The EU environmental foresight system (FORENV) : final report of 2020-21 annual cycle emerging issues impacting the delivery of a zero-pollution ambition by 2050 : emerging issues impacting the delivery of a zero-pollution ambition by 2050.
Date: 2022-02-18
Institutions: Directorate-General for Environment
Subjects: EU environmental policy, adaptation to climate change, coronavirus disease, environmental impact, environmental monitoring, environmental risk prevention, foresight, health risk, information analysis, innovation, pollution control measures, reduction of gas emissions, report, risk management, social impact, sustainable development, technological change, toxic substance

The EU Environmental 
Foresight System (FORENV) 

Final report of 2020-21 annual 
cycle 

Emerging issues impacting the delivery of a zero-
pollution ambition by 2050 

Environment 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
This report has been written by Owen White (Collingwood Environmental Planning), Kenisha Garnett (Cranfield 
University), Tony Zamparutti (Milieu), Rolands Sadauskis and Spela Kolaric (both Collingwood Environmental 
Planning) under project number 2021.3984 for the European Commission, Directorate-General Environment. 

The  European  Environment  Agency  (EEA)  Scientific  Committee and  the  Scientific  Committee  on  Health, 
Environmental  and  Emerging  Risks  (SCHEER)  contributed  to  this  report  by  reviewing  the  emerging  issue 
characterisations presented here.  

The  valuable  contributions  of  the  following  EEA  Scientific  Committee  and  SCHEER  members  are  kindly 
acknowledged:  

EEA  Scientific  Committee:  Prof.  Robert  Barouki  (Issue  8);  Prof.  Claire  Dupont  (Issue  3);  Prof.  Fabio  Fava 
(Issue  9);  Prof.  Ana  Iglesias  (Issue  4);  Dr  Louis  Meuleman  (Issue  8);  Dr  Jaroslav  Mysiak  (Issue  10);  Dr 
Leonor Tarrasón (Issue 7); Prof. Susana Viegas (Issue 8); Dr Karl Vranken (Issue 10). 

SCHEER (review of Issues 1, 2, 5, 6 and 9): Roberto Bertollini; Teresa Borges; Wim de Jong; Pim de Voogt; 
Raquel Duarte-Davidson; Peter Hoet; Rodica Mariana Ion; Renate Krätke; Demosthenes Panagiotakos; Ana 
Proykova;  Theodoros  Samaras;  Marian  Scott  (Rapporteur);  Emanuela  Testai;  Theo  Vermeire;  Marco  Vighi 
(Chair); Sergey Zacharov. 

To cite this publication: The EU Environmental Foresight System (FORENV) – Final report of 2020-21 annual 
cycle – Emerging issues impacting the delivery of a zero-pollution ambition by 2050, Publications Office of the 
European Union, Luxembourg, 2022 ISBN 978-92-76-40682-2, doi 10.2779/653635 

February 2022 

EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Directorate-General for Environment 
Directorate A – General Affairs, Knowledge and Resources 
Unit A.3— Green Knowledge & Research Hub, LIFE 

E-mail:  ENV-FORENV@ec.europa.eu

European Commission 
B-1049 Brussels

LEGAL NOTICE 

The information and views set out in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the 
official opinion of the Commission. The Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in 
this study. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on the Commission’s behalf may be held responsible 
for the use which may be made of the information contained therein. 

More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://www.europa.eu). 

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2022 

PDF 

KH-02-21-983-EN-N 

ISBN 978-92-76-40682-2 

doi:10.2779/653635 

© European Union, 2022 
Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.  The reuse policy of European Commission 
documents is regulated by Decision 2011/833/EU (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). 

For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not under the copyright of the 
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION, DG ENVIRONMENT 
FORENV 2020-21: EMERGING ISSUES IMPACTING THE DELIVERY OF A ZERO POLLUTION AMBITION BY 2050 

Contents 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

ABSTRACT 

1 
1.1 
1.2 

2 

3 

3.1 
3.2 

3.3 
3.4 
3.5 

4 
4.1 
4.2 
4.3 
4.4 
4.5 

FORENV Rationale and Method 
Background and rationale 
Objectives and process 

Summary of the Ten Priority Emerging Issues 

Clusters of Disruptive Changes from the Priority Emerging 
Issues 
Cluster 1: Pervasive digital tools and lifestyles 
Cluster 2: Transformations in where and how we live and 
work 
Cluster 3: New pollution monitoring and data methods 
Cluster 4: Living buildings and new materials 
Cluster 5: Multi-faceted food system revolutions 

Policy Questions and Concluding Reflections 
Pollution risks from territorial shifts 
Data informs or misinforms citizen behaviour 
Scaling up new technologies 
International cooperation for zero pollution 
Concluding reflections: towards strategic foresight for zero 
pollution 

Appendices 

Appendix A Full Characterisation of Emerging Issues 

Appendix B Validation of Issues by Scientific Committees 

Appendix C Key to Icons Used in Issue Clusters 

5 

10 

11 
11 
11 

18 

23 
24 

25 
26 
27 
28 

29 
29 
29 
30 
30 

30 

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

Action needed to improve the knowledge base for European Union environment policy set out in 
Priority  Objective  5  of  the  7th  Environmental  Action  Programme1  includes  ‘that  (by  2020)  the 

understanding of, and the ability to evaluate and manage, emerging environmental and climate 

risks  are  greatly  improved’.    In  response,  in  2017,  the  Environment  Knowledge  Community 
(EKC2),  established  the  EU  foresight  system  for  the  systematic  identification  of  emerging 

environmental issues (FORENV).  FORENV is a collaborative process, implemented by members 

of the EKC, with the overall aim: 

To identify, characterise and assess emerging issues that may represent risks or opportunities to 

Europe’s  environment,  and  to  communicate  these  results  to  policy-makers  and  other 

stakeholders,  encouraging  appropriate  and  timely  action  to  be  taken.    Ultimately  the  aim is  to 

enable  policy  makers  and  other  stakeholders  to  prevent  or  effectively  manage  emerging  risks, 

and to ensure that opportunities are identified and exploited.  

FORENV  is  based  on  a  systematic,  5-

step approach (see image) intended to 

provide  regular  and  timely  updates  to 

EU  senior  and  middle  management  on 

issues which present potential risks and 

opportunities for the environment.  The 

system  was  piloted  in  2017  and  two 

cycles  were  successfully  completed  in 

2018  –  2019  and  2019  -  2020.    This 

report  is  on  the  third  annual  cycle, 

which  ran  from  September  2020  – 

December  2021,  and  focused  on  the 

topic of emerging societal, economic or 

environmental  issues  impacting  our 

ability 

to  deliver  a  zero-pollution 

ambition for a toxic-free environment by 2050 (see Box A). 

In each annual cycle FORENV identifies 10 emerging issues which are characterised using expert 

knowledge and desk-based research into existing relevant literature and evidence.   

In its first two cycles the output of FORENV has been a detailed characterisation and visual 1-

page summary of each emerging environmental issue (see Box B).  The characterisations include 
information on: drivers of the issue’s emergence3; potential implications of the issue; associated 

risks  and  opportunities  for  Europe’s  environment  and  human  health;  key  uncertainties  and 

research needs; and, relevant EU policy.  In cycle 3 an additional output has been prepared: a 

1 Decision No 1386/2013/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 November 2013 
on a General Union Environment Action Programme to 2020 ‘Living well, within the limits of our 

planet’ 
2 The EKC is a cross-institutional collaboration set up in 2015 between the European Commission’s 
Directorates-General ENV, CLIMA, RTD, ESTAT, JRC and the European Environment Agency with 
the intention to improve the generation and sharing of EU environmental knowledge. 
3 Emergence is expressed as Short-term: 1 - 5 years; Medium-term: 5 - 10 years; Long-term: 
10+ years 

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Synthesis Report providing a cross-cutting analysis of the outcomes and presenting infographics 

of  five  key  clusters  of  changes  related  to  the  priority  emerging  issues,  together  with  key 

questions  for  zero  pollution  policy  arising  from  these.    In  this  cycle  the  five  overarching 

infographics  have  replaced  the  individual  priority  emerging  issue  visual  1-page  summaries.    A 

short summary of each of these five key clusters is presented below. 

Box A: Topic for FORENV 2020-21 – Emerging issues impacting the delivery of a zero 

pollution ambition by 2050 

Pollution has been at the centre stage of EU environment policy for many decades but all too 

often  the  specific  policies  (on  air,  water,  soil)  have  been  reactive  and  not  proactive.  The 

precautionary principle and the desire for prevention, rather than control or remediation, has 

been long expressed but not always been successfully applied. The European Green Deal and 

the Strategic Foresight agenda now offer an opportunity to start a more systematic and regular 

process which ultimately helps to identify the context (trends, drivers). This will contribute to 

the  identification  of  pathway(s)  towards  a  zero  pollution  world  and  identify  benefits, 

opportunities  and  risks  early  on  in  the  policy  discussions.  In  this  respect,  the  pollutants  of 

emerging  concern  for  human  health  or  the  environment  (biodiversity)  are  of  relevance. 

Moreover,  economic  and  societal  issues  and  trends  will  have  an  influence  on  our  ‘polluting’ 

behaviours and patterns. But we don’t necessarily know which trends have the most beneficial, 

which ones the most detrimental effect. One such example of a trend is the link to the digital 

transition which could be explored. This would then also allow for a contribution to one of the 

key topics in the Commission’s foresight agenda, namely: ‘Deepening the twinning of the digital 

and green transitions’. As  overall orientations for the elaboration of the concrete issues, the 

following are proposed:  

Which emerging societal, economic or environmental issues (i.e. benefits, opportunities and/or 

threats) will impact our ability to deliver a zero-pollution ambition for a toxic-free environment 

by 2050? 

Cluster 1: Pervasive digital tools and lifestyles 

• 

• 

Life  and  work  are  becoming  progressively  more  digitalised  as  many  services  and  activities 

move  online.    This  is  driven  by  technology,  but  also  social  factors  like  avoiding  disease 

transmission and seeking quality of life, as seen during Covid-19. These changes will influence 

how we consume goods and where we choose to live. 

Emerging  tools  like  virtual  and  augmented  reality  may  accelerate  changes  to  business 

practices already transformed through online meetings. This is coupled with the emergence 

of  ‘virtual  lifestyle  services’  that  are  replacing  traditional  physical  services.  Associated 

reductions in travel, consumption and production of physical goods, could bring significant, 

though uncertain, pollution alleviation.  

•  Digital devices and infrastructure often have short life cycles and require rare minerals and 
metals, with pollution risks from urban or conventional mining.  An increase in the ownership 

of multiple devices, and greater use of higher footprint services like video streaming, can also 

bring  novel  pollution  risks.    People’s  mental  health  is  also  at  risk  due  to  less  physical  and 

social engagement. 

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Cluster  2:  Transformations  in  where  and 

how we live and work 

• 

The  adoption  of  digital  tools  and  internet-

based systems and services may be sped up 

by future disasters (such as pandemics) and 

environmental  change.    This  could  result  in 

more  flexible  work  patterns  and  changes  in 

how people live, as well as how they consume. 

• 

Permanent  flexible  and  home-based  working 

may lead to an exodus of office workers from 

urban  centres  to  urban  peripheries,  small 

towns and rural areas.  Areas currently facing 

depopulation and its associated consequences 

may  therefore  be  revitalised.    Depopulated 

urban  centres  may  lead  to  the  need  to 

repurpose  or 

reconstruct  offices,  other 

buildings and infrastructure. 

Box B: Emerging environmental 
issues 

FORENV presents emerging issues or 
changes to well-known issues in 
Europe’s environment. Emerging 
issues reflect observed changes or 
developments in the environment that 
occur as a result of new research or 
knowledge, a shift in geographical or 
temporal scales of impact, or due to 
heightened awareness or new 
response measures to issues. 
Emerging issues reflect current 
evidence of possible future change to 
the environment that is either positive 
or negative. These issues are assessed 
over 3 time horizons showing when an 
impact (either positive or negative) is 
likely to occur in Europe – short-term 
(1 - 5 years), medium term (5 - 10 
years) and long-term (10+ years). 

• 

In the longer term, some city centres may experience a renaissance as they become more 

affordable for young, less affluent people.  A widening demographic divide between urban and 

rural  populations  could,  however,  lead  to  increased  social  segmentation  and  segregation.  

However  long-term  decline  and  more  derelict  buildings  in  areas  such  as  business  districts 

could lead to pollution and other environmental and health risks. 

Cluster 3: New pollution monitoring and data methods 

•  Data and information on types and sources of pollution, along with our exposure to them, is 
becoming increasingly available.  New sensing, monitoring and communication technologies, 

including satellite technology, are facilitating this new data.  Developments in AI are helping 

us to understand the data better and inform our actions. 

•  Businesses  are  increasingly  focused  on  reducing  their  environmental  impacts.    A  greater 
availability of information on pollution sources could further stimulate businesses to address 

their own pollution emissions.   

•  Citizens could become more aware of their personal exposure to pollutants and of the pollution 
implications  of  their  consumption  choices.    This  may  amplify  pressure  on  authorities  and 

polluters to address pollution, increase transparency and regulation.  New and increased data 

could also highlight inequalities in pollution exposure, supporting a more just social landscape. 

Cluster 4: Living buildings and new materials 

• 

• 

The  extraction,  production,  transportation,  use  and  disposal  of  building  materials  causes 

significant environmental harm and pollution.  Research into new construction materials and 

approaches aims to reduce this by utilising regenerative, living materials.  Nanotechnology, 

synthetic biology, novel composites and sensors could soon be used in the construction sector. 

Traditional  biobased  materials  like  wood  or  bamboo  will  likely  be  used  alongside  new 

regenerative materials, including living building materials.  Through the use of these materials 

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buildings could potentially self-repair, provide a source of food and combat air or chemical 

pollution through absorption. 

• 

In  future  buildings  and  materials  could  interact  more  with  their  environment  and  nature.  

Some research suggests that via directed stimuli, buildings could even be grown rather than 

constructed.  This would mitigate against air, noise, soil and water pollution on building sites. 

Cluster 5: Multi-faceted food-system revolutions 

• 

• 

The  pollution  impacts  of  the  agriculture  sector,  and  livestock  especially,  is  of  increasing 

concern.    Synthetic  biology  and  cellular  agriculture may  offer  a  ‘greener’  way  of  producing 

meat,  dairy  and  other  foods.    As  the  required  technologies  advance,  cellular  agriculture 

facilities may soon become prevalent in Europe. 

There may also be an increased uptake of regenerative approaches to agriculture.  European 

farmers  may  become  ‘land-stewards’,  with  a  focus  on  high-quality  agricultural  products.  

Farmers could also be responsible for public goods such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity 

and watershed management. 

•  However, these changes could face resistance from farming communities and consumers due 
impacts on regional employment and cultures.  Synthetic and cellular foods may also be seen 

as ‘unnatural’; and food from regenerative agriculture may be too expensive.   

• 

The  EU’s  trading  partners  may  also  resist  import  restrictions  on  their  cheaper  intensively 

farmed  food  products.    A  balance  will  have  to  be  struck  between  satisfying  citizens  and 

reducing pollution from food systems, whilst ensuring resilience to potential shocks to supply. 

Key policy questions 

The  five  clusters  of  disruptive  developments  point  to  a  range  of  potentially  important  changes 

that individually and collectively suggest the emergence of new drivers and sources of pollution 

alongside  opportunities  to  reduce  the  pollution  burden  of  some  sectors.    Considering  these 

developments  and  associated  uncertainties,  some  key  questions  for  zero  pollution  policy  are 

identified.    These  are  intended  to  help  guide  potential  future  policy  discussions  and  identify 

opportunities but also where preventative action may be needed to manage future risks. 

1.  Pollution risks from territorial shifts  

Trends  in  urban  settlement  patterns  (Cluster  2)  and  digitalisation  (Cluster  1)  suggest  that 

pollution  pressures  in  and  around  cities  are  likely  to  change.    Currently,  key  pollution  sources 

outside  urban  areas  are  from  industry,  energy  production,  transport,  farming  and  agriculture.  

However, the nature of pollution drivers may change as more people move to live and work in 

rural  areas  and  urban  peripheries.    The  centres  of  cities  may  be  ‘hollowed  out’,  and  their 

peripheries  and  wider  rural  areas  may  emerge  as  the  focus  of  economic  activity,  especially  if 

digitalisation opens up opportunities for more dispersed working patterns and the replacement of 

physical with digital / online services.  These settlement and demographic changes will lead to 

the more traffic and economic activity, but infrastructure (e.g. mobility, waste management) may 

not be there to support these changes, creating future pollution pressures. 

•  Will  ‘urbanised’  hubs  emerge  in  areas  outside  cities,  and  how  can  the  pollution  risks  from 
these be managed?  How can the EU support non-urban areas to become more resilient in 

the face of possible future demographic developments and pollution trends? 

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2.  Data informs or misinforms citizen behaviour 

New technologies and tools are offering a range of new forms of monitoring (e.g. new types of 

sensor, personal pollution monitoring), and potentially a wealth of new pollution data that could 

be used by citizens, authorities and businesses (Cluster 3).  The development of tools for sharing 

information and collaborating online is creating greater public awareness of environmental and 

pollution issues, increasing involvement in environmental monitoring and action.  However, the 

Covid-19 pandemic combined with increasingly digital lives (Cluster 1), have illustrated the risks 

of misinformation and the power of internet-linked social movements to undermine the efficacy 

and  legitimacy  of  policy  interventions.    New  forms  of  environmental  pollution  monitoring  data, 

especially if personalised, could lead to a ‘cacophony’ of different narratives around pollution and 

risks to people.  This may undermine policy interventions or lead to a disproportionate focus on 

issues that in practice have relatively low health or environmental impacts.  On the other hand, 

access to more and new forms of data could be used by policy makers and authorities to ‘nudge’ 

people  to  lower  pollution  lifestyles,  for  example  through  changes  in  consumption  and  mobility 

choices. 

•  How  can  policy  and  stakeholder  actions  promote  digital  developments  that  increase  public 
awareness  of  pollution,  address  the  misrepresentation  of  information  online  (e.g.  social 

media) and encourage people towards lower-pollution lifestyles? 

3.  Scaling up new technologies 

As advances in nanotechnology and synthetic biology continue to accelerate, they can bring new 

construction materials such as living building materials (Cluster 4) as well as cellular agriculture 

products (Cluster 5) that reduce many drivers of pollution (for example agri-chemicals and land-

use associated with traditional agriculture or the extraction and processing of traditional building 

materials).  However new materials and production methods can create new risks to health and 

the  environment.    This  is  most  evident  when  they  are  scaled  up,  for  example  large  cellular 

agriculture  production  facilities  could  present  a  new  source  of  chemical  and  other  forms  of 

pollution, and new building materials could lead to uncertain and unintended long-term pollution 

and human health risks. 

•  How can the EU stimulate innovation with new technologies while identifying and managing 

possible pollution risks as these are scaled up? 

4.  International cooperation for zero pollution 

The clusters are focused predominantly on possible emerging trends in the EU, but some clusters 

reflect trends that have international dimensions that will affect Europe.  For example, advances 

in synthetic biology and cellular agriculture (Cluster 5) in other parts of the world are likely to 

influence  food  production  and  consumption  in  Europe.    Similarly,  digital  tools  and  lifestyles 

(Cluster 1) in the EU will be influenced by digital products developed elsewhere.  For an issue not 

included in the clusters, the Race to Space (see Annex 1), private and public investment in the 

development of space technology and launches outside the EU are crucial drivers. 

•  How  can  the  EU,  including  public  bodies  and  stakeholders,  strengthen  interregional  and 
international  cooperation  on  emerging  risks  (e.g.  pollution  from  increased  launches,  new 

forms  of  pollution  in  space)  and  opportunities  (e.g.  from  experiments  in  space,  improved 

earth observation) that will affect the achievement of our zero pollution ambition? 

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ABSTRACT 

Each year FORENV – the EU Foresight System for Emerging Environmental Issues – identifies and 

characterises 10 priority emerging issues of potential importance to the European environment 

and  environmental  policy.    In  its  third  cycle  (2020-21)  FORENV  explored  emerging  societal, 

economic or environmental issues that may impact, positively or negatively, our ability to deliver 

a  zero-pollution  ambition for  a  toxic-free  environment  by  2050.    This  focus  of  FORENV  was  to 

inform  thinking  and  discussion  related  to  the  implementation  of  the  Zero  Pollution  Action  Plan 

(COM(2021) 400 final).  Specifically, FORENV outputs are intended to support the establishment 

in 2022 of the zero pollution monitoring and outlook framework and provide input to stakeholder 

engagement  through  the  Zero  Pollution  Stakeholder  Forum.    The  10  priority  emerging  issues 

identified relate to social, economic and technological developments, including, among others, a 

shift to increasingly digital lifestyles, the emergence of new tools and technology for monitoring 

and communicating pollution data, advancements in materials, cellular and synthetic biology, and 

an  accelerating  race  to  space.    To  enhance  policy  relevance,  a  synthesis  assessment  was  also 

completed,  which  identified  five  key  clusters  of  change:  pervasive  digital  tools  and  lifestyles; 

transformations in where and how we live and work; new pollution monitoring and data methods; 

living buildings and new materials; and multi-faceted food system revolutions.  These clusters are 

presented together with associated implications for pollution, uncertainties and key questions for 

policy. 

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1 

FORENV RATIONALE AND METHOD 

1.1 

Background and rationale 

Priority Objective 5 of the 7th Environmental Action Programme4 established the need to improve 

the knowledge and evidence base for Union environment policy, to ensure, among other things, 

‘that  (by  2020)  the  understanding  of,  and  the  ability  to  evaluate  and  manage,  emerging 

environmental  and  climate  risks  are  greatly  improved’.    Responding  to  this,  in  2015  the 
Environment  Knowledge  Community  (EKC5),  decided  to  jointly  strengthen  the  Commission's 

capacity to consider emerging issues, including through foresight tools as well as to monitor and 

identify  opportunities  and  complex  risks  and 

anticipate  what 

their 

impact  could  be  on 

environment and society. 

Capitalising  and  bringing 

together  existing 

knowledge,  expertise  and  practices,  in  2017  the 

EKC partners established FORENV, the EU foresight 

system for the systematic identification of emerging 

environmental issues, whose overall aim is: 

To identify, characterise and assess emerging 

issues that may represent risks or 

opportunities to Europe’s environment, and to 

communicate these results to policy-makers 

and other stakeholders, encouraging 

appropriate and timely action to be taken.  

Ultimately the aim is to enable policy makers 

and other stakeholders to prevent or 

effectively manage emerging risks, and to 

ensure that opportunities are identified and 

exploited. 

1.2 

Objectives and process 

1.2.1  Objectives 

Policy context 

The need for the systematic 
identification of emerging 
environmental issues has been 
identified in the 7th Environmental 
Action Programme (Priority Objective 
5), and also aligns with the Better 
Regulation guidelines, which 
emphasise the importance of 
foresight and other forward-looking 
tools to combine quantitative 
modelling with systems thinking and 
a long-term approach. 

“… (by 2020) the understanding 
of, and the ability to evaluate and 
manage, emerging 
environmental and climate risks 
are greatly improved.” 
7th EAP Priority Objective 5 
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/action-
programme 

FORENV  is  a  collaborative  process  for  the  early  detection,  characterisation  and  assessment  of 

emerging environmental issues.  The FORENV system is implemented by the members of the EKC 

and has the following specific objectives: 

1.  Bring  together  in  a  systematic  framework  existing  knowledge  and  expertise  in  the 

European Union (EU) institutions and Member States to identify weak signals of change 

relevant for Europe’s environment and environment policy. 

4 Decision No 1386/2013/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 November 2013 
on a General Union Environment Action Programme to 2020 ‘Living well, within the limits of our 

planet’ 
5 The EKC is a cross-institutional collaboration set up in 2015 between the European Commission’s 
Directorates-General ENV, CLIMA, RTD, ESTAT, JRC and the European Environment Agency with 
the intention to improve the generation and sharing of EU environmental knowledge. 

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2.  Identify  10  emerging  environmental  issues  per  year  through  EU  internal  and  external 

expertise, based on their potential impact and policy relevance.  

3.  Characterise the detected issues on the basis of sound and up-to-date scientific literature 

and wider evidence, in order to highlight related risks and opportunities. 

4.  Communicate emerging issues to EU policy makers and stakeholders in a timely manner 

so that they are able to decide what action needs to be taken. 

FORENV as an approach is based on horizon scanning and the results developed and presented 

in this report do not represent a comprehensive review of emerging trends.  They are intended to 

raise  some  key  questions  and  stimulate  discussion  on  how  emerging  issues  could  change  the 

societal, economic and environmental landscape over the coming decades. 

Box 1: Horizon scanning as the basis of the EU Foresight System for the identification 
of emerging environmental issues and related opportunities and risks (FORENV) 

The methodology used for FORENV is based on horizon scanning.  Horizon scanning refers to the 
systematic identification and examination of potential future developments or drivers of change 
at the margins of current thinking and to explore the opportunities and threats to policy or society 
these may represent.  As a process horizon scanning involves desk based and expert-led identi-
fication of weak signals of change that may challenge current assumptions or trends. 

By making sense of such weak signals through its structured horizon scanning approach, FORENV 
identifies, characterises and communicates emerging issues to policy makers and risk managers 
so that they can decide what action needs to be taken.  As FORENV is not embedded within a 
specific policy unit it is not intended to develop or assess policy options, however the outcomes 
are expected to be relevant for environmental policy. 

More information on FORENV and the methodology used are available on the Commission website. 

1.2.2 

Process amendments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic 

FORENV is based on a systematic, 5-step approach, as detailed in the image below and in Table 

1.  It is intended to provide regular and timely updates to EU senior and middle management on 

issues which present potential risks and benefits to the environment. 

Early  in  the  third  annual  cycle  of  FORENV  it  became  clear  that  the  COVID-19  pandemic  would 

require some elements of the 5-step approach to be modified.  Planned physical meetings between 

the FORENV Secretariat and the EKC were moved online, and the sense making workshops (Step 

2) were redesigned for delivery virtually.  The pandemic response also impacted on the timing of 

validation by the Scientific Committees (Step 4), due to additional pressures on members related 

to  COVID-19.    Overall,  the  approach  was  successfully  adapted  and  the  cycle  completed.    It  is 

anticipated these process adaptations will be maintained for the fourth annual cycle (2021-22). 

February 2022  12 

 
 
 
 
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1.2.3 

Third annual cycle: supporting the zero pollution action plan 

In the third annual cycle of FORENV, which ran from September 2020 – December 2021, the focus 

was on emerging issues impacting the delivery of a zero pollution ambition by 2050 (see Box 1).  

The European Green Deal sets out a zero pollution ambition for a toxic free environment by 2050, 

as part of the overall green (and digital) transformation that the Commission foresees for the EU 

towards a climate-neutral, circular, clean and biodiverse region.  The Commission announced the 
presentation of a Zero Pollution Action Plan for air, water and soil in the second quarter of 20216.   

In this context, the identification of emerging trends, and future opportunities, benefits and risks 

is  considered  important.    This  was  already  recognised  by  the  Chemicals  Strategy  for 
Sustainability7 (which is part of the zero pollution ambition).  The Commission intends to ‘develop 
an EU early warning and action system for chemicals to ensure that EU policies address emerging 

chemical risks as soon as identified by monitoring and research’.  Moreover, in September 2020 

the Commission published the first Strategic Foresight Report – Charting the course towards a 
more  resilient  Europe8.    This  was  followed  in  September  2021  by  the  second  of  these  annual 
reports which explored a range of global trends affecting the EU’s capacity and freedom to act9.  

The intention is that ‘strategic foresight should inform major policy initiatives’.   

6 COM(2021) 400 final: https://ec.europa.eu/environment/strategy/zero-pollution-action-plan_en  
7 COM(2020) 667 
8 https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/strategic-planning/strategic-foresight/2020-strategic-foresight-report_en 
9 https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/strategic-planning/strategic-foresight/2021-strategic-foresight-report_en 

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By  focussing  on  pollution  in  this  cycle,  FORENV  aims  to  translate  this  recommendation  into 

practice for the zero pollution work. 

The overarching objectives of the third annual cycle of FORENV exercise were to: 

• 

• 

• 

Identify  and  analyse  potentially  emerging  issues  and  benefits  related  to  the  zero  pollution 

ambition; 

Feed into the establishment of the zero pollution monitoring and outlook framework and the 

EU early warning and action system for chemicals; 

Provide an initial input for a wider stakeholder engagement (e.g. with first results feeding into 

at the Green Week 2021) and a Zero Pollution Stakeholder Forum from 2022 onwards; and, 

•  Make strategic foresight an integral part of future zero pollution policy making.   

To meet these objectives, in addition to this Final Report, in this cycle FORENV has also prepared 
a more concise Synthesis Report10 including key questions for policy.   The Synthesis Report is 
intended to feed into forthcoming discussions in the zero pollution stakeholder platform (first half 

of  2022),  and  as  input  to  the  forthcoming  zero  pollution  monitoring  and  outlook  framework 

(foreseen  second  half  of  2022).    These  discussions  can  also  reflect  on  the  wider  issues  and 

challenges  presented  in  the  EU’s  strategic  foresight  reports,  linking  these  with  the  focussed 

foresight activity in FORENV.  As part of these reflections, the need for a more comprehensive 

strategic  foresight  for  zero  pollution  could  be  considered,  to  build  on  the  work  of  FORENV  and 

connect more concretely to future policy development. 

Box 1: Emerging societal, economic and environmental issues impacting our ability 

to deliver a zero-pollution ambition for a toxic-free environment by 2050 

Pollution has been at the centre stage of EU environment policy for many decades but all too 

often  the  specific  policies  (on  air,  water,  soil)  have  been  reactive  and  not  proactive.  The 

precautionary principle and the desire for prevention, rather than control or remediation, has 

been long expressed but not always been successfully applied. The European Green Deal and 

the Strategic Foresight agenda now offer an opportunity to start a more systematic and regular 

process which ultimately helps to identify the context (trends, drivers). This will contribute to 

the  identification  of  pathway(s)  towards  a  zero  pollution  world  and  identify  benefits, 

opportunities  and  risks  early  on  in  the  policy  discussions.  In  this  respect,  the  pollutants  of 

emerging  concern  for  human  health  or  the  environment  (biodiversity)  are  of  relevance. 

Moreover,  economic  and  societal  issues  and  trends  will  have  an  influence  on  our  ‘polluting’ 

behaviours and patterns. But we don’t necessarily know which trends have the most beneficial, 

which ones the most detrimental effect. One such example of a trend is the link to the digital 

transition which could be explored. This would then also allow for a contribution to one of the 

key topics in the Commission’s foresight agenda, namely: ‘Deepening the twinning of the digital 

and green transitions’.  

As overall orientations for the elaboration of the concrete issues, the following is proposed:  

10 EC, 2022, The EU Foresight System for the Environment, Synthesis Report, Delivering a zero 
pollution ambition by 2050 – inputs towards strategic foresight.  https://ec.europa.eu/environ-
ment/integration/research/forenv_en.htm  

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Which emerging societal, economic or environmental issues (i.e. benefits, opportunities and/or 

threats) will impact our ability to deliver a zero-pollution ambition for a toxic-free environment 

by 2050? 

1.2.4 

Evolution of the FORENV process to better support policy 

As described in Section 1.2.3, in its third cycle FORENV has provided support to a specific policy 

process:  the  zero  pollution  action  plan.    To  provide  this  support  required  an  evolution  of  the 

process, in particular to develop more policy relevant outcomes, achieved through cross-cutting 
assessment of the priority emerging issues and the preparation of a Synthesis Report11.   

This assessment and report were an additional activity not foreseen in the original FORENV pro-

cess and planning, which required additional time.  This additional work was successful and has 

resulted in FORENV producing outputs that are more directly relevant to and useful for policy.  In 

future FORENV cycles it may be important to consider if a more flexible approach to the timeframe 

of work is required to better align with and therefore support policy timeframes. 

1.2.5  Summary of outputs and structure of this report  

Reflecting  the  focus  of  the  third  cycle  of  FORENV  on  the  future  of  a  key  action  plan  related to 

implementing the European Green Deal (zero pollution action plan), the need was recognised for 

synthesised, accessible and policy relevant outputs.   

In  previous  cycles  the  outputs  have  consisted  of  a  main  report  (this  report) containing  the  10 

priority issue characterisations and a summary infographic for each.  In this third cycle additional 

assessment was completed to look across all 10 issues and identify key developments that may 

disrupt the pathway to zero pollution.  These developments were then grouped to form five key 

clusters of disruptive changes, from which key implications for pollution (risks, opportunities and 

uncertainties) and potentially important questions for policy were identified.  This cross-cutting 
assessment and related policy questions are presented in a separate Synthesis Report12. 

In  developing  the  synthesis  report,  infographics  were  prepared  for  each  cluster  and  these  are 

presented  in  Section  2  of  this  report.    Section  3  then  presents  the  key  questions  for  policy 

arising from the risks, opportunities and uncertainties associated with the clusters. 

Appendix A lays out the full characterisation of each issue, on which the clustering presented in 

Section  2  was  based.    Appendix  B  summarises  the  validation  review  feedback  from  the  EEA 

Scientific Committee as well as the SCHEER on each of the issues.  

11 EC, 2022, The EU Foresight System for the Environment, Synthesis Report, Delivering a zero 
pollution ambition by 2050 – inputs towards strategic foresight.  https://ec.europa.eu/environ-

ment/integration/research/forenv_en.htm 
12 Ibid.  

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Table 1: FORENV Process 2020-21 

Step 1: Information gathering  

More than 150 weak signals of change were identified from existing horizon scanning activities in the Joint 
Research Centre (JRC), DG Research and Innovation (RTD), European Environment Agency (EEA) and its 
network  of  Member  States,  and  the  Science  for  Environment  Policy  News  Alert  managed  by  DG 
Environment.  The weak signals were reviewed and collated to select approximately 110 items that were 
then discussed in Step 2.  

Picture 1 presents a screenshot from Pearltrees, an online software tool used to collate items found during 
Step 1, and cluster them using the STEEPL13 framework. 

Picture 1: Example screenshot from items collation using Pearltrees software 

Step 2: Sense-making and selection 

Four online sense-making workshops were convened, bringing together in total approximately 40 experts 
from the Commission and external organisations.  Through these workshops, experts analysed the selected 
weak-signals,  discussed  and  assessed  potential  emerging  issues.    Using  online  document  sharing  tools 
participating experts were able to support virtual clustering of potential issues and vote on them to support 
prioritisation.  Using the workshop outcomes 10 emerging issues were prioritised by the EKC. 

Picture 2 shows an example of the online workspace (Mural14) in use, illustrating the clustering and voting 
of potential issues.  

Picture 2: Screenshot of Mural worksheet during FORENV online workshop (12 April 2021) 

13 Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Legal 
14 https://www.mural.co/  

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Step 3: Characterisation 

Preparation of characterisations of each of the 10 priority issues to highlight related risks and opportunities 
for the achievement of the zero pollution ambition (see Appendix A).  The characterisation was based on 
a  desk-based  review  of  literature  (including  scientific  journals),  discussion  and  feedback  from  external 
experts and input from experts in a range of Commission DGs and the EEA. 

Step 4: Validation by a scientific committee 

The characterisation of the 10 issues was peer-reviewed in the third annual cycle by members of the EEA 
Scientific Committee and the Scientific Committee on Health, Environmental and Emerging Risks (SCHEER).  
The Scientific Committee review of each issue is presented in Appendix B. 

Step 5: Outputs and communication 

The  final findings  are communicated,  in  the  form of  this report,  to  citizens, stakeholders  and  EU  policy-
makers for discussion and follow-up action.  Reflecting the focus of this FORENV cycle on the zero pollution 
ambition the outputs have been modified to provide greater policy relevance and to support discussion on 
the zero pollution stakeholder platform.  An additional Synthesis Report has been prepared which includes 
some key questions for policy (see section 1.2.4).  The full and synthesis reports are accompanied by a 
video to communicate the outputs and questions for policy. 

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2 

SUMMARY OF THE TEN PRIORITY EMERGING ISSUES 

This section provides a short summary of the ten priority emerging issues identified and charac-
terised  by  FORENV  in  the  third  cycle.    The  full  characterisation  of  each  issue  can  be  found  in 
Appendix  A.    An  assessment  of  these  priority  issues,  their  implications  for  zero  pollution  and 
related key policy questions are presented in Sections 3 and 4. 

As part of the FORENV approach (see Section 1), each issue is reviewed and validated by mem-
bers  of  the  EEA  Scientific  Committee  and  the  SCHEER  (DG  Santé).    The  Scientific  Committee 
reviews are presented in Annex B. 

Urban settlement patterns and demographic change: im-
plications for pollution 

The  Covid-19  pandemic  has  influenced  the  way  people  live  and  behave  in  cities  and  towns.  
Changing working patterns and consumption habits may challenge long-term trends in urban 
settlement and demography with a range of environmental, social and economic implications. 

•  Changing  working  and  consumption  patterns  (e-commerce,  food  etc.  delivery)  driven  by 
changing preferences and digitalisation (link to Issue 10) may lead to shifting settlement 
patterns, with more people choosing to live in rural areas and urban peripheries as well as 
smaller towns (offering better quality of life). 

• 

• 

This shift in working patterns (more teleworking, flexible working) accelerated by the pan-
demic could drive a decline in some urban areas, perhaps particularly in larger cities, with 
economic stagnation (with implications for tax revenues in cities) and the need for repur-
posing or reconstruction of (e.g. office) buildings and other aspects of urban infrastructure. 
This may lead to European Cities changing their vision on urban function by reimagining 
their mobility and green space networks and existing housing stock. 

In the longer-term city centres may become more affordable and could lead to a renais-
sance as younger, less affluent people move back into cities.  This could widen demographic 
divides between urban and rural/sub-urban communities. 

Will regenerative buildings and living materials in Europe 
help deliver the zero pollution ambition? 

Scientific  and  technological  advances,  including  collaborative  research  across  disciplines,  are 
leading to advances in regenerative buildings and construction materials.  These materials in-
tend to limit or avoid environmental harm while enhancing social and environmental outcomes. 

•  Novel approaches which combine technologies such as nano-structures, composite ma-
terials, sensors and advanced manufacturing may be used to create biogenic, regener-
ative buildings.   

• 

Living Building Materials (LBMs) may become increasingly common, offering opportu-
nities such as self-repairing concrete, and in the longer term potentially the opportunity 
for buildings that can be grown rather than constructed. 

•  New  materials  within  buildings  and  infrastructure  could  also  help  mitigate  or  reduce 
pollution such as fungal mycelium composites that can also remove chemicals from the 
environment or panels incorporating algae that improve air quality while creating edible 
proteins. 

February 2022  18 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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FORENV 2020-21: EMERGING ISSUES IMPACTING THE DELIVERY OF A ZERO POLLUTION AMBITION BY 2050 

Purpose  driven  business:  will  the  emergence  of  initia-
tives such as certified 'B' corporations play a major role 
in realising zero pollution? 

Environmental,  societal  and  investor  pressures  are  leading  to  increased  interest  in  ‘purpose’ 
driven businesses.  Some consumers are increasingly demanding (and purchasing goods and 
services) that businesses reflect their values and demonstrate positive contributions to society 
and the environment. 

• 

• 

• 

Long-term  value  creation  and  stakeholder  capitalism  could  increasingly  become  main-
stream, with businesses which adopt such approaches expected to have a competitive ad-
vantage. 

Expectations and societal pressure for business accountability and transparency on envi-
ronmental and social impacts of their operations is also likely to increase (link to Issue 5 
on new forms of information provision). 

These changes may accelerate in the medium-term as younger generations become eco-
nomically more dominant: millennials and Gen-Z appear to have higher expectations that 
businesses will prioritise the environment and society. 

Will  regenerative  agriculture  emerge  as  a  key  trend  in 
Europe that helps deliver the zero-pollution agenda? 

Although not a new concept, recent years have seen increasing interest in Europe and globally 
in adopting regenerative agricultural approaches, with outlooks suggesting around 10% of ag-
ricultural land could be under regenerative management by 2030.   

•  Widespread adoption of regenerative approaches in EU agriculture could help reduce agri-
chemical  use  (pesticides,  fertilisers  etc.)  and  pollution  associated  with  intensive  farming 
practices (plastics, run-off etc.). 

• 

Impacts  on  yields  are  uncertain  (some  research  suggests  they  could  increase  for  some 
crops but fall for others, depending on context), but where they are reduced this could lead 
to increased land-use for agriculture (extensification), or greater reliance on imported food 
from third countries. 

•  Regenerative practices could emerge alongside other food system developments, such as 
cellular agriculture (Issue 6) and synthetic biology (Issue 8) with far-reaching implications 
for traditional agriculture in the EU. 

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Will  new  ways  of  pollution  information  provision  influ-
ence behaviours towards low pollution lifestyles that go 
beyond current trends to low/zero waste? 

New technologies and tools are creating or facilitating possibilities for environmental monitoring 
and analysis, and increasing interest in monitoring and data by and for individual citizens.  This 
could include personal pollution exposure monitoring, and access to a wider range of environ-
mental data through networks of micro-sensors and smart devices. 

•  Already quite established in air pollution, new types of sensors and digital information 
provision (especially through smartphone apps) may increasingly emerge for other pol-
lution types including noise, industrial, water, soil and chemicals. 

•  Better access to data about pollution, or the ability to monitor real-time personal pol-
lution exposure (e.g. air, chemicals) may lead to changes in behaviour and increased 
pressure on polluters (and authorities) to address pollution. 

• 

Personal tracking and monitoring technologies could also increasingly emerge that pro-
vide citizens with detailed information about the pollution (or other) impacts of their 
consumption choices (these already exist for carbon and plastics). 

Low pollution food:  will new, less  polluting, methods of 
producing  protein,  fats  and  tissues  emerge  to  replace 
traditional agriculture? 

Scientific advances are bringing cellular agriculture closer to commercial production: start-ups 
in the US, UK, Asia and also the EU are seeking to bring factory-grown meat, seafood, milk and 
other animal products such as leather to the market.  

•  Cellular agriculture could lead to a new agricultural revolution, moving the production of 

many products off the land itself. 

•  While cellular agriculture proponents predict that it will provide solutions to growing global 
food  demand,  agricultural  pollution  and  animal  welfare  concerns  (as  well  as  pandemics 
arising from close human/animal interactions), social acceptability of the products is un-
certain – though acceptability may vary across different types of products and in different 
regions of the world. 

• 

• 

The advanced technology approach of cellular agriculture may interact with trends for re-
generative agriculture (link to Issue 4): this could lead to political and policy clashes, and 
possibly  to  a  future  where  growing  food  production  comes  from  cellular  agriculture  and 
farming moves towards land stewardship.  

It is in the scaling up of cellular agricultural units that real risks may emerge – including 
pollution risks. 

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An accelerating race to space: what will be the direct and 
indirect pollution impacts? 

The space economy is expected to boom over the next decades with the increase of commercial 
launches  and  space  activities  including  satellite  constellations  for  communications  and  Earth 
observation, space tourism, near-zero gravity manufacturing and, in a longer term, deep space 
exploration,  extra-terrestrial  mining  and  potentially  huge  orbiting  solar  panels  for  terrestrial 
and space-based energy systems.  

•  Space launches are expected to increase rapidly around the world (though in the EU mainly 
in northern regions and in overseas territories), along with expanding terrestrial manufac-
turing for rockets and fuels as well as their payloads. 

• 

Earth observation will continue to advance, including for pollution monitoring. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased interest in 
resilience.  Will a resilient Europe also be a zero pollution 
one? 

There has been an increased focus on resilience in Europe in recent years, and this is likely to 
continue, with an EU strategic goal of increased resilience (reflected in the first EU Strategic 
Foresight Report) across four related dimensions: social and economic, green, digital and geo-
political. 

• 

If the EU is to achieve its resilience ambitions, environmental health will need to be pro-
tected and improved in the short and longer term given the critical role the natural envi-
ronment (including healthy ecosystems and biodiversity) plays in resilience to shocks and 
stresses. 

