Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE) : bank lending survey : second half of 2023.
Date: 2023-12-20
Institutions: European Investment Bank
Subjects: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, bank, banking, banking policy, banking system, central bank, cross-border cooperation, economic survey, financial market, loan, market economy, private sector, report

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ECONOMICS – REGIONAL STUDIES

Central, Eastern and  
South-Eastern Europe (CESEE)
Bank Lending Survey
Second half of 2023

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Central, Eastern and  
South-Eastern Europe (CESEE)
Bank Lending Survey
Second half of 2023

CESEE Bank Lending Survey – H2 2023 – Autumn Edition

© European Investment Bank, 2023

Coordination and management: Matteo Ferrazzi
Editors: Matteo Ferrazzi and Debora Revoltella

Chapter authors
Regional overview: Matteo Ferrazzi
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Romania: Rozalia Pal
Bulgaria: Atanas Kolev
Czech Republic and Slovakia: Jochen Schanz
Hungary: Peter Harasztosi
Kosovo*, North Macedonia and Serbia: Pietro Dallari
Poland: Marcin Wolski

Data, layout and statistics
Rafal Banaszek

Acknowledgements
This survey was developed in the context of the Vienna Initiative. The results were discussed and approved by the Vienna Initiative 
Steering Committee and are presented at an aggregate level in the Vienna Initiative Deleveraging and Credit Monitoring Report. The 
European Investment Bank (EIB) designed, conducted and managed the survey. The Bank wishes to thank participating banks for their 
contributions to the survey and all members of the Vienna Initiative and its steering committee for their comments and support in 
developing the survey.

EIB Economics Department
The department’s mission is to provide economic analyses and studies to support the Bank in its operations, positioning, strategy and 
policy. Director of Economics Debora Revoltella heads the department, which comprises around 40 economists and assistants.

economics@eib.org
www.eib.org/economics

Disclaimer
The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the EIB or its shareholders. 
The authors and administrators of the survey endeavoured to ensure the quality of the analysis, the representativeness of the survey 
and the reliability of market players’ assessments and expectations. However, they are not responsible for any errors and omissions in 
responses to the survey or for any consequences these may have.

For further information on the EIB’s activities, please consult our website, www.eib.org. You can also contact our InfoDesk, info@eib.org.

Published by the European Investment Bank.
Printed on FSC® Paper.

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status and it is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.

pdf:

QH-BQ-23-002-EN-N ISBN 978-92-861-5622-9 ISSN 2600-1500

doi:10.2867/98559

Table of Contents 

Introduction to the survey .................................................................................................................................................  

Regional overview .................................................................................................................................................................  

1 

5 

Albania ......................................................................................................................................................................................  

19 

Bosnia and Herzegovina .....................................................................................................................................................  

25 

Bulgaria .....................................................................................................................................................................................  

31 

Croatia .......................................................................................................................................................................................  

37 

Czech Republic .......................................................................................................................................................................  

43 

Hungary ....................................................................................................................................................................................  

49 

Kosovo .......................................................................................................................................................................................  

55 

North Macedonia ...................................................................................................................................................................  

61 

Poland ........................................................................................................................................................................................  

67 

Romania ....................................................................................................................................................................................  

73 

Serbia .........................................................................................................................................................................................  

79 

Slovakia .....................................................................................................................................................................................  

85 

Annex 

Non-performing loan (NPL) figures .................................................................................................................  

91 

Questionnaire .........................................................................................................................................................  

93 

 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Survey introduction 

Introduction to the survey 

The CESEE Bank Lending Survey 

The Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE) Bank Lending Survey was developed in the context of 
the Vienna Initiative 2.01 and has been endorsed by the various participating institutions as an instrument for: 

-  monitoring cross-border banking activities and deleveraging in the region; 
-  better understanding the determinants and constraints of credit growth; 
-  gaining insights into the business strategies and market expectations of cross-border banks. 

Target groups: international banks active in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (interviewed at the group 
level); subsidiaries of those banking groups and local banks (interviewed at the single-entity level). 

Countries covered: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Kosovo, North 
Macedonia,  Poland,  Romania,  Serbia  and  Slovakia.  Details  for  Slovenia  and  Ukraine  are  not  presented  on  a 
standalone basis because of the low number of banks operating in these countries. Russia and Belarus are outside 
the scope of the survey. 

Frequency: semi-annual (March and September). 

Autumn 2023 survey wave: conducted during September 2023. In the following, “last six months” refers to the 
period between April 2023 and September 2023, and “next six months” refers to the period between October 2023 
and March 2024. 

Participating banks: the latest survey involved 12 international groups operating in Central, Eastern and South-
Eastern  Europe  and  70 local  subsidiaries  and  independent  domestic  players.  It  is  highly  representative  of 
international groups active in the region and of local market conditions, as survey participants collectively represent 
50% of local banking assets. 

The  survey  investigates  the  strategies  of  major  international  banks  operating  in  the  region  and  their  local 
subsidiaries,  taking  into  account  the  particular  regional  characteristic  that  many  banks  are  foreign-owned.  The 
survey  also  covers  relevant  domestic  players  in  specific  local  markets,  aiming  to  better  understand  market 
conditions and expectations. 

The  survey  is  a  unique  instrument  for  monitoring  banking  sector  trends  and  challenges  in  Central,  Eastern  and 
South-Eastern Europe. It complements domestic bank lending surveys by enabling comparison between countries, 
and offers the unique feature of specifically addressing the parent/subsidiary nexus. The survey also complements 
data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) concerning the exposure of cross-border banks. 

The  survey  is  administered  by  the  European  Investment  Bank  (EIB)  under  a  confidentiality  agreement  with  the 
individual participating banks. It is addressed to those banks’ senior officials. Most questions have backwards and 
forwards-looking components, respectively covering the last six months and expectations for the next six months. 

Survey questionnaire: the complete survey questionnaire is presented in the Annex. The survey is divided into two 
sections,  the  first  addressed  to  international  groups  and  the  second  to  domestic  banks  and  international 
subsidiaries. 

1 The Vienna Initiative is a forum for decision making and coordination which brings together all the relevant public and private 
sector stakeholders of EU-based cross-border banks active in Central, East and South-East Europe (central banks and regulators; 
commercial banks; international financial institutions). For more information on the Vienna Initiative, see: Vienna Initiative 
(eib.org) and Vienna Initiative (vienna-initiative.com). 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Survey introduction 

The first section investigates international banks’ strategies, restructuring plans, access to funding and deleveraging 
at the global and group levels. Its questions cover the long-term strategic approaches adopted for Central, Eastern 
and South-Eastern Europe, the profitability of regional operations, and the groups’ exposure to the region. 

The second section investigates the main determinants of local banking conditions. Among the supply conditions, 
attention is given to credit standards and credit terms and conditions, as well as various factors that may cause them 
to change. Credit standards are the internal guidelines or criteria for a bank’s loan policy, while credit terms and 
conditions are the specific obligations included in a loan contract, such as the interest rate, collateral requirements 
and maturity. 

One set of questions assesses the underlying factors affecting the bank’s credit standards. Factors are clustered into 
domestic and international components. Examples of domestic factors are the local market outlook, the local bank 
outlook and access to funding, changes in local regulations, and local bank capital constraints and non-performing 
loans  (NPLs).  The  international  factors  include,  for  example,  the  group  outlook,  global  market  outlook, 
EU regulations, group capital constraints and group non-performing loans. 

Demand  for  loans  is  investigated  by  considering  loan  applications.  Various  aspects  of  the  financing  needs  of 
companies and households are examined, among the elements potentially affecting loan demand. For companies, 
the survey covers fixed investment, inventories and working capital, corporate restructuring and debt restructuring. 
For  households, 
it  considers  housing  market  prospects,  consumer  confidence  and  non-housing-related 
consumption expenditure. 

Most of the questions on supply and demand are classified into two borrower sectors — households and companies 
— with subsectors also considered where relevant. For example, the survey investigates developments for small 
and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and large corporates, as well as different types of credit lines and loans in the 
household sector, such as consumer credit and loans for house purchases. Maturity and currency dimensions are 
also explored. 

The survey includes questions on credit quality and funding conditions for banks in the CESEE region, specifically 
covering  non-performing  loan  ratio  developments  in  the  retail  and  corporate  subsectors.  It  also  investigates 
aggregate  access  to  funding  and  the  funding  conditions  for  an  extensive  list  of  funding  sources,  including 
intragroup, retail and corporate, international financial institutions (IFIs) and wholesale. 

Most  of  the  survey  responses  are  presented  as  net  percentages  —  in  other  words,  as  positive  minus  negative 
responses (excluding neutral answers) — irrespective of the size of the increase or decrease. For instance, regarding 
change in loan demand over the last six months, the net percentage is the difference between responses reporting 
an increase and responses reporting a decrease. This is an oft-cited indicator, and its barometer function helps to 
detect potential drifts and trends among survey respondents. Answers are not weighted by the size of participating 
banks. 

2 

 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Survey introduction 

Glossary  

CESEE: Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe 

IFI: International financial institution 

NPL: Non-performing loan 

SME: Small and medium-sized enterprise 

AL: Albania 

BA: Bosnia and Herzegovina 

BG: Bulgaria 

HR: Croatia 

CZ: Czech Republic 

HU: Hungary 

KS: Kosovo 

MK: North Macedonia 

PL: Poland 

RO: Romania 

SK: Slovakia 

SR: Serbia 

3 

 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Regional overview 

Regional overview 

The tightening of credit supply that began in 2022 is not over, but the large supply-demand 
gap seen in previous six-month periods (when demand was resilient but supply tightened) is 
expected to diminish. More banks than before say they want to expand selectively in the 
region, but they report deteriorated profitability. 

Summary 

International banking group strategies: Most parent banks in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe 
(CESEE)  countries  have  maintained  their  level  of  exposure  in  the  last  six  months.  Some  mergers  and 
acquisitions activity took place among major players in Serbia and Romania. When asked about their long-
term strategies, cross-border banking groups signalled they wanted to “selectively expand” (50%, up from 
45% in the last round and 30% in the round before that) or maintain the same level of operations in the 
region (40%). Market potential in the region is seen as medium in most cases: banks are more optimistic 
about Czech Republic and Romania, more pessimistic about Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, banks say 
profitability compared to overall group operations deteriorated significantly since the previous survey 
round, with more than 50% of banks now signalling lower profitability in Albania, Croatia, Hungary, Poland 
and Romania.  

The  results  of  the  CESEE  Bank  Lending  Survey,  which  collected  data  in  September  2023,  also  help  to 
disentangle the credit demand and supply trends in the region (the willingness of clients to borrow, and 
of banks to extend credit to their clients). When looking at the local market, credit demand from bank 
clients  has  remained  resilient  and  is  expected  to 
improve  slightly.  Fixed  investments  and  retail, 
the  housing  market,  contributed 
especially 
negatively.  However,  credit  needs 
fixed 
investments  are  expected  to  resume.  Credit 
demand  is  expected  to  remain  relatively  strong 
(with Hungary and Poland as exceptions), despite 
the  expected  continued  weakness  on  the  retail 
side.  

Figure 1 Banking outlook in CESEE (in %) 

Access to funding

Demand

for 

Supply

NPL

The  tightening  of  credit  supply,  which  began  in 
the  first  months  of  2022  (affected  by  the  war  in 
Ukraine, inflation, and higher rates), is not yet over. 
Credit supply is expected to remain weak or neutral 
in  almost  all  countries  (except  for  Albania).  The 
large  supply-demand  gap  of  the  last  few  years 
(when demand was resilient but supply tightened) 
is expected to diminish. 

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Note: All values are net percentages. Supply/demand: Positive 
values denote increasing (easing) demand (supply). Access to 
funding: Positive values indicate increased access to funding. 
NPL: Negative values indicate increasing non-performing loan 
ratios. 

funding 

The  positive  access  to 
subsidiaries in the region is expected to remain in place, driven especially by retail and corporate funding. 
The anticipated deterioration of credit quality did not materialise in the last six months. However, banks 
again  expect  an  increase  in  non-performing  loans  (NPLs),  affecting  the  retail  and  corporate  sectors  in 
almost all countries (except for Albania). 

trend 

for 

5 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Regional overview 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — parent bank level  

Parent banks in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe broadly maintained their positions 
in the region. Some mergers and acquisitions activity took place among major banks in Serbia 
and Romania. Following a long deleveraging trend, one-third of banks — the largest share in 
a decade — predict that the loan to deposit ratio will increase. 

Parent banks maintained their stance and their business in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe over 
the last six months. Around one-third of banks (more than in the previous survey round) said they sold 
some assets, or some branches (around 20%), or restructured their activities (20%) in the last six months. 
These  activities  were  more  common  over  the  past  decade  (2013-2023,  see  Figure 2).  The  Serbian  and 
Romanian  banking  markets  were  affected  by  some  extraordinary  operations:  in  March  2023,  the  Greek 
bank Eurobank sold its Serbian subsidiary (for €280 million) to AIK Banka, which became the second-largest 
banking  group  in  Serbia.  In  October  2023,  UniCredit,  one  of  the  largest  banking  groups  in  the  region, 
announced that it would merge its Romanian subsidiary with the newly acquired Alpha bank in Romania 
(for  €300 million),  becoming  the  third-largest  lender  in  Romania.  In  September  2023,  Intesa  Sanpaolo 
secured approval from Russia to sell or dispose of its assets in the country. Some major banking groups 
with a strong foothold in the regional markets still have a presence in Russia (Russia, Belarus and Ukraine 
are outside the scope of the survey).  

Group-level  deleveraging  —  lowering  the  loan-to-deposit  ratio  — was  significant  before  2017  but  had 
already slowed considerably in recent years. More than one-third of banks (the largest share in a decade) 
now predict that the ratio will increase (Figure 3). 

Figure 2 

Strategic operations to 
increase capital ratio (in %) 

          Figure 3  Deleveraging: loan-to-deposit 

ratio (expectations over the next 
six months) (in %) 

Raising
capital on the
market

Sale of assets

Sale of
branches of
activities

State
contribution
to capital

Strategic
restructuring

Last Next

Last Next

Last Next

Last Next

Last Next

100
80
60
40
20
0

Yes

No

Yes-2013-2023

100

80

60

40

20

0

Decrease

Stable

Increase

3
1
0
2

4
1
0
2

5
1
0
2

6
1
0
2

7
1
0
2

8
1
0
2

9
1
0
2

0
2
0
2

1
2
0
2

2
2
0
2

3
2
0
2

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: “Last” indicates the last six months (April 2023 to 
September 2023). “Next” indicates the next six months 
(October 2023 to March 2024). See Question A.Q2 in the 
Annex. 

Note: See Question A.Q4 in the Annex. 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Regional overview 

Access  to  funding  at  the  group  level  remained  benign  over  the  last  six  months,  thanks  to 
sustained  improvements  especially  in  retail  funding,  but  less  favourable  compared  to  the 
period  2019-2022.  The  funding  situation  at  the  group  level  is  expected  to  improve 
meaningfully during the next six months.  

Banking groups’ overall access to funding remained positive, similarly to the previous period. Corporate 
funding  (or  the  collection  of  retail  deposits)  was  one  of  the  major  drivers.  However,  funding  from  the 
central  banks  was  strongly  reduced  (Figure 4a),  with  negative  contributions  also  from  interbank  and 
international financial institution (IFI) funding. 

Over  the  next  six  months,  banking  groups  expect  the  current  funding  environment  to  improve 
significantly,  driven  by  most  factors,  especially  retail  and  corporate  funding,  while  central  bank 
contribution will again be lower.  

Figure 4a 

Access to funding conditions 
(in %) 

Figure 4b 

Total access to funding 
conditions (in %) 

Total

Corp.

Retail

IFIs

Interbank

Central
Bank

Wholesale
Debt

100

80

60

40

20

0

Last six months

Next six months

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive 
values indicating increased access to funding. See 
Question A.Q3 in the Annex. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive 
values indicating increased access to funding. See 
Question A.Q3 in the Annex. 

Cross-border  groups’  exposure  to  Central,  Eastern  and  South-Eastern  European  banking 
markets  displayed  a  neutral  trend  over  the  last  six  months,  contrary  to  more  positive 
expectations  expressed  in  the  previous  survey  round.  Most  of  banks  (82%)  expect  their 
exposure to remain neutral in the next six months. 

The total exposure of groups to Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe did not increase (Figure 5b), 
contrary to optimistic expectations in the previous survey round. Most banks (64%) maintained the same 
level of exposure to the region (in terms of intragroup funding to the subsidiaries, and capital) in the last 
six months, while 18% reduced exposure and 18% increased it (Figure 5a, left).  

For the next six months, banks expect an overall neutral stance towards the banking markets in the region: 
9% of the international banking groups plan to increase their exposure in the region (compared to 27% in 
the previous survey round), 9% to reduce their exposure, and the large majority (82%) suggest they will be 
happy  to  maintain  their  current  level  of  exposure.  Still,  9%  of  banks  suggest  they  might  reduce  their 
exposure. Capital and intragroup funding are also expected to remain stable for around 80-90% of banks. 

7 

 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Regional overview 

Figure 5a 

Groups’ total exposure to Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe 

Groups' total exposure to CESEE

Exposure to subsidiaries
Intragroup funding

18%

64%

18%

9%

82%

9%

Last six months

Next six months

Reduce exposure
Maintain the same level of exposure
Expand exposure

18%

64%

18%

Last six months

Capital

91%

9%
Next six months

73%

27%

82%

18%

Last six months

Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: Cross-border operations involving countries in the region. See Question A.Q8 in the Annex. 

Figure 5b 

Groups’ total exposure to Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (in %) 

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: Cross-border operations involving countries in the region. The chart shows net percentages, with negative values denoting 
decreased exposure. See Question A.Q8 in the Annex. 

8 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Regional overview 

Regarding long-term strategies for regional operations, banking groups are leaning towards 
expansion (50% versus 45% in the previous survey round) or stability (40%). Their view on 
profitability, compared to overall group operations, deteriorated in various countries.  

When  asked  about  their  long-term  strategy,  cross-border  banking  groups  signal  that  they  want  to 
selectively expand (50%, up from 45% in the previous survey round and 30% in the round before that — 
see Figure 6) or at least maintain the same level of operations in the region (40%). Less than 10% of banking 
groups plan to selectively reduce activities in the region. 

Parent banks see market potential in the region as medium in most cases. They are more optimistic about 
Czech Republic and Romania (more than 60% signalling high market potential), more pessimistic about 
Bosnia and Herzegovina (50% signalling low market potential) and their view about the Albanian, Croatian, 
Serbian and Slovakian banking markets improved (see Additional CESEE regional data, A.4, at the end of 
the  regional  overview).  Similarly,  they  perceive  their  overall  market  positioning  and  the  scale  of  their 
operations as mainly optimal or satisfactory. Only some 20-30% of banks — in Croatia, Czech Republic and 
Romania — assess their positioning as weak (see Additional CESEE regional data, A.5). 

