Decarbonising road transport : the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand.
Date: 2022-07-22
Institutions: European Environment Agency
Subjects: carbon neutrality, greenhouse gas, motor fuel, motor vehicle, reduction of gas emissions, report, road transport

EEA Report  No 02/2022

Transport and environment report 2021
Decarbonising road transport — the role of
vehicles, fuels and transport demand

EEA Report  No 02/2022

Transport and environment report 2021
Decarbonising road transport — the role of
vehicles, fuels and transport demand

Cover design: EEA
Cover photo: © EEA
Layout: Formato Verde

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Contents

Executive summary ....................................................................................................................................5

Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................................7

1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................9

1.1  Scope of the report ................................................................................................................................ 9

1.2  Structure of the report ........................................................................................................................ 10

2 Climate context and policy framework...............................................................................................13

2.1    Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 13

2.2    The EU climate-energy policy framework relevant for road transport greenhouse gas  
         emissions................................................................................................................................................13

2.3  Road transport greenhouse gas emissions: trends and outlook................................................... 17

3 The factors driving road transport greenhouse gas emissions ....................................................... 22

3.1 

Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 22

3.2  Premise and approach ........................................................................................................................ 22

3.3  Factors behind trends in greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars ................................. 24

3.4  Factors behind trends in greenhouse gas emissions from heavy goods vehicles ...................... 27

4 Transport activity and modal shares ................................................................................................. 32

4.1 

Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 32

4.2  Policy framework ................................................................................................................................. 32

4.3  Road transport demand and modal shift ......................................................................................... 35

5 The CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU ....................................... 41

5.1 

Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 41

5.2  Policy framework ................................................................................................................................. 42

5.3  Trends in the CO2 performance of new vehicles ............................................................................. 46

5.4  Trends in the CO2 emission performance of the vehicle stock ...................................................... 48

5.5    The electrification of road transport and its importance for future trends in greenhouse 
          gas emissions....................................................................................................................................... 50

6   The greenhouse gas emissions intensity of road transport energy ............................................ 59

6.1 

Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 59

6.2  Policy framework ................................................................................................................................. 59

6.3  The tank-to-wheel greenhouse gas emission intensity of the fuel mix ........................................ 62

6.4  The well-to-wheel and indirect land use change greenhouse gas emissions of the 

          current energy mix in road transport ............................................................................................... 67

3

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandContents

7   Looking to the future .........................................................................................................................72

7.1  Future development of CO2 emissions ............................................................................................. 72

7.2  Future of sustainable road transport ................................................................................................ 73

Abbreviations, symbols and units ..........................................................................................................76

References .................................................................................................................................................78

Annex 1 Approach used for the decomposition analysis .....................................................................85

4

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandExecutive summary

Road transport greenhouse gas emissions increased 
between 1990 and 2019. Current policies are projected to 
reverse this trend, but not sufficiently to reach the EU's 
2050 climate neutrality target.

this growth on emissions was reinforced by road transport's 

dominant and rising share. The most important factor partly 

compensating for the effect of transport activity was the 

improvement in energy efficiency (reduction in the energy 

consumption per tonne-kilometre).

Transport is responsible for a quarter of the EU's greenhouse 

gas emissions, with road transport representing the greatest 

share (72% in 2019). Climate and energy policies in the EU 

have contributed to significant reductions in greenhouse 

Until 2019, the electrification of the vehicle fleet did not yet 
play a significant role in reducing CO2 emissions from road 
transport. However, it is expected to become more important 

gas emissions in all sectors, except transport: total transport 

in the coming years.

greenhouse gas emissions increased by more than 33% 

between 1990 and 2019 and road transport emissions by 

The potential of modal shift has not been realised so far

almost 28%. According to the European Commission, taking 

into account all existing policy measures, transport carbon 
dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to be 3.5% higher in 2030 
than in 1990 and to fall by only 22% by 2050 compared to 1990 

The climate impacts of a passenger-kilometre travelled by car 

are currently substantially higher than those of buses and 

trains and active travel modes (walking and cycling). Similarly, 

levels. This is a long way from the 90 % reduction by 2050 that 

the climate impacts of a tonne-kilometre transported by trucks 

is needed from transport to achieve the overall 2050 climate 

currently exceed those of rail and inland navigation. The modal 

neutrality target. Road transport specifically is projected to 

share of cars in land-based passenger transport and the 

perform slightly better, with emissions decreasing by 4% by 

modal share of trucks in inland freight transport have grown, 

2030 and 35% by 2050, compared with 1990.

thus increasing the climate impacts of the transport sector. 

Importantly, the impact is dependent on the occupancy rate 

Road transport emissions remain primarily driven by an 
increasing demand for transport 

and the load factor.

This report presents a decomposition analysis for the period 

2000-2019, which explores the driving factors behind the 
trend in CO2 emissions from passenger cars and heavy 
goods vehicles.

EU standards have improved the CO2 performance of 
new cars and vans, but larger-scale changes in fleet 
electrification and charging infrastructure development 
remain necessary

CO2 emissions from passenger cars in the 27 EU Member 
States (EU-27) increased by 5.8% between 2000 and 2019. 

Over the past 10 years, CO2 performance standards for new 
cars and vans have been gradually tightened in the EU. For 
new trucks, the first standards were adopted in 2019. The 

The main driving factor contributing to this increase was the 

approach taken in the regulations enables manufacturers 

16.6% growth in passenger transport volumes, combined 

with a dominant and slightly increasing share of car transport 

among land-based transport modes. This effect was partly 

offset by improved energy efficiency, i.e., a reduction in the 
energy consumption per passenger-kilometre, and by the use 
of biofuels.

to choose the most efficient way to comply. The impact of 
the standards is visible in the trend in the CO2 performance 
of new cars and vans sold in the EU, especially at key target 

milestone years.

Sales of electric vehicles (battery electric vehicles and plug-in 

hybrid electric vehicles) have surged since 2017, tripling in 

For heavy goods vehicles, CO2 emissions rose by 5.5% between 
2000 and 2019. As for passenger cars, the growth in transport 

2020 when new targets started to apply. The number of new 

electric vehicles sold differs significantly across EU Member 

activity was the most important factor driving emissions 

States. Up until now, the highest sales volumes were recorded 

upwards. Inland freight transport activity (i.e. transport by 

in countries with a relatively high gross domestic product per 

road, rail, inland waterways and oil pipelines) increased by 

capita. Among Member States with similar income levels, the 

22% between 2000 and 2019, with fluctuations that are closely 

differences in electric vehicle uptake are partly explained by 

related to the general trends in economic activity. The impact of 

the variation in national and local policy measures.

5

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandExecutive summary

The CO2 efficiency of the entire vehicle stock has also improved, 
for both cars and heavy goods vehicles. For the latter, this is 

emission performance of biofuels and fossil fuels is even 

greater than for the scope of only exhaust emissions. However, 

partly explained by improvements in fuel efficiency and in 

the feedstock used to produce biofuels is decisive, as potential 

operational efficiency.

indirect land-use change from growing crops for biofuels can 

diminish these benefits.

To reach the 2030 and 2050 climate targets, an increase in the 

share of electric vehicles in the vehicle stock will be necessary. 

As the share of electric vehicles increases, the carbon intensity 

Bottlenecks that could hamper future electrification are 

of electricity production will become increasingly relevant to the 

the provision of a charging infrastructure and the need to 

assessment of the full climate impact of road transport.

accommodate the electricity demand of electric vehicles and 

the supply of raw materials for batteries. Emerging innovative 

solutions, as well as existing and proposed legislation, could 

help to deal with these bottlenecks.

Road transport fuels remain very carbon intensive, 
particularly considering the indirect land-use change to 
grow feedstocks for biofuels

Future outlook: all factors need to be harnessed to ensure 
decarbonisation

With the current policy framework, it is projected that CO2 
emissions from road transport in the EU will decrease by 35% 

by 2050 (compared with 1990). The decrease will be largely 

driven by increased efficiency of vehicles, including a shift to 

electric vehicles. Transport demand is projected to increase, 

Two key pieces of EU legislation have an impact on the 

and modal shift to have a limited effect on emissions.

greenhouse gas emission intensity of road transport fuels: 

the recast Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) and the Fuel 

However, the projected driving factors of future reductions in 

Quality Directive. The reduction in the greenhouse gas emission 

emissions by themselves will not have the same effect on other 

intensity of the road transport fuel mix has been mainly due to 

impacts on the environment, such as noise and non-exhaust 

the higher share of biofuels (a target for which is set in RED II). 

air pollutants, congestion, biodiversity loss and resource use. 

In 2020, the average share of energy from renewable fuels in 

To ensure that greenhouse gas emissions from road transport 

transport in the EU-27 was 10.2%: most of this share is biofuels.

are significantly reduced, and other impacts are also minimised, 

Considering the broader scope of emissions (well-to-wheel, 

upwards (demand and modal shares) could be harnessed to 

life cycle analysis), the contrast between the greenhouse gas 

reduce the GHG impact of the road transport sector.

factors that have so far driven greenhouse gas emissions 

6

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandAcknowledgements

The preparation of this report was led by Rasa Narkevičiūtė and 

Comments on the draft received from EEA member countries, 

Andreas Unterstaller (EEA). The report is based on a draft by the 

and the European Commission's TERM advisory group (Eurostat, 

European Topic Centre on Air Pollution, Transport, Noise and 

Directorate-General for Environment, Directorate-General for 

Industrial Pollution (ETC/ATNI), written by Sebastiaan Boschmans, 

Mobility and Transport, and Directorate-General for Climate 

Inge Mayeres and Sara Ochelen (Transport & Mobility Leuven). 

Action) are gratefully acknowledged.

7

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand© Livia-Theodora Mazilu-Manolescu, Climate Change PIX/EEA

1 
Introduction

Over the last three decades, the EU climate and energy policy 

1.1 

Scope of the report

framework has resulted in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission 

reductions in all sectors except transport. The European Green 

Deal states that achieving climate neutrality by 2050 requires 

a 90% reduction by 2050 in all transport GHG emissions 

compared with 1990. Road transport plays a crucial role in 

achieving this target, as it accounts for more than 70% of the 

EU's transport GHG emissions.

The GHG emissions of road transport are the focus of this 
report. They consist of almost 99% carbon dioxide (CO2) 
emissions. Some of the vehicle-related EU regulations address 
CO2 emissions specifically. Therefore, some chapters of the 
report focus on CO2 emissions. 

Depending on the driving factor underlying the GHG emissions, 

The environmental externalities related to road transport, 

the report considers tank-to-wheel (TTW) emissions or 

including GHG emissions, can be curbed by a combination of 

well-to-tank (WTT) emissions and emissions related to indirect 

'avoid, shift and improve' (ASI) strategies (based on Dalkmann 

land use change:

and Brannigan (2007)):

• 

'Avoid' strategies are directed towards reducing the number 

caused by fuel combustion during the driving phase. These 

of trips or trip length.

depend on the characteristics of both the fuel and the 

• 

The TTW emissions, also called exhaust emissions, are 

• 

'Shift' strategies aim for a modal shift towards more 

vehicle that is driven.

environmentally friendly transport modes. Together with 

• 

The WTT emissions, also called upstream emissions, 

the avoid strategies, they address transport demand as a 

take place during the upstream process of producing, 

determinant of GHG emissions.

transporting, manufacturing and distributing transport fuels 

and electricity.

• 

'Improve' strategies are about improving vehicle and fuel 

technologies to be more environmentally friendly.

• 

The emissions related to indirect land use change (ILUC), 

are defined as follows in the Renewable Energy Directive 

This report analyses the main driving factors underlying the 

(recast) (EU, 2018b): 'Indirect land-use change occurs when 

trend in GHG emissions from road transport in the EU, namely 

the cultivation of crops for biofuels, bioliquids and biomass 

the characteristics of the vehicles that are driven, the type of 

fuels displaces traditional production of crops for food 

energy they consume, the level of transport activity and the 

and feed purposes. Such additional demand increases 

shares of the different transport modes, that are linked to the 

the pressure on land and can lead to the extension of 

avoid, shift and improve strategies.

agricultural land into areas with high-carbon stock, such 
as forests, wetlands and peatland, causing additional 

The key questions addressed are: 

greenhouse gas emissions.'

•  How does the EU road transport sector perform in terms of 

A life cycle analysis (LCA) has a still broader scope as it 

the specific goals for vehicles and the energy they use? 

also considers the energy and emissions involved in the 

•  How is this sector currently contributing to achieving the 

manufacturing of the vehicles and the end-of-life stage.

overarching GHG reduction goals and how will they be 

reached in the future? 

Figure 1.1 presents an overview of the scope of these concepts.

construction and maintenance of the infrastructure and in the 

•  What are the main policy levers, challenges, obstacles 

and prospects?

9

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandIntroduction

Figure 1.1 

Different scopes of GHG emission calculations

Life cycle analysis (LCA)

Well-to-wheel (WTW)

Well-to-tank (WTT)

Tank-to-wheel (TTW)

Infrastructure

Vehicles
Batteries

Energy production/
transmission/distribution

Driving phase
Fuel combustion in vehicle

Sources:  EEA compilation.

Road transport in the report covers both passenger and freight 

1.2 

Structure of the report

transport, with a focus on cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles. 

However, as fewer data are available for heavy goods vehicles, 

Chapter 2 provides an overview of the climate context and 

the coverage of these vehicles is less detailed.

policy framework. It presents the current share of road 

Unless noted otherwise, the geographical scope of this report is 

for the trends in these emissions with current policies. The 

the 27 Member States of the EU (EU-27).

European energy climate policy framework is described, as 

transport in EU GHG emissions, past trends and the outlook 

Box 1.1  Country groupings

Throughout the report, abbreviations are used to refer 
to specific country groupings. The following definitions 
are used:

• 

• 

EU-27: the 27 EU Member States as of 1 February 2020;

European Economic Area: EU-27 Member States 
plus Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein. The 
European Economic Area status of the United 
Kingdom applied until 31 December 2020.

well as the way it affects road transport GHG emissions. The 

proposals released by the European Commission to revise the 

legislation are also introduced.

Chapter 3 presents the analysis of the driving factors behind 

the trends in the EU's road transport GHG emissions since 

2000. This is explored for GHG emissions from passenger 

cars and heavy goods vehicles. To understand what is behind 

these trends in emissions, six factors are considered in a 

decomposition analysis:

• 

the evolution of total passenger/freight transport activity;

• 

the modal share of road transport;

• 

the energy efficiency of road transport;

10

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandIntroduction

• 

the share of electricity in energy consumption by road 

these trends and assesses the difference in climate effects 

transport, as a result of the electrification of vehicles;

of the transport modes.

• 

the share of biofuels in the demand for non-electric energy 

•  Chapter 5 presents a deeper analysis of the improved 

for road transport;

efficiency of vehicles. The trends in the CO2 emission 
performance of new vehicles are presented, before 

• 

the GHG emission intensity of the fossil fuels.

assessing how the evolution of these new vehicles affects 

The next chapters provide more details about each of the 

driving factors in the decomposition analysis. Each chapter 

presents the relevant legislation targeting those factors, the 

the vehicle stock. In addition, Chapter 5 takes a closer look 
at one of the main ways to improve the CO2 performance of 
vehicles: the electrification of road transport vehicles.

past trends and the future outlook:

•  Chapter 6 is dedicated to the GHG emission intensity of 

road transport fuels. This chapter takes a closer look at 

•  Chapter 4 gives more information on the dominant driving 

the status and outlook with respect to the use of both 

factor behind the past trends in road transport GHG 

renewable energy, including biofuels, and fossil fuels.

emissions, namely the growth of passenger and freight 

transport activity and the increased modal share of road 

Lastly, Chapter 7 provides a brief future outlook, considering all 

transport. The chapter briefly goes into the determinants of 

the aspects analysed.

Figure 1.2 

Structure of the report

Chapter 1: Introduction

Chapter 2: Climate context and policy framework

Chapter 3: 
The factors 
driving road 
transport greenhouse 
gas emissions

Chapter 4: 
Transport activity 
and 
modal shares 

Chapter 5: 
The CO2 performance of 
cars, vans and 
heavy goods 
vehicles in the EU

Chapter 6: 
The greenhouse gas 
emissions intensity of 
road transport energy

ASI-framework

Avoid, shift, improve

Avoid, shift

Improve

Improve

Strategies

- passenger and freight 
  transport activity
- modal shares

- fuel eﬃciency of vehicles
- electriﬁcation of vehicles

- carbon intensity of 
  fossil fuels, biofuels 
  and electricity
- share of biofuels
- share of electricity

Scope of GHG emissions

Tank-to-wheel

Well-to-tank
Tank-to-wheel
Life-cycle analysis

Tank-to-wheel

Indirect land-use change
Well-to-tank
Tank-to-wheel

Source: 

EEA compilation.

Chapter 7: Looking to the future

11

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand© Turan Tupalar, Climate Change PIX/EEA

2 
Climate context and  
policy framework

Key messages

• 

• 

In contrast to other sectors, transport sector greenhouse gas emissions have increased in the past three decades. 
Emissions from transport increased by 33.5% between 1990 and 2019.

In 2019, transport was responsible for about a quarter of the EU's greenhouse gas emissions. Road transport 
accounted for 72% of EU transport emissions. With existing policy measures, transport emissions are projected to 
decrease by only 22% in 2050 compared with 1990. This is a long way from the 90% reduction for transport sought 
by the European Green Deal by 2050.

2.1 

Introduction

In December 2015 the Paris Agreement was signed by 
197 countries. They committed to substantially reduce global 

This chapter provides a general overview of the climate context, 

GHG emissions to limit the global temperature increase in this 

the general climate and energy policy framework in the EU and 

century to 2°C while pursuing means to limit the increase even 

the role of road transport in the EU's greenhouse gas (GHG) 

further, to 1.5°C (UN, 2021b). The already observed 1°C global 

emissions. The first section sketches the climate challenge and 

temperature rise makes this target very challenging. According to 

targets. It presents the general European policy framework, 

the United Nations, limiting warming to 1.5°C is not impossible yet 

highlighting the most important elements affecting road 

transport GHG emissions and the proposals to reinforce them. 

The second section presents the share of transport and road 

requires unprecedented changes in all aspects of society, with the 
next 10 years being critical. By 2030, global carbon dioxide (CO2) 
emissions would need to fall by about 45% compared with 2010 

transport in current European GHG emissions and the trends 

levels and reach net zero emissions by around 2050 (UN, 2021a).

in these emissions and the EU emission projections, comparing 

them with the targets.

EU climate targets

2.2 

The EU climate-energy policy framework 
relevant for road transport greenhouse 
gas emissions

2.2.1  The climate challenge and the global and EU 

climate targets

Global GHG concentrations in the atmosphere have already 

reached levels that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 

Change (IPCC) states should not be exceeded in order to limit 

the global temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial 

At the core of the European Green Deal (EC, 2019a) the 
European Commission proposed in September 2020 to raise 

the 2030 GHG emission reduction target to at least 55% 

compared with 1990. This stepping up of the 2030 target 

was endorsed by the European Council in December 2020 

(EU, 2020). The long-term target is for the EU to become 
climate neutral by 2050. The European Climate Law 
(EU (2021c)), adopted in June 2021, sets into law the objective 
of a climate‑neutral EU by 2050 and a collective, net, GHG 
emission reduction target (emissions after deduction of 
removals) of at least 55 % in 2030 compared with 1990. 
Climate neutrality means that by 2050, the EU aims to achieve 

levels by 2100. The recent assessment by the IPCC indicates 

net zero GHG emissions. This means that, although some GHG 

that, without significant emission reductions, global warming of 

emissions will remain, these should be offset by carbon capture, 

1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded (IPCC, 2021).

e.g. by soils and forests.

