Technical assistance services to assess the energy savings potentials at national and European level : Member State annex report.
Date: 2021-08-03
Institutions: Directorate-General for Energy
Subjects: cost-effectiveness analysis, energy consumption, energy demand, energy market, energy saving, fuel, heating, housing, industrial enterprise, nuclear technology, report, road transport, technical cooperation

Technical assistance services to 
assess the energy savings 
potentials at national and 
European Level 

Member State Annex Report 

Written by Yeen Chan, Pravnick 
Heer, Krzysztof Strug, Dinachi 
Onuzo, Lucy Pemble, Julia 
Menge 

February 2021 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Directorate-General for Energy 

Directorate B — Just Transition, Consumers, Energy Efficiency and Innovation 

Unit B.2 — Energy Efficiency 

Contact: Maciej Grzeszczyk 

E-mail:  maciej.grzeszczyk@ec.europa.eu  

European Commission 

B-1049 Brussels 

 
 
 
 
 
 
EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Technical assistance services to assess the 
energy savings potentials at national and 
European Level 

Member State Annex Report 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers  
to your questions about the European Union. 

Freephone number (*): 

00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 

(*) 
may charge you). 

The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels 

LEGAL NOTICE 

The information and views set out in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the 
official opinion of the Commission. The Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this 
study. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on the Commission’s behalf may be held responsible for 
the use which may be made of the information contained therein. 

More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://www.europa.eu). 

More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://www.europa.eu). 

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2021 

PDF   978-92-76-40677-8 

 doi: 10.2833/367828 

MJ-09-21-325-EN-N 

© European Union, 2021 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table of contents 

Introduction 

 ..................................................................................................................... 2 

Annex 1 

Annex 2 

Annex 3 

Annex 4 

Annex 5 

Annex 6 

Annex 7 

Annex 8 

Annex 9 

Austria .......................................................................................................... 7 

Belgium .......................................................................................................48 

Bulgaria .......................................................................................................90 

Croatia ...................................................................................................... 133 

Cyprus ....................................................................................................... 175 

Czech Republic ......................................................................................... 216 

Denmark ................................................................................................... 257 

Estonia ...................................................................................................... 298 

Finland ...................................................................................................... 339 

Annex 10 

France ....................................................................................................... 380 

Annex 11 

Germany ................................................................................................... 421 

Annex 12 

Greece ...................................................................................................... 462 

Annex 13 

Hungary .................................................................................................... 503 

Annex 14 

Ireland ....................................................................................................... 545 

Annex 15 

Italy ........................................................................................................... 586 

Annex 16 

Latvia ........................................................................................................ 627 

Annex 17 

Lithuania ................................................................................................... 668 

Annex 18 

Luxembourg .............................................................................................. 709 

Annex 19 

Malta ......................................................................................................... 750 

Annex 20 

Netherlands ............................................................................................... 791 

Annex 21 

Poland ....................................................................................................... 832 

Annex 22 

Portugal ..................................................................................................... 872 

Annex 23 

Romania .................................................................................................... 912 

Annex 24 

Slovakia .................................................................................................... 953 

Annex 25 

Slovenia .................................................................................................... 994 

Annex 26 

Spain ....................................................................................................... 1035 

Annex 27 

Sweden ................................................................................................... 1076 

Annex 28 

United Kingdom ....................................................................................... 1116 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Introduction 
ICF supported the Commission to analyse and quantitatively assess in depth the remaining 
energy saving potential, and energy saving options, across the residential, commercial, 
industrial and road transport sector. The assessment was carried across all 27 EU Member 
States (plus UK) by applying ICF’s Energy Saving Opportunity Assessment Tool at Member 
State level, a bottom up modelling assessment of energy saving potential across the sectors 
mentioned. The base year applied for this assessment is with reference to 2018. However, 
the period of assessment is from 2020 – 2050 for ease of reference and comparison with 
Member State National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs).  

For this assessment, all energy saving measures are referred to as Energy Saving 
Opportunities (ESOs). ESOs are grouped into Programmes, which is setup to group up 
similar ESOs which can be applied to the same subsector, fuel type and end-use category. 
The Programme energy savings are categorised into technical and economic potential. 

Technical saving potential. The technical energy saving potential is the level of energy 
savings that could be achieved if the baseline technology of an energy using equipment, 
products or processes within the respective sectors were replaced with higher technical 
efficiency ESOs or additional energy saving measures, by implementing the suite of ESOs 
within the respective Programme at a pre-defined uptake rate. The technical saving potential 
for these individual ESOs applied are then aggregated to a Programme and presented on a 
Programme level to support policy makers in scoping out the relevant areas for energy 
saving potential. 

Economic saving potential. The economic saving potential quantifies the level of energy 
savings that could be achieved by implementing only cost-effective Programmes. Each 
Programme will be tested for cost-effectiveness using a Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE) 
methodology. CCE represents the lifetime cost of providing an energy service using an 
efficient technology measure that otherwise would be provided by an inefficient baseline 
technology. It is the equivalent cost incurred to save 1 kwh of energy (specific to a 
technology and usage pattern) over the assessment period (2020 – 2050). The lower the 
CCE, the more economically attractive the Programme is. If CCE is less than the applicable 
fuel (e.g., electricity, gas, coal, etc) tariff for the given Programme, then it is deemed to be 
cost-effective 

The assessment also identifies how best to address these energy saving potential, in 
consideration of the EU energy and climate policy targets for 2030, with elements up to 2040 
and 2050. 

The methodology and EU level energy saving levels are presented in the report entitled 
‘Summary of EU Results’. 

This ‘Member State Annex Report’ presents the energy saving profile for the 27 Member 
States (plus UK). Each Annex is structured as follows: 

■  Section 1 presents the sector technical and economic saving potential metrics. The summary 

table in this section provides a comparison of the projected energy saving potential by 2030 
against the Member State Article 7 energy saving target1, 

■  Section 2 presents the top Programmes with highest likelihood of success and ESOs with highest 

technical saving potential 

■  Section 3 presents the technical recommendation for improving MS energy saving potential  

In the earlier version of this modelling assessment, energy savings through the application of 
heat pumps for residential sector were omitted. Annex 2 (of Summary of EU Results report) 

1 Member State Article 7 energy saving targets were calculated based on Member State final National Energy and 
Climate Plans (NECPs). 

2 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                
was developed as an addendum to this Member State Annex Report, specifically to quantify 
the additional annual energy saving potential through application of heat pumps in residential 
sector by 2030. The results are presented in Table A2.1 of the Summary of EU Results 
report and increases the Member State energy savings potential for the residential sector, 
however it is not included in the energy savings potential for the Member State annexes of 
this report. 

The top Programmes with the highest likelihood of success are presented in a bubble chart. 
Each energy saving Programme is organised according to the subsector, end-use and 
primary fuel saving categories. The energy saving potential are presented according to the 
following 3 parameters. Each of the parameter is given a score of 0 to 5; 0 indicating least 
cost-effective / least likely to succeed and 5 indicating most cost-effective / most likely to 
succeed. Further explanation of the parameters as follows: 

Size of the bubble. The bubble size indicates the magnitude of (technical and economic) 
energy saving potential for the respective programme, i.e. a larger sized bubble presents a 
higher energy saving potential than a smaller sized bubble. 

Cost-effectiveness axis. ESOs within an energy programme are individually scored based on 
its cost-effectiveness (based on a scale of 0 – 5 as above mentioned). The resulting average 
score of all relevant ESOs within the energy saving programme is presented in the output 
bubble chart. The most cost-effective Programmes are allocated a score of 5, while the least 
cost-effective Programmes are scored 02. 

Likelihood of success. Each ESO is assessed for its likelihood of success based on two sub-
parameters: (i) programme complexity and (ii) policy feasibility. The average score of the two 
above-mentioned sub-parameters make up the final score of the likelihood of success. 

■  Programme complexity measures the technical complexity of implementing the 

associated ESOs associated with the Programme. For the residential sector, this is 
focussed on the intrusiveness of the ESO. For commercial and industrial sector, this is 
emphasised on business disruption and resource intensity. The qualitative 
assessment has been undertaken by ICF technical experts assuming a ‘typical 
installation’ scenario across the sectors. To maintain consistency, only a scoring of 1 
(low), 3 (medium) and 5 (high) are applied. 

■  Policy feasibility takes into account if there are sufficient policy measures within the 
Member State to support further uptake of the specific Programmes. The scoring for 
this parameter is obtained directly from Odyssee-Mure database3. A scoring of 1 – 5 
is applied, 1 being least successful, and 5 being most successful. 

Objectives of this assessment 

The objective of this assessment is to analyse and quantitatively assess the energy saving 
potential, projected from 2020 - 2050, considering both technical and cost-effective Energy 
Saving Opportunities (ESOs). The output of this assessment provides technical information 
to EU and national policy makers on additional potential measures which could support 
further implementation of energy saving potential at EU and national level. 

2 The cost-effectiveness score provides a scaled approach in comparing of the cost-effectiveness of top 
performing Programmes, it does not correlate directly to the magnitude of the CCE itself. Some Programmes with 
extremely high CCE (i.e. low cost-effective score) are not included in the comparison, to avoid skewing the cost 
effectiveness scale for other Programmes. 
3 Methodology of Odyssee Mure can be accessed here:  
http://www.measures-odyssee-mure.eu/successful_info.asp 

3 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                
Scope of assessment 

This assessment covers the EU final energy consumption of the following 4 sectors: 
residential, commercial, industrial and transport. The assessment breaks down the energy 
saving potential across 3 further sub-levels: 

Level 1 defines the subsector / subset of each sector. For each subsector / subset, the 
typology of the building or industrial plant is defined. For the transport sector, it defines the 
categories of inland transportation modes. The typology will be expanded across each 
subsector and subset to capture the national sector landscape. 

Level 2 defines the energy end-use categories for each of the typology established in Level 
1. This level provides a high-level understanding of how energy is being used for each of the 
subsector / subset typology. 

Level 3 defines the baseline technology of the end-use category for each subsector typology. 
This level provides a breakdown of the baseline technology type currently for each end-use 
category. 

A summary of the abovementioned level of assessment presented in Table 1. 

Table 1.  Level of assessment within each Member State 

Sector/ 

Sub-Sector 

End-use category 

Types of fuel 

Baseline technology 
categories 

Space heating 

Natural gas, electricity, 
refined petroleum 
product, coal and 
biomass. 

Boilers, air heaters, heat 
pumps, insulation, air 
infiltration, glazing, draft 
proofing. 

Hot water heating 

Natural gas, electricity.  Boilers, hot water tank, 

shower, faucet. 

Lighting 

Cooking 

Electricity. 

CFL, incandescent. 

Electricity, natural gas.  Ovens. 

Appliances 

Electricity. 

Fans and pumps 

Electricity 

Cooling 

Electricity 

Commercial/ 

Space heating 

Natural gas, electricity, 
refined petroleum 
product, coal and 
biomass. 

Washers, dryers, refrigerators, 
televisions, PCs. 

Ventilation complete with 
ducting system, pool pumps 

Heat pumps, insulation, air 
infiltration, glazing, draft 
proofing. 

Boilers, fans and pumps, 
motors, air heaters, heat 
pumps, electric heaters, 
insulation, air infiltration, 
glazing, draft proofing, 
building control. 

Hot water heating 

Cooling 

Natural gas, electricity, 
refined petroleum 
product, coal and 
biomass. 

Natural gas, electricity, 
refined petroleum 
product, coal and 
biomass. 

Boilers, pumps, insulation, hot 
water tank, commercial 
laundry, electric water 
heaters, shower, faucet, 
building control 

Chillers, fans and pumps, 
motors, heat pumps, make-up 
air units, insulation, air 

4 

Residential/ 

1.  Single family 
houses,  

2.  Multi-family 
apartments. 

1.  Education 

2.  Hotel & 

restaurants 

3.  private and 

public offices 

4.  wholesale & 

retail trade 

5.  health 

6.  other 

commercial. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Sector/ 

Sub-Sector 

End-use category 

Types of fuel 

Lighting 

Electricity 

Baseline technology 
categories 

infiltration, glazing, draft 
proofing, building control. 

Metal halide, linear lamps, 
high bay, CFL, incandescent. 

Cooking 

Electricity, natural gas  Broilers, convection ovens, 

Refrigeration 

Electricity 

Steam cooker, fryers, griddles, 
hot food holding cabinets. 

Commercial refrigerators, 
walk-in cooler, walk-in 
freezers, commercial ice-
maker, glass door coolers, 
motors, compressors. 

IT & Multimedia 

Electricity 

Power modules. 

Other equipment 

Electricity 

Commercial pool pumps 

3.  Petroleum 
refineries 

4.  Paper & pulp 

5.  Non ferrous 

metal 

6.  Non-metallic 
mineral 

7.  Food & 

beverage 

8.  Machinery 

Industry/ 

Process heating 

1. 

Iron & steel 

2.  Chemicals & 

Natural gas, electricity, 
refined petroleum 
product, coal and 
biomass. 

petrochemicals 

Machine drives 

Electricity 

HVAC 

Electricity 

Process heating systems 
(indirect and direct), Process 
heating control systems, 
design optimization, waste 
heat recovery 

Motors, pumps, fans/blowers, 
machine drives. 

Comfort heating system, 
comfort cooling system, 
ventilation system. 

Gas compressors 

Natural gas 

Natural gas fired compressors 

Compressed systems  Electricity 

Compressed air system 

Process cooling 

Electricity 

Chillers, cooling towers, 
refrigerant compressors 

Lighting 

Electricity 

Indoor, outdoor. 

Process specific 

Other 

Natural gas, electricity, 
refined petroleum 
product, coal and 
biomass. 

Natural gas, electricity, 
refined petroleum 

Bespoke industrial specific 
processes. 

Sub-metering, process 
integration, Energy 
Management System. 

5 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sector/ 

Sub-Sector 

End-use category 

Types of fuel 

Baseline technology 
categories 

product, coal and 
biomass. 

Road transport/ 

Private cars 

Refined petroleum 
product, electricity 

Average vehicle efficiency, 
average efficiency tyres. 

1.  Passenger 
transport 

Public road transport  Refined petroleum 
product, electricity 

Average vehicle efficiency, 
average efficiency tyres. 

2.  Freight transport 

Light duty vehicles 

Refined petroleum 
product, electricity 

Average vehicle efficiency, 
average efficiency tyres. 

Heavy goods vehicles  Refined petroleum 
product, electricity 

Average vehicle efficiency, 
average efficiency tyres. 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Annex 1  Austria  

A1.1  Summary 

Table A1.1 

Summary of modelling results for Austria 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

6,195 

2,559 

9,692 

6,565 

25,011 

 1,604  

 538  

 2,310  

 1,226  

 5,678  

 1,078  

 237  

 2,236  

 738  

 4,289  

26% 

21% 

24% 

19% 

23% 

17% 

9% 

23% 

11% 

17% 

2,160 

August 2020  

7 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A1.1.2 Residential 

Figure A1.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential for the residential sector according to its end use. Space 
heating contains the highest potential energy savings over time, followed by hot water heating. In 2030, the two highest potential energy 
savings by end use are space heating (858.6 ktoe) and hot water heating (659.6 ktoe). 

Figure A1.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

8 

 
 
 
 
Figure A1.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on residential sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 1031.1 ktoe. 

Figure A1.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

9 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential for residential sector over a timeframe (2020-2050) according 
to its end use. Space heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
space heating (855.9 ktoe) and hot water heating (136.7 ktoe).   

Figure A1.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

10 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on residential sub-sectors. Single 
family houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 686.5 ktoe. 

Figure A1.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

11 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential for the residential sector over 
time. In 2030, technical energy consumption scenario is 4591.2 ktoe (26% saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 
5116.9 ktoe (17% saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 6194.7 ktoe. 

Figure A1.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Austria 

August 2020  

12 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Austria’s final energy consumption by 1603.5 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A1.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its primary fuel type. Natural gas (43.92%), RPP (27.04%), 
and electricity (21.03%) contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A1.6 

Primary energy impacts for Austria based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

13 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A1.1.3 Commercial 

Figure A1.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential for commercial sector according to its end use. Space 
heating contains the highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space 
heating (285.1 ktoe) and water heating (126.7 ktoe).   

Figure A1.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

14 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on commercial sub-sectors. Private 
and public offices and hotels and restaurants contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, private and public offices have a 
potential savings of 195.6 ktoe and hotels and restaurants have potential energy savings of 145.2 ktoe. 

Figure A1.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

15 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential for commercial sector over a timeframe of (2020-2050) 
according to its end use. Space heating, water heating, and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential 
economic savings by end use are lighting (99.1 ktoe) and water heating (78.4 ktoe). 

Figure A1.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on commercial energy end-uses 

August 2020  

16 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on commercial sub-sectors. 
Hotels and restaurants contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of hotels and restaurants are 
76.8 ktoe, followed by private and public office 63.3 ktoe. 

Figure A1.10 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

17 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential for commercial sector over 
time. In 2030, technical energy consumption scenario is 2020.7 ktoe (21% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption 
scenario is 2321.7 ktoe (9% energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 2559.1 ktoe. 

Figure A1.11 

Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Austria 

August 2020  

18 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Austria’s final energy consumption by 538.4 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A1.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its primary fuel type. Electricity (57.00%), other (25.86%) 
and natural gas (11.83%) contains the highest technical potential impact. 

Figure A1.12 

Primary energy impacts for Austria based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

19 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A1.1.4 Industrial 

Figure A1.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential for the industrial sector according to its end use. Process 
heating contains the highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process 
heating (1712 ktoe) and machine drives (342 ktoe).   

Figure A1.13 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

20 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on industrial sub-sectors. The 
potential technical savings are split across many sub-sectors, with other industry and iron and steel containing the highest potential savings 
over time. In 2030, iron and steel have a potential savings of 506 ktoe and other industry has potential energy savings of 482 ktoe. 

Figure A1.14 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

21 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential for industrial sector over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according 
to its end use. Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic 
savings by end use are process heating (1713 ktoe) and machine drives (342 ktoe). 

Figure A1.15 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

22 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on industrial sub-sectors. The 
potential economic savings are split across many sub-sectors, with other industry and iron and steel containing high potential savings over 
time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of other industry are 479 ktoe, followed by iron and steel 475 ktoe. 

Figure A1.16 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

23 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential for industrial sector over time. 
In 2030, technical energy consumption scenario is 7382 ktoe (24% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 
7456 ktoe (23% energy savings against BAU), and actual BAU is 9692 ktoe. 

Figure A1.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Austria 

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Austria’s final energy consumption by 2310 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

24 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to fuel type. Natural gas is (33%), electricity (46%), RPP 
(6%) contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A1.18 

Primary energy impacts for Austria based on technical potential for industrial sector 

August 2020  

25 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A1.1.5 Transport  

Figure A1.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to transport sector end use. In 2030, the two 
highest potential energy savings by end use are heavy goods vehicles (529 ktoe) and private cars (493 ktoe).   

Figure A1.19 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

26 

 
 
 
  
 
Figure A1.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on transportation sub-sectors. 
Passenger transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passport transport has a potential savings of 655 ktoe and 
freight transport has potential energy savings of 571 ktoe. 

Figure A1.20 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on transport sub-sector 

August 2020  

27 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to transport sector 
end use. Private cars and heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time after 2035. In 2030, the two highest potential 
economic savings by end use are heavy good vehicles (529 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (190 ktoe).   

Figure A1.21 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

28 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on transportation sub-sectors. 
Passenger transport contains the highest potential over time after 2035. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of freight transport is 
571 ktoe, followed by passenger transport (167 ktoe). 

Figure A1.22 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Austria based on transport sub-sector 

August 2020  

29 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A1.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential for transport sector over time. 
In 2030, technical energy consumption scenario is 5338.7 ktoe (19% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario 
is 5826.8 ktoe (11% energy savings against BAU), and actual BAU is 6564.8 ktoe. 

Figure A1.23 

Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Austria 

August 2020  

30 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Austria’s final energy consumption by 1226.1 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A1.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to fuel type. Gasoline/diesel (98.85%) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

Figure A1.24 

Primary energy impacts for Austria based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

31 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A1.2  Discussion 

A1.2.1 Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A1.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating and hot water heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A1.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Austria 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

279.4 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

207.5 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

171.0 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

147.4 

135.4 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  114.8 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

104.7 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

71.0 

70.5 

65.1 

4.95 

12.37 

4.94 

4.95 

12.26 

15.20 

4.90 

8.56 

2.47 

15.15 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

The largest savings are for space heating programmes which present technical and economic savings of 773.1 ktoe by 2030. Hot water 
heating programmes make up 5 of the top 10 technical programmes, present 593.8 ktoe by 2030. However only 71.0 ktoe is evaluated as 
being economic saving potential.  

August 2020  

32 

 
 
 
The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the residential sector are shown in Figure A1.25 and all have a high likelihood to succeed 
owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of acceptance with stakeholders based on 
previous measures. There are 2 lighting-based programmes, which are now included owing to their cost effectiveness. The end use with the 
lowest likelihood of success tends to be space heating. The programme with the highest likelihood of success with a score of 4.5 are the 
lighting programme for multi-family homes and single-family homes.  

Lighting in multi-family houses (CCE of 0.50 cent/kWh) and are significantly cheaper to implement than programmes focusing on natural 
gas-based space heating, in single family homes (CCE of 12.4 cent/kWh). 

Figure A1.25 

Top energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Austria in 2030 

August 2020  

33 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A1.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Multiple end-use.  Energy-efficient homes (20% above code) are design ESOs related to multiple energy end use (space heating, hot 
water heating and cooling) with a technical saving potential totalling 87.2 ktoe by 2030 owing to the very low current uptake of the ESO 
(10%). Net-zero-ready homes also is an area with the highest energy saving potential owing to the low uptake of the ESO. 

■  Hot water heating. The three hot water heating ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling 246.5 ktoe. Low flow shower head 

and wastewater heat recovery systems have a relatively low current uptake and the remaining potential by 2030 is high.  

■  Space heating. There are 2 specific ESOs which focus on space heating energy end-use. They are thermal curtains, and basement wall 

insulation, which present 177.5 ktoe technical energy savings by 2030. 

■  Space heating and cooling. 3 ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within space heating and space cooling. The 
largest of which is the uptake of wall insulation. In total the technical energy saving potential for ESOs within these end-uses is 259.1 
ktoe.  

Table A1.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Austria in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space 
heating 

Thermal Curtains 

Space heating 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Hot water heating 

Wall Insulation 

Air Infiltration 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code) 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Hot water 
heating, Cooling 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Space heating 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Space heating, Cooling 

10 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Hot water heating 

189.4 

105.8 

99.2 

97.6 

90.0 

87.2 

82.6 

71.7 

71.6 

64.6 

August 2020  

10% 

5% 

50% 

36% 

36% 

10% 

10% 

36% 

36% 

50% 

57% 

45% 

83% 

69% 

75% 

50% 

100% 

69% 

69% 

90% 

34 

 
 
 
A1.2.2 Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A1.4. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating, lighting and water heating quantified as follows: 

Table A1.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Austria 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Private and Public Offices - Other   - Space Heating 

51.4 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating 

31.9 

Hotels & Restaurants - Other   - Space Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Lighting 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

30.8 

27.8 

27.0 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Water Heating 

23.5 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Other   - Space Heating 

22.9 

22.5 

21.2 

20.6 

7.83 
27.61 

2.83 

3.61 

3.66 

8.35 

3.38 

7.83 

27.03 

2.99 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

Of the top 10 programmes for energy efficiency within the commercial sector the top technical energy saving can be found in space heating 
(178.4 ktoe by 2030). None of this however is considered economic saving potential. Lighting energy end-use also presents the most 
economic energy saving potential with 77.7 ktoe by 2030. The majority of technical energy savings can be found in private and public office 
subsector with 156.3 ktoe by 2030.  

August 2020  

35 

 
 
 
Two space heating programmes from the top ten programmes by technical potential (Table A1.4) are not included in the top ten programmes 
overall (Figure A1.26). Two space heating programmes are replaced by a lighting programme and a hot water programme. All have a high 
likelihood to succeed, with a scores of 3.1-4.3, owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of 
acceptance with stakeholders based on previous measures Lighting programmes have the highest likelihood of success with a score of 4.3, 
whereas space heating programmes have the lowest likelihood of success with scores of 3.1-3.3.  

The two most cost-effective programme from the top 10 are from the Hotels and Restaurants subsector with a CCEs of 1.5-2.8 cent/kWh. 
The four least cost-effective programmes among the top ten are all from the Private and Public Offices sub-sector. Electric space heating is 
significantly more expensive than the other programmes in the subsector, with a CCE of 27.6 cent/kWh, versus 3.7-8.4 cent/kWh. 

Figure A1.26 

Top energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Austria in 2030 

August 2020  

36 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A1.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating. The top and bottom ESOs from the top 10 are focussed on space heating energy end-use. Installation of heat pumps, 
and the weather stripping of doors together present 101.4 ktoe of energy savings by 2030. This is because the current uptake was 
analysed to be 30% and 50% respectively and future uptake reaching nearly 100%.  

■  Space heating and water heating / Multiple. Four ESOs, have impacts toward both the space heating and water heating energy end-

uses. The ESOs are a combination of controls, building recommissioning and new builds. Energy savings from these ESOs total 
133.9 ktoe, of which 66.5 ktoe is from the construction of new more energy efficient buildings.  

■  Lighting. Two ESOs from the top ten can be attributed to saving energy within lighting. Both lighting measures focus on better controls 
and lead to energy savings of 37.7 ktoe within this energy end-use. This is because of the high anticipated uptake of controls within the 
sector.  

Table A1.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Austria in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

End-use category 

Space Heating 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Space Heating, Water Heating, 
Space Cooling 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

10 

Commercial Door Air Infiltration Heat 
Pump Heating 

Space Heating 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

91.0 

44.1 

40.9 

32.4 

25.6 

19.4 

19.1 

18.5 

15.6 

10.3 

30% 

54% 

74% 

26% 

74% 

26% 

26% 

26% 

74% 

50% 

97% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

93% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

August 2020  

37 

 
 
 
A1.2.3 Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A1.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on process heating and machine drives quantified as follows: 

Table A1.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Austria 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

199.1 

179.8 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

133.2 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Electricity - Machine drives 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Electricity - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

82.1 

75.0 

73.2 

72.8 

72.8 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

69.8 

Other Industry - Other   - Process Heating 

69.8 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 
0.29 
0.29 
0.28 
1.54 
0.34 
0.46 
1.64 
0.46 
0.29 
0.21 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen for the industrial sector in Table A1.6. The largest technical energy savings 
opportunities are in process heating end-uses which total 872 ktoe. 2 programmes are machine drives based, within the paper and pulp and 
other industry which present 154.9 ktoe of technical and economic energy savings.  

When compared with Figure A1.27, the top energy efficiency programmes match the top 10 technical programmes shown in Table A1.6. All 
programmes have a high likelihood of success owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political 
feasibility of implementing the energy efficiency measures as seen in Figure A1.27. Machine drives programmes have the highest likelihood 
of success with a score of 3.59, whilst process heating programmes have a score of 3.49.  

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10, is process heating (natural gas fuel based) with a CCE of 0.3 cent/kWh. By comparison 
the most expensive of the top 10 programmes save are the machine drive programmes which have an average CCE of 1.6 cent/kWh, 
however all programmes are well below their respective retail fuel tariffs.  

August 2020  

38 

 
 
 
Figure A1.27 

Top energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Austria in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A1.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process Heating. All of the top 10 ESOs, focus on process heating. The main retrofits are surrounding boiler energy consumption 

reduction by flue gas monitoring, boiler load management and correct sizing of the boiler unit as they can be applied to all fossil fuel 
based ESOs (479 ktoe). Control based measures, include advanced process and heating control in furnaces and dryers present 168 ktoe 
in energy savings. Process heating accounts for 78% – 57% of energy consumption in the industrial sector and so the high technical 
potential of cross-cutting process heating measures is justified. These measures have a particular energy saving potential within the Iron 
and Steel, Paper, pulp and print and other industry sub-sectors. 

August 2020  

39 

 
 
 
 
Table A1.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Austria in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use 
category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Dryer) 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Process Heat Recovery to Preheat Makeup Water 

Process Heating 

166.3 

106.3 

106.3 

101.9 

100.3 

87.2 

72.0 

67.0 

62.7 

59.3 

51% 

50% 

50% 

38% 

31% 

11% 

60% 

9% 

31% 

46% 

100% 

94% 

94% 

90% 

89% 

79% 

100% 

75% 

81% 

91% 

A1.2.4 Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown Table A1.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on heavy goods vehicles, private cars and light duty vehicles quantified as follows: 

Table A1.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Austria 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

526.1 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

488.1 

0.93 

8.38 

Yes 

No 

August 2020  

40 

 
 
 
Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

147.2 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

41.6 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport  14.0 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

4.6 

3.2 

0.9 

0.3 

0.2 

1.05 

4.26 

0.32 

1.01 

0.09 

1.50 

6.11 

0.08 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The top energy efficiency programmes transport sector in Austria are shown in Table A1.8. The programmes with the highest technical and 
economic energy saving potential are the programmes addressing energy efficiency in heavy goods vehicles (526.1 ktoe). Private cars hold 
significant technical energy saving potential (488.1 ktoe), however only 4.6 ktoe is evaluated to be economic. Light duty vehicles can be 
applied to both passenger and freight transport and present 148 ktoe in economic energy savings. 

The least cost-effective programme is addressing the energy savings in private cars with a CCE of 8.38 cent/kWh. Compare this with the 
most cost-effective programme for freight transport, heavy goods vehicles programme where the CCE is 0.09 cent/kWh.  

Figure A1.28 displays the top energy efficiency programmes for the transport sector in Austria, where only 5 are being displayed as the 
normalised technical potential means 5 programmes have been given a score of 0. All programmes have a high likelihood of success owing 
to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing the energy efficiency 
measures. The programme with the highest likelihood of success are two programmes passenger transport light duty vehicles and freight 
transport light duty vehicles, with a score of 3.4. The programme with the lowest score is a public road transport and private cars with a 
score of 3.3.  

August 2020  

41 

 
 
 
 
Figure A1.28 

Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Austria in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A1.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private cars. The top ESO is through the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved efficiency). The 

uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 9% and a high future uptake of 89% leading to a technical energy saving of 497.4 ktoe. All of 
the top ESOs have a low current uptake and high future uptake, owing to the technical potential of the vehicle fleet renewal rate being 
consistently high.  

■  Heavy Goods Vehicles. Five of the top 10 ESOs are Heavy Goods Vehicles based, which present technical energy savings of 522.8 

ktoe by 2030. This is as a result of a maximum future uptake for the ESOs in this end-use of 100% (owing to vehicle fleet renewal rate). 
■  Light Duty Vehicles. There are 2 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles. They present a technical saving potential 

totalling 141.4 ktoe by 2030.  

August 2020  

42 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A1.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Austria in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

Private cars 

Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

Private cars and Public 
Road Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

Light Duty Vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (15%) 

Heavy goods vehicles 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

Light Duty Vehicles 

211.6 

151.1 

138.2 

134.7 

128.2 

106.8 

85.5 

82.9 

64.1 

58.5 

9% 

9% 

10% 

9% 

10% 

10% 

10% 

14% 

10% 

14% 

89% 

89% 

100% 

89% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

August 2020  

43 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A1.3  Recommendations 

A1.3.1 Policy review 

In its draft NECP, Austria did not quantify the contribution of energy efficiency but estimated its primary energy intensity to be reduced by 25-
30% by 2030 (against a 2015 baseline). The Commission recommended that the ongoing evaluation of Energy Efficiency Act be used to 
implement energy policies and measures to contribute to the Union’s 2030 energy efficiency targets. 

Austria is targeting 31.5 Mtoe and 28.0-30.0 Mtoe primary energy consumption for 2020 and 2030 respectively. It is targeting 25.1 and 24.0-
25.0 final energy consumption for 2020 and 2030 respectively4.  

Following its submission of draft NECP, the Commission recommended Austria implement more policies and measures to achieve its 2030 
targets for buildings. The Commission pushed for further energy efficiency gains5. Austria’s Energy Efficiency Act incudes policy to 
implement the European Energy Efficiency Directive (EED). A subsidy launched in March 2019 covers photovoltaics (PV) and solar thermal 
for private households, businesses, farms and forestry companies.  

The “Out of Oil” (“Raus aus dem Öl”) programme funds the transition from oil to renewable heat in Austria and was launched in 
September 2019. Households can apply for up to EUR 5,000 of funding and the budget for the scheme is EUR 62.6 mil.  

In the transport sector, the Austrian energy consumption per car is higher than the European average (0.91 toe/car equivalent instead of 
0.73 toe/car equivalent). Electric and hydrogen cars have been exempted from the air pollution control act in the country and its hoped that 
this will encourage uptake of these vehicles.  

Austria is implementing ‘E-mobility’, the third leg of its Mission 2030, Climate and Energy strategy.  E-mobility includes subsidies for electric 
vehicles, charging infrastructure and cargo bikes for private purchase. The subsidy runs from March 2019 – December 2020. 

Electric bikes and cargo bikes are also supported through a current subsidy scheme for businesses and organisations. Austria’s 2020 
emission reduction target of 1.39 mil tonnes, set in the klimaaktiv initiative, has already been met during 2019.  

A1.3.2 Policy and measure analysis 

There are several cross-cutting measures identified in Austria for energy efficiency, the vast majority being focused on information, planning 
and education services (14). Support programmes for businesses and SME’s on how to be more energy efficient and several energy 

4 Staff Working Document 
5 Commission Staff Working Document, European Commission, Brussels, 18.6.2019 SWD(2019) 226 final  https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/at_swd_en.pdf 
[Accessed 09/12/2019] 

August 2020  

44 

 
 
 
                                                
planning measures which include spatial and transport planning form the majority of Austria’s measures. There are few economic cross-
sectoral measures, which provides an opportunity for improvement. The majority of these measures have been implemented (8).  

There are 9 energy efficiency measures focused on the buildings sector in Austria’s draft NECP. Over half of the measures have a 
regulatory (3) and economic focus (3) measures, with one of each being already implemented. The planned measures are mainly economic 
and regulatory based which indicate that this will be a targeted area for energy efficiency within Austria’s NECP. This includes Austria’s 
building heating strategy for 2040 and providing financial support for package measures on building renovation. There is strong coverage of 
policy within the Austrian building sector. 

Austria’s draft NECP includes measures for public building energy efficiency through procurement and tendering of public contracts. There is 
an energy saving obligation for federal buildings as the public sector aims to become exemplars of energy efficiency.   

There are limited measures which address industrial energy efficiency, the main measure being tackling industrial and commercial waste 
heat. This has not been implemented but is in planning phase of development but demonstrates a clear gap which is being addressed.  

The transport sector has 7 specific measures for energy efficiency of which 5 are already implemented. Those measures focus on modal 
shift of passenger transport and freight transport to low carbon alternatives such as cycling, public transport or rail. These measures 
however are planning or “other” in description and so no economic or regulation measures are described. The only non-implemented 
measure for the transport sector, is the upgrade of public transportation to encourage further modal shifts. 

From the policies implemented with and before NEEAP 3, Austria’s energy efficiency measures were adjudged to have a high impact, owing 
to the amount of energy savings and applicants to the measures. However, the financial measures implemented have very little financial 
independence, and therefore were not considered as being stable programmes. 

A1.3.3 Recommendations 

The top 10 programmes for Austria by technical energy savings are shown in Table A1.10. The corresponding top ESOs are presented in 
Table A1.11. The top two energy saving programmes are from the transport sector, focussing on heavy goods vehicles and private cars. 
These two programmes have the largest energy saving potential by some margin when compared against the next programme in the 
residential sector space heating as the difference is over 200 ktoe. The programme to reduce energy consumption in private cars is 
evaluated as being uneconomic. Existing and planned measures in Austria’s NECP focus on modal shifts and electrification measures. 
These measures could be improved to cover ESOs related to improved vehicle energy efficiency to address additional saving potentials as 
seen in Table A1.9.  

The third /programme with the most technical/economic potential is focussed on saving energy from space heating in single family homes. 
This incorporates measures such as building new net-zero homes. The current policies employed by Austria such as “Heating Strategy to 
phase out fossil fuels for heating by 2040” and “Packages of measures for the energy renovation of Buildings” look to address this category 

August 2020  

45 

 
 
 
directly and provide adequate coverage to access the technical potentials as calculated by the tool. Austria’s heating strategy also directly 
covers the programme scope for residential water heating.  

Ranked number 5 in Table A1.10  is energy efficiency in the iron and steel industry, as this has the potential to save 207.5 ktoe by 2030. 
There is only one cross cutting measure focussing on developing uses for waste heat for Austrian Industrial sector. This is a planning 
measure and therefore shows a clear area for intervention in economic or legislative action.  

Table A1.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Austria 

Country rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cent/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles  526.1 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Industrial 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Industrial 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Residential 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

488.1 

279.4 

207.5 

199.1 

179.8 

171.0 

147.4 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles  147.2 

10 

Residential 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

135.4 

0.93 

8.38 

4.95 

12.37 

0.29 

0.29 

4.94 

4.95 

1.05 

12.26 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Table A1.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Austria by 2030 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

211.6 

Residential 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, 
Space heating 

189.4 

9% 

10% 

89% 

89% 

Country 
rank 

1 

2 

August 2020  

46 

 
 
 
 
Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Country 
rank 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Sector 

Industrial 

Transport 

Transport 

Transport 

Transport 

Transport 

Industrial 

Industrial 

ESO 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Energy end-use 

Process Heating 

Improved vehicle efficiency (4%) 

 Private cars 

166.3 

151.1 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  138.2 

Improved vehicle efficiency (3%) 

 Private cars, Public 
road transport 

134.7 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  128.2 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  106.8 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

106.3 

106.3 

51% 

9% 

10% 

9% 

10% 

10% 

50% 

50% 

57% 

100% 

89% 

100% 

89% 

100% 

100% 

94% 

To fulfil its 2030 energy efficiency target Austria should: 

1. Refine policy measures for transport sector focussing on improved vehicle performance in private cars and HDVs 

2. Increase the ambition of policies focussing on the renovation of the building sector and building of net zero ready buildings. 

3. Ensure sufficient focus on the reduction of waste heat in industrial sectors, with particular attention on Iron and Steel sub-sector 

August 2020  

47 

 
 
 
 
Annex 2  Belgium  

A2.1  Summary 

Table A2.1 

Summary of modelling results for Belgium 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

8,119 

4,652 

12,883 

8,860 

34,514 

 2,256  

 1,020  

 3,135  

 1,191  

 7,602  

 1,396  

 679  

 3,006  

 1,191  

 6,272  

28% 

22% 

24% 

13% 

22% 

17% 

15% 

23% 

13% 

18% 

2,903 

August 2020  

48 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A2.1.2 Residential 

Figure A2.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (1247.0 ktoe) 
and hot water heating (921.2 ktoe).   

Figure A2.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

49 

 
 
 
 
Figure A2.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 1918.9 ktoe. 

Figure A2.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on residential sub-sector 

August 2020  

50 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Space 
heating and hot water heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
space heating (1237.7 ktoe) and hot water heating (70.5 ktoe). 

Figure A2.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

51 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 1178.6 ktoe. 

Figure A2.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

52 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 5862.7 ktoe (28% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 6722.7 ktoe (17% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 8118.9 ktoe. 

Figure A2.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Belgium 

August 2020  

53 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Belgium ’s final energy consumption by 2256.2 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A2.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (48.1%), RPP (31.8%) and 
electricity (19.6%) contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A2.6 

Primary energy impacts for Belgium based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

54 

 
 
 
 
 
A2.1.3 Commercial  

Figure A2.8 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating and lighting 
contain the highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating 
(590.3 ktoe) and lighting (272.7 ktoe).   

Figure A2.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

55 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Private and public 
offices and wholesale and retail trade contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, private and public offices have a potential 
savings of 366.3 ktoe and wholesale and retail have potential energy savings of 341.7 ktoe. 

Figure A2.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

56 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Space heating and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
lighting (272.7 ktoe) and space heating (263.6 ktoe).  

Figure A2.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

57 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of wholesale and retail trade are 306.2 ktoe, 
followed by private and public office (158.6 ktoe). 

Figure A2.10 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

58 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical energy 
consumption scenario is 3632.6 ktoe (22% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 3973.1 ktoe (15% energy saving 
against BAU), and actual BAU is 4652.2 ktoe. 

Figure A2.11 

Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Belgium 

August 2020  

59 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Belgium ’s final energy consumption by 1019.5 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A2.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (67.37%), natural gas (22.50%) 
and RPP (9.06%) sector contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A2.12 

Primary energy impacts for Belgium based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

60 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A2.1.4 Industrial 

Figure A2.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (2222 ktoe) 
and machine drives (466 ktoe).   

Figure A2.13 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

61 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Chemicals and 
petrochemicals contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, chemicals and petrochemicals have a potential savings of 949 ktoe 
and iron and steel have potential energy savings of 527 ktoe. 

Figure A2.14 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

62 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (2222 ktoe) and machine drives (466 ktoe).   

Figure A2.15 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

63 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Chemicals and 
petrochemicals contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of chemicals and petrochemicals are 886 
ktoe, followed by iron and steel 497 ktoe. 

Figure A2.16 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

64 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 9747.4 ktoe (24% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 9876.7 ktoe (23% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 12882.8 ktoe. 

Figure A2.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Belgium 

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Belgium ’s final energy consumption by 3135.4 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

65 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (28%), electricity (56%), RPP 
(10%) sectors contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A2.18 

Primary energy impacts for Belgium based on technical potential for industrial sector 

A2.1.5 Transport  

Figure A2.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Heavy goods vehicles and 
private cars contain the highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are private 
cars (697 ktoe) and heavy goods vehicles (338 ktoe).   

August 2020  

66 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.19 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

67 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport and freight transport have fairly even potential savings over time. In 2030, passport transport has a potential savings of 821 ktoe 
and freight transport has potential energy savings of 370 ktoe. 

Figure A2.20 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

68 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Private cars and heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time after 2028. In 2030, the two highest potential economic 
savings by end use are private cars (670 ktoe) and heavy goods vehicles (338 ktoe).   

Figure A2.21 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A2.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport and freight transport have fairly even potential savings over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of passenger 
transport (821 ktoe), followed by freight transport (370 ktoe).  

August 2020  

69 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.22 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Belgium based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

70 

 
 
 
 
Figure A2.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 7669 ktoe (13% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 7669 ktoe (13% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 8860.2 ktoe. 

Figure A2.23 

Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Belgium

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Belgium ’s final energy consumption by 1191.3 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A2.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (91.01%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

71 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A2.24 

Primary energy impacts for Belgium based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

72 

 
 
 
 
 
A2.2  Discussion 

A2.2.1 Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A2.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating, and hot water heating quantified as follows: 

Table A2.2 

Top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Belgium 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

621.8 

421.8 

375.0 

310.7 

115.9 

81.2 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  71.0 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Lighting 

60.1 

47.2 

45.5 

3.51 

8.76 

3.50 

8.62 

3.48 

3.45 

10.86 

5.51 

10.75 

0.52 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

The top energy savings can be found from space heating programmes as they present economic savings of 1194.0 ktoe by 2030. Hot water 
energy programmes contribute 910.8 ktoe in technical energy savings by 2030. Of the top 10 programmes shown in Table A2.2 1299.6 ktoe 
is defined as economic. Programmes for single family homes make up 6 out of the top 10 energy efficiency programmes and account for 
1835.0 ktoe of technical energy savings by 2030 (85% of energy savings from top 10 programmes by technical energy efficiency).  

August 2020  

73 

 
 
 
 
The top energy efficiency programmes (Figure A2.25) all have moderate-to-high likelihoods to succeed owing to the low complexity of the 
ESOs made up within the programme and a high ease of acceptance with stakeholders based on previous measures (scores 2.8 – 4.0). The 
programmes shown in Figure A2.25 correspond directly with the programmes listed in Table A2.2, with eight of ten accounted for. The 
average likelihood of success for space heating programmes and hot water heating programmes is 2.9.  

Hot water heating measures are more expensive to implement than space heating measures with an average CCE of 8.69 cent/kWh. The 
most expensive of the top programmes is single family houses natural gas hot water heating with a CCE of 8.76 cent/kWh to implement. 
Comparing this with the largest technical potential programme space heating in single family houses which has a CCE of 3.50 cent/kWh, it is 
clear that the space heating programmes have a clear economic advantage over the hot water heating-based programmes. This is reflected 
in Table A2.2 where the majority of hot water heating programmes are evaluated to not be economic.  

Figure A2.25 

Top energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Belgium in 2030 

August 2020  

74 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A2.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating & Hot water heating. Construction of Net-Zero-Ready Homes directly addresses energy savings in both space heating 

and hot water heating, with a technical potential of 369.8 ktoe by 2030. Three hot water heating ESOs present a technical saving 
potential totalling 396.5. The current uptake of such systems varies from ESO to ESO, with net-zero and energy efficient homes having 
the lowest uptake and wastewater heat recovery systems having the highest. There is 1 specific ESO which focuses on space heating 
energy end-use: thermal curtains present 153.5 ktoe technical energy savings by 2030. 

■  Multiple end-use.  Energy-efficient homes (20% above code) are design ESOs related to multiple energy end use (space heating, hot 

water heating and cooling) with a technical saving potential totalling 160.1 ktoe by 2030 owing to the very low current uptake of the ESO 
(7%).  

Space heating and cooling. 3 ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within space heating and space cooling. These 

measures focus on the improvement of building envelopment performance, with wall insulation having the highest technical potential. In 
total the technical energy saving potential for ESOs within these end-uses is 389.3 ktoe.  

Table A2.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Belgium in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code)  Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Thermal Curtains 

Wall Insulation 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash 

Air Infiltration 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

10 

High Efficiency Clothes Washer 

Hot water heating 
Space heating 
Space heating, Cooling 
Hot water heating 
Space heating, Cooling 
Space heating, Cooling 
Hot water heating 
Appliances, Hot water heating 

369.8 

160.1 

159.0 

153.5 

141.6 

133.4 

129.9 

117.9 

104.1 

80.9 

7% 

7% 

10% 

15% 

24% 

19% 

24% 

24% 

80% 

19% 

55% 

47% 

100% 

55% 

57% 

100% 

66% 

57% 

100% 

90% 

August 2020  

75 

 
 
 
A2.2.2 Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A2.4. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on lighting and space heating as follows: 

Table A2.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Belgium 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

167.8 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

145.7 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - RPP - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - RPP - Space Heating 

Health - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Space Heating 

76.6 

60.8 

54.0 

51.2 

44.5 

34.3 

27.2 

24.2 

2.82 

5.89 

2.29 

5.89 

20.37 

3.04 

4.32 

2.29 

2.39 

20.37 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

The top 10 programmes present 686.2 ktoe in technical energy savings. Of the top 10 programmes by technical energy saving potential 
within the commercial sector the top economic energy saving programme can be found in lighting energy end-use (218.9 ktoe by 2030). 
Space heating programmes form the remaining 8 programmes within Table A2.4, and present technical energy savings of 467.3 ktoe by 
2030 (68.1% of top 10 programmes). Only 199 ktoe however is calculated to be economic (42.6% of 467.3 ktoe).  

August 2020  

76 

 
 
 
The top 10 programmes within the commercial sector are shown in Figure A2.26. All have a high likelihood to succeed (score 3.1-4.3 out of 
5) owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of acceptance with stakeholders based on 
previous measures. Compare to the top technical potential programmes shown in Table A2.4, there are five fewer space heating programme 
(now showing three), being replaced with three lighting programmes, as well as one in cooking and one in IT and multimedia. The IT and 
Multimedia, cooking and lighting programmes have the highest likelihood of success with scores of 4.3, whereas space heating programmes 
have the lowest likelihood of success among the top ten with an average score of 3.1-3.3 of the top 10.  

The most cost-effective programme from the top 10, by a significant proportion, is natural gas cooking in hotels and restaurants, with a CCE 
of only 0.3 cent/kWh. This is followed by a range of space heating and lighting programmes which have CCEs ranging from 2.3 cent/kWh to 
5.9 cent/kWh. The least cost-effective programme among the top ten is IT & multimedia in private and public offices, having a CCE of 12.2 
cent/kWh. 

Figure A2.26 

Top technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Belgium in 2030 

August 2020  

77 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A2.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating. The top ESO from the top 10 is focussed on space heating energy end-use. Installation of heat pumps present 

179.3 ktoe of energy savings by 2030. This is because the current uptake was analysed to be 0% with a high future uptake of 67% by 
2030. 

■  Space heating and water heating / Multiple. Four ESOs, have impacts toward both the space heating and water heating energy 

end-uses. The ESOs are a combination of controls, building recommissioning and new builds (20% and 40% more efficient). Energy 
savings from these ESOs total 328.5 ktoe of which 126.8 ktoe is from the construction of new more energy efficient buildings. 
Controls-based measures including adaptive thermostats and advanced BAS save 97.2 ktoe by 2030.  

■  Lighting. Four ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within lighting. Both lighting measures focus on better controls 

and improved lighting efficiency leading to energy savings of 162.7 ktoe within this energy end-use. This is because of the high 
anticipated uptake of controls within the sector.  

Table A2.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Belgium in 2030 

Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current 
uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps 

Space Heating 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space heating and hot water heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space heating and hot water heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space heating and hot water heating 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting 

Lighting 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space heating and hot water heating 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W (Against 
250W baseline) 

10 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W (Against 
200W baseline) 

August 2020  

Multiple 

Lighting 

Lighting 

209.6 

122.3 

91.2 

76.4 

66.6 

63.3 

57.0 

37.2 

31.3 

29.0 

0% 

2% 

2% 

5% 

5% 

5% 

2% 

5% 

63% 

67% 

100% 

35% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

35% 

72% 

100% 

63% 

100% 

78 

 
 
 
A2.2.3 Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A2.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within process heating and machine drives programmes as follows: 

Table A2.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Belgium 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - 
Process Heating 

302.8 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

215.4 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Electricity - 
Machine drives 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

152.4 

147.4 

141.5 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

139.8 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - RPP - Process 
Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Electricity - 
Process Heating 

106.9 

105.9 

97.0 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Machine drives 

79.5 

0.23 

0.23 

0.20 

1.24 

0.28 

0.23 

0.23 

0.23 

0.37 

1.20 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The total energy savings from the top 10 programmes are 1488.6 ktoe by 2030, of which all of the programmes shown in Table A2.6 are 
considered economic energy savings. Process heating-based programmes present 1261.1 ktoe of energy savings (85%), as they make up 8 
of the top 10 programmes. There are 2 machines drives based programmes in Table A2.6, which present economic energy savings of 227 
ktoe by 2030.  Energy saving programmes in chemicals and petrochemicals sub-sector account for 4 of the top 10 programmes and present 
economic energy savings of 654.1 ktoe by 2030, the largest of any sub-sector.  

August 2020  

79 

 
 
 
All programmes have a high likelihood of success owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political 
feasibility of implementing the energy efficiency measures as seen in Figure A2.27. Machine drives programmes have the highest likelihood 
of success with a score of 4.59, whilst process heating programmes have an average score 4.48. 

Finally, the most cost-effective programmes of the top 10 are those process heating saving natural gas-based programmes with an average 
CCE of 0.25 cent/kWh. By comparison the most expensive process heating programmes of the top 10 programmes save are those saving 
electricity which have an average CCE of 0.4 cent/kWh, however all programmes are well below their respective retail fuel tariffs by some 
margin.  Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Machine drives programmes have the largest CCE of 1.24 cent/kWh of the top energy efficiency 
programmes.  

Figure A2.27 

Top energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Belgium in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A2.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

August 2020  

80 

 
 
 
 
■  Process Heating. All of the top 10 ESOs, focus on process heating. The main retrofits are the reduction in boiler and furnace energy 

consumption reduction by flue gas monitoring, boiler load management and correct sizing of the boiler unit as they can be applied to all 
fossil fuel based ESOs (648.6 ktoe). Control and maintenance-based measures, include advanced process and heating control in 
furnaces present 297.2 ktoe in energy savings. 

Table A2.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Belgium in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Boiler right sizing 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

Process Heat Recovery to Preheat Makeup Water 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner 

Process Heating 

209.7 

188.3 

153.6 

142.7 

142.7 

126.5 

112.4 

108.9 

79.9 

78.8 

51% 

38% 

31% 

50% 

50% 

31% 

11% 

60% 

45% 

40% 

100% 

89% 

89% 

94% 

94% 

80% 

79% 

100% 

91% 

90% 

A2.2.4 Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A2.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on private cars, heavy goods vehicles and light duty vehicles quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

81 

 
 
 
 
Table A2.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport Sector in Belgium 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

690.9 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

332.6 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

84.1 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport  39.4 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

32.0 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

5.8 

5.1 

0.7 

0.4 

0.3 

6.66 

1.11 

2.11 

0.16 

6.05 

0.90 

0.12 

3.40 

0.04 

9.77 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The top energy efficiency programmes transport sector in Belgium are shown in Table A2.8. The programmes with the highest technical and 
economic energy saving potential are the programmes addressing energy efficiency in private cars (690.9 ktoe). Private cars programmes 
account for 58.4% of the total technical potential from the top 10 programmes (1191.3 ktoe). The programmes involving heavy goods 
vehicles programme present 332.6 ktoe in economic energy savings (28.3% of total). Light duty vehicles can be applied to both passenger 
and freight transport and as such have the most programmes in the top 10 (4) and present 117.1 ktoe in economic energy savings. 

Figure A2.28 displays the top energy efficiency programmes for the transport sector in Belgium, where only 5 are being displayed as the 
normalised technical potential means 5 programmes have been given a score of 0. All programmes have a high likelihood of success owing 
to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing the energy efficiency 
measures. The programme with the highest likelihood of success is freight transport heavy goods vehicles with a score of 3.7. The 
programmes with the lowest scores are passenger transport private cars and public road transport with a score of 3.50. 

The least cost-effective programme is addressing the energy savings in private cars with a CCE of 6.7 cent/kWh. Compare this with the most 
cost-effective programme for public road transport where the CCE is 0.16 cent/kWh.  

August 2020  

82 

 
 
 
Figure A2.28 

Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Belgium in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A2.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private cars. The top 3 ESOs are the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved efficiency). The 

uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 11% and a high future uptake of 100% leading to a technical energy saving of 724.1 ktoe. All 
of the top ESOs have a low current uptake and high future uptake, owing to the technical potential of the vehicle fleet renewal rate being 
consistently high.  

■  Heavy Goods Vehicles. 5 of the top 10 ESOs are Heavy Goods Vehicles based, which present technical energy savings of 327.5 ktoe 

by 2030. This is as a result of a maximum future uptake for the ESOs in this end-use of 40% (owing to vehicle fleet renewal rate). 

■  Light Duty Vehicles. There are 2 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles. They present a technical saving potential 

totalling 86.8 ktoe by 2030.  

August 2020  

83 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A2.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Belgium in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

Energy End-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

299.7 

214.1 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

 Private cars and 
public road transport  210.3 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  86.6 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  80.3 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  66.9 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  53.5 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

50.9 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (15%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  40.2 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

35.9 

11% 

11% 

11% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

7% 

4% 

7% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

40% 

40% 

40% 

40% 

70% 

40% 

70% 

A2.3  Recommendations 

A2.3.1 Policy Review 

The Commission recommended that Belgium increase its ambition when considering its energy efficiency targets. Belgium’s national 
contribution for energy efficiency is targeted at 39 Mtoe primary energy 26.2 Mtoe in final energy consumption by 2030. The Commission 
recommended a robust, long-term building renovation strategy be established to increase the efficiency of current building stock. 

Belgium’s target for renewable energy is 18.3% by 2030. The Commission recommended that this be raised to 25% in line with Annex II 
of the Governance Regulation.  

August 2020  

84 

 
 
 
Industrial energy consumption has increased in Belgium by nearly 5% from 2005 to 2018. This is in contrast to an overall EU reduction in 
industry consumption by 15%. From 2016 to 2017, Belgium’s final energy consumption for industry increased by 3%6. 

The Walloon Renovation Strategy for buildings is set to be revised by April 2020 following a consultation with sectors. This revision aims 
to align the strategy with 2030 climate objectives. Wallonia is targeting a carbon neutral building stock by 2050 and has set a 2030 
intermediate target. As part of the renovation strategy the government is targeting stricter of buildings’ performance regulations and is 
investing in buildings’ insulation and renewable energy.  

The Solarclick7 and NRclick8 programmes were established in 2017 to increase energy efficiency and renewable energy in regional and 
municipal buildings. This will be evaluated and improved. 

In 2023 in Flanders, the current voluntary energy policy agreements scheme (EBO)9 will be evaluated. The EBO will be expanded to new 
sectors and include mobility, residual heat and water. Energy-intensive industrial with annual primary energy consumption of at least 0.1 
PJ will be required to develop an energy policy every four years. 

The Climate Fund will continue to support low carbon initiatives in Brussels.  

The Brussel Capital Region renovation strategy prioritises the renovation of buildings and plans to increase the budget for energy 
efficiency upgrades to achieve a 3-5% annual renovation rate. The Flemish government have not yet announced the budget for housing 
and the breakdown of allocation, neither has the Walloon Region.  

A2.3.2 Policy and measure analysis 

Of the 12 measures reviewed with NEEAPs 1,2 and 3, energy efficiency measures incorporated by Belgium were evaluated to be 
suitable in overcoming barriers for energy efficiency, and persistent in delivering energy efficiency savings over a long time. The most 
notable trait of energy efficiency measures included was the previous experience Belgium has in implementing measures and evaluating 
their effectiveness. 9 of the 16 energy efficiency measures implemented by Belgium however are not cost-effective to implement as they 
have a significant administrative burden. 7 financial measures have unstable funding sources which means they do not have budget 
independence. 

6   REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL, European Commission, COM(2019) 224 final, 9.4.2019, Brussels 
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/report-2018-assessment-progress-energy-efficiency-targets-april2019_en.pdf [Accessed 
09/12/2019] 
7 https://solarclick.be/ 
8 https://nrclick.be/ 
9 Energy intensive companies with a total annual primary energy consumption of at least 0.1 PJ are encouraged to further reduce their energy consumption by signing the energy 
policy agreement (EBO) with the Government of Flanders. 

August 2020  

85 

 
 
 
                                                
95 energy efficiency measures were listed within Belgium’s draft NECP which are separated into the three regions. 60 of which are 
specific to residential buildings, which are estimated to save 11,992 GWh by 2030. The most effective measure being the reduction in gift 
tax for properties which undergo energy saving renovations which has predicted energy savings of 4,900 GWh by 2030. The next most 
effective energy saving measure is the replacement of non-compliant boilers upon inspection, with energy efficient one’s legislation which 
is expected to save 2610 GWh by 2030. Of the 60 measures relevant for the residential sector, 6 can be categorised as fiscal based 
measures and 11 as legislative policies. The majority of measures are not classified but are mainly information and 
monitoring/verification processes. 

There are 10 measures listed specifically for the tertiary sector, all of which are planned and comprise of 4 regulatory measures. An 
equal number of measures can be considered as cross-cutting across buildings (10), with one fiscal and one regulatory measure. The 
majority of measures are planned to be implemented for buildings 14 out of 20. 

By comparison there are only 6 measures directly targeting industry, such as subsidised energy advice to SME and voluntary policy 
agreements with energy intensive industry. Directly targeted for regulation and economic intervention is energy efficiency in non-ETS 
sectors and ecological support. All 6 measures are already implemented within the industrial sector.  

The transport sector has only 2 planned measures for energy efficiency, “plan good move” and “taxation of company cars”. The two 
measures are classified as planning and fiscal measures respectively. The lack of measures in regulation is a clear area for improvement 
for Belgium.  

A2.3.3 Policy Recommendations 

In the revision of the Walloon region’s renovation strategy, Belgium should consider policies that target space heating in single family 
houses. Heating has the second largest amount of technical and economic potential and single-family homes have the largest economic 
potential. Energy efficiency measures and policies for single family houses have large potential compared to multifamily apartments, 
where energy consumption may be less due to economies of scale and the suitability of a choice of low carbon heat sources such as 
cogeneration.  

Belgium should implement policy and measures in space heating to increase its energy efficiency and renovate building stock in line with 
the Commission’s recommendations. Another form of heating, hot water, also holds large techno-economic potential for the residential 
sector. Belgium should consider targeting single family homes rather than multi-family apartments as these typically present larger 
opportunities for energy efficiency due to economies of scale and communal living better traditionally better suiting low carbon heating 
initiatives e.g. low carbon heat networks. Single family houses and space heating provided by natural gas is the programme with the 
highest technical potential for Belgium, and it is cost effective. 

In the commercial sector, lighting presents the largest technical potential programme and should be considered as part of the long-term 
building renovation strategy recommended by the Commission. 179.3 ktoe of technical potential could be applied by using electric air 

August 2020  

86 

 
 
 
source cold-climate heat pumps, which is shown in Table A2.10 to be the 7th top energy saving opportunity for Belgium in 2030. For 
economic potential, lighting should be exploited as it shows large potential, particularly in the whole sale and retail trade sub-sectors.  

For the industrial sector, process heating has the largest economic and technical potential of all end uses. Heating remains a large 
opportunity for energy efficiency and process heating should not be overlooked amidst buildings’ heating. The chemicals and 
petrochemicals sub-sector were shown to hold 955 ktoe of technical potential by 2030. Therefore, policies surrounding the greatest 
opportunities for energy efficiency e.g. process heating, should target the chemical and petrochemical sector. 

Table A2.10 

Top 10 ESOs for Belgium by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Energy end-use 

Hot water heating, 
Space heating 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (4%) 

 Private cars 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (3%) 

 Private cars,  Public 
road transport 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

369.8 

299.7 

214.1 

210.3 

209.7 

Industrial 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Furnace) 

Process Heating 

188.3 

Commercial 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Residential 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code) 

Space Heating 

179.3 

Space heating, Hot 
water heating, Cooling  160.1 

Residential 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

159.0 

10 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

153.6 

August 2020  

7% 

11% 

11% 

11% 

51% 

38% 

0% 

7% 

10% 

31% 

55% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

67% 

89% 

47% 

87 

 
 
 
Table A2.11 

Top 10 Programmes for Belgium by 2030 

Country rank  Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

690.9 

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

621.8 

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  421.8 

Residential 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

375.0 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods 
vehicles 

332.6 

Residential 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

310.7 

Industrial 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

Industrial 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

302.8 

215.4 

Commercial 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

167.8 

10 

Industrial 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

152.4 

6.66 

3.51 

8.76 

3.50 

1.11 

8.62 

0.23 

0.23 

2.82 

0.20 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

A large quantity (690.9 ktoe) of technical potential in the transport sector can be attributed to private cars from 2030. Private cars’ 
technical potential appears to increase dramatically in 2029 from previous years in Figure A2.22. 2029 is when this programme becomes 

August 2020  

88 

 
 
 
 
 
economically viable and therefore technical potential only shows from this point. Table A2.10 shows that improving the efficiencies of 
private cars by 5% could save 299.7 ktoe by 2030, from a current uptake of just 11%. Even improving the efficiency of private cars by just 
3% could incite 210 ktoe of energy savings by 2030.   

Heavy goods vehicles are another area that Belgium could target. Its technical potential increases as the years progress towards 2030. 
Both the potential to exploit energy efficiency opportunities in private cars and heavy goods vehicles is assured by the sub-sectors 
‘passenger transport’ and ‘freight transport’ growing in techno-economic potential out towards 2050. Belgium should consider measures 
concerning these sub-sectors to make their energy consumption contribution more ambitious and therefore respond to the call of the 
Commission and contribute to the Union’s 2030 target. 

To fulfil its 2030 energy efficiency target Belgium should: 

1.  Implement minimum standards policy to increase the efficiency of private vehicles running on gasoline/diesel 

2.  Implement a net-zero ready home policy for new builds 

3.  Incentivise energy efficiency products for the renovation of existing housing stock e.g. low-flow shower heads 

August 2020  

89 

 
 
 
 
Annex 3  Bulgaria 

A3.1  Summary 

Table A3.1 

Summary of modelling results for Bulgaria 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

2,313 

1,292 

3,146 

2,631 

9,382 

 422  

 331  

 765  

 384  

 114  

 117  

 737  

 101  

 1,903  

 1,068  

18% 

26% 

24% 

15% 

20% 

5% 

9% 

23% 

4% 

11% 

839 

August 2020  

90 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A3.1.2 Residential  

Figure A3.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating contains the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating (218 ktoe) and space heating 
(103.4 ktoe).   

Figure A3.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

91 

 
 
 
 
Figure A3.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses and 
multi-family apartments contain a fairly even split in potential savings over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings 
of (227.2 ktoe) and multi-family apartments offer (194.9 ktoe). 

Figure A3.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

92 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A3.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Hot 
water heating contains the highest potential over time after 2034. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are lighting 
(59.2 ktoe) and appliances (20.7 ktoe). 

Figure A3.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

93 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A3.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 83.5 ktoe. 

Figure A3.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

94 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A3.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1890.9 ktoe (18% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 2199.4 ktoe (5% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 2312.9 ktoe. 

Figure A3.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Bulgaria 

August 2020  

95 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Bulgaria ’s final energy consumption by 422.1 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A3.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to each subsector. Electricity (80.3%), other (8.89%) and coal 
(3.56%) fuels contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A3.6 

Primary energy impacts for Bulgaria based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

96 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A3.1.3 Commercial 

Figure A3.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating and water heating 
contain the highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are water heating 
(133.8 ktoe) and space heating (101.1 ktoe).   

Figure A3.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

97 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A3.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Private and public 
offices contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, private and public offices have a potential savings of 158.6 ktoe and 
wholesale and retail have potential energy savings of 71 ktoe. 

Figure A3.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

98 

 
 
 
 
Figure A3.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Water heating and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
lighting (64 ktoe) and water heating (28.7 ktoe)  

Figure A3.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

99 

 
 
 
 
Figure A3.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Private and public 
offices trade contain the highest potential over time after 2040. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of private and public office are 
38.8 ktoe, followed by wholesale and retail trade are 31.3 ktoe. 

Figure A3.10 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

100 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A3.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical energy 
consumption scenario is 960.4 ktoe (26% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1174.9 ktoe (9 energy saving 
against BAU), and actual BAU is 1291.7 ktoe. 

Figure A3.11 

Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Bulgaria 

August 2020  

101 

 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Bulgaria ’s final energy consumption by 331.2 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A3.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (89.4%), other (4.74%) and 
natural gas (4.30%) sector contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A3.12 

Primary energy impacts for Bulgaria based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

102 

 
 
 
 
A3.1.4 Industrial  

Figure A3.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (556 ktoe) and 
machine drives (110 ktoe).   

Figure A3.13 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

103 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A3.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Chemicals and 
petrochemicals contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, chemicals and petrochemicals have a potential savings of 197 ktoe 
and other industry has potential energy savings of 119 ktoe. 

Figure A3.14 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

104 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A3.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (556 ktoe) and machine drives (110 ktoe).   

Figure A3.15 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A3.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Chemicals and 
petrochemicals contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of chemicals and petrochemicals are 184 
ktoe, followed by other industry (118 ktoe). 

August 2020  

105 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A3.16 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on industrial sub-sectors 

Figure A3.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 2380.6 ktoe (24% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 2408.9 ktoe (23% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 3145.7 ktoe. 

August 2020  

106 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A3.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Bulgaria 

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Bulgaria ’s final energy consumption by 765.0 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

107 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A3.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (25%), electricity (56%), RPP 
(8%) sectors contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A3.18 

Primary energy impacts for Bulgaria based on technical potential for industrial sector 

August 2020  

108 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A3.1.5 Transport   

Figure A3.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the highest 
potential energy savings over time, followed by heavy goods vehicles. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are 
private cars (240 ktoe) and heavy goods vehicles (60 ktoe).   

Figure A3.19 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

109 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A3.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passport transport has a potential savings of 314 ktoe and freight 
transport has potential energy savings of 70 ktoe. 

Figure A3.20 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

110 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A3.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are heavy 
good vehicles (61 ktoe) and public road transport (38 ktoe).   

Figure A3.21 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A3.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Freight transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of passenger transport (40 ktoe), followed by freight 
transport (61 ktoe). 

August 2020  

111 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A3.22 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Bulgaria based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A3.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 2238.0 ktoe (15% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 2519.4 ktoe (5% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 2631.3 ktoe. 

August 2020  

112 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A3.23 

Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Bulgaria 

August 2020  

113 

 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Bulgaria’s final energy consumption by 136.95 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A3.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (92.93%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

Figure A3.24 

Primary energy impacts for Bulgaria based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

114 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A3.2  Discussion 

A3.2.1 Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A3.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on hot water heating, lighting, space heating and appliances quantified as follows: 

Table A3.2 

Top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Bulgaria 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Lighting 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Lighting 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Appliances 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Appliances 

Single family houses - Electricity - Space heating 

77.4 

67.3 

31.7 

27.5 

23.0 

20.7 

20.0 

16.8 

15.9 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  15.8 

15.96 

21.85 

1.52 

1.08 

5.43 

5.56 

5.38 

19.57 

8.94 

28.35 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

The total energy savings from the top 10 energy efficiency programmes present 316 ktoe by 2030. Hot water heating programmes can 
provide 160.5 ktoe in technical energy saving potential (50.7% of top 10 programmes), but this is not evaluated as economic potential. Of the 
top 10 only 2 programmes are directed at lighting energy efficiency, and this accounts for 59.2 ktoe by 2030. Unlike hot water heating 
programmes, lighting programmes are considered as economic. The next largest energy saving potential is in space heating, with 59 ktoe by 

August 2020  

115 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2030 (19% of top 10 programmes). 37.5 ktoe by 2030 can be saved through appliance-based energy end-use of which 55% is evaluated as 
economic energy savings.  

August 2020  

116 

 
 
 
The top energy efficiency programmes (Figure A3.25) have ranging likelihoods of success. The programmes shown in Figure A3.25 
correspond directly with seven of the ten programmes listed in Table A3.2. The average likelihood of success for space heating programmes 
and hot water heating programmes is 3.2. The programme most likely to succeed is the lighting programme for multi-family homes and 
single-family houses with a score of 4.2. The programme for multi and single-family space heating is least likely to succeed with a score of 
3.0.  

Hot water heating measures are more expensive to implement than space heating measures with a max CCE of 21.85 cent/kWh in 
multifamily homes. This is not considered economic as shown in Table A3.2. Comparing this with the multi-family apartment lighting energy 
efficiency programme with a CCE of 1.08 cent/kWh, it is that clear lighting programmes are more economic to implement. This is reflected in 
Table A3.2 where the majority of hot water heating programmes are evaluated to not be economic. Space heating programmes have an 
average CCE of 5.4 cent/kWh.  

Figure A3.25 

Top technical energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Bulgaria in 2030 

August 2020  

117 

 
 
 
 
Table A3.3 shows the top ESOs for the sector. These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Hot water heating. 5 of the top 10 ESOs comprise of hot water-based energy end-uses. The ESOs are split between on replacing water 
heater equipment and reducing the required amount of water heating. Heat pumps, solar water heaters and more efficient equipment 
offer 106.8 ktoe of technical energy savings, while use of low-flow shower heads and recovery of waste heat offer 75.1 ktoe for a total of 
181.9 ktoe for water heating as an end use. All have a very low current uptake and result in large energy savings for Bulgaria’s 
residential sector.  

■  Lighting.  Lighting energy efficiency ESOs is number 2 on the list and contributes 43.2 ktoe in energy savings. 
■  Space heating and cooling. 4 ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within space heating and space cooling. These 
measures focus on the improvement of building envelopment performance, with wall insulation having the highest technical potential. In 
total the technical energy saving potential for ESOs within these end-uses is 60.1 ktoe.  

Table A3.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Bulgaria in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Residential Lighting Efficiency from 
Incand. 

Heat Pump Water Heater  

Water Heater Replacement 

Wastewater Heat Recovery 
Systems 

Active Solar Water Heating 
Systems 

Air Infiltration 

Thermal Curtains 

Wall Insulation 

10 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

End-use category 

Hot water heating 
Lighting 

Hot water heating 
Hot water heating 
Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Space heating, Cooling 
Space heating 
Space heating, Cooling 
Space heating 

August 2020  

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

43.2 

43.2 

41.0 

39.3 

31.9 

26.5 

16.3 

15.9 

14.7 

13.2 

10% 

62% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

24% 

15% 

24% 

24% 

100% 

100% 

81% 

81% 

37% 

44% 

66% 

55% 

57% 

57% 

118 

 
 
 
A3.2.2 Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A3.4. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on water heating, space heating and lighting as follows: 

Table A3.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Bulgaria 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Water Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Water Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Education - Electricity - Water Heating 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Water Heating 

Education - Electricity - Lighting 

Private and Public Offices - Other   - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Refrigeration 

53.9 

35.0 

25.0 

18.6 

15.6 

12.2 

10.7 

10.2 

9.6 

9.4 

18.47 
60.47 
8.05 
247.80 
7.44 
6.18 
15.87 
7.86 
17.25 
3.50 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Of the top 10 programmes by technical energy saving potential within the commercial sector the top technical energy saving programmes 
can be found in electricity based water heating (95.5 ktoe by 2030) as they account for 4 of the top 10 in Table A3.4. Water heating 
programmes account for 47.6% of the total energy savings potential from programmes in Table A3.4, however only 12.2 ktoe is evaluated to 
be economic (6% of top 10 total). Space heating programmes form 2 programmes within Table A3.4 and present technical energy savings of 
44.6 ktoe by 2030 (22.3% of top 10 programmes). Lighting programmes present 50.8 ktoe in economic energy savings. 

August 2020  

119 

 
 
 
The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the commercial sector are shown in Figure A3.26. All have a high likelihood to succeed 
owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of acceptance with stakeholders based on 
previous measures (scores 3.0 – 4.2). Relative to the top technical potential programmes shown in Table A3.4, there is one less water 
heating programme (now showing 3) and only one space heating programme, being replaced with two lighting programmes. The lighting 
programmes have the highest likelihood of success with scores of 4.2, whereas the space heating in private and public offices programme 
has the lowest likelihood of success with a score of 3.0.  

Hot water and space heating measures are more expensive to implement than lighting-based end uses. The most expensive of the top 10 
programmes by a significant margin is the electricity space heating programme in Offices with a CCE of 60.5 cent/kWh, which makes this 
programme uneconomic. The most cost-effective programme is refrigeration in wholesale and retail, with a CCE of 3.50 cent/kWh which 
makes it nearly half the price of the next cheapest programme. 

Figure A3.26 

Top energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Bulgaria in 2030 

August 2020  

120 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A3.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Hot water heating. 2 ESOs, have impacts only towards water heating energy end-uses. The ESOs result in technical energy savings of 

80.8 ktoe. This is because there is no uptake of these ESOs, a maximum future uptake of 100%, and low complexity 

■  Lighting. 2 ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within lighting. Both lighting measures focus on better controls and 

lead to energy savings of 55.5 ktoe within this energy end-use. This is because of the high anticipated uptake of controls. 

■  Space heating and hot water heating / Multiple. 4 ESOs, have impacts toward both the space heating and water heating energy end-
uses. The ESOs are a combination of controls, building recommissioning and new builds (20% and 40% more efficient). Energy savings 
from these ESOs total 60.2 ktoe of which 33.3 ktoe is from the construction of new more energy efficient buildings (owing to an increase 
in uptake of 33% to 2030). Controls-based measures include adaptive thermostats (save cooling energy as well as space heating and 
hot water heating) and advanced BAS save 26.9 ktoe by 2030.  

■  Space heating. There are 2 ESOs which apply specifically toward space heating energy end-use which are the uptake of heat pumps 
and weather-stripping of doors within the commercial sector. Both ESOs have very low current uptake at 2% and 0% respectively and 
high future uptake resulting in a technical saving potential of 31.1 ktoe by 2030. 

Table A3.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Bulgaria in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Faucet Aerators 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps 

Commercial Door Air Infiltration Heat Pump 
Heating 

Water Heating 
Lighting 
Lighting 
Space Heating, Water Heating 
Space Heating, Water Heating 
Space Heating 
Space Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

 Space heating and hot water heating 

Water Heater Jackets                                                   

 Hot water heating 

10 

Adaptive Thermostats 

 Multiple 

August 2020  

69.1 

28.9 

26.6 

20.5 

17.4 

16.0 

15.0 

6.6 

6.0 

4.9 

0% 

3% 

3% 

29% 

3% 

2% 

0% 

29% 

0% 

3% 

Future 
uptake 
(2030) 

100% 

100% 

100% 

62% 

100% 

69% 

91% 

62% 

100% 

69% 

121 

 
 
 
A3.2.3 Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A3.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within process heating and machine drives programmes as follows: 

Table A3.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Bulgaria 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

60.9 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 
0.28 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Electricity - Machine drives 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Electricity - Process Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - RPP - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Machine drives 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

44.0 

43.8 

39.8 

28.6 

23.9 

20.9 

20.5 

20.2 

20.1 

0.29 

0.29 

0.24 

1.55 

0.34 

0.45 

0.28 

1.50 

0.28 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The total energy savings from the top 10 programmes are 322.8 ktoe by 2030, of which all of the programmes shown in Table A3.6 are 
considered economic energy savings. Process heating-based programmes present 274 ktoe of energy savings (85%), as they make up 8 of 
the top 10 programmes. There are 2 machines drives based programmes in Table A3.6, which present economic energy savings of 48.8 
ktoe by 2030.  Energy saving programmes in Chemicals and petrochemicals sub-sector account for 4 of the top 10 programmes and present 
economic energy savings of 131 ktoe by 2030, the largest of any sub-sector (40% of energy savings from top 10 programmes).  

August 2020  

122 

 
 
 
All programmes have a high likelihood of success owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political 
feasibility of implementing the energy efficiency measures as seen in Figure A3.27. Machine drives programmes have the highest likelihood 
of success with a score of 3.8, whilst process heating programmes have an average score 3.6 

There are three clear groups amongst the top 10 programmes split on the basis of their cost effectiveness. The fossil fuel-based 
programmes show a clear economic advantage over the electricity-based programmes. Fossil fuel – process heating programmes have a 
CCE of less than 0.3 cent/kWh, whereas process heating based electricity saving programmes have a CCE of 0.45 cent/kWh. By 
comparison the costliest of the top 10 programmes is machine drives, which has a CCE of 1.55 cent/kWh. All of the top 10 programmes are 
economic as there CCE’s are well below the relevant retail fuel tariff in 2030.  

Figure A3.27 

Top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Bulgaria in 2030  

August 2020  

123 

 
 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A3.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process Heating. All of the top 10 ESOs, focus on process heating. The main retrofits are the reduction in boiler and furnace energy 

consumption reduction by flue gas monitoring, boiler load management and correct sizing of the boiler unit as they can be applied to all 
fossil fuel based ESOs (153.5 ktoe). Control and maintenance-based measures include advanced process and heating control in 
furnaces present 70.2 ktoe in energy savings. The total energy savings from implementing the top 10 ESOs for the industrial sector is 
314.9 ktoe by 2030.  

Table A3.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Bulgaria in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy Savings 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020) 

Future uptake (2030) 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process 
Control (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery 
(Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

Process Heat Recovery to Preheat 
Makeup Water 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner 

Process Heating 

52.3 

45.5 

34.5 

33.4 

33.4 

26.5 

25.4 

24.7 

20.1 

19.1 

51% 

37% 

31% 

50% 

50% 

31% 

11% 

60% 

45% 

40% 

99% 

89% 

89% 

93% 

93% 

80% 

78% 

99% 

91% 

90% 

A3.2.4 Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A3.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on private cars, heavy goods vehicles and light duty vehicles quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

124 

 
 
 
 
Table A3.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport Sector in Bulgaria 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods 
vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road 
transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty 
Vehicles 

237.8 

59.8 

37.8 

35.6 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles  9.6 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

2.0 

0.9 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport  0.4 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

0.3 

0.1 

30.28 
4.90 

0.64 

9.17 

35.48 
3.62 
0.46 
0.16 
13.09 
50.65 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

The top energy efficiency programmes transport sector in Bulgaria are shown in Table A3.8. The programmes with the highest technical and 
economic energy saving potential are the programmes addressing energy efficiency in private cars (237.8 ktoe) which accounts for 62.4% of 
the total technical potential from the top 10 programmes calculated to be 384.3 ktoe. The programmes involving heavy goods vehicles 
programme present 59.8 ktoe in economic energy savings (15.8% of total in Table A3.8). Light duty vehicles can be applied to both 
passenger and freight transport and as such have the most programmes in the top 10 (4) and present 45.6 ktoe in economic energy savings. 

Figure A3.28 displays the top energy efficiency programmes for the transport sector in Bulgaria, where only 5 are being displayed as the 
normalised technical potential means 5 programmes have been given a score of 0. All programmes have a high likelihood of success owing 
to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing the energy efficiency 
measures. The programme with the highest likelihood of success is freight transport heavy good vehicles with a score of 3.8. The 
programmes with the lowest scores are passenger transport, light duty vehicles with a score of 3.7, passenger transport public road 
transport with a score of 3.7. The top 10 ESOs as shown in Figure A3.28 are all low complexity measures, as the purchase of a new vehicle 
at the end of the incumbents life is not intrusive to the end-user. 

August 2020  

125 

 
 
 
 
The least cost-effective of the top programmes is the freight transport – gasoline/diesel – light transport vehicles, with a CCE of 35.28 
cent/kWh, closely followed by the programme with the largest energy saving potential, passenger transport in private cars with a CCE of 
30.28 cent/kWh.  Both of these programmes are evaluated to be uneconomic as they are well above the relevant retail fuel tariff for 2030 for 
gasoline and diesel. The programme with the lowest CCE of 0.64 cent/kWh is passenger transport using public road transport. 

Figure A3.28 

Top technical energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Bulgaria in 2030  

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A3.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private cars. The top 3 ESOs are the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved efficiency). The 

uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 12% and a high future uptake of 100% leading to a technical energy saving of 273.1 ktoe. All 
of the top ESOs have a low current uptake and high future uptake, owing to the technical potential of the vehicle fleet renewal rate being 
consistently high.  

August 2020  

126 

 
 
 
 
■  Heavy Goods Vehicles. 4 of the top 10 ESOs are Heavy Goods Vehicles based, which present technical energy savings of 51.7 ktoe by 

2030. This is as a result of a maximum future uptake for the ESOs in this end-use of 40% (owing to vehicle fleet renewal rate). 

■  Light Duty Vehicles. There are 3 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles. They present a technical saving potential 

totalling 44.9 ktoe by 2030.  

Table A3.9 

Top 10 ESOs for Transport sector in Bulgaria in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%)   Private cars 

103.1 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

 Private cars and 
public road transport  96.3 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%)   Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

73.7 

19.8 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  15.6 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  14.4 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

14.0 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  12.0 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

11.1 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  9.6 

12% 

12% 

12% 

7% 

4% 

4% 

7% 

4% 

7% 

4% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

70% 

40% 

40% 

70% 

40% 

70% 

40% 

A3.3  Recommendations 

A3.3.1 Policy Review 

In its draft NECP, Bulgaria targeted 25% of its final energy consumption to come from renewable energy by 2030. This is below the 27% 
recommended in Annex II of the Governance Regulation. 

Bulgaria’s 2030 energy efficiency contribution was low in ambition: 17.7 Mtoe primary and 8.7 Mtoe final energy consumption. It was 
recommended that more substantial policies and measures were put in place, with planned impact assessments. Bulgaria’s energy 

August 2020  

127 

 
 
 
 
efficiency contribution in their draft NECP was based on projections from existing methods. For this reason, the Commission recognises 
more effort is needed to raise the level of ambition. 

The Commission recommended more information on long-term renovation of existing buildings, in particular nearly zero-energy buildings. It 
also commented on the lack of measures to reduce transport emissions and the funding for this.  

Bulgaria currently has the lowest electricity prices in the EU for household and industry. This is in part due to the low average wage. 
Bulgaria’s Energy Strategy for 2030 includes an increase in the price of electricity generated by thermal power plants. It also targets the 
closure of some thermal power plants which do not meet environmental requirements (e.g. Maritsa East). PV systems are envisaged to 
replace these decommissioned power plants.  

There is a large project to expand the natural gas network in Bulgaria, with the aim of reducing air pollution.  

In its draft NECP Bulgaria committed to the stimulation of biomass heating (wood, straw, pellets and briquettes) over wind and solar 
electricity. The biomass heating strategy would have a negative impact on air quality compared to the electrification heat generated from 
wind and solar. 

In the transport sector, the National Air Pollution Control Programme 2020-2030 includes the introduction of low emission zones for city 
transport and a commitment to allow only low emission vehicles to be imported for use as public transport.  

