Drought in western Mediterranean : GDO analytical report : February 2022.
Date: 2022-03-28
Institutions: Joint Research Centre
Subjects: Mediterranean region (EU), atmospheric conditions, drought, economic consequence, environmental impact, environmental indicator, farming sector, hydroelectric power, hydrology, land use, research report, social impact, water supply

Drought in western Mediterranean 
February 2022 

GDO Analytical Report 

2022 

EUR 31026 EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to 
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Contact information  
Name: Andrea Toreti  
Address: Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 ISPRA (VA), Italy 
Email : Andrea.TORETI@ec.europa.eu 

EU Science Hub 
https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/ 

JRC128743 

EUR 31026 EN 

PDF 

ISBN 978-92-76-49493-5 

ISSN 1831-9424 

doi:10.2760/927611 

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2022 

© European Union 2022  

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All content © European Union 2022, except: Figures 23-25 (source: IPMA); Figures 26-33 (source: APA)  

How to cite this report: Toreti, A., Bavera, D., Cammalleri, C., Cota, T., de Jager, A., Deus, R., Di Ciollo, C., Maetens, W., Magni, D., Masante, D., 
Mazzeschi, M., McCormick, N., Pires, V. C., Quadrado, M. F., Saramago, M. M., Spinoni, J., Drought in western Mediterranean February 2022, EUR 
31026  EN,  Publications  Office  of  the European Union,  Luxembourg,  2022,  ISBN  978-92-76-49493-5  (online),  doi:10.2760/927611  (online), 
JRC128743. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in western Mediterranean February 2022 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

Contents 

Executive summary ........................................................................................................................ 1 

Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) ........................................................................ 1 

Precipitation .................................................................................................................................... 5 

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) ......................................................................................... 10 

Soil moisture anomaly .................................................................................................................. 16 

fAPAR anomaly ............................................................................................................................. 18 

Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) ............................................................................................... 20 

Seasonal forecast ......................................................................................................................... 21 

Focus on Portugal ......................................................................................................................... 22 

Reported impacts .......................................................................................................................... 28 

Glossary of terms and acronyms ................................................................................................. 33 

GDO indicators versioning: ........................................................................................................... 34 

Distribution: ................................................................................................................................... 34 

List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... 35 

Authors: ......................................................................................................................................... 37 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Drought in western Mediterranean February 2022 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

Executive summary 

  A large and severe drought has been affecting the western Euro-Mediterranean region. Dry 
conditions in the Iberian Peninsula are related to an acute lack of precipitation in the first 
two months of 2022, preceded by a substantial deficit in the last months of 2021. Over the 
coastal  regions of northern Africa and over Andalucía the drought can be  attributed to a 
longer  period of below-average precipitation, most likely overlapping with the  recent and 
intense drought event. 

  The vegetation response in the region still shows better than normal conditions, thanks to a 
slightly  warmer  than  usual  winter  season.  However,  the  lack  of  precipitation  may  cause 
severe impacts in spring and summer. In northern Africa, the persistent drought conditions 
already caused bad vegetation conditions. 

  The severe precipitation deficit is already posing a threat to water resources and livestock, 
while heavy impacts on crops and reservoir storage are expected if the drought conditions 
will persist. 

  Severely  drier  than  normal  conditions  are  forecasted  in  the  western  Euro-Mediterranean 
region. These forecasts currently represent the main concern,  as they point to  a possible 
evolution of the ongoing drought into an extreme event. Monitoring such evolution in the 
next months is essential for risk and impact assessment. 

Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) 

The GDO indicator RDrI-Agri estimates the risk of drought impacts by considering both exposure 
and socio-economic vulnerability of an area, with a focus on agricultural impacts.   

The  meteorological  conditions,  shown  and  discussed  in  the  following  sections,  translate  into 
medium-to-high values of the RDrI-Agri at the end of January 2022 in a wide region along the 
coast of northern Africa (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia). RDrI-Agri ranges from low to medium 
values in central Portugal, central Spain, and Andalucía (Fig. 1). The high level of risk in northern 
Africa is also induced by the lower coping capacity of these countries compared to Spain and 
Portugal. Drought vulnerability in northern Africa is significantly higher due to their lower GDP 
and a larger part of their society being dependent on rain-fed agriculture.  

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Drought in western Mediterranean February 2022 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

Figure 1: Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) – first ten days of February 2022. 

The risk of drought impact (as estimated by the RDrI-Agri) developed and spread over the Iberian 
Peninsula relatively fast from November 2021 to January 2022. Over northern Africa RDrI-Agri 
features higher levels and longer persistence (Fig. 2). The estimated sharp increase in risk  is 
attributable  to  the  overall  failure  of  the  ongoing  rainy  season  from  October  2021  to  now 
(February  2022).  The  highest  values  of  RDrI-Agri  are  visible  in  northern  Africa  and  southern 
Spain, also because the previous wet season (2020/2021) was scarce in precipitation. At least 
a  close-to-average  residual  part  of  the  ongoing  rainy  season  (March-May  2022)  would  be 
needed to limit drought impacts.  