Most regional subsidiaries have higher profitability — in terms of return on assets (adjusted for cost of 
risk) and return on equity (adjusted for cost of equity) — than the overall group, especially in many Western 
Balkan countries, such as Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also in Bulgaria (see 
Additional regional CESEE data, A.6 and A.7). However, their view on profitability deteriorated significantly 
since the previous survey round, with more than 50% of banks now signalling lower profitability in various 
countries (Albania, Croatia, Hungary, Poland and Romania) compared to overall group operations.  

Figure 6 

Group-level long-term strategies (beyond 12 months) in Central, Eastern and South-
Eastern Europe (in %) 

Reduce operations

Selectively reduce operations

Mantain the same level of
operations via subsidiaries

Selectively expand operations
in certain countries

Expand operations

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 
Note: See Question A.Q5 in the Annex. 

2023-H2

2013-2022

9 

 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Regional overview 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — local banks/subsidiaries 

Subsidiaries  and  local  banks  in  Central,  Eastern  and  South-Eastern  Europe  report  slightly 
improving credit demand, while supply conditions remained weak over the last six months.  

In the next six months, credit demand is expected to improve: Demand will likely be driven by 
companies but remain very weak on the retail side (including mortgages). Supply conditions 
are expected to remain rather weak, especially because of the retail sector.  

Credit demand (indicating clients’ willingness to borrow from banks) remained healthy during the last six 
months but it had been gradually weakening since 2021-22 (Figure 7). Like in the previous survey round, 
fixed  investments  and  retail  components,  especially  the  housing  market,  contributed  negatively  (see 
Additional CESEE regional data, A.1), and credit demand was again driven by corporate liquidity needs (for 
inventories and working capital, especially).  

Credit  needs  for  fixed  investments  are  expected  to  resume  in  the  coming  months,  especially  for  large 
corporates  (see  Additional  CESEE  regional  data,  A.2).  This  is  expected  to  keep  credit  demand  relatively 
strong (except in Hungary and Poland), despite anticipated weakness on the retail side, which will affect 
the housing market and consumer segments.  

Credit  supply  conditions  (representing  banks’ 
willingness  to  extend  credit)  tightened  again 
over the last six months (Figure 7). The tightening 
began in the first months of 2022, likely because 
of the war in Ukraine, inflation, higher rates, and 
economic  slowdowns,  and  it  is  not  yet  over.  All 
business  segments  have  been  affected  by  tight 
supply conditions, especially small and medium-
sized enterprises (SMEs).  

Credit  supply  conditions  are  expected 
to 
deteriorate  again  over  the  next  six  months,  but 
are gradually moving to a more neutral situation 
(see  Additional  CESEE  regional  data,  A.3).  The 
large supply-demand gap experienced in the last 
few  years  (when  demand  remained  strong  but 
supply tightened) may be reduced again. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Total supply and demand: past, 
current, and expected 
developments (in %) 

Figure 7 

Supply (Last six months)
Supply (Next six months)

Demand  (Last six months)
Demand (Next six months)

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: All values are net percentages. Positive values denote 
increasing  (easing)  demand  (supply).  Diamonds  represent 
expectations from previous rounds of the survey; lines show 
actual values. See Questions B.Q1 and B.Q5 in the Annex. 

10 

 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Regional overview 

The main causes of tighter supply conditions during the past six months were the local market 
outlook and local and EU regulations, while credit quality was not a major concern in the local 
market.   

The drivers of supply conditions are not expected to change much in the next six months, but 
credit quality in the local market is expected to deteriorate too.  

Domestically and internationally, most factors contributed to the worsening of supply conditions over the 
last six months, with particularly negative contributions from the local market outlook, EU regulation and 
local regulation. 

Banking groups expect supply conditions to remain weak over the next six months, for similar reasons as 
in the past six months, but also because of concerns over future credit quality in the local market. Group 
outlook and the global market outlook do not raise major concerns.  

Figure 8  

Factors contributing to supply conditions (credit standards) (in %) 

Domestic Factors

International Factors

Local
market
outlook

Local bank
outlook

Local bank
funding

Local bank
capital
constraints

Change in
local
regulation

Local NPL
figures

Group
outlook

Global
market
outlook

Group
funding

EU
regulation

Group
capital
constraints

Group NPL
figures

20

0

-20

-40

-60

of local bank funding
Domestic

International

Last six months

Next six months

2013

20

0

-20

-40

-60

20

10

0

-10

-20

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with negative values representing a negative contribution to supply. See Question B.Q4 
in the Annex. 

11 

 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Regional overview 

Access to funding was extremely favourable for Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European 
banking subsidiaries (even stronger than before), supported mostly by corporate and retail 
funding. It is expected to remain solid over the next six months. 

Easy access to corporate and retail deposits supported benign funding conditions over the last six months. 
Access to intragroup and international financial institution (IFI) funding improved slightly. 

Banking groups expect funding conditions to remain positive over the next six months (Figure 9), though 
slightly less than before. Corporate and (especially) retail deposits will be the main drivers. 

Figure 9  

Access to funding for subsidiaries in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (in 
%) 

A. Trends in total funding conditions (shaded bar 
= expectations) 

B. Breakdown of funding conditions: results from 
the latest survey 

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

LT  (more than 1 year)

ST  (less than 1 year)

Corporate funding

Retail funding

IFIs' funding

Intragroup funding

Total funding

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Last six months

Next six months

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values representing an easing of access to funding. LT is long-term and ST is 
short-term. See Question B.Q9 in the Annex. 

Credit quality improved again over the last six months. Once again, the deterioration of 
credit quality predicted in the three previous survey rounds did not materialise. However, 
given the weaker economic outlook and higher interest rates, banks again expect an 
increase in non-performing loans over the next six months. 

Credit quality continued to improve following the COVID-19-related deterioration in 2020-21 (mitigated 
by various policy measures), as Figure 10 illustrates. During the last six months, credit quality improved 
further for the retail and corporate segments. (The banking sector’s non-performing loans as a percentage 
of total loans provided by central banks can be seen in the Annex of the report.) 

However, amid the uncertain economic outlook (slower growth, high interest rates), banks again expect a 
deterioration  in  credit  quality  over  the  next  six  months,  affecting  both  retail  and  corporate  loans. 
Expectations are negative for Bulgaria, Hungary, Kosovo, Serbia and Slovakia, and positive only for Albania. 
Credit quality is expected to remain neutral in the other countries in the region.  

12 

 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Regional overview 

Figure 10  

Non-performing loan ratios (in %) 

Developments over time 

Latest survey round (Autumn 2023) 

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

Total

Corporate

Retail

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Last six months

Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with negative values indicating deteriorating credit quality (in other words, increasing 
non-performing loan ratios). See Question B.Q8 in the Annex. 

13 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Regional overview 

Additional CESEE regional data 

A.1 

Factors affecting demand for credit (in %) 

Loans to enterprises

Households

Fixed
investments

Inventories and
working capital

M&A and corporate
restructuring

Debt
restructuring

Housing market
prospects

Consumer
confidence

Non-housing related
consumption
expenditure

25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25

25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25

Last six months

Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to demand conditions. M&A refers 
to mergers and acquisitions. See Question B.Q7 in the Annex. 

A.2 

Demand for loans or credit lines — client breakdown (in %) 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

Last six months

Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating increasing demand. See Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

14 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Regional overview 

A.3 

Credit supply (credit standards) — client breakdown (in %) 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchases

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

Last six months

Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with negative values indicating tighter supply conditions. See Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

15 

 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Regional overview 

A.4 

Market potential 

d
n
a
a
i
n
s
o
B

a
n
i
v
o
g
e
z
r
e
H

a
i
n
a
b
A

l

a
i
r
a
g
u
B

l

a
i
t
a
o
r
C

h
c
e
z
C

c
i
l

b
u
p
e
R

y
r
a
g
n
u
H

o
v
o
s
o
K

h
t
r
o
N

a
i
n
o
d
e
c
a
M

d
n
a
l

o
P

a
i
n
a
m
o
R

a
i
b
r
e
S

a
i
k
a
v
o

l
S

a
i
n
e
v
o

l
S

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Low

Medium

High

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

A.5 

Market positioning 

d
n
a
a
i
n
s
o
B

a
n
i
v
o
g
e
z
r
e
H

a
i
n
a
b
A

l

a
i
r
a
g
u
B

l

a
i
t
a
o
r
C

h
c
e
z
C

c
i
l

b
u
p
e
R

y
r
a
g
n
u
H

o
v
o
s
o
K

h
t
r
o
N

a
i
n
o
d
e
c
a
M

d
n
a
l

o
P

a
i
n
a
m
o
R

a
i
b
r
e
S

a
i
k
a
v
o

l
S

a
i
n
e
v
o

l
S

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Weak

Niche player

Satisfactory

Optimal

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

16 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Regional overview 

A.6 

Return on assets (adjusted for cost of risk) compared to overall group operations 

d
n
a
a
i
n
s
o
B

a
n
i
v
o
g
e
z
r
e
H

a
i
n
a
b
A

l

a
i
r
a
g
u
B

l

a
i
t
a
o
r
C

h
c
e
z
C

c
i
l

b
u
p
e
R

y
r
a
g
n
u
H

o
v
o
s
o
K

h
t
r
o
N

a
i
n
o
d
e
c
a
M

d
n
a
l

o
P

a
i
n
a
m
o
R

a
i
b
r
e
S

a
i
k
a
v
o

l
S

a
i
n
e
v
o

l
S

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

Lower

Equal

Higher

A.7 

Return on equity (adjusted for cost of equity) compared to overall group operations 

d
n
a
a
i
n
s
o
B

a
n
i
v
o
g
e
z
r
e
H

a
i
n
a
b
A

l

a
i
r
a
g
u
B

l

a
i
t
a
o
r
C

h
c
e
z
C

c
i
l

b
u
p
e
R

y
r
a
g
n
u
H

o
v
o
s
o
K

h
t
r
o
N

a
i
n
o
d
e
c
a
M

d
n
a
l

o
P

a
i
n
a
m
o
R

a
i
b
r
e
S

a
i
k
a
v
o

l
S

a
i
n
e
v
o

l
S

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

Lower

Equal

Higher

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

17 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Regional overview 

18 

 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Albania 

Albania 

Credit demand stagnated, while supply conditions tightened further. A significant recovery in demand 
conditions and tightening of supply is expected in the next six months, signalling a continuation of the 
demand-supply gap. Credit quality is expected to improve. 

Summary 

Group assessment of positioning and market potential: All international banking groups reported lower or equal 
profitability for Albanian operations compared to overall group operations, with a deterioration against the previous 
survey round. Some improvements have been registered in market potential and market positioning, with all parent 
banks considering the Albanian market to have medium or high potential. 

Credit  demand  in  Albania  stagnated,  in  line  with  the  regional  average.  More  segments  registered  an 
improvement, but long-term loans decreased.  Strong demand conditions are expected to return in the next six 
months, more so than for the wider region. 

Credit supply conditions (indicating the banks’ willingness to extend credit to their clients) continued to tighten, 
in  line  with  the  regional  trend  and  affected  by  increased  monetary  policy  rates.  Subsidiary  banks  in  Albania  are 
signalling that supply conditions will continue tightening over the next six months, especially for corporations. 

Access to funding, following very positive trends in the past, deteriorated in Albania in the last six months but is 
expected to improve in the next six months. 

Non-performing  loan  (NPL)  ratios  remained  unchanged  in  the  corporate  and  retail  segments  over  the  last  six 
months and are expected to improve for the next period, exceeding regional trends. 

Credit supply and credit demand (in %) 

Access to funding and credit quality (in %) 

Supply (AL)
Supply (CESEE)

Demand (AL)
Demand (CESEE)

Access to funding (AL)

Access to funding (CESEE)

NPL (AL)

NPL (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: All values are net percentages. Positive values denote 
increasing (easing) demand (supply). 

Note: All values are net percentages. Access to funding: Positive 
values indicate increased access. NPL: Negative values indicate an 
increase in the non-performing loan ratio. 

19 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Albania 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — parent bank level 

Figure 1 

Market potential and positioning 

Bank profitability deteriorated further over the last six 
months in Albania. Most international banking groups 
reported a lower return on assets (RoA) and return on 
equity  (RoE)  for  Albanian  operations  compared  to 
overall group operations, while in the previous survey 
run  the  picture  was  more  optimistic  (especially  in 
terms  of  RoA,  with  100%  of  banks  mentioning  equal 
profitability compared to group level). 

Albania’s  market  potential  and  market  positioning 
improved. Parent banks consider the Albanian market 
to have medium to high potential, and three-quarters 
continue  to  report  their  market  positioning  as 
satisfactory or optimal. 

One-third  of  the  parent  banks  present  in  Albania  are 
considering  deleveraging 
in  Central,  Eastern  and 
South-Eastern  Europe,  but  all  intend  to  maintain  or 
selectively 
level  of  operation  via 
subsidiaries.   

increase  their 

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

High 
25%

Optimal 
25%

Equal 
33%

Equal 
33%

Medium 
75%

Satisfactory 
50%

Niche player 
25%

Lower 
67%

Lower 
67%

 Market
Potential

Market
Positioning

RoA

RoE

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

RoA:  return  on  assets  (adjusted  for  cost  of  risk)  compared  to  overall 
group operations; RoE: return on equity (adjusted for cost of equity) 
compared to overall group RoE. See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — local bank/subsidiary level 

Figure 2 

Aggregate demand developments (in %) 

Last six months (AL)
Next six months (AL)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Demand for loans in Albania stagnated during the last 
six months,  contrary  to  the  expectations  expected in 
the  previous  survey  round,  and  aligned  with  the 
regional average. 

Expectations for the next six months point towards a 
recovery, with a return of strong demand conditions, 
more than for the wider region. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
increasing  demand.  The  two  expectations  series  (dotted  line  and 
diamonds)  are  shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the  perceptions 
series (solid line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at 
time t for the next six months are plotted on the chart at time t + 1. See 
Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

20 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Albania 

Figure 3 

Demand components and segments (in %) 

Demand for loans stagnated overall during the last six months but increased for small and medium-sized enterprises 
and households, particularly in the short term. 

Overall credit demand is expected to turn positive on average in the next six months across all credit segments. 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating increasing demand. See Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

Figure 4 

Factors affecting demand for loans (in %) 

Working  capital  (typically  short-term)  and  fixed  investments  (typically  long-term)  contributed  to  corporate  loan 
demand, whereas other factors had a neutral contribution. In the household segment, mortgage loans were the driver 
of demand.  

During  the  next  six  months,  demand  for  loans  is  expected  to  be  driven  by  working  capital  for  companies  and 
consumer loans for households.  

Loans to enterprises

Households

Fixed
investments

Inventories and
working capital

M&A and corporate
restructuring

Debt
restructuring

Housing market
prospects

Consumer
confidence

Non-housing related
consumption
expenditure

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  positive  values  indicating  a  positive  contribution  to  demand.  M&A  refers  to  mergers  and 
acquisitions. See Question B.Q7 in the Annex. 

21 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Albania 

Last six months (AL)
Next six months (AL)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Figure 5 

Aggregate supply developments (in %) 

Credit  standards  in  Albania  tightened  for  the  third 
period in a row, similar to the regional trend. 

Over the next six months, the tightening of credit supply 
(indicating the willingness of banks to extend credit to 
their  clients)  is  expected  to  continue  in  Albania,  more 
than in the region, in line with global trends of tighter 
monetary policy conditions to tackle inflation. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
easing supply. The two expectations series (dotted line and diamonds) 
are  shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the  perceptions  series  (line 
and circles). In other words, expectations reported at time t for the next 
six months are plotted on the chart at time t + 1. See Question B.Q1 in 
the Annex. 

Figure 6 

Supply components and segments (in %) 

Credit  supply  conditions  tightened  for  the  corporate  segment  (both  for  small  and  medium  firms  and  large 
corporates) and were neutral for mortgages. They eased for consumer loans. 

The same trend across segments is expected for the next six months, except for mortgages, which are expected to 
be weak in terms of credit supply. 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating easing supply conditions. See Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

22 

 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Albania 

Figure 7 

Factors contributing to supply conditions (in %) 

Local market outlook and local bank funding contributed negatively to credit supply conditions in Albania over the 
last six months, while local bank capital constraints and non-performing loans in the local market continued to make 
positive contributions. All international factors contributed negatively, except for the global market outlook which 
had a neutral contribution. 

Supply  conditions  are  expected  to  deteriorate  over  the  next  six  months,  driven  by  both  international  and  local 
factors. 

Domestic factors

International factors

Local
market
outlook

Local
bank
outlook

Local
bank
funding

Local bank
capital
constraints

Change in
local
regulation

Local
NPL
figures

Group
outlook

Global
market
outlook

Group
funding

EU
regulation

Group
capital
constraints

Group
NPL
figures

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to supply. See Question B.Q4 in the Annex. 

Figure 8 

Non-performing loan ratios (in %) 

Total

Corporate

Retail

The  expected  deterioration  in  non-performing  loans 
did  not  materialise.  The  credit  portfolio  quality  has 
been maintained for the corporate and retail segments 
over the last six months.  

Local  banks  in  Albania  expect  an  improvement  in 
credit  quality  (in  other  words,  a  decrease  in  non-
performing loans) during the next six months, for both 
corporate and retail business.  

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  negative  values 
indicating deteriorating credit quality (in other words, increasing NPL 
ratios). See Question B.Q8 in the Annex. 

23 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Albania 

Figure 9 

Access to funding (in %) 

Bank funding in Albania deteriorated slightly over the last six months, contrary to the prevailing trend in the region. 
However, corporate, interbank and central bank funding improved. 

Banks expect funding conditions to improve during the next six months, driven mainly by retail (that is, higher retail 
deposits) and foreign currency funding. 

g
n

i

d
n
u
f
p
u
o
r
g
a
r
t
n

I

g
n

i

d
n
u
f

l
a
t
o
T

g
n

i

d
n
u
f

I
F
I

g
n

i

d
n
u
f

l
i
a
t
e
R

g
n

i

d
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u
f
e
t
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r
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p
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C

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r
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c
e
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a
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r
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t
n

I

t
e
k
r
a
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100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating improved access to funding. See Question B.Q9 in the Annex. 

24 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Bosnia and Herzegovina 

Bosnia and Herzegovina 

Credit supply conditions continued to tighten during the last six months and are expected to tighten 
further in the next six months. Credit demand recovered slightly, and the positive trend is expected 
to continue. Profitability deteriorated, and half of parent banks consider Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 
market potential to be medium and half consider it low.  

Summary 

Group  assessment  of  positioning  and  market  potential:  Half  of  parent  banks  report  that  Bosnia  and 
Herzegovina  has  low  market  potential  (50%),  the  worst  rating  among  the  Central,  Eastern  and  South-Eastern 
European  countries  surveyed.  The  profitability  of local  banks  deteriorated  from  the  previous  period, with  most 
banks reporting profitability that is equal to the overall group level. 

Demand  for  loans  recovered  over  the  last  six  months,  driven  mainly  by  corporations  and  an  ongoing 
improvement in consumer loans. Further improvement is expected for the same segments in the next six months. 

