Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2023. Summer 2023.
Date: 2023-08-08
Institutions: Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development
Subjects: EU Member State, EU agricultural market, Russo-Ukrainian issue, agricultural economics, agricultural production, economic development, economic forecasting, economic intelligence, farm income, macroeconomics

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK 
for EU agricultural markets 
in 2023 

0 

SUMMER 2023 

Edition N°36 

Agriculture 
Agriculture 
Agriculture 
Agriculture 

and Rural 
and Rural 
and Rural 
and Rural 

Development 
Development 
Development 
Development 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Manuscript completed in July 2023 

© European Union, 2023 

1 

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December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). 

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PDF 

ISSN  2600-0873   KF-AR-23-002-EN-N 

While all efforts are made to provide sound market and income projections, uncertainties remain.  

The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of the European Commission. 

Contact: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, Analysis and Outlook Unit  

Email: agri-outlook@ec.europa.eu 

https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/data-and-analysis/markets/outlook/short-term_en 

Please cite this publication as: EC (2023), Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets, Summer 2023. 
European Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural Development, Brussels. 

Agriculture 

and Rural 

Development 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
C O N T E N T 

HIGHLIGHTS 

HIGHLIGHTS PER SECTOR 

MARKET FUNDAMENTALS  

Macroeconomic outlook 

Supply 

Demand 

ARABLE AND SPECIALISED CROPS 

Cereals and Oilseeds 

Sugar and Biofuels 

Olive Oil and Wine 

Peaches & Nectarines 

Tomatoes 

ANIMAL PRODUCTS 

Milk 

Dairy products 

Beef/Veal and Pigmeat 

Poultry and Sheep/goat meat 

METHODOLOGY 

2 

3 

4 

6 

7 

9 

12 

14 

15 

16 

17 

18 

19 

20 

21 

22 

23 

24 

25 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS 

This short-term market outlook shows that EU farmers’ resilience continues 

to  be  challenged,  with  lower  commodity  prices  and  input  costs  remaining 

above  the 

long-term  average.  In  addition,  EU  countries  experienced 

contrasting and difficult weather events in spring, from droughts, rain deficit 

to  excessive rainfall,  resulting  in  delayed  flowering,  late  sowings,  increased 

risk of pest or reduced availability of water up to complete crop destruction 

in the case of the most severe events. This is due to have negative impacts 

on  the  total  EU  crop  production,  especially  through  reduced  yields  and 

quality 

for  several  agricultural  commodities.  Besides  crops, 

these 

developments could also reduce regional availability and quality of forage.    

However, there have been some early signs of positive market prospects, as 

growth  of  some  input  costs  has  slowed  down  or  even  declined.  Energy 

inflation  is  contained  while  natural  gas  prices  have  dropped  to  pre-2022 

levels, albeit remaining above pre-COVID levels. This contributes to reduced 

pressure on the EU fertiliser market, although uncertainties remain. 

EU food inflation showed first signs of stabilisation since January 2021 but 

remains  high  and  above  the  general  inflation  level.  In  some  EU  countries, 

food  prices  started  to  decline  on  a  monthly  basis.  Nevertheless,  a  possible 

decrease of retail food prices to levels comparable to the beginning of 2021 

3 

has  not  yet  come.  Other  costs  of  living  stay  high  as  well,  so  household 

budgets remain constrained and impact consumer choices on food purchase. 

The EU macroeconomic forecast remains substantially unchanged compared 

to the previous, Spring 2023 outlook, with a marginal downward revision of 

GDP growth due to the tightening of financial conditions to reduce inflation 

in  the  Euro  area.  The  EUR  to  USD  exchange  rate  stays  at  parity  level  and 

forecasts do not point to major fluctuations. Stability is expected to support 

EU exports whose competitiveness is gradually recovering although prices of 

EU commodities remain generally high. In some cases (e.g. sugar, meats), EU 

producer prices continued growing which is weighing on EU competitiveness 

and making imports more attractive. 

Measures  facilitating 

trade  with  Ukraine  continued,  but 

temporary 

safeguards  were  adopted  to  alleviate  pressure  observed  in  frontline  EU 

countries.  Traded  volumes  of  grains  showed  a  decline  consistent  with  the 

usual  pattern  at  this  time  of  the  marketing  year,  while  such  trend  has  not 

been  observed  in  the  case  of  animal  products  and  sugar.  In  2023  and 

beyond,  Ukraine’s  crop  production  remains  uncertain,  but  likely  leading  to 

lower  export  potential,  due  to  reported  issues  with  land  and  labour 

availability,  war  damages  of  physical  assets  and  availability  and 

affordability of fertiliser and other inputs. 

© Serghei V_AdobeStock 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 HIGHLIGHTS PER SECTOR

CEREALS and OILSEEDS 

CEREALS PRODUCTION 

CEREALS/OILSEEDS TRADE 

Compared  to  the  Spring  2023  outlook,  yield  projections 
have  been  reduced  following  contrasting  spring  weather 
events.  Nevertheless,  yields  in  2023/24  should  be  higher 
than in the last marketing year, with the exception of barley. 
Overall, 2023/24 EU cereal production could increase by 5% 
year-on-year. 

OILSEEDS PRODUCTION 

2023/24  EU  oilseed  production  could  also  grow,  mainly 
driven  by  possible  increases  of  summer  crops  (soya  beans 
and  sunflower).  This  is  thanks  to  higher  yields  and 
increasing areas. 

trade  flows  are  early 

to  predict  with 
2023/24 
confidence.  However,  considering  the  expected  increase 
in domestic production of both cereals and oilseeds, and 
in-progress  improvement  of  logistics  facilitating  transit 
of Ukrainian grains to its traditional markets outside the 
EU, EU imports are likely to decline.  

At  the  same  time,  EU  exports  of  cereals  could  further 
grow, and remain stable in the case of oilseeds. 

SUGAR and BIOFUELS 

SUGAR 

BIOFUELS 

Production  estimate  for  2022/23  season  has  been  slightly 
revised  downward  compared  to  the  Spring  2023  outlook 
due  to  reported  declines  in  one  producing  country.  This, 
combined  with  high  EU  prices  (which  stabilised  in  Q1)  is 
contributing to higher than expected EU imports. 

Total  EU  consumption  remains  unchanged,  and  so  resilient 
to  high  prices,  also  supported  by  strong  sugar  exports  in 
processed products. 

First  production  projection  for  2023/24 
indicates  an 
increase  in  production,  despite  delayed  start  of  the  beet 
sowing campaign. 

Demand  for  both  biodiesel  and  bioethanol  are  forecast 
to remain little changed, as blending rates are expected 
to be relatively stable. 

More  residues  and  waste  are  expected  to  be  shifted  to 
biofuel  production  (in  line  with  increasing  demand  for 
advanced  biofuels),  as  well  as  more  rapeseed  to 
biodiesel thanks to a higher availability. 

4 

OLIVE OIL and WINE 

OLIVE OIL 

WINE 

EU  olive  oil  production  estimate  for  2022/23  season  has 
been  revised  slightly  further  down  (almost  -40%  year-on-
year).  The  reduced  availability  keeps  prices  high.  This  is  in 
particular  impacting  negatively  consumption  in  main  EU 
producing countries which was further revised down. 

In  addition,  EU  exports  could  be  slightly  higher  than 
originally  anticipated,  as  some  operators  might  be  able  to 
replace a share of EU consumption by exports to high-value 
markets.  

The  prospects  of  future  harvest  remain  uncertain  at  this 
stage  but  the  drought  in  the  Iberian  peninsula  is  likely  to 
hamper production. 

Earlier  estimates  of  2022/23  EU  vinified  production 
have  been  slightly  revised  upwards  and  is  expected  to 
increase  to  159  million  hl  (+6  million  hl  year-on-year). 
At  the  same  time,  accumulation  of  stocks  accelerated 
for  certain types of wines.  Demand remains challenged 
as inflationary pressure eroded the purchasing power of 
consumers.  As  a  result,  wine  sales  are  decreasing  both 
on the domestic market and key export markets.  

To  address 
imbalances  affecting  certain  wines, 
extraordinary  measures  (crisis  distillation  and  wider 
flexibilities  for  green  harvest)  have  been  adopted,  the 
impacts  of  which  are  to  be  fully  seen  next  marketing 
year. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
FRUIT and VEGETABLES 

TOMATOES 

PEACHES AND NECTARINES 

2023  total  EU  production  of  tomatoes  is  expected  to 
increase  mainly  thanks  to  an  increase  of  tomatoes  for 
processing  while  EU  production  for  fresh  consumption 
should remain stable.  

2023  EU  production  of  peaches  and  nectarines  is 
suffering  from  adverse  weather  conditions.  Overall,  EU 
production  of  peaches  and  nectarines  is  expected  to 
decline by 9%. 

Higher producer prices can partially offset higher production 
costs,  while  retail  prices  could  stay  high.  These  changes 
could  lead  to  higher  domestic  use  of  processed  tomatoes 
while  EU  consumption  of  fresh  tomatoes  could  remain 
stable. 

Higher  retail  prices,  and  lower  availability  of  fresh 
peaches  and  nectarines  are  likely  to  lead  to  lower 
consumption while higher price could also lead to lower 
consumption  of  processed  peaches  and  nectarines, 
despite stable availability. 

APPLES AND ORANGES 

In both cases, spring production estimates were updated 
with  the  latest  Eurostat  figures,  while  trade  estimates 
took into account latest known figures. 

MILK and DAIRY 

MILK PRODUCTION 

DAIRY PRODUCTS 

2023  EU  milk  production  estimate  (-0.2%)  has  not  been 
revised  despite  positive  developments  over  the  spring 
(+0.8% in Jan-Apr). The expectations are that slaughterings 
which  were  expected  to  accelerate  over  last  winter  and 
spring will only be delayed, leading to a 1% decline in dairy 
herd in 2023. Also, yield growth estimate was sustained at 
this  stage,  with  possible  revision  following  weather 
developments over the summer. 

from 

consumers  opting 

EU use and consumption of dairy products is constrained 
by  processing  costs  (especially  for  milk  powders)  while 
other  dairy  products  (e.g.  butter,  cheese,  FDP)  continue 
cheaper 
suffering 
alternatives.  This  could  lead  to  a  limited  growth  for 
cheese and butter, and 0.7% decline for FDP. EU exports 
have  been  revised  up  for  butter  and  SMP  (both  +2pp,) 
while  lower  recovery  rates  are  expected  for  cheese, 
whey (both -1pp), and fresh dairy products (-5pp). This is 
in line with their slightly lower production as more milk 
could be channelled to butter and SMP, while a reduction 
of WMP production could be slightly stronger. 

for 

5 

MEAT PRODUCTS 

BEEF/VEAL 

POULTRY 

2023  gross  indigenous  production  estimate  has  been 
revised down (-0.2pp to -1.8%), while live exports increase 
due to opening of the Turkish market. Nevertheless, net EU 
beef meat production was reduced further down compared 
to the Spring 2023 outlook (-0.4pp to -2%). 

The  EU  has  been  facing  more  competition  in  high-value 
markets which leads to a decline in EU exports. As a result 
of  changing  exports,  EU  consumption  has  been  slightly 
revised up but still shows a strong decrease in 2023. 

PIGMEAT 

So far, low numbers of slaughtered pigs on the EU market 
continue  supporting  high  pig  prices  and  decline 
in 
production while EU demand stays high. EU exports to China 
are  expected  go  further  down  and  the  EU  continues  losing 
market  share  to  the  US,  and  Brazil  (among  others)  due  to 
high  prices.  Overall,  EU  exports  have  been  revised 
downwards to 12% (-3% estimated previously).  

Despite a revised production (-0.4pp to -5.5%), and because 
of  lower  exports,  EU  domestic  use  drop  could  be  slightly 
higher than expected.  

Thanks  to  a  quicker  recovery  of  the  EU  poultry  sector, 
and  a  lower  prevalence  of  HPAI,  EU  poultry  meat 
production  estimate  has  been  revised  up  (+1.3pp  to 
+2.4%). 

The  drop  in  EU  exports  could  be  slightly  lower  than 
expected  while  imports  continue  increasing.  As  a  result, 
2023 EU poultry consumption could be even higher than 
estimated earlier this year. 

