COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Fiscal Statistical Tables providing background data relevant for the assessment of the 2022 Stability and Convergence Programmes Accompanying the document Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the 2022 National Reform Programme and delivering a Council opinion on the 2022 Stability/Convergence Programme of Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland and Sweden
Date: 2022-05-23
Institutions: European Commission, Secretariat-General
Subjects: EU Member State, economic policy, economic recovery, economic reform, energy policy, public finance, stability pact, stability programme

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 23.5.2022  SWD(2022) 640 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Fiscal Statistical Tables providing background data relevant for the assessment of the 2022 Stability and Convergence Programmes Accompanying the document Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the 2022 National Reform Programme and delivering a Council opinion on the 2022 Stability/Convergence Programme of Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland and Sweden {COM(2022) 601} - {COM(2022) 602} - {COM(2022) 603} - {COM(2022) 604} - {COM(2022) 605} - {COM(2022) 606} - {COM(2022) 607} - {COM(2022) 608} - {COM(2022) 609} - {COM(2022) 610} - {COM(2022) 611} - {COM(2022) 612} - {COM(2022) 613} - {COM(2022) 614} - {COM(2022) 615} - {COM(2022) 616} - {COM(2022) 617} - {COM(2022) 618} - {COM(2022) 619} - {COM(2022) 620} - {COM(2022) 621} - {COM(2022) 622} - {COM(2022) 623} - {COM(2022) 624} - {COM(2022) 625} - {COM(2022) 626} - {COM(2022) 627}  
 
 
These Fiscal Statistical Tables provide background data relevant for the assessment of the Member 
States’ 2022 Stability and Convergence Programmes. For each Member State, the following tables 
are provided: 

Table 1 (Macroeconomic developments and forecasts) shows the main macroeconomic data 
–  real  GDP  growth  and  main  expenditure  components,  output  gap,  employment,  unemployment, 
labour  productivity, 
the  net 
borrowing/lending vis-à-vis the rest of the world.  

inflation,  GDP  deflator,  compensation  of  employees,  and 

The figures from the Stability or Convergence Programme are shown side-by side with those of the 
Commission 2022 spring forecast (for which the cut-off date was 29 April 2022).  

Table 2 (Main indicators for fiscal surveillance) includes the relevant indicators that are used 
for fiscal surveillance at this stage. It also shows the standard Stability and Growth Pact indicators. 

Table  3  (General  government  budgetary  position)  shows  data  on  the  main  revenue  and 
expenditure  variables  and  the  deficit/surplus  in  the  Stability  or  Convergence  Programme,  in 
comparison  with  the  Commission  forecast.  The  table  also  includes  a  number  of  additional 
indicators used for the assessment of the budgetary projections in the Programme (1). 

Table  4  (General  government  debt  developments)  shows  year-on-year  developments  in 
general  government  debt  and  provides  a  breakdown  of  the  change  in  the  debt  ratio  as  per  the 
primary balance, the snowball effect (reflecting the relationship between GDP growth and interest 
expenditure) and the stock-flow adjustment (i.e. other elements that have an impact on the debt, 
such  as  differences  between  cash  and  accrual  recording  or  the  net  accumulation  of  financial 
assets).  

Table 5 (Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators) contains information on 
debt sustainability indicators over the short, medium and long terms (the so-called S0, S1 and S2 
indicators). The figures reported  in the table are based on the Commission 2022 spring forecast; 
they update the indicators recently published in the Fiscal Sustainability Report 2021 (2). 

Table  6  (RRF  –  Grants)  presents  data  on  grants  from  the  Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility 
included in  the  Programme’s  revenue  projections, their    cash  disbursements,  and  the  expenditure 
categories (or other costs) financed by those grants. 

Table 7 (RRF – Loans) presents data on cash disbursements and repayments of loans from/to the 
Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility  included  in  the  Programme’s  projections,  and  the  expenditure 
categories (or other costs) financed by those loans. 

Table  8  (Guarantees  adopted/announced  according  to  the  Programme)  presents  the  main 
guarantee schemes in place, in particular those adopted/announced since spring 2020 in response 

(1)  For the Stability or Convergence Programmes, the output gap used for the cyclical adjustment is recalculated by the 

Commission services based on the macroeconomic scenario in the Programmes using the commonly agreed methodology.  

(2)  Fiscal Sustainability Report 2021, European Economy-Institutional Papers, 171, vol. 1 and 2.  

1 

 
 
 
                                                 
to the COVID-19 outbreak and related economic recession, as reported by the Member State. The 
table also provides the take-up of those guarantee schemes, if the information is available. 

The differences between the projections in the 2022 Programmes and the Commission 2022 spring 
forecast  may  result  from  different  assumptions  for  the  macroeconomic  outlook  and  on  the 
implementation of the Member State’s Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRP).  

2 

 
Box 1: 

Indicators  used 
Programmes 

in  the  assessment  of  the  Stability  and  Convergence 

Traditionally, the fiscal stance is defined as a measure of the year-on-year change in the general 
government’s  budgetary  position.  It  may  serve  to  measure  the  impact  of  fiscal  policy  on 
aggregate  demand  in  an  economy,  as  well  as  the  speed  at  which  the  underlying  budgetary 
situation converges towards  medium-term fiscal targets. Using the same indicator to gauge two 
different  concepts  was  appropriate  under  the  assumption  that  government  expenditure  was 
funded entirely by national revenue sources and debt financing, without large external transfers. 
However,  in  the  presence  of  sizeable  transfers  from  the  EU  budget  (such  as  those  from  the 
Recovery and Resilience Facility or other EU grants), conventional indicators do not capture the 
additional fiscal impulse provided by the EU budget as the related national expenditure is offset 
by corresponding revenue from the EU.  

The fiscal stance reported in Table 2 aims to assess the economic impulse stemming from fiscal 
policies,  both those that are nationally financed  and those that are financed by the EU budget. 
It measures the change in primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, including 
changes  in  expenditure  financed  by  the  RRF  and  other  EU  grants).  Taking  into  account  the 
exceptional circumstances created by the impact of the  COVID-19 pandemic, it excludes crisis-
related  temporary  emergency  measures,  relative  to  the  10-year  average  potential  growth 
rate. (3) (4)  

(1 + 𝑃𝑜𝑡𝑡) ∗ (1 + 𝜋𝑡) ∗ 𝐸𝑡−1 − 𝐸𝑡 + ∆𝑅𝑀𝑡
𝑌𝑡

Where 𝐸𝑡 = 𝐺𝑡 − 𝐼𝑡 − 𝑈𝑡 −  𝑜𝑛𝑒_𝑜𝑓𝑓𝑠𝑡

𝐺(−𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑔. 𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑝. 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡

𝐺).  

The  expenditure  aggregate  comprises  primary  expenditure  (total  expenditure  G  minus  interest 
expenditure I), net of cyclical unemployment benefits U and one-off expenditure. ∆RM stands for 
the  incremental  budgetary  impact  of  revenue  measures  (other  than  one-offs)  excluding  crisis-
related temporary emergency measures.  

Table  2  also  presents  a  fiscal  stance  as  computed  in  normal  times,  that  is  without  excluding 
crisis-related temporary emergency measures.  

Table  3  also  monitors  the  growth  rate  of  nationally  financed  net  (primary)  expenditure.  In 
general, the net expenditure aggregate is calculated as: 

𝐸𝑡 + ∆𝑅𝑀𝑡 = 𝐺𝑡 − 𝐼𝑡 − 𝑈𝑡 − 𝐸𝑈𝑡 −  𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑜𝑓𝑓𝑠 𝑡

𝐺 + ∆𝑅𝑀𝑡 

The  aggregate  is  very  similar  to  the  one  used  for  the  fiscal  stance,  but  excludes  expenditure 
financed  by  the  EU  budget.  Table  3  presents  an  aggregate  where  G  is  calculated  as  general 
government  expenditure  excluding/including  changes  in  crisis-related  temporary  emergency 
measures,  and  ∆RM  representing  the  incremental  budgetary  impact  of  discretionary  revenue 
measures  excluding/including crisis-related temporary emergency measures.  

(3)  Crisis-related emergency measures generally aimed at addressing the public health situation and compensating workers 
and firms for income losses due to lockdown measures and supply chain disruptions. These measures were mostly of a 
temporary nature, but their impact was contingent on the development of the health situation. While useful in the initial 
phase of the crisis, these measures are likely to be less efficient to support the recovery when the health related 
emergency gradually wanes.  

(4)  The computations of the fiscal stance based on the Stability or Convergence Programmes assume no impact of crisis 

related temporary emergency measures in 2023 and beyond.  

3 

 
 
                                                 
 
 
 
 
 
5 

12 

18 

23 

29 

35 

41 

46 

51 

56 

61 

67 

72 

78 

83 

89 

94 

100 

105 

111 

117 

122 

127 

132 

138 

143 

149 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1. 

2. 

3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

8. 

9. 

Belgium 

 Bulgaria 

Czechia 

Denmark 

Germany 

Estonia 

Ireland 

Greece 

Spain 

10.  France 

11.  Croatia 

12. 

Italy 

13.  Cyprus 

14.  Latvia 

15.  Lithuania 

16.  Luxembourg 

17.  Hungary 

18.  Malta 

19.  The Netherlands 

20.  Austria 

21.  Poland 

22.  Portugal 

23.  Romania 

24.  Slovenia 

25.  Slovakia 

26.  Finland 

27.  Sweden 

4 

 
 
 
 
 
 
1. BELGIUM 

Table 1.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

5 

2024202520262027COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)6.26.12.03.01.81.91.51.31.31.2Private consumption (% change)6.46.34.25.92.51.91.81.41.41.4Gross fixed capital formation (% change)7.89.6-0.12.63.03.51.70.41.10.8Exports of goods and services (% change)9.69.03.35.23.93.93.13.13.33.1Imports of goods and services (% change)9.18.53.65.94.14.03.23.03.43.0Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand6.15.72.23.52.02.01.61.21.41.2- Change in inventories-0.5-0.90.0-0.3000000- Net exports0.60.5-0.2-0.5-0.3-0.1-0.10.1-0.10Output gap1-1.0-1.4-0.5-0.2-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10Employment (% change)1.81.71.01.20.80.80.80.70.70.7Unemployment rate (%)6.36.35.85.95.65.85.55.45.45.3Labour productivity (% change)4.44.41.01.81.01.10.80.60.60.6HICP inflation (%)3.22.47.85.51.91.11.21.51.61.6GDP deflator (% change)4.54.34.53.33.01.31.41.31.51.6Comp. of employees (per head, % change)4.23.56.07.15.53.91.92.02.32.3Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)0.71.0-0.9-0.7-0.50.30.60.50.30.2202120222023 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 1.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Belgium 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

6 

202120242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   1.0-2.4n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.1-0.2n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments00.0n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.1-0.1n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.9-2.1n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)12.30.00.20.41.91.0n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark2.40.40.80.32.00.9n.a.Change in the structural balance1.20.1-0.70.41.60.20.720222023(% of GDP) 
   
 
 
Table 1.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Belgium 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

7 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue49.349.048.949.049.749.849.90.6of which:- Taxes on production and imports13.413.213.013.313.313.313.2-0.2- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.15.615.515.615.415.615.816.00.4- Social contributions15.115.015.015.215.415.315.40.3- Other (residual)5.25.25.35.15.45.45.30.1RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.40.30.30.30.20.10.0Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00000000Expenditure54.854.054.253.453.353.252.6-2.2of which:- Primary expenditure53.152.552.852.051.951.851.2-1.9of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption16.516.516.416.416.216.015.8-0.7Compensation of employees12.312.412.312.412.312.111.9-0.4Intermediate consumption4.24.14.24.03.93.93.8-0.4Social payments26.026.026.026.025.725.926.00.0Subsidies4.23.93.83.73.83.73.7-0.5Gross fixed capital formation2.72.83.02.83.13.22.90.2Other (residual)3.83.43.53.13.12.92.9-0.9- Interest expenditure1.71.41.41.41.41.41.4-0.3Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.30.20.30.20.20.20.2General government balance (GGB)-5.5-5.0-5.2-4.4-3.6-3.4-2.72.8Primary balance-3.9-3.5-3.9-3.1-2.2-2.1-1.32.6GGB excl. one-offs-5.2-4.8-5.2-4.4-3.6-3.4-2.72.5Expenditure aggregate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)1.45.55.03.60.62.3n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)3.810.7n.a.4.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)1.35.23.93.30.22.3n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)3.910.8n.a.4.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)16.06.06.04.44.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-1.0-0.5-0.2-0.3-0.1-0.1-0.11.2Cyclically-adjusted balance2-4.9-4.7-5.1-4.2-3.5-3.3-2.62.1One-offs-0.3-0.10.0-0.10.00.00.00.3Structural balance3-4.6-4.5-5.1-4.2-3.5-3.3-2.61.8Structural primary balance3-3.0-3.1-3.7-2.8-2.1-1.9-1.21.520222023(% of GDP) 
          
 
 
Table 1.4:  General government debt developments 

Belgium 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP) 

Table 1.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

8 

Average202420252016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio1103.5108.2107.5108.0107.6108.8109.7110.1Change in the ratio1.5-4.6-0.7-0.20.00.81.00.4Contributions2:1. Primary balance0.83.93.53.93.12.22.11.32. “Snow-ball” effect0.4-9.3-5.2-5.1-3.5-2.0-1.7-1.4Of which:Interest expenditure2.21.71.41.41.41.41.41.4Growth effect-0.2-6.3-2.0-3.0-1.8-2.0-1.6-1.4Inflation effect-1.7-4.6-4.6-3.4-3.1-1.3-1.5-1.43. Stock-flow adjustment0.41.11.11.10.50.50.60.520222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term6.6HIGH risk5.3HIGH riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]7.0HIGH risk5.4MEDIUM riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]HIGH riskHIGH risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]117.1109.2Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]HIGH risk 
   
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 1.6:  RRF - Grants 

Belgium 

Source: National authorities. 

9 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.10.30.30.20.10.1Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.20.20.30.20.10.12020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0Interest expenditure D.41n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0Current transfers D.7n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.00.10.10.10.10Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.00.10.10.10.10Capital transfers D.9n.a.000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.00.20.20.10.102020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.000000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
           
 
 
Table 1.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Belgium 

Source: National authorities. 

10 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0000000Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
           
 
 
Table 1.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Belgium 

Source: National authorities. 

11 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Loan Guarantee Scheme for Viable Non-Financial Enterprises, SMEs, Self-employed and Non-Profit Organisations - Guarantee I 27/03/20209.30.0Loan Guarantee Scheme for SMEs - Guarantee II 20/07/20201.90.1Gigarent: guarantee scheme above € 1.5 millionadopted0.30.0Subtotal     11.40.1Other temporary guarantees (Wallonia) 1.31.3Other guarantees (French Community)0.20.1Other guarantees (Flemmish Region)2.52.2Other guarantees (Brussels region)0.70.6Guarantees to public companies (Federal)0.50.5Guarantees to the financial sector  (Federal)19/12/20128.14.6Guarantees - various (Federal)00Subtotal 13.29.4Total24.69.5In response to COVID-19Others 
   
 
 
 
2.  BULGARIA 

Table 2.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2022 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 

Table 2.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2022 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 

12 

20242025COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)4.24.22.12.63.12.83.63.4Private consumption (% change)8.08.02.82.43.05.44.84.4Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-11.0-11.04.07.66.99.06.09.9Exports of goods and services (% change)9.99.94.54.14.24.05.84.6Imports of goods and services (% change)12.212.25.05.44.56.16.56.8Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand3.43.42.43.33.34.23.94.7- Change in inventories1.91.90.00.10.00.10.10.1- Net exports-1.1-1.1-0.3-0.8-0.2-1.5-0.4-1.4Output gap1-1.0-1.2-0.4-0.71.0-0.40.71.5Employment (% change)0.20.20.21.70.40.81.00.6Unemployment rate (%)5.35.35.45.05.34.84.44.2Labour productivity (% change)4.04.01.90.92.72.02.62.8HICP inflation (%)2.82.811.910.45.05.12.72.3GDP deflator (% change)6.26.29.58.23.96.13.72.7Comp. of employees (per head, % change)9.59.59.78.17.79.28.27.6Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-0.40.30.7-0.70.51.20.81.1202120222023202120242025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -0.6-3.4n.a.-1.3n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds0.2-1.1n.a.-0.7n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.3-1.1n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.10.1n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.0-1.4n.a.-0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-2.0-0.90.40.51.20.5n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-2.71.71.90.72.00.3n.a.Change in the structural balance-0.90.30.70.80.4-0.40.220222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
          
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 2.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

 Bulgaria 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2022 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 

13 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPRevenue39.040.238.040.738.037.036.2-2.8of which:- Taxes on production and imports16.116.715.916.615.715.315.0-1.1- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.46.16.56.66.46.36.2-0.2- Social contributions9.39.29.29.39.29.29.2-0.1- Other (residual)7.28.26.48.26.76.25.8-1.4RRF grants as included in the revenue projections1.00.52.11.31.11.0n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure43.143.943.343.140.939.838.6-4.5of which:- Primary expenditure42.643.342.842.640.339.037.8-4.8of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption17.116.717.216.515.714.713.7-3.4Compensation of employees11.711.210.811.110.19.69.3-2.4Intermediate consumption5.45.56.35.55.65.04.5-0.9Social payments15.415.215.414.714.614.714.6-0.8Subsidies3.83.43.12.72.32.22.1-1.7Gross fixed capital formation3.35.04.85.45.45.35.32.0Other (residual)3.03.12.33.22.32.22.1-0.9- Interest expenditure0.50.50.50.50.60.80.80.3Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.01.0n.a.2.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.General government balance (GGB)-4.1-3.7-5.3-2.4-2.9-2.8-2.41.7Primary balance-3.6-3.1-4.8-1.9-2.3-2.0-1.62.0GGB excl. one-offs-4.1-3.7-3.2-2.4-2.7-2.8-2.41.7Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)14.511.07.82.70.54.8n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)10.518.6n.a.7.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)17.68.27.21.9-0.84.5n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)11.516.1n.a.7.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)18.311.511.55.75.7n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-1.0-0.4-0.71.0-0.40.71.52.7Cyclically-adjusted balance2-3.8-3.5-5.1-2.7-2.8-3.0-2.80.9One-offs0.00.0-2.10.0-0.20.00.00.0Structural balance3-3.8-3.5-3.0-2.7-2.6-3.0-2.80.9Structural primary balance3-3.3-3.0-2.5-2.2-2.0-2.2-2.01.220222023(% of GDP) 
          
 
 
Table 2.4:  General government debt developments 

 Bulgaria 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP), Comission calculations. 

Table 2.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 convergence programme. 

14 

Average202420252016-2020COMCPCOMCPCPCPGross debt ratio124.225.125.325.525.627.729.130.4Change in the ratio-0.20.40.20.40.32.21.41.3Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.03.63.14.81.92.32.01.62. “Snow-ball” effect-0.7-1.8-2.1-1.9-1.1-1.5-1.1-0.9Of which:Interest expenditure0.70.50.50.50.50.60.80.8Growth effect-0.4-0.9-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.9-0.9Inflation effect-1.0-1.4-2.1-1.8-0.9-1.4-0.9-0.73. Stock-flow adjustment1.5-1.3-0.8-2.4-0.41.40.50.620222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term-1.2LOW risk-0.6LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]3.7MEDIUM risk3.9MEDIUM riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]LOW riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]36.840.7Commission scenarioConvergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
     
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 2.6:  RRF - Grants 

 Bulgaria 

Source: National authorities. 

15 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.0.51.31.11n.a.Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.n.a.0000n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.n.a.n.a.000n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.n.a.n.a.000n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.n.a.n.a.000n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.n.a.n.a.000n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.n.a.n.a.000n.a.Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.n.a.0.51.31.11n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.n.a.0.51.31.11n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
           
 
 
Table 2.7:  RRF - LOANS 

 Bulgaria 

Source: National authorities. 