A3.3.2 Policy and Measures Analysis 

Bulgaria has 28 policies and measures concerning energy efficiency, which it mentioned in its NECP draft submission.  

Bulgaria has four currently implemented policies and measures in the residential sector, of which two are regulatory, one regulatory and 
informational and one is fiscal. One of the regulatory measures is ‘financial support for multi-family residential buildings. The programme was 
worth BGN 2 billion and all funds have been distributed already. The impact of residential sector measures in Bulgaria from 2021 onwards 
needs to be clarified. Residential sector measures are overall strong, with particular respect to their cost efficiency and ease of refinancing. 

There are six measures covering the industrial sector. These include three mandatory pieces of regulation for energy audits – a transposition 
of the European Energy Efficiency Directive. Other measures address industrial waste heat, energy monitoring and fulfilment of the energy 
saving opportunities noted in energy audits. Overall, policies are relatively strong in the sense of persistency of savings. A small number of 
the measures score poorly on ease and stability of refinancing. 

There are limited policies and measures in the commercial sector, a sector included only in cross-sectoral measures. The national plan for 
improving the energy performance of heating and/or cooled state-owned buildings occupied by the public administration addresses energy 
efficiency. In both the commercial and residential sectors. There is a National long-term programme to promote investment in the 
implementation of measures improving the energy performance of buildings of the public and private national residential and commercial 
building stock. The measures are generally strong, though hard to refinance. 

August 2020  

128 

 
 
 
Currently there are no measures or policies in the transport sector. The infrastructure programme for the improvement of energy efficiency in 
the transport sector 2012-2020 is coming to an end. It can be criticised for being difficult to re-finance and link to other policies/measures. 

The Integrated Transport Strategy shows the plan for this sector until 2030. The energy efficiency related measures include improvement of 
the railway rolling stock, aircraft and watercraft. National minimum standards for the maintenance and repair of large road vehicles are 
included. Other fuels for vehicles are to be encouraged and the transport infrastructure e.g. roads, railways is to be invested in. The impact 
of these measures needs to be quantified and they need to be developed into regulatory instruments or similar. The Commission 
commented on the lack of measures to reduce transport emissions in Bulgaria’s draft NECP. 

The National Plan for Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings spans from 2015-2020. Measures and policies for 2021-2030 need to be defined and 
their impact evaluated.  

Bulgaria’s Energy Savings Obligation is projected to save 4,185.81 ktoe by 2030. It has been extended beyond the end of the previous 
period in 2020, for the new period 2021 to 2030. The policy targets suppliers and is an economic type of policy instrument.  

A3.3.3 Recommendations 

In the residential sector, Bulgaria should seek to make use of the technical potential in hot water heating end uses. There is significant 
technical potential in measures and policies designed for single family houses rather than multifamily apartments, therefore a long-term 
renovation strategy of existing buildings should specifically target hot water heating in single family houses. The large potential this has can 
contribute to increase the ambition of Bulgaria’s energy efficiency contribution, which was criticised as too small by the Commission.   

Lighting is also an area of opportunity for Bulgaria. Replacing incandescent lighting with LEDs has the potential to save 43.2 ktoe by 2030 
according to Table A3.10. 

Table A3.10 

Top 10 ESOs for Bulgaria by 2030 

Country 
rank 

1 

2 

3 

August 2020  

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Transport 

Improved vehicle 
efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

103.1 

Transport 

Improved vehicle 
efficiency (3%) 

 Private cars, Public 
road transport 

Transport 

Improved vehicle 
efficiency (4%) 

 Private cars 

96.3 

73.7 

12% 

12% 

12% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

129 

 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Commercial  Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring 
(boiler) 

Process Heating 

69.1 

52.3 

Industrial 

Advanced Heating and 
Process Control 
(Furnace) 

Process Heating 

45.5 

Residential  Low-Flow Shower Head  Hot water heating 

Residential  Residential Lighting 

Lighting 

Efficiency from Incand. 

43.2 

43.2 

Residential  Heat Pump Water 

Hot water heating 

41.0 

Heater  

10 

Residential  Water Heater 
Replacement 

Hot water heating 

39.3 

Table A3.11 

Top 10 Programmes for Bulgaria by 2030 

0% 

51% 

37% 

10% 

62% 

4% 

4% 

100% 

99% 

89% 

100% 

100% 

89% 

81% 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - 
Private cars 

Residential 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot 
water heating 

237.8 

77.4 

30.28 

15.96 

No 

No 

Country 
rank 

1 

2 

August 2020  

130 

 
 
 
 
3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot 

67.3 

21.85 

No 

water heating 

Industrial 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural 
Gas - Process Heating 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy 
goods vehicles 

60.9 

59.8 

0.28 

Yes 

4.90 

Yes 

Commercial  Private and Public Offices - Electricity - 

53.9 

18.47 

No 

Water Heating 

Industrial 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - 
Process Heating 

Industrial 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

Industrial 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - 
Process Heating 

44.0 

43.8 

39.8 

37.8 

0.29 

Yes 

0.29 

Yes 

0.24 

Yes 

0.64 

Yes 

10 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - 
Public road transport 

Bulgaria should increase the number of measures in the commercial sector. Hot water heating holds the largest technical potential in the 
commercial sector, where it could make the most impact in private and public offices. In addition to hot water, space heating was identified 
as having large technical potential. Bulgaria should therefore consider policies and measures which address heating in buildings for both 
existing and new build properties. Four of the ten top ESOs with the greatest technical potential for Bulgaria relate to hot water heating in 
buildings. The end use with the second greatest economic potential in the commercial sector was lighting. Measures and policies to address 
this should therefore be considered.  

The most cost-effective programme for Bulgaria, as shown in Table A3.11, is industrial sector chemicals and petrochemicals, targeting 
process heating provided by natural gas. 

August 2020  

131 

 
 
 
 
Bulgaria should seek to increase its measures in the industrial sector because this sector has some of the most cost-effective energy 
savings programmes. Process heating has the largest technical and economic potential (240 ktoe by 2030) and is currently part address 
through measures focussed on industrial waste heat. End uses such as ‘advanced heating and process control (furnace)’ and ‘flue gas 
monitoring (boiler)’ within this sector would be cost effective to implement. Table A3.10. shows these two measures alone are the fifth and 
sixth ESOs with the greatest technical potential for Bulgaria. Although opportunities to improve energy efficiency were spread across sub-
sectors, Table A3.11 shows the chemical and petrochemical industries to have the greatest economic potential. Their intense use of process 
heating contributes towards this. 

Bulgaria should plan and implement transport policy to strengthen its limited actions for this sector. Table A3.11 shows that along with the 
industrial sector, the largest technical energy saving programmes are within the transport sector. The greatest area of technical potential is 
the end-use private cars (237.8 ktoe by 2030) and the sub-sector passenger transport. The end use with the greatest economic potential, 
however, was heavy goods vehicles. The passenger transport and freight transport sub-sectors have roughly shared economic potential until 
2040-2050, where freight transport becomes the area of greater opportunity. 

To fulfil its 2030 energy target, Bulgaria should: 

1.  Strengthen its policies in the transport sector, Focussing on heavy goods vehicles. 
2.  Develop measures to address energy efficiency in the industrial sector. Measures surrounding process heating would be most cost 

effective and have the potential to save the most energy in the sector. 

3.  Increase measures in the commercial sector, focussing on measures which target hot water. 

August 2020  

132 

 
 
 
Annex 4  Croatia 

A4.1  Summary 

Table A4.1 

Summary of modelling results for Croatia 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

2298.9 

853.0 

1287.3 

1892.8 

6332.0 

 662  

 275  

 327  

 115  

 1,379  

 155  

 197  

 318  

 58  

 728  

29% 

32% 

25% 

6% 

22% 

7% 

23% 

25% 

3% 

11% 

54 

August 2020  

133 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A4.1.2 Residential 

Figure A4.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating 
(324.4 ktoe) and space heating (283.5 ktoe). 

Figure A4.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on residential energy end uses

August 2020  

134 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A4.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 442.2 ktoe. 

Figure A4.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on residential sub-sectors

August 2020  

135 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A4.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Hot 
water heating and space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
hot water heating (81.4 ktoe) and lighting (30.8 ktoe). 

Figure A4.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

136 

 
 
 
 
Figure A4.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 113.1 ktoe. 

Figure A4.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

137 

 
 
 
 
Figure A4.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1637.4 ktoe (29% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 2144.3 ktoe (7% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 2298.9 ktoe. 

Figure A4.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Croatia 

August 2020  

138 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Croatia ’s final energy consumption by 661.5 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A4.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (53.5%), electricity (29.1%) and 
RPP (12.7%) sector contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A4.6 

Primary energy impacts for Croatia based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

139 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A4.1.3 Commercial   

Figure A4.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Lighting contains the highest 
potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are lighting (111.2 ktoe) and water heating 
(78.3 ktoe). 

Figure A4.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

140 

 
 
 
 
Figure A4.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Hotels and 
restaurants contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, hotels and restaurants have a potential savings of 81.5 ktoe and private 
and public offices have potential energy savings of 61 ktoe. 

Figure A4.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on commercial sub-sectors  

August 2020  

141 

 
 
 
 
Figure A4.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Lighting and water heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
lighting (111.2 ktoe) and water heating (67 ktoe). 

Figure A4.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

142 

 
 
 
 
Figure A4.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Hotels and 
restaurants contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of hotels and restaurants are 68.5 ktoe, 
followed by wholesale and retail trade 43 ktoe. 

Figure A4.10 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

143 

 
 
 
 
Figure A4.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 578.0 ktoe (32% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 656.1 ktoe (23% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 853 ktoe. 

Figure A4.11 

Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Croatia 

August 2020  

144 

 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Croatia ’s final energy consumption by 275.0 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A4.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (79.4%), natural gas (14.0%) and 
RPP (4.04%) sector contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A4.12 

Primary energy impacts for Croatia based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

145 

 
 
 
 
A4.1.4 Industrial    

Figure A4.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (260 ktoe) and 
machine drives (37 ktoe). 

Figure A4.13 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

146 

 
 
 
 
Figure A4.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Petroleum 
refineries contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, petroleum refineries have a potential savings of 83 ktoe and other 
industry has potential energy savings of 67 ktoe. 

Figure A4.14 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

147 

 
 
 
 
Figure A4.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (260 ktoe) and machine drives (37 ktoe). 

Figure A4.15 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

148 

 
 
 
 
Figure A4.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Petroleum 
refineries contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of petroleum refineries are 82 ktoe, followed by 
other industry 66 ktoe. 

Figure A4.16 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

149 

 
 
 
 
Figure A4.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical energy 
consumption scenario is 959.9 ktoe (25% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 969.4 ktoe (25% energy saving 
against BAU), and actual BAU is 1287.3 ktoe. 

Figure A4.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Croatia 

August 2020  

150 

 
 
 
 
 
The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Croatia ’s final energy consumption by 327.5 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A4.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (33%), RPP (26%), electricity 
(33%) sectors contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A4.18 

Primary energy impacts for Croatia based on technical potential for industrial sector 

August 2020  

151 

 
 
 
 
A4.1.5 Transport  

Figure A4.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the highest 
potential energy savings over time, followed by light duty vehicles. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are private 
cars (59 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (46 ktoe). 

Figure A4.19 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

152 

 
 
 
Figure A4.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passport transport has a potential savings of 95 ktoe and freight transport 
has potential energy savings of 20 ktoe 

Figure A4.20 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on transport sub-sectors

August 2020  

153 

 
 
 
 
Figure A4.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Light duty vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are light duty 
vehicles (46 ktoe) and heavy good vehicles (7 ktoe). 

Figure A4.21 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on transport energy end uses

August 2020  

154 

 
 
 
 
Figure A4.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of freight transport is 38 ktoe, followed by 
passenger transport (20 ktoe). 

Figure A4.22 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Croatia based on transport sub-sectors

August 2020  

155 

 
 
 
 
Figure A4.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1767.7 ktoe (6% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1830.0 ktoe (3% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 1892.8 ktoe. 

Figure A4.23 

Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Croatia

August 2020  

156 

 
 
 
 
The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Croatia’s final energy consumption by 115.27 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A4.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (94.06%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

Figure A4.24 

Primary energy impacts for Croatia based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

157 

 
 
 
 
 
A4.2  Discussion 

A4.2.1 Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A4.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating and hot water heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A4.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Croatia 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

128.9 

126.3 

70.1 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  67.0 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Lighting 

Single family houses - Electricity - Space heating 

50.8 

32.3 

26.9 

22.8 

21.3 

19.2 

18.38 
7.31 
7.25 
22.68 
11.34 
18.19 
7.31 
15.29 
1.03 
6.07 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Hot water heating programmes form 5 of the top 10 programmes for the residential sector and also have the largest energy saving potential, 
with 340 ktoe. However, only 73.6 ktoe is evaluated to be economic. Programmes on space heating for single family houses and multi-family 
apartments (totalling 242.5 ktoe) presents the second largest technical saving potential, however only 19.2 ktoe is economic by 2030.  

August 2020  

158 

 
 
 
 
These programmes also have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.3 – 4.5), as can be seen in Figure A4.25. This is due to good 
policy measures and the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement. Lighting programmes for multi-
family apartments are deemed the most likely, (4.5) with the least being multifamily house natural gas space heating (3.3). 

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is lighting in multifamily apartments (CCE of 0.73 cent/kWh). The least cost-effective 
programme is hot water heating in single family homes with a CCE of 18.4 cent/kWh. 

Figure A4.25 

Top technical energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Croatia in 2030 

August 2020  

159 

 
 
 
 
The magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes is shown in Table A4.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. These ESOS are 
analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Multiple end-use. Net-zero-ready homes and Energy-efficient homes (20% above code) is a design ESO related to multiple energy end 
use (space heating, hot water heating and cooling). Net-zero-ready homes are the area with the largest energy saving potential (62.7) 
owing in part to the low uptake of the ESO. Energy-efficient homes (20% above code) has a technical saving potential totalling 32.2 ktoe.  

■  Hot water heating. The 5 hot water heating ESOs present a technical saving potential totalling 154.2 ktoe. All have a relatively low 

current uptake and the potential by 2030 is high.  

■  Space heating. The three space heating ESOs present a technical saving potential totalling 88.5 ktoe by 2030. The current market 

uptake for thermal curtains for windows, high efficiency wall insulation, and air infiltration are all very low (1%). The projected uptake of 
such technologies by 2030 is significant (34% - 46%). Air infiltration and wall insulation ESOs also contribute to energy savings in the 
space cooling energy end-use.  

Table A4.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector for Croatia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above 
code) 

Thermal Curtains 

Hot water heating, Space 
heating 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Space heating, Hot water 
heating, Cooling 
Space heating 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Hot water heating 

Air Infiltration 

Wall Insulation 

Water Heater Replacement 

10  Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

62.7 

38.7 

35.0 

32.2 

30.6 

30.1 

29.4 

28.5 

25.8 

24.5 

0% 

10% 

17% 

0% 

1% 

17% 

1% 

1% 

17% 

13% 

48% 

100% 

50% 

40% 

41% 

57% 

46% 

34% 

94% 

100% 

August 2020  

160 

 
 
 
A4.2.2 Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A4.4. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on lighting, water heating and space heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A4.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Croatia 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Water Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Lighting 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Lighting 

Hotels & Restaurants - Natural Gas - Water Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Water Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

35.2 

34.7 

28.0 

17.2 

15.0 

13.5 

9.2 

8.4 

7.4 

6.9 

5.66 
5.23 
1.93 
5.58 
5.64 
0.09 
40.35 
9.52 
4.19 
11.34 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Lighting programmes form 4 of the top 10 programmes for the commercial sector and also have the largest technical and economic energy 
saving potential, with 102 ktoe. From the top 10 programmes, technical energy savings from water heating total 49.9 ktoe, but also represent 
an economic energy saving. Energy savings from space heating programmes total 23.4 ktoe by 2030, however none of these programmes 
are economic.  

August 2020  

161 

 
 
 
The effect of lighting programmes becomes even more pronounced when looking at 0, where they now form 6 of the top 10 programmes; 
three space heating programmes don’t make the list, in favour of lighting and IT & Multimedia. All top ten programmes have a high likelihood 
of success (scoring between 3.3 – 4.3), attributed by good policy measures and the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and 
straightforward to implement as seen in 0. This is particularly relevant for lighting programmes which are the most likely to succeed (score of 
4.3). Three hot water heating programmes round out the top ten, having likelihood scores of 3.3-3.7. 

The most cost-effective programmes of the top 10 are natural gas and electric heating within hotels and restaurants (CCE of 0.09 and 1.9 
cent/kWh, respectively). The least cost-effective programmes in the top ten are electricity water heating in Other Commercial, and IT Offices 
IT & Multimedia, with CCEs of 9.5 and 21.1 cent/kWh, respectively. The lighting-based programmes have CCE’s of 5.2 – 5.7 cent/kWh. Top 
technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Croatia in 2030 

Figure A4.26 

Top technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Croatia in 2030 

August 2020  

162 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A4.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Hot water heating. The top ESO is faucet aerators which presents a technical saving potential totalling 24 ktoe. The combination of low 

uptake of this technology and high future uptake lead to the high technical energy savings. 

■  Lighting. The 4-lighting ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling 50 ktoe by 2030. The current market uptake for controls-
based measures and efficient lighting are all relatively low with 2% and 1% respectively. The controls based ESOs lead to a larger 
energy saving when compared to the upgrade to LED. 

■  Space heating and hot water heating. Four measures save energy in space heating and hot water heating. Two of the measures 

involve the construction of new efficient buildings (20% and 40% better), which lead to 22.1 ktoe technical energy savings by 2030. Other 
measures include the use of Advanced controllers and building recommissioning, which contribute an additional 21.9 ktoe in technical 
energy savings. The low current uptake of these ESOs (2%) and high future uptake (35% and 100% for new constructions and 
controllers respectively) lead to the significant energy saving potential. 

Table A4.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector for Croatia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Lighting 

Lighting 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Space Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Linear Florescent Fixture Upgrade - 40 
W Reduction 

Lighting 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

10 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W 
(Against 250W baseline) 

Lighting 

24.0 

17.3 

15.8 

13.6 

12.8 

11.1 

10.8 

9.6 

8.5 

7.4 

17% 

2% 

2% 

2% 

10% 

2% 

2% 

1% 

2% 

1% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

35% 

77% 

100% 

100% 

92% 

35% 

100% 

August 2020  

163 

 
 
 
A4.2.3 Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A4.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies with process heating and machine drives, quantified as follows: 

Table A4.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Croatia 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - RPP - Process Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - RPP - Process Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - RPP - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - RPP - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Machine drives 

29.0 

22.9 

22.2 

20.8 

18.0 

17.5 

15.9 

13.8 

11.7 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - Process Heating  9.4 

0.23 

0.27 

0.23 

0.27 

0.32 

0.27 

0.27 

0.32 

1.39 

0.26 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating programmes form 9 of the top 10 programmes for the industrial sector and also have the largest technical and economic 
energy saving potential, with 169.5 ktoe. From the top 10 programmes, technical energy and economic energy savings from machine drives 
total 11.7 ktoe.  

Process heating programmes form the top 10 energy efficiency programmes as seen in Figure A4.27. All of programmes have a low 
likelihood of success (scoring between 2.0-2.1), as there are no previous energy efficiency measures within this sector to evaluate. The 
programme with the highest chance to succeed of the top 10 are electricity-based process heating programmes with a score of 2.1. 

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is process heating within petroleum refineries owing to the large technical potential (CCE of 
0.23 cent/kWh). The least cost-effective programme is machine drives with a CCE of 1.39 cent/kWh. It should be noted that all process 
heating programmes within industry have a very low CCE and are all economic.  

August 2020  

164 

 
 
 
Figure A4.27 

Top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Croatia in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A4.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process heating. All of the top 10 ESOs reflect energy saving in process heating end-use. This is largely because of the high energy 
consumption of this end-use within the sector. Boiler/Furnace control ESOs form 5 of the top 6 measures totalling 85.5 ktoe technical 
energy savings by 2030. 21 ktoe can be saved through heat recovery as can be seen by ESOs 8 and 10. Whilst the current uptake of the 
top 10 is not low, the future uptake is anticipated to be higher and, in some cases, reach 100%.  

August 2020  

165 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A4.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector for Croatia in 2030 

Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Furnace) 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Furnace) 

High Efficiency Burner 

10 

Process Heat Recovery to Preheat Makeup 
Water 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

23.6 

18.3 

14.9 

14.9 

13.8 

12.4 

11.2 

11.1 

10.1 

9.5 

52% 

38% 

51% 

51% 

32% 

32% 

61% 

11% 

40% 

46% 

100% 

90% 

94% 

94% 

89% 

81% 

100% 

80% 

91% 

92% 

A4.2.4 Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown Table A4.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes for private cars, light duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles, quantified as follows: 

Table A4.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Croatia 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

57.1 

33.0 

12.9 

12.73 

2.07 

5.23 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

August 2020  

166 

 
 
 
Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

6.7 

3.0 

1.5 

0.6 

0.3 

0.1 

0.1 

4.67 

0.50 

1.58 

0.45 

3.07 

7.77 

0.13 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Programmes for private cars total 57.1 ktoe for the transport sector, however only 1.5 ktoe is considered economic and this is for electric 
private cars. 4 of the top 10 programmes focus on light duty vehicles in freight and passenger transport, which total 46.3 ktoe technical and 
economic potential by 2030.  The other significant end-use is heavy goods vehicles programmes, which presents a technical and economic 
saving potential of 7.3 ktoe by 2030. 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes are shown in Figure A4.28. All programmes have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 
3.4 – 4.1), attributed by good policy measures and the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement. 
This is particularly relevant for heavy good vehicles, which are the most likely to succeed (score of 4.1). 

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is freight transport heavy goods vehicles (CCE of 0.45 cent/kWh). The least cost-effective 
programme is the one with the largest technical potential, private cars which has a CCE of 12.73 cent/kWh. The freight transport 
programmes for heavy goods vehicles and light duty vehicles have CCE’s of 4.67 cent/kWh and 5.23 cent/kWh respectively.  

August 2020  

167 

 
 
 
Figure A4.28 

Top energy efficiency programmes for Transport sector in Croatia in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A4.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private cars. The top ESO is through the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved efficiency). The 

uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 3% with a 31% uptake by 2030 leading to a technical energy saving of 58.5 ktoe. 

■  Light Duty Vehicles. There are 3 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles. They present a technical saving potential 
totalling 45.5 ktoe by 2030. These ESOs have a higher current uptake when compared to private cars, however the future uptake is 
anticipated to be greater at 70%. 

■  Heavy Goods Vehicles. Only two ESOs of the top 10, target energy savings in heavy goods vehicles which present technical energy 

savings of 3.1 ktoe by 2030. This is as a result of a low future uptake for the ESOs in this end-use.  

August 2020  

168 

 
 
 
  
 
Table A4.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector for Croatia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

Private cars and public 
road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

Light duty vehicles 

Fuel efficient tyres, C1 

Private cars and public 
road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

Heavy goods vehicles 

10 

Fuel efficient tyres, C2 

Heavy goods vehicles 
and light duty vehicles 

24.3 

20.1 

17.4 

16.8 

14.2 

11.2 

3.2 

1.6 

1.5 

1.3 

3% 

7% 

3% 

3% 

7% 

7% 

0% 

1% 

1% 

0% 

31% 

70% 

31% 

31% 

70% 

70% 

6% 

6% 

6% 

2% 

A4.3  Recommendations 

A4.3.1 Policy Review 

Croatia’s draft NECP included low ambition energy efficiency targets and the Commission recommended that Croatia increase its efforts to 
contribute to the Union’s 2030 energy efficiency targets. It did, however, cite 16 regulatory and non-regulatory measures for energy 
efficiency. 

August 2020  

169 

 
 
 
 
The Energy Efficiency Obligation scheme, part of the Energy Efficiency Act, is going to be implemented and is a key contributor to Croatia’s 
energy efficiency policy. It will oblige energy suppliers to meet energy savings targets. It also includes the renovation of buildings and new 
build Nearly Zero Energy Buildings. The scheme is targeting 40% of the total reduction in energy consumption mentioned in Article 7 of the 
Energy Efficiency Directive.  

The Energy Efficient Public Lighting programme exists to address public lighting energy consumption and voluntary measures, which span 
behavioural interventions to green public procurement, support the reduction in energy consumption in multiple sectors.  

The Commission commented that energy efficiency in transport should be better addressed than currently in the draft NECP. 

In response to EU Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU, in March 2019, a Long-term Strategy for the Promotion of Investments in 
Renovation of the National Building Stock of Croatia10 was adopted. This policy addresses the energy consumption from buildings, which is 
around 40% of Croatia’s total energy consumption. The draft Energy Development Strategy states that nearly 48% of investment (moderate 
scenario) in Croatia’s low-carbon transition will be directed at the buildings sector.  

In the transport sector, the Environmental Protection and Energy Efficiency Fund launched a co-financing programme for electric vehicle 
(EV) charging stations in May 2019. Companies, municipalities, entrepreneurs and not-for-profit organisations can apply for up to 40% of 
eligible costs towards the installation of EV chargers. The same fund also announced a programme to co-finance electric and hybrid 
vehicles.  

The railway transport in Croatia is in need to renovation and although measures and policies exist, these are still in their infancy and the 
impact of their implementation is yet to come.  

A4.3.2 Policy and Measures Analysis 

Croatia has 25 policies and measures directly related to, or encompassing, energy efficiency. 

For the residential sector, several measures are planned to support the renovation of buildings. Three economic and planning types of policy 
currently exist to address the energy performance of buildings. Residential measures are strong and do particular well in having a high 
impact/number of applications and being able to be linked to other measure and policy packages. 

In the industry sector, there is one planning instrument, ‘Industry 4.0 National Initiative’ to address energy intensity. Not enough information 
was provided by the member state to analyse the strength of this policy. 

10 Dugoročna strategija za poticanje ulaganja u obnovu nacionalnog fonda zgrada Republike Hrvatske (Long-term Strategy for the Promotion of Investments in Renovation of the 
National Building Stock of Croatia), Government of Croatia, 2019, https://vlada.gov.hr/UserDocsImages//2016/Sjednice/2019/Ožujak/148%20sjednica%20VRH//148%20-
%207%20Prijedlog.docx [Accessed 18/12/2019] 

August 2020  

170 

 
 
 
                                                
There are two measures in the transport sector, both of which are implemented. These are the Transport Policy and National Clean Mobility 
Action Plan. Only one of these includes regulatory and economic elements but both are planning instruments. Croatia’s transport policies are 
strong, especially in their potential for market transformation and promotion of energy service market.  

There are no specific planned for implemented measures for the commercial sector. 

There are 19 cross-sector measures covering energy and buildings. Of these, the majority are planning instruments although eight are 
economic and two are regulatory. 11 of the cross-sectoral measures are implemented and the rest are planned.  

A4.3.3 Recommendations 

The residential sector is the basis for the 10 ESOs with the greatest technical potential in Croatia. The hot water and space heating end 
uses have the highest technical and economic potential for this sector. The sub-sectors with the most potential are single family houses, 
this can be attributed to the number of single-family homes compared to multifamily apartments in Croatia and the more obvious 
facilitation of energy efficiency measures and low carbon building services in multifamily apartments.  

Table A4.11 shows that the cost-effective programme with the greatest technical potential for Croatia is in the residential sector. 
Measures that target single family houses, electricity and hot water heating have the greatest most cost-effective potential for measures. 

Croatia has several planned, and three implemented, policies and measures to address these opportunities in the residential sector. The 
Energy Efficiency Obligation scheme will address new build nearly-zero energy homes and promote the renovation of existing housing 
stock, as is recommended as the fourth top ESO for Croatia in Table A4.10. 

The investment required to support buildings renovation and the construction of nearly-zero energy buildings from 2021-2050 is 
estimated at 183.7-239.5 billion HRK (approx. 24.6-32.2 billion EUR)11. 

Table A4.10 

Top ESOs for Croatia by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

Residential 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, 
Space heating 

62.7 

0% 

100% 

11 Nacrt prijedloga Strategije energetskog razvoja Republike Hrvatske do 2030. s pogledom na 2050. i konačne verzije Bijele knjige (Draft of the proposal for the Strategy of Energy 
Development of the Republic of Croatia until 2030 with an outlook to 2050 and a final version of the White Book). Zagreb: Ministry for Environmental Protection and Energy of the 
Republic of Croatia. Available at: https://mzoe.gov.hr/vijesti/nacrt-prijedloga-strategije-energetskog-razvoja-republike-hrvatske-do-2030-s-pogledom-na-2050-i-konacne-verzije-bijele-
knjige/5490 [Accessed 18/12/2019] 

August 2020  

171 

 
 
 
                                                
Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

Residential  Wastewater Heat 

Hot water heating 

Recovery Systems 

38.7 

35.0 

Residential 

Energy Efficient Homes 
(20% above code) 

Space heating, Hot 
water heating, Cooling 

32.2 

Residential 

Thermal Curtains 

Space heating 

Residential 

Active Solar Water Heating 
Systems 

Hot water heating 

30.6 

30.1 

Residential 

Air Infiltration 

Space heating, Cooling  29.4 

Residential  Wall Insulation 

Space heating, Cooling  28.5 

Residential  Water Heater 
Replacement 

Hot water heating 

25.8 

10 

Residential  Minimize Hot and Warm 

Hot water heating 

24.5 

Clothes Wash 

10% 

17% 

0% 

1% 

17% 

1% 

1% 

17% 

13% 

100% 

48% 

50% 

40% 

57% 

46% 

34% 

94% 

100% 

Table A4.11 

Top programmes for Croatia by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

1 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot 

128.9 

18.38 

No 

water heating 

August 2020  

172 

 
 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space 

126.3 

heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - 

70.1 

Space heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot 

67.0 

water heating 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - 
Private cars 

57.1 

Residential  Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water 

50.8 

heating 

Commercial  Private and Public Offices - Electricity - 

35.2 

Lighting 

Commercial  Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - 

34.7 

Lighting 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - 
Light Duty Vehicles 

33.0 

7.31 

7.25 

22.68 

12.73 

11.34 

5.66 

5.23 

2.07 

10 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Hot water 

32.3 

18.19 

heating 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

In the commercial sector, Croatia should implement more measures and policies. The largest technical and economic potential can be 
harnessed by addressing lighting. The Energy Efficient Public programme contributes to reduces energy consumption in this area but 
there is more that can be done. Private and public offices is the sub-sector with the largest economic and technical potential (35.2 ktoe 
technical potential by 2030). 

For the industrial sector, Table A4.10 shows that process heating has the highest technical and economic potential by far, with 260 ktoe 
of technical potential by 2030. The technical and economic potential is fairly evenly distributed across the sub-sectors, however 

August 2020  

173 

 
 
 
petroleum refineries and slightly higher compared to other industries. Croatia should look to plan and implement measures and policies in 
the industrial sector as these are currently limited.  

The transport sector holds the second greatest, cost-effective technical potential programme (Table A4.11). The transport sector’s 
greatest technical potential by 2030 is the end use private cars (57.1 ktoe) and the sub-sector passenger transport (95 ktoe). The most 
cost-effective measures to deploy would be those aimed at improving the efficiency of light duty vehicles (33 ktoe economic potential in 
2030). 

In its fourth NEEEAP (2017-2019), Croatia noted that it will analyse the recommended measures of the Energy Efficiency Obligation 
scheme. It should therefore be expected that the above opportunities are incorporated as part of this strategy, to maximise the impact of 
energy savings. 

To fulfil its 2030 energy efficiency target Croatia should: 

1.  Focus on measures to promote residential energy savings opportunities such as the closure of windows and blinds at the correct 

times, or the incentivisation of smart blind controls.  

2.  Carefully monitor the impact of planned investment in nearly-zero energy homes and revise the policy if necessary 

3.  Plan and implement measures in the industrial sector, where measures are currently limited. 

August 2020  

174 

 
 
 
Annex 5  Cyprus 

A5.1  Summary 

Table A5.1 

Summary of modelling results for Cyprus 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

320 

312 

196 

560 

1,388 

 93  

 60  

 42  

 20  

 215  

 18  

 43  

 39  

 5  

 106  

29% 

19% 

21% 

4% 

15% 

6% 

14% 

20% 

1% 

8% 

146 

August 2020  

175 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A5.1.2 Residential 

Figure A5.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating (54.7 
ktoe) and space heating (17.7 ktoe).   

Figure A5.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

176 

 
 
 
 
Figure A5.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Multi-family apartments 
contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, multi-family apartments have single have potential energy savings of 51.2 ktoe. 

Figure A5.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

177 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Lighting 
contains the highest potential over time until 2041, after which space heating shows more potential over time. In 2030, the two highest 
potential economic savings by end use are lighting (12.5 ktoe) and appliances (3.1 ktoe).   

Figure A5.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

178 

 
 
 
 
Figure A5.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Multi-family 
apartments contain the highest potential over time after 2041. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of (10.2 ktoe).  

Figure A5.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

179 

 
 
 
 
Figure A5.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 226.8 ktoe (29% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 302.0 ktoe (6% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 320.0 ktoe.   

Figure A5.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Cyprus 

August 2020  

180 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Cyprus ’s final energy consumption by 93.2 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A5.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural Gas (35%) and Electricity (65 %) 
sector contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A5.6 

 Primary energy impacts for Cyprus based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

181 

 
 
 
 
 
A5.1.3 Commercial   

Figure A5.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Lighting contains the highest 
potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are lighting (25 ktoe) and space heating 
(14.5 ktoe).   

Figure A5.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

182 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Hotels and 
restaurants and private and public offices contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, private and public offices have a potential 
savings of 19.9 ktoe and hotels and restaurant have potential energy savings of 18.6 ktoe. 

Figure A5.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

183 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Lighting contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are lighting (25.0 ktoe) and 
water heating (10.3 ktoe).   

Figure A5.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

184 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Hotels and 
restaurants, wholesale, retail trade, and private and public offices contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy 
savings of hotels and restaurants are 15.4 ktoe, wholesale and retail trade are 13.6 ktoe, followed by private and public offices (10.1 ktoe). 

Figure A5.10 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

185 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 251.9. ktoe (19% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 268.7 ktoe (14% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 312 ktoe. 

Figure A5.11 

 Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Cyprus 

The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Cyprus ’s final energy consumption by 60.1 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

186 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (95.2%) and RPP (4.84%) sector 
contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A5.12 

Primary energy impacts for Cyprus based on technical potential for commercial sector

August 2020  

187 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A5.1.4 Industrial 

Figure A5.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (36 ktoe) and 
machine drives (2 ktoe).   

Figure A5.13 

 Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

188 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Non-metallic 
minerals contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, non-metallic minerals have a potential savings of (25.6 ktoe) and food and 
tobacco have potential energy savings of (8.1 ktoe). 

Figure A5.14 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

189 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (36.2 ktoe) and machine drives (2.1 ktoe). 

Figure A5.15 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on industrial energy end uses

August 2020  

190 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Non-metallic 
minerals contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of other industry are 23.5 ktoe, followed by food 
and tobacco (8 ktoe). 

Figure A5.16 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on industrial sub-sectors

August 2020  

191 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 154.7 ktoe (21% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 157.3 ktoe (20% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 196.2 ktoe. 

Figure A5.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Cyprus 

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Cyprus ’s final energy consumption by 41.6 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

192 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. RPP (59%), electricity (30%), and other 
(10%) sectors contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A5.18 

Primary energy impacts for Cyprus based on technical potential for industrial sector 

A5.1.5 Transport  

Figure A5.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the highest 
potential energy savings over time, followed by light duty vehicles. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are private 
cars (14 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (3 ktoe).   

August 2020  

193 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.19 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on transport energy end uses

Figure A5.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passport transport has a potential savings of 17 ktoe and freight transport 
has potential energy savings of 2 ktoe. 

August 2020  

194 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.20 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on transport sub-sectors

Figure A5.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Light duty vehicles and heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by 
end use are light duty vehicles (2 ktoe) and heavy good vehicles (2 ktoe). 

August 2020  

195 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.21 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A5.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of passenger transport is 4 ktoe, followed by 
freight transport (2 ktoe). 

August 2020  

196 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.22 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Cyprus based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A5.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 536.7 ktoe (4% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 553.77 ktoe (1% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 1685.98 ktoe 559.79 ktoe.    

August 2020  

197 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.23 

Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Cyprus 

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Cyprus ’s final energy consumption by 19.81 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A5.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (90.17%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

198 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.24 

Primary energy impacts for Cyprus based on technical potential for transport sector

A5.2  Discussion 

A5.2.1 Residential  

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A5.2 The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies with hot water heating, space heating, lighting and appliances, quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

199 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A5.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Cyprus 

Programme Name 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Lighting 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Lighting 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Appliances 

Single family houses - Electricity - Appliances 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

20.2 

17.0 

10.2 

9.5 

8.0 

6.8 

6.1 

5.7 

3.4 

3.1 

30.80 

25.34 

10.57 

23.28 

17.34 

1.05 

10.64 

1.48 

20.39 

5.27 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Hot water heating programmes form 4 of the top 10 programmes for the residential sector and have the largest technical energy saving 
potential, with 54.7 ktoe. 17.6 ktoe of the hot water heating programmes in the top 10 are economic, which can also be said of the two space 
heating programmes (technical saving of 16.3 ktoe). Technical and economic energy savings can be had from lighting programmes which 
present 12.5 ktoe savings by 2030. Finally programmes for appliances present 6.5 ktoe of economic savings.  

Water heating programmes form four of the top ten energy efficiency programmes as seen in Figure A5.25. All of programmes have a high 
likelihood of success (scoring between 3.6 – 4.8), owing to high political feasibility and low complexity of ESOs. The programme with the 
highest chance to succeed of the top 10 are lighting programmes in multi-family and single homes with a score of 4.8. 

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is also lighting in multi-family apartments with a CCE of 1.05 cent/kWh. Lighting 
programmes in single-family homes have a CCE of 1.48 cent/kWh. The least cost-effective programmes are RRP hot water heating based 
with a maximum CCE of 30.80 cent/kWh in multi-family homes and 25.34 cent/kWh for single-family homes.  

August 2020  

200 

 
 
 
 
Figure A5.25 

Top energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Cyprus in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A5.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Hot water heating. 7 of the top 10 ESOs reflect energy savings in hot water heating energy end-use. This is because of the low current 

uptake of such technologies (10% - 17%) and high future uptakes. This presents 36.7 ktoe of energy savings within this energy end-use.  

■  Lighting present 9.3 ktoe of energy savings through the installation of LEDs from incandescent. This is because of the low uptake of 

high efficiency lighting within Cypris and high future uptake. 

August 2020  

201 

 
 
 
 
■  Mixed End Use Net-zero-ready homes ESOs applies to both space heating and hot water heating energy end-uses, which present 6.3 

ktoe savings by 2030. Energy efficient homes provide 3.1 ktoe of technical potential across space heating and cooling and water cooling. 

Table A5.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector for Cyprus in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

Residential Lighting Efficiency from Incand. 

Lighting 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Heat Pump Water Heater  

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating, 
Space heating 
Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash 

Hot water heating 

Water Heater Replacement 

DHW Tank Insulation 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code) 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Space heating, Hot 
water heating, 
Cooling 

9.3 

7.9 

6.3 

5.8 

5.4 

5.0 

4.5 

4.1 

3.8 

3.1 

1% 

10% 

0% 

17% 

17% 

17% 

13% 

17% 

17% 

0% 

51% 

100% 

48% 

94% 

50% 

57% 

100% 

94% 

94% 

40% 

A5.2.2 Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A5.4 The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within lighting, water heating and space heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A5.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Cyprus 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

12.6 

5.91 

Yes 

August 2020  

202 

 
 
 
Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Water Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Refrigeration 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - IT & Multimedia 

Private and Public Offices - RPP - Space Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - RPP - Water Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Lighting 

8.8 

7.2 

5.4 

3.8 

2.7 

2.6 

1.8 

1.4 

1.3 

6.43 

2.14 

50.10 

2.78 

48.65 

20.31 

14.18 

0.12 

6.33 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Lighting programmes within wholesale and retail and private and public offices present the most technical and economic energy savings 
within the commercial sector (21.4 ktoe). Hotels & restaurants also provide a lighting energy efficiency technical and economic potential of 
1.3 ktoe. There is a technical potential of 9.9 ktoe for space heating-based programmes, however this is not evaluated as being economic. 
Water heating programmes account for 7.1 ktoe technical and economic energy savings. Finally, 2.6 ktoe can be achieved through 
refrigeration and IT & Multimedia programmes.  

August 2020  

203 

 
 
 
Lighting programmes form 6 of the top 10 energy efficiency programmes as seen in Figure A5.26. Three lighting programmes replace two 
space heating and one water heating programme which are in Table A5.4. Lighting programmes alongside Offices IT & Multimedia have the 
highest likelihood of success with a score of 4.5. All of programmes have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.4 – 4.5), owing to 
high political feasibility and low complexity of ESOs. The bottom three most likely to succeed among the top ten is comprised of one each 
from space heating, refrigeration and water heating with scores of 3.4 – 3.8. 

Despite being deemed unlikely to succeed, the most cost-effective programmes among the top ten are those Hospitality Water Heating and 
Refrigeration programmes, with CCEs of 2.1 and 2.8 cent/kWh, respectively. Lighting programmes have CCEs ranging from 5.9 – 6.5 
cent/kWh. The least cost-effective programme is Offices space heating-based with a CCE of 50.1 cent/kWh. 

Figure A5.26 

Top technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Cyprus in 2030 

August 2020  

204 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A5.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Lighting.  6 of the top 10 ESOs reflect energy savings in the lighting energy end-use. This is because of the low current uptake of 

current technologies (0% - 1%) and high future uptakes (100%). Energy savings from controls-based lighting ESOs (number 1 and 3 in 
Table A5.5) present technical energy savings of 6.4 ktoe by 2030. The remaining ESOs focus on improving efficiency in lighting 
technology which presents 9.5 ktoe by 2030. 

■  Water heating. Water heating ESOs present 3.2 ktoe of energy savings through the installation of faucet aerators. New constructions 

(40% better) and advanced controllers also present energy savings for both space heating and water heating resulting in a combined 5.6 
ktoe energy savings.  

Table A5.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector for Cyprus in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category  Technical Potential Energy 

Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Faucet Aerators 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W (Against 250W baseline) 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W (Against 200W baseline) 

Lighting 

Water Heating 

Lighting 

Space Heating, 
Water Heating 
Lighting 

Space Heating, 
Water Heating 
Lighting 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 150 W (Against 400W baseline) 

Lighting 

Commercial Door Air Infiltration Heat Pump Heating 

Space Heating 

10 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 150 W (Against 320W baseline) 

Lighting 

A5.2.3 Industrial  

3.3 

3.2 

3.1 

3.1 

2.6 

2.6 

2.4 

2.4 

2.2 

2.1 

0% 

17% 

0% 

0% 

1% 

0% 

1% 

1% 

17% 

1% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

33% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A5.6 The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within process heating and machine drives quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

205 

 
 
 
Table A5.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Cyprus 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Non-Metallic Minerals - RPP - Process Heating 

17.3 

Food and Tobacco - RPP - Process Heating 

Other Industry - RPP - Process Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Other   - Process Heating 

5.6 

3.5 

2.8 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Electricity - Process Heating  1.7 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Electricity - Machine drives 

1.2 

Food and Tobacco - Other   - Process Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - RPP - Process 
Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - RPP - Process Specific 

Food and Tobacco - Electricity - Process Heating 

1.0 

0.8 

0.7 

0.7 

0.43 

0.51 

0.43 

0.31 

0.68 

2.53 

0.37 

0.42 

258.87 

0.81 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Process heating programmes present the most technical and economic energy savings within the industrial sector (33.2 ktoe). Of the 
savings within process heating, Non-metallic minerals sub-sector represents a significant proportion of the energy saving potential (23.7 ktoe 
of the 35.1 ktoe). Machine drives programmes provides 1.2 ktoe of technical and economic energy saving potential.  

In Figure A5.27, 8 of the top technical programmes are displayed, with the omissions being process specific programme and process 
heating programme. All of programmes shown in Figure A5.27 have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 4.2 – 4.3), owing to high 
political feasibility and low complexity of ESOs within the programme.  

The most cost-effective programme of the top programmes shown in Figure A5.27  is process heating within the non-metallic minerals sub-
sector. The CCE for these programmes is 0.31 - 0.43 cent/kWh for other and RPP fuels respectively. The least cost-effective programme 
within the top 10 is machine drives based with a CCE of 3.06 cent/kWh. However, these programmes are still considered as economic.  

August 2020  

206 

 
 
 
 
Figure A5.27 

Top energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Cyprus in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A5.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process Heating.  All of the top 10 ESOs reflect energy saving in process heating end-use. This is largely because of the high energy 

consumption of this end-use within the sector. Exhaust gas heat recovery for kilns is the top ESO for this sector which presents 4.1 ktoe 
savings by 2030, as this can be applied to the non-metallic minerals sub-sector (largest consumer of energy in industrial sector for 
Cyprus). Flue gas monitoring within kilns and boilers represent 5.3 ktoe energy savings by 2030.  

August 2020  

207 

 
 
 
 
Table A5.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector for Cyprus in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Kiln) 

Process Heating 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Flue gas monitoring (Kiln) 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Boiler combustion air preheat 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Kiln) 

Process Heating 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner (Kiln) 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner 

Process Heating 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

4.1 

3.3 

2.0 

1.9 

1.9 

1.6 

1.6 

1.5 

1.4 

1.4 

5% 

51% 

9% 

58% 

9% 

50% 

50% 

9% 

39% 

60% 

72% 

99% 

73% 

97% 

73% 

93% 

93% 

57% 

90% 

99% 

A5.2.4 Transport  

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A5.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes for private cars, light duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles, quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

208 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A5.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Cyprus 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

13.8 

1.9 

1.5 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport  1.1 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

0.7 

0.5 

0.1 

0.1 

0.1 

0.0 

12.79 

6.29 

6.23 

0.46 

18.52 

1.23 

0.48 

7.13 

0.09 

21.02 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Programmes for private cars total 13.8 ktoe for the transport sector, however only 0.5 ktoe is considered economic and this is for electric 
private cars. 4 of the top 10 programmes focus on light duty vehicles in freight and passenger transport, which total 2.7 ktoe in technical 
energy savings and the majority being economic (2.6 ktoe). The other significant end-use is heavy goods vehicles programmes, which 
presents a technical saving potential of 1.5 ktoe by 2030. 

The top energy efficiency programmes are shown in Figure A5.28. All programmes have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.9 – 
4.7), attributed by good policy measures and the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement as seen 
in Figure A5.28. This is particularly relevant for heavy good vehicles programmes which are the most likely to succeed (score of 4.7). 

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is electricity heavy good vehicles (CCE of 0.48 cent/kWh). The least cost-effective 
programme is light duty vehicles which has a CCE of 18.52 cent/kWh. Private cars with fuelled with fossil fuels have a CCE of 12.8 
cent/kWh.   

August 2020  

209 

 
 
 
 
Figure A5.28 

Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Cyprus in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A5.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private cars. The top ESO is through the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved efficiency). The 

uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 2% with a 21% uptake by 2030 leading to a technical energy saving of 14.3 ktoe. 

■  Light Duty Vehicles. There are 3 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles. They present a technical saving potential 

totalling 2.4 ktoe by 2030. The current uptake for 2020 is evaluated to be 1% with the uptake being 14% by 2030.  

■  Heavy Goods Vehicles. Only two ESOs of the top 10, target energy savings in heavy goods vehicles which present technical energy 

savings of 0.7 ktoe by 2030. This is as a result of a low future uptake (6%) for the ESOs in this end-use.  

■ 

August 2020  

210 

 
 
 
 
 
 
ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

Table A5.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector for Cyprus in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

Private cars and public 
road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

Private cars 

Fuel efficient tyres, C1 

Private cars and public 
road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

Heavy goods vehicles 

10 

Fuel efficient tyres, C2 

Heavy goods vehicles 
and light duty vehicles 

5.8 

4.4 

4.1 

1.2 

1.1 

0.8 

0.6 

0.4 

0.3 

0.3 

2% 

2% 

2% 

0% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

0% 

21% 

21% 

21% 

6% 

14% 

14% 

14% 

6% 

6% 

2% 

August 2020  

211 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A5.3  Recommendations 

A5.3.1 Policy Review 

In its draft NECP, Cyprus targeted 2.6 Mtoe primary and 2.2 Mtoe final energy consumption by 2030. The Commission commented that this 
was unambitious, and policies and measures should be increased. It recommended that the contribution of energy efficient policies to the 
final energy consumption is better quantified.  

Transport is a challenge for Cyprus and its energy consumption. It was noted in the NECP that this sector faces infrastructure constraints12. 
The Commission felt that detail was lacking for planned and exiting policies and measures in transport, of which there are 14. 

In March 2019 it was announced that the Ministries of Transport and Energy are working together on a combined support scheme for 
sustainable transport. The scheme will incentivise the purchase of new electric and hybrid vehicles when you trade in an older model. It will 
also include grants for roof-mounted photovoltaics for vehicle charging13.  

The number of electric vehicles currently in Cyprus remains negligible: 58 in the first trimester of 201914. 

Cyprus has a national strategy for the development of public transport system, launched in 2010. This policy is ongoing, but an impact 
evaluation has not yet taken place. The strategy is needed to develop what is a very limited public transport sector. Cyprus has no rail 
infrastructure old buses that do not run on main intercity routes. The use of private cars is very high in the country.  

Regarding buildings, policies and measures to support a coherent, long-term renovation strategy were not detailed enough and their 
estimated energy savings and assessment plan could be improved. In March 2019, the Ministry of Energy, Commerce, Industry and Tourism 
announced a ‘Support scheme to encourage the use of renewable energy systems and energy saving in residential buildings’15. This EUR 
24.5 mil grant scheme provides up to EUR 1500 for insulation and/or photovoltaic systems. The scheme closed to applications on December 
2019 after being extended and the scheme will address the little thermal insulation on Cyrus’ existing building stock.  

Cyprus is heavily dependent on oil and is therefore working to diversify its energy mix. It is exploring natural gas reserves in its Exclusive 
Economic Zone and creating infrastructure required to import liquified natural gas.  

12 Commission Staff Working Document, European Commission, 18.6.2019, Brussels, SWD(2019) 223 final https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/cy_swd_en.pdf 
[Accessed 10/12/2019] 
13 Promotion plan for electric and hybrid cars , Philenews, March 2019 http://www.philenews.com/eidiseis/technologia/article/670329/schedio-proothisis-ilektrikon-kai-ybridikon-
aftokiniton [Accessed 19/12/2019] 
14 How many e-car charging stations to expect https://www.brief.com.cy/analyseis/toyrismos-synehizontai-ta-rekor-afixeon [Accessed 19/12/2019] 
15 Extension of the Sponsorship Plan to encourage the use of RES and Energy Saving in housing, Ministry of Energy, Commerce and Industry 
http://www.mcit.gov.cy/mcit/EnergySe.nsf/All/0FC48E2E6A8BBFECC225842A00359D72?OpenDocument [Accessed 19/12/2019] 

August 2020  

212 

 
 
 
                                                
A5.3.2 Policy and Measures Analysis 

Cyprus has 22 policies and measures related to energy efficiency. Many measures address multiple sectors. 

There are 12 residential measures, of which four are regulatory. Only 3 of the 12 measures are implemented or adopted, whereas the others 
are planned or provisional. The residential sector could be strengthened with more implemented residential policies. Generally, residential 
policies are not well linked to one another, or to policy packages. However, they provide persistent savings. 

There are 12 measures relating to the industrial sector, 3 of which are implemented, and the rest planned. Some of these measures cover 
multiple sectors including residential. Industrial sector policies and measures are in general successful in avoiding negative side effects, 
promoting positive side effects, and have been developed based on previous experience.  

There are 17 measures which address the commercial sector, as well as addressing other sectors. Of these, four are implemented and five 
are at provisional stage. Cyprus has a range of measures addressing this area, however in general they are not well linked. On the positive 
side, the policies provide high savings.  

In the transport sector there are five policies which address energy efficiency.  Only two of these are regulatory and the rest are educational 
and fiscal. All policies concerning transport are planned or provisional. Policies are not particularly strong and are not interlinked within a 
policy package. 

A5.3.3 Recommendations 

To support the Commission’s recommendation of measures to implement a long-term renovation strategy for buildings, Cyprus could exploit 
the large economic potential in lighting for residential properties. From 2041, space heating for the residential sector becomes the second 
largest area of economic potential. Measures should target both multifamily apartments and single-family houses, as these have a fairly 
equal share through to 2050. Table A5.10 shows that installing low-flow shower heads could contribute 7.9 ktoe of technical potential energy 
savings by 2030. Switching incandescent lighting to LED has the greatest technical potential for Cyprus as this assumes a 2030 uptake of 
100%.  

Concerning the commercial sector, as shown in Table A5.11, wholesale & retail trade hold the largest technical and economic potential for 
Cyprus. This is followed by private and public offices, and hotels & restaurants, which the country could develop measures specifically for. 
Similar to the residential sector, hot water  heating holds the second largest technical and economic potential for commercial.  

August 2020  

213 

 
 
 
Table A5.10 

Top 10 ESOs for Cyprus by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Residential Lighting Efficiency from 

Lighting 

Incand. 

Residential  Low-Flow Shower Head 

Residential  Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Residential  Heat Pump Water Heater  

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating, 
Space heating 

Hot water heating 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

Residential  Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Hot water heating 

Residential  Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Hot water heating 

Residential  Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash 

Hot water heating 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (3%) 

 Private cars,  Public 
road transport 

10 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (4%) 

 Private cars 

9.3 

7.9 

6.3 

5.8 

5.8 

5.4 

5.0 

4.5 

4.4 

4.1 

1% 

10% 

0% 

17% 

2% 

17% 

17% 

13% 

2% 

2% 

100% 

51% 

48% 

21% 

94% 

50% 

57% 

100% 

100% 

21% 

Table A5.11 

Top 10 programmes for Cyprus by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

20.2 

Industrial 

Non-Metallic Minerals - RPP - Process Heating 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

17.3 

17.0 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars  13.8 

30.80 

0.43 

25.34 

12.79 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

August 2020  

214 

 
 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Commercial  Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

Residential 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water 
heating 

Commercial  Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

12.6 

10.2 

9.5 

8.8 

Residential  Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating  8.0 

10 

Commercial  Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Water Heating 

7.2 

5.91 

10.57 

23.28 

6.43 

17.34 

2.14 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

A large proportion of Cypriots own a private car, therefore the largest technical potential for Cyprus is in private cars, of the sub-sector 
passenger transport. 13.8 ktoe of technical potential is attributed to private cars in 2030. Cyprus should therefore consider measures and 
policies targeted at light duty vehicles (i.e. vans), followed by heavy goods vehicles. The Ministry for Transport in Cyrus announced a EUR 3 
mil vehicle scrappage scheme in December 2019. The scheme covers commercial vans (light duty vehicles) and incentivises the 
replacement of at least a 15-year-old vehicle with either a new internal combustion engine saloon car or a new electric car or van. 

To meet its 2030 energy efficiency targets, Cyprus should: 

1.  Implement policy and measures to encourage incandescent lighting to LED upgrades in residential settings, but also commercial and 

industrial. 

2.  Implement more residential policies, including a long-term renovation strategy.  

3.  Progress transport policies and measures from planning/provisional stages to implementation. Target private cars. 

August 2020  

215 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Annex 6  Czech Republic 

A6.1  Summary 

Table A6.1 

Summary of modelling results for Czech Republic 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

7010.5 

3128.4 

7732.7 

5742.7 

23614.2 

 1,830  

 771  

 1,909  

 551  

 5,061  

 194  

 184  

 1,849  

 246  

 2,473  

26% 

25% 

25% 

10% 

21% 

3% 

6% 

24% 

4% 

10% 

2,006 

August 2020  

216 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A6.1.2 Residential 

Figure A6.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating and hot water 
heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (1055.9 
ktoe) and hot water heating (719 ktoe).  

Figure A6.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

217 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 1004.5 ktoe. 

Figure A6.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

218 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Space 
heating and hot water heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use hot 
water heating (109.1 ktoe) and lighting (31.7 ktoe).   

Figure A6.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

219 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 154.7 ktoe. 

Figure A6.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

220 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 5180.4 ktoe (26% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 6816.3 ktoe (3% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 7010.5 ktoe.   

Figure A6.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Czech Republic 

August 2020  

221 

 
 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Czech Republic ’s final energy consumption by 1830.0 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A6.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (60.2%), Electricity (17.7%) and 
other (12.0%) sector contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A6.6 

Primary energy impacts for Czech Republic based on technical potential for residential sector

August 2020  

222 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A6.1.3 Commercial   

Figure A6.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (473.7 ktoe) and 
water heating (202.2 ktoe).   

Figure A6.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

223 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other commercial 
and private and public offices contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, other commercial has a potential savings of 286 ktoe 
and private and public offices have a potential savings of 27 ktoe and wholesale and retail have potential energy savings of 115 ktoe. 

Figure A6.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

224 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Water heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are water heating 
(97.9 ktoe) and lighting (51.8 ktoe).   

Figure A6.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

225 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other commercial 
contains the highest potential over time until 2042. After 2042, hotels and restaurants contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, 
potential economic energy savings of other commercial are 64.6 ktoe, followed by private and public office (41.8 ktoe). 

Figure A6.10 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

226 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 2357.1 ktoe (25% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 2944.6 ktoe (6% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 3128.4 ktoe. 

Figure A6.11 

Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Czech Republic 

August 2020  

227 

 
 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Czech Republic ’s final energy consumption by 771.2 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A6.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (49.2%), natural gas (35.1%) and 
other (14.4%) sector contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A6.12 

Primary energy impacts for Czech Republic based on technical potential for commercial sector

August 2020  

228 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A6.1.4 Industrial 

Figure A6.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (1417 ktoe) 
and machine drives (279 ktoe).   

Figure A6.13 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on industrial energy end uses

Figure A6.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry and 
iron and steel contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, other industry has a potential savings of 460 ktoe, and iron and steel 
have potential energy savings of 425 ktoe. 

August 2020  

229 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.14 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on industrial sub-sectors

Figure A6.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (1417 ktoe) and machine drives (279 ktoe).   

August 2020  

230 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.15 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on industrial energy end uses

Figure A6.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry ad 
iron and steel contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of other industry are 458 ktoe, followed by 
iron and steel (402 ktoe). 

August 2020  

231 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.16 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on industrial sub-sectors

Figure A6.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 5823.7 ktoe (25% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 5883.5 ktoe (24% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 7732.7 ktoe. 

August 2020  

232 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Czech Republic

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Czech Republic ’s final energy consumption by 1908.93 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A6.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (31%), electricity (48%), coal 
(12%) sectors contains the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

233 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.18 

Primary energy impacts for Czech Republic based on technical potential for industrial sector 

A6.1.5 Transport 

Figure A6.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars and heavy goods 
vehicles contain the highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are private 
cars (269 ktoe) and heavy goods vehicles (163 ktoe).   

August 2020  

234 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.19 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on transport energy end uses

Figure A6.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passport transport has a potential savings of 342 ktoe and freight 
transport has potential energy savings of 208 ktoe. 

August 2020  

235 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.20 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A6.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are heavy 
good vehicles (163 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (85 ktoe).   

August 2020  

236 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.21 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on transport energy end uses

Figure A6.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Freight transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of freight transport is (208 ktoe), followed by passenger 
transport (40 ktoe). 

August 2020  

237 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.22 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Czech Republic based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A6.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical energy 
consumption scenario is 5192.1 ktoe (10% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 5456.8 ktoe (5% energy saving 
against BAU), and actual BAU is 5742.69 ktoe. 

August 2020  

238 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.23 

Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Czech Republic 

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Czech Republic ’s final energy consumption by 550.58 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A6.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (88.55%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

239 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A6.24 

Primary energy impacts for Czech Republic based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

240 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A6.2  Discussion 

A6.2.1 Residential  

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A6.2.The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies with space heating, hot water heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A6.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Czech Republic 

Programme Name 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

Single family houses - Coal - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Coal - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

372.8 

327.0 

289.0 

237.8 

90.7 

85.0 

71.3 

66.8 

66.0 

46.9 

8.42 
8.38 
22.01 
27.10 
3.86 
3.89 
3.86 
3.89 
14.59 
19.85 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Space heating programmes form 6 of the top 10 programmes for the residential sector and also have the largest energy saving potential, with 
1013.6  ktoe.  However,  only  875.5  ktoe  is  evaluated  to  be  economic.  Hot  water  heating  programmes  account  for  the  remaining  potential, 
totalling 639.6 ktoe of energy saving potential, of which only 112.8 ktoe was found to be economic. Natural gas space heating programme for 
single family houses represents the highest potential (totalling to 372.8 ktoe). 

August 2020  

241 

 
 
 
Among the top 10, programmes related to hot water heating for both single family houses (score 3.3) and multi-family apartments (score 3.6) 
have a high likelihood of success. Programmes related to electric lighting in multi-family apartments have the highest likelihood of success 
with a score of 4.5. 

Programmes related to electric lighting in multi-family apartments are also the most cost-effective among the top 10 programmes, with CCE 
of 0.77 cent/kWh. Natural gas hot water heating with multi-family apartment is the least cost effective (CCE of 27.10 cent/kWh) 

Figure A6.25 

Top technical energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Czech Republic in 2030 

August 2020  

242 

 
 
 
 
The top ESOS can be seen in Table A6.3. These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■ Multiple end-use. Energy-efficient homes (20% above code) are design ESOs related to multiple energy end use (space heating, hot 
water heating and cooling); net-zero-ready homes stand to reduce hot water heating and space heating. Combined, these have a technical 
saving potential totalling 261.2 ktoe by 2030 owing to the very low current uptake of the ESOs. 

■ Hot water heating. The two hot water heating ESOs present a technical saving potential totalling 189.4 ktoe by 2030. Low flow shower 
head, and wastewater heat recovery systems have a relatively low current uptake (10%) and the remaining potential by 2030 is high (43%-
100%).  

■ Space heating and cooling. The six remaining ESOs present a technical saving potential totalling 649.3 ktoe by 2030. The current market 
uptake  for  thermal  curtains  for  thermal  curtains  and  condensing  gas  boilers  are  relatively  low  (7%-10%).  The  projected  uptake  of  such 
technologies by 2030 is significant (48% - 60%). 

Table A6.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector for Czech Republic in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Thermal Curtains 

Wall Insulation 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Air Infiltration 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Space heating 

Space heating, Cooling 

Hot water heating 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code)  Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Space heating, Cooling 

Condensing Gas Boilers 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Space heating 

Hot water heating 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

167.9 

138.7 

127.9 

120.7 

113.1 

107.4 

93.3 

88.7 

73.5 

68.6 

0% 

7% 

47% 

10% 

47% 

47% 

0% 

47% 

10% 

10% 

48% 

47% 

80% 

43% 

84% 

80% 

40% 

80% 

60% 

100% 

243 

August 2020  

 
 
 
A6.2.2 Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A6.4. Technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on water heating and space heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A6.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Czech Republic 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

92.2 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space Heating  70.9 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating 

42.7 

Other Commercial - Other   - Space Heating 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Space Heating 

Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Water Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Other   - Space Heating 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Water Heating 

40.0 

38.0 

36.8 

32.5 

30.8 

28.9 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Water Heating 

26.0 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 
8.92 

12.30 

43.15 

8.92 

42.87 

0.43 

4.49 

12.30 

11.95 

13.92 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Space heating form 7 of the top 10 programmes with technical potential of 347.2 ktoe, however none of these are economic. Water heating 
form the remaining 3 programmes with 91.8 ktoe of energy saving potential. Natural gas water heating in other commercial areas is the only 
economic programme by 2030. 

August 2020  

244 

 
 
 
Figure A6.26 shows that all programmes have a moderate-to-high likelihood to succeed (score 2.8-4.0) owing to the low complexity of the 
ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. Two lighting programmes 
replace two space heating programmes listed in Table A6.4.Space heating programmes have the lowest likelihood of success, with scores of 
2.8-2.9. Lighting programmes have the highest likelihood of success with scores of 4.0. 

Other Commercial natural gas water heating has, by a factor of 10, the best cost-effectiveness of any programme among the top ten, with a 
CCE of 0.43 cent/kWh. Programmes in Offices (excluding lighting) have the lowest cost-effectiveness among the top ten, with CCEs as high 
as 43.15 cent/kWh for electricity space heating, though a much lower 12.3 and 13.9 cent/kWh for natural gas space heating and electricity 
water heating, respectively. 

Figure A6.26 

Top technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Czech Republic in 2030 

August 2020  

245 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A6.5 showing the top ESOs for the sector. For 9 
out of the 10 ESOs the current uptake is less than 10%. These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■ Mixed End-Use: Six ESOs act on some combination of space heating, water heating, and cooling. Together these present a technical saving 
potential totalling 289.1 ktoe by 2030. The current market uptake for these ESOs are low (<10%) but have a high have a future uptake (36%-
100%), apart from high-performance glazing, which already has a moderate uptake of 47%. Building recommissioning (Enhanced) has the 
highest potential saving of 79.3 ktoe with low current uptake but a 100% future uptake by 2030. 

■ Space Heating: Two of the ten ESOs focus solely on Space heating, with a total saving potential of 133.4 ktoe. The top ESO is electric air 
cold  climate  heat  pumps  which  presents  a  technical  saving  potential  totalling  107.4 ktoe  having  a  low  uptake (0%)  but  high future  uptake 
(67%). 

Table A6.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector for Czech Republic in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps 

Space Heating 

115.2 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Commercial Door Air Infiltration Heat Pump 
Heating 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating, Space Cooling 
Space Heating 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting 

High-Performance Glazing 

Space Heating, Space 
Cooling 

84.9 

80.3 

70.2 

52.4 

43.9 

21.5 

18.3 

18.1 

16.1 

0% 

3% 

10% 

3% 

8% 

3% 

8% 

10% 

8% 

47% 

67% 

100% 

100% 

36% 

100% 

36% 

75% 

100% 

100% 

80% 

August 2020  

246 

 
 
 
A6.2.3 Industrial  

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown Table A6.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies with process heating and machine drives, quantified as follows: 

Table A6.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Czech Republic 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Coal - Process Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Coal - Process Heating 

Machinery - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Electricity - Process Heating 

165.1 

161.2 

85.8 

71.4 

67.7 

67.3 

66.9 

65.7 

65.2 

60.3 

0.29 

0.29 

0.29 

1.65 

0.46 

0.29 

0.28 

0.29 

0.34 

0.46 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating programmes form 9 of the top 10 programmes for the industrial sector and also have the largest technical and  economic 
energy saving potential, with 805.2 ktoe. From the top 10 programmes, technical energy and economic energy savings from machine drives 
total 71.4 ktoe.  

All  programmes  shown  in  Figure  A6.27  have  a  high  likelihood  to  succeed  owing  to  the  low  complexity  of  the  ESOs  made  up  within  the 
programme  and  high  political  feasibility  of  implementing  energy  efficiency  measures.  Machine  drives  in  other  industries  has  the  highest 
likelihood with score of 3.8. Electrical process heating in Iron & Steel and other industries programme have a likelihood success score of 3.7.  

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is process heating with fossil fuel-based process heating. It should be noted that all process 
heating programmes within industry have a very low CCE and are all economic. The least cost-effective programme is Machine drives in other 
industries with a CCE of 1.65 cent/kWh.  

August 2020  

247 

 
 
 
 
Figure A6.27 

Top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Czech Republic in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A6.7 showing the top ESOs for the sector. These 
ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■ Process heating form 9 of top 10 ESOs with a cumulative saving potential of 727.2 ktoe. Flue gas monitoring in boilers tops the table with 
127.9 ktoe of saving potential by 2030 along with current uptake of 51% and future uptake of 100%. Boiler/Furnace control ESOs form the 
top 6 measures totalling 553.8 ktoe technical energy savings by 2030. Most of the ESOs pertain to improving efficiency of boilers through 
improved combustion control. Future uptake for 2030 for all ESOs is averaged at more than 90% indicating a good potential. 

■ Machine drive for efficiency control in axial fans has a technical potential of 45.1 ktoe with current uptake of 22% and future uptake of 
100% by 2030. 

August 2020  

248 

 
 
 
 
 
ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake (2030) 

Table A6.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector for Czech Republic in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Furnace) 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Furnace) 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heat Recovery to Preheat Makeup 
Water 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

10 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans) 

Machine drives 

127.9 

90.0 

90.0 

88.5 

83.5 

74.0 

62.8 

60.3 

50.3 

45.1 

51% 

50% 

50% 

37% 

31% 

11% 

60% 

31% 

45% 

22% 

100% 

94% 

94% 

90% 

89% 

79% 

100% 

80% 

91% 

100% 

A6.2.4 Transport  

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A6.8. Th energy saving 
potential mainly lies within programmes for private cars, light duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles, quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

249 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A6.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Czech Republic 

Programme Name 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

264.7 

160.5 

45.0 

39.3 

33.1 

4.1 

2.4 

0.7 

0.4 

0.3 

17.71 

5.27 

6.61 

7.39 

0.27 

2.12 

0.50 

0.07 

9.43 

10.54 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Programmes for private cars total 268.8 ktoe for the transport sector, however only 4.1 ktoe is considered economic and this is for electric 
private cars. Heavy goods vehicles programmes have a technical and economic saving potential of 162.9 ktoe by 2030. 4 of the top 10 
programmes focus on light duty vehicles in freight and passenger transport, which total 85 ktoe technical and economic potential by 2030. 

All programmes shown in Figure A6.28 have a high likelihood to succeed owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the 
programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. Heavy goods vehicles have the most likelihood to 
success with core of 3.7. Electric private cars has the least likelihood of success with score of 3.3. 

Private cars are the least cost effective with CCE of 17.7 cent/kWh and electric public transport for passenger is the most cost effective 
(CCE of 0.27 cent/kWh) 

August 2020  

250 

 
 
 
 
Figure A6.28 

Top technical energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Czech Republic in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A6.9 which shows the top 10 ESOs for the 
sector. These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■ Private cars: The top ESO is through the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved efficiency). The 
uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 5% with a 53% uptake by 2030 leading to a technical energy saving of 293 ktoe. 

■ Heavy Goods Vehicles: They form 4 of the top 10 ESO and present a technical saving potential totalling 138.7 ktoe by 2030. Current 
uptake is low at 4% but expected to reach 40% by 2030. 

August 2020  

251 

 
 
 
 
■ Light Duty Vehicles: They present a technical saving potential totalling 83.6 ktoe by 2030. These ESOs have a higher current uptake 
when compared to private cars, however the future uptake is anticipated to be greater at 70%. 

Table A6.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector for Czech Republic in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

Private cars 

114.0 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

Private cars and public 
road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

Heavy goods vehicles 

97.6 

81.4 

41.8 

38.8 

36.9 

32.3 

26.1 

25.8 

20.6 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

Light duty vehicles 

A6.3  Recommendations 

A6.3.1  Policy Review 

5% 

5% 

5% 

4% 

4% 

7% 

4% 

7% 

4% 

7% 

53% 

53% 

53% 

40% 

40% 

70% 

40% 

70% 

40% 

70% 

The Czech Republic was advised to improve its contribution to energy efficiency in the buildings sector following the submission of its 
draft NECP. The Commission commented that policies and measures beyond 2021 were not sufficiently described. 

August 2020  

252 

 
 
 
The Czech Republic’s updated national energy efficiency action plan (NEEAP), 2017, contains plans for a Building Renovation 
Strategy16. The draft NECP notes that this needs to be updated in 2019 to meet Article 2 Directive 2018/844 - Amendment of Directive 
2010/31/EU on the energy performance of buildings and Directive 2012/27/EU on energy efficiency. 

The OP ŽP is a key energy efficiency programme in the Czech Republic. It targets energy consumption reduction and an increased use 
of renewable energy. Both the renovation of existing public buildings and the development of new public buildings are covered under this 
energy efficiency initiative. Act no 406/200 obligates that new buildings must be nearly-zero energy buildings by 2020.  

Heavy industry, particularly metallurgy and mechanical engineering, is highly prevalent in the Czech Republic. The industrial sector has 
the largest energy intensity for its share of the economy. The Czech Republic has eight measures to address industry. This includes the 
ENERG Programme which provides finance for energy efficiency projects in the industrial sector, among others. Current policies raise 
awareness of energy efficiency in the industrial sector and incite behaviour change.  

In the transport sector, emissions have increased since 2013. Transport 2020+ programme was launched in June 2019 and incentivises 
sustainable transport infrastructure. Operational Programme Transport (OP Transport) addresses energy efficiency in rail, funds the 
development of road infrastructure and funds the renovation of Prague underground. The Ministry of Transport has already approved 55 
rail projects worth over EUR 2 billion17. 

A6.3.2  Policy and Measures Analysis  

The Czech Republic has seven policies concerning energy efficiency. 

In the residential sector there are three measures. They rank well at avoidance of negative side effects and are easily accepted be 
relevant stakeholders. The measures deliver reasonably persistent savings but are weakened by their poor links to other measures and 
policies.  

In the industrial sector there is one measure, which is implemented. It is a planning instrument. Industrial policy in the Czech Republic is 
neither particularly strong nor weak.  

In the commercial sector there are no measures.  

16 Update of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan of the Czech Republic, Ministry of Industry and Trade, April 2017 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/ener-2017-00343-
00-00-en-tra-00.pdf [Accessed 10/12/2019] 
17 https://www.railwaypro.com/wp/czech-republic-approved-rail-projects-valuated-at-eur-2-billion/ 

August 2020  

253 

 
 
 
                                                
In the transport sector there are three measures, all of which are implemented. One measure is economic, regulatory and planning and 
the rest are planning. Measures in the transport sector are generally weak, particularly due to low impact and poor links to other 
measures and policies.  

In addition, there are seven cross-sectoral policies and measures. The majority of the Czech Republic’s policies a generally strong.  

A6.3.3  Recommendations 

In the residential sector, space heating holds the greatest economic potential for the Czech Republic (Table A6.11). Net-zero-ready 
homes and thermal curtains have the largest technical potential of all energy saving opportunities in the Czech Republic. Space heating 
and single-family houses have the greatest technical potential and are most cost-effective of all residential sector programmes (Table 
A6.11). 

In the commercial sector, space heating holds the greatest economic potential in 2030 (92.2 ktoe) (Table A6.11). The largest technical 
potential was in hot water heating showing that there is great potential to reduce energy consumption in all facets of heating.Policies and 
measures should encourage the use of electric air-source heat pumps, as shown in Table A6.10, to provide heating and hot water. 

Table A6.10 

Top 10 ESOs in the Czech Republic by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

August 2020  

Residential  Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

167.9 

Residential 

Thermal Curtains 

Space heating 

Residential  Wall Insulation 

Space heating, Cooling 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Residential  Wastewater Heat Recovery 

Hot water heating 

Systems 

Commercial  Electric Air-Source Cold 

Space Heating 

Climate Heat Pumps 

138.7 

127.9 

127.9 

120.7 

115.2 

0% 

7% 

47% 

51% 

10% 

0% 

100% 

48% 

100% 

80% 

43% 

53% 

254 

 
 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

7 

8 

9 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency 
(5%) 

 Private cars 

Residential  Air Infiltration 

Space heating, Cooling 

Residential  Basement Wall Insulation (R-

Space heating 

12) 

114.0 

113.1 

107.4 

10 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency 
(3%) 

 Private cars,  Public road transport  97.6 

5% 

47% 

47% 

5% 

100% 

84% 

67% 

80% 

Table A6.11 

Top 10 Programmes in the Czech Republic by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space 

372.8 

heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - 

327.0 

Space heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot 

289.0 

water heating 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - 
Private cars 

264.7 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot 

237.8 

water heating 

8.42 

8.38 

22.01 

17.71 

27.10 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

August 2020  

255 

 
 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Industrial 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

Industrial 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

165.1 

161.2 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy 
goods vehicles 

160.5 

Commercial  Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Space 

92.2 

Heating 

10 

Residential  Single family houses - Other - Space 

90.7 

heating 

0.29 

0.29 

5.27 

8.92 

3.86 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Process heating is the end use with the largest economic potential (1417 ktoe by 2030) (Table A6.11). Heating holds large potential for 
energy efficiency measures, and the Czech Republic’s high rate of activity in metallurgy and mechanical engineering reflects the large 
potential in process heating. There is no one subsector that presents as having significantly larger technical or economic potential than 
the others.  Programmes concerning other industrial, iron and steel and process heating supplied by natural gas are the most cost-
effective and hold the most technical potential in this sector (Table A6.11 

In the transport sector it is most cost effective to address freight transport, in particularly heavy goods vehicles running on 
gasoline/diesel. This holds 160.5 ktoe of technical potential by 2030 (Table A6.11) 

To reach its 2030 energy efficiency targets, the Czech Republic should: 

1.  Continue with the policy to ensure all new homes are net-zero-ready-homes by 2020. 
2.  Plan in further detail the policies to target buildings, in particular the residential sector. Implement measures to reduce hot water 

consumption e.g. flue gas monitoring. 

3.  Plan and implement cost-effective policies and measures in the industrial sector, taking advantage of opportunities in its metallurgy 

and mechanical engineering sectors. 

August 2020  

256 

 
 
 
 
Annex 7  Denmark 

A7.1  Summary 

Table A7.1 

Summary of modelling results for Denmark 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

4,467 

2,048 

2,445 

3,771 

12,732 

 891  

 485  

 593  

 695  

 692  

 288  

 575  

 695  

 2,664  

 2,250  

20% 

24% 

24% 

18% 

21% 

15% 

14% 

24% 

18% 

18% 

1,166 

August 2020  

257 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A7.1.2 Residential 

Figure A7.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating and hot water 
heating and contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating 
(501.8 ktoe) and hot water heating (350.1 ktoe).  

Figure A7.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

258 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A7.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 539.9 ktoe. 

Figure A7.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

259 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A7.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Hot 
water heating and space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use toe) 
and hot water heating (151.0 ktoe) and space heating (501.0 ktoe).   

Figure A7.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

260 

 
 
 
 
Figure A7.4provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 418.2 ktoe. 

Figure A7.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

261 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A7.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 3575.8 ktoe (20% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 3774.9 ktoe (15% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 4467.2. ktoe. 

Figure A7.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Denmark 

August 2020  

262 

 
 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Denmark’s final energy consumption by 891.4 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A7.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. natural gas (33%), electricity (28%), and 
Other (30%) sector contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A7.6 

Primary energy impacts for Denmark based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

263 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A7.1.3 Commercial   

Figure A7.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (237.5 ktoe) and 
lighting (115.1 ktoe).   

Figure A7.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

264 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A7.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, wholesale and retail have a potential savings of 168.7 ktoe and private 
and public offices have a potential savings of 113 ktoe. 

Figure A7.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

265 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A7.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Space heating, lighting, and water heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by 
end use are lighting (115.1 ktoe) and space heating (105.8 ktoe). 

Figure A7.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

266 

 
 
 
 
Figure A7.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of wholesale and retail trade are 96.2 ktoe, 
followed by private and public office (68.1 ktoe). 

Figure A7.10 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

267 

 
 
 
 
Figure A7.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1563 ktoe (24% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1759.8 ktoe (14% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 2047.6 ktoe. 

Figure A7.11 

Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Denmark 

August 2020  

268 

 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Denmark’s final energy consumption by 484.6 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A7.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (70%), other (23%) and natural 
gas (6%) sector contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A7.12 

Primary energy impacts for Denmark based on technical potential for commercial sector

August 2020  

269 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A7.1.4 Industrial 

Figure A7.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (438.9 ktoe) 
and machine drives (90 ktoe).   

Figure A7.13 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on industrial energy end uses

Figure A7.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Food and Tobacco 
and other industry contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, food and tobacco has a potential savings of 147.8 ktoe and other 
industry 128.4 ktoe. 

Figure A7.14 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

270 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A7.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (438.9 ktoe) and machine drives (90 ktoe).   

August 2020  

271 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A7.15 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A7.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry 
and food and tobacco contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of food and tobacco (146.5 ktoe), 
followed by other industry are 126.3 ktoe. 

August 2020  

272 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A7.16 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on industrial sub-sectors

August 2020  

273 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A7.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical energy 
consumption scenario is 1825.5 ktoe (24% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1870 ktoe (24% energy saving 
against BAU), and actual BAU is 2445.4 ktoe.  

Figure A7.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Denmark

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Denmark’s final energy consumption by 592.9 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

274 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A7.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (25%), electricity (53%), RPP 
(14%) sectors contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A7.18 

Primary energy impacts for Denmark based on technical potential for industrial sector 

August 2020  

275 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A7.1.5 Transport 

Figure A7.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the highest 
potential energy savings over time, followed by heavy goods vehicles. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are 
private cars (299 ktoe) and heavy goods vehicles (210 ktoe). Figure A7.19  

Figure A7.19 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on transport energy end uses

August 2020  

276 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.23 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passport transport has a potential savings of 455 ktoe and freight 
transport has potential energy savings of 240 ktoe. 

Figure A7.20 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on transport sub-sectors

August 2020  

277 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A7.21provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Private cars and heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end 
use are private cars (299 ktoe) and heavy goods vehicles (210 ktoe).   

Figure A7.21 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on transport energy end uses

August 2020  

278 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A7.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of passenger transport is 455 ktoe, followed 
by freight transport 240 ktoe. 

Figure A7.22 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Denmark based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A7.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical energy 
consumption scenario is 3076.7 ktoe (18% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 3076.7 ktoe (18% energy saving 
against BAU), and actual BAU is 3771.4 ktoe. 

August 2020  

279 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A7.23 

Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Denmark 

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Denmark ’s final energy consumption by 694.66 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A7.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (98.33%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

280 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A7.24 

Primary energy impacts for Denmark based on technical potential for transport sector 

A7.2  Discussion 

A7.2.1 Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A7.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies with space heating and hot water heating quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

281 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A7.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Denmark 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Other - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

141.5 

109.0 

104.7 

91.6 

75.4 

60.5 

52.7 

47.1 

30.0 

28.3 

1.70 

1.72 

4.00 

10.99 

3.98 

13.53 

1.32 

7.17 

10.93 

3.98 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Five of the top ten energy efficiency programmes are based around space heating and present the largest technical and economic energy 
saving potential with 458.7 ktoe saved by 2030. Hot water heating programmes form the other five of the top ten programmes for the 
residential sector with 282.0 ktoe energy savings by 2030. Only 99.8 ktoe however is evaluated to be economic for the hot water energy 
end-use. 

August 2020  

282 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Water heating programmes formed four of the top ten programmes overall, as shown in Figure A7.25, down one from the top energy 
efficiency programmes for the sector ranked by technical potential. Space heating programmes form four of the top ten energy efficiency 
programmes in Figure A7.25. All of programmes have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.3 – 4.5), owing to high political 
feasibility and low complexity of ESOs. The programmes with the highest chance to succeed of the top 10 are lighting programmes with a 
score of 4.5. The programme with the lowest chance to succeed is multifamily space heating (Other energy source) with a score of 3.3. 

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is electric lighting in multi-family apartments with a CCE of 0.48 cent/kWh. The least cost-
effective programmes are natural gas hot water heating with a maximum CCE of 13.53 cent/kWh in multi-family homes. 

Figure A7.25 

Top energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Denmark in 2030 

August 2020  

283 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A7.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating. Installation of thermal curtains for windows present 86.3 ktoe in technical energy savings by 2030. This is on the basis of 
an 81% uptake by 2030 of the technology. Basement wall insulation ESO also supports thermal curtains within this end-use leading to a 
total energy saving potential of 138.2 ktoe. 

■  Hot water heating. Three of the top 10 ESOs reflect energy savings in hot water heating energy end-use. This presents 156.2 ktoe of 
energy savings within this energy end-use. Net-zero-ready homes ESOs applies to both space heating and hot water heating energy 
end-uses, which present 62.5 ktoe savings by 2030. 

■  Space heating and cooling. Three ESOs look to address energy saving opportunities in both space heating and cooling energy end-

uses. These are mainly building envelope-based improvements such as wall insulation, high performance windows and reduction of air 
infiltration, leading to an energy saving of 193.0 ktoe by 2030.  