SHEEP & GOAT MEAT 

The  balance  sheet  has  been  almost  unchanged 
compared  to  the  Spring  2023  outlook.  The  only 
difference  are  slightly  higher  exports  of  live  animals, 
and higher meat imports (mainly from New Zealand and 
the  UK).  As  a  result,  EU  consumption  was  marginally 
revised up. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
2
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© metelevan_AdobeStock 

6 

KEY 
MESSAGES  

+0.9%  
expected Euro area real GDP growth 
in 2023 in the ECB baseline 

+5.3% 
expected Euro area inflation in 
2023 in the ECB baseline 

+15.1% 
EU consumer prices for food in May 
2023 (year-on-year) 

MARKET FUNDAMENTALS 

HIGHLIGHTS 

Compared  to  spring  2023  macroeconomic  forecast,  no  major  changes  have  been 
introduced  in  the  summer  edition.  Energy  inflation  continued  declining  despite  efforts 
of OPEC+ countries to limit supply.  In addition, natural gas prices dropped in line with a 
seasonal trend but remain volatile as seen in the course of June 2023 when EU prices 
peaked up again. Nevertheless, the overall declining of natural gas prices compared to 
summer  2022  allowed  EU  to  gradually  increase  the  production  of  nitrogen fertilisers. 
This should continue to help easing some pressure on input costs in 2023.  

Weather developments continue challenging the future production prospects. In spring, 
they contributed to reduced growth of yields, an impact of which is still to be fully seen 
when the new season unfolds.  

EU  food  inflation  has  stabilised  since  April  2023  but  remains  still  high  and  above 
general inflation level. Monthly food inflation is still positive (+0.4% in May). Therefore, 
consumer  decisions  continue  to  be  strongly  driven  by  price  considerations,  which 
supports a switch to  retailer brands or a substitution with relatively cheaper  products 
within  the  same  category  (e.g.  meats  and  oils)  or  between  categories  (e.g.  less  fresh 
fruit and vegetables).  

Some  EU  exports  have  shown  a  recovery,  in  particular  dairy  products,  while  in  other 
cases,  for  example  meats,  exports  continue  being  challenged  due  to  low  EU  price 
competitiveness and a lower demand resulting from high inflation globally. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Euro area real GDP growth and inflation 
forecasts

MACROECONOMIC 
OUTLOOK 

  WEAKER GROWTH AND CONTINUING INFLATION IN 

2023 

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Core inflation
Energy

Food
Real GDP growth

Note: Baseline includes slightly tighter financing conditions than in March 
2023,  lower  oil  prices,  significantly  lower  wholesale  gas  and  electricity 
prices  and  an  appreciation  of  the  euro.  “Core  inflation”  refers  to  HICP 
inflation except food and energy. Source: European Central Bank. 

Oil, 
USD/barrel

 120

 100

 80

 60

 40

 20

 0

Brent crude oil and UK natural gas
quarterly price forecasts

Gas, 
USD/MMBtu
 60

 50

 40

 30

 20

 10

 0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2021

2022

2023

2024

Oil, Mar 2023 (lhs)
Gas, Mar 2023 (rhs)

Oil, June 2023 (lhs)
Gas, June 2023 (rhs)

MMBtu 
kilowatt hours.  

Note:  1
293.1
Source: S&P Global. 

is  1

million  British 

thermal  units,  approximately 

the  EU  macroeconomic  situation 

More  than  480  days  after  Russia’s  unprovoked  invasion  of 
Ukraine, 
is  almost 
unchanged compared to the Spring 2023 outlook, with the EU 
still  facing  imbalances  and  uncertainties  linked  to  the 
international environment. 

According to the latest ECB forecast, annual real GDP growth 
is expected at 0.9% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024, both revised 
by  0.1pp  due  to  the  tightening  of  financial  conditions  to 
reduce  inflation  in  the  Euro  area,  which  seems  more 
persistent than expected despite falling energy prices.  

Inflation in the Euro area is expected to reach 5.4% in 2023, 
with  food  inflation  accounting  for  39%  of  price  increases  at 
consumer  level.  Food  prices  are  not  expected  to  drive 
significantly general inflation after 2023, being mainly driven 
instead  by  “core”  inflation  (goods  and  services  other  than 
energy and food) and reaching 3% in 2024. 

B 

1 ECB projections based on information up to 23 May 2023. 

7 

  NATURAL GAS PRICES BELOW 2022 LEVELS, BUT 

MIGHT INCREASE IN WINTER 

S&P  Global  slightly  revised  downwards  its  projections  for  
Brent crude oil prices to around USD 80/bbl after the peak of 
USD  113/bbl  in  Q2  2022,  reaching  USD  87/bbl  in  Q4  2023. 
Despite 
the  attempts  of  OPEC+  countries  to  reduce 
production  and  increase  oil  prices,  according  to  the  June 
2023 OECD Economic Outlook, global GDP growth in 2023 is 
projected only to be  2.7%, one of the lowest rates observed 
since  the  global  financial  crisis,  therefore  global  demand  is 
also expected to be sluggish.  

Regarding natural gas, S&P Global June projections expected 
prices  to  return  to  pre-2022  levels  reaching  USD  8.3/MMBtu 
(around  26  EUR/mWh)  in  Q3  2023  before  rising  again  from 
Q4 2023 due to the increased winter demand. While on one 
hand  the  EU  is  well  on  track  with  the  natural  gas  storage 
target of 90% in November, with a level of 74% observed in 
mid-June, the potential closure of the Groningen gas fields in 
the Netherlands could represent a loss of a supply of natural 
gas for the EU. This, as well as price volatility illustrated by an 
unexpected surge of gas prices in June (nearly EUR 40/mWh) 
could generate possible market risks. Also, the difference and 
the transmission between wholesale and retail energy prices 
remain relevant, as retail prices can be up to three times the 
prices observed at wholesale level. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

Price transmission along the food chain 
(2015=100)

1
0
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7
0
0
2

1
1
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7
0
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2

9
0
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8
0
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9
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0
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3
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1
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2
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3
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5
1
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6
1
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9
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5
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1
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0
2

1
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2
2
0
2

1
1
M
2
2
0
2

Farmer price index

Processor price index

Consumer price index

MACROECONOMIC 
OUTLOOK 

  EU FARMER PRICE INDEX CONTINUES DECLINING 

The declining trend of EU farmer’s price index observed since 
October  2022  has  been  sustained.  In  May,  it  was  almost 
15 points below the peak. These developments are supported 
mainly  by  further  reduction  of  arable  crops  prices.  Since 
January, the price drops range from -19% in case of maize to 
-22%  for  wheat.  At  the  same  time,  also  raw  milk  price 
dropped by 16%, following its longer-term declining trend. On 
the other hand, prices of meats (in particular pork) continued 
to grow, as well as sugar (+5%).   

While  farmer  price  index  continued  declining,  processor  and 
consumer  price  indices  still  increased.  Likely  reduction  of 
arable  crops  prices  due  to  higher  availability  could  translate 
to  lower  feed  costs  in  coming  months,  but  this  has  not  
materialised  yet,  and  subsequently  to 
lower  costs  of 
production for animal products. However, the final impact will 
also  depend  on  other  inputs  as  well  as  overall  market 
situation, notably the strength of both domestic and external 
(trade)  demand.  Nevertheless,  the  continuation  of  farmer 
price index decline in 2023 is likely to bring some downward 
pressure for food prices along the chain as well. 

Source:  DG  Agriculture  and  Rural  Development,  based  on  Eurostat  and 
MS notifications. 

© metelevan_AdobeStock 

© metelevan_AdobeStock 

8 

© i-Stockr 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SUPPLY 

  SPRING WEATHER CONTRASTS IMPACT CROPS 

NEGATIVELY 

The  spring  weather  was  characterised  by  contrasting 
developments in EU regions, with overall negative impacts on 
crop  expectations.  While  the  periods  of  dry  weather 
conditions    in  most  part  of  the  Iberian  Peninsula  were 
followed by some  rainfall since  May, there was only little or 
no  benefit  as  it  came  too  late  for  spring  crops,  and  also 
summer crops continue under low irrigation quota.  

The  rainfall  deficit  has  recently  been  reported  in  Northern 
Europe, including regions in FR, PL and Scandinavia, the whole 
territories  of  BE,  NL,  DK,  DE,  and  Baltic  countries.  In  SE  and 
DK,  the  rainfall  need  becomes  urgent  both  for  winter  crops 
(flowering)  and  spring  crops  (heading).  In  other  EU  regions 
and  territories,  the  deficit  led  to  delayed  sowings  and 
affected  some  summer  crops.  Despite  the  deficit,  the 
situation in FR seems not be a concern for crop development. 

On the other hand, rainfall surplus of above twice long-term 
average  was  observed  in  many  Italian  regions,  notably  in 
Emilia-Romagna  region  where  extreme  and  devastating 
floods occurred. Rainfall surplus was also recorded in SK, HU, 
most  of  HR  and  SI.  In  the  Danube  River  valley,  cold 
temperatures  caused  delays  to  sowing,  and  an  emergence 
and early developments of summer crops. 

LOWER GROWTH OF 2023/24 EU CEREAL 
PRODUCTION THAN EXPECTED  

9 

Due to wet conditions in many areas, pest pressure is likely to 
increase. This, combined with dry conditions in other regions, 
could cumulatively translate into a lower yields growth in the 
EU than would have been expected in the spring. While durum 
wheat  and  spring  barley  yields  are  expected  to  be  below      
5-year average (-3% and -11% respectively), soft wheat and 
maize  yields  could  be  2%  higher,  with  some  improvements 
expected  also  in  oilseeds.  As  a  result,  2023/24  EU  oilseed 
production  would  be  comparable  to  earlier  estimates  while 
cereals  production  could  be  10  million  t  below  the  previous 
estimate, a half of which could be attributed to a lower barley 
production.  Nevertheless,  EU  cereals  production  could  still 
grow by 5% compared to 2022 conditional on good summer 
weather.  

In  addition  to  reduced  yields  due  to  weather  events,  the 
quality of grains, fruit, and vegetables could be of a concern,  
as  already  observed  last  year.  Lower  yields  of  olives  and 
reduced  oil  content  led  to  low  2022/23  olive  oil  production 
(almost  -40%  compared  to  last  marketing  year).  Similarly, 
reduced  yields  and  sugar  content  (on  top  of  declining  area) 
were  behind  12%  decline  in  white  sugar  production  in 
2022/23. With an expected increase of yields, it could be 6% 
higher in 2023/24. Adversely affected production of peaches 
and  nectarines  in  2023  is  likely  to  translate  into  a  slightly 
lower  availability  for  fresh  consumption,  with  lower  quality 
fruit  being  channelled  to  processing  which  could  instead 
increase. 

Source

: JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 31 No 6. 

Annual* EU production change of selected 
arable and specialised crops 

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

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d
e
e
s

r
e
w
o
l
f
n
u
S

e
n
W

i

l
i

o

e
v
i
l

O

t
e
e
b

r
a
g
u
S

Cereals

Oilseeds

22/21

23f/22

s
e
o
t
a
m
o
t

h
s
e
r
F

…
d
n
a

s
e
h
c
a
e
p

h
s
e
r
F

s
e
o
t
a
m
o
t

d
e
s
s
e
c
o
r
P

…
d
n
a

s
e
h
c
a
e
p

d
e
s
s
e
c
o
r
P

Fruit and
vegetables

*Marketing years are used.  
Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat and MS 
notifications. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

-3%

-4%

-5%

-6%

Annual* EU production change of animal 
products

k
l
i

M

t
a
e
m

f
e
e
B

t
a
e
m
g
P

i

y
r
t
l
u
o
P

22/21

23e/22

t
a
e
m
t
a
o
g

d
n
a

p
e
e
h
S

Source:  DG  Agriculture  and  Rural  Development,  based  on  Eurostat  and 
MS notifications. 

EU imports of selected fertilisers by semester 
(million t)

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Phosphates and phosphatic fertilisers
Potassic fertilisers
Ammonia and Nitrogenous fertilisers

Note: Only Jan-Apr data are available in 2023 
Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

SUPPLY 

  POULTRY PRODUCTION TO RECOVER 

Besides mixed weather impacts on feeding crops, grasslands 
have also experienced opposing growing conditions over past 
months. While central and northern EU regions suffered from 
low  levels  of  precipitation  since  mid-May,  heavy  rainfall  and 
flooding  negatively  affected  grasslands  in  several  southern 
EU regions. Generally, more rainfall is needed to secure feed 
and fodder availability in upcoming months and further ease 
up feed costs. 

Nevertheless,  EU  milk  production  continued  growing  in  Q1, 
supporting  a  downward  pressure  on  milk  prices.  In  coming 
months, dairy farmers are likely to reflect on these changes, 
and so this could lead to accelerated slaughterings. The milk 
yield  growth  could  be  at  a  comparable  level  of  last  year 
(0.7%). As a result, EU milk production is likely to be reduced 
by 0.2%. In the  case of  meat production, an additional layer 
of  concern  relates  to  animal  diseases.  However,  due  to  a 
lower  prevalence  of  HPAI  in  EU  poultry  production,  and  its 
quick  recovery  potential  (+3.2%  in  Q1),  the  production  was 
revised  further  up  (+2.4%  year-on-year).  This  contrasts  with 
developments  in  other  meat  types  which  continue  suffering 
from  declining  reproductive  herds,  still  high  producing  costs 
(mainly feed) and lower domestic demand as well as exports 
due to high EU prices. 

