REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS First 'zero pollution' monitoring and outlook 'Pathways towards cleaner air, water and soil for Europe'
Date: 2022-12-08
Institutions: Directorate-General for Environment, European Commission
Subjects: EU action, air quality, climate change policy, environmental monitoring, environmental protection, industrial pollution, noise pollution, pollution control measures, soil pollution, water pollution

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 8.12.2022  COM(2022) 674 final  REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS First 'zero pollution' monitoring and outlook          'Pathways towards cleaner air, water and soil for Europe'                                  
 
 
1. 

INTRODUCTION 

Clean air,  clean water and clean soil in a resilient and thriving natural  environment are 
fundamental  for  healthy  lives.  The  isolation  forced  by  the  COVID-19  pandemic 
paradoxically  provided  new  insights  into  the  value  of  a  clean  and  bio-diverse 
environment.  Today,  the  Russian  war  against  Ukraine  and  its  resulting  energy  and 
economic  crisis,  the  post-COVID  recovery  efforts,  and  climate-induced  floods, 
heatwaves  and  droughts  are  undoubtedly  exacerbating  the  challenges  faced  by  the  EU, 
including the challenge to reduce pollution. 

The mid- and long-term pathway laid out by the European Green Deal and confirmed by 
the 8th environment action programme (8th EAP) to 2030, which sets out 2050 priority 
objectives1, remains valid. It includes, in line with the 2050 climate-neutrality goal, the 
zero pollution ambition for a toxic-free environment2. The EU action plan ‘Towards zero 
pollution for air, water and soil’3 and the chemicals strategy for sustainability4 set out a 
2050  vision5,  quantified  2030  targets  and  concrete  actions  to  put  the  EU  on  a  path  to 
achieving  zero  pollution  as  well  as  its  climate  and  nature  restoration  goals6.  The 
Commission  has  tabled several  relevant  proposals,  most recently  to revise the Ambient 
Air Quality Directive7,the Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive8 and update the list of 
water  pollutants  under  the  Water  Framework  Directive9  as  well  as  the  proposal  for  the 
Euro  7  emission  type  approval  for  motor  vehicles10.  The  importance  of  reducing 
pollution  as  a  means  of  improving  human  health  is  emphasized  in  Europe’s  Beating 
Cancer Plan11. 

This integrated  ‘zero pollution’ monitoring  and outlook report is  an integral  part of the 
8th EAP monitoring framework12 which sets out key indicators per priority objective and 
other sector-specific monitoring tools, for example for climate change, biodiversity13 and 
circular economy14, to provide a detailed and coherent picture. The overall objective of 
this report is to present the progress and outlook on the six targets that were adopted in 
the  Zero  Pollution  Action  Plan,  by  highlighting  also  the  existing  gaps.  It  answers 
questions like: How polluted is the EU? What are the trends over the past years? Can we 
achieve the 2030 zero pollution targets?  

See Article 2(1) of Decision (EU) 2022/591. 
See Article 2(2)(d) of Decision (EU) 2022/591. 

1 
2 
3  COM(2021) 400. 
4  COM(2020) 667. 
5 

‘A  Healthy  Planet  for  All:  Air,  water  and  soil  pollution  is  reduced  to  levels  no  longer  considered 
harmful to health  and natural ecosystems and that respect the  boundaries our planet can cope with, 
thus creating a toxic-free environment.’ 

6  COM(2020) 380. 
7  COM(2022) 542. 
8  COM(2022) 541. 
9  COM(2022) 540. 
10  COM(2022) 568. 
11  COM(2021) 44. 
12  COM(2022) 357. 
13  See Knowledge Centre for Biodiversity  
14  COM(2018) 29 and SWD(2018) 17 (currently under review). 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                 
This will support better governance on pollution by, in particular:  

  offering new, relevant insights;  

  monitoring whether policy implementation is on track;  

  analysing synergies and trade-offs between different EU policies;  

  helping translate ‘early  warnings’ into recommendations on pollutants of increasing 

concern based on the latest research findings. 

It also exposes a number of shortcomings and gaps that will be addressed in the coming 
years. These include difficulties in assessing soil pollution given the lack of an EU legal 
framework for monitoring and reporting, which will be tackled in upcoming laws on soil 
health  and  forest  monitoring,  as  well  as  the  challenge  of  combining  not  easily 
comparable  data,  stemming  from  different  scientific  sources  or  projects,  into  an 
integrated  picture.  Another  challenge  is  to  improve  the  sharing  and  use  of  the  latest 
available  data  so  that  they  adhere  to  the  FAIR  (findable,  accessible,  interoperable  and 
reusable) principles data15. While nearly real-time data are available for air policy, data to 
assess  water  and  the  marine  environment  are  often  outdated  and  incomplete,  although 
more up-to-date data are available at national level16. This issue is partially addressed in 
the  latest  proposals  on  the  monitoring  and  reporting  of  surface  and  groundwater 
pollutants  but  will  need  to  be  complemented  by  future  reviews  of  relevant  water  and 
marine laws. 