•  Although an initial focus on ‘building back better’ from the Covid-19 pandemic was seen 
throughout Europe, there remains a key risk that Europe’s short and longer-term response 
to the pandemic could lead to serious environmental harm (e.g. around waste production 
and management). 

•  Moving to greater digital resilience can bring environment and pollution risks, with urban 
mining and even new conventional mining potentially emerging in Europe as global com-
petition and demand for critical raw materials (needed in a range of digital technologies) 
increases. 

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Will new innovations in synthetic biology emerge that ac-
celerate pollution reduction and mitigation? 

Rapid advances in synthetic biology, supported by growing use of AI, could bring a range of 
new products and production methods in a broad range of sectors, from chemicals to construc-
tion to agriculture.  

• 

Possible  products  range  from  bio-based  fuels  and  chemical  feedstocks  to  more  resilient 
building products (e.g., self-healing concrete), new tools for remediating pollution and new 
methods for pollution detection and monitoring  

•  Social acceptability may vary across different types of products and production methods, 

and may also be different in different regions of the world  

•  Synthetic  biology-based  products  could  lead  to  severe  unintended  environmental  conse-
quences (such as invasive species or disruption of food webs) in case of accidental releases 
or inappropriate testing and risk assessments.  

•  Synthetic biology is closely linked to other issues explored in this cycle, including cellular 

agriculture (link to Issue 6) 

Our  growing  digital  consumption  could  challenge  the 
zero pollution ambition 

By 2025 and beyond, there could be more people working from home, more social interactions 
and  entertainment  occurring  on  virtual  platforms  as  the  role  of  digital  technologies  become 
more prominent in industries such as education, health, tourism and retail.  

•  Digital tools and services (e.g. augmented and virtual reality) could improve human inter-

actions and gradually replace the need for physical meetings, travel.  

• 

Future  pandemics  or  climate  disasters  could  speed  up  the  adoption  of  digital  tools  and 
services and trigger more permanent changes to our work and daily lives (link to Issue 1 
on urban settlement patterns); e.g. flexible work patterns and work places may become 
permanent, changing where people choose to live and community structures. 

•  A more permanent home-based work culture could increase the use of internet and inter-
net-based services, systems and networks, with significant changes in our individual (and 
collective) usage patterns and usage. 

•  Digital  tools  are  providing  greater  efficiencies  and  less  pollution  through  ‘virtual  lifestyle 
services’ in a number of sectors. Increasingly, consumers are looking to access more prod-
ucts and services via the internet, and companies are reinventing their business models by 
embracing digital technologies to meet this demand. 

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3 

CLUSTERS OF DISRUPTIVE CHANGES FROM THE PRIORITY 

EMERGING ISSUES 

As noted in Section 1, the FORENV scanning exercise identified more than 150 weak signals of 

change  relevant  to  the  topic  of  zero  pollution.    These  were  collated  and  discussed  in  four 

workshops  bringing  together  Commission  officials  and  external  experts  which  led  to  the 

identification of ten priority emerging issues, as summarised in Section 2.  These issues were then 

characterised  via  desk  research,  including  defining  their  key  drivers  and  expected  future 

development.  Drivers and future changes include those that are societal (such as demographic 

changes  and  lifestyles),  economic  and  technological  (such  as  cellular  agriculture),  and 

environmental.  The characterisations of these ten priority issues are included in Appendix A. 

The ten priority issues were reviewed and five clusters of potentially disruptive changes associated 

with the emerging issues were developed.  These clusters were then discussed by the Secretariat 

and DG Environment to identify potentially important implications for the zero pollution ambition 

and associated uncertainties.  Key policy questions were then defined (as presented in Section 

4), which are intended to inform ongoing discussion about potential threats and opportunities to 

Europe’s zero pollution ambitions.   

The  outputs  presented  in  this  report  and  the  separate  Synthesis  Report15  have  the  aim  of 
providing input to further policy discussions.  Furthermore, in the context of the proposed zero 

pollution monitoring and outlook framework, the results presented could provide a starting point 

in future for a wider strategic foresight exercise related to zero pollution. 

The clusters presented in this Section are: 

1.  Cluster 1: Pervasive digital tools and 

lifestyles 

2.  Cluster 2: Transformations in where and how 

we live and work 

3.  Cluster 3: New pollution monitoring and data 

methods 

4.  Cluster 4: Living buildings and new materials 

5.  Cluster 5: Multi-faceted food system 

revolutions 

Each 

icon  used 

in  the  cluster 

infographics 

corresponds  to  one  of  the  ten  priority  emerging 

issues,  as  presented  in  Section  2.    A  key  to  the 

icons used is also included in Appendix C. 

Emerging environmental issues 

This report presents emerging 
issues or changes to well-known 
issues in Europe’s environment. 
Emerging issues reflect observed 
changes or developments in the 
environment that occur as a result of 
new research or knowledge, a shift in 
geographical or temporal scales of 
impact, or due to heightened 
awareness or new response measures 
to issues. Emerging issues reflect 
current evidence of possible future 
change to the environment that is 
either positive or negative. These 
issues are assessed over 3 time 
horizons showing when an impact 
(either positive or negative) is likely 
to occur in Europe – short-term (1 - 5 
years), medium term (5 - 10 years) 
and long-term (10+ years). 

15 EC, 2022, The EU Foresight System for the Environment, Synthesis Report, Delivering a zero 
pollution ambition by 2050 – inputs towards strategic foresight.  https://ec.europa.eu/environ-
ment/integration/research/forenv_en.htm 

February 2022  23 

 
 
 
 
 
 
3.1 

Cluster 1: Pervasive digital tools and lifestyles 

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3.2 

Cluster 2: Transformations in where and how we live and work 

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3.3 

Cluster 3: New pollution monitoring and data methods 

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3.4 Cluster 4: Living buildings and new materials 

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3.5 

Cluster 5: Multi-faceted food system revolutions 

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4 

POLICY QUESTIONS AND CONCLUDING REFLECTIONS 

The five clusters of disruptive developments presented in Section 2 point to a range of potentially 

important changes that individually and collectively suggest the emergence of new drivers and 

sources of pollution alongside opportunities to reduce the pollution burden of some sectors.  By 

considering these changes a series of possible future (short, medium and longer term) implica-

tions for pollution are defined, and some key uncertainties.  These implications and uncertainties 

represent  areas  where  it may  be  important  to improve  understanding  and  consider how  policy 

could respond to mitigate possible risks and maximise opportunities. 

By  looking  across  these  implications  and  uncertainties,  themes  or  cross-cutting  topics  can  be 

observed.  For example, the role of new technologies and information in a number of areas have 

the  potential  to  reduce  pollution,  but  also  create  new  and  in  some  cases  uncertain  risks.    By 

considering such themes, some key questions for zero pollution policy are identified.  These are 

intended to help guide potential future policy discussions and identify opportunities but also where 

preventative action may be needed to manage future risks. 

4.1 

Pollution risks from territorial shifts  

Trends in urban settlement patterns (Cluster 2) and digitalisation (Cluster 1) suggest that pollu-

tion pressures in and around cities are likely to change.  Currently, key pollution sources outside 

urban areas are from industry, energy production, transport, farming and agriculture.  However, 

the nature of pollution drivers may change as more people move to live and work in rural areas 

and  urban  peripheries.    The  centres  of  cities  may  be  ‘hollowed  out’,  and  their  peripheries  and 

wider rural areas may emerge as the focus of economic activity, especially if digitalisation opens 

up opportunities for more dispersed working patterns and the replacement of physical with digital 

/ online services.  These settlement and demographic changes will lead to the more traffic and 

economic  activity,  but  infrastructure  (e.g.  mobility,  waste  management)  may  not  be  there  to 

support these changes, creating future pollution pressures. 

•  Will  ‘urbanised’  hubs  emerge  in  areas  outside  cities,  and  how  can  the  pollution  risks  from 
these be managed?  How can the EU support non-urban areas to become more resilient in 

the face of possible future demographic developments and pollution trends? 

4.2 

Data informs or misinforms citizen behaviour 

New technologies and tools are offering a range of new forms of monitoring (e.g. new types of 

sensor, personal pollution monitoring), and potentially a wealth of new pollution data that could 

be used by citizens, authorities and businesses (Cluster 3).  The development of tools for sharing 

information and collaborating online is creating greater public awareness of environmental and 

pollution issues, increasing involvement in environmental monitoring and action.  However, the 

Covid-19 pandemic combined with increasingly digital lives (Cluster 1), have illustrated the risks 

of misinformation and the power of internet-linked social movements to undermine the efficacy 

and  legitimacy  of  policy  interventions.    New  forms  of  environmental  pollution  monitoring  data, 

especially if personalised, could lead to a ‘cacophony’ of different narratives around pollution and 

risks to people.  This may undermine policy interventions or lead to a disproportionate focus on 

issues that in practice have relatively low health or environmental impacts.  On the other hand, 

access to more and new forms of data could be used by policy makers and authorities to ‘nudge’ 

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people  to  lower  pollution  lifestyles,  for  example  through  changes  in  consumption  and  mobility 

choices. 

•  How  can  policy  and  stakeholder  actions  promote  digital  developments  that  increase  public 
awareness of pollution, address the misrepresentation of information online (e.g. social me-

dia) and encourage people towards lower-pollution lifestyles? 

4.3 

Scaling up new technologies 

As advances in nanotechnology and synthetic biology continue to accelerate, they can bring new 

construction materials such as living building materials (Cluster 4) as well as cellular agriculture 

products (Cluster 5) that reduce many drivers of pollution (for example agri-chemicals and land-

use associated with traditional agriculture or the extraction and processing of traditional building 

materials).  However new materials and production methods can create new risks to health and 

the environment.  This is most evident when they are scaled up, for example large cellular agri-

culture production facilities could present a new source of chemical and other forms of pollution, 

and new building materials could lead to uncertain and unintended long-term pollution and human 

health risks. 

•  How can the EU stimulate innovation with new technologies while identifying and managing 

possible pollution risks as these are scaled up? 

4.4 

International cooperation for zero pollution 

The clusters are focused predominantly on possible emerging trends in the EU, but some clusters 

reflect trends that have international dimensions that will affect Europe.  For example, advances 

in synthetic biology and cellular agriculture (Cluster 5) in other parts of the world are likely to 

influence food production and consumption in Europe.  Similarly, digital tools and lifestyles (Clus-

ter  1)  in  the  EU  will  be  influenced  by  digital  products  developed  elsewhere.    For  an  issue  not 

included in the clusters, the Race to Space (see Annex 1), private and public investment in the 

development of space technology and launches outside the EU are crucial drivers. 

•  How can the EU, including public bodies and stakeholders, strengthen interregional and inter-
national cooperation on emerging risks (e.g. pollution from increased launches, new forms of 

pollution in space) and opportunities (e.g. from experiments in space, improved earth obser-

vation) that will affect the achievement of our zero pollution ambition? 

4.5 

Concluding reflections: towards strategic foresight for zero pollution 

In September 2020 the Commission published the first Strategic Foresight Report – Charting the 
course towards a more resilient Europe16.  This was followed in September 2021 by the second 
of these annual reports which explored a range of global trends affecting the EU’s capacity and 
freedom  to  act17.    The  2021  report  identified  10  strategic  areas  where  the  EU  may  need  to 

strengthen its strategic autonomy.  The Commission’s focus on strategic foresight recognises that 

the nature and pace of change in areas such as climate, digital technologies and geopolitics means 

16 https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/strategic-planning/strategic-foresight/2020-strategic-foresight-report_en 
17 https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/strategic-planning/strategic-foresight/2021-strategic-foresight-report_en 

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a stronger culture of preparedness and anticipatory policy making is needed.  This is especially 

true in the context of the EU’s ambitions to transition to a green, digital and fair Europe.  

Themes relevant to a green, digital and fair Europe emerge through this FORENV cycle, and real-

ising the zero pollution ambition is an important aspect of Europe’s wider environmental and social 

ambitions,  including  for  a  more  resilient  future.    While  the  FORENV  outputs  presented  in  the 

synthesis assessment are inevitably selective, the clusters, implications and policy questions iden-

tified should inform ongoing reflection.  Initially this includes in the first half of 2022 through the 

zero pollution stakeholder platform, and as input to the forthcoming zero pollution monitoring and 

outlook  framework  (foreseen  second  half  of  2022).    These  discussions  can  also  reflect  on  the 

wider issues and challenges presented in the EU’s strategic foresight reports, linking these with 

the  focussed  foresight  activity  in  FORENV.    As  part  of  these  reflections,  the  need  for  a  more 

comprehensive strategic foresight for zero pollution could be considered, to build on the work of 

FORENV and connect more concretely to future policy development. 

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APPENDIX A  FULL CHARACTERISATION OF EMERGING ISSUES 

Issue 1: Urban settlement patterns and demographic change: implications for pollution 

is-
Emerging 
sue  descrip-
tion 

Europe is a highly urbanised continent – it is estimated that the share of the EU popula-
tion living in urban areas is currently 74% (EEA, 2019).   A  wide range of  factors have 
influenced the settlement patterns in European cities in the last century, including the 
location of employment opportunities, the rise of private vehicles (especially car owner-
ship), rural depopulation, major road-building programmes, changing consumer prefer-
ences, and fluctuations in land and property markets (RTPI, 2018). The existing trends 
indicate that Europeans are moving out of the core cities into wider suburbs and from 
rural areas into towns. This is accompanied by more recent trends of re-urbanisation 
(i.e. revitalisation of urban cores), and metropolitanisation (i.e. formal/informal consol-
idation  of  neighbouring  cities,  suburbs,  and  towns  into  combined  settlements  with 
shared systems and services) (European Investment Bank, 2018). 

Most recently, the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has (at least in the short-term) 
influenced people’s perception of living in large cities and urban centres and may divert 
the existing urban trends.  The improved environmental quality, reduced noise pollution, 
less crowded places and the realisation of the importance of having access to green ar-
eas during city lockdowns highlighted the benefits of living outside urban centres (EEA, 
2020; Sharifi and Khavarian-Garmsir, 2020).  For those able to work from home some or 
all of the time the lockdowns also reduced some of the associated negatives of living in 
suburban and rural areas (e.g. daily commute to work) which may affect people’s choice 
for residence and further impact settlement patterns.  

The full and long-term impact of COVID-19 in cities is still uncertain, however it has al-
ready led to some reorganising of how people live and behave in an urban environment.  
Urban mobility, working and consumption patterns are a few of the aspects of urban life 
that have been affected by the pandemic and could change future settlement trends.  
As a result, cities across Europe have started to change their vision on urban functions 
by looking to reshape their mobility (e.g. towards more active travel like walking and 
cycling) and green space networks, housing stock and high streets (Ricco, 2020, Euro-
pean Commission, 2020a).  

European cities are also seeing ongoing demographic change with a decreasing working 
age population and a more educated workforce.  Studies show that families with chil-
dren in the EU generally prefer living in the peripheries of cities, whereas young people 
tend to congregate more in densely populated urban areas.  Older people also often live 
further away from urban centres (European Commission. Joint Research Centre et al., 
2019; Goujon et al., 2021).  However a counter trend may be emerging, as some younger 
people are increasingly leaving big cities due to the negative experiences from the pan-
demic and the realisation of the daily exposure to pollution (Bhayat et al., 2021; Hill, 
2021; Kington, 2021); this might have a profound impact on future settlement trends 
and  urban  demographics  in  Europe  with  consequences  to  pollution  distribution  pat-
terns. 

The shift in working patterns towards teleworking triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic 
can reasonably be expected to continue in long-term.  This may lead to a decline in the 
use of some urban spaces currently occupied by offices and business, leading to the need 
for reconstruction and repurposing of these areas and buildings.  

Drivers arising from or accelerated by Covid-19   
Covid-19 associated lockdowns 

Key  drivers: 
what  is  driv-
ing  the  emer-
gence  of  this 
issue? 

The experience of the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns has led to many people re-evalu-
ating the benefits of urban life.  Many residents of big cities were trapped in properties 
that are, on average, smaller than in smaller towns or rural areas.  They also had less 
access to gardens and/or green areas than their small city or rural area counterparts 
while having to deal with inflated rental prices and the density of people which made 
social distancing harder (Gallagher, 2020).  
Personal behaviour changes  

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In the short-term the reduced frequency of physical social engagement has resulted in 
notable changes in the way people commute, how they work and use the services avail-
able to them (e.g. e-shops, e-doctor, e-pharmacy) reducing the advantages of living in 
urban centres.  Since the start of the pandemic there has been a rapid shift to working 
from home (European Commission, 2020a).  The rise in homeworking, travel restrictions 
and avoidance of socialising has resulted in decreases in the use of public transport while 
active transport modes have surged (Lozzi et al., 2020).  Buying habits have also changed 
(European  Supermarket  Magazine,  2020;  Grant,  2021;  Kohli  et  al.,  2020)  including:  a 
surge  in  e-commerce  as  people  travel  less  for  shopping  and  recreation  in  urban  cen-
tres/high-streets; reduced shopping frequency; and, a shift to stores closer to home. 
Access to green space and good air quality 

A survey of residents (n=5,000) from  five large European cities (London, Paris, Milan, 
Madrid  and  Berlin)  showed  that  for  85%  of  the  respondents  the  pandemic  has  high-
lighted the importance of living within walking or cycling distance of a green area and 
for half of the respondents it has made them more concerned about air pollution.  Ac-
cess to green areas and improved air quality have emerged as important factors in peo-
ple’s decisions to leave large cities (Bacchi, 2020). Urban greening actions (promoting 
depolluted and re-naturalised sites as potential public green areas) are also part of the 
Zero Pollution Action Plan (European Commission, 2021a) 
The acceleration of web-based services and working 

The  Covid-19  lockdowns  accelerated  the  adoption  of  digital  solutions  at  an  unprece-
dented pace, for work, (shared) mobility options, socialising and consumption (e.g. food 
delivery  etc.).    This  created  unforeseen  opportunities  for  scaling  up  alternative  ap-
proaches to social and economic life (e.g. e-health online appointments and therapies, 
online working, learning etc.) that could be contributing to changes in urban settlement 
patterns (e.g. developments in rural areas and smaller settlements, urban extensions, 
edge and out-of-town developments) as people do not necessarily need to actively ac-
cess urban centres anymore to meet their needs (Hantrais et al., 2020).  

Existing and contextual drivers 
Digitalisation, including IoT and use of apps 

Digital solutions are becoming increasingly powerful in real-time environmental pollu-
tion data transmission and management (European Commission, 2021b). Young people 
in particular are using new technologies to keep themselves informed on the environ-
mental risks and exposure to pollution in cities (see also Issue 5: Will new ways of pollu-
tion information provision influence behaviours towards low pollution lifestyles that go 
beyond current trends to low/zero waste?).  Studies suggest  growth in the air quality 
monitoring software market  (globally approx. 5% annual growth) partly due to emer-
gence of new tech start-ups using Smart Air Quality Meters and use of smartphone apps 
to self-monitor exposure to air pollution in cities (Bateman, 2020; Research and Markets, 
2021;  Tracxn,  2021).    From  the  evidence  reviewed  specific  data  or  outlooks  on  the 
growth of air quality (or other pollution) monitoring app users are not available.  How-
ever, as discussed in Issue 5 growth in their use is anticipated which may influence be-
haviour change and where they are able lead to be people relocating to less polluted 
neighbourhoods or leave the worst polluted cities for good (although this in itself may 
expose or cause inequalities) (Bateman, 2020). As part of the Zero Pollution Action plan 
the Commission is also set to offer people new possibilities to learn about pollution by 
developing dedicated information material and apps (e.g. Air Quality Index App) (Euro-
pean Commission, 2021a) 
EU rural development policies 

In general rural areas are among the least prosperous regions in the EU and face a unique 
set challenges, including demographic changes, high risk of poverty, risk of social exclu-
sion and a lack of access to basic facilities (European Commission, n.d.).  The pandemic 
added to the urgency for rural revival.  The European Commission has developed a new 
long-term vision for rural areas that should be translated into a concrete policy frame-
work – the European rural agenda (European Commission, 2021c, 2020b). This vision 
proposes a Rural Action Plan articulated around flagship initiatives that bring together 

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different EU policy areas. A Rural Pact will also be developed providing a common frame-
work for the engagement and cooperation of all levels of governance and stakeholders 
at the EU, national, regional and local level (European Commission, 2021d). There have 
also been calls from EU policy makers for rural area development to use EU funding for 
key investments such as building transport and digital infrastructure (Hernandez-Mo-
rales et al., 2020). The absence of key infrastructure, including digital (e.g. fast internet 
connections) may be a barrier for people to relocate from urban areas. 
Climate change and new displacements  

Extreme weather events such as flash floods, mudslides, heatwaves caused by climate 
change are becoming increasingly common across Europe (European Academies Science 
and Advisory Council, 2018). The resulting displacement of people in Europe is also on 
the rise as more than 200,000 new displacements in 2020 were registered in Europe and 
Central Asia - the highest figure on record for the region (iDMC, 2021). A common mis-
conception is that disaster displacement is short-term and that people usually return 
quickly to rebuild their homes and livelihoods. However, there is limited data on if and 
when the evacuees are able to return. Disaster displacement can become prolonged, 
and people may settle elsewhere (e.g. in location to where they were evacuated in the 
first place) which might impact future settlement patterns (iDMC, 2021).  
Social inequality / affordability 

Social inequalities continue to be an important issue for Europe both within cities and 
between urban residents and their rural counterparts. Rural areas are commonly disad-
vantaged due to limited access to key services and infrastructure. There is also growth 
in regional disparities among rural regions (Camarero and Oliva, 2019). The growing ur-
ban segregation in European cities due to widening gap between rich and poor residents 
is resulting in stigmatisation of certain neighbourhoods leading to even greater segrega-
tion and social exclusion. Affordability is also a key issue as housing prices in European 
cities are growing faster than people’s income. EU’s average overburden rate (i.e. house-
holds  where  total  housing  costs  exceed  40%  of  disposable  income)  has  been  rising 
among people at risk of poverty (35% in 2005 to 39.3% in 2015) (JRC, n.d.).  
The future development of this issue focusses in particular on the way in which the driv-
ers  associated  with  European  authorities  and  citizens  response  to  the  Covid-19  pan-
demic may influence urban settlement projections.  As the longer-term response to and 
influence of the Covid-19 pandemic in Europe is still developing, the future of settlement 
patterns in and around Europe’s urban areas is unclear.  However, some plausible de-
velopment trends for urban settlement patterns and demographics are explored here 
based on current evidence. 

Changing urban settlement patterns 
The future patterns of living in cities might change as time elapses after the pandemic.  
In the short to medium term cities could be turning into ‘doughnuts’ with empty centres 
but vibrant suburbs (Maginn, 2020), followed perhaps by a renaissance of urban centres 
in  the  long  term  with  a  different  demographic  than  seen today.   Urban  regeneration 
could with the right policy support become a catalyst for more inclusive and sustainable 
cities in future. 
Short to medium term developments 

If there is a trend to people increasingly relocating from large cities to provincial towns 
and rural areas seeking to live in greener, less polluted and less crowded places, this 
redistribution  of  Europe’s  population  could  lead  to  a  transformation  of  many  less 
wealthy and remote regions as rural development becomes a priority (Hernandez-Mo-
rales et al., 2020).  This could result in large cities and urban centres no longer having a 
monopoly on the social and economic progress that drive change in societies (Hernan-
dez-Morales et al., 2020).  The could in turn see a shift in the location of better quality 
jobs from urban centres to urban hinterlands and rural areas and may also help ease to 
some extent the current political and economic urban-rural divide seen in many Euro-
pean countries (Kuper, 2021; Nagalingam, n.d.). The relocation from urban centres and 
the doughnut effect could also be accelerated if recent rises in housing and rental prices 
in some European cities continues (Deloitte, 2021). In addition various European cities 

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(e.g.  Berlin,  Stockholm)  have  major  development  plans  in  their  outskirts  to  address 
growing housing demand (Nienaber and Johnson, 2021).  
In  the  short  to  medium  term,  teleworking  and  the  continued  growth  of  e-commerce 
(driven by the digital revolution and personal behaviour change) could be major factors 
for the decline in social and economic activity in urban centres.  While it would be unre-
alistic to expect everyone to work from home indefinitely, it has been estimated that 
between 20-60% of the workforce that are able or are already working from home (ap-
prox. 40% of all EU workforce) could continue to do so between three and five days a 
week (Hernandez-Morales et al., 2020; Lund et al., 2021). There are factors that could 
dampen the enthusiasm of teleworking, for example, the growing scrutiny and surveil-
lance of remote workers by their employees (Christian, 2020) could encourage their re-
turn to offices.  A recent survey conducted by Germany’s Ifo Institute highlights that 54% 
of businesses that have enabled teleworking want to make greater use of home offices 
following the pandemic (Hernandez-Morales et al., 2020).  Large companies, in particu-
lar, are expressing willingness to continue to rely on teleworking (Kohlmann, 2021).   

Offices in urban centres seem likely to shrink, but probably not disappear.  Central busi-
ness districts may remain dedicated to offices but some experts believe they will evolve 
into a hub - in a system of more decentralised Neighbourhood Business Districts that 
span from the city centre out to the suburbs and rural areas tied together with technol-
ogy (Florida, 2021). The EU tourism industry has also been greatly affected by the pan-
demic with many hotels and short-term rental properties being empty due to travel re-
strictions (Deloitte, 2021; Niestadt, 2020). Traditional beach holidays in southern Europe 
are expected to decline and could be replaced by more experiential holidays every two 
or three years which will further impact the hotel sector (Dombey and Hancock, 2021). 
Those office buildings and hotels left empty in urban centres and less desirable locations 
may be converted (at least partially) into homes (Kuper, 2021).  Many cities such as Lon-
don, Paris and Stockholm are viewing this as an opportunity to help ease current housing 
shortages (C40 Cities, 2021; Johnson, 2020; Partridge, 2021).  The emergence of vacant 
buildings in urban centres could also be driven by the disappearance of high street retail 
(a trend already seen pre-pandemic) as large shopping malls in urban peripheries and 
online shopping become dominant (Maginn, 2020). 

The shift towards decentralised office structures and increased homeworking may result 
in a substantial relocation of businesses servicing offices and office-workers (e.g. coffee/ 
sandwich sellers, cleaners, fitness studios) to suburbs where former commuters live - 
creating mixed used neighbourhoods (De Fraja et al., 2021).  In a utopian vision of this 
more dispersed living pattern, as suburbs change people can meet all their needs (e.g. 
childcare, shops, work) within their communities (potentially defined by the concept of 
the ‘15-minute city’, which emerged in and is also relevant to urban centres) and are 
able to traverse their neighbourhood by foot or bike, replacing the pollution with exer-
cise (Kuper, 2021).  The opposite is also of course possible: that people continue to ac-
cess many of the services they used to, but now live further away and thus travel more, 
predominantly by private car with associated environmental and pollution implications.  
In any case, people who are unable to work from home on a part-time/full-time basis 
could  increasingly  use  their  private  car  to  avoid  crowded  places  due  health  concerns 
(Armitt et al., 2021; Crow and Millot, 2020). 
Longer term developments 

Following the initial wave of relocation to smaller cities, towns and rural areas, the avail-
ability of homes will limit the number of households that can move (Armitt et al., 2021).  
In the long-term, policy change may reduce this if more housebuilding is allowed in rural 
areas to meet the permanently higher demand.  

If large number of people move to living in suburbs or rural areas, housing in urban cen-
tres would in principle become more available.  This assumes that people would seek to 
move on a permanent basis (rather than for those who can afford it simply by second 
homes), and that in turn the potential decline in urban centre populations reduces pres-

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sure on land and property prices and rents, meaning previously unaffordable areas be-
come more accessible to younger, less affluent people (Armitt et al., 2021; Hernandez-
Morales et al., 2020). 

Changing urban demographics 

Short term changes 

The urban demographic landscape could change in the short term as young people and 
skilled workers move away from urban centres as non-employment considerations (e.g. 
escape the crowded and polluted cities) play a larger role in people’s choice of residen-
tial location.  The reduced demand for living in big cities and urban centres could lead to 
higher house prices in more desirable non-urban locations.  This in turn could lead to 
wealthier households relocating to the more desirable suburbs (Overman and Nathan, 
2020).  Those who remain in cities could therefore include blue collar workers and their 
families that are not able to afford to leave without the risk of unemployment and eco-
nomic hardship (Bateman, 2020).  
The digital revolution enabling people to learn as long as they have access to electronic 
devices  and  internet  may have  an  influence  on  the demographics  of  cities  with  large 
universities.  As the approach to learning changes some universities may see the number 
of students on campuses drop, particularly due to lack of foreign students, and if there 
is a widespread adoption of online learning ensues (The Economist, n.d.), although these 
will not deliver the full university ‘experience’, so may not be something all students are 
seeking. 
Longer-term changes 

In the long term, if housing in large cities and urban centres becomes more affordable, 
younger people may become more able to move into these spaces.  However, the re-
naissance of the urban centres could be short lived with current demographic projec-
tions for a continued decline in the working-age population across European countries 
(European Commission. Joint Research Centre et al., 2019).  As elderly people in general 
prefer less densely populated areas this could mean that many future retirees (the cur-
rent  Generation  X  and  Millennials)  could be  leaving  larger  cities  for  smaller  towns  or 
rural areas, while younger generations (Generation Z and Generation Alpha) may not be 
able to replace them in numbers (due to continuously declining fertility rates) if not for 
migrants  from  outside  of  EU.    There  could  also  be  differences  in  urban  demographic 
changes dependent on the geographical location.   

Intra-EU mobility is expected to drive more rapid decline in workforce and populations 
in Eastern and Southern European cities, consisting predominantly of young people, as 
they continue to migrate to Western European countries (European Commission. Joint 
Research  Centre  et  al.,  2019).  However,  teleworking  could  limit  this  trend  as  skilled 
workforce  from  these  regions  may  increasingly  choose  to  stay  in  their  home  country 
while working for EU-based companies abroad (or even non-EU companies).  Remote 
working could also lead to workers (especially younger workforce) relocating to South-
ern Europe during the winter months.  

implications 
Potential 
for the EU’s ability to deliver a 
zero-pollution ambition 

Opportunities 
(for our ability to deliver a zero-
pollution ambition) 

Risks 
(to our ability to deliver a zero-pollu-
tion ambition) 

Short/medium-term  decline 
in social and economic activ-
ity in urban centres 

Cities could meet the binding EU 
nature  restoration  targets  and 
take actions outlined in Zero Pol-
lution  Action  Plan  (European 
Commission,  2021a)  by  empha-
sising  urban  greening  to  “refur-
bish”  urban  centres  that  would 
improve  the  air  quality  in  areas 
previously  dominated  by  traffic 
infrastructure  and 
and  grey 

Rapid decrease in social activity (e.g. 
social isolation, lack of personal con-
tacts)  can  have  significant  conse-
quences  on  mental  health  (espe-
cially among young people and ado-
lescents) leading to anxiety, frustra-
tion,  and  decreased  focus  on  sus-
tainable living at the individual level. 

Increase in use of shopping centres 
located in peri-urban areas generally 
accessed by private car leading to an 

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would  encourage  people  to  re-
main or return to cities. 

increase in associated pollution, es-
pecially air and noise pollution. 

Vacant  buildings 
centres 

in  urban 

Stagnating  economic  growth 
with  fewer  commercial  tax-
payers, and a greater propor-
tion  of  poorer,  possibly  un-
employed  residents  leading 
to  reduced  tax  revenue  for 
city councils (Hernandez-Mo-
rales et al., 2020; UN, 2020) 

Settlement patterns may lead 
to  a  decline  in  central  urban 
population and an expansion 
of suburban and rural popula-
tions,  and  of  smaller  towns 
(Tonar and Talton, 2020)  

Retrofitting  the  urban  building 
stock  to  reduce  building  energy 
use  (and  pollution  from  energy 
production) (Wang Esram, 2021) 
and meet the zero pollution am-
bition  set  by  the  Commission  to 
reduce  air  pollution  from  build-
(European  Commission, 
ings 
2021a) 

Cities could use public incentives 
and  programs  to  give  away  the 
vacant space to affordable hous-
ing, local communities (e.g. vege-
table  gardens;  micro-parks)  and 
nature, which could in turn have 
pollution  benefits,  for  example 
improved air quality and reduced 
water run-off. 

Enhancing the role of green and 
blue  infrastructure  and  nature-
(EEA,  2021), 
based  solutions 
providing  opportunities  for  im-
proved  urban  pollution  mitiga-
tion  (e.g.  through  sustainable 
drainage, reduced run-off etc.).  

Opportunities  to  rethink  urban 
mobility  and  land  use,  with  po-
tential environmental and pollu-
tion benefits (especially a shift to 
active travel) (EEA, 2021).  

Limitations  and  high  cost  of  funda-
mentally  changing  the  inherited  in-
creating 
(e.g. 
frastructure 
green/blue infrastructure) in historic 
urban  centres  that  is  often  unsus-
tainable.  

by 

Increase  in  construction  waste  and 
risk  of  water  pollution  from  pollu-
tants from refurbishment / retrofit-
ting. 

Lack  of  financial  resources  (due  to 
declining  tax  revenues  from  peo-
ple/businesses 
leaving)  to  main-
tain/improve existing (vacant) build-
ing  stock  could  result  in  derelict 
buildings  that  present  environmen-
tal hazard risks.  

Vacant  and  derelict  buildings  may 
become hotspots for anti-social be-
haviour (resulting in damaged prop-
erties  and  build-up  of  waste  –  e.g. 
broken glass etc.) and fly-tipping and 
may  encourage  infestations  of  ver-
min(European Commission Scientific 
Committee, 2021) 

Could lead to cuts in public services 
that  could  negatively  affect  their 
quality  (e.g.  poor  waste  manage-
ment,  wastewater  management) 
and increase the risk of pollution. It 
could  also  undermine  broader  sus-
tainable urban development efforts 
(e.g.  green 
infrastructure,  nature 
based solutions) (UN, 2020).  

Increasing car traffic and pollution in 
towns  and  suburbs  (Armitt  et  al., 
2021) 

As above, such changes could reduce 
revenue  for  municipalities,  which 
could  reduce  the  funding  available 
for changes in urban form and infra-
structure  that  would  be  needed  to 
realise  these  potential  opportuni-
ties. 

Increasing  volume  of  construction 
waste because of increasing demand 
for  housing  and  infrastructure  in 
suburban/rural areas as people relo-
cate  from  urban  centres  (European 
Commission  Scientific  Committee, 
2021). 

Changes  in  urban  structure 
from  growing  demand  for 
services and infrastructure in 

Reconsider  the  concept  of  city 
with associated improvements to 

Neglect  and  degradation  of  urban 
centres as wealthier households re-

February 2022  37 

 
 
 
 
 
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suburbs as homeworking and 
decentralised  office  spaces 
becomes a norm (De Fraja et 
al., 2021). 

infrastructure 
Developed 
(e.g.  roads,  digital  infrastruc-
ture etc.) and new housing in 
rural areas (Nagalingam, n.d.) 

Land-use  changes  and  biodi-
versity  loss  associated  with 
this  infrastructure  and  con-
struction 

The  existing 
infrastructure 
(e.g.  wastewater  treatment 
plants)  and  services  (waste 
management)  of  smaller  cit-
ies  and  towns  may  be  over-
whelmed  by  the  growing 
number  of  people  moving 
from large cities.  

Reduced  pollution  in  Eastern 
/ Southern European cities as 
economic  activity  declines 
intra-EU  migration 
due  to 
while  cities  in  Western  Eu-
rope  are  facing  the  opposite 
trends. 

Cities  dominated  by  its  uni-
versity  population  could  see 
pollution  decline  due 
to 
smaller  student  population 
and  resulting  economic  de-
cline (shops closing, less traf-
fic etc.) 

pollution– e.g. widespread adop-
tion of the “15-minute city” con-
cept,  development  of  large  traf-
fic-free  areas  and  promotion  of 
mixed-use developments in sub-
urbs  and  small  cities/towns  to 
ensure  all  residents  have  access 
to  essential  services  within  a 
walking  distance  thus  requiring 
less travel and further leading to 
reduced  air  pollution 
(EEA, 
2021). 

investment 

Infrastructure 
to 
align  with climate, environmen-
tal  and  social  equity  agendas  in 
cities (EEA, 2021). This could also 
involve  blue  and  green  infra-
structure  (including  land  for  ur-
ban food production). 

Governments  could  support  the 
development  of  novel/sustaina-
ble  industries  and  their  infra-
structure in rural areas (e.g. clean 
technology)  as  more  workforces 
become  available 
(i.e.  more 
young  people  decide  to  stay  in 
their smaller towns/villages).  

This also provides an opportunity 
to shorten the supply chains and 
reduce  the  pollution  associated 
with global supply chains (Nagal-
ingam, n.d.). 

Local  authorities  could  turn  this 
into an opportunity to build back 
better  while  using  circular  con-
struction methods to ensure bet-
ter  quality  services  and  reduce 
the risk of pollution.  

Cities  could  invest  in  smart  sys-
tems (e.g. transport energy), dig-
ital  infrastructure  and  nature-
based solutions that encourages 
physical  activity,  reduces  pollu-
tion,  and  facilitates  social  inclu-
sion. 

repurpose 
could 
Universities 
their  campuses  and  create  sus-
tainable  multipurpose  facilities 
and community spaces (e.g. com-
munity  garden)  that  work  for 
both education providers and the 
local community and function as 
a catalyst for change towards ur-
ban  sustainability  (Solomonova, 

locating  to  the  more  desirable  sub-
urbs or rural areas. 

The adoption of “15-minute city” will 
require  substantial  interventions  at 
the  level  of  urban  planning,  road 
network,  public  transport  system 
that may disrupt existing socio-eco-
nomic processes and could be costly 
to  achieve  (European  Commission 
Scientific Committee, 2021). 

Increased  economic  activity  and 
more (motorised) traffic, with asso-
ciated  pollution  implications  (e.g. 
noise, air, water).  

Soil  and  water  contamination  and 
loss of natural habitats in construc-
tion sites 

Maintenance problems in waste and 
wastewater systems due to  overca-
pacity leading to environmental pol-
lution  (e.g.  untreated  discharge  to 
waterways)  

like 
Large-scale  online  activities 
online university courses have impli-
cations in terms of high levels of en-
ergy  consumption.  If  powered  by 
fossil  fuels  would  lead  to  environ-
mental pollution.  

February 2022  38 

 
 
 
 
 
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Timeframe  of 
emergence  

Uncertainties  

Additional re-
search  or  evi-
that 
dence 
may 
be 
needed 

2021). 

This issue is already emerging, it will further emerge in the short-term but continue to 
evolve in the medium- and long-term. 

The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated changes in urban settlement patterns and de-
mographics in the short term with people migrating away from cities and urban centres.  
As  the  impact  of  Covid-19  in  cities  is  still  unravelling,  their  long-term  future  and  de-
mographics have become uncertain.  However, historically cities have proved to be re-
silient and in the long-term emerged stronger, showing they can build back better and 
attract investment, people and services (Joshi-Ghani, 2020). 
The future of the Covid-19 pandemic and its long-term impact on cities and the behav-
iour of its inhabitants is still uncertain.  Depending on the length of the pandemic, how 
much and when social mixing resumes, and what kind of prevention is done will largely 
determine people’s decisions on where to live - that may further trigger changes in set-
tlement trends and associated pressure on / drivers of pollution. 

The pandemic has also brought uncertainty on the outlooks of urban population.  The 
pre-pandemic projections indicated a continued rise in urban populations across Euro-
pean cities (JRC, n.d.).  However, since the start of the pandemic skilled workers (e.g. in 
tech sector) have been increasingly  moving away due to the coronavirus pandemic and 
concerns over air pollution (Partington, 2021).  One researcher found that more than 
40% of people in large European cities have considered moving away from cities (Bacchi, 
2020).  However, ‘considering’ something is not the same as acting, and it is unclear how 
many could actually move given the natural inertia in decision making, and the lack of 
housing stock in rural areas. Also, the rise in vaccines and removal of restrictions could 
encourage the return of people to cities as already observed in some places (Hartmans, 
2021).  It is yet to be determined which of these opposing trends will play out in the 
short to medium term.   

It is also unclear what would be the implications (e.g. quality of services, infrastructure) 
for smaller cities, towns, and rural areas if significant proportion of young people and 
families move there from large metropolitan areas (e.g. Paris, Madrid).  It is unknown 
what impact such shifts in peri-urban and rural demographics would have on existing 
communities and whether it would cause a conflict or tension between the newcomers 
and local people who have lived in these communities for a long time.  
There is also uncertainty over the future of the vacant office buildings in cities and urban 
centres that could emerge as businesses enable homeworking on a part-time or full-time 
basis.  These vacant buildings, if not managed, could create urban decay and pollute the 
environment (ASK-EHS, 2019).  There will be opportunities for local authorities to take 
advantage of this and help address current housing shortages in many urban areas, but 
if this takes a long time it could be the artistic community that use these spaces instead 
(Hernandez-Morales et al., 2020). 

Growth in housing market prices is clouded by uncertainty following the COVID-19 pan-
demic. Introduction of policies to limit the economic impact of the pandemic have indi-
rectly  supported  the  current  demand  for  housing  and  the  existing  price  trajectories. 
However, the policy normalisation after the pandemic alongside new working models 
and housing preferences (in peri-urban and rural areas) may have impact on long term 
price developments (Martins et al., 2021). 

Considering the many unknowns surrounding the pandemic and its long-term impacts, 
it  is  difficult  to  tell  yet  if  the  short-term  disruptions/changes  will  become  then  new 
norms and whether big cities are universally seen as riskier places (Overman and Nathan, 
2020).  

The national Recovery and Resilience Plans, prepared by Member States to access the 
available funds of the Recovery and Resilience Facility will have an important role in fu-
ture development of this issue as the success or failures of these plans could determine 
whether cities continue to be the most desirable places for people to live and work. This 
Facility was established by the Commission to help address the immediate economic and 

February 2022  39 

 
 
 
 
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social issues caused by the pandemic and ensure sustainable and inclusive recovery (Eu-
ropean Commission, 2021e). It is important that the use of these plans and the achieve-
ment of their objectives are monitored. 

Developing an approach and metrics to monitor the evolution of European cities is im-
portant and could help finding answers to these questions to help determine the long-
term changes in urban settlement patterns and demographics. 

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-  Key  Market  Trends  and  Drivers 

Research and Markets, 2021. Global Air Quality Monitoring Software Industry (2020 to 
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Quality-Monitoring-Software-Industry-2020-to-2027---Key-Market-Trends-
and-Drivers---ResearchAndMarkets.com (accessed 7.27.21). 

Ricco, B., 2020. How the Covid-19 pandemic is changing urban mobility [WWW Docu-
ment]. URL https://cordis.europa.eu/article/id/422228-how-the-covid-19-pan-
demic-is-changing-urban-mobility (accessed 6.21.21). 
RTPI, 2018. Settlement Patterns, Urban Form & Sustainability. 
Sharifi, A., Khavarian-Garmsir, A.R., 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic: Impacts on cities and 
major lessons for urban planning, design, and management. Sci. Total Environ. 
749, 142391. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142391 

The Economist, n.d. Lockdown lessons—how will the pandemic change higher educa-

tion? 

Metros 

Tonar,  R.,  Talton,  E.,  2020.  People  Fleeing  Big  Cities  May  Spur  Economic  Growth  In 
URL 

Smaller 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellistalton/2020/09/03/people-fleeing-big-cit-
ies-may-spur-economic-growth-in-smaller-metros/ (accessed 6.11.21). 
Tracxn,  2021.  Top  Smart  Air  Quality  Meters  Startups  [WWW  Document].  URL 
https://tracxn.com/d/trending-themes/Startups-in-Smart-Air-Quality-Meters/ 
(accessed 7.29.21). 

Document]. 

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[WWW 

UN, 2020. Policy Brief: COVID-19 in an Urban World. United Nations. 
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https://www.aceee.org/blog-

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buildings (accessed 6.24.21). 

Document]. 

[WWW 

URL 

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Issue 2: Will regenerative buildings and living materials in Europe help deliver the zero pollu-
tion ambition? 