Table A7.3 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector for Denmark in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future 
uptake 
(2030) 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Thermal Curtains 

Wall Insulation 

Air Infiltration 

Hot water heating 

Space heating 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Space heating 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Space heating, Cooling 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code)  Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling 

10 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Hot water heating 

86.3 

80.4 

74.1 

65.8 

62.5 

57.8 

53.1 

40.2 

31.5 

29.7 

41% 

41% 

50% 

50% 

2% 

50% 

50% 

10% 

2% 

41% 

74% 

81% 

83% 

87% 

50% 

83% 

83% 

100% 

42% 

81% 

August 2020  

284 

 
 
 
A7.2.2 Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A7.4 The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within lighting and space heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A7.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Denmark 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

51.2 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Other   - Space Heating 

44.5 

Private and Public Offices - Other   - Space Heating 

34.5 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating  19.9 

Other Commercial - Other   - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

19.2 

18.4 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Space Heating  17.2 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Lighting 

Health - Electricity - Lighting 

Health - Other   - Space Heating 

14.3 

13.3 

13.2 

3.24 

2.17 

5.50 

19.14 

4.02 

3.50 

19.14 

3.49 

3.53 

2.22 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

The energy end use which delivers the most technical energy savings potential is space heating based as they comprise the remaining 6 out 
of 10 programmes and lead to 148.5 ktoe of energy savings by 2030. However, only 37.1 ktoe of the space heating programmes are 
evaluated to be economic by 2030. Lighting programmes within the commercial sector present 97.3 ktoe of technical and economic energy 
savings. 

August 2020  

285 

 
 
 
Figure A7.26 shows the top ten programmes by overall score. All of programmes have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.2 – 
4), owing to high political feasibility and low complexity of ESOs. This figure includes three fewer space heating programmes, compared to 
Table A7.4; three lighting and one water heating programme replace those. Lighting programmes form the top six programmes among the 
top ten, ranked by likelihood of success, having scores of 4.0. Space heating programmes have the lowest likelihood of success with scores 
of 2.8 – 3.0. 

The cost effectiveness of space heating programmes has meant that only 3 have made it in being the top energy efficiency programmes for 
the sector. The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is space heating in wholesale & retail trade sub-sector with a CCE of 2.2 
cent/kWh. In Table A7.4, this was evaluated to be uneconomic, as the fuel tariff for the “other” fuel was lower than the CCE for the 
programme. This is closely followed by the lighting programmes which have average CCE’s of 3.4 cent/kWh. The least cost-effective 
programme is the sole water heating programme to make the top ten, with a CCE of 6.1 cent/kWh.  

Figure A7.26 

Top energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Denmark in 2030 

August 2020  

286 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A7.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating. The top ESO for the commercial sector is based on space heating end-use and involves the deployment of heat pumps. 
This would present energy savings of 64.7 ktoe by 2030. The low current uptake of the technology (3%) and high future uptake (70%) 
have resulted in this being the number 1 ESO for the commercial sector. 

■  Space heating and hot water heating / Multiple. 4 ESOs can be applied to both space heating and water heating energy end-uses, 
with an additional ESO being applied to space cooling (Adaptive Thermostats). ESOs with at least 2 energy end-uses comprise of a 
combination of controls, building recommissioning and new builds. Energy savings from these ESOs total 124.4 ktoe of which 63.8 ktoe 
is from the construction of new more energy efficient buildings. Controls based measures account for 41.3 ktoe energy savings by 2030.  

■  Lighting. Despite three lighting programmes being present in Figure A7.26, there are only 2 lighting ESOs represented in Table A7.5. 

These lighting measures are controlled based and present energy savings of 47 ktoe by 2030. 

Table A7.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector for Denmark in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future 
uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps  Space Heating 

64.7 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating  39.3 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

38.2 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating  26.6 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating  24.5 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space Heating, Water Heating  19.3 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating, Space Cooling 

18.7 

18.3 

14.6 

10.0 

10 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W (Against 
250W baseline) 

Lighting 

3% 

59% 

41% 

24% 

59% 

59% 

24% 

24% 

24% 

50% 

70% 

92% 

100% 

100% 

92% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

91% 

100% 

August 2020  

287 

 
 
 
 
A7.2.3 Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A7.6.Energy saving potential 
mainly lies within process heating area as follows: 

Table A7.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Denmark 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

46.6 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - RPP - Process Heating 

39.2 

29.4 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

29.2 

Other Industry - RPP - Process Heating 

24.7 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

24.1 

Food and Tobacco - Electricity - Machine drives 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Non-Metallic Minerals - RPP - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - Electricity - Process Heating 

20.1 

19.7 

18.4 

18.2 

0.34 

0.29 

0.34 

0.29 

0.29 

0.24 

1.99 

1.65 

0.29 

0.55 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The top 10 programmes present economic energy savings within the industrial sector of 269.7 ktoe. Process heating programmes contribute 
85.5% of energy savings found in the top 10 (229.9 ktoe). Food and Tobacco sub-sector represents a significant proportion of the energy 
saving potential (114.4 ktoe of the 269.7 ktoe). Machine drives programmes provides 38.1 ktoe of technical and economic energy saving 
potential.  

All of programmes shown in Figure A7.27 have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 4.5 – 4.6), owing to high political feasibility and 
low complexity of ESOs within the programme. The programmes with the highest likelihood of success are the electricity-based machine 
drives programmes with a score of 4.6. 

August 2020  

288 

 
 
 
The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 programmes as shown in Figure A7.27 is process heating within the petroleum refineries 
sub-sector with a cost of 0.24 cent/kWh. However, the least cost-effective programme of the top 10 has a score of 1.99 cent/kWh, and so it 
can be concluded that all of the top 10 programmes are extremely cost - effective. 

Figure A7.27 

Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Denmark in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A7.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process Heating.  All of the top 10 ESOs reflect energy saving in process heating end-use. This is largely because of the high energy 
consumption of this end-use within the sector. Measures focussing on boilers and furnaces represent 169.8 ktoe energy savings by 
2030.  

August 2020  

289 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A7.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector for Denmark in 2030 

Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020) 

Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Flue gas monitoring 
(boiler) 

Advanced Heating and 
Process Control 
(Furnace) 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Flue gas monitoring 
(Furnace) 

Steam Trap Survey and 
Repair 

Exhaust Gas Heat 
Recovery (Furnace) 

Process Heat Recovery 
to Preheat Makeup Water 

Advanced Heating and 
Process Control (Oven) 

High Efficiency Burner 
(Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 
Process Heating 
Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

39.1 

26.7 

25.1 

25.1 

20.1 

19.2 

18.5 

16.3 

15.5 

15.4 

51% 

38% 

50% 

50% 

32% 

61% 

11% 

46% 

6% 

32% 

100% 

89% 

93% 

93% 

89% 

100% 

79% 

91% 

73% 

81% 

A7.2.4 Transport   

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A7.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on Private cars, Heavy Goods Vehicles, and light duty vehicles quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

290 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A7.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Denmark 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

296.6 

208.3 

124.3 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport  30.6 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

29.7 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

2.5 

1.3 

0.7 

0.3 

0.2 

6.11 

1.17 

1.08 

0.12 

4.78 

0.73 

0.11 

1.53 

0.03 

6.82 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The top energy efficiency programmes transport sector in Denmark are shown in Table A7.8 The programmes with the highest technical 
energy saving potential are the programmes addressing energy efficiency in private cars (299.1 ktoe). Private cars hold significant technical 
energy saving potential however only 2.5 ktoe is evaluated to be economic. Heavy goods vehicles have the next highest technical and 
economic potential with 209.6 ktoe by 2030. Light duty vehicles can be applied to both passenger and freight transport and present 154 ktoe 
in economic energy savings. 

Figure A7.28 displays the top energy efficiency programmes for the transport sector in Denmark, where only 5 are being displayed as the 
normalised technical potential means 5 programmes have been given a score of 0. All programmes have a high likelihood of success owing 
to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing the energy efficiency 
measures (range 3.5 – 3.7). The programme with the highest likelihood of success are heavy goods vehicles with a score of 3.7. 

The least cost-effective programme is addressing the energy savings in private cars with a CCE of 6.11 cent/kWh. Compare this with the 
most cost-effective programme of public road transport programme where the CCE is 0.012 cent/kWh. Apart from private cars programmes, 
all other programmes within the top 10 as shown in  Figure A7.28 can be considered as economic. 

August 2020  

291 

 
 
 
 
Figure A7.28 

Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Denmark in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A7.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private cars. The top ESO is through the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved efficiency). The 

uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 12% and a high future uptake of 100% leading to a technical energy saving of 324.3 ktoe. All 
of the top ESOs have a low current uptake and high future uptake, owing to the technical potential of the vehicle fleet renewal rate being 
consistently high. Public Road transport improvements are also considered for one ESO (Improved vehicle efficiency 3%).  

■  Heavy Goods Vehicles. 4 of the top 10 ESOs are Heavy Goods Vehicles based, which present technical energy savings of 181.7 ktoe 
by 2030. This is as a result of a maximum future uptake for the ESOs in this end-use of 100% (owing to vehicle fleet renewal rate). 

■  Light Duty Vehicles. There are 3 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles. They present a technical saving potential 

totalling 153.2 ktoe by 2030.  

August 2020  

292 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A7.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector for Denmark in 2030 

Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020) 

Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Improved vehicle 
efficiency private car (5%) 

Private cars 

Improved vehicle 
efficiency private car (3%) 

Private cars and public 
road transport 

Improved vehicle 
efficiency private car (4%) 

Improved vehicle 
efficiency LCV (6%) 

Improved vehicle 
efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

Improved vehicle 
efficiency HDV (30%) 

Improved vehicle 
efficiency LCV (4%) 

Improved vehicle 
efficiency HDV (25%) 

Improved vehicle 
efficiency LCV (3%) 

Improved vehicle 
efficiency HDV (20%) 

Private cars 

Light duty vehicles 

Heavy goods vehicles 

Heavy goods vehicles 

Light duty vehicles 

Heavy goods vehicles 

Light duty vehicles 

Heavy goods vehicles 

128.7 

103.8 

91.9 

67.6 

54.7 

50.8 

47.7 

42.3 

37.8 

33.8 

12% 

12% 

12% 

12% 

10% 

10% 

12% 

10% 

12% 

10% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

99% 

99% 

100% 

99% 

100% 

99% 

August 2020  

293 

 
 
 
 
 
   
A7.3  Recommendations 

A7.3.1 Policy Review 

In its draft NECP, Denmark proposed a reduction of 39% to its non-ETS GHG emissions by 2030 compared to the 2005 baseline. In terms of 
energy, Denmark’s proposed contribution to the EU 2030 target is noted as a reduction of 18.6 Mtoe in primary and 15.8 Mtoe in final energy 
consumption. The Commission has assessed this target as a not ambitious enough to contribute towards EU goals. Furthermore, it is noted 
that Denmark should miss this target by an estimated 16% with existing policies. 

Transport is the largest contributor to emissions among the non-ETS sectors in Denmark, meaning that policies and measures targeted at 
this sector are crucial to achieving relevant energy savings. According to the Climate Council, policies focused on passenger cars are the 
most effective and cost-efficient as these vehicles account for roughly 60% of transport sector emissions. 

Denmark’s 2018 Climate and Air Proposal comprises 19 initiatives focused specifically on the transport sector, including increasing the 
electric fleet though tax reductions, prioritising electric vehicles for the issuance of taxi permits, and stopping sales of petrol and diesel cars 
in 2030. 

The previous Danish government had plans to allocate 9.6 billon EUR for railway projects and procurement of electric trains and 134 million 
EUR for a fund for better cycling infrastructure throughout the country. The new government took office in 2019 and has indicated its 
intention to negotiate agreements and to plan investments that focus on climate and the environment to an even greater extent. 

According to the Summary of the Commission assessment of Denmark’s draft NECP 2021-2030, a significant reduction in energy 
consumption and emissions can be achieved through the refinement and implementation of planned policies for the transport sector. 
Furthermore, improved efforts and specific measures to increase energy efficiency in buildings would also contribute towards national 
energy savings. 

A7.3.2 Policies and Measures Analysis 

There are several cross-cutting measures identified in Denmark for energy efficiency (20). Most of them are general climate or energy 
policies not focused on specific sectors, such as the 2018 Energy Agreement and the 2018 Climate and Air Proposal. Cross-cutting 
measures also include the tax acts for gas, coal and electricity, the National Green Climate Fund, and the emission trading scheme. The 
majority of these measures have been implemented (16). 

There are 10 energy efficiency measures focused on the building sector in Denmark’s draft NECP, all of which have already been 
implemented. Five of them have an economic or regulatory focus. While some of these policies are specific for public or residential edifices, 
most have a broad focus and cover all types of buildings (i.e. residential, commercial and public). Measures and policies for the building 

August 2020  

294 

 
 
 
sector in Denmark include the implementation of an energy labelling scheme for electric appliances, an information campaign on energy 
efficiency at end-user level, and a strategy for heat pumps as an energy service. 

There are 3 measures which address industrial energy efficiency: the establishment of agreements on energy efficiency with business, the 
implementation of mandatory energy audit for large enterprises and the creation of the centre for energy savings in enterprises. All have 
already been implemented. 

There are multiple measures for energy efficiency in the transport sector in Denmark’s draft NECP (22). Most of these policies (16) have an 
economic, regulatory or fiscal focus. Measures for the transport sector in Denmark include the establishment of intermodal installations, the 
reduction of travel times for public transport, the electrification of parts of the rail infrastructure, investments in a new metro line and bicycle 
transport facilities, the phase-out of sales of new petrol and diesel cars in 2030 and multiple incentives for electric and low-carbon vehicles. 
The majority of these measures have been implemented (15). 

From the policies implemented with and before NEEAP 3, Denmark’s energy efficiency measures were adjudged to be sufficiently cost-
efficient, create a high impact, reach a high number of applicants, have enough potential for market transformation, be suitable to overcome 
barriers, be highly transferable to other countries and to create persistent savings. 

A7.3.3 Recommendations 

The top 10 programmes for Denmark ranked by the technical energy saving potential are shown in Table A7.10, and the corresponding top 
ESOs are presented in Table A7.11. 

The top two energy saving programmes are from the transport sector, focusing on private cars and heavy goods vehicles. These two 
programmes have the largest energy saving potential by some margin when compared against the next programme in the residential sector 
(space heating in single family houses) as the difference is over 50 ktoe. The fourth and fifth top programmes are also from the transport and 
residential sectors with a focus on light duty vehicles and space heating in multi-family apartments, respectively. Among the top 5 
programmes, only one is evaluated as being uneconomic: reducing fuel consumption in private cars. None of the top 10 programmes and 
ESOs listed in Table A7.10 and Table A7.11 relate to the industrial sector and there is only one that targets the commercial sector focused 
on electric air-source cold climate heat pumps. 

Existing and planned measures in Denmark’s NECP focus on modal shifts and incentivising electric passenger vehicles. Although these 
measures address the key issue of passenger transport, they could be improved to also target heavy goods and light-duty vehicles and thus 
address the saving potentials associated with them. In the buildings sector, current measures seem to be few and not specific enough. 
Although there is a measure related to the uptake of heat pumps, further policies targeted specifically at residential space and water heating 
could boost savings in the sector. To cover ESOs from Table A7.11 these measures should focus on the installation of thermal curtains for 
windows and wastewater heat recovery systems, and on improving wall insulation in residential dwellings. 

August 2020  

295 

 
 
 
Table A7.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Denmark 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport  Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Transport  Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Residential  Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

296.6 

208.3 

141.5 

Transport  Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

124.3 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

109.0 

104.7 

91.6 

75.4 

60.5 

52.7 

10 

Residential  Single family houses - Other - Hot water heating 

Table A7.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Denmark by 2030 

6.11 

1.17 

1.70 

1.08 

1.72 

4.00 

10.99 

3.98 

13.53 

1.32 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (3%) 

 Private cars,  Public road 
transport 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (4%) 

 Private cars 

Residential  Wastewater Heat Recovery 

Hot water heating 

Systems 

Residential 

Thermal Curtains 

Space heating 

Residential  Wall Insulation 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV 
(6%) 

Space heating, Cooling 

 Light Duty Vehicles 

128.7 

103.8 

91.9 

86.3 

80.4 

74.1 

67.6 

Residential 

Air Infiltration 

Space heating, Cooling 

65.8 

August 2020  

12% 

12% 

12% 

41% 

41% 

50% 

12% 

50% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

74% 

83% 

100% 

100% 

296 

 
 
 
Country 
rank 

9 

10 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Commercial  Electric Air-Source Cold Climate 

Space Heating 

Heat Pumps 

Residential 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space 
heating 

To fulfil its 2030 energy efficiency target Denmark should: 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

64.7 

62.5 

3% 

2% 

87% 

70% 

1.  Refine policy measures for the transport sector focusing on improved vehicle performance in private cars. 

2.  Design policies targeted at heavy goods and light duty vehicles. 

3.  Improve measures in the building sector, focusing on space and water heating in residential dwellings. 

August 2020  

297 

 
 
 
 
Annex 8  Estonia 

A8.1  Summary 

Table A8.1 

Summary of modelling results for Estonia 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

961 

500 

448 

673 

2,583 

 174  

 128  

 114  

 39  

 455  

 110  

 53  

 111  

 13  

 286  

18% 

26% 

25% 

6% 

18% 

11% 

11% 

25% 

2% 

11% 

231 

August 2020  

298 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A8.1.2 Residential  

Figure A8.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating and hot water 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (96.7 ktoe) 
and hot water heating (63.3 ktoe). 

Figure A8.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

299 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Multi-family apartments 
contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, multi-family apartments have potential energy savings of 100.9 ktoe. 

Figure A8.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

Figure A8.3 

300 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Space 
heating and hot water heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
space heating (71.2 ktoe) and hot water heating (27.1 ktoe).  

Figure A8.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on residential energy end uses 

Figure A8.4 

August 2020  

301 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. In 2030, single 
multi-homes have potential energy savings of 57.3 ktoe. 

Figure A8.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on residential sub-sectors 

Figure A8.5 

August 2020  

302 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 787.2 ktoe (18% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 851.7 ktoe (11% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 961.3 ktoe. 

Figure A8.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Estonia 

August 2020  

303 

 
 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Estonia’s final energy consumption by 174.1 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A8.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Other (58.0%), natural gas (28%) and 
electricity (12%) sector contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A8.6 

Primary energy impacts for Estonia based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

304 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A8.1.3 Commercial  

Figure A8.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (72.1 ktoe) and 
water heating (29.3 ktoe). 

Figure A8.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

305 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Private and public 
offices and wholesale and retail trade contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, private and public offices have a potential 
savings of 47.7 ktoe and wholesale and retail trade have potential energy savings of 42.4 ktoe. 

Figure A8.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

306 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Lighting, water heating, and space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by 
end use are lighting (18.7 ktoe) and water heating (15.9 ktoe). 

Figure A8.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

307 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of wholesale and retail trade are 22.2 ktoe, 
followed by private and public office (14.1 ktoe). 

Figure A8.10 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

308 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 372.2 ktoe (26% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 447.7 ktoe (11% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 500.4 ktoe. 

Figure A8.11 

 Total Technical and Economic Potential Consumption Scenarios for Estonia  

August 2020  

309 

 
 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Estonia’s final energy consumption by 128.1 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A8.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Other (42%), electricity (29%) and natural 
gas (24%) sectors contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A8.12 

Primary energy impacts for Estonia based on technical potential for commercial sector

August 2020  

310 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A8.1.4 Industrial   

Figure A8.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (64 ktoe) and 
machine drives (34 ktoe).   

Figure A8.13 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on industrial energy end uses

August 2020  

311 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry 
contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, other industry has a potential savings of 50 ktoe, and food and tobacco have 
potential energy savings of 16 ktoe. 

Figure A8.14 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on industrial sub-sectors

August 2020  

312 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (64 ktoe) and machine drives (34 ktoe).   

Figure A8.15 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A8.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of other industry are 50 ktoe, followed by food and 
tobacco (16 ktoe). 

August 2020  

313 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.16 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on industrial sub-sectors 

Figure A8.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 334.0 ktoe (25% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 337.3 ktoe (25% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 447.8 ktoe. 

August 2020  

314 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Estonia

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Estonia’s final energy consumption by 113.9 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A8.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (41%), RPP (11%), and natural 
gas (34%) sectors contains the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

315 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.18 

Primary energy impacts for Estonia based on technical potential for industrial sector 

A8.1.5 Transport     

Figure A8.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the highest 
potential energy savings over time, followed by heavy goods vehicles. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are 
private cars (20 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (13 ktoe).   

August 2020  

316 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.19 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on transport energy end uses

Figure A8.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passport transport has a potential savings of 32 ktoe and freight transport 
has potential energy savings of 7 ktoe. 

August 2020  

317 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.20 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on transport sub-sectors

Figure A8.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Light duty vehicles and public road transport contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by 
end use are light duty vehicles (9 ktoe) and public road transport (3 ktoe).  

August 2020  

318 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.21 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on transport energy end uses

Figure A8.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of freight transport is 13 ktoe, followed by 
passenger transport 0.2 ktoe. 

August 2020  

319 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.22 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Estonia based on transport sub-sectors

Figure A8.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 630 ktoe (6% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 658 ktoe (2% energy 
saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 673.3 ktoe.    

August 2020  

320 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.23 

Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Estonia

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Estonia ’s final energy consumption by 39.31 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A8.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (97.98%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

321 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.24 

Primary energy impacts for Estonia based on technical potential for transport sector

A8.2  Discussion 

A8.2.1 Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A8.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating and hot water heating quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

322 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A8.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Estonia 

Programme Name 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Other - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

40.7 

24.4 

14.5 

12.9 

11.5 

9.3 

9.1 

9.0 

8.9 

8.8 

3.34 
3.31 
7.13 
23.10 
16.85 
7.16 
12.43 
2.61 
2.26 
18.72 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

The total technical energy savings from the top 10 programmes shown in Table A8.2 is 149.2 ktoe by 2030. The largest technical savings by 
energy end-use are 89.0 ktoe for space heating programmes or 59.7% of the total shown in Table A8.2. However, only 65.2 ktoe of energy 
savings for space heating programmes are evaluated as being economic energy savings. Hot water heating programmes comprise 6 of the 
top 10 programmes in Table A8.2, which equates to 40.3% of total technical energy saving potential from the top 10 programmes or 60.1 
ktoe by 2030. Only 38.5 ktoe however is considered as economic energy saving potential for hot water heating programmes. 59.5% of 
energy savings from the top 10 are from programmes in multifamily apartments (88.7 ktoe by 2030).  

The top energy efficiency programmes within the residential sector are shown in Figure A8.25 and as can be seen all programmes have a 
high likelihood to succeed owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of acceptance with 
stakeholders based on previous measures (scoring range 2.5 – 3.8). When compared with Table A8.2 there are two more lighting based 
programme, at the expense of two hot water heating programmes in Figure A8.25. The programme with the highest likelihood of success 
with a score of 3.8 is the lighting energy end-use based programme. The programme with the lowest likelihood of success in the top is the 
Other Fuel space heating programme with a score of 2.5. 

Natural Gas hot water heating in multi-family apartments is also the least cost-effective, with the average CCE 23.10 cent/kWh. The most 
cost-effective programme has a CCE of 0.65 cent/kWh and is for the multi-family electric lighting. Space heating programmes have CCEs 
ranging from 3.3 cent/kWh to 7.2 cent/kWh for other fuels and natural gas fuels, respectively. 

August 2020  

323 

 
 
 
Figure A8.25 

Top energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Estonia in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A8.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating. There are 2 specific ESOs which focuses on space heating energy end-use. They are thermal curtains for windows and 
basement wall insulation, which present 31.9 ktoe technical energy savings by 2030, and together form the top ESO for the sector. 
Thermal curtains for windows ESO it should be noted has the second largest energy saving potential of ESOs for the sector because of 
its low current uptake (15%) and high future uptake 55%). 

August 2020  

324 

 
 
 
 
■  Hot water heating. 3 of the top 10 ESOs in Table A8.3 comprise of hot water-based energy end-uses. The ESO type varies from 

reduction in water consumption, heat pumps and heat recovery. In total they present 31.7 ktoe in technical energy savings. For hot water 
ESOs the high technical potential is as a result of the limited current uptake of such ESOs (5-10%). 

■  Space heating and cooling. 3 ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within space heating and space cooling. These 
measures focus on the improvement of building envelopment performance, through measures such as a reduction in air infiltration and 
building envelope improvements. In total the technical energy saving potential for ESOs within these end-uses is 38.6 ktoe by 2030.  
■  Space heating and hot water heating. One ESO can be applied to both space heating and hot water heating which presents energy 

savings of 6.7 ktoe by 2030. This is through the building of net-zero ready homes. 

Table A8.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Estonia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Hot water heating 

Thermal Curtains 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Wall Insulation 

Air Infiltration 

Space heating 

Space heating 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Space heating, Cooling 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Heat Pump Water Heater  

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

10 

Residential Lighting Efficiency from Incand. 

Lighting 

17.3 

16.6 

15.3 

15.3 

13.8 

9.6 

7.4 

7.0 

6.7 

6.6 

5% 

15% 

20% 

20% 

20% 

20% 

10% 

5% 

0% 

33% 

38% 

55% 

53% 

53% 

63% 

53% 

100% 

82% 

48% 

83% 

A8.2.2 Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A8.4. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating and lighting quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

325 

 
 
 
Table A8.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Estonia 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Private and Public Offices - Other   - Space Heating 

10.8 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating  10.3 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Other   - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

9.4 

9.0 

6.6 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Water Heating 

6.3 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

5.5 

4.3 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Water Heating 

4.2 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Space Heating  4.1 

11.07 

38.98 

4.53 

4.23 

11.07 

11.49 

4.23 

4.90 

155.68 

38.98 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

6 of the top 10 programmes for energy efficiency within the commercial sector the top technical energy saving can be found in space heating 
(46.2 ktoe by 2030). This accounts for 65.5% of the technical energy saving potential from the top 10 programmes (70.5 ktoe by 2030). Only 
5.5 ktoe of energy savings from space heating programmes in Table A8.4 are evaluated as being economic equating to 7.8% of the top 10 
total saving potential. There are 2 lighting programmes in the sector and present technical energy savings of 13.7 ktoe by 2030, of which all 
technical savings are considered as economic. Of the top 10 programmes within this sector, the majority of savings can be found in 
wholesale & retail trade and private and public offices as they present 32.2 ktoe and 38.3 ktoe by 2030 respectively.  

August 2020  

326 

 
 
 
The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the commercial sector are shown in Figure A8.26. All have a high likelihood to succeed 
owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of acceptance with stakeholders based on 
previous measures (scoring range 3.8 – 5.0). The programmes shown in Figure A8.26 show two additional Education programmes at the 
expense of two Wholesale and Retail Trade programmes. Lighting programmes have the highest likelihood of success with a score of 5.0, 
whereas space heating programmes within the offices sub-sector is the least likely to succeed with a score of 3.8. 

The most cost-effective programme is one with the lowest likelihood to succeed to score from the top 10. This is the space heating 
programme in education using Other fuels, with CCE of 3.4 cent/kWh. The least cost-effective programme is also a space heating 
programme, using electricity in Offices, with a CCE of 39 cent/kWh. This is reflected in Table A8.4, where the majority of space heating 
measures are not considered as economic. Lighting energy efficiency programmes have a range of CCE’s between 4.5 – 4.9 cent/kWh.  

Figure A8.26 

Top energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Estonia in 2030 

August 2020  

327 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A8.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating. There are two ESOs for space heating energy end-uses. Air source heat pumps and weather stripping to prevent air 

infiltration can be applied to space heating energy end-uses. The total technical potential from the ESOs are 25.9 ktoe by 2030 owing to 
the low current uptake (3% and 0% respectively) and high future uptakes (70% and 91% respectively). 

■  Space heating and water heating 3 ESOs have impacts toward both the space heating and water heating energy end-uses. The ESOs 

are building recommissioning and new builds. Energy savings from these ESOs total 30.5 ktoe of which 18.3 ktoe is from the 
construction of new more energy efficient buildings.  

■  Lighting. 3 ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within lighting. This energy saving can be attributed to the roll out of 
efficient high bay lighting, typically used in wholesale and retail sub-sectors and leads to energy savings of 6.6 ktoe within this energy 
end-use.  

Table A8.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Estonia in 2030 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps 

Faucet Aerators 

End-use category 

Space Heating 

Water Heating 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Commercial Door Air Infiltration Heat Pump Heating 

Space Heating 

Ground Source Heatpump 

Space Heating, Space Cooling 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W (Against 250W 
baseline) 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W (Against 200W 
baseline) 

10 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 150 W (Against 400W 
baseline) 

August 2020  

Lighting 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future 
uptake (2030) 

20.5 

15.8 

12.2 

11.3 

7.0 

5.4 

2.5 

2.3 

2.2 

2.1 

3% 

0% 

0% 

0% 

0% 

0% 

3% 

33% 

33% 

33% 

70% 

100% 

100% 

33% 

33% 

91% 

43% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

328 

 
 
 
 
A8.2.3 Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A8.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on machine drives and process heating quantified as follows: 

Table A8.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Estonia 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Electricity - Machine drives 

Other Industry - RPP - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - Electricity - Machine drives 

Other Industry - Other   - Process Heating 

15.1 

10.3 

8.6 

6.1 

5.8 

4.5 

3.4 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

3.3 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Electricity - Machine drives 

3.4 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating  3.0 

1.59 

0.28 

0.45 

1.50 

0.28 

1.92 

0.20 

0.33 

1.59 

0.28 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The total energy savings from the top 10 programmes are 63.5 ktoe by 2030, of which all of the programmes shown in Table A8.6. are 
considered economic energy savings. The top programme is machine drives energy end-use, however process heating based programmes 
present the largest savings with 34.5 ktoe of energy savings (54.3%), as they make up 6 of the top 10 programmes. There are 4 machines 
drives based programmes in Table A8.6, which present economic energy savings of 29 ktoe by 2030. 4 different sub-sectors are 
represented within the top 10 programmes; however, the most technical energy savings can be found in other industry sub-sector which 
present savings of 43.3 ktoe by 2030. 

When compared with Table A8.6, the top energy efficiency programmes shown in Figure A8.27 have the one additional machine drives 
based programme. All programmes have a low likelihood of success as there are no previous energy efficiency measures to base the 

August 2020  

329 

 
 
 
political feasibility scoring upon. Machine drives programmes have the highest likelihood of success with a score of 2.1, whilst fossil fuel-
based process heating programmes have the lowest likelihood of success with a score of 2.  

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10, is process heating (other fuel based) with a CCE of 0.2 cent/kWh. By comparison the most 
expensive of the top 10 programmes save are the machine drive programmes which have a CCE of 1.9 cent/kWh, especially the food and 
tobacco sub-sector. The majority of programmes listed are considered as economic as per Table A8.6. 

Figure A8.27 

Top energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Estonia in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A8.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Machine drive. 5 ESOs represent the machine drives energy end use, which total 23.2 ktoe by 2030. The ESOs focus on installation of 
adjustable speed drives in motors for fans, pumps and other motors which contribute 15.1 ktoe energy savings by 2030. Optimisation of 
pumping systems and impeller trimming lead to energy savings of 8.1 ktoe by 2030.  

August 2020  

330 

 
 
 
 
■  Process Heating. 5 of the top 10 ESOs, focus on process heating totalling 20.1 ktoe by 2030. The main retrofits are surrounding boiler 

and dryer energy consumption reduction by flue gas monitoring and advanced heating/process control which present 11.8 ktoe. Boiler 
load management and right sizing measures account for technical energy savings of 8.4 ktoe by 2030. 

Table A8.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Estonia in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future 
uptake (2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans) 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Machine drives 

Process Heating 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Other motors) 

Machine drives 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Pumps) 

Impeller Trimming or Inlet Guide Vanes 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Optimization of pumping system 

Machine drives 

Machine drives 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Machine drives 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

10 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Dryer) 

Process Heating 

A8.2.4 Transport 

5.7 

4.9 

4.9 

4.6 

4.3 

4.2 

4.2 

3.8 

3.5 

3.4 

22% 

51% 

22% 

34% 

21% 

50% 

50% 

19% 

38% 

9% 

100% 

100% 

90% 

97% 

100% 

94% 

94% 

87% 

90% 

75% 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A8.8 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in private cars and light duty vehicles programmes 

Table A8.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Estonia 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

19.2 

9.3 

13.57 

3.41 

No 

Yes 

August 2020  

331 

 
 
 
Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

3.5 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport 

3.3 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

3.1 

0.5 

0.2 

0.1 

0.1 

0.0 

11.44 

0.29 

12.81 

1.65 

1.22 

0.07 

4.97 

16.65 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Private cars end-use programmes account for 2 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and 
have the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 39.3 ktoe/year in of total savings, of which process heating 
accounts for 19.2 ktoe/year (50.1%) of that total. However, gasoline/diesel private cars in the passenger sector are not economic by 2030, 
which has technical potential of 19.2 ktoe. As a result, only 0.5 ktoe (2.5%) private car programmes are economic by 2030. The end-use with 
the second highest technical potential savings is light duty vehicles. They make up 12.9 ktoe (32.8%) of the total savings and of this, 9.4 ktoe 
(72.9) is expected to be economic by 2030.  

Figure A8.28 shows the top energy efficiency programmes for the transport sector and is made up of the top 6 programmes by technical 
potential. Due to low technical potential, electricity HGVs (freight), LDVs (freight, passenger) and public road transport (passenger) are not 
included. Of the 6 remaining, half are not predicted to be economic by 2030, and from the figure it is clear this is due to low cost 
effectiveness scores in relation to those which are economic. This is because of their CCE, with those not predicted to be economic scoring 
11.4 – 13.6 cent/kWh and those predicted to be economic scoring 0.3– 3.4 cent/kWh. Of those predicted to be economic, gasoline/diesel 
LDVs (passenger) have the highest energy indicator (2.1).   

August 2020  

332 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8.28 

Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Estonia in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A8.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private Cars – The 2 private car end-use ESO programmes account for 14.0 ktoe, and gains are attributed to low current uptake (3%) 
rather than future uptake (29%). Of those, there is a positive correlation between level of improved vehicle efficiency and technical 
potential energy savings. This is a pattern which can be observed throughout the ESOs, and it not confined to the private cars end use 
programmes 

■  Private Cars and Public Road Transport - The 2 private cars and public road transport end-use ESO programmes account for 9.1 ktoe, 

and gains are attributed to low current uptake (3%) rather than future uptake (29%). 

■  Light Duty Vehicle. The 3 LDV ESOs presents a total technical saving potential of 12.7 ktoe/year. This is due to a sizeable change in 
uptake between 2020 and 2030, with a predicted increase of 66%. On the whole, improving LDV efficiency provides higher technical 
potential energy savings that the HGV equivalent.  

August 2020  

333 

 
 
 
 
 
■  Heavy Goods Vehicles - The 3 ESOs attaining to HGVs have the technical energy savings of 2.1 ktoe. High technical potential energy 

savings can be attributed to low current uptake (1%) as uptake is not expected to be particularly high by 2030 (11%).  

Table A8.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Estonia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car 
(5%) 

 Private cars 

8.2 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car 
(3%) 

 Private cars and 
public road transport  7.8 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car 
(4%) 

 Private cars 

5.8 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

5.6 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

4.0 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

3.1 

Fuel efficient tyres, C1 

 Private cars and 
public road transport  1.3 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

0.8 

0.7 

0.6 

3% 

3% 

3% 

7% 

7% 

7% 

0% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

29% 

29% 

29% 

73% 

73% 

73% 

6% 

11% 

11% 

11% 

August 2020  

334 

 
 
 
 
A8.3  Recommendations 

A8.3.1 Policy Review 

Although Estonia didn’t declare a final energy consumption target in their draft NECP, they targeted a maximum primary energy consumption 
of 5.49 Mtoe by 2030. The Commission commented that plans were of low-level ambition and Estonia is required to take action to implement 
policies and measures particularly in energy efficiency. Per capita, Estonia is the second highest greenhouse gas emitter of the EU. 

Estonia’s NECP focusses on buildings and transport. The target for renewable energy in transport for 2030 set in its NECP is 14%. This 
currently seems out of reach as there is an absence of targeted measures to motivate people to switch to more environmentally friendly 
vehicles. 

In the building sector, heating and cooling energy efficiency opportunities have been considered and policies and measures are described. 
Measures have been successful in improving apartment buildings and need to be promoted to residential dwellings. The set target in the 
NECP of renovating 40% of the existing residential buildings by 2030 to energy efficiency class C or D, and 50% of apartment buildings to 
class C.  

Concern has been raised regarding the low levels of investment in R&D in Estonia. Estonia’s composite eco-innovation score (60) is 40% 
below the EU average, which has led to low innovation into areas of energy efficiency. Political agreement across party lines has been 
signed at the end of 2018 to facilitate better cooperation between the universities, entrepreneurs and public sector. However, there is a lack 
of investment in R&D, with the sector needing to appeal to private funds.  

Estonia was advised to substantiate the detail on the implementation timeline of measures and their impact evaluation. The draft NECP 
lacks comparable detail for the industrial sector. 

A8.3.2 Policies and Measures Analysis 

There are few cross-cutting measures identified in Estonia. These are the creation of the Energy Services Market and Energy Audits which 
improve the resource efficiency of businesses.   

There are 7 measures planned to improve the energy efficiency of transport, two of which are fiscal whereas the other five offer direct 
economic support. The fiscal policies intend to reduce emissions by a congestion charge in Tallin and taxing road charges on to heavy duty 

August 2020  

335 

 
 
 
 
 
vehicles. The economic support policies intend to develop rail, improve fuel-efficiency of vehicles and shift towards sustainable transport 
modes. There are clear gaps in the exact targets and mechanisms which these planned policies intend to employ.  

Three measures are already implemented to improve energy efficiency of buildings, with a regulatory target for minimum energy efficiency 
and targets along with economic measures to rebuild public sector and private residences to minimum energy efficiency levels. Mechanisms 
to target the adequate buildings for renovation or reconstruction have not been identified. Information campaigns could be used to engage 
with the public. 

Electricity supply and distribution already has 4 regulatory policies in place along with another 2 measures planned, for direct economic 
support and Research and development. Regulatory measures have already been implemented to increase the quality of electricity 
networks, increasing stability and efficiency of distribution, along with regulation set to finance the system operator. Policy is also in place to 
increase the synchronisation of the Baltic electricity system with the network of Continental Europe. Planned measures intend to financially 
support the development of district heating systems and reinforce R&D activities of energy development. With regard to electricity 
production, no clear targets have been set for the incorporation of renewables into the grid.  

Only three policies have been implemented with and before NEEAP 3 in Estonia. These have been very effective at delivering persistent 
savings. However, these measures have been unable to unlock market transformation or the promotion of an energy service market, they 
have not been suitable to overcome barriers for energy efficiency and have been unable to reach financial stability for re-financing. 

A8.3.3 Recommendations 

The top 10 programmes for Estonia by technical energy savings are shown in Table A8.10. The corresponding top ESOs are presented in 
Table A8.11. The highest energy saving technical potential program identified is with regards to space heating for residential multi-family 
apartments. This program can deliver technically up to 40.7 ktoe of energy savings, and is deemed economic by 2030. Within the top 10 
programmes technical energy saving potential, three are with regards to space heating in residential homes, accounting for a total of 79.6 
ktoe of technical potential savings.  Existing targets and measures are in place to improve the energy efficiency of the housing stock. As 
mentioned in Table A8.11, the measures have delivered persistent savings but have not been successful otherwise. The top 10 ESO identify 
3 technical measures for residential space heating, which could deliver 80 ktoe of savings. 

The third top savings programme identified is with regards to the efficiency of private gasoline/diesel cars, capable of delivering 19.2 ktoe of 
savings. As mentioned in Table A8.10, measures are being proposed to address the consumption of this sector, but there is severe lack in 
clarity in the regulatory and economic incentive measures to achieve these goals. No high potential ESO has been identified for this sector.  

The fourth technical savings programme identified is for machine drives in Industry, delivering 15.1 ktoe of savings. The programme is 
economically viable but no clear measures for industry have been put forward as of yet by the Estonian government. However, the cross-
cutting policy for Energy Services Market and Energy Audits may contribute indirectly to the improvement of this sector. No high potential 
ESO has been identified for this sector.  

August 2020  

336 

 
 
 
Table A8.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Estonia 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

40.7 

24.4 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars  19.2 

Industrial 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space 

15.1 

14.5 

heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water 

12.9 

heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water 

11.5 

heating 

Commercial  Private and Public Offices - Other   - Space Heating  10.8 

Commercial  Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space 

10.3 

Heating 

10 

Industrial 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

10.3 

3.34 

3.31 

13.57 

1.59 

7.13 

23.10 

16.85 

11.07 

38.98 

0.28 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Table A8.11 

Top 10 ESOs in Estonia by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Commercial  Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 

Space Heating 

20.5 

Pumps 

Residential  Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems  Hot water heating 

17.3 

3% 

5% 

1 

2 

August 2020  

100% 

70% 

337 

 
 
 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Thermal Curtains 

Commercial  Faucet Aerators 

Space heating 

Water Heating 

Residential  Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Space heating 

16.6 

15.8 

15.3 

Residential  Wall Insulation 

Residential  Air Infiltration 

Space heating, Cooling  15.3 

Space heating, Cooling  13.8 

Commercial  Building Recommissioning (Enhanced)  Space Heating, Water 

12.2 

Commercial  New Construction - 40% Better 

Heating 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating 

11.3 

15% 

0% 

20% 

20% 

20% 

0% 

0% 

38% 

53% 

53% 

100% 

63% 

100% 

100% 

10 

Residential  Super High-Performance Windows 

Space heating, Cooling  9.6 

20% 

33% 

To fulfil its 2030 energy efficiency target Estonia should: 

1.  Continue efforts to improve residential energy efficiency, information campaigns and specific targeting of low efficient buildings would 

increase uptake and private funding uptake. 

2.  Define legal targets and financial incentives for vehicle efficiency gains. 
3.  Provide measures to improve industrial efficiency, notably fiscal policies to improve machine drives and process heating  

August 2020  

338 

 
 
 
 
 
Annex 9  Finland 

A9.1  Summary 

Table A9.1 

Summary of modelling results for Finland 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

5,593 

3,021 

10,542 

3,687 

22,843 

 978  

 768  

 2,159  

 258  

 4,163  

 872  

 344  

 2,078  

 135  

 3,430  

17% 

25% 

20% 

7% 

18% 

16% 

11% 

20% 

4% 

15% 

2,034 

August 2020  

339 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A9.1.2 Residential 

Figure A9.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (421.8 ktoe) 
and hot water heating (402.8 ktoe).  

Figure A9.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

340 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 661.5 ktoe. 

Figure A9.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

341 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Space 
heating and hot water heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
space heating (421.8 ktoe) and hot water heating (296.6 ktoe).   

Figure A9.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

342 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 589.4 ktoe. 

Figure A9.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

343 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 4615.1 ktoe (17% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 4721.3 ktoe (16% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 5593.4 ktoe.   

Figure A9.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Finland 

August 2020  

344 

 
 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Finland’s final energy consumption by 978.4 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A9.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (56.1%), Other (20.0%) and RPP 
(21.9%) sectors contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A9.6 

Primary energy impacts for Finland based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

345 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A9.1.3 Commercial 

Figure A9.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (376.5 ktoe) and 
lighting (223.2 ktoe).   

Figure A9.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

346 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, wholesale and retail trade have a potential savings of 300.8 ktoe and 
hotels and restaurants have potential energy savings of 178.5 ktoe. 

Figure A9.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

347 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Lighting, space heating, and water heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by 
end use are lighting (223.2 ktoe) and space heating (49.5 ktoe).   

Figure A9.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

348 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of wholesale and retail trade are 146.1 ktoe, 
followed by hotels and restaurants 82.5 ktoe. 

Figure A9.10 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

349 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 2253.1 ktoe (25% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 2677.4 ktoe (11% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 3021.4 ktoe. 

Figure A9.11 

 Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Finland 

August 2020  

350 

 
 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Finland’s final energy consumption by 768.3 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A9.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (73.5%), other (16.8%) and RPP 
(8.62%) sectors contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A9.12 

Primary energy impacts for Finland based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

351 

 
 
 
 
 
A9.1.4 Industrial    

Figure A9.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (1411 ktoe) 
and machine drives (524 ktoe).   

Figure A9.13 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A9.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Paper, pulp, and 
print contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, paper, pulp, and print have a potential savings of 1078 ktoe and other industry 
has potential energy savings of 304 ktoe. 

August 2020  

352 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.14 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on industrial sub-sectors 

Figure A9.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (1410 ktoe) and machine drives (524 ktoe).   

August 2020  

353 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.15 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A9.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Paper, pulp, and 
print contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of paper, pulp, and print are 1044 ktoe, followed by 
other industry (301 ktoe). 

August 2020  

354 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.16 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on industrial sub-sectors 

Figure A9.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 8383.6 ktoe (20% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 8463.7 ktoe (20% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 10542.2 ktoe. 

August 2020  

355 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Finland 

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Finland’s final energy consumption by 2145.19 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A20.1provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (60%), other (16%), RPP (15%) 
sectors contains the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

356 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.18 

Primary energy impacts for Finland based on technical potential for industrial sector 

A9.1.5 Transport     

Figure A9.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the highest 
potential energy savings over time, followed by heavy goods vehicles. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are 
private cars (120 ktoe) and heavy goods vehicles (103 ktoe).   

August 2020  

357 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.19 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A9.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passport transport has a potential savings of 150 ktoe and freight 
transport has potential energy savings of 108 ktoe. 

August 2020  

358 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.20 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A9.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Private cars and heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end 
use are heavy good vehicles (103 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (24 ktoe).   

August 2020  

359 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.21 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A9.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential over time after 2030. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of freight transport is 103 ktoe, 
followed by passenger transport 33 ktoe. 

August 2020  

360 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.22 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Finland based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A9.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 3428.9 ktoe (7% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 3550.9 ktoe (4% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 3686.5 ktoe.    

August 2020  

361 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.23 

Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Finland 

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Finland ’s final energy consumption by 257.54 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A9.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (67.68%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

362 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A9.24 

Primary energy impacts for Finland based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

363 

 
 
 
 
 
A9.2  Discussion 

A9.2.1 Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A9.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating, hot water heating, and lighting quantified as follows: 

Table A9.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Finland 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

165.4 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

143.3 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Lighting 

101.8 

68.3 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating  66.7 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Other - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

66.5 

63.0 

57.7 

48.7 

38.3 

2.57 

9.75 

2.58 

0.89 

13.16 

14.46 

1.76 

5.59 

4.34 

5.53 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The total technical energy savings from the top 10 programmes shown in Figure A9.25 is 819 ktoe by 2030. The largest technical savings by 
energy end-use are 412 ktoe for space heating programmes or 50.3% of the total shown in Table A9.2. Space heating programmes are all 
considered economic energy savings by 2030. Hot water heating programmes comprise 4 of the top 10 programmes in Table A9.2, which 
equates to 41.5% of total technical energy saving potential from the top 10 programmes or 339.5 ktoe by 2030. Only 273 ktoe however is 
considered as economic energy saving potential for hot water heating programmes. One lighting programme for single-family houses 
presents energy savings of 68.3 ktoe. 74.8% of energy savings from the top 10 are from programmes in single-family homes (613 ktoe by 
2030).  

August 2020  

364 

 
 
 
 
 
The top energy efficiency programmes within the residential sector are shown in Figure A9.25 and as can be seen all have a high likelihood 
to succeed owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of acceptance with stakeholders 
based on previous measures (scoring range 3.5 – 4.8). When compared with Table A9.2 there is one more lighting based programme, at the 
expense of a space heating programme in Figure A9.25. The programme with the highest likelihood of success with a score of 4.8 are the 
lighting energy single and multifamily houses end-use based programmes. The programme with the lowest likelihood of success for 
reference is the multifamily space heating programme using Other Fuels, with a score of 3.5. 

Single-family home electric hot water heating programmes also the least cost-effective, with a CCE of 9.8 cent/kWh. Despite this, it is still 
deemed economic. The most cost-effective programme has a CCE of 0.64 cent/kWh and is for the multi-family home lighting energy end-
use. Space heating programmes have CCEs ranging from 2.6 cent/kWh – 5.6 cent/kWh.  

Figure A9.25 

Top energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Finland in 2030 

August 2020  

365 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A9.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating. There are 2 specific ESOs which focuses on space heating energy end-use: Thermal Curtains for windows, and 

Basement Wall Insulation. The total energy savings from the top 10 ESOs for this sub-sector is 117.9 ktoe. 

■  Hot water heating. 4 of the top 10 ESOs in Table A9.3 comprise of hot water-based energy end-uses. The ESO type varies from 

reduction in water consumption, replacement energy efficient water heaters and heat recovery, however in total they present 263.8 ktoe 
in technical energy savings. For hot water ESOs the high technical potential is as a result of the limited current uptake of such ESOs (9% 
in most cases). 

■  Space heating and cooling. 3 ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within space heating and space cooling. These 
measures focus on the improvement of building envelopment performance, through measures such as a reduction in air infiltration. In 
total the technical energy saving potential for ESOs within these end-uses is 177.4 ktoe by 2030.  

Table A9.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Finland in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Hot water heating 

Water Heater Replacement 

Hot water heating 

Residential Lighting Efficiency from Incand. 

Lighting 

Thermal Curtains 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Wall Insulation 

Air Infiltration 

Space heating 

Hot water heating 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Space heating, Cooling 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Hot water heating 

10 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Space heating 

August 2020  

77.3 

72.7 

71.0 

70.8 

66.1 

65.3 

63.7 

48.3 

47.7 

47.1 

9% 

9% 

50% 

9% 

10% 

50% 

50% 

50% 

9% 

50% 

42% 

86% 

100% 

49% 

100% 

83% 

87% 

83% 

49% 

83% 

366 

 
 
 
A9.2.2 Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A9.4. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating and lighting quantified as follows: 

Table A9.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Finland 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

103.2 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Other   - Space 
Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Lighting 

78.4 

47.2 

Hotels & Restaurants - Other   - Space Heating 

44.7 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Space 
Heating 

38.5 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Space Heating  34.8 

Other Commercial - Other   - Space Heating 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Lighting 

Private and Public Offices - Other   - Space 
Heating 

26.4 

22.9 

21.8 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - RPP - Space Heating 

21.2 

4.04 

2.88 

4.31 

2.70 

25.65 

25.08 

5.34 

4.36 

7.35 

2.88 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

7 of the top 10 programmes for energy efficiency within the commercial sector the top technical energy saving can be found in space heating 
(265.7 ktoe by 2030). This accounts for 60.5% of the technical energy saving potential from the top 10 programmes (439 ktoe by 2030). Only 
21.2 ktoe of energy savings from space heating programmes in Table A9.4 are evaluated as being economic equating to 4.8% of the top 10 
total saving potential. Lighting programmes form 2 of the top 3 programmes in the sector and present technical energy savings of 173.4 ktoe 
by 2030, of which all technical savings are considered as economic. Of the top 10 programmes within this sector, the majority of savings can 
be found in wholesale & retail trade as they present 241.2 ktoe by 2030.  

August 2020  

367 

 
 
 
The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the commercial sector are shown in Figure A9.26. All have a high likelihood to succeed 
owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of acceptance with stakeholders based on 
previous measures (scoring range 3.8 – 5.0). The programmes shown in Figure A9.26 show 3 additional lighting programmes than the 
programmes shown in Table A9.4, at the expense of space heating programmes. Lighting programmes have the highest likelihood of 
success with a score of 5.0, whereas electricity space heating programmes within the wholesale and retail trade sub-sector is the least likely 
to succeed with a score of 3.8. 

The most cost-effective programme from the top 10 is the “Other-fuel” space heating programme in the Trade and Hospitality sub-sectors 
with CCEs of 2.9 and 2.7 cent/kWh, respectively. The least cost-effective programmes are electricity space heating in Trade and Hospitality 
space heating with CCEs of 25.7 and 25.1 cent/kWh, respectively. This is reflected in Table A9.4 where the majority of space heating 
measures are not considered as economic. Lighting energy efficiency programmes have a range of CCE’s between 4.0 – 4.4 cent/kWh.  

Figure A9.26 

Top energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Finland in 2030 

August 2020  

368 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A9.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating. There is one specific ESO each for space heating energy end-uses. Air source heat pumps is the ESO with the greatest 
technical potential and is applied to space heating energy end-uses. The total technical potential from the ESOs are 89.8 ktoe by 2030. 

■  Space heating and water heating / Multiple. Five ESOs have impacts toward both the space heating and water heating energy end-
uses. The ESOs are a combination of controls, building recommissioning and new builds. Energy savings from these ESOs total 200.3 
ktoe of which 99.3 ktoe is from the construction of new more energy efficient buildings. Controls based ESOs such as adaptive 
thermostats (which also save cooling energy) and advanced BAS present energy savings of 67.5 ktoe by 2030.  

■  Lighting. 3 ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within lighting. This is the uptake of better controls and improved 
efficiency of lighting lead to energy savings of 100.1 ktoe within this energy end-use. This is because of the high anticipated uptake of 
controls within the sector.  

Table A9.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Finland in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future 
uptake (2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Space Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting 

Lighting 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Space Heating, Water Heating, Space 
Cooling 

10 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W (Against 
250W baseline) 

Lighting 

August 2020  

89.8 

61.1 

48.7 

47.2 

41.5 

39.7 

38.2 

33.5 

20.4 

18.9 

33% 

44% 

12% 

10% 

10% 

10% 

44% 

44% 

10% 

50% 

100% 

77% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

77% 

100% 

77% 

100% 

369 

 
 
 
A9.2.3 Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A9.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on machine drives and process heating quantified as follows: 

Table A9.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Finland 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Electricity - Machine 
drives 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Other   - Process 
Heating 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Electricity - Process 
Heating 

305.7 

298.7 

149.7 

Paper, Pulp and Print - RPP - Process Heating  131.4 

Other Industry - Other   - Process Heating 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Iron and Steel - Other   - Process Heating 

96.5 

67.0 

65.6 

55.9 

Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

54.6 

Petroleum refineries - Other   - Process 
Heating 

52.6 

1.78 

0.23 

0.51 

0.31 

0.24 

0.32 

1.89 

0.24 

0.52 

0.20 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The total energy savings from the top 10 programmes are 1278 ktoe by 2030, of which all of the programmes shown in Table A9.6 are 
considered economic energy savings. The top programme is machine drives energy end-use, however process heating based programmes 
present the largest savings with 906 ktoe of energy savings (70.9%), as they make up 8 of the top 10 programmes. There are 2 machines 
drives based programmes in Table A9.6, which present economic energy savings of 371 ktoe by 2030. 4 different sub-sectors are 
represented within the top 10 programmes; however, the most economic energy savings can be found in paper, pulp and print sub-sector 
which present savings of 953 ktoe by 2030. 

When compared with Table A9.6, the top energy efficiency programmes shown in Figure A9.27 have the same number of energy end-uses 
being represented. All programmes have a high likelihood of success owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the 

August 2020  

370 

 
 
 
programme and high political feasibility of implementing the energy efficiency measures as seen in Figure A9.27 (score range of 4.5-4.6). 
Machine drives programmes have the highest likelihood of success with a score of 4.6, whilst fossil fuel-based process heating programmes 
have a score of 4.5.  

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10, is process heating petroleum refineries with a CCE of 0.2 cent/kWh. By comparison the 
most expensive of the top 10 programmes save are the machine drive programmes which have a CCE of 1.9 cent/kWh, however all 
programmes are well below their respective retail fuel tariffs and are economic.  

Figure A9.27 

Top energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Finland in 2030 

August 2020  

371 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A9.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process Heating. 7 of the top 10 ESOs, focus on process heating totalling 738 ktoe by 2030. The main retrofits are surrounding boiler 

and dryer energy consumption reduction by flue gas monitoring and advanced heating/process control which present 481 ktoe in 
technical energy saving. Heat recovery-based measures present 110 ktoe in energy savings. 

■  Machine drive. 3 ESOs for uptake in adjustable speed drive for efficiency control in fans, pumps and other motors have a technical 

potential of 232 ktoe. 

Table A9.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Finland in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future 
uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Dryer) 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Dryer) 

Flue gas monitoring (Dryer) 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans) 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Furnace) 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs 
(Other motors) 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

10 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs 
(Pumps) 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Machine drives 

Process Heating 

Machine drives 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Machine drives 

167.0 

135.9 

110.2 

95.6 

84.6 

82.7 

74.9 

73.1 

73.1 

72.9 

50% 

8% 

6% 

8% 

22% 

37% 

21% 

49% 

49% 

33% 

August 2020  

99% 

74% 

72% 

74% 

99% 

89% 

88% 

92% 

92% 

97% 

372 

 
 
 
 
 
A9.2.4 Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A9.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on private cars, heavy goods vehicles, and light duty vehicles quantified as follows: 

Table A9.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Finland 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

117.1 

101.3 

23.4 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport  5.9 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

4.9 

2.8 

1.5 

0.4 

0.2 

0.1 

7.20 

2.78 

1.99 

0.36 

9.30 

0.80 

0.25 

2.64 

0.08 

12.34 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

The top energy efficiency programmes transport sector in Finland are shown in Table A9.8, which represent 257.5 ktoe in energy savings. 
The programmes with the highest technical energy saving potential are the programmes addressing energy efficiency in private cars (119.9 
ktoe). Private cars hold significant technical energy saving potential as they account for 77.6% of savings from Table A9.8 however only 2.8 
ktoe is considered as economic energy saving potential.  Heavy goods vehicles programme present 102.8 ktoe or 40% of the total technical 
potential from programmes listed in Table A9.8. However, all of these energy savings are evaluated as economic, which is a similar result for 
light duty vehicles programmes. 4 programmes for light duty vehicles present economic energy savings of 28.7 ktoe by 2030.  

Figure A9.28 displays the top energy efficiency programmes for the transport sector in Finland, where only 7 are being displayed as the 
normalised technical potential means 3 programmes have been given a score of 0. All programmes have a high likelihood of success owing 
to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing the energy efficiency 
measures (scoring range between 3.8 – 4.5). The programme with the highest likelihood of success is heavy good vehicles with a score of 
4.5. The programme with the lowest score is a passenger transport, private cars 3.75. 

August 2020  

373 

 
 
 
 
The least cost-effective programme is addressing the energy savings in freight transport light duty vehicles with a CCE of 9.3 cent/kWh. 
Compare this with the most cost-effective programme for heavy goods vehicles where the CCE is 0.25 cent/kWh.  

Figure A9.28 

Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Finland in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A9.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private cars. The top 3 ESOs for this sector are for the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved 

efficiency). The uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 3% with an increased uptake expected of 31% leading to a technical energy 
saving of 120 ktoe. All of the top ESOs have a low current uptake and high future uptake, owing to the technical potential of the vehicle 
fleet renewal rate being consistently high.  

■  Heavy Goods Vehicles. 5 of the top 10 ESOs are Heavy Goods Vehicles based, which present technical energy savings of 99.7 ktoe by 

2030. This is as a result of 36% increased uptake in the ESOs for this end-use. 

August 2020  

374 

 
 
 
 
■  Light Duty Vehicles. There are 2 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles. They present a technical saving potential 

totalling 20.9 ktoe by 2030.  

Table A9.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Finland in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

 Private cars and public road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (15%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

50.0 

35.7 

34.3 

26.4 

24.5 

20.4 

16.3 

12.3 

12.2 

8.7 

3% 

3% 

3% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

3% 

4% 

3% 

34% 

34% 

34% 

40% 

40% 

40% 

40% 

35% 

40% 

35% 

A9.3  Recommendations 

A9.3.1 Policy Review 

In its draft NECP, Finland proposed a reduction of 39% to its non-ETS GHG emissions by 2030 compared to the 2005 baseline. In terms of 
energy, Finland envisages a slight increase of both primary energy consumption and final energy consumption for 2030. Based on the 

August 2020  

375 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commission’s assessment, planned policies in the transport sector may deliver significant reductions, although further detail on these 
measures is recommended. 

However, the targets proposed in Finland’s draft NECP are not ambitious enough to contribute towards EU goals and the revision of the 
Energy Efficiency Act should be an opportunity for Finland to consider increasing its contribution and designing policies and measures 
beyond the transport sector. More recently Finland has begun paving ways to a carbon neutral society by 2035, which suggests that bolder 
targets and policy measures will be implemented and that these will be more adequately aligned with EU goals. 

Roughly three quarters (76%) of Finland’s GHG emissions come from energy, and road transport accounts for 28% of energy emissions. 
The Finnish government aims at cutting emissions from the transport sector by half until 2030 through increasing electrification and 
automation, rising taxation on fossil fuels and investing in large-scale railway projects. A policy is currently in place for encouraging vehicle 
owners to switch to hybrid and electric vehicles and adequately disposing of old ones and there is planned funding to improve the charging 
network infrastructure for electric vehicles. Modal shift will be encouraged by improving the railway network to reduce time of travel and thus 
better the allure of train versus road travel.  

In the building sector, Finland’s GHG emission reduction measures focus on improving the energy efficiency of existing buildings, developing 
new highly efficient buildings, supporting the adoption of zero-emission heating technologies, and phasing out heating technologies that use 
oil as a fuel.  

A9.3.2 Policies and Measures Analysis 

There are multiple cross-cutting measures identified in Finland for energy efficiency (10). Most of them have been implemented (6) and 3 of 
them have an economic or regulatory focus. Cross-cutting measures include energy efficiency agreements, energy audits, an energy aid 
scheme, communication and training and the provision of funding. 

There are 5 energy efficiency measures focused on the building sector in Finland’s draft NECP, two of which have already been 
implemented. Three of them are described as having a regulatory focus. While two of these policies are broad and cover all types of 
buildings (i.e. residential, commercial and public), three are specific for the public sector. The description of these three policies is in fact 
quite broad and does not refer to actions but rather exploring possible solutions.  

While some of the cross-sectoral policies are expected to affect the industrial sector, based on the JRC assessment, there are no specific 
policies in Finland’s NECP focused on the industry. 

There are two measures for energy efficiency in the transport sector in Finland’s draft NECP. The first one has already been implemented 
and relates to transport fuel taxation, focusing on the promotion of energy savings from excise duty, carbon dioxide-based taxes, strategic 
stockpile fee and value added tax. The second one is planned to be implemented and focuses on improving the energy efficiency of vehicles 
and other means of transportation. 

August 2020  

376 

 
 
 
From the policies implemented with and before NEEAP 3, Finland’s energy efficiency measures were adjudged to be sufficiently cost-
efficient, create a high impact, reach a high number of applicants, benefit from experience with previous measures, have enough potential 
for market transformation, successfully avoid negative side-effects, and to create persistent savings. However, the financial measures 
implemented have little financial independence which might compromise the stability of these programmes and policies. 

A9.3.3 Recommendations 

The top 10 programmes for Finland ranked by the technical energy saving potential are shown in Table A9.10, and the corresponding top 
ESOs are presented in Table A9.11. 

The top two energy saving programmes are from the industrial sector, focusing on machine drives and on process heating in the Paper, Pulp 
and Print sub-sector. These two programmes have the largest energy saving potential by some margin when compared against the next 
programme in the residential sector (space heating in single family houses) as the difference is over 80 ktoe. The fourth and fifth top 
programmes are also from the residential and industrial sectors with a focus on water heating in single family houses and process heating 
from electricity in the Paper, Pulp and Print sector, respectively. All of the top 5 programmes are evaluated as being economic. 

None of the top 10 programmes and ESOs listed in Table A9.10 and Table A9.11 relate to the transport sector. There is just one that targets 
the commercial sector and it focuses on lighting in the Wholesale and Retail sub-sector. 

Existing or planned measures for the transport sector seem to point towards the right direction and to sufficiently address the issue of road 
transportation. Still, these can be further refined to ensure enough specificity and clarity. With regards to the building sector, Finland’s 
policies currently target improving the energy efficiency of existing buildings, supporting the adoption of zero-emission heating technologies, 
and phasing out heating technologies that use oil as a fuel. These could also benefit from further refinement, specifically to target space and 
water heating in single family houses, and to focus on thermal curtains for windows and wall insulation. There is a notable gap to be 
addressed regarding the Industrial and Commercial sectors as there are no existing or planned measures in Finland’s NECP focusing on 
them.  

Table A9.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Finland 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

Industrial 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Electricity - Machine drives 

Industrial 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Other   - Process Heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

Industrial 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Electricity - Process Heating 

305.7 

298.7 

165.4 

149.7 

1.78 

0.23 

2.57 

0.51 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Country 
rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

August 2020  

377 

 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Industrial 

Paper, Pulp and Print - RPP - Process Heating 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Commercial  Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

143.3 

131.4 

117.1 

103.2 

101.8 

10 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles  101.3 

9.75 

0.31 

7.20 

4.04 

2.58 

2.78 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Table A9.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Finland by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Industrial 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Dryer)  Process Heating 

Industrial 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Dryer) 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (Dryer) 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Commercial  Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps 

Space Heating 

Industrial 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans) 

Machine drives 

Industrial 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Residential  Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Hot water heating 

Industrial 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Other 
motors) 

Machine drives 

167.0 

135.9 

110.2 

95.6 

89.8 

84.6 

82.7 

77.3 

74.9 

10 

Industrial 

Boiler right sizing 

Process Heating 

73.1 

To fulfil its 2030 energy efficiency target Finland should: 

50% 

8% 

6% 

8% 

33% 

22% 

37% 

9% 

21% 

49% 

99% 

100% 

74% 

100% 

72% 

74% 

100% 

99% 

89% 

42% 

1.  Improve measures in the building sector, specifically targeting space and water heating in single family houses and focusing on thermal 

curtains for windows and wall insulation. 

2.  Design policies and measures for the Industrial sector with a focus on the Paper, Pulp and Print sub-sector. 

August 2020  

378 

 
 
 
3.  Design policies and measures for the Commercial sector with a focus on Wholesale and Retail. 

4.  Refine policy measures for the transport sector. 

August 2020  

379 

 
 
 
Annex 10  France 

A10.1 Summary 

Table A10.1 

Summary of modelling results for France 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

35,669 

21,767 

30,762 

42,194 

130,391 

 10,619  

 4,538  

 7,846  

 4,694  

 27,697  

 6,420  

 3,102  

 7,593  

 1,934  

 19,049  

30% 

21% 

26% 

11% 

21% 

18% 

14% 

25% 

5% 

15% 

11,851 

August 2020  

380 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A10.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A10.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating 
(5516.8 ktoe) and space heating (3925.2 ktoe). 

Figure A10.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

381 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 7630.5 ktoe. 

Figure A10.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

382 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Space heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use will come from space 
heating (3921.5 ktoe). 

Figure A10.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

383 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 4622.7 ktoe. 

Figure A10.4 

Energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

384 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 25050.0 ktoe (30% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 29248.3 (18% 
energy savings against BAU) ktoe, and actual BAU is 35668.8 ktoe. 

Figure A10.5 

Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for France 

August 2020  

385 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce France’s final energy consumption by 10618.7 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A10.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (47.2 %), natural gas (37.3%) and 
RPP (14.1%) contain the highest technical potential in the primary energy sector. 

Figure A10.6 

Primary energy impacts for France based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

386 

 
 
 
 
 
A10.1.3 

Commercial   

Figure A10.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest energy saving potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use fall under space heating 
(2160.9   ktoe) and water heating (1400.8 ktoe).   

Figure A10.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

387 

 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Figure A10.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. All sectors have 
similar energy saving capabilities over time, with health and education containing the highest saving potential over time. In 2030, health has 
a potential savings of 884.2 ktoe and education 785.5 ktoe. 

Figure A10.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

388 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Water heating and space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
water heating (1250.7 ktoe) and space heating (944.9 ktoe). 

Figure A10.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

389 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. All sectors have 
similar energy saving capabilities over time, with health and education containing the highest saving potential over time. In 2030, health has 
a potential savings of 684.7 ktoe and education 625.9 ktoe. 

Figure A10.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

390 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 17228.7 ktoe (21% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 18665.4 ktoe 
(14% energy savings against BAU), and actual BAU is 21767.1 ktoe. 

Figure A10.11 

 Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for France 

August 2020  

391 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce France’s final energy consumption by 4538.4 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A10.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (68.75%) and natural gas 
(21.37%) contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A10.12  Primary energy impacts for France based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

392 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A10.1.4 

Industrial  

Figure A10.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Process heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under process heating 
(5065 ktoe). 

Figure A10.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

393 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry 
contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, other industry has a potential savings of 1795 ktoe, followed by food and tobacco 
(1176 ktoe) and iron and steel (1159 ktoe). 

Figure A10.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

394 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Process heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use are fall under process 
heating (5065 ktoe).   

Figure A10.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

395 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry 
contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, other industry has a potential savings of 1777 ktoe, followed by food and tobacco 
(1168 ktoe) and iron and steel (1086 ktoe). 

Figure A10.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

396 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 22915.5 ktoe (26% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 23168.3 ktoe 
(25% energy savings against BAU), and actual BAU is 30761.5 ktoe. 

Figure A10.17  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for France 

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce France’s final energy consumption by 7846 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

397 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (23%) and electricity (67%) 
contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A10.18  Primary energy impacts for France based on technical potential for industrial sector 

August 2020  

398 

 
 
 
 
 
A10.1.5 

Transport     

Figure A10.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use will come from private cars (2796.20 
ktoe). 

Figure A10.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

399 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passenger transport will provide potential savings of 3423.44 ktoe. 

Figure A10.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

400 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Private cars contain the highest saving potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are heavy good 
vehicles (939.24 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (890.36 ktoe). However, in 2033, private cars will be the main providers of potential economic 
savings (3126.68 ktoe).  

Figure A10.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

401 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic energy savings will come from freight transport 
(1270.45 ktoe). However, in 2033, the main energy savings will come from passenger transport (3865.99 ktoe). 

Figure A10.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for France based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

402 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A10.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 37192.7 ktoe, economic energy consumption scenario is 40042.5 ktoe, and actual BAU is 42193.95 ktoe.    

Figure A10.23  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for France 

August 2020  

403 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce France ’s final energy consumption by 4693.90 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A10.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (96.79%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

Figure A10.24  Primary energy impacts for France based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

404 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A10.2 Discussion 

A10.2.1 

Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A10.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on hot water heating, space heating and lighting quantified as follows: 

Table A10.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in France 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

2135.1 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

1776.0 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

931.8 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water 
heating 

880.3 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

869.6 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating  781.2 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Lighting 

Single family houses - Electricity - Appliances 

617.6 

508.2 

342.2 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating  331.7 

15.50 

6.09 

10.35 

19.00 

15.45 

6.07 

6.08 

0.79 

3.45 

13.98 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The total technical energy savings from the top 10 programmes shown in Table A10.2 is 9173.7 ktoe by 2030. The largest savings by energy 
end-use are 5148.5 ktoe for hot water heating programmes or 56% of the total shown in Table A10.2. Hot water heating programmes result 
in economic energy savings potential of 1263.5 ktoe by 2030. Space heating programmes comprise three of the top ten programmes in 
Table A10.2, which equates to 34.6% of total technical energy saving potential from the top 10 programmes or 3164.8 ktoe by 2030. 78.2% 
of energy savings from the top 10 are from programmes in single-family homes (7180.5 ktoe by 2030).  

August 2020  

405 

 
 
 
The top energy efficiency programmes within the residential sector are shown in Figure A10.25 and as can be seen all have a high likelihood 
to succeed owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of acceptance with stakeholders 
based on previous measures (scoring range 3.3 – 4.5). When compared with Table A10.2 there are two less hot water heating programmes, 
in favour of an additional lighting programme and space heating programme. The programmes with the highest likelihood of success with a 
score of 4.5 are the lighting energy end-use based programmes for single and multifamily homes. Among the top 10, the programme with 
the lowest likelihood of success for reference is the electricity heating programmer with a score of 3.2. 

Hot water heating programmes also generally the least cost-effective, with the CCE for natural gas and electricity being 15.5 and 10.4 
cent/kWh, respectively. This is reflected in Table A10.2, where only the electric based hot water heating programmes are economic (CCE 
score of 10.4 and 14.0 cent/kWh for single family and multi-family homes, respectively). The most cost-effective programme has a CCE of 
0.56-0.78 cent/kWh and is for the lighting energy end-use. 

Figure A10.25  Top energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in France in 2030 

August 2020  

406 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A10.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Hot water heating. 5 of the top 10 ESOs in Table A10.3 comprise of hot water-based energy end-uses. The ESO type varies from 

reduction in water consumption, replacement energy efficient water heaters and insulation, however in total they present 2739.6 ktoe in 
technical energy savings. For hot water ESOs the high technical potential is as a result of the limited current uptake of such ESOs (0% in 
most cases). 

■  Space heating and hot water heating / Multiple. The combination of these energy end-use groups reflects the ESOs listed in Table 

A10.3, where both ESOs focus on the high-level energy performance of buildings. The uptake of such measures is currently 1% and 
goes onto 41% and 49% respectively leading to a total of 1449.5 ktoe by 2030. 

Table A10.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in France in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current 
uptake 
(2020) 

Future 
uptake 
(2030) 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Residential Lighting Efficiency from Incand. 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Lighting 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code)  Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling 

Water Heater Replacement 

DHW Tank Insulation 

Thermal Curtains 

Air Infiltration 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Space heating 

Space heating, Cooling 

972.2 

689.4 

573.1 

554.2 

483.5 

477.2 

473.1 

449.8 

412.8 

401.6 

1% 

10% 

0% 

0% 

63% 

1% 

0% 

0% 

2% 

1% 

49% 

100% 

34% 

40% 

100% 

41% 

77% 

77% 

42% 

46% 

August 2020  

407 

 
 
 
A10.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A10.4. The technical 
energy saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating and hot water heating quantified as follows: 

Table A10.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in France 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Health - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Education - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Health - Electricity - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating 

Health - Electricity - Water Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Water Heating 

183.9 

182.1 

173.1 

160.1 

148.4 

147.6 

141.9 

140.3 

125.6 

119.7 

6.52 

3.62 

2.77 

9.01 

3.28 

3.47 

31.66 

31.66 

11.22 

9.19 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

8 of the top 10 programmes for energy efficiency within the commercial sector the top technical energy saving can be found in space heating 
(1277.4 ktoe by 2030). This accounts for 83.9% of the technical energy saving potential from the top 10 programmes (1522.7 ktoe by 2030). 
651.2 ktoe, (42.8% as a proportion of the top ten) of the space heating programmes is also deemed to be economic. Water heating 
programmes present technical energy savings of 245.3 ktoe by 2030, all of which is considered as economic. The top 10 programmes are 
spread widely across sub-sectors in France. 

August 2020  

408 

 
 
 
The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the commercial sector are shown in Figure A10.26. All have a moderate-to-high likelihood 
to succeed owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of acceptance with stakeholders 
based on previous measures (scoring range 3.0 – 4.3). The programmes shown in Figure A10.26 show three additional lighting programmes 
than the programmes shown in Table A10.4, in lieu of two space heating and one water heating programmes. Among the top ten 
programmes in France, lighting programmes have the highest likelihood of success with a score of 4.3, whereas space heating programmes 
within the health sub-sector is the least likely to succeed with a score of 3.0-3.3. 

Three of the natural gas space heating programmes (education, hotels & restaurants and wholesale & retail) are the most cost effective 
among the top ten, having CCEs of 2.8 – 3.5 cent/kWh. The least cost-effective programmes among the top ten are those in private and 
public offices, with CCEs of 9.0 and 9.2 cent/kWh. Lighting energy efficiency programmes have CCEs ranging from 3.6 – 3.9 cent/kWh.  

Figure A10.26  Top energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in France in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A10.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

August 2020  

409 

 
 
 
 
■  Hot water heating. 2 ESOs, have impacts only towards water heating energy end-uses. The ESOs target the uptake in faucet aerators 

and insulation jackets and present technical energy savings of 716.2 ktoe by 2030. This is owing to the maximum uptake in such 
measures by 2030 (i.e. 100%). 

■  Space heating and space cooling. There is one specific ESO each for space heating and space cooling energy end-uses. Ground 
source heat pumps can be applied to both space heating and space cooling energy end-uses. The total technical potential from the 3 
ESOs are 633.6 ktoe by 2030, of which 556.1 ktoe is delivered by installation of heat pumps (air-sourced and ground sourced). 

■  Space heating and water heating / Multiple. 4 ESOs, have impacts toward both the space heating and water heating energy end-uses. 
The ESOs are a combination of controls, building recommissioning and new builds. Energy savings from these ESOs total 1164 ktoe of 
which 698.3 ktoe is from the construction of new more energy efficient buildings. Controls based ESOs such as adaptive thermostats 
(which also save cooling energy) and advanced BAS present energy savings of 465.7 ktoe by 2030.  

■  Lighting. Only 1 ESO from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within lighting. This is the uptake of better controls and lead to 
energy savings of 71.4 ktoe within this energy end-use. This is because of the high anticipated uptake of controls within the sector.  

Table A10.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in France in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future 
uptake (2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Faucet Aerators 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Water Heating 

Space Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

617.0 

461.7 

429.8 

332.0 

268.6 

133.7 

Water Heater Jackets                                                                                                                            

Water Heating 

99.2 

Ground Source Heatpump 

Space Heating, Space Cooling 

Energy Recovery Ventilation / Heat 
Recovery Ventilation 

Space Cooling 

94.4 

77.5 

71.4 

10 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting 

August 2020  

0% 

2% 

30% 

30% 

30% 

66% 

0% 

2% 

5% 

66% 

100% 

69% 

63% 

100% 

63% 

100% 

100% 

42% 

76% 

100% 

410 

 
 
 
A10.2.3 

Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A10.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on process heating and machine drives quantified as follows: 

Table A10.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in France 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

627.6 

445.0 

417.5 

406.6 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

280.7 

Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - Electricity - Machine drives 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Electricity - Machine drives 

280.2 

246.4 

242.1 

236.4 

226.9 

0.32 

0.32 

0.38 

1.83 

0.31 

0.50 

0.32 

2.21 

0.27 

1.72 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The total energy savings from the top 10 programmes are 3409.4 ktoe by 2030, of which all of the programmes shown in Table A10.6. are 
considered economic energy savings. Process heating-based programmes present 2529.4 ktoe of energy savings (74.3%), as they make up 
7 of the top 10 programmes. There are 3 machines drives based programmes in Table A10.6, which present economic energy savings of 
880 ktoe by 2030.  6 different sub-sectors are represented within the top 10 programmes; however, the most economic energy savings can 
be found in Other Industry sub-sector which present savings of 1314.4 ktoe by 2030. 

All programmes shown in  Figure A10.27 have a high likelihood of success owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the 
programme and high political feasibility of implementing the energy efficiency measures as seen in Figure A10.27 (Score range of 4.0-4.1). 
Machine drives programmes have the highest likelihood of success with a score of 4.1, whilst fossil fuel-based process heating programmes 
have a score of 4.0.  

August 2020  

411 

 
 
 
The most cost-effective programme of the top 10, is process heating (natural gas fuel based) in the Petroleum refineries sub-sector with a 
CCE of 0.3 cent/kWh. By comparison the most expensive of the top 10 programmes save are the machine drive programmes which have a 
CCE of 1.8 cent/kWh, however all programmes are well below their respective retail fuel tariffs and are economic.  

Figure A10.27  Top energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in France in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A10.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

August 2020  

412 

 
 
 
 
 
 
■  Process Heating. 7 of the top 10 ESOs, focus on process heating. The main retrofits are surrounding boiler and furnace energy 

consumption reduction by flue gas monitoring, boiler load management and correct sizing of the boiler unit as they can be applied to all 
fossil fuel based ESOs (1368 ktoe). Control based measures, include advanced process and heating control in furnaces present 339.1 
ktoe in energy savings.  

■  Machine drive. 3 ESOs for uptake in adjustable speed drive for efficiency control in fans, pumps and other motors have a technical 

potential of 730 ktoe. 

Table A10.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in France in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use 
category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans) 

Machine drives 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Other motors) 

Machine drives 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Pumps) 

Machine drives 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

417.0 

343.7 

343.7 

339.1 

269.0 

264.4 

254.2 

236.6 

224.3 

220.0 

51% 

50% 

50% 

37% 

22% 

31% 

60% 

22% 

33% 

31% 

August 2020  

100% 

93% 

93% 

90% 

100% 

89% 

100% 

89% 

97% 

81% 

413 

 
 
 
 
A10.2.4 

Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A10.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on private cars, heavy goods vehicles, and light duty vehicles quantified as follows: 

Table A10.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in France 

Programme Name 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

2760.1 

927.6 

552.5 

327.3 

66.9 

36.1 

11.7 

6.6 

3.9 

1.2 

7.72 

2.46 

2.68 

5.13 

0.48 

0.87 

0.22 

3.62 

6.92 

0.11 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The top energy efficiency programmes transport sector in France are shown in Table A10.8. The programmes with the highest technical 
energy saving potential are the programmes addressing energy efficiency in private cars (2796.2 ktoe). Private cars hold significant technical 
energy saving potential as they account for 59.6% of savings from Table A10.8 however only 36.1 ktoe is considered as economic energy 
saving potential.  Heavy goods vehicles programme present 939.2 ktoe or 20% of the total technical potential from programmes listed in 
Table A10.8. However, all of these energy savings are evaluated as economic, which is a similar result for light duty vehicles programmes. 4 
programmes for light duty vehicles present economic energy savings of 890.4 ktoe by 2030.  

Figure A10.28 displays the top energy efficiency programmes for the transport sector in France, where only 6 are being displayed as the 
normalised technical potential means 4 programmes have been given a score of 0. All programmes have a high likelihood of success owing 
to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing the energy efficiency 
measures (scoring range between 3.8 – 4.2). The programme with the highest likelihood of is heavy good vehicles with a score of 4.2. The 
programme with the lowest score is a passenger transport private car with score of 3.75.  

August 2020  

414 

 
 
 
 
The least cost-effective programme is addressing the energy savings in passenger transport private cars with a CCE of 7.72 cent/kWh. 
Compare this with the most cost-effective programme for public road transport programme where the CCE is 0.48 cent/kWh.  

Figure A10.28  Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in France in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A10.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private cars. The top 3 ESOs for this sector are for the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved 

efficiency). The uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 6% and a high future uptake of 63% leading to a technical energy saving of 
2789.7 ktoe. All of the top ESOs have a low current uptake and high future uptake, owing to the technical potential of the vehicle fleet 
renewal rate being consistently high.  

■  Light Duty Vehicles. There are 3 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles. They present a technical saving potential 

totalling 869.3 ktoe by 2030.  

August 2020  

415 

 
 
 
 
■  Heavy Goods Vehicles. 4 of the top 10 ESOs are heavy goods vehicles based, which present technical energy savings of 803.6 ktoe by 

2030. This is as a result of 36% increased uptake in the ESOs for this end-use. 

Table A10.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in France in 2030 

Secto
r 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

 Private cars and public 
road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

1191.7 

851.2 

746.8 

383.9 

271.0 

242.2 

224.6 

214.5 

187.1 

149.7 

6% 

6% 

6% 

5% 

5% 

5% 

5% 

5% 

5% 

5% 

63% 

63% 

63% 

49% 

49% 

48% 

48% 

49% 

48% 

48% 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

A10.3 Recommendations 

A10.3.1 

Policy Review 

France’s primary energy consumption target was described as modest and its final energy consumption adequate to contribute to the EU’s 
2030 energy efficiency targets. France is targeting a national contribution of 201.8 Mtoe primary and 124.9 Mtoe final energy consumption by 
2030. The final energy consumption by 2030 is a 20% reduction of that from 2012. 

August 2020  

416 

 
 
 
 
As buildings are the highest contributor nationally to energy consumption, France was recommended to improve the energy efficiency of 
buildings within its draft NECP. With 20% of the building stock described as "thermal sieves", the priority is to improve insulation measures. 
Heating systems have also been shown to be inefficient and requiring upgrade. The NECP details how France plans to tighten up building 
codes, widen energy audits for businesses and implement financial measures for the renovation of low-income households. France already 
has multiple funding instruments here. As part of its long-term renovation strategy for buildings, more ambitious policies and measures are 
needed to improve the energy performance of buildings. 

The second energy consuming sector in France is Transport. The High Council for the Climate of France has announced that France won't 
meet the transport emissions 20 target. France has made a revision to the "bonus-malus" vehicle system, resulting in more polluting cars 
becoming more expensive. Future policies intend to reduce transport emissions by 37.5% by 2030. Furthermore, a ban on fossil fuel 
vehicles has been announced for 2040. The NECP details any transport initiatives including low emission zones and investments in rail and 
water transport infrastructure. Financial policies to support this transition are in place, though several billion are still needed to achieve the 
target. 

France is engaged in the field of greening its budget and issuing green financial products, it is a leader in Europe for the issuance of green 
bonds. However, these efforts need to do be ramped up in order to breach the gap of 10 to 30 billion euro of annual investments needed. 
Policy measures are required to mobilise private capital, using public funds for areas where action is as of yet not commercially viable.  

