REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE EMPLOYMENT COMMITTEE Report on the European instrument for Temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) following the COVID-19 outbreak pursuant to Article 14 of Council Regulation (EU) 2020/672 SURE at 18 months: third bi-annual report
Date: 2022-03-24
Institutions: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: EU aid, EU financial instrument, coronavirus disease, economic consequence, emergency aid, employment aid, epidemic, fight against unemployment, self-employed person, social impact

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 24.3.2022  COM(2022) 128 final  REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE EMPLOYMENT COMMITTEE Report on the European instrument for Temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) following the COVID-19 outbreak pursuant to Article 14 of Council Regulation (EU) 2020/672       SURE at 18 months: third bi-annual report  
 
 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

This  report  is  the  third  bi-annual  report  on  the  European  instrument  for  temporary 
Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE). It confirms the findings 
outlined in the previous reports and presents the operations and use of the instrument to date and 
reviews its socio-economic impacts. SURE is a crisis instrument, with a size of EUR 100 billion, 
created by the European Union (EU) to help Member States protect jobs and workers’ incomes 
in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. SURE is also a strong expression of solidarity across 
Member States through the EU: all Member States agreed to provide bilateral guarantees to the 
EU  so  that  the  Union  could  borrow  from  the  markets  at  very  favourable  conditions  to  finance 
SURE loans.  

A novel instrument put in place quickly to respond to the socioeconomic impact of the pandemic  

The implementation of the instrument was swift and smooth and almost all of the EUR 94 
billion of SURE financial assistance granted has now been disbursed to 19 Member States. 
As  part  of  the  EU’s  initial  response  to  the  pandemic,  the  Commission  proposed  the  SURE 
Regulation on 2 April 2020, and the Regulation  was adopted by the Council on 19 May 2020. 
The  financial  envelope  of  EUR  100  billion  became  available  on  22  September  2020,  after  all 
Member  States  signed 
the 
implementation of the instrument, working closely with the Member States. Most of the granted 
financial assistance was disbursed in only just seven months, from October 2020 to May 2021.  

the  guarantee  agreements.  The  Commission  speeded  up 

The  EU  issued  social  bonds  for  the  first  time  to  finance  SURE  financial  assistance  to 
Member States. On top of the requirements of the SURE Regulation, this report also provides 
the relevant reporting under the EU SURE Social Bond Framework and re-confirms that SURE 
spending has been well aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. 

The continued use of SURE by beneficiary Member States  

This report confirms the earlier estimate that SURE covered around 31 million people and 
2½ million firms in 2020. This represents almost 30% of total employment and one quarter of 
total  firms  in  beneficiary  Member  States.  Small  firms  have  been  the  primary  beneficiaries  of 
SURE support. The most supported sectors were wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and 
food services and manufacturing, while many Member States also supported further sectors with 
targeted measures. 

SURE  continued  to  protect  employment  during  the  uneven  recovery  in  2021,  supporting 
approximately 3 million people and over 400 thousand firms. Public expenditure on SURE-
eligible measures has  continued to  broadly mirror the epidemiological  situation. Reflecting the 
subsequent waves of the pandemic, aggregate SURE public expenditure in 2021 turned out to be 
EUR 3 billion higher than expected at the time of the previous reporting in June 2021. Although 
the use of short-time work schemes has declined since its peak in 2020, it remained substantial in 
2021.  

1 

 
 
In  January  2022,  one  Member  State  was  granted  additional  financial  assistance,  while 
another  had  its  Council  Implementing  Decision  amended  to  include  additional  measures. 
Hungary  received  top-up  support  of  EUR  147  million  to  extend  existing  measures  and  fund  a 
new  one.  Portugal’s  original  Council  Implementing  Decision  was  amended  to  include  three 
additional measures, allowing Portugal to absorb the full amount of financial assistance already 
granted in September 2020.  

Almost  all  the  total  planned  public  expenditure  under  SURE  has  now  taken  place.  Total 
public expenditure on SURE-eligible measures is now expected to reach EUR 118 billion. This 
is  well  in  excess  of  the  total  financial  assistance  granted  (EUR  94  billion),  since  a  number  of 
Member States spent or planned to spend more on eligible measures than the requested financial 
assistance.  This  shows  the  high  relevance  of  the  measures  supported  by  SURE  from  the 
perspective of Member States. Over half of total public expenditure on SURE-eligible measures 
covers  short-time  work  schemes.  The  ancillary  nature  of  the  health-related  expenditure  -  only 
representing 5% of total expenditure - has once again been confirmed.  

The  absorption  of  SURE  financial  assistance  is  high  for  the  vast  majority  of  Member 
States. It remains very low in only one Member State and under close monitoring in another. In 
Romania, the wide absorption gap identified in the first and second reports – three quarters of the 
amount granted by the Council - remains broadly unchanged. In Poland, a moderate absorption 
gap appears due to  lower-than-expected spending on SURE-eligible measures, while none was 
identified in the national reporting used in the second report. The total expenditure in Poland is 
below  the  amount  granted  by  the  Council  under  SURE,  whereas  it  remains  above  the  amount 
already disbursed. The absorption risk identified in Portugal and Cyprus in the second report is 
no longer an issue. 

An updated assessment of the impact of SURE  

This  report  confirms  the  previous  report’s  estimate  that  the  policy  support  measures, 
including  SURE,  effectively  prevented  1½  million  people  from  becoming  unemployed  in 
2020. The rise in unemployment in 2020 in beneficiary Member States was moderate, despite the 
large  fall  in  economic  output,  and  significantly  lower  than  expected.  This  was  achieved  by 
retaining  employees  in  their  firms  and  maintaining  the  activity  of  the  self-employed.  As  an 
additional  factor,  SURE  also  helped  improve  general  confidence  across  the  EU,  which  was 
confirmed by a recent Eurobarometer survey in which SURE received broad-based support from 
EU  citizens.  As  reported  in  the  second  bi-annual  report,  Member  States  are  also  estimated  to 
have  saved  a  total  of  EUR  8.2  billion  on  interest  payments  by  receiving  financial  assistance 
through SURE.  

Looking forward, the protection of employment in the first two years of the pandemic has 
been supporting a more rapid recovery than  after previous crises.  In 2022, the recovery is 
forecast  to  more  than  offset  the  GDP  loss  incurred  during  the  COVID-19  crisis,  significantly 
outperforming  the  pace  of  recovery  seen  after  the  global  financial  crisis  and  euro  area  crisis, 
when  GDP  remained  well  below  its  pre-crisis  level  two  years  after  their  outbreak.  SURE 

2 

 
 
contributed  to  this  by  financing  schemes  to  allow  firms  to  retain  employees  and  skills  and  to 
facilitate the self-employed to be ready to resume their activities.  

The continuation of the exceptional occurrences justifying SURE  

High  uncertainty  continues  to  surround  the  economic  outlook  given  the  unpredictable 
nature of the pandemic – against which SURE was created – and the evolving geopolitical 
situation  in  Ukraine.  Most  EU  Member  States  avoided  reintroducing  broad-based,  strict 
containment  measures  throughout  the  winter  and  during  the  Omicron  wave,  although  certain 
sectors  remained  particularly  affected  by  restrictions.  Uncertainty  surrounding  the  virus  and 
potential  new  variants  remains  elevated.  The  growth  momentum  that  was  building  in  2021 
slowed at the end of the year and the invasion of Ukraine has heightened economic uncertainty.  

Policy  measures  to  mitigate  the  impacts  of  the  pandemic  became  increasingly  targeted  to 
facilitate  the  recovery  and  were  supported  by  the  Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility.  As 
SURE remains  in  place  until  31 December 2022 and  EUR 5.6 billion is  still available to  date, 
financial assistance under the instrument can continue to be granted to address severe economic 
disturbances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.  

Information on national audit and control systems 

This  report  introduces  an  examination  of  the  national  control  and  audit  systems  as 
reported by Member States, as per the SURE Regulation, to prevent the misuse of SURE 
financial assistance. Separately from the Commission’s control systems, Member States should 
ensure  the  proper  use  of  funds  at  national  level,  prevent  irregularities  and  fraud  and  recover 
misused  funds,  in  accordance  with  the  SURE  Regulation  and  bilateral  loan  agreements.  To 
ensure  that  Member  States  have  the  necessary  systems  in  place  to  respect  this  obligation,  the 
Commission  requested  Members  States  to  provide  information  on  national  control  and  audit 
systems relevant for SURE. This report summarises the information reported by all beneficiary 
Member States.  

The  institutional  structure  of  national  control  and  audit  systems  varies  greatly  across 
Member States. In almost all Member States, the institutions performing control and audit of the 
measures  supported  by  SURE  were  already  in  place  before  the  COVID-19  pandemic.  In  one 
Member  State,  new  institutions  were  specifically  put  in  place  for  the  measures  supported  by 
SURE.  In  another  Member  State,  new  audit  and  control  systems  were  put  in  place  for  one 
particular measure only, in addition to the existing ones.   