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Figure 2: Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) estimated for each 10-day period 
from the beginning of December 2021 to the end of January 2022. 

In the following paragraphs, we analyse the conditions in some of the main affected regions in 
more  detail:  Portugal  (Alentejo),  Spain  (Andalucía),  Morocco  (Oriental)  and  Algeria  (Sidi  Bel 
Abbes).  

In all these selected regions, RDrI-Agri has been increasing in extent and severity from autumn 
2021,  starting  earlier  in  North  Africa  (September-October  2021)  and  somewhat  later  in  the 
southern part of the Iberian Peninsula (November-December 2021). A higher risk is estimated 
for the northern African regions due to both the earlier start of the rainfall deficit and the higher 
vulnerability (Figs. 3, 4, 5, and 6). 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
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Figure 3: Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) – temporal evolution in Portugal 
(Alentejo) in 2021. 

Figure 4: Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) – temporal evolution in Spain 
(Andalucía) in 2021 

Figure 5: Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) – temporal evolution in Morocco 
(Oriental) in 2021 

Figure 6: Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) – temporal evolution in Algeria 
(Sidi Bel Abbes) in 2021 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Drought in western Mediterranean February 2022 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

Precipitation 

Total  monthly  precipitation  is  the  main  factor  in  understanding  and  characterising  drought 
events. The climatic conditions of the analysed regions are similar and are characterised by one 
main wet season from October to May. In the Iberian Peninsula, and especially in Portugal, the 
rainy season is more concentrated from October to February and a higher average precipitation 
is usually expected. In the other regions of the Western Mediterranean, the average precipitation 
is lower but the wet season is usually one month longer. 

In Portugal (Alentejo), the ongoing wet season has almost completely failed and since October 
2021 a continuously increasing precipitation deficit has been observed. Previous seasons were 
close to average, with no deficit in cumulative values until September 2021 (Fig. 7). 

In  Spain  (Andalucía),  March  to  June  2020  precipitation  was  close  to  average,  but  already  in 
autumn 2020 the wet season was extremely poor, resulting in an increasing deficit since October 
2020, and drastically worsened by the ongoing almost completely failed wet season (Fig. 8). 

In  Morocco  (Oriental),  the  situation  is  similar  to  the  one  in  Spain.  Variable  and  intermittent 
precipitation events have led to a less pronounced cumulative deficit, but with some dry months 
during the wet season. The ongoing wet season is almost completely dry (Figure 9). 

Finally, Algeria (Sidi Bel Abbes) shows a pattern similar to the one in Portugal, but with a more 
severe cumulative deficit. The ongoing winter wet season is lacking in precipitation as was the 
initial part of the previous one. However, spring precipitation from March to June was close to 
the average in the last two years, allowing for a partial recovery (Fig. 10). 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Figure 7: Monthly total (upper panel) and cumulative (lower panel) precipitation – temporal 
evolution in Portugal (Alentejo; 38° N, -8.3° E) from February 2020 to January 2022. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Figure 8: Monthly total (upper panel) and cumulative (lower panel) precipitation – temporal 
evolution in Spain (Andalucía; 37.6° N, -2.7° E) from February 2020 to January 2022. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Figure 9: Monthly total (upper panel) and cumulative (lower panel) precipitation – temporal 
evolution in Morocco (Oriental; 34.5° N, -2.6° E) from February 2020 to January 2022. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Figure 10: Monthly total (upper panel) and cumulative (lower panel) precipitation – temporal 
evolution in Algeria (Sidi Bel Abbes; 34.7° N, -0.5° E) from February 2020 to January 2022. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 
The  SPI1  provides  information  on  the  intensity  and  duration  of  the  precipitation  deficit  (or 
surplus). By analysing data  for different accumulation periods, the dry conditions in Portugal 
and western Spain appear to be mainly related to the January 2022 deficit, as detected by the 
SPI-1.  On  the  contrary,  over  the  coastal  regions  of  northern  Africa  and  over  the  coast  of 
Andalucía  the  drought  can  be  attributed  to  a  longer  period  of  below-average  precipitation, 
concentrated especially in October-November 2021 (Fig. 11).  

SPI-1 (one month accumulation) 

SPI-3 (three months accumulation) 

SPI-6 (six months accumulation) 
Figure 11 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-1; SPI-3; SPI-6) January 2022. 

