REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2021-2027)
Date: 2021-06-30
Institutions: Directorate-General for Budget, European Commission
Subjects: EU budget, EU expenditure, Member States' contribution, budget policy, budgetary resources, long-term forecast, multiannual financial framework, own resources

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 30.6.2021  COM(2021) 343 final  REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2021-2027)  
 
 
Contents 
1. 

Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 2 

2.  Forecast of outflows of the EU budget 2021-2027 ...................................................................... 3 

2.1.  Payments in relation to new commitments ........................................................................... 5 

2.2.  Payments on pre-2021 commitments .................................................................................... 6 

2.3.  De-commitments ................................................................................................................... 6 

2.4.  NextGenerationEU ................................................................................................................ 7 

2.5.  Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments ............................................................. 8 

3.  Forecast of inflows of the EU budget 2021-2027 ........................................................................ 9 

4.  Conclusions ................................................................................................................................ 11 

Annex I –  Forecast Assumptions ...................................................................................................... 12 

1.  Specific assumptions by main spending elements .................................................................. 12 

1.1.  2014-2020 ESI Funds and cohesion policy funds 2021-2027 ............................................ 12 

1.2.  Rural Development ............................................................................................................. 12 

1.3.  Direct payments and market measures under the Common Agricultural Policy ................ 12 

1.4.  Other programmes and funds .............................................................................................. 13 

1.5.  Administration .................................................................................................................... 13 

1.6.  Special Instruments ............................................................................................................. 13 

2.  Assumptions for forecasting revenue ..................................................................................... 14 

2.1.  Applicable legislation ......................................................................................................... 14 

2.2.  Traditional own resources ................................................................................................... 14 

2.3.  National contributions ......................................................................................................... 14 

2.4.  Other revenue ...................................................................................................................... 15 

Annex II – Results of the forecast ..................................................................................................... 16 

Table 1 – Long-term forecast of future outflows over 2021-2027 for the MFF ............................ 16 

Table 2 – Long-term forecast of outflows for NextGenerationEU ................................................ 18 

Table 3 – Change in the total outstanding commitments from 2021 to 2027 ................................ 18 

Table 4 – Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget over 2021-2027 ...................... 19 

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1. 

INTRODUCTION 

This  report  provides  projections  for  the  inflows  and  outflows  of  the  EU  budget  over  the  period 
2021-20271.  It  is  the  first  report  on  the  long-term  forecast  issued  after  the  adoption  of  the 
Multiannual  Financial  Framework  (MFF)  2021-20272  and  NextGenerationEU3.  The EU’s  long-
term budget (the MFF), coupled with NextGenerationEU, will be the largest stimulus package ever 
financed in Europe amounting to a total of EUR 1.8 trillion (in 2018 prices). NextGenerationEU, an 
exceptional and temporary instrument, is designed to boost the recovery from the economic, social 
and health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The MFF reflects the priorities of the Union 
for 2021-2027, underpinning the green and digital transitions to make the European economy fairer, 
more resilient and more sustainable for future generations.  

The  report  is  issued  in  accordance  with  the  requirements  of  Article  247(1)(c)  of  the  Financial 
Regulation4.  In  line  with  point  8  of  the  Interinstitutional  Agreement5  and  to  allow  for  a 
comprehensive view of the revenue inflows and the expenditure outflows under the ceilings of the 
new MFF for its entire duration, the forecast exceptionally spans over seven years  - from 2021 to 
2027. 

Moreover,  the  report  includes  as  a  novel  element  the  projected  payments  on  all  programmes 
benefitting from NextGenerationEU. This expenditure is additional to the spending under the MFF, 
and  will  be  financed  exclusively  by  revenue  proceeds  from  borrowing  operations  on  the  capital 
markets (constituting external assigned revenue). 

Payments from the EU budget follow commitments. The projections in this report are based on the 
commitments  of  the  financial  programming  accompanying  the  Draft  Budget  2022,  including  the 
programme-specific adjustments stemming from Article 5 of the MFF Regulation6 as well as re-use 
of de-commitments under Article 15(37) of the Financial Regulation. For 2021, the report reflects 
the  adopted  EU  budget,  including  amending  budget  1/2021  and  draft  amending  budgets  1  and 
3/2021; for 2022, it reflects the Commission’s proposal for the Draft Budget.8 

1 Unless otherwise specified, all amounts in the report are expressed in current prices. 
2 Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2093 laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 
2027, OJ L 433I, 22.12.2020, p. 11. 
3 Council Regulation (EU) 2020/2094 establishing a European Union Recovery Instrument  to support the recovery in 
the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis, OJ L 433I , 22.12.2020, p. 23 (‘NextGenerationEU’). 
4 Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2018/1046 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 July 2018 on the financial 
rules applicable to the general budget of the Union, amending Regulations (EU) No 1296/2013, (EU) No 1301/2013, 
(EU)  No  1303/2013,  (EU)  No  1304/2013,  (EU)  No  1309/2013,  (EU)  No  1316/2013,  (EU)  No  223/2014,  (EU)  No 
283/2014, and Decision No 541/2014/EU and repealing Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 966/2012, OJ L 193, 30.7.2018, 
p. 1. 
5  Interinstitutional  Agreement  of  16  December  2020  between  the  European  Parliament,  the  Council  of  the  European 
Union  and  the  European  Commission  on  budgetary  discipline,  on  cooperation  in  budgetary  matters  and  on  sound 
financial  management,  as  well  as  on  new  own  resources,  including  a  roadmap  towards  the  introduction  of  new  own 
resources, OJ L 433I, 22.12.2020, p. 28. 
6 Article 5 of the MFF Regulation provides for the additional allocation in commitment and payment appropriations for 
a pre-defined list of programmes, for an amount equivalent to certain types of fines. 
7 Article 15(3) of the Financial Regulation provides that commitment appropriations corresponding to the amount of 
de-commitments made in relation to research projects may be made available again. 
8 Statement of estimates of the Commission SEC(2021)250, June 2021. 

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As  regards  revenue,  the  forecast  is  based  on  the  new  revenue  system  of  the  Own  Resources 
Decision  adopted  in  December  20209,  wich  entered  into  force  on  1  June  2021  with  retroactive 
application as of 1 January 2021. The revenue projections also take into account the Agreement on 
the  withdrawal  of  the  United  Kingdom  of  Great  Britain  and  Northern  Ireland  from  the  European 
Union and the European Atomic Energy Community10 (‘Withdrawal Agreement’). 

