The green employment and skills transformation : insights from a European Green Deal skills forecast scenario.
Date: 2022-01-19
Institutions: Cedefop
Subjects: EU employment policy, EU growth strategy, ecodesign, economic transition, energy efficiency, environmental education, goods and services, green economy, greenhouse gas, investment policy, living conditions, professional qualifications, reduction of gas emissions, renewable energy, research, sustainable development, technological change, vocational education, vocational training

ENEurope 123, Thessaloniki (Pylea), GREECEPostal address: Cedefop service post, 570 01 Thermi, GREECETel. +30 2310490111, Fax +30 2310490020, Email: info@cedefop.europa.euvisit our portal www.cedefop.europa.eu4206 EN – TI-01-21-539-EN-N – doi:10.2801/112540 This report provides insight into likely employment and skills implications of the European Green Deal (EGD) based on a Cedefop skills forecast scenario. Implementing the EGD has a positive net employment impact. Employment effects appear to be concentrated in sectors directly target-ed, such as extraction industries, construction and waste management. Employment increases are forecast in service sectors such as engineering and administration. In most other sectors, a possible redirection of employment towards cleaner production rather than an employment change is forecast. Policy needs to focus on extensive accelerating of up- and reskilling and providing guidance and support to workers who will need to change occupa-tion, sector or geographic location. As well as targeted investment, developing transition-oriented skills matching approaches should also be a policy priority. THE GREEN EMPLOYMENTAND SKILLS TRANSFORMATIONInsights from a European Green Dealskills forecast scenarioENInsights from a European Green Dealskills forecast scenarioTHE GREEN EMPLOYMENTAND SKILLS TRANSFORMATIONThe green 
employment and 
skills transformation

Insights from a European 
Green Deal skills forecast 
scenario

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2021

Please cite this publication as:
Cedefop (2021). The green employment and skills 
transformation: insights from a European Green Deal skills 
forecast scenario. Luxembourg: Publications Office. 
http://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2801/112540

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The European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training 
(Cedefop) is the European Union’s reference centre for vocational education and 
training, skills and qualifications. We provide information, research, analyses and 
evidence on vocational education and training, skills and qualifications for policy-
making in the EU Member States. 
Cedefop was originally established in 1975 by Council Regulation (EEC) 
No 337/75. This decision was repealed in 2019 by Regulation (EU) 2019/128 
establishing Cedefop as a Union Agency with a renewed mandate.

Europe 123, Thessaloniki (Pylea), GREECE
Postal address: Cedefop service post, 57001 Thermi, GREECE
Tel. +30 2310490111, Fax +30 2310490020
Email: info@cedefop.europa.eu
www.cedefop.europa.eu

Jürgen Siebel, Executive Director
Nadine Nerguisian, Chair of the Management Board

Foreword

Alongside  digitalisation  and  automation  trends,  the  shift  towards  greener 
and more sustainable economies is a game changer in EU labour markets. 
Grounded in long-term transformative trends spanning several decades, the 
digital  and  green  transitions  are  picking  up  speed.  The  resulting  changes 
in  skill  needs  will  have  impacts  far  beyond  the  key  occupations  driving 
them, affecting all economic sectors. An important challenge for the coming
years is accelerating up- and reskilling so that people have the skills to thrive 
in more digital and greener jobs. The current EU vocational education and 
training  (VET),  employment  and  skills  policy  framework  emphasises  that  – 
ultimately – skills drive and shape the transitions to more digital and greener 
societies. VET plays a crucial role in facilitating just transitions because its 
hands-on  and  work-oriented  route  to  qualifications  provides  people  with 
skills the labour market needs, and career development opportunities in the 
emerging post-pandemic jobs market. 

When it comes to understanding, managing and shaping the digital and 
green transitions, reliable and trusted skills intelligence – information on labour 
market trends and skill needs – is indispensable. In the past decade, a lot of 
progress has been made in analysing the labour market and skills impacts 
of  digitalisation  and  automation.  The  same  cannot  be  said  for  greening. 
To  respond  to  a  growing  need  for  ‘green’  skills  intelligence,  systematically 
exploring the jobs and skills implications of the green transition is a priority 
for Cedefop. This work directly contributes to realising the ambitions of the 
European Green Deal (EGD) and is – as the two are strongly interrelated – also 
relevant to the digital transition. It builds on earlier analysis on green jobs and 
skills, an area Cedefop has been active in for over a decade.

The  work  also  contributes  to  our  ambition  of  developing  a  new 
generation  of  skills  intelligence  that  is  in  tune  with  trends  in  the  world 
of  work  and  in  society  more  broadly.  Cedefop’s  ‘next-generation’  skills 
intelligence  is  more  transition-focused  and  user-centred  and  fully  exploits 
the  potential  of  combining  sources  to  provide  better  and  more  actionable 
insights into what labour market trends mean for skills needs and learning. 
This report takes a macro-perspective to understanding the employment 
and  skills  implications  of  implementing  the  European  Green  Deal.  It  uses 

Foreword

5

Cedefop’s  skills  forecast  framework  to  build  a  scenario  that  looks  at  the 
sectoral  and  occupational  shifts  at  EU  level  that  would  likely  occur  if  the 
EGD  2030  50-55%  emission  reduction  target  were  fully  met.  The  scenario 
provides a model-driven image of a greener future. Scenario findings are not 
to be used as precise, definite answers but can provide the background and 
context needed to shape future-oriented VET, employment and skills policies. 
We hope policy-makers and other stakeholders will benefit from the insights 
this report presents and use its findings to shape evidence-informed up- and 
reskilling policies driving the green transition.

Jürgen Siebel
Executive Director

Antonio Ranieri 
Head of Department for VET 
and skills

 
6

Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements

This  publication  is  the  result  of  a  team  effort.  It  was 
produced  by  Cedefop,  Department  for  VET  and  skills, 
under  the  supervision  of  Jasper  van  Loo  and  Antonio 
Ranieri.  Cedefop  experts  Stelina  Chatzichristou  and 
Joanna  Napierala  drafted  the  main  text.  Cedefop  expert 
Ilias  Livanos  and  Panagiotis  Ravanos  (Cedefop  trainee) 
developed the empirical analysis and prepared first drafts 
of several report parts. Cedefop department coordinator 
Jasper  van  Loo  peer-reviewed  the  report  and  prepared 
it  for  publication.  The  research  this  publication  is  based 
on was conducted under the project Production of skills 
supply  and  demand  forecasts,  AO/DSL/VKVET/Skills 
forecasts/001/16.  Cedefop  would  like  to  acknowledge 
the contribution of the research team lead by Cambridge 
Econometrics.  Special  thanks  go  to  the  thematic  and 
sectoral experts who validated the scenario assumptions.

Contents

Foreword 
Acknowledgements 
Executive summary 

1. Introduction 

1.1.   Role of skills forecasts in preparing for change 
1.2.   Cedefop skills forecasts and scenarios 
1.3.   European Green Deal skills forecast scenario 

2. Scenario approach and method 

2.1.   Introduction  
2.2.   Scenario assumptions and caveats 

3. The EGD and employment 

3.1.   The employment impact of greening 
3.2.   Sectoral employment trends 

3.2.1.    Trends in broad sectors 
3.2.2.    Sectoral employment trends in detail   
3.2.3.    Trends in manufacturing sectors  

4. Trends in occupations 
4.1.   Broad trends 
4.2.   Occupational employment trends in detail  

5. Reflection and lessons for policy 
5.1.   Key scenario messages 
5.2.   Easing the green transition via up- and reskilling 
5.3.   Lessons for policy 
5.4.   Final word 

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References 

Web pages  

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Annexes                                                                                                       48

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
     
8

The green employment and skills transformation

Figures, tables and boxes

Figures

1.  Forecast employment impact of the EGD (% difference between 

22

EGD skills forecast scenario and baseline), EU-27

2.  Forecast employment impact of the EGD (% difference between 
EGD  skills  forecast  scenario  and  baseline)  by  broad  sector, 
EU-27

3.  Forecast  employment  impact  of  the  EGD  (difference  between 
EGD  skills  forecast  scenario  and  baseline  in  000s  and  %)  by 
detailed sector, EU-27

4.  Forecast  employment  impact  of  the  EGD  (difference  between 
EGD skills forecast scenario and baseline in %) by broad (ISCO 
1 digit) occupation, EU-27

26

27

31

5.  Forecast employment impact of the EGD (% difference between 

34

EGD skills forecast scenario and baseline) by skills level, EU-27

6.  Forecast  employment  impact  of  the  EGD  (difference  between 
EGD  skills  forecast  scenario  and  baseline  in  000s  and  %)  by 
detailed occupation, EU-27

Tables

1.  Forecast employment change by broad (ISCO 1 digit) occupation 
between  2020-30  in  the  baseline  and  the  EGD  skills  forecast 
scenario

2.  Forecast job creation and destruction in 2020-30 linked to EGD 
implementation in most heavily impacted sectors by occupation 
level  (difference  in  employment  levels  between  baseline  and 
EGD skills forecast scenario)

Boxes

1.  European Green Deal
2.  European Green Deal skills forecast scenario: main assumptions
3.  Methodology for identifying trends in occupations
4.  EGD impact on male and female labour market participation

35

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37

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 1Executive summary

With the adoption of the European Green Deal (EGD) as its growth strategy, 
the EU bolstered its commitment towards a more sustainable economy and 
society. As underlined by global leaders at the COP26, the green transition 
means  investing  in  bettering  the  lives  of  all  citizens  and  workers,  bringing 
about  new  jobs  and  better  opportunities  and  life  conditions.  As  with  all 
investment  policy  decisions,  understanding  future  trends  and  possible 
bottlenecks is crucial to facilitating the green transition. This is not only for 
making  policy  choices  prudently,  but  also  to  be  able  to  focus  on  success 
drivers and to build on existing green capacities in the economy and society.  
in 
technology,  design,  production,  services,  consumption  and  investment 
that it is impossible to achieve without sufficiently skilled people. The skills 
forecast  scenario  presented  in  this  report  looks  at  the  implications  of  the 
European  Green  Deal  from  a  vocational  education  and  training  (VET)  and 
skills  perspective.  Insights  into  the  main  green  transition  employment 
trends aim to inform policy-makers, social partners, education and training 
providers  and  individuals  about  where  up-  and  re-skilling  should  focus  to 
ease employment and career transitions. 

