COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Fiscal Statistical Tables providing background data relevant for the assessment of the 2023 Stability or Convergence Programmes Accompanying the documents Recommendations for COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the 2023 National Reform Programmes and delivering Council opinions on the 2023 Stability or Convergence Programmes of Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, and Sweden; and on the 2023 National Reform Programme of Denmark
Date: 2023-05-24
Institutions: European Commission, Secretariat-General
Subjects: EU Member State, economic policy, economic recovery, economic reform, energy policy, public finance, stability pact, stability programme

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 24.5.2023  SWD(2023) 600 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Fiscal Statistical Tables providing background data relevant for the assessment of the 2023 Stability or Convergence Programmes Accompanying the documents Recommendations for COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the 2023 National Reform Programmes and delivering Council opinions on the 2023 Stability or Convergence Programmes of Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, and Sweden; and on the 2023 National Reform Programme of Denmark {COM(2023) 601-627 final} - {SWD(2023) 601-627 final}  
 
 
The  Fiscal  Statistical  Tables  provide  background  data  relevant  for  the  assessment  of  the  2023 
Stability or Convergence Programmes. 

In detail, the following tables are provided for each Member State: 

Table 1 (Macroeconomic developments and forecasts) shows the main macroeconomic data, 
including real GDP growth and its components, the output gap, employment, unemployment, labour 
productivity, inflation, the GDP deflator, compensation of employees, and the net borrowing/lending 
vis-à-vis the rest of the world. The projections from the 2023 Stability or Convergence Programmes 
are shown side-by-side with those of the Commission 2023 spring forecast. 

Table  2  (General  government  budgetary  position)  shows  data  on  the  main  general 
government  revenue  and  expenditure  variables  and  budgetary  targets  in  the  2023  Stability  or 
Convergence Programmes, in comparison with the Commission 2023 spring forecast. 

Table 3 (Main indicators for fiscal surveillance) includes the relevant fiscal indicators that are 
used  for  fiscal  surveillance  at  this  stage.  The  table  also  details  the  setting  of  the  recommended 
(maximum) growth rate for net nationally financed primary expenditure in 2024. 

Table 4 (General government debt developments) shows the evolution of general government 
debt and provides a breakdown of the change in the debt-to-GDP ratio based on the contributions 
of  the  primary  balance,  the  ‘snow-ball  effect’  (reflecting  the  relationship  between  nominal  GDP 
growth and interest expenditure), and the ‘stock-flow adjustment’ (that is, other factors that have 
an impact on general government debt, such as differences between cash and accrual recording, or 
the net accumulation of financial assets). 

Table  5  (Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility  –  Grants)  presents  data  on  grants  from  the 
Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility  as  included  in  the  Programmes’  revenue  projections,  their  cash 
disbursements, and the expenditure categories (or other costs) financed by those grants. 

Table 6  (Recovery and Resilience Facility  – Loans), where applicable,  presents data on cash 
disbursements and repayments of loans from/to the Recovery and Resilience Facility as included in 
the  Programmes’  projections,  their  cash  disbursements,  and  the  expenditure  categories  (or  other 
costs) financed by those loans. 

The Fiscal Statistical Tables are complemented by two thematic boxes: 

Box  1  (Fiscal  surveillance  indicators  used  in  the  assessment  of  the  2023  Stability  or 
Convergence  Programmes)  provides  details  on  the  definition  of  the  fiscal  stance  and  its 
components  for  fiscal  surveillance  purposes  at  this  stage,  and  explains  how  the  recommended 
fiscal adjustment for 2024 – which, in the 2023 spring economic surveillance round, is established 
as a growth rate of net nationally financed primary expenditure – has been set. 

Box 2 (Statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows) summarises 
the fundamental principles underlying the recording of these transactions. 

1 

 
 
 
The Fiscal Statistical Tables reproduce data from the 2023 Stability or Convergence Programmes, 
as publicly reported in those documents. Therefore, the accuracy and quality of the data presented 
in the tables is influenced by how the information was provided in those source documents. 

Differences  between  the  projections  in  the  2023  Stability  or  Convergence  Programmes  and  the 
Commission  2023  spring  forecast  may  result  from  different  assumptions/analyses  on  the 
macroeconomic and budgetary outlook. 

Given  that  Denmark  did  not  submit  its  2023  Convergence  Programme  in  a  timely  manner,  the 
Commission  was  not  able  to  assess  it.  Therefore,  the  Fiscal  Statistical  Tables  for  Denmark  are 
strictly based on the Commission 2023 spring forecast. 

2 

 
Box 1: 

Fiscal surveillance indicators used in the assessment of the 
2023 Stability or Convergence Programmes 

Definition of fiscal stance and its components 

Traditionally, the fiscal stance is defined as a  measure of the  annual change in the  underlying 
budgetary position of the general government. It may serve to assess the impact of fiscal policy 
on  an  economy’s  aggregate  demand,  as  well  as  the  speed  at  which  the  underlying  budgetary 
position converges towards medium-term budgetary targets. Using the same indicator to gauge 
two different concepts was appropriate under the assumption that government expenditure was 
funded  by  national  revenue  sources  and  debt-financing,  without  large  external  transfers. 
However,  in  the  presence  of  sizeable  transfers  from  the  EU  budget  (such  as  those  from  the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility or other EU grants), conventional indicators do not capture the 
additional  fiscal  impulse  provided  by  the  EU  budget,  as  the  related  expenditure  is  offset  by 
matching revenue from the EU. 

The  fiscal  stance  reported  in  Table  3  for  each  Member  State  aims  to  assess  the  economic 
impulse  stemming  from  fiscal  policies,  both  those  that  are  nationally  financed  and  those  that 
are  financed  by  the  EU  budget.  It  measures  the  change  in  primary  expenditure,  net  of  the 
incremental  impact  of  discretionary  revenue  measures,  excluding  cyclical  unemployment 
expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by Recovery and Resilience Facility 
grants and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential GDP growth 
rate, in nominal terms. 

Fiscal Stancet=

(1+Pott)∙(1+πt)∙Et-1-(Et-∆RMt)
GDPt

Where  ‘Pott’  is  the  medium-term  (10-year)  average  potential  GDP  growth  rate,  ‘πt’  is  the  GDP 
G), in a given year ‘t’. 
deflator, and Et=Gt-It-Ut- one_offst

G-(pandemic-related emergency temporary measurest

The expenditure aggregate ‘Et’ comprises primary expenditure (total expenditure ‘Gt’ less interest 
G’, in 
expenditure ‘It’), net of cyclical unemployment benefits ‘Ut’ and one-off expenditure ‘one_offst
a given year ‘t’. In turn, ‘∆RMt’ stands for the incremental budgetary impact of revenue measures 
(other than one-off revenue), in a given year ‘t’. In view of the exceptional circumstances created 
by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic-related temporary emergency measures are 
also excluded from both the expenditure aggregate ‘Et’ and the incremental budgetary impact of 
revenue measures ‘∆RMt’. (1) 

In  order  to  monitor  compliance  with  the  Council  recommendations,  the  Commission  also 
examines  whether  the  projected  evolution  of  net  nationally  financed  primary  expenditure  is 
expected to be the result of continued temporary and targeted support to households and firms 
most  vulnerable  to  energy  price  hikes  and  to  people  fleeing  Ukraine.  Therefore,  Table  3  also 
presents  the  change  in  the  net  budgetary  cost (2)  of:  (i)  energy  measures  in  response  to  high 
energy prices; (ii) energy support measures targeted at vulnerable households and firms; and, (iii) 
support to persons fleeing Ukraine. (3) 

(1)  COVID-19 pandemic-related emergency measures generally aimed at addressing the public health situation and 

compensating workers and firms for income losses due to lockdown measures and supply chain disruptions. These 
measures were mostly of a temporary nature, but their impact was contingent on the development of the health situation. 

(2)  This includes the budgetary cost of energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits 

by energy producers. 

(3)  With regard to the change in the budgetary cost of the sets of measures referred to in categories (ii) and (iii), Table 3 

reports the corresponding impact on the change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure. 

3 

 
 
                                                 
 
 
Box 1 (cont.): 

Furthermore,  Table  3  also  monitors  the  growth  rate  of  net  nationally  financed  primary 
expenditure ‘∆NNPEt’. That aggregate is very similar to the one used for the fiscal stance, but  it 
excludes expenditure financed by the EU budget. As a rule, in a given year ‘t’, the net nationally 
financed primary expenditure aggregate ‘NNPEt’ is calculated as: 

NNPEt=Et-∆RMt=Gt-It-Ut-EUt-oneoffst

G-∆RMt 

Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 2024 

When  setting  the  recommended  fiscal  adjustment  – which,  in  the  2023  spring  economic 
surveillance  round,  is  established  as  a  growth  rate  of  net  nationally  financed  primary 
expenditure –  the  Commission  started  from  an  annual  improvement  in  the  structural  balance 
towards  the  medium-term  budgetary  objective  (MTO)  of  0.5%  of  GDP  – as  a  benchmark –  as 
called  for  by  Council  Regulation  (EC)  No  1466/97. (4)  This  effort  was  modulated  within  a 
bandwidth  of  +/- 0.2  percentage  points  of  GDP  (hence,  within  a  window  of  minimum  0.3  and 
maximum  0.7%  of  GDP)  based  on  fiscal  sustainability  considerations.  In  particular,  the 
Commission  took  into  account  the  average  annual  increase  in  the  structural  (primary)  balance 
needed to achieve a plausible debt reduction or ensure that government debt remains at prudent 
levels over the medium term. (5) 

In addition, for Member States whose structural balance in 2023 is projected to reach a position 
at  or  above  the  MTO,  no  fiscal  adjustment  was  recommended  for  2024.  In  turn,  for  Member 
States whose structural balance is expected to be below  – but close to – the MTO in 2023, the 
recommended  fiscal  adjustment  for  2024  was  capped  to  the  projected  distance  to  the  MTO. 
Finally,  where  applicable,  the  Commission  also  took  into  consideration  the  need  for  Member 
States to reduce the  general government deficit to below the  Treaty reference value  of 3% of 
GDP. In those cases, a minimum improvement in the structural balance of 0.5% of GDP towards 
the MTO was set for 2024. 

*

The  resulting  fiscal  adjustment  for  2024  – expressed  in  terms  of  an  improvement  in  the 
’ – was then translated into an improvement in the structural primary 
structural balance ‘∆SB2024
balance  ‘∆SPB2024
’,  taking  into  consideration  interest  expenditure  developments  ‘∆I2024’  as 
projected  based  on  the  Commission  2023  spring  forecast.  Subsequently,  the  resulting  fiscal 
effort  was  converted  into  a  (maximum)  growth  rate  in  net  nationally  financed  primary 
expenditure ‘∆NNPE2024

’, on which basis the recommendation was ultimately established: 

*

*

*

∆NNPE2024

=(1+Pot2024)∙(1+π2024)-

*
∆SPB2024
NNPE2023
GDP2024

∙100

-1 

Where  ‘NNPE2023’  is  nationally  financed  primary  expenditure  (net  of  one-off  expenditure  and 
cyclical unemployment expenditure), and SPB2024

 = ∆SB2024

+ ∆I2024. 

*

*

(4)  Cf. Article 5 of Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97, which also requires an adjustment of more than 0.5% of GDP for 
Member States with a government debt exceeding 60% of GDP, or with more pronounced debt sustainability risks. 

(5)  This estimate was based on the Commission 2022 autumn forecast. The starting point for this estimate was the projected 
general government deficit and debt for 2024, which assumed the withdrawal of energy support measures in 2024. 

4 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                 
 
Box 2: 

Statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows 

Eurostat  has  issued  guidance  on  the  statistical  recording  of  flows related  to  the  Recovery  and 
Resilience Facility (RRF). (6) In this context, please note the following fundamental principles for 
the statistical recording of RRF-related flows: 

  RRF grants are recorded by matching the time of recording of revenue from the EU 
with the time of recording of expenditure financed by these grants. This is irrespective 
of the timing of disbursements or pre-financing. This approach is by analogy to the recording 
of  the  traditional  EU-fund  related  flows  and  it  is  often  referred  to  as  the  'principle  of 
neutrality  of  EU  flows'.  It  ensures  that  timing  differences  - leads  or  lags -  between 
disbursements and concrete spending do not have an effect on the government balance. This 
principle is well established, including in the ESA 2010 Regulation. 

  The  government  sector  is  the  counterpart  of  the RRF  grants.  While  some  RRF  grants 
may  ultimately  be  channelled  to  non-governmental  entities  in  the  form  of  subsidies  and/or 
transfers, the RRF Regulation establishes that the financing applies at the level of payments 
from the Commission to the Member States as beneficiaries, irrespective of the further use of 
the  RRF  funds.  This  is  somewhat  different  from  the  statistical  recording  of  other  EU  fund-
related  flows,  where  the  beneficiary,  for  national  accounts  purposes,  can  be  either  the 
government or a non-governmental entity. 

  Loans extended by the RRF to the Member States add to their government's debt. At 
the same time, borrowing taken out by the Commission to finance RRF grants is considered as 
EU debt and, therefore, it is not attributed to the Member States. 

In the Fiscal Statistical Tables, these fundamental principles underly the statistical reporting of 
RRF-related  flows  as  presented  in  Table  2  (General  government  budgetary  position),  Table  3 
(Main indicators for fiscal surveillance), Table 5 (Recovery and Resilience Facility – Grants), and, 
where applicable, also in Table 6 (Recovery and Resilience Facility – Loans). 

(6)  ‘Guidance note on the statistical recording of the Recovery and Resilience Facility’, Eurostat, September 2021. 

5 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                 
 
7 

12 

17 

22 

26 

31 

36 

41 

47 

52 

57 

63 

69 

75 

80 

85 

90 

96 

101 

106 

111 

117 

123 

129 

135 

140 

145 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1. 

2. 

3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

8. 

9. 

Belgium 

Bulgaria 

Czechia 

Denmark 

Germany 

Estonia 

Ireland 

Greece 

Spain 

10.  France 

11.  Croatia 

12. 

Italy 

13.  Cyprus 

14.  Latvia 

15.  Lithuania 

16.  Luxembourg 

17.  Hungary 

18.  Malta 

19.  The Netherlands 

20.  Austria 

21.  Poland 

22.  Portugal 

23.  Romania 

24.  Slovenia 

25.  Slovakia 

26.  Finland 

27.  Sweden 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
1. BELGIUM 

Table 1.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

7 

20252026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)3.23.21.01.21.71.41.31.42Private consumption4.14.11.62.61.91.71.71.33Gross fixed capital formation-0.8-0.80.80.72.82.01.61.74Exports of goods and services5.15.12.31.32.52.53.33.45Imports of goods and services4.94.92.51.62.62.73.33.3Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand2.02.61.31.61.91.51.51.57- Change in inventories0.80.60.0-0.10.00.00.00.08- Net exports0.20.2-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.19Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)0.0-0.6-0.4-0.4-0.410Output gap, as recalculated10.5-0.10.1-0.10.011Employment (% change)2.02.00.70.60.80.90.60.712Unemployment rate (%)5.65.65.75.85.55.75.45.413Labour productivity (% change)1.11.20.30.60.90.50.70.614HICP inflation (% change)9.610.34.53.42.93.51.81.715GDP deflator5.95.93.43.82.32.31.91.716Comp. of employees (per head, % change)7.37.28.09.03.93.42.82.317Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world(% of GDP)-3.5-2.8-2.0-1.6-1.1-1.6-0.20.30.50.0-0.2#Variables202220232024 
 
 
      
 
 
Table 1.2:  General government budgetary position 

Belgium 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

8 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)49.749.751.150.251.250.551.851.92.2of which:2- Taxes on production and imports12.612.713.313.213.113.113.113.00.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.16.516.516.916.417.116.517.617.81.34- Social contributions15.115.215.515.415.815.715.915.90.85- Other (residual)5.45.35.55.25.35.25.35.2-0.26RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.20.20.20.20.10.10.07Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)53.553.556.255.255.455.255.154.81.3of which:9- Primary expenditure52.052.054.453.453.553.252.952.50.4of which:10- Compensation of employees12.412.413.112.913.012.912.812.60.211- Intermediate consumption4.34.34.24.24.04.03.93.8-0.612- Social payments25.725.726.826.526.826.726.826.71.013- Subsidies3.73.73.83.73.73.63.73.6-0.114- Gross fixed capital formation2.72.72.92.93.13.13.03.00.415- Other (residual)3.23.23.63.32.92.92.82.7-0.516- Interest expenditure1.51.51.71.72.02.02.22.40.917=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.20.10.20.20.20.20.20.0-0.118=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-3.9-3.9-5.1-5.0-4.2-4.7-3.3-2.90.919=1-9Primary balance-2.4-2.4-3.3-3.3-2.2-2.8-1.2-0.51.820Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-3.9-4.2-4.7-5.0-4.0-4.6-3.1-2.71.221=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-2.4-2.6-3.0-3.3-2.0-2.7-0.9-0.32.122One-off measures (% of GDP)0.20.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.20.00.0-0.223=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-4.1-4.2-4.6-4.9-3.8-4.5-3.0-2.71.424=23+16Structural primary balance-2.5-2.7-2.8-3.1-1.9-2.5-0.9-0.32.3202220232024#Variables 
      
 
 
Table 1.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Belgium 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

9 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.0.6-0.5-0.70.80.42Change in the structural primary balancen.a.0.4-0.3-0.51.00.6Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)2.7-0.70.72.0-4.90.75No5.6-2.5-0.50.00.2-0.1-0.10.10.00.00.8-0.5-0.40.0-0.1-0.20.0-0.10.0-1.9-0.70.80.0-0.10.0-1.9-1.00.6-2.0-1.10.6COMCOMCOM202220232024#Variables 
  
