JRC MARS Bulletin : crop monitoring in Europe. Vol. 29 No 8, August 2021.
Date: 2021-08-23
Institutions: Joint Research Centre
Subjects: agricultural situation, atmospheric conditions, crop production, crop yield, meteorology, serial publication

Issued: 23 August 2021 

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 8 

JRC MARS Bulletin 
Crop monitoring in Europe 
August 2021 

EU-level yield outlook remains above average 
Summer crops negatively impacted in southern Europe but improved in the west 

Weather conditions in the EU, and the associated impacts 
on  yield  expectations  have  been  quite  contrasting. 
However, changes to crop yield forecasts at the EU level, 
are very limited. 

In  most  parts  of  western  and  north-central  Europe, 
predominantly  mild  temperatures  and  adequate  water 
supply led to an improved yield outlook for summer crops. 
In  some  of  these  regions,  the  harvest  of  winter  crops 
continued to be hampered due to frequent rains, leading 
to a slight reduction in the yield forecast for winter cereals. 
In  contrast,  hotter-than-usual  conditions  prevailed  in 
southern,  eastern  and  northern  European  regions.  Italy, 
Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, western Romania, Bulgaria and 
Greece,  were affected  by  a severe  heatwave  starting  at 
the  end  of  July,  with  negative  impacts  on  non-irrigated 
summer  crops,  particularly  in  the  areas  affected  by 
drought.  In  Sweden,  the  Baltic  countries  and  Finland,  a 
hotter-than-usual July negatively affected the grain filling 
of spring and winter cereals. 
In  southern  European  Russia,  the  heatwave  in  August 
came too late to damage winter crops, but winter cereals 
in  more  central  regions  were  negatively  affected  during 
the later stages of grain filling. 

Contents: 

1. 
2. 
3. 
4. 
5. 
6. 

Agrometeorological overview 
Remote sensing – observed canopy conditions 
Pastures in Europe – regional monitoring 
Country headlines 
Crop yield forecasts 
Atlas 

 
 
 
 
 
 
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 8 – 23 August 2021 

1.  Agrometeorological overview 

1.1.  Areas of concern 

usual weather recorded in western Poland and Belarus, 
and  intense  rainfall  in  the  alpine  regions  and  along  the 
northern and eastern Black Sea coasts. 
Sweden, the Baltic countries and Finland experienced 
hotter-than-usual weather in July, with a peak between 10 
and 15 July when maximum temperatures moved above 
30 °C for 2 to 5 days. These conditions, combined with a 
soil  moisture  deficit,  occurred  during  the  grain  filling  of 
spring and winter cereals, reducing yield expectations.  
In Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, western Romania, 
Bulgaria and Greece, a heatwave occurred at the end of 
July  and  the  beginning  of  August,  with  maximum 
temperatures even above 40 °C in southernmost regions. 
For most of these regions, this is the second heatwave of 
the season, after the one in early July reported in the July 
issue  of  our  Bulletin.  In  central  Italy,  eastern  Croatia, 
southern Hungary, western Romania and Bulgaria, the 
dry  and  hot  weather  led  to  drought  conditions,  with 
associated  negative  impacts  on  non-irrigated  summer 
crops. 
In  southern  European  Russia,  the  heatwave  of  August 
came too late to damage winter crops, but in more central 
regions winter cereals were negatively affected during the 
later stages of grain filling. 

Recent  weather  conditions  in  Europe  have  been  full  of 
contrast  and  several  remarkable  weather  events  have 
occurred since the end of the review period covered in the 
July issue of the Bulletin (20 July). Reported events before 
that date are not repeated here. 
Southern,  eastern  and  northern  European 
regions 
experienced hot conditions that led to regional droughts. 
Rainfall  cumulated  since  mid-July,  has  been  around 
average in most regions, apart from markedly drier-than-

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1.2.  Meteorological review (1 July until 15 August 2021) 

Slightly  warmer-than-usual conditions were recorded 
in  most  of  Europe,  with  daily  mean  temperature 
anomalies (with respect to the LTA) mainly from +0.5 °C 
to +2 °C.  
Warmer-than-usual conditions were observed in large 
regions  of  Italy,  south-eastern  and  eastern  Europe,  and 
European  Russia.  Daily  mean  temperature  anomalies  in 
these regions were mainly from +2 °C to +4 °C.   
Severe  heatwaves  affected  large  regions  of  southern 
and  eastern  Europe.  Three  to  four  heatwaves  were 
observed  in  large  areas  of  the  Mediterranean  region,  in 
south-eastern Europe, and in the Black Sea region, where 
more  than  10  very  hot  days  (with  daily  maximum 
temperature above 35 °C) were recorded. On 11 August, 
the European record for daily maximum temperature was 
broken in the municipality of Siracusa (Sicily, Italy), where 
a temperature of 48.8 °C was recorded (to be confirmed 
by the World Meteorological Organization).   
Slightly  colder-than-usual  conditions,  with  daily 
mean temperature anomalies from -2 °C to -0.5 °C, were 

mainly  recorded  in  large  areas  of  the  Iberian  Peninsula, 
France, Germany and the Benelux countries.  
Wetter-than-usual conditions were mainly observed in 
a  large  region  across  France  and  western  Germany 
extending towards northern Italy, in large areas of Poland, 
the  United  Kingdom,  central  Turkey  and  the  Black  Sea 
region. Anomalies of total precipitation mainly from +50% 
to +150% (locally higher) were recorded. In the Black Sea 
region and Turkey, anomalies were higher than +150%.   
Drier-than-usual  conditions  were  mainly  observed  in 
the Iberian Peninsula, Italy, south-eastern Europe, western 
Turkey  and  European  Russia,  where  anomalies  of  total 
cumulative  precipitation  from  100%  to  -50%  were 
recorded. 
Several large hail events were observed in northern Italy, 
in  both  July  and  August.  In  mid-July,  severe  floods 
affected  river  basins  in  western  Germany,  Belgium,  the 
Netherlands and Switzerland. 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 8 – 23 August 2021 