2. 

FORECAST OF OUTFLOWS OF THE EU BUDGET 2021-2027 

The  payments  for  the  duration  of  the  MFF  are  expected  to  reach  EUR 1 199.7 billion,  of  which 
EUR 1 190.6 billion under the MFF payment ceiling. The forecast includes estimates for the future 
programme-specific adjustments stemming from Article 5 of the MFF Regulation and for re-use of 
de-commitments  under  Article  15(3)  of  the  Financial  Regulation,  which  will  be  allocated  in  the 
years  2023-2027.  The  programme-specific  adjustments  will  also  result  in  an  automatic  upward 
adjustment  of  the  MFF  ceilings  for  commitments  and  payments  in  2023-2027  (in  addition  to  the 
adjustment already implemented for 2022)11 for an estimated amount of EUR 11 billion. The exact 
level  would  be  determined  annually,  depending  on  the  revenue  from  competition  fines  in  the 
previous year. 

Chart 1 - Payments forecast by category 

The  forecast  payments  under  the  MFF  are  not  evenly  distributed  across  the  years.  They 
depend  on  the  expected  evolution  of:  1)  the  phasing-in  of  payments  for  the  new  spending 
programmes (76% of the total payments) and 2) the payments for outstanding commitments from 
the  2014-2020  period  and  earlier  (24%  of  the  payments).  The  estimated  annual  average  of  the 

9 Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053 of 14 December 2020 on the system of own resources of the European 
Union and repealing Decision 2014/335/EU, Euratom, OJ L 424, 15.12.2020, p. 1. 
10 OJ C66 I, 19.2.2019, p.1. 

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outflows is EUR 171 billion.For the first five  years, forecast levels are below the average and for 
the  last  two  years  above  the  average.  The  difference  between  the  peak  year  for  payments  (2027) 
and  the  expected  lowest  years  (2023-2024)  is  around  EUR 29 billion.  Replicating  the  pattern 
observed in prior MFFs, the lower level of payments estimated for the mid-years of the MFF is due 
to the disbursement of most of the closure payments of the previous financial framework and the 
new spending programmes effectively reaching cruising speed in the second half of the MFF. 

However,  seen  in  conjunction  with  NextGenerationEU  (outside  MFF  ceilings),  payments  are 
expected to be heavily frontloaded to 2021-2024 (annual average of EUR 247 billion) thanks to 
the  additional  spending  to  support  Europe’s  economic  recovery  and  Member  States’  resilience 
capacity. From this perspective, 2027 would in fact be the year with the lowest outflows over the 
period, as NextGenerationEU payments will have to be completed by the end of 2026. 

The forecast  payments  for  the MFF spending leave a  margin under the  payment  ceiling of the 
MFF  of  EUR 6.2 billion  over  the  period.  Considering  the  effect  on  the  ceilings  of  the  future 
programme-specific  adjustments,  the  overall  margin  may  reach  EUR 17.2 billion.  Such  larger 
margin compared to the assumption prior to the adoption of the MFF is mainly due to two factors: 
1)  the  necessary  focus  on  implementing  the  temporary  EU  recovery  and  emergency  funds  under 
NextGenerationEU  and  2)  the  more  conservative  forecast  for  the  new  programmes  following  the 
late adoption of the 2021-2027 MFF and certain programme-relevant  legislation, in  particular for 
cohesion policy. 

On an annual basis, payment needs are well below the payment ceilings  up to 2025 inclusive 
by an estimated total margin of EUR 19.2 billion, while the needs in 2026 and 2027 appear above 
by EUR 13 billion. This is a logical consequence of the payment ceiling being set at a stable level 
in  real  terms,  while  implementation  is  expected  to  follow  the  cyclical  path  of  previous  MFFs. 
Pursuant  to  the  automatic  adjustment  mechanism  of  Article  11(1)(b)  of  the  MFF  Regulation,  the 
amounts  not  spent  in  a  given  year  will  increase  the  ceilings  for  the  future  years.  Therefore,  the 
anticipated  margins  up  to  2025  will  be  transformed  into  increased  ceilings  in  2026  and  2027 
(within the limits set by Article 11(3) of the MFF Regulation). Considering this adjustment to the 
ceilings  and  the  programme-specific  adjustment  of  Article  5  of  the  MFF  Regulation,  the  current 
payments forecast for the last two years of the MFF is compatible with the MFF payment ceiling. 

11 COM(2021)365 of 7.6.2021 

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Chart 2 - Payments forecast vs MFF payment ceiling 

2.1. Payments in relation to new commitments 

This  year’s  forecast  provides  an  updated  estimate  of  the  overall  payment  needs  in  relation  to  the 
commitments under the new MFF taking account of the actual start of implementation of the new 
programmes, without prejudice to the outcome of the respective ongoing programming procedures. 
Compared  to  the  expectationsduring  the  negotiations  of  the  MFF  package,  the  updated  estimates 
are lower by some EUR 3.3 billion (less than 0.3% of the payment ceiling). 

The COVID-19 pandemic brought enormous challenges to our economies, which triggered decisive 
policy  action  and  instilled  a  renewed  momentum  to  the  negotiation  process  of  the  new  MFF  and 
spending programmes.  However, for  cohesion  policy, maritime policy and  the Just Transition 
Fund,  the  accumulated  delays  in  adopting  the  MFF,  the  Common  Provisions  Regulation  and  the 
corresponding sectoral  legislation will have an impact  on the  adoption of the 2021-2027 national 
programmes. Despite the simplifications introduced in  the new legislative framework to  facilitate 
the  adoption  of  national  programmes  and  the  early  engagement  of  the  Commission  with  national 
authorities, it now appears that there will be a need for a significant re-programming in line with 
Article 7 of the MFF Regulation, as was the case in the 2014-2020 programming period. The latest 
Commission  assessment,  based  on  the  ongoing  informal  discussions  with  the  Member  States, 
suggests that around 50% of the national programmes are expected to be adopted in 2021, while the 
remaining programmes will be adopted in 2022. For the Just Transition Fund the expectation is that 
most  of  the  programmes  will  be  adopted  in  2022.  The  re-programming  of  commitments  implies 
that  the  tranches  of  annual  pre-financing  covering  both  2021  and  2022  will  be  due  in  2022.  The 
present  forecast  is,  therefore,  based  on  the  payment  claims’  statistics  of  the  2014-2020 
programming period, which provide the most recent historical benchmark. This approach is subject 
to  revision  once  the  actual  implementation  of  the  new  period  is  launched  and  the  effects  of  the 
simplications introduced in the new legislative framework can be fully factored in. 