 
 
Table 1.4:  General government debt developments 

Belgium 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

10 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)104.1105.1105.1106.7106.0107.1107.3107.6107.82=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.8-4.0-4.01.50.80.41.40.50.2Contributions2:3Primary balance1.62.42.43.33.32.22.81.20.54=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.2-7.8-7.8-2.7-3.3-2.2-1.8-1.1-0.8of which:5- Interest expenditure2.01.51.51.71.72.02.02.22.46- Growth effect-1.3-3.2-3.2-1.0-1.2-1.7-1.4-1.4-1.47- Inflation effect-1.9-5.9-5.9-3.4-3.8-2.4-2.4-1.9-1.78'Stock-flow' adjustment0.51.41.40.90.90.40.40.50.4202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 1.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Belgium 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

11 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.10.10.20.20.10.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.20.00.10.30.10.1#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumption0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Social payments0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Interest expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Subsidies, payable0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06Current transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.10.10.10.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.10.00.00.00.09Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.10.10.10.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
      
 
2. BULGARIA 

Table 2.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

12 

20252026CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)3.43.41.81.53.32.43.23.02Private consumption4.84.83.23.64.31.54.03.83Gross fixed capital formation-4.3-4.36.32.212.63.36.54.84Exports of goods and services8.38.31.72.64.33.24.74.35Imports of goods and services10.510.53.92.96.42.85.45.0Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand3.33.33.33.24.52.23.73.47- Change in inventories1.31.30.0-1.50.00.00.00.08- Net exports-1.2-1.2-1.5-0.2-1.30.3-0.5-0.59Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)0.90.20.50.80.910Output gap, as recalculated11.2-0.10.30.71.111Employment (% change)1.31.30.40.30.70.30.50.312Unemployment rate (%)4.34.34.14.33.94.03.83.813Labour productivity (% change)2.12.11.41.22.52.12.72.714HICP inflation (% change)13.013.08.79.43.84.22.82.215GDP deflator15.115.19.510.43.73.93.12.816Comp. of employees (per head, % change)18.418.411.513.510.69.17.77.117Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)0.30.51.02.40.92.5-0.30.0202220232024#Variables1.40.40.7 
 
 
       
 
 
Table 2.2:  General government budgetary position 

Bulgaria 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

13 

20252026Change: 2022-2026CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)38.538.535.537.436.237.435.434.3-4.2of which:2- Taxes on production and imports15.815.814.513.814.313.614.113.9-1.93- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.46.46.36.66.66.76.66.50.14- Social contributions8.48.48.48.78.69.18.68.80.45- Other (residual)7.97.96.38.26.77.96.15.1-2.86RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.30.51.31.41.10.50.47Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)41.341.341.642.240.942.240.439.4-1.9of which:9- Primary expenditure40.840.941.041.739.941.639.137.7-3.1of which:10- Compensation of employees10.010.09.910.39.710.79.59.3-0.711- Intermediate consumption5.35.35.95.34.85.44.24.3-1.012- Social payments14.914.915.716.316.317.216.616.71.813- Subsidies5.15.13.22.82.02.01.91.8-3.314- Gross fixed capital formation3.03.04.03.84.63.04.73.50.515- Other (residual)2.52.52.33.22.53.32.22.1-0.416- Interest expenditure0.50.50.60.51.00.61.31.71.217=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.00.30.51.31.41.10.40.418=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-2.8-2.8-6.1-4.8-4.7-4.8-4.9-5.0-2.219=1-9Primary balance-2.3-2.3-5.5-4.3-3.6-4.2-3.7-3.4-1.120Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-3.1-3.2-6.2-5.0-4.8-5.0-5.2-5.3-2.221=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-2.6-2.8-5.6-4.4-3.8-4.4-3.9-3.7-1.122One-off measures (% of GDP)-1.80.0-0.40.00.00.00.00.01.823=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-1.3-3.2-5.8-5.0-4.8-5.0-5.2-5.3-4.024=23+16Structural primary balance-0.8-2.8-5.2-4.4-3.8-4.4-3.9-3.6-2.8202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
Table 2.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Bulgaria 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

14 

CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.0.7-4.5-1.71.0-0.12Change in the structural primary balancen.a.0.7-4.4-1.71.40.0Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#VariablesCOMCOMCOM-1.2-3.10.30.1-1.10.0-1.3-2.00.3-0.8-1.9-0.5-0.5-0.10.70.00.10.00.9-0.7-0.70.00.00.00.10.00.0-2.7-1.00.0-5.0-1.0No4.00.54.65.4-0.8 
  
 
 
Table 2.4:  General government debt developments 

Bulgaria 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

15 

Average202520262017-2021CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)23.122.922.926.625.030.728.133.837.12=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-1.0-1.0-1.13.72.14.13.03.13.3Contributions2:3Primary balance-0.22.32.35.54.33.64.23.73.44=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.2-3.3-3.4-1.8-1.9-0.7-0.9-0.6-0.3of which:5- Interest expenditure0.60.40.50.60.51.00.61.31.66- Growth effect-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.3-0.8-0.6-0.9-1.07- Inflation effect-1.1-3.0-3.0-2.0-2.1-0.9-0.9-0.9-0.98'Stock-flow' adjustment0.3n.a.0.0n.a.-0.2n.a.-0.3n.a.n.a.202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Bulgaria 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Convergence Programme. 

16 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.00.31.31.10.52Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.01.60.01.51.71.4#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumption0.00.00.00.00.10.10.03Social payments0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Interest expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Subsidies, payable0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06Current transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.10.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.31.21.00.49Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.31.21.00.4#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
      
 
3. CZECHIA 

Table 3.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

17 

20252026CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)2.52.50.10.23.02.62.92.52Private consumption-0.9-0.9-2.7-2.23.93.34.03.03Gross fixed capital formation6.26.22.82.80.52.72.22.44Exports of goods and services5.75.74.15.14.74.43.22.95Imports of goods and services5.75.73.04.52.84.21.81.9Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand1.31.3-0.10.12.22.52.72.47- Change in inventories1.01.0-0.5-0.3-0.7-0.2-0.8-0.78- Net exports0.20.20.80.41.40.21.00.89Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)0.0-1.8-1.2-0.4-0.110Output gap, as recalculated1-1.2-2.7-1.6-0.9-0.211Employment (% change)1.71.7-0.40.70.50.60.20.112Unemployment rate (%)2.32.23.02.82.82.62.72.713Labour productivity (% change)0.70.70.5-0.52.42.12.82.414HICP inflation (% change)14.814.812.211.92.63.42.22.015GDP deflator8.68.69.911.33.85.52.82.216Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.55.57.97.35.36.64.34.317Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-4.9-4.0-2.0-1.3-0.30.40.61.0-1.1-2.3-1.3#Variables202220232024 
 
 
        
 
 
Table 3.2:  General government budgetary position 

Czechia 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

18 

20252026Change: 2022-2026CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)41.041.041.140.739.639.239.038.5-2.5of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.311.310.810.710.810.610.810.8-0.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.47.47.87.97.67.67.57.3-0.14- Social contributions16.016.015.615.515.515.315.215.1-0.85- Other (residual)6.26.26.96.65.85.65.45.2-1.06RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.40.40.40.40.50.50.50.40.07Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)44.644.644.744.342.642.141.440.6-3.9of which:9- Primary expenditure43.443.443.443.041.340.840.139.3-4.2of which:10- Compensation of employees10.210.29.99.89.79.79.59.3-0.811- Intermediate consumption5.85.85.85.75.65.75.55.5-0.312- Social payments17.217.217.517.216.916.816.416.0-1.213- Subsidies2.32.32.73.01.91.81.81.6-0.614- Gross fixed capital formation4.64.64.94.74.44.34.34.1-0.515- Other (residual)3.43.42.72.62.82.62.72.7-0.816- Interest expenditure1.21.21.21.31.31.31.31.40.217=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.40.40.40.40.50.50.50.40.018=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-3.6-3.6-3.5-3.6-2.9-3.0-2.4-2.21.419=1-9Primary balance-2.5-2.5-2.3-2.3-1.7-1.6-1.2-0.81.720Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-3.6-3.2-2.9-2.7-2.5-2.4-2.3-2.21.521=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-2.5-2.1-1.7-1.4-1.3-1.1-1.0-0.81.722One-off measures (% of GDP)-0.90.0-1.30.00.00.00.00.00.923=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-2.8-3.2-1.6-2.7-2.6-2.4-2.3-2.20.624=23+16Structural primary balance-1.6-2.1-0.4-1.4-1.3-1.1-1.1-0.80.8202220232024#Variables 
        
 
 
Table 3.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Czechia 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

19 

CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.1.31.10.5-0.90.32Change in the structural primary balancen.a.1.71.20.7-0.90.3Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)3.03.00.56.0-2.7-0.75No2.0-1.9-0.10.00.2-0.10.00.3-0.1-0.10.60.6-1.30.00.50.1-0.40.10.00.31.21.5-0.1-0.40.3-0.11.81.6-0.11.41.9COMCOMCOM202220232024#Variables 
  
 
 
Table 3.4:  General government debt developments 

Czechia 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

20 

Average202520262017-2021CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)35.244.144.143.542.944.043.144.445.02=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)1.12.12.1-0.6-1.20.50.20.50.5Contributions2:3Primary balance0.92.52.52.32.31.71.61.20.84=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.9-3.1-3.1-2.8-3.2-1.5-2.0-1.1-0.6of which:5- Interest expenditure0.71.21.21.21.31.31.31.31.46- Growth effect-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.1-0.1-1.2-1.0-1.2-1.17- Inflation effect-1.0-3.2-3.2-4.0-4.5-1.5-2.2-1.2-0.98'Stock-flow' adjustment1.12.72.7-0.2-0.30.40.50.40.4202220232024#Variables 
      
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 3.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Czechia 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Convergence Programme. 

21 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.40.40.50.50.42Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.40.00.3n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.20.10.10.18Gross fixed capital formation0.00.20.30.20.40.40.39Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.20.30.20.40.40.3#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
4. DENMARK 

Table 4.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM). 

22 

1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)3.80.31.52Private consumption-2.30.11.33Gross fixed capital formation8.6-3.5-0.34Exports of goods and services8.61.11.45Imports of goods and services4.2-1.00.6Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand0.1-0.80.87- Change in inventories0.8-0.20.28- Net exports2.91.30.69Output gap (% of potential GDP)10Employment (% change)3.9-0.3-0.211Unemployment rate (%)4.55.05.112Labour productivity (% change)0.00.71.713HICP inflation (% change)8.54.32.514GDP deflator7.60.22.115Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.94.95.316Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)13.310.910.9202220232024#VariablesCOM0.3-1.2-1.3 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 4.2:  General government budgetary position 

Denmark 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM). 

23 

1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)48.649.048.1of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.414.413.93- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.27.728.127.74- Social contributions0.70.70.75- Other (residual)5.85.85.96RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.20.00.07Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.10.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)45.346.746.8of which:9- Primary expenditure44.546.146.3of which:10- Compensation of employees13.714.514.711- Intermediate consumption8.08.18.012- Social payments15.115.415.313- Subsidies1.41.41.414- Gross fixed capital formation3.13.33.215- Other (residual)3.33.53.616- Interest expenditure0.70.60.517=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.00.018=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)3.32.31.319=1-9Primary balance4.12.91.820Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)3.13.02.121=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance3.93.62.622One-off measures (% of GDP)0.0-0.50.023=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)3.13.52.124=23+16Structural primary balance3.94.12.6COM202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
Table 4.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Denmark 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM). 

24 

Balance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)-1.30.4-1.42Change in the structural primary balance-1.10.2-1.5Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#Variables0.6-0.4-0.50.00.00.00.7-0.4-0.40.7-0.60.30.2-0.10.0-0.30.2-0.70.10.2-0.30.10.0-0.10.00.00.0-0.5Yesn.a.-4.0n.a.0.0COM4.6n.a.na.na.3.5 
  
 
 
Table 4.4:  General government debt developments 

Denmark 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM). 

25 

Average2017-20211Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)36.530.130.128.82=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-0.1-6.60.1-1.4Contributions2:3Primary balance-2.8-4.1-2.9-1.84=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.6-3.10.4-0.5of which:5- Interest expenditure0.70.70.60.56- Growth effect-0.7-1.3-0.1-0.47- Inflation effect-0.6-2.5-0.1-0.68'Stock-flow' adjustment3.30.62.51.0COM202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5. GERMANY 

Table 5.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

26 

202520262027SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)1.81.80.20.21.81.40.90.90.92Private consumption4.34.3-0.20.01.61.80.90.90.93Gross fixed capital formation0.40.40.0-0.72.82.01.41.41.44Exports of goods and services2.92.92.21.53.33.13.23.23.25Imports of goods and services6.06.01.60.43.23.43.43.43.4Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand2.62.5-0.2-0.21.61.70.90.90.97- Change in inventories0.40.40.0-0.10.0-0.30.00.00.08- Net exports-1.2-1.10.40.50.10.00.00.00.09Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)-0.3-1.1-0.3-0.2-0.10.010Output gap, as recalculated1-0.2-0.7-0.1-0.1-0.10.011Employment (% change)1.31.30.30.60.20.2-0.2-0.2-0.212Unemployment rate (%)2.83.12.83.22.73.13.13.33.513Labour productivity (% change)0.50.5-0.2-0.41.51.21.11.11.114HICP inflation (% change)n.a.8.7n.a.6.8n.a.2.7n.a.n.a.n.a.15GDP deflator5.55.55.96.12.72.42.02.02.016Comp. of employees (per head, % change)4.24.25.15.54.75.33.13.13.217Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)3.43.44.95.25.35.15.25.04.9202220232024#Variables-0.2-0.6-0.3 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 5.2:  General government budgetary position 

Germany 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

27 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)47.147.145 ¾46.04646.546 ½46 ¾- ½of which:2- Taxes on production and imports10.910.910 ¾10.710 ¾10.910 ¾1103- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.13.613.61313.01312.913 ¼13 ½- ¼4- Social contributions17.217.217 ¼17.117 ½17.417 ½17 ½½5- Other (residual)5.35.355.255.354 ¾- ½6RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.1-0.17Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)49.749.75048.347 ¾47.747 ¼47 ¼-2 ½of which:9- Primary expenditure49.049.049 ¼47.546 ¾46.846 ¼46-3of which:10- Compensation of employees7.97.97 ¾7.87 ¾7.97 ¾7 ¾- ¼11- Intermediate consumption6.16.15 ¾5.75 ¾5.75 ½5 ¼- ¾12- Social payments25.225.224 ¾24.824 ¾24.92525 ¼013- Subsidies1.91.93 ¾2.21 ¾1.31 ½1 ¼- ½14- Gross fixed capital formation2.62.62 ½2.72 ½2.92 ¾2 ¾015- Other (residual)5.35.34 ¾4.24 ¼4.144-1 ¼16- Interest expenditure0.70.7¾0.810.911 ¼½17=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.0-0.118=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.6-4 ¼-2.3-1 ¾-1.2- ¾- ¾219=1-9Primary balance-1.9-1.9-3 ½-1.5- ¾-0.3¼½2 ½20Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-2.4-2.5-3 ½-2.0-1 ½-1.0- ¾- ¾1 ¾21=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-1.8-1.8-2 ¾-1.2- ½-0.1½½2 ½22One-off measures (% of GDP)-0.7-0.2- ¼0.000.000¾23=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-1.8-2.3-3 ¼-2.0-1 ½-1.0- ¾- ¾124=23+16Structural primary balance-1.1-1.6-2 ½-1.2- ½-0.1¼½1 ¾202220232024#Variables 
     
 
 
Table 5.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Germany 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

28 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.0.6-1 ½0.31 ¾0.92Change in the structural primary balancen.a.0.7-1 ½0.421.0Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#VariablesCOMCOMCOM-2.70.50.40.10.00.0-2.80.50.4-2.40.30.60.00.0-0.2-0.40.30.01.20.7-1.60.30.2-0.30.10.0-0.1-3.4-0.80.00.32.5-2.0-0.5No1.52.40.1 
  
 
 
Table 5.4:  General government debt developments 

Germany 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

29 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)64.766.366.367 ¾65.266 ½64.166 ¼65 ½2=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.1-3.0-3.01 ½-1.0-1 ¼-1.2- ½- ¾Contributions2:3Primary balance-0.11.91.93 ½1.5¾0.3- ¼- ½4=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.0n.a.-4.1n.a.-3.1n.a.-1.5n.a.n.a.of which:5- Interest expenditure0.80.70.7¾0.810.911 ¼6- Growth effect-0.5n.a.-1.2n.a.-0.1n.a.-0.9n.a.n.a.7- Inflation effect-1.3n.a.-3.5n.a.-3.8n.a.-1.5n.a.n.a.8'Stock-flow' adjustment1.2-5.6-0.8-2 ¾0.6-2 ¾0.0-1 ¼-1 ½202220232024#Variables 
       
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 5.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Germany 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

30 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.10.10.10.10.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.10.00.30.10.10.1#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.10.10.00.00.00.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Capital transfers0.00.10.10.10.10.10.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.10.10.10.10.10.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
6. ESTONIA 