The report is the policy summary of the Monitoring Report which has been compiled by 
the EEA and integrates the most relevant past and current data across all pollution areas 
monitored  at  EU  level17  and  the  Outlook  Report  which  was  coordinated  by  the 
Commission’s Joint Research Centre18. The modelling and foresight results are based on 
an  assessment  of  the  expected  pollution-reduction  benefits  of  key  -  including  recently-
tabled  -  EU  policy  initiatives.  Sources  of  information  for  this  first  ‘zero  pollution’ 
outlook  report  include  the  third  Clean  Air  Outlook  Report19,  outlook  assessments  on 
noise20,  nutrients,  consumption  &  production  and  key  findings  of  the  recent  report  on 
foresight on zero pollution21. Moreover, the results of EU research programmes has been 
summarised  in  a  recent  report22  which  includes,  a  number  of  EU  funded  projects 

15  See here.  
16 

In  particular  the  reporting  cycles  of  the  Water  and  Marine  Strategy  Framework  Directives  are  not 
adequate  for  policy  making  and  implementation  and  are  made  worse  by  delays  in  Members  States 
delivering  these  reports.  By  the  end  of  October  2022,  more  than  six  months  after  the  deadlines,  14 
Member States (BE, BG, CY, DK, EL, ES, HR, IE, LT, MT, PL, PT, RO and SI) have not reported 
their 3rd River Basin Management Plans under the Water Framework Directive and 12 Member States 
(BG,  CY,  DK,  EE,  EL,  ES,  HR,  IE,  LV,  LT,  MT  and  SI)  have  not  reported  their  marine  strategies 
under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive.  

JRC (2022): ‘Zero pollution outlook’ 

17  EEA Zero Pollution Monitoring :https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/zero-pollution/zero-pollution 
18 
19  COM(2022) 673. 
20  EEA (2022): ‘Outlook to 2030-can the number of people affected by transport noise be cut by 30%?‘. 
21  FORENV report 2021 
22 

‘Horizon projects supporting the zero pollution action plan’. Report published by the Commission (DG 
RTD) in October 2022. 

2 

 
 
 
                                                 
providing  valuable  support  and  innovative  solutions  for  the  zero  pollution  knowledge 
base. 

2.  ZERO POLLUTION MONITORING 

This chapter briefly summarises the findings on zero pollution monitoring. It focuses on 
progress made so far and the distance towards achieving the 2030 targets. 

2.1.  Zero pollution & health 

The zero pollution & health targets for 203023 

Under EU law, Green Deal ambitions and in synergy with other initiatives, by 2030 the 
EU  should  reduce  by  more  than  55%  the  health  impacts  (premature  deaths)  of  air 
pollution and by 30% the share of people chronically disturbed by transport noise. 

Tangible progress has been made in reducing by 45% harmful health impacts related to 
air pollution (such as heart diseases, cancer and respiratory diseases), compared to 2005 
levels. By contrast, health harm linked to noise pollution, such as risk for cardiovascular 
diseases, sleep disturbance and annoyance24, has remained rather stable since 2012.  

The overall high rates of compliance with the EU  drinking and bathing water  pollution 
standards (>99% and >93% respectively) are encouraging. On the health effects of using 
chemicals,  although  the  levels  of  certain  chemicals  are  decreasing,  the  use  of  some 
substitute chemicals that present a similar risk is steadily increasing. Despite the progress 
made,  over  10%  of  premature  deaths  in  the  EU  each  year  are  still  related  to 
environmental pollution25. This is mainly due to high levels of air pollution, but also due 
to  noise  pollution  and  exposure  to  chemicals  which  is  likely  to  be  underestimated26. 
Pollution is not distributed equally across the EU. Vulnerable people, including children, 
the 
respiratory 
or cardiovascular diseases,  are  more  sensitive  to  pollution  exposure  and  those  in  lower 
socioeconomic groups also tend to be exposed to higher levels of pollution27. 

from asthma or 

suffering 

persons 

elderly 

other 

and 

Pollution legacy, e.g. from contaminated sites, is costly to eliminate because the polluter 
is  often  not  liable,  not  known,  or  not  able  to  pay  for  remediation.  This  underlines  the 
importance  of  avoiding  pollution  in  the  first  place  and  substituting  chemicals  with  less 
hazardous ones. Learning from the past, we must be extra vigilant in tackling pollutants 
of emerging concern, notably those stemming from pharmaceuticals and antimicrobials, 
‘forever’ chemicals (such as per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances, PFAS), endocrine 

23  See Annex 2 of COM(2021) 400 for details. 
24  EEA (2022): ‘Health impacts of exposure to noise from transport’.  
25  See here. 
26  Underestimation as only to a limited number of risk factors are considered and does not, for example 
address the real health risks related to exposure to chemicals. Work is ongoing in the Horizon Europe 
partnership for the assessment of risk from chemicals (PARC).  

