  Mechanism  (UCPM) 
Decision with its Union Disaster Resilience Goals, all include provisions linked to managing 
climate  risks.  To  simplify  processes  and  render  them  more  effective,  the  Commission  will 
explore how the implementation of EU level requirements can be further facilitated, streamlined 
and strengthened.  

3.2. Tools for empowering risk owners 

Thanks  to  the  scientific  advances  on  understanding  climatic  risks,  and  the  EU  research  and 
innovation  funding  supporting  these  advances,  we  can  take  meaningful  action  now.  The 
Commission will continue to invest in decision-useful research and innovation, and to leverage 
knowledge and solutions put forward by relevant EU Missions, projects and Partnerships in the 
Horizon  Europe.  This  alone  is  not  sufficient,  as  highlighted  by  the  knowledge  actions  put 
forward by the EUCRA. A high-resolution quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment, combined 
with matching adaptation and resilience assessment would be highly relevant  for prioritising 
action. Access to available research and operational tools and data, and the ability to use them, 
can support the competitiveness of EU businesses and improve public policy decisions. Official 
climate resilience-related European statistics are also needed, compiled consistently with GDP 
and other national accounts aggregates.   

Even where governance structures are strong, effective decision-making on climate risks is held 
back by substantial skill, labour and knowledge gaps in both the private and the public sector, 
compounded by climate disinformation. To manage climate risks effectively and to make better 
use of the already available information and early warning systems, there is a need for better 
access to these and to relevant knowledge tools, as well as capacity building.  

Improving the capacity of risk owners to fulfil their tasks requires:  

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Climate data, modelling tools and indicators. High quality, easily understandable climate data 
and  models  are  crucial  for  informed  decision-making  on  matters  ranging  from  long-term 
planning to early warning systems.  

-  The Commission and the European Environment Agency (EEA) will provide access to key 
granular and localised data, products, applications, indicators and services, notably through 
the  Climate-ADAPT  platform  and  the  data  platforms  of  Copernicus  Climate  Change 
Service, namely Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem20 and WEkEO21.  

-  The first two digital twins under the Destination Earth initiative (DestinE) - Climate Change 
Adaptation  and  Weather  Induced  Extremes  digital  twins  -  will  provide  from  mid-2024 
onwards detailed simulations of climate scenarios from global to national and sub-national 
levels at a multi-decadal timescale, including uncertainty quantification. The Digital Twin 
of  the  Ocean  will  also  provide  detailed  simulations  and  scenarios  and  enable  better 
understanding of processes such as sea-level rise, ice-melting, coastal erosion, the carbon 
cycle and changes in biodiversity. Horizon Europe will continue supporting research aimed 
at  delivering  large  sets  of  high-resolution  seamless  multi-decadal  climate  simulations  to 
better characterise local risks and uncertainties. 

-  To  help  with  emergencies,  in  2025  the  Galileo  Emergency  Warning  Satellite  Service 
(EWSS) will become available to communicate alert information to people, businesses and 
public authorities even when terrestrial alert systems are down.  

-  Major data gaps will be reduced thanks to the proposed Forest Monitoring Law22 and the 
proposed Soil Monitoring Law23, which will improve early warning tools for wildfires and 
other  disasters  and  contribute  to  more  accurate  risk  assessments.  More  broadly,  the 
Commission  will  promote  the  use  of  the  available  monitoring,  forecasting  and  warning 
systems24. 

The Commission will review the existing tools and guidelines including the EEA’s European 
Climate Data Explorer25 and the adaptation dashboard hosted in the EU Mission on Adaptation 
to Climate Change’s Portal26 in Climate-ADAPT, the Risk Data Hub27, PROVIDE’s climate 
risk  dashboard28  and  make  more  use  of  the  analytical  and  foresight  capabilities  of  the 
Emergency  Response  Coordination  Centre.  The  Commission  will  improve  user  access, 
including at local level, and will monitor the use of the tools. It will seek better indicators on 
progress on resilience, including in conjunction with other interlinked and relevant indicators 
to ensure a system approach.  

Baseline climate scenarios. To reduce the complexity of assessing risks, the Commission will 
use  the  IPCC  intermediate  emissions  scenario29  as  the  lowest  acceptable  baseline  climate 
scenario for covering physical risks in assessing the impacts of policies and use more adverse 
scenarios in stress-testing and to compare adaptation options. The Member States are advised, 

20 https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/  
21 https://www.wekeo.eu/  
22 COM(2023) 728 final. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2023%3A728%3AFIN  
23 COM(2023) 416 final. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52023PC0416  
24 E.g. EFAS, EFFIS, EDO 
25 https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/knowledge/european-climate-data-explorer/  
26 https://discomap.eea.europa.eu/MKH/MapViewer/index.html 
27 https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/risk-data-hub#/  
28 https://climate-risk-dashboard.climateanalytics.org/  
29 Described in IPCC 6th Assessment Report as part of the SSP2-4.5 scenario, with an approximate global effective 
radiative forcing of 4.5.  

