REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE EMPLOYMENT COMMITTEE Report on the European instrument for Temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) following the COVID-19 outbreak pursuant to Article 14 of Council Regulation (EU) 2020/672 SURE: Two Years On
Date: 2022-09-23
Institutions: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: EU aid, coronavirus disease, economic consequence, emergency aid, employment aid, epidemic, fight against unemployment, self-employed person, short-time working, social impact

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 23.9.2022  COM(2022) 483 final  REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE EMPLOYMENT COMMITTEE Report on the European instrument for Temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) following the COVID-19 outbreak pursuant to Article 14 of Council Regulation (EU) 2020/672         SURE: Two Years On  
 
 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

This  report  is  the  fourth  bi-annual  report  on  the  European  instrument  for  temporary 
Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE). It confirms the findings 
outlined  in  the  previous  reports,  presents  the  operations  and  use  of  the  instrument  to  date  and 
reviews its socio-economic impact. SURE is a crisis instrument, with a size of EUR 100 billion, 
created by the European Union (EU) to help Member States protect jobs and workers’ incomes 
in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. SURE is also a strong expression of solidarity across 
Member States through the EU: all Member States agreed to provide bilateral guarantees to the 
EU  so  that  the  Union  could  borrow  from  the  markets  at  very  favourable  conditions  to  finance 
SURE loans.  

A new instrument put in place quickly to respond to the socioeconomic impact of the pandemic  

The  implementation  of  the  instrument  was  swift  and  smooth.  As  part  of  the  EU’s  initial 
response to the pandemic, the Commission proposed the SURE Regulation on 2 April 2020, and 
the Regulation was adopted by the Council on 19 May 2020. The financial envelope of EUR 100 
billion  became  available  on  22  September  2020,  after  all  Member  States  signed  the  guarantee 
agreements. The Commission speeded up the implementation of the instrument, working closely 
with  the  Member  States.  Most  of  the  granted  financial  assistance  was  disbursed  in  just  seven 
months, from October 2020 to May 2021. A further disbursement took place in March 2022 to 
accommodate Member States who preferred to receive funds later.  

The  EU  issued  social  bonds  for  the  first  time  to  finance  SURE  financial  assistance  to 
Member States. On top of the requirements of the SURE Regulation, this report also provides 
the relevant reporting under the EU SURE Social Bond Framework and re-confirms that SURE 
spending has been well aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. 

The  Commission  successfully  issued  a  further  EUR  2.2  billion  of  SURE  social  bonds  in 
March  2022.  The  large  oversubscription  of  the  issued  bond  further  illustrates  investors’ 
confidence in the financing capacity of the EU and in the robustness of the SURE programme. 
After  this  8th  SURE  social  bond  transaction  and  disbursement,  EUR  91.8  billion  of  SURE 
financial assistance had been disbursed to 19 Member States, which corresponds to almost all the 
amount  granted  by  the  Council  (EUR  93.3  billion,  after  the  recent  Council  Implementing 
Decision on Romania). 

The continued use of SURE by beneficiary Member States  

This  report  confirms  the  earlier  estimate  that  SURE  covered  around  31½  million  people 
and 2½ million firms in 2020, when the pandemic broke out. This represents almost one third 
of  total  employment  and  of  total  firms  in  beneficiary  Member  States.  SMEs  have  been  the 
primary  recipients  of  SURE  financial  assistance.  The  most  supported  sectors  were  contact-
intensive  services  (accommodation  and  food  services,  wholesale  and  retail  trade),  and 
manufacturing. 

In 2021, particularly in the first half of the year when the pandemic  still  wreaked havoc, 
SURE  continued  to  support  an  estimated  9  million  people  and  over  800,000  firms. 

1 

 
 
 
Economic  support  measures  were  still  required  in  the  first  half  of  2021  but  were  subsequently 
phased out  as both  the economic and health impact  of the pandemic lessened later in  the  year, 
due to vaccinations and the adaptation of economies to the changes induced by the COVID-19 
pandemic.  

In  the  first  half  of  2022,  when  most  of  the  SURE  expenditure  was  phased  out,  several 
Member  States  still  prolonged  their  pandemic-related  short-time  work  schemes.  Most 
Member States were no longer using SURE in 2022 and the easing of the pandemic’s impact has 
seen  monthly  SURE  expenditure  fall  to  negligible  amounts.  At  the  same  time,  the  reduced 
expenditure in 2022 is estimated to still have supported around 220,000 people and 10,000 firms 
in three Member States. 

Almost all the public expenditure planned under SURE has now taken place.  Total public 
expenditure on SURE-eligible measures is now expected to reach EUR 119 billion in beneficiary 
Member States. This is well in excess of the total financial assistance granted (EUR 93 billion), 
since  a  few  Member  States  have  supplemented  SURE  financing  on  eligible  measures  with 
national funding, showing the relevance of the measures supported by SURE to Member States. 
Half  of  total  public  expenditure  on  SURE-eligible  measures  was  allocated  to  short-time  work 
schemes. One third was  allocated to similar  measures  for the self-employed. The remainder of 
the public expenditure was allocated to wage subsidy measures and health-related measures. The 
ancillary  nature  of  the  health-related  expenditure,  at  just  3.2%  of  total  expenditure,  has  once 
again been confirmed, while 38% of it concerned measures taken in the workplace, to ensure a 
safe resumption of business, as suggested by the SURE Regulation. 

The absorption of SURE financial assistance is high for the vast majority of Member States 
and is being addressed in two Member States where it was lower. In July 2022, the Council 
amended the Implementing Decision (CID)  for Romania to include 21 additional measures and 
reduce  the  granted  amount  to  the  amount  already  disbursed  (EUR 3 billion).  This  significantly 
reduced  the  large  absorption  gap  identified  in  the  previous  biannual  reports,  by  around  three 
quarters. In Poland, a moderate absorption gap between total expenditure and the amount granted 
has  been  confirmed.  A  technical  dialogue  with  the  Commission  to  include  additional  eligible 
measures in the CID is ongoing. The implementation of SURE financial assistance will remain 
under close monitoring in both Member States.  

An updated assessment of the impact of SURE 

The policy response to the COVID-19 crisis, including SURE, effectively prevented around 
1½ million people from becoming unemployed in 2020. The rise in unemployment in 2020 in 
beneficiary  Member  States  was  very  moderate,  despite  the  large  fall  in  economic  output,  and 
significantly lower than expected. This was achieved by retaining employees in their firms and 
maintaining  the  activity  of  the  self-employed,  which  also  prevented  a  rise  in  labour  market 
inequality  by  reducing  the  dispersion  of  unemployment  rates,  especially  across  SURE 
beneficiaries. This is in  contrast to developments that took place in the aftermath of  the  global 
financial crisis.  

2 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The  protection  of  employment  in  the  first  two  years  of  the  pandemic  also  led  to  a  more 
rapid recovery in 2021 than in previous crises.  Survey data shows that SURE supported the 
sectors most affected by the pandemic in 2021. SURE expenditure was also concentrated in the 
first half of the year, when containment measures were stricter. This suggests that SURE targeted 
the most pressing needs by supporting the worst-hit sectors.  

Member  States  are  now  estimated  to  have  saved  a  total  of  EUR  8.5  billion  in  interest 
payments  by  receiving  financial  assistance  through  SURE.  This  figure  rose  with  the  8th 
SURE transaction in March 2022.  

The continuation of the exceptional occurrences justifying SURE  

While COVID-19 temporary emergency  measures  are  expected to be increasingly  phased 
out,  a  resurgence  of  the  pandemic  in  the  EU  remains  a  risk  going  forward.  While  most 
Member  States  almost  entirely  removed  COVID-19  related  restrictions  during  2022,  a  winter 
resurgence of the virus remains a risk.   

The  remaining  financial  assistance  under  SURE  will  remain  available  until  31  December 
2022. Over EUR 6 billion in financial assistance currently remains available, until 31 December 
2022.  This  amount  is  likely  to  decrease  markedly  by  the  end  of  2022,  since  several  Member 
States expressed an interest in receiving additional financial assistance under SURE.  

3 

 
 
INTRODUCTION 

This  report  is  the  fourth  bi-annual  report  on  the  European  instrument  for  temporary 
Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE). SURE was established 
by  the  European  Union  (EU)  in  May  2020  to  help  Member  States  protect  workers’  jobs  and 
income  during  the  COVID-19  pandemic1.  It  provides  requesting  Member  States  with  Union 
financial assistance (up to EUR 100 billion) in the form of loans with favourable conditions. The 
aim of the loans is to help finance Member States’ short-time work schemes or similar measures 
aimed  at  protecting  employees  and  the  self-employed  and,  as  an  ancillary,  health-related 
measures, in particular in the workplace. 