FERTILISER PRICES DECREASED FOLLOWING HIGH 
IMPORTS 

A  very  high  level  of  imports  of  nitrogen  fertilisers  in  the 
second  semester  of  2022  and  the  first  months  of  2023 
compensated  for  a  closure  of  a  significant  part  of  the  EU 
ammonia production capacity in 2022. This was also favoured 
by  the  suspension  of  most-favoured-nation  duties  on 
ammonia and urea between December 2022 and June 2023. 
Further  declining  of  natural  gas  prices 
(see  also 
Macroeconomic outlook) allows EU domestic ammonia plants 
to gradually restart. While imports are decreasing, this should 
result  in  large  availability  of  nitrogen  products  on  the  EU 
markets. 

Although some fertilisers’ purchases of farmers for the 2023 
harvest were made at a high price, the gradual improvement 
of  prices  for  nitrogen  fertilisers  since  autumn  2022  should 
not result in generalised nitrogen under-fertilisation rates. For 
the purchases starting from this summer in view of the 2024 
harvest,  the  large  stocks  reported  and  the  still  moderate 
natural  gas  price  levels  in  recent  weeks  should  allow 
purchases at a lower price than in summer 2022.   

For  P  and  K  fertilisation  however,  the  slow  pace  of  imports 
and the lower decrease of prices than for nitrogen fertilisers, 
indicate that farmers have privileged N fertilisation to P and K 
one for the second year in a row, thus representing a point of 
attention for the next harvest.    

10 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
250

210

170

130

90

50

Quarterly indices of agricultural inputs prices  
(2015=100)

1
Q
-
5
1
0
2

3
Q
-
5
1
0
2

1
Q
-
6
1
0
2

3
Q
-
6
1
0
2

1
Q
-
7
1
0
2

3
Q
-
7
1
0
2

1
Q
-
8
1
0
2

3
Q
-
8
1
0
2

1
Q
-
9
1
0
2

3
Q
-
9
1
0
2

1
Q
-
0
2
0
2

3
Q
-
0
2
0
2

1
Q
-
1
2
0
2

3
Q
-
1
2
0
2

1
Q
-
2
2
0
2

3
Q
-
2
2
0
2

1
Q
-
3
2
0
2

Seeds and planting stock
Energy, lubricants
Fertilisers and soil improvers
Plant protection products and pesticides
Veterinary expenses
Animal feedingstuffs

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

Change in nominal minimum wages and food 
price inflation (Jan 2023/Jan 2022, %)

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

V
L

E
D

O
R

U
H

L
P

E
B

T
L

R
H

L
N

I

S

E
E

G
B

K
S

T
P

E
I

L
E

Z
C

R
F

U
L

T
M

*
Y
C

*
S
E

Nominal minimum wage

Food price inflation

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on 
https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/article/2023/minimum-
wage-hikes-struggle-to-offset-inflation  

SUPPLY 

  SLOWDOWN OF INPUT COST GROWTH 

The moves observed of inputs costs have led to a slowdown 
of growth of price indices of agricultural inputs since Q4 last 
year.  While  between  Q2  and  Q3  in  2022  energy  and 
lubricants price index grew by almost 15 points, it lowered to 
4  between  Q3  and  Q4  and  declined  by  almost  24  in  Q1  of 
2023.  In  other  cases  (plant  protection  products,  veterinary 
services),  the  growth  was  sustained,  while  the  indices  of 
fertilisers and animal feed declined in Q1 compared to last Q 
of 2022 (-35 and -2.6 respectively).  

As fertilisers represent on average around 12% of input costs 
of field crop farms, this could bring some relief. However, this 
could  be  partially  offset  by  increasing  costs  for  seeds  and 
planting stocks which still showed an increase last year. They 
correspond  to  9%  of  costs,  similar  to  crop  protection 
products.  In  case  of  the  livestock  production,  feed  costs 
represent  traditionally  the 
33%-39%  in  case  of  grazing  livestock  farms  to  56%  for 
granivores.  Therefore,  if  the  reduction  of  cereal  prices 
continues, this could help to stabilise and even improve feed 
demand  to  some  extent.  However,  despite  the  growth 
reduction  of  input  price  indices,  and  decline  in  EU  cereal 
prices,  they  still  remain  well-above  an  average.  Therefore, 
depending on their  balance with producer  prices, EU  farming 
sectors might still face challenges in coming months. 

largest  share,  ranging  from    

   HIGHER NOMINAL WAGES BUT LOWER REAL 

IMPACT IN 2023 

11 

Besides  primary  producers,  high 
input  costs  continue 
affecting all actors in the supply chain, leading to diversion of 
uses.  For  example,  the  energy  cost  to  store  certain  food 
products  in  a  cool  environment  drives  some  fresh  products 
(e.g. fruit) to processing. In other cases, the full impact of the 
energy  peak  recorded  last  year  might  have  been  offset  by 
contractual  arrangements.  In  the  case  of  tomato  growers, 
long-term 
around  70%  of  energy 
contracts and only 30% is bought on spot markets which are 
more  exposed  to  market  volatility.  This,  combined  with 
delayed  winter  plantings  due  to  higher  than  average 
temperatures  (normally  Aug-Oct,  now  Nov-Dec)  have  likely 
contributed  to  a  lower  impact  on  production.  At  the  same 
time, it created an opportunity to growers to sell the available 
energy  and 
incentivised  their  transition  towards  more 
sustainable  methods  of  energy  production  (e.g.  electric 
boilers, LED lamps). 

is  secured  through 

Among other factors, labour  cost (expressed through wages) 
also  increased.  On  the  demand  side,  this  aimed  at  reducing 
inflation  pressures,  and  so  at  supporting  spendings.  To 
protect  the  earnings  of  the  lowest-paid  employees,  most 
governments  have  boosted  minimum  wages  in  2023  to  a 
much 
last  year.  However,  despite 
increasing in nominal terms, the likely persistence of inflation 
is  to  reduce  its  real  terms  value.  In  case  of  employers,  this 
inevitably has added an additional layer to other high costs. 

larger  extent  than 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net intent of consumers towards grocery 
shopping in 2022 and 2023

Look for ways to save money
when shopping

Actively search for best
promotions on food
Switch to less expensive
foods to save money

Buy store's own food brands
instead of known brands
Focus on healthy eating and
nutrition
Buy environmentally friendly
products*

Pay a higher price to get a
healthier product

Buy organic products*

Buy high quality/premium
food products

-20% 0%

20% 40% 60%

2022

2023

Note:  Net  intent  –  share  of  consumers  who  want  to  do  more  of  activity 
minus  share  of  consumers  who  want  to  do  less  of  activity;  *  not 
investigated on in 2022. 
Source
https://www.eurocommerce.eu/app/uploads/2023/05/State-of-grocery-
2023_Low-res.pdf.  

: Eurocommerce and McKinsey report

:. 

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

EU consumer price inflation of selected food 
products (2015=100)

1
2
0
2
-
8
0

1
2
0
2
-
9
0

1
2
0
2
-
0
1

1
2
0
2
-
1
1

1
2
0
2
-
2
1

2
2
0
2
-
1
0

2
2
0
2
-
2
0

2
2
0
2
-
3
0

2
2
0
2
-
4
0

2
2
0
2
-
5
0

2
2
0
2
-
6
0

2
2
0
2
-
7
0

2
2
0
2
-
8
0

2
2
0
2
-
9
0

2
2
0
2
-
0
1

2
2
0
2
-
1
1

2
2
0
2
-
2
1

3
2
0
2
-
1
0

3
2
0
2
-
2
0

3
2
0
2
-
3
0

3
2
0
2
-
4
0

Bread and cereals
Fruit
Milk, cheese and eggs
Sugar

Food
Meat
Oils and fats
Vegetables

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

DEMAND 

FOOD INFLATION SHOWED SOME STABILISATION 

Following  the  increase  of  commodity  prices,  the  EU  food 
inflation index continued increasing until March 2023, and for 
the  first  time  since  January  2021  remained  stable  in  April 
2023. During these 26 months, it recorded an overall increase 
of  around  30  points.  Despite  a  stable  level  in  April  2023,  it 
remained  above  general  inflation  and  above  average,  which 
continues  adding  to  high  levels  of  other  living  costs,  and  so 
the  pressure  on  household  spending.  Despite  above  average 
food  inflation,  consumer  prices  of  food  monitored  on  a 
monthly  bases  dropped  already  in  few  EU  countries  in  April 
(e.g. DE, HU, PT, SE) and continued declining in May as well.  

Observed  retail  trends  show  that  price  considerations  are 
driving consumer decisions to look for money saving options, 
buy in promotions, buy less expensive food or retailer brands. 
This translates into lower volumes of products sold fresh (e.g. 
meat,  fruit  and  vegetables)  and  premium  products  (e.g. 
organic). Temporary shifts to retailer brands are likely to bring 
some  longer-term  impacts  as  these  products  are  gaining 
consumer  recognition  and  appreciation.  Certain  imperfection 
of  price  transmission  along  the  chain  is  observed,  especially 
in  relation  to  different  price  levels  of  products,  with  basic 
products  being  more  resistant  to  price  increases  as  they 
already have low margins. 

  EU CONSUMPTION PATTERNS SUSTAINED 

12 

The  stabilisation  of  food  inflation  is  mainly  due  to  reduction 
of  prices  of  oils  and  fats,  fruit  and  vegetables  and  stable 
prices of milk and dairy products. On the other hand, inflation 
indices  of  other  food  categories  (e.g.  bread  and  cereals, 
sugar, meat) keep increasing.  

These  developments  underpin  expectations  of  reduced  EU 
consumption or domestic use of several products and support 
certain  demand  shifts.  For  example,  cheaper  poultry  meat 
could  partially  replace  more  expensive  cuts  of  beef  and 
pigmeat.  However,  this  is  not  likely  to  prevent  EU  per  capita 
meat consumption from declining below 66 kg (-1% year-on-
year).  The  consumption  reduction  due  to  high  prices  is  also 
expected  for  olive  oil,  especially  in  main  producing  countries 
that  are  more  price-sensitive  (-16%).  Due  to  the  decline  in 
prices  of  vegetable  oils,  this  could  also  incentivise  some 
demand shifts away from olive oil.  

Dairy  products,  especially  milk  powders  used  in  processing, 
could continue suffering both from high processing costs and 
lower  demand  (e.g.  nutritional  products);  as  well  as  some 
traditional  consumer  products  (e.g.  yoghurts),  as  households 
might reduce their purchases, to limit possible food waste or 
favour other cheaper food products. In  case of sugar,  higher 
prices are not significantly reducing human consumption. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

Annual EU export change of selected dairy 
products and meat types 

e
s
e
e
h
C

r
e
t
t
u
B

s
t
c
u
d
o
r
p

y
r
i
a
d

h
s
e
r
F

r
e
d
w
o
p

k
l
i

m
d
e
m
m
i
k
S

s
r
e
d
w
o
p

y
e
h
W

r
e
d
w
o
p

k
l
i

l

m
e
o
h
W

f
e
e
B

t
a
e
m
g
P

i

y
r
t
l
u
o
P

t
a
e
m
t
a
o
g

d
n
a

p
e
e
h
S

Dairy products

Meats

2022/2021

2023f/2022

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

DEMAND 

INCREASING DAIRY EXPORTS WHILE MEAT AND 
SUGAR EXPORTS ARE DOWN 

EU  exports  continued  being  impacted  by  global  food  price 
inflation.  Based  on  data  between  January  and  April  2023, 
inflation higher than 5% was observed in 65% of low-income 
countries,  84%  of  lower-middle-income  countries,  and  89% 
of  upper-middle-income  countries,  with  many  experiencing 
double-digit  values.  In  addition,  also  82%  of  high-income 
countries are experiencing high food price inflation.  

However,  lower  EU  prices  of  some  agricultural  commodities 
(see  Macroeconomic  outlook)  help  EU  exports  to  grow.  For 
example,  exports  of  skimmed  milk  powder,  whey  powder  as 
well  as  butter  grew.  In  case  of  traditional  dairy  products 
(cheese,  fresh  dairy  products),  these  are  impacted  more 
strongly  by  inflation,  and  so  export  volumes  gains  are  likely 
to be lower. On the other hand, high EU meat prices prevent 
exports  from  growing.  The  highest  exports’  reduction  is 
expected  in  pigmeat  (-12%),  which  is  likely  suffering  from 
both lower demand in high-value markets, and a higher price 
competition  for  lower-value  ones,  on  top  of  the  continuing 
reduction  of  exports  to  China.  At  the  same  time,  exports  of 
remaining types of meat could decline (up to 5%), in case of 
poultry also due to some HPAI  bans in place, in  particular in 
case of non-recognition of EU regionalisation. At the moment, 
also high sugar prices are leading to lower EU sugar exports. 