All beneficiary Member States have run controls to prevent the misuse of SURE financial 
assistance.  In  all  Member  States  but  one,  controls  and  audits  have  detected  some  instances  of 
irregularities  or  fraud. Member States  have  reported similar types of irregularities or fraud and 
all Member States have documented their work. 13 Member States took legal action to recover 
improperly used funds. In some Member States, funds were recovered without legal action.  

3 

 
 
INTRODUCTION 

This  report  is  the  third  bi-annual  report  on  the  European  instrument  for  temporary 
Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE).  SURE was created by 
the European Union (EU) in May 2020 to help Member States protect workers’ jobs and income 
during  the  COVID-19  pandemic1.  It  provides  requesting  Member  States  with  Union  financial 
assistance in the form of loans with favourable conditions. Financial assistance of up to EUR 100 
billion  is  available  under  SURE  to  help  finance  Member  States’  short-time  work  schemes  or 
similar  measures  aimed  at  protecting  employees  and  the  self-employed  and,  as,  an  ancillary, 
health-related measures, in particular in the workplace. 

This  bi-annual  report  is  a  legal  obligation.  It  is  adopted  by  the  European  Commission 
(hereafter the Commission) in accordance with Article 14 of Council Regulation (EU) 2020/672 
(SURE  Regulation)2  to  deliver  on  its  obligation  to  report  to  the  European  Parliament,  the 
Council, the  Economic and Financial Committee (EFC) and the Employment  Committee3. The 
next report will be due by end-September 2022. The cut-off date for including information in this 
report was 7 February 2022 for Member States’ reporting and 6 March 2022 for epidemiological 
and economic data4.  

This report reconfirms, as of January 2022, the positive assessments of SURE presented in 
the first two bi-annual reports. Its key findings can be summarised as follows: 

-  Approximately  31  million  people  and  2½  million  firms  are  estimated  to  have  been 

covered by SURE in 2020. 

-  3  million  people  and  over  400  thousand  firms  were  covered  by  SURE  in  2021  in  13 

Member States. 

-  National  labour  market  measures  supported  by  SURE  are  estimated  to  have  effectively 

helped prevent unemployment for almost 1½ million people in 2020; 

-  19 Member States have requested and been granted financial assistance under SURE. 
-  Amongst  those,  7  Member  States  have  been  granted  additional  top-up  support  by  the 

Council, the latest being Hungary in January 2022. 

-  Over EUR 94 billion has been allocated and almost EUR 90 billion has been disbursed. 

1  SURE  follows  from  the  Commission’s  2019-2024  Political  Guidelines,  which  proposed  a  European 
Unemployment Benefit Reinsurance Scheme to protect European citizens and reduce the pressure on public finances 
during  external  shocks.  Following  the  outbreak  of  COVID-19  virus  in  Europe,  it  was  set  up  on  the  basis  of  the 
Commission’s proposal of 2 April 2020. 
2 Council Regulation (EU) 2020/672 of 19 May 2020 on the establishment of a European instrument for temporary 
support  to  mitigate  unemployment  risks  in  an  emergency  (SURE)  following  the  COVID-19  outbreak,  OJ  L  159, 
20.5.2020, p. 1 (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32020R0672&from=en).   
3  Under  Article  14  of  the  Regulation,  the  Commission  shall  report  on  the  use  of  financial  assistance,  including 
outstanding amounts and the applicable repayment schedule under SURE, and on the continuation of the exceptional 
occurrences that justify the application of the SURE Regulation (the COVID-19 pandemic).  
4  All  reporting  tables  were  initially  submitted  by  26  January  2022  and  audit  questionnaires  by  7  February  2022 
(apart from Latvia, who submitted the questionnaire on 15 February 2022). In addition, some minor clarifications of 
data were provided after this date.  

4 

 
 
                                                           
-  Over half of the financial assistance under SURE has been allocated by Member States to 
support  short-time  work  schemes  and  over  40%  to  support  similar  measures,  including 
almost one third of total assistance for measures for the self-employed.  

-  5% was allocated to health-related measures, which are ‘ancillary’ in accordance with the 

SURE Regulation. 

-  The absorption of SURE financial assistance is high for 17 of the 19 Member States. 
-  Absorption  is  still  very  low  in  one  Member  State  and  monitored  closely  in  another5. 
Absorption is no longer an issue in the two other Member States identified in the previous 
bi-annual report. 

-  All Member States have run controls to prevent the misuse of SURE financial assistance. 
In all Member States but one, controls and audits detected instances of irregularities and 
fraud.   

-  Beyond the social and employment benefits, Member States are estimated to have saved 

EUR 8.2 billion in interest payments6. 

-  Over EUR 5 billion is still available under SURE until the end of 2022, which could be 
used to continue to address economic disturbances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. 
-  Further to these findings, the Eurobarometer published in December 2021 indicates that 

82% of Europeans consider that SURE loans were a good idea. 

This report updates the information contained in the first two bi-annual SURE report and 
extends  the  analysis  in  some  areas.  It  covers  institutional  developments  since  the  second 
report’s  cut-off  date  in  early  September  2021,  including  the  granting  of  additional  financial 
assistance  to  Hungary  and  the  amendment  of  the  Council  Implementing  Decision  (CID)  for 
Portugal to include additional eligible measures with the financial assistance amount unchanged. 
The  analysis  in  the  previous  reports  is  updated,  in  particular  on  the  public  expenditure  by 
Member States covered by SURE – based on bi-annual reporting provided by Member States in 
January  2022  –  and  on  the  estimated  impact  of  SURE  –  based  on  the  latest  macroeconomic 
figures. It builds on the analysis of the coverage of SURE of employees, self-employed and firms 
by considering developments in 2021. Importantly, and in accordance with the SURE Regulation 
and bilateral loan agreements, this report introduces an examination of the national control and 
audit systems put in place in Member States to prevent the misuse of SURE financial assistance. 

The report reviews the use of the SURE instrument to date and analyses its socio-economic 
impacts.  It  is  structured into  six sections. Section  I outlines the financial assistance  granted to 
Member States, including amounts disbursed and outstanding and the corresponding repayment 
schedule.  Section  II  summarises  the  Member  States’  total  public  expenditure  on  national 
measures supported by SURE7. Section III updates the initial assessment of the impact of SURE 
provided in the previous reports. Section IV examines the exceptional occurrences that justify the 

5 Absorption is defined here as the extent to which a Member State spends the funding it was granted by the Council 
on eligible measures. Romania has a very low level of absorption while Poland’s is under close monitoring. 
6 This figure is the same as in the second SURE report as there have been no new disbursements in the meantime. 
7  Sections  I  and  II  pertain  to  the  use  of  financial  assistance  under  SURE  as  per  Article  14(1)  of  the  SURE 
Regulation. 

5 

 
 
 
                                                           
continuation  of  SURE.  Section  V  reports  on  the  national  control  and  audit  systems.  Finally, 
Section  VI  provides  the  relevant  reporting  committed  to  under  Section  2.4  of  the  EU  SURE 
Social Bond Framework, which is merged into this report8.  

I.  THE USE OF FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE UNDER SURE: AMOUNTS GRANTED AND DISBURSED 

AND OTHER FINANCIAL ASPECTS  

1.1 Overview of beneficiary Member States and amounts granted  

One  Member  State  already  benefitting  from  SURE,  Hungary,  was  granted  additional 
financial assistance in January 2022. Hungary requested top-up support of EUR 147 million in 
December 2021 following the resurgence of the pandemic earlier in the year, which was granted 
by  the  Council  on  25  January  2022  based  on  a  Commission  proposal  on  21  December  20219. 
This brings the total SURE financial assistance granted to EUR 94.4 billion (see Table 1). 

Table 1: Overview of support granted under SURE (EUR) 

Member State 

Total Amount 
Granted* 

Of Which Top-Up 

Belgium 
Bulgaria 
Cyprus 
Czechia 
Greece 
Spain 
Croatia 
Italy 
Lithuania 
Latvia 
Malta 
Poland 
Portugal 
Romania 
Slovenia 
Slovakia 
Hungary 
Ireland 
Estonia 
Total 

8 197 530 000 
511 000 000 
603 770 000 
2 000 000 000 
5 265 000 000 
21 324 820 449 
1 020 600 000 
27 438 486 464 
957 260 000 
305 200 000 
420 817 000 
11 236 693 087 
5 934 462 488 
4 099 244 587 
1 113 670 000 
630 883 600 
651 470 000 
2 473 887 900 
230 000 000 
94 414 795 575 

394 150 000 
0 
124 700 000 
0 
2 537 000 000 
0 
0 
0 
354 950 000 
112 500 000 
177 185 000 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
147 140 000 
0 
0 
3 847 625 000 

Amount 
Disbursed* 

8 197 000 000 
511 000 000 
603 000 000 
2 000 000 000 
5 265 000 000 
21 324 000 000 
1 020 000 000 
27 438 000 000 
957 000 000 
305 000 000 
420 000 000 
8 236 000 000 
5 411 000 000 
3 000 000 000 
1 113 000 000 
630 000 000 
504 000 000 
2 473 000 000 
230 000 000 
89 637 000 000 

Amount Outstanding 

0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
0 
3 000 000 000 
523 000 000 
1 099 000 000 
0 
0 
147 000 000 
0 
0 
4 769 000 000 

*In the implementation of the disbursements, the amounts granted were rounded down for operational purposes. 

