COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT IMPLEMENTING THE REPOWER EU ACTION PLAN: INVESTMENT NEEDS, HYDROGEN ACCELERATOR AND ACHIEVING THE BIO-METHANE TARGETS Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS REPowerEU Plan
Date: 2022-05-18
Institutions: European Commission, Secretariat-General
Subjects: EU energy policy, economic recovery, energy cooperation, energy diversification, energy saving, energy supply, energy transition, investment, security of supply, self-sufficiency in energy

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 18.5.2022  SWD(2022) 230 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT IMPLEMENTING THE REPOWER EU ACTION PLAN: INVESTMENT NEEDS, HYDROGEN ACCELERATOR AND ACHIEVING THE BIO-METHANE TARGETS      Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS REPowerEU Plan {COM(2022) 230 final}  
 
 
 
 
 
Table of contents  

1. 

2. 

INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................. 2 

INVESTMENT NEEDS ....................................................................................................................... 4 

1. 
Reduction of gas demand and investments by technology ................................4 
Drivers of natural gas demand reduction in RePowerEU ................................10 
2. 
3.  Why should the potential for natural gas reduction be higher than 155 bcm? 11 
A Changing Energy System .............................................................................12 
4. 
Preparing  for  the  next  winter  by  Short-Term  and  Behavioural  measures  Energy 
5. 
System ..............................................................................................................14 
Costs and benefits ............................................................................................15 
6. 
Overall investment needs .................................................................................15 
7. 
Infrastructure Needs and Bottlenecks ..............................................................17 
8. 
9. 
Industry ............................................................................................................19 
10.  Skills, social, employment ...............................................................................21 

3. 

RENEWABLES AND ENERGY EFFIENCY FOR REPOWEREU ................................................. 22 

1. 
2. 

Renewables ......................................................................................................22 
Energy Efficiency ............................................................................................24 

4.  HYDROGEN ACCELERATOR ........................................................................................................ 26 

1. 

2. 
3. 

4. 

Scaling  up  the  production  and  import  of  renewable  hydrogen  to  20  Mt  by  2030
 ..........................................................................................................................26 
Scaling up the development of hydrogen infrastructure in the EU ..................30 
Stepping  up  our  international  engagement  on  hydrogen  to  scale  up  renewable 
hydrogen imports .............................................................................................31 
Conclusions: .....................................................................................................33 

5.  ACHIEVING THE BIOMETHANE TARGETS ................................................................................ 34 

6. 

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES ................................................................................................... 47 

7.  ANNEX ON PRICE TRAJECTORIES BETWEEN 2020 AND 2050 FOR GAS, OIL AND COAL 48 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
1. 

INTRODUCTION 

Achieving the objectives of the REPowerEU communication1 to reduce the dependence of Russian 
fossil fuels will require on the one hand, reducing faster our dependence on fossil fuels, and, on the 
other  hand,  diversifying  gas  supplies.  Both  efforts  imply  investments  including  to  boost  energy 
efficiency gains, increase the share of renewables, address infrastructure bottlenecks, increase LNG 
imports and pipeline imports from non-Russian suppliers and increase the level of renewable hydrogen 
and bio-methane.  

This Staff Working Document provides an estimate of the investment needs and additional costs of 
reducing the fossil fuel dependence from Russia to zero by 2027, with specific focus on natural gas 
use. The decoupling between the EU and fossil fuel imports from Russia has already started and will 
pass through different stages, affecting the demand and the supply side. Taking into account the above 
elements, the analysis indicates that implementing the full potential to reduce the dependence to zero 
(310 bcm) would require €300bn2 cumulative from now until 2030 – beyond the Fit-for-55 proposals3. 
By the end of 2027, this transition corresponds to  approximately €210bn investments (and 235 bcm). 
These REPowerEU investments correspond to about 5% of the total Fit-for-55 investments until 2030, 
and come on top of them. The Commission analysis estimates that with the Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU 
measures  combined,  the  EU  can  save  €80  bn  on  gas  import  expenditures,  €12  bn  on  oil  import 
expenditures and €1.7 bn on coal import expenditures per year.   

Full implementation of our Fit-for-55 proposals would lower our gas consumption by 30%, equivalent 
to  116  billion  cubic  meters  (bcm),  by  2030.  Together  with  additional  gas  diversification  and 
accelerated gas decarbonisation, frontloaded energy savings and electrification have the potential to 
jointly deliver at least the equivalent of the 155 bcm imports of Russian gas by 2027. 

This  SWD  explores  notably  how  the  higher  renewables  (45%)  and  energy  efficiency  (-13%  final 
energy consumption) levels contribute to the objectives of the RePowerEU. 

Achieving the objectives of REPowerEU relies notably on scaling up renewable hydrogen and bio-
methane and provide a crucial contribution to the effort of reducing the dependence of Russian gas. 
Therefore,  this  Staff  Working  Document  also  explores  how  the  development  of  hydrogen  can  be 
accelerated and the bio-methane targets achieved.  

The scaling up of the deployment of renewable hydrogen will reduce our dependence of natural gas, 
coal and oil imports from Russia, and will help to accelerate the EU energy transition. Therefore, the 
REPowerEU  communication  of  8  March  included  the  Hydrogen  Accelerator  with  the  ambition  of 
using 20 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen in 2030 in the EU.  

1 COM(2022) 108 final 
2 All monetary values are in EUR 2022 with HICP index (March 2022) being 115.88 (compared to 2015). 
3 The additional investments beyond the Fit-for-55 proposals reflect both the impact of the REPowerEU measures and 
that of the higher (see Annex 1) fossil fuels price context. The analysis excludes: 

  Transport.  
  The possibility to increase intra-EU sources of fossil fuels (e.g Groningen in the Netherlands).  
  The investments and infrastructure needed outside of the EU (e.g. LNG terminals or tankers outside the EU 

removing bottlencks to increase supply from Third Countries). 

2 

 
 
                                                           
This Staff Working Document further develops the Hydrogen Accelerator by identifying activities to 
support the implementation of these accelerated ambitions. It describes in which priority sectors the 
increased amount of renewable hydrogen can be used and what measures would enable this uptake, 
identifies  possible  activities  and  support  for  the  rapid  development  of  the  needed  hydrogen 
infrastructure, including pipelines, storages and terminal facilities and sets out how the EU could step 
up its international engagement and coordinate its actions to facilitate the import of 10 million tonnes 
of renewable hydrogen, while ensuring respect for the EU’s international trade obligations. 

In order to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, the European Union also needs to boost biomethane 
production to 35 bcm by 2030. This Staff Working Document presents a number of possible actions 
to achieve this ambitious target. The actions cover four key areas and could unlock the full biogas and 
bio-methane potential that exists across all EU Member States.  

The proposed measures would not only facilitate the increase in production of biogas but would also 
boost its subsequent conversion into bio-methane, respecting strict environmental criteria agreed in the 
REDII. Recognising existing barriers to entry, the actions also target the facilitation of biomethane 
integration into the EU internal gas market. Further co-ordination of support to biogas and bio-methane 
at the EU, national and regional levels is needed if we collectively want to achieve the 35bcm target. 
Challenges  also  include  improving  infrastructure  deployment,  improving  access  to  finance,  and 
supporting research, development and innovation. 

3 

 
 
 
 
2. 

INVESTMENT NEEDS 

1. 

Reduction of gas demand and investments by technology 

Achieving  the  objectives  of  the  REPowerEU  communication  to  reduce  the  dependence  of  Russian 
fossil fuels will require significant investments to: 

  Reduce  faster  our  dependence  on  fossil  fuels  at  the  level  of  homes,  buildings,  transport, 
industry  and the power  system by boosting  energy  efficiency  gains,  increasing  the share of 
renewables and addressing infrastructure bottlenecks. 

  Diversify  gas  supplies,  via  higher  LNG  imports  and  pipeline  imports  from  non-Russian 
suppliers, and higher levels of bio-methane (domestically produced) and renewable hydrogen 
(domestically produced and imported).  

Full implementation of our Fit-for-55 proposals would lower our gas consumption by 30%, equivalent 
to  116  bcm,  by  2030.  Together  with  additional  gas  diversification  and  more  renewable  gases, 
frontloaded  energy  savings  and  electrification  have  the  potential  to  jointly  deliver  at  least  the 
equivalent of the 155 bcm imports of Russian gas by 2027.  

For  the  purpose  of  this  analysis,  fossil  fuels  considered  are  coal,  oil  and  refined  petroleum 
products (e.g. diesel) and, in particular, natural gas. 

The analysis considered 3 dimensions for the menu of options: 

1-  How fast can these measures be deployed?  
2-  How cost-efficient  are these measures (contribution to reducing the dependency, number of 

bcm saved in the case of gas)? 

3-  How green? The measures should not lead to stranded assets and should be future-proof, to the 

extent possible. 

Several policy actions can be considered both from the supply and demand side: 

 

In the short-term  

o  Diversification of gas pipeline routes (incl. higher load factor of existing pipelines) 
o  Limited additional LNG under current infrastructure or floating storage regasification 

units (e.g. import terminals and pipeline network) 

o  Demand-side behavioural measures 
o  Energy efficiency investments (including heat pumps) 
o  Industry gas prioritisation (emergency measure) 
o  Price-driven fuel switch  

 

In the medium-term: 

o  Further  energy  efficiency  investments  and  innovation  (including  heat  pumps, 

retrofitting and energy efficient industrial processes) 

o  Development of bio-methane production and infrastructure 

4 

 
 
 
o  Additional  photovoltaic  (PV),  on-shore  and  off-shore  wind  deployment  and  enegy 

system integration 

o  Additional investment in the power grid and storage 
o  Limited  new  LNG  and  gas  pipeline  infrastructure  and  adapting  the  existing  gas 

networks to bio-methane and renewable hydrogen 

In the longer term 

o  Development of renewable hydrogen production and hydrogen infrastructure 

The  analysis  looks  at  the  investments  needed  to  build  a  structurally  new  energy  system  that  is 
independent from Russia as a fossil fuel producer. Taking into account the above elements, the up-
front additional investment needs, complementing the Fit-for-55 package, to reduce the dependence to 
zero would amount to €300bn from now until 2030 (or, approximately €210bn by the end of 2027).   

Table 1 below focuses on a gradual decoupling from Russian gas and assesses the options for additional 
gas demand reduction and associated investment needs compared to the Fit-for-55 scenario. It is based 
on  comparing  results  of  modelling  scenarios  of  REPowerEU  and  implementation  of  the  Fit-for-55 
package  using  the  PRIMES  model4.  The  investments  listed  in  the  table  below  cover  notably  the 
implementation  of  all  the  measures  in  the  REPowerEU  Communication  and  the  specific  needs  for 
gradual gas decoupling from Russia by 2027, new LNG infrastructure and gas pipeline corridors, and 
production,  transmission  and  demand  sides  of  the  transition  outlined  in  the  REPowerEU 
Communication including energy efficiency, renewables, heat pumps, renewable hydrogen including 
electrolysers, biomethane. Those investments do not cover the impacts of sanctions, oil savings, oil 
production or demand measures, curtailment of oil,  natural gas or coal, nor investments in existing 
infrastructures related to the diversification of gas supply. As the focus of the analysis is on gas, Table 
1 does not include transport, and investments in transport are similar in REPowerEU and Fit-for-55 
projections.  

4 The additional investments beyond the Fit-for-55 proposals reflect both the impact of the REPowerEU measures and that 
of the higher fossil fuels prices. 

5 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Table 1: Potential measures and investments to reduce dependence on Russian gas by technology, 
in addition to the Fit-for-55 package 

Timing 

Measure 

bcm 
(in 
2030) 

€ bn 
invest-
ments 
(2022-
2030) 

Justification/ 
explanation of the bcm 
figure 

Eligibility under 
EU financial 
programmes 

Total of all Fit-
for-55 measures 

116 

Ff55 
savings 
by 2030 

Short-
term 
prepared
-ness 

50 

10 

- 

24 

2 

Fit-for-55 modelling 
estimates 30% natural 
gas savings 

RePowerEU 
Communication 
COM(2022) 108 final 

In 2030, long term 
contracts account for 
about 110 bcm (of which 
about 55 bcm are take-
or-pay contracts) 
Using existing capacity.  
The investment refers to 
CAPEX. The fuel cost 
(coal) is not included 
(OPEX). The total 
expenditure of the switch 
from gas to coal is the 
sum of CAPEX and 
OPEX. 