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The payment estimates for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) are also revised downwards. 
The CAP transitional Regulation12 extends most of the 2014-2020 CAP rules during a transitional 
period in 2021 and 2022, which will ensure continuous support to agriculture in the essential post-
COVID-19 recovery phase. However, it also implies that the implementation of the reformed CAP 
will start only in 2023. Therefore, Rural Development programmes are assumed to reach cruising 
speed of implementation later in the MFF, backloading more payments after 2027. 

The  speed  of  implementation  for  both  cohesion  policy  and  the  CAP  may  also  be  affected  by  the 
additional availability of NextGenerationEU financing. 

For most of the EU programmes centrally managed by the Commission, 2022 will be the first full 
year of operation. After a slower start due to the negotiation process, the implementation of these 
programmes is expected to progressively reach cruising speed level. 

2.2. Payments on pre-2021 commitments 

The Commission’s forecast for payments stemming from pre-2021 commitments (RAL for reste à 
liquider)  is  updated  to  take  into  account  the  expenditure  of  the  2021  voted  budget  and  the  2022 
draft budget proposal. 

Compared  to  last  year’s  forecast,  the  overall  estimated  payments  are  relatively  unchanged. 
However,  the  distribution  across  years  is  revised  in  particular  for  the  2014-2020  cohesion  policy 
programmes where implementation is now running at full speed. From 2021 to 2023, in line with 
the amendment of Regulation (EU) No 1303/201313 the annual pre-financing will be 2%. Payment 
projections  are  based  on  the  latest  Member  States’  forecast  (January  2021),  past  experience  and 
available  information  regarding  the  implementation  on  the  ground.  The  last  accounting  year  for 
those funds ends on 30 June 2024. As of 2025 no further payment claims are expected. That is why 
most of the payments previously forecast for 2025 and 2026 are now expected in 2022 and 2023. 

For  Rural  Development  programmes,  the  annual  payment  distribution  is  updated  based  on  the 
planned spending in the Draft Budget 2022. 

The payments on the RAL for the other programmes (notably those implemented centrally by the 
Commission  in  direct  management)  continue  to  be  set  on  the  basis  of  experience  built  over  the 
2014-2020 period, and taking into account the latest project information. 

2.3.  De-commitments 

The  overall  amount  of  de-commitments  for  2021-2027,  linked  to  the  commitments  made  before 
2021, is forecast at EUR 8.4 billion, which is consistent with the forecast issued last year. The de-
commitment levels vary  across MFF headings as the forecast takes into account de-commitments 
already made and de-commitments identified during the preparation of the Draft Budget 2022. 

For  the  2014-2020  European  Structural  and  Investment  Funds  (ESIF)  it  is  assumed  that  the  de-
commitment  rates  observed  at  the  closure  of  the  2007-2013  programmes  would  be  replicated. 

12 Regulation (EU) 2020/2220 of 23 December 2020, OJ L 437, 28.12.2020, p. 1. 
13 Regulation (EU) 2020/1542, OJ L 356, 26.10.2020, p. 1. 

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These  de-commitments  may  be  expected  around  2024-2026,  following  the  last  payments  of  the 
2014-2020 national programmes. A two-year lag may apply to the European Agricultural Fund for 
Rural Development, in view of the extended transition period for the 2014-2020 rules. 

For  the  programmes  centrally  managed  by  the  Commission  the  forecast  of  de-commitments  is 
based on the most recent project-level information.  

The de-commitments are forecast for the entire period covered by the report. The exact year of de-
commitment would depend on the closure process of individual projects and actions, and cannot be 
forecast with precision. 

As  regards  the  commitments  of  the  new  period,  given  that  2022  will  be  the  first  year  of  full 
implementation for most programmes, any assumption of the potential de-commitments associated 
to them would be premature at this stage. 

2.4.  NextGenerationEU 

The  non-repayable  part  of  NextGenerationEU  constitutes  external  assigned  revenue.  This  report 
presents  the  expected  disbursements  under  NextGenerationEU  by  benefitting  programme  (see 
Table 2)14.  The  estimates  are  established  on  the  basis  of  the  annual  commitment  instalments 
provided in the financial programming accompanying the Draft Budget 2022. 

NextGenerationEU spending will be used to frontload additional financial support in the first years 
of  the  2021-2027  period,  targeting  reform  priorities  and  reinforcing  programmes  that  are  key  to 
Europe’s recovery. The  frontloading is  reflected  in  the concentration of commitments over 2021-
2023 and also in the expected payments’ distribution, whereby 58% of the disbursements fall over 
the first three years of the MFF. 

The  centrepiece  of  NextGenerationEU  is  the  Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility  (RRF),  which 
accounts  for  80%  of  the  non-repayable  allocations.  NextGenerationEU  outflows  are  therefore 
largely determined by the pace of disbursements for the RRF. Payment requests under the RRF will 
take  place  up  to  twice  a  year  per  Member  State  upon  achievement  of  the  milestones  and  targets 
established  in  the  Council  Implementing  Decisions  adopted  pursuant  to  the  RRF  Regulation. 
Moreover,  up  to  13%  of  the  total  support  may  be  paid  upfront  as  pre-financing.  The  process  of 
submission of Member States’ plans and their assessment by the Commission is currently on-going. 
At the cut off date of the forecast (27 May 2021), 19 Member States had submitted their recovery 
and  resilience  plans,  with  the  remaining  8  plans  under  preparation  by  national  authorities.  The 
forecast  provided  in  Table  2  is  based  on  a  first  analysis  of  the  available  plans  and  other 
complementary  information  obtained  during  the  dialogue  between  national  authorities  and  the 
Commission.  As  the  submissions  and  assessments  of  national  plans  are  still  in  progress,  the 
payment  forecast  is  subject  to  future adjustments. The planned disbursement profiles will depend 
on the modalities set in the Council implementing decisions. 

14 Given its demand-driven delivery mechanism, no forecast is available for the loan component of the Recovery and 
Resilience Facility (similarly to other loan-based instruments implemented outside the budget). 