‘greener’  will  bring  about  such  profound  changes 

Becoming 

A key scenario finding  is that reaching the EGD  goals  is possible, with 
reasonable and attainable adjustment of relevant policies. The scenario also 
shows that the European Parliament’s more ambitious goal of 60% reduction 
in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 (compared to 1990) is also achievable 
with  a  reasonable  uptake  of  renewables  and  technologies  that  lead  to 
improved  energy  efficiency.  Over  the  entire  forecast  decade,  employment 
with the implementation of the EGD is higher than without it. The expected 
1.2%  additional  employment  growth  up  to  2030  associated  with  meeting 
the EGD targets, translates into approximately 2.5 million additional jobs in 
the EU. The fluctuation in additional employment growth at EU and sectoral 
level is likely a result of life cycles in implementing new technology. Expected 
additional employment growth is more pronounced in 2021-22, slows down 
in the middle of the decade and then accelerates from 2026 onwards. 

10

The green employment and skills transformation

Forecast sectoral employment trends

The  profound  effects  of  the  green  transition  are  evident  from  the  EGD’s 
forecast  impact  across  sectors,  at  various  intensities  and  directions. 
Unsurprisingly,  there  are  ‘winners’  and  ‘losers’,  with  sectors  more  directly 
linked  to  sustainability  and  climate  change  being  more  affected.  This 
concerns  water  supply  and  waste  management  (triggered  by  the  focus 
on  circular  economy),  utilities  (through  increased  recycling  activities) 
and  electricity  supply  (through  increased  demand  for  renewable  energy). 
Other  sectors  that  are  quite  strongly  impacted  include  manufacturing  of 
appliances/electrical equipment (as for the renewable electricity generation 
sector, or more-energy efficient appliances), construction, and the sectors 
that link to these via supply chains. The largest employment fall is forecast 
for coal mining and refined petroleum. EGD implementation is expected to 
increase  employment  in  several  service  sectors,  such  as  engineering  and 
administration. In most other sectors, a possible redirection of employment 
towards cleaner production rather than an employment increase or decrease 
is forecast.

Characteristics of the current sectoral workforce, coupled with expected 
employment  trends,  can  inform  policy  decisions  relevant  to  gender 
participation  and  training  uptake.  Gender  differences  in  employment  in 
green sector ‘champions’ such as engineering and construction, as well as 
in mining occupations, indicate a need for more up- and re-skilling towards 
different career pathways or to accommodate new tasks in skills profiles for 
male workers. 

Shifts and transitions

Implementing  the  EGD  is  expected  to  shift  the  sectoral  composition 
of  employment  in  the  EU  from  polluting  to  ‘cleaner’  sectors  and  boost 
employment  in  some  supporting  services,  albeit  to  a  limited  extent.  When 
used in a national or regional economic context, the scenario findings make 
it  possible  to  identify  opportunities  and  challenges  for  labour  market  and 
training policies.

More disaggregated sectoral analysis fosters understanding of the intra-
sectoral  employment  shifts  set  in  motion  by  the  green  transition.  In  most 

Executive summary

11

sectors, these are positive yet modest, while a few sectors are expected to 
experience  more  abrupt  structural  change.  In  sectors  with  mainly  indirect 
implications from the EGD, such as legal, accounting and consulting activities, 
small  positive  employment  effects  are  forecast.  These  can  nevertheless 
signal  important  priorities  for  re-  and  upskilling.  The  renovation  wave,  for 
example leads to a need to train environmental lawyers and architects.  

Manufacturing sectors will reflect the benefits of EGD implementation at 
different  speeds.  Clean  steel  technologies  will  ease  the  baseline  scenario 
employment decline and will require targeted training to take up technological 
changes.  The  take-off  of  the  circular  economy  is  expected  to  change  all 
processes  across  manufacturing  sectors.  In  electronics  this  creates  some 
additional employment growth by 2030 compared to the baseline scenario. 
In many other manufacturing sectors, employment changes are expected to 
be mild, with dynamics more likely to reflect intra-sectoral job-to-job mobility 
and up- or reskilling needs, rather employment flows between sectors. 

About  286  000  energy  sector  workers  (at  all  skill  levels)  may  need  to 
transition to a job in a greener sector. The commitment to phasing out fossil 
fuels,  as  also  emphasised  by  world  leaders  during  the  COP26,  requires 
both technological innovation and targeted VET provision to support those 
workers in making and shaping the energy transition. 

Driven  by  sectoral  and  other  trends,  some  occupations  will  face 
employment decline while others will see significant increases. Again, how 
employment evolves is strongly linked to the relevance of the occupation in 
sectors and its contribution to implementing the EGD goals. Most important, 
achieving the EGD does not only rely on high-skilled workers. The scenario 
results  identify  employment  gains  for  almost  all  occupational  categories, 
including  middle-skilled  ones  and  elementary  occupations.  The  green 
transition has potential to alleviate progressive job polarisation.  

VET policy decisions

The EGD scenario results demonstrate the importance of sectoral approaches 
in VET and skills policy and for integrated initiatives such as active labour 
market policies (ALMPs). Looking at the shifts within and across sectors and 
occupational  categories  uncovers  significant  up-  and  re-skilling  potential; 
this needs to be translated into action to ensure workers gain the skills to 

 
12

The green employment and skills transformation

remain  current  in  changing  occupations  or  to  transition  from  occupations 
and sectors in decline to greener jobs elsewhere. 

Besides training to accommodate employment flows, the EGD scenario 
urges policy-makers to pay attention to high-skilled occupations involved in 
developing green technologies, such as scientists and researchers. Although 
relatively  small  in  terms  of  employment  share,  these  occupations  are 
indispensable for achieving the green transition. The scenario also forecasts 
increasing employment in occupations that support such work or greening 
more  generally,  such  as  administration  professionals,  chief  executives, 
senior  officials  and  legislators,  administrative  and  commercial  managers, 
and information and communications technology professionals. 

The  findings  also  have  relevance  for  other  policy  areas.  The  forecast 
employment increase for low-skilled occupations calls for measures to attract 
workers  and  policies  to  alleviate  precarious  employment.  The  significant 
increase  in  jobs  for  high-skilled  workers  in  the  computing  sector  clearly 
shows digital skills not only enable the digital transition, but also the green 
transformation. This hints at the importance of taking a holistic perspective 
to VET and skills, which incorporates all relevant megatrends. Silo-thinking 
is a barrier to making the complex socioeconomic transformation that is the 
green transition a success. 

ChAPTER 1. 

Introduction

1.1. 

 Role of skills forecasts in preparing for 
change

Skills  forecasts  play  a  crucial  role  in  facilitating  and  shaping  change  and 
transitions, as they provide evidence-based insight into labour market trends 
and  a  range  of  other  societal  developments  and  their  implications.  Their 
current  use  goes  far  beyond  policy  domains  they  traditionally  targeted  in 
the past, such as employment and education and training. Decision-makers 
in other policy domains (innovation, greening, migration and others) benefit 
from the future- and change-oriented perspective on the world of work that 
skills forecasts offer. Employers and sectors can use forecasts to anticipate 
future skills shortages and for developing training programmes and human 
resources  policies  to  promote  skills  development  and  utilisation.  Provided 
results are made accessible and presented in a user-friendly way, forecasts 
are  an  important  support  to  individuals  in  making  education,  training  and 
career choices.

Skills  forecasts  provide  indications  about  future  trends,  not  exact 
predictions.  They  are  not  to  be  used  mechanistically,  for  example  to 
determine  the  precise  numbers  of  graduates  needed  from  the  education 
system to meet labour demand (Cedefop, 2021a). As they are rooted in past 
trends, forecasts tend to be more accurate in times when such trends can 
be expected to continue along stable trajectories. Shocks in the economy, 
caused  by  an  economic  crisis  or  unexpected  events  like  the  COVID-19 
pandemic or significant changes in policies make it challenging to forecast 
what is likely to happen in the future. 

This does not mean that skills forecasts are not useful in times of rapid 
change. Using them can be quite insightful for gaining deeper understanding 
of the impact of accelerating trends or shocks and isolating their impact by 
comparing alternative forecast outcomes with what would have happened 
in  the  ‘business  as  usual’  case.  Comparative  analysis  of  trends  and  the 
impact  of  shocks  on  labour  markets,  employment  and  skills,  and  the 

14

The green employment and skills transformation

interrelationships  between  them  is  a  value-added  of  skills  forecasts.  Such 
insights support decision-makers tasked with policy-making in employment, 
education, skills development and related policy areas in making informed 
choices in a rapidly evolving context.

1.2. 

 Cedefop skills forecasts and scenarios

Cedefop  skills  forecasts  provide  comprehensive  and  timely  information 
about the current structure, and future trends, of the EU labour market (1). 
Typically  incorporating  data  and  assumptions  spanning  several  decades, 
skills  forecasts  capture  the  long-term  and  stable  structural  megatrends 
that  continuously  shape  and  reshape  the  labour  market.  These  include 
technological  change,  globalisation,  the  shift  towards  more  service-
based economies, demographic shifts such as population ageing, and the 
increasing education level of the population. Use of common methodology 
and  harmonised  information  makes  it  possible  to  assess  and  compare 
employment  trends  in  sectors,  occupations  and  qualification  levels  in 
Member States and the Union as a whole (Cedefop, 2021b).

The  skills  forecasts  are  an  important  building  block  of  labour  market 
and skills intelligence (LMSI, also referred to as ‘skills intelligence’) and an 
invaluable tool for European policy-making. Alongside providing information 
that  supports  the  monitoring  and  implementation  of  flagship  EU  policy 
initiatives  such  as  the  Skills  Agenda  (2),  the  EU  VET  policy  framework  (3) 
and  the  European  Pillar  for  Social  Rights  (4),  the  forecast  also  plays  an 
important role in assessing the future labour market impact of implementing 
EU priorities.

Skills  forecast  scenarios  are  particularly  useful  for  reflecting  on  the 
employment impact of change that breaks with the past because it is caused 
by  unexpected  events,  an  acceleration  of  (technological  or  other)  trends, 
important  shifts  in  policies,  or  a  combination  of  such  shocks  (see  also 

(1)   For more details on Cedefop’s skills forecast, the methodology, publications, data and 

information, visit the project page. 