11 

 
 
 
and private stakeholders are expected, to do likewise; the Commission internal guidance on this 
matter will be published. Better historical data, for example on disaster losses, is useful as an 
indicator  and  input  in  projections.  But  deciding  on  climate  future  based  primarily  on 
extrapolated historical data is reckless behaviour. 

Enhanced public and private sector capacities. The Commission will support the development 
of  training  materials  and  online  open  courses  on  climate  resilience  through  a  single  online 
platform, partly through Climate-ADAPT. The extensive range of adaptation planning tools at 
EU level will become part of the knowledge base. The Commission will support the Member 
States in their efforts to ensure that national curricula and training programmes, including those 
for  public  administrators,  are  future-ready,  and  will  continue  to  support  administrative 
cooperation  among  and  within  the  Member  States30.  Based  on  further  discussions,  the 
Commission will develop climate and disaster risk assessments tools to help the Member States 
and the private sector, including SMEs.  

The Commission will also leverage existing tools: 

-  The  EU  Mission  for  Adaptation  to  Climate  Change  is  a  major  contributor  to  regional 

capacity building.  

-  The  Technical  Support  Instrument  supports  the  Member  States  in  the  design  and 

implementation of reforms aimed at reducing and managing climate risks.  

-  The competence framework on sustainability (GreenComp), released in 2022, provides a 

basis to foster competences needed to address climate change.  

-  The education and training initiatives and policies developed under the European Education 

Area (for instance with the Education for Climate Coalition) will be used.  

-  The unique collaboration model between academia, research and business developed under 
the  European  Institute  of  Innovation  and  Technology  (EIT)  and  its  Knowledge  and 
Innovation Communities (KICs), notably KIC “EIT Climate” can provide support. 

Combatting disinformation. The Commission will contribute to efforts to monitor and analyse 
how disinformation narratives enter the public space and impact opinion and behaviour. It will 
enhance the use of relevant policy tools, digital solutions, and communication approaches to 
fight climate disinformation. This includes ensuring that compliance with the Digital Services 
Act properly covers disinformation and that climate science is properly covered in social media 
companies’ compliance with the Code of Practice on Disinformation.  It  will also work with 
partners internationally to address disinformation as a growing societal challenge that is rooted 
in skewed economic incentives and poses a threat to the functioning of our democratic systems. 

3.3. Harnessing structural policies 

While risk ownership distribution between the EU and its Member States varies between policy 
areas, three structural policy areas hold particular promise for managing climate risks across 
many sectors:  

Better spatial planning in the Member States. Land use and planning are national – and often 
local - responsibilities. Land is not only an asset but is imbued with locally specific meaning 
and value beyond the monetary. At the same time, land use and planning decisions affect the 

30 COM(2023) 667. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=COM:2023:667:FIN  

12 

 
 
 
 
 
resilience and insurability against risks of broader communities and economies. Such decisions 
should  explicitly  state  the  assumptions  about  climate  risks  and  be  approved  by  the  national 
authorities responsible for the resilience of critical infrastructure and entities. The Commission 
will consider options to incentivise uptake of best practices, including by strengthening the link 
between the quality of territorial and maritime planning, and the cohesion, transport, fisheries, 
finance  and  agriculture  policies.  The  Commission  will  build  on  existing  work  and  include 
resilience  principles  in  the  New  European  Bauhaus  initiative31  to  facilitate  the  planning  of 
resilient communities. 

Embedding climate risks in planning and maintaining critical infrastructure. Closely linked to 
spatial planning, governments’ ability to maintain societal functions depends on the resilience 
of the entities that operate critical infrastructure to provide their essential services for the society 
and the economy. The Critical Entities Resilience Directive facilitates coordination between the 
Member States and sets out risk assessment processes for them and the critical entities. The 
Commission calls on each Member State to ensure that their national risk assessment under the 
Critical  Entities  Resilience  Directive32  explicitly  addresses  the  long-term  resilience  of  the 
entities  in  scope  to  climate  risks  and  invites  the  Member  States  to  do  so  ahead  of  the  2026 
deadline set in the Directive. Some of the critical infrastructure is agreed and co-financed at EU 
level, such as the trans-European networks TEN-T and TEN-E, but also for example EU-funded 
hospitals  and  schools.  The  Commission  will  update  and  develop  relevant  sectoral  guidance 
documents. The available satellite data and services should be used fully to bolster the resilience 
of critical infrastructure against climate risks. 

Linking EU-level solidarity with adequate national resilience measures. If national capacities 
are overwhelmed, the civil protection capacities and other solidarity mechanisms at EU level 
(including the UCPM, the EU Solidarity Fund, Cohesion policy structural investments, certain 
tools  under  the  common  agricultural  policy  and  other  sectoral  support  packages)  may  be 
mobilised  to  protect  people against climate  impacts and help  them recover faster. However, 
both national and EU level capacities are already stretched while risk pressures will continue to 
increase. Since 2019, the UCPM has been activated and coordinated assistance 76 times in EU 
Member States and third countries for climate-related emergency situations (extreme flooding, 
wildfires, storms and acute drought). Over EUR 8.6 billion have been spent through the EU 
Solidarity Fund for supporting 24 Member States and 4 accession countries after 110 disasters 
from natural hazards. 

