REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS The Third Clean Air Outlook
Date: 2022-12-21
Institutions: Directorate-General for Environment, European Commission
Subjects: EU emission allowance, EU environmental policy, air quality, atmospheric pollutant, environmental cooperation, environmental impact, environmental protection, pollution control, prevention of pollution, reduction of gas emissions

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 1.12.2022  COM(2022) 673 final  REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS The Third Clean Air Outlook  
 
 
The Third Clean Air Outlook 

1. 

INTRODUCTION 

Air pollution has decreased over the last decades in the EU,  as a result of EU clean air 
legislation and joint action taken by the EU and national, regional and local authorities. 
Yet air quality remains a serious concern for European citizens1. 

The  EU’s  approach  to  improving  air  quality  involves  taking  action  in  three  areas  (or 
‘pillars’). The first is the ambient air quality standards set out in the Ambient Air Quality 
Directives2.  The  second  is  to  set  national  emission  reduction  obligations  under  the 
National  Emission  reduction  Commitments  Directive  (NEC  Directive)3  for  the  main 
transboundary  air  pollutants4.  The  third  is  to  set  emission  standards  at  EU  level,  laid 
down  in  legislation,  for  key  sources  of  pollution,  from  vehicle  and  ship  emissions  to 
energy and industry, as well as eco-design requirements for boilers and stoves.  

All three pillars evolve to adapt to new policy and scientific developments. In particular, 
following the mandate  under the European Green Deal  and the EU’s  ambition to  reach 
zero pollution for a toxic-free environment, the Commission recently proposed to revise 
the  Ambient  Air  Quality  Directives5.  The  proposal  puts  the  EU  on  a  path  to  achieve 
zero  pollution  for  air  at  the  latest  by  2050  and  sets  interim  2030  ambient  air  quality 
standards  aligned  more  closely  with  the  updated  air  quality  guidelines  issued  by  the 
World Health Organization (WHO) for key air pollutants6. 

As regards the NEC Directive,  compliance  checks are carried out  against  the national 
emission reduction commitments for 2020-2029 for the five most harmful transboundary 
air  pollutants.  The  first  compliance  check  took  place  in  2022,  after  Member  States 
submitted national inventories with data on their 2020 pollutant emissions. This revealed 
that  much  more  action  is  needed  in  14  Member  States,  in  particular  to  reduce 
ammonia emissions from the agricultural sector7.  

As regards addressing emissions at source, the Commission presented recently a proposal 
for a new, more stringent Euro 7 emission standard for new motor vehicles. Earlier this 
year, it also proposed revising the Industrial Emissions Directive8. The Commission has 
reviewed the national  strategic plans for the new  common  agricultural policy  for 2023-

https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2660 

1 
2   Directive  2004/107/EC  relating  to  arsenic,  cadmium,  mercury,  nickel  and  polycyclic  aromatic 
hydrocarbons in ambient air  - and  - Directive 2008/50/EC on ambient air  quality and cleaner air for 
Europe. 

3  Directive (EU) 2016/2284 on the reduction of national emissions of certain atmospheric pollutants. 
4 

Sulphur  dioxides  (SO2),  nitrogen  oxides  (NOx),  ammonia  (NH3),  non-methane  volatile  organic 
compounds (NMVOC) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). 

5  COM(2022) 542. 
6  WHO (2021) WHO Global Air Quality Guidelines. 
7 

https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/air/reducing-emissions-air-pollutants/emissions-
inventories_en#review-of-national-emission-inventories 

8  COM  (2022)  586  (Euro  7)  and  COM(2022) 156  (revised  Industrial  Emissions  Directive).  These  (as 
other Commission proposals referred to in this report) are subject to discussions between the Council 
and the European Parliament and therefore subject to changes. 

1 

 
 
 
                                                 
2027  and  the  proposed  schemes  which  offer  the  possibility  to  support  investments 
towards ammonia reduction. 

This  third  edition  of  the  Clean  Air  Outlook  assesses  the  prospects  of  achieving  the 
objectives of the NEC Directive for 2030 and beyond, in terms of reducing emissions of 
air pollutants and subsequent impacts on air quality, health, ecosystems and the economy. 
This analysis builds on and complements the work carried out on the impact assessment 
underpinning  the  revision  of  the  Ambient  Air  Quality  Directives9.  It  incorporates  the 
EU’s  climate  targets  under  the  Fit  for  55  initiative,  in  line  with  the  2021  Commission 
proposals  to  move  to  a  55%  reduction  in  greenhouse  gas  (GHG)  emissions  by  203010. 
The Third Clean Air Outlook also sheds light on the implications  of the current energy 
crisis on air quality and air pollution. 

The Third Clean Air Outlook directly contributes to the Zero Pollution Monitoring and 
Outlook report11 by analysing the prospect  of achieving the two clean air related  zero 
pollution action plan12 targets. These are to reduce, by 2030 in the EU, by more than 55% 
the  health  impacts  of  air  pollution  (expressed  as  premature  deaths),  and  by  25%  the 
ecosystems where air pollution threatens biodiversity (compared to 2005 levels). 

Finally,  and  in  preparation  for  the  review  of  the  NEC  Directive  by  202513,  the  Third 
Clean  Air  Outlook  analyses  several  aspects  that  could  be  covered  by  that  review.  In 
particular, it looks at the effect on compliance of integrating a more comprehensive range 
of emissions that are currently not accounted for in the NEC compliance checks but that 
have  a  clear  impact  on  air  quality.  This  includes  condensable  particulate  matter  and 
certain  emission  sources  in  agriculture.  The  report  also  highlights  the  co-benefits  of 
reducing methane emissions, which are both air pollutants and a potent greenhouse gas. 

2.  STATE  OF  AIR  POLLUTANT  EMISSIONS  AND  AIR  QUALITY  AND  PROGRESS  ON 

COMPLIANCE 

2.1.  Current air pollutant emissions and air quality situation 

Over the years, the EU has reduced emissions of the main air pollutants, though at very 
different  paces  depending  on  the  type  of  pollutants.  Emissions  of  ammonia  (NH3),  for 
which 94% of emissions are generated by the agricultural sector, remain worryingly flat 
and have even increased in recent years in some Member States. 

SWD/2022/545 final. 

9 
10  https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/european-green-deal/delivering-european-green-deal_en 
11  COM(2022) 674. 
12  COM (2021) 400 final. 
13  As per the Directive Article 13. 

2 

 
                                                 
Figure 1: Trend in EU-27 emissions, 2000-2020 (% of 2005 levels) 

Source: European Environment Agency 

Despite an overall decrease in air pollution, the levels of health and ecosystem impacts 
from pollution remain problematic. In 2020, most people living in urban areas in the 
EU were exposed to air pollution at levels that damage their health14. The European 
Environment  Agency  (EEA)  estimates 
largest 
environmental health risk in Europe and it is one that disproportionately affects sensitive 
and  vulnerable  social  groups15.  As  such,  addressing  air  pollution  is  also  a  matter  of 
fairness  and  equality.  Approximately  238 000  premature  deaths  are  attributable  to  fine 
particulate matter in the EU, 49 000 to nitrogen dioxide and 24 000 to acute exposure to 
ozone  (these  numbers,  based  on  observed  rather  than  modelled  air  quality  data,  stems 
from an updated methodology developed by the EEA)16. The EEA also estimated that in 
2018, over 65% of the ecosystem area in the EU had levels of pollution that exceeded the 
critical load for eutrophication17. 

that  air  pollution 

the  single 

is 

2.2. 

