Outline of the dynamic baseline for the MSFD impact assessment analysis in the context of the Blue2 modelling framework initiative.
Date: 2023-09-04
Institutions: Joint Research Centre
Subjects: Framework Programme for Research and Development, action programme, aquaculture, biodiversity, climate change, directive (EU), environmental cooperation, foresight, marine environment, maritime economy, maritime law, mining operation, nature restoration, research method, research report, shipping policy, socioeconomic conditions

ISSN 1831-9424 

JRC TECHNICAL REPORT 

Outline  of  the  dynamic  baseline  for  the 
MSFD  Impact  Assessment  analysis  in  the 
context  of  the  Blue2  Modelling  Framework 
initiative 

Macias Moy, D., Bisselink, B., Duteil, O., Ferreira 
Cordeiro, N., Garcia Gorriz, E., Grizzetti, B., Hanke, G., 
Miladinova-Marinova, S., Parn, O., Piroddi, C., Pistocchi, 
A., Polimene, L., Ruiz Orejon Sanchez Pastor, L., Serpetti, 
N., Stips, A., Trichakis, I., Udias Moinelo, A., Vigiak, O. 

2023 

 EUR 31644 EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It 
aims  to  provide  evidence-based  scientific  support  to  the  European  policymaking  process.  The  contents  of  this  publication  do  not 
necessarily reflect the position or opinion of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on 
behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and 
quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should 
contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of 
any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its 
authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 

Contact information  
Name: Diego Manuel Macias Moy 
Address: Via E. Fermi, 2749, TP270, I-21027 Ispra (VA) 
Email: diego.macias-moy@ec.europa.eu 
Tel.: +39-0332-789224 

EU Science Hub 
https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu 

JRC134027 

EUR 31644 EN 

PDF  

ISBN 978-92-68-07097-0  

ISSN 1831-9424  

doi:10.2760/747000  KJ-NA-31-644-EN-N 

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2023 

© European Union, 2023 

The reuse policy of the European Commission documents is implemented by the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 
on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Unless otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised 
under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means 
that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. 

For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the European Union permission must be sought directly from 
the copyright holders.  

How to cite this report: Macias Moy, D., Bisselink, B., Duteil, O., Ferreira Cordeiro, N., Garcia Gorriz, E., Grizzetti, B., Hanke, G., Miladinova-
Marinova, S., Parn, O., Piroddi, C., Pistocchi, A., Polimene, L., Ruiz Orejon Sanchez Pastor, L., Serpetti, N., Stips, A., Trichakis, I., Udias Moinelo, 
A. and Vigiak, O., Outline of the dynamic baseline for the MSFD Impact Assessment analysis in the context of the Blue2 Modelling Framework 
initiative, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2023, doi:10.2760/747000, JRC134027.  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Contents  

Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 

1 

Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 

2  Descriptor 1. Biological diversity is maintained. The quality and occurrence of habitats and the distribution 
and abundance of species are in line with prevailing physiographic, geographic and climatic conditions ................. 3 

2.1  Drivers .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 

2.1.1 

Established socio-economic developments ..................................................................................................................................... 3 

— 

— 

— 

— 

Population evolution: ................................................................................................................................................................................ 3 

Long term economic growth ............................................................................................................................................................. 3 

Increasing demand for natural resources ............................................................................................................................ 3 

Behavioural changes ................................................................................................................................................................................ 3 

2.1.2 

Climate change ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 

2.1.3 

Development in international cooperation ....................................................................................................................................... 3 

2.2  Main policies ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 

2.2.1 

Habitat Directive (Council Directive 92/43/EEC) .......................................................................................................................... 5 

2.2.2 

Birds Directive (Directive 2009/147/EC-Council Directive 79/409/EEC) ............................................................... 5 

2.2.3 

Biodiversity Strategy (COM/2020/380) ................................................................................................................................................ 5 

2.2.4 

Natural Restoration Law (on the way) .................................................................................................................................................. 5 

2.2.5 

Action Plan to Conserve Fisheries Resources and Protect Marine Species (on the way) ..................... 6 

3  Descriptor 2. Non-indigenous species introduced by human activities are at levels that do not adversely 
alter the ecosystems ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 

3.1  Drivers .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 

3.1.1 

Established socio-economic developments ..................................................................................................................................... 7 

3.1.2 

Climate change ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 

3.1.3 

Development in international cooperation ....................................................................................................................................... 7 

3.2  Main policies ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 

3.2.1 

EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 (COM/2020/380) .............................................................................................................. 8 

3.2.2 
2014 on the prevention and management of the introduction and spread of invasive alien species) ........ 8 

Regulation (EU) No 1143/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 22 October 

3.2.3 
absent species in aquaculture ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 

Council regulation (EC) No 708/2007 of 11 June 2007 concerning use of alien and locally 

3.2.4 
Council Directive 2000/29/EC of 8 May 2000 on protective measures against the introduction 
into the Community of organisms harmful to plants or plant products and against their spread within 
the Community (OJ L 169, 10.7.2000, p. 1). ......................................................................................................................................................... 9 

Directive 2001/18/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 12 March 2001 on the 

3.2.5 
deliberate release into the environment of genetically modified organisms and repealing Council 
Directive 90/220/EEC (OJ L 106, 17.4.2001, p. 1). .......................................................................................................................................... 9 

Regulation (EC) No 1107/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 October 

3.2.6 
2009 concerning the placing of plant protection products on the market and repealing Council 
Directives 79/117/EEC and 91/414/EEC (OJ L 309, 24.11.2009, p. 1). ....................................................................................... 9 

3.2.7  Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) ........................................................................................................................................ 9 

i 

 
4  Descriptor 3. Populations of all commercially-exploited fish and shellfish are within safe biological limits, 
exhibiting a population age and size distribution that is indicative of a healthy stock .............................................................. 10 

4.1  Drivers ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10 

4.1.1 

Established socio-economic developments .................................................................................................................................. 10 

— 

— 

— 

— 

Population evolution: ............................................................................................................................................................................. 10 

Long term economic growth .......................................................................................................................................................... 10 

Increasing demand for natural resources ......................................................................................................................... 10 

Behavioural changes ............................................................................................................................................................................. 10 

4.1.2 

Climate change ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 10 

4.1.3 

Development in international cooperation .................................................................................................................................... 10 

4.2  Main policies .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 

4.2.1 

Common Fisheries Policy (No 1380/2013) particularly its Article 2 (2)............................................................ 11 

4.2.2  Within the Integrated Maritime Policy ............................................................................................................................................... 11 

4.2.3 

Biodiversity Strategy (COM/2020/380) ............................................................................................................................................. 11 

4.2.4 

Habitat Directive (Council Directive 92/43/EEC) ....................................................................................................................... 11 

4.2.5 

Action Plan to Conserve Fisheries Resources and Protect Marine Species (on the way) .................. 12 

4.2.6 

Natural Restoration Law (on the way) ............................................................................................................................................... 12 

5  Descriptor 4. All elements of the marine food webs, to the extent that they are known, occur at normal 
abundance and diversity and levels capable of ensuring the long-term abundance of the species and the 
retention of their full reproductive capacity ......................................................................................................................................................................... 14 

5.1  Drivers ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 14 

5.1.1 

Established socio-economic developments .................................................................................................................................. 14 

— 

— 

— 

— 

Population evolution: ............................................................................................................................................................................. 14 

Long term economic growth .......................................................................................................................................................... 14 

Increasing demand for natural resources ......................................................................................................................... 14 

Behavioural changes ............................................................................................................................................................................. 14 

5.1.2 

Climate change ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 14 

5.1.3 

Development in international cooperation .................................................................................................................................... 14 

5.2  Main policies .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 15 

5.2.1 

Habitat Directive (Council Directive 92/43/EEC) ....................................................................................................................... 15 

5.2.2 

Birds Directive (Directive 2009/147/EC-Council Directive 79/409/EEC) ............................................................ 16 

5.2.3 

Biodiversity Strategy (COM/2020/380) ............................................................................................................................................. 16 

5.2.4 

Natural Restoration Law (on the way) ............................................................................................................................................... 16 

5.2.5 

Action Plan to Conserve Fisheries Resources and Protect Marine Species (on the way) .................. 17 

6  Descriptor 5. Human-induced eutrophication is minimised, especially adverse effects thereof, such as 
losses in biodiversity, ecosystem degradation, harmful algae blooms and oxygen deficiency in bottom waters.

18 

6.1  Drivers ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 18 

6.1.1 

Established socio-economic developments .................................................................................................................................. 18 

— 

— 

Population evolution: ............................................................................................................................................................................. 18 

Long term economic growth .......................................................................................................................................................... 18 

ii 

 
 
— 

— 

Increasing demand for natural resources ......................................................................................................................... 18 

Behavioural changes ............................................................................................................................................................................. 18 

6.1.2 

Climate change ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18 

6.1.3 

Development in international cooperation .................................................................................................................................... 18 

6.2  Main policies .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 19 

6.2.1 

The Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC).......................................................................................................................... 19 

6.2.2 

The Nitrates Directive (91/676/EEC) .................................................................................................................................................... 20 

6.2.3 

The Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (UWWT) (Council Directive 91/271/EEC) .................... 20 

6.2.4 

The Surface Water for Drinking Directive (75/440/EEC) .................................................................................................. 20 

6.2.5 

The Industrial Emissions Directive (2010/75/EU) .................................................................................................................... 20 

6.2.6 

National Emission of Certain Atmospheric Pollutants Directive (2016/2284 /EU) ................................. 21 

6.2.7 

Bathing Water Directive (2006/7/EC).................................................................................................................................................. 21 

6.2.8 

Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC) .................................................................................................................................................................. 21 

6.2.9 

Common Agricultural policy ......................................................................................................................................................................... 21 

6.2.10  Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 ................................................................................................................................................................. 21 

6.2.11  Zero Pollution Action Plan .............................................................................................................................................................................. 21 

6.2.12  Decision (EU) 2022/591 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 6 April 2022 on a 
General Union Environment Action Programme to 2030. ..................................................................................................................... 21 

6.2.13  The Strategic Innovation Agenda of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) 
2021-2027: Boosting the Innovation Talent and Capacity of Europe and repealing Decision No 
1312/2013/EU. ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 21 

6.2.14  Directive (EU) 2015/2193, the limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the air from 
medium combustion plants. ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 

6.2.15  Directive 2009/126/EC, Stage II petrol vapour recovery during refuelling of motor vehicles at 
service stations. .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 21 

7  Descriptor 6. Sea-floor integrity is at a level that ensures that the structure and functions of the 
ecosystems are safeguarded and benthic ecosystems, in particular, are not adversely affected. ................................. 23 

7.1  Drivers ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 23 

7.1.1 

Established socio-economic developments .................................................................................................................................. 23 

— 

— 

— 

— 

Population evolution: ............................................................................................................................................................................. 23 

Long term economic growth .......................................................................................................................................................... 23 

Increasing demand for natural resources ......................................................................................................................... 23 

Behavioural changes ............................................................................................................................................................................. 23 

7.1.2 

Climate change ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 23 

7.1.3 

Development in international cooperation .................................................................................................................................... 23 

7.2  Main policies .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 24 

7.2.1 

Habitat Directive (Council Directive 92/43/EEC) ....................................................................................................................... 24 

7.2.2 

Biodiversity Strategy (COM/2020/380) ............................................................................................................................................. 24 

7.2.3 

Natural Restoration Law (on the way) ............................................................................................................................................... 24 

7.2.4 

Action Plan to Conserve Fisheries Resources and Protect Marine Species (on the way) .................. 25 

iii 

 
8  Descriptor 7. Permanent alteration of hydrographical conditions does not adversely affect marine 
ecosystems. .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 

8.1  Drivers ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 26 

8.1.1 

Established socio-economic developments .................................................................................................................................. 26 

— 

— 

— 

Population evolution: ............................................................................................................................................................................. 26 

Energy .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 26 

Natural resources ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 26 

The demand for natural resources and raw materials is increasing and for many expected to double 
by 2060.  26 

This especially concerns sand extraction/mining (which globally has tripled the last 2 decades 
reaching now 50 billion tonnes a year). Annually, approx. 40 million m3 of marine sand and gravel 
are extracted, alone, from the North European inner (<60m water depth) continental shelf 
(www.sandandgravel.com/extraction). The short-term forecast is that the extraction will increase 
significantly. .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 26 

— 

Increasing maritime transport, shipping, and tourism .......................................................................................... 26 

As demand for global freight increases, maritime trade volumes are set to triple by 2050 (OECD).26 

Each year, more than 400 million passengers embark and disembark at European ports. ........................ 26 

8.1.2 

Climate change ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 27 

8.1.3 

Development in international cooperation .................................................................................................................................... 27 

8.2  Main policies .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 27 

8.2.1 

Integrated Maritime Policy (2014/89/EC) ....................................................................................................................................... 27 

8.2.2  Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) ..................................................................................................................................... 27 

9  Descriptor 8. Concentrations of contaminants are at levels not giving rise to pollution effects. ............................ 28 

9.1  Drivers ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 28 

9.1.1 

Established socio-economic developments .................................................................................................................................. 28 

— 

— 

— 

— 

Population evolution: ............................................................................................................................................................................. 28 

Long term economic growth .......................................................................................................................................................... 28 

Increasing demand for natural resources ......................................................................................................................... 28 

Behavioural changes ............................................................................................................................................................................. 28 

9.1.2 

Climate change ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 28 

9.1.3 

Development in international cooperation .................................................................................................................................... 28 

9.2  Main policies .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 30 

9.2.1 

Directive 2008/105/EC setting environmental quality standards in the field of water policies)30 

9.2.2  Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC (WFD) ....................................................................................................................... 30 

9.2.3 

The Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (UWWT) (Council Directive 91/271/EEC) .................... 31 

9.2.4 

Zero Pollution Action Plan COM(2021) .............................................................................................................................................. 31 

9.2.5 
Regulation (EU) 2019/1021 implements the EU’s international commitments under the 
Stockholm Convention on persistent organic pollutants (chemical substances). ............................................................ 32 

9.2.6 

REACH Regulation .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 32 

9.2.7 

Chemicals strategy for sustainability (published on 14 October 2020) ........................................................... 32 

9.2.8 

Industrial Emission Directive (IED) (revised in 2022) .......................................................................................................... 32 

iv 

 
10 Descriptor 9. Contaminants in fish and other seafood for human consumption do not exceed levels 
established by Community legislation or other relevant standards. ............................................................................................................. 33 

10.1 Drivers ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 33 

10.1.1  Established socio-economic developments .................................................................................................................................. 33 

— 

— 

— 

— 

Population evolution: ............................................................................................................................................................................. 33 

Long term economic growth .......................................................................................................................................................... 33 

Increasing demand for natural resources ......................................................................................................................... 33 

Behavioural changes ............................................................................................................................................................................. 33 

10.1.2  Climate change ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 33 

10.1.3  Development in international cooperation .................................................................................................................................... 33 

10.2 Main policies .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34 

10.2.1  Council Regulation 315/93/EEC ................................................................................................................................................................ 34 

10.2.2  Commission Regulation (EC) No 1881/2006 ............................................................................................................................... 35 

10.2.3  Farm to Fork Strategy COM(2020)........................................................................................................................................................ 35 

10.2.4  Zero Pollution Action Plan COM(2021) .............................................................................................................................................. 35 

11 Descriptor 10. Properties and quantities of marine litter do not cause harm to the coastal and marine 
environment. ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 36 

11.1 Drivers ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 36 

11.1.1  Established socio-economic developments .................................................................................................................................. 36 

— 

— 

— 

Population evolution: ............................................................................................................................................................................. 36 

Long term economic growth .......................................................................................................................................................... 36 

Behavioural changes ............................................................................................................................................................................. 36 

11.1.2  Climate change ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 36 

11.1.3  Development in international cooperation .................................................................................................................................... 36 

11.2 Main policies .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37 

11.2.1  Regulation (EU) 2021/1139 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 7 July 2021 
establishing the European Maritime, Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund and amending Regulation (EU) 
2017/1004 .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37 

11.2.2  Regulation (EU) 2021/783 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 April 2021 
establishing a Programme for the Environment and Climate Action (LIFE), and repealing Regulation (EU) 
No 1293/2013 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37 

11.2.3  Directive (EU) 2019/904 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 5 June 2019 on the 
reduction of the impact of certain plastic products on the environment (SUP directive) ....................................... 37 

11.2.4  Directive (EU) 2019/883 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 April 2019 on 
port reception facilities for the delivery of waste from ships, amending Directive 2010/65/EU and 
repealing Directive 2000/59/EC ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 

11.2.5  Directive (EU) 2018/851 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 May 2018 
amending Directive 2008/98/EC on waste........................................................................................................................................................... 38 

11.2.6  Zero Pollution Action Plan .............................................................................................................................................................................. 38 

11.2.7  A European Strategy for Plastics in a Circular Economy .................................................................................................. 38 

12 Descriptor 11. Introduction of energy, including underwater noise, is at levels that do not adversely affect 
the marine environment. .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39 

12.1 Drivers ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 39 

v 

 
12.1.1  Established socio-economic developments .................................................................................................................................. 39 

— 

— 

— 

Population evolution: ............................................................................................................................................................................. 39 

Long term economic growth .......................................................................................................................................................... 39 

Behavioural changes ............................................................................................................................................................................. 39 

12.1.2  Climate change ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 39 

12.1.3  Development in international cooperation .................................................................................................................................... 39 

12.2 Main policies .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 39 

12.2.1  Zero Pollution Action Plan COM(2021) .............................................................................................................................................. 40 

12.2.2  Guidelines by the IMO (International Maritime Organization) MEPC.1/Circ.833. 7 April 2014 .... 40 

—  Conclusions .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 41 

References ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 43 

List of abbreviations and definitions ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 44 

List of figures ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47 

vi 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Abstract  

. 