The solidarity mechanisms need to be adequately resourced to ensure that the EU can help those 
in need. The civil protection systems and assets must be future-proofed, through investing in 
EU and Member State disaster risk management, response capacities and expertise that can be 
rapidly deployed across borders. This should fully integrate climate risks in the disaster risk 
management processes, as set out in the Union disaster resilience goals33 and the Commission 
report  on  prevention  risk  management  of  disaster  risks  in  Europe34.  As  EU  response  and 
recovery capacities can become exhausted with increasing risks, the Commission will consider 
how the solidarity mechanisms can better incentivise adequate anticipatory actions on key risks 

31 https://new-european-bauhaus.europa.eu/get-involved/use-compass_en  
32 Directive (EU) 2022/2557. OJL 333, 27.12.2022, p. 164–198 
33 COM(2023) 61. Recommendation OJ C 56, 15.2.2023, p.1. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-
content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52023DC0061  
34 COM(2024) 130.  

13 

 
 
 
by  the  Member  States  also  in  the  interest  of  fiscal  sustainability,  while  strengthening  EU 
disaster risk management, preparedness and response.  

3.4. Right preconditions for financing climate resilience 

Policymakers, investors and businesses need to understand the investment and protection needs 
and gaps, design targeted interventions based on their potential impact and urgency, engage risk 
owners and form long-term financing strategies. To effectively manage climate risks,  public 
spending  at  EU  and  national  level,  including  social  investments,  and  incentives  for  private 
investment should be designed in a way that makes preventing climate-related disruptions and 
damages the best choice economically. Compliance with State aid rules needs to be ensured. 
This implies: 

Ensuring that EU spending is resilient to climate change. The Commission will integrate climate 
adaptation considerations in the implementation of EU programmes and activities as part of the 
‘do  no  significant  harm’  principle  laid  down  in  the  Financial  Regulation  for  the  post  2027 
multiannual  financial  framework,  where  feasible  and  appropriate.  This  will  ensure  that  all 
relevant EU programmes contribute to climate resilience. 

Embedding climate resilience in public procurement. Public procurement accounts for 14% of 
EU GDP and needs to take climate risks int account. For infrastructure decisions in particular, 
this policy plays a key role in supporting climate resilience of assets and bidding companies’ 
awareness and knowledge of climate resilience. The Commission will consider climate risks as 
an element in case of a review of the regulatory framework for procurement. In parallel, it calls 
on  the  Member  States  to  take  account  of,  among  others,  climate  risks  when  including 
environmental sustainability  criteria  in  competitive tenders, for instance  through accelerated 
implementation of the provisions of the Net-Zero Industry Act35 concerning non-price criteria 
in the tender design.  

Mobilising  finance  to  build  resilience.  Attracting  and  facilitating  private  investment  is 
fundamental to successfully address climate risks and build climate resilience. Building on the 
work of the Climate Resilience Dialogue and other relevant work, the Commission will convene 
a temporary Reflection Group on mobilising Climate Resilience Financing to reflect on how to 
facilitate  climate resilience  finance. The  Reflection Group  will bring together key  industrial 
players and representatives of public and private financial institutions. It may also draw on the 
knowledge of  the European  Investment  Bank and the European  Insurance and Occupational 
Pensions Authority in the field of financing adaptation and resilience-building. It will map best 
practices and identify obstacles and enabling conditions for the financing of climate resilience. 
The  Commission  will  take  the  outcome  of  these  discussions  into  account  with  a  view  to 
bolstering finance for climate resilience.  

4.  Key EU actions in main impact clusters  

Climate risks  and EU policies are interconnected in  many ways.  Most EU policies already 
include decision-making processes that could take climate risks into account. The wealth 

35 COM(2023) 161 

14 

 
 
 
 
 
 
of evidence put forward in the EUCRA report will feed into these processes. This section 
sets out specific actions for selected impacted clusters which the Commission will take forward, 
in addition to the already ongoing existing work. 

4.1. Natural ecosystems 

Apart from sustaining biodiversity itself, natural ecosystems provide life-supporting services 
such as freshwater, food and biomaterial, carbon sequestration, soil and coastal erosion control, 
flood and drought prevention, cooling of densely populated urban areas. More than half of the 
world’s total GDP is estimated to be moderately or highly dependent on nature and biodiversity. 
Healthy  ecosystems  are  self-balancing,  but  ecosystems  can  also  rapidly  collapse  if  critical 
thresholds are crossed. The most immediate detrimental effect will be on to food security, local 
communities  and  those  economic  sectors  that  are  most  dependent  on  healthy  nature.  To 
maintain and restore the resilience of ecosystems and the services they provide, approximately 
30-50%  of  Earth’s  land,  freshwater  and  oceans  will  need  to  be  effectively  and  equitably 
preserved 36.   

Future-proofed nature-based solutions can be cost-effective and increase resilience and should 
be the first climate adaptation choice whenever possible. For effective management of climate 
risks,  ecosystems  need  to  be  protected  and  managed  comprehensively,  and  assessments  of 
wealth and economic activity should fully include natural capital37 using recent methodological 
advances.  Implementation  of  the  Birds  and  Habitats  Directives  and  the  development  of  the 
national restoration plans under the upcoming Nature Restoration Law should ensure synergies 
with  climate  resilience.  To  support  climate  change  adaptation  in  protected  areas,  the 
Commission will update the guidelines on Natura 2000 and climate change. 