EU monthly imports from Ukraine                        

  IMPORTS FROM UKRAINE SLOW DOWN 

13 

(1000 t and 1000 t of carcass weight 
equivalent)

1 800

1 600

1 400

1 200

1 000

r
e
w
o
l
f
n
u
s
/
e
z
i
a
m

/
t
a
e
h
w

t
f
o
S

 800

 600

 400

 200

 0

7
0
-
0
2
0
2

0
1
-
0
2
0
2

1
0
-
1
2
0
2

4
0
-
1
2
0
2

7
0
-
1
2
0
2

0
1
-
1
2
0
2

1
0
-
2
2
0
2

4
0
-
2
2
0
2

7
0
-
2
2
0
2

0
1
-
2
2
0
2

1
0
-
3
2
0
2

4
0
-
3
2
0
2

Maize

Sunflower

Soft wheat

Poultry meat

t
a
e
m
y
r
t
l
u
o
P

 45

 40

 35

 30

 25

 20

 15

 10

 5

 0

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

Regarding  exports  of  EU  specialised  crops,  these  continued 
being  constrained  by  lower  availability  (e.g.  olive  oil,  sugar), 
as  well  lower  demand  for  premium  products  especially  in 
consumer groups other than high-income ones (e.g. wine).  

The  facilitation  of  trade  of  Ukrainian  agricultural  products 
continued  thanks  to  both  Autonomous  Trade  Measures  and 
Black  Sea  Grain  Initiative  (BSGI).  In  case  of  the  former,  new 
preventive  measures  were  taken  to  reduce  the  pressure  on 
domestic  markets  in  the  5  frontline  EU  countries.  These 
measures  cover  the  most  sensitive  products:  wheat,  maize, 
rapeseed and sunflower seed. As a result, the transit of these 
products  is  still  ensured  under  the  preventive  measure. 
Nevertheless,  given  the  end  of  the  ongoing  marketing  year, 
traded  volumes  of  grains  from  Ukraine  have  been  reduced. 
No  similar  trend  was  observed  in  other  products  (especially 
some  animal  products).  In  the  coming  marketing  year,  the 
capacity  of  Ukraine  to  produce  remains  uncertain.  There  are 
some  indications  that  it  might  be  constrained  by  reduced 
availability  of  land  for  different  reasons  (e.g.  mined  fields), 
lower  availability  of 
lower 
affordability  of  fertilisers  and  plant  protection  products. 
Concerning  BSGI,  the  current  agreement  is  in  place  until 
17 July  2023.  As  the  decision  on  its  prolongation  is  not 
certain, future consequences are hard to assess at this stage. 

labour  force  as  well  as 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3
2
0
2
R
E
M
M
U
S

© oticki_AdobeStock 

© ValentynVolkov_iStock 

© Leonidovich_AdobeStock 

© Roxana_AdobeStock 

© kaisersosa67_iStock 

© Alexander Kolomiet_AdobeStock 

14 

KEY 
MESSAGES  

Cereals: +5% 
2023/24 production increase 
despite reduced yields growth 

Sugar: + 0.9 million t 
Sugar imports in 2022/23 

Biofuels: -5% 
2023 bioethanol production 

Tomatoes: +8.4% 
production for processing in 2023 

ARABLE AND SPECIALISED 
CROPS 

EU  cereal  and  oilseed  production  could  increase  in  2023/24,  by  5%  and  8% 
respectively.  Considering  this,  and  an  in-progress  improvement  of  logistics  facilitating 
transit  of  Ukrainian  grains  to  its  traditional  markets  outside  the  EU,  EU  imports  are 
likely to decline. At the same time, EU exports of cereals could further grow. EU sugar 
beet  production  is  likely  to  be  higher  in  2023/24,  despite  delayed  start  to  the  beet 
sowing  campaign.  This  could  translate  into  lower  imports,  and  a  slight  increase  in 
exports.  Biofuel  use  continues  benefitting  from  increasing  blending  rates,  which, 
together  with  transport  fuel  demand  support  stability  in  2023.  More  residues  and 
waste  could  be  shifted  to  biofuel  production,  as  well  as  more  rapeseed  to  biodiesel 
thank to a higher availability. 

2023/24 EU olive oil consumption and exports remain weak, driven by lower availability 
(almost  -40%)  which  leads  to  higher  prices.  In  the  case  of  wine,  ending  stocks  of 
2022/23  are  higher,  and  even  increasing  for  red  and  rosé  wines  which  causes  a 
concern for some producing regions.  

EU  production  of  peaches  and  nectarines  in  2023  suffers  from  adverse  weather 
conditions, with lower production for fresh consumption while larger quantities could be 
channelled  into  processing.  In  the  case  of  tomatoes,  production  for  processing  is 
recovering  while  production  for  fresh  consumption  remains  stable.  High  retail  prices 
continue constraining fresh products more than the processed ones. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

EU cereals production (million t)

CEREALS and 
OILSEEDS 

SLOWER RECOVERY OF EU CEREAL PRODUCTION 

Despite  the  expected  drop  in  EU  cereal  area  in  2023/24        
(-1%),   and 
to  weather 
reduced  yield  growth  due 
developments in spring, EU cereal production is due to be 5% 
higher.  

While  cereal  yield  growth  could  be  lower  than  anticipated, 
yields could still be 6% above 2022/23 levels and 2% above 
the 5-year average. Owing to higher domestic production, and  
an in-progress improvement of logistics facilitating transit of 
Ukrainian grains to its traditional markets outside the EU, EU 
imports  could  decline  by  35%  from  a  historically  high  level 
observed 
imports  are 
In  particular, 
expected  for  soft  wheat  (-57%),  maize  (-33%)  and  barley     
(-25%), while imports of durum wheat could increase (+30%). 
EU  cereals  exports  could  grow  by  about  6%,  slightly  above 
the  5-year  average,  while  exports  of  durum  wheat  could  be 
lower (-22%, given a tight expected availability). 

in  2022/23. 

lower 

With  stable  feed  use  reflecting  a  stagnating  EU  animal 
production,  total  domestic  use  of  cereals  is  not  expected  to 
change substantially in 2023/24, with the exception of a 2% 
increase  in  the  use  of  cereals  for  industrial  purposes  (e.g. 
biofuels)  recovering  from  last  season’s  lows.  Despite  higher 
carry-over  stocks  than  in  the  previous  year,  the  expected 
production  recovery  for  most  cereals,  lower  imports,  higher 
exports  and  slightly  increasing  domestic  use  could  lead  to 
marginally lower ending stocks in 2023/24 (-1%). 

EXPECTED  RECOVERY  OF  EU  SUNFLOWER  AND 
SOYA BEAN PRODUCTION IN 2023/24 

15 

In  2023/24,  EU  oilseed  production  is  expected  to  further 
increase  by  8% 
(compared  to  the  previous  year)  to 
33.6 million t,  in  particular  driven  by  higher  soya  bean  and 
sunflower  production  (around  18%  both,  mainly  owing  to 
higher  area).  Compared  to  historically  high  levels  of  imports 
in 2022/23, rapeseed and sunflower imports are expected to 
almost  return  to  pre-2022  levels  in  2023/24,  and  even 
increase for soya beans. At the same time, EU exports could 
remain relatively stable. As a result, domestic use is expected 
to  increase  only  marginally  in  2023/24  (2%),  in  particular 
driven by increasing use of soya bean and sunflower (9% and 
8% respectively). 

The  EU  production  of  oilseed  meals  is  expected  to  increase 
with  respect  2022/23  by  2.2%,  limited  by  a  decline  in 
rapeseed  meals 
(9%), 
(-5%).  Exports  might 
especially  of  soya  meals  (34%),  whereas  imports  of  oilseed 
meals  are  expected  to  decrease  slightly,  mainly  due  to 
reduced rapeseed meals (-33%). 

improve 

Regarding vegetable oils, EU production and consumption are 
not expected to change significantly in 2023/24, except for a 
further  reduction  in  the  palm  oil  use  (-9%).  On  the  contrary, 
both  EU  exports  and  imports  are  expected  to  decline  in 
2023/24,  (-8%  and  -3%  respectively).  Lower  imports  are 
driven  by  further  palm  oil  imports  reduction  (-9%),  while 
lower  exports  are  driven  by  rapeseed  and  sunflower  (-28% 
and -12% respectively). 

2021/22

2022/23e

2023/24f

Source:  DG  Agriculture  and  Rural  Development,  based  on  Eurostat,  MS 
notifications and JRC MARS data. 

EU oilseeds production (million t)

36

32

28

24

20

16

12

8

4

0

2019/20

2020/21

2021/22

2022/23e

2023/24f

Rapeseed

Sunflower

Soya beans

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat and MS 
notifications. 

 
 
 
    
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
EU sugar trade (million t)

s
t
r
o
p
x
E

4

3

2

1

0

s
t
r
o
p
m

I

-1

-2

-3

Imports (raw)
Imports (white)
Imports

Exports (raw)
Exports (white)
Exports

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

EU production and use of biofuels
(billion l)

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023f

Biodiesel production

Ethanol production

Biodiesel use

Ethanol use

Source:  DG  Agriculture  and  Rural  Development,  based  on  Eurostat 
(biodiesel) and MS notifications (ethanol). 

SUGAR  

  SUGAR  IMPORTS  SHARPLY  UP  in  2022/23  DUE  TO 

LOWER PRODUCTION AND RECORD PRICES 

2022/23  white  sugar  production  estimate  has  been  revised 
downwards to 14.6 million t  (-12.1% compared to 2021/22) 
due  to  reported  declines  in  main  producing  countries.  As  a 
result  of  this,  and  high  EU  prices  (which  stabilised  in  Q1  of 
2023), EU imports are sharply up and are expected to  reach 
2.4 million t (+60% compared to 2021/22).  

Total  EU  consumption  of  sugar  remains  resilient  to  high 
prices. It has also been supported by strong sugar exports in 
processed  products.  On  the  other  hand,  industrial  use, 
including  use  for  biofuels  production,  and  sugar  exports  are 
affected and are expected to decline. 

Despite  delayed  start  to  the  beet  sowing  campaign  due  to 
wet  weather  conditions  over  spring,  the  first  production 
forecast for 2023/24 marketing year indicates an increase in 
sugar  production  to  15.5  million  t.  Due  to  increase  in 
domestic  supply,  imports  are  expected  to  decline  to  below 
2.0  million  t,  while  exports  are  expected  to  rebound  from 
record lows. 

Ending  stocks  of  sugar,  which  are  expected  to  decline  to 
1.3  million  t  in  2022/23  (-14%  year-on-year),  could  recover 
to 1.4 million t at the end of the next season. 

   BIOFUELS 

  DEMAND FOR BIOFUELS FLAT IN 2023  

16 

Road  fuel  demand  in  2023  is  expected  to  be  little  changed 
compared  to  2022  due  to  lower  economic  activity,  fuel 
efficiency  gains  and  ongoing  electrification  of  the  transport 
fleet.  Demand  for  both  biofuels  diesel  and  bioethanol  are 
also  forecast  to  remain  little  changed,  as  blending  rates  are 
expected to be relatively stable. 

The  feedstock  for  production  of  EU  biodiesel  is  expected  to 
shift to residues and waste because of increasing demand for 
advanced  biofuels  and  to  rapeseed  due  to  good  availability. 
Due  to  sustainability  concerns,  soya  bean  oil  and  especially 
palm oil uses will continue declining, while used cooking oil is 
not expected to grow as in previous years. 

The EU bioethanol production in 2023 is expected to slightly 
decrease. Use of coarse grains and sugar beet is expected to 
decline, while more ethanol is expected to be produced from 
waste and residues. 

Imports  of  ethanol  in  2023  are  expected  to  decline  due  to 
lower cereal prices and abundant stocks of wheat and maize, 
while  imports  of  biodiesel,  despite  the  increase  in  the 
beginning of the year, are expected to remain stable. 

 
 
 
    
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
EU olive oil production, consumption, trade 
and ending stocks (1000 t)

3 000

2 500

2 000

1 500

1 000

 500

 0

Ending stocks

Production

Exports

Imports

Consumption

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat and MS 
notifications. 