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REACT-EU  is  the  second  largest  part  of  NextGenerationEU,  representing  12%  of  the  non-
repayable  support.  It  provides  a  bridge  between  the  2014-2020  and  the  2021-2027  programming 
periods for cohesion policy, distributing additional resources in 2021 and 2022 through some of the 
existing  cohesion  policy  funds  -  European  Regional  Development  Fund  (ERDF),  the  European 
Social Fund (ESF), the European Fund for Aid to the Most Deprived (FEAD) - as well as the Youth 
Employment  Initiative  (YEI).  All  programme  modifications  in  relation  to  the  2021  REACT-EU 
allocation will be completed and the 11% pre-financing will be paid before the end of 2021. Interim 
and final payments are concentrated over 2022-2024, in line with REACT-EU objectives to speed 
up  the  delivery  by  using  existing  programmes  and  providing  full  flexibility  of  implementation 
rules. Final closure payments will take place by the end of 2025. 

The other five programmes supported through NextGenerationEU take up the remaining 8% of its 
non-repayable  allocation.  The  forecast  of  payments  considers  the  experience  with  predecessor 
programmes,  taking  into  account  the  shorter  cycle  of  commitments  and  the  focus  on  immediate 
recovery  needs.  For  InvestEU,  the  forecast  reflects  the  expected  provisioning  schedule  of  the 
budgetary guarantee. The Just Transition Fund, which is completely new, will be affected by the 
delays in the adoption of the MFF, the Common Provisions Regulation and the sectoral legislation. 
The adoption of most of the Member States’ programmes, and pre-financing payments are expected 
in 2022, and almost all disbursements are projected to be spread over 2023-2026. 

The forecast reflects the fact that all NextGenerationEU resources must be committed by the end of 
2023, and therefore no de-commitments are expected. 

As regards the financing of the payment needs for NextGenerationEU programmes, the entry into 
force of the new Own Resources Decision on 1 June 2021 enables the Commission to swiftly start 
the borrowing operations to raise the necessary funds. 

2.5.  Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments 

The build-up of outstanding commitments (or RAL for reste-a-liquider) is a natural consequence of 
the implementation of the EU budget with differentiated appropriations and the increasing volume 
of  the  EU  budget  over  time  in  nominal  terms.  There  was  EUR 303 billion  of  outstanding 
commitments  at  the  start  of  the  2021-2027  MFF.  By  end  2027,  most  of  those  pre-2021 
commitments  would  be  paid  (97%)  or  de-committed  (3%),  with  marginal  amounts  to  be  paid 
afterwards. At the same time, the new commitments of the 2021-2027 programmes will start being 
implemented. During the seven years of the MFF, 74% of those commitments will be followed by 
payments.  This  would  leave  EUR 316.9 billion  as  RAL  at  the  end  of  2027,  which  represents  a 
nominal increase of 4.8% over the period of seven years. However, comparing the evolution of the 
RAL in constant prices15, there would be a reduction of 7.0% between the level at the start of 2021 
and projection for the end of 2027. 

The change with respect to last year’s projection of a 5% nominal decrease at end-2025 stems from 
the  parameters  in  the  final  agreement  of  the  2021-2027  MFF.  Cohesion  policy  is  of  particular 
relevance:  the  agreement  to  maintain  an  n+3  de-commitment  rule,  in  combination  with  the  late 

8 

 
conclusion of the legislative process, imply a similar spending pattern to the 2014-2020 period (see 
point 2.1). Consequently, the overall payment needs would remain below the commitment levels, 
leading to an increase in the RAL. 

The annual evolution of the RAL volume is not even, it develops in function of the ratio of annual 
payments to annual commitments. The 2021-2027 period would see a historical peak of the RAL at 
the end of 2023, when it may exceed the level of EUR 475 billion. This is a temporary effect due to 
the  implementation  of  NextGenerationEU,  which  will  be  entirely  neutralised  by  the  end  of  2026 
when payments on NextGenerationEU commitments will have to be completed.  

3.  FORECAST OF INFLOWS OF THE EU BUDGET 2021-2027 

The  EU  budget  is  financed  by  own  resources  and  other  revenue.  In  addition,  with  the  entry  into 
force  of  the  new  Own  Resources  Decision,  the  Union  is  empowered  to  borrow  funds  to  finance 
NextGenerationEU.  The  Commission  will  mobilise  the  funds  through  operations  on  international 
capital  markets  depending  on  the  financing  needs  of  NextGenerationEU’s  spending  programmes 
(see point 2.4) on the basis of the funding strategy presented in April 202116. The current forecast 
focuses on the revenue necessary to finance the budget expenditure within the MFF. 

The  overall  amount  of  own  resources  needed  to  finance  the  budget  is  determined  by  the  total 
expenditure less other revenue. Accordingly, the forecast of the EU budget revenue for 2021-2027 
is  based  on  the  principle  that  expenditure  must  be  matched  by  revenue;  therefore  total  revenue 
equals total expenditure. 

As of 2021, in line with the Withdrawal Agreement (part V), the United Kingdom contributes to the 
EU  budget  in  relation  to  outstanding  commitments  of  the  previous  financial  frameworks  (i.e.  the 
RAL  at  the  end  of  2020)  as  well  as  to  pensions  and  other  liabilities  laid  down  in  the  financial 
settlement. The United Kingdom’s contribution constitutes ‘other revenue’ of the EU budget and is 
not  part  of  the  Union’s  own  resources.  It  will  progressively  phase-out  as  the  outstanding 
commitments are being settled. 

Other  miscellaneous  elements  not  forming  part  of  the  Union’s  own  resources  are  assumed  to 
remain nominally constant at the level of the 2022 draft budget. 

The  remaining  financing  –  national  contributions  and  customs  duties  –  accounts  for  the  vast 
majority of the revenue needed to balance the budget expenditure. The projections include the new 
own resource based on non-recycled plastic packaging waste and the refined own resource based on 
the Value Added Tax as well as Member States’ increased retention rate of customs duties to cover 
their collection costs. They do not take into account future proposals on new own resources that the 
Commission has committed to presentin accordance with the interinstitutional agreement. 

