Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2022. Autumn 2022.
Date: 2022-10-30
Institutions: Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development
Subjects: EU Member State, EU agricultural market, Russo-Ukrainian issue, agricultural economics, agricultural production, economic development, economic forecasting, economic intelligence, farm income, macroeconomics

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK 
for EU agricultural markets 
in 2022 

HIGHLIGHTS 

Agriculture 
Agriculture 
Agriculture 

and Rural 
and Rural 
and Rural 

Development 
Development 
Development 

0 

0 

AUTUMN 2022 

Edition N°34 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Manuscript completed in October 2022 

© European Union, 2022 

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While all efforts are made to provide sound market and income projections, uncertainties remain.  

The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of the European Commission. 

Contact: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, Analysis and Outlook Unit  

Email: agri-outlook@ec.europa.eu 

https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/data-and-analysis/markets/outlook/short-term_en 

Please cite this publication as: EC (2022), Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets, Autumn 2022. 
European Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural Development, Brussels. 

Agriculture 

and Rural 

Development 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OVERVIEW  

This short-term market outlook is driven by the negative impact of the 
hot and dry weather that affected large parts of the EU, by the impact 
of  the  Russian  invasion  of  Ukraine  on  energy  prices,  leading  to 
concerns  about  inputs  costs  and  their  supply  and  future  crop 
conditions,  and  by  food  price  inflation,  likely  to  also  impact  EU 
consumer  decisions.  This  outlook  is  subject  to  a  high  degree  of 
uncertainty  linked  to  developments  in  Ukraine,  including  Ukraine’s 
capacity  to  produce,  store  and  export  its  commodities.  Overall,  it  is 
assumed  that  there  will  be  no  further  worsening  of  an  already  very 
challenging situation. 

Weather  conditions  in  the  EU  deteriorated  exceptionally  in  summer 
2022, one of the hottest summers in recorded history, with record hot 
and/or  dry  conditions.  According  to  the  JRC’s  Combined  Drought 
Indicator, at the beginning of September 2022, 33% of the European 
territory  was  in  warning  conditions  and  26%  in  alert  conditions. 
Several  countries  restricted  water  use  for  irrigation  and  in  some 
regions  very 
irrigation 
impossible.  Summer  crop  yields  have  been  significantly  affected,  in 
particular grain maize, soybeans and sunflower. 

levels  made  field 

low  water 

reservoir 

Droughts were observed  in most parts of the EU, especially in Spain, 
France,  central  and  northern  Italy,  central  Germany,  and  Hungary, 
affecting the growth of summer crops and flower fertility, resulting in 
lower  yields.  Pastures  were  also  under  stress  in  most  European 
regions,  linked  to  dry  conditions,  particularly  in  western  and  central 
Europe.  In  addition,  heat  stress  to  animals  also  contributed  to  lower 
productivity in the livestock sector. 

At the same time, a combination of animal disease outbreaks (African 
Swine  Fever,  Avian  flu)  and  high  input  prices  weigh  on  the  EU  meat 
production, while meat prices are increasing as well. The EU pigmeat 
production notably is expected to decrease by 5% in 2022. 

The  Russian  invasion  of  Ukraine  makes  uncertainties  and  economic 
impacts in the EU (and Ukraine, an important agri-food producer and 
exporter) even more visible and of bigger concern. At the moment, the 
most  noticeable  impact  of  the  conflict  is  on  energy  markets,  in 
particular natural gas. The price of natural gas in the EU has reached 
new record levels in summer, leading to additional input costs for the 
EU food supply chain and further fuelling inflation. 

Linked to the energy price surge, another major concern for agriculture 
is  the  availability  and  cost  of  fertilisers  for  the  upcoming  season, as 
fertiliser  industries  need  natural  gas  to  produce  ammonia  and  other 
nitrogen products, reducing  or halting  production when prices are too 
high.  The  reduced  nitrogen  fertiliser  production  capacity  not  only 
affects  crop  production,  but  other  agri-food  sectors  as  well,  as  by-
products of  the process  include CO2 used  by  the  beverage and food 
processing sectors. 