8 https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/eu-borrower/eu-borrowing-activities/eu-sure-social-bond-
framework_en  
9  Council  Implementing  Decision  (EU)  2022/98  of  25  January  2022  amending  Implementing  Decision  (EU) 
2020/1561 granting temporary support under Regulation (EU) 2020/672 to Hungary to mitigate unemployment risks 
in the emergency following the COVID-19 outbreak, OJ L 17, 26.1.2022, p. 42. 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
1.2 Disbursements, outstanding amount and applicable repayment schedule  

By February 2022, almost EUR 90 billion of SURE financial assistance had been disbursed 
to 19 Member States (see Table 1). This represents 95% of the total SURE financial assistance 
granted by the Council to Member States. As well as the recent top up granted to Hungary, there 
remains a relatively small amount of funds to be disbursed, delayed either at the request of the 
Member  States  concerned  or  until  the  absorption  of  funds  is  ensured.  The  total  outstanding 
amount  for  disbursement  represents  less  than  EUR  5  billion.  Further  detail  on  the  SURE 
transactions and disbursements to Member States is reported in Table A1 in the Annex. 

The aggregate repayment schedule of SURE outstanding loans is presented below. Table 2 
indicates for each year the total amount of principal to be repaid and interest payments.   

The average maturity of disbursements to Member States is 14.5 years. This is close to the 
maximum of 15 years provided by the respective CIDs.  

Table 2: Repayment Schedule of EU’s SURE outstanding loans 
SURE Total 

Principal 

Interest 

Calendar year 
2021 
2022 
2023 
2024 
2025 
2026 
2027 
2028 
2029 
2030 
2031 
2032 
2033 
2034 
2035 
2036 
2037 
2038 
2039 
2040 
2041 
2042 
2043 
2044 
2045 
2046 
2047 
2048 
2049 
2050 
Total 

 35 480 000  
 111 110 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 104 500 000  
 104 500 000  
 104 500 000  
 104 500 000  
 97 500 000  
 97 500 000  
 97 500 000  
 97 500 000  
 97 500 000  
 97 500 000  
 75 000 000  
 30 000 000  
 30 000 000  
 30 000 000  
3 029 590 000 

 35 480 000  
 111 110 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 8 122 500 000  
 8 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 10 122 500 000  
 8 259 500 000  
 10 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 122 500 000  
 8 622 500 000  
 9 122 500 000  
 104 500 000  
 104 500 000  
 104 500 000  
 7 104 500 000  
 97 500 000  
 97 500 000  
 97 500 000  
 97 500 000  
 97 500 000  
 5 097 500 000  
 6 075 000 000  
 30 000 000  
 30 000 000  
 10 030 000 000  
92 666 590 000 

 8 000 000 000  
 8 000 000 000  

 10 000 000 000  
 8 137 000 000  
 10 000 000 000  

 8 500 000 000  
 9 000 000 000  

 7 000 000 000  

 5 000 000 000  
 6 000 000 000  

 10 000 000 000  
89 637 000 000 

7 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
II.  THE USE OF THE SURE INSTRUMENT: PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND NATIONAL MEASURES 

COVERED BY SURE 

This  section  focuses  on  the  policy  use  of  the  instrument.  More  specifically,  it  summarises  the 
public expenditure by Member States covered by or eligible for SURE and the nature of national 
measures. It also presents the number of employees and firms supported by SURE. 

2.1 Actual and planned public expenditure supported by SURE 

2.1.1 Monitoring of public expenditure on eligible measures 

Bi-annual  reporting  by  beneficiary  Member  States  is  used  to  monitor  the  planned  and 
actual use of the financial assistance granted under SURE10. The required reporting includes 
the allocation of public expenditure across measures covered by SURE  (and the employee and 
firm coverage of those measures, as reported in Section 2.3). There have been four series of this 
reporting thus far: in August 2020 (“initial reporting”), in January-February 2021 (“first report”), 
in  June  2021  (“second  report”)  and  January  2022  (“latest  reporting”).  The  information  is 
presented as reported by Member States on measures that are eligible for SURE. Some Member 
States  have  supplemented  SURE  support  with  national  financing  or  EU  structural  funds,  thus 
expenditure can exceed the amount supported by SURE. The reporting facilitates measuring the 
absorption of the financial assistance under SURE, by comparison with the amount granted by 
the Council.   

Almost all the total planned public expenditure under SURE has now been implemented. 
The SURE Regulation allows for financial assistance to be used for planned increases in public 
expenditure on measures covered by SURE. 98% of total planned public expenditure on eligible 
measures  had  already  taken  place  by  the  end  of  202111.  In  June  2020,  the  share  of  planned 
expenditure was 54% (according to the initial reporting); by June 2021 (the time of the second 
report),  this  share  had  fallen  to  10%.  The  remaining  planned  expenditure  is  now  just  2%  (see 
Graph 2), with many measures now concluded.  

10  Ireland  and  Estonia  applied  for  SURE  for  incurred  public  expenditure  only,  as  such,  the  reporting  remains 
unchanged since March 2021. 
11  Eligible  measures  are  those  described  in  Article  3(2)  of  the  Regulation:  national  short-time  work  schemes  or 
similar  measures,  and  as  an  ancillary,  health-related  measures.  Some  Member  States  (Estonia,  Slovenia)  have 
discontinued reporting on  SURE-eligible  measures as they are no longer using SURE  financial assistance to  fund 
those  measures,  having  already  exceeded  the  amount  granted.  As  such,  the  total  expenditure  on  SURE-eligible 
measures is higher than reported here.  

8 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Graph 1: Reported public expenditure 

Graph 2: Monthly evolution of incurred and 
planned public expenditure under SURE 

Source: Member States’ reporting (January 2022). 
Note:  Estonia  applied  for  SURE  support  in  February 
2021 and, as such, is included from June 2021 onwards.  

Source: Member States’ reporting (January 2022). 

Total  public  expenditure  on  SURE-eligible  measures  is  now  expected  to  reach  EUR  118 
billion,  in  excess  of  the  total  financial  assistance  granted  under  SURE.  This  amount  has 
remained relatively stable since the previous report, when EUR 115 billion was expected (Graph 
1). This is greater than the total amount granted under SURE (EUR 94 billion) because a number 
of  Member  States  plan  to  spend  more  on  eligible  measures  than  the  financial  assistance  they 
requested  and  were  granted12.  This  further  highlights  the  continued  relevance  of  the  scope  of 
SURE to Member States.  

Aggregate  SURE  public  expenditure  in  2021  turned  out  to  be  EUR  3  billion  higher  than 
expected  at  the  time  of  the  previous  reporting  in  June  2021.  However,  there  was 
heterogeneity  across  countries  as  seven  Member  States  reported  lower-than-expected  amounts 
for 2021. Nine Member States, compared to three previously, are now planning expenditure in 
2022 for a total of EUR 2.6 billion. 

Public  expenditure  on  SURE-eligible  measures  has  continued  to  broadly  mirror  the 
epidemiological  situation.  After  stringent  measures  in  the  first  half  of  2021  across  Europe, 
expenditure fell to monthly lows by the end of summer 2021 as vaccination campaigns matured 
and  Member  States  moved  away  from  using  blanket  restrictions  to  manage  the  pandemic  (see 
Graph 2). There was a small uptick in public expenditure at the end of 2021 as the impact of the 
Omicron variant led to the reintroduction of some measures. 

12 For Spain, Italy and Poland, this is also due to the concentration limit (of 60% of the maximum amount of EUR 
100 billion) that applies to the three largest beneficiary Member States). 

9 

464545434434343481936391139899116119020406080100120140Initial reportingFeb 2021June 2021Jan 2022EUR BnFeb-Jun 2020Jul-Dec 202020212022020406080100120140024681012141618 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022EUR BnMonthly expenditure (LHS)Cumulated expenditure (RHS)IncurredPlanned 
 
 
 
 
  
                                                           
2.1.2 Absorption of funds  

The  degree  of  absorption  of  SURE  financial  assistance  is  high  for  the  vast  majority  of 
Member  States.  With  almost  all  public  expenditure  now  having  been  executed,  17  out  of  19 
Member  States  have  already  spent  at  least  the  total  financial  assistance  they  were  granted  on 
eligible measures (see Graph 3). 13 of these have spent or plan to spend more than the amount 
granted, including by financing the remainder nationally.  

In one Member State, the level of absorption of funds is potentially lower than indicated in 
the second report. Unlike in the previous report of 22 September 2021, Poland currently reports 
lower total public expenditure on measures provided for in their CID than the amount granted by 
the Council. This gap has emerged following data revisions (due to a time lag for the reporting of 
execution data) for some measures and can be attributed to the stronger-than-expected rebound 
in  the  economy.  However,  the  amount  already  disbursed  (EUR  8.2  billion)  remains  below  the 
total  public  expenditure  reported  by  Poland  (EUR  10.3  billion).  The  Commission  is  engaged 
with the national authorities to discuss potential solutions, including postponing the disbursement 
of the remaining funds. 