1.3.  Weather forecast (20-26 August) 

Weather  conditions  will  be  mainly  determined  by  a  large-scale  cyclonic  disturbance  that  will  move  from  the  North 
Atlantic to eastern Europe, associated with a slowly evolving trough centred over the Scandinavian Peninsula. This large-
scale atmospheric pattern will favour rainfall and cooler temperatures in central, eastern and northern Europe. 

Warmer-than-usual conditions are expected in Spain, 
large  areas  of  Ireland,  Scotland,  Turkey  and  European 
Russia. Daily mean temperature anomalies (with respect 
to  the  LTA)  mostly  from  +2 °C  to  +4 °C  are  forecast  in 
these regions. In European Russia, higher anomalies from 
+4 °C to +8 °C (and even higher) are expected. 
Slightly colder-than-usual conditions are forecast in 
a  large  area  extending  from  the  Benelux  countries  and 
eastern  France  to  the  northern  part  of  European  Russia 
and also covering the Scandinavian Peninsula. Daily mean 
temperature anomalies from -2 °C to -0.5 °C are expected. 
Colder-than-usual  conditions,  with  daily  mean 
temperature anomalies from -4 °C to -2 °C, are forecast 

in  the  Baltic  Sea  region  and  in  large  areas  of  the 
Scandinavian Peninsula.  
Wet conditions are forecast in most of central, eastern 
and  northern  Europe.  Total  cumulative  precipitation  will 
mainly range from 10 mm to 40 mm.  
Dry  conditions  are  expected  in  large  regions  of  the 
Iberian  Peninsula,  France,  southern  Italy,  south-eastern 
Europe, Turkey, southern Norway and Sweden.    
Long-range weather forecast for September, October 
and November points to likely to occur warmer-than-usual 
conditions in the Mediterranean region and some areas of 
eastern Europe. 

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2.  Remote sensing – observed canopy conditions 

Difficult summer in central-eastern European regions 

The map displays the differences between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) cumulated from 1 July to 
10 August 2021 and the medium-term average (MTA, 2011-2020) for the same period. Positive anomalies (in green) 
reflect  above-average  canopy  density  or  early  crop  development,  while  negative  anomalies  (in  red)  reflect  below-
average biomass accumulation or late crop development.  

The  map  above  predominately  displays  summer  crop 
conditions  in  southern,  central  and  eastern  Europe,  as 
winter  crops  are  in  senescence  or  already  harvested.  In 
northern  Europe,  winter  and  spring  crop  conditions  still 
stand  out,  as  summer  crops  are  not  cultivated.  Positive 
anomalies  prevail  in  western  and  northern  Black  Sea 
regions, where vegetative growth was favoured by warm 
and wet conditions. Average to fair biomass accumulation 
is  present  in  most  of  the  southern,  central  and  western 
countries,  with  the  exception  of  Hungary  and  central 
Italy, where the hot and dry weather was unfavourable 
for the biomass accumulation of summer crops, especially 
where not irrigated.  
In northern Italy, conditions of summer crops are mixed, 
with delayed stages in eastern regions (e.g. Veneto) and 

favourable  development  in  western  regions.  In  France, 
winter crops have been harvested, while summer crops are 
developing  favourably  thanks  to  average  temperatures 
and  wet  conditions  since  the  end  of  June  (e.g.  Midi-
Pyrénées).  In  the  Benelux  countries  and  western 
Germany,  the  biomass  accumulation  of  summer  crops 
moved  to  above-average  values,  despite  the  over-wet 
conditions 
in  July  and  the  slightly  below-average 
temperatures  during  the  review  period.  In  southern 
Germany  (e.g.  Oberpfalz),  seasonal  temperatures  and 
abundant  precipitation  in  July  favoured  the  biomass 
accumulation  of  summer  crops.  In  western  and  central 
Poland,  high  July  temperatures,  on  top  of  a  dry  June, 
shortened  grain  filling  for  winter  crops  (e.g.  Kujawsko-
Pomorskie),  thus  reducing  yield  expectations.  In  eastern 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 8 – 23 August 2021 