This  bi-annual  report  is  a  legal  obligation.  It  is  adopted  by  the  European  Commission 
(hereafter the Commission) in accordance with Article 14 of Council Regulation (EU) 2020/672 
(SURE  Regulation)2  to  deliver  on  its  obligation  to  report  to  the  European  Parliament,  the 
Council, the Economic and Financial Committee (EFC) and the Employment  Committee3. The 
next  report  will  be  due  by  end-March  2023.  The  cut-off  date  for  including  information  in  this 
report was  7 June 2022 for Member States’ reporting and  28 August  2022 for epidemiological 
data4.  

This  report  presents  new  or  updated  data  confirming,  as  of  June  2022,  the  positive 
assessments of SURE presented in the previous bi-annual reports. Its key findings can be 
summarised as follows: 

-  Approximately  31½  million  people  and  2½  million  firms  are  estimated  to  have  been 

covered by SURE in 2020. 

-  9 million people and over 800,000 firms were covered by SURE in 2021 in 13 Member 
States,  with  a  clear  phasing  out  in  2022  when  220,000  people  and  10,000  firms  were 
covered in 3 Member States. 

-  National  labour  market  measures  supported  by  SURE  are  estimated  to  have  effectively 

helped prevent unemployment for around 1½ million people in 2020. 

-  This policy action also contributed to decreasing labour market inequality by reducing the 

dispersion of unemployment rates, especially across SURE beneficiaries.   

-  19 Member States have been granted financial assistance under SURE, of whom 7 have 

been granted additional top-up support5. 

1  SURE  follows  from  the  Commission’s  2019-2024  Political  Guidelines,  which  proposed  a  European 
Unemployment Benefit Reinsurance Scheme to protect European citizens and reduce the pressure on public finances 
during external shocks. Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus in Europe, it was set up on the basis of the 
Commission’s proposal of 2 April 2020. 
2 Council Regulation (EU) 2020/672 of 19 May 2020 on the establishment of a European instrument for temporary 
support  to  mitigate  unemployment  risks  in  an  emergency  (SURE)  following  the  COVID-19  outbreak,  OJ  L  159, 
20.5.2020, p. 1 (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32020R0672&from=en).   
3  Under  Article  14  of  the  Regulation,  the  Commission  shall  report  on  the  use  of  financial  assistance,  including 
outstanding amounts and the applicable repayment schedule under SURE, and on the continuation of the exceptional 
occurrences that justify the application of the SURE Regulation (the COVID-19 pandemic).  
4 All reporting tables were initially submitted by 7 June 2022 (except for Portugal, who submitted on 27 June 2022). 
In addition, some minor clarifications of data were provided after this date.  
5 A proposal by the Commission on 25 August 2022 to grant top-up support to Bulgaria is currently being examined 
by the Council. 

4 

 
 
                                                           
-  Over  EUR  93  billion  has  been  allocated  –  after  the  reduction  of  the  granted  amount  in 

one Member State - and almost EUR 92 billion has been disbursed. 

-  Half  of  the  financial  assistance  under  SURE  has  been  allocated  by  Member  States  to 
support short-time work schemes, while one third was allocated for similar measures for 
the self-employed.  

-  3.2% was allocated to health-related measures, which are ‘ancillary’ in accordance with 
the  SURE  Regulation.  Over  a  third  of  this  amount  concerned  measures  taken  in  the 
workplace. 

-  The absorption of SURE financial assistance is high for 17 of the 19 beneficiary Member 

States. 

-  Absorption  has  improved  significantly  in  one  Member  State,  following  an  amended 
Implementing Decision by the Council, and is being monitored closely in another6.  
-  Beyond the social and employment benefits, Member States are estimated to have saved 

EUR 8.5 billion in interest payments. 

-  Over EUR 6 billion is still available under SURE at least until the end of 2022, that is, the 
sunset provision applying in the absence of an extension, which would require a Council 
decision  based  on  a  proposal  by  the  Commission  on  grounds  of  continued  economic 
disturbances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

This  report  updates  the  information  contained  in  the  first  three  bi-annual  SURE  reports 
and  provides  some  additional  analysis.  It  covers  institutional  developments  since  the  third 
report’s  cut-off  date  in  early  March  2022,  including  the  disbursement  of  EUR 2.2  billion  in 
March and the amendment of the Council Implementing Decision (CID) for Romania to address 
the absorption gap there. The analysis contained in the previous reports is updated, in particular 
regarding  the  public  expenditure  by  Member  States  covered  by  SURE  –  based  on  bi-annual 
reporting  provided  by  Member  States  in  June  2022  –  and  on  the  estimated  impact  of  SURE  – 
based on the latest macroeconomic figures. It considers developments in 2022 in more detail, in 
particular with regard to the coverage of employees, the self-employed and firms.  

A more in-depth look specifically at control and audit systems, directly targeted to ensuring 
that the obligations of the Loan Agreement are respected, will be conducted in the next bi-
annual report on SURE. Member States should ensure the proper use of funds at national level, 
prevent  irregularities  and  fraud  and  recover  misused  funds,  in  accordance  with  the  SURE 
Regulation  and  bilateral  loan  agreements.  To  ensure  that  Member  States  have  the  necessary 
systems  in  place to  respect  this obligation, the Commission  conducted an ad-hoc survey on 18 
January 2022. The results were reported in the third bi-annual report. The Commission aims to 
follow up on this survey to update and complement the information already collected and report 
on it in the next – fifth – report. 

The report is structured into five sections. Section I outlines the financial assistance granted to 
Member States, including disbursed and outstanding amounts and the corresponding repayment 
schedule. Section  II summarises Member States’  total  public expenditure on national  measures 

6 Absorption is defined here as the extent to which a Member State spends the funding it was granted by the Council 
on eligible measures. Romania’s absorption gap has decreased substantially due to the addition of new measures and 
a reduction in the amount granted, while Poland’s is under close monitoring. 

5 

 
 
 
                                                           
supported  by  SURE7.  Section  III  updates  and  extends  the  assessment  of  the  impact  of  SURE 
provided in the previous reports. Section IV examines the exceptional occurrences that justify the 
continuation  of  SURE.  Finally,  Section  V  provides  the  relevant  reporting  committed  to  under 
Section 2.4 of the EU SURE Social Bond Framework, which is merged into this report8.  

I.  THE USE OF FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE UNDER SURE: AMOUNTS GRANTED AND DISBURSED 

AND OTHER FINANCIAL ASPECTS  

1.1 Overview of beneficiary Member States and amounts granted  

The total financial assistance granted under SURE now stands at EUR 93.3 billion, down 
from EUR 94.4 billion in the previous SURE report. This is due to a decision by the Council 
on 18 July 2022 to reduce the total amount granted to Romania by EUR 1.1 billion, following a 
proposal by the Commission and in agreement with the Romanian authorities9. There has been 
no new financial assistance granted since the previous report in March 2022. At the same time, 
several  Member  States  expressed  interest  in  receiving  additional  financial  assistance  under 
SURE by the end of the year10.   

7  Sections  I  and  II  pertain  to  the  use  of  financial  assistance  under  SURE  as  per  Article  14(1)  of  the  SURE 
Regulation. 
8 https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/eu-borrower/eu-borrowing-activities/eu-sure-social-bond-
framework_en  
9  Council  Implementing  Decision  (EU)  2022/1262  of  18  July  2022  amending  Implementing  Decision  (EU) 
2020/1355 granting temporary support under Regulation (EU) 2020/672 to Romania to mitigate unemployment risks 
in the emergency following the COVID-19 outbreak, OJ L 191, 20.7.2022, p. 72. 
10  The  Commission  proposed  granting  top-up  financial  assistance  of  EUR  460  million  to  Bulgaria  on  25  August 
2022, yet to be agreed by the Council. Some Member States (Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Lithuania and Portugal) had 
officially requested a top-up under SURE as of 12 September 2022, while a few others have informally expressed 
interest in further SURE support. Most requests are based on expenditure that has already occurred.  