Emerging 
is-
sue  descrip-
tion 

Construction often causes significant harm to the environment. The industry is one of the 
most resource-intensive and is responsible for approximately 2.3 billion tonnes of waste 
generated per year in EU27, 36% of total waste generated (Apró et al., 2020; Eurostat, 
2018). Materials which are used in construction include concrete, bricks, gypsum, glass, 
metal, plastic, solvents, and asbestos (European Commission, 2019a). The associated ex-
traction of natural materials, production, transportation, use and disposal of building ma-
terials all contribute to environmental degradation. In the past, construction materials 
have caused serious exposure problems during their use such as, radioactive radiation 
from radon and exposure to PCBs used in linings of concrete, and in their end phase when 
for example heavy metals were leaching from landfills. With projected population growth 
and urbanisation in Europe, there  will be continued  demand for construction (both of 
new and retrofitted buildings).  The building stock in Europe is ageing, with 40% of build-
ings built before 1960s and 90% before the 1990s (Artola, 2016).  This brings significant 
current and future challenges for repairing and retrofitting ageing, inefficient buildings 
and infrastructure (EEA, 2021).   

Insufficient global action has meant that climate change-related risks have moved from 
previously ‘hypothetical’ to now ‘certain’ (Apró et al., 2020; Meadows et al., 2004). De-
spite high environmental cost and inefficiencies in construction practices, there has been 
limited mainstreaming of construction practices which have lower environmental impacts 
(Ribeirinho et al., 2020). As the urgency to resolve issues associated with the environmen-
tal and climate impacts for buildings increases, researchers and developers are looking at 
solutions and approaches which increase the sustainability of construction. This has also 
spurred recent interest around concepts such as regenerative design, buildings and ma-
terials (Apró et al., 2020, 2018; Dias, 2015; Petrovski et al., 2021; Regeneration Interna-
tional, 2021; Venkata Mohan et al., 2020). The term ‘regenerative’ can be applied to a 
range of systems, approaches and industries (see also Issue 4 on regenerative agriculture) 
and generally refers to processes which not only ‘restore’ but improve social and ecolog-
ical  systems.  To  do  this,  regenerative  processes  broadly  seek  to  use  holistic  solutions 
which work with nature. Definitions for regenerative approaches vary both across and 
within disciplines and are often multi-faceted. 

For the built environment, the term can refer to regenerative materials, buildings and 
design overall. Regenerative design is not necessarily a new concept. The foundations of 
the regenerative design concept can be linked to work of Ian McHarg and the publication 
of ‘Design with Nature’ in 1969 which has been considered as the first landscape design 
approach which uses ecological approaches (Dias, 2015). 

This emerging issue focusses on regenerative materials, defined as materials which limit 
(or avoid entirely) environmental degradation whilst offering benefits and opportunities 
which enhance social and environmental outcomes. New technologies and collaboration 
across research disciplines are likely to offer new opportunities for regenerative materials 
and ultimately buildings. For example, some researchers anticipate that nano-structures, 
polymer composites, sensors, instrumentation and advanced manufacturing could com-
bine to create new biogenic building materials (Bejtullahu and Morishita-Steffen, 2021).   

There are several examples of regenerative materials. Biobased materials are a class of 
materials can be derived from nature, for example wood, bamboo or organic waste. Some 
of these materials have been used for millennia, however they have seen renewed inter-
est in the last 10 years. These materials can be classed as regenerative materials by offer-
ing carbon sequestration potential. Innovations in materials and construction has also led 
to the development of new regenerative materials (see Drivers section for more detail 
and examples) (Apró et al., 2018; Dias, 2015). The materials chosen should ideally be du-
rable, reusable, or recyclable, and resilient to humidity and temperature (Melia, et al., 
2014). Wherever possible, these materials should be sourced locally. Care is needed when 
determining if a material can be considered truly regenerative, both from a life cycle per-
spective but also how the material is sourced and utilised. Furthermore, it should be rec-
ognised that regenerative materials act only as a tool for delivering better environmental 

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Key  drivers: 
what  is  driv-
ing  the  emer-
gence  of  this 
issue? 

and social outcomes however they must be used as part of a wider suite of holistic ap-
proaches in order to truly deliver on this potential. A truly regenerative material should 
ensure that environmental and social benefits are offered throughout the lifecycle of the 
material. 

Recent and emerging regulations and policies  
Regulations, policies and programs are increasingly seeking to reduce the environmental 
impact and carbon intensity of the construction industry (Petersdorff et al., 2006; Savills, 
2020).  The  European  Green  Deal  aims  to  provide  transformative  change  and  encom-
passes contains strategies on biodiversity, circular economy, zero pollution, sustainable 
and smart mobility, renovation wave, sustainable food, hydrogen, batteries, offshore re-
newable energy and many others.  

Tighter policies regulating energy and resource efficiency  and carbon cost of buildings 
could lead to increased uptake of regenerative approaches and technologies which are 
primarily focused on decarbonisation but could also have wider environmental and pol-
lution benefits. These should ensure overall performance and build quality are delivered. 
The Fit for 55 package is a package which could further support the delivery of the Euro-
pean Green Deal and includes ambitions to strengthen eight existing pieces of legislation 
and presents five new initiatives, across a range policy areas and economic sectors, in-
cluding buildings (European Commission, 2021a). The EU Renovation Wave strategy con-
tains several lead actions including improving energy efficiency by retrofitting 35 million 
building  units  by  2030  to  improve  decarbonisation  and  energy  efficiency,  increase  the 
utilization of sustainable construction processes, such as Nature Based Solutions and the 
New European Bauhaus (European Commission, 2020). The New European Bauhaus also 
forms part of this strategy aims to support creative approaches for incorporating sustain-
ability and nature-based materials into design. Therefore the EU Renovation Wave strat-
egy could bolster interest in regenerative materials to deliver on these parts of the strat-
egy (European Commission, 2021b).  

The European Industrial Strategy lays out transition pathways for key ecosystems which 
includes the construction industry (European Commission, 2021c). This focusses on a twin 
transition which will be ‘green’ and ‘digital’ which will help to delivery on the goals of the 
EU Renovation Wave and the European Green Deal. In addition, the Circular Economy 
Action Plan also includes a focus on resources intensive sectors and where the chance of 
circularity is high. This includes the construction and buildings  (European Commission, 
2019a). This could bolster interest in regenerative approaches which may support circu-
larity. 

The Zero Pollution Action Plan could support the drive the uptake of approaches in con-
struct which reduce pollution such as from construction waste and processes as well as 
noise pollution (European Commission, 2021d). The European Green Deal has also out-
lined actions to further support the Zero Pollution ambition by 2050 (EEA, 2020).  

Pressure from investors to deliver on sustainability  
A growing number of investors are considering the sustainability performance of their 
portfolios, to avoid risks driven from increasing climate and environmental pressures. The 
EU Taxonomy is a delegated act and the first set of technical criteria for defining activities 
that  address  climate  mitigation  and  adaptation.  This  will be  followed  with  another  on 
circular economy and biodiversity. These criteria support sustainable finance. Economic 
agents are likely to place increasing pressure on businesses in the construction industry 
to consider environmental and social impacts (IIGCC, 2019). This will likely drive develop-
ers to explore and take up sustainable approaches. These approaches may align with re-
generative principles.  

Societal changes in behaviour and expectations  
Public awareness of pollution changes over time.  Since the 1960s, air pollution has been 
a concern for many Europeans and many believe that governments do not do enough on 
the issue (Eionet, 2020). There has also been a surge in awareness of plastic pollution in 
Europe in recent years (Filho et al., 2021). The public can play an important driving role 
for delivering change on the issue. For example, citizen empowerment has played an im-

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portant role in delivering on EU legislation on ambient air quality  (Misonne, 2021). In-
creasingly citizens are confronting authorities (e.g. at city level) with their concerns on air 
quality. Increased monitoring and availability of data could drive awareness of pollution 
issues further (Breezeometer, 2021; European Environment Agency, 2021a). With greater 
engagement, citizens could demand more from businesses, including the construction in-
dustry, which could lead to greater uptake of regenerative approaches which minimise or 
reduce pollution.  
Covid-19 has heightened people’s awareness of air pollution in cities and human’s rela-
tionship with nature (Agarwal et al., 2021). Meanwhile, the pandemic may be changing 
citizen’s priorities for living in cities (see Issue 1 which explores urban settlement pat-
terns) (European Environment Agency, 2021b). For example, the pandemic has led to an 
increased demand for properties outside of big cities which benefit from better access to 
green space and reduced noise pollution. However, there are uncertainties regarding how 
the pandemic may have changed citizen’s behaviours in practice and whether this will be 
a lasting trend. Nonetheless, it is recognised that investment in infrastructure and public 
realm will be an important strategy for stimulating urban economic activity during the 
covid-19 recovery period (European Environment Agency, 2021b). This could place addi-
tional pressure on urban designers and architects to explore regenerative approaches to 
make cities more attractive.  

Emergence of new regenerative innovations and approaches 
Innovation in regenerative materials could drive environmental and social outcomes of 
regenerative approaches.  

There are several funding opportunities for research in regenerative materials for build-
ing materials within Europe, such as from Horizon 2020 and the New European Bauhaus 
(European Commission, 2021b)(European Commission, 2019b). Under the Horizon 2020 
funding there are several projects which utilise regenerative principles in the built envi-
ronment, including (among a number of others) Build Upon 2, CIRCuIT, Built4People, Cit-
yLoops, REFLOW (Build Upon2, 2021; European Commission, 2019c, 2019d, 2019e). 

At the materials level, there are a wealth of promising types of regenerative materials. 
Living Building Materials (LBMs) is one example of a promising area of research that could 
class as regenerative materials. This class of building materials utilises synthetic biology 
(see also Issue 9 which focusses on synthetic biology) to create materials (Heveran et al., 
2020). Reported benefits include increased efficient material production processes, im-
proved material characteristics and low environmental impacts. Self-mending concrete, 
for example, utilises photosynthetic bacteria to grow into fissures and cracks, filling and 
repairing them (Zeeberg, 2020). The resultant material is low carbon, as the bacteria use 
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a key substrate to form the resultant material. Ma-
terials made from fungal mycelium composites could also be used in regenerative build-
ing materials which can remove toxic chemicals from the environment whilst providing a 
useful material (Jones et al., 2020).  

Innovations also exist for biobased materials. For example, one company explores using 
waste organic peel and waste grass clippings to create insulation or flooring tiles (Roberts, 
2020). This innovation has opportunities both as a regenerative material and as part of 
the circular economy.  

At the time of writing, foresight work on regenerative buildings and construction materi-
als  is  limited.  However  existing  literature  suggests  there  is  increasing  pressure  for  the 
construction industry to use approaches which have a lower environmental impact.  This 
could in turn lead to greater interest in regenerative approaches (European Commission, 
2019a; Ribeirinho et al., 2020).  

Several  potential  innovations  and  approaches  could  disrupt  current  approaches  in  the 
sector to deliver regenerative buildings in the future (Ribeirinho et al., 2020).  To provide 
some specific concrete examples (potentially among many more): 
• 

Existing buildings could be retrofitted to become more regenerative, such as to in-
corporate a façade which utilises solar energy for heating and cooling whilst any ex-
cess  energy  is  used  to  power  an  electrostatic  filter  to  improve  indoor  air  quality 
(BuildHeat, 2021).  

February 2022  46 

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EUROPEAN COMMISSION, DG ENVIRONMENT 
FORENV 2020-21: EMERGING ISSUES IMPACTING THE DELIVERY OF A ZERO POLLUTION AMBITION BY 2050 

•  Buildings may work with nature to both improve air quality and produce food. For 
example, a start-up company (Biosolar) propose to use algae suspended in panels to 
produce protein via photosynthesis which is suitable for human consumption (Impe-
rial College London, 2019).  
Early  research  suggests  that  buildings  could  self-heal  as  well  as  grow  themselves 
through  directed  environmental  stimulus  (Heveran  et  al.,  2020;  Srubar,  2020; 
Zeeberg, 2020).   

• 

•  Biophilic design18 could be integrated throughout all new developments, which aims 
to increase connectivity between people and nature through design (Lee and Park, 
2021).  

The lack of consensus around how to define regenerative materials could lead to a lack 
of standardisation in terms of implementation and outcomes in future. Technologies in 
regenerative materials may be pushed as ‘easy solutions’ by businesses and identified as 
‘quick wins’ by policymakers to justify what is in essence a business-as-usual approach. 
Academic literature suggests that technological solutions alone will not be sufficient to 
reduce the economic harm caused by pollution (Chantret et al., 2020).  However, some 
may adopt a more holistic definition for the concept of regenerative buildings which de-
liver better environmental and social outcomes.  

Replacing traditional materials with composite materials has been seen as an important 
change towards sustainability, however there may be concerns on the impact of some of 
these materials on human health. For example, there has been an interest in composite 
materials which may offer enhanced resource efficiencies and material performance. For 
example, fiberglass reinforced concrete which is a designed material. These products can 
use cellulose, polypropylene fibres, polyvinyl alcohol fibres, aramid and glass fibres in-
stead of asbestos fibres. The risks of such materials are mainly on human health and en-
vironment. For example, erionite fibre, used as a new asbestos replacement material, is 
a mineral fibre that causes malignant mesothelioma and has been classified in group 1 
(human carcinogen) by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Further research 
into the health and environmental risks of new materials will be needed before materials 
enter the market. However, there is less research available on new materials compared 
to traditional materials (EC Scientific Committee, 2021) 

Policy initiatives (e.g. The European Green Deal, New European Bauhaus) could support 
greater  uptake  of  regenerative  materials.  It  is  likely  that  financial  instruments  will  be 
needed to support greater uptake of regenerative innovations (Ribeirinho et al., 2020).  
At the same time current trends in increasing measurement and certification in construc-
tion could provide incentives for developers to look towards regenerative materials. Sev-
eral schemes exist for certification which have different assessment criteria and perfor-
mance standards therefore outcomes and benefits vary. However, certification could pro-
vide as a relevant instrument to increase the update of regenerative materials in build-
ings. The Living Future Europe, part of the International Living Future Institute, hosts the 
Living  Building  Challenge  and  aims  to  support  and  assess  regenerative  design  in  new 
buildings (International Living Future Institute, 2020).  

The supply chain disruption caused by the covid-19 pandemic may contribute to the ac-
celeration of the transformation of the construction industry. This led to a rise in invest-
ments in digitalisation and supply-chain management during the first year of the pan-
demic, indicating that current norms in a fragmented, globalised industry could be chang-
ing (Ribeirinho et al., 2020). This could provide opportunities for incumbents to play a 
driving role in changing the industry, perhaps towards the greater use of regenerative 
materials and approaches. Covid-19 recovery plans, such as the European Recovery fund, 
may support the sustainable renovation of buildings through investment in the construc-
tion. This could further support the uptake of regenerative technologies.    

18 Biophilic design refers to the integration of nature in an architectural environment to have a positive impact on hu-
man health and wellbeing (Lee and Park, 2021). For example, the use of natural materials (e.g. wood) or the incorpora-
tion of green infrastructure. 

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implica-

Potential 
tions 
for the EU’s ability to 
deliver  a  zero-pollu-
tion ambition 

New 
regenerative 
materials,  such  as 
LBMs, are developed 
and used in construc-
tion. 

Opportunities 
(for  our  ability  to  deliver  a  zero-pollu-
tion ambition) 

Risks 
(to our ability to deliver a zero-pollution 
ambition) 

Innovations  and  improvements  in  re-
generative materials lead to better per-
formance outcomes as well as environ-
mental and social outcomes. For exam-
ple, materials may reduce air pollution 
as well as offer better insulating mate-
rials to reduce noise pollution and im-
prove energy efficiency.  

Innovations may be marketed as ‘pollu-
tion  negative’  but  may  lead  to  unin-
tended  consequences  which  increases 
pollution,  hindering  the  ability  to  de-
liver  on  Zero  Pollution.  For  example, 
photocatalytic pigments were found to 
lead  to  increased  VOCs  and  tropo-
spheric Ozone (Defra, 2016). 

If these materials are used in conjunc-
tion with other approaches in line with 
Zero Pollution, such as digital twins (Eu-
ropean  Commission,  2021e),  better 
outcomes  on  Zero  Pollution  targets  in 
the  built  environment  might  be 
achieved. 

New materials may lead to emissions to 
the  environment,  both  during  use 
(through  e.g.  wear)  and  in  their  waste 
phase.  This could lead to harm on hu-
man  health  and  the  environment. 
There may be nanotoxicity concerns for 
new nanomaterials 

Reduced  use  of  haz-
ardous  construction 
materials which have 
negative 
environ-
mental impacts.  

Reduced  pollution  (i.e.  construction 
waste, dust, noise pollution, water pol-
lution  from  chemicals  used  onsite) 
through  alternative  construction  ap-
proaches 
Commission, 
2021b). These could help support Zero 
Pollution targets in delivering on reduc-
ing  waste  generation,  improving  air 
quality and improving water quality. 

(European 

exploita-
Potential 
tion  of  a 
lack  of 
standardisation  and 
definition of regener-
ative approaches. 

There could be a focus on technological 
solutions (quick-fixes) rather than more 
holistic approaches. 

There is the potential for new risks as-
sociated with the use of more environ-
mentally sustainable materials. For ex-
ample,  using  biobased  materials.  may 
increase susceptibility to fire. 

Newly developed materials may be se-
lected  because  of  their  lower  carbon 
footprint  as  well  as  lower  contents  of 
contaminants. However, they may pose 
emerging, 'new' problems. Examples of 
the 
latter  are  polyfluoroalkyl  sub-
stances (PFAS) used in coatings, the use 
of polyurethane reinforcement (PUR) in 
concrete and the increasing use of na-
nomaterials and (micro)plastics in con-
struction. 

Without a standardised definition there 
could be the potential for ‘greenwash-
ing’  where  developers  claim  buildings 
are  regenerative  without  substantive 
evidence. This could lead to false claims 
on the pollution impact of the construc-
tion process. This could hinder the Zero 
Pollution  ambition  by  delivering  false 
solutions. 

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As Europe decarbon-
ises,  existing  build-
ings  are  retrofitted 
with regenerative so-
lutions which use less 
energy. 

New  materials  and 
innovations  may  of-
fer  opportunities  for 
increased  recyclabil-
ity and circularity. 

Regenerative  solutions  which  support 
decarbonising and energy efficiency im-
provements to buildings may also have 
a  positive  impact  on  pollution  reduc-
tion. 

Increased  resource  efficiencies  could 
lead to less waste and associated pollu-
tion which could support the Zero Pol-
lution ambition. 

New  hazards  may  occur  through  the 
production, use and recycling processes 
of the new materials. 

This is plausible in the medium to long-term (10+yrs).  

Timeframe  of 
emergence  

Examples of innovations which truly deliver on regenerative principles are limited so far, 
however this is an increasingly active area of research, particularly for LBMs (Heveran et 
al., 2020).  As a result breakthroughs could emerge that lead to the rapid uptake of new 
materials or approaches in future. 

Uncertainties 

Additional re-
search  or  evi-
that 
dence 
may 
be 
needed 

The likelihood of regenerative materials being used and the way they may be used in the 
built environment is uncertain.  There are uncertainties on the rate of uptake of regener-
ative materials and design and the potential implications for Zero Pollution.  

The construction industry has historically been highly risk averse and slow to take up in-
novations widely across the value chain (European Commission, 2019f; Ribeirinho et al., 
2020).  For example, digital innovations such a 3D-printing have the potential for signifi-
cant  advantages, such  as  for resource  efficiency,  and  arguably  the  potential  to  deliver 
significant changes. However, so far, its use in construction has been limited (European 
Commission,  2019f).    Innovations  in  technology  that  support  regenerative  design  may 
follow a similar course in the absence of adequate policy and financial instruments to 
support mainstreaming in the construction sector.  

Furthermore, there are uncertainties as to the role of Covid-19 and the potential acceler-
ation towards a ‘new-normal’ in construction (Ribeirinho et al., 2020). Whilst there are 
potential changes which could arise within the market, both for the renovation of existing 
buildings and new builds, there are significant uncertainties whether these will remain in 
the long-term. 

There are uncertainties on the overall impact of regenerative approaches. Without a full 
assessment  of  impact,  unintended  consequences  could  arise  which  could  lead  to  in-
creased pollution or social costs.  

There are uncertainties whether innovative regenerative materials, such as LBMs, will get 
to scale. Significant challenges exist in getting innovation from a research prototype to a 
commercially viable product. Certification, tests, cost, consumer acceptance and scaling 
all provide challenges which must be overcome (Srubar, 2020). 

As noted a large amount of research is ongoing in relation to regenerative and new ma-
terials, including for construction (see Emergence of new regenerative innovations and 
approaches under drivers section above).  While a review of this existing research to iden-
tify research gaps was not possible in context of FORENV, based on the evidence reviewed 
for this issue, additional research may be needed on the feasibility, performance and suit-
ability of new, innovative materials and technologies, to maximise their application in the 
real world. For example, research in some LBMs demonstrates a trade-off between their 
ability to regenerate and their mechanical performance which may limit their ability to 
replace cement or other existing materials (Heveran et al., 2020).   

As potentially promising materials emerge, further research will be needed to determine 
the potential life-cycle environmental impacts of any developed approaches and how to 
use them in order to optimise outcomes in order to ensure that they truly deliver on re-
generative principles. For regenerative innovations, such as building materials, full life-
cycle assessments are recommended to determine potential implications for pollution. 
Retraining  and  new  skills  in  the  construction  and  maintenance  sectors  may  also  be 

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References 

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An agreed definition for regenerative approaches is also needed to optimise social and 
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As noted, there are significant uncertainties about the overall impact of regenerative ap-
proaches.  Full life-cycle analysis are needed to assess the potential impact on the envi-
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Issue 3: Purpose driven business: will the emergence of initiatives such as certified 'B' corpora-
tions play a major role in realising zero pollution?  

Emerging  issue 
description 

Shifting societal perceptions of the importance of social and environmental issues has 
led to increasing demand for businesses to act.  Growing pressure from investors, con-
sumers and employees, emerging legislation, and growing evidence for the associated 
business opportunities is driving a trend towards stakeholder capitalism19, the emer-
gence of ‘purpose-driven’ businesses20 and enhanced environmental, social, and gov-
ernance (ESG) reporting21. For example, the number of certified B corporations has tri-
pled in the last five years to 3,500 across 70 countries (Kohamn, 2021), although this 
still represents a very small fraction of all businesses. The idea that a company should 
contribute more to society than simply profit for its shareholders is now common in 
public dialogue, with some evidence emerging that the global pandemic has accelerated 
this trend (Dailey, 2021; Auge, 2020; Webb, 2020; Cone, 2021).  

As the world continues to look towards companies to advance positive change, a recent 
study by a business communications agency suggests that brands leading with ‘purpose’ 
(defined by this study as ‘an organisation’s unique role and value in society that allows 
it to both grow the business and positively impact the world’) will yield advantages, in-
cluding stronger reputation, brand affinity and bottom-line results (Zeno, 2020).  The 
same study reports that global consumers are four to six times more likely to trust, buy, 
champion and protect those companies with a strong purpose over those with a weaker 
one (ibid).  Many consumers now have expectations that go beyond quality products 
and customer service.  They  would like businesses to share their values and demon-
strate positive contributions to society and the planet (Deloitte Insights, 2020; Accen-
ture Strategy, 2018; Be-novative, 2021). 

The increasing expectation and requirement for businesses to manage environmental 
and social risk and report on ESG impacts has led to the emergence of initiatives and 
legislation  that  aim  to  standardise  metrics  and  requirements  for  ESG  reporting  (e.g. 
World Economic Forum Stakeholder Capitalism Metrics, EU directive on sustainability 
reporting). With the new stakeholder capitalism agenda, there is also a growing focus 
on transparency and accountability and regulations such as the new EU taxonomy for 
sustainable  activities22  aim  to  prevent  ‘greenwashing’  and will  mean  that  businesses 
that assert themselves as ‘purpose-driven’ will have to back this up with evidence. Ac-
cess to information and direct access to business leaders, e.g. through social media, also 
enables individuals to hold businesses directly accountable for their actions (and inac-
tions) (Mueller, 2021).  

Key 
drivers: 
what  is  driving 

Pressure from individuals, including customers and employees 
There is increasing pressure for businesses and private sector organisations to have a 

19 Stakeholder capitalism is a form of capitalism in which companies seek long-term value creation by taking into ac-
count the needs of all their stakeholders, and society at large (Schwab & Vanham, 2021). 
20 A business’ purpose is the positive contribution it brings to the world (aba, 2020). Purpose-driven businesses operate 
with the aim to produce “profitable solutions to the problems of people and planet” (ReGenerate Trust, 2020). They 
have a purpose beyond profit for shareholders that looks to satisfy all stakeholders of the business including employees, 

customers, society as a whole and shareholders (Deloitte Insights, 2020). They both articulate their purpose and actively 
reflect it in their business model, governance and operations, and measure their impact (ReGenerate Trust, 2020). 
21 Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) reporting refers to the disclosure of data covering three areas/criteria: 
environment, social, and corporate governance. Socially conscious investors use reported ESG criteria to screen poten-

tial investments. Environmental criteria consider how a company performs as a steward of nature. Social criteria exam-
ine how it manages relationships with employees, suppliers, customers, and the communities where it operates. Gov-

ernance deals with a company’s leadership, executive pay, audits, internal controls, and shareholder rights (In-
vestopedia, 2021). 
22 “The EU taxonomy is a classification system, establishing a list of environmentally sustainable economic activities. The 
EU taxonomy is an important enabler to scale up sustainable investment and to implement the European Green Deal.” 

https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/sustainable-finance/eu-taxonomy-sustainable-
activities_en  

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the  emergence 
of this issue? 

‘purpose’ beyond delivering profit for shareholders.  Technology and media have given 
individuals the power to stand up for (or at least express) their beliefs and opinions on 
a  large  scale  than  was  the  case  before  the  advent  of  the  internet  and  social  media 
(Mueller,  2021).    62%  of  customers  want  companies  to  take  a  stand  on  current  and 
broadly relevant issues like sustainability, transparency or fair employment practices 
(Accenture Strategy, 2018).  This trend is even more pronounced in younger generations 
of  consumers,  notably  Millennials  and  Gen  Z23  (Be-novative,  2021;  Fuse  Marketing, 
2015).  

Pressure from investors and the finance sector 
Investors and the finance sector are increasingly asking companies to provide enhanced 
financial disclosures on managing systemic risks e.g., environmental and climate risks 
(Napach, 2020; World Economic Forum, 2020).  BlackRock announced, in its 2021 Global 
Outlook report, a “new investment order” in which sustainability is set to become a key 
component of portfolio allocations for decades to come (Napach, 2020). 

Increasing expectation for businesses to be transparent on sustainability/ESG perfor-
mance 
For example, in 2020 the World Economic Forum’s International Business Council (IBC) 
published a report of a common set of “Stakeholder Capitalism Metrics”, for companies 
to use to align their mainstream reporting on performance against ESG indicators and 
track their contributions towards the SDGs on a consistent basis (World Economic Fo-
rum, 2020). 

Recent and emerging policy and legislation/regulations 
Such as the new EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, the EU Taxonomy for 
sustainable activities (European Commission, 2021), the EU Zero Pollution Action Plan 
(as part of the wider EU Green Deal).  

Growing influence of international sustainability agenda/goals and targets 
Such as the Sustainable Development Goals (UN General Assembly, 2015), Davos Man-
ifesto 2020 (World Economic Forum, 2019).  

The COVID 19 pandemic 
The COVID 19 pandemic has escalated and exacerbated pressures on social issues and 
has highlighted the interconnectedness between economic, social and environmental 
systems that the world relies on (Dailey, 2021; Uren, 2021).  

The need for business resilience / mitigating risks 
Profit-driven business’, who’s focus is on profit maximisation and satisfying sharehold-
ers’ interests, are less equipped for longer-term success (Sachs, 2020).  There is also an 
increased likelihood of corporate liability for social and environmental impacts from op-
erations (Setzer & Byrnes, 2020).  Companies that refuse or are slow to invest in corpo-
rate social responsibility (CSR) action risk reputational damage, loss of brand loyalty, 
loss of talent, and reduced financing sources (Beals, 2021). 

Business advantages/opportunities  
Evidence suggests there are business opportunities from extending business purpose 
beyond profit for shareholders.  Purpose-driven businesses, and businesses with high 
perceived positive impact, have been shown to have a competitive advantage over their 
competitors/businesses with a lower perceived positive impact (Kantar, 2020; Deloitte 
Insights, 2020).  Companies with ‘a strong sense of purpose’ have been shown to inno-
vate better (Deloitte Insights, 2020; EY Harvard Beacon Institute survey cited by Aziz, 
2020).  In the wake of the 2008 economic crash, B Corp businesses were 64% more likely 
to survive than those operating on traditional principles of commerce (Chhabra, 2020). 

23 70% of millennials expect their employers to focus on societal or mission-driven problems (Be-novative, 2021). The 
trend is even more pronounced for Gen-Z, who are 85% more likely to trust a brand, 84% more likely to buy their prod-

ucts, and 82% likely to recommend a brand to their friends and family after learning said brand supports a social cause 
or is socially responsible (Fuse Marketing, 2015). 

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How  might  the 
issue  develop 
in future? 

The business opportunities relating to stakeholder capitalism and purpose-driven busi-
ness strategies are increasingly being recognised and could lead to the adoption of pur-
pose-driven  strategies  becoming  mainstream.  For  example,  research  by  Ernst  and 
Young  suggests  that  companies  that  align  themselves  to  the  stakeholder  capitalism 
agenda and prioritise long-term value creation are well positioned to experience a com-
petitive advantage in the coming years (Ernst & Young Australia, 2020).  

The  Covid-19  pandemic  has  also  accelerated  stakeholder  capitalism  as  it  has  forced 
companies to put human needs (e.g. worker safety and customer support) before short-
term profits (Cone, 2021).  According to a study conducted by the branding and social 
impact consultancy, BBMG, six in ten people under age 30 want the post-pandemic re-
covery to prioritise ‘restructuring our economy so it deals better with challenges like 
inequality and climate change’ (Cone, 2021). The OECD also asserts that to ‘build back 
better’ from the covid crisis will require a people-centred recovery that focuses on re-
ducing inequalities, as well as strengthening resilience to environmental/climate crises 
(OECD, 2020).   

Emerging regulations and legislation mentioned previously in the drivers will also in-
creasingly require businesses to consider their environmental and social impacts. This 
will add pressure on businesses that are not already doing so, to consider these impacts 
in their strategies and operations. 

As the momentum builds for businesses to commit to tackling the most pressing envi-
ronmental and social issues, so does the expectation for businesses to be transparent 
and accountable on said commitments, as well as the wider environmental and social 
impacts of their operations (see drivers).  The future success of purpose-driven busi-
nesses relies on the ability to establish credibility by demonstrating real commitment 
to  delivering  profitable  solutions  to  societal  (and  environmental)  problems  (Mayer, 
2020).  Although some examples, such as plastics, can be high-profile, many types of 
pollution are often indirect, up / downstream and/or diffuse, or are not perceived as 
being a particular problem, and it is not clear therefore the extent to which pollution 
may be considered a priority for purpose driven businesses to address (see uncertain-
ties below). 

Collaborative initiatives for purpose-driven businesses are expanding and new ones be-
ing created; examples include the Leaders on Purpose network24, the University of Cam-
bridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL) 25, The Purposeful Company 26, and 
the  Vatican-convened  Council  for  Inclusive  Capitalism27  (Edie,  2020).  Such  initiatives 
aim  to  promote  purpose-driven  business  and  help  businesses  measure/demonstrate 
their social and environmental contributions/impacts. For example, the Council for In-
clusive Capitalism requires members to commit to specific actions to create long-term 
value for all stakeholders in line with the International Business Council’s four sustaina-
bility pillars (People, Planet, Prosperity, and Principles of Governance), and to reporting 
progress in line with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (Council for Inclu-
sive Capitalism, n.d.). The next decade could see a more unified/standardised approach 
to reporting on business ‘purpose’ emerge, similar to the current trend in ESG reporting. 

As of June 2021, globally 345 commitments have been made by 92 organisations, cov-
ering issues like climate change, waste, water and air pollution, racial equality and gen-
der equality (ibid).  This has increased from 231 commitments by 28 organisations in 
December 2020 (Edie, 2020) demonstrating that this is a growing trend. Other initia-
tives, such as B corporation certification have also seen an increase in number of organ-
isations in recent years (Kohan, 2021).  

Deloitte’s 2019 Consumer Pulsing Survey of 4,000 consumers across the US, UK, China, 
and Brazil revealed that the top issues consumers identify with when making decisions 
about brands were how they treat their people (28% of respondents), how they treat 

24 https://www.leadersonpurpose.com/  
25 https://www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/  
26 https://thepurposefulcompany.org/  
27 https://www.inclusivecapitalism.com/  

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the  environment  (20%  of  respondents),  and  how  they  support  the  communities  in 
which they operate (19% of respondents) (O’Brien et al, 2019). This aligns with some of 
the  top  purpose  trends  that brands are  identifying  and  adopting  currently,  including 
continuing progress on climate commitments and accelerating past carbon neutrality 
(e.g.  decarbonisation),  engaging  in  social  justice  issues  (notably  racism),  ensuring  di-
verse representation in products and services, prioritising employee well-being, sustain-
able packaging, and ensuring measurable action on commitments (Dailey, 2021).  

Opportunities 
(for  our  ability  to  deliver  a  zero-
pollution ambition) 

implications 
Potential 
for  the  EU’s  ability  to  de-
liver  a  zero-pollution  am-
bition 
Note: there are major uncertainties around whether ‘purpose-driven business’ will become the norm and 
very little evidence to suggest how this could affect the delivery of a zero-pollution ambition. Furthermore, 
it is difficult to separate the risks/opportunities for purpose-driven business from broader movements (e.g. 
transition to a circular economy, de-growth movement, etc).  

Risks 
(to our ability to deliver a zero-pollution 
ambition) 

The opportunities and risks associated with the potential ability of purpose-driven business models to de-
liver on the Zero Pollution ambition will differ between  different sectors and types of business, for example 
multinational company comparted to a local SME. 

Opportunity to expose highly pol-
luting  industries  and  organisa-
tions  to  the  public  and  to  inves-
tors. This could increase pressure 
for businesses to reduce polluting 
activities.   

A  requirement  for  en-
hanced  ESG 
reporting 
would  mean  businesses 
will  need  to  disclose  im-
pacts on the environment, 
including pollution. Stand-
ardised  ESG 
reporting 
frameworks  would  make 
it  easier 
to  compare 
across sectors and organi-
sations.  Highly  polluting 
companies/industries 
could be exposed and this 
could  have  negative  im-
pacts on share prices, will-
ingness of investors to in-
vest,  and  brand  reputa-
tion among consumers.  

Opportunity  for  societal  actors, 
citizens, policymakers and others 
to hold businesses far more to ac-
count.  This  could  also  be  an  op-
portunity for policymakers to be-
come  more  ambitious  or  bold  in 
regulating  businesses:  with  bet-
ter,  more  reliable  and  transpar-
ent  data  from  businesses,  better 
decisions can be made politically 
to  govern  businesses  and  force 
transformation  through  regula-
tion. 

• 
Could  disproportionately  affect 
SMEs that do not have the resources to 
be  able  to  produce  full  disclosure  re-
ports,  with  negative  economic  conse-
quences.  Large  corporations  also  have 
the  ability  to  dissociate  their  activities 
under  different  companies,  thus  the 
branding efforts could be centred on the 
companies  that  do  well  on  that  theme, 
while  the  other  ones  are  less advertised. 
For  example,  the  certified  B  corporation, 
Innocent  Drinks,  who  claim  environmen-
tal  sustainability  in  central  to  their  busi-
ness  purpose  (Innocent  Drinks,  2019),  is 
owned by Coca Cola, one of the top plas-
tic polluters in the world (Break Free From 
Plastic, 2020).  
Additionally, the reporting of ESG crite-
ria is only as reliable as the quality of the 
reporting standard and the transparency 
of the procedure. Without this, the risk 
of greenwashing is high.  
• 
Historically,  vested  interests  (in-
cumbent businesses) have preferred in-
cremental  change  to  transformational 
change, as long as governance support is 
in  place.  ESG  and  purpose-driven  busi-
ness risks placing a ‘green’ gloss on busi-
ness-as-usual: 
incremental 
another 
change  rather  than  transformational 
change. Thus, the long-term risk of fail-
ure is high unless ESG has some regula-
tory  outcome,  or  unless  there  is  some 
stricter  monitoring/sanctions  mecha-
nism (EEA SC, 2021). 

Although  there  is  strong 
in  some  areas 
interest 
(e.g.  carbon  emissions, 

There is opportunity for zero pol-
lution  to  become  a  key  part  of 
business  ‘purpose’  strategies  as 

There is potential risk for zero pollution 
to  be  missed  off  the  agenda  when  it 
comes  to  business  ‘purpose’ strategies. 

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plastic waste), zero pollu-
tion does not appear to be 
high  up  on  the  agenda  in 
terms  of  purpose  strate-
gies  being  adopted  by 
businesses/corporations.  

pollution  significantly 
impacts 
people and planet. This would de-
pend  on  pollution  becoming  a 
topic  that  consumers/employ-
ers/investors  put  pressure  on 
businesses  to  address.  However, 
there is some evidence to support 
this,  for  example,  one  survey 
found  that  88%  of  German  and 
UK  fashion  consumers  said  that 
they  felt  that  more  attention 
should be paid to reducing pollu-
tion (McKinsey & Co., 2020). 

As  demand  for  business 
action  on  climate  change 
continues  to  grow,  more 
businesses  will  have  to 
mitigate their negative cli-
mate impacts and demon-
strate  how  they  are  posi-
tively  contributing  to  the 
climate emergency.  

action  on 

climate 
Business 
change 
could  have  positive 
knock-on  impacts  on  pollution 
e.g.  reducing  emissions  of  pollu-
tants  associated  with  the  use  of 
fossil fuels.  

For example, key current trends driving 
the emergence of ‘purpose-driven’ busi-
ness are largely focused on social issues, 
and  recently  this  social  focus  has  been 
sharpened a result of the pandemic e.g. 
the attention placed on how large com-
panies  such  as  Amazon  have  treated 
their workers throughout the pandemic 
(Newton,  2020).  Social  justice  issues 
such as racism have also become much 
more  important  to  businesses  in  the 
wake  of  the  Black  Live  Matter  move-
ment.  

A  predominant  focus  on  social  issues 
(while  positive  in  its  own  right)  could 
make  it  less  likely  that  purpose  driven 
business will play a key role in delivering 
the EU zero pollution ambition.  

Zero pollution can seem hard to achieve 
and  basic  efforts  are  often  not  enough 
(e.g. Elan, 2021). This can lead to a level 
of  fatigue  among  consumers.  Further-
more,  'zero  pollution'  may  appear  an 
empty term and can only be made tangi-
ble  by  explicit  definition  of  tolerable 
thresholds.  The  general  acceptance  of 
these (and their anchoring in binding leg-
islation)  is  a  necessary  prerequisite  for 
consistent action. 

International companies and corporates 
are usually quick to adapt and will often 
identify  the  right  level  of  'showing  that 
they care' for each country in which they 
operate. Therefore, only mitigating neg-
ative  impacts  in  countries  that  have 
stricter regulations / higher demand for 
climate/environmental action.  

Timeframe  of 
emergence  

Uncertainties 

Based on current trends this issue is expected to emerge in the short- to medium-term.   

Purpose driven businesses already exist, and evidence suggests that the number of pur-
pose-driven businesses is already growing and that global players in the business world 
are considering how more businesses can adopt this strategy (Deloitte, 2020; Ernst and 
Young Australia, 2020). Research with SMEs found that 77% of survey respondents re-
ferred to their business as ‘purpose-led’ (Aba, 2020).  

The future trajectory of purpose-driven business as a widespread business model is un-
known. The evidence base is broadly created by businesses themselves or businesses 
that  have  a  stake  in  creating  purpose-driven  businesses/helping  businesses  become 
purpose-led so may therefore be overly positive/biased. Furthermore, there is research 
suggesting that the time of profit-driven business within a growth paradigm may be com-
ing to an end, or at least perhaps should come to an end (Raworth, 2017; EEA, 2021). This 
movement poses a risk to current business models, and even to the purpose-driven busi-
ness model, as profit-making remains central to this model also.  
Many companies currently use ‘purpose’ in a superficial way or as a marketing tool ra-
ther than as a core function (Goel, 2021) and research has shown that people struggle 
to identify true purpose-driven businesses (ReGenerate, 2021). How the trend in stake-
holder  capitalism  and  purpose-driven  business  develops  will  strongly  depend  on 

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whether true purpose-driven companies can be distinguished from others that might 
just be jumping on the ‘purpose’ trend for marketing purposes. The establishment of 
initiatives, standards and/or certifications, such as B corporations, could help purpose-
driven brands and organisations gain credibility. However, as mentioned in the previous 
section, many different collaborative initiatives are emerging and this could create more 
confusion if they are all promoting a slightly different idea of ‘purpose-driven’ business 
strategies, for example.  

Additionally,  there  is  a  risk  with  purpose-driven  business  that  it  becomes  a  form  of 
greenwashing that consciously or unconsciously delays action by businesses to shift to-
wards zero-pollution and decarbonisation, or that it becomes a box-ticking exercise that 
does  not  lead  to  major  transformational  change.  The  longer  society  (including  busi-
nesses)  delays  making  the  transformation  to  zero-pollution/decarbonisation,  the 
greater the negative impacts of the climate and ecological crises. 

There are also major uncertainties around what implications this emerging issue will 
have for the EU’s ability to achieve the Zero Pollution ambition. Other than carbon emis-
sions and plastic waste, from the evidence reviewed here, other forms of pollution do 
not  seem  to  be  a  key  issue  of  interest  for  businesses  adopting  a  purpose-driven  ap-
proach.  As  purpose-driven  businesses  and  businesses  responding  to  the  stakeholder 
capitalism agenda are guided by the needs of their stakeholders, including individual 
consumers/employees,  whether  these  businesses  commit  to  zero  pollution  ambition 
will largely be driven by pressure from these stakeholders.  

The advantages of profiling a business in a particular way (e.g. as addressing environmen-
tal issues such as pollution) is directly linked to people's perception of the existence of a 
real problem. If consumers/business stakeholders are not aware of pollution as an issue, 
or do not perceive it to be particularly problematic, then the issue of pollution may prove 
rather insignificant for corporate identity and change.  
•  Better understanding and defining ‘purpose’ driven business. 
•  Understanding  the  real  (or  potential)  relationship  between  purpose  driven  busi-
nesses / sectors and environmental outcomes, including pollution reduction. 
•  Research  into  consumer  perceptions  of  different  types  of  pollution  as  a  societal 
problem,  and  how  these  might  better  be  integrated  in  initiatives  and  accredita-
tion/monitoring related to purpose driven businesses. 

• 

•  As  previously  mentioned,  an  explicit  definition  of  zero  pollution  and  tolerable 
thresholds for pollution need to be identified and anchored in legislation before 
consistent action is likely to be taken by businesses.  
Further  research  into  how  purpose-driven  business  (and  associated  opportuni-
ties/risks) fits into broader movements and wider societal objectives (e.g. transition 
towards a circular economy, zero-pollution, decarbonisation, just transitions and 
even de-growth).  
Further  research  into  how  the  potential  risks  and  opportunities  associated  with 
purpose-driven business differ between businesses of different sizes, sectors etc.  
Aba  (2020)  SMEs  and  Purpose:  Ditching  or  doubling  down?  Aba  report.  online: 
https://aba-design.co.uk/app/uploads/SMEs-Purpose-research-2020-condensed-re-
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• 

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Auge, L. (31 May 2020) Coronavirus pandemic provides perfect platform for corporate 
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Aziz, A. (2020) The Power Of Purpose: The Business Case For Purpose (All The Data You 
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Looking 

Forbes. 

For 

1). 

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Additional 
re-
search  or  evi-
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Issue 4: Will regenerative agriculture emerge as a key trend in Europe that helps deliver the 
zero-pollution agenda? 

