JRC MARS Bulletin : global outlook : crop monitoring European neighbourhood Kazakhstan. September 2022.
Date: 2022-09-26
Institutions: Joint Research Centre
Subjects: Kazakhstan, agricultural situation, atmospheric conditions, crop production, crop yield, meteorology, serial publication

Issued: 26 September 2022 

JRC MARS Bulletin – Global outlook 
Kazakhstan, September 2022 

JRC MARS Bulletin - Global outlook 
Crop monitoring European neighbourhood 
Kazakhstan 
September 2022 

Fair outlook for cereals yields and production 

The yield forecasts at country level are somewhat above 

Grain maize, which is confined to South Kazakhstan, and 

the  5-year  average  for  winter  cereals  (+6%)  and  grain 

generally  irrigated,  benefited  from  the  same  favourable 

maize  (+6%),  and  slightly  below  the  5-year  average  for 

conditions.  

spring  cereals  (-2%).  Compared  with  last  year’s  poor 

As  the  cultivated  areas  for  wheat  and  grain  maize 

performance, the yield and production outlook is distinctly 

expanded,  the  production  forecasts  for  these  crops  are 

positive, with an expected production increase of 23% for 

more positive than the yield forecasts. 

wheat and 39% for barley. 

Rainfall  and  associated  soil  moisture  conditions  under 

spring  cereals  have  been  variable  among  regions  but 

resulted  in  overall  fair  yield  expectations  in  the  main 

regions, 

producing 
In  East 
Kazakhstan, scarce rainfall in July negatively impacted the 
yield  potential,  whereas  more  adequate  precipitation  in 

in  North  Kazakhstan. 

Northwest Kazakhstan  provided beneficial conditions  for 
growth and yield formation.  
Winter  cereals  –  which  are  mainly  produced  in  South 

Kazakhstan - were already at the grain-filling stage at the 

start  of  the  current  review  period,  since  when  weather 

conditions  in  the  main  producing  areas  have  been 

favourable  for  yield  formation,  ripening  and  harvesting, 

resulting in a positive yield outlook.   

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 26 September 2022 

Meteorological overview 

Near-average temperatures predominated in July and August in all regions. However, the main agricultural areas of 

the north and east were characterised by irregular rainfall resulting in periods of rainfall deficit, particularly during the 

months of June and July. 

- 

In  North  Kazakhstan  macro-region 

(Severo-

the LTA, resulting in a distinctly negative water balance 

kazachstanskaya,  Akmolinskaya  and  Kustanayskaya 

for the period as a whole. In Vostochno-kazachstanskaya, 

oblasts),  temperatures  fluctuated  around  the  long-term 

rainfall  followed  near-average  patterns  until  July,  but 

average  (LTA),  with  maximum  temperatures  reaching 
values  between  30 °C  and  35 °C  for  a  few  days  in  the 
second half of June, in mid-July and at the beginning of 

September. A few distinctly colder-than-usual days were 

then also decreased below the LTA, resulting in a negative 

climatic water balance anomaly since July.  
- In Northwest Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya 
and  Aktyubinskaya  oblasts),  temperatures  fluctuated 

registered at the end of June and the beginning of July, 

around the average in June. After a cold beginning to July, 

in  mid-August  and  in  mid-September.  Rainfall  was 

temperatures  remained  mainly  above  the  LTA  until  the 

regionally variable. In Kustanayskaya, the period was dry, 

beginning  of  September,  after  which  they  dropped  for 

with  rainfall  about  65%  of  the  LTA.  In  Akmolinskaya, 

several  days  to  well  below  seasonal  levels.  The  period 

rainfall was close to seasonal values  but scarce in July 

ended  with  an  increase  in  temperatures  to  above 

and  September.  In  Severo-kazachstanskaya,  rainfall 

remained  slightly  below  the  LTA  until  mid-July,  after 

which  it  diminished  further,  resulting  in  around  70%  of 

seasonal levels. The  highest  maximum temperatures of 
37 °C  were  registered  around  mid-July  in  Zapadno-
kazachstanskaya.  Rainfall  was  in  general  slightly  below 

the LTA for the period as a whole. 
-  In  East  Kazakhstan  (Pavlodarskaya,  Vostochno-
oblasts), 
kazachstanskaya 

Karagandinskaya 

and 

prevailing temperatures were slightly above the LTA, with 

seasonal 

levels,  but  nearly  absent 

in  August 

in 

Aktyubinskaya. 
-  In  the  agricultural  regions  of  South  Kazakhstan 
and 
(Almatinskaya, 

Jambylskaya, 

Turkestan 

warmer-than-usual  temperatures  registered  for  a  few 

Kyzylordinskaya oblasts), temperatures were on average 

days in June (reaching Tmax around 34 °C at the end of 

slightly higher than usual in June and July, and close to 

June  in  Pavlodarskaya)  and  during  the  first  week  of 

seasonal levels in August and September when two cold 

September. However, a few colder-than-usual days were 

periods alternated with warmer-than-usual days. Rainfall 

observed at the end of June, the beginning of the second 

in  Kyzylordinskaya  oblast  was  well  below  the  LTA 

half of August and in mid-September. In Pavlodarskaya, 

throughout  the  review  period.  In  Jambylskaya  and 

after a rainy start to June, precipitation decreased below 

Turkestan, rainfall decreased below seasonal values from 

July, in Almatinskaya from mid-June. 

