COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT STATISTICAL ANNEX providing background data relevant for the assessment of the 2021 Stability and Convergence Programmes Accompanying the document Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION delivering a Council opinion on the 2021 Stability/Convergence Programme of Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland and Sweden
Date: 2021-06-02
Institutions: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: EU Member State, economic policy, economic recovery, economic reform, economic situation, macroeconomics, public debt, public finance, stability pact, stability programme

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 2.6.2021  SWD(2021) 501 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT STATISTICAL ANNEX  providing background data relevant for the assessment of the 2021 Stability and Convergence Programmes Accompanying the document Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION delivering a Council opinion on the 2021 Stability/Convergence Programme of Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland and Sweden {COM(2021) 501 final} - {COM(2021) 502 final} - {COM(2021) 503 final} - {COM(2021) 504 final} - {COM(2021) 505 final} - {COM(2021) 506 final} - {COM(2021) 507 final} - {COM(2021) 508 final} - {COM(2021) 509 final} - {COM(2021) 510 final} - {COM(2021) 511 final} - {COM(2021) 512 final} - {COM(2021) 513 final} - {COM(2021) 514 final} - {COM(2021) 515 final} - {COM(2021) 516 final} - {COM(2021) 517 final} - {COM(2021) 518 final} - {COM(2021) 519 final} - {COM(2021) 520 final} - {COM(2021) 521 final} - {COM(2021) 522 final} - {COM(2021) 523 final} - {COM(2021) 524 final} - {COM(2021) 525 final} - {COM(2021) 526 final} - {COM(2021) 527 final}  
 
 
Table of Contents 

1. BELGIUM ................................................................................................................................ 5 

2. BULGARIA ............................................................................................................................ 13 

3. CZECHIA ............................................................................................................................... 21 

4. DENMARK ............................................................................................................................. 29 

5. GERMANY ............................................................................................................................. 37 

6. ESTONIA ............................................................................................................................... 46 

7. IRELAND ............................................................................................................................... 54 

8. GREECE ................................................................................................................................ 62 

9. SPAIN .................................................................................................................................... 70 

10. FRANCE .............................................................................................................................. 78 

11. CROATIA............................................................................................................................. 86 

12. ITALY .................................................................................................................................. 94 

13. CYPRUS ............................................................................................................................. 102 

14. LATVIA ............................................................................................................................. 110 

15. LITHUANIA ....................................................................................................................... 118 

16. LUXEMBOURG .................................................................................................................. 126 

17. HUNGARY ......................................................................................................................... 134 

18. MALTA.............................................................................................................................. 142 

19. THE NETHERLANDS ......................................................................................................... 150 

20. AUSTRIA ........................................................................................................................... 158 

21. POLAND ............................................................................................................................ 166 

22. PORTUGAL ........................................................................................................................ 174 

23. ROMANIA .......................................................................................................................... 182 

24. SLOVENIA ......................................................................................................................... 190 

25. SLOVAKIA ......................................................................................................................... 198 

26. FINLAND ........................................................................................................................... 206 

27. SWEDEN ............................................................................................................................ 214 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
This  Statistical  Annex  provides  background  data  relevant  for  the  assessment  of  Member 
States’ 2021 Stability and Convergence Programmes. For each Member State, it contains the 
following tables: 

Table  1  (Macroeconomic  developments  and  forecasts)  shows  the  main  macroeconomic 
data  –  real  GDP  growth  and  main  expenditure  components,  output  gap,  employment, 
unemployment, labour productivity, inflation, GDP deflator, compensation of employees, and 
the  net  borrowing/lending  vis-à-vis  the  rest  of  the  world.  The  figures  from  the  Stability  or 
Convergence Programme are shown side-by side with those of the Commission 2021 spring 
forecast (for which the cut-off date was 30 April 2021), thus highlighting possible differences 
in the macroeconomic scenario underlying the Stability or Convergence Programme.  

Table 2a (Main indicators for fiscal surveillance) includes the relevant indicators that are 
used  for  fiscal  guidance  at  this  stage.  It  also  show  the  standard  Stability  and  Growth  Pact 
indicators. 