As part of the support JRC is providing DG ENV on the coming review (impact assessment and potential revision) 
of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), it is necessary to develop a future scenario in which the 
Directive is not changed but that consider all other elements (policy and socio-economic developments) that 
are expected to happen in the next decades. This scenario is named the ‘dynamic baseline’ and it should provide 
(once simulated with the appropriate modelling tools) the likely environmental conditions of EU marine regions 
in 2050 in the case of ‘no-revision’ of the MSFD. The environmental conditions under this scenario should be 
compared against those derived from the different ‘revision scenarios’ in which different elements of the MSFD 
are changed. The difference between both scenarios should help quantify the impacts of the revision options. 

As a first step towards the realization of the dynamic baseline, it is necessary to identify the main elements 
(e.g.,  drivers,  trends  and  policies)  that  should  be  considered  for  the  different  descriptors  of  the  Good 
Environmental Status included in the MSFD. This report contains, for each individual descriptor, the drivers (e.g., 
socio-economic developments, climate changes and international cooperation) and legislations (both at EU and 
international level) that could influence the condition of those descriptors in the next few decades. 

The information contained in this report should provide the basis for the construction of the dynamic baseline 
scenario for the different descriptors covered by the Blue2 Modelling Framework to be simulated in the context 
of the Blue2.3 Administrative Arrangement. 

Authors 

Macias,  D.,  Bisselink,  B.,  Duteil, O.,  Ferreira-Cordeiro,  N.,  Garcia-Gorriz,  E.,  Grizzetti, B.,  Hanke,  G.,  Miladinova-
Marinova, S., Parn, O., Piroddi, C., Pistocchi, A., Polimene, L., Ruiz-Orejon, L., Serpetti, N., Stips, A., Trichakis, Y., 
Udias-Moinelo, A., Vigiak, O. 

1 

 
1 

Introduction  

As  part  of  the  Blue2.2  AA  (Administrative  Arrangement  N  °110661-070201/2019/818363/AA/  ENV.C.2),  DG 
ENV has requested JRC to provide with an outline for the dynamic baseline to be used in the context of the 
Impact Assessment and potential revision of the MSFD in the coming years.  

The dynamic baseline scenario is defined as the ‘business as usual’ future scenario that includes driving forces 
(e.g., climate change or socio-economic developments) and new policy and legislative developments that may 
impact the MSFD implementation. Importantly, in this scenario, the MSFD itself is not reviewed but will continue 
to be implemented as it is today.   

From the definition above, it is obvious that this dynamic baseline scenario is unique and constitutes our best 
guess on how pressures on marine ecosystems will develop in the future. However, the outline presented in this 
document discriminates and separates the scenario in the 11 descriptors considered in the MSFD separately. 
This is  a  choice  driven  by  the  characteristics  of  the  Blue2  Modelling  Framework  (Blue2MF)  that  is  made  of 
separated  (but  interconnected)  models  targeting  specific  criteria  or  indicators  within  the  individual  MSFD 
descriptors.  

In order to be able (in a later stage) to execute the necessary model runs to estimate the environmental changes 
for the different Descriptors/Criteria, the outline needs to identify, for each Descriptor, which are the relevant 
drivers/policies that need to be taken into account. This way, it would be possible to translate those elements 
into quantitative changes of the environmental pressures in the different models within the Blue2MF. 

However,  as  the  dynamic  scenario  is  unique,  there  are  complementary  and  indirect  impacts  that  should  be 
considered together. As an example, the environmental changes regarding eutrophication (D5) should have an 
impact and will be considered in the scenarios evaluating changes on biodiversity-related (i.e., D1, D4 or D6) 
criteria.  

For each Descriptor, we followed the structure designed by Millieu and AcTheon on their background document 
by identifying: 

A)  Drivers: long-term, exogenous driving forces and factors that will likely happen in the next decades. It 

includes: 

a.  Established socio-economic developments 

b.  Climate change 

c.  Developments in international cooperation 

B)  Main  policies:  these  are  the  main  EU  legislative  proposals  and  actions  that  will  influence  the 
environmental  conditions  of  EU  marine  regions  in  the  following  decades.  It  includes  overarching 
initiatives  (e.g.,  European  Green  Deal,  Zero  Pollution  Action  Plan,  Farm  to  Fork  Action  plan,  etc..) 
sectorial, dedicated policies, directives, regulations and conventions. For the identified policy elements, 
there  is  an  indication  of  the  specific  provisions  that  should  be  taken  into  account  for  the  dynamic 
baseline (when possible). 

2 

 
 
2  Descriptor 1. Biological diversity is maintained. The quality and 

occurrence of habitats and the distribution and abundance of species 
are in line with prevailing physiographic, geographic and climatic 
conditions 

2.1  Drivers 

2.1.1  Established socio-economic developments 

For D1, the identified socio-economic developments are: 

—  Population evolution: 

Europe  maximum  at  2025  then  shrinking,  Southern  Europe  already  shrinking  (Vollset  et  al.,  2020)  and 
EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/proj_19np/default/table?lang=en) 

—  Long term economic growth 

—  Increasing demand for natural resources 

Expected to double by 2060 

—  Behavioural changes 

Increasing awareness, social changes in behaviour and innovation leading to a more circular economy 

2.1.2  Climate change 

For the dynamic baseline, results from the CMIP5 climate simulation exercise will be used (as the newer CMIP6 
simulations  are  not  yet  downscaled  for  Europe  and  have  no  better  quality  than  the  previous  simulations). 
Considering the actual world situation realistic, we assume that socio-economic factors follow their historical 
trends,  with  no  significant  change,  consequently,  progress  toward  sustainability  is  slow,  with  disparate 
development and income growth. The baseline simulation shall therefore be based on the SSP2 (Shared Socio 
Economic Pathway 2 = middle of road or BAU) (Riahi et  al., 2017) in combination with RCP4.5 (Moss et al., 
2008), using the MPI Global Circulation Model, downscaled by the European CORDEX initiative (COSMO-CLM). 

For the short term (until 2030) there are no significant differences between the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and 
RCP6.0, however thereafter (~2040) the trajectories for air temperature and other climate variables begin to 
deviate from each other. 

Trends within SSP2-RCP4.5 

—  Ocean circulation pattern, water temperature, salinity and stratification are changing. (IPCC) 

—  Frequency of extreme weather events like storms, droughts, flooding is increasing. (IPCC) 

2.1.3  Development in international cooperation 

—  Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction 

—  International organizations 

—  Agreement on the conservation of cetaceans of the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea and contiguous 
Atlantic area (ACCOBAMS) Annex 2 on Agreement: work out and implement measures to minimize the 

3 

 
 
 
 
 
  
 
fishing  negative  effects  on  the  conservation  of  cetacean.  Most  particularly,  no  vessels  will  be 
authorized to keep on board or to use any drift nets. Introduce or amend regulations with a view to 
preventing fishing gear from being discarded or left adrift at sea, and to require the immediate release 
of cetaceans caught incidentally in fishing gear in conditions that assure their survival; regulate the 
discharge at sea of, and adopt within the framework of other appropriate legal instruments stricter 
standards for, pollutants believed to have adverse effects on cetaceans 

—  Agreement on the Conservation of Small Cetaceans of the Baltic, North East Atlantic, Irish and North 
Seas (ASCOBANS) Annex. Habitat conservation and management: Work towards (a) the prevention of 
the  release  of  substances  which  are  a  potential  threat  to  the  health  of  the  animals,  (b)  the 
development,  in  the  light  of  available  data  indicating  unacceptable  interaction,  of  modifications  of 
fishing gear and fishing practices in order to reduce by-catches and to prevent fishing gear from getting 
adrift or being discarded at sea, (c) the effective regulation, to reduce the impact on the animals, of 
activities  which  seriously  affect  their  food  resources,  and  (d)  the  prevention  of  other  significant 
disturbance, especially of an acoustic nature. 

—  Convention on biological diversity (CBD) (UN environment programme). Target 11 states that by 2020, 
at least 10% of coastal and marine areas, especially areas of particular importance for biodiversity 
and  ecosystem  services,  are  conserved  through  effectively  and  equitably  managed,  ecologically 
representative  and  well  connected  systems  of  protected  areas  and  other  effective  area-based 
conservation  measures,  and  integrated  into  the  wider  landscapes and  seascapes.  Although  there  is 
progress, the realization of this target in 2020 is still far behind, see Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). 
The realization of other targets related to the marine environment (sustainable fisheries, ecosystem 
restoration  and  resilience  and  knowledge,  science  and  technology)  also  falls  short.  Ecosystem 
protection and restoration are vital to mitigate the effects of climate change in marine biodiversity. 

—  Kunming-Montreal  Global  Biodiversity  Framework 

(https://www.cbd.int/article/cop15-final-text-
kunming-montreal-gbf-221222) Document CBD/COP/15/L25. TARGET 2. Ensure that by 2030 at least 
30% of areas of degraded coastal and marine ecosystems are under effective restoration, in order to 
enhance  biodiversity  and  ecosystem  functions  and  services,  ecological  integrity  and  connectivity. 
TARGET 3. Ensure and enable that by 2030 at least 30% of coastal and marine areas, especially areas 
of  particular  importance  for  biodiversity  and  ecosystem  functions  and  services,  are  effectively 
conserved and managed through ecologically representative, well-connected and equitably governed 
systems of protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures. TARGET 5. Ensure 
that  the  use,  harvesting  and  trade  of  wild  species  is  sustainable,  safe  and  legal,  preventing 
overexploitation, minimizing impacts on non-target species and ecosystems, applying the ecosystem 
approach, while respecting and protecting customary sustainable use by indigenous peoples and local 
communities. TARGET 10. Ensure that areas under agriculture, aquaculture, fisheries and forestry are 
managed  sustainably,  in  particular  through  the  sustainable  use  of  biodiversity,  including  through  a 
substantial  increase  of  the  application  of  biodiversity  friendly  practices,  such  as  sustainable 
intensification, agroecological and other innovative approaches contributing to the resilience and long-
term  efficiency  and  productivity  of  these  production  systems  and  to  food  security,  conserving  and 
restoring biodiversity and maintaining nature’s contributions to people, including ecosystem functions 
and services. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDG14. By 2020, conserve at least 10 per 
cent of coastal and marine areas, consistent with national and international law and based on the best 
available scientific information. 

—  Regional Sea Conventions: 

OSPAR, HELCOM, Barcelona Convention and Bucharest Convention 

4 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.2  Main policies 

2.2.1  Habitat Directive (Council Directive 92/43/EEC) 

Article 14:  

1. Member States shall take measures to ensure that the taking in the wild of specimens of species of wild 
fauna and flora listed in Annex V as well as their exploitation is compatible with their being maintained at a 
favourable conservation status.  

2. Where such measures are deemed necessary, they shall include continuation of the surveillance provided for 
in Article 11. Such measures may also include in particular: 

—  regulations regarding access to certain property, 

—  temporary  or  local  prohibition  of  the  taking  of  specimens  in  the  wild  and  exploitation  of  certain 

populations, 

—  regulation of the periods and/or methods of taking specimens, 

—  application,  when  specimens  are  taken,  of  hunting  and  fishing  rules  which  take  account  of  the 

conservation of such populations, 

—  establishment of a system of licenses for taking specimens or of quotas, 

—  assessment of the effect of the measures adopted. 

2.2.2  Birds Directive (Directive 2009/147/EC-Council Directive 79/409/EEC) 

Article 2: Member States shall take the requisite measures to maintain the population of the species referred 
to in Article 1 at a level which corresponds in particular to ecological, scientific and cultural requirements, while 
taking account of economic and recreational requirements, or to adapt the population of these species to that 
level. 

Article 3: Point 1. In the light of the requirements referred to in Article 2, Member States shall take the requisite 
measures to preserve, maintain or re-establish a sufficient diversity and area of habitats for all the species of 
birds  referred  to  in  Article  1.  Point  2.  The  preservation,  maintenance  and  re-establishment  of  biotopes  and 
habitats  shall  include  primarily  the  following  measures:  (a)  creation  of  protected  areas;  (b)  upkeep  and 
management in accordance with the ecological needs of habitats inside and outside the protected zones; (c) re-
establishment  of  destroyed  biotopes;  (d)  creation  of  biotopes  Point  4.  Member  States  shall  take  similar 
measures for regularly occurring migratory species not listed in Annex I, bearing in mind their need for protection 
in the geographical sea and  land area where this  Directive applies, as  regards their breeding, moulting and 
wintering areas and staging posts along their migration routes. To this end, Member States shall pay particular 
attention to the protection of wetlands and particularly to wetlands of international importance. 

Article 5: Member States shall take the requisite measures to establish a general system of protection for all 
species of birds referred to in Article 1, prohibiting in particular: (a) deliberate killing or capture by any method; 
(b) deliberate destruction of, or damage to, their nests and eggs or removal of their nests; (c) taking their eggs 
in the wild and keeping these eggs even if empty; (d) deliberate disturbance of these birds particularly during 
the period of breeding and rearing, in so far as disturbance would be significant having regard to the objectives 
of this Directive; (e) keeping birds of species the hunting and capture of which is prohibited 

2.2.3  Biodiversity Strategy (COM/2020/380) 

Article 2.1. A coherent network of protected areas: At least one third of protected areas – representing 10% of 
EU Seas – should be strictly protected and at least 30% of the sea should be protected in the EU. 

2.2.4  Natural Restoration Law (on the way) 

Not yet a regulation, but aiming at: 

—  Safeguard 20% of ‘EU nature’ by 2030 + all ‘necessary ecosystems’ by 2050 

5 

 
 
 
—  In particular for C-capture and storage: 

o  Seagrass beds 

o  Sediment bottoms 

o  Habitats for key species (dolphins, porpoises, nursery & spawning grounds) in good conditions: 

  30% @ 2030 

  60% @ 2040 

  90% @ 2050 

2.2.5  Action  Plan  to  Conserve  Fisheries  Resources  and  Protect  Marine  Species  (on  the 

way) 

—  By end of 2023, develop threshold values for the maximum allowable mortality rate from incidental 
catches of the species selected by Member States (34), as part of the implementation of the Marine 
Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) (35). 