By comparing the monthly SPI-3 maps, the onset of the drought event in the Iberian Peninsula 
can be  located in  November 2021. In April  - May 2021 (not shown here) a  quite severe dry 

1SPI is used to monitor the occurrence of drought. The lower (i.e. more negative) the SPI, the more intense is the 
drought. SPI can be computed for different accumulation periods: the 3 months period is often used to evaluate 
agricultural drought and the 12 month accumulation period can be used for hydrological drought, when rivers fall 
dry and groundwater tables lower. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Drought in western Mediterranean February 2022 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

period was completely restored by precipitation in summer/autumn. Instead, in northern Africa 
drought has persisted longer. The drought moved and expanded from Morocco (July - August 
2021) to Algeria and Tunisia (September - November 2021) and then shifted back to the west 
into Morocco and  expanded  north into the southern part of the  Iberian Peninsula  (December 
2021; Fig. 12). 

Figure 12: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) monthly maps from July 2021 to 
December 2021. 

The SPI temporal evolution over the last five years (from February 2017 to January 2022) in 
the selected regions shows differences in terms of the onset and the severity of the drought 
events. Since the end of 2021, they seem to be connected, or at least overlapping, laying the 
basis of a potentially extremely critical situation.  

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Drought in western Mediterranean February 2022 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

In Portugal, the severity of the event is moderate and the SPI is in the range of variability of the 
last five years. Since the end of summer 2021, a worsening dry sequence is detected. Shorter 
accumulation periods feature lower values of SPI, confirming that drought is at its initial status 
in  Portugal.  The  coming  months  will  determine  the  evolution  of  this  drought  event  and  the 
impacts (Fig. 13). 

Figure 13: Standardized Precipitation Index for 3-, 6- and 12-month accumulation periods 
(SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12) displaying the long-term drought evolution in Portugal (Alentejo) from 
February 2017 to January 2022. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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In Spain, the onset of the drought is detected already at the beginning of 2020. But it is by the 
end of 2020 that it becomes more severe. The SPI-3 and SPI-6 histograms show that the recent 
persistent and moderate drought is now turning into a more severe drought event (Fig. 14). The 
understanding of the dynamic link of the recent and the ongoing drought requires an in-depth 
evaluation.  

Figure 14: Standardized Precipitation Index for 3-, 6- and 12-month accumulation periods 
(SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12) displaying the long-term drought evolution in southern Spain (Andalucía) 
from February 2017 to January 2022. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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In Morocco, a sequence of at least three very severe droughts is visible by analysing the SPI-3 
and SPI-6 data. The drought is recurring on a yearly basis during failed wet seasons. The long 
accumulation  period  of  12  months  (SPI-12)  shows  how  the  region  has  been  in  hydrological 
drought conditions almost continuously since April 2019 with a slight and brief recovery just in 
mid-2020 (Fig. 15). 

Figure 15: Standardized Precipitation Index for 3-, 6- and 12-month accumulation periods 
(SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12) displaying the long-term drought evolution in Morocco (Oriental) from 
February 2017 to January 2022. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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In northern Algeria, temporal SPI patterns are similar to the ones estimated for southern Spain, 
with less severe values but higher persistence. Also in this case, the recent drought event (that 
started  in  September-October  2021)  seems  to  be  linked  with  a  less  severe  but  persistent 
drought (Fig. 16). More in-depth analysis, e.g. using field data for confirmation, is required to 
confirm this hypothesis. 

Figure 16: Standardized Precipitation Index for 3-, 6- and 12-month accumulation periods 
(SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12) displaying the long-term drought evolution in Algeria (Sidi Bel Abbes) 
from February 2017 to January 2022. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
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Soil moisture anomaly 

The lack of precipitation induces the reduction of the soil water content. The aim of the EDO soil 
moisture indicator is to provide an assessment of the topsoil water content, which is a direct 
measure of drought conditions associated with the difficulty for plants to extract water from 
the soil.  

During the first 10-day period of February 2022, drier soil moisture conditions were observed 
in the Iberian Peninsula and in northern Africa (Fig. 17). The long dry period, exacerbated by the 
sharp worsening of the drought since September-October 2021, resulted in a large extended 
and severe drier than normal condition along almost all the coastal regions of north-western 
Africa.  Similar  conditions  can  be  found  in  the  Mediterranean  coastal  regions  of  Spain.  Dry 
anomalies are detected across many other parts of Europe too. In spite of the shorter dry period 
in Portugal, the soil is much drier than normal due to the total lack of rainfall in December 2021 
and January 2022. 

Figure 17: Soil Moisture Anomaly - first ten-day period of February 2022 

In June 2021, the whole Iberian Peninsula experienced wetter than normal soil conditions and 
only local and slightly drier than normal conditions were observed in Morocco and Tunisia. During 
summer 2021, the whole western Mediterranean region (normally dry in that period) was drier 
than normal, with the most severe soil moisture anomalies observed in northern Morocco. In 
September 2021, meteorological conditions led to a full soil moisture recovery in the Iberian 
Peninsula (except for Andalucía). In northern Africa, only a very slight improvement was visible 

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instead. During autumn, a slow but continuous increase of the dry anomaly has been observed, 
which drastically exacerbated in January 2022 (Fig. 18). 