16 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.000000Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.000000Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.000000Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.000000Interest expenditure D.41n.a.000000Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.000000Current transfers D.7n.a.000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.000000Capital transfers D.9n.a.000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.000000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
           
 
 
Table 2.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

 Bulgaria 

Source: National authorities. 

17 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)1. European instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, between the Re-public of Bulgaria and the European Commission.18.09.20200.10.12. Contribution agreement between the Republic of Bulgaria and EIB in relation to the Pan-European Guarantee Fund.09.10.20200.10.1Subtotal     0.20.21. Guarantee for financing of a project for the construction of a cross-border pipe-line between the Greek and Bulgarian gas transmission systems.12.20190.10.14. Guarantee in accordance with the Stu-dents and Doctoral Students Lending Act8.20090.10Subtotal 0.20.1Total0.40.3In response to COVID-19Others 
  
 
3. CZECHIA 

Table 3.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2022 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 

Table 3.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2022 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 

18 

20242025COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)3.33.31.91.22.73.63.22.4Private consumption (% change)4.44.42.00.52.04.54.03.5Gross fixed capital formation (% change)0.90.63.12.25.65.90.10.2Exports of goods and services (% change)5.15.11.21.53.54.23.72.5Imports of goods and services (% change)11.511.51.21.33.64.01.91.4Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand2.62.81.81.02.73.92.22.0- Change in inventories4.54.30.00.00.0-0.4-0.3-0.4- Net exports-3.8-3.80.10.10.00.21.30.9Output gap1-2.4-2.4-2.2-3.0-1.2-1.30.10.8Employment (% change)0.10.12.22.10.31.30.20.1Unemployment rate (%)2.82.82.62.52.62.62.42.3Labour productivity (% change)3.23.2-0.3-0.92.42.33.02.3HICP inflation (%)3.33.311.711.34.54.22.02.0GDP deflator (% change)4.14.07.46.94.74.12.52.2Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.75.62.42.05.34.03.83.9Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-1.1-0.6-1.9-1.6-1.8-1.00.41.0202120222023202120242025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -1.30.1n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds0.0-1.0n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.00.6n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.4-0.3n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.60.7n.a.0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-0.62.31.40.30.72.1n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-0.93.62.2-0.11.01.3n.a.Change in the structural balance-0.81.92.4-0.4-0.2-0.2-0.120222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 3.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Czechia 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2022 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 

19 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPRevenue40.540.240.439.840.038.537.6-2.9of which:- Taxes on production and imports11.511.411.511.411.511.411.2-0.3- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.86.56.66.56.66.66.5-0.3- Social contributions16.615.816.015.515.615.215.0-1.6- Other (residual)5.76.56.36.46.35.34.9-0.8RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.90.80.70.60.60.20Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00000000Expenditure46.444.545.043.743.241.440.3-6.1of which:- Primary expenditure45.743.644.142.842.240.339.1-6.6of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption16.816.016.315.815.715.215.0-1.8Compensation of employees11.010.210.310.09.89.69.5-1.5Intermediate consumption5.85.86.05.85.85.75.6-0.2Social payments17.817.217.417.217.116.716.3-1.5Subsidies3.32.42.42.12.01.91.8-1.5Gross fixed capital formation4.74.94.75.24.94.03.6-1.1Other (residual)3.23.13.32.62.62.52.5-0.7- Interest expenditure0.70.90.90.91.01.11.20.5Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.20.70.80.70.60.50.20General government balance (GGB)-5.9-4.3-4.5-3.9-3.2-2.9-2.73.2Primary balance-5.1-3.4-3.6-3.0-2.3-1.8-1.53.6GGB excl. one-offs-5.9-3.9-3.7-3.9-3.3-2.9-2.73.1Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)7.81.63.65.64.62.8n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)9.76.8n.a.6.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)9.42.82.25.24.13.7n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)11.07.5n.a.5.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)16.49.59.56.76.7n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-2.4-2.2-3.0-1.2-1.30.10.83.2Cyclically-adjusted balance2-4.9-3.4-3.3-3.5-2.7-2.9-3.01.9One-offs0.0-0.4-0.80.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-4.9-3.1-2.5-3.5-2.7-3.0-3.01.9Structural primary balance3-4.2-2.1-1.6-2.5-1.7-1.9-1.82.320222023(% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 3.4:  General government debt developments 

Czechia 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2022 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 

Table 3.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 convergence programme. 

20 

Average202420252016-2020COMCPCOMCPCPCPGross debt ratio134.141.942.842.744.043.444.445.4Change in the ratio-0.44.20.90.81.20.70.91.1Contributions2:1. Primary balance-0.35.13.43.63.02.31.81.52. “Snow-ball” effect-0.7-1.8-2.6-2.2-2.0-2.1-1.3-0.8Of which:Interest expenditure0.80.70.90.90.91.01.11.2Growth effect-0.6-1.2-0.7-0.4-1.1-1.4-1.3-1.0Inflation effect-0.8-1.4-2.8-2.7-1.9-1.6-1.0-0.93. Stock-flow adjustment0.60.90.2-0.60.20.60.40.420222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term1.9MEDIUM risk0.9MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]7.1HIGH risk6.2HIGH riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]MEDIUM riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]61.448.8Commission scenarioConvergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.2 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 3.6:  RRF - Grants 

Czechia 

Source: National authorities. 

21 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.20.80.60.60.20.2Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.00.30.10.10.10.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.0.20.50.50.40.10Capital transfers D.9n.a.000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0.20.50.50.40.102020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.000000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 3.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Czechia 

Source: National authorities. 

Table 3.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Source: National authorities. 

22 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0000000Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)COVID II Guarantee20200.20.2COVID III Guarantee20200.70.7COVID Plus Guarantee20200.30.3National Guarantee Programme20200.10.1Expansion - Guarantee Programme20200.10.1Subtotal     1.51.5Guarantees provided by local governments including- for loans related to the housing needs20140.040.04- other guarantees of the general government sector20140.010.01Subtotal 0.10.1Total1.51.5In response to COVID-19Others 
       
 
 
 
  
 
4. DENMARK 

Table 4.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 

Source: Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2022 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations 

23 

2024202520262027COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)4.74.72.63.41.81.91.20.60.80.9Private consumption (% change)4.24.22.32.62.12.02.01.81.61.5Gross fixed capital formation (% change)5.65.62.72.42.35.30.90.30.50.3Exports of goods and services (% change)7.87.85.45.14.53.73.31.10.30.9Imports of goods and services (% change)8.28.25.03.14.64.03.52.41.21.4Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand4.14.12.01.91.72.11.21.31.21.1- Change in inventories0.30.30.10.1000000- Net exports0.30.30.51.40.20.10.0-0.7-0.5-0.2Output gap1-2.0-2.1-1.6-1.1-1.9-1.2-1.2-1.3-1.0-0.4Employment (% change)2.62.61.92.31.10.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.2Unemployment rate (%)5.15.24.84.34.74.34.14.34.64.8Labour productivity (% change)2.01.90.71.40.71.31.61.11.11.0HICP inflation (%)1.91.95.15.22.71.82.12.11.91.8GDP deflator (% change)2.42.43.31.82.31.22.22.31.91.9Comp. of employees (per head, % change)3.23.13.61.52.93.63.83.53.43.4Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)8.48.37.96.57.95.99.88.97.87.2202120222023 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

Denmark 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2022 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations 

24 

20212024202520262027Change: 2021-2027COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   3.0-2.2n.a.1.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#VALUE!of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.20n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#VALUE!Change in nationally financed investments0.10n.a.-0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#VALUE!Change in other capital expenditure0.30n.a.0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure2.7-2.2n.a.1.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)10.92.34.31.60.4-0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicators Expenditure benchmark1.12.44.41.60.8-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.#VALUE!Change in the structural balance1.3-1.6-1.00.3-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.7-1.5-2.720222023(% of GDP) 
     
 
 
Table 4.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Denmark 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2022 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations 

25 

20212024202520262027Change: 2021-2027COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPCPCPRevenue53.349.247.947.747.947.747.848.748.7-4.6of which:- Taxes on production and imports15.815.115.414.715.415.315.315.315.3-0.5- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.31.228.327.427.427.527.427.528.228.2-3.0- Social contributions0.80.700.700000-0.8- Other (residual)5.65.15.14.85.05.05.05.25.2-0.4RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.200.10.10.00.0n.a.n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00000000n.a.n.a.Expenditure51.048.347.347.147.747.147.448.148.7-2.3of which:- Primary expenditure50.547.746.746.647.246.747.047.648.2-2.3of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate 24.023.623.323.123.123.023.323.723.9-0.1Compensation of employees15.014.514.414.314.414.414.614.815.00.0Intermediate consumption9.19.1n.a.8.88.78.68.88.99.0-0.1Social payments16.816.016.015.416.016.216.416.616.80.0Subsidies2.51.41.51.31.51.51.51.51.5-1.0Gross fixed capital formation3.53.53.23.83.63.63.43.53.50.0Other (residual)3.63.32.43.12.92.22.22.32.3-1.3- Interest expenditure0.50.60.60.50.50.40.40.50.50Expenditure financed by RRF grants00000000n.a.n.a.General government balance (GGB)2.30.90.60.60.20.60.40.60.1-2.2Primary balance2.91.51.31.10.71.00.81.10.6-2.3GGB excl. one-offs2.30.91.91.11.71.41.10.60.1-2.2Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)2.20.3-4.50.93.34.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)-2.410.4n.a.0.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)2.9-0.1-8.50.80.94.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)-2.010.9n.a.0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)14.45.35.34.14.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-2.0-1.6-1.1-1.9-1.2-1.2-1.3-1.0-0.41.6Cyclically-adjusted balance23.51.91.31.70.91.31.21.20.4-3.2One-offs00-1.3-0.5-1.5-0.8-0.7000Structural balance33.51.92.62.22.42.11.91.20.4-3.2Structural primary balance34.12.43.22.72.92.52.31.70.9-3.320222023(% of GDP) 
   
 
 
Table 4.4:  General government debt developments 

Denmark 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2022 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations 

Table 4.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 convergence programme. 

26 

Average20242025202620272016-2020COMCPCOMCPCPCPCPCPGross debt ratio136.636.734.933.333.932.534.033.935.835.6Change in the ratio0.5-5.4-1.8-3.4-1.0-0.81.5-0.11.9-0.2Contributions2:1. Primary balance-2.1-2.9-1.5-1.3-1.1-0.7-1.0-0.8-1.1-0.62. “Snow-ball” effect-0.1-2.2-1.5-1.1-0.9-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.5Of which:Interest expenditure0.80.50.60.60.50.50.40.40.50.5Growth effect-0.6-1.8-0.9-1.2-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.2-0.3-0.3Inflation effect-0.4-0.9-1.1-0.6-0.8-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.6-0.73. Stock-flow adjustment2.7-0.21.2-1.01.00.43.21.33.40.920222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term-5.9LOW risk-4.7LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]-0.8LOW risk0.5LOW riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]9.723.1Commission scenarioConvergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.2 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
      
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 4.6:  RRF - Grants 

Denmark 

Source: National authorities. 

27 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.10.20.10.100Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.10.20.10.1002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.n.a.00000Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.n.a.00000Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.n.a.00000Interest expenditure D.41n.a.n.a.00000Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.n.a.00000Current transfers D.7n.a.n.a.00000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.0.100000Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.000000Capital transfers D.9n.a.000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.00.10000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
             
 
 
Table 4.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Denmark 

Source: National authorities. 

Table 4.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Source: National authorities. 

28 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.000000Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.000000Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.000000Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.000000Interest expenditure D.41n.a.000000Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.000000Current transfers D.7n.a.000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.000000Capital transfers D.9n.a.000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.000000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Guarantees for SMEsJune 20200.70.1Guarantees for large corporatesJune 20201.20Other national guarantees20201.41.1Guarantee for EIB20200.20.1Guarantee EU SURE20200.2n.a.EU Recovery Fund20202.6n.a.Subtotal     6.2n.a.Othersn.a.8.7n.a.Subtotal 0n.a.Total6.2n.a.In response to COVID-19Others 
             
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
5. GERMANY 

Table 5.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 5.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

29 

202420252026COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)2.92.91.63.62.42.30.80.80.8Private consumption (% change)0.10.14.16.03.72.60.80.80.8Gross fixed capital formation (% change)1.51.50.82.62.74.32.12.12.1Exports of goods and services (% change)9.99.92.45.54.24.03.13.13.1Imports of goods and services (% change)9.39.34.16.35.14.33.53.53.5Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand1.11.12.33.52.62.20.90.90.9- Change in inventories1.00.7-0.20.10.10000- Net exports0.80.9-0.60.0-0.20.1000Output gap1-2.0-2.6-1.4-0.4-0.10.60.30.0-0.2Employment (% change)0.00.00.80.90.50.4-0.3-0.3-0.3Unemployment rate (%)3.63.33.33.13.23.03.23.33.3Labour productivity (% change)2.82.80.82.71.91.91.11.11.1HICP inflation (%)3.2n.a.6.5n.a.3.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.GDP deflator (% change)3.03.05.42.93.61.71.81.81.8Comp. of employees (per head, % change)3.43.43.43.54.03.13.33.23.2Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)6.96.95.86.96.27.16.96.86.72021202220232021202420252026COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   0.1-1.6n.a.0.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.20n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.0-0.2n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.30.1n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.6-1.5n.a.0.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-1.51.51.31.82.30.91.0n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-1.41.71.71.72.30.90.8n.a.Change in the structural balance-0.20.8-1.30.81.30.41.00.420222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 5.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Germany 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

30 

2021202420252026Change: 2021-2026COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPSPRevenue47.846.345 ½45.94646 ¼4747 ¼-½of which:- Taxes on production and imports11.011.210 ¾11.2111111110- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.13.512.512 ¼12.212 ½12 ¾1313 ½0- Social contributions17.717.317 ¼17.217 ½17 ½1818 ¼½- Other (residual)5.65.35 ¼5.35554 ¾-1RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.20.20.20.10.10.10.10.0-0.2Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants000000000Expenditure51.548.849 ¼46.947 ¾4847 ¾47 ¾-3 ¾of which:- Primary expenditure50.948.348 ½46.447 ¼47 ½47 ¼47 ¼-3 ¾of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption14.714.214 ½13.613 ½13 ¼13 ¼13 ¼-1 ½Compensation of employees8.27.987.77 ¾7 ¾7 ¾7 ¾-½Intermediate consumption6.56.36 ½5.95 ¾5 ½5 ½5 ½-1Social payments26.225.325 ¼24.72525 ¼25 ½25 ½-¾Subsidies2.91.621.31 ½1 ¾1 ¾1 ¾-1 ¼Gross fixed capital formation2.52.732.8332 ¾2 ¾¼Other (residual)4.44.34 ¼4.04 ¼4 ¼44-½- Interest expenditure0.60.5½0.5½½½½0Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.20.20.20.10.10.10.10.0-0.2General government balance (GGB)-3.7-2.5-3 ¾-1.0-2-1 ¾-1-½3Primary balance-3.1-2.0-3 ¼-0.5-1 ½-1 ¼-¼03GGB excl. one-offs-3.6-2.5-3 ¾-1.0-2-1 ¾-1-½3Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)7.13.53.81.0-0.12.52.0n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)3.710.2n.a.3.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)6.73.12.60.3-0.82.52.1n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)2.910.4n.a.3.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)14.36.56.54.74.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-2.0-1.4-0.4-0.10.60.30-0.22.4Cyclically-adjusted balance2-2.7-1.8-3.5-1.0-2.2-1.9-0.9-0.51.9One-offs-0.100000000.1Structural balance3-2.6-1.8-3.5-1.0-2.2-1.9-0.9-0.51.7Structural primary balance3-2.0-1.2-2.9-0.4-1.7-1.3-0.401.720222023(% of GDP) 
   
 
 
Table 5.4:  General government debt developments 

Germany 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 5.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

31 

Average2024202520262016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPSPGross debt ratio164.569.366.466 ¾64.565 ¾65 ¾6564 ½Change in the ratio-0.70.6-3.0-2 ½-1.9-1    -¼-¾-½Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.23.12.03 ¼0.51 ½1 ¼¼0    2. “Snow-ball” effect-0.5-3.3-4.0-3.6-3.3-2.0-1.1-1.1-1.1Of which:Interest expenditure0.90.60.5½0.5½½½½Growth effect-0.4-1.9-1.0-2.4-1.5-1.5-0.5-0.5-0.5Inflation effect-1.1-2.0-3.5-1.9-2.3-1.1-1.1-1.1-1.13. Stock-flow adjustment1.10.8-0.9-2.00.9-0.3-0.30.10.520222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term-0.1LOW risk-0.3LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]2.6MEDIUM risk2.2MEDIUM riskCommission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW riskLOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]57.058.5Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6] 
   
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 5.6:  RRF - Grants 

Germany 

Source: National authorities. 

32 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projections00.20.20.10.10.10Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU00.10.10.20.20.10.12020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE00.10.10000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.900.10.10.10.10.10TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00.10.10.10.10.102020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
          
 
 
Table 5.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Germany 

Source: National authorities. 

33 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0000000Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
          
 
 
Table 5.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Germany 

Source: National authorities. 