27  EEA Report No 22/2018 and new signal here.  

3 

 
 
 
 
                                                 
disruptors  and  microplastics.  We  must  also  introduce  measures  to  address  the  health 
impacts of mixtures of chemicals and their combined effects, e.g. on indoor air quality28 

The Commission is addressing these issues across a wide range of initiatives, notably the 
the  chemicals  strategy  for 
circular  economy  action  plan  (e.g.  microplastics), 
sustainability (e.g. PFAS and the revision of the rules on the classification, labelling and 
packaging (CLP)29 of chemicals, as well as the REACH Regulation30 revision), the Zero 
Pollution action plan (e.g. indoor air quality and the recent communication on asbestos) 
and  the  soil  strategy  (e.g.  the  new  soil  health  law,  an  EU  priority  list  for  soil 
contaminants  of  emerging  concern,  improving  risk  assessment)31.  It  has  also  been 
proposed  to  progressively  align  EU  legal  standards  for  air  quality  with  relevant  WHO 
guidelines in order to better protect people’s health and wellbeing (e.g. to further reduce 
premature deaths). 

2.2.  Zero pollution & biodiversity 

The zero pollution & biodiversity targets for 203032 

Under EU law, Green Deal ambitions and in synergy with other initiatives, by 2030 the 
EU  should  reduce  by  25%  the  EU  ecosystems  where  air  pollution  threatens 
biodiversity and by 50% nutrient losses, the use and risk of chemical pesticides, the 
use of the more hazardous ones, and the sale of antimicrobials for farmed animals 
and in aquaculture. 

Pollution  is  one  of  the  five  main  threats  to  biodiversity33.  Planetary  boundaries  for 
pollution, i.e. the safe operating space of the Earth, are exceeded for nutrients (in Europe 
by  a  factor  of  two  for  phosphorus  and  a  factor  of  3.3  for  nitrogen)34  and  for  ‘novel 
entities’ (including chemicals and plastics)35. 

So  far,  compared  to  the  baseline  years36,  air  pollution,  pollution  from  pesticides  and 
antimicrobials  has  been  reduced  by  12%  (for  the  area  of  ecosystems  affected  by  air 
pollution), 14% (for the use and risk of chemical pesticides), 26% (for the use of more 
hazardous  pesticides)  and  18%  (for  antimicrobial  sales)  in  relation  to  the  above-
mentioned  targets.  For  the  50%  nutrient  losses  target,  data  are  still  being  collected.  A 

28  See here.  
29  Regulation (EC) No 1272/2008. 
30  Regulation (EC) No 1907/2006. 
31  COM(2020) 98, COM(2020) 667, COM(2021) 400, COM(2022) 488. 
32  See Annex 2 of COM(2021) 400 for details. 
33  These  five  threats  are  changes  in  land  and  sea  use;  direct  exploitation  of  natural  resources;  climate 

change; pollution; and the invasion of alien species (see IPBES).  

34   EEA Report No 01/2020 
35  Persson  et  al.  (2022):  ‘Outside  the  Safe  Operating  Space  of  the  Planetary  Boundary  for  Novel 

Entities’, Environmental Science & Technology (2022). 

36  See Annex 2 of COM(2021) 400 for details. 

4 

 
 
 
 
                                                 
range of proxy indicators37 seem to indicate that nutrient losses have remained relatively 
stable, with no indication of a significant reduction over the last decade. 

EU  pollution  limits  to  protect  biodiversity  have  been  exceeded  significantly.  Based  on 
2015  data,  23%  of  the  EU’s  almost  10 000  groundwater  bodies  and  59%  of  the  EU’s 
nearly 100 000 surface water bodies still fail to achieve ‘good chemical status’. Based on 
2018 data, 80% of the EU’s sea area does not  yet meet ‘good environmental status’ for 
contaminants.  13  Member  States  submitted  their  3rd  River  Basin  Management  Plan 
(RBMP)  before  the  end  of  October  2022.  A  preliminary  analysis  indicates  a  broadly 
stable  situation  compared  to  the  2nd  RBMP,  in  particular,  for  groundwater  chemical 
status.  Surface  water  ecological  status  and  chemical  status  is  more  mixed  with  some 
countries  showing  signs  of  improvement  while  others  report  deteriorating  quality.  A 
more comprehensive analysis is ongoing38.   