On average for the period 2021-2027, national contributions are projected at EUR 144.9 billion per 
year or 0.91% of the EU’s Gross National Income. The spending cycle and the phasing out of the 

15 The constant prices are established by applying a 2% fixed annual deflator to the nominal amounts. 
16 COM(2021) 250 final of 14 April 2021 

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United Kingdom contribution mainly determine the development of national contributions over the 
forecast  period. The somewhat  decreasing  expenditure due to  the  gradual  completion of previous 
programmes  (to  which  the  United  Kingdom  also  contributes)  leads  to  decreasing  national 
contributions in 2022 and 2023. From 2024 onwards, increasing expenditure resulting from the new 
programmes entering cruising speed and the United Kingdom contribution to the RAL phasing out 
will keep national contributions increasing steadily through 2027. 

Chart 3 - Revenue forecast for financing the MFF 2021-2027 

In  any  given  year,  the  total  own  resources  collected  by  the  Union  may  not  exceed  the  Own 
Resources  ceiling  set  in  the  Own  Resources  Decision.  The  new  Decision17  increases  this  ceiling 
from  1.20%  to  1.40%  of  Gross  National  Income  of  the  EU  Member  States,  with  an  additional 
temporary increase of 0.6% of EU GNI for covering all liabilities of the Union from the borrowing 
on the capital markets to fund NextGenerationEU. With the conclusion of the approval process, the 
Own Resources Decision entered into force with retroactive application as of 1 January 2021. 

As  borrowing  starts  in  2021,  the  EU  budget  will  provide  for  the  payments  of  interests  on  the 
borrowed  funds  and  allocated  to  non-repayable  support.  The  own  resources  necessary  to  finance 
those costs are counted within the temporary increase of 0.6% of EU GNI of the Own Resources 
ceiling.  Over  2021-2027  a  total  of  EUR 14.9 billion  is  planned  for  financing  the  costs  of 

17 Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053 of 14 December 2020, OJ L 424/1, 15.12.2020 

10 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                 
 
NextGenerationEU18. Across the years, the planned costs follow a backloaded profile to reflect the 
progressive rollout of borrowing, and with a view to allowing repayments of principal in 2027. 

4.  CONCLUSIONS 

This  long-term  forecast  report  is  the  first  after  the  adoption  of  the  2021-2027  MFF  and  the 
conclusion of the negotiation process for the spending programmes of the new period. The forecast 
establishes a comprehensive view on the expected outflows from the EU budget in the next 7 years, 
including the estimates for NextGenerationEU. 

The  effects  of  the  COVID-19  pandemic  are  felt  on  the  long-term  projections  for  the  EU  budget 
payments. The negotiations on the MFF and NextGenerationEU were concluded late in 2020, with 
the  negotiations  on  some  sectoral  legislation  being  finalised  with  some  delay.  For  many 
programmes of the new MFF, the  year 2022 will be the first  year of full implementation. A later 
start  of  the  cohesion  policy,  similar  to  what  was  experienced  in  2014-2020,  is  now  anticipated. 
Payment projections (and corresponding national contributions) are below what was assumed while 
the  MFF  package  was  still  under  negotiation.  The  delayed  start  of  the  new  programming  period 
brings the MFF payment needs well within the limits of the payment ceilings. 

Spending in the first half of the MFF period will be mostly marked by the priority investments in 
recovery from the pandemic and in enhancing the resilience of the EU. Thanks to the frontloaded 
NextGenerationEU,  the  highest  levels  of  spending  from  the  budget  will  come  in  2021-2024, 
phasing  out  towards  2027  when  funding  will  be  channelled  through  the  MFF  only.  The  key  to 
confirm  the  projected  pattern  will  be  the  first  disbursements  under  the  Recovery  and  Resilience 
Facility in the second half of 2021, as well as their size. 

At  the  end  of  this  MFF  the  level  of  outstanding  commitments  (RAL)  will  increase  nominally  by 
4.8%,  with  temporary  peaks  in  2022-2023  due  to  NextGenerationEU  –  an  effect  which  will  be 
neutralised by the end of its implementation in 2026. However, when compared in constant prices, 
the RAL would actually decrease by 7.0% between the level at the start of 2021 and projection for 
the end of 2027.  

The  potential  to  accelerate  the  implementation  of  the  MFF  in  the  second  half  of  the  period 
compared to the baseline forecast established with the present report and to reverse the trend of a 
nominally growing RAL, will depend on the effective absorption of the new generation of shared 
management funds. The payment needs, in particular for cohesion policy, will be closely monitored 
to  assess  the  effects  of  the  simplications  introduced  in  the  new  legislative  framework  in 
accelerating implementation. 

18  Without  prejudice  to  introducing  new  own  resources  with  a  view  to  covering  NextGenerationEU  repayment  and 
interest costs. 

11 

 
                                                 
 
 
ANNEX I –  FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 

1. 

Specific assumptions by main spending elements  

1.1. 2014-2020 ESI Funds and cohesion policy funds 2021-2027 

As in the 2014-2020 MFF, the first year of the new MFF is focused on adopting the sector-specific 
legislation, the completion of the previous programming period and starting the implementation on 
the ground for the new period. 

Political agreements were reached on all cohesion policy legislative acts either at the end of 2020 or 
early in 2021. The completion of the legislative process for the Common Provisions Regulation and 
all  linked  sectoral  legal  bases  affects  the  timing  of  the  adoption  of  2021-2027  operational 
programmes.  Approximatively  50%  of  the  commitment  appropriations  allocated  for  cohesion 
policy in the 2021 budget are expected to be reprogrammed under the provisions of Article 7 of the 
MFF Regulation, in equal proportions to the years 2022 to 2025. Therefore the present long-term 
forecast for the 2021-2027 cohesion policy funds is based on the 2014-2020 experience of interim 
payment  claims submitted as a percentage of the overall envelope, while earlier  reports relied on 
statistics from the 2007-2013 period. Specific payment profiles are used for each of the funds. 

The forecast for payments in relation to the 2014-2020 programming period is largely based on past 
experience, information regarding the implementation on the ground and Member States’ January 
2021 forecasts. The payments in 2021 and 2022 reflect the authorised budget and the Draft Budget, 
respectively. For the subsequent years, the implementation deadlines set out in the legislation are a 
key determining factor. The last accounting year ends on 30 June 2024 and the last final payment 
claims should be submitted by 31 July 2024. Against this background, it is assumed that 60% of the 
claims  remaining  to  be  submitted  after  2022  would  come  in  2023  and  40%  in  2024.  For  2023 
payments will cover also the annual pre-financing of 2% in line with the amendment of Regulation 
(EU) No 1303/2013. 