OLIVE OIL 

TIGHT EU OLIVE OIL SUPPLY KEEPS PRICES UP 

EU olive oil production estimate for 2022/23 season has been 
revised  slightly  down,  to  account  for  around  40%  decline 
year-on-year.  This  reduced  availability  keeps  producer  prices 
high  and  even  further  supports  their  upward  trends.  In  mid-
July, producer prices of extra virgin olive oil ranged from EUR 
600/100  kg  in  EL  to  EUR  720/100  kg  in  IT.  Compared  to  5-
year  average,  the  price  increase  is  the  strongest  in  ES 
(+133%/+365  EUR  to  around  EUR  640/100  kg).  These  price 
the  EU  consumption, 
developments  negatively 
especially in the main EU producing countries. Therefore, it is 
likely  that  the  consumption  there  will  be  even  lower  than 
expected in the Spring 2023 outlook (-16% year-on-year). 

impact 

Despite expectations driven by a good harvest in Türkiye, and 
the  attractiveness  of  the  EU  market  due  to  high  prices,  EU 
imports are not expanding at a much faster rate compared to 
the  last  marketing  year.  Therefore,  they’re  likely  to  reach 
around 170 000 t (-30 000 t less than previously estimated). 
On  the  other  hand,  EU  exports  could  be  slightly  higher  than 
originally  anticipated  (+20 000  t),  as  some  operators  might 
be  able  to  replace  certain  portion  of  EU  consumption  by 
exports at a higher price. These developments should lead to 
relatively low ending stocks. With an uncertainty of the future 
harvest  at  this  stage,  it  is  not  possible  yet  to  forecast  any 
future price or demand developments. 

EU wine production, consumption, net trade 
and ending stocks (million hl)

200

150

100

50

0

 Human consumption

 other uses

Net trade

 Ending Stocks

 Vinified production

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat and 
MS notifications. 

   WINE 

  INCREASING STOCKS OF RED AND ROSÉ WINES  

17 

Earlier  estimates  of  2022/23  EU  vinified  production  have 
been  slightly  revised  up  and  is  expected  to  increase  to 
159 million hl (+6 million hl year-on-year). 

The  demand  for  wine  (both  domestic  and  international) 
continues  showing  signs  of  weakness.  In  the  case  of  EU 
consumption, there is a further acceleration of the long-term 
downward  trend  (annual  reduction  around  1%  on  average) 
due  to  the  erosion  of  purchasing  power  of  consumers  by 
inflation. This is especially affecting red and  rosé wines. The 
lowered  global  purchasing  power  is  impacting  EU  wine 
exports, which are likely to be 5% below a record level of the 
last season. 

As  a  result  of  above-mentioned  factors,  2022/23  ending 
stocks  stay  high  and,  for  red  and  rosé  wines,  are  even 
expected to increase if not addressed by the crisis distillation 
measures.  This  is  a  source  of  concern  in  many  EU  wine 
producing regions. 

The developments of the next season will then depend on the 
result  of  the  crisis  distillation  ongoing  in  most  affected  
regions in difficulty, the next harvest, and the demand. 

 
 
 
    
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
EU peaches and nectarines area and 
production

1 000 t

4 000

3 000

2 000

1 000

 0

2
1
0
2

3
1
0
2

4
1
0
2

5
1
0
2

6
1
0
2

7
1
0
2

8
1
0
2

9
1
0
2

0
2
0
2

1
2
0
2

2
2
0
2

 0

f
3
2
0
2

Area (fresh)

Production (fresh)

Area (for processing)

Production (for processing)

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

1000 ha
 240

 180

 120

 60

PEACHES and 
NECTARINES 

  PRODUCTION IMPACTED NEGATIVELY BY WEATHER 

After  a  low  production  in  2021  and  a  recovery  in  2022,  EU 
production  of  peaches  and  nectarines  in  2023  is  suffering 
from adverse weather conditions. Different producing regions 
are  impacted  either  by  drought  (e.g.  Northern  ES,  FR), 
excessive  rain  and  floods  (e.g.  Emilia-Romagna),  or  spring 
frost (e.g. EL, IT, Southern ES). While in some regions drought 
conditions  remain,  in  others  spring  rainfall  has  slightly 
improved  the  trees  conditions.  However,  risks  of  drought, 
occurrence  of  hails  and  storms  remain,  as  well  as  an 
unknown recovery pattern of trees currently flooded. Overall, 
EU  production  of  peaches  and  nectarines  is  expected  to 
decline  by  9%  to  2.9  million  t  in  2023  (16%  below  5-year 
average). 

Despite  this,  the  production  of  peaches  and  nectarines  for 
processing  could  remain  stable,  mainly  due  to  an  expected 
recovery  in  ES.  In  addition,  smaller  and  lower  quality  fruit 
normally  destined  to  fresh  market  could  also  end  up  in 
processing.  On the contrary, production of fresh peaches and 
nectarines is expected to decline (-11%, close to 2.4 million t) 
as a part of production is  destroyed due to the weather  and 
some fruit will have too low quality for the fresh consumption 
market.  Only  Spanish  production  is  likely  to  recover  (+30% 
year-on-year) which is not expected to compensate for losses 
in IT (-26%), EL (-10%) and FR (-4%). 

EU trade of peaches and nectarines  (1000 t)

  PRICES PUSHING CONSUMPTION DOWN  

18 

500

400

300

200

100

0

3
1
0
2

5
1
0
2

7
1
0
2

9
1
0
2

1
2
0
2

f
3
2
0
2

3
1
0
2

5
1
0
2

7
1
0
2

9
1
0
2

1
2
0
2

f
3
2
0
2

P&N for processing

Fresh P&N

Net trade

Export

Import

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

Due  to  lower  production  and  higher  consumer  prices  limiting 
purchases  of  fresh  products,  EU  consumption  of  fresh 
peaches  and  nectarines  could  decline  by  the  same  rate  as 
production  (-11%),  and  so  remain  below  5-year  average. 
There is also a risk that fruit quality does not meet consumer 
expectations,  and  this  could  lead  to  further  consumption 
decrease.  In  the  case  of  processed  (canned  and  dried) 
peaches  and  nectarines,  higher  costs  associated  with 
processing  and  distribution  are  adding  to  producer  prices, 
resulting  in  increasing  retail  prices.  As  a  result,  per  capita 
consumption  of  processed  peaches  and  nectarines  could 
slightly decline and remain below 1 kg in 2023. 

In the overall balance, imports look marginal. They represent 
around  2%  of  the  EU  consumption  of  fresh  peaches  and 
nectarines and up to 4% of the processed ones. Imports could 
remain  stable  for  processed  peaches  and  nectarines  while 
they could increase by 4 000 t in case of fresh peaches and 
nectarines,  which  is  in  line  with  the  long-term  trend.  The 
production  drop  of  fresh  peaches  and  nectarines  could  likely 
lead to a drop in EU exports as well (-11%). However, exports 
of  processed  peaches  and  nectarines  could  slightly  grow, 
assuming that part of these exports will be covered by stocks 
accumulated in the previous year, accounted in an increase of 
domestic consumption in 2022. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
EU tomatoes area and production

million t
20

1000 ha
300

15

10

5

0

250

200

150

100

Area
Production (fresh)

Production (total)
Production (for processing)

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

TOMATOES 

  EU PRODUCTION FOR PROCESSING ON THE RISE 

In  2023,  the  EU  total  production  of  tomatoes  is  expected  to 
increase by 5% to 17 million t (relatively stable comparing to 
5-year  average).  The  annual  production  of  tomatoes  for 
processing  (around  63%  of  total  production)  is  expected  to 
increase by 8% to 10.7 million t (6% above 5-year average). 
EU production for fresh consumption should remain stable at 
around  6.3  million  t  (9%  below  5-year  average).  Higher 
producer  prices  can  partially  offset  higher  production  costs, 
with  later  planting  in  North  and  East  European  countries 
allowing  for  some  energy  cost  savings.  This,  however,  might 
lead  to  some  overlapping  and  increasing  supply  on  the 
market in the summer months. 

Higher  supply  of  processed  tomatoes  is  due  to  increase  per 
capita  apparent  consumption  to  19.5  kg  (+8%  year-on-year, 
and  11%  above  5-year  average)  including  stocks,  which  are 
currently very low. 

EU fresh tomatoes consumption per capita is expected to be 
stable  compared  to  last  year  (15  kg,  5%  below  5-year 
average). However, consumers remain very sensitive to retail 
in  the  category  of  small  tomatoes 
price 
(cocktail/cherry) that are generally on increase. 

levels,  also 

EU trade of tomatoes (1000 t)

  EU IMPORTS OF FRESH TOMATOES CONTINUE 

THEIR UPWARD TREND 

19 

5 000

4 000

3 000

2 000

1 000

 0

-1 000

1
1
0
2

3
1
0
2

5
1
0
2

7
1
0
2

9
1
0
2

1
2
0
2

f
3
2
0
2

1
1
0
2

3
1
0
2

5
1
0
2

7
1
0
2

9
1
0
2

1
2
0
2

f
3
2
0
2

Tomatoes for processing

Fresh tomatoes

Net trade

Export

Import

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

EU imports of fresh tomatoes are expected to increase by 7% 
to 850 000 t (34% above 5-year average), although less than 
in  the  past.  Morocco  and  Türkiye  remain  their  main  sources 
(in  2022  70%  of  EU  fresh  tomatoes  imports  were  from 
Morocco, and 25% from Türkiye). 

EU  exports  of  fresh  tomatoes  continue  their  long-term 
downward  trend  (-6%  year-on-year,  and  20%  below  5-year 
average). This is partially also due to an increasing presence 
of  third  countries’  imports  in  the  UK  (the  largest  EU  export 
market),  and  the  uncertainty  related  to  access  for  EU 
exporters to this market with regards to  border controls and 
checks.  High  transport  costs  and  SPS  barriers  are  for  the 
moment  hindering  the  expansion  to  other  countries  (e.g.  in 
Asia, US, Canada). 

EU  imports  of  processed  tomatoes  (2.5  million  t)  could 
decline  (-3%  year-on-year)  but  remain  6%  above  5-year 
average.  Production  in  Ukraine  is  still  low  (and  hence  lower 
exports),  but  it  is  partially  recovering  which  is  having  an 
impact  on  tomato  paste  exported  to  the  EU.  EU  exports  of 
processed tomatoes (4.4 million t) are expected to be stable 
despite  higher  availability  as  EU  consumption  increases,  and 
also due to a competition from other markets. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
3
2
0
2
R
E
M
M
U
S

© Cornelia Smets_EC 

© petrrgoskov_AdobeStock 

© MJ Fotografie_AdobeStock 

© marek-piwnicki_Unsplash 

© Moonborne_AdobeStock 

© denise-jans_Unsplash 

20 

KEY 
MESSAGES  

Stable 
SMP and butter production in 2023 

+10% 
SMP exports recovery in 2023 

-1% 
per capita meat consumption 2023 

-12% 
pigmeat exports in 2023 

ANIMAL PRODUCTS 

HIGHLIGHTS 

Despite growth of EU milk deliveries in spring, this trend is likely to be reverted in the 
second  part  of  the  year,  driven  mainly  by  increasing  slaughterings.  The  EU  raw  milk 
prices  continue  decreasing  while  input  costs  stay  high  even  if  some  of  them  already 
showed some decline or stabilisation. This could continue putting a downward pressure 
on milk deliveries. Overall, 2023 EU milk deliveries could be 0.2% lower than last year. 
Lower EU prices contribute to recovery of exports of some dairy products, in particular 
butter  and  SMP  for  which  higher  exports  are  expected  in  2023.  At  the  same  time, 
domestic use and consumption remain challenged by lower purchasing power.  

EU  beef  production  is  expected  to  decrease  further  in  2023  by  2%,  mainly  due  to  a 
structural adjustment in the beef and dairy sector, despite high beef prices. A smaller 
breeding herd as well as African Swine Fever (ASF) push EU pigmeat production further 
down  in  2023,  by  5.5%,  despite  lowering  feed  prices.  As  production  costs  are  coming 
down  from  very  high  levels  and  due  to  lower  occurrence  of  Highly  Pathogenic  Avian 
Influenza (HPAI), EU poultry production could benefit from a quicker recovery of 2.4% in 
2023, The historically low EU sheep and goat flock pushes slaughterings down by 1% 
in 2023, despite high domestic prices. More imports from New Zealand and the UK are 
expected, due to favourable lambing conditions and high EU prices. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
8 000

7 000

6 000

5 000

4 000

3 000

2 000

1 000

 0

EU weekly dairy prices (EUR/t)

0
1
0
2

1
1
0
2

2
1
0
2

3
1
0
2

4
1
0
2

5
1
0
2

6
1
0
2

7
1
0
2

8
1
0
2

9
1
0
2

0
2
0
2

1
2
0
2

2
2
0
2

3
2
0
2

Butter

SMP

WMP

Cheese

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on MS notifications. 