Scientific evidence points to additional challenges such as a lack of knowledge and data 
on  water,  marine  and  soil  pollution.  The  impact  of  pollutants  on  ecosystems  increases 
due to their combined effects. The scale of the impact of underwater noise, microplastics 
and light pollution39 on biodiversity is becoming increasingly evident.40 

The Commission has proposed a number of measures to better protect biodiversity from 
pollution,  mainly  as  part  of  its  biodiversity  and  ‘farm  to  fork’  strategies  (e.g.  on 
pesticides,  nutrients  and  antimicrobials),  its  Zero  Pollution  action  plan  (e.g.  on  water 
pollutants,  urban  wastewater)  and  its  soil  strategy  (e.g.  the  upcoming  law  on  soil 
health)41.  It  is  also  adapting  legal  standards  to  the  latest  scientific  evidence  and 
addressing  emerging  pollution,  e.g.  with  the  recent  proposal  on  the  list  of  water 
pollutants and the thresholds for underwater noise under the Marine Strategy Framework 
Directive.  The  combined  effects  of  pollutants  is  being  addressed  in  the  revision  of  the 
REACH  Regulation  and  other  chemicals  legislation.  The  European  Food  Safety 
Authority  (EFSA)  is  currently  developing  methods  to  assess  cumulative  effects  of 
pesticides, as set out in a specific Action Plan42. Finally, the impacts of light pollution on 
pollinating insects is being addressed by the Pollinator initiative. 

2.3.  Zero pollution & circular economy 

The zero pollution & circular economy targets for 203043 

Under EU law, Green Deal ambitions and in synergy with other initiatives, by 2030 the 
EU  should  reduce  by  50%  plastic  litter  at  sea,  by  30% microplastics  released  into 
the  environment,  by  50%  residual  municipal  waste  and  significantly  total  waste 
generation. 

37  See here. 
38  See here.  
39  E.g.  EEA  ETC-HE  Report  2022/8:  ‘Review  and  Assessment  of  Available  Information  on  Light 

Pollution in Europe’ 

40  See signals here.  
41  COM(2020) 380, COM(2020) 381, COM(2021) 400, COM(2022) 488. 
42  See here. 
43  See Annex 2 of COM(2021) 400 for details. 

5 

 
 
 
                                                 
Progress  towards  these  targets  has been slow. For plastic litter and microplastics, the 
collection  and  analysis  of  2015-2020  is  still  being  completed  and  it  is  not  possible  to 
provide a consolidated, agreed upon, EU-wide trend calculation. However, a preliminary 
review of the available data indicates that concentrations of plastic litter are declining on 
most EU coastlines, which is an encouraging sign. Harmonised data will be published in 
202344. Also the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive45, Single-
Use  Plastics  Directive46,  Port  Reception  Facilities  Directive47  and  initiatives  on 
microplastics48  will  help  to  develop  a  better  picture  for  marine  litter  and  assess  the 
microplastics  target  for  the  next  report  in  2024.  As  regards  waste,  the  latest  statistics 
indicate that total waste generation decreased by  4 % between 2010 and  202049. As for 
residual municipal waste, no significant change has been detected since 201650. At the 
same time, packaging waste has increased over the last 10 years by 19%. Similar to other 
areas,  the  implementation  deficit  of  existing  measures  and  the  failure  to  address  some 
pollution sources are the key reasons for the limited progress. Moreover, the presence of 
hazardous chemicals in products continues to hamper the recycling of materials. 

In contrast, air and water pollution from production in the EU is steadily decreasing, with 
EU  emissions  decreasing  by  between  3%51  and  26%52  in  2015  depending  on  the 
pollutant.  The  EU’s  overall  consumption  footprint53,  the  material  footprint  and 
chemical use by industry and consumers are so far relatively stable with lower numbers 
in 2020 most likely due to the COVID pandemic. The material footprint, i.e. worldwide 
demand  for  material  extractions  triggered  by  use  and  investment  by  businesses, 
households and governments in European countries, is very high, standing at 13.7 tonnes 
per  person  in  2020.  Overall,  the  environmental  impacts  associated  with  EU  production 
and consumption are high and not sustainable: they already significantly exceed the EU’s 
share  of  various  planetary  boundaries'54.  It  is  therefore  important  to  better  consider  the 
environmental impacts of the goods we import and the ‘export of pollution’ outside the 
EU.  This  is  relevant,  for  example,  for  the  extraction  sector  in  and  outside  the  EU, 
considering the importance of critical raw materials to the EU’s goal to increase its open 

JRC (2013): ‘Guidance for the Monitoring of Marine Litter’ 

44 
45  See more details here.  
46  Directive (EU) 2019/904.  
47  Directive (EU) 2019/883.  
48  https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/12823-Microplastics-

pollution-measures-to-reduce-its-impact-on-the-environment_en 

49  Eurostat : Statistics on generation of waste by waste category 
50  EEA (2022): ‘Reaching 2030’s residual municipal waste target — why recycling is not enough’  
51  For ammonia emissions to air. 
52  For the use of the more hazardous chemical pesticides. 
53  The  consumption  and  the  domestic  footprints  are  based on  a  set  of  16  life  cycle  assessment  (LCA)-
based  indicators  (also  available  as  a  single  score)  whose  purpose  is  to  quantify  the  environmental 
impacts  of  consumption  at  EU  and  Member  State-level.  See  details  at:  JRC  (2019)  and  European 
Platform on Life Cycle Assessment  
JRC (2020): ‘Environmental sustainability of European production and consumption assessed against 
planetary boundaries’ 

54 

6 

 
 
 
 
                                                 
strategic  autonomy  and  accelerate  the  green  transition.  Another  factor  to  consider  is 
waste shipment55. 