Poland  the weather  was  more  favourable,  especially  for 
summer crops whose biomass accumulation is now above 
the average. In the Baltics, winter crops reached maturity 
towards the end of July and harvest is ongoing. In Finland, 
warmer-than-usual  weather  since  the  beginning  of  July 
has caused early flowering for spring cereals (e.g. Länsi-
Suomi).  In  central  Slovakia,  the  Czech  Republic  and 
Austria,  over-wet  conditions  and  average  temperatures 
later 
have  prevailed  since  mid-July,  favouring  the 
development stages of winter crops and the development 
of summer crops. Conversely in Hungary, the conditions 
in June and July led to an unfavourable end to the winter 
crops  season  and  hampered  biomass  accumulation  of 
summer  crops,  as  depicted  by  the  low  NDVI  signal  (e.g. 
Del-Dunaltul).  Similarly,  in  western  Romania,  summer 
crops are suffering from a low soil moisture level, due to 

increase 

the  above-average  temperatures.  In  central  and  eastern 
Romania  and  Bulgaria  (e.g.  Severen  Tsentralen)  an 
optimal  season  continues,  despite  an 
in 
temperatures recorded since the end of June, which may 
have had a negative impact on maize flower fertility. In 
Ukraine,  summer  crops  are  developing  with  normal 
biomass  accumulation,  thanks  to  only  slightly  above-
average  temperatures  and  well  distributed  precipitation. 
In  the  United  Kingdom,  winter  crops  have  reached 
maturity and harvesting activities are ongoing in southern 
regions and soon to start in Scotland, with a favourable 
outlook  (e.g.  Eastern  Scotland).  In  Russia,  the  negative 
effect of the hot temperatures of July was mitigated by 
well distributed precipitation that allowed for grain filling 
under favourable conditions. 

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3.  Pastures in Europe – regional monitoring 

Dry in the southern regions; favourable conditions elsewhere 

Southern European regions (Italy, Hungary, western Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, and the most southern regions of 
Spain and Portugal) were impacted by one or more severe heatwaves. Northern regions (Denmark, Sweden, Finland 
and the Baltic countries) experienced hot weather, wich negatively affected pasture productivity where combined with 
a soil water deficit. Other countries experienced predominantly favourable conditions for pasture productivity. 

The map above presents the pasture productivity index (PPI) (1) for the period from 1 July to 15 August. Positive PPI 
values indicate above-average biomass accumulation during this period (shades of green), whereas negative PPI values 
indicate below-average seasonal biomass accumulation (shades of red). 

The  dry  and  hot  conditions  in  Greece  during  the  review 
period  (particularly  since  29  July)  have  constrained 
pasture  productivity  almost  throughout  Greece,  with  the 
exception  of  East  Macedonia  and  Thrace,  where  well-
distributed  rainfall  episodes  provided  better  biomass 
conditions  for  pasture  growth.  In  the  first  10  days  of 

August,  wildfires  burned  about  93 000  ha  in  Central 
Greece, including almost 8 000 ha of grassland2. Also in 
southern  Italy  and  its  islands,  and  the  most  southern 
parts  of  Spain  and  Portugal,  exceptionally  hot 
temperatures  occurred  over  pasture  areas.  In  Hungary, 
and western regions of Romania and Bulgaria, pasture 

(1) PPI, the relative index of pasture productivity, is an indicator of biomass formation based on the integration of the 
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of pasture areas (at NUTS level 3) over a period of interest. The index 
shows the relative position of the current season within the historical series from 2010 to 2020, here referred to as the 
medium-term average (MTA). 
2 https://www.cnn.gr/ellada/story/277350/pyrkagies-pano-apo-930-000-stremmata-i-kameni-ektasi-stin-ellada-fetos 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 8 – 23 August 2021 

productivity was negatively impacted by hot temperatures 
and a persistent rain deficit, whereas similar conditions in 
northern  and  central  Italy,  reduced  pasture  biomass 
accumulation  along  the  northern  Apennine  ridge  (e.g. 
Emilia-Romagna and Marche). 
In  Denmark,  Sweden,  Finland,  and 
the  Baltic 
countries,  high  temperatures  were  registered,  which, 
where  combined  with  a  soil  water  deficit,  negatively 
affected pasture productivity. 
In France, the Benelux countries, Ireland and Germany, 
conditions  have  been  favourable  for  pastures:  mild 
temperatures and sufficient/abundant rainfall contributed 
to  high  biomass  formation.  Compared  to  the  past  few 

years,  this  summer  is  not  dry,  and  rainfall  has  ensured 
high  pasture  productivity.  Frequent  rainfall  in  north-
western  France  and  large  parts  of  the  other  regions 
mentioned had a drawback, in that it made it difficult for 
farmers  to  cut  and  harvest  the  grass  under  optimal 
conditions for extensive periods.  
The  conditions  in  Poland  have  been  favourable  for 
pastures in most of the country, except for north-western 
regions  where  there  is  a  rain  deficit.  The  statistical 
estimates  for  the  first  cut,  conducted  in  May,  indicated 
good results (9% above last year’s). Similarly, in Austria, 
Czechia,  Slovakia,  and  most  parts  of  Slovenia, 
conditions were favourable. 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 8 – 23 August 2021 