2 

 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 26 September 2022 

3 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 26 September 2022 

Crop canopy conditions 

The maps above display the differences between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) cumulated from 

1 June to 30 June 2022 (top) and from 1 July to 10 September 2022 (bottom), and the medium-term average (MTA, 
2012-2021) for the same periods, in arable land areas. Positive anomalies (in green) reflect above-average canopy 

density or early crop development while negative anomalies (in red) reflect below-average biomass accumulation or 

late crop development. 

4 

 
JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 26 September 2022 

The top map, referring to June, predominately reflects the 
condition of winter cereals, as spring cereals had just 
been sown in the most important producing regions and 

thus contributed little to NDVI values. Positive anomalies 

are observed in Northwest Kazakhstan and parts of North 

Kazakhstan, which can be linked to slightly delayed crop 

this  region  had  already  reached  the  end  of  the  grain-

filling development phase in June. 

The  bottom  map, referring to July,  August and the first 
dekad  of  September,  predominately  reflects  spring 
cereal conditions, as winter cereals were ripening or had 
already been harvested. Overall, the patterns are similar 

development due to the colder-than-usual month of May. 

to  the  map  for  June,  with  the  exception  of  a  stronger 

In  addition,  the  north-western  regions  benefited  from 

prevalence  of  negative  anomalies  in  North  Kazakhstan. 

adequate soil water supplies which contributed to above-

Positive  anomalies  prevail  in  Northwest  Kazakhstan, 

average  biomass  accumulation.  The  negative  NDVI 

which may be related to the adequate soil moisture levels 

anomalies  in  East  Kazakhstan  and  parts  of  North 

in  these  regions.  NDVI  anomalies  are  negative  in  East 

Kazakhstan can be explained by the negative impact of 

Kazakhstan and in parts of North and South Kazakhstan, 

the  rainfall  deficit  on  crop  growth.  NDVIs  in  southern 

as a result of the irregular precipitation that resulted in a 

regions are deemed of little relevance, because crops in 

lower-than-usual water balance in these regions. 

5 

 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 26 September 2022 

Crop growth conditions 

Winter cereals 
Adequate, although irregular, rainfall continued to sustain a fair yield outlook 

Frequent rainfall since May sustained growth during most of the growing season in the main winter cereal producing 

areas in South Kazakhstan. Rain deficit negatively affected the crops in East Kazakhstan and parts of North Kazakhstan. 

After a cold May, particularly favourable weather conditions benefited the crops in Northwest Kazakhstan. At national 

level, yield expectations are close to the historical trend and above the 5-year average. 

- 

In  North  Kazakhstan 

(Kustanayskaya,  Severo-

kazachstanskaya and Akmolinskaya oblasts), our models 

- In Northwest Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya 
and  Aktyubinskaya  oblasts),  crops  were  slightly  delayed 

indicate crop development in line with an average season, 

due  to  the  colder-than-usual  weather  in  May.  Soil 

although slightly delayed in Kustanayskaya. Model-based 

moisture availability continued to be adequate for growth 

indicators show a decrease in leaf area expansion in the 

and  yield  formation.  Our  simulation  models  indicate 

northernmost  areas  since  May,  when  soil  moisture 

above-average 

leaf 

area 

expansion, 

biomass 

reached  critical  levels,  whereas  in  Kustanayskaya  mild 

accumulation  and  yields.  The  harvesting  campaign  was 

temperatures and adequate soil moisture ensured above-

average growth. Yield forecasts are close to the historical 
trend (above the 5-year average). 
-  In  East  Kazakhstan  (Pavlodarskaya,  Vostochno-
oblasts), 
kazachstanskaya 