The  Commission  is  already  taking  steps  to  make  consumption  and  production  systems 
safer  and  more  sustainable,  mainly  under  the  circular  economy  action  plan56,  (e.g. 
measures  on  waste  shipment,  a  proposal  on  eco-design  for  sustainable  products,  the 
revision of the packaging and packaging waste directive)57 and the Zero Pollution action 
plan  (e.g.  measures  on  industrial  emissions)  as  well  as  the  EU  Bioeconomy  Strategy58. 
More actions are planned, e.g. the revision of the REACH Regulations or the assessment 
framework  for  ‘safe  and  sustainable  by  design’  for  chemicals  and  materials  under  the 
chemicals  strategy  for  sustainability  as  well  as  the  green  claims  initiative.  Further 
developing  EU  material  and  consumption  footprint  methods  and  indicators  and  their 
comparison to planetary boundaries can also bring better systemic insights.  

3.  ZERO POLLUTION OUTLOOK AND FORESIGHT 

Sources for this chapter include a number of projects and initiatives, including modelling 
and foresight studies coordinated by the Commission (see below). As far as possible, the 
modelling scenarios took into account the progress expected if current and proposed EU 
legislation  were  to  be  fully  implemented.  However,  each  outlook  is  based  on  specific 
assumptions  and  limitations  documented  in  the  specific  publications  referenced  below. 
The  findings  of  this  exercise  are  presented  as  Outlooks  for  clean  air,  clean  water  and 
marine environments, and clean soil. 

3.1.  Zero pollution & health 

The outlook for 2030 in relation to air and noise pollution was assessed against the likely 
achievement of the health-related targets (cf. 2.1).  

The  3rd  Clean  Air  Outlook59  found  that,  if  it  would  fully  implement  current  and 
proposed EU legislation, the EU would reduce the number of premature deaths due to air 
pollution  by  more  than  55%  in  2030  as  compared  to  2005.  Indeed,  as  a  result  of  the 
revision to the Ambient Air Quality Directive proposed by the Commission60, it is likely 
that  reductions  by  over  70%,  compared  to  2005  levels,  can  be  achieved  in  2030.  To 
ensure  that  the  expected  projections  materialise,  it  is  important  to  implement  existing 
legislation  in  full.  Equally,  it  is  important  that  recent  policy  proposals,  in  particular  on 
vehicle emission standards (Euro 7), industrial emissions (including extending the scope 
of the Industrial Emissions Directive to cover large farms, projected to have a significant 
impact  towards  reducing  ammonia  emissions)  and  initiatives  under  the  Fit  for  55  and 
RePowerEU  initiatives  are  adopted  swiftly  while  maintaining  the  proposed  ambition 
level. 

55  See here.  
56  COM(2020) 98. 
57  COM(2021) 709, COM(2022) 142 and COM(2022) 677. 
58  COM(2018) 673/2 and SWD(2018) 431/2. 
59  COM(2022) 673. 
60  Through  the  proposals  to  align  air  quality  standards  more  closely  with  the  WHO  guidelines.  See 

COM(2022) 542for details. 

7 

 
 
 
                                                 
On noise pollution, although EU has several pieces of specific legislation in place since 
200261,  it  seems  unlikely  at  this  stage  that  the  zero  pollution  noise  target  to  reduce  the 
number of people harmed by transport noise by 30% by 2030 (compared to 2017) will be 
achieved. Current estimates show that the number will not decline by more than 19% by 
2030,  unless  a  substantial  set  of  additional  measures  is  taken  at  national,  regional  and 
local level, and unless reinforced EU action across all relevant transport sectors leads to a 
significant  further  reduction  in  noise  pollution.  The  distance  to  target  can  be  further 
reduced if Member States strengthen their measures. This would amongst others include 
stricter  noise  regulations  and  enforcement62  for  transport,  e.g.  improving  vehicles  and 
their  operations  and  significantly  reducing  road  traffic  and  speed  limits  in  cities63.  The 
latter  is  already  envisaged  by  many  cities  as  part  of  their  climate  and  air  quality 
measures. 