The EU semester report recommends that work be done in the development and deployment of low carbon technologies. As nuclear is a 
pervasive electricity source in France, the renewable energy industry hasn’t developed and the country will not meet its 2020 renewable 
energy target by 6.7%.  

A10.3.2 

Policies and Measure analysis 

France has 38 policies and measures related to energy efficiency.  

Two of these measures are cross-sectoral. These are both planned regulatory measures, the first being the implementation of an Energy 
Efficiency Obligation scheme to implement improvements across sectors, and the second more impactful policy is Carbon Pricing, with the 
inclusion of a floor price for carbon harmonisation at the European level.  

There are 12 measures for the building sector. Two of these apply to all building sectors and intend to provide information to all parties on 
energy efficiency measures and regulate all new builds to a minimum renewable heat contribution. The residential building sector has eight 
support measures, all of which fiscal, six are already implemented along with two planned. These are notably tax cuts and financial aid 
provided for energy efficient renovation works. The tertiary building sector has two regulatory policies in place. The package of measures 
provides great financial support to residential buildings but does not provide a regulatory target for existing residential buildings to renovate. 
For tertiary buildings regulatory targets are in place but no financial mechanisms to reach them. 

August 2020  

417 

 
 
 
There are 14 measures relating for the transport sector, two of which implemented. These act on multiple mechanisms, with five fiscal 
policies, six regulatory policies and 3 planning policies. The packages have been well balanced. Switching to low emitting vehicles has been 
incentivised with the ban of fossil vehicle sales in 2040, the regulatory system of "bonus-malus", revised to favour the purchase of less 
emitting vehicles, whilst a grant is in place to purchase these same vehicles. Other policies aim to incentivise alternative transport methods 
such as 2-3-wheeled vehicles and car-sharing through both regulatory and fiscal measures. The measures are complimentary for personal 
transport, but no measures are in detailed for the decarbonisation of goods transport. 

There are 10 policies in the industrial sector, these spread across regulation (2), information and auditing measures (2), fiscal policies (4) 
and research development (2). The measures complement each other with the opening of an Energy efficiency operation certification 
scheme, enabled through energy auditing and the provision of loans and grants for decarbonisation works. Regulation is also planned to 
phase out and ban coal fired power plants by 2022. Research programmes and demonstrations are set out for the steel industry to develop 
low carbon furnace alternatives. 

From the policies implemented with and before NEEAP 3, France's energy efficiency measures were adjudged to be only moderately 
impactful, with regards to the amount of energy savings and applicants to the measures. France has been very successful at promoting an 
energy service market and suitably overcoming barriers to energy efficiency. These measures have also supported other positive side 
effects. However, the ease of acceptance of the measure by stakeholders has been very mixed, and the financial measures have not always 
proven to be stable enough for refinancing.  

A10.3.3 

Recommendations 

The top 10 programmes for France by technical energy savings are shown in Table A10.10. The corresponding top ESOs are presented in 
Table A10.11. The highest energy saving technical potential program identified is with regards to the efficiency of private cars, and the fifth is 
with regards to freight vehicles. This program on private cars has the largest energy saving potential by some margin when compared 
against the next programme in the residential water heating as the difference is over 500 ktoe. The programme to reduce energy 
consumption in private cars is evaluated as being uneconomic. Three of the top four ESOs in France are aligned with the priority of 
improving vehicle efficiency. 

The second to fourth programme with the most technical potential is focussed on saving energy from hot water heating and space heating in 
the residential sector (by gas and electricity respectively). The hot water heating programme delivers the highest savings but is not 
economically viable for 2030. The electrical water heating and space heating program is economically viable. This aligns with the ESOs 
identified, where the second highest technical potential energy saving measure for France is Net zero homes. The fifth, seventh and eight 
measures on the ESOs are low flow shower heads, wastewater heat recovery and active solar water heating systems, attesting to the 
alignment between policy programmes and technical solutions. These three measures would deliver 1,744.3 ktoe of savings by 2030. 

August 2020  

418 

 
 
 
The tertiary sector has not been identified as delivering significant gains through a program. However, ESO to install faucet aerator has been 
identified as a technical potential energy saving of 617 ktoe, with a high uptake rate. As the tertiary sector has building targets in place, a 
financial incentive could be placed to encourage faucet aerator uptake.  

Table A10.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in France 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport  Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

2760.1 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  2135.1 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

1776.0 

Residential  Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Transport  Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods 

931.8 

927.6 

vehicles 

7.72 

15.50 

6.09 

10.35 

2.46 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water 

880.3 

19.00 

No 

heating 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

869.6 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating  781.2 

Industrial  Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

10 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

627.6 

617.6 

15.45 

6.07 

0.32 

6.08 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Table A10.11 

Top 10 ESOs for France by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current 
uptake 
(2020) 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

Residential  Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, 
Space heating 

1191.7 

972.2 

6% 

1% 

1 

2 

August 2020  

Future 
uptake 
(2030) 

63% 

100% 

419 

 
 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current 
uptake 
(2020) 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (4%) 

 Private cars 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (3%) 

 Private cars,  Public 
road transport 

851.2 

746.8 

Residential  Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

689.4 

Commercia
l 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

617.0 

Residential  Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems  Hot water heating 

573.1 

Residential  Active Solar Water Heating Systems  Hot water heating 

554.2 

Residential  Residential Lighting Efficiency from 

Lighting 

Incand. 

10 

Residential  Energy Efficient Homes (20% above 

code) 

Space heating, Hot 
water heating, 
Cooling 

483.5 

477.2 

6% 

6% 

10% 

0% 

0% 

0% 

63% 

1% 

Future 
uptake 
(2030) 

100% 

49% 

63% 

63% 

34% 

40% 

100% 

100% 

To fulfil its 2030 energy efficiency target France should: 

1.  Reinforce efforts to decarbonise transport, improving energy efficiency of vehicles, notably for the transport of goods where few policy 

measures are in place to incentivise change and no finance mechanisms are provided 

2.  Increase the ambition for residential efficiency, notably by regulating an energy efficiency target for existing buildings and finance 

incentives for the building of net zero ready buildings. Significant gains can be reached by increasing efficiency of water heating 
technologies.  

3.  Provide finance mechanisms to increase tertiary energy efficiency. 

August 2020  

420 

 
 
 
 
 
Annex 11  Germany 

A11.1 Summary 

Table A11.1 

Summary of modelling results for Germany 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

52,360 

26,239 

64,145 

43,017 

185,761 

 14,886  

 5,195  

 15,849  

 4,884  

 40,813  

 9,592  

 4,770  

 15,318  

 4,884  

 34,564  

28% 

20% 

25% 

11% 

22% 

18% 

18% 

24% 

11% 

19% 

17,400 

August 2020  

421 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A11.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A11.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating (6072.2 ktoe) and space 
heating (8395.2 ktoe).   

Figure A11.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

422 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 9336.3 ktoe. 

Figure A11.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

423 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. Hot 
water heating and space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use come 
from space heating (8335.3 ktoe).   

Figure A11.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

424 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential over time based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 5915.2 ktoe. 

Figure A11.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

425 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 37473.6 ktoe (28% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 42767.7 ktoe, 
(18% energy savings against BAU) and actual BAU is 52359.7 ktoe. 

Figure A11.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Germany 

August 2020  

426 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Germany’s final energy consumption by 14886.1 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A11.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (57%), RPP (24%) and 
electricity (14%) contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A11.6 

Primary energy impacts for Germany based on technical potential for Residential sector 

August 2020  

427 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A11.1.3 

Commercial   

Figure A11.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (2786.8 ktoe) 
and water heating (1230.4 ktoe), followed closely by lighting (898.4 ktoe). 

Figure A11.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

428 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Education and 
wholesale and retail trade contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, education will have potential savings of 1316.5 ktoe and 
wholesale and retail 1468.7 ktoe. 

Figure A11.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

429 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Water heating, space heating, and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by 
end use are space heating (2540.1 ktoe) and water heating (1072.2 ktoe), followed closely by lighting (898.4 ktoe). 

Figure A11.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

430 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of wholesale and retail trade are 1303.7 ktoe, 
followed by education (1254.2 ktoe). 

Figure A11.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

431 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 21044.3 ktoe (20% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 21468.9 ktoe 
(18% energy savings against BAU), and actual BAU is 26239.0 ktoe. 

Figure A11.11  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Germany 

August 2020  

432 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Germany’s final energy consumption by 5194.7 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A11.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (51.41%), natural gas (27.92%) 
and RPP (17.36%) contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A11.12  Primary energy impacts for Germany based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

433 

 
 
 
 
 
A11.1.4 

Industrial     

Figure A11.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under process heating (10541 ktoe).  

Figure A11.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

434 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Chemicals and 
petrochemicals contain the highest potential savings over time, followed by iron and steel. In 2030, chemicals and petrochemicals will have 
potential energy savings of 3302 ktoe, followed by iron and steel with potential energy savings of 2799 ktoe. 

Figure A11.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

435 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Process heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use fall under process 
heating (10541 ktoe). 

Figure A11.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

436 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Chemicals and 
petrochemicals contain the highest potential savings over time, followed by iron and steel. In 2030, chemicals and petrochemicals will have 
potential economic energy savings of 3070 ktoe, followed by iron and steel with potential energy savings of 2629 ktoe. 

Figure A11.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

437 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 48296.4 ktoe (25% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 48827.4 ktoe, 
(24% energy savings against BAU) and actual BAU is 64145.2 ktoe. 

Figure A11.17  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Germany 

August 2020  

438 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Germany’s final energy consumption by 15848.8 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A11.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (33%) and electricity (53%) 
contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A11.18  Primary energy impacts for Germany based on technical potential for industrial sector 

A11.1.5 

Transport     

Figure A11.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy saving by end use fall under private cars (3313.87 ktoe). 

August 2020  

439 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A11.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passport transport is expected to provide potential energy savings of 
3636.41 ktoe. 

August 2020  

440 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A11.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Private cars contain the highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy saving by end use fall under private 
cars (3313.87 ktoe). 

August 2020  

441 

 
 
 
 
Figure A11.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

442 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passport transport is expected to provide potential energy savings of 
3636.41 ktoe. 

Figure A11.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Germany based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

443 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 38133.07 ktoe, economic energy consumption scenario is 38133.07 ktoe, and actual BAU is 43017.07 ktoe.    

Figure A11.23  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Germany 

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Germany ’s final energy consumption by 4883.99 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A11.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (97.96%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

444 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A11.24  Primary energy impacts for Germany based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

445 

 
 
 
 
A11.2 Discussion 

A11.2.1 

Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A11.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating and hot water heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A11.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Germany 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

3281.8 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

2306.3 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

2105.0 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  1324.8 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

1260.8 

1079.1 

938.7 

523.9 

449.2 

316.1 

3.19 

8.43 

3.16 

10.49 

3.19 

8.28 

3.14 

10.36 

5.15 

1.55 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

The largest savings are for space heating programmes which present economic savings of 7902.5 ktoe by 2030. Space heating programmes 
comprise 5 of the top 10 programmes in Table A11.2, which equates to 58% of total technical energy saving potential or 13585.8 ktoe by 
2030. Hot water heating programmes make up the other 5 programmes within the Table A11.2 and present 5683.4 ktoe by 2030, however 
only 449.2 ktoe is evaluated as being economic saving potential or 3.5% of the top 10 programmes. 64% of energy savings from the top 10 
are from programmes in single-family homes (8693.4 ktoe by 2030). 

August 2020  

446 

 
 
 
The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the residential sector are shown in Figure A11.25 and all have a high likelihood to succeed 
owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of acceptance with stakeholders based on 
previous measures. When compared with Table A11.2 there are fewer water heating programmes present however the space heating and 
hot water heating remain the predominant energy end uses. The programmes with the highest likelihood of success with a score of 4.6 are 
single- and multifamily houses electricity lighting programmes. Among the top 10, the programmes with the lowest likelihood of success were 
all space heating focussed with a score of 3.4. 

The programmes with the highest likelihood of success also are the most cost-effective; lighting in single- and multifamily homes have CCEs 
of 0.5 and 0.36 cent/kWh, respectively. The least cost-effective programme all are those involving natural gas and RRP, with CCEs ranging 
from 3.1 cent/kWh to 8.4 cent/kWh. 

Figure A11.25  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Germany in 2030 

August 2020  

447 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A11.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating and hot water heating / Multiple. The combination of these energy end-use groups reflects the ESOs listed in Table 
A11.3 where both ESOs focus on the high-level energy performance of buildings. The uptake of such measures is currently 10% and 
goes onto 50% and 57% respectively leading to a total of 3014.4 ktoe by 2030 – the largest technical potential among end-use 
categories. 

■  Space heating. There are 2 specific ESOs which focus on space heating energy end-use. They are thermal curtains for windows, and 

basement wall insulation, which present 1649.9 ktoe technical energy savings by 2030. 

■  Hot water heating. 3 ESOs of the top 10 comprise of hot water-based energy end-uses. The ESOs focus on reduction of water 

consumption, recovery of wastewater systems and solar water heaters present 2372.8 ktoe technical energy savings. 

■  Space heating and cooling. 3 ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within space heating and space cooling. These 
measures focus on the improvement of building envelopment performance, with wall insulation having the highest technical potential. In 
total the technical energy saving potential for ESOs within these end-uses is 2361.2 ktoe.  

Table A11.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Germany in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

2033.4 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Hot water heating 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code)  Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling 

Thermal Curtains 

Wall Insulation 

Air Infiltration 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Space heating 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

Hot water heating 

Space heating 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Space heating, Cooling 

991.2 

981.0 

976.4 

900.6 

804.3 

768.3 

673.5 

656.3 

613.4 

10 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Hot water heating 

August 2020  

10% 

50% 

10% 

5% 

36% 

36% 

10% 

36% 

36% 

50% 

57% 

83% 

50% 

45% 

69% 

75% 

100% 

69% 

69% 

90% 

448 

 
 
 
A11.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A11.4. The technical 
energy saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating and lighting quantified as follows: 

Table A11.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Germany 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

Education - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

352.7 

317.1 

314.8 

Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

258.8 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - RPP - Space Heating 

Education - Electricity - Lighting 

Education - RPP - Space Heating 

Other Commercial - RPP - Space Heating 

Education - Electricity - Space Heating 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Lighting 

252.6 

220.6 

169.5 

163.9 

163.5 

156.2 

2.04 

1.65 

2.86 

3.99 

2.04 

3.01 

1.65 

3.99 

19.13 

3.07 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

7 of the top 10 programmes for energy efficiency within the commercial sector the top technical energy saving can be found in space heating 
(1678.2 ktoe by 2030). This accounts for 70.8% of the technical energy saving potential from the top 10 programmes (2369.9 ktoe by 2030). 
All energy savings in Table A11.4 are evaluated as being economic. Lighting programmes account for 3 of the top 10 programmes and 
present economic energy saving potential of 691.6 ktoe by 2030. The top 10 programmes are dominated by three commercial sub-sectors; 
Wholesale & Retail Trade (3 programmes), Education (4 programmes) and Other commercial (3 programmes) which have a technical 
energy saving potential of 920.1 ktoe, 870.8 ktoe and 579 ktoe respectively.  

August 2020  

449 

 
 
 
The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the commercial sector are shown in Figure A11.26. All have a high likelihood to succeed 
owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of acceptance with stakeholders based on 
previous measures. The programmes shown in Figure A11.26 have a similar blend of energy end-uses as Table A11.4, with one education 
space heating programme being replaced by one health lighting programme. Lighting programmes have the highest likelihood of success 
with a score of 4.2, whereas space heating programmes within the education and commercial sub-sectors is the least likely to succeed with 
a score of 3.0. 

The most cost-effective programmes from the top 10 is space heating programmes in the education sub-sector with CCEs of 1.7 cent/kWh. 
The least cost-effective programmes are space heating programmes in Other Commercial with CCEs of 4.0 cent/kWh. Both are still 
considered economic. Lighting programmes have CCEs of 2.9 – 3.1 cent/kWh. 

Figure A11.26  Top energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Germany in 2030 

August 2020  

450 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A11.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating. The top ESO for the top 10 is focussed on space heating energy end-use. Installation of heat pumps for commercial 
applications, presents 715.1 ktoe of energy savings by 2030. This is because the current uptake was analysed to be very low (5%) 
respectively and future uptake reaching nearly 72%.  

■  Space heating and water heating / Multiple. 5 ESOs, have impacts toward both the space heating and water heating energy end-uses. 
The ESOs are a combination of controls, building recommissioning and new builds. Energy savings from these ESOs total 1410.5 ktoe of 
which 692.2 ktoe is from the construction of new more energy efficient buildings. Controls based ESOs such as adaptive thermostats 
(which also save cooling energy) and advanced BAS present energy savings of 523.4 ktoe by 2030.  

■  Hot water heating. 2 ESOs, have impacts only towards water heating energy end-uses. The ESOs result in technical energy savings of 

520.2 ktoe.  

■  Lighting. 2 ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within lighting. Both lighting measures focus on better controls and 
lead to energy savings of 315.2 ktoe within this energy end-use. This is because of the high anticipated uptake of controls within the 
sector.  

Table A11.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Germany in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future 
uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps 

Space Heating 

New Construction – 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Space Heating, Water Heating, Space 
Cooling 

10 

Electric Ground-Source Heat Pumps 

Water Heating 

715.1 

426.0 

421.2 

373.0 

266.2 

195.0 

158.8 

156.5 

150.3 

99.1 

August 2020  

5% 

74% 

50% 

26% 

74% 

74% 

26% 

26% 

26% 

5% 

72% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

93% 

72% 

451 

 
 
 
A11.2.3 

Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A11.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on process heating and machine drives quantified as follows: 

Table A11.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Germany 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

1121.9 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - Process Heating  977.4 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

884.0 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Electricity - Machine drives 

676.8 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Machinery - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Machine drives 

602.7 

490.4 

484.2 

480.2 

457.0 

448.1 

0.22 

0.21 

0.22 

1.15 

0.19 

0.26 

0.22 

1.22 

0.26 

1.10 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The total energy savings from the top 10 programmes are 6622.8 ktoe by 2030, of which all of the programmes shown in Table A11.6. are 
considered economic energy savings. Process heating-based programmes present 5017.7 ktoe of energy savings (75.7%), as they make up 
7 of the top 10 programmes. There are 3 machines drives based programmes in Table A11.6, which present economic energy savings of 
1605.1 ktoe by 2030.  7 different sub-sectors are represented within the top 10 programmes; however, the most economic energy savings 
can be found in Chemicals and Petrochemicals sub-sector which present savings of 1654.2 ktoe by 2030. 

All programmes have a high likelihood of success owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political 
feasibility of implementing the energy efficiency measures as seen in Figure A11.27 (Score range of 3.6-3.8). Machine drives programmes 
have the highest likelihood of success with a score of 3.8, whilst fossil fuel-based process heating programmes have a score of 3.6.  

August 2020  

452 

 
 
 
The most cost-effective programme of the top 10, is process heating (natural gas fuel based) in the Petroleum refineries sub-sector with a 
CCE of 0.19 cent/kWh. By comparison the most expensive of the top 10 programmes save are the machine drive programmes which have a 
CCE of 1.22 cent/kWh, however all programmes are well below their respective retail fuel tariffs and are economic.  

Figure A11.27  Top energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Germany in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A11.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

August 2020  

453 

 
 
 
 
 
 
■  Process Heating. 8 of the top 10 ESOs, focus on process heating. The main retrofits are surrounding boiler and furnace energy 

consumption reduction by flue gas monitoring, boiler load management and correct sizing of the boiler unit as they can be applied to all 
fossil fuel based ESOs (3061 ktoe). Control based measures, include advanced process and heating control in furnaces present 854.8 
ktoe in energy savings.  

■  Machine drive. 2 ESOs for uptake in adjustable speed drive for efficiency control in fans and other motors have a technical potential of 

927 ktoe. 

Table A11.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Germany in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use 
category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans) 

Machine drives 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Other motors) 

Machine drives 

952.1 

854.8 

707.6 

707.6 

693.8 

564.2 

542.3 

514.6 

488.4 

438.7 

51% 

37% 

50% 

50% 

31% 

11% 

31% 

60% 

22% 

22% 

August 2020  

100% 

90% 

94% 

94% 

89% 

79% 

81% 

100% 

100% 

90% 

454 

 
 
 
 
A11.2.4 

Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A11.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on private cars, heavy goods vehicles, and light duty vehicles quantified as follows: 

Table A11.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Germany 

Programme Name 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

3272.8 

970.9 

259.7 

241.6 

77.7 

41.1 

14.8 

2.2 

2.0 

1.3 

6.83 

2.27 

2.62 

2.47 

0.26 

0.96 

0.24 

4.42 

4.16 

0.08 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The top energy efficiency programmes transport sector in Germany are shown in Table A11.8. The programmes with the highest technical 
energy saving potential are the programmes addressing energy efficiency in private cars (3313.9 ktoe). Private cars hold significant technical 
energy saving potential as they account for 68% of savings from Table A11.8 however only 41.1 ktoe is considered as economic energy 
saving potential.  Heavy goods vehicles programme present 985.7 ktoe or 20% of the technical potential from programmes listed in Table 
A11.8. However, all of these energy savings are evaluated as economic, which is a similar result for light duty vehicles programmes. 4 
programmes for light duty vehicles present economic energy savings of 505.5 ktoe by 2030.  

Figure A11.28 displays the top energy efficiency programmes for the transport sector in Germany, where only 6 are being displayed as the 
normalised technical potential means 4 programmes have been given a score of 0. All programmes have a high likelihood of success owing 

August 2020  

455 

 
 
 
 
 
to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing the energy efficiency 
measures (scoring range between 3.8-4.2). The programme with the highest likelihood of success is heavy good vehicles with a score of 4.2. 
The programme with the lowest score is a passenger transport private car with a score of 3.8.  

The least cost-effective programme is addressing the energy savings in passenger transport in private cars with a CCE of 6.8 cent/kWh. 
Compare this with the most cost-effective passenger transport, public road transport programme where the CCE is 0.26 cent/kWh.  

Figure A11.28  Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Germany in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A11.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private cars. The top 3 ESOs for this sector are for the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved 

efficiency). The uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 7% and a high future uptake of 66% leading to a technical energy saving of 
3308 ktoe. All of the top ESOs have a low current uptake and high future uptake, owing to the technical potential of the vehicle fleet 
renewal rate being consistently high.  

August 2020  

456 

 
 
 
 
■  Heavy Goods Vehicles. 4 of the top 10 ESOs are Heavy Goods Vehicles based, which present technical energy savings of 838.9 ktoe 

by 2030. This is as a result of 36% uptake in the ESOs for this end-use. 

■  Light Duty Vehicles. There are 3 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles. They present a technical saving potential 

totalling 497.1 ktoe by 2030.  

Table A11.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Germany in 2030 

Secto
r 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

 Private cars and public 
road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

1413.8 

1009.9 

884.3 

252.8 

234.5 

219.5 

195.4 

156.3 

154.9 

122.7 

7% 

7% 

7% 

4% 

4% 

7% 

4% 

4% 

7% 

7% 

66% 

66% 

66% 

40% 

40% 

70% 

40% 

40% 

70% 

70% 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

A11.3 Recommendations 

A11.3.1 

Policy Review  

Although Germany’s national target for energy efficiency is to halve the primary energy consumption by 2050 from a 2008 baseline, its 
draft NECP lacked clarity in the area of energy efficiency, and how this would contribute to the Union’s 2030 target. The Commission 

August 2020  

457 

 
 
 
 
commented that the draft NECP was lacking detail on future energy efficiency measures and policies beyond 2020, and its energy 
efficiency section was largely incomplete.  

Germany is investing in the energy efficiency of buildings, but aside from residential, improvements in the energy efficiency of business, 
commerce and services did not change. The Energy Concept aims to reduce heating demand in buildings by 20% by 2020, compared to 
2008.   

The Energy Efficiency Strategy for Buildings 2015 strives to renovate existing housing stock by using energy efficiency measures and 
increasing renewable energy uptake.  

In the transport and industrial sectors, final energy consumption increased. This needs to be addressed so that Germany can use energy 
efficiency to contribute to the Union’s 2030 target and indeed its own National Climate Plan 2050. The transport sector in particular is a 
challenge, because decision-makers are not accepting the necessary changes1.  

The transport sector is influenced by the National Platform Future of Mobility (Mobility Commission). This Commission’s working group 
published an interim report in March 2019 demonstrating a commitment to 7-10.5 million electric vehicles and electrified trucks and 
buses. Increased energy efficiency by 30% compared to 2015 of fossil-fuel internal combustion engine cars, by 2030. Increased rail and 
bus support, walking and cycling among other initiatives. The report did not detail policy measures and no progress has been made to 
implement these measures.   

Germany plans to phase out power generation from coal by 2038.  

Germany should consider detailing measures and policies to form part of a coherent and robust plan for long-term renovation of 
buildings, including nearly zero-energy buildings. The Commission recommended it also detail better transport policies and measures 
that contribute to energy efficiency.  

A11.3.2 

Policy and Measures Analysis  

Germany has over thirty measures related to energy efficiency.  There is one policy related specifically to the residential sector and one 
to the commercial sector. The residential sector has an implemented, informational policy concerning on-site energy renovation advice. 
The informational nature of this policy means its impact is limited compared to some of the other, regulatory buildings measures which 
overlap the residential sector.  

Residential policy in Germany is generally strong considering the many aspects of successful policy. The one weakness of its financial 
based, residential policies is the ease and stability of re-financing.  

August 2020  

458 

 
 
 
  
The one commercial sector measure is energy advice in small and medium enterprises, though Germany did not state which stage of 
implementation this was at, so it was not possible to analyse its strength.  

In the industrial sector there are eight measures and policies. These range from informational, economic, regulatory, educational to fiscal. 
They are relatively strong in their broad range of topics and are mixed in their outcomes as successful policies. For example, although 
generally they have high impact and suitability to overcome energy efficiency barriers, they have incurred negative side effects on some 
policies.  

There are currently zero transport related measures. Energy efficiency this sector should be addressed by appropriate policies.  

There are three cross-sectoral measures and sixteen concerning buildings. Many of these are implemented. Policy for buildings includes 
advisory measures and an incentive programme for energy efficiency. Heat networks and CHP are supported within policy.   

Eight measures were categorised as public and eight non-specified.   

A11.3.3 

Recommendations   

Germany’s top opportunities are in the residential sector in the form of implementing net-zero-ready homes. There are no measures 
which currently address net-zero-ready-homes so Germany should plan and implement policies in this area.  

Energy efficient residential homes is the fifth top ESO for Germany (Table A11.10) and this is something that they are already addressing 
through incentivising energy efficiency in the home and providing on-site energy advice. The programme with the highest technical 
potential which is also cost-effective is in the residential sector. It concerns single family houses and space heating powered by natural 
gas (Table A11.11). Germany should consider regulatory policies which specifically target this area in addition to the information energy 
efficiency advice already available. 

Flue gas monitoring in the industrial sector has the technical potential to save 970 ktoe of energy by 2030. Although Germany has 
multiple measures and policies relating to the industrial sector, the commission commented that the investment and impact of these 
written in their draft NECP was less than the residential sector. Therefore, measures should include high impact ESOs such as flue gas 
monitoring.   

Although the commercial sector measures and policies that Germany reported were few, the sector isn’t included in the highest technical 
and economic potential opportunities for this member state.  

The transport sector has three ESOs within the top ten highest potential impact. Currently, Germany has no transport policies therefore it 
should consider implementing policies concerning improved efficiencies of private cars. If vehicle efficiencies of private cars were 
improved by 5% then Germany could save 1,413.8 ktoe in technical potential by 2030.  

August 2020  

459 

 
 
 
 
Table A11.10 

Top 10 ESOs for Germany by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Residential  Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (4%) 

 Private cars 

Residential  Wastewater Heat Recovery 

Hot water heating 

Systems 

Residential  Energy Efficient Homes (20% 

above code) 

Space heating, Hot water heating, 
Cooling 

Residential  Thermal Curtains 

Space heating 

Residential

Energy Efficient Homes (20% 
above code)  

1003  

Industrial   Flue gas monitoring (boiler)  

970  

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential

Wall Insulation  

10 

Transport  

Improved vehicle efficiency 
private car (3%)  

Table A11.11 

Top 10 Programmes for Germany by 2030 

920  

884  

2033.4 

1413.8 

1009.9 

991.2 

981.0 

976.4 

10%  

51%  

36%  

7%  

10% 

7% 

7% 

50% 

10% 

5% 

50%  

100%  

69%  

66%  

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

1 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

3281.8 

3.19 

Yes 

August 2020  

460 

 
 
 
  
  
Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport  Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

3272.8 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

2306.3 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating  2105.0 

6.83 

8.43 

3.16 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water 

1324.8 

10.49 

heating 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Industrial 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

1260.8 

1121.9 

1079.1 

Industrial  Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - Process 

977.4 

Heating 

3.19 

0.22 

8.28 

0.21 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

10 

Transport  Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods 

970.9 

2.27 

Yes 

vehicles 

To reach its 2030 energy efficiency targets, Germany should:  

1.  Plan and implement policies and measures in the transport sector, which are currently lacking detail.   

2.  Implement regulatory policies in the residential sector to target space heating from natural gas in single family homes. 

3.  Plan and implement policies and measures for net-zero-ready-homes.  

August 2020  

461 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Annex 12  Greece 

A12.1 Summary 

Table A12.1 

Summary of modelling results for Greece 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

3,585 

1,854 

4,375 

5,583 

15,397 

 954  

 802  

 1,054  

 420  

 3,231  

 296  

 615  

 1,011  

 137  

 2,058  

27% 

43% 

24% 

8% 

21% 

8% 

33% 

23% 

2% 

13% 

1,319 

August 2020  

462 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A12.1.2 

Residential    

Figure A12.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating (514.3 
ktoe) and space heating (320.2 ktoe).   

Figure A12.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

463 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 555.3 ktoe. 

Figure A12.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

464 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. Hot 
water heating and space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
hot water heating (149.3 ktoe) and lighting (27.5 ktoe). However, space heating is expected to experience a notable increase in 2036.  

Figure A12.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

465 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 188.0 ktoe. 

Figure A12.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

466 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 2631.3 ktoe (27% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 3289.2 ktoe (8% 
energy savings against BAU), and actual BAU is 3585.1 ktoe. 

Figure A12.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Greece 

August 2020  

467 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Greece’s final energy consumption by 953.8 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A12.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (54.6%) and RPP (33.2%) contain 
the highest technical potential. 

Figure A12.6 

Primary energy impacts for Greece based on technical potential for residential sector 

A12.1.3 

Commercial   

Figure A12.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Lighting contains the highest 
potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are lighting (417.3 ktoe) and water heating 
(200.8 ktoe). 

August 2020  

468 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

469 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, wholesale and retail will have potential energy savings of 491.0 ktoe. 

Figure A12.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

470 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Lighting contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are lighting (417.3 ktoe) 
and water heating (120.8 ktoe). 

Figure A12.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

471 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of wholesale and retail trade will be of 
371.6 ktoe. 

Figure A12.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

472 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1051.2 ktoe (43% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1238.5 ktoe 
(33% energy savings against BAU), and actual BAU is 1853.5 ktoe. 

Figure A12.11  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Greece 

August 2020  

473 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Greece’s final energy consumption by 802.3 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A12.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (96.7%) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

Figure A12.12  Primary energy impacts for Greece based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

474 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A12.1.4 

Industrial     

Figure A12.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use come from process heating (770 ktoe).   

Figure A12.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

475 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Petroleum 
refineries contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, petroleum refineries will have potential savings of (373 ktoe), followed by 
non-ferrous metals (176 ktoe) and other industries (185 ktoe). 

Figure A12.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

476 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Process heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use come from process 
heating (770 ktoe).   

Figure A12.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

477 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Petroleum 
refineries contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, petroleum refineries will have potential economic savings of 368 ktoe, followed by 
non-ferrous metals (160 ktoe) and other industries (180 ktoe). 

Figure A12.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

478 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 3320.5 ktoe (24% reduction against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 3363.6 ktoe (23% 
reduction against BAU), and actual BAU is 4374.6 ktoe.    

Figure A12.17  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Greece 

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Greece’s final energy consumption by 1054 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

479 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (14%), electricity (59%), RPP 
(22%) contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A12.18  Primary energy impacts for Greece based on technical potential for industrial sector 

A12.1.5 

Transport     

Figure A12.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Light duty vehicles contain the 
highest potential energy savings over time, followed closely by private cars and heavy goods vehicles. In 2030, the two highest potential 
energy savings by end use are light duty vehicles (158.71 ktoe) and private cars (138.00 ktoe).   

August 2020  

480 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

481 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passport transport could provide potential savings of 269.14 ktoe. 

Figure A12.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

482 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Light duty vehicles and heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end 
use come from light duty vehicles (113.00 ktoe).  However, in 2041, the highest potential economic savings will come from heavy goods 
vehicles (201.46 ktoe), followed closely by light duty vehicles (190.67 ktoe). 

Figure A12.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

483 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Freight transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, highest potential economic energy savings will come from passenger transport (134.67 
ktoe). However, in 2041, freight transport is expected to report larger potential energy savings (256.65 ktoe). 

Figure A12.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Greece based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

484 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 5162.95 ktoe, economic energy consumption scenario is 5446.70 ktoe, and actual BAU is 5583.33 ktoe. 

Figure A12.23  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Greece 

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Greece ’s final energy consumption by 420.37 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

485 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (95.71%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

Figure A12.24  Primary energy impacts for Greece based on technical potential for transport sector 

A12.2 Discussion 

A12.2.1 

Residential 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A12.2 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in space heating and hot water heating end-use programmes 

August 2020  

486 

 
 
 
 
Table A12.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Greece 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

161.1 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

108.4 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

107.4 

102.7 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

88.1 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water 
heating 

59.1 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  53.7 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

42.1 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water 
heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Lighting 

41.7 

41.0 

20.37 

25.00 

8.40 

8.32 

13.40 

18.04 

20.49 

8.40 

24.95 

1.17 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Hot water heating end-use programmes account for 6 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes. As a result, they have the highest 
savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 805.3 ktoe in of total savings, of which hot water heating accounts for 512.1 
ktoe (64%) of that total. However, only 147.2 ktoe of hot water heating measures (18.2% of the total) will be economic by 2030, as only 
electricity hot water heating is predicted to be economic by 2030. In total, 440.3 ktoe (55%) of technical potential is predicted to be economic 
by 2030 from the top 10. The end-use with the second highest potential technical saving is space heating programmes. They make up 252.2 
ktoe (31.0%) of the total, and all is economic by 2030. 

August 2020  

487 

 
 
 
Figure A12.25 shows the top energy efficiency programmes. Three out of six hot water programmes which were part of the top 10 technical 
potential are present in Figure A12.25. In their place there is an additional programme in each of the space heating, appliances and lighting 
end-uses. Of end-uses, lighting is clearly the most cost effective, reflected by cost effectiveness scores of 4.8-4.9. Among the top 10 
programmes in Figure A12.25, RRP hot water heating programmes tend to be the least cost-effective but have high technical potential. 

In addition to being the most cost-effective, lighting programmes have the highest likelihood of success (score 4.5/5), owing to their cost-
effectiveness and simplicity. Space heating programmes tend to have the lowest likelihood of success among the top 10 programmes, with 
scores of 3.3/5. 

Figure A12.25  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Greece in 2030 

August 2020  

488 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A12.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Hot Water Heating. Hot water heating end-use ESOs account for 6 of the top 10 ESOs and have total technical potential energy savings 
by 2030 of 332.8 ktoe. Low-flow shower heads account for 70.4 ktoe, owing to low current uptake (10%) and high future uptake (100%). 
Large increases in uptake account for 4 of the 4 hot water heating ESOs, and it is only wastewater heat recovery systems (33% 
increase) and active solar water heating systems (40%) which have an increase less than 77%. 

■  Space Heating and Hot Water Heating – Space heating and hot water heating accounts for 1 ESO in the top 10, net zero ready homes, 
and it accounts for 88.8 ktoe in technical potential energy savings. Current uptake is low (1%), hence all savings are attributed to future 
uptake (49%) 

■  Lighting – Lighting end-use ESOs account for 1 of the top 10 ESOs and has total technical potential energy savings by 2030 of 49.3 

ktoe. Residential lighting efficiency contributes all savings towards this total, and the savings are a result of both low current uptake (1%) 
and relatively high future uptake (51%). 

Table A12.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Greece in 2030 

Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Residential Lighting Efficiency from Incand. 

Water Heater Replacement 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code) 

DHW Tank Insulation 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Lighting 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Space heating, Hot water heating, 
Cooling 
Hot water heating 

10 

Heat Pump Water Heater  

Hot water heating 

88.8 

70.4 

51.2 

50.7 

49.3 

44.7 

41.4 

38.6 

38.4 

36.0 

August 2020  

Current 
uptake 
(2020) 

1% 

Future 
uptake 
(2030) 

49% 

10% 

17% 

17% 

1% 

17% 

13% 

1% 

17% 

17% 

100% 

50% 

57% 

51% 

94% 

100% 

41% 

94% 

94% 

489 

 
 
 
A12.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A12.4 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in lighting and water heating end-use programmes 

Table A12.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Greece 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

301.0 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Water Heating  79.9 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

57.2 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Water Heating  49.6 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Refrigeration 

42.1 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Lighting 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Water Heating 

35.1 

30.0 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Space Heating  28.1 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating  22.9 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Space Heating 

19.7 

5.20 

148.98 

5.64 

10.91 

2.04 

5.55 

1.89 

46.30 

46.29 

45.10 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

Lighting end-use programmes form 3 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and have the 
highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 665.5 ktoe in of total savings, of which lighting accounts for 393.2 ktoe 
(59.1%) of that total. All lighting end use programmes will be economic by 2030. The end-use with the second highest technical potential 
savings is water heating. It makes up 159.5 ktoe (24.0%) although only 79.9 ktoe (50.1%) is expected to be economic. This is because 
electricity water heating in wholesale & retail trade accounts for 86.2 ktoe, but is not expected to be economic. The total top 10 savings 
expected to be economic by 2030 is 515 ktoe (77.4%).  

August 2020  

490 

 
 
 
Figure A12.26 presents the top energy efficiency programmes for the commercial sector, and due to low cost effectiveness, all space 
heating programmes are not included in the top energy efficiency programmes. In addition to this, electric hot water heating for wholesale & 
retail trade and hotels & restaurants is not included. This is demonstrated by the only hot water programme featured in the top energy 
efficiency programmes which, due to a CCE of 11.76 cent/kWh, has a cost effectiveness score of 0.0. As a result, lighting and water heating 
programmes make up the majority of top efficiency programmes, with cost effectiveness scores between 2.2-4.5. All programmes have a 
high likelihood of success (3.7 – 4.7), owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of 
implementing energy efficiency measures. 

Figure A12.26  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Greece in 2030 

August 2020  

491 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A12.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Lighting. Lighting end-use ESOs account for 6 of the top 10 ESOs and have total technical potential energy savings by 2030 of 315.6 
ktoe. This is due to low current uptake (1-2%) and high future uptake (100%). Efficient high bay lighting provides greater savings than 
lighting controls.  

■  Hot Water Heating. Faucet aerators is the single greatest ESO has a total technical potential energy savings by 2030 of 93.4 ktoe. This 

is due to an increase in uptake of 83%. 

■  Space Heating and Hot Water Heating. Space heating and hot water end-use ESOs account for 3 of the top 10 ESOs and have total 
technical potential energy savings by 2030 of 72.3 ktoe. All have low current uptake, and both advanced BAS/controllers and water 
heater pipe insulation have universal future uptake, while new construction – 40% better, has much lower future uptake (35%) although 
generated more technical potential energy savings (28.1 ktoe). For all other ESOs in the top 10, future uptake is universal.  

Table A12.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Greece in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

August 2020  

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future 
uptake (2030) 

Faucet Aerators 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W (Against 
250W baseline) 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W (Against 
200W baseline) 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 150 W (Against 
400W baseline) 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 150 W (Against 
320W baseline) 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Water Heating 
Lighting 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Lighting 
Lighting 
Space Heating, Water Heating 
Space Heating, Water Heating 
Space Heating, Water Heating 

93.4 

61.9 

57.4 

56.1 

49.5 

47.7 

43.0 

28.1 

23.6 

Water Heater Pipe Insulation                                                                                                                

20.5 

17% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

2% 

2% 

2% 

2% 

1% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

35% 

100% 

100% 

492 

 
 
 
A12.2.3 

Industrial 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A12.6 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in process heating and machine drives end-use programmes 

Table A12.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Greece 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Petroleum refineries - RPP - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Machine drives 

118.3 

83.9 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

73.3 

Non-ferrous Metals - RPP - Process Heating 

Other Industry - RPP - Process Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - RPP - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Process Heating 

Non-ferrous Metals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - RPP - Process Heating 

59.2 

58.9 

48.0 

43.9 

36.7 

36.5 

34.9 

0.29 

1.82 

0.29 

0.35 

0.35 

0.35 

0.47 

0.35 

0.35 

0.41 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating end-use programmes account for 9 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential 
and have the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 593.5 ktoe in of total savings, of which process heating 
accounts for 509.6 ktoe (85.9%) of that total. All process heating programmes are economic by 2030, as are all other programmes in the top 
10. The end-use with the second highest technical potential savings is machine drives. They make up 83.9 ktoe (14.1%) of the total savings 
and the programme is expected to be economic by 2030.  

Figure A12.27 presents the top energy efficiency programmes for the industrial sector. Process heating programmes appear to be more cost 
effective than machine drives programmes, with average cost effectiveness scores of 4.0, compared to 0.0 for machine drives. However, all 
have a low CCE, with all the top 10 between 0.3 – 1.8 cent/kWh. Machine drives also have a high likelihood of success with a score of 3.8, 

August 2020  

493 

 
 
 
furthermore all programmes have a high likelihood of success (3.6-3.8), owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the 
programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. 

Figure A12.27  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Greece in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A12.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process Heating. Process heating end-use ESOs account for 9 of the top 10 ESOs and have total technical potential energy savings by 
2030 of 426.3 ktoe. Current and future uptake varies considerably within this end-use category (11 - 60% current, 79 - 100% future). In 
light of this, there is a widespread when looking at increase in uptake (39 – 78%). However, there is no correlation between uptake and 
technical potential energy savings.  

August 2020  

494 

 
 
 
 
 
■  Machine Drives. Machine drives end-use ESOs have technical potential energy savings of 27.4 ktoe, due to low current uptake (22%) 

and universal future uptake (100%)  

Table A12.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Greece in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Furnace) 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Furnace) 

High Efficiency Burner 

Process Heating 
Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 
Process Heating 

Machine drives 

10 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans) 

A12.2.4 

Transport 

69.1 

66.0 

50.7 

47.2 

47.2 

44.3 

38.4 

35.6 

27.8 

27.1 

51% 

38% 

32% 

51% 

51% 

32% 

60% 

11% 

40% 

22% 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A12.8 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in private cars and light duty vehicles programmes 

Table A12.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Greece 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

134.5 

16.31 

No 

August 2020  

100% 

90% 

89% 

94% 

94% 

81% 

100% 

79% 

91% 

100% 

495 

 
 
 
 
Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

111.7 

103.6 

45.7 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport  17.9 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

3.5 

1.6 

0.9 

0.6 

0.4 

3.57 

9.60 

8.87 

0.31 

1.76 

0.83 

4.58 

0.07 

11.37 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Light duty vehicle end-use programmes account for 4 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, 
and have the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 420.4 ktoe in of total savings, of which light duty vehicles 
account for 158.7 ktoe (37.7%) of that total. This is predominatly made up from gasoline/diesel LDVs (freight) (111.7 ktoe). In addition to this, 
all programmes are predicted to be economic by 2030. The end-use with the second highest technical potential savings is private cars . 
They make up 138.0 ktoe (32.8%) of the total savings although most technical potential is not expected to be economic by 2030, as 
gasoline/diesel private cars (passenger) is not economic, but contributes 134.5 ktoe (97.5%) to the private cars total. Although 7 of 10 
programmes are economic, gasoline/diesel private cars (passenger) and gasoline/diesel LDVs and HGVs (freight) are not. As they have a 
combined technical potential of 283.7 ktoe, only 136.6 ktoe (32.5%) is will be economic by 2030.  

Figure A12.28 shows the top energy efficiency programmes for the transport, although only the top 7 programmes by technical potential 
make the list. This is due to the low technical potential of electric LDVs (passenger and freight) and electric public road transport 
(passenger). Public road transport energy efficiency programmes are the most cost effective with a score of 0.31 cent/kWh. Whereas private 
cars programmes have CCE of 16.31 cent/kWh.  

August 2020  

496 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A12.28  Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Greece in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A12.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Light Duty Vehicle. The 3 LDV ESOs presents a total technical saving potential of 156.1 ktoe. This is due to a sizeable change in 
uptake between 2020 and 2030, with a predicted increase of 63% across all LDV ESOs. Overall, improving LDV efficiency provides 
higher technical potential energy savings that the HGV equivalent.  

■  Private Cars – The 2 private car end-use ESO programmes account for 98.2 ktoe, and gains are attributed to low current uptake (3%) 
rather than future uptake (31%). Of those, there is a positive correlation between level of improved vehicle efficiency and technical 
potential energy savings. This is a pattern which can be observed throughout the ESOs, and it not confined to the private cars end use 
programmes 

August 2020  

497 

 
 
 
 
■  Heavy Goods Vehicles - The 4 ESOs attaining to HGVs have the technical energy savings of 89.5 ktoe. High technical potential energy 

savings can be attributed to low current uptake (4%) as uptake is not expected to be particularly high by 2030 (40%).  

■  Private Cars and Public Road Transport - The 2 private cars and public road transport end-use ESO programmes account for 50.0 

ktoe, and gains are attributed to low current uptake (3%) rather than future uptake (31%). 

Table A12.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Greece in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

A12.3 Recommendations 

A12.3.1 

Policy Review 

 Light duty vehicles 

 Private cars 

 Private cars and public road 
transport 

 Light duty vehicles 

 Private cars 

 Light duty vehicles 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

68.9 

57.3 

50.0 

48.7 

40.9 

38.5 

27.0 

25.0 

20.8 

16.7 

7% 

3% 

3% 

7% 

3% 

7% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

70% 

31% 

31% 

70% 

31% 

70% 

40% 

40% 

40% 

40% 

Greece is targeting 24.7 Mtoe primary and 18.1 final energy consumption by 2030, to contribution to the EU target. Those targets need to be 
compared with historic levels from 2017 where the consumption noted was 23.1 and 16.8 Mtoe. Greece’s primary energy consumption 
contribution was assessed as unambitious by the Commission, although it does consider other factors including Greece’s economic situation 
over the last years and the need for recovery.  

August 2020  

498 

 
 
 
Greece estimated that EUR 9 billion will be needed for energy efficiency during the decade 2021-2030. The Commission requested more 
detail for the additional energy efficiency policies and measures that this money would be spent on.  

The measures in the draft NECP focus mainly on buildings’ renovation and transport. Regarding the buildings sector, Greece should look to 
implement a cost-effective renovation of existing buildings into nearly zero-energy buildings. The targets are to renovate annually 3% of 
public floor area and to annually upgrade 40,000 homes. A long-term strategy would give significant contribution to the Union’s energy 
efficiency target.  

Measures to achieve energy efficiency targets have been listed and described comprehensively, however many of the policies presented as 
new plans, have been already proposed in a National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2017. Greek policies tend focus on buildings sector with 
some attention given to transportation issues. 

A12.3.2 

Policies and Measure analysis  

Greece lists 61 energy efficiency measures in their effort to tackle primary energy consumption but at least 40 of them is still not 
implemented. Of the 20 already implemented, there are two cross-sectoral policies: Energy Efficiency Obligation scheme and Fiscal 
incentives for investments in energy savings.  

There are two main economic programmes to help the residential buildings sector. They are Operational programmes for the renovation of 
residential buildings and Replacement of old oil boilers, the former addressing heat losses and the latter addressing heat source efficiency. 
Additionally, there are regulatory measures like mandatory solar thermal collectors in all new and renovated buildings. 

There are 4 policies dedicated to improving public sector’s efficiency. Two of them are economic, of which one is directed towards public 
buildings renovation and the other at street lighting. There are no policies in place for commercial sector and only one for industry providing 
financial incentives for energy efficiency investments. 

Greece has 4 measures in place for transport sector. Only one is an economic policy but it is wide in scope covering replacement of private 
cars, light vans, public buses and heavy freight vehicles. 

Although there is a disproportion between the number of planned and the number of implemented policies in Greece, measures in place do 
get positive assessments in many dimensions. Persistency of savings is scores very highly in almost all of the implemented policies. 
Acceptance and impact are also given good scores. One dimension that gets the least praise is transferability of policies to other countries, 
which is not really a characteristic that the Greek authorities aim to prioritise. 

A12.3.3 

Recommendations  

Below, in Table A12.10, programmes with highest savings potential have been listed. Residential sector has been scattered across the top 
10, but cumulatively has 567 ktoe of technical potential up to 2030. Oil fired households do show the highest potential, occupying second, 

August 2020  

499 

 
 
 
sixth, seventh and ninth position. Top programme in the transport sector, private cars, has been ranked third, and two others that made it to 
the top 10 are on places number fifth and eigth. Sum of potential for these three programmes is 350 ktoe. 

Only one programme for the commercial sector has sufficient potential to get listed in the top 10 but it was ranked as the top single 
programme. Lighting in wholesale & retail trade alone has a technical potential of 301 ktoe. It has been also labelled economic, which was 
not the case for some of the programmes in residential and transport sectors. There are other economic programmes in the top 10, such as 
process heating in petroleum refineries, forth seventh with 118.3 ktoe of potential. 

Table A12.11 shows top Energy Saving Opportunities (ESOs) for Greece. When it comes to individual opportunities, proportions between 
sectors in the top 10 are different than in the top 10 for programmes. Commercial sector opportunities have a total potential of 269 ktoe and 
have ranked first, seventh, eighth and tenth. Installation of faucets aerators is the highest ranked among the commercial opportunities. Two 
residential sector opportunities made it to the top 10, and are located in the top 3, with a cumulative savings potential of 159.2 ktoe. These 
top residential opportunities are: low-flow shower heads, net-zero ready homes. 

Industrial ESOs with highest potential are boiler flue gas monitoring and advanced furnace control. The sum of these two potentials is 
135.1 ktoe. The highest potential (68.9 ktoe) amongst transport opportunities has been spotted in boosting efficiency of light duty vehicles. 

Table A12.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Greece 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical 
potential by 2030 
(ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Commercial  Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Industrial 

Petroleum refineries - RPP - Process Heating 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty 
Vehicles 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

301.0 

161.1 

134.5 

118.3 

111.7 

108.4 

107.4 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles  103.6 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

102.7 

5.20 

20.37 

16.31 

0.29 

3.57 

25.00 

8.40 

9.60 

8.32 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

August 2020  

500 

 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical 
potential by 2030 
(ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

10 

Residential  Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

88.1 

13.40 

Yes 

Table A12.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Greece by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Commercial  Faucet Aerators 

Residential  Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Residential 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Water Heating 

93.4 

Hot water heating, 
Space heating 

88.8 

Hot water heating 

70.4 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

69.1 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light Duty Vehicles  68.9 

Industrial 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Furnace) 

Process Heating 

66.0 

Commercial 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W (Against 
250W baseline) 

Commercial 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W (Against 
200W baseline) 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

10 

Commercial 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 150 W (Against 
400W baseline) 

Lighting 

61.9 

57.4 

57.3 

56.1 

17% 

1% 

10% 

51% 

7% 

38% 

1% 

1% 

3% 

1% 

100% 

100% 

49% 

100% 

100% 

70% 

100% 

90% 

100% 

100% 

Greece, to achieve significant energy efficiency results, should focus on the following areas: 

August 2020  

501 

 
 
 
 
 
1.  Start an information campaign on hot water saving, exemplifying savings provided by installation of simple devices such as faucet 

aerators and low-flow shower heads. 

2.  Promote development of net-zero new buildings, using fiscal or regulatory measures. Both residential and commercial sectors could be 

targeted, but the former has a higher potential. 

3.  Differentiate financial incentives for specific transport sub-sectors, as in some of them vehicle replacement is economic while not in 

others, while all the segments show significant potential. 

4.  Provide incentive to drive lighting replacement based on energy audits – an information campaign on benefits or an introduction of 

mandatory action on energy audits results beyond a certain threshold. 

August 2020  

502 

 
 
 
 
 
Annex 13  Hungary 

A13.1 Summary 

Table A13.1 

Summary of modelling results for Hungary 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

3,585 

1,854 

4,375 

5,583 

15,397 

 1,912  

 535  

 1,180  

 273  

 3,900  

 76  

 134  

 1,134  

 145  

 1,489  

27% 

43% 

24% 

8% 

21% 

8% 

33% 

23% 

2% 

13% 

1,464 

August 2020  

503 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A13.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A13.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time, followed by hot water heating. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are 
space heating (1027.7 ktoe) and hot water heating (855.4 ktoe).   

Figure A13.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Hungary based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

504 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 1556.7 ktoe. 

Figure A13.2 

Technical energy savings potential for Hungary based on residential sub-sector 

August 2020  

505 

 
 
 
 
Figure A13.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Space 
heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are space heating 
(28.8 ktoe) and hot water heating (20.7 ktoe). 

Figure A13.3 

Economic energy savings over timeframe for Hungary based on residential end uses 

August 2020  

506 

 
 
 
 
Figure A13.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 70.9 ktoe. 

Figure A13.4 

Economic energy savings over timeframe for Hungary based on residential sub-sectors  

August 2020  

507 

 
 
 
 
Figure A13.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 3701.8 ktoe (34% reduction against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 5537.9 ktoe (1% less 
than in BAU), while the BAU consumption is 5614.0 ktoe. 

Figure A13.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Hungary   

August 2020  

508 

 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Hungary’s final energy consumption by 1912.2 ktoe in 2030 (38% energy savings 
against BAU). 

Figure A13.6 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Natural gas (83%) sector shows the highest technical impact 
potential. 

Figure A13.6 

Primary energy Impacts for Hungary based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

509 

 
 
 
 
 
A13.1.3 

Commercial 

Figure A13.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time, followed by hot water heating. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are 
space heating (363.4 ktoe) and hot water heating (109.9 ktoe).   

Figure A13.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Hungary based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

510 

 
 
 
 
Figure A13.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade and private and public offices contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, private and public offices have a potential 
savings of 80.0 ktoe while wholesale and retail sectors have potential energy savings of 274.1 ktoe. 

Figure A13.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Hungary based on commercial sub-sectors  

August 2020  

511 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. Water 
heating, space heating, and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
lighting (31.1 ktoe) and water heating (72.0 ktoe).   

Figure A13.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Hungary based on commercial energy end uses  

August 2020  

512 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of wholesale and retail trade are 68.2 ktoe, 
followed by Other Commercial (17.5 ktoe). 

Figure A13.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Hungary based on commercial sub-sectors  

August 2020  

513 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1403.0 ktoe (28% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1804.0 ktoe (7% 
energy saving against BAU), while the BAU scenario is 1937.5 ktoe. 

Figure A13.11  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Hungary  

August 2020  

514 

 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Hungary’s final energy consumption by 534.5 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A13.12 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Natural gas (65.1%) and electricity (23.3%) primary fuels contain 
the highest technical impact potential. 

Figure A13.12  Primary energy impacts for Hungary based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

515 

 
 
 
 
 
A13.1.4 

Industrial     

Figure A13.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (810) ktoe and 
machine drives (209 ktoe).   

Figure A13.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Hungary based on industrial end uses 

August 2020  

516 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Chemicals and 
petrochemicals industries contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, chemicals and petrochemicals industries have a potential 
savings of 259 ktoe, and other non-categorized industries have potential energy savings of 254 ktoe. 

Figure A13.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Hungary based on industrial sub-sectors 

Figure A13.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating ad machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (810) ktoe and machine drives (209 ktoe).   

August 2020  

517 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.15  Economic energy Savings potential over timeframe for Hungary based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A13.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of are chemicals and petrochemicals industry with 250 
ktoe, followed by other industries at 240 ktoe. 

August 2020  

518 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Hungary based on industrial sub-sectors  

Figure A13.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 3,598 ktoe (25% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 3644 ktoe (24% 
energy savings against BAU), while the BAU is 4,778 ktoe.    

August 2020  

519 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Hungary  

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Hungary’s final energy consumption by 1180.0 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A13.18 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Electricity (33%), natural gas (35%), RPP (13%) show the highest 
technical impact potential. 

August 2020  

520 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.18  Primary energy impacts for Hungary based on technical potential for industrial sector 

A13.1.5 

Transport     

Figure A13.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the 
highest potential energy savings over time, followed by light duty vehicles. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are 
private cars (102.4 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (83.3 ktoe).   

August 2020  

521 

 
 
 
 
Figure A13.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Hungary based on end uses 

Figure A13.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passenger transport has a potential savings of 174.2 ktoe and freight 
transport has potential energy savings of 98.9 ktoe. 

August 2020  

522 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.20  Technical energy savings potential overt timeframe for Hungary based on transport sub-sector  

Figure A13.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Heavy goods and light duty vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are heavy good vehicles (70.6 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (55.2 ktoe).    

August 2020  

523 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Hungary based on energy end uses  

Figure A13.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential over time based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of passenger transport is 74.4 ktoe, followed 
by freight transport (70.6 ktoe). 

August 2020  

524 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.22  Energy savings potential over timeframe for Hungary based on transport sub-sectors  

Figure A13.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 3626.9 ktoe (7% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 3756.7 ktoe (4% 
energy savings against BAU), while the BAU scenario is 3922.5 ktoe.    

August 2020  

525 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.23  Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Hungary  

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Hungary’s final energy consumption by 273.1 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A13.24 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Gasoline/diesel (97.75%) shows the highest technical impact 
potential. 

August 2020  

526 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.24  Primary energy impacts for Hungary based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

527 

 
 
 
 
 
A13.2 Discussion 

A13.2.1 

Residential 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A13.2 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in space heating and hot water heating end-use programmes 

Table A13.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Hungary 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

719.0 

598.4 

173.5 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

135.6 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Space heating 

Single family houses - Other - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Coal - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

67.6 

55.2 

28.5 

17.9 

15.7 

14.2 

8.00 

20.16 

7.96 

24.83 

13.78 

3.98 

6.61 

2.66 

3.98 

4.00 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Space heating end-use programmes account for 6 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes. As a result, they have the highest 
savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 1825.8 ktoe in of total savings, of which space heating accounts for 1006.2 ktoe 
(55.1%) of that total. However, only 98 ktoe of that (5.4% as a percentage of the top 10) will be economic by 2030, as only Other and electric 
space heating in single family houses are predicted to be economic by 2030. The end-use with the second highest potential technical saving 
is hot water heating programmes. They make up 819.6 ktoe (44.9%) of the total savings although only 17.9 ktoe is economic by 2030. In 
total, 10.1% of technical potential is predicted to be economic by 2030. 

August 2020  

528 

 
 
 
Figure A13.25 shows the top energy efficiency programmes. Eight of the top ten programmes by technical potential are present: two hot 
water programmes are replaced by one each of appliances and lighting programmes. All programmes will face roadblocks on their way to 
success, with likelihood scores ranging from 1.6-2.5, with lighting topping the field, and space heating programmes expected to see the 
greatest struggle. Among them, lighting is the most cost-efficient, having a cost-effectiveness score of 4.9 and a CCE of 1.1 cent/kWh. 
Single family houses natural gas hot water heating is the only programme among the top ten to see a cost-effectiveness score below 4; This 
programme has a CCE of 20.1 cent/kWh, which is more than double the next-most-expensive among the top ten. 

Figure A13.25  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Hungary in 2030 

August 2020  

529 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A13.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space Heating – Space heating end-use ESOs account for 2 of the top 10 ESOs and have total technical potential energy savings by 

2030 of 223 ktoe. Both show significant potential as current uptake is low (9%) and expected 2030 uptake is 49-59%. 

■  Hot Water Heating – Hot water heating end-use ESOs account for 3 of the top 10 ESOs and have total technical potential energy 

savings by 2030 of 263.7 ktoe. Among these, wastewater heat recovery systems shows the greatest potential, with 104.1 ktoe by 2030, 
in part due to low current uptake and moderate 2030 uptake. 

■  Space Heating and Cooling – Space heating and cooling end-use ESOs account for 3 of the top 10 ESOs and have total technical 

potential energy savings by 2030 of 280.5 ktoe. Wall insulation is the largest contributor and has 103.3 ktoe of savings towards this total, 
and the savings are a result of both relatively low current uptake (39%) and relatively high future uptake (72%), a common trend for this 
end-use. 

■  Space Heating and Hot Water Heating – Space heating and hot water heating accounts for two ESO in the top 10, net zero ready 

homes and energy efficient homes. It accounts for 339.1 ktoe in technical potential energy savings. Net-zero-ready-homes is the ESO 
with the largest technical potential overall (218.4 ktoe) and contributes approximately two thirds of the potential within this End-use 
category. Current uptake is low (0%), hence all savings are attributed to future uptake (40-48%) 

Table A13.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Hungary in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code)  Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling 

Thermal Curtains 

Condensing Gas Boilers 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Wall Insulation 

Air Infiltration 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Space heating 

Space heating 

Hot water heating 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

Hot water heating 
Hot water heating 

10 

DHW Tank Insulation 

August 2020  

218.4 

120.7 

112.1 

110.9 

104.1 

103.3 

92.9 

84.2 

81.9 

77.7 

0% 

0% 

9% 

9% 

9% 

39% 

39% 

39% 

10% 

9% 

48% 

40% 

49% 

59% 

42% 

72% 

78% 

72% 

100% 

86% 

530 

 
 
 
A13.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A13.4 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in space heating and lighting end-use programmes 

Table A13.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Hungary 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Water 
Heating 

134.3 

38.2 

32.4 

Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

27.5 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Space Heating  27.2 

Hotels & Restaurants - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

21.9 

Health - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Other   - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

21.7 

21.1 

18.1 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Water Heating  16.8 

4.77 

12.59 

0.90 

9.13 

44.32 

4.57 

5.07 

4.77 

5.72 

177.10 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

Space heating end-use programmes form seven out of the top ten technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential and 
have the highest savings of any end-uses programme. The top 10 programmes account for 359.2 ktoe in of total savings, of which space 
heating accounts for 291.9 ktoe (81.3%) of that total. However, of the space heating programmes, none will be economic by 2030. The end-
use with the second highest technical potential savings is water heating. It makes up 49.2 ktoe (13.7%) of the total savings and 32.4 ktoe is 
expected to be economic by 2030. Of the top 10 programmes, only 50.5 ktoe is economic by 2030 (14.1%). 

August 2020  

531 

 
 
 
Figure A13.26 presents the top energy efficiency programmes for the commercial sector, and due to low technical potential and cost 
effectiveness of some programmes, four space heating and one water heating programme from Table A13.4 do not appear, having been 
replaced by lighting and cooking programmes. All top ten programmes have low likelihoods of success, with scores from 1.3 – 2.5 owing to 
the high complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and low political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency programmes 
based on previous measures.. Lighting and cooking programmes have the highest likelihood of success, with scores of 2.5. 

Of the top ten, wholesale and retail programmes have the best cost effectiveness, with CCEs of 5.7 cent/kWh, to as low as 0.58 cent/kWh. 
hot water heating is by far the most cost effective, with a CCE of 0.90 cent/kWh compared to the CCE of electric lighting in wholesale & retail 
trade (44.32 cent/kWh). Lighting programmes are collected in the middle of the pack with CCEs of 5.7 – 6.2 cent/kWh. 

Figure A13.26  Top energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Hungary in 2030 

August 2020  

532 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A13.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space Heating – Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps is the ESO with the single highest technical potential, and has total 
technical potential energy savings by 2030 of 109.4 ktoe. This is due to low current uptake (1%) and high future uptake (67%). 

■  Space Heating and Hot Water – Space heating and hot water end-use ESOs account for 4 of the top 10 ESOs and have total technical 

potential energy savings by 2030 of 161.5 ktoe. This is partially due to low current uptake, although this is particularly relevant for 
advanced BAS/controllers (3% current uptake). For all ESOs, future uptake is high.  

■  Lighting – Lighting ESOs account for 2 of the top 10, and together have technical potential savings of 18.5 ktoe when deployed together. 

This is due to low current uptake (3%) and high future uptake (100%) 

Table A13.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Hungary in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Space Heating 

109.4 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced)  Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating, Space Cooling 
Lighting 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting 

10 

Destratification Fans 

Space Heating, Space 
Cooling 

49.5 

47.2 

46.0 

39.6 

28.7 

19.0 

9.6 

8.9 

7.8 

1% 

9% 

30% 

30% 

3% 

30% 

3% 

3% 

3% 

5% 

67% 

100% 

100% 

63% 

100% 

63% 

69% 

100% 

100% 

72% 

August 2020  

533 

 
 
 
A13.2.3 

Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A13.6 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in process heating and machine drives end-use programmes 

Table A13.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Hungary 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

82.7 

70.0 

50.0 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Electricity - Machine drives  47.3 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Other Industry - RPP - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

46.9 

40.3 

39.3 

37.4 

37.0 

36.6 

0.27 

0.26 

0.32 

1.45 

1.54 

0.27 

0.23 

0.43 

0.27 

0.27 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating end-use programmes account for 8 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, 
and have the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 487.5 ktoe in of total savings, of which process heating 
accounts for 393.3 ktoe (80.7%) of that total. All process heating programmes are economic by 2030, as are all other programmes in the top 
10. The end-use with the second highest technical potential savings is machine drives. They make up 94.2 ktoe (19.3%) of the total savings 
and the programme is expected to be economic by 2030.  

Figure A13.27 presents the top energy efficiency programmes for the industrial sector. Process heating programmes appear to be more cost 
effective than machine drives programmes, and as a result eight of the top 10 energy efficiency programmes are process heating. Natural 
gas process heating programmes appear to be the most efficient, with CCEs of 0.2 – 0.3 cent/kWh. The programme with the highest energy 
indicator (5.0) is process heating in other industry, and its cost effectiveness score (4.1) is high in relation to other programmes present in 

August 2020  

534 

 
 
 
the top energy efficiency list. However, all programmes have a low likelihood of success (2.0 – 2.1) low political feasibility of implementing 
energy efficiency measures. 

Figure A13.27  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Hungary in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A13.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process Heating – Process heating end-use ESOs account for all top 10 ESOs and have total technical potential energy savings by 
2030 of 469.6 ktoe. Current and future uptake varies considerably within this end-use category (11%-51% current, 79-100% future). 
However, when increase in uptake for each ESO is taken into consideration, the spread is less, with 7 ESOs having predicted uptake of 
40%-52%, and the other 3 between 58% - 77%. There is a slight inverse correlation between increase in uptake and technical potential 
energy savings by 2030. 

August 2020  

535 

 
 
 
 
Table A13.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Hungary in 2030 

Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Furnace) 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Furnace) 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans) 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Machine drives 

Process Heating 

10 

Process Heat Recovery to Preheat Makeup 
Water 

August 2020  

71.5 

64.7 

51.3 

51.3 

49.0 

40.7 

39.0 

37.8 

33.5 

30.9 

51% 

37% 

50% 

50% 

31% 

11% 

31% 

60% 

22% 

45% 

100% 

90% 

93% 

93% 

89% 

79% 

80% 

100% 

100% 

91% 

536 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A13.2.4 

Transport 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A13.8 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in private cars and light duty vehicles programmes 

Table A13.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Hungary 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

99.8 

69.0 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

54.5 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

28.1 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport  16.2 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

2.6 

1.6 

0.6 

0.5 

0.2 

18.62 

4.34 

3.83 

7.61 

0.29 

2.31 

0.42 

0.08 

5.68 

11.29 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Private cars end-use programmes account for 2 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and 
have the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 273.1 ktoe in of total savings, of which process heating 
accounts for 102.4 ktoe (37.5%) of that total. However, gasoline/diesel private cars in the passenger sector is not evaluated to be economic 
by 2030, which has technical potential of 99.8 ktoe. As a result, only 2.6 ktoe (2.5%) of private car programmes are considered economic by 
2030. The end-use with the second highest technical potential savings is light duty vehicles . They make up 83.3 ktoe (30.5%) of the total 
savings and the programme is expected to be economic by 2030. Although 8 of 10 programmes are economic, gasoline/diesel private cars 
and LDVs in passenger and freight transport respectively are not. As they have a combined technical potential of 127.9 ktoe, only 145.2 ktoe 
(46.8%) is will be economic by 2030.  

August 2020  

537 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A13.28 shows the top energy efficiency programmes for the transport, although only the top 7 programmes by technical potential 
make the list. This is due to the low technical potential of electric LDVs (passenger and freight) and electric public road transport 
(passenger). Of those deemed economic, the gasoline/diesel heavy goods vehicles (freight) programme has the highest likelihood of 
success indicator (2.2), although its CCE (4.34 cent/kWh) is significantly higher than public road transport programmes which also has a 
high likelihood of success (2.0).  

Figure A13.28  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Hungary in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A13.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

August 2020  

538 

 
 
 
 
 
■  Light Duty Vehicle. The 3 LDV ESOs presents a total technical saving potential of 81.9 ktoe. This is due to a sizeable change in uptake 
between 2020 and 2030, with a predicted increase of 60%. Overall, improving LDV efficiency provides higher technical potential energy 
savings that the HGV equivalent.  

■  Private Cars – The 2 private car end-use ESO programmes account for 72.9 ktoe, and gains are attributed to low current uptake (3%) 
rather than future uptake (31%). Of those, there is a positive correlation between level of improved vehicle efficiency and technical 
potential energy savings. This is a pattern which can be observed throughout the ESOs, and it not confined to the private cars end use 
programmes 

■  Heavy Goods Vehicles - The 4 ESOs attaining to HGVs have the technical energy savings of 59.2 ktoe. The uptake is not expected to 

be as significant as in other end-use categories with a future uptake of 27%.  

■  Private Cars and Public Road Transport - The 2 private cars and public road transport end-use ESO programmes account for 39.9 

ktoe. 

Table A13.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Hungary in 2030 

Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

 Private cars and public 
road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

42.5 

39.9 

36.2 

30.4 

25.5 

20.2 

17.8 

16.5 

13.8 

11.0 

3% 

3% 

7% 

3% 

7% 

7% 

3% 

3% 

3% 

3% 

August 2020  

31% 

31% 

67% 

31% 

67% 

67% 

27% 

27% 

27% 

27% 

539 

 
 
 
 
A13.3 Recommendations 

A13.3.1 

Policy Review  

Hungary has not clearly defined its primary and final energy consumption targets and its contribution to the 2030 EU energy efficiency 
target is not quantified. In its draft NECP it described an expected reduction against a baseline but did not define the baseline.   

Policies and measures should be better defined and should aim to create more new jobs and growth.   

The latest available data shows that Hungary is targeting 27.0 Mtoe primary and 18.6 Mtoe final energy consumption by 2030, with 
additional measures. The Commission commented that the level of ambition in energy efficiency is very low.  

Hungary’s Energy Efficiency Obligation scheme was at pilot stage in 2019. The scheme obliges energy companies to invest in energy 
efficiency improvement of public buildings and transport sector measures. Aside from this, the Commission comments that more details 
on policies, measures and savings is needed, particularly in relation to a long-term renovation strategy.  

Commercial and public buildings have made improvements to their energy efficiency by using EU funds, but residential buildings 
are somewhat neglected. There is a need to improve residential energy efficiency and renovate existing, poor quality building stock. This 
is a challenge for Hungary because as there is limited capacity in the construction sector and the cost of building materials and 
construction has risen in recent years2.   

Residential energy consumption per capita in Hungary is 12% above the EU average3 and energy efficient buildings are only a small part 
of building stock. The ‘Warmth of Home’ subsidy programme for the residential sector has been in place since 2014 and is a non-
repayable grant for energy efficiency in the home. The programme only accepts online applications and may therefore be inaccessible to 
those living in poor housing conditions with no access to the internet.   

Hungary has announced 2 billion HUF (6 million EUR) for the upgrade of district heating and radiators in multi apartment buildings.   

Since 2017, Hungary has implemented an interest-free loan programme for residents and individuals to apply for loans towards solar 
panels, new doors and windows and insulation. The total budget for this is 9.4 billion HUF (28 million EUR).  

Energy consumption in the industrial sector is a challenge for Hungary, which is experiencing growth in industrial production.   

In the transport sector, Hungary mentioned in its draft NECP that it plans to limit the increase in consumption in this area to 38% from 
2015 to 2030. It discusses plans to promote electric vehicles and improve the efficiency of internal combustion engine vehicles.   

August 2020  

540 

 
 
 
A13.3.2 

Policy and Measures Analysis  

Hungary has one, regulatory measure in the residential sector. In the industrial sector, one implemented measure exists. This is the 
establishment of an Energy Innovation Council to strengthen energy research and development. This measure was implemented in 
2018.  

In the commercial sector, there is an implemented policy for tax relief for companies investing in energy efficiency, this has been running 
since 2017. Mandatory energy audits also exist as, a translation of the European Energy Efficiency Directive Article 8.   

In the transport sector there are 14 policies and measures. 10 of the 14 are implemented and this is strong. The policies include 
planning, economic and education type measures and cover a wide range of modes of transport: railways, cycling, electric vehicles and 
heavy goods vehicles. The transport sector measures are strong.  

Two measures and policies concern buildings and there are ten cross-sectoral measures.   

The majority of Hungary’s policies are planning, economic and regulatory which indicates that it is prioritising energy efficiency.  

A13.3.3 

Recommendations  

The poor condition of a large proportion of Hungary’s building stock attributes to the fact that all but one of the top 10 ESOs for Hungary are 
aimed at the residential sector.  

Net-zero-ready homes have not yet been approached in policies and measures and yet have the technical potential of 218 ktoe savings by 
2030. Therefore, Hungary should look to develop a definition of a net-zero-ready home and devise policies and measures around it.  

Energy efficiency homes (20% above code) are the second highest technical potential ESO for Hungary. The Hungarian government has 
an existing energy efficiency subsidy scheme for residential homes but should look to increase the accessibility of this to those from poorer 
backgrounds, who are likely to reside in poorer condition homes.   

Residential measures currently exist to invest in district heating in multi-family apartments. The largest economic savings potential for 
Hungary is within single family houses, so more should be done to implement policy in this area.  

Improvements to the commercial building stock have already been made, and at a much high rate of progress than residential. However, 
there is still opportunity in the application of air-source heat pumps and these could be included in the current energy efficiency tax relief 
scheme.  

August 2020  

541 

 
 
 
 
The two highest potential, cost-effective energy savings opportunities in the commercial sector are lighting and water heating, which has 
33.6 and 87.2 ktoe of respective economic potential by 2030.This is reflected in the recommendation of air source heat pumps in Table 
A13.10.  

Although the industrial sector does not have a wide range of policies and measures. Programmes which target natural gas process heating 
within the ‘other industry’ sector has the largest technical potential of all cost-effective measures so Hungary should consider implementing 
policies and measures to address this.  

The transport sector is well covered by current policies and measures.  

Table A13.10 

Top 10 ESOs in Hungary 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

Residential 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space 
heating 

Residential 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% 
above code) 

Space heating, Hot water 
heating, Cooling 

Residential 

Thermal Curtains 

Space heating 

Residential 

Condensing Gas Boilers 

Space heating 

Commercial 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate 
Heat Pumps 

Space Heating 

Residential 

Wastewater Heat Recovery 
Systems 

Hot water heating 

Residential 

Wall Insulation 

Space heating, Cooling 

Residential 

Air Infiltration 

Space heating, Cooling 

218.4 

120.7 

112.1 

110.9 

109.4 

104.1 

103.3 

92.9 

August 2020  

0% 

0% 

9% 

9% 

1% 

9% 

39% 

39% 

100% 

48% 

100% 

40% 

59% 

67% 

42% 

72% 

542 

 
 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

9 

10 

Residential  Super High-Performance Windows  Space heating, Cooling 

Residential 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

84.2 

81.9 

Current 
uptake 
(2020) 

39% 

10% 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

78% 

72% 

Table A13.11 

Top 10 Programmes in Hungary by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

719.0 

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water 
heating 

Residential 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space 
heating 

598.4 

173.5 

Residential 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water 
heating 

135.6 

Commercial 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

134.3 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars  99.8 

Industrial 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

82.7 

Industrial 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - 
Process Heating 

70.0 

8.00 

20.16 

7.96 

24.83 

4.77 

18.62 

0.27 

0.26 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

August 2020  

543 

 
 
 
 
Country 
rank 

9 

10 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods 
vehicles 

69.0 

Residential 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating  67.6 

4.34 

13.78 

Yes 

Yes 

To reach its 2030 energy efficiency targets, Hungary should:  

1.  Invest in policies and measures for new build net-zero ready homes 
2.  Implement measures to incentivise higher performing building fabric (wall insulation, efficient windows) in the residential sector  
3.  Define net-zero-ready homes and plan and implement policy for new build homes to reach this standard 

August 2020  

544 

 
 
 
 
 
Annex 14  Ireland 

A14.1 Summary 

Table A14.1 

Summary of modelling results for Ireland 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

2,760 

1,378 

2,371 

3,931 

10,440 

 915  

 318  

 602  

 595  

 452  

 239  

 579  

 595  

 2,430  

 1,866  

33% 

23% 

25% 

15% 

23% 

16% 

17% 

24% 

15% 

18% 

949 

August 2020  

545 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A14.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A14.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating 
(541.8 ktoe) and space heating (353.2 ktoe). 

Figure A14.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

546 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 749.7 ktoe. 

Figure A14.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based on residential sub-sector  

August 2020  

547 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Space 
heating and hot water heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potentials for economic savings by end use 
are space heating (339.1 ktoe) and hot water heating (92.8 ktoe).   

Figure A14.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based on residential energy end uses  

August 2020  

548 

 
 
 
 
Figure A14.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 367.4 ktoe. 

Figure A14.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based on residential sub-sectors  

August 2020  

549 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1845.1 ktoe (33% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 2308.1 ktoe 
(16% energy savings against BAU), while the BAU scenario is 2760.0 ktoe.   

Figure A14.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Ireland  

August 2020  

550 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Ireland’s final energy consumption by 915.0 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A14.6 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Electricity (19.5%), natural gas (30.9%) and RPP (44.2%) show the 
highest technical potential. 

Figure A14.6 

Primary energy impacts for Ireland based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

551 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A14.1.3 

Commercial   

Figure A14.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to is end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (156.7 ktoe) and 
water heating (110.9 ktoe).   

Figure A14.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based on commercial end uses 

August 2020  

552 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other commercial 
an hotel and restaurants contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, other commercial have a potential savings of 79.5 ktoe 
while hotels and restaurants have potential energy savings of 75.9 ktoe. 

Figure A14.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based on commercial sub-sector 

August 2020  

553 

 
 
 
 
Figure A14.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Water heating and space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
water heating (104.3 ktoe) and space heating (85.4 ktoe).   

Figure A14.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based on commercial energy end uses  

August 2020  

554 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Hotels and 
restaurants, wholesale and retail trade and other commercial contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy 
savings of hotels and restaurants are 67.6 ktoe, followed by Other Commercial (49.8 ktoe). 

Figure A14.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based on commercial sub-sectors  

August 2020  

555 

 
 
 
 
Figure A14.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1060 ktoe (23% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1138.4 ktoe (17% 
energy savings against BAU), and actual BAU is 1377.9 ktoe. 

Figure A14.11 

 Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Ireland  

August 2020  

556 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Ireland’s final energy consumption by 317.8 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A14.12 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Electricity (49.6%), natural gas (33.6%) and RPP (16.8%) show 
the highest technical impact potential. 

Figure A14.12  Primary energy impacts for Ireland based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

557 

 
 
 
 
A14.1.4 

Industrial     

Figure A14.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (434 ktoe) and 
machine drives (92 ktoe).   

Figure A14.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

558 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry 
contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, other industry has a potential savings of 130 ktoe, and nonferrous metals have 
potential energy savings of 124 ktoe, followed by food and tobacco at 107 ktoe. 

Figure A14.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based industrial sub-sector 

August 2020  

559 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (434 ktoe) and machine drives (92 ktoe).   

Figure A14.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A14.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry 
contains the highest potential over time, followed by non-ferrous metals and food and tobacco. In 2030, potential economic energy savings 
of other industry are 127 ktoe, for non-ferrous metals savings are 117 ktoe while for food and tobacco savings are 106 ktoe. 

August 2020  

560 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.16  Economic energy savings over timeframe for Ireland based on industrial sub-sectors  

Figure A14.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1770 ktoe (25% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1792 ktoe (24% 
energy saving against BAU), where actual BAU is 2371 ktoe.    

August 2020  

561 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Ireland  

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Ireland’s final energy consumption by 602 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A14.18 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Natural gas (26%), electricity (48%), RPP (17%) show the highest 
technical impact potential. 

August 2020  

562 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.18  Primary energy impacts for Ireland based on technical potential for industrial sector 

August 2020  

563 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A14.1.5 

Transport     

Figure A14.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the 
highest potential energy savings over time, followed by light duty vehicles. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are 
private cars (367.0 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (109.3 ktoe).   

Figure A14.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

564 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passenger transport has a potential savings of 457.6 ktoe and freight 
transport has potential energy savings of 137.8 ktoe. 

Figure A14.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

565 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Private cars and heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end 
use are private cars (367.0 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (109.3 ktoe).   

Figure A14.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based on transport energy end uses  

August 2020  

566 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.22 provides a breakdown of the county level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of passenger transport is 457.6 ktoe, followed 
by freight (137.8 ktoe). 

Figure A14.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Ireland based on transport sub-sectors  

August 2020  

567 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 3,328.1 ktoe (15% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 3,315 ktoe (15% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 3,930.8 ktoe.    

Figure A14.23  Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Ireland  

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Ireland’s final energy consumption by 595.4 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A14.24 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Gasoline/diesel (98.4%) shows the highest technical impact 
potential. 

August 2020  

568 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A14.24  Primary energy impacts for Ireland based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

569 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A14.2 Discussion 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A14.2 .The technical energy saving 
potential mainly lies within programmes on hot water heating and space heating, quantified as follows: 

A14.2.1 

Residential 

Table A14.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Ireland 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Space heating 

224.5 

146.6 

135.3 

103.5 

65.3 

43.7 

37.8 

33.2 

25.0 

17.1 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 
12.18 
12.24 
4.51 
4.52 
8.12 
15.10 
4.48 
15.07 
4.51 
3.23 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Hot water heating programmes form four of the top 10 programmes for the residential sector and also have the largest energy saving 
potential, with 513.3 ktoe. However, only 103.1 ktoe is evaluated to be economic for the electricity based hot water heating programme. 
Programmes on space heating for single family houses and multi-family apartments (totalling 318.7 ktoe) presents the second largest 
technical and economic energy saving potential.  

August 2020  

570 

 
 
 
Compared to Table A14.2, top 10 energy efficiency programmes as seen in Figure A14.25 include two fewer space heating programmes in 
favour of one each of appliances and lighting-based programmes.. All programmes have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.0 – 
4.2), owing to high political feasibility and low complexity of ESOs. The programme with the highest chance to succeed of the top 10 is 
lighting programmes in single-family homes with a score of 4.2.  

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is single family houses space heating (coal) with a CCE of 0.84 cent/kWh. Natural gas and 
RRP space heating in single-family homes are the lest cost-effective, with a score of 2.0 and CCEs of 12.2 cent/kWh. 

Figure A14.25  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Ireland in 2030 

August 2020  

571 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A14.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating and Cooling. Among this end-use, the top energy saving ESO is thermal curtains for windows, where the current uptake 
is moderately low (22%), therefore leading to 43.8 ktoe in technical energy savings by 2030 for space heating only. There are two ESOs 
within the top 10 which can be applied to both space heating and space cooling energy end-uses. These are Air infiltration and Wall 
insulation which lead to 79.2 ktoe in energy savings, owing to the low current uptake of insulation (1-5%) and moderate projected 2030 
uptake (38-50%). 

■  Hot water heating. There are five programmes which reference hot water heating directly within the top 10. These ESOs present a 

technical saving potential totalling 278.6 ktoe. Low flow shower head and wastewater heat recovery systems have a relatively low current 
uptake and the remaining potential by 2030 is high.  

■  Multiple end-use.  Energy-efficient homes (20% above code) are design ESOs related to multiple energy end use (space heating, hot 
water heating and cooling) with a technical saving potential totalling 40.1 ktoe by 2030; only 10% of the new build homes are estimated 
to energy efficient (above 20%). Net-zero-ready homes is the ESO providing the greatest technical potential (96.0 ktoe) and saves 
energy within the space heating and hot water heating energy end-uses. Together these multi-end-use ESOs have a technical potential 
of 136.1 ktoe. 