13

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandClimate context and policy framework

Although there are no corresponding legally enshrined 
sector‑specific reduction targets in the climate law, it envisages 
sectoral roadmaps towards climate neutrality. The European 
Green Deal states that a 90% reduction in GHG emissions 
from transport by 2050, with respect to 1990, will be needed 
to achieve climate neutrality for the economy as a whole. The 

Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy (EC, 2020d) sets out a 

roadmap to attain smart and sustainable mobility and identifies 

policy levers that can deliver this 90 % reduction in the transport 

sector's emissions by 2050.

In July 2021, the European Commission published a set of 
detailed legislative proposals, called the 'Fit for 55' package or 
'Delivering the European Green Deal' package, to achieve the 

targets agreed in the European Climate Law (EC, 2021b).

2.2.2  The European policy framework

and the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) 
Regulation. The EU ETS covers GHG emissions from power 
plants, large industrial plants and aviation, the latter for flights 
within the European Economic Area. The Effort Sharing 
legislation sets 2030 targets at EU and Member State levels 
and covers the remaining domestic GHG emissions from 

the sectors not covered by the EU ETS: transport, buildings, 
agriculture, small industrial installations and waste. The 
LULUCF Regulation sets a climate target concerning the 
carbon stock contained in soils and biomass, stating that there 

should be no net loss. This is the so-called no-debit rule, which 

each Member State must respect.

In addition, the Energy Efficiency Directive and the Energy 
Taxation Directive also have an impact on the road transport 
sector. For example, historically, it has been demonstrated that 

high taxes have contributed to more fuel-efficient cars and thus 
to lower average CO2 emissions per vehicle-kilometre of the car 
stock in the EU than the car stock in the United States, which 

There is a broad framework of legislation to support the EU's 

has lower prevailing fuel taxes (Eberhard et al., 2000).

aims to achieve its climate goals, including a reduction in 

the GHG emissions of road transport. Table 2.1 presents an 

This set of directives and regulations, their targets for 2030, 

overview of the legislation that plays a role in road transport 

their relevance for road transport and proposed changes in 

GHG reductions. General legislation setting targets and 

the Fit for 55 package are summarised in Table 2.2.

incentives with a potential impact on transport emissions is 

presented here; legislation targeting vehicles and fuels directly 

is presented in more detail in dedicated chapters.

The Fit for 55 package contains new legislative proposals, as 

The EU has adopted rules to ensure monitoring of progress 
towards its 2030 climate and energy targets, under the 
Governance Regulation. In accordance with these rules, 
all Member States have developed a National Energy and 

well as proposals to update existing EU legislation. Revisions are 

Climate Plan for the period 2021-2030, which, among other 

proposed for most of the legislation that affects road transport 

emissions and, if the proposals are accepted, they will have 

crucial implications for road transport.

things, describes the existing and planned policies and 
measures to achieve their GHG reduction targets (EC, 2021i). 
Member States must also outline in their National Energy and 

Climate Plans how much they will contribute to the overall 

The three headline policies for reducing GHG emissions are the 

energy efficiency target and how they will achieve this.

Emissions Trading System (ETS), the Effort Sharing legislation 

Table 2.1 

Main EU directives and regulations relevant for reducing road transport GHG emissions

Target of 
legislation

Title

General

Effort Sharing legislation 

EU Emissions Trading System

Energy Efficiency Directive

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation

Energy Taxation Directive

Vehicles

CO2 emission standards for new vehicles

Car Labelling Directive

Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Directive

Fuels

Fuel Quality Directive (FQD)

Renewable Energy Directive (recast) (RED II)

Proposal for revision  
in Fit for 55 package

Chapter in  
this report

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

(Yes)

Yes

2

5

6

Note: 

(Yes) – The Fit for 55 package does not include a revised FQD. However, the proposed RED II revision includes amendments to the FQD.

14

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandClimate context and policy framework

Table 2.2 

General EU directives and regulations currently in place with relevance for road transport 
GHG emissions

Legislation

2030 target and key elements

Relevance for road 
transport

Proposed key changes in Fit for 55 
package

Effort Sharing legislation

Regulation (EU) 2018/842, 
EU (2018d)

EU target: 30% GHG emission 
reduction with respect to 2005 
(non-ETS sectors).

Binding non-ETS GHG reduction 
targets per EU Member State.

Covers all GHG emissions that are 
not covered by the EU ETS or the 
LULUCF Regulation.

Road transport is 
one of the sectors 
covered by the Effort 
Sharing legislation, 
without a specific 
sub-target.

Transport and buildings sector 
continue to be covered under the 
Effort Sharing. (a)

It is proposed to increase the EU 
target for GHG reduction in the 
non‑ETS sectors to 40%, and to 
update the targets for the Member 
States accordingly.

EU Emissions Trading 

System

43% GHG emission reduction with 
respect to 2005 (ETS sectors).

Directive 2003/87/EC

Covers GHG emissions from power 
stations, manufacturing installations 
in energy-intensive industries, and 

The EU ETS 

addresses part of 
the well‑to‑tank CO2 
emissions of road 
transport: 

Separate EU ETS for road transport 
covering CO2 emissions from fuel 
combustion (EC, 2021k):

• 

It is conceived as an upstream 
system that will regulate fuel 

airlines operating between countries 

• 

from electricity 

suppliers rather than households 

of the European Economic Area.

generation 

and vehicle drivers.

(electric vehicles)

The EU ETS is a 'cap and trade' 

• 

It is intended to provide 

system: it sets a total cap on 

• 

from fuel 

additional financial incentives 

emissions, allocates the emission 

production 

to use energy-efficient and low-

rights and lets emitters receive or buy 

by refineries 

carbon fuels and vehicles, as well 

emission allowances. An emission 

regulated by the 

as to make more sustainable 

allowance grants the right to emit 
one tonne of CO2e. Companies 
can choose to reduce emissions or 

EU ETS.

mobility choices.

With greater uptake 

• 

The financial incentive is given 

trade allowances with one another, 

of electric vehicles 

via the ETS carbon price, which 

to achieve reductions at least cost. 

expected in the 

The price of emission allowances 

future, a larger part 

is determined on the market. The 

of road transport will 

EU ETS cap on emissions decreases 

(indirectly) fall within 

will be reflected in the fuel prices 
depending on the CO2 intensity of 
the fuels.

each year according to a linear path 

the scope of the EU 

The new ETS for road transport 

(EC, 2021d).

ETS, even with its 

is expected to increase the 

current set-up.

attractiveness of energy-efficient and 

low-carbon fuels and vehicles.

LULUCF Regulation 

Regulation (EU) 2018/841

No‑debit rule: emissions from land 
use must be compensated by the 
equivalent removal of CO2 from the 
atmosphere.

The proposal increases the EU net 
removal target (b).

Some ILUC emissions 

of road transport 

are included in 

the LULUCF sector 

(such as carbon 

released as a result 

of deforestation to 

give space for biofuel 

crops in the EU).

15

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand 
Climate context and policy framework

Table 2.2 

General EU directives and regulations currently in place with relevance for road transport 
GHG emissions (cont.)

Legislation

2030 target and key elements

Relevance for road 
transport

Proposed key changes in Fit for 55 
package

Energy Efficiency Directive

At least 32.5% energy efficiency 
improvement (compared with 
projections of the expected energy 

Energy consumption 

New targets have been proposed 

of road transport is 

(EC, 2021m). A further reduction in 

part of the overall 

energy consumption of at least 9% by 

use in 2030), at EU level. 

energy use. No sub-

2030 (compared with the reference 

Directive 2012/27/EU, 

Energy savings of final energy 

target. Concerning 

scenario projections). This is a new 

amended by Directive 

consumption, of 0.8% each year, for 

the energy efficiency 

(EU)2018/2002 (EU, 2018c)

the period 2021-2030.

in end use obligation, 

Member States can 

choose whether 

method of calculating EU energy 
efficiency that corresponds to a 36% 
saving in final energy consumption 
and a 39% saving in primary energy 

or not to take into 

consumption by 2030.

account energy 

use by transport 

The proposal also includes updates 

to achieve their 
obligation.

to the upper limit on final and 
primary energy consumption, which 
are about 4.7% and 9.3% lower 

than in the 2018 Energy Efficiency 

Directive, respectively.

Energy Taxation Directive 

Establishes the EU rules and the 

EU rules and 

The proposed recast of the Energy 

minimum excise duty rates that 

minimum excise duty 

Taxation Directive (EC, 2021j) 

Member States must apply to energy 

rates that Member 

includes:

products for fuel and transport and 

States must apply to 

Directive 2003/96/EC 

for electricity. 

energy products for 

•  new structure of tax rates, based 

Most Member States apply motor 

fuel and transport, 

on the energy content and 

fuel tariffs that are well above these 

and electricity.

environmental performance of 

minima. With the current national tax 

levels, the EU-27 unweighted average 

of implicit carbon tax rates amounts 
to around EUR 240/tonne CO2 for 
petrol and around EUR 160/tonne CO2 
for diesel (EC, 2020a). 

fuels and electricity (highest tax 

rates for the most polluting fuels) 

•  broadening of the taxable base 

by including more products in 

the scope and by removing some 

of the existing exemptions and 

reductions.

Note: 

CO2e, carbon dioxide equivalent; EU-27, 27 Member States of the EU; ILUC, indirect land use change. 
(a) COM (2021) 555, Commission Proposal: Revision of the Effort Sharing Regulation.
(b) COM (2021) 554, Commission Proposal: Revision of the Land Use, Forestry and Agriculture Regulation.

Source:   EEA compilation.

16

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand 
 
Climate context and policy framework

2.3 

Road transport greenhouse gas 
emissions: trends and outlook

The GHG emissions from transport (including international aviation 

and maritime transport) in the 27 Member States of the EU (EU-27) 

were 33.5% higher in 2019 than in 1990. Road transport emissions 

In this wider context of policy and targets, the role of road 

increased by 27.8%. Despite a drop in 2020 due to the COVID-19 

transport in reducing overall GHG emissions has so far 

crisis, it is expected that emissions will rebound.

been limited.

In 2019, road transport accounted for 71.7% of the EU-27 

In contrast to other sectors, transport sector GHG emissions 

transport sector emissions (Figure 2.2).

have increased in the past three decades. Following a brief 

drop after the 2008-2009 economic crisis, emissions started 

Among the road transport modes, cars have a dominant role, 

increasing again (see Figure 2.1). Preliminary data show that in 

accounting for 60.6% of emissions, followed by heavy-duty trucks 

2020, as a result of the COVID-19 crisis, emissions decreased  

and buses, which together represent 27.1% of the road transport 

(EEA, 2021a).

emissions in 2019.

Figure 2.1 

Trends in GHG emissions by transport mode in the EU-27, 1990-2019 (1990=100%)

Percentage (change in emission levels from 1990 (1990=100))

240

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Total civil aviation

International navigation

Transport including international bunkers

Road transport

Domestic navigation

Rail transport

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2019

Source:   EEA compilation based on EEA (2021d).

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandClimate context and policy framework

Figure 2.2 

Road transport emissions as a share of EU transport GHG emissions and share of road transport 
emissions by mode in the EU‑27, 2019

Transport*

Road transport

0.4 
0.5 

13.4 

14.1 

71.7 

Percentage

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

1.3 

11.0 

27.1 

60.6 

Road transport

Total navigation

Cars

Heavy-duty trucks and buses

Total civil aviation

Other

Railways **

Light-duty trucks

Motorcycles

Note: 

*Including international bunkers (international aviation and international maritime transport.
**Excluding indirect emissions from electricity consumption.

Source:   EEA compilation based on EEA (2021d).

Box 2.1  Climate accounting rules and implications for reporting the GHG emissions of road  transport

The European climate targets are consistent with the way greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are accounted for in EU and 
national GHG emissions inventories. Detailed rules are set up to ensure transparent, consistent, comparable, complete 
and accurate reporting (EC, 2016), in line with the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The 
basic principle is that GHG emissions are accounted for at the place and the moment they are released.

For transport, only the tank-to-wheel (TTW) emissions are reported, that is, the emissions that are released when 
burning fuel to propel the vehicles. The GHG emissions for electricity generation, refining of fossil fuels or cultivation 
of feedstocks and processing of biofuels take place in other sectors. These are the well-to-tank (WTT) emissions and 
are included in the EU inventory (and thus in the EU targets) if this production takes place on EU territory. They are not 
included in the transport emissions in Figure 2.1 and Figure 2.2.

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand 
Climate context and policy framework

According to the EU Reference Scenario 2020 (EC, 2021e), 
transport sector emissions are projected to decrease, and 

road transport is expected to contribute a large part of 

this reduction (Figure 2.3). Within road transport, most 

In 2020, passenger transport was severely affected by a 
system shock in the form of the COVID-19 pandemic. The EU 
Reference Scenario 2020 (EC, 2021e) estimates that in 2020 
intra-EU passenger transport decreased by 24% compared 

emission reductions are projected to come from passenger 

with 2019. About two thirds of this reduction would have 

cars (Figure 2.4).

been due to a fall in travel by passenger cars, public road 

transport and two-wheelers. Travel by rail, inland shipping 

Total transport emissions in the reference scenario are 

and intra-EU aviation is estimated to have halved.

expected to be 3.5% higher in 2030 than in 1990 and to 

decrease by 22% in 2050, relative to 1990. Compared with 

For freight transport, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic 

the historical transport emission trends, this reduction is 

in the EU-27 is considered to be smaller than that on 

substantial; however, there is a significant distance to reach 

passenger transport: a reduction of approximately 7%. For 

the economy-wide EU target of a 55% reduction by 2030 and a 

international maritime freight transport the impact is more 

90% reduction by 2050.

substantial, with an estimated reduction of 30% (EC, 2021e).

Figure 2.3 

CO2 emissions for transport (including international aviation but excluding international maritime) 
in the EU Reference Scenario 2020 in the EU-27 (MtCO2)

MtCO2

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

2005

2030

2050

Road

Aviation

Inland waterways and national maritime

Rail

90% reduction compared to 1990

Note: 

The EU Reference Scenario 2020 includes Member State and EU policies adopted up to the end of 2019.

Source:  

 EC (2021e).

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandClimate context and policy framework

Figure 2.4 

CO2 emissions from road transport in the EU Reference Scenario 2020 in the EU-27 (MtCO2)

MtCO2 

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

2005

2030

2050

Cars

Heavy goods vehicles

Vans

Other road transport

Note: 

The EU Reference Scenario 2020 includes Member State and EU policies adopted up to the end of 2019.

Source:  

 EC (2021e).

Box 2.2 

EU Reference Scenario 2020

The EU Reference Scenario is the baseline for the impact assessments for the Fit for 55 package. It presents an outlook 
for the future evolution of CO2 emissions from transport, based on PRIMES-TREMOVE modelling. The scenario includes 
a vast array of existing policies: the post-2020 CO2-standards for new light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles, the Directive 
on the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure, the Renewable Energy Directive, the Fuel Quality Directive and 
the Directive on the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure, the Trans-European Transport Network Regulation 
supported by Connecting Europe Facility funding and so on. The scenario takes into account the impacts of the 
COVID-19 pandemic.

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand© Ahmet Hukic ImaginAIR/EEA

3 
The factors driving road 
transport greenhouse gas 
emissions

Key messages

• 

• 

Carbon dioxide emissions from passenger cars in the 27 EU Member States increased by 5.8% between 2000 and 
2019. The main factor contributing to this increase was the 16% growth in passenger transport volumes, combined 
with a dominant and slightly increasing share of car transport among land-based transport modes. This effect was 
partly offset by improved energy efficiency, i.e., a reduction in the energy consumption per passenger-kilometre, 
and by the use of biofuels.

For heavy goods vehicles, carbon dioxide emissions rose by 5.5% between 2000 and 2019, primarily driven by the 
growth in freight transport activity. This was reinforced by a rising share of road transport among land-based 
transport modes. The most important factor compensating the increase in emissions was an improvement in 
energy efficiency, which was more significant than for passenger cars.

3.1 

Introduction

To explore the drivers behind the trends in GHG emissions of 

the most emitting road transport categories, a decomposition 

As shown in Chapter 2, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 

analysis was conducted (see Box 3.1).

road transport sector in the EU have increased over the last 

three decades, in contrast to the developments in other sectors. 

To explore the factors driving the evolution of these GHG 

emissions over time, a decomposition analysis was conducted 

for passenger cars and for heavy goods vehicles in the 27 EU 

Member States (EU-27). This chapter presents the approach and 
the results of this analysis.

3.2 

Premise and approach

Two separate analyses were conducted for each transport 
category: one for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which 
make up approximately 99% of the GHG emissions from 

road transport, and the second for emissions of methane 
(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The scope of the analysis is 
the tank-to-wheel (TTW) emissions, accounted for in the GHG 

emissions inventories.

The approach chosen was aligned with previous EEA analyses 

(EEA 2015, 2019a), to allow comparability. The decomposition 

Cars and heavy-duty vehicles (which include buses, coaches 

analysis was conducted for the period 2000-2019. The factors 

and trucks) are responsible for most of the road transport 

have been selected according to two criteria: (1) previous 

emissions, as illustrated in Figure 3.1. Together they accounted 

analyses have shown that they are relevant, and (2) data 

for almost 88% of road transport GHG emissions in 2019. 

availability. In contrast to previous EEA analyses, to investigate 

Among the heavy-duty vehicles, heavy goods vehicles used 

the role of electrification in the car market a distinction is now 

for transporting freight are the category with the greatest 

made between electric and non-electric energy consumption by 

emissions (EC, 2021e).

passenger cars.

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe factors driving road transport greenhouse gas emissions 

Figure 3.1 

GHG emissions from road transport in the EU‑27, 2000‑2019

MtCO2e

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cars

Heavy-duty trucks and buses

Light-duty trucks

Motorycles

Source:  

 Compilation based on EEA (2021d).

Box 3.1  What is a decomposition analysis?

Decomposition analysis is a technique used to illustrate and compare the respective contributions of selected 
explanatory factors to emissions of greenhouse gases over time.

First, an equation linking the observed emissions to the selected factors is specified. These factors are typically 
chosen as those likely to have had a significant impact on emissions over the period considered, and for which data 
are available. The decomposition analysis assumes that each of the different explanatory factors is independent, 
i.e., no interaction or synergy between different factors is assumed. The number of factors should be limited (usually 
four to six), as the change in emissions is effectively 'decomposed' and distributed according to which factor is most 
important in terms of its impacts on emissions across the period chosen; therefore, selecting many factors can 
complicate the result. Furthermore, as the results are dependent on the explanatory factors chosen, they should not be 
considered an exhaustive assessment of the contributory factors responsible for past changes in emissions (EEA, 2015).

The figures presenting the decomposition analysis results in this report show the relative contributions made by each 
factor to changes in emissions over time, i.e. those responsible for either increasing or decreasing emissions, compared 
with the year 2000. Together, the sum of the different factors in each year is the same as the observed change 
in emissions.

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe factors driving road transport greenhouse gas emissions 

The decomposition analysis for the emissions of passenger cars 

The first driving factor can be influenced by 'avoid' strategies, 

and heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) of >3.5 tonnes used the same 

the second factor by 'shift' strategies and factors three to six by 

methodology, with driving factors adapted to passenger/ freight 

'improve' strategies.

transport, respectively. The following six potential driving 

factors behind emission trends were considered:

1.  Passenger/freight transport activity. For cars: the number 

of passenger-kilometres travelled by land-based passenger 

transport modes, namely passenger cars, powered 

two-wheelers, buses and coaches, railways, trams and 
metros. For HGVs: the number of tonne-kilometres (1) 
carried by inland waterways, railways and road transport.