Figure 18: Soil Moisture Anomaly – end of each month from June 2021 to January 2022. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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fAPAR anomaly 

The  satellite  based  GDO  indicator  fraction  of  Absorbed  Photosynthetically  Active  Radiation 
(fAPAR)  estimates  the  fraction  of  the  solar  energy  absorbed  by  leaves.  fAPAR  anomalies, 
specifically the negative deviations from the long-term average over the same period, are an 
indicator of possible drought impact on vegetation. 

The vegetation response to the lack of rainfall seems to be delayed with respect to the other 
indicators.  In  the  Iberian  Peninsula,  despite  the  effective  lack  of  precipitation  and  dry  soil 
moisture conditions, the fAPAR anomaly shows better than normal conditions. In contrast, the 
impact on vegetation is visible in Morocco and the western coast of Algeria, given that drought 
lasted longer and the partial role of a climatologically shorter wet season (Fig. 19). 

Figure 19: fAPAR Anomaly - first ten-day period of February 2022. 

The  temporal  evolution  of  the  fAPAR  anomaly  confirms  the  long  and  persistent  drought  in 
northern Africa affecting vegetation in Algerian coastal regions since June 2021, and expanding 
towards Morocco since November 2021 with a sharp worsening in January 2022. In the Iberian 
Peninsula, the vegetation maintained better than normal conditions almost everywhere till the 
beginning of winter, when first signals of negative anomalies appeared in the southern coastal 
regions (Fig. 20). The spring and summer evolution will be extremely important for the drought 
impacts. 

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Figure 20: fAPAR Anomaly - end of each month of from June 2021 to January 2022. 

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Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) 

The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) is used to 
identify  areas  affected  by  agricultural  drought,  and  areas  that  may  be  affected.  The  CDI  is 
derived by combining the previously  analysed Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Soil 
Moisture  Anomaly  (SMA),  and  the  fAPAR  Anomaly.  Areas  are  classified  according  to  three 
primary  drought  classes:  (1)  “Watch”,  indicating  that  precipitation  is  less  than  normal;  (2) 
“Warning”,  indicating  that  also  soil  moisture  is  in  deficit;  and  (3)  “Alert”,  indicating  that  also 
vegetation shows signs of stress. Three additional classes – namely “Full Recovery”, “Temporary 
Soil  Moisture  Recovery”  and  “Temporary  fAPAR  Recovery”  –  identify  the  stages  of  drought 
recovery  processes  in  terms  of  its  impacts  on  soil  moisture  and  vegetation.  Here  the  CDI  is 
presented in a revised and improved version (v.2.0), using the same input data, but different 
from the one operationally available on the EDO  website (v.1.5.0) in terms of computational 
algorithm. The main changes in the revised CDI version are the inclusion of a constraint on the 
temporal consistency, based on CDI’s value in the preceding ten-day period, and the addition of 
two temporary recovery classes (for soil moisture and for vegetation conditions). This improves 
the temporal continuity of the indicator. The three main stages of drought ("Watch”, "Warning” 
and "Alert”) and the "Full Recovery” stage remain unchanged.2 

At  the  begin  of  February  2022,  CDI  classifies  the  drought  with  an  “alert”  level  in  northern 
Morocco,  Algeria,  Tunisia  and  the  coast  of  Andalucía  (Spain)  and  Algarve  (Portugal).  The 
“Warning” level is assigned to almost all the investigated regions (i.e., the Iberian Peninsula and 
the Mediterranean coast of Africa), giving the relevance of the events in terms of extent, severity 
and duration (Fig. 21). As already mentioned, the temporal evolution in the next months (March-
April) will be essential to understand and assess the severity of the ongoing drought over the 
western Mediterranean and its potential impacts. 

2 For more detailed information refer to C. Cammelleri et al.: A revision of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) 
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 481–495, 2021 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-481-2021 

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Figure 21: Combined Drought Indicator (CDI), v.2.0 – beginning of February 2022. The index is 
not computed over the desert areas of northern Africa, as drought indicators and impacts in 
such areas are neither relevant nor possible to compute or assess. 

Seasonal forecast 

According  to  the  GDO  seasonal  forecasts,  severely  drier  than  normal weather  conditions  are 
expected  over  the  whole  Iberian  Peninsula  in  the  period  February-April  2022  (Fig.  22).  Less 
severe,  but  nevertheless  drier  than  normal  conditions  are  forecasted  for  northern  Africa. 
Considering  that  the  climatological  wet  period  is  already  close  to  its  end,  and  summer  is 
characterized  by  generally  scarce  precipitation  in  these  regions,  even  in  case  of  normal 
precipitation,  this  may  not  significantly  change  the  drought  situation.  These  very  negative 
forecasts are the main concern for the evolution of the drought that could become an extreme 
and persistent event. Monitoring of the next months is essential for risk and impact assessment 
(Fig. 22). 