Table 6.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

31 

202520262027SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)-1.3-1.3-1.5-0.43.03.12.52.32.02Private consumption2.62.3-1.10.32.44.21.52.41.83Gross fixed capital formation-10.9-10.95.71.83.84.23.41.51.44Exports of goods and services5.05.0-1.00.93.22.83.63.23.05Imports of goods and services5.85.8-1.41.81.93.23.02.52.4Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand1.3-2.1-1.91.41.83.31.91.71.47- Change in inventoriesn.a.3.2n.a.-1.0n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.8- Net exports-0.9-0.70.4-0.81.1-0.30.50.60.69Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)-0.9-4.9-3.4-2.1-1.1-0.510Output gap, as recalculated1-1.6-4.2-2.8-1.6-0.40.611Employment (% change)4.14.60.30.20.60.40.30.00.012Unemployment rate (%)5.65.67.46.27.26.16.96.66.513Labour productivity (% change)-5.2-5.6-1.8-0.62.42.72.22.22.014HICP inflation (% change)19.419.49.39.23.12.82.21.42.015GDP deflator16.616.67.610.32.63.62.11.92.016Comp. of employees (per head, % change)8.98.39.010.35.74.84.14.34.217Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-1.7-0.2-0.30.60.61.01.01.51.9-1.9-4.0-2.8#Variables202220232024 
 
 
       
 
 
Table 6.2:  General government budgetary position 

Estonia 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

32 

202520262027Change: 2022-2027SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)38.538.538.638.437.737.637.636.936.3-2.2of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.213.213.513.313.313.313.112.812.7-0.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.97.97.77.47.47.27.47.57.5-0.44- Social contributions11.711.712.011.612.011.512.012.012.00.35- Other (residual)5.75.75.46.15.05.65.14.64.1-1.66RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.40.10.50.70.70.70.50.2n.a.n.a.7Revenue reductions financed by RRF grantsn.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)39.439.442.941.541.940.341.641.440.61.2of which:9- Primary expenditure39.339.442.441.041.339.740.940.539.60.3of which:10- Compensation of employees10.410.411.411.011.110.811.010.910.60.211- Intermediate consumption6.46.47.06.87.16.36.76.35.9-0.512- Social payments13.813.814.814.415.014.615.315.515.71.913- Subsidies0.70.70.80.80.50.50.40.40.4-0.314- Gross fixed capital formation5.25.25.55.05.34.85.15.34.9-0.315- Other (residual)2.82.82.93.02.32.72.42.12.1-0.716- Interest expenditure0.10.10.50.40.60.60.70.91.00.917=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.10.50.50.70.70.50.1n.a.n.a.18=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-0.9-0.9-4.3-3.1-4.2-2.7-4.0-4.5-4.2-3.319=1-9Primary balance-0.8-0.8-3.9-2.7-3.6-2.1-3.3-3.6-3.2-2.420Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-0.50.0-2.0-1.2-2.6-1.3-3.0-3.9-4.0-3.521=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-0.40.1-1.5-0.7-2.0-0.7-2.3-3.1-3.0-2.622One-off measures (% of GDP)0.20.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.223=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-0.7-0.2-2.0-1.2-2.6-1.3-3.0-3.9-4.0-3.324=23+16Structural primary balance-0.6-0.1-1.5-0.7-2.0-0.7-2.3-3.0-3.0-2.4202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
Table 6.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Estonia 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

33 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.4.1-1.3-1.0-0.6-0.22Change in the structural primary balancen.a.4.2-0.9-0.6-0.50.0Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)4.50.50.34.9-1.2-0.5No0.7-2.3n.a.0.00.1-0.10.00.60.1-0.10.7-0.6-0.30.60.30.0-0.40.30.30.8-1.20.40.2-0.30.21.0-0.50.61.3-0.80.9COMCOMCOM202220232024#Variables 
  
 
 
Table 6.4:  General government debt developments 

Estonia 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

34 

Average2025202620272017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)12.418.418.420.219.523.621.327.130.433.02=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)1.50.80.81.81.13.41.73.53.32.6Contributions2:3Primary balance1.70.80.83.92.73.62.13.33.63.24=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.8-2.2-2.2-0.6-1.2-0.5-0.7-0.4-0.2-0.2of which:5- Interest expenditure0.00.10.10.50.40.60.60.70.91.06- Growth effect-0.50.20.20.30.1-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.67- Inflation effect-0.4-2.5-2.5-1.3-1.7-0.5-0.7-0.5-0.5-0.68'Stock-flow' adjustment0.62.22.2-1.5-0.30.30.30.6-0.1-0.5202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 6.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Estonia 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

35 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.40.50.70.50.22Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.40.01.00.30.30.3#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expendituren.a.0.00.00.10.10.10.08Gross fixed capital formationn.a.0.00.00.20.20.10.09Capital transfersn.a.0.00.00.20.40.30.110=8+9Total capital expendituren.a.0.00.10.40.60.40.1#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
          
 
7. IRELAND 

Table 7.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

36 

2025202620272028SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)12.012.05.65.54.15.04.94.43.83.82Private consumption6.66.63.94.13.83.93.43.43.12.93Gross fixed capital formation25.925.92.41.83.32.83.84.44.54.44Exports of goods and services15.015.07.86.74.95.55.44.74.04.05Imports of goods and services19.019.06.45.54.34.54.44.13.53.5Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand7.87.81.71.41.81.62.02.01.91.97- Change in inventories1.01.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08- Net exports2.12.14.33.72.63.13.22.62.12.19Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)3.02.30.90.60.3n.a.n.a.10Output gap, as recalculated14.63.41.40.90.50.0-0.211Employment (% change)6.66.61.62.41.40.91.51.61.00.612Unemployment rate (%)4.54.54.44.34.54.34.54.54.64.713Labour productivity (% change)5.05.04.03.02.74.03.42.82.83.214HICP inflation (% change)8.18.14.94.62.52.62.02.02.02.015GDP deflator5.35.34.04.62.32.52.22.22.12.016Comp. of employees (per head, % change)4.24.25.65.65.05.84.84.33.93.717Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)8.87.211.19.411.610.012.312.512.512.54.63.32.3#Variables202220232024 
 
 
       
 
 
Table 7.2:  General government budgetary position 

Ireland 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

37 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)23.023.022.422.122.021.621.421.2-1.8of which:2- Taxes on production and imports6.36.36.06.16.16.06.05.9-0.43- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.11.311.311.010.710.810.410.510.5-0.84- Social contributions3.93.93.83.93.93.83.83.7-0.25- Other (residual)1.51.51.51.41.21.31.11.1-0.46RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.07Revenue reductions financed by RRF grantsn.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.8=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)21.421.420.620.419.219.418.618.1-3.3of which:9- Primary expenditure20.720.719.919.818.618.818.017.6-3.2of which:10- Compensation of employees5.75.75.45.55.25.25.15.0-0.811- Intermediate consumption3.63.63.33.33.13.12.92.9-0.712- Social payments7.47.47.07.16.56.76.36.1-1.313- Subsidies0.70.70.50.50.40.40.30.3-0.314- Gross fixed capital formation2.02.02.02.02.12.02.12.10.115- Other (residual)1.41.41.71.51.31.41.31.2-0.216- Interest expenditure0.70.70.60.60.60.60.50.5-0.117=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.018=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)1.61.61.81.72.82.22.93.11.519=1-9Primary balance2.32.22.42.33.32.83.43.61.420Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)0.0-0.80.6-0.12.31.02.63.02.921=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance0.7-0.11.20.52.91.63.13.52.822One-off measures (% of GDP)0.40.01.00.01.90.01.81.81.423=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-0.4-0.8-0.4-0.10.41.00.81.11.524=23+16Structural primary balance0.3-0.10.30.51.01.61.31.61.3202220232024#Variables 
      
 
 
Table 7.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Ireland 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

38 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.0.90.00.70.71.12Change in the structural primary balancen.a.0.80.00.70.71.1Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)1.9n.a.na.na.-0.1-0.5Yesn.a.-2.1-0.70.00.2-0.1-0.10.10.1-0.10.5-0.1-0.3-0.10.00.10.0-0.10.1-0.20.31.30.10.00.0-0.30.21.4-0.20.21.4COMCOMCOM202220232024#Variables 
  
 
 
Table 7.4:  General government debt developments 

Ireland 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

39 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)60.344.744.740.540.438.238.335.032.02=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-3.8-10.7-10.7-4.2-4.3-2.3-2.2-3.2-3.0Contributions2:3Primary balance-0.1-2.3-2.2-2.4-2.3-3.3-2.8-3.4-3.64=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-4.3-7.8-7.8-3.4-3.6-1.9-2.3-2.0-1.7of which:5- Interest expenditure1.30.70.70.60.60.60.60.50.56- Growth effect-5.0-5.6-5.6-2.3-2.2-1.6-1.9-1.7-1.47- Inflation effect-0.6-2.5-2.5-1.6-1.9-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.78'Stock-flow' adjustment0.6-0.7-0.71.61.62.92.92.22.3202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 7.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Ireland 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

40 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.00.00.10.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumption0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Social payments0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Interest expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Subsidies, payable0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06Current transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
        
 
8. GREECE 

Table 8.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

41 

20252026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)5.95.92.32.43.01.93.02.12Private consumption7.87.81.21.62.01.42.01.33Gross fixed capital formation11.711.713.27.29.76.010.77.24Exports of goods and services4.94.92.36.56.25.25.34.55Imports of goods and services10.210.22.64.74.43.84.83.8Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand6.56.52.62.12.61.63.12.27- Change in inventories1.92.40.0-0.10.0-0.10.00.08- Net exports-2.6-3.0-0.30.50.30.4-0.20.09Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)-1.8-0.21.73.74.810Output gap, as recalculated13.4-0.60.10.4-0.411Employment (% change)3.83.80.90.81.00.70.90.212Unemployment rate (%)-15.512.5-5.412.2-7.211.8-8.0-2.813Labour productivity (% change)2.02.01.31.62.01.22.11.914HICP inflation (% change)9.39.34.54.22.42.42.02.015GDP deflator8.18.14.14.71.82.92.02.016Comp. of employees (per head, % change)0.30.33.23.63.42.82.82.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-8.3-9.1-7.3-6.4-6.4-4.9-5.3-5.0202220232024#Variables-1.10.30.8 
 
 
          
 
 
Table 8.2:  General government budgetary position 

Greece 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

42 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)50.250.247.147.746.546.545.945.1-5.1of which:2- Taxes on production and imports19.119.116.917.116.416.516.115.8-3.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.9.49.49.69.69.59.29.69.80.44- Social contributions14.014.012.613.112.312.712.011.8-2.25- Other (residual)7.77.78.07.98.38.28.27.70.06RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.40.41.31.31.71.71.91.81.47Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)52.552.548.949.047.347.246.445.3-7.2of which:9- Primary expenditure50.150.145.945.844.444.043.642.7-7.4of which:10- Compensation of employees10.910.910.510.410.310.29.99.6-1.311- Intermediate consumption5.65.65.45.34.94.94.74.6-1.012- Social payments20.820.820.020.419.319.318.918.6-2.213- Subsidies5.45.42.03.01.42.21.41.3-4.114- Gross fixed capital formation3.53.54.83.95.44.65.75.52.015- Other (residual)3.93.83.22.93.12.73.03.1-0.816- Interest expenditure2.42.43.03.22.93.22.82.60.217=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.40.41.51.31.91.72.22.11.718=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-2.3-2.3-1.8-1.3-0.8-0.6-0.5-0.12.219=1-9Primary balance0.10.11.11.92.12.52.32.52.420Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-1.4-1.7-1.7-1.5-1.7-1.0-2.4-2.6-1.221=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance1.00.71.31.71.22.10.40.0-1.022One-off measures (% of GDP)0.70.50.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.723=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-2.1-2.2-1.7-1.5-1.7-1.0-2.4-2.6-0.524=23+16Structural primary balance0.30.21.31.71.22.10.40.0-0.3202220232024#Variables 
          
 
 
Table 8.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Greece 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

43 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.2.50.40.80.00.52Change in the structural primary balancen.a.2.41.01.6-0.10.4Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#VariablesCOMCOMCOM-1.0-0.20.40.2-0.4-0.7-1.20.31.1-0.60.31.2-0.60.0-0.30.0-0.10.22.0-2.3-0.20.3-0.40.00.00.00.0-5.1-1.50.00.32.6-1.50.5No2.00.72.0 
  
 
 
Table 8.4:  General government debt developments 

Greece 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

44 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)189.5171.3171.3162.6160.2150.8154.4142.6135.22=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)2.8-23.3-23.3-8.7-11.0-11.8-5.8-8.1-7.4Contributions2:3Primary balance-0.1-0.1-0.1-1.1-1.9-2.1-2.5-2.3-2.54=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect1.4-22.2-22.2-7.6-8.3-4.5-4.3-4.4-3.0of which:5- Interest expenditure3.02.42.42.93.22.93.22.82.66- Growth effect-1.2-10.0-10.0-3.7-3.9-4.7-3.0-4.3-2.97- Inflation effect-0.3-13.8-13.8-6.6-7.5-2.7-4.4-2.8-2.78'Stock-flow' adjustment1.5-0.9-0.90.0-0.8-5.21.0-1.5-1.9202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 8.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Greece 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

45 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.41.31.71.91.82Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.01.30.81.61.51.41.3#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumption0.00.00.00.10.10.00.03Social payments0.00.10.00.10.10.10.14Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payable0.00.00.00.30.10.10.06Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.10.00.50.20.20.18Gross fixed capital formation0.00.10.30.81.31.51.49Capital transfers0.00.10.10.30.40.50.610=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.10.41.01.72.02.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
          
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 8.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Loans 

Greece 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

46 

#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.90.90.80.81.50.72Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.10.61.11.41.1Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
        
 
9. SPAIN 

Table 9.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

47 

20252026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)5.55.52.11.92.42.01.81.72Private consumption4.44.42.10.93.02.31.71.93Gross fixed capital formation4.64.60.92.25.04.22.40.94Exports of goods and services14.414.41.54.12.53.32.21.95Imports of goods and services7.97.90.72.83.94.21.91.3Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand3.33.31.71.32.92.31.61.47- Change in inventories-0.2-0.20.00.00.00.00.00.08- Net exports2.42.40.40.6-0.5-0.30.10.39Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)-1.7-0.8-0.20.00.110Output gap, as recalculated1-1.2-0.60.10.30.411Employment (% change)2.82.82.20.82.61.11.91.712Unemployment rate (%)12.912.912.212.710.912.410.39.813Labour productivity (% change)2.61.6-0.20.8-0.30.7-0.10.014HICP inflation (% change)n.a.8.3n.a.4.0n.a.2.7n.a.n.a.15GDP deflator4.34.34.04.43.52.92.11.916Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.02.04.74.73.33.52.41.717Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)1.51.52.42.62.12.41.91.8-1.3-0.6-0.2#Variables202220232024 
 
 
        
 
 
Table 9.2:  General government budgetary position 

Spain 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

48 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)43.043.043.443.543.343.843.743.80.8of which:2- Taxes on production and imports12.112.111.912.112.012.111.911.8-0.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.12.412.413.212.513.512.514.014.31.94- Social contributions13.613.613.913.614.013.514.014.00.45- Other (residual)4.95.04.45.23.85.63.83.7-1.26RRF grants as included in the revenue projections1.90.41.41.30.11.80.00.0-1.97Revenue reductions financed by RRF grantsn.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.8=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)47.847.847.347.646.347.146.346.3-1.5of which:9- Primary expenditure45.445.444.945.143.744.743.643.4-2.0of which:10- Compensation of employees11.611.611.311.411.211.311.211.2-0.411- Intermediate consumption5.95.95.85.85.85.85.85.8-0.112- Social payments20.120.120.520.420.420.120.520.50.413- Subsidies2.02.01.81.71.31.61.41.4-0.614- Gross fixed capital formation2.82.82.72.92.62.92.42.4-0.415- Other (residual)3.03.02.83.02.42.92.32.1-0.916- Interest expenditure2.42.42.42.52.62.42.72.90.517=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants1.90.41.41.30.11.80.00.0-1.918=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-4.8-4.8-3.9-4.1-3.0-3.3-2.7-2.52.319=1-9Primary balance-2.4-2.4-1.5-1.6-0.4-0.90.10.42.820Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-3.8-4.0-3.4-3.7-2.9-3.2-2.7-2.51.321=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balancen.a.-1.6n.a.-1.2n.a.-0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.22One-off measures (% of GDP)-0.2-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.223=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-3.6-4.0-3.4-3.7-2.9-3.2-2.7-2.51.124=23+16Structural primary balance-1.2-1.6-1.0-1.2-0.3-0.80.00.41.6202220232024#Variables 
     
 
 
Table 9.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Spain 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

49 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.-0.40.20.20.50.52Change in the structural primary balancen.a.-0.10.20.30.70.5Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)1.41.20.72.6-3.70.0No3.7-2.7-0.50.00.5-0.2-0.20.00.00.01.5-1.0-0.7-0.3-0.10.00.30.20.2-2.70.20.80.1-0.6-0.5-2.60.31.1-2.5-0.30.5COMCOMCOM202220232024#Variables 
  
 
 
Table 9.4:  General government debt developments 

Spain 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

50 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)107.8113.2113.2111.9110.6109.1109.1107.9106.82=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)3.1-5.0-5.0-1.3-2.6-2.9-1.5-1.2-1.1Contributions2:3Primary balance2.82.42.41.51.60.40.9-0.1-0.44=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect0.6-8.4-8.3-4.1-4.4-3.6-2.8-1.3-0.8of which:5- Interest expenditure2.32.42.42.42.52.62.42.72.96- Growth effect-0.2-5.9-5.9-2.2-2.1-2.5-2.1-1.9-1.87- Inflation effect-1.6-4.6-4.6-4.2-4.7-3.6-3.1-2.2-1.98'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.30.90.91.40.10.40.40.30.2202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 9.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Spain 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

