COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT Accompanying the document Proposal for a REGULATION OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL amending Regulation (EU) 2019/1242 as regards strengthening the CO₂ emission performance standards for new heavy-duty vehicles and integrating reporting obligations, and repealing Regulation (EU) 2018/956
Date: 2023-02-14
Institutions: Directorate-General for Climate Action, European Commission
Subjects: EU environmental policy, bus, commercial vehicle, environmental standard, exchange of information, greenhouse gas, large vehicle, motor vehicle pollution, pollution control measures, reduction of gas emissions

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   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Strasbourg, 14.2.2023  SWD(2023) 89 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT  Accompanying the document Proposal for a REGULATION OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL amending Regulation (EU) 2019/1242 as regards strengthening the CO₂ emission performance standards for new heavy-duty vehicles and integrating reporting obligations, and repealing Regulation (EU) 2018/956                                                                                    {COM(2023) 88 final} - {SEC(2023) 100 final} - {SWD(2023) 88 final}  
 
 
Executive Summary Sheet  

Impact  assessment  on  the  Revision  of  the  CO2  emission  performance  standards  for  new  heavy-duty  
vehicles   

A. Need for action 

What is the problem and why is it a problem at EU level?  

Three key problems have been identified at the EU level: (1) heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) contribute 
insufficiently to increased ambition on GHG emissions reduction and need to reduce EU energy 
dependency; (2) transport operators and consumers missing out on the opportunities of energy-savings and 
related cost-reductions; and (3) the HDV value chain in the EU is at risk of losing its technological and 
innovation leadership.  
What should be achieved? 

The  initiative  aims  to  achieve  the  following  specific  objectives:  (1)  contribute  to  the  2030  at  least  55% 
GHG emissions reduction target and to the 2050 climate neutrality objective, by reducing CO2 emission 
from  HDV cost-effectively,  in line  with  the EU  climate  goals  while  contributing to  improve EU  energy 
security; (2) provide benefits for transport operators and users, resulting from a wider deployment of more 
energy-efficient vehicles; (3) strengthen the technological and innovation leadership of the EU automotive 
value chain and stimulating employment. 

What is the value added of action at the EU level (subsidiarity)?  

Climate change is a transboundary problem. Without EU action, national and local action are likely to be 
insufficient  and    risk  fragmenting  the  internal  market.  EU  action  would  provide  the  entire  automotive 
value chain  with  the necessary long-term,  stable  market  signal  and regulatory certainty needed for large 
capital investments necessary to deploy zero-emission vehicles.  

B. Solutions 

What are the various options to achieve the objectives? Is there a preferred option or not? If not, 
why? 

Various  policy  options  were  explored,  grouped  in  three  main  categories:  (i)  extension  of  the  scope;  (ii) 
CO2  emission  target  levels  and  timing  for  new  HDV;  (iii)  specific  regulatory  mechanisms,  such  as 
incentive schemes for zero- and low-emission vehicles (ZLEV); (iv) mechanism to account the potential 
contribution  of  renewable  and  low-carbon  fuels  for  the  purpose  of  target  compliance  assessment;  (v) 
governance issues.  

Under the preferred option, several currently unregulated HDVs are included within the regulatory scope. 
The CO2 emission targets decrease in five-year steps and are significantly strengthened as of 2030. Cost-
optimal  energy  efficiency  standards  are  set  for  trailers.  Small  volume  manufacturers  are  exempted  from 
meeting  the  targets.  The  possible  excess  emissions  premium  revenues  remain  part  of  the  general  EU 
budget.  

The  current  incentive mechanism  for ZLEV is  removed as of 2030. A  100% mandate for zero-emission 
urban buses is set by 2030. No mechanism to account for the potential contribution of renewable and low-
carbon  fuels  is  introduced.  On  governance,  some  flexibility  is  included  to  ensure  a  cost-effective 
implementation of the legislation while safeguarding its environmental integrity.  

What are different stakeholders' views? Who supports which option?  

Based on the results of the OPC and the feedback of the CfE,  stakeholders  generally support the scope 
extension  while  exempting  small  volume  manufacurers.  Extending  the  scope  to  trailers  was  generally 
supported with the exception of some transport operators.  

 
 
Environmental  NGOs  and  ZEV  manufacturers  called  for  the  greatest  ambition  supporting  a  100% 
reduction  by  2035  and  the  adoption  of  interim  objectives  between  2025  and  2030  combined  with  a 
strengthening  of  the  2030  target.  Large  vehicle  manufacturers,  transport  operators,  component  suppliers 
and suppliers of fuels and gases supported less ambitious targets providing mixed views ranging generally 
from low to medium ambition levels. Large manufacturers and fuel suppliers in particular did not favour 
setting a 100% reduction target by a certain date. Large vehicle manufacturers, component suppliers and 
transport  operators  supported  the  current  5-year  steps  extension  while  NGOs  and  ZEV  manufacturers 
called for targets decreasing in shorter steps.  