Recent research and evidence e.g. on planetary boundaries and Europe’s state of en-
vironment (European Environment Agency, 2019; Steffen et al., 2015) show that de-
spite decades of environmental policy we are ‘generally failing in our current approach 
to sustainability’ (Hes and Rose, 2019).  This has led to increased interest in regenera-
tive and restorative approaches, which are considered essential if the world is to stay 
within planetary boundaries (Earnst & Young Australia, 2020).   

A recent review defined the regenerative economy (in context of the circular economy) 
as ‘the promotion of self-renewal capacity of natural systems with the aim of reactivat-
ing  ecological  processes  damaged  or  over-exploited  by  human  action’  (Morseletto, 
2020).  This focus on natural systems and ecology means that regeneration is perhaps 
particularly relevant in the context of agriculture (Morseletto, 2020).  Agriculture is 
also a major source of pollution in Europe (EEA, 2020, 2019), and as such a move to 
regenerative practices may create opportunities (but also risks) for the realisation of 
the Zero Pollution ambition.   

Historically, some farming communities maintained a ‘reciprocal relationship’ with the 
land (Hes and Rose, 2019), and the term in its modern conception has been in use since 
at least the 1980s (Morseletto, 2020).  However, the ongoing decline of ecosystems 
and biodiversity (including soil health), as well as climate change, has renewed focus 
and interest in regenerative agricultural practices, with some predicting that it repre-
sents the future of farming (Farm Together, n.d.; Farmers Weekly, 2021; Regeneration 
International, 2021; Williams, 2021).   
Fenster et al., 2021 reviewed the key principles of regenerative agriculture: 1) reduce 
or eliminate tillage; 2) never leave bare soil; 3) maximise plant diversity and productiv-
ity on a farm; 4) integrate livestock and cropping operations; and 5) reduce or elimi-
nate synthetic agrichemicals.  From an environmental perspective regenerative agri-
culture seeks to maximise farm ecosystem services through enhanced soil health, bet-
ter resource management, climate change mitigation, improved nutrient cycling and 
water quality and availability (Bock et al., 2020; Schreefel et al., 2020).  Regenerative 
agriculture also has a social aspect.  A certification ‘Regenerative Organic Certified’ has 
been developed by a non-profit organisation in the US for food / farms, textiles and 
personal care ingredients (Rodale Institute, n.d.).  This certification is based around 
three pillars: soil health (including no synthetic inputs); animal welfare; and, social fair-
ness, which focusses on addressing ‘fractured rural economies’ (Regenerative Organic 
Alliance, n.d.). 

Environment and climate pressures 
The last five decades of economic growth have ‘come at a massive cost to the global 
environment’ (European Commission, 2021a).  There is an increasing need to go be-
yond ‘sustaining a broken system’ and to focus instead on regenerating social, eco-
nomic and ecological systems (Sustain Europe, n.d.).  Unsustainable farming practices 
lead to pollution of soil, water, air and food, including being responsible for 90% of 
Europe’s ammonia emissions, as well as biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation 
(EEA, 2020).  The International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems state that 
the ‘mutual dependence of the planet’s health and our own is becoming startlingly 
clear’ (IPES-Food & ETC Group, 2021). 

Global and EU policy priorities 
2021 sees the start of the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration which aims to ‘pre-
vent, halt and reverse the degradation of ecosystems’ globally (UN, n.d.).  In agriculture 
the FAO is calling for  more holistic approaches to ensuring healthy ecosystems and 
food supply through the promotion of agroecological and other innovative approaches 
(FAO Committee on World Food Security, 2021). 

In Europe, emphasis in high-level policy frameworks such as the Circular Economy Ac-
tion Plan for a  more regenerative and restorative economy (European Commission, 
2020a) reflects perhaps an observation from the RESTORE research network (in 2018) 

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description 

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that a shift can be observed in the language of sustainability with terms such as ‘doing 
more good, net positive and restorative sustainability’ moving from the fringes increas-
ingly to the mainstream (Apró et al., 2018).  It seems likely COVID-19 will have acceler-
ated this shift.   

The Farm to Fork Strategy stresses that the food system needs to have ‘a neutral or 
positive environmental impact, preserving and restoring the land, freshwater and sea-
based resources’ (European Commission, 2020c).  Reducing pollution in the agriculture 
sector is also an important element of the Zero Pollution Action Plan, including a key 
2030 target to improve soil quality by reducing nutrient losses and chemical pesticides’ 
use by 50% (European Commission, 2021b).   

In April 2021 the Commission concluded consultation on the proposed new EU Soils 
Strategy  (European  Commission,  2021c),  which  recognises  the  key  link  between 
healthy soils and zero pollution and the role of unsustainable farming in the degrada-
tion of soil.  Improving the quality and performance of soil is the most common focus 
of regenerative agriculture approaches (EIT Food, 2020a) which could thus play a role 
in realising these twin objectives.  The EEA has recently reported that reducing pres-
sures through agroecological and sustainable farming practices is key to improving the 
status of Europe’s rivers, lakes, transitional, coastal waters and seas as well as ground-
water bodies (European Environment Agency., 2021); and in relation to air pollution 
the Commission considers there to be ‘large potential’ to reduce emissions from agri-
culture through the promotion of best practices (European Commission, n.d.). 

Increased interest in and knowledge of regenerative agricultural approaches 
There are clear signals that interest in regenerative approaches in the wider economy 
is growing and in the agriculture sector in particular (Giller et al., 2021;  Waterfield, 
2020).  In the last few years some leading international corporations in the food and 
agriculture sector have made commitments to becoming regenerative including Da-
none, General Mills, McDonalds (UK) and Unilever (EIT Food, 2020a; Farming UK, 2021; 
GreenBiz.com, 2020; Unilever, 2021; Walmart, 2020).  At the same time the JRC Farm-
ers of the Future report notes that, although detailed data on agroecological practices 
in Europe are not available, there are an increasing number of initiatives, networks and 
research in this field (Bock et al., 2020).  For example the EU funded European Institute 
of Innovation and Technology’s Food Initiative (EIT Food)  is supporting farmers and 
agrifood businesses to farm regeneratively as part of what they call the ‘Regenerative 
Agricultural Revolution’ (EIT Food, 2021).  EIT Food notes that as the need for sustain-
able food production grows, farmers are ‘taking an increasing interest in regenerative 
agriculture as a positive, adaptable approach to sustainable farming’ (EIT Food, 2020a).   

EIT Food highlights examples of regenerative agriculture already in practice, such as 
the ‘forest-gardens’ farm in Normandy, France (“La Ferme Biologique du Bec Hellouin,” 
n.d.).  Designed as a ‘mini-forest garden’ the farm has a multi-cropping approach, im-
proves soil nutrients and reduces the need for artificial fertilisers.  Although this exam-
ple is very small in scale (1.8 hectares), EIT Food refer to a study by the French National 
Institute for Agricultural Research which concluded that in terms of economic viability 
the farm ‘could easily be equivalent or superior to that obtained in a classic farm’ (this 
refers to employment and economic viability) (EIT Food, 2020b).  EIT Food also report 
on research that while yields may be smaller (but are not always), lower input costs 
and higher prices mean that (in addition to the environmental benefits) regenerative 
farming techniques can be more profitable and provide more employment than con-
ventional farming (EIT Food, 2020a; Fenster et al., 2021).  Earlier research (from 2015) 
concluded that increased crop diversity and reduced tilling increased yield stability for 
corn and soybean by improving resilience to environmental and climate stresses (e.g. 
heat, drought), and in fact increased yields in hot and dry years (Gaudin et al., 2015).  
It should be noted however that such research remains limited in location, scale and 
scope (e.g. of crops covered) and as such overall impacts on yields are uncertain (see 
uncertainties below). 

Other European case examples exist, such as Regenacterre in the Wallonia region of 
Belgium (Regenacterre.be, n.d.).  Regenacterre was initiated in 2016 as a non-profit 

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association of 15 farmers, with the goal of enabling farmers in the region to work to-
gether to regenerate the health of their soil while improving profitability (SystemIQ, 
2020).  By 2020 the association had 59 farmers as members and covered 4,500 hec-
tares, with a reported saving of ‘at least’ €50 per hectare in the first year of member-
ship (SystemIQ, 2020).  The same report notes that “the key to success … had been the 
consistent improvement in farm profitability throughout the transition” to regenera-
tive practices, driven mainly by cost savings for farmers (SystemIQ, 2020). 

Europe  is seeking  to  take  a more  systems-based  approach  to  environmental  policy, 
with a focus on transforming production and consumption systems, such as food (Eu-
ropean Environment Agency, 2019; European Environment Agency., 2017).  Regener-
ative agriculture can be seen as a system approach (Waterfield, 2020), and may there-
fore emerge as an increasingly important approach in realising Europe’s environmental 
and social ambitions.  Political support together with evidence that there can be op-
portunities for greater farm profitability and job creation may also make regenerative 
agriculture an increasingly attractive proposition for Europe’s farmers.  

More concretely, while limited outlook indicators exist for regenerative  farming, an 
international  non-profit  organisation  estimates  that,  in  relation  to  cropping  tech-
niques, globally regenerative approaches could be adopted on a total of between 221 
and 332 million hectares by 2050, compared to 11.84 million hectares in 2017 (Project 
Drawdown, 2020).  332 million hectares represents approximately 7% of the current 
global agricultural land area (based on FAO data, in 2019 total land agricultural land 
area globally was over 4,750 million hectares) (FAO, 2021).  While outlooks for land 
under regenerative agriculture are not available for Europe, the EU Agricultural Out-
look  2020-2030  indicates  that  the  share  of  organic  land  to  total  agricultural  land  in 
Europe rose from 5.5% in 2012 to 8% in 2018, and could increase to 12% by 2030, or 
more with ‘proactive policies and favourable market conditions’ (European Commis-
sion. Directorate General  for  Agriculture and Rural Development., 2020).   Based on 
these outlooks, it seems plausible that similar growth might be expected in regenera-
tive agriculture (noting there is some overlap between regenerative and organic farm-
ing techniques). 

The EU Agricultural Outlook report also predicts that while overall farm incomes are 
expected  to  grow  by  11%  over  the  period  2020-2030,  the  agricultural  labour  force 
could fall by approximately 1% per year, with more prominent declines in some coun-
tries, such as Bulgaria and Finland (both expected to see -4% annual change in agricul-
tural  employment  over  the  decade  2020-2030)  (European  Commission.  Directorate 
General for Agriculture and Rural Development., 2020).  While the EU Agricultural Out-
look does not discuss the influence different agricultural approaches (e.g. regenera-
tive, organic) could have on these outlooks, as noted, some evidence is emerging that 
regenerative farming techniques can be more profitable and provide more employ-
ment  than  conventional  farming  (due  to  less  mechanisation,  lower  input  costs  and 
higher prices) (EIT Food, 2020a; SystemIQ, 2020).  It may be the case therefore that in 
some  countries  or  regions,  regenerative  farming  is  increasingly  seen  as  a  potential 
means of improving farm incomes and providing local employment alongside meeting 
environmental objectives. 

‘Farmers of the future’, a recent outlook study led by the JRC and DG AGRI, considered 
the importance and role agriculture could play in the transformation of the European 
economy and society towards and long-term sustainable future (Bock et al., 2020).  The 
final report of this study describes ‘the 2040 landscape of farmers’ and presents policy 
implications.  The study anticipates that consumers in 2040 will be more demanding 
and conscious, with health, environmental and ethical considerations gaining in im-
portance.  The report expects there to be a ‘more diverse ecosystem of farms’ in 2040.  
Although  current  mainstream  farming  is  expected  to  adapt  and  remain  part  of  this 
landscape,  12  future  farmer  profiles  were  developed  (including  through  input  from 
farmers as stakeholders) to reflect ‘existing and emerging realities in European agricul-
ture’.  One of these 12 profiles is the ‘regenerative farmer’, and a key development 
seen across the profiles is a shift to more environmentally sustainable forms of farm-

February 2022  64 

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issue  develop  in 
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ing.  The study anticipates that each of the future farmer profiles will be ‘well estab-
lished’ by 2040.  More broadly the study concludes that agroecological practices could 
become mainstream by 2040, alongside alternative methods such as cell farming (see 
Issue 6 which explores the emergence of cellular agriculture).  

Considering the available evidence, although some researchers predict it, a genuine 
‘revolution’ in agriculture in Europe that sees regenerative techniques completely re-
place conventional farming seems unlikely.  However, the evidence base relating to 
the benefits of and growing interest in regenerative approaches, including European 
research and practice networks, high-level policy that supports such approaches and 
the  adoption  of  guidance  and  principles  for  regenerative  agriculture  by  significant 
‘players’ in the food system, such as Danone, General Mills and Unilever, suggests that 
it  is  quite  plausible  in  the  coming  decade  for  the  integration  of  regenerative  ap-
proaches within agriculture to move from niche to mainstream practice. 

If regenerative agriculture becomes more mainstream this could have an influence on 
yields.  Some research has found reduced yields (e.g. of corn), although the impact on 
yields appears to vary depending on the crop and local conditions.  Some studies have 
found similar or even increased yields compared to conventional farming as well as 
improved yield stability and resilience (EIT Food, 2020a; Fenster et al., 2021; Gaudin et 
al., 2015).  In a more utopian view a regenerative system emerges that ‘could both 
better redistribute food while keeping up, or even outpacing, the production of ‘con-
ventional’/industrial farms’ (Dale et al., 2021).  If yields per hectare do fall however, 
this could lead to future pressure to increase the area of cultivated land. 

From an environmental perspective the wider adoption of agriculture aligned with re-
generative principles could lead to: a reduction in the area of soil that is exposed / left 
uncovered; a reduction in mono-culture and intensive cropping and livestock raising 
practices, with crop-rotation, integrated livestock and cropping, and increased plant 
diversity being seen more widely; and, a reduction in the use of synthetic agrichemicals 
(fertilisers, pesticides and herbicides).  For example, recent research has found that 
regenerative techniques (in the case of corn and almond crops) have similar pest sup-
pression results as conventional farming, without the use of pesticides (Fenster et al., 
2021). 

Some form of accreditation or certification of regenerative agriculture (similar to EU 
organic certification) could provide farmers and consumers with greater certainty and 
help increase uptake of regenerative practices.  A campaigning organisation in the US 
has developed such a certification ‘Regenerative Organic Certified’ (Rodale Institute, 
n.d.), and similar could emerge in Europe, perhaps even developed by the Commission 
(although there is no evidence that certification beyond organic is being considered at 
present).  Without such accreditation or certification there is a risk of the term being 
used unscrupulously for commercial gain (akin to greenwashing), which could under-
mine genuine attempts to improve the sustainability of the food system (Newton et 
al., 2020).   

Potential  implications 
for  the  EU’s  ability  to 
deliver  a  zero-pollu-
tion ambition 

Reduction  (or  phasing 
out)  of  monoculture 
crop farming  

Opportunities 
(for  our  ability  to  deliver  a  zero-
pollution ambition) 

Risks 
(to  our  ability  to  deliver  a  zero-pollution 
ambition) 

Reduction  in  ammonia  emissions 
from  reduced  chemical  fertiliser 
use  (see  separate  implication  be-
low). 

Yields for some crops may fall, which could 
lead to pressure for more land to be used 
for  cultivation.    This  could  increase  pollu-
tion loads overall and have risks for wider 
biodiversity and ecosystems, with a risk of 
reduced  pollution  mitigation  /  sequestra-
tion in areas where this occurs. 

Potential  for  increased  use  of  herbicides 
where  farmers  seek  to  manage  ‘unwel-
come’ plants that thrive due to less inten-
sive practices (EIT Food, 2020a). 

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Healthier  ecosystems 
and increased on farm 
biodiversity  due  to  in-
creased  plant  diver-
sity,  reduced  tillage 
and soil cover 

Improved ability of on farm ecosys-
tems  to  provide  pollution  mitiga-
tion (air and water) 

As  noted,  yields  may  fall  for  some  crops, 
which could lead to the expansion of culti-
vated areas, which would potentially harm 
ecosystems  and  biodiversity  on  effected 
land. 

Reduction in the use of 
fertilisers 
chemical 
and pesticides / herbi-
cides   

Reduced  water  pollution  (Ranga-
nathan  et  al.,  2020),  including  ni-
trogen run-off and chemical pollu-
tion of surface and groundwater. 

Reduced costs of water treatment. 

Reduced  air  pollution,  especially 
ammonia from volatilisation of fer-
tilisers. 

Reduction of intensive 
livestock 
for 
meat and dairy 

raising 

Reduction  in  run-off  and  associ-
ated  pollution  of  water  (surface, 
ground, coastal). 

Reduced demand for crops used as 
feed,  with  further  positive  feed-
back  for  reduced  agri-chemical 
use. 

Reduced  risk  of  veterinary  antibi-
otics entering groundwater water / 
food chain (Kivits et al., 2018). 

livestock  – 
Healthier 
reducing 
potentially 
need for use of antibi-
otics and other veteri-
nary medicine 

Improved soil health / 
microbiome on farms 

Improved  nutrient  cycling,  reduc-
ing run-off and need for fertilisers 

Improved  water  infil-
tration  and  retention 
in  soil  due  to  changes 
in  planting  patterns 
(EIT Food, 2020a) 

Reduced  run-off  and  erosion  of 
soil.  

Lower  abstraction  needs, 
im-
proved  water  quality  in  rivers  / 
streams (due to higher flows). 

longer  term  en-
In 
hanced  ability  of  soils 
to  sequester  carbon 
(Fenster et al., 2021) 

if 

Longer-term positive feedbacks for 
pollution 
regenerative  ap-
proaches  help  mitigate  climate 
change.  For example, reducing the 
likelihood  of  climate  change  re-
lated weather patterns that can al-
ter the transport, dispersion, dep-
osition and formation of air pollu-
tants  in  the  atmosphere.    Higher 
temperatures  are  also  associated 
with  increased  ozone  formation 
(European  Environment  Agency, 
2020). 

If production is to remain at current (or in-
creased)  levels,  greenhouse  gas  emissions 
per kg of meat and dairy products may in-
crease  (based  on  analysis  by  OECD  that 
shows  more  intensive  techniques  reduce 
per kg emissions) (OECD, 2020).    

Carbon capture will also depend on the rel-
ative share of farmland.  If, due to smaller 
yields, regenerative approaches lead to the 
expansion of cultivation, the net effect may 
be small or even negative. 

Timeframe 
emergence  

of 

Regenerative agriculture / farming as a concept is already practiced, however this re-
mains at a small scale and is often farm specific.  Its widespread adoption, should this 
occur, would require large-scale transformation of the European food system and ag-
ricultural practices and would only be expected in the long-term.   

EIT Food note that regenerative farming ‘has some way to go yet’ before it can offer 
an alternative to current conventional, large-scale agriculture (EIT Food, 2020a).  

Uncertainties 

While a small number of studies have explored this issue (and shown the yields are not 
necessarily reduced), the wider implications of regenerative approaches on yields is 

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Additional 
re-
search  or  evi-
dence  that  may 
be needed 

uncertain.  This in turn means that the effect of a widespread move to regenerative on 
the total extent of cultivated land is also uncertain, as it may be increased to offset 
declining yields where experienced. 

It is also uncertain whether consumers will find regenerative agricultural products ap-
pealing, especially if these have a higher price and may be confused with existing prod-
ucts, especially organic.  It is possible that a shift to regenerative approaches in Europe 
could lead to a shift to greater imports from non-EU countries with intensive produc-
tion, similar to the shift in industrial production and pollution to Asia. 

Some researchers, while not disagreeing fundamentally with the principles of regen-
erative agriculture, have expressed some scepticism and called for caution in the ex-
tent  of  the  benefits  that  are  possible,  particularly  in  relation  to  environmental  im-
provements  (Giller  et  al.,  2021;  McGuire,  2018).    Writing  in  2021,  Giller  et  al.,  con-
cluded that ‘it seems unlikely that Regenerative Agriculture can deliver all of the posi-
tive environmental benefits as well as the increase in global food production that is 
required’. 

This in part relates to the use of a very broad term (regenerative agriculture) under 
which a large range of practices applied in varied contexts are considered (Giller et al., 
2021).  A recent review of the term in research and practice concluded that there is a 
need for users of the term to ‘define it comprehensively for their own purpose and 
context’ (Newton et al., 2020) (see also research needs). 

Some researchers have expressed concern that the recent enthusiasm for regenerative 
agriculture  often  promotes  approaches  ‘with  little  regard  to  context’  (Giller  et  al., 
2021).  In addition given while common themes can be found, the current lack of clear 
criteria  or  accreditation  for  regenerative  agriculture  means  that  at present  conven-
tional farms could claim to operate ‘regeneratively’ based on the adoption of minimal 
practices (ARC2020, 2019).  There is thus a need for research to  
•  Better define and understand the role and value of regenerative agricultural prac-

tices in particular contexts and types of agriculture. 

•  Understand and develop regenerative techniques, including mechanisms for their 

adoption and scaling. 

As noted above under the future development, implications and uncertainties there is 
a need to better understand how regenerative approaches would influence yields in a 
range of contexts, types of farm and for different crops.  While a small number of stud-
ies have explored this issue (and shown the yields are not necessarily reduced), addi-
tional research into this is needed.  This would in turn help better understand the pos-
sible risk that regenerative agriculture could lead to an increase in the area of culti-
vated land (to maintain food supplies). 

If adopted on a wider scale,  regenerative approaches would lead to and/or require 
important changes to the farming system.  For example, more diverse crop rotations 
may require new input supply models and arrangements for sale (off-take) of produce, 
while regenerative practices may also mean new mechanical equipment is needed, for 
example tillers, seed drillers and mechanical weeding (SystemIQ, 2020).  A better un-
derstanding of these changing needs and their costs for farmers would be needed for 
regenerative agriculture to become more widespread. 

A shift to regenerative agriculture and the associated changes in the food and farming 
system could also have risks for human health and food safety.  Based on the evidence 
reviewed for this emerging issue the health and food safety implications of regenera-
tive approaches are not yet researched but could be considered together with envi-
ronmental and social implications, in order to better understand trade-offs and syner-
gies. 

For regenerative agriculture to develop as a meaningful approach that is recognised 
by the industry and consumers, some form of certification may also be needed (EIT 
Food, 2020a).  

Related  to  certification,  research  into  how  regenerative  agriculture  could  be  moni-
tored and assessed is needed.  There are currently no indicators that enable a generic 
assessment of regenerative agriculture, and as such there is a need for new indicators 

February 2022  67 

 
 
 
 
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and benchmarks in this area (Schreefel et al., 2020). 

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Econ.  Found.  URL  https://neweconomics.org/2021/02/the-future-of-farming-is-
agroecological (accessed 6.11.21). 

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Issue 5: Will new ways of pollution information provision influence behaviours towards low 
pollution lifestyles that go beyond current trends to low/zero waste? 

Emerging 
is-
sue  descrip-
tion 

New technologies and tools are creating or facilitating new possibilities for environmental 
monitoring and analysis.  This is leading to increasing interest in environmental monitor-
ing by individual citizens and the continuation of a trend to increased citizen science pro-
jects  engaging  communities  to  improve  environmental  monitoring  data  (EEA,  2019a; 
Doraiswamy, 2019; Descant, 2020; McFadden, 2020).  For example, an increasing number 
of simple and affordable air quality samplers and sensor monitoring devices are already 
available on the market (EEA, 2019a).  

The World Health Organization (WHO) states that air pollution is the single largest envi-
ronmental health risk globally (UN WHO, 2014 cited by Delmas & Kohli, 2020) and poor 
air  quality  causes an  estimated  400  000  premature  deaths  in  Europe  every  year  (EEA, 
2019b).  While tools also exist for other types of pollution (e.g.  water, through EU re-
search projects such as MONOCLE 28), the type of pollution for which information is cur-
rently  most  readily  available  to  individuals  is  air  pollution.  Hundreds  of  air  quality 
smartphone / internet applications (apps) are now available that provide real-time local-
ised air quality information (Delmas & Kohli, 2020), often collected and distributed com-
mercially.  For example, a private company, BreezoMeter, provide global level data to 
numerous apps, including the Yahoo weather app, on location-based air pollution, pollen 
and active fires (BreezoMeter, n.d.).  However, official monitoring stations only provide 
consolidated or average data for the outdoor environment for areas that have monitors, 
and no corresponding indoor data.  Portable air quality (or other pollution) monitoring 
devices embedded in smartphones or wearable devices (e.g. smart watches) could pro-
vide personalised real-time information for tracking the immediate environment and fluc-
tuations in air pollution, for example (Hermann & Fix, 2020).  Monitoring personal expo-
sure to environmental pollutants (e.g. air pollution) with smartphones or wearable de-
vices could provide users with reliable and transparent information.  This in turn could 
enable or encourage individuals to take action or change behaviours so as to minimise 
their exposure, which could help improve health and well-being. 

There is often an optimistic expectation that better access to data about pollution levels, 
or the ability to personally monitor pollution exposure, could lead to individuals changing 
their behaviours to prevent health risks or to reduce pollution generating activities. Such 
changes to behaviour could reduce or eradicate personal pollution contributions, or put 
pressure on producers to reduce the use of/use substitutes for polluting materials and 
toxic substances.  Evidence shows that this can be the case in certain situations, for ex-
ample a study of residents in Galveston Bay, Texas, US, shows that frequent use of water 
quality information was associated with action to reduce the risks associated with poor 
water quality (Ross et al, 2020). In this study, individuals who checked water pollution 
monitoring every day were found to be more likely to change their outdoor activities and 
consumption behaviour than someone who is not aware of this information (ibid).  There 
is also some evidence (in this case from a study in India) that better access to air quality 
data may encourage communities to take joint action to pressure governments for better 
policies and programmes to address the issue (Das, 2020).  Localised air pollution data 
has also been shown to make residents more willing to conduct pro-environmental be-
haviours in a study of Chinese residents (Sheng et al, 2020). However, it is also well doc-
umented within behavioural psychology literature that knowledge alone is not sufficient 
to drive behaviour change and the context in which information is received is also key 
(i.e. the COM-B model (Mitchie et al, 2011). For example, one study found that intrinsic 
(e.g. health consciousness) and extrinsic motivations (e.g. digital notifications) were re-
sponsible for the level of user engagement with pollution monitoring apps and the likeli-
hood  of  users  in  turn  adopting  protective  behaviours  as  a  response  (Delmas  &  Kohli, 
2020). 

Key  drivers: 

Covid-19 focussing attention on health and well-being 
The Covid-19 pandemic has led to an increase in attention to personal health and well-

28 https://monocle-h2020.eu/Citizen_science 

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what  is  driv-
ing  the  emer-
gence  of  this 
issue? 

How  might 
the  issue  de-
velop 
in  fu-
ture? 

being.  It has led to increased awareness of health risks and impacts associated with a 
poor-quality physical and natural environment, including from pollution.  In the specific 
context of air pollution, attention has also been given to links between respiratory health 
and air pollution, due to the association between air quality and Covid-19 outcomes in 
individuals and communities.  Through this people may have become more aware of ex-
ternal environmental risks and risk monitoring. 

Technological advances in pollution monitoring and data 
The emergence of increasingly intelligent and interconnected wearable technology de-
vices (e.g. smart watches) is driving a trend of personal tracking of detailed aspects of 
individuals’ bodies, habits and lives.  There is an increasing emergence of technology de-
vices that encourage individuals to track aspects of their lives to ‘better’ themselves and 
their  lifestyles,  for  example  step-counting  functions,  calorie-tracking  apps,  recording 
mindfulness  (Tan,  2020).  However,  the  over-use  of  such apps has  also  been  shown  to 
have negative psychological impacts in some individuals, such as increased health anxiety 
(Ducharme, 2019).  

Currently, emerging technology and tools for monitoring pollution are predominantly fo-
cused on air pollution over other types of pollution.  There are an increasing number of 
simple, relatively cheap air quality samplers and sensor monitoring devices available on 
the market (EEA, 2019a).  Hundreds of apps already exist for monitoring localised air qual-
ity – e.g. IQAir provides real-time air quality data on its website and app (Ehrenkranz, 
2020).  For example, it is now possible to integrate PM2.5 sensing into mobile devices for 
measuring a person’s daily exposure (Hermann & Fix, 2020).  At the same time the wide-
spread use of covid-19 monitoring apps demonstrates the future potential of app-based 
risk monitoring and portable sensor devices to expand to include monitoring of ‘external-
ities’ alongside internal bodily functions and habits (Tan, 2020). 

Increased awareness of pollution  
Increased access to and engagement with environmental monitoring data and in particu-
lar, pollution data, may be acting to increase awareness among citizens and communities 
of pollution that affects them.  This can also act as a feedback loop: for example, as aware-
ness increases, people are more interested in the quality of the air that they breathe, 
which has led to increasing numbers of people taking initiative to measure level of pollu-
tants in air themselves (EEA, 2019a). 

There is a high demand for technology and tools for monitoring air pollution; the global 
air quality monitoring system market is projected to reach USD 6.0 billion (EURO 5.1 bil-
lion) by 2025 from USD 4.3 billion (EURO 3.5 billion) in 2019, at an annual growth rate of 
5.6% (Research and Markets, 2020).  There are formal systems in place for monitoring air 
pollution across Europe (e.g. European Air Quality Index) that provide readily available 
real-time information to citizens (EEA, 2021), and hundreds of available smartphone apps 
that provide information on localised air quality monitoring (Ehrenkranz, 2020).  As de-
mand increases, similar systems could be developed in future to monitor other types of 
pollution such as environmental noise, industrial pollution, water and soil quality, and 
vehicle exhaust emissions (European Commission, 2020).  For example, there is recently 
emerging and promising technologies for obtaining information on human and environ-
mental exposure to contaminants. Specifically, the a technique called wastewater-based 
epidemiology  (EMCDDA,  2021)  that  collects  information  from  chemical  analysis  of 
wastewater samples or from sensors installed in sewer systems. In this way exposure of 
the human population to e.g., household chemicals, pesticides, viruses (including coro-
navirus),  anti-biotic  resistance  etc.  can  be  monitored  using  biomarkers  present  in  the 
wastewater (European Commission SCHEER, 2021). 

As noted at present the predominant focus for personal and localised pollution appears 
to be on air pollution.  While no research-based discussion was found on this topic, it is 
possible that air pollution is by its nature more relevant to individuals (particularly in ur-
ban areas) as it is something that effects everyone, relates directly to personal behaviours 
(e.g. driving) and is already monitored and reported on locally.   

Smartphone apps are a potentially valuable resource for driving change; a number of apps 
already  exist  that  help  individuals  adopt  pro-environmental  behaviours  (e.g.  Better 

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Points29) (Mitchell, 2020; Capterra, n.d.).  The widespread use of government created or 
commissioned Covid-19 apps (e.g. for track-and-trace) demonstrates the future potential 
of app-based risk monitoring and portable sensor devices to expand to include monitor-
ing of ‘externalities’ alongside internal bodily functions and habits (Tan, 2020).  In this 
case the risk is exposure to the Covid-19 virus, but the authors of this study conclude that 
same idea could be applied to other externalities, e.g. pollution, which also have individ-
ual  and  society-wide  impacts,  however  less  clear  personal  responses  associated  with 
them (ibid).  

In 2020 the number of global smartphone users was 3.6 billion, marking a 5.9% annual 
increase (Oberlo, 2021).  This is over three times the number of smartphone users there 
were in 2012 (ibid).  Reports estimate that the number of global smartphone users will 
continue to increase and hit 4.3 billion by 2023 (ibid).  Data from the UK indicate similar 
growth in the number of smart devices per person, which increased from 3.8 in 2015 to 
6.2 in 2020 (Deloitte, 2020), it seems plausible similar growth is seen in other European 
countries.  The same survey found that only 30% of respondents owned a fitness band or 
smart watch (Deloitte, 2020), however, one industry projection is that the global technol-
ogy wearables market is set to experience a 12% annual growth rate across the next five 
years (Paratus People, 2021).  Much of the market intelligence and projections in this area 
are generated by business with an interest in the growth of these markets, so some cau-
tion is needed in interpretation.  However, a high rate of growth in smart and wearable 
technology does seem plausible in the coming years.  

The emergence of increasingly intelligent and interconnected wearable technology de-
vices is driving a trend of personal tracking of detailed aspects of individuals’ bodies, hab-
its and lives.  An example are fitness and sport tracking applications such as Strava30, using 
data from individual’s heart monitors, wearable activity monitoring devices (e.g. smart 
watches) and personal GPS (e.g. through smart-phones or bike computers).  As such de-
vices and associated applications become more popular, they may become a tool for not 
only providing information on pollution exposure, but for also measuring individual envi-
ronmental impacts, including contribution to pollution - although this will be more possi-
ble for some forms of pollution than others (see uncertainties).  Apps (e.g. CoGo31, Cap-
ture32) are already emerging that allow users to track real-time personalised breakdowns 
of their carbon footprint, comparing results to the country average, and providing infor-
mation on ways to reduce their score and offset emissions (Bearne, 2021).  Similar apps 
also exist for plastic pollution (e.g. My Little Plastic Footprint33).  The popularity of such 
apps  is  already  growing,  and  similar  concepts  could  become  a  mainstream  feature  of 
health and lifestyle tracking. 

As well as measuring personal contributions to pollution, another potential development 
is the emergence of apps/monitoring devices that track/register pollution from produc-
ers/industry.  For example, an app currently in development at the Norwegian University 
of  Science  and  Technology  (NTNU)  determines  where  shoreline  plastic  rubbish  comes 
from (Lane, 2021).  Users will be able to take a photo of any plastic waste they find and 
enter its GPS coordinates.  A visual database will then be accessible in the app, that will 
identify what the object is.  The app also takes into consideration factors such as prevail-
ing currents, tides and weather patterns, so it will be able to determine the approximate 
oceanic route of the item that led it to end up where it did (ibid). The EEA has also devel-
oped a tool called Marine LitterWatch34, a citizen science based tool that can help fill data 
gaps relevant for policy, while raising awareness about the problem of litter and the policy 
response to it. 

29 https://www.betterpoints.ltd/app/  
30 https://www.strava.com/  
31 https://cogo.co/  
32 https://www.thecapture.club/  
33 https://mylittleplasticfootprint.org/  
34 https://marinelitterwatch.discomap.eea.europa.eu/Index.html  

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Citizen science projects are also a potentially powerful tool for public engagement, com-
plementing official data, raising awareness of environmental issues and policies (Euro-
pean Commission, 2020).  Citizen science is not new, however with digital technologies 
and social media, it is increasingly easy for citizens to connect, join initiatives and com-
municate their results (EEA, 2019a).  If growing numbers of individuals use smart devices 
that trace and register environmental pollutants, such data could be collected by a central 
unit to monitor pollutants (including cross-border). An example of a similar system, yet 
not focused on pollution, is the Zoe Covid app35.  
However, the use of personal monitoring/tracking devices to monitor information on pol-
lution, particularly with the goal of contributing to a central system, raises questions of 
data  privacy,  specifically  information  and  location  privacy  (Papathanasopoulos  et  al, 
2021).  Some people may be opposed to data being collected by, for example, govern-
ments/policy makers. Issues around data ownership could also see users being labelled 
as  ‘sustainability  minded’  and  their  data  being  then  sold  to  companies  selling  ‘green’ 
products.  Covid-19  may  catalyse  the  deployment  of  more  types  of  data  gathering,  for 
example there are suggestions of individuals having to wear fitness bands to work to pro-
vide an early alert of covid-19 infections whilst still asymptomatic (Deloitte, 2020).  As 
countries  continue  to  coexist  with  covid-19,  people’s  perceptions  of  data  privacy  and 
what data they are willing to share may change as citizens may become inclined to share 
greater amounts of personal data for the opportunity to resume or maintain some level 
of normality, e.g. with regard to large social gatherings or foreign travel (ibid).  

implica-

Potential 
tions 
for the EU’s ability to 
deliver  a  zero-pollu-
tion ambition 

Accessing  /  generat-
ing  personalised  air 
quality  data  could 
potentially 
change 
how  people  assess 
the quality of the air 
around 
them  and 
how  they  respond 
accordingly 
(Her-
mann & Fix, 2020).  

collected 
Data 
through 
personal 
pollution  monitoring 
devices/mobile 
smart  devices  can 
complement  official 
data to inform policy 
decisions. 

Opportunities 
(for our ability to deliver a zero-pollu-
tion ambition) 

Risks 
(to our ability to deliver a zero-pollution 
ambition) 

Individuals may be able to better plan 
when  to  be  outdoors  to  adapt  com-
muting and sports activities (Hermann 
& Fix, 2020).  On a broader scale, this 
information  could 
inform  decisions 
such as deciding where to live when re-
locating  to  a  new  area  or  deciding 
where to go on holiday (ibid).  

Increases availability of pollution data, 
particularly  in  rural  areas/areas  not 
currently  covered  by  official  monitor-
ing  systems,  therefore  providing  a 
more comprehensive picture of pollu-
tion levels across Europe.  

Individuals may be uncomfortable being 
made  aware  of  the  high  pollution  level 
they are regularly exposed to. Especially 
when alternative behavioural responses 
that  might  minimise  personal  pollution 
exposure are not possible or easily iden-
tifiable  (Tan,  2020).  This  could  increase 
health anxiety in some individuals, an is-
sue  already  associated  with  health  and 
(Ducharme, 
fitness  monitoring  apps 
2019). 

The  quality  of  information  from  simpler 
sensors for personal use will often not be 
comparable to official air quality monitor-
ing data as gathered by local, national or 
European  authorities  and  agencies  (such 
as data collated and reported by the EEA). 
This risks the creation of ‘fake news’ and 
can  cause  problems  in  credibility  and  a 
decreased  public  trust  in  science  which 
would  need  to  be  countered.  However, 
artificial  intelligence  can  help  mitigate 
this.  

Access  to  technical 
data on air pollution 
raise 
can 
levels 
awareness 
around 
standards  related  to 
air quality levels (e.g. 

This  could  help  empower  individuals 
and  communities  to  put  pressure  on 
local governments and those in power 
to  take  action  on  unacceptable  pollu-
tion levels (Das, 2020).  

35 https://covid.joinzoe.com/  

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WHO 
air 
guidelines) 
2020).  

quality 
(Das, 

engage-
Individual 
ment  with  the  envi-
ronment 
through 
risk-monitoring tech-
nologies  emphasises 
a  belonging 
to  a 
shared  environment 
and  the  connection 
personal 
between 
responsibility 
and 
collective  accounta-
bility (Tan, 2020; Tan 
& Smith, 2020).  

to 

Individuals  with  ac-
a 
cess 
smartphone/other 
smart  device  can  be 
better 
informed  of 
pollution levels. 

Citizen  science  pro-
jects,  such  as  Earth 
Challenge  2020,  can 
raise  awareness  of 
pollution (in this case 
plastic pollution) and 
also  contribute 
to 
baseline data of how 
much  (plastic)  pollu-
tion  is  currently  out 
in  the  world-  data 
that is currently lack-
ing (Kikken, 2020) 

This could encourage individuals to al-
ter behaviour to reduce their personal 
exposure to pollutants or act to reduce 
wider societal exposure/levels of local 
pollution.  

The  more  people  using  the  app,  the 
more  information  is  collected  about 
the types of rubbish ending up in the 
environment and what needs more at-
tention to generate solutions to tackle 
plastic  pollution  (Kikken,  2020).  This 
can  therefore  inform  future  research 
projects. 

Places  impetus  on  individual  users  to 
find ways to reduce their air pollution. It 
is important to consider the extent that 
individuals are not only willing but able 
to  reduce  pollution  exposure  (Tan, 
2020).  Benefits  to  the  environment 
would only be delivered if increased in-
telligence about pollution resulted in ac-
tion to reduce it. Without external sup-
port  infrastructure  necessary  to  make 
new data actionable and meaningful, in-
dividuals  may  be  hindered  in  their  ef-
forts to contribute to zero pollution am-
bition.  As  outlined  in  the  uncertainties 
section,  the  COM-B  behaviour  change 
model states that capability, opportunity 
and motivation are required together to 
facilitate  behaviour  change  (Mitchie  et 
al, 2011).  

Risk of a ‘digital divide’, where the bene-
fits of technology are not spread equally 
throughout the population. People with-
out computers, smart phones or broad-
band internet are limited in their ability 
to use virtual services (Accenture, 2020). 
This could lead to inequalities in access 
to pollution data and further exacerbate 
already  existing  inequalities  in  environ-
mental  exposure.  For  example,  disad-
vantaged communities are often already 
exposed  to  higher  levels  of  pollution 
(EEA, 2018; EEA, 2019c). 

There is a risk that without proper data 
protection  in  place,  the  collected  data 
could be misused, potentially leading to 
security risks for individuals and under-
infor-
mining  trust 
mation, including from official sources.  

in  environmental 

Timeframe  of 
emergence  

The availability of technologies and their use is already seen in relation to air and water 
pollution.  Given the level of current interest and development, in relation to air pollution 
this issue may be expected to continue to emerge in the short-term (and to a lesser extent 
for water pollution).  For other forms of pollution, such as chemicals exposure, plastic 
pollution or noise, widespread use of new forms of information and monitoring seems 
more likely in the medium- or long-term. 

Uncertainties 

The COM-B model of behaviour change outlines the need for capability, opportunity and 
motivation all together to facilitate behaviour change (Mitchie et al, 2011). Therefore, 

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individual perceptions and knowledge about pollution is a necessary, but not sufficient, 
component to any behavioural change (Fiedling and Head 2011; Levine and Strube 2012 
both cited by Maione et al, 2021).  Uncertainties exist around what behavioural response 
will result from engagement with new sets of data from apps/monitoring devices (Tan, 
2020).  For example, will individuals become more risk-averse or tend towards risk miti-
gation? Or both? And at what scale will environmental issues like urban pollution be un-
derstood? There are uncertainties around whether individuals will alter behaviour to re-
duce their personal exposure to pollutants or act to reduce wider societal exposure/levels 
of urban pollution. It would be much easier, for example, for individuals to reduce their 
own contributions towards plastic pollution than air pollution. Poor air quality is also often 
found in areas of deprivation, i.e. communities that suffer from the air pollution are not the 
ones who are most responsible for its generation.  Therefore, whereas information provision 
for some types of pollution may be given with the goal to help individuals change behav-
iours to reduce pollution levels (e.g. plastic litter), information provision of other pollution 
types (e.g. air pollution) may be given with the goal to help individuals avoid the pollution. 
This issue also raises questions of responsibility: is it fair to shift responsibility to individ-
ual citizens?  Such questions may need to be increasingly explored by policy makers in 
future if the use of personal pollution monitoring devices becomes commonplace.   

As noted, much of the evidence reviewed has been generated and reported by private 
companies, many with a vested interest in the uptake and use of personal monitoring 
technologies and devices.  The technologies in small, personal sensors are also often of 
lower quality and may be less accurate than those in official monitoring systems.  There 
are therefore uncertainties around the accuracy of low-cost personal pollution monitor-
ing devices, and the implications of their use.  

There appear to be a large number of devices and applications related to air pollution.  It 
is uncertain however whether similar technology can or will be developed for other types 
of pollution and how that would work e.g. chemicals, noise, water.  Furthermore, it is 
uncertain whether the same behaviour change mechanisms would be in play for other 
types of pollution such as soil pollution or chemical pollution.  The link between air pol-
lution and personal health risks are clearly supported by evidence, equally there are be-
haviour change actions that people can be advised to take to reduce their exposure to air 
pollution (e.g. closing windows etc) (i.e. opportunity), compared to, for example, soil pol-
lution, where the individual mitigation actions may be much less clear.   

The uptake of citizen science by individuals largely depends on levels of interest/curiosity 
on the subject of the research. A review of the current state of marine citizen science in 
Europe found that only 17% of the projects in the North Sea deal with pollution, such as 
marine litter or the effect of oil spills on birds (Garcia-Soto et al, 2021). 

For  effective  behaviour  change  to  take  place,  individuals/consumers  need  to  be  given 
more information than simply what pollution levels are.  By providing individuals with the 
problems without informing them on what effective actions they can take to reduce their 
risk or reduce their personal contribution to pollution, the potential opportunities asso-
ciated with pollution monitoring apps or personal pollution monitors cannot be realised.  
At the same time for some forms of pollution, such as micro-plastics, scientific consensus 
or proof may be not yet exist for a direct link to health issues, and further research would 
be needed to establish correlations between exposure and health. 