In Romania, the absorption gap that was identified in the first and second report remains 
high  (almost  two  thirds  of  the  disbursed  amount).  This  gap  is  due  to  a  weaker  than  expected 
impact of the pandemic on the Romanian economy and a stronger than expected recovery. The 
national  authorities  have  proposed  the  inclusion  of  additional  measures  (eligible  to  SURE)  to 
reduce this gap. The technical dialogue with the Commission is ongoing.  

Absorption will no longer be an issue in two Member States identified with an absorption 
gap  in  the  second  bi-annual  report.  The  previous  report  indicated  a  moderate  and  mild  gap, 
respectively, between the costing of the measures that had been included in the CID and the total 
amount  granted  under  SURE  in  Portugal  and  Cyprus.  Both  countries  now  report  actual 
expenditure  in  excess  of  the  amount  granted,  due  to  the  adoption  of  new  eligible  measures  in 
Portugal and due to the extension of measures in Cyprus.  

Portugal’s  original  Council  Implementing  Decision  was  amended  in  January  2022  to 
include additional eligible measures. To absorb the full amount granted in 2020, the amending 
CID added three eligible measures, which have already been implemented and are eligible to be 
financed under SURE13. The amending CID was approved by the Council on 25 January 2022, 
based on a Commission proposal on 4 January 202214.  

13 The additional measures comprise: a support scheme for self-employed workers, workers without access to other 
social  protection  mechanisms,  and  managers  whose  income  has  been  particularly  affected  by  the  COVID-19 
pandemic;  a  social  support  scheme  for  artists,  authors,  technicians  and  other  art  professionals;  the  hiring  of 
additional health professionals and overtime work in the National Health Service. 
14  Council  Implementing  Decision  (EU)  2022/99  of  25  January  2022  amending  Implementing  Decision  (EU) 
2020/1354 granting temporary support under Regulation (EU) 2020/672 to Portugal to mitigate unemployment risks 
in the emergency following the COVID-19 outbreak, OJ L 17, 26.1.2022, p. 47. 

10 

 
 
 
 
                                                           
Graph 3: Excess of planned and incurred public expenditure on eligible measures over loan 
amount (% of loan amount) 

Source: Member States’ reporting  
Note: Public expenditure refers to those reported, without adjusting for the concentration limit, on the measures as 
provided for in the CIDs, net of European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF). Some Member States (Estonia, 
Slovenia)  have  discontinued  reporting  on  SURE-eligible  measures  as  they  are  no  longer  using  SURE  financial 
assistance to fund those measures, having already exceeded the amount granted.  

2.2 National measures: short-time work schemes or similar measures supported by SURE  

Over  half  of  total  public  expenditure  on  SURE-eligible  measures  has  been  allocated  to 
short-time work schemes. 52% of total public expenditure on SURE-eligible measures has been 
allocated  to  short-time  work  schemes,  which  are  funded  by  16  of  the  19  Member  States 
benefitting  from  SURE.  A  further  32%  has  been  allocated  to  ‘similar  measures’  for  the  self-
employed15.  9%  was  allocated  to  wage  subsidy  schemes,  while  2%  of  total  expenditure  is 
allocated to ‘other’ similar measures supporting job retention and workers’ incomes16. 9 Member 
States only used SURE financial assistance for labour market measures (see Graph 4).  

The  ancillary  nature  of  the  health-related  expenditure  is  confirmed.  Only  5%  of  total 
expenditure was spent or planned to be spent on health-related measures. 10 Member States out 
of 19 did not make recourse to SURE support to finance health-related measures. 

15 This is based on Commission analysis, categorising the measures reported by Member States by type.  
16 Wage subsidy schemes are job-retention schemes similar to short-time work, but differ in that payments are not 
calculated in terms of hours (not worked), but rather correspond to a lump sum or a proportion of the total wage.  

11 

-100-50050100150200250RomaniaPolandEstoniaIrelandCyprusLatviaPortugalItalySloveniaLithuaniaHungaryGreeceMaltaBelgiumCroatiaSpainBulgariaCzechiaSlovakia 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Graph 4: Public expenditure on SURE-eligible measures by type of expenditure 

Source: Member States’ reporting  
Note: See SURE March 2021 report for further detail on Hungary’s health-related expenditure.  

Hungary  applied  for  top-up  support  to  extend  existing  measures  and  fund  one  new 
measure. The loan will assist Hungary in covering the costs of a new income support scheme for 
the  self-employed  and  an  extension  of  tax  reliefs  provided  to  companies  to  keep  people 
employed,  introduced  in  response  to  the  coronavirus  pandemic.  The  new  temporary  scheme  is 
targeted to entrepreneurs without employees, who are not eligible for wage subsidies under the 
sectoral  wage  scheme,  and  who  work  in  sectors  affected  by  lockdown  measures.  They  can 
receive a one-time payment equal to the monthly guaranteed minimum wage, under the condition 
that they maintain their activities for at least two months after the prospective end of the state of 
emergency. The remaining part of the support is granted to the extension of tax reliefs (from the 
employer’s social security contributions, the training levy, the small enterprise tax and the lump-
sum tax for small tax payers) for sectors most hit by the pandemic.  

2.3 SURE coverage in terms of employment and firms 
SURE  is  estimated  to  have  supported  around  31  million  people  and  2½  million  firms  in 
2020. The January 2021 reporting by Member States confirms the figures in the second report on 
SURE. This represents almost 30% of total employment and one quarter of firms in beneficiary 
Member  States17.  The  employment  estimate  is  comprised  of  approximately  22¼  million 
employees and 8¾ million self-employed workers. Graphs 5 and 6 present a breakdown of SURE 
coverage  by  Member  State.  These  estimates  do  not  include  people  supported  by  health-related 
measures under SURE and could therefore be considered conservative18.  

17 This corresponds to people  and firms  who  were, at some  point,  covered by short-time  work schemes or similar 
measures supported by SURE. The denominators are based on the reporting tables submitted by Member States. The 
total number of firms comprises firms with at least one employee.  
18  In  addition,  in  some  Member  States,  there  was  significant  overlap  between  the  recipients  of  support  across 
different measures, for which appropriate adjustment could not be made. In such cases, Member States were asked 

12 

0102030405060708090100BulgariaSlovakiaCroatiaIrelandGreeceMaltaLatviaEstoniaCyprusSloveniaLithuaniaPolandSpainSURE-19RomaniaPortugalItalyCzechiaBelgiumHungary% total expenditure Short-time-work schemesWage subsidy measuresSelf-employed measuresHealth-related measuresOther measures 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
 
Small firms have been the primary beneficiaries of SURE support. The pandemic caused a 
shift from the use of short-time work schemes by primarily large firms pre-Covid to mostly small 
firms during the pandemic, as the schemes were mostly taken up by the services (mainly hotels 
and  restaurants)  and  retail  sectors  rather  than  manufacturing19.  The  vast  majority  of  SURE 
coverage of firms was focused on small firms (Graph 6). Supports went primarily to firms in the 
services sector, although manufacturing still received significant support (estimated at around a 
third of SURE expenditure). The sectors with the largest share of expenditure were i) wholesale 
and  retail  trade,  ii)  accommodation  and  food  services  and  (iii)  manufacturing  (see  Graph  7). 
Many Member States have in their CIDs also provided for support to further sectors, such as the 
cultural sector, with targeted measures. 

Graph 5: Workers covered by SURE in 2020 
(% of total employment) 

Graph 6: Firms covered by SURE in 2020 
by size (% of total firms) 

Source: Member States’ reporting 
Note:  The  coverage  and  total  employment  figures  are 
those reported by Member States.  

Source: Member States’ reporting 
Note:  Total  firms  excludes  zero-employee  firms.    
Distribution  of  firms  is  assumed  to  apply  to  2020 
coverage. Poland and Hungary did not report on firm 
size.  Small  firms  are  those  with  less  than  50 
employees,  medium  with  50-250  employees  and 
large with over 250 employees. 

to report only the coverage of the largest measure(s) to avoid double counting. As such, the true coverage may be 
even higher.  
19 European Commission (2020): Labour Market and Wage Developments in 2020, Chapter 3, Policy developments. 
https://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=23268&langId=en.  Further  discussion  is  available  in  the  second 
SURE report.  