Credit supply conditions have tightened further across the board and banks in Bosnia and Herzegovina expect 
this trend, which began in 2021, to continue. 

Access  to  funding  remained  generally  unchanged,  despite  improved  funding  from  international  finance 
institutions, retail deposits, the interbank market and the net central bank position. 

Credit quality improved in the corporate and retail segments. However, in line with decelerated economic activity, 
banks expect an increase in non-performing corporate loans in the next six months but overall credit quality is 
expected to remain neutral. 

Credit supply and credit demand (%) 

Access to funding and credit quality (%) 

Supply (BA)
Supply (CESEE)

Demand (BA)
Demand (CESEE)

Access to funding (BA)

Access to funding (CESEE)

NPL (BA)

NPL (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: All values are net percentages. Positive values denote 
increasing (easing) demand (supply). 

Note: All values are net percentages. Access to funding: Positive 
values indicate increased access. Non-performing loans: 
Negative values indicate an increase in the NPL ratio. 

25 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Bosnia and Herzegovina 

 CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — parent bank level 

Figure 1 

Market potential and positioning 

The outlook for the banking market is less optimistic in 
Bosnia and Herzegovina than in the rest of the region. 
Specifically, half of parent banks rate market potential 
as  low,  and  the  other  half  as  medium,  positioning 
Bosnia and Herzegovina as the country with the worst 
rating in the region. 

Profitability  indicators  are  relatively  better:  Whereas 
parent  banks  started  to  report  lower  profitability  for 
local  operations  in  many  Central,  Eastern  and  South-
Eastern European countries, they continued to declare 
a higher or equal return on assets (RoA) and return on 
equity (RoE) in Bosnia and Herzegovina compared to 
the  overall  group.  Market positioning  also  continued 
to  be  positive  for  three-quarters  of  parent  banks 
(satisfactory or optimal). 

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Medium 
50%

Low 
50%

Optimal 
25%

Higher 
33%

Equal 
100%

Equal 
67%

Satisfactory 
50%

Niche player 
25%

 Market
Potential

Market
Positioning

RoA

RoE

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

RoA:  return  on  assets  (adjusted  for  cost  of  risk)  compared  to  overall 
group operations; RoE: return on equity (adjusted for cost of equity) 
compared to overall group RoE. See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — local bank/subsidiary level 

Figure 2 

Aggregate demand developments (in %) 

Last six months (BA)
Next six months (BA)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

After some volatility in recent years, demand for credit 
recovered  over  the  last  six  months,  in  line  with  the 
regional average. 

Improvements  in  credit  demand  are  expected  over  the 
next six months, significantly above the regional trend. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
increasing  demand.  The  two  expectations  series  (dotted  line  and 
diamonds)  are  shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the  perceptions 
series (solid line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at 
time t for the next six months are plotted on the chart at time t + 1. See 
Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

26 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Bosnia and Herzegovina 

Figure 3 

Demand components and segments (in %) 

The increase in demand for loans was driven by all corporate and household segments. 

Growth in demand is expected over the next six months for most segments. The strongest growth is expected for 
business and consumer loans, while demand for mortgage loans is expected to stay unchanged. 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating increasing demand. See Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

Figure 4 

Factors affecting demand for loans (in %) 

Most factors contributed positively to credit demand over the last six months, including working capital and debt 
restructuring  of  enterprises,  and  consumer  confidence  and  non-housing  related  consumption  expenditure  of 
households. 

Parent banks expect the same factors and fixed investments to contribute positively in the next six months.  

Loans to enterprises

Households

Fixed
investments

Inventories and
working capital

M&A and corporate
restructuring

Debt
restructuring

Housing market
prospects

Consumer
confidence

Non-housing related
consumption
expenditure

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to demand. See Question B.Q7 in the Annex. 

27 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Bosnia and Herzegovina 

Last six months (BA)
Next six months (BA)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Figure 5 

Aggregate supply developments (in %) 

Supply  conditions 
in  Bosnia  and  Herzegovina 
continued  to  tighten  over  the  last  six  months,  more 
than the average in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern 
Europe. 

Over the next six months, banks in Bosnia and 
Herzegovina expect credit supply conditions to tighten 
further, continuing a trend that began in 2021. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
easing supply. The two expectations series (dotted line and diamonds) 
are shifted forward to be comparable to the perceptions series (solid 
line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at time t for the 
next  six  months  are  plotted  on  the  chart  at  time  t + 1.  See 
Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

Figure 6 

Supply components and segments (in %) 

Credit  standards  in  Bosnia  and  Herzegovina’s  banking  market  have  tightened  overall,  driven  by  the  corporate 
segments, while the household segment stayed neutral. 

A slight tightening is expected in the next six months overall, but some softening is likely for consumer credit.  

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  positive  values  indicating  easing  supply  conditions  and  negative  values  indicating  tighter 
conditions. See Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

28 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Bosnia and Herzegovina 

Figure 7 

Factors contributing to supply conditions (in %) 

Most  domestic  factors  contributed  negatively  to  credit  supply  conditions  over  the  last  six  months,  but  the 
contribution of local non-performing loan figures was positive. Local bank outlook and local bank capital constraints 
stayed  neutral.  Of  the  international  factors,  the  global  outlook,  EU regulation  and  group  capital  constraints 
contributed negatively, while the other factors had a neutral contribution.  

In the next six months, most local and international factors are expected to stay neutral or contribute negatively to 
credit supply conditions. Only the group outlook is expected to contribute positively. 

Domestic factors

International factors

Local
market
outlook

Local
bank
outlook

Local
bank
funding

Local bank
capital
constraints

Change in
local
regulation

Local
NPL
figures

Group
outlook

Global
market
outlook

Group
funding

EU
regulation

Group
capital
constraints

Group
NPL
figures

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to supply. See Question B.Q4 in the Annex. 

Figure 8 

Non-performing loan ratios (in %) 

Total

Corporate

Retail

Non-performing  loan  (NPL)  ratios  improved  further  in 
Bosnia  and Herzegovina over  the  last  six months, with 
positive  changes  in  the  retail  segments  exceeding 
average regional improvements. 

A deterioration in credit quality is expected for the next 
six months, driven by the corporate segment. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  negative  values 
indicating deteriorating credit quality (in other words, increasing NPL 
ratios). See Question B.Q8 in the Annex. 

29 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Bosnia and Herzegovina 

Figure 9 

Access to funding (in %) 

Access  to  funding  remained  unchanged  in  the  last  six  months.  By  segment,  access  to  funding  increased  for 
international financial institutions (IFIs), retail funding (retail deposits), interbank money market and net central bank 
position, but decreased for intragroup and corporate funding. 

For  the  next  six  months,  banks  expect  better  access  to  funding  overall,  driven  mainly  by  international  financial 
institutions and corporate funding (corporate deposits) and wholesale debt securities. 

g
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100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating improved access to funding. See Question B.Q9 in the Annex. 

30 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Bulgaria 

Bulgaria 

Bulgaria’s market is seen by parent banks to have medium or high potential. Credit demand remained 
positive, and credit supply neutral. The worsening outlook is expected to affect credit demand, credit 
supply and credit quality negatively in the next six months. 

Summary 

Group  assessment  of  positioning  and  market  potential:  Parent  banks  operating  in  Bulgaria  show  a  strong 
commitment to the region and assess the Bulgarian banking market potential as medium or high. Returns on assets 
for Bulgarian operations consistently remain higher than or equal to overall group returns. Moreover, half of parent 
banks operating in Bulgaria regard their current market positioning as optimal. 

Demand for loans weakened across segments in the last six months, following the sharp deterioration that began 
in 2020 and the subsequent rebound. Over the next six months, demand is expected to slow further. 

Credit supply conditions remained stable after continuous improvement over the past two years across market 
segments. Supply conditions are expected to remain stable in the next six months. 

Access to funding remained robust over the last six months. The improvement is mostly attributable to sustained 
growth of household deposits and corporate deposits. 

Non-performing loans (NPLs) improved over the last two years, thereby returning to the positive trend of the four 
years  preceding  the  pandemic.  Expectations  for  the  next  six  months,  however,  are  more  pessimistic,  both  for 
corporate and retail. 

Credit supply and credit demand (in %) 

Access to funding and credit quality (in %) 

Supply (BG)
Supply (CESEE)

Demand (BG)
Demand (CESEE)

Access to funding (BG)

Access to funding (CESEE)

NPL (BG)

NPL (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: All values are net percentages. Positive values denote 
increasing (easing) demand (supply). 

Note: All values are net percentages. Access to funding: Positive 
values indicate increased access to funding. Non-performing 
loans: Negative values indicate an increase in the NPL ratio. 

31 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Bulgaria 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — parent bank level 

Figure 1 

Market potential and positioning  

A  large  share  of  the  Bulgarian  banking  sector  is 
controlled by foreign banks with a strong foothold in 
the region (such as UniCredit, OTP, KBC and ProCredit). 

All  foreign  banks  operating  in  Bulgaria  view  the 
country  as  a  market  with  medium  (80%)  or  high 
potential (20%) and regard their market positioning as 
satisfactory (40%) or optimal (60%). 

Local subsidiary banks in Bulgaria are more profitable 
than at the group level. In line with their high level of 
satisfaction  with  the  market  positioning,  all  banks 
reported that returns on assets (RoA) and equity (RoE) 
in  Bulgaria  are  higher  than  (20%)  or  equal  (80%)  to 
overall group returns.  

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

High 
20%

Medium 
80%

Optimal 
60%

Satisfactory 
40%

Higher 
20%

Higher 
20%

Equal 
80%

Equal 
80%

 Market
Potential

Market
Positioning

RoA

RoE

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

RoA:  return  on  assets  (adjusted  for  cost  of  risk)  compared  to  overall 
group operations; RoE: return on equity (adjusted for cost of equity) 
compared to overall group RoE. See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — local bank/subsidiary level 

Figure 2 

Aggregate demand developments (in %) 

Changes  in  demand  for  loans  in  Bulgaria  since  2019 
have  followed  a  pattern  similar  to  the  wider  region. 
Demand  for  loans  in  Bulgaria  declined  following  the 
outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, and then picked 
up somewhat later than in the rest of Central, Eastern 
and  South-Eastern  Europe  (CESEE),  but  remained 
strong  for  a  longer  period.  Demand  started  to  cool 
down in late 2022 and early 2023, as lending rates rose. 
Over  the  next  six  months,  demand  is  expected  to 
continue  cooling  down  as  optimism  declines,  in  line 
with developments in the rest of the region.  

likely  account 

High uncertainty and unexpected growth in 2022 and 
for  credit  demand 
early  2023 
significantly  exceeding  banks’  expectations  in  this 
period. At the same time, expectations for a continuing 
economic slowdown globally and in the region are the 
most  likely  explanation  for  continuing  pessimism 
about credit demand.  

32 

Last six months (BG)
Next six months (BG)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
increasing  demand.  The  two  expectations  series  (dotted  line  and 
diamonds)  are  shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the  perceptions 
series (solid line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at 
time t for the next six months are plotted on the chart at time t + 1. See 
Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Bulgaria 

Figure 3 

Demand components and segments (in %) 

Overall loan demand was assessed as increasing over the last six months by a net 20% of respondents, and for every 
market segment. These findings are in line with the slowing of the Bulgarian economy in 2023.  

Over the next six months, banks expect overall corporate loan demand to remain stable, though it might weaken in 
the  retail  segment.  A  net  25%  of  respondents  expect  a  decline  in  demand  for  mortgage  loans  and  a  decline  in 
demand for consumer credit. 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating increasing demand. See Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

Figure 4 

Factors affecting demand for loans (in %) 

Loan demand for fixed investments remained stable after an increase at the beginning of 2022. Demand for loans 
to finance working capital has also been flat over the past six months.  

In the next six months, demand for investment loans is expected to remain stable, while demand for working capital 
loans  continues  to  grow  (for  a  net  25%).  Declining  consumer  confidence  and  deteriorating  housing  market 
prospects have brought down expectations for demand in retail, where it is expected to remain stable over the next 
six months.  

Loans to enterprises

Households

Fixed
investments

Inventories and
working capital

M&A and corporate
restructuring

Debt
restructuring

Housing market
prospects

Consumer
confidence

Non-housing related
consumption
expenditure

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to 
demand. M&A refers to mergers and acquisitions. See Question B.Q7 in the Annex. 

33 

 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Bulgaria 

Last six months (BG)
Next six months (BG)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Figure 5 

Aggregate supply developments (in %) 

In  the  last  six  months,  supply  conditions  (expressing 
the banks’ willingness to extend credit to their clients) 
remained  broadly  unchanged  following  a  string  of 
improvements in  the wake  of  a  brief  deterioration  in 
the first half of 2020. The improvements in recent years 
resulted from the strengthening of economic activity 
and  banking  sector  balance  sheets,  which  enabled 
Bulgarian banks to relax loan conditions. 

Over  the  next  six  months,  supply  conditions  are 
expected  to  remain  stable.  These  expectations  are in 
line with the average forecast for the region and reflect 
the  effects  of  tightening  monetary  policy  and  an 
ongoing economic slowdown. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
easing supply. The two expectations series (dotted line and diamonds) 
are shifted forward to be comparable to the perceptions series (solid 
line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at time t for the 
next  six  months  are  plotted  on  the  chart  at  time  t  +  1.  See 
Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

Figure 6 

Supply components and segments (in %) 

Credit supply conditions were perceived as unchanged across all market segments and maturities over the last six 
months. 

In the next six months, banks expect credit standards to stay neutral across all market segments, slightly better than 
the regional trend. 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  positive  values  indicating  easing  supply  conditions  and  negative  values  indicating  tighter 
conditions. See Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

34 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Bulgaria 

Figure 7 

Factors contributing to supply conditions (in %) 

While supply conditions remained stable, various factors contributed negatively to the conditions over the last six 
months. For a net 50% of respondents, the local market outlook and both domestic and EU regulation contributed 
negatively. For a net 25% of respondents, non-performing loan (NPL) figures at the local and group levels, as well as 
the outlook and local bank funding, negatively affected supply conditions. 

In the next six months, the same factors are expected to continue exerting downward pressure on supply conditions. 

Domestic factors

International factors

Local
market
outlook

Local
bank
outlook

Local
bank
funding

Local bank
capital
constraints

Change in
local
regulation

Local
NPL
figures

Group
outlook

Global
market
outlook

Group
funding

EU
regulation

Group
capital
constraints

Group
NPL
figures

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to supply. See Question B.Q4 in the Annex. 

Figure 8 

Non-performing loan ratios (in %) 

Between  2017  and  2023,  most  local  subsidiaries  in 
Bulgaria  reported  declining  non-performing 
loan 
ratios,  though  the  ratios  remained  above  regional 
averages.  Restructuring  of  corporate  portfolios  has 
had  a  significant  effect,  partly  because  non-
performing  loans  in  Bulgaria  are  concentrated  in  the 
corporate segment. 

In  recent  months,  surveyed  banks  indicated  that  the 
improved 
non-performing 
overall, though less in the retail segments than in the 
corporate segment. 

in  Bulgaria 

loan  ratios 

However, respondents expect a deterioration in non-
performing loan ratios across segments in the next six 
months.  The  deteriorating  economic  outlook,  along 
with  tighter  financial  conditions  and  higher  interest 
rates, explain the expected drop.  

Total

Corporate

Retail

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  negative  values 
indicating deteriorating credit quality (in other words, increasing NPL 
ratios). See Question B.Q8 in the Annex. 

35 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Bulgaria 

Figure 9 

Access to funding (in %) 

Access to funding for Bulgarian subsidiaries has improved over the last six months (net 50%), continuing a trend 
that started in the second half of 2013, and was not interrupted by the pandemic. 

This improvement is expected to be maintained in the next six months (net 25% of respondents), as the European 
Central Bank and local monetary authorities are committed to maintaining open credit channels while increasing 
policy rates. The main positive contributors during the last six months were retail, corporate and intragroup funding. 
Over the next six months, these categories are all expected to continue contributing to better access to funding.  

g
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t
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t
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f

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r
r
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k
n
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l
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r
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100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating improved access to funding. See Question B.Q9 in the Annex. 

36 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Croatia 

Croatia 

Credit supply conditions continued to tighten. Further tightening is expected in the next six 
months, in line with monetary conditions. On the other hand, credit demand remains buoyant and 
is expected to stay positive. Credit quality improved and is expected to remain solid. 

Summary 

Group  assessment  of  positioning  and  market  potential:  International  banking  groups  reported  that  the 
profitability  of  operations  in  Croatia  declined  further  compared  to  the  overall  group  in  the  last  six  months. 
Nevertheless,  their  market  positioning  in  the  country  improved  slightly,  with  three-quarters  of  the  banks 
describing it as satisfactory or optimal, and market potential assessed as medium or high, but still below other 
countries in the region. 

Credit  demand  remained  robust  and  continued  to  expand  after  the  post-pandemic  recovery,  while  credit 
supply  conditions  continued  to  tighten,  increasing  the  demand-supply  gap.  Banks  expect  these  trends  to 
continue less intensely in the next six months. 

Access to funding remained unchanged over the last six months, while some funding sources such as domestic 
corporate deposits, funding by international financial institutions, central bank positioning and foreign currency 
funding deteriorated slightly. For the next six months, funding conditions are expected to be favourable overall 
and for the main segments. 

Non-performing loan (NPL) ratios improved for the corporate and retail segments in the last six months and 
no major change is expected for the next period. 

Credit supply and credit demand (in %) 

                             Access to funding and credit quality (in %) 

Supply (HR)
Supply (CESEE)

Demand (HR)
Demand (CESEE)

Access to funding (HR)

Access to funding (CESEE)

NPL (HR)

NPL (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: All values are net percentages. Positive values denote 
increasing (easing) demand (supply). 

Note: All values are net percentages. Access to funding: Positive 
values indicate increased access. Non-performing loans: 
Negative values indicate an increase in the NPL ratio. 

37  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Croatia 

 CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — parent bank level 

Figure 1 

Market potential and positioning (in %) 

Croatia’s  market  potential  improved  over  the  last  six 
months,  with  only  a  quarter  of  banks  indicating  low 
potential,  compared  to  two-thirds  in  the  previous 
survey  round.  The  Croatian  banking  market  also 
improved slightly in terms of market positioning, with 
a quarter of banks perceiving their positioning as weak 
compared to a third in the previous round. 

On  the  other  hand,  profitability  compared  to  overall 
line  with  the 
group  operations  deteriorated, 
regional  trend,  with  two-thirds  of  parent  banks 
indicating that their Croatian subsidiaries had a lower 
return on assets (RoA) and return on equity (RoE) than 
the overall group.  

in 

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

High 
25%

Optimal 
25%

Higher 
33%

Higher 
33%

Medium 
50%

Satisfactory 
50%

Low 
25%

Weak 
25%

 Market
Potential

Market
Positioning

Lower 
67%

Lower 
67%

RoA

RoE

Source:  EIB  —  CESEE  Bank  Lending  Survey.  RoA:  return  on  assets 
(adjusted for cost of risk) compared to overall group operations; RoE: 
return  on  equity  (adjusted  for  cost  of  equity)  compared  to  overall 
group RoE. See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — local bank/subsidiary level 

Figure 2 

Aggregate demand developments (in %) 

Last six months (HR)
Next six months (HR)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Loan demand remained strong and even accelerated. 
The  increase  in  credit  demand  in  Croatia  exceeded 
expectations and the regional average. 