4.  Country headlines 

4.1.  European Union 

France 
Favourable outlook for summer crops 

Temperatures  have  been  milder  than  average  for  the 
review  period,  oscillating  between  two  relatively  short 
heatwaves around 22 July and 12 August. Predominantly 
stormy  and  rainy  weather  prevailed,  with  cumulative 
radiation  slightly  below  the  LTA.  The  rainy  weather  was 
not  favourable  for  the  harvest  of  winter  cereals, 
hampering farmers’ work and degrading grain quality. Our 
yield  forecasts  remain  unchanged  for  winter  cereals. 
the  above-average 
Summer  crops  benefited  from 
cumulative rainfall and mild temperatures, meaning crops 
were not exposed to heat stress. Thus, our yield forecasts 
for all summer crops were revised upward, and are now 
firmly above the 5-year average. Conditions are promising 
for a very good yield of grain maize and green maize. The 
yield forecasts for sugar beet and potatoes have also been 

Germany 
Difficult harvesting conditions continue 

Unstable  weather  with  frequent  showers  characterised 
the  review  period  for  most  of  Germany.  While  ample 
amounts  of  precipitation  were  recorded  during  the  first 
half of July, precipitation intensity decreased considerably 
for  the  remaining  part  of  the  review  period.  Harvesting 
operations in western and southern Germany are delayed, 
and yield and quality losses are probable, since so far only 
two  somewhat  larger  windows  with  fair  harvesting 
conditions have been recorded.  
Towards the north-east, the weather was drier and hotter 
compared to the rest of the country, with a series of hot 
days  centred  over  Brandenburg,  Sachsen-Anhalt  and 
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.  Here,  the  harvest  started 
earlier  than  usual  as  the  grain-filling  period  was 
accelerated  due  to  the  less  favourable  June  conditions. 
Forecasts for winter and spring cereals remain unaltered, 
except for soft wheat which was lowered to account for 
the  difficult  conditions  during  the  last  stages  of  grain 

revised  upward  compared  with  last  month,  considering 
weather  conditions  have  been  favourable  and  this  has 
somewhat compensated for the bad start to the season. 

filling  and  ripening.  Development  of  summer  crops  has 
caught  up  and  biomass  accumulation  is  advancing  well. 
The  good  yield  outlook  for  maize  is  confirmed  and  the 
sugar beet forecast is revised upwards, as favourable soil 
moisture  conditions  should  guarantee  biomass  gains  in 
the coming weeks. 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 8 – 23 August 2021 

Poland 
August rain delays harvest of winter crops 

The outlook for grain maize, sugar beet and spring barley 
has  improved  compared  to  the  last  Bulletin,  while  yield 
expectations for winter wheat and potatoes remain close 
to the 5-year average. The yield forecast for rapeseed has 
been  revised  upward,  following 
initial  post-harvest 
reports. 

in 

prevailed 

Warmer-than-usual 
July 
conditions 
(temperature anomalies 1-3 °C above the LTA), while the 
beginning  of  August  was  colder  than  usual.  During  the 
review period, cumulative rainfall was significantly above 
the average in the eastern half, and below the average in 
the  north-west  (Zachodnio-Pomorskie,  Pomorskie  and 
Wielkopolskie),  where  prolonged  soil  moisture  deficits 
were observed. After a dry end to July, wetter-than-usual 
conditions prevailed during the first dekad of August.  
Harvest  operations  for  winter  crops  were  hampered  by 
persistent  rains  during  the  first  dekad  of  August. 
Additionally,  overly  wet  conditions  exerted  negative 
impacts on grain quality. Summer crops were favoured by 
temperatures  and  adequate  soil  moisture 
warm 
conditions 
(except  for  north-western  regions),  and 
biomass accumulation is now mostly around or above the 
average.  Nonetheless,  the  warm  and  wet  weather  has 
increased the risks of spread and development of fungal 
diseases.  

Ireland 
Harvest progress delayed by rainy weather in August 

Close-to-average  temperatures  prevailed,  except  in  the 
second and third dekad of July, which were characterised 
by higher-than-usual values. Considering the period as a 
whole, rainfall was above average across the country, with 
heavy rains occurring during the first 2 weeks of August. 
Winter barley harvest is mainly completed. Winter wheat 
and spring barley harvest is under way, but wet weather 
delayed  progress  in  August,  particularly  in  the  northern 
areas.  First  field  reports  indicate  good  cereal  yields. 
However, dry weather is needed to ensure good quality. 
The yield forecasts in the July Bulletin remain practically 
unchanged. 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 8 – 23 August 2021 

unchanged.  Forecast  yields  for  grain  maize  and  green 
maize are at the 5-year average for Spain, and above the 
5-year  average  for  Portugal.  For  sunflowers,  we  are 
forecasting at the 5-year average. For potatoes, our yield 
forecast  remains  slightly  below  the  5-year  average  for 
Spain, but above the average for Portugal. 

Spain and Portugal 
Dry conditions prevail 

A heatwave is at its peak at the end of the review period; 
due to the risk of mechanically ignited fire, many regions 
are  forbidding  field  access  to  machinery  during  the 
daytime  (Castilla  y  Leon,  Castilla-La  Mancha,  Cataluña, 
Comunidad Valenciana). Most of the peninsula had only a 
marginal  amount  of  rainfall  during  the  analysis  period; 
both  Castilla  y  Leon  and  Extremadura  experienced  their 
second  driest  1  July  to  15  August  period  in  our  records 
(since 1978). These dry conditions are experienced for the 
second consecutive year. Irrigation reservoirs in the south 
are  at  exceptionally  low  levels  (www.embalses.net),  and 
water  restrictions  in  the  southern  regions  are  being 
discussed but have not yet been implemented. 

the  harvesting  of 
Conditions  are  favourable  for 
sunflowers, which has started in the south. The harvesting 
of winter crops was completed successfully in all regions. 
Our  yield  forecasts  for  winter  crops  remain  essentially 

Italy 
Hot weather weakens growth of summer crops 

The overall yield expectations are average (maize) to weak 
(sunflowers,  soybean).  Around  the  end  of  July,  storm 
events locally caused serious damage to crops and fruit 
trees. 