Progress towards compliance 

After  reviewing  the  2020  emission  inventories  submitted  by  Member  States  in  202218, 
the  Commission  concluded  that  14  Member  States  did  not  comply  with  the  set 
reduction  commitments  for  at  least  one  pollutant.  In  11  of  these  Member  States, 
ammonia is one of the pollutants emitted in excess. Countries must develop national air 
pollution  control  programmes  (NAPCP)  and  update  them  at  least  every  four  years,  as 

14  https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/air-quality-in-europe-2021/air-quality-status-briefing-2021 
15  EEA Report No 22/2018. 
16  EEA  (2022)  Health  impact  of  air  pollution  in  Europe  2022.  This  estimate  is  based  on  air  pollution 
concentration monitoring and only includes premature deaths attributable to air pollution above WHO 
air  quality  guidelines  level,  unlike  other  estimates  in  Section  4  stemming  from  modelling  results  in 
Klimont  et  al.,  “Support  to  the  development  of  the  third  Clean  Air  Outlook”,  IIASA,  2022  [IIASA 
2022],  and  which  reflect  all  impacts  (including  below  WHO guidelines  level),  to  remain  consistent 
with previous Clean Air Outlook analysis. 

17  EEA Report No 9/2020. 
18  Emission inventories are reported with a two-year time lag, hence compliance checks against the 2020-

29 obligations took place for the first time in 2022. 

3 

020406080100120140200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020NH3NMVOCNOxPM10PM2.5SO2CH4 
 
                                                 
they  are  the  key  governance  instrument  to  achieve  the  NEC  Directive’s  reduction 
commitments. All Member States that submitted their first NAPCP by the 2019 reporting 
deadline  must  report  an  updated  plan  in  2023,  presenting  measures  to  reduce  their 
emissions. Member States for which the first NAPCP or latest data indicate that they will 
not  meet  the  set  reduction  commitments  must  also  update  their  emission  reduction 
measures. 

The 2020 emission data submitted by Member States in 2022 also highlight that several 
Member  States  need  to  achieve  a  dramatic  reduction  in  the  emissions  of  several 
pollutants in order to fulfil their more ambitious emission reduction commitments for 
2030 onwards. The EEA analysis19 shows that 7 and 8 Member States need their PM2.5 
and NOx emissions to fall by more than 30% between 2020 and 2030. For NMVOC and 
ammonia  emissions,  10  and  11  Member  States  need  to  reduce  their  emissions  by  over 
10%  by  2030.  Again,  this  means  that  they  must  put  in  place  additional,  more  stringent 
and effective policies and measures. 

As  regards  the  Ambient  Air  Quality  Directives,  as  of  October  2022,  there  were  28 
ongoing  infringement  cases  opened  due  to  exceedances  of  air  quality  standards  in  18 
Member  States.  Proceedings  before  both  the  Court  of  Justice  of  the  EU  and  national 
courts confirm that in many cases, air quality plans were inadequate and/or insufficient 
measures were adopted to reduce air pollution. 

2.3.  Links  between  the  proposal  to  revise  the  Ambient  Air  Quality 
Directives and continued implementation of the NEC Directive 

Following  up  on  the  European  Green  Deal  commitment,  on  26 October  2022  the 
Commission presented a proposal to revise the Ambient Air Quality Directives. The aim 
was  to  progressively achieve full  alignment of  the EU  air quality  standards with WHO 
recommendations,  improve  the  regulatory  framework  and  strengthen  the  provisions  on 
monitoring,  modelling  and  air  quality  plans.  The  revision  builds  on  the  lessons  learnt 
from the 2019 evaluation (‘fitness check’) of the Ambient Air Quality Directives. 

As regards the link to the NEC Directive, the proposal includes monitoring pollutants of 
emerging  concern,  including  ammonia,  at  ‘monitoring  supersites’  in  urban  and  rural 
background locations. Monitoring at urban locations will be complementary to ecosystem 
monitoring of ammonia under the NEC Directive, whereas monitoring at rural locations 
can coincide with the monitoring established as per Article 9 of the NEC Directive. The 
proposal  also  streamlines  and  simplifies  the  monitoring  requirements  for  ozone.  The 
revision aims to increase the effectiveness of air quality plans, including by requiring air 
quality plans to be drawn up before air quality standards enter into force, in cases where 
these  standards  are  exceeded  prior  to  2030,  and  by  mandating  regular  updates  of  air 
quality  plans  if  they  do  not  achieve  compliance.  These  changes  will  foster  forward-
looking  air  quality  planning,  which  can  thus  be  coordinated  more  effectively  with 
national  air pollution  control  programmes (NAPCPs). Reporting  of  ecosystems impacts 
and  of  NAPCPs  under  the  NEC  Directive  can  support  competent  authorities  in 
identifying  the  origin  of  pollution,  which  is  an  important  requirement  for  effective  air 
quality plans. 

19  https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/national-emission-reduction-commitments-directive-2022; 

these  figures  are  based  on  Member  States’  data  and  not  on  the  data  checked  and  reviewed  by  the 
Commission afterwards. 

4 

 
                                                 
Once  implemented,  this  proposal  will  reinforce  the  need  for  Member  States  to  reduce 
further their emissions of air pollutants in order to meet the new and more ambitious air 
quality  standards.  It  will  also  contribute  to  effective  implementation  of  the  NEC 
Directive  obligations.  The  impacts  of  more  ambitious  air  quality  standards  on  air 
pollutant  emissions  and  on  health,  ecosystems  and  their  economic  consequences  have 
been analysed in the impact assessment underpinning the proposal to revise the Ambient 
Air  Quality  Directives.  The  Third  Clean  Air  Outlook  builds  on  this  analysis  and 
complements  it  by  adding  some  more  recent  modelling  and  policy  developments  (see 
Annex) and projecting situations under multiple potential scenarios for the future. 

3. 

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NEC DIRECTIVE  

3.1.  Changes in relevant legislation and policy context  

In July 2021, the Commission adopted the Fit for 55 package of legislative proposals to 
increase  the  EU’s  climate  ambition.  It  increased  the  target  to  reduce  greenhouse  gas 
emissions  to  at  least  55% below 1990 levels  by 2030. This  is  consistent with  the EU’s 
headline  goal  to  become  climate-neutral  by  2050.  The  measures  in  the  Fit  for  55 
proposals  will  bring  co-benefits  for  air  quality  by  reducing  emissions  of  key  air 
pollutants  (PM2.5,  NOx  and  SO2),  compared  to  the  situation  with  previously  agreed 
climate and energy policy (which was the basis of the Second Clean Air Outlook).20  

As  regards  transport,  the  proposal  for  a  Euro  7  emission  standard  tackles  emissions 
from tailpipes as well as from brakes and tyres for new light- and heavy-duty vehicles. 
The  proposed  revised  CO2  standards  for  cars  will  ban  the  sale  of  combustion-engine 
cars  and  vans  as  of  203521.  Other  measures  in  the  transport  sector,  more  linked  to 
behavioural change and action at local level, could not be reflected in the model.   

Finally,  new  proposed  rules  under  the  Industrial  Emissions  Directive  (IED)  will 
strengthen  the  links  with  innovation  and  industrial  transformation,  tighten  the  rules  on 
permit conditions and on setting emission limit values, and enhance enforcement whilst 
increasing  the  level  of  public  information,  participation  and  access  to  justice.  They 
extend the installations covered to extractive industry, battery giga-factories and to large 
cattle farms, as well as to more pigs and poultry farms (representing altogether 13% of 
non-subsistence farms in the EU, which are responsible for 60% of ammonia and 43% of 
methane  emissions  from  EU  livestock).  The  baseline  of  this  Third  Clean  Air  Outlook 
thus includes elements of the IED proposal  concerning the proposed extension to  cover 
more livestock farms22. 

20  Results for the ‘MIX’ scenario in the impact assessment on the 2030 Climate Target Plan (SWD(2020) 
176 final) show that the package would reduce emissions of PM2.5, NOx and SO2 by 4%, 7%, and 17% 
respectively in 2030 as compared to the situation with previously agreed climate and energy policy.  
21  COM/2021/556  final;  Council  and  Parliament  reached  a  provisional  political  agreement  in  October 

2022. 