Manufacturers and transport operators supported maintaining the ZLEV incentive mechanism after 2030 
whereas  NGOs  called  for  its  removal  after  2030  and  to  limit  the  incentive  up  to  2030  only  for  specific 
vehicles categories. Suppliers of electricity and hydrogen support a scheme benefiting only ZEV. Setting a 
ZEV  mandate  for  urban  buses  was  supported  by  NGOs  and  ZEV  manufacturers  and  by  some  larger 
manufacturers. The other large manufacturers and suppliers of fuels were against any ZEV mandate.  

Suppliers  of  gases  and  fuels  supported  the  introduction  of  a  mechanism  to  account  for  fuels  in  the 
standards while NGOs argued against and large manufacturers expressed mixed views. 

C. Impacts of the preferred option 

What are the benefits of the preferred option (if any, otherwise of main ones)?                                     

The  projected  (tailpipe)  cumulative  emission  reductions  between  2031  and  2050  are  35-48%  for  motor 
HDV, compared to the baseline and additional 1.4% for trailers as  from 2031, compared to the  medium 
scenario. The HDV standards contribute to reducing air pollutants by around 7 to 17% % in 2035, 15 to 
38% in 2040 and by 66 to 80% in 2050, compared to the baseline.  
Benefits in terms of average net savings in total cost of ownership for the first user are up to 6000-9800, 
17 400 – 25 800 and 29100 – 47 000 EUR/vehicle for 2030, 2035 and 2040. Net savings for the second 
and third users show similar trends, with smaller benefits. Societal benefits over the lifetime are estimated 
at 2 400-6 300, 18 300-31 900 and 33 7000-59 800 EUR/vehicle for 2030, 2035 and 2040. Net savings for 
first users of new trailers registered in 2030 show savings of 9 000-29 000 EUR/trailer, depending of the 
type, while net economic savings over the vehicle lifetime from a societal perspective scale up to 11 500-
42 500 EUR/vehicle.  
Over  the  period  of  2031  to  2050,  final  energy  consumption  from  motor  HDVs  decreases  by  11-19% 
compared to baseline. Savings in fossil fuels (mostly diesel) in the range 215 - 281 Mtoe are achieved with 
respect to the baseline, reducing the import dependency of the EU economy by 150-200 bn EUR. Setting 
energy efficiency standards in trailers saves additional 23 Mtoe of fossil fuel over the period 2031 to 2050, 
equivalent to 16 bn EUR.   
Net jobs increase in 2030, and even more in 2040 and 2050, and GDP is projected to grow 0.06% -0.11% 
by 2040.  
What are the costs of the preferred option (if any, otherwise of main ones)?                                    

Costs for HDV manufacturers increase as additional technologies need to be deployed in new vehicles to 
meet the stricter CO2 targets: 3 400-9 700, 5 300-11 800 and 6 500-13 100 EUR/vehicles for 2030, 2035 
and 2040. This would need additional investments from manufacturers estimated at around EUR 4.9 to 8.7 
billion annually, between 2031 and 2050.  

Extra costs per average trailer or semitrailer are 2500-5 250 EUR/vehicle compared to a 2020 baseline. 

What are the impacts on SMEs and competitiveness?  

Medium  and  small  enterprises  find  no  affordability  restrictions  across  any  of  the  three  ambition  target 
scenarios. Their total cost of ownership also shows savings. Second hand ZEVs are always affordable. 

The  development  and  supply  of  ZEV  (ZEV  shares  in  %:  20-35,  35-57  and  57-100  by  2030,  2035  and 

 
 
2040),  leads  to  a  positive  impact  on  innovation  and  industry’s  technological  leadership  and 
competitiveness.  

Will there be significant impacts on national budgets and administrations?  

While the overall GDP impacts will be positive, the fuel duty revenue loss in 2030 is estimated at around 
0.004% of the EU-27 GDP. These losses can be balanced at the Member State level, for example through 
indirect  taxation.  There  are  no  significant  administrative  impacts  on  national  administrations  as  needed 
provisions are already put in place. 

Will there be other significant impacts?  

Providing  a  clear  regulatory  signal  and  predictability  for  industry  to  develop  and  invest  in  fuel-efficient 
HDVs will encourage technological innovation development of the industry in the EU.  

Proportionality?  

The proposed action is proportionate to achieve the climate objectives that the EU has committed to. 

D. Follow up 

When will the policy be reviewed?  

A  review  of  the  effectiveness  of  the  new  legislation  will  be  foreseen,  aligned  with  the  review  of  other 
pieces of legislation contributing to the increased climate ambition.