Karagandinskaya 

and 

mainly  completed  in  August.  Yield  expectations  remain 
above the 5-year average.  
-  In  South  Kazakhstan  (Almatinskaya,  Jambylskaya, 
Turkestan  and  Kyzylordinskaya  oblasts),  where  most  of 

the country’s winter wheat is grown, weather conditions in 

development of winter cereals was slightly advanced from 

June  and  July  were  favourable  for  yield  formation,  and 

May. In Pavlodarskaya oblast, crops started the period in 

facilitated  full  ripening  of  grain  and  the  harvesting  of 

fair  condition,  but  warmer-than-usual  temperatures 

winter  cereals.  Given  that  the  crop  benefited  from  fair 

combined with decreased soil moisture in June negatively 

weather  conditions  throughout  the  growing  season, 

impacted  biomass  and  yield  formation  in  this  region.  In 

although  with  regional  variations,  our  yield  outlook  for 

Vostochno-kazachstanskaya,  crops  started  the  period 

winter  cereals  is  slightly  above  the  5-year  average. 

under suboptimal conditions for growth, which continued 

Harvesting started in mid-June in the westernmost areas 

until  the  end  of  the  growing  cycle.  The  harvesting 

of  the  south,  and  was  mainly  completed  in  the  second 

campaign was mainly completed in August. Overall, yield 
prospects are below the 5-year average.  

dekad of August.  

At  country  level,  the  yield  forecast  for  winter  cereals  is 

above the 5-year average. 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 26 September 2022 

Spring cereals and grain maize 
Near-average outlook for spring cereals despite variable rainfall

In the country’s main spring cereal producing region in the north, the harvesting campaign for spring cereals was mostly 

completed by the end of September, with variable results due to irregular water supply during the summer months. 

-  In  the  most  important  spring  cereal  producing  macro-
region,  North  Kazakhstan  (Kustanayskaya,  Severo-
kazachstanskaya and  Akmolinskaya oblasts), the sowing 

campaign was completed on time (during the first dekad 

the 5-year average. The harvesting campaign was almost 

concluded in September. 
- In Northwest Kazakhstan (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya 
and Aktyubinskaya oblasts), crop development was in line 

of June) under favourably dry weather conditions. Rainfall 

with an average season. Rainfall was generally favourable 

in June was sufficient for crops to establish well. During 

during the growing cycle, and the limited water supply at 

the  growing  cycle,  rainfall  became  irregular  and  locally 

the  end  of  the  grain-filling  period  only  slightly  reduced 

absent  in  many  northern  areas,  but  more  favourable 

yield potential. The yield outlook remains positive. Harvest 

conditions  occurred  in  the  central  northern  region  of 

Akmolinskaya oblast, which at national level partly offset 

the  yield  losses.  Yield  forecasts  for  spring  cereals  have 

been slightly decreased with respect to the June edition of 
the Bulletin1 but remain close to the 5-year average. The 
harvesting  campaign  for  spring  cereals  was  mostly 

is nearly concluded. 
-  In  South  Kazakhstan  (Almatinskaya,  Jambylskaya, 
Turkestan  and  Kyzylordinskaya  oblasts),  crop  conditions 

varied  significantly  among  regions.  Adequate  rainfall 

distribution  in  most  of  the  southern  agricultural  areas 

sustained  above-average  leaf  expansion  and  growth, 

completed by the end of September. 
-  In  East  Kazakhstan  (Pavlodarskaya,  Vostochno-
kazachstanskaya and Karagandinskaya oblasts), reduced 

whereas less favourable thermal conditions and reduced 

water  supply 

in  Almatinskaya  hampered  biomass 

accumulation and yield formation. Nevertheless, the yield 

water  supply  in  June  and  July  hampered  biomass 

forecast remains positive overall and slightly above the 5-

accumulation and yield potentials in many areas. Overall, 

year  average.  Harvesting  has  mostly  been  concluded  in 

yield  forecasts  have  been  revised  downwards,  to  below 

these regions. 

1 https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC127977 

7 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                        
JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 26 September 2022 

Grain  maize  in  Kazakhstan  is  generally  irrigated  and 

underway  in  September  and  yield  expectations  are  fair. 

confined to the south. Biomass accumulation is therefore 

The yield forecast is above the 5-year average and in line 

close  to  the  potential  level,  and  the  inter-annual  yield 

with the historical trend. 

variation  is  relatively  small.  The  harvest  campaign  was 

8 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Crop yield forecast

JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 26 September 2022 

Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - spring wheat - September 2022 Bulletin

Country

Avg 5yrs

2021

2022

%22/5yrs %22/21

Avg 5yrs

2021

Area (x 1000 ha)

Kazakhstan
East Kazakhstan
North Kazakhstan
Nothwest Kazakhstan
South Kazakhstan
Southwest Kazakhstan

11 045 11 323
1 015
9 857
 393
 58
—

1 271
9 312
 414
 48
—

11 743
1 061
10 214
 408
 60
—

+ 6
– 17
+ 10
– 1
+ 26
—

+ 4
+ 5
+ 4
+ 4
+ 3
—

1.09
1.10
1.09
0.93
1.73
—

0.92
1.32
0.89
0.57
1.43
—

Yield (t/ha)