51 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.01.81.91.40.10.00.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.01.61.41.20.50.20.2#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumption0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Social payments0.00.20.20.20.00.00.04Interest expenditure0.00.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.30.20.20.00.00.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.10.10.10.00.00.09Capital transfers0.01.41.61.10.10.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.01.51.71.20.10.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
        
 
10. FRANCE 

Table 10.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

52 

202520262027SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)2.62.61.00.71.61.41.71.71.82Private consumption2.82.90.20.11.91.51.91.91.93Gross fixed capital formation2.32.22.11.20.91.71.81.11.34Exports of goods and services7.17.03.54.43.63.83.93.93.95Imports of goods and services9.18.93.13.63.03.53.53.33.3Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand2.72.70.90.61.41.41.71.61.67- Change in inventories0.70.60.10.00.00.00.00.00.08- Net exports-0.7-0.70.00.10.10.00.10.10.19Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)-1.1-1.5-1.3-0.9-0.50.010Output gap, as recalculated10.2-0.4-0.4-0.20.10.511Employment (% change)2.42.40.80.30.60.40.80.80.812Unemployment rate (%)n.a.7.3n.a.7.4n.a.7.5n.a.n.a.n.a.13Labour productivity (% change)0.20.20.20.41.01.00.90.91.014HICP inflation (% change)5.95.95.75.52.72.52.11.91.915GDP deflator3.03.05.45.42.72.61.81.61.616Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.05.04.85.43.03.12.82.42.517Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-2.8-2.8-1.7-1.5-1.5-1.1-1.3-1.2-1.1202220232024#Variables0.2-0.30.0 
 
 
      
 
 
Table 10.2:  General government budgetary position 

France 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

53 

202520262027Change: 2022-2027SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)53.453.451.752.451.352.351.551.451.4-2.0of which:2- Taxes on production and imports16.716.716.316.415.916.316.116.116.2-0.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.13.513.513.113.313.213.613.213.413.4-0.14- Social contributions16.816.816.516.716.516.516.516.516.4-0.45- Other (residual)6.46.35.86.05.76.05.75.45.4-1.06RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.40.40.20.2n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0n.a.n.a.8=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)58.158.156.657.155.756.655.254.654.1-4.0of which:9- Primary expenditure56.256.254.955.153.854.653.152.351.7-4.5of which:10- Compensation of employees12.412.412.212.312.112.212.011.911.9-0.511- Intermediate consumption5.25.25.25.15.15.14.94.84.7-0.512- Social payments25.725.724.925.225.025.424.824.624.3-1.413- Subsidies3.13.12.82.92.12.22.02.01.9-1.214- Gross fixed capital formation3.73.73.83.73.83.83.83.63.5-0.215- Other (residual)6.16.06.05.95.76.05.65.45.4-0.716- Interest expenditure1.91.91.72.01.92.02.12.32.40.517=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.40.40.20.2n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.18=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-4.7-4.7-4.9-4.7-4.4-4.3-3.7-3.2-2.72.019=1-9Primary balance-2.8-2.8-3.2-2.7-2.5-2.3-1.6-0.9-0.22.620Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-4.1-4.8-4.1-4.5-3.7-4.3-3.2-2.9-2.61.521=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-2.2-2.9-2.4-2.6-1.7-2.3-1.1-0.6-0.22.022One-off measures (% of GDP)-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.00.00.123=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-4.0-4.7-4.0-4.4-3.6-4.2-3.1-2.8-2.61.424=23+16Structural primary balance-2.1-2.9-2.3-2.5-1.7-2.2-1.0-0.5-0.21.9202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
Table 10.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

France 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

54 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.0.90.00.30.40.22Change in the structural primary balancen.a.1.4-0.20.40.60.2Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#VariablesCOMCOMCOM-2.00.50.20.00.30.0-2.10.30.2-1.70.60.3-0.10.0-0.1-0.3-0.30.00.80.1-0.8-0.10.1-0.20.00.00.0-2.1-0.50.00.72.3-4.4-0.4No4.03.1-0.8 
  
 
 
Table 10.4:  General government debt developments 

France 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in Recovery and Resilience Facility grant 
disbursements), accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

55 

Average2025202620272017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)104.2111.6111.6109.6109.6109.5109.5109.4109.2108.32=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)3.0-1.3-1.3-2.0-2.0-0.10.0-0.1-0.3-0.8Contributions2:3Primary balance3.22.82.83.22.72.52.31.60.90.24=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.9-4.2-4.2-5.1-4.5-2.6-2.3-1.7-1.2-1.1of which:5- Interest expenditure1.51.91.91.72.01.92.02.12.32.46- Growth effect-1.0-2.8-2.7-1.0-0.8-1.7-1.5-1.8-1.8-1.97- Inflation effect-1.4-3.2-3.2-5.7-5.6-2.8-2.8-2.0-1.7-1.78'Stock-flow' adjustment0.60.10.1-0.1-0.30.00.00.00.00.1202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 10.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

France 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

56 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.50.40.2n.a.n.a.n.a.2Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.20.30.4n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.20.10.0n.a.n.a.n.a.8Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Capital transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.10=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.30.30.2n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
        
 
11. CROATIA 

Table 11.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

57 

20252026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)6.36.22.21.62.62.32.52.22Private consumption5.15.11.31.22.61.82.42.13Gross fixed capital formation5.85.84.62.93.73.73.32.94Exports of goods and services25.425.42.73.02.93.73.02.75Imports of goods and services25.025.02.82.93.03.42.92.6Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand4.84.82.31.92.82.32.62.27- Change in inventories1.71.60.1-0.30.0-0.10.00.08- Net exports-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.10.00.00.09Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)2.92.01.61.51.310Output gap, as recalculated13.51.91.00.50.111Employment (% change)2.32.32.01.01.51.21.21.012Unemployment rate (%)7.07.06.56.65.96.15.45.213Labour productivity (% change)3.93.80.20.61.11.11.31.314HICP inflation (% change)10.810.76.66.92.82.22.42.215GDP deflator8.98.27.97.53.73.22.72.416Comp. of employees (per head, % change)7.97.910.87.55.23.34.13.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)n.a.2.1n.a.3.1n.a.3.7n.a.n.a.202220232024#Variables3.81.91.2 
 
 
           
 
 
Table 11.2:  General government budgetary position 

Croatia 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

58 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)45.245.245.245.344.444.744.544.5-0.7of which:2- Taxes on production and imports18.618.618.218.518.218.318.318.3-0.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.86.86.36.76.36.76.36.3-0.54- Social contributions10.910.911.211.011.311.011.311.40.55- Other (residual)9.09.09.49.28.78.68.78.6-0.46RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.30.31.21.21.71.71.71.81.57Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)44.844.845.845.846.046.045.345.20.3of which:9- Primary expenditure43.443.444.544.644.744.944.043.80.4of which:10- Compensation of employees11.311.311.411.611.912.011.911.70.511- Intermediate consumption7.87.87.67.87.57.77.57.5-0.312- Social payments14.114.114.314.514.214.614.013.9-0.213- Subsidies2.32.32.32.21.61.61.51.4-0.814- Gross fixed capital formation3.83.84.64.74.64.64.74.81.015- Other (residual)4.34.34.33.85.04.34.54.60.316- Interest expenditure1.41.41.31.21.31.21.21.3-0.117=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.30.31.21.21.71.71.71.81.518=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)0.40.4-0.7-0.5-1.5-1.3-0.8-0.6-1.019=1-9Primary balance1.81.80.60.7-0.3-0.20.50.7-1.120Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-0.9-1.3-1.6-1.3-2.3-1.9-1.4-1.2-0.321=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance0.50.1-0.3-0.1-1.0-0.7-0.20.1-0.422One-off measures (% of GDP)0.0-0.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.023=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-0.9-1.0-1.6-1.3-2.3-1.9-1.4-1.2-0.324=23+16Structural primary balance0.50.4-0.3-0.1-1.0-0.7-0.20.1-0.4202220232024#Variables 
      
 
 
Table 11.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Croatia 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

59 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.1.9-0.7-0.3-0.7-0.52Change in the structural primary balancen.a.1.7-0.8-0.5-0.8-0.6Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#VariablesCOMCOMCOM0.2-1.00.00.0-0.40.40.3-0.6-0.40.1-0.40.50.6-0.7-0.4-0.50.5-0.61.6-0.1-1.30.3-0.1-0.20.10.00.0-1.2-0.10.00.35.1-1.3-1.0No0.36.8-1.8 
  
 
 
Table 11.4:  General government debt developments 

Croatia 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

60 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)77.268.468.462.663.059.861.857.555.62=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-0.3-10.0-10.0-5.8-5.4-2.8-1.1-2.3-1.9Contributions2:3Primary balance-0.3-1.8-1.8-0.6-0.70.30.2-0.5-0.74=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.1-9.3-9.3-5.1-4.6-2.5-2.1-1.8-1.3of which:5- Interest expenditure2.11.41.41.31.21.31.21.21.36- Growth effect-2.1-4.3-4.2-1.4-1.0-1.6-1.3-1.4-1.27- Inflation effect-1.2-6.0-6.1-4.9-4.7-2.2-1.9-1.5-1.38'Stock-flow' adjustment1.21.11.1-0.1-0.1-0.50.80.00.0202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 11.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Croatia 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

61 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.31.21.71.71.82Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.01.42.10.91.31.20.9#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.40.50.50.58Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.30.60.60.79Capital transfers0.00.00.20.50.60.60.610=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.20.81.21.21.3#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.10.20.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
           
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 11.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Loans 

Croatia 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

62 

#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.00.00.01.31.91.12Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.30.31.09Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.50.50.810=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.90.81.7#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
          
 
12. ITALY 

Table 12.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

63 

20252026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)3.73.71.01.21.51.11.31.12Private consumption4.64.60.70.11.31.21.01.13Gross fixed capital formation9.49.43.82.63.41.42.11.54Exports of goods and services9.49.43.22.33.83.13.72.85Imports of goods and services11.811.82.50.83.82.33.52.8Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand4.64.60.90.71.30.81.21.17- Change in inventories-0.4-0.4-0.10.00.10.00.00.08- Net exports-0.5-0.50.30.60.10.30.10.09Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)0.50.60.91.11.110Output gap, as recalculated10.70.60.80.60.211Employment (% change)1.71.70.90.51.00.10.70.812Unemployment rate (%)8.18.17.77.87.57.77.47.213Labour productivity (% change)1.92.10.10.70.51.00.60.314HICP inflation (% change)8.78.75.96.12.82.92.12.015GDP deflator3.03.04.85.92.72.72.02.016Comp. of employees (per head, % change)3.32.63.13.52.23.62.01.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-0.8-0.81.20.01.51.31.91.9202220232024#Variables0.71.11.3 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 12.2:  General government budgetary position 

Italy 

1 In the table, the figures related to the Stability Programme correspond to the budgetary projections as reported by Italy. Except 
for the overall general government deficit and debt figures, those projections do not take into account the fiscal package 
announced by Italy. This package, adopted on 1 May 2023, included, among others, fiscal policy measures to reduce the labour 
tax wedge in 2023. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

64 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SP1COMSP1COMSP1COMSP1SP1SP11=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)48.848.848.948.047.747.347.647.1-1.7of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.514.515.014.715.014.614.914.80.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.15.215.214.614.614.214.414.314.2-1.04- Social contributions13.713.713.613.113.713.413.713.6-0.15- Other (residual)5.45.45.75.64.84.94.74.5-0.96RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.7n.a.0.9n.a.0.6n.a.n.a.n.a.7Revenue reductions financed by RRF grantsn.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.8=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)56.756.753.252.551.251.050.749.6-7.1of which:9- Primary expenditure52.352.449.548.547.146.846.545.1-7.2of which:10- Compensation of employees9.89.89.49.38.98.88.68.4-1.411- Intermediate consumption6.06.06.06.05.65.65.55.5-0.512- Social payments24.024.023.623.323.623.623.423.3-0.713- Subsidies2.62.62.61.91.81.41.71.5-1.114- Gross fixed capital formation2.72.73.33.13.83.53.73.40.715- Other (residual)7.27.34.64.93.43.83.63.0-4.216- Interest expenditure4.44.43.74.04.14.14.24.50.117=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grantsn.a.0.7n.a.0.9n.a.0.6n.a.n.a.n.a.18=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-8.0-8.0-4.5-4.5-3.7-3.7-3.0-2.55.519=1-9Primary balance-3.6-3.6-0.6-0.50.50.51.22.05.620Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-8.3-8.3-4.8-5.1-4.2-4.4-3.6-3.15.221=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-3.9-4.0-1.1-1.1-0.2-0.30.61.45.322One-off measures (% of GDP)0.30.30.30.30.10.10.10.1-0.223=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-8.5-8.6-4.9-5.3-4.1-4.5-3.7-3.25.324=23+16Structural primary balance-4.1-4.3-1.2-1.40.0-0.30.51.35.4202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
Table 12.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Italy 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

65 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.-0.23.63.30.80.92Change in the structural primary balancen.a.0.52.92.91.21.0Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#VariablesCOMCOMCOM-3.22.61.7-0.4-0.50.6-2.83.21.1-2.40.91.30.0-0.1-0.4-0.32.30.22.2-1.5-1.01.2-0.6-0.70.10.00.0-2.3-1.10.0-5.30.25No5.60.71.30.80.6 
  
 
 
Table 12.4:  General government debt developments 

Italy 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

66 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)141.5144.4144.4142.1140.4141.4140.3140.9140.42=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)3.0-5.5-5.5-2.3-4.0-0.7-0.1-0.5-0.5Contributions2:3Primary balance1.43.63.60.80.5-0.3-0.5-1.2-2.04=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect2.0-5.1-5.2-4.1-5.7-1.9-1.0-0.40.3of which:5- Interest expenditure3.64.44.43.74.04.14.14.24.56- Growth effect-0.2-5.2-5.2-1.4-1.6-2.0-1.5-1.8-1.57- Inflation effect-1.3-4.2-4.2-6.5-7.9-3.8-3.6-2.8-2.78'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.4-3.9-3.91.11.21.41.41.11.3202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 12.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Italy 

The Stability Programme submitted by Italy did not include annual figures on revenue from and expenditure financed by Recovery 
and Resilience Facility (RRF) grants. For details on the approach for the statistical recording of RRF-related flows, see Box 2 on 
page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

67 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520262020-20261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3.42Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3.4#20202021202220232024202520262020-20261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.68Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.1.29Capital transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.1.610=8+9Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2.8#20202021202220232024202520262020-20261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.02Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.03Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 12.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Loans 

Italy 

The Stability Programme submitted by Italy did not include annual figures on cash flow from and expenditure financed by 
Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) loans. For details on the approach for the statistical recording of RRF-related flows, see  
Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

68 

#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520262020-20261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6.02Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.0#20202021202220232024202520262020-20261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.48Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5.29Capital transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.110=8+9Total capital expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5.3#20202021202220232024202520262020-20261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.02Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.03Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.1Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
       
 
13. CYPRUS 

Table 13.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

69 

20252026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)5.65.62.82.33.02.73.13.22Private consumption7.77.72.21.91.82.22.02.33Gross fixed capital formation6.66.61.70.86.31.76.05.84Exports of goods and services14.313.73.72.83.13.72.62.45Imports of goods and services19.518.82.72.12.92.92.42.2Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand6.65.92.11.72.91.92.93.17- Change in inventories3.03.70.00.00.00.00.00.08- Net exports-4.1-3.90.90.70.10.80.20.19Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)2.31.30.90.70.710Output gap, as recalculated12.61.40.60.10.011Employment (% change)2.92.91.01.71.41.91.61.812Unemployment rate (%)6.86.86.56.95.86.45.35.013Labour productivity (% change)2.72.71.80.61.60.81.51.414HICP inflation (% change)8.18.13.23.82.52.52.02.015GDP deflator6.56.43.85.02.42.82.12.116Comp. of employees (per head, % change)3.83.88.06.35.24.04.84.517Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-8.9-8.3-7.5-6.5-7.0-6.1-6.6-6.32.71.81.5#Variables202220232024 
 
 
          
 
 
Table 13.2:  General government budgetary position 

Cyprus 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

70 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)41.941.942.242.142.742.742.341.90.0of which:2- Taxes on production and imports14.714.714.714.714.614.414.414.3-0.43- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.610.710.710.610.710.710.710.70.14- Social contributions11.511.511.711.712.412.212.612.71.15- Other (residual)5.15.15.15.15.05.54.64.2-0.96RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.40.40.90.90.80.60.57Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)39.839.840.240.240.440.639.939.5-0.3of which:9- Primary expenditure38.338.339.038.939.039.338.638.2-0.1of which:10- Compensation of employees11.711.711.911.811.911.811.811.70.011- Intermediate consumption4.64.64.64.64.64.84.64.60.012- Social payments15.715.715.815.816.116.116.416.60.913- Subsidies0.40.40.40.30.30.30.20.2-0.214- Gross fixed capital formation2.62.63.03.02.82.82.42.3-0.215- Other (residual)3.53.53.23.43.23.43.12.8-0.716- Interest expenditure1.51.51.31.31.31.31.41.3-0.117=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.20.10.40.41.00.90.80.70.518=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)2.12.12.01.82.32.12.32.40.319=1-9Primary balance3.63.63.23.23.73.43.73.70.120Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)1.00.71.30.91.91.32.02.01.121=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance2.42.22.62.23.22.63.33.40.922One-off measures (% of GDP)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.023=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)1.00.71.30.91.91.32.02.01.124=23+16Structural primary balance2.52.22.62.23.22.63.33.40.9202220232024#Variables 
          
 
 