2.  Modal share. The share of passenger-kilometres travelled 
by car in overall passenger transport activity/the share 

of tonne-kilometres delivered by HGVs in overall freight 

transport activity.

For the decomposition analysis for emissions of methane 
(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), no separate factor is 
considered for the biofuel effect. The analysis of CH4 and N2O 
emissions considered their values weighted by their global 
warming potential (3).

Annex 1 provides more information on the methodology and 

the data sources.

3.3 

Factors behind trends in greenhouse gas 
emissions from passenger cars

3.3.1  Results of the decomposition analysis for the 

3.  Energy efficiency. The energy consumed per 

CO2 emissions

passenger-kilometre by passenger cars/energy consumed 
per tonne-kilometre by HGVs. This includes the energy 

consumption of fossil fuels, biofuels and electricity.

Figure 3.2 presents the evolution of the driving factors since 
2000. The overall CO2 emissions from passenger cars in the 
EU-27 increased by 5.8% between 2000 and 2019.

4.  Effect of electrification. Approximated as the share of 

non-electric energy (fuels) in the energy consumption by 

Figure 3.3 provides the results of the decomposition analysis. 

cars. This factor is not used for HGV analysis.

It presents an overview of how much each driving factor 

contributed to this change in emissions, given the changes 

5.  Biofuel effect. Measured using the share of fossil fuels in 

presented in Figure 3.2.

non-electric energy consumption by passenger cars/HGVs. 
Biofuels are attributed a CO2 emission factor of zero in the 
climate accounting (2)

The main driving factor has been the growth in passenger 

transport volumes. Between 2000 and 2019, passenger 

transport demand (road and rail) grew by 16.6%, with a dip 

6.  Carbon intensity of fossil fuels. Defined as the CO2 

between 2009 and 2012, following the financial/economic 

emissions per unit of fossil fuel consumed (by cars/HGVs). 

This carbon intensity factor is a weighted average of the 
CO2 emission factors for the fossil fuels included in the GHG 
emission inventory.

crisis. This driving factor has determined the main pattern in 
the trends in CO2 emissions from car transport: in most years, 
when passenger transport demand grew, CO2 emissions 
followed, and vice versa.

(1) 

 Freight amount is measured in terms of mass of the load carried and distance over which the load travels. A unit of freight amount is thus 
expressed in terms of, for example, tonne-kilometres. A tonne-kilometre corresponds to the activity of carrying 1 tonne of freight over 
1 kilometre.

(2)  The CO2 emissions that take place during the combustion of biofuels are reported under the GHG emission inventory heading 'transport' and 
for the different transport modes, but they are not accounted for in total transport emissions. Instead, they are included under the memo 
items (reported emission sources not included in the aggregation of the national totals). Biofuels are therefore attributed a CO2 emission 
factor of zero in the climate accounting for transport. The emission factor of biofuels for CH4 and N2O, the other two GHGs included in the GHG 
inventory, is not zero.

(3)  Over 100 years, CH4 and N2O have a global warming potential of 25 and 298, respectively, compared with CO2 (EEA (2020a) based on UNFCCC 
(2013)). The global warming potential allows comparisons of the global warming impacts of different gases. Specifically, it is a measure of how 
much energy the emissions of 1 tonne of a gas will absorb over a given period of time, relative to the emissions of 1 tonne of CO2.

24

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe factors driving road transport greenhouse gas emissions 

Figure 3.2 

Changes in the driving factors considered in the decomposition analysis — passenger cars in the 
EU-27, 2000-2019 (2000=1)

Change compared to 2000 (2000=1.00)

1.20

1.15

1.10

1.05

1.00

0.95

0.90

0.85

Land-based passenger transport
demand (in passenger-km)

CO2 emissions:passenger cars

Share of car transport in land-based 
transport demand

Carbon intensity of fossil fuels
Share of fuels (fossil and biofuels) in energy
consumption of passenger cars

Share of fossil fuels in fuel consumption
by passenger cars
Energy consumption per unit of 
car transport demand

0.00

2000

2005

2010

2015

2019

Source:  

 EEA compilation based on the data sources summarised in Annex 1.

Two of the other factors were also found to contribute to a 

reduction targets for new cars sold in the EU were adopted. As 

rise in emissions. First, the growth in the modal share of car 

the indicator for energy efficiency considers all energy sources 

transport, which increased from 78.5% to 79.6% between 

consumed by road transport, including electricity, this energy 

2000 and 2019. Second, especially in recent years, the carbon 

efficiency effect is also linked to the uptake of electric vehicles in 

intensity of the fossil fuels consumed by passenger cars has 

the later years of the analysis.

increased, though modestly.

The two main factors counteracting the effects of transport 
activity and contributing to lower CO2 emissions are the higher 
energy efficiency of passenger cars (the energy consumption 

Finally, the results show that in the period considered 

(2000-2019) the electrification of passenger cars has not yet 
played a significant role in reducing emissions.

per passenger-kilometre decreased by just over 6%) and the 

These factors are further explored in Chapters 4 (transport 

higher share of biofuels. The energy efficiency improvements 

demand and modal shift), 5 (energy efficiency of vehicles) and 6 

have had an effect since 2009 when mandatory emission 

(carbon intensity of fuels and the effect of biofuels).

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe factors driving road transport greenhouse gas emissions 

Figure 3.3 

Decomposition analysis of the CO2 emissions from passenger cars in the EU‑27,  
2000‑2019 — percentage contribution

Percentage

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

CO2 emissions:passenger cars

Carbon intensity of fossil fuels eﬀect

Modal split eﬀect

Eﬀect of total inland passenger
transport demand

Energy eﬃciency eﬀect

Electriﬁcation eﬀect

Biofuel eﬀect

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Note:  

  CO2e emissions: percentage change compared to the year 2000.
  Driving factors: Percentage contribution of driving factors to percentage change in CO2 emissions from passenger cars.

Source:  

  EEA compilation.

3.3.2  Results of the decomposition analysis for CH4 

and N2O emissions

The decomposition analysis was also conducted for the CH4 and 
N2O emissions from passenger cars, weighted by their global 
warming potential. In 2019, these two substances made up 

about 1% of the GHG emissions from passenger cars.

The CO2e (CO2 equivalent) emissions from passenger cars 
related to CH4 and N2O nearly halved during the period 
2000-2019 (Figure 3.4), predominantly driven by reductions in 

the average emission intensity of transport fuels.

26

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand  
The factors driving road transport greenhouse gas emissions 

Figure 3.4 

Decomposition analysis of the CO2e emissions from passenger cars related to CH4 and N2O in the 
EU‑27, 2000‑2019 — percentage contribution

Percentage

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

CO2e emissions (CH4 and N2O):
passenger cars

Modal split eﬀect

Electriﬁcation eﬀect

Eﬀect of total inland passenger
transport demand

Energy eﬃciency eﬀect

Eﬀect of CO2e intensity (CH4 and N2O)
of transport fuels

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 2019

Note:  

CO2e emissions: percentage change compared to the year 2000.
Driving factors: Percentage contribution of driving factors to percentage change in CO2e emissions from passenger cars, related to the 
N2O and CH4 emissions.

Source:   EEA compilation.

3.4 

Factors behind trends in greenhouse gas 
emissions from heavy goods vehicles

after the economic crisis played a role in the decrease in 

emissions between 2008 and 2014. Then, as demand started 

3.4.1  Results of the decomposition analysis for 

CO2 emissions

Figure 3.5 presents the trend in CO2 emissions from HGVs 
and the underlying driving factors analysed. Figure 3.6 

presents the relative importance of the different driving 
factors contributing to the total CO2 emissions from HGVs.

The CO2 emissions from HGVs were 5.5% higher in 2019 
than in 2000. A period of growth until 2007 was followed by 

rising again in 2014, so did the emissions.

Total demand for inland freight transport increased by 

almost 25% in the period 2000-2019.

The modal share of HGVs in terms of load carried 

over distance (tonne-kilometres) also increased. More 

specifically, the number of tonne-kilometres transported 

in the EU-27 by inland waterways and railways increased 

by 5% between 2000 and 2019, whereas HGV transport 

rose by 31%. The share of HGV transport has also 

annual reductions until 2014, after which emissions started 

increased, from 72% in 2000 to 76.4% in 2019, which 

increasing. Freight demand has been a key factor contributing 

also contributes to increased HGV emissions during 

to these trends. The reduction in freight transport demand 

this period.

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand  
The factors driving road transport greenhouse gas emissions 

However, improvements in energy efficiency have been the 

emissions inventory. The share of biofuels was 0.6% in 2000 

main factor contributing to limiting the increase in emissions 

and 6.4% in 2019.

during the periods of growth in demand. Energy consumption 

per tonne-kilometre transported decreased by almost 15% 

between 2000 and 2019, a more significant reduction than that 

for passenger cars.

Changes in the CO2 intensity of fossil fuels used by HGVs played 
a negligible role, as diesel remained the dominant fossil fuel. The 

diesel share in fossil fuels was 99.5% in 2000 and 98.9% in 2019.

Another factor that appears to have contributed to limiting 
increases in CO2 emissions is the broader adoption of biomass 
fuels, which are considered to be carbon neutral in the GHG 

These factors are further explored in Chapters 4 (transport 

demand and modal shift), 5 (energy efficiency of vehicles) and 6 

(carbon intensity of fuels and biofuel effect).

Figure 3.5 

Change of the driving factors considered in the decomposition analysis — heavy goods vehicles in 
the EU-27, 2000-2019 (2000=1)

Change from 2000 (2000=1.00)

1.25

1.20

1.15

1.10

1.05

1.00

0.95

0.90

0.85

0.80

0.00

Inland freight transport demand 
(in tonne-km)

Share of heavy-duty trucks in
inland freight transport
CO2 emissions:heavy-duty trucks

Carbon intensity fossil fuels

Share of fossil fuels in fuel 
consumption by heavy-duty
trucks

Energy consumption per unit of
heavy-duty trucks demand

2000

2005

2010

2015

2019

Source:  

 EEA compilation based on the data sources summarised in Annex 1.

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe factors driving road transport greenhouse gas emissions 

Figure 3.6 

Decomposition analysis of the CO2 emissions of heavy goods vehicles in the EU‑27, 2000‑2019 — 
percentage contribution

Percentage

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

CO2 emissions: heavy goods vehicles

Carbon intensity of fossil fuels eﬀect

Modal split eﬀect

Eﬀect of total inland freight 
transport demand

Energy eﬃciency eﬀect

Biofuel eﬀect

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 2019

Note:  

 CO2 emissions: percentage change compared to the year 2000.
 Driving factors: Percentage contribution of driving factors to percentage change in CO2 emissions from HGVs.

Source:  

 EEA compilation.

3.4.2  Results of the decomposition analysis for CH4 

growth in road freight transport, but mainly due to the higher 

and N2O emissions

emission intensity of the fuels used by HGVs since 2009.

Between 2000 and 2004, exhaust CO2e emissions from 
HGVs related to CH4 and N2O decreased (Figure 3.7), thanks 
to a combination of the energy efficiency effect, which was 

The main factors explaining the past and projected trends 
in the GHG emissions from road transport will be explored 

further in the next chapters: the evolution of road transport 

reinforced by reductions in the emission intensity of the fuels. 

demand and modal shift in Chapter 4, the energy efficiency 

These factors outweighed the growth of road freight transport. 

of the vehicles and the role of the electrification of the vehicle 

After 2004, the emission reductions became smaller, and 

stock in Chapter 5 and the carbon intensity of transport 

emissions started to increase. This was partly because of the 

energy in Chapter 6.

29

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand  
The factors driving road transport greenhouse gas emissions 

Figure 3.7 

Decomposition analysis of the CO2e emissions from heavy goods vehicles related to CH4 and N2O in 
the EU‑27, 2000‑2019 — percentage contribution

Percentage

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

CO2e emissions (CH4 and N2O):
heavy goods vehicles

Eﬀect of CO2e intensity (CH4 and N2O)
of transport fuels

Modal split eﬀect

Eﬀect of total inland freight 
transport demand

Energy eﬃciency eﬀect

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 2019

Note:  

CO2e emissions: percentage change compared to the year 2000.
Driving factors: Percentage contribution of driving factors to percentage change in CO2e emissions from HGVs, related to the N2O and 
CH4 emissions.

Source:   EEA compilation.

30

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand 
© Vyacheslav Popov, Climate Change PIX/EEA

4 
Transport activity and 
modal shares

Key messages

• 

• 

• 

Land-based passenger transport increased by 16.6% between 2000 and 2019. This is a key factor in driving 
emissions upwards during this period.

Inland freight transport activity (i.e. freight by road, rail, inland waterways and oil pipelines) increased more than 
passenger transport, by 22% between 2000 and 2019. Freight volumes are closely related to the economic situation 
and are an important factor in greenhouse gas emission trends.

The climate impacts of a passenger-kilometre travelled by car are currently substantially higher than those of both 
public transport and active travel modes (walking and cycling). Similarly, the climate impacts of a tonne-kilometre 
transported by road currently exceed those of rail and inland navigation. The modal share of cars in land-based 
passenger transport and the modal share of trucks in inland freight transport has grown, thus increasing the 
impacts of the transport sector on climate. Importantly, the impact is dependent on the occupancy rate and the 
load factor.

4.1 

Introduction

increasing the number of passengers travelling by rail and 

commuting by public transport and active modes, as well 

In the decomposition analysis in Chapter 3, transport 

as shifting a substantial amount of freight onto rail, inland 

volumes were the dominant factor driving past trends in road 

waterways, and short sea shipping); and (3) internalisation 

transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This chapter 

of external costs (by implementing the 'polluter pays' and 

further explores the developments in transport activity, for 

'user pays' principles, in particular through carbon pricing and 

both passenger and freight transport. It also looks at the 

infrastructure charging mechanisms).'

modal shares and compares the different transport modes 

with respect to their average GHG emissions.

The first policy lever is discussed in Chapters 5 (vehicles) and 6 
(fuels) of this report. Concerning the second policy lever, modal 

shift, the Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy contains the 

4.2 

Policy framework

following targets:

The Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy of the European 

•  doubling of high-speed rail traffic by 2030 and tripling by 

Commission (EC, 2020d) indicates that in order to reach 
the climate targets 'all policy levers must be pulled: 
(1) measures to significantly reduce the current dependence 

on fossil fuels (by replacing existing fleets with low and 

2050 (compared with 2015);

•  doubling of rail freight traffic by 2050 (compared with 2015);

zero-emission vehicles and boosting the use of renewable 

• 

increase in transport by inland waterways and short sea 

and low-carbon fuels); (2) decisive action to shift more 

shipping of 25% by 2030 and of 50% by 2050 (compared 

activity towards more sustainable transport modes (notably 

with 2015).

32

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandTransport activity and modal shares

Concerning the internalisation of external costs, the Strategy 

•  All external costs of transport within the EU will be covered 

sets two milestones:

by the transport users by 2050 at the latest.

•  Rail and waterborne-based intermodal transport will 

To optimise transport demand and to promote a modal shift 

be able to compete on an equal footing with road-only 

towards sustainable modes, a broad set of policies is used, at EU 

transport in the EU by 2030 (in terms of the share of 

external costs internalised).

level, as well as at national, regional and local levels. Table 4.1 
gives examples (4) of 'avoid' and 'shift' strategies at EU level.

Table 4.1 

Examples of 'avoid' and 'shift' strategies at EU level

Avoid

Shift Selection of approaches

Examples

Confronting all modes with 
their external costs

•  Eurovignette Directive 1999/62/EC (and proposed revision)

•  EU Emissions Trading System (existing scheme via energy costs of road 

and electric vehicles; proposed scheme has separate systems for transport 
and buildings)

•  Energy Taxation Directive (and proposed revision)

Financial support to 
sustainable modes via 
dedicated programmes

•  Trans-European Transport Network Regulation supported by Connecting 

Europe Facility funding

•  European structural and investment funds

•  Loans and guarantees from the European Investment Bank

Removing administrative 
and technical barriers

•  Research and innovation programmes

•  Successive railway packages

•  European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) European deployment plan

•  Transport policy frameworks for inland waterways and short sea shipping

Supporting digital solutions  •  Legislative and non-legislative digitalisation initiatives in all transport modes

•  Policies related to the development/enhancement of digital skills and the 

improvement of connectivity and broadband coverage

•  Research and innovation programmes

Combination of 
approaches targeted at 
urban mobility

Initiatives and funding programmes to stimulate sustainable urban mobility 
approaches and innovative solutions. For example: Urban Mobility Package 
(2013); Urban Agenda for the EU (2016); Urban Mobility Partnership Action Plan 
(2018); CIVITAS and the European Local Transport Information Service (ELTIS)

Source: 

EEA compilation based on EC (2020d), EU (no date), Pastori et al. (2018) and EEA (2019d).

Note:  

 Shading indicates if the approaches listed support 'avoid', 'shift' strategies (or both).

(4) 

 It is a non-exhaustive overview. A more complete overview is given in EC (2020d), EU (forthcoming), Pastori et al. (2018) and EEA (2019d).

33

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandTransport activity and modal shares

For 'avoid' and 'shift' GHG reduction strategies, national and 

to avoid unnecessary trips, reduce trip length, and promote the 

local level policies have a key role. Member States may use 

use of multimodal solutions and sustainable transport modes. 

a range of policies and measures, to achieve the binding 

These cover a wide range of approaches, for example economic 

national Effort Sharing legislation targets, as stated in their 

instruments, the provision of transport infrastructure and the 

National Energy and Climate Plans (EC, 2021l). Table 4.2 gives 

supply of sustainable transport services, various regulatory 

an overview of policies and measures that can be put in place 

measures in transport and spatial planning.

Table 4.2 

Examples of shift and avoid policy instruments at local, regional and national levels

Approach

Avoid

Shift

Examples

Typical level of government

Local

Regional

National

Economic 
instruments 
to provide 
the right 
price signal 
reflecting all 
external costs

Transport 
infrastructure 
and supply of 
sustainable 
transport 
services

Spatial 
planning

Regulatory 
measures in 
transport

Other policy 
measures

Congestion pricing schemes, distance-based 
charging

Fuel taxation and removal of tax exemptions

Car taxation

Parking prices

Tax treatment of company cars

Tax treatment of commuting costs

Car scrapping fees 

Public transport pricing

Public transit services: improving the coverage, 
frequency, comfort, information provision and 
payment systems 

Reallocating road space 

Traffic management and control

Infrastructure for multimodal freight transport 

Providing sharing platforms for bikes, e-bikes, 
cargo-bikes, etc.

Improving the quality and coverage of 
infrastructure for walking, cycling and light 
electric vehicles, such as safe bike lanes, 
pavements, priority pedestrian crossings

Planning to increase urban densities, to foster 
the mixed use of land, to improve connectivity 
and accessibility

Environmental zones, car bans, pedestrian 
zones, other access regulations

Speed limits and other traffic rules

Parking regulations

Multimodal transport information, management 
and payment

Marketing and rewarding

Awareness campaigns

Legislation on teleworking

Site-based travel plans

Source: 

Based on Vanherle et al. (2021), International Transport Forum (2021) and Bartle et al. (2016).