More work is needed to prevent major forest disturbances and improve preparedness for them. 
The  Commission  will  use  the  UCPM  actions  to  promote  wildfire  risk  prevention,  use  the 
proposed regulations on a monitoring framework for resilient European forests and on forest 
reproductive  material;  and  consider  climate  pressures  when  estimating  the  potential 
contribution of carbon sinks to EU net zero targets.  

The Member States need to improve the health of marine ecosystems. The Commission calls 
on the Member States to make best use of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the Nature 
Restoration Law and the Marine Action Plan38 to increase the resilience and preserve diversity 
of all marine ecosystems to maintain their productive capacity to provide food, materials and 
ecosystem services. Actions under the EU Ocean and Waters Mission39 are contributing to a 
wide  range  of  such  solutions.  To  ensure  sustainable  fisheries  in  a  changing  climate,  the 
synergies between the common fisheries policy and environmental legislation, as put forward 
in  the  Fisheries  and  Oceans  Pact,  should  be  fully  exploited  to  ensure  food  security  and 
livelihoods for fishers and coastal communities. 

36 IPCC AR6. https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/  
37  Dasgupta,  P  (2021),  The  Economics  of  Biodiversity:  The  Dasgupta  Review,  London:  HM  Treasury; 
https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/changing-wealth-of-nations  
38 COM(2023) 102 final. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52023DC0102  
39 
calls/horizon-europe/eu-missions-horizon-europe/restore-our-ocean-and-waters_en  

https://research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/funding/funding-opportunities/funding-programmes-and-open-

15 

 
 
 
 
 
The  core  elements  of  a  climate-resilient  landscape  need  to  be  addressed  simultaneously  to 
preserve landscapes’ capacity to reduce the risk of drought, floods, storm surges, wildfires or 
erosion along  with delivering other  ecosystem  services.  Rural  areas  cover most of Europe’s 
land and a siloed approach to managing soil, water and forests in the same area has reached its 
limits. A comprehensive and integrated approach is needed to ensure that ecosystems over large 
areas can cope with the multiple threats. To support the best use of existing planning documents 
and  in  synergy  with  the  Member  States’  spatial  planning  and  nature  restoration  plans,  the 
Commission, working with the Member States, will draw up guidance on the development of 
resilient landscapes that can buffer the impacts of climate change.  

4.2. Water 

Water is a vital resource that is already under pressure in many parts of Europe due to structural 
mismanagement, unsustainable land use, hydro-morphological changes and pollution. Climate 
change is exacerbating these pressures and increasing water-related risks in the form of more 
frequent or prolonged droughts or extreme precipitation. These are set to deepen in the future 
with larger parts of Europe being affected by water stress, as well as a growing risk of mega-
droughts (spanning large regions and lasting several years), wildfires, increasing floods, and 
rising sea levels that heighten the risk of coastal floods and storm surges, coastal erosion and 
salt-water intrusion. 

The EUCRA emphasises that water-related risks cut across all the major sectors considered in 
this  Communication  and  that  severe  floods,  droughts  and  forest  fires  are  becoming  a  health 
threat  and  a  recurrent  cause  of  social,  environmental,  and  economic  losses.  These  risks  can 
manifest in multiple forms, some of which include droughts potentially affecting large areas for 
prolonged  periods,  with  negative  impacts  on  crop  production,  food  security,  drinking  water 
supplies and energy production or the usability of waterways and that compound the risk of 
wildfires; risks to critical infrastructure, economic activities and human health from flooding, 
and in general increased competition over water resources across sectors and uses, including 
potential  risk  of  conflicts  within  and  among  the  Member  States  over  transboundary  water 
resources. The EUCRA demonstrates that the costs of insufficient or delayed implementation 
of integrated water management will be unaffordable. Estimates value the costs of droughts to 
be €9 billion per year and those of floods to be more than EUR 170 billion in total since 1980.  

Protecting  and  restoring  the  water  cycle,  promoting  a  water-smart  EU  economy  and 
safeguarding  good  quality,  affordable  and  accessible  freshwater  supplies  to  all  is  crucial  to 
ensure  a  water-resilient  Europe.  Achieving  water  resilience  means  fostering  our  collective 
ability to  manage and use water in  a way that is  more agile given the rapidly changing  and 
partially  unpredictable  geo-political,  economic,  societal  and  environmental  developments. 
Water needs to  be managed, and human demand needs to  be adjusted to the new  and more 
scarce supply.  

Considering the fundamental role that water plays in sustaining life and as an economic input, 
the Commission will take stock of water issues comprehensively, building upon the findings of 
the ongoing assessments of River Basin and Flood Risk Management Plans, as well as of the 
marine Programmes of Measures put in place by the Member States and on that basis consider 
the need for action. 