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Figure 22: Indicator for forecasting unusually wet and dry conditions for 3 months, February 
to April 2022.  

Under  currently  forecasted  conditions,  the  vegetation  will  be  further  affected  in  the  coming 
months by the persistence of dry conditions.  

Focus on Portugal3 

According to the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI; Fig. 23) produced and made available by 
the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA), the onset of the drought goes back to 
the beginning of the expected rainy season (October) in the southern region, extending to the 
whole territory in the subsequent months and increasing in intensity until  February 15th. The 
southern region and some areas in the districts of Bragança and Castelo Branco (inner regions) 
are now under extreme drought (as estimated by the IPMA-PDSI). 

3 Source: Portuguese Sea and Atmosphere Institute - Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA) and 
Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA) 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Figure 23: Spatial distribution of the IPMA-PDSI between October 2021 and February 2022. 

The  accumulated  precipitation  since  the  beginning  of  the  2021/22  hydrological  year  is  well 
below the average value for 1971-2000, especially in the very dry months of November and 
January. Compared to other drought years, this is one of the driest: only 1998/99 shows a higher 
deficit in February (Fig. 24). 

Figure 24: Monthly precipitation accumulated in the hydrological years: 1944/45, 1980/81, 
1998/99, 2004/05, and 2021/22. The blue line shows the 1971-2000 normal values.  

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

In  the  southern  regions  (Alentejo  and  Algarve)  a  continuous  precipitation  deficit  has  been 
observed in the previous hydrological years, with a slight recovery in the last one (Fig. 25): 

• Évora/Alentejo: in the last 7 years, 5 had values below normal; a slight recovery was observed 
in in 2019/20. 

• Beja/Alentejo: last 5 years below normal. 

•  Mértola/Aentejo:  9  consecutive  hydrological  years  below  normal,  with  a  slight  recovery  in 
2019/20. 

• Vila R. S. António/Algarve: last 8 years below normal. 

Figure 25: Precipitation anomalies (w.r.t. 1971-2000) in the hydrological year from 1960/61 
to 2020/21.  

The Drought State Reservoirs Index (DSIR) is used to assess the effect of the drought over the 
reservoirs storage. The actual stored volume is compared with the average, and the minimum 
and maximum values of the historic data series.  

The analysis of the monthly stored volume in the reservoirs for the main river basins shows that 
a significant area of the territory is in the Alert or Emergency state. The most critical situations 
are  on  the  north-western  and  south-western  Portugal,  namely  the  Lima,  Cávado,  Ave,  Mira, 
Ribeiras do Algarve (Barlavento) river basins (Fig. 26).  

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

Figure 26: Drought State Reservoirs Index (DSIR) from October 2021 to January 2022  

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Drought in western Mediterranean February 2022 
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This hydrological year Portugal is facing an unusual deficit of rain all over the country with a 
major impact on the reservoirs water volume.  

The graphs show the DSIR index of the monthly volume for the historic data series for reservoirs 
which have in January of 2022 the total capacity below 20%, namely Alto Lindoso (Lima river 
basin), Monte da Rocha e Campilhas (Sado river basin), Bravura (Ribeiras do Algarve).  

Alto Lindoso dam has registered this hydrological  year  the five lowest values of the  historic 
monthly volume series (30 years), as it can be seen in fig. 27. 

Monte  da  Rocha,  Campilhas  e  Bravura  dams  register  the  longest  period  on  the  alert  and 
emergency drought levels hydrological, worse than the historical drought of 1990/92, as it can 
be seen in figures 28, 29 and 30, respectively. 

This  critical  hydrological  situation  forced  the  National  Water  Authority,  the  Portuguese 
Environment Agency, to restrict the use of water in some reservoirs for hydroelectric power and 
irrigation in order to assure the water for human consumption and ecological flow. 

Figure 27: Drought State Index for Reservoirs for Alto Lindoso reservoir from 1992 to 2022 

Figure 28:  Drought State Index for Reservoirs for Monte da Rocha reservoir from 1992 to 
2022 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Figure 29: Drought State Index for Reservoirs for Campilhas reservoir from 1990 to 2022 

Figure 30: Drought State Index for Reservoirs for Bravura reservoir from 1990 to 2022 

The evolution of the groundwater reserves since October 2021 shows a decrease of the water 
stored in most of the aquifers, due to the deficit of precipitation. There are several groundwater 
bodies that are in a critical situation, since the beginning of the 2018-2019 hydrological year. 
These situations relate to bodies of water where levels below the 20th percentile persist over 
some months (Fig. 31). In order to preserve underground reserves for public supply and animal 
watering,  the  APA  imposed  some  conditions  on  the  licensing  of  new  abstractions,  namely  in 
aquifers in critical condition. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Drought in western Mediterranean February 2022 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

Figure 31: Evolution of the groundwater reserves on the hydrological year of 2021/2022  

Reported impacts 

Iberian Peninsula  

An  earlier  than  usual  consumption  of  feed  crops  stock  associated  with  the  potential  drop  in 
forage production as well as the general increase in the cost of stock and production factors 
(fertilizers, seeds and others) has led to a great concern in the agricultural sector. The current 
main impacts are summarised below. 