Table 2b (General  government budgetary position) shows data on the main revenue and 
expenditure  variables  and  the  deficit  in  the  Stability  or  Convergence  Programme,  in 
comparison  to  the  Commission  forecast.  The  table  also  includes  a  number  of  additional 
indicators used for the assessment of the budgetary projections in the Programme.1 

Box: Indicators used in the assessment of the Stability and Convergence Programmes 

Traditionally,  the  fiscal  stance  is  defined  as  a  measure  of  the  year-on-year  change  in  the 
general government’s budgetary position. It may serve to measure the impact of fiscal policy 
on aggregate demand in an economy, as well as the speed at which the underlying budgetary 
situation  converges  towards  fiscal  targets.  Using  the  same  indicator  to  gauge  two  different 
concepts has been appropriate under the assumption that changes in government expenditure 
were funded entirely by national revenue sources and debt financing, without large external 
transfers. However, in the presence of sizeable transfers from the EU budget  (such as those 
from the Recovery and Resilience Facility or other EU grants), conventional indicators do not 
capture  the  additional  fiscal  impulse  provided  by  the  EU  budget  as  the  related  national 
expenditure is exactly offset by corresponding revenue from the EU.  
The fiscal  stance reported in  Table 2a aims to  assess the economic impulse stemming from 
fiscal policies, nationally financed as well as financed by the EU. It measures the change in 
primary  expenditure  (net  of  discretionary  revenue  measures,  but  including  changes  in 
expenditure  financed  by  the  RRF  and  other  EU  grants),  but,  taking  into  account  the 
exceptional  circumstances  created  by  the  impact  of  the  COVID-19  pandemic,  excluding 
crisis-related temporary emergency measures, relative to the 10-year average potential growth 
rate. 23  

1 For the Stability or Convergence Programmes, the output gap used for the cyclical adjustment is recalculated 
by the Commission services based on the macroeconomic scenario in the Programmes using the commonly 
agreed methodology.  
2  Crisis-related  emergency  measures  generally  aim  at  addressing  the  public  health  situation  and  compensating 
workers and firms for income losses due to lockdown measures and supply chain disruptions. These measures 
are  mostly  of  a  temporary  nature,  but  their  impact  is  contingent  on  the  development  of  the  health  situation. 
While useful in the initial phase of the crisis, these measures are likely to be less efficient to support the recovery 
when the health related emergency gradually wanes.  
3 The computations of the fiscal stance based on the Stability or Convergence Programmes assume no impact of 
crisis related temporary emergency measures in 2023 and beyond.  

2 

 
 
 
                                                 
(1 + 𝑃𝑜𝑡𝑡) ∗ (1 + 𝜋𝑡) ∗ 𝐸𝑡−1 − 𝐸𝑡 + ∆𝑅𝑀𝑡
𝑌𝑡

𝐺).  

𝐺(−𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑔. 𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑝. 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡

Where 𝐸𝑡 = 𝐺𝑡 − 𝐼𝑡 − 𝑈𝑡 −  𝑜𝑛𝑒_𝑜𝑓𝑓𝑠𝑡
The expenditure aggregate comprises primary expenditure (total expenditure G minus interest 
expenditure I), net of cyclical unemployment benefits U and one-off expenditure. ∆RM stands 
for  the  incremental  budgetary  impact  of  revenue  measures  (other  than  one-offs)  excluding 
crisis-related temporary emergency measures.  
The table also presents a fiscal stance as computed in normal times that is without excluding 
crisis-related temporary emergency measures.  
Table 2b also  monitors the  growth  rate of  nationally financed net  (primary)  expenditure.  In 
general, the net expenditure aggregate is calculated as: 

𝐸𝑡 + ∆𝑅𝑀𝑡 = 𝐺𝑡 − 𝐼𝑡 − 𝑈𝑡 − 𝐸𝑈𝑡 −  𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑜𝑓𝑓𝑠𝑡

𝐺 + ∆𝑅𝑀𝑡 

The aggregate is very similar to the one used for the fiscal stance, but excludes expenditure 
financed by the EU budget. Table 2b presents an aggregate where G is calculated as general 
government  expenditure  excluding/including  changes  in  crisis-related  temporary  emergency 
measures,  and ∆RM  representing the incremental budgetary impact of discretionary revenue 
measures  excluding/including crisis-related temporary emergency measures.  
The  table  2b  also  presents  two  additional  versions  focussing  on  the  growth  of  nationally 
financed net current expenditure  
𝑐𝑢𝑟 + ∆𝑅𝑀𝑡 = 𝐺𝑡

𝐺,𝑐𝑢𝑟 + ∆𝑅𝑀𝑡 
(one including and one excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures). 

𝑐𝑢𝑟 − 𝐼𝑡 − 𝑈𝑡 − 𝐸𝑈𝑡

𝑐𝑢𝑟 −  𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑜𝑓𝑓𝑠𝑡

𝐸𝑡

Table  3a  (General  government  debt  developments)  shows  year-on-year  general 
government debt developments and provides a breakdown of the change in the debt ratio as 
per the change in the primary balance, the snowball effect (reflecting the relationship between 
GDP  growth  and  interest  payments)  and  the  stock-flow  adjustment  (i.e.  other  elements  that 
have an impact on the debt, such as differences between cash and accrual recording or the net 
accumulation of financial assets).  

Table 3b (Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators) contains information 
on debt sustainability indicators over the short, medium and long terms (the so-called S0, S1 
and  S2  indicators).  The  estimates  reported  in  the  table  are  based  on  the  Commission  2021 
spring forecast and the updated estimates for ageing-related costs published in the May 2021 
Ageing Report. 