1.2. Rural Development 

The  implementation  of  the  new  Common  Agricultural  Policy  (CAP)  will  start  in  2023  only.  To 
ensure  continuous  support  to  agriculture,  the  CAP  transitional  Regulation  extends  by  two  years 
most of the rules of the 2014-2020 period. The payment forecast under the European Agricultural 
Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) takes into account the impact of this change that also delays 
the closure of the running programmes. The pre-financing of the new programmes will accordingly 
start only in 2023 and is applied to the 2023-2027 part of the envelopes only. 

1.3. Direct payments and market measures under the Common Agricultural Policy 

The  appropriations  for  the  European  Agricultural  Guarantee  Fund  (EAGF)  are  mostly  non-
differentiated, i.e; commitments made in a given year are fully matched by payments in the same 
year’s  budget.  The  bulk  of  the  allocations  is  related  to  direct  payments  to  farmers,  which  are 
usually  reimbursed  to  Member  States  during  the  first  months  of  the  following  budget  year.  The 
commitments  (on  the  basis  of  which  the  payments  are  projected)  are  aligned  to  the  financial 
programming  accompanying  the  Draft  Budget  2022.  The  first  two  rounds  of  transfers  between 
pillars of the Common Agricultural policy resulted in a net transfer of EUR 1.2 billion from pillar I 
(EAGF) to pillar II (EAFRD), which has also been taken into account for the payment estimations. 

12 

 
1.4. Other programmes and funds 

For  all  other  spending  items  (e.g.  research  and  innovation,  large  scale  infrastructure  projects, 
internal  and  external  policies)  the  forecasts  for  payments  on  the  commitments  authorised  in  the 
current financial framework are based on the Draft Budget 2022 and the accompanying schedules 
of payments by individual budget lines, as provided in Working Document XIII accompanying the 
Draft  Budget.  The  expected  average  pattern  of  implementation  for  the  first  two  commitment 
tranches (2021 and 2022) is extrapolated to the commitments for the years 2023 to 2027. 

Those  commitments  are  expected  to  follow  the  financial  programming  accompanying  the  2022 
Draft  Budget  including,  where  relevant,  the  additional  top-ups  stemming  from  the  programme 
specific  adjustment  mechanism  of  Article  5  of  the  MFF  Regulation.  For  Horizon  Europe,  the 
European  Parliament  and  the  Council  agreed  to  make  available  again  over  the  MFF  period  an 
amount  of  EUR 500 million  in  2018  prices  in  appropriations  resulting  from  total  or  partial  non-
implementation  of  research  programmes,  in  accordance  with  Article  15(3)  of  the  Financial 
Regulation. The forecast of outflows also takes into account those additional commitments. 

As for Heading 6 - Neighbourhood and the World, at this stage of the programming it is premature 
to  assess  the  effects  of  the  novel  architecture  of  the  instruments  (mostly  the  Neighbourhood, 
Development and International Cooperation Instrument - Global Europe) in respect of the potential 
re-use  of  de-commitments,  carry-over  provisions  and  of  the  mobilisation  of  the  emerging 
challenges and priorities cushion. 

The forecast of the payments in relation to outstanding commitments at the end of 2020 is set on 
the basis of the experience built over the past MFF periods and takes into account the latest project 
information. 

1.5. Administration 

Administrative  expenditure  (Heading  7)  is  implemented  as  non-differentiated  appropriations,  i.e. 
commitments made in a given year are fully matched by payments in the same year’s budget. The 
present  forecast  transforms  fully  the  financial  programming  of  commitment  appropriations  into 
payments.  No  payments  are  included  for  the  potential  use  of  the  margins  between  the  Heading’s 
ceiling and the planned commitment appropriations. 

The same approach is applied to the majority of the EU-funded decentralised agencies (all of which 
are outside Heading 7). 

1.6. Special Instruments 

Special instruments fall under two categories: 

  Thematic instruments – traditionally set up to provide support in specific unforeseen events 
such  as  natural  disasters,  mass  redundancies,  humanitarian  and  other  crises.  Due  to  their 
nature, forecasting over  a longer time horizon is  not  possible. The present  report includes 
only the planned expenditure for 2021 and 2022 as per the respective budget proposals. 

13 

 
The only exception is the Brexit Adjustment Reserve, to be implemented in the 2021-2027 
MFF  to  counter  the  consequences  in  Member  States  following  the  withdrawal  of  the  UK 
from the EU. The total envelope for this reserve is fixed at EUR 5 billion (2018 prices). The 
Commission  tabled  in  December  2020  a  proposal  for  a  Regulation  for  the  Reserve19  with 
disbursements  planned  in  2021  and  in  2024.  The  present  forecast  reflects  this  proposal, 
pending the outcome of the negotiation process. 

  Non-thematic instruments – subject to specific conditions, they make it possible to allocate 
additional amounts for specific MFF programmes. Their mobilisation, and consequently the 
related  payment  needs,  cannot  be  forecast.  For  the  Flexibility  Instrument,  the  payments 
stemming  from  past  mobilisations  are  provided  in  the  Communication  on  the  technical 
adjustment  of  the  MFF  for  2022.  These  payments  are  included  in  the  overall  payment 
estimates of the MFF headings provided in Table 1. 

The expenditure covered by the mobilisation of special instruments is counted over and above the 
MFF ceilings and is excluded for the purpose of the establishing the margins for commitments and 
payments. 

2.  Assumptions for forecasting revenue 

2.1. Applicable legislation 

The Own Resources Decision 202020 sets new rules for the Union’s own resources, applicable as of 
1  January  2021.  For  that  reason,  the  revenue  forecast  presented  in  this  Report  is  based  on  the 
parameters of the Own Resources Decision 2020 for all years of the reporting period (2021-2027). 
By contrast, the Budget 2021 was based on the parameters of the Own Resources Decision 201421. 

2.2. Traditional own resources 

Customs duties are projected to grow over the period 2023-2027 at the same rate as nominal Gross 
National Income of each Member State starting from the level of gross customs duties projected for 
the Draft Budget 2022. 25% of the customs duties will be retained by Member States as collection 
costs, as laid down in the Own Resources Decision 2020. This increase compared to 20% under the 
Own Resources Decision 2014 reduces the revenue from traditional own resources, which will need 
to be offset by higher national contributions. 