Table 13.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Cyprus 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

71 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.3.20.40.20.60.42Change in the structural primary balancen.a.2.80.10.00.60.4Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)3.6n.a.na.na.0.90.0Yesn.a.-2.6-0.30.00.1-0.10.00.10.00.00.6-0.2-0.40.1-0.80.4-0.20.00.00.00.00.30.10.6-0.5-0.1-0.70.80.0-0.10.3COMCOMCOM202220232024#Variables 
  
 
 
Table 13.4:  General government debt developments 

Cyprus 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

72 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)99.386.586.581.180.472.972.567.360.12=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-0.3-14.7-14.7-5.4-6.1-8.2-8.0-5.6-7.2Contributions2:3Primary balance-0.5-3.6-3.6-3.2-3.2-3.7-3.4-3.7-3.74=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-2.5-9.7-9.7-4.2-4.7-3.0-3.0-2.3-2.1of which:5- Interest expenditure2.21.51.51.31.31.31.31.41.36- Growth effect-3.6-5.1-5.1-2.3-1.9-2.3-2.1-2.2-2.07- Inflation effect-1.0-5.8-5.8-3.1-4.1-1.9-2.2-1.5-1.38'Stock-flow' adjustment2.8-1.4-1.42.01.7-1.6-1.60.4-1.4202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 13.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Cyprus 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

73 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.10.40.90.80.62Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.50.30.70.80.60.4#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumptionn.a.0.00.00.10.10.10.13Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.0.00.00.10.10.16Current transfers0.00.00.00.00.10.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.10.30.20.28Gross fixed capital formation0.10.00.00.20.40.30.39Capital transfers0.00.00.00.10.20.30.210=8+9Total capital expenditure0.10.10.10.30.70.60.5#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
          
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 13.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Loans 

Cyprus 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

74 

#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.10.00.00.20.30.02Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.00.03Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.0.10.10.1n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.10.10.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.10.10.10.19Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.10.10.10.1#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
        
 
14. LATVIA 

Table 14.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

75 

20252026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)2.02.80.01.42.02.82.92.82Private consumption8.18.1-0.93.02.12.84.03.53Gross fixed capital formation0.70.71.01.74.84.05.05.04Exports of goods and services9.19.10.02.44.32.54.65.05Imports of goods and services11.611.70.51.53.91.84.75.0Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand5.55.4-0.12.42.62.83.73.57- Change in inventories-0.5-0.60.5-1.2-0.3-0.10.00.08- Net exports-2.9-2.0-0.40.5-0.30.4-0.8-0.79Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)0.5-1.5-1.4-0.60.010Output gap, as recalculated10.0-1.6-1.5-0.80.211Employment (% change)2.62.70.00.1-0.21.6-0.3-0.612Unemployment rate (%)6.96.97.16.86.86.56.46.413Labour productivity (% change)-0.60.00.01.32.21.23.23.414HICP inflation (% change)17.317.210.09.32.21.72.52.515GDP deflator14.113.111.78.93.42.72.72.716Comp. of employees (per head, % change)7.59.08.510.86.55.35.04.017Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-5.3-4.6-1.9-1.3-1.3-0.5-1.0-1.1202220232024#Variables-0.5-1.0-0.3 
 
 
       
 
 
Table 14.2:  General government budgetary position 

Latvia 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

76 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)36.135.836.036.336.136.635.434.9-1.2of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.413.612.813.312.913.212.812.7-0.73- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.96.96.66.86.66.86.66.6-0.34- Social contributions9.79.89.69.89.910.09.99.80.15- Other (residual)6.15.47.06.46.76.76.15.8-0.36RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.70.81.21.41.20.70.77Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)40.840.240.040.138.639.337.635.6-5.3of which:9- Primary expenditure40.339.739.439.537.838.536.534.5-5.8of which:10- Compensation of employees10.210.510.310.510.010.49.69.1-1.111- Intermediate consumption7.06.35.96.35.76.35.65.3-1.712- Social payments13.612.613.012.813.112.613.213.1-0.513- Subsidies0.71.60.71.30.60.80.60.6-0.114- Gross fixed capital formation4.43.85.15.55.96.15.74.80.515- Other (residual)4.54.94.53.22.52.31.81.6-2.916- Interest expenditure0.50.50.60.60.80.81.01.10.517=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.00.70.81.31.41.10.70.718=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-4.7-4.4-4.0-3.8-2.5-2.7-2.2-0.74.019=1-9Primary balance-4.2-3.9-3.4-3.2-1.7-1.9-1.20.44.620Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-4.9-4.2-3.5-3.5-2.0-2.6-2.0-0.74.221=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-4.4-3.7-2.9-2.9-1.2-1.8-1.00.44.822One-off measures (% of GDP)-4.80.0-3.00.0-1.50.0-1.5-0.74.123=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-0.1-4.2-0.5-3.5-0.5-2.6-0.50.00.124=23+16Structural primary balance0.4-3.70.1-2.90.3-1.80.51.10.6202220232024#Variables 
       
 
 
Table 14.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Latvia 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

77 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.2.5-0.40.80.00.92Change in the structural primary balancen.a.2.5-0.30.90.21.1Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#VariablesCOMCOMCOM0.0-0.90.60.2-1.1-0.7-0.20.11.30.3-0.51.71.2-1.0-0.4-1.71.70.01.4-0.5-1.00.5-0.4-0.10.20.10.0-3.8-1.20.00.53.0-3.5-1.0No2.51.31.6 
  
 
 
Table 14.4:  General government debt developments 

Latvia 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

78 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)39.640.840.839.639.739.740.539.838.92=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.7-3.1-2.9-1.2-1.10.20.80.1-0.9Contributions2:3Primary balance2.04.23.93.43.21.71.91.2-0.44=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.5-5.6-5.7-3.7-3.3-1.2-1.3-1.1-1.0of which:5- Interest expenditure0.70.50.50.60.60.80.81.01.16- Growth effect-0.9-0.8-1.00.0-0.5-0.7-1.1-1.1-1.17- Inflation effect-1.2-5.3-5.0-4.3-3.3-1.3-1.0-1.0-1.08'Stock-flow' adjustment0.1-1.6-1.2-1.0-1.0-0.20.20.60.7202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 14.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Latvia 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

79 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.00.71.21.20.72Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.70.50.01.70.50.6#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumption0.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social payments0.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expenditure0.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payable0.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfers0.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.30.50.40.38Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.40.80.70.49Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.40.80.70.4#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
15. LITHUANIA 

Table 15.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

80 

20252026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)1.91.90.50.53.02.73.03.02Private consumption0.50.50.50.13.43.13.43.43Gross fixed capital formation2.62.62.72.75.44.55.45.44Exports of goods and services11.311.90.01.94.94.84.94.95Imports of goods and services11.112.30.32.05.24.95.25.2Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand0.90.91.00.73.22.83.23.27- Change in inventoriesn.a.0.7n.a.0.0n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.8- Net exports0.70.2-0.3-0.1-0.20.1-0.2-0.29Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)-0.4-2.6-1.9-0.90.010Output gap, as recalculated1-0.6-2.6-1.9-1.4-0.611Employment (% change)3.85.1-0.7-0.60.0-0.3-0.1-0.212Unemployment rate (%)5.96.07.06.66.86.56.56.313Labour productivity (% change)-1.9-3.01.21.23.03.03.13.214HICP inflation (% change)18.918.98.59.22.32.22.02.015GDP deflator16.916.89.810.42.33.12.02.016Comp. of employees (per head, % change)10.610.610.510.45.36.25.25.317Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-4.4-3.90.30.2-0.51.3-0.7-0.8202220232024#Variables-0.5-2.7-2.6 
 
 
       
 
 
Table 15.2:  General government budgetary position 

Lithuania 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

81 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)35.835.836.335.936.435.836.235.80.0of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.511.511.111.111.311.211.211.1-0.43- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.110.19.99.910.19.910.310.50.44- Social contributions10.310.39.910.010.010.010.09.9-0.45- Other (residual)3.93.95.44.95.04.64.74.30.46RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.70.70.90.90.70.30.27Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)36.436.538.637.638.137.137.636.70.3of which:9- Primary expenditure36.036.138.137.137.536.536.835.8-0.2of which:10- Compensation of employees10.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.10.011- Intermediate consumption4.34.35.64.75.64.95.55.00.712- Social payments14.114.114.714.614.714.614.714.60.513- Subsidies1.71.70.81.00.30.40.30.3-1.414- Gross fixed capital formation3.03.04.03.63.93.63.53.40.415- Other (residual)2.82.82.93.02.92.92.72.4-0.416- Interest expenditure0.40.40.50.50.60.60.80.90.517=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.10.70.70.90.90.70.30.218=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-0.6-0.6-2.2-1.7-1.7-1.4-1.4-0.9-0.319=1-9Primary balance-0.3-0.3-1.8-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.50.00.320Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-0.5-0.4-1.2-0.6-0.9-0.3-1.0-0.9-0.421=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-0.1-0.1-0.7-0.2-0.30.3-0.20.00.122One-off measures (% of GDP)0.20.0-0.10.00.00.00.00.0-0.223=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-0.6-0.4-1.0-0.6-1.0-0.3-0.9-0.9-0.324=23+16Structural primary balance-0.2-0.1-0.5-0.2-0.40.3-0.10.00.2202220232024#Variables 
       
 
 
Table 15.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Lithuania 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

82 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.1.1-0.4-0.20.00.32Change in the structural primary balancen.a.1.1-0.3-0.10.10.5Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#VariablesCOMCOMCOM0.9-0.81.40.2-0.80.20.60.11.20.90.41.20.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.20.21.3-0.7-0.60.00.00.00.30.00.0-0.2-0.40.0na.na.-0.6-1.0Yesn.a.2.7n.a. 
  
 
 
Table 15.4:  General government debt developments 

Lithuania 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

83 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)39.738.438.437.837.137.736.639.238.62=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.8-5.3-5.3-0.6-1.3-0.1-0.51.5-0.6Contributions2:3Primary balance0.50.30.31.81.31.10.70.50.04=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-2.0-6.7-6.6-3.2-3.3-1.3-1.4-0.9-1.0of which:5- Interest expenditure0.80.40.40.50.50.60.60.80.96- Growth effect-1.4-0.7-0.7-0.2-0.2-1.1-1.0-1.1-1.17- Inflation effect-1.4-6.2-6.2-3.4-3.6-0.8-1.1-0.7-0.78'Stock-flow' adjustment2.41.11.10.80.80.20.22.00.5202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 15.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Lithuania 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

84 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.10.70.90.70.32Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.50.01.10.70.20.3#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumption0.00.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social payments0.00.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expenditure0.00.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payable0.00.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfers0.00.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.30.30.30.18Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.10.40.60.40.29Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.40.60.40.2#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
16. LUXEMBOURG 

Table 16.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

85 

202520262027SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)1.51.52.41.63.82.42.92.52.52Private consumption2.82.83.22.43.12.73.02.62.53Gross fixed capital formation-0.5-0.5-9.3-2.915.21.62.4-1.0-1.14Exports of goods and services-0.6-0.64.82.66.23.65.25.15.05Imports of goods and services-0.9-0.94.32.77.23.85.65.34.9Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand1.51.40.10.93.81.51.70.90.97- Change in inventories-0.2-0.1-0.20.0-0.10.00.20.3-0.18- Net exports0.30.22.50.70.10.91.01.31.79Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)-1.6-1.5-0.3-0.2-0.10.010Output gap, as recalculated1-1.2-1.4-0.5-0.3-0.5-0.611Employment (% change)3.53.52.72.42.52.32.22.42.212Unemployment rate (%)4.44.64.54.84.65.04.95.15.313Labour productivity (% change)-1.9-1.9-0.2-0.81.30.10.60.10.314HICP inflation (% change)8.28.23.23.22.72.62.71.51.715GDP deflator6.46.42.25.52.13.42.52.12.116Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.65.45.76.94.23.43.72.01.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)n.a.4.9n.a.6.5n.a.6.7n.a.n.a.n.a.-0.8-1.5-1.4#Variables202220232024 
 
 
      
 
 
Table 16.2:  General government budgetary position 

Luxembourg 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

86 

202520262027Change: 2022-2027SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)43.543.544.243.043.942.044.244.444.30.8of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.411.411.310.911.310.711.311.411.40.03- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.15.815.816.215.716.115.116.216.316.30.54- Social contributions11.911.912.412.212.312.212.612.612.70.85- Other (residual)4.44.34.34.14.24.14.14.13.9-0.56RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.00.10.00.00.00.0n.a.n.a.7Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0n.a.n.a.8=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)43.343.345.744.745.643.545.245.145.21.9of which:9- Primary expenditure43.143.145.544.545.443.144.944.744.71.6of which:10- Compensation of employees10.210.210.810.410.910.410.910.810.80.611- Intermediate consumption4.34.34.54.44.44.34.34.34.2-0.112- Social payments18.618.619.118.419.017.819.219.419.71.113- Subsidies1.21.21.52.01.41.81.11.11.0-0.214- Gross fixed capital formation4.14.14.54.34.54.34.44.34.20.115- Other (residual)4.74.85.15.05.24.45.04.84.80.116- Interest expenditure0.20.20.20.30.20.30.30.40.50.317=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.10.00.00.00.0n.a.n.a.18=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)0.20.2-1.5-1.7-1.7-1.5-1.0-0.8-0.9-1.119=1-9Primary balance0.30.3-1.3-1.5-1.5-1.1-0.7-0.4-0.4-0.720Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)0.90.5-0.8-1.1-1.6-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.9-1.821=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance1.10.7-0.6-0.8-1.4-0.5-0.6-0.3-0.4-1.522One-off measures (% of GDP)n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.23=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)0.90.5-0.8-1.1-1.6-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.9-1.824=23+16Structural primary balance1.10.7-0.6-0.8-1.4-0.5-0.6-0.3-0.4-1.5202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
Table 16.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Luxembourg 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

87 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.-0.3-1.7-1.6-0.80.22Change in the structural primary balancen.a.-0.3-1.7-1.5-0.80.3Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)2.92.00.34.8-1.10.5No1.6-0.6-0.10.00.40.3-0.60.10.00.00.50.6-0.60.0-0.1-0.10.40.00.1-1.3-1.31.20.0-0.10.0-0.9-1.41.2-0.9-1.51.2COMCOMCOM202220232024#Variables 
  
 
 
Table 16.4:  General government debt developments 

Luxembourg 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

88 

Average2025202620272017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)22.824.624.626.125.927.527.028.228.629.02=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)1.00.10.11.51.31.31.10.70.50.3Contributions2:3Primary balance-1.1-0.3-0.31.31.51.51.10.70.40.44=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.8-1.7-1.7-0.9-1.4-1.3-1.1-1.1-0.8-0.8of which:5- Interest expenditure0.30.20.20.20.30.20.30.30.40.56- Growth effect-0.4-0.3-0.4-0.6-0.4-0.9-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.77- Inflation effect-0.7-1.5-1.5-0.5-1.3-0.5-0.8-0.6-0.6-0.68'Stock-flow' adjustment2.92.12.11.11.21.21.11.10.80.8202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 16.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Luxembourg 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

89 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumption0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Social payments0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Interest expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Subsidies, payable0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06Current transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
        
 
17. HUNGARY 

Table 17.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

90 

202520262027CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)4.64.61.50.54.02.84.34.54.22Private consumption6.56.4-0.1-0.73.22.84.14.24.33Gross fixed capital formation1.21.2-4.8-2.93.71.54.94.24.04Exports of goods and services11.811.84.93.55.94.57.48.36.75Imports of goods and services11.111.11.82.04.33.56.56.95.7Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand3.63.6-1.2-1.22.72.03.53.43.47- Change in inventories0.30.30.00.40.00.00.00.00.08- Net exports0.70.72.71.31.20.80.81.10.89Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)0.3-1.5-1.1-0.7-0.20.010Output gap, as recalculated1-0.2-1.8-1.2-0.60.20.611Employment (% change)1.31.70.00.00.40.50.10.10.112Unemployment rate (%)3.63.63.94.23.54.03.23.02.913Labour productivity (% change)3.22.81.50.53.22.34.24.44.114HICP inflation (% change)15.315.315.016.46.04.03.03.03.015GDP deflator15.315.314.813.05.63.54.24.03.916Comp. of employees (per head, % change)13.715.015.614.610.38.38.48.17.617Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-5.8-6.2-0.7-0.81.4-0.21.92.13.30.3-1.6-1.2#Variables202220232024 
 
 
      
 
 
Table 17.2:  General government budgetary position 

Hungary 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

91 

202520262027Change: 2022-2027CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)41.641.642.643.440.041.739.038.438.0-3.6of which:2- Taxes on production and imports17.817.818.318.216.617.016.115.815.5-2.33- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.96.97.26.97.36.97.06.96.90.04- Social contributions9.89.89.810.19.810.29.89.79.7-0.15- Other (residual)7.17.27.38.26.37.66.16.05.9-1.26RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.20.20.50.51.00.90.70.2n.a.n.a.7Revenue reductions financed by RRF grantsn.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)47.847.846.547.342.946.040.939.838.9-8.9of which:9- Primary expenditure45.045.142.743.538.841.837.236.435.6-9.4of which:10- Compensation of employees10.110.19.19.69.19.79.18.88.5-1.611- Intermediate consumption8.18.18.68.57.78.47.67.26.9-1.212- Social payments11.711.711.311.911.111.610.710.29.7-2.013- Subsidies1.81.83.12.71.91.11.81.61.5-0.314- Gross fixed capital formation5.35.35.15.33.75.13.13.13.9-1.415- Other (residual)8.08.05.55.65.35.94.95.55.1-2.916- Interest expenditure2.82.83.83.94.14.33.73.43.30.517=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.20.20.40.51.00.90.70.2n.a.n.a.18=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-6.2-6.2-3.9-4.0-2.9-4.4-1.9-1.4-0.95.319=1-9Primary balance-3.5-3.5-0.1-0.11.2-0.11.82.02.45.920Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-6.3-6.4-3.2-3.2-2.4-3.8-1.6-1.3-0.95.421=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-3.5-3.60.60.61.70.52.12.12.45.922One-off measures (% of GDP)-1.40.00.40.00.00.00.00.00.01.423=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-4.9-6.4-3.6-3.2-2.4-3.8-1.6-1.3-0.94.024=23+16Structural primary balance-2.1-3.60.20.61.70.52.12.12.44.5202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
Table 17.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Hungary 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

92 

CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.0.31.33.11.2-0.62Change in the structural primary balancen.a.0.82.34.21.5-0.2Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)7.0-2.70.54.4-3.2-1.0No2.2-1.8-0.10.00.00.00.00.10.0-0.10.60.2-0.80.20.6-0.3-1.72.2-0.10.62.20.20.6-0.80.1-0.95.0-0.1-0.44.20.0COMCOMCOM202220232024#Variables 
  
 
 
Table 17.4:  General government debt developments 

Hungary 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

93 

Average2025202620272017-2021CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)72.573.373.369.770.766.771.163.959.856.32=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.3-3.3-3.3-3.6-2.6-3.00.4-2.8-4.1-3.5Contributions2:3Primary balance1.93.53.50.10.1-1.20.1-1.8-2.0-2.44=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-3.6-10.4-10.3-6.6-4.9-2.10.0-1.6-1.7-1.2of which:5- Interest expenditure2.42.82.83.83.94.14.33.73.43.36- Growth effect-2.3-2.9-2.9-0.9-0.4-2.5-1.9-2.6-2.6-2.37- Inflation effect-3.5-9.7-9.7-9.3-8.4-3.5-2.3-2.6-2.3-2.18'Stock-flow' adjustment2.03.53.53.12.20.00.40.6-0.40.2202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 17.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Hungary 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Convergence Programme. 