More research is needed into what individual/consumer level behaviours are most effec-
tive at reducing pollution to better inform concerned individuals.  For example, recent 
research has been done into what are effective consumer-based actions to reduce plastic 
pollution (Marazzi et al, 2020). Additional data, particularly rich qualitative data such as 
from interviews and focus groups, could also help explore how perceptions of risk are 
associated with acute pollution exposure events and, in turn, affect the inclination to take 
different  actions  to  reduce  risk  (Ross  et  al,  2020).  Given  time  and  effort  commitment 
made by citizen scientists for the benefit of research, there is a need for further research 
to ensure both researchers and communities are benefitting (Walker et al, 2020) 

Additional re-
search  or  evi-
that 
dence 
may 
be 
needed 

References 

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Issue 6:  Low pollution food: will new, less polluting, methods of producing protein, fats and 
tissues emerge to replace traditional agriculture? 

Cellular agriculture is an emerging field in which the production of animal-sourced prod-
ucts (proteins, fats and tissues) is based on cell culture, rather than conventional agricul-
ture (Rischer et al., 2020). Practically this means that a set of innovative technologies in 
interdisciplinary fields (Swartz, 2019), such as cell biology, bioengineering and chemical 
engineering are able to provide an alternative to raising animals or growing crops for pro-
ducing agricultural products and food (Krueger, 2020; Rischer et al., 2020). Cellular agri-
culture could also be used to replace fisheries and aquaculture products such as seafood. 

Cellular agriculture can be divided in two forms: tissue-engineering based cellular agricul-
ture and fermentation-based cellular agriculture (Stephens and Ellis, 2020). In addition, 
two types of agricultural product are derived from cell culture: cellular and acellular (Ste-
phens et al., 2018). While cellular products are made of cells (living or previously living), 
acellular products consist of organic molecules such as proteins and fats but do not con-
tain cellular or living material in the final product. Cellular products include, for example, 
meat, seafood and leather, whereas milk is an acellular product. To produce milk the pro-
cess of fermentation is followed. In this case, micro-organisms such as yeast and bacteria 
are used (Mendly-Zambo et al., 2021). On the other hand, to produce meat, cellular agri-
culture starts with the tissue of a certain species (Stephens et al., 2018): in this procedure, 
stem cells along with tissue extracted via muscle biopsy are assembled on an edible scaf-
fold  with  serum  and  put  in  a  bioreactor  under  conditions that  promotes  growth  (EEA, 
2021 O’Neill et al.,  2020). The use of a scaffold enables a meat-like texture (Jung Lee, 
2020). 
Cellular meat, also known as in vitro, artificial or cultured meat, was first introduced as a 
term in the early 2000s and, in 2013, the first burger patty grown directly from cells was 
introduced to the public (EEA, 2021). Since then, the rapid development of the technology 
has led to the production of cellular meat which is considered by some to approach the 
taste and texture of traditionally produced meat, much more so than other meat alter-
natives such as plant-based products (Jung Lee, 2020).  

In the same vein, the production of milk and dairy products based on cellular agriculture 
including fermentation, although less widely known than meat, is considered in compar-
ison to be an easier procedure that can create products equivalent or close to conven-
tional milk and dairy products (Mendly-Zambo et al., 2021).  

For the production of cellular seafood, cellular aquaculture is used. As with cellular agri-
culture, the procedure requires initial cells from the tissue of interest, a growth media to 
provide nutrients and development, a biocompatible scaffold, and a bioreactor to provide 
the space for growth and maturation (Rubio et al., 2018).  

Several institutions and start-up companies (Stephens et al., 2018) are already working 
on the development of cellular agriculture and aquaculture across the world with the aim 
to offer the consumers food products that approximate the taste, texture and nutritional 
value of the original products. The majority of start-up companies working on the devel-
opment  of  cellular  products  are  located  in  the  US,  however,  start-up  companies  are 
founded also in Europe, Canada, Australia, Singapore and China.   

Demographic changes and economic conditions  
The current global population as of June 2021 is close to 8 billion and is expected to reach 
nearly 10 billion by 2050 (UN, 2019). As a consequence, the demand for food is expected 
to increase by some 70% between 2005/07 and 2050 (FAO, 2009). With rising population 
and personal incomes, demand for animal-based products is also expected to increase 
(FAO, 2018). Nevertheless, changes in diets based on ethical and environmental grounds 
have been observed over the last few years (this topic was considered in FORENV Cycle 
1, and more information can be found in the final report of Cycle 136). For instance, the 

Emerging 
is-
sue  descrip-
tion 

Key  drivers: 
what  is  driv-
ing  the  emer-
gence  of  this 
issue? 

3636 https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/fcb90b8b-09b4-11ea-8c1f-01aa75ed71a1/language-
en/format-PDF/source-search  

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increase of vegetarian and vegan diets among consumers could help reduce the environ-
mental impact of the animal-based diets (Saari U. A., Herstatt C., Tiwari R., Dedehayir O., 
Mäkinen S. L., 2021; Fresán U., Sabaté J., 2019). Although globally demand for meat is 
forecast to continue to grow in the next decades, a trend to reduced meat consumption 
in some regions (e.g. Europe) if it emerges could lead to a reduction in livestock farming, 
and encourage the development of a healthier and more sustainable food system (Hart-
mann C., Siegrist, M., 2017). 

Environmental concerns  
The  growing  global  demand  for  animal-based  products  will  significantly  increase  pres-
sures on limited resources, including land and water (Merck, 2020). The expansion of ar-
eas dedicated to agriculture and forestry for the purposes of, inter alia, commercial pro-
duction,  enhanced  agriculture  and  forestry  productivity  have  supported  consumption 
and food availability for a constantly growing population (Arneth A., et al., 2020). Glob-
ally, about one third of the land surface and three quarters of freshwater resources are 
used for crop or livestock production (Díaz, S., et al., 2019). More specifically, agriculture 
is responsible for 10.3% of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 70% of those 
come from the animal sector (EEA, 2019a). In general, it is estimated that around 23% of 
total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (2007-2016) derive from agriculture, for-
estry and other land use (Arneth A., et al., 2020). Moderate changes in food consumption, 
mainly the consumption of animal-based products, could significantly reduce emissions 
from  agriculture  production  (European  Commission,  2018).  Some  studies  have  shown 
that  increased  consumption  of  alternative  protein  sources  including  cellular  products 
could reduce environmental impacts and contribute to human health and animal welfare 
(Díaz, S., et al., 2019). Other research suggests that ‘dietary shifts could contribute one-
fifth of the mitigation needed to hold warming below 2°C’ (De Coninck, H., et al., 2018). 
The need to reduce the negative environmental impact of conventional agriculture is of 
high concern (see also Issue 4, which discusses regenerative agriculture). These impacts 
come from pressures including greenhouse gas emissions, local air pollutants, excessive 
use of fertilisers and pesticides leading to soil and waterways pollution, deforestation, 
biodiversity loss and pressure on animal welfare (Gasteratos, 2019; information about 
the use of fertilisers and pesticides in EEA 2019b; information about forests in Bahar et 
al., 2020; information on animal welfare in De Froidmont-Goertz I., et al., 2020). Regard-
ing seafood, the increasing demand across the world – with an annual growth rate of 3.1% 
over the past 60 years – has created great pressure on the marine environment. Interna-
tional trade is moreover linked to these pressures: seafood was among the world’s most 
traded food commodities in 2018, when nearly 67 million metric tonnes of seafood prod-
ucts were traded (Marwaha et al., 2020). Also, as the impacts of climate change intensify 
beyond the next decade, high-impact extreme weather events risk triggering shocks to 
the global food system, and yield losses are expected to approach severe and widespread 
levels  (Kōberle  A,  Mittal  S.,  Donovan  C.,  2021).  Cellular  agriculture  offers  an  option  to 
diversify food production and to reduce these risks.  

Policy goals  
The need to meet the UN Sustainable development Goals (SDGs) (Rischer, 2020), as well 
as the EU environmental targets set for the upcoming years focusing on (among others) 
biodiversity, soil, pollution and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will require 
new approaches for food production and consumption. In parallel, the benefits and pos-
sible trade-offs of such an effort would need to be considered. The Farm to Fork Strategy 
as part of the European Green Deal focuses, inter alia, on the possibility of alternative 
protein sources, such as algae, to accelerate the transition to sustainable food systems. 
To  achieve  this,  ‘increasing  the  availability  and  source  of  alternative  proteins  such  as 
plant, microbial, marine and insect-based proteins and meat substitutes’ will be key areas 
of research (European Commission, 2020).  

Public health concerns  
Τhe occurrence of diseases in humans, except in cases due to heredity and other factors, 
is often associated with the food we consume. While meat consumption played an im-

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portant role in human evolution and the agricultural and demographic transitions (Wil-
liams A., Hill L., 2017), excess red and processed meat consumption have significant neg-
ative effects on human health, especially in western diets. According to the WHO and the 
International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), the high accessibility and low price 
of processed animal protein food, as well as the large quantities consumed can lead to 
diet-related diseases, in particular non-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as cancer, 
cardiovascular diseases, obesity and diabetes. The IARC has classified processed meat as 
carcinogenic and red meat as probably carcinogenic to humans (Bouvard, V., et al., 2015). 
Investing in identifying and introducing other alternative protein sources into the human 
diet (e.g. cultured meat) could be a potential solution. However, this entails health, soci-
etal and regulatory considerations: they can be considered as novel food, which requires 
pre-market authorisation based on the assessment by the European Food Safety Author-
ity (EFSA) of any health risks that may be associated with their consumption. More re-
search is therefore needed on the potential positive and negative health impacts of a diet 
based on alternative sources of proteins such as cellular meat. Replacing a highly pro-
cessed product by another one is unlikely to lead to human health improvements. 

On  another  note,  it  is  estimated  that  about  60%  of  human  infections  have  an  animal 
origin, i.e. are zoonotic (UN, 2020). Unsustainable human activities, including, inter alia, 
the increasing human demand for animal protein; and the unsustainable exploitation of 
natural resources and wildlife contribute to the increase of such occurrence (UN, 2020). 
In particular, the global public health emergency caused by the spread of COVID-19, which 
has a zoonotic origin, has increased the focus of scientists and policy makers on the con-
nections between human activities, the environment and zoonotic diseases, and the need 
to prevent the risk of future diseases of the same origin (UN, 2020).   

Additionally, the use of antibiotics for meat and fish production is an issue of concern. 
Antibiotics are used in the industry as the main solution against contagious illnesses in 
farmed animals and aquaculture. However, imprudent use of the antibiotics contributes 
to the spread of antimicrobial resistance (Ibrahim M., et al., 2019). In this context, accord-
ing to the European Medicines Agency, a decline of 34.6% in sales was observed between 
2011 and 2018, which is quite promising (European Medicines Agency, 2020). 

Technological development 
Rapid technological development – in particular for biotechnology (EEA, 2020a) – and the 
interest  of  both  scientists  and  investors  in  the  development  of  cellular  agriculture  are 
perhaps the most significant drivers in the current emergence of cellular products, which 
could potentially contribute to the improvement of the ecological efficiency of food pro-
duction systems. The focus of the technological development is to create products that 
are as similar as possible to traditional products, such as meat or milk, in terms of taste, 
texture and nutritional value (Santo et al., 2020). Especially regarding meat, to achieve 
this level of progress to create fresh, unprocessed meat would require several particularly 
complex procedures, such as simulating the role of blood in delivering oxygen and nutri-
ents throughout thicker pieces of tissue, as well as co-culturing fat, muscle, and connec-
tive tissues (Fraeye et al., 2020). 

Social aspects 
As explained above, despite the need to reduce the negative impacts of conventional ag-
riculture, we observe a growing demand for animal-based products. This shows that die-
tary habits/behaviours, deeply engraved in cultural attitude, are difficult to change. New 
products need to be tasty, safe, healthy, clear (in terms of ingredients), available and ac-
cessible, and have affordable price. Consumption behaviour and people’s willingness to 
change their diets are important drivers for the development of such products.  

Consumers are also sensitive to the future of agriculture and farming systems. They may 
simply prefer eating meat coming from cows (and therefore perceived as natural) rather 
than created in laboratories. As such, for wider uptake of such products by consumers 
there would be a need to build trust, provide information and guarantees for all actors of 
the food systems (from the primary producers to the consumers). 

How  might 

In the last few years, start-up activities for cellular agriculture have multiplied; in fact, 
there is a race among companies to bring the first cultured animal products to the market. 

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the  issue  de-
velop 
in  fu-
ture? 

Private funding has supported their work. However, there is an underlying risk that global 
production of food could potentially be increasingly controlled by a few big companies 
around the world (SCHEER, 2021). For cellular meat, an estimated USD 600 million (ap-
proximately EUR 507 million) have been invested in the sector in the last few years (Dent, 
2021). It is expected that the global cultured meat market could be worth USD 1.66 billion 
(EUR 1.4 billion) by 2031 and will exceed USD 11 billion (EUR 9.3 billion) by 2041 (Dent, 
2021). The number of investments for cellular agriculture is expected to increase in the 
coming years.  
Among the leading companies already operating in the cellular meat sector are: Upside 
Foods (formerly known as Memphis Meats) based in California, US; Meatable and Mosa 
Meat both based in the Netherlands; and Higher Steaks based in London, UK. The first 
start-up companies in China, Zhouzi Weilai based in Nanjing and CellX based in Beijing, 
have recently been launched. On a global level, the Singapore Food Agency in November 
2020 granted the first regulatory approval to sell cultured meat to Eat Just, a Singapore-
based company (Helliwell and Burton, 2021). There are also a number of university labor-
atories with an interest in the field: a cultured meat advocacy group, New Harvest, has 
funded research fellows at the University of Bath, University of Ottawa, Tufts University, 
and North Carolina State University (Stephens et al., 2018). 
An example of cellular aquaculture is Shiok Meats, a Singapore-based company founded 
in 2018, which has started growing shrimp muscle tissues from stem cells: shrimp is con-
sidered an excellent product for replacement as it contains mainly muscle tissue (Lawton, 
2020). 
Other  companies  working  on  cellular  products  are  Clara  Foods  based  in  San-Francisco 
producing egg whites; Geltor based in San-Francisco producing gelatin; Spiber in Japan 
and  Bolt  Threads  in  California  producing  silk;  Modern  Meadow,  in  Brooklyn  producing 
leather; and Perfect Day in California, and New Culture in San-Francisco producing milk 
(Stephens and Ellis, 2020). 

The future development of cellular agriculture will be closely linked to a range of factors, 
including: government policies and targets that promote and regulate products including 
labelling; the extent of technological development; consumer perceptions of innovative 
products; the cellular agriculture industry could learn more about the public perception 
of innovative products from the Genetically modified organisms (GMO) debate; the cost 
of production, which needs to be reduced; social implications; identification and charac-
terisation of possible emerging risks for food and feed safety associated with cellular ag-
riculture; the influence of as well as the socio-economic impact on the conventional meat 
and agriculture industry (which in Europe can be significant); development of research; 
provision of clear information and communication (health, social and environmental im-
pacts, labelling, etc.). 

Cellular products follow the growth in more advanced plant-based meat alternatives, al-
ready on EU and international markets. However, the advantage of cellular products is 
the fact that they offer the possibility of achieving tastes, textures and nutrition values 
closer to current, animal-based products than plant-based alternatives (Jung Lee, 2020). 
One avenue for near-term product development, however, is the creation of hybrid plant-
based and cultured-based products (Rubio, 2020). 

The growth of cellular agriculture products could have major economic and social impacts 
on farming. A large-scale reduction in livestock production could lead to significant im-
pacts on employment in the livestock farming and the meat processing industry (Santo et 
al., 2020) and on rural economies that have relied on livestock and crop-based agriculture 
for centuries. More specifically, the latter could have indirect impact on consumption as 
well, since consumers might not support this initiative. In addition, food and food pro-
duction are important components of the cultural heritage for many European countries. 
Therefore, the development  and promotion of cellular products could have significant 
effects on local and regional cultures leading to cultural impoverishment and potential 
effects on local economies, as well (SCHEER, 2021).  

Consequently, it is important that there are opportunities for all actors of the food sys-
tems and to avoid leaving someone behind, in this case farmers. It is estimated that 30 

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million jobs are dependent on the livestock sector in Europe alone, where the sector also 
faces  low  profitability  and  pressures  from  global  market  forces  (Helliwell  and  Burton, 
2021). By one estimate, half of the 1.2 million jobs in U.S. beef and dairy production could 
be  lost  by  2030  and  farmland  values  could decrease  by  40-80%  (Helliwell  and  Burton, 
2021): a similar scale of impacts might be seen in Europe.  

implica-

Potential 
tions 
for  the  EU’s  ability 
to  deliver  a  zero-
pollution ambition 

Changes  in  energy 
consumption  asso-
ciated  for  agricul-
tural production 

Reduced 
livestock 
rearing  leading  to 
changes  in  associ-
ated  air  pollution 
greenhouse 
(and 
gases) 

Opportunities 
(for our ability to deliver a zero-pollu-
tion ambition) 

Risks 
(to  our  ability  to  deliver  a  zero-pollution 
ambition) 

Cellular agriculture on an industrial scale 
may  consume  large  amounts  of  energy, 
with associated emissions (of greenhouse 
gases  and  pollutants,  depending  on 
source).  Although data are not available 
on  this  trade-off,  this  increase  may  out-
weigh  energy  consumption  saved  from 
any  related  decline  in  conventional  agri-
culture,  as  agriculture  is  a  relatively  low 
consumer  of  energy  compared  to  other 
sectors (3.2% of final energy consumption 
in EU in 2018 (Eurostat, 2020).  

There is still no available evidence for air 
pollution from the cellular agriculture in-
dustry, however, additional research and 
monitoring  on  this  issue  is  required  (see 
research needs below).   

Although  data  are  limited,  energy  in-
tensity  (emissions  per  kg  produce)  re-
lated to livestock farming could be re-
duced.  A  2021  life  cycle  assessment 
(LCA)  and  a  techno-economic  assess-
ment  (TEA)  aiming  to  assess  a  future 
large-scale cultivated meat production 
facility,  estimate  that  meat  produced 
through  cellular  agriculture,  when  re-
newable energy is used, can reduce the 
climate  footprint  of  beef,  pork  and 
chicken by 92%, 52% and 17%, respec-
tively (Swartz E., 2021).   

Methane  emissions  produced  from 
livestock could be mitigated.  

Land use change could increase global 
carbon  sinks.    However,  this  depends 
also  on  the  land-use  change.    For  in-
stance, this would not apply in the case 
where conversion grassland grazed by 
animals would change to arable land.   

Air pollution from livestock could be re-
duced.  Livestock  activities  contribute 
to  the  greenhouse  effect  through  the 
emissions of greenhouse gases, includ-
ing  carbon  dioxide,  methane  and  ni-
trous  oxide.  More  specifically,  carbon 
dioxide  comes  from  the  respiratory 
process of all animals; methane comes 
as  part  of  their  digestive  process,  as 
well as from animal manure along with 
nitrous  dioxide  emissions.  Nearly  80% 
of the greenhouse gas emissions from 
agriculture  come  from  the  livestock 
sector (FAO, 2006). It is also estimated 
that  14.5%  of  total  human-derived 
greenhouse  gas  emissions  worldwide 
sector 
livestock 
come 
(Mendly-Zambo et al., 2021).  

from 

the 

Cellular  agriculture  might  lead  to  the 
mitigation  of  the  environmental  im-
pacts of livestock including air pollution 
by reducing the number of animals that 
would  need  to  be  raised  (Mendly-
Zambo et al., 2021). 

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Reduced 
livestock 
rearing  and  associ-
ated  demand  for 
feed, leading to re-
duced  pressure  on 
water  and  water 
pollution 

Water pollution from agriculture could 
be reduced, both from livestock raising 
as well as the growth of livestock feed. 
from  aquaculture 
Water  pollution 
could  also  be  reduced.  Agriculture  is 
one of the main sectors that contribute 
to the deterioration of water quality in 
Europe,  particularly  due  to  the  use  of 
nitrates and phosphorus (EEA, 2020b)  

Water  pollution  from  cellular  agricul-
ture  would  arise  mainly  from  point 
sources  (manufacturing  facilities)  and 
could be easier to control than diffuse 
agricultural pollution.  

Soil  contamination 
live-
to 
related 
stock-raising 
and 
feed crops could be 
reduced. 

Food  safety  and 
nutrition 

The  current  food  production  system 
contributes  to  the  soil  contamination 
through  the  use  of,  inter  alia,  pesti-
cides; ammonia, nitrates and phospho-
rus  emissions.  It  has  been  estimated 
that,  in  comparison  to  conventionally 
produced  European  meat,  cultured 
meat  involves  95%  lower  land  use  for 
beef, 72% for pork and 63% for chicken 
(Swartz E., 2021).  

Cellular agriculture in turn could lead to 
increased soil fertility and biodiversity.  

The  current  meat  production  system 
requires the use of antibiotics to avoid 
contagious illnesses in farmed animals 
and  aquaculture.  Cellular  agriculture 
does not require the use of any antibi-
otics, so it does not contribute to anti-
biotic  resistance  of  humans  (Saavoss, 
2019).   

The  use  of  new  chemical  substances  for 
cellular agriculture might lead to new wa-
ter pollution risks. The production of nu-
trients,  hormones  and  growth  factors  in 
large  quantities  and  with  the  aim  to  be 
compatible with human food will require 
the  use  of  new  chemical  substances 
(Warner, R., 2019). It is estimated that the 
use of strong chemicals and anti-microbi-
als will be required in the production pro-
cess;  however,  there  may  be  less  expo-
sure  to  chemicals  such  as  pesticides, 
which  can  harm  both  human  health  and 
wildlife (Warner, R., 2019).  

The growth factors and other substances 
that will need to be used for the produc-
tion  of  cellular  products  may  have  envi-
ronmental impacts. In addition to this, the 
effects of the extensive heating or illumi-
nation that might be needed for the pro-
duction of cellular products could poten-
tially  impact  local  biodiversity  (SCHEER, 
2021). However, there is currently limited 
information on these issues, therefore ad-
ditional research is needed (see research 
needs below).    

There is a trade-off however.  Particularly 
if  regenerative  techniques  are  used  (see 
Issue 4 which focuses on regenerative ag-
riculture) livestock can also play a role in 
health  soils,  for  example  by  providing  a 
source of organic fertilisers (manure man-
agement)  instead  of  synthetic  fertilis-
ers/pesticides.  

It is estimated that new chemicals will be 
used for the production  of cellular prod-
ucts  (Warner,  R.,  2019).  The  impact  of 
such  substances  on  human  health  is  not 
known, yet. Further research of the food 
safety and nutrition value of cellular prod-
ucts on human health is needed (see re-
search needs below). Additionally, issues 
like  cross-contamination,  shelf-life,  stor-
age  and  quality  standards  for  cellular 
products  still  need  to  be  examined 
(SCHEER, 2021).  

While  in  principle  cellular  agricultural 
products  can  have  the  same  nutritional 
characteristics  as  conventionally  pro-
duced, longitudinal studies will be needed 
to understand this.  There is a risk that cel-
lular products may not provide the same 
nutritional  benefits  (or  indeed  may  pose 

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Timeframe  of 
emergence  

Uncertainties 

health risks). 

The development of cellular agriculture is ongoing and is expected to emerge at scale in 
the long-term, thus in more than ten years.  

The first cultured meat products are expected to appear on markets before then (Jung 
Lee, 2020); however, there are still several and complex technological challenges to be 
taken into consideration before the sector is likely to take off.  

The main uncertainties associated to the development of cellular agriculture are related 
to the evolution of its costs; to consumer perception and acceptance of cellular agricul-
ture products; and to the safety of human health.   

The  first  burger  patty  from  cellular  agriculture,  introduced  in  2013,  cost  around  EUR 
250,000. Since then, the cost has decreased, but products are still not affordable for con-
sumers, with Bloomberg reporting in 2020 that lab-grown meat currently costs between 
USD 400 and 2,000 per kg to produce (Bloomberg, 2020). The main element that signifi-
cantly increases the cost is the use of foetal bovine serum in the culture process, which 
promotes the growth of the product. An alternative to this kind of serum would reduce 
the cost (EEA, 2021). In addition to this, the suitability of muscles and tissues to be used 
in order to achieve  mass production of cultured meat, for instance, still needs further 
development and research (Jung Lee, 2020). Other cellular agriculture products, such as 
shrimp, might become widespread before meat products. 

On a religious perspective, there are several questions to be discussed based on the rules 
of each religion (Bryant C. J., 2020). For Orthodox Jews, for instance, the main question if 
the cellular meat is kosher, thus prepared according to the standers of traditional Jewish 
law. Determining factors could include the source of the animal cells to be used, the na-
ture of the growth medium, as well as the exact procedure to be followed for the produc-
tion of the cellular meat (Kenigsberg J. A., Zivotofsky A. Z., 2020). Respective issues would 
arise for Muslims and the main question is whether cellular meat is halal, thus compliant 
with Islamic laws. For halal cultured meat, the cell to be extracted from a slaughtered 
animal, whereas no blood or serum shall be used in the process (Hamdan M. N., Post M. 
J., Ramli M. A., Mustafa A. R., 2018). In the same vein, Hinduism focuses on nonviolence, 
thus cellular meat could be considered as a process of avoiding harming animals (Mattick 
et al., 2015). 

Consumer perceptions of cellular agriculture products will define the development of the 
sector. After the introduction of the cellular agriculture products on the market, consum-
ers will decide the extent to which they replace current animal-based products. Consum-
ers  are  usually suspicious  with  regards  to  artificially  made  products and  this  has  been 
evident  through  a  number  of  surveys  conducted  in  the  last  few  years.  For  example,  a 
survey has shown that two-thirds of consumers contacted are interested in trying cul-
tured meat but only about one-third report that they would be interested in eating this 
on a regular basis (EEA, 2021). The name used to market such products could be a key 
factor in consumer up-take. Consumers seem to better accept terms such as ‘animal-free’ 
or ‘clean’ rather than ‘lab-grown’ products (Rubio et at., 2020).  

Furthermore, the safety of human health is essential during the development of cultured 
products. For instance, bacterial growth in bioreactors or use of a contaminated growth 
medium (serum) could create risks for human health if not managed properly (Saavoss, 
2019).   

In this context, the EU Novel Food Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2015/2283) would play an 
important role in ensuring the protection of EU consumers. According to the provisions 
of this Regulation, ‘novel food’ includes newly developed, innovative food, food produced 
with new technologies or food that has been traditionally eaten outside the EU. There-
fore, cellular products are expected to fall under the scope of the Regulation, which pro-
vides that novel food must be safe for the consumers, properly labelled and where the 
food is intended to replace another food, it does not differ from that food in such a way 
that its normal consumption would be nutritionally disadvantageous for the consumer.  

Additional re- Although cellular agriculture  currently seems to constantly progress and attract atten-

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search  or  evi-
that 
dence 
may 
be 
needed 

tion, there are still uncertainties and difficulties to overcome. There are also still uncer-
tainties regarding the timeline and infrastructure required for the production of cellular 
products. To further analyse the opportunities and risks, a detailed foresight investigation 
could be conducted to understand the cellular products that could first enter EU markets.  

Studies on the pollution risks from the different types of products and production meth-
ods  would  contribute  to understanding  the  possible  environmental  impacts  of  cellular 
agriculture, for example from chemicals used in the production process or the use of ex-
tensive heating or illumination.  

Studies regarding the regulatory structures in other markets, such as in Singapore, in com-
parison to the provisions of European legislation and especially the Novel Food Regula-
tion,  would  improve  the  understanding  of  regulatory  approaches  and  the  speed  with 
which products might come to market elsewhere in the world.  

Since there are uncertainties regarding consumer acceptance, studies on the perspectives 
of consumers on cellular agriculture and the benefits and the obstacles that would con-
cern them could also be useful for both producers and regulators. In addition, studies on 
health impacts regarding, for instance benefits and nutrition value of the cellular products 
would be the tool to improve the development of the sector and also properly inform the 
consumers.   

In conclusion, studies on the economic impact of the establishment of the cellular indus-
try would enable a prevision of the economic effect and a cost-benefit analysis of such an 
innovative development.  

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UN, 2020. Preventing the next pandemic - Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain 
of  transmission.  Available  at:  https://www.unep.org/resources/report/preventing-fu-
ture-zoonotic-disease-outbreaks-protecting-environment-animals-and.  

Warner, R., 2019. Review: Analysis of the process and drivers for cellular meat produc-
tion.  Animal,  13(12),  3041-3058.  Available  at:  https://www.cambridge.org/core/jour-
nals/animal/article/review-analysis-of-the-process-and-drivers-for-cellular-meat-pro-
duction/44A1650E41518B5D42CEA5D68EC32F36.  

Williams A. C, Hill L. J., 2017. Meat and Nicotinamide: A Causal Role in Human Evolution, 
History,  and  Demographics.  International  journal  of  tryptophan  research,  IJTR  vol.  10. 
Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5417583/.  

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Issue 7: An accelerating race to space: what will be the direct and indirect pollution impacts? 
The space industry has greatly evolved since the launch of the very first artificial Earth-
orbiting satellite, Sputnik, in 1957 (Durrieu and Nelson, 2013). While the first race to 
space  throughout  the  1960s  was  a  competition  between  the  USA  and  Russia,  today 
more than 70 nations have their own satellites and/or launch systems, and a growing 
number  of  private  companies  are  driving  the  space  industry  forward  (Goodrich  and 
Bowler, 2017). Around 2,000 satellites are currently orbiting Earth and on average an 
additional 300 are launched each year. However, this number is expected to dramati-
cally  increase  in  the  coming  years,  with  around  1,100  annual  satellite  launches  ex-
pected by 2025 (Ryan-Mosley et al., 2019). In addition to satellite launches, numerous 
other developments are underway or have been proposed, such as new lunar and mars 
explorations, space tourism or moon mining, driven by key international players (e.g., 
China, EU, India, USA) and billionaire-owned companies such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX, 
Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic, and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin (Bachman, 2020).  

Emerging  issue 
description 

New and accelerating race to space leads to technological developments and discover-
ies. It helps us better understand our planet while space data, services, and applications 
support the green economy. However, so far limited attention has been given to the 
broader environmental impacts of space exploration itself (Torbet, 2019) and to means 
of preventing and remediating potential pollution created in space. This issue explores 
the longer-term trajectory of space related activities in (and in reaching) orbital and 
near-Earth space (e.g., the design and development of satellites as well as space explo-
ration missions) and how they may impact on the EU’s ability to deliver a zero-pollution 
ambition. It reflects on how a booming and crowded space sector in 2050 could affect 
a range of types of pollution (including debris in near earth space, cumulative air pollu-
tion from launches and pollution linked to the manufacturing of satellites and compo-
nents).  

Consumer demand and business opportunities 
Satellite technologies have become an integral part of  everyday life  from television, 
weather services, to Global Satellite Navigation Systems (GNSS) such as Galileo or GPS. 
The demand for such satellite-based information, communication services and earth 
observation data is increasing and is likely to continue growing over the next decades, 
notably  the  demand  for  high-speed  internet  connectivity,  and  navigation  systems 
(Milne-Tyte, 2019). This makes the space economy particularly interesting for private 
companies, which are  increasingly investing in rocket and satellite launches. Beyond 
the well-known large companies, such as SpaceX, hundreds of smaller companies and 
start-ups have entered the space economy over the past years (Morgan Stanley, 2020). 
OECD estimates that the annual global commercial revenues from the space sector are 
in the range of USD 280-300 billion (ca. EUR 230-250 billion) (OECD, 2020). This has also 
led to increasing interest from venture capital and private-equity firms that are invest-
ing and funding long-term space projects (Morgan Stanley, 2020).  

Technological developments and falling costs 
Technological  advances  in  recent  years  are  a  key  driver  of  the  accelerating  race  to 
space, as they have led to lower costs and improved efficiency of launches, in turn lead-
ing to greater accessibility of space for commercial activities. For example, larger satel-
lites tend to have greater reliability and durability; however, with recent technological 
improvements, the percentage of smaller satellites weighing under 500kg (known as 
smallsats) successfully completing their mission has improved (Foust, 2020). While a 
traditional satellite can cost around EUR 52 million to launch, launching a smallsat from 
a rocket can now cost as little as EUR 247,000 (Goodrich and Bowler, 2017). 

Government policies and funding  
Although space is no longer the preserve of governments, they are expected to remain 
key players for the foreseeable future (Morgan Stanley, 2020). Space exploration is still 
seen as an area of key strategic national interest and an increasing number of nations 
both big (such as China and India) and small (e.g., Estonia, Luxembourg and the United 
Arab Emirates) are building up space assets and planning future space exploration mis-
sions (Cookson, 2021; Bachman, 2020; Rang, 2017). African countries are also starting 

February 2022  92 

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Key 
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to join the space race, with at least 20 countries on the continent now having a space 
programme (e.g., Algeria, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria and more recently Mauritius). It is es-
timated  that  African  governments  budgeted  about  EUR  419  million  for  their  space 
agencies  in  2020,  compared  to  EUR  272  million  in  2019  (The  Economist,  2021).  The 
drive to gain national independence in space and satellite technologies will continue to 
act as a key driver for accelerating the race to space – as independence was a key rea-
son for the EU’s Galileo and Copernicus programmes.  

The space economy is expected to boom over the next decades with the increase of 
commercial launches and space activities, along with government and public-sector in-
terest in deep space exploration and research. Morgan Stanley’s Space Team estimates 
that the global space industry could increase from USD 300 billion (EUR 250 billion) per 
year  today  to  over  USD  1  trillion  (EUR  0.84  trillion)  by  2040,  while  Bank  of  America 
Merrill Lynch predicts that the industry will reach at least USD 2.7 trillion (EUR 2.3 tril-
lion) per year in the next 30 years (EIB, 2019). 

The following key trends could occur over the next decades:  
•  A very large increase in satellite launches, notably using satellite constellations. As 
a key example, the Starlink project by SpaceX plans to launch 12,000 small satel-
lites by 2027 (already approved by the US Federal Communications Commission 
(FCC)) with the aim of providing high-speed satellite internet across the world. In 
addition,  in  2019  SpaceX  sent  paperwork  to  the  FCC  seeking  approval  for  the 
launch of 30,000 satellites in the coming decade. Due to the magnitude of the re-
quest, which will lead to a five-fold increase in the number of satellites currently in 
orbit, the FCC passed on the request to the United Nations’ International Telecom-
munication Union (ITU) (Sheetz and Petrova, 2019). The demand for Earth Obser-
vation tools and imagery is also expected to increase, as seen in the growing suc-
cess of companies such as Planet, which operates constellations of Earth imaging 
satellites  whose  images  are  sold  to  private  and  public  clients.  The  company  in-
creased its customer base by 21% in the first half of 2020 (Marshall, 2020) and is 
pioneering the launch and use of smallsats (Foust, 2020).   

•  An increase in the number of deep space exploration missions. Several countries 
as  well  as  businesses,  including  China,  the  USA,  and  the  private  company  Blue 
Origin, have plans to set up lunar bases in the future. For example, in 2020, NASA 
unveiled plans to set up the ‘Artemis boot camp’ on the moon beyond 2024 (NASA, 
2021), while China and Russia announced plans to build an International Lunar Re-
search Station (Clark, 2021), and the European Space Agency (ESA) has been work-
ing on blueprints for a future Moon Village (ESA, 2020). These lunar bases are en-
visioned to enable various activities such as research, mining of materials, or tour-
ism (Nelson, 2019). In addition to settlements on the moon, exploring and landing 
humans on Mars is the new priority for NASA and a central goal for Elon Musk is to 
create a self-sustaining city on Mars in the future (Bachman, 2020). To this end, 
Musk is currently developing a megarocket, which will be 122m long and contain 
33 engines capable of carrying up to 100 tons into orbit (Waters, 2021).  
The advent of space tourism. In July 2021, Jeff Bezos successfully launched to space 
aboard the New Shepard, the reusable suborbital rocket developed by his company 
Blue Origin, along with three other passengers, for a 10-minute trip going up to an 
altitude of 100km (Rincon, 2021). A few months later in October 2021, the New 
Shepard was launched again with four other individuals, including 90-year-old ac-
tor William Shatner (Amos, 2021a). In addition, Richard Branson achieved a similar 
feat  in  July  2021,  17  years  after  announcing  his  intention to  create  a  suborbital 
space plane (Amos, 2021b). In the same vein, in September 2021, SpaceX carried 
four billionaire tourists into orbit for a three-day extra-terrestrial excursion aboard 
a fully autonomous spacecraft, the Crew Dragon capsule, which was the first flight 
to Earth’s orbit flown entirely by non-astronauts (Wattles, 2021). These successful 
launches of rockets developed for leisure purposes mark a key milestone towards 

• 

February 2022  93 

How might the 
issue  develop 
in future? 

 
 
 
 
 
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advances in space tourism. These private companies claim to be working towards 
‘democratising’ space travel and plan to increase the offer for leisure trips to space 
(although  it  should  be  noted  that  the  claim  to  democratisation  is  undermined 
somewhat by the costs of such flights). While space flight is likely to remain limited 
to a small number of wealthy people, suborbital tourist trips may become accessi-
ble to larger numbers. Virgin Galactic’s aircraft, recently tested by Richard Branson 
himself, intends to take passengers on 90min flights to the edge of space, at an 
altitude outside of the earth’s atmosphere – the waiting list for Virgin’s space tour-
ism flights is already 600 people long (Torbet, 2019b). Virgin Atlantic announced in 
July 2021, that it intends to open flights to paying customers in 2022 - however, it 
should be noted that the company has made similar announcements over the past 
15  years  (Amos,  2021b).    The  development  of  space  tourism  may  also  lead  to 
greater inequality in the world and apathy from sections of the population paying 
the price for pollution linked to opportunities that are inaccessible to them, while 
no real benefits to humanity are expected in return.   
The development of extra-terrestrial mining for key resources on the moon and 
potentially  on  asteroids  and  on  mars  in  the  longer-term  (this  was  explored  in 
FORENV Cycle 2, Issue 10: Moving beyond land boundaries for the green economy 
of the future  (European Commission, 2021). Political and commercial interest in 
space mining is growing as the concept is seen by many as realistic and achievable 
in the future (Pandya, 2019), though its timeframes are uncertain. The moon and 
asteroids contain valuable resources such as ice and metals (e.g. iron, tungsten, 
titanium) which could be extracted first to facilitate further exploration of outer 
space by providing fuel and materials for spacecraft and in the longer term to meet 
needs on Earth (Cookson, 2017). Investment in R&D for space mining is expected 
to triple in value worldwide, reaching USD 3 billion (EUR 2.5 billion) by 2025 (Cor-
rea, 2019). ESA has for example recently set up a Space Resources Strategy for the 
period 2020-2030, which will prioritise resource extraction from the moon, while 
acknowledging that other destinations (e.g. asteroids, Mars) may become relevant 
in due course. ESA’s strategy over the next decade will focus on exploring the po-
tential of the moon as a source of resources and the development of technologies 
for mining such resources (ESA, 2019).  
Similarly, space manufacturing is gaining increased interest as the long-term pro-
spect of setting up factories in space is appearing more realistic (Gamota, 2021). 
For example, since 2014 the ISS has been using 3D printing to produce tools and 
parts needed within the space station and to test manufacturing in microgravity. 
More recently in 2020 the Made In Space, Inc. company also sent the first ceramic 
manufacturing facility to the ISS (Made In Space, 2020). These examples reflect the 
beginning  of  space  manufacturing.  Although there  are  many  unknowns  and  the 
technology is at a pilot stage, the idea of extending supply chains to outer space is 
being discussed (Gamota, 2021). The next decades could see the development of 
manufacturing plants and utility companies in space to make novel materials and 
products in microgravity both for space consumption and to bring back for terres-
trial consumption.  

• 

• 

•  One area of interest is the creation and deployment of huge solar panels in space 
that would beam energy to Earth. A key challenge for renewable energies (such as 
wind and solar power technologies) is to provide sufficient and constant energy 
supplies, as they are heavily impacted by clouds and atmospheric interference. Or-
bital solar power stations, however, would be much more efficient, as they would 
continuously face the sun. Current blueprints for orbital solar power stations fore-
see beaming energy back to earth via electromagnetic fields which would be trans-
ferred down to an antenna on the Earth’s surface (Hughes and Soldini, 2020). ESA 
is currently looking to fund pilot orbital solar power projects and has suggested 
that energy will be the first resource that could be produced in and imported from 

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space (ESA, 2020b ). In addition, China is working on a solar panel system called 
Omega, proposed to be operational by 2050 (Yang et al., 2016). 

It is important to note, however, that future developments in the space industry will 
be highly impacted by developments in the regulatory framework. There is currently 
a legal vacuum surrounding the increasing role of the private sector in space and the 
development of new activities such as space mining and space manufacturing. These 
developments open a series of legal uncertainties on issues such as ownership and lia-
bility over the resources obtained and activities performed in space, which will need to 
be addressed to enable further developments in the industry. Further developments in 
the space industry may lead to an update of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, and it is also 
possible that monitoring and enforcements of sanctions in case of non-compliance with 
standards are introduced.    

In addition, updates to current space law to better account for environmental concerns 
could act as a driver for further development of cleaner/greener space related activi-
ties. For example, it would support current initiatives to develop more environmentally 
friendly technologies such as green(er) propellants and reusable launch systems. The 
ESA  is  notably  pioneering  a  Clean  Space  Initiative  and  is  developing  mitigation 
measures to try and ensure cleaner space travel in the future (ESA, 2019b).  

implica-

Potential 
tions 
for  the  EU’s  ability 
to  deliver  a  zero-
pollution ambition 

Increase  in  rocket 
launches leading to 
air  pollutant  emis-
sions,  especially  at 
high altitudes.  Ad-
verse  effects 
for 
the ozone layer are 
of  particular  con-
cern. 

Risks  of  soil  pollu-
tion  and  ecological 
damage 
around 
the  growing  num-
ber of launch sites 

Increase  in  water 
pollution 
around 
the  growing  num-
ber of launch sites 

Space  debris  and 
components falling 
back to Earth 

Opportunities 
(for our ability to deliver a 
zero-pollution ambition) 

Risks 
(to our ability to deliver a zero-pollution ambition) 

Triggering negotiations to 
align  existing 
interna-
tional treaties (Moon and 
Outer  space)  with  tech-
nological  developments, 
including 
low-emission 
rockets. 

To  promote  best  prac-
tises  reducing  soil  pollu-
tion of launch services. 

To  promote  best  prac-
tises  reducing  water  pol-
lution of launch services. 

and 

The EU strategy for Space 
Traffic 
Management 
(STM)  will  develop  STM 
rules, 
standards 
to 
which  are  needed 
avoid collision events that 
may result from the pro-
liferation of satellites and 
space  debris  and  could 
catastrophic 
lead 

to 

Risk  of  a  growing  source  of  long-term  damage  to  the 
ozone layer. Although there is a lack of research on the 
impact  of  high-altitude  rocket  emissions,  some  initial 
studies find that the chemicals burned by rockets and 
deposited in the upper atmosphere (such as chlorine, 
black carbon, soot, and aluminium oxide) could lead to 
a 1% hole in the ozone if rocket launches increase by a 
factor  of  10  (Dallas  et  al.,  2020;  Torbet,  2019a).  The 
level  and  type  of  emissions,  however,  depend  on  the 
type of rocket and fuel used (e.g., hydrogen rockets out-
put water as opposed to chemicals).  

Rocket launches have the potential to impact soil qual-
ity and local ecology, by increasing the level of certain 
metals in the soil. Surrounding vegetation can also be 
negatively  impacted  through  the  deposition  of  acidic 
droplets and alumina from the ground cloud (Dallas et 
al., 2020).   

Launch sites are usually situated in proximity to water 
sources.  A  study  on  the  environmental  impact  of 
launches found that the pH level of surrounding water 
fell from 7 to 1 after the launch of a rocket (returning to 
a level of 7 three days later) which killed many fish in 
the process (Dallas et al., 2020). 