 
 
 
 
The signature of the ‘Black Sea Grain Initiative’ by the 
United  Nations,  Turkey,  Ukraine,  and  the  Russian 
Federation  on  27  July,  together  with  the  functioning 
of  the  EU  Solidarity  Lanes  eased  the  pressure  on 
international  commodity  prices.  These  allowed  the 
resumption  of  Ukrainian  grain  exports  amid  the 
ongoing  war.  Trade  via  Solidarity  Lanes  remains 
significant,  although  without  further  infrastructure 
investments the limits in terms of volume are close to 
be  reached.    From  May  until  the  end  of  September, 
about  12.5  million  t  of  grains,  oilseeds  and  related 
products  were  transported  via  Solidarity  Lanes.  The 
Black Sea Grain initiative  expires after  120 days  but 
would  automatically  be  prolonged  unless  any  of  the 
parties  objects.  There  is  still  uncertainty  surrounding 
the  extension  of  the  Black  Sea  ports  agreement, 
which, contrary to the Solidarity Lanes, only allows for 
exporting  grains  and  no 
imports  of  any  kind 
whatsoever.  

Beyond  agricultural  production,  the  war  in  Ukraine 
continues putting a break on the EU economic growth 
forecasts, with uncertainties about the possibilities of 
real GDP growth in 2023. Inflation in the euro area is 
also expected to remain high in 2022, at +8.1%, and 
continuing 
in  particular 
reached  the  level  of  14%  in  August,  becoming  the 
second  contributor  to  inflation  after  energy  and 
affecting  particularly  prices  of  essential  food  items 
such as bread, milk, eggs and cheese  as well  as  oils 
and fats. 

in  2023.  Food 

inflation 

The  upward  pressure  on  producer  prices  is  not 
expected  to  relax  in  the  short  term  mainly  due  to 
ongoing  uncertainties  on how the  war in Ukraine will 
unfold  in  the  future  and  the  ongoing  impact  on  the 
price  and  availability  of  energy.  These  are  inevitably 

rising  production  costs,  along  the  whole  food  supply 
chain (e.g. electricity, processing, packaging, transport, 
cooling  and  heating),  posing  difficulties  for  all-size 
enterprises  but  for  small  and  medium  ones  in 
particular. 

income, 

Producer  prices  of  agricultural  commodities  are 
expected  to  continue  weighing  on  consumer  prices, 
remaining historically high despite a decline observed 
in  summer  following  the  reduction  of  commodity 
prices.  Farmers  are  under  the  double  pressure  of 
processors  and  distributors  who  want  to  preserve 
their  operating  margins,  and  further  down  the  food 
chain  by  consumers  who  are  facing  increasing  costs 
of  living  that  may  result  in  reduced  food  demand. 
Such  a  demand  reduction  is  already  expected  in 
several  sectors  for  the  coming  months,  and  further 
changes  in  consumer  preferences  could  be  expected 
to  preserve  disposable 
i.e.  more  retail 
shopping  and  less  foodservice,  or  purchasing  more 
‘private labels’ than branded products. At global level, 
another  visible  consequence  of  the  fight  against 
inflation  is  the  increase  in  interest  rates  by  central 
banks.  The  strengthening  of  the  US  dollar  at  global 
level  has  caused  a  record  depreciation  of  the  euro, 
with an exchange rate below parity for the first time 
in  20  years.    While  this  depreciation  could  have 
positive effects on trade competitiveness, as exports 
become  cheaper,  a  weaker  euro  also  implies  more 
costly  imports,  not  only  for  energy  products  such  as 
oil  and  natural  gas,  but  also  for  agricultural  inputs 
such  as  feed  and  fertilisers.  Fears  of  a  global 
recession,  as  well  as  the  stronger  US  dollar,  are 
currently  driving  oil  prices  downwards,  however 
OPEC+ countries have planned to cut oil production to 
bring prices again towards USD 100/bbl.  