94 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.20.51.00.70.22Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.30.20.18Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.20.30.70.50.19Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.20.30.70.50.1#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
        
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 17.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Loans 

Hungary 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Convergence Programme. 

95 

#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.00.00.00.01.51.12Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.10.18Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.01.41.19Capital transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.10=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.01.41.1#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
      
 
18. MALTA 

Table 18.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

96 

20252026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)6.96.94.13.94.54.14.64.22Private consumption10.110.13.83.83.94.04.03.63Gross fixed capital formation30.430.4-6.8-5.03.83.54.65.64Exports of goods and services6.46.44.33.65.23.05.34.25Imports of goods and services9.79.72.42.24.82.75.03.9Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand10.910.90.61.43.23.23.33.27- Change in inventories-0.1-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.08- Net exports-4.0-4.03.52.61.20.91.31.09Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)0.5-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.810Output gap, as recalculated1-0.8-1.1-1.0-0.6-0.511Employment (% change)6.06.03.52.33.72.33.73.612Unemployment rate (%)2.92.93.02.93.12.93.13.113Labour productivity (% change)0.80.80.61.60.71.80.80.614HICP inflation (% change)6.16.15.75.43.52.82.02.415GDP deflator5.25.24.34.23.03.12.52.616Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.82.85.35.63.93.12.82.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-2.92.6n.a.4.8n.a.5.1n.a.n.a.-0.6-1.1-1.4#Variables202220232024 
 
 
       
 
 
Table 18.2:  General government budgetary position 

Malta 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

97 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)35.135.135.735.634.234.334.033.7-1.4of which:2- Taxes on production and imports10.510.510.510.410.310.310.210.2-0.43- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.13.613.613.413.413.313.313.213.3-0.44- Social contributions5.95.95.85.85.75.85.65.5-0.35- Other (residual)5.05.06.06.04.94.94.94.7-0.36RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.50.50.60.60.40.10.17Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)40.940.940.740.738.538.837.636.6-4.3of which:9- Primary expenditure39.939.939.539.537.137.436.135.1-4.8of which:10- Compensation of employees10.810.810.710.810.610.610.410.3-0.611- Intermediate consumption8.18.18.58.58.28.38.07.8-0.312- Social payments8.88.88.88.98.88.98.68.4-0.413- Subsidies5.05.03.73.82.92.92.62.2-2.914- Gross fixed capital formation3.33.33.83.83.13.13.13.2-0.115- Other (residual)3.73.74.03.73.53.43.43.3-0.416- Interest expenditure1.01.01.21.21.51.51.51.40.517=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.10.50.50.60.60.40.10.118=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-5.8-5.8-5.0-5.1-4.3-4.5-3.6-2.92.919=1-9Primary balance-4.8-4.8-3.8-3.9-2.8-3.1-2.1-1.53.420Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-6.1-5.5-4.9-4.6-4.1-3.9-3.4-2.53.521=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-5.1-4.6-3.7-3.4-2.7-2.4-1.9-1.14.022One-off measures (% of GDP)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.023=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-6.1-5.5-4.9-4.6-4.1-3.9-3.4-2.53.624=23+16Structural primary balance-5.1-4.6-3.7-3.4-2.7-2.4-1.9-1.14.0202220232024#Variables 
       
 
 
Table 18.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Malta 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

98 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.1.61.10.90.80.72Change in the structural primary balancen.a.1.51.41.21.01.0Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)3.62.20.55.9-4.60.0No4.6-2.4-0.80.00.10.00.00.10.00.01.9-0.8-0.20.20.3-0.10.30.00.1-0.90.81.50.2-0.70.8-0.41.11.5-0.20.42.3COMCOMCOM202220232024#Variables 
  
 
 
Table 18.4:  General government debt developments 

Malta 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

99 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)48.053.453.454.554.855.756.156.256.12=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)0.1-1.7-1.71.11.41.31.30.5-0.1Contributions2:3Primary balance0.94.84.83.83.92.83.12.11.54=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-2.1-5.1-5.1-3.0-2.9-2.4-2.2-2.3-2.2of which:5- Interest expenditure1.41.01.01.21.21.51.51.51.46- Growth effect-2.5-3.4-3.4-2.0-1.9-2.3-2.1-2.4-2.27- Inflation effect-0.9-2.6-2.6-2.1-2.1-1.5-1.6-1.3-1.48'Stock-flow' adjustment1.2-1.4-1.40.30.40.80.50.70.7202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 18.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Malta 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

100 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.10.50.60.40.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.30.00.40.10.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumption0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Social payments0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Interest expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Subsidies, payable0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06Current transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.10.50.60.40.19Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.50.60.40.1#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
      
 
19. THE NETHERLANDS 

Table 19.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

101 

202520262027SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)4.54.51.61.81.41.21.11.11.12Private consumption6.66.51.72.11.41.21.21.41.53Gross fixed capital formation3.12.50.31.71.31.11.81.31.14Exports of goods and services5.34.73.73.82.31.82.52.42.25Imports of goods and services4.44.14.24.12.52.03.22.92.9Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand4.03.71.71.81.41.11.41.41.67- Change in inventories-0.30.00.2-0.10.10.00.10.00.08- Net exports1.20.9-0.10.00.10.0-0.3-0.2-0.39Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)1.41.10.60.2-0.1-0.410Output gap, as recalculated11.21.00.50.0-0.2-0.311Employment (% change)3.94.01.41.00.30.70.0-0.1-0.112Unemployment rate (%)3.53.53.93.84.13.94.24.44.613Labour productivity (% change)0.60.50.20.81.10.51.11.21.214HICP inflation (% change)11.611.62.94.93.23.32.22.22.315GDP deflator5.45.36.26.13.02.62.82.72.516Comp. of employees (per head, % change)3.33.95.95.55.14.85.24.94.217Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)6.54.56.66.06.86.26.76.76.51.21.10.4#Variables202220232024 
 
 
       
 
 
Table 19.2:  General government budgetary position 

The Netherlands 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

102 

202520262027Change: 2022-2027SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)43.544.542.043.641.943.642.442.542.5-1.0of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.411.411.811.811.812.011.711.711.70.23- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.14.214.312.913.813.013.813.213.613.5-0.64- Social contributions13.213.313.313.413.213.513.813.713.80.75- Other (residual)4.75.44.04.53.94.23.83.63.5-1.36RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.1n.a.n.a.7Revenue reductions financed by RRF grantsn.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)44.244.545.145.744.545.245.045.345.71.5of which:9- Primary expenditure43.743.944.445.043.844.544.344.544.71.0of which:10- Compensation of employees8.28.48.08.38.28.48.38.38.40.211- Intermediate consumption6.06.46.26.46.06.35.85.75.6-0.412- Social payments21.020.621.421.121.721.322.122.623.02.013- Subsidies2.11.92.62.82.02.21.92.01.9-0.214- Gross fixed capital formation3.33.23.43.33.53.33.63.73.60.315- Other (residual)2.93.42.83.12.52.92.52.22.2-0.816- Interest expenditure0.50.50.60.70.70.70.70.80.90.517=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.10.10.10.10.10.00.0n.a.n.a.18=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-0.70.0-3.0-2.1-2.6-1.7-2.6-2.8-3.2-2.519=1-9Primary balance-0.20.6-2.4-1.4-1.9-1.0-1.9-1.9-2.2-2.020Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-1.5-0.7-3.6-2.7-3.0-1.9-2.7-2.7-3.0-1.521=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balancen.a.-0.2n.a.-2.0n.a.-1.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.22One-off measures (% of GDP)0.20.00.10.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.223=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-1.7-0.7-3.7-2.7-3.0-1.9-2.7-2.7-3.0-1.324=23+16Structural primary balance-1.2-0.2-3.1-2.0-2.3-1.2-2.0-1.9-2.1-0.9202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
Table 19.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

The Netherlands 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

103 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.0.9-2.0-2.00.70.82Change in the structural primary balancen.a.0.9-1.9-1.90.70.9Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)1.71.70.33.5-2.7-0.75No2.0-1.5-0.30.00.10.4-0.50.10.0-0.10.60.5-1.10.10.0-0.1-0.2-0.10.0-0.4-0.91.20.00.00.0-0.5-1.11.1-0.5-1.11.1COMCOMCOM202220232024#Variables 
  
 
 
Table 19.4:  General government debt developments 

The Netherlands 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

104 

Average2025202620272017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)53.049.351.048.449.348.748.849.851.052.72=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-1.9-3.1-1.5-0.9-1.70.3-0.41.11.21.6Contributions2:3Primary balance-0.50.2-0.62.41.41.91.01.91.92.24=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.3-4.3-4.2-3.0-3.1-1.4-1.1-1.1-1.0-0.8of which:5- Interest expenditure0.80.50.50.60.70.70.70.70.80.96- Growth effect-0.9-2.1-2.1-0.7-0.9-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.57- Inflation effect-1.2-2.6-2.5-2.8-2.9-1.4-1.2-1.3-1.3-1.28'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.11.03.3-0.40.0-0.2-0.30.30.30.3202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 19.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

The Netherlands 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

105 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.10.10.10.10.10.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.10.10.10.10.10.1#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumption0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Social payments0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Interest expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Subsidies, payable0.00.00.00.10.10.00.06Current transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.10.10.10.10.00.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
          
 
20. AUSTRIA 

Table 20.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

106 

20252026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)5.05.00.30.41.81.62.12.02Private consumption4.14.11.31.42.02.12.42.23Gross fixed capital formation-0.9-0.90.00.01.01.12.42.34Exports of goods and services11.111.12.01.53.32.53.43.05Imports of goods and services5.75.72.12.03.22.33.13.3Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand2.52.50.70.61.41.41.92.17- Change in inventories-0.5-0.3-0.40.00.30.00.00.08- Net exports3.03.00.0-0.20.10.20.2-0.19Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)1.20.00.40.30.110Output gap, as recalculated11.1-0.3-0.20.00.211Employment (% change)2.62.60.70.61.20.90.60.412Unemployment rate (%)4.84.84.74.94.55.04.44.313Labour productivity (% change)2.32.3-0.5-0.20.60.71.51.614HICP inflation (% change)8.68.67.17.13.83.83.02.515GDP deflator5.05.07.17.24.24.23.12.616Comp. of employees (per head, % change)4.94.68.18.37.86.65.04.217Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)0.50.21.60.82.11.2n.a.n.a.202220232024#Variables1.10.00.2 
 
 
       
 
 
Table 20.2:  General government budgetary position 

Austria 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

107 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)49.549.549.149.149.048.848.848.6-0.9of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.813.814.214.013.913.913.713.6-0.23- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.14.414.413.513.813.713.513.613.8-0.64- Social contributions15.115.115.215.215.515.415.515.50.45- Other (residual)6.26.26.36.16.06.15.95.8-0.46RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.20.20.20.30.10.10.10.1-0.17Revenue reductions financed by RRF grantsn.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.8=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)52.752.752.351.650.650.150.149.9-2.8of which:9- Primary expenditure51.851.851.150.449.248.948.648.2-3.5of which:10- Compensation of employees10.310.310.410.510.610.610.510.30.011- Intermediate consumption7.27.26.66.86.46.56.36.2-1.012- Social payments22.522.522.422.022.622.522.622.50.013- Subsidies2.42.43.63.71.72.01.61.5-0.914- Gross fixed capital formation3.33.33.53.43.43.33.33.30.015- Other (residual)5.96.04.74.24.54.04.44.3-1.716- Interest expenditure0.90.91.21.11.41.31.51.60.717=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.20.20.30.30.10.10.10.1-0.118=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-3.2-3.2-3.2-2.4-1.6-1.3-1.4-1.31.919=1-9Primary balance-2.2-2.2-2.0-1.3-0.2-0.10.10.42.620Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-3.9-3.8-3.2-2.5-1.8-1.5-1.5-1.32.521=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-2.9-2.9-2.0-1.3-0.4-0.20.00.33.222One-off measures (% of GDP)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.023=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-3.9-3.8-3.2-2.5-1.8-1.5-1.5-1.32.524=23+16Structural primary balance-2.9-2.9-2.0-1.3-0.4-0.20.00.33.2202220232024#Variables 
       
 
 
Table 20.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Austria 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

108 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.0.60.61.41.41.02Change in the structural primary balancen.a.0.50.91.51.61.1Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#VariablesCOMCOMCOM-2.81.00.9-0.1-0.10.2-2.71.10.7-1.80.30.60.1-0.10.1-0.90.90.01.50.3-1.70.20.2-0.40.20.00.0-3.5-0.80.00.34.6-2.5-0.5No2.04.00.6 
  
 
 
Table 20.4:  General government debt developments 

Austria 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

109 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)77.778.478.477.075.475.172.773.371.42=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-0.1-4.0-4.0-1.4-3.0-1.9-2.7-1.8-1.9Contributions2:3Primary balance1.32.22.22.01.30.20.1-0.1-0.44=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.6-6.7-6.7-4.2-4.4-3.0-2.9-2.2-1.6of which:5- Interest expenditure1.50.90.91.21.11.41.31.51.66- Growth effect-0.7-3.7-3.7-0.2-0.3-1.3-1.1-1.5-1.47- Inflation effect-1.3-3.7-3.7-5.2-5.2-3.1-3.0-2.2-1.88'Stock-flow' adjustment-0.80.50.50.80.10.90.10.60.1202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 20.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Austria 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

110 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.10.20.20.10.10.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.10.00.30.10.10.1#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumption0.00.00.10.00.00.00.03Social payments0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Interest expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Subsidies, payable0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06Current transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.10.10.10.00.00.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Capital transfers0.00.00.10.10.10.10.110=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.10.20.10.10.1#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
21. POLAND 

Table 21.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

111 

20252026CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)5.15.10.90.72.82.73.23.02Private consumption3.33.30.7-0.12.52.72.72.73Gross fixed capital formation5.05.01.12.04.33.15.34.74Exports of goods and services6.26.21.72.33.93.63.93.75Imports of goods and services6.26.2-0.30.03.73.13.83.7Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand4.92.3-0.30.42.62.52.92.87- Change in inventories2.62.6-1.0-1.10.0-0.30.00.08- Net exports0.20.21.21.40.20.50.20.19Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)1.7-0.5-0.8-0.5-0.310Output gap, as recalculated11.8-0.9-1.5-0.70.111Employment (% change)0.50.4-0.30.10.40.30.40.012Unemployment rate (%)2.92.93.23.33.13.23.03.013Labour productivity (% change)n.a.4.7n.a.0.6n.a.2.4n.a.n.a.14HICP inflation (% change)13.213.211.611.76.56.03.93.115GDP deflator11.311.310.911.86.45.83.83.016Comp. of employees (per head, % change)15.013.211.612.79.68.36.65.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-2.7-2.80.5-0.50.81.11.41.01.9-1.0-1.7#Variables202220232024 
 
 
      
 
 
Table 21.2:  General government budgetary position 

Poland 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

112 

20252026Change: 2022-2026CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)39.839.841.841.741.341.141.440.81.0of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.713.715.015.014.414.414.414.20.53- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.67.67.47.47.87.67.98.10.54- Social contributions13.713.713.713.713.913.613.913.90.25- Other (residual)4.84.85.75.65.25.55.24.6-0.26RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.0n.a.0.8n.a.0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.7Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)43.543.546.646.644.744.844.343.80.3of which:9- Primary expenditure41.942.044.544.642.542.842.241.6-0.3of which:10- Compensation of employees9.79.79.89.89.99.99.79.6-0.111- Intermediate consumption6.36.36.36.36.36.36.26.2-0.112- Social payments17.117.117.217.117.417.617.918.11.013- Subsidies0.90.92.93.20.80.80.40.4-0.514- Gross fixed capital formation4.04.04.24.14.24.24.24.30.315- Other (residual)3.94.04.14.13.94.03.83.0-0.916- Interest expenditure1.61.62.12.02.22.12.12.20.617=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.00.70.80.80.80.90.30.318=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-3.7-3.7-4.7-5.0-3.4-3.7-2.9-2.90.819=1-9Primary balance-2.2-2.2-2.6-3.0-1.2-1.7-0.8-0.71.520Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-4.6-4.7-4.5-4.5-3.1-2.9-2.7-2.81.821=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-3.0-3.2-2.4-2.5-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.62.422One-off measures (% of GDP)0.30.30.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.323=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-4.8-5.0-4.5-4.5-3.1-2.9-2.7-2.82.024=23+16Structural primary balance-3.2-3.4-2.4-2.5-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.62.6202220232024#Variables 
      
 
 
Table 21.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Poland 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

113 

CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.-2.80.30.51.41.62Change in the structural primary balancen.a.-2.40.81.01.51.6Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)5.62.20.57.8-4.5-1.0No3.5-1.7-0.70.00.10.1-0.10.5-0.20.01.9-0.2-1.3-0.20.2-0.1-0.80.60.1-2.3-0.81.50.3-0.80.1-3.30.01.4-3.0-0.81.5COMCOMCOM202220232024#Variables 
  
 
 
Table 21.4:  General government debt developments 

Poland 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

114 

Average202520262017-2021CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)51.249.149.150.550.552.453.053.655.42=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-0.2-4.5-4.51.31.41.92.51.31.7Contributions2:3Primary balance0.92.22.22.63.01.21.70.80.74=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-2.2-6.3-6.2-3.2-3.5-2.1-1.9-1.4-0.9of which:5- Interest expenditure1.41.61.62.12.02.22.12.12.26- Growth effect-2.0-2.3-2.4-0.4-0.3-1.3-1.2-1.6-1.57- Inflation effect-1.5-5.2-5.2-4.8-5.1-3.0-2.7-1.8-1.58'Stock-flow' adjustment1.1-0.4-0.42.01.82.82.81.82.0202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 21.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Poland 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Convergence Programme. 