16 

 
 
 
 
4.3. Health 

Climate change is impacting human health. Between 60,000 and 70,000 premature deaths were 
attributed  to  the  2022  heatwave  in  Europe  alone.  Projections  show  a  strong  net  increase  in 
temperature-related  mortality  rates  already  for  mid-century40.  Through  continuous  warming 
and extreme weather events, climate change can contribute to or aggravate non-communicable 
diseases, which are responsible for about two thirds of all deaths in the European region. The 
“Healthier Together – EU non-communicable diseases initiative”41supports the Member States 
in taking appropriate preventive action.  

Labour productivity will go down and working hours will be at risk of being lost unless effective 
adaptation measures are taken. Individual and regional vulnerability and the most appropriate 
measure depend on factors like levels of preparedness, degree of urbanisation, age structure, or 
concurrent  exposure  to  air  pollution.  As  acknowledged  in  the  Communication  on  a 
comprehensive approach to mental health42, the climate crisis severely impacts mental health.  

The incidence of climate-sensitive infectious diseases is set to increase, with diseases such as 
the West Nile virus, dengue and chikungunya becoming endemic in parts of Europe and food-
borne  and  water-borne  pathogens  spreading  more  easily.  However,  in  most  cases,  effective 
medical  countermeasures  to  respond  to  these  diseases  are  scarce  or  yet  to  be  developed. 
Extreme  weather  patterns  can  also  lead  to  proliferation  of  resistant  bacteria  and  more  gene 
transfer, resulting in an increase in infections with resistant bacteria and fungi.  

These and other risks will put additional pressure on the already strained health care systems, 
health  service  workers  and  health  budgets.  Primary  solutions  lie  in  policies  that  can  reduce 
vulnerabilities and limit human exposure. Health sector workers and buildings being directly 
exposed to climate risks should be managed adequately. To further strengthen its action, and 
put  in  practice  the  objectives  and  commitments  set  out  in  the  Budapest  and  COP28 
Declarations43 on climate and health, the Commission will: 

Step  up  measures  to  ensure  that  workers  exposed  to  climate  risks  are  adequately  protected. 
When reviewing occupational safety and health (OSH) legislation that protects workers from 
all occupational risks, including the risks related to increased ambient temperatures and heat 
stress, the Commission will consider the need for more action to protect workers on climate 
risks,  also  building  on  the  existing  guidance  and  tools44.  The  Commission  set  up  a  new 
stakeholder dialogue45.The European Agency for Safety  and Health at Work (EU-OSHA) is 

40 EXHAUSTION interactive tool: https://www.exhaustion.eu/ 
41 https://health.ec.europa.eu/non-communicable-diseases/healthier-together-eu-non-communicable-diseases-
initiative_en  
42 COM(2023) 298 final. https://health.ec.europa.eu/publications/comprehensive-approach-mental-health_en  
43 Declaration of the Seventh Ministerial Conference on Environment and Health 
(https://www.who.int/europe/publications/i/item/EURO-Budapest2023-6), COP28 UAE Declaration on Climate 
and Health (https://www.cop28.com/en/cop28-uae-declaration-on-climate-and-health) 
44 https://osha.europa.eu/en/oshnews/heat-work-guidance-workplaces  
45 Working Party on Climate Change and Occupational Safety and Health of the tripartite Advisory Committee on 
Health and Safety at Work (ACSH) 

17 

 
 
 
 
 
strengthening  foresight  on  the  climate-OSH  nexus46  and  will  launch  in  2025  a  project  to 
increase climate resilience at the workplaces. 

Enhance the European Climate and Health Observatory, which helps prepare local and national 
health systems for climate change, build additional capacity, strengthen monitoring and early 
warning  mechanisms,  train  and  educate  the  health  workforce,  and  promote  evidence-based 
adaptation solutions and healthcare interventions. 

Strengthen surveillance and response mechanisms for climate-related health threats through the 
implementation of Regulation on serious cross-border threats to health, by interlinking the Early 
Warning and Response System with other alert systems (such as for climate and weather alerts) 
to facilitate joined-up management of health risks. The new EU Health Task Force will support 
EU-level response to serious health threats, including climate-related events. 

Strengthen  cross-border  mobilisation  of medical  personnel  and  patient  transfer,  for  example 
through developing a framework to support the Member States with overwhelmed healthcare 
services.  

Secure access to and development of critical medical countermeasures. Rising temperatures and 
more  frequent  extreme  weather  events  can  disrupt  manufacturing  or  limit  access  to  raw 
materials. Also, climate-induced changes in disease patterns may lead to unexpected surges in 
demand for certain medicines, or create demand for entirely new products, straining existing 
supply chains or requiring investment in new supply chains. To reduce the vulnerabilities, the 
Commission  will  assess  the  relevant  risks  and  further  develop  strategic  stockpiles  for  key 
countermeasures. Under Horizon Europe and EU4Health, the Commission has been supporting 
development  of  new  vaccines  and  therapeutics  against  neglected  tropical  and  emerging 
infectious  diseases.  This  has,  for  instance,  enabled  recent  progress  on  a  vaccine  against 
chikungunya virus. 