2.3. National contributions 

National contributions fill the gap between traditional own resources and other revenue on the one 
hand and forecast expenditure on the other. They have for a long time included the Gross National 
Income-based  own  resource  and  the  Value  Added  Tax-based  own  resource.  The  Own  Resources 
Decision 2020 introduces a new own resource based on non-recycled plastic packaging waste. The 

19 COM(2020) 854 final of 25.12.2020, 2020/0380(COD) 
20 Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053 of 14 December 2020 on the system of own resources of the European 
Union, OJ L 424/1, 15.12.2020. 
21  Council  Decision  on  the  system  of  own  resources  of  the  European  Union,  2014/335/EU,  Euratom,  OJ  L168/105, 
7.6.2014. 

14 

 
                                                 
 
parameters for the own resources laid down in the Own Resources Decision determine the Member 
States’ share in the total amount of national contributions that is needed to balance the EU budget. 

2.4. Other revenue 

Other revenue of the EU budget traditionally include staff contributions, revenue accruing from the 
administrative  operation  of  the  institutions,  contributions  and  refunds  in  connection  with  Union 
agreements  and  programmes,  interest  on  late  payments  and  fines,  revenue  from  borrowing  and 
lending operations, and miscellaneous revenue  – as  well as  surpluses from  previous  years. Given 
their inherent volatility, most of those components are difficult to forecast. Therefore, the amount 
considered in  the 2022 draft budget  (i.e. EUR 2 billion) is  assumed to  remain nominally  constant 
over the period covered by the report. 

From 2021, in addition to the above mentioned items, other revenue of the EU budget includes the 
United  Kingdom’s  contribution  related  to  outstanding  commitments  (RAL)  for  which  the  United 
Kingdom  is  liable,  pension  obligations  and  other  components  of  the  financial  settlement,  as  laid 
down in the Withdrawal Agreement22. This is also reflected in the proposed financing of the 2022 
Draft Budget. 

The contribution of the United Kingdom related to outstanding commitments at 31 December 2020 
is determined by applying the United Kingdom’s provisional financing share to the forecast RAL 
payments  for each  year  of the 2021-2027 period. The resulting annual  contribution  is  established 
taking into account the payment modalities set out in Article 148 of the Withdrawal Agreement. 

The  contribution  to  pension  liabilities  cannot  be  forecast,  as  it  needs  to  be  determined  annually 
based on actual beneficiaries, accumulated post-employment rights and other specific elements laid 
down  in  Article  142  of  the  draft  Withdrawal  Agreement.  The  only  exception  are  the  pension 
liability specified in Article 142.5 of the Withdrawal Agreement, which are provisionally quantified 
and included in the United Kingdom’s contribution for 2021-2027. 

22 All components of the United Kingdom contribution are laid down in Article 148 of the Withdrawal Agreement. The 
forecast  only  includes  components  which  are  quantifiable  at  this  stage,  namely  the  provisional  United  Kingdom 
contribution to the financing of payments resulting from outstanding commitments prior to 2021 for which the United 
Kingdom is liable under Article 140 and pension liabilities specified under Article 142.5 of the Withdrawal Agreement 
as  well  as  the  amounts  the  Union  owes  to  the  United  Kingdom  under  Article  145  (European  Coal  and  Steel 
Community) and Article 146 (Union investment in the EIF). 

15 

 
                                                 
 
ANNEX II – RESULTS OF THE FORECAST 

Table 1 – Long-term forecast of future outflows over 2021-2027 for the MFF 

In EUR billion, current prices 

Budget 2021 

DB 2022 

2023 

2024 

2025 

2026 

2027 

Total  

De-
commitm
ents 

OUTFLOWS 

Commitments ceiling (TAJU 2021) 

Payments ceiling (TAJU 2021) 

163,5 

166,1 

167,5 

168,8 

172,0 

175,6 

179,7 

185,4 

1.212,5 

169,2 

165,5 

168,9 

172,2 

175,7 

179,2 

1.196,8 

     In addition, ceilings' adjustment for MFFR Article 5 (estimate for future years) 

1,7 

1,7 

1,7 

1,8 

4,2 

11,0 

Commitments appropriations total 

Payments appropriations total 

168,6 

170,6 

167,7 

169,7 

174,3 

176,7 

180,8 

188,8 

1.226,7 

169,4 

163,2 

161,9 

166,7 

176,5 

191,4 

1.199,7 

8,4 

Forecast payments in relation to commitments (RAL) originating before 2021 

1. Single Market, Innovation and Digital 

2. Cohesion, Resilience and Values 

      Economic, Social and territorial cohesion 

      Resilience and Values 

3. Natural Resources and Environment 

      Market related expenditure and direct payments 

      Other programmes of Natural Resources and Environment 

4. Migration and Border Management 

5. Security and Defence 

6. Neighbourhood and the World 

7. European Public Administration 

Special Instruments 

Total payments on RAL before 2021 

12,9 

60,8 

59,8 

0,9 

15,8 

0,1 

15,7 

1,5 

0,4 

8,3 

8,1 

52,5 

51,8 

0,7 

11,8 

0,1 

11,7 

1,1 

0,2 

6,0 

5,4 

39,9 

39,5 

0,4 

8,7 

0,1 

8,7 

0,8 

0,3 

5,6 

3,9 

21,4 

21,2 

0,2 

1,2 

0,0 

1,2 

0,3 

0,1 

4,7 

2,7 

1,9 

1,8 

0,1 

0,8 

0,0 

0,8 

0,1 

0,1 

2,0 

2,5 

1,8 

1,7 

0,0 

0,2 

0,2 

0,0 

0,1 

0,8 

2,0 

0,4 

0,3 

0,1 

0,3 

0,3 

0,0 

0,1 

0,9 

37,4 

178,6 

176,2 

2,4 

38,9 

0,3 

38,6 

3,8 

1,4 

28,3 

1,3 

4,0 

3,7 

0,3 

1,7 

1,7 

1,0 

0,1 

0,3 

99,7 

79,7 

60,7 

31,7 

7,7 

5,4 

3,7 

288,5 

8,4 

16 

 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
  
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
In EUR billion, current prices 