Space  debris  could  interrupt  and/or  destroy  satellites 
including earth observation systems. In the long-run, in-
creased  space  debris  could  also  prevent  legitimate 
space  exploration  missions  from  taking  place  due  to 
high  risks  of  collision  (OECD,  2020b).  In  addition,  alt-
hough  most  components  burn  on  re-entry,  there  are 
risks linked to the potential increase in non-recovered 
components falling back on Earth (Durrieu and Nelson, 
2013).   

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this 

events  for  EU  assets  in 
space. STM will also avoid 
the risk of non-EU stand-
ards becoming the norm, 
as 
dependence 
would have a negative ef-
fect  on  European  efforts 
to  achieve  technological 
sovereignty. This flagship 
should also contribute to-
wards  building  an  inter-
to 
national 
STM. 

approach 

in 

This aspect could be con-
sidered 
international 
negotiations  to  update 
existing 
international 
treaties (Moon and Outer 
space). 

If  the  planned  Low  Earth  Orbit  satellite  constellations 
are  launched,  within  a  few  years  night  skies  could  be 
10% brighter across the planet (Massey, 2021). As well 
as representing light pollution on a global scale, this is 
likely  to  hamper  the  work  of  astronomers  (Massey, 
2021).  

Space tourism could rein-
force  the  need  interna-
tional  emission  stand-
ards.  

Solar panels in space can 
create a reliable renewa-
ble energy source for ter-
restrial activities.  

development 

of 
The 
space 
manufacturing 
could reduce the environ-
mental  costs  of  sending 
resources  into  orbit  (Au-
try, 2020). 

Potential  for  technology 
transfer  from  space-re-
lated  R&D  to  the  fight 
against  pollution.  For  ex-
ample, 
carbon-capture 
systems  used  in  space-
ships are informing tech-
nologies  on  Earth  to  pull 
carbon  dioxide  from  the 
atmosphere 
(Fialka, 
2018). 

New scientific discoveries 
on the evolution of other 
planets could help model-
ling  climate  change  on 
Earth (Autry, 2020).   

Remote  sensing 
in-
creasingly  used  to  track 
pollution and greenhouse 

is 

Risk of creating of a new type of heavily polluting avia-
tion  industry,  where  the  pollution  is  emitted  at  much 
higher  altitudes,  with  uncertain  effects  on  the  ozone 
(see above). Further research on the impact of high-al-
titude  rocket  emissions  is  necessary  to  evaluate  this 
risk.  

Potential  risk  linked  to  the  highly  unknown  conse-
quences  of  displacing  polluting  activities  from  Earth 
into outer space (e.g., the Moon). This is a highly spec-
ulative risk as there is currently no research or data to 
carry out evaluations, as such technology does not yet 
exist.  

Risks linked to the production and operation of satel-
lites – from extraction and treatment of materials nec-

February 2022  96 

Growing  light  pol-
lution  from  an  in-
creasing number of 
satellites in low or-
bits. 

in  com-
Increase 
mercial orbital and 
sub-orbital 
flights 
for commercial and 
leisure purposes.  

Creation  of  space-
based  solar  power 
the 
stations 
long-term 
a 
source  of  renewa-
ble energy 

as 

in 

of 
Displacement 
extractive  manu-
facturing processes 
to  space 
in  the 
long-term 

New  scientific  dis-
coveries  

Increased  data  to 
monitor  and  track 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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essary  for  the  electronic  and  non-electronic  compo-
nents to the waste produced. Key elements of concern 
are the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) emitting ma-
terials in the harness of satellites (i.e., the assembly of 
electric cables and wires), germanium in solar cells and 
hydrazine  for  rocket  propellant  (which  is  concerned  a 
substance of very high concern (SVHC) by ECHA) (ESA, 
2019c).  

Risk  linked  to  the  data  centres  necessary  to  process, 
store  and  disseminate  information  obtained  from  the 
satellites  –  notably  high  energy  consumptions  and  in-
creased e-waste.  

pollution  from  sat-
ellites  (e.g.  Earth 
Observation 
sys-
tems)  and  help 
other  sectors  re-
duce their environ-
mental footprint.  

gas emissions – for exam-
ple  detecting  CO2  emis-
sions  and  natural-gas 
leaks from sources includ-
ing  oil  wells,  landfills,  in-
dustrial  operations,  and 
farms  (Morgan  Stanley, 
2020b).  

to 

Increased availability and 
accessibility 
space 
data,  services  and  appli-
cations  on  pollution    in-
creasingly helps to inform 
numerous  activities  rele-
vant  for  reducing  pollu-
tion,  potentially    future 
regulation  and  increase 
citizen awareness. Due to 
this capacity, space data, 
services  and  applications 
are  offset  to  be  included 
into the Taxation Regula-
tion  as  enabler  to  green 
the economy. 

Timeframe  of 
emergence  

Uncertainties 

Some technologies are already well advanced, and the falling costs of rocket launch 
means that a large increase in satellite technology and space exploration missions is 
likely to occur in the short to medium term.  

The longer-term future of the space economy is difficult to predict. The increasing com-
mercialisation and involvement of private companies is driving innovation and pushing 
the  space  economy  forward  more  vigorously  than  ever  before.  However,  there  are 
many  uncertainties  and  practical  and  technological  hurdles  that  are  yet  to  be  over-
come.  

On the other hand, more ambitious extra-terrestrial activities such as Moon or Mars 
settlements, space mining and manufacturing are likely to develop only in the much 
longer-term, over several decades – possibly in the second half of this century (Cook-
son, 2017). 

The main uncertainties linked to an accelerating race to space are about the feasibility 
of certain technologies; the environmental impacts of space exploration, including the 
cumulative effect of a potentially significantly higher number of rocket launches in fu-
ture; and regulatory uncertainties.  These are discussed below. 

More ambitious space exploration projects, such as mining resources or manufacturing 
in space, still require extensive research and long-term investments with limited or no 
returns in the short-term and uncertain long-term returns. Key hurdles are yet to be 
overcome  on  how  to  assemble,  launch,  and  deploy  large  structures  in  outer  space 
(Hughes and Soldini, 2020) and may arguably never be feasible (Abrahamian, 2019).   

The environmental impacts of the space industry are currently not well studied, and 
the understanding of rocket emissions is poor (Dallas et al., 2020; Torbet 2019; Durrieu 
and Nelson, 2013). Limited scientific evidence is available on the extent and speed at 
which increased rocket launches could cause long-term damage to the ozone layer and 
the local environment surrounding space ports. So far, the environmental impact of the 
space industry has been considered very low compared to the aviation industry (e.g., 
less  than,  1%  of  annual  European  transport  emissions).  However,  as  the  number  of 
launches increases, the impact will grow. While existing studies usually focus on the 
environmental effects of singular launches or a small number of annual launches, few 
consider  the  cumulative  environmental  impact  of  frequent  launches  (Dallas  et  al., 
2020). There is a lack of understanding of the effects of pollution released in the upper 

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Additional  re-
search  or  evi-
dence that may 
be needed 

References 

atmosphere,  including  of  newer  technologies  considered  more  environmentally 
friendly, such as hydrogen-based rockets. The latter are, for example, likely to increase 
mesospheric cloud formation (the mesosphere is a high atmosphere layer just below 
the stratosphere), with unclear impacts on the atmosphere and climate (Dallas et al., 
2020). However, at the same time it is important to underline the role satellites play in 
the greening of the economy by generating services and data to support these activities 
. 

Future developments in the space industry will also lead to uncertainties on issues such 
as  ownership  and  liability  over  the  resources  obtained  and  activities  performed  in 
space. While the provisions of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty prescribe that no state can 
claim ownership of outer space (United Nations, 2021), the involvement of private par-
ties is unregulated territory and a legal grey zone. Regulation and global accords will 
therefore be important to shape the future of the space industry, including in relation 
to the environment and pollution (Pandya, 2019). 

As mentioned above, limited scientific research has been carried out on the environ-
mental impacts of the space industry as a whole, which leads to difficulties in modelling 
future impacts linked to the design, production, launch and end of life of space activi-
ties and missions. While much research has focused on the issue of space debris, lim-
ited attention has been given to rocket emissions, pollution around launch sites, and 
the potential for noise and light pollution.  The field could therefore benefit from addi-
tional research in these areas, and notably on comparing the environmental impact of 
different types of propellants used in rockets and on the cumulative effect of launches 
on the atmosphere and climate.  

In the same vein, following the example of ESA’s Clean Space initiative, more R&D is 
needed to continue developing green and sustainable space technologies. As it is cur-
rently very difficult to quantify the impact of space activities, notably due to the lack of 
necessary data, further research is needed to develop appropriate methodologies for 
carrying out full life cycle assessments of space activities.  

Finally,  foresight  studies on  future  growth  rates  of  the  space  industry,  as  well  as  its 
directions, should seek to include estimates on the volume of potential pollution and 
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leases/made-in-space-to-launch-first-ceramic-manufacturing-facility-to-the-interna-
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for Disarmament Affairs. Available at: https://treaties.unoda.org/t/outer_space  

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Issue 8: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased interest in resilience.  Will a resilient Eu-
rope also be a zero pollution one? 

Major disruptive events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 financial and 
economic crisis, together with increasing environment and climate pressures and ex-
treme events (e.g. wild-fires, flooding), have led to an increased focus on resilience in 
Europe over the last decade.  

The European Union’s (EU) ambition for the future is to achieve or strengthen resili-
ence in four interrelated dimensions:  social and economic, geopolitical, green, and 
digital (European Commission, 2020a). However, it is likely that different aspects of 
resilience will be prioritised at certain times in response to the most pressing shocks 
and challenges the EU might face. This emerging issue explores whether the increased 
focus on resilience could result in environmental implications and distribution of pol-
lution across different sectors and affect the EU’s zero pollution ambitions for 2050 as 
outlined in the Zero pollution action plan Pathway to a Healthy Planet for All EU Action 
Plan: 'Towards Zero Pollution for Air, Water and Soil' (European Commission, 2021b). 

The recent 2020 Strategic Foresight report - ‘Charting the course towards a more re-
silient Europe’ - states that resilience has become a ‘new compass for the EU policies’ 
(European Commission, 2020, p.2). In 2017 this was foreseen by the European Com-
mission’s Joint  Research  Centre  (JRC):  Thinking  about  a  future  characterised  by  cli-
mate change and environmental challenges, digitalisation, demographic change, glob-
alisation, and migration becoming the “new normal” they envisaged resilience becom-
ing the most important task of policy institutions (Joint Research Centre, 2017).  

Building on the first lessons from the COVID-19 crisis, the EU’s current conceptualisa-
tion of a resilient Europe is to achieve resilience along four interrelated dimensions – 
social and economic, geopolitical, green, and digital (European Commission, 2020a).  
The 2020 Strategic Foresight report explains the importance of resilience in achieving 
the EU’s strategic long-term objectives in the context of digital, green and fair transi-
tions.  It also analyses the EU’s vulnerabilities and resilience capacities across the four 
dimensions in the light of relevant megatrends - long-term driving forces that are ob-
servable now and will most likely have a significant influence on the future (European 
Commission, 2020a; Joint Research Centre, 2018).  

The key drivers behind the renewed interest in resilience of the EU are the challenges 
and shocks that Europe has been facing over the last two decades including: 

• 

• 

• 

• 

the ongoing health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (European Commis-
sion, 2020a) and the threat of future health challenges (Joint Research Centre, 
2018; European Commission, 2020a) 

the financial and economic crisis of the 2008 financial crash (Joint Research Cen-
tre, 2018) as well as economic challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic; 

the environmental and climate emergency characterised by climate change, hab-
itat and biodiversity loss, and increased pollution (European Environment Agency, 
2019; OECD, 2020b); 

EU  countries  facing  national  and  geo-political  instabilities,  migration  pressures 
and security threats (Joint Research Centre, 2018) 

The ongoing health crisis and the threat of future health challenges 

Europe, as well as the rest of the world, is in the short- to medium-term faced with 
overcoming the health emergency and managing recovery from the COVID-19 pan-
demic (European Commission, 2020a; OECD, 2020a). In the future Europe could be 
challenged by other pandemics. According to the recent scientific evidence review by 
Intergovernmental  Science-Policy  Platform  on  Biodiversity  and  Ecosystem  Services 
(IPBES), pandemics are in the future likely to emerge more often, be deadlier, and 
spread  faster  (IPBES,  2020).  Climate  change  (driving  movement  of  people,  wildlife, 

February 2022  102 

Emerging 
description 

issue 

Key drivers: what 
the 
is  driving 
emergence 
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disease reservoirs37, and vectors38, and spread of their pathogens, in ways that lead 
to new contact among specie), and biodiversity loss (associated with transformations 
of landscapes leading to adaptability of species that can harbour pathogens to human-
dominated landscapes) are identified as likely to cause substantial future pandemic 
risk (IPBES, 2020). While life expectancy has improved in the last decades and progress 
has been made in some areas of environment and health, such as air pollution, Europe 
is  likely  to  have  to  deal  with  an  increasing  burden  of  non-communicable  diseases 
(NCDs), notably due to lifestyle and age related disease such as cancer and obesity, as 
well as an increase in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) (Joint Research Centre, 2018; 
Pushkarev et al., 2019; World Health Organisation, 2017). Increase of pharmaceutical 
waste related to the current pandemic but also other heath challenges is likely to fur-
ther contribute to AMR in the future (Kraemer et al., 2019).  

The financial and economic crisis including the 2008 financial crash and economic 
challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic   

Partially still recovering from the 2008 financial crisis, Europe is likely to suffer (at least 
short- to medium-term, but possibly long lasting) economic damage resulting from 
the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic response in Europe has had some beneficial 
outcomes from an environmental and resilience perspective, such as (at least in the 
short-term) reductions in air pollution, and showing how science  can contribute to 
solving societal and health challenges as demonstrated by the rapid vaccine develop-
ment and distribution that enabled a return to economic activities. However signifi-
cant challenges remain and could include company failures, the loss of financial capital 
irreversibly declining in value, disrupted supply chains and networks, decreased in-
vestment capacity, and unemployment (Joint Research Centre, 2018; European Com-
mission, 2020a). The absence of radical shifts in production and consumption patterns 
and continuous reliance on the current volatile and unstable economic system based 
on continuous economic growth at the cost of environment and consequently human 
health, could further aggravate economic and financial challenges in Europe and glob-
ally (OECD, 2020a).    

Environmental and climate emergency  

The European State of the Environment and Outlook report - SOER 2020 (European 
Environment Agency, 2019) states that in terms of scale and urgency Europe faces 
unprecedented environmental challenges. Without taking appropriate action, global 
environmental emergencies such as climate change and biodiversity loss could result 
in  social  and  economic  harms  far  greater  than  those  caused  by  COVID-19  (OECD, 
2020b).  

Political instabilities, migration pressures, and security threats (including cyber) 

Over the last decades global as well as EU’s geopolitical stability is being challenged 
by shifting economic powers (from West to East), diversification of security threats 
(e.g. from physical to cyber, space, and hybrid), growing powers of non-state actors 
(e.g. corporations, individuals), and increasing issues related to information genera-
tion and sharing, and the spreading of ‘fake news’ in social and other media (Joint 
Research Centre, 2018; European Commission, 2020a).   

How  might  the 
issue  develop  in 
future?  

In response to current and future shocks and to achieve resilience in Europe across 
the four dimensions (i.e. social and economic, geopolitical, green, and digital) the fol-
lowing key trends might occur that could affect the EU’s Zero pollution agenda: 

37 In this context disease reservoir is analogous to a water reservoir. But instead of supplying water, a disease reservoir serves as a 
supply for a virus or other pathogen. 
38 In this context vector is any living creature that can pass an infection to another living creature. 

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Increasing  recognition  of  the  role  and  importance  of  environmental  health  for 
achieving resilience of the EU to shocks and stresses 

While environmental issues were becoming top political priorities before COVID-19 
hit,  the  pandemic  may  highlight  their  importance  in  future  policy  making  (OECD, 
2020b). There is a recognition in academic as well as international and European po-
litical and public discourse that environmental challenges (e.g. air and chemical pollu-
tion, climate change, ecosystem and biodiversity loss) are driving and aggravating cur-
rent  and  future  health,  social,  and  economic  risks  (European  Commission,  2020; 
OECD, 2020a, 2020b; Pushkarev et al., 2019; European Society of Cardiology, forth-
coming; IPBES, 2020), consequently decreasing resilience of our societies against pre-
sent and future shocks.  

The future projections show that in absence of radical changes in production and con-
sumption systems current environmental challenges will only get worse. This is likely 
to  further  aggravate  health  resilience  issues  in  the  near  and  distant  future,  which 
could include increase in NCDs, more frequent outbreaks of pandemics and increased 
risk related to vector-borne diseases (in Europe most common are Lyme disease and 
tick-borne encephalitis). For example, recent research estimates that about 15% of 
deaths  globally,  and  about  19%  of  deaths  in  Europe  from  COVID-19  could  be  at-
tributed to long-term exposure to air pollution (European Society of Cardiology, 2020). 
Additionally, exposure to pollution (mainly ambient and outdoor air pollution but also 
other chemical pollutants) is one of the main risk factors related to the NCDs including 
cancer,  cardiovascular,  respiratory  and  neuro-developmental  diseases,  diabetes, 
premature death, as well as mental ill-health (Pushkarev et al., 2019; OECD, 2020b; 
World Health Organisation, 2017). Nearly two thirds of the 12.6 million deaths caused 
by the environmental factors each year are due to NCDs (World Health Organisation, 
2017). The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 23% of deaths globally 
could be prevented through healthier environments.  

At the same time, the underlying contributing factors to the emergence of pandemics, 
such as land-use change, agricultural expansion and intensification, and wildlife trade 
and consumption, are the same global environmental changes that drive biodiversity 
loss  and  climate  change  (IPBES,  2020).  Bringing  wildlife,  livestock,  and  people  into 
closer contact, they allow animal pathogens to move into people and lead to infec-
tions, occasionally outbreaks, and in rare cases to pandemics (IPBES, 2020). The OECD 
states that ‘enhancing environmental health through better air quality, water and san-
itation, waste management, along with efforts to safeguard biodiversity, will reduce 
the vulnerability of communities to pandemics and thus improve overall societal well-
being  and  resilience’  (OECD,  2020b).  Climate  change  and  related  extreme  weather 
events (e.g. heat waves) driving the migration and new and closer contact of people 
and wildlife are also one of the main factors related to outbreaks of vector-borne dis-
eases (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 2021). These infections 
are transmitted by the bite of infected arthropod species (vectors), such as mosqui-
toes, ticks, triatomine bugs, sandflies, and blackflies, which are especially sensitive to 
climatic factors with weather influencing not only their survival rates but also tem-
poral pattern of their activity (particularly biting rates) throughout the year (European 
Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 2021). 

In relation to economic resilience the need for a ‘new economic narrative’ in Europe 
and globally is calling for economic policymaking to go ‘beyond growth’ and alongside 
rising GDP consider wider set of objectives and measures of socio-economic progress 
including environmental sustainability (OECD, 2019; Stiglitz, 2019). This is reflected by 
concepts such as ‘doughnut economics’, which is a visual framework for sustainable 
development.  Shaped  like  a  doughnut  the  framework  combines  the  concepts  of 
planetary and complementary social boundaries(Raworth, 2012). In the future these 

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new economic concepts might become prevalent and one of the main elements of 
resilient Europe. The importance of moving towards a new economic approach has 
been emphasised in relation to economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. For the 
recovery to be lasting and to reduce the likelihood of future shocks, a return to ‘busi-
ness as usual’ and environmentally damaging investment patterns and activities must 
be avoided (OECD, 2020a). There is a call to ‘build back better’ with investments fo-
cused on transition to more inclusive and resilient societies with net-zero greenhouse 
gas (GHG) emissions and much reduced impacts on nature (OECD, 2020a). This is ech-
oed by the EU’s need to ‘bounce forward’ and putting twinning of green and digital 
transition supported by private and public investments which are in line with EU’s de-
carbonisation  and  sustainability,  inclusiveness  and  digitalisation  policy  goals  (e.g. 
clean and sustainable design, circular economy business models, cleaner mobility, sus-
tainable digitisation) at the heart of its social and economic recovery and green resili-
ence ambitions (European Commission, 2020a, 2021b).  

The importance and role of green resilience for the EU is further recognised not only 
in terms of recovery but also future competitiveness and growth based on ‘climate-
neutral, resource-efficient clean and circular economy’ as outlined in the 8th Environ-
ment Actin Programme to 2030 (European Commission, 2020c, 2020a). In order to 
achieve its green resilience ambitions including ‘reaching climate neutrality by 2050, 
while mitigating and adapting to climate change, reducing pollution and restoring the 
capacity of ecological systems to sustain our ability to live well within planetary bound-
aries (European Commission, 2020,p. 22), the EU is in short to long term future, among 
other things, planning to eliminate dependency on fossil fuels, develop a clean and 
circular  economy,  and  achieve  a  toxin-free  environment  (European  Commission, 
2020a). The European Green Deal, which is central to the EU’s transformative agenda 
as well as the EU’s Zero Pollution action plan also call for innovation and implementa-
tion  of  green  technologies,  notably  in  energy,  mobility,  and  food  sectors(European 
Commission,  2021b,  2019a).  The  2021-2027  multiannual  financial  framework  and 
NextGenerationEU seek to boost such investments and combat climate change, biodi-
versity loss, resource depletion and pollution in the EU and globally and with this ac-
tions obtain health gains for European and global population (European Commission, 
2021b). 

Tackling not only European but also global environmental challenges including climate 
change, might become a priority of the EU also in the context of its geopolitical resili-
ence.  There  is  evidence  suggesting  that  climate  change  leading  to  drought  and  ex-
treme weather events across the world is likely to be accompanied by increased cli-
mate-related  migration pressures and therefore increased geopolitical instability in 
Europe and globally (European Commission, 2019b). 

Better clean than green 

To achieve future resilience  ambitions, it is likely that the EUs’ focus over the next 
decade will be on recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. However, there is increasing ev-
idence that if not managed properly, dealing with the pandemic could lead to serious 
long-term environmental challenges. Efforts to tackle and control the COVID-19 pan-
demic have led to a sudden shift in values and priorities of governments, society and 
individuals where health is considered more important than addressing environmen-
tal challenges (Grodzińska-Jurczak et al., 2020; Patrício Silva et al., 2021). According to 
the  WHO,  the  pandemic  in  some  shape  or  form  is  likely  to  persist  for  a  long  time 
(France 24, 2020). However, a long-term shift in values as we are perhaps witnessing 
now, could aggravate existing environmental challenges and hinder the sustainability 
transition (Grodzińska-Jurczak et al., 2020).  

This is most obvious in relation to the changes in waste production and management 
to  ensure  health  needs  (Grodzińska-Jurczak  et  al.,  2020;  Patrício  Silva  et  al.,  2021; 

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Liang et al., 2021). The use of personal protective equipment (PPE39) by medical, as 
well as service and hospitality sectors and ordinary citizens (e.g. compulsory face mask 
coverings), and changes in people’s behaviour patterns (e.g. preferring plastic pack-
aging for hygiene and health reasons during the pandemic), have led to a rapid growth 
in generation of waste, notably medical 40 and plastic waste. This includes a rapid in-
crease in demand and use of single use plastic (SUP), which is particularly harmful for 
the environment and public health (Grodzińska-Jurczak et al., 2020; Patrício Silva et 
al., 2021; Liang et al., 2021). As during the pandemic in most countries the majority of 
medical, but also some household waste (e.g. PPE from ordinary citizens) is treated as 
infectious or mixed waste rather than recyclables, most of it is being incinerated or 
landfilled (Liang et al., 2021).  

In addition to waste, disinfection of public places (e.g. hospitals, universities, offices, 
airports) as well as use of alcohol based sanitisers has also been raising health and 
environmental concerns, including negative implications on fauna and flora and in-
creased risk of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and chance of other viral diseases to 
emerge (Mahmood et al., 2020; Patrício Silva et al., 2021). Building resilience to and 
treatment of other pressing health challenges (e.g. cancer, diabetes, heart and pul-
monary  dieses)  could  lead  to  increased  production,  use  and  disposal  of  medicines, 
resulting in increased amounts of pharmaceutical waste41. Drugs taken not only by 
humans but also animals can end up in rivers, lakes, ground water, soil, manure, and 
even drinking water (Owens, 2015). When released in the environment they can act 
like  endocrine-disrupting  chemicals  or  compounds  (EDCs)  and  have  devastating  ef-
fects on the environment, including human and animal health (Owens, 2015). Increase 
in pharmaceutical waste also increases the risk of AMR (Kraemer et al., 2019). 

Driven by worries of (re)infection, the COVID-19 pandemic could also slow the transi-
tion to sharing and circular economy.  

Digitalisation at the centre of EU’s resilience efforts  

Digitalisation of the economy and digital transition are at the centre of the EU’s cur-
rent and future resilience efforts far beyond the digital dimension of resilience (Euro-
pean  Commission,  2020a).  To  strengthen  social  and  economic  resilience  the  EU  is 
seeking to improve accessibility to digital infrastructure and services (including in rural 
areas  to  make  them  more  attractive),  increase  digital  literacy  (to  improve  employ-
ment opportunities), use digital technologies (e.g. artificial intelligence [AI] and high 
performance computing) for advances in healthcare (e.g. predict spread of diseases 
and development of vaccines, diagnostics and treatments), and strengthen digital ca-
pacities in the training and education sector.  

The EU’s capacity to set standards and support neighbouring countries in digital tran-
sition could contribute to its geopolitical resilience (European Commission, 2020a). In 
addition to all these developments, the need for readily available data to manage cur-
rent and prepare for future challenges was revealed during the pandemic (e.g. to build 
prediction  models  or  track  supply  and  demand  for  PPE)  (European  Commission, 
2020a), and is likely to push for further, more rapid implementation of digital technol-
ogies. Digital resilience of Europe might also be challenged by the increased risk of 

39 PPE includes single-use gloves, aprons and gowns, surgical masks, respirators and face protectors in the form of glasses, goggles or 

face shields.   

40 Medical waste includes waste generated from biomedical research institutions, medical institutions, and medical laboratories, as 

well as waste from dispersed sources. 
41 Pharmaceutical waste is any waste that contains medicinal drugs that are expired, unused, contaminated damaged or no longer 
needed (Business waste.co.uk.) 

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cyber-attacks and growing demand for critical raw materials (CRMs), which are essen-
tial  for  production  of  digital  technologies  (e.g.  graphite,  cobalt,  lithium  and  rare 
earths) supplied by non-EU countries.  

Increase in exploiting urban mines and expansion of mining industry in Europe 

To strengthen its geopolitical resilience, and to support the transition to carbon neu-
tral and digital society, the EU is increasingly aware of the necessity to reduce its de-
pendency on non-EU countries (e.g. China, Russia, Democratic Republic of Congo) for 
a range of critical raw  materials (CRMs). To address these challenges the EU might 
turn increasingly to urban mining42 and possibly expansion of the conventional mining 
industry in Europe (European Commission, 2020a). The EU ProSUM project concluded 
that urban mining could, over time, satisfy a large share of the EU’s demand for CRMs 
(Huisman et al., 2017). Additionally, mainly due to high production costs, environmen-
tal  standards,  and  public  acceptance  challenges,  Europe’s  own  mineral  sources  are 
currently underexploited (European Commission, 2020a). However, in light of its re-
source supply vulnerabilities and the future growth potential of its domestic mining 
sector, the EU may decide to increase investment in its mining capacities (European 
Commission, 2020a). 

Potential  implications 
for  the  EU’s  ability  to 
deliver a zero-pollution 
ambition 

In  response  to  under-
standing  and  recognis-
ing the role of environ-
mental  health  for  the 
well-being  and  resili-
ence  of  communities 
and societies, future re-
strategies 
silience 
could  lead  to  improve-
ment  and  stricter  im-
plementation  and  en-
forcement of EU and in-
ternational 
environ-
mental  and  pollution 
prevention 
strategies 
and laws.  

Development  and  im-
plementation of ‘green’ 
economic recovery and 
in-
resilience  policies 
cluding financial oppor-
tunities to boost green 
investments.  

Opportunities 

Risks 

(for  our  ability to  deliver  a  zero-pollu-
tion ambition) 

(to our ability to deliver a zero-pollu-
tion ambition) 

Decreased air, soil, and water pollution 
in the EU, contributing to the zero pol-
lution  2030  targets  for  air.  water  and 
soil quality.  

environmental  protection 
Lower 
standards  and  related  costs  in  third 
countries  may 
lead  to  ‘exporting’ 
some  polluting  activities  as  well  as 
emissions  and  waste  outside  the  EU 
thus  increasing  the  risk  of  pollution 
elsewhere  (e.g.  carbon  and  waste 
leakage).   This could hinder the EU’s 
zero pollution ambitions to fight pol-
lution  in  low-  and  middle-income 
countries  and  deliver  fairness  and 
equality. 

Policies and investments targeting, for 
example, sustainable business models, 
green energy and mobility, and sustain-
able  digital  products  and  solutions 
could  boost  the  circular  economy  and 
green  transition  thus  supporting  the 
EU’s  Zero  pollution  agenda  including 
strengthening the EU green, digital and 
economic leadership.   

While there is substantial support for 
“green”  technologies  and  industries 
in EU Member States, in many cases 
this is outweighed by ongoing support 
for “brown” activities that may lock-in 
emissions  intensive  pathways  (Euro-
pean Commission, 2020a). In the con-
text of the current health and conse-
quently economic crisis this might be 
even  more  likely  as  transitions  to 
greener  alternatives  can  be  consid-

42 Urban mining is the recovery of raw materials from urban waste.  In relation to CRMs this is primarily waste from electric and elec-
tronic equipment, vehicles and batteries. 

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Transition  to  sharing 
and  circular  economy 
and in this context par-
ticularly 
sustainable 
waste  management 
practices  are  being 
challenged  by  the  cur-
rent  response  and  ef-
forts to build resilience 
and control the COVID-
19 pandemic. 

ered  too  costly,  with  large  initial  in-
vestments and slow returns.   

There  are  pollution  risks  related  to, 
implementation  of 
for  example, 
‘green’  technologies  and  products 
such as electric cars throughout their 
entire life cycle. For example, batter-
ies  used  in  electrification  of  mobility 
are  mainly  lithium-based.  Extraction 
and disposal of lithium can, due to its 
toxic  properties  and  the  chemicals 
used to process it into a form that can 
be sold (e.g. hydrochloric acid), cause 
issues such as water, soil and air con-
tamination  and  consequently  health 
challenges by entering the food chain 
(Harper et al., 2019; Rapaport, 2019). 
These  challenges  could  hinder  the 
EU’s  ambitions  to  achieve  economic 
progress whilst reducing pollution.  

There is a risk that previous systems 
of (waste) classification, recycling and 
resource  recovery,  that  have  been 
put  ‘on  hold’  due  to  the  pandemic, 
will  not  be  restored  let  alone  en-
hanced for a long time (Patrício Silva 
et al., 2021). 

With  medical  and  municipal  solid 
waste  (MSW)  generated  being  con-
sidered  as  possibly  infectious  during 
COVID-19 pandemic, incineration and 
landfilling  are  being  prioritised  over 
recycling, which will result in a deteri-
oration of air quality in the medium- 
to  long-term  (Patrício  Silva  et  al., 
2021). Open burning of plastics waste 
can  also  release  other  hazardous 
chemicals such as heavy metals, PCBs, 
dioxins  and  furans,  which  are  linked 
to respiratory diseases (Patrício Silva 
et al., 2021).  

This  might  seriously  hinder 
the 
achievement  of  the  EU’s  zero  pollu-
tion ambitions, not only in relation to 
air quality objectives but can also fur-
ther  aggravate  pollution  from  SUP 
and  microplastic  (Grodzińska-Jurczak 
et al., 2020) and hinder the achieve-
ment  of  the  2030  objectives  in  rela-
tion to plastic litter at sea and micro-
plastic  released 
into  the  environ-
ment..  

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Increase in unsustaina-
ble  consumption  prac-
tices due to the COVID-
19 pandemic.      

Long-term dealing with 
current 
future 
and 
health crises could lead 
to increased release of 
into 
pharmaceuticals 
the environment. 

The  EU’s  reliance  on 
digital  technologies  for 
resilience  transition  is 
likely  to  affect  its  zero 
pollution ambition. 

Increased concerns and monitoring by 
pharmaceutical companies of environ-
mental risks and effects of their drugs 
in order to protect their reputations as 
well as the environment. For example, 
some  pharmaceutical  companies  al-
ready apply practices such as ‘ecophar-
macovigilance’  tracking  new  data  on 
the  environmental  effects  of  its  drugs 
to  keep  their  risk  assessments  up  to 
date  (Owens,  2015).  Such  practice 
could reinforce the importance of EU’s 
environmental  risk  assessment  (ERA) 
for  all  new  drugs,  and  contribute  to 
EU’s zero pollution ambitions and sup-
port actions as outlined in the Pharma-
ceutical Strategy for Europe (European 
Commission, 2020b).  

Digitalisation can support the EU’s zero 
pollution  ambition  by  substituting 
physical  products,  travel,  transport, 
and other services with digital solutions 
and  decreasing  pollution  (e.g.  air, 
noise,  water)  in  other  sectors  and  po-
tentially  even  enhance  energy  effi-
ciency.  Such solutions are explored in 
the 2021 Commission Staff Working Pa-
per Digital Solutions for Zero Pollution 
(European Commission, 2021a). 

There  is  risk  that  consumers  behav-
iour in the future will (continue to) be 
primarily  guided  by  (re)infection  ra-
ther  than  environmental  concerns. 
Additionally,  confinement  and  other 
restriction  measures  have  changed 
our consumption patterns (e.g. shop-
ping  online).  Changes  in  values  and 
ways we buy goods might lead to in-
creased pollution from packaging and 
plastic  waste  (Patrício  Silva  et  al., 
2021) hindering the EU zero pollution 
targets in relation to plastic as well as 
general waste . 

Increase in pharmaceutical waste and 
the  consequent  release  of  pharma-
ceuticals into the environment could 
hinder  the  EU’s  zero  pollution  ambi-
tion, in particular in relation to chem-
icals.    For  example,  while  cytostatic 
drugs  are  essential  part  of  cancer 
treatments,  they  may  negatively  af-
fect  the  environment.  They  stop  the 
growth and division of cells; when re-
leased  into  the  environment,  and 
they  can  affect  ecosystems  through 
altered fertility and increased genetic 
defects  (CYTOTHREAT,  2011;  Viegas 
et al., 2017). This could negatively af-
fect the EU’s zero pollution ambition 
to  protect  the  public  health  and  the 
ecosystems from negative effects re-
sulting  from  medicines  entering  the 
environment.   

Increased  waste  electric  and  elec-
tronic equipment (WEEE), GHG emis-
sions,  plastic  (single  use  plastic  and 
microplastic)  and  chemical  pollution 
(e.g. graphite, cobalt, lithium and rare 
earths)  from  growing  production, 
use/  operation  and  disposal of  short 
lived digital devices and the energy in-
tensive  infrastructure  they  rely  on. 
This could hinder the EU’s zero pollu-
tion  ambitions  in  relation  to  plastic, 
general  and  hazardous  waste,  and 
chemical  exposure  due  to  increased 
waste  management  needs  of  this 
waste stream (Perkins et al., 2014).       

Increase  in  uptake  of 
urban  mining  to 
im-
prove resource security 
could  encourage  the 

Urban mining can be one way to source 
scarce sources closer to where they are 
needed than through traditional supply 
chains (Mellen, 2021). Uptake of urban 

Recovery  of  some  metals,  especially 
from  complex  products,  could  be 
challenging  in  terms  of  energy  con-
sumption and related GHG emissions, 

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EU’s transition to circu-
lar economy.  

mining  could  therefore  lead  to  de-
creased air, soil, and water pollution re-
lated to conventional mining activities 
and support the EU’s zero pollution am-
bition.  

as  well  as  chemical  pollution  related 
to  potentially  toxic  metals  (e.g.  lith-
ium,  cobalt)  (Mellen,  2021;  Nast, 
2018).  

interest 

Increased 
in 
conventional mining in-
dustry  in  Europe  could 
hinder  EU’s  zero  pollu-
tion ambition.43 

Risks of air, water, soil, and chemical 
pollution related to increased mining 
activities in Europe.  

Timeframe 
emergence  

of 

Uncertainties 

This issue is seen and is increasingly emerging in the short-term, and the EU resilience 
strategies are also likely to affect the EU’s zero pollution ambition in the medium to 
long-term.  

It is hard to say how long the COVID-19 crisis will persist and develop; however, there 
is  increasing  evidence  that  institutional,  business  and  consumer’s  actions  taken  to 
control it could have significant medium- to long-term effects on pollution in Europe.  

It is uncertain how EU policies will develop and what actions will be taken to achieve 
resilience of Europe in the future and how will they affect and interact with Europe’s 
zero pollution ambitions. It is also not clear how prioritising a certain dimension of 
resilience in response to the most pressing shocks and challenges the EU might face 
at any given time could affect the distribution of pollution across different sectors (e.g. 
health, travel, transport, production and consumption) as well as the zero pollution 
ambition overall.  

In the more short-term, it is not clear how long the COVID-19 pandemic will persist 
and what actions will be taken by the EU and the EU Member States and what capac-
ities (e.g. institutional, knowledge, infrastructure) they will have to deal with increas-
ing pollution in some waste streams (e.g. SUP, medical waste, plastic) related to the 
health emergency. The response of consumers to persisting and future resilience chal-
lenges is also uncertain. It might be that over time, environmental concerns prevail.  

While digitalisation proved to be a key factor in mitigating the negative economic and 
to some extent social effects of the COVID-19 crisis, it is unclear how increased de-
pendency on digital technologies (especially in light of existing pollution and security 
challenges) could influence the EU’s zero pollution, and green and geopolitical resili-
ence agendas.  

Additional 
re-
search  or  evi-
dence  that  may 
be needed 

There is a need to better understand how the EU’s push for resilience is likely to inter-
act with the EU’s zero pollution and other ambitions (e.g. environment, health, safety, 
digital) and international policy objectives (e.g. United Nations Sustainable Develop-
ment Goals).   

While the topic is gaining increasing recognition and attention, there is a need to bet-
ter understand the role of environmental health and pollution with regards to the sta-
bility and resilience of other systems including economic, social and health sectors.    

While the fundamental links between human health and the health of the biosphere, 
including the quality of ecosystems and biodiversity, are increasingly acknowledged 
(Pushkarev et al., 2019), the focus of current research is on how the environment af-
fects human health.  There is a need to improve the understanding of how dealing 
with pressing (i.e. COVID-19 pandemic) and increasing heath challenges (e.g. cancer, 
diabetes, obesity) is affecting the environment in terms of pollution (but also other 

43 The EU’s interest in deep seas as well as space mining were discussed in FORENV Final report of 2019-20 annual cy-
cle : emerging - economic, business, technological and social - innovations in the green economy of the future, Issue 10: 
Moving beyond land boundaries for the green economy of the future  

February 2022  110 

 
 
 
 
 
 
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environmental challenges) and how is this likely to evolve in the future. It is also im-
portant to better understand how dealing with other challenges and crises (e.g. eco-
nomic, social, geopolitical) could affect the environment and zero pollution ambition. 
The 2008 financial crisis could be a good example for ‘lessons learned’. The required 
application of the ‘do no significant harm’44 assessment to every measure included in 
EU  Member  States’  National  Recovery  and  Resilience  Plans  (NRRPs)  to  access  the 
funds  available  to  through  Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility  might  lead  to  better 
knowledge and understanding of how resilience actions can affect pollution and envi-
ronment in general.  

As also recognised by the EU’s Action Plan: 'Towards Zero Pollution for Air, Water and 
Soil' (European Commission, 2021, p. 2), there is a ‘need for a better integrated view 
of pollution for public and private actors to tackle connected pollution issues across 
space and time and address their interplay with other environmental, social and eco-
nomic considerations as effectively as possible in their policy, investment and purchase 
decisions’. 

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Challenges and recommendations’, Chemical Engineering Journal 405, p. 126683 (DOI: 
10.1016/j.cej.2020.126683). 

Perkins, D. N., et al., 2014, ‘E-Waste: A Global Hazard’, Annals of Global Health 80(4), 
pp. 286-295 (DOI: 10.1016/j.aogh.2014.10.001). 

Pushkarev, N., et al., 2019, ‘EU Public Health Policies. State of Play, current and future 
challenges’, , p. 52. 

Rapaport,  L.,  2019,  ‘Lithium  from  electronic  waste  can  contaminate  water  supply’, 
Reuters,  18  December  2019  (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-water-lith-
ium-idUSKBN1YM2JW) accessed 5 July 2021. 

Raworth, K., 2012, A safe and just space for humanity- Can we live within the dough-
nut?,  Oxfam  Discussion  Papers  (https://primarysources.brillonline.com/browse/hu-
man-rights-documents-online/a-safe-and-just-space-for-humanity-can-we-live-
within-the-doughnut;hrdhrd98240069) accessed 27 July 2021, Koninklijke Brill NV. 

Stiglitz, J. E., 2019, Rewriting the rules of the European Economy, Foundation for Eu-
ropean Progressive Studies. 

Viegas, S., et al., 2017, ‘Forgotten public health impacts of cancer – an overview’, Ar-
chives  of  Industrial  Hygiene  and  Toxicology  68(4),  pp.  287-297  (DOI:  10.1515/aiht-
2017-68-3005). 

environmental 

World Health Organisation, 2017, Preveniting noncomunicable diseases (NCDs) bt re-
duceing 
factors 
(http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/han-
dle/10665/258796/WHO-FWC-EPE-17.01-
eng.pdf;jsessionid=45734DED5E5FDA2209DA256B92EE23C8?sequence=1)  accessed 
26 July 2021. 

risk 

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Issue 9: Will new innovations in synthetic biology emerge that accelerate pollution reduction 
and mitigation? 

Emerging 
is-
sue  descrip-
tion 

Key  drivers: 
what  is  driv-
ing  the  emer-
gence  of  this 
issue? 

Humans have been trying to alter genomes and harness the power of microorganisms for 
various desired purposes for thousands of years, eventually leading to the discovery of 
DNA in the 1950’s. Since then, DNA sequencing and genetic engineering have become 
established fields, underpinned by decades of research. However, with recent scientific 
discoveries and technological advances it is now possible for scientists not only to read 
DNA and transfer genes or traits from one organism to another, but also to assemble and 
write entirely new sequences of DNA and genomes (not already present in nature). This 
has led to the emergence of synthetic biology (SynBio) (EEA, 2020; European Commission, 
2014).  

The Convention on Biological Diversity defines SynBio as ‘a further development and new 
dimension of modern biotechnology that combines science, technology, and engineering 
to  facilitate  and  accelerate  the  understanding,  design,  redesign,  manufacture  and/or 
modification of genetic materials, living organisms and biological systems’ (CBD, 2016; 
SCENIHR, 2015).  SynBio is a multidisciplinary field that enables scientists to have greater 
control over genetic systems and to program organisms/biological systems (such as mi-
crobes) to perform a variety of novel specialised functions (Trump, 2020).  

The field of synthetic biology is attracting increased attention from investors, regulators, 
and citizens for its potential to help solve pressing global challenges (e.g. linked to health 
and the environment) but also for the significant uncertainties and related risks it pre-
sents. Such uncertainties include the unintended consequences of creating and deploying 
novel biological systems into the environment (El Karoui et al., 2019; Trump et al., 2020; 
Voigt, 2020; Dvořák et al., 2017; European Commission 2014).  

This issue explores how new  innovations in SynBio might impact (positively and nega-
tively) the EU’s ability to deliver a zero-pollution ambition, focusing on emerging SynBio 
technologies that could be applied along the zero-pollution pyramid of action i.e. for the 
prevention,  minimisation  and  control,  and  elimination  and  remediation  of  pollution, 
along with the regeneration of contaminated sites.  