(2)   European Skills Agenda for sustainable competitiveness, social fairness and resilience (2020).
(3)   See the Osnabrück Declaration on vocational education and training for transition to digital and 
green economies (Osnabrück Declaration, 2020) and the Council Recommendation on VET 
for sustainable competitiveness, social fairness and resilience (Council of the European Union, 
2020). 

(4)  See the European Pillar of Social rights.

ChAPTER 1.
Introduction

15

Cedefop, 2021a). Such scenarios incorporate assumptions about what could 
be their possible economic and labour market impacts, which are typically 
based  on  qualitative  expert  assessment.  Skills  forecast  scenario  building 
involves varying these and possibly other assumptions and subsequently re-
estimating the forecast model to arrive at one or more alternative forecasts. 
Comparing these with the baseline – or ‘business as usual’ – forecast makes 
it possible to gain insight into the magnitude and direction of impact of the 
changes the scenario sets out to explore (5).

1.3. 

 European Green Deal skills forecast scenario

Trends  towards  a  greener  and  more  sustainable  economy  have  been 
considered in Cedefop’s skills forecast framework and have been reported 
on  for  over  a  decade  (see  e.g.  Cedefop,  2010).  The  European  Green  Deal 
(EGD)  and  its  ambitious  actions  (Box  1)  clearly  signal  a  break  with  the 
green policies and frameworks of the recent past. Given its comprehensive 
nature and far-reaching ramifications, the EGD’s potential impact on future 
employment  is  not  fully  reflected  in  the  latest  skills  forecast,  which  was 
finalised in December 2019 before the EGD was announced.

The EGD relies on the implementation of a broad range of policies and 
targeted investments. The impact of the transition to a green economy will 
transcend  the  sectors  more  directly  linked  to  sustainability  and  climate 
change. Not only sectors such as energy (especially renewables), transport, 
manufacturing 
iron),  construction, 
agriculture, and waste management, but also others will be impacted, albeit 
at various intensities.

(especially  automotive,  steel  and 

(5)  As part of the 2020 skills forecast, Cedefop has carried out several forecast scenarios to reflect 

on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the automation of work, as well as a qualitative 
assessment of the possible employment effects of green policies similar to those of the EGD 
(e.g. Paris Agreement, energy efficiency of buildings, circular economy) as estimated by previous 
studies. See Cedefop (2021b).

 
16

The green employment and skills transformation

Box 1.  European Green Deal

• It is the European Union’s answer to the growing problem of climate change and  

its repercussions and at the same time the bloc’s growth strategy.

• It addresses the need to take immediate action to secure a better life for its citizens 

and for future generations.

• It sets the target to become the world's first climate-neutral continent by 2050.
The EGD priorities communicate the ambition to transform the Union into a modern, 
resource-efficient and competitive economy, where:
a) there are no net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050;
b) economic growth is decoupled from resource use;
c) no person and no place are left behind.

Source:  The European Green Deal. 

Measuring  the  resulting  employment  effects  of  the  green  transition 
is  challenging  because  it  requires  simultaneously  evaluating  all  policies 
introduced and their direct and indirect economic and labour market impacts 
and interactions. The EGD skills forecast scenario presented in this report 
uses Cedefop’s forecast framework to capture the likely employment effects 
in the EU-27 until 2030 of achieving the 50-55% emission reduction target, 
the overarching EGD ambition. The sectoral and occupational analysis aims 
to  provide  EU  policy-makers  with  evidence-based  insight  and  valuable 
feedback  that  will  support  the  design  and  implementation  of  up-  and 
reskilling policies to accompany the green transition. 

ChAPTER 2. 

Scenario approach and 
method

2.1. 

 Introduction 

Achieving  the  EGD  goals  will  change  sectoral  employment  levels  and 
structure. As the new green paradigm calls for new approaches to production, 
design, development and use of materials, products and services, intra- and 
inter-sectoral changes in labour demand will be accompanied by changes 
in demand for occupations and skills. The occupational shifts implied by the 
green transition create significant demand for training and learning.

Equipping  current  and  future  workers  with  the  necessary  skills  is  a 
precondition for a just green transition. Yet, the scale of up- and reskilling 
needed in the EU for the green transition is uncertain, as several interrelated 
trends will create training and skilling needs:
(a) transition-oriented re-skilling will be needed for people whose skills will 
become  obsolete  as  they  are  in  declining  sectors  or  occupations  (e.g. 
coal mining and manufactured fuels); 

(b) enough  young  people  and  adults  will  need  to  be  trained  to  meet 
increasing  demand  for  established  ‘green’  occupations  (including  solar 
panel  installers  and  technicians  who  install,  maintain,  relocate  and 
decommission  meteorological  towers  and  equipment  to  measure  the 
potential of wind energy); 

(c) in occupations where the green transition does not fundamentally change 
tasks, upskilling will suffice (e.g. as the automotive sector transitions to 
producing electric vehicles); 

(d) new and emerging occupations linked to new ‘green’ products, such as 
the (R&D) jobs/skills required to produce hydrogen-based energy (6) and 
to  processes,  such  as  carbon  trading  analysts,  green  marketers,  and 

(6)  See Bezdek (2019).

18

The green employment and skills transformation

chief  sustainability  officers  (7)  and  green  ICT  consultants  (8)  will  require 
new programme and curriculum design.

Cedefop’s EGD skills forecast scenario provides insight into impacts of the 
European  Green  Deal  from  a  vocational  education  and  training  (VET)  and 
skills  perspective.  It  looks  at  the  sectoral  employment  consequences  of 
the most important policies  the  EGD  encompasses.  The  resulting  sectoral 
trends are used as a starting point for further analysis to inform evidence-
based policy.

2.2. 

 Scenario assumptions and caveats

The scenario assumptions incorporate information from various Commission 
communications on the sectors most targeted by the EGD and from carbon 
emissions  reduction  and  sustainable  economy  policies  (Box  2).  These 
assumptions form the basis of the EGD scenario (9). To isolate the potential 
effects of the EGD and the resulting accelerating green transition from other 
megatrends, EGD scenario outcomes are compared with the pre-pandemic 
(baseline) Cedefop skills forecast (10).

(7)  See Occupational listings: green new and emerging occupations.
(8)  See ESCO (2020).
(9)  See Annex 2 for an overview detailing the main assumptions underlying the EGD scenario.
(10)  For more information see Cedefop (2021b) and the skills forecast project page. 

ChAPTER 2.
Scenario approach and method

19

Box 2.  European Green Deal skills forecast scenario: main 

assumptions

• Scenario assumptions relate to the achievement of the 50-55% emission reduction 
target by 2030, sector- or technology-specific policies contributing to the emission 
reduction target, and circular economy plans. 

• The  assumptions  incorporate  increased  energy  efficiency  (compared  to  baseline 
projections) and the cost needed to achieve it – linked to the Renovation wave, 
changes in the EU emissions trading system aimed at accelerating the renewable 
energy transition in road transport, and policies encouraging less carbon-intensive 
technology.

• The impacts of future price increases of polluting energy sources (through taxation) 

on road transport and buildings are also incorporated (11).

• Assumptions  relating  to  the  circular  economy  plan  include  increased  recycling 
rates in sectors with high resource usage (e.g. electronics, plastics, vehicles) and 
harmonisation of the waste collection and management systems across the EU. 
• The scenario analysis was carried out using the E3ME model assuming an am-
bitious implementation of the EGD, namely that the climate ambition targets set 
by 2050 are met. Following the European Parliament’s more ambitious target, the 
2030 emission reduction target was set at 60% (12). 

• The  scenario  estimates  aggregate  (EU-27)  sectoral  employment  from  2020  to 

2030.

Source:  Cedefop.

Designing and implementing fit-for-purpose up- and reskilling opportuni-
ties  for  workers  also  requires  understanding  of  expected  occupational 
developments. Occupational trend analysis gives insight into whether EGD 
implementation leads to an upsurge in highly skilled employment or fosters 
job  polarisation.  Such  information  can  also  inform  vocational  education 
and training (VET), employment and skills policy. The EGD scenario did not 
include assumptions on developments at occupational level. Therefore, in an 
attempt to gain some understanding of the underlying trends, the sectoral 
developments resulting from the EGD have been ‘translated’ to occupational 
trends (Box 3).

(11)  As the recent revision of the European Commission’s Energy Tax Directive was agreed after the 
scenario was developed, it could not be reflected in its assumptions. See the relevant proposal 
(European Commission, 2021a).

(12)  See the relevant European Parliament press release (European Parliament, 2020).

 
20

The green employment and skills transformation

As  with  any  scenario,  the  range  of  factors  considered,  assumptions 
made, and the modelling choices do not reflect reality, but rather a model-
driven approximation of it. 

Box 3.  Methodology for identifying trends in occupations

1.  The EGD scenario (% differences in sectoral employment from the baseline) and 
the baseline skills forecast employment levels (000s) were used to calculate 
EGD sectoral employment levels (000s);

2.  For each detailed NACE sector and for every year (2020-30), the employment 
shares of ISCO-2-digit occupations in the baseline scenario were obtained;
3.  Occupation-by-sector  employment  in  levels  (000s)  in  the  EGD  scenario  was 
obtained by multiplying sectoral employment (see 1) by the occupational shares 
(see 2);

4.  Occupational employment levels (000s) were obtained by aggregating across 

sectors; 

5.  The change in occupational employment was obtained by comparing the base-
line  employment  by  occupation  with  employment  by  occupation  in  the  EGD 
scenario (see 4).

Source:  Cedefop.

The most important caveats applying to analysis based on the EGD skills 

forecast scenario cover several aspects.
(a) Currency: the scenario considers European Commission announcements, 
communications, amendments of previous directives and new ones until 
the  time  of  modelling  (late  October  2020).  Any  later  announcements  or 
communications have not been considered. 

(b) Completeness: while covering the essence and main policy aims of the 
EGD,  the  scenario  does  not  cover  all  EGD  policy  areas.  Policies  not 
considered  include  Farm-to-fork  strategy  (13),  better  product  design, 
empowering consumers, sustainable and smart mobility, and preserving 
and protecting biodiversity.