For the next six months, Croatian banks expect a slight 
increase in demand, in line with regional expectations. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
increasing  demand.  The  two  expectations  series  (dotted  line  and 
diamonds)  are  shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the  perceptions 
series (solid line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at 
time t for the next six months are plotted on the chart at time t + 1. See 
Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

38 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Croatia 

Figure 3 

Demand components and segments (in %) 

Credit  demand  continued  to  increase  over  the  last  six months in most  segments,  except  large  companies  and 
short-term loans, which dropped.  

A slight increase in loan demand is expected in the next six months overall (in line with the regional average), with 
a slight improvement for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and consumer credit, and a negative contribution 
from mortgage loans.  

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating increasing demand. See Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

Figure 4 

Factors affecting demand for loans (in %) 

Fixed  investments  of  firms,  housing  market  and  household  consumer  confidence  contributed  positively  to  an 
increase in demand for loans in the last six months, while working capital, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and 
corporate  restructuring  contributed  negatively.  In  the  next  six  months,  demand  for  working  capital,  fixed 
investments, and household consumer confidence are expected to contribute positively, while housing market 
prospects and non-housing related expenditures are expected to drag down credit demand. 

Loans to enterprises

Households

Fixed
investments

Inventories and
working capital

M&A and corporate
restructuring

Debt
restructuring

Housing market
prospects

Consumer
confidence

Non-housing related
consumption
expenditure

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey.  

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to demand. M&A refers to mergers and 
acquisitions. See Question B.Q7 in the Annex. 

39  

 
 
 
  
 
  
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Croatia 

Last six months (HR)
Next six months (HR)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Figure 5 

Aggregate supply developments (in %) 

Credit  conditions  tightened  further  over  the  last  six 
months for the third period in a row, following a post-
pandemic easing. 

Supply conditions are expected to continue tightening 
over  the  next  six  months  in  Croatia,  in  line  with  the 
regional and global trends of tighter monetary policy. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
easing supply. The two expectations series (dotted line and diamonds) 
are shifted forward to be comparable to the perceptions series (solid 
line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at time t for the 
next  six  months  are  plotted  on  the  chart  at  time  t  +  1.  See 
Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

Figure 6 

Supply components and segments (in %) 

Credit  supply  conditions  tightened  in  the  last  six  months  across  every  segment  except  mortgage  loans,  which 
remained unchanged. 

This tightening of supply conditions is expected to continue over the next six months across all segments, including 
house purchases, more than the regional average.   

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  positive  values  indicating  easing  supply  conditions  and  negative  values  indicating  tighter 
conditions. See Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

40 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Croatia 

Figure 7 

Factors contributing to supply conditions (in %) 

While overall  credit  supply  conditions  tightened, only  regulation  (at  EU  and local  level)  is  perceived  as  a  driving 
factor in the last six months. 

In the next six months, the local market outlook and the possible deterioration of credit quality, together of EU 
regulation, are the main drivers of tight supply conditions.  

Domestic factors

International factors

Local
market
outlook

Local
bank
outlook

Local
bank
funding

Local bank
capital
constraints

Change in
local
regulation

Local
NPL
figures

Group
outlook

Global
market
outlook

Group
funding

EU
regulation

Group
capital
constraints

Group
NPL
figures

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to supply. See Question B.Q4 in the Annex. 

Figure 8 

Non-performing loan ratios (in %) 

Total

Corporate

Retail

Credit quality improved in the Croatian banking market in 
the  last  six  months,  more  than  the  average  level  of 
improvement 
in  Central,  Eastern  and  South-Eastern 
Europe.  

The positive trend is expected to continue for corporate 
loans and no change is expected in the credit quality of 
the  retail  segment,  whereas  a  slight  deterioration  is 
expected at the regional level. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  negative  values 
indicating  deteriorating  credit  quality  (in  other  words,  an  increasing 
NPL ratio). See Question B.Q8 in the Annex. 

41  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Croatia 

Figure 9 

Access to funding (in %) 

Access  to  funding  did  not  change  in  the  last  six  months,  but  access  to  some  sources  deteriorated,  such  as 
international financial institution funding, corporate deposits, local currency funding, net central bank position and 
foreign currency funding.  

Access to funding is expected to improve overall and in the next six months, except for the net central bank position, 
which is expected to deteriorate further.  

Domestic factors

International factors

Local
market
outlook

Local
bank
outlook

Local
bank
funding

Local bank
capital
constraints

Change in
local
regulation

Local
NPL
figures

Group
outlook

Global
market
outlook

Group
funding

EU
regulation

Group
capital
constraints

Group
NPL
figures

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating improved access to funding. See Question B.Q9 in the Annex. 

42 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Czech Republic 

Czech Republic 

While demand for loans started to grow again over the past six months, supply remained restricted. 
With interest rates in the local currency significantly higher than in euros, bank clients demanded 
relatively more loans in euros. In the next six months, banks expect loan demand to continue to 
grow and supply to change little.  

Summary 

Group assessment of positioning and market potential: All parent banks operating in the Czech Republic say 
the country’s banking market has high or medium potential and most see little reason to change their positioning. 
Banks consider the Czech Republic the market with the highest potential in the region. 

Banks  report  that  demand  for  loans  picked  up  in  the  last  six  months,  on  balance.  Demand  for  mortgages, 
consumer loans, and loans for large companies increased at most banks. In contrast, loan demand for small and 
medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) has not yet recovered. With the interest rate difference between the koruna and 
the euro still significant, demand for local currency loans fell and for foreign currency loans rose. In the next six 
months, most banks expect demand for loans to continue to increase, except by small firms.  

The supply of loans remained unchanged, on balance. A small majority of banks  tightened their supply of 
loans for large companies and house purchases, like those in the rest of the region. 

Most banks reported that their non-performing loans (NPLs) improved over the last six months, driven by the 
corporate sector. Banks on balance do not expect further increases.  

Access to funding also improved for most banks in the Czech Republic. An exception is funding in foreign 
currency,  which  deteriorated,  presumably  reflecting  the  consequences  of  monetary  tightening  in  the  euro 
area. Most banks expect their funding conditions to remain solid over the next six months. 

Credit supply and credit demand (in %) 

Access to funding and credit quality (in %) 

Supply (CZ)
Supply (CESEE)

Demand (CZ)
Demand (CESEE)

Access to funding (CZ)

Access to funding (CESEE)

NPL (CZ)

NPL (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: All values are net percentages. Positive values denote 
increasing (easing) demand (supply). 

Note: All values are net percentages. Access to funding: Positive 
values indicate increased access. Non-performing loans: Negative 
figures indicate increasing NPL ratios. 

43  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — parent bank level 

Figure 1 

Market potential and positioning (in %) 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Czech Republic 

Most banks in the Czech Republic belong to banking 
groups that also operate elsewhere in the region (such 
as  Erste,  KBC,  Raiffeisen,  UniCredit  and  Société 
Générale).  All  parent  banks  with  a  presence  in  the 
Czech banking market believe it has high or medium 
potential  and  most  see  little  reason  to  change  their 
positioning.  It  is  considered  the  market  with  the 
highest potential in the region.  

Banks reported that their returns on assets (RoA) and 
returns on equity (RoE) were higher on balance in the 
Czech Republic than for their overall groups, reflecting 
higher interest margins and lower costs. 

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Optimal 
25%

Satisfactory 
50%

High 
75%

Medium 
25%

Weak 
25%

 Market
Potential

Market
Positioning

Higher 
50%

Higher 
50%

Equal 
25%

Lower 
25%

RoA

Equal 
25%

Lower 
25%

RoE

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

RoA:  return  on  assets  (adjusted  for  cost  of  risk)  compared  to  overall 
group operations; RoE: return on equity (adjusted for cost of equity) 
compared to overall group RoE. See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — local bank/subsidiary level 

Figure 2 

Aggregate demand developments (in %) 

Last six months (CZ)
Next six months (CZ)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Credit  demand  in  the  Czech  Republic  appeared  to 
recover significantly over the past six months, having 
previously  declined  by  more  than  in  the  rest  of  the 
region.  

Over  the  next  six  months,  most  banks  expect  credit 
demand to continue to recover, perhaps because real 
disposable income is expected to make up for some of 
the  losses  incurred  in  the  past  year.  The  forecast 
appears  to  be  more  optimistic  than  for  the  rest  of 
Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
increasing  demand.  The  two  expectations  series  (dotted  line  and 
diamonds)  are  shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the  perceptions 
series (solid line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at 
time t for the next six months are plotted on the chart at time t + 1. See 
Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

44 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Czech Republic 

Figure 3 

Demand components and segments (in %) 

Banks  reported  that  overall  demand  for  loans  increased  during  the  last  six  months.  Demand  for  mortgages, 
consumer loans, and by large companies increased at most banks. In contrast, demand by small and medium firms 
has not yet recovered. With the difference between local currency and euro interest rates still high, demand for local 
currency loans fell while demand for foreign currency loans increased.  

Most banks expect demand for loans to continue to increase, and the currency composition to remain unchanged. 
Demand by small and medium-sized enterprises is not yet expected to turn around.  

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating increasing demand. See Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

Figure 4 

Factors affecting demand for loans (in %) 

Demand  for  working  capital  increased  at  most  interviewed  banks.  Most  other  factors  neither  increased  nor 
decreased  loan  demand.  In  the  coming  six  months,  companies’  fixed  investments  and  the  housing  market  are 
expected  to  support  the  demand  for  loans,  while  non-housing  related  consumption  expenditure  is  expected  to 
remain weak.  

Loans to enterprises

Households

Fixed
investments

Inventories and
working capital

M&A and corporate
restructuring

Debt
restructuring

Housing market
prospects

Consumer
confidence

Non-housing related
consumption
expenditure

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to demand. See Question B.Q7 in the Annex. 

45  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Czech Republic 

Last six months (CZ)
Next six months (CZ)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Figure 5 

Aggregate supply developments (in %) 

While  demand  for  loans  increased,  banks  said  loan 
supply remained broadly unchanged.  

This  was  in  line  with  the  rest  of  the  region  and  is 
expected  to  remain  similar  over  the  coming  six 
months.  

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
easing supply. The two expectations series (dotted line and diamonds) 
are shifted forward to be comparable to the perceptions series (solid 
line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at time t for the 
next  six  months  are  plotted  on  the  chart  at  time  t  +  1.  See 
Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

Figure 6 

Supply components and segments (in %) 

Banks on average left their supply of loans broadly unchanged. A small majority of banks tightened their supply of 
loans for large companies and house purchases.  

In the next six months, a similarly small majority intend to lower their supply of loans to small and medium-sized 
enterprises and for house purchases. 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  positive  values  indicating  easing  supply  conditions  and  negative  values  indicating  tighter 
conditions. See Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

46 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Czech Republic 

Figure 7 

Factors contributing to supply conditions (in %) 

The deteriorating outlook of the local market appears to have been the driving factor for the slight decline in the 
supply of loans from Czech banks. All other factors have had and are expected to have a broadly neutral impact on 
supply conditions.  

Domestic factors

International factors

Local
market
outlook

Local
bank
outlook

Local
bank
funding

Local bank
capital
constraints

Change in
local
regulation

Local
NPL
figures

Group
outlook

Global
market
outlook

Group
funding

EU
regulation

Group
capital
constraints

Group
NPL
figures

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to supply and negative values indicating tighter 
conditions. See Question B.Q4 in the Annex. 

Figure 8 

Non-performing loan ratios (in %) 

Total

Corporate

Retail

Most interviewed Czech banks reported that their non-
performing  loan  ratio  improved,  driven  by  corporate 
lending.  

The banks do not expect further increases, on balance, 
in the next six months.  

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  negative  values 
indicating deteriorating credit quality (in other words, increasing NPL 
ratios). See Question B.Q8 in the Annex. 

47  

 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Czech Republic 

Figure 9 

Access to funding (in %) 

Access to funding improved for most banks (40% net) in the Czech Republic. Most found it easier to access funding 
from deposits by international financial institutions (IFIs), retail, and corporate clients over the last six months. The 
availability  of  local  currency  funding  also  improved.  In  contrast,  that  of  foreign  currency  funding  deteriorated, 
presumably reflecting the consequences of monetary tightening in the euro area. 

Most  banks  expect  their  funding  conditions  to  continue  to  improve  over  the  next  six  months  as  the  negative 
influence of tighter foreign currency funding dissipates.  

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100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating improved access to funding. See Question B.Q9 in the Annex. 

48 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Hungary 

Hungary 

After falling credit demand and worsening supply conditions over the last six months, banks  
in Hungary do not expect the situation to improve. They expect credit demand to decline, supply 
conditions to tighten and non-performing loan ratios to rise, especially in the corporate segment. 

Summary 

Group assessment of positioning and market potential: Most parent banks consider the Hungarian market to 
have medium potential, a worse outlook than in the previous survey round. In this aspect, Hungary trails the Czech 
Republic, Romania and Slovakia. Most banking groups (80%) consider their positioning in the Hungarian market as 
satisfactory,  while  the  remaining  20%  report  optimal  positioning.  In  terms  of  profitability,  banks  are  signalling 
deteriorating  conditions  compared  to  the  previous survey  round.  For  a large share  of  banks,  profitability  is  now 
lower compared to overall group operations.  

Hungarian banks report that credit demand decreased over the last six months (contrary to the regional average), 
and credit supply conditions tightened. For the next six months banks expect further decline in credit demand 
across most segments (again, unlike the regional average, where demand increased moderately). Credit supply is 
expected to tighten further across most segments, signalling a simultaneous deterioration of demand and supply 
conditions.  

Overall access to funding was adequate in the last six months but, unlike in the rest of the region, it is expected to 
slightly deteriorate. 

Non-performing loan (NPL) ratios improved moderately over the last six months, despite negative expectations. 
Banks report a negative outlook again, mainly because of the corporate sector. 

Credit supply and credit demand (in %) 

                       Access to funding and credit quality (in %) 

Supply (HU)
Supply (CESEE)

Demand (HU)
Demand (CESEE)

Access to funding (HU)

Access to funding (CESEE)

NPL (HU)

NPL (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: All values are net percentages. Positive values denote 
increasing (easing) demand (supply). 

Note: All values are net percentages. Access to funding: Positive 
values indicate increased access. Non-performing loans: Negative 
values indicate an increase in the NPL ratio. 

49 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Hungary 

 CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — parent bank level 

Figure 1 

Market potential and positioning (in %) 

Many of the parent banks operating in Hungary also 
have  a  presence  elsewhere  in  Central,  Eastern  and 
South-Eastern  Europe  (CESEE).  Most  parent  banks 
(60%)  consider  the  Hungarian  market  to  have 
medium  potential,  20%  perceive  a  high  potential, 
and  20%  perceive  a  low  potential.  This  outlook  is 
worse  than  the  previous  survey  round  and  places 
Hungary  behind  the  Czech  Republic,  Romania, 
Bulgaria and Slovakia, but ahead of Serbia. 

The positioning of banks in the Hungarian market is 
deemed satisfactory by 80% of banking groups and 
optimal by the other 20%, an improvement since the 
previous survey round.  

Return on assets (RoA) for local Hungarian banks is 
mostly  lower  (75%)  than  the  group  RoA  level  or 
equal  to  it  (25%),  while  return  on  equity  (RoE)  for 
local  banks  is  evenly  split:  lower  or  equal  to  the 
group RoE level. Both indicators reflect deteriorating 
conditions compared to the previous survey round. 

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

High 
20%

Optimal 
20%

Equal 
25%

Satisfactory 
80%

Lower 
75%

Medium 
60%

Low 
20%

Equal 
50%

Lower 
50%

 Market
Potential

Market
Positioning

RoA

RoE

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

RoA: return on assets (adjusted for cost of risk) compared to overall 
group operations; RoE: return on equity (adjusted for cost of equity) 
compared to overall group RoE. See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — local bank/subsidiary level 

Figure 2 

Aggregate demand developments (in %) 

Last six months (HU)
Next six months (HU)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Credit  demand  continues  to  decline  significantly: 
Hungarian  banks  reported  a  sharp  drop  in  credit 
demand over  the  last  six months,  as  predicted in  the 
previous survey round. Demand for loans in Hungary 
were below the levels seen on average in the rest of the 
region, where demand remained sustained. 

Banks expect credit demand to decrease in the next six 
in  contrast  to  the  generally  expected 
months, 
moderate increase on average in the rest of the region. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
increasing  demand.  The  two  expectations  series  (dotted  line  and 
diamonds)  are  shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the  perceptions 
series (solid line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at 
time t for the next six months are plotted on the chart at time t + 1. See 
Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

50 

 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Hungary 

Figure 3 

Demand components and segments (in %) 

Loan demand decreased more overall in the last six months than in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe as a 
whole. Housing loans demand decreased significantly – more than the average in the rest of the region – and was 
among  the  worst  performing  segments.  Demand  from  large  companies  and  consumers  remained  largely 
unchanged.  Demand  has  shifted  from  long-  to  short-term  loans.  For  the  next  six  months,  banks  expect  credit 
demand  to  decrease  again  overall,  especially  in  the  small  and  medium-sized  enterprise  (SME)  and  housing  loan 
sectors. This outlook is worse than the average expectation for the rest of the region. 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating increasing demand. See Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

Figure 4 

Factors affecting demand for loans (in %) 

Regarding the individual factors driving demand in the corporate segment, investment-related demand decreased, 
whereas demand to fund working capital remained positive. In the household segment, consumer confidence and 
consumption spending made negative contributions to loan demand.  

Over the next six months, banks expect fixed investments in the corporate sector and housing market and consumer 
confidence for households to weigh less negatively on demand. Expectations for these segments are similar for the 
region. 

Loans to enterprises

Households

Fixed
investments

Inventories and
working capital

M&A and corporate
restructuring

Debt
restructuring

Housing market
prospects

Consumer
confidence

Non-housing related
consumption
expenditure

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to demand. See Question B.Q7 in the Annex. 

51 

 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Hungary 

Last six months (HU)
Next six months (HU)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Figure 5 

Aggregate supply developments (in %) 

(indicating 

Credit  supply  conditions 
the  banks’ 
willingness  to  extend  credit)  in  Hungary  tightened 
further over the last six months, in line with expectations 
reported in the spring of 2023. Credit supply conditions 
tightened  also  in  the  rest of  the  region,  but  to  a lesser 
extent. 

Banks  expect  supply  to  tighten  further  in  the  coming 
months but to a somewhat lesser extent. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
easing supply. The two expectations series (dotted line and diamonds) 
are shifted forward to be comparable to the perceptions series (solid 
line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at time t for the 
next  six  months  are  plotted  on  the  chart  at  time  t  +  1.  See 
Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

Figure 6 

Supply components and segments (in %) 

Credit  supply  conditions  have  worsened  in  every  segment  in  the  last  six  months,  which  is  broadly  in  line  with 
developments elsewhere in the region.  