6 

 
 
 
 
                                                           
Table 1: Overview of support granted under SURE (EUR) 

Member State 

Total Amount 
Granted* 

Of Which Top-Up 

Amount 
Disbursed* 

Amount Outstanding 

Belgium 
Bulgaria 
Cyprus 
Czechia 
Greece 
Spain 
Croatia 
Italy 
Lithuania 
Latvia 
Malta 
Poland 
Portugal 
Romania 
Slovenia 
Slovakia 
Hungary 
Ireland 
Estonia 
Total 

8 197 530 000 
511 000 00011 
603 770 000 
2 000 000 000 
5 265 000 000 
21 324 820 449 
1 020 600 000 
27 438 486 464 
957 260 000 
305 200 000 
420 817 000 
11 236 693 087 
5 934 462 488 
3 000 000 000 
1 113 670 000 
630 883 600 
651 470 000 
2 473 887 900 
230 000 000 
93 315 550 988 

394 150 000 
0 
124 700 000 
0 
2 537 000 000 
0 
0 
0 
354 950 000 
112 500 000 
177 185 000 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
147 140 000 
0 
0 
3 847 625 000 

8 197 000 000 
511 000 000 
603 000 000 
2 000 000 000 
5 265 000 000 
21 324 000 000 
1 020 000 000 
27 438 000 000 
957 000 000 
305 000 000 
420 000 000 
9 736 000 000 
5 934 000 000 
3 000 000 000 
1 113 000 000 
630 000 000 
651 000 000 
2 473 000 000 
230 000 000 
91 807 000 000 

0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
1 500 000 000 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
1 500 000 000 

*In the implementation of the disbursements, the amounts granted were rounded down for operational purposes. 

1.2 Disbursements, outstanding amount and applicable repayment schedule  

The  Commission  successfully  issued  a  further  EUR  2.2  billion  of  SURE  social  bonds  on 
behalf of the EU on 22 March 2022. Despite an ever more challenging market environment due 
to the war in Ukraine, investor interest remained strong. The 15-year bond had an order book of 
EUR 35 billion, making it 16 times oversubscribed, illustrating investor confidence in the EU’s 
financing  capacity  and  in  the  SURE  programme.  The  EUR 2.2  billion  was  disbursed  on             
29 March 2022: EUR 1.5 billion to Poland, EUR 523 million to Portugal and EUR 147 million to 
Hungary. 

By August 2022, almost EUR 92 billion of SURE financial assistance had been disbursed to 
19 Member States (Table 1). This represents 98% of the total SURE financial assistance granted 
by the Council. A disbursement of the remaining EUR 1.5 billion financial assistance granted to 
Poland  has  been  postponed  until  the  issue  regarding  the  absorption  of  funds  is  resolved  (see 
Section 2.1.2). Further details on the SURE transactions and disbursements to Member States are 
reported in Tables A1 and A2 in the Annex. 

The  average  maturity  of  disbursements  to  Member  States  remains  at  14.5  years.  This  is 
close to the maximum of 15 years provided by the respective CIDs. Reporting on the repayment 
schedule for principal and interest payments is presented in Table 2. 

11 If the Council grants the additional financial assistance proposed by the Commission (see footnote 5), the amount 
granted to Bulgaria would rise to EUR 971 million. 

7 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Principal 

8 000 000 000 
8 000 000 000 

10 000 000 000 
8 137 000 000 
10 000 000 000 

Table 2: Repayment Schedule of EU’s SURE outstanding loans 
SURE Total 
35 480 000 
111 110 000 
151 404 400 
146 912 500 
8 146 912 500 
8 146 912 500 
146 912 500 
10 146 912 500 
8 283 912 500 
10 122 500 000 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
8 646 912 500 
9 146 912 500 
2 298 912 500 
104 500 000 
104 500 000 
7 104 500 000 
97 500 000 
97 500 000 
97 500 000 
97 500 000 
97 500 000 
5 097 500 000 
6 075 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
10 030 000 000 
95 182 856 900 

Calendar year 
2021 
2022 
2023 
2024 
2025 
2026 
2027 
2028 
2029 
2030 
2031 
2032 
2033 
2034 
2035 
2036 
2037 
2038 
2039 
2040 
2041 
2042 
2043 
2044 
2045 
2046 
2047 
2048 
2049 
2050 
Total 

Interest 
35 480 000 
111 110 000 
151 404 400 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
146 912 500 
128 912 500 
104 500 000 
104 500 000 
104 500 000 
97 500 000 
97 500 000 
97 500 000 
97 500 000 
97 500 000 
97 500 000 
75 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
3 400 269 400 

8 500 000 000 
9 000 000 000 
2 170 000 000 

10 000 000 000 
91 807 000 000 

5 000 000 000 
6 000 000 000 

7 000 000 000 

II.  THE USE OF THE SURE INSTRUMENT: PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND NATIONAL MEASURES 

COVERED BY SURE 

This  section  focuses  on  the  policy  use  of  the  instrument.  More  specifically,  it  summarises  the 
public  expenditure  by  Member  States  covered  by  or  eligible  for  SURE  and  the  nature  of  the 
national measures supported. It also presents the number of employees and firms that benefitted 
from the measures supported by SURE. 

2.1 Actual and planned public expenditure supported by SURE 

2.1.1 Monitoring of public expenditure on eligible measures 

Bi-annual  reporting  by  beneficiary  Member  States  is  used  to  monitor  the  planned  and 
actual use of the financial assistance granted under SURE.  The required reporting includes 
public expenditure for measures covered by SURE (and the employee and firm coverage of those 
measures, as reported in  Section  2.3). There have been  five series of this reporting thus  far: in 
August  2020  (“initial  reporting”),  in  January-February  2021  (“first  report”),  in  June  2021 
(“second  report”),  January  2022  (“third  report”)  and  June  2022  (“latest  reporting”).  The 
information is presented as reported by Member States on measures that are eligible for SURE. 
Some Member States have spent more than the amount of SURE financial assistance received, 
and/or have supplemented SURE support with national financing or EU structural funds, so that 

8 

 
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
total  expenditure  can  exceed  the  amount  supported  by  SURE.  The  reporting  allows  for 
measuring  the  absorption  of  the  financial  assistance  under  SURE,  by  comparing  it  with  the 
amount granted by the Council12.  

Almost all the total planned public expenditure under SURE has now been executed. The 
SURE  Regulation  allows  for  financial  assistance  to  be  used  for  both  incurred  and  planned 
increases  in  public  expenditure  on  measures  covered  by  SURE13.  The  share  of  planned 
expenditure decreased from 54% in June 2020 to 10% in June 2021 and just 2% by the end of 
2021  (Graph  2).  The  share  of  incurred  spending  on  SURE  eligible  measures  reached  99%  by 
May 2022 14. 

Graph 1: Reported public expenditure 

Graph 2: Monthly evolution of incurred and 
planned public expenditure under SURE 

      Source: Member States’ reporting (June 2022). 

Source: Member States’ reporting (June 2022). 
Note:  Estonia  applied  for  SURE  support  in  February 
2021 and, as such, is included from June 2021 onwards. 
S1  corresponds  to  the  first  semester  (January  until 
June). S2 corresponds to the second semester (July until 
December). 

Total  public  expenditure  on  SURE-eligible  measures  is  expected  to  be  around  EUR  119 
billion,  in  excess  of  the  total  financial  assistance  granted  under  SURE.  This  amount  is 

12  An  absorption  gap  occurs  because  the  expenditure  incurred  or planned  by  the  Member  State  on  SURE-eligible 
measures is less than the amount granted by the Council. Part of the absorption can be due to the Member State not 
managing  to  spend  the  amount  already  disbursed,  which  may  become  problematic  if  this  gap  remains  when  the 
planned expenditure has been implemented.   
13  Ireland  and  Estonia  applied  for  SURE  for  incurred  public  expenditure  only.  As  such,  the  reporting  remains 
unchanged since March 2021. The reporting on public expenditures for 2020 and 2021 also remained unchanged for 
Cyprus and Slovenia since the previous report.  
14  Eligible  measures  are  those  described  in  Article  3(2)  of  the  Regulation:  national  short-time  work  schemes  or 
similar  measures,  and  as  an  ancillary,  health-related  measures.  Some  Member  States  (Estonia,  Slovenia)  have 
discontinued reporting on  SURE-eligible  measures as they are no longer using SURE  financial assistance to  fund 
those  measures,  having  already  exceeded  the  amount  granted.  As  such,  the  total  expenditure  on  SURE-eligible 
measures is higher than reported here.  

9 

464545434444343434344182929293710911349899116119119020406080100120140InitialreportingFeb2021June2021Jan2022June2022EUR BnFeb-Jun 2020Jul-Dec 2020S1 2021S2 20212022 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
similar to the one expected in the third report (Graph 1). Expenditures on the fewer schemes that 
have continued in  2022  rose slightly  from  a planned EUR 2.8 billion to EUR 3.7 billion, while 
there  were  some  downward  revisions  in  past  expenditures.  13  Member  States  now  report 
expenditure  in  2022,  compared  to  10  in  the  previous  reporting.  The  total  spending  (EUR  119 
billion) is greater than the total amount granted under SURE (EUR 93.3 billion) because a few 
Member  States  plan  to  spend  more  on  eligible  measures  than  the  financial  assistance  they 
requested and were granted15. This highlights the continued relevance of the scope of SURE to 
Member States.  