3.2.  Zero pollution & biodiversity 

The  outlook  for  2030  in  relation  to  nutrient  pollution  of  air,  water  and  marine 
environment  was  assessed  against  the  likely  achievement  of  the  biodiversity-related 
targets  relevant  for  nutrient  (cf.  2.2).  No  assessment  was  carried  out  for  pesticides, 
antimicrobials  or  in  relation  to  soil  pollution  at  this  stage  due  to  the  lack  of  data  and 
availability of relevant models.  

The  3rd  Clean  Air  Outlook  found  the  situation  to  be  more  worrying.  Current  and 
proposed EU policies do not appear sufficient to enable the EU to reduce the area of EU 
ecosystems under threat from air pollution by 25% in 2030 compared to 2005. However, 
with  the  implementation  of  the  recently  proposed  revision  of  the  Ambient  Air  Quality 
Directives, this target could be achieved. 

The  main  area  of  concern  remains  ammonia  emissions  from  agriculture,  where  many 
more  reduction  efforts  are  still  needed  and  will  largely  depend  on  the  uptake  and 
implementation of the new Industrial Emissions Directive as well as on the actual uptake 
of  the  pollution-relevant  measures  proposed  by  Member  States  in  their  common 
agricultural policy (CAP) strategic plans.  

The  clean  Water  and  Marine  Outlook64  found  that  the  agreed  nutrient  targets  and 
additional measures proposed at EU level until now may not be enough to eliminate the 
impacts of nutrient pollution in all parts of the European seas. Similar to the air pollution 
scenarios,  reducing  nutrient  emissions  will  strongly  depend  on  the  implementation  and 
enforcement  of  the  relevant  environmental  legislation  (i.e.  Nitrates  Directive,  Water 
Framework  Directive  and  other  relevant  legislation  in  the  area  of  water  pollution 
including  the  revised  Industrial  Emission  and  Urban  Wastewater  Directives).    The 
measures  adopted  under  the  new  CAP  can  contribute  to  this  end.  The  Outlook  is 

61 

In particular the Environmental Noise  Directive  2002/49/EC but also specific source legislation, e.g. 
for  road  noise  Regulation  (EU)  No  540/2014,  Regulation  (EU)  2019/2144,  for  railway  noise 
Regulation (EU) 1304/2014 or for aircraft noise Regulation (EU) No 598/2014. 

62  E.g. see NEMO project.  
63  More  details  will  be  published  in  the  upcoming  Implementation  Report  on  the  Environmental  Noise 

Directive. 
JRC (2022): ‘Zero pollution outlook’ 

64 

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supported  by  an  integrated  analysis  on  nutrients  (looking  at  nitrogen  and  phosphorus 
pollution),  which  indicates  that  progress  can  be  made  with  the  current  measures,  but 
Member States will need to take further action if they are to meet the target on nutrient 
losses  to  the  environment  by  2030.  At  EU  level,  the  upcoming  integrated  nutrient 
management action  plan  will explore further  policy measures  to  improve nutrient-use 
efficiency  and  reduce  losses  to  the  environment  as  well  as  novel  techniques  and  the 
measures  necessary  to  foster  recovering  and  recycling  nutrients.  Moreover,  Horizon 
Europe,  will  support  systemic  approaches  to  limit  nutrient  emissions  from  different 
sources, and to bring their flows back within safe ecological boundaries, for instance by 
improving  the  management  of  fertilising  products  in  agriculture  while  considering 
regional  conditions.  It  will  also  analyse  reducing  waste  along  the  food  chain,  together 
with  societal  changes  (such  as  dietary  changes,  production  and  consumption  changes), 
can help.  

The Soil Outlook is at an early stage of development. Work initiated under the EU soil 
strategy and the EU Soil Observatory (EUSO)65 includes the development of modelling 
tools that will enable future pollution trends to be predicted. Moreover, the EU Mission 
“A Soil Deal for  Europe”66 sets  out  a trajectory to promoting  and restoring soil health, 
amongst others by expanding and harmonising soil monitoring in Europe.  

3.3.  Zero pollution & circular economy 

The  outlook  for  2030  in  relation  to  consumption  and  production  looked  at  plastic 
pollution and consumption but no assessment was carried out for the related targets (c.f. 
2.3).  

The  Water  and  Marine  Outlook  also  looked  at  modelling  of  plastics  pollution  in  the 
Mediterranean  Sea.  By  2030,  measures  included  under  the  single  use  plastic  (SUP)  is 
expected to reduce the total litter in  the Mediterranean by  only  14% (both  floating  and 
beach litter). Strengthening the cross-border dimension of plastics pollution needs to be 
emphasised  in  order  to  achieve  the  EU  target67.  Another  assessment  looked  at  the 
impacts  of  consumption  on  freshwater  toxicity  as  part  of  a  wider  outlook  on  the 
consumption footprint68. It predicted that the environmental impacts of EU consumption 
will  continue  to  increase  until  2030  and  will  continue  to  transgress  the  Planetary 
Boundaries69, including for freshwater ecotoxicity70. 