Table A14.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector for Ireland in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

DHW Tank Insulation 

Thermal Curtains 

Wall Insulation 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Space heating 

Space heating, Cooling 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code)  Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling 

Air Infiltration 

 Space heating and cooling 

10 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash 

 Hot water heating 

August 2020  

96.0 

71.5 

62.3 

53.9 

53.5 

43.8 

40.4 

40.1 

36.6 

35.2 

10% 

16% 

10% 

16% 

16% 

22% 

5% 

10% 

5% 

34% 

58% 

49% 

100% 

56% 

92% 

62% 

38% 

50% 

50% 

100% 

572 

 
 
 
A14.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A14.4 The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within space and water heating , quantified as follows: 

Table A14.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Ireland 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Natural Gas - Water Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Water Heating 

Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Water Heating 

Other Commercial - RPP - Space Heating 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Water Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - RPP - Space Heating 

Health - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

20.6 

17.4 

14.0 

13.3 

12.9 

12.5 

10.4 

10.4 

9.7 

9.7 

5.26 
2.76 

2.63 
0.06 
1.19 
0.24 
5.26 
5.82 
2.76 
2.92 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Space heating programmes account for 6 of the top 10 programmes as seen in Table A14.4. The total technical energy saving potential of 
space heating programmes is 81.7 ktoe of which 61.2 ktoe is considered as economic potential. Water heating programmes make up the 
other four of the top ten, and present 49.1 ktoe of economic energy savings by 2030. 3 programmes for Hotels & Restaurants sub-sector 
account for 40.2 ktoe in energy savings.  

August 2020  

573 

 
 
 
The composition of the top energy efficiency programmes in Figure A14.26 contains two lighting programmes at the expense of two space 
heating programmes. All of programmes have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.1 – 4.3), owing to high political feasibility and 
low complexity of ESOs. The programme with the lowest chance to succeed of the top 10 are natural gas space heating programmes (3.1). 
The lighting energy programmes have the highest likelihood to succeed (4.3). 

The most cost-effective programmes of the top 10 are natural gas water heating in hotels & restaurants and other commercial with CCEs of 
0.060 and 0.24 cent/kWh, respectively. The least cost-effective programme is electric water heating in the other commercial sector with a 
CCE of 5.8 cent/kWh, however this is evaluated as being economic as per Table A14.4. 

Figure A14.26  Top energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Ireland in 2030 

August 2020  

574 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A14.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Water heating. Water heating ESOs present 46 ktoe of energy savings through the installation of faucet aerators and low-flow shower 
heads, both ESOs focussing on the reduction of water consumption. The uptake of such ESOs are anticipated to reach 100% by 2030 
which goes someway to explaining the high technical potential. 

■  Space heating and hot water heating. 4 ESOs can be applied to save both space heating energy but also energy used for hot water. 
The technical energy saving potential for these ESOs is 97.6 ktoe by 2030. Measures included involve the construction of new builds 
which are more efficient, and recommissioning of existing buildings have low current uptake (5%) and are expected to increase to 38% 
by 2030. Only one ESO specifically focuses on space heating energy end-use, which is the installation of heat pumps in commercial 
buildings. 

■  Lighting. Two ESOs focus on lighting based on enhanced controls. Together these have a technical potential of 19 ktoe. 

Table A14.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector for Ireland in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps 

Space Heating 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating, Space Cooling 
Water Heating 

10 

Low-Flow Showerheads 

August 2020  

39.7 

34.1 

32.0 

27.6 

20.7 

17.3 

9.6 

9.4 

7.5 

6.2 

17% 

25% 

5% 

5% 

13% 

5% 

13% 

13% 

13% 

17% 

100% 

92% 

100% 

38% 

100% 

38% 

100% 

100% 

80% 

100% 

575 

 
 
 
A14.2.3 

Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A14.6. The technical potential 
mainly lies within process heating and machine drives: 

Table A14.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Ireland 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Non-ferrous Metals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

40.6 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

37.5 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

31.9 

Non-ferrous Metals - RPP - Process Heating 

Other Industry - RPP - Process Heating 

26.2 

24.2 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating  24.2 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Machinery - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - RPP - Process Heating 

Non-ferrous Metals - Electricity - Process Heating 

24.1 

22.0 

20.6 

19.4 

0.29 

0.29 

0.34 

0.29 

0.29 

0.29 

1.65 

0.34 

0.34 

0.46 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating programmes present energy savings within the industrial sector of 26.6 ktoe as they represent 9 of top 10 programmes 
shown in Table A14.6. Of the savings within process heating, Non-ferrous metals sub-sector represents 86.2 ktoe of technical energy 
savings by 2030. Machine drives programmes provides 24.1 ktoe of technical and economic energy saving potential.  

As can be seen from Figure A14.27, all but one of the top energy efficiency programmes are process heating based. All of programmes 
shown in Figure A14.27 have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.5 – 3.6), owing to high political feasibility and low complexity of 
ESOs within the programme. Machine drives have a slightly higher likelihood of success owing to the technical complexity of the 
programmes being evaluated. 

August 2020  

576 

 
 
 
4 process heating programmes are the most cost-effective with a CCE score of 0.3 cent/kWh. Of particular note is that non-ferrous metals 
comprise 2 of the 4 most-cost effective programmes. The least cost-effective programme within the top 10 is electricity-driven machine 
drives in Other Industries with a CCE of 1.65 cent/kWh. However, these programmes are still considered as economic as they are 
significantly below the retail fuel tariff. 

Figure A14.27  Top energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Ireland in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A14.7 for the industrial sector. These ESOS are 
analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process Heating.  All of the top 10 ESOs reflect energy saving in process heating end-use. This is largely because of the high energy 
consumption of this end-use within the sector. Boiler and furnace energy consumption reduction by flue gas monitoring, boiler load 

August 2020  

577 

 
 
 
 
 
management and correct sizing of the boiler unit and advanced heating and process control as they can be applied to all fossil fuel based 
ESOs (139.4 ktoe). 3 ESOs look at process heat saving 50.1 ktoe by 2030. 

Table A14.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector for Ireland in 2030 

Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process 
Control (Furnace) 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery 
(Furnace) 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Boiler combustion air preheat 

Process Heat Recovery to Preheat 
Makeup Water 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

37.1 

27.3 

25.7 

25.7 

23.6 

21.0 

19.4 

17.4 

15.6 

15.1 

50% 

37% 

50% 

50% 

31% 

60% 

11% 

31% 

58% 

45% 

100% 

90% 

93% 

93% 

89% 

100% 

78% 

80% 

98% 

91% 

A14.2.4 

Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A14.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes for private cars, heavy goods vehicles and light duty vehicles, quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

578 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A14.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Ireland 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

363.9 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

100.9 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

73.3 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

35.1 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport  16.5 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

3.1 

1.5 

0.6 

0.3 

0.2 

5.18 

1.73 

1.22 

2.77 

0.26 

0.62 

0.16 

1.75 

3.95 

0.07 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Programmes for private cars total 367 ktoe for the transport sector, however only 3.1 ktoe is considered economic and this is for electric 
private cars. 4 of the top 10 programmes focus on light duty vehicles in freight and passenger transport, which total 109.3 ktoe in economic 
energy savings. The other significant end-use is heavy goods vehicles programmes, which presents a technical saving potential of 102.4 
ktoe by 2030. 

The top energy efficiency programmes are shown in Figure A14.28. All programmes have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.3 
– 3.4), attributed by good policy measures and the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement as 
seen in Figure A14.28. Heavy goods vehicles, and light duty vehicles all have the highest chance to succeed with a score of 3.4 owing to the 
technical complexity of the programmes. 

August 2020  

579 

 
 
 
 
 
The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is public road transport programme with a CCE of 0.26 cent/kWh. The least cost-effective 
programme is for passenger transport, which has a CCE of 5.18 cent/kWh. The private cars programme was evaluated as uneconomic as 
shown in Table A14.8 

Figure A14.28  Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Ireland in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A14.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private cars. The top 3 ESOs are through the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved efficiency). 
The uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 12% with a 100% uptake by 2030 leading to a technical energy saving of 377.1 ktoe by 
2030. Public road transport programmes also are covered within vehicle improvements of 3% ESO. 

August 2020  

580 

 
 
 
 
 
■  Light Duty Vehicles. There are 3 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles. They present a technical saving potential 

totalling 107.5 ktoe by 2030. The current uptake for 2020 is evaluated to be 7% with the future uptake being 70% by 2030.  

■  Heavy Goods Vehicles. 4 ESOs of the top 10, target energy savings in heavy goods vehicles which present technical energy savings of 

87.2 ktoe by 2030. This is as a result of a low future uptake (4%) for the ESOs in this end-use.  

Table A14.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector for Ireland in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

 Private cars and public 
road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

157.9 

112.8 

106.5 

47.5 

33.5 

26.5 

26.3 

24.4 

20.3 

16.2 

12% 

12% 

12% 

7% 

7% 

7% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

70% 

70% 

70% 

40% 

40% 

40% 

40% 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

A14.3 Recommendations 

A14.3.1 

Policy review 

Irish draft NECP shows limited ambition and has been inconsistent with EU-wide goals. Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) Non-ETS GHG 
emissions target for 2030 is -30% (compared to 2005 level), but the draft NECP forecasts missing this target by 17.5 percentage points in 

August 2020  

581 

 
 
 
 
the transport, buildings and agriculture sectors. Relatively to its GDP level the Republic of Ireland has not been very active in stimulating 
energy transition which is being blamed at the 2008 financial crisis which induced some budget limitations (causing a period that is 
sometimes called ‘a lost decade’).  

Draft NECP for Ireland set a very low contribution to GHG emissions reduction for energy efficiency. Energy consumption is expected to 
grow with primary energy consumption falling slightly between 2017 and 2020 (from 14.4 to 13.9 Mtoe), but then increasing to 15.9 Mtoe in 
2030. 

Following the submission of the NECP, a strategic Climate Action Plan (CAP2019) has been published by The Department of 
Communications, Climate Action and the Environment (DCCAE). It sets a number of new targets for transport and buildings sectors, 
including 40-45% GHG reduction for both transport and buildings sectors. Sectoral GHG targets are supplemented by more detailed goals 
like 500k building retrofits to Building Energy Rating (BER) at least at B2 level, 600k heat pump installations, increase the number of Electric 
vehicles to 936k by 2030 (840k passenger EVs, 95k vans and trucks, 1.2k buses).  

Main policies to achieve buildings related goals are Home Renovations Incentive (HRI), Home Energy Grants – Better Energy Programme, 
and the Support Scheme for Renewable Heat (SSRH), which has been announced as part of the National Plan Ireland 2040 (NPF 2017), but 
it became operational only in 2019. 

There are existing policies aimed at increasing low-CO2 vehicles share, which is called Vehicle Registration Tax and Annual Motor Tax 
Rebalancing (VRT&AMTR), but those are projected to be phased out before 2030 due to increased competitiveness of battery electric 
vehicles. 

A14.3.2 

Policies and Measure analysis  

There are few (4) cross-cutting policies in place in Ireland. Most prominent and influential is the carbon tax set at 20 cent/kWh as of 2019. 
Other, non-economic, cross-sectoral measures are Behavioural Economic Unit research, Green Public Procurement and Energy Supplier 
Obligations.  

There are six planned and ongoing policies relevant for the residential sector. These include economic and fiscal ones like: Home 
Renovation Incentive (HRI), Support Scheme for Renewable Heat (SSRH) and Home Energy Grants (Better Energy Programme) the last 
one consisting of few sub-programmes including Warmer Homes Scheme, Deep Retrofit Pilot, Better Energy Communities and others. Other 
measures implemented in Ireland are of a regulatory nature and these are: Building Energy Rating (BER) and Building Regulations 
(separate regulations for Dwellings and ‘other than dwellings’ buildings). 

In the commercial sector Support Scheme for Renewable Heat (SSRH) and Smart Meters roll-out policies are also (as for residential) 
applicable. Additionally, there are Accelerated Capital Allowances (ACA) for energy efficient investment and Public Sector Strategy and 
Programme, which brings the number of measures for the commercial sector to four. 

August 2020  

582 

 
 
 
Industrial entities are also entitled to the ACAs (just like commercial) and do have two dedicated economic measures: Large Industry Energy 
Network (LIEN) and EXEED (Excellence in Energy Efficiency Design). The former helps in devising energy management programmes, 
action plans and set energy reduction targets, the latter in establishing a systematic approach to design, construction and commissioning.  

Policies related to energy efficiency of transportation are grouped into three main areas: Low Emission Vehicles Task Force, EV deployment 
and Public Transport investment. Encouraging switching mode of transportation to cycling will be the objective of Cycling Project Office 
(CPO) which will be a new department of the National Transport Authority (NTA), as outlined in the CAP2019. The Climate Action Plan 
forecasts significant decrease in EV costs and envisions that it will be matched with reductions in EV subsidies. 

Overall, the Irish policies are very impactful and there is limited experience in their implementation and operation. At the same time the 
measures score highly on persistency and cost-efficiency.   

A14.3.3 

Recommendations 

The top 10 programmes, offering the highest technical potential savings, for Ireland are shown in Table A14.10, while the top 10 Energy 
Saving Opportunities (ESOs) are shown in Table A14.11. The highest technical potential can be seen in the residential sector and especially 
in single-family housing, where improvements in hot water and space heating account for almost 719 ktoe of potential savings. Some of the 
programmes with the highest potential has been flagged as uneconomic in current circumstances. Uneconomic programmes include private 
passenger transport and hot water heating using fuel oil and gas, which are the top three programmes with regards to the technical potential, 
having a total of 735 ktoe.  

Transport and residential sectors dominate top 10 of programmes, with only one industrial one referring to process heating in non-ferrous 
metals industry and none of the commercial programmes in the high ranks. This is even more visible in the top 10 ESOs ranking, where 
more detailed energy efficiency opportunities are listed and ranked. Top 10 ESOs confirms the huge potential for private cars efficiency 
improvement and provides insights on how to achieve the savings in hot water and space heating. For hot water heating the opportunities lie 
in wider roll-out of low-flow shower heads, wastewater heat recovery and solar thermal systems, as well as in better insulation of DHW 
tanks. In the space heating domain, changes that would impact the energy consumption are thermal curtains and getting the houses build 
and/or retrofitted to be net-zero ready. 

Table A14.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Ireland 

Country 
rank 

1 

2 

3 

August 2020  

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

Transport  Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

363.9 

224.5 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

146.6 

5.18 

12.18 

12.24 

No 

No 

No 

583 

 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Transport  Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods 

135.3 

103.5 

100.9 

vehicles 

Transport  Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty 

73.3 

Vehicles 

Residential  Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

65.3 

43.7 

40.6 

10 

Industrial  Non-ferrous Metals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Table A14.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Ireland by 2030 

4.51 

4.52 

1.73 

1.22 

8.12 

15.10 

0.29 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

Transport 

Transport 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency 
(5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency 
(4%) 

 Private cars 

 Private cars 

157.9 

112.8 

Improved vehicle efficiency 
(3%) 

 Private cars,  Public road 
transport 

106.5 

Residential  Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space 
heating 

96.0 

Residential  Wastewater Heat Recovery 

Hot water heating 

Systems 

Residential  Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

Residential  Active Solar Water Heating 

Hot water heating 

Systems 

71.5 

62.3 

53.9 

Residential  DHW Tank Insulation 

Hot water heating 

53.5 

12% 

12% 

12% 

10% 

16% 

10% 

16% 

16% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

58% 

100% 

49% 

56% 

August 2020  

584 

 
 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

9 

10 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV 
(6%) 

 Light Duty Vehicles 

47.5 

Residential  Thermal Curtains 

Space heating 

43.8 

7% 

22% 

92% 

70% 

To reach its 2030 targets it is recommended that Ireland: 

1.  Expand rather than limit its low-carbon vehicles incentives, currently limited and planned to be withdrawn. 

2.  Incentivise hot water heating energy efficiency measures in residential sector (both single- and multi-family buildings) to make the 

programmes economic for end-users. 

3.  Proceed with quick ramp-up of existing cross-cutting policies like the carbon tax and the Behavioural Economic Unit to make some of the 
high-potential programmes economical and to enable using some of the behavioural opportunities (low-flow shower heads and closing 
windows and blinds) 

August 2020  

585 

 
 
 
 
 
Annex 15  Italy 

A15.1 Summary 

Table A15.1 

Summary of modelling results for Italy 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

31,526 

18,947 

26,166 

33,236 

109,874 

 11,775  

 5,161  

 6,618  

 3,002  

 26,557  

 6,045  

 3,743  

 6,387  

 1,492  

 17,667  

37% 

27% 

25% 

9% 

24% 

19% 

20% 

24% 

4% 

16% 

9,269 

August 2020  

586 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A15.1.2 

Residential    

Figure A15.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating 
(6306.5 ktoe) and space heating (5037.6 ktoe).  

Figure A15.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

587 

 
 
 
 
Figure A15.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Multi-family apartments 
contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, multi-family homes have potential energy savings of 8229.7 ktoe. 

Figure A15.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

588 

 
 
 
 
Figure A15.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Space 
heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are space heating 
5037.6 ktoe) and hot water heating (577.2 ktoe).   

Figure A15.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on residential energy end uses  

August 2020  

589 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Multi-family 
apartments contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, multi-family homes have potential energy savings of 4239.7 ktoe, followed by 
single family houses at 1805.8 ktoe. 

Figure A15.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on residential energy sub-sectors  

August 2020  

590 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 19750.7 ktoe (37% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 25480.0 ktoe 
(19% energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 31525.5 ktoe.   

Figure A15.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Italy  

August 2020  

591 

 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Italy’s final energy consumption by 12685.41 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A15.6 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Natural gas (82.0%), electricity (8.6%) and RPP (8.1%) show the 
highest technical impact potential. 

Figure A15.6 

Primary energy impacts for Italy based on technical potential for residential sector 

A15.1.3 

Commercial   

Figure A15.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (1789.9 ktoe) 
and lighting (1504.2 ktoe). 

August 2020  

592 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

593 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade and education contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, wholesale and retail have potential energy savings of 
2381.1 ktoe while the education sector has 778.7 ktoe of savings potential. 

Figure A15.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on commercial sub-sectors  

August 2020  

594 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Lighting, water heating and space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by 
end use are lighting (1504.2 ktoe) and water heating (949.8 ktoe).   

Figure A15.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on commercial energy end uses  

August 2020  

595 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of wholesale and retail trade are 1877.7 ktoe, 
followed by education sector (569.4 ktoe). 

Figure A15.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

596 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 13,785.1ktoe (27% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 15,203.7 ktoe 
(22% energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 18,946.5 ktoe. 

Figure A15.11 

 Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Italy  

August 2020  

597 

 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Italy’s final energy consumption by 5161.5 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A15.12 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Electricity (56.2%), natural gas (39.1%) show the highest technical 
impact potential. 

Figure A15.12  Primary energy impacts for Italy based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

598 

 
 
 
 
A15.1.4 

Industrial 

Figure A15.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (3,884 ktoe) 
and machine drives (1,724 ktoe).   

Figure A15.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A15.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry 
contains the highest potential over time, followed by iron & steel and petroleum refineries. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of 
other industries are 1,076 ktoe, for iron & steel savings are 960 ktoe while for petroleum refineries savings are 870 ktoe. 

August 2020  

599 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on industrial sub-sector  

Figure A15.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (3,884 ktoe) and machine drives (1,724 ktoe).  

August 2020  

600 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A15.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industries 
contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of other industries are (1,068 ktoe), followed by iron & 
steel (892 ktoe) and petroleum refineries (864 ktoe). 

August 2020  

601 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.16  Economic energy savings over timeframe for Italy based on sub-sectors  

Figure A15.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 19,548 ktoe (25% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenarios 19,780 ktoe (24% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 26,166.4 ktoe.    

August 2020  

602 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Italy  

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Italy’s final energy consumption by 6618 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A15.18 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Electricity (49%), natural gas (39%) and RPP (8%) show the 
highest technical impact potential. 

August 2020  

603 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.18  Primary energy impacts for Italy based on technical potential for industrial sector 

A15.1.5 

Transport     

Figure A15.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the 
highest potential energy savings over time, followed by light duty vehicles. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are 
private cars (1,538.1 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (803.5 ktoe).   

August 2020  

604 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A15.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passenger transport has a potential savings of 2,045.5 ktoe and freight 
transport has potential energy savings of 956.5 ktoe. 

August 2020  

605 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.20 

 Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on transport sub-sectors  

Figure A15.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. Light 
duty and heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are light 
duty vehicles (803.5 ktoe) and heavy goods vehicles (574.5 ktoe).   

August 2020  

606 

 
 
 
 
Figure A15.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on transport energy end uses  

Figure A15.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Freight transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of freight transport is (956.5 ktoe), followed by 
passenger transport (535.7 ktoe). 

August 2020  

607 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Italy based on transport sub-sectors  

Figure A15.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 30001.4 ktoe (9% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 31580.2 ktoe (4% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 33235.7 ktoe.  

August 2020  

608 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A15.23  Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Italy  

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Italy’s final energy consumption by 3,002.0 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A15.24 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Gasoline/diesel (98.6%) shows the highest technical impact 
potential. 

August 2020  

609 

 
 
 
 
Figure A15.24  Primary energy impacts for Italy based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

610 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A15.2 Discussion 

A15.2.1 

Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the residential sector are be shown in Table A15.2. The technical energy saving potential 
mainly lies within programmes on space heating, and hot water heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A15.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Italy 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  3657.0 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

3161.9 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

1573.8 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

1268.6 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating 

359.6 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Lighting 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

333.1 

324.2 

179.6 

169.5 

165.4 

18.78 

6.05 

15.31 

6.09 

12.89 

18.78 

6.01 

9.63 

0.59 

15.21 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Hot water heating programmes form five of the top ten programmes for the residential sector and have the largest energy saving potential, 
with 6103.1 ktoe. However, only 539.2 ktoe is evaluated to be economic. Programmes on space heating for single family houses and multi-
family apartments (totalling 4754.7 ktoe) presents the second largest technical saving and economic potential. Natural gas hot water heating 
programme for multi-family apartments presents the highest technical energy saving potential of 3657 ktoe, however it is not deemed to be 
cost effective by 2030. 

August 2020  

611 

 
 
 
Half of the top-ten energy efficiency programmes for residential sector have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.1 – 4.0), attributed 
by good policy measures. The ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement as can be seen in Figure 
A15.25. The highest score being for lighting (4.0) and the lowest for space heating (2.8). 

The most cost-effective programme is the one for lighting in multi-family apartments (CCE-0.6 cent/kWh), and is economic. The least cost-
effective  programme  is  the  natural  gas  hot  water  heating  in  multi-family  apartments  having  a  CCE  of  18.8  cent/kWh,  and  is  therefore 
uneconomic. 

Figure A15.25  Top energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Italy in 2030 

August 2020  

612 

 
 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A15.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Hot water heating. They form 5 of top 10 ESOs presenting a technical saving potential totalling 2726.6 ktoe. Low flow shower head and 

minimising hot and warm cloth washing have a relatively low current uptake and the remaining potential by 2030 is high.  

■  Space heating. There are three specific ESOs which focus on space heating energy end-use, as well as cooling. They have a combined 

technical potential energy savings of 1578 ktoe by 2030. 

■  Space heating & hot water heating. Net-zero-ready homes is the largest ESO in the sector owing to very low current uptake (1%) and 
high future uptake (49%). Energy efficient homes contribute a further 710 ktoe by 2030 for a combined end-use total of 1999.7 ktoe. 

Table A15.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Italy in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

1289.3 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Hot water heating 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code)  Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Thermal Curtains 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Wall Insulation 

High Efficiency Gas Storage Water Heater 

Hot water heating 

Space heating 

Space heating 

Hot water heating 

Space heating, Cooling 

Hot water heating 

 Hot water heating 

718.3 

710.3 

605.7 

552.4 

533.2 

501.3 

492.4 

457.9 

445.1 

10 

DHW Tank Insulation 

A15.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A15.4. The technical 
energy saving potential mainly lies within programmes on lighting, water heating and space heating, quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

1% 

17% 

1% 

8% 

15% 

30% 

10% 

15% 

17% 

17% 

49% 

50% 

41% 

100% 

48% 

70% 

100% 

48% 

80% 

94% 

613 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A15.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Italy 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

867.4 

465.8 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Water Heating  272.9 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Water 
Heating 

245.1 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Space Heating  195.1 

Education - Electricity - Lighting 
Education - Natural Gas - Space Heating 
Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Space Heating 
Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 
Other Commercial - Electricity - Lighting 

190.5 

178.9 

157.4 

152.3 

148.7 

3.94 
3.50 

111.30 
0.56 

33.19 
4.16 
2.78 
6.68 
9.29 

4.25 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Lighting programmes form 3 of the top 10 programmes for the commercial sector with 1206.6 ktoe of technical and economic potential. 
Lighting in wholesale and retail trade programme has the largest technical and economic savings with 867.4 ktoe. Space heating 
programmes form 5 out of 10 presents second largest potential with 1149.4 ktoe of energy saving potential of which 644.6 ktoe is economic.  

August 2020  

614 

 
 
 
All of the top technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.0 – 4.0), 
attributed by good policy measures and the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement as seen in 
Figure A15.26. This is particularly relevant for lighting programmes which are the most likely to succeed (score of 4.0). Natural gas space 
and water heating in Wholesale and Retail have the least likelihood success score of 3.0. 

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is natural gas cooking within education and wholesale & retail trade areas (CCEs of 
0.40 cent/kWh). The least cost-effective programmes among top 10 are the lighting programmes, with CCEs of 3.9 – 4.3 cent/kWh. 

Figure A15.26  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Italy in 2030 

August 2020  

615 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A15.5which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Water Heating. The top ESO is Faucet aerators with saving potential of 624.1 ktoe owing to low current uptake (17%) and high future 

■ 

■ 

uptake (100%)  
 Space heating and hot water heating. 4 out of top 10 ESOs correspond to space heating and hot water heating totalling 1101.1 ktoe of 
savings by 2030 owing to a high future uptake (35%-100%) 
 Lighting ESOs form the bottom 4 in the top 10 with a combined saving potential of 677.6 ktoe by 2030 owing to low current uptake 
(31%-39%) and high future uptake (100%). 

Table A15.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Italy in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

Building Recommissioning 
(Enhanced) 
New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Space Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W 
(Against 250W baseline) 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W 
(Against 200W baseline) 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 150 W 
(Against 400W baseline) 

10 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Lighting 

624.1 

355.8 

345.1 

251.3 

215.7 

184.5 

183.3 

170.0 

166.3 

158.0 

17% 

2% 

2% 

66% 

2% 

39% 

31% 

31% 

31% 

39% 

100% 

100% 

35% 

100% 

35% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

August 2020  

616 

 
 
 
A15.2.3 

Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A15.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies with process heating and machine drives, quantified as follows: 

Table A15.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Italy 

Programme Name 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Machine drives 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Machinery - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Machinery - Electricity - Machine drives 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Electricity - Machine 
drives 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 
364.0 

360.0 

310.4 

305.2 

290.4 

280.1 

280.0 

217.6 

206.6 

199.2 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

0.31 

0.31 

0.31 

1.60 

1.77 

0.37 

0.26 

0.37 

2.14 

1.66 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating programmes form 6 of the top 10 programmes for the industrial sector with technical and economic energy saving potential 
of 1812.1 ktoe. Natural gas process heating in Iron & Steel and other industry have the largest technical and economic saving potential of 
364.0 ktoe and 360.0 ktoe respectively. Machine drive programmes form the remaining 4 of the top 10 programmes with a technical and 
economic saving potential of 1001.4 ktoe. 

All top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.5 – 3.6) owing to 
the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures as 
seen in Figure A15.27. Machine drives in petroleum refineries and other industries have a high likelihood of success (score 3.6). The most 
cost-effective programme of the top 10 is process heating within petroleum refineries (CCE of 0.26 cent/kWh). The least cost-effective 

August 2020  

617 

 
 
 
programme is machine drives in machinery with a CCE of 2.14 cent/kWh. It should be noted that all process heating programmes within 
industry have a very low CCE and are all economic. 

Figure A15.27  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Italy in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A15.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process heating. 6 ESOs from top 10 are for process heating accounting for energy saving potential for 1563.2 ktoe owing to high future 

uptake. 

■  Machine drives. 4 ESOs from top 10 are for machine drive mainly for fans and pumps with saving potential of 962.1 ktoe due to low 

current uptake (21%-34%) and high future uptake (90%-100%). 

August 2020  

618 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A15.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Italy in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Advanced Heating and Process 
Control (Furnace) 

Premium efficiency control, with 
ASD (Fans) 

Premium Efficiency Control with 
ASDs (Other motors) 

Premium Efficiency Control with 
ASDs (Pumps) 

Impeller Trimming or Inlet Guide 
Vanes 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Machine drives 

Machine drives 

Machine drives 

Machine drives 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

10 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

304.8 

286.1 

286.1 

280.2 

275.8 

246.3 

229.9 

210.2 

204.0 

202.0 

51% 

51% 

51% 

38% 

22% 

22% 

34% 

21% 

61% 

31% 

100% 

94% 

94% 

90% 

100% 

90% 

98% 

100% 

100% 

89% 

August 2020  

619 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A15.2.4 

Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A15.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes for private cars, light duty vehicles, heavy good vehicles and public transport, quantified as 
follows: 

Table A15.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Italy 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

1509.9 

12.94 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

565.9 

418.0 

378.8 

83.9 

28.2 

8.6 

3.5 

3.2 

2.1 

5.52 

3.53 

3.91 

0.30 

1.49 

0.50 

4.85 

5.37 

0.07 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Programmes for private cars total 1538 ktoe for the transport sector, however only 28.2 ktoe is considered economic and this is for electric 
private cars. 4 of the top 10 programmes focus on light duty vehicles in freight and passenger transport totalling to 803.48 ktoe technical and 
economic potential by 2030. The other significant end-use is heavy goods vehicles programmes, which presents a technical and economic 
saving potential of 574.5 ktoe by 2030. Besides private cars all other programmes in top 10 are economic by 2030.   

August 2020  

620 

 
 
 
 
 
All top 10 energy efficiency programmes for transport sector have a high likelihood to succeed (score 3.8-4.2) owing to the low complexity of 
the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures as seen in Figure A15.28. 
Gasoline/Diesel heavy goods vehicles has highest likelihood of success (score –4.2).The least cost-effective programme is focused on the 
efficiency of private cars (CCE of 12.94 cent/kWh). Electric public road transport is the most cost-effective with CCE of 0.3 cent/kWh. 

Figure A15.28  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Italy in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A15.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
Overall the current uptake of all ESOs in transport sector is very low (<7%) with future uptake anticipated to go beyond 70% in some case. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private cars. The top ESO is through the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved efficiency) 

totalling to 1563.5 ktoe energy saving potential by 2030 owing to low current uptake (4%).  

August 2020  

621 

 
 
 
 
 
■  Light Duty Vehicles. There are 3 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles. They present a technical saving potential 
totalling 790.2 ktoe by 2030. These ESOs have a low current uptake (7%) when compared to private cars, however the future uptake is 
anticipated to be greater at 70%. 

■  Heavy Goods Vehicles. They form 4 of the top 10 ESOs and present technical energy savings of 489 ktoe by 2030. This is as a result of 

a low future uptake (40%) for the ESOs in this end-use. 

Table A15.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Italy in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency 
private car (5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency 
private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency 
private car (3%) 

 Private cars and 
public road transport 

648.2 

463.0 

452.2 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV 
(6%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV 
(4%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV 
(3%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(32.5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(30%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(25%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

348.9 

 Light duty vehicles 

246.3 

 Light duty vehicles 

195.0 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

147.4 

136.7 

113.9 

91.1 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(20%) 

10 

August 2020  

4% 

4% 

4% 

7% 

7% 

7% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

44% 

44% 

44% 

70% 

70% 

70% 

40% 

40% 

40% 

40% 

622 

 
 
 
A15.3 Recommendations 

A15.3.1 

Policy review  

Italian draft NECP has been prepared by three ministries: Economic Development, Environment and Infrastructure and Transport. The 
document shows a forecast of primary energy consumption of 158 Mtoe in 2020 and 125 Mtoe in 2030, compared to the latest historical 
value from 2017 at 149 Mtoe (a 16% reduction). 

Italy’s ambition in energy efficiency has been called sufficient by the European Commission and the measures to achieve these ambitions 
was well outlined in the draft NECP. Buildings and transportation sectors are in the spotlight in the document and in policy assessments. 
Measures to achieve Italy’s targets are based on existing policies that will be refined and amended to allow for more ambitious goals.  

Since the draft NECP has been submitted, there has been a number of developments in energy efficiency measures. The new Ecobonus 
2019 regulation was announced as part of the Budget Law. It is a tax deduction for smart heating and cooking equipment. Another new 
provision is targeting municipalities with 500 million euros allocated for 2019, with specific amounts allocated depending on the size of 
municipalities  

In April 2019, the Italian Government agreed on adoption of the 3.7-billion-euro National Strategy Plan for Sustainable Mobility aiming to help 
public transport operators with fleet modernisation towards low-carbon buses. In parallel a Strategy for New Policy of Mobility in Italy was 
launched in 2019. It outlines future measures that would incentivise modal shift in transport sector to increase its efficiency by lowering share 
of trip done by private cars. 

A15.3.2 

Policies and Measure analysis  

There is a total of 35 energy efficiency measures listed in the draft NECP and more than a third of them is aiming to improve energy 
efficiency in buildings and some of these measures are planned to operate up to 2030. In particular that is the case for Tax deduction for 
energy redistribution and building restructuring, White certificates scheme and National Fund for Energy Efficiency. These three policies are 
economic or fiscal and already implemented, in 2007, 2001 and 2014 respectively, but they are planned to be stepped up and in draft NECP 
have been shown as part of additional measures scenario because of that.  

There are 5 policies targeting services and public sectors, with three regulatory measures and two economic (Conto Termico and PREPAC). 
Only 3 policies in Italy are focused on industry, and only one of those is fiscal in nature. The fiscal industrial measure is called National 
Enterprise Plan 4.0 and is planned to be operational up to 2024 with 96 million EUR budgeted for each year. 

Italian transport has 15 dedicated measures to increase energy efficiency, six of which is economic. These include infrastructure upgrade, 
public transport fleet renewal and modal shift in freight transport.  

August 2020  

623 

 
 
 
Measures adopted in Italy tend to get mixed reviews, with positive aspects like persistency and transferability of policies. On the other hand, 
the measures analysed get poor scores on re-financing ease and stability, previous experience and avoidance of negative side-effects. 
Although it is worth noting that the analysis available are done on a smaller sub-set of measures, as many of them are to recent to assess, 
which feeds into a trend of low scores in experience. 

A15.3.3 

Recommendations  

Table A15.10 below shows 10 programmes with highest technical potential for energy savings. Residential sub-sector of multi-family 
apartments occupies first and second , with a total potential of 6,818 ktoe up to 2030. Natural gas based hot water heating and space 
heating in apartments are the two top programmes and they are followed by space heating and hot water heating in single-family houses. 
The total for the whole residential sector programmes that made it to the top 10, is 9,661 ktoe.  

Transport sector has a potential of roughly quarter of what residential sector has, that is 2873 ktoe. The highest potential amongst the 
transport end-uses has been identified to be private cars (fourth place), followed by heavy goods vehicles (seventh place) and light duty 
vehicles (ninth and tenth place). No industrial programmes made it to the top 10, the two remaining positions, sixth and eigth, have been 
filled by wholesale & retail trade sub-sector that has significant potentials to increase efficiency in lighting and space heating. 

Many of the top programmes come up as economical in the results shown. Only hot water heating with natural gas (in both multi- and single-
family houses) and private cars has shown to be uneconomic. 

Table A15.11 shows top 10 Energy Saving Opportunities (ESOs). As with the programmes, opportunities are also dominated by the 
residential sector, with 8 of the top 10 opportunities from that sector. There is, however, a reversal in to end-uses for the top opportunities, 
which tend to be related with space heating, not hot water heating as was the case for programmes. Building net-zero homes and energy 
efficient homes are the opportunities that have the highest savings potential. Also wall and basement wall insulation opportunities address 
space heating demand and those has been ranked seventh, and tenth. All the potential in space heating opportunities sums up to 3577 ktoe 
of savings. 

Other noticeable opportunities are low-flow shower heads, wastewater heat recovery, minimizing hot washes, that all affect hot water heating 
consumption and sum up to 1825 ktoe. Two opportunities not related to residential sector are more efficient private cars and faucet aerators 
belonging to transport and commercial sector respectively. No industrial opportunities can be found in the top 10.   

August 2020  

624 

 
 
 
Table A15.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Italy 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical 
potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  3657.0 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

3161.9 

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Commercial  Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

1573.8 

1509.9 

1268.6 

867.4 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles  565.9 

Commercial  Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

465.8 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles  418.0 

10 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

378.8 

18.78 

6.05 

15.31 

12.94 

6.09 

3.94 

5.52 

3.50 

3.53 

3.91 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Table A15.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Italy by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

Residential 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating  1289.3 

Residential  Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems  Hot water heating 

Residential 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above 
code) 

Space heating, Hot water 
heating, Cooling 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

718.3 

710.3 

648.2 

1% 

17% 

1% 

4% 

49% 

100% 

100% 

50% 

August 2020  

625 

 
 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Commercial 

Faucet Aerators 

Energy end-use 

Water Heating 

Residential 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes 
Wash 

Hot water heating 

Residential 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Space heating 

Residential 

Thermal Curtains 

Space heating 

Residential 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Residential  Wall Insulation 

Space heating, Cooling 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

624.1 

605.7 

552.4 

533.2 

501.3 

492.4 

17% 

8% 

15% 

30% 

10% 

15% 

41% 

44% 

100% 

48% 

100% 

48% 

Italy to meet that energy efficiency target set out in the draft NECP, should proceed with the following: 

1.  Continue investing in building renovations of existing housing stock by expanding funding and requirements of existing programmes in 

this area. 

2.  Encourage building of net-zero ready and highly efficient new buildings. 

3.  Organise an information campaign on energy efficient household best practice to encourage behavioural changes around windows and 

blinds usage, shower equipment and clothes washing practices. 

August 2020  

626 

 
 
 
 
 
Annex 16  Latvia 

A16.1 Summary 

Table A16.1 

Summary of modelling results for Latvia 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

1,207 

594 

765 

1,055 

3,621 

 262  

 116  

 185  

 35  

 598  

 127  

 35  

 182  

 15  

 359  

22% 

20% 

24% 

3% 

17% 

11% 

6% 

24% 

1% 

10% 

320 

August 2020  

627 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A16.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A16.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating and hot water 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (148.1 ktoe) 
and hot heating (107.6 ktoe). 

Figure A16.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

628 

 
 
 
 
Figure A16.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential over time based on sub-sectors. Multi-family apartments 
contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, multi-family homes have potential energy savings of 191.7 ktoe. 

Figure A16.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

629 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Hot 
water heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use are space heating 
(78.9 ktoe).  

Figure A16.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on residential energy end uses  

August 2020  

630 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Multi-family 
apartments contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, multi-family homes have potential energy savings of 91.2 ktoe. 

Figure A16.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on residential sub-sectors  

August 2020  

631 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 944.8 ktoe (22% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1080.2 ktoe (11% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 1207.0 ktoe.   

Figure A16.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Latvia  

August 2020  

632 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Latvia’s final energy consumption by 262.1 ktoe in 203. 

Figure A16.6 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. natural gas (49.6%), electricity (20.0%), and Other (19.7%), show 
the highest technical impact potential. 

Figure A16.6 

Primary energy impacts for Latvia based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

633 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A16.1.3 

Commercial   

Figure A16.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (76.8 ktoe) and 
water heating (23.3 ktoe). 

Figure A16.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

634 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other commercial 
and private and public offices contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, private and public offices have a potential savings of 
22.3 ktoe and other commercial have potential energy savings of 46.5 ktoe. 

Figure A16.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on commercial sub-sector  

August 2020  

635 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Water heating, lighting and space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by 
end use are water heating (14.3 ktoe) and lighting (10.0 ktoe). 

Figure A16.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on commercial energy end uses  

August 2020  

636 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Education and 
other commercial sectors contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of other commercial are 11.7 
ktoe, followed by education (8.7 ktoe). 

Figure A16.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on commercial sub-Sectors  

August 2020  

637 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 478.2 ktoe (20% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 558.9 ktoe (6% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 594.3 ktoe. 

Figure A16.11 

 Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Latvia  

August 2020  

638 

 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Latvia’s final energy consumption by 116.1 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A16.12 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Electricity (53.7%), natural gas (28.8%) show the highest technical 
impact potential. 

Figure A16.12  Primary energy impacts for Latvia based on technical potential for commercial sector 

A16.1.4 

Industrial     

Figure A16.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (164 ktoe) and 
machine drives (13 ktoe).   

August 2020  

639 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A16.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Uncategorised 
(other) industries contain the highest potential over time, followed by non-metallic minerals and food and tobacco. In 2030, potential 
technical energy savings of other industries are 137 ktoe, for non-metallic minerals savings are 19 ktoe while for food and tobacco savings 
are 19 ktoe. 

August 2020  

640 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on industrial sub-sectors 

Figure A16.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (164 ktoe) and machine drives (13 ktoe).   

August 2020  

641 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A16.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Uncategorised 
(other) industries contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of other industries are 136 ktoe, 
followed by food and tobacco (19 ktoe). 

August 2020  

642 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.16  Economic energy savings over timeframe for Latvia based on industrial sub-sectors  

Figure A16.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 581 ktoe (24% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 583 ktoe (24% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 765 ktoe.    

August 2020  

643 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Latvia  

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Latvia’s final energy consumption by 185 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A16.18 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Electricity (39%), natural gas (29%), RPP (15%) show the highest 
technical impact potential. 

August 2020  

644 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.18  Primary energy impacts for Latvia based on technical potential for industrial sector.  

A16.1.5 

Transport     

Figure A16.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the 
highest potential energy savings over time, followed by heavy goods vehicles. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use 
are private cars (18.6 ktoe) and heavy goods vehicles (8.2 ktoe).   

August 2020  

645 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A16.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passenger transport has a potential savings of 25.1 ktoe and freight 
transport has potential energy savings of 9.8 ktoe. 

August 2020  

646 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.20 

 Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on transport sub-sectors  

Figure A16.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are heavy 
good vehicles (8.2 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (4.5 ktoe).   

August 2020  

647 

 
 
 
 
Figure A16.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on transport energy end uses  

Figure A16.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of freight transport is (8.2 ktoe), followed by 
passenger transport (7.3 ktoe). 

August 2020  

648 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Latvia based on transport sub-sectors  

Figure A16.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1015.8 ktoe (3% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1,036.4 ktoe (1% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 1,054.6 ktoe.    

August 2020  

649 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.23  Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Latvia  

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Latvia’s final energy consumption by 34.9 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A16.24 provides a breakdown of primary energy impacts potential. Gasoline/diesel (94.7%) shows the highest technical impact 
potential. 

August 2020  

650 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A16.24  Primary energy impacts for Latvia based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

651 

 
 
 
 
A16.2 Discussion 

A16.2.1 

Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A16.2 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in space heating and hot water heating end-use programmes 

Table A16.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Latvia 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

58.3 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

35.7 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  34.9 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Hot water heating 

18.3 

15.1 

14.5 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating 

13.6 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

13.0 

12.5 

12.0 

3.46 

7.37 

24.05 

3.43 

7.32 

2.70 

17.37 

24.06 

19.46 

7.41 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

Space heating end-use programmes account for 5 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes, and the top 2 are both space heating 
programmes. As a result, they have the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 227.8 ktoe in of total savings, 
of which space heating accounts for 139.3 ktoe (61.1%) of that total. However, only 76.6 ktoe in space heating (33.6% as a proportion of the 
total) will be economic by 2030. The end-use with the second highest potential technical saving is hot water heating programmes. They 
make up 88.5 ktoe (38.8%) of the total savings.  

Figure A16.25 shows the top energy efficiency programmes. All programmes have a high likelihood of success, with scores from 3.5-4.8 out 
of 5. Lighting programmes have the highest likelihood, with space heating and hot water heating ranging from 3.5-3.8. 

August 2020  

652 

 
 
 
Due to low cost effectiveness, hot water heating using all forms of energy apart from “other” sources do not make the top 10, despite being 
in the top 10 by technical potential. Of those remaining, space heating programmes in multi-family apartments have the lowest cost-
effectiveness, with CCEs of 7.3-7.4 cent/kWh. Lighting programmes are the most cost-effective with CCEs of 0.68-1.0 cent/kWh.  

Figure A16.25  Top energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Latvia in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A16.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

August 2020  

653 

 
 
 
 
 
■  Space Heating – Space heating end-use ESOs account for 2 of the top 10 ESOs and have total technical potential energy savings by 

2030 of 48.9 ktoe. Both ESOs have low current uptake (4%-15%), and moderate 2030 uptake (38%-55%). 

■  Hot Water Heating – Hot water heating end-use ESOs account for 3 of the top 10 ESOs and have total technical potential energy 

savings by 2030 of 45.7 ktoe. Wastewater heat recovery systems account for 27.7 ktoe, owing to low current uptake (5%) rather than 
high future uptake (38%). 

■  Space Heating and Cooling – Space heating and cooling end-use ESOs account for 3 of the top 10 ESOs and have total technical 
potential energy savings by 2030 of 50 ktoe. Wall insulation contributes 21.7 ktoe of savings towards this total, and the savings are a 
result of low current uptake (4%) rather than high future uptake (38%), a common trend for this end-use. 

Table A16.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Latvia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 
Thermal Curtains 

Wall Insulation 

Air Infiltration 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

End-use category 

Hot water heating 
Space heating 
Space heating 
Space heating, Cooling 
Space heating, Cooling 
Hot water heating, Space heating 
Space heating, Cooling 
Hot water heating 

27.7 

25.3 
23.6 

21.7 

18.9 

17.6 

12.3 

9.7 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code)  Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling  9.3 
8.3 
Heat Pump Water Heater  

Hot water heating 

5% 

4% 

15% 

4% 

4% 

0% 

4% 

10% 

0% 

5% 

38% 

38% 

55% 

38% 

49% 

48% 

38% 

100% 

40% 

82% 

A16.2.2 

Commercial 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A16.4 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in space heating and lighting end-use programmes 

Table A16.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Latvia 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Other Commercial - Other   - Space Heating 

12.2 

8.33 

No 

August 2020  

654 

 
 
 
Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Other   - Space Heating 

Education - Other   - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

8.6 

6.7 

6.1 

4.7 

4.3 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Other   - Space Heating 

4.0 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating  3.9 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Lighting 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Water Heating 

3.8 

3.5 

8.33 

40.07 

11.47 

3.50 

11.47 

4.39 

40.32 

5.16 

10.46 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Space heating end-use programmes form 8 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and have 
the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 57.8 ktoe in of total savings, of which space heating accounts for 
50.5 ktoe (87.4%) of that total. However, no space heating programmes will be economic by 2030. The end-use with the second highest 
technical potential savings is lighting. It makes up 5.5 ktoe (6.6%) of the total savings and the programme is expected to be economic by 
2030. Because no space heating programmes are economic by 2030, of the top 10 programmes, only 7.3 ktoe is economic by 2030 
(12.6%). 

August 2020  

655 

 
 
 
Figure A16.26 presents the top energy efficiency programmes for the commercial sector, and due to low technical potential of some 
programmes, only 8 programmes by top technical potential are included, with electric and natural gas space heating in Offices being 
replaced by two lighting programmes. Although most programmes have a high cost effectiveness (3.6-5.0), this is purely a measurement of 
their cost-effectiveness relative to other programmes within the commercial sector. When we look at the CCEs of each programme 
individually, only one has a CCE less than 4.4 cent/kWh and as a result the Space Heating with Other Fuels in Education programme is the 
only 10 top programme by technical potential to be economic by 2030.  

Figure A16.26  Top energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Latvia in 2030 

August 2020  

656 

 
 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A16.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space Heating – Space heating end-use ESOs accounts for the highest of the top 10 ESOs and has total technical potential energy 

savings by 2030 of 18.1 ktoe. This is due to low current uptake (3%) and high future uptake (70%). 

■  Space Heating and Hot Water – Space heating and hot water end-use ESOs account for 4 of the top 10 ESOs and have total technical 
potential energy savings by 2030 of 42.7 ktoe. This is largely due to low current uptake, although advanced BAS/controllers have current 
uptake of 50%. This is an outlier, as the other 3 have current uptake of 0%.  

■  Hot Water Heating – Hot water heating end-use ESOs account for 1 of the top 10 ESOs and have total technical potential energy 

savings by 2030 of 6.6 ktoe. This is due to an increase in uptake of 50%. 

Table A16.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Latvia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current 
uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Space Heating 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Space Heating, Water Heating, 
Space Cooling 

High-Performance Glazing 

Space Heating, Space Cooling 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting 

10 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Lighting 

18.1 

16.1 

13.0 

8.1 

6.6 

5.5 

2.8 

2.7 

2.7 

2.4 

3% 

0% 

0% 

0% 

60% 

50% 

50% 

3% 

50% 

50% 

70% 

100% 

33% 

33% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

36% 

100% 

100% 

August 2020  

657 

 
 
 
A16.2.3 

Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A16.6 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in process heating and machine drives end-use programmes 

Table A16.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Latvia 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

Other Industry - Other   - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

Other Industry - RPP - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Food and Tobacco - Other   - Process Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Other   - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Coal - Process Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

58.0 

27.8 

16.8 

14.3 

9.6 

7.7 

7.4 

6.0 

4.1 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating  3.9 

0.20 

0.27 

0.43 

0.27 

1.54 

0.24 

0.20 

0.27 

0.27 

0.32 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating end-use programmes account for 9 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, 
and have the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 155.7 ktoe in total savings, of which process heating 
accounts for 146.1 ktoe (93.8%) of that total. The end-use with the second highest technical potential savings is machine drives. They make 
up 9.6 ktoe (6.6%) of the total savings and the programme is expected to be economic by 2030.  

August 2020  

658 

 
 
 
Figure A16.27 presents the top energy efficiency programmes for the industrial sector, of which one process heating programme drops out 
for a HVAC programme. The figure clearly shows a disparity between the cost effectiveness of machine drives (0.0) and process heating 
(3.6 – 4.4) programmes, and the CCE for process heating programmes present are very low (0.2 – 0.4 cent/kWh). HVAC based programme 
has the highest likelihood to succeed with 4.8. All programmes have an exceptionally high likelihood of success (4.5-4.8), owing to the low 
complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. 

Figure A16.27  Top energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Latvia in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A16.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process Heating – Process heating end-use ESOs account for all top 10 ESOs and have total technical potential energy savings by 

2030 of 88.3  ktoe. Current and future uptake varies considerably within this end-use category (6-51% current, 74-100% future). When 
the increase in uptake for each ESO is taken into consideration, the spread is less, with 5 ESOs having predicted uptake of 58%-69%, 

August 2020  

659 

 
 
 
 
 
and the other 5 between 43% - 52%. There is also no significant correlation between increase in uptake and technical potential energy 
savings by 2030. 

Table A16.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Latvia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process 
Control (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process 
Control (Dryer) 

Process Heating 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery 
(Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace)  Process Heating 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery 
(Dryer) 

Process Heating 

Flue gas monitoring (Dryer) 

Process Heating 

Boiler right sizing 

Process Heating 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

10 

Preventative Furnace 
Maintenance 

Process Heating 

17.6 

10.4 

9.5 

9.2 

9.0 

8.3 

8.1 

5.6 

5.6 

5.0 

51% 

38% 

9% 

11% 

32% 

6% 

9% 

51% 

51% 

49% 

100% 

90% 

76% 

80% 

89% 

74% 

76% 

94% 

94% 

100% 

August 2020  

660 

 
 
 
 
A16.2.4 

Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A16.8 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in private cars and heavy goods vehicles programmes 

Table A16.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Latvia 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

17.8 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

7.8 

4.4 

1.9 

1.6 

0.8 

0.4 

0.1 

0.1 

0.0 

9.70 

5.16 

3.77 

0.34 

14.85 

1.20 

0.50 

0.09 

5.60 

22.04 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Private cars end-use programmes account for 2 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and 
have the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 34.9 ktoe in of total savings, of which private cars account for 
18.6 ktoe (53.3%) of that total. However, gasoline/diesel private cars in the passenger sector are not economic by 2030, which has technical 
potential of 17.8 ktoe. As a result, only 0.8 ktoe (2.3%) of process heating programmes are economic by 2030. The end-use with the second 

August 2020  

661 

 
 
 
 
highest technical potential savings is heavy goods vehicles . They make up 8.2 ktoe (23.5%) of the total savings and the programme is 
expected to be economic by 2030.  

Figure A16.28 shows the top energy efficiency programmes for the transport sector and is made up of the top 10 programmes by technical 
potential. The programmes deemed to be uneconomic by 2030 have a cost effectiveness score less than or equal to 2.8, while those 
predicted to be economic have scores greater than or equal to 3.8. Gasoline/diesel light duty vehicles for freight has the highest CCE of 
these (14.85 cent/kWh) while all others deemed economic have CCE of 3.9 – 4.9 cent/kWh.  

Figure A16.28  Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Latvia in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A16.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

August 2020  

662 

 
 
 
 
■  Private Cars – The two private car ESOs account for 12.8 ktoe, and gains are attributed to low current uptake (2%) rather than future 
uptake (18%). Of those, there is a positive correlation between level of improved vehicle efficiency and technical potential energy 
savings. This is a pattern which can be observed throughout the ESOs, and it not confined to the private cars end use programmes 
■  Private Cars and Public Road Vehicles - The 2 private cars and private road vehicles end-use ESO programmes account for 7.8 ktoe, 

and gains are attributed to low current uptake (0% - 2%) rather than future uptake (6% - 18%). 

■  Light Duty Vehicle. The 3 LDV ESOs presents a total technical saving potential of 6.0 ktoe. This is due to a sizeable change in uptake 
between 2020 and 2030, with a predicted increase of 42%. On the whole, improving LDV efficiency provides higher technical potential 
energy savings that the HGV equivalent, but less technical potential energy savings than private cars.  

■  Heavy Goods Vehicles - The 3 ESOs attaining to HGVs have the technical energy savings of 5.2 ktoe. High technical potential energy 

savings can be attributed to low current uptake (1%) as uptake is not expected to be particularly high by 2030 (11%).  

Table A16.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Latvia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

Improved vehicle efficiency private 
car (5%) 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private 
car (3%) 

 Private cars and public road 
transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency private 
car (4%) 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV 
(6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV 
(4%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

7.5 

6.0 

5.3 

2.6 

1.9 

1.9 

1.8 

2% 

2% 

2% 

5% 

1% 

5% 

1% 

18% 

18% 

18% 

47% 

11% 

47% 

11% 

August 2020  

663 

 
 
 
Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

8 

9 

10 

Fuel efficient tyres, C1 

 Private cars and public road 
transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV 
(3%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

1.8 

1.5 

1.5 

0% 

1% 

5% 

6% 

11% 

47% 

A16.3 Recommendations 

A16.3.1 

Policy Review 

In its draft NECP, Latvia proposed a reduction of 6% in its final non-ETS GHG emissions for 2030 compared to 2005. In terms of energy 
consumption, Latvia has set its national contribution for 2030 at 4.3 Mtoe of primary energy consumption and of 3.6 Mtoe of final energy 
consumption. The Commission has assessed the primary energy consumption target as of low ambition and the final energy consumption 
target as of modest ambition, considering EU goals for 2030. 

Emissions in the transport sector have risen by 9.4% in 2018 compared to 1990 levels. Transport accounts for 30% of Latvia’s energy 
consumption, and 92% of energy consumption in the transport sector comes from mineral oil products. Moreover, Latvia has the oldest 
passenger car fleet in the EU with the average age of a vehicle being around 12 years, and the use of public transport has decrease 7% 
between 2014 and 2018. 

Multiple revisions of Latvia’s transport sector regulatory framework have been undertaken recently and investments have been made in 
infrastructure with the goal of improving energy efficiency in the sector. These focus mainly on promoting electric vehicles through measures 
that include tax exemptions or reductions, and free usage of charging stations. Future measures for the transport sector mentioned in 
Latvia’s NECP could be further refined. 

In its draft NECP, Latvia mentions several initiatives for improving energy efficiency in buildings, including a target for building renovation 
and the development of nearly net zero energy buildings. However, the Commission has assessed that these need to be further refined to 
include details regarding their impacts, status and needs for EU funding. Furthermore, the only measure presented in Latvia’s NECP 
targeted specifically at the Industry is an energy audit scheme for industrial buildings. 

August 2020  

664 

 
 
 
A16.3.2 

Policies and Measures Analysis 

There are multiple cross-cutting measures identified in Latvia for energy efficiency (12). Only two of them are listed as having already been 
implemented and 4 have an economic or regulatory focus. Cross-cutting measures include the energy efficiency obligation scheme, a 
measure for increasing performance of industrial building, provision of funding, and accounting for energy efficiency in public procurements. 

There are 8 energy efficiency measures focused on the building sector in Latvia’s draft NECP, six of which have already been implemented. 
Four of them are described as having a regulatory or fiscal focus. While two of these policies are broad and cover all types of buildings (i.e. 
residential, commercial and public), three are specific for the public sector and another three are specific for residential buildings. Policies in 
the building sector include district heating and cooling efficiency programmes, and the establishment of a new financial instrument for multi 
apartment building and implementing energy efficiency measures.  

There is only a single policy in Latvia’s draft NECP that focuses specifically on the industrial sector, which consists of promoting the 
improvement of energy efficiency of SMEs by introducing energy audit and energy management systems. This is listed as a regulatory policy 
not yet implemented. 

There are three measures for energy efficiency in the transport sector in Latvia’s draft NECP. None has been implemented yet and all have 
a fiscal or regulatory focus. These measures cover increasing VAT for all vehicles with an increment for high emission vehicles, promoting 
the purchase of EVs, reviewing and reducing excise duty for alternative fuels, developing cycling infrastructure, and optimising public 
transport networks and coverage. 

From the policies implemented with and before NEEAP 3, Latvia’s energy efficiency measures were adjudged to be supportive of positive 
side-effects and easily accepted by relevant stakeholders. However, the financial measures implemented have little financial independence 
which might compromise the stability of these programmes and policies. 

A16.3.3 

Recommendations 

The top 10 programmes for Latvia ranked by the technical energy saving potential are shown in Table A16.10, and the corresponding top 
ESOs are presented in Table A16.11. 

The top two energy saving programmes are from the residential and industrial sector, focusing on space heating in multifamily apartments 
and on process heating in multiple industrial sub-sectors. These two programmes have the largest energy saving potential by some margin 
when compared against the next programme in the residential sector (space heating specifically from natural gas in multifamily houses) as 
the difference is over 20 ktoe. The fourth and fifth top programmes are also from the residential and industrial sectors with a focus on water 
heating in multifamily houses and process heating from natural gas in the industry. Among the top 5 programmes, three are evaluated as 
being economic. 

August 2020  

665 

 
 
 
Only one ESO listed in Table A16.11 related to the transport sector, focused specifically on gasoline and diesel consumption in private 
passenger cars. There are a multiple ESOs that target the commercial sector focusing on space heating, new buildings and building 
recommissioning. 

Existing or planned measures for the building sector seem to point towards the right direction with several focusing on residential and public 
buildings and an energy audit scheme for industrial buildings. Still, these can be further refined to ensure enough specificity and clarity. With 
regards to the transport sector, Latvia’s policies currently target promoting electric vehicles and optimising public transportation. Notably, 
there is a gap regarding the Industrial sector. To explore the energy savings potential from the top programmes listed in Table A16.10, Latvia 
should develop policies focused on improving energy efficiency in industrial process heating from multiple energy sources. 

Table A16.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Latvia 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

Industrial  Other Industry - Other   - Process Heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  34.9 

24.05 

Industrial  Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

Transport  Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Industrial  Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

10 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Other - Hot water heating 

Table A16.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Latvia by 2030 

Technical 
potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

58.3 

58.0 

35.7 

3.46 

0.20 

7.37 

27.8 

18.3 

17.8 

16.8 

15.1 

14.5 

0.27 

3.43 

9.70 

0.43 

7.32 

2.70 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

Residential  Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems  Hot water heating 

Residential  Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Space heating 

27.7 

25.3 

5% 

4% 

100% 

38% 

August 2020  

666 

 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Thermal Curtains 

Residential  Wall Insulation 

Residential  Air Infiltration 

Space heating 

23.6 

Space heating, Cooling  21.7 

Space heating, Cooling  18.9 

Commercial  Electric Air-Source Cold Climate 

Space Heating 

Heat Pumps 

Residential  Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, 
Space heating 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Commercial  Building Recommissioning 
(Enhanced) 

10 

Commercial  New Construction - 40% Better 

To fulfil its 2030 energy efficiency target Latvia should: 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating 

18.1 

17.6 

17.6 

16.1 

13.0 

15% 

4% 

4% 

3% 

0% 

51% 

0% 

0% 

70% 

38% 

100% 

38% 

33% 

49% 

100% 

48% 

1.  Refine policy measures for the transport sector with a focus on improving efficiency of passenger cars and incentivising public 

transportation. 

2.  Refine policy measures for the building sector with a focus on space and water heating in multifamily apartments. 

3.  Design policies and measures for the Industrial sector with a focus on space heating from multiple energy sources (e.g. natural gas, 

electricity, other). 

August 2020  

667 

 
 
 
Annex 17  Lithuania 

A17.1 Summary 

Table A17.1 

Summary of modelling results for Lithuania 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

1,290 

586 

1,484 

1,445 

4,805 

 274  

 125  

 364  

 85  

 847  

 57  

 46  

 355  

 66  

 524  

21% 

21% 

25% 

6% 

18% 

4% 

8% 

24% 

5% 

11% 

426 

August 2020  

668 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A17.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A17.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating and hot water 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use fall under space heating (146 
ktoe) and hot water heating (112 ktoe).   

Figure A17.1 

Technical energy savings over timeframe for Lithuania based on residential end uses 

August 2020  

669 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A17.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 145 ktoe. 

Figure A17.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Lithuania based on residential sub-sectors  

August 2020  

670 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A17.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Hot 
water heating and space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
hot water heating (39 ktoe) and lighting (10 ktoe).  

Figure A17.3 

Economic energy savings over timeframe for Lithuania based on residential energy end uses  

August 2020  

671 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A17.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 43 ktoe. 

Figure A17.4 

Economic energy savings over timeframe for Lithuania based on residential sub-sectors  

Figure A17.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1016.3 ktoe (21% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1233.8 ktoe (4% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 1,290.3 ktoe.    

August 2020  

672 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A17.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Lithuania 

The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Lithuania’s final energy consumption by 298.13 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A17.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (29.01%) and natural gas 
(28.86%) contain the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

673 

 
 
 
 
Figure A17.6 

Primary Energy Impacts for Lithuania Based on Technical Potential 

August 2020  

674 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A17.1.3 

Commercial 

Figure A17.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under space heating (67 ktoe). 

Figure A17.7 

Technical energy savings over timeframe for Lithuania based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

675 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A17.8 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale & retail trade, 
private and public offices and the education sector contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, wholesale & retail trade could have 
potential energy savings of (35 ktoe), followed by private and public offices (33ktoe) and the education sector (32 ktoe). 

Figure A17.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Lithuania based on commercial sub-sectors  

August 2020  

676 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A17.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Water 
heating and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are lighting (23 
ktoe) and water heating (11 ktoe). 

Figure A17.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Lithuania based on commercial energy end uses  

August 2020  

677 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A17.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale & 
retail trade, private and public offices and the education sector contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, wholesale and retail trade will 
provide potential energy savings of (16 ktoe), followed by the education sector (13 ktoe) and private and public offices (9 ktoe). 

Figure A17.10  Economic energy savings over timeframe for Lithuania based on commercial sub-sectors  

August 2020  

678 

 
 
 
 
Figure A17.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 460.9 ktoe (21% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 539.4 ktoe (8% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is (585.5 ktoe). 

Figure A17.11  Total Technical and Economic Potential Consumption Scenarios for Lithuania  

August 2020  

679 

 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Lithuania’s final energy consumption by 124.6 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A17.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (61.93%) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

Figure A17.12  Primary energy impacts for Lithuania based on technical potential for commercial sector 

A17.1.4 

Industrial 

Figure A17.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under process heating (247 ktoe).   

August 2020  

680 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A17.13  Technical energy savings over timeframe for Lithuania based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A17.14 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Petroleum refineries 
contain the highest potential over time, followed by chemicals and petrochemicals. In 2030, petroleum refineries could have potential energy 
savings of (128 ktoe) and chemicals and petrochemicals (76 ktoe). 

August 2020  

681 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A17.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Lithuania based on industrial sub-sectors  

Figure A17.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use fall under process 
heating (247 ktoe).  

August 2020  

682 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A17.15  Economic energy savings over timeframe for Lithuania based on industrial energy end uses  

Figure A17.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Petroleum 
refineries contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, petroleum refineries could have potential energy savings of 127 ktoe. 

August 2020  

683 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A17.16  Economic energy savings over timeframe for Lithuania based on industrial sub-sectors  

Figure A17.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1,120 ktoe (25% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1,129 ktoe (24% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 1,484 ktoe.   

August 2020  

684 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A17.17  Total Technical and Economic Potential Consumption Scenarios for Lithuania 

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Lithuania’s final energy consumption by 364 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A17.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (25%) and electricity (59%) 
contain the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

685 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A17.18  Primary energy impacts for Lithuania based on technical potential for industrial sector 

A17.1.5 

Transport  

Figure A17.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Heavy goods vehicles contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under heavy goods vehicles (48.5 ktoe). 

August 2020  

686 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A17.19  Technical energy savings over timeframe for Lithuania based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A17.20 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Freight transport contains 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, freight transport could have potential energy savings of (51.5 ktoe). 

August 2020  

687 

 
 
 
 
Figure A17.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe in Lithuania based on transport sub-sectors  

Figure A17.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use fall under heavy 
goods vehicles (48.5 ktoe). 

August 2020  

688 

 
 
 
 
Figure A17.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Lithuania based on transport energy end uses  

Figure A17.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Freight transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, freight transport could have potential energy savings of (48.5 ktoe). 

August 2020  

689 

 
 
 
 
Figure A17.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Lithuania based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A17.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1,351.2ktoe (6% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1,364.8 ktoe (5% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 1,444.7 ktoe.    

August 2020  

690 

 
 
 
 
Figure A17.23  Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Lithuania 

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Lithuania’s final energy consumption by 84.98 TOE in 2030. 

Figure A17.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (95.25%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

691 

 
 
 
 
Figure A17.24  Primary energy impacts for Lithuania based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

692 

 
 
 
 
A17.2 Discussion 

A17.2.1 

Residential 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A17.2 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in space heating and hot water heating end-use programmes 

Table A17.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Lithuania 

Programme Name 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 
37.1 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 
Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

35.4 

25.2 

24.3 

23.8 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  23.3 

Single family houses - Other - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Hot water heating 

14.2 

13.8 

11.0 

9.1 

3.88 
3.85 
21.86 
8.32 
8.28 
27.01 
2.63 
14.39 
19.51 
3.03 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Space heating end-use programmes account for four out of the top ten technical efficiency programmes, of which they occupy the top two 
programmes. As a result, they have the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top ten accounts for 217.2 ktoe in of total savings, 
of which space heating accounts for 120.7 ktoe (55.6%) of that total. However, only 72.5 ktoe (33.4% as a proportion of the total) will be 
economic by 2030. Due to natural gas space heating not being economic by 2030. The end-use with the second highest potential technical 
saving is hot water heating programmes. They makes up 96.5 ktoe (42.0%) of the total savings, although of this only 48.0 ktoe (22.1% as a 
poportion of the top ten) is predicted to be economic by 2030.  

August 2020  

693 

 
 
 
Figure A17.25 shows the top 10 energy efficiency programmes and, because of low yearly savings and the relative cost ineffectiveness of 
hot water heating programmes when compared to other end-uses, electricity and natural gas hot water heating in multifamily apartments 
programmes are not present. Owing to very high cost effectiveness, lighting programmes in single- and multi-family homes have taken their 
place.  
There is a clear difference in terms of likelihood of success between water and space heating programmes versus lighting, with heating 
programmes having scores ranging form 3.3 – 3.6, and lighting programmes having scores of 4.5. When it comes to cost effectiveness, 
again single family houses natural gas and electricity hot water programmes are the only programmes with double-digit CCEs of 21.9 and 
14.4 cent/kWh, respectively. Space and water programmes using “other” fuels range in CCE from 2.6 – 3.9 cent/kWh. Lighting programmes 
are clearly the most cost-effective with CCEs 0.76 and 1.1 for multi- and single-family homes, respectively.  

Figure A17.25  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Lithuania in 2030 

August 2020  

694 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A17.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Hot Water Heating – Hot water heating end-use ESOs have total technical energy savings by 2030 of 45.9 ktoe, although primarily the 

wastewater heat recovery system ESO can have those savings attributed to a large change in uptake.  

■  Space Heating – Space heating end-use ESOs have total technical potential energy savings by 2030 of 41.9 ktoe. Thermal curtains for 

windows ranks second, with savings of 23.2 largely due to low current uptake (15%) and reasonable future uptake (55%) 

■  Space Heating and Cooling – Space Heating and Cooling end use ESOs have total technical energy savings by 2030 of 63.6 ktoe. 
These substantial savings are not due to particularly high levels of future uptake, with each ESO predicted to have a less than 50% 
change in uptake.  

Table A17.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Lithuania in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Thermal Curtains 
Wall Insulation 

Air Infiltration 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

End-use category 

Hot water heating 
Space heating 
Space heating, Cooling 
Space heating, Cooling 
Space heating 
Hot water heating, Space heating 
Space heating, Cooling 
Hot water heating 

26.8 

23.2 
21.4 

19.3 

18.7 

16.1 

14.6 

11.3 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code)  Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling  8.2 
7.8 
Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Hot water heating 

5% 

15% 

20% 

20% 

20% 

0% 

20% 

10% 

0% 

5% 

38% 

55% 

53% 

63% 

53% 

48% 

53% 

100% 

40% 

45% 

695 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

August 2020  

 
 
 
A17.2.2 

Commercial 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A17.4 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in space heating and lighting end-use programmes 

Table A17.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Lithuania 

Programme Name 

Private and Public Offices - Other   - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 
Wholesale & Retail Trade - Other   - Space Heating 

Education - Other   - Space Heating 

Education - Electricity - Lighting 

9.6 

9.5 

9.0 

5.5 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating  4.9 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

Education - Electricity - Space Heating 

4.0 

3.9 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Water Heating  3.7 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

3.5 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 
10.6 

12.89 
5.38 
4.93 
3.93 
5.68 
45.30 
5.82 
45.18 
13.66 
12.89 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Space heating end-use programmes account for 6 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes, and 3 of the top 4 are space heating 
programmes. As a result, they have the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 61.4 ktoe in of total savings, of 
which space heating accounts for 41.3 ktoe (64.4%) of that total. However, 0.0 ktoe of that will be economic by 2030. The end-use with the 
second highest potential technical saving is lighting programmes. They makes up 19.1 ktoe (29.8%) of the total savings, all of which is 
predicicted to be economic by 2030.  

August 2020  

696 

 
 
 
Figure A17.26 shows the top energy efficiency programmes, and due to low cost efficiency and low technical potential, natural gas space 
heating in education and Offices do not make the top programmes, despite being in the top 10 for technical potential, having been replaced 
by lighting programmes in Health and Other Commercial. All programmes have a high likelihood of success (3.1 – 4.3), owing to the low 
complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. 

Of those programmes with a cost effectiveness score greater than 0, space heating, lighting and water heating all present viable 
programmes. Lighting programmes have the highest likelihood of success (4.3) while space heating with Other Fuels in Education and 
Wholesale & Retail are most cost effective (CCEs 3.9-4.9 cent/kWh). Water and Space Heating programmes in Offices are the least cost-
effective, with CCEs of 13.7 and 45.3 cent/kWh, respectively. 

Figure A17.26  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Lithuania in 2030 

August 2020  

697 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A17.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space Heating – Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps is the sole ESO among the top ten which focused only on Space heating 
end-use. It is also the highest technical potential for any ESO having total technical potential energy savings by 2030 of 19.2 ktoe. Its 
savings are predominantly down to a large increase in uptake, from 3% - 70%.  

■  Space Heating and Hot Water Heating – Space heating and hot water heating end-use ESOs account for 3 of the top 10 ESOs and 

have total technical potential energy savings by 2030 of 33.6 ktoe. New construction ESOs have 0% uptake now, although future uptake 
is relatively low compared to other ESOs (33%). Building recommissioning goes from 0% current uptake to universal future uptake, the 
only ESO in the top 10 to experience such uptake and a reason behind it being the second ranked ESO by technical potential energy 
savings.   

■  Lighting – Lighting end-use ESOs have total technical potential energy savings by 2030 of 9.4 ktoe and make up 4 of the top 10 ESOs 

in the commercial sector. All have current uptake of 33% and future uptake of 100% 

Table A17.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Lithuania in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 
New Construction - 40% Better 

Faucet Aerators 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W 
(Against 250W baseline) 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W 
(Against 200W baseline) 

Ground Source Heatpump 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 150 W 
(Against 400W baseline) 

End-use category 

Space Heating 

Space Heating, Water Heating 
Space Heating, Water Heating 
Water Heating 
Space Heating, Water Heating 
Lighting 

Lighting 

Space Heating, Space Cooling 
Lighting 

10 

LED Troffers - 2x4 Recessed Light 
Fixture 

Lighting 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future 
uptake (2030) 

19.2 

14.6 
11.7 

9.0 

7.3 

2.5 

2.3 

2.3 

2.3 

2.3 

3% 

0% 

0% 

60% 

0% 

33% 

33% 

3% 

33% 

33% 

70% 

100% 

33% 

100% 

33% 

100% 

100% 

43% 

100% 

100% 

August 2020  

698 

 
 
 
A17.2.3 

Industrial 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A17.6 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in process heating and machine drives end-use programmes 

Table A17.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Lithuania 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Machine drives 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

43.4 

30.8 

25.2 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - Process Heating  21.6 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Electricity - Machine drives 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Petroleum refineries - Coal - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

17.7 

16.4 

14.1 

13.5 

12.6 

11.6 

0.23 

1.39 

0.27 

0.26 

0.37 

0.32 

1.45 

1.54 

0.23 

0.43 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating end-use programmes account for 7 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes. As a result, they have the highest 
savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 206.9 ktoe in of total savings, of which process heating accounts for 148.5 ktoe 
(71.8%) of that total. 100.0% of that will be economic by 2030, as are all programmes in the top 10. The end-use with the second highest 
potential technical saving are machine drives programmes. They makes up 58.4 ktoe (28.2%) of the total savings.  

Figure A17.27 shows the top energy efficiency programmes. Three machine drives end-use programmes made it into the top 10 energy 
efficiency programmes which have the highest liklehood to succeed score of 3.7. However, its low cost effectiveness score of 0.0-0.5 
demonstrates the relative cost inefficiency of machine drives programmes when compared to other energy efficiency programmes. Due to 
their low CCE scores (0.2 – 0.5 cent/kWh) process heating programmes have cost effectiveness scores of 3.8 – 4.3, with natural gas 
process heating in petroleum refineries proving the most cost-effective method (4.3) with highest technical potential (43.4 ktoe)  

August 2020  

699 

 
 
 
Figure A17.27  Top energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Lithuania in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A17.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process Heating – Process heating end-use ESOs account for 8 of the top 10 ESOs and have total technical potential energy savings 
by 2030 of 133.6 ktoe. Advanced heating and process control has the highest technical potential energy savings (27.1 ktoe), while two 
flue gas monitoring ESOs have combined potential savings of 40.3. This to 3 all have reasonably high current intake (32%-52%) but 
expect almost universal uptake by 2030 (90%-100%). 

August 2020  

700 

 
 
 
 
 
■  Machine Drives – Machine drives end-use ESOs account for 2 of the top 10 ESOs and have total technical potential energy savings by 

2030 of 21.9 ktoe. This is due to low current uptake (22%) and high future uptake (90%-100%) 

Table A17.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Lithuania in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Furnace)  Process Heating 
Process Heating 
Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 
Process Heating 
Process Heating 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans) 

Machine drives 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

10 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Other 
motors) 

Machine drives 

27.1 

23.2 

17.1 

14.8 

14.8 

13.0 

12.3 

11.5 

11.3 

10.4 

38% 

52% 

32% 

51% 

51% 

32% 

11% 

22% 

61% 

22% 

90% 

100% 

90% 

94% 

94% 

80% 

100% 

100% 

90% 

A17.2.4 

Transport 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A17.8 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in heavy goods vehicles, light duty vehicles and private car end-use programmes 

August 2020  

701 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A17.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Lithuania 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

47.7 

16.0 

15.5 

3.0 

1.0 

0.7 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport  0.7 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

0.1 

0.1 

0.0 

4.81 

1.44 

14.96 

7.48 

1.86 

0.47 

0.96 

2.13 

0.25 

11.11 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Heavy goods vehicle end-use programmes form 2 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and 
have the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 85.0 ktoe in of total savings, of which HGVs account for 47.7 
ktoe (57.1%) of that total. 100.0% of that will be economic by 2030. The end-use with the second highest technical potential savings is light 
duty vehicles. They makes up 19.2 TOE/year (22.6%) of the total savings. 3 of 4 programmes are expected to be economic by 2030, 
equating to 16.1 ktoe (18.9% of total). Private cars also have a high technical potential (65.5 ktoe) but only 1 ktoe is believed to be economic 
by 2030. Of the top 10 programmes, 66.5 ktoe is economic by 2030 (78.2%). 

Figure A17.28 presents the top energy efficiency programmes for transport, and due to low technical potential of some programmes, only the 
top 7 programmes by technical potential are included. Most programmes in this sector will be economic by 2030, and this is reflected in the 
cost effectiveness of the top programmes in the transport sector. Gasoline/diesel private cars in passenger transport aside (cost-
effectiveness score of 0.0), all programmes have a cost effectiveness score greater than or equal to 2.5, with 4 out of those 6 scoring above 

August 2020  

702 

 
 
 
 
 
4.0. All programmes have an exceptionally high likelihood of success (3.8-4.5), owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the 
programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures.  

Figure A17.28  Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Lithuania in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A17.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Heavy Goods Vehicles - The 5 ESOs attaining to private cars have the largest technical energy savings (47.0 ktoe). Of those, there is a 
positive correlation between level of improved vehicle efficiency and technical potential energy savings. This is a pattern which can be 
observed throughout the ESOs, and it not confined to the HGV end use programmes. High technical potential energy savings can be 
attributed to low current uptake (4%) as uptake is not expected to be particularly high by 2030 (40%).  

■  Light Duty Vehicle. The 3 LDV ESOs presents a total technical saving potential of 18.9 ktoe. This is due to a sizeable change in uptake 

between 2020 and 2030, with a predicted increase of 63%. 

August 2020  

703 

 
 
 
 
 
■  Private Cars – The 2 private car end-use ESO programmes account for 10.8 ktoe, and gains are attributed to low current uptake (1%) 

and future uptake (12%).  

Table A17.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Lithuania in 2030 

Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  12.4 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  11.5 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  9.6 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

8.3 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  7.7 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

6.3 

5.9 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (15%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  5.8 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

4.7 

4.5 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

4% 

4% 

4% 

7% 

4% 

1% 

7% 

4% 

7% 

1% 

40% 

40% 

40% 

70% 

40% 

12% 

70% 

40% 

70% 

12% 

August 2020  

704 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A17.3 Recommendations 

A17.3.1 

Policy Review  

Lithuania’s main energy efficiency improvement objectives, set out in its draft NECP4 and National Energy Independence Strategy5, are to 
ensure that primary and final energy intensity are 1.5 times lower in 2030 than in 2018 and 2.4 times lower in 2050 than in 2018. The 
Commission recommends that Lithuania should:  

1.  Define these objectives in terms of absolute primary and final energy consumption;  
2.  Increase its ambition towards reducing final and primary energy consumption in 2030.  

The policies and measures (PAM) set out by Lithuania in the draft NECP, and earlier the NEEAP6 cover the residential, industrial and 
transport sectors, as well as public buildings. They are listed below along with their 2030 energy savings targets and, if they are listed in 
the Odyssee–Mure database of successful energy efficiency measures, their start date:  

4.  Renovation of 5000 apartment buildings (6 TWh through a 20% reduction in heating/cooling costs) – ongoing since 2005  
5.  Renovation of 330,000 m2 of public buildings (2 TWh) – ongoing since 2014  
6.  Energy audits in industry to identify energy efficiency improvements (2 TWh)   
7.  Agreements with energy suppliers to educate consumers (5 TWh)  
8.  Agreements with energy companies to implement energy saving measures (6 TWh) – ongoing since 2011  
9.  Support for energy efficiency in high intensity industry (5 TWh)  
10. Replacement of boilers in households (5.5 TWh)  
11. Taxes on fuel7 (5.4 TWh)  

The Commission recommends that Lithuania should:  

o  Consider putting in place additional energy efficiency measures for the transport sector;  
o  Provide more information on PAM, by indicating which ones will be continued after 2020, what new policies will be introduced after 

2020 and what impacts they will have;  

o  Propose more ambitious PAM that would deliver additional energy savings in order to reach the Union's 2030 energy efficiency target.  

During the course of 2019, the Ministry of Energy has made plans to accelerate the renovation of public buildings8, and the Environmental 
Project Management Agency has issued a call for applications to receive financial support for the replacement of old inefficient biomass 
boilers and installation of PV systems in households9.  Measures to improve energy efficiency by reorganising the national transport system 
and encouraging the uptake of electric vehicles are set out in the National Air Pollution Reduction Plan10 rather than the draft NECP.  They 
include:  

August 2020  

705 

 
 
 
 
Developing and promoting eco-driving skills (implementation period: 2019–2030);  

Renewal of urban and suburban public transport fleets. Financial incentives for municipalities to purchase public transport vehicles powered 

by electricity, natural gas and/ or hydrogen (implementation period: 2021-2029);  

Railway electrification (implementation period: 2022 – 2026);  

Reducing the attractiveness of polluting vehicles in urban areas. Financial incentives for sustainable mobility measures in major cities, which 

decide to implement diesel traffic restraint systems in their municipal areas or part thereof (implementation period: 2021-2029).  

A17.3.2 

Policy and Measures Analysis  

Lithuania has 15 policies and measures related to energy efficiency.  

The residential sector has several implemented policies. One of these is the renovation of multi-family apartments at a rate of 500 building 
per year (5,000 by 2030). At least four residential policies are regulatory and therefore generally strong. The fiscal measures have poor 
refinancing ability.  

In the industrial sector there are two measures – energy audits and support for high energy intensive industries. Energy audits has been 
noted as planned and support for energy intensive industries is already adopted. The combined impact of these two policies is expected to 
be 7 TWh of energy savings. The industrial sector policy is neither particularly weak nor strong in its scope and implementation status and 
could be more ambitious.  

There are no specific commercial policies, and cross-sectoral measures are very limited in their capacity to address the commercial sector.   

There is one transport policy, which is fiscal, recorded for Lithuania. The implementation status of this policy isn’t clear, and the transport 
sector is lacking in energy efficiency measures.   

Cross-sector measures in Lithuania are in general easily re-financed and accepted by their relevant stakeholders. They perform less well in 
their links to other measures and support of positive side effects.  

A17.3.3 

Recommendations  

Lithuania’s top 10 ESOs are within the residential, industrial and commercial sectors, with commercial being the majority sector.   

Although it has implemented policies to renovate buildings (particularly multi-family apartments and public buildings) in the residential and 
commercial sectors, recent reviews suggest Lithuania is unlikely to meet its 2020 goals. It should therefore consider measures that 
implement the below opportunities with greatest technical potential e.g. thermal curtains for windows, wastewater heat recovery and wall 
insulation. The largest cost-effective residential end uses for 2030 are hot water heating and lighting, and these should be targeted in more 
ambitious policies and measures for the sector.  