The  easing  of  the  pandemic’s  impact  in  2022  has  seen  monthly  expenditure  on  SURE-
eligible measures fall to negligible amounts. Graph 2 shows that 2022 expenditure peaked (at a 
low  level)  in  January  before  decreasing  rapidly.  The  early  2022  expenditure  was  focused  on 
measures such as quarantine-related measures, COVID-19 testing and special compensation for 
healthcare workers. In December 2022, just EUR 38 million is planned to be spent.  

 2.1.2 Absorption of funds  

The  degree  of  absorption  of  SURE  financial  assistance  is  high  for  the  vast  majority  of 
Member  States.  With  almost  all  public  expenditure  now  having  been  executed,  no  new 
absorption  issues  have  arisen  since  the  publication  of  the  third  bi-annual  report.  17  out  of  19 
Member  States  have  already  spent  at  least  the  total  financial  assistance  they  were  granted  on 
eligible measures (Graph 3). Moreover, 15 Member States have spent or plan to spend more than 
the amount granted, including by financing the remainder nationally.  

Graph 3: Excess of planned and incurred public expenditure on eligible measures over loan 
amount (% of loan amount)  

Source: Member States’ reporting  
Note:  Public  expenditure  refers  to  measures  reported  as  covered  in  the  CIDs,  net  of  European  Structural  and 
Investment Funds (ESIF). Some Member States (Estonia, Slovenia) have discontinued reporting on SURE-eligible 
measures as they are no longer using SURE financial  assistance to fund those  measures, having already exceeded 
the amount granted. For Romania, the figure comes from the Commission’s assessment, based on past experience 
and applying the capping of health-related spending to 49% of total eligible expenditures (so that it remains ancillary 
as provided for by the SURE regulation). 

15  For  Spain  and  Italy,  this  is  also  due  to  the  concentration  limit  (of  60%  of  the  maximum  amount  of  EUR  100 
billion) that applies to the three largest beneficiary Member States. 

10 

 
 
 
                                                           
In  Poland,  while  all  the  amount  disbursed  was  spent,  a  moderate  gap  between  total 
expenditure  and  the  amount  granted  has  been  confirmed.  The  total  public  expenditure 
reported  by  Poland  (EUR  9.9  billion)  exceeded  the  amount  disbursed  (EUR  9.7  billion). 
However,  as  indicated  in  the  third  report,  Poland  reported  lower  total  public  expenditure  on 
measures covered in their CID than the amount granted by the Council (EUR 11.2 billion). This 
gap emerged following data revisions for some measures and can be attributed to the stronger-
than-expected rebound of the economy. To close this gap, the national authorities have proposed 
the  inclusion  of  two  additional  measures  (that  are  eligible  to  SURE),  primarily  for  past 
expenditure  up  to  2021.  A  technical  dialogue  with  the  Commission  is  ongoing  and  the 
disbursement  of  the  remaining  funds  (EUR  1.5  billion)  was  agreed  to  be  postponed  until  the 
dialogue is concluded.  

In  Romania,  the  sizeable  absorption  gap  with  the  amount  granted  has  been  reduced 
significantly  with  the  inclusion  of  new  SURE-eligible  measures  and  the  lowering  of  the 
amount  granted.  In  early  2021,  an  absorption  gap  of  almost  three  quarters  of  the  amount 
granted (EUR 2.9 billion still to be spent out of EUR 4.1 billion granted) was identified due to a 
weaker than expected impact of the pandemic on the Romanian economy in 2020 and a stronger 
than expected recovery in 2021. The gap (EUR 1.8 billion) was also sizeable with respect to the 
amount already disbursed. As a result of a technical dialogue between the Commission and the 
Romanian  authorities,  the  Council  amended  Romania’s  original  CID,  based  on  a  Commission 
proposal, to include additional measures eligible under SURE. Moreover, the financial assistance 
granted to Romania was reduced to EUR 3 billion, as agreed with the Romanian authorities, so 
that the remaining undisbursed amount of EUR 1.1 billion is forgone and rendered available for 
possible further needs by EU Member States. 

The  amended  Council  Implementing  Decision  on  Romania  includes  21  additional  eligible 
measures, which have already been implemented. Two of the measures are similar to short-
time work schemes, as they pursue the objective of preserving employment and incomes: a sick 
leave benefit and support for employees for home office equipment16. The other 19 measures are 
health  related,  including  for  example  a  bonus  for  healthcare  workers,  protective  gear,  and 
medicines  and  vaccines  to  fight  the  COVID-19  pandemic.  As  health-related  measures  are 
ancillary under the SURE Regulation, the amount of eligible health-related expenditure is capped 
at 49% of total expenditure. 

The  Commission  will  continue  to  closely  monitor  the  absorption  level  in  Romania  and 
further measures might be needed. The absorption gap decreased and is currently estimated at 
around EUR 350 million17.  However, it is yet unclear if this gap would eventually persist, as it 

16  Following  a  request  from  Romania,  the  Commission  and  the  Council  have  decided  to  henceforth  consider 
COVID-19  related  sickness  benefits  as  a  measure  similar  to  short-time  work  schemes,  instead  of  a  health-related 
measure  (subject  to  capping,  since  health  measures  are  ancillary).  Indeed,  while  the  trigger  to  benefit  from  the 
measure  is  health-related  (i.e.  the  ‘sickness’  of  an  employee),  the  actual  impact  and  purpose  of  the  measure  is 
similar to that of short-time work schemes: it provides income support to employees unable to work, preserving their 
employment relationship with the firm, and is directly related to COVID-19, in line with the purpose of the SURE 
regulation.  
17 If past experience would apply to these future measures,  only one third of planned expenditure (for 2022) could 
materialise. This prudent assumption was agreed with the Romanian authorities and is reflected in the expenditure 
shown in this report.  

11 

 
 
                                                           
depends  on  the  evolution  of  planned  expenditure  in  2022,  itself  dependent  on  future 
developments  in  the  COVID-19  pandemic.  If  this  is  the  case,  further  eligible  labour  market 
measures could be included in an amending CID, or a repayment of the remaining gap could be 
examined. 

2.2 National measures: short-time work schemes or similar measures supported by SURE  

The  vast  majority  of  total  public  expenditure  on  SURE-eligible  measures  has  been 
allocated to short-time work schemes and ‘similar measures’ for the self-employed. Indeed, 
50% of total public expenditure on SURE-eligible measures has been directed to short-time work 
schemes, which are funded by 17 of the 19 Member States benefiting from SURE. A further 32% 
has  been  allocated  to  ‘similar  measures’  for  the  self-employed18.  9%  was  allocated  to  wage 
subsidy  schemes,  while  6%  of  total  expenditure  is  allocated  to  ‘other’  similar  measures 
supporting  job  retention  and  workers’  incomes,  including  sick-leave  benefits19.  12  Member 
States only used SURE financial assistance for labour market measures (Graph 4).  

The  ancillary  nature  of  the  health-related  expenditure  is  confirmed.  Only  3.2%  of  total 
expenditure was spent or planned to be spent on health-related measures. Only 7 Member States 
out of 19 used SURE support to finance health-related measures. The SURE Regulation allows 
for  the  financing  of  any  COVID-19  related  health  measure,  but  highlights  in  particular  those 
taken in the workplace, which represents 38% of all health-related spending (Graph 5)20.  

Graph 4: Public expenditure on SURE-
eligible measures by type of expenditure 

Graph 5: Share of health-related 
expenditure in the workplace 

Source: Member States’ reporting (June 2022) 
Note:  See  March  2021  report  for  details  on  Hungary’s 
health expenditure, and section 2.1.2 on Romania. 

  Source: Member States’ reporting (June 2022) 

18 This is based on Commission analysis, categorising the measures reported by Member States by type. 
19 Wage subsidy schemes are job-retention schemes similar to short-time work, but differ in that payments are not 
calculated in terms of hours (not worked), but rather correspond to a lump sum or a proportion of the total wage. In 
total measures similar to short-time work schemes account for 46% of total SURE-eligible expenditure.  
20 See Article 1 of Council Regulation (EU) 2020/672 of 19 May 2020. This condition is also further explained in 
recital  5:  “In  order  to  maintain  the  strong  focus  of  the  instrument  provided  for  in  this  Regulation  and  thereby  its 
effectiveness,  health-related  measures  for  the  purpose  of  that  instrument  may  consist  of  those  aiming  at  reducing 
occupational hazards and ensuring the protection of workers and the self‐employed in the workplace, and, where 
appropriate, some other health‐related measures.” 