—  Adopt fisheries management measures to implement these threshold values without delay through 

national measures or, where relevant, by submission of joint recommendations. 

—  Adopt national measures or submit joint recommendations to the Commission to minimise by-catch 

(or reduce it to the level that enables the full recovery of the populations) of: 

o  by  the  end  of  2023:  harbour  porpoise  in  the  Baltic  Proper  and  the  Black  Sea,  the  Iberian 

Atlantic and the common dolphin in the Bay of Biscay (36); 

o  by the end of 2024: angel sharks, common skate, guitarfish, Maltese skate, great white shark, 
sand tiger shark, smalltooth sand tiger shark, spiny butterfly ray, sturgeons, marine turtles, 
Balearic shearwater and Mediterranean monk seal; 

o  by 2030: the remaining sensitive marine species that are at risk of incidental catches (37), 

prioritising those in ‘unfavourable conservation status’ or threatened by extinction.- 

—  By 2030, based on the work by the Scientific Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF), 
the GFCM and other scientific institutions, such as the International Council for the Exploration of the 
Seas (ICES),  present  and  implement  additional  measures  to  boost  selectivity, starting  with  the  fish 
stocks with the highest expected biological gains. The measures should include: 

o  new and innovative gear techniques to reduce catches of small fish; 

o 

location or time-specific measures where there is clear evidence of  high concentrations of 
fish below the minimum conservation reference size. 

—  -Gradually phasing out bottom fishing in all MPAs (including Natura 2000) by 2030, in view of their 
key role in restoration of marine biodiversity and the importance of the  seabed  for  healthy marine 
ecosystems and climate change mitigation. 

All  the  dynamic-baseline  policies  related  and/associated  to  other  pressure  descriptors  (e.g., 
eutrophication, litter, noise) would be considered in the specific pressure descriptor and indirectly 
will be considered in the scenarios evaluating changes on biodiversity-related descriptors/criteria 
(i.e., D1, D3 and D4, D6). 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3  Descriptor 2. Non-indigenous species introduced by human activities are 

at levels that do not adversely alter the ecosystems 

3.1  Drivers 

3.1.1  Established socio-economic developments 

For D2, the identified socio-economic developments are: 

—  Global trade is increasing 

—  Transport and tourism are increasing 

—  Growth of the aquaculture  sector (increasing food (and protein) demand associated to depletion of 

natural resources) 

3.1.2  Climate change 

Impacts  on  non-indigenous  species  population,  distribution  and  habitat  extent.  Other  impacts  include:  (i) 
enabling the establishment of new species and (ii) propagule pressure, both for already established and new 
species could increase based on increased frequency of certain climatic events such as storms Same climate 
scenario as for D1 will be considered. 

3.1.3  Development in international cooperation 

—  Convention on biological diversity (CBD) (UN environment programme): 

CBD  (20201)  is  recognizing  that  invasive  alien  species  represent  one  of  the  primary  threats  to  biodiversity, 
especially in geographically and evolutionary isolated ecosystems, such as Small Island Developing States, and 
that risks may be increasing due to increased global trade, transport, tourism and climate change. CBD is stating 
that  full  and  effective  implementation  of  Article  8(h)2  is  a  priority.  The  identification  and  categorisation  of 
pathways follows the CBD classification as interpreted by the IUCN (2017)3. The main pathways, in which a 
non-indigenous specie arrive, is subdivided into the following categories: ‘corridor’; ‘escape from confinement’; 
‘release in nature’; ‘transport- contaminant’; ‘transport – stowaway’, ‘unaided’. Its application in Europe has been 
implemented  through  the  European  Alien  Species  Information  Network  (EASIN4)  and  it  is  presented  and 
discussed in Pergl et al. (2020).  

—  International Convention on the Control and Management of Ships’ Ballast Water and Sediments (BWM 

Convention): 

It was adopted in 2004 and aims to prevent the potentially devastating effects of the introduction and spread 
of invasive alien species carried by ships' ballast water and sediments from one region to another. This is to be 
done through the strict control and management of ships' ballast water and sediments.  

- 

The ballast waters convention implementation (IMP, 2017; IUCN, 2017)  

The convention entered into force in 8 September 2017, meaning that ships must manage their ballast water 
so  that  aquatic  organisms  and  pathogens  are  removed  or  rendered  harmless  before  the  ballast  water  is 

1 Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2020) Global Biodiversity Outlook 5 – Summary for Policy Makers. Montréal. 
2 https://www.cbd.int/convention/articles/?a=cbd-08 
3 https://www.cbd.int/doc/c/9d85/3bc5/d640f059d03acd717602cd76/sbstta-22-inf-09-en.pdf 
4 https://easin.jrc.ec.europa.eu/easin/ 

7 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                        
 
released to a new location. This will help prevent the introduction and spread of invasive alien species as well 
as potentially harmful pathogens (International Maritime Organization5 (IMO)). 

—  International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List of Threatened Species: 

The IUCN Red List is a critical indicator of the health of the world’s biodiversity. It is a powerful tool to inform 
and catalyse action for biodiversity conservation and policy change, critical to protecting the natural resources 
we need to survive. It provides information about range, population size, habitat and ecology, use and/or trade, 
threats,  and  conservation  actions  that  will  help  inform  necessary  conservation  decisions.  IUCN  has  revised, 
under a contract with ENV, IAS impacting native species. The output constitute a baseline which could be used 
to measure achievement of the Biodiversity Strategy IAS target. 

—  Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation: 

Carried  out  studies  and  reviews  of  non-indigenous  species  status,  origins  and  introduction  pathways  in  the 
Mediterranean and the Black sea.  

—  Regional Seas Conventions OSPAR, HELCOM, Barcelona Convention and Bucharest Convention: 

They help prevent the spread of invasive alien species through supporting the ratification and implementation 
of BWM Convention. 

—  Kunming-Montreal  Global  Biodiversity  Framework 

(https://www.cbd.int/article/cop15-final-text-

kunming-montreal-gbf-221222) Document CBD/COP/15/L25: 

TARGET 6. Eliminate, minimize, reduce and or mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species on biodiversity and 
ecosystem services by identifying and managing pathways of the introduction of alien species, preventing the 
introduction  and  establishment  of  priority  invasive  alien  species,  reducing  the  rates  of  introduction  and 
establishment of other known or potential invasive alien species by at least 50 per cent, by 2030, eradicating 
or controlling invasive alien species especially in priority sites, such as islands. 

3.2  Main policies 

3.2.1  EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 (COM/2020/380) 

Section 2.2.10 (Addressing invasive alien species): ‘The rate of release of invasive alien species has increased 
in recent years. Of the 1,872 species now considered threatened in Europe, 354 are under threat from invasive 
alien species. Without effective control measures, the rate of invasion and the risks it brings to our nature and 
health will continue to rise’. 

It advocates for stepping up the implementation of the EU Invasive Alien Species Regulation and other relevant 
legislation and international agreements. It aims to minimise and eliminate (when feasible) the introduction 
and establishment of alien species in the environment, manage established invasive alien species and decrease 
the number of Red List species they threaten by 50%. 

3.2.2  Regulation (EU) No 1143/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 22 
October 2014 on the prevention and management of the introduction and spread 
of invasive alien species) 

As invasive alien species are numerous, it is important to ensure that priority is given to addressing the subset 
of invasive alien species considered to be of Union concern. A list of such invasive alien species considered to 
be of Union concern ("the Union list") should therefore be established and regularly updated.  

The criteria for inclusion on the Union list are the core instrument of application of this Regulation. To ensure 
the  effective  use  of  resources,  those  criteria  should  ensure  that  among  the  potential  invasive  alien  species 
currently known, those that have the most significant adverse impact will be listed. 

It is crucial to manage the pathways of unintentional introduction more effectively. 

https://www.imo.org/en/About/Conventions/Pages/International-Convention-for-the-Control-and-Management-of-Ships%27-Ballast-

5 
Water-and-Sediments-(BWM).aspx 

8 

 
 
                                                        
 
The EU Regulation (EU, 2014) addresses exclusively invasive alien species and aims to increase coordination 
among existing legal instruments. It includes innovative pathway-related measures, aiming to provide a holistic 
framework for the assessment, management and prevention of non-indigenous species. 

The  regulation  is  underpinned  by  an  information  support  mechanism  (Art.  256):  the  European  Alien  Species 
Information Network (https://easin.jrc.ec.europa.eu/easin/). 

3.2.3  Council regulation (EC) No 708/2007 of 11 June 2007 concerning use of alien and 

locally absent species in aquaculture 

Applying  to  any  non-routine  intentional  introduction  of  alien  or  locally  absent  aquaculture  species.  Publicly 
available  register  on  all  introductions  and  translocations  of  alien  or  locally  absent  aquaculture  species 
(applications,  permits,  monitoring).  Monitoring  for  all  alien  or  locally  absent  aquaculture  species  after  their 
release  (2  years  or  full  generation  cycle  or  longer).  Contingency  plans  for  non-routine  introductions  or  pilot 
releases of alien or locally absent aquaculture species, to be implemented in case of negative effects on the 
environment or on native populations 

3.2.4  Council Directive 2000/29/EC of 8 May 2000 on protective measures against the 
introduction into the Community of organisms harmful to plants or plant products 
and against their spread within the Community (OJ L 169, 10.7.2000, p. 1).  

Establishes protective measures against the introduction of organisms harmful to plants or plant products and 
against their spread within the Community. 

3.2.5  Directive 2001/18/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 12 March 
2001  on  the  deliberate  release  into  the  environment  of  genetically  modified 
organisms and repealing Council Directive 90/220/EEC (OJ L 106, 17.4.2001, p. 1).  

Aims to ensure a harmonised framework for traceability and labelling of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) 
and traceability of food and feed produced from GMOs at all stages of their introduction in the market. 

3.2.6 

 Regulation (EC) No 1107/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 
21 October 2009 concerning the placing of plant protection products on the market 
and  repealing  Council  Directives  79/117/EEC  and  91/414/EEC  (OJ  L  309, 
24.11.2009, p. 1).  

This regulation lays down rules for the authorisation of plant protection products in commercial form and for 
their introduction in the market, use and control within the EC. 

3.2.7 

 Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) 

The Directive aims to achieve ‘good ecological status’ by 2027 in all EU surface water bodies (freshwater and 
coastal). The ecological status is an integrated measure of aquatic ecosystem conditions, defined in five classes 
based on biological, hydromorphological, and physico-chemical elements. Invasive alien species are considered 
a pressure on WFD water bodies (Vanderkerkhove et al., 2012; Magliozzi et al, 2020).  

All  the  dynamic-baseline  policies  related  and/associated  to  other  pressure  descriptors  (e.g., 
eutrophication, litter, noise) would be considered in the specific pressure descriptor and indirectly 
will be considered in the scenarios evaluating changes on non-indigenous species (D2). 

6 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_13_818; https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_12_952 

9 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                        
 
4  Descriptor 3. Populations of all commercially-exploited fish and 

shellfish are within safe biological limits, exhibiting a population age 
and size distribution that is indicative of a healthy stock 

4.1  Drivers 

4.1.1  Established socio-economic developments 

For D3, the identified socio-economic developments are: 

—  Population evolution: 

Europe  maximum  at  2025  then  shrinking,  Southern  Europe  already  shrinking  (Vollset  et  al.,  2020)  and 
EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/proj_19np/default/table?lang=en) 

—  Long term economic growth 

—  Increasing demand for natural resources 

Expected to double by 2060 

—  Behavioural changes 

Increasing awareness, social changes in behaviour and innovation leading to a more circular economy 

4.1.2  Climate change 

Impacts  on  fisheries  resources  population,  distribution,  habitat  extent  and  accessibility  to  fisheries.  Same 
climate scenario as for D1 will be considered. 

4.1.3  Development in international cooperation 

—  WTO agreement on fisheries subsidies: 

Eliminate subsidies that contribute to Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing, overfishing and fishing 
in the unregulated high seas. 

—  Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)/ General Fisheries Commission for the 

Mediterranean (GFCM): 

E.g.  MultiAnnual  Management  Plan  aiming  at  reducing  fishing  effort  in  the  Mediterranean  Sea;  Banning  of 
bottom trawling in areas beyond 1000m in the Mediterranean Sea. 

—  Kunming-Montreal  Global  Biodiversity  Framework 

(https://www.cbd.int/article/cop15-final-text-

kunming-montreal-gbf-221222) Document CBD/COP/15/L25: 

10 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
TARGET 5: Ensure that the use, harvesting and trade of wild species is sustainable, safe and legal, preventing 
overexploitation, minimizing impacts on non-target species and ecosystems, applying the ecosystem approach, 
while respecting and protecting customary sustainable use by indigenous peoples and local communities.  

TARGET 10: Ensure that areas under agriculture, aquaculture, fisheries and forestry are managed sustainably, 
in  particular  through  the  sustainable  use  of  biodiversity,  including  through  a  substantial  increase  of  the 
application  of  biodiversity  friendly  practices,  such  as  sustainable  intensification,  agroecological  and  other 
innovative  approaches  contributing  to  the  resilience  and  long-term  efficiency  and  productivity  of  these 
production  systems  and  to  food  security,  conserving  and  restoring  biodiversity  and  maintaining  nature’s 
contributions to people, including ecosystem functions and services.  

—  The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): 

SDG14: By 2020, effectively regulate harvesting and end overfishing, illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing 
and  destructive  fishing  practices  and  implement  science-based  management  plans,  in  order  to  restore  fish 
stocks  in  the  shortest  time  feasible,  at  least  to  levels  that  can  produce  maximum  sustainable  yield  as 
determined  by  their  biological  characteristics.  By  2020,  prohibit  certain  forms  of  fisheries  subsidies  which 
contribute  to  overcapacity  and  overfishing,  eliminate  subsidies  that  contribute  to  illegal,  unreported  and 
unregulated fishing and refrain from introducing new such subsidies, recognizing that appropriate and effective 
special and differential treatment for developing and least developed countries should be an integral part of 
the World Trade Organization fisheries subsidies negotiation. 

—  Regional Sea conventions: OSPAR, HELCOM, Barcelona Convention and Bucharest Convention 

4.2  Main policies 

4.2.1  Common Fisheries Policy (No 1380/2013) particularly its Article 2 (2) 

The  CFP  shall  apply  the  precautionary  approach  to  fisheries  management,  and  shall  aim  to  ensure  that 
exploitation of living marine biological resources restores and maintains populations of harvested species above 
levels  which  can  produce  the  maximum  sustainable  yield.  In  order  to  reach  the  objective  of  progressively 
restoring  and  maintaining  populations  of  fish  stocks  above  biomass  levels  capable  of  producing  maximum 
sustainable yield, the maximum sustainable yield exploitation rate shall be achieved by 2015 where possible 
and, on a progressive, incremental basis at the latest by 2020 for all stocks. 

4.2.2  Within the Integrated Maritime Policy 

The Maritime Spatial Planning (Directive 2014/89/EU) Art 5: that states “Through their maritime spatial plans, 
Member States shall aim to contribute to the sustainable development of energy sectors at sea, of maritime 
transport, and of the fisheries and aquaculture sectors, and to the preservation, protection and improvement of 
the environment, including resilience to climate change impacts”. 

4.2.3  Biodiversity Strategy (COM/2020/380) 

Article 2.1: A coherent network of protected areas: At least one third of protected areas – representing 10% of 
EU  Seas  –  should  be  strictly  protected  and  at  least  30%  of  the  sea  should  be  protected  in  the  EU.  Reduce 
negative impacts of fishing/extraction. 