August 2020  

706 

 
 
 
Table A17.10 

Top 10 ESOs in Lithuania 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Industrial 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Furnace) 

Process Heating 

27.1 

Residential  Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Hot water heating  26.8 

Residential 

Thermal Curtains 

Space heating 

23.2 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

23.2 

Residential  Wall Insulation 

Residential  Air Infiltration 

Space heating, 
Cooling 

Space heating, 
Cooling 

21.4 

19.3 

Commercial 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Space Heating 

19.2 

Residential  Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Space heating 

18.7 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

17.1 

10 

Residential  Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, 
Space heating 

16.1 

38% 

5% 

15% 

52% 

20% 

20% 

3% 

20% 

32% 

0% 

100% 

90% 

38% 

100% 

53% 

63% 

70% 

100% 

53% 

90% 

August 2020  

707 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A17.11 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Lithuania 

Country rank  Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential by 2030 (ktoe)  CCE (EUR cents/kWh) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport  Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles  47.7 

Industrial  Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

Industrial  Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Machine drives 

Industrial  Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

43.4 

37.1 

35.4 

30.8 

25.2 

25.2 

24.3 

23.8 

10 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  23.3 

4.81 

0.23 

3.88 

3.85 

1.39 

0.27 

21.86 

8.32 

8.28 

27.01 

Although it has implemented policies to support energy efficiency in highly energy intensive industries, in the industrial sector, Lithuania 
should plan and implement measures to incentivise energy efficiency within standard energy intensive industries. Controls measures 
such as advanced heating and process control and flue gas monitoring are some of the top opportunities in the industrial sector.   

Although the commission suggested that Lithuania should focus detailing on policies and measures in the transport sector, the model 
identified the largest opportunities in the residential, industrial and commercial sectors.   

To meet its 2030 energy efficiency targets, Lithuania should:  

1.  Plan and implement residential sector measures focussed on reducing energy consumption for space heating and hot water e.g. 

thermal curtains for windows  

2.  Implement policies to specifically target the commercial sector that promote air-source heat pumps 

3.  Include industrial sector policies to address process heating provided by natural gas in petroleum refineries e.g. support for heat 

recovery.  

August 2020  

708 

 
 
 
 
Annex 18  Luxembourg 

A18.1 Summary 

Table A18.1 

Summary of modelling results for Luxembourg 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

578 

534 

576 

2,237 

3,924 

 193  

 137  

 141  

 411  

 883  

 132  

 88  

 135  

 411  

 766  

33% 

26% 

25% 

18% 

23% 

23% 

17% 

23% 

18% 

20% 

335 

August 2020  

709 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A18.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A18.1 provides breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under space heating (124 ktoe).   

Figure A18.1 

Technical energy savings over timeframe for Luxembourg based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

710 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A18.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of (124 ktoe). 

Figure A18.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Luxembourg based on residential sub-sectors 

Figure A18.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Space 
heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use fall under space heating (46 
ktoe).  

August 2020  

711 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A18.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Luxembourg based residential energy end uses  

Figure A18.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of (35 ktoe). 

August 2020  

712 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A18.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Luxembourg based on residential sub-sectors  

Figure A18.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 384.3 ktoe (33% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 445.3 ktoe (23% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 577.7 ktoe.    

August 2020  

713 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A18.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Luxembourg  

The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Luxembourg’s final energy consumption by 214.81 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A18.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (55.24%) and RPP (32.35%) 
contain the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

714 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A18.6 

Primary energy impacts for Luxembourg based on technical potential for residential sector 

A18.1.3 

Commercial 

Figure A18.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under space heating (79 ktoe). 

August 2020  

715 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A18.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Luxembourg based on commercial energy end uses 

Figure A18.8 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale & retail trade 
contains the highest potential over time, followed by private and public offices. In 2030, wholesale & retail trade could have potential energy 
savings of 49 ktoe and private and public offices (34 ktoe). 

August 2020  

716 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A18.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe in Luxembourg based on commercial sub-sectors  

Figure A18.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Space 
heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use come from space heating (39 
ktoe). 

August 2020  

717 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A18.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Luxembourg based on commercial energy end uses  

Figure A18.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale & 
retail trade contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, wholesale & retail trade will provide potential energy savings of 34 ktoe. 

August 2020  

718 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A18.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Luxembourg based on commercial sub-sectors  

August 2020  

719 

 
 
 
 
Figure A18.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 396.5 ktoe (26% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 445.5 ktoe (17 % 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 533.8 ktoe. 

Figure A18.11  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Luxembourg  

August 2020  

720 

 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Luxembourg’s final energy consumption by 137.3 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A18.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (56.93%) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

Figure A18.12  Primary energy impacts for Luxembourg based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

721 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A18.1.4 

Industrial 

Figure A18.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under process heating (92 ktoe).   

Figure A18.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Luxembourg based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A18.14 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. The iron and steel industry 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, iron and steel could have potential energy savings of 59 ktoe. 

August 2020  

722 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A18.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Luxembourg based on industrial sub-sectors 

Figure A18.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use fall under process 
heating (92 ktoe).  

August 2020  

723 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A18.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Luxembourg based on industrial energy end uses  

Figure A18.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. The iron and 
steel industry contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, iron and steel could provide potential energy savings of 56 ktoe. 

August 2020  

724 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A18.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Luxembourg based on industrial sub-sectors  

Figure A18.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 434 ktoe (25% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 441 ktoe (23% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 576 ktoe.   

August 2020  

725 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A18.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Luxembourg  

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Luxembourg’s final energy consumption by 141 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A18.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity 66% contains the highest 
technical potential. 

August 2020  

726 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A18.18  Primary energy impacts for Luxembourg based on technical potential for industrial sector 

A18.1.5 

Transport  

Figure A18.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars and heavy goods 
vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use fall under private cars (170.45 
ktoe) and heavy goods vehicles (170.46 ktoe). 

August 2020  

727 

 
 
 
 
Figure A18.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Luxembourg based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A18.20 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger transport and 
freight transport contain similar levels of energy saving potential over time. In 2030, passenger transport could have potential energy savings 
of 229.20 ktoe, while freight transport (181.70 ktoe). 

August 2020  

728 

 
 
 
 
Figure A18.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Luxembourg based on transport sub-sectors  

Figure A18.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Private cars and heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end 
use fall under private cars (170.45 ktoe) and heavy goods vehicles (170.46 ktoe). 

August 2020  

729 

 
 
 
 
Figure A18.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Luxembourg based on transport energy end uses  

Figure A18.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport and freight transport contain similar levels of energy saving potential over time. In 2030, passenger transport could have potential 
energy savings of 229.20 ktoe, while freight transport could save 181.70 ktoe. 

August 2020  

730 

 
 
 
 
Figure A18.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Luxembourg based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A18.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1,826.15 ktoe (18% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1,826.15 ktoe 
(18% energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 2,237.05 ktoe.    

August 2020  

731 

 
 
 
 
Figure A18.23  Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Luxembourg  

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Luxembourg’s final energy consumption by 410.90 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A18.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (98.12%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

732 

 
 
 
 
Figure A18.24  Primary energy impacts for Luxembourg based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

733 

 
 
 
 
A18.2 Discussion 

A18.2.1 

Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A18.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating, and hot water heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A18.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Luxembourg 

Programme Name 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

28.3 

26.3 

24.8 

17.3 

15.5 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  13.4 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Space heating 

7.2 

2.9 

2.2 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 
49.3 

4.33 
4.32 
4.32 
10.82 
4.28 
10.72 
13.29 
13.25 
7.52 
3.59 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

The largest savings can be found in addressing space heating programmes which lead to technical energy savings of 123.4 ktoe by 2030. Of 
this economic potential is evaluated to be 45.8 ktoe or 24.5% as a proportion of the top ten. Hot water heating programmes make up the 
other half of the top 10 technical programmes, presenting 63.8 ktoe of savings by 2030. However only 2.9 ktoe of hot water heating 
programmes are evaluated as being economic saving potential.  

August 2020  

734 

 
 
 
The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the residential sector are shown in Figure A18.25 and all have a high likelihood to succeed 
owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of acceptance with stakeholders based on 
previous measures (scores between 3.3 and 4.5). There are two lighting-based programmes shown in Figure A18.25 because of their cost 
effectiveness. The programme with the lowest likelihood of success among the top ten were space heating programmes with a score of 3.3. 
The programmes with the highest likelihood of success with a score of 4.5 are lighting programmes in single family and multifamily homes. 

Lighting measures have the highest cost effectiveness score and are significantly cheaper (CCE of 0.43-0.61 cent/kWh) to implement than 
other programmes. Hot water heating programme are the least cost-effective, with CCEs of 11 cent/kWh. 

Figure A18.25  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Luxembourg in 2030 

August 2020  

735 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A18.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating and hot water heating. The building of Net-Zero-Ready Homes is an ESO which applies to both space heating and hot 
water heating energy end-uses. The current uptake of the measure Is low (4%) and has a high target of 51% which makes this the top 
ESO for the sector with a technical potential of 29.7 ktoe by 2030.  

■  Space heating. There are four specific ESOs which focus on space heating energy end-use. Together they present 38.7 ktoe technical 

energy savings by 2030.  

■  Multiple end-use.  Energy-efficient homes (20% above code) are ESOs related to multiple energy end use (space heating, hot water 

heating and cooling) with a technical saving potential totalling 13.1 ktoe by 2030 owing to the very low current uptake of the ESO (4%).  

■  Space heating and cooling. 3 ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within space heating and space cooling. The 

largest of which is the uptake of wall insulation. In total the technical energy saving potential for ESOs within these end-uses is 32.6 ktoe.  

Table A18.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Luxembourg in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Thermal Curtains 
Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code) 

Space heating 
Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling 

Wall Insulation 

Air Infiltration 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Condensing Gas Boilers 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

10 

Early Furnace Replacement - 70% AFUE - 
90% AFUE Furnace 

A18.2.2 

Commercial 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating 

Space heating 

Hot water heating 

Space heating 

29.7 

13.4 
13.1 

12.4 

11.0 

9.2 

8.9 

8.7 

7.6 

7.6 

4% 

15% 

4% 

18% 

18% 

18% 

18% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

51% 

55% 

44% 

51% 

61% 

51% 

51% 

54% 

37% 

100% 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A18.4. The technical 
energy saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating, lighting and water heating quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

736 

 
 
 
Table A18.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Luxembourg 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - RPP - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

Private and Public Offices - RPP - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Other   - Space Heating 

9.1 

9.0 

8.7 

7.0 

6.3 

4.9 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Space Heating  4.6 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating  4.2 

Private and Public Offices - Other   - Space Heating 

3.8 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Water Heating  3.4 

2.66 

2.94 

2.66 

6.89 

6.89 

2.66 

24.16 

24.15 

6.89 

99.04 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Of the top 10 programmes for energy efficiency within the commercial sector the top technical energy saving can be found in space heating 
(48.6 ktoe by 2030). 24.1 ktoe of this 48.6 ktoe 49.6%) is considered economic saving potential, which stems from the programmes for 
wholesale & retail sub-sector. Lighting energy end-use also presents economic energy saving potential with 9 ktoe by 2030. The majority of 
technical energy savings can be found in wholesale & retail trade subsector with 39.7 ktoe by 2030.  

August 2020  

737 

 
 
 
The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the commercial sector are shown in Figure A18.26. All have a high likelihood to succeed 
owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of acceptance with stakeholders based on 
previous measures (range is 3.3 – 4.5). Only six of the ten programmes in Table A18.4 are included in Figure A18.26; three space heating 
programmes and Wholesale & Retail water heating have been replaced by three lighting programmes and Offices water heating. Lighting 
programmes have the highest likelihood of success with a score of 4.5, whereas space heating programmes have the lowest likelihood of 
success with scores within the top ten of 3.3-3.5.  

The most cost-effective programmes from the top 10 are the Wholesale & Retail space heating programmes, with CCEs of 2.7 – 
2.9 cent/kWh. The least cost-effective programmes among the top ten are space heating in Offices (CCE of 6.9 cent/kWh). The lighting 
programmes are also deemed to be economic with CCE’s ranging between 2.9 – 3.2 cent/kWh. 

Figure A18.26  Top energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Luxembourg in 2030 

August 2020  

738 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A18.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating. The top ESO from the top 10 is focussed on space heating energy end-use. Installation of heat pumps, presents 

Luxembourg with 22.6 ktoe of energy savings by 2030. This is because the current uptake was analysed to be 14% and future uptake 
reaching nearly 80%.  

■  Space heating and water heating / Multiple. 4 ESOs, have impacts toward both the space heating and water heating energy end-uses. 
The ESOs are a combination of controls, building recommissioning and new builds. Energy savings from these ESOs total 42.7 ktoe of 
which 18.6 ktoe is from the construction of new more energy efficient buildings. Building recommissioning activities and construction of 
new builds have very low current uptakes (2% in 2020) and go somewhat in explaining the high technical potential for this ESO. Adaptive 
thermostats also save space cooling energy, save 3.8 ktoe by 2030. 

■  Lighting. 2 ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within lighting. Both lighting measures focus on better controls and 
lead to energy savings of 6.7 ktoe within this energy end-use. This is because of the high uptake of controls within the sector (100%) by 
2030.  

Table A18.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Luxembourg in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps 

Space Heating 

Faucet Aerators 
Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Water Heating 
Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Space Heating, Water Heating, Space 
Cooling 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

10 

Energy Recovery Ventilation / Heat Recovery 
Ventilation 

August 2020  

Lighting 

Lighting 

Space Cooling 

22.6 

15.8 
14.9 

11.4 

9.3 

7.1 

4.5 

3.4 

3.3 

2.4 

14% 

10% 

2% 

2% 

8% 

2% 

8% 

8% 

8% 

15% 

80% 

100% 

100% 

35% 

100% 

35% 

74% 

100% 

100% 

86% 

739 

 
 
 
A18.2.3 

Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A18.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within process heating and machine drives quantified as follows: 

Table A18.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Luxembourg 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating  24.6 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating  13.1 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

10.7 

Iron and Steel - Electricity - Machine drives 

Iron and Steel - Electricity - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Electricity - Machine 
drives 

Iron and Steel - Coal - Process Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - 
Process Heating 

9.9 

9.6 

8.5 

5.6 

5.4 

4.0 

3.6 

0.29 

0.29 

0.29 

1.65 

0.46 

1.65 

0.46 

1.65 

0.29 

0.28 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating programmes present the most technical and economic energy savings within the industrial sector (71.3 ktoe) as they 
represent 7 of the top 10 programmes shown in Table A18.6. Of the savings within process heating, iron & steel sub-sector represents 48.2 
ktoe of economic energy savings by 2030. Machine drives programmes provides 23.8 ktoe of technical and economic energy saving 
potential.  

As can be seen from Figure A18.27 there is one additional energy end-use being represented, lighting which replaces a process heating 
based programme as seen in Table A18.6. All of programmes shown in Figure A18.27 have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 4 
– 4.5), owing to high political feasibility and low complexity of ESOs within the programme. Lighting based programmes have the highest 
chance to succeed for Figure A18.27 as they a score of 4.5. Electricity based machine drives programmes have a slightly higher likelihood to 
succeed than process heating based programmes owing to the technical complexity of the programmes being evaluated. 

August 2020  

740 

 
 
 
All technical programmes analysed in Figure A18.27 are considered economic, however of the top energy efficiency programmes the most 
cost effective programmes is lighting based. The CCE for the most cost-effective programmes are 0.002 cents/kWh. The least cost-effective 
programmes shown in Figure A18.27 is the machine drives-based programmes with scores of 1.65 cent/kWh. 7 process heating 
programmes have a cost-effectiveness score of 4.1, with a CCE score of 0.3 cent/kWh. However, all these programmes are still considered 
as economic as they are significantly below the retail fuel tariff. 

Figure A18.27  Top energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Luxembourg in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A18.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

August 2020  

741 

 
 
 
 
 
 
■  Process Heating.  8 of the top 10 ESOs reflect energy saving in process heating end-use. This is largely because of the high energy 
consumption of this end-use within the sector. The main ESOs main are those surrounding boiler and furnace energy consumption 
reduction. The top ESOs are flue gas monitoring for both furnaces and boilers with an energy saving potential of 12.1 ktoe by 2030. Total 
energy savings from process heating measures equal 44.2 ktoe by 2030, which come about through better controls, heat recovery and 
maintenance.  

■  Machine Drives. 8. 7ktoe energy savings can be found from implementing adjustable speed drives and premium efficiency control.  

Table A18.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector for Luxembourg in 2030 

Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

 Process heating 

Boiler load management 

 Process heating 

Boiler right sizing 

 Process heating 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

 Process heating 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

 Process heating 

Advanced Heating and Process 
Control (Furnace) 

Premium efficiency control, with 
ASD (Fans) 

 Process heating 

 Machine drives 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

 Process heating 

Premium Efficiency Control with 
ASDs (Other motors) 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery 
(Furnace) 

 Machine drives 

 Process heating 

7.1 

6.9 

6.9 

5.0 

5.0 

5.0 

4.7 

4.3 

4.1 

4.1 

51% 

50% 

50% 

60% 

31% 

37% 

22% 

31% 

22% 

11% 

August 2020  

100% 

94% 

94% 

100% 

89% 

90% 

100% 

80% 

89% 

79% 

742 

 
 
 
A18.2.4 

Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A18.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes for heavy goods vehicles, private cars, and light duty vehicles, quantified as follows: 

Table A18.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Luxembourg 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

169.2 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

169.0 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

39.3 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport  19.0 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

11.2 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

1.4 

1.3 

0.2 

0.2 

0.1 

4.81 
2.07 

0.29 

0.05 

0.98 

0.25 

0.03 

0.41 

0.01 

1.39 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The most significant end-use is heavy goods vehicles programmes, which presents an economic saving potential of 170.5 ktoe by 
2030.Programmes for private cars total 170.4 ktoe for the transport sector, however only 1.4 ktoe is considered economic and this is for 
electric private cars. 4 of the top 10 programmes focus on light duty vehicles in freight and passenger transport, which total 50.8 ktoe in 
economic energy savings.  

August 2020  

743 

 
 
 
 
 
The top energy efficiency programmes are shown in Figure A18.28. All programmes have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.8 
– 3.9), attributed by good policy measures and the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement as 
seen in Figure A18.28. Heavy goods vehicles have the highest chance to succeed owing to the technical complexity of the programmes 
(score of 3.9). 

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is public road transport programme with a CCE of 0.05 cent/kWh. The least cost-effective 
programme is for private cars, which has a CCE 2.07 cent/kWh. The private cars programme was evaluated as uneconomic as shown in 
Table A18.8. 

Figure A18.28  Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Luxembourg in 2030 

August 2020  

744 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A18.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private cars. The top 3 ESOs are through the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved efficiency). 
The uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 12% with a 100% uptake by 2030 leading to a technical energy saving of 186.3 ktoe by 
2030. Public road transport programmes also are covered within vehicle improvements of 3% ESO. 

■  Heavy Goods Vehicles. 5 ESOs of the top 10, target energy savings in heavy goods vehicles which present technical energy savings of 

167.9 ktoe by 2030. This is as a result of a low future uptake (8%) for the ESOs in this end-use.  

■  Light Duty Vehicles. There are 2 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles. They present a technical saving potential 

totalling 37.8 ktoe by 2030. The current uptake for 2020 is evaluated to be 14% with the uptake being 100% by 2030.  

Table A18.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector for Luxembourg in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars and public 
road transport 
 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (15%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

August 2020  

73.3 

60.6 

52.4 

44.4 

41.2 

34.3 

27.4 

22.2 

20.6 

15.6 

12% 

12% 

12% 

8% 

8% 

8% 

8% 

14% 

8% 

14% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

81% 

81% 

81% 

81% 

100% 

81% 

100% 

745 

 
 
 
A18.3 Recommendations 

A18.3.1 

Policy Review 

In its draft NECP, Luxembourg proposed a reduction of 40%-44% in its final energy consumption for 2030 compared to PRIMES 2007. The 
Commission has assessed this as an adequate target and ambitious enough to contribute towards EU goals. The same reduction target has 
been set for Luxembourg’s primary energy consumption. 

Luxembourg has policies for improving energy efficiency in the building, transport and industrial sectors. 

In the building sector, multiple policies are part of Luxembourg’s Long Term Renovation Strategy for reducing energy demand, including a 
bold energy standard for new buildings in place since 2007, the renovation of existing buildings focusing on high efficiency, and the gradual 
phase out of fossil-fuel heating systems. 

The PRIMe House programme and the Climate Bank provide financial support for sustainable renovation in households. Average heat 
demand is expected to decrease by 72% following the renovation of existing buildings. The rollout of combined heat and power (CHP) in 
multi-dwelling buildings is also expected to contribute towards decreasing energy demand in the country. 

The transport sector is responsible for most of Luxembourg’s energy demand and GHG emissions. In its draft NECP, Luxembourg focuses 
on the provision of incentives for active modes and public transportation and on an adaptation of the taxation on mineral oil products. The 
Commission pointed out to the lack of details regarding this adaptation of taxation. 

Luxembourg’s Sustainable Mobility Strategy (Modu 2.0) was launched in May 2018 with actions to promote the usage of public 
transportation. Changes to the Luxembourg’s subsidy scheme for electric vehicles were implemented in January 2019 and the country is 
currently rolling out charging infrastructure and decentralised energy storage. From January 2020, all public transport will be free in 
Luxembourg. 

The Luxembourgish industry will be engaged through voluntary agreements and supported through knowledge sharing networks with the 
goal of achieving a 12% reduction in energy consumption over 12 years. The use of ISO 50001, energy audits for large companies, energy 
efficiency networks and energy technologies training are also envisaged. 

According to the Commission Staff Working Document, although the measures laid out in Luxembourg’s draft NECP point towards the right 
direction, more detailed timeframes, saving estimates and impacts are needed for properly assessing the level of ambition of the proposed 
measures. 

August 2020  

746 

 
 
 
A18.3.2 

Policy and measure analysis 

There are 3 cross-cutting measures identified in Luxembourg for energy efficiency: the Environmental Fund, the rollout of smart meters, and 
support to R&D in the fields of energy efficiency, smart cities and buildings. The first two measures have been implemented and the latter is 
planned to be implemented until 2023. 

There are 5 energy efficiency measures focused on the buildings sector in Luxembourg’s draft NECP. The refurbishment subsidy scheme 
(PRIMe House and Climate Bank) has already been implemented and the continuation and intensification of regulatory building standards is 
planned to be implemented. The status of the other 3 measures – the modernisation of public buildings, the continuation of buildings 
refurbishment strategy, and the refurbishment of residential and tertiary buildings (including office buildings) – is unclear. There is strong 
coverage of policy within the Luxembourgish building sector. 

There are 3 measures which address industrial energy efficiency: a stronger use of ISO 5001 and mandatory energy audits for non-SMEs, 
the provision of education and training for energy advisors and energy service providers, and the development of a voluntary agreement for 
non-energy-intensive industry sectors. The implementation status for all 3 measures is planned with the latter forecasted to start in 2020.  

The transport sector has only 2 specific measures for energy efficiency: free public transportation in the country implemented in January 
2020 and the planned taxation of mineral oil products. 

From the policies implemented with and before NEEAP 3, Luxembourg’s energy efficiency measures were adjudged to be sufficiently cost-
efficient, with enough potential for market transformation, suitable to overcome barriers and easily accepted by relevant stakeholders. 
However, the financial measures implemented have little financial independence which might compromise the stability of these programmes 
and policies. 

A18.3.3 

Recommendations 

The top 10 programmes for Luxembourg ranked by the technical energy saving potential are shown in Table A18.10. The corresponding top 
ESOs are presented in Table A18.11. The top two energy saving programmes are from the transport sector, focussing on heavy goods 
vehicles and private cars. These two programmes have the largest energy saving potential by some margin when compared against the next 
programme in the residential sector (space heating with natural gas in single family houses) as the difference is over 100 ktoe. The third and 
fourth top programmes are also from the transport and residential sectors with a focus on natural gas space heating in multi-family 
apartments and light duty vehicles, respectively. Among the top 5 programmes, 3 are evaluated as being uneconomic: reducing fuel 
consumption in private cars and reducing natural gas consumption for space heating in both single and multi-family houses. Among the top 
10 programmes listed in Table A18.10, only one focuses on the industrial sector regarding waste process heat in the iron and steel sub-
sector. 

August 2020  

747 

 
 
 
Existing and planned measures in Luxembourg’s NECP focus on modal shifts and taxation in the transport sector. These measures could be 
improved to cover ESOs related to improved vehicle energy efficiency of private cars and heavy-duty vehicles to address additional saving 
potentials as seen in Table A18.11. In the buildings sector, current measures focus on refurbishment, tax incentives and implementation 
rigorous standards in the buildings sector. To cover ESOs from Table A18.11 these measures could cover the promotion of net-zero energy 
homes and thermal curtains. 

Table A18.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Luxembourg 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical 
potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport  Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Transport  Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Transport  Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Industrial 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

169.2 

169.0 

49.3 

39.3 

28.3 

26.3 

24.8 

24.6 

Transport  Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport  19.0 

10 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

17.3 

Table A18.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Luxembourg by 2030 

0.31 

2.07 

4.33 

0.29 

4.32 

4.32 

10.82 

0.29 

0.05 

4.28 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (3%) 

 Private cars,  Public road 
transport 

1 

2 

August 2020  

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

73.3 

60.6 

12% 

12% 

100% 

100% 

748 

 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (4%) 

 Private cars 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Residential  Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space 
heating 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Commercial 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Space Heating 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light Duty Vehicles 

To fulfil its 2030 energy efficiency target Luxembourg should: 

52.4 

44.4 

41.2 

34.3 

29.7 

27.4 

22.6 

22.2 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

12% 

100% 

8% 

8% 

8% 

4% 

8% 

14% 

14% 

81% 

81% 

81% 

51% 

100% 

81% 

100% 

1. Refine policy measures for the transport sector focusing on improved vehicle performance in private cars and HDVs. 

2. Increase the ambition of policies focussing on the renovation of the building sector and building of net zero ready buildings. 

3. Ensure sufficient focus on the reduction of waste heat in industrial sectors, particularly in the iron and steel sub-sector. 

August 2020  

749 

 
 
 
Annex 19  Malta 

A19.1 Summary 

Table A19.1 

Summary of modelling results for Malta 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

107 

144 

45 

141 

436 

 24  

 31  

 14  

 7  

 76  

 7  

 20  

 14  

 1  

 41  

22% 

22% 

31% 

5% 

17% 

6% 

14% 

31% 

0% 

9% 

50 

August 2020  

750 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A19.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A19.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating contains the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under hot water heating (16 ktoe).   

Figure A19.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on residential energy end uses 

Figure A19.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 19.4 ktoe. 

August 2020  

751 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

752 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Appliances, space heating and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end 
use are appliances (3.3  ktoe) and space heating (2 ktoe). 

Figure A19.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

753 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 5.9 ktoe. 

Figure A19.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

754 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 82.8 ktoe (22% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 100.1 ktoe (6% 
energy savings BAU), and actual BAU is 106.7 ktoe. 

Figure A19.5 

  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Malta 

The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Malta’s final energy consumption by 25.82 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

755 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (88.50%) and RPP (11.50%) 
contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A19.6 

Primary energy impacts for Malta based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

756 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A19.1.3 

Commercial 

Figure A19.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Refrigeration, lighting and 
space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the three highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (11 
ktoe), lighting (9 ktoe) and water heating (7 ktoe). 

Figure A19.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

757 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.8 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale, hotels & 
restaurants and retail trade contain the highest potential over time, followed by private and public offices. In 2030, private and public offices 
could have potential energy savings of 11 ktoe, followed by wholesale and retail trade 9 ktoe and hotels & restaurants 8 ktoe. 

Figure A19.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

758 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Water heating and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are water 
heating (7 ktoe) and lighting (9 ktoe). 

Figure A19.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

759 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale, 
hotels & restaurants and retail trade contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, wholesale and retail trade will provide potential energy 
savings of 5 ktoe, followed by hotels & restaurants 6 ktoe and private and public offices 6 ktoe. 

Figure A19.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

760 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 112.9 ktoe (22% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 124 ktoe (14% 
energy savings against BAU), and actual BAU is 144.2 ktoe. 

Figure A19.11 

 Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Malta 

August 2020  

761 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Malta’s final energy consumption by 31.2 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A19.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (91.43%) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

Figure A19.12  Primary energy impacts for Malta based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

762 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A19.1.4 

Industrial 

Figure A19.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Machine drives contain the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under machine drives (8 ktoe).  

Figure A19.13 

 Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

763 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.14 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Manufacturers contain the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, manufacturers could have potential energy savings of 8 ktoe. 

Figure A19.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

764 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Machine drives and process heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are machine drives (8 ktoe) and process heating (3 ktoe). 

Figure A19.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

765 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Manufacturers 
contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, manufacturers could provide potential energy savings of 8 ktoe. 

Figure A19.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

766 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 31 ktoe (31% drop against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 31 ktoe (31% drop against 
BAU), and actual BAU is 45 ktoe. 

Figure A19.17  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Malta 

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Malta’s final energy consumption by 14 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

767 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (95%) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

Figure A19.18  Primary energy impacts for Malta based on technical potential for industrial sector 

August 2020  

768 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A19.1.5 

Transport  

Figure A19.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use are private cars (4.97 ktoe). 

Figure A19.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

769 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.20 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, passenger transport could have potential energy savings of 6.02 ktoe. 

Figure A19.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

770 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Light duty vehicles and public road transport contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end 
use are light duty vehicles (0.54 ktoe) and public road transport (0.51 ktoe). 

Figure A19.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

771 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, passenger transport could have potential energy savings of 1.18 ktoe. 

Figure A19.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Malta based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

772 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 133 ktoe, economic energy consumption scenario is 139.36 ktoe, and actual BAU is 140.6 ktoe.  

Figure A19.23 

  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Malta 

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Malta’s final energy consumption by 6.86 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

773 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (90.99%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

Figure A19.24  Primary energy impacts for Malta based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

774 

 
 
 
 
A19.2 Discussion 

A19.2.1 

Residential    

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A19.2 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in process heating and machine drives end-use programmes 

Table A19.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Malta 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 
Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 
Single family houses - Electricity - Appliances 

7.9 

4.7 

3.3 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating  1.9 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Cooling 

Single family houses - Electricity - Lighting 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Appliances 

Single family houses - Electricity - Space heating 

1.1 

1.0 

0.9 

0.9 

0.7 

0.6 

11.48 
17.88 
3.44 
15.46 
22.06 
10.91 
1.02 
6.61 
12.76 
4.71 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Hot water heating end-use programmes account for 4 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes, and have the highest savings of 
any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 23.0 ktoe in of total savings, of which hot water heating accounts for 15.5 ktoe (67.4%) of 
that total. However, only 7.9 ktoe, or 34.4%, will be economic by 2030. The end-use with the second highest potential technical saving is 
appliances programmes. They makes up 4.1 ktoe (17.8%) of the total savings, and 3.3 ktoe (14.4%) is predicicted to be economic by 2030. 
In total, six out of ten programmes are predicted to be economic by 2030, a total of 14.6 ktoe (63.5% of total).  

August 2020  

775 

 
 
 
Figure A19.25 shows the top technical energy efficiency programmes. All programmes have a high likelihood of success, (3.2-4.5), owing to 
the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. 
Seven out of the top ten programmes by technical potential appear in Figure A19.25. Of those present in both Table A19.2 and Figure 
A19.25, lighting in single family houses has the highest cost effectiveness score, due to a CCE of 1.0 cent/kWh. 

Figure A19.25  Top energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Malta in 2030 

August 2020  

776 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A19.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Hot Water Heating. Hot water heating ESOs make up 6 of the top 10 in the residential sector, and present total technical potential 
energy savings of 12.4 ktoe by 2030. These increases are largely due to increases in uptake of greater than 75%, although these 
increases are less for active solar water heating systems and wastewater heat recovery systems, which exhibit increases of 33 – 40%. 
■  Appliances. Appliances ESOs make up 3 of the top 10 in the residential sector, and present total technical potential energy savings of 

3.4 ktoe by 2030. This is due to high increases in uptake, with current uptake between 32 – 25% and future uptake between 95 – 100%. 

Table A19.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Malta in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Water Heater Replacement 

End-use category 

 Hot water heating 

 Hot water heating 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

 Hot water heating 

High-Efficiency Gas Clothes Dryers 

 Appliances 

Heat Pump Water Heater  

 Hot water heating 

Freezer Recycling 

Refrigerator Recycling 

 Appliances 

 Appliances 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

 Hot water heating 

Residential Lighting Efficiency from Incand. 

 Lighting 

10 

DHW Tank Insulation 

 Hot water heating 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

5.1 

3.9 

2.5 

1.2 

1.1 

1.1 

1.1 

0.8 

0.8 

0.7 

10% 

9% 

9% 

35% 

9% 

32% 

32% 

9% 

94% 

9% 

100% 

86% 

49% 

95% 

86% 

100% 

100% 

42% 

100% 

86% 

August 2020  

777 

 
 
 
A19.2.2 

Commercial 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A19.4 for the commercial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in space heating and lighting end-use programmes  

Table A19.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Malta 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 
Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Water Heating 

Private and Public Offices - RPP - Space Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - RPP - Space Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Lighting 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Space Heating 

3.6 

3.3 

3.0 

2.6 

1.8 

1.6 

1.4 

1.3 

1.3 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - IT & Multimedia  1.3 

4.82 
5.22 
40.21 
1.60 
11.25 
39.26 
4.14 
5.15 
40.22 
18.61 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Lighting programmes form 3 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and has the highest 
savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 21.3 ktoe in of total savings, of which lighting accounts for 8.3 ktoe (38.9%). Of 
these, all lighting programmes are predicted to be economic by 2030. The end-use with the second highest potential technical saving is 
space heating, making up 9.2 ktoe (36.7%) of the total savings. However, only 1.4 ktoe is expected to be economic by 2030. In total, 12.3 
ktoe is expected to be economic by 2030, 57.7% of the total for the top 10 technical potential programmes.  

August 2020  

778 

 
 
 
Figure A19.26 shows the top 10 energy efficiency programmes, and of the top 10 technical energy efficiency programmes, only electric 
space heating in wholesale & retail trade does not feature, due to low technical potential and cost-effectiveness. That programme is replaced 
by IT & Multimedia in Wholesale & Retail. 

All programmes have an exceptionally high likelihood of success (3.8 – 5.0), owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the 
programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. Space heating programmes are collected at the bottom 
end of the scale, and lighting programmes have the highest likelihoods. When it comes to cost effectiveness, the programme for electricity 
hot water heating in Hotels and Restaurants has the lowest CCE by a significant margin (1.6 vs second-place 4.1 cent/kWh). Electricity 
space heating Hotels & Restaurants and Private and Public Offices are twice as expensive as the next-most expensive, with 39.3 and 40.2 
cent/kWh, respectively. 

Figure A19.26  Top energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Malta in 2030 

August 2020  

779 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A19.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Lighting. Lighting end-use programmes make up 2 of the top 10 ESOs for the commercial sector in Malta in 2030, totalling 7.3 ktoe 

technical potential energy savings. This is due to low current uptake (8%) and high future uptake (100%). 

■  Space Heating and Hot Water Heating. Space heating and hot water heating ESOs make up 4 of the top 10 end-uses, and total 5.8 

ktoe technical potential energy savings by 2030. This is due to varying degrees of future uptake, although all cases are above 33%, with 
advanced BAS/controllers and building recommissioning (enhanced) having an increase in uptake greater than 90%. 

■  Space Heating. Space heating ESOs make up 2 of the top 10, with savings by 2030 totalling 3.1 ktoe due to low current and high future 

uptake.  

Table A19.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Malta in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 
Faucet Aerators 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Commercial Door Air Infiltration Heat 
Pump Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Computer Power Management 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

End-use category 

Lighting 
Lighting 
Water Heating 
Space Heating, Water 
Heating 
Space Heating 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating 
Space Heating 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating 
IT & Multimedia 
Space Heating, Water 
Heating 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

3.7 

3.6 
2.7 

2.0 

1.8 

1.5 

1.3 

1.3 

1.1 

1.0 

8% 

8% 

9% 

4% 

22% 

8% 

9% 

4% 

19% 

4% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

37% 

89% 

100% 

100% 

37% 

100% 

100% 

August 2020  

780 

 
 
 
A19.2.3 

Industrial 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A19.6 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in machine drives and process heating end-use programmes 

Table A19.6 

Top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Malta in 2030 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Machinery - Electricity - Machine drives 

Other Industry - RPP - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - Electricity - Machine drives 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Electricity - Machine 
drives 

Other Industry - Electricity - Compressed System 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Electricity - Machine drives 

Machinery - RPP - Process Heating 

Machinery - Electricity - Process Heating 

4.7 

1.6 

1.0 

0.9 

0.8 

0.6 

0.5 

0.5 

0.4 

0.4 

1.77 
2.14 
0.31 
0.49 

2.14 

1.66 

1.51 

1.66 

0.36 

0.58 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Machine drives form 5 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and have the highest savings of 
any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 11.4 ktoe in of total savings, of which machine drives accounts for 8.2 ktoe. Of that, 100% 
is predicted to be economic by 2030, as are all other end-uses. The end-use with the second highest potential technical saving is process 
heating, making up 2.7 ktoe (23.7%) of the total savings.  

Of those featured in the top 10 technical energy efficiency programmes, process heating in the machinery sub-sector is not featured in 
Figure A19.27. Instead a lighting based programme takes its place as it has the highest likelihood of success with a score of 4.3.In Figure 
A19.27 there is also a clear difference in the cost effectiveness of lighting programmes (5) and machine drives programmes (0.0 – 1.1). 

August 2020  

781 

 
 
 
Process heating and machine drives account for 8 out of the top 10 energy efficiency programmes, and while electricity powered machine 
drives in other industries provides the highest level of technical potential, (4.7 ktoe), more cost-effective opportunities exist in the process 
heating end-use programmes. All programmes have a high likelihood of success (3.7 – 4.3), owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made 
up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. 

Figure A19.27  Top energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Malta in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A19.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories:  

August 2020  

782 

 
 
 
 
 
 
■  Machine Drives. Machine drive end-use ESOs make up 9 of the top 10 ESOs for the industrial sector, a total of 7.5 ktoe in technical 
potential energy savings by 2030. This is due to a mixture of low current uptake and high future uptake, with the increase in uptake 
increasing by between 50% - 80% for all ESOs. 

■  Process Heating. Process heating only makes up 1 of the top 10 ESOs, with advanced heating and process control contributing 0.3 ktoe 

to the total. This is due to low current uptake (37%) and high future uptake (89%) 

Table A19.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Malta in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans) 

Machine drives 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Other 
motors) 

Machine drives 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Pumps) 

Machine drives 

Impeller Trimming or Inlet Guide Vanes 

Machine drives 

Optimization of pumping system 

Machine drives 

Optimized duct design to improve efficiency 

Machine drives 

Impeller Trimming (Pump) 

Machine drives 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Furnace)  Process Heating 

High/Premium Efficiency Motors (Pumps) 

Machine drives 

10 

Optimized motor control 

Machine drives 

1.4 

1.2 

1.1 

1.1 

0.9 

0.7 

0.7 

0.3 

0.3 

0.3 

22% 

22% 

33% 

21% 

18% 

18% 

23% 

37% 

17% 

22% 

100% 

88% 

97% 

100% 

85% 

85% 

73% 

89% 

84% 

88% 

A19.2.4 

Transport 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A19.8 for the transport sector. The largest energy savings to be had are found in private 
cars and heavy goods vehicle end-use programmes 

August 2020  

783 

 
 
 
Table A19.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Malta 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

4.8 

0.6 

0.5 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport  0.5 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

0.2 

0.1 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

25.52 

21.11 

12.10 

0.85 

39.32 

2.94 

1.92 

0.20 

16.64 

54.06 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Private car end-use programmes form 2 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential and have the 
highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 6.8 ktoe in of total savings, of which private cars account for 4.9 ktoe 
(72.5%) of that total. However, only 2.0% of that will be economic by 2030, as the gasoline/diesel private car programme will not be 
economic by 2030, yet the programme makes up 70.6% (4.8 ktoe) of total top 10 technical potential savings. The end-use with the second 
highest potential technical saving is heavy goods vehicle programmes. They make up 0.6 TOE/year (8.8%) of the total savings, although 
0.0% is expected to be economic by 2030. Of the top 10 programmes by technical potential, only 16.2% will be economic by 2030. 

This can be seen in Figure A19.28, where there is a clear difference between those programmes considered highly cost effective and those 
considered less so. While gasoline/diesel powered private cars present the largest technical potential savings, they have a CCE of 25.52 
cent/kWh and as a result are far less cost-effective than gasoline powered public road transport, whose CCEs of 0.85 cent/kWh mean they 
are far more cost effective, and thus offer a more viable alternative by 2030. However, all programmes have a relatively low likelihood of 
success (2.0 – 2.2).  

August 2020  

784 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A19.28  Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Malta in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A19.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private Cars. The 2 ESOs attaining to private cars have the largest technical energy savings (3.5 ktoe). Of those, there is a positive 

correlation between level of improved vehicle efficiency and technical potential energy savings. This is a pattern which can be observed 
throughout the ESOs, and it not confined to the private cars end use programmes. High technical potential energy savings can be 
attributed to low current uptake (3%) as uptake is not expected to be particularly high by 2030 (31%).  

■  Private Cars and Public Road Transport. The 2 private car and public road end-use ESO programmes account for 2.0 ktoe, and gains 

are attributed to low current uptake (0 - 3%).  

■  Light Duty Vehicle. The 3 ESOs on this end use category presents a total technical saving potential of 0.7 ktoe, due to low current 

uptake 

August 2020  

785 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A19.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Malta in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical 
Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

 Private cars 

2.1 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

 Private cars and 
public road transport  1.7 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

1.5 

0.3 

Fuel efficient tyres, C1 

 Private cars and 
public road transport  0.3 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

0.2 

0.2 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  0.1 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  0.1 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  0.1 

3% 

3% 

3% 

2% 

0% 

2% 

2% 

1% 

1% 

1% 

31% 

31% 

31% 

22% 

6% 

22% 

22% 

7% 

7% 

7% 

August 2020  

786 

 
 
 
 
 
A19.3 Recommendations 

A19.3.1 

Policy Review 

Malta’s main energy efficiency improvement objective set out in its draft NECP18 is to almost halve its primary energy intensity from 0.15 
Mtoe/EUR in 2005 to 0.08 Mtoe/EUR by 2030. The Commission points out that GDP is projected to almost triple by 2030 compared to 2005 
levels and hence that primary energy consumption is projected to increase by 40.5% and final energy consumption by 37.7% compared to 
2017 under this objective. The Commission therefore recommends that Malta should increase the ambition towards reducing final and 
primary energy consumption in 2030 in view of the need to increase the level of efforts to reach the Union's 2030 energy efficiency target. 

Carbon pricing systems and subsidy structures have been identified as requiring review in Malta, as there are currently no taxes the carbon 
content of fuels, a CO2 tax or a pollution tax. In the meantime, some subsidies for petrol and diesel remain in place.  

Transport is the greatest contributor to Malta's CO2 emissions. In 2016, transport was responsible for 44.1 % of total CO2 emissions in 
Malta. The government has put in place grant schemes for purchasers of more fuel-efficiency vehicles and has steadily increased the biofuel 
substitution obligation.  

The residential sector is another big contributor to the energy budget of Malta. The current overarching policy in this challenge is the Energy 
Performance of Buildings Regulations from February 2018, which establishes cost-optimal minimum energy performance requirements for 
buildings. Through the ERDF, Malta has funded increased training programs, grant schemes for solar water heaters, heat pumps, roof 
insulation and double glazing. No specific policy is in place to meet the growing demand from air condition systems. There are no policies or 
standards regarding external shading or building material. 

The Maltese government has committed itself to raising the share of renewables in final energy consumption to 10 % by 2020 but expects to 
meet the goal partly through statistical transfers. Malta could expand R&I projects and increase grant schemes for renewables, especially in 
the residential sector, to ensure the accelerated uptake of renewable energy. The Maltese government has been recommended to expand 
ERDF funding to grant schemes for small- and large-scale PV installations. 

18 Malta’s 2030 National Energy and Climate Plan of the Republic of Lithuania, draft version, 2018. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-strategy-and-energy-
union/national-energy-climate-plans  

August 2020  

787 

 
 
 
                                                
A19.3.2 

Policy and measure analysis 

There is one cross-cutting measure implemented from 2014 to 2020 providing financing schemes to incentivise the adoption of energy 
efficiency technologies in buildings, industries and transport sector. Other measures have been implemented to reach 2020, one regulatory 
measure on residences, an economic incentive to improve public buildings and a voluntary measure for industry to improve their efficiency. 

Malta has nine planned measures to reach 2030 target. Four of these measures are for residential building improvements, with a regulatory 
measure to increase the price of electricity for high consumers, complemented by technical personal visits to inform on possible 
improvements and energy efficiency grant scheme to allow vulnerable homes to make recommended improvements. An economic incentive 
is also planned to finance the installation of solar water heaters in residences. These measures are complimentary but do not provide an 
incentive for rented accommodation to make improvements. 

Three measures affect industry and services, consisting of training energy auditors, delivering energy auditing scheme along with online 
tools to facilitate audit outcomes and a financial support scheme to implement the recommendations. The package is complimentary, but no 
regulatory target has been set. 

There are two measures for the public sector to improve efficiency of public lighting with LEDs and water services operations. 

Malta addresses energy efficiency in transport in its 2025 Transport Master Plan, which includes measures to encourage multimodality and 
the uptake of electric vehicles, and to discourage private car usage in favour of public transport.  

From the policies implemented with and before NEEAP 3, Malta's energy efficiency measures have delivered persistent savings. They have 
also been estimated to deliver relatively high levels of impact, support for positive side effects, ease of acceptance by stakeholders, cost 
efficiency and market transformation for energy services. Unfortunately, the measures are not transferable to other countries.  

A19.3.3 

Recommendations 

The top priority programmes for Malta are the improvement of water heating in private residences, which total 14.4 ktoe. The government 
has already focused efforts in this area providing finance assistance for the installation of solar water heaters on residences. ESOs placed 
first, fourth and sixth iprove water heating energy efficiency , totalling to 9.6 ktoe, 3.1 of which is attributed to low-flow shower heads, which 
are currently not on the finance scheme.  

The next priority for Malta is the improvement of private cars, where 4.8 ktoe of savings have been identified. This has been deemed 
uneconomical, with plans only coming to Malta in 2025. Top ESOs have identified that improving car efficiency by 5% would result in a 2.1 
ktoe of savings.  

August 2020  

788 

 
 
 
 
A program to improve machine drives in industry has been identified as capable of delivering 4.7 ktoe and be economically viable. Energy 
audits and finance support seem to have been successful. No high ESO has been identified to deliver savings in the industrial sector. 

Commercial lighting has been identified as a top programme capable of delivering 3.6 ktoe of savings. No specific government measure has 
been identified to deliver these savings, however audit schemes and financial support measures are in place which can incentivise best 
practice. Two high saving ESOs have been identified, to install lighting controls for occupancy detection and daylighting controls, each of 
which are capable of delivering 3.6 ktoe of savings.  

Table A19.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Malta 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical 
potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Industrial 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Commercial  Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Residential  Single family houses - Electricity - Appliances 

Commercial  Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

7.9 

4.8 

4.7 

4.7 

3.6 

3.3 

3.3 

Commercial  Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating  3.0 

Commercial  Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Water Heating 

2.6 

1.9 

10 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water 

heating 

11.48 

25.52 

17.88 

1.77 

4.82 

3.44 

5.22 

40.21 

1.60 

15.46 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

August 2020  

789 

 
 
 
 
Table A19.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Malta by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Energy end-use 

Hot water heating 

Residential 

Water Heater Replacement 

Commercial 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Lighting 

Commercial 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting 

Residential 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Commercial 

Faucet Aerators 

Hot water heating 

Water Heating 

Residential 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Hot water heating 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

Commercial 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Commercial 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

10 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (3%) 

To fulfil its 2030 energy efficiency target Malta should: 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating 

Space Heating 

 Private cars,  Public road 
transport 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

4.0 

3.7 

3.6 

3.1 

2.7 

2.5 

2.1 

2.0 

1.8 

1.7 

9% 

8% 

8% 

10% 

9% 

9% 

3% 

4% 

22% 

3% 

100% 

86% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

49% 

31% 

37% 

89% 

31% 

1.  Continue efforts to increase water heating efficiency with solar water heating and commence roll-out of low-flow shower heads.  

2.  Bring forward energy efficiency plans for transport, targeting vehicle efficiency measures faster than 2025 

3.  Push for the installation of lighting controls in commercial premises 

4.  Continue auditing and financing of energy efficiency measures in industry 

August 2020  

790 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Annex 20  Netherlands  

A20.1 Summary 

Table A20.1 

Summary of modelling results for Netherlands 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

9,431 

6,167 

15,427 

9,204 

40,229 

 2,846  

 1,284  

 3,910  

 1,448  

 9,487  

 1,595  

 978  

 3,759  

 774  

 7,107  

30% 

21% 

25% 

16% 

24% 

17% 

16% 

24% 

8% 

18% 

4,018 

August 2020  

791 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A20.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A20.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating 
(1360ktoe) and space heating (1344 ktoe).   

Figure A20.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

792 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 1868 ktoe. 

Figure A20.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on residential sub-sectors 

Figure A20.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Space heating and hot water heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use fall 
under space heating (1343.6 ktoe).   

August 2020  

793 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on residential energy end uses 

Figure A20.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 1042 ktoe. 

August 2020  

794 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

795 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 6585.1 ktoe (30% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 7835.6 ktoe 
(17% energy savings against BAU), and actual BAU is 9431.0 ktoe. 

Figure A20.5 

Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Netherlands 

The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Netherland’s final energy consumption by 3131.29 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

796 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (85%) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

Figure A20.6 

Primary energy impacts for Netherlands based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

797 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A20.1.3 

Commercial 

Figure A20.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating, lighting and 
water heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the three highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (573 
ktoe), lighting (330 ktoe) and water heating (224 ktoe).   

Figure A20.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

798 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.8 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Education contains the 
highest potential over time, followed by private and public offices. In 2030, education could have potential energy savings of 443 ktoe. 

Figure A20.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

799 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Space heating, lighting and water heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the three highest potential economic savings by 
end use are Space heating (315 ktoe), lighting (330 ktoe) and water heating (205 ktoe).   

Figure A20.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

800 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Education 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, education will provide potential energy savings of 365 ktoe. 

Figure A20.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on commercial sub-sectors

August 2020  

801 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 4882.6 ktoe (21% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 5188.5 ktoe 
(16% energy savings against BAU), and actual BAU is 6166.5 ktoe. 

Figure A20.11  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Netherlands 

August 2020  

802 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Netherlands’ final energy consumption by 1283.9 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A20.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (56.92%) and natural gas 
(38.68%) contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A20.12  Primary energy impacts for Netherlands based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

803 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A20.1.4 

Industrial 

Figure A20.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under process heating (3049 ktoe). 

Figure A20.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

804 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.14 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Chemicals and 
petrochemicals contain the highest potential over time, followed by petroleum refineries. In 2030, chemicals and petrochemicals could 
provide potential energy savings of 1433 ktoe and petroleum refineries (722 ktoe). 

Figure A20.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

805 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Process heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use fall under process 
heating (3049 ktoe). 

Figure A20.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

806 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Chemicals and 
petrochemicals contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, chemicals and petrochemicals could have potential energy savings of 1347 
ktoe. 

Figure A20.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

807 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 11,518 ktoe (25% decrease against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 11668 ktoe (24% drop 
against BAU), and actual BAU is 15427 ktoe.   

Figure A20.17  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Netherlands 

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Netherlands’ final energy consumption by 3910 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

808 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (41%), RPP (25%) and 
electricity (31%) contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A20.18  Primary energy impacts for Netherlands based on technical potential for industrial sector 

August 2020  

809 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A20.1.5 

Transport  

Figure A20.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars and heavy goods 
vehicles contain the highest potential over time, followed by light duty vehicles. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use 
are private cars (681.19 ktoe) and heavy goods vehicles (450.39 ktoe). 

Figure A20.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

810 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.20 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, passenger transport could have potential energy savings of 936.21 ktoe. 

Figure A20.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

811 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Heavy good vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use is heavy goods 
vehicles (450.39 ktoe), followed by light duty vehicles (286.29 ktoe). However, in 2035, private cars will contain the highest potential 
economic savings by end use (737.69 ktoe), followed by heavy goods vehicles (481.18 ktoe). 

Figure A20.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

812 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport and freight transport contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, freight transport could have potential energy savings of 
512.02 ktoe. However, in 2035, passenger transport could provide potential energy savings of 995.13 ktoe. 

Figure A20.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Netherlands based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

813 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 7690.7 ktoe, economic energy consumption scenario is 8405.0 ktoe, and actual BAU is 9204.29 ktoe.    

Figure A20.23  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Netherlands 

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Netherlands’ final energy consumption by 1448.24 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

814 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A20.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (98.73%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

Figure A20.24  Primary energy impacts for Netherlands based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

815 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A20.2 Discussion 

A20.2.1 

Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A20.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating, hot water heating and lighting, quantified as follows: 

Table A20.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Netherlands 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

821.7 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

811.3 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating  462.3 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water 
heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Lighting 

Single family houses - Electricity - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Appliances 

422.4 

70.1 

63.3 

35.3 

33.2 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating  31.5 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Lighting 

28.4 

11.22 

4.45 

4.44 

13.82 

7.67 

0.63 

3.68 

2.71 

10.48 

0.45 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

There are 4 hot water heating programmes found within Table A20.2, which contribute to a technical energy saving potential of 1345.7 ktoe 
by 2030. However, 1244 ktoe of energy saving potential in hot water heating is evaluated to be uneconomic (92%). The second largest 
savings can be found in addressing space heating programmes which lead to technical and economic energy savings of 1308.9 ktoe by 
2030. It is clear that the majority of a savings within the top 10 can be found in the single family homes sub-sector, equating to 1834.8 ktoe 
(66% of total from top 10) technical energy savings when compared to multifamily apartments which has 944.6 ktoe in energy savings (34% 
of total from top 10). Similarly, energy savings from natural gas present 2517.6 ktoe in technical potential (91% of top 10) when compared 
with electricity (9% of top 10). 

August 2020  

816 

 
 
 
The top energy efficiency programmes within the residential sector are shown in Figure A20.25 and all have a high likelihood to succeed 
owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and the high ease of acceptance with stakeholders based on 
previous measures (scores between 3.1 and 4.3). Eight of the programmes from Table A20.2 are shown in Figure A20.25, with two space 
heating programmes displacing water heating programmes. The programme with the lowest likelihood of success among the top ten are 
space heating programmes using natural gas and Other fuels, having scores of 3.1-3.2. The programmes with the highest likelihood of 
success with a score of 4.3 are the lighting programmes in single and multi-family apartments. 

Lighting measures have the highest cost effectiveness score and are significantly cheaper (CCE of 0.45-0.63 cent/kWh) to implement than 
programmes focusing on natural gas-based hot water heating, (CCE of 11.2-13.8 cent/kWh). The space heating programmes have a CCE of 
2.2 – 4.5 cent/kWh. The natural gas based hot water heating programmes were evaluated to not be economic as shown in Table A20.2, and 
this can be seen in Figure A20.25 as they are the least cost effective of the top energy efficiency programmes.  

Figure A20.25  Top energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Netherlands in 2030 

August 2020  

817 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A20.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating and hot water heating. The building of Net-Zero-Ready Homes is an ESO which applies to both space heating and hot 

water heating energy end-uses. The current uptake of the measure is 0% and has a high target of 48% which makes this the top ESO for 
the sector with a technical potential of 395.4 ktoe by 2030.  

■  Hot water heating. There are 3 specific ESOs which focus on hot water heating energy end-use. They are low flow shower heads, 
minimize hot and warm clothes washers and wastewater heat recovery systems presenting 567.8 ktoe in technical energy savings.  
■  Multiple end-use.  Energy-efficient homes (20% above code) are design ESOs related to multiple energy end use (space heating, hot 

water heating and cooling) with a technical saving potential totalling 221.1 ktoe by 2030 owing to the very low current uptake of the ESO 
(0%).  

■  Space Heating / Space heating and cooling. 4 ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within space heating and 
space cooling. Many of these measures focus on building envelope improvements, such as wall insulation and high-performance 
windows. In total the technical energy saving potential for ESOs within these end-uses is 532.3 ktoe.  

Table A20.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Netherlands in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code)  Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Thermal Curtains 

Wall Insulation 

Air Infiltration 

High Efficiency Clothes Washer 

10 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Hot water heating 
Hot water heating 
Hot water heating 
Space heating 
Space heating, Cooling 
Space heating, Cooling 
Appliances, Hot water heating 
Space heating, Cooling 

395.4 

221.1 
214.0 

198.5 

155.3 

154.4 

142.4 

129.6 

117.4 

105.8 

0% 

0% 

10% 

17% 

80% 

15% 

12% 

12% 

17% 

12% 

48% 

40% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

55% 

45% 

56% 

88% 

45% 

August 2020  

818 

 
 
 
A20.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A20.4. The technical 
energy saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating, lighting and water heating quantified as follows: 

Table A20.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Netherlands 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Education - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Education - Electricity - Lighting 

Health - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Health - Electricity - Lighting 

121.7 

112.3 

70.9 

70.8 

63.2 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space Heating  60.1 

Education - Electricity - Space Heating 

Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Education - Natural Gas - Water Heating 

Hotels & Restaurants - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

52.4 

47.3 

45.8 

43.9 

2.19 
3.33 
2.87 
3.15 
3.43 
2.75 
24.75 
5.17 
3.70 
2.59 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Of the top 10 programmes for energy efficiency within the commercial sector the top technical energy saving can be found in space heating 
(396.3 ktoe by 2030). 296.5 ktoe of this 396.3 ktoe (74.8%) is considered economic saving potential. Lighting energy end-use also presents 
the most economic energy saving potential with 246.2 ktoe by 2030. The greatest proportion of technical energy savings can be found in 
Education subsector with 332.2 ktoe by 2030, which is 48.3% of the total energy savings presented in Table A20.4. 

August 2020  

819 

 
 
 
The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the commercial sector are shown in Figure A20.26. Three space heating programmes from 
Table A20.4 have been replaced by two lighting programmes and a cooking programme because of its low complexity and cost 
effectiveness. All programmes in Figure A20.26 have a high likelihood to succeed owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within 
the programme and the high ease of acceptance with stakeholders based on previous measures (overall score range is 3.5 – 4.7). The 
programmes with the highest likelihood of success are the cooking and lighting programmes, with a scores of 4.7. Of the top energy 
efficiency measures, the programmes with the lowest likelihood to succeed are space- and water heating-based (scores 3.5-3.7). 

The most cost-effective programmes from the top 10 are education space heating and cooking with a CCEs of 2.2 and 0.35 cent/kWh, 
respectively. The least cost-effective programmes are the water heating and lighting programmes, with CCEs of 3.2-3.7 cent/kWh). 

Figure A20.26  Top energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Netherlands in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A20.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

August 2020  

820 

 
 
 
 
■  Space heating and water heating. 4 ESOs, have impacts toward both the space heating and water heating energy end-uses. The 
ESOs are a combination of controls, building recommissioning and new builds. Energy savings from these ESOs total 398.3 ktoe of 
which 187.8 ktoe is from the construction of new more energy efficient buildings.  Building recommissioning activities and construction of 
new builds have very low current uptakes (1% in 2020) and go somewhat in explaining the high technical potential for this ESO.  

■  Lighting. Three ESOs from the top ten can be attributed to saving energy within lighting, for a total of 111.5 ktoe in savings. Two lighting 
measures focus on better controls which lead to energy savings of 82.1 ktoe within this energy end-use. Improving lighting fixtures leads 
to a technical potential of 29.4 ktoe energy savings.  

Table A20.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Netherlands in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake (2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 
Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Space Heating, Water Heating 
Space Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Linear Florescent Fixture Upgrade - 40 W 
Reduction 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Lighting 

10 

Energy Recovery Ventilation / Heat 
Recovery Ventilation 

Space Cooling 

140.3 

115.5 
110.1 

72.2 

70.3 

41.4 

41.4 

40.7 

29.4 

26.7 

1% 

1% 

27% 

1% 

36% 

80% 

36% 

36% 

26% 

15% 

100% 

34% 

94% 

34% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

86% 

A20.2.3 

Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A20.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within process heating and machine drives quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

821 

 
 
 
 
Table A20.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Netherlands 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

522.5 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - RPP - Process Heating  319.2 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

311.0 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - RPP - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Electricity - Machine 
drives 

Food and Tobacco - RPP - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - RPP - Process Heating 

218.1 

212.1 

190.0 

152.8 

136.1 

133.2 

129.6 

0.26 

0.26 

0.23 

0.32 

0.27 

0.23 

0.27 

1.45 

0.32 

0.27 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating programmes present the most technical and economic energy savings within the industrial sector (2188.6 ktoe) as they 
represent 9 of the top 10 programmes shown in Table A20.6. Machine drives programmes provides 136.1 ktoe of technical and economic 
energy saving potential. Of the savings within process heating, chemicals and petrochemicals sub-sector represents 977.8 ktoe of economic 
energy savings by 2030 (36% of total of top 10 programmes).  Natural gas-based programmes present 1416.5 ktoe of economic energy 
saving potential, which also accounts for 61% of energy savings as shown in Table A20.6. 

As can be seen from Figure A20.27 the top industrial energy efficiency programmes are dominated by process heating based energy 
efficiency programmes. All of programmes shown in Figure A18.27 have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.8-3.9), owing to 
high political feasibility and low complexity of ESOs within the programme. Electricity based machine drive programmes are the most likely to 
succeed with a score of 3.9.  

All technical programmes analysed in Figure A20.27 are considered economic, however of the top energy efficiency programmes the most 
cost effective programmes are those in the petroleum refineries (process heating) based. The CCE for the most cost-effective programmes 
are 0.2 cent/kWh. The least cost-effective programmes shown in Figure A18.27 is the electricity-based machine drive programmes with 
scores of 1.45 cent/kWh.  

August 2020  

822 

 
 
 
Figure A20.27  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Netherlands in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A20.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process Heating.  All of the top 10 ESOs reflect energy saving in process heating end-use. This is largely because of the high energy 
consumption of this end-use within the sector. The main ESOs main are those surrounding boiler and furnace energy consumption 
reduction. The top ESOs are flue gas monitoring for both furnaces and boilers with an energy saving potential of 548.6 ktoe by 2030. 
Total energy savings from process heating measures equal 1979.5 ktoe by 2030, which come about through better controls, heat 
recovery and maintenance.  

August 2020  

823 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A20.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector for Netherlands in 2030 

Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process 
Control (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery 
(Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

Combustion Optimization (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner 

Process Heating 

304.2 

289.0 

244.4 

216.0 

184.4 

184.4 

171.7 

145.1 

122.9 

117.4 

50% 

37% 

31% 

31% 

50% 

50% 

11% 

60% 

31% 

39% 

99% 

89% 

89% 

80% 

93% 

93% 

78% 

99% 

99% 

90% 

A20.2.4 

Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A20.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes for private cars, heavy goods vehicles, and light duty vehicles, quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

824 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A20.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Netherlands 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

673.9 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

447.0 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

223.3 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

61.3 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport  29.9 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

7.3 

3.4 

1.3 

0.4 

0.4 

8.09 

1.86 

1.56 

5.94 

0.11 

1.00 

0.18 

2.31 

0.03 

8.81 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Programmes for private cars total 673.9 ktoe for the transport sector, however only 7.3 ktoe is considered economic and this is for electric 
private cars. There is also a significant end-use is heavy goods vehicles programmes, which presents an economic saving potential of 450.4 
ktoe by 2030.  4 of the top 10 programmes focus on light duty vehicles in freight and passenger transport, which total 286.3 ktoe in economic 
energy savings.  

The top energy efficiency programmes are shown in Figure A20.28. All programmes have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.4 
– 3.8), attributed by good policy measures and the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement as 
seen in Figure A20.28. Heavy goods vehicles, public road transport and light duty vehicles all have the highest chance to succeed owing to 
the technical complexity of the programmes (score of 3.8). 

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is public road transport with a CCE of 0.1 cent/kWh. The least cost-effective programme is 
for private cars, which has a CCE of 8.1 cent/kWh. The private cars programme was evaluated as uneconomic as shown in Table A20.8. 

August 2020  

825 

 
 
 
Figure A20.28  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Netherlands in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A20.9  which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private cars. The top 3 ESOs are through the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved efficiency). 
The uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 8% with a 77% uptake by 2030 leading to a technical energy saving of 696.2 ktoe by 
2030. Public road transport programmes also are covered within vehicle improvements of 3% ESO. 

■  Heavy Goods Vehicles. 4 ESOs of the top 10, target energy savings in heavy goods vehicles which present technical energy savings of 

389.3 ktoe by 2030. This is as a result of a low current uptake (8%) for the ESOs in this end-use.  

■  Light Duty Vehicles. There are 3 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles. They present a technical saving potential 

totalling 282.9 ktoe by 2030. The current uptake for 2020 is evaluated to be 12% with the uptake being 100% by 2030.  

August 2020  

826 

 
 
 
 
Table A20.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector for Netherlands in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

 Private cars and public 
road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

291.7 

208.3 

196.2 

124.9 

117.3 

108.8 

90.7 

88.2 

72.5 

69.8 

8% 

8% 

8% 

12% 

8% 

8% 

8% 

12% 

8% 

12% 

77% 

77% 

77% 

100% 

82% 

82% 

82% 

100% 

82% 

100% 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

A20.3 Recommendations 

A20.3.1 

Policy review 

The Netherlands’ main energy efficiency improvement objectives set out in its draft NECP are to achieve a primary energy consumption of 
46.6 Mtoe by 2030 (excluding use for non-energy purposes) and an expected final energy consumption of 44.5 Mtoe by 2030.  That is 28% 
reduction in case of primary energy and 12% in case of final energy compared to 2017. The Commission recommends that the Netherlands 
should review its final energy consumption contribution in view of the need to increase the level of efforts to reach the Union's 2030 energy 
efficiency target – but not the primary energy consumption objective, which it considers sufficiently ambitious.  

The Commission recommends that the Netherlands should: 

August 2020  

827 

 
 
 
■ 

Identify additional PAM that could deliver further energy savings by 2030; 

■  List additional PAM to the ones already in place for the purposes of achieving the Netherlands' 2020 energy efficiency targets and 

include their expected impacts in the final NECP; 

■  Continue efforts regarding the energy saving obligation schemes beyond 2020, considering that the energy savings obligation in 2021-

2030 is more ambitious than the current one. 

The Netherlands have a number of long-standing policies, many of which went into force in 1990’s. During the course of 2019, the 
Netherlands published its National Climate Agreement. It consists of agreements between the Government and other stakeholders to 
develop PAM within “pillars” relating to the built environment (relevant to residential, industrial and commercial sectors), mobility (relevant to 
the transport sector), industry (the industrial sector again) as well as agriculture and electricity.  As such, it will inform the final NECP.   

A20.3.2 

Policies and Measure analysis  

The Netherlands have deferred inclusion of policies and measures (PAM) into the NECP until its final version.  The PAM that the 
Netherlands have stated that the final NECP will include are listed below:  

1.  the obligation for businesses with a consumption greater than 25,000 m3 gas per year and/or 50,000 kWh per year to implement energy 

saving measures 

2.  energy tax: tax on the consumption of electricity and gas within all sectors – there have been energy taxes since 1996 

3.  energy-saving investment credit: continuous tax scheme for the deduction of investments in energy efficiency – ongoing since 1997 

Other such PAMs not listed in the draft NECP include: 

4.  Long-term agreements with industrial enterprises regarding energy efficiency – ongoing since 2008 

5.  Covenant for energy savings in the private rented sector – ongoing since 2008 

Overall, the Netherlands scores highly in experience in energy efficiency policies, as many of them have been operating since the 90-ties. 
Existing measures are considered also to be very cost-effective. On the other hand, those measures have little transformational potential 
and do not address well the negative side-effects. 

August 2020  

828 

 
 
 
 
A20.3.3 

Recommendations 

Table A20.10 and Table A20.11 show top 10 programmes and ESOs, respectively. Residential sector has a huge potential for reduction of 
natural gas consumption used for space and hot water heating. Single family houses have higher potential than multi-family buildings, but 
both are significant, with the potential of 1633 ktoe for single-family and 885 ktoe for multi-family housing (and a total of 2,518 ktoe). 
Increasing energy efficiency for space heating for both kinds of housing may be considered economic, but that is not the case for hot water 
heating. Improving energy ratings of buildings to a “net-zero ready” status and to “high efficiency” level could account for 617 ktoe of savings 
up to 2030.  

Third, sixth and tenth top programmes come from the transport sector and refer to efficiency increase in private cars and heavy goods 
vehicles, which have technical potential to save 1344 ktoe in total. The highest ranked single opportunities in transport sector are high-
efficiency private cars. 

Four top programmes and four ESOs come from industrial sector and refer to the end-use of process heating. Sum of these four 
programmes’ technical potential is 1054 ktoe. The most impactful opportunities refer to advanced monitoring and control of industrial 
burners, furnaces and boilers with a total contribution of 304 ktoe.  

Table A20.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in the Netherlands 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical 
potential by 2030 
(ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  821.7 

11.22 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

811.3 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

673.9 

Industrial 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - 
Process Heating 

522.5 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space 

462.3 

heating 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods 
vehicles 

447.0 

4.45 

8.09 

0.26 

4.44 

1.86 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water 

422.4 

13.82 

heating 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

August 2020  

829 

 
 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical 
potential by 2030 
(ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

8 

9 

10 

Industrial 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - RPP - Process 
Heating 

319.2 

Industrial 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

311.0 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty 
Vehicles 

223.3 

0.26 

0.23 

1.56 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Table A20.11 

Top 10 ESOs for the Netherlands by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Energy end-use 

Hot water heating, 
Space heating 

Residential  Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

Industrial 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Residential 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above 
code) 

Space heating, Hot 
water heating, Cooling  221.1 

Industrial  High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Residential  Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (4%) 

 Private cars 

395.4 

304.2 

291.7 

289.0 

244.4 

216.0 

214.0 

208.3 

198.5 

10 

Residential  Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash  Hot water heating 

August 2020  

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

0% 

50% 

8% 

37% 

31% 

0% 

31% 

10% 

8% 

17% 

48% 

100% 

100% 

99% 

89% 

77% 

89% 

80% 

40% 

77% 

830 

 
 
 
 
It is recommended that the Netherlands introduces following steps to significantly improve their energy efficiency: 

1.  Encourage investing in retrofitting industrial furnaces with better monitoring and control systems. 

2.  Incentivise building insulation improvements in new build houses to make them highly efficient and net-zero ready. 

3.  Introduce an awareness campaign on energy efficiency behaviour, underlining the benefits of closing windows, blinds and saving hot 

water. 

August 2020  

831 

 
 
 
 
Annex 21  Poland 

A21.1 Summary 

Table A21.1 

Summary of modelling results for Poland 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

19,611 

8,293 

18,438 

19,564 

65,907 

 4,443  

 2,446  

 4,405  

 797  

 12,091  

 150  

 1,378  

 4,272  

 50  

 5,849  

23% 

29% 

24% 

4% 

18% 

1% 

17% 

23% 

0% 

9% 

5,587 

August 2020  

832 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A21.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A21.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating (1839 
ktoe) and space heating (2500 ktoe).   

Figure A21.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

833 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 2830 ktoe. 

Figure A21.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

834 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. Hot 
water heating, space heating and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use 
fall under space heating (58 ktoe).   

Figure A21.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

835 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 128 ktoe. 

Figure A21.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

836 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 15168.4 ktoe (23% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 19461.7 ktoe 
(1% energy savings against BAU), and actual BAU is 19611.4 ktoe. 

Figure A21.5 

Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Poland 

The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Poland’s final energy consumption by 5286.27 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

837 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (21%), natural gas (39%) and coal 
(22%) contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A21.6 

Primary energy impacts for Poland based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

838 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A21.1.3 

Commercial 

Figure A21.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Refrigeration, lighting and 
space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the three highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (828 
ktoe), refrigeration (622 ktoe) and lighting (555 ktoe).   

Figure A21.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

839 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.8 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and retail trade 
contain the highest potential over time, followed by private and public offices. In 2030, wholesale and retail trade could have potential energy 
savings of 1171 ktoe and private and public offices 631 ktoe. 

Figure A21.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

840 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Refrigeration and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
refrigeration (622 ktoe) and lighting (555 ktoe). 

Figure A21.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

841 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, wholesale and retail trade will provide potential energy savings of 1029 ktoe. 

Figure A21.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

842 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 5847.2 ktoe (29% energy savings against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 6914.9 ktoe 
(18% energy savings against BAU), and actual BAU is 8293.1 ktoe. 

Figure A21.11 

   Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Poland 

August 2020  

843 

 
 
 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Poland’s final energy consumption by 2445.9 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A21.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (86.06%) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

Figure A21.12  Primary energy impacts for Poland based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

844 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A21.1.4 

Industrial 

Figure A21.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under process heating (3329 ktoe). 

Figure A21.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

845 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.14 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. The industry’s saving 
potential is very well balanced over time, with sectors sharing similar saving potentials. In 2030, other industries has the highest energy 
saving potential with a technical potential of 870 ktoe. 

Figure A21.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

846 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Process heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use fall under process 
heating (3329 ktoe). 

Figure A21.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

847 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. The industry’s 
economic saving potential is very well balanced over time, with sectors sharing similar saving potentials. In 2030, other industries has the 
highest energy saving potential with a economic potential of 865 ktoe. 

Figure A21.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

848 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 14033 ktoe (drop of 24% against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 14166 ktoe (23% drop 
against BAU), and actual BAU is 18438 ktoe. 

Figure A21.17 

  Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Poland 

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Poland’s final energy consumption by 4405 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

849 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (18%), electricity (56%), and 
coal (15%) contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A21.18  Primary energy impacts for Poland based on technical potential for industrial sector 

August 2020  

850 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A21.1.5 

Transport  

Figure A21.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars and heavy goods 
vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are private cars (435.25 ktoe) 
and heavy goods vehicles (261.90 ktoe). 

Figure A21.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

851 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.20 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, passenger transport could have potential energy savings of 503.41 ktoe. 

Figure A21.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

852 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of 2020-2050 according to its end use. 
Heavy good vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use fall under light duty 
vehicles (43.82 ktoe). However, in 2045, heavy goods vehicles could provide savings of 712.51 ktoe. 

Figure A21.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on transport energy end uses 

August 2020  

853 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Freight transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, passenger transport could have potential energy savings of 91.84 ktoe. However, in 2045, 
freight transport could provide savings of 715.07 ktoe. 

Figure A21.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Poland based on transport sub-sectors 

August 2020  

854 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 18677.7 ktoe, economic energy consumption scenario is 19504.6 ktoe, and actual BAU is 19564.32 ktoe. 

Figure A21.23  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Poland 

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Poland’s final energy consumption by 797.20 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

855 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A21.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (91.06%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

Figure A21.24  Primary energy impacts for Poland based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

856 

 
 
 
 
A21.2 Discussion 

A21.2.1 

Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A21.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating and hot water heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A21.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Poland 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Single family houses - Coal - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Coal - Space heating 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Coal - Hot water heating 

673.1 

615.1 

508.0 

378.4 

368.5 

325.3 

303.6 

194.4 

161.0 

141.3 

31.83 

12.37 

5.69 

38.95 

12.34 

5.74 

5.69 

5.74 

21.73 

2.23 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Space heating programmes form 6 of the top 10 programmes for the residential sector and also have the largest energy saving potential, with 
2314.8 ktoe of which 498 ktoe is found to be economic by 2030. Programmes on hot water heating (totalling 1353.9 ktoe) presents the second 
largest technical saving potential, however only 302.4 ktoe these is found to be economic by 2030. Programmes involving natural gas constitute 
the  largest  segment  by  fuel  source,  with  2035.2  ktoe  of  technical  potential,  however  none  of  it  is  economic  by  2030.  Among  the  top  ten 
programmes by technical potential, single family homes represent 2402.2 ktoe however only 606 ktoe of it is economic by 2030. 

August 2020  

857 

 
 
 
All top technical energy efficiency programmes for residential sector have high likelihood of success (score ranging from 3.3-4.5) attributed by 
good policy measures and the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement as can be seen in Figure 
A21.25. Electricity lighting programme in single family and multifamily houses has the highest likelihood of success with score of 4.5. On the 
contrary, space heating programmes have the least likelihood of success (score-3.3). 

The  most  cost-effective  programmes  are  the  lighting  programmes,  with  a  CCE  of  1.1-1.6  cent/kWh.  The  least  cost-effective  programmes 
among the top ten are natural gas-based programmes, with CCEs ranging from 12.3 – 31.8 cent/kWh. 

Figure A21.25  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Poland in 2030 

August 2020  

858 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A21.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■ Space Heating. Two ESOs are targeted specifically at space heating. Thermal curtains for windows and basement insulation together have 
a total technical potential of 672.8 ktoe by 2030, owing to low current uptake (10%) and moderate 2030 uptake (43%) 

■ Hot water heating. The 3 hot water heating ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling 770.1 ktoe primarily due to low current 
uptake. Low flow shower head, replacement of water heaters and active solar water heating systems have a relatively low current uptake and 
the remaining potential by 2030 is high.  

■ Space heating and cooling. The 3 ESOs from space heating and cooling present a technical saving potential of 969.9 ktoe, of this wall 
insulation has the highest technical saving potential. 

Table A21.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Poland in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Thermal Curtains 

Wall Insulation 

Air Infiltration 

Hot water heating 

Space heating 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Space heating, Cooling 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Space heating 

Hot water heating 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code) 

Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling 

10 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash 

Hot water heating 

487.8 

401.5 

370.2 

327.7 

286.1 

271.9 

271.3 

154.1 

151.6 

128.3 

10% 

7% 

10% 

10% 

0% 

10% 

10% 

10% 

0% 

5% 

43% 

47% 

43% 

55% 

48% 

43% 

43% 

100% 

40% 

100% 

August 2020  

859 

 
 
 
A21.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A21.4. The technical 
energy saving potential mainly lies within programmes on lighting, and space heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A21.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Poland 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Refrigeration 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating 

615.5 

379.8 

160.9 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space Heating  108.2 

Private and Public Offices - Other   - Space Heating 

Education - Electricity - Lighting 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Water Heating 

Education - Electricity - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

Education - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

87.0 

70.8 

67.6 

62.6 

62.3 

57.9 

3.42 

7.26 

63.32 

17.99 

17.99 

7.68 

18.93 

63.14 

7.87 

5.54 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

Space heating programmes form 5 of the top 10 programmes for the commercial sector and have the largest technical saving potential of 
476.6 ktoe, however none of these is evaluated to be economic by 2030. Refrigeration in wholesale and retail trade segment has the highest 
technical and economic saving potential of 615.5 ktoe. The 3 programmes from lighting have a technical and economic saving potential of 
512.9 ktoe.   

August 2020  

860 

 
 
 
Figure  A21.26  shows  the  top  energy  efficiency  programmes  by  overall  score.  Compared  to  Table  A21.4,  none  of  the  space  heating 
programmes carry into Figure A21.26. All top technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector have high likelihood of success 
(score ranging from 3.8 - 4.5) attributed by good policy measures and the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward 
to implement. Among the top ten, Lighting and IT & Multimedia programmes have the highest likelihood, with a score of 4.5. Electric water 
heating in private and public offices, and refrigeration in Wholesale & Retail have the least likelihood to success (score-3.8).  

Conversely, the most cost-effective programme is electric refrigeration in wholesale and retail trade sector (CCE of 3.4 cent/kWh). The least 
cost-effective  programmes  are  the  IT  &  Multimedia  programmes  with  CCEs  of  32.9  cent/kWh.  Lighting  has  CCEs  ranging  from  7.3  –  7.9 
cent/kWh.  

Figure A21.26  Top energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Poland in 2030 

August 2020  

861 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A21.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■ Refrigeration. The top 2 ESOs in commercial sector is in refrigeration and presents a potential of 571.2 ktoe by 2030. Both ESOs are strip 
curtain for cold rooms. The combination of low uptake (10%) of this technology and high future uptake (100%) lead to the high technical energy 
savings. 

■ Lighting. The 2-lighting ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling 295.9 ktoe by 2030 with 100% future uptake. 

■ Space heating and hot water heating. Four ESOs save energy in space heating and hot water heating which lead to 408.1 ktoe technical 
energy savings by 2030.  

Table A21.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Poland in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Strip Curtain for Walk-in Freezers 

Strip Curtain for Walk-in Coolers 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Refrigeration 

Refrigeration 

Space Heating 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced)  Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

10 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

285.8 

285.3 

196.5 

164.5 

159.0 

136.9 

130.7 

112.0 

95.3 

70.0 

10% 

10% 

0% 

10% 

8% 

8% 

3% 

3% 

8% 

3% 

100% 

100% 

67% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

36% 

100% 

36% 

August 2020  

862 

 
 
 
A21.2.3 

Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A21.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies with process heating and machine drives, quantified as follows: 

Table A21.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Poland 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Coal - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Coal - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Coal - Process Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

224.2 

187.7 

166.7 

154.9 

139.5 

134.6 

129.6 

129.2 

126.9 

126.6 

0.33 

0.33 

0.33 

0.33 

0.33 

0.39 

0.33 

0.32 

1.89 

0.28 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating programmes form 9 of the top 10 programmes for the industrial sector and have the largest technical saving potential of 1425 
ktoe of which 1393 ktoe is economic. From the top 10 programmes, technical energy and economic energy savings from machine drives total 
127 ktoe.  

All top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector have a high likelihood to succeed (score 3.7-3.8) owing to the low complexity 
of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures as seen in Figure A21.27. 
The most cost-effective programme is process heating with coal within petroleum refineries owing to the large technical potential (CCE of 0.28 
cent/kWh). The least cost-effective programme is other industry electricity machine drives industry with CCE of 1.89 cent/kWh. It should be 
noted that all process heating programmes within industry have a very low CCE and are all economic. 

August 2020  

863 

 
 
 
Figure A21.27  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Poland in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A21.7which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process heating. All of the top 10 ESOs reflect energy saving in process heating end-use accounting to 1779 ktoe of energy saving 

potential by 2030. This is largely because of the high energy consumption of this end-use within the sector. Boiler/Furnace control ESOs 
and form 8 out of the top 10 measures. The current uptake of the sector is not low, and the future uptake is anticipated to exceed 90% for 
7 ESOs. ESO for flue gas monitoring in boilers has the highest saving potential of 320.8 ktoe by 2030. 

August 2020  

864 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A21.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Poland in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Boiler right sizing 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Process Heat Recovery to Preheat Makeup Water 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner 

Process Heating 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

320.8 

226.3 

197.0 

193.6 

193.6 

156.9 

141.4 

133.2 

112.6 

103.4 

51% 

37% 

31% 

51% 

51% 

11% 

60% 

31% 

46% 

40% 

100% 

90% 

89% 

94% 

94% 

79% 

100% 

81% 

91% 

91% 

A21.2.4 

Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A21.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes for private cars, light duty vehicles, public road transport and heavy-goods vehicle, quantified 
as follows: 

August 2020  

865 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A21.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Poland 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

     CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

420.9 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

252.0 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

41.5 

30.9 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport 

24.3 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

14.4 

9.9 

1.3 

1.1 

1.0 

29.28 

10.49 

11.71 

16.87 

1.25 

3.26 

0.93 

15.54 

0.29 

22.38 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Programmes for private cars total 435.3 ktoe for the transport sector, however only 14.4 ktoe is considered economic and this is for electric 
private cars. 4 of the top 10 programmes focus on light duty vehicles in freight and passenger transport, totalling 74.7 ktoe technical potential 
of which 43.8 ktoe is economic. The other significant end-use is heavy goods vehicles programmes, which presents a technical saving potential 
of 261.9 ktoe by 2030 of which 9.9 ktoe. 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes for transport sector are shown in Figure A21.28. All programmes have a low likelihood of success 
(ranging between 1.8 – 2.5) as seen in Figure A21.4. This is because there are no previous energy efficiency measures within the sector in 
order  to  evaluate  the  political  feasibility  of  the  programmes.  The  most  cost-effective  programme  of  the  top  10  is  electric  freight  transport 
vehicles (CCE of 0.93 cent/kWh). The least cost-effective programme is the one with the largest technical potential, private cars which has a 
CCE of 29.28 cent/kWh.  

August 2020  

866 

 
 
 
Figure A21.28  Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Poland in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A21.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■ Private cars. The top ESO is through the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved efficiency). The 
uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 2% with a 24% uptake by 2030 leading to a technical energy saving of 429.7 ktoe. 

■ Heavy Goods Vehicles. Five ESOs through improved vehicle efficiency in heavy goods vehicles which present technical energy savings 
of 242.1 ktoe by 2030. This is as a result of a low future uptake for the ESOs in this end-use. 