Agricultural Sector 

 

In some areas, crops have had lower vegetative development, especially those in thinner 
soils and with lower moisture retention capacity. The ones that were sown late did not 
germinate, due to the lack of rain. The situation is very serious in Alentejo and especially 
in  the  municipalities  of  Baixo  Alentejo  -  Castro  Verde,  Mértola,  Almodôvar,  Odemira, 
Ourique and throughout the southwestern part of Alentejo. 
  A significant reduction in the area sown with barley is expected. 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Drought in western Mediterranean February 2022 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
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  Due to the lack of precipitation, farmers in the Algarve are already watering the orchards 
with  an  irrigation  allocation  similar  to  the  summer  months,  although  citrus  orchards 
showed a normal vegetative development. 

Livestock Feeding 

  Due to the lack of precipitation and lower values of relative humidity, fodder shortages 

in meadows and pastures have worsened. 

  Pastures  show  only  little  vegetation  growth  and  the  grass  that  grew  has  a  poor 
development. Throughout January, feeding continued to be based extensively on straw 
and hay. 
In Alentejo and Algarve, livestock are being supplied with supplemented stocks of feed 
crops (straw and hay) and concentrates (rations).4 

 

The severe drought has spread across almost all of mainland Portugal in February, threatening 
water supply (Fig. 32) over an even wider area than during the last record dry spell of 2005. 
Moreover, global cereals prices are very high5. The agriculture Ministers of Portugal and Spain 
presented a set of proposals to the European Commission to tackle the situation and the risks 
for the agricultural and the energy sectors6. 

4 Source: Portuguese Sea and Atmosphere Institute - Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA) 

5 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 
https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/ 

6 https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/portugal-drought-worsens-raising-fears-crops-water-supply-
2022-02-21/  

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Drought in western Mediterranean February 2022 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

Figure 32: Storage in the first three weeks of January 2022 by watershed are below the 
average (1990/91 to 2020/2021) except for the Douro, Vouga, Guadiana and Aarade basins. 
Source: Environmental Portuguese Agency (APA). 

The negative effects of the severe drought could already be observed across half of mainland 
Portugal in January 2022. Livestock and especially extensive livestock production has been one 
of the worst hit sectors, due to poor grazing conditions. Concerning cereals, heavy impacts  in 
both the reduction of sown areas  (the lowest in the last hundred years according to current 
predictions) and the poor  vegetative development of  rain-fed crops are  also expected, if the 
drought will continue as expected. This drought scenario, combined with the increase of input 
prices, has already generated uncertainty and concern in the sector.7 

According  to  the  Environmental  Portuguese  Agency  (APA),  in  Portugal  the  drought  is  already 
peculiar due to the combination of a slightly positive temperature anomaly with the severely 
negative precipitation anomaly (with respect to 1971-2000; Fig. 33). 

7 http://www.publicnow.com/view/CD97B93274AB2A50ABFD057268B04B351738C9A6  

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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GDO Analytical Report  

Drought in western Mediterranean February 2022 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

Figure 33: Deviation of the average air temperature and percentage of precipitation from the 
normal 71-00 in the month of January (period 1941 – 2022). Source: Environmental 
Portuguese Agency (APA). 

Northern Africa 

Although rainfall amounts have improved considerably in December and January in the central 
part of northern Algeria, major deficits are still observed in the inland areas of the country. In 
addition, there is a high probability for continuation of below average rainfall amounts in March.8 

Early season rainfall in Morocco points to major deficits in most of the country with very dry 
conditions. In addition, there is a high probability for a continuation of below average rainfall in 
March.9 

8 https://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/asap/country.php?cntry=4  

9 https://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/asap/country.php?cntry=169  

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Below average yield is reported for the major production areas of Algeria, most markedly in the 
north-western and central regions. Higher precipitation would be required to avoid further losses 
in  crop  yield  potentials.  The  yield  forecast  from  JRC-MARS  is  below  the  5-year  average.  In 
Morocco, the persistent precipitation deficit has led to drought conditions in most agricultural 
areas. Persisting shortages in water supply could further compromise the cereal campaign if 
rains will not arrive in the coming weeks10. 