4.2.4  Habitat Directive (Council Directive 92/43/EEC) 

Article 14: 1. Member States shall take measures to ensure that the taking in the wild of specimens of species 
of wild fauna and flora listed in Annex V as well as their exploitation is compatible with their being maintained 
at  a  favourable  conservation  status.  2.  Where  such  measures  are  deemed  necessary,  they  shall  include 
continuation of the surveillance provided for in Article 11. Such measures may also include in particular: 

—  regulations regarding access to certain property, 

—  temporary  or  local  prohibition  of  the  taking  of  specimens  in  the  wild  and  exploitation  of  certain 

populations, 

—  regulation of the periods and/or methods of taking specimens, 

11 

 
 
—  application,  when  specimens  are  taken,  of  hunting  and  fishing  rules  which  take  account  of  the 

conservation of such populations, 

—  establishment of a system of licenses for taking specimens or of quotas, 

—  assessment of the effect of the measures adopted. 

4.2.5  Action  Plan  to  Conserve  Fisheries  Resources  and  Protect  Marine  Species  (on  the 

way) 

—  By end of 2023, develop threshold values for the maximum allowable mortality rate from incidental 
catches  of  the  species  selected  by  Member  States,  as  part  of  the  implementation  of  the  Marine 
Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). 

—  Adopt fisheries management measures to implement these threshold values without delay through 

national measures or, where relevant, by submission of joint recommendations. 

—  Adopt national measures or submit joint recommendations to the Commission to minimise by-catch 

(or reduce it to the level that enables the full recovery of the populations) of: 

o  by  the  end  of  2023:  harbour  porpoise  in  the  Baltic  Proper  and  the  Black  Sea,  the  Iberian 

Atlantic and the common dolphin in the Bay of Biscay; 

o  by the end of 2024: angel sharks, common skate, guitarfish, Maltese skate, great white shark, 
sand tiger shark, smalltooth sand tiger shark, spiny butterfly ray, sturgeons, marine turtles, 
Balearic shearwater and Mediterranean monk seal; 

o  by  2030:  the  remaining  sensitive  marine  species  that  are  at  risk  of  incidental  catches, 

prioritising those in ‘unfavourable conservation status’ or threatened by extinction.- 

—  By 2030, based on the work by the Scientific Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF), 
the GFCM and other scientific institutions, such as the International Council for the Exploration of the 
Seas (ICES),  present  and  implement  additional  measures  to  boost  selectivity, starting  with  the  fish 
stocks with the highest expected biological gains. The measures should include: 

o  new and innovative gear techniques to reduce catches of small fish; 

o 

location or time-specific measures where there is clear evidence of  high concentrations of 
fish below the minimum conservation reference size. 

—  -Gradually phasing out bottom fishing in all MPAs (including Natura 2000) by 2030, in view of their 
key role in restoration of marine biodiversity and the importance of the  seabed  for  healthy marine 
ecosystems and climate change mitigation. 

4.2.6  Natural Restoration Law (on the way) 

Not yet a regulation, but aiming at: 

—  Safeguard 20% of ‘EU nature’ by 2030 + all ‘necessary ecosystems’ by 2050 

—  In particular for C-capture and storage: 

o  Seagrass beds 

o  Sediment bottoms 

o  Habitats for key species (dolphins, porpoises, nursery & spawning grounds) in good conditions: 

  30% @ 2030 

  60% @ 2040 

  90% @ 2050 

12 

 
 
 
 
All  the  dynamic-baseline  policies  related  and/associated  to  other  pressure  descriptors  (e.g., 
eutrophication, litter, noise) would be considered in the specific descriptors and indirectly they will 
have an impact and evaluated in the other descriptors (mainly biodiversity descriptors). 

13 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5  Descriptor 4. All elements of the marine food webs, to the extent that 
they  are  known,  occur  at  normal  abundance  and  diversity  and  levels 
capable  of  ensuring  the  long-term  abundance  of  the  species  and  the 
retention of their full reproductive capacity 

5.1  Drivers 

5.1.1  Established socio-economic developments 

For D4, the identified socio-economic developments are: 

—  Population evolution: 

Europe  maximum  at  2025  then  shrinking,  Southern  Europe  already  shrinking  (Vollset  et  al.,  2020)  and 
EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/proj_19np/default/table?lang=en) 

—  Long term economic growth 

—  Increasing demand for natural resources 

Expected to double by 2060 

—  Behavioural changes 

Increasing awareness, social changes in behaviour and innovation leading to a more circular economy 

5.1.2  Climate change 

Impacts on marine resources/habitats: reduction in abundance, distribution and extent. Same climate scenario 
as for D1 will be considered. 

5.1.3  Development in international cooperation 

—  Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction  

—  Agreement on the conservation of cetaceans of the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea and contiguous 

Atlantic area (ACCOBAMS): 

Annex 2 on Agreement: work out and implement measures to minimize the fishing negative effects on the 
conservation of cetacean. Most particularly, no vessels will be authorized to keep on board or to use any 
drift nets. Introduce or amend regulations with a view to preventing fishing gear from being discarded or 
left adrift at sea, and to require the immediate release of cetaceans caught incidentally in fishing gear in 
conditions that assure their survival; regulate the discharge at sea of, and adopt within the framework of 
other appropriate legal instruments stricter standards for, pollutants believed to have adverse effects on 
cetaceans 

14 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
—  Agreement on the Conservation of Small Cetaceans of the Baltic, North East Atlantic, Irish and North 

Seas (ASCOBANS): 

Annex.  Habitat  conservation  and  management:  Work  towards  (a)  the  prevention  of  the  release  of 
substances which are a potential threat to the health of the animals, (b) the development, in the light of 
available data indicating unacceptable interaction, of modifications of fishing gear and fishing practices in 
order to reduce by-catches and to prevent fishing gear from getting adrift or being discarded at sea, (c) the 
effective regulation, to reduce the impact on the animals, of activities which  seriously affect their food 
resources, and (d) the prevention of other significant disturbance, especially of an acoustic nature. 

—  Convention on biological diversity (CBD) (UN environment programme): 

Target 11 states that by 2020, at least 10% of coastal and marine areas, especially areas of particular 
importance  for  biodiversity  and  ecosystem  services,  are  conserved  through  effectively  and  equitably 
managed, ecologically representative and well connected systems of protected areas and other effective 
area-based  conservation  measures,  and  integrated  into  the  wider  landscapes  and  seascapes.  Although 
there is progress, the realization of this target in 2020 is still far behind, see Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). 
The  realization  of  other  targets  related  to  the  marine  environment  (sustainable  fisheries,  ecosystem 
restoration and resilience and knowledge, science and technology) also falls short. Ecosystem protection 
and restoration are vital to mitigate the effects of climate change in marine biodiversity. 

—  Kunming-Montreal  Global  Biodiversity  Framework 

(https://www.cbd.int/article/cop15-final-text-

kunming-montreal-gbf-221222) Document CBD/COP/15/L25: 

TARGET 2. Ensure that by 2030 at least 30% of areas of degraded coastal and marine ecosystems are 
under  effective  restoration,  in  order  to  enhance  biodiversity  and  ecosystem  functions  and  services, 
ecological integrity and connectivity.  

TARGET 3. Ensure and enable that by 2030 at least 30% of coastal and marine areas, especially areas of 
particular importance for biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services, are effectively conserved and 
managed through ecologically representative, well-connected and equitably governed systems of protected 
areas and other effective area-based conservation measures.  

TARGET  5.  Ensure  that  the  use,  harvesting  and  trade  of  wild  species  is  sustainable,  safe  and  legal, 
preventing  overexploitation,  minimizing  impacts  on  non-target  species  and  ecosystems,  applying  the 
ecosystem approach, while respecting and protecting customary sustainable use by indigenous peoples and 
local communities.  

TARGET  10.  Ensure  that  areas  under  agriculture,  aquaculture,  fisheries  and  forestry  are  managed 
sustainably,  in  particular  through  the  sustainable  use  of  biodiversity,  including  through  a  substantial 
increase  of  the  application  of  biodiversity  friendly  practices,  such  as  sustainable  intensification, 
agroecological and other innovative approaches contributing to the resilience and long-term efficiency and 
productivity of these production systems and to food security, conserving and restoring biodiversity and 
maintaining nature’s contributions to people, including ecosystem functions and services. The Sustainable 
Development Goals (SDGs). SDG14. By 2020, conserve at least 10 per cent of coastal and marine areas, 
consistent with national and international law and based on the best available scientific information 

—  Regional Sea conventions: OSPAR, HELCOM, Barcelona Convention and Bucharest Convention 

5.2  Main policies 

5.2.1  Habitat Directive (Council Directive 92/43/EEC) 

Article 14: 1. Member States shall take measures to ensure that the taking in the wild of specimens of species 
of wild fauna and flora listed in Annex V as well as their exploitation is compatible with their being maintained 
at  a  favourable  conservation  status.  2.  where  such  measures  are  deemed  necessary,  they  shall  include 
continuation of the surveillance provided for in Article 11. Such measures may also include in particular: 

—  regulations regarding access to certain property, 

15 

 
 
 
—  temporary  or  local  prohibition  of  the  taking  of  specimens  in  the  wild  and  exploitation  of  certain 

populations, 

—  regulation of the periods and/or methods of taking specimens, 

—  application,  when  specimens  are  taken,  of  hunting  and  fishing  rules  which  take  account  of  the 

conservation of such populations, 

—  establishment of a system of licenses for taking specimens or of quotas, 

—  assessment of the effect of the measures adopted. 

5.2.2  Birds Directive (Directive 2009/147/EC-Council Directive 79/409/EEC) 

Article 2: Member States shall take the requisite measures to maintain the population of the species  referred 
to in Article 1 at a level which corresponds in particular to ecological, scientific and cultural requirements, while 
taking account of economic and recreational requirements, or to adapt the population of these species to that 
level. 

Article 3: Point 1. In the light of the requirements referred to in Article 2, Member States shall take the requisite 
measures to preserve, maintain or re-establish a sufficient diversity and area of habitats for all the species of 
birds  referred  to  in  Article  1.  Point  2.  The  preservation,  maintenance  and  re-establishment  of  biotopes  and 
habitats  shall  include  primarily  the  following  measures:  (a)  creation  of  protected  areas;  (b)  upkeep  and 
management in accordance with the ecological needs of habitats inside and outside the protected zones; (c) re-
establishment  of  destroyed  biotopes;  (d)  creation  of  biotopes  Point  4.  Member  States  shall  take  similar 
measures for regularly occurring migratory species not listed in Annex I, bearing in mind their need for protection 
in the geographical sea and  land area where this  Directive applies, as  regards their breeding, moulting and 
wintering areas and staging posts along their migration routes. To this end, Member States shall pay particular 
attention to the protection of wetlands and particularly to wetlands of international importance. 

Article 5: Member States shall take the requisite measures to establish a general system of protection for all 
species of birds referred to in Article 1, prohibiting in particular: (a) deliberate killing or capture by any method; 
(b) deliberate destruction of, or damage to, their nests and eggs or removal of their nests; (c) taking their eggs 
in the wild and keeping these eggs even if empty; (d) deliberate disturbance of these birds particularly during 
the period of breeding and rearing, in so far as disturbance would be significant having regard to the objectives 
of this Directive; (e) keeping birds of species the hunting and capture of which is prohibited. 

5.2.3  Biodiversity Strategy (COM/2020/380) 

Article 2.1. A coherent network of protected areas: At least one third of protected areas – representing 10% of 
EU Seas – should be strictly protected and at least 30% of the sea should be protected in the EU. 

5.2.4  Natural Restoration Law (on the way) 

Not yet a regulation, but aiming at: 

—  Safeguard 20% of ‘EU nature’ by 2030 + all ‘necessary ecosystems’ by 2050 

—  In particular for C-capture and storage 

o  Seagrass beds 

o  Sediment bottoms 

o  Habitats for key species (dolphins, porpoises, nursery & spawning grounds) in good conditions: 

  30% @ 2030 

  60% @ 2040 

16 

 
 
 
 
 
  90% @ 2050 

5.2.5  Action  Plan  to  Conserve  Fisheries  Resources  and  Protect  Marine  Species  (on  the 

way) 

—  By end of 2023, develop threshold values for the maximum allowable mortality rate from incidental 
catches  of  the  species  selected  by  Member  States,  as  part  of  the  implementation  of  the  Marine 
Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). 

—  Adopt fisheries management measures to implement these threshold values without delay through 

national measures or, where relevant, by submission of joint recommendations. 

—  Adopt national measures or submit joint recommendations to the Commission to minimise by-catch 

(or reduce it to the level that enables the full recovery of the populations) of: 

o  by  the  end  of  2023:  harbour  porpoise  in  the  Baltic  Proper  and  the  Black  Sea,  the  Iberian 

Atlantic and the common dolphin in the Bay of Biscay; 

o  by the end of 2024: angel sharks, common skate, guitarfish, Maltese skate, great white shark, 
sand tiger shark, smalltooth sand tiger shark, spiny butterfly ray, sturgeons,  marine turtles, 
Balearic shearwater and Mediterranean monk seal; 

o  by  2030:  the  remaining  sensitive  marine  species  that  are  at  risk  of  incidental  catches, 

prioritising those in ‘unfavourable conservation status’ or threatened by extinction.- 

—  By 2030, based on the work by the Scientific Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF), 
the GFCM and other scientific institutions, such as the International Council for the Exploration of the 
Seas (ICES),  present  and  implement  additional  measures  to  boost  selectivity, starting  with  the  fish 
stocks with the highest expected biological gains. The measures should include: 

o  new and innovative gear techniques to reduce catches of small fish; 

o 

location or time-specific measures where there is clear evidence of  high concentrations of 
fish below the minimum conservation reference size. 

—  -Gradually phasing out bottom fishing in all MPAs (including Natura 2000) by 2030, in view of their 
key role in restoration of marine biodiversity and the importance of the  seabed  for  healthy marine 
ecosystems and climate change mitigation. 

All  the  dynamic-baseline  policies  related  and/associated  to  other  pressure  descriptors  (e.g., 
eutrophication, litter, noise) would be considered in the specific pressure descriptor and indirectly 
will be considered in the scenarios evaluating changes on biodiversity-related descriptors/criteria 
(i.e., D1, D3 and D4, D6). 

17 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6  Descriptor  5.  Human-induced  eutrophication  is  minimised,  especially 
adverse  effects  thereof,  such  as  losses  in  biodiversity,  ecosystem 
degradation,  harmful  algae  blooms  and  oxygen  deficiency  in  bottom 
waters. 

6.1  Drivers 

6.1.1  Established socio-economic developments 

For D5, the identified socio-economic developments are: 

—  Population evolution: 

Europe  maximum  at  2025  then  shrinking,  Southern  Europe  already  shrinking  (Vollset  et  al.,  2020)  and 
EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/proj_19np/default/table?lang=en) 

Food production and agricultural activity are predicted to increase in the following 20 years, requiring more 
water usage and retention in dams, resulting in controlled flow of water reaching coastal seas from land and 
increased amount of wastewater. This results in more wasted food and fertilization of farmlands, which might 
increase the spillover of nutrients to the environment and consequently to coastal waters. 

—  Long term economic growth 

—  Increasing demand for natural resources 

Expected to double by 2060 

—  Behavioural changes 

Increasing awareness, social changes in behaviour and innovation leading to a more circular economy 

6.1.2  Climate change 

Extreme  weather,  drought,  flooding  and  other  disasters  influences  riverine  nutrient  loads  and  atmospheric 
deposition. In turn, those changes will affect the nutrient loads into marine ecosystems. 

The mean ocean circulation pattern, stratification and mean water temperature are changing. The transport of 
nutrients in the ocean and the conditions for algal growth are affected by these changes. Additionally, increased 
CO2 in the atmosphere affects the carbonate chemistry of the ocean contributing to its acidification, while the 
rising temperatures contribute to lower the dissolved oxygen levels in the water. 

Same climate scenario as for D1 will be considered. 

