Ex-post evaluation of Council Regulation (EU) 2020/672 of 19 May 2020 on the establishment of a European instrument for temporary support to mitigate unemployment risks in an emergency (SURE) following the COVID-19 outbreak
Date: 2023-06-19
Institutions: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: EU financing



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CALL FOR EVIDENCE


FOR AN EVALUATION / FITNESS CHECK 






This document aims to inform the public and stakeholders about the Commission’s work, so they can provide feedback and participate effectively in consultation activities.


We ask these groups to provide views on the Commission’s understanding of the problem and possible solutions and to share any relevant information that they may have.




 You should finalise this document at the earliest stages of the evaluation process, so that best use can be made of feedback from stakeholders.




 Although you are not required to consult the interservice group on the draft call for evidence, it is good practice to involve DGs with related policy areas from an early stage in the process.






Title of the evaluation




Temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) – evaluation 






Lead DG – responsible unit 




DG for Economic and Financial Affairs, Unit: Fiscal policy and surveillance (C1)






Indicative timetable


(planned start date and completion date)




Q3-2022 to Q3-2024






Additional information




https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-financial-assistance/sure_en






This document is for information purposes only. It does not prejudge the final decision of the Commission on whether this initiative will be pursued or on its final content. All elements of the initiative described by the document, including its timing, are subject to change.







A. Political context, purpose and scope of the evaluation






Political context [max 15 lines]






The European instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) was set up on a temporary basis in 2020 under Regulation (EU) 2020/672 as an emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The instrument expired on 31 December 2022. 


SURE was designed to help protect jobs and workers affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and it provided financial assistance in the form of loans from the EU to Member States. The primary purpose of these loans was to finance sudden increases in public spending on short-time work schemes or similar measures. Additionally, the loans could be used to support certain health-related measures, in particular in the workplace.


The creation of SURE was a tangible expression of EU solidarity where all Member States agreed to support each other through the EU by providing voluntary guarantees. During its lifetime, SURE provided financial assistance to 19 Member States for an amount of EUR 98.4 billion (out of its total available envelope of EUR 100 billion). This was expected to mitigate the economic, social and health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.


The Commission is now launching an evaluation of SURE as recommended by the European Court of Auditors (Special report 28/2022 on SURE) and as legally required under the Financial Regulation (Article 34). The evaluation aims to draw lessons for future decision-making. 






Purpose and scope [max 15 lines]






The purpose of the evaluation is to assess how SURE delivered on its main objectives to protect employment, mitigate unemployment risks and reduce the loss of income caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (under Article 1 of Regulation (EU) 2020/672). In line with the evaluation criteria set out in the Commission’s Better Regulation guidelines and the Interinstitutional Agreement on Better Law-Making, the evaluation will assess the effectiveness, efficiency, relevance, coherence and the EU value added of SURE.


The evaluation will also address the recommendation of the European Court of Auditors, particularly the extent to which SURE and the national measures it supported added value; whether and how SURE complemented national measures; and whether the SURE framework was effective in minimising the risk of irregularities and fraud, given the cases reported by Member States.


The evaluation will complement the assessment provided by the Commission in the bi-annual reports to the European Parliament, the Council, the Economic and Financial Committee and the Employment Committee.


The evaluation will cover the period between the creation of SURE in May 2020 and its expiry at the end of December 2022. The evaluation will cover all Member States, in particular the 19 Member States that benefited from the instrument.






B. Better regulation






Consultation strategy [max 10 lines]






The purpose of the consultation is to gather the views of a wide range of key stakeholders on the implementation of SURE, including on audit and control, which would help the overall assessment of the instrument. This will help draw lessons for future decision-making.


The main stakeholders identified include Member States’ national administrations, public employment services, labour inspectorates, national supreme audit bodies, social partners, businesses (including small and medium-sized companies), academia and think tanks.


The planned consultation activities include the following.


Online public consultation


A survey will be published in all official EU languages on the Have Your Say portal in Q4-2023 and will be open for 12 weeks. Responses can be submitted in any of the official EU languages. A summary report will be published on the consultation page after the survey closes.


Targeted consultations


Targeted consultations will be conducted with the main stakeholders to collect input that will assist the assessment of SURE.


The results of all consultation activities will be presented in a synopsis report that will be made available on the Commission consultation web page together with the final evaluation report.






Data collection and methodology [max 10 lines]






To start, the evaluation will use the information in the bi-annual reports from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the Economic and Financial Committee and the Employment Committee. By June 2023, the Commission had published five of these reports. This includes the data provided by Member States to the Commission, specifically spending on short-time work schemes, similar measures and health-related measures, and the number of workers and firms covered under those schemes.


Moreover, the evaluation will use additional data sources to analyse the individual implementation of SURE in selected Member States. This data will include administrative data (e.g. social security databases) to the extent possible and data from public employment services and ministries of labour.


The evaluation will use quantitative and qualitative methodologies and focus on the five evaluation criteria of effectiveness, efficiency, relevance, coherence and EU value added. Where possible, counterfactual analysis and macroeconomic modelling will also be carried out. Cross-referencing sources will help ensure the robustness of the results.