MILK 

EU RAW MILK PRICE CONTINUE DECLINING 

Since the beginning of the year, EU raw milk prices have been 
declining  and  in  June,  the  estimated  average  EU  raw  milk 
price  was  around  EUR  45/100  kg  (-23%  below  the  peak 
reached  in  December  2022).  The  situation  varies  per  EU 
countries as the price drops ranged from -2% in CY to around 
-30% and  more in  Baltic countries, Benelux, and DK and  DE. 
The highest drop between Dec-June (around 40%), based on 
June estimates, was recorded in IE and RO.  

Some  input  costs  have  continued  to  decline.  For  example, 
after  having  reached  a  peak  in  Q4  2022,  feed  costs  did  not 
show  any  increase  anymore  in  Q1  2023.  However,  they  still 
remain high compared to the average levels observed in the 
past. Energy and fertiliser cost indices were reduced more but 
compared to a higher peak than feed costs. 

Underpinned  by  lower  EU  raw  milk  prices,  prices  of  EU  dairy 
commodities dropped as well. In the case of SMP, WMP, and 
butter,  the  declining  trends  observed  in  the  spring  showed 
some stabilisation (even a slight increase for WMP) while EU 
prices  of  cheeses  and  whey  declined  further.  Now,  these 
moves  contributed to increasing competitiveness of EU  dairy 
products.  In  late  June,  EU  butter  price  is  the  lowest  among 
the  main  export  competitors,  while  for  other  dairy  products 
(SMP,  WMP,  cheddar),  the  EU  origin  is  the  second  cheapest 
one. 

Dairy herd and milk yield development 
2015-2023

8 000

6 000

w
o
c

y
r
i
a
d

r
e
p

4 000

g
k

2 000

 0

Milk yield

Number of dairy cows

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development based on Eurostat. 

21 

s
d
a
e
h
n
o

i
l
l
i

m

 24

 18

 12

 6

 0

POSITIVE  TREND  OF  MILK  DELIVERIES  LIKELY  TO 
REVERT 

Despite  a  decline  of  EU  raw  milk  prices,  EU  milk  deliveries 
were  0.8%  higher  in  Jan-April  compared  to  last  year. 
However,  their  development  was  very  heterogenous  across 
EU  countries.  Relative  to  the  evolution  of  raw  milk  prices  at 
the  level  of  individual  EU  countries,  two  main  observations 
could  be  made.  Firstly,  lower  prices  already  led  to  lower 
production  (e.g.  IE,  LT).  Secondly,  the  continuous  increase  of 
milk  deliveries  had  potentially  further  supported  the  drop  in 
prices  as  the  demand  response  was  not  proportional  to  this 
increase (e.g. Benelux, DE, DK, PL). 

Until  April,  cows’  slaughterings  remained  slightly  below  the 
level of last year. Considering lower raw milk prices, and input 
costs  that  still  stay  high,  the  slaughterings  which  were 
expected  to  accelerate  over  last  winter  and  spring  will  likely 
take place over the summer. This could lead to an overall 1% 
decline  in  EU  dairy  herd,  which  could  lead  to  an  overall 
slowdown  of  EU  milk  deliveries  growth.  The  growth  of  milk 
yields  could  be  at  a  comparable  level  of  last  year  (0.7%), 
assuming  relatively  normal  weather  conditions  still  at  this 
stage.  This  could  also  contribute  to  a  better  quality  of  the 
milk  relative  to  2022.  Driven  by  smaller  dairy  herd,  the 
positive spring trend of milk deliveries is likely to be reverted 
and  so  2023  milk  deliveries  could  remain  negative  (-0.2%) 
overall. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Annual change in EU production of selected 
dairy products (1000 t of milk eq.)

 400

 200

 0

- 200

- 400

- 600

- 800

-1 000

2022e-2021

2023f-2022e

FDP

Cheese

Butter

SMP

WMP

Whey powders

Note: SMP and butter production could remain stable in 2023 so they 
don’t appear in the second bar. 
Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

EU export and consumption changes in 2023f 
(1000 t of milk eq., year-on-year)

Whey powders

WMP

SMP

Butter

Cheese

FDP

- 200

 0

 200

 400

 600

Consumption change

Exports change

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

DAIRY PRODUCTS 

EU SMP AND BUTTER EXPORTS UP  

While EU milk deliveries continued growing, the demand was 
not 
reacting  proportionally.  Despite  some  signs  of 
stabilisation,  inflation  pressure  stays  high,  and  this  impacts 
negatively  purchasing  power  of  consumers  not  only  through 
spending  on  food  but  also  on  other  household  items  (e.g. 
energy).  At  the  same  time,  processing  and  storage  costs 
remain  alleviated.  Therefore,  compared 
to  estimates 
presented in the Spring 2023 outlook, there has not been any 
significant  revision  for  EU  consumption  and  domestic  use  of 
dairy products. 

Dairy demand has been challenged due to rising inflation also 
in  key  import  markets.  Globally,  the  declines  of  imports  in 
China  and  South-East  Asia,  being  traditionally  the  most 
dynamic  markets  for  dairy  imports,  were  compensated  by 
increasing  flows  to  MENA,  Brazil  and  Mexico.  Thanks  to 
improved EU competitiveness, EU exports grew in Jan-Mar by 
33% for SMP, 11% for butter and 5% for whey powders. The 
particularly  positive  evolution  recorded  for  SMP  and  butter 
could  lead  to  higher  EU  exports  in  2023  (10%  and  4% 
respectively),  even  more  than  estimated  in  the  Spring  2023 
outlook. On the other hand, EU exports were lower for cheese 
(-1%)  and  even  more  for  fresh  dairy  products  (-14%)  in    
Jan-Mar, which is reflected in a lower growth of EU exports in 
2023. 

22 

IMPROVED  GLOBAL  DEMAND  COULD  HELP 
BALANCE THE MARKET 

Contrary to earlier expectations, and thanks to a recovery of 
EU exports, EU SMP and butter production is likely to remain 
stable in 2023 to support the exports growth. Stocks of SMP 
could also  be reduced, benefitting from price  moves.   At  the 
same time, this would help to reduce some storage costs. 

Given  the  same  assumption  of  overall  milk  deliveries  as  in 
the  Spring  2023  outlook,  and  the  stability  in  EU  SMP  and 
butter production, estimates of cheese, whey and WMP were 
slightly  revised  downwards.  Similar  reduction  was  also 
applied  to  fresh  dairy  products  which  are  more  directly 
exposed  to  changing  consumer  behaviour  in  relation  to  food 
inflation.  

Looking ahead, the improvement of the economic outlook will 
be a key to support the global dairy demand. This could help 
balance  the  global  dairy  market  in  the  second  half  of  the 
year,  even  if  global  milk  production  growth  could  also  slow 
down  as  a  reaction  to  declining  milk  prices  while  costs  are 
reduced  at  a  lower  pace.  However,  the  recovery  of  China’s 
imports  is  slower,  and  the  market  is  still  assumed  to  be 
oversupplied,  therefore  the  uncertainty  stays  high  despite 
positive results achieved in other destinations so far. For the 
EU  specifically,  this  could  also  mean  a  higher  competition 
f

  f  h

d)  

 (

l 

d

l

l

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
EU weekly meat prices indices            

(January 2021= 1)

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

/

1
2
0
2
1
0
4
0

/

/

1
2
0
2
3
0
4
0

/

/

1
2
0
2
5
0
4
0

/

/

1
2
0
2
7
0
4
0

/

/

1
2
0
2
9
0
4
0

/

/

1
2
0
2
1
1
4
0

/

/

2
2
0
2
1
0
4
0

/

/

2
2
0
2
3
0
4
0

/

/

2
2
0
2
5
0
4
0

/

/

2
2
0
2
7
0
4
0

/

/

2
2
0
2
9
0
4
0

/

/

2
2
0
2
1
1
4
0

/

/

3
2
0
2
1
0
4
0

/

/

3
2
0
2
3
0
4
0

/

/

3
2
0
2
5
0
4
0

/

Beef

Pigmeat

Poultry

Sheep and goat meat

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on MS notifications. 

BEEF/VEAL 

EU BEEF PRODUCTION DECLINING 

EU  beef  production  recorded  a  3.7%  decline  in  Q1  2023, 
mainly  due  to  a  significant  decrease  of  slaughterings  in  IT. 
Despite  an  increase  of  live  exports  (+5%)  which  are 
benefitting  in  particular  from  the  opening  of  the  Turkish 
market as well as to some extent from a downward move in 
feed costs, gross indigenous production is expected to decline 
by 1.8% in 2023. At this moment, normal weather conditions 
are  still  assumed  over  the  summer.  The  lower  beef  supply 
continues  supporting  EU  beef  producer  prices  which  were  in 
June 5% below their January peak. This continues negatively 
impacting EU competitiveness on external markets as well as 
domestic consumption. Given the high price level, the EU has 
been  facing  more  competition  in  high-value  markets  which 
leads to a decline in EU exports, and this is likely to stay for 
the remaining part of the year. Therefore, EU exports could be 
down 5% in 2023, contrary to an earlier expectation of rather 
stable exports.  

EU consumption drop could be at a similar level as estimated 
earlier,  and  so  EU  per  capita  beef  consumption  could  be 
around  10  kg  (-1.7%  below  last  year).  To  some  extent,  this 
could  be  due  to  reduced  consumer  purchases  caused  by 
inflation, and to some extent due to a switch  between  retail 
and  foodservice  uses  for  some 
(less  price  sensitive) 
categories of consumers.  

Jan-March EU pigmeat exports by main 
partners
(1 000 t carcass weight)

1 600

1 400

1 200

1 000

 800

 600

 400

 200

 0

2020

2021

2022

2023

China

UK

Australia

other

Philippines

US

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

   PIGMEAT 

  HIGH DOMESTIC PRICES REDUCE EU EXPORTS 

MORE STRONGLY  

23 

In  Q1  2023,  EU  pigmeat  production  went  down  7.7%, 
supporting high pig prices. In June, EU producer prices are at 
a historical high level (+30% compared to June 2022, +21% 
since  January  2023).  At  the  same  time,  the  EU  sow  herd  is 
shrinking. Overall, a decline in EU pigmeat production of 5.5% 
compared to last year is expected. 

At the same time, EU demand stays high but given a reduced 
supply,  a  drop  in  EU  per  capita  consumption  is  expected 
(-4.5  %,  to  30.4  kg),  even  if  lower  than  anticipated  in  the 
Spring  2023  outlook.  Besides  reduced  supply,  the  consumer 
considerations about price play an important role, which leads 
to a potential reduction of the meat consumption or a switch 
to other types of meat. In particular, pigmeat consumption is 
usually reduced at the benefit of poultry meat. 

EU exports continue declining. Looking forward, EU exports to 
China  are  expected  go  even  further  down  in  2023.  At  the 
same  time,  the  EU  loses  market  shares  both  in  high-value 
markets  (e.g.  US  and  Australia)  and  low-value  ones  (e.g. 
Philippines)  due  to  stronger  price  competition.  Overall,  EU 
exports  have  been  revised  down  in  2023  and  could  be  12% 
below last year.  

 
 
 
    
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Jan-March EU poultry trade by main partners 
(1 000 t carcass weight)

Exports

Imports

 600

 500

 400

 300

 200

 100

 0

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

1
2
0
2

2
2
0
2

3
2
0
2

1
2
0
2

2
2
0
2

3
2
0
2

UK

Ghana

Ukraine

other

Benin

Brazil

Saudi Arabia

Thailand

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

Jan-March EU sheep & goat trade by main 
partner 
(1 000 t of carcass weight)
Exports of live animals     Exports of meat      Imports of meat

POULTRY 

  QUICK RECOVERY OF EU POULTRY PRODUCTION 

Despite ongoing outbreaks of HPAI (but lower in numbers and 
in 
impact  compared  to  2022),  EU  poultry  production 
continues  proving  its  potential  to  recover  quickly.  Therefore, 
2023  production  estimate  has  been  revised  slightly  up 
(+2.4%),  not  yet  fully  factoring  in  a  potential  impact  of 
reduced  feed  and  energy  costs  at  this  stage.  Similarly  to 
other types of meat, EU producer prices increased although at 
a  slower  pace  than  in  the  case  of  pigmeat  (+6%  in  June 
compared to January), and even slightly declined in June.  

Due  to  high  prices,  the  EU  is  losing  some  shares  in  main 
export  markets.  There  are  also  some  HPAI  bans  in  place,  in 
particular 
in  the  case  of  non-recognition  of  the  EU 
regionalisation.  These  two  factors  are  likely  to  lead  to  lower 
EU  poultry  exports  in  2023  (-3%).  On  the  other  hand,  EU 
imports  are  growing,  notably  from  Brazil  and  Ukraine,  but 
also Thailand. This is likely to lead to higher than expected EU 
imports in 2023 (+18%). 

Higher domestic availability, both through EU production and 
imports, and lower price fluctuations are expected to support 
EU  per  capita  consumption  growth  in  2023  of  close  to  1  kg 
(around 4% year-on-year). 