Banks project worsening conditions for the next six months overall. The expectations of banks in Hungary are more 
pessimistic than other banking markets in the region in all segments, except for consumer credit. 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  positive  values  indicating  easing  supply  conditions  and  negative  values  indicating  tighter 
conditions. See Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

52 

 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Hungary 

Figure 7 

Factors contributing to supply conditions (in %) 

The local market outlook and the local bank outlook weighed most negatively on supply conditions in the last six 
months. Of the international factors, banks report that EU regulation contributed negatively, as in previous survey 
rounds, and the group outlook contributed positively.  

Banks  expect  most  domestic  and  international  factors  to  contribute  less  negatively  in  the  next  six  months. 
Furthermore, improvement is expected in local capital constraints and in the global outlook. 

Domestic factors

International factors

Local
market
outlook

Local
bank
outlook

Local
bank
funding

Local bank
capital
constraints

Change in
local
regulation

Local
NPL
figures

Group
outlook

Global
market
outlook

Group
funding

EU
regulation

Group
capital
constraints

Group
NPL
figures

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to supply and negative values indicating a 
negative contribution. See Question B.Q4 in the Annex. 

Figure 8 

Non-performing loan ratios (in %) 

Non-performing  loan  ratios  in  Hungary  improved  in 
the  corporate  and  retail  segments  over  the  last  six 
months,  despite  pessimistic  forecasts  in  the  previous 
survey round.  

However,  banks  expect  some  deterioration  in  the 
overall  non-performing  loans  ratio  in  the  next  six 
months again, in line with the total regional average. 
the 
for  non-performing 
Expectations 
corporate sector are more negative than the regional 
average. 

loans 

in 

Total

Corporate

Retail

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  negative  values 
indicating  deteriorating  credit  quality  (in  other  words,  an  increasing 
NPL ratio). See Question B.Q8 in the Annex. 

53 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Hungary 

Figure 9 

Access to funding (in %) 

Overall access to funding for Hungarian banks remained unchanged in the last six months, except in two segments: 
Access to funding deteriorated in retail (contrary to the regional average) and foreign currency funding improved. 

A  slight  deterioration  is  expected  in  the  next  six  months.  Across  segments,  banks  in  Hungary  show  diverse 
expectations that reveal a vulnerability in retail funding, local currency funding and in the net central bank position. 
This assessment is more pessimistic than the average in the region.  

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100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating improved access to funding. See Question B.Q9 in the Annex. 

54 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Kosovo 

Kosovo 

Credit conditions are favourable: Both credit demand and supply were positive during the last six 
months. In the next six months, demand is expected to remain robust and supply conditions to be 
neutral. Banks see favourable access to funding but are pessimistic about future credit quality. 

Summary 

Group  assessment  of  positioning  and  market  potential:  All  banks  continue  to  rate  the  market  potential  in 
Kosovo* as medium and assess their market positioning as optimal. The profitability of banks remained resilient, 
despite elevated global uncertainty and fast-rising interest rates. 

Credit  demand  remained  positive  over  the  last  six  months,  despite  some  weakness  on  the  corporate  side, 
especially  among  small  and  medium-sized  enterprises,  with  demand  for  housing  loans  and  consumer  credit 
contributing positively. Banks expect loan demand to remain resilient in the next six months. 

Credit supply  improved marginally in  the last  six months,  still materially  better  than  the  regional  average,  driven 
mainly by continued lending to large companies and short-term credit. Banks expect credit supply to be neutral in 
the next six months.  

Funding conditions are positive, with positive contributions from retail and corporate deposits, and are expected to 
remain so in the next six months. Credit quality has not deteriorated but banks expect a downturn in the next six 
months across the retail and corporate segments. 

Credit supply and credit demand (in %) 

Access to funding and credit quality (in %) 

Supply (KS)
Supply (CESEE)

Demand (KS)
Demand (CESEE)

Access to funding (KS)

Access to funding (CESEE)

NPL (KS)

NPL (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: All values are net percentages. Positive values denote 
increasing (easing) demand (supply). 

Note: All values are net percentages. Access to funding: Positive 
values indicate increased access. Non-performing loans: Negative 
values indicate an increase in the NPL ratio. 

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status and it is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo 
declaration of independence. 

55  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — parent bank level 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Kosovo 

Figure 1 

Market potential and positioning  

The  profitability  of  local  subsidiary  banks  declined 
somewhat compared to previous survey periods, with 
parent  banks  evenly  split  between  equal  or  higher 
profitability  for  their  operations  in  Kosovo  compared 
to overall group operations. 

All banks continue to assess their market positioning 
as  optimal  but  rate  the  market  potential  of  Kosovo’s 
banking market as medium. 

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Medium 
100%

Optimal 
100%

Higher 
50%

Higher 
50%

Equal 
50%

Equal 
50%

 Market
Potential

Market
Positioning

RoA

RoE

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

RoA:  return  on  assets  (adjusted  for  cost  of  risk)  compared  to  overall 
group operations; RoE: return on equity (adjusted for cost of equity) 
compared to overall group RoE. See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — local bank/subsidiary level 

Figure 2 

Aggregate demand developments (in %) 

Last six months (KS)
Next six months (KS)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Credit demand remained stable and positive in Kosovo 
over the last six months. In the next six months, credit 
demand  is  expected  to  remain  broadly  unchanged 
and in line with the regional average. 

Credit demand continued to be relatively strong. After 
a  strong  recovery  (real  GDP  grew  10.7%  in  2021), 
economic  growth  moderated 
(+3.7%). 
According  to  the 
International  Monetary  Fund’s 
October  2023  World  Economic  Outlook,  Kosovo’s 
gross domestic product will grow 3.8% in 2023 and 4% 
in 2024. 

in  2022 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
increasing  demand.  The  two  expectations  series  (dotted  line  and 
diamonds)  are  shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the  perceptions 
series (solid line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at 
time t for the next six months are plotted on the chart at time t + 1. See 
Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

56 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Kosovo 

Figure 3 

Demand components and segments (in %) 

Credit demand was positive, especially for housing and consumer loans, while on the corporate side credit demand 
from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) declined and was neutral for large corporates.  

Banks in Kosovo expect credit demand to remain positive in the next six months, in line with the regional average, 
supported by a recovery in lending to enterprises and short-term financing. 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey.  

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating increasing demand. See Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

Figure 4 

Factors affecting demand for loans (in %) 

Among corporates, financing for fixed investment and inventories and working capital supported credit demand in 
the  last  six  months,  while  credit  demand  in  mergers  and  acquisitions  (M&A)  and  restructuring  was  neutral  or 
declined. Household demand for real estate contributed positively in the retail segment.  

In  the  next  six  months,  demand  is  expected  to  be  broadly  unchanged  for  both  corporates  and  housing  loans, 
consistent with a still-elevated uncertainty and financing costs. Credit demand in the retail segment is expected to 
remain subdued in the next six months, in line with the regional average.  

Loans to enterprises

Households

Fixed
investments

Inventories and
working capital

M&A and corporate
restructuring

Debt
restructuring

Housing market
prospects

Consumer
confidence

Non-housing related
consumption
expenditure

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to demand. See Question B.Q7 in the Annex. 

57  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Kosovo 

Last six months (KS)
Next six months (KS)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Figure 5 

Aggregate supply developments (in %) 

Credit  supply  conditions  in  Kosovo  (expressing  the 
willingness  of  banks  to  extend  credit  to  their  clients) 
were  favourable  in  the  last  six  months,  materially 
better  than  the  regional  average  and  better  than 
expected during the previous survey round.  

However, banks expect supply conditions to turn from 
positive to neutral in the next six months. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
easing supply. The two expectations series (dotted line and diamonds) 
are shifted forward to be comparable to the perceptions series (solid 
line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at time t for the 
next  six  months  are  plotted  on  the  chart  at  time  t  +  1.  See 
Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

Figure 6 

Supply components and segments (in %) 

Overall  supply  conditions  were  favourable  and  better  than  the  regional  average  in  the  past  six  months,  driven 
mainly by continued lending to large companies and for short-term credit. Credit supply in other market segments 
was neutral.  

Credit is expected to rebound in the next six months for lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and 
the real estate sector, while other market segments are expected to remain largely neutral. Credit supply conditions 
are expected to be in line with, or marginally better, than the regional average during the next six months. 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  positive  values  indicating  easing  supply  conditions  and  negative  values  indicating  tighter 
conditions. See Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

58 

 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Kosovo 

Figure 7 

Factors contributing to supply conditions (in %) 

Compared to the previous survey, most domestic factors — except for local bank funding — turned from negative 
to neutral, and now score better than the regional average. Among the international factors, the market outlook, 
group funding and EU regulation weighed negatively on credit supply, according to banks in Kosovo. Conversely, 
the group outlook was positive. 

In the next six months, banks in Kosovo expect most domestic and international determinants of credit supply to 
be either positive or neutral, with the notable exception of the global market outlook, which remains gloomy. 

Domestic factors

International factors

Local
market
outlook

Local
bank
outlook

Local
bank
funding

Local bank
capital
constraints

Change in
local
regulation

Local
NPL
figures

Group
outlook

Global
market
outlook

Group
funding

EU
regulation

Group
capital
constraints

Group
NPL
figures

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to supply. See Question B.Q4 in the Annex. 

Figure 8 

Non-performing loan ratios (in %) 

Total

Corporate

Retail

Survey  data  indicate  that  credit  quality  has  been 
neutral in the last six months and has improved in the 
retail  segment.  This  trend  is  better  than  the  regional 
average. 

Banks  expect  a  decline  in  the  non-performing  loan 
ratios over the next six months for both corporate and 
retail clients. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  negative  values 
indicating deteriorating credit quality (in other words increasing NPL 
ratio). See Question B.Q8 in the Annex. 

59  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Kosovo 

Figure 9 

Access to funding (in %) 

Overall access to funding remained particularly strong in Kosovo over the last six months and substantially better 
than the regional average. This was driven especially by positive contributions from retail and corporate deposits, 
while intragroup funding contributed negatively. Improved access to funding, driven by deposits, was concentrated 
on shorter maturities and in local currency. 

Banks  remain  somewhat  optimistic  about  access  to  funding  in  the  next  six  months,  particularly  regarding  retail 
deposits, while expectations about other funding sources are more conservative. Funding is expected to be more 
evenly distributed across short- and long-term maturities, and local currency funding is expected to remain positive. 

g
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f

y
c
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r
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l
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100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating improved access to funding. See Question B.Q9 in the Annex. 

60 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | North Macedonia 

North Macedonia 

Loan demand weakened, but remained robust and well above the regional average, and supply 
conditions continued to be tight. In the coming months, credit demand is expected to remain positive 
and supply to ease somewhat. The retail segments appear more affected in terms of credit demand, 
supply and credit quality. 

Summary 

Group assessment of  positioning and  market  potential: The North  Macedonian  financial  system  is  largely 
foreign-owned (over 70% of assets, loans and deposits) and parent banking groups perceive their current market 
positioning in the country as either satisfactory (50%) or optimal (50%). Banking market potential is assessed as 
medium.  Banks  report  profitability  for  local  operations,  broadly  in  line  with  profitability  at  the  group  level,  a 
deterioration since the survey’s previous round. 

Credit demand conditions continued to be positive over the last six months, with the exception of the demand 
for mortgages. Conditions are expected to slightly weaken overall for retail in the coming months but to remain 
robust, especially for companies. 

Credit supply remained tight over the last six months, with a marked decline in the housing and retail segments. In 
the coming months, supply-side conditions are expected to be neutral, slightly better than the regional average.  

Access to funding remained positive in North Macedonia over the last six months, and above the regional average, 
supported primarily by retail and corporate deposits. Funding availability is expected to remain stable in the next 
six months. Credit quality was neutral in the last six months and is expected to remain stable (though weaker on 
the retail side). 

 Credit supply and credit demand (in %) 

Access to funding and credit quality (in %) 

Supply (MK)
Supply (CESEE)

Demand (MK)
Demand (CESEE)

Access to funding (MK)

Access to funding (CESEE)

NPL (MK)

NPL (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: All values are net percentages. Positive values denote 
increasing (easing) demand (supply). 

Note: All values are net percentages. Access to funding: Positive 
values indicate increased access. Non-performing loans: Negative 
values indicate an increase in the NPL ratio. 

61 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | North Macedonia 

 CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — parent bank level 

Figure 1 

Market potential and positioning (in %) 

Foreign-controlled banks represent over 70% of assets, 
loans and deposits in North Macedonia. Some foreign 
groups  have  a  presence  in  many  Central,  Eastern  and 
South-Eastern  European  countries,  while  others  are 
concentrated in the Western Balkans. The three largest 
banks hold around 50% of total loans and 50% of total 
deposits. 

Parent banking groups operating in North Macedonia 
their  current  market  positioning  as 
perceive 
satisfactory  (50%)  or  optimal  (50%),  and  rate  the 
market potential as medium, in line with results from 
the previous survey round. 

Banks  reported  profitability  broadly  in  line  with  the 
group  level,  in  terms  of  returns  on  assets  (RoA)  and 
equity  (RoE).  This  marks  a  decline  since  the  previous 
survey round, when all surveyed banks indicated higher 
profitability domestically than at the group level.  

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Medium 
100%

Optimal 
50%

Higher 
50%

Equal 
50%

Satisfactory 
50%

Equal 
50%

Lower 
50%

 Market
Potential

Market
Positioning

RoA

RoE

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

RoA:  return  on  assets  (adjusted  for  cost  of  risk)  compared  to  overall 
group operations; RoE: return on equity (adjusted for cost of equity) 
compared to overall group RoE. See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — local bank/subsidiary level 

Figure 2 

Aggregate demand developments (in %) 

Last six months (MK)
Next six months (MK)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Credit  demand  conditions  deteriorated  somewhat 
over  the  last  six  months  but  remained  positive  and 
were materially better than the regional average. 

Credit demand is expected to remain stable in the next 
six months, in light of a continued economic recovery. 
Gross domestic product grew 3.9% in 2021 and 2.2% in 
2022  and  growth  is  projected  at  2.5%  in  2023, 
according to the International Monetary Fund’s World 
Economic Outlook, October 2023. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
increasing  demand.  The  two  expectations  series  (dotted  line  and 
diamonds)  are shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the perceptions 
series (solid line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at 
time t for the next six months are plotted on the chart at time t + 1. See 
Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

62 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | North Macedonia 

Figure 3 

Demand components and segments (in %) 

Credit demand was positive in the last six months, markedly better than the regional average. This trend was mainly 
driven by small and medium firms (SMEs) and large corporates. A notable exception was the weakening in demand 
for housing loans. Credit demand was concentrated on long-term funding and local currency lending. 

Banks in North Macedonia remain optimistic about demand in the next six months, with most business segments 
expected to contribute positively, especially in the corporate sector.  

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating increasing demand. See Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

Figure 4 

Factors affecting demand for loans (in %) 

Fixed investments, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and restructuring were among the main drivers of positive credit 
demand during the last six months, while the other factors affecting corporates’ demand for loans were neutral. The 
housing market and consumer confidence weighed negatively on the retail market.  

In  the  next  six  months,  banks  expect  some  positive  contributions  to  credit  demand  from  corporates’  fixed 
investments. In contrast, contributions from households are expected to be negative in both mortgage and retail 
loans.  

Loans to enterprises

Households

Fixed
investments

Inventories and
working capital

M&A and corporate
restructuring

Debt
restructuring

Housing market
prospects

Consumer
confidence

Non-housing related
consumption
expenditure

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 
Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to demand. See Question B.Q7 in the Annex. 

63 

 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | North Macedonia 

Last six months (MK)
Next six months (MK)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Figure 5 

Aggregate supply developments (in %) 

Credit  supply  in  North  Macedonia  remained  negative 
over  the 
last  six  months,  somewhat  worse  than 
anticipated in the previous survey round but in line with 
the regional average. 

Supply-side conditions are expected to be neutral in the 
next  six  months,  slightly  better  than  the  regional 
average. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  positive  values 
indicating  easing  supply.  The  two  expectations  series  (dotted  line 
and  diamonds)  are  shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the 
perceptions  series 
In  other  words, 
expectations reported at time t for the next six months are plotted 
on the chart at time t + 1. See Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

line  and  circles). 

(solid 

Figure 6 

Supply components and segments (in %) 

All  business  segments  were  affected  by  tight  credit  supply  conditions,  including  small  and  medium-sized 
enterprises (SMEs) and large companies, house purchases and consumer credit. While this trend was in line with the 
regional average for corporate clients, it was markedly worse for the housing and consumer loan segments in North 
Macedonia compared to the region, though less so than in the previous survey round. 

In the next six months, supply conditions in the housing and retail segments are expected to remain tight in North 
Macedonia, worse than the regional average, and neutral in other market segments.   

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  positive  values  indicating  easing  supply  conditions  and  negative  values  indicating  tighter 
conditions. See Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

64 

 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | North Macedonia 

Figure 7 

Factors contributing to supply conditions (in %) 

Various domestic factors contributed negatively to supply conditions, including the market and banks’ outlook, local 
funding conditions, and regulatory changes. International factors affecting banks’ credit supply were mostly neutral, 
broadly in line with the regional average. 

In the next six months, banks in North Macedonia expect a further deterioration of some factors, with domestic and 
EU regulatory changes, and in particular the local market outlook, among the negative factors.  

Domestic factors

International factors

Local
market
outlook

Local
bank
outlook

Local
bank
funding

Local bank
capital
constraints

Change in
local
regulation

Local
NPL
figures

Group
outlook

Global
market
outlook

Group
funding

EU
regulation

Group
capital
constraints

Group
NPL
figures

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to supply and negative values indicating tighter 
conditions. See Question B.Q4 in the Annex. 

Total

Corporate

Retail

Figure 8 

Non-performing loan ratios (in %) 

Credit quality during the past six months was broadly 
neutral,  a  decline  compared  to  the  previous  survey 
results and below the regional average. 

For the next six months, banks expect non-performing 
loan ratios to remain broadly unchanged overall, while 
credit quality for retail clients is expected to decline. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  negative  values 
indicating deteriorating credit quality (in other words, increasing NPL 
ratio). See Question B.Q8 in the Annex. 

65 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | North Macedonia 

Figure 9 

Access to funding (in %) 

Access to funding for banks in North Macedonia remained positive over the last six months. As in the previous survey 
round,  retail  and  corporate  funding  were  particularly  strong,  while  intragroup  funding  contributed  negatively. 
Access  to  funding  was  concentrated  on  long-term  sources,  and  both  local  and  foreign  funding  contributed 
positively. 

Over the next six months, the outlook for access to funding remains positive, with the corporate and retail funding 
segments making the largest contributions. 

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100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating improved access to funding. See Question B.Q9 in the Annex. 

66 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Poland 

Poland 

Though overall credit conditions in Poland remained tight in the past six months, banks expect an 
increase in loan demand in the next six months. This trend seems to be driven by a recovery in 
mortgage financing and an improvement in the quality of retail loans. Banks remain cautious, given 
the uncertain market outlook and tight capital constraints.  