Water shortage in Morocco is causing severe issues. Due to the lack of rainfall during autumn 
and  winter  periods,  the  situation  is  worsening  and  farmers  are  being  hit  the  hardest.  The 
reservoirs  are  at  low  levels,  with  volumes  at  less  than  33%.  It  should  be  noted  that 
overexploitation of the Morocco's aquifers is another factor contributing to the seriousness of 
the situation. The government has announced that it will allocate 10 billion dirhams (940 million 
Euro) to mitigate the consequences of the drought. The main objective is to help the affected 
farmers,  improve  water  management  to  ensure  adequate  water  distribution,  improve 
agricultural insurance and finance supplies of both wheat and livestock feed11. 

10 The JRC MARS Bulletin – Crop monitoring European Neighbourhood available at 
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins  

11 https://atalayar.com/en/content/moroccan-government-allocates-10-billion-dirhams-alleviate-effects-drought  

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Glossary of terms and acronyms  

APA 

Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente 

CEMS   

Copernicus Emergency Management Service 

CDI 

DSIR 

EDO 

EC 

Combined Drought Indicator 

Drought State Reservoirs Index 

European Drought Observatory  

European Commission 

ECMWF 

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 

ERA5 

ERCC 

FAO 

ECMWF Reanalysis v5 

European Emergency Response Coordination Centre 

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations  

fAPAR   

Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation  

GDO 

GDP 

Global Drought Observatory 

Gross Domestic Product 

GPCC   

Global Precipitation Climatology Centre 

IPMA 

JRC 

Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera  

Joint Research Centre 

MARS   

Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS  

PDSI 

Palmer Drought Severity Index 

RDrI-Agri      Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture 

SMA 

SMI 

SPI 

Soil Moisture Index (SMI) Anomaly  

Soil Moisture Index 

Standardized Precipitation Index  

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Drought in western Mediterranean February 2022 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

GDO indicators versioning: 

The GDO/EDO indicators appear in this report with the following versions:   

Soil Moisture Index Anomaly, v.2.1.1   
fAPAR (fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation) Anomaly 1.3.2  
Indicator for forecasting unusually wet and dry conditions 1.0.0 
Precipitation (GPCC) 1.2.0  
Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) 2.3.2  
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, GPCC, 1-dd resolution) 1.2.0 for charts; SPI ERA5 (1/4-
dd  resolution)  for  maps.  SPI  ERA5  is  a  provisional  dataset  which  replaces  SPI  Blended  and 
Interpolated (v.1.2.0), unavailable in the considered period due to an issue in source data. 
Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) 2.0 (beta version not operational) 

Check https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/download for more details on indicator versions.  

Distribution: 

For use by the ERCC and related partners, and publicly available for download at GDO website: 
https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/reports  

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Drought in western Mediterranean February 2022 
JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