7 

9 

(10) 

- 

-5 

Recent political 
decisions in BE and FR  

Fuel switch driven by 
price changes 

Measure 9 of the IEA 
plan on gas in the EU 
(gas saving counted 
under energy efficiency) 

Emergency measure 

- 

- 

Diversification 
(additional 
LNG using 
existing 
infrastructure) 
Diversification 
of pipeline 
imports using 
existing 
infrastructure 

Delayed phase-
out and more 
operating hours 
for coal 

Abandoned 
phase-out 
nuclear plants 
Fuel switch in 
the residential 
and service 
sectors  
EU Save: 
Demand 
measures 
(behaviour) 
EU Save: 
Industry 
curtailment 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

5 Investments for nuclear long term operation are included in investments for other power technologies and infrastructure. 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Timing 

Measure 

bcm 
(in 
2030) 

€ bn 
invest-
ments 
(2022-
2030) 

Justification/ 
explanation of the bcm 
figure 

Eligibility under 
EU financial 
programmes 

New LNG 
infrastructure 
and pipeline 
corridors 

- 

10 

Mid-term 
(until 
2027) 

These infrastructure and 
pipelines facilitate the 
full effect of the 
diversification. 
Compared to average EU 
LNG imports of 7 
bcm/month (in 2019-21), 
the EU system could 
absorb an additional 3.8 
bcm/month (45.6 
bcm/year) of LNG if 
bottlenecks are removed. 
However, there are 
currently only 8 to 10 
available Floating 
Storage Regassification 
Units LNG terminals in 
the world.6 

Modernisation 
Fund7, RRF8, 
CEF9, ERDF and 
CF, for projects 
on the 5th PCI list 

Additional 
investments in 
the power grid 
and storage 

Biomass in 
power 
generation 

- 

39 

The storage is about 
10bn. 

1 

2 

In line with the 
sustainability criteria of 
the Renewable Energy 
Directive. 

CEF, InvestEU10, 
HE11, ERDF12, 
CF13, JTF14, RRF, 
ETF Funds15 
HE, InvestEU, 
LIFE, ERDF, CF, 
JTF, RRF, ETS 
Funds, RES EU 
FM, EAFRD16 

6 As an example, the Wilhelmshaven LNG Import Terminal, scheduled to enter service by 2023 once completed could 
deal with 10bcm of additional gas per year. The cost of the project is around €672m. 
7 Natural gas transmission (and distribution as well as gas-fired energy generation) are capped at a maximum of 30% of 
the overall Modernisation Fund allocation. 
8 Recovery and Resilience Facility 
9 Connecting Europe Facility 
10 InvestEU Programme 
11 Horizon Europe 
12 European Regional Development Fund 
13 Cohesion Fund 
14 Just Transition Fund 
15 Refers to two funds established under the ETS Directive: the Innovation Fund and the Modernisation Fund. The 
Modernisation Fund is available to 10 Member States: BG, HR, CZ, EE, HU, LV, LT, PL, RO, SK 
16 European Agricultural fund for Rural Development 

7 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
 
Timing 

Measure 

Energy 
Efficiency and 
Heat Pumps 

bcm 
(in 
2030) 

€ bn 
invest-
ments 
(2022-
2030) 

37 

56 

PV and wind 

(21 
bcm 
See 
justific
ation) 

86 

Sustainable bio-
methane 

17 

37 

Reduced use in 
industry 

12 

41 

Justification/ 
explanation of the bcm 
figure 

Eligibility under 
EU financial 
programmes 

Incl. Energy efficiency in 
buildings; 
Lower final electricity 
demand; 
In the scenario, about 12 
bcm is achieved trough 
almost 4Mt of additional 
domestic hydrogen 
production and 9 bcm 
through additional 
substitution of gs in the 
power system. These 
bcm savings are 
distributed across the 
other sectors in the table. 
Increased use in 
households, industry and 
agriculture. The total 
(with Fit for 55) adds up 
to 35 bcm in 2030.  
Incl. Electrification, 
energy efficiency, and 
fuel substitution (incl. 
hydrogen); 
Excl. the cost of 
production of hydrogen 
and biogas/bio-methane; 
Excl. refineries.  

HE17, InvestEU, 
LIFE, ERDF, CF, 
JTF, RRF, ETS 
Funds 

HE, InvestEU, 
CEF18, LIFE, 
ERDF, CF, JTF, 
RRF, ETS Funds, 
RES EU FM19 

InvestEU, 
ERDF20, CF21, 
JTF22, CEF23, 
ETS Funds24, 
EAFRD 

HE, ETS Funds, 
InvestEU, ERDF, 
CF, RRF 

Long-
term 
needs 
(by 2027 
& 
beyond) 

Renewable 
hydrogen 

27 
(domes
tic and 
import) 

27 

€27 bn is direct 
investment in 
electrolysers and 
distribution of hydrogen 
in the EU. 

CEF, InvestEU, 
HE, ETS Funds, 
RRF, ERDF, CF, 
JTF25 

17 Horizon Europe  
18 Here, eligibility would be possible under CEF-Energy cross-border RES envelope 
19 RES EU financing mechanism 
20 European Regional Development Fund 
21 Cohesion Fund 
22 Just Transition Fund 
23 Connecting Europe Facility 
24 Refers to two funds established under the ETS Directive: the Innovation Fund and the Modernisation Fund. The 
Modernisation Fund is available to 10 Member States : BG, HR, CZ, EE, HU, LV, LT, PL, RO, SK 
25 Concerning the ERDF, Cohesion Fund, JTF the eligibility refers to RES hydrogen – under “promoting renewable 
energy in accordance with Directive (EU) 2018/2001”  according to Regulation (EU) 2021/1058 on the ERDF/CF 

8 

 
 
 
                                                           
Timing 

Measure 

bcm 
(in 
2030) 

€ bn 
invest-
ments 
(2022-
2030) 

Justification/ 
explanation of the bcm 
figure 

Eligibility under 
EU financial 
programmes 

(excludes the investment 
of solar and wind 
electricity needed to 
produce green hydrogen; 
and excluding the 
investments needed for 
the imported renewable 
hydrogen ) 
About 6.6 Mt is 
produced domestically 
and included in the Fit-
for-55 scenario.  
RePowerEU increases 
the domestic production 
by 3.4 Mt while 6 Mt of 
renewable hydrogen and 
approximately 4 Mt of 
ammonia are imported. 
Out of the approximately 
additional 10 Mt 
hydrogen, 8 Mt replace 
27 bcm of gas, whereas 
the remaining 2 Mt 
replace oil and coal. 

Total 

310 

300 

Note: bcm figures in brackets are provided for information but not included in the total.  

9 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2. 

Drivers of natural gas demand reduction in RePowerEU 

The March REPowerEU Communication states that the full implementation of our Fit for 55 proposals 
would lower our gas consumption by 30%, equivalent to 116 bcm, by 2030. The higher long-term 
gas and oil price paths reduce the natural gas demand further by about 40 bcm until 2030, whereas the 
implementation of the RePowerEU measures completes it with almost an additional 100 bcm reduction 
by 2030. 

Together  with  additional  gas  diversification  and  renewable  gases,  frontloaded  energy  savings  and 
electrification have the potential to jointly deliver at least the equivalent of the 155 bcm imports of 
Russian gas by 2027.  

While there is currently some shift from gas to coal and oil, under the Fit-for-55 proposal, demand for 
oil and coal  is  projected to  decrease by  28% and  50% respectively between 2019 and 2030 Under 
REPowerEU, demand for coal  is  projected to decrease by  36%  (2030 vs 2020). Demand for oil  is 
comparable  in  2030  to  the  Fit-for-55  projections  (since  the  focus  of  the  analysis  is  on  gas).  The 
reduction in coal demand is sufficient to fully replace Russian coal imports by 2027.  

Three main drivers will change the energy system beyond the Fit-for-55 proposals: 

1.  The decoupling  from  Russian gas imports, leading to  the need for alternative suppliers and 

entry points into the EU, alternative intra-EU pipeline routes and other infrastructure;  

2.  The REPowerEU plan further increases the ambition level beyond the Fit-for-55 Package for 
gas alternatives (bio-methane, renewable hydrogen), deployment of renewables, and structural 
demand measures such as energy efficiency; 

o  The renewables reach a 45% share in 203026; 
o  Energy efficiency reaches a 13% share in 2030; 
o  Bio-methane production reaches 35 bcm in 2030; 
o  Renewable hydrogen use27 reaches 20 Mt by 2030 (of which about 4 Mt as ammonia); 
o  Respecting the at least -55% GHG objective of the Fit-for-55 package is achieved. 

3.  Prices  are  expected  to  be  persistently  higher  than  the  reference  (albeit  lower  than  the  peak 
prices  observed  in  2021  and  2022).  Experts  expect  that  the  current  events  will  temporarily 
fragment oil and coal markets resulting in higher prices, while these markets will rebalance in 
the medium term. The fuel price trajectories used in the REPowerEU and Fit-for-55 scenarios 
are provided in Figure 1 in Annex A. 

26 Using the definition in RED III. 
27 Including the use of e-fuels derived from hydrogen. 

10 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
3.  Why should the potential for natural gas reduction be higher than 155 bcm? 

The  combined  effect  of  the  Fit-for-55  proposals,  the  measures  announced  in  the  March 
Communication, a higher price trajectory for natural gas, and  the LNG and pipeline diversification 
have  the  potential  to  lead  to  a  cumulative  demand  reduction  of  310  bcm  of  natural  gas  by  2030 
compared  to  2020.  By  2027,  this  corresponds  to  235  bcm  (including  60  bcm  of  diversification 
measures).28 
REPowerEU aims at improving the energy security in the EU, while respecting cost-efficiency and the 
decarbonisation pathway. Therefore, it is in the interest of the EU to have a broad range of options to 
allow  for  sufficient  flexibility  and  prepare  for  other  unforeseen  events,  rather  than  a  very  narrow 
transition path. 

1.  The  objective  should  go  beyond  155  bcm,  which  is  a  snap-shot  of  the  Russian  natural  gas 
imports in 2021. In various recent years, the Russion imports have been significantly higher 
(e.g. 195 bcm in 201929). Further, the domestic natural gas production continues to decrease by 
several bcm every year in the EU (and its neighbourhood). And, while still helping the general 
EU energy security, not all reduction in natural gas consumption will directly translate into less 
imports from Russia (e.g. in the western part of the EU). 

2.  Another uncertainty are the price trajectories of natural gas and the other fossil fuels. Higher 
than usual gas prices as in the price trajectory of Figure 1 drive about 40 bcm out of the EU 
energy system by 2030 (e.g. by switching to coal). While lower gas prices would be beneficial 
for  the  EU  economy,  the  price  incentive  to  use  less  gas  would  evaporate,  possibly 
compromising the decoupling from Russia, and putting the energy security of the EU at risk in 
the longer term.    

3.  The REPowerEU measures combined with the Fit-for-55 proposals rely heavily on a quick and 
ambitious deployment of fossil-free technologies. Various bottlenecks may put this deployment 
and the energy security objectives at risk, such as the dependence on rare earths, supply chain 
constraints,  skilled labour shortages  and financing.  In particular,  renewable hydrogen  needs 
new production capacity and dedicated transport infrastructure; and may only start to contribute 
significantly after 2027. Nevertheless, renewable hydrogen projects serve both the long-term 
EU energy security and the decarbonisation pathway. The project lead times justify starting 
initiatives early on in order to be ready for the next stage of the decarbonisation pathway and 
any future energy security challenges30.  

Additionally,  the  higher  potential  of  gas  reduction  may  allow  the  EU  to  roll  back  the  temporary 
measures before 2027, such as (i) the measure to reduce the thermostat with one degree (10 bcm), (ii) 
more operating hours and delayed phase out of coal power plants (24 bcm), and (iii) delayed phase-
out of nuclear plants (7bcm). 

28 The 60bcm of diversification measures can be achieved entirely by 2027; the remainder is multiplied by 70% (to bring 
2030 figures to 2027). Arithmetically, 235 = 60 + 70% * (310-60).  
29 Total of 178 bcm of pipeline and 17 bcm LNG (ENTSOG) 
30 For example, at present no real hydrogen shipping capacity is available and needs to be quickly developed. 

11 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
4. 

A Changing Energy System 

Our  analysis  suggests  that  the  higher  energy  prices  and  the  measures  announced  in  the  March 
Communication will change the energy system, and its Fit-for-55 transition: 

- Gas use in the EU will decrease faster than in the Fit-for-55 proposals;  

- Fuel switch is a major driver of diversification. The higher gas prices increase the operating hours 
of coal and nuclear power plants. In the longer term, the analysis shows more renewables (including 
direct natural gas substitutes such as bio-methane and hydrogen), and more energy savings than in 
the Fit-for 55 proposals. 