In northern Italy, the weather in July and at the beginning 
of  August  was  slightly  warmer  and  wetter  than  usual 
(rainfall  +20 mm  to  +75 mm  compared  to  the  LTA). 
Between  10  and  15  August,  temperatures  increased  to 
reach  values  well  above  the  LTA,  with  daily  maxima 
between  32 °C  and  38 °C.  Such  temperatures  are 
suboptimal for maize and soybean, which were flowering 
at the time (with delay compared to an average season). 
In Emilia-Romagna, the heat stress, coupled with a long-
lasting  rainfall  deficit,  reduced  biomass  accumulation  in 
summer crops, which is now well below average. 
In  central  Italy,  the  weather  was  hotter  and  drier  than 
usual. The very hot temperatures (up to 40 °C) recorded 
after 10 August worsened the already weak condition of 
sunflower crops. Low yields are expected for sunflowers, 
where not irrigated. 

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Hungary 
Dry conditions negatively impact yield outlook for summer crops 

the country, and the yield outlook is still positive. 
For  summer  crops,  the  yield  forecast  was  maintained 
below the historical trend, with a slight reduction for grain 
maize. 

Rainfall in July and the first half of August was insufficient 
to  compensate  for  the  deficit  accumulated  since  the 
beginning  of  June.  Some  heavy  rain  events  occurred  in 
mid-July,  but  given  the  dry  soil  conditions  and  the  high 
evaporation demand, the water may not have been fully 
used  to  fill  soil  water  reserves.  Temperatures  recorded 
were above the LTA, with some heatwaves around the first 
and  last  weeks  of  July.  Cumulative  temperatures  during 
the reporting period are among the two highest recorded 
in our 40-year archive. 
Maize  and  sunflowers,  in  end  and  mid  flowering  stages 
respectively,  are  suffering  from  the  severe  soil  water 
deficit,  most  markedly  in  south-eastern  parts  of  the 
country.  The  heavy  rainfall  in  July  was  combined  with 
some hail, but the impact on crops is relatively minor at 
national scale. 
Winter and spring cereals are fully harvested throughout 

Romania 
Drought limiting summer crops in western and southern Romania 

slightly  downwards.  The  harvesting  campaign  for  winter 
crops has been largely completed. 

Romania  recorded  warmer-than-usual  conditions,  with 
temperature  anomalies  between  +1 °C  and  +4 °C 
compared  with  the  LTA.  The  average  temperatures 
recorded  were  the  second  highest  in  our  records; 
maximum temperatures up to 40 °C (locally up to 42 °C) 
were recorded in southern Romania. The heat in the south 
of Romania was aggravated by dryness, and the drought 
conditions  formerly  confined  to  the  Banat  region  now 
prevail  in  large  areas  of western  and  southern  Romania 
(Banat,  Oltenia  and  Muntenia),  with  negative  effects  on 
yield potentials for summer crops. Central, northern and 
eastern Romania experienced more favourable conditions, 
with rainfall closer to seasonal values. Consequently, the 
yield  forecasts  for  summer  crops  have  been  revised 

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Bulgaria 
Dry and hot weather deteriorating growing conditions for summer crops 

if dry conditions persist, this will further reduce the yield 
potentials for summer crops. 

and  storage  organ  weights  in  most  regions  (except  for 
Slovakia, where values are still below average). 
For most of the crops, we maintain the outlook in the July 
Bulletin. The yield forecast for grain maize in Austria was 
increased  due  to  the  favourable  conditions  during  the 
review  period.  The  forecast  for  rapeseed  in  Czechia  has 
been  revised  downward,  following  initial  post-harvest 
reports. 

Bulgaria experienced warmer-than-usual conditions, with 
temperature  anomalies  between  +1 °C  and  +4 °C 
compared  with  the  LTA.  The  temperatures  recorded  in 
western Bulgaria were among the highest in our records 
for the review period. With the exception of coastal and 
mountain areas, maximum temperatures reached up to 40 
°C in most parts of the country; even higher temperatures 
(up to 42 °C) were recorded in central-north and southern 
Bulgaria.  With  less  than  30  mm  of  rainfall  during  the 
analysis period, a large part of Bulgaria was substantially 
drier than usual. Hot temperatures and the lack of rainfall 
caused  a  decrease  in  soil  moisture  levels,  exposing 
summer crops to water stress. The yield of summer crops 
has therefore been revised slightly downwards. However, 