34 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Federation: including guarantees under the Budget Act (Haushaltsgesetz), here: expansion of guarantee framework following entry into force of the first supplementary budget for 2020, pursuant to section 3 (1) sentence 1 no. ... retroactively from 1 January 202010.0n.a.1. Exports (export guarantees)0.2n.a.2. Loans to foreign debtors, foreign direct investment, EIB loans0.5n.a.3. Financial cooperation projects0.1n.a.5. Domestic guarantees8.4n.a.6. International financing institutions0.8n.a.Federation: Guarantees under other lawsGuarantees under the Act on the Assumption of Guarantees within the Framework of the European Instrument for Temporary Support to Mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) (SURE-Gewährleistungsgesetz)10 July 20200.20.2German contribution to the Pan-European Guarantee Fund20200.10Federation: Guarantees by special fundsGuarantees by the Economic Stabilisation Fund under section 21 of the Stabilisation Fund Act (Stabilisierungsfondsgesetz)(reduced to €100bn under the Act Amending the Stabilisation Fund Act (Gesetz zur Änderung des Stabilisierungsfondsgesetzes) and the Economic Stabilisation Acceleration Act (Wirtschaftsstabilisierungs-beschleunigungsgesetz) of 20 December 2021)28 March 2020 / 20 Decem- ber 20212.80Länder: Expansion of guarantee framework provided by the Ländertbd2.20Subtotal     15.2n.a.Federation: including total guarantees under the Budget Act pursuant to section 3 (1) sentence 1 no. …1 January 202023.015.31. Exports (export guarantees)4.33.62. Loans to foreign debtors, foreign direct investment, EIB loans2.11.03. Financial cooperation projects1.00.85. Domestic guarantees12.07.56. International financing institutions3.11.98. Interest compensation guarantees0.40.4Federation: Guarantees under other lawsGuarantees for loans to Greece under the Act on Financial Stability within the Monetary Union (Währungsunion-Finanzstabilitätsgesetz)7 May 20100.60.6Guarantees under the Act on the Assumption of Guarantees within the Framework of a European Stabilisation Mechanism (Gesetz zur Übernahme von Gewährleistungen im Rahmen eines europäischen Stabilisierungsmechanismus)23 May 2010,amendment: 1 June 20125.92.5Federation: including guarantees by special fundsGuarantees by the ERP Special FundERP Business Plan Act (ERP-Wirtschaftsplangesetz) 20210.10.1Guarantees by the Financial Stabilisation Fund under sections 6 and 8a of the Stabilisation Fund Act18 Oct. 2008, amendment: 29 Dec. 202011.20Subtotal 40.918.5Total56.1n.a.In response to COVID-19Others 
  
 
6. ESTONIA 

Table 6.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 6.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

35 

202420252026COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)8.38.31.0-1.02.41.23.22.62.6Private consumption (% change)6.46.52.5-4.61.50.13.22.32.0Gross fixed capital formation (% change)3.33.3-7.0-7.25.03.91.02.42.5Exports of goods and services (% change)19.819.83.0-2.04.92.34.73.23.0Imports of goods and services (% change)20.620.6-0.6-6.64.32.13.42.82.3Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand5.04.9-0.4-4.42.11.21.81.81.7- Change in inventories2.82.6-1.6-0.2-0.3-0.20.00.30.1- Net exports-0.5-0.42.93.50.60.21.30.50.7Output gap10.00.7-1.5-1.9-1.5-2.4-1.0-0.30.5Employment (% change)0.1-0.50.7-0.11.0-1.21.10.40.0Unemployment rate (%)6.26.26.87.26.98.37.26.76.4Labour productivity (% change)8.28.90.3-0.91.42.42.12.22.6HICP inflation (%)4.54.511.212.42.52.01.21.72.0GDP deflator (% change)5.55.58.17.83.22.51.72.12.4Comp. of employees (per head, % change)7.67.97.06.14.55.64.64.85.0Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)1.18.13.03.44.04.14.34.14.92021202220232021202420252026Change: 2021-2026COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   1.7-2.4n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#VALUE!of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.1-0.1n.a.-0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#VALUE!Change in nationally financed investments-0.1-0.6n.a.-0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.#VALUE!Change in other capital expenditure0.4-0.4n.a.0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure1.6-1.4n.a.0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.EEFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)11.3-0.5-0.51.01.21.41.9n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark1.60.01.31.50.81.01.1n.a.#VALUE!Change in the structural balance0.1-0.5-0.90.9-0.70.30.5n.a.#VALUE!20222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 6.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Estonia 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

36 

2021202420252026Change: 2021-2026COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPSPRevenue40.039.339.939.140.239.839.238.3-1.7of which:- Taxes on production and imports13.713.914.013.713.713.613.312.8-0.9- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.67.88.07.37.67.67.77.7-0.9- Social contributions12.211.912.311.912.312.412.512.40.2- Other (residual)5.55.65.66.16.66.25.75.4-0.1RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.40.60.70.70.70.40.30.3Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure42.343.645.242.745.043.642.140.4-1.9of which:- Primary expenditure42.343.645.242.644.843.341.840.1-2.2of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption17.517.518.317.018.317.116.515.6-1.9Compensation of employees11.211.011.310.811.210.710.610.1-1.1Intermediate consumption6.36.6n.a.6.37.16.45.85.5-0.8Social payments15.315.715.415.615.615.615.815.90.6Subsidies1.00.80.80.50.50.50.50.5-0.5Gross fixed capital formation5.76.37.56.87.67.46.86.10.4Other (residual)2.93.33.12.62.92.72.22.0-0.9- Interest expenditure0000.20.20.30.30.30.3Expenditure financed by RRF grants00.40.40.70.70.70.40.30.3General government balance (GGB)-2.4-4.4-5.3-3.7-4.8-3.8-2.9-2.20.2Primary balance-2.3-4.3-5.2-3.5-4.6-3.6-2.9-1.90.4GGB excl. one-offs-3.4-4.5-5.5-3.7-4.8-3.8-2.9-2.21.2Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)5.212.612.22.83.23.81.0n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)3.718.3n.a.4.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)5.59.77.22.74.94.42.1n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)3.716.1n.a.5.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. mominal 10-year average potential growth (%)18.811.511.56.46.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap20.0-1.5-1.9-1.5-2.4-1.0-0.30.5-0.2Cyclically-adjusted balance2-2.3-3.7-4.4-3.0-3.6-3.3-2.8-2.40.3One-offs1.00.20.200000-1.0Structural balance3-3.3-3.8-4.6-3.0-3.6-3.3-2.8-2.41.3Structural primary balance3-3.3-3.8-4.6-2.8-3.4-3.0-2.5-2.11.520222023(% of GDP) 
  
 
 
Table 6.4:  General government debt developments 

Estonia 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 6.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability  programmes. 

37 

Average2024202520262016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPSPGross debt ratio111.018.120.920.723.524.127.729.229.7Change in the ratio1.8-0.92.92.62.63.43.61.50.5Contributions2:1. Primary balance1.42.34.35.23.54.63.62.91.92. “Snow-ball” effect-0.4-2.3-1.5-1.0-0.9-0.5-0.9-1.3-1.1Of which:Interest expenditure00000.20.20.30.30.3Growth effect-0.2-1.4-0.20.2-0.5-0.2-0.7-0.7-0.7Inflation effect-0.2-0.9-1.3-1.3-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.6-0.73. Stock-flow adjustment0.9-0.90.0-1.50.0-0.70.9-0.1-0.320222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term-1.5LOW risk-1.4LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]1.6LOW risk1.3LOW riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]36.135.8Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.2 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 6.6:  RRF - Grants 

Estonia 

Source: National authorities. 

38 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.00.60.70.70.40.3Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE0000000Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 6.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Estonia 

Source: National authorities. 

39 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0000000Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREOther costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 6.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Estonia 

Source: National authorities. 

40 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)In response to COVID-19Guarantees to foundation KredEx and limited company KredEx Credit Insurance Ltd, Rural Development Foundation (MES)20201.30.5Subtotal     1.30.5Guarantee in respect of bonds obligations of the EFSF20111.70Callable capital of EIB, NIB, CEB, EBRD, IBRD, 3 SIIF20201.40Guarantee to foundation KredEx and limited company KredEx Credit Insurance Ltd20091.30Student loans20030.10Loan guarantees (2 state owned foundations)20160.10Subtotal     4.60Total5.90.5 
  
 
 
 
7. IRELAND 

Table 7.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).  

Table 7.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

41 

20242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)13.513.55.46.44.44.44.03.8Private consumption (% change)5.75.75.76.04.13.63.53.4Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-37.6-37.64.2-10.95.48.17.15.6Exports of goods and services (% change)16.616.66.07.54.95.14.64.4Imports of goods and services (% change)-3.7-3.76.22.95.05.75.34.8Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-12.8-12.82.6-1.12.42.72.62.3- Change in inventories-0.4-0.4000000- Net exports25.825.82.27.51.81.61.41.5Output gap12.5n.a.2.8n.a.2.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Employment (% change)3.911.02.814.90.82.11.71.7Unemployment rate (%)6.215.94.66.25.05.45.24.9Labour productivity (% change)9.22.32.6-7.43.62.42.32.1HICP inflation (%)2.42.56.16.23.13.02.22.1GDP deflator (% change)-0.4-0.44.84.14.12.21.91.7Comp. of employees (per head, % change)3.6-3.03.8-4.67.85.24.84.6Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)14.113.912.618.112.917.316.515.9202120222023202120242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   0.6-0.3n.a.1.8n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.10n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.2-0.3n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.00.0n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.40.0n.a.1.8n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)11.01.91.82.43.02.70.9Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark0.92.52.32.43.02.90.8Change in the structural balance-0.61.2n.a.1.1n.a.n.a.n.a.20222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 7.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Ireland 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

42 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue23.022.422.621.622.322.021.6-1.4of which:- Taxes on production and imports6.86.76.66.76.66.56.4-0.4- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.810.510.79.910.510.510.5-0.3- Social contributions3.83.73.73.73.73.63.5-0.3- Other (residual)1.51.51.61.41.51.41.2-0.3RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.100000Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure24.923.023.021.222.020.720.3-4.6of which:- Primary expenditure24.122.222.320.521.320.119.8-4.3of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption10.09.49.48.99.18.98.6-1.4Compensation of employees6.25.95.85.65.75.65.5-0.7Intermediate consumption3.93.53.53.33.43.33.1-0.8Social payments8.98.27.87.27.47.06.9-2.0Subsidies1.60.60.50.40.30.30.3-1.3Gross fixed capital formation2.02.32.32.32.42.42.50.5Other (residual)1.61.82.41.62.21.51.4-0.2- Interest expenditure0.80.80.70.70.70.60.5-0.3Expenditure financed by RRF grants00.1000000General government balance (GGB)-1.9-0.5-0.40.40.21.21.43.3Primary balance-1.10.30.31.11.01.91.93.0GGB excl. one-offs-1.9-0.5-2.00.4-0.41.21.43.3Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)3.02.83.1-0.8-1.9-2.73.7n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.613.2n.a.1.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)3.50.5n.a.-2.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)5.411.75.10.81.6-2.03.0n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)17.811.711.710.910.9n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap22.52.8n.a.2.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Cyclically-adjusted balance2-3.2-2.0n.a.-0.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.One-offs001.600.6000Structural balance3-3.2-2.0n.a.-0.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Structural primary balance3-2.4-1.2n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.20222023(% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 7.4:  General government debt developments 

Ireland 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 7.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

43 

Average202420252016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio164.256.050.350.145.546.343.840.7Change in the ratio-3.7-2.5-5.6-5.9-4.8-3.8-2.5-3.1Contributions2:1. Primary balance-0.51.1-0.3-0.3-1.1-1.0-1.9-1.92. “Snow-ball” effect-2.9-6.0-4.4-4.6-3.3-2.4-1.9-1.8Of which:Interest expenditure1.70.80.80.70.70.70.60.5Growth effect-3.8-7.0-2.7-3.2-2.1-2.1-1.7-1.6Inflation effect-0.70.2-2.4-2.1-1.9-1.0-0.8-0.73. Stock-flow adjustment-0.22.3-0.9-0.8-0.4-0.41.30.620222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term-1.5LOW risk-1.4LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]5.3MEDIUM risk4.7MEDIUM riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]36.735.7Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
   
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 7.6:  RRF - Grants 

Ireland 

Source: National authorities. 

44 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.00.10000Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.000.10002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.000000Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.000000Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.000000Interest expenditure D.41n.a.000000Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.000000Current transfers D.7n.a.000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.000000Capital transfers D.9n.a.000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 7.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Ireland 

Source: National authorities. 

Table 7.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Source: National authorities. 

45 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.000000Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.000000Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.000000Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.000000Interest expenditure D.41n.a.000000Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.000000Current transfers D.7n.a.000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.000000Capital transfers D.9n.a.000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.000000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Subtotal     n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subtotal n.a.n.a.Totaln.a.n.a.In response to COVID-19Others 
       
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
8. GREECE 

Table 8.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 8.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

46 

20242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)8.38.33.53.13.14.83.53.3Private consumption (% change)7.87.81.52.41.72.92.32.0Gross fixed capital formation (% change)19.619.614.79.88.521.59.28.6Exports of goods and services (% change)21.921.911.65.69.56.25.64.9Imports of goods and services (% change)16.116.17.92.95.35.34.03.7Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand8.68.62.62.51.64.83.12.9- Change in inventories-0.9-1.10.0-0.30.0-0.10.00.0- Net exports0.70.90.90.91.50.10.50.4Output gap1-5.3-0.5-2.4-4.0-0.3-1.3-0.6-0.7Employment (% change)0.50.51.22.01.21.81.01.0Unemployment rate (%)14.7-9.813.7-5.413.1-12.2-8.2-8.9Labour productivity (% change)7.87.82.21.11.93.02.42.2HICP inflation (%)0.60.66.35.61.91.61.71.7GDP deflator (% change)2.12.14.84.52.11.61.71.8Comp. of employees (per head, % change)1.41.43.51.82.21.42.32.5Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-6.2-4.8-6.3-3.3-4.1-2.9-2.0-1.5202120222023202120242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -2.1-3.3n.a.1.5n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.1-0.2n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.7-0.8n.a.-0.6n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.0-0.1n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.3-2.2n.a.1.7n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-2.21.82.73.23.10.40.2Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-1.23.54.22.12.80.70.2Change in the structural balance-1.42.56.12.11.20.60.420222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 8.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Greece 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

47 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue49.449.248.546.646.645.744.4-5.0of which:- Taxes on production and imports16.618.717.116.916.315.915.6-1- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.9.28.69.28.59.19.29.20- Social contributions14.913.813.613.312.812.412.0-2.9- Other (residual)8.78.18.68.08.48.27.6-1.1RRF grants as included in the revenue projections1.81.61.71.71.61.51.3Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00000000Expenditure56.953.553.047.647.946.144.5-12.4of which:- Primary expenditure54.451.150.645.445.443.642.1-12.3of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption17.916.917.515.715.814.914.2-3.7Compensation of employees12.311.511.510.910.710.29.8-2.5Intermediate consumption5.65.46.04.85.14.74.4-1.2Social payments22.421.021.220.120.419.418.7-3.7Subsidies4.63.52.01.81.31.31.2-3.4Gross fixed capital formation3.64.85.54.84.95.15.01.4Other (residual)5.94.94.43.03.12.93.0-2.9- Interest expenditure2.52.42.42.32.52.52.4-0.1Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.21.61.61.71.71.71.61.4General government balance (GGB)-7.4-4.3-4.4-1.0-1.4-0.4-0.17.3Primary balance-5.0-1.9-2.01.31.12.12.37.3GGB excl. one-offs-8.3-4.2-4.0-1.0-1.4-0.4-0.18.2Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)6.4-0.1-3.5-4.2-5.01.02.2n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)6.811.6n.a.-0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)6.11.71.0-5.9-4.30.91.1n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.810.2n.a.-2.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)11.54.54.52.12.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-5.3-2.4-4.0-0.3-1.3-0.6-0.7-0.2Cyclically-adjusted balance2-4.6-3.0-2.3-0.9-0.7-0.10.37.4One-offs0.8-0.1-0.40000-0.8Structural balance3-5.5-3.0-1.9-0.9-0.7-0.10.38.3Structural primary balance3-3.0-0.60.51.41.82.42.78.220222023(% of GDP) 
     
 
 
Table 8.4:  General government debt developments 

Greece 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 8.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

48 

Average202420252016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio1186.7193.3185.7180.2180.4168.6155.2146.5Change in the ratio5.9-13.1-7.6-13.1-5.2-11.6-13.4-8.7Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.75.01.92.0-1.3-1.1-2.1-2.32. “Snow-ball” effect5.7-17.0-12.3-11.3-6.8-8.4-5.9-5.0Of which:Interest expenditure3.12.52.42.42.32.52.52.4Growth effect2.1-15.6-6.2-5.6-5.4-8.1-5.6-4.9Inflation effect0.4-3.9-8.5-8.2-3.7-2.7-2.8-2.63. Stock-flow adjustment1.9-0.73.0-3.53.0-2.0-5.3-1.320222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term4.4HIGH risk2.0MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]-3.2LOW risk-3.6LOW riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]HIGH riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]130.5112.3Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioHIGH riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.5 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]HIGH risk 
      
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 8.6:  RRF - Grants 

Greece 

Source: National authorities. 

49 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projections00.21.61.71.61.51.5Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU01.31.71.61.61.50.72020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000.1000Social payments D.62+D.63200.10.10.20.10.10Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.3000.10.20.10.10Current transfers D.70n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE00.10.20.40.30.30Gross fixed capital formation P.51g00.10.90.910.81.1Capital transfers D.9000.50.40.40.50.5TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00.11.41.31.31.31.52020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 8.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Greece 

Source: National authorities. 

Table 8.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Source: National authorities. 

50 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU00.90.90.90.80.81.5Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions001.30.90.80.81.1Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Sure programme20200.20.2Paneuropean Guarantees' Fund20200.20.2 Covid-19 Fund (HDB-ex. ETEAN)20200.90.9Subtotal     1.31.3State Guarantees to non General Government Entities20202.72.7Enterpreneurship loans (EIB loans to greek banks)20200.80.8Hercules NPL reduction scheme20209.49.4HDB/ex.ETEAN & Enterpreneurship Fund (excl. COVID 19 Fund)20200.00.0Subtotal 13.013.0Total14.214.2In response to COVID-19Others 
      
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
9. SPAIN 

Table 9.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 9.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

51 

20242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)5.15.14.04.33.43.52.41.8Private consumption (% change)4.64.60.84.13.82.71.21.3Gross fixed capital formation (% change)4.34.38.39.35.87.53.32.9Exports of goods and services (% change)14.714.713.67.84.66.26.34.4Imports of goods and services (% change)13.913.98.39.14.86.54.73.4Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand4.14.12.04.63.43.61.81.4- Change in inventories0.50.5000000- Net exports0.50.52.0-0.30.0-0.10.60.4Output gap1-4.9-4.8-2.2-2.3-0.2-0.50.40.7Employment (% change)2.42.42.82.61.12.11.91.5Unemployment rate (%)14.814.813.412.813.011.710.69.6Labour productivity (% change)-1.42.70.71.71.71.30.60.3HICP inflation (%)3.0n.a.6.3n.a.1.8n.a.n.a.n.a.GDP deflator (% change)2.22.23.74.02.42.41.91.8Comp. of employees (per head, % change)-0.6-0.62.83.23.02.91.61.7Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)1.91.92.91.03.21.31.71.8202120222023202120242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -3.0-2.2n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.8-0.9n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.2-0.4n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.40.3n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-2.0-1.2n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-2.10.11.40.40.61.50.2Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-1.30.81.40.5-0.300.1Change in the structural balance0.40.30.4-0.7-0.10.10.220222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
       
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
Table 9.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Spain 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

52 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue43.743.642.042.641.841.441.3-2.4of which:- Taxes on production and imports12.112.112.012.012.011.811.6-0.5- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.11.911.711.811.411.812.012.10.2- Social contributions14.313.813.713.513.713.813.9-0.4- Other (residual)5.45.94.55.84.33.83.7-1.7RRF grants as included in the revenue projections2.12.01.71.40.10-1.8Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure50.648.447.047.045.644.844.3-6.3of which:- Primary expenditure48.446.444.845.043.442.742.2-6.2of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption18.117.417.017.016.616.416.1-2.0Compensation of employees12.211.811.511.511.311.110.9-1.3Intermediate consumption5.95.75.55.45.45.35.2-0.7Social payments21.920.820.620.320.520.420.3-1.6Subsidies1.61.11.40.91.11.11.0-0.6Gross fixed capital formation2.72.72.42.62.32.22.1-0.6Other (residual)4.24.43.34.22.92.62.6-1.6- Interest expenditure2.22.12.22.02.22.12.1-0.1Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.21.81.91.71.40.10.0-1.8General government balance (GGB)-6.9-4.9-5.0-4.4-3.9-3.3-2.94.0Primary balance-4.7-2.8-2.8-2.4-1.7-1.3-0.93.8GGB excl. one-offs-6.8-4.9-4.9-4.4-3.9-3.3-2.93.9Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)5.92.11.12.43.02.43.2n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)8.37.7n.a.3.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)3.83.02.42.44.13.32.9n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)8.27.7n.a.2.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)12.94.54.53.33.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-4.9-2.2-2.3-0.2-0.50.40.75.5Cyclically-adjusted balance2-3.9-3.5-3.6-4.3-3.6-3.5-3.30.7One-offs-0.10.0-0.10.00.00.00.00.1Structural balance3-3.8-3.5-3.5-4.3-3.6-3.5-3.30.6Structural primary balance3-1.7-1.5-1.3-2.3-1.4-1.4-1.20.620222023(% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 9.4:  General government debt developments 

Spain 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 9.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

53 

Average202420252016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio1103.3118.4115.1115.2113.7112.4110.9109.7Change in the ratio4.1-1.5-3.3-3.2-1.4-2.8-1.5-1.2Contributions2:1. Primary balance2.24.72.82.82.41.71.30.92. “Snow-ball” effect1.8-6.0-6.4-6.9-4.2-4.1-2.6-1.9Of which:Interest expenditure2.42.22.12.22.02.22.12.1Growth effect0.4-5.7-4.4-4.7-3.7-3.8-2.6-1.9Inflation effect-1.0-2.4-4.0-4.4-2.6-2.5-2.0-2.03. Stock-flow adjustment0.1-0.10.51.00.5-0.3-0.2-0.120222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term5.2HIGH risk4.1HIGH riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]1.9LOW risk0.9LOW riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]MEDIUM riskHIGH risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]116.1108.1Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]HIGH risk 
     
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 9.6:  RRF - Grants 

Spain 

Source: National authorities. 