Table  4.1a  (Discretionary  measures  adopted/announced  according  to  the  Programme) 
presents  the  main  discretionary  measures  adopted/announced  in  response  to  the  COVID-19 
outbreak  and  related  economic  recession,  as  reported  by  the  Member  State.  The  table 
distinguishes between temporay and non-temporairy measures and provides the annual profile 
of measures contained in the Programme and their impact on revenues and expenditures.  

Table  4.1b  (Stock  of  guarantees  adopted/announced  according  to  the  Programme) 
presents  the  main  guarantee  schemes  in  place,  in  particular  those  adopted/announced  in 
response  to  the  COVID-19  outbreak  and  related  economic  recession,  as  reported  by  the 
Member  State.  The  table  also  provides  the  take-up  of  those  guarantee  schemes,  if  the 
information is available.  

3 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Table  4.2a  (RRF  –  Grants)  presents  data  on  grants  from  the  Recovery  and  Resilience 
Facility included in the Programme’s revenue projections, their  cash disbursements, and the 
expenditure categories (or other costs) financed by those grants. 

Table  4.2b  (RRF  –  Loans)  presents  data  on  cash  disbursements  and  repayments  of  loans 
from the Recovery and Resilience Facility included in the Programme’s projections, and the 
expenditure categories (or other costs) financed by those loans. 

The differences between the projections in the 2021 Programmes and the Commission 2021 
spring forecast may reveal in some cases differents assumptions vis-à-vis the macroeconomic 
outlook and the Member State’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP).  

As  regards  the  absoption  of  grants  from  the  Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility,  the 
Commission  2021  spring  forecast  used  a  number  of  technical  assumptions.  By  default,  the 
forecast assumes a linear absorption of the entire RRF allocation of each Member State, from 
mid-2021  until  end-2026,  with  the  proceeds  being  directed  towards  gross  fixed  capital 
formation  and  capital  transfers.  For  Member  States  where  sufficiently  detailed  information 
was available, the forecast deviated from that working assumption for relevant elements. For 
example, this included cases where there was already available information on the expected 
time profile of RRF-funded expenditures, or cases where certain expenditure components had 
already been established in more detail.  

4 

 
 
 
 
 
1. BELGIUM 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

5 

20232024COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-6.3-6.24.54.13.73.51.71.5Private consumption (% change)-8.7-7.74.66.16.35.61.91.8Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-6.9-9.06.03.32.84.82.91.8Exports of goods and services (% change)-4.6-6.55.94.73.95.64.13.5Imports of goods and services (% change)-4.3-5.66.14.94.36.44.53.7Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-6.0-5.54.74.33.94.22.01.7- Change in inventories0.00.3-0.1-0.60.10.00.00.0- Net exports-0.3-0.8-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.7-0.3-0.2Output gap1-6.3-5.8-3.1-2.8-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.6Employment (% change)0.0-0.1-0.6-0.60.80.61.00.9Unemployment rate (%)5.65.66.76.86.56.86.35.7Labour productivity (% change)-6.3-6.15.14.82.92.90.70.7HICP inflation (%)0.40.41.81.51.51.51.71.7GDP deflator (% change)1.10.71.61.01.51.61.71.7Comp. of employees (per head, % change)-1.8-1.72.74.53.44.22.52.6Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)0.2-1.70.0-1.4-0.4-0.8-0.7-0.7202020212022Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -0.9-0.8n.a.-0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds0.0-0.2n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.1-0.2n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.10.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.9-0.3n.a.-0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-4.60.7n.a.1.6n.a.n.a.n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-4.81.01.31.61.70.1-0.2Change in the structural balance-2.9-0.2-0.21.41.90.50.3Note:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.Source:20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

6 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue50.649.950.349.850.450.851.20.6of which:- Taxes on production and imports13.413.213.413.213.413.513.40.0- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.15.915.515.715.615.615.816.00.1- Social contributions16.115.815.915.815.916.116.20.1- Other (residual)5.25.35.35.25.55.45.60.4RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.2n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure60.057.658.054.754.954.854.8-5.2of which:- Primary expenditure58.055.956.353.353.553.653.6-4.4of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption17.717.317.216.816.716.616.5-1.2Compensation of employees13.412.913.012.612.612.612.5-0.9Intermediate consumption4.34.44.24.24.14.04.0-0.3Social payments28.427.528.626.327.027.127.3-1.1Subsidies5.14.54.34.14.24.14.1-1.0Gross fixed capital formation2.83.03.02.92.83.03.00.2Other (residual)4.03.53.23.22.82.92.8-1.2- Interest expenditure2.01.71.71.41.41.21.2-0.8Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.2n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.General government balance (GGB)-9.4-7.6-7.7-4.9-4.5-4.0-3.75.7Primary balance-7.4-5.9-6.0-3.5-3.1-2.8-2.54.9GGB excl. one-offs-9.5-7.7-7.8-4.9-4.6-4.0-3.75.8Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)11.01.30.9-0.4-0.72.83.1-8.0Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.04.0n.a.3.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)11.70.70.1-0.5-0.62.43.1-8.6Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.23.6n.a.3.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)12.42.92.92.82.82.82.90.5Other indicatorsOutput gap2-6.3-3.1-2.8-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.65.2Cyclically-adjusted balance2-5.5-5.7-6.0-4.4-4.1-3.7-3.42.5One-offs0.10.00.10.00.10.00.0-0.1Structural balance3-5.6-5.8-6.1-4.4-4.2-3.7-3.42.6Structural primary balance3-3.7-4.1-4.4-2.9-2.8-2.5-2.21.8Notes:3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