13 

010203040506070SloveniaItalyCyprusCroatiaMaltaGreeceCzechiaIrelandSlovakiaSURE-19SpainBelgiumPortugalLithuaniaPolandEstoniaRomaniaHungaryBulgariaLatvia% total employmentEmployeesSelf-employed0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%SloveniaItalyIrelandGreeceBelgiumCroatiaMaltaPortugalCyprusSlovakiaLithuaniaCzechiaSpainEstoniaPolandRomaniaLatviaBulgariaHungary% small firms% medium firms% large firms 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                           
 
 
 
Graph 7: Sectoral coverage of SURE 

Source: Member States’ reporting  
Note:  Member  States  report  the  three  sectors  that  benefitted  the  most  from  SURE,  as  well  as  the  shares  of 
expenditure  going  to  those  sectors.  This  graph  reports  the  average  share  of  expenditure  across  Member  States  in 
each sector. When a sector is not mentioned, we assume it gets an equal share of the residual spending. Six Member 
States do not report the shares of expenditure going to the top three sectors: we assume that the largest sector gets 
50%,  the  second  largest  gets  30%  and  the  third  largest  20%  of  total  expenditure.  These  figures  correspond  to  the 
averages in Member States that reported the shares of expenditure. 

SURE  continued  to  protect  employment  during  the  uneven  recovery  in  2021,  supporting 
approximately  3  million  people  and  over  400  thousand  firms.  This  includes  almost  2½ 
million  employees  and  over  600  thousand  self-employed,  corresponding  to  over  6%  of  total 
employment and over 10% of firms in the 13 beneficiary Member States who continued to use 
SURE in 2021 (Graphs 8 and 9)20. Subsequent waves of the pandemic required many Member 
States to reintroduce economic support measure at various stages throughout 2021. Although the 
economic  impact  of  these  waves  was  smaller  than  the  first,  some  Member  States  and  sectors 
were  more  affected  than  others.  The  impact  on  employment  was  mitigated  by  measures 
supported by SURE, including the top-ups to deal with the second wave in early 2021.  

20 Member States that spent all of their SURE financial assistance in 2020 are not included here: Czechia, Estonia, 
Spain,  Ireland,  Croatia  and  Slovenia.  However,  many  of  these  Member  States  continued  or  adapted  their  relevant 
measures and financed them through other sources. The estimate is based on incomplete reporting as some Member 
States (Italy, Hungary) did not report coverage data for 2021. 

14 

S. Arts, entertainment and recreationN. Administrative and support serviceH. Transportation and storageQ. Human health and social workR. Other serviceM. Professional, scientific and technical activitiesF. ConstructionC. ManufacturingG. Wholesale and retail trade; Repair of motor vehicles and motorcyclesI. Accomodation and food service 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Graph 8: Workers covered by SURE in 2021 
(% of total employment) 

Graph 9: Firms covered by SURE in 2021 
(% of total firms) 

Source: Member States’ reporting 
Note:  Member  States  who  spent  the  SURE  financial 
assistance  by  the  end  of  2020  are  not  shown.  Not 
applicable  (n/a)  refers  to  Member  States  (Italy  and 
Hungary) that did not report coverage for 2021. 

Source: Member States’ reporting 
Note: Total firms excludes zero-employee firms.  Not 
applicable  (n/a)  refers  to  Member  States  (Italy  and 
Hungary) that did not report coverage for 2021. 

While declining over time, the recourse to short-time work support remained substantial in 
2021.  Although  the  peak  of  short-time  work  reached  during  the  first  wave  of  the  pandemic  in 
March-April  2020  remains  unprecedented,  a  considerable  number  of  workers  continued 
benefiting from short-time work support (or similar  job-retention  schemes), in  particular in  the 
first half of 2021. SURE expenditure closely tracks the share of employees covered by short-time 
work schemes (Graph 10). The gradual decline in the use of short-time work support reflects the 
ongoing  economic  recovery,  supported  by  the  successful  rollout  of  the  vaccination  campaigns. 
Unfortunately, the unavailability of data after September 2021 for a large majority of countries 
does not yet allow gauging the possible impact of the emergence of the Omicron variant of the 
SARS-CoV-2 virus on short-time work schemes. 

15 

0510152025303540MaltaLithuaniaCyprusPortugalGreeceCroatiaSlovakiaBelgiumLatviaSURE-19BulgariaRomaniaPolandItalyHungary% total employmentEmployeesSelf-employedn/an/a05101520253035GreeceBelgiumMaltaLithuaniaCroatiaPortugalSlovakiaCyprusLatviaSURE-19BulgariaRomaniaPolandItalyHungary% total firmsn/an/a 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Graph 10: Share of employees benefiting from short-time work and assimilated schemes  

Source: EMCO-SPC monitoring report on the employment and social situation following the COVID-19 outbreak 
(Winter 2022).  
Note:  Data  on  number  of  employees  covered  not  available  for  Czechia.  Partial  information  available  after  June 
2021: data on employees covered not available for Italy after June and for Belgium after August.  

The participation of women and youth in short-time work increased during the COVID-19 
crisis.  This  is  based  on  the  second  report  (published  in  September  2021),  with  no  updates 
available.  This  primarily  reflects  the  change  in  the  sectoral  composition  of  the  support  away 
from  manufacturing  and  construction  towards  services  and  retail,  i.e.  sectors  with  a  relatively 
higher  share  of  women  and  youth  in  employment21.  While  the  share  of  women  rose  to  around 
half of short-time work employment, the share of youth was still limited. 

III.  PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF SURE 

This section updates the analysis presented in the previous SURE bi-annual reports on the impact 
of  SURE  on  employment  and  public  finances,  also  using  the  outcome  of  the  Eurobarometer 
survey.  

3.1  Estimating the impact of SURE on unemployment 

This  section  provides  an  updated  assessment  of  SURE’s  impact  on  unemployment  in 
beneficiary  Member  States.  The  purpose  of  SURE  is  to  help  Member  States  preserve 

21 European Commission (2020): Labour Market and Wage Developments in 2020, Chapter 3, Policy developments. 
https://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=23268&langId=en.    In  Italy  and  Belgium,  on  average,  the  share  of 
women involved in the schemes doubled after March 2020, while the share of young worker beneficiaries increased 
from 1.6% to 5.7% in Italy and from 6.7% to 7.6% in Belgium. The share of women and young workers involved in 
short-time work was also high in Latvia, Romania, Portugal and Estonia. 

16 

-20246810121416180%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%janfebmaraprmayjunjulaugsepoctnovdecjanfebmaraprmayjunjulaugsep20202021STW scheme coverage (LHS)SURE expenditure (EUR bn, RHS) 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
employment of workers and the self-employed during the COVID-19 pandemic, thus protecting 
labour  incomes  (‘job  retention’  effect  on  impact).  It  also  facilitates  a  swift  recovery  when  the 
pandemic abates, since firms have retained their employees and skills and the self-employed are 
ready  to  resume  their  activity  (‘rebound  effect’  after  impact).  The  assessment  presented  here 
focuses on the relationship between output and unemployment since the onset of the pandemic. 
The  results  are  informative  but  figures  should  be  interpreted  with  caution  for  methodological 
reasons. First, it is difficult to design a ‘counterfactual’ scenario of labour market performance in 
the absence of SURE. Second, the output-employment relationship is impacted by a wide range 
of factors, including SURE. Other factors are related to the fact that people have been unable to, 
or were discouraged from, actively seeking employment due to the shutdown of large parts of the 
economy. 

The rise in unemployment in 2020 in beneficiary Member States was significantly less than 
expected.  The  swift  and  sizeable  policy  measures  taken  in  2020  to  address  the  COVID  crisis 
mitigated the impact of the fall in output on unemployment, compared with the expected reaction 
of unemployment to GDP observed in the past (see Graph 11)22. The increase in unemployment 
rates  was,  in  most  countries,  lower  than  expected23.  These  findings  confirm  the  earlier  results 
presented in the first and second bi-annual SURE report24.  

The  policy  support  measures  adopted,  including  SURE,  effectively  prevented  1½  million 
people from becoming unemployed in 2020 in the SURE beneficiary Member States25. This 
figure  is  confirmed  from  the  second  report.  As  mentioned  there,  the  lower-than-expected 
increase in  unemployment  can be partially attributed to  the widespread use of short-time work 
schemes and similar measures, in particular in those Member States benefitting from the SURE 
instrument.  At country level,  the higher the amount  received through SURE in  2020, the more 
moderate was the rise in unemployment, while some non-beneficiary Member States managed to 
use their excellent financing conditions to run large short-time work schemes (Graph 12). These 
labour  market  measures,  in  particular  short-time  work  schemes,  along  with  other  policy 
responses  to  the  pandemic,  are  estimated  to  have  reduced  the  unemployment  rate  in  SURE 
beneficiary  Member  States  by  around  1  percentage  point  compared  with  the  expected  rise  in 

22 The responsiveness of changes in economic growth to unemployment is often referred in the economic literature 
as  “Okun’s  Law”.  More  of  an  empirical  “rule  of  thumb”  than  a  relationship  grounded  in  theory,  Okun’s  Law 
suggests that a decline in output growth of between 2% and 3% is associated with a one percentage point increase in 
the  unemployment  rate  (see  Okun,  A.M.,  “Potential  GNP:  Its  measurement  and  signiﬁcance”,  Proceedings  of  the 
Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 1962). 
23 In Italy, Greece and Poland, the unemployment rate even declined in 2020. 
24 Our key findings also hold when replacing the change in unemployment rate with the change in the employment 
rate (i.e. employment over working-age population). This specification is a way to correct for the change in labour 
force, affecting unemployment indicators. For further details see European Commission (2021), Quarterly Report on 
the Euro Area, Section III, Vol. 20, No 2. Croatia is not included for data availability reasons.  
25  This  implies  that,  while  31  million  people  were  covered  by  SURE,  it  is  estimated  that  1½  million  would  have 
become unemployed in the absence of policy supports. 