12 

0102030405060708090100LatviaItalyBelgiumEstoniaPortugalSURE-19HungaryRomania% ototal health expenditureHealth outside the workplaceHealth in the workplace 
 
 
 
                                                           
2.3. SURE coverage in terms of employment and firms 

In  2020,  SURE  is  estimated  to  have  supported  31½  million  people  and  2½  million  firms. 
This  represents  almost  one  third  of  total  employment  and  firms  in  the  19  beneficiary  Member 
States21.  The  employment  estimate  is  comprised  of  approximately  22¼  million  employees  and 
9¼ million self-employed workers. Graphs 6 and 7 present a breakdown of SURE coverage by 
Member State. These estimates do not include people supported only by health-related measures 
under SURE and could therefore be considered conservative22.  

Graph 6: Workers covered by SURE in 2020 
(% of total employment) 

Graph 7: Firms covered by SURE in 2020 
by size (% of total firms) 

Source: Member States’ reporting (June 2022) 
Note:  The  coverage  and  total  employment  figures  are 
those reported by Member States. For this report, Member 
States  also  provided  data  for  both  self-employed  and 
employees  in  the  total  economy  allowing  to  compute  the 
total employment figure (the denominator) more precisely. 
This  led  to  some  discrepancies  compared  with  the  data 
shown in the previous report. 

Source: Member States’ reporting (June 2022) 
Note:  Total  firms  excludes  zero-employee  firms.    
Poland  did  not  report  on  firm  size.  SMEs  are  those 
with  less  than  250  employees  and  large  those  with 
over 250 employees.  

SMEs have been the primary beneficiaries of SURE support (Graph 7). The pandemic caused 
a  shift  from  the  use  of  short-time  work  schemes  by  primarily  large  firms  pre-Covid  to  also 
include  small  and  medium-sized  firms  which  represent  most  of  the  firms  covered  by  SURE 

21  The  coverage  figures  have  changed  from  the  previous  reports  as  Member  States  have  updated  their  reporting 
tables,  improving  the  data  quality  in  some  cases.  The  figures  correspond  to  people  and  firms  who  were,  at  some 
point, covered by short-time work schemes or similar measures supported by SURE. The denominators are based on 
the reporting tables submitted by Member States, compared to previous reports where Eurostat data was used. The 
total number of firms comprises firms with at least one employee.  
22  In  addition,  in  some  Member  States,  there  was  significant  overlap  between  the  recipients  of  support  across 
different measures, for which appropriate adjustment could not be made. In such cases, Member States were asked 
to report only the coverage of the largest measure(s) to avoid  double counting. As such, the true coverage may be 
even higher.  

13 

0102030405060708090SloveniaItalyGreeceBelgiumMaltaIrelandSpainSURE-19CroatiaSlovakiaPortugalLithuaniaCyprusRomaniaCzechiaEstoniaPoland*LatviaBulgariaHungary% total firmsSMEslarge firmsunknown size 
 
                                                           
 
 
 
 
 
(Graph 8)23,24. Short-time work schemes were mostly taken up by the services and retail sectors. 
Manufacturing nevertheless still received around a fifth of SURE expenditure. The sectors with 
the  largest  share  of  expenditure  according  to  the  latest  reporting  were:  (i)  accommodation  and 
food services, (ii) wholesale and retail trade, and (iii) manufacturing (Graph 9). Many Member 
States also provided support to further sectors, such as the cultural sector, with targeted measures 
in their respective CIDs. 

Graph 8: SMEs covered by SURE in 2020 
(% of total SMEs) 

Graph 9: Sectoral coverage of SURE 

Source: Member States’ reporting (June 2022) 
Note:  Poland  did  not  report  on  firm  size,  while 
Belgium and Czechia did not provide data on the total 
number  of  SMEs.  SMEs  are  those  with  less  than  250 
employees.  

three  sectors 

Source: Member States’ reporting (June 2022) 
Note:  Member  States  report  the 
that 
benefitted  the  most  from  SURE,  as  well  as  the  shares  of 
expenditure going to those sectors. This graph reports the 
average  share  of  expenditure  across  Member  States  in 
each sector. When a sector is not mentioned, we assume it 
gets a share of the residual spending that is proportional to 
the sector’s total wage bill in the economy. Four Member 
States do not report the shares of expenditure going to the 
top  three  sectors:  we  assume  that  the  largest  sector  gets 
50%,  the  second  largest  gets  25%  and  the  third  largest 
15% of total expenditure. These figures correspond to the 
averages  in  Member  States  that  reported  the  shares  of 
expenditure. 

In  2021,  particularly  in  the  first  half  of  the  year  when  the  pandemic  continued  to  wreak 
havoc, SURE supported an estimated 9 million people and over 800,000 firms. This includes 
almost  5¾  million  employees  and  3¼  million  self-employed,  corresponding  to  almost  17%  of 
total  employment  and  of  firms  in  the  13  beneficiary  Member  States  who  continued  to  use  the 
instrument  in  2021  (Graphs  10  and  11)25.  The  uneven  recovery  in  2021  meant  that  economic 

23 European Commission (2020): Labour Market and Wage Developments in 2020, Chapter 3, Policy developments. 
https://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=23268&langId=en.  Further  discussion  is  available  in  the  second 
SURE report.  
24 While SMEs represent the majority of firms, 30% of them were covered by SURE-eligible measures in 2020. 
25 Member States that spent all of their SURE financial assistance in 2020 are not included here: Czechia, Estonia, 
Spain,  Ireland,  Croatia  and  Slovenia.  However,  many  of  these  Member  States  continued  or  adapted  their  relevant 
measures and financed them through other sources. This estimate  has risen significantly as Italy has now reported 
2021 coverage figures for the first time. 

14 

0102030405060708090SloveniaItalyGreeceMaltaIrelandSpainSURE-19CroatiaSlovakiaPortugalLithuaniaCyprusRomaniaEstoniaLatviaBulgariaHungaryI. Accommodation And Food Service ActivitiesOther SectorsG. Wholesale And Retail Trade; Repair Of Motor Vehicles And …C.ManufacturingF. ConstructionM. Professional, Scientific And …N. Administrative And Support Service ActivitiesR. Other Service ActivitiesS. Arts, Entertainment And Recreation 
 
 
 
                                                           
support measures were still required at various stages throughout the year. As seen in Graph 1, 
these were focused in the first half of 2021 and eased as both the economic and health impact of 
the pandemic lessened later in the year due to vaccinations and other economic adaptations.  

Graph 10: Workers covered by SURE in 2021 
and 2022 (% of total employment) 

Graph 11: Firms covered by SURE in 
2021 and 2022 (% of total firms) 

Source: Member States’ reporting 
Note:  Member  States  who  spent  the  SURE  financial 
assistance  by  the  end  of  2020  are  not  shown.  Member 
States who spent the SURE assistance by the end of 2021 
are  not  included  in  2022.  Not  applicable  (n/a)  refers  to 
Member  States  that  did  not  report  coverage  for  2021  or 
2022. 

Source: Member States’ reporting 
Note: Total firms excludes zero-employee firms.  Not 
applicable (n/a) refers to Member States that did not 
report coverage for 2021 or 2022. 

Although  most  SURE  expenditure  has  now  been  phased  out,  several  Member  States 
prolonged  their  pandemic-related  short-time  work  schemes  in  the  first  half  of  2022.  In 
Bulgaria,  wage  subsidies  for  workers  were  covered  for  the  period  up  to  June  2022.  Belgium 
extended the ‘simplified procedure’ of its short-time work scheme in relation to the COVID-19 
pandemic until June 2022. The Maltese wage subsidy scheme and Greek short-time work scheme 
were  extended  until  May  2022,  while  Romania  extended  its  short-time  work  scheme  until  the 
end  of  the  year.  In  Croatia,  Italy  and  Portugal,  measures  to  preserve  jobs  related  to  the      
COVID-19  pandemic  were  financed  throughout  the  first  quarter  of  2022.  The  Spanish 
emergency rules for the short-time work scheme ERTE were gradually phased out – parts of the 
benefits and social security rebates were extended until 31 March 2022.26 

In 2022, SURE is estimated to have supported around 220,000 people and 10,000 firms, in 
line  with  the  decrease  in  SURE-related  expenditure.  This  is  comprised  of  approximately 
80,000 employees and 140,000 self-employed (Graph 10). The majority of Member States were 

26  The  prolongation  of  pandemic-related  short-time  work  schemes  does  not  necessarily  imply  that  these  Member 
States  are  using  the  SURE  instrument  to  finance  it.  Some  have  prolonged  the  schemes  by  using  other  financing 
sources  (e.g.  EU  structural  funds  and  national  financing).  For  instance,  in  Spain,  a  new  reform  of  the  permanent 
scheme,  which  was  of  general  nature,  based  on  the  lessons  learned  during  the  COVID-19  pandemic,  entered  into 
force on 1 April.  