6.1.3  Development in international cooperation 

—  Regional Sea conventions: OSPAR, HELCOM, Barcelona Convention and Bucharest Convention: 

18 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OSPAR: reduce inputs of phosphorus and nitrogen into areas where these are likely to cause pollution, in the 
order of 50 % compared with 1985  

HELCOM:  

  By  2030,  ensure  sustainable  food  production  systems  and  implement  resilient  agricultural 
practices  that  increase  productivity  and  production,  that  help  maintain  ecosystems,  that 
strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and 
other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality. 

  By 2030, improve water quality by reducing pollution, eliminating dumping and minimizing 
release of hazardous chemicals and materials, halving the proportion of untreated wastewater 
and substantially increasing recycling and safe reuse globally  

  By 2030, implement integrated water resources management at all levels, including through 

transboundary cooperation as appropriate  

  By 2025, prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of all kinds, in particular from land-

based activities, including marine debris and nutrient pollution  

—  International River Basin Districts Management Plans:  

ICPDR 

The 
2022 
(https://www.icpdr.org/main/sites/default/files/nodes/documents/danube_declaration_2022.pdf),  serves  as  a 
coordinating  mechanism  for  transboundary  water  management  within  the  basin;  The  Agreement  on  the 
International Commission for the Protection of the Elbe River (ICPER), The International Scheldt Commission 
(ISC), International Sava River Basin Commission (Sava Commission), Joint water management of the Finnish-
Norwegian river basin district.): 

Declaration 

Danube 

—  Kunming-Montreal  Global  Biodiversity  Framework 

(https://www.cbd.int/article/cop15-final-text-

kunming-montreal-gbf-221222) Document CBD/COP/15/L25: 

TARGET 7 - Reduce pollution risks and the negative impact of pollution from all sources, by2030, to levels that 
are not harmful to biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services, considering cumulative effects, including: 
reducing  excess  nutrients lost  to  the  environment  by  at  least  half  including  through  more  efficient  nutrient 
cycling  and  use;  reducing  the  overall  risk  from  pesticides  and  highly  hazardous  chemicals  by  at  least  half 
including  through  integrated  pest  management,  based  on  science,  taking  into  account  food  security  and 
livelihoods; and also preventing, reducing, and working towards eliminating plastic pollution”.:  

—  The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): 

SDG14. By 2025, prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of all kinds, in particular from land-based 
activities, including marine debris and nutrient pollution. 

6.2  Main policies 

6.2.1  The Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) 

The WFD is an eutrophication directive that defines environmental objectives. The aim of European water policy 
is to achieve good ecological status in all rivers, lakes, coastal and transitional waters by 2027. The Directive 
covers water pollutants in two ways: by identifying and regulating those of greatest concern across the EU (the 
priority substances listed in Annex X to the WFD) and by requiring Member States to identify substances of 
national  or  local  concern  (river  basin  specific  pollutants  included  by  Member  States  in  their  River  Basin 
Management Plans). 

Member States have defined water-type specific environmental standards to support the achievement of good 
ecological  status.  As  natural  and  background  concentrations  of  nutrients  vary  between  and  within  the 
subregional seas, nutrient targets or thresholds for achieving  good ecological status have to  be determined 
while taking into account local conditions. 

19 

 
 
6.2.2  The Nitrates Directive (91/676/EEC) 

Council  Directive  concerning  the  protection  of  waters  against  pollution  caused  by  nitrates  from  agricultural 
sources. 

The Nitrates Directive requires EU Member States to monitor the quality of waters and to identify areas that 
drain into polluted waters or at risk of pollution. These concern waters that due to agricultural activities are 
eutrophic or could contain a concentration of more than 50 mg/l of nitrates. Those areas are defined as Nitrate 
Vulnerable Zones (NVZs). 

The Nitrates Directive forms an integral part of the overarching Water Framework Directive and is one of the 
key laws protecting waters against agricultural pressures. 

6.2.3  The  Urban  Waste  Water  Treatment  Directive  (UWWT)  (Council  Directive 

91/271/EEC) 

The regulations have obligations for Member States in respect of the collection, treatment and monitoring of 
urban waste water: 

—  Establish  systems  of  prior  regulation  or  authorization  for  all  urban  and  industrial  waste  water 

discharges into urban sewage collecting systems. 

—  Establish systems of prior regulation and / or specific authorization and permits for food processing 

industries. 

—  All  urban  waste  water  generated  in  agglomerations  >  2000  p.e.  must  be  supplied  with  collecting 

systems. 

—  Member States should take measures to limit pollution of receiving waters from storm water overflows 

via collecting systems. 

—  Waste water treatment is provided for all agglomerations at the level specified by the Directive. 

—  Maintain the technical requirements for the design, construction, operation and maintenance of (urban) 

wastewater treatment plants. 

—  Protect the environment from adverse effects of the discharge of wastewater. 

—  Member States ensure  that  monitoring  programs  of  discharges from urban  waste  water treatment 
plants and receiving  waters  are  in  place  and that  they  correspond  to  the  requirements  in  terms of 
parameters monitored, analytical method and sampling frequency. 

6.2.4  The Surface Water for Drinking Directive (75/440/EEC) 

The sampling stations representative of surface waters of Member States (Article 6.1.a.i). These stations are 
used to identify polluted waters based on exceedance or potential exceedance of 50 mg/l nitrate (Annex I.A.1). 
Annex 1.A.3 also gives "eutrophic" or "may become eutrophic" as other criteria for identifying polluted waters. 
Though not strictly relevant to the eutrophication criteria (phosphorus is often the  limiting nutrient for algal 
growth in freshwaters), monthly sampling of nitrate at those stations described in Article 6.1.a.i would in practice 
be useful in the assessment of eutrophication. 

6.2.5  The Industrial Emissions Directive (2010/75/EU) 

The Industrial Emissions Directive -IED- (2010/75/EU) is the main EU instrument regulating pollutant emissions 
to air, water and land (including NH3, NOX, N2O, total N, total P) from industrial installations. The IED aims to 
achieve a high level of protection of human health and the environment taken as a whole by reducing harmful 
industrial emissions across the EU, in particular through better application of Best Available Techniques (BAT). 

20 

 
 
 
 
 
6.2.6  National Emission of Certain Atmospheric Pollutants Directive (2016/2284 /EU) 

The National Emission reduction Commitments Directive -NECD- (2016/2284/EU) limits the maximum national 
emission of five main pollutants in the air (NOx, NMVOCs, SO2, NH3 and PM2.5) to move towards achieving 
levels of air quality that do not give rise to significant negative impacts on and risks to human health and the 
environment (acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone pollution). 

6.2.7  Bathing Water Directive (2006/7/EC) 

6.2.8  Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC) 

6.2.9  Common Agricultural policy 

Financially supports environmentally friendly farming 

6.2.10  Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 

Nutrient losses reduced by 50%. 

6.2.11  Zero Pollution Action Plan 

Nutrient losses (from agriculture) reduced by 50%. 

25% of organic farming (Biodiversity Strategy and Farm to Fork Strategy) 

6.2.12  Decision (EU) 2022/591 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 6 April 

2022 on a General Union Environment Action Programme to 2030. 

Marine  and  coastal  ecosystems    are  being  degraded  and  negatively  impacted  through  harmful  practices, 
pollution and processes such as eutrophication and acidification, impacting the biodiversity they sustain and 
the ecosystem services and functions they provide, as well as their capacity to act as carbon sinks. Urgent action 
is required to protect and restore marine and coastal ecosystems, including the ocean floor. 

6.2.13  The  Strategic  Innovation  Agenda  of  the  European  Institute  of  Innovation  and 
Technology (EIT) 2021-2027: Boosting the Innovation Talent and Capacity of Europe 
and repealing Decision No 1312/2013/EU. 

Appendix 2.2:  Marine and freshwater ecosystem degradation.  Innovation that can enhance, restore and recover 
marine, coastal and freshwater capital.   

Appendix  2.3:  Non-fed  aquaculture  is  able  to  recycle  the  excess  nutrients  that  would  otherwise  cause 
eutrophication.  The reuse of wastewater prevents shortages that may be exacerbated by a changing climate. 

6.2.14  Directive (EU) 2015/2193, the limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the 

air from medium combustion plants. 

The  Union's  international  obligations  in  relation  to  air  pollution,  which  are  designed  to  abate  acidification, 
eutrophication,  ground-level  ozone  and  emissions  of  particulate  matter,  are  agreed  under  the  Gothenburg 
Protocol  to  the  Convention  on  Long-range  Transboundary  Air  Pollution,  which  was  amended  in  2012  to 
strengthen  the  existing  reduction  commitments  for  sulphur  dioxide,  nitrogen  oxides,  ammonia  and  volatile 
organic compounds. 

6.2.15  Directive 2009/126/EC, Stage II petrol vapour recovery during refuelling of motor 

vehicles at service stations. 

The Geneva Protocol on the control of emissions of volatile organic compounds or their transboundary fluxes 
sets emission reduction targets for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and the Gothenburg Protocol to abate 
acidification,  eutrophication  and ground-level  ozone  (4)  sets  emission  ceilings for  four pollutants  —  sulphur 

21 

 
 
 
dioxide,  nitrogen  oxides,  VOCs  and  ammonia  —  and  requires  best  available  techniques  to  be  used  to  keep 
emissions down. 

22 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7  Descriptor  6.  Sea-floor  integrity  is  at  a  level  that  ensures  that  the 
structure and functions of the ecosystems are safeguarded and benthic 
ecosystems, in particular, are not adversely affected. 

7.1  Drivers 

7.1.1  Established socio-economic developments 

For D6, the identified socio-economic developments are: 

—  Population evolution: 

Europe  maximum  at  2025  then  shrinking,  Southern  Europe  already  shrinking  (Vollset  et  al.,  2020)  and 
EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/proj_19np/default/table?lang=en) 

—  Long term economic growth 

—  Increasing demand for natural resources 

Expected to double by 2060 

—  Behavioural changes 

Increasing awareness, social changes in behaviour and innovation leading to a more circular economy 

7.1.2  Climate change 

Impacts on marine resources and their habitats: reduction in abundance, distribution and extent. Same climate 
scenario as for D1 will be considered. 

7.1.3  Development in international cooperation 

—  Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction  

—  Convention on biological diversity (CBD) (UN environment programme): 

Target  11  states  that  by  2020,  at  least  10%  of  coastal  and  marine  areas,  especially  areas  of  particular 
importance for biodiversity and ecosystem services, are conserved through effectively and equitably managed, 
ecologically  representative  and  well  connected  systems  of  protected  areas  and  other  effective  area-based 
conservation measures, and integrated into the wider landscapes and seascapes. Although there is progress, 
the realization of this target in 2020 is still far behind, see Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). The realization of 
other targets  related to the marine environment (sustainable fisheries, ecosystem restoration and resilience 
and  knowledge,  science  and  technology)  also  falls  short.  Ecosystem  protection  and  restoration  are  vital  to 
mitigate the effects of climate change in marine biodiversity. 

—  Kunming-Montreal  Global  Biodiversity  Framework 

(https://www.cbd.int/article/cop15-final-text-

kunming-montreal-gbf-221222) Document CBD/COP/15/L25: 

23 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
TARGET 2: Ensure that by 2030 at least 30% of areas of degraded coastal and marine ecosystems are under 
effective restoration, in order to enhance biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services, ecological integrity 
and connectivity.  

TARGET  3:  Ensure  and  enable  that  by  2030  at  least  30%  of  coastal  and  marine  areas,  especially  areas  of 
particular  importance  for  biodiversity  and  ecosystem  functions  and  services,  are  effectively  conserved  and 
managed  through  ecologically  representative,  well-connected  and  equitably  governed  systems  of  protected 
areas and other effective area-based conservation measures.  

TARGET 5: Ensure that the use, harvesting and trade of wild species is sustainable, safe and legal, preventing 
overexploitation, minimizing impacts on non-target species and ecosystems, applying the ecosystem approach, 
while respecting and protecting customary sustainable use by indigenous peoples and local communities.  

TARGET 10: Ensure that areas under agriculture, aquaculture, fisheries and forestry are managed sustainably, 
in  particular  through  the  sustainable  use  of  biodiversity,  including  through  a  substantial  increase  of  the 
application  of  biodiversity  friendly  practices,  such  as  sustainable  intensification,  agroecological  and  other 
innovative  approaches  contributing  to  the  resilience  and  long-term  efficiency  and  productivity  of  these 
production  systems  and  to  food  security,  conserving  and  restoring  biodiversity  and  maintaining  nature’s 
contributions to people, including ecosystem functions and services: 

—  The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): 

SDG14.  By  2020,  conserve  at  least  10  per  cent  of  coastal  and  marine  areas,  consistent  with  national  and 
international law and based on the best available scientific information 

—  Regional Sea conventions: OSPAR, HELCOM, Barcelona Convention and Bucharest Convention 

7.2  Main policies 

7.2.1  Habitat Directive (Council Directive 92/43/EEC) 

Article 14: 1. Member States shall take measures to ensure that the taking in the wild of specimens of species 
of wild fauna and flora listed in Annex V as well as their exploitation is compatible with their being maintained 
at  a  favourable  conservation  status.  2.  Where  such  measures  are  deemed  necessary,  they  shall  include 
continuation of the surveillance provided for in Article 11. Such measures may also include in particular: 

—  regulations regarding access to certain property, 

—  temporary  or  local  prohibition  of  the  taking  of  specimens  in  the  wild  and  exploitation  of  certain 

populations, 

—  regulation of the periods and/or methods of taking specimens, 

—  application,  when  specimens  are  taken,  of  hunting  and  fishing  rules  which  take  account  of  the 

conservation of such populations, 

—  establishment of a system of licenses for taking specimens or of quotas, 

—  assessment of the effect of the measures adopted. 

7.2.2  Biodiversity Strategy (COM/2020/380) 

Article 2.1. A coherent network of protected areas: At least one third of protected areas – representing 10% of 
EU Seas – should be strictly protected and at least 30% of the sea should be protected in the EU. 

7.2.3  Natural Restoration Law (on the way) 

Not yet a regulation, but aiming at: 

—  Safeguard 20% of ‘EU nature’ by 2030 + all ‘necessary ecosystems’ by 2050 

—  In particular for C-capture and storage 

o  Seagrass beds 

24 

 
 
 
o  Sediment bottoms 

o  Habitats for key species (dolphins, porpoises, nursery & spawning grounds) in good conditions: 

  30% @ 2030 

  60% @ 2040 

  90% @ 2050 

7.2.4  Action  Plan  to  Conserve  Fisheries  Resources  and  Protect  Marine  Species  (on  the 

way) 

—  By end of 2023, develop threshold values for the maximum allowable mortality rate from incidental 
catches  of  the  species  selected  by  Member  States,  as  part  of  the  implementation  of  the  Marine 
Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). 

—  Adopt fisheries management measures to implement these  threshold values without delay through 

national measures or, where relevant, by submission of joint recommendations. 

—  Adopt national measures or submit joint recommendations to the Commission to minimise by-catch 

(or reduce it to the level that enables the full recovery of the populations) of: 

o  by  the  end  of  2023:  harbour  porpoise  in  the  Baltic  Proper  and  the  Black  Sea,  the  Iberian 

Atlantic and the common dolphin in the Bay of Biscay; 

o  by the end of 2024: angel sharks, common skate, guitarfish, Maltese skate, great white shark, 
sand tiger shark, smalltooth sand tiger shark, spiny butterfly ray, sturgeons, marine turtles, 
Balearic shearwater and Mediterranean monk seal; 

o  by  2030:  the  remaining  sensitive  marine  species  that  are  at  risk  of  incidental  catches, 

prioritising those in ‘unfavourable conservation status’ or threatened by extinction.- 

—  By 2030, based on the work by the Scientific Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF), 
the GFCM and other scientific institutions, such as the International Council for the Exploration of the 
Seas (ICES),  present  and  implement  additional  measures  to  boost  selectivity, starting  with  the  fish 
stocks with the highest expected biological gains. The measures should include: 

o  new and innovative gear techniques to reduce catches of small fish; 

o 

location or time-specific measures where there is clear evidence of  high concentrations of 
fish below the minimum conservation reference size. 