54 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.1.821.40.10n.a.Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.1.61.41.20.60.2n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.00000n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.00000n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.0.20.20.200n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.0.30.20.200n.a.Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.0.10.10.100n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.1.41.61.10.10n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.1.51.71.20.10n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
        
 
 
Table 9.7: 

Spain 

Source: National authorities. 

55 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0000000Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities (% of GDP)Estimated take-over (% of GDP)Line ICO Leases COVID-19 01-05-20200.10Line of guarantees COVID-19 17-03-20207.67.2Line of guarantees COVID-19 03-07-20203.10.8Creation of an extraordinary insurance cover line under the Internationalisation Risk Reserve Fund 17-03-20200.2n.a.CERSA COVID-19 guarantee line31-03-20200.10.1Guarantee European instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE instrument)26-05-20200.2n.a.Guarantees for financing operations carried out by the European Investment Bank through the Pan-European Guarantee Fund in response to the COVID-19 crisis03-06-20200.2n.a.Solvency support fund for strategic companies through the provision of equity loans, subordinated debt, subscription to shares or other equity instruments.03-07-20200.8n.a.Subtotal     12.2n.a.Line of guarantees Ukraine20-04-20220.8n.a.Subtotal 0.8n.a.Total13.0n.a.In response to COVID-19Others 
 
  
 
10. FRANCE 

Table 10.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 10.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

56 

20242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)7.0n.a.3.1n.a.1.8n.a.n.a.n.a.Private consumption (% change)4.7n.a.3.4n.a.2.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Gross fixed capital formation (% change)11.6n.a.2.0n.a.2.9n.a.n.a.n.a.Exports of goods and services (% change)9.3n.a.8.3n.a.7.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Imports of goods and services (% change)8.0n.a.6.7n.a.6.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand6.7n.a.2.7n.a.1.9n.a.n.a.n.a.- Change in inventories0.0n.a.0.1n.a.-0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.- Net exports0.2n.a.0.3n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Output gap1-1.7n.a.0n.a.0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Employment (% change)1.8n.a.1.1n.a.0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Unemployment rate (%)7.9n.a.7.6n.a.7.6n.a.n.a.n.a.Labour productivity (% change)5.1n.a.2.0n.a.1.4n.a.n.a.n.a.HICP inflation (%)2.1n.a.4.9n.a.3.1n.a.n.a.n.a.GDP deflator (% change)0.8n.a.2.2n.a.3.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Comp. of employees (per head, % change)4.9n.a.3.8n.a.3.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-1.7n.a.-2.4n.a.-1.6n.a.n.a.n.a.202120222023202120242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -2.3-1.7n.a.0.9n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.50.2n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments00n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.0-0.2n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.8-1.6n.a.0.7n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-1.80.5n.a.1.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-1.20.4n.a.1.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in the structural balance-0.90.8n.a.1.2n.a.n.a.n.a.20222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 10.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

France 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

57 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue52.852.4n.a.52.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.of which:- Taxes on production and imports16.716.5n.a.16.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.13.013.1n.a.13.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.- Social contributions16.816.7n.a.16.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.- Other (residual)6.36.1n.a.5.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.9n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure59.257.0n.a.55.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.of which:- Primary expenditure57.855.6n.a.54.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption  n.a. n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Compensation of employees12.512.3n.a.12.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption5.25.0n.a.4.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments27.025.9n.a.25.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies3.42.6n.a.2.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Gross fixed capital formation3.63.6n.a.3.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other (residual)6.26.2n.a.5.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.- Interest expenditure1.41.4n.a.1.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.50.4n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.General government balance (GGB)-6.5-4.6n.a.-3.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Primary balance-5.1-3.2n.a.-1.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.GGB excl. one-offs-6.4-4.5n.a.-3.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)4.22.5n.a.2.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)5.46.7n.a.2.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)4.12.1n.a.2.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)5.76.6n.a.2.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)11.93.33.34.04.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-1.70.0n.a.0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Cyclically-adjusted balance2-5.4-4.6n.a.-3.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.One-offs-0.1-0.1n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Structural balance3-5.3-4.5n.a.-3.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Structural primary balance3-3.9-3.1n.a.-1.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.20222023(% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 10.4:  General government debt developments 

France 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 10.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services. 

58 

Average202420252016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio1101.2112.9111.2n.a.109.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in the ratio3.8-1.7-1.7n.a.-2.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Contributions2:1. Primary balance2.65.13.2n.a.1.7n.a.n.a.n.a.2. “Snow-ball” effect0.6-6.9-4.3n.a.-3.6n.a.n.a.n.a.Of which:Interest expenditure1.61.41.4n.a.1.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Growth effect0.3-7.4-3.3n.a.-1.9n.a.n.a.n.a.Inflation effect-1.2-0.9-2.4n.a.-3.2n.a.n.a.n.a.3. Stock-flow adjustment0.60.2-0.5n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.20222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term4.6HIGH risk4.6n.a.Baseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]0.7LOW riskn.a.n.a.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]MEDIUM riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]109.0n.a.Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.4 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]HIGH risk 
   
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 10.6:  RRF - Grants 

France 

Source: National authorities. 

59 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 10.7:  RRF - LOANS 

France 

Source: National authorities. 

Table 10.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Source: National authorities. 

60 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Subtotal     n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subtotal n.a.n.a.Totaln.a.n.a.In response to COVID-19Others 
       
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
11. CROATIA 

Table 11.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

Table 11.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

61 

20242025COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)10.210.23.43.03.04.42.72.5Private consumption (% change)10.010.02.41.43.63.22.42.3Gross fixed capital formation (% change)7.67.66.55.88.26.13.93.6Exports of goods and services (% change)33.333.38.46.95.56.04.23.8Imports of goods and services (% change)14.714.78.16.18.06.94.23.6Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand8.38.33.42.84.53.62.72.6- Change in inventories-4.9-4.90-0.20.01.50.20- Net exports6.86.80.10.3-1.5-0.7-0.10Output gap10.30.20.8-0.11.11.10.70.3Employment (% change)1.21.21.62.81.81.51.10.9Unemployment rate (%)7.67.66.36.36.05.65.25.0Labour productivity (% change)8.98.91.80.21.12.91.71.6HICP inflation (%)2.72.66.17.82.83.72.52.2GDP deflator (% change)3.23.23.86.22.44.12.72.4Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.65.03.07.62.75.04.13.8Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)5.706.20.04.8000202120222023202120242025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -0.2-1.8n.a.-0.7n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.3-0.5n.a.-0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.7-0.4n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.40.1n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.0-1.0n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)10.9-0.2-1.8-0.3-0.50.0n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark0.60.5-0.70.20.1-0.7n.a.Change in the structural balance1.40.40.50.40.50.10.620222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 11.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Croatia 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic potential growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

62 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPRevenue46.446.446.946.746.545.845.5-0.9of which:- Taxes on production and imports19.319.319.319.519.119.018.9-0.4- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.5.45.35.35.35.35.35.3-0.1- Social contributions11.311.111.410.911.211.211.2-0.1- Other (residual)10.310.610.911.010.910.310.1-0.2RRF grants as included in the revenue projections1.00.91.51.31.82.22.2Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00000000Expenditure49.248.649.848.548.147.446.7-2.5of which:- Primary expenditure47.747.248.447.246.946.345.7-2.0of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption20.820.820.820.820.219.919.7-1.1Compensation of employees12.512.412.112.511.811.611.5-1.0Intermediate consumption8.38.58.78.48.48.38.30.0Social payments15.515.215.115.014.714.714.7-0.8Subsidies2.71.82.01.71.81.81.7-1.0Gross fixed capital formation4.85.35.75.76.36.26.01.2Other (residual)3.94.04.94.13.83.73.6-0.3- Interest expenditure1.61.41.41.31.21.11.0-0.6Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.01.00.81.51.31.92.12.1General government balance (GGB)-2.9-2.3-2.8-1.8-1.6-1.6-1.21.7Primary balance-1.3-0.9-1.4-0.5-0.3-0.5-0.21.1GGB excl. one-offs-2.9-2.3-2.5-1.8-1.4-1.6-1.21.7Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)2.65.38.24.24.45.4n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)5.19.3n.a.5.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)5.14.48.34.23.35.1n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)8.28.9n.a.5.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)15.46.06.04.64.6n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap20.30.8-0.11.11.10.70.30.1Cyclically-adjusted balance2-3.0-2.6-2.7-2.2-2.1-1.9-1.31.7One-offs00-0.30-0.1000Structural balance3-3.1-2.7-2.5-2.3-2.0-1.9-1.31.7Structural primary balance3-1.5-1.3-1.1-1.0-0.8-0.8-0.31.120222023(% of GDP) 
     
 
 
Table 11.4:  General government debt developments 

Croatia 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

Table 11.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 convergence programme. 

63 

Average202420252016-2020COMCPCOMCPCPCPGross debt ratio177.779.875.376.273.171.768.966.9Change in the ratio0.8-7.5-4.5-3.6-2.2-4.6-2.7-2.0Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.01.30.91.40.50.30.50.22. “Snow-ball” effect1.0-8.8-3.9-5.3-2.6-4.8-2.6-2.2Of which:Interest expenditure2.41.61.41.41.31.21.11.0Growth effect-0.7-7.9-2.5-2.2-2.1-3.1-1.9-1.7Inflation effect-0.7-2.5-2.8-4.6-1.7-2.9-1.8-1.63. Stock-flow adjustment0.80.2-1.30.5-0.10.0-0.6020222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term1.1MEDIUM risk0.0MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]1.0LOW risk1.2LOW riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]MEDIUM riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]69.362.6Commission scenarioConvergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.4 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 11.6:  RRF - Grants 

Croatia 

Source: National authorities. 

64 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.00.91.31.82.21.1Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.1.42.20.81.21.10.82020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.00.30.40.50.50Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.00.30.511.20.7Capital transfers D.9n.a.00.20.40.40.40.4TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.00.60.91.31.71.12020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.000000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000.20.10.10Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 11.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Croatia 

Source: National authorities. 

65 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0000000Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 11.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Croatia 

Source: National authorities. 

66 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)COVID-19 Programmes for the Portfolio Insurance of Liquidity Loans for Exporters and for the Individual Insurance Policy of Liquidity Loans for Exportersavr-201.00.5State aid Scheme to support the maritime, transport, transport infrastructure and related sectors and related sectors impacted by the COVID-19 outbreakjuil-200.20.1State aid Scheme to support tourism and sport sectors impacted by the COVID-19 outbreakfévr-210.40.1Guarantees for loans in sectors culture and creative industries impacted by the COVID-19 outbreakjuil-200.10Subtotal     1.60.600Subtotal 00Total1.60.6In response to COVID-19Others 
  
 
 
 
 
12. ITALY 

Table 12.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 12.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

67 

20242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)6.66.62.43.11.92.41.81.5Private consumption (% change)5.25.22.23.01.42.11.61.6Gross fixed capital formation (% change)17.017.06.27.34.15.54.02.2Exports of goods and services (% change)13.313.34.94.44.33.43.12.9Imports of goods and services (% change)14.214.26.15.44.24.03.32.9Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand6.26.32.73.51.82.51.91.5- Change in inventories0.20.30.0-0.200.100- Net exports0.20-0.2-0.20.0-0.100.1Output gap1-2.4-2.5-0.5-0.50.30.50.70.8Employment (% change)0.60.60.61.31.11.71.31.1Unemployment rate (%)9.59.59.58.68.98.18.07.9Labour productivity (% change)-0.86.00.11.800.70.50.5HICP inflation (%)1.91.95.95.82.32.11.81.8GDP deflator (% change)0.50.53.13.02.42.21.91.8Comp. of employees (per head, % change)-0.90.32.52.71.31.71.41.8Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)2.42.41.11.61.51.51.51.6202120222023202120242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -2.6-2.8n.a.-1.2n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.1-0.9n.a.-0.7n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.4-0.3n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.3-0.3n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.7-1.3n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-1.9-0.5-0.4-0.10.31.31.6Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-1.60.70.60.71.10.31.320222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 12.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment* 

Italy 

(*) In the table, the figures related to the Stability Programme correspond to the budgetary projections transmitted by Italy. Except 
for the overall figures on government deficit and debt, those projections do not take into account the fiscal package announced 
by Italy for May 2022. This package, adopted on 2 May 2022, included additional support measures in 2022 as well as more 
resources for nationally financed investment projects in both 2022 and in the coming years. The estimates reported for the 
Stability Programme in Table 12.2 (Indicators for the fiscal surveillance) are based on those detailed budgetary projections, and 
therefore do not take into account the additional fiscal package. 
(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

68 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue48.348.548.548.748.847.346.9-1.4of which:- Taxes on production and imports14.514.514.514.614.714.614.50- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.15.014.414.413.914.013.713.7-1.3- Social contributions13.814.014.014.014.013.913.80- Other (residual)4.95.75.66.16.15.14.90RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.80.71.21.10.80.50.4Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00.10.10.20.20.30.10.1Expenditure55.554.053.653.052.550.549.6-5.9of which:- Primary expenditure52.050.550.149.849.447.546.6-5.4of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption16.216.316.215.615.414.714.3-1.9Compensation of employees9.910.110.09.69.59.18.8-1.1Intermediate consumption6.26.26.16.05.95.65.4-0.8Social payments25.123.923.824.224.123.823.5-1.6Subsidies2.02.22.41.92.11.91.9-0.1Gross fixed capital formation2.93.23.13.73.63.53.60.7Other (residual)5.84.84.64.44.23.53.5-2.3- Interest expenditure3.53.53.53.23.13.03.0-0.5Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.60.60.91.00.60.40.3General government balance (GGB)-7.2-5.5-5.6-4.3-3.9-3.3-2.84.4Primary balance-3.7-2.0-2.1-1.1-0.8-0.30.23.9GGB excl. one-offs-7.6-6.0-6.3-4.6-4.2-3.4-2.94.7Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)4.42.22.41.30.82.2-0.2n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)6.17.1n.a.3.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)2.63.94.71.81.42.3-1.0n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.86.6n.a.3.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)10.73.53.52.92.9n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-2.4-0.5-0.50.30.50.70.83.4Cyclically-adjusted balance2-5.9-5.3-5.3-4.5-4.2-3.7-3.22.6One-offs0.40.50.70.30.30.10.1-0.3Structural balance3-6.3-5.8-6.0-4.8-4.5-3.8-3.32.9Structural primary balance3-2.8-2.3-2.5-1.6-1.4-0.8-0.32.420222023(% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 12.4:  General government debt developments 

Italy 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 12.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

69 

Average202420252016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio1138.6150.8147.9147.0146.8145.2143.4141.4Change in the ratio4.0-4.4-3.0-3.8-1.1-1.8-1.8-2.0Contributions2:1. Primary balance0.03.72.02.11.10.80.3-0.22. “Snow-ball” effect3.7-6.8-4.4-5.4-2.8-3.4-2.2-1.6Of which:Interest expenditure3.63.53.53.53.23.13.03.0Growth effect1.5-9.6-3.5-4.4-2.6-3.4-2.5-2.1Inflation effect-1.4-0.7-4.4-4.4-3.4-3.0-2.6-2.53. Stock-flow adjustment0.3-1.3-0.5-0.50.70.70.1-0.220222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term9.6HIGH risk8.1HIGH riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]1.6LOW risk0.5LOW riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]HIGH riskHIGH risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]155.2143.5Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]HIGH risk 
   
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 12.6:  RRF - Grants 

Italy 

Source: National authorities. 

70 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.10.71.10.80.5n.a.Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.51.10.60.40.4n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.00.10.20.20.1n.a.Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.00.20.30.30.3n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.0.10.30.50.10n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0.10.50.70.30.3n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.00.10.20.30.1n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.00000n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.00000n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 12.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Italy 

Source: National authorities. 

Table 12.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Source: National authorities. 

71 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.0.91.21.211n.a.Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.00000n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.00.10.10.10.1n.a.Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.0.10.70.91.41.4n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.00000n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0.10.811.41.4n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.00000n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.00000n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.00000n.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Central Guarantee Fund for SMEs17/03/2020n.a8.3SACE- Italia Guarantee08/04/202011.31.6Commercial credits insurance19/05/20200.10.1Guarantee fund for first homes26/05/2021n.a0Subtotal     10.1Central Guarantee Fund for SMEsn.a1.0Guarantees provided by local authoritiesn.a0.1GACSn.a0.7Bond issues by CDP S.p.A.0.30.2Guarantee fund for first homesn.a0.6Guarantee for non-market risks in favour of SACE 08/04/20206.83.1Green New Deal Guarantees15/09/20200.10.1Subtotal 5.8Total15.9In response to COVID-19Others 
       
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
13. CYPRUS 

Table 13.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 13.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

72 

20242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)5.55.52.32.73.53.83.43.0Private consumption (% change)3.73.72.22.02.02.82.52.0Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-6.3-6.35.45.85.85.45.25.2Exports of goods and services (% change)14.013.41.72.84.63.84.23.8Imports of goods and services (% change)9.29.52.52.73.73.03.23.0Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand2.72.82.92.92.83.12.62.3- Change in inventories-0.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.0- Net exports3.42.7-0.60.00.70.60.80.7Output gap10.60.60.30.11.10.61.11.2Employment (% change)1.21.20.91.01.81.51.52.0Unemployment rate (%)7.57.57.87.17.36.46.05.5Labour productivity (% change)4.34.31.41.71.62.21.91.0HICP inflation (%)2.32.35.24.12.71.52.02.0GDP deflator (% change)2.72.44.54.53.21.52.02.0Comp. of employees (per head, % change)4.74.74.12.54.53.22.82.5Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-7.2-7.3-8.8-6.0-7.2-5.4-4.4-3.6202120222023202120242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   0.60.1n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.8-0.7n.a.-0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.50.6n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure00n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.90.2n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)10.23.53.50.62.12.93.2Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark0.84.33.70.61.92.63.0Change in the structural balance2.51.62.0-0.30.10.90.220222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 13.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Cyprus 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

73 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue42.440.741.739.941.341.340.6-1.8of which:- Taxes on production and imports14.413.514.212.714.114.013.9-0.5- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.69.810.410.010.410.310.2-0.4- Social contributions11.612.011.512.111.411.711.4-0.2- Other (residual)5.85.45.65.15.45.35.1-0.7RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.80.61.10.71.00.80.5Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00000000Expenditure44.141.041.740.040.939.938.9-5.2of which:- Primary expenditure42.239.440.138.739.738.837.7-4.5of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption17.317.117.016.617.116.716.3-1.0Compensation of employees12.812.812.712.812.812.612.4-0.4Intermediate consumption4.44.34.33.84.24.03.9-0.5Social payments16.416.216.316.216.115.815.6-0.8Subsidies2.50.40.40.10.40.40.3-2.2Gross fixed capital formation2.72.73.12.63.02.72.6-0.1Other (residual)3.43.13.33.23.13.12.9-0.5- Interest expenditure1.81.61.61.31.21.11.2-0.6Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.70.61.10.71.10.90.8General government balance (GGB)-1.7-0.30.0-0.20.41.51.73.4Primary balance0.21.31.61.11.62.62.92.7GGB excl. one-offs-1.8-0.30.0-0.20.41.51.73.5Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)2.5-3.9-1.23.50.1-3.2-3.5n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)1.24.8n.a.4.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)3.8-3.0-2.84.3-0.2-1.8-4.1n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)2.56.6n.a.5.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)15.27.37.35.95.9n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap20.60.30.11.10.61.11.20.6Cyclically-adjusted balance2-2.0-0.4-0.1-0.70.10.91.13.1One-offs0.1000000-0.1Structural balance3-2.1-0.4-0.1-0.70.10.91.13.2Structural primary balance3-0.21.11.50.61.32.02.32.520222023(% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 13.4:  General government debt developments 

Cyprus 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 13.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

74 

Average202420252016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio1100.1103.693.993.988.888.281.076.7Change in the ratio1.6-11.4-9.7-9.7-5.1-5.7-7.2-4.3Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.2-0.2-1.3-1.6-1.1-1.6-2.6-2.92. “Snow-ball” effect-1.3-6.9-5.0-5.4-4.5-3.5-3.4-2.6Of which:Interest expenditure2.41.81.61.61.31.21.11.2Growth effect-3.4-5.8-2.2-2.6-3.1-3.4-2.8-2.3Inflation effect-0.2-2.9-4.4-4.4-2.8-1.3-1.7-1.53. Stock-flow adjustment4.1-4.1-3.3-2.60.7-0.5-1.11.320222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term-0.4LOW risk-3.0LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]1.0LOW risk-0.9LOW riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]MEDIUM riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]63.848.9Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.4 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
   
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 13.6:  RRF - Grants 

Cyprus 

Source: National authorities. 