(13)  Agriculture could not be included in the EGD scenario. The EGD has a silent impact on 

employment levels but changes skills demand. The Farm-to-fork strategy promotes farming 
practices to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, which requires knowledge and skills on carbon-
reducing practices, sustainable farming, waste management and waste-to-energy technology. 
See the relevant European Commission Communication (European Commission, 2020a)

ChAPTER 2.
Scenario approach and method

21

(c) Level of analysis: the scenario considers employment levels and trends 
at the EU-27 aggregate level. It is obvious that the impact of the EGD will 
vary significantly across Member States and regions (14). In regions with 
a strong presence of sectors that are expected to be severely negatively 
affected (e.g. mining) the need for timely and targeted employment and 
skills transition policies will be higher than in regions with different sectoral 
employment structures. 

(d) Scope:  the  scenario  models  the  EGD  impact  on  sectoral  but  not 
occupational  employment.  The  impact  on  occupations  has  been 
calculated  using  the  occupational  shares  within  each  sector  obtained 
from the skills forecast baseline scenario for the years 2020 to 2030. This 
implies an assumption that the occupational distribution of employment 
in sectors will not shift as a result of implementing the EGD (15). 

(14)  See the relevant opinion factsheet of the European Committee of the Regions: The impact of 

climate change on regions: an assessment of the European Green Deal and The Just Transition 
Mechanism.

(15)  This is a strong assumption, as preliminary studies suggest the green transition is likely to shift 
the occupational distribution in certain sectors (see the discussion section in Chapter 5 for 
more details). Nevertheless, in the absence of empirical estimates of such shifts, assuming the 
occupational distributions will not shift significantly appears to be a reasonable approach.

 
ChAPTER 3. 

The EGD and employment

3.1. 

 The employment impact of greening

The  2020  baseline  (pre-COVID-19)  skills  forecast  projected  increasing 
employment in the European Union. Between 2020 and 2030, employment 
in the EU-27 was expected to increase by around 3.7%. The EGD scenario 
suggests the implementation of policies supporting it will increase GDP in 
the  EU  by  around  1.7%  (in  2030,  compared  to  the  baseline)  and  lead  to 
additional employment growth (16). In the entire forecast period, employment 
with the implementation of the EGD is higher than without it (Figure 1). 

Figure 1.  Forecast employment impact of the EGD (% difference  

between EGD skills forecast scenario and baseline), EU-27

1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00

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2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Source:  Cedefop skills forecast, 2020 baseline and EGD scenario estimates.

Forecast employment growth in 2030 is approximately 1.2% higher than 
if the EGD emission target was not met. This amounts to around 2.5 million 
additional jobs in the EU. While greening the EU economy will certainly lead 

(16)  This is in line with previous forecasts (see Eurofound, 2019; ILO, 2019).

 
 
 
 
ChAPTER 3.
The EGD and employment

23

to shrinking employment in several sectors heavily impacted by it, overall the 
EGD will result in net job creation. 

An  important  conclusion  of  the  EGD  scenario  is  that  it  is  economically 
feasible to meet the target of 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 
2030  (compared  to  1990  levels)  with  reasonable  uptake  of  renewables  and 
technologies that lead to improved energy efficiency. On top of the obvious 
economic  and  employment  benefits,  the  emissions  reduction  (the  scenario 
anticipates carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions declining by almost 40% compared 
to the baseline) will improve EU citizens’ wellbeing, because it contributes to 
better health and improved air quality and reduces environmental degradation. 
Employment  growth  compared  to  the  baseline  appears  to  be  larger  in 
2021-22, slows down in the middle of the decade and then accelerates from 
2026 onwards. This is compatible with well-known theories on the life cycle 
of  implementing  new  technologies.  Employment  will  initially  be  boosted  as 
a  result  of  implementing  green  projects  (including  renovating  buildings, 
constructing new recycling plants, shifting factory technology to clean energy-
based).  When  other  technologies  reach  the  implementation  stage  some 
years later, their diffusion across sectors creates additional employment, for 
example in new recycling facilities or waste-water management systems. Over 
the forecast period, labour market participation is expected to grow, although 
gender differences are apparent (Box 4).

3.2. 

 Sectoral employment trends

To  achieve  the  zero-carbon  target  by  2050,  the  EGD  focuses  on  energy-
power generation and use, buildings, waste management and other parts of 
the manufacturing sector (such as recycling, plastics and electronics). This 
creates an expectation that employment changes linked to the EGD will be 
most pronounced in the sectors active in such activities.

In  the  EGD  scenario,  the  sectors  that  are  expected  to  see  the  largest 
employment  gains  are  utilities  (through  increased  recycling  activities), 
electricity  supply  (through  increased  demand  for  renewable  energy), 
manufacturing  of  appliances/electrical  equipment  (e.g.  for  the  renewable 
electricity  generation  sector,  or  more-energy  efficient  appliances), 
construction, and the sectors that link to these via supply chains. 

Besides the expected direct impact, the interconnectedness of economic 
activities  through  supply  chains  also  creates  expectations  for  the  indirect 

 
24

The green employment and skills transformation

impact  of  the  green  transition  on  employment  in  other  sectors.  Changes 
in  the  profile  of  energy  production  will,  for  example,  create  jobs  (and  new 
occupations) in firms supplying new technologies. This effect is substantial. 
The EGD scenario forecasts employment growth to be 1% higher by 2030 
compared to the baseline for service-based sectors, such as information and 
communication, real estate, professional, scientific and technical activities, 
and administrative and support service activities sectors.

Box 4.  EGD impact on male and female labour market participation

• The European Green Deal appears to lead to increasing labour market participation. 
While both male and female participation is expected to grow, a larger increase in 
male participation is expected in 2021-26 (see Figure below). This is because, in 
this period, the expected fall in consumer activity impacts mainly service sectors, 
which have a higher female employment share. 

• Sectors benefiting directly from the policies implemented to achieve the EGD tar-
get, such as engineering, construction, electricity supply and recycling, are more 
male dominated (see also EIGE, 2012). The same holds for sectors and occupations 
that are expected to be most negatively affected (e.g. mining).

• This suggests most up- and reskilling to accommodate new job creation and real-

location in other sector(s) will concern male workers (see also ILO, 2019).

• With activity in service sectors picking up by the end of the forecast horizon, the 

increase in female participation is expected to start nearing that of males. 

• These trends underline the importance of attracting more female learners to ‘tra-
ditionally’ male-dominated education and training tracks, such as engineering. The 
resulting more equal female representation in the labour market and associated 
social benefits would contribute transversally to the EGD goals.

Figure: EU change in labour force, absolute difference from baseline, 000s

e
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350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Male           Female

Source:  Cedefop skills forecast, 2020 baseline and EGD scenario estimates.

 
 
 
ChAPTER 3.
The EGD and employment

25

 Trends in broad sectors

3.2.1. 
No broad sector appears to lose out in terms of employment as a result of 
implementing the EGD by 2030 (Figure 2). Some sectors, however, benefit 
much  more  than  others.  Employment  in  the  primary  sector  and  utilities 
and  construction  shows  the  most  notable  increases.  Utilities  (17)  drive  the 
employment increase in the broader sector it is part of. This can be attributed 
to  increased  recycling  and  increasing  employment  in  electricity  supply. 
Employment in provision of gas is expected to fall because the push towards 
increased energy efficiency will lead to lower production.

In  the  construction  sector,  which  plays  a  pivotal  role  in  achieving  the 
green transition, employment is expected to increase initially by about 1.2% 
(possibly to cover staff needs when major new construction and renovation 
projects  begin).  The  trend  accelerates  in  2027  and  employment  growth 
reaches a level in 2030 that is 3.6% higher than in the baseline. This trend 
may  be  attributed  to  the  wider  diffusion  of  EGD  policies  (in  particular  the 
renovation wave) affecting the sector (18).

Constructing  energy-efficient  buildings  will  require  workers  to  be  more 
aware of eco-friendly materials and technologies. An estimated 3 to 4 million 
construction  workers  in  various  occupations  such  as  heat  pump  boiler 
installers,  carpenters  and  joiners,  bricklayers,  and  technicians  will  require 
training  on  energy  efficiency  and  renewable  energy  sources.  Construction 
workers  are  often  found  to  lack  knowledge  on  how  to  reuse  and  recycle 
industrial/construction waste (ECSO, 2020).

(17)  Including: electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning, and water supply.
(18)  See European Commission (2020b).

 
26

The green employment and skills transformation

Figure 2.  Forecast employment impact of the EGD (% difference  

between EGD skills forecast scenario and baseline) by broad 
sector, EU-27

e
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11.00

9.00

7.00

5.00

3.00

1.00

-1.00

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Primary sector & utilities
Construction
Business & other services

Manufacturing
Distribution and transport
Non-marketed services

Source:  Cedefop skills forecast, 2020 baseline and EGD scenario estimates.

 Sectoral employment trends in detail  

3.2.2. 
To understand the intra-sectoral employment shifts set in motion by the green 
transition, the scenario information must be viewed at more disaggregated 
level. The brunt of the employment impact of the EGD is concentrated in a 
few sectors. In most others the shifts are modest, albeit positive (Figure 3).

 
 
 
 
ChAPTER 3.
The EGD and employment

27

Figure 3.  Forecast employment impact of the EGD (difference 

between EGD skills forecast scenario and baseline in 000s 
and %) by detailed sector, EU-27

Water supply & waste management
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Administrative and support services
Electricity
Basic metals & metal products
Health
Accomodation & catering
Legal, accounting & consulting
Architectural & engineering
Computer programming, information services
Education
Public administration & defence
Market research & other professional activities
 Optical and electronic equipment
Electronical equipment
Land transport
Motor vehicles
Food, drink & tobacco
Other machinery & equipment
Wood, paper, print, publishing
Warehousing and postal services
Financial and insurance activities
Agriculture etc
Other chemicals
Real estate activities
Manufacturing nes
Media
Research & development
Telecommunications
Arts and entertainment
Air transport
Textiles, clothing & leather
Water transport
Other transport equipment
Pharmaceuticals
Rubber/non-metallic mineral products
Mining and quarrying
Gas, steam & air conditioning
Coke and refined petroleum

            -0.6%
       -11.0%  
       -20.9%
-11.5%  

                                                               +63.2%   
                                +3.8%
              +0,6%
          +1.2%
         +17.2%
      +2.2%
      +0.4%
      +0.8%
     +1.3%
     +2.6%
    +1.8%
   +0.3%
   +0.3%
   +1.6%
  +3.2%
  +2.2%
  +0.4%
 +0.9%
 +0.5%
+0.7%
+0.9%
+0.4%
+0.3%
+0.1%
+1.1%
+0.3%
+0.3%
+0.4%
+0.2%
+0.3%
+0.1%
+0.6%
+0.1%
+0.6%
+0.2%
+0.2%

-300

0

300

600

900

NB:  The percentages indicate the difference in forecast employment growth or decline (in %) between EGD and  

baseline scenario. Dark shaded bars indicate substantial differences (+/- 10% or more).