Budget 2021 

DB 2022 

2023 

2024 

2025 

2026 

2027 

Total  

Forecast payments in relation to commitments of the MFF 2021-2027 

1. Single Market, Innovation and Digital 

2. Cohesion, Resilience and Values 

     Economic, Social and territorial cohesion 

     Resilience and Values 

3. Natural Resources and Environment 

     Market related expenditure and direct payments 

     Other programmes of Natural Resources and Environment 

4. Migration and Border Management 

5. Security and Defence 

6. Neighbourhood and the World 

7. European Public Administration 

Special Instruments 

Total payments on 2021-2027 MFF commitments 

4,2 

5,6 

2,1 

3,5 

41,0 

40,3 

0,8 

1,2 

0,2 

2,5 

10,4 

5,6 

70,9 

13,6 

9,8 

4,6 

5,2 

44,7 

40,2 

4,5 

2,1 

1,0 

6,4 

10,8 

1,3 

14,3 

16,0 

9,4 

6,6 

48,0 

41,5 

6,4 

2,9 

1,1 

9,0 

11,2 

0,0 

17,1 

31,9 

23,8 

8,1 

52,3 

41,6 

10,6 

3,3 

1,6 

11,5 

11,6 

1,1 

18,8 

53,5 

44,5 

9,0 

55,7 

41,8 

14,0 

3,8 

1,7 

13,7 

11,9 

0,0 

20,8 

58,9 

48,5 

10,4 

58,2 

41,9 

16,3 

4,1 

2,0 

14,8 

12,2 

0,0 

21,7 

72,0 

59,3 

12,7 

59,9 

42,0 

17,9 

4,4 

2,2 

14,8 

12,6 

0,0 

110,5 

247,7 

192,1 

55,6 

359,9 

289,4 

70,5 

21,8 

9,7 

72,9 

80,8 

8,0 

89,7 

102,5 

130,3 

159,1 

171,1 

187,7 

911,2 

* The total commitments and estimated payments do not include unallocated margins. 
** The amounts for special instruments cover the Solidarity and Emergency Aid Reserve and the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (2021 and 2022 budgets) and the 
Brexit  Adjustment  Reserve  as  per  the  proposal  by  the  Commission.  Payments  related  to  the  mobilisations  of  the  Flexibility  Instrument  are  included  within  the  respective 
headings. 
*** Totals do not tally due to rounding. 

17 

 
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
Table 2 – Long-term forecast of outflows for NextGenerationEU 
In EUR billion, current prices23 

2021 

2022 

2023 

2024 

2025 

2026 

2027  TOTAL 

Budgetary commitments - indicative annual distribution 

 NGEU (excl. loans) 

164,61  143,50  112,87 

0,02 

0,02 

0,02 

0,02  421,07 

Payment appropriations - forecast  

Horizon Europe 

0,10 

1,98 

1,78 

1,16 

0,35 

0,05 

0,00 

5,41 

InvestEU 

0,17 

1,24 

1,24 

1,24 

1,02 

1,16 

0,00 

6,07 

REACT-EU 

7,12 

8,65 

13,28 

19,03 

2,53 

0,00 

0,00 

50,62 

RRF non-repayable 
support 

Union Civil Protection 
Mechanism (RescEU) 

European Agricultural Fund 
for Rural Development 

58,24 

63,00 

77,48 

53,92 

42,48 

42,85 

0,01  337,97 

0,20 

0,43 

0,54 

0,31 

0,28 

0,25 

0,04 

2,06 

0,60 

2,44 

2,70 

1,94 

0,38 

0,00 

0,00 

8,07 

Just Transition Fund 

0,06 

0,23 

2,18 

3,26 

3,26 

1,90 

0,00 

10,87 

Grand Total 

66,48 

77,98 

99,20 

80,85 

50,29 

46,21 

0,06  421,07 

Table 3 – Change in the total outstanding commitments from 2021 to 2027 
in EUR billion, current prices 

RAL end-2020 

Commitments 
2021-2027 

Payments 2021-
2027 

De-commitments 
and others 

RAL end-2027 

(a) 

302,6 

Of which:  

(b) 

1 647,8 

(c ) 

1 620,7 

2014-2020 MFF and earlier*  

302,6 

n/a 

2021-2027 MFF  

NextGenerationEU 

1 226,7 

421,1 

288,5 

911,2 

421,1 

(d) 

-12,7 

-12,7 

(a+b-c+d) 

316,9 

1,5 

315,5 

* The RAL end-2020 includes EUR 4,3 billion generated from third-country contributions to specific programmes of the 
2014-2020 MFF. The corresponding payments are included under the column ‘De-commitments and others’ in the table. 

23 Totals may not tally due to rounding 

18 

 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                 
 
Table 4 – Long-term forecast of future inflows of the EU budget over 2021-2027 

In EUR billion, current prices 

Budget 2021 

DB 2022 

2023 

2024 

2025 

2026 

2027 

INFLOWS 
Own Resources ceiling in % of EU Gross 
National Income 
      of which temporary increase for NGEU 
Own Resources ceiling expressed in EUR 
billion* 
     of which temporary increase for NGEU 

Net amount of traditional own resources** 

National contributions*** 

Total own resources 
     of which own resources to finance 
NGEU liabilities 
Other revenue (incl. provisional UK 
contribution) 
TOTAL REVENUE 

2,00% 

0,60% 

281,8 

84,5 
17,3 
142,2 
159,6 

0,0 

11,0 

170,6 

2,00% 

0,60% 

298,4 

89,5 
17,9 
138,7 
156,6 

0,4 

12,8 

169,4 

2,00% 

0,60% 

308,0 

92,4 
18,5 
134,2 
152,7 

1,0 

10,5 

163,2 

2,00% 

0,60% 

318,0 

95,4 
19,1 
135,4 
154,5 

2,1 

7,5 

2,00% 

0,60% 

328,3 

98,5 
19,7 
142,8 
162,5 

2,7 

4,2 

2,00% 

0,60% 

338,6 

101,6 
20,3 
153,3 
173,6 

3,7 

2,9 

2,00% 

0,60% 

349,1 

104,7 
21,0 
167,7 
188,7 

5,0 

2,6 

161,9 

166,7 

176,5 

191,4 

1.199,7 

Total 2021-
2027 

n/a 

n/a 

n/a 

n/a 
133,9 
1.014,3 
1.148,2 

14,9 

51,4 

* Own Resources ceiling - calculated on the basis of the Spring 2021 economic forecast for the Gross National Income of the EU27 for 2021-2027 
** Traditional own resources are estimated on the basis of 25% retention rate for collection costs.  
*** National contributions include the Gross National Income-based own resource, the reformed Value Added Tax-based own resource and the new own resource based on 
non-recycled plastic packaging waste. 

19