On gas, coal and nuclear: 

  As a direct effect of sustained high natural gas prices, installed capacity of gas plants will 
be approximately 8 GW lower by 2030 than anticipated in the Fit-for-55 proposals. The gross 
electricity generated from gas power plants is 240 TWh lower (-67% in 2030) than in the Fit-
for-55 proposals. 

  The utilisation of coal plants increases and the gross electricity generation is 105 TWh higher 

for coal power plants in 2030 than in the Fit-for-55.  

  The  analysis  incorporates  the  operation  of  two  Belgian  nuclear  units  beyond  2025  and 
maintained nuclear capacity in France. Gross nuclear electricity generation is 45 TWh higher 
in 2030 than in the Fit-for-55 proposals. 

  Net imports of natural gas decrease by 97 Mtoe, but increase for solids (+13 Mtoe) and oil (+6 

Mtoe) compared to the Fit-for-55 (all fossil fuels imports decrease compared to today). 

Figure 1: Gross inland consumption by fuel in 2019 and in 2030 in the Fit-for-55 and 
REPowerEU scenarios (Mtoe) 

Source: Eurostat (2019) and Primes (2030) 

Regarding the potential of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency: 

12 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Compared to the Fit-for-55 proposals, the use of renewables and to a lesser extent coal increases 
as a share of gross electricity generation (respectively +3.7 pp and +2.6 pp), while that of gas 
decreases (-7 pp to 3.3% in 2030). 
In this RePowerEU modelling scenario, most of the additional PV and wind production is used 
by the increased domestic production of green hydrogen. However, if directly used to displace 
gas-fired  power  generation,  investments  of  approximately  1.6  bn€  in  wind  or  solar  PV  are 
required to save 1 bcm of gas.  

 

  As a result, the share of renewable energy in 2030 is 45% (compared to 40% in the Fit-for-

55 proposal).  

  Driven by higher prices, dedicated policies and consumer awareness, energy efficiency also 
improves. Final energy consumption in the EU in 2030 is 768 Mtoe, or 4.6% lower than in the 
Fit-for-55 proposal.  

  The use of natural gas decreases significantly in the residential and services sectors. By 2030, 
gas use in buildings decreases by 27 Mtoe (equivalent to approximately  32 bcm of gas).  In 
these sectors, natural gas is replaced mainly by  electrification, heat pumps and bio-methane 
transported  in  the  existing  gas  network.  Higher  consumption  of  hydrogen  in  hard-to-abate 
transport sectors,  especially in  heavy  duty  trucks  and through the production of sustainable 
fuels for aviation and waterborne sectors provides another opportunity to replace Russian fossil 
fuels. 

Figure 2: Final energy consumption by fuel in 2019 and 2030 in the Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU 
scenarios (Mtoe) 

Source: Eurostat (2019) and Primes (2030) 

13 

 
 
 
 
 
 
5. 

Preparing  for  the  next  winter  by  Short-Term  and  Behavioural  measures  Energy 
System 

There  are  two  types  of  short-term  measures  to  reduce  the  dependence  on  Russian  fossil  fuels: 
alternative  sources  of  imports,  behavioural  demand  reduction  measures.  Short-term  measures  can 
reduce the demand for Russian natural gas by 70 bcm p.a. (without curtailment) and the demand for 
crude oil by up to 850,000 barrels per day in the EU27. 

Alternative sources of imports 

Regarding natural gas, additional imports from alternative sources can reach Europe either by pipeline 
or in the form of LNG. In the short term, i.e. by using only existing infrastructure, additional 10bcm 
can be imported by pipeline and 50 bcm using existing LNG infrastructure.  

Behavioural measures 

Behavioural measures, in particular the reduction of thermostats by 1 degree Celsius, can save around 
10  bcm  of  natural  gas,  according  to  the  IEA.  To  avoid  double-counting,  this  reduction  in  thermal 
comfort would have to come in addition to any price-induced demand reduction. 

Table 2: Estimated Russian gas import reductions from some short-term measures 

Measure 
Additional pipelines imports 
LNG imports31 
Behavioural measures 
Total 

Natural gas saved (bcm) 
10 
50 
10 
70 

Table 3: Estimated oil savings from behavioural measures 

Measure 

Oil saved (kb/d) 

Reduce speed limits on highways by at least 10 km/h 

Working from home up to 3 days where possible 

Car-free Sundays in cities 

Make the use of public transport cheaper and incentivise micro-mobility 

Alternate private car access to roads in large cities 

Increase car sharing and adopt practices to reduce fuel use 

Promote efficient driving for freight trucks and delivery of goods 

Using HSR and night trains instead of planes where possible 

Avoid business air travel where alternative options exist 

160 

115 

80 

105 

50 

150 

110 

30 

70 

Reinforce the adoption of electric and more efficient vehicles 
Total 
Source: Estimates from IEA’s 10-point plan to cut oil use, re-scaled to the EU  

35 
85032 

31 A 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union’s Reliance on Russian Natural Gas, IEA, March 2022. 

32 This table lists the behavioural measures, estimated by the IEA (A 10-Point Plan to Cut Oil Use, March 2022), and 
adapted to EU27. The total is smaller than the sum of all measures. This is because if all measures are taken there is some 
overlap, which we have accounted for. 

14 

 
 
                                                           
 
6. 

Costs and benefits 

Higher fuel costs and the additional efforts to reduce gas consumption increase the cost of the energy 
system33 by almost 10% to about €1900 bn per year.34 As a share of GDP, system costs increase 
from 11.3% of GDP to 13.4%.  

The  joint  implementation  of  the  Fit-for-55  proposals  with  REPowerEU  will  generate  a  number  of 
benefits too. 

The Commission analysis estimates that with the Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU measures combined, the 
EU can save €80 bn on gas import expenditures, €12 bn on oil import expenditures and €1.7 bn on 
coal import expenditures per year.   

IEA experts suggest that the Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU measures will make gas prices converge to 
lower levels (albeit possibly higher than historic levels). 

7. 

Overall investment needs 

The  current  analysis  indicates  that  the  investment  needs  to  reduce  the  dependence  to  zero  would 
amount to €300bn from now until 2030 on top of the total Fit-for-55 investments (or, €210bn by the 
end of 2027). Not delaying the phase-out of existing coal and nuclear plants as officially announced 
would lead to higher investment needs. Despite temporarily higher coal use in power generation, the 
climate ambition levels are reached since REPowerEU leads to investments in renewables and energy 
efficiency  beyond  the  Fit-for-55  proposals.  In  this  context,  investments  needed  for  scaling  up  the 
production of clean energy technology components and equipment in the EU need to be facilitated at 
various policy levels, which would further help achieve EU’s decarbonisation, energy security, and 
resilience objectives. 
Two trends drive investments with persisting high gas prices and reduced imports: 

1. 
As a response to high prices, users switch to other fuels. With existing capacities, this 
can be achieved with relatively little additional investments (e.g., when coal and nuclear power 
plants increase operating hours).  

Users switch to new technologies (e.g., to renewable energy or heat pumps), or new 

2. 
capacities are installed (e.g. new nuclear plants). This increases the investment needs. 

A careful in-depth analysis is needed to disaggregate and quantify the two effects. 

The current analysis indicates that the investment needs to reduce the dependence on Russian fossil 
fuels to zero would amount to €300bn from now until 2030 on top of the total Fit-for-55 investments. 

33 Including the cost of fuels (fossil, biomass, etc.), O&M costs and capital costs, but excluding the cost of carbon 
emissions. 
34 Average for the 2021-2030 decade (compared to the Fit-for-55 package) including the transport sector (values in €’22).  

15 

 
 
 
                                                           
By the end of 2027, the investments add up to approximately €210bn.  Table 135 shows the investment 
needs for some of the measures proposed. 

Table 4: Investment by 2030 for reaching the RePowerEU objectives 

Investment areas 

REPowerEU  

Ff55  

Difference  Diff. due to high 

prices  

Installed wind capacity 
(GW) 
Installed solar PV capacity 
(GW) 
Installed heat pumps in 
residential and services 
(million units) 
Installed electrolyser 
capacity (MW hydrogen) 
Net imports of hydrogen 
(Mt)  
Biogas used in power plants 
(Mtoe)  
Biogas as transformation 
input in industry and 
district heating (ktoe) 
Electricity grid investments 
over the decade (bn€’22) 
Annual renovation rate in 
2030 (as % of entire 
housing stock) 
Annual renovation rate - 
medium and deep 
renovation in 2030 (as % of 
entire housing stock) 
Investment expenditure in 
residential buildings in 
2021-2030 (bn €'22) 

510 

592 

41.5 

65 

6.16 

12.3 

6.9 

469 

530 

39.9 

44 

0.05 

11.8 

3.3 

41 

62 

1.7 

21 

6.11 

0.5 

3.6 

583.8 

554.4 

29.4 

2.3 

2.1 

2.0 

0.2 

1.9 

0.2 

2068 

2023 

45 

13 

16 

3.4 

1.6 

0 

0.9 

42 

37 

0 

0 

- 

Implementing  REPowerEU  will  require  investments  in  several  areas.  The  strong  increase  in  the 
consumption  of  renewable  hydrogen  translates  in  needs  to  increase  the  installed  capacity  of 
electrolysers, from 44 GW in Fit-for-55 to 65 GW36 in REPowerEU. Installed capacity of wind and 
solar also need to increase to supply electriolysers with renewable electricity. In REPowerEU, there 
are 41 GW of wind and 62 GW of solar in additional capacity. In addition to production, net imports 
of renewable hydrogen are also higher, at more than 6 Mt of hydrogen in 2030. 

35 Costs and investment numbers are preliminary estimates and are subject to change. 
36 Lower running hours would need  up to 80 GW of installed hydrogen electrolyzers (cfr. hydrogen accelerator). 
Running hours are determined by the electricity system, flexibility requirements and geographic location of electricity 
sources, among others. 

16 

 
 
                                                           
The  use  of  biogas  as  transformation  input  in  industry  and  district  heating  is  twice  higher  in 
REPowerEU. Investments will also need to occur in the buildings sector, with the annual renovation 
rate higher in REPowerEU than in Fit-for-55. The electricity grid would need further reinforcement 
and additional investments to the amount of bn EUR 29 bn over the decade. Beyond these investments 
an additional investment of circa EUR 10 bn would be necessary for storage. 

8. 

Infrastructure Needs and Bottlenecks 

The measures proposed for decoupling the energy supply from Russia constitute a significant 
change to the energy system in terms of quantities, prices, and directions of energy flows. 

As  a  result,  the  infrastructure  needs  for  electricity,  hydrogen  and  natural  gas  should  adapt.  These 
infrastructure investments should solve the needs of the forthcoming decade in a coordinated manner, 
avoiding creating stranded assets to the extent possible, facilitating the long-term transition to a carbon-
neutral economy. By 2030, €39 bn of additional investments (Table 1) are needed in the power grid 
(including transmission, distribution and storage plants), compared to the Fit- for- 55 scenario, in order 
to balance the power grid and in line with the higher deployment of renewables.  

The  diversification  of  import  sources  is  essential  to  eliminate  natural  gas  imports  from  Russia.  In 
particular, it will be necessary to import sufficient additional natural gas from other pipeline suppliers 
and LNG ports. These new import routes and new intra-EU gas flows will require a sufficient level of 
gas  infrastructure  (LNG  terminals,  pipelines,  reverse  flows)  corresponding  to  €  10bn  of 
investments  by  2030  additional  to  those  necessary  to  achieve  the  Fit-for-55  objectives,  in  order  to 
guarantee sufficient supply and a fluid distribution of natural gas across all Member States, such for 
PCIs on the 5th PCI list  and the Recovery and Resilience Facility  for any additional infrastructure, 
supplementing the Trans-European Network policy. The need for any additional infrastructure should 
be  well  assessed  also  at  the  regional  and  EU  level,  avoiding  stranded  assets.  The  resilience  of  the 
infrastructure and the future use of the assets in a decarbonised energy system (e.g repurposing) should 
be taken into consideration in the design of such projects. Simultaneously, the REPowerEU proposes 
ambitious  level  of  renewable  hydrogen  deployment,  which  also  requires  an  acceleration  of  the 
development  of  renewable  hydrogen  infrastructure.  Given  the  expected  decrease  in  natural  gas 
demand  and  in  order  to  avoid  locking-in  fossil  fuel  use,  the  gas  and  hydrogen  infrastructure 
investments should make use of synergies in order to be future-proof investments. Hydrogen networks 
should  enable  a  pan-European  integration  of  hydrogen  supply  and  demand.  The  development  of  a 
suitable hydrogen infrastructure is closely related to the deployment of renewable energy, the location 
of electrolysers producing renewable hydrogen and the form in which hydrogen is to be transported or 
imported. In particular, ammonia is an important alternative to liquefied hydrogen for international 
trade. There exists potential to modify regasification facilities to receive shipments of ammonia. 