Source:  Cedefop skills forecast, 2020 baseline and EGD scenario estimates.

 
 
28

The green employment and skills transformation

The scenario gives valuable insight into the employment implications of 
the  energy  transition.  Mining  and  quarrying,  coke  and  refined  petroleum, 
and gas, steam and air-conditioning are most negatively impacted by EGD 
implementation.  The  forecast  employment  decline  in  these  three  sectors 
is 286 000 jobs (on top of the baseline forecast). With 27% fewer workers 
by  2030  (compared  to  16%  in  baseline  scenario  projections),  phasing  out 
coal  is  set  to  accelerate  the  employment  decline  in  mining  and  quarrying. 
Compared  to  the  baseline,  the  employment  fall  set  in  motion  by  the  shift 
towards renewables is more than four times higher in the coke and refined 
petroleum sector and almost double in the gas, steam and air-conditioning 
sector. Employment in the electricity sector is forecast to increase by 197 
000 jobs by the end of the decade, almost four times what was forecast in 
the baseline scenario.

Water  supply  and  waste  management  appear  to  benefit  most  from  the 
EGD.  While  employment  in  this  sector  trends  slightly  downward  in  the 
baseline  forecast,  the  EGD  scenario  forecasts  an  employment  increase  of 
over 60% between 2020 and 2030. Beyond avoiding the job losses forecast 
in  the  baseline,  implementing  the  EGD  is  expected  to  create  around  941 
000 additional jobs. This can be attributed to increasing employment in the 
design  of  waste  management  and  sustainable  water  (re)use  facilities  and 
their operation. The main aims set out in the Circular economy action plan 
(European Commission, 2020c) – harmonising the separate waste collection 
systems across the EU, minimising the presence of harmful substances in 
waste  water,  and  re-use  and  recycle  policies  affecting  the  sector  –  drive 
these trends (European Commission (2020c). 

The  EGD  impact  on  employment  in  other  sectors  is  predominantly 
indirect. Employment in administrative activities is forecast to grow by 8.4% 
until the end of this decade, 1.2% more than in the baseline projections. This 
likely  reflects  the  fact  that  national  level  implementation  of  green  policies 
requires  appropriate  institutional  capacity  and  preparedness.  This  ranges 
from  planning,  development  of  ‘green’  standards,  to  monitoring  policy 
implementation and even green procurement (European Commission, 2016). 
Employment growth in legal, accounting and consulting activities in 2020-
30 is forecast to be 1.3% higher (8.7% against 7.4% in the baseline), while 
in  architecture  and  engineering  it  is  2.7%  higher  (7.7%  versus  5%).  This 
reflects increased demand for professionals supporting the implementation 
of EGD policies, such as architects for the renovation wave, engineers for 
designing  circular  economy  processes  and  environmental  lawyers.  The 

ChAPTER 3.
The EGD and employment

29

forecast  employment  increase  in  computer  programming  (+1.8%)  likely 
reflects automation/robotics trends and shows the digital transition fuels the 
green transition. 

 Trends in manufacturing sectors 

3.2.3. 
The  investment  needed  to  achieve  decarbonisation,  foster  recycling  and 
introduce  clean  steel  breakthrough  technologies  in  the  steel  and  related 
metals  sector  will  ease  significantly  the  baseline  scenario  employment 
decline  in  the  basic  metals  sector,  implying  that  about  100  000  jobs  will 
likely not be lost by 2030. Also, intensifying reuse and recycle practices in 
the  production  of  electronics  and  electrical  equipment  such  as  batteries 
are expected to create additional employment growth by 2030 (+3.2% and 
+2.2% respectively compared to the baseline forecast).

The motor vehicles sector is only expected to gain an additional 1% in 
employment  (around  23  000  jobs)  in  the  EGD  scenario  compared  to  the 
baseline. This is likely the result of the sector being a forerunner in investing 
in  robotics,  automation  and  artificial  intelligence,  paving  the  way  for  the 
green  transition  long  before  the  EGD  was  ratified.  By  2020  many  vehicle 
manufacturers had already made necessary changes in production and hired 
new workers or trained their staff to shift towards making electric engines and 
electronic vehicles. As the sector is relatively well-prepared for the changes 
the  EGD  promotes,  and  appears  well  placed  to  use  the  opportunities 
automation  offers,  there  is  no  immediate  need  to  increase  employment  (19). 
Once  electronic  vehicles  become  the  norm  in  the  more  distant  future, 
employment  could  decrease  while  increasing  use  of  AI  technology  could 
shift professional profiles and increase digital skills needs (20).

In  most  other  manufacturing  sectors  EGD  policies  do  not  appear 
significantly  to  affect  future  employment  trends  (see  Figure  3).  This  is  an 
important  and  policy-relevant  scenario  finding,  as  it  suggests  many  shifts 
in employment and skills linked to the green transition are expected within 

(19)  The impact of the switch from internal combustion to electric vehicles will most likely vary 
depending on the degree of automation, the pace of change within the sector and the 
competitive position of the EU automotive sector globally (CISL, 2020; ETUI, 2019; European 
Commission, 2017b).

(20)  As electric cars are mechanically simpler than traditional ones, with estimates showing 30% 

fewer hours are needed to manufacture them, the automotive industry might face considerable 
job losses in the future. The demand for digital skills and high-skilled workers may follow the 
‘east-west’ divide in the 2010-20 employment growth pattern in the sector. See Renew Europe 
(2020)  and Cedefop (2021c).

 
30

The green employment and skills transformation

manufacturing  sectors  via  intra-sectoral  job-to-job  mobility  and  up-  or 
reskilling, rather than to or from them. 

To  make  and  shape  the  green  transition,  workers  in  manufacturing  will 
need ‘green’-ignited up- or re-skilling. Like construction firms, manufacturing 
companies  must  significantly  reduce  their  carbon  footprint,  pollution 
and  waste  and  increase  recycling.  They  will  be  motivated,  incentivised  or 
obliged to introduce environmentally friendly production techniques and to 
start  thinking  about  their  products  in  a  circular  way  so  that  they  become 
more  reusable,  durable  and  repairable.  This  will  create  the  need  to  train 
professionals  involved  in  product  design  (such  as  appliances,  machines 
or  vehicles)  and  workers  involved  in  product  repair.  From  a  longer-term 
perspective, widespread staff training may be a precondition for employment 
growth  in  manufacturing  to  materialise.  In  case  many  companies  choose 
to  ‘buy’  the  skills  and  expertise  they  need  to  bring  green  and  innovative 
technologies to their plants and outsource technology design and installation,  
any employment gains will likely occur elsewhere (21).

Implementing  the  EGD  is  expected  to  shift  the  sectoral  composition 
of  employment  in  the  EU  from  polluting  to  ‘cleaner’  sectors  and  boost 
employment  in  some  supporting  services,  albeit  to  a  limited  extent.  When 
used in a national or regional economic context, the scenario findings make 
it  possible  to  identify  opportunities  and  challenges  for  labour  market  and 
training policies (see also Chapter 5).

(21)  See Cameron et al. (2021) on the decarbonisation road map for the food and drink 

manufacturing sector or BOF and McKinsey Company (2020) on the situation in the fashion 
industry.

ChAPTER 4. 

Trends in occupations

4.1. 

 Broad trends

Employment  appears  to  benefit  (at  least  slightly)  from  the  transition 
towards a carbon-neutral economy in most broad occupational categories 
(Figure  4)  (22).  The  employment  gains  are  slightly  more  pronounced  for 
some of the medium- and low-skilled occupations. The forecast additional 
employment growth by 2030 is highest for crafts and related trade workers 
(+1.7%)  and  plant  and  machine  operators  and  assemblers  (+1.6%)  and 
in  elementary  occupations  (+1.4%).  Among  high-skilled  occupations, 
employment  is  set  to  increase  most  for  legislators,  senior  officials  and 
managers  (+1.4%).  Technicians  and  associate  professionals  (+1.3%)  and 
clerks (+1.2%) follow closely. 

Figure 4. Forecast employment impact of the EGD (difference between 

EGD skills forecast scenario and baseline in %) by broad  
(ISCO 1 digit) occupation, EU-27

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s
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a

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f
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2022

2026

2030

s
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i

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S

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i

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l

Source:  Cedefop skills forecast, 2020 baseline and EGD scenario estimates.

(22)  For information on the method used to derive occupational trends, see Chapter 2.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
32

The green employment and skills transformation

There will be clear ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ from the EGD. Some occupations 
(e.g. in coal mining) will face employment decline while others (e.g. emerging 
occupations in hydrogen production) will see growth (European Commission, 
DG  ENER,  2021).  Notwithstanding,  the  employment  benefits  of  the  EGD 
appear  to  be  diffused  across  almost  all  occupational  categories.  From  a 
policy perspective, this is an interesting finding. It shows that greening the EU 
economy will not rely solely on high-skilled workers and that implementing 
the  EGD  tends  to  ease  rather  than  exacerbate  job  polarisation  (Cedefop, 
2011; Cedefop, 2012).

Digging  deeper  into  employment  changes  in  the  decade  2020-30, 
forecasts by the baseline and EGD scenarios, and their differences, provide 
more insight into the employment dynamics of the green transition (Table 1). 
Implementing  the  EGD  leads  to  an  additional  1.5%  employment  increase 
for plant and machine operators and assemblers by 2030 (around 250 000 
extra jobs) and about 330 000 additional elementary jobs. These are likely to 
cover additional employment needs in new recycling factories, construction 
of  electric  vehicle  charging  stations  and  waste  management  facilities. 
Implementing the EGD will lead to declining employment for craft and related 
trades  workers  of  around  290  000  jobs  by  2030,  much  less  than  the  over 
700 000 jobs lost according to baseline projections. This means one of the 
impacts of the EGD is 400 000 medium-level jobs not being lost because 
of  increased  labour  market  needs  spearheaded  by  EGD  policies.  These 
additional jobs may concern assembling new technology (such as electric 
vehicle  engines)  or  its  implementation  (building  renovation  and  installing 
clean energy-based heating systems).

