COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE EVALUATION of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys
Date: 2024-01-25
Institutions: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: EU Member State, EU candidate countries, EU programme, consumer survey, economic development, economic forecasting, economic indicator, economic survey

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   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 25.1.2024  SWD(2024) 28 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE EVALUATION     of  the         Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys {SWD(2024) 27 final}  
 
 
Executive summary 

In  this  Staff  Working  Document  (SWD),  Commission  staff  presents  its  views  on  the 
evaluation of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys 
(BCS Programme). The evaluation covers the period from the last comprehensive evaluation 
of the BCS Programme, in 2012, until 2021. Its aim is to assess the degree to which the BCS 
Programme  has  achieved  its  objectives  and  to  identify  ways  in  which  it  could  be  further 
improved.  

This  SWD  draws  upon  an  external  evaluation  study  prepared  by  Deloitte  and  DIW 
ECON, which is published at the same time. The main sources of evidence used to inform 
the  external  evaluation  report  included  (i)  a  thorough  desk-research  (focussing  on  previous 
evaluation  reports,  economic  analyses  using  the  survey  data  generated  by  the  BCS 
Programme,  etc.),  (ii)  a  quantitative  analysis  examining  how  well  the  survey  data  track 
economic developments in the Member States and candidate countries and (iii) a stakeholder 
consultation targeting the users, as  well as the producers of the data. The overall evaluation 
approach followed the principles of the European Commission  Better Regulation Guidelines 
and  assessed  the  effectiveness,  efficiency,  relevance,  coherence  and  EU  added  value  of  the 
programme. A Commission inter-service steering group oversaw the evaluation by providing 
information, expertise and quality assurance in line with evaluation standards. 

The  BCS  Programme  has  been  effective  in  providing  timely,  frequently  updated  and 
harmonised  data  for  economic  surveillance  in  the  EU  Member  States  and  candidate 
countries, as well as the EU and euro area (EA) as a whole. The data are widely used by 
academic  researchers  and  professional  economists  to  monitor  and  forecast  economic 
developments.  They  are  also  frequently  cited  in  the  media.  While  the  quality  of  the  data 
generated by the BCS Programme is undisputed, there is room for improvement in respect of 
their  dissemination,  namely  in  terms  of  enhanced  documentation  of  the  programme’s 
methodology and the ways in which the survey data can be downloaded. 

The programme has been efficient, with its substantial benefits to a wide user-base in all 
likelihood  significantly exceeding  the  annual  cost  of  the  programme.  100%  of  the  users 
participating  in  a  dedicated  online  survey  agreed  that  the  BCS  data  constitute  an  essential 
input  for  monitoring  and  forecasting  economic  developments  in  their  country.  Moreover, 
there does not seem to be scope for replacing the survey data by cheaper indicators based on 
‘big data’ approaches (automatic extraction of large quantities of website data for analysis), as 
the  latter  come  with  too  many  technical  limitations.  At  the  level  of  the  financial 
administration  of  the  BCS  Programme,  the  Commission’s  national  partner  institutes,  which 
carry out the actual surveys with the Commission’s co-funding, call for further simplification 
of the associated paperwork and more efficient ways of communicating with the Commission 
on financial/administrative matters. 

The  programme  has a high degree of coherence across  countries and economic sectors 
surveyed.  Besides  a  number  of  sector-specific  questions,  each  sectoral  survey  features  a 
question  on  price  and  employment  expectations,  as  well  as  developments  in  output.  In 
general, the harmonised survey questions are correctly translated into the national languages 

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and  the  few  deviations  are  for  idiomatic  reasons.  In  the  context  of  other  EU,  as  well  as 
comparable private survey programmes, the BCS Programme is a useful complementary data 
source,  focussing  on  different  survey  questions  and  offering  a  broader  country  coverage,  as 
well  as  a  more  granular  sub-sectoral  breakdown  of  results.  By  contrast,  the  Commission’s 
Financial  Services  Sector  Survey  (FSSS)  turned  out  to  provide  little  additional  information 
compared  to  the  bank  lending  survey  of  the  European  Central  Bank  and  was  therefore 
discontinued in March 2023. 

The EU value added of the programme is that it ensures a harmonised set of questions 
which  is  asked  across  the  EU  Member  States  and  candidate  countries.  The  harmonised 
questions  allow  to  meaningfully  compare  economic  developments  across  countries  and 
generate EU and euro-area wide indicators.  

The  BCS  Programme  remains  relevant  in  spite  of  a  number  of  potentially  competing 
data sources having emerged in recent years.  In particular, EUROSTAT’s introduction of 
an early, preliminary release of EU/EA GDP figures (the so-called preliminary flash estimate) 
did not render the BCS data obsolete, as they continue being more timely and provide a (sub-) 
sectoral  breakdown.  According  to  the  stakeholder  consultation,  the  harmonised  survey 
questions  of  the  BCS  Programme  focus  on  the  most  important  economic  concepts  and  the 
monthly frequency of the programme is appropriate. The programme could be rendered even 
more relevant by extending its coverage to occasional ad hoc questions on topical issues and 
allowing for additional breakdowns of the survey results.  

The evaluation and, in particular, the feedback received in the stakeholder consultation, 
allow  drawing  a  number  of  ‘lessons  learned’  which  could  be  acted  upon  in  the  future. 
These relate to the way in which the BCS data are disseminated, the administrative/financial 
procedures the survey institutes need to comply with to receive EU co-financing, as well as 
the coverage of the programme in terms of questions asked and the available breakdowns of 
the results. 

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