34

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandTransport activity and modal shares

A wider policy context is essential to ensure these transport 
measures are effective and are not undermined. In urban 

of digitalisation and fiscal policy (e.g. related to the fiscal 
treatment of company cars) can contribute to sustainable road 

and metropolitan areas, the Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans 

transport (International Transport Forum, 2021).

contribute to this principle (EC, 2021r). An important related 
policy domain is land use policy. For example, the International 
Transport Forum (ITF, 2021) advises that the street space and 

urban land allocated to cars should be reviewed. A well-planned 

4.3 

Road transport demand and modal shift

reduction in road capacity for cars can lead to 'disappearing 

4.3.1  Passenger transport trends

traffic', instead of adding to congestion. Developing compact 

urban areas and mixed-use neighbourhoods can contribute 

In 2019, more than 5.4 trillion passenger-kilometres were 

to reducing demand for private vehicle use by shortening 

travelled in the 27 Member States of the EU (EU-27) by road and 

the distances required to access amenities. In addition to 
this, building policy (e.g. abolishing the requirements for 
minimum parking, which tend to increase car dependency), 

rail (Figure 4.1). This number represents an increase of 16.6% 

compared with 2000 (EC, 2020e). Car passenger transport is the 

dominant mode. Moreover, its share increased from 78.5% to 

as well as policies that stimulate the development and uptake 

79.6% between 2000 and 2019.

Figure 4.1 

Passenger transport by road/rail modes in billion passenger‑kilometres and car share in the 
EU-27, 2000-2019

Billion passenger-kilometres

79

79

79

79

79

79

79

79

79

79

79

79

79

79

79

79

79

80

80

80

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Passenger cars

Bus and coach

Railway

Powered two-wheelers

Tram and metro

Modal share passenger cars (percentage)

Source: 

EC (2021f).

35

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandTransport activity and modal shares

Important general determinants of passenger transport 
activity and modal choice are demographic trends (size and 

composition of the population), economic development, land 

use patterns and other general trends such as digitalisation, 

and changes in consumer preferences or habits (EEA, 2016). 

Transport activity is the result of the interplay between 
these general determinants and the characteristics of the 
transport system (in terms of capacity, coverage, user costs, 
speed, etc.). Policies at EU level and a national, regional and 
local levels influence these general determinants as well as 

the transport system.

pricing, the shares of the more sustainable transport modes 

can be increased further.

The way in which the transport system is organised might 
change drastically in the future, for instance via the 
increased availability of shared transport services or, even 

more fundamentally, when vehicle automation of a high degree 

becomes a reality. In that case, the impacts on the level of 

transport demand could be substantial.

4.3.2 

Freight transport trends

For future years, with existing policies, the EU Reference 
Scenario 2020 (EC, 2021e) projects a rebound in passenger 
transport demand after the COVID-19 pandemic and a 

The total demand for inland freight transport (i.e. by road, rail, 

inland waterways and oil pipelines) increased by 22% between 

reduction in the share of car transport. The three core policy 

2000 and 2019, although it fluctuated over this time (Figure 4.2). 

scenarios that are used across the impact assessments 

In 2019, 2,411 billion tonne-kilometre were transported by 

supporting the Fit for 55 package indicate that, with varying 

these modes. The share of road transport in this demand grew 

combinations of transport policy measures and carbon 

from 68% in 2000 to 73% in 2019.

Figure 4.2 

Inland freight transport by mode in billion tonne‑kilometres and road transport share in the  
EU‑27, 2000‑2019

Billion tkm

2,500

68

69

70

70

71

71

71

71

71

72

71

70

70

70

70

71

71

72

72

73

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Road

Rail

Inland waterway

Oil pipeline

Modal share road(percentage)

Note: 

tkm: tonne-kilometre.

Source: 

EC (2021f).

36

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandTransport activity and modal shares

Important general determinants of freight transport demand 
are economic growth and the development of international 

trade. For example, the impacts of the financial/economic 

significantly more than transporting goods by either rail 

or ship.

crisis of 2008 are clearly visible in the freight transport 

For both passenger and freight transport the GHG savings 

volumes (Figure 4.2). Freight transport choices form part 
of a broader logistical system. The set-up of this broader 
system and the transport choices within it depends on various 

that can be obtained by a modal shift depend on the 

occupancy rate/load factor of the vehicles, as well as the 

vehicle technologies that are being compared. The comparison 

factors: e.g., the costs and other attributes of the different 

below is based on technologies that were used in the period 

components, including transport costs, warehousing costs, 

considered, and on average occupancy rates and load factors. 

and reliability considerations. These factors can in turn be 
influenced by policies.

The occupancy rates of the passenger modes can vary widely as 

a function of the time of day or the route taken, and for freight 

transport also of the load factor.

The EU Reference Scenario 2020 (EC, 2021e) projects that, with 
existing policies, there will be an increase in the modal share 

An analysis of WTW emissions provides only part of the 

of rail at the expense of other modes. The three core policy 

picture. In a life cycle analysis (LCA) all sources of emissions 

scenarios that are used as the basis for the impact assessments 

in the product life cycle are considered: those associated with 

of the Fit for 55 package project a further increase in the share 

the production, maintenance and disposal of vehicles, and 

of the more sustainable modes, thanks to varying combinations 

those caused by the construction, maintenance and operation 

of transport policies and carbon pricing.

of the transport infrastructure. This broader view can help 

ensure that reducing one GHG source does not create another 

The COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to concerns about the 

problem elsewhere.

functioning of global value chains. This has led to an increased 

interest in bringing production activities closer to where the 

An LCA for regional and long-distance passenger transport 

goods are consumed. Analysis of the economic and political 

modes in Germany (Allekotte et al., 2020) showed that the 

pros and cons of such developments is ongoing, e.g. Raza 

ranking between modes does not change by taking the 

et al. (2021). The necessity for a transition to a more circular 

LCA perspective rather than the WTW perspective. The 

economy also fuels interest in local production-consumption 

infrastructure-and vehicle-related climate impacts per 

chains, shorter supply chains, reuse, and digital 

passenger-kilometre are the highest for passenger cars. For 

manufacturing. If such changes take place at a large scale, 

bicycles, the vehicle-related impacts are the most important 

they could have fundamental implications for freight transport 

impact category, but their climate impact remains small. For the 

volumes (ITF, 2019).

4.3.3 

The potential of a modal shift to reduce 
greenhouse gas emissions

rail modes, the climate impacts related to the infrastructure are 

higher than those related to the vehicles, while the opposite is 
the case for the road modes and aviation. The CO2 embedded 
in the rail infrastructure construction will be higher for railway 

lines with a lot of tunnels and bridges than for others, and will 

therefore be country specific (IEA, 2019b).

One of the means to reduce GHG emissions from transport 
is to shift to the least GHG‑emitting transport modes 
and to non-motorised modes such as cycling and walking. 

Regarding freight transport, the life cycle climate impact per 

tonne-kilometre is the highest for aviation, followed by road 

Figure 4.3 and Figure 4.4 compare the well-to-wheel (WTW) 

freight transport. The overall impact is the smallest for inland 

GHG emissions of different motorised passenger and freight 
transport modes. Passenger cars have among the highest 

waterways and rail transport. WTW emissions constitute 
the bulk of the impact; thus, conducting a full LCA does not 

WTW GHG emissions per passenger-kilometre, together 

change the ranking between modes obtained with the WTW 

with aviation. Thus, shifting to other modes can help to 

analysis. Rail has the highest relative impact of emissions 

reduce GHG emissions from passenger transport. For freight 

related to infrastructure.

transport, the differences between the modes are much 

larger: carrying cargo by road (using heavy goods vehicles) 

GHG emissions are an important element in the sustainability 

emits significantly less GHG than air cargo. However, it emits 

analysis of the different transport modes. Transport has 

37

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandTransport activity and modal shares

other impacts, both on the environment and on human 

As well as the motorised modes of transport, non-motorised 

health: air pollution, noise, accidents, habitat damage. When 

modes, such as cycling and walking, can play a role. These 

these broader environment- and accident-related externality 

active travel modes offer the potential to significantly 

costs of the main transport modes are also considered, 

reduce GHG emissions, particularly in urban areas (Brand 

cars have a higher additional impact than bus and rail, per 

et al., 2021). During the COVID-19 pandemic, many cities 

passenger-kilometre. For freight transport, heavy goods 

took initiatives to improve the conditions for walking and 

vehicles have a higher overall impact than rail and inland 

cycling, which may form the basis of more permanent 

waterways (EC, 2019b).

strategies (Nikitas et al., 2021). 

Figure 4.3 

Average GHG emissions (gCO2e per passenger-km), well-to-wheel, for passenger transport in the 
EU‑27, 2018

gCO2e per passenger-kilometre

160

143

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

80

61

33

Passenger ﬂights

Passenger cars

Buses and coaches

Maritime passenger

Passenger trains

Note: 

Implied car occupancy rate: 1.6.

Source: 

EEA (2021h).

38

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandTransport activity and modal shares

Figure 4.4 

Average GHG emissions (gCO2e per tonne-km), well-to-wheel, for freight transport in the  
EU‑27, 2018

gCO2e per tonne-kilometre

1036

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

137

33

24

7

Air cargo

Heavy goods vehicles

Inland waterways

Rail freight

Maritime shipping

Source: 

EEA (2021h).

39

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand© Stella Carbone, ImagineAIR/EEA

5 
The CO2 performance of cars, 
vans and heavy goods vehicles 
in the EU

Key messages

• 

• 

• 

• 

Since 2009, the carbon dioxide emission performance standards for new cars and vans have gradually been 
tightened in the EU. For new trucks, the first standards were adopted in 2019. The approach taken in the 
regulations enables manufacturers to choose the most efficient way to comply. The impact of the standards is 
visible in the trends in the carbon dioxide emission performance of new cars and vans sold in the EU, especially at 
key target milestone years.

Sales of electric vehicles (battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) have surged since 2017, 
tripling in 2020 when new targets started to apply. The number of new electric vehicles sold differs significantly 
across EU Member States. Up until now, the highest sales volumes had been recorded in countries with a relatively 
high gross domestic product per capita. Among Member States with similar income levels, the differences in 
electric vehicle uptake are partly explained by variation in national and local policy measures.

The carbon dioxide efficiency of the entire vehicle stock has also improved, for both cars and heavy goods vehicles. 
For the latter, this is partly explained by improvements in fuel efficiency and in operational efficiency.

To reach the 2030 and 2050 climate targets, an increase in the share of electric vehicles in the vehicle stock will be 
necessary. Bottlenecks that could hamper future electrification are the provision of a charging infrastructure, the 
need to accommodate the electricity demand of electric vehicles and the supply of raw materials for batteries. 
Emerging innovative solutions, as well as existing and proposed legislation, could help to deal with these bottlenecks.

5.1 

Introduction

of both new vehicles and the vehicle stock, and the underlying 

The decomposition analysis showed that improved vehicle 

determinants.

energy efficiency (energy consumed per kilometre), is one of the 

The decomposition analysis also included the electrification 

main factors limiting the increase in road transport greenhouse 

factor (the share of electricity in road transport energy use) to 

gas (GHG) emissions. Vehicle efficiency improvements can be 

capture the growing share of zero and low emission vehicles 

achieved by developing new vehicle technologies and increasing 

(ZLEVs). This has not yet had a substantial impact on emissions 

the uptake of existing technologies, in which policies play an 

but is expected to increase rapidly in the coming years. This 

important role. This chapter looks in more detail at EU policy 

chapter therefore also discusses recent developments in the 

aimed specifically at improving vehicle efficiency, in particular 
the EU carbon dioxide (CO2) emission performance standards 
for new vehicles. It analyses the trends in emission performance 

electrification of road vehicles. The scope in this chapter is 
limited to the exhaust CO2 emissions of vehicles. The upstream 
emissions of electricity production are discussed in Chapter 6.

41

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

5.2 

Policy framework

5.2.1  Vehicle CO2 standards in the EU

(Figure 5.1). As a first step, it covers large trucks, which account 
for 65-70% of all CO2 emissions from HDVs. The regulation sets 
EU fleet-wide targets for reducing the average CO2 emissions 
from such new trucks:

In 1998 the European Commission and the European 

Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) signed a 
voluntary agreement in which ACEA committed to achieving 
an emissions objective of 140 g CO2/km for new passenger 
cars by 2008. Voluntary commitments from Japanese and 

• 

from 2025, a reduction of 15% compared with the reference 

period (1 July 2019 to 30 June 2020);

• 

from 2030 onwards, a 30% reduction compared with the 

Korean manufacturers included reaching the same target 

same reference period.

by 2009.

However, in 2008 the average emission rate of new cars was 
154 g CO2/km, significantly above the target (EEA, 2010). The lack 
of progress motivated the introduction of a regulation (EU, 2009b), 
which aimed to control the average emissions of new cars 
registered in the EU by setting mandatory EU fleet-wide targets 
for new cars, which were gradually tightened: from 130 g CO2/km 
in 2015 (with a phase-in from 2012) to 95 g CO2/km in 2021 (with 
a phase-in from 2020). In 2011, a similar regulation was adopted 
for new light commercial vehicles (vans) (EU, 2011), setting an 
EU fleet-wide target for the average CO2 emissions of new vans 
at 175 g CO2/km in 2017 (with a phase-in from 2014), reducing to 
147 g CO2/km in 2020 (see Figure 5.1).

In January 2020, these two regulations were replaced by a 
new standards regulation (EU, 2019c), which covers both 
new passenger cars and new light commercial vehicles 
(Figure 5.1). This regulation maintains the 2020 targets set out 

in the previous regulations and introduces new EU fleet-wide 

targets for 2025 and 2030, which are defined as a percentage 

reduction of the 2021 starting point:

• 

for new passenger cars — a 15% reduction from 2025 

onwards and a 37.5% reduction from 2030 onwards;

The European Commission will assess extending the scope to 

other vehicle types such as smaller trucks, buses, coaches and 

trailers as part of its review envisaged for 2022.

The regulation for HDVs sets targets following the same 
principles as the legislation for cars and vans. The targets 

concern the fleet-wide average of manufacturers' new trucks. 

The regulation also includes an incentive mechanism for 

ZLEVs (EC, 2021p).

To monitor the performance of new vehicles, Member States 

collect data each year on newly registered passenger cars and 
vans, including their CO2 emissions, and submit them to the 
European Commission. Data on new HDVs are collected and 

reported by both vehicle manufacturers and Member States.

There are no CO2 standards for light vehicles such a mopeds, 
motorbikes and quad bikes.

In the Fit for 55 package, the European Commission proposes a 
revision of the CO2 standards for cars and vans, with a view 
to ensuring a clear pathway towards zero emission mobility. 
The proposal encompasses a revised 2030 EU fleet-wide CO2 
target of -55% for new cars and -50% for new vans. From 2035 

onwards, the proposed target for both new cars and vans is  

• 

for new light commercial vehicles — a 15% reduction from 

0 g/km (EC, 2021n).

2025 onwards and a 31% reduction from 2030 onwards.

Compared with other regions in the world, the targets set 

The binding CO2 targets set in the regulation for new cars and 
vans apply for the EU fleet‑wide average emissions of each 
manufacturer's newly registered vehicles, not for each individual 

in the EU are already the most ambitious. The EU, Japan 
and South Korea have set mandatory new car CO2 emission 
targets up to the year 2030 (Table 5.1), with the EU having the 

new vehicle. This regulation also includes sales benchmarks for 
ZLEVs. From 2025 onwards, the specific CO2 emission target of 
a manufacturer will be relaxed if its share of ZLEVs registered 

exceeds the benchmarks.

For heavy‑duty vehicles (HDVs) a regulation setting the first 
EU CO2 emission standards (EU, 2019d) was adopted in 2019 

most ambitious targets in place for that year (ICCT, 2021). All 

manufacturers selling cars in the EU must comply with the EU 

standard. This creates a potential spill-over effect to the rest of 

the world. As the research and development (R&D) undertaken 

for the EU market lowers the costs of abatement technologies, 

this may also have beneficial effects for those costs in other 

world regions (Barla and Proost, 2012).

42

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

Figure 5.1 

Timeline showing the introduction of CO2 standards and complementary regulation

CO2 performance standards
for new vehicles

Voluntary 
agreement

1999

1998

Car Labelling Directive
1999/94/EC

Complementary policies

Regulation (EC) No 443/2009
CO2 emission performance 
standards for new cars 

Regulation (EU) 2019/631
CO2 emission performance 
standards for new cars and LCV

Proposal for a Regulation
COM(2021)556 ﬁnal
CO2 emission performance 
standards for cars and LCV

Regulation (EU) No 510/2011
CO2 emission performance 
standards for new LCV

Regulation (EU) 2019/1242
CO2 emission performance
standards for new HDV

2022: Proposal expected 
CO2 emission performance
standards for new HDV

2009

2011

2019

2021

2022

2014

2018

Alternative Fuels 
Infrastructure Directive
2014/94/EU

Proposal for a Regulation 
on Deployment of Alternative
Fuels Infrastructure (AFIR)
COM(2021)559 ﬁnal

Building codes for 
enabling charging 
infrastructure for EV
Directive (EU) 2018/844

Note: 

CO2 performance standards for new vehicles (orange boxes) and the complementary policies (green boxes).
HDV, heavy-duty vehicle, LCV, light commercial vehicle.

Source: 

EEA compilation.

Table 5.1 

Comparison of global CO2 emission targets for new passenger cars, normalised to the New 
European Driving Cycle

World region

EU

Japan

South Korea

United States

Canada

China

Brazil

India

Saudi Arabia

Mexico

Target year

Target CO2 value (g/km)

2030

2030

2030

2026

2025

2025

2022

2022

2020

2018

59

74

65

108

99

93

128

113

142

145

Note: 

Regulatory targets are converted to values achieved under the New European DrivingCycle test cycle to make them comparable with 
those of the EU.

Source: 

Based on ICCT (2021).

43

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand 
The CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

5.2.2 

Implementation mechanisms for the CO2 
emission standards

The system envisaged in the CO2 emission standard regulations 
provides flexibility (see Box 5.1) for manufacturers to decide 
how to comply and thus enhance the cost‑efficiency of 
achieving the standards (Littlejohn and Proost, 2019; KU Leuven, 

2020). The manufacturers can decide how much to invest in 

R&D to improve internal combustion engine vehicle efficiency 

and/or to invest in innovation to make electric vehicles cheaper 

and/or better performing than at present.

An analysis of manufacturers' strategies shows that the actual 
reductions in CO2 emissions that took place in the EU car market 
between 1998 and 2011 were achieved mainly by adopting 

technologies that improve the fuel efficiency of the vehicle fleet 

(Reynaert, 2021). During that period, other strategies available 

to manufacturers, such as a shift in the sales mix towards 
vehicles with CO2 emissions below the target or an increase 
in the share of smaller and more fuel-efficient vehicles, were 

CO2 emissions subject to targets are determined in laboratory 
testing (see Box 5.2). In the past, it has been observed that 

manufacturers have achieved their targets partly by optimising 

their vehicle emissions under the test cycle, rather than 

aiming to reduce on-road emissions. That is why a new testing 

procedure, the World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure 

(WLTP), has been developed (Lin and Linn, 2019). For cars 
and vans, the officially reported CO2 emissions up to 2020 are 
based on measurements using the New European Driving Cycle 
(NEDC), but since 2018 countries have also started to report 
CO2 emissions based on the WLTP, which better represents 
real-world driving conditions. From 2021 onwards, compliance 

assessment will be fully based on the WLTP data.

To prevent an increasing gap between tested and real-

world emissions, from 2022 the European Commission 
will regularly collect data on real-world CO2 emissions and 
energy consumption, using on-board fuel consumption 

monitoring devices. A new implementing regulation sets out 

the rules for data gathering via manufacturers and national 

less important.

authorities (EU, 2021b).