ChAPTER 4.
Trends in occupations

33

Table 1. Forecast employment change by broad (ISCO 1 digit)

occupation between 2020-30 in the baseline and the EGD skills 
forecast scenario

Scenario

Baseline

EGD scenario

Broad (ISCO 1 digit) 
occupation

Employment 
change
(in %)

Employment 
change
(in 000s)

Employment 
change
(in %)

Employment 
change
(in 000s)

Legislators, senior 
officials and managers

Professionals

Technicians and 
associate professionals

Clerks

Service workers and 
shop and market sales 
workers

Skilled agricultural and 
fishery workers

Craft and related trades 
workers

Plant and machine 
operators and 
assemblers

9.9

10.8

9.5

-2.2

3.8

1064

4094

3289

-428

1311

11.5

11.8

10.9

-1.1

4.4

1240

4492

3770

-204

1527

-21.5

-1664

-21.3

-1642

-2.9

0.4

-704

68

590

-1.2

2.0

4.6

-290

322

917

Elementary occupations

3.0

Source:  Cedefop skills forecast, 2020 baseline and EGD scenario estimates.

The  attenuating  effect  of  the  EGD  on  polarisation  is  also  visible  from 
employment trends by skills level (Figure 5). The differences between EGD 
scenario  and  baseline  projections  for  employment  by  skills  level  between 
2020 and 2030 follow a pattern similar to that observed for total employment 
(Figure  1).  Forecast  employment  increases  fast  initially  and  accelerates 
around 2026, when many green investments reach the operational stage and 
require  additional  personnel.  The  positive  employment  effects  of  the  EGD 
are diffused at all skill levels. Although higher-skilled workers’ creativity and 
innovation are essential for climate technology breakthroughs, employment 

 
34

The green employment and skills transformation

in skilled manual and elementary occupations are expected to grow faster 
than  high-skilled  occupations.  This  suggests  that  the  EGD  may  alleviate 
progressive job polarisation in European job markets.

Figure 5.  Forecast employment impact of the EGD (% difference 

between EGD skills forecast scenario and baseline) by skills 
level, EU-27 

e
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1.60

1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00

-0.20

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Highly-skilled non-manual occupations
Skilled non-manual occupations
Skilled manual occupations
Elementary occupations

Source:  Cedefop skills forecast, 2020 baseline and EGD scenario estimates.

4.2. 

 Occupational employment trends in detail 

Broad  trends  more  detailed  analysis  of  occupational  level  changes  points 
towards the importance of highly skilled non-manual occupations in driving 
(as  with  scientists)  and  supporting  (public  officials  and  managers)  EGD 
implementation (Figure 6). The EGD scenario forecasts significant additional 
employment increases (compared to the baseline) for science and engineering 
(associate)  professionals,  business  and  administration  professionals,  chief 
executives,  senior  officials  and  legislators,  administrative  and  commercial 
managers, and information and communications technology professionals. 

 
 
 
 
ChAPTER 4.
Trends in occupations

35

Figure 6.  Forecast employment impact of the EGD (difference between 

EGD skills forecast scenario and baseline in 000s and %) by 
detailed occupation, EU-27

3.1%    

3.0%

2.1%

7.4%
1.1%
2.4%

Building and related trades workers, excluding electricians
Science and engineering associate professionals
Drivers and mobile plant operators
Refuse workers and other elementary workers
Business and administration associate professionals
Science and engineering professionals
Sales workers
Business and administration professionals
Labourers in mining, construction, manufacturing and transport
Numerical and material recording clerks
General and keyboard clerks
Metal, machinery and related trades workers
      Electrical and electronic trades workers
Personal service workers
Production and specialised services managers
Customer services clerks
Administrative and commercial managers
Cleaners and helpers
Stationary plant and machine operators
 Information and communications technology professionals
Legal, social and cultural professionals
Health associate professionals
Legal, social, cultural and related associate professionals
Teaching professionals
Health professionals
Chief executives, senior officials and legislators
Hospitality, retail and other services managers
Protective services workers
Personal care workers
Assemblers
Market-oriented skilled agricultural workers
Information and communications technicians
Food processing, wood working, garment and other craft & related trades
Other clerical support workers
Food preparation assistants
Agricultural, forestry and fishery labourers
Handicraft and printing workers
Street and related sales and service workers
Market-oriented skilled forestry, fishery and hunting workers
Subsistence farmers, fishers, hunters and gatherers

0.7%
1.2%
1.5%
             1.1%
            1.2%
            1.0%
           2.1%
          0.6%
          1.6%
         1.4%
         2.1%
         0.7%
        1.0%
       1.5%
       0.8%
      0.7%
     0.9%
     0.4%
    0.6%
    1.7%
   1.1%
   0.8%
   0.4%
   1.1%
   0.3%
  1.2% 
  0.4%
 0.8%
 0.8%
 0.4%
0.4%
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.0%

NB:  The percentages indicate the difference in forecast employment growth or decline (in %) between EGD and 

baseline scenario.

Source:  Cedefop skills forecast, 2020 baseline and EGD scenario estimates.

0

100

200

300

 
36

The green employment and skills transformation

Comparing  forecast  change  in  employment  levels  in  the  baseline  with 
the  change  emerging  from  the  EGD  scenario  shows  that  EGD-driven 
employment  trends  are  likely  to  benefit  a  broad  range  of  medium-skill 
occupations.  In  relative  terms,  the  highest  impact  is  expected  for  refuse 
workers,  building  and  related  trades  workers,  electrical  and  electronic 
trades workers and drivers. A clear positive EGD employment impact is also 
expected for customer service clerks and assemblers. Employment trends 
in  health  and  food  processing  and  preparation  occupations  appear  to  be 
relatively unaffected by the green transition (23). 

Analysing  forecast  developments  of  occupational  employment  within 
sectors  helps  shed  more  light  on  the  complexity  of  the  green  transition  in 
terms of its socioeconomic impact. Comparing positive and negative EGD 
scenario sectoral employment trends (Table 2) suggests transitions will need 
to take place across several sectors (24). As a result of phasing out fossil fuels, 
up to 286 000 energy sector workers (at all skill levels) may need to transition 
to  a  job  in  a  sector  where  EGD  implementation  has  a  positive  impact  on 
labour  demand.  Such  transitions  are  not  straightforward:  they  will  require 
reskilling to familiarise workers with – possibly – new green technology and 
to help them acquire the knowledge they need to start working in a different 
sector. At the same time, employment in sectors such as water supply will 
expand across occupational levels. 

Trends within and across sectors will shape VET provision, for IVET and 
up- and re-skilling. Notable in this context is also the forecast demand for 
highly skilled workers in the computer programming sector, where more than 
86% of the forecast employment boost will be jobs for high-skilled workers. 
This can be interpreted as evidence of the intricate links between the digital 
and the green transition. The policy implication is that it is neither possible nor 
desirable to analyse megatrends and their employment and skills implications 
in isolation. Skills necessary to design, apply and implement technologies that 
are focused on or indirectly facilitate ‘greening’ should be viewed as symbiotic 
to  ‘green’  ones,  more  directly  linked  to  the  green  transition.  VET-wise, 

(23)  As the EGD scenario does not consider policies relevant to the Farm-to-fork strategy, results 
for agriculture and related occupations should be treated with caution. The same holds for 
employment trends in health occupations, which is strongly affected by other socioeconomic 
megatrends (e.g. changes in demographic composition of the workforce).

(24)  This finding is corroborated by other analyses, too. See, for example, European Commission 

(2021b).

ChAPTER 4.
Trends in occupations

37

this  calls  for  a  holistic  approach  to  adapting  programmes,  curricula  and 
teaching and learning. 

Table 2.  Forecast job creation and destruction in 2020-30 linked to 
EGD implementation in most heavily impacted sectors by 
occupation level (difference in employment levels between 
baseline and EGD skills forecast scenario)

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4.8

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244.9

305.2

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207.3

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-58.2

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486.6

142.4

65.3

Occupation

Highly skilled 
non-manual 
occupations

Skilled 
non-manual 
occupations

Skilled manual 
occupations

Elementary 
occupations

Total

NB:  A main assumption underlying the analysis is that the occupational composition of employment in sectors  

is not affected by EGD implementation (see also Chapter 2).

Source:  Cedefop skills forecast, 2020 baseline and EGD scenario estimates.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ChAPTER 5. 

Reflection and lessons for 
policy

5.1. 

 Key scenario messages

With  the  European  Green  Deal,  the  EU  has  bolstered  its  commitment  to 
becoming  a  global  champion  in  greening  its  economy  and  society.  The 
COVID-19  pandemic  and  the  significant  business  disruption  that  followed 
(25) did not stall EGD implementation but was perceived as an opportunity 
to  couple  economic  recovery  with  an  environmentally  sustainable  future. 
Cedefop’s  EGD  scenario  results  help  in  assessing  its  likely  employment 
effect in the EU by 2030 and can be used to enlighten policy-makers, social 
partners and individuals about where up- and re-skilling could focus to ease 
and accelerate the green transition.

Although  the  main  employment  effects  appear  to  be  concentrated 
in  sectors  directly  targeted  by  EGD  policies  (e.g.  extraction  industries, 
construction  and  waste  management)  the  EGD  is  also  expected  to 
increase  employment  in  several  service  sectors,  such  as  engineering  and 
administration. In most other sectors, a possible redirection of employment 
towards cleaner production rather than an employment increase or decrease 
is  forecast.  This  corroborates  other  research,  which  finds  that  the  green 
transition drives skills and training needs in all sectors.

The  green  transition  is  an  economic  and  societal  transformation  rather 
than  a  linear  change  process.  Reliably  mapping  its  terms  of  employment 
and  skills  impacts  is  enormously  complex,  not  least  because  its  evolution 
crucially depends on public investment effectiveness and policy stability and 
coherence. Caution is therefore advised when using and interpreting scenario 
results. The main contribution of the EGD scenario is a model-driven image 
of the future; policy-makers and other stakeholders should view the findings 
as such and resist the temptation to view forecast employment levels and 
trends  as  (near)  certainties.  The  scenario  results  may  be  viewed  as  rather 
optimistic as they show the green transition will have a positive bottom line 

(25)  See also Van Loo et al. (2021).