65  See here. 
66  See here.  
67  This  could  include  citizen  science  approaches,  such  as  through  the  EU  Mission  ‘Restore  our  Ocean 
and Waters’, that supports the EU-wide roll out of the Plastic Pirates initiative to engage and empower 
young people across Europe to monitor and tackle plastic pollution in rivers, coasts, and seas. 

68  Based on the JRC’s Consumption and Domestic Footprint, see here. . 
69 

JRC (2020): ‘Environmental sustainability of European production and consumption assessed against 
planetary boundaries’ 
JRC  (2022):  ‘Consumption  Footprint:  assessing  the  environmental  impacts  of  EU  consumption, 
European Commission’, JRC126257. 

70 

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3.4.  Zero pollution & foresight 

The  foresight  and  horizon  scanning71  revealed  that  current  societal  trends  and 
transformations, e.g. increasing digitalisation and decarbonisation72 will have impact on 
pollution. These transformations can bring about benefits for health and the environment, 
especially  if  the  zero  pollution  ambition  is  taken  as  a  guide.  E.g.,  the  industrial 
technology  roadmap  for  circular  technologies  and  business  models  under  preparation 
recalls research needs to address synergies as well as trade-offs between circularity and 
the  zero  pollution.  These  emerging  trends  and  the  ongoing  green  and  digital  transition 
can  provide  a  pathway  to  a  more  sustainable  Europe,  but  this  will  depend  on  the 
socioeconomic situation. 

4.  KEY CONCLUSIONS 

This integrated ‘zero pollution’ monitoring and outlook report underlines once more that 
the  three  concurrent  environmental  crises  -  pollution,  climate  change,  biodiversity 
loss, are deeply intertwined. Moving to a clean, circular and climate-neutral economic 
model is becoming increasingly pressing – both for the EU and for the rest of the world. 

The current economic and energy crisis caused by Russia’s war of aggression against 
Ukraine  and  the  recovery  from  the  COVID-19  pandemic  are  affecting  the  lives  of 
people across the EU. Certain pollution-reduction and control measures are failing due to 
supply chain disruptions73, which will make progress on reducing pollution much harder 
in the short term. In the medium to longer term, however, we can try to find ways to turn 
the current challenges into opportunities to tackle pollution. For instance, the  collective 
will  to  increase  the  EU’s  open  strategic  autonomy  by  significantly  accelerating  the 
deployment of clean renewable energy will also contribute to reducing pollution. 

It is clear that global cooperation to tackle the planetary crisis is intensifying. The EU 
must be part of the global solution, as its pollution footprint is too high74. Inequalities 
in pollution levels are also high, affecting the most vulnerable parts of society. The EU 
is  leading  the  call  for  ambitious  outcomes  in  the  COP15  negotiations  for  a  global 
biodiversity strategy and at the March 2023 UN Water Decade conference and is paving 
the way for a global plastics agreement. 

This report marks the starting point on the ‘Pathways towards cleaner air, water and 
soil  for  Europe’.  The  evidence  is  compelling,  and  so  are  the  challenges  and 
opportunities.  Overall,  the  levels  of  pollution  are  decreasing  in  several  pollution  areas, 

71 

In contrast to the modelling-based outlooks, foresight is exploring, anticipating and shaping the future 
using  collective  intelligence  in  a  structured,  and  systemic  way  to  anticipate  developments.  See 
FORENV report 2021 and synthesis summary as well as COM(2022) 289 

72  E.g.  pervasive  digital  tools  and  lifestyles,  transformations  in  where  and  how  we  live  and  work,  new 
pollution  monitoring  and  data  methods,  living  buildings  and  a  new  range  of  building  materials  and 
multi-faceted food system revolutions. 

73  E.g.  the  shortage  of  supplies  of  chemicals  needed  to  clean  polluted  air  (e.g.  ammonia  or  urea-based 
products  are  used  to  reduce  NOx  emissions  from  diesel-engine  vehicles)  or  water  (e.g.  iron  salts, 
hydrochloride or sulfuric acid for wastewater treatment). 

74  See EEA Report No 1/2020 ‘Is Europe living within the limits of our planet?’. 

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e.g.  as  regards  air  or  pesticides  pollution.  At  the  same  time,  other  pollution  problems 
persist, e.g. trends for noise, nutrient pollution or municipal waste generation are rather 
stable  over  the  past  years.  The  achievement  of  the  2030  zero  pollution  targets  is  not 
guaranteed  for  those.  Hence,  the  green  and  digital  transition  needs  to  accelerate  to 
enable the EU to achieve these 2030 targets. On its side, the Commission has delivered or 
advanced on all 33 of the announced actions for 2021-202475. 

What is most needed now for zero pollution to increasingly become a reality is: 

1.  the co-legislators’ agreement on key legislative proposals; 

2.  the  stepped-up  implementation  of  crucial  pieces  of  EU  law  at  local,  national 

and cross-border level76; and 

3.  the promotion of global initiatives, supporting third countries in their efforts. 