75 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.30.60.710.8n.a.Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.60.70.80.70.6n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.00000n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.00.10.10.10.1n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.0000.10.1n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.00.100.10n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.00.20.20.30.2n.a.Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.0.10.30.40.50.4n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.00.10.10.30.3n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0.20.40.50.70.7n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.00000n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.00000n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.00000n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 13.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Cyprus 

Source: National authorities. 

76 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.0.60.70.80.70.6n.a.Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.00000n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.00000n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.00000n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.00.10.10.10.1n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.00.10.10.10.1n.a.Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.00.10.10.10.1n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.00000n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.00.10.10.10.1n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.00000n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.00000n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.00000n.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 13.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Cyprus 

Source: National authorities. 

77 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Support to the tourism sector in the form of government guarantees related to credit notes issued for the cancellation of contracts due to the pandemic of COVID-19, in case of insolvency of the issuers2020n.a.n.a.Government guarantee scheme towards credit institutions for the granting of loan to businesses and self-employed individuals202100Subtotal     n.a.n.a.Stock of Government Guarantees (excluding related to Covid-19 and linked to the financial sector)n.a.7.3n.a.APS exposure (linked to the financial sector) n.a.5.8n.a.Subtotal 13.1n.a.Totaln.a.n.a.In response to COVID-19Others 
  
 
 
 
 
14. LATVIA 

Table 14.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 

Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 14.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

78 

20242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)4.54.82.02.12.92.53.33.4Private consumption (% change)4.84.85.03.73.84.44.04.0Gross fixed capital formation (% change)2.93.01.31.92.84.74.83.0Exports of goods and services (% change)6.26.21.3-3.04.1-0.14.05.0Imports of goods and services (% change)13.513.53.2-2.04.01.73.74.0Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand4.34.33.32.73.03.73.63.2- Change in inventories4.45.80-0.10000- Net exports-4.3-5.3-1.3-0.5-0.2-1.3-0.20.2Output gap1-1.6-1.6-1.7-1.8-0.9-1.7-0.70.4Employment (% change)-2.6-3.20.71.30.50.40.00.0Unemployment rate (%)7.67.67.37.67.16.76.25.9Labour productivity (% change)7.28.31.30.82.42.13.33.4HICP inflation (%)3.23.39.48.53.53.52.52.0GDP deflator (% change)6.86.77.28.75.14.22.72.3Comp. of employees (per head, % change)11.011.75.66.06.05.75.35.0Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)1.6-1.4-1.31.2-0.41.00.60.6202120222023202120242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   0.4-3.3n.a.3.2n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds0.3-0.8n.a.-0.9n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.2-0.3n.a.0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.1-0.7n.a.0.6n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.1-1.5n.a.2.7n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-2.01.2-0.74.01.21.31.2Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-2.52.90.24.11.71.40.9Change in the structural balance-3.60.33.93.91.300.220222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 14.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Latvia 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 

Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

79 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue37.636.735.936.436.035.134.4-3.2of which:- Taxes on production and imports13.513.312.912.912.912.812.6-0.9- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.26.76.56.46.46.36.3-0.9- Social contributions10.09.99.69.69.59.49.3-0.7- Other (residual)6.96.86.97.47.26.66.2-0.7RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.40.41.01.01.21.01.0Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00000000Expenditure44.944.042.439.438.837.336.1-8.8of which:- Primary expenditure44.443.441.838.838.236.735.5-8.9of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption17.717.316.916.815.915.114.6-3.1Compensation of employees11.711.110.910.810.19.79.3-2.4Intermediate consumption5.96.36.06.05.85.45.3-0.6Social payments14.113.412.912.612.412.011.8-2.3Subsidies0.91.30.80.70.80.70.7-0.2Gross fixed capital formation5.26.15.95.85.55.75.60.4Other (residual)6.55.35.33.03.73.22.9-3.6- Interest expenditure0.50.60.60.60.60.60.60.1Expenditure financed by RRF grants00.40.31.01.11.21.11.1General government balance (GGB)-7.3-7.2-6.5-3.0-2.8-2.3-1.75.6Primary balance-6.8-6.7-5.9-2.4-2.2-1.6-1.15.7GGB excl. one-offs-7.5-7.2-3.7-3.0-2.4-2.0-1.46.1Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)15.64.610.7-5.61.83.33.3n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)8.716.7n.a.-3.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)14.66.10.3-3.2-3.81.92.3n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)9.014.4n.a.-1.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)19.39.69.67.47.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-1.6-1.7-1.8-0.9-1.7-0.70.42.0Cyclically-adjusted balance2-6.7-6.6-5.8-2.7-2.1-2.0-1.94.9One-offs0.20-2.80-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.5Structural balance3-6.9-6.6-3.0-2.7-1.7-1.7-1.65.3Structural primary balance3-6.4-6.0-2.4-2.1-1.1-1.1-1.05.420222023(% of GDP) 
      
 
 
 
Table 14.4:  General government debt developments 

Latvia 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 14.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

80 

Average202420252016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio139.344.847.045.746.545.244.543.4Change in the ratio1.21.52.20.9-0.4-0.5-0.7-1.1Contributions2:1. Primary balance0.56.86.75.92.42.21.61.12. “Snow-ball” effect-0.5-3.9-3.2-3.7-2.9-2.3-1.9-1.8Of which:Interest expenditure0.80.50.60.60.60.60.60.6Growth effect-0.6-1.7-0.8-0.8-1.3-1.1-1.4-1.4Inflation effect-0.7-2.7-2.9-3.5-2.2-1.8-1.2-1.03. Stock-flow adjustment1.3-1.3-1.2-1.20.1-0.4-0.4-0.320222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term-0.5LOW risk-1.7LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]1.3LOW risk0.4LOW riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]48.341.3Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.2 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
   
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 14.6:  RRF - Grants 

Latvia 

Source: National authorities. 

81 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projections000.411.210.7Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU00.70.61.310.70.32020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.100n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.200n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments D.62+D.63200n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.4100n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.300n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.700n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE000.10.40.40.40.2Gross fixed capital formation P.51g000.20.70.80.70.5Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE000.20.70.80.70.52020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 14.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Latvia 

Source: National authorities. 

Table 14.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Source: National authorities. 

82 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0000000Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Credit guarantees20200.30.2Subtotal     0.30.300Subtotal 00Total0.30.3In response to COVID-19Others 
       
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
15. LITHUANIA 

Table 15.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 15.2:  Indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

83 

20242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)5.04.91.71.62.62.53.03.0Private consumption (% change)7.37.23.92.13.13.43.43.4Gross fixed capital formation (% change)7.07.02.72.74.54.85.45.4Exports of goods and services (% change)15.914.1-2.1-6.03.13.33.73.7Imports of goods and services (% change)18.717.0-0.9-6.03.64.14.14.1Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand5.95.82.91.92.93.03.23.3- Change in inventories-0.60-0.100000- Net exports-0.3-0.6-1.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.3-0.3Output gap1-0.3-0.2-1.4-1.2-2.1-1.8-1.3-0.7Employment (% change)1.20.80.2-0.20.10.1-0.3-0.4Unemployment rate (%)7.17.17.27.37.26.96.66.3Labour productivity (% change)3.84.11.61.92.52.43.33.4HICP inflation (%)4.64.612.59.83.03.02.02.0GDP deflator (% change)6.56.57.47.13.03.02.02.0Comp. of employees (per head, % change)11.411.68.710.76.25.25.05.0Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)3.63.0-0.31.6-0.71.2-0.2-0.5202120222023202120242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   1.9-4.2n.a.1.5n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds0.2-0.5n.a.-0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.8-0.3n.a.0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.2-0.1n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.7-3.2n.a.1.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)12.9-2.6-2.62.83.01.40.5Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark2.1-1.5-1.92.52.71.30.4Change in the structural balance6.2-3.1-3.52.62.70.90.120222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
Table 15.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Lithuania 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

84 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue37.737.037.437.037.337.537.4-0.3of which:- Taxes on production and imports12.211.611.811.712.112.212.1-0.1- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.9.99.910.29.510.110.410.60.7- Social contributions10.710.610.610.510.610.610.5-0.2- Other (residual)4.94.94.85.34.54.34.2-0.7RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.30.30.80.80.90.7n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure38.741.542.339.339.738.738.4-0.3of which:- Primary expenditure38.341.242.039.039.538.438.1-0.2of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption15.616.316.716.316.816.316.20.6Compensation of employees10.911.211.611.311.611.611.50.6Intermediate consumption4.75.15.15.05.14.84.80.1Social payments15.316.316.416.216.316.216.20.9Subsidies1.61.91.90.40.40.30.3-1.3Gross fixed capital formation3.23.73.83.33.33.33.30.1Other (residual)2.62.93.22.82.72.32.1-0.5- Interest expenditure0.40.30.30.30.20.30.3-0.1Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.3n.a.0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.General government balance (GGB)-1.0-4.6-4.9-2.3-2.4-1.3-1.00.0Primary balance-0.6-4.2-4.7-2.0-2.2-1.0-0.7-0.1GGB excl. one-offs-1.0-4.6-4.9-2.3-2.4-1.3-1.00.0Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)2.416.917.7-2.4-1.52.24.1n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.722.5n.a.0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)5.316.015.9-1.70.12.04.1n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)7.522.1n.a.1.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)19.910.810.86.36.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-0.3-1.4-1.2-2.1-1.8-1.3-0.7-0.5Cyclically-adjusted balance2-0.9-4.0-4.4-1.5-1.7-0.8-0.70.2One-offs0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-0.9-4.0-4.4-1.5-1.7-0.8-0.70.2Structural primary balance3-0.4-3.7-4.1-1.2-1.5-0.5-0.40.120222023(% of GDP) 
     
 
 
Table 15.4:  General government debt developments 

Lithuania 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 15.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

85 

Average202420252016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio139.044.342.743.343.143.742.642.5Change in the ratio0.8-2.3-1.6-1.00.30.4-1.1-0.1Contributions2:1. Primary balance0.20.64.24.72.02.21.00.72. “Snow-ball” effect-1.1-4.4-3.4-3.4-2.0-2.1-1.8-1.7Of which:Interest expenditure1.00.40.30.30.30.20.30.3Growth effect-1.1-2.1-0.7-0.7-1.0-1.0-1.2-1.2Inflation effect-1.0-2.7-3.0-2.9-1.2-1.2-0.8-0.83. Stock-flow adjustment1.81.7-2.4-2.30.30.3-0.30.920222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term-0.6LOW risk-1.1LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]2.5MEDIUM risk2.1MEDIUM riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]42.739.8Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.1 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 15.6:  RRF - Grants 

Lithuania 

Source: National authorities. 

86 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.0.30.80.90.7n.a.Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.50.90.90.50.3n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.n.a.0.10.30.40.3n.a.Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.n.a.0.20.50.50.4n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 15.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Lithuania 

Source: National authorities. 

87 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.000000Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.000000Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.000000Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.000000Interest expenditure D.41n.a.000000Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.000000Current transfers D.7n.a.000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.000000Capital transfers D.9n.a.000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.000000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 15.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Lithuania 

Source: National authorities. 

88 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Portfolio guarantees administered by INVEGA2020 June0.20.1State guarantees on loans and non-equity securities used to meet the objectives of stimulating economy affected by emergencies and to increase the financial liquidity of business2020 March0.50.1State guarantees on the establishment of a European instrument for temporary support to mitigate unemployment risks in an emergency (SURE) following the COVID-19 outbreak2020 September0.10.1State guarantees on the European Investment Bank set up by the European Guarantee Fund to respond to the COVID-19 2020 July0.10Subtotal     0.90.4State guarantees on INVEGA commitments under guarantees0.40.2State guarantees on the ACGF commitments under guarantees0.40.2State guarantees on loans to finance public investment projects and/or used to supplement the working capital of enterprises important for ensuring national security, which are specified in the Republic of Lithuania Law on the Protection of Objects of Importance to Ensuring National Security0.30.2State guarantees on State-subsidized loans specified in the Republic of Lithuania Law on Science and Studies0.20.1Subtotal 1.40.7Total2.31.1In response to COVID-19Others 
  
 
 
 
 
16. LUXEMBOURG 

Table 16.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 16.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

89 

202420252026COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)6.96.92.21.42.72.92.92.62.6Private consumption (% change)7.47.43.76.02.94.53.63.22.8Gross fixed capital formation (% change)12.312.31.30.72.12.01.10.51.3Exports of goods and services (% change)9.79.73.84.83.15.15.24.74.6Imports of goods and services (% change)10.410.44.36.43.15.65.55.04.9Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand5.22.91.92.51.62.21.81.71.7- Change in inventories-0.30.00.00.10.00.00.00.00.0- Net exports2.04.10.4-1.01.10.81.00.90.9Output gap100.1-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.100Employment (% change)3.13.12.62.42.52.12.22.32.2Unemployment rate (%)5.36.25.25.75.15.65.55.55.4Labour productivity (% change)3.73.7-0.3-0.90.20.80.60.30.4HICP inflation (%)3.53.56.86.22.31.12.01.21.7GDP deflator (% change)6.86.84.03.92.11.51.41.51.6Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.15.44.85.13.62.41.71.92.1Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)6.7n.a.5.2n.a.4.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.202120222023COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   1.1-1.3n.a.0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds0.10n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.5-0.1n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.30.1n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.8-1.2n.a.0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)12.7-0.6-0.50.60.2-0.4n.a.n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark2.2-0.6-0.10.60.4-0.3n.a.n.a.Change in the structural balance2.5-0.8-1.20.3-0.6-0.100.2(% of GDP) 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 16.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Luxembourg 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

90 

2021202420252026Change: 2021-2026COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPSPRevenue43.242.642.842.442.843.043.143.20of which:- Taxes on production and imports11.611.612.011.711.911.811.811.70.1- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.15.615.014.714.714.814.915.115.2-0.4- Social contributions11.711.811.811.911.912.012.012.00.3- Other (residual)4.34.14.34.14.24.34.24.30RRF grants as included in the revenue projections00000000Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants000000000Expenditure42.342.743.542.343.243.343.343.20.9of which:- Primary expenditure42.142.643.442.243.043.143.142.90.8of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption14.114.314.514.214.514.514.414.30.2Compensation of employees9.910.010.110.110.310.410.410.40.5Intermediate consumption4.24.34.44.14.14.14.03.9-0.3Social payments18.118.318.318.218.618.819.019.31.2Subsidies1.01.01.11.01.01.01.00.9-0.1Gross fixed capital formation4.04.14.14.24.34.34.24.20.2Other (residual)4.94.95.34.64.64.64.44.3-0.6- Interest expenditure0.20.10.10.10.20.20.20.30.1Expenditure financed by RRF grants000000000General government balance (GGB)0.9-0.1-0.70.1-0.4-0.3-0.20.0-0.9Primary balance1.00.0-0.60.2-0.2-0.20.00.3-0.7GGB excl. one-offs0.9-0.1-0.70.1-0.4-0.3-0.20.0-0.9Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)3.28.37.74.54.55.53.4n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)7.010.0n.a.3.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)3.58.68.13.34.85.73.8n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)7.310.4n.a.3.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. mominal 10-year average potential growth (%)19.56.86.84.84.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap20.0-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.100-0.1Cyclically-adjusted balance20.90.1-0.30.4-0.1-0.2-0.20-0.9One-offs000000000.0Structural balance30.90.1-0.30.4-0.1-0.2-0.20-0.9Structural primary balance31.10.2-0.20.60.10.00.00.3-0.720222023(% of GDP)Notes: 
   
 
 
Table 16.4:  General government debt developments 

Luxembourg 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 16.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

91 

Average2024202520262016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPSPGross debt ratio121.924.424.725.425.125.826.226.225.9Change in the ratio0.7-0.40.31.00.40.40.40-0.3Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.4-1.00.00.6-0.20.20.20.0-0.32. “Snow-ball” effect-0.4-2.8-1.3-1.1-1.0-0.9-1.0-0.8-0.8Of which:Interest expenditure0.30.20.10.10.10.20.20.20.3Growth effect-0.4-1.5-0.5-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.7-0.7Inflation effect-0.3-1.5-0.9-0.9-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.4-0.43. Stock-flow adjustment2.53.61.71.61.71.11.20.80.820222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term-3.5LOW risk-2.7LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]7.4HIGH risk7.4HIGH riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]19.423.0Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
   
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 16.6:  RRF - Grants 

Luxembourg 

Source: National authorities. 

92 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.000000Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.000000Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.000000Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.000000Interest expenditure D.41n.a.000000Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.000000Current transfers D.7n.a.000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.000000Capital transfers D.9n.a.000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.000000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 16.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Luxembourg 

Source: National authorities. 

Table 16.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Source: National authorities. 