17 

 
 
                                                           
unemployment.  This  corresponds  to  around  1½  million  people  who  avoided  unemployment 
during the outbreak of COVID-19 in the SURE beneficiary Member States26. 

Graph 11: Actual vs. expected changes in 
unemployment rates by SURE beneficiary 
Member State in 2020 

Graph 12: Relationship between the change 
in the unemployment rate and disbursed 
SURE funding in 2020 

Source: Ameco and own calculations. 
Note:  y-axis:  The  expected  change  in  unemployment 
rates  corresponds  to  the  prediction  stemming  from  a 
country-specific  regression  model for the period 1999 
to  2019.  The  analysis  is  based  on  an  Okun’s  law 
approach, where the dependent variable stands for the 
change  in  unemployment  rate  and  the  independent 
variable refers to the real GDP growth rate. The actual 
change  in  unemployment  rate  comes  from  COM  AF 
2021.   

Source: Ameco and own calculations.  
Note: y-axis: The expected change in unemployment rates 
stems 
regression  model 
explained in the note to Graph 11.  

the  country-specific 

from 

The protection of employment in the first two years of the pandemic has supported a more 
rapid recovery than in previous crises. Firstly, both GDP and unemployment recovered closer 
to  their  pre-crisis  levels  in  SURE  beneficiary  Member  States  in  2021  compared  to  the  global 
financial crisis and euro area crisis after the same period of time (see Graph 13). This occurred in 
spite of the subsequent waves of the pandemic that necessitated the reintroduction of restrictions 
during the  year. The continued recovery in employment saw the unemployment rate fall below 
its pre-pandemic rate to a record-low of 6.4% in the EU. Total hours worked have risen, largely 
reflecting a further reduction in the use of job retention schemes, although they remain 1% lower 
than  before  the  pandemic.  Secondly,  based  on  the  winter  forecast27,  economic  growth  will 
continue in 2022 and significantly outperform the recovery seen at the same stage after previous 

26 The finding is derived from the regression model presented in Graph 11. It assumes that the actual and expected 
labour force is the same.  
27 This analysis is based on  the Commission Winter 2022 Forecast whose cut-off date  was 1 February. Therefore, 
the forecast did not incorporate the developments with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.  

18 

-2-1012345ESELCYPTLVEEBGLTPLSKSICZHUITBEROMTIEActualExpectedMTELPTCYSIPLLTESROBEITLVCZBGSKIEHUFRNLDKATDESEFILUEE-5-4-3-2-1010.00.51.01.5Actual minus expected change in unemployment 2020Disbursed SURE funding 2020 (% of GDP)R2=0.3 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
crises,  when  GDP  remained  well  below  its  pre-crisis  level28.  This  suggests  that  keeping  the 
available workforce connected with firms via short-time work schemes and similar measures has 
helped support the swift recovery, despite the challenging epidemiological situation.    

Graph 13: Historical comparison of the recovery in GDP and unemployment after a crisis 

Source: Ameco (using Commission Autumn 2021 forecast), Eurostat  
Note: Aggregate GDP and average unemployment rate for SURE beneficiary Member States shown. Time period t-
1  refers  to  the  year  prior  to  the  respective  crises,  i.e.  t+2  for  the  Covid  crisis  refers  to  2022.  t=2009  for  Global 
financial crisis (GFC); t=2012 for euro area (EA) debt crisis. 

The channels explaining how SURE facilitated a milder rise in unemployment in 2020 and 
a  swifter  recovery  are  discussed  in  detail  in  the  first  bi-annual  report  on  SURE.  These 
include improving general confidence across the EU, support for and encouragement of the use 
of short-time work schemes, and the enabling of Member States to spend more on employment 
support  and  other  pandemic-related  policies.  Data  from  the  ad-hoc  survey  shown  in  the  first 
report  indicated  that  SURE  played  a  role  in  the  decision  of  a  majority  of  beneficiary  Member 
States  to  adopt  a  new  short-time  work  scheme  or  to  modify  an  existing  scheme,  and  enabled 
some  Member  States  to  be  more  ambitious  on  measures  similar  to  short-time  work  schemes. 
SURE  also  contributed  to  Member  States  increasing  the  generosity  or  length  of  their 
employment-retention  schemes,  since  it  underpinned  Member  States’  confidence  to  undertake 
larger borrowing and spending than they otherwise would have, enjoying the interest rate savings 
obtained by EU despite their lower credit rating. The confidence effect is further illustrated by 
the recent results of the Eurobarometer survey below.  

SURE  has  received  broad-based  support  from  EU  citizens.  The  Eurobarometer  survey 
published  in  December  2021  asked  respondents  in  the  euro  area  whether  SURE  loans  to  keep 

28 The recovery has however been uneven. Employment in contact-intensive sectors has accounted for most of the 
growth, while employment in manufacturing has stagnated. Employment levels for low-skilled workers continue to 
lag, reflecting the uneven nature of the recovery. 

19 

GFC (2009)EA debt crisis (2012)Covid (2020)90%92%94%96%98%100%102%104%106%t-1 (pre-crisis)tt+1t+2GDPGFC (2009)EA debt crisis (2012)Covid (2020)100%110%120%130%140%150%160%170%180%t-1 (pre-crisis)tt+1t+2Unemployment Rate 
 
 
 
   
 
                                                           
people in employment were a good idea, with 82% answering yes29. This positive view of SURE 
holds across both beneficiary and guarantor countries (see Graph 14), reaffirming the success of 
the instrument in both supporting jobs and improving confidence in the EU.  

Graph 14: EU citizens’ views on whether SURE loans were a good idea (% of total 
responses) 

Source:  Eurobarometer  survey  December  2021  publication,  conducted  in  euro  area  countries  in  October  and 
November 2021. See footnote 25.  

3.2 The direct financial effect: estimated interest rate savings  

Member States are estimated to have saved a total of EUR 8.2 billion on interest payments 
by  receiving  financial  assistance  through  SURE.  This  amount  is  based  on  the  first  seven 
issuances  of  SURE,  up  to  the  disbursement  of  25  May  2021,  which  was  the  last  disbursement 
before  this  report’s  cut-off30.  The  estimated  interest  savings  will  therefore  likely  increase  with 
the final disbursements31. These savings were generated as SURE loans offered Member States 
lower  interest  rates  than  those  they  would  have  paid  if  they  had  issued  sovereign  debt 
themselves, and this over an average period of close to 15 years. This is due to the EU’s AAA 

29 Specifically, respondents were asked: “What are your thoughts about the most recent EU financial support for EU 
Member States to overcome the COVID-19 crisis? Do you think it was good or not good to provide… loans to help 
interested Member States keep people in employment?” See: https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2289  
30 This figure is the same as in the second SURE report as there have been no new disbursements between the issue 
of this report and that of the second one. 
31  These  estimates  exclude  any  possible  additional  confidence  effect  that  new  emergency  instruments,  including 
SURE,  may  have  had  on  the  confidence  of  economic  agents  and  the  interest  rate  spread  for  Member  States’ 
sovereign borrowing. 

20 

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%ESITFREuroAreaBEDELTSKELSICYEEPTATNLFIMTLULVIEGoodNot goodCan't decideDon't know / n/a 
 
 
 
                                                           
credit  rating  and  the  liquidity  of  the  SURE  bonds32.  The  largest  savings  were  recorded  by 
Member States with lower credit ratings. 

IV. THE CONTINUATION OF THE EXCEPTIONAL OCCURRENCES THAT JUSTIFY THE APPLICATION 
OF THE SURE REGULATION 

This  section  reports  on  the  continuation  of  the  exceptional  occurrences  that  justify  the 
application of the SURE instrument, as required by the SURE Regulation33.  