17 

 
 
 
 
The further increase and integration of renewable energy requires an efficient and adapted electricity 
network. REPowerEU increases and frontloads the renewable capacities compared to Fit-for-55, and 
the electricity network should adapt accordingly, including offshore and onshore grid. 

EU-level and regional action will continue to be discussed in well-established and dedicated groups 
for  EU-wide  infrastructure  planning  such  as  the  TEN-E  policy  regional  groups,  the  relevant  High-
Level Groups (CESEC, BEMIP, South-West Europe, NSEC), Gas Coordination Group and the LNG 
platform to ensure that capital-intensive energy (particularly gas) network investments are optimised 
across the EU avoiding duplication resulting in overcapacity and stranded assets. At the national level, 
the  REPowerEU  component  of  the  RRPs  will  need  to  support  REPowerEU  objectives,  ensure  that 
investments and reforms fit with national contexts and avoid fossil-fuel lock-in and stranded assets. 
Under  the  Technical  Support  Instrument,  the  Commission  is  helping  Member  States37  to  identify 
additional investments and reforms to phase out the dependency on fossil fuel imports from Russia. 

37 Commission’s Technical Support Instrument to help 17 Member States curb their reliance on Russian fossil fuels | 
European Commission (europa.eu) 

18 

 
 
  
 
 
                                                           
9. 

Industry 

Compared to the Fit-for-55 proposals, we see additional scope for decreasing consumption of natural 
gas  in  all  industrial  sectors  by  2030.  Implementing  REPowerEU  would,  in  addition  to  higher  fuel 
prices, lead to a switch in the industrial sector from natural gas to hydrogen and coal, and to a lesser 
extent oil.  

As indicated in Table 5, natural gas consumption in industry is 35% lower in the REPowerEU analysis 
compared to Fit-for-55. Natural gas consumption of the chemicals and non-metallic minerals sectors 
is lower by 6.6 and 7.8 bcm respectively in REPowerEU compared to Fit-for-55, thus accounting for 
the largest reductions together with refineries. Together, these three sectors account for approximately 
60% of the reduction in gas consumption from the industry in the decade to 2030. Only about one-
tenth of the reduction in natural gas use by industry is driven by higher fossil fuel prices. In percentage 
change, the changes are most significant in the non-ferrous metals (-46%), non-metallic minerals (-
63%), and paper and pulp (-49%) sectors.  

Reducing  the use of natural  gas by the industry  requires a  coordinated action to  activate  all levers 
including  energy  efficient  industrial  processes,  integration  of  renewables  and  renewable  hydrogen, 
electrification of industrial processes, digitalisation and industrial symbiosis.  

Table 5: Natural gas use by industrial sector in 2030 (bcm)38,39 

Sector 

REPowerEU 

Ff55 

Difference 

Chemicals 
Engineering 
Food, drink and tobacco 
Iron and steel 
Non ferrous metals 
Non metallic minerals 
Paper and pulp 
Refineries 
Textiles 
Other industries 
Total 

25.4 
6.7 
7.6 
4.3 
1.7 
4.6 
1.7 
1.2 
0.9 
2.7 
57.0 

32.0 
10.0 
11.2 
6.7 
3.2 
12.5 
3.4 
7.4 
1.3 
4.3 
91.9 

-6.6 
-3.2 
-3.5 
-2.4 
-1.5 
-7.8 
-1.6 
-6.2 
-0.4 
-1.5 
-34.9 

Diff. due 
to high 
prices 
-0.8 
-0.8 
-0.7 
0.0 
-0.1 
-0.8 
-0.4 
0.1 
-0.1 
0.2 
-3.4 

Source: Modelling using PRIMES. Note: conversion from Mtoe to bcm GCV uses a 1/0.84 factor.  

The decrease in natural gas use in industry is to a limited extend compensated by somewhat higher oil 
(+4%) and coal (+9%) use. For coal (but not for oil), much of this increase is driven by the different 
price trajectories alone: the strong increase in gas prices creates incentives for industries to switch from 
gas to coal. For the chemicals sector for instance, coal use is 28% higher in REPowerEU compared to 

38 The data in Tables 4 to 6 add up final energy consumption and fuel use as an input. In addition, Iron and steel includes 
fuel use in blast furnaces. Refineries refers to own consumption by the energy sector in refineries.  
39 Including refineries and the uptake of hydrogen and bio-methane.  

19 

 
 
                                                           
Fit-for-55, albeit from relatively low levels (Table 7). For engineering, non-ferrous metals and paper 
and  pulp,  coal  use  is  higher  by  more  than  80%  in  REPowerEU.  The  slightly  higher  oil  use  in 
REPowerEU  compared  to  Fit-for-55  is  not  due  to  different  fuel  prices  trajectories  but  by  the 
implementation of REPowerEU. For instance, oil use in the paper and pulp sector is higher by 180%, 
with only a marginal share driven by different fuel prices (Table 6).  

Table 6: Oil use by industrial sector in 2030 (Mtoe) 

Sector  

REPowerEU 

Ff55 

Difference 

Chemicals 
Engineering 
Food, drink and tobacco 
Iron and steel 
Non ferrous metals 
Non metallic minerals 
Paper and pulp 
Refineries 
Textiles 
Other industries 
Total 

59.74 
1.48 
1.36 
0.86 
0.37 
5.21 
1.26 
0.00 
0.14 
28.36 
98.78 

59.16 
1.01 
1.25 
0.86 
0.23 
4.16 
0.45 
0.00 
0.12 
27.55 
94.81 

0.57 
0.46 
0.11 
0.00 
0.14 
1.05 
0.81 
0.00 
0.02 
0.81 
3.97 

Source: Modelling using PRIMES. 

Table 7: Coal use by industrial sector in 2030 (Mtoe) 

Sector  

REPowerEU 

Ff55 

Difference 

Chemicals 
Engineering 
Food, drink and tobacco 
Iron and steel 
Non ferrous metals 
Non metallic minerals 
Paper and pulp 
Refineries 
Textiles 
Other industries 
Total 

Source: Modelling using PRIMES. 

2.10 
0.12 
1.06 
15.42 
0.17 
3.16 
0.79 
0.02 
0.03 
1.76 
24.64 

1.64 
0.07 
0.78 
15.82 
0.09 
2.39 
0.34 
0.02 
0.03 
1.50 
22.68 

0.46 
0.06 
0.28 
-0.40 
0.08 
0.77 
0.45 
0.00 
0.00 
0.26 
1.96 

Diff. due 
to high 
prices 
0.23 
-0.03 
0.00 
-0.02 
0.00 
-0.12 
0.03 
0.00 
-0.01 
-0.01 
0.06 

Diff. due 
to high 
prices 
0.09 
0.00 
0.05 
1.28 
0.01 
0.04 
0.05 
0.00 
0.00 
-0.01 
1.49 

In REPowerEU the potential for renewable hydrogen use in industry is illustrated by a significantly 
higher consumption in all sectors. Hydrogen consumption is higher by a factor of 3.7 in refineries, 4.8 
in industrial heat, 2.5 in petrochemicals in REPower compared to Fit-for-55. Consumption of hydrogen 
in the transport sector is also higher by 1.4 Mt of hydrogen in REPowerEU, or about 2.5 times what it 
would be in Fit-for-55 (Table 8). Without REPowerEU and with the influence of higher fossil fuel 
prices,  the  use  of  renewable  hydrogen  by  the  industry  would  be  lower  in  2030,  notably  in 

20 

 
 
petrochemicals, blast furnaces, synthetic fuels and refineries. REPowerEU therefore plays a key role 
in generalising the use of renewable hydrogen in industry. 

Table 8: Hydrogen use by sector in 2030 (kt hydrogen) 

Sector 

RePowerEU 

Fit-for-55 

Difference 

Bunker fuels 
Refineries 
Industrial Heat 
Transport 
Petrochemicals (Ammonia) 
Blast furnaces 
Synthetic fuels 
Power generation 
Blending 
Total 
Note: conversion from ktoe to kt H2 uses a 2.87 factor. 

0 
2273 
3629 
2319 
3232 
1520 
1788 
105 
1335 
16200 

0 
613 
756 
882 
1306 
1152 
1870 
0 
0 
6579 

0 
1660 
2873 
1437 
1925 
368 
-82 
105 
1335 
9621 

Diff. 
due to high 
prices 
0 
-32 
146 
90 
-116 
-92 
-63 
0 
0 
-67 

In addition to the RePowerEU analysis, a bottom-up assessment of existing projects indicates that the 
energy intensive industries (EII) have various projects in the pipeline with high technological readiness 
level and high potential for decarbonisation and the reduction of Russian fossil fuels’ consumption. 
The acceleration of investments could provide a substantial contribution in terms of energy savings, 
both short term and long term. 

10. 

Skills, social, employment 

To  ensure  a  successful  implementation  of  the  REPowerEU  Plan,  and  in  line  with  the  Fit-for-55 
packages40 as well as the narrative of the European Green Deal to ensure that nobody is left behind, 
social and labour market investments as well as fair transition aspects have to be considered from the 
outset. Moreover, skill shortages may slow down the implementation of the RePowerEU and Fit-for-
55. increased and accelerated green transition. 

40 In particular COM(2021) 801. 

21 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
3.  RENEWABLES AND ENERGY EFFIENCY FOR REPOWEREU 

1. 

 Renewables 

The  RePowerEU  scenario  shows  that  the  increase  of  the  overall  RES  to  45%  in  2030  leads  to  an 
increase  in  all  supply  and  demand  renewable  sectors  –  electricity,  heating  and  cooling,  industry, 
buildings and transport as illustrated in Table 9.  

Table 9: Renewables in RePowerEU scenario 

Renewables in RePowerEU 

Renewables in Fit-for-55  

Overall RES Target 

EU binding 

45% 

40% 

Heating & Cooling 

Average yearly 
increase for 2020-
2030 at EU level 

District  Heating  & 
Cooling 

Average yearly 
increase for 2020-
2030 at EU level 

Buildings 

2.3 percentage point 

1.5 percentage point* 

2.3 percentage point 

2.1 percentage point 

EU RES Share in 
Buildings in 2030 at 
EU level 

60% 

49% 

Transport 

RES-T share in 2030 
/ GHG intensity 
reduction in 
transport 

Share of advanced 
biofuels in 2030 
(single-counted) 

32% / 16%  

28% / 13%  

2.2%  

2.2% 

22 

 
 
 
 
  
 
  
  
 
  
 
  
 
  
Share of RFNBOs in 
2030 (single 
counted) 

5.7%  

2.6% 

35 bcm  

18 bcm 

1.9 percentage point 

1.1 percentage points  

Biomethane 
production  beyond 
the transport sector 

Industry 

RES share in 
industry - Average 
yearly increase for 
2020-2030 at EU 
level 

RFNBOs in industry  78% of hydrogen consumed in 

industry is renewable 

50% of hydrogen consumed in 
industry is renewable 

* for the purpose of the RED, the heating and cooling target is divided into the annual minimum and top-ups. 

By  2030,  the  renewable  energy  share  in  the  electricity  ('RES-E')  sector  would  reach  69%  in  the 
RePower context. This implies that substantial acceleration will be needed. 

During the same time period, the share of renewables in the heating and cooling sector ('RES-H&C') 
would increase to 46% compared to the 38-40% observed in the Fit-for-55 proposals.  

Of all sectors, transport has, in 2020, the lowest penetration of renewables with a share ('RES-T') of 
10%41. By 2030, this needs to increase to reach 32%.  

Between 2020 and 2030, the share of wind and solar energy in installed power production capacities 
is projected to increase from 33% to 67%. In 2030, solar energy would be also the largest electricity 
source in terms of capacity, with more than half expected to be solar-rooftop capacities. Wind energy 
would have a 31% share of installed capacity in 2030, with an increase of 12 p.p. from 2020. Figure 3 
shows PRIMES modelling projections of the net installed power capacity in REPowerEU in 2030. 