4.4. Food 

Food supply in the EU is increasingly exposed to climate risks, from agricultural production 
notably  in  Southern  Europe,  fisheries  and  aquaculture,  to  food  processing  and  international 
supply chains. Climate change affects the four pillars of food security in the short, medium- 
and long-term: availability, access, utilisation and stability. It interacts with many other drivers 
of food security in multiple and cascading ways, e.g. water stress, excess nutrients, soil health, 
diets,  and  health.  Food  production  is  notably  at  risk  from  floods,  heatwaves,  droughts, 
increasing pest and disease pressures, as well as biodiversity loss, soil degradation and changes 
in fish migration.  

For farmers, heat will complicate outdoor work. Shifts in agroclimatic zones will put pressure 
on crop selection and increase the rate of crop failures, while input prices and global markets 
variability squeeze the bottom line. For fishers, the additional pressures from climate change, 
eutrophication and ocean acidification can lower fish stock productivity resulting in much lower 
catches and come on top of some overfished stocks. With livelihoods and the sustainability of 

46 Foresight study on “OSH implications of future climate change-related developments and crises” (launched in 
2024)  

18 

 
 
 
 
 
EU food production at risk, creating options for adaptation actions at the level of agricultural 
farms or fishing operations will not be enough and will have to be supplemented with adequate 
support  measures  for  the  transition  to  resilient  farming  and  fishing.  Such  support  measures 
should  also  ensure  that  healthy  and  sustainable  food  remains  affordable  and  accessible  for 
consumers, and should ensure sustainable incomes for farmers.  

While the EU food imports are not a major risk yet, concurrent crop failures in several world 
breadbasket  regions  or  in  major  fisheries  may  if  occurring  drive  up  EU  food  prices  (as  EU 
producers sell at global prices), and thus impact consumers’ purchasing power and jeopardise 
the food security and affordability of healthy diets for the poorest households in the EU. Also, 
while this is not yet systemic, food safety is already at higher risk from heat-induced and other 
pathogens.  

Technology progress, farm management improvements and continuous adaptation of farming 
practices  have  helped  short-term  climate  adaptation.  The  EU  adaptation  strategy  and  the 
common agricultural policy have enabled adaptation actions, but there is limited evidence of 
structural preparedness for climate-related disasters. In addition, a better use of genetic diversity 
and non-harmful  plant genetic resources for adaptation  and resilience to climate change can 
help farmers and land managers tackle climate risks. The proposal for a regulation on plants 
obtained  by  certain  new  genomic  techniques  and  their  food  and  feed47  can  support  such 
solutions. 

Futureproofing of EU food production will be a priority for the Commission. The Commission 
will  continue  to  work  with  the  Member  States  to  use  the  full  potential  of  the  common 
agricultural  policy  strategic  plans  to  improve  climate  resilience  and  a  wider  use  of  risk 
management  tools.  Since  soil  degradation  poses  a  major  threat  for  our  food  production,  the 
Commission, in cooperation with the Member States, will reinforce soil health monitoring. The 
contribution of farmers to the protection of ecosystem services should be better valued.  The 
Commission will also conduct a study on adaptation in agriculture, to be finalised by the end 
of 2025. 

The warming and acidification of the ocean, including the rise of marine heatwaves and areas 
of low oxygen levels, is already changing species composition, and affecting fish stocks as they 
move to deeper water and poleward. This will create mismatches between established quotas 
and real fishing opportunities. The common fisheries policy should integrate climate impacts. 
Fish  stock  forecasts  need  to  take  account  of  the  range  of  possible  future  effects  of  climate 
change and  fisheries management practices should  be resilient to  future  ecological  changes. 
The European Maritime, Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund updates should fully integrate climate 
risks in its support for sustainable fisheries and aquaculture practices that build resilience.  

4.5. Infrastructure and built environment  

Infrastructure assets are at significant risk from floods, wildfires, high temperatures and other 
extreme  events,  potentially  leading  to  vast  damage.  Loss  of  access  to  energy,  transport  and 
communications can quickly disrupt societies. Currently, there are no reliable assessments of 
how well EU infrastructure will be able to function in the changing climatic conditions. Critical 

47   COM(2023) 411 final 

19 

 
 
 
 
 
infrastructure  and  building  stock  are  aging  fast.  Reflecting  on  the  lack  of  knowledge  and 
perceived prohibitive costs, the Member States find it difficult to plan and embark on major 
infrastructure  adaptation  efforts,  even  if  damages  from  a  single  disaster  can  be  multiples  of 
available EU infrastructure funds. 

The  EU  objective  of  increasing  renovation  rates  and  decarbonising  the  economy  are 
opportunities to improve climate resilience. The design of the built environment determines the 
resilience  of  the  buildings  themselves,  and  its  inhabitants.  Co-benefits  of  climate  proofing 
residential  housing  in  terms  of  affordability,  a  healthier  living  environment,  and  improved 
energy efficiency should be maximised. In addition to strong horizontal oversight of systemic 
risks  linked  to  infrastructure  and  its  location  through  spatial  planning,  more  sector-specific 
solutions are needed.  