Box 5.1 

Implementation modalities for manufacturers — CO2 standards for cars and vans

• 

• 

Several manufacturers may form a pool and will then be considered a single manufacturer with one common target, 
calculated on the basis of the whole fleet of the pool registered that year.

For each manufacturer or pool, the specific CO2 emission target for a given year depends on the average mass of its 
fleet of vehicles newly registered in that year. For manufacturers/pools with a higher average mass, the target will be 
higher (i.e. more lenient) and for those with a lower average mass, the target will be more stringent.

•  Manufacturers can claim eco-innovation credits for using certain innovative technologies that produce CO2 emission 
savings on the road, but not during the test (such as light-emitting diode (LED) headlamps which are switched off 
during the test procedure).

• 

The regulation provides for the allocation of supercredits for new passenger cars with CO2 emissions lower than 
50 g CO2/km. Until 2022, these vehicles are given a greater weight when calculating the average specific emissions 
of a manufacturer. However, over the period 2020-2022, the use of super-credits is subject to a cap of 7.5 g CO2/km 
for each manufacturer. Most manufacturers had already exhausted these credits in 2020. For vans, no supercredit 
scheme has existed since 2018.

•  Manufacturers selling fewer than 10 000 cars/year or fewer than 22 000 vans/year can apply for a derogation and be 

granted a specific target consistent with their economic and technological potential.

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Box 5.2 

Laboratory test emissions and real‑world emissions

The New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) is a test cycle that has been used since the 1990s to determine the fuel 
consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of new cars in Europe. It defines the laboratory testing conditions, such 
as the speed trace, tyre pressure and ambient temperature, to ensure a high level of reproducibility of the test results. 
However, research demonstrated that the real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are significantly higher than 
the NEDC levels, and that this gap increased over time, from 8% in 2001 to 39% by 2017. This means that the average 
real-world CO2 emissions in 2017 were 39% higher than the official NEDC value (Dornoff et al., 2020).

The EU recognised this problem and in 2017 introduced the World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) 
driving cycle, as developed by the United Nations. The WLTP driving cycle is more representative of real-world 
conditions because it includes a greater range of driving situations, more dynamic and representative accelerations and 
decelerations, more realistic driving behaviour, more realistic vehicle test mass, and stricter test conditions that better 
represent real-world driving conditions (EEA, 2020b). Based on preliminary data for 2020 the International Council on 
Clean Transportation found that WLTP-measured CO2 emissions are on average 21% higher than their respective NEDC 
values (Tietge et al., 2021). WLTP-tested and real-world emission levels reported by drivers show that there is still a gap 
(Dornoff et al., 2020), although it is smaller than with the NEDC test cycle.

For plug‑in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) the divergence between real-world and officially tested emissions largely depends on 
the share of kilometres driven on electricity. It has been found that average PHEV fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are 
two to four times higher in real‑world driving than in the NEDC test (Dornoff et al., 2020).

5.2.3  Complementary legislation concerning vehicles 

systems are not harmonised with minimum requirements, 

and alternative fuel infrastructure

there is inadequate information for users and the available 

Complementary to the CO2 emission standards, the Car 
Labelling Directive (EU, 1999) requires Member States to 
ensure that relevant information on cars' fuel efficiency and CO2 
emissions is provided to consumers.

EU funds are not directed to where they are most needed. It 

concludes that the EU is still a long way off the 2019 European 

Green Deal target of 1 million recharging points by 2025 

(ECA, 2021). According to the European Alternative Fuels 

Observatory (EAFO), in 2020 the number of public recharging 

points was around 224 200 in the EU, of which 11% were fast 

Electric vehicles require a charging infrastructure and not all 
EU citizens have access to a recharging point at home. More 

chargers (≥22 kW) (EAFO, 2021a). However, their geographical 

distribution is uneven, a problem that is likely to remain and 

charging stations increase the attractiveness of an electric 

may even increase (EC, 2021g). Moreover, the EAFO data point 

vehicle (EV), and if there are more EVs, it is more profitable to 

to an increasing number of EVs per public recharging point over 

supply charging stations. The EU is taking initiatives to increase 
the extent of the charging infrastructure. The Alternative Fuel 
Infrastructure Directive (AFID) (EU, 2014) required Member 
States to put in place development plans for alternative fuels 

infrastructures. The optimal number of publicly accessible 
recharging points depends on location-specific factors such 

time, as the number of EV registrations has grown more rapidly 

than the number of public recharging points (EC, 2021q).

New legislative proposals that were released in the Fit for 
55 package step up the ambition. A review of the AFID is 
proposed, shifting the legal tool to a regulation. It adds specific 

as travel patterns, the number of battery electric vehicles 

fleet-based targets for charging power for EVs, requires the 

(BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), the number 

installation of charging and fuelling points at regular intervals 

of EV owners with a dedicated private recharging point and 

on major roads, mandates targets for the hydrogen as well as 

with access to recharging points at the workplace. The AFID 

liquefied/ compressed natural gas infrastructure, and reinforces 

indicatively mentioned that one public recharging point was 

the governance for progress monitoring (EC, 2021o). The 

needed for every 10 EVs.

review of the AFID is also relevant for the initiative to revise the 

regulation on the guidelines for the Trans-European Transport 

A recent European Commission report indicates that there is 

Network (EC, 2021g).

some progress in the implementation of the AFID (EC, 2021q), 

but concludes that there is not yet a comprehensive and 

complete network of alternative fuels infrastructures. An 

evaluation by the European Court of Auditors published in 2021 

found that despite successes (such as promoting a common 
EU plug standard) important obstacles remain: the availability 
of charging stations varies widely between countries, payment 

Other policies that can contribute to removing the barriers to 
EV development are building codes for installing charging 
infrastructure. The 2018 revision of the EU Directive on 
the energy performance of buildings or EPBD (EU, 2018a) 

includes measures to ensure that buildings' car parks will 

be progressively equipped with recharging points for EVs. 

45

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

The EPBD includes provisions to equip new or renovated 

buildings with the dedicated infrastructure (power line ducting) 

suitable for the subsequent installation of recharging points. 

It also asks Member States to lay down requirements for the 

installation of a minimum number of recharging points, for all 

5.3 

Trends in the CO2 performance of 
new vehicles

The CO2 emissions from vehicles have been monitored 
for the longest time for passenger cars, hence most 

non-residential buildings with more than 20 parking spaces (by 

information on trends and manufacturer approaches is 

1 January 2025) and to simplify the deployment of recharging 

available for this segment.

points in buildings, e.g. in relation to permitting and approval 

procedures. The ongoing revision of the EPBD is looking at 

reinforcing that buildings should be suitable for EVs, including 

As shown in Figure 5.2, in the early 2000s the CO2 
emissions of new passenger cars fell slowly. In 

smart charging requirements (EC, 2021c).

anticipation of the adoption of the 2009 regulation and 

Lastly, public procurement can be a relevant complementary 
policy. The Clean Vehicles Directive (as revised in 2019) promotes 
clean mobility solutions in public procurement tenders (EU, 2019b). 

This has the double benefit of demonstrating the technology to the 

public (leading by example) and allowing the industry to produce 

and deliver bulk orders to initiate economies of scale. The revised 

Clean Vehicles Directive aims to accelerate the adoption of electric 

buses (and other publicly procured vehicles) in EU countries, 

setting specific targets for 2025 and 2030.

afterwards, emissions started decreasing more rapidly. 

However, once the 2015 target had been reached, the 

average emissions of new cars started increasing again, 
reaching 122.3 g CO2/km in 2019. In 2019, almost all 
car manufacturers achieved their specific emission 

targets, either individually or as part of a pool or because 
of derogations (EEA, 2021c). In 2020, the average 
emissions of new passenger cars decreased sharply 
to 107.8 g CO2/km (EEA, 2021i).

Figure 5.2 

Average CO2 emissions per kilometre (NEDC) for new passenger cars, 2000-2020

gCO2/km

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

130

95

80.8

59.4

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

EU ﬂeet-wide target for new passenger cars
Average CO2 emissions from new passenger cars

Indicative EU ﬂeet-wide target for new passenger cars

Start car regulation

Note: 

Provisional data for 2020. Coverage: Exhaust emissions; European Union, Iceland, Norway, and the UK.

Source: 

EEA (2021c, 2021i).

46

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

The increase in emissions between 2017 and 2019 was 
mostly due to the increase in the share of sport utility 
vehicles (SUVs) and other larger and heavier cars. In 2007, 
SUVs had a market share of 8% of all new passenger cars. 

This increased to 26% in 2016 and 38% in 2019 (EEA, 2020b, 
2021c). In 2019, a newly registered petrol SUV emitted about 
13 g CO2/ km more than the average new non-SUV petrol car. In 
the period 2017-2019 the trend towards SUVs and other larger 

interim target set for 2017. After declining until 2017, the 

averages increased slightly in 2018-2019 due to an increase 

in the average mass, engine capacity and size of the vans 
(EEA, 2021g). Based on provisional data, the trend reversed 
in 2020 and the average emissions of new vans decreased to 
157.7 g CO2/km (EEA, 2021i). In 2020, the share of electric vans 
in sales of new vans increased to 2.3%, from 1.4% in 2019.

and heavier cars more than compensated for the reduction 
in CO2 emissions obtained through the efficiency gains in 
conventional petrol and diesel cars and the modest uptake of 

These trends indicate that the CO2 emission standards 
regulations contributed to the decrease in the average CO2 
emissions of new cars and vans.

electric cars. In 2019 BEVs and PHEVs together represented only 

3.5% of new registrations.

The CO2 performance of HDVs has been monitored since 
mid-2019 (EEA, 2021f)buses and trailers registered in their 

The trend reversal in 2020 can be explained by the surge in the 

territory. Manufacturers report trucks of specific types that are 

share of electric cars in new car registrations, which tripled in 

subject to certification requirements. The reporting periods are 

1 year to reach around 11%, as the new stricter targets were 

annual and run from 1st July to 30 June the following year. One 

phased in. Moreover, country-specific policies to promote 

exception was the first reporting which covered 1st January 

ZLEVs, including those linked to the post-COVID-19 recovery 

2019 to 30 June 2020. In addition, the dataset covers the 

plans, are considered to have had a significant impact.

The trend in the CO2 emission performance of new vans 
(Figure 5.3), is similar to that of cars, showing a decreasing 
trend after the introduction of the target to reach the 

United Kingdom and Norway who reported data in line with 
the Regulation (EU. The average specific CO2 emissions of all 
new HDVs registered in the EU from 2019 to mid-2020 was 
52.75 g CO2/tonne-kilometre (EU, 2021a). This will serve as the 
baseline for the 2025 and 2030 targets.

Figure 5.3 

Average CO2 emissions per kilometre (NEDC) for new vans in the EU, 2012-2020

175

147

125

103

gCO2/km

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Average CO2 emissions from new vans

EU ﬂeet-wide target for new vans

Indicative EU ﬂeet-wide target for new vans

Note: 

Provisional data for 2020. Coverage: Exhaust emissions; European Union, Iceland, Norway,and the UK.

Source: 

EEA (2021g, 2021i).

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

5.4 

Trends in the CO2 emission performance of 
the vehicle stock

An indication of the performance of the EU vehicle stock is 

the evolution of the energy efficiency of the vehicle stock, 

The EU CO2 emission standards apply to new vehicles only. 
However, the CO2 emission standards for new cars have an 
impact on the cars that will be traded on the second-hand 
market in later years. The CO2 emission performance 
of the vehicle stock depends on the performance of the 
individual vehicles comprising the vehicle stock. In each year, 

a factor that was considered in the decomposition analysis 

presented in Chapter 3. As shown in Figure 5.4, until 2008 the 

energy consumption of passenger cars grew at approximately 

the same rate as the passenger-kilometres travelled, and 

consequently energy efficiency remained almost constant. 
Since 2008, when the CO2 emission standards for new cars 
were introduced, the energy consumption per car passenger-

the vehicle stock changes as some vehicles are scrapped 

kilometre decreased and in 2019 it was 6.3% lower than in 2000.

or exported, and new vehicles and imported second-hand 

vehicles are added (to replace vehicles or as additional 
vehicles). Given the gradually improving CO2 emission 
performance of new vehicles, the annual renewal and 

Comparing the evolution of energy consumption and the 
tonne-kilometres transported by road freight (5), energy 
efficiency had also increased in 2019 compared with 2000, with 

scrappage rates have a strong influence on the performance 

fluctuations over time (Figure 5.5). Energy consumption per 

of the stock.

tonne-kilometre in 2019 was 15% lower than in 2000.

Figure 5.4 

Trend in energy efficiency of passenger car transport in the EU‑27, 2000‑2019

Index (2000=1.0)

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.0

Passenger-km

Energy consumption

Energy consumption/passenger-km

2000

2005

2010

2015

2019

Note: 

The energy consumption covers fossil fuels, biofuels and electricity.

Source: 

EEA compilation based on greenhouse gas emissions inventory and energy balances for the EU-27 (EEA, 2021; Eurostat, 2021, EC, 2021f).

(5) 

 The values for HGVs have more uncertainty than those for passenger cars. The share of HGVs in the energy consumption reported in the GHG 
emissions inventory for heavy-duty trucks and buses is based on the historical data underpinning the EU Reference Scenario 2020.

48

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

Figure 5.5 

Trend in energy efficiency of transport by heavy goods vehicles in the EU‑27, 2000‑2019

Index (2000=1.0)

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.0

2000

Tonne-km

Energy consumption

Energy consumption/tonne-km

2005

2010

2015

2019

Note: 

Road tonne-kilometre: national and international haulage by vehicles registered in the EU-27 until 2004. From 2005 onwards, it refers to 
activity undertaken by European drivers within the EU territory.

Source: 

EEA compilation based on greenhouse gas emissions inventory for the EU-27 (EEA and EC DG Climate Action, 2021; EC, 2021e, 2021f).

Improved efficiency of individual vehicles is likely to play 

Between 2008 and 2019, the average load factor increased 

a role in this development. International trucks drive 

from 11 to 11.5 tonne/vehicle-kilometre and the share of 

large distances, and the fuel cost is a significant part of 

loaded kilometres increased from 77.7% to 80. % (Figure 5.6).

the total cost. Therefore, firms have a strong incentive to 

improve fuel efficiency. In addition, some of the reduced 

fuel consumption per tonne-kilometre can be explained by 
the improvement in the efficiency of transport by trucks. 

For freight transport, it is not yet known what impact the CO2 
emission standards will have.

49

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

Figure 5.6 

Trend in the load factor in road freight transport and the share of loaded vehicle kilometres in the 
EU‑27, 2008‑2019

Index (2008=1.0)

1.1

1.0

78.0

11.0

0.9

11.5

80.0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Share of loaded vehicle-km(index)

Load factor(index)

Share of loaded vehicle-km(absolute value in percentage)

Load factor(absolute value in tonne/vehicle-km)

Note: 

Data for total road freight transport: national + international transport; load factor calculated as the ratio between tonne-kilometres and 
vehicle-kilometres.

Source: 

EEA compilation based on Eurostat, 2021b (indicator road_go_ta_tott).

5.5	

The	electrification	of	road	transport	
and its importance for future trends in 
greenhouse gas emissions

for cars and vans that are proposed in the Fit for 55 package. 

According to the Commission proposal, all new cars and vans 

registered from 2035 would have to have zero emissions. 

In addition, the proposal for the revised Alternative Fuels 

The contribution of road transport electrification to 

Infrastructure Regulation requires Member States to expand 

decarbonisation was limited until 2019, but EU ambitions are 
high. This is reflected in the stronger CO2 emissions standards 

charging capacity and to install charging and fuelling points at 
regular intervals on major roads (EC, 2021n, 2021o).

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

Box 5.3 

Electric vehicle types

Several types of vehicles may be referred to as 'electric vehicles' or Evs:

• 

• 

• 

Battery electric vehicle (BEV): powered solely by an electric motor, using electricity stored in an on-board battery which 
has to be charged, typically by plugging the vehicle in to a recharging point connected to the local electricity grid.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV): powered by an electric motor and an internal combustion engine designed to 
work either together or separately. The on-board battery can be charged from the grid, and the combustion engine 
supports the electric motor when more operating power is required or when the battery's charge is low.

Fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV): entirely propelled by electricity, which is generated on board by a fuel cell stack that 
uses hydrogen, which has to be carried in a tank.

In this context, vehicles that combine an internal combustion engine and an electric motor assisting the conventional 
engine, but that cannot be charged from the grid, are not regarded as electric vehicles.

FCEVs can provide longer ranges than BEVs and the time it takes to refuel is similar to that of internal combustion engine 
vehicles. The drawbacks are the high costs, mainly due to the expensive fuel cells, and their lower efficiency than BEVs. 
Currently, few FCEVs are offered for sale on the EU market and the refuelling infrastructure is less developed than that for 
electric cars (JRC and DG Mobility and Transport, 2020). 

5.5.1 

Trends in the sales and the stock of electric 
vehicles

Recent literature (Carroll, 2021; Nykvist and Olsson, 

2021) suggests that electrification might also become an 

economically feasible option for heavy trucks soon. For this to 

In the EU, new registrations of electric cars have been increasing 

happen, the rapid fall in the cost of batteries and increase in 

steadily in recent years, with an acceleration in 2020, when the 

their lifetime needs to continue. The second condition would 

share of electric vehicles among new EU registrations tripled 

be a dense network of fast charging infrastructure, which 

compared with 2019 (Figure 5.7).

would allow charging on average every 4.5 hours, in line with 

EU regulations on mandatory rests for drivers, and smaller 

As a share of the total car stock, however, they remain at under 

batteries could be used. Detailed vehicle simulations by the 

1%. In 2020 BEVs and PHEVs together represented 0.87% of the 

International Council on Clean Transport show that, with a 

EU car stock (EAFO, 2021b).

700-kWh battery energy capacity, a 500-km driving range can 

be obtained in future, which should suffice for a large share of 

Among vans and HDVs, the electrification rate of new vehicles 

operations. The loss of load capacity due to the presence of a 

is increasing but remains moderate compared with that of 
passenger cars. Among the HDVs, electrification is most 
widespread in buses. In this segment the share of electrically 

battery is estimated to be small and expected to disappear in 

future (Basma et al., 2021).

chargeable vehicles in the total sales of new vehicles is 
significant, at 6% in 2020; however, this share is far lower for 

Another option for long-haul freight is a system of overhead 
catenary wires on main roads, supplying trucks with 

vans and trucks (Figure 5.8).

Electrification of heavy trucks is difficult, because of the 
challenge of competing with the long range of diesel trucks. 

electricity. Intelligent pantographs are being used in European 

demonstration projects, for example the eHighways project, 

with tests in Sweden and Germany (JRC and DG Mobility and 

Transport, 2020).

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

Figure 5.7 

Electric car registrations (left axis) and share of electric cars in the total car stock (right axis) in the 
EU‑27, 2008‑2020

Number of car registrations

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.03

0.06

0.31

0.22

0.11

0.15

5
1

130
2

802
2

8014
329

12716
8025

21231
24922

31013
25485

131939
108197

48457
71186

53147
65387

82669
86446

0.87

527044
514167

0.46

246788
140422

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Registrations of battery electric vehicles

Registrations of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

Electric vehicles share(percentage:share of total car stock)

Source: 

EEA compilation based on EAFO (2021b).

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

Figure 5.8 

Share of electrically chargeable vans, buses and trucks in new vehicle sales in the EU‑27, 2018‑2020

Percentage

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Buses

2018

Vans

2019

2020

Trucks

Source: 

ACEA (2021b).