In this context, boosting the capabilities in Europe for manufacturing clean energy equipment across 
their value chains would help ensure that EU climate objectives are not jeopardised by creating import 
dependencies elsewhere, as well as improve EU energy security and resilience prospects. This will 
require  diversifying  the  supply  of  renewable  energy  equipment,  reducing  sectoral  dependencies, 

41 According to Articles 25-27 of Directive 2018/2001/EC (revised RED) where specific caps and multipliers apply for 
different renewable fuels. If the share was to be calculated according to the methodology in Directives 2009/28/EC and 
2015/1513/EC (RED up to 2020) it would be equal to 7%. 

23 

 
 
 
  
                                                           
overcoming supply chain bottlenecks and expanding the EU’s clean energy technology manufacturing 
capacity.  

Figure 3: Net installed power capacity in REPowerEU in 2030 (GWe) 

Source: Modelling using PRIMES. 

2. 

Energy Efficiency 

The combined effect of high fuel prices and policies designed to reduce gas dependence will affect the 
way energy is used in Europe. The effect of high fuel prices alone is twofold. The price increase is 
particularly high for natural gas prompting a shift towards fuels with lower conversion efficiency (e.g., 
coal). This shift tends to increase primary energy consumption. Secondly, in final consumption sectors, 
high prices tend to promote energy conservation reducing final energy consumption. These two effects 
tend to counterbalance each other: by 2030, in a scenario driven by high prices alone, Gross Inland 
Consumption  is  slightly  higher  (+0.4%  compared  to  the  Fit-for-55  scenario)  while  Final  Energy 
Consumption is slightly lower (-0.6% compared to the Fit-for-55 scenario). 

Additional policies aimed at reducing gas consumption further promote energy efficiency. Fuel shift 
from gas to coal and oil still take place, but it is now more than compensated by a deeper reduction in 
energy consumption. Compared to the Fit-for-55 scenario, both Gross Inland Consumption and Final 
Energy Consumption is significantly lower by 2030 (-3.8% and -4.8% respectively). 

In all scenarios (including the Fit-for-55 scenario) consumption of all fossil fuels is significantly lower 
compared to 2020. However, by 2030, the fuel shift prompted by high prices and security of supply 
policies is significant: compared to the Fit-for-55 scenario, consumption of natural gas is 48% lower 
while  consumption  of  coal  is  41%  higher.  Gross  electricity  generation  is  slightly  higher  in  2030 
compared  to  the  counterfactual.  Power  generations  the  residential  sector  consume  a  high  share  of 
natural gas and are particularly affected. Table 11 illustrates the change in final energy demand by 
sector. 

With respect to the projections in the EU Reference Scenario 2020, final energy consumption is 13% 
lower (compared to nearly 9% in the Fit-for-55 scenario). 

24 

 
 
 
 
In the residential sector, additional energy efficiency measures reduce energy consumption by more 
than  6%  compared  to  the  Fit-for-55  package.  The  increased  gas  price  delays  investments  aimed  at 
replacing heating systems using coal and oil resulting in the fuel shift described above. Electrification 
is  only  slightly  higher  as  additional  demand  for  electricity  is  compensated  by  reduced  energy  use. 
Average  energy  consumption  per  square  meter  is  slightly  lower  in  the  residential  sector.  Annual 
renovation rate is higher: 2% in the Fit-for-55 scenario compared to 2.25% in REPowerEU. Energy 
related expenses for household are higher by almost 60€ per year, this difference being due to the effect 
of high prices. Energy use in the service sector is similar to the residential sector, but with slightly 
higher energy savings. 

Table 10: Energy consumption in final demand sectors (Mtoe) 

RePowerEU 

Fit-for-55 

Difference 

Diff. due to high 
prices 

Final energy 
consumption y 
sector 

Industry 

Residential 

Tertiary 

Transport 

196 

174 

121 

221 

Total 
Source: Modelling using PRIMES. 

712 

203 

186 

130 

229 

748 

-7 

-12 

-9 

-8 

-36 

-1 

3 

-2 

-5 

-4 

25 

 
 
 
 
 
 
4.  HYDROGEN ACCELERATOR  

1. 

Scaling up the production and import of renewable hydrogen to 20 Mt by 2030  

Demand side   

The European Commission has already proposed minimum levels of renewable hydrogen uptake in 
industrial applications and the transport sector in the Renewable Energy Directive (amounting to 5,6 
Mt renewable hydrogen by 2030). In view of moving away from the use of Russian fossil fuel imports 
in the EU, the EU needs to accelerate ramping up both demand and supply of renewable hydrogen. 
The focus of hydrogen demand should primarily remain on applications in hard-to-decarbonise sectors 
in industry and transport. European Commission modelling (PRIMES) results show that the scaling 
up of renewable hydrogen use in the EU to 20 Mt in 2030 creates opportunities for the uptake of higher 
volumes in certain industry and transport sectors. According to this modelling, upscaling the use of 
renewable  hydrogen,  ammonia  and  other  derivatives  would  accelerate  decarbonisation  and  greatly 
reduce  the  EU’s  dependence  on  natural  gas  (by  approximately  27  bcm),  oil  (by  approximately  3.9 
Mtoe) and coking coal imports (approximately 156 Kt) from Russia42 43.  

To unlock investment in renewable hydrogen use in industry, the Commission will double the funding 
for the Innovation Fund’s 2022 Large Scale Call this autumn to around 3 billion EUR, financed by 
higher revenues expected in 2022 and 2023 from the Emissions Trading System. This year’s Call will 
contain also  a window focused on innovative electrification and hydrogen applications  in industry. 
Furthermore, in the review of the EU Emission Trading System it is proposed to allow the Innovation 
Fund  to  cover  100%  of  the  relevant  costs  in  the  case  of  competitive  bidding.  On  this  basis  the 
Innovation Fund will also be able to support hydrogen uptake by industry through an EU-wide scheme 
for (Carbon) Contracts for Difference.  

According to Commission modelling (PRIMES) the uptake of higher volumes of renewable hydrogen 
in the priority sectors identified for the Fit-for-55 targets translates into higher shares of renewable 
hydrogen and renewable fuels of non-biological origin in the industry sector, increasing from 50 to 
above 75%. In particular, hydrogen production based on natural gas should be replaced in ammonia 
production and in hydrogen use by refineries by 2030 and the steel industry should see the start of the 
shift from the use of coking coal to hydrogen. The share of hydrogen and derived fuels (renewable 
fuels  of  non-biological  origin)  in  the  transport  sector  would  also  increase  to  above  5%.  Higher 
consumption  of  hydrogen  in  hard-to-abate  transport  sectors,  especially  in  heavy  duty  trucks  and 
through  the  production  of  sustainable  fuels  for  aviation  and  waterborne  sectors  provides  another 
opportunity to replace Russian fossil fuels. The concept of hydrogen valleys can be further promoted 
as they are key to igniting and increasing hydrogen supply and demand44, especially around industrial 
clusters  where  hydrogen  applications  could  be  shared  amongst  multiple  users  in  close  proximity. 
Today there are 23 hydrogen valleys across Europe in 10 Member States. Substantial investment is 

42 According to Eurostat in 2020 about 12% of coking coal used in the EU was imported from Russia. 
43 Repower EU scenario: the figures correspond to the increased use of renewable hydrogen to replace the use natural gas, 
oil  and  coal  until  2030  in  hard-to-decarbonise  sectors  as  initially  envisaged  under  the  fit-for-55  scenario  as  well  as  an 
increased role for blending hydrogen in the existing gas grid. 
44 One of the main priorities of the EU is the development of so-called hydrogen valleys that bring together – in a limited 
geographical area - all the elements of renewable hydrogen production, storage and end-use into an integrated ecosystem. 
Hydrogen valleys can vary in size and scope thus proving to be very flexible in adapting to local energy needs.  

26 

 
 
                                                           
needed to double the number of hydrogen valleys by 2025 in order to accelerate the energy transition 
across the EU.  

Beyond using renewable hydrogen in industry and transport, it is necessary to look at other sectors 
where  hydrogen  uptake  could  be  increased  without  causing  harm.  The  Commission  reiterates  its 
position  that  blending  hydrogen  into  the  natural  gas  grid  requires  careful  consideration  as  it 
diminishes gas quality, can increases overall system costs and the costs of heating for the residential 
sector, and it is in most applications a less efficient alternative to direct electrification. Nevertheless, 
blending up to around 3% by volume of renewable hydrogen in the gas grid may absorb about 1,3 
million tonnes of hydrogen and replace 4,7 bcm  natural gas. This requires however considering all 
consequences and costs of blending, including overall system costs and adaptation costs for household 
and industrial end-users45. For example, the costs for end-users and infrastructure operators to adapt 
to a 5% blending level (by volume) would amount to around € 3,6 billion per year46.  

Figure 4: Hydrogen use by sector in 2030 

Source: Modelling using PRIMES. 

45 Blending already low volumes of hydrogen into the natural gas network can cause significant problems and additional 
costs for end-users. The costs to adapt to a certain level of hydrogen blend include the adaptation costs at end-users (change 
of  end-use  appliances,  e.g.  furnaces,  turbines,  engines,  household  boilers),  at  the  level  of  infrastructure  (change  of 
compressor  stations  and  measuring  equipment/comptographs),  the  increased  cost  of  gas  quality  management  and  the 
increased overall system costs (i.e. replacing more efficient applications e.g. for space heating) and higher subsidy needs 
(in view of lower willingness to pay when cheaper alternatives are available). 
46 Annex 7, Gas quality: Hydrogen blending cross-border framework of the Commission SWD  Impact Assessment Report 
accompanying the Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on common rules for the internal 
markets in renewable and natural gases and in hydrogen (recast) and Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament 
and  of  the  Council  on  the  internal  markets  for  renewable  and  natural  gases  and  for  hydrogen  (recasts), 
https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/23b8497d-5d8b-11ec-9c6c-01aa75ed71a1/language-en. 

27 

 
 
 
                                                           
The  Commission  modelling  carried  out  for  REPowerEU  is  based  on  the  assumption  of  10  Mt 
renewable  hydrogen  produced  in  the  EU  and  6  Mt  of  renewable  hydrogen  imported  from  third 
countries  (with  the  expectation  that  supply  capacity  for  transporting  hydrogen  into  Europe  is 
established). Higher levels of consumption, up to the 20 Mt of hydrogen announced in the REPowerEU 
communication is assumed to be delivered from third countries in the form of ammonia and potentially 
in  the  form  of  other  hydrogen  carriers  and  derivatives.  The  chart  above  shows  the  results  of  the 
REPowerEU modelling compared to the modelling results for the Fit-for-55 package. 

To  support  such  an  increase  of  renewable  hydrogen  use  in  these  sectors,  a  progress  report  on  the 
production, transportation and uptake of hydrogen in the different sectors should be prepared regularly 
starting in 2025, in close cooperation with Member States and strengthening collaboration within the 
Hydrogen Energy Network (HyEnet).   

The EU Strategy for Standardisation of February 202247 identified standards to support the roll-out of 
the hydrogen value chain as a standardisation priority. This becomes highly relevant because hydrogen 
quality  issues  are  expected  to  emerge  once  hydrogen  is  injected  into  the  hydrogen  network  from 
different production processes and transported through a meshed network, including cross-border. To 
tackle  this  issue,  a  mandate  for  the  standardisation  of  hydrogen  quality  in  the  dedicated  hydrogen 
network to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen in the priority sectors will be developed.  

Supply side  

Stepping up our renewable hydrogen ambition requires further  additional investments in renewable 
energy production requiring around 500 TWh of additional power generation in 2030. Total investment 
costs are expected to be in the range of € 335-471 billion, with € 200-300 billion needed for additional 
renewable electricity production.  

Furthermore,  the  European  electrolyser  manufacturing  capacity  must  be  scaled-up  significantly  to 
meet the expected demand for renewable hydrogen production. Electrolyser manufacturers in Europe 
set the objective to have in place by 2025 a combined annual electrolyser manufacturing capacity in 
Europe of 17.5 GW, and to further increase that capacity by 2030 in line with projected demand for 
renewable and low-carbon hydrogen48. To support these objectives, the European Commission will 
put in place enabling regulatory framework, facilitate access to finance and promote efficient supply 
chains. The upscaling of the electrolyser manufacturing capacities will require investments estimated 
at up to €2bn.49  

The Commission supports renewable hydrogen investments in the context of the Innovation Fund 
by mobilising increased financial resources, defining specific windows within the next call to reflect 
the REPower EU priorities (notably maximizing the impact in terms of decarbonizing industry and 
moving away from imported fossil fuels) and by initiating specific focus on priority areas, such as 

47 An EU Strategy on Standardisation - Setting global standards in support of a resilient, green and digital EU single market, 
https://ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/48598. 
48 Electrolyser Summit Joint Declaration 2022, DocsRoom - European Commission (europa.eu).  
49 European Commission services estimate based on actual industry project costs. 