Summary 

Group  assessment  of  positioning  and  market  potential:  Parent  banks  operating  in  Poland  consider  their 
positioning in the Polish market as satisfactory. However, all banks reported that their local operations in Poland 
were less profitable than overall group operations, contrary to the regional average.  

Credit demand in Poland remains weak but there have been signs of recovery in the last six months. On balance, 
more banks expect credit demand to improve than to deteriorate in the next six months, which is better than the 
trend in the rest of region. Housing loans seem to be a key driver for this optimism.  

Credit supply conditions in Poland have remained neutral over the last six months. While they are expected to 
remain in the neutral territory going forward, local market outlook and tight capital constraints are listed as the key 
impediments to credit supply in the next six months.   

Overall access to funding continued to be favourable for banks in Poland in the last six months, mostly driven by a 
surge in retail deposits on the back of high interest rates. Funding conditions are expected to remain positive.  

Credit quality improved in the retail segment and it was neutral in the corporate segment in the last six months. 
Banks expect credit quality to stabilise in the next six months. 

Credit supply and credit demand (in %) 

Access to funding and credit quality (in %) 

Supply (PL)
Supply (CESEE)

Demand (PL)
Demand (CESEE)

Access to funding (PL)
NPL (PL)

Access to funding (CESEE)
NPL (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: All values are net percentages. Positive values denote 
increasing (easing) demand (supply). 

Note: All values are net percentages. Access to funding: Positive 
values indicate increased access. Non-performing loans: Negative 
values indicate an increase in the NPL ratio. 

67 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — parent bank level 

Figure 1 

Market potential and positioning (in %) 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Poland 

Parent  banks  operating  in  Poland  plan  to  maintain 
operations  in  the  country at  their  current  level,  as  all 
respondents  consider  their  market  positioning  to  be 
satisfactory. 

Major international players with a presence in Poland 
(from  Spain,  Portugal,  Netherlands,  France)  do  not 
have subsidiaries elsewhere in the region, contrary to 
many  other  pan-regional  banks  operating  in  various 
countries in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe 
(from Austria, Italy, Hungary, Belgium, etc.).  

The  groups  in  Poland  all  assess  the  potential  of  the 
local  market  as  medium.  However,  measured  by 
returns  on  assets  (RoA)  and  equity  (RoE), 
local 
operations  in  Poland  are  less  profitable  than  at  the 
group  level,  contrary  to  banks  in  most  of  the  other 
countries in the region.  

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Medium 
100%

Satisfactory 
100%

Lower 
100%

Lower 
100%

 Market
Potential

Market
Positioning

RoA

RoE

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

RoA:  return  on  assets  (adjusted  for  cost  of  risk)  compared  to  overall 
group operations; RoE: return on equity (adjusted for cost of equity) 
compared to overall group RoE. See Question A.Q1. in the Annex. 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — local bank/subsidiary level 

Figure 2 

Aggregate demand developments (in %) 

While  credit  demand  conditions  in  Poland  remain 
tight,  some  banks  started  reporting  an  increase  in 
demand from their clients over the last six months. The 
trend is expected to continue in the near future, with 
more banks expecting increasing credit demand in the 
next  six  months.  These  developments  can  be 
attributed  to  two  subsequent  interest  rate  cuts  in 
September  and  October  2023,  and  additional  credit 
support measures provided by the Polish authorities in 
the  second  half  of  2023  –  particularly  towards 
mortgage holders.  

In summary, while credit conditions remain tighter on 
balance than in the wider region, Polish banks appear 
to be more optimistic going forward than other banks 
in the region.  

Last six months (PL)
Next six months (PL)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
increasing  demand.  The  two  expectations  series  (dotted  line  and 
diamonds)  are  shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the  perceptions 
series (solid line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at 
time t for the next six months are plotted on the chart at time t + 1. See 
Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

68 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Poland 

Figure 3 

Demand components and segments (in %) 

On balance, credit demand has declined in Poland in the last six months, driven by reduced interest among larger 
firms, and clients looking to purchase houses (typically long-term credit).  

The subdued credit demand is expected to recover in the next six months, predominantly driven by an expected 
increase  in  the  number of  mortgage  applications.  Starting  from  a  low  base,  it  is  too early  to  say  if  this  signals  a 
reversal in the mortgage lending cycle.  

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating increasing demand. See Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

Figure 4 

Factors affecting demand for loans (in %) 

Polish banks report negative or neutral demand contribution from both households and corporates, except for debt 
restructuring transactions, in the last six months.  

Housing market prospects appear to be one of the key drivers of the expected increased demand in the next six 
months, being substantially above the regional trends, while most other categories will remain neutral. 

Loans to enterprises

Households

Fixed
investments

Inventories and
working capital

M&A and corporate
restructuring

Debt
restructuring

Housing market
prospects

Consumer
confidence

Non-housing related
consumption
expenditure

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to demand. See Question B.Q7 in the Annex. 

69 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure 5 

Aggregate supply developments (in %) 

supply  conditions 

Credit 
remained 
unchanged  over  the  last  six  months.  They  can  be 
described as neutral on balance, with as many banks 
reporting easing of credit supply as tightening. 

in  Poland 

This  pattern  is  expected  to  continue  in  the  next  six 
months, similar to the regional average.   

CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Poland 

Last six months (PL)
Next six months (PL)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
easing supply. The two expectations series (dotted line and diamonds) 
are shifted forward to be comparable to the perceptions series (solid 
line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at time t for the 
next  six  months  are  plotted  on  the  chart  at  time  t  +  1.  See 
Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

Figure 6 

Supply components and segments (in %) 

Despite  credit  reported  as  tightening  across  most  market  segments,  overall  credit  supply  conditions  remained 
neutral in the last six months, thanks to the easing of mortgage lending.  

In  the  coming  months,  banks  anticipate  supply  conditions  to  be  neutral  across  the  market  segments.  The  gap 
between Polish banks and other banks in the region regarding future supply conditions is gradually narrowing.  

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  positive  values  indicating  easing  supply  conditions  (and  negative  values  indicating  tighter 
conditions). See Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

70 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Poland 

Figure 7 

Factors contributing to supply conditions (in %) 

Banks  reported  that  credit  supply  conditions  in  Poland  were  neutral  despite  restraints  from  both  domestic  and 
international factors. Capital constraints within banking groups were the only factor to ease in the last six months. 
Local capital constraints were tight, however, and are expected to remain tight in the coming months. Among the 
international factors, EU regulation contributed negatively, as reported also by other banks in the region.  

Local market outlook will continue to weigh down on the supply conditions in the next six months. 

Domestic factors

International factors

Local
market
outlook

Local
bank
outlook

Local
bank
funding

Local bank
capital
constraints

Change in
local
regulation

Local
NPL
figures

Group
outlook

Global
market
outlook

Group
funding

EU
regulation

Group
capital
constraints

Group
NPL
figures

60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart shows  net  percentages,  with  positive  values indicating  a positive contribution  to  supply  (and  negative  values  indicating 
tighter conditions). See Question B.Q4 in the Annex. 

Figure 8 

Non-performing loan ratios (in %) 

Total

Corporate

Retail

Overall credit quality improved in Poland in the last six 
months, predominantly driven by the improvement in 
the retail sector.  

Credit quality is expected to remain stable in the next 
six  months,  both  in  the  corporate  and  retail  sectors. 
is  modestly  better  than  the  credit  quality 
This 
conditions expected in the rest of the region. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  negative  values 
indicating deteriorating credit quality (in other words, increasing NPL 
ratios). See Question B.Q8 in the Annex. 

71 

 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Poland 

Figure 9 

Access to funding (in %) 

Polish banks’ total access to funding improved in the last six months, with better access reported mostly for retail 
deposits, both in the short term and the long term.  

Banks expect that access to funding will continue to improve in the next six months.  

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100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating improved access to funding. See Question B.Q9 in the Annex. 

72 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Romania 

Romania 

Credit demand remained strong in Romania over the last six months, driven mainly by corporates. In 
contrast, credit supply conditions deteriorated further. While banking market potential remains high, 
the system’s profitability started to deteriorate, in line with the regional trend. 

Summary 

Group assessment of positioning and market potential: Most surveyed banks perceive the Romanian banking 
market as having high potential — in the third best position in the region. Most banks also describe their market 
positioning in Romania as satisfactory. Nevertheless, banks’ profitability in Romania deteriorated compared to the 
previous survey round, in line with the regional trend. 

Credit demand improved further over the last six months — driven particularly by robust demand in the corporate 
segment. Demand for housing loans remained unchanged. Banks expect overall credit demand to continue to grow 
over the next six months. 

Credit supply conditions continued to tighten in the last six months across the board following patterns observed 
throughout Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. Banks in Romania expect credit supply to stay unchanged 
over the next six months. 

Access  to  funding  continued  to  improve  over  the  last  six  months  after  a  deterioration  in  the  first  half  of  2022. 
Funding conditions are expected to be good in the next six months.  

Credit quality in Romania remained strong, contrary to previous expectations, and no major change is expected 
for the next period.  

Credit supply and credit demand (in %) 

Access to funding and credit quality (in %) 

Supply (RO)
Supply (CESEE)

Demand (RO)
Demand (CESEE)

Access to funding (RO)

Access to funding (CESEE)

NPL (RO)

NPL (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: All values are net percentages. Positive values denote 
increasing (easing) demand (supply). 

Note: All values are net percentages. Access to funding: Positive 
values indicate increased access. Non-performing loans: Negative 
values indicate an increase in the NPL ratio. 

73 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Romania 

 CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — parent bank level 

Figure 1 

Market potential and positioning (in %) 

Romania’s  banking  market  continues  to  have  high 
potential, according to most survey participants. This 
is also reflected in the recent expansion of UniCredit, 
one of the major groups operating in the region, which 
bought  90% of  Alpha  Banks’  Romanian  business  and 
became  the  third  biggest  player  in  the  local  market. 
Romania’s  market  potential  is  among  the  highest  in 
the region, but it decreased slightly from the previous 
survey  round,  when  two-thirds  of  parent  banks 
considered  it  high.  The  ratio  of  banks  reporting 
satisfactory  market  positioning  also  decreased  since 
the last survey round (when it was 67%).  

to  overall  group 
Bank  profitability  compared 
operations  deteriorated.  For  most  banking  groups, 
Romanian  operations  were  less  profitable  compared 
to the overall group, while in the previous period 75% 
of  banks  said  Romanian  operations  were  higher  in 
terms of return on assets. 

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

High 
57%

Satisfactory 
57%

Medium 
29%

Low 
14%

 Market
Potential

Niche player 
14%

Weak 
29%

Market
Positioning

Higher 
20%

Equal 
20%

Lower 
60%

Higher 
17%

Equal 
50%

Lower 
33%

RoA

RoE

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

RoA:  return  on  assets  (adjusted  for  cost  of  risk)  compared  to  overall 
group operations; RoE: return on equity (adjusted for cost of equity) 
compared to overall group RoE. See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — local bank/subsidiary level 

Last six months (RO)
Next six months (RO)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Figure 2 

Aggregate demand developments (in %) 

Credit  demand  in  Romania  was  slightly  above  the 
expectations  expressed  in  the  last  survey  round. 
Increased uncertainty over the winter caused by rising 
energy prices did not turn into an economic recession. 
Demand  remained  robust  and  was  above  values 
recorded  in  the  rest  of  Central,  Eastern  and  South-
Eastern Europe.  

Banks  in  Romania  continue  to  be  optimistic  about 
credit  demand  growth  in  the  next  six  months.  The 
expected increase in demand likely reflects the strong 
wage  and  profit  growth  recorded  in  2022,  which 
almost kept up with inflation. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
increasing  demand.  The  two  expectations  series  (dotted  line  and 
diamonds)  are  shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the  perceptions 
series (solid line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at 
time t for the next six months are plotted on the chart at time t + 1. See 
Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

74 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Romania 

Figure 3 

Demand components and segments (in %) 

Overall demand for credit increased over the last six months. Demand from companies and consumer credit drove 
the increase, while credit demand for house purchases remained unchanged. Demand increased for all segments in 
terms of maturity and currency denomination. 

Over  the  next  six  months,  banks  expect  demand  to  continue  growing,  but  to  a  lesser  extent,  driven  mainly  by 
demand for large companies and long-term loans. Demand for mortgage loans is also expected to recover slightly. 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating increasing demand. See Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

Figure 4 

Factors affecting demand for loans (in %) 

Investments in fixed assets and inventories were responsible for the increase in demand on the corporate side, while 
all household factors contributed negatively. The same factors are expected to contribute to loan demand in the 
same way in the coming months. Demand for loans related to debt restructuring is expected to pick up over the 
next six months. 

Loans to enterprises

Households

Fixed
investments

Inventories and
working capital

M&A and corporate
restructuring

Debt
restructuring

Housing market
prospects

Consumer
confidence

Non-housing related
consumption
expenditure

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  positive  values  indicating  a  positive  contribution  to  demand.  M&A  refers  to  mergers  and 
acquisitions. See Question B.Q7 in the Annex. 

75 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Romania 

Last six months (RO)
Next six months (RO)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Figure 5 

Aggregate supply developments (in %) 

Credit  supply  conditions  deteriorated  for  the  second 
period in a row, following the post-COVID-19 easing. 

Rising rates dampened the ability of banks to finance 
themselves  at  low  rates,  and  this  was  mirrored  in  a 
tightening of bank loan supply. Banks expect a further 
tightening in  the  supply  of  credit  during  the  next  six 
months.  

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
easing supply. The two expectations series (dotted line and diamonds) 
are shifted forward to be comparable to the perceptions series (solid 
line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at time t for the 
next  six  months  are  plotted  on  the  chart  at  time  t + 1.  See 
Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

Figure 6 

Supply components and segments (in %) 

Credit  supply  conditions  deteriorated  for  corporates  and  mortgage  loans  and  remained  the  same  for  consumer 
loans.  

In the next six months, banks expect most of the components and segments of loan supply not to change, except 
for conditions for long-term and foreign currency loans, which could tighten.  

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating easing supply conditions. See Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

76 

 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Romania 

Figure 7 

Factors contributing to supply conditions (in %) 

The contribution of domestic factors to supply conditions was mixed. On the one hand, local bank outlook and non-
performing  loan  (NPL)  figures  continued  to  contribute  positively  to  credit  supply.  On  the  other,  the  Romanian 
market outlook and poor local bank funding conditions contributed negatively to credit supply, as in the previous 
period. The contribution of domestic factors is expected to remain the same or deteriorate over the next six months.  

Most of the international factors contributed negatively to supply conditions, apart from the global market outlook 
and capital constraints, which did not change. For the next period, the same factors are expected to be the main 
drivers. 

Domestic factors

International factors

Local
market
outlook

Local
bank
outlook

Local
bank
funding

Local bank
capital
constraints

Change in
local
regulation

Local
NPL
figures

Group
outlook

Global
market
outlook

Group
funding

EU
regulation

Group
capital
constraints

Group
NPL
figures

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to supply. See Question B.Q4 in the Annex. 

Figure 8 

Non-performing loan ratios (in %) 

Despite  an  expectation  of  deteriorating  non-
performing  loan  ratios  recorded  in  the  last  survey 
round, overall credit quality in Romania improved, like 
the regional average. Improvements were driven by the 
corporate  and 
retail  segments.  Banks’  negative 
expectations  regarding  loan  performance  did  not 
materialise in Romania or in the region. 

Banks expect no major change in non-performing loan 
ratios  over  the  next  six  months.  Credit  quality  is 
expected  to decrease  most  in  the  retail  sector  and to 
improve  slightly 
in  the  corporate  segment.  The 
continued 
expectation  of  deteriorating  non-
performing  loan  ratios  is  likely  related  to  persistent 
the  economic 
inflation,  high  uncertainty,  and 
slowdown. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Total

Corporate

Retail

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with negative values indicating 
deteriorating credit quality (in other words, increasing NPL ratios). See 
Question B.Q8 in the Annex. 

77 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Romania 

Figure 9 

Access to funding (in %) 

Access to funding for banks in Romania improved over the last six months. Both short-term and long-term funding 
improved. Notably, the retail funding, local currency funding and net central bank position recorded significant 
improvement, while international financial institution (IFI) funding deteriorated slightly. 

In the next six months, retail funding is expected to improve further, in line with the regional average. Most of the 
funding sources will remain robust. 

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100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating improved access to funding. See Question B.Q9 in the Annex. 

78 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Serbia 

Serbia 

The gap between credit demand and supply has narrowed, with the simultaneous decline in credit 
demand (especially for housing loans) and easing of supply. Credit quality deteriorated and is 
expected to worsen, more than the regional average.   

Summary 

Group  assessment  of  positioning  and  market  potential:  The  Serbian  banking  market  is  considered  more 
attractive now than six months ago. Market potential is considered low for 25% of parent banking groups and 
medium for 75%. Similarly, 75% of parent banks now assess their market positioning in Serbia as satisfactory, and 
about 25% as optimal. In terms of profitability, 66% of banks report that return on assets (RoA) and return on 
equity (RoE) for local operations is equal to or higher than that of overall group operations. It is noteworthy that 
in  March  2023  the  Greek  bank  Eurobank  sold  its  Serbian  subsidiary  for  €280  million  to  AIK  Banka,  which  has 
become the second-largest banking group in the country. 

Loan demand declined over the last six months, especially for mortgages, and is expected to remain weak in the 
next six months. 

Credit supply conditions, indicating the banks’ willingness to provide credit, eased over the last six months, and 
are expected to remain broadly unchanged in the next six months, marginally better than the regional average.  

Banks in Serbia expect further improvements in access to funding over the next six months, as retail and corporate 
deposits have proved resilient to market gyrations. Credit quality has been deteriorating and banks anticipate a 
further deterioration for both retail and corporate clients. 

Credit supply and credit demand 

Access to funding and credit quality 

Supply (RS)
Supply (CESEE)

Demand (RS)
Demand (CESEE)

Access to funding (RS)

Access to funding (CESEE)

NPL (RS)

NPL (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: All indicators are in net percentages. Supply/demand: 
Positive figures refer to increasing (easing) demand (supply). 

Note: All indicators in net percentages. Access to funding: Positive 
values indicate increased access to funding. Non-performing 
loans: Negative figures indicate increasing NPL ratios. 

79 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Serbia 

 CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — parent bank level 

Figure 1 

Market potential and positioning  

The  Serbian  banking  sector  is  characterised  by  a 
significant  presence  of  foreign  banks  (representing 
more than 80% of total banking assets in 2022). These 
include large European banking groups that operate in 
various  Central  and  Eastern  European  countries.  The 
Serbian banking market is perceived as more attractive 
now  than  it  was  six  months  ago.  Market  potential  is 
considered low for 25% of parent banking groups and 
medium for 75%. Similarly, 75% of parent banks now 
assess 
in  Serbia  as 
satisfactory, and about 25% as optimal (vs. 20% in the 
previous survey round). 

their  market  positioning 

In  terms  of  profitability,  33%  of  banks  report  that 
return  on  assets  (RoA)  and  equity  (RoE)  for  local 
operations is higher than for overall group operations, 
marking  a  decline  compared  to  previous  survey 
results.  