22  The  sensitivity  analysis  carried  out  for  the  impact  assessment  underpinning  the  revision  of  the 
Ambient  Air  Quality  Directives  has  integrated  further  aspects  of  the  IED  revision  proposal  by 
assuming in 2030 a 20% decrease of PM2.5, SO2 and NOx emissions from industrial installations falling 
into  the  remit  of  the  revised  IED,  compared  to  their  2030  emission  levels  in  the  core  baseline.  The 
results  are  rather  stable  and  lead  to  only  very  small  changes  in  PM2.5  and  NOx  concentration  levels. 
The most positively affected pollutant is by far SO2, with total EU emissions projected to fall by 10% 
in 2030 compared to the baseline, but  this  would not change the already  good projected compliance 
with the NEC Directive reduction commitments for this pollutant. 

5 

 
                                                 
3.2. 

Prospects  for  achieving  the  emission  reduction  commitments  in  the 
NEC Directive for 2030 and beyond 

According to the results of the Third Clean Air Outlook, only five Member States23 are 
on course to achieve in 2030 all their emission reduction commitments, under current 
national measures and EU legislation and provided the above legislative proposals by the 
Commission  are adopted and implemented (this  is  the  ‘baseline’  policy  scenario24).  All 
other Member States need to take additional measures to fulfil their obligations. This is 
particularly  the  case  for  ammonia  emissions,  for  which  20  Member  States  need  to 
increase action to reduce their emissions by 2030. Table 1 shows the Member States 
projected  to  miss  their  emission  reduction  commitments  per  pollutant.  These  forward-
looking modelling results confirm the trend observed in the data analysed by EEA (see 
Section 2.2). 

Looking at the modelling for emission levels in 2025 and at whether Member States are 
on  a  linear  trajectory25  to  reach  their  more  ambitious  reduction  commitments  for  2030, 
only seven Member States26 are projected to be on course to reduce adequately  all five 
pollutants.  Action  must  be  taken  very  quickly  by  the  remaining  Member  States,  in 
particular to reduce ammonia emissions as 19 Member States are not projected to be 
on a linear trajectory in 2025. 

The compliance prospects improve under the scenario that the EU population gradually 
shifts to a flexitarian diet27. This is in particular good for ammonia emissions, with nine 
additional  Member  States  on  course  to  meet  the  reduction  commitments  in  2030 
compared  to  the  baseline,  reaching  16  Member  States  in  compliance28.  Under  the 
scenario with more stringent EU-wide air quality standards for PM2.5 at 10 µg/m3 in 
line with the Commission’s proposal (‘stricter air quality standards’ scenario), a further 
two Member States would meet the commitment to reduce ammonia emissions (reaching 
18 Member States), and it would improve compliance prospects for NMVOC and PM2.5. 
Using  all  available  technical  measures29  would  enable  all  Member  States  to  meet  their 
2030 commitments, except for one for NOx. 

23  EE, EL, IT, FI, SE. 
24   For a description of all scenarios mentioned in this report, see Section 3 of IIASA (2022). All results 

presented here stem from the GAINS model (https://gains.iiasa.ac.at/gains) 

25  According  to  Article 4(2)  of  the  NEC  Directive,  the  indicative  levels  of  the  2025  emissions  are 
determined  by  a  linear  reduction  trajectory  established  between  the  emission  levels  defined  by  the 
emission reduction commitments for 2020 and the emission levels defined by the emission reduction 
commitments for 2030. The assessment is hence made against a maximum allowed emission level that 
is the average of the maximum allowed levels resulting from the 2020-29 and 2030 emission reduction 
commitments. 

26  BE, EL, HR, IT, MT, NL FI. 
27  Based  on  a  scenario  developed  by  JRC  for  implementation  in  the  CAPRI  model,  assuming  the 
adoption of a diet based on total human energy requirements of 2500 kcal/day (after waste) as laid out 
in the ‘EAT-Lancet Commission’ proposal (Willet et al., Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet 
Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems, The Lancet Vol. 393(10170), 2019). The 
transition  to  a  flexitarian  diet  is  implemented  in  the  GAINS  model  as  of  2020  and  increases 
progressively toward full implementation in 2050.  

28  AT,  BG,  HR,  CY,  CZ,  DE,  HU,  IE,  LT,  LU,  RO  remain  projected  to  miss  their  reduction 

commitments. 

29  Maximum technically feasible reduction scenario, referred to as ‘all technical measures’. 

6 

 
 
 
                                                 
Table 1: Member States projected to miss their emission reduction commitments 

Scenario 

Baseline 

Year 

2025 

Baseline 

2030 

NH3 

NMVOC 

NOx 

PM2.5 

SO2 

BG, CZ, DK, DE, EE, IE, 
ES, FR, CY, LV, LT, LU, 
HU, AT, PL, PT, RO, SK, 
SE 

BE, BG, CZ, DK, DE, IE, 
ES, FR, HR, CY, LV, LT, 
LU, HU, NL, AT, PL, PT, 
RO, SK  

LT 

LV, LT 

HU, RO, 
SI 

ES, LT, 
HU, SI  

MT 

DK, ES, 
HU, SI 

Stricter air quality 
standards 

2030 

CZ, DK, DE, IE, CY, LV, 
LT, LU, AT 

All technical 
measures 

2030 

-  

- 

- 

MT 

MT 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

Source: Own compilation based on IIASA (2022) modelling results. 
Note: For 2025, the assessment is carried out against the linear reduction trajectory, as explained in Footnote 25. ‘-’ 
means all Member States are projected to meet the targets. 

3.3. 

Impacts  of  improving  the  range  of  emissions  covered  on  achieving 
the commitments under the NEC Directive  

The  modelling  underpinning  this  edition  of  the  Clean  Air  Outlook  incorporates  new 
features that aim to bring the results closer to real-life conditions30. 

In  particular,  the  modelling  can  now  incorporate  in  a  systematic  manner  condensable 
particulate matter emissions for all key sectors. These are emissions initially in vapour 
form (inside or close to the stack) that transform into particulate matter when discharged 
into ambient air. It is important to include these emissions as they add to the low quality 
of the air we breathe31.  It  was  not  possible  to  do so  in  a systematic manner and  for all 
emitting sectors in the past32, but new findings33 have improved data availability. This is 
particularly  important  for  the  domestic  heating  sector,  where  including  condensable 
particulate matter could change, for some Member States, the extent of action needed to 
reduce real-life emissions. It could therefore also change the split of emissions reductions 
between economic sectors, increasing the relative share of domestic heating in emissions. 

When  comparing  baseline  emissions  with  and  without  systematically  including 
condensable  PM  in  the  model34,  there  are  significant  changes  in  a  few  Member  States 
(notably  Austria  and  Germany).  Comparing 
impacts  at  a  geographically 
disaggregated level reveals that PM2.5 concentrations change only marginally in most of 
Europe.  However,  it  has  a  pronounced  impact  in  some  areas,  including  some  where 

the 

30   For a description of the modelling framework and assessment of all impacts mentioned in this report, 

31 

see IIASA (2022). 
In particular in domestic heating, condensable particulate matter emissions are estimated to represent 
about  the  same  level  as  filterable  emissions,  the  part  most  usually  accounted  for.  See  IIASA  report 
(annex) for details. 

32  Emission  inventories  submitted  by  Member  States  have  not  always  been  fully  comparable  on  this 
matter, due in particular to a lack of scientific consensus on methods to account for condensable PM 
from the heating sector (residential combustion emissions). This topic is subject to discussions under 
the Air Convention (https://emep.int/publ/reports/2020/emep_mscw_technical_report_4_2020.pdf). 
33  Set of consistent emission factors for the heating sector produced in a study for the Nordic Council of 
Ministers  (Simpson  et  al.,  Revising  PM2.5  emissions  from  residential  combustion,  2005-2019; 
Implications for air quality concentrations and trends, Nordic Council of Ministers, 2022). 