28 

 
 
                                                           
renewable  hydrogen-based  applications  in  industry  and  clean-tech  manufacturing,  such  as  of 
electrolysers.. 

The Commission will also do its utmost to assess state aid related to renewable hydrogen, while 
ensuring a level playing field and considering technology neutrality, including in the framework of 
Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEIs).50 

To  speed  up  permitting  procedures  for  renewable  electricity  generation,  renewable  hydrogen 
production  and  for  infrastructure  development,  on  18  May  2022  the  Commission  put  forward  a 
legislative proposal on permitting and a related recommendation51. Furthermore, under the hydrogen 
and  gas  markets  decarbonisation  package  a  number  of  measures  have  been  proposed  to  expedite 
authorisation procedures for the repurposing of existing natural gas infrastructure for the transport and 
storage of hydrogen as well as procedures for newly constructed dedicated hydrogen infrastructure. 
Member States are encouraged to work pro-actively on adopting some of these measures, or similar 
ones, in their national law in view of facilitating the transposition of the hydrogen and gas markets 
decarbonisation package, once it is finalised in the co-decision process.  

To gain further insight in applicable permitting rules and procedures for the construction and operation 
of  future  infrastructure  dedicated  to  the  production,  storage  and  transport  of  pure  hydrogen,  the 
preparation  of  a  guidance  document  should  be  considered.  This  guidance  should  support  Member 
States in (further) streamlining and expediting permitting procedures for renewable hydrogen projects. 
Furthermore, the European Clean Hydrogen Alliance is working to deliver industry recommendations 
and best practices to accelerate the authorisation procedures for hydrogen projects to be presented at 
the June 2022 Hydrogen Forum.  

Europe’s world leadership in clean hydrogen technologies can only be maintained through increased 
research and innovation efforts at both EU and national level. The Clean Hydrogen Partnership under 
Horizon Europe is raising the ambition with an EU support of EUR 1 billion for the period 2021-2027, 
complemented by at least an equivalent amount of private investment (from the private members of 
the partnership), bringing the total budget to above EUR 2 billion. 

The Commission provides technical support to Member States for the implementation of REPowerEU, 
including  for  the  enhanced  roll-out  of  renewable  hydrogen  and  hydrogen  solutions  for  industry. 
Emphasizing the additional fresh water needs that correspond to the enhanced roll-out of renewable 
hydrogen52  production,  compliance  with  the  Water  Framework  Directive  is  of  key  importance  in 
choosing the location for the roll-out of additional production capacities. 

To enable scaling up demand and supply of renewable hydrogen in Europe, the Commission envisages 
working  closely  with  Member  States  and  stakeholders  in  a  structured  way  to  understand  the 

of 

2022, 

50 European Commission Communication: REPowerEU: Joint European Action for more affordable, secure and sustainable 
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:71767319-9f0a-11ec-83e1-
8  March 
energy 
01aa75ed71a1.0001.02/DOC_1&format=PDF 
51 Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive (EU) 2018/2001 of the 
European Parliament and of the Council as regards the promotion of energy from renewable sources, COM (2022)222 
Commission Recommendation on speeding up permit-granting procedures for renewable energy projects and facilitate 
Power Purchase Agreements, C(2022) 3219, SWD(2022) 149 
52 Around 20 l of water is needed per Kg of H2. 

29 

 
 
                                                           
developments and barriers to the scale up of hydrogen use on the ground. The temporary Hydrogen 
Platform  could  scope  topics  related  to  market  operation  and  to  technical  questions  (e.g.  capacity 
allocation, balancing, cyber security, interoperability, quality standards) as proposed in the hydrogen 
and gas markets decarbonisation package.  

2. 

Scaling up the development of hydrogen infrastructure in the EU  

A rapid development of energy infrastructure that connects supply and demand is a key ingredient for 
the  envisaged  acceleration  of  hydrogen  production  and  use  in  the  EU  and  beyond.  This  concerns 
transport  via  pipelines,  as  well  as  non-network  based  options  using,  for  example,  adapted 
LNG terminals, and storage.    

The revised TEN-E Regulation, entering into force in June 2022, is a unique instrument for European 
energy infrastructure planning.  It  enables  a coordinated and timely development  of trans-European 
hydrogen networks, by selecting key infrastructure projects of cross-border relevance based on a robust 
methodology,  in  line  with  EU  policy  objectives,  including  hydrogen  pipelines,  storage  facilities, 
electrolysers and hydrogen terminals, covering as well hydrogen embedded in other chemicals. The 
stepped-up  renewable  hydrogen  ambition  also  requires  the  identification  of  a  limited  number  of 
hydrogen  import  pipelines  in  that  context.  For  reaching  our  long-term  decarbonisation  goals,  it  is 
crucial to ensure that new natural gas infrastructure needed today to become independent from Russian 
gas imports avoids lock-in into longer-term fossil imports. To support the development of hydrogen 
infrastructure priorities, the European Commission  will work with stakeholders to identify possible 
challenges for European hydrogen infrastructure development and implementation. Based on the TEN-
E Regulation, starting early this autumn, the Commission together with the Member States, national 
regulatory authorities, the European Agency for the Coordination of Energy regulators (ACER), the 
European  Network  of  Transmission  System  Operators  for  Gas  (ENTSOG),  promoters  and  other 
stakeholders,  will  discuss  trans-European  hydrogen  infrastructure  needs.  Work  will  be  organised 
within three hydrogen priority corridors. This step will be followed by a cost-benefit assessment of 
candidate hydrogen projects expected to be submitted by early October 2022. The process will deliver 
preliminary hydrogen infrastructure needs by March 2023. The first list of infrastructure Projects of 
Common  Interest  (PCI)  between  Member  States,  and  Projects  of  Mutual  Interest  (PMI),  between 
Member States and third countries, will be in place by the fourth quarter of 2023. The upscaling of the 
hydrogen transport infrastructure will mainly rely on repurposed pipelines, complemented by newly 
built ones. This will be prepared by assessment of which gas infrastructure will become available for 
such repurposing. 

The European Clean Hydrogen Alliance identified a pipeline of over 750 investment projects that its 
members indicated to undertake by 2030. Projects are located in almost all EU Member States and 
include  the  production  of  hydrogen  (projects  for  the  installation  of  over  50  GW  electrolysers), 
transportation and its usage by industry, mobility applications, energy systems and in buildings.  The 
European hydrogen industry estimates a need of around 120 GW of electrolyser capacity in the EU by 
2030,  which  would  suffice  to  meet  the  objective  of  producing  10  million  tonnes  of  renewable 
hydrogen. 

With  its  Communication  on  Important  Projects  of  Common  European  Interest  (IPCEI),  the 
Commission has set out criteria under which Member States can grant state aid to transnational projects 
of strategic significance for the EU under Article 107(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the 

30 

 
 
European Union (TFEU). The Commission is in close contact with all interested Member States and 
facilitating the  coordination  between  Member  States  towards  IPCEIs  in  the  area  of  new  hydrogen 
related  technologies  and  infrastructure.  The  Guidelines  on  State  aid  for  climate,  environmental 
protection and energy (CEEAG) and the state aid general block exemption Regulation (GBER) provide 
additional  important  EU  frameworks  under  which  Member  States  may  allocate  financial  aid  to 
infrastructure projects. 

The  consumption  of  20  million  tonnes  of  renewable  hydrogen  will  also  require  accelerated 
investments in hydrogen infrastructure to bring renewable hydrogen production in areas with high 
renewable energy resources to the end-consumers. The development of port infrastructure and their 
connection  to  both  industrial  and  transport  users  in  the  vicinity  will  be  of  critical  importance. 
Therefore,  the  Commission  considers  as  crucial  support  for  the  development  of  necessary  port 
infrastructures to receive imports of hydrogen, including in the form of renewable ammonia and other 
renewable hydrogen by-products.  

Many EU financing sources could be relevant for European hydrogen infrastructure projects, ranging 
from  the  RRF  as  a  performance-based  instrument,  the  Connecting  Europe  Facility  (programme 
specifically dedicated to cross-border infrastructure), the InvestEU Programme, the Innovation Fund, 
the Life Programme and programmes under shared management such as  ERDF, including Interreg, 
the  Cohesion  Fund,  Modernisation  Fund  and  Just  Transition  Fund. Estimates  for  the  necessary 
investments  for  hydrogen  infrastructure  vary  significantly.  To  promote  investments  in  hydrogen 
infrastructure in a cross-border, interregional and transnational context, the Commission, together with 
Member States, builds on cooperation frameworks such as the EU macro-regional strategies. 

A Commission estimate of investment needs for key hydrogen infrastructure categories by 2030 points 
to about € 50 – 75 bn for electrolysers,  € 28 – 38 bn for EU-internal pipelines and € 6  – 11 bn EUR 
for storage. Related additional funding needs for cross-border hydrogen infrastructure could require 
increasing the budget available for CEF Energy by 2 bn EUR. 

3. 

Stepping  up  our  international  engagement  on  hydrogen  to  scale  up  renewable 
hydrogen imports  

As set out in the EU external energy engagement strategy adopted on 18 May 202253, cooperation with 
third countries is essential, both to accelerate their energy transition, including the transformation and 
decarbonisation of their energy systems, while enhancing their energy security, as well as to import 
hydrogen to the EU. International  renewable hydrogen cooperation should follow a comprehensive 
approach supporting partner countries in their energy transition notably by supporting the deployment 
of  renewable  energy  sources.  These  renewable  energy  sources  must  benefit  in  priority  local 
populations, in particular in countries where access to electricity is not generalised, while avoiding 
increasing  water  stress  in  third  countries  to  produce  hydrogen  by  electrolysis,  a  water-intensive 
technology. 

A clear focus should be on renewable hydrogen, both for the domestic market and for export to the 
EU, as well as on strengthened cooperation with all partners on regulatory issues. This should include 
in particular certification in accordance with the EU requirements for import to the EU and full life 

53 EU external energy engagement in a changing world, JOIN(2022) 23. 

31 

 
 
                                                           
cycle GHG emissions approaches, to ensure a level playing field with renewable hydrogen produced 
in  the  EU.  Geographically,  the  focus  should  be  on  the  EU  neighbourhood  while  establishing 
partnerships with other potential suppliers in the Southern Neighbourhood, Sub-Saharan Africa, the 
Middle-East, the Gulf, Chile, but also the US and Australia. Studies indicate that until 2030 the imports 
of hydrogen to the EU are most cost efficient via pipelines from the neighbourhood and in the form of 
ammonia through ships over longer distances. To support such developments, the Commission could 
facilitate  coordinated  EU  action  in  cooperation  with  industry  to  develop  by  2030  three  major 
import/hydrogen corridors to North Africa, to the North Sea area and as soon as conditions allow to 
Ukraine.  

The  situation  we  face  today  offers  an  opportunity  to  address  existing  vulnerabilities  in  our  energy 
security.  The  current  situation  in  the  gas  market  demonstrates  how  third  country  governments  can 
impact EU energy prices simply by limiting the free flow of energy goods. The Commission’s aim is 
to  reinforce  its  partnerships  with  reliable  third  countries  to  ensure  open  and  undistorted  trade  and 
investment relations for renewable and low carbon fuels, preventing distortions in these future markets. 
This will strengthen our energy security as our respective economies transition to these new energy 
goods. 

To support the creation of a regulatory framework for renewable hydrogen partnerships, facilitate EU-
wide coordination on international hydrogen projects and incentivise European and global renewable 
hydrogen production, the Global European Hydrogen Facility should be established in cooperation 
with the Member States. The Global European Hydrogen Facility should create investment security 
and, hence, business opportunities for European and Global renewable hydrogen production, and, at 
the same time, reliable supply and transparency for European hydrogen usage. The Global European 
Hydrogen Facility should be coherent with intra-EU measures and market functioning. 

The Green Hydrogen Partnerships promote the import of renewable hydrogen from third countries 
and  should  incentivise  decarbonisation  and  the  development  of  renewable  energy  production  for 
domestic use in the partner countries, while encompassing policy dialogue, including on sustainability 
standards.  Together  the  Green  Hydrogen  Partnerships  and  the  Global  European  Hydrogen  Facility 
should deliver a framework to ensure that partnerships established by the Members States and by the 
industry provide a level-playing field between EU production and third country imports, and that these 
partnerships  are  not  set  up  in  isolation.  At  the  same  time,  such  EU  level  coordination  should  be 
complementary  to  the  activities  of  Member  States  and  industry,  such  as  the  many  agreements  and 
Memoranda  of  Understanding  that  they  concluded  with  international  partners  on  hydrogen 
development, innovation, transport and potential import.   