7 

Average202320242015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio1102.0114.1115.3116.3115.5116.0116.7117.4Change in the ratio-1.816.11.22.10.2-0.30.80.6Contributions2:1. Primary balance-0.87.45.96.03.53.12.82.52. “Snow-ball” effect-1.07.4-4.9-3.9-4.2-4.2-2.6-2.4Of which:Interest expenditure2.42.01.71.71.41.41.21.2Growth effect-1.76.5-4.9-4.4-4.0-3.9-1.9-1.7Inflation effect-1.7-1.1-1.7-1.1-1.6-1.7-1.9-1.93. Stock-flow adjustment0.01.20.30.11.00.90.60.6Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations.20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

8 

Time horizonShort termMedium term4.7HIGH risk1.3MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]4.4MEDIUM risk1.5LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. HIGH riskHIGH risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]110.8108.1Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioHIGH riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.5HIGH riskHIGH riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]HIGH risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

9 

2020202120222023D.62, D362, Expenditure Q2 2020-0.70.20.40D.61: ExpenditureQ2 2021-0.10.050.040D.62, D362, Expenditure n.a.-0.010.0100D.62, D362, Expenditure Q2 2020-0.90.60.20D.62, D362, Expenditure n.a.-0.20.10.10.01D.3, Expendituren.a.-0.40.400D.3, Expendituren.a.-0.30.20.10D.62, D362, Expenditure n.a.-0.10.00.10D.62, D362, Expenditure n.a.-0.3-0.030.30P.2, Expendituren.a.-0.030.000.020D.29 + D.4 (excluding D.41) + D.5 + D.7 + P.52 + P.53 + NP + D.8): Bothn.a.0.0-0.010.010D.5: Revenuen.a.-0.20.10.10.03D.2: Revenuen.a.-0.10.100D.3 Subsidiesn.a.-0.020.0200D.3, Expendituren.a.0-0.05-0.050P.2, Expendituren.a.0-0.0200D.29 + D.4 (excluding D.41) + D.5 + D.7 + P.52 + P.53 + NP + D.8): Bothn.a.-0.01-0.020.030D.3, Expendituren.a.-0.30.060.20P.2, Expendituren.a.-0.10.010.10D.62, D362, Expenditure n.a.-0.10.10-0.030n.a.n.a.0-0.010.010n.a.n.a.0-0.040.040n.a.n.a.00.01-0.010D.3, Expenditure2020-2021-0.20.10.10D.3, ExpenditureEstimation Aju 20210-0.1-0.10.1D.3, Expendituren.a.-0.30.200D.1, Expendituren.a.0.0-0.050.050.0-4.52.01.90.2D.1, ExpenditureQ4 2020/ Q1 202100.030.030.03P.11+P.12+P.131+D.39+D.7+D.9 (other than D.91): BothQ4 2020/ Q1 202100.0200D.2, RevenueQ4 2020/ Q1 202100.10.050.04D.5, RevenueQ4 2020/ Q1 202100.010.010.1D.62, D362, Expenditure Q4 2020/ Q1 202100.030.010.01P.2, ExpenditureQ4 2020/ Q1 2021000.010.02Not allocatedQ4 2020/ Q1 202100.10.10.1Not allocatedQ4 2020/ Q1 2021000.20.2D.3, ExpenditureQ4 2020/ Q1 20210-0.0300.01P.2, ExpenditureQ4 2020/ Q1 20210-0.04-0.01-0.01D.1, ExpenditureQ4 2020/ Q1 20210-0.030.010D.5, RevenueQ4 2020/ Q1 202100.10.040.01D.62, D362, Expenditure Q4 2020/ Q1 20210-0.2-0.1-0.2P.51g, ExpenditureQ4 2020/ Q1 20210-0.020-0.01D.2, Revenuen.a.0-0.040.010.04P.51g, Expenditure20190-0.1-0.010P.51g, ExpenditureMay 20210-0.1-0.10D.4, Revenuen.a.000.010D.2, Revenuen.a.-0.010.0100D.91, Revenuen.a.0.020.02000.0-0.20.30.3-4.51.92.10.51 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. Covid-19: Granting of an advance to hospitalsCovid-19: Interdepartmental provision + other directly allocated primary expenses Covid-19: package of measures (eg increased investment deduction)Covid-19: package of measures (eg. VAT reduction (6 %) on hand gels and mouth masks)Measures ESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)ProvisionCovid-19: package of measures (eg partial and temporary exemption of withholding tax in heavily affected sectors)Covid-19: wage increaseCovid-19: Qualitative improvement of working conditionsPackage of measuresPackage of measuresPackage of measuresPackage of measuresSectoral agreementsNew policy ((including climate plan, good move, housing plan, employment / training plan)SavingsSupport measures to economic sectorsCovid: Covid: Draft Decree of the Flemish Government granting aid to companies that have to be closed or that have been given operating restrictions Package of measuresSubtotal     Non-temporary measures2Efficient governmentCrossborder (better follow-up, and collection and recovery of traffic and fines from Belgians and foreigners)Package of measures (eg transposition of directive 2019/1995 e-commerce)Package of measures (eg. OECD tax)Measures in the sector of pharmaceutical specialitiesStrengthening reintegration policiesTemporary measures2Covid-19: bridging rightsCovid-19: package of measuresCovid-19: Corona parental leaveCovid-19: Temporary unemploymentCovid-19: package of measuresPackage of measuresPackage of measuresVariable effortPackage of measures (eg climat action plan)Package of measures (eg Center for Cybersecurity Belgium)Package of measures (eg reinforcement federal police)Package of measures (eg reconstruction reserve)Package measures (eg integration wage increase)Package of measures (eg own investment projects under RRF)Package of measures (eg. VAT  with regard to RRF)Walloon transition planGet-Up Wallonië (estimates before May 2021)Package of measuresPackage of measuresSubtotal Total2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.    
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