Austria, Czechia, and Slovakia 
Favourable conditions for summer crops 

than  average 

In  July,  warmer-than-usual  (2 °C  >  LTA)  temperatures 
prevailed  in  Slovakia,  while  conditions  were  slightly 
in  Austria  and  Czechia. 
warmer 
Temperatures during the first half of August were slightly 
lower than usual. Rainfall totals were significantly above 
average,  except  for  southern  Austria  (around  average). 
Rainfall  occurred  mainly  in  the  form  of  thunderstorms, 
with  high  spatial  variability,  and  was  locally  associated 
with strong winds and hail.  
Harvest operations for winter cereals gained speed during 
the  second  dekad  of  July  and  were  mostly  completed 
during the first dekad of August, despite interruptions due 
to  rainy  weather.  Our  model  indicates  below-average 
storage organ weights in Austria and Slovakia, and around 
average values in Czechia, which is in line with initial field 
reports on yields.  
Biomass accumulation of summer crops gained speed due 
to favourable conditions during the review period. After a 
difficult  spring  and  early  summer,  maize  has  reached 
around  or  above-average  seasonal  values  for  biomass 

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Denmark and Sweden 
Yield outlook remains positive but slightly reduced 

particularly dry during the season. Our yield forecasts for 
winter and spring cereals have been slightly reduced but 
remain positive, above the 5-year average. 

Temperatures were above average in July and decreased 
to  below  seasonal  values  in  August.  Sunshine  duration 
was generally close to the average, but higher than usual 
in  Östra  Sverige  where  the  lowest  precipitation  was 
observed.  Rainfall  was  above  or  close  to  average,  and 
particularly  abundant at  the  end  of  July  and  in  the  first 
dekad of August. 
Winter  rapeseed  has  mostly  been  harvested,  while  the 
harvest  of  cereals  is  under way with  some  interruptions 
due  to  the  rains  and  low  temperatures  in  August.  First 
yield reports are variable as a consequence of the warm 
temperatures  and  regionally  uneven  rainfall  distribution 
during  the  summer  months.  In  particular,  spring  barley 
yields are expected to vary from good to below-average 
values,  as  some  areas  in  both  countries  have  been 

Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia 
Reduced yield outlook after warm July 

wheat.  In  Finland,  the  cereal  harvest  started  during  the 
first  week  of  August,  with  below-average  yield 
expectations.  Yield  forecasts  have  been  decreased  for 
winter and spring crops. 

The  month  of  July  was  characterised  by  warm 
temperatures,  and  in  the  Baltic  countries  maximum 
temperatures remained higher than 30 °C for the first 5-
6 days of the second dekad of July. Colder-than-usual or 
close-to-average temperatures prevailed during the first 
2  weeks  of  August.  Considering  the  period  as  a  whole, 
cumulative precipitation was close to seasonal values in 
Lithuania  and  Latvia,  and  below  average  in  Estonia  and 
Finland. 
In  all  the  countries,  rainfall  was  mainly 
concentrated in the first 2 weeks of August.  
The warm weather of July shortened grain filling for cereal 
crops and negatively affected grain weight and potential 
yields, especially where soil water contents were low due 
to below-average precipitation during June and July. In the 
Baltic  countries,  the  harvest  of  cereals  and  rapeseed  is 
underway, starting 2 weeks earlier than usual for winter 

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Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands 
Difficult harvest due to persistent wet weather 

Our  forecasts  for  winter  wheat  and  spring  barley  were 
revised  slightly  downward  but  remain  above  the  5-year 
average.  The  forecasts  for  potatoes  and  sugar  beet 
remain essentially unchanged. 

Frequent rainfall and relatively cool temperatures, which 
have  characterised  the  weather  since  the  end  of  June, 
continued throughout the current review period. Extreme 
rain  events,  as  reported  in  the  July  Bulletin,  have  not 
occurred since mid-July, but the high frequency of smaller 
events  hampered  harvesting  and  other  field  operations. 
The  harvesting  of  winter  barley  benefited  from  a  drier 
window around 20 July, whereas the harvesting of winter 
wheat has been in full swing only since 12 August. 
The  continued  wet  weather  is  unfavourable  for  grain 
quality and will also have incurred some harvest losses, 
most markedly in Belgium and the northernmost part of 
the Netherlands, where rains were most persistent.  
Conditions  have  generally  been  favourable  for  biomass 
accumulation  in  summer  crops,  but  they  would  also 
benefit from more sunny weather.  

Greece and Cyprus 
Prolonged heatwave increases irrigation demands 

Our yield forecasts are revised (moderately) downward for 
green  and  grain  maize,  and  are  in  line  with  the  5-year 
average for the other summer crops. 

Lack of rain and prolonged high temperatures continued 
during the review period. Since the end of July, Greece has 
recorded a total of 11 consecutive days with temperatures 
above 37 °C – known as kàfsonas  3. This is an unusually 
long  heatwave  which  has  been  characterised  by 
exceptionally hot maximum temperatures. 
These  extreme  weather  conditions  reduced  biomass 
accumulation,  which  is  now  around  to  below  average  in 
Western Macedonia; this can be seen in our crop biomass 
simulations for summer crops. Some concerns are noted 
for green and grain maize, because of the increased water 
losses and excessive evapotranspiration. This is leading to 
moderate  reduction  in  yield  and/or  degradation  of  grain 
quality.  The  condition  of  summer  crops  in  this  region  is 
being closely monitored.  

3 Kàfsonas is defined by the National Observatory of Athens as 
a heatwave lasting at least 3 days with maximum 

temperatures above 37 °C and minimum temperatures above 
26 °C. 