Most EU Member States avoided reintroducing broad-based, strict containment measures 
throughout the winter, but uncertainty surrounding the virus remains  elevated.  The rapid 
spread of the Omicron variant throughout the winter showed the speed with which the trajectory 
of the pandemic can shift.  Despite a lower risk of severe disease and death  than  with  previous 
SARS-CoV-2  variants,  the  higher  transmissibility  of  Omicron  has  resulted  in  increases  in 
hospitalisation and strain on health care systems globally, and may lead to significant morbidity, 
particularly in vulnerable populations34. While most Member States did not reintroduce full-scale 
lockdowns,  certain  sectors  remained  particularly  affected  by  restrictions  in  at  the  end  of  2021 
and  beginning  of  2022.  As  of  6  March  2022,  the  overall  epidemiological  situation  in  the 
EU/EEA was characterised by a high but decreasing overall case notification rate, according to 
the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)35. While the Omicron wave has 
peaked in most countries, transmission continues to increase amongst the elderly and increasing 
trends  in  death  rates  are  forecast  in  10  countries  as  of  6  March.  The  ECDC  noted  the 
epidemiological situation was of high or very high concern in 15 EU/EEA countries. Differences 
remain across countries  and the interpretation of trends in surveillance data is  now challenging 
due to differing and rapidly changing testing regimes across Member States 

The growth momentum that was building in 2021 slowed at the end of the year.  After re-
gaining  the  pre-pandemic  output  level  in  summer  2021,  the  European  economy  slowed 
somewhat  due  to  the  Omicron-driven  surge  in  COVID-19  infections,  high  energy  prices  and 
continued  supply-side  disruptions.  While  some  restrictions  have  been  reintroduced,  they  have 
generally  been  of a milder or more targeted nature than in  previous waves. The Commission’s 
Winter Forecast (published prior to the invasion of Ukraine) expected growth to pick up in the 
second quarter and remain robust over the forecast horizon, leading EU GDP to increase by 4.0% 

32 A breakdown of interest savings by Member State is available in Table 4 of the second bi-annual report on SURE. 
Further detail on the methodology can be found in Section III of the Quarterly Report on the Euro Area Vol. 20, No 
2 (2021). 
33  Article  14(1)  of  the  SURE  Regulation.  In  any  case,  the  period  of  availability  of  the  Instrument  during  which  a 
CID can be adopted shall end on 31 December 2022, according to Art 12(3) of the SURE Regulation. Beyond this 
date,  this  support  can  be  extended  by  the  Council  every  6  months  (if  financial  resources  are  still  available), 
according to Art 12(4).  
34  See  World  Health  Organization:  https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/enhancing-readiness-for-omicron-
(b.1.1.529)-technical-brief-and-priority-actions-for-member-states  
35 See ECDC country overview report, week 9 2022: https://covid19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/index.html  

21 

 
 
 
                                                           
in  2022  and  2.8%  in  2023.  The  inflation  forecast  for  the  EU  was  revised  up  to  3.9%  in  2022, 
remaining well above the ECB’s 2% target.  

Exceptional  uncertainty  now  surrounds  the  economic  outlook  given  the  geopolitical 
situation in Ukraine. The invasion of Ukraine, and its consequences for security and stability, is 
likely to negatively impact growth, including through effects on financial markets, further energy 
price  pressures,  persistent  supply  chain  bottlenecks  and  confidence  effects.  The  impact  of  the 
current COVID-19 wave could also last longer than anticipated and further disrupt supply chains. 
Both of these factors could lead to higher than expected inflation if additional costs are passed on 
to  consumers.  On  the  other  hand,  household  demand  could  accelerate  on  the  back  of  large 
savings, while the RRF could provide an even stronger stimulus to investment, though risks are 
now tilted to the downside.  

Policy measures have become increasingly targeted, supported by the RRF to facilitate the 
recovery. This requires a shift away from temporary emergency relief such as SURE. The RRF 
is  promoting  an  investment-rich  recovery  and  growth-enhancing  reforms,  including  to  help 
address  the  uneven  impact  of  the  pandemic  across  households  and  businesses.  Reskilling  and 
upskilling  is  an  important  element  of  this,  in  the  context  of  the  EU’s  commitment  to  the 
European Pillar of Social Rights and the promotion of digitalisation and the green transition36.  

As the instrument will continue to be available until 31 December 2022, financial assistance 
under SURE can continue to be granted to address severe economic disturbances caused by 
the  COVID-19  pandemic.  Around  EUR  5.6  billion  remains  available  under  SURE,  which  is 
more than the total top-up requests submitted by 7 Member States thus far  (EUR 3.8 billion) in 
the context of a second round of requests. 

V. INFORMATION ON NATIONAL AUDIT AND CONTROL SYSTEMS 

5.1  The reporting obligation on audit and control systems  

The Commission control systems ensure the absence of fraud between the Union, as lender, 
and the Member State, as borrower. Notably, the Commission has in place controls to prevent 
irregularities  or  fraud  with  respect  to  the  reporting  of  data  by  Member  States,  either  when 
requesting  a  loan  or  subsequently  on  the  use  of  a  loan.  Should  any  cases  be  suspected,  the 
provisions  in  the  Loan  Agreement  are  available  for  the  Commission  to  act  and  conduct 
investigations.  The  Commission  undertakes  this task  in  full  respect  of  the  competencies  of  the 
Member  States  and  does  not  have  a  mandate  to  assess  and  monitor  the  use  of  SURE  loans  by 
final  recipients  in  the  Member  States.  Specifically,  SURE,  together  with  its  implementation, 

36 See The Porto Declaration of 8 May 2021 and the Commission Recommendation on Effective Active Support to 
Employment following the COVID-19 crisis (EASE).  

22 

 
 
 
                                                           
should not intrude in any way in the design of national social security systems, neither generally 
nor when concerning short-time work, which remains the prerogative of Member States37,38.   

Separately  from  the  Commission’s  control  systems,  the  Member  States  as  borrowers  are 
required  to  ensure  the  proper  use  of  funds  at  national  level,  prevent  irregularities  and 
fraud  and  recover  misused  funds.  This  obligation  stems  from  Article  13(1)  of  the  SURE 
Regulation  and  Article  220(5)  of  the  Financial  Regulation.  Specifically,  under  the  Loan 
Agreement,  each  Member  State  benefiting  from  SURE  should  regularly  check  that  amounts 
borrowed under the Facility are used in accordance with the SURE Regulation, the CID and the 
Loan Agreement and ensure that appropriate measures to prevent irregularities and fraud are in 
place.  In case of irregular or improper use of the amounts borrowed,  the Member State  should 
take  legal  actions  to  recover  such  amounts.  This  is  complemented  by  the  obligation  on  the 
Member  State  to  investigate  and  treat  cases  of  fraud,  corruption  or  any  other  illegal  activity 
detrimental to the EU’s financial interests, in relation to the management of the loan. 

Member  States  are  required  to  provide  the  Commission  information  on  national  control 
and audit  systems  relevant for SURE to ensure the respect of their  obligations under the 
Loan  Agreement.  To  that  end,  the  Commission  carried  out  an  ad-hoc  survey  of  beneficiary 
Member  States  on  18  January  2022.  All  Member  States  replied  to  this  questionnaire.  The 
summary of the results as reported by Member States is provided in Section 5.2.  

5.2  Main results from the questionnaire 

5.2.1 Responsible institutions for control and audit 

The  institutional  structure  of  national  control  and  audit  systems  varies  greatly  across 
Member States. In around half of the Member States, the institutions responsible for control are 
not  responsible  for  audit.  In  the  other  half  of  Member  States,  some  institutions  perform  both 
control and audit while the other institutions perform either only control or only audit. Controls 
are often done by the Ministry of Labour (10 Member States), by another ministry (e.g. Ministry 
of  Finance,  Ministry  for  Social  Security,  Ministry  of  Family  and  Social  Policy,  Ministry  of 
Culture),  public  employment  services,  labour  inspectorates,  social  security  funds,    or  revenue 
agencies  (Graph  15).  Audits  are  performed  most  often  by  a  national  supreme  audit  body  or  a 
ministry (e.g. Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Labour) (Graph 16).  

37 According to Recital 13 of the SURE Regulation, when deciding upon the amount of a loan, the Council should 
fully respect the competence of the Member States. 
38  See  paragraph  17  of  the  Eurogroup  Report  on  the  comprehensive  economic  policy  response  to  the  COVID-19 
pandemic of 9 April 2020. 

23 

 
 
 
 
                                                           
Graph  15:  Responsible  institutions  for 
control (number of Member States) 

Graph 16: Responsible institutions for audit  
(number of Member States) 

Source: Member States’ questionnaires 

Source: Member States’ questionnaires 

In almost all Member States, the institutions performing control and audit of the measures 
supported by SURE were already in place before the COVID-19 pandemic. In one Member 
State,  new  institutions  were  specifically  put  in  place  for  the  measures  supported  by  SURE.  In 
two Member States, new audit and control systems were put in place for one particular measure 
or a subpart of it only, in addition to the existing ones.   

5.2.2. Implementation of control and audit systems 

All  Member  States  ran  controls  on  measures  supported  under  SURE.  All  Member  States 
performed, at a minimum, administrative verifications/desk reviews of the requests for payment 
to ensure that SURE funds were used in line with their purpose (Graph 17). In addition, almost 
85% of Member States performed ex-post controls and about half of them did on-the-spot checks 
to prevent fraud and irregularities.  

All  Member  States  checked  that  eligibility  criteria  were  fulfilled  (Graph  18).  In  addition, 
more  than  three  quarters  of  Member  States  checked  that  workers  benefitting  from  the  support 
were kept employed and that the support was used by beneficiaries for the intended purpose.  

Based on the response to the survey, further clarity needs to be brought by Member States 
on the existence and the scope of the audit. More than half of the Member States reported that 
they have audited either the procedure to award payments and/or the beneficiaries or performed 
other types of audit. Although all Member States have controls on SURE in place, one Member 
State  reported  that  no  audits  have  been  performed  for  the  SURE-supported  measures.  Another 
Member  State  reported  that  audits  were  conducted  except  for  some  measures  that  represent  a 
comparatively small share of the total envelope.  