ChAPTER 5.
Reflection and lessons for policy

39

employment impact. In addition, as usual in a ceteris paribus scenario, other 
possible influences are not considered. For instance, if other trends (notably 
automation) accelerate in the years up to 2030, employment growth may not 
(fully)  materialise.  Notwithstanding  this,  the  scenario  has  significant  policy 
relevance.

5.2. 

 Easing the green transition via up- and 
reskilling

The  findings  in  this  report  underline  the  importance  of  a  sectoral  focus  in 
education, training and skills policies. They call for a comprehensive approach 
to developing training policies to tackle challenges and opportunities at both 
ends: sectors (and respective occupations) expected to drive greening and 
those facing gradual decline and possibly phase-out as a result of it.

To  understand  how  to  go  about  setting  broad  priorities  for  up-  and 
reskilling,  it  is  insightful  to  look  at  sectors  strongly  affected  by  the  trend 
towards greener and more sustainable economies. In mining, for example, 
the  energy  transition  calls  for  mobility-oriented  up-  and  re-skilling,  so  that 
workers can make the transition to greener sectors or occupations. Workers 
extracting  coal  can  acquire  new  skills  to  find  employment  in  renewable 
energy  technologies  (26).  As  such  jobs  require  employees  with  advanced 
STEM  skills,  policy  coordination  is  important.  This  helps  ensure  the  new 
or  adjusted  education  and  training  programmes  and  curricula  meet  skills 
requirements  and  workers’  needs.  Some  types  of  mining,  such  as  lithium 
extraction, which is crucial to produce batteries powering electric vehicles, 
will continue. For this part of the sector, the approach to training and up- and 
reskilling workers should aim at building on existing skills insofar possible, 
reconciling EGD policy ambitions with increased demand for raw materials, 
and greening operational processes.

The  strong  sectoral  component  in  the  EGD’s  impact  not  only  calls  for 
targeted training activities at that level but also underlines the need for better 
sectoral skills anticipation. Although data and qualitative analysis at EU or 
Member State level can shed light on megatrends, understanding how these 
will work out in practice is difficult without analysis at sectoral (and in some 

(26)  Alves Dias et al.(2018) show that jobs in wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) energy are the most 

suitable workplaces for former coal workers.

 
40

The green employment and skills transformation

cases  sub-sectoral)  level.  Complementing  such  work  with  occupational 
analysis has significant potential for evidence-based policy-making. Gaining 
solid  insight  into  greening  trends  means  going  beyond  mapping  shifts 
between sectors and occupations. Grasping what is happening within them 
– in different occupations in the same sector or in a single occupation across 
sectors  –  is  key  to  shaping  up-  and  reskilling  policies  and  practices.  The 
unique  combination  of  trends  and  their  implications  provides  an  image  of 
the context within which up- and re-skilling should take place and helps in 
setting its aims and objectives.

5.3. 

 Lessons for policy

The European Green Deal has a strong social component. It aims to ensure 
just transitions for workers and to smooth the economic and social impact for 
countries, regions and communities. As shown in our analysis of the EGD’s 
employment implications, this is important not only for equality reasons but 
also to make the green transition possible. Apart from targeted investment 
to alleviate shocks and develop skills, a comprehensive approach to skills 
matching should also be a policy priority. high-quality skills intelligence can 
help identify ‘skills ladders’ facilitating workers’ mobility to other sectors or 
alternative occupations within their sector. Career guidance plays a crucial 
role  in  making  such  transitions  happen.  Widely  available  and  accessible 
career  guidance  with  an  awareness-raising  component  could  also  help 
attract  people  to  promising  ‘green’  jobs  and  sectors.  This  can  contribute 
to  overcoming  negative  stereotypes  (e.g.  about  construction  or  waste 
management jobs) and gender imbalances in traditionally male-dominated 
occupations (such as engineering). Boosting awareness of, and access to, 
green and STEM skills has a double dividend: strengthening the social and 
economic position of vulnerable groups and stepping up their contribution 
to  achieving  the  EGD  targets.  In  this  context,  VET  is  a  central  enabler  of 
economic and social change.

The anticipated increase in skilled-manual and elementary occupations 
can  have  implications  for  other  policy  areas:  examples  include  migration 
policy  and  employment  and  social  policies  aimed  at  addressing  the 
precariousness of employment (e.g. sorters in recycling factories). Given the 
central role of technology in greening the economy, the forecast employment 

ChAPTER 5.
Reflection and lessons for policy

41

boost for scientists and engineers (27) is less surprising. Particularly in sectors 
such as energy, they will drive ‘green-tech’ breakthroughs and shape newly 
emerging high-skilled occupations (e.g. hydrogen engineers). Some of these 
R&D occupations represent a relatively small, but nonetheless indispensable 
share  of  employment  because  greening  is  not  possible  without  their 
contribution  to  developing  technologies  and  making  them  economically 
viable. Investing in engineering and scientific skills to ensure their availability 
should be a top policy priority.  

The geographic variation in the impact of the EGD is crucially important 
for  policy  design  and  uptake  at  national  and  regional  levels.  Focusing  on 
the  green  transition  in  the  EU,  Cedefop’s  EGD  scenario  did  not  examine 
the  impact  of  geographic  specificities  on  employment  trends.  Naturally, 
training  and  skilling  policies  and  measures  need  to  fit  reality  at  Member 
State or regional level. Regions with sizable employment in coal mining (28) 
or traditional (internal combustion engine power) vehicle manufacturing will 
be  disproportionately  impacted.  The  resulting  labour  market  imbalances 
can be addressed by movements of people within and between countries, 
but  this  will  not  happen  without  sound  skills  intelligence  and  adequate
 support (29). In preparing for the green transition, active labour market policies 
and  social  protection  measures  need  to  be  designed  and  implemented  in 
ways  that  alleviate  negative  impacts,  particularly  for  the  most  vulnerable 
regions and their populations. 

Many  education  and  skill  policies  currently  in  force  might  require 
adaptation or reform to accommodate up- and reskilling needs and mobility. 
Given  that  the  twin  (green  and  digital)  transitions  are  mutually  reinforcing 
transformations, many green jobs will require better digital skills compared 
to  jobs  in  ‘brown’  sectors,  irrespective  of  skill  level.  The  potential  role  of 
digital  skills  as  a  green  transition  enabler  is  apparent,  for  example,  from 
current  physical  production  lines,  which  rely  on  digital  software  and  tools 
and remote digital human interaction. AI technology is increasingly deployed 
to increase resource efficiency and monitor production processes. The more 

(27)  See Vona et al. (2015).
(28)  One Polish region may lose up to 41 000 jobs by 2030, and a further three (in Bulgaria, Czechia 
and Romania) are likely to lose an estimated 10 000 jobs each. See Alves Dias et al. (2018).
(29)  At EU level, the talent partnerships launched in the context of the New pact on migration and 
asylum aims to address skills shortages in the European Union and to strengthen mutually 
beneficial partnerships on migration with third countries. See the European Commission Talent 
partnerships web page.

 
42

The green employment and skills transformation

harmonised  waste  collection  and  management  systems  that  will  emerge 
soon will most certainly be digitally monitored, not only centrally, but also ‘on 
the spot’ by maintenance workers using a portable digital device to detect 
and  report  issues.  Similar  trends  in  other  sectors  make  improving  digital 
skills even in low-skilled jobs a necessity (30).

5.4. 

 Final word

The forecast scenario presented in this report shows that the implementation 
of EGD has the potential to generate positive labour market impacts. These 
will not materialise without stable policy commitment and active stakeholder 
involvement and cooperation. Governments, employers, regional and local 
authorities, VET and other types of providers, research institutions and other 
actors  are  jointly  responsible  for  managing  skills  ecosystems  and  need  to 
share design and policy implementation to make the green transition smooth 
and inclusive and to keep it on track. Encouraging and facilitating up- and 
reskilling across the board to help people keep up with change should be 
seen  as  the  core  of  a  viable  green  and  just  transition.  Providing  guidance 
and support to groups of workers who – in order to stay economically active 
– will need to change occupation, sector or geographic location or acquire 
completely new skill sets is a further, and likely even more challenging, task. 
In this context, cooperation, joint ambition and the drive to achieve the 
European Green Deal targets are one essential part of the equation. Another 
part is reliable and timely information and insight into structural trends and 
their impact on sectors, occupations and skills: this is skills intelligence. At 
EU level, Cedefop is expanding skills intelligence work focused on the green 
transition.  Skills  foresight  outcomes  in  sectors  that  are  vital  to  managing 
the  green  transition  and  new  work  that  exploits  information  on  green  jobs 
and  skills  in  online  job  advertisements  (Cedefop-Eurostat  OVATE  project) 
will  provide  policy-relevant  information  complementing  and  enriching  the 
findings presented in this report.

(30)  See discussions about skills requirements for steel sector in EASME (2020).

References

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Alves Dias, P. et al. (2018). EU coal regions: opportunities and challenges ahead. 
Luxembourg:  Publications  Office.  European  Commission  –  JRC112593. 
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https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/tools/skills-forecast

European Commission – A European Green Deal 
     https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green
      -deal_en
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https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/policies/migration-and-asylum/
legal-migration-and-integration/talent-partnerships_en 

European Pillar of Social Rights  

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ple/jobs-growth-and-investment/european-pillar-social-rights_en

European Skills Agenda for sustainable competitiveness, social fairness and 
resilience  https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1223&langId=en

The Just Transition Mechanism   

https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-
an-green-deal/finance-and-green-deal/just-transition-mechanism_en

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ANNEX 1.

Forecast detailed trends in 
sectors and occupations

Table A.1  Forecast employment change (% and absolute change  

between 2020 and 2030) by detailed sector, EGD skills 
forecast scenario vs baseline, EU-27

Scenario

Baseline

EGD scenario

Sector (NACE 2 digit)

Employment 
change
(in %)

Employment 
change
(in 000s)

Employment 
change
(in %)

Employment 
change
(in 000s)

Agriculture, etc.