34  This has been subject to consultations with Member States. 

7 

 
                                                 
residential heating has a major role (e.g. Finland and Estonia, where concentrations  are 
overall low), and part of central Europe, e.g. Austria and Germany, that traditionally do 
not  include  condensable  PM  in  their  national  data  on  PM2.5  emissions35.  But  these 
changes do not affect any Member State’s prospects of meeting their PM2.5 emission 
reduction commitments. 

Another  improvement  to  the  modelling  of  real-world  emissions  is  to  include  NOX  and 
NMVOC emissions from agriculture. These emissions are currently excluded from the 
compliance checks under the NEC Directive36 due to the lack of sufficiently reliable data 
when  the  commitments  were  set.  More  recent  data  now  allow  this  information  to  be 
incorporated  into  models37.  This  changes  the  projected  compliance  status  in  several 
Member  States.  When  including  NOX  emissions  from  agriculture,  the  prospects  of 
compliance with 2030 reduction commitments under the baseline worsen, from only one 
Member State (MT) off course to meet the commitment to seven (CZ, DK, HU, IE, LT, 
MT, RO). When including  NMVOC emissions from  agriculture,  2030 non-compliance 
prospects under the baseline for 2030 worsen from four Member States (HU, LT, SI, ES) 
to  eight  Member  States  (CZ,  FR,  HU,  IE,  LT,  LU,  SI,  ES).  This  demonstrates  that 
additional  action  is  needed  in  several  Member  States  to  unlock  the  full  potential  of 
mitigation. In the scenario assuming the recently proposed stricter air quality standards, 
the  NEC  Directive  compliance  prospects  are  less  severely  impacted  by  including  these 
agricultural emission sources. 

These results  related to  the better representation  of condensable PM and of agricultural 
emissions could feed into the review of the NEC Directive due by 2025. 

4.  PROSPECTS FOR ATTAINING ZERO POLLUTION OBJECTIVES RELATED TO AIR 

4.1.  The EU’s 2030 clean air targets in the zero pollution action plan 

The zero pollution action plan includes two EU-level targets for 2030 related to clean air:  

1)  reduce by more than 55% the health impacts (expressed as premature deaths) of 

air pollution compared to 2005 figures;  

2)  reduce by 25% the EU ecosystem area where air pollution threatens biodiversity, 

expressed as ecosystem areas above ‘critical loads’ of nitrogen deposition 
(compared to 2005 figures).  

Under  the  baseline  scenario,  the  EU  would  broadly  meet  the  zero  pollution  target  to 
reduce the health impacts, with an estimated 66% reduction in the number of premature 
deaths between 2005 and 2030. However, it would meet the ecosystems target only in 
204038,  and  achieve  only  a  20%  reduction  in  areas  at  risk  between  2005  and  2030. 

35 

IIASA  (2022)  include  difference  maps  comparing  PM2.5  concentrations  in  2015  estimated  in  the 
GAINS model in the standard setup and using the new consistent set of emission factors from Simpson 
et  al.  (2022).  These  show  that  there  are  also  areas  where  modelled  concentrations  decrease  slightly 
when using the consistent set of emission factors. 

36  Article 4(3)(d) of the NEC Directive. 
37  The  assumptions  for  including  NOx  and  NMVOC  emissions  from  agricultural  into  GAINS  were 

discussed during the consultation with Member States.  

38  When  analysing  the  effect  of  moving  towards  a  flexitarian  diet  in  the  EU  (leading  to  reductions  in 

ammonia emissions), the target would be reached by 2035. 

8 

 
                                                 
Meeting the new air quality standards would enable the EU to achieve this target in 2030 
and would deliver both health and biodiversity benefits. 

4.1.1.  Health-related target and overall health impacts across scenarios 

Background concentration of air pollutants and population exposure 

In the baseline scenario, pollutant concentrations already fall over time and, by 2030, no 
areas  in  the  EU  are  projected  to  exceed  20  µg/m3  for  PM2.5.  However,  large  areas  are 
projected to have pollution concentration levels above the currently recommended WHO 
air quality guideline of 5 µg/m3 in 2030 and even in 2050. 

Translating  background  concentration  levels  into  impacts  on  the  health  of  the  EU 
population  shows  that  the  number  of  people  benefiting  from  clean  air  is  set  to  rise 
considerably (Figure 2)39. While this would be a significant improvement, further policy 
commitment is needed to limit  the negative health impacts from exposure above the 
2021 WHO guidelines also for the (roughly) remaining half of the EU population. 

With  an  EU-wide  shift  to  a  flexitarian  diet,  some  benefits  are  expected  in  terms  of 
reduced PM2.5 exposure due to the reduction in emissions of ammonia, which contributes 
to  the  formation  of  secondary  PM.  Compared  to  the  baseline,  the  number  of  people 
projected  to  benefit  from  clean  air  in  line  with  WHO  guidelines  would  increase  by 
around 5-7 million in 2030 and by about 10 million in 2050. 

The  results  vary  for  individual  countries,  though  all  are  projected  to  see  a  steady 
improvement  both  in  background  concentrations  and  related  population  exposure  (as 
further discussed in IIASA, 2022). 

39   These results are largely consistent with the AAQD impact assessment. 

9 

 
                                                 
Figure 2: EU-27 population exposed to different concentrations of PM2.5 

Source: IIASA (2022) 
Note: OPT10 indicates the ‘stricter air quality standards’ scenario (as in the Commission proposal for the 
revision of the Ambient Air Quality Directives), MTFR is the ‘all technical  measures’ scenario, ZPAP is 
the  scenario  that  optimises  for  the  achievement  of  the  ecosystem-related  zero  pollution  target,  FlexDiet 
indicates the flexitarian diet scenario. 

Currently,  just  over  50%  of  the  EU  population  live  in  areas  with  NO2  pollution  levels 
below the WHO guidelines of 10 µg/m3. By 2030, this is projected to exceed 75% in all 
scenarios,  reaching  just  over  80%  if  all  technical  measures  are  implemented.  By  2050, 
under  all  scenarios,  over  95%  of  the  EU  population  is  projected  to  live  in  areas  where 
pollution remains below the recommended NO2 WHO level. 

Premature deaths and achieving the zero pollution target 

Premature  deaths40  due  to  PM2.5  exposure  are  projected  to  fall  by  about  60-75%, 
compared to 2005 figures, across all scenarios (including the baseline) in 2030 and 2050. 
Premature deaths will fall faster if stricter air quality standards are met and all technical 
measures taken41. Provided all policies included in the baseline have the intended results, 
the EU is  set to achieve the zero  pollution health target  by  a  comfortable margin  in 
2030.  The  scenario  under  which  the  EU  population  would  shift  to  a  flexitarian  diet 
would lead to a further estimated reduction of 2 000 premature deaths per year in 2030. 

40  The health impacts of air pollution extend beyond mortality and include morbidity. The impacts have 
been  analysed  and  are  monetised  in  order  to  assess  the  economic  impacts  as  well  as  the  benefits  of 
lower air pollution (see Section 4.2). 

41  This  result  holds  independent  of  the  assumptions  about  population  development  (whether  static,  as 

reported here, or dynamic) and health impacts assumptions used. 

10 

 
 
                                                 
Figure  3: Cases  of  premature  deaths  attributable  to  the  exposure  to  total  PM2.5 
concentrations in the EU27, in thousand cases per year   

Source: IIASA (2022)  
Note: The marked 55% refers to the Zero Pollution target. 

In absolute numbers42, while this projection shows that significant improvements should 
be  achieved  over  the  baseline  scenario,  it  still  means  an  estimated  200 000  premature 
deaths due to PM2.5 exposure in 2030. More stringent air quality standards would reduce 
this  to  177 000  in  2030,  with  further  reductions  obtained  by  taking  all  technical 
measures43. 