5.5.2 

Impact of policies on the uptake of electric 
vehicles

The recent development of the European EV market is strongly 
influenced by the EU CO2 emission performance standards 
(Wappelhorst, 2021a). The fleet-wide target of 95 g CO2/km 
for new cars has applied since 2020 (the target until 2019 was 
130 g CO2/km). As only a few vehicles with internal combustion 
engines have emissions below 95 g CO2/km, the target is very 
hard to meet without a significant share of Evs (6). Next to the 
EU standards, in 2020/2021 COVID-19 recovery measures have 

The uptake of Evs in the EU-27 is concentrated in a small 
number of countries (Figure 5.9). In 2020, five EU countries 
with the highest number of electric cars, together accounted 

for 75% of the electric car stock (EAFO, 2021b): Germany, 

France, the Netherlands, Sweden and Belgium. In terms 
of the EV share in the car stock the five countries with the 
highest share are Sweden (3.7%), the Netherlands (3.2%), 

Denmark (2.1%), Luxembourg (2.0%) and Belgium (1.8%). In 
recent years, sales of Evs have mainly been concentrated 

in European countries with a relatively high GDP per capita 

(ACEA, 2021a), where more people can afford to buy an 

also been important in incentivising investments in electric 

electric car given the existing policies. Among countries 

mobility. This is one of the reasons why the EV segment was 

with similar income levels, variation in national and local 

less severely hit by the pandemic than the overall automotive 

measures also explains part of the difference in EV uptake 

sector (de Vet et al., 2021).

(Wappelhorst, 2021a, 2021b).

(6) 

 The phase-in provision permitted only the 95% best-performing cars of each manufacturer (or pool) to be considered for the target in 2020; for 
cars registered in 2021, 100% of the new cars will be considered.

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

Figure 5.9 

Total and share of electric passenger car stock in the EU‑27 by December 2020

Germany

France

Netherlands

Sweden

Italy

Spain

Austria

Portugal

Belgium

Denmark

Ireland

Finland

Czechia

Poland

Hungary

Romania

Luxembourg

Slovenia

Lithuania

Malta

Slovakia

Estonia

Bulgaria

Croatia

Greece

Latvia

Cyprus

100,371

132,309

132,440

172,524

58,240

55,307

44,212

45,057
43,481

41,646

14,545

36882

27,710

33,703

30,516

26,749

11,278
9,659

9,697

45,620

74,988

7,109

2,726

6,556
5,919

6,101
4,652

5,563

1,847

4,032
4,516

3,665
792

1,945
1,559

1,934
637

1,863
1,643

1,769
256

1,404
953

1,353
553

1,104
2,031

846
196

251
320

308,139

287,037

277,001

1.2

1.3

3.2

3.8

0.3

0.4

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.1

0.9

1.5

2.0

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.4

0.4

0.8

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Number of cars 

Battery electric vehicles

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

Electric vehicle share(percentage:share of total car stock)

Source: 

EEA compilation based on EAFO (2021b).

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

Everything else being equal, car manufacturers will focus on the 

engine (ICEVs), national and local policies might have less effect 

markets with EV-friendly policies in their supply side decisions. 
As the EU CO2 emission targets apply for the EU fleet-wide 
average emissions of each manufacturer's newly registered 

vehicles, such national and local EV policies will affect the 

on the total number of EVs In the EU (KU Leuven, 2020). Table 5.2 

lists examples of national policies that support Evs or the 

charging infrastructure in EU countries with high EV sales.

distribution of the Evs that are required to meet the target across 

There is little evidence of policies specifically directed at the 

individual Member States. As long as the targets can be met by 

electrification of vans and HDVs, as those policies are only 

a combination of Evs and vehicles with an internal combustion 

starting to be introduced.

Table 5.2 

Examples of national and local EV policies

Country

Measures to support EV uptake

Measures to supply recharging 
infrastructure

Germany

•  Financial benefits: purchase bonus (also for used, 

•  National and local grants for private 

second-hand Evs), exemption from ownership tax, lower 
taxable amount for electric company cars than ICEVs, 
tax benefits related to charging.

•  Electric mobility law: framework for municipalities to 
grant privileges to Evs such as preferential parking, 
lower parking fees, driving in restricted areas.

charging infrastructure.

•  Funding for public recharging infrastructure.

•  Masterplan recharging infrastructure with 

ambitious targets.

France

Sweden

•  Financial benefits: CO2 emission-based bonus-malus 
measures on car purchase, CO2 emission-based 
ownership tax, one-time grant for the purchase of a 
used EV, scrappage scheme, local grants.

•  Procurement of Evs in public fleets.

•  Financial benefits: bonus-malus system, preferential 
taxes for electric company cars, free parking in some 
public places, subsidies for private charging stations.

•  Free access to high-occupancy vehicle and bus lanes in 

some areas.

•  Subsidies for companies and public entities 

for installing public recharging points.

•  Funding for public recharging infrastructure.

The Netherlands

•  Financial benefits: purchase bonus (also for used Evs), 

exemption/reduction of ownership tax and registration 
tax, disincentives for ICEVs, benefits for electric 
company cars.

•  Public recharging points on request for 
EV owners with no home or workplace 
recharging access (in some municipalities).

•  Free public charging in some cities.

Source: 

Based on Wappelhorst et al. (2020) and Wappelhorst (2021b, 2021c).

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

5.5.3  Outlook and possible bottlenecks

about whether cost reductions will be reflected quickly in the 

retail prices, or there will be a time lag, which would mean that 

Among the factors in the decomposition analysis presented 

price parity would be achieved later. Even with such price parity, 

in Chapter 3, the electrification of the vehicle stock is the 

there is a risk that Evs will not be affordable for all consumers 

factor that is expected to evolve the most in the coming 

(EC, 2021h). In the Fit for 55 package, the Commission 

decades, thereby contributing to a fall in GHG emissions 

proposes a new Social Climate Fund to achieve a socially fair 

from road transport. The uptake of Evs is forecast to 
increase strongly under the influence of the CO2 standards 
for cars, vans and HDVs, supported by the rolling-out of the 

recharging infrastructure.

In the EU Reference Scenario 2020 (EC, 2021e), the European 
Commission projects that the EV share in the stock of light-duty 

transition (EC, 2021b).

To achieve a large breakthrough for Evs several bottlenecks 
must still be overcome. The first is the provision of charging 
infrastructure. The proposed revision of the Alternative Fuels 
Infrastructure Regulation (see Section 5.2.3) is seen as a key 

instrument to address this issue (EC, 2021h). Next to the policies 

vehicles (including battery electric, fuel cell vehicles and 

and measures undertaken at EU, national and local levels, 

plug-in hybrids) would reach 16% by 2030 and 53% by 2050. The 

innovation might solve this bottleneck. Innovative solutions 

electrification of HDVs is projected to stay limited, reaching only 

include battery swapping, induction-based wireless charging 

about 4% of vehicle stock by 2050, with current policies. Among 

stations or mobile recharging points providing on-demand, 

buses and coaches, the uptake of electric buses is expected to 

portable recharging services to solve emergency situations 

accelerate, driven by the implementation of the Clean Vehicles 

(JRC and DG Mobility and Transport, 2020).

Directive and air quality concerns in many cities resulting in the 

banning of combustion engine buses.

The scenarios (7) analysed by the Commission (EC, 2020b) 
describe developments with different types of additional 

A second bottleneck is the concern that (peak) electricity 
demand for recharging Evs could put pressure on the 
electricity grid and require expensive grid reinforcement. 
Modelling of the electricity market, e.g. with the METIS tool 

policies. In these policy scenarios, the share of Evs in the car 

(Klettke et al., 2018), has demonstrated that the increasing 

stock would increase to 20% in 2030 and to 88-99% in 2050. 

penetration of Evs could lead to a substantial increase in 

For vans, a similar evolution in the policy scenarios is projected, 

total electricity demand (e.g. total electricity demand would 

with an acceleration in the share of low and zero emission 

increase by 10% in a scenario in which 34% of the energy 

vehicles after 2030, reaching 87-97% in 2050. Buses are also 

demand for cars would be for electricity). In combination with 

projected to have almost completely zero emissions by 2050 

uncoordinated charging this would lead to high peak demand, 

in the policy scenarios. Only HGVs would not have a dominant 

e.g. in the morning and early evening hours, implying high 

share of zero or low emission vehicles by 2050. Around one 

prices and the risk that the energy supply will be insufficient. 

quarter of the trucks in 2050 would be fuel cell vehicles and 

around 14-20% BEVs. The remaining HGVs would be hybrid or 

ICEVs, which would require low and zero carbon fuels to achieve 

climate neutrality.

Innovative solutions are being developed to mitigate this, in 
the form of smart grids and smart meters. This technology 
enables EV batteries to act as flexible loads and decentralised 

storage resources. Demand-side management and real-time 

pricing can provide incentives to charge Evs when the demand 

A recent analysis (Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2021; 

is low or there is a large supply of renewable electricity. With 

Transport & Environment, 2021a) expects that electric vans 
and cars will achieve price parity with equivalent ICEVs 
between 2025 and 2027, meaning that they would have the 
same upfront cost as equivalent ICEVs. Falling battery prices 

bidirectional charging, Evs could bring even greater flexibility 

to the system by supplying power back to the grid (called 

vehicle-to-grid) or to the home (vehicle-to-building).

and the switch to dedicated BEV manufacturing platforms 

In 2020, the European Commission proposed an EU Strategy for 

would be the main drivers of the cost reductions. As well as 

Energy System Integration (EC, 2020c) to optimise the energy 

policies and innovations in Europe, the growth of the global 

system through better links between both the various energy 

vehicle and automotive battery markets will help to expand the 

production capacity and achieve economies of scale, resulting 

in cost reductions (IEA, 2020). There is, however, uncertainty 

carriers and the end-use sectors. This strategy expects that, by 
2050, Evs could provide up to 20% of the flexibility required 
daily. This would diminish the need for costly investments in 

(7)  The regulatory-based measures scenario (REG), the carbon-pricing based scenario (CPRICE), the combined approach scenario (MIX) and the 

most ambitious scenario in which the scope is extended to all aviation and maritime emissions (ALLBNK) all reach an economy-wide -55% GHG 
reduction in 2030. Only the MIX-50 scenario relaxes this 2030 target to -50%.

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe CO2 performance of cars, vans and heavy goods vehicles in the EU

grid capacity. At a local level, however, the full electrification of 

and Transport, 2020). Despite these risks, it is expected that 

cars will require upgrades to the local grid infrastructure.

the supply of raw materials needed for battery production will 

increase, as there are many new mining and refining projects 

The large-scale battery production required is a third 
bottleneck: will there be sufficient raw materials for the 
batteries required for e-mobility? There are supply risks related 

in the pipeline. In addition to the risks associated with the 

availability of the raw materials required, care must be taken 

to ensure that the batteries are socially and environmentally 

to geopolitical stability in the producing countries (e.g. cobalt 

sustainable from a life cycle perspective. Reuse and recycling 

mining in the Democratic Republic of the Congo). Another risk 

can have a significant mitigating effect on future material needs. 

is that unstable markets with strong price peaks may affect 

A recent study by Transport & Environment (2021b) estimates 

business stability and long-term investments in mining and 

that by 2035, one fifth of the lithium and nickel and 65% of the 

refining capacities. This may have impacts on the supply of 

cobalt needed could come from recycling. A new EU Batteries 

nickel, cobalt and to a lesser extent graphite and lithium. A 

Regulation has been proposed to ensure that batteries placed 

third risk is related to the concentration of refining capacity in 

on the EU market are sustainable and safe throughout their life 

China and the lack of capacity in Europe (JRC and DG Mobility 

cycle (EC, 2021a).

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6 
The greenhouse gas 
emissions intensity of road 
transport energy

Key messages

• 

• 

• 

Two key pieces of EU legislation have an impact on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of road transport 
fuels: the recast Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) and the Fuel Quality Directive. The reduction in the GHG 
emissions intensity of the road transport fuel mix has been mainly due to the higher share of biofuels (a target for 
which is set in RED II). In 2020, the average share of energy from renewable fuels in transport in the 27 EU Member 
States was 10.2%: most of this share is biofuels.

Considering the broader scope of emissions (well-to-wheel, life cycle analysis), the contrast between the GHG 
emissions performance of biofuels and fossil fuels is even greater than for the scope of only the exhaust emissions. 
However, the feedstock used to produce biofuels is decisive, as potential indirect land use change from growing 
crops for biofuels can diminish these benefits.

As the share of electric vehicles increases, the carbon intensity of electricity production will become increasingly 
relevant to the assessment of the full climate impact of road transport.

6.1 

Introduction

6.2 

Policy framework

The decomposition analysis presented in Chapter 3 indicated 

EU legislation that has an impact on the GHG emission 

that the share of biofuels has been an important factor in the 

intensity of road transport fuels includes legislation introducing 

tank-to-wheel (TTW) GHG emissions from road transport, while 

renewable energy targets and that encouraging the 

the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of fossil fuels has 
played a smaller role. This chapter further explores the GHG 

improvement of fossil fuels (Table 6.1). Two pieces of legislation 
are key: the Renewable Energy Directive (and its update) and 

emission intensity of road transport energy. In addition to 

the Fuel Quality Directive. The Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) 

the TTW emissions that were examined in the decomposition 

Directive complements these by regulating the feedstocks from 

analysis, the chapter also discusses the well-to-tank (WTT) 

which the biofuels are produced.

emissions, as well as potential emissions arising from indirect 

land-use change (ILUC), to broaden the perspective of the GHG 

emissions performance of transport fuels.

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe greenhouse gas emissions intensity of road transport energy

Table 6.1 

EU legislation that influences the GHG emission intensity of transport fuels

Legislation

Key targets and elements relevant for 
road transport

Proposed key changes in the 
Fit for 55 package

Link to the decomposition 
analysis

Renewable 
Energy 
Directive (RED) 
(2009/28/EC) 
and RED II 
(2018/2001)

For 2020, in each Member State the share 
of energy from renewable sources in all 
forms of transport is at least 10% of the 
final consumption of energy in transport.

For 2030, in each Member State energy 
from renewable sources in road and rail 
is at least 14% of the final consumption of 
energy in transport.

New approach to target 
setting: 13% GHG emission 
intensity reduction target 
in 2030, compared with a 
liquid fossil fuel baseline. 
GHG emission intensity 
target applies to all energy 
consumed by transport.

Sustainability criteria for biofuels.

Gradually increasing shares of 
advanced biofuels.

Share of electricity and fuels 
in energy consumed by road 
transport.

Share of fossil fuels and biofuels 
in fuel consumption by road 
transport.

Energy efficiency (via electricity 
production for electric vehicles). 

Fuel Quality 
Directive (FQD) 
(2009/30/EC)

Reduction by a minimum of 6% by 2020 
compared with 2010 of life cycle GHG 
emissions per unit of energy.

Sustainability criteria to define eligibility 
of fuels counting towards the target, 
aligned with the RED. 
Applies to petrol, diesel and biofuels in 
road transport and gasoil for non-road 
mobile machinery.

GHG emission intensity 
target of road transport fuels 
is deleted (in the proposed 
RED II revision). All related 
articles in the FQD are also 
removed.

Carbon intensity of fossil fuels 
consumed by road transport.

Share of fossil fuels, biofuels and 
electricity in energy consumed by 
road transport.

6.2.1  Renewable Energy Directive

The RED II is supplemented by Commission Delegated 

Regulation (EU) 2019/807 (EU, 2019a). The regulation includes 

The Renewable Energy Directive (RED) came into force in 

criteria for identifying feedstock with high ILUC risk and 

2009, setting renewable energy targets for 2020. The updated 

general criteria for the certification of biofuels with a low ILUC 

Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) (EU, 2018b), entered into 

risk. It proposes criteria for improvements in agricultural 

force in December 2018, setting targets for 2030.

practices (additionality measures) allowing the yield of food 

and feed crops on land that is already used for this purpose 

Both directives include a transport sub-target. For 2020, for 

to be increased or the cultivation of such crops on unused or 

each Member State, a target for the share of energy from 

abandoned land.

renewable sources in all forms of transport of at least 10% of 

the final consumption of energy in transport was set. By 2030, 

a minimum of 14% of the energy consumed in road and rail 

transport should be renewable in each Member State. Within 

this target a specific target applies for advanced biofuels, which 

In the Fit for 55 package of July 2021 the European 
Commission published a proposal for the revision of the 
Renewable Energy Directive (EC, 2021l), as achieving at least 
a 55% net reduction in GHG emissions in 2030 compared 

is gradually increasing up to 3.5% in 2030. The RED II also 

with 1990 will require an accelerated transition towards 

defines a series of sustainability and GHG emission criteria 
that should be met by bioliquids used in transport so that 

renewable energy.

they count towards the overall 14% target and are eligible for 

The proposed revision sets a target share of at least 40%, 

financial support by public authorities. The RED II sets limits on 

rather than 32%, of energy from renewable sources in the 

high-ILUC-risk biofuels, bioliquids and biomass fuels that would 

European Community's gross final consumption of energy. For 

entail a significant expansion of cultivation on land with high 

transport, an important change in approach is proposed: the 

carbon stocks, and imposes a gradual phase-out of these fuels 

replacement of the 14% RED II target for renewable energy 

between 2023 and 2030. In addition, the share of fuels based 

in transport with a 13% GHG emission intensity reduction 

on a number of feedstocks that can be processed with mature 

target in 2030, compared with a liquid fossil fuel baseline GHG 

technologies (including used cooking oils and animal fats), 

emission intensity. While the RED II target applied to energy 

cannot exceed 1.7%.

consumed by road and rail, the proposed target applies to all 

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe greenhouse gas emissions intensity of road transport energy

energy consumed by transport. Also new is that renewable fuels 

6.2.3 

Indirect Land Use Change Directive

and renewable electricity count towards the 13% GHG emission 

reduction target on the basis of their GHG emission savings. 

The growth of feedstocks to produce biofuels might indirectly 

The proposed RED II revision includes gradually increasing 

lead to the extension of agricultural land to previously 

minimum shares for advanced biofuels and renewable fuels 

uncultivated areas (ILUC). This process can give rise to 

of non-biological origin to 2.2% and 2.6%, respectively, in 2030. 

negative impacts on biodiversity, as well as on carbon stocks, 

The proposal also includes a credit system for the supply 

in cases where such expansions extend to forests, wetlands 

of renewable electricity to the transport sector via public 

charging stations.

6.2.2 

Fuel Quality Directive

and peatlands because the subsequent release of carbon 
dioxide (CO2) stored in trees and soil may exceed the GHG 
emission savings that result from using the biofuels.

Because of these concerns the ILUC Directive (Directive 
2015/1513, (EU, 2015)) introduced the additional constraint 

In addition to the Renewable Energy Directive, the GHG 

that the share of energy from biofuels produced from crops 

emission intensity of road transport fuels is regulated by the 
Fuel Quality Directive (FQD) (EU, 2009a). The FQD applies 
to petrol, diesel and biofuels used in road transport and 

grown on agricultural land is not to exceed 7% of the final 

consumption of energy in transport in the Member States 

in 2020. Moreover, a list of feedstocks was added, including 

gasoil used in non-road mobile machinery. It establishes an 

algae and wastes or residues, which do not count towards 

obligation for the suppliers to report annually on the GHG 

the 7% limit, and their contribution towards the 10% target 

emission intensity of fuels and energy supplied within each 

(in the RED) was considered to be twice their energy content.