115 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.30.30.30.18Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Capital transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.10=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.40.50.60.2#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
          
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 21.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Loans 

Poland 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Convergence Programme. 

116 

#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Capital transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.10=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.20.20.20.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
       
 
22. PORTUGAL 

Table 22.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

117 

202520262027SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)6.76.71.82.42.01.82.01.91.82Private consumption5.85.80.60.51.31.51.41.51.63Gross fixed capital formation3.03.03.42.95.33.64.03.11.24Exports of goods and services16.716.74.35.44.03.24.34.14.05Imports of goods and services11.111.13.73.34.13.64.13.83.1Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand4.64.61.61.42.11.91.91.81.47- Change in inventories0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08- Net exports2.12.00.21.0-0.1-0.20.10.20.49Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)1.00.50.50.50.50.510Output gap, as recalculated11.41.30.90.80.70.611Employment (% change)2.02.00.30.50.50.60.30.20.112Unemployment rate (%)6.06.06.76.56.46.36.26.05.813Labour productivity (% change)4.64.61.41.91.51.11.71.71.714HICP inflation (% change)8.18.15.15.12.92.72.12.02.015GDP deflator4.44.45.75.83.02.32.42.32.116Comp. of employees (per head, % change)6.06.16.95.74.92.94.84.63.817Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-0.6-0.62.42.01.01.81.51.51.3202220232024#Variables1.31.71.3 
 
 
        
 
 
Table 22.2:  General government budgetary position 

Portugal 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

118 

202520262027Change: 2022-2027SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)44.444.444.444.443.944.243.743.342.2-2.1of which:2- Taxes on production and imports15.115.114.714.914.715.314.614.514.4-0.73- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.710.710.410.510.310.210.210.210.2-0.64- Social contributions12.412.412.212.112.212.012.212.312.3-0.15- Other (residual)6.16.17.27.06.86.76.66.45.4-0.76RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.30.31.41.41.31.31.10.9n.a.n.a.7Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0n.a.n.a.8=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)44.844.844.844.544.144.343.743.342.1-2.6of which:9- Primary expenditure42.842.842.542.441.441.641.040.539.3-3.5of which:10- Compensation of employees10.810.810.710.810.610.710.510.410.3-0.511- Intermediate consumption5.75.75.96.05.75.95.65.65.5-0.212- Social payments18.718.717.917.817.918.017.817.717.5-1.213- Subsidies1.11.11.10.90.60.50.60.60.6-0.514- Gross fixed capital formation2.52.53.23.13.43.23.53.42.90.415- Other (residual)4.14.13.53.93.13.43.02.92.6-1.516- Interest expenditure2.02.02.32.22.72.72.82.82.80.817=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.30.31.51.41.31.31.10.9n.a.n.a.18=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.10.00.10.519=1-9Primary balance1.61.61.92.02.62.62.72.82.91.320Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-1.0-1.1-0.6-1.1-0.4-0.8-0.4-0.2-0.20.821=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance1.00.91.71.12.31.92.42.62.61.622One-off measures (% of GDP)-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.20.00.00.00.00.00.123=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.8-0.4-0.8-0.4-0.2-0.20.724=23+16Structural primary balance1.11.11.81.32.31.92.42.62.61.5202220232024#Variables 
     
 
 
Table 22.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Portugal 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

119 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.0.40.40.00.00.02Change in the structural primary balancen.a.0.00.70.20.50.6Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#VariablesCOMCOMCOM-1.5-0.70.70.5-1.00.2-2.00.30.5-1.90.30.50.1-0.3-0.1-0.20.30.12.0-1.1-0.81.0-0.7-0.30.00.00.0-1.2-0.80.00.31.8-0.8-0.5No0.32.8-1.0 
  
 
 
Table 22.4:  General government debt developments 

Portugal 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

120 

Average2025202620272017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)124.9113.9113.9107.5106.2103.0103.199.295.692.02=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-1.2-11.5-11.5-6.4-7.7-4.5-3.1-3.8-3.5-3.6Contributions2:3Primary balance-0.7-1.6-1.6-1.9-2.0-2.6-2.6-2.7-2.8-2.94=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.5-10.9-10.9-5.7-6.6-2.5-1.5-1.6-1.2-0.9of which:5- Interest expenditure3.12.02.02.32.22.72.72.82.82.86- Growth effect-1.5-7.5-7.5-1.9-2.6-2.1-1.8-2.0-1.8-1.77- Inflation effect-2.1-5.0-5.0-6.0-6.1-3.1-2.4-2.4-2.2-2.08'Stock-flow' adjustment0.01.01.01.20.90.51.00.50.60.1202220232024#Variables 
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 22.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Portugal 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

121 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.31.41.31.10.92Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.80.21.51.40.70.7#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumption0.00.00.00.30.10.10.13Social payments0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Interest expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Subsidies, payable0.00.00.00.00.10.10.06Current transfers0.00.00.10.20.10.10.17=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.50.30.20.28Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.10.60.70.70.59Capital transfers0.00.00.10.40.30.20.210=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.21.01.00.90.7#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
           
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 22.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Loans 

Portugal 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

122 

#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.20.30.10.40.10.02Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumption0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Social payments0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Interest expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Subsidies, payable0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06Current transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.10.10.10.19Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.10.10.10.1#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.10.30.10.10.1Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
       
 
23. ROMANIA 

Table 23.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

123 

20252026CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)4.74.72.83.24.83.55.04.62Private consumption5.55.52.73.84.83.24.94.53Gross fixed capital formation8.08.06.87.08.88.09.17.34Exports of goods and services9.69.64.04.05.24.85.75.15Imports of goods and services9.99.94.75.16.05.56.25.5Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand6.16.13.74.05.74.55.75.17- Change in inventories-0.6-0.6-0.20.0-0.1-0.50.00.08- Net exports-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.6-0.59Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)-1.8-2.9-2.3-1.5-0.710Output gap, as recalculated1-1.4-2.2-1.20.01.011Employment (% change)n.a.0.10.5-0.31.00.01.10.812Unemployment rate (%)5.65.65.45.44.95.14.54.413Labour productivity (% change)4.64.62.33.53.83.43.93.814HICP inflation (% change)12.012.010.79.75.44.63.22.915GDP deflator13.413.49.710.75.45.83.63.316Comp. of employees (per head, % change)11.111.112.09.610.16.78.68.117Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-6.8-6.1-5.3-4.7-4.8-4.5-4.1-3.4202220232024#Variables-1.1-1.2-0.9 
 
 
       
 
 
Table 23.2:  General government budgetary position 

Romania 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

124 

20252026Change: 2022-2026CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)33.533.534.034.434.033.934.134.20.7of which:2- Taxes on production and imports10.710.710.710.710.710.710.710.70.03- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.5.95.95.66.55.37.05.35.4-0.54- Social contributions10.610.610.610.210.610.310.710.80.25- Other (residual)6.36.27.17.07.45.97.47.31.06RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.80.91.00.90.91.11.17Revenue reductions financed by RRF grantsn.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.8=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)39.739.738.439.236.938.237.037.1-2.6of which:9- Primary expenditure38.538.536.737.435.236.535.435.5-3.0of which:10- Compensation of employees9.99.99.59.19.29.28.88.5-1.411- Intermediate consumption5.85.85.45.65.25.85.14.9-0.912- Social payments13.413.412.412.711.813.211.711.7-1.713- Subsidies1.21.20.81.00.60.90.60.6-0.614- Gross fixed capital formation4.24.25.25.25.54.46.37.02.815- Other (residual)4.04.13.33.82.93.02.92.8-1.216- Interest expenditure1.21.21.71.81.71.71.61.60.417=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.00.80.91.00.90.90.80.818=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-6.2-6.2-4.4-4.7-3.0-4.4-2.9-2.93.319=1-9Primary balance-5.0-5.0-2.7-2.9-1.3-2.7-1.3-1.33.720Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-5.6-5.8-3.5-4.3-2.2-4.1-2.4-2.72.921=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-4.4-4.6-1.8-2.5-0.6-2.4-0.8-1.13.422One-off measures (% of GDP)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.023=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-5.6-5.8-3.5-4.3-2.2-4.1-2.4-2.72.924=23+16Structural primary balance-4.4-4.6-1.8-2.5-0.5-2.4-0.8-1.13.3202220232024#Variables 
       
 
 
Table 23.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Romania 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

125 

CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.0.42.11.51.30.32Change in the structural primary balancen.a.0.52.62.11.30.2Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#VariablesCOMCOMCOM0.00.90.7-0.6-0.71.30.61.5-0.60.81.6-0.30.6-0.3-0.5-0.80.30.20.3-0.1-0.40.7-0.3-0.40.00.00.0-0.80.00.00.67.5-4.3-1.0No3.311.0-3.5 
  
 
 
Table 23.4:  General government debt developments 

Romania 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

126 

Average202520262017-2021CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)40.147.347.347.145.646.146.145.845.42=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)2.1-1.3-1.4-0.2-1.6-1.00.4-0.3-0.4Contributions2:3Primary balance4.15.05.02.72.91.32.71.31.34=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-2.2-6.5-6.5-3.7-4.1-2.8-2.3-2.1-1.8of which:5- Interest expenditure1.11.21.21.71.81.71.71.61.66- Growth effect-1.4-1.9-1.9-1.2-1.3-2.0-1.4-2.1-2.07- Inflation effect-1.9-5.5-5.5-4.1-4.4-2.3-2.4-1.5-1.48'Stock-flow' adjustment0.30.10.10.8-0.50.50.00.50.1202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 23.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Romania 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Convergence Programme. 

127 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.00.00.81.00.91.12Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expendituren.a.0.00.00.20.20.10.18Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Capital transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.10=8+9Total capital expendituren.a.0.00.00.60.80.80.7#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
           
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 23.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Loans 

Romania 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Convergence Programme. 

128 

#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.1.00.61.30.90.52Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Intermediate consumptionn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expendituren.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.08Gross fixed capital formationn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.9Capital transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.10=8+9Total capital expendituren.a.0.00.00.20.40.91.5#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.10.10.2Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
        
 
24. SLOVENIA 

Table 24.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

129 

20252026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)5.45.41.81.22.52.22.62.52Private consumption8.98.91.21.71.81.91.81.83Gross fixed capital formation7.87.82.83.92.23.85.05.04Exports of goods and services6.56.52.72.84.14.04.24.05Imports of goods and services9.89.81.82.83.64.24.34.2Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand6.36.31.51.91.92.22.52.57- Change in inventories1.11.1-0.5-0.60.00.00.00.08- Net exports-2.1-2.10.80.00.60.00.10.09Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)3.11.81.41.21.010Output gap, as recalculated16.12.21.30.80.411Employment (% change)2.42.41.00.70.70.50.40.312Unemployment rate (%)-11.44.0-5.13.9-5.03.8-2.7-3.013Labour productivity (% change)10.32.98.60.55.81.74.84.514HICP inflation (% change)8.89.37.17.04.23.82.42.015GDP deflator7.27.27.77.33.94.32.52.216Comp. of employees (per head, % change)4.34.37.37.75.85.35.45.217Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-1.0-0.4n.a.1.0n.a.1.8n.a.n.a.202220232024#Variables4.32.61.6 
 
 
          
 
 
Table 24.2:  General government budgetary position 

Slovenia 

1 Slovenia prepared its Stability Programme based on EDP figures for 2022 that had been notified but not yet validated by 
Eurostat. Eurostat’s validation process led to revisions in the general government deficit and its components in 2022. The 
validated figures are shown in the column ‘COM’. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

130 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SP1COMSP1COMSP1COMSP1SP1SP11=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)42.742.542.442.641.841.841.641.5-1.2of which:2- Taxes on production and imports12.912.912.312.612.412.712.111.9-1.03- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.97.77.57.57.67.47.88.00.14- Social contributions15.815.815.815.815.715.615.816.20.45- Other (residual)6.16.16.96.76.06.05.95.4-0.66RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.20.10.60.40.50.40.60.20.07Revenue reductions financed by RRF grantsn.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.8=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)46.645.546.546.344.544.743.842.8-3.8of which:9- Primary expenditure45.544.445.345.143.243.442.541.5-4.1of which:10- Compensation of employees10.910.910.911.010.810.910.911.00.111- Intermediate consumption6.26.26.06.16.06.05.95.8-0.512- Social payments17.917.917.017.517.317.617.417.3-0.613- Subsidies1.31.32.51.91.51.31.11.0-0.314- Gross fixed capital formation5.25.26.46.15.55.05.14.3-0.915- Other (residual)3.92.82.52.42.12.42.12.0-1.916- Interest expenditure1.11.11.21.21.31.31.31.30.217=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.10.50.40.50.40.60.30.218=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-3.9-3.0-4.1-3.7-2.8-2.9-2.2-1.32.619=1-9Primary balance-2.9-1.9-2.9-2.5-1.5-1.6-0.80.02.920Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-5.4-5.0-4.9-4.9-3.4-3.7-2.7-1.83.621=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-4.3-4.0-3.8-3.7-2.1-2.3-1.4-0.53.922One-off measures (% of GDP)n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.23=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-5.4-5.0-4.9-4.9-3.4-3.7-2.7-1.83.624=23+16Structural primary balance-4.3-4.0-3.8-3.7-2.1-2.3-1.4-0.53.9202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
Table 24.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Slovenia 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

131 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.0.50.50.21.51.22Change in the structural primary balancen.a.0.40.50.21.71.4Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#VariablesCOMCOMCOM-1.2-1.22.30.1-0.80.6-1.3-0.41.7-0.4-0.31.1-0.7-0.10.6-0.20.00.01.0-0.2-0.90.6-0.5-0.10.10.00.0-3.1-1.00.0-4.90.75No5.60.55.53.02.5 
  
 
 
Table 24.4:  General government debt developments 

Slovenia 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

132 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)72.869.969.968.969.166.566.665.063.52=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-0.8-4.6-4.5-1.0-0.8-2.4-2.5-1.5-1.5Contributions2:3Primary balance0.42.91.92.92.51.51.60.80.04=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-2.0-7.5-7.5-5.0-4.4-2.9-3.0-1.9-1.6of which:5- Interest expenditure1.81.11.11.21.21.31.31.31.36- Growth effect-2.4-3.6-3.5-1.1-0.8-1.6-1.4-1.6-1.67- Inflation effect-1.4-4.7-4.8-5.0-4.7-2.5-2.8-1.6-1.48'Stock-flow' adjustment0.80.21.01.11.1-1.1-1.1-0.40.2202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 24.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Slovenia 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

133 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.20.60.50.60.22Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.40.00.10.40.30.3#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumptionn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.03Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.0.00.00.10.10.10.16Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.10.10.10.18Gross fixed capital formation0.00.20.10.40.40.50.29Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.20.10.40.40.50.2#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
          
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 24.6:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Loans 

Slovenia 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

134 

#Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0.00.00.00.00.40.30.32Repayments of RRF loans to EU0.00.00.00.0n.a.n.a.n.a.#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumptionn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.03Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.06Current transfersn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.10.30.30.29Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.0n.a.n.a.10=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.10.30.30.2#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.0n.a.n.a.2Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.0n.a.n.a.3Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.0n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
        