In addition to these, exposure to NO2 is projected to cause some 60 000 premature deaths 
in the baseline in 2030, with little variation across scenarios, though this would be halved 
by 2050. Exposure to ground-level ozone is projected to cause around 50 000 premature 
deaths in the baseline in 2030. 

4.1.2.  Ecosystem-related target and overall ecosystem impacts 

Air  pollution  affects  ecosystem  health  through  acidification,  eutrophication  and  ozone 
impacts.  Modelling  results44  show  a  significant  improvement  over  time  as  regards 
acidification: under the baseline scenario, by 2030, less than 3% of the ecosystem area in 
the EU would suffer from acid deposition exceeding critical loads, compared to 15% in 
2005. This demonstrates the benefits of the significant decrease in SO2 emissions that has 
already  been  achieved  over  the  past  decades.  These  benefits  would  be  even  greater  if 
stricter  air  quality  standards  are  set,  all  technical  measures  are  taken,  or  the  EU 
population shifts to a flexitarian diet. 

42  Using the same methodological approach as in the Second Clean Air Outlook, which was the basis for 

setting the zero pollution targets. 

43  These numbers differ from the numbers presented in the impact assessment underpinning the revision 

of the Ambient Air Quality Directives (see Annex 1). 

44  Based  on  a  2022  Critical  Load  database  (Coordination  Centre  for  Effects  of  the  Working  Group  on 
Effects  under  the  UNECE  Air  Convention)  and  the  most  recent  source  receptor  coefficients 
implemented in the GAINS model (see IIASA, 2022). 

11 

 
 
                                                 
However, when looking at the eutrophication impacts of air pollution45, the situation is 
less positive. This is linked to the current projection that the EU will not achieve the zero 
pollution ecosystem target under baseline policies only. In this scenario, 68% of the EU 
ecosystem  area  would  still  suffer  from  eutrophication  in  2030  (compared  to  86%  in 
2005).  Under  the  same  baseline  conditions,  protected  areas  would  continue  to  be 
highly affected in 2030, with 59% of Natura 2000 areas suffering from eutrophication. If 
stricter air quality standards are set or all technical measures are taken, the share of the 
EU  ecosystem  suffering  from  eutrophication  would  fall  to  61%  and  56%  respectively, 
and to 51% and 46% in Natura 2000 areas by 2030. 

Figure 4: Ecosystem area in the EU-27 where the critical loads for eutrophication are 
exceeded 

Source: IIASA (2022) 
Note: The marked 25% indicates the zero pollution target. 

To address this eutrophication challenge, achieve the ecosystem zero pollution target and 
the NEC ammonia emission reduction commitments, and to help implement the Nature 
Restoration Law, Member States will need to put in place additional measures to limit 
ammonia emissions from the agricultural sector, as ammonia is the air pollutant with the 
greatest  impact  on ecosystems. The optimal set of measures  to  reach the  zero pollution 
target relates to more efficient management and application of manure from cattle, pigs 
and poultry and of mineral fertilisers to reduce ammonia emissions. 

These well-established measures (reflected in the NEC Directive either as compulsory or 
voluntary measures)46 would also significantly increase the prospects of  fulfilling the 
NEC Directive ammonia emission reduction commitments, with fewer Member States 
projected to miss the reduction commitments in 2030 (from 20 to 7). Member States are 
therefore strongly encouraged to step up implementation of these measures by: 
–  adopting national legislation to make certain agricultural practices binding; 
–  promoting  these  practices  through  communication  and  awareness-raising  campaigns, 

including through farm advice under the new common agricultural policy. 

45  Assessed as area of ecosystems where nitrogen deposition exceeds the critical loads. 
46  Annex III, part 2. 

12 

 
 
                                                 
Member  States  should  also  consider  taking  other  measures  to  improve  nutrient 
management and avoid nutrient losses leading to air, water and soil pollution, taking an 
integrated approach to nitrogen, notably from agriculture. This is in line with the Farm to 
Fork Strategy, the Nitrates Directive and the forthcoming integrated nutrient management 
action plan. 

4.2.  Economic impacts 

The  economic  impacts  of  air  pollution  are  numerous.  The  vast  majority  of  impacts  are 
not  reflected  in  market  prices,  in  particular  the  direct  health  effects47  of  pollution  but 
damage  to  ecosystems  (including  agricultural  areas  and  forests)  and  materials  from  air 
pollution also generates costs. There are also indirect impacts of air pollution, including 
some macroeconomic consequences reflected in market prices. The costs of air pollution 
abatement  measures  should  therefore  be  weighed  against  the  benefits  these  measures 
bring to society, by attributing a monetary value to these benefits48. 

Under  the  baseline  scenario,  the  health  damages  caused  by  air  pollution  levels  above 
WHO guidelines49 are estimated to range from EUR 114 to 384 billion per year in 2030. 
They  are  estimated  to  fall  to  between  EUR 44  to  169  billion  by  205050,  as  population 
exposure to air pollution decreases. Under the scenarios with stricter air quality standards 
or  all  technical  measures  taken,  health  damages  are  projected  to  fall  by  at  least  30% 
compared  to  the  baseline,  both  for  the  2030  and  2050  timeframes.  Combining  all 
available technical measures with the change in diet would reduce the health damages to 
the lowest value.  

The economic cost of ecosystem damages due to air pollution51 ranges from EUR 3.6 to 
10.8 billion in 2030. This is projected to fall only marginally to EUR 3.1 to 9.2 billion by 
2050, reflecting the only modest reduction in Natura 2000 areas subject to eutrophication 
under the baseline. However, the situation would improve significantly if more ambitious 
clean air policies are pursued. The cost of damages to crops and to forests are estimated 
at  EUR 8.9  and  8.7  billion  in  2030  respectively  under  the  baseline,  only  marginally 
decreasing  under  more  ambitious  clean  air  scenarios.  Indeed,  these  ecosystems  are 
mostly affected by ozone, which is only indirectly reduced in the scenarios envisaged.  

The  economic  cost  of  damages  to  materials  due  to  air  pollution  is  estimated  to  reach 
EUR 676 and 444 million in 2030 and 2050, respectively, under the baseline scenario. 

Compared to  current  policies, the different  scenarios are projected to  generate  different 
levels  of  non-market  benefits  and  different  levels  of  additional  costs  for  the  pollution 
abatement measures needed. Choosing the more ambitious clean air scenarios (setting 
stricter air quality standards, taking all technical measures or implementing the optimal 

47  Mortality damages account for between 70% and 91% of aggregate value of health damages, the rest is 
due to morbidity impacts. The range reflects whether mortality is valued using the value of a life year 
or the value of statistical life. 

48  For a description of the methodology underpinning the results in this section, see IIASA (2022). 
49  Below the guideline levels, a larger share of pollution is due to natural sources. 
50  The ranges reflect whether mortality is valued using the value of a life year or the value of statistical 

life; values are expressed per year, in 2015 prices. 

51  Those impacts are estimated through the loss of ecosystem services only in Natura 2000 areas due to 

eutrophication. They therefore underestimate total loss in ecosystem services. 

13 

 
                                                 
measures to reach the zero pollution targets) always brings net direct benefits (benefits 
minus costs) compared to the baseline scenario52. 

Air  pollution  control  measures  and  their  positive  effects  on  air  quality  also  have  wider 
macroeconomic effects53 reflected in the market. Pollution abatement measures generate 
both a cost for some sectors and a business opportunity for others, while air quality has 
impacts on both labour and crop productivity and therefore on the economy as a whole. 
Based  on  recent  assumptions  on  labour  productivity  effects54,  all  improved  clean  air 
scenarios  increase  EU  GDP  in  2030  by  0.26  to  0.28%  compared  to  the  baseline 
scenario,  showing  the  overriding  positive  economic  effects  of  pollution  abatement 
measures.  