List of Figures 

Figure 1: Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) – first ten days of February 2022.
......................................................................................................................................................... 2 
Figure 2: Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) estimated for each 10-day period 
from the beginning of December 2021 to the end of January 2022. .......................................... 3 
Figure 3: Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) – temporal evolution in Portugal 
(Alentejo) in 2021. .......................................................................................................................... 4 
Figure 4: Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) – temporal evolution in Spain 
(Andalucía) in 2021 ........................................................................................................................ 4 
Figure 5: Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) – temporal evolution in Morocco 
(Oriental) in 2021 ........................................................................................................................... 4 
Figure 6: Risk of Drought Impact for Agriculture (RDrI-Agri) – temporal evolution in Algeria 
(Sidi Bel Abbes) in 2021 ................................................................................................................. 4 
Figure 7: Monthly total (upper panel) and cumulative (lower panel) precipitation – temporal 
evolution in Portugal (Alentejo; 38° N, -8.3° E) from February 2020 to January 2022. .............. 6 
Figure 8: Monthly total (upper panel) and cumulative (lower panel) precipitation – temporal 
evolution in Spain (Andalucía; 37.6° N, -2.7° E) from February 2020 to January 2022. ............. 7 
Figure 9: Monthly total (upper panel) and cumulative (lower panel) precipitation – temporal 
evolution in Morocco (Oriental; 34.5° N, -2.6° E) from February 2020 to January 2022. ........... 8 
Figure 10: Monthly total (upper panel) and cumulative (lower panel) precipitation – temporal 
evolution in Algeria (Sidi Bel Abbes; 34.7° N, -0.5° E) from February 2020 to January 2022. ... 9 
Figure 11 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-1; SPI-3; SPI-6) January 2022. ..................... 10 
Figure 12: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) monthly maps from July 2021 to 
December 2021. ........................................................................................................................... 11 
Figure 13: Standardized Precipitation Index for 3-, 6- and 12-month accumulation periods 
(SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12) displaying the long-term drought evolution in Portugal (Alentejo) from 
February 2017 to January 2022. ................................................................................................. 12 
Figure 14: Standardized Precipitation Index for 3-, 6- and 12-month accumulation periods 
(SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12) displaying the long-term drought evolution in southern Spain (Andalucía) 
from February 2017 to January 2022. ........................................................................................ 13 
Figure 15: Standardized Precipitation Index for 3-, 6- and 12-month accumulation periods 
(SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12) displaying the long-term drought evolution in Morocco (Oriental) from 
February 2017 to January 2022. ................................................................................................. 14 
Figure 16: Standardized Precipitation Index for 3-, 6- and 12-month accumulation periods 
(SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12) displaying the long-term drought evolution in Algeria (Sidi Bel Abbes) 
from February 2017 to January 2022. ........................................................................................ 15 
Figure 17: Soil Moisture Anomaly - first ten-day period of February 2022 ............................. 16 
Figure 18: Soil Moisture Anomaly – end of each month from June 2021 to January 2022. .. 17 
Figure 19: fAPAR Anomaly - first ten-day period of February 2022. ....................................... 18 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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Figure 20: fAPAR Anomaly - end of each month of from June 2021 to January 2022. ......... 19 
Figure 21: Combined Drought Indicator (CDI), v.2.0 – beginning of February 2022. The index is 
not computed over the desert areas of northern Africa, as drought indicators and impacts in 
such areas are neither relevant nor possible to compute or assess. .......................................... 21 
Figure 22: Indicator for forecasting unusually wet and dry conditions for 3 months, February 
to April 2022. ................................................................................................................................ 22 
Figure 23: Spatial distribution of the IPMA-PDSI between October 2021 and February 2022.23 
Figure 24: Monthly precipitation accumulated in the hydrological years: 1944/45, 1980/81, 
1998/99, 2004/05, and 2021/22. The blue line shows the 1971-2000 normal values. ........... 23 
Figure 25: Precipitation anomalies (w.r.t. 1971-2000) in the hydrological year from 1960/61 
to 2020/21. ................................................................................................................................... 24 
Figure 26: Drought State Reservoirs Index (DSIR) from October 2021 to January 2022 ........ 25 
Figure 27: Drought State Index for Reservoirs for Alto Lindoso reservoir from 1992 to 2022
....................................................................................................................................................... 26 
Figure 28:  Drought State Index for Reservoirs for Monte da Rocha reservoir from 1992 to 
2022 .............................................................................................................................................. 26 
Figure 29: Drought State Index for Reservoirs for Campilhas reservoir from 1990 to 2022 .. 27 
Figure 30: Drought State Index for Reservoirs for Bravura reservoir from 1990 to 2022 ...... 27 
Figure 31: Evolution of the groundwater reserves on the hydrological year of 2021/2022 ... 28 
Figure 32: Storage in the first three weeks of January 2022 by watershed are below the 
average (1990/91 to 2020/2021) except for the Douro, Vouga, Guadiana and Aarade basins. 
Source: Environmental Portuguese Agency (APA). ....................................................................... 30 
Figure 33: Deviation of the average air temperature and percentage of precipitation from the 
normal 71-00 in the month of January (period 1941 – 2022). Source: Environmental 
Portuguese Agency (APA). ............................................................................................................. 31 
: 

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JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency 
Management Service (CEMS) - 28/02/2022  

Authors:  

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate E Space, Security & Migration, Disaster Risk 
Management Unit - Drought Team 

Toreti A. i (Team Leader)  
Bavera D.ii(Lead Author) 
Cammalleri C.i 
de Jager A.i 

Di Ciollo C.iii 
Maetens W.i 
Magni D. ii 
Masante D.i 

Mazzeschi M.iv 
McCormick N.i 
Spinoni J.i 

Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, I.P. (IPMA) 

Vanda Cabrinha Piresv  

Ricardo Deusv 

Tânia Cotav 

Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA) 

Maria Felisbina Quadradovi 

Maria Manuela Saramagovi 

We  acknowledge  the  Gabinete  de  Planeamento,  Políticas  e  Administração  Geral  (GPP)  /  Ministério  da 
Agricultura for the information on drought impacts 

Disclaimer and Legal Notice: this report by the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) is based on 
products  under  constant  development that  may  change  at any  time  without notice.  It  was generated  using  the 
Copernicus Emergency Management Service information (2022). The views here expressed may not be regarded as 
an official position of the European Commission (EC) in any circumstances. The  designations employed and the 
presentation of material on the  map  do not imply the  expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the 
European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities or concerning the 
delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 

i European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy 
ii Arcadia SIT, Vigevano, Italy 
iii Arhs Development, Milan, Italy 
iv Uni Systems, Luxembourg    
v Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, I.P. (IPMA), Lisbon, Portugal 
vi Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente (APA), Amadora, Portugal 

Global Drought Observatory: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 

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