August 2020  

867 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A21.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Poland in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

 Private cars and 
public road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

Fuel efficient tyres, C1 

 Private cars and 
public road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (15%) 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

177.8 

127.0 

124.8 

64.0 

59.4 

49.5 

39.6 

30.9 

30.9 

29.7 

2% 

2% 

2% 

2% 

2% 

2% 

2% 

0% 

2% 

2% 

24% 

24% 

24% 

15% 

15% 

15% 

15% 

6% 

18% 

15% 

A21.3 Recommendations 

A21.3.1 

Policy summary 

The Polish draft NECP shows a reduction of primary energy consumption from 99.1 Mtoe in 2017 to 90.9 Mtoe in 2030, which is an 8 % 
decrease. This is much less than the EU-wide energy efficiency goal, but the document stresses that this reduction is achieved in parallel 
with the significant increase of standard of living, which will involve increases in travel and building stock per capita.  

August 2020  

868 

 
 
 
As a country heavily dependent on coal, Poland sees a lot of synergies between energy efficiency and air quality measures. At the same 
time the European Commission noted that given that characteristic Poland’s NECP would benefit from more detailed plan for just and fair 
transition from coal.  

The draft NECP plan for Poland shows potential areas of support and these are: electrification of transport, thermo-modernisation of 
buildings and high-efficiency products. The existing system of white certificates is foreseen to be the main driver for energy efficiency in 
industry, but it may be also used in building renovation and large lighting systems replacements. 

Both the Polish authorities and the European Commission do agree that there is a significant potential in the energy efficiency sector, the 
targets presented in the draft NECP are not detailed enough to fully assess them and do not explain in details what steps are planned to 
achieve those targets. The overall level of ambition for energy efficiency targets has been labelled as modest by the Commission. 

A21.3.2 

Policies and Measure analysis  

There is a total of twelve energy efficiency measures in the policy database, two of which are planned and another two have been 
implemented in 2019. At least six of the twelve measures have a fiscal or economic character, but some of those have a very narrow target 
group that limits their potential impact. There are no significant cross-cutting policies that would affect the whole economy, unless the 
measures targeting infrastructure would be treated as such.  

Targeted groups involve natural gas transmission and distribution networks (two policies), combined heat and power generation, ESCOs 
(Energy Services Companies) and DSR (Demand Side Response) linked with BEMS (Building Energy Management Systems). Policies in 
place do target a mix of residential, commercial (including public) and industrial sectors, however there are no policies dedicated to the 
transport sector. 

One of the biggest (worth approximately EUR 25 billion over a decade) public programmes in Poland is not listed as an energy efficiency 
measure, although it has a significant overlap of scope and expected outcomes. The programme is called Clean Air and primarily is meant to 
improve the air quality by helping to replace coal-fired boilers in single-family houses.  

Polish policies in general score highly on cost-effectiveness and links to other measures. They are also easily accepted by relevant 
stakeholders. There are few downsides of the measures implemented in Poland, such as relatively low impact of some of them and limited 
experience in operation. 

A21.3.3 

Recommendations 

Below, in two tables Table A21.10 and Table A21.11, top 10 energy-efficiency programmes and top 10 Energy Saving Opportunities (ESOs) 
for Poland are ranked. In both rankings residential sector is shown to be the one with highest potential for energy savings. Three of the top 
four top programmes are related to single family houses, with multi-family apartments on seventh, eighth and ninth place. Seven residential 

August 2020  

869 

 
 
 
programmes have a total technical potential of 3172 ktoe, of which 2120 ktoe is the potential of space heating improvements and the 
remaining 1051 ktoe is the potential of hot water heating. However, most of those top interventions in residential sector has been flagged as 
not economic.  

Two programmes in the commercial sector, in particular in wholesale and retail trade, have made it to the top 10, and both have been 
assessed as economic. End use for those two programmes, ranked second and sixth) are refrigeration and lighting. The final programme in 
the top 10 are private cars efficiency, ranked at fifth position. 

No industrial programmes made it to the top 10 of the energy-efficiency programmes, but one industrial ESO was classified fifth with savings 
potential of 321 ktoe. All higher ranked ESOs are from the residential sector and these are thermal curtains, wastewater heat recovery, wall 
insulation and air infiltration. Second half of the top 10 ESOs shows a mix of residential and commercial opportunities, where the commercial 
ones link to the refrigeration programme visible in the top 10 programmes, and the residential ones focus on further refurbishment of housing 
stock by getting in net-zero ready, insulating basements and windows replacement (with super-high performance products). 

Table A21.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Poland 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical 
potential by 2030 
(ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

673.1 

Commercial  Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Refrigeration 

615.5 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Coal - Space heating 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Commercial  Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Residential 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water 
heating 

615.1 

508.0 

420.9 

379.8 

378.4 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating  368.5 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Coal - Space heating 

10 

Residential  Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

325.3 

303.6 

31.83 

3.42 

12.37 

5.69 

29.28 

7.26 

38.95 

12.34 

5.74 

5.69 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

August 2020  

870 

 
 
 
Table A21.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Poland by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems  Hot water heating 

Residential 

Thermal Curtains 

Space heating 

487.8 

401.5 

Residential  Wall Insulation 

Residential 

Air Infiltration 

Space heating, Cooling  370.2 

Space heating, Cooling  327.7 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

320.8 

Residential 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, 
Space heating 

Commercial 

Strip Curtain for Walk-in Freezers 

Refrigeration 

Commercial 

Strip Curtain for Walk-in Coolers 

Refrigeration 

286.1 

285.8 

285.3 

Residential 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Space heating, Cooling  271.9 

10 

Residential 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Space heating 

271.3 

10% 

7% 

10% 

10% 

51% 

0% 

10% 

10% 

10% 

10% 

100% 

43% 

43% 

55% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

48% 

43% 

43% 

Based on the modelling outputs, recommendations for Poland are as follows: 

1.  Continue the push for smog reduction and energy efficiency by subsidising boiler replacement. That should include streamlining 

application processes to increase the uptake in the short-term. 

2.  Incentivise usage of highly efficient private cars, by penalising or regulating older, less efficient vehicles or incentivising new low-

emission vehicles 

3.  Introduce a programme in the commercial sector to promote good practice in refrigeration systems usage. This could include information 

campaign on strip curtains for walk-in coolers and freezers. 

August 2020  

871 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Annex 22  Portugal 

A22.1 Summary 

Table A22.1 

Summary of modelling results for Portugal 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030  

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

2,994 

2,280 

5,400 

5,102 

15,776 

 920  

 537  

 1,242  

 341  

 3,039  

 564  

 403  

 1,205  

 91  

 2,263  

31% 

24% 

23% 

7% 

19% 

19% 

18% 

22% 

2% 

14% 

1,230 

August 2020  

872 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A22.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A22.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and lighting 
contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating (564 ktoe) and 
lighting (167 ktoe).   

Figure A22.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on residential energy end uses. 

August 2020  

873 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 531 ktoe. 

Figure A22.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on residential sub-sectors 

Figure A22.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Hot 
water heating and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are hot 
water heating (209 ktoe) and lighting (167 ktoe).   

August 2020  

874 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on residential energy end uses  

Figure A22.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 329 ktoe. 

August 2020  

875 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on residential sub-sectors 

Figure A22.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 2074.6 ktoe (31% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 2430.1 ktoe (19% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 2994.2 ktoe.    

August 2020  

876 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Portugal 

The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Portugal’s final energy consumption by 886.21 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A22.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (74%), RPP (15%) and natural 
gas (111%) contain the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

877 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.6 

Primary energy impacts for Portugal based on technical potential for residential sector 

A22.1.3 

Commercial 

Figure A22.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating, refrigeration 
and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the three highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (128 
ktoe), refrigeration (138 ktoe) and lighting (169 ktoe).   

August 2020  

878 

 
 
 
 
Figure A22.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on commercial energy end uses 

Figure A22.8 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale & retail trade 
contains the highest potential over time, followed by private and public offices. In 2030, Wholesale & retail trade could have potential energy 
savings of 229 ktoe and private and public offices of 136 ktoe. 

August 2020  

879 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on commercial sub-sectors 

Figure A22.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Refrigeration and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
refrigeration (138 ktoe) and lighting (169 ktoe). 

August 2020  

880 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on commercial energy end uses  

Figure A22.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale & 
retail trade contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, wholesale & retail trade could provide potential energy savings of 215 ktoe. 

August 2020  

881 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

882 

 
 
 
 
Figure A22.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1743.4 ktoe (24% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1877 ktoe (18% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 2279.9 ktoe. 

Figure A22.11  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Portugal 

August 2020  

883 

 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Portugal’s final energy consumption by 536.6 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A22.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (94 %) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

Figure A22.12  Primary energy impacts for Portugal based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

884 

 
 
 
 
A22.1.4 

Industrial 

Figure A22.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use will fall under process heating (928 ktoe).   

Figure A22.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

885 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.14 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Petroleum refineries and 
paper, pulp and print industries contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, petroleum refineries could have potential energy savings of 
341 ktoe, followed by paper, pulp and print industries with savings of 288 ktoe. 

Figure A22.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

886 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings will fall under process heating (928 
ktoe). 

Figure A22.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on industrial energy end uses  

Figure A22.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Petroleum 
refineries and paper, pulp and print industries contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, petroleum refineries could have potential 
energy savings of 337 ktoe, followed by paper, pulp and print industries, with savings of 280 ktoe. 

August 2020  

887 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on industrial sub-sectors  

Figure A22.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 4158 ktoe (23% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 4195 ktoe (22% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 5400 ktoe.   

August 2020  

888 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Portugal  

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Portugal’s final energy consumption by 1242 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A22.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (21%) and electricity (57%) 
contain the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

889 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.18  Primary energy impacts for Portugal based on technical potential for industrial sector 

A22.1.5 

Transport  

Figure A22.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use will come from private cars (246.58 ktoe). 

August 2020  

890 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A22.20 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, passenger transport could have potential energy savings of 298.66 ktoe. 

August 2020  

891 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A22.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Private cars contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use fall under light duty vehicles, 
with savings of 43.92 ktoe. However, in 2038, passenger cars could provide energy savings of 409.88 ktoe. 

August 2020  

892 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on transport energy end uses  

Figure A22.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, passenger transport could have potential energy savings of 57.17 ktoe. 
Nevertheless, in 2038 this value could grow all the way to 502.34 ktoe. 

August 2020  

893 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Portugal based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A22.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 4724.0 ktoe (7% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 4993.4 ktoe (2% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 5101.89 ktoe.    

August 2020  

894 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.23  Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Portugal 

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Portugal’s final energy consumption by 340.95 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A22.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (94.70%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

895 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A22.24  Primary energy impacts for Portugal based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

896 

 
 
 
 
A22.2 Discussion 

A22.2.1 

Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A22.2.The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on hot water heating and lighting, quantified as follows: 

Table A22.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Portugal 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Lighting 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Lighting 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Appliances 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Appliances 

122.4 

119.9 

97.5 

86.9 

85.8 

82.1 

69.2 

67.6 

55.4 

37.6 

10.19 

15.40 

0.81 

13.81 

19.13 

15.53 

0.58 

19.16 

3.62 

15.21 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Hot water heating programmes form 6 of the top 10 programmes for the residential sector and also have the largest energy saving potential, 
with 564.7 ktoe of which 209.3 ktoe is found to be economic by 2030. Programmes on lighting for single family houses and multi-family 
apartments (totalling 166.7 ktoe) presents the second largest technical and economic saving potential. Programmes for electric hot water 
heating of single-family houses have the largest technical and economic potential of 122.4 ktoe.  

August 2020  

897 

 
 
 
All programmes have moderate likelihood success score (ranging from 2.5-3.7) as can be seen in Figure A22.25.This is because previous 
measures in the residential sector have not been easily accepted by stakeholders. Lighting in the most likelihood of success with score of 
3.7. Space heating with RRP in single family homes has the lowest likelihood of success with a score of 2.5. 

The most cost-effective programmes are lighting in multifamily and single-family homes (CCE of 0.58 and 0.81 cent/kWh, respectively). The 
least cost-effective programme is RRP hot water heating in multifamily apartments with a CCE of 19.1 cent/kWh. 

Figure A22.25  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Portugal in 2030 

August 2020  

898 

 
 
 
  
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A22.3which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■ Hot water heating. The 7 hot water heating ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling  384.4 ktoe primarily due to low current 
uptake. Low flow shower head, replacement of water heaters and active solar water heating systems have a relatively low current uptake and 
the remaining potential by 2030 is high.  

■ Lighting. Residential lighting efficiency from Incand. has a technical potential saving of 120.4 ktoe due to low current uptake.   

Table A22.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Portugal in 2030 

Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Residential Lighting Efficiency from Incand. 

Lighting 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Water Heater Replacement 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Hot water heating 

Heat Pump Water Heater  

Hot water heating 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Hot water heating 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash 

Hot water heating 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

DHW Tank Insulation 

Refrigerator Recycling 

Hot water heating 

Appliances 

120.4 

85.3 

62.1 

59.2 

52.9 

46.0 

43.5 

36.3 

35.3 

28.6 

3% 

10% 

11% 

11% 

11% 

11% 

2% 

11% 

11% 

2% 

53% 

100% 

88% 

51% 

88% 

44% 

100% 

58% 

88% 

100% 

August 2020  

899 

 
 
 
A22.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A22.4. The technical 
energy saving potential mainly lies within programmes on refrigeration, lighting, and space heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A22.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Portugal 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Refrigeration 

131.7 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

73.9 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating 

51.8 

Education - Electricity - Lighting 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

Hotels & Restaurants - Electricity - Water Heating 

Education - Electricity - Space Heating 

35.0 

34.6 

14.5 

13.1 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - IT & Multimedia 

12.5 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space Heating  12.1 

Health - Electricity - Lighting 

10.7 

1.94 

4.03 

32.09 

4.26 

4.36 

1.87 

32.00 

16.61 

9.18 

4.39 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Lighting programmes form 4 of the top 10 programmes for the commercial sector and also have the largest technical and economic energy 
saving potential, with 154.2 ktoe. The 3 programmes from space heating have a technical potential of 77 ktoe but none of them are economic. 
Refrigeration within wholesale & retail trade sector has the highest technical and economic potential of 131.7 ktoe.   

August 2020  

900 

 
 
 
As  seen in  Figure  A22.26,  all  programmes  in  the  top  ten  have moderate likelihood  success  scores  ranging from  2.5  to 3.7.  Owing  to low 
likelihood and cost-effectiveness scores, two of the space heating programmes from Table A22.4 have been replaced by lighting programmes. 
Among  the  top  ten,  electricity  space  heating  in  private  and  public  offices  has  the  least  likelihood  of  success  (score  2.5)  and  the  lighting 
programmes having the most likelihood of success (score-3.7). 

The most cost-effective programme among top ten programmes is water heating from hotels and restaurant with (CCE of 1.9 cent/kWh). The 
least cost-effective programme is electric space heating in private and public offices with a CCE of 32.1 cent/kWh.  

Figure A22.26  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Portugal in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A22.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

August 2020  

901 

 
 
 
 
■ Refrigeration. The top 2 ESOs come from refrigeration and present a potential of 123.3 ktoe by 2030. Both are based on strip curtains for 
cold rooms. The combination of low uptake of this technology and high future uptake lead to the high technical energy savings. 

■ Lighting. The 4-lighting ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling 69.2 ktoe by 2030 with 100% future uptake. 

■ Space heating and hot water heating. Two measures save energy in space heating and hot water heating. Two of the measures involve 
the construction of new efficient buildings (20% and 40% better), which lead to 47.8 ktoe technical energy savings by 2030.  

Table A22.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Portugal in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Strip Curtain for Walk-in Freezers 

Strip Curtain for Walk-in Coolers 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Faucet Aerators 

Commercial Door Air Infiltration Heat 
Pump Heating 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W 
(Against 250W baseline) 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W 
(Against 200W baseline) 

Refrigeration 

Refrigeration 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating 

Water Heating 

Space Heating 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating 

Lighting 

Lighting 

61.7 

61.6 

29.4 

28.9 

26.9 

19.2 

18.8 

18.4 

16.2 

15.0 

21% 

21% 

30% 

0% 

0% 

66% 

66% 

30% 

63% 

63% 

100% 

100% 

63% 

100% 

91% 

100% 

100% 

63% 

100% 

100% 

August 2020  

902 

 
 
 
A22.2.3 

Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A22.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies with process heating and machine drives, quantified as follows: 

Table A22.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Portugal 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

103.6 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

79.5 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Machine drives 

61.1 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

57.4 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Electricity - Machine drives 

Petroleum refineries - Other   - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - RPP - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Process Heating 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Other   - Process Heating 

57.2 

56.9 

56.5 

53.0 

46.4 

43.6 

0.23 

0.26 

1.39 

0.27 

0.27 

1.45 

0.17 

0.23 

0.37 

0.20 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating programmes form 8 of the top 10 programmes for the industrial sector and also have the largest technical and  economic 
energy saving potential, with 497.3 ktoe. From the top 10 programmes, technical energy and economic energy savings from machine drives 
total 118 ktoe.  

All programmes have a high likelihood to succeed owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political 
feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures as seen in Figure A22.27. The programme with the highest chance to succeed are 
machine drives in paper, pulp and print and petroleum refineries with a score of 4.6 and programme with a lower likelihood to succeed is the 
process heating with other fuels within petroleum refineries (score 4.5).  

The  most  cost-effective  programme  is  process  heating  within  petroleum  refineries  owing  to  the  large  technical  potential  (CCE  of  0.17 
cent/kWh). The least cost-effective programme is machine drives in paper, pulp and print industry with a CCE of 1.45 cent/kWh. It should be 
noted that all process heating programmes within industry have a very low CCE and are all economic. 

August 2020  

903 

 
 
 
 
Figure A22.27  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Portugal in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A22.7which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■ Process heating. All of the top 10 ESOs reflect energy saving in process heating end-use. This is largely because of the high energy 
consumption of this end-use within the sector. Boiler/Furnace control ESOs form top 5 of the measures totalling 318 ktoe technical 
energy savings by 2030. 102.5 ktoe can be saved through heat recovery as can be seen by ESOs 7,9 and 10. Whilst the current uptake 
of the top 10 is not low, the future uptake is anticipated to be higher and, in some cases, reach 100%. 

August 2020  

904 

 
 
 
 
Table A22.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Portugal in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Dryer) 

Process Heating 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Dryer) 

Process Heating 

Process Heat Recovery to Preheat Makeup Water 

Process Heating 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

96.6 

69.1 

51.0 

51.0 

50.2 

40.7 

36.5 

35.4 

34.3 

31.7 

50% 

37% 

49% 

49% 

31% 

8% 

11% 

59% 

6% 

45% 

100% 

89% 

93% 

93% 

89% 

74% 

78% 

100% 

72% 

91% 

A22.2.4 

Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A22.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes for private cars, light duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles, quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

905 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A22.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Portugal 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road 
transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

241.5 

42.8 

32.5 

8.6 

8.1 

5.1 

1.0 

0.9 

0.2 

0.2 

8.92 

3.96 

6.49 

19.81 

0.48 

1.11 

0.63 

5.87 

0.12 

29.40 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Programmes for private cars total 246.6 ktoe for the transport sector, however only 5.1 ktoe is considered economic and this is for electric 
private cars. 4 of the top 10 programmes focus on light duty vehicles in freight and passenger transport, totalling 52.5 ktoe technical potential 
of which 43.9 ktoe is economic. The other significant end-use is heavy goods vehicles programmes, which presents a technical and economic 
saving potential of 33.5 ktoe by 2030. 

August 2020  

906 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The top 10 energy efficiency programmes are shown in  0. All programmes have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.4  – 3.8), 
attributed by good policy measures and the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement as seen in 
Figure A22.28. This is particularly relevant for freight transport programmes which are the most likely to succeed (score of 3.8). 

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is passenger transport public road transport (CCE of 0.48 cent/kWh). The least cost-effective 
programme is light duty vehicles which has a CCE of 19.81 cent/kWh.  

Figure A22.28  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Portugal in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A22.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

August 2020  

907 

 
 
 
 
 
 
■ Private cars. The top ESO is through the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved efficiency). The 
uptake of such vehicles is assessed as low 4% with a 39% uptake by 2030 leading to a technical energy saving of 244.3 ktoe. 

■ Light Duty Vehicles. There are 3 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles of improved vehicle efficiency. They 
present a technical saving potential totalling 50.25 ktoe by 2030. For these ESOs neither do they have a high current uptake nor high future 
uptake. 

■ Heavy Goods Vehicles. Three ESOs in heavy goods vehicles which present technical energy savings of 22.48 ktoe by 2030. This is as a 
result of a low future uptake for the ESOs in this end-use. 

Table A22.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Portugal in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

 Private cars and 
public road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

Fuel efficient tyres, C1 

 Private cars and 
public road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

 Heavy goods 
vehicles 

103.4 

73.9 

67.0 

22.2 

15.7 

12.4 

10.6 

8.3 

7.7 

6.4 

4% 

4% 

4% 

3% 

3% 

3% 

0% 

2% 

2% 

2% 

39% 

39% 

39% 

26% 

26% 

26% 

6% 

19% 

19% 

19% 

August 2020  

908 

 
 
 
 
A22.3 Recommendations 

A22.3.1 

Policy Review 

In its draft NECP, Portugal’s targets are set at 20.2 Mtoe for primary energy consumption and 17.7 Mtoe for final energy consumption in 
2030. The Commission has assessed these as very modest and low ambition targets which are not consistent with the total efforts that need 
to be undertaken at an EU level. Furthermore, the Commission Staff Working Document points out to probable inconsistencies in the 
methodology. 

Portugal’s NECP mentions multiple broad measures for achieving energy efficiency, such as: incentivising modal shift, intelligent transport 
systems, digitalisation and automation, reinforcing charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, and reviewing the legal framework on energy 
efficiency. However, the document doesn’t bring new policies or measures in addition to what was included in the 2017 NEEAP and there is 
also a lack of detailed information regarding concrete actions, estimated savings and timeframes to implement these measures and achieve 
the proposed contributions. 

A quarter of Portugal’s national emissions comes from the transport sector, making it a key sector for policy development. Current policies 
focus on electrification (aiming for hybrid cars first and fully electric vehicles in the long-term), the promotion of biofuels and new fuels such 
as hydrogen and incentivising use of public transportation. In the building sector, Portugal aims to completely reduce emissions by 2050 
through focusing on developing new technologies for energy efficiency and promoting new business models on net-zero energy buildings.  

A22.3.2 

Policy and measure analysis 

The JRC NECP policy measures catalogue lists very few specific policies and measures related to energy efficiency for Portugal and many 
of them are outdated action plans and strategies that don’t go beyond 2020. A few relevant funds are mentioned, including the 
Environmental Fund (AF), the Innovation Support Fund (RFAI) and the Energy Efficiency Fund. Furthermore, there are 4 policies measures 
listed which relate to energy efficiency: regulating the activities in the context of the public lighting infrastructure, empowering the energy 
sector with skilled professionals in the field of energy efficiency, promoting an increased penetration of more efficient equipment and 
products, and promoting the energy renovation of buildings and infrastructure in the public administration. The implementation status of all 4 
measures is unclear. 

From the policies implemented with and before NEEAP 3, Portugal’s energy efficiency measures were adjudged to be highly transferable to 
other countries and easily linked to other measure and policy packages. However, the financial measures implemented have little financial 
independence which might compromise the stability of these programmes and policies. 

August 2020  

909 

 
 
 
A22.3.3 

Recommendations 

The top 10 programmes for Portugal ranked by the technical energy saving potential are shown in Table A22.10. The corresponding top 
ESOs are presented in Table A22.11. The top energy saving programme is from the transport sector and focuses on private cars. It has the 
largest energy saving potential by some margin when compared against the next programmes as the difference is over 100 ktoe. The 
second programme relates to commercial refrigeration in the wholesale and trade sub-sector. The third and fourth programmes are from the 
residential sector and focus on hot water heating in single family houses, and the fifth programme focuses on the industrial sector regarding 
waste process heat in the petroleum refineries sub-sector. Among the top 5 programmes, 2 are evaluated as being uneconomic: reducing 
fuel consumption in private cars and RPP consumption for water heating in single-family houses. 

Existing and planned measures in Portugal’s NECP lack specificity and seem to be insufficient to achieve significant energy savings. Policies 
and measures should be designed to cover ESOs related to improved energy efficiency of private cars in the transport sector, roll-out of 
more efficient equipment in the residential sector and improved heating technologies in the industrial sector. 

Table A22.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Portugal 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical 
potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Commercial  Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Refrigeration 

Residential  Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Industrial 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Electricity - Lighting 

241.5 

131.7 

122.4 

119.9 

103.6 

97.5 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating  86.9 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

85.8 

82.1 

79.5 

10 

Industrial 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

8.92 

1.94 

10.19 

15.40 

0.23 

0.81 

13.81 

19.13 

15.53 

0.26 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

August 2020  

910 

 
 
 
Table A22.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Portugal by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential 

Residential Lighting Efficiency from Incand.  Lighting 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Residential 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Process Heating 

Hot water heating 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (4%) 

 Private cars 

120.4 

103.4 

96.6 

85.3 

73.9 

Industrial 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Furnace) 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (3%) 

Residential 

Water Heater Replacement 

Commercial 

Strip Curtain for Walk-in Freezers 

10 

Commercial 

Strip Curtain for Walk-in Coolers 

To fulfil its 2030 energy efficiency target Portugal should: 

Process Heating 

69.1 

 Private cars,  Public 
road transport 

Hot water heating 

Refrigeration 

Refrigeration 

67.0 

62.1 

61.7 

61.6 

3% 

4% 

50% 

10% 

4% 

37% 

4% 

11% 

21% 

21% 

100% 

53% 

39% 

100% 

39% 

89% 

39% 

88% 

51% 

93% 

1. Refine policy measures for the transport sector focusing on improved vehicle performance in private cars. 

2. Design ambitious policies focused on the roll out of more efficient residential appliances – specifically water heating systems, shower 
heads and lighting. 

3. Ensure sufficient focus on the reduction of waste heat in industrial sectors, with particular attention to the petroleum refinery and the 
paper, pulp and print sub-sectors. 

4. Design ambitious policies focused on the roll out of more efficient commercial refrigeration appliances. 

August 2020  

911 

 
 
 
 
 
Annex 23  Romania 

A23.1 Summary 

Table A23.1 

Summary of modelling results for Romania 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

7,679 

1,997 

7,403 

5,775 

22,853 

 2,185  

 454  

 1,842  

 834  

 5,316  

 114  

 179  

 1,779  

 148  

 2,221  

28% 

23% 

25% 

14% 

23% 

1% 

9% 

24% 

3% 

10% 

2,290 

August 2020  

912 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A23.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A23.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (1150 ktoe) 
and hot water heating (943 ktoe).   

Figure A23.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

913 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 1357 ktoe. 

Figure A23.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

914 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Hot 
water heating, space heating and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use 
fall under lighting (54 ktoe).  

Figure A23.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on residential energy end uses  

August 2020  

915 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes will have potential energy savings of 93  ktoe.  

Figure A23.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on residential sub-sectors  

August 2020  

916 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 5494.2 ktoe (28% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 7565.2 ktoe (1% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 7679.2 ktoe.    

Figure A23.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Romania 

The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Romania’s final energy consumption by 2474.31 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A23.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (66%) and electricity (21%) 
contain the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

917 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.6 

Primary energy impacts for Romania based on technical potential for residential sector 

A23.1.3 

Commercial 

Figure A23.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating, water heating 
and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the three highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (221 
ktoe), water heating (109 ktoe) and lighting (96 ktoe).   

August 2020  

918 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on commercial energy end uses 

Figure A23.8 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other commercial contains 
the highest potential over time, followed by wholesale & retail trade. In 2030, other commercial could have potential energy savings of 204 
ktoe and wholesale & retail trade of 92 ktoe. 

August 2020  

919 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on commercial sub-sectors 

Figure A23.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Water 
heating and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are water 
heating (60 ktoe) and lighting (96 ktoe). 

August 2020  

920 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on commercial energy end uses  

Figure A23.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other 
commercial contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, other commercial could provide potential energy savings of 78 ktoe. 

Figure A23.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on commercial sub-sectors  

August 2020  

921 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
August 2020  

922 

 
 
 
 
Figure A23.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1542.7 ktoe (23% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1817.4 ktoe (9% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 1996.8 ktoe. 

Figure A23.11  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Romania 

August 2020  

923 

 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Romania’s final energy consumption by 454.2 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A23.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (61.66%) and natural gas 
(29.32%) contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A23.12  Primary energy impacts for Romania based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

924 

 
 
 
 
A23.1.4 

Industrial 

Figure A23.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under process heating (1434 ktoe).   

Figure A23.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

925 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.14 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. The iron and steel industry 
and other industry contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, iron and steel industries could have potential energy savings of 419 ktoe 
and other industry of 393 ktoe. 

Figure A23.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

926 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use fall under process 
heating (1434 ktoe). 

Figure A23.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on industrial energy end uses  

Figure A23.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Petroleum 
refineries contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, iron and steel industries could have potential energy savings of 398 ktoe and other 
industry of 388 ktoe. 

August 2020  

927 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on industrial sub-sectors  

Figure A23.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 5561 ktoe (25% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 5624 ktoe (24% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 7403 ktoe.   

August 2020  

928 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Romania 

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Romania’s final energy consumption by 1842 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A23.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (29%), electricity (48%), and 
RPP (12%) contain the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

929 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.18  Primary energy impacts for Romania based on technical potential for industrial sector 

A23.1.5 

Transport  

Figure A23.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under private cars (537.79 ktoe). 

August 2020  

930 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A23.20 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, passenger transport could have potential energy savings of 679.73 ktoe. 

August 2020  

931 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A23.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Light 
duty vehicles and public road transport contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use 
are light duty vehicles (87.03 ktoe) and public road transport (55.11 ktoe). 

August 2020  

932 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on transport energy end uses  

Figure A23.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Freight transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, freight transport could have potential energy savings of 146.45 ktoe. 

August 2020  

933 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Romania based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A23.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 4920.6 ktoe (14% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 5618.8 ktoe (3% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 5774.48 ktoe.    

August 2020  

934 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.23  Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Romania 

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Romania’s final energy consumption by 834.09 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A23.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (97.75%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

935 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.24  Primary energy impacts for Romania based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

936 

 
 
 
 
A23.2 Discussion 

A23.2.1 

Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the residential sector are be shown in Table A23.2. The technical energy saving potential 
mainly lies within programmes on space heating and hot water heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A23.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Romania 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

528.4 

452.9 

353.1 

271.1 

85.8 

65.3 

60.3 

48.8 

46.2 

35.8 

11.86 

29.17 

11.84 

35.65 

5.92 

20.58 

5.97 

28.96 

11.85 

11.75 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Space heating programmes form 6 of the top 10 programmes for the residential sector and also have the largest energy saving potential, with 
1109.6 ktoe. However, only 228.2 ktoe is evaluated to be economic. Programmes on water heating for single family houses and multi-family 
apartments (totalling 838.1 ktoe) presents the second largest technical saving potential, however of these programmes, only electric (65.3 
ktoe)  is  economic  by  2030.  Natural gas space  and  water  heating  programmes  present the  largest  proportion  of technical  potential  by fuel 
source (1605.5 ktoe), but are not deemed to be economic by 2030. Space and water heating with electricity, RRP and other fuels (excluding 
RRP water heating) are deemed to be cost effective and presents an economic saving potential of 293.5 ktoe.  

August 2020  

937 

 
 
 
All programmes also have a moderate-to-good likelihood of success (scoring between 2.8 – 4.0), attributed by good policy measures and the 
ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement as can be seen in Figure A23.25. The highest score being 
for electric lighting in multi-family apartments and single-family homes (4.0) and the lowest being space heating involving natural gas and fuels 
other than RRP or electricity (2.8). 

The most cost-effective programmes are lighting programmes (CCE 1.2-1.7 cent/kWh). Of the top 10, the least cost-effective programmes are 
natural gas-based with CCEs of 11.8-29.2 cent/kWh. 

Figure A23.25  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Romania in 2030 

August 2020  

938 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A23.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 
■  Hot water heating. The 3 hot water heating ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling 369.4 ktoe. Low flow shower head and 

minimising hot and warm cloth washing have a relatively low current uptake and the remaining potential by 2030 is high.  

■  Space heating. There are 2 specific ESOs which focus on space heating energy end-use. They are Thermal curtains for windows, and 
basement wall insulation, which present 234 ktoe technical energy savings by 2030. Thermal curtains for windows ESO it should be noted 
has the largest potential of ESOs for the category because of its low current uptake (2%) and high future uptake (100%). 
Space heating and cooling. 3 ESOs from the top 10 can be attributed to saving energy within space heating and space cooling. The 
largest of which is the uptake of wall insulation. In total the technical energy saving potential for ESOs within these end-uses is 335.4 ktoe.  

Table A23.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Romania in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Thermal Curtains 

Hot water heating 

Space heating 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code)  Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling 

Wall Insulation 

Air Infiltration 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Basement Wall Insulation (R-12) 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Space heating 

10 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Space heating, Cooling 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future 
uptake (2030) 

255.2 

151.4 

137.7 

137.3 

127.0 

116.3 

109.6 

108.5 

96.3 

92.1 

0% 

60% 

2% 

0% 

11% 

11% 

1% 

10% 

11% 

11% 

48% 

93% 

42% 

40% 

44% 

55% 

100% 

100% 

44% 

44% 

August 2020  

939 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A23.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A23.4 .The technical 
energy saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating, lighting, and water heating quantified as follows: 

Table A23.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Romania 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Space Heating  59.0 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Lighting 

39.9 

Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Water Heating  29.0 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space 
Heating 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Water Heating 

Other Commercial - Other   - Space Heating 

Education - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

26.1 

25.8 

21.4 

20.3 

17.0 

13.2 

12.8 

13.46 

8.31 

0.58 

7.10 

7.70 

65.54 

18.66 

15.95 

13.46 

5.69 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Space heating  programmes form  6 of the  top  10 programmes for  the commercial  sector  with 152.7 ktoe  of  potential,  but  none  of them  is 
economic by 2030.Lighting programmes have the second largest technical and economic energy saving potential totalling to 65.7 ktoe. Space 
heating Natural gas water heating in other commercial areas is also evaluated to be economic with potential to 28.7 ktoe.  

August 2020  

940 

 
 
 
All programmes have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.3 – 4.5), attributed by good policy measures and the ESOs within these 
programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement as seen in Figure A23.26 Three space heating programmes which appear in 
Table A23.4 are replaced by lighting programmes in Figure A23.26. Lighting programmes are the most likely to succeed (score of 4.5). Natural 
gas space heating and water heating has least likelihood success scores of 3.3-3.5. 

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is natural gas water heating within other commercial areas (CCE of 0.58 cent/kWh). The 
least cost-effective programme among top 10 is natural gas space heating in other Offices with a CCE of 18.7 cent/kWh followed by electricity 
water heating in Other Commercial areas, with CCE of 15.9 cent/kWh. The lighting-based programmes have CCE’s of 7.7– 8.4 cent/kWh. 

Figure A23.26  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Romania in 2030 

August 2020  

941 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A23.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space Heating. The top ESO is electric air cold climate heat pumps with energy saving potential of 55.6 ktoe owing to low current 

uptake (2%) and high future uptake (69%)  

■  Space heating and hot water heating. 4 out of top 10 ESOs correspond to space heating and hot water heating totalling 126.4 ktoe of 

savings by 2030 with a high future uptake (74%-100%) 

■  ■ 

Lighting. Two lighting ESOs of lighting controls present a combined saving potential of 42.3 ktoe by 2030 owing to low current 

uptake (3%) and high future uptake (100%). 

Table A23.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Romania in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Space Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 
Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Space Heating, Water Heating, 
Space Cooling 

10 

High-Performance Glazing 

Space Heating, Space Cooling 

55.6 

39.0 
31.6 

31.3 

28.7 

24.4 

22.4 

20.0 

11.8 

8.5 

2% 

40% 

3% 

40% 

60% 

40% 

3% 

3% 

3% 

11% 

69% 

74% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

74% 

100% 

100% 

69% 

44% 

August 2020  

942 

 
 
 
A23.2.3 

Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown in Table A23.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies with process heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A23.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Romania 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - 
Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

Iron and Steel - RPP - Process Heating 

Other Industry - RPP - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

Iron and Steel - Electricity - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

158.7 

141.0 

91.4 

85.5 

80.3 

68.8 

61.1 

57.4 

53.1 

51.8 

0.32 

0.32 

0.31 

0.27 

0.32 

0.32 

0.32 

0.38 

0.50 

0.50 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating programmes form all the top 10 programmes for the industrial sector with technical and economic energy saving potential of 
849 ktoe. Natural gas process heating in Iron & Steel is the largest technical and economic saving potential of 158.7 ktoe.  

Process heating programmes form the top 10 energy efficiency programmes as seen in Figure A23.27.All of programmes have a high likelihood 
of success (scoring between 4). The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is natural gas process heating within petroleum refineries 
owing  to  the  large  technical  potential  (CCE  of  0.27  cent/kWh).  The  least  cost-effective  programme  is  electrical  process  heating  in  other 
industries and Iron & Steel industries with a CCE of 0.5 cent/kWh. It should be noted that all process heating programmes within industry have 
a very low CCE and are all economic. 

August 2020  

943 

 
 
 
 
Figure A23.27  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Romania in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A23.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process  heating.  All  the  top  10  ESOs  reflect  energy  saving  in  process  heating  end-use.  This  is  largely  because  of  the  high  energy 
consumption of this end-use within the sector. Boiler/Furnace control ESOs form top 7 measures totalling 664.3 ktoe technical energy savings 
by 2030. 125.5 ktoe can be saved through by heat recovery as can be seen by ESOs 7 and 10. Whilst the current uptake of the top 10 is not 
low, the future uptake is anticipated to be higher and in and, in some cases above 90%. 

August 2020  

944 

 
 
 
 
 
ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Table A23.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Romania in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process 
Control (Furnace) 
Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery 
(Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

10 

Process Heat Recovery to Preheat 
Makeup Water 

A23.2.4 

Transport 

129.9 

105.1 

95.0 

90.7 

90.7 

77.6 

75.3 

67.1 

50.6 

50.2 

50% 

37% 

30% 

50% 

50% 

30% 

11% 

59% 

39% 

45% 

99% 

89% 

88% 

92% 

92% 

79% 

78% 

99% 

89% 

90% 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A23.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes for private cars, light duty vehicles, heavy good vehicles and public transport, quantified as 
follows: 

August 2020  

945 

 
 
 
 
Table A23.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Romania 

Programme Name 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

533.3 

128.7 

86.1 

54.5 

23.5 

4.5 

2.0 

0.7 

0.6 

0.2 

25.38 

14.00 

5.85 

0.45 

21.95 

2.88 

1.26 

7.90 

0.11 

29.64 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Programmes for private cars total 537.8 ktoe for the transport sector, however only 4.5 ktoe is considered economic and this is for electric 
private cars. 4 of the top 10 programmes focus on light duty vehicles in freight and passenger transport totalling to 110.5 ktoe technical potential 
of which 87 ktoe is economic by 2030.  The other significant end-use is heavy goods vehicles programmes, which presents a technical and 
economic saving potential of 130.7 ktoe by 2030.  

All programmes have a high likelihood to succeed (score 3.8-4.0) owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme 
and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. Gasoline/Diesel heavy good vehicles has highest likelihood of success 
(score – 4.00) but is one of the least cost-effective (CCE of 14 cent/kWh). Gasoline/Diesel public road transport is the most cost-effective with 
CCE of 0.45 cent/kWh. 

August 2020  

946 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A23.28  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Romania in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A23.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■ Private cars. The top ESO is through the uptake of improved energy efficiency private cars (3%,4% and 5% improved efficiency) totalling 
to 582.7 ktoe energy saving potential by 2030 owing to low current uptake (12%) and high future uptake (100%).  

■ Light Duty Vehicles. There are 3 specific ESOs which represent savings in light duty vehicles. They present a technical saving potential 
totalling  108.7  ktoe  by  2030.  These  ESOs  have  a  low  current  uptake  (7%)  when  compared  to  private  cars,  however  the  future  uptake  is 
anticipated to be greater at 70%. 

■ Heavy Goods Vehicles. They form 4 of the top 10 ESOs and present technical energy savings of 111.2 ktoe by 2030. This is as a result of 
a low future uptake (40%) for the ESOs in this end-use. 

August 2020  

947 

 
 
 
 
Table A23.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Romania in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private 
car (5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private 
car (3%) 
Improved vehicle efficiency private 
car (4%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV 
(6%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV 
(4%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(32.5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(30%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV 
(3%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(25%) 

 Private cars 

 Private cars and public 
road transport 

 Private cars 

 Light duty vehicles 

 Light duty vehicles 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

 Light duty vehicles 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(20%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

231.3 

186.1 

165.2 

48.0 

33.9 

33.5 

31.1 

26.8 

25.9 

20.7 

12% 

12% 

12% 

7% 

7% 

4% 

4% 

7% 

4% 

4% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

70% 

70% 

40% 

40% 

70% 

40% 

40% 

A23.3 Recommendations 

A23.3.1 

Policy Review 

Romania’s primary energy consumption has been historically relatively stable since 2005, with two steep-drops in 2008 and 2012. Short-
term estimates from the draft NECP showed a steep increase in energy consumption between 2017 and 2020 (from 32.4 to 43.0 Mtoe), 

August 2020  

948 

 
 
 
followed by a slow decrease to 36.4 Mtoe level in 2030. The post-2020 fall is reflecting a savings rate as provided by the Energy Efficiency 
Directive 

As the Romanian 2030 target for primary energy consumption is 17% higher than the 2017 level, the overall ambition of the energy efficiency 
dimension has been labelled as very low by the European Commission. The draft NECP for Romania provides reasoning that the energy 
consumption growth is a result of an increase in industrial production and in living standards.  

Transport sector and buildings are among the sectors indicated as focus areas by the Romanian official documents. Both building stock and 
vehicle fleet are old and have poor energy performance. 90% of buildings in Romania have been built before 1989 and have specific energy 
demand between 150 and 400 kWh/m2/yr, while 79% of cars are older than 11 years and the share is rising.  

A23.3.2 

Policies and Measure analysis  

Draft NECP for Romania lists 29 energy efficiency measures that are expected to influence energy consumption levels. Only half of those 
are already implemented and only two of those are economic or fiscal (further two economic measures are planned).  

There are six policies labelled in the NECP as cross-cutting, but most of them are planned. Those cross-sectoral measures are not fully 
economy-wide, rather addressing more than one sector, like supporting ESCOs  and energy performance contracts (affecting commercial 
and industrial sectors) or support for combined heat and power generation (affecting mainly heavy industry and buildings), or regulations 
regarding energy management systems (affecting commerce and industries).   

15 policies listed in draft NECP targets residential sector, nine of those also target the commercial sector, with no policies targeting 
commerce specifically. There is one industrial policy implemented on energy performance certification of installations and products. Four 
measures are already implemented to tackle transport sector energy efficiency and they are focusing on planning transport network and its 
infrastructure. 

Overall, Romanian measures score highly in persistency and transferability, as well as on avoidance of negative side-effects. The same 
multidimensional analysis of the policies noted room for improvement in suitability to overcome barriers and links to other policy packages. It 
seems that this characteristic stems from the country focusing on transposition of European directives, with little adjustments and little 
complementary measures. 

A23.3.3 

Recommendations 

Table A23.10 below shows top 10 technical energy saving programmes, while the following Table A23.11 shows top 10 Energy Saving 
Opportunities (ESOs) for Romania. The majority of programmes ranked as top 10 are targeting the residential sector, with single family 
houses space heating ranked second and hot water heating ranked third. Residential sector programmes, including also multi-family 

August 2020  

949 

 
 
 
 
apartments’ space and hot water heating, have total technical savings potential of 1605.5 ktoe, which constitutes 3/5 of the potential of all 
top 10 programmes.  

Transport sector has the highest potential in the top 10 programmes, with 662 ktoe of potential divided between private cars and heavy 
goods vehicles. Significant potential is visible also in the industrial sector, where process heating in iron and steel, chemicals and 
petrochemicals and other industries sum up to 391.1 ktoe.  

Many of the programmes with the highest potential, including the top 5, are currently not economic. Residential and transport sectors do not 
have incentives to invest in more energy-efficient assets. The situation is different for programmes in industrial sector, where additional 
investments should be economically feasible. 

Opportunities that ranked as having the highest potential are correlated with the top programmes, with top addressing space heating 
demand reduction by getting homes net-zero ready. The other residential end-use with significant potential, hot water heating, may be 
realised with measures like installation of low-flow shower heads which is, number five on the list. Increasing cars efficiency has been at the 
core of opportunities ranked as numbers two, three and four. The one industrial opportunity that made it to the top 10 is installation of boiler 
monitoring equipment to increase their efficiency. 

Table A23.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Romania 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical 
potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Residential 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Residential 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Industrial 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Industrial 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

533.3 

528.4 

452.9 

353.1 

271.1 

158.7 

141.0 

128.7 

Industrial 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

91.4 

CCE 
(EUR 
cents/k
Wh) 

25.38 

11.86 

29.17 

11.84 

35.65 

0.32 

0.32 

14.00 

0.31 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

August 2020  

950 

 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical 
potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE 
(EUR 
cents/k
Wh) 

Is this programme economic 
by 2030? 

10 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

86.1 

5.85 

Yes 

Table A23.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Romania by 2030 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Residential 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating  255.2 

Coun
try 
rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (3%) 

 Private cars,  Public road 
transport 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (4%) 

 Private cars 

Residential  Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems  Hot water heating 

Residential 

Thermal Curtains 

Space heating 

Residential 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above 
code) 

Space heating, Hot water 
heating, Cooling 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Residential  Wall Insulation 

10 

Residential 

Air Infiltration 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

231.3 

186.1 

165.2 

151.4 

137.7 

137.3 

129.9 

127.0 

116.3 

0% 

12% 

12% 

12% 

60% 

2% 

0% 

50% 

11% 

11% 

100% 

48% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

93% 

40% 

99% 

44% 

Romanian authorities should carry on with implementation of the policies indicated in the draft NECP, giving priority to: 

1.  Single family and multi-family housing should receive incentives to reduce their heating demand for both space heating and hot water. 

These efforts could be integrated as they are overlapping in scope. 

2.  Low-carbon vehicles should be encouraged with fiscal measures that would make replacing cars and trucks economical 

August 2020  

951 

 
 
 
 
3.  Increase effectiveness of energy efficiency audits for industry. Actioning on identified savings potential should be incentivised by offering 

grants, loans or mandatory reporting on actions related to audit recommendations. 

August 2020  

952 

 
 
 
 
Annex 24  Slovakia 

A24.1 Summary 

Table A24.1 

Summary of modelling results for Slovakia 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

2057.0 

1317.8 

4941.4 

2464.0 

10780.3 

 684  

 298  

 1,084  

 157  

 2,224  

 116  

 180  

 1,040  

 116  

 1,451  

33% 

23% 

22% 

6% 

21% 

6% 

14% 

21% 

5% 

13% 

748 

August 2020  

953 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A24.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A24.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating (369 
ktoe) and space heating (312 ktoe).   

Figure A24.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on residential energy end uses 

Figure A24.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 470 ktoe. 

August 2020  

954 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on residential sub-sectors 

Figure A24.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Hot 
water heating and space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
hot water heating (58 ktoe) and space heating (56 ktoe).  

August 2020  

955 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on residential energy end uses  

Figure A24.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 84 ktoe. 

August 2020  

956 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on residential sub-sectors  

August 2020  

957 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1373.4 ktoe (33% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1940.7 ktoe (6% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 2057.0 ktoe.    

Figure A24.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Slovakia  

The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Slovakia’s final energy consumption by 783.08 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

958 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (77%) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

Figure A24.6 

Primary energy impacts for Slovakia based on technical potential for residential sector  

August 2020  

959 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A24.1.3 

Commercial 

Figure A24.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating and water 
heating contain the highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space 
heating (161 ktoe) and water heating (66 ktoe).   

Figure A24.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

960 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale & retail 
trade and the education sector contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, wholesale & retail trade will have potential savings of 
128 ktoe and the education sector of 74 ktoe. 

Figure A24.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on commercial sub-sectors 

Figure A24.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Water heating, space heating, and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the three highest potential economic savings by 
end use are space heating (73 ktoe), water heating (42 ktoe) and lighting (42 ktoe).   

August 2020  

961 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on commercial energy end uses  

Figure A24.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale & 
retail trade and the education sector contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of wholesale and 
retail trade are of 88 ktoe, followed by the education sector with savings of 45 ktoe. 

August 2020  

962 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on commercial sub-sectors  

August 2020  

963 

 
 
 
 
Figure A24.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1019.5 ktoe (23% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1137.7 ktoe (14% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 1317.8 ktoe. 

Figure A24.11  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Slovakia  

August 2020  

964 

 
 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Slovakia’s final energy consumption by 298.3 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A24.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (59.57%) and natural gas 
(32.87%) contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A24.12  Primary energy impacts for Slovakia based on technical potential for commercial sector  

A24.1.4 

Industrial 

Figure A24.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under process heating (816 ktoe).  

August 2020  

965 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A24.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. The iron and 
steel industry contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, iron and steel could have a potential savings of 436.3 ktoe. 

August 2020  

966 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on industrial sub-sectors 

Figure A24.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use fall under process 
heating (816 ktoe).   

August 2020  

967 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A24.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. The iron and 
steel industry contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of iron and steel could reach 410 ktoe. 

August 2020  

968 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on industrial sub-sectors  

Figure A24.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 3857 ktoe (22% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 3902 ktoe (21% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 4941 ktoe.    

August 2020  

969 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Slovakia  

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Slovakia’s final energy consumption by 1084.3 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A24.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (23%) and electricity (52%) 
contain the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

970 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.18  Primary energy impacts for Slovakia based on technical potential for industrial sector  

A24.1.5 

Transport  

Figure A24.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Heavy goods vehicles contain 
the highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use fall under heavy goods vehicles 
(74.32 ktoe).   

August 2020  

971 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A24.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Freight transport 
contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, freight transport could have potential energy savings of 89.91 ktoe. 

August 2020  

972 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A24.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use fall under heavy 
good vehicles (74.32 ktoe).  

August 2020  

973 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on transport energy end uses  

Figure A24.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Freight transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of freight transport are 89.91ktoe. 

August 2020  

974 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovakia based on transport sub-sectors  

Figure A24.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 2306.76 ktoe (6% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 2348.43 ktoe (5% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 2464.02 ktoe.    

August 2020  

975 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.23  Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Slovakia 

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Slovakia’s final energy consumption by 157.27 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A24.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (95.62%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

976 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A24.24  Primary energy impacts for Slovakia based on technical potential for transport sector  

A24.2 Discussion 

A24.2.1 

Residential 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A24.2 for the residential sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in hot water heating and space heating end-use programmes. 

August 2020  

977 

 
 
 
 
Table A24.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Slovakia 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

Single family houses - Other - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Space heating 

212.0 

170.7 

96.4 

82.4 

30.5 

27.0 

15.8 

14.8 

10.6 

7.6 

16.32 

6.44 

20.17 

6.41 

3.20 

10.87 

3.22 

2.09 

14.90 

5.32 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

As Table A24.2 shows, hot water heating end-use programmes account for 5 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes, and have 
the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 667.8 ktoe in of total savings, of which hot water heating accounts 
for 360.8 ktoe (54%) of that total. However, only 52.4 ktoe (7.8% of the total) will be economic by 2030. This is largely due to natural gas 
powered hot water heating in single family houses not being economic by 2030, as the programme makes up 85.4% (308.4 ktoe) of hot 
water heating savings. The end-use with the second highest potential technical saving is space heating programmes. They make up 307 
ktoe (46%) of the total savings, although of this only 53.9 ktoe (8.1% as a percentage of the top 10) is predicicted to be economic by 2030.  

When we look at the top technical energy efficiency programmes, all programmes have a moderate likelihood of success, (2.9-3.3), owing to 
the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. 

There is a clear disparity between cost-effectiveness of programmes. Because of this, electric space heating in single family houses and 
electricity hot water heating in multifamily apartments do not make the top technical energy efficiency programmes despite featuring in the 
top 10 for potential programmes. Only hot water heating programmes with substantial technical potential make the list, but high CCEs (16.3 
– 20.2 cent/kWh) mean that they score relatively low for cost effectiveness (1.9-2.5). This is due to far better CCE (3.2-6.4 cent/kWh), 
resulting in high cost effectiveness scores (4.0-4.5). 

August 2020  

978 

 
 
 
Figure A24.25  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Slovakia in 2030 

August 2020  

979 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A24.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Hot Water Heating. Hot water heating programmes account for 5 out of the top 10 ESOs for the residential sector. Out of a total 

technical potential energy savings by 2030 of 378.8 ktoe, hot water heating ESOs make up 177.2 (46.8%). Out of the 5 ESOs, only 
wastewater heat recovery systems have a change in uptake less than 77% (33%), while both low-flow shower heads and minimising hot 
and warm clothes washes have changes in uptake greater or equal to 90%. 

■  Space Heating. Three of the top 10 ESOs are targeted at space heating and cooling programme, totalling technical potential energy 
savings of 99.8 ktoe equating to 26.3% of total savings by 2030.This is largely due to moderate increases in uptake between now and 
2030 (33-40%). 

■  Space Heating and Hot Water Heating. Two top 10 ESOs are space heating and hot water heating programmes, with technical 

potential energy savings of 101.7 ktoe equating to 26.8% of total savings by 2030. This is largely due to its relatively low current uptake 
(20%) and relatively high future uptake (53-68%). 

Table A24.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Slovakia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Wastewater Heat Recovery 
Systems 
Energy Efficient Homes (20% 
above code) 

Thermal Curtains 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes 
Wash 

Hot water heating, Space 
heating 

Hot water heating 

Space heating, Hot water 
heating, Cooling 

Space heating 

Hot water heating 

Wall Insulation 

Space heating, Cooling 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

Air Infiltration 

Space heating, Cooling 

DHW Tank Insulation 

Hot water heating 

10 

Condensing Gas Water Heaters 

 Hot water heating 

65.2 

50.6 

36.5 

36.3 

33.8 

33.7 

33.4 

29.9 

29.9 

30.5 

20% 

20% 

0% 

2% 

1% 

39% 

10% 

39% 

20% 

20% 

68% 

53% 

40% 

42% 

100% 

72% 

100% 

78% 

97% 

97% 

August 2020  

980 

 
 
 
A24.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A24.4 for the commercial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in space heating, water heating and lighting end-use programmes. 

Table A24.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Slovakia 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Education - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Water Heating 

Education - Electricity - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Water Heating 

Education - Electricity - Lighting 

Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Education - Natural Gas - Water Heating 

42.2 

22.4 

20.0 

15.9 

12.8 

11.1 

10.6 

10.3 

9.5 

8.4 

4.00 
3.18 
4.81 
35.88 
0.79 
35.78 
156.65 
5.08 
7.53 
5.39 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Space heating end-use programmes form 5 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and have 
the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 163.3 ktoe in of total savings, of which space heating accounts for 
101.1 ktoe (61.9%) of that total. Of space heating, 64.6 ktoe (63.4%) will be economic by 2030. The end-use with the second highest 
potential technical saving is water heating. Water heating programmes make up 31.9 ktoe (19.5%) of the total savings, although only 13.6 
ktoe is expected to be economic by 2030. lighting. Lighting programmes make up 30.3 ktoe (18.6%) of the total savings, and all measures 
are expected to be economic by 2030. 

August 2020  

981 

 
 
 
All programmes have a high likelihood of success (3.3 – 4.3), owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and 
high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. While space and water heating programmes account for a large amount 
of technical potential, the high CCE (3.3-4.3) makes them relatively costly to implement. Because of this, three space heating and two water 
heating programmes with a lower technical potential are not included in the top technical energy efficiency programmes, shown in Figure 
A24.26. These are replaced by cooking and lighting end use programmes which, while they have a low energy indicator (0.3-0.4), are very 
likely to succeed (4.3). 

The cooking with natural gas in education programme is also the most cost-effective, with a CCE of 0.42 cent/kWh. Lighting programmes 
have the lowest cost-effectiveness among top-ten programmes in Slovakia, with CCEs of 4.8-5.2 cent/kWh. 

Figure A24.26  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Slovakia in 2030 

August 2020  

982 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A24.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space Heating and Hot Water Heating. Space heating and hot water heating programmes account for 4 out of the top 10 ESOs for the 
commercial sector. Out of a total technical potential energy savings by 2030 of 188.3 ktoe, space heating and hot water heating ESOs 
make up 87.6 ktoe (46.5%). New construction ESOs both have a predicted increase in uptake of 33%, while intuitively the ESO with 
greater efficiency increases have higher technical potential energy savings. The remaining space heating programmes have a larger 
increase in uptake. 

■  Space Heating. Although only 1 top 10 ESO is a space heating programme, it is the largest, with technical potential energy savings of 
39.8 ktoe equating to 21.1% of total savings by 2030. This is largely due to its low current uptake (3%) and high future uptake (70%). 
■  Lighting. Lighting end-uses make up 2 of the top 10 ESOs, with combined technical potential energy savings of 25.7 ktoe equating to 

13.6% of total savings by 2030. This is largely due to its low current uptake (3%) and high future uptake (100%). 

Table A24.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Slovakia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Space Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced)  Space Heating, Water Heating 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Lighting 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Space Heating, Water Heating, 
Space Cooling 

39.8 

25.9 

22.9 

22.5 

20.8 

16.2 

13.5 

12.3 

9.5 

10 

Ground Source Heatpump 

Space Heating, Space Cooling 

5.0 

3% 

29% 

3% 

29% 

60% 

29% 

3% 

3% 

3% 

3% 

70% 

62% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

62% 

100% 

100% 

69% 

43% 

August 2020  

983 

 
 
 
A24.2.3 

Industrial 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A24.6 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in the process heating and machine drives end-uses across different sub-sectors. For example,  

Table A24.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Slovakia 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

132.3 

Iron and Steel - Other   - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Electricity - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Electricity - Machine drives 

Iron and Steel - Coal - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

70.8 

63.9 

49.7 

46.3 

32.6 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

30.8 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

26.9 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

24.9 

Non-ferrous Metals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

24.4 

0.25 

0.19 

0.40 

1.43 

0.25 

0.25 

0.21 

0.24 

0.25 

0.25 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating form 9 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and has the highest savings of 
any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 502.7 ktoe in of total savings, of which process heating accounts for 453 ktoe (90.1%). Of 
that 453 ktoe, 100% is predicted to be economic by 2030, as are all other end-uses. The end-use with the second highest potential technical 
saving is machine drives, making up 49.7 ktoe (9.9%) of the total savings  

Figure A24.27 shows that two more machine drives-based programmes have made it into the top 10 energy efficiency programmes at the 
expense of two process heating programmes.  Figure A24.27 shows a slight negative corrolation between likelihood of success and cost-
effectiveness, although all programmes have a high likelihood of success (3.5 – 3.6), owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up 
within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. However, process heating end-use 
programmes are far more cost effective than machine drives, which can be attributed to differences in CCE. Process heating programmes 

August 2020  

984 

 
 
 
have a CCE of 0.2 – 0.4 cent/kWh, resulting in a cost-effectiveness score of 3.6 – 4.3. Due to the high likelihood of success of all 
programmes, the iron and steel natural gas process heating provides the most viable single programme. It has high technical potential 
savings (132.3 ktoe) paired with a high cost-effectiveness score (4.1) and makes up 26.3% of total technical potential savings expected to be 
economic by 2030. 

Figure A24.27  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Slovakia in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A24.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process Heating. Process heating programmes account for 10 out of the top 10 ESOs for the industrial sector. The Total potential 

energy savings are 504 ktoe, with flue gas monitoring ESOs accounting for 151 ktoe between them. While current uptake is high (30-
50%), future uptake is also high (89%-99%), which explains the high technical potential energy savings. This pattern is reasonably 
consistent across all top 10 ESOs, with only uptake figures of exhaust gas heat recovery and combustion optimization increasing by 
more than 60%. 

August 2020  

985 

 
 
 
 
Table A24.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Slovakia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Furnace) 

Boiler right sizing 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Combustion Optimization (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

10 

Preventative Furnace Maintenance 

Process Heating 

84.9 

66.1 

57.5 

52.1 

52.1 

51.9 

37.5 

36.1 

33.3 

32.5 

50% 

30% 

37% 

50% 

50% 

11% 

59% 

30% 

30% 

48% 

99% 

89% 

89% 

93% 

93% 

78% 

99% 

80% 

99% 

99% 

A24.2.4 

Transport 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A24.8 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in the heavy goods vehicles and private cars end-use programmes 

August 2020  

986 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A24.8 

Top programmes by technical energy savings potential for transport sector in Slovakia in 2030 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

73.2 

41.7 

18.5 

15.5 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport 

4.9 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

1.8 

1.1 

0.3 

0.2 

0.1 

4.96 

15.83 

6.59 

6.61 

0.27 

2.04 

0.50 

0.07 

10.19 

10.23 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Heavy goods vehicle end-use programmes form 2 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and 
have the highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 157.3 ktoe in of total savings, of which HGV programmes 
account for 74.3 ktoe (%) of that total. However, 0.0% of that will be economic by 2030, as the gasoline/diesel private car programme will not 
be economic by 2030, yet the programme makes up 51.8% (1207.5 ktoe) of total savings. The end-use with the second highest potential 
technical saving, and highest economically viable technical potential savings is heavy goods vehicles. They makes up 737.4 TOE/year 
(31.6%) of the total savings. Equally, all measures are expected to be economic by 2030.  

As can be seen in Figure A24.28, all the top energy efficiency programmes have a high likelihood of success (2.8-3.5), owing to the low 
complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. Because of 

August 2020  

987 

 
 
 
 
the low technical potential, electric light duty vehicles for both passengers, and electric public road transport for passengers does not make 
the top energy efficiency programmes. There is also a clear split between gasoline/diesel powered private cars and the rest of the top 
measures when it comes to cost-efficiency. Private gasoline/diesel car programmes have a CCE of 15.83 cent/kWh, substantially higher 
than the range of the other 6 (0.5-6.6 cent/kWh). This is reflected in its relative cost efficiency score of 0.0. This is in stark contrast with the 
other major end-use programme – gasoline heavy goods vehicles for freight – which has a cost effectiveness score of 3.4, due to a CCE of 
4.96 cent/kWh.  

Figure A24.28  Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Slovakia in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A24.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Heavy goods vehicles. The 5 ESOs relating to HGVs have the largest technical energy savings (72.1 ktoe). Of those, there is a positive 
correlation between level of efficiency gain and technical potential energy savings. This is a pattern which can be observed throughout 

August 2020  

988 

 
 
 
 
the ESOs, and it not confined to the HGV end use programmes. High technical potential energy savings can be attributed to low current 
uptake (4%) as uptake is not expected to be particularly high by 2030 (40%). 

■  Private Cars. The 2 private car end-use ESO programmes account for 29.9 ktoe, and gains are attributed to low current uptake (2%). 

However, gains are less that would perhaps be suspected, owing to poor (18%) future uptake.  

■  Light Duty Vehicle. The 2 ESOs on this end use category presents a total technical saving potential of 25.4 ktoe, due to low current and 

high future uptake.  

Table A24.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Slovakia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  19.1 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  17.7 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

17.4 

14.9 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  14.7 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

 Private cars and 
public road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

14.6 

12.4 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (15%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  11.8 

 Light duty vehicles 
 Heavy goods vehicles  8.8 

10.5 

4% 

4% 

2% 

7% 

4% 

2% 

2% 

4% 

7% 

4% 

40% 

40% 

18% 

70% 

40% 

18% 

18% 

40% 

70% 

40% 

August 2020  

989 

 
 
 
 
A24.3 Recommendations  

A24.3.1 

Policy review  

Slovakia’s draft NECP was submitted by Ministry of Economy in January 2019. The draft builds on the Slovak Energy Policy outlining 
objectives and priorities up to 2035 with an outlook to 2050. Figures submitted in the draft forecast a stable primary energy consumption will 
remain relatively stable, hovering around 16 Mtoe since 2007, with latest historic data at 16.1 Mtoe in 2017 and forecasts for 2020 and 2030 
at 16.4 and 16.2 respectively. European Commission commented that Slovakian authorities could increase their ambition of energy 
efficiency goals in the final NECP to align Slovak goals with the with EU-wide goals. 

The plan for shaping the future of Slovakia’s energy efficiency policies is based on ideas around continuing and expanding existing 
programmes. The draft NECP brings forward also measures to organise an efficient mobility system in an effort to promote public transport, 
multimodality, but without detailed information on how the measures would operate in practice. 

Draft NECP’s focus on buildings and transport is in line with recommendations from the Commission and EU Semester analysis and 
Slovakia has some tools in place to address the situation in these sectors. But the measures used lack ambition and determination to reduce 
energy consumption significantly. 

A24.3.2 

Policies and Measure analysis  

There is a total of 78 energy-efficiency policies listed in the draft NECP document, and even though the general strategy is presented as a 
continuation of existing approach, 15 of those measures were yet to be implemented. Many of those planned measures are not very well 
conceptualised, being rather placeholders for targeted financial transfers, like “Group of measures for industry – EUR 2.47 billion”. Apart 
from those for industry, there are separate “groups of measures” for buildings, public sector, transport, appliances. 

Out of the 63 implemented measures, almost half (34) have an economic dimension associated with them. These economic measures are 
spread across multiple sectors, but they do not constitute 34 areas of support, as many of the measures share the same mechanisms and 
they are differentiated by source of financing. For example, “Improvement of thermal properties of buildings” is listed as six separate 
measures as it has so many sources of funding. For that reason, Oddysey-MURE recognises only 12 policies for Slovakia. 

From the sectoral perspective, there are relatively few cross-sectoral policies, and these tend not have any economic dimension, rather 
being focused on education and information (like awareness campaign targeting youth and education of energy auditors). Using the self-
reported numbers there is 7 cross-sectoral measures and 31 programmes addressing buildings (residential and commercial, including 
public). Industry sector has 10 dedicated policies, 7 of which are economic, while transport has 12 with 7 economic. Again, it is worth noting 
that some of the self-reported energy-efficiency policies are rather adjacent, e.g. “Construction and upgrade of transport infrastructure”.  

August 2020  

990 

 
 
 
Slovakian energy-efficiency measures do not score very highly, but the authorities are seen as competent and experienced in existing 
programmes operation and the measures are seen as persistent. At the same time, policies lack ease and stability of re-financing and are 
not found to be very cost-efficient.  

A24.3.3 

Recommendations  

Slovakia’s top 10 energy-efficiency programmes and Energy Saving Opportunities (ESOs) are ranked in Table A24.10 and Table A24.11. 
Residential sector has been ranked as having the highest technical potential for savings with programmes regarding hot water and space 
heating in single-family houses being the top 2. Same end-uses for multi-family apartments have been ranked as number 4 and 5.  

Process heating efficiency in iron and steel industrial sub-sector would be the programme scoring the highest potential savings if it wasn’t 
spread across different fuels. Total potential in that area is 313 ktoe, with natural gas alone being ranked at third place at 132 ktoe. Apart 
from the process heating, also machine drives efficiency in iron and steel sector made it to the top 10 of programmes. In between multiple 
residential and industrial programmes there is one transport-related programme targeting heavy goods vehicles, ranked sixth, with 73.2 ktoe 
of savings potential.  

Industrial and transport programmes have been flagged as economic, while the residential hot-water and space heating are uneconomic. 
This means that fiscal measures are needed to make the energy transition attractive to the owners and users. 

Three opportunities related to monitoring and control of industrial boilers and furnaces made the top 10 ESOs list, accounting to total of 209 
ktoe. Boiler sizing and load management add another 105 ktoe to the potential of industrial opportunities. Exhaust gas heat recovery has a 
potential of 52 ktoe, which brings the total for industrial opportunities in top 10 to 403 ktoe.  

Table A24.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Slovakia 

Country rank  Sector 

Programme Name 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

August 2020  

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Industrial 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

96.4 

Residential  Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

82.4 

Technical 
potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

212.0 

170.7 

132.3 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

16.32 

6.44 

0.25 

20.17 

6.41 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

991 

 
 
 
 
Country rank  Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical 
potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

73.2 

Industrial 

Iron and Steel - Other   - Process Heating 

Industrial 

Iron and Steel - Electricity - Process Heating 

Industrial 

Iron and Steel - Electricity - Machine drives 

Industrial 

Iron and Steel - Coal - Process Heating 

70.8 

63.9 

49.7 

46.3 

4.96 

0.19 

0.40 

1.43 

0.25 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Table A24.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Slovakia by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Residential  Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Industrial 

Advanced Heating and Process 
Control (Furnace) 

Industrial  Boiler right sizing 

Hot water heating, Space 
heating 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

Industrial  Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

Industrial 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery 
(Furnace) 

Residential 

Wastewater Heat Recovery 
Systems 

Process Heating 

Hot water heating 

84.9 

66.1 

65.2 

57.5 

52.1 

52.1 

51.9 

50.6 

50% 

30% 

20% 

37% 

50% 

50% 

11% 

20% 

100% 

99% 

89% 

68% 

89% 

100% 

93% 

93% 

August 2020  

992 

 
 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

9 

10 

Commerci
al 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate 
Heat Pumps 

Space Heating 

Industrial 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

39.8 

37.5 

3% 

59% 

78% 

53% 

Too align with EU-wide goals in energy-efficiency, Slovakia should implement the following recommendations: 

1.  Continue and expand support for building net-zero ready single- and multi-family buildings.  

2.  Increase the ambition and performance thresholds in the existing policies targeting retrofitting buildings in residential sector to make the 

measures more cost effective and providing better value for money. 

3.  Encourage steel sector to invest in their plants by providing stable long-term strategy for the sector (as the programmes may be 

considered economically feasible, subsidies should not be necessary. Mandatory energy audits regulation is already implemented since 
2014). 

August 2020  

993 

 
 
 
 
Annex 25  Slovenia 

A25.1 Summary 

Table A25.1 

Summary of modelling results for Slovenia 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

1,002 

399 

1,206 

1,686 

4,293 

 299  

 80  

 311  

 139  

 829  

 170  

 43  

 300  

 65  

 578  

30% 

20% 

26% 

8% 

19% 

17% 

11% 

25% 

4% 

13% 

394 

August 2020  

994 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A25.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A25.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating (189 
ktoe) and space heating (96 ktoe).   

Figure A25.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

995 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 224 ktoe. 

Figure A25.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on residential sub-sectors 

Figure A25.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Hot 
water heating and space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
hot water heating (60 ktoe) and space heating (96 ktoe).   

August 2020  

996 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on residential energy end uses  

Figure A25.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 128 ktoe. 

August 2020  

997 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on residential sub-sectors  

August 2020  

998 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 702.6 ktoe (30% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 831.8 ktoe (17% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 1002.1 ktoe. 

Figure A25.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Slovenia  

The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Slovenia’s final energy consumption by 347.41 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

999 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (39.31%), natural gas (28.41%) 
and RPP (26.57%) sector contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A25.6 

Primary energy impacts for Slovenia based on technical potential for residential sector  

August 2020  

1000 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A25.1.3 

Commercial 

Figure A25.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (38 ktoe) and 
water heating (17 ktoe).   

Figure A25.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

1001 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.8 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Private and public 
offices and wholesale and retail trade contain the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, private and public offices have a potential 
savings of 24 ktoe and wholesale and retail have potential energy savings of 25 ktoe. 

Figure A25.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on commercial sub-sectors 

Figure A25.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Water heating, space heating, and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by 
end use are lighting (15 ktoe) and water heating (12 ktoe).   

August 2020  

1002 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on commercial energy end uses  

Figure A25.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of wholesale and retail trade are of 15 ktoe, 
followed by private and public office with 10 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1003 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on commercial sub-sectors  

August 2020  

1004 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 319.5 ktoe (20% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 356 ktoe (11% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 399.1 ktoe. 

Figure A25.11  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Slovenia  

August 2020  

1005 

 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Slovenia’s final energy consumption by 79.6 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A25.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (69%), RPP (9%) and other 
(14%) sector contains the highest technical potential. 

Figure A25.12  Primary energy impacts for Slovenia based on technical potential for commercial sector  

August 2020  

1006 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A25.1.4 

Industrial 

Figure A25.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential energy savings over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (186 ktoe) and 
machine drives (78 ktoe).   

Figure A25.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A25.14 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry 
contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, other industry has a potential savings of (63 ktoe) and non-ferrous metals have 
potential energy savings of 47 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1007 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on industrial sub-sectors 

Figure A25.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (186 ktoe) and machine drives (78 ktoe).   

August 2020  

1008 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on industrial energy end uses 

Figure A25.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of other industry are (63 ktoe), followed by non-ferrous 
metals (46 ktoe). 

August 2020  

1009 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on industrial sub-sectors  

Figure A25.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 896 ktoe (26% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 896 ktoe (25% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 1206 ktoe.    

August 2020  

1010 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Slovenia  

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Slovenia’s final energy consumption by 311 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A25.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (23%), electricity (61%), RPP 
(5%) sectors contains the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

1011 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.18  Primary energy impacts for Slovenia based on technical potential for industrial sector  

A25.1.5 

Transport  

Figure A25.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the 
highest potential energy savings over time, followed by heavy goods vehicles. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use 
are private cars (71 ktoe) and heavy goods vehicles (44 ktoe).   

August 2020  

1012 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A25.20 provides a breakdown of the country level technical energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential savings over time. In 2030, passport transport will have potential savings of 90 ktoe, followed by 
freight transport with 49 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1013 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A25.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe of (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Private cars and heavy goods vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end 
use are heavy good vehicles (44 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (14 ktoe).  However, in 2031, the potential economic savings of private cars 
increase to 81 ktoe, while heavy goods vehicles offer 47 ktoe in potential savings.  

August 2020  

1014 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on transport energy end uses  

Figure A25.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, potential economic energy savings of freight transport is of 45 ktoe, followed by 
passenger transport with 21 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1015 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Slovenia based on transport sub-sectors  

Figure A25.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 1546.58 ktoe (8% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 1620.79 ktoe (4% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 1685.98 ktoe.    

August 2020  

1016 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.23  Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Slovenia  

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Slovenia’s final energy consumption by 139.40 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A25.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (96.72%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

1017 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A25.24  Primary energy impacts for Slovenia based on technical potential for transport sector  

August 2020  

1018 

 
 
 
 
A25.2  Discussion 

A25.2.1 

Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown Table A25.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating and hot water heating, as well as single-family houses, quantified as 
follows: 

Table A25.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Slovenia 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

48.7 

47.7 

40.1 

28.8 

24.1 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  17.6 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

15.0 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating 

12.5 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

11.1 

10.6 

12.67 

12.46 

8.59 

5.37 

5.36 

15.56 

15.39 

11.77 

5.34 

5.30 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Hot water heating account for 6 of the top 10 programmes in terms of technical potential and also account for 3 out of the top 5. As a result, 
it has the largest energy saving potential with 181.7 ktoe or 71% of the top ten, although only 52.6 ktoe is thought to be economically viable 
by 2030 (28.9%). This is largely due to RPP and Natural Gas Hot Water Heating Programmes in Single Family House’s not being economic 
by 2030, which have a combined total of 129.1 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1019 

 
 
 
In terms of likelihood of success, all of the multi-family apartment programmes have been replaced by single-family home programmes, with 
the exception of multi-family apartments RRP space heating. All programmes have a relatively high likelihood to succeed owing to the low 
complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. Electricity-
based programmes have the highest likelihood of success, and space heating programmes round out the bottom of the top ten list. 

When it comes to cost-effectiveness, hot water programmes tend to have the highest CCEs, ranging from 8.6-12.7 cent/kWh, with the 
exception of “other”-fuel hot water, which has a low CCE of 1.8 cent/kWh. Lighting is clearly the most cost-effective programme among the 
top ten, with a CCE of 0.83 cent/kWh. 

Figure A25.25  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Slovenia in 2030 

August 2020  

1020 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A25.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Hot Water Heating. 6 hot water heating ESOs present technical potential energy savings of 114.8 ktoe. Low-Flow Shower Heads have 
the highest potential, partially due to low current uptake and predicted large-scale uptake by 2030. Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems, 
Water Heater Replacement and Active Solar Water Heating Systems also show significant Technical Potential Energy Savings by 2030. 

■  Space Heating and cooling. The Space Heating and cooling ESOs presents technical potential energy savings of 22.4. Both ESOs 

have expected increases in uptake of 40-44 percentage points by 2030. 

■  Space Heating and Hot Water Heating. The Space Heating and Hot Water Heating ESO presents technical potential energy savings of 
34.3. Net-Zero-Ready and energy-efficient homes fall into this end-use category, and savings can be attributed to the uptake of the ESOs 
increasing by 40-48 percentage points over the period shown.  

Table A25.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in Slovenia in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Hot water heating 

Water Heater Replacement 

Hot water heating 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Hot water heating 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash 

Hot water heating 

DHW Tank Insulation 

Air Infiltration 

Thermal Curtains 

Hot water heating 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating 

24.7 

23.4 

20.9 

20.3 

20.0 

15.1 

13.7 

11.2 

11.2 

10 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code) 

Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling  10.9 

10% 

100% 

5% 

0% 

0% 

0% 

1% 

0% 

11% 

1% 

5% 

53% 

33% 

77% 

40% 

100% 

77% 

55% 

41% 

45% 

August 2020  

1021 

 
 
 
A25.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A25.4. The technical 
energy saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating and lighting, quantified as follows: 

Table A25.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Slovenia 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Water Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - RPP - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Water Heating 

Private and Public Offices - RPP - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Refrigeration 

Education - Electricity - Lighting 

5.6 

5.1 

4.2 

4.0 

3.6 

3.0 

2.8 

2.8 

2.8 

2.3 

32.79 
4.20 
32.79 
10.46 
4.54 
3.63 
138.52 
9.38 
1.98 
4.44 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Electricity programmes form 7 of the top 10, and 5 of the top 5, programmes in the commercial sector and as a result have the largest 
technical and economic savings potential, with 28 ktoe. Of the top 10 programmes, this makes up 77.7% of total technical savings potential. 
Of these potential savings, 20.5 ktoe (56.9% as a proportion of the top ten) will be economically viable by 2030. As an end-use, space 
heating constitutes four of the top ten programmes and has a technical potential savings of 15.6 ktoe by 2030, although only 3 ktoe of this is 
expected to be economic by 2030. The three lighting programmes total 10.9 ktoe in potential, all of which is economic. 

August 2020  

1022 

 
 
 
From table Table A25.4, one each from space heating and water heating are not considered top ten programmes overall, instead replaced 
by lighting programmes in Hotels & Restaurants and Other Commercial, as shown in Figure A25.26. All programmes have a high likelihood 
of success, owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy 
efficiency measures (all scores between 3.8-5.0). Lighting programmes are those with the highest likelihood of success, having scores of 
5.0. Among the top ten, space heating programmes have the lowest likelihood of success, having scores of 3.8-4.0. 

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is refrigeration in wholesale & retail trade (CCE of 2.0 cent/kWh), although the potential 
technical savings are relatively low, at 2.8 ktoe. The least cost-effective programmes among the top ten are those in electricity space 
heating, having CCEs of 32.8 cent/kWh. Lighting programmes have CCEs ranging from 4.2 – 4.5 cent/kWh. 

Figure A25.26  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Slovenia in 2030 

August 2020  

1023 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A25.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space Heating and Hot Water Heating. The 4-space heating and hot water heating ESOs present technical potential energy savings of 
21.3 ktoe. New Construction – 40% Better has the highest potential (7.1), partially due to low current uptake and predicted large-scale 
uptake by 2030. Advanced BAS/Controllers also show significant technical potential energy savings by 2030, and this is due to rapid 
update, with 2030 predictions showing 100% uptake, from 3% currently.  

■  Space Heating. The Space Heating ESO presents technical potential energy savings of 8.2 ktoe. Standing out as the highest technical 
potential of a single ESO, only Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps fall into this end-use category. Savings can be attributed to 
the uptake of the ESO going from 2% to 69% over the period shown. Of the top 10, this ESO has the highest technical potential energy 
savings by 2030. 

■  Lighting. The 2 lighting ESOs, Daylighting control and occupancy sensors, present technical potential energy savings of 13.0 ktoe, both 

largely due to increase in uptake (3%-100%).  

Table A25.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Slovenia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

New Construction - 40% Better 
Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Space Heating 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Faucet Aerators 

Water Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Space Heating, Water Heating, Space 
Cooling 

10 

Ground Source Heatpump 

Space Heating, Space Cooling 

8.2 

7.1 
6.5 

6.5 

6.0 

5.7 

4.4 

3.9 

2.9 

1.9 

2% 

29% 

3% 

3% 

3% 

60% 

29% 

29% 

3% 

2% 

69% 

62% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

62% 

100% 

69% 

42% 

August 2020  

1024 

 
 
 
A25.2.3 

Industrial 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A25.6 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in process heating and machine drives end-use programmes: 

Table A25.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Slovenia 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

19.1 

Non-ferrous Metals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

18.9 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

18.3 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Electricity - Machine drives 

16.0 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

11.8 

Machinery - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Electricity - Machine 
drives 

11.2 

11.2 

10.8 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

10.5 

Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

10.3 

0.27 

0.27 

1.54 

1.45 

0.27 

0.32 

0.27 

1.45 

0.26 

0.43 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Proces heating programmes form 7 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and also have the 
highest technical savings. The top 10 accounts for 138 ktoe of total savings, of which process heating accounts for 92.9 ktoe (67.3%). Of 
that 92.9 ktoe. 100% is predicted to be economic by 2030. The end-use with the second highest potential technical saving is machine drives, 
making up 45.1 ktoe (32.7%) of the total savings. Equally, all measures are expected to be economic by 2030. The individual programme 

August 2020  

1025 

 
 
 
with most potential technical savings is process heating in other industries using natural gas, with potential savings of 19.1 ktoe and a CCE 
of 0.27 cent/kWh. 

When assessing the top 10 energy efficiency opportunities (Figure A25.27), the number of process heating programmes decreases to 6, with 
machine drives programmes increasing to 4. The cost-effectiveness of process heating programmes (score of 3.8-4.3) when compared to 
machine drives programmes (0.0-1.1). While machine drivers programmes have a higher likelihood of success (3.9), process heating 
programmes still have a reletively high chance of success (3.8 ). All programmes have a relatively high likelihood to succeed owing to the 
low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures.  

Figure A25.27  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Slovenia in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A25.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

August 2020  

1026 

 
 
 
 
 
■  Process Heating. The six process heating ESOs present technical potential energy savings of 72.8 ktoe. Of these, flue gas monitoring 

(boiler) presents the highest potential technical energy savings (15.4 ktoe). While current uptake is already high (51%), potential savings 
are due to universal predicted uptake in 2030. This is a trend which repeats itself across the process heating programmes, with 4 out of 5 
having current uptake greater than or equal to 50%, and 4 out of 5 having 2030 uptake of greater than or equal to 90%.  

■  Machine Drives. The 4 machine drives ESOs present technical potential energy savings of 43.8 ktoe. Of these, premium efficiency 

control, with ASD (fans) presents the highest potential technical energy savings (12.7 ktoe), which can be attributed to low 2020 uptake 
(22%) and high 2030 uptake (100%). Premium efficiency controls with ASD accounts for 34.1 ktoe in potential savings, 80.0% of 
machine drives savings. Of these, units with fans, rather than pumps or other motors, present the highest potential for savings.  

Table A25.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Slovenia in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

MS 

Sector 

ESOs 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Slovenia  

Slovenia  

Slovenia  

Slovenia  

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Industrial 

Boiler load management 

Industrial 

Boiler right sizing 

Industrial 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans) 

15.4 

13.6 

13.6 

13.0 

Slovenia  

Industrial 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Furnace)  12.4 

Slovenia  

Industrial 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Other 
motors) 

11.4 

Slovenia  

Industrial 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Pumps) 

10.6 

Slovenia  

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Slovenia  

Industrial 

Impeller Trimming or Inlet Guide Vanes 

10 

Slovenia  

Industrial 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

10.1 

9.9 

9.8 

51% 

50% 

50% 

22% 

37% 

22% 

33% 

31% 

21% 

60% 

100% 

93% 

93% 

100% 

90% 

90% 

97% 

89% 

100% 

100% 

August 2020  

1027 

 
 
 
 
A25.2.4 

Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the commercial sector are shown in Table A25.8. The technical 
energy saving potential mainly lies within programmes on private cars and heavy goods vehicles, quantified as follows: 

Table A25.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Slovenia 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

69.4 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles  43.8 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty 
Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road 
transport 

13.6 

5.3 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

4.9 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

1.5 

0.7 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

0.1 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

0.1 

0.0 

7.31 

4.36 

2.64 

0.12 

7.97 

0.91 

0.42 

0.03 

3.91 

11.83 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Private cars’ programmes form 2 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and also have the 
highest technical potential energy savings, due to the prominence of private cars. The top 10 accounts for 139.4 ktoe of total savings, of 
which private cars accounts for 70.8 ktoe (50.8%). Of that 70.8 ktoe, only electric private cars are predicted to be economic by 2030, making 
up 1.5 ktoe (0.0%) of private car potential savings. The end-use with the second highest potential technical saving is heavy goods vehicles, 
making up 44.5 ktoe (31.9%) of the total savings and, unlike private cars, all measures are expected to be economic by 2030.  