The sectoral distribution of effects shows that, in 2030, only the agricultural sector would 
have low-level negative impacts when all technical measures are taken (about 2% worse 
than  under  the  baseline  scenario,  and  especially  in  the  livestock  sector).  Under  the 
scenario  with  stricter  air  quality  standards,  the  net  effect  on  all  sectors  (including 
agriculture) is positive. 

Figure 5: Macroeconomic market effects of clean air policy scenarios, in % change in 
EU GDP compared to the baseline scenario 

Source: IIASA (2022) based on JRC modelling, based on OECD 2019 assumptions on labour productivity. 

52  The existence of net benefits from abatement measures is robust across sensitivity cases (metrics for 

mortality valuation, air pollution exposure levels, etc.). 

53   These  effects  have  been  computed  by  the  European  Commission  Joint  Research  Centre  using  the 
GEM-E3  model  (https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/gem-e3_en).  For  more  details,  see  Section 
4.4.5 of IIASA (2022). 

54  Dechezleprêtre,  A.,  Rivers,  N.,  &  Stadler,  B.  The  economic  cost  of  air  pollution:  Evidence  from 

Europe. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 2019. 

14 

 
 
 
                                                 
5.  THE  CLEAN  AIR  IMPACTS  OF  THE  RECENT  GEOPOLITICAL  EVENTS  AND  THE 

ENERGY CRISIS 

Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine led to a massive 
disruption on the European energy system, calling for immediate collective action. The 
Commission  presented  on  18 May  2022  its  REPowerEU  Plan55  to  end  the  EU’s 
dependency on gas, oil and coal imports from Russia, building on the Fit for 55 proposals 
and in line with the climate neutrality objective of the European Green Deal. This plan 
tabled  additional  measures  combining  smart  investments  and  reforms  to  rapidly  save 
energy  for  households,  businesses  and  industry,  and  to  accelerate  the  clean  energy 
transition  including  by  proposing  higher  targets  for  renewable  energy  and  energy 
efficiency for 203056.  

As part of the Third Clean Air Outlook, the Commission has tested projections on the EU 
energy mix incorporating, on top of the measures included in the baseline scenario, the 
potential consequences of phasing out fossil fuels from Russia and the main REPowerEU 
measures announced at the time57, to assess their impact on air pollution.  

Later this year, the Commission also tabled emergency measures to further reduce energy 
consumption in the short term58 and boost the necessary rapid development of renewable 
energy59.  The  above  mentioned  projections  do  not  factor  in  those  latest  measures  and 
potential  rapid  changes  that  could  be  triggered,  in  particular  behavioural  changes  and 
acceleration of the deployment of renewable energy. 

On the basis of these projections, of relevance for air quality are a projected reduction in 
overall  EU  energy  use,  a  strong  reduction  in  the  use  of  natural  gas,  compensated  by  a 
massive increase in renewables and hydrogen. Compared to the baseline scenario, overall 
solid biomass consumption in this scenario is currently projected to stay fairly stable in 
2030,  with  an  over  40%  decline  in  2050.  Boosting  energy  efficiency  and  spurring 
investment  in  non-combustible  renewable  energy  sources  would  yield  clean  air  co-
benefits. 

However, the current energy crisis is also expected to lead to prolonging some existing 
coal  capacities,  depending  on  the  Member  States’  specific  situation  and  their  current 
energy mix, as well as the speed of the deployment  of alternative energy sources. This 
temporary potential rebound in the use of coal has the opposite effect on clean air. Due to 
these projected changes in the EU’s energy mix, and in the absence of further EU policy 
action  to  achieve  clean  air,  the  projections  indicate  that  air  quality  would  worsen  for 
about  2%  of  the  EU  population  in  2030  compared  to  the  baseline  scenario,  and  then 
improve slightly in terms of the share of the EU population benefiting from clean air by 
2050,  due  to  the  accelerated  rollout  of  clean  energy  production  and  lower  use  of  solid 
biomass,  oil  and  gas.  All  in  all,  compared  to  the  baseline  scenario,  this  alternative 
scenario is  estimated to result in a slightly  higher number of premature deaths in 2030, 
but then in a greater reduction by 2050, in line with the trends observed for the projected 
pollution concentration levels. 

55  COM(2022) 230 
56   The  Commission  proposed  to  increase  the  2030  target  for  renewable  energy  to  45%  and  the  energy 

efficiency target to 13%. 

57   In COM (2022) 230 and SWD (2022) 230.  
58   COM (2022) 360 and Council Regulation (EU) 2022/1369. 
59   COM (2022) 591. 

15 

 
                                                 
There  are  geographical  differences  in  these  impacts  across  the  EU60.  This  medium-
term negative impact would require the EU to take appropriate abatement measures to 
avoid undermining the achievement of clean air objectives and legal obligations. The cost 
of related health  and material  damages is  slightly  higher (3-4%  for health and 14% for 
material) in 2030 under this case than in the baseline, but slightly lower by 2050. 

As  regards  NEC  Directive  compliance  prospects,  the  main  pollutant  to  consider  for 
61. Compared to compliance prospects  under current 
changes in the energy mix is PM2.5
policies  (Section  3.2),  one  additional  Member  State  would  be  off  the  linear  reduction 
trajectory in 2025 (DK), whereas the same four Member States as in the baseline scenario 
are projected to fall short of their reduction commitment for 2030 (DK, HU, SI, ES). 

Overall,  the  REPowerEU  plan  was  adopted  in  response  to  the  need  to  drastically 
accelerate  the  clean  energy  transition  and  increase  Europe’s  energy  independence  from 
unreliable  suppliers  and  volatile  fossil  fuels,  and  this  yields  longer-term  clean  air 
benefits.  However,  in  the  short  term,  the  projected  increase  in  coal  use  to  offset  the 
phasing out of Russian gas, especially in some EU regions, would lead to increased air 
pollution  and  hence  higher  health  damages  than  in  the  baseline  scenario,  leading  to 
fewer clean air benefits too. However, the negative clean air impacts in the short term are 
not  expected  to  have  a  negative  effect  on  the  prospects  of  meeting  the  2030  zero 
pollution  health  target  at  EU  level.  The  modelling  shows  that  the  EU  will  miss  the 
ecosystem target, as under the baseline scenario, unless further measures are taken. 

Given the current dynamics on energy markets as well as the associated  changes to the 
regulatory  framework,  all  these  results  should  be  considered  indicative.  Apart  from 
potential future measures at EU level, there is considerable uncertainty as to how energy 
users across the Member States will react to changing energy prices. A surge in the use of 
cheaply available sources of energy (such as own collected wood of lower fuel quality) 
would  lead  to  increased  emissions  of  air  pollutants.  The  need  to  switch  to  other  more 
polluting  sources  of  energy  has  already  led  to  temporary  derogations  from  emission 
standards,  representing  a  risk  of  worsening  air  quality  that  needs  to  be  assessed  at 
national level in order to avoid jeopardising compliance with EU clean air legislation and 
prevent negative impacts on health and ecosystems. Rapid implementation of structural 
measures and unpredictable evolution of energy markets would instead further accelerate 
the clean energy transition and lead to an improvement of air quality. 

6. 

INTERACTIONS WITH CLIMATE POLICY – FOCUS ON METHANE AND BLACK CARBON 

To  complement  the  assessment  of  air  quality  impacts  of  the  measures  to  scale  up  the 
EU’s  climate  ambition  included  in  the  baseline  scenario  (Fit  for  55  package),  in  this 
Third Clean Air Outlook, the Commission analyses synergies between climate and clean 
air policies related to developments in short-lived climate forcers. 