—  -Gradually phasing out bottom fishing in all MPAs (including Natura 2000) by 2030, in  view of their 
key role in restoration of marine biodiversity and the importance of the  seabed  for  healthy marine 
ecosystems and climate change mitigation. 

All  the  dynamic-baseline  policies  related  and/associated  to  other  pressure  descriptors  (e.g., 
eutrophication, litter, noise) would be considered in the specific pressure descriptor and indirectly 
will be considered in the scenarios evaluating changes on biodiversity-related descriptors/criteria 
(i.e., D1, D3 and D4, D6). 

25 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8  Descriptor 7. Permanent alteration of hydrographical conditions does 

not adversely affect marine ecosystems. 

Descriptor 7 is primarily a ‘pressure’ descriptor (with a minor “status” component) that focuses on permanently 
altered hydrographical conditions (often at a localized scale), which predominantly arise from pressures causing 
structural alteration of the coast or seabed: coastal activities causing topographical changes (e.g., land claim, 
barrages, sea defences) and coastal and offshore infrastructures (e.g., ports, wind farms, oil rigs, pipelines, heat, 
and brine outfalls). Hence, the pressure is the change in morphology of the seabed/coast or change in habitat 
(e.g.,  from  sediment  to  concrete/metal)  that  causes  hydrographical  changes.  These  changes  of  the 
hydrographical  conditions  consequently  will  act  as  a  pressure  that  is  impacting  the  habitat  or  even  the 
ecosystem.  Assessment  for  this  descriptor  should  consider  the  cumulative  ‘impact’  of  all  these  ‘localized 
activities’ that act as pressures, linking them also to the associated physical loss and damage. In this sense the 
total pressure from D7 needs to be considered with other impacts in the assessments of each seabed and water 
column habitat under D1 and D6, and to a lesser extent also with impacts on D4. 

8.1  Drivers 

8.1.1  Established socio-economic developments 

For D7, the identified socio-economic developments are: 

—  Population evolution: 

Europe  maximum  at  2025  then  shrinking,  Southern  Europe  already  shrinking  (Vollset  et  al.,  2020)  and 
EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/proj_19np/default/table?lang=en) 

—  Energy 

Long-term economic  growth  still requiring  more energy,  different scenarios for Europe forecast an increase 
between 5-10% until 2030 (https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2020, EEA and EUROSTAT), with 
an increasing share of this generated by marine related renewables (wind, waves, tides). 

The  EU  strategy  for offshore  renewable  energy  sets  targets  for  an  installed  capacity  of  at  least  60  GW  of 
offshore wind and 1 GW of ocean energy by 2030, and 300 GW and 40 GW, respectively, by 2050. The actual 
situation and forecasts fall short of these numbers (e.g., installation of only 25GW offshore wind power until 
2027, windeurope.org), actually only about 50% of the annual installations needed for meeting the targets are 
built. 

—  Natural resources 

The demand for natural resources and raw materials is increasing and for many expected to double by 2060. 

This especially concerns sand extraction/mining (which globally has tripled the last 2 decades reaching now 
50 billion tonnes a year). Annually, approx. 40 million m3 of marine sand and gravel are extracted, alone, from 
the North European inner (<60m water depth) continental shelf (www.sandandgravel.com/extraction). The 
short-term forecast is that the extraction will increase significantly. 

—  Increasing maritime transport, shipping, and tourism 

As demand for global freight increases, maritime trade volumes are set to triple by 2050 (OECD). 

Each year, more than 400 million passengers embark and disembark at European ports. 

26 

 
 
 
 
8.1.2  Climate change 

Same climate scenario as for D1 will be considered. 

8.1.3  Development in international cooperation 

To  achieve  GES  the  MSFD  requires  Member  States  to  develop  marine/maritime  strategies  that  serve  as  an 
Action  Plan  applying  the  Ecosystem  Approach  and  using  existing  regional  cooperation  structures  (OSPAR, 
HELCOM, Barcelona Convention). 

The OSPAR Commission published in 2012 an advice  document on MSFD descriptor 7 in which it considered 
approaches  for  target  setting  (MSFD  Advice  document  on  Good  environmental  status  -  Descriptor  7: 
Hydrographical  conditions.  A  living  document  -  Version  17  January  2012  (OSPAR  publication  583/2012).) 
However, in 2015 OSPAR changed their approach to the following statement “Under the condition that effects 
of  the  permanent  changes  of  hydrographical  conditions  are  restricted  to  the  coastal  waters,  it  was 
recommended that Descriptor 7 does not need further work in OSPAR”. 

No other work specifically addressing D7 is known. 

8.2  Main policies 

8.2.1 

Integrated Maritime Policy (2014/89/EC) 

The Maritime Spatial Planning (Directive 2014/89/EU) Art 5: that states “Through their maritime spatial plans, 
Member States shall aim to contribute to the sustainable development of energy sectors at sea, of maritime 
transport, and of the fisheries and aquaculture sectors, and to the preservation, protection and improvement of 
the environment, including resilience to climate change impacts”. 

8.2.2  Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) 

Hydromorphological  pressures  (e.g.,  abstractions,  damming,  etc.)  and  their  impacts  on  the  type-specific 
hydromorphological conditions and the biological quality elements need to be evaluated. Hydromorphological 
functions  and  features  (e.g.,  energy,  channel  morphology,  sediments, tides)  are  key  factors  that  need  to  be 
considered for determining Good Ecological Status in coastal and transitional waters 

27 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
9  Descriptor 8. Concentrations of contaminants are at levels not giving 

rise to pollution effects. 

9.1  Drivers 

9.1.1  Established socio-economic developments 

For D8, the identified socio-economic developments are: 

—  Population evolution: 

Europe  maximum  at  2025  then  shrinking,  Southern  Europe  already  shrinking  (Vollset  et  al.,  2020)  and 
EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/proj_19np/default/table?lang=en) 

—  Long term economic growth 

—  Increasing demand for natural resources 

Expected to double by 2060 

—  Behavioural changes 

Increasing awareness, social changes in behaviour and innovation leading to a more circular economy 

9.1.2  Climate change 

The mean ocean circulation pattern, stratification, mean temperature are changing, affecting the distribution 
and fate of contaminants in the ocean.  

Concentration and distribution of phytoplankton, zooplankton, bacteria and detritus are changing, affecting the 
fate of hydrophobic contaminants in the ocean.   

Extreme weather conditions, drought, floods and other disasters affect the import of contaminants from land 
and air. 

Same climate scenario as for D1 will be considered. 

9.1.3  Development in international cooperation 

—  Agenda 2030 and the global sustainability goals (UN, 2015) 

One of the targets in Agenda 2030 is to achieve the environmentally sound management of chemicals and all 
wastes throughout their life cycle, in accordance with the agreed international  frameworks, and significantly 
reduce their release to air, water and soil in order to minimise their adverse impacts on human health and the 
environment. This target is also related to the global chemicals strategy (SAICM).  

SDG14: By 2025, prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of all kinds, in particular from land-based 
activities, including marine debris and nutrient pollution. 

—  The global chemicals strategy – SAICM (Strategic Approach to International Chemicals Management) 

28 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
—  Globally harmonized system of classification and labelling of chemicals (GHS) 

The United Nations decided in 2002 to adopt a globally harmonised system of classification and labelling of 
chemicals  (GHS).  The  system  aims  at  ensuring  availability  of  information  on  the  dangerous  properties  of 
chemicals to enhance the protection of human health and the environment during the handling, transport and 
use  of  chemicals.  The  part  of  GHS  concerning  safety  data  sheets  have  been  implemented  in  the  Reach 
Regulation (Regulation (EU) No 1907/2006 concerns the registration, evaluation, authorisation and restriction 
of chemical substances). 

—  Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) 

The  objective  of  the  Stockholm  Convention  is  a  global  phase  out  of  substances  that  are  persistent  in  the 
environment, are being absorbed by plants and animals, and have negative effects on human health or the 
environment. The Stockholm Convention contains a list of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) that are banned 
or restricted. 

—  POPs Regulation 

The EU POPs Regulation is implementing the Stockholm Convention by banning or restricting the use of the 
POPs substances in both chemical products and articles within the EU. The POPs Regulation is also implementing 
the POPs Protocol to the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). 

—  Rotterdam Convention - Prior Informed Consent (PIC) 

The Rotterdam Convention makes it possible for countries to in advance receive information about import and 
export of certain dangerous chemicals and pesticides that are banned or severely restricted in other countries. 
The countries can then choose to approve or reject the import in accordance with their national rules. 

—  Minamata Convention on mercury 

The Minamata Convention on mercury regulates mercury in a life cycle perspective, from primary mining to 
final disposal. It is banning or restricting mercury in different products and industrial processes as of 2020 and 
2025. The convention entered into force in 2017. The Mercury Regulation implements the parts of the Minamata 
Convention previously lacking common regulations within the EU. Regulation (EU) 2017/852 of the European 
Parliament and of the Council of 17 May 2017 on mercury, and repealing Regulation (EC) No 1102/2008 

—  Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal 

—  Convention  on  the  Ban  on  the  Import  into  Africa  and  the  Control  of  Transboundary  Movement  and 

Management of Hazardous Wastes within Africa (Bamako Convention) 

—  Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP Convention) 

—  Convention on the Prevention of Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter (London Convention) 

—  International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Co-Operation (OPRC Convention) 

—  Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer 

—  Kunming-Montreal  Global  Biodiversity  Framework 

(https://www.cbd.int/article/cop15-final-text-

kunming-montreal-gbf-221222) Document CBD/COP/15/L25: 

TARGET 7: Reduce pollution risks and the negative impact of pollution from all sources, by2030, to levels that 
are not harmful to biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services, considering cumulative effects, including: 
reducing  excess  nutrients lost  to  the  environment  by  at  least  half  including  through  more  efficient  nutrient 
cycling  and  use;  reducing  the  overall  risk  from  pesticides  and  highly  hazardous  chemicals  by  at  least  half 
including  through  integrated  pest  management,  based  on  science,  taking  into  account  food  security  and 
livelihoods; and also preventing, reducing, and working towards eliminating plastic pollution”. 

29 

 
 
9.2  Main policies 

9.2.1  Directive  2008/105/EC  setting  environmental  quality  standards  in  the  field  of 

water policies) 

It sets out environmental quality standards (EQSs) for the presence in surface water of certain substances or 
groups of substances identified as priority pollutants because of the significant risk, they pose to or via the 
aquatic environment. These standards are in line with the strategy and objectives of the European Union (EU)’s 
water framework directive (Directive 2000/60/EC).It repeals Directives 82/176/EEC, 83/513/EEC, 84/156/EEC, 
84/491/EEC and 86/280/EEC with effect from 22 December 2012. 

The EQSs in Directive 2008/105/EC are limits on the concentration of the priority substances and eight other 
pollutants in water (or biota), i.e. thresholds which must not be exceeded if a good chemical status is to be met. 
There are two types of water standard. 

—  A threshold for the average concentration of the substance concerned calculated from measurements 
over a 1-year period. The purpose of this standard is to ensure protection against long-term exposure 
to pollutants in the aquatic environment. 

—  A  maximum  allowable  concentration  of  the  substance  concerned,  i.e.  the  maximum  for  any  single 
measurement. The purpose of this standard is to ensure protection against short-term exposure, i.e. 
pollution peaks. 

The EQSs are different for: 

—  inland surface waters (rivers and lakes); 

—  other surface waters (transitional, coastal and territorial waters). 

9.2.2  Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC (WFD) 

The provisions outlined in the WFD are pivotal. It covers surface water pollutants in two ways. First, identifying 
and  regulating  those  of  greatest  concern  across  the  EU  (the  priority  substances  listed  in  Annex  X  to  the 
Directive). Second, by requiring Member States to identify substances of national or local concern (river basin 
specific pollutants included by Member States in their River Basin Management Plans). 

A Watch List mechanism was established to improve the available information on identifying the substances 
of greatest concern. Member States have to monitor the substances on the list at least once per year for up to 
four years. The watch list was established in 2015, updated in 2018 and 2020 and again in 2022. 

December  2019,  a  Fitness  Check  concluded  that  water  legislation  is  broadly  fit  for  purpose,  with  room  for 
improvement related to investments, implementation, integrating water into other policies, chemical pollution, 
administrative simplification and digitalization. 

Based on the findings, progress towards good status can be expected to be slow but steady. 

The slow rate of progress can be attributed to the long-time lags for nature to respond to measures. It is also 
more  difficult  to  make  progress  visible  due  to  the  ‘one-out-all-out’  principle  underpinning  comprehensive 
protection  of  water  bodies  and  ecosystems,  under  which  good  status  is  not  granted  if  any  of  the  relevant 
parameters are less than good.  

As for future challenges, this fitness check finds that the Water Framework Directive is sufficiently prescriptive 
with regard to the pressures to be addressed, and yet flexible enough to accommodate emerging challenges 
such  as  climate  change,  water  scarcity  and  pollutants  of  emerging  concern  (e.g.  micro-plastics  and 
pharmaceuticals). 

A key area where there is room to improve and to achieve better results is on chemicals. 

In  2022  the  Commission  adopted  a  proposal  to  revise  the  list  of  priority  substances  in  surface  water.  24 
substances are proposed for addition as well as a standard for total pesticides. The proposed substances pose 
well-documented risks to nature and human health. They include PFAS - a large group of “forever chemicals” 
used in cookware, clothing and furniture, fire-fighting foams and personal care products; a range of pesticides; 
bisphenol A, a plasticiser and a component of plastic packaging; and a number of pharmaceuticals used as 
painkillers, anti-convulsants or antibiotics. 

30 

 
 
The Commission has also proposed to update quality standards for a range of substances already on the list, 
mainly to make standards stricter because of evidence indicating a higher risk than originally identified. Among 
the substances with stricter standards are some metals and industrial chemicals. Four other existing priority 
substances are proposed for removal from the list, and another for integration into the new PFAS group, and 
eight already-regulated “other pollutants” have been re-designated as priority substances, resulting in a total 
of 73. 

In the EU only 40% of surfaces waters are in good status 

There is growing concern that the objective of good status, or higher, in all EU waters by 2027 is a long way 
from being achieved in many countries. 

Links between WFD and MSFD: 

While keeping the link between the WFD and the MSFD is crucial, this is a separate process and with different 
objectives.  There  is  a  need  to  identify  which  WFD  PS  are  important  for  MSFD  monitoring  beyond  territorial 
waters. Key properties that control the substance’s transport and fate behaviour and that should be considered 
when evaluating the relevance of PS for the marine environment, and thus for MSFD monitoring, include: 

—  Solubility in water 

—  Long-range-transport potential 

—  Volatilization 

—  Hydrophobicity  

—  Persistence 

—  Bioaccumulation potential 

—  Toxicity 

9.2.3  The  Urban  Waste  Water  Treatment  Directive  (UWWT)  (Council  Directive 

91/271/EEC) 

In the EU: 

—  Over 90% of urban wastewater is dealt with in line with EU standards 

—  92% of toxic pollutants in wastewater come from the pharmaceutical and cosmetics sectors 

—  10 million Europeans still lack access to basic sanitation services 

Indicators to assess discharges of pollutants to European surface waters are: 

—  the percentage of the national population connected to wastewater treatment facilities; 

—  the percentage of the national population connected to tertiary wastewater treatment facilities. 

In 2017, most European countries collected and treated sewage to tertiary level from most of their population. 
In EU-27 countries (EEA 2020), 69 % of the population were connected to tertiary level treatment and 13 % to 
secondary level treatment. 

Countries  where  less  than  80  %  of  the  population  were  connected  to  public  urban  wastewater  treatment 
systems  were  Albania,  Bosnia  and  Herzegovina,  Bulgaria,  Croatia,  Ireland,  Italy,  Lithuania,  Poland,  Romania, 
Serbia, Slovakia and Slovenia. 