2 

© BIB-Bilder_AdobeStock 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Looking  at  specific  EU  agricultural  markets,  a 
combination  of  the  drought  and  high  fertiliser  prices 
resulting  in  lower  application  rates  of  P  and  K  in 
particular,  also  contributed  to  lower  yields  for  the 
2022/23  harvest.  As  a  result,  total  EU  cereal 
production is now forecast to be 7.8% lower year-on-
year,  with  maize  showing  the  largest  reduction  in 
production: -23.7%. However, thanks to higher ending 
stocks in 2021/22, EU cereal exports could still grow 
(+6.5%),  and  therefore  continue  to  contribute  to 
global  food  security.    For  oilseeds,  given  high  prices 
and the temporary derogation to allow the cultivation 
of  certain  crops  on  set-aside  land,  the  area  under 
oilseed  crops  is  expected  to  reach  an  all-time  high, 
however  with  lower  yields  for  sunflower  and  soya 
total  oilseed 
beans, 
production  to  +7.5%  year-on-year.  EU  sugar  prices 
reached  record  levels  since  the  start  of  the  post-
quota  era  in  October  2017,  but  sugar  production  is 
expected  to  decline  by  6.9%  due  to  hot  and  dry 
summer. EU protein  crops  production is estimated to 
increase  by  +1.4%  year-on-year,  thanks  to  higher 
yields.  

returning  an 

increase  of 

Regarding specialized crops, EU olive oil production is 
expected to decline in 2022/23 by 25%, with a drop 
observed  in  almost  all  main  EU  producing  countries, 
except Greece. To some extent, the lower availability 
is likely to be covered by increased imports while EU 
exports could decline, especially to some more price-
sensitive  markets.  In  addition,  lower  availability  in 
main EU producing countries and ongoing pressure on 
consumer  prices  might  lead  to  an  EU  consumption 
decline (-9%). EU wine consumption could resume its 
historically decreasing trend from 23 L to 22.6 L per 
capita. EU consumption of fresh apples is expected to 

go slightly down to 12 kg per capita, mainly due to a 
rising  inflation  pressure  and  a  general  reduction  in 
fresh fruit consumption, but higher storage costs due 
to  higher  electricity  price,  the  high  production  in 
Poland  and  the  expected 
lower  quality  should 
increase the share of usable apple production used in 
processing.    EU  orange  production  is  expected  to 
decline  to  one  of  the  lowest  levels  since  2015/16, 
due  to  adverse  weather  conditions  particularly  in 
Spain.  Even though this is expected to result in higher 
prices,  the  quantities  destined  for  fresh  consumption 
could decrease less than that for processing. 

Regarding dairy products, the drought worsened grass 
availability and quality, in addition to  lower yields of 
main  crops  used  for  feed.  These  factors  could 
contribute to a decline in EU milk production (-0.5%), 
driven  by  lower  yield  growth  as  well  as  further  dairy 
herd reduction. The milk content (both fat and protein) 
could  also  be  impacted  negatively,  thus  reducing 
availability  for  milk  processing  even  more.  Among 
dairy products, only EU cream production is expected 
to  grow,  absorbing  a  large  part  of  fat  availability. 
Anticipation of even higher processing cost for drying 
milk  powders  over  the  winter  could  likely  result  in 
some  tensions  in  the  supply  of  butter  in  upcoming 
months,  and  the  annual  production  is  expected  to 
drop.  Overall,  a  drop  of  EU  exports  is  expected,  in 
particular  driven  by  lower  shipments  of  EU  milk 
powders  while  domestic  use  of  dairy  products  could 
remain stable in 2022. 

EU beef production is expected to decrease by 0.6% 
in 2022, due mainly to a structural adjustment in the 
beef  and  dairy  sector,  despite  high  beef  prices.  EU 
exports  could  decrease  by  1%,  due  to  record-high 
domestic prices and despite good export prospects to 

3 

 
 
 
 
some  existing  high-value  markets.  EU  imports  from 
the UK and Brazil are on the rise. 

Sustained  high  feed  costs  as  well  as  African  Swine 
Fever  (ASF)  continue  to  discourage  EU  pigmeat 
production  growth,  which  is  expected  to  decrease  by 
5%  in  2022.  While  China  is  returning  to  its  pre-ASF 
import levels, some EU pigmeat exports find their way 
to the UK and to other overseas destinations, despite 
high EU pigmeat prices. 

EU poultry production growth continues to be limited 
by  high  input  prices  –  especially  feed  and  energy  – 
and  Highly  Pathogenic  Avian  Influenza.  In  addition, 

very  high  EU  poultry  prices  means  less  competitive 
exports. On  the other hand, the suspension of duties 
on  products  coming  from  Ukraine  favours  poultry 
imports. 