10 

Date of adoptionMaximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)22-06-20202.10.1May 20200.020May 20200.30.12.40.2n.a.0.60.6n.a.8.46.0n.a.n.a.0.04n.a.n.a.2.3n.a.n.a.0.214-07-19970.03020080.01005-02-19900.30.2n.a.1.5n.a.n.a.0.80.711.610.014.110.2Measures In response to COVID-19Guarantee scheme for loans for households and companies - Guarantee II (Entity 1) Crisis guarantee PMV (Flemisch Community)Increased guarantees Gigarant NV (Flemish Community)Subtotal     OthersGuarantees to public companies (Entity 1)Guarantees to the financial sector (Entity 1)Outstanding guarantees to local authorities (Flemish Community)Outstanding guarantees backed by assets (Flemish Community)Outstanding economic guarantees without COVID (Flemish Community)RTBF (French Community)Bois Saint-Jean (French Community)FGBS (French Community)Various guarantees (Walloon Region)Various guarantees (Brussels Capital Region)Subtotal Total 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

11 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projectionsCash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

12 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EURepayments of RRF LOANS to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
2. BULGARIA 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

13 

20232024COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)-4.2-4.23.52.74.73.63.42.7Private consumption (% change)0.20.21.92.03.63.83.63.6Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-5.1-5.13.4-3.46.13.07.20.4Exports of goods and services (% change)-11.3-11.37.05.88.36.84.83.5Imports of goods and services (% change)-6.6-6.66.03.76.15.76.03.2Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand0.40.42.01.53.12.73.82.4- Change in inventories-1.4-1.40.90.00.00.00.00.0- Net exports-3.2-3.20.71.21.50.8-0.50.3Output gap1-3.2-3.1-1.9-2.30.4-0.90.41.4Employment (% change)-2.3-2.30.60.51.31.31.00.5Unemployment rate (%)5.15.14.85.03.94.74.44.4Labour productivity (% change)-1.9-1.92.92.23.32.32.42.2HICP inflation (%)1.21.21.61.82.02.02.02.1GDP deflator (% change)3.33.35.02.23.01.91.91.9Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.95.95.06.45.27.17.06.5Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)6.00.96.82.68.03.53.3n.a.Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020212022202020232024COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -1.10.0n.a.-1.4n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other 0.0-0.4n.a.-0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-1.00.6n.a.0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.5-0.1n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current -0.7-0.1n.a.-1.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-4.11.01.50.52.0-0.6n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-3.50.50.50.92.30.3n.a.Change in the structural balance-3.8-0.20.10.60.3-0.3n.a.Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