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Slovenia and Croatia 
Yield outlook for grain maize below the 5-year average 

yield outlook for grain maize also remains below the 5-
year  average  in  Croatia.  The  harvesting  campaign  for 
winter cereals has mainly finished. 

The analysis period was warmer than usual, with average 
temperatures between 1 °C and 2 °C  above the LTA. A lack 
of  precipitation  was  recorded  in  the  southern  part  of 
Jadranska  Hrvatska,  where  less  than  30 mm  of  rainfall 
fell  during  the  analysis  period.  Maximum  temperatures 
reached up to 38 °C (locally in coastal areas and eastern 
Croatia  up  to  40 °C).  In  general,  long  periods  of  dry 
weather  alternated  with  regionally  unevenly  distributed 
rainfall.  This  weather  pattern  contributed  to  decreasing 
soil moisture levels. The lack of soil moisture in eastern 
Slovenia  was  recorded  during  the  flowering  period  for 
grain  maize,  which  decreased  the  crop  yield  potential. 
Consequently, we have reduced the yield outlook for grain 
maize in Slovenia, which is now below the 5-year average. 
Due to hot weather and longer periods without rainfall, the 

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4.2.  United Kingdom 

Positive yield outlook despite a delayed harvest 

Yield forecasts for wheat and barley are maintained at the 
same  level  as  reported  in  the  July  issue  of  the  Bulletin; 
slightly above the 5-year average.  

Temperatures followed the LTA in July and the first half 
of  August  in  the  south,  while  in  Scotland  temperatures 
were slightly above the LTA. Cumulative rainfall was in line 
with the LTA throughout the country. Rainfall occurred in 
frequent events, with just one dry period of about 10 days 
from 12 to 22 July.  
As of mid-August, up to 90% of winter barley has been 
harvested, with a slight delay as previously noted. Harvest 
of  winter  and  spring  wheat  has  just  started,  much  later 
than usual due to the delay in phenological development 
during the cold spring and the rains during the end of grain 
filling and ripening. Preliminary field reports confirm the 
positive yield outlook, close to the 5-year average in most 
regions. 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 8 – 23 August 2021 

4.3.  Black Sea Area 

Ukraine 
Harvest of winter cereals almost completed; positive yield outlook for summer crops 

Summer  crops  benefited  from  the  high  rainfall,  which 
favourably maintained soil moisture levels and mitigated 
any negative effect of the high temperatures. Hence, the 
yield outlook for grain maize was revised upward. 

experienced 

significantly 

Stormy  weather  covered  most  of  Ukraine  during  the 
review  period.  The  southern  and  western  parts  of  the 
country 
above-average 
precipitation, while a 10-30% rain deficit was observed in 
north-eastern parts (especially in Kharkivs’ka and Sums’ka 
oblasts).  
A  positive  thermal  anomaly  prevailed  throughout  the 
country, especially in northern parts where temperatures 
were  2 °C  to  4 °C  higher  than  usual.  Daily  maxima 
exceeded  the  threshold  of  35 °C  only  for  a  few  days 
between  15  and  20  July  in  south-eastern  regions. 
Temperatures decreased in the last few days of the review 
period.  
The frequent and abundant rainfall caused delays to the 
harvest of winter cereals, which is now almost completed. 
Post-harvest reports confirm a new record yield for winter 
wheat. 

precipitation  since  early  August,  causing  floods  but  with 
marginal damage to summer crops. 

Turkey 
The difficult season continues 

In Turkey, the harvest of winter crops has been completed 
–  in  the  last  regions  (e.g.  Kayseri)  by  the  end  of  July  – 
concluding a quite unfavourable season for winter cereals. 
However, the difficult season continues for summer crops: 
there is limited availability of water for irrigation, due to 
below-average precipitation during winter and spring, and 
its exceptional use during spring to sustain winter cereals.  
Contextually, in the Aegean provinces, where a large share 
of maize is growing, the temperatures recorded since July 
are  among  the  hottest  ever  recorded  (e.g.  Adana),  thus 
decreasing  biomass  accumulation.  More  favourable 
conditions for biomass accumulation of summer crops are 
observed in Tekirdag and in western Anatolian regions. The 
Black  Sea  regions  have  received  a  huge  surplus  of 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 8 – 23 August 2021 

4.4.  European Russia and Belarus 

European Russia 
Warmer-than-usual summer limited yield of winter wheat 

The  fore  mentioned  wet  episode  was  beneficial  for 
summer  crops  and  our  crop  model  points  to  strong 
biomass accumulation for grain maize.  

Following the heatwave that occurred at the end of June, 
warmer-than-usual  conditions  continued  during  the 
current  review  period.  Temperatures  were  2 °C  to  4 °C 
above  average  in  most  okrugs,  while  precipitation  was 
10%  to  50%  below  average  in  the  Central  and  Volga 
okrugs.  This  brought  additional  phenological  stress  to 
winter  wheat,  affecting  grain  kernel  weight.  Hence,  the 
yield outlook for winter wheat is further reduced. 
Abundant  rainfall  occurred  during  the  second  week  of 
August in most of south-western Russia (locally up to 70 
mm  in  the  Krasnodarskiy  oblast),  which  interrupted  the 
wheat harvest for some days. For the country as a whole, 
according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, 15.2 Mha 
had been harvested by 6 August (before the onset of the 
rain).  