The  EU  takes  a  leading  role  in  international  cooperation  on  renewable  hydrogen  research  and 
innovation through Mission Innovation, the global initiative to accelerate efforts in renewable energy 
innovation.  Under  Mission  Innovation,  the  European  Commission  co-leads  the  Clean  Hydrogen 
mission  that  aims  at  reducing  the  costs  of  hydrogen  and  to  develop  at  least  100  hydrogen  valleys 
worldwide by 2030. 

32 

 
 
 
 
 
4. 

Conclusions:  

Based on the above  

  The  Commission  considers  developing  regular  progress  reports,  starting  in  2025,  on  the 

production, transport and uptake of renewable hydrogen in industry and transport.    

  Based on the EU Strategy for Standardisation of February 2022, a mandate for the development 
of harmonised standards for the quality of hydrogen to support its uptake in the priority sectors 
will be prepared.  

  The Commission stands ready to provide further guidance on applicable rules and procedures 
for the construction and operation of future infrastructure dedicated to the production storage 
and transport of pure hydrogen. This would support Member States in expediting and (further) 
streamlining permitting procedures for hydrogen projects.  

  The  hydrogen  and  gas  markets  decarbonisation  package  provides  for  a  Hydrogen  Platform, 
which  would  enable  scoping  hydrogen  market  operation  and  technical  issues  as  a  first  step 
towards setting up the European Network of Hydrogen Network Operators.  

  Based on the TEN-E Regulation, the Commission will cooperate closely with stakeholders to 
ensure the development of European hydrogen infrastructure priorities via the TEN-E process, 
leading to needs identification by March 2023 and a first list of Projects of Common Interest 
and Projects of Mutual Interest by end 2023.   

  To  enable  increased  renewable  hydrogen  imports,  the  Global  European  Hydrogen  Facility 
should be established in cooperation with the Member States. The Facility should be coherent 
with  intra-EU  measures  and  market  functioning  as  well  as  our  trade  and  investment  policy 
objectives  to  support  the  creation  of  a  regulatory  framework  for  renewable  hydrogen 
partnerships,  facilitate  EU-wide  coordination  on  international  hydrogen  projects  and 
incentivise European and global renewable hydrogen production. 

  Double  the  number  of  hydrogen  valleys  by  2025  through  topping  up  Horizon  Europe 
investments on the Hydrogen Joint Undertaking to offer solutions with citizens’ engagement, 
in regional innovation ecosystems, cutting across the entire hydrogen value chain. 

33 

 
 
5.  ACHIEVING THE BIOMETHANE TARGETS 

This section explores the actions that could be envisaged to achieve the target of 35 bcm annual biomethane production by 2030 as set out in the 
REPowerEU Communication54 of March 2022. Therefore, the proposed actions would aim at both supporting production to a sustainable maximum 
potential volume of biogas with the aim to further upgrade it to biomethane, as well as direct biomethane production from waste and residues. The 
actions could also aim at creating the preconditions for sustainable upgrading and safe injection of biomethane into the gas grid. The production 
of sustainable biomethane should be waste-based, avoiding the use of food and feed feedstocks that would lead to land use change problems. In 
addition, by 2024, Member States have to collect separately organic waste, which can be valorised in anaerobic digestors. This is an opportunity 
to upscale the production of biogas and biomethane sustainably, creating income opportunities for farmers and foresters.   

Area of action 

Type of action 

Content 

Promote the 
sustainable 
production and use of 
biogas and 
biomethane at EU and 
national/ regional 
level and the injection 
of biomethane into the 
gas grid 

1.  Create a biogas 
and biomethane 
industrial 
partnership/ forum 
promoting their 
sustainable 
production and 
use  

The overarching goal of the partnership/ forum is to 
support  the  achievement  of  the  EU  target  on 
biomethane  production  for  2030  and  to  create  the 
preconditions  for  a  further  ramp  up  of  its  potential 
towards  2050 
involvement  of 
through  closer 
stakeholders.  

The partnership would create a platform for strategic 
discussion  among  key  stakeholders  along  the  whole 
value chain on how to best support the production and 
use  of  biogas  and  biomethane.  This  would  promote 
stakeholder  engagement  and  public  acceptance.  The 
partnership  would  provide  effective  support  for 
identifying, further developing and mainstreaming of 
best  practices  in  policy  making  and  support  to  the 
production of biogas and biomethane, and related to 
and 
infrastructure  development,  projects 
that 
and  promotion.  The 
infrastructure 

financing 

Possible actors  

EC, MS, industry 
representatives, 
NGOs, ETIP 
Bioenergy, 
representatives of 
primary 
producers  

54 COM(2022)108 final. 

34 

 
 
                                                           
Area of action 

Type of action 

Content 

Possible actors  

2.  Develop national 
strategies on 
sustainable biogas 
and biomethane 
production and 
use or integrate a 
biogas and 
biomethane 
component in the 
National Energy 
and Climate Plans 
(NECPs)   

MS, EC 

partnership could also discuss policy gaps at EU level 
and  identify  support  needs  as  regards  infrastructure 
and RND&I projects.  

In  this  endeavour,  the  platform  should  take  into 
consideration  and  create  synergies  with  ongoing 
complementary  work,  in  particular  the  work  of  the 
European  Technology  and  Innovation  Platform 
Bioenergy (ETIP Bioenergy), the SET Plan Action 8 
Integrated Workgroup on Bioenergy and Renewable 
Fuels (IWG 8) and international cooperation.   

The aim of such national strategies would be to assess 
the Member States’ national potentials for biogas and 
biomethane  production  and  the  effective  integration 
of  the  latter  into  the  grid.  The  strategies  should 
provide  a  trajectory  to  reach  the  identified  national 
potentials by 2030 and 2050.  

The  development  of  the  national  strategies  should 
focus on the most sustainable paths, based on waste-
based production (e.g. agricultural and agro-industry 
waste  and  residues,  forest  and  forest-industry  waste 
and  residues,  food  industry  waste,  energy  and 
chemical industry biogenic CO2 effluents and waste, 
industrial  wastewater,  domestic  organic  waste),  and 
the evaluation of the preconditions to further promote 
the  potential  of  sustainable  biomass  coming  from 
sequential  or  cover  cropping  or  other  innovative 
sources of biomass including from marginal lands and 

35 

 
 
Area of action 

Type of action 

Content 

Possible actors  

contaminated lands through phytoremediation and the 
related 
technology  development  needs.  This 
assessment should be done by taking into account the 
cascading principle of Article 3(3) of the proposal for 
a revised Directive (EU) 2018/2001 (RED II)55. The 
promotion  of  sustainable  waste-based  biogas  and 
biomethane  production  would  contribute  to  the 
objective of cutting methane emissions in line with the 
Waste  to  Energy  communication  of  201756  and  the 
Methane Strategy of 202057.  

The  national  strategies  should  evaluate  any  barriers 
for the production or injection of the biomethane into 
the  grid  in  the  national  or  regional  context  and 
integrate actions for lifting these barriers. They should 
further  evaluate  the  standardisation  needs  and  the 
need  for  harmonization  of  market  regulation  with 
other Member States. 

Such national strategies should be closely linked with 
the  integrated  National  Energy  and  Climate  Plans 
under  Regulation  (EU)  2018/1999,  and  progress  in 
achieving the strategy and its contribution to national 
and  Union  targets  should  be  reported  as  part  of  the 
biennial reporting under Regulation (EU) 2018/1999.  

55 COM(2021) 557 final. 
56 COM(2017) 034 final. 
57 COM(2020) 663 final. 

36 

 
 
                                                           
Area of action 

Type of action 

Content 

Possible actors  

3.  Consider 

broadening the 
scope of the fuel 
supply obligation 
in the Renewable 
Energy Directive  

4.  Promote 

participatory 
multi-stakeholder 
engagement  

The national biogas and biomethane strategies should 
be reflected in the national Recovery and Resilience 
Plans (RRPs), in coordination with support envisaged 
in other strategic planning documents (e.g. Common 
Agriculture  Policy  National  Strategic  plans  or 
National  programming  documents  for  EU  structural 
funds). 

The  Commission  can  support  Member  States  in  the 
development and implementation of these strategies, 
including through the Technical Support Instrument. 

Biomethane  is  currently  eligible  to  be  used  as  a 
renewable  transport  fuel  under  the  fuel  supply 
obligation  set  out  in  Article  25  of  the  Renewable 
Energy  Directive.  While  maintaining  the  primary 
focus  of  the  supply  obligation,  its  scope  could  be 
increased to cover all uses of biomethane. This option 
should be further looked at and could be considered in 
a future revision of the Renewable Energy Directive. 

A  number  of  events,  in  particular  conferences, 
workshops and trainings, would be organised to raise 
awareness, provide training and technical assistance, 
and  promote  multi-stakeholder  involvement  in  a 
regional/  local  dimension  in  implementing  and 
promoting European cross-border integrated projects, 
as  for  example  Integrated  Projects  of  Common 
European Interest (IPCEIs).  

37 

EC, MS 

EC, MS, NGOs, 
Industry, local 
authorities  

 
 
Area of action 

Type of action 

Content 

Possible actors  

The  Commission  might  consider  the  option  of 
developing  an  EU  strategy  for  energy  transition  in 
rural areas as a tool to support the implementation of 
such integrated energy solutions in rural areas, taking 
advantage  of  numerous  decentralized  small  biogas 
plants operating in the EU and integrating them in the 
overall  renewable  energy  mix,  by  also  addressing 
related environmental and social aspects. The existing 
local  infrastructure  such  as  the  development  and 
implementation  of  Local  Development  strategies 
(supported  through  rural  development  funds  of  the 
Common  Agriculture  Policy  or  structural  and 
cohesion policy as relevant, e.g. through Community 
Led Local Development) and of farmers’ cooperative 
structure  could  be  used.  In  addition,  other  multi-
stakeholder  structures,  such  as  energy  communities, 
could be used; the work in this area should build on 
the Rural Energy Community Advisory Hub. 

The concept of developing urban-rural linkages would 
be looked at by trying to enhance synergies between 
policy  support  in  both  areas  (e.g.  EU  and  national 
support in rural and regional development by among 
others  further  encouraging  Member  States  and 
relevant  authorities 
to  boost  complementarities 
between the EU’s rural development funds on the one 
hand and structural or cohesion policy funding on the 
other hand and thereby pooling rural development and 
structural and cohesion policy resources).  

38 

 
 
Area of action 

Type of action 

Content 

5.  Reduce red tape 
and speeding up 
permitting  

6.  Promote 

sustainable biogas 
and biomethane 
co-operation with 
neighbouring and 
enlargement 
countries 

1.  Reduce the costs 
for economic 
operators, which 
currently prevent 
biogas upgrading 
into biomethane  

All issues that currently delay the process, including 
increasing the capacity in local municipalities dealing 
with permitting as well as streamline good practices 
as establishing one-stop shops for biomethane related 
permits and defining a maximum processing time for 
permitting  applications  should  be  assessed,  in  line 
with the permitting legislative proposal adopted by the 
Commission on 18 May 202258.   

Biogas  and  biomethane  development 
in  EU 
neighbourhood and enlargement countries, including 
through the EU-Ukraine renewable gases partnership 
and  in  co-operation  with  the  Energy  Community, 
should be supported. Further explore the possibility of 
joint  projects  between  Member  States  and  partner 
countries  as  RED  II  currently  limits  joint  projects 
between EU and third countries to electricity. 

The action  would  look  into  the high  costs of biogas 
upgrading  as  a  barrier  of  entry  for  individual 
economic  operators  into  the  biomethane  production. 
Part  of  these  costs  are  the  costs  of  upgrading,  grid 
connection and grid injection. When it comes to the 
costs related to grid connection, a more proportionate 
scenario  for  cost  sharing  of  such  costs  should  be 

Provide incentives for 
biogas upgrading into 
biomethane 

Possible actors  

MS, EC 

EC, UA, EnC 

EC, MS, NRAs, 
TSOs/DSOs 

58  Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive (EU) 2018/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards 
the promotion of energy from renewable sources, COM (2022)222. 

39 

 
 
                                                           
Area of action 

Type of action 

Content 

Possible actors  

considered.  The  lifting  of  injection  costs  is  already 
part of the hydrogen and gas markets decarbonisation 
package of December 202159.  