August 2020  

1028 

 
 
 
When assessing the top energy efficiency opportunities (Figure A25.28), the number of electric solutions falls to 1, with gasoline/diesel 
making up the other 5 programme fuels. Only private cars feature both fuel types, with electric forms of heavy goods vehicle, light duty 
vehicle and public road transport not present in the list. All programmes have a relatively high likelihood to succeed owing to the low 
complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. However, 
heavy goods vehicles have a particularly high likelihood of success (4.2). 

Figure A25.28  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for Transport sector in Slovenia in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A25.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
All ESOs are centred around improving vehicle efficiency. These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private Cars. The two private car ESOs present technical potential energy savings of 50.9 ktoe. Of these, improved vehicle efficiency 

(5%) presents the highest potential technical energy savings (29.7 ktoe), although improved vehicle efficiency (4%) also presents strong 

August 2020  

1029 

 
 
 
 
 
potential savings (21.2). These savings are largely due to low current uptake (4%), and future uptake by 2030 is not expected to be 
universal (38%). 

■  Private Cars and Public Road Transport. The private cars and public road transport ESO presents technical potential energy savings 
of 22.1 ktoe. It’s current and future uptake mirror that of private cars (4% and 38% respectively) and once again savings are due to low 
current uptake rather than high future uptake. 

■  Heavy Goods Vehicles. The 5 Heavy Goods Vehicles ESOs presents technical potential energy savings of 43.1 ktoe and of these, 
improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) has the highest savings (11.4 ktoe). All HDV ESOs have a current uptake of 4%, and 2030 
uptake of 40% 

Table A25.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Slovenia in 2030 

Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private 
car (5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private 
car (3%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private 
car (4%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(32.5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(30%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(25%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV 
(6%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(20%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV 
(4%) 

 Private cars 

 Private cars and 
public road transport 
 Private cars 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

 Light duty vehicles 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

 Light duty vehicles 

29.7 

22.1 

21.2 

11.4 

10.6 

8.8 

8.1 

7.1 

5.7 

4% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

7% 

4% 

7% 

August 2020  

38% 

38% 

38% 

40% 

40% 

40% 

70% 

40% 

70% 

1030 

 
 
 
Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV 
(15%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles 

5.3 

4% 

40% 

A25.3 Recommendations  

A25.3.1 

Policy Review 

Slovenia’s draft NECP was submitted in December 2018. The Commission commented that the NECP was not adequately clear and 
recommended that Slovenia specify policies and measures on buildings, considering the 2030 greenhouse gas target.  

Regarding buildings, which spans the residential, industrial and commercial sectors, Slovenia has not yet estimated the potential of existing 
building stock to contribute to its energy efficiency targets. It’s 2030 building sector targets are: reduce energy consumption in building by 
30% by 2030 (from a 2005 baseline) and complete an energy retrofit of 26 million m2 of buildings (1.3 – 1.7 m2 of buildings per year). One 
third of the 26 million are targeted to be nearly zero-energy building standard. 

The Commission commented that Slovenia should increase its ambitions to achieve its transport target in Article 25 of Article 25 of Directive 
(EU) 2018/2001. Transport sector consumption has increased 27% from 2005 – 2016 and this can be largely attributed to the increase in 
road transport19. In its third NEEAP, Slovenia describes a measure to increase the energy efficiency of road motor vehicles. It has introduced 
mandatory labelling of vehicles, grants/subsidies for energy efficient vehicle and clean vehicles. Tax on the purchase of cars and training on 
energy efficiency driving behaviour. The total energy savings in transport (impact of all NEEAP 3 measures) are estimated to be 1,674 GWh 
(6.04 PJ) in 2020.  

19 European Commission, 2017. Energy Union Factsheet, Slovenia, Commission Staff Working Document, SWD(2017) 412 final, Brussels. 
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/energy-union-factsheet-slovenia_en.pdf [Accessed 09/12/2019]  

August 2020  

1031 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                
A25.3.2 

Policies and Measure analysis  

There are multiple Slovenian cross-cutting policies that not only apply to all the energy and climate related sectors but have even wider 
scope, like Slovenian Development Strategy 2030, Slovenia’s Smart Specialisation Strategy (S4). Overall, there are fourteen cross-cutting 
measures with 9 of them being part of the NEEAP 2017. One more major measure is planned to be introduced in mid-2020 – Energy 
Concept Slovenia (ECS) with main goals of increasing energy efficiency, raising awareness on sustainable energy supply and management, 
gradually switching to renewable and low-carbon sources, introducing advanced energy systems and services. 

There are 14 policies targeting the residential sector ranging from incentives for renewable energy to providing free heating devices to 
vulnerable households. A significant number (9) of the policies has an economic angle, three are strictly informational and two have a 
regulatory character.  

The commercial sector as a whole has much less dedicated policies than the residential one. Economic measures in this sector target 
mostly public sector – there are three examples of such: (a) Financial incentives for comprehensive energy renovation and sustainable 
construction of buildings in the public sector, (b) Financial incentives for efficient energy use in the public sector, (c) Renovation of cultural 
heritage buildings and other special groups of buildings. 

Seven measures in Slovenia addresses specifically industrial sector and six of them are of the economic type: (a) Financial incentives in the 
form of grants, (b) Financial incentives in the form of reimbursable grants, (c) Financial incentives to raise efficiency and RES use in industry 
(d) Financial incentives for demonstration projects, (e) Co-financing of district heating for RES, (f) Eco Fund's Financial Incentives for 
Sustainable Development. 

There is broad framework of economic support for energy transition in the transport sector with 6 relevant policies and each of them having 
an economic element in them. Targeted subsectors include cycling, public transport, freight transport and low-carbon vehicles. 

Policies implemented in Slovenia tend to be effective and score well, especially in transferability, experience and the impact generated. 
Least developed dimension of the measures toolbox in place seems to be avoidance of negative side effects. 

A25.3.3 

Recommendations 

As shown in the Table A25.10 and Table A25.11 the highest technical potential for energy savings can be found in residential and transport 
sectors. Hot water heating in single family houses is the end-use with highest potential for savings exceeding 136.5 ktoe.   

Passenger and freight transport programmes could help Slovenia save up to 113 ktoe, with two thirds of that potential in the private cars. 
Ranked as the top programme, increase in efficiency of private cars has not met the criteria to be flagged as economic, contrary to the 
efficiency increase of heavy goods vehicles.  

Three industrial programme made it to the top 10 including process heating using natural gas in non-ferrous metals and other industry with a 
technical potential savings of 38 ktoe. The measure has been assessed as economic according to this study’s criteria. 

August 2020  

1032 

 
 
 
The single opportunity with the highest technical potential is the low-flow shower head installation in the residential sector, which is relatively 
simple and low-cost intervention, similarly to number nine – minimizing hot and warm washing cycles. These two ESOs require information 
campaign rather than fiscal incentives.   

Table A25.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Slovenia 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Residential  Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Residential  Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Residential  Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Industrial 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Industrial 

Non-ferrous Metals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

10 

Industrial 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

69.4 

48.7 

47.7 

43.8 

40.1 

28.8 

24.1 

19.1 

18.9 

18.3 

7.31 

12.67 

12.46 

4.36 

8.59 

5.37 

5.36 

0.27 

0.27 

1.54 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Table A25.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Slovenia by 2030 

Country 
rank 

1 

2 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

Residential 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake 
(2020) 

29.7 

24.7 

4% 

10% 

Future 
uptake 
(2030) 

100% 

38% 

August 2020  

1033 

 
 
 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake 
(2020) 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (3%) 

 Private cars,  Public road transport 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (4%) 

 Private cars 

Residential  Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems  Hot water heating 

Residential  Water Heater Replacement 

Hot water heating 

Residential  Active Solar Water Heating Systems  Hot water heating 

Residential 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes 
Wash 

Hot water heating 

10 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

23.4 

22.1 

21.2 

20.9 

20.3 

20.0 

15.1 

15.0 

5% 

4% 

4% 

0% 

0% 

0% 

1% 

51% 

Future 
uptake 
(2030) 

100% 

53% 

38% 

33% 

38% 

77% 

40% 

100% 

To generate an impact that would allow Slovenia to meet the 2030 targets, the authorities should: 

1.  Incentivise single-family housing retrofitting to use energy in more efficient manner in residential space and hot water heating 

2.  Continue supporting low-carbon passenger transport  

3.  Run information campaigns leading to behavioural changes in the residential sector 

August 2020  

1034 

 
 
 
Annex 26  Spain 

A26.1 Summary 

Table A26.1 

Summary of modelling results for Spain 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

13,850 

10,414 

26,036 

27,219 

77,519 

 4,644  

 2,558  

 6,272  

 2,332  

 15,807  

 2,087  

 1,874  

 6,068  

 848  

 10,877  

34% 

25% 

24% 

9% 

20% 

15% 

18% 

23% 

3% 

14% 

6,693 

August 2020  

1035 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A26.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A26.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating (2938 
ktoe) and space heating (1025 ktoe).   

Figure A26.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

1036 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 2614 ktoe. 

Figure A26.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on residential sub-sectors 

Figure A26.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Hot 
water heating, space heating and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end 
use are hot water heating (730 ktoe) and space heating (677 ktoe).   

August 2020  

1037 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on residential energy end uses  

Figure A26.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 1212 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1038 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on residential sub-sectors  

August 2020  

1039 

 
 
 
 
Figure A26.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 9206.1 ktoe (34% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 11763.2 ktoe 
(15% energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 13849.8 ktoe.    

Figure A26.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Spain  

The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Spain’s final energy consumption by 3436.04 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A26.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (48.65%), natural gas (32.25%) 
and RPP (18.93%) contain the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

1040 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.6 

Primary energy impacts for Spain based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

1041 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A26.1.3 

Commercial 

Figure A26.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Refrigeration, lighting and 
space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are refrigeration (848 
ktoe), lighting (716 ktoe) and space heating (550 ktoe).   

Figure A26.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

1042 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.8 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and retail trade 
contain the highest potential over time, followed by private and public offices. In 2030, wholesale and retail trade could have potential energy 
savings of 1449 ktoe, while private and public offices will offer potential savings of 600 ktoe. 

Figure A26.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on commercial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

1043 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Refrigeration and lighting contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
refrigeration (848 ktoe) and lighting (716 ktoe).   

Figure A26.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on commercial energy end uses  

August 2020  

1044 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale and 
retail trade contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, wholesale and retail trade will provide potential energy savings of 1325 ktoe. 

Figure A26.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on commercial sub-sectors  

August 2020  

1045 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A5.7 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 7855.7 ktoe (25% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 8540.3 ktoe (18% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 10414.2 ktoe. 

Figure A26.11  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Spain  

August 2020  

1046 

 
 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Spain’s final energy consumption by 2558.4 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A26.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (90.02%) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

Figure A26.12  Primary energy impacts for Spain based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

1047 

 
 
 
 
 
A26.1.4 

Industrial 

Figure A26.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating and machine 
drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (4347 ktoe) 
and machine drives (1193 ktoe).   

Figure A26.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

1048 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.14 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Petroleum refineries 
contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, petroleum refineries could have potential energy savings of 1794 ktoe. 

Figure A26.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on industrial sub-sectors 

Figure A26.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (4347 ktoe) and machine drives (1193 ktoe). 

August 2020  

1049 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on industrial energy end uses  

Figure A26.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Petroleum 
refineries contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, petroleum refineries could have potential energy savings of 1776 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1050 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on industrial sub-sectors  

Figure A26.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 19763 ktoe (24% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 19967 ktoe (23% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 26036 ktoe.   

August 2020  

1051 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Spain  

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Spain’s final energy consumption by 6272.3 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A26.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (27%), electricity (56%), and 
RPP (11%) contain the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

1052 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.18  Primary energy impacts for Spain based on technical potential for industrial sector 

August 2020  

1053 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A26.1.5 

Transport  

Figure A26.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars and heavy good 
vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are private cars (1229.47 ktoe) 
and heavy good vehicles (737.41 ktoe). 

Figure A26.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A26.20 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, passenger transport could have potential energy savings of 1497.88 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1054 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A26.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Heavy good vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use will come from 
heavy good vehicles (737.41 ktoe). 

August 2020  

1055 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on transport energy end uses  

Figure A26.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Freight transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, freight transport could have potential energy savings of 738.21 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1056 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Spain based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A26.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 24887.24 ktoe (9% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 26190.75 ktoe 
(4% energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 27219.38 ktoe.    

August 2020  

1057 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.23  Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Spain  

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Spain’s final energy consumption by 2332.14 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A26.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (96.82%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

1058 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A26.24  Primary energy impacts for Spain based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

1059 

 
 
 
 
A26.2 Discussion 

A26.2.1 

Residential    

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A26.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on hot water heating and space heating, quantified as follows:  

Table A26.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Spain 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

758.1 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating  635.0 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

470.5 

423.6 

341.8 

320.1 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating 

305.9 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

286.4 

Single family houses - Electricity - Lighting 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

229.2 

173.8 

21.22 

25.81 

21.18 

14.90 

25.95 

8.52 

20.16 

8.50 

1.13 

8.44 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Hot water heating programmes form 6 of the top 10 programmes for the residential sector and have the largest energy saving potential, with 
2934.9 ktoe. However, only 729.5 ktoe (24.9%) is evaluated to be economic. Programmes on space heating for single family houses and 
multi-family apartments (totalling 780.3 ktoe) presents the second largest technical saving potential with all of it being economic by 2030. 

August 2020  

1060 

 
 
 
These programmes also have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.5 – 4.7), attributed by good policy measures and the ESOs 
within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement as can be seen in Figure A26.25 

There is a clear disparity between cost effectiveness of different end-use programmes, as can be seen in Figure A26.1. This can largely be 
attributed to differences in CCE. Hot water heating programmes have a CCE between 14.9-25.8 cent/kWh, while at the low end, lighting has 
CCEs of 0.85-1.1 cent. The only hot water heating programme among the top ten programmes thought to be economic by 2030 is electric in 
single family homes 

Figure A26.25  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Spain in 2030 

August 2020  

1061 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A26.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Hot water heating. The seven hot water heating ESOs present a technical saving potential totalling 1764.3 ktoe. Low flow shower heads 
have a relatively low current uptake (10%) with high energy saving potential by 2030. Wastewater heat recovery systems, active solar water 
heating systems, minimising hot and warm washes also are also areas with high energy saving potential owing to the low uptake of the ESO 
(8% - 11%). 
■  Space heating. The 2-space heating ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling 491.1 ktoe by 2030. The current market uptake 
for net zeros ready homes energy efficient homes are relatively low (30%). The projected uptake of such technologies by 2030 is significant 
(70% - 78%). 
■  Lighting.  Lighting end use has a technical saving potential totalling 285.1 ktoe by 2030, this is due to a high future uptake of 100% 

Table A26.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector for Spain in 2030 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Residential Lighting Efficiency from Incand. 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash 

Water Heater Replacement 

DHW Tank Insulation 

Heat Pump Water Heater  

Lighting 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

Hot water heating 

10 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code)  Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling 

August 2020  

366.2 

322.1 

285.1 

279.1 

262.1 

244.0 

215.1 

211.4 

186.3 

169.0 

10% 

30% 

63% 

11% 

11% 

8% 

11% 

11% 

11% 

30% 

100% 

78% 

100% 

44% 

51% 

100% 

88% 

88% 

88% 

70% 

1062 

 
 
 
A26.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes for the Swedish commercial sector can be seen in Table A26.4. The technical energy saving 
potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating, lighting and refrigeration, quantified as follows: 

Table A26.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Spain 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Refrigeration 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity – Lighting 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

804.9 

451.6 

191.3 

129.7 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space Heating  94.9 

Other Commercial - Electricity - Lighting 

Health - Electricity - Water Heating 

Private and Public Offices - RPP - Space Heating 

67.9 

53.6 

48.3 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space Heating  47.2 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - IT & Multimedia 

47.0 

2.31 

4.82 

45.33 

5.23 

12.88 

5.21 

15.45 

12.88 

4.94 

17.91 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Refrigeration programmes form 1 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and has the highest 
savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 1936.4 ktoe in of total savings, of which refrigeration accounts for 756.8 ktoe 
(41.6%). The end-use with the second highest potential technical saving is lighting, making up 649.1 ktoe (33.5%) of the total savings. 
Equally, all measures are expected to be economic by 2030. 1692.4 ktoe in savings potential (87.4% of the top ten) involves electricity as an 
energy source. Five programmes, presenting 511.2 ktoe in savings come from the Private and Public Offices sub-sector. 

August 2020  

1063 

 
 
 
Fully half of the programmes included in Table A26.4 are not included in the top technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial 
sector in Spain in 2030 (Figure A26.26). All of the space heating and water heating programmes are replaced by lighting and cooking-related 
programmes. All top ten programmes have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 3.9 – 4.6), attributed by good policy measures and 
the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement as seen in Figure A26.26.Of the top ten, the 
Wholesale & Retail refrigeration programme is deemed the least likely to succeed (3.9), while cooking and lighting all have likeliness scores 
of 4.5-4.6.. 

In terms of cost-effectiveness, among the top ten, the electricity cooking in Hotels & Restaurants programme fares worst, with a CCE of 30.6 
cent/kWh. Meanwhile, the natural gas cooking in Hotels & Restaurants programme is best by more than a factor of 4 versus second-place, 
with a CCE of 0.55 cent/kWh. Lighting programmes all have a CCE of 4.8-5.3 cent/kWh and therefore have a cost effectiveness of 3.0-3.1.  

Figure A26.26  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Spain in 2030 

August 2020  

1064 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A26.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Refrigeration. Refrigeration has the highest saving potential of 754 ktoe by 2030, with the use of strip curtains for walk in freezers and 
coolers providing high levels of technical potential energy savings. This is due to both a low current uptake (21%) and a high future 
uptake (100%). 

■  Lighting. The 5 lighting ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling 406.3 ktoe by 2030, and savings can be attributed to huge 

future uptake (100%) rather than low current uptake (63%-66%).  

Table A26.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Spain in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

ESOs 

End-use 
category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future 
uptake (2030) 

Strip Curtain for Walk-in Freezers 

Strip Curtain for Walk-in Coolers 

Faucet Aerators 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Commercial Door Air Infiltration Heat Pump Heating 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W (Against 250W baseline) 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 75 W (Against 200W baseline) 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 150 W (Against 400W baseline) 

Efficient High Bay Lighting - 150 W (Against 320W baseline) 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Refrigeration 

Refrigeration 

Water Heating 

Space Heating, 
Water Heating 
Space Heating 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Lighting 

377.3 

376.7 

128.5 

113.9 

99.4 

91.7 

85.1 

83.2 

73.3 

72.9 

21% 

21% 

10% 

30% 

0% 

63% 

63% 

63% 

63% 

66% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

63% 

91% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

August 2020  

1065 

 
 
 
A26.2.3 

Industrial 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A26.6 for the industrial sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in process heating and machine drives end-use programmes  

Table A26.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Spain 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Machine drives 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - RPP - Process Heating 

607.2 

440.2 

356.5 

256.9 

253.8 

Non-Metallic Minerals - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

232.5 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Process Heating 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - Process 
Heating 

224.6 

208.4 

194.0 

168.6 

0.31 

1.91 

0.36 

0.36 

0.31 

0.36 

0.49 

0.43 

2.11 

0.35 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating form 8 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and has the highest savings of 
any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 2942.9 ktoe in of total savings, of which process heating accounts for 2308.6 ktoe 
(78.4%). Of that 2308.6 ktoe, 100% is predicted to be economic by 2030. The end-use with the second highest potential technical saving is 
machine drives, making up 634.3 ktoe (21.6%) of the total savings. Equally, all measures are expected to be economic by 2030.  

Figure A26.27 shows a slight negative corrolation between likelihood of success and cost-effectiveness, although all programmes have an 
exceptionally high likelihood of success (4.5-4.6), owing to the low complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political 
feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. However, process heating end-use programmes are far more cost effective than 
machine drives, which can be attributed to differences in CCE. Process heating has a CCE of 0.3-0.5 cent/kWh, resulting in a cost-
effectiveness score of 3.8-4.3. Due to the high likelihood of success of all programmes, petroleum refineries – natural gas – process heating 
provides the most viable single programme. It has high technical potential savings (607.2 ktoe) paired with a high cost-effectiveness score 
(4.27) and makes up 20.6% of total technical potential savings expected to be economic by 2030. 

August 2020  

1066 

 
 
 
Figure A26.27  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Spain in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A26.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process Heating ESOs account for 8 of the top 10 ESOs, and account for 2275.1 ktoe in technical potential energy savings by 2030. In 
6 of these programmes, the potential savings are due to a change in uptake of between 39%-52%. Only exhaust gas heat recovery 
(furnace) (69%) and flue gas monitoring (furnace) (57%) have a higher change in uptake.  

August 2020  

1067 

 
 
 
 
 
 
■  Machine Drive ESOs complete the top 10, and account for 357.6 ktoe between the two programmes. This is 13.6% of the total savings 

for the top 10, and savings can be attributed to low current uptake (22%) and high future uptake (90%-100%). 

Table A26.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Spain in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category  Technical 

Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Boiler right sizing 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

397.4 

374.2 

284.9 

279.6 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

279.6 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

231.5 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

219.3 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

208.6 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans) 

Machine drives 

186.9 

10 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Other motors)  Machine drives 

170.7 

51% 

38% 

32% 

51% 

51% 

32% 

11% 

61% 

22% 

22% 

100% 

90% 

89% 

94% 

94% 

81% 

80% 

100% 

100% 

90% 

A26.2.4 

Transport 

The Top 10 energy efficiency programmes can be seen in Table A26.8 for the transport sector. The largest energy savings to be had are 
found in private cars and heavy goods vehicles end-use programmes. 

August 2020  

1068 

 
 
 
Table A26.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Spain 

Programme Name 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

1207.5 

726.4 

178.0 

96.0 

86.9 

22.0 

11.0 

2.1 

1.5 

0.8 

 12.54 

3.25 

13.39 

24.46 

0.24 

1.32 

0.27 

0.05 

16.72 

30.55 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

Private car end-use programmes form 2 out of the top 10 technical efficiency programmes when considering saving potential, and have the 
highest savings of any end-use programme. The top 10 accounts for 2332.1 ktoe in of total savings, of which private cars account for 1229.5 
ktoe (52.7%) of that total. However, 0.0% of that will be economic by 2030, as the gasoline/diesel private car programme will not be 
economic by 2030, yet the programme makes up 51.8% (1207.5 ktoe) of total savings. The end-use with the second highest potential 
technical saving, and highest economically viable technical potential savings is heavy goods vehicles. They makes up 737.4 TOE/year 
(31.6%) of the total savings. Equally, all measures are expected to be economic by 2030.  

As can be seen in Figure A26.3, all the top energy efficiency programmes have a high likelihood of success (4.3-4.7), owing to the low 
complexity of the ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures. However, 

August 2020  

1069 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
only the 4 most cost-effective programmes are predicted to be economic by 2030, with the CCE of both private cars (12.54 cent/kWh) and 
freight light duty vehicles (24.46 cent/kWh) powered by gasoline/petrol rendering them uneconomic. These are substantially higher that other 
top energy efficiency programmes. Of those that are predicted to be economic by 2030, gasoline/diesel powered HGVs in the freight 
subsector provide the most substantial potential savings, and its CCE of 3.25 leads to a cost effectiveness score of 4.5.  

Figure A26.28  Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Spain in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A26.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Private car. The 2 ESOs relating to private cars have the largest technical energy savings (989.1 ktoe). Of those, there is a positive 

correlation between level of efficiency gain and technical potential energy savings. This is a pattern which can be observed throughout 
the ESOs, and it not confined to the private car end use programmes. High technical potential energy savings can be attributed to low 
current uptake (5%) as uptake is not expected to be particularly high by 2030 (45%). 

August 2020  

1070 

 
 
 
 
 
■  Private Cars and Public Road Transport. The single public cars and public road transport end-use ESO programme accounts for 381.1 

ktoe, gains due to low current uptake (5%). 

■  Light Duty Vehicle. The 3 ESOs on this end use category presents a total technical saving potential of 676.9 ktoe, due to low current 

and high future uptake.  

■  Heavy Duty Vehicle. The 4 ESOs related to this end use category presents a total technical saving potential of 600.9 ktoe/yr. All ESOs 
presented here have a relatively modest current uptake rate and technical potential energy savings can be attributed to this, rather than 
high uptake by 2030. 

Table A26.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Spain in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

 Private cars and 
public road transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

518.6 

381.1 

370.5 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  189.1 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  175.4 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  146.2 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

120.0 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  116.9 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (15%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  87.7 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

 Light duty vehicles 

84.7 

5% 

5% 

5% 

4% 

4% 

4% 

7% 

4% 

4% 

7% 

45% 

45% 

45% 

40% 

40% 

40% 

70% 

40% 

40% 

70% 

August 2020  

1071 

 
 
 
 
A26.3 Recommendations 

A26.3.1 

Policy review  

Spain’s primary energy consumption in 2030 is forecasted to be lower by 39.6% than in the baseline scenario. It is supposed to drop to 98.2 
ktoe in 2030, from 126 ktoe in 2017 (which is a 22% reduction compared to latest historical data).  The energy-efficiency goal presented in 
the draft NECP has been commented by the European Commission as sufficient, which means it is in line with wider European goals.   

Energy efficiency goals are considered to be sufficient, which is quite a positive assessment, but compared to some other goals set by 
Spanish authorities for the country it looks less impressive. E.g. in the GHG gases emissions reduction Spain is planning to overachieve and 
achieve reduction levels 12 percentage points higher than EU reference levels.  

Path to achieving the energy consumption reductions are well outlined in the draft NECP with clear modelling assumptions. Clear 
methodology leading to the consumption reductions is complemented by impact assessment for macroeconomic outlook and air-quality.  

There is clear focus and specific targets for buildings renovations, which is a total of 1,200,000 building renovations in the 2021-2030 period, 
which the annual rate increase from 30,000 to 300,000 renovated buildings per year. These plans cover both residential, public and 
commercial buildings. 

Transport sector gets significant attention in the Spanish draft NECP as well, with measures promoting modal shits and car fleet renewal. 

A26.3.2 

Policies and Measure analysis  

Spanish draft NECP presents a total of 30 energy-efficiency-related measures, 3 of them planned and some of them loosely linked to energy 
consumption reduction, like renewable electricity generation support. Among those 30 measures, there is 10 cross-sectoral ones, two of 
which are economic in nature and already implemented. These two are JESSICA-FIDAE fund supporting urban energy efficiency and RES 
projects, and the FNEE (National Energy Efficiency Fund) which finances smaller support mechanisms and provides technical assistance 
and training).  

There are 5 already implemented policies addressing the residential sector and 1 planned. Existing measures are mostly focusing on 
buildings regulations, renovation and heating/cooling performance. The one measure still waiting implementation will be targeting improving 
energy efficiency of household appliances. 

A total of 3 measures targeting commercial sector is listed, one aiming to increase cooling efficiency of public infrastructure operated by 
tertiary sector, one focused on buildings used for services and one policy encouraging green public procurement.  2 measures are 
addressing energy efficiency in industrial sector, first of them is supporting replacement of poor efficiency equipment and implementation of 
energy management systems, the other one supports RES and distributed generation (which should reduce electricity transmission losses). 

August 2020  

1072 

 
 
 
The transport sector is being targeted by 4 policies, 2 of which are fiscal or economic and support car replacement and electric vehicles. 
Non-economic measures promote shift of transportation modalities and better fleet management.  

Spanish policies score very high when it comes to persistency, transferability, acceptance, impact and suitability. There are no really weak 
spots of the policy suit implemented, a dimension with slightly lower score compared to the most successful is cost efficiency of measures in 
place. 

A26.3.3 

Recommendations  

A ranking of top 10 programmes with the highest technical potential is shown in Table A26.10 with a top spot well ahead of the rest of the 
programmes. The leading programme is passenger transport using private cars, with the potential of 1208 ktoe. Heavy goods vehicles, the 
other transport sector related programme, has been ranked fourth at 726 ktoe of potential up to 2030, so the sector’s potential total is 1933 
ktoe. Four residential programmes in the top 10 were ranked lower individually, but the total potential for hot water heating in single and 
multi-family housing using natural gas and oil equals 2287 ktoe, but only 3 of the 4 are currently economic. 

Wholesale retail and trade sub-sector represents commercial sector with second and eighth positions totalling at 1181 ktoe, the former one’s 
end use to be addressed is refrigeration with the latter one’s end use being lighting. Both those programmes have been flagged as 
economic. Two end-uses in petroleum refineries made it to the top 10 with process heating ranked as a sixth and machine drives efficiency 
improvement as a ninth programme. 

Table A26.11 presents a ranking of top 10 Energy Savings Opportunities (ESOs). In this ranking transport sector also presents the highest 
technical potential for savings.  

There are two industrial opportunities and they mostly focus on boilers and furnaces monitoring, control and load management, sum of which 
could save up to 771 ktoe before the end of 2030. Top opportunities for commercial sector are curtains for coolers and curtains for freezers.  

Table A26.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Spain 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

1207.5 

Commercial 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Refrigeration 

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

804.9 

758.1 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles  726.4 

12.54 

2.31 

21.22 

3.25 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

August 2020  

1073 

 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water 
heating 

Industrial 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Residential 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Commercial 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Industrial 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Machine drives 

10 

Residential 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

635.0 

607.2 

470.5 

451.6 

440.2 

423.6 

25.81 

0.31 

21.18 

4.82 

1.91 

14.90 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Table A26.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Spain by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (3%) 

 Private cars,  Public road 
transport 

Commercial 

Strip Curtain for Walk-in Freezers 

Refrigeration 

Commercial 

Strip Curtain for Walk-in Coolers 

Refrigeration 

Industrial 

Advanced Heating and Process 
Control (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (4%) 

 Private cars 

Residential 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

Residential 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space 
heating 

518.6 

397.4 

381.1 

377.3 

376.7 

374.2 

370.5 

366.2 

322.1 

5% 

51% 

5% 

21% 

21% 

38% 

5% 

10% 

30% 

45% 

100% 

100% 

90% 

45% 

45% 

100% 

100% 

89% 

August 2020  

1074 

 
 
 
Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

10 

Residential 

Residential Lighting Efficiency from 
Incand. 

Lighting 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

285.1 

63% 

94% 

To improve reduce energy consumption significantly, Spain should follow the following recommendations: 

1.  Make it more economic to replace old, low-efficiency private cars. 

2.  Raise awareness on and subsidise efforts to lower hot water heating energy consumption 

3.  Introduce a long-term industrial strategy that would encourage energy efficiency investments, such as flue gas monitoring and control 
systems in industrial boilers and furnaces, that require high up-front expenditure but are economically sound in the long term (which 
currently might be limited by uncertainties of the market cycle). 

August 2020  

1075 

 
 
 
 
Annex 27  Sweden 

A27.1 Summary 

Table A27.1 

Summary of modelling results for Sweden 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

7,532 

4,290 

12,349 

6,379 

30,550 

 1,155  

 965  

 2,722  

 1,152  

 5,993  

 1,146  

 405  

 2,637  

 1,152  

 5,339  

15% 

22% 

22% 

18% 

20% 

15% 

9% 

21% 

18% 

17% 

2,570 

August 2020  

1076 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A27.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A27.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating (540 
ktoe) and space heating (395 ktoe).  

Figure A27.1 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

1077 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 800 ktoe. 

Figure A27.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on residential sub-sectors 

Figure A27.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Hot 
water heating and space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are 
hot water heating (525 ktoe) and space heating (395 ktoe).   

August 2020  

1078 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on residential energy end uses  

Figure A27.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 789 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1079 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on residential sub-sectors  

August 2020  

1080 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 6377.2 ktoe (15% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 6386.0 ktoe (15% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 7532.0 ktoe.    

Figure A27.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Sweden  

The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Slovenia’s final energy consumption by 1284.78 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A27.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (69.96%) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

August 2020  

1081 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.6 

Primary energy impacts for Sweden based on technical potential for residential sector 

A27.1.3 

Commercial 

August 2020  

1082 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use could come from space heating (550 ktoe).   

Figure A27.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on commercial energy end uses 

Figure A27.8 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Private and public offices 
contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, private and public offices could have potential energy savings of 487 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1083 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on commercial sub-sectors 

Figure A27.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Lighting, water heating and space heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by 
end use are lighting (173 ktoe) and space heating (76 ktoe).   

August 2020  

1084 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on commercial energy end uses  

Figure A5.12 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Private and public 
offices contain the highest potential over time, followed by wholesale & retail trade. In 2030, private and public offices could have potential 
energy savings of 176 ktoe and wholesale & retail trade 124 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1085 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on commercial sub-sectors  

August 2020  

1086 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 3325.3 ktoe (22% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 3885 ktoe (9% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 4289.9 ktoe. 

Figure A27.11  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Sweden  

August 2020  

1087 

 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce Sweden’s final energy consumption by 964.6 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A27.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (70.40%) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

Figure A27.12  Primary energy impacts for Sweden based on technical potential for commercial sector 

August 2020  

1088 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A27.1.4 

Industrial 

Figure A27.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating and machine 
drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating (1502 ktoe) 
and machine drives (921 ktoe).   

Figure A27.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

1089 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.14 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Paper, pulp and print 
contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, paper, pulp and print industries could have potential energy savings of 1274 ktoe. 

Figure A27.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on industrial sub-sectors 

Figure A27.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating and machine drives contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use 
are process heating (1502 ktoe) and machine drives (921 ktoe). 

August 2020  

1090 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on industrial energy end uses  

Figure A27.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Paper, pulp and 
print contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, paper pulp and print could have potential energy savings of 1239 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1091 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on industrial sub-sectors  

Figure A27.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 9627 ktoe (22% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 9712 ktoe (21% 
energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 12349 ktoe.  

August 2020  

1092 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Sweden  

The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce Slovenia’s final energy consumption by 2722 ktoe in 2030. 

August 2020  

1093 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (70%) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

Figure A27.18  Primary energy impacts for Sweden based on technical potential for industrial sector 

August 2020  

1094 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A27.1.5 

Transport  

Figure A27.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars and heavy goods 
vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are private cars (610.29 ktoe) 
and heavy goods vehicles (363.70 ktoe).   

Figure A27.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A27.20 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, passenger transport could have potential energy savings of 726.74 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1095 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A27.21 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Private cars and heavy good vehicles contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end 
use are private cars (610.29 ktoe) and heavy good vehicles (363.70 ktoe).   

August 2020  

1096 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on transport energy end uses  

Figure A27.22 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, passenger transport could have potential energy savings of 726.74 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1097 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for Sweden based on transport sub-sectors  

Figure A27.23 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 5227.73 ktoe (18% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 5227.73 ktoe 
(18% energy saving against BAU) and actual BAU is 6379.27 ktoe.    

August 2020  

1098 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.23  Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for Sweden  

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce Sweden’s final energy consumption by 1151.54 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A27.24 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (98.77%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

1099 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.24  Primary energy impacts for Sweden based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

1100 

 
 
 
 
A27.2 Discussion 

A27.2.1 

Residential 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the residential sector are shown in Table A27.2. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating and hot water heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A27.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in Sweden 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

272.2 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

191.0 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Hot water heating  124.0 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Space heating 

116.1 

Single family houses - Other - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Lighting 

Single family houses - Electricity - Space heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Appliances 

Multi Family Apartments - Electricity - Lighting 

Multi Family Apartments - Other - Hot water heating 

93.8 

76.8 

73.1 

70.3 

35.1 

34.7 

8.66 

2.33 

11.74 

2.34 

1.61 

1.02 

3.92 

3.12 

0.72 

1.83 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Hot water heating programmes form 4 of the top 10 programmes for the residential sector and have the largest energy saving potential, with 
524.8 ktoe. All of it is evaluated to be economic. Programmes on space heating for single family houses and multi-family apartments 
(totalling 380.2 ktoe) presents the second largest technical saving potential with the total saving potential being economic by 2030. All 
programmes in the top ten by technical potential are either related to electricity or other energy sources excluding natural gas, RRP and 
coal. Single family homes present 777.3 ktoe, or 71.5% of the top ten. 

August 2020  

1101 

 
 
 
These programmes also have a high likelihood of success, scoring between 3.4 – 4.8, as shown in Figure A27.25. This can be attributed to 
good policy measures and the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement as can be seen in Figure 
A4.25. Lighting programmes have the highest likelihood of success, with scores of 4.8. Among the top ten programmes, space heating 
programmes have the lowest likelihood of success, with scores of 3.4-3.6. 

Electric hot water programmes have the lowest cost-effectiveness (8.7 and 11.7 cent/kWh) but are still deemed to be cost effective. The 
most cost-effective programmes of the top 10 are lighting-based, with CCEs of 1.0 cent/kWh and below. The least cost-effective programme 
is hot water heating in multifamily apartments with a CCE of 11.74 cent/kWh.  

Figure A27.25  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in Sweden in 2030 

August 2020  

1102 

 
 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A27.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Hot water heating. The 5 hot water heating ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling 494.7 ktoe. Low flow shower heads 
have a relatively low current uptake (10%) with high energy saving potential by 2030. Water heater replacement, active solar water heating 
systems and heat pump water heaters are also areas with high energy saving potential owing to the low uptake of the ESO (25%). 
■  Space heating and cooling. The 4-space heating ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling 243.6 ktoe by 2030. The current 
market uptake for air infiltration, wall insulation and super high-performance windows are all relatively moderate (25 - 50%). The projected 
uptake of such technologies by 2030 is significant (65% - 83%) which leads to ESOs like thermal curtains for windows having the largest 
energy saving potential. Air infiltration and wall insulation ESOs also contribute to energy savings in the process cooling energy end-use.  
■  Lighting.  Lighting end use has a technical saving potential totalling 79.3 ktoe by 2030, this is due to a high future uptake of 100% 

Table A27.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector for Sweden in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020) 

Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Water Heater Replacement 

Hot water heating 

Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Hot water heating 

Residential Lighting Efficiency from Incand. 

Lighting 

Active Solar Water Heating Systems 

Hot water heating 

Heat Pump Water Heater  

Thermal Curtains 

Air Infiltration 

Wall Insulation 

Hot water heating 

Space heating 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

10 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Space heating, Cooling 

136.5 

110.0 

96.1 

79.3 

77.4 

74.8 

68.1 

65.9 

62.9 

46.6 

25% 

10% 

25% 

70% 

25% 

25% 

25% 

50% 

50% 

50% 

August 2020  

100% 

100% 

58% 

100% 

65% 

100% 

65% 

87% 

83% 

83% 

1103 

 
 
 
A27.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes for the Swedish commercial sector can be seen in Table A27.4. The technical energy saving 
potential mainly lies within programmes on space heating, lighting and water heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A27.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in Sweden 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating  130.1 

Private and Public Offices - Other   - Space Heating 

127.0 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Lighting 

60.2 

58.1 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Water Heating  55.1 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Refrigeration 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Other   - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - RPP - Space Heating 

Other Commercial - Other   - Space Heating 

Education - Other   - Space Heating 

49.2 

37.2 

31.8 

29.4 

26.6 

23.32 

6.69 

4.78 

5.18 

7.99 

1.79 

2.63 

6.69 

4.88 

2.08 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

No 

Space heating programmes form 6 of the top 10 programmes for the commercial sector and have the largest technical saving (382.1 ktoe) 
however only have an economical saving of 31.8 ktoe. From the top 10 programmes, technical energy savings from lighting total 118.3 ktoe 
all of which is economic. Five of the top ten programmes by technical potential are from the Private and Public Offices subsector, and 
provide a total of 402.1 ktoe in technical potential savings, 145 ktoe of which is economic by 2030. 

August 2020  

1104 

 
 
 
Four space heating programmes which are in Table A27.4 are not considered top ten programmes overall, and therefore do not appear in 
Figure A27.26. those space heating programmes are displaced by lighting and IT & Multimedia programmes. All top ten programmes have a 
low likelihood of success (scoring between 1.3 – 2.5) attributed to a lack of previously-implemented examples and the fact that the ease of 
acceptance of programmes could not be defined. This is particularly relevant for lighting programmes which are the most likely to succeed 
(score of 2.5). 

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is refrigeration within wholesale and retail with CCE of 1.8 cent/kWh). The least cost-
effective programmes are those from Private and Public offices, excluding lighting. These least cost-effective programmes have, CCEs of 
6.7 through 23 cent/kWh. It should be noted that whilst space heating programmes have a lower CCE than lighting and refrigeration 
programmes, they are calculated to be uneconomic. 

Figure A27.26  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in Sweden in 2030 

August 2020  

1105 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A27.5 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Space heating and hot water heating. Five measures save energy in space heating and hot water heating. Two of the measures 

involve the construction of new efficient buildings (25% and 40% better), which lead to 134.0 ktoe technical energy savings by 2030. 
Other measures include the use of advanced BAS/ controllers, which contribute an additional 60.3 ktoe in technical energy savings. The 
low current uptake of these ESOs (17%) and high future uptake (17% and 100% for new constructions and controllers respectively) lead 
to the significant energy saving potential. 

■  Space Heating. Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps is the sole ESO targeted specifically at space heating energy, and is also 

the highest contributor of technical potential of any ESO (130.5 ktoe). 

■  Lighting. The 2 lighting ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling 81.9 ktoe by 2030. The current market uptake for controls-
based measures and efficient lighting are all relatively low with 17% for both. The controls based ESOs lead to a larger energy saving 
when compared to the upgrade to LED. 

Table A27.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in Sweden in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps 

Space Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Commercial Door Air Infiltration Heat Pump 
Heating 

Faucet Aerators 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor 

Space Heating 

Water Heating 

Lighting 

Lighting 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced) 

Space Heating, Water Heating 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Space Heating, Water Heating, 
Space Cooling 

130.5 

82.5 

60.3 

51.6 

50.7 

50.4 

42.4 

39.4 

37.3 

33.7 

20% 

52% 

17% 

52% 

25% 

25% 

17% 

17% 

52% 

17% 

87% 

85% 

100% 

85% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

84% 

August 2020  

1106 

 
 
 
 
A27.2.3 

Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the industrial sector are shown Table A27.6. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies with process heating and machine drives, quantified as follows: 

Table A27.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in Sweden 

Programme Name 

Technical 
Potential (ktoe) 

CCE (Euro Cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Electricity - Machine drives  507.2 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Other   - Process Heating 

279.0 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Electricity - Process 
Heating 

179.8 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

170.1 

Other Industry - Other   - Process Heating 

143.2 

Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

104.3 

Paper, Pulp and Print - RPP - Process Heating 

88.6 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Machine drives 

79.7 

Iron and Steel - Other   - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Electricity - Machine drives 

68.6 

61.4 

1.61 

0.21 

0.47 

1.71 

0.22 

0.47 

0.29 

1.55 

0.22 

1.71 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Process heating programmes form 6 of the top 10 programmes for the industrial sector with a technical energy saving potential of 863.5 
ktoe. Of this technical potential 863.5 ktoe is considered as economical within the process heating sub sectors. From the top 10 
programmes, technical energy and economic energy savings from machine drives total 818.3 ktoe which is also has the largest for the 
industrial sector. All programmes have a high likelihood of success (Scoring between 3.7 – 3.8). The programme with the highest chance to 
succeed of the top 10 are electricity-based machine drives programmes with a score of (3.8) 

August 2020  

1107 

 
 
 
The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is process heating within paper, pulp and print, this is due to the large technical potential 
(CCE of 0.21 cent/kWh save). It should be noted that all process heating programmes within industry have a very low CCE and are all 
economic. 

Figure A27.27  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in Sweden in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A27.7 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Process heating. The top ESO is space heating with a total technical energy saving of 598.5 ktoe. The combination of low current 

uptake and high future uptake lead to high technical savings. For example, control measures such as advanced heating and process 
control has a current uptake rate of 8% and future uptake rate of 74% leading to larger savings 

■   Machine Drives. The total technical saving potential for machine drives is 624.2 ktoe 

August 2020  

1108 

 
 
 
 
Table A27.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in Sweden in 2030 

Sector Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans) 

Machine drives 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Dryer) 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Other 
motors) 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs 
(Pumps) 

Process Heating 

Machine drives 

Machine drives 

Impeller Trimming or Inlet Guide Vanes 

Machine drives 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Dryer) 

Optimization of pumping system 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Furnace) 

Process Heating 

Machine drives 

Process Heating 

10 

Flue gas monitoring (Dryer) 

Process Heating 

163.0 

150.0 

146.7 

131.4 

127.7 

114.1 

105.0 

101.3 

91.9 

91.9 

50% 

22% 

8% 

22% 

33% 

21% 

6% 

18% 

37% 

8% 

100% 

100% 

74% 

88% 

97% 

100% 

72% 

85% 

89% 

74% 

A27.2.4 

Transport 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes by technical potential within the transport sector are shown in Table A27.8. The technical energy 
saving potential mainly lies within programmes on private cars, light duty vehicle and heavy goods vehicles, quantified as follows: 

August 2020  

1109 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A27.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in Sweden 

Programme Name 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods 
vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty 
Vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road 
transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

604.9 

361.5 

86.9 

60.7 

28.7 

5.4 

2.2 

0.5 

0.4 

0.3 

6.45 

1.51 

2.44 

3.58 

0.24 

0.76 

0.14 

3.41 

5.01 

0.06 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Private cars have the highest technical saving potential with a total saving of 610.3 ktoe however only 5.4 ktoe is economical by 2030. Heavy 
duty vehicles form 2 of the top 10 programmes for the transport sector and have the largest technical and economic energy saving potential 
of 363.7 ktoe. Light duty vehicles make up a total technical and economical saving potential of 150.7 ktoe. 

All of the programmes have a high likelihood of success (scoring between 4.3 – 4.5), attributed by good policy measures and the ESOs 
within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to implement as seen in Figure A27.28. This is particularly relevant for heavy 
goods vehicles which are the most likely to succeed (score of 4.5). 

The most cost-effective programme of the top 10 is public transport within passenger transport (CCE of 0.24 cent/kWh). The least cost-
effective programme is private cars within passenger transport with a CCE of 6.45 cent/kWh.  

August 2020  

1110 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A27.28  Top 10 energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in Sweden in 2030 

The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A27.9 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■ 

■ 

■ 

Improved Vehicle efficiency private cars. The top ESO is improved vehicle efficiency private cars, which presents a technical saving 
potential totalling 627.9 ktoe. The combination of low uptake (9%) of this technology and high future uptake (93%) lead to the high 
technical energy savings. 
Improved vehicle efficiency HDV. The 5 HDV ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling 359.2 ktoe by 2030. The current 
market uptake this ESO are all relatively low with 11% and a high future uptake of 100%. 
Improved vehicle efficiency LCV. Two measures save energy in LCV which lead to 110.5 ktoe technical energy savings by 2030. Top 
10 ESOs for transport sector in Sweden in 2030 

August 2020  

1111 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A27.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in Sweden in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%) 

 Private cars 

 Private cars 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%) 

 Private cars and 
public road transport 

262.3 

187.3 

178.3 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  95.0 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  88.1 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

 Heavy goods vehicles  73.4 

 Light duty vehicles 

64.8 

 Heavy goods vehicles  58.7 

 Light duty vehicles 
 Heavy goods vehicles  44.0 

45.7 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (15%) 

A27.3 Recommendations 

A27.3.1 

Policy review  

9% 

9% 

9% 

11% 

11% 

11% 

13% 

11% 

13% 

11% 

93% 

93% 

93% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

Swedish energy efficiency plans incorporated within the draft NECP have forecasted reduction in primary energy consumption from 
46.1 Mtoe in 2017, to 43.4 Mtoe in 2020 and 42.5 I n 2030. That forecast shows higher reduction in three years than in the following decade, 
both in absolute and relative terms. Final energy consumption sees a drop in 2020, but start to rise after that, reaching 32.3 Mtoe in 2030 
(compared with 32.6 in 2017).  

The ambition presented in draft NECP has been labelled low for final energy and modest for primary energy consumption. The plan claims 
that the energy use will be 50% more efficient than in 2005, but this is understood in terms of economic energy intensity, that is amount of 
primary energy in relation to the GDP. Energy consumption scenario with existing measures presented in the draft NECP shows 49% 
reduction in energy intensity, which leaves not much of a need for developing new measures.  

August 2020  

1112 

 
 
 
 
There are no detailed plans for new policies that would explicitly incentivise energy efficiency. Buildings related policies are mentioned only 
in the context of just transition and training programmes in that area. Transportation is sector that European Commission found to be more 
detailed and more active, with multiple policies supporting electromobility, but little about more efficient transport organisation.  

A27.3.2 

Policies and Measure analysis  

The list of energy efficiency measures for Sweden has 27 items and it covers comprehensively all areas of interest. All of the measures 
presented and discussed in detail in the draft NECP are already implemented, there is no planned policies. 10 of the measures are 
economic or fiscal, with important cross-sectoral policies like CO2 tax, energy tax and Local Climate Investment Programme (called Climate 
leap). Other cross-cutting initiatives of the authorities are: climate change communication, regional climate and energy strategies, sectoral 
strategies.   

There are 8 Swedish policies in place targeting the residential buildings sector with 4 having an economic or fiscal dimension. There is 
support for renovation of rental apartments, tax reduction on labour costs for conversions and extensions and financial support for energy 
efficiency in buildings.  

Industrial and commercial sectors do not have much support according to the draft NECP, with one research policy supporting industrial 
research and one policy mandating all large enterprises (industrial and tertiary) to perform energy audits. List of energy efficiency measures 
does not include any transport related policies, even though its challenges are described, and relevant goals are presented. 

Swedish measures, when evaluated often receive very high scores, that is the case especially when it comes to ease of acceptance, 
previous experience and cost-efficiency. Some other aspects of the implemented policies, like impact and support of positive side-effects, 
are scored much lower. 

A27.3.3 

Recommendations  

Tables below, Table A27.10 and Table A27.11, show ranked by technical energy savings potential programmes and opportunities. Two of 
the top 3 programmes come from transport sector, the top one being private cars used for moving passengers, the third programme related 
to freight transport and heavy goods vehicles. Those two programmes have a total potential of 966 ktoe up to year 2030. Individual industrial 
programmes have ranked lower, but the ones that made it to top 10 offer a total of 1279 ktoe across end uses machine drives and process 
heating, mainly in paper, pulp and print industry. Residential sector programmes landed at fifth and sixth position with a sum of technical 
savings potential of 463 ktoe. Single family houses having the higher potential than multi-family buildings in both space and hot water 
heating.  

Eight out of the top 10 programmes have been flagged as economic, thanks to a good number of cross-sectoral measures being present in 
Sweden (like carbon tax and energy tax). Exceptions from this tendency are private cars and process heating in other industries, the former 
having the highest potential, which is makes it worth exploring further.  

August 2020  

1113 

 
 
 
Top Energy Saving Opportunities (ESOs) are also transport related with higher-efficiency private cars occupying first, second and third 
positions.  Half of the top 10 opportunities are in the industrial sector and they sum up to 719 ktoe of technical potential up to 2030, which is 
a higher potential than that of the transport sector (628 ktoe). Premium efficiency controls with ASDs (Adjustable Speed Drives) for pumps, 
dryers and other motors are three noticeable opportunities connected with machine drives programmes. Advanced heating in dryers and flue 
gas monitoring are related to process heating. 

Table A27.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in Sweden 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical 
potential by 
2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme economic by 
2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

604.9 

Industrial 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Electricity - Machine drives 

507.2 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods 
vehicles 

Industrial 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Other   - Process Heating 

361.5 

279.0 

Residential 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

272.2 

Residential 

Single family houses - Other - Space heating 

191.0 

Industrial 

Paper, Pulp and Print - Electricity - Process Heating 

179.8 

Industrial 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Industrial 

Other Industry - Other   - Process Heating 

170.1 

143.2 

6.45 

1.61 

1.51 

0.21 

8.66 

2.33 

0.47 

1.71 

0.22 

10 

Commercial  Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating  130.1 

23.32 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

August 2020  

1114 

 
 
 
 
Table A27.11 

Top 10 ESOs for Sweden by 2030 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

ESO 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (4%) 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (3%) 

Energy end-use 

 Private cars 

 Private cars 

 Private cars,   
Public road transport 

Industrial 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Industrial 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans)  Machine drives 

Industrial 

Advanced Heating and Process Control 
(Dryer) 

Residential  Water Heater Replacement 

Process Heating 

Hot water heating 

262.3 

187.3 

178.3 

163.0 

150.0 

146.7 

136.5 

Industrial 

Commerci
al 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Other 
motors) 

Machine drives 

131.4 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps 

Space Heating 

130.5 

10 

Industrial 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs 
(Pumps) 

Machine drives 

127.7 

To reach more ambitious energy efficiency targets Sweden is recommended to propose the following: 

1.  Incentivise high-efficiency and low-carbon (Plug-in hybrids and EVs) private cars. 

2.  Continue with information campaigns to promote hot water savings. 

3.  Encourage industry to implement the opportunities outlined in energy audits. 

9% 

9% 

9% 

50% 

22% 

8% 

25% 

22% 

20% 

33% 

93% 

93% 

100% 

93% 

100% 

100% 

74% 

100% 

88% 

97% 

August 2020  

1115 

 
 
 
 
 
Annex 28  United Kingdom 

A28.1 Summary 

Table A28.1 

Summary of modelling results for United Kingdom 

Sector 

Residential 

Commercial 

Industrial 

Transport 

Total 

BAU energy 
consumption by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

Technical potential 
savings by 2030 

Economic potential 
savings by 2030 

MS Article 7 energy 
saving target 

(ktoe) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(ktoe/yr) 

(% of BAU) 

(% of BAU) 

by 2030 (ktoe/yr) 

3,7173 

1,7712 

2,3627 

3,4082 

11,2594 

 9,545  

 2,984  

 6,101  

 4,413  

 23,043  

 5,677  

 1,929  

 5,922  

 1,480  

 15,009  

26% 

17% 

26% 

13% 

20% 

15% 

11% 

25% 

4% 

13% 

10,720 

August 2020  

1116 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A28.1.2 

Residential 

Figure A28.1 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Hot water heating and space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are hot water heating (4239 
ktoe) and space heating (5042 ktoe).  

Figure A28.1 

 Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on residential energy end uses 

August 2020  

1117 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.2 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family houses contain 
the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 7917 ktoe. 

Figure A28.2 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on residential sub-sectors 

Figure A28.3 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Space 
heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use come from space heating (4989 
ktoe). 

August 2020  

1118 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.3 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on residential energy end uses 

Figure A28.4 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Single family 
houses contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, single family homes have potential energy savings of 4693 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1119 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.4 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on residential sub-sectors 

August 2020  

1120 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.5 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 27627.8 ktoe (26% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 31495.6 ktoe 
(15% energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 37173.0 ktoe.    

Figure A28.5 

Residential sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for United Kingdom 

The residential sector holds a technical potential to reduce the United Kingdom’s final energy consumption by 11326.94 ktoe in 2030.Figure 
A28.6 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (74.72%%) contains the highest 
technical potential. 

August 2020  

1121 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.6 

Primary energy impacts for United Kingdom based on technical potential for residential sector 

August 2020  

1122 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A28.1.3 

Commercial 

Figure A28.7 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Space heating contains the 
highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end use are space heating (1786 ktoe).   

Figure A28.7 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on commercial energy end uses 

August 2020  

1123 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.8 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale & retail trade and 
private and public offices contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, wholesale & retail trade could have potential energy savings of 
1145 ktoe and private and public offices 602 ktoe. 

Figure A28.8 

Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on commercial sub-sectors 

Figure A28.9 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Space 
heating contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the highest potential economic savings by end use will be related to space heating 

August 2020  

1124 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(790 ktoe). Nevertheless, water heating (270 ktoe), lighting (321 ktoe) and refrigeration (281 ktoe), will also have a significant economic 
saving potential. 

Figure A28.9 

Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on commercial energy end uses 

Figure A28.10 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Wholesale & 
retail trade contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, wholesale & retail trade could have potential energy savings of 957 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1125 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.10  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on commercial sub-sectors

August 2020  

1126 

 
 
 
 
Figure A28.11 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical energy 
consumption scenario is 14728.6 ktoe (17% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 15783 ktoe (11% energy saving 
against BAU), and actual BAU is 17712.4 ktoe. 

Figure A28.11  Commercial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for United Kingdom 

August 2020  

1127 

 
 
 
 
The commercial sector holds a technical potential to reduce the United Kingdom’s final energy consumption by 2983.8 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A28.12 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Electricity (62.97%) and natural gas 
(29.86%) contain the highest technical potential. 

Figure A28.12  Primary energy impacts for United Kingdom based on technical potential for commercial sector

August 2020  

1128 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A28.1.4 

Industrial 

Figure A28.13 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Process heating contains the 
highest potential over time, followed by machine drives. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by end use are process heating 
(4174 ktoe) and machine drives (1176ktoe).   

Figure A28.13  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

1129 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.14 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry subsector 
contains the highest saving potential over time, followed by the petroleum refining industry. In 2030, other industry could have potential 
energy savings of 2229 ktoe. 

Figure A28.14  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on industrial sub-sectors 

August 2020  

1130 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.15 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. 
Process heating contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use are process 
heating (4174 ktoe) and machine drives (1176 ktoe).   

Figure A28.15  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on industrial energy end uses 

August 2020  

1131 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.16 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Other industry 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, Other industry could have potential energy savings of 2193 ktoe. 

Figure A28.16  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on industrial sub-sectors 

Figure A28.17 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical 
energy consumption scenario is 17526 ktoe (26% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 17705 ktoe (25% 
energy saving against BAU), and actual BAU is 23627 ktoe.  

August 2020  

1132 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.17 

Industrial sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for United Kingdom 

The industrial sector holds a technical potential to reduce the United Kingdom’s final energy consumption by 6101 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A28.18 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Natural gas (24%), electricity (56%), and 
RPP (13%) contain the highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

1133 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.18  Primary energy impacts for United Kingdom based on technical potential for industrial sector 

A28.1.5 

Transport 

August 2020  

1134 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.19 provides a breakdown of the current technical energy saving potential according to its end use. Private cars contain the 
highest potential over time, followed by heavy good vehicles and light duty vehicles. In 2030, the highest potential energy savings by end 
use will be provided by private cars (2961.73 ktoe). 

Figure A28.19  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A28.20 provides a breakdown of the country level energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger transport 
contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, passenger transport could have potential energy savings of 3527.1 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1135 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.20  Technical energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure 3.5 provides a breakdown of the current economic savings potential over a timeframe (2020-2050) according to its end use. Private 
cars contain the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential economic savings by end use will be centred on heavy goods 
vehicles (706.03 ktoe) and light duty vehicles (688.19 ktoe). In 2034, on the other hand, the highest potential economic savings by end use 
fall on private cars (3152.64 ktoe).   

August 2020  

1136 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.21  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on transport energy end uses 

Figure A28.21 provides a breakdown of the country level economic energy saving potential overtime based on sub-sectors. Passenger 
transport contains the highest potential over time. In 2030, the two highest potential energy savings by sub-sector will be divided between 
passenger transport (595.90 ktoe) and freight transport (885.74 ktoe). In 2034, on the other hand, passenger transport could provide 
potential energy savings of 3772.8 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1137 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.22  Economic energy savings potential over timeframe for United Kingdom based on transport sub-sectors 

Figure A28.22 provides a breakdown of the total country level technical and economic energy saving potential over time. In 2030, technical energy 
consumption scenario is 29669 ktoe (13% energy saving against BAU), economic energy consumption scenario is 32600.2 ktoe (4% energy saving 
against BAU), and actual BAU is 34081.8 ktoe. 

August 2020  

1138 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.23  Transport sector technical and economic energy consumption scenarios for United Kingdom 

The transport sector holds a technical potential to reduce the United Kingdom’s final energy consumption by 4412.84 ktoe in 2030. 

Figure A28.23 provides a breakdown of this technical saving potential according to its subsector. Gasoline/diesel (97.89%) contains the 
highest technical potential. 

August 2020  

1139 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A28.24  Primary energy impacts for United Kingdom based on technical potential for transport sector 

August 2020  

1140 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A28.2 Discussion 

A28.2.1 

Residential    

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the residential sector are shown in Table A28.2. The technical energy saving potential 
mainly lies within programmes on space heating and hot water heating, quantified as follows: 

Table A28.2 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for residential sector in United Kingdom in 2030 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential 
(ktoe) 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Space heating 

Single family houses - RPP - Hot water heating 

Single family houses - Electricity - Appliances 

Single family houses - Electricity - Space heating 

Multi Family Apartments - RPP - Space heating 

3629.4 

2889.7 

800.2 

579.4 

348.8 

295.2 

290.5 

165.4 

158.2 

76.2 

CCE (Euro 
cent/kWh) 
4.72 

12.82 

4.71 

15.81 

8.43 

4.70 

12.75 

2.46 

3.37 

4.67 

Is this programme economic by 2030? 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Programmes on space heating for single family houses and multi-family apartments (totalling 4959.1 ktoe) presents the largest economic 
saving potential with a cost effectiveness score of 3.9-4.1. These programmes also have a reasonable likelihood of success (scoring 
between 2.9-3.0), attributed by good policy measures and the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straightforward to 
implement. 

Together, natural gas space heating and water heating in single family homes present 6519.1 ktoe in technical potential savings, making up 
70% of the total savings among the top ten programmes by technical potential, although natural gas hot water programmes are not deemed 
to be economic by 2030. Natural gas space heating in single and multi-family homes provide a combined 4429.6 ktoe of economic potential, 
which constitutes 81% of economic potential among top ten technical potential programmes. 

August 2020  

1141 

 
 
 
All programmes are deemed to have a moderate-to-high likelihood of success, with scores of 2.9-4.2. Single-family house lighting 
programmes have the greatest likelihood of success, while space heating programmes have the lowest among top ten programmes, with 
scores of 2.9-3.0. 

Single family house lighting programmes are also the most cost-effective, with a CCE of 0.95 cent/kWh. Single-family house coal space 
heating programmes stand out has being more cost effective than other space heating programmes, with a CCE of 2.0 cent/kWh, versus 
3.4-4.7 for electricity, RRP and natural gas programmes. 

Figure A28.25  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for residential sector in United Kingdom in 2030 

August 2020  

1142 

 
 
 
 
The relative magnitude of the top energy efficiency programmes can be explained by Table A28.3 which shows the top ESOs for the sector. 
These ESOS are analysed by their end-use categories: 

■  Multiple end-use. Net-Zero Ready Homes and Energy-efficient homes (20% above code) are design ESOs related to multiple energy 

end use (space heating, hot water heating and cooling) with a technical saving potential totalling 2379.7 ktoe/yr.  

■  Space heating and cooling. The four space heating and cooling ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling 2023.8 ktoe/yr. 
The current market uptake for high efficiency wall insulation, air infiltration and high-performance windows are relatively high (70%), 
projected to have a remaining uptake potential of 30% by 2030. However, the current market uptake for thermal window curtains are 
relatively low and the remaining uptake potential is projected to be very high by 2030. 

■  Hot water heating. The 3 hot water heating ESOs presents a technical saving potential totalling 1832.5 ktoe/yr. Low flow shower head 
and minimising hot and minimising hot and warm clothes wash has relatively low current uptake and the remaining potential by 2030 is 
high. The current uptake for wastewater heat recovery in Austria is relatively high and therefore the remaining energy saving potential is 
lower. 

■  Appliance. The only ESO on this end use category is high efficiency clothes washer presenting a total technical saving potential of 

391.6 ktoe/yr. The current market uptake is relatively low and therefore the remaining energy saving potential is high. 

Table A28.3 

Top 10 ESOs for residential sector in United Kingdom in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End use 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

1548.5 

853.2 
Low-Flow Shower Head 
Energy Efficient Homes (20% above code)  Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling  831.3 

Hot water heating 

Thermal Curtains 

Space heating 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes Wash 

Hot water heating 

Wall Insulation 

Air Infiltration 

Space heating, Cooling 

Space heating, Cooling 

Super High-Performance Windows 

Space heating, Cooling 

Wastewater Heat Recovery Systems 

Hot water heating 

10 

High Efficiency Clothes Washer 

Appliances, Hot water heating 

August 2020  

623.4 

569.5 

517.4 

457.6 

425.4 

409.9 

391.6 

23% 

10% 

23% 

17% 

31% 

70% 

70% 

70% 

85% 

31% 

70% 

100% 

63% 

57% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

1143 

 
 
 
 
 
A28.2.2 

Commercial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the commercial sector are shown in Table A28.4. The technical energy saving potential 
mainly lies within programmes on space heating, followed by lighting and refrigeration. The technical energy saving potential for 
programmes related to cooking end use is relatively modest. The technical saving potential for the respective programmes are quantified as 
follows: 

Table A28.4 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for commercial sector in United Kingdom in 2030 

Programme Name 

Technical Potential (ktoe)  CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Refrigeration 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Lighting 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - Electricity - Space Heating 

Other Commercial - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Private and Public Offices - Electricity - Space Heating 

Education - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Health - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

Wholesale & Retail Trade - RPP - Space Heating 

375.3 

244.3 

240.9 

206.0 

150.0 

140.7 

110.8 

109.3 

86.5 

74.1 

2.89 

7.59 

1.73 

4.62 

26.73 

5.50 

26.73 

2.32 

3.05 

2.89 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Programmes on space heating (totalling 1291.0 ktoe) make up eight out of the top ten programmes by technical potential, although only 
645.2 ktoe of it is expected to be economic by 2030. Refrigeration and lighting in the Wholesale & Retail subsector together equal 446.9 ktoe 
of technical and economic savings. Wholesale & Retail Trade makes up five of the top ten programmes by technical potential, constituting 
1046.2 ktoe of technical potential, 896.3 of which is economic. 

August 2020  

1144 

 
 
 
 
 
Of the ten programmes by technical potential in Table A28.4, four space heating programmes are not considered to be top programmes 
overall. These are replaced in Figure A28.26 by two lighting programmes, as well as a lighting and IT & Multimedia programme. All 
programmes in Figure A28.26 are deemed to have a high likelihood of success, with scores of 3.0 – 4.2 Space heating programmes have 
the lowest likelihood of success, with scores of 3.0-3.2, while lighting, cooking and IT & Multimedia programmes have the highest likelihoods, 
with scores of 4.2. 

When it comes to cost-effectiveness, among top-ten programmes, those associated with Private and Public Offices have the lowest cost 
effectiveness, with CCEs of 7.6-12.6 cent/kWh. The programme for cooking with natural gas in Hotels & Restaurants has the best cost 
effectiveness, with a CCE of 0.23 cent/kWh. Lighting programmes are clustered with CCEs of 4.6-5.0 cent/kWh. 

Figure A28.26  Top 10 technical energy efficiency programmes for commercial sector in United Kingdom in 2030. 

August 2020  

1145 

 
 
 
 
Table A28.5 presents the top 10 technical ESOs for the commercial sector: 

■  Multiple end-use. The 5 ESOs applicable to multiple end-use (space heating and water heating) presents a technical saving potential 

totalling 1070.2 ktoer. 2 of these ESOs are related to building design. All 5 ESOs has a relatively low current uptake rate resulting in high 
remaining energy saving potential by 2030. 

■  Space heating. Electric Air Source Cold Climate Heat Pumps present the highest technical potential of any ESO (490.0 ktoe). Current 

market uptake is at a relatively low level and the remaining uptake potential is projected to be very high by 2030. 

■  Lighting. Lighting controls presents a technical energy saving potential of 224.7 ktoe, with a relatively high remaining energy saving 

potential projected by 2030. 

■  Refrigeration. The 2 ESO on this end use category presents a total technical saving potential of 230.1 ktoe/yr. The current market 

uptake is relatively low and therefore the remaining energy saving potential is high. 

Table A28.5 

Top 10 ESOs for commercial sector in United Kingdom in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential Energy 
Savings by 2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate Heat 
Pumps 

Space Heating 

New Construction - 40% Better 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating 

490.0 

308.5 

Building Recommissioning (Enhanced)  Space Heating, Water 

270.1 

New Construction - 25% Better 

Advanced BAS/Controllers 

Heating 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating 

Lighting Controls - Occupancy Sensor  Lighting 

Strip Curtain for Walk-in Freezers 

Refrigeration 

Strip Curtain for Walk-in Coolers 

Refrigeration 

Adaptive Thermostats 

Space Heating, Water 
Heating, Space Cooling 

192.8 

188.2 

118.9 

115.1 

115.0 

110.5 

105.8 

10 

Lighting Controls - Daylighting control 

Lighting 

August 2020  

25% 

23% 

23% 

23% 

32% 

32% 

29% 

29% 

32% 

32% 

92% 

56% 

100% 

56% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

100% 

99% 

100% 

1146 

 
 
 
 
A28.2.3 

Industrial 

The top 10 energy efficiency programmes within the industrial sector are shown in Table A28.6. . The technical saving potential for the 
respective programmes are quantified as follows: 

Table A28.6 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for industrial sector in United Kingdom in 2030 

Programme Name 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

Other Industry - RPP - Process Heating 

Other Industry - Electricity - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - Electricity - Machine drives 

Food and Tobacco - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Iron and Steel - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

Chemicals and Petrochemicals - Natural Gas - 
Process Heating 

Petroleum refineries - RPP - Process Heating 

Technical energy saving 
potential in 2030 (ktoe / 
year) 

CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

717.6 

428.9 

373.9 

315.5 

259.7 

203.4 

191.6 

182.5 

169.2 

135.3 

0.28 

1.59 

0.28 

0.45 

0.24 

1.44 

0.33 

0.28 

0.27 

0.24 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

The 8 programmes related to industrial process heating present the largest energy saving potential. All 8 programmes are deemed to be 
economic by 2030, with a cost effectiveness score between 3.6 – 4.3, presenting a total economic saving potential of 2,345.4 ktoe. Of these 
process heating programmes, other industries have the 4 highest technical energy savings potential, with total savings potential of 1836 ktoe 
(60.0% of process heating total). 

The 2 programmes related to machine drives present a technical energy saving potential of 632.4 ktoe in total. However, due to their 
relatively high CCE (1.4-1.6 cent/kWh), they are less cost effective than process heating programmes (0.2-0.5 cent/kWh). However, they will 
be economic by 2030 and have a likelihood of success (3.8) similar to process heating programmes (3.7). Owing to the low complexity of the 
ESOs made up within the programme and high political feasibility of implementing energy efficiency measures, all programmes in the top 10 
have a relatively high likelihood of success. However, process heating using natural gas in other industries presents the efficiency 
programme with most potential. It has the largest single technical energy saving potential (717.6 ktoe) and due to its low CCE score (0.28 
cent/kWh) is one of the most cost-effective measures, with a score of (4.1). 

August 2020  

1147 

 
 
 
Figure A28.27  Top technical energy efficiency programmes for industrial sector in United Kingdom in 2030 

Table A28.7 presents the top 10 technical ESOs for the industrial sector: 

■  Process heating. ESOs relating to process heating have the largest technical energy saving potential for the sector, and the 8 ESOs 
combined have saving potential of 1997.2 ktoe, 84.8% of total potential energy savings by 2030 (2358.6 ktoe). Of the process heating 
programmes, flue gas monitoring (boiler) presents highest technical potential energy savings (348.7 ktoe), due to almost universal future 
uptake by 2030. While programmes have differing current and future uptake, most see a 10-year change of between 42-53%, with only 
flue gas monitoring (furnace) (58%) and exhaust gas heat recovery (furnace) (68%) showing greater uptake over the 10-year period.  
■  Machine drives. The ESO on this end use category presents a total technical saving potential of 357.2 ktoe. The current market uptake 

is relatively low and therefore the remaining energy saving potential is high. 

August 2020  

1148 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table A28.7 

Top 10 ESOs for industrial sector in United Kingdom in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End-use category 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current uptake 
(2020) 

Future uptake 
(2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Flue gas monitoring (boiler) 

Process Heating 

Advanced Heating and Process Control (Furnace)  Process Heating 

Boiler right sizing 

Boiler load management 

Process Heating 

Process Heating 

348.7 

303.0 

269.7 

269.7 

Flue gas monitoring (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

230.1 

Exhaust Gas Heat Recovery (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

197.9 

High Efficiency Burner (Furnace) 

Process Heating 

193.5 

Premium efficiency control, with ASD (Fans) 

Machine drives 

190.1 

Steam Trap Survey and Repair 

Process Heating 

184.5 

10 

Premium Efficiency Control with ASDs (Other 
motors) 

Machine drives 

167.2 

51% 

37% 

51% 

51% 

31% 

11% 

31% 

22% 

60% 

22% 

99% 

90% 

93% 

93% 

89% 

79% 

80% 

99% 

99% 

89% 

A28.2.4 

Transport 

The top energy efficiency programmes transport sector in United Kingdom are shown in Table A28.8.  The technical energy saving potential 
is mainly attributed by the passenger transport subsector. The energy saving potential for the respective programmes are quantified as 
follows: 

August 2020  

1149 

 
 
 
 
Table A28.8 

Top 10 programmes by technical potential for transport sector in United Kingdom in 2030 

Programme  

Technical energy saving 
potential in 2030 (ktoe / 
year) 

 CCE (Euro cent/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Public road transport 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Private cars 

Freight transport - Electricity - Heavy goods vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Freight transport - Electricity - Light Duty Vehicles 

Passenger transport - Electricity - Public road transport 

2931.2 

695.5 

504.3 

178.2 

56.1 

30.5 

10.6 

4.2 

1.5 

0.8 

7.96 

2.24 

2.34 

6.31 

0.55 

0.97 

0.21 

3.40 

9.18 

0.14 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

The 2 programmes relating to private cars have the highest technical energy saving potential, with its 2961.7 ktoe making up 67.1% of total 
yearly top 10 technical energy saving potential (4412.8 ktoe). However, this figure is mainly compromised of gasoline/diesel private cars, a 
programme not economic by 2030. This is largely down to its very high CCE (7.96 cent/kWh), which gives it a relative cost-effectiveness 
score of 0.7. Of those deemed economic by 2030, freight transport – gasoline/diesel – heavy goods vehicles provide the highest technical 
energy saving potential (695.5 ktoe). Freight transport programmes account for the most economic energy saving potential (885.8 ktoe, 
59.8%) of the total energy saving potential (1481.7 ktoe) expected to be economic by 2030. All transport programmes have a very high 
likelihood of success, attributed by strong policy measure score and the ESOs within these programmes are non-complex and straight 
forward to implement. 

August 2020  

1150 

 
 
 
  
 
 
Figure A28.28  Top energy efficiency programmes for transport sector in United Kingdom in 2030 

Table A28.9 presents the top 10 technical ESOs for the transport sector: 

■  Private car. The 3 ESOs relating to private cars have the largest technical energy savings (2956 ktoe). Of those, there is a positive 

correlation between level of efficiency gain and technical potential energy savings. This is a pattern which can be observed throughout 
the ESOs, and it not confined to the private car end use programmes.  High technical potential energy savings can be attributed to low 
current uptake (8%) and high 2030 uptake (79%). 

■  Light Duty Vehicle. The 3 ESOs on this end use category presents a total technical saving potential of 676.9 ktoe, due to low current 

and high future uptake.  

■  Heavy Duty Vehicle. The 4 ESOs related to this end use category presents a total technical saving potential of 600.9 ktoe/yr. All ESOs 
presented here have a relatively modest current uptake rate and technical potential energy savings can be attributed to this, rather than 
high uptake by 2030. 

August 2020  

1151 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A28.9 

Top 10 ESOs for transport sector in United Kingdom in 2030 

Sector 
Rank 

ESOs 

End use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 2030 
(ktoe) 

Current uptake (2020)  Future uptake (2030) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (5%)  Private car 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (4%)  Private car 

Improved vehicle efficiency private car (3%)  Private car 

1269.0 

906.5 

780.5 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (6%) 

Light Duty Vehicle 

298.9 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (4%) 

Light Duty Vehicle 

211.0 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (32.5%) 

Heavy Duty Vehicle  181.1 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (30%) 

Heavy Duty Vehicle  167.9 

Improved vehicle efficiency LCV (3%) 

Light Duty Vehicle 

167.0 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (25%) 

Heavy Duty Vehicle  139.9 

10 

Improved vehicle efficiency HDV (20%) 

Heavy Duty Vehicle  112.0 

8% 

8% 

8% 

7% 

7% 

4% 

4% 

7% 

4% 

4% 

79% 

79% 

79% 

70% 

70% 

40% 

40% 

70% 

40% 

40% 

A28.3 Recommendations 

A28.3.1 

Policy review  

The United Kingdom has submitted a draft NECP prepared by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy with disclaimers 
on plans for leaving the EU. In line with those disclaimers the UK did not provide forecasts for contributions to some of the EU-wide 2030 
goals, including its primary and final energy consumption levels. The draft NECP shows however forecasts regarding year 2020, with a slight 
increase of primary energy consumption (from 176.8 to 177.6 Mtoe) and a decrease in final energy consumption (from 133.3 to 129.2 Mtoe). 
Such trends are unusual and suggest lowering overall energy efficiency of the economy. 

The draft NECP lacks energy efficiency contribution claims, but existing results of modelling presented show a very low level of ambition in 
European Commission’s assessment. Buildings and transport sector are named as important areas for efficient use of energy, however 
there is no detailed plan on how to obtain this goal. 

August 2020  

1152 

 
 
 
 
A28.3.2 

Policies and Measure analysis  

The total count of energy efficiency measures in place in the UK is 40, however the number is inflated by the fact that constituent countries 
of the UK have often different regulations. Most of the regulatory measures in place are implementing European Energy Efficiency Directive 
(EED). There are 10 cross-sectoral policies, but only three of these are economic: Climate Change Leavy and Climate Change Agreements 
that offer discounts in Climate Change Leavy for meeting energy efficiency targets. The third one being Northern Ireland Sustainable Energy 
Programme (NISEP), which is limited to Northern Ireland.  

13 of the measures target the residential sector with 5 of them being economic. Some of the economic policies do not address energy 
efficiency directly, like the Warm Front and Warmer Homes Scotland, that address energy poverty. There are no measures targeting 
specifically commercial services sector and four policies for public services sector (two of them are economic and both are loan schemes).  

The UK has four policies targeting both commercial and industrial sectors, including ESOS (Energy Savings Opportunity Scheme), CRC 
(Carbon Reduction Commitment), SME loans and Local Energy Programme. Not mentioned in the draft NECP but operating since late 2018 
is the IHRS – industrial Heat Recovery Programme offering grants for heat recovery projects in planning, preparation and delivery stages. 5 
measures in the UK are in place to help improve transport efficiency. These programmes support public transport, helping with uptake of 
electric buses and rail electrification, while regulatory measures to support efficiency of private cars and heavy goods vehicles are a 
transposition of European Regulations. 

In general UK policies do not score very highly in comparison with other countries.  They are praised for operational experience, persistency 
and transferability, but the measures get very low scores for ease and stability of financing, links to other measures and avoidance of 
negative side-effects 

A28.3.3 

Recommendations  

Programmes with highest savings potential across the sector have been ranked in a top 10 Table A28.10. Space and hot water heating in 
single family houses lead the list with a total for first and third at 6519 ktoe of technical savings potential. Same end uses in multi-family 
apartments also made it to the top 10 in places four and seven. 

There is also a significant potential for savings in energy efficiency programmes for transport sector. Private cars, heavy goods vehicles and 
light duty vehicle, ranked second, sixth and eight respectively, have a total potential of 4131 ktoe up to 2030. None of the top 10 
programmes come from the commercial sector and there are two programmes aimed at other industries and their process heating and 
machine drives. 

It is not easy to find a pattern when it comes to economic feasibility of the programmes. Savings in natural gas on space heating is deemed 
economical, while in the same subsector the same fuel saving is not economical for hot water heating. In general, most of the residential 

August 2020  

1153 

 
 
 
programmes are not considered economic. In the transport sector, professional goods delivery should be economical, while private cars 
efficiency improvement might not be. 

Table A28.11 shows a ranking of top 10 Energy Saving Opportunities (ESOs). These opportunities lay in sectors indicated by the 
programmes table, that is mostly residential and transport. Four of the top 10 opportunities with a total 3520 ktoe are space heating 
reduction measures, like getting homes net-zero ready, insulating walls and thermal curtains. Two of the top 10 relates to hot water heating, 
with total potential of 1422 ktoe. Private car efficiency improvements may contribute 2956 ktoe to energy demand reduction 

Table A28.10 

Top 10 programmes technical energy saving potential in the United Kingdom 

Country 
rank 

Sector 

Programme Name 

Technical potential 
by 2030 (ktoe) 

CCE (EUR 
cents/kWh) 

Is this programme 
economic by 2030? 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Private cars 

Residential 

Single family houses - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

Residential 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Space heating 

Industrial 

Other Industry - Natural Gas - Process Heating 

3629.4 

2931.2 

2889.7 

800.2 

717.6 

Transport 

Freight transport - Gasoline/diesel - Heavy goods vehicles 

695.5 

Residential 

Multi Family Apartments - Natural Gas - Hot water heating 

579.4 

Transport 

Passenger transport - Gasoline/diesel - Light Duty Vehicles 

504.3 

Industrial 

Other Industry - Electricity - Machine drives 

10 

Commercial  Wholesale & Retail Trade - Natural Gas - Space Heating 

428.9 

375.3 

4.72 

7.96 

12.82 

4.71 

0.28 

2.24 

15.81 

2.34 

1.59 

2.89 

Yes 

No 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

August 2020  

1154 

 
 
 
 
 
Table A28.11 

Top 10 ESOs for the United Kingdom by 2030 

Country 
rank  

Sector 

ESO 

Energy end-use 

Technical Potential 
Energy Savings by 
2030 (ktoe) 

Current 
uptake (2020) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

Residential  Net-Zero-Ready Home 

Hot water heating, Space heating 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (5%) 

 Private cars 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (4%) 

 Private cars 

Residential  Low-Flow Shower Head 

Hot water heating 

1548.5 

1269.0 

906.5 

853.2 

Residential 

Energy Efficient Homes (20% 
above code) 

Space heating, Hot water heating, Cooling 

831.3 

Transport 

Improved vehicle efficiency (3%) 

 Private cars,  Public road transport 

Residential  Thermal Curtains 

Space heating 

Residential 

Minimize Hot and Warm Clothes 
Wash 

Hot water heating 

Residential  Wall Insulation 

Space heating, Cooling 

10 

Commerci
al 

Electric Air-Source Cold Climate 
Heat Pumps 

Space Heating 

780.5 

623.4 

569.5 

517.4 

490.0 

23% 

8% 

8% 

10% 

23% 

8% 

17% 

31% 

70% 

25% 

Future 
uptake 
(2030) 

70% 

100% 

100% 

79% 

79% 

63% 

79% 

100% 

100% 

92% 

The United Kingdom take the following steps to reduce primary energy consumption: 

1.  Subsidise renovation of the building stock, focusing on both single-family houses and multi-family apartments. 

2.  Set-up an information campaign on hot water savings potential. 

3.  Provide incentives for efficient private cars (electric car subsidies have been cut in 2019 resulting in shrinking the market). 

August 2020  

1155 

 
 
 
July, 2020 

1 

 
 
 
 
HOW TO OBTAIN EU PUBLICATIONS 

Free publications: 

  one copy: 

via EU Bookshop (http://bookshop.europa.eu); 

  more than one copy or posters/maps: 

from the European Union’s representations 
(http://ec.europa.eu/represent_en.htm); 
from the delegations in non-EU countries 
(http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/index_en.htm); 
by contacting the Europe Direct service 
(http://europa.eu/europedirect/index_en.htm) or calling 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 
(freephone number from anywhere in the EU) (*). 

(*)  The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels 
may charge you). 

Priced publications: 

  via EU Bookshop (http://bookshop.europa.eu). 

Priced subscriptions: 

  via one of the sales agents of the Publications Office of the European Union 

(http://publications.europa.eu/others/agents/index_en.htm).