In addition, the report has identified a number of shortcomings such as the need for better 
sharing and using the latest available data. The Commission, together with the European 
Environment Agency (EEA), will address the identified knowledge and data gaps (e.g. on 
soil pollution) in order to present an even more comprehensive report by 2024. 

5.  NEXT STEPS  

This  first  ‘zero  pollution’  monitoring  and  outlook  report  provides  a  starting  point  for 
monitoring  progress  towards  the  EU’s  zero  pollution  ambition.  It  compiles  readily 
available  evidence  into  the  first  ever  EU-wide,  integrated,  high-level  overview  of  the 
main  threats  from  pollution  and  its  sources.  It  will  provide  input  into  the  first  progress 
report on the European Green Deal and the 8th environment action programme, due by 
the end of 2023. It sets out detailed information in most of the pollution-specific sections, 
e.g. on air, water, marine, chemical and noise pollution. It has also highlighted a number 
of shortcomings which will be addressed in a targeted manner by 2024. 

In particular, the report highlights that there are still significant knowledge and data gaps 
in some areas, e.g. on soil pollution and emerging issues that need attention. To address 
the data gap,  space data, services and applications provided by the EU earth observation 
system  Copernicus  have  considerable  potential.  Ongoing  and  planned  research  and 
innovation  will  also  support  the  next  editions  of  the  report77.  Other  areas  for 
the  efficiency  and 
improvement 
effectiveness  of  pollution  knowledge  management  (e.g.  by  streamlining  reporting, 
promoting  citizen  science  and  making  better  use  of  digital  tools).  Many  initiatives  are 

include  data  availability  and 

timeliness,  and 

75  See the Zero Pollution action tracker.  
76  Through  the  Technical  Support  Instrument  (Regulation  (EU)  2021/240),  the  Commission  supports 
Member States,  upon request,  in designing and implementing reforms across a  wide  range of policy 
areas,  including  tackling  air,  soil  and  water  pollution  as  well  as  fighting  biodiversity  loss  and 
supporting the transition to a more circular economy. 

77  See examples in Horizon Report. 

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already  under  way  or  planned,  e.g.  as  part  of  the  ‘one  substance,  one  assessment’ 
approach78 or the recent proposals on the water pollutant list79. 

The  Commission  and  the  EEA  will  lead  the  way  to  ensure  that  the  scope,  quality, 
timeliness and robustness of the ‘zero pollution’ monitoring and outlook framework will 
increase with every edition80. Moreover, the European Chemicals Agency  and the EEA 
are  working  together  to  develop  a  specific  indicator  framework  on  chemicals  that  will 
feed into the next report. 

A  particular  effort  will  also  be  made  on  further  improving  the  presentation  and 
visualisation  of  pollution  impacts,  including  by  combining  and  aggregating  the  various 
evidence to better support communication efforts. Moreover, the air, water & marine and, 
in particular, soil outlook capacities will be strengthened to better support policy making. 

These efforts will also help support the nine flagship strands of the Zero Pollution action 
plan,  since  better  monitoring  and  outlook  helps  us  to  identify  health  inequalities, 
improves  our  understanding  of  the  scale  of  pollution  from  products  and  buildings,  and 
enables  a  better  use  of  digital  solutions  for  monitoring  pollution.  A  robust  ‘zero 
pollution’  monitoring  and  outlook  also  contributes  to  global  pollution  assessment  as  it 
enables us to focus on specific cities and regions to determine their progress towards zero 
pollution. 

The Commission invites  EU institutions,  Member States,  businesses, non-governmental 
organisations,  academia  and  other  stakeholders  to  provide  feedback  on  this  first  zero 
pollution  monitoring  and  outlook  report81.  The  Commission  will  also  use  the  Zero 
Pollution Stakeholder Platform, set up in cooperation with the Committee of the Regions, 
to help prepare the second Zero Pollution Monitoring and Outlook Report in 2024.   

The next version of the report will take stock of the initial progress made and set out a 
perspective  for  achieving  the  2030  zero  pollution  targets  in  line  with  the  2050  zero 
pollution  vision  and  thereby  provide  an  input  to  the  midterm  review  of  the  8th EAP 
monitoring framework due in 2024.  

78  The Commission is planning to streamline the flow of information on chemicals into the relevant EU 
Agencies and make them available for reuse, including for the indicator framework. (see ‘Have your 
say’) 

79  COM(2022) 540. 
80  See SWD(2021) 141 for some details. 
81 

Interested  parties  can  also  reach  out  to  relevant  ongoing  Horizon  2020  and  Horizon  Europe  projects 
that are structured around the nine flagships in the above-mentioned report, so that the new knowledge 
and results can help in solving the problems of citizens, authorities, and the industry. 

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