93 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.000000Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.000000Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.000000Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.000000Interest expenditure D.41n.a.000000Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.000000Current transfers D.7n.a.000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.000000Capital transfers D.9n.a.000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.000000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)State guarantee schemeApril 20203.40.2Ducroire Office (further support for exports, including to markets affected by COVID-19)April 20200.20.1 European Guarantee Fund at the EIBApril 20200.10SURE GuaranteeApril 20200.10.1Subtotal     3.80.4 State guarantees (not COVID-19 related)8.35.7of which in the financial sector5.24.3Subtotal 8.35.7Total12.16.1In response to COVID-19Others 
       
 
 
 
   
 
17. HUNGARY 

Table 17.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

Table 17.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

94 

202420252026COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)7.17.13.64.32.64.14.24.34.3Private consumption (% change)4.64.64.85.52.54.44.44.54.5Gross fixed capital formation (% change)5.95.90.92.71.24.24.44.14.1Exports of goods and services (% change)10.310.34.95.75.96.36.57.57.5Imports of goods and services (% change)8.78.73.84.94.65.55.76.56.5Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand4.64.62.53.61.53.63.63.53.5- Change in inventories1.11.10.1000000- Net exports1.41.41.00.61.00.60.70.90.9Output gap1-0.2-0.5-0.5-0.9-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.30.0Employment (% change)2.00.71.70.70.60.30.20.10.1Unemployment rate (%)4.14.13.83.64.03.33.12.92.8Labour productivity (% change)5.06.41.93.61.93.84.04.24.3HICP inflation (%)5.25.29.08.94.15.23.03.03.0GDP deflator (% change)6.96.95.65.74.67.34.84.03.7Comp. of employees (per head, % change)9.28.98.712.26.59.38.88.58.2Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-0.3-0.5-3.4-2.6-0.80.60.50.92.02021202220232021202420252026COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -3.4-0.1n.a.1.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.41.0n.a.-0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.8-0.2n.a.-0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-1.5-0.4n.a.0.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-2.2-0.4n.a.1.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-0.30.70.91.9-0.70.70.7n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-0.3-0.80.33.00.41.30.7n.a.Change in the structural balance-0.40.82.61.31.30.90.90.420222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 17.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Hungary 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

95 

2021202420252026Change: 2021-2026COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPCPRevenue41.141.341.141.441.641.140.339.4-1.7of which:- Taxes on production and imports17.518.017.118.117.216.916.516.1-1.4- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.5.66.87.36.77.37.37.37.31.7- Social contributions10.510.010.49.810.210.310.310.2-0.3- Other (residual)7.66.56.36.86.96.66.25.8-1.8RRF grants as included in the revenue projections1.20.60.80.81.00.50.2-0.4Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00000000n.a.Expenditure47.947.346.046.445.143.641.840.4-7.5of which:- Primary expenditure45.644.643.343.442.140.639.037.7-7.9of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption18.718.618.117.917.116.415.515.1-3.6Compensation of employees10.210.910.910.39.79.58.88.5-1.7Intermediate consumption8.57.7n.a.7.67.46.86.76.6-1.9Social payments12.312.312.512.012.111.711.210.8-1.5Subsidies1.31.11.11.11.11.00.90.8-0.5Gross fixed capital formation5.85.45.35.95.66.26.16.00.2Other (residual)7.57.26.36.56.25.45.25.0-2.5- Interest expenditure2.32.72.73.03.03.02.82.70.4Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.50.60.70.80.81.00.40.3-0.3General government balance (GGB)-6.8-6.0-4.9-4.9-3.5-2.5-1.5-1.05.8Primary balance-4.4-3.3-2.2-1.9-0.50.51.31.76.1GGB excl. one-offs-6.7-6.0-4.2-4.9-3.5-2.5-1.5-1.05.7Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)10.09.78.92.77.44.84.5n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)18.111.7n.a.2.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)14.78.513.02.21.74.43.8n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)17.310.4n.a.2.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. mominal 10-year average potential growth (%)110.29.09.08.08.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-0.2-0.5-0.9-1.1-0.8-0.6-0.30.00.5Cyclically-adjusted balance2-6.7-5.8-4.5-4.4-3.1-2.2-1.4-1.05.5One-offs-0.10.0-0.70.00.00.00.00.00.1Structural balance3-6.6-5.8-3.8-4.4-3.1-2.2-1.4-1.05.4Structural primary balance3-4.3-3.1-1.1-1.4-0.10.81.41.75.820222023(% of GDP) 
  
 
 
Table 17.4:  General government debt developments 

Hungary 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

Table 17.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 convergence programme. 

96 

Average2024202520262016-2020COMCPCOMCPCPCPCPGross debt ratio172.276.876.476.176.173.870.466.963.1Change in the ratio0.8-2.8-0.4-0.7-0.3-2.3-3.4-3.5-3.8Contributions2:1. Primary balance0.74.43.32.21.90.5-0.5-1.3-1.72. “Snow-ball” effect-1.9-7.4-3.8-4.3-2.1-4.8-3.1-2.6-2.3Of which:Interest expenditure2.52.32.72.73.03.03.02.82.7Growth effect-1.6-4.9-2.5-3.0-1.8-2.8-2.8-2.8-2.7Inflation effect-2.8-4.8-3.9-4.0-3.3-5.0-3.2-2.6-2.33. Stock-flow adjustment2.00.50.21.60.02.20.30.50.320222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term1.9MEDIUM risk-1.7LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]6.3HIGH risk3.7MEDIUM riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]LOW riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]72.846.1Commission scenarioConvergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 17.6:  RRF - Grants 

Hungary 

Source: National authorities. 

97 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.60.60.81.00.50.2Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.0.60.20.20.30.10.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.00.50.60.70.30.2Capital transfers D.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.00.50.60.70.30.22020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 17.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Hungary 

Source: National authorities. 

98 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0000000Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 17.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Hungary 

Source: National authorities. 

99 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)AVHGA – Crisis Rural Guarantee Programmen.a.0.3n.a.Magyar Export-Import Bank Zrt. - EXIM Compensation Loan Programmen.a.1.3n.a.Magyar Export-Import Bank Zrt. - EXIM Compensation Loan Protection Programmen.a.0.1n.a.Garantiqa Hitelgarancia Zrt. – Garantiqa Crisis Guarantee Programmen.a.4.5n.a.MFB Magyar Fejlesztési Bank Zrt. - MFB Force Majeure Guarantee Programmen.a.0.1n.a.MFB Magyar Fejlesztési Bank Zrt. - MFB Crisis Credit Programmen.a.0.3n.a.MFB Magyar Fejlesztési Bank Zrt. - MFB Competitiveness Credit Programmen.a.0n.a.Subtotal     6.6n.a.0n.a.Subtotal 0n.a.Total6.6n.a.In response to COVID-19Others 
  
 
 
 
 
18. MALTA 

Table 18.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 18.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

100 

20242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)9.49.44.24.44.03.93.73.5Private consumption (% change)6.26.23.83.43.42.72.52.5Gross fixed capital formation (% change)19.319.32.51.84.96.35.04.1Exports of goods and services (% change)8.28.25.53.64.73.53.02.8Imports of goods and services (% change)7.67.66.03.44.33.22.62.3Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand8.08.04.03.62.93.12.82.5- Change in inventories-0.4-0.4000000- Net exports1.81.80.10.81.10.80.91.0Output gap1-1.3-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.4Employment (% change)1.61.62.12.42.02.12.22.3Unemployment rate (%)3.53.53.63.43.63.53.53.6Labour productivity (% change)7.77.72.01.92.01.71.51.2HICP inflation (%)0.70.74.53.52.62.21.81.7GDP deflator (% change)1.71.92.82.92.61.81.81.5Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.55.53.83.12.92.92.52.4Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)5.1-5.32.91.82.93.03.84.5202120222023202120242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -3.5-1.5n.a.1.1n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds0.5-0.2n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.40.3n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.10.0n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-3.7-1.6n.a.1.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-2.21.91.62.42.22.41.2Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-2.72.61.92.72.31.70.9Change in the structural balance-1.22.22.30.90.81.70.420222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 18.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Malta 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

101 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue37.538.338.138.238.137.636.9-0.6of which:- Taxes on production and imports10.811.511.511.811.912.212.11.3- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.14.014.714.814.214.414.314.30.3- Social contributions6.36.16.15.96.05.95.8-0.5- Other (residual)6.46.15.76.25.85.24.7-1.7RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.40.40.50.50.60.40.4Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00000000Expenditure45.543.943.642.842.740.339.3-6.2of which:- Primary expenditure44.442.842.541.741.639.238.2-6.2of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption21.522.122.021.521.421.221.0-0.5Compensation of employees12.212.212.112.112.112.212.20.0Intermediate consumption9.49.99.99.49.39.08.8-0.6Social payments9.69.89.89.69.69.69.4-0.2Subsidies4.73.02.92.92.91.61.4-3.3Gross fixed capital formation4.24.14.14.24.23.73.4-0.8Other (residual)4.43.93.83.63.53.23.0-1.4- Interest expenditure1.21.11.11.11.11.11.1-0.1Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.40.40.50.50.60.40.4General government balance (GGB)-8.0-5.6-5.4-4.6-4.6-2.8-2.45.6Primary balance-6.8-4.4-4.4-3.5-3.5-1.7-1.35.5GGB excl. one-offs-8.0-5.6-5.5-4.6-4.6-2.8-2.45.6Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)13.62.11.20.10.90.83.0n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)18.811.0n.a.3.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)13.72.52.3-0.6-0.31.93.6n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)19.312.5n.a.2.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)16.77.47.46.86.8n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-1.3-0.9-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.40.8Cyclically-adjusted balance2-7.4-5.2-5.1-4.3-4.3-2.6-2.25.2One-offs00000000Structural balance3-7.4-5.2-5.1-4.3-4.3-2.6-2.25.2Structural primary balance3-6.2-4.0-4.0-3.2-3.2-1.5-1.15.120222023(% of GDP) 
     
 
 
Table 18.4:  General government debt developments 

Malta 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 18.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

102 

Average202420252016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio148.157.058.558.659.559.458.657.2Change in the ratio-0.63.61.51.61.00.8-0.8-1.4Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.16.84.44.43.53.51.71.32. “Snow-ball” effect-1.0-4.2-2.6-2.8-2.5-2.1-2.1-1.7Of which:Interest expenditure1.61.21.11.11.11.11.11.1Growth effect-1.7-4.5-2.2-2.3-2.2-2.2-2.1-2.0Inflation effect-0.9-0.8-1.5-1.6-1.4-1.0-1.1-0.83. Stock-flow adjustment1.61.0-0.30.10.0-0.6-0.4-1.020222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term1.2MEDIUM risk-1.1LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]10.1HIGH risk8.3HIGH riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]MEDIUM riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]65.950.5Commission scenarioStabilityprogramme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.2 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 18.6:  RRF - Grants 

Malta 

Source: National authorities. 

103 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.00.40.50.60.40Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.30.40.60.60.202020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.000000Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.000000Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.000000Interest expenditure D.41n.a.000000Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.000000Current transfers D.7n.a.000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.00.40.50.60.40Capital transfers D.9n.a.000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.00.40.50.60.402020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.000000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 18.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Malta 

Source: National authorities. 

Table 18.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Source: National authorities. 

104 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.000000Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.000000Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.000000Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.000000Interest expenditure D.41n.a.000000Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.000000Current transfers D.7n.a.000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.000000Capital transfers D.9n.a.000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.000000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Malta Development Bank - COVID-19 Guarantee Scheme20202.41.3EU SURE loan instrument20200.20.2Subtotal     2.61.5Non-financial corporations6.95.1Financial corporations3.21.6Households and NPISHs0.10.1Subtotal 10.26.8Total12.88.2In response to COVID-19Others 
      
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
19. THE NETHERLANDS 

Table 19.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 19.2:  Indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

105 

202420252026COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)5.04.83.33.61.61.72.01.71.4Private consumption (% change)3.53.54.64.71.91.52.11.41.2Gross fixed capital formation (% change)3.53.32.93.72.93.62.42.51.3Exports of goods and services (% change)6.66.93.94.93.54.33.02.92.6Imports of goods and services (% change)5.15.24.15.54.35.53.63.43.0Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand3.74.53.03.61.92.32.41.91.6- Change in inventories-0.3-1.20.00.30.00.10.10.10.1- Net exports1.71.90.30.1-0.4-0.5-0.2-0.1-0.1Output gap1-0.7-0.90.90.70.80.40.40.30Employment (% change)1.81.72.01.51.10.61.00.60.2Unemployment rate (%)4.24.24.04.04.24.34.44.44.6Labour productivity (% change)3.23.01.22.10.41.11.01.11.2HICP inflation (%)2.82.87.45.92.72.21.92.31.8GDP deflator (% change)2.42.53.83.43.33.02.52.52.2Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.10.13.12.63.73.64.13.93.8Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)9.59.48.89.88.79.18.88.58.42021202220232021202420252026COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -0.2-2.6n.a.0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds00n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.10n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.2-0.5n.a.-0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.1-2.0n.a.1.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-0.3-0.2n.a.1.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-0.4-0.12.11.40.8-0.1-0.4n.a.Change in the structural balance-0.7-1.2-1.10.70-0.2-0.3-0.120222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 19.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

The Netherlands 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

106 

2021202420252026Change: 2021-2026COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPSPRevenue43.842.542.442.642.942.442.442.5-1.3of which:- Taxes on production and imports12.211.711.511.811.811.811.611.6-0.6- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.13.513.313.813.114.013.813.613.80.3- Social contributions13.613.112.913.113.012.813.213.3-0.3- Other (residual)4.54.44.24.54.14.04.03.8-0.7RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.100.100000Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants000000000Expenditure46.345.244.844.645.244.945.445.7-0.6of which:- Primary expenditure45.844.844.444.344.944.645.145.4-0.4of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption15.114.714.814.614.714.814.814.8-0.3Compensation of employees8.68.78.78.78.78.88.88.90.3Intermediate consumption6.66.0n.a.6.06.06.06.06.0-0.6Social payments21.621.521.221.321.321.521.822.10.5Subsidies3.52.62.61.81.71.92.02.1-1.4Gross fixed capital formation3.33.33.53.43.63.73.83.80.5Other (residual)2.32.72.43.23.52.72.72.60.3- Interest expenditure0.60.40.40.40.30.30.30.3-0.3Expenditure financed by RRF grants00.100.100000General government balance (GGB)-2.5-2.7-2.5-2.1-2.3-2.5-2.9-3.2-0.7Primary balance-2.0-2.3-2.0-1.7-1.9-2.2-2.6-2.9-0.9GGB excl. one-offs-2.4-2.7-2.5-2.1-2.3-2.5-2.9-3.2-0.8Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)4.75.81.21.63.15.15.0n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.511.8n.a.3.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)4.54.62.10.0-0.27.04.8n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.311.0n.a.2.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. mominal 10-year average potential growth (%)14.05.45.44.84.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-0.70.90.70.80.40.40.30.00.9Cyclically-adjusted balance2-2.1-3.2-2.9-2.5-2.5-2.8-3.1-3.2-1.2One-offs-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.1Structural balance3-2.0-3.2-2.9-2.5-2.5-2.8-3.1-3.2-1.3Structural primary balance3-1.4-2.8-2.5-2.2-2.2-2.5-2.8-2.9-1.620222023(% of GDP) 
   
 
 
Table 19.4:  General government debt developments 

The Netherlands 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 19.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

107 

Average2024202520262016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPSPGross debt ratio154.852.151.453.150.952.753.154.456.1Change in the ratio-2.1-2.3-0.61.0-0.5-0.40.41.31.7Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.12.02.32.01.71.92.22.62.92. “Snow-ball” effect-0.8-3.2-3.0-2.9-2.0-2.0-2.0-1.9-1.6Of which:Interest expenditure0.90.60.40.40.40.30.30.30.3Growth effect-0.7-2.5-1.6-1.7-0.8-0.9-1.0-0.9-0.7Inflation effect-1.0-1.2-1.8-1.6-1.6-1.5-1.3-1.3-1.13. Stock-flow adjustment-0.2-1.00.22.0-0.2-0.30.20.60.420222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term1.9MEDIUM risk3.5HIGH riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]6.2HIGH risk6.8HIGH riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]MEDIUM riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]63.268.4Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.2 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
   
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 19.6:  RRF - Grants 

The Netherlands 

Source: National authorities. 

108 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0000000Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 19.7:  RRF - LOANS 

The Netherlands 

Source: National authorities. 

109 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0000000Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 19.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

The Netherlands 

Source: National authorities. 

110 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Guarantee Royal Dutch Airlines (KLM)202000.3EIB - pan European guarantee fund20200.20.2Next Generation EU (NGEU)20203.23.2Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE)20200.70.7Reinsurance for supplier credit20201.40Other guarantees20200.30Subtotal     5.94.4European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)n.a.4.04.0European Stability Mechanism (ESM)n.a.4.14.1DNB - capital contribution in IMFn.a.3.53.5Export credit insurancen.a.1.22.5Guarantee corporate finance (GO)n.a.1.70European Investment Bank (EIB)n.a.1.41.4Nuclear accidents (WAKO)n.a.1.11.1Other guaranteesn.a.3.43.5Subtotal 20.420.2Total26.324.6In response to COVID-19Others 
  
 
 
 
 
20. AUSTRIA 

Table 20.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 20.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

111 

20242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)4.54.53.93.91.92.01.81.6Private consumption (% change)3.33.34.13.92.32.32.31.7Gross fixed capital formation (% change)4.04.03.73.52.32.52.12.2Exports of goods and services (% change)12.712.76.36.13.83.93.33.2Imports of goods and services (% change)14.514.54.64.63.83.83.63.4Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand4.14.12.82.51.91.81.91.6- Change in inventories0.50.90.10.500.10.10.1- Net exports-0.5-0.51.00.900.1-0.2-0.2Output gap1-2.7-2.7-0.2-0.30.300.20.1Employment (% change)2.12.12.91.90.91.10.50.4Unemployment rate (%)6.26.25.04.94.84.74.64.5Labour productivity (% change)2.42.41.01.91.00.91.31.1HICP inflation (%)2.82.86.05.83.03.22.52.3GDP deflator (% change)1.81.83.43.53.23.52.62.2Comp. of employees (per head, % change)3.43.41.53.72.65.03.93.4Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-0.6-0.2-1.1-0.4-0.9-0.100202120222023202120242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -1.6-1.2n.a.0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.1-0.1n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.3-0.3n.a.0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.1-0.4n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.4-0.5n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-1.31.91.51.40.90.71.2Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-1.12.32.01.00.70.51.2Change in the structural balance0.41.41.51.41.40.70.420222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 20.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Austria 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

112 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue50.048.849.148.948.948.949.1-0.9of which:- Taxes on production and imports13.913.713.713.713.613.713.7-0.2- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.14.013.613.613.713.613.613.9-0.1- Social contributions15.915.615.615.715.715.715.7-0.2- Other (residual)6.25.96.25.86.05.95.8-0.4RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.30.20.20.20.10.10Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00000000Expenditure55.951.952.250.350.449.649.4-6.5of which:- Primary expenditure54.851.051.249.449.448.648.4-6.4of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption18.417.617.317.317.217.117.0-1.4Compensation of employees11.010.610.610.710.710.710.6-0.4Intermediate consumption7.47.06.76.66.66.46.3-1.1Social payments24.122.822.922.722.622.622.6-1.5Subsidies4.52.22.21.71.71.61.5-3.0Gross fixed capital formation3.53.73.73.33.33.13.2-0.3Other (residual)4.44.74.94.34.64.24.2-0.2- Interest expenditure1.11.01.01.01.01.01.0-0.1Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.20.20.20.20.10.10General government balance (GGB)-5.9-3.1-3.1-1.5-1.5-0.7-0.35.6Primary balance-4.8-2.1-2.1-0.5-0.50.30.75.5GGB excl. one-offs-5.9-3.1-3.1-1.5-1.5-0.7-0.35.6Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)5.40.61.41.52.53.01.5n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)6.37.0n.a.3.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)5.2-1.1-0.22.13.13.71.2n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)6.25.7n.a.4.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)13.04.74.74.44.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-2.7-0.2-0.30.30.00.20.12.8Cyclically-adjusted balance2-4.4-3.0-2.9-1.6-1.5-0.8-0.44.0One-offs00000000Structural balance3-4.4-3.0-2.9-1.6-1.5-0.8-0.44.0Structural primary balance3-3.3-2.0-1.9-0.6-0.50.20.63.920222023(% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 20.4:  General government debt developments 

Austria 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 20.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

113 

Average202420252016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio177.982.880.080.077.577.174.572.1Change in the ratio-0.3-0.5-2.8-2.8-2.5-2.9-2.6-2.4Contributions2:1. Primary balance0.34.82.12.10.50.5-0.3-0.72. “Snow-ball” effect0.1-3.8-4.6-4.7-2.9-3.2-2.2-1.7Of which:Interest expenditure1.71.11.01.01.01.01.01.0Growth effect-0.3-3.5-3.0-3.0-1.4-1.5-1.3-1.1Inflation effect-1.3-1.4-2.6-2.7-2.4-2.7-1.9-1.63. Stock-flow adjustment-0.7-1.4-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.10020222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term1.7MEDIUM risk0.0LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]3.4MEDIUM risk1.9LOW riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]73.562.6Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.2 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
   
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 20.6:  RRF - Grants 

Austria 

Source: National authorities. 