Infrastructure  standards  need  to  be  strengthened.  The  Commission  will  ask  the  European 
Standardisation  Organisations  (ESOs)  to  integrate  climate  adaptation  and  resilience 
considerations into European standards for the design of infrastructure with a life-cycle of more 
than 30 years, such  as  power  stations  or  railways.  In addition,  the  Commission  will ask the 
ESOs to develop new standards on climate services.  

The  foreseen  update  of  the  standards  (Eurocodes48)  of  buildings  which  sets  the  minimum 
requirements on structural design in the EU in 2026, will make it mandatory to consider the 
future climate hazards on structures of buildings. The Commission is performing pilot studies 
and will prepare guidance to the Member States on the use of freely available climatic datasets 
to define the expected climatic loading on their territory. 

The April 2024 New European Bauhaus festival is a key opportunity to engage in dialogue with 
different  parts  of  the  construction  industry,  to  promote  better  mainstreaming  of  climate 
adaptation and resilience in that sector.  

All transport infrastructure is at risk from climate change. Yet, there is an EU knowledge gap 
with  respect  to  the  resilience  of  European  transport  infrastructure  to  the  impacts  of  climate 
change in terms of risk exposure, adaptation needs and solutions, as well as investment needs 
to address them. The Commission will support climate risk assessments and climate proofing 
through its revised guidelines on the development of the Trans-European Transport Network 
(TEN-T). It has embarked on a study49 on the climate resilience of the TEN-T as a first step to 
address the identified knowledge gap and determine adaptation needs and investment priorities. 

Climate risk planning needs to be strengthened in the energy sector. Climate change results in 
increased risks for energy security, in particular increased risks of electricity disruption due to 
heat, wildfires, droughts, and floods affecting peak demand and impacting production, storage, 
transport  and  distribution.  Only  a  few  Member  States  have  included  in  their  draft  updated 
NECPs detailed plans to consider adaptation to climate change in the context of the resilience 
of their energy systems. The Commission will consider possibilities for better mainstreaming 
of climate risks,  for example in  the  context  of  the ongoing  review of the  Regulation  on the 
Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action. Building on the national preparedness 
plans in the electricity sector, the Commission will also consider initiating a dialogue on climate 

48 https://eurocodes.jrc.ec.europa.eu/2nd-generation/second-generation-eurocodes-what-new  
49 Schade, W., Khanna, A.A., Mader, S., Streif, M., Abkai, T., de Stasio, C., Thiery, W., Deidda, C., Maatsch, S., 
Kramer, H. (2023): Support study on the climate adaptation & cross-border investment needs to realize the TEN-
T network. Report on behalf of the European Commission (forthcoming). 

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risks with selected energy sector stakeholders, and invites interested actors (e.g., the electricity 
sector) to come forward with proposals. 

4.6. Economy 

Each climate change related disaster will put additional strain on the economy, through loss or 
productivity and life, direct damage, reduced growth potential and pressure on public budgets. 
When  the  investment  is  redirected  for  rebuilding  after  damages,  amount  available  for 
productive investment is reduced. The interactions between the different parts of the financial 
system are not well understood, and climate risks may push existing vulnerabilities over critical 
thresholds for these systems. Government budgets are the main source of coverage for these 
risks, but they are already strained by high debt levels. The implicit contingent liabilities from 
climate risks could jeopardise Member States’ fiscal stability and sustainability. The risks to 
the EU economy could be significant50.  

The  EU  economic  security  is  also  exposed  to  climate  risks  in  supply  chains,  notably  for 
pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. In view of the existing data and knowledge gaps, it is not 
excluded  that  climate-related  risks  are  currently  underpriced.  This  can  create  disorderly 
reactions on the market,  for example when extreme events occur or are likely to occur.  The 
insurance coverage of climate exposed assets and property is low in the EU, with significant 
variation between the Member States and climate-related perils and is likely to shrink further 
with  rising  premiums  as  climate-related  events  increase  in  frequency  and  severity.  There  is 
substantial  work  ongoing  on  the  various  sustainability  risks,  notably  via  the  EU  sustainable 
finance strategy, or the Climate Resilience Dialogue that aims to bridge the climate protection 
gap in insurance51.  

The EU has already taken major steps to mobilise global climate action and trade. The Coalition 
of Trade Ministers on Climate52, launched and led by the Union with Ecuador, Kenya and New 
Zealand reflects a growing recognition among governments of shared interests at the climate-
trade nexus to enhance the contribution that trade and trade policy can have towards climate 
action. The EU’s bilateral trade agreements can serve as important platforms to engage with 
trade partners on climate and environmental action53.  

Climate-related risks are a major hazard to the resilience of EU firms, notably SMEs. Climate 
risks affect  SMEs’ access to  finance, their  cost  of capital,  and their  ability to  repay debts54. 
Almost half of EU firms are concerned about natural hazards, yet less than a third of firms have 
or plan to  invest to  mitigate the impact  of natural  hazard risks.55 As set  out  in  the EU SME 
strategy, it is essential to support SMEs in understanding and mitigating environmental risks56. 