9.2.4  Zero Pollution Action Plan COM(2021)  

Among the main targets for 2030, the ZPAP list the following: 

—  Reduce the use and risk of chemical pesticides by 50 % 

—  Reduce the use of the more hazardous chemical pesticides by 50 % 

—  Reduce the sale of antimicrobials for farmed animals and in aquaculture by 50 % 

31 

 
  
 
9.2.5  Regulation (EU) 2019/1021 implements the EU’s international commitments under 
the Stockholm Convention on persistent organic pollutants (chemical substances). 

The manufacture, placing on the market, and use of substances listed in Annex I either on their own, in mixtures, 
or in articles is prohibited (e.g. Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid and its derivatives (PFOS)) 

The  manufacturing,  placing  on  the  market,  and  use  of  substances  listed  in  Annex  II  either  on  their  own,  in 
mixtures, or in articles is restricted. The conditions of restrictions for each listed substance are detailed in the 
Annex. 

9.2.6  REACH Regulation 

Following a new restriction under the REACH Regulation, adopted on 10 October 2018, 33 chemicals that are 
Carcinogenic, Mutagenic or Toxic for reproduction (CMR) can no longer be used in everyday clothing, textiles and 
footwear above a certain concentration limit. The restriction was became applicable within 24 months. 

9.2.7  Chemicals strategy for sustainability (published on 14 October 2020) 

It is part of the EU’s zero pollution ambition, which is a key commitment of the European Green Deal: 

—  banning the most harmful chemicals in consumer products - allowing their use only where essential 

—  account for the cocktail effect of chemicals when assessing risks from chemicals 

—  phasing out the use of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the EU, unless their use is essential 

—  boosting the investment and innovative capacity for production and use of chemicals that are safe and 

sustainable by design, and throughout their life cycle 

—  promoting the EU’s resilience of supply and sustainability of critical chemicals 

—  establishing a simpler “one substance one assessment”  process for the risk and hazard assessment 

of chemicals 

—  playing  a  leading  role  globally  by  championing  and  promoting  high  standards  and  not  exporting 

chemicals banned in the EU 

9.2.8 

Industrial Emission Directive (IED) (revised in 2022) 

Installations regulated by the IED account for about 20% of the EU’s overall pollutant emissions by mass into 
the  air,  around  20%  of  pollutant  emissions  into  water  and  approximately  40%  of  greenhouse  gas  (GHG) 
emissions. 

Room for improvement: currently, 80% of industrial plant permits set the least ambitious levels of pollutants 
that are legally allowed. 

All  the  dynamic-baseline  policies  related  and/associated  to  eutrophication  descriptor  would  be 
considered  in  the  specific  pressure  descriptor  and  indirectly  will  be  considered  in  the  scenarios 
evaluating changes on contaminant-related descriptors/criteria. 

32 

 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
10  Descriptor 9. Contaminants in fish and other seafood for human 

consumption do not exceed levels established by Community legislation 
or other relevant standards. 

10.1  Drivers 

10.1.1  Established socio-economic developments 

For D9, the identified socio-economic developments are: 

—  Population evolution: 

Europe  maximum  at  2025  then  shrinking,  Southern  Europe  already  shrinking  (Vollset  et  al.,  2020)  and 
EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/proj_19np/default/table?lang=en) 

—  Long term economic growth 

—  Increasing demand for natural resources 

Expected to double by 2060 

—  Behavioural changes 

Increasing awareness, social changes in behaviour and innovation leading to a more circular economy 

10.1.2  Climate change 

The mean ocean circulation pattern, stratification, mean temperature are changing, affecting the distribution 
and fate of contaminants in the ocean.  

Concentration and distribution of phytoplankton, zooplankton, bacteria and detritus are changing, affecting the 
fate of hydrophobic contaminants in the ocean.   

Extreme weather conditions, drought, floods and other disasters affect the import of contaminants from land 
and air. 

Same climate scenario as for D1 will be considered. 

10.1.3  Development in international cooperation 

—  Agenda 2030 and the global sustainability goals (UN, 2015) 

One of the targets in Agenda 2030 is to achieve the environmentally sound management of chemicals and all 
wastes throughout their life cycle, in accordance with the agreed international frameworks, and significantly 
reduce their release to air, water and soil in order to minimise their adverse impacts on human health and the 
environment. This target is also related to the global chemicals strategy (SAICM).  

SDG14: By 2025, prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of all kinds, in particular from land-based 
activities, including marine debris and nutrient pollution. 

33 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
—  The global chemicals strategy – SAICM (Strategic Approach to International Chemicals Management) 

—  Globally harmonized system of classification and labelling of chemicals (GHS) 

The United Nations decided in 2002 to adopt a globally harmonised system of classification and labelling of 
chemicals  (GHS).  The  system  aims  at  ensuring  availability  of  information  on  the  dangerous  properties  of 
chemicals to enhance the protection of human health and the environment during the handling, transport and 
use  of  chemicals.  The  part  of  GHS  concerning  safety  data  sheets  have  been  implemented  in  the  Reach 
Regulation (Regulation (EU) No 1907/2006 concerns the registration, evaluation, authorisation and restriction 
of chemical substances). 

—  Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) 

The  objective  of  the  Stockholm  Convention  is  a  global  phase  out  of  substances  that  are  persistent  in  the 
environment, are being absorbed by plants and animals, and have negative effects on human health or the 
environment. The Stockholm Convention contains a list of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) that are banned 
or restricted. 

—  POPs Regulation 

The EU POPs Regulation is implementing the Stockholm Convention by banning or restricting the use of the 
POPs substances in both chemical products and articles within the EU. The POPs Regulation is also implementing 
the POPs Protocol to the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). 

—  Rotterdam Convention - Prior Informed Consent (PIC) 

The Rotterdam Convention makes it possible for countries to in advance receive information about import and 
export of certain dangerous chemicals and pesticides that are banned or severely restricted in other countries. 
The countries can then choose to approve or reject the import in accordance with their national rules. 

—  Minamata Convention on mercury 

The Minamata Convention on mercury regulates mercury in a life cycle perspective, from primary mining to 
final disposal. It is banning or restricting mercury in different products and industrial processes as of 2020 and 
2025. The convention entered into force in 2017. The Mercury Regulation implements the parts of the Minamata 
Convention previously lacking common regulations within the EU. Regulation (EU) 2017/852 of the European 
Parliament and of the Council of 17 May 2017 on mercury, and repealing Regulation (EC) No 1102/2008 

—  Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal 

—  Convention  on  the  Ban  on  the  Import  into  Africa  and  the  Control  of  Transboundary  Movement  and 

Management of Hazardous Wastes within Africa (Bamako Convention) 

—  Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP Convention) 

—  Convention on the Prevention of Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter (London Convention) 

—  International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Co-Operation (OPRC Convention) 

—  Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer 

—  Kunming-Montreal  Global  Biodiversity  Framework 

(https://www.cbd.int/article/cop15-final-text-

kunming-montreal-gbf-221222) Document CBD/COP/15/L25: 

TARGET 7: Reduce pollution risks and the negative impact of pollution from all sources, by2030, to levels that 
are not harmful to biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services, considering cumulative effects, including: 
reducing  excess  nutrients lost  to  the  environment  by  at  least  half  including  through  more  efficient  nutrient 
cycling  and  use;  reducing  the  overall  risk  from  pesticides  and  highly  hazardous  chemicals  by  at  least  half 
including  through  integrated  pest  management,  based  on  science,  taking  into  account  food  security  and 
livelihoods; and also preventing, reducing, and working towards eliminating plastic pollution”. 

10.2  Main policies 

10.2.1  Council Regulation 315/93/EEC 

It sets out the basic principles of EU legislation on contaminants in food. 

34 

 
 
Food containing a contaminant to an amount unacceptable from the public health viewpoint and in particular 
at a toxicological level, shall not be placed on the market; 

Contaminant levels shall be kept as low as can reasonably be achieved following recommended good working 
practices; 

Maximum levels must be set for certain contaminants in order to protect public health; 

10.2.2  Commission Regulation (EC) No 1881/2006 

Maximum levels in certain foods are set for the following contaminants: 

—  nitrate 

—  mycotoxins (aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, patulin, deoxynivalenol, zearalenone, fumonisins and citrinine) 

—  metals (lead, cadmium, mercury, inorganic tin, arsenic) 

—  3-MCPD 

—  dioxins 

—  dioxin-like PCBs 

—  non dioxin-like PCBs 

—  Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH) (benzo(a)pyrene) and sum of 4 PAHs) 

—  melamine and  

—  erucic acid. 

10.2.3  Farm to Fork Strategy COM(2020) 

A  sustainable  food  system  that  ensures  sufficient  and  varied  supply  of  safe,  nutritious,  affordable  and 
sustainable food to people at all times 

10.2.4  Zero Pollution Action Plan COM(2021) 

Reduction of pesticides in water, soil and air and the “Mission in the area of Soil Health and Food’ 

35 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
11  Descriptor  10.  Properties  and  quantities  of  marine  litter  do  not  cause 

harm to the coastal and marine environment. 

11.1  Drivers 

11.1.1  Established socio-economic developments 

At a global scale, from 2016 to 2040, the annual rate of macro and microplastic entering aquatic systems from 
land is projected to (linearly) increase 2.6-fold (Lau et al, 2020). Causes of this increase include: 1) continued 
population growth; 2) rising per capita plastic use; 3) shifts to low-value/non-recyclable materials; and 4) the 
growing share of plastic consumption occurring in countries with low rates of collection (Lau et al., 2020; also: 
https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2020/07/23/breaking-the-plastic-wave-top-
findings) 

For D10, the identified socio-economic developments are: 

—  Population evolution: 

Europe  maximum  at  2025  then  shrinking,  Southern  Europe  already  shrinking  (Vollset  et  al.,  2020)  and 
EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/proj_19np/default/table?lang=en) 

—  Long term economic growth 

—  Behavioural changes 

Increasing awareness, social changes in behaviour and innovation leading to a more circular economy reducing 
plastic consumption (e.g. reduction or potential elimination of single-use plastics (SUP)) could lead to a reduction 
up to 60% of plastic leakage into the marine environment. 

11.1.2  Climate change 

Extreme  weather  (strong  wind,  heavy  rain,  typhoon,  floods)  associated  with  climate  change  is  expected  to 
exacerbate the spread of plastic in the natural environment (Ford et al., 2022). Same climate scenario as for 
D1 will be considered. 

11.1.3  Development in international cooperation 

—  UNEP/MAP - Regional Plan on Marine Litter Management in the Mediterranean (RPML) 

—  OSPAR Regional Action Plan: 

RAP ML 2: contributes to delivering the marine litter objectives of the North-East Atlantic Environment Strategy 
2030 (Actions to reduce Land and sea-based litter leakages) 

—  HELCOM marine litter action plan 

—  Black Sea  

—  Litter Regional Action Plan 

36 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
—  International  Maritime  Organization  (IMO)  action  plan  (meant  to  address  marine  plastic  litter  from 

ships) – MARPOL V 

—  The Sustainable Development Goal 14: By 2025, prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of 
all kinds, in particular from land-based activities, including marine debris and nutrient pollution 

—  UNEA-5 “Strengthening Actions for Nature to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals” – launched 

the Global Plastic Pollution Treaty  

—  Global Partnership on Marine Litter (GPML) 
—  UN Oceans and the Law of the Sea (e.g. A/74/19) 
—  Basel  Convention:  on  the  Control  of  Transboundary  Movements  of  Hazardous  Wastes  and  Their 

Disposal 

—  Arctic strategic plan (AMSP) 
—  Antarctic Treaty 

—  Kunming-Montreal  Global  Biodiversity  Framework 

(https://www.cbd.int/article/cop15-final-text-

kunming-montreal-gbf-221222) Document CBD/COP/15/L25: 

TARGET 7: Reduce pollution risks and the negative impact of pollution from all sources, by2030, to levels that 
are not harmful to biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services, considering cumulative effects, including: 
reducing  excess  nutrients lost  to  the  environment  by  at  least  half  including  through  more  efficient  nutrient 
cycling  and  use;  reducing  the  overall  risk  from  pesticides  and  highly  hazardous  chemicals  by  at  least  half 
including  through  integrated  pest  management,  based  on  science,  taking  into  account  food  security  and 
livelihoods; and also preventing, reducing, and working towards eliminating plastic pollution”. 

11.2  Main policies 

11.2.1  Regulation (EU) 2021/1139 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 7 July 
2021  establishing  the  European  Maritime,  Fisheries  and  Aquaculture  Fund  and 
amending Regulation (EU) 2017/1004  

Article 8: the contribution of the programme to the reduction of marine litter, in accordance with Directive (EU) 
2019/904 of the European Parliament and of the Council (29). It sets out the basic principles of EU legislation 
on contaminants in food. 

11.2.2  Regulation (EU) 2021/783 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 April 
2021 establishing a Programme for the Environment and Climate Action (LIFE), and 
repealing Regulation (EU) No 1293/2013  

The  LIFE  Programme  should  support  the  following:  (…)  the  promotion  of  clean  and  healthy  seas;  the 
implementation  of  the  communication  of  the  Commission  of  16  January  2018  on  a  European  Strategy  for 
Plastics in a Circular Economy, addressing in particular the problem of lost fishing gear and marine litter“. 

11.2.3  Directive (EU) 2019/904 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 5 June 
2019 on the reduction of the impact of certain plastic products on the environment 
(SUP directive) 

Marine litter is transboundary in nature and is recognised as a growing global problem. Reducing marine litter 
is  a  key  action  for  the  achievement  of  UN  Sustainable  Development  Goal  14  which  calls  to  conserve  and 
sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development. The Union must play its 
part in preventing and tackling marine litter and aim to be a standard setter for the world. In that context, the 
Union is working with partners in many international fora such as G20, G7 and the UN to promote concerted 
action and this Directive is part of the Union’s efforts in that regard. In order for those efforts to be effective, 
it  is  also  important  that  exports  of  plastic  waste  from  the  Union  do  not  result  in  increased  marine  litter 
elsewhere. 

37 

 
 
 
The goal of the Single-Use Plastics (SUP) Directive is to prevent and reduce the impact on the environment of 
certain plastic products and to promote a transition to a circular economy. In particular, the Directive aims to 
tackle marine littering and plastic waste through a harmonised legislative framework across the EU 

The directive sets a collection target of 90% recycling for SUP plastic bottles by 2029 (with an interim target 
of 77% by 2025) 

11.2.4   Directive (EU) 2019/883 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 April 
2019 on port reception facilities for the delivery of waste from ships, amending 
Directive 2010/65/EU and repealing Directive 2000/59/EC 

Article 1: This Directive aims to protect the marine environment against the negative effects from discharges 
of waste from ships using ports located in the Union, while ensuring the smooth operation of maritime traffic, 
by improving the availability and use of adequate port reception facilities and the delivery of waste to those 
facilities. 

11.2.5  Directive (EU) 2018/851 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 May 

2018 amending Directive 2008/98/EC on waste  

Article  9:  (…)  (k)  identify  products  that  are  the  main  sources  of  littering,  notably  in  natural  and  marine 
environments, and take appropriate measures to prevent and reduce litter from such products (…)  (l) aim to 
halt the generation of marine litter as a contribution towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 
to prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of all kinds. 

11.2.6  Zero Pollution Action Plan  

Under EU law, Green Deal ambitions and in synergy with other initiatives, by 2030 the EU should reduce: (…) by 
50% plastic litter at sea and by 30% microplastics released into the environment; 

11.2.7  A European Strategy for Plastics in a Circular Economy 

To reduce discharges of waste by ships, the Commission is presenting together with this strategy a legislative 
proposal  on  port  reception  facilities.  This  presents  measures  to  ensure  that  waste  generated  on  ships  or 
gathered at sea is delivered on land and adequately managed. Building on this, the Commission will also develop 
targeted measures for reducing the loss or abandonment of fishing gear at sea (…) The Commission will also 
further study the contribution of aquaculture to marine litter and examine a range of measures to minimise 
plastic loss from aquaculture. Finally, it will continue its work to improve understanding and measurement of 
marine litter, an essential but often neglected way to support effective prevention and recovery measures 

Initiatives  for  microplastics  (under  REACH  for  intentional  and  under  Circular  Economy  for  unintententional 
microplastics) 

38 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
12  Descriptor 11. Introduction of energy, including underwater noise, is at 

levels that do not adversely affect the marine environment. 