Technological advances and decreasing costs  
Recent advances in computing capabilities, Big Data, machine learning and artificial intel-
ligence act as key drivers of SynBio innovations. Synthetic biologists can now process and 
understand increasingly large amounts of genetic information, which in turn  improves 
modelling of biological systems. The use of machine learning and artificial intelligence to 
analyse large genetic datasets is also expected to help optimise the design of synthetic 
biological products (El Karoui et al., 2019). Moreover, key tools used to develop SynBio 
applications are become increasingly accessible to larger numbers of researchers. For ex-
ample, the costs of DNA sequencing and synthesis have decreased dramatically over the 
past years (Rylott et al., 2020), as the price for synthesising one base pair of DNA was of 
USD 10 (EUR 8) in the early 2000’s and has now dropped to USD 0.9 (EUR 0.7) (Green-
fieldboyce,  2019).  In  addition,  several  private  companies  in  the  USA  are  starting  to 
emerge  (e.g.  Twist  Bioscience)  whose  business  model  is  to  synthesise  and  sell  custom 
DNA sequences, which can then be inserted into bacteria, yeast, fungi or mammalian cells 
for SynBio applications (Cumber, 2020; Zaleski, 2018).  

Environmental pressures  
The need for innovative solutions to pressing global challenges, notably the environmen-
tal crisis, is another key driver for SynBio innovations (Ajibade et al., 2021). Many SynBio 
applications are developed with the aim of producing more sustainable products and/or 
to help monitor, detect, and remediate pollution (see implications section below).  

Political priorities and funding 
As applications of synthetic biology could offer news ways of addressing environmental 
pressures (see implications section below), it resonates with multiple international, EU 

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and national policy initiatives (e.g., the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals 
and the European Green Deal). This includes the ‘zero pollution vision for 2050’, whose 
aim is to reduce air, water and soil pollution to levels that are not considered harmful to 
health  or  natural  ecosystems.  There  are  therefore  numerous  funding  opportunities  to 
advance research in the field, which will contribute to driving innovations forward. For 
example, the European Commission has already funded projects related to synthetic bi-
ology, notably under Horizon 2020, and there are currently open calls for proposals in the 
field (e.g., in June 2021 a call for proposals for projects working on Engineered Living Ma-
terials was published under the European Innovation Council’s (EIC) Pathfinder funding 
programme (European Commission, 2021a)).  

As SynBio tools are becoming easier and cheaper to use, we can expect an increase and 
more widespread applications of SynBio technologies in the future.  

In the short term, this will likely entail an increase in the SynBio technologies that are 
already available or will soon become available on the market. These more advanced Syn-
Bio technologies use genetically engineered cells to produce biobased products or biofu-
els more efficiently. Biobased products/fuels are products that are wholly or partly de-
rived  from  materials  of  biological  origin,  using  the  process  of  fermentation  where  en-
zymes and microbes transform renewable sources (e.g., corn, soy, sugar cane) to produce 
the desired output – this process is used as a replacement of traditional chemical synthe-
sis (European Commission, 2021b). Examples of biobased products/fuels include bio-plas-
tics, bio-petroleum, bio-petrochemicals, and biobased insulin. While the use of enzymes 
and microbes to produce biobased alternatives to certain products/fuels is not new, the 
process is currently slow and not cost effective. In addition, it can lead to some undesir-
able environmental effects linked to the production of biological feedstocks, and the CO2 
emissions  and  some  of  the  chemicals  used  during  the  process  of  fermentation  (EPA, 
2021).  

Emerging SynBio technologies, however, use microbes and enzymes that have been ge-
netically engineered to (1) produce chemicals/materials that they would not have other-
wise been able to produce in nature (e.g., acrylic), and (2) to be more efficient in trans-
forming renewable resources (e.g., producing more with less resources) – and thus po-
tentially mitigating some of the current undesirable effects of biobased products/fuels 
(Voigt, 2020; Biotechnology Innovation Organisation). 

In the more long-term, we might see the deployment and use of other types of SynBio 
technologies, where the engineered cells are no longer tools for production but products 
themselves. Numerous applications are currently under development but limited to la-
boratory  settings until  they  can  overcome  key  uncertainties  and  barriers.  Examples  of 
these potential future SynBio technologies include:  

• 

• 

The use of engineered cells to create dynamic and responsive materials, such as self-
healing concrete (Tang et al., 2021) (see also Issue 2 on regenerative materials). Using 
SynBio methods living systems can be incorporated into inorganic components and 
programmed to have certain functions such as self-regeneration or remodelling in 
response to environmental cues (Tang et al., 2021). An example of this is the use of 
bacteria or enzymes that are incorporated into concrete and that have been engi-
neered to produce limestone or calcium carbonate crystals to fill cracks when they 
encounter humidity or CO2 (Peters, 2021). This is an emerging field of research which 
still faces many uncertainties (notably scalability), but which might further develop 
in the future.  
The use of engineered cells to create biosensors. Cell-based biosensors use SynBio 
methods to create cells capable of detecting and producing a response to a specific 
molecule of interest (Hicks et al., 2019) and could be used to detect pollutants in soil 
and water or detect certain pathogens in humans. For example, synthetic biologists 

February 2022  115 

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the  issue  de-
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in  fu-
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• 

have been able to engineer microorganisms to become fluorescent in the presence 
of chemicals/toxins in municipal water (Jung et al., 2020). 
The use of engineered cells for bioremediation. Bioremediation refers to the method 
of using or deliberately introducing microorganisms which breakdown and consume 
pollutants in the environment to clean up a polluted site. Although this is not a new 
technique, SynBio has great potential to help develop more efficient and tailor-made 
microbes for bioremediation that can break down heterogeneous types of pollutants 
dispersed over large areas (Rylott et al., 2020). The application of SynBio to the field 
of bioremediation is, however, still in its infancy. Examples of techniques under de-
velopment include the creation of synthetic jellyfish that can absorb toxic chemicals 
in the water following a toxic spill. These jellyfish are being designed to avoid repli-
cation and programmed to die after a certain time, with the aim of being released in 
great numbers into the environment, performing their bioremediation task, and then 
disintegrating and disappearing from the ecosystem (Rusten, 2019; CSIRO). 

Overall, it is difficult to predict how the field of SynBio will evolve as it is contingent on 
overcoming  key  uncertainties  (see  uncertainties  section  below).  In  addition,  given  the 
high risks/high benefits linked to SynBio, these technologies will require the right regula-
tory framework which ensures adequate safeguards without stifling innovation. Despite 
the potential of some of these technologies, they may never be deployed outside of la-
boratories if they are not able to pass risk assessments or gain public acceptance.  

implica-

Potential 
tions 
for  the  EU’s  ability 
to  deliver  a  zero-
pollution ambition 

More  efficient  and 
pro-
sustainable 
of 
duction 
bi-
obased 
products 
and biofuels by ge-
netically  engineer-
ing  and  enhancing 
the  microbes  used 
transform  re-
to 
newable sources of 
carbon  and  energy 
(e.g.,  corn,  sugar 
cane, or cellulose).   

More  efficient  use 
of  waste,  by-prod-
ucts and renewable 
sources 

Synthetic  gas  fer-
mentation  can  de-
velop  carbon  recy-
cling or carbon cap-
ture utilisation 

Opportunities 
(for our ability to deliver a zero-pol-
lution ambition) 

Risks 
(to our ability to deliver a zero-pollution am-
bition) 

SynBio  could  help  reduce  the  envi-
ronmental  drawbacks  linked  to  the 
production  of  biobased  products 
and  biofuels  by  engineering  mi-
crobes  to  be  more  efficient  and  to 
produce  more  using  less  resources. 
In  the  future,  this  could  help  boost 
the  market  for  alternative  biofuel 
production  technologies  and  make 
biobased products/fuel viable alter-
natives  to  more  toxic  and  polluting 
products based on fossil fuels.   

Sources  of  carbon  and  energy  used 
in the production of biofuels and bi-
ochemicals  can  be  derived  from 
waste and by-products, thus contrib-
uting to waste recovery.  

Syngas  fermentation  (Syngas)  is  a 
synthetic process in which a mixture 
of gases is used as carbon or energy 
sources,  which  are  subsequently 
converted  into  ethanol  and  other 
chemicals  by  microorganisms  (Phil-
lips et al., 2017). Syngas can turn pol-
lutants  such  as  waste  CO2  from  in-
dustry directly into biofuels. 

- Persistent risks of increased air, water and 
soil pollution from nutrients, pesticides, and 
sediment used for the food crops that would 
still be necessary to produce biobased prod-
ucts and biofuels. It will be necessary to con-
duct  full  life-cycle  assessments  of  these 
products  and  compare  them  against  other 
more  environmentally  friendly  alternatives 
to fossil fuels.  

The increased use of SynBio for the produc-
tion  of  biobased  fuels  and  products,  might 
drive  significant  land-use  change  towards 
feedstock production which may have nega-
tive  impacts  on  biodiversity  and  conserva-
tion. In addition, increased demand for new 
sources of energy (to be converted into bio-
fuels), such as algae and seaweed, could en-
croach on traditional uses of these resources 
and  lead  to  environmental  harm  (SCHEER, 
2021).  

- Although the engineered cells used to pro-
duce  biobased  products/fuels  are  not  in-
tended  for  release  into  the  environment, 
there  are  still  risks  of  accidental  release  of 
these  organisms  with  possible  severe  unin-
tended  consequences  for  ecosystems  –  in-
cluding (persistent) invasion or disruption of 
food webs.  

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- Risks of increased bio and chemical waste 
linked  to  the  production  of  the  engineered 
cells. 

Biobased alternatives to chemicals also rely 
of  microbes  that  transform  renewable 
sources of energy such as corn, soy or sugar 
cane.  As  above,  there  are  environmental 
risks  to  such  processes  which  can  lead  to 
CO2 emissions and soil and water pollution.  

Risks  of  accidental  release  of  engineered 
cells  in  the  environment,  including  (persis-
tent) invasion or disruption of food webs.  

Risks  of  increased  bio  and  chemical  waste 
linked  to  the  production  of  the  engineered 
cells, along with the risk of exposure to toxic 
chemical (e.g., CMR/PBT/PMT) 

There are risks of unintended consequences 
of  releasing  new  or  re-designed  organisms 
within  the  environment.  It  is  difficult  to 
model  how  these  organisms  will  interact 
with and impact native pollutions – thus po-
tentially  leading  to  biodiversity  loss  or  the 
transfer  or  synthetic  genetic  material  to 
other organisms.  

In  addition,  the  process  of  creating  genet-
ically engineered organisms can itself lead to 
increased  biowaste  and  hazardous  waste, 
notably as chemicals and solvents are neces-
sary to synthetise DNA (Kelesoglu, 2018).    

Development of bi-
alterna-
obased 
tives 
certain 
to 
(e.g., 
chemicals 
acrylic). 

More  resilient  ma-
terials  (e.g.,  self-
healing concrete).  

Better tools for pol-
lution 
detection 
and  monitoring, 
e.g.  through  cell-
based  biosensors 
that can detect the 
presence  of  micro-
pollutants.  

New  tools  for  re-
pollu-
mediating 
tion  

SynBio can help create renewable bi-
obased chemicals, thus contributing 
to the chemical strategy for sustain-
ability. Microbes that meet the crite-
ria to produce biobased alternatives 
to certain chemicals are not  always 
found  in  nature,  with  SynBio  tech-
nology it is now possible to redesign 
natural  microbes  to  achieve  these 
goals (Biotechnology Innovation Or-
ganisation).  

Dynamic  and  responsive  materials 
might  help  reduce  waste  in  the  fu-
ture and reduce the pollution linked 
to the production of materials by re-
ducing  the  need  for  repairs.  This 
could be particularly beneficial in the 
construction sector which is respon-
sible for over  35% of the EU’s total 
waste  generation  (European  Com-
mission, 2021c).  

Cell-based  biosensors  may  help  im-
prove water and soil pollution by in-
creasing  knowledge  and  data.  They 
have several advantages over tradi-
tional  pollution  detection  methods 
including  cost,  portability,  and  do 
not  require  equipment  or  trained 
personnel to be deployed and used 
(Hicks et al., 2019).  

More efficient and cost-effective bi-
oremediation of polluted sites by us-
ing  synthetically  engineered  mi-
crobes/organism  that  can  degrade 
chemicals and remove heavy metals 
(EEA, 2020).  

Timeframe  of 
emergence  

Although there are  examples of specific SynBio technologies commercially available in 
different sectors and many successful experiments in laboratories (Voigt, 2020), the more 
widespread availability and use of SynBio products and technologies, especially those in-
volve the release of new organisms into the environment, remains a medium to long-
term prospects with many uncertainties.  

Some  sources  estimate  that  SynBio  will  become  a  prominent  field  in  five  to  ten  years 
(Warner et al., 2020), while others believe that a fifteen-year timescale is more realistic 
for entirely new synthetically modified products to be on the market (Parks et al., 2017).  

Uncertainties 

Testing technologies before deployment 

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Science still has critical knowledge gaps on how nature works, and ecosystems interact. 
It is therefore very difficult to apply the design/build/test/learn cycles used in conven-
tional engineering to SynBio applications (El Karoui et al., 2019). In addition, laboratory 
settings can never fully reproduce highly complex and dynamic ecosystems to control for 
all possible consequences of the release of new biological systems into the environment 
and how these might evolve over time and in different contexts. For example, if autono-
mous artificial cells are created in the future, the genetic information that controls their 
internal functioning might mutate and lead to emergence of new organisms. This renders 
the process of testing SynBio applications extremely difficult and will require the devel-
opment of rigorous evaluation and risk assessments models both by synthetic biologists 
themselves and by regulators (Warner et al., 2020). 

Scalability 

There are also issues of scalability for a more widespread use of beneficial SynBio appli-
cations. Although many laboratories can now build complex genetic networks hosted in 
a variety of cells, this remains a slow and difficult iterative process of trial and error (El 
Karoui et al., 2019). We are still far from being able to achieve a mass production of syn-
thetically engineered cells.    

Efficiency 

The efficiency of certain SynBio technologies is also uncertain, for example when it comes 
to the accuracy of cell-based biosensors in different types of environments (Hicks et al., 
2019). In addition, it is still unclear whether and how engineered cells will survive outside 
of laboratory settings if they were to be deployed for uses in the environment.  

Regulatory uncertainties 

The regulatory framework surrounding SynBio will play a key role in how the field devel-
ops and whether and how future SynBio products can be deployed. Legislation on envi-
ronmental safety and approvals and legislation surrounding the release of organisms into 
the environment may need to be updated to adapt developments in the field as it may 
not be able to properly cover all novel aspects of SynBio (e.g., developments in cell-free 
applications of SynBio) (Trump, 2020). Finding the right balance between safeguarding 
against high potential risks and enabling beneficial R&D and innovation will prove chal-
lenging (Parks et al., 2017). Linked to this, the development of international agreements 
on common standards and red lines across the field will also be crucial for future devel-
opments.  

Social acceptability 
SynBio technologies could prove controversial among the general public due to ethical 
concerns and perceived risks (Parks et al., 2017). Several scientific research papers in the 
field mention engagement with regulators and the general public as a critical factor to 
enable further development and applications of the SynBio technology (El Karoui et al., 
2019, Trump et al., 2020, Warner et al., 2020).  

Additional re-
search  or  evi-
that 
dence 
may 
be 
needed 

Additional research and studies are needed on: 
•  How natural microbial communities evolve, survive, interact, and transfer genetic in-
formation among each other to increase understanding of how synthetic organisms 
could evolve and interact with native populations once released into the environ-
ment (Trump et al., 2020). 

•  How to design appropriate risk assessment frameworks before the deployment of 

SynBio technologies (Trump, 2020).  

•  How to ensure appropriate monitoring and surveillance mechanisms of the SynBio 

• 

• 

organisms once deployed. 
Life-cycle assessments of SynBio technologies, notably over the chemicals used to 
synthesise DNA and potential biowaste generated during production.  
In the same vein, further research is needed to understand the impacts of synthetic 
biology  organisms  against  the  impacts  of  alternative  actions  (including  no  action) 

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Rylott, E. and Bruce, N. (2020), ‘How synthetic biology can help bioremediation’, Current 
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February 2022  120 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Issue 10: Our growing digital consumption could challenge the ‘zero pollution’ ambition 

Emerging 
description 

issue 

Digital tools and services are playing an increasing role in our lives, allowing people to 
connect with others using video and images or to experience the natural environment 
or go on holiday without the need for travel (i.e. via augmented or virtual reality). 
Digital tools are providing greater efficiencies and less pollution through ‘virtual life-
style services’ in a number of sectors, ranging from retail and e-commerce (e.g. Ama-
zon, ApplePay) to shared mobility (e.g. Car2Go, Moovel, Mytaxi). Increasingly, con-
sumers are looking to access more products and services via the internet, and compa-
nies are reinventing their business models by embracing digital technologies to meet 
this demand. As digital tools and services create a step-change in digital interactions 
in both business-to-business and business-to-customer activities, the distinction is in-
creasingly blurred between the physical and virtual world, and between humans, ma-
chines and nature, with implications for social values and policy frameworks (Euro-
pean Commission, 2020).  

Our  growing  digital  media  consumption,  accelerated  by  the  pandemic,  has  been 
linked to a significant rise in greenhouse gas emissions and environmental pollution. 
The rapid development and advancement of digital technologies to keep users con-
nected  (and  increasingly  multi  or  hyperconnected)  is  increasing  the  environmental 
footprint of digital devices driven by a rapid expansion of digital networks and infra-
structure, and the ‘collective usage’ of the digital services these provide (Priest et al., 
2019). As digital media consumption increases (e.g. through videoconferencing, vir-
tual learning, e-commerce) so does the number of online services and applications 
they use. While there are improvements in the energy efficiency of data centres, net-
works and devices, these efficiency gains tend to be counteracted by systemic feed-
back effects – i.e. the so-called ‘re-bound effect’, where greater demand for compu-
ting power, storage capacities, data transmissions and devices per person is under-
mining overall efficiency gains and raising concern about the overall environmental 
impacts of the sector over coming decades (Hilty and Bieser, 2017). 

Digital actions that drive environmental impacts are influenced by many actors in the 
‘digital  ecosystem’  (e.g.  users,  data  centres,  cloud  and  internet  service  providers), 
making it complex to quantify the direct, indirect and systemic impacts of our ‘digital 
footprint’ (Royal Society, 2020; Liu et al., 2019). A recent Swiss study estimated the 
environmental impacts of digital media consumption of young people, aged between 
12 and 25 years, and found that 78% of the overall impact is caused by the ownership 
of end user devices (e.g. mobile phones, tablets, laptops, desktop computers and/or 
television devices). Data processing and storage in data centres was responsible for 
15% of the impacts, and is negligible for most digital actions, except for watching tel-
evision (13%) and videos. The direct electricity demand of the end user devices is re-
sponsible for 5% of the total impact, while data transfer from the end user devices to 
the data centre and across the internet is negligible (Rene et al., 2019).  

The rise in ownership of digital devices is adding to the growing quantity of products 
entering the waste electronic and electrical equipment (WEEE) stream, which is in-
creasing on average by 3 to 4 % annually due to shorter product lifecycles and limited 
repair and recycling options (O’Sullivan, 2021; WEEE Forum and ITU, 2020). The Euro-
pean Commission (2021) sets out a framework for using digital solutions to achieve 
its zero pollution ambitions, noting the need for digital technologies to be deployed 
sustainably and for rebound effects to be avoided and addressed. There is, however, 
a need for more research on the environmental impacts of digital technologies, spe-
cifically linked to pollution (e.g. use of resources, water consumption, land use and 
biodiversity), to compliment prevailing evidence on the energy (and related climate) 
impacts. This could help raise awareness among individuals and companies about the 
disproportionate environmental impacts of digital consumption across the whole ‘dig-
ital ecosystem’, and also the interdependencies between direct and indirect impacts, 
for instance when efficiency gains enabled by greening digital technologies do not off-
set the resource and energy consumption impacts associated with the growing use of 
digital media devices to, for example, browse the internet, stream videos and shop 
online.   

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Since the proportion of an individual’s environmental footprint associated with con-
suming digital media is typically small, there is very little agency or pressure to change 
(Obringer et al., 2021). As such, regulation may be needed to achieve greater trans-
parency about the environmental footprint of digital products to encourage more sus-
tainable digital practice and behaviour (Travers, 2021; Obringer et al., 2021). The prin-
ciple  of  ‘digital  sobriety’  –  using  the  internet  and  digital  technologies  (e.g. 
smartphones, tablets) in a more ‘mindful’ and responsible way as opposed to cutting 
it out altogether could help to chart a pathway towards the EU’s twin green and digital 
transition policy goals, but this requires a more systemic approach that targets users, 
digital service providers and regulators (The Shift Project, 2019).   
• 
The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the growth of two global trends: the in-
creasing role of digital technologies across multiple sectors, and support for digital 
technologies  to  play  a  role  in  transitions  to  sustainability.  The  pandemic  has  high-
lighted the importance of the link between these global trends, whereby a sharp rise 
in use of digital technologies across numerous sectors is increasing their negative en-
vironmental externalities (e.g. energy consumption a pollution impacts), associated 
with a parallel increase in the development and advancement of digital networks and 
infrastructure.  

Increasing role of digital technologies  

• 
The adoption of digital technologies and online services is increasing in a number of 
industries (e.g. education, health, tourism and retail), and the pandemic has led to a 
sharp  rise  in  the  use  of  internet  and  internet-based  services.  This  trend  is  likely  to 
exacerbate  the  internet’s  environmental  footprint  (e.g.  carbon  emissions,  resource 
depletion, water consumption, land use and biodiversity impacts) despite ongoing ef-
forts  to  improve  the  efficiency  of  data  centres  and  reduce  reliance  on  fossil  fuels 
(Masanet et al., 2020; Obringer et al., 2021). For example, in the digital health sector 
precision medicine is driving the physical activity and sleep devices market, where the 
use of health apps and Internet of Things (IoT) health-care devices is increasing data 
traffic and storage (Elmeligi, 2018). Similarly, companies are increasing their purchase 
of ICT equipment and services with a growing number of devices connected to cloud 
infrastructure and cellular networks resulting in higher data traffic and storage. 
• 
The rise in digital technologies will also increase metal consumption and disposal 
of  ‘hard-to-recycle’  digital  devices,  which  contributes  to  greenhouse  gas  emissions 
and soil pollution (The Shift Project, 2019). Alongside the growth of digital sectors, the 
pandemic has accelerated digital media consumption (e.g. video and audio conferenc-
ing) with a parallel increase in the development of digital networks and infrastructure 
(e.g. bandwidth expansion, data centres, network equipment and software that lev-
erages cloud services) to cope with the surge in internet traffic (Akala, 2020). This has 
increased awareness of the environmental footprint of the internet and the need to 
identify individual and collective actions that most affect its growth (Obringer et al., 
2021).  

A twin green and digital transition approach 

The  2020  Environment  Council  report  recognises  the  benefits  of  digitalisation  in 
achieving the goals of the European Green Deal, and affirms the Commission’s twin 
green and digital transition approach as a necessary pathway towards economic re-
covery after the Covid-19 pandemic. The report stresses the need for an inclusive dig-
ital transition to simultaneously exploit opportunities of digital technologies while lim-
iting and avoiding the negative environmental impacts (Council of the European Un-
ion, 2020).  

As governments plan their economic recovery from the pandemic, there will undoubt-
edly be a focus on long-term environmental sustainability with a role for digital tech-
nologies and data-driven tools to monitor environmental risks and opportunities. For 
example, the adoption of sensor technologies in industries, in smart cities, on farms 
and in our homes, 5G combined with artificial intelligence has the potential to im-
prove the efficiency and sustainability of Europe’s society and economy.  

February 2022  122 

Key drivers: what 
the 
is  driving 
emergence 
of 
this issue? 

 
 
 
 
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However, the rapid rate of expansion and advancement of digital technologies, net-
works and infrastructure is driving an increase in their negative environmental exter-
nalities (The Shift Report, 2019), requiring a reversal of the rising energy and resource 
(e.g.  material,  land,  water)  consumption  of  digital  technologies  and  infrastructure 
while, at the same time, ensuring they are available for applications to drive climate 
and pollution action, health, sustainability and resilience of Europe’s society and econ-
omy (European Commission, 2020).  

Online activities such as cloud computing, streaming services and cashless payment 
systems  have  significantly  increased  during  the  pandemic.  This  trend  has  led  to  a 
sharp rise in the use of internet and internet-based services, systems and networks, 
with significant changes in our individual (and collective) usage patterns and usage 
behaviour (De et al., 2020). For example, growth in the use of digital tools and services 
has significantly increased in the education sector, where the introduction of ‘immersive 
virtual classrooms’ (e.g. simulation games and dynamic video and graphic content) 
has  helped  to  improve  interaction  between  students  and  teachers,  and  is  likely  to 
continue in the short-term (i.e. now to 5 years) as we emerge from the pandemic (Dias 
et al, 2019). Similarly, the consumption of digital devices in sectors such as energy is 
allowing consumers to make more informed choices (e.g. smart meters, digital apps 
estimating  individual  environmental  footprint  and  contributing  to  greater  environ-
mental awareness) and energy efficiency gains (EEA Scientific Committee, 2021). 

Greater internet traffic through mobile networks and devices will require data pro-
cessing power and high-capacity networks (e.g. 5G) to support data transmission. This 
has  environmental  implications  as  newer  generations  of  wireless  technologies  are 
more energy efficient than earlier ones (e.g. 5G antennas consume less energy than 
4G), but 5G has a shorter operating range and, therefore, requires denser networks 
for the growing number of connected devices, thus leading to an overall growth in 
energy consumption, at least in the short-term following initial deployment (Frenger 
and Tano, 2019; Crawford et al., 2019 in European Commission, 2020). Progressive 
deployment of 5G will enhance connectivity, but this is likely to increase the number 
of connected devices (e.g. smartphones, IoT sensors) and drive more WEEE genera-
tion (Rao and Prasad, 2018). Multidisciplinary action from industry and policy-makers, 
increased  collaboration  and  standardisation  among  stakeholders  along  the  supply 
chain will improve environmental management of wireless infrastructure and elec-
tronic devices. This will require circular economy initiatives to reduce the volume of 
materials and equipment for  disposal, which can then be better regulated through 
policy (WEEE Forum and ITU, 2020). 

The  pandemic-shift  to  digital  lifestyles  could  trigger  more  permanent  changes  to  our 
work and daily lives, over the long-term (10 years and beyond), with implications for the 
environment (Kanda and Kivimaa, 2020). The expansion of the ICT sector in the long-term 
could create – in additional to direct effects of producing, using and disposing of digital 
technologies  –  more  significant  indirect  environmental  effects.  The  latter  includes 
changes in individual (and collective) usage patterns and behaviour, matched by a par-
allel  increase  in  the  production  of  digital  devices,  networks  and  infrastructure,  which 
could extend to other domains of digital innovation (e.g. e-commerce, smart homes, car 
sharing) (Bieser and Hilty, 2018). A more systemic understanding of both positive and 
negative  effects  of  digital  consumption  would  be  needed;  for  example,  reducing 
transport through virtual mobility and the potential to increase transport created by 
the desire to travel to places seen on the internet.  

The ownership (and increasing use) of multiple digital devices, for example televisions, 
smartphones or tablets for video streaming, is increasing the environmental footprint 
of individuals, where streaming service providers (e.g. YouTube) are increasing media 
consumption on the move, through the provision of short videos that are being rapidly 
and frequently consumed over mobile networks (e.g. via smartphones, tablets) that 
present  a  significant  ‘hotspot’,  requiring  policy  attention.  Priest  et  al.  (2019)  com-
pared energy consumption and the carbon footprint of television using different dis-
tribution  networks:  traditional  terrestrial  broadcast,  satellite,  cable  and  streaming, 
and found a higher carbon footprint for newer technologies (e.g. satellite, cable and 

February 2022  123 

How might the is-
in 
sue  develop 
future? 

 
 
 
 
EUROPEAN COMMISSION, DG ENVIRONMENT 
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streaming) with hotspots in different parts of the distribution network (e.g. the high-
functionality set-top boxes used for cable and satellite, and the network equipment, 
both inside and outside the home, for streaming). The challenge is a general lack of 
awareness of the environmental impacts associated with digital media consumption 
because often there are no links drawn between the ‘user’ and the footprint of the 
‘digital technology’ that allows them to connect to the internet (Mobbs, 2019). 

Strategic approaches will be needed to successfully deploy digital solutions to reduce pol-
lution impacts in societal and economic sectors through the application of intelligent ICT 
systems that enhance the transformational role of digital technologies in achieving the 
zero pollution agenda. More scientific studies are needed to systematically examine the 
impacts of using digital technologies including the positive effects on society and eco-
nomic sectors (e.g. technological efficiency gains resulting in pollution reduction) and the 
negative externalities (e.g. rising demand due to ICT efficiencies, changing behaviours 
such as growth in online shopping) (WBGU, 2019). This will help to identify environmen-
tal hotspots in digital networks (and across the whole ‘digital ecosystem’), and to find 
new ways to improve the environment performance of digital technologies over the 
whole product life cycle (e.g. e-waste-recyclable materials that reduce the pressure 
on resources and encourage a more circular economy) (Falke and Höck, 2019).  

Greater energy efficiency of digital devices will enhance their lifespan and improve equip-
ment consumption rates, but incorporating modular and circular design principles will 
make it easier to repair and recycle components that could reduce WEEE overall. How-
ever, this requires the development and implementation of international standards for 
sustainable management of WEEE and to create a more circular ICT sector (e.g. infra-
structure equipment being rented or leased instead of owned) (WEEE Forum and ITU, 
2020). More research and development is also needed to support monitoring the life 
cycle impacts of digital technologies to identify environmental trade-offs and the sustain-
ability potential of substituting digital for non-digital technologies with negative environ-
mental impacts.  
Opportunities 
(for  our  ability  to  deliver  a  zero-pollu-
tion ambition) 

Risks 
(to  our  ability  to  deliver  a  zero-pollution 
ambition) 

Digital  and  data-driven  efficiencies  for 
end users can reduce pollution impacts, 
although providers may need to be in-
centivised  to  change  practice  (Travers, 
2021; Mobbs, 2019). 

Information  on  the  external  effects  of 
digital devices could be made easily ac-
cessible  to  consumers  (e.g.  using  foot-
prints) to encourage more informed and 
potentially  responsible  consumption 
(WBDU, 2019). 

Introduce  and  make  mainstream  the 
notion of ‘digital sobriety’. This could in-
crease awareness of the environmental 
impacts of digital devices (and its used) 
by educating consumers and companies 
about  how  to  avoid  digital  waste.  It 
could  also  build  awareness  of  the  dis-
proportionate  environmental  impacts 
of  digital  consumption  (i.e.  networks, 
data centres, devices used). 

Digital service providers are increasing the 
volume of digital media consumed. For ex-
ample, Netflix, YouTube are exposing users 
to a wider selection of content that is not 
consistent with their needs (i.e. ‘autoplay’ 
functions on video streaming platforms en-
courages greater media consumption) (The 
Shift Project, 2019). 

Digital  sobriety  could  exacerbate  unequal 
access to digital devices, widening the dig-
ital divide, particularly if this slows the pro-
gress in bringing more people online (e.g. 
those from disadvantaged backgrounds or 
dispersed from conflict or climate sensitive 
zones) (IAPP, 2019). 

February 2022  124 

impli-

Potential 
cations 
for  the  EU’s  abil-
ity  to  deliver  a 
zero-pollution 
ambition 

Sustainable  digi-
tal  practice  and 
consumer  behav-
iours  could  be 
pivotal  in  achiev-
ing a net zero pol-
lution  economy 
and society. 

 
 
 
 
 
EUROPEAN COMMISSION, DG ENVIRONMENT 
FORENV 2020-21: EMERGING ISSUES IMPACTING THE DELIVERY OF A ZERO POLLUTION AMBITION BY 2050 

Integrating the digital and sustainability 
transition agendas could provide the IT 
sector with better guidance on material 
use  and  sustainable  management  of 
WEEE (WEEE Forum and ITU, 2020). 

Digital  and  sustainability  agendas  are 
shaped  by  different  stakeholders.  A  twin 
transition agenda would require adjusting 
traditional governance structures and cul-
ture.  

• 
Regulation 
of 
internet  ser-
vices  and  related 
digital  infrastruc-
ture  (e.g. 
inter-
ceding on aspects 
of  monitoring, 
bandwidth  con-
trol,  efficiency  of 
digital 
services) 
may  become  im-
portant to reduce 
pollution. 

Sharing  digital  information  and  opera-
tions could foster more integrated digi-
tal  solutions,  and  create  opportunities 
to  monitor  environmental 
impacts 
across  the  whole  digital  ecosystem  in 
order  to  address  unstainable  digital 
consumption  and  related  climate  and 
pollution impacts. 
Environmental audits of ICTs could esti-
mate pollution impacts, allowing service 
providers  to  be  transparent  about  the 
environmental footprint of their digital 
products and to take more proactive ac-
tion  to  reduce  their  pollution  impacts 
(Chevance et al., 2020; De et al., 2020). 

Sanctions  against  software  obsoles-
cence  could 
limit  ‘planned  obsoles-
cence’  and  prompt  more  effective  e-
waste management solutions (e.g. eco-
design,  material  recyclability,  recondi-
tioning and reparability). 

Incentives such as tax relief  or rebates 
on  green  ICT  could  to  decouple  eco-
nomic development and environmental 
damage, while simultaneously avoiding 
undesirable  rebound  effects  (WBGU, 
2019) 
Environmental  regulations  to  prevent 
increased  consumption  and  emissions 
from networks and data centres. 

Raise  awareness  of  the  environmental 
costs of internet usage and benefits of 
making small behavioural changes (e.g. 
turning off video during a virtual meet-
ing,  reducing  the  quality  of  streaming 
services, decreasing gaming time, limit-
ing  time  on  social  media)  (Obringer  et 
al., 2021; Travers, 2021; De et al., 2020).   

Safety  and  security  of  personal  data  and 
devices could be compromised leading to a 
violating  of  individual  privacy  and  loss  of 
trust. 

Digital  actions  (e.g.  video  conferencing, 
media download, gaming) that drive envi-
ronmental pollution are typically small and 
dispersed  across  the  digital  ecosystem, 
thus  creating  little  agency  or  pressure  to 
change (De et al., 2020). 

Sanctions  and  tax  incentives  could  nega-
tively  impact  the  devices  market  (e.g.  af-
fect  the  manufacturing  of  digital  devices, 
the sourcing of their materials, and pricing 
of digital products) leading to unfair com-
petition and access to digital devices. 
Willingness and ability of regulators to en-
gage various stakeholders across the digi-
tal ecosystem in discourse to balance com-
peting interests effectively. 

Regulating  internet  services  has  implica-
tions  for  the  freedom  of  expression  and 
the  accessibility  of  content,  which  would 
need to be carefully managed.     

Digital  solutions 
could 
help 
achieve efficiency 
gains  and  trans-
form societal and 
economic  sectors 
into less polluting 
ones. 

Digital devices and content have the po-
tential  to  substitute  material  products 
by  creating  virtual  substitutes  (e.g.  e-
readers instead of paperback books, or 
by  streaming  media  online  instead  of 
buying CDs or DVDs)  

Individual ownership of digital devices and 
consumption of digital media increase un-
sustainably  as  companies  fail  to  reduce 
their  environmental  footprint,  hence  the 
use of digital devices act as a ‘fire acceler-
ant’ to unsustainable trends.   

Renting or leasing electronics could be-
come a more common business model, 
which would provide companies greater 
control  over  their  maintenance  and 
lifespan.  

Leasing  or  renting  electronic  devices  re-
quires a shift from owning a product, which 
could  take  a  long  time  to  become  main-
stream in the consumer market, consider-
ing the heritage of the ‘possession culture’ 
(Bacher et al., 2020). 

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Modular  and  circular  design  of  elec-
tronic  devices,  and  standardisation  of 
components  could  play  a  key  role  in 
making recycling more feasible, includ-
ing reducing the use of crucial raw ma-
terials  and  hazardous  materials  (WEEE 
Forum and ITU, 2020). 
Digital  data  and  tracking  of  materials 
and  products  enable  sustainable  man-
agement of the electronics devices mar-
ket  (e.g.  information  for  recycling,  re-
reusing  materials). 
conditioning  or 
Knowledge  sharing  across  sectors  will 
help identify challenges and opportuni-
ties, and improve under- standing of cir-
cularity and thus business practices.   
The ‘automation of society’ is already driving the uptake of digital technologies in a 
number of sectors, but the pandemic has led to a sharp rise in the use of internet and 
internet-based  services.    As people  become  acclimatised  to  working-from-home  or 
remote learning, the role of the internet will remain a central part of life, in the short 
term (i.e. now to next 5 years), where innovations in technology will drive a surge in 
use (Kanda and Kivimaa, 2020; De et al., 2020).  

In the long-term (10 years and beyond), the pandemic-shift to digital lifestyles could trig-
ger more permanent changes to our work and daily lives with implications for the envi-
ronment (Kanda and Kivimaa, 2020).  

Quantifying  the  environmental  impacts  of  digital  technologies,  beyond  energy  use 
and related climate impacts, is improving with the application of life cycle approaches 
that has the potential to help identify ‘environmental hotspots’ in digital networks or 
across the whole digital ecosystem.  There is, however, high complexity inherent in 
conducting environmental analysis of the life cycle impacts of digital technologies, due 
to the many actors (users, companies involved in single digital service), multiple digital 
products (terminals, networks, data centres and digital equipment) and their multi-
functionality (single device or digital product with multiple functions, uses) (Sidos et 
al.,  2020).  For  example,  estimating  the  environmental  footprint  of  internet-based 
technologies  and  services  is  difficult  due  to  uncertainties  about  the  boundaries  of 
analysis. While the carbon footprint of digital technologies includes emissions and pol-
lution effects associated with energy and materials used throughout the life cycle of 
the product or service, it is often the impacts during the ‘use’ phase that is difficult to 
estimate where consumer behaviour / pattern of use and technological efficiencies of 
multifunctional devices are challenging to model (RESET, n.d; The Shift Project, 2019). 
The lack of data availability can often hinder the application of life cycle approaches 
used to compare the environmental impacts of several digital devices and services, 
particularly when including the use phase in assessments (e.g. lack of reliable infor-
mation on user behaviour, determining the economic and social value of digital de-
vices that have multiple functionalities) (Rice and Friday, 2020; Sidos et al., 2020). 

Alongside traditional models, new models of governance and multi-stakeholder coop-
eration  (e.g.  users,  providers  of  digital  services  and  infrastructure  regulators)  is 
needed to progress the EU’s twin green and digital transition ambition (WBGU, 2019), 
as already modelled with the Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform and the planned 
Zero  Pollution  Stakeholder  Platform  (European  Commission,  2021).  Such  platforms 
may  be  instrumental  in  developing  a  roadmap  for  achieving  net  zero  (e.g.  through 
digital and data-driven efficiencies) and could clarify how the digital ecosystem could 
be made more sustainable, and align the actions of different stakeholders to a com-
mon set of goals; i.e. based on joint ‘social values’ and policies that maximise the ben-
efits of digital technologies, while minimising the risk of misuse and unintended con-
sequences (WBGU, 2019). New and inclusive models of governance or regulatory ap-
proaches for digitalisation, which emerge from such platforms, could be tested on a 

February 2022  126 

Timeframe 
emergence  

of 

Uncertainties 

Additional 
re-
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APPENDIX B  VALIDATION OF ISSUES BY SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEES 

This  Appendix  summarises  the  key  findings  of  peer-reviews  by  members  of  the  European 

Environment  Agency  (EEA)  Scientific  Committee  and  the  Scientific  Committee  on  Health, 

Environmental and Emerging Risks (SCHEER) of the 10 priority issues identified in relation to the 

zero-pollution ambition.   

The issues were divided between the two Scientific Committees for review based on the relevance 

of each issue to the Committees areas of expertise.   

On this basis the SCHEER reviewed and validated issues 1, 2, 5, 6 and 9; and the EEA Scientific 

Committee issues 3, 4, 7, 8 and 10.  A summary of the review is presented below.  In addition 

some additional comments and edits were provided my members of the Committees to the text 

of issues 4, 8, 9 and 10 

Where possible, the opinions of the Scientific Committees have been incorporated into the issue 

characterisations  (listed  in  full  in  Appendix  A),  including  edits  (provided  in  form  of  tracked-

changes) and in-text comments. 

In some cases particular suggestions and comments were not included, including in particular: 

•  Requests that would change the focus or scope of particular issues, beyond that which 
was  collectively  agreed  through  the  FORENV  process  (in  particular  sense-making 

workshops).  Some minor scope changes were made however, for example clarifying the 

focus of issues 6 related to cellular agriculture and 9 related to synthetic biology. 

•  Requests to widen the literature and evidence reviews, for example to include more in-
depth and scientific understandings of drivers and/or implications.  In most cases specific 

additional  references  provided  by  reviewers  were  incorporated,  but  broader  additional 

research  and  evidence  review  was  not  completed.    The  FORENV  emerging  issue 

descriptions are intended to be a selective, exploratory assessment of emerging evidence 

to identify plausible future risks and opportunities rather than comprehensive evidence 

reviews. 

Summary of review by the SCHEER 

This sections presents verbatim the comments provided by the SCHEER on Issues 1, 2, 5, 6 and 

9. 

1.  Urban settlement patterns and demographic change: implications for pollution 

General comments  

The SCHEER is of the view that changing settlement patterns and urban demographics will have 

a number of potential impacts, offering risks and opportunities to the environment (zero pollution) 

and  human  health.  The  SCHEER  noted  that  the  issue  is  complex,  since  whether  risks  or 

opportunities are realised are very dependent on the nature of the precise changes which occur. 

The FORENV identified the main implications to be decline in social and economic activity in city 

centres, resulting in vacant buildings, less tax revenue from commerce, and potentially a shift to 

more unemployed residents. At the same time, the population shift could see a decline in urban 

and increase in rural populations, with resulting challenges for infrastructure including transport, 

wastewater  with  possible  reductions  in  pollution  as  economic  activity  declines.  The  FORENV 

identified a number of risks and opportunities around built infrastructure, renaturing, retrofitting 

of buildings, but also loss of finance and services. In the following sections, the SCHEER focusses 

on direct (and indirect) environment and human health aspects.  

Answers to the questions of the mandate  

Question 1: Is the emerging issue identified likely to have the risks and/or opportunities described, 

or also additional ones? And if so, which ones?  

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It is the opinion of the SCHEER that the analysis provides a realistic picture of a changing situation 

in European cities, contributed to by the Covid-19 pandemic, ongoing demographic changes and 

planned interventions to combat pollution and climate change.  

However, there are factors other than the pandemic-related and digital development-related ones 

that  lead  to  the  changes  described.  In  particular,  the  trends  in  the  housing  market  (with 

substantial  rise  of  house  prices  in  downtown  areas)  adds  to  the  donut-shaped  development 

described.  

The uncertainties in these changes are also described and are considerable.  

Question 2: In your view are there additional long-term development/s related to the issue that 

the issue description currently omits? If so, please describe them briefly. Do these development/s 

pose additional risks and/or opportunities?  

In  the  opinion  of  the  SCHEER  there  is  not  sufficient  consideration  given  to  issues  surrounding 

vacant  (and  derelict)  buildings  and  sites,  which  may  present  environmental  and  human  health 

risks  and  opportunities.  Such  sites  historically  are  often  associated  with  past industrial  activity 

and may carry a pollution legacy from such activities. Vacant and derelict buildings may become 

hotspots for anti-social behaviour, for incorrect disposal of waste (fly-tipping) and may encourage 

infestations of vermin. The SCHEER note that there is no specific mention of risks to biodiversity 

through  loss  of  habitat  that,  while  not  specifically  being  related  to  zero  pollution,  must  be 

considered  as  a  potential  threat  from  the  shift  in  the  population  to  rural  areas.  This  also  has 

potential implications for the loss of productive agricultural land. The issue description should also 

be extended to consider blue spaces (rivers, canals, lakes, harbours) within urban design. The 

progressive  increase  of  the  number  of  people  expected  to  be  working  remotely  in  the  coming 

decades,  will  be  associated  to  a  series  of  consequences  both  beneficial  (less  commuting  time, 

more time for self and family for instance) and negative for health and environment. Remote work 

may have significant consequences on mental health through social isolation and lack of personal 

contacts. This may be particularly problematic for young people and adolescents and increase the 

need for mental health support services. 