15 

01020304050607080MaltaItalyLithuaniaCyprusGreeceSURE-13PortugalSlovakiaBelgiumLatviaHungaryBulgariaRomaniaPolandPortugalSURE-3RomaniaPoland20212022% total employmentSelf-employedEmployeesEmployees + self-employed (2020)n/an/a0102030405060MaltaGreeceLithuaniaItalyBelgiumPortugalSURE-13SlovakiaLatviaCyprusRomaniaBulgariaHungaryPolandPortugalSURE-3RomaniaPoland20212022% total firms2021-20222020n/an/a 
 
                                                           
 
no longer using SURE in 2022, however. Only 3 Member States used SURE to fund measures in 
2022, with a further 14 Member States funding SURE-eligible measures through other sources. 

III.  PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF SURE 

This section updates and extends the analysis presented in the previous bi-annual reports on the 
impact of SURE on unemployment, the real economy and its direct financial effect.  

3.1. Estimating the impact of SURE on unemployment 

This  section  provides  an  updated  assessment  of  SURE’s  impact  on  unemployment  in 
beneficiary  Member  States.  The  purpose  of  SURE  is  to  help  Member  States  preserve 
employment  of  workers  and  the  self-employed  during  the  COVID-19  pandemic,  thus  also 
protecting  labour  incomes.  The  results  are  informative  but  should  be  interpreted  with  caution 
because of methodological reasons 27 .  

The rise in unemployment in 2020 in beneficiary Member States was significantly less than 
expected, preventing an estimated 1½ million people from becoming unemployed. The swift 
and  sizeable  policy  measures  taken  in  2020  to  address  the  COVID-19  crisis,  including  SURE, 
mitigated  the  impact  of  the  fall  in  output  on  unemployment,  resulting  in  an  increase  in 
unemployment that was, in most countries, lower than expected28. The widespread use of short-
time  work  schemes  and  other  similar  measures  partially  explain  the  muted  increase  in 
unemployment  compared  to  the  fall  in  output  and  allowed  an  estimated  1½  million  people  to 
retain  their  jobs  in  2020  in  SURE  beneficiary  Member  States.  At  country  level,  the  higher  the 
amount  received  through  SURE  in  2020,  the  more  moderate  was  the  rise  in  unemployment 
among beneficiary Member States. At the same time, some non-beneficiary Member States were 
able  to  use  their  favourable  financial  position  and  funding  conditions  to  run  large  short-time 
work schemes (Graph 13).  

27  First, it is difficult to design a ‘counterfactual’ scenario of labour market performance in the absence of SURE. 
Second, the output-employment relationship is impacted by a wide range of factors, including SURE. Other factors 
are related to the fact that people have been unable to, or were discouraged from, actively seeking employment due 
to the shutdown of large parts of the economy. 
28 The responsiveness of changes in economic growth to unemployment is often referred in the economic literature 
as “Okun’s Law”. For further details see European Commission (2021), Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, Section 
III, Vol. 20, No 2. Croatia is not included for data availability reasons.  

16 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Graph 12: Estimated jobs saved per Member 
State in 2020 (thousands) 

Graph 13: Relationship between the change 
in the unemployment rate and disbursed 
SURE funding in 2020 

Source: Ameco and own calculations.  
Note:  y-axis:  The  expected  change  in  unemployment 
rates stems  from the country-specific regression  model 
explained in the note to Graph 12.  

Source: Ameco and own calculations. 
Note:  The  estimate  of  jobs  saved  is  derived  from  the 
difference  between  the  actual  and  expected  change  in  the 
unemployment rate in Member States, multiplied by the 2020 
labour  force.  It  assumes  that  the  actual  and  expected  labour 
force is the same. For some countries, the estimate is zero, as 
the actual change in  the  unemployment rate  was  higher than 
predicted  by 
in 
unemployment  rates  corresponds  to  the  prediction  stemming 
from a country-specific regression model for the period 1999 
to  2019.  The  analysis  is  based  on  an  Okun’s  law  approach, 
where  the  dependent  variable  stands  for  the  change  in 
unemployment rate and the independent variable refers to the 
real GDP growth rate. The calculation was based on AMECO 
data autumn 2021 vintage.   

the  model.  The  expected  change 

SURE  also  contributed  to  preventing  a  rise  in  labour  market  inequality  across  Member 
States. SURE appears to have prevented a strong rise in unemployment in the countries who had 
suffered more labour market scarring during the global financial crisis. First, the increase in the 
average unemployment rate in SURE beneficiaries tracked very closely that in non beneficiaries 
following the COVID-19 crisis. This is in contrast to the aftermath of the global financial crisis 
when  average  unemployment  among  SURE  beneficiaries  increased  substantially  compared  to 
non-beneficiaries  (Graph  14).  Second,  the  dispersion  of  unemployment  rates  across  SURE 
beneficiaries  decreased  markedly  since  the  COVID-19  pandemic,  converging  gradually  to  the 
lower  dispersion  experienced  by  the  non-SURE  beneficiaries  (Graph  15).  This  reduction  in 
unemployment inequality is the opposite image of what was experienced in the global financial 
crisis. This result also suggests that SURE beneficiaries were those Member States whose labour 
markets needed the instrument the most. 

17 

 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800SpainItalyPolandGreecePortugalBulgariaCzechiaBelgiumHungarySlovakiaCyprusSloveniaLatviaEstoniaLithuaniaRomaniaMaltaIrelandMTELPTCYSIPLLTESROBEITLVCZBGSKIEHUFRNLDKATDESEFILUEE-5-4-3-2-1010.00.51.01.5Actual minus expected change in unemployment 2020Disbursed SURE funding 2020 (% of GDP)R2=0.3 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
14:  Evolution 

Graph 
average 
unemployment  rate  between  SURE  and  non-
SURE Member States 

the 

of 

Graph  15:  Historical  dispersion  of 
unemployment  rates  in  SURE  and  non-
SURE Member States 

Source: Ameco. 
Note: “SURE-19” refers to the 19 EU Member States that were 
granted  SURE  support.  “Non-SURE”  refers  to  the  remaining  8 
EU Member States. 

 Source: Ameco.  
Note: Dispersion refers to the standard deviation of the 
unemployment 
rate  of  SURE  and  non-SURE 
beneficiary  Member  States,  which  is  calculated  for 
each year. 

The channels explaining how SURE facilitated a milder rise in unemployment in 2020 are 
discussed in detail in the first bi-annual report. These include improving general confidence 
across the EU, supporting and encouraging of the use of short-time work schemes, and enabling 
Member States to spend more on employment support and other pandemic-related policies. Data 
from  the  ad-hoc  survey  shown  in  the  first  report  indicated  that  SURE  played  a  role  in  the 
decision of a majority of beneficiary Member States to adopt a new short-time work scheme or to 
modify an existing scheme, and enabled some Member States to be more ambitious on measures 
similar  to  short-time  work  schemes.  SURE  also  contributed  to  Member  States  increasing  the 
generosity  or  length  of  their  employment-retention  schemes,  since  it  underpinned  Member 
States’ confidence to undertake larger borrowing and spending than they otherwise would have, 
enjoying  the  interest  rate  savings  obtained  by  the  EU  despite  their  lower  credit  rating.  The 
confidence effect is further illustrated by the results of the December 2021 Eurobarometer survey 
presented in the third report, which showed that 82% of euro area citizens thought that the SURE 
loans were a good idea.  

3.2. Estimating the impact of SURE on the real economy 

The  protection  of  employment  in  the  first  two  years  of  the  pandemic  supported  a  more 
rapid  recovery  in  2021  than  in  previous  crises.  Firstly,  GDP  and  unemployment  recovered 
closer  to  their  pre-crisis  levels  in  SURE  beneficiary  Member  States  in  2021  compared  to  the 
global  financial  crisis  and  euro  area  debt  crisis  after  the  same  period  of  time  (Graph  16).  This 
occurred  despite  the  subsequent  waves  of  the  pandemic  that  necessitated  the  reintroduction  of 

18 

 
 
 
 
restrictions during the year29. Secondly, based on the summer 2022 Commission interim forecast, 
economic  growth  will  continue  in  2022  and  2023  albeit  at  a  more  subdued  rate  than  projected 
last spring due to COVID-19 independent events, namely the energy crisis and Russian invasion 
of Ukraine. Even so, it is still outperforming the recovery seen at the same stage after the global 
financial  crisis  and  the  euro  area  debt  crisis,  as  the  EU  economy  returned  to  its  pre-pandemic 
output level in 2021, while it remained well below its pre-crisis level at the same stage in the two 
previous  crises30.  This  suggests  that  keeping  the  available  workforce  connected  with  firms  via 
short-time  work  schemes  and  similar  measures  helped  support  the  swift  recovery,  despite  the 
challenging epidemiological situation in 202131. 