Despite the historically low EU sheep and goat flock, 
slaughterings  are  not  expected  to  go  down  in  2022, 
despite  differences  among  EU  countries.  EU  imports 
should resume in 2022 and 2023 but still below pre-
COVID  levels,  leading  to  sustained  high  domestic 
prices. 

4 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
KEY 
MESSAGES  

  MACROECONOMIC  

OUTLOOK 

+3.1%  
expected euro area real GDP growth 
in 2022 in the ECB baseline 

-0.9% 
expected euro area real GDP growth 
in 2023 in the ECB “downside” 
scenario (vs +0.9% in the baseline)

+8.1% 
expected euro area inflation in 
2022 in the ECB baseline 

+14.3% 
EU consumer prices for food in 
August 2022, year-on-year 

Sustained  adverse  risks  call  for  a  further  reduction  of  euro  area’s  real  GDP  growth 
projection,  especially  if  the  war  continues  in  2023  and/or  gas  supplies  need  to  be 
rationed. 

Fossil fuel markets are  due to remain very tight and prices are expected to stay high 
and volatile. Marginal crude oil production increases become harder and harder while, 
with post-COVID-19, the demand has recovered. EU natural gas prices will also remain 
high  and  volatile  especially  due  to  uncertainties  in  Russian  supplies,  pending 
implementation of the RePowerEU strategy to reduce dependency on fossil fuels. This 
could also  create further  price pressure on electricity prices, being an important input 
for farmers and the food supply chain as a whole. 

High  energy  prices  and  agri-food  trade  disruptions  caused  by  Russia’s  invasion  of 
Ukraine  exacerbate  inflationary  pressures  throughout  the  supply  chains,  although  in 
some sectors and some EU countries effects might be witnessed with time-lag. 

  ARABLE CROPS 

5 

The  2022/23  EU  usable  cereals  production  is  projected  at  270.9  million  t,  a  5.1% 
decrease over the 5-year average (and a 7.8% decrease year-on-year), not least due to 
the drought conditions that affected maize in particular (-19.3%/5-year average).  

The poor harvest combined with high cereals prices and anticipated decrease in meat 
production  is  expected  to  reduce  the  use  of  cereals  for  feed  by  2.3%  year-on-year, 
while food use is expected to increase slightly (+0.7% year-on-year). However, trade of 
cereals  could  further  grow,  by  12.3%  compared  to  the  previous  marketing  year 
(including  +6.5%  of  exports  and  +24.7%  of  imports).  The  good  EU  oilseed  production 
(especially  of  rapeseed)  is  expected  in  2022/23  (32.2  million  t,  +8.5%  above  5-year 
average).  

2022/23 EU sugar production is forecast at 15.5 million t, -5.8% below 5-year average 
as  both  beet  planting  area  and  yields  were  reduced.  Sugar  consumption  is  also 
expected to decrease due to increasing prices. 

KEY 
MESSAGES  

270.9 million t 
Usable production of EU cereals in 
2022/23 (-5.1%/5-year average)

+23% 
EU wheat exports in 2022/23 

32.2 million t  
EU oilseeds production in 2022/23  
(+8.5%/5-year average) 

+30% 
Year-on-year increase in beginning 
stocks of sugar at the start of 
2022/23 season 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
KEY 
MESSAGES  

Olive oil: -25% 
EU olive oil production in 2022/23 

Wine: +1.5% 
EU wine production in 2022/23 

Apples: +18% 
EU apples destined for processing  

Oranges: +20% 
EU fresh oranges imports 

KEY 
MESSAGES  

Reduced milk solids 
constraining milk processing  

-0.5% 
EU milk collection in 2022 

-7% 
EU exports drop driven by losses in 
milk powders (in milk equivalent) 

Stable domestic use 
despite rising prices 

  SPECIALISED CROPS  

EU olive oil production is expected to decline in 2022/23 by 25%, with a drop observed 
in  almost  all  main  EU  producing  countries,  except  EL.  To  some  extent,  the  lower 
availability is likely to be covered by increased imports while EU exports could decline, 
especially  into  some  more  price-sensitive  markets.  In  addition,  lower  availability  in 
main  EU  producing  countries  and  ongoing  pressure  on  consumer  prices  might  lead  to 
the EU consumption decline (-9%). 