The  NEC  Directive  recognises  the  link  between  air  pollution  on  the  one  hand  and 
methane  and  black  carbon,  two  key  short-lived  climate  forcers,  on  the  other.  Member 
States  must  report  national  emissions  of  black  carbon  when  the  data  are  available,  and 

60  With  Austria,  Bulgaria,  Poland  and  Romania  most  affected  by  higher  pollutant  concentrations. 
However, the estimated changes do not exceed an increase of 1.5 µg/m3 of PM2.5 concentration levels. 
61  SO2 is also relevant but the compliance prospects are unchanged, given the large margins by which all 

Member States are projected to comply with their SO2 reduction commitments. 

16 

 
                                                 
currently all but two Member States do so. Building on the Commission Declaration on 
methane featuring at the end of the NEC Directive, the ‘EU strategy to reduce methane 
emissions’62  announced  that  the  Commission  will,  as  part  of  the  NEC  review  due  by 
2025, explore the possible inclusion of methane among the regulated pollutants. 

Indeed,  methane  is  both  a  potent  climate  forcer  and  a  precursor  to  ground-level  ozone 
pollution, which was estimated to be responsible for 24 000 premature deaths in the EU 
in  202063.  Anthropogenic  emissions  of  methane  in  the  EU  come  principally  from 
agriculture (54%), waste (27%) and energy (17%)64. 

Black  carbon65,  or  soot,  forms  part  of  fine  particulate  matter  and  contributes  to  the 
negative  impacts  on  health  and  on  the  environment.  It  is  formed  from  the  incomplete 
combustion of fossil fuels and wood. By absorbing light and heat in the air, black carbon 
contributes  to  climate  change.  When  deposited  on  ice  and  snow,  black  carbon  reduces 
surface albedo66, contributing to heating, particularly in Arctic regions of the EU. 

Reducing emissions of methane and black carbon can therefore produce benefits both in 
terms  of  clean  air  and  in  terms  of  climate  change  mitigation,  increasing  the  benefit-to-
cost ratio of their abatement measure.    

For these reasons, the modelling carried out for this report has analysed the evolution of 
black carbon and methane emissions under various scenarios. It shows that baseline EU 
black carbon emissions would drop significantly (by 53%) between 2020 and 2030, 
mostly  due  to  the  gradual  roll-out  of  the  eco-design  requirements  for  domestic  heating 
appliances,  the  drop  in  biomass  and  the  strong  reduction  of  coal  use  in  this  sector.  A 
quarter of the achieved reduction comes from the transport sector, primarily as a result of 
advanced Euro standards including installation of efficient particulate filters.  

Even  greater  reductions  could  be  achieved  (72%  below  the  2020  baseline  level)  if  all 
technical measures were taken. Under the alternative energy scenario assessed in Section 
5, emissions of black carbon are projected to increase slightly in 2030 (compared to the 
baseline scenario), due to the increased use of solid fuel (coal, biomass) in certain regions 
and Member States. 

Likewise, under this report’s baseline scenario, EU methane emissions are projected to 
fall  by  19%  between  2020  and  203067.  In  2050,  the  flexitarian  scenario  mentioned 
above  would  lead  to  a  11%  reduction  in  the  EU  methane  emissions  compared  to  the 
baseline scenario. 

However,  as  methane  is  transported  on  a  hemispheric  scale,  it  is  vital  to  complement 
action at EU level with global action. In November 2021, the EU co-convened, together 
with the United States, the Global Methane Pledge68, which has provided momentum to 

62  COM(2020) 663 final. 
63  EEA (2022) 
64   Data from the EU inventory submission to the UNFCCC 27 May 2022 (including the land use sector). 
65   Elements  from 
the  Climate  and  Clean  Air  Coalition 

this  description  are  sourced  from 

(https://www.ccacoalition.org). 

66  The ability to reflect sunlight. 
67   The  EU  Methane  Action  Plan  (2022),  under  the  Global  Methane  Pledge,  estimates  a  reduction  of 
scenario 

methane  emissions  of  about  23%  between  2020  and  2030 
(https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/resources/national-methane-action-plans). 

its  policy 

in 

68  https://www.globalmethanepledge.org/ 

17 

 
                                                 
accelerate  action.  It  puts  forward  a  voluntary  commitment  to  reduce  global  methane 
emissions  by  at  least  30%  from  2020  levels  by  2030.  In  parallel,  the  UNECE  Air 
Convention  provides  opportunities  to  explore  synergies  between  the  international  clean 
air and climate frameworks. In particular, the review of its Gothenburg Protocol (see next 
section)  has  opened  discussions  on  the  role  of  methane  as  an  ozone  precursor  and 
therefore a pollutant of relevance to clean air policies. 

The  stricter  ozone  concentration  standards  presented  in  the  Commission  proposal  to 
revise  the  Ambient  Air  Quality  Directives  also  emphasise  the  need  to  further  reduce 
emissions of all ozone precursors, including methane, inside and outside of the EU. 

7.  TRANSBOUNDARY AND INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION 

Air  pollution  in  a  given  country  comes  from  multiple  sources,  notably  domestic 
emissions,  emissions  generated  in  neighbouring  countries  and  natural  sources.  In  most 
Member  States,  domestic  sources  are  the  main  sources  of  pollution,  and  hence  cutting 
domestic emissions is the priority to reduce air pollutant background concentration. The 
share  of  pollution  from  domestic  sources  is  often  higher  in  the  largest  Member  States, 
where at least half of the action needed must be to reduce these sources.  

in 

At  the  same  time,  the  analysis  confirms  that  in  most  Member  States,  a  significant 
contribution  to  PM2.5  background  concentration  is  generated  in  other  Member  States. 
This  reflects  the  transboundary  nature  of  air  pollution,  which  justifies  action  at  EU 
level, as air pollution of domestic origin has negative impacts beyond a Member State’s 
borders69.  Likewise,  reducing  air  pollution 
the  NEC  Directive’s 
commitments  would  benefit  other  countries.  In  addition,  the  analysis  shows  that 
contributions  to  air  pollutant  background  concentration  also  come  from  non-EU 
countries,  at  varying  levels  depending  on  the  geographical  situation  of  the  Member 
States70.  Over  time  and  with  increasing  stringency  of  EU  air  pollution  abatement 
scenarios, the share of pollution from within the EU is projected to fall (due to additional 
action  within  the  EU),  increasing  the  relative  importance  of  non-EU  sources.  This 
underlines  the  need  for  the  EU  to  take  stronger  action  bilaterally  (notably  in  the 
context  of  accession  and  neighbourhood  policies,  but  also  by  building  stronger 
international  partnerships)  as  well  as  in  multilateral  fora  such  as  the  UNECE  Air 
Convention. 

line  with 

The  NEC  Directive  obligations  are,  at  least  to  some  degree,  reflected  at  international 
level via the UNECE Air Convention and its amended Gothenburg Protocol. The number 
of countries having ratified this Protocol has increased over the last years, but still very 
few  ratifications  are  by  non-EU  Parties.  Among  the  EU  Member  States,  seven71  are 
still  not  yet  Party  to  the  amended  Protocol  but  most  are  advancing  in  the  ratification 
process. 

69   Efficiency of transboundary pollutants monitoring can be considerably improved by means of the EU 

space data and services. 

70  Smaller  and  more  isolated  Member  States  would  benefit  most  from  reductions  in  non-EU 
neighbouring  countries,  as  well  as  from  lower  emissions  from  international  shipping  (the  latter 
especially in the case of islands). 

71   Austria, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Hungary and Poland. 

18 

 
                                                 
The  ongoing  review  of  the  amended  Gothenburg  Protocol  is  of  particular  interest 
under  the  Air  Convention  work.  The  review  is  in  its  final  stages  and  the  Parties  will 
decide how to take its conclusions forward. 