Graph 16: Historical comparison of the recovery in GDP and unemployment after a crisis 

Source: Ameco (using Commission Spring 2022 forecast for unemployment rate and Summer 2022 interim forecast 
for GDP), Eurostat  
Note: Aggregate GDP and average unemployment rate for SURE beneficiary Member States shown. Time period t-
1 refers to the year prior to the respective crises. t=2009 for global financial crisis (GFC); t=2012 for euro area (EA) 
debt crisis; t=2020 for the Covid crisis. t+2 for the Covid crisis refers to 2022. 

Survey data shows that SURE supported the activity of the economic sectors most affected 
by  the  pandemic  in  2021.  The  EU  Business  and  Consumer  Survey  showed  that  the  services 
sectors most affected by COVID-19 in SURE beneficiary Member States (accommodation, food 
and beverage, travel  agencies, sports activities and other personal  services) continued to  suffer 
from weak demand and confidence in the first half of 2021 in particular (Graph 17). In contrast, 
manufacturing was less affected by the restrictions in early 2021 and performed better. As shown 
in  Graph  17,  the  sectors  accounting  for  the  largest  share  of  SURE  expenditure  were 

29 It should be noted nevertheless that the nature of the global financial crisis, specifically, the abrupt deleveraging 
that it forced in the private sector, created particularly heavy consequences for activity and employment, irrespective 
of the employment support measures that could have been adopted. 
30 The recovery has however been uneven. Employment in contact-intensive sectors has accounted for most of the 
growth,  while employment in manufacturing has stagnated.  Moreover, employment levels for low-skilled  workers 
continue to lag. 
31  For  further  details  see  European  Commission  (2022),  Quarterly  Report  on  the  Euro  Area,  Section  III,  Vol.  21, 
No.2. The article shows that SURE did not impair labour mobility, which is relevant for an efficient reallocation of 
resources following the pandemic outbreak and its structural effects on the EU economy.  

19 

 
 
 
                                                           
accommodation  and  food  services  and  wholesale  and  retail  trade,  suggesting  that  SURE  has 
addressed the most pressing needs by supporting the worst-hit sectors32.  

 Graph 17: Services sectoral demand and SURE expenditure 

Source: EU Business and Consumer Survey Programme July 2022; Member States’ reporting (June 2022) 
Note: For services,  average index shown for accommodation, food and beverage, travel agencies, sports activities 
and other personal services.  

3.3. The direct financial effect: estimated interest rate savings  

Member States are estimated to have saved a total of EUR 8.5 billion on interest payments 
by  receiving  financial  assistance  through  SURE.  This  amount  is  based  on  the  first  eight 
issuances of SURE, up to the disbursement of 29 March 202233 (Table 3). The estimated interest 
savings  will  therefore  likely  increase  with  any  remaining  disbursements.  These  savings  were 
generated as SURE loans offered Member States lower interest rates than those they would have 
paid if they had issued sovereign debt themselves, and this over an average period of close to 15 
years34. This is due to the EU’s strong credit rating and the liquidity of the SURE bonds35. The 
largest savings were recorded by Member States with lower credit ratings. 

Table 3: Interest Rate Savings by Member State 

32 This seems to suggest that  SURE  primarily  provided necessary  support.  As  noted in  footnote  31, the  Quarterly 
Report on the Euro Area 2022 article develops the point that there is no evidence that SURE hindered the recovery 
by unnecessarily supporting firms and thereby impairing labour mobility and discouraging efficient reallocation.  
33 Further detail on the methodology can be found in Section III of the Quarterly Report on the Euro Area Vol. 20, 
No 2 (2021). 
34  These  estimates  exclude  any  possible  additional  confidence  effects  that  new  emergency  instruments,  including 
SURE,  may  have  had  on  the  confidence  of  economic  agents  and  the  interest  rate  spread  for  Member  States’ 
sovereign borrowing. Furthermore, Member States could reduce the volume of their own sovereign issuance in those 
funding periods, which likely improved the conditions they could achieve with that issuance.  
35  The  EU  has  an  AAA  rating  from  Fitch,  Moody’s,  DBRS  and  Scope  and  an  AA  (outlook  stable)  rating  from 
Standard and Poor’s.  

20 

-100-80-60-40-200200246810121416 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22EUR BnMonthly SURE expenditure (LHS)Service demand expectations (next 3 months) (RHS)Retail orders expectations (next 3 months) (RHS)Manufact. product. expectations (months ahead) (RHS) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Member 
State 

Belgium 
Cyprus 
Greece 
Spain 
Croatia 
Hungary* 
Italy 
Lithuania 
Latvia 
Malta 
Poland 
Portugal 
Romania 
Slovenia 
Slovakia 
Bulgaria 
Ireland 
Czechia 
Estonia** 
Total 

Amount 
disbursed 
(EUR bn) 
8.2 
0.6 
5.3 
21.3 
1.0 
0.7 
27.4 
1.0 
0.3 
0.4 
9.7 
5.9 
3.0 
1.1 
0.6 
0.5 
2.5 
2.0 
0.2 
91.8 

Average 
spread 

Average 
maturity 

Interest savings 
(EUR bn) 

0.06 
0.62 
0.73 
0.44 
1.11 
1.80 
0.96 
0.04 
0.10 
0.56 
0.48 
0.47 
2.27 
0.23 
0.09 
0.37 
0.11 
0.23 
0.00 
0.64 

14.7 
14.7 
14.5 
14.7 
14.3 
14.8 
14.8 
14.7 
14.6 
14.6 
13.3 
14.7 
14.6 
14.8 
14.9 
15.0 
14.7 
10.1 
15.0 
14.5 

0.14 
0.06 
0.51 
1.58 
0.16 
0.15 
3.76 
0.00 
0.00 
0.04 
0.63 
0.41 
0.85 
0.05 
0.01 
0.03 
0.05 
0.04 
0.00 
8.48 

Interest Savings 
(% amount 
disbursed) 
1.7 
9.5 
9.7 
7.4 
15.3 
22.5 
13.7 
0.5 
1.6 
8.4 
6.5 
7.0 
28.4 
4.3 
1.3 
6.6 
2.1 
1.9 
0.0 
9.2 

Note: Interest savings are computed bond by bond, and summed across issue dates and maturities.  
* Hungary has issued only two 10-year and 30-year euro-denominated bonds since 2020, both in November 2020. 
Using these two bonds, the spread between the yield curve in national currency and in euro was extrapolated at 
other maturities and other issue dates.  
** Estonia has issued only one outstanding 10-year bond, no data was available for other maturities. The spread 
with the EU SURE social bond at these other maturities is assumed to be close to zero. 

IV.  THE  CONTINUATION  OF  THE  EXCEPTIONAL  OCCURRENCES  THAT  JUSTIFY  THE 

APPLICATION OF THE SURE REGULATION 

This  section  reports  on  the  continuation  of  the  exceptional  occurrences  that  justify  the 
application of the SURE instrument, as required by the SURE Regulation36.  

While most Member States almost entirely removed COVID-19 related restrictions during 
2022, a new wave spread across Europe in Summer 2022. As it became clear that the threat 
posed by the Omicron variant was less acute compared to previous COVID-19 strains, Member 
States relaxed most of their remaining containment measures at varying paces throughout Spring 

36 Article 14(1) of the SURE Regulation. According to Art 12(3) of the SURE Regulation, the period of availability 
of  the  Instrument  during  which  a  CID  can  be  adopted  shall  end  on  31  December  2022.  According  to  Art.  12(4), 
where the Commission concludes in  its implementation report that the severe economic disturbance caused by the 
COVID-19 outbreak affecting the financing of eligible measures continues to exist, the Council, on a proposal from 
the  Commission,  may  decide  to  extend  the  period  of  availability  of  the  Instrument,  each  time  for  an  additional 
period of six months.  

21 

 
 
 
                                                           
2022. However, a new wave spread across Europe in Summer 2022 leading to a renewed rise in 
transmission  rates,  hospitalisations  and  deaths.  According  to  the  European  Centre  for  Disease 
Prevention and Control (ECDC), this wave now appears to be past its peak in all EU countries, 
having previously shifted from west to east37. As of 28 August 2022, transmission was falling in 
the EU/EEA, with the overall case notification rate decreasing by 14% compared to the previous 
week,  though  it  remains  relatively  high.  The  aggregate  14-day  COVID-19  death  rate  has  been 
falling for four weeks, but increased in two Member States.  