14 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPRevenue39.538.436.538.337.237.4n.a.n.a.of which:- Taxes on production and imports15.515.115.014.815.215.1n.a.n.a.- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.05.75.95.86.16.1n.a.n.a.- Social contributions9.39.19.49.09.59.6n.a.n.a.- Other (residual)8.78.56.28.76.46.6n.a.n.a.RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.30.30.80.81.41.71.7Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure42.941.642.140.239.940.5n.a.n.a.of which:- Primary expenditure42.340.941.539.639.339.8n.a.n.a.of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption16.516.416.915.815.815.2n.a.n.a.Compensation of employees10.911.211.710.910.910.4n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption5.55.15.24.94.94.8n.a.n.a.Social payments14.915.115.815.115.215.3n.a.n.a.Subsidies3.42.52.31.81.71.9n.a.n.a.Gross fixed capital formation4.54.24.14.24.45.4n.a.n.a.Other (residual)3.02.72.42.72.22.1n.a.n.a.- Interest expenditure0.60.60.60.60.60.7n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.30.30.80.91.41.71.7General government balance (GGB)-3.4-3.2-5.6-1.9-2.7-3.1n.a.n.a.Primary balance-2.9-2.6-5.1-1.3-2.1-2.4n.a.n.a.GGB excl. one-offs-3.4-3.2-5.6-1.9-2.7-3.1n.a.n.a.Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)17.43.74.71.5-1.95.1n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)8.96.2n.a.6.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)15.66.58.32.5-1.84.5n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)7.97.8n.a.8.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)15.77.57.55.35.35.1n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-3.2-1.9-2.30.4-0.90.41.44.5Cyclically-adjusted balance2-2.5-2.6-4.9-2.0-2.4-3.2n.a.n.a.One-offs0.00.00.00.00.00.0n.a.n.a.Structural balance3-2.5-2.6-4.9-2.0-2.4-3.2n.a.n.a.Structural primary balance3-1.9-2.0-4.3-1.4-1.8-2.5n.a.n.a.Notes:20212022(% of GDP)1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

15 

Average202320242015-2019COMCPCOMCPCPCPGross debt ratio124.625.024.527.424.028.629.3n.a.Change in the ratio-1.44.8-0.52.4-0.51.20.7n.a.Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.52.92.65.11.32.12.4n.a.2. “Snow-ball” effect-1.00.7-1.3-0.7-1.1-0.8-0.7n.a.Of which:Interest expenditure0.80.60.60.60.60.60.7n.a.Growth effect-0.90.8-0.8-0.6-1.1-0.9-0.9n.a.Inflation effect-0.9-0.7-1.2-0.5-0.7-0.5-0.5n.a.3. Stock-flow adjustment1.21.2-1.7-2.1-0.6-0.1-0.9n.a.Notes:Source:20212022(% of GDP)20201 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP), Comission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

16 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-3.8LOW risk-3.3LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]1.3LOW risk1.4LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. LOW riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]20.126.0Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3LOW riskLOW riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

17 

2020202120222023Increase in tax relief for childrenD.5, revenue2020-0.180.18VAT exemption for the supply of vaccines and medical devices related to COVID-19D.2, revenue2020-0.050.000.05Reduction of the tax rate from 20 % to 9 % of VATD.2, revenue2020-0.08-0.080.16State subsidy to charter tour operatorsP.2, expenditure20200.000.03-0.03A lump sum payment of BGN 50 in addition to the pensions of all pensionersD.62, expenditure20200.45-0.11-0.34One-off aid for the use of tourism services for internal tourism, with a unit cost of BGN 210.D.62, expenditure20200.000.01-0.01One-off financial support of BGN 120 per year for food products for pensioners whose pension or the sum of the pensions plus supplements and compensation amounts to BGN 300,01 to BGN 369 inclusive.D.62, expenditure20200.04-0.04Cumulative effect of waiving the income criterion for access to monthly parental allowance up to one year and targeted allowances for pupilsD.62, expenditure20200.03-0.03Monthly targeted assistance in case of declared state of emergency or declared epidemic emergency for families with children under the age of 14D.62, expenditure20200.020.04-0.06Employment protection measure, so-called “60/40”D.3, expenditure20200.84-0.60-0.24Increase in salaries of pedagogical staffD.1, expenditure20180.30-0.01-0.29Increase in salaries of municipal budget staff in the Health and Social Security, Support and Care headings D.1, expenditure20200.020.03-0.05Increase in the maximum amount of pensionD.62, expenditure20190.060.02-0.08Increase of the minimum pensionD.62, expenditure20200.060.38-0.44Increase in staff costs by 30 % for bodies and administrations charged with pandemic containment activities and the consequences of COVID 19D.1, expenditure20200.070.11-0.18Income policy — increase in staff expenditure in the budget area and increase of the YEID.1, expenditure20190.500.09-0.59Other revenue measures0.00-0.030.030.00Other expenditure measures0.000.11-0.09-0.022.24-0.17-2.100.03Revenue from the introduction of tollsP.131, revenue20190.070.02-0.05-0.01Cost of introducing tollsD.1, P.2, P.51, expenditure20190.070.02-0.05-0.01Investment cost ‘Acquisition of basic combat equipment for the construction of battalion battalion groups belonging to a mechanised brigade’P.51, expenditure20180.100.04Increase in the hourly rate of work of PHS personal assistants and increase in the poverty lineD.62, expenditure20200.050.02-0.05-0.01Increase in the part of the insurance income on which the State pays health contributions to persons insured on behalf of the State budgetD.62, expenditure20160.080.01-0.050.00Investment cost ‘Acquisition of a new type of air plane’P.51, expenditure20180.130.100.36Other revenue measures0.040.000.000.00Other expenditure measures0.000.010.010.010.310.210.010.382.550.04-2.090.411 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Total 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