The analysis provided by the FORENV document suggests that offices in town centres are likely 

to shrink but not disappear and that office buildings left in the centres will be converted to homes. 

If this is to happen then the risk of increasing amounts of construction waste may be reduced. 

The suggested trend would however be counteracted because prices of the homes created are 

likely to be very high and because people may wish to move to suburbs anyway because of the 

demographic trends mentioned.  

Question 3: Are the described expected implications (positive or negative) for the environment 

and human health plausible, including the expected time-frame of emergence?  

The  SCHEER  suggests  reduced  quality  of  life  due  to  changes  in  settlement  patterns  and 

demographic changes will potentially result from changes in the urban structure. Economic growth 

will stagnate as the urban centres become less frequented, with a resulting loss of services and 

wider  loss  of  revenue.  The  opportunities  identified  around  re-naturing  and  greening  (including 

land for urban food production) present an important environmental opportunity, including the 

consideration of a new city concept, but will require substantial interventions in urban planning, 

transport etc.  

It is opinion of the SCHEER that, to combat these risks, it is extremely important to re-consider 

the city or urban settlement. For example, the development of large traffic-free areas and blue-

green spaces should be the starting point for a different conception of city, with the associated 

improvements in pollution. Also the concept of the “15-minute city” is widely discussed but will 

require substantial interventions at the level of urban planning, road network, public transports, 

etc.  As  well,  blue-green  spaces  have  been  long  recognised  as  improving  health  and  wellbeing. 

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However, especially the creation of blue-green space within the historic cities would be difficult to 

achieve.  

The SCHEER is in agreement with the risks and opportunities identified in the FORENV process, 

including the challenges to rural and peri-urban infrastructure, and the loss of green spaces. The 

timescales are short to medium term. 

2.  Will  regenerative  buildings  and  living  materials  in  Eu-rope  help  deliver  the  zero 

pollution ambition? 

General comments  

The SCHEER is in agreement with the risks and opportunities identified in the FORENV process 

but had identified a number of additional considerations.  

In so far as environmental pollution and human exposure are concerned, new building materials 

can  provide  both  benefits  and  risks.  In  the  past,  construction  materials  have  caused  serious 

exposure problems during their use such as, e.g., radioactive radiation from radon and exposure 

to PCBs used in linings of concrete, and also in their end phase when for example heavy metals 

were leaching from landfills. Newly developed materials may be selected because of their lower 

carbon footprint as well as lower contents of contaminants. However, they may pose emerging, 

'new' problems. Examples of the latter are polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS)  used in coatings, 

the use of polyurethane reinforcement (PUR) in concrete and the increasing use of nanomaterials 

and  (micro)plastics  in  construction.  Such  new  materials  may  lead  to  emissions  to  the 

environment, both during use (through e.g. wear) and in their waste phase when (incompletely) 

incinerated or dumped in landfills. The SCHEER recommends that the complete life cycles (LCA) 

of new construction materials be assessed before they are admitted to the market." The FORENV 

identified the implications of this issue to be more innovations on new materials and reduced use 

of  harmful  construction  material,  lack  of  standardisation  as  applied  to  regenerative  materials, 

decarbonisation  of  existing  housing  stock  and  construction  of  social  housing  makes  use  of 

regenerative materials. 

Answers to the questions of the mandate  

Question 1: Is the emerging issue identified likely to have the risks and/or opportunities described, 

or also additional ones? And if so, which ones?  

The SCHEER is of the view that contaminants from hazardous construction materials that may be 

released  from  the  rainwater  interacting  with  urban  infrastructure  like  sewage  and  roofs,  which 

can originate from various sources, such as parks/gardens, roads, and sealed surfaces [Lundy et 

al,  2012],  must  be  fully  assessed.  Even  in  reduced  quantity,  these  hazardous  construction 

materials may have a negative impact on Zero-Pollution. Buildings and the applied construction 

materials (e.g. renders, mortars, paints, roofing materials, and bricks), as important factors for 

water quality in urban areas, contain heavy metals such as Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn (from roofs), streets 

biocides  such  as  carbendazim,  terbutryn,  and  diuron,  polyaromatic  hydrocarbons  (PAH), 

trifluralin,  nonylphenols,  nonylphenol  ethoxylates  (NPEOs)  and  diethylhexyl  phthalate  (DEHP), 

monobutyltin (MBT), as contaminants. In addition, the use of various types of nanomaterials in 

these new building materials may be accompanied with new as yet unknown risks.  

The SCHEER identified that with appropriate materials, there are considerable opportunities in the 

context  of  zero  pollution  and  also  the  circular  economy.  The  potential  of  energy  saving 

construction materials will provide considerable benefits in tackling climate change.  

Additional opportunities identified by the SCHEER include:  

Several potential innovations and approaches could disrupt current approaches in the sector to 

deliver  regenerative  buildings  in  the  future  (Ribeirinho  et  al.,  2020).  Some  specific  concrete 

examples (potentially among many more) could be:  

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•  Existing buildings could be retrofitted to become more regenerative, such as to incorporate 
a façade that could use solar energy for heating and cooling whilst any excess energy is used 

to power an electrostatic filter to improve indoor air quality (BuildHeat, 2020). 

•  Buildings may work with nature to both improve air quality and produce food. For example, 
a start-up company (Biosolar) proposes to use algae suspended in panels to produce protein 

via photosynthesis which is suitable for human consumption (Evanson 2019).  

•  Early research suggests that buildings could self-heal as  well as grow themselves through 
directed environmental stimulus (Heveran et al., 2020; Srubar, 2020; Zeeberg, 2020).  

Question 2: In your view are there additional long-term development/s related to the issue that 

the issue description currently omits? If so, please describe them briefly. Do these development/s 

pose additional risks and/or opportunities?  

Replacing  traditional  materials  with  composite  materials  is  an  important  change  in  favour  of 

sustainability, as composite materials mainly use polymer-linked carbon or glass fibers through 

innovative processes that consume less energy and produce materials that perform better than 

traditional ones. However, for the new materials the database to evaluate potential risks for the 

human health or the environment is much more restricted than for traditionally used materials.  

Only some publications have been found on the new materials that could be used in buildings, 

because in many cases only mixture of different compounds are used, difficult to identify or to 

evaluate.  For  example,  the  fiberglass  reinforced  concrete  (GRC)  is  a  designed  material  that 

contains  cement,  polymers  and  glass  fibres  that  are  rooted  in  the  cement  matrix,  or  even  the 

mineral wool and ceramic fibres can be used as a substitute for asbestos fibres for insulation or 

sound  insulation.  Asbestos-cement  products  can  use  cellulose,  polypropylene  fibres,  polyvinyl 

alcohol  fibres,  aramid  and  glass  fibres  instead  of  asbestos.  Cellulose,  polypropylene  fibres, 

polyvinyl alcohol fibres, aramids and glass fibres can be used as a substitute for asbestos fibres 

for  asbestos-cement  products.  The  risks  of  such  materials  is  mainly  on  human  health  and 

environment.  For  example,  erionite  fibre,  used  as  a  new  asbestos  replacement  material,  is  a 

mineral  fibre  that  causes  malignant  mesothelioma  and  has  been  classified  in  group  1  (human 

carcinogen) by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) [2012]. Also, refractory 

ceramic fibres are classified in Group 2B (possible human carcinogen) by IARC [2002] and Group 

A2  (suspected  of  human  carcinogen)  by  the  American  Conference  of  Governmental  Industrial 

Hygiene (ACGIH, 2016) because it can cause pulmonary fibrosis [3]. The WHO has assessed the 

hazards  of  14  types  of  asbestos  substitute  materials,  including  para-aramid,  attapulgite  and 

carbon fibre [WHO, 2005]. Harrison et al. (1999) discussed the health hazards of para-aramid, 

polyvinyl alcohol and cellulose compared to chrysotile.  

In building, environmentally friendly materials (also known as green building materials) have a 

low  environmental  impact.  They  should  be  durable,  reusable,  or  recyclable,  they  could  include 

recyclable materials in their composition, and have to be from resources of the area where the 

building activity will take place –they have to be local materials. These materials also have to be 

natural (soil, adobe, wood, cork, bamboo, straw, sawdust, etc.) and must not be spoilt by cold, 

heat, or humidity." [Melia, et al., 2014]. The aim for sustainability, for example by recycling old 

materials, does have a risk for including new hazards and therefore it is important to make an 

assessment of potential new risks (e.g. high or increased susceptibility to fire).  

Question 3: Are the described expected implications (positive or negative) for the environment 

and human health plausible, including the expected time-frame of emergence?  

The SCHEER is of the view that the expected implications are plausible including the time frame, 

which is medium to long term. 

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5.  Will new ways of pollution information provision influence behaviours towards low 

pollution lifestyles that go beyond current trends to low/zero waste? 

General comments  

The  SCHEER  agrees  with  the  general  description  of  the  issue,  agreeing  that  increasing  use  of 

widely available technology is making more individuals aware of environmental issues in general 

and pollution specifically. The ability to see and appreciate the potential impact of an individual’s 

choice  should  mean  that  decisions  are  made  with  full  cognisance  of  the  effects.  When  pooled 

together from many individuals there will be the potential for increased awareness of the scale of 

pollution and to record changes. The issue as drafted has a very strong emphasis on air pollution 

which is the one where there has already been the greatest developments, and sensitisation of 

individuals to health effects. It is noted that it is not yet clear whether the same approaches can 

be applied more widely (e.g. in water pollution). The FORENV identified the implications of this 

issue to be access to pollution information could change individual behaviours and raise awareness 

of standards and guidelines, as well as encouraging a sense of belonging to a shared environment 

and growth in participation in citizen science. 

Answers to the questions of the mandate  

Question 1: Is the emerging issue identified likely to have the risks and/or opportunities described, 

or also additional ones? And if so, which ones?  

The SCHEER is of the opinion that the most prominent risk identified is the concept of a digital 

divide, so that the implications could be profound societally. Additional risks to the environment 

not  fully  addressed  could  stem  from  the  challenges  of  e-waste,  utilisation  of  scarce  natural 

resources  (rare  metals).  However,  the  SCHEER  is  also  of  the  view  that  a  decrease  in  trust  in 

science, fake news, and dissemination of false information are potential threats which will need 

to be countered.  

The SCHEER is in agreement with the opportunities identified, and would advocate that they go 

beyond air pollution, the link between pollution and human health suggests there are potential 

health  benefits,  however  benefits  to  the  environment  would  only  be  delivered  if  the  increased 

intelligence about pollution resulted in action to reduce it.  

Question 2: In your view are there additional long-term development/s related to the issue that 

the issue description currently omits? If so please describe them briefly. Do these development/s 

pose additional risks and/or opportunities?  

The  SCHEER  would  like  to  take  the  opportunity  to  point  at  recently  emerging  and  promising 

technologies for obtaining information on human and environmental exposure to contaminants. 

These  technologies  can  create  opportunities  for  knowledge  intensive  SMEs  to  be  developed  in 

Europe. A first example is the so-called wastewater-based epidemiology (EMCDDA 2021, 

https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/topics/wastewater_en).  This  technology  collects  information 

from chemical analysis of wastewater samples or from sensors installed in sewer systems. In this 

way exposure of the human population to e.g., household chemicals, pesticides, viruses (including 

Corona),  anti-biotic  resistance  and  etcetera  can  be  monitored  using  biomarkers  present  in  the 

wastewater1. A second example is the use of cell phones as sensors of (air) pollution (Nyarku et 

al, 2018) by the development of specific apps (e.g., Air Care, Breezometer, IQAir).” 

Question 3: Are the described expected implications (positive or negative) for the environment 

and human health plausible, including the expected time-frame of emergence? 

The  SCHEER  is  of  the  opinion  that  the  expected  implications  are  plausible,  and  that  this  is  an 

immediate issue, we are already moving towards a digital society. 

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6.  Low pollution food: will new, less polluting, methods of producing protein, fats and 

tissues emerge to replace traditional agriculture? 

General comment  

Cellular  agriculture  is  an  emerging  field  in  which  the  production  of  animal-sourced  products 

(proteins, fats and tissues) are developed through biotechnological processes. It is increasingly 

clear that conventional agriculture alone is no longer enough to significantly improve equity and 

support pro-poor growth (20.5.2020 COM (2020) 381 “A Farm to Fork Strategy for a fair, healthy 

and environmentally-friendly food system”). 

Answers to the questions of the mandate  

Question 1: Is the emerging issue identified likely to have the risks and/or opportunities described, 

or also additional ones? And if so, which ones?  

The SCHEER agrees with the opportunities and risks identified. The evidence is well described for 

cellular agriculture, however, SCHEER considers that it would be valuable to distinguish the risks 

and opportunities for the different types of cellular agriculture i.e. tissues-engineering products 

and fermentation-based cellular products i.e. milk and dairy products; in order to better identify 

possible risks and opportunities associated to cellular agriculture products made of cells of living 

or previously living organisms and non-cellular agriculture products made of organic molecules 

like proteins and fats without any cellular or living material in the final product. Ethical factors 

may influence the consumer preferences and put this type of products in a better “pool” position 

for acceptability. The f lines of non-cellular products like milk and dairy may also contribute to the 

acceptability of the next generation of cellular agriculture i.e. cellular meat.  

Additional opportunities identified by the SCHEER are:  

•  Paradigm shift to reconcile human needs in terms of food supply.  
•  Technological boosting of food production systems to improve their ecological efficiency.  
•  Improved microbiome on farms; improved nutrient cycling.  
•  Reducing run-off and need for fertilisers.  
•  Reduction of veterinary antibiotics entering groundwater water/food chain and reduction of 

antimicrobial resistance.  

•  Reduction of pest resistance and reduction of diseases with benefits to public health.  

Additional risks identified by the SCHEER are:  
•  Food  safety  issues  related  to  the  cellular  agriculture  products  (cross-contamination,  shelf-

life, storage, quality criteria).  

•  The use of existing chemicals (e.g. antibiotics or growth factors) for cellular agriculture might 

lead to additional pollution risks in different environmental compartments.  

•  Effects  due  to  extensive  heating  or  illumination  could  impact  biodiversity  in  the  direct 

environment of the production plant.  

Question 2: In your view are there additional long-term development/s related to the issue that 

the issue description currently omits? If so please describe them briefly. Do these development/s 

pose additional risks and/or opportunities?  

Summary of long-term developments identified by the SCHEER:  

•  Supply chain disruption by lack of cellular materials (tissues, fat, proteins)  
•  Scaling of the cellular agriculture production units  

The  SCHEER  is  aware  that  their  role  should  be  limited  to  evaluate  risks  and  opportunities  for 

human  and  environmental  health.  However,  it  is  opinion  of  the  SCHEER  that  there  are  some 

economic, cultural and ethical risks that are not highlighted in the FORENV document, e.g. the 

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possible  negative  social  impact  from  unemployment  in  the  conventional  farming  sectors)  and 

should be evaluated.  

1. There is a high risk that global production of food, the most important resource for humanity, 

will  be  controlled  by  a  few  big  companies,  with  enormous  economic,  social,  and  ethical 

consequences.  

2. In many European countries, particularly in the south (Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Greece), 

food  and  food  production  represent  an  important  component  of  the  popular  cultural  heritage 

(some traditions have been classified as UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritages of Humanity) and 

a fundamental contribution to local economies. If, in a long-time perspective, cellular agriculture 

will  cancel  these  traditions  it  would  be  a  dramatic  cultural  impoverishment  with  enormous 

damages to local economies. If not, global inequalities will be dramatically increased: poor people 

will eat artificial food, rich people will continue to eat natural, high quality, food.  

Moderate changes in food consumption, mainly the consumption of animal-based products, could 

significantly reduce emissions from agriculture production (European Commission, 2018).  

The opportunities of changing dietary patterns, and, particularly, of reducing meat consumption, 

have been also highlighted by the SCHEER in its opinion on FORENV Cycle 1, commenting Issue 

3:  “Environmental  risks  and  opportunities  associated  with  emerging  and  changing  dietary 

patterns: reducing meat consumption and alternative protein sources.” (SCHEER, 2019).  

It is important to note that achieving sustainable agricultural intensification requires a substantial 

paradigm shift to reconcile growing human needs with the need to strengthen the resilience and 

sustainability of landscapes and the biosphere (Rockström et al., 2017). This calls for bold changes 

in the technological aspects of production systems to improve their ecological efficiency. Climate 

change impacts go well beyond crop yields. Climate change also affects soil quality, fish habitats 

and stocks, the biodiversity of landscapes, and the epidemiology and antimicrobial resistance of 

pests and diseases. There are great uncertainties about the combined effects of these impacts 

(FAO, 2018).  

Launching the future supply chain of (non) cellular agriculture products will require involvement 

of STO (public and private) in order to identify strengths and weak points (SWOT) and mitigate 

possible negative social impacts (unemployment in conventional farming sectors).  

Shelf-life duration of (non) cellular agriculture products will require a dedicated assessment along 

with the storage procedures and consumer safety – possibly will be covered under EU Novel Food 

Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2015/2283).  

Soil pollution and global risk mapping may guide where to start with pilot projects and represent 

a  driving  force  in  order  to  replace  conventional  agriculture  using  pesticides  and  fertilizers. 

Moderate changes in food consumption, mainly the consumption of animal-based products, could 

significantly  reduce  emissions  from  agriculture  production  (European  Commission,  2018).  By 

2050, dietary changes could free several million km2 (medium confidence) of land and provide a 

technical mitigation potential of 0.7 to 8.0 GtCO2 eq yr-1, relative to business as usual projections 

(high  confidence).  Transitions  towards  low-GHG  emission  diets  may  be  influenced  by  local 

production practices, technical and financial barriers and associated livelihoods and cultural habits 

(high confidence (IPCC 2020)). It is increasingly clear that agriculture alone is no longer enough 

to significantly improve equity and support pro-poor growth. 

Question 3: Are the described expected implications (positive or negative) for the environment 

and human health plausible, including the expected time-frame of emergence?  

The SCHEER agrees that cellular agriculture is still under the development stage and are not yet 

fully  researched.  In  any  case,  it  should  be  considered  together  with  environmental  and  social 

implications, in order to better understand trade-offs and synergies. 

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9.  Will new innovations in synthetic biology emerge that accelerate pollution reduction 

and mitigation? 

General comments  

The  SCHEER  recommends  to  adhere  to  the  definition  as  established  by  the  conference  of  the 

parties to the convention on biological diversity at its Thirteenth meeting (Cancun, Mexico, 4-17 

December  2016,  CBD/COP/DEC/XIII/17)  which  was  based  on  the  more  inclusive  definition 

proposed  by  the  predecessor  of  the  SCHEER,  SCENIHR  (referenced  as  European  Commission, 

2014): “Synthetic biology is a further development and new dimension of modern biotechnology 

that combines science, technology and engineering to facilitate and accelerate the understanding, 

design,  redesign,  manufacture  and/or  modification  of  genetic  materials,  living  organisms  and 

biological systems”. The reference should also include Part II and III of this Opinion (Synthetic 

Biology II - Risk Assessment Methodologies and Safety Aspects, Opinion, May 2015; Synthetic 

Biology III - Risks to the Environment and Biodiversity Related to Synthetic Biology and Research 

Priorities in the Field of Synthetic Biology, Opinion, December 2015. A summarizing publication is 

also available (Epstein & Vermeire, 2016).  

It is also recommended to pay attention to the concept of responsible research and innovation as 

a  “transparent,  interactive  process  by  which  societal  actors  and  innovators  become  mutually 

responsive  to  each  other  with  a  view  to  the  (ethical)  acceptability,  sustainability  and  societal 

desirability  of  the  innovation  process  and  its  marketable  products  (in  order  to  allow  a  proper 

embedding of scientific and technological advances in our society)” (Von Schomberg, 2011).  

In  the  last  sentence  of  the  ‘emerging  issue  description’  it  may  be  added  that,  in  addition  to 

minimization,  control,  elimination  and  remediation  of  pollution,  also  regeneration  of  the 

contaminated matrices and sites is a potential contribution of SynBio to strategies for minimization 

of pollution. The last sentence of the first paragraph under ‘How might the issue develop in the 

future?’ may be adapted as follows: ‘While the use of enzymes and microbes to produce biobased 

alternatives to certain products/fuels is not new, the process is often slow and not always cost 

effective.  In  addition,  it  can  lead  to  some  undesirable  environmental  effects  linked  to  the 

production of the biological feedstocks, and the CO2 emissions and some of the chemicals used 

during the process of fermentation.’ (EEA science committee, pers. comment) 

Answers to the questions of the mandate  

Question 1: Is the emerging issue identified likely to have the risks and/or opportunities described, 

or also additional ones? And if so, which ones?  

The  SCHEER  agrees  with  the  opportunities  and  risks  identified.  In  the  following  additional 

implications,  opportunities  and  risks  are  identified  based  on  the  SCHEER  SynBio  Opinions 

(referenced above).  

Additional opportunities identified by the SCHEER:  

•  Syngas fermentation can develop carbon recycling or carbon capture utilisation,  
•  Boosting  the  market  for  alternative  biofuel  production  technologies  due  to  fermentation’s 

flexible use of local, waste, low-cost or abundant resources,  

•  Improved sustainable production of chemicals as well as fuels from non
•  Production of novel biobased chemicals  
•  More efficient use of abundant waste, byproducts and renewable sources,  
•  Applications that may accelerate pollution reduction and mitigation such as in food and feed 
production,  energy  and  mining  (novel  fuels,  mineral  extraction,  desulphurisation of  fuels), 

food resources  

‐

information  technology  (biosensors,  nano-devices),  and  chemical  industry  (high-yield 

production of renewable chemicals).  

Additional risks to be considered according to the SCHEER:  

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•  There  may  be  new  challenges  in  predicting  risks  due  to  emergent  properties  of  SynBio 
products  and  extensive  genetically  engineered  systems,  including,  1)  the  integration  of 

protocells into/with living organisms, 2) future developments of autonomous protocells, 3) 

the  use  of  non-standard  biochemical  systems  in  living  cells,  4)  the  increased  speed  of 

modifications  by  the  new  technologies  for  DNA  synthesis  and  genome  editing.  In  general, 

risks are related to the emergence of new and uncharacterised biological functions, properties 

and products and the absence of appropriate comparator organisms for the risk assessment 

means that alternative approaches to risk assessment may be required.  

•  Bioenergy, agricultural and chemical industry applications of SynBio might drive significant 
land-use  change  towards  feedstock  production  which  may  have  negative  impacts  on 

biodiversity and conservation: for example, increased extraction of biomass from agricultural 

land or from the natural environment could decrease soil fertility, additional intensification of 

agriculture with a new end product may lead to effects on soil fertility and to overcome this, 

additional nutrients may be used,  

•  Increased demand for biomass could lead to displacement of local sustainable uses and lead 
to environmental harm in tropical and sub-tropical communities. If SynBio techniques open 

up new sources of energy such as algae and seaweed, increased demand might encroach on 

traditional uses of these resources  

•  Accidental  release  of  SynBio  organisms  engineered  for  contained  use  may  lead  to  their 

survival and propagation in the environment.  

•  Regarding the “improved sustainable production of chemicals as well as fuels from non

food 

resources” it is noted that such production could still entail the risk of exposure of humans 

‐

and the environment to toxic chemicals (CMR/PBT/PMT).  

Question 2: In your view are there additional long-term development/s related to the issue that 

the issue description currently omits? If so, please describe them briefly. Do these development/s 

pose additional risks and/or opportunities?  

Long term developments not described are:  

•  Risks  from  invasion  of  (persistent)  SynBio  organisms.  Organisms  resulting  from  SynBio 

techniques could become invasive or disrupt food webs.  

•  SynBio produces varieties of organisms, including de-extincted species, and products could 
destabilise conservation efforts and diminish support for conservation due to reduced focus 

on species and habitat preservation.  

•  If autonomous artificial cells are created in the future, the genetic information that controls 
internal  functioning  might  mutate.  Thus,  a  population  of  protocells  with  different  genetic 

information could undergo selection and new protocells could arise.  

Question 3: Are the described expected implications (positive or negative) for the environment 

and human health plausible, including the expected time-frame of emergence?  

The SCHEER agrees with the potential implications identified as well as the predicted time frame. 

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Summary of review by the EEA Scientific Committee 

This section presents verbatim the comments by the EEA Scientific Committee on issues 3, 4, 7, 

8 and 10. 

3.  Purpose  driven  business:  will  the  emergence  of  initiatives  such  as  certified  'B' 

corporations play a major role in realising zero pollution? 

Question 1: Is the emerging issue identified likely to have the risks and/or opportunities described, 

or also additional ones? And if so, which ones? 

Yes, and more. 

It  is  difficult  to  separate  the  risks/opportunities  for  purpose-driven  business  from  broader 

movements  and  wider  societal  objectives  (e.g.  towards  circular  economy,  zero-pollution, 

decarbonization, just transition and even de-growth). And even more difficult to think of these 

risks  as  connected  to  the  ‘business  community’  as  if  it  was  a  homogenous  community.  For 

example,  the  risks  and  opportunities  associated  with  purpose-driven  business  will  be  vastly 

different for a multinational company than for a local SME, and also vastly different depending on 

the business sector. A fossil fuel company will have a hard time demonstrating its ESG credentials 

as long as it continues to pursue its core business of extracting and selling fossil fuels… This is 

simply no longer compatible with the requirements to shift towards decarbonization.  

The greatest risk with purpose-driven business seems to be that it becomes an empty shell that 

leads to delayed action among businesses to shift towards zero-pollution and decarbonization as 

quickly  as  possible,  or  that  it  becomes  a  box-ticking  exercise  that  does  not  lead  to  major 

transformational change. This is already mentioned in the document as a risk, but I think it also 

important to place this risk in the temporal context – the longer the whole of society delays in 

making this transformation (including businesses) the greater the negative impacts of a host of 

ecological and climate changes. Therefore, it might be interesting to place part of this discussion 

into research around ‘discourses of delay’, which generally focus on climate delay, but is relevant 

for  all  aspects  of  transformation.  See  this  article  by  Lamb  et  al.  (2020)  ‘discourses  of  climate 

delay’ 

for 

inspiration: 

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-

sustainability/article/discourses-of-climate-delay/7B11B722E3E3454BB6212378E32985A7 

Question 2: In your view are there additional long-term development/s related to the issue that 

the issue description currently omits? If so, please describe them briefly. Do these development/s 

pose additional risks and/or opportunities? 

Risks  of  failure  to  transform  to  zero  pollution,  climate  neutrality,  ecologically-friendly  business 

system  are  real.  Short-term  failures  to  integrate  the  notion  of  transformation  early  on  in  the 

purpose-driven business idea would lead to overarching medium and long-term failures.  

Moving beyond the growth paradigm is perhaps a threat to the traditional profit-driven business 

model, although I do not see much interest in this concept beyond a small cohort of researchers 

in Europe (see e.g. Jason Hinkel). This connects to work on the doughnut economy (see work by 

Kate  Raworth),  and  other  work  by  economists  that  are  suggesting  the  time  of  profit-driven 

business in a growth is coming to an end/should come to an end (see also the EEA’s narrative for 

change:  Growth  without  economic  growth  https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/growth-

without-economic-growth). This movement poses a risk to current business models, and even to 

the  purpose-driven  business  model,  as  profit-making  remains  central  to  that  model  also.  As 

mentioned, it seems unlikely that this idea would be implemented in the short-term or medium-

term, or that it would be implemented in blanket form across all business sectors or globally, but 

it does threaten the notion that it is sufficient to rely on adjusting business models rather than 

radically  overhauling  the  entire  economic  system.  Coming  back  to  what  I  wrote  above,  the 

purpose-driven  business  model  also  itself  may  present  a  risk  to  fulfilling  the  necessary 

transformation, so these are of course interconnected.  

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The ESG framework and moving towards more transparency and accountability within business 

does  open  up  new  opportunities  for  societal  actors,  citizens,  policymakers  and  others  to  hold 

businesses far more to account. I would see this as an opportunity for policymakers to become 

more ambitious or bold in regulating businesses: with better, more reliable and transparent data 

from  businesses,  better  decisions  can  be  made  politically  to  govern  businesses  and  force 

transformation through regulation.  

At the same time, this is not guaranteed, as the risk associated with relying on such a mechanism 

for policy change is the challenge of trying to overcome the power of vested interests and that 

policymakers  often  do  not  have  the  means  or  capabilities  or  courage  to  take  on  such  vested 

interests. In the EU, the power of these vested interests plays out at EU and at national level and 

I do not think it should be underestimated as a threat to achieving goals such as zero pollution, 

climate neutrality etc. This article by Meckling and Nahm (2018) discusses German climate policy 

development  and  highlights  the  success  of  industry  interests  in  blocking  policy  measures: 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gove.12338?casa_token=UeG-

qDVurywAAAAA:0MSIhHUOumcqqSRDgUmaMd--

qqcEvhqM24Oc2v71_EXsUt5x0oF4czaXsbW_DU7IViBQ8NB01hyfGSs  

Historically, vested interests have preferred incremental change to transformational change, as 

long as governance support is in place. ESG and purpose-driven business risks placing a ‘green’ 

gloss  on  business-as-usual:  another  incremental  change  rather  than  transformational  change. 

Thus, the long-term risk of  failure is high unless ESG has  some regulatory outcome, or unless 

there  is  some  stricter  monitoring/sanctions  mechanism  (implemented  via  regulation  also, 

probably). Either way, this means shifting even further away from the notion of free competition 

and free market measures if the ecological, climate crises are to be adequately addressed, which 

may  raise  a  wider  risk  to  the  set-up of  the  entire  EU  structure! Including this  last  observation 

would be going too far from the central discussion of this issue, though.  

Question 3: Are the described expected implications (positive or negative) for the environment 

and human health plausible, including the expected time-frame of emergence? 

I  think  the  time-frame  issue  in  this  context  could  be  further  explained:  the  slower  businesses 

transform away from environmentally-damaging practices, the greater the impacts in the short, 

medium and long-term.  

On  implications  for  human  health:  A  specific  aspect  of  industrial  pollution  that  I  see  is  not 

addressed  in  the  issue  is  chemicals  pollution.  Under  the  ECHA  and  REACH  there  are  already 

considerable  regulations  for  the  importation  of  chemicals,  but  our  scientific  knowledge  about 

health impacts of specific chemicals is incomplete. There have been several cases of industrial 

pollution affecting human health, in parts of Europe. In Belgium, high concentrations of lead in 

the blood samples of children living near the Umicore recycling plant caused high concern in 2020. 

Presently, PFOS contamination of soil and water around the 3M plant (also in Belgium) has led to 

a ban on residents eating fruit and vegetables from their own garden. In the 3M case, the lack of 

transparency and communication on the issue from both the government and the company has 

caused  high  concern  and outrage.  These  are  chemicals  where  scientific  knowledge  (at  least  to 

some  extent)  is  available.  But  there  are  many  other  chemicals  that  are  released  into  the 

environment  without  sufficient  understanding  of  the  impacts  on  the  ecosystem  or  on  human 

health. This is a key concern for the goal of achieving zero pollution and a non-toxic environment.  

Lack of action even when knowledge is sufficient, and lack of knowledge (and therefore impunity 

from action, almost) on a range of pollutants.  

On implications for social justice: Furthermore, those populations exposed to pollutants, including 

chemicals, are usually the most vulnerable populations. 

The  EEA  has  some  excellent  reports  on  exposure  to  pollutants  in  general  (on  chemicals,  see: 

https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/human/chemicals),  but  I  would  certainly  recommend  the 

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report  ‘unequal  exposure  and  unequal  impacts:  social  vulnerability  to  air  pollution,  noise  and 

extreme  temperatures  in  Europe’  https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/unequal-exposure-

and-unequal-impacts/  

4.  Will regenerative agriculture emerge as a key trend in Europe that helps deliver the 

zero-pollution agenda? 

Specific  review  questions  were  not  addressed  by  the  reviewer,  however  a  number  of  in-text 

comments and track-change edits were provided on Issue 4.  These were all incorporated in the 

final issue text. 

7.  An accelerating race to space: what will be the direct and indirect pollution impacts? 

The  reviewer  noted  that  they  found  the  description  of  risks  and  opportunities  described  quite 

comprehensive  and  complete,  that  they  have  no  further  elements  to  add  to  the  description 

provided. 

8.  The COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased interest in resilience.  Will a resilient 

Europe also be a zero pollution one? 

Three separate reviews were provided for Issue 8, with Review 1 being the primary reviewer’s 

opinion. 

Review 1 

There are many dimensions for resilience: environmental, human health, socio-economic, geo-

political.  Within  each  dimension,  there  are  several  sub-dimensions,  e.g.  infectious  or  non-

communicable diseases for human health. The question here is whether increasing resilience in 

one  dimension  may  decrease  it  in  other  dimensions  or  whether  we  can  find  options  where 

resilience increases in many dimensions. This reminds me of biological theories of ageing called 

antagonistic pleiotropy where a factor (could be a gene or some biological pathway) has a positive 

impact for some biological functions, e.g. development and reproduction, and at the same can 
lead to long-term toxicity and promote ageing45. So the question here is to identify factors leading 

to antagonistic resilience (favors one dimension at the expense of others) and those leading to 

combined  resilience  (those  that  support  resilience  in  more  than  one  dimension).  The  ultimate 

question is how to limit the former and promote the latter. 

Infectious diseases, vs Non Communicable Diseases (NCD). In environmental health the 

focus recently was on how environmental stressors and pollution can lead to NCDs and there was 

less focus on infectious diseases. This perspective has changed with the pandemic but also with 

increased knowledge on the impact of climate change. It should be revised now. Indeed,  

•  Climate  change  can  lead  to  increased  vector  borne-diseases,  water-borne  infectious 

diseases as well as NCDs.  

• 

Environmental factors (land use, air pollution) increase the risks of pandemics. It is now 

likely  that  the  emergence  of  pandemics  might  be  facilitated  by  increased  human-wild 

animal contacts and this is favored by deforestation and land use. Also air pollution could 

contribute to pandemic progression through aerosols and by contributing to pulmonary 

and cardiovascular diseases.  

•  NCDs have been shown to be the major risk factors for severe COVID-19 and therefore 
contribute significantly to the morbidity and mortality related to the infectious disease. 

Thus all environmental factors that increase the risks of NCDs (and there are many)also 

contribute to infectious disease.  

Thus, pollution prevention is not only useful for NCDs but is also part of the resilience strategies 

for pandemics. 

45 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antagonistic_pleiotropy_hypothesis 

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Climate  change  and  political  instability.  There  is  strong  evidence  suggesting  that  climate 

change  will  lead  to  drought  and  to  extreme  weather.  This  will  be  accompanied  by  increased 

climate-related  migration  pressure  and  therefore  political  instability  in  Europe.  Climate  change 

mitigation is likely to limit this risk for Europe and therefore be useful for environmental, health 

but also geo-political resilience. 

Environmental policies and social status. The most significant risk is likely to be the high cost 

of  environmentally-friendly  policies  for  the  lower  and  middle  class.  For  example,  carbon  tax, 

organic food, environmental regulations tend to increase cost of life, in particular for the poorer 

part of the population. Thus, the green recovery plan and actually any environmental policy should 

be accompanied by a social policy tending to decrease inequalities. 

Shifting  the  environmental  burden  with  new  technologies.  There  is  some  uncertainty 

concerning  the  global  environmental  burden  of  “green”  technologies  and  digitalization.  For 

example, the use of critical raw materials inn batteries and electronics has environmental impacts 

that should be weighed against their environmental advantages. There is a growing uncertainty 

in the population on these issues leading to skepticism and strong resistance (“electric cars may 

not be so good for the environment after all when the full life cycle is considered”, etc.). The same 

applies to urban mining. For this, clear communication by independent experts is needed. It is 

likely that we are facing decisions with antagonistic environmental impacts since we may need to 

compare environmental risks that are different (GHG, air pollution on one hand, toxic substances 

related  to  mining  and  overexploitation  of  raw  materials  on  the  other  hand).  Related  to  these 

issues is the shift of environmental burden from western countries to LMIC (e.g. mining activities).  

Waste  production  and  disinfection.  The  use  of  disposable  plastic  protection  will  increase 

plastic  waste.  Disinfectants  also  have  environmental  impacts.  Here  there  is  an  antagonism  in 

resilience efforts (health protection vs environmental pollution). However one has to distinguish 

between the healthcare professionals and vulnerable individuals for whom protection is a priority 

(and  disposables  are  advantageous)  and  the  global  population  for  whom  alternatives  to 

disposables (reusable protection) and to excessive use of disinfectants (just soap!) are available. 

And should be encouraged. 

Human  health  and  ecosystems  health.  Current  concepts  tend  to  highlight  the  close 

interactions between ecosystems health and human health (one health, planetary health, global 

health).  We  traditionally  study  environmental  impacts  on  human  health,  and  these  are  both 

negative  (pollution,  water  scarcity,  …)  and  positive  (green  and  blue  areas,  biodiversity,  etc.). 

However,  the  interaction  is  in  both  direction.  Indeed,  the  impacts  of  human  health  on  the 

environment cannot be dismissed: plastic disposables, medical drugs, environmental impacts of 
the healthcare sector46. This is a critical point. Although there is an increasing awareness of the 

medical  community,  this  may  split  the  population  along  different  priorities  (health  first  or 

environment first). Again, more research and better communication are needed to avoid as much 

as  possible  such  a  divide.  First,  the  interrelationship  between  human  health  and  ecosystems 

health can be highlighted: indeed, if human healthcare leads to environmental impacts, these in 

return may also have implications for human health. For example, antibiotics in the environment 

may lead to AMR and this in turn can lead to a backlash on human health. Second, efforts can be 

made  to  decrease  the  environmental  impacts  of  health  care  and  this  has  already  started,  for 

example by selecting certain medical drugs or in hospitals (use less endocrine disruptors, GHG, 

certain plastics, etc.). Third, there are cases where it will not be possible to further decrease the 

environmental  impact  of  the  healthcare  system  and  this  has  to  be  transparently  stated.  In  all 

cases,  if  there  is  a  suspicion  that  human  health  is  less  protected  because  of  environmental 

concerns, this may lead to a decreased support to environmental policies by a significant part of 

the population.  

46 Salas et al, BMJ, 2020 

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Review 2 

Question 1: Is the emerging issue identified likely to have the risks and/or opportunities described, 

or also additional ones? And if so, which ones? 

I agree in general with risks and opportunities described. However, I would suggest the following 

minor changes (marked also in the text below): 

• 

Emphasized more, in the introductory part, the linkage of new pandemics with the loss of 

biodiversity and climate change. 

•  Mention also in the introductory part that climate change promotes migration movements 
increasing  people  closer  contacts  with  new  habitats  and  wildlife  that  can  trigger  new 

pandemics due to spill over.  

•  Mention 

the 

link 

between 

pharmaceutical 

waste 

and 

AMR 

(10.3390/microorganisms7060180). 

• 

• 

In the risk related with the potential implication Long-term dealing with current and future 

health  crises  could  lead  to  increased  release  of  pharmaceuticals  into  the  environment 

consider to include the following reference: : DOI: 10.1515/aiht-2017-68-3005. 

In the risks and when it´s mention: This could hinder the EU’s zero pollution ambitions in 

relation  to  plastic,  general  and  hazardous  waste.”  It  should  also  be  mentioned:    And 

chemicals exposure due to the increase waste management needs of this waste stream. 

(https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aogh.2014.10.001)      

Question 2: In your view are there additional long-term development/s related to the issue that 

the issue description currently omits? If so, please describe them briefly. Do these development/s 

pose additional risks and/or opportunities? 

I do not identify additional long-term developments. 

Question 3: Are the described expected implications (positive or negative) for the environment 

and human health plausible, including the expected time-frame of emergence? 

I  agree  on  what  was  described.  I  only  added  minor  suggestions  [added  as  comments  on  the 

original text]. 

Review 3 

The text contains a lot of information of which the relevance for the purpose of this activity isn’t 

always obvious. The description of the topic is not always clear (the emerging issue that will be 
discussed) and the long text on page 1 does not define the ‘issue’. The 2nd paragraph seems to 

indicate that concerning the ‘emerging issue’ “it is likely that different aspects of resilience 

will  be  prioritised  at  certain  times  in  response  to  the  most  pressing  shocks  and 

challenges  the  EU  might  face”.  The  text  then  continues  with  “This  emerging  issue…”.  The 

supposed likeliness is not substantiated clearly enough or made plausible in the paper. This is not 

surprising since the EU’s resilience approach is not (yet) a policy but a principle. That fact should 

be clearly explained and discussed. The paper could then assume certain policy actions or impacts 

from resilience-thinking as a starting point for the analysis, however this is not elaborated. 

The  paper  does  not  mention  how  increased  resilience  could  become  a  risk  for  resource 

efficiency/circular economy, and the risks that are listed are not related to increased resilience 

(or the ambition to achieve that). 

Additionally, the section addressing the drivers for the emergence of the ‘issue’ (health, financial, 

climate  and  geopolitical  crises)  is  currently  a  list  of  top  known  emergencies.  The  text  should 

further explain how those relate to resilience and explore less known drivers. 

The reviewer advises for the paper to be reformulated, starting with a clear definition of the issue 

(including a definition of ‘resilience’), and in the following steps to come back to resilience as the 

supposed risk factor. This would help improving the flow and logic of the paper.  

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10. Our growing digital consumption could challenge the zero pollution ambition 

Question 1: Is the emerging issue identified likely to have the risks and/or opportunities described, 

or also additional ones? And if so, which ones?  

The Issue is well researched, and the risks and opportunities are well explained. Some risks may 

need  more  attention,  including  environmental  pollutions  associated  with  extraction  of  metals 

needed for the production of digital devices (e.g. lithium), their recycling and associated health 

and environmental risks. Exporting the e-waste to developing countries is neither a solution nor 

a strategy. What I found missing or only briefly covered are the many benefits & opportunities 

enabled  by  digital  devices,  such  as  better-informed  consumption  choices  (e.g.  smart  meters, 

digital  apps  estimating  individual  environmental  footprint  and  contributing  to  greater 

environmental  awareness),  efficiency  and  productivity  gains,  etc.  The  conclusions  drawn  from 

one-sided  evaluation  of  environmental  harms  (e.g.  higher  energy  and  material  use,  pollution) 

caused by the abuse of digital technologies may neglect the multiple, including environmental, 

benefits the use of these technologies makes possible. I agree that the assessment is complex, 

and it is even more complex to understand the full impacts of digital technologies on social process 

and communication.  

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the consumption of digital media and content may be 

rather short-lived. The adoption of digital technologies and spread of innovation follow a logistic 

(S-shaped)  distribution.  The  pandemic  might  have  accelerated  saturation,  but  it  has  unlikely 

increased the saturation level.  

Question 2: In your view are there additional long-term development/s related to the issue that 

the issue description currently omits? If so, please describe them briefly.  

The focus of the Issue is rather narrow and concentrated on environmental impacts of the digital 

"consumption".  Other  policy  relevant  themes  may  include  resource  and  digital  sovereignty, 

security  and  competitiveness.  From  long-term  perspective  it  is  important  to  understand  how 

digital transformation change our beliefs, perceptions, habits, and norms, as well as employment, 

inequalities,  health,  and  resource  efficiency.  The  environmental  footprint  of  these  changes  is 

equally important, if not more important, than material and energy footprint of digital devices.  

Question 3: Do these development/s pose additional risks and/or opportunities? Are the described 

expected  implications  (positive  or  negative)  for  the  environment  and  human  health  plausible, 

including the expected time-frame of emergence?  

Probably  both.  I  understand  that  the  Issue  focussed  on  how  to  reduce  the  marginal  negative 

environmental externalities/impacts caused by digital transformation, rather than focusing on how 

sustainable  are  digital  economies.  Still,  even  well-intentioned  policy  or  regulatory  intervention 

should consider the aggregate effects, including the induced or "propagated" effects across the 

many interconnected social and economic relations.       

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APPENDIX C  KEY TO ICONS USED IN ISSUE CLUSTERS 

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GETTING IN TOUCH WITH THE EU 

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February 2022  146