 
25. SLOVAKIA 

Table 25.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

135 

20252026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)1.71.71.31.71.82.12.71.92Private consumption5.15.50.70.61.10.81.51.33Gross fixed capital formation6.55.914.69.01.23.71.3-3.34Exports of goods and services1.02.31.33.26.96.16.65.45Imports of goods and services3.04.04.23.96.25.25.23.8Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand3.73.44.62.81.01.51.20.27- Change in inventories0.1-0.1-0.9-0.10.00.00.00.08- Net exports-1.9-1.6-2.7-0.90.70.61.41.79Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)-1.0-1.2-1.2-0.10.510Output gap, as recalculated10.4-0.9-1.3-0.50.111Employment (% change)1.81.80.50.60.50.10.60.412Unemployment rate (%)6.26.15.85.85.45.45.25.213Labour productivity (% change)-0.1-0.10.81.21.32.02.11.514HICP inflation (% change)12.112.19.710.95.55.74.32.215GDP deflator7.67.57.89.85.55.74.12.516Comp. of employees (per head, % change)6.46.08.99.77.87.46.44.217Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-5.8-7.9-5.1-6.7-4.5-5.3-3.8-3.0202220232024#Variables0.0-0.7-0.7 
 
 
       
 
 
Table 25.2:  General government budgetary position 

Slovakia 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

136 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)40.240.242.441.639.439.638.938.6-1.6of which:2- Taxes on production and imports11.911.912.211.611.811.311.411.1-0.73- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.18.17.88.07.67.97.57.5-0.64- Social contributions14.914.915.415.015.715.115.615.80.95- Other (residual)5.45.47.07.14.45.34.44.2-1.26RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.01.21.20.71.30.50.30.37Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)42.342.348.747.744.144.444.043.51.2of which:9- Primary expenditure41.241.247.846.742.943.342.742.00.8of which:10- Compensation of employees10.610.610.410.710.310.79.99.6-1.011- Intermediate consumption5.95.98.26.15.76.05.65.4-0.512- Social payments17.917.919.119.119.519.119.219.51.613- Subsidies1.11.12.03.20.70.90.70.7-0.414- Gross fixed capital formation3.33.35.14.94.04.13.82.9-0.415- Other (residual)2.42.43.02.72.82.53.53.81.516- Interest expenditure1.01.01.01.11.21.21.41.50.517=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.01.21.20.71.30.50.30.318=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.0-6.3-6.1-4.7-4.8-5.2-4.9-2.919=1-9Primary balance-1.0-1.0-5.3-5.0-3.5-3.6-3.8-3.4-2.420Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-1.7-2.0-5.8-5.8-4.3-4.5-5.1-5.1-3.421=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance-0.6-1.0-4.9-4.8-3.1-3.3-3.8-3.6-3.022One-off measures (% of GDP)-0.90.0-1.50.00.00.00.00.00.923=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-0.8-2.0-4.3-5.8-4.3-4.5-5.1-5.1-4.324=23+16Structural primary balance0.2-1.0-3.4-4.8-3.1-3.3-3.8-3.6-3.8202220232024#Variables 
       
 
 
Table 25.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Slovakia 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

137 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.3.5-3.5-3.80.01.32Change in the structural primary balancen.a.3.4-3.6-3.80.31.4Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#VariablesCOMCOMCOM1.3-6.22.90.1-1.61.21.3-4.61.71.3-4.41.7-0.2-0.1-0.10.1-0.10.10.21.8-2.00.2-0.20.00.1-0.10.0-2.4-0.80.0-5.80.25No6.10.75.73.62.1 
  
 
 
Table 25.4:  General government debt developments 

Slovakia 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

138 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)53.757.857.858.758.359.358.759.863.12=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)1.8-3.2-3.20.90.50.60.40.53.3Contributions2:3Primary balance1.51.01.05.55.03.53.63.83.44=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-0.9-4.2-4.2-3.9-5.0-2.8-3.1-2.5-1.0of which:5- Interest expenditure1.31.01.01.01.11.21.21.41.56- Growth effect-1.1-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.9-1.0-1.1-1.5-1.17- Inflation effect-1.0-4.2-4.2-4.1-5.1-3.0-3.1-2.3-1.48'Stock-flow' adjustment1.2-0.1-0.1-0.80.4-0.1-0.1-0.80.9202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 25.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Slovakia 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

139 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.01.20.70.50.32Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.81.01.31.20.80.2#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employeesn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumptionn.a.0.00.00.10.10.10.03Social paymentsn.a.n.a.n.a.0.00.00.00.04Interest expendituren.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.6Current transfersn.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.00.20.10.10.18Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.61.00.60.40.29Capital transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.01.00.60.40.2#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
26. FINLAND 

Table 26.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

140 

20252026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)2.12.1-0.20.21.31.41.61.62Private consumption2.12.1-0.60.11.41.22.02.03Gross fixed capital formation5.05.0-0.6-0.10.20.42.51.74Exports of goods and services1.71.71.21.63.93.63.83.55Imports of goods and services7.57.5-1.5-1.32.82.24.13.5Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand3.03.0-0.10.30.80.81.81.67- Change in inventories1.41.9-1.3-1.50.00.00.00.08- Net exports-2.3-2.31.21.30.40.6-0.20.09Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)-0.5-1.7-1.5-0.9-0.510Output gap, as recalculated1-0.3-1.5-1.2-0.7-0.111Employment (% change)2.52.5-0.4-0.20.30.40.40.512Unemployment rate (%)6.86.87.07.16.86.86.66.413Labour productivity (% change)-0.4-0.40.20.41.01.01.11.114HICP inflation (% change)7.27.24.04.81.92.12.02.015GDP deflator4.24.24.14.42.22.42.32.216Comp. of employees (per head, % change)3.73.25.04.53.63.83.13.017Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-3.8-3.8-1.7-1.9-1.2-1.2-1.3-1.4202220232024#Variables-0.5-1.4-1.1 
 
 
          
 
 
Table 26.2:  General government budgetary position 

Finland 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

141 

20252026Change: 2022-2026SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)52.652.652.852.553.052.552.652.1-0.5of which:2- Taxes on production and imports13.613.613.213.113.012.812.712.5-1.13- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.17.117.116.816.817.116.916.916.9-0.24- Social contributions12.012.012.112.112.011.912.111.9-0.15- Other (residual)9.99.810.710.510.910.810.910.80.96RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.30.20.20.20.10.0-0.17Revenue reductions financed by RRF grantsn.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.8=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)53.453.455.455.055.555.055.755.01.6of which:9- Primary expenditure52.952.954.654.254.253.854.453.60.7of which:10- Compensation of employees12.412.412.512.412.412.312.512.50.111- Intermediate consumption11.511.512.012.012.011.911.811.60.112- Social payments20.820.821.521.321.721.521.621.40.613- Subsidies1.11.10.90.90.90.90.90.9-0.214- Gross fixed capital formation4.14.14.54.54.54.45.04.70.615- Other (residual)3.03.03.23.02.72.72.62.5-0.516- Interest expenditure0.50.50.80.81.31.21.31.40.917=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.10.20.20.20.20.10.0-0.118=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)-0.8-0.9-2.6-2.6-2.6-2.6-3.1-2.9-2.119=1-9Primary balance-0.3-0.3-1.7-1.7-1.3-1.3-1.8-1.5-1.220Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)-0.5-0.6-1.6-1.8-1.7-1.9-2.6-2.6-2.121=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance0.00.0-0.7-1.0-0.4-0.7-1.3-1.2-1.222One-off measures (% of GDP)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.023=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)-0.5-0.6-1.6-1.8-1.7-1.9-2.6-2.6-2.124=23+16Structural primary balance0.00.0-0.8-1.0-0.4-0.7-1.3-1.2-1.2202220232024#Variables 
          
 
 
Table 26.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Finland 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

142 

SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.1.7-1.1-1.2-0.1-0.12Change in the structural primary balancen.a.1.7-0.8-0.90.40.3Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)202220232024#VariablesCOMCOMCOM-0.1-1.00.4-0.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.90.40.1-0.60.20.0-0.40.1-0.20.00.10.10.2-0.30.00.0-0.10.10.20.0-1.7-0.20.00.32.2-1.8-0.5No1.32.8-0.6 
  
 
 
Table 26.4:  General government debt developments 

Finland 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

143 

Average202520262017-2021SPCOMSPCOMSPCOMSPSP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)67.773.073.074.473.976.976.279.080.72=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)1.90.40.41.40.92.52.32.11.7Contributions2:3Primary balance1.40.30.31.71.71.31.31.81.54=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.1-3.9-3.8-1.8-2.4-1.2-1.5-1.6-1.5of which:5- Interest expenditure0.80.50.50.90.81.31.21.31.46- Growth effect-0.8-1.4-1.40.1-0.1-0.9-1.0-1.2-1.27- Inflation effect-1.0-2.9-2.9-2.9-3.1-1.6-1.7-1.7-1.68'Stock-flow' adjustment1.64.03.91.51.52.42.51.91.7202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 26.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Finland 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Stability Programme. 

144 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.00.10.30.20.10.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.10.10.10.10.10.1#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.00.00.10.00.00.02Intermediate consumption0.00.00.00.10.00.00.03Social payments0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4Interest expenditure0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5Subsidies, payablen.a.0.00.00.00.00.00.06Current transfers0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.7=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.00.10.10.10.00.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Capital transfers0.00.00.00.10.10.10.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00.10.10.10.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
          
 
27. SWEDEN 

Table 27.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

1 Output gap as recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario, using the commonly agreed 
methodology. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (SP). 

145 

20252026CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCP1=6+7+8Real GDP (% change)2.62.6-1.0-0.51.21.12.63.22Private consumption2.12.1-1.4-1.71.71.23.04.23Gross fixed capital formation5.25.2-4.2-3.2-0.1-0.24.45.84Exports of goods and services6.66.62.32.02.62.62.23.45Imports of goods and services8.78.7-0.7-1.11.51.42.33.8Contributions to real GDP growth (pps.)6- Final domestic demand2.22.2-1.6-1.40.60.52.53.27- Change in inventories1.01.0-0.8-0.70.00.00.00.08- Net exports-0.6-0.61.41.60.60.70.10.09Output gap, as planned (% of potential GDP)1.3-1.3-1.9-1.00.010Output gap, as recalculated10.5-1.9-2.1-1.4-0.211Employment (% change)2.72.70.20.2-0.20.30.81.412Unemployment rate (%)7.57.57.97.78.38.28.27.513Labour productivity (% change)-0.1-0.1-1.4-0.71.40.91.81.914HICP inflation (% change)8.18.15.96.02.11.91.91.915GDP deflator5.75.75.15.72.01.61.92.116Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.92.85.04.03.33.73.63.917Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)4.64.56.26.06.26.45.25.00.3-1.8-2.1#Variables202220232024 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 27.2:  General government budgetary position 

Sweden 

Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (SP). 

146 

20252026Change: 2022-2026CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCP1=2+3+4+5Revenue (% of GDP)48.948.948.147.947.247.047.146.9-2.0of which:2- Taxes on production and imports21.521.521.721.521.120.821.121.1-0.43- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.17.417.417.117.016.816.816.816.8-0.64- Social contributions3.33.33.33.33.33.43.33.30.05- Other (residual)6.76.76.06.16.06.05.95.7-1.06RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.20.10.10.20.10.10.00.0-0.27Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.08=9+16Expenditure (% of GDP)48.148.148.548.847.947.546.945.5-2.6of which:9- Primary expenditure47.647.648.048.147.347.046.344.9-2.7of which:10- Compensation of employees11.811.812.111.811.911.911.711.4-0.411- Intermediate consumption7.97.98.07.77.97.57.87.5-0.412- Social payments14.814.815.014.915.215.014.914.4-0.413- Subsidies1.61.61.61.61.51.71.41.4-0.214- Gross fixed capital formation4.94.94.74.95.24.85.24.7-0.215- Other (residual)6.66.66.67.35.66.15.35.5-1.116- Interest expenditure0.50.50.50.70.60.60.60.60.117=6-7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.20.10.20.20.00.10.00.0-0.118=1-8General government balance (% of GDP)0.70.7-0.4-0.9-0.6-0.50.21.40.719=1-9Primary balance1.21.20.1-0.2-0.10.10.82.00.820Cyclically adjusted balance (% of potential GDP)0.00.60.00.10.60.71.11.71.721=20+16Cyclically adjusted primary balance0.71.10.70.81.31.31.82.41.722One-off measures (% of GDP)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.023=20-22Structural balance (% of potential GDP)0.00.60.00.10.60.71.11.71.724=23+16Structural primary balance0.51.10.50.81.21.31.72.31.8202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
Table 27.3:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Sweden 

1 The fiscal stance is measured as the change in general government primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary 
impact of discretionary revenue measures and COVID-19 pandemic-related temporary emergency measures, excluding cyclical 
unemployment expenditure, but including the change in expenditure financed by non-repayable support (grants) from the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds, relative to the medium-term (10-year) average potential nominal GDP 
growth rate. A negative (positive) sign indicates an excess (a shortfall) of net primary expenditure growth over medium-term 
potential GDP growth, corresponding to an expansionary (a contractionary) fiscal stance. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
2 Energy support measures less revenue from new (taxes and levies on) windfall profits by energy producers. 
3 Annual (minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective, with a benchmark of 
0.5% of GDP, and taking into account fiscal sustainability considerations, as well as, where applicable, the need to reduce the 
general government deficit to below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP. For more details, see Box 1 on page 3. 
4 Corresponding (maximum) growth rate of nationally financed primary expenditure, net of the incremental budgetary impact of 
discretionary revenue measures, and excluding cyclical unemployment expenditure, consistent with achieving the annual 
(minimum) improvement in the structural balance towards the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO). 
5 A negative (positive) sign indicates that, assuming unchanged policies, net nationally financed primary expenditure in the 
Commission 2023 spring forecast is projected to grow at a rate above (below) the recommended growth rate. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (SP). 

147 

CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMBalance-based structural fiscal indicators1Change in the structural balance (pps. of potential GDP)n.a.0.30.0-0.50.60.62Change in the structural primary balancen.a.0.60.0-0.30.70.5Net expenditure-based structural fiscal indicators3=4+5Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding pandemic-related temporary emergency measures)1 (% of GDP)of which contribution from:4- EU-financed expenditure (including by RRF grants and other EU funds) (pps. of GDP)5=6+7+8- Nationally financed net primary expenditureincluding,6- Nationally financed net primary current expenditure7- Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation8- Nationally financed other capital expenditurep.m.: Energy measures and support to persons fleeing Ukraine (% of GDP)9Change in total net budgetary cost of energy measures210Change in net budgetary cost of targeted energy support measures(current expenditure)11Change in budgetary cost of support to persons fleeing Ukraine(current expenditure)p.m.: Pandemic-related measures (% of GDP)12Change in total budgetary cost of pandemic-related temporary emergency measuresBackground structural fiscal indicators13Structural balance in 2023 (% of potential GDP)14Medium-term budgetary objective (MTO)15At or above MTO at the start of the year?16=14-13Distance to MTO (pps. of potential GDP)Setting the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202417Recommended (minimum) fiscal adjustment318Recommended (maximum) growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure4(% change)Monitoring delivery of the recommended fiscal adjustment for 202419Growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure (% change)20=18-19Difference from recommended growth in net nationally financed primary expenditure5 (pps.)1.1n.a.na.na.0.1-1.0Yesn.a.-0.9-1.10.00.00.00.00.2-0.10.00.2-0.10.0-0.10.10.1-0.20.0-0.10.8-0.21.00.00.00.10.4-0.11.10.4-0.11.2COMCOMCOM202220232024#Variables 
  
 
 
Table 27.4:  General government debt developments 

Sweden 

1 End of period. 
2 The 'snow-ball' effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated general government debt, as well as the 
impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (through the denominator). The ‘stock-flow 
adjustment’ includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursement of EU funds), 
accumulation of financial assets, and valuation and other residual effects. 
Source: Commission 2023 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (SP). 

148 

Average202520262017-2021CPCOMCPCOMCPCOMCPCP1Gross debt ratio1 (% of GDP)38.433.033.031.031.431.030.729.827.72=3+4+8Change in the ratio (pps. of GDP)-1.1-3.5-3.5-2.0-1.50.0-0.7-1.1-2.2Contributions2:3Primary balance-0.4-1.2-1.2-0.10.20.1-0.1-0.8-2.04=5+6+7'Snow-ball' effect-1.3-2.4-2.4-0.8-0.9-0.5-0.3-0.7-0.9of which:5- Interest expenditure0.40.50.50.50.70.60.60.60.66- Growth effect-0.7-0.9-0.90.30.2-0.4-0.3-0.8-0.97- Inflation effect-0.9-1.9-1.9-1.6-1.8-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.68'Stock-flow' adjustment0.50.00.0-1.1-0.80.3-0.40.40.8202220232024#Variables 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 27.5:  Recovery and Resilience Facility - Grants 

Sweden 

For details on the approach for the statistical recording of Recovery and Resilience Facility-related flows, see Box 2 on page 5. 
Source: Convergence Programme. 

149 

#Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)20202021202220232024202520261RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.10.20.10.10.00.02Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU0.00.00.00.30.20.10.0#20202021202220232024202520261Compensation of employees0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Intermediate consumption0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Social payments0.00.00.00.00.00.00.04Interest expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.00.05Subsidies, payable0.00.00.00.00.00.00.06Current transfers0.00.00.00.00.00.00.07=1+2+3+4+5+6Total current expenditure0.00.10.10.10.00.00.08Gross fixed capital formation0.00.00.00.00.00.00.09Capital transfers0.00.10.10.10.00.00.010=8+9Total capital expenditure0.00.10.10.10.00.00.0#20202021202220232024202520261Reduction in tax revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.02Other costs with impact on revenue0.00.00.00.00.00.00.03Financial transactions0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)