18 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)1. European instrument for temporary support to mitigate unemployment risks in an emergency situation following the COVID-19 outbreak between the European Commission and the Republic of Bulgaria. 18.09.20200.10.12. The contribution agreement between the Republic of Bulgaria and the EIB concerning the Pan-European Guarantee Background.  09.10.202000Subtotal     0.10.11. Guarantee for financing a project for the construction of a cross-border pipeline between the Greek and Bulgarian gas transmission systems12.20190.10.12. Guarantee Agreement KOTONU II03.2009003. Guarantee agreement for the reconstruction of KTM EAD — Plovdiv to reduce industrial pollution11.19950.0204.Guarantee agreement for the modernisation and improvement of the nuclear power plant Kozloduy EAD12.19990.0105. Guarantees under the Act on lending to students and doctoral candidates08.20090.10.016. Municipal guarantee for Municipal Passenger Transport EOOD, Gabrovo2020007. Municipal guarantee for Diagnostic Advisory Centre II, Dobrich8.201900Subtotal 0.10.1Total0.20.1In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

19 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections0.020.30.81.41.72.61.8Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU00.90.61.31.71.92.22020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.20.010.010Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.700.10.10.1TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE00.10.10.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51g00.60.91.0Capital transfers D.90.020.30.20.40.6TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE0.020.30.81.31.62020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsRevenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a. 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

20 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EURepayments of RRF LOANS to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
3. CZECHIA 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

21 

20232024COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)-5.6-5.63.43.14.43.71.92.1Private consumption (% change)-5.2-5.21.50.14.35.71.82.2Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-8.1-8.13.63.87.94.54.61.2Exports of goods and services (% change)-5.9-5.98.55.06.25.73.83.7Imports of goods and services (% change)-6.1-6.18.44.96.66.64.73.4Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-3.9-3.92.21.84.33.92.31.7- Change in inventories-1.5-1.50.50.90.00.00.00.0- Net exports-0.3-0.30.70.40.1-0.2-0.30.4Output gap1-4.4-4.4-2.9-2.8-0.7-0.70.01.1Employment (% change)-1.5-1.5-1.5-1.10.30.10.30.1Unemployment rate (%)2.62.63.83.63.53.73.53.5Labour productivity (% change)-4.2-4.24.94.24.13.61.61.9HICP inflation (%)3.33.32.42.42.22.32.11.9GDP deflator (% change)4.24.22.01.82.11.72.01.9Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.92.90.91.02.81.52.63.0Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)0.83.00.30.9-0.20.40.20.6Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020212022202020232024COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   0.1-2.5n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other 0.0-0.2n.a.-0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.0-0.3n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.30.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current -0.1-2.1n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-3.2-1.8-3.82.34.41.01.5Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-3.3-1.6-3.62.54.40.90.5Change in the structural balance-3.6-3.0-1.52.40.20.2-0.2Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

22 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPRevenue41.339.439.839.339.839.738.4-2.9of which:- Taxes on production and imports11.511.411.611.511.611.511.2-0.3- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.16.16.26.16.16.16.1-2.0- Social contributions16.116.116.215.515.615.415.2-0.9- Other (residual)5.65.85.86.26.56.75.90.3RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.50.30.70.70.70.70.7Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure47.547.948.644.745.745.143.7-3.8of which:- Primary expenditure46.747.247.843.944.944.342.9-3.8of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption17.317.217.516.516.916.616.3-1.0Compensation of employees11.211.211.210.710.910.610.4-0.8Intermediate consumption6.16.06.35.76.05.95.8-0.3Social payments18.018.118.317.417.817.517.2-0.8Subsidies3.13.02.92.12.12.02.0-1.1Gross fixed capital formation4.95.25.35.35.55.74.90.0Other (residual)3.43.63.82.72.72.52.5-0.9- Interest expenditure0.80.80.80.70.80.80.80.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.40.30.70.70.60.60.0General government balance (GGB)-6.2-8.5-8.8-5.4-5.9-5.4-5.21.0Primary balance-5.4-7.8-8.0-4.6-5.1-4.6-4.41.0GGB excl. one-offs-6.2-8.6-7.0-5.4-5.9-5.4-5.20.9Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)14.38.012.2-2.3-5.31.82.2-14.3Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)6.110.2n.a.3.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)14.07.311.50.0-0.81.42.6-9.4Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)6.710.1n.a.4.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)16.54.34.34.34.34.44.2-2.2Other indicatorsOutput gap2-4.4-2.9-2.8-0.7-0.70.01.15.5Cyclically-adjusted balance2-4.4-7.4-7.7-5.1-5.6-5.4-5.6-1.2One-offs0.00.1-1.80.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-4.4-7.5-5.9-5.1-5.6-5.4-5.6-1.2Structural primary balance3-3.7-6.7-5.1-4.3-4.8-4.6-4.8-1.2Notes:20212022(% of GDP)1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