Member State. Member States had to require suppliers to 

reduce GHG emissions per unit of energy from fuel and energy 

supplied by a minimum of 6% by 2020 compared with the 
2010 baseline of 94.1 g CO2e/MJ. The GHG emission intensity of 
fuels is calculated on a life cycle basis, covering emissions from 

6.2.4 

Implementation of directives at Member 
State level

extraction, processing and distribution. Furthermore, Member 

EU Member States can choose how they meet the RED 

States must ensure that suppliers respect the target of 6% after 

targets for renewables in transport and the target for the 

the year 2020.

reduction of the GHG emission intensity of fuels under the 

FQD. As reported in the National Energy and Climate Plans, 

Possible strategies to attain the 6% reduction target include:

some Member States set an overall biofuels incorporation 

target, some set separate targets for biofuels in petrol or 

•  using biofuels, electricity, less carbon-intensive fossil fuels, 

diesel or both and others rely solely on targets for reducing 

and renewable fuels of non-biological origin (such as 

the carbon intensity of fuels. Apart from such support 

electrofuels (e-fuels);

measures for biofuels, in recent years Member States are 

increasingly promoting electric mobility (EC, 2020f). Measures 

• 

reducing upstream emissions (such as flaring and venting) 

by Member States also include strategic measures, for 

during the extraction stage of fossil feedstocks.

example regarding the circular economy or the management 

of urban and agricultural waste, or support for research and 

For biofuels to count towards the GHG emission reduction 

development (R&D).

targets, they must meet certain sustainability criteria and give 

consideration to ILUC.

All EU Member States apply taxes on fuels for passenger 
and freight transport, complying with the minima set in the 

The Fit for 55 package does not include a revised FQD. 

Energy Taxation Directive and often well above these minima 

However, in the proposed RED II revision, the target set in the 

(which have remained constant over time). A number of 

FQD for the GHG emission intensity of road transport fuels 

countries give tax incentives for biofuels or blends (Table 6.2). 

has been deleted, together with all related articles in the FQD 

In Germany a separate emissions trading system has applied 

and the corresponding Council Directive on the calculation 

since the beginning of 2021, covering road transport and 

methods and reporting requirements.

buildings (Wettengel, 2021).

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe greenhouse gas emissions intensity of road transport energy

Table 6.2 

Overview of tax incentives for biofuels/blends in the EU‑27, July 2020

Tax incentive

None

Member State

Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Malta, 
Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain

Lower tax for low biofuel blends

Austria, Denmark, France, Slovakia, Sweden

Lower tax for high biofuel blends

Czechia, Denmark, France, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden

Taxation based on the energy/CO2 content

Finland

No excise duty/exemption from certain taxes 
(components)

Croatia, Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, Portugal, Slovenia

Source: 

ePURE (2020).

6.3 

The tank-to-wheel greenhouse gas 
emission intensity of the fuel mix

of the feedstock, the net CO2 emission is considered to be 
zero (Table 6.3).

6.3.1  Greenhouse gas emission intensity of road 

transport fuels

The increase in fossil fuel CO2 emission intensity can be explained 
by the increased share of diesel in the overall fuel consumption 

and by diesel having a higher rate of emissions than petrol. This 

Figure 6.1 presents the trend in the TTW CO2 emission intensity 
of fossil fuels (as used in the decomposition analysis) and all 

is partly compensated for by the increased share (measured in 

terms of energy content) of LPG and gaseous fuels in the fossil 

road transport fuels for the period between 2000 and 2019. 

The development of the TTW GHG emission intensity of road 

transport fuels depends on two factors: the emission factors 

per fuel type and changes in the fuel mix. For fossil fuels the 

intensity increases a little during the period. The reduction in 
the CO2 emission intensity of all transport fuels is therefore 
related to the increased share of biofuels.

The CO2 emissions per unit of energy are the highest for diesel, 
followed by petrol, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and gaseous 
fuels. For biofuels, as the CO2 released during fuel combustion 
is taken to be equal to the CO2 captured during the growth 

fuel mix. Considering all GHGs (in carbon dioxide equivalent 
(CO2e)), the carbon intensity of fossil fuels has remained stable. 
In 2019, the CO2e emissions per energy unit were higher for 
diesel than petrol. This is related to the nitrogen oxides (NOx) 
abatement technologies for diesel vehicles, which result in an 
increase in nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions (EEA and EMEP, 2019). 
On the other hand, reduced methane emissions from petrol 

and LPG has contributed to a minor decrease in the overall GHG 

emission intensity of fossil fuels.

These results suggest that the increased share of biofuels has 

had a positive impact on the overall intensity of the fuel mix.

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Figure 6.1 

Tank‑to‑wheel CO2 and GHG emission intensity of road transport fuels in the EU‑27, 2000‑2019  
(2000=1) and share of biofuels (%)

Change from 2000 (2000=1.00)

5.2

4.4

4.7

4.6

4.9

4.8

4.8

5.6

5.8

5.1

3.9

3.3

2.6

2.0

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1.2

1.08

1.06

1.04

1.02

1.00

0.98

0.96

0.94

0.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

CO2 emissions intensity: fossil fuels

CO2 emissions intensity: fuels

CO2e emissions intensity: fuels

Share biofuels (percentage)

Note: 

Electricity consumption by road transport is not considered in this figure. Fuels=fossil and biofuels.

CO2e, carbon dioxide equivalent.

Source: 

EEA compilation based on GHG emission inventory (EEA and EC DG Climate Action, 2021).

Table 6.3 

Overview of tax incentives for biofuels/blends in the EU‑27, July 2020

2000

2019

Share in fuel 
consuption

CO2

t/TJ

CH4

kg/TJ

N2O

kg/TJ

CO2e

t/TJ

Share in fuel 
consuption

CO2

t/TJ

CH4

kg/TJ

N2O

kg/TJ

CO2e

t/TJ

44.8%

53.1%

1.5%

0.1%

0.3%

0.1%

72.7

73.9

65.5

56.3

0.0

23.7

3.7

14.9

43.9

7.7

4.8

1.4

1.1

0.7

1.9

73.0

73.2

12.90

12.92

2.94

2.95

74.7

74.5

66.2

57.6

0.8

74.2

74.4

24.3%

66.8%

2.2%

0.7%

5.8%

0.2%

73.3

74.1

65.3

56.9

0.0

69.4

73.6

11.2

1.0

9.6

36.3

3.2

4.07

4.13

0.9

3.0

0.4

5.0

2.3

2.40

2.41

73.8

75.0

65.6

59.3

0.8

70.2

74.4

Petrol

Diesel oil

LPG

Gaseous fuels

Biomass

Other fuels

Weighted average

Weighted average 
fossil fuels

Note: 

Electricity consumption by road transport is not considered in this table The carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions per MJ also take 
the emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), weighted by their respective global warming potential, into account. The colours in 
the table indicate the relative magnitude of the emission intensity per pollutant in the 2 years.

Source: 

EEA compilation based on GHG emission inventory (EEA and EC DG Climate Action, 2021).

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The greenhouse gas emissions intensity of road transport energy

6.3.2  Road transport energy consumption and the 

higher than in 2000, despite fluctuations following the 

share of renewable fuels

economic crisis.

Figure 6.2 presents the trend in the final energy 

Throughout this period, fossil fuels were dominant, although 

consumption by road transport in the 27 EU Member 

their share fell from almost 100% in 2000 to 94.2% in 2019, 

States (EU-27) between 2000 and 2019 by category and 

being replaced by renewables and biofuels. The share of 

by the share of the largest categories. In 2019, total 

electricity was minor, at 0.08% in 2019. The dominant fossil 

final energy consumption in road transport was 11.2% 

fuels were petrol and diesel (Figures 6.2 and 6.3).

Figure 6.2 

Final energy consumption by road transport (left axis) and share of energy categories (right axis) in 
the EU‑27, 2000‑2019

PJ

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

80

60

40

20

0

Percentage

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Share of fossil fuels

Share of diesel

Share of petrol

Share of renewables and biofuels

Share of electricity

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Diesel

Petrol

Liqueﬁed Petroleum Gas

Renewables and biofuels

Natural gas

Electricity

Other oil products

Note: 

PJ - Petajoules.

Source: 

EEA compilation based on Eurostat (2021).

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Figure 6.3 

Final energy consumption by road transport by energy type in the EU‑27 in 2019

Fuels

0.08
0.68
2.16
5.83

24.55

66.70

Percentage

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Biofuels

0.06

1.00

4.77

Percentage

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Diesel

Petrol

Biofuels

Biodiesel

Biopetrol

Biogas

Liqueﬁed Petroleum Gas

Natural gas

Electricity

Source: 

EEA compilation based on Eurostat (2021).

The average share of energy from renewable sources in 

The TTW emissions examined in the decomposition 

transport in the EU-27, calculated using the methodology 

analysis are only one part of the overall impact of GHG 

prescribed by the RED, increased from 1.6% in 2004 to 10.2% 

emissions from road transport. The WTT emissions 

in 2020 (Figure 6.4). In this way, the 2020 target of 10% 

(those taking place during the production, transport and 

has been met. However, this is driven by a small number 

distribution of fuels) also play a role and are relevant for 

of Member States that have high shares of renewables, 

all types of energy used in road transport: fossil fuels, 

while less than half of the Member States have reached the 

biofuels and electricity.

target individually. Biofuels were the most prevalent type of 

renewable energy used in transport during this period.

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Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand31.9

The greenhouse gas emissions intensity of road transport energy

Figure 6.4 

Share of energy from renewable sources in transport in the EU‑27 in 2020

EU-27

Sweden

Finland

Netherlands

Luxembourg

Estonia

Hungary

Belgium

Slovenia

Italy

Malta

Austria

Ireland

Germany

Portugal

Denmark

Spain

Czechia

Slovakia

France

Bulgaria

Romania

Cyprus

Latvia

Croatia

Poland

Lithuania

Greece

10.2

13.4

12.6

12.6

12.2

11.6

11.0

10.9

10.7

10.6

10.3

10.2

9.9

9.7

9.6

9.5

9.4

9.3

9.2

9.1

8.5

7.4

6.7

6.6

6.6

5.5

5.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Percentage

Source: 

EEA compilation based on Eurostat (2021).

2020

2020 target

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6.4 

The well-to-wheel and indirect land use 
change greenhouse gas emissions of the 
current energy mix in road transport

In 2019, the average GHG intensity of the fuels supplied in 
the EU-27 and the UK was 90.1 g CO2e/MJ, excluding ILUC 
impacts (EEA, 2021b) (Figure 6.5). This is equivalent to a 

4.3% reduction compared with 2010, while the FQD set a 

6.4.1  Well-to-wheel and indirect land use change 

target reduction of 6% by 2020. The ILUC emissions are 

impacts of biofuels

In addition to emissions occurring during combustion, GHGs 

are emitted when producing, transporting and pre-treating the 

not taken into account for assessing compliance with this 

target. However, if the emissions related to ILUC are also 
considered, the value is 91.6 g CO2e/MJ and the reduction 
would be 2.6% compared with 2010. Considering ILUC, the 

feedstock for fossil fuels and biofuels, as well as during fuel 

GHG intensity of fuels increased in 2018, due to a higher 

production and distribution. For biofuels, these emissions are 

share of oil crop-based biofuels, and decreased again in 2019 

highly dependent on the type of feedstock from which they 

as a result of a limited change in feedstocks away from oil 

are produced.

crops to sugars.

Figure 6.5 

Average GHG intensity of road transport fuels in the EU, 2010‑2019

gCO2e/MJ

95

94

93

92

91

90

89

88

0

Greenhouse gas intensity including
indirect land-use change

-2.4%(*)

-2.1%

-3.4%(*)

-3.7%

-2.6%

-4.3%

Greenhouse gas intensity excluding
indirect land-use change

Target:-6%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Note: 

Average EU values (including and excluding ILUC from biofuels production) calculated using 22 Member States' submissions for 2017 (all 
except Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania and Spain) and 28 submissions for 2018 and 2019.

Source: 

EEA (2021b).

67

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe greenhouse gas emissions intensity of road transport energy

The WTW emission intensity is substantially lower for 

Biodiesel and HVO produced from 'other feedstocks' (such as 

biofuels than conventional fuels: GHG emissions per unit 

used cooking oil and animal fats) have a relatively low GHG 

of energy are estimated to be 42% lower for bioethanol 

emission intensity and no ILUC  impact. The emission intensity 

than conventional petrol and 57.7% lower for biodiesel 

of bioethanol produced from cereals and other starch-rich crops 

than conventional (fossil) diesel. It has been estimated that 

and sugars remains lower than that of fossil petrol, even when 

using hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) leads to a 67.4% 

including ILUC.

reduction compared with diesel (Prussi et al., 2020a).

However, the ILUC effect can diminish these benefits. The 

impacts of biofuels for each main feedstock and a weighted 

feedstock is important when assessing the GHG reduction 

average over all feedstocks per fuel (Figure 6.6).

Data reported under the FQD can be used to estimate the 

potential of biofuels, especially when including the ILUC 

effect. Assessing the magnitude of ILUC is difficult, as it is 
impossible to measure ILUC directly, even ex post, since 
this requires determining what would have happened 

For the most prevalent type of biofuel, biodiesel, the most 

common feedstocks are rapeseed oil, used cooking oil and palm 

oil, which together account for almost 90% of the feedstocks 

without the introduction of biofuels.

(Prussi et al., 2020a). For bioethanol production, mainly wheat, 

maize and sugars are used (Figure 6.7).

Biofuels produced from oil crops are only marginally better 

than their fossil fuel equivalent when considering ILUC. 

Figure 6.6 

GHG emissions from the use of biofuels, based on data collected under the Fuel Quality Directive 
in the EU‑27 + UK, 2018

Biodiesel

Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO)

Bioethanol

gCO2e/MJ 

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Oil crops

Weighted
average

Other

Oil crops

Weighted
average

Other

Sugars

Weighted
average

Cereals
and other
starch 
rich crops

Other

Bio - excluding ILUC emissions

Bio - Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC)

Source: 

EEA compilation based on Table 6.2 in Mellios and Gouliarou (2020).

68

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe greenhouse gas emissions intensity of road transport energy

Figure 6.7 

Share of feedstocks in 2017 for bioethanol, biodiesel and HVO in the EU‑27 and the UK

Percentage

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Bioethanol

Biodiesel

Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil(HVO)

Maize

Wheat

Sugars

Other cereals

Lignocellulosic material*

Rapeseed oil

Palm oil

Used cooking oil

Animal fats

Soybean oil

Sunﬂower oil

Note: 

*or other feedstocks listed in RED II.

Source: 

EEA compilation based on Appendix 2 in Prussi et al. (2020a).

The RED II incentivises a larger role for waste — and residue 

The potential for the future scaling up of these options faces 

— based fuels. In addition, so-called synthetic fuels or e-fuels, 
which are produced using (renewable) energy, water and CO2, 
have received attention recently. Such fuels have the potential 

challenges in the form of the availability of feedstocks and 

the control of ILUC impacts. The production of synthetic fuels 

is highly energy and capital intensive, and there is a need for 

to decrease the GHG intensity of fuels used in road transport, 

further R&D. A large uptake of such fuels or hydrogen would 

considering WTW emissions. Depending on the feedstock 

require a substantial expansion in electricity generation 

and production process, these alternative fuels can have 
significant advantages over fossil fuels. When coal is used as 

(JRC and DG Mobility and Transport, 2020).

primary energy input to produce synthetic diesel or hydrogen, 

Considering the broader scope of emissions (well-to-wheel, 

there is no advantage in producing e-fuels. However, 

life cycle analysis) the contrast between the GHG emission 

considerable improvements in GHG emission intensity can 

performance of biofuels and fossil fuels is even higher than for 

be achieved if residues and wastes are used as feedstock 

the scope of only exhaust emissions. However, the feedstock 

or if carbon capture and storage is employed in the case of 

used to produce biofuels is decisive, since potential ILUC from 

synthetic fuels (Prussi et al., 2020b).

growing crops for biofuels can diminish these benefits.

69

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandThe greenhouse gas emissions intensity of road transport energy

6.4.2 

The well-to-tank emissions related to electricity 
production

Since 2010, the transition from fossil fuels to renewable fuels 

in electricity generation has been the main factor behind 

this positive development. For the EU to achieve a net 55% 

The GHG emission intensity of electricity generation at EU 

reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, compared with 1990, 

level can be used to assess the GHG intensity of electricity 

used in road transport. This electricity is used by electric 

vehicles, and thus constitutes WTT emissions related to 

the emission intensity of electricity generation should be in 
the indicative range of between 110 and 118 g CO2e/kWh 
(Figure 6.8).

those vehicles.

According to EEA (2021e) the GHG emission intensity of total 
electricity generation in the EU-27 was 231 g CO2e/kWh in 2020, 
which is about half the intensity in 1990 (501 g CO2e/kWh). 

As the share of electric vehicles increases in the future, the 

carbon intensity of electricity generation will also become 

increasingly relevant to the assessment of the full climate 

impact of road transport.

Figure 6.8 

GHG emission intensity of electricity generation in the EU‑27

gCO2e/kWh 

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Greenhouse gas emission intensity

Indicated level - high

Indicated level - low

Note: 

Indicative values for 2030 consistent with scenario ranges in the Staff Working Document accompanying the Fit for 55 policy package.

Source: 

EEA (2021e).

70

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand 
 
 
 
 
 
 
© Rossana Grecchi, Climate Change PIX/EEA

7 
Looking to the future

Key messages

•  With the current policy framework, it is projected that carbon dioxide emissions from road transport in the EU will 

decrease by 35% by 2050 (compared with 1990). The decrease will be largely driven by the increased efficiency of 
vehicles, including a shift to electric vehicles. Transport demand is projected to increase, and modal shift to have a 
limited effect on emissions.

• 

• 

However, the projected driving factors of future reductions in emissions by themselves will not have the same 
effect on other impacts on the environment, such as noise and non-exhaust air pollutants, congestion, biodiversity 
loss and resource use.

To ensure that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road transport are significantly reduced and other impacts 
are also minimised, factors that have so far driven GHG emissions upwards could be harnessed to reduce the GHG 
impact of the road transport sector.

7.1 

Future development of CO2 emissions

The EU Reference Scenario 2020 (EC, 2021e) projects a decrease 
in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from road transport of 35% 
by 2050 compared with 1990. What underlies this projected 

Modal shift will have a limited impact. The passenger car 
transport share in road/rail transport is projected to fall to 
78.1% in 2050 (compared with 78.8% in 2005), mainly to the 
benefit of rail, the share of which would increase to 11.3% by 

2050 (compared with 6.5% in 2015). This is the consequence 

change and how does this relate to the driving factors explored 

of higher costs for road transport (both monetary costs and 

in the decomposition analysis?

congestion costs), in combination with improved rail services.

7.1.1 

Transport demand will continue increasing

transport, the rail share is projected to grow (20% in 2050 

In terms of the heavy goods vehicle (HGV) share in freight 

In 2020, passenger and freight transport volumes dropped as a 
result of the pandemic. In the period after 2020 the EU Reference 
Scenario 2020 projects a rebound in passenger and freight 
transport volumes by 2025 and a further increase afterwards. 

Compared with 2015, the number of passenger-kilometres 

compared with 17% in 2015) and that of the other inland 

transport modes to fall. While rail, inland navigation and 
national maritime transport are all set to benefit from the 

completion of the Trans-European Transport Network core and 

comprehensive networks, rail is projected to benefit the most.

travelled by road/rail is forecast to be about 13% higher in 2030, 
and 27.4% higher in 2050. For inland freight transport, the 
scenario forecasts a rise of 31% by 2030 compared with 2015, 
and an increase of 55% by 2050, in terms of tonne-kilometres.