The content of existing promotion schemes at national 
level  for  electricity  production  from  biogas  should 
also  be  reviewed  to  focus  on  support  for  biogas 
upgrading. In this context, the benefits of developing 
take-off agreement tools or other incentives, to ensure 
that  there  are  long-term  benefits  for  biogas  plants 
currently  providing  electricity  to  be  converted  into 
biomethane  plants  as  well  as  for  new  biomethane 
investments, should be considered. This would bridge 
the price gap with natural gas and would provide an 
understanding 
term 
investors 
longer 
transitional  ones  and 
investments  beyond  only 
contribute  to  the  creation  of  a  stable  policy  and 
investment framework. 

for 

to 

Promote the 
adaptation and 
adjustment of existing 
and the deployment of 
new infrastructure for 
the transport of 
increased shares of 
biomethane through 
the EU gas grid  

1.  Carry out regional 
assessment of 
network 
development and 
matching it with 
the potential of 
sustainable 
biomethane 
production  

59 COM(2021) 803 final and COM(2021) 804 final. 

This action would tackle issues related to the network 
capacity  development  in  the  Member  States  and  at 
regional level. The outcome should be an assessment 
of  the  network  development  needs,  matching  them 
with the potential of increased biogas and biomethane 
production  derived  from  the  national  biogas  and 
biomethane  strategies.  The  analysis  should  be 
undertaken  by  the  distribution  system  operators 

MS, TSOs and 
DSOs (in 
particular for 
gas), NRAs, 
ACER 

40 

 
 
                                                           
Area of action 

Type of action 

Content 

Possible actors  

(DSOs),  in  coordination  with  transmission  system 
operators (TSOs) and national regulatory authorities.  

As a result, regional maps with the highest potential 
for  biogas  and  biomethane  production  due  to  the 
availability  of  raw  materials  (i.e.  waste/  residues), 
existing  operating  biogas  plants  and  current 
connection capacity should be established.  

This  action  should  take  into  account  the  permitting 
legislative proposal adopted by the Commission on 18 
May  2022, 
the  mapping  and 
identification  of  ‘renewables  go-to  areas’  as  regards 
biogas and biomethane production plants. 

in  particular 

2.  Assess challenges, 
bottlenecks and 
other possible 
measures from the 
infrastructure 
perspective for 
cost-efficient 
deployment of 
biomethane 

National  (regulatory)  authorities,  TSOs  and  DSOs 
should  assess  potential  investment  challenges  to 
increase  the  uptake  of  biomethane  and  connect 
decentralised  production  sites  with  consumption 
centres over large distances. 

TSOs  and  DSOs  should  assess  the  capacity  and 
potential cost of injection of biomethane and how to 
streamline planning and coordination among them as 
regards the integration of biomethane.  

MS, gas TSOs 
and DSOs, 
NRAs, ACER, 
TEN-E smart gas 
grid thematic area 
group 

In  addition,  national  (regulatory)  authorities,  TSOs 
and  DSOs  should  in  the  framework  of  the  TEN-E 
smart  gas  grids  thematic  area  group  identify  and 
assess candidate projects for the future lists of Projects 

41 

 
 
Area of action 

Type of action 

Content 

Possible actors  

3.  Address gas 
quality 
standardisation 
issues  

Address RND&I gaps 

1.  Provide further 
support to the 
development of 
innovative 
technologies for 
the production of 
sustainable biogas 
and biomethane  

of Common Interest (PCI) in line with the criteria of 
the TEN–E Regulation. 

Barriers exist today preventing or at least hampering 
cross-border  flows  of  biomethane.  The  problem  is 
related  to  the  uncoordinated  application  of  existing 
CEN  gas  quality  standards  across  borders  (e.g. 
accepted level of oxygen content).  

Based  on  the  analysis  in  the  national  strategies  and 
work on European level, the Commission supports the 
update of the CEN gas quality standard to ensure the 
cross-border  flow  of  biomethane  (in  addition  to  the 
strengthened 
coordination 
cross-border  quality 
provisions proposed in the Hydrogen and Gas Markets 
Decarbonisation  Package  of  December  2021)  while 
ensuring the protection of sensitive end-users.   

Continue  supporting  innovative  technologies  for  the 
production  of  sustainable  biomethane  based  on 
gasification of biogenic residues and wastes from all 
sectors  and  industries,  biogenic  CO2  effluents  and 
waste,  organic  part  of  industrial  waste  waters  and 
municipal sludge, as well as feedstock from marginal 
and contaminated lands through phytoremediation60.  

MS, EC, CEN 
standardisation 
committee  

EC, MS 

focus  should  be  given 

Special 
improving 
technological  efficiency  and  cost  effectiveness  of 
small-scale solutions that would not hamper EU food 

to 

60 I.e. any technology readiness level (TRL) before commercialisation from 3 to 7. 

42 

 
 
                                                           
Area of action 

Type of action 

Content 

Possible actors  

2.  Provide further 
support to 
innovative 
technologies for 
the upgrade of 
sustainable biogas 
to biomethane 

and feed production, as well as to environmental and 
socio-economic 
for 
sustainability  and 
alternative  materials61  where  today  scarcity  might 
block scaling up. 

looking 

Continue  supporting  innovative  non-commercialised 
and  small-scale  technologies  for  biogas  upgrading, 
including the biological or catalytic conversion of the 
biogenic  CO2  in  the  biogas  to  biomethane,  with 
synergies  with  renewable  hydrogen  production  and 
use. Special focus should be given to increasing cost 
effectiveness and efficiency of small-scale upgrading 
technology (i.e. upgrading technology for small-scale 
biomethane production) building on UBI project62. 

3.  Provide further 
support to 
innovative 
solutions and 
research on 
barriers and 
integration of 
sustainable 
biomethane to the 
gas grid  

This  action  should  focus  on  integrating  results  from 
previous research projects (e.g. Horizon 2020 project 
REGATRACE  on  a  pan-European  methane  grid 
access  action  plan  and  project  BIOSURF  on 
methodologies  and  guidelines  for  certification  and 
registration of biomethane) as well as organising calls 
on outstanding issues regarding barriers and enablers 
to  the  deployment  of  biomethane.  The  barriers 
identified  in  the  national  plans  should  be  taken  into 
account and serve as a basis for future research work.  

EC, MS 

EC, MS 

61  A  portfolio  of  about  20  Horizon  2020  projects  adding-up  to  M€  120  can  provide  information  on  innovative  bio-methane  production  technologies  and  on  barriers  and 
integration of bio-methane into the gas grid. In addition, the 2021 Horizon Europe Call provides a top-up for the innovative bio-methane production topic to support 5 projects 
of about M€ 50 using reserve-list budget. 

62 H2020 project on Biological Integral Biogas Upgrading 

43 

 
 
                                                           
Possible actors  

EC, MS 

Area of action 

Type of action 

Content 

4.  Further support 
the expansion of 
the sustainable 
biomass potential 
to ensure 
availability of 
resources for 
reaching the 
biomethane 
production target  

the 
This  action  should  seek  ways 
sustainable biomass feedstock for achieving the 2030 
target  for  biomethane  without  hampering  food 
security.  

to  enlarge 

identify 

It  would 
regions  where  biomethane 
production can be sustainably increased from locally 
sourced secondary feedstock (crop residues, manure, 
organic  waste)  and  from  additional  sustainably 
produced biomass from sequential or cover cropping 
or biomass from marginal and contaminated lands63, 
boosting  regional  bioeconomy  development  and 
decentralized  renewable  energy  development  and 
deployment. For sequential crops and cover crops, the 
impact on the cultivation of e.g. green manure and the 
subsequent  use  of  mineral  fertilizer,  should  be 
considered. A case-by-case analysis of the economic, 
social  and  environmental  factors  for  the  use  of  a 
particular  area  for  the  production  of  sustainable 
feedstock should be undertaken as well.    

this  action 

Furthermore, 
the 
development of other innovative sources of biomass 
including aquatic. 

support 

should 

63 H2020 projects FORBIO, BIOPLAT and MAGIC, GOLD and TELEGRAM can provide information on the distribution of such lands, innovative crop growing and utilization 
methods, case studies, policy recommendations on sustainable growing and utilization of crops on marginal lands and phytoremediation technologies for growing and using 
crops on contaminated lands. 

44 

 
 
 
                                                           
Area of action 

Type of action 

Content 

Access to finance 

1.  Provide access to  
grants and loans 

2.  Innovation Fund 

i.e.  rural  development  funds  under 

Provide access to grants and loans from existing EU 
funds, 
the 
Common Agriculture Policy, structural and cohesion 
policy funds, National Resilience and Recovery Plans, 
Horizon  Europe,  Innovation  and  Modernisation 
Funds,  LIFE  funding,  and  other  national  funding  in 
line with State aid rules. In particular, Member States 
and  stakeholders  can  use  the  opportunities  of  the 
current  and  future  programming  of  the  Common 
Agriculture  Policy  and  of  the  cohesion  policy  to 
include,  where  relevant,  support  to  biogas  and 
biomethane  in  their  programmes  and  strategies  (e.g. 
also through financial instruments). 

The  funding  under  Horizon  Europe  should  be 
increased by reallocating resources freed up by non-
participation of UK partners in the next calls to new 
biomethane topics (e.g. unlocking community energy 
potential to support market uptake of biomethane). 

Innovative  production  and  use  of  biomethane  and 
biogas  projects  can  apply  for  the  Innovation  Fund 
financing.  Further  support  for 
innovative  pre-
commercial  projects  (above-mentioned  technologies 
and others)  is  being considered in  the  Fund through 
frontloading  and  extending  the  type  of  support  to 
competitive bidding. 

45 

Possible actors  

EC, MS, EIB 

EC, EIB 

 
 
Possible actors  

EC, EIB 

Area of action 

Type of action 

Content 

3.  Access to other 

financial 
instruments 

Develop and provide access to financial instruments 
(e.g. EIB with InvestEU support). Further increase the 
targeted support for pre-commercial plants under EIB 
and InvestEU.  

InvestEU 

The EIB Group already launched financial products to 
finance  innovative  and  green  investments.  Existing 
financial  products  under 
to  support 
investments  contributing  to  REPowerEU    goals 
(renewable  energies;  energy  efficiency;  hydrogen; 
decarbonisation of industry and support of innovative 
green companies) can be scaled-up if further resources 
for  risk-taking  are  provided  to  InvestEU,  thus 
mobilising additional private finance for REPowerEU 
purposes. 

46 

 
 
 
6.  LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES 

Table 1: Potential measures and investments to reduce dependence on Russian gas by technology, in 
addition to the Fit-for-55 package .................................................................................................................... 6 
Table 2: Estimated Russian gas import reductions from some short-term measures ............................... 14 
Table 3: Estimated oil savings from behavioural measures ........................................................................ 14 
Table 4: Investment by 2030 for reaching the RePowerEU objectives ....................................................... 16 
Table 5: Natural gas use by industrial sector in 2030 (bcm), ....................................................................... 19 
Table 6: Oil use by industrial sector in 2030 (Mtoe) .................................................................................... 20 
Table 7: Coal use by industrial sector in 2030 (Mtoe) .................................................................................. 20 
Table 8: Hydrogen use by sector in 2030 (kt hydrogen) .............................................................................. 21 
Table 9: Renewables in RePowerEU scenario .............................................................................................. 22 
Table 10: Energy consumption in final demand sectors (Mtoe).................................................................. 25 

Figure 1: Gross inland consumption by fuel in 2019 and in 2030 in the Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU 
scenarios (Mtoe) ............................................................................................................................................... 12 
Figure 2: Final energy consumption by fuel in 2019 and 2030 in the Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU 
scenarios (Mtoe) ............................................................................................................................................... 13 
Figure 3: Net installed power capacity in REPowerEU in 2030 (GWe) ..................................................... 24 
Figure 4: Hydrogen use by sector in 2030 ..................................................................................................... 27 

47 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7.  ANNEX ON PRICE TRAJECTORIES BETWEEN 2020 AND 2050 FOR GAS, OIL AND COAL 

Figure 2 shows the price trajectories between 2020 and 2050 for gas, oil and coal. Oil and coal prices are based 
on  historical  data  for  2020-2021,  combined  with estimates  of  prices in  2022  and  complemented  by  a linear 
interpolation to the long-term trajectory assumed in the EU Reference Scenario 2020 for the following years. 
The same approach is followed for gas prices except that these are expected to remain higher than in the Fit-
for-55-scenario in the long run. 

Figure 2: Fuel price trajectories used for REPowerEU and Fit-for-55 analysis 

48