   SHEEP/GOAT MEAT 

EU  SHEEP  MEAT  IMPORTS  GROW  AT  A  STRONGER 
RATE 

24 

timing  of 

Despite  positive  EU  production  growth  in  spring,  which  was 
driven  by  an  earlier 
religious 
celebrations, EU sheep meat production is expected to decline 
in 2023 by 1.5%, following the trend of a decreasing herd in 
the EU. The drought and the continuing outbreak of sheep pox 
in ES are not factored in due to their uncertain impacts on the 
production at this stage. 

traditional 

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

3
2
0
2

2
2
0
2

other

Israel, Lebanon, Libya

Saudi Arabia

Jordan

EU  shipments  of  sheep  meat  are  impacted  negatively  by  a 
strong  price  competition  and  lower  domestic  production, 
which  is  likely  to  lead  to  a  reduction  of  EU  exports  in  2023    
(-5%),  being  stronger  than  the  rate  estimated  in  the  Spring 
2023 outlook. 

2
2
0
2

3
2
0
2

2
2
0
2

3
2
0
2

Regarding  EU  imports,  the  price  attractiveness  of  the  EU 
market is likely to lead to their increase (+12%), in particular 
from the UK and New Zealand, the traditional suppliers. 

Despite  being  the  most  expensive  type  of  meat,  the  EU 
consumption of sheep meat  is likely to suffer not so  greatly 
from inflationary pressures as other red meat types, favoured 
by its specific positioning within consumer baskets (religious, 
cultural).  Nevertheless,  the 
increase  of  EU  per  capita 
consumption could be rather small (+1.4%). 

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

 
 
 
    
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
takes 

into  account 

recent 
This  outlook 
macroeconomic 
the  domestic  and 
international market developments and expectations. Data is 
subject to retrospective review. 

information  and 

the  most 

The balance sheets refer to  six calendar years for meat  and 
dairy  and  seven  marketing  years  for  crops  and  fruit  and 
vegetables. 

SOURCES 
• 

European  Central  Bank  staff  macroeconomic  projections 
for the euro area 1 

• 

S&P Global 
-  DataInsight database 
-  Commodity Price Watch 
•  World Bank, Commodity Markets2 
•  Drewry 3 world container index, cited by Statista4 
•  Baltic dry index,5 cited by Statista6 
• 

Eurostat 
-  Agricultural production yearly for historical data and 
monthly data for previous and current year for meat 
and dairy production 
-  Farm livestock survey 
-  Gross Indigenous Production (GIP) forecast for meat 
-  Early estimates for crop products 

•  Comext database (extra and intra-EU trade statistics) 

Due  to  some  inconsistencies  in  intra-EU  trade  reporting, 
intra-trade is based on export figures only, i.e. imports of 
France are calculated as extra-EU imports plus exports of 
EU partners to France. This with the exception of the UK 
that  still  remains  in  the  intra-EU  trade  reporting,  even 
though  it  is  not  part  anymore  of  the  EU  since  February 
2020  and  therefore  included  in  extra-EU  trade  figures. 
For  trade  with  the  UK,  only  the  declaration  of  the 
Member States is considered, both imports and exports. 

1 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/ecb.projections202306_eurosy
stemstaff~6625228e9f.en.html#toc6 

2 https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets 
3  Drewry  World  Container  Index  reports  actual  spot  container  freight  rates  for 
major  East  West  trade  routes.  The  Index  consists  of  8  route-specific  indices 
representing  individual  shipping  routes  and a  composite  index.  All  indices are 
reported in USD per 40ft Container.. https://www.drewry.co.uk/ 
4 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1250636/global-container-freight-index/ 
5  The  Baltic  Dry  Index  is  reported  daily  by  the  Baltic  Exchange  in  London.  The 
index provides a benchmark for the price of moving the major raw materials by 
sea. 
   https://balticexchange.com/en/data-services/market-information0/dry-
services.html 
6 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1035941/baltic-dry-index/ 

M E T H O D O L O G Y 

•  Global Trade Atlas (GTA, global trade statistics, including 

UK trade). 

•  Weekly 

commodity  prices 

to  DG 
Agriculture  and  Rural  Development  by  the  Member 
States. 

communicated 

Macroeconomic forecast is based on sources provided by the 
European  Central  Bank,  with  additional  insights  from  S&P 
Global. 

Production  forecast  for  current  and  next  year  is  based, 
depending  on  the  sector,  on  Eurostat  monthly  data,  official 
estimates of ministries, national statistical institutes, national 
or European organisations, MS notifications to DG Agriculture 
and Rural Development and on the Crop Monitoring and Yield 
Forecasting  projections  (JRC  MARS  AGRI4CAST 7)  in  the  case 
of  cereals;  on  expert  forecasts  for  Gross 
Indigenous 
Production (in heads) sent by Member States (MS) to Eurostat 
in the case of meat; on monthly milk deliveries for dairy. The 
estimated  and  forecast  external  trade  figures  are  derived 
from  the  latest  monthly  data  available  by  applying  trends 
and annual profiles as well as from trade licences and import 
quotas, when applicable. 

As  Brexit  took  place  on  31  January  2020,  market  outlooks 
reflect the current EU-27 composition for the whole reporting 
period.  This  is  valid  for  all  markets  except  sugar  for  which  
EU-27 balance sheets are produced only from 2019/2020 not 
to disclose confidential information on UK sugar stocks. 

25 

Trade forecast is based on latest data available until 15th of 
the month preceding the publication date. 

Although the  UK is  considered a third country  partner of  the 
EU since January 2021, EU countries continue reporting trade 
flows  to/from  the  Northern  Ireland  in  INTRASTAT  database 
while flows to/from Great Britain are reported in the database 
for  extra-EU  partners.  However, 
the  UK  figures  are 
consolidated  with  a  delay  to  reflect  reporting  for  Northern 
Ireland (70 days instead of 45). 

Because  of  this  delay  in  EU  trade  data  completeness,  the 
period covered by trade data might differ from the period for 
which  monthly  production  data  is  available  (usually  45  days 
after  the  end  of  month,  depending  on  the  source).  However, 
some  individual  data  for  other  extra-EU  partners  might 
already be available as described above. 

Price transmission along the food chain: main data source for 
individual  indices  is  Eurostat  (Food  price  monitoring  tool). 
However,  EU  farmer  price  indices  are  not  available  before 
January  2015.  Before  this  date,  the  monthly  change  is 
estimated  based  on  Member  States  data  weighted  by  their 
share  in  the  agricultural  output.  Latest  Eurostat  monthly 

7 http://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/mars/About-us/AGRI4CAST/Crop-Monitoring-and-

Yield-Forecasting 

 
 
 
 
 
 
indices for EU farmer prices are available in September 2022. 
Since  this  date,  the  index  is  estimated  based  on  cereals, 
sugar,  milk,  meat,  tomatoes  and  apples  monthly  prices 
weighted by annual production (updated by the latest edition 
of  short-term  outlook:  https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/data-
and-analysis/markets/outlook/short-term_en). 

ARABLE CROPS 

Figures  for  the  marketing  year  2023/24  are  based  on  a 
forecast that considers the latest developments, and average 
trends  observed  in  past.  These  average  trends  are  removing 
strong year-on-year variations that could have happened due 
to extreme market and weather events. 

Crop areas 

For  MS  in  which  data  is  not  yet  available,  a  percentage 
variation  is  estimated  on  the  basis  of  those  MS  which 
communicated  data  or  area  is  estimated  through  the 
trimmed  average  of  the  last  five  marketing  years  or 
assuming no changes compared to the previous year. 

Yields 

MS estimates or AGRI4CAST projections are used if available. 
If these data are not available, preferably the yield trend over 
the 12 last years is retained, otherwise the trimmed average 
of the last five marketing years is used. 

Trade 

Cereal  trade  figures  include  cereals  as  such,  plus  flour  and 
groats  (in  cereal  equivalent).  In  the  former  editions  of  the 
Short-term  Outlook,  maize 
included  additional 
processed products. This has been revised backward and the 
balance  is  closed  via  an  adjustment  of  the  processing 
demand. 

trade 

Balance sheets  

They are based on a marketing year starting with the harvest: 
July/June for cereals and Oct/Sept for sugar. Thus, area, yield 
and production figures of crops refer to the year of harvest. 

Cereals 

Human  consumption,  seed  use  and  other  industrial  use  is 
based  on  historic  relations  regarding  population  and  planted 
area  in  the  relevant  marketing  year.  Feed  use  is  based  on 
calculations.  Forecast  is  based  on  information  about  the 
ethanol  production  development.  Stocks  are  closing  the 
balance for cereals8. Intervention stocks equal official figures 
of 
the  Directorate-General  for  Agriculture  and  Rural 
Development  for  the  past  and  estimates  based  on  past 
experience for the current marketing year, if applicable. 

Oilseeds 

The  balance  sheets  include  rape,  soya  beans  and  sunflower 
seed  meal  and  oil,  plus  palm  oil.  Stock  data  represent  own 
judgement  and  market 
estimates  based  on  expert 

8  For  all  crops  this  refers  to  a  situation  as  of  end-June,  which  may  differ 

from other balances, e.g. IGC for maize, USDA for corn. 

information. Thus, the balances close on the domestic use. A 
coefficient is used to determine the share of oilseeds used in 
the crushing industry. These crushing coefficients range from 
94%  to  98%  for  rapeseed,  89-91%  for  soya  beans  and     
85–89%  for  sunflower  seed.  The  balance  sheets  are 
interlinked, as oilseeds are crushed into meals and oils on the 
basis  of  processing  coefficients,  used  to  determine  the 
percentage  of  meals  and  oils  obtained  from  oilseeds  in  the 
crushing  process.  These  processing  coefficients  equal  57% 
for  rape  meal,  79%  for  soya  bean  meal  and  55%  for 
sunflower meal and 41% for rape oil, 20% for soya bean oil 
and 42% for sunflower oil. 

26 

Sugar 

For  sugar  beet  area,  yield  and  production,  the  procedure  is 
similar  to  the  other  arable  crops.  It  includes  sugar  beets  for 
sugar  production  and  for  ethanol  production.  The  balance 
sheet  includes  only  sugar  beet  production  processed  into 
sugar9 and white sugar. The link with white sugar production 
is made through the white sugar production as notified under 
the  Common  Market  Organisation  (CMO)  for  sugar.  The 
presented balances do only consider sugar expressed in white 
sugar  equivalent  (e.g.  no  isoglucose)  and  take  into  account 
sugar beet  production outside of the quota (up to 2016/17). 
Trade  of  products  containing  sugar  is  reported  under  net 
exports  in  processed  products  under  domestic  uses  of  white 
sugar.  These  are  estimated  by  applying  conversion 
coefficients  to  trade  volumes  of  over  400  processed  food 
products. Industrial and biofuel use is based on historical data 
and  projections  based  on 
information  about  ethanol 
production  development.  Stocks  are  taken  from  Member 
States  notifications  when  they  become  available  and 
therefore the balance closes over human consumption. When 
Member  State  information  on  stocks  is  not  yet  available  for 
the  projections,  they  are  closing  the  balance.  The  reported 
stocks include carry-forward sugar (up to 2016/17). 

For  confidentiality  reasons  with  regard  to  Member  States 
notifications on stocks, EU+UK sugar balances are presented 
in  this  report  up  to  2019/20.  For  the  same  reason,  only 
change in EU stocks is presented for 2020/21. 

Isoglucose 

Production  and  stocks  data  originate  from  MS  notifications 
under  the  Common  Market  Organisation  (CMO)  when  they 
become  available.  The  balance  closes  over  consumption. 
2019/20  estimates  and  2020/21  forecast  are  based  on 
trends and experts’ judgment. 

Biodiesel 

The balance sheet is based on calendar year. Production data 
comes  from  Eurostat.  Data  covers  production  from  various 
feedstocks, including vegetable oils, used cooking oils, animal 
fats  and  waste  (e.g.  used  cooking  oil).  Consumption  includes 
fuel  use  data  from  Eurostat  and  own  estimates  of  biodiesel 
for  other  uses.  Trade  figures  include  trade  of  pure  biodiesel 

9 Sugar beet production processed directly into ethanol is not accounted for 

in the white sugar production. 

 
 
 
 
 
as  well  as  biodiesel  in  blends.  Biodiesel  traded  in  blends  is 
estimated  using  blending  coefficients.  Stock  data  is  not 
available  and  therefore  changes  in  stocks  are  presented  as 
closing variable. Estimates and forecast are based on trends 
and experts’ judgment. 