Energy efficiency will be a key factor in reducing emissions. 
Vehicle energy efficiency is projected to increase, driven by 

vehicle efficiency standards. This is projected to lead to a 

reduction in road transport energy use of 15% by 2030 and 

Overall transport activity will continue increasing; hence, other 
factors will be needed to reduce emissions. CO2 emissions 
are projected to fall by 2050, as the upwards surge in road 

transport activity is expected to be more than compensated by 

counteracting factors.

33% by 2050, compared with 2005. The higher energy efficiency 

is realised by improvements in vehicles with an internal 

combustion engine (ICEVs) and also by the electrification of 

vehicles, which is expected to grow faster in the coming decade.

72

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandLooking to the future

Electrification will have an increasing effect. With existing 
policies, the share of electricity in road transport is projected to 

Road traffic is the most important source of noise pollution 
(EEA, 2019c). Noise pollution affects quality of life and can 

reach 2.7% in 2030 and 11.5 % in 2050. In terms of vehicle stock, 

lead to major health problems. The projected increase in road 

the scenario projects that the electric vehicle (EV) share in the 

transport volumes might thus also increase the impacts of 

stock of light-duty vehicles would reach 16% by 2030 and 53% 

noise pollution. More efficient ICEVs do not address this issue. 

by 2050. The electrification of heavy-duty vehicles is expected to 

Although at low speeds EVs are almost silent, at speeds above 

remain limited, reaching only about 4% of vehicle stock in 2050.

25 km/h they do produce noise through tyre/road interaction 

Biofuels are projected to have a limited impact. The EU 
Reference Scenario 2020 projects that biofuels and biomethane 
would constitute 6.8% of all transport fuels (excluding hydrogen 
and electricity) in 2030 and in 2050 (EC, 2021e) (8).

Together these counteracting factors are expected to lead to 
a reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050, despite the increase in 
transport demand.

(Umweltbundesamt, 2013). By 2050, the increased share 

of EVs could lead to a limited reduction in road traffic noise 

(EC, 2020b).

Other environmental impacts relate to the road transport 
infrastructure. The land taken for roads and parking places 
leads to fragmentation of ecosystems and biodiversity loss. 
It also puts the quality of life in urban areas under pressure. 

Half of European inner-city land is devoted to roads and 

parking (Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019). This reduces the 

opportunities for cities to become more resilient to climate 

7.2 

Future of sustainable road transport

change by limiting the space available for more green areas and 

7.2.1 

Impact of vehicle efficiency improvements on 
other environmental aspects of transport

loss are not expected to benefit from the electrification and 

improved efficiency of vehicles, as they require the same road 

blue networks. Impacts related to land uptake and biodiversity 

The projected electrification of the road vehicle stock, 

together with the increasing role of renewable fuels and 

electricity are expected to play an important role in the future 

decarbonisation of road transport. Using 'improve' strategies 

has some co-benefits for other environmental aspects aside 

from decarbonisation, but some important environmental 

impacts remain. Therefore, while the expected switch to 

EVs and more efficient ICEVs will significantly reduce the 
CO2 emissions of road transport, it will not have the same 
effect on other environmental impacts. Major environmental 

externalities related to road transport include air pollution, 

noise, congestion, land uptake and biodiversity loss, as well as 

resource use.

and parking infrastructure.

In terms of congestion, the focus on 'improve' strategies alone 
will not lead to an improvement. In both the EU Reference 
Scenario 2020 with existing policies and the policy scenarios 
developed by the European Commission (EC, 2021e), road 
transport volumes and related congestion costs are 
expected to increase. This problem is not mitigated by EVs 
(or more efficient ICEVs) and, depending on the impact of the 

electrification on the driving costs, could even be exacerbated 

by them.

Finally, there are environmental impacts related to the life 
cycle of vehicles, from mining, refining and manufacturing 
to waste disposal. Life cycle analysis studies indicate that 

For air pollution and noise, electrification provides a partial 
solution. Exhaust emissions of air pollutants will be reduced 
significantly with the expected electrification of the EU vehicle 

BEVs have a smaller climate impact than ICEVs and that this 

advantage increases with the share of renewable electricity 

(Del Pero et al., 2018; EEA, 2018; IEA, 2019a; Bieker, 2021)light 

stock in the coming decades. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and 
fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) eliminate all exhaust emissions, 

duty vehicles are responsible for roughly 10% of total energy 
use and air emissions. As a consequence, the need for higher 

and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) eliminate emissions 
during their electric driving phase. Still, non‑exhaust emissions 
remain an issue. Tyre, brake and road surface wear and tear 

fuel/energy efficiency in both conventional and electric cars has 

become urgent and the efforts across industrial and research 

players have proposed a range of innovative solutions with 

cause particulate matter (PM) emissions that are harmful to 

great potential. This study presents a comparative Life Cycle 

human health and are an important source of heavy metals 

Assessment of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE. However, 

and microplastics in the environment. These non-exhaust 

other environmental impacts may be higher for BEVs than for 

PM emissions are steadily increasing on a par with increasing 

ICEVs. Research on these impacts is less extensive than for the 

transport demand and have already overtaken exhaust PM 

climate impacts. However, it cannot be taken for granted that 

emissions in importance.

BEVs perform better than ICEVs for all non-climate impacts 

(8) 

 Excel spreadsheets accompanying the EU Reference Scenario 2020 report.

73

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandLooking to the future

(EEA, 2018). For example, the life cycle analysis study by 

2020). Circular strategies can contribute to improving this. 

Del Pero et al. (2018) light duty vehicles are responsible 

The United Nations Environment Programme International 

for roughly 10% of total energy use and air emissions. As 

Resource Panel (IRP, 2020) found that, of all circular strategies, 

a consequence, the need for higher fuel/energy efficiency 

the largest reductions in life cycle GHG emissions can be 

in both conventional and electric cars has become urgent 

attained by improving material efficiency on the consumption 

and the efforts across industrial and research players have 

side through car- and ride-sharing and a shift towards smaller 

proposed a range of innovative solutions with great potential. 

vehicle sizes. Shared vehicle fleets allow people to consider 

This study presents a comparative Life Cycle Assessment 

alternative means of transport (such as electric bikes (e-bikes) 

of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE points out that impacts 

or e-cargobikes) and to choose trip-appropriate vehicle sizes. 

such as resource depletion, acidification, human toxicity 

Shared rides mean increasing the occupancy rate of vehicles, 

or air pollution may be higher for BEVs than ICEVs, mainly 

thus reducing the number of vehicles on the road.

because of the environmental impacts occurring during 

vehicle manufacture. These impacts can be mitigated, as 

In the future it will be important to manage transport demand 

decarbonisation and other environmental policies also affect 

so that it does not make decarbonising transport difficult. For 

manufacturing processes, encouraging more environmentally 

example, in the case of automated transport, without additional 

friendly practices.

policies the ease of travelling could lead to a large increase in 

transport demand (Franckx, 2021). This would have implications 

In addition, rebound effects are a challenge for 'improve' 
policies in transport, as for any policy promoting efficiency, 

for the amount of renewable electricity that is needed for 

transport and therefore also for the electricity market as a 

both material and energy efficiency (IRP, 2020). For instance, 

whole. On the other hand, a larger uptake of shared vehicles 

enhancing logistic efficiency will reduce the cost of freight 

could make it easier to manage the problem of finding enough 

transport and hence increase the demand for it. Subsidies 

raw materials for EV batteries if it leads to fewer cars per 

for more efficient cars and the greater fuel efficiency of 

capita (Harris et al., 2021).

cars will reduce the cost per vehicle-kilometre and hence 

increase travel distances. The rebound effect can also work 

via income: the money saved as a result of greater efficiency 

is spent on other forms of consumption, including trips. There 

is also a location effect: people might choose to live in a more 

remote location, further from their place of employment. 

Finally, the latent demand contributes to rebound effects in 

It can be concluded that, in addition to more efficient vehicles 
and fuels, other measures contributing to sustainable 
road transport are needed. The whole avoid-shift-improve 
framework needs to be harnessed. As stated in The European 
environment — state and outlook 2020 (EEA, 2019c): 'the 
fundamental issue is not how to create a more sustainable 

road transport: people scared off by high levels of congestion 

car, but rather how to meet society's need for point-to-point 

will again travel by car if congestion levels are reduced.

mobility and, perhaps more fundamentally, for social 

7.2.2  Comprehensive approach to road transport 

decarbonisation

interaction and access to goods and services. Transition for 

sustainable mobility will require innovations and changes in 
social norms, values and lifestyles.' International institutions 
such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and 

Development (OECD, 2020) and the International Resource 

Making the vehicle fleet electric and more efficient is an 

Panel (IRP, 2020) recommend combining efficiency policies with 

effective way to contribute to decarbonisation and has 

policies that optimise demand, such as taxes, road pricing or 

some co-benefits for other environmental aspects of road 

cap-and-trade programmes to avoid strong rebound effects. 

transport. However, challenges with rebound effects and 
other environmental impacts mean that the extent of their 

contribution to other aspects of sustainable road transport is 

Considering all road transport externalities, the OECD promotes 
a broader approach, with optimising the vehicle-kilometres 
travelled a key component of the transport policy mix, 

limited. Important contributions to reductions in greenhouse 

especially in urban areas.

gas (GHG) emissions could also come from changes in 

transport demand and modal shifts, which would also reduce 

The combined move towards clean vehicles and fuels, 

the other environmental impacts of road transport.

together with other policy measures, will not only contribute 

to faster reductions in GHG emissions and external costs of 

For example, emissions could be limited by a reduction in 

road transport but also to a better quality of life in cities and 

the number and/or length of passenger trips, by improving 

neighbourhoods, with low-traffic streets enhancing social 

load factors, or by a modal shift to less polluting transport 

cohesion, more accessible transport for all and strengthened 

modes. From the point of view of material use, individual car 

local economies.

transport is not efficient. On average, a European car has a 

utilisation rate of only 2%. This value is obtained considering 

that 92% of the time it is parked, standing still in traffic 

jams or searching for parking spots, and is used by only 1.5 

passengers on average (SYSTEMIQ and The Club of Rome, 

74

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demand© Rossana Grecchi, Climate Change PIX/EEA

Abbreviations, symbols  
and units

ACEA

AFID

ASI

BEV

CH4

CO2

CO2e

European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Directive

Avoid, shift, improve

Battery electric vehicle

Methane

Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide equivalent

COVID‑19

Coronavirus disease 2019

EEA

EAFO

EPBD

ETS

EU‑27

EV

FCEV

FQD

GHG 

HDV

HGV

HVO

ICEV

ILUC

kW

kWh

LCA

LPG

European Environment Agency

European Alternative Fuels Observatory

Energy Performance of Buildings Directive

Emissions Trading System

27 Member States of the European Union

Electric vehicle

Fuel cell electric vehicle

Fuel Quality Directive

Greenhouse gas

Heavy-duty vehicle

Heavy goods vehicle

Hydrotreated vegetable oil

Internal combustion engine vehicle

Indirect land use change

Kilowatt

Kilowatt hour

Life cycle analysis

Liquefied petroleum gas

LULUCF

Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry

MJ

Mt

N2O

NECP

Megajoule

Million tonnes

Nitrous oxide

National Energy and Climate Plan

76

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandAbbreviations, symbols  and units

NEDC

NOx

OECD

PHEV

PJ

PM

R&D

RED 

SUV

TTW

New European Driving Cycle

Nitrogen oxides

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle

Petajoule

Particulate matter

Research and Development

Renewable Energy Directive

Sport utility vehicle

Tank-to-wheel

WLTP

World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure

WTT

WTW

ZLEV

Well-to-tank

Well-to-wheel

Zero and low emission vehicle

77

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and buildings', Clean Energy Wire (https://www.cleanenergywire.

agreement) accessed 3 May 2021.

org/factsheets/germanys-planned-carbon-pricing-system-

transport-and-buildings) accessed 18 October 2021.

UNFCCC, 2013, Decision 24/CP.19 — Revision of the UNFCCC 

reporting guidelines on annual inventories for Parties included 

in Annex I to the Convention (24/CP.19).

84

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandAnnex 1  
Approach used for the 
decomposition analysis

General methodology used for the 
decomposition analysis

in previous analyses (EEA, 2015, 2019a). More details on the 

approach can be found in Ang (2004, 2005).

The decomposition analysis presented in Chapter 3 uses 

the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, as used 

For the analysis for CO2 emissions from passenger cars, the 
LDMI is based on the following equation:

CO2,cars  =  Pkmall

.

Pkmcars

Pkmall

.

EnergyCar transport

EnergyFuels,cars

.

.

EnergyFF,cars

.

CO2,cars

Pkmall

EnergyCar transport

EnergyFuels,cars

EnergyFF,cars

Parameter description:

total electricity consumption by road transport and does 

not make a distinction between different vehicle types. 

•  CO2,cars — the CO2 emissions from car transport.

Therefore, the effect of electrification is estimated by 

assuming that all electricity for road transport, as reported 

•  Pkmall — passenger transport activity — the number of 

by Eurostat in the energy balances, is used by passenger 

passenger-kilometres travelled by the following passenger 

cars. This is an over-estimation, as it does not consider the 

transport modes: passenger cars, powered two-wheelers, 

energy used by electric buses and other road vehicles.

bus and coach, railway, tram and metro. While the last three 

modes do not have exhaust emissions, they are included, 

• 

as this allows the evolution of the modal shares in the 

EnergyFF,cars/EnergyFuels,cars — biofuel effect — expressed 
as the fossil fuel share. Biofuels are taken to be 

decomposition analysis to be taken into account.

carbon neutral.

•  Pkmcars/Pkmall — modal share — the share of 

passenger-kilometres travelled by car in overall passenger 

transport activity.

EnergyCar transport/Pkmcars — energy efficiency — the energy 
consumption per car passenger-kilometre, i.e. energy 

efficiency.

•  CO2,cars/EnergyFF,cars — carbon intensity of fossil fuels — the 
CO2 emissions per unit of fossil fuel used by passenger 
cars. This carbon intensity factor is a weighted average of 

the emission factors of the different fossil fuels included 
in the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventory. The 

weights are the share in the fossil fuel consumption of the 

following fuels: petrol, diesel oil, liquefied petroleum gas, 

gaseous fuels and other fossil fuels.

• 

• 

EnergyFuels,cars/EnergyCar transport — effect of electrification  — 
the share of non-electric energy (fuels) in the energy 

consumption of car transport. The Eurostat data set reports 

For the decomposition analysis of the CO2 emissions by heavy 
goods vehicles (HGVs) a similar equation is used:

CO2,HGV  =  Tkmall

.

TkmHGV

Tkmall

.

EnergyHGV transport

EnergyFuels,HGV

.

.

EnergyFF,HGV

.

CO2,HGV

TkmHGV

EnergyHGV transport

EnergyFuels,HGV

EnergyFF,HGV

85

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandAnnex 1  Approach used for the decomposition analysis

with the following parameters:

•  CO2,HGV — the CO2 emissions of heavy goods vehicles.

• 

Tkmall — freight transport activity — the number of 
tonne-kilometres travelled by the following freight transport 

In the GHG emissions inventory, emissions of heavy-duty trucks 

are reported together with the emissions of buses and coaches 

(collectively attributed to entry 'heavy-duty vehicles'). Historical 
data for the years 2005, 2010 and 2015, which underpin the EU 
Reference Scenario 2020 (EC, 2021e), were used to determine 
the share of HGVs in the energy consumption and emissions of 

modes: inland waterway, railway and road transport. In 

HDVs. For the intermediate years, the shares were interpolated. 

comparison with the decomposition analysis in EEA (2015) 

For the period before 2005, the share is taken to be the same 

light-duty trucks (<3.5 tonnes) were not considered in the 

as in 2005, and for the period after 2015 the share of 2015 is 

total demand because insufficient data were available.

applied. Because of these assumptions, the analysis for HGV is 

• 

• 

• 

TkmHGV/Tkmall — the modal share — the modal share of 
HGVs (>3.5 tonnes).

EnergyHGV Transport/TkmHGV — energy efficiency — energy 
consumed per freight transport tonne-kilometre by HGVs.

EnergyFF,HGV/EnergyHGV transport — biofuel effect — the share of 
fossil fuels in the energy consumption of HGVs. Biofuels are 

assumed to be climate neutral.

subject to more uncertainty than that for passenger cars.

For both passenger cars and heavy goods vehicles, the 

decomposition analysis was also conducted for emissions of 
methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), weighted by their global 
warming potential: 25 for CH4 and 298 for N2O. The analysis 
used a similar methodology as used in the case of the CO2 
emissions. However, the biofuel share was not considered as 

a factor because the GHG emissions inventory also takes into 
account the CH4 and N2O emissions related to biomass in the 
GHG emissions from road transport.

•  CO2,HGV/EnergyFF,HGV — carbon intensity of fossil fuels — the 

CO2 emissions per unit of fossil fuel used by HGVs.

Data sources

In the period 2000-2019 the number of electric HGVs was still 

The decomposition analysis was carried out for the period 

very small. Therefore, this factor was not considered in the 

2000-2019, for the 27 Member States of the EU. Table A1.1 

decomposition analysis for HGVs.

gives an overview of the data sources that were used for the 

decomposition analysis.

Table A1.1 

Data sources for the decomposition analyses

Parameter

Symbol

Data source

Decomposition analysis: passenger cars

GHG emissions from passenger cars 
(CO2, CH4 and N2O)

Greenhouse gas emissions inventory (EEA, 2021d)

Total inland passenger-kilometres

Pkmall

Statistical pocket book 2021 (EC, 2021f)

Total car passenger-kilometres

Pkmcars

Statistical pocket book 2021 (EC, 2021f) 

Energy consumption by passenger cars

EnergyCar transport

Eurostat, complete energy balances (Eurostat, 2021) 

Non-electric energy consumption (fuels) 
by passenger cars

EnergyFuels,cars

Greenhouse gas emissions inventory (EEA, 2021d)

The consumption of fossil fuels by 
passenger cars

EnergyFF,cars

Greenhouse gas emissions inventory (EEA, 2021d)

86

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandAnnex 1  Approach used for the decomposition analysis

Table A1.1 

Data sources for the decomposition analyses (cont.)

Decomposition analysis: heavy goods vehicles

GHG emissions from heavy goods 
vehicles (CO2, CH4 and N2O)

Greenhouse gas emissions inventory (EEA, 2021d) (a)

Total inland freight transport (tonne-km) Tkmall

Statistical pocket book 2021 (EC, 2021f)

Total tonne-km transported by heavy 
goods vehicles

Energy consumption by heavy goods 
vehicles

TkmHGV

Statistical pocket book 2021 (EC, 2021f)

EnergyHGV

Greenhouse gas emissions inventory (EEA, 2021d) (a)

The consumption of fossil fuels by heavy 
goods vehicles

EnergyFF,HGV

Greenhouse gas emissions inventory (EEA, 2021d) (a)

(a) 

The share of emissions and energy consumption by HGVs in the emissions and energy consumption of the category heavy-duty 
trucks/ buses in the GHG emission inventory is based on EC (2021e).

87

Transport and environment report 2021 | Decarbonising road transport — the role of vehicles, fuels and transport demandEuropean Environment Agency

Transport and environment report 2021
Decarbonising road transport — the role ofvehicles, fuels and transport demand

2022 — 87 pp. — 21 x 29.7 cm

ISBN  978-92-9480-473-0 
doi:10.2800/68902

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