MARS 
2022 
forecasts
1.07
1.00
1.07
1.02
1.85
—

Production (x 1000 t)

%22/5yrs %22/21

Avg 5yrs

2021

2022

%22/5yrs

%22/21

– 2
– 10
– 2
+ 10
+ 7
—

+ 16
– 24
+ 21
+ 78
+ 29
—

12 045 10 385
1 339
8 738
 225
 83
—

1 400
10 179
 384
 83
—

12 535
1 058
10 950
 417
 111
—

+ 4
– 25
+ 8
+ 9
+ 34
—

+ 21
– 21
+ 25
+ 85
+ 33
—

 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 26 September 2022 

Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - spring barley - September 2022 Bulletin

Country

Avg 5yrs

2021

2022

%22/5yrs %22/21

Avg 5yrs

2021

Area (x 1000 ha)

Kazakhstan
East Kazakhstan
North Kazakhstan
Nothwest Kazakhstan
South Kazakhstan
Southwest Kazakhstan

2 477
 403
1 478
 152
 445
—

2 150
 378
1 153
 140
 480
—

2 400
 418
1 301
 155
 526
—

– 3
+ 4
– 12
+ 2
+ 18
—

+ 12
+ 11
+ 13
+ 11
+ 10
—

1.37
1.19
1.31
0.92
1.91
—

1.10
1.27
0.92
0.62
1.52
—

Yield (t/ha)

MARS 
2022 
forecasts
1.37
1.11
1.27
0.96
1.93
—

Production (x 1000 t)

%22/5yrs %22/21

Avg 5yrs

2021

2022

%22/5yrs

%22/21

– 1
– 7
– 3
+ 5
+ 1
—

+ 25
– 13
+ 38
+ 55
+ 27
—

3 400
 479
1 931
 139
 851
—

2 356
 478
1 063
 87
 727
—

3 277
 463
1 652
 149
1 013
—

– 4
– 3
– 14
+ 7
+ 19
—

+ 39
– 3
+ 55
+ 72
+ 39
—

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 26 September 2022 

Yield forecasts for Kazakhstan - grain maize - September 2022 Bulletin
Yield (t/ha)

Area (x 1000 ha)

Production (x 1000 t)

Country

Avg 5yrs

2021

2022

%22/5yrs %22/21

Avg 5yrs

2021

Kazakhstan
East Kazakhstan
North Kazakhstan
Nothwest Kazakhstan
South Kazakhstan
Southwest Kazakhstan

 154
 7
—
—
 146
—

 174
 12
—
—
 161
—

 178
 12
—
—
 166
—

+ 16
+ 55
—
—
+ 14
—

+ 3
– 5
—
—
+ 3
—

5.96
2.96
—
—
6.12
—

6.37
2.77
—
—
6.64
—

MARS 
2022 
forecasts
6.34
3.17
—
—
6.56
—

%22/5yrs %22/21

Avg 5yrs

2021

2022

%22/5yrs

%22/21

+ 6
+ 7
—
—
+ 7
—

– 0
+ 15
—
—
– 1
—

 918
 22
—
—
 896
—

1 105
 34
—
—
1 071
—

1 129
 37
—
—
1 092
—

+ 23
+ 66
—
—
+ 22
—

+ 2
+ 9
—
—
+ 2
—

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin, Kazakhstan – 26 September 2022 

Colophon 

The  JRC  MARS  Bulletin  –  Global  outlook  is  a  European 
Commission  publication  of  the  Joint  Research  Centre’s 
AGRI4CAST  project  (JRC  Food  Security  Unit –  Directorate 
for Sustainable Resources) 

Legal notice 
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting 
on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, 
which might be made of this publication. 

JRC MARS Bulletins are available at 
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins 

AGRI4CAST Resources are available at 
https://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu  

Analysis and reports 
S. Bassu, L. Nisini, G. Ronchetti 

Reporting support  
SeproTec, I. Biavetti 

Edition  
S. Bassu, M. van den Berg 

Data production 
AGRI4CAST (Food Security Unit JRC D5), MARSOP6 
Consortium 

Contact 
JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu  

Disclaimer 
The  geographic  borders  are  purely  a  graphical 
representation  and  are  only  intended  to  be  indicative. 
The  boundaries  do  not  necessarily  reflect  the  official 
European Commission position.   

Technical note  
The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as 
a  reference  is  based  on  an  archive  of  data  covering 
1991-2021.  The  medium-term  average  (MTA)  used 
within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive 
of data covering 2012-2021. 

© European Union, 2022 

Mission  statement: As  the  science  and  knowledge  service  of 
the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission 
is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout 
the whole policy cycle.  

PDF: KJ-BQ-22-008-EN-N ISSN 2600-2817 doi:10.2760/933261