114 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.10.20.20.10.1n.a.Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.10.20.20.10.1n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.00000n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.00000n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.00000n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.00000n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.00000n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.00000n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.0.10.10.100n.a.Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.00000n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.00.10.10.10.1n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.00.10.20.10.1n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.00000n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.00000n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.00000n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 20.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Austria 

Source: National authorities. 

115 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.00000n.a.Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.00000n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.00000n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.00000n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.00000n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.00000n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.00000n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.00000n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.00000n.a.Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.00000n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.00000n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.00000n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.00000n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.00000n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.00000n.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 20.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Austria 

Source: National authorities. 

116 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)aws SME Promotion Act (aws KMU-FG)20200.90.6aws Guarantee Act 1977 (aws GG)20200.50.1ÖHT Authorized to perform travel services20200.10OeKB Special Framework KRR (Kontrollbank Refinancing Framework) 20200.70.2OeKB 90%20200.1ÖHT SME Promotion Act (ÖHT KMU-FG)20200.40.2Subtotal     2.51.300Subtotal 00Total2.51.3In response to COVID-19Others 
  
 
 
 
 
21. POLAND 

Table 21.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

Table 21.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

117 

20242025COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)5.95.93.73.83.03.23.03.1Private consumption (% change)6.06.04.85.93.74.02.72.9Gross fixed capital formation (% change)3.83.84.14.83.94.02.52.7Exports of goods and services (% change)11.811.85.54.53.94.03.63.6Imports of goods and services (% change)15.915.95.74.13.83.12.92.9Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand4.77.13.63.43.12.52.42.6- Change in inventories2.42.40.0-0.9-0.2-0.90.00.0- Net exports-1.2-1.20.10.40.10.70.60.5Output gap1-0.6-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.9-0.8-0.9-0.5Employment (% change)1.52.60.41.20.3-0.1-0.1-0.3Unemployment rate (%)3.43.44.12.73.92.62.62.6Labour productivity (% change)4.43.33.32.62.73.23.13.4HICP inflation (%)5.25.211.69.17.37.84.83.5GDP deflator (% change)5.85.810.08.07.87.14.63.5Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.00.09.510.38.010.18.37.1Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)2.91.01.0-0.11.30.60.41.2202120222023202120242025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   1.7-3.4n.a.1.7n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds0.3-0.1n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.1-0.3n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.3-0.4n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure1.6-2.7n.a.1.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)13.3-0.70.21.71.81.41.1Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark3.0-0.20.51.72.01.40.9Change in the structural balance4.1-2.3-2.00.10.70.60.420222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 21.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Poland 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

118 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPRevenue42.339.940.038.639.939.739.7-2.6of which:- Taxes on production and imports15.214.714.515.015.114.814.7-0.5- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.47.37.36.17.07.17.2-1.2- Social contributions14.013.614.013.213.813.813.7-0.3- Other (residual)4.84.44.24.34.04.04.1-0.7RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.4n.a.0.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0000000n.a.Expenditure44.243.944.443.043.642.842.2-2.0of which:- Primary expenditure43.142.442.741.241.540.740.1-3.0of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption16.516.216.315.716.116.116.1-0.4Compensation of employees10.510.210.210.010.19.99.9-0.6Intermediate consumption5.96.06.15.86.16.26.20.3Social payments17.917.517.617.116.816.916.8-1.1Subsidies1.20.70.60.60.40.40.4-0.8Gross fixed capital formation4.14.24.23.94.34.24.20.1Other (residual)3.44.04.03.93.83.12.6-0.8- Interest expenditure1.11.51.71.82.12.12.11.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants00.40.30.60.60.70.8n.a.General government balance (GGB)-1.9-4.0-4.3-4.4-3.7-3.1-2.5-0.6Primary balance-0.8-2.5-2.7-2.6-1.6-1.0-0.40.4GGB excl. one-offs-2.1-4.3-4.2-4.4-3.7-3.1-2.5-0.4Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)1.915.514.06.66.85.04.6n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)5.623.6n.a.6.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)1.713.813.47.25.55.34.9n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.622.7n.a.7.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)19.513.813.811.411.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.9-0.8-0.9-0.5-0.1Cyclically-adjusted balance2-1.6-3.7-4.0-4.0-3.3-2.6-2.3-0.6One-offs0.20.3-0.10.00.00.00.0-0.2Structural balance3-1.8-4.0-3.9-4.0-3.3-2.6-2.3-0.4Structural primary balance3-0.7-2.5-2.2-2.2-1.2-0.5-0.20.620222023(% of GDP) 
     
 
 
Table 21.4:  General government debt developments 

Poland 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

Table 21.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 Convergence programme. 

119 

Average202420252016-2020COMCPCOMCPCPCPGross debt ratio151.353.850.852.149.851.551.049.7Change in the ratio1.2-3.4-3.0-1.7-1.0-0.6-0.5-1.3Contributions2:1. Primary balance0.90.82.52.72.61.61.00.42. “Snow-ball” effect-1.1-4.9-5.0-4.1-3.2-2.7-1.5-1.1Of which:Interest expenditure1.51.11.51.71.82.12.12.1Growth effect-1.5-3.0-1.8-1.8-1.4-1.5-1.4-1.5Inflation effect-1.0-3.0-4.7-3.8-3.6-3.3-2.2-1.73. Stock-flow adjustment1.41.0-0.3-0.2-0.40.70.1-0.620222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term0.5MEDIUM risk-1.4LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]4.4MEDIUM risk2.9MEDIUM riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]53.943.2Commission scenarioConvergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.2 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 21.6:  RRF - Grants 

Poland 

Source: National authorities. 

120 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.00.20.30.20.20.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.00.10.30.50.60.32020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 21.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Poland 

Source: National authorities. 

Table 21.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Source: National authorities. 

121 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.000.10.10.20Capital transfers D.9n.a.0000.20.20.1TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.000.10.30.40.12020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)State Treasury guarantees related to the issuance of bonds by the Polish Development Fund (PFR)2020n.a.2.9State Treasury guarantees for BGK’s liabilities incurred for the COVID-19 Fund2020n.a.7.2Subtotal     10.1Other government guaranteesn.a.6.0Subtotal n.a.6.0Totaln.a.16.1In response to COVID-19Others 
      
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
22. PORTUGAL 

Table 22.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 22.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

122 

202420252026COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)4.94.95.85.02.73.32.62.62.5Private consumption (% change)4.54.54.64.32.32.11.92.01.9Gross fixed capital formation (% change)6.46.46.57.95.26.76.75.05.0Exports of goods and services (% change)13.113.112.313.14.15.24.14.14.0Imports of goods and services (% change)12.912.98.611.54.14.14.03.83.8Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand4.95.14.54.62.82.82.72.52.4- Change in inventories0.20.2000000.10- Net exports-0.2-0.21.30.4-0.10.400.10Output gap1-3.3-3.30.3-0.60.90.10.30.50.7Employment (% change)2.12.11.01.30.90.70.40.40.4Unemployment rate (%)6.66.65.76.05.55.85.65.45.2Labour productivity (% change)2.82.84.83.71.72.62.22.12.1HICP inflation (%)0.90.94.43.31.91.71.71.71.7GDP deflator (% change)0.70.72.92.33.12.52.02.01.9Comp. of employees (per head, % change)3.83.84.23.22.63.23.03.03.0Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)0.70.70.31.61.62.52.32.41.42021202220232021202420252026COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -1.4-2.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-1.0-0.5n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.1-0.2n.a.-0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0-0.2n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.3-1.1n.a.0.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-1.4-0.6-0.40.71.30.80.9n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-0.20.10.40.71.30.80.6n.a.Change in the structural balance0.5-0.600.40.80.30.2020222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 22.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Portugal 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

123 

2021202420252026COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue45.344.244.744.144.343.743.141.6of which:- Taxes on production and imports15.315.015.315.115.114.914.714.5- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.9.79.59.69.69.69.69.59.4- Social contributions12.812.412.512.112.412.212.111.9- Other (residual)7.57.27.37.37.27.06.85.8RRF grants as included in the revenue projections1.41.31.61.61.41.10.2Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00000000Expenditure48.146.146.745.145.044.143.141.6of which:- Primary expenditure45.743.944.442.942.842.141.139.7of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption17.616.817.016.516.516.215.915.6Compensation of employees11.811.311.411.111.211.010.910.7Intermediate consumption5.85.6n.a.5.45.45.25.04.9Social payments19.618.718.918.318.318.017.617.3Subsidies2.00.90.80.60.60.50.50.4Gross fixed capital formation2.53.13.23.43.63.73.73.3Other (residual)4.04.44.54.13.83.63.53.0- Interest expenditure2.42.22.32.22.22.02.01.9Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.01.31.41.61.61.41.10.3General government balance (GGB)-2.8-1.9-1.9-1.0-0.7-0.30.00.1Primary balance-0.40.30.31.21.61.71.92.0GGB excl. one-offs-3.1-1.7-1.8-1.0-0.7-0.30.00.1Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)3.04.64.22.31.12.92.4n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)3.08.4n.a.4.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)4.03.83.31.52.02.32.1n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)2.97.6n.a.2.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. mominal 10-year average potential growth (%)12.14.44.44.74.7n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-3.30.3-0.60.90.10.30.50.7Cyclically-adjusted balance2-1.1-2.1-1.6-1.5-0.7-0.5-0.3-0.2One-offs0.3-0.2-0.200000Structural balance3-1.3-1.9-1.4-1.5-0.7-0.5-0.3-0.2Structural primary balance31.10.30.90.71.51.51.71.720222023(% of GDP) 
  
 
 
Table 22.4:  General government debt developments 

Portugal 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 22.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

124 

Average2024202520262016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPSPGross debt ratio1126.2127.4119.9120.8115.3115.4109.8105.9101.9Change in the ratio0.8-7.8-7.5-6.7-4.7-5.3-5.6-3.9-4.1Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.20.4-0.3-0.3-1.2-1.6-1.7-1.9-2.02. “Snow-ball” effect0.7-4.7-7.9-6.4-4.3-4.3-3.1-2.9-2.6Of which:Interest expenditure3.42.42.22.32.22.22.02.01.9Growth effect-0.6-6.2-6.8-6.0-3.0-3.7-2.9-2.7-2.5Inflation effect-2.1-0.9-3.3-2.7-3.5-2.8-2.2-2.1-2.03. Stock-flow adjustment1.3-3.40.90.20.90.7-0.80.90.520222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term3.7HIGH risk2.1MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]-1.4LOW risk-2.5LOW riskCommission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]HIGH riskHIGH riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]100.090.0Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6] 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 22.6:  RRF - Grants 

Portugal 

Source: National authorities. 

125 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.01.31.61.41.10.2Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.911.310.70.82020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.2000.30.30.20.10.0Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000.10.10.10Current transfers D.7000.20.10.10.10TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE000.50.60.40.30.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51g000.50.60.60.50.1Capital transfers D.9000.40.40.40.30.1TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE000.81.00.90.80.12020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 22.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Portugal 

Source: National authorities. 

Table 22.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Source: National authorities. 

126 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU00.20.30.30.20.10Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g000.10.20.10.10Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE000.10.20.10.102020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0010000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Including:Capitalise 2018 - COVID-1912-03-20210.20.1Economy support COVID-1930-03-20202.52.4Specific line COVID-19 – Azores04-06-20200.10.1LAE COVID-19 MPE06-08-20200.40.4Social sector support COVID-1914-09-20200.10.1Economy support COVID-19 – Exporting18-01-20210.10.1LAE COVID-19 – Medium and large tourism companies30-04-20210.10.1'Retomar' line30-09-20210.50.0Pan-European Guarantee Fund (EGF)24-08-20200.10.1Instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE)18-09-20200.20.2Export credit guarantee schemes (under Council of Ministers Resolution No 10-A/2020 – increased limits)13-03-20200.10Export credit guarantee scheme – Short-term for temporarily non-marketable risks  (OECD 2020) 05-06-20200.40.2State guarantee for the insurance of domestic trade credit risks28-04-20210.20.1Subtotal     5.13.8Export Credit Guarantee Schemes0.10Short-term export-credit insurance – non-marketable risk countries01-01-20200.10.1Subtotal 0.20.1Total5.33.9In response to COVID-19Others 
       
 
 
 
  
 
23. ROMANIA 

Table 23.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

Table 23.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  

Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

127 

20242025COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)5.95.92.62.93.64.44.84.5Private consumption (% change)7.97.92.93.13.54.54.74.5Gross fixed capital formation (% change)2.32.34.84.88.18.69.17.1Exports of goods and services (% change)12.512.54.54.45.25.35.54.9Imports of goods and services (% change)14.614.65.05.15.36.56.55.5Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand5.55.53.03.34.35.35.85.1- Change in inventories1.81.80.10.2-0.30-0.2-0.1- Net exports-1.4-1.4-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.9-0.8-0.6Output gap1-2.5-2.7-3.0-3.0-2.7-2.1-1.0-0.3Employment (% change)-8.90.00.80.70.80.91.00.8Unemployment rate (%)5.65.65.55.45.35.24.84.6Labour productivity (% change)16.20.01.72.22.83.53.83.7HICP inflation (%)4.14.18.99.95.15.22.82.5GDP deflator (% change)5.45.49.59.24.95.33.32.9Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.75.78.38.57.08.57.47.1Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-5.4-4.8-5.9-4.7-5.7-4.4-3.9-3.3202120222023202120242025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   0.5-1.0n.a.1.3n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.3-0.3n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.6-1.5n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure00.2n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.20.6n.a.1.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)11.3-0.101.30.80.4n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark1.11.20.80.71.40.3n.a.Change in the structural balance1.5-0.21.01.11.51.0-0.120222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
       
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 23.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Romania 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

128 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPRevenue32.833.634.333.334.735.635.93.1of which:- Taxes on production and imports10.710.711.010.611.111.211.30.6- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.5.15.85.75.65.25.35.30.2- Social contributions11.411.311.311.411.411.411.40- Other (residual)5.65.86.35.77.07.77.92.3RRF grants as included in the revenue projections1.00.81.00.90.90.90.9Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure39.941.140.539.639.138.538.8-1.1of which:- Primary expenditure38.639.638.938.037.637.037.4-1.2of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption17.016.116.215.715.515.214.9-2.1Compensation of employees11.110.210.39.89.89.59.3-1.8Intermediate consumption5.95.95.85.85.75.65.6-0.3Social payments13.212.913.012.512.812.812.7-0.5Subsidies0.61.21.20.70.60.50.5-0.1Gross fixed capital formation4.25.95.26.05.55.66.32.1Other (residual)3.63.43.43.13.33.13.1-0.5- Interest expenditure1.41.51.61.61.51.51.40Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.9n.a.1.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.General government balance (GGB)-7.1-7.5-6.2-6.3-4.4-3.0-2.94.2Primary balance-5.7-6.0-4.7-4.7-2.9-1.5-1.54.2GGB excl. one-offs-7.1-7.5-6.2-6.3-4.4-3.0-2.94.2Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)4.913.012.95.17.98.9n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)7.015.7n.a.5.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)6.08.511.64.74.87.2n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)8.511.4n.a.4.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)19.313.513.58.68.6n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-2.5-3.0-3.0-2.7-2.1-1.0-0.32.4Cyclically-adjusted balance2-6.3-6.5-5.2-5.4-3.7-2.7-2.83.4One-offs00000000Structural balance3-6.3-6.5-5.2-5.4-3.7-2.7-2.83.4Structural primary balance3-4.9-5.0-3.6-3.8-2.2-1.2-1.43.520222023(% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 23.4:  General government debt developments 

Romania 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

Table 23.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 Convergence programme. 

129 

Average202420252016-2020COMCPCOMCPCPCPGross debt ratio137.948.850.949.452.649.749.448.9Change in the ratio1.91.62.00.61.70.3-0.3-0.5Contributions2:1. Primary balance3.15.76.04.74.72.91.51.52. “Snow-ball” effect-1.4-3.4-3.7-3.7-2.4-2.9-2.3-2.0Of which:Interest expenditure1.31.41.51.61.61.51.51.4Growth effect-1.1-2.5-1.1-1.3-1.7-2.0-2.2-2.1Inflation effect-1.6-2.3-4.1-4.0-2.3-2.4-1.5-1.33. Stock-flow adjustment0.3-0.6-0.1-0.3-0.50.40.60.020222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term3.5HIGH risk1.3MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]4.3MEDIUM risk2.4MEDIUM riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]MEDIUM riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]72.752.2Commission scenarioConvergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
   
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 23.6:  RRF - Grants 

Romania 

Source: National authorities. 

130 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.00.80.90.90.91.1Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.00.20.20.20.20.2Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.00.60.70.70.70.92020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
        
 
 
Table 23.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Romania 

Source: National authorities. 

Table 23.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Source: National authorities. 

131 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.000.10.20.20.3Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.00n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.000.60.81.01.32020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Subtotal     0000Subtotal 00Total00In response to COVID-19Others 
        
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
24. SLOVENIA 

Table 24.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 24.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

132 

20242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)8.18.13.74.23.13.02.82.6Private consumption (% change)11.611.64.14.32.51.41.61.8Gross fixed capital formation (% change)12.312.33.86.55.05.05.05.5Exports of goods and services (% change)13.213.24.97.16.05.55.04.2Imports of goods and services (% change)17.417.44.37.25.74.94.64.3Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand9.09.83.03.92.62.22.22.4- Change in inventories0.80.800.200.100- Net exports-1.6-1.60.70.30.50.80.60.1Output gap11.91.92.52.62.32.01.40.4Employment (% change)1.41.40.91.71.51.00.70.4Unemployment rate (%)4.84.84.84.34.64.13.93.8Labour productivity (% change)6.66.62.82.41.61.92.12.1HICP inflation (%)2.01.96.16.43.33.22.32.0GDP deflator (% change)2.62.63.33.63.73.32.32.1Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.45.43.63.65.54.23.84.1Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)4.03.71.302.1000202120222023202120242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -2.0-2.6n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.3-0.2n.a.-0.6n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.5-0.9n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure00n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.2-1.6n.a.0.7n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-1.00.61.40.51.01.71.1Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-0.31.02.91.10.70.81.0Change in the structural balance0.10.61.41.01.01.10.820222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 24.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Slovenia 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

133 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue43.943.043.242.942.842.241.8-2.1of which:- Taxes on production and imports13.213.413.013.212.912.812.5-0.7- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.97.37.77.07.57.47.2-0.7- Social contributions16.816.316.216.216.015.916.2-0.6- Other (residual)6.06.06.36.46.46.15.9-0.1RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.60.50.70.80.60.40.2Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00000000Expenditure49.147.347.246.345.744.343.6-5.5of which:- Primary expenditure47.846.146.045.244.643.242.6-5.2of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption18.717.717.317.216.816.516.1-2.6Compensation of employees12.611.811.511.511.110.910.6-2.0Intermediate consumption6.15.95.85.75.75.75.5-0.6Social payments18.719.118.618.717.918.018.0-0.7Subsidies2.21.01.00.70.90.80.7-1.5Gross fixed capital formation4.75.76.46.36.65.85.60.9Other (residual)3.42.72.72.32.42.12.2-1.2- Interest expenditure1.31.21.21.11.11.11.0-0.3Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.20.40.40.70.80.90.60.4General government balance (GGB)-5.2-4.3-4.1-3.4-3.0-2.1-1.73.5Primary balance-3.9-3.2-2.9-2.3-1.9-1.0-0.73.2GGB excl. one-offs-5.2-4.3-3.5-3.4-2.8-2.0-1.63.6Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)6.44.12.64.14.23.12.2n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)9.211.9n.a.5.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)5.21.8-0.63.13.55.32.4n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)8.310.2n.a.4.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)14.95.95.96.56.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap21.92.52.62.32.01.40.4-1.5Cyclically-adjusted balance2-6.1-5.5-5.3-4.5-3.9-2.7-1.94.2One-offs0.00.0-0.60.0-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1Structural balance3-6.1-5.5-4.7-4.5-3.7-2.6-1.84.3Structural primary balance3-4.8-4.3-3.5-3.4-2.6-1.5-0.84.020222023(% of GDP) 
     
 
 
Table 24.4:  General government debt developments 

Slovenia 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 24.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

134 

Average202420252016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio173.774.774.173.372.771.569.568.0Change in the ratio-0.6-5.1-0.6-1.4-1.4-1.8-2.0-1.5Contributions2:1. Primary balance-0.53.93.22.92.31.91.00.72. “Snow-ball” effect-0.6-6.4-3.7-4.2-3.6-3.2-2.4-2.1Of which:Interest expenditure2.21.31.21.21.11.11.11.0Growth effect-1.7-5.8-2.6-2.9-2.1-2.1-1.9-1.7Inflation effect-1.1-1.8-2.3-2.5-2.6-2.3-1.6-1.43. Stock-flow adjustment0.5-2.40.00.00.0-0.3-0.6-0.120222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term4.6HIGH risk2.3MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]11.1HIGH risk8.9HIGH riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]MEDIUM riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]82.563.2Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.2 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 24.6:  RRF - Grants 

Slovenia 

Source: National authorities. 