Belarus 
Fair conditions for maize, except in the dry south-east 

most  winter  crops  are  now  harvested,  despite 
interruptions  due  to  rainy  weather  at  the  beginning  of 
August.  
We maintain our yield expectations for barley, wheat and 
grain maize. 

Warmer-than-usual  (3 °C  >  LTA)  temperatures  prevailed 
in July, while the first half of August was colder than usual. 
Heat spells with maximum temperatures above 30 °C for 
several consecutive days were observed in the middle of 
July. Cumulative rainfall was significantly below average 
in the eastern regions (Gomel and Mogilev), while it was 
above average in western regions (Brest and Grodno).  
Biomass accumulation and storage organ weights of grain 
maize are below seasonal averages in the eastern regions 
(due to the rain deficit), and above seasonal values in the 
western regions. Rains at the beginning of August provided 
adequate  soil  moisture  conditions  for  maize  kernel 
formation  throughout  the  country,  except  for  the  Gomel 
region which remained dry. 
Grain filling of winter crops was shortened by higher-than-
usual temperatures in July. Harvest operations for winter 
cereals gained speed during the second dekad of July and 

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5.  Crop yield forecast 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 8 – 23 August 2021 

NB: 

Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10 000 ha per country with sufficently long and coherent yield time series.

Sources:

2016-2021 data come from DG Agriculture and Rural Development short-term-outlook data (dated July 2021, received on 27.07.2021), 
Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 27.07.2021) and EES (last update: 15.11.2017).
Non-EU 2016-2020 data come from USDA, Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 27.07.2021), Ministry for 
Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine, FAO and PSD-online.
2021 yields come from MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (output up to 20.08.2021).

EU aggregate after 1.2.2020 is reported.

The column header '%21/5yrs’ stands for the 2021 change with respect to the 5-year average(%). Similarly, '%21/20’ stands for the 2021 
change with respect to 2020(%).
* The EU figures do not include green maize forecasts for Sweden since recent data on yields were not consistent.

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6.  Atlas 

Temperature regime 

Precipitation 

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Climatic water balance 

Weather events 

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Crop development stages and precocity 

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Relative soil moisture 

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Precipitation and temperature anomalies around flowering and 
ripening 

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Precipitation around harvesting 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 8 – 23 August 2021 

JRC MARS Bulletins 2021 
Publication 

Reference 

Date 

25 Jan 
22 Feb 
15 Mar 

26 Apr 

25 May 

21 Jun 

26 Jul 

23 Aug 

20 Sep 

25 Oct 

22 Nov 

13 Dec 

Agromet analysis 
Agromet analysis 
Agromet analysis, yield 
forecast 
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing, 
pasture analysis, 
sowing conditions, yield 
forecast 
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing, 
pasture analysis, 
sowing update, yield 
forecast 
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing, 
pasture analysis, rice 
analysis, yield forecast  
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing, 
pasture analysis, 
harvesting conditions, 
yield forecast 
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing, 
pasture update, 
harvesting update, yield 
forecast 
Agromet analysis, 
remote sensing, 
pasture analysis, rice 
analysis, harvesting 
update, yield forecast,  
Agromet analysis, 
pasture update, sowing 
conditions, harvesting 
update, yield forecast  
Agromet analysis, 
sowing update, 
harvesting update 
Agromet analysis 

Vol. 29 No 1 
Vol. 29 No 2 
Vol. 29 No 3 

Vol. 29 No 4 

Vol. 29 No 5 

The JRC MARS Bulletin – Crop monitoring in Europe is a 
JRC–European Commission publication from 
MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 – Directorate for Sustainable 
Resources) 

JRC MARS Bulletins are available at 
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins 

JRC MARS Explorer for regularly updated maps and 
graphs https://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu 

Analysis and reports 
B. Baruth, S. Bassu, W. Ben Aoun, I. Biavetti, A. Ceglar, I. 
Cerrani,  Y.  Chemin,  M.  Claverie,  P.  De  Palma,  D. 
Fumagalli, R. Lecerf, G. Manfron, L. Nisini, L. Panarello, 
G. Ronchetti, L. Seguini, A. Toreti, M. van den Berg, M. van 
der Velde, Z. Zajac, A. Zucchini 

Vol. 29 No 6 

Reporting support  
SeproTec, I. Biavetti, G. Mulhern 

Edition  
M. van den Berg, B. Baruth 

Vol. 29 No 7 

Data production 
MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup 
(NL), VITO (BE) 

Vol. 29 No 8 

Contact 
JRC D5/MARS4CAST  
JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu  

Legal notice 
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on 
behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which 
might be made of this publication. 

Disclaimer 
The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation 
and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not 
necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.   

Technical note  
The  long-term  average  (LTA)  used  within  this  Bulletin  as  a 
reference  is  calculated  on  the  basis  of  weather  data  from 
1991-2020 

Vol. 29 No 9 

Vol. 29 No 10 

Vol. 29 No 11 

Vol. 29 No 12 

Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of 
the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission 
is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout 
the whole policy cycle.  

PDF: KJ-AW-21-008-EN-N ISSN 2443-8278 doi:10.2760/130115