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Optimal 
25%

Higher 
33%

Higher 
33%

Satisfactory 
75%

Equal 
33%

Lower 
33%

Equal 
33%

Lower 
33%

Medium 
75%

Low 
25%

 Market
Potential

Market
Positioning

RoA

RoE

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

RoA:  return  on  assets  (adjusted  for  cost  of  risk)  compared  to  overall 
group operations; RoE: return on equity (adjusted for cost of equity) 
compared to overall group RoE. See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — local bank/subsidiary level 

Figure 2 

Aggregate demand developments (in %) 

Last six months (RS)
Next six months (RS)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Loan demand in Serbia declined markedly and turned 
negative over the last six months, below the regional 
average  and  below  expectations  in  the  previous 
survey round. 

Credit  demand  expectations  for  the  next  six  months 
indicate  that  loan  demand  will  remain  compressed 
and  below  the  regional  average.  Serbia’s  economic 
growth  in  2023  is  expected  at  2%,  and  to  accelerate 
during  the  following  years,  according  to  the  October 
IMF World Economic Outlook. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
increasing  demand.  The  two  expectations  series  (dotted  line  and 
diamonds)  are  shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the  perceptions 
series (solid line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at 
time t for the next six months are plotted on the chart at time t + 1. See 
Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

80 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Serbia 

Figure 3 

Demand components and segments (in %) 

Credit demand over the last six months was not as resilient in Serbia as in the rest of the region, and this trend is 
expected to persist over the next six months. Credit appetite from small firms (SMEs) has been weak, and household 
demand  for  mortgage  loans  deteriorated  substantially  compared  to  the  previous  survey  round,  well  below  the 
regional average. Credit demand for long-term and foreign currency borrowing also contributed negatively. 

Expectations for the next six months suggest that credit demand will remain weak overall and below the regional 
average.   

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating increasing demand. See Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

Figure 4 

Factors affecting demand for loans (in %) 

Loan demand for fixed investments and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) remained weak on the corporate side, while 
loan  demand  for  inventories  and  working  capital  and  debt  restructuring  became  neutral  (from  positive  in  the 
previous survey round). Credit demand on the retail side was also weak across the board, especially for housing 
projects. Banks expect credit demand to normalise in the next six months and return to neutral across the various 
categories. 

Loans to enterprises

Households

Fixed
investments

Inventories and
working capital

M&A and corporate
restructuring

Debt
restructuring

Housing market
prospects

Consumer
confidence

Non-housing related
consumption
expenditure

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to demand. See Question B.Q7 in the Annex. 

81 

 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Serbia 

Last six months (RS)
Next six months (RS)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

Figure 6 

Aggregate supply developments (in %) 

Credit supply eased somewhat in the last six months, 
more than expected in the past survey round, and has 
been looser than the regional average. 

In  the  next  six  months,  credit  supply  conditions  are 
expected  to  remain  broadly  unchanged,  in  line  with 
the regional trend, as financial conditions locally and 
internationally benefit from a pause in the tightening 
cycle. The central bank of Serbia raised its policy rate 
to 6.5% in July 2023 and has been on hold since. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
easing supply. The two expectations series (dotted line and diamonds) 
are shifted forward to be comparable to the perceptions series (solid 
line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at time t for the 
next  six  months  are  plotted  on  the  chart  at  time  t + 1.  See 
Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

Figure 6 

Supply components and segments (in %) 

Credit  supply  was  neutral  over  the  last  six  months,  marking  an  improvement  compared  to  the  previous  survey 
round.  The  small  firm  (SME),  mortgage  and  consumer  loans,  and  foreign  currency  lending  segments  remained 
negative,  broadly  in  line  with  average  trends  in  the  region.  Most  components  of  credit  supply  conditions  are 
expected to be neutral over the next six months, but retail is expected to suffer tight credit conditions.  

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  positive  values  indicating  easing  supply  conditions  and  negative  values  indicating  tighter 
conditions. See Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

82 

 
 
 
 
  
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Serbia 

Figure 7 

Factors contributing to supply conditions (in %) 

Both  domestic  and  international  factors  contributed  to  the  deterioration  of  supply  conditions  over  the  last  six 
months.  The  outlook for  the  local  market  and  local banks  deteriorated  compared  to  the  previous  survey  round. 
Among international factors, changes in EU regulation remained the most significant negative contributor to credit 
supply conditions in Serbia, in line with the regional average. 

The same factors are expected to continue constraining supply conditions also in the next six months. 

Domestic factors

International factors

Local
market
outlook

Local
bank
outlook

Local
bank
funding

Local bank
capital
constraints

Change in
local
regulation

Local
NPL
figures

Group
outlook

Global
market
outlook

Group
funding

EU
regulation

Group
capital
constraints

Group
NPL
figures

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to supply. See Question B.Q4 in the Annex. 

Figure 8 

Non-performing loan ratios (in %) 

In  line  with  pessimistic  expectations  in  the  previous 
survey round, banks in Serbia reported a deterioration in 
credit quality over the last six months, in contrast to the 
regional trend.  

For  the  next  six  months,  banks  anticipate  a  further 
deterioration  of  credit  quality,  with  non-performing 
loans  expected  to  increase  in  the  corporate  and  retail 
segments. 

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Total

Corporate

Retail

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with negative values indicating 
deteriorating  credit  quality  (in  other  words,  increasing  NPL  ratio).  See 
Question B.Q8 in the Annex. 

83 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Serbia 

Figure 9 

Access to funding (in %) 

Overall  access  to  funding  was  neutral  in  the  last  six  months,  with  positive  contributions  from  corporate  and  retail 
funding, in line with the regional average. Positive contributions to banks’ funding conditions were evenly split across 
short- and long-term funding, and local and foreign currency funding. 

Banks expect an improvement in access to funding over the next six months, in line with the regional average. Retail 
deposits and funding from international financial institutions (IFIs) are expected to be positive drivers. 

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c
n
e
r
r
u
c
n
g
i
e
r
o
F

g
n

i

d
n
u
f

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating improved access to funding. See Question B.Q9 in the Annex. 

84 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Slovakia 

Slovakia 

Credit demand remained unchanged on balance, halting the reported decline in the previous survey 
round. In contrast, supply continued to tighten, driven by tighter funding conditions. Credit quality 
has held up much better but is expected to fall over the coming six months.  

Summary 

Group assessment of positioning and market potential: The commitment of banking groups to Slovakia remains 
solid.  Half  of  parent  banks  regard  Slovakia’s  market  potential  as  high.  Most  see  little  reason  to  change  their 
positioning.  

On balance, banks reported that demand for loans remained unchanged over the last six months, after most 
reported  a  decline  six  months  earlier.  A  particularly  large  majority  of  banks  reported  lower  demand  for 
mortgages,  arguably  possibly  reflecting  increasing  interest  rates,  and  the  cooling  of  the  residential  property 
market. Their assessment of mortgage demand is more negative than that of their peers in the rest of the region. 
Banks expect the deterioration to continue. 

Most banks reported that their credit supply continued to tighten over the last six months. Both domestic and 
international  factors  contributed  to  the  decline  in  loan  supply.  Most  banks  pointed  to  deteriorating  funding 
conditions, presumably reflecting the increase in the European Central Bank’s official interest rates. The outlook 
of banks is somewhat more optimistic and in line with the rest of the region. 

Access to funding changed little over the last six months and is expected to remain unchanged on balance. 
Credit quality held up better than expected and remained unchanged in the last six months. Banks expect non-
performing loan (NPL) ratios to deteriorate again over the next six months, due to their corporate business.  

Credit supply and credit demand (in %) 

Access to funding and credit quality (in %) 

Supply (SK)
Supply (CESEE)

Demand (SK)
Demand (CESEE)

Access to funding (SK)

Access to funding (CESEE)

NPL (SK)

NPL (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: All values are net percentages. Positive values denote 
increasing (easing) demand (supply). 

Note: All values are net percentages. Access to funding: Positive 
values indicate increased access. Non-performing loans: Negative 
values indicate an increase in the NPL ratio. 

85 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — parent bank level 

Market potential and positioning (in %) 

Figure 1 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Slovakia 

Most  banks  in  Slovakia  belong  to  groups  with  a 
presence  elsewhere  in  the  region  (such  as  Erste, 
UniCredit,  Intesa  Sanpaolo  and  KBC).  Parent  banks’ 
ratings of market potential are positive, and all banks 
appear  content  with  their  market  positioning  in 
Slovakia. 

The returns on assets (RoA) and on equity (RoE) of these 
subsidies are not unlike those in the rest of the region. 

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

High 
50%

Medium 
50%

Optimal 
25%

Higher 
33%

Higher 
33%

Satisfactory 
75%

Equal 
33%

Lower 
33%

Equal 
33%

Lower 
33%

 Market
Potential

Market
Positioning

RoA

RoE

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

RoA:  return  on  assets  (adjusted  for  cost  of  risk)  compared  to  overall 
group operations; RoE: return on equity (adjusted for cost of equity) 
compared to overall group RoE. See Question A.Q1 in the Annex. 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey results — local bank/subsidiary level 

Figure 2 

Aggregate demand developments (in %) 

Last six months (SK)
Next six months (SK)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

The demand for loans at banks in Slovakia appears to 
have stabilised after a net decline in the preceding 
review period. Loan demand remained unchanged in 
general over the last six months. 

Most banks in Slovakia expect demand to recover 
slightly over the next six months, similarly to the rest of 
the region.  

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
increasing  demand.  The  two  expectations  series  (dotted  line  and 
diamonds)  are  shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the  perceptions 
series (solid line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at 
time t for the next six months are plotted on the chart at time t + 1. See 
Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

86 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Slovakia 

Figure 3 

Demand components and segments (in %) 

Other than for mortgages, demand for loans remained generally unchanged over the last six months. Almost all 
banks reported lower demand for mortgages, possibly reflecting higher interest rates, lower real incomes and the 
cooling of the residential property market, where prices started to decline towards the end of 2022. Slovakian banks 
assess  mortgage  demand  more  negatively  than  their  peers  in  the  region  and  they  expect  the  deterioration  to 
continue over the next six months. 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating increasing demand. See Question B.Q5 in the Annex. 

Figure 4 

Factors affecting demand for loans (in %) 

Most  banks  reported  that housing market  prospects,  declining  consumer  confidence,  and declining  demand  for 
fixed investments were the main drivers of weak demand for loans. Banks had anticipated this weakening six months 
earlier. Over the next six months, these factors are expected to be less of a drag on loan demand.  

Overall,  the  picture is  a  bit  more  negative  than in  the  rest  of  the  region.  This  may  reflect  the later  tightening  of 
monetary policy in euro area countries compared to non-euro economies in the region.  

Loans to enterprises

Households

Fixed
investments

Inventories and
working capital

M&A and corporate
restructuring

Debt
restructuring

Housing market
prospects

Consumer
confidence

Non-housing related
consumption
expenditure

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to demand. See Question B.Q7 in the Annex. 

87 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 5 

Aggregate supply developments (in %) 

that 

reported 

Most  banks 
supply  conditions 
(indicating  the  banks’  willingness  to  extend  credit) 
continued  to  tighten  over  the  last  six  months.  This 
contrasts  with  their  expectations  six  months  ago, 
when they had anticipated a slight relaxation of loan 
supply.  

On  balance,  banks  expect  credit  supply  to  remain 
unchanged over the next six months, like banks in the 
rest of the region. 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Slovakia 

Last six months (SK)
Next six months (SK)

Last six months (CESEE)
Next six months (CESEE)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Apr'19
Sep'19

Oct'19
Mar'20

Apr'20
Sep'20

Oct'20
Mar'21

Apr'21
Sep'21

Oct'21
Mar'22

Apr'22
Sep'22

Oct'22
Mar'23

Apr'23
Sep'23

Oct'23
Mar'24

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating 
an  easing  supply.  The  two  expectations  series  (dotted  line  and 
diamonds)  are  shifted  forward  to  be  comparable  to  the  perceptions 
series (solid line and circles). In other words, expectations reported at 
time t for the next six months are plotted on the chart at time t + 1. See 
Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

Figure 6 

Supply components and segments (in %) 

The decline of credit supply conditions in the last six months affected almost all product segments. Interestingly, 
supply of mortgages did not generally tighten. Banks attribute the sharp decline in the volume of mortgage lending 
from 2022 to 2023 to the demand for mortgages.  

Banks do not expect changes to credit supply in the next six months. This is similar to the assessment of other banks 
in the region. 

Overall

SMEs

Large
companies

House
purchase

Consumer
credit

Short-
term

Long-
term

Local
currency

Foreign
currency

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  positive  values  indicating  easing  supply  conditions  (and  negative  values  indicating  tighter 
conditions). See Question B.Q1 in the Annex. 

88 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Slovakia 

Figure 7 

Factors contributing to supply conditions (in %) 

Both  domestic  and  international  factors  contributed  to  the  decline in  loan  supply. For once,  regulatory  changes 
played less of a role. Instead, most banks pointed to a deterioration in domestic funding conditions, which likely 
reflects  the  tightening  of  monetary  policy  in  the  euro  area.  Nevertheless,  their  assessment  of  the  local  market 
outlook is less pessimistic than that of other banks in the region.  

Banks expect the same factors to continue to shape their loan supply in the next six months.  

Domestic factors

International factors

Local
market
outlook

Local
bank
outlook

Local
bank
funding

Local bank
capital
constraints

Change in
local
regulation

Local
NPL
figures

Group
outlook

Global
market
outlook

Group
funding

EU
regulation

Group
capital
constraints

Group
NPL
figures

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating a positive contribution to supply. See Question B.Q4 in the Annex. 

Figure 8 

Non-performing loan ratios (in %) 

Banks  reported  that  there  was  little  change  in  non-
performing  loans  over  the  past  six  months.  This 
outcome was better than what they had expected six 
months earlier. That said, banks unanimously continue 
to  expect  non-performing  loan  ratios  to  deteriorate, 
particularly in the corporate sector.   

Banks  in  the  rest  of  the  region  are  less  pessimistic 
regarding  the  expected  increase  in  non-performing 
loans.  This  may  be  because  they  have  already  seen 
some increase over the past six months, reflecting the 
earlier tightening of monetary policy in non-euro area 
economies  (see,  for  example,  the  results  for  Poland 
and the Czech Republic).   

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

Total

Corporate

Retail

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note:  The  chart  shows  net  percentages,  with  negative  values 
indicating deteriorating credit quality (in other words, increasing NPL 
ratios). See Question B.Q8 in the Annex. 

89 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Slovakia 

Figure 9 

Access to funding (in %) 

Access  to  funding  has  changed  little  for  banks  in  Slovakia,  similarly  to  the  rest  of  the  region.  Retail  funding  has 
become less ample, but banks report that corporate funding has increased, perhaps reflecting a desire by corporates 
to increase their cash buffers given the deteriorating macroeconomic environment.  

Banks in Slovakia expect some improvement in their funding over the next six months like other banks in the region.  

g
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100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

Last six months

Next six months

 CESEE Last six months

CESEE Next six months

Source: EIB — CESEE Bank Lending Survey. 

Note: The chart shows net percentages, with positive values indicating improved access to funding. See Question B.Q9 in the Annex. 

90 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Statistical Annex 

Annex 

Non-performing loans in % of total loans (more than 90 days overdue) 

2023Q2 
2023Q1 
2022Q4 
2022Q3 
2022Q2 
2022Q1 
2021Q4 
2021Q3 
2021Q2 
2021Q1 
2020Q4 
2020Q3 
2020Q2 
2020Q1 
2019Q4 
2019Q3 
2019Q2 
2019Q1 
2018Q4 
2018Q3 
2018Q2 
2018Q1 
2017Q4 
2017Q3 
2017Q2 
2017Q1 
2016Q4 
2016Q3 
2016Q2 
2016Q1 
2015Q4 
2015Q3 
2015Q2 
2015Q1 
2014Q4 
2014Q3 

AL 
5.20 
5.15 
5.00 
5.06 
5.32 
5.24 
5.65 
6.49 
7.12 
7.96 
8.11 
8.30 
8.09 
8.21 
8.37 
10.61 
11.23 
11.38 
11.08 
12.89 
13.27 
13.43 
13.23 
14.78 
15.58 
17.44 
18.27 
21.29 
19.96 
19.31 
18.22 
20.57 
20.94 
22.85 
22.80 
24.98 

BA 
4.10 
4.20 
4.50 
4.90 
5.20 
5.40 
5.78 
5.55 
5.70 
6.00 
6.10 
6.60 
6.70 
6.60 
7.40 
7.74 
8.03 
8.50 
8.80 
9.39 
9.31 
9.66 
10.05 
10.78 
11.09 
11.49 
11.78 
12.12 
12.11 
13.24 
13.71 
13.83 
14.07 
14.19 
14.17 
16.08 

BG 
3.80 
4.05 
4.63 
5.09 
5.24 
5.50 
6.03 
6.44 
6.72 
7.10 
7.45 
7.78 
8.11 
8.00 
6.62 
7.56 
7.31 
7.55 
7.80 
8.68 
9.29 
9.56 
10.43 
11.73 
12.39 
12.92 
13.17 
14.02 
14.40 
14.74 
14.51 
14.48 
15.01 
17.17 
16.75 
18.13 

HR 
2.99 
3.17 
3.01 
3.29 
3.82 
4.16 
4.33 
4.68 
5.07 
5.27 
5.43 
5.49 
5.50 
5.39 
5.53 
6.03 
7.25 
7.40 
7.56 
8.07 
8.89 
8.92 
11.35 
12.51 
13.16 
13.91 
13.80 
14.65 
14.99 
16.12 
16.65 
17.05 
17.34 
17.14 
17.06 
17.24 

CZ 
1.80 
1.90 
1.90 
2.00 
2.10 
2.30 
2.40 
2.60 
2.70 
2.80 
2.70 
2.30 
2.40 
2.40 
2.50 
2.70 
2.80 
3.20 
3.30 
3.30 
3.40 
3.60 
4.00 
4.00 
4.30 
4.50 
4.80 
5.20 
5.30 
5.50 
5.80 
6.10 
6.00 
6.10 
6.10 
6.20 

HU 
2.98 
3.21 
3.21 
3.41 
3.47 
3.15 
3.20 
3.04 
3.40 
3.57 
3.60 
3.84 
3.98 
4.15 
4.06 
4.48 
4.92 
5.22 
5.43 
6.17 
6.59 
6.98 
7.52 
8.47 
9.23 
10.16 
10.75 
12.50 
13.59 
14.50 
13.59 
15.54 
14.90 
14.71 
16.65 
17.78 

KS 
2.00 
2.00 
2.00 
2.10 
2.10 
2.10 
2.30 
2.40 
2.50 
2.70 
2.70 
2.70 
2.60 
2.90 
2.00 
2.30 
2.50 
2.60 
2.70 
2.80 
2.80 
2.90 
3.10 
3.60 
3.90 
4.50 
4.90 
5.10 
5.30 
5.90 
6.20 
6.80 
7.20 
8.10 
8.30 
8.50 