135 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.20.50.80.60.40.5Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.40.50.70.50.30.52020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.000000Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.000000Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.000000Interest expenditure D.41n.a.000000Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.00.10.20.10.10.1Current transfers D.7n.a.000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.00.10.20.20.10.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.0.20.30.50.60.40.1Capital transfers D.9n.a.000.10.10.10TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0.20.30.50.60.50.22020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.000000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 24.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Slovenia 

Source: National authorities. 

136 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EUn.a.000.60.10.20.3Repayments of RRF loans to EUn.a.0000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.000000Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.000000Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.000000Interest expenditure D.41n.a.000000Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.000000Current transfers D.7n.a.000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.000.20.30.30.1Capital transfers D.9n.a.00000.10TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.000.20.30.40.12020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.000000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 24.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Slovenia 

Source: National authorities. 

137 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Act Regulating the Guarantee of the Republic of Slovenia in European instrument for temporary support to mitigate unemployment risks in an emergency (SURE) following the COVID-19 outbreak (ZPEIPUTB)  29-05-20200.20.2Act Providing Additional Liquidity to the Economy to Mitigate the Consequences of the COVID-19 Epidemic (ZDLGPE)  28-04-20203.80.1Act Determining the Intervention Measures to Contain the COVID-19 Epidemic and Mitigate its Consequences for Citizens and the Economy (ZIUZEOP) 02-04-20200.40.1Act Regulating the Guarantee of the Republic of Slovenia for Pan-European Guarantee Fund (ZJPGS)03-03-20210.10.1Subtotal     4.50.5Act on State Guarantee for loans procured for financing of the Second railway track Divača – Koper project and for loans procured for financing the the part of the Third Development Axis project (ZPOD2TDK) 18-12-20191.50.2Subtotal 1.50.2Total6.00.8In response to COVID-19Others 
  
 
 
 
 
25. SLOVAKIA 

Table 25.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 25.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  

Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

138 

20242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)3.03.02.32.13.65.31.81.8Private consumption (% change)1.21.21.91.41.92.32.82.1Gross fixed capital formation (% change)0.60.610.815.213.415.1-2.5-0.6Exports of goods and services (% change)10.210.22.91.57.49.04.73.1Imports of goods and services (% change)11.211.23.41.87.68.43.92.3Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand1.23.82.82.33.94.70.90.9- Change in inventories2.62.70.0-0.7000.10- Net exports-0.8-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.40.70.90.9Output gap1-1.1-1.0-0.8-1.300.80.1-0.3Employment (% change)-0.6-0.61.90.60.61.60.60Unemployment rate (%)6.86.96.76.66.35.65.45.2Labour productivity (% change)3.63.60.41.52.93.61.21.7HICP inflation (%)2.82.89.88.16.86.72.02.0GDP deflator (% change)2.42.46.67.45.55.12.42.1Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.95.97.87.17.07.15.04.6Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-1.90.7-3.50.1-2.20.30.60.8202120222023202120242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -1.10.3n.a.-0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds0.1-0.7n.a.-1.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.3-0.4n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.3-0.2n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-1.71.6n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-2.02.5-1.40.1-0.63.3n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-2.24.20.51.40.81.4n.a.Change in the structural balance-1.32.42.10.80.90.40.420222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
Table 25.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Slovakia 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

139 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue40.740.540.240.741.239.139.0-1.7of which:- Taxes on production and imports12.412.111.911.812.011.811.9-0.5- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.47.47.57.47.57.47.40- Social contributions16.115.715.315.514.914.914.9-1.2- Other (residual)4.95.35.56.16.85.04.8-0.1RRF grants as included in the revenue projections1.10.71.30.80.70.50.5Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0000000n.a.Expenditure46.844.245.343.343.641.441.0-5.8of which:- Primary expenditure45.743.144.342.342.740.539.9-5.8of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption17.616.817.416.317.115.515.1-2.5Compensation of employees11.611.110.410.99.59.49.0-2.6Intermediate consumption6.05.77.05.47.66.26.10.1Social payments18.917.817.917.517.017.417.3-1.6Subsidies1.41.21.11.00.80.70.7-0.7Gross fixed capital formation3.24.24.75.14.54.24.21.0Other (residual)4.73.13.32.42.92.72.2-2.5- Interest expenditure1.11.11.01.00.90.91.10Expenditure financed by RRF grants01.10.71.30.80.70.4n.a.General government balance (GGB)-6.2-3.6-5.1-2.6-2.4-2.3-2.04.2Primary balance-5.0-2.6-4.1-1.5-1.5-1.4-1.04.0GGB excl. one-offs-6.2-3.6-4.1-2.6-2.4-2.3-2.04.1Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)9.60.79.64.55.13.1n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)7.46.1n.a.7.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)12.0-1.4-0.14.33.83.7n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)9.34.1n.a.7.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)12.12.02.02.02.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-1.1-0.8-1.30.00.80.1-0.30.8Cyclically-adjusted balance2-5.7-3.3-4.6-2.6-2.7-2.3-1.93.9One-offs00-100000Structural balance3-5.7-3.3-3.6-2.6-2.7-2.3-1.93.9Structural primary balance3-4.6-2.3-2.6-1.5-1.8-1.4-0.83.820222023(% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 25.4:  General government debt developments 

Slovakia 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 25.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

140 

Average202420252016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio152.363.161.761.658.358.058.257.3Change in the ratio1.63.3-1.4-1.5-3.4-3.60.1-0.9Contributions2:1. Primary balance0.95.02.64.11.51.51.41.02. “Snow-ball” effect0-1.9-4.1-4.5-4.1-4.9-1.4-1.1Of which:Interest expenditure1.41.11.11.01.00.90.91.1Growth effect-0.7-1.7-1.3-1.2-2.0-2.9-1.0-1.0Inflation effect-0.7-1.4-3.8-4.2-3.1-2.9-1.3-1.23. Stock-flow adjustment0.70.30.2-1.0-0.70.00.2-0.720222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term1.8MEDIUM risk1.5MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]9.6HIGH risk9.2HIGH riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]MEDIUM riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]61.057.3Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.2 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]HIGH risk 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 25.6:  RRF - Grants 

Slovakia 

Source: National authorities. 

141 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.00.70.80.70.5n.a.Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.811.31.20.8n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.n.a.0000n.a.Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.n.a.0.10.10.10.1n.a.Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.n.a.0000n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.n.a.0000n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.n.a.0000n.a.Current transfers D.7n.a.n.a.0000n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.n.a.0.10.10.20.1n.a.Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.n.a.0.60.70.50.3n.a.Capital transfers D.9n.a.n.a.0000n.a.TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.n.a.0.60.70.50.3n.a.2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.0000n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.0000n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.0000n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 25.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Slovakia 

Source: National authorities. 

Table 25.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Source: National authorities. 

142 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0000000Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)COVID-19 bank guarantees (as of January 2022)avr-202.10.9Subtotal     2.10.9EFSF2.40ESM6.30International financial institutions1.30Subtotal 10.00.2Total12.11.1In response to COVID-19Others 
       
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
26. FINLAND 

Table 26.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 26.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

143 

20242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)3.53.51.61.51.71.71.51.3Private consumption (% change)3.13.12.12.01.71.71.51.5Gross fixed capital formation (% change)1.21.22.12.23.02.92.04.4Exports of goods and services (% change)4.74.72.12.04.34.45.14.2Imports of goods and services (% change)5.35.32.92.63.73.74.25.5Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand2.72.71.92.11.41.41.21.8- Change in inventories0.81.00-0.300-0.10.1- Net exports-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.30.30.30.4-0.6Output gap1-1.0-1.0-0.8-0.9-0.5-0.6-0.20Employment (% change)2.02.41.01.00.40.80.50.3Unemployment rate (%)7.77.77.27.26.96.86.66.5Labour productivity (% change)1.41.10.60.51.20.91.00.9HICP inflation (%)2.12.14.54.22.32.31.81.9GDP deflator (% change)2.72.73.83.42.32.21.81.8Comp. of employees (per head, % change)4.43.73.33.03.02.72.52.6Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)0.80.80.300.50.20.40202120222023202120242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   0.5-0.6n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds0.0-0.2n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.6-0.2n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.1-0.3n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.10.1n.a.0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)11.60.80.80.50.30.6-0.2Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark0.91.31.20.80.60.50.1Change in the structural balance1.70.30.30.30.30.1-0.520222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Table 26.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Finland 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

144 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue52.451.751.951.752.051.551.3-1.1of which:- Taxes on production and imports13.813.513.613.313.413.113.0-0.8- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.16.616.216.316.116.116.116.1-0.5- Social contributions12.111.911.912.012.011.911.9-0.2- Other (residual)10.010.010.110.410.510.410.30.3RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.20.20.20.20.20.10.1Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0000000n.a.Expenditure54.953.954.153.453.653.053.1-1.8of which:- Primary expenditure54.553.453.652.953.152.552.7-1.8of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption23.723.523.723.523.623.223.0-0.7Compensation of employees12.612.412.512.312.412.212.1-0.5Intermediate consumption11.211.111.211.211.211.010.9-0.3Social payments21.721.121.221.021.121.121.0-0.7Subsidies1.61.21.21.01.01.01.0-0.6Gross fixed capital formation4.14.44.44.54.64.44.90.8Other (residual)3.33.23.22.92.92.72.7-0.6- Interest expenditure0.50.50.50.50.50.50.4-0.1Expenditure financed by RRF grants00.20.40.20.20.20.10.1General government balance (GGB)-2.6-2.2-2.2-1.7-1.7-1.4-1.80.8Primary balance-2.1-1.7-1.7-1.2-1.2-1.0-1.30.8GGB excl. one-offs-2.6-2.2-2.2-1.7-1.7-1.4-1.80.8Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)1.03.03.12.22.92.33.5n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)2.95.8n.a.2.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)1.22.42.82.12.62.72.4n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.04.8n.a.2.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)13.95.05.03.53.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-1.0-0.8-0.9-0.5-0.6-0.20.01.0Cyclically-adjusted balance2-2.0-1.7-1.7-1.4-1.4-1.3-1.80.2One-offs00000000Structural balance3-2.0-1.7-1.7-1.4-1.4-1.3-1.80.2Structural primary balance3-1.5-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.9-0.8-1.40.120222023(% of GDP) 
     
 
 
Table 26.4:  General government debt developments 

Finland 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP). 

Table 26.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 stability programme. 

145 

Average202420252016-2020COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio162.565.865.966.266.666.968.069.1Change in the ratio1.1-3.20.10.40.70.71.11.1Contributions2:1. Primary balance1.02.11.71.71.21.21.01.32. “Snow-ball” effect-0.6-3.5-2.9-2.5-2.0-2.0-1.7-1.5Of which:Interest expenditure0.90.50.50.50.50.50.50.4Growth effect-0.7-2.3-1.0-0.9-1.1-1.1-1.0-0.9Inflation effect-0.7-1.8-2.3-2.1-1.4-1.4-1.1-1.23. Stock-flow adjustment0.6-1.71.31.31.51.51.81.320222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term0.0MEDIUM risk0.6MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]3.1MEDIUM risk3.5MEDIUM riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]62.568.2Commission scenarioStability programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.2 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 26.6:  RRF - Grants 

Finland 

Source: National authorities. 

146 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.00.20.20.20.10Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.0.10.10.20.10.10.12020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.00.10000Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.00.10000Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Interest expenditure D.41n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.000000Current transfers D.7n.a.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.00.20.20.20.10Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.00.10000Capital transfers D.9n.a.00.10000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.00.10.10002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.00000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.00000Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 26.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Finland 

Source: National authorities. 

147 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0000000Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 26.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Finland 

Source: National authorities. 

148 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Increase in Finnvera's domestic guarantee limit to 12 billion eurosn.a.4.70.8Guarantee to Finnair's loan from employment pension institutionsn.a.0.20.2Guarantee to shipping companies to secure vital suppliesn.a.0.20.1Guarantee to secure financing of Employment Fundn.a.0.30European Commision's SURE programn.a.0.20.2EIB's COVID19-guarantee fundn.a.0.10.1Guarantees relating to vaccinesn.a.0.10Subtotal     6.01.4Other central government guaranteesn.a.023.7Subtotal 023.7Total6.025.1In response to COVID-19Others 
  
 
 
 
 
27. SWEDEN 

Table 27.1:  Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

(1) In % of potential GDP, recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly 
agreed methodology. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

Table 27.2:  Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

(1) A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term 
economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

149 

20242025COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)4.84.82.33.11.41.61.61.7Private consumption (% change)5.85.83.23.81.52.82.33.2Gross fixed capital formation (% change)6.16.12.03.42.51.31.81.5Exports of goods and services (% change)7.57.54.14.83.12.62.92.3Imports of goods and services (% change)9.49.44.55.51.82.42.82.4Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand4.84.82.12.90.61.41.41.6- Change in inventories0.40.40.10.20.1000- Net exports-0.4-0.40.0-0.10.70.20.20.1Output gap1-1.4-1.7-0.8-0.5-1.2-0.6-0.6-0.5Employment (% change)1.31.32.11.80.91.00.40.6Unemployment rate (%)8.88.87.87.67.07.07.07.0Labour productivity (% change)3.53.60.11.30.50.51.21.1HICP inflation (%)2.72.75.34.63.01.51.81.8GDP deflator (% change)3.03.04.33.53.91.91.81.9Comp. of employees (per head, % change)4.34.82.7-2.13.73.62.92.9Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)5.65.65.04.65.94.95.15.0202120222023202120242025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   0.1-0.6n.a.1.3n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.1-0.2n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.10.0n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.10.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.2-0.4n.a.1.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)11.00.50.22.43.01.61.6Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark1.10.80.62.33.11.81.6Change in the structural balance0.9-0.5-0.91.21.20.10.520222023(% of GDP) 
 
 
      
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
Table 27.3:  Composition of the budgetary adjustment 

Sweden 

(1) This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can 
boost economic growth. 
(2) Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by 
Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology. 
(3) Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs. 
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

150 

202120242025Change: 2021-2025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPRevenue50.048.749.147.748.948.548.3-1.7of which:- Taxes on production and imports21.921.821.621.721.922.022.00.1- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.18.417.917.717.717.717.617.4-1.0- Social contributions3.43.03.32.93.33.33.3-0.1- Other (residual)6.35.96.55.56.05.65.6-0.7RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.30.20.10.10.10-0.2Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants00000000Expenditure50.249.149.647.248.247.746.9-3.3of which:- Primary expenditure50.049.049.347.047.947.446.5-3.5of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption20.719.920.318.919.919.619.2-1.5Compensation of employees12.712.012.411.812.212.011.7-1.0Intermediate consumption8.07.97.97.17.77.67.5-0.5Social payments15.815.515.415.315.115.014.8-1.0Subsidies2.22.11.81.91.61.61.5-0.7Gross fixed capital formation4.84.84.84.84.84.95.00.2Other (residual)6.56.77.06.16.46.26.1-0.4- Interest expenditure0.20.10.30.20.30.30.40.2Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.20.20.20.10.200-0.2General government balance (GGB)-0.2-0.5-0.50.50.70.81.41.6Primary balance0.0-0.3-0.20.71.01.21.81.8GGB excl. one-offs-0.2-0.5-0.50.50.70.81.41.6Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)2.65.05.80.7-0.52.51.6n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.67.4n.a.3.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)2.84.92.40.30.31.91.1n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.67.5n.a.3.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)15.06.36.35.95.9n.a.n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-1.4-0.8-0.5-1.2-0.6-0.6-0.51.1Cyclically-adjusted balance20.50-0.21.21.01.21.71.0One-offs00000000Structural balance30.50-0.21.21.01.21.71.0Structural primary balance30.80.10.11.31.31.52.11.220222023(% of GDP) 
      
 
 
Table 27.4:  General government debt developments 

Sweden 

(1) The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP 
growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and 
accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation 
and other residual effects.  
Source: Commission 2022 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP). 

Table 27.5:  Debt sustainability analysis results and fiscal sustainability indicators 

(1) The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* 
(2) The S1 indicator measures the effort required to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 % in 15 years. It corresponds to a 
cumulated improvement in the structural primary balance over  5 years compared with the baseline. Below 0: low risk. Between 0 
and 2.5: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
(3) The debt sustainability analysis is performed around the Commission's baseline scenario to test the response to different 
shocks, including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* 
(4) The Commission scenario assumes a gradual reversal of temporary pandemic-related measures (and ‘financing’ of permanent 
ones).* The stability or convergence programme scenario assumes that the budgetary plans in the programmes are fully 
implemented over the period covered by the programmes. 
(5) The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis. 
(6) The S2 indicator shows the upfront and permanent fiscal adjustment required to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the 
infinite horizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.* 
* For more information, see the 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Monitor. 
Source: Commission services; 2022 Convergence programme. 

151 

Average202420252016-2020COMCPCOMCPCPCPGross debt ratio139.336.733.833.530.530.728.926.4Change in the ratio-0.8-3.0-2.9-3.2-3.2-2.8-1.8-2.5Contributions2:1. Primary balance-0.70.00.30.2-0.7-1.0-1.2-1.82. “Snow-ball” effect-0.9-2.6-2.1-2.0-1.5-0.8-0.6-0.6Of which:Interest expenditure0.40.20.10.30.20.30.30.4Growth effect-0.5-1.8-0.8-1.1-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5Inflation effect-0.8-1.1-1.5-1.2-1.3-0.6-0.5-0.53. Stock-flow adjustment0.7-0.3-1.1-1.4-1.0-1.00-0.120222023(% of GDP)2021Time horizonShort termMedium term-5.7LOW risk-6.6LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]0.9LOW risk0.2LOW riskLong-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2032 (%) [4]10.57.8Commission scenarioConvergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3 risk riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
Table 27.6:  RRF - Grants 

Sweden 

Source: National authorities. 

152 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.20.20.10.100Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EUn.a.00.20.10.200.12020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1n.a.000000Intermediate consumption P.2n.a.000000Social payments D.62+D.632n.a.000000Interest expenditure D.41n.a.000000Subsidies, payable D.3n.a.000000Current transfers D.7n.a.0.100000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREn.a.0.10.10.1000Gross fixed capital formation P.51gn.a.000000Capital transfers D.9n.a.0.10.10.1000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITUREn.a.0.10.10.10002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.000000Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.000000Financial transactionsn.a.000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
       
 
 
Table 27.7:  RRF - LOANS 

Sweden 

Source: National authorities. 

Table 27.8:  Guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme 

Source: National authorities. 

153 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0000000Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Other costs with impact on revenuen.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Financial transactionsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Credit guarantees for businessesFebruary 20211.00Subtotal     1.0000Subtotal 1.00Total2.00In response to COVID-19Others