12.1  Drivers 

12.1.1  Established socio-economic developments 

For D10, the identified socio-economic developments are: 

—  Population evolution: 

Europe  maximum  at  2025  then  shrinking,  Southern  Europe  already  shrinking  (Vollset  et  al.,  2020)  and 
EUROSTAT (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/proj_19np/default/table?lang=en) 

—  Long term economic growth 

—  Behavioural changes 

Increasing awareness, social changes in behaviour and innovation leading to a more circular economy reducing 
plastic consumption (e.g. preferring paper) could lead to a reduction up to one-sixth of   plastic leakage into the 
marine environment. 

12.1.2  Climate change 

The  reduction  of  shipping/traffic  has  a  direct  impact  on  the  reduction  of  CO2  emissions/ocean 
warming/acidification with consequences on species distribution and in few instances also abundances. Same 
climate scenario as for D1 will be considered. 

12.1.3  Development in international cooperation 

—  International Maritime organization conventions (IMO) 

In  2014,  IMO's  Marine  Environment  Protection  Committee  (MEPC)  approved  a  series  of  guidelines  focusing 
mainly  on  propellers,  hull  form,  on-board  machinery,  and  various  operational  and  maintenance 
recommendations such as hull cleaning but also on speed reductions or routing decisions to avoid sensitive 
marine areas including well-known habitats or migratory pathways when in transit will help to reduce adverse 
impacts on marine life. Following instruction from the MEPC in 2021, the IMO Sub-Committee on Ship Design 
and  Construction  (SDC)  in  January  2023  agreed  the  revised  guidelines,  for  submission  to  the  Marine 
Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 80) in July 2023.   

—  Regional Sea conventions: OSPAR, HELCOM, Barcelona Convention and Bucharest Convention 

12.2  Main policies 

39 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
12.2.1  Zero Pollution Action Plan COM(2021)  

No  more  than  20%  of  a  given  marine  area,      can  be  exposed  to  continuous  underwater noise  over  a  year. 
Similarly, no more than 20% of a marine habitat can be exposed to impulsive noise over a given day, and no 
more than 10% over a year. These underwater noise pollution limits deliver on the Zero Pollution Action Plan 
and are the first of this kind at global level. 

12.2.2  Guidelines  by  the  IMO  (International  Maritime  Organization)  MEPC.1/Circ.833.  7 

April 2014 

No associated targets 

All  the  dynamic-baseline  policies  related  and/associated  to  other  pressure  descriptors  (e.g., 
eutrophication, litter, noise) would be considered in the specific descriptors and indirectly they will 
have an impact and evaluated in the other descriptors (mainly biodiversity descriptors). 

40 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
—  Conclusions  

This technical report compiles the main drivers and policies that will influence the 11 descriptors of the Marine 
Strategy Framework Directive in the next few decades. This mapping exercise is a pre-requisite for the definition 
of the ‘dynamic baseline’ needed for the impact assessment of the MSFD as it allows to clearly identify the 
elements to consider in a future where the MSFD is not revised.  

Drivers  concerns  socio-economic,  climatic  and  international  developments  that  will  change  the  intensity  of 
anthropogenic  pressure  onto  marine  ecosystems.  The  cross-map  of  the  relationships  between  drivers  and 
descriptors is shown in Fig. 1 and clearly show how some drivers (e.g., climate change, population evolution or 
behavioural changes) affect almost all MSFD descriptors, marking them as priority elements to consider in the 
building of the dynamic baseline scenario. 

Figure 1. Drivers and MSFD descriptors. The lines connect the policies with the descriptors they influence. The 
meaning of the acronyms are indicated in the appropriated section further down 

The number of EU policies that can influence the status and pressure of marine ecosystems is very large (over 
38) and the level of  complexity and inter-relationship with the  MSFD  descriptors is high  (Fig.  2). Not all the 
policies are equally important for the evolution of marine ecosystems status and not all of them can be properly 
assessed with the Blue2 Modelling Framework. For the building of the scenario, only provisions related with 
pressure reduction in a quantitative manner will be taken into account (due to the nature of the used models in 
the Blue2MF). 

41 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 2. EU policies and MSFD descriptors. The lines connect the policies with the descriptors they influence. 
The meaning of the acronyms are indicated in the appropriated section further down 

This mapping exercise should provide a wide overview of the complex and multiple interplays between current 
drivers and planned policies at EU level with the likely evolution of ecosystem indicators for EU marine basins. 
It should represents the main source of information for the building of the scenarios for the descriptors covered 
by the Blue2MF feeding into the Impact Assessment of the MSFD expected in the coming years. 

42 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
References  

Ford, H.V., Nia H. Jones, Andrew J. Davies, Brendan J. Godley, Jenna R. Jambeck, Imogen E. Napper, Coleen C. 
Suckling,  Gareth  J.  Williams,  Lucy  C.  Woodall,  Heather  J.  Koldewey,  The  fundamental  links  between  climate 
change and marine plastic pollution, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 806,  Part 1, 2022, 150392, 
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150392 

Lau,  W.,  et  al.,  Evaluating  scenarios  toward  zero  plastic  pollution.  Science,  369,  1455-1461  (2020).  
DOI:10.1126/science.aba9475 

Magliozzi et al 2020. Assessing invasive alien species in European catchments: Distribution and impacts. Science 
of 
138677. 
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138677 

Environment. 

Volume 

August 

2020, 

Total 

732, 

The 

25 

Moss,  R.,  et  al.,  Towards  New  Scenarios  for  Analysis  of  Emissions,  Climate  Change,  Impacts,  and  Response 
Strategies. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2008, p. 132. 

Pergl  et  al.  2020.  Applying  the  Convention  on  Biological  Diversity  Pathway  Classification  to  alien  species  in 
Europe. NeoBiota 62:333-363. https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.62.53796 

Riahi, K., et al, The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions 
implications:  An  overview,  Global  Environmental  Change,  Volume  42,  2017,  Pages  153-168, 
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 

Vandekerkhove et al. 2013. Is there a need for a more explicit accounting of invasive alien species under the 
Water  Framework  Directive?  Management  of  Biological  Invasions  (2013)  Volume  4,  Issue  1:  25–36  doi: 
http://dx.doi.org/10.3391/mbi.2013.4.1.04 

Vollset et al., Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 
to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, The Lancet, Volume 396, ISSUE 10258, 
P1285-1306, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2 

43 

 
 
 
List of abbreviations and definitions  

Drivers: 

PE 
LTEG 
IDNR 
BC 
CC 
BBNJ 
ACCOBAMS 

ASCOBANS 

CBD 
KM_GBF 
SDGs 
RSC 
IG 
GT 
ITT 
BWM  

IUCN 
FAO 
WTO 
IRBDMP 
EN 
NR 
ITST 
SAICM 

GHS 
POPs 
POPsR 
PIC 
MCM 
TMHWD 

BC 

LRTAP 
LC 
OPRC 

MPS 
RPML 
OSPAR 
HELCOM 
BLACKSEA 
IMO_PL 

IMO_NS 

Population evolution 
Long term economic growth 
Increasing demand for natural resources 
Behavioural changes 
Climate change 
Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction  
Agreement on the conservation of cetaceans of the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea and 
contiguous Atlantic area (ACCOBAMS 
Agreement on the Conservation of Small Cetaceans of the Baltic, North East Atlantic, Irish 
and North Seas (ASCOBANS)  
Convention on biological diversity (CBD)  
Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework  
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 
Regional Sea Conventions 
Increasing globalization 
Global trade is increasing 
Transport and tourism are increasing 
International Convention on the Control and Management of Ships’ Ballast Water and 
Sediments (BWM Convention) 
International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List of Threatened Species: 
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation 
WTO agreement on fisheries subsidies 
International River Basin Districts Management Plans 
Energy 
Natural Resources  
Increasing maritime transport, shipping, and tourism 
The  global  chemicals  strategy  –  SAICM  (Strategic  Approach  to  International  Chemicals 
Management) 
Globally harmonized system of classification and labelling of chemicals (GHS) 
Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) 
POPs Regulation 
Rotterdam Convention - Prior Informed Consent (PIC) 
Minamata Convention on mercury 
Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their 
Disposal 
Convention on the Ban on the Import into Africa and the Control of Transboundary Movement 
and Management of Hazardous Wastes within Africa (Bamako Convention) 
Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP Convention) 
Convention on the Prevention of Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter (London Convention) 
International  Convention  on  Oil  Pollution  Preparedness,  Response  and  Co-Operation  (OPRC 
Convention) 
Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer 
Regional Plan on Marine Litter Management in the Mediterranean (RPML) 
OSPAR Regional Action Plan: 
HELCOM marine litter action plan 
Black Sea Marine Litter Regional Action Plan 
International Maritime Organization (IMO) action plan (meant to address marine plastic litter 
from ships). 
International Maritime organization conventions (IMO) 

44 

 
Policies: 

HD 

BD 

BS 

NRL 

EFAP 

ISR 

ASAR 

IOD 

GMOD 

PPPD 

WFD 

CFP 

IMP 

ND 

UWWTD 

SWDD 

IED 

NEAPD 

BWD 

CAP 

ZPAP 

GUAP 

EPAD 

EITD 

PVRD 

QSD 

POPR 

REACHR 

CSS 

CR315 

CR1881 

F2FS 

Habitat Directive 

Bird Directive 

Biodiversity Strategy 

Nature Restoration Law 

Action plan: Protecting and restoring marine ecosystems for sustainable and resilient fisheries 

Regulation (EU) No 1143/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 22 October 
2014 on the prevention and management of the introduction and spread of invasive alien 
species) 
Council regulation (EC) No 708/2007 of 11 June 2007 concerning use of alien and locally 
absent species in aquaculture 
Council Directive 2000/29/EC of 8 May 2000 on protective measures against the introduction 
into the Community of organisms harmful to plants or plant products and against their spread 
within the Community 
Directive 2001/18/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 12 March 2001 on the 
deliberate release into the environment of genetically modified organisms and repealing 
Council Directive 90/220/EEC 
Regulation (EC) No 1107/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 October 
2009 concerning the placing of plant protection products on the market and repealing Council 
Directives 79/117/EEC and 91/414/EEC 
Water Framework Directive 

Common Fisheries Policy 

Integrated Maritime Policy 

Nitrates Directive  

Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive 

Surface Water for Drinking Directive 

Industrial Emissions Directive 

National Emission of Certain Atmospheric Pollutants Directive 

Bathing Water Directive 

Common Agricultural policy 

Zero Pollution Action Plan 

Decision (EU) 2022/591 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 6 April 2022 on a 
General Union Environment Action Programme to 2030 
Directive (EU) 2015/2193, the limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the air from 
medium combustion plants 
The Strategic Innovation Agenda of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) 
2021-2027: Boosting the Innovation Talent and Capacity of Europe and repealing Decision No 
1312/2013/EU 
Directive 2009/126/EC, Stage II petrol vapour recovery during refuelling of motor vehicles at 
service stations. 
Directive 2008/105/EC setting environmental quality standards in the field of water policies 

Regulation (EU) 2019/1021 implements the EU’s international commitments under the 
Stockholm Convention on persistent organic pollutants (chemical substances) 
REACH Regulation 

Chemicals strategy for sustainability 

Council Regulation 315/93/EEC on Community procedures for contaminants in food 

Commission Regulation No 1881/2006 on setting maximum levels for certain contaminants in 
foodstuffs 
Farm to Fork Strategy 

45 

 
MFAFR 

LIFER 

SUPD 

WSPD 

WD 

PS 

AMAP 

IMO 

Regulation (EU) 2021/1139 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 7 July 2021 
establishing the European Maritime, Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund and amending Regulation 
(EU) 2017/1004 
Regulation (EU) 2021/783 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 April 2021 
establishing a Programme for the Environment and Climate Action (LIFE), and repealing 
Regulation (EU) No 1293/2013 
Directive (EU) 2019/904 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 5 June 2019 on the 
reduction of the impact of certain plastic products on the environment 
Directive (EU) 2019/883 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 April 2019 on 
port reception facilities for the delivery of waste from ships, 
Directive (EU) 2018/851 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 May 2018 
amending Directive 2008/98/EC on waste 
A European Strategy for Plastics in a Circular Economy 

A new approach to the Atlantic maritime strategy – Atlantic action plan 2.0 

Guidelines by the IMO (International Maritime Organization) 

46 

 
 
 
 
 
 
List of figures  

Figure 1. Drivers and MSFD descriptors ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 50 

Figure 2. Policies and MSFD descriptors ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………  51 

47 

 
 
 
GETTING IN TOUCH WITH THE EU 
GETTING IN TOUCH WITH THE EU 
In person 
In person 
All over the European Union there are hundreds of Europe Direct centres. You can find the address of the centre nearest you online 
All over the European Union there are hundreds of Europe Direct centres. You can find the address of the centre nearest you online 
(european-union.europa.eu/contact-eu/meet-us_en). 
(european-union.europa.eu/contact-eu/meet-us_en). 
On the phone or in writing 
On the phone or in writing 
Europe Direct is a service that answers your questions about the European Union. You can contact this service: 
Europe Direct is a service that answers your questions about the European Union. You can contact this service: 
— by freephone: 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (certain operators may charge for these calls), 
— by freephone: 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (certain operators may charge for these calls), 
— at the following standard number: +32 22999696, 
— at the following standard number: +32 22999696, 
— via the following form: european-union.europa.eu/contact-eu/write-us_en. 
— via the following form: european-union.europa.eu/contact-eu/write-us_en. 

FINDING INFORMATION ABOUT THE EU 
FINDING INFORMATION ABOUT THE EU 
Online 
Online 
Information  about  the  European  Union  in  all  the  official  languages  of  the  EU  is  available  on  the  Europa  website  (european-
Information  about  the  European  Union  in  all  the  official  languages  of  the  EU  is  available  on  the  Europa  website  (european-
union.europa.eu). 
union.europa.eu). 
EU publications 
EU publications 
You  can  view  or  order  EU  publications  at  op.europa.eu/en/publications.  Multiple  copies  of  free  publications  can  be  obtained  by 
You  can  view  or  order  EU  publications  at  op.europa.eu/en/publications.  Multiple  copies  of  free  publications  can  be  obtained  by 
contacting Europe Direct or your local documentation centre (european-union.europa.eu/contact-eu/meet-us_en). 
contacting Europe Direct or your local documentation centre (european-union.europa.eu/contact-eu/meet-us_en). 
EU law and related documents 
EU law and related documents 
For access to legal information from the EU, including all EU law since 1951 in all the official language versions, go to EUR-Lex (eur-
For access to legal information from the EU, including all EU law since 1951 in all the official language versions, go to EUR-Lex (eur-
lex.europa.eu). 
lex.europa.eu). 
Open data from the EU 
Open data from the EU 
The portal data.europa.eu provides access to open datasets from the EU institutions, bodies and agencies. These can be downloaded 
The portal data.europa.eu provides access to open datasets from the EU institutions, bodies and agencies. These can be downloaded 
and reused for free, for both commercial and non-commercial purposes. The portal also provides access to a wealth of datasets 
and reused for free, for both commercial and non-commercial purposes. The portal also provides access to a wealth of datasets 
from European countries. 
from European countries. 

The portal data.europa.eu provides access to open datasets from the EU institutions, bodies and agencies. These can be downloaded 
and reused for free, for both commercial and non-commercial purposes. The portal also provides access to a wealth of datasets 
from European countries.