Mining and quarrying

Food, Drink & Tobacco

Textiles, Clothing & 
Leather

Wood, paper, print, 
publishing

Coke & refined 
petroleum products

Other chemicals

Pharmaceuticals

Rubber/non-metallic 
mineral products

Basic metals & metal 
products

Optical & electronic 
equipment

Electrical equipment 

Other machinery & 
equipment

Motor Vehicles

Other Transport 
Equipment

-26.6

-15.5

-3.9

-21.6

-1.9

-3.1

-7.3

0.5

-1.9

-5.0

7.1

4.1

0.6

3.9

0.2

-2487

-82

-175

-455

-43

-46

-79

2

-53

-222

77

61

17

100

1

-26.5

-26.5

-3.4

-21.5

-1.1

-14.7

-6.2

0.7

-2.5

-2.8

10.3

6.3

1.3

4.9

0.4

-2473

-141

-153

-454

-24

-213

-67

3

-70

-125

111

93

37

124

2

 ANNEX 1.
Forecast detailed trends in sectors and occupations

49

Scenario

Baseline

EGD scenario

Sector (NACE 2 digit)

Employment 
change
(in %)

Employment 
change
(in 000s)

Employment 
change
(in %)

Employment 
change
(in 000s)

Manufacturing nes

Electricity

Gas, steam & air 
conditioning

Water supply

Construction

Wholesale and retail 
trade

Land transport

Water Transport

Air Transport

Warehousing and 
postal services

Accommodation & 
Catering

Media

Telecommunications

Computer 
programming, info 
serv

Financial & insurance 
activ

Real estate activities

Legal, account & 
consulting

Architectural & 
engineering

Research & 
Development

Market research & 
other prof

Admin. and support 
services

Public administration 
& defence

-2.1

6.6

7.1

-1.3

5.2

5.6

8.0

-7.4

-0.7

2.5

11.2

-4.7

3.6

15.1

1.2

12.4

7.4

5.0

15.6

9.1

7.2

4.0

-43

55

21

-20

671

1706

470

-18

-2

99

1149

-61

31

536

61

269

453

142

187

228

939

543

-1.9

23.7

-13.8

61.9

9.0

6.2

8.4

-6.9

-0.1

2.9

12.0

-4.3

4.0

17.0

1.5

12.7

8.7

7.7

15.8

10.8

8.4

4.3

-37

197

-40

941

1157

1899

495

-16

0

116

1229

-56

33

602

76

277

531

216

189

269

1092

585

50

The green employment and skills transformation

Scenario

Baseline

EGD scenario

Sector (NACE 2 digit)

Employment 
change
(in %)

Employment 
change
(in 000s)

Employment 
change
(in %)

Employment 
change
(in 000s)

Education

Health

Arts and entertainment

Other service activities

Total employment

6.5

10.1

4.9

3.6

3.7

868

2163

93

394

7547

6.8

10.5

5.0

3.6

4.9

911

2257

95

394

10063

Source:  Cedefop skills forecast, 2020 baseline and EGD scenario estimates.

 ANNEX 1.
Forecast detailed trends in sectors and occupations

51

Table A.2   Forecast employment change (% and absolute change
between 2020 and 2030) by detailed occupation, EGD 
skills forecast scenario vs baseline, EU-27

Scenario

Baseline

EGD scenario

Occupation (ISCO 2 
digit)

Employment 
change
(in %)

Employment 
change
(in 000s)

Employment 
change
(in %)

Employment 
change
(in 000s)

Chief executives, senior 
officials and legislators

Administrative and 
commercial managers

Production and 
specialised services 
managers

Hospitality, retail and 
other services managers

Science and engineering 
professionals

Health professionals

Teaching professionals

Business and 
administration 
professionals

Information and 
communications 
technology professionals

Legal, social and cultural 
professionals

Science and engineering 
associate professionals

Health associate 
professionals

Business and 
administration associate 
professionals

Legal, social, cultural 
and related associate 
professionals

9.2

18

6.1

6.9

14.8

9.8

2.9

14.1

15.5

13.2

3

4.5

8.8

32

152

507

233

172

922

528

281

1073

495

795

232

283

1277

10.9

20.1

7.7

8

17.2

10.3

3.3

15.3

17

13.9

6

5.2

9.8

180

565

296

198

1070

557

316

1165

543

841

461

325

1429

1396

32.8

1435

52

The green employment and skills transformation

Scenario

Baseline

EGD scenario

Occupation (ISCO 2 
digit)

Employment 
change
(in %)

Employment 
change
(in 000s)

Employment 
change
(in %)

Employment 
change
(in 000s)

Information and 
communications 
technicians

General and keyboard 
clerks

Customer services clerks

Numerical and material 
recording clerks

Other clerical support 
workers

Personal service workers

Sales workers

Personal care workers

Protective services 
workers

Market-oriented skilled 
agricultural workers

Market-oriented skilled 
forestry, fishery and 
hunting workers

Subsistence farmers, 
fishers, hunters and 
gatherers

Building and related 
trades workers, excluding 
electricians

Metal, machinery and 
related trades workers

Handicraft and printing 
workers

Electrical and electronic 
trades workers

Food processing, wood 
working, garment and 
other craft and related 
trades

5.9

-8.5

20.1

-7.9

-13.8

4.7

3.1

6.6

-1.1

-21.7

-11

101

-521

893

-570

-231

490

465

393

-37

-1518

-35

7.1

-7.3

21.4

-6.8

-13

5.3

3.8

7

-0.3

-21.4

-11.1

121

-449

952

-491

-216

553

568

417

-11

-1497

-35

-26.2

-110

-26.3

-110

6.3

-9.1

-6.1

-0.9

510

-685

-68

-30

9.4

-8.1

-5.6

1.2

764

-613

-63

37

-10.5

-432

-10.1

-415

 ANNEX 1.
Forecast detailed trends in sectors and occupations

53

Scenario

Baseline

EGD scenario

Occupation (ISCO 2 
digit)

Employment 
change
(in %)

Employment 
change
(in 000s)

Employment 
change
(in %)

Employment 
change
(in 000s)

Stationary plant and 
machine operators

Assemblers

Drivers and mobile plant 
operators

Cleaners and helpers

Agricultural, forestry and 
fishery labourers

Labourers in mining, 
construction, 
manufacturing and 
transport

Food preparation 
assistants

Street and related sales 
and service workers

Refuse workers and other 
elementary workers

-5.3

13.6

0.9

2.4

-6.1

6.9

4.6

-15.3

2.9

-272

261

80

195

-110

393

75

-28

65

-4.3

14.7

3

3.1

-5.7

8.4

5.4

-15.3

10.3

-221

283

261

252

-103

478

87

-27

230

Source:  Cedefop skills forecast, 2020 baseline and EGD scenario estimates.

ANNEX 2.

Assumptions underlying the 
EGD scenario in key policy 
areas

Power generation

(a) Coal phase out
(b) Nuclear capacity: same as in the baseline
(c) No assumptions on carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) but some 
response is expected as response to an increase in carbon price. There 
are no policies in the model to encourage CCS, but a higher ETS price 
makes  the  technology  look  less  expensive,  so  it  is  possible  for  CCS 
capacity to start being built.
(d) Policies encouraging renewables

(i)  Subsidy  support 

for  certain 

(e.g.  RES)  electricity  generating 

technologies

(ii)  Feed-in-tariffs (applied to current contracts only)
(iii) Feed-in-premiums

Renewable in final use

(a) household heating

(i)  subsidies  for  different  types  of  heat  pumps  and  solar  thermal 
technologies,  starting  at  half  the  capital  cost  in  the  first  year  of  the 
policy, before being reduced to zero by 2030.

(ii)  small fuel tax on coal, oil and gas heating technologies, starting at just 
under 0.02% of the initial fuel cost and increasing to about 2.6% in 
2030.

(iii) at Member State level: setting a proportion of household heating that 

comes from district heating.

(b) Steel:  At  Member  State  level,  setting  a  proportion  of  steel-making 

technologies using electricity (see fuel switching below)

ANNEX 2.
Assumptions underlying the EGD scenario in key policy areas

55

(c) Fuel  switching:  replacing  coal  with  electricity,  gas  or  bioenergy  in  the 
production  process  of  the  following  sectors:  other  chemicals;  rubber 
and plastic products and other non-metallic mineral products; and basic 
metals metal products

Energy efficiency

(a) Reduction in energy demand
(b) Policies  encouraging  the  change  of  technology  toward  less  carbon-

intensive fuels (see the list above)

(c) Energy efficiency investment is assumed to be privately funded, with no 
investment crowd-out in other sectors. The government covers the cost 
of the energy efficiency investment using the revenues from the ETS, and, 
where more money is required, by raising standard VAT

Transport

(a) Subsidies to support electric vehicles
(b) Various tax options for inefficient vehicles (such as fuel taxes, road taxes 

or registration taxes)

(c) No ban on diesel

Circular economy

(a) Increased recycling rates, particularly for sectors with high resource use 
such  as  electronics,  plastics,  textiles,  construction  and  buildings,  and 
food.

(b) End-of-life  vehicles:  it  is  assumed  that  dealerships  take  on  the  used 

vehicles and pass them on to recycling centres

(c) End-of-life batteries: it is assumed that the producers take on the used 

batteries and pass them on to recycling centres

For more information, please contact Cedefop.

ENEurope 123, Thessaloniki (Pylea), GREECEPostal address: Cedefop service post, 570 01 Thermi, GREECETel. +30 2310490111, Fax +30 2310490020, Email: info@cedefop.europa.euvisit our portal www.cedefop.europa.eu4206 EN – TI-01-21-539-EN-N – doi:10.2801/112540 This report provides insight into likely employment and skills implications of the European Green Deal (EGD) based on a Cedefop skills forecast scenario. Implementing the EGD has a positive net employment impact. Employment effects appear to be concentrated in sectors directly target-ed, such as extraction industries, construction and waste management. Employment increases are forecast in service sectors such as engineering and administration. In most other sectors, a possible redirection of employment towards cleaner production rather than an employment change is forecast. Policy needs to focus on extensive accelerating of up- and reskilling and providing guidance and support to workers who will need to change occupa-tion, sector or geographic location. As well as targeted investment, developing transition-oriented skills matching approaches should also be a policy priority. THE GREEN EMPLOYMENTAND SKILLS TRANSFORMATIONInsights from a European Green Dealskills forecast scenarioENInsights from a European Green Dealskills forecast scenarioTHE GREEN EMPLOYMENTAND SKILLS TRANSFORMATION