50 SWD(2024) 63 final. https://climate.ec.europa.eu/document/download/768bc81f-5f48-48e3-b4d4-
e02ba09faca1_en  
51 Report of the Climate Resilience Dialogue is expected for summer 2024. 
52 http://www.tradeministersonclimate.org/ 
53 COM(2022) 409 final. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52022DC0409  
54 Barbaglia, L., Fatica, S. and Rho, C., Flooded credit markets: physical climate risk and small business lending, 
European Commission, 2023, JRC136274. 
55 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202306_05~f5ec994b9e.en.html 
56 COM/2020/103 final. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/en/ALL/?uri=CELEX%3A52020DC0103  

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As  part  of  implementing  the  European  economic  security  strategy57,  Commission  will  also 
consider climate risks. The actions set out in the SME Relief Package58, which among others 
aim at making it easier for SMEs to access sustainable finance while minimising administrative 
burden, also help EU companies to maintain their competitive position and potentially create 
and lead the market development in segments that build climate resilience. This encompasses 
both  supporting  the  society  and  capturing  a  significant  share  in  the  global  marketplace  for 
climate resilience and risk management technologies and information systems. To improve the 
systemic  resilience  of  the  EU  supply  chains,  the  Commission  will  consider  the  potential  of 
screening for physical climate risks in the context of monitoring supply chain vulnerabilities. 

There is a clear need to strengthen fiscal sustainability. The provisional agreement on a new 
economic governance  framework is  expected to  strengthen fiscal  sustainability and promote 
growth through reforms and investments, not least those for common EU priorities such as the 
climate transition.59 Work is underway to develop the projection of climate impacts on debt 
sustainability.  As  part  of  the  provisional  agreement,  the  amendments  to  the  Directive  for 
National Budgetary Frameworks include climate-related reporting requirements in the national 
annual and multi-annual budgetary plans. These provisions cover past climate-related disaster 
loss data and estimates of fiscal risks from climate change. To improve and mainstream climate-
risk budgeting into national budgetary processes, the Commission stands ready to support the 
Member States in their exchange of best practices and to provide technical support and training. 
Work  is  underway  to  refine  the  estimates  on  adaptation  investment  needs60,  and  the 
Commission will also work with the Member States to fill the data gaps inter alia for estimating 
national adaptation investment needs. The Commission stands ready to support  the Member 
State  treasuries  seeking  to  exchange  on  their  role  in  the  coordination,  formulation  and 
implementation of adaptation policies.  

Financial market policies need to take a prudent approach to climate risks to safeguard financial 
stability. The EU sustainable finance strategy aims to make climate and other environmental 
risks more transparent  and  the EU financial system  safer. The Commission  will continue to 
ensure that all relevant risks are appropriately reflected in the prudential frameworks, e.g. in the 
recently agreed proposals on Solvency II and Capital Requirements Regulation, which provide 
the basis to embed climate risk in the banks and insurers’ frameworks. The Commission will 
ensure their swift implementation. 

5.  Next steps  

As part of the implementation of the EU adaptation strategy, this Communication stresses key 
actions  that the EU and  its  Member States  need to  take  to better manage  increasing  climate 
risks,  notably  to  implement  existing  policies  and  clarify  risk  ownership  in  governance 

57 JOIN(2023) 20 final. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52023JC0020  
58 COM/2023/535 final. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2023%3A535%3AFIN  
59 COM(2023) 240 final. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52023PC0240  
60 Extrapolating from single-country estimates to the EU level, the annual cost of climate change adaptation may 
range from EUR 15bn to EUR 64 bn per year (0.1-0.4 percent of EU GDP) to 2030, with a median estimate around 
EUR 21 bn ( World Bank (forthcoming, 2024). Investing in Resilience: Climate Adaptation Costing in a Changing 
World.  Phase  II  study  under  Economics  for  Disaster  Prevention  and  Preparedness:  Prioritizing  and  Financing 
Resilient Investments.). 

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processes. It does so to provide a robust and timely response to the clear and present danger of 
more climate disasters.  

The  Communication  underlines  the  need  for  decision-useful  evidence,  such  as  the  EUCRA 
report, the most recent temperature observations, progress reports, and information on the costs 
of  climate  damages.  It  stresses  the  need  to  fully  use  available  information  to  inform  policy 
choices across the sectors. In the coming years policymakers at all levels of governance should 
address climate adaptation proactively, using tools, technologies and other means that already 
exist. This requires concerted action at all levels and developing a clear pathway towards 
improving preparedness and resilience. 

While  this  Communication  focusses  on  action  in  the  European  Union,  it  also  provides  for 
exchanging  and sharing  experience and information with EU’s partner countries. The sector 
and action area coverage  of this document  broadly  align  with  the  climate adaptation  related 
decisions at the UNFCCC COP28 in Dubai. The Commission will proactively include relevant 
topics  in  bilateral  dialogues,  through  Green  Alliances  and  Green  Partnerships  as  well  as  in 
relevant UN and other multilateral fora (such as G7, G20, OECD, WEF, WTO). Moreover, the 
Commission will look into the possibility to organise an international symposium on managing 
Global Climate Risks in 2025, bringing together government representatives, financiers, and 
expert organisations around the world.  

The Commission will continue to work with the Member States, the public, businesses and 
other EU institutions to increase the resilience of EU society and economy. Together we 
can protect our people and prosperity. 

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