While COVID-19 temporary emergency  measures  are  expected to be increasingly  phased 
out,  a  resurgence  of  the  COVID-19  pandemic  in  the  EU  remains  a  risk  going  forward. 
Among others, the planned unwinding of COVID-19 temporary emergency measures reflects the 
successful vaccination campaign in the EU, the less aggressive strains of COVID-19 becoming 
dominant and the adaptation of economies to the changes induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. 
However,  the  possibility  of  a  resurgence  of  the  pandemic  should  not  be  ruled  out  in  the  EU 
during  the  autumn  2022  or  winter  2023,  which  would  bring  renewed  disruptions  to  the 
economy38. 

The  remaining  financial  assistance  under  SURE  will  remain  available  until  31  December 
2022.  Around  EUR 6.7  billion  would  remain  available.  However,  this  amount  is  likely  to 
decrease  markedly  by  the  end  of  2022,  since  several  Member  States  expressed  an  interest  in 
receiving additional financial assistance under SURE.  

V. REPORTING OBLIGATIONS UNDER THE EU SURE SOCIAL BOND FRAMEWORK 

This  report  goes beyond the  reporting  obligation  of  the SURE regulation, also  complying 
with the reporting requirement under the EU SURE Social Bond Framework.39 The latter 
requires reporting on the allocation of SURE proceeds, type of expenditure and impact of SURE.  

The  breakdown  of  SURE  proceeds  by  beneficiary  Member  State  and  by  type  of  Eligible 
Social Expenditure is provided in Sections 1.1 and 2.2, respectively. As of June 2022, over 
98% of the EUR 93.3 billion allocated had been disbursed to Member States and 99% of this has 
already been spent.  

SURE  public  expenditure  continues  to  be  well-aligned  with  the  UN  Sustainable 
Development  Goals  (SDGs).  A  breakdown  of  SURE-financed  public  expenditure  by  eligible 
social  expenditure,  as  outlined  in  the  Social  Bond  Framework,  shows  that  97%  is  spent  on 

37  See  ECDC  country  overview  report,  week  34  (ending  28  August)  2022:  https://covid19-country-
overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/index.html  
38  In  terms  of  economic  outlook,  the  downside  risk  related  to  a  possible  resurgence  of  the  virus  would  be 
compounded by the increased economic and political uncertainty related to the new challenges stemming from the 
Russian invasion of Ukraine, including, and most prominently, the surge in energy prices.  
39 The EU SURE Social Bond Framework defines a standard, which provides investors with assurances that the EU 
bonds issued within this framework relate to projects serving a true social purpose. The framework is therefore in 
line  with the ICMA Social Bond Principles, namely (i) the use of proceeds; (ii) the process for project evaluation 
and  selection; 
further  details,  please  see: 
eu_sure_social_bond_framework.pdf (europa.eu) 

(iii)  management  of  proceeds  and 

reporting.  For 

(iv) 

22 

 
 
 
                                                           
reducing the risk of unemployment and loss of income. As illustrated in Graph 18, this supports 
SDG  8  (Decent  Work  and  Economic  Growth)).  The  remaining  3%  is  spent  on  health-related 
measures, which supports SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being).  

The impact of SURE is reported on in Section 2.3 and Section 3. Estimates are provided of 
the  number  of  people  and  firms  supported  by  SURE  for  each  of  2020,  2021  and  2022.  SURE 
contributed  to  protecting  an  estimated  1½  million  jobs  that  were  saved  in  2020,  as  shown  in 
Section  3.1.  SURE  was  shown  to  have  supported  the  growth  rebound  in  2021  and  2022,  as 
shown in Section 3.2. Member States are now estimated to have saved EUR 8.5 billion in interest 
payments, as shown in Section 3.3. 

Graph 18: Social Bond Framework and SDG mapping 

SDG 3: Good 
Health and 
Well-being 

SDG 8: 
Decent 
Work and 
Economic 
Growth 

23 

 
 
 
ANNEX: Further detail on SURE transactions and disbursements 

Table A1:  Disbursements to Member States under SURE (in EUR billion) 
5th EU 
SURE 
issuance 
Transaction: 
09.03.2021 
Disburseme
nt: 
16.03.2021 
15y 

3rd EU 
SURE 
issuance 
Transaction: 
24.11.2020 
Disbursemen
t: 
01.12.2020 
15y 

6th EU SURE 
issuance 
Transaction: 
23.03.2021 
Disbursement: 
30.03.2021 

4th EU SURE 
issuance 
Transaction: 
26.01.2021 
Disbursement: 
02.02.2021 

7th EU SURE 
issuance 
Transaction: 
18.05.2021 
Disbursement: 
25.05.2021 

2nd EU SURE 
issuance 
Transaction: 
10.11.2020 
Disbursement: 
17.11.2020 

8th EU 
SURE 
issuance 
Transaction: 
22.03.2022 
Disbursemen
t: 
29.03.2021 
15y 

5y  25y  Total  8y  25.6y  Total 

7y  30y  Total 

10y  20y Total  5y  30y  Total 

1st EU SURE 
issuance 
Transaction: 
20.10.2020 
Disbursement: 
27.10.2020 

Total 
loan 
amou
nt 

Country 

Belgium  8.2 

Bulgaria  0.5 

Croatia  1.0 

Cyprus 

0.6 

Czechia  2.0 

Estonia  0.2 

Greece 

5.3 

Hungary  0.7 

Ireland 

2.5 

2.0 

1.3  0.7  2.0 

1.3  0.9 

2.2 

1.1  0.9 

0.3  0.2 

2.0 

0.5 

0.3  0.2  0.5 

0.2  0.1  0.3 

0.5 

0.2  0.1  0.2 

1.0 

1.0 

1.0 

1.0  1.0  2.0 

0.7 

0.7 

0.2 

0.2  0.1  0.3 

0.1  0.0 

0.1 

0.1  0.1 

1.6  0.9 

0.2 

2.5 

1.3  1.2 

0.7  1.2 

2.5 

1.9 

0.8 

0.1  0.0 

0.2  0.2 

0.1  0.1 

1.5  0.9 

0.1 

1.5 

0.5 

0.8 

0.1 

0.4 

0.2 

1.6 

2.4 

Poland  11.2  1.0  0.0  1.0 

2.6  1.7  4.3 

1.4 

1.4 

1.1  0.5 

Italy 

27.4  5.5  4.5  10.0  3.1  3.4  6.5 

4.5 

4.5 

3.9 

Latvia 

0.3 

Lithuania  1.0 

Malta 

0.4 

0.1  0.0  0.1 

0.2  0.1  0.3 

0.1  0.0  0.1 

0.0  0.0  0.1 

0.3 

0.1 

Portugal  5.9 

Romania  3.0 

Slovakia  0.6 

Slovenia  1.1 

3.0 

3.0 

0.3 

0.2  0.0  0.2 

Spain 

21.3  3.5  2.5  6.0  2.9  1.2  4.0 

0.5  0.4  0.9 

1.0  1.0 

Total 

93.3  10.0  7.0  17.0  8.0  6.0  14.0 

8.5 

10.0  4.0  14.0 

0.3 

2.9 

9.0 

24 

Total 
Disbur
sed 

% of 
total 
reques
ted 

Avg. 
maturit
y 

8.2 

0.5 

1.0 

0.6 

2.0 

0.2 

5.3 

0.7 

2.5 

100%  14.7 

100%  15.0 

100%  14.3 

100%  14.7 

100%  10.1 

100%  15.0 

100%  14.5 

100%  14.8 

100%  14.7 

27.4  100%  14.8 

0.3 

1.0 

0.4 

9.7 

5.9 

3.0 

0.6 

1.1 

100%  14.6 

100%  14.7 

100%  14.6 

87% 

13.3 

100%  14.7 

100%  14.6 

100%  14.9 

100%  14.8 

2.4  1.7 

4.1 

1.9  1.4 

3.4 

21.3  100%  14.7 

8.0  5.0 

13.0  8.1  6.0 

14.1 

2.2 

91.2 

98% 

14.5 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A2: Key Statistics of the EU’s SURE Borrowing Transactions (EUR) 

SURE #8 (March 2022) 

Tranche 

Size of bond 

Yield 

Spread 

Spread to Bund (bps) 

Spread to OAT (bps) 

New Issue Concession 

Total investor demand 

15 year 

2.17 bn 

1.199% 

MS-8bps 

55.9 

4.9 

1 bps 

35 bn 

Note: These statistics refer to the Commission’s borrowings on behalf of the Union. New issue concession refers 
to  the  premium  paid  to  investors  purchasing  a  new-issue  bond  over  the  spread  at  which  corresponding  bonds 
would be expected to trade in the secondary market. 

25