MK 
2.79 
2.76 
2.83 
3.24 
3.21 
3.06 
3.20 
3.49 
3.44 
3.39 
3.28 
3.33 
4.56 
4.83 
4.61 
4.81 
5.36 
5.11 
5.11 
4.95 
5.02 
5.04 
6.24 
6.49 
6.63 
6.18 
6.39 
7.19 
7.41 
10.52 
10.43 
11.26 
11.02 
11.12 
10.89 
11.75 

PL 
5.60 
5.50 
5.60 
5.70 
5.60 
5.70 
5.80 
6.30 
6.50 
6.80 
7.00 
7.00 
6.90 
6.60 
6.60 
6.80 
6.80 
6.80 
6.80 
7.00 
7.10 
7.70 
6.80 
6.90 
6.90 
6.90 
7.10 
7.30 
7.30 
7.40 
7.50 
7.90 
8.00 
8.20 
8.10 
8.20 

RO 
2.65 
2.73 
2.65 
2.82 
3.01 
3.31 
3.35 
3.65 
3.78 
3.94 
3.83 
4.06 
4.38 
3.94 
4.09 
4.58 
4.74 
4.90 
4.96 
5.56 
5.71 
6.16 
6.41 
7.96 
8.32 
9.36 
9.62 
10.00 
11.30 
13.52 
13.51 
15.73 
16.20 
20.20 
13.93 
15.33 

RS 
3.00 
3.00 
3.00 
3.20 
3.26 
3.40 
3.50 
3.55 
3.60 
3.90 
3.70 
3.40 
3.70 
4.00 
4.10 
4.70 
5.20 
5.50 
5.70 
6.41 
7.81 
9.20 
9.85 
12.21 
15.58 
16.82 
17.03 
19.51 
20.22 
20.92 
21.58 
21.98 
22.78 
22.60 
21.54 
23.01 

SK 
1.66 
1.67 
1.69 
1.82 
1.93 
1.97 
1.90 
1.98 
2.10 
2.23 
2.34 
2.48 
2.69 
2.81 
2.81 
2.80 
2.89 
2.95 
3.06 
3.40 
3.46 
3.60 
3.61 
3.92 
4.02 
4.26 
4.37 
4.67 
4.70 
4.71 
4.81 
5.31 
5.48 
5.57 
5.54 
5.64 

Source: WIIW 

CESEE 
3.81 
3.83 
3.89 
4.04 
4.08 
4.19 
4.30 
4.61 
4.79 
5.02 
5.12 
5.13 
5.20 
5.06 
5.04 
5.37 
5.54 
5.69 
5.77 
6.14 
6.39 
6.81 
6.85 
7.42 
7.80 
8.21 
8.49 
9.10 
9.42 
10.00 
10.00 
10.74 
10.83 
11.45 
10.93 
11.49 

91 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | Statistical Annex 

Credit to private sector, y/y growth rate 

2023M7 

2023Q2 

2023Q1 

2022Q4 

2022Q3 

2022Q2 

2022Q1 

2021Q4 

2021Q3 

2021Q2 

2021Q1 

2020Q4 

2020Q3 

2019Q2 

2020Q1 

2019Q4 

2019Q3 

2019Q2 

2019Q1 

2018Q4 

2018Q3 

2018Q2 

2018Q1 

2017Q4 

2017Q3 

2017Q2 

2017Q1 

2016Q4 

2016Q3 

2016Q2 

2016Q1 

2015Q4 

2015Q3 

2015Q2 

2015Q1 

2014Q4 

2014Q3 

AL 

-0.20 

1.43 

3.76 

7.01 

12.77 

12.46 

12.16 

9.55 

7.20 

6.06 

2.42 

6.92 

5.32 

6.60 

8.85 

6.62 

5.06 

3.62 

-0.77 

-3.59 

-3.53 

-2.44 

0.36 

0.72 

0.88 

-1.52 

0.09 

0.24 

0.49 

-0.10 

-2.05 

-2.64 

-1.89 

0.72 

2.48 

2.39 

1.92 

BA 

5.05 

5.04 

5.05 

5.26 

4.69 

4.77 

4.26 

3.70 

2.74 

2.05 

-0.40 

-2.50 

-0.55 

0.36 

3.46 

6.68 

6.04 

6.03 

5.28 

5.48 

6.32 

6.98 

7.19 

7.33 

7.34 

6.22 

4.75 

3.54 

2.41 

2.18 

3.31 

2.02 

0.96 

0.69 

-0.10 

1.68 

3.24 

BG 

10.25 

10.87 

10.80 

12.22 

13.09 

12.36 

10.53 

8.27 

7.33 

6.20 

4.51 

4.46 

4.25 

4.88 

7.05 

7.36 

6.51 

5.98 

7.51 

7.54 

6.10 

5.73 

3.80 

3.27 

4.14 

3.57 

3.33 

0.97 

-0.69 

-1.21 

-2.27 

-1.57 

-10.07 

-10.17 

-9.20 

-8.15 

1.98 

HR 

8.32 

9.18 

10.18 

10.89 

10.45 

7.35 

4.65 

2.77 

3.09 

2.65 

1.50 

1.93 

2.49 

1.74 

3.31 

3.49 

2.10 

2.42 

3.52 

2.63 

2.50 

2.53 

0.86 

1.51 

0.70 

0.24 

-1.22 

-3.30 

-4.44 

-5.41 

-5.47 

-2.83 

-1.58 

-0.86 

-0.45 

-2.43 

-3.92 

CZ 

4.86 

5.37 

3.30 

4.52 

7.03 

8.06 

9.28 

8.36 

6.32 

4.18 

3.21 

4.10 

4.75 

5.61 

6.40 

5.20 

5.15 

5.43 

6.79 

6.83 

6.70 

6.12 

5.52 

6.53 

6.47 

7.27 

6.75 

6.73 

6.48 

6.51 

7.94 

6.63 

8.57 

5.88 

3.81 

2.69 

2.78 

HU 

6.88 

6.99 

11.52 

11.58 

14.96 

13.36 

9.77 

12.83 

11.49 

10.26 

9.01 

13.45 

12.55 

13.68 

18.36 

13.14 

13.25 

11.37 

11.53 

10.57 

9.63 

8.72 

5.05 

5.47 

4.63 

2.30 

0.14 

-1.33 

-4.59 

-5.75 

-6.44 

-12.34 

-9.36 

-8.26 

-6.72 

-0.27 

-3.90 

KS 

13.89 

14.32 

14.60 

16.06 

18.32 

17.34 

18.37 

15.42 

12.25 

12.23 

7.68 

7.07 

7.65 

6.39 

9.17 

10.02 

10.26 

10.51 

11.47 

10.81 

11.47 

11.41 

10.57 

11.65 

10.26 

10.17 

10.93 

10.50 

9.67 

8.33 

8.80 

7.23 

7.76 

7.87 

6.06 

6.23 

4.71 

MK 

5.71 

6.49 

6.51 

9.36 

9.92 

9.94 

9.79 

8.23 

6.17 

5.01 

5.12 

4.61 

7.40 

6.71 

5.88 

6.07 

5.53 

8.07 

8.97 

7.21 

7.83 

6.15 

5.65 

5.43 

4.01 

4.09 

-1.16 

-0.06 

1.52 

2.50 

8.53 

9.60 

8.89 

9.09 

9.25 

10.00 

9.51 

PL 

-3.83 

-3.09 

-1.26 

0.23 

4.82 

5.66 

5.38 

4.61 

2.89 

0.47 

-2.04 

0.42 

0.56 

2.91 

5.97 

4.65 

6.05 

5.34 

7.07 

7.17 

5.84 

5.50 

4.44 

3.08 

4.10 

4.02 

4.69 

5.28 

4.90 

5.22 

5.38 

7.07 

6.43 

6.82 

6.67 

5.80 

5.69 

RO 

5.03 

5.79 

9.25 

11.21 

15.12 

16.65 

14.96 

14.26 

12.96 

10.88 

6.93 

5.00 

4.19 

4.10 

6.23 

7.02 

7.15 

6.66 

7.73 

7.84 

6.44 

6.95 

5.89 

5.26 

7.24 

3.94 

2.67 

0.89 

0.46 

0.57 

2.34 

2.50 

0.37 

-0.45 

-3.62 

-3.71 

-4.87 

RS 

0.16 

0.33 

2.70 

6.46 

11.16 

12.81 

12.38 

10.23 

6.92 

7.26 

8.93 

11.06 

14.38 

13.89 

11.47 

8.93 

9.71 

8.95 

9.61 

9.91 

6.40 

4.44 

2.16 

2.13 

0.77 

2.21 

4.48 

2.35 

5.97 

4.65 

2.07 

3.02 

3.11 

5.43 

7.31 

4.46 

-0.81 

SK 

5.27 

6.18 

8.39 

10.83 

11.77 

11.32 

8.77 

7.19 

5.98 

5.08 

5.12 

5.02 

5.29 

6.05 

6.56 

6.55 

7.63 

7.22 

8.54 

9.78 

9.52 

10.20 

9.86 

9.85 

11.20 

11.74 

11.24 

9.30 

8.75 

7.36 

8.02 

9.69 

8.15 

8.69 

7.78 

6.70 

7.45 

CESEE 

2.31 

2.95 

4.29 

5.77 

8.85 

9.16 

8.33 

7.52 

5.91 

4.08 

2.33 

3.64 

3.84 

5.03 

7.13 

6.03 

6.62 

6.12 

7.42 

7.46 

6.50 

6.22 

5.07 

4.65 

5.25 

4.89 

4.69 

4.19 

3.64 

3.42 

3.80 

4.18 

3.70 

3.58 

3.00 

2.69 

2.57 

Source: WIIW 

92 

 
 
 
  
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | The Questionnaire 

The Questionnaire 

The questionnaire is divided into two parts: 

-  Part A addressed to parent banks  

-  Part B addressed to local/subsidiary banks  

93 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | The Questionnaire 

A.Q1 — How do you assess in each country… 

PART A 

Country 

…market potential 

…your 
subsidiary’s 
current 
positioning 

…Return 
on assets 
(adjusted 
for cost 
of risk) 

…Return 
on assets 
(adjusted 
for cost of 
risk) 
compared 
to overall 
group 
RoA 

…Return 
on equity 
(adjusted 
for cost of 
equity) 

…Return 
on equity 
(adjusted 
for cost of 
equity) 
compared 
to overall 
group RoE 

Albania 
Bosnia and Herzegovina 
Bulgaria 

Croatia 

Czech Republic 
Estonia 
Hungary 
Kosovo* 
Latvia 
Lithuania 
Macedonia 
Poland 
Romania 
Serbia 
Slovakia 
Slovenia 

Ukraine 

A.Q2 — Strategic operations: Has your group conducted strategic operations to increase the capital ratio 
and/or will it conduct strategic operations? If yes, which type? 

LAST six months 

NEXT six months 

Strategic restructuring 
Sale of assets 
Sale of branches of activities 
Raising capital on the market 
State contribution to capital 

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status and it is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo 
declaration of independence. 
94 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | The Questionnaire 

A.Q3 — Group funding: group's access to funding...  

…How has it changed over 
the LAST six months? 

…How do you expect it to 
change over the NEXT six 
months? 

Total 
Retail (deposits and bonds to clients) 
Corporate (deposits and bonds to clients) 

Interbank market 

International financial institutions (IFIs) 
Wholesale debt securities 
Loans or credit lines from the central bank 
Securitisation 
Short-term funding (any source) 
Long-term funding (any source) 

A.Q4 — Deleveraging: Over the next six months, you expect the loan-to-deposit ratio of your group to… 

A.Q5 — Longer-term strategic approach (beyond 12 months): Looking at operations via subsidiaries in 
CESEE, your group intends to… 

A.Q6 — Profitability of the strategy in CESEE region: The contribution of activities in CESEE in total return 
on assets (RoA) of the group is/will… 

LAST six months 

NEXT six months 

A.Q7 — Profitability of the strategy in CESEE region: Return on assets (RoA) of your CESEE operations is 
higher/lower/equal to that for the overall group… 

LAST six months 

NEXT six months 

95 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
  
 
  
 
  
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
A.Q8 — Group total exposure to CESEE: Concerning cross-border operations to CESEE countries, your 
group did/intends to… 

LAST six months 

NEXT six months 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey | The Questionnaire 

Total exposure 
Exposure to subsidiaries — intragroup funding 
Exposure to subsidiaries — capital 

Direct cross-border lending to domestic clients, 
booked in the balance sheet of the parent company  
MFIs (monetary financial institutions) — funding to 
banks not part of the group, booked in the balance 
sheet of the parent company  

A.Q9 — Conditions of your funding to your own subsidiaries in CESEE… 

…How have they 
changed over the 
LAST six months? 

…How do you expect 
them to change over 
the NEXT six months? 

Overall 

Pricing 

Maturity 

96 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | The Questionnaire 

PART B 

B.Q1 — Credit supply: Bank’s (local subsidiary’s) credit standards applied when assessing credit 
applications… 

…How have they changed over 
the LAST six months? 

…How do you expect them to 
change over the NEXT six 
months? 

Overall  

Loans to small and medium-sized enterprises 

Loans to large companies 

Loans to households for house purchase 

Consumer credit (other than loans for house 
purchase) 

Short-term loans 

Long-term loans 

Local currency 

Foreign currency 

B.Q2 — Credit supply: Bank’s (local subsidiary’s) approval rate for loan applications… 

…How has it changed over the 
LAST six months? 

…How do you expect it to 
change over the NEXT six 
months? 

Overall  

Loans to small and medium-sized enterprises 

Loans to large companies 

Loans to households for house purchase 

Consumer credit (other than loans for house 
purchase) 

Short-term loans 

Long-term loans 

Local currency 

Foreign currency 

97 

 
 
 
  
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
  
 
  
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
  
B.Q3 — Credit supply: Have the bank’s conditions and terms (maturity, pricing, size of average loan, etc.) for 
approving loans or credit lines changed/will they change? 

CESEE Bank Lending Survey | The Questionnaire 

Over the LAST six months 

Overall 

Loans to 
SMEs 

Loans to 
large 
companies 

Loans to 
households 
for house 
purchase 

Consumer 
credit  
(other than 
loans for 
house 
purchase) 

Over the NEXT six months 

Overall 

Loans to 
SMEs 

Loans to 
large 
companies 

Loans to 
households 
for house 
purchase 

Consumer 
credit  
(other than 
loans for 
house 
purchase) 

A) Your bank's margin on 
average loan 
(wider margin = --, narrower 
margin = ++) 
B) Size of the average loan or 
credit line 

C) Maturity 

D) Non-interest rate charges 

E) Collateral requirements 

A) Your bank's margin on 
average loan 
(wider margin = --, narrower 
margin = ++) 
B) Size of the average loan or 
credit line 

C) Maturity 

D) Non-interest rate charges 

E) Collateral requirements 

98 

 
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | The Questionnaire 

B.Q4 — Factors affecting your bank’s credit standards (credit supply).  
Have the following domestic and international factors contributed to the tightening (or easing) of your 
credit standards over the last six months, and do you expect them to contribute to the tightening (or 
easing) of your credit standards over the next six months? 

Over the LAST six months 

Over the NEXT six months 

Impact on credit standards 

A) Domestic factors — affecting your subsidiary 

i) Local market outlook 

ii) Local bank outlook 

iii) Local bank access to total funding  

iii.a) of which: domestic 

iii.b) of which: international/intragroup 

iv) Local bank capital constraints 

v) Change in local regulation 

vi) Competition 

vii) Credit quality (non-performing loans) 

viii) Bank’s liquidity position 

ix) Risk on collateral demanded 

B) International factors — affecting your subsidiary 
i) Group company outlook 

ii) Global market outlook 

iii) Overall group access to funding 

iv) EU regulation 

v) Group capital constraints 

vi) Global competition 

vii) Credit quality (non-performing loans) 

99 

 
 
  
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | The Questionnaire 

B.Q5 — Loan applications: Demand for loans or credit lines to enterprises and households (to your local 
subsidiary/branch)… 

…How has it changed over the 
LAST six months? 

…How do you expect it to change 
over the NEXT six months? 

Overall  

Loans to small and medium-sized 
enterprises 

Loans to large companies 

Loans to households for house purchase 

Consumer credit (other than loans for 
house purchase) 

Short-term loans 

Long-term loans 

Local currency 

Foreign currency 

B.Q6 — Has the quality of the loan applications changed/Do you expect it to change?  

…How has it changed over the 
LAST six months? 

…How do you expect it to change 
over the NEXT six months? 

Overall  

Applications from small and medium-
sized enterprises 

Applications from large companies 

Applications from households for house 
purchase 

Applications for consumer credit (other 
than loans for house purchase) 

Applications for short-term loans 

Applications for long-term loans 

Applications for local currency 

Applications for foreign currency 

100 

 
 
 
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
  
 
 
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
  
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | The Questionnaire 

B.Q7 — Factors affecting clients’ demand for loan applications 

Loans or credit lines to enterprises 

How have they changed over the 
LAST six months? 

How do you expect them to 
change over the NEXT six 
months? 

A) Financing needs 

Fixed investments 

Inventories and working capital 

Mergers and acquisitions and corporate 
restructuring 

Debt restructuring 

Loans to households 

A) Financing needs 

Housing market prospects 

Consumer confidence 

Non-housing related consumption expenditure 

B.Q8 — Gross non-performing loan ratio in your local subsidiary/branch (excluding extraordinary 
operations) 

Has the non-performing loan ratio changed 
over the LAST six months? 

How do you expect the non-performing 
loan ratio to change over the NEXT six 
months? 

Total 

Retail 

Corporate 

101 

 
 
  
  
 
  
  
 
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
CESEE Bank Lending Survey | The Questionnaire 

B.Q9 — In terms of funding: Has access to funding of your local subsidiary/branch changed over the last 
six months, or do you expect it to change over the next six months? 

Over the LAST six months 

Over the NEXT six months 

A) Total funding 

A.1) Intragroup funding 

A.2) International financial institution (IFI) funding 

A.3) Retail funding (deposits and bonds to clients) 

A.4) Corporate funding (deposits and bonds to clients) 

A.5) Interbank unsecured money market 

A.6) Wholesale debt securities 

A.7) Securitisation 

A.8) Net central bank position 

B.1) Local currency funding 

B.2) Short-term (less than 1 year) 

C.1) Long-term (more than 1 year) 

C.2) Foreign currency funding 

102 

 
 
 
  
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Central, Eastern and  
South-Eastern Europe (CESEE)
Bank Lending Survey
Second half of 2023

Economics Department
economics@eib.org
www.eib.org/economics 

European Investment Bank
98 -100, boulevard Konrad Adenauer
L-2950 Luxembourg
+352 4379-22000
www.eib.org – info@eib.org

© European Investment Bank, 12/2023 

EN

PDF:

ISBN 978-92-861-5622-9

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