Ethanol 

The balance sheet is based on calendar year. Production and 
consumption  data  is  taken  from  MS  notifications.  To  these 
data,  an  estimate  is  added  for  ethanol  produced  from      
non-agricultural  waste  directed  to  fuel  use.  Production  data 
covers production from various feedstocks, including  cereals, 
sugar (beet) and molasses, other agricultural feedstocks (e.g. 
wine and potatoes) and (non-)agricultural residues and waste 
(e.g. straw). Consumption includes fuel use, use for food and 
beverages,  and  industrial  and  other  use.  Trade  data  covers 
undenatured  and  denatured  ethyl  alcohol,  applying  a 
conversion  coefficient  to  pure  alcohol  of  92%,  and  excludes 
trade in blends. Stocks are the closing variable. Estimates and 
forecast are based on trends and experts’ judgment. 

SPECIALISED CROPS 

Olive oil 

The  balance sheet is based  on a campaign starting with the 
harvest: October/September. 

Production estimates present MS notifications for an ongoing 
campaign. Exports and imports are based on seasonal trends 
and  trends  observed  in  previous  years  in  main  export 
into  account 
destinations.  Consumption  estimates  take 
different  trends  in  main  producing  countries  (Spain,  Italy, 
Greece  and  Portugal)  and  the  rest  of  the  EU.  In  the  former, 
the  link  between  a  variation  of  annual  production  and 
consumption change is taken into account. The balance closes 
on ending stocks. 

Wine 

well  as  last  years’  production  and  consumption,  are  used  to 
estimate use of apples for processing. 

When  MS information on stocks is available via World Apple 
and  Pear  Association 
(WAPA),  the  balance  closes  on 
consumption. 

Exports and imports are based on seasonal trends and trends 
observed in previous years in main export destinations. Trade 
of  processed  apples  is  expressed  in  fresh  apple  equivalent. 
The  conversion  coefficients  used  to  convert  processed 
products 
into  fresh  apple  weight  rates  vary  between 
1.3 and 610. 

Tomatoes 

The  balance  sheet  is  based  on  a  calendar  year  It  includes 
tomatoes both for fresh consumption and for processing. 

The  total  production  of  tomatoes  consists  of  the  production 
of  ‘tomatoes  for  fresh  consumption’  and  the  production  of 
‘tomatoes for processing’. Eurostat is used for the production 
of  fresh  tomatoes  and  World  Tomato  Processing  Council 
figures for the production of tomatoes for processing. 

The  production  forecast  for  fresh  tomatoes  is  based  on 
trends  and  market  expertise.  The  forecast  for  tomatoes  for 
processing  is  based  on  forecasts  from  the  World  Tomato 
Processing Council. 

Trade  of  processed  tomatoes  is  expressed  in  fresh  tomato 
equivalent. Conversion coefficients used to convert processed 
products 
tomato  weights  vary  between 
into 
1.13 and.19.511. 

fresh 

Trade  projections  are  based  on  production,  consumption 
estimates  and  trends  observed  in  previous  years  in  main 
export destinations. 

27 

Stocks of both fresh and processed tomatoes are assumed to 
be zero. Consumption is calculated as a residual. This implies 
that stock changes are included in consumption figures.  

The  balance  sheet  is  based  on  a  campaign  from  August  to 
July. 

Peaches and Nectarines 

The  forecast  of  vinified  production 
is  based  on  MS 
notifications  for  an  ongoing  campaign.  An  estimate  of  the 
vinified  production  used  for  ‘other  uses’  is  based  on  total 
vinified  production  as  well  as  the  consumer  demand  for 
products such as vermouth, cleaning products etc. 

Exports  and  imports  are  based  on  trends  and  market 
expertise. 

Consumption  estimates  take  into  account  different  trends  in 
main consuming countries (Spain, Italy, France and Germany) 
and the rest of the EU. The balance closes on ending stocks. 

Apples 

The  balance  sheet  is  based  on  marketing  year  starting  with 
the  harvest:  August/July.  It  includes  apples  both  for  fresh 
consumption and for processing. 

The  forecast  of  total  apple  production  is  based  on  forecasts 
of national or European sectoral organisations. These data, as 

The  balance  sheet  is  based  on  a  calendar  year.  It  includes 
peaches  and  nectarines  both  for  fresh  consumption  and  for 
processing. 

Historical data are based on Eurostat. The total production of 
peaches  and  nectarines  adds  up  the  production  of  ‘peaches’ 
and the production of ‘nectarines’. The production of peaches 
and  nectarines  for  fresh  consumption  is  calculated  as  the 
total production of peaches and nectarines minus peaches for 
processing. 

The  production  forecast  is  based  on  estimated  production 
changes by Europeche and applied to the Eurostat data. 

Trade  of  processed  peaches  is  expressed  in  fresh  peach 
equivalent.  The  conversion  coefficient  is  1  for  all  processed 

10 Conversion coefficients are based on a work conducted by Eurostat in 

2009. 

11 Conversion coefficients are based on a work conducted by Eurostat in 

2009. 

 
 
 
 
products, but 6 for dried peaches and nectarines. Projections 
are  based  on  information  about  production  and  trends  in 
consumption as well as trends in main export destinations. 

Stocks  of  fresh  peaches  are  assumed  zero.  Consumption  is 
calculated as a residual. 

Oranges 

The  balance sheet is based  on a campaign starting with the 
harvest: October/September. The balance sheet includes fresh 
oranges  and  processed  oranges  (mainly  juice  and  jams)  and 
is expressed in fresh equivalent. 

Area,  yield  and  production  data  comes  from  Eurostat.  Own 
estimates  are  used  for  oranges  produced  for  processing. 
Trade  of  processed  oranges  is  estimated  using  conversion 
coefficients  into  fresh  equivalent12.  Conversion  coefficients 
used  to  convert  processed  products  into  fresh  oranges 
weights vary between 0.3 and 12. No stock data is currently 
available.  The  balance  closes  over  apparent  consumption. 
Forecast is based on trends and experts’ judgment. 

MEAT 

The  meat  balance  sheets  cover  the  beef,  pig,  poultry,  sheep 
and  goat  meat  categories.  Trade  data  is  divided  into  live 
animals  and  meat  products  (‘fresh  and  chilled’,  ‘frozen’, 
‘salted’  and  ‘prepared’).  The  offal  and  fat  categories  are 
excluded  (with  the  exception  of  pork  lard).  All  data  is 
expressed  in  carcass  weight  equivalent  unless  specified 
otherwise 13. 

Production forecast for the year 2023 is based on annual and 
monthly  data  on  slaughtering,  Member  States  expert 
forecast,  on  the  trends  in  livestock  numbers  and  meat 
consumption  patterns.  Net  production  refers  to  data  on 
slaughterings  taking  place  in  the  registered  slaughterhouses 
as  well  as  in  other  establishments.  The  other  slaughterings 
are  subject  to  constant  reviews;  therefore,  data  on  the  net 
production  might  be  sensitive  to  these  changes.  GIP  is 
calculated  as  net  production  plus  live  exports  minus  live 
imports.  Consumption  is  calculated  as  a  residual,  i.e.  sum  of 
production plus imports less exports plus stock change. 

MILK AND DAIRY PRODUCTS 

The  commodity  balance  sheets  cover  production  of  dairy 
products taking place in dairy processing plants and so far do 
not include on-farm production. 

Total  EU  production  of  dairy  products  and  in  particular  for 
SMP  and  WMP  is  estimated,  where  necessary  since  the 
concentration in the dairy processing industry has resulted in 

12 Conversion coefficients are laid down in Working Document ‘Handbook for 

compiling supply balance sheets – vegetables 
(ESTAT/ASA/PE/640rev3_WPM). 

13 Carcasses of bovine animals, pigs, sheep, goats and poultry are defined at 
point  3  ('carcass  weight'  at  point  4)  of  Annex  I  of  Regulation  (EC)  No 
1165/2008  concerning  livestock  and  meat  statistics.  For  more  details  as 
regards  the  conversion  coefficients of  product weight  into  carcass  weight 
equivalent please refer to the Eurostat document ASA/TE/F/655. 

an increasing number of  Member States  not  publishing their 
(monthly) production statistics due to confidentiality. 

Dairy products production for year 2021 is based on Eurostat 
annual  statistics,  estimates  for  2022  are  based  on  the 
available  monthly  statistics,  taking  into  account  the  country 
coverage  and  sample  characteristics  (therefore  not  fully 
comparable  to  reported  monthly  figures  by  Eurostat,  and 
based  on  the  comparison  of  trends  between  annual  and 
monthly  databases  in  past).  Forecast  for  2023  is  based  on 
current  market  developments,  price  expectations,  the  trends 
stemming  from  the  medium-term  projections  and  on 
consumption  patterns.  Assumptions  are  made  on  the  dairy 
herd  and  cow  milk  yield,  milk  demand  for  direct  sales,  feed 
and  on-farm  use,  and  milk  fat  and  protein  content 
developments. 

Milk uses for dairy products are balanced with availabilities of 
total milk fat and proteins through a ‘residual approach’. 

2023  market  forecast  is  first  made  for  milk  deliveries  and 
the  production  of  dairy  products.  The  forecast  production 
figures  are  then  converted  into  protein  and  fat  equivalents 
and subtracted from the available dairy fat and protein of the 
milk delivered. In the dairy products balances, consumption is 
calculated  as  a  residual,  i.e.  sum  of  production  plus  imports 
less  exports  plus  stock  change.  Knowledge  of  private 
(commercial) stocks and consumption levels is incomplete or 
lacking  for  most  dairy  products.  The  developments  in 
domestic  use  may  hide  considerable  changes  in  private 
(industry/trade) stocks. 

Trade  is  expressed  in  milk  equivalent  using  the  total  solid 
methodology  accounting  for 
the  non-fat  and  protein 
components  of  milk  such  as  lactose.  As  a  consequence,  the 
milk coefficient of cheese (composed of fat and protein only) 
is  lower  with  this  methodology  (3.58)  than  when  accounting 
for  fat  and  protein  only  (5.97).  The  other  coefficients  used 
are:  6.57  for  butter,  7.57  for  SMP,  7.56  for  WMP,  7.48  for 
whey  powder,  0.85  for  drinking  milk,  3.21  for  cream  and 
0.98 for yogurts. 

28 

In the case of  butter, trade flows under inward and outward 
processing  are  extracted  from  trade  figures  in  the  butter 
balance  sheet.  As  those  regimes  are  not  reported  for  flows 
to/from UK, for imports under inward processing a coefficient 
of  30%  is  applied  for  EU  imports  from  the  UK  and  a 
coefficient  of  20%  for  EU  exports  to  the  UK  to  account  for 
outward processing. Those values are then extracted from the 
EU  trade  flows.  This  methodology  might  change  when  the 
respective regimes will start to be reported. 

DATA 

From  this  edition,  all  EU  balance  sheets  are  available  in   
Agri-Food  data  portal  only,  in  the  form  of  both  tables  and 
graphs. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ABBREVIATIONS 

ASF 
AT 
bbl 
BE 
BG 
BSGI 
CAP 
CY 
CZ 
DE 
DK 
ECB 
EE 
EL 
ES 
EU 
EUR 
FDP 
FI 
FR 
GDP 
HPAI 

African swine fever 
Austria 
barrel (approximately 159 litres) 
Belgium 
Bulgaria 
Black Sea Grain Initiative 
Common Agricultural Policy 
Cyprus 
Czechia 
Germany 
Denmark 
European Central Bank 
Estonia 
Greece 
Spain 
European Union 
Euro 
fresh dairy products 
Finland 
France 
gross domestic product 
highly pathogenic avian influenza 

HR 
HU 
IE 
IT 
K 
LT 
LU 
LV 
MMBtu  Metric million British thermal units 

Croatia 
Hungary 
Ireland 
Italy 
potassium 
Lithuania 
Luxembourg 
Latvia 

MS 
MT 
N 
NL 
P 
PL 
pp 
PT 
RO 
SE 
SI 
SK 
SMP 
STO 
UK 
US 
USD 
WMP 

(approximately 293.1 kilowatt hours) 
Member States 
Malta 
nitrogen 
Netherlands 
phosphorus 
Poland 
percentage point 
Portugal 
Romania 
Sweden 
Slovenia 
Slovakia 
skimmed milk powder 
Short Term Outlook 
United Kingdom 
United States 
US dollar 
whole milk powder 

29 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
FINDING INFORMATION ABOUT THE EU 

Online 

Information about the European Union in all the official languages of the EU is available on the Europa website at: 
https://europa.eu/european-union/index_en 

EU publications 

You can download or order free and priced EU publications from: https://publications.europa.eu/en/publications.  

Multiple copies of free publications may be obtained by contacting Europe Direct or your local information centre  
(see https://europa.eu/european-union/contact_en). 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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ISSN  2600-0873 

Twitter: @EUAgri 

#AgriOutlook 
Short-term (europa.eu)