Contrarily to the olive oil, 2022/23 EU wine production is forecast to increase (+1.5% 
year-on-year).    The  final  production  figures  will  be  determined  by  water  and  thermal 
stress,  impacting  both  quantity  and  quality  of  grapes,  and  potentially  leading  to  an 
early harvest. EU consumption could resume its historically decreasing trend from 23 L 
to 22.6 L per capita after two years of perturbations due to the COVID-19.  

2022/23 EU consumption of fresh apples is expected to go slightly down to 12 kg per 
capita, mainly due to a rising inflation pressure and a general reduction in fresh fruit 
consumption.  The  higher  electricity  price,  the  high  production  in  PL  and  the  expected 
lower quality should increase the share of usable apple production used in processing.  
EU  orange  production  is  expected  to  decline  in  2022/23  to  one  of  the  lowest  levels 
since 2015/16, due to adverse weather conditions particularly in ES.   Despite the low 
orange production and expected higher prices, the amount for fresh consumption could 
decrease less than that for processing. 

6 

  MILK AND DAIRY 

PRODUCTS 

Hot  and  dry  weather  over  the  summer  worsened  grass  availability  and  quality,  in 
addition to lower yields of main crops used for feed. Many farmers already used part 
of their winter feed in summer, leading to lower yield growth (0.4%) as well as further 
herd reduction (-0.9%). The milk content (both fat and protein) could be impacted also 
negatively,  thus  worsening  the  milk  processing  outlook  even  more.  Among  all  dairy 
products,  only  EU  cream  production  could  grow,  absorbing  a  large  part  of  the  fat 
availability. Anticipation of even higher processing costs  of drying milk  powders  could 
likely  cover  for  some  current  shortages  for  butter,  but  the  production  is  expected  to 
drop.  EU  cheese  production  could  again  become  a  preferred  option,  driven  by  a  high 
price,  while  both  exports  and  domestic  use  remain  stable.  The  competitiveness  of  EU 
milk powders is suffering from prevailing high prices, hampering exports and therefore 
preventing production growth despite a positive growth of whey and SMP domestic use. 

In 2023, the start of the year could remain challenging for farmers when coping with 
high input costs, and a likely weaker demand. Assuming normal weather conditions, it is 
expected  that  the  yield  growth  could  be  slightly  higher  (0.6%)  and  could  compensate 
for  further  dairy  herd  reduction  (-0.8%).  As  a  result,  EU  milk  collection  could  drop 
modestly by 0.2%. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
KEY 
MESSAGES 

-0.6% 
EU beef production in 2022 

-5% 
EU pigmeat production in 2022 

+27% 
poultry price Jan-mid-Sep 2022 
year-on-year 

+10% 
EU sheep imports on the rise 

  MEAT PRODUCTS 

EU beef production is expected to decrease by 0.6% in 2022, due mainly to a structural 
adjustment  in  the  beef  and  dairy  sector,  despite  high  beef  prices.  EU  exports  should 
decrease by 1%, due to record-high domestic prices and despite good export prospects 
to some existing high-value markets. EU imports from the UK and Brazil are on the rise. 

Sustained high feed costs as well as African Swine Fever (ASF) continue preventing EU 
pigmeat  production  growth.  While  China  is  resuming  pre-ASF  import  levels,  some  EU 
pigmeat exports find their way to the UK and other overseas destinations, despite high 
EU pigmeat prices. 

EU poultry production growth continues to be limited by high input prices – especially 
feed  and  energy  –  and  Highly  Pathogenic  Avian  Influenza.  In  addition,  very  high  EU 
poultry  prices  means  relatively  less  competitive  exports.  On  the  other  hand,  the 
suspension of duties on products coming from Ukraine favours poultry imports. 

Despite the historical low EU sheep and goat flock, slaughterings are not expected to go 
down  in  2022  but  large  differences  among  EU  countries  exist.  EU  imports  should 
resume  in  2022  by  10%  and  another  4%  next  year,  still  below  pre-COVID  levels, 
leading to sustained high domestic prices. Trade should further resume in 2023. 

7 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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