All  Member  States  performed  controls  and  audits  systematically,  in  most  cases  based  on 
risk  and/or  statistical  sampling.  In  some  cases,  controls  have  been  automatic  for  all 
beneficiaries through specific IT systems. Eight Member States reported to have also performed 
ad-hoc controls and audits.  

24 

012345678910111213141516171819local authoritiesa specialised agencyMinistry of FinanceMinistry of Labourothers (please specify who)012345678910111213141516171819local authoritiesa specialised agencyMinistry of LabourMinistry of Financeothers (please specify who)national supreme audit body 
 
 
 
 
 
Going forward,  most  Member States do not  envisage controls and audit other than those 
that  they  are  already  ongoing  or  implemented.  Only  two  Member  States  plan  to  have 
additional control and audit of specific measures in the second half of 2022.  

Graph  17:  Type  of  controls  and  audits 
(number of Member States) 

Graph  18:  The  focus  of  the  controls  and/or 
audits  (number of Member States) 

Source: Member States’ questionnaires 

Source: Member States’ questionnaires 

5.2.3. Incidence of irregularities or fraud and response to it 

In all Member States but one, controls and audits detected  instances of irregularities and 
fraud. In addition,  suspicions  of irregularities or fraud have been reported to  the authorities in 
almost all Member States. In all such cases, investigations took place. In the case of confirmed 
irregularities or fraud, 13 Member States took legal action to recover improperly used funds. In 
some  Member  States,  funds  were  recovered  without  legal  action.  One  Member  State  reported 
that the detected irregularities or fraud have not been confirmed yet.   

Member  States  reported  similar  types  of  irregularities  or  fraud.  The  most  commonly 
reported  irregularities  concerned  the  lack  of  or  insufficient  drop  in  turnover  to  be  eligible  for 
support, the dismissal of workers during the period of receipt of wage subsidies (or shortly after), 
the  non-payment  of  the  salary  share  required  from  the  employer,  the  failure  to  disburse  the 
amount granted to  employees in  full,  and the  claim for support for employees who returned to 
work and did not have obstacles to work and for employees who actually worked as normally. In 
some  cases,  firms  applied  for  support  for  employment  relationships  that  did  not  exist  or  used 
support for newly hired employees instead of existing employees.  In other cases, firms applied 
for  several  measures  at  the  same  time,  when  they  were  legally  entitled  to  only  one  measure. 
Firms also falsely declared the type of activity to be eligible for support. 

All  Member  States  documented  their  work  on  irregularities  or  fraud.  Member  States  are 
documenting irregularities inter alia in inspection/assessment reports, notes, checklists, detailed 
spreadsheets, memos, fund files or audit files. 

25 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
VI. REPORTING OBLIGATIONS UNDER THE EU SURE SOCIAL BOND FRAMEWORK 

This  report  goes beyond the  reporting  obligation  of  the SURE regulation, also  complying 
with the reporting requirement under the EU SURE Social Bond Framework39. The latter 
requires reporting on the allocation of SURE proceeds, type of expenditure and impact of SURE.  

The  breakdown  of  SURE  proceeds  by  beneficiary  Member  State  and  by  type  of  Eligible 
Social  Expenditure  is  provided  in  Sections  1.1  and  2.2,  respectively.  As  of  February  2022, 
95% of the EUR 94 billion allocated had been disbursed to Member States and 98% of this has 
already been spent.  

SURE  public  expenditure  continues  to  be  well-aligned  with  the  UN  Sustainable 
Development  Goals  (SDGs).  A  breakdown  of  SURE  public  expenditure  by  eligible  social 
expenditure, as outlined in the Social Bond Framework, shows that 95% is spent on reducing the 
risk  of  unemployment  and  loss  of  income.  As  illustrated  in  Graph  19,  this  supports  SDG  8 
(Decent Work and Economic Growth)). The remaining 5% is spent on health-related measures, 
which supports SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being).  

The impact of SURE is reported on in Section 2.3 and Section 3. Estimates are provided of 
the number of people and firms supported by SURE in both 2020 and 2021. SURE contributed to 
protecting almost 1½ million jobs that were saved in 2020, as shown in Section 3.1. As shown in 
the  second  report,  Member  States  are  estimated  to  have  saved  EUR  8.2  billion  in  interest 
payments. 

Graph 19: Social Bond Framework and SDG mapping 

SDG 3: Good 
Health and 
Well-being 

SDG 8: 
Decent 
Work and 
Economic 
Growth 

39 The EU SURE Social Bond Framework defines a standard, which provides investors with assurances that the EU 
bonds issued within this framework relate to projects serving a true social purpose. The framework is therefore in 
line with the ICMA Social Bond Principles. 

26 

Expenditure to reduce the risk of unemployment and loss of income95%Expenditure on health-related measures, in particular in the workplace5% 
 
  
                                                           
 
ANNEX: Further detail on SURE transactions and disbursements 

Table A1:  Disbursements to Member States under SURE (in EUR billion) 

1st EU SURE 
issuance  
Transaction: 
20.10.2020  
Disbursement: 
27.10.2020 

2nd EU SURE 
issuance 
Transaction: 
10.11.2020 
Disbursement: 
17.11.2020 

3rd EU SURE 
issuance 
Transaction: 
24.11.2020 
Disbursement: 
01.12.2020 

4th EU SURE 
issuance 
Transaction: 
26.01.2021 
Disbursement: 
02.02.2021 

5th EU SURE 
issuance 
Issuance: 
09.03.2021 
Disbursement: 
16.03.2021 

6th EU SURE 
issuance 
Issuance: 
23.03.2021 
Disbursement: 
30.03.2021 

7th EU SURE 
issuance 
Issuance: 
18.05.2021 
Disbursement: 
25.05.2021 

10y  20y  Total  5y  30y  Total 

15y 

2.0 

0.3  0.2 

0.2  0.1 

0.5 

0.3 

7y  30y  Total 

15y 

5y  25y  Total  8y  25.6y  Total 

1.3  0.7  2.0 

1.3  0.9 

2.2 

1.1  0.9 

0.5 

0.3  0.2 

2.0 

0.5 

0.2  0.1  0.2 

0.1  0.0 

0.1 

1.0 

1.0 

1.0 

1.0  1.0 

2.0 

0.7 

0.7 

0.2 

0.2  0.1  0.3 

0.1  0.1 

1.6  0.9 

0.2 

2.5 

Country 

Total 
loan 
amount 

Belgium 

Bulgaria 

Croatia 

Cyprus 

Czechia 

Estonia 

Greece 

Hungary 

Ireland 

8.2 

0.5 

1.0 

0.6 

2.0 

0.2 

5.3 

0.7 

2.5 

Italy 

27.4 

5.5  4.5  10.0  3.1  3.4 

Latvia 

0.3 

Lithuania 

1.0 

Malta 

0.4 

0.1  0.0 

0.2  0.1 

0.1  0.0 

6.5 

0.1 

0.3 

0.1 

4.5 

4.5 

3.9 

0.0  0.0  0.1 

0.3 

0.1 

1.3  1.2 

0.7  1.2 

2.5 

1.9 

0.8 

0.1  0.0 

0.2  0.2 

0.1  0.1 

0.8 

0.1 

0.4 

0.2 

1.6 

2.4 

1.5  0.9 

Poland 

11.2 

1.0  0.0  1.0 

2.6  1.7  4.3 

1.4 

1.4 

1.1  0.5 

Portugal 

Romania 

Slovakia 

5.9 

4.1 

0.6 

Slovenia  

1.1 

3.0 

3.0 

0.3 

0.2  0.0 

0.2 

Spain 

21.3 

3.5  2.5  6.0  2.9  1.2 

4.0 

0.5  0.4  0.9 

1.0  1.0 

Total 

94.4 

10.0  7.0  17.0  8.0  6.0  14.0 

8.5 

10.0  4.0  14.0 

0.3 

2.9 

9.0 

27 

Total 
disbursem
ents 

% of total 
requested 

Avg. 
maturi
ty 

8.2 

0.5 

1.0 

0.6 

2.0 

0.2 

5.3 

0.5 

2.5 

100.0% 

14.7 

100.0% 

15.0 

100.0% 

14.3 

100.0% 

14.7 

100.0% 

10.1 

100.0% 

15.0 

100.0% 

14.5 

77.4% 

14.7 

100.0% 

14.7 

27.4 

100.0% 

14.8 

0.3 

1.0 

0.4 

8.2 

5.4 

3.0 

0.6 

1.1 

100.0% 

14.6 

100.0% 

14.7 

100.0% 

14.6 

73.3% 

13.0 

91.2% 

14.6 

73.2% 

14.6 

100.0% 

14.9 

100.0% 

14.8 

2.4  1.7 

4.1 

1.9  1.4 

3.4 

21.3 

100.0% 

14.7 

8.0  5.0 

13.0  8.1  6.0 

14.1 

89.6 

94.9% 

14.5