23 

Average202320242015-2019COMCPCOMCPCPCPGross debt ratio134.638.144.344.847.148.251.554.6Change in the ratio-2.37.86.26.72.83.53.33.0Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.45.47.88.04.65.14.64.42. “Snow-ball” effect-1.11.2-1.2-1.0-2.0-1.5-1.1-1.1Of which:Interest expenditure0.80.80.80.80.70.80.80.8Growth effect-1.31.7-1.2-1.1-1.8-1.6-0.9-1.0Inflation effect-0.7-1.3-0.7-0.7-0.9-0.7-0.9-1.03. Stock-flow adjustment0.21.2-0.3-0.30.2-0.1-0.2-0.2Notes:Source:20212022(% of GDP)20201 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP), Comission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

24 

Time horizonShort termMedium term1.0MEDIUM risk1.8MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]4.1MEDIUM risk3.6MEDIUM risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. LOW riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]58.164.6Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.4MEDIUM riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

25 

2020202120222023Change in the method of creation and tax deductibility of technical provisions in the insurance sectorD.51b20190.090-0.10Increase in the entry price limit for the depreciation of tangible assetsD.51b2020-0.040.010.030Introduction of the temporary extraordinary depreciationD.51b2020-0.2-0.10.30.15Remission of minimum social and health insurance advances for self-employed (March-August) D.612020-0.30.2400Remission of social security contribution payments paid by certain employersD.612020-0.20.2200Extra contribution 370 CZK per day for people in quarantine D.6120210-0.040.030Lower dividend from Prague AirportD.42020-0.030.0300Interest on the tax administrator 's misconduct N/A2020-0.030.0300Increase funds for the payment of extraordinary remuneration to workers in healthcare system and social services, incl. Increase in wages for security forces etc.D.12020, 2021-0.31-0.020.30Adjustment parameters of the care allowance for employees and self-employed during pandemic D.622020, 2021-0.210.150.10One-off lump sum to pensionersD.622020-0.30.300Debt relief of hospitalsD.992020-0.10.100Dissolution of reserves of health insurance companies - increase in health care expenditures beyond the reimbursement decree D.6322020-0.11000Purchase of protective equipment, vaccine, tests and other suppliesP.22020-0.30.10.20Other healthcare expenditure due to COVID-19D.3, D.72020, 2021-0.040.020.020Contribution to self-testing against COVID for firms and self-employedD.63220210-0.080.080Short-term work scheme - compensation of wage costs (Antivirus programme)D.39, D.992020, 2021-0.50.20.20Programmes to support culture due to COVID-19D.32020-0.02-0.020.040Programmes to support sport due to COVID-19D.32020-0.01-0.060.070Programmes to support agriculture due to COVID-19D.32020-0.10.040.050Programmes to support tourism due to COVID-19D.3, D.72020-0.05-0.10.10Other programmes to support companies due to COVID-19D.32020-0.1-0.020.10"COVID 2021" programmeD.320210-0.10.10"COVID-uncovered costs" programmeD.320210-0.10.10"COVID-rent" programmeD.32020-0.10.020.10Other measures due to COVID-19P.2, D.32020-0.010.0100Compensatory bonus for self-employed, small Ltd. and contractorsD.992020, 2021-0.5-0.10.50Increase in funds to the State Fund for Transport InfrastructureP.512020-0.10.10.00-3.40.92.20.1Abolition of the Real Property Acquisition Tax and related changesD.214, D.51b2020-0.2000Effective reduction in the personal income tax rateD.51a20200-1.7-0.20Abolition of gambling winnings exemption (greater than 100 000 CZK)D.51a20190.01000Flat tax regimeD.51a20200-0.0100Lowering the sickness insurance by 0.2 p.p.D.51a2019-0.01000Increase in tax credit for second, third and other childD.51a20210-0.0500Other measures D.51a20200.040.020.040Tax exemption for government bond yieldsD.51b20200-0.03-0.04-0.03Exemption of state and regional dividends from taxD.51b2019-0.03000Other measures D