8.  CONCLUSION 

The analysis conducted for the Third Clean Air Outlook has shown that emissions of air 
pollutants are projected to continue falling. This is good news for EU citizens and the EU 
economy and society. Over the past 20 years, the EU has achieved substantial reductions 
in the emissions of most of the five main pollutants regulated under the NEC Directive. 
Emissions of ammonia,  however, are a worrying exception. Emissions have fallen only 
marginally,  and  11  Member  States  did  not  achieve  their  ammonia  emission  reduction 
commitments in 2020.  

For  emissions  of  ammonia,  the  prospects  of  meeting  the  NEC  Directive’s  emission 
reduction  commitments  remain  bleak.  These  Member  States  must  take  significant 
additional  action  to  reduce  ammonia  emissions  at  source  by  promoting  good 
agricultural practices. As the analysis has also shown, a gradual shift to a flexitarian diet 
in the EU would improve the compliance prospects, as would a stronger push at Member 
State level to take related agricultural measures under the common agricultural policy72. 
Additional  action  is  also  needed  to  limit  emissions  of  PM2.5  and  NMVOC,  though  for 
these two pollutants only four Member States are currently projected to miss their 2030 
reduction commitments. 

The  Commission  underscores  that  it  is  essential  to  meet  the  NEC  Directive’s 
commitments  in  full  to  reduce  the  negative  health  and  environmental  impacts  of  air 
pollution,  in  line  with  the  EU’s  zero  pollution  ambition.  With  current  and  proposed 
policies, the EU is projected to meet the health-related zero pollution target, but it is not 
on track to meet the ecosystem-related target in 2030. This emphasises the need to take 
further measures to reduce ammonia emissions. 

To ensure that the expected projections materialise, it is important to implement existing 
legislation  in  full73.  Equally,  it  is  important  that  Parliament  and  Council  swiftly 
adopt  the  more  recent  policy  proposals  made  by  the  Commission  (and  that  formed 
part  of  the  underlying  assumptions  for  the  Clean  Air  Outlook)  while  maintaining  the 
proposed  ambition  level.  This  includes  the  proposals  on  vehicle  emission  standards, 
industrial emissions (including extending the scope of the Industrial Emissions Directive 
to  cover large  farms, projected to  have a significant  impact  towards reducing  ammonia 
emissions) and initiatives under the Fit for 55 and REPowerEU initiatives.  

As  regards  the  REPowerEU  Plan,  the  analysis  presented  here  shows  that,  while  the 
accelerated  roll-out  of  renewable  energy  (notably  wind  and  solar)  will  bring  long-term 
benefits,  the  rebound  of  coal  use  due  to  phasing  out  Russian  gas  is  set  to  worsen  air 
quality  in  the  short  term  and  requires  some  abatement  measures  (the  same  holds  for 

72   Many  Member  States  decided  to  address  ammonia  emissions  in  their  CAP  Strategic  Plans  and/or 

through national legislation. 
EU 

through 

73   Including 

support, 

such 

as 

the 

Technical 

Support 

Instrument 

(https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/find-funding/eu-funding-programmes/technical-support-
instrument/technical-support-instrument-tsi_en)  and  EU  funded  Research  and  Innovation  initiatives 
related 
(https://research-and-
innovation.ec.europa.eu/document/c9d4c0b5-f85e-4599-986d-e6b2438229fc_en) 

remediation 

prevention 

pollution 

and 

the 

air 

of 

to 

19 

 
                                                 
biomass). In this context, it will be very important to propose more stringent eco-design 
standards for solid fuel boilers and stoves during the ongoing revision. The development 
of  energy  markets  also  merits  close  observation  from  a  clean  air  perspective,  as 
increasing prices can lead consumers to switch to cheaper but more polluting fuels. The 
current situation has already led to  temporary derogations  from  emission standards,  the 
implications of which for air quality need to be assessed and monitored closely, including 
at national level. 

Most  importantly,  more  ambitious  air  quality  standards  as  recently  put  forward  by  the 
Commission  in  its  proposal  to  revise  the  Ambient  Air  Quality  Directives  would  ease 
implementation of the NEC Directive. This would greatly improve the 2030 compliance 
prospects  (though  still  too  many  Member  States  would  be  projected  to  miss  their 
ammonia  reduction  commitments).  It  would  also  bring  further  reductions  to  the  health 
and ecosystem impacts of air pollution and generate macroeconomic gains, in line with 
the analysis underpinning the proposed revision of the Ambient Air Quality standards. 

20 

 
 
 
 
 
ANNEX:  MAIN  METHODOLOGICAL  DIFFERENCES  WITH  THE  SECOND  CLEAN  AIR 
OUTLOOK  AND  WITH  THE  ANALYTICAL  WORK  UNDERPINNING  THE  REVISION  OF  THE 
AIR QUALITY DIRECTIVES 

Updates since the Second Clean Air Outlook 

–  The baseline scenario reflects more recent adopted and proposed EU policies. 

–  Updated  methodology  for  assessing  health  impacts.  Based  on  more  recent  scientific 
evidence,  it  now  includes  some  new  morbidity  impacts.  A  sensitivity  analysis  is 
carried  out  to  reflect  different  slopes  of  the  concentration  response  functions  at  low 
concentration levels. 

–  Updated  methodology  for  valuing  health  impacts.  The  same  monetised  values  are 
applied as in  the Second Clean Air Outlook  but only impacts  above the  WHO 2021 
guidelines levels are taken into account in the monetisation part (the Second Clean Air 
Outlook  monetised  impacts  at  all  levels).  This  enables  the  analysis  to  focus  on  the 
monetised estimation of the damages that are mostly due to the anthropogenic part of 
pollution. It also includes a few additional morbidity impacts. 

Additional  updates  since  the  analytical  work  underpinning  the  revision  of  the  Ambient 
Air Quality Directives 

There are methodological differences due to the different timing of the modelling work 
for the two initiatives and different purposes. For the work underpinning the revision of 
the  Directives,  the  focus  was  on  relative  changes  between  scenarios  in  the  target  years 
2030 and 2050 with a focus also on local impacts, whereas the Clean Air Outlook also 
analyses changes over time and with a coarser geographical approach. 

–  Use of different models and of different population projections for some parts of the 
analysis.  The  Clean  Air  Outlook  analysis  relies  primarily  on  the  GAINS  model, 
assuming  a  constant  population  to  estimate  health  impacts,  to  apply  the  same 
methodological choices to assess the achievement of the zero pollution target as were 
used  in  the  target  setting.  The  work  underpinning  the  revision  of  the  Ambient  Air 
Quality  Directives  uses,  for  pollutant  concentration  and  related  impacts,  the  uEMEP 
model with a higher geographical resolution. 

–  For  the  same  reason,  to  assess  the  zero  pollution  target,  it  looks  at  the  full  health 
impacts  from  anthropogenic  PM2.5  emissions  (whereas  the  impact  assessment  of  the 
Ambient  Air  Quality  Directives  revision  looks  at  the  cases  attributable  to  exposure 
above the WHO guideline level of 5 µg/m3 but including natural sources). 

–  The  baseline  scenario  includes  the  agricultural  elements  of  the  proposed  revised 

Industrial Emission Directive. 

–  The  baseline  scenario  has  been  adjusted  following  consultation  with  the  Member 

States to better reflect national policies, measures and emission inventories. 

–  Use of updated atmospheric transfer coefficients, which may result in different spatial 

distribution patterns. 

–  Use  of  the  2021  updated  database  on  critical  loads  for  ecosystems  provided  by  the 

Coordination Centre for Effects of the UNECE Air Convention. 

21 

 
 
 
 
–  In  addition  to  these  methodological  updates,  further  scenarios  are  analysed  in  the 
Third Clean Air Outlook, in particular reflecting the changes to the energy mix due to 
the war against Ukraine and the REPowerEU Plan and a shift to a flexitarian diet. 

These  differences  in  methodology  can  lead,  in  some  cases,  to  different  results  between 
the Third Clean Air Outlook and the analysis underpinning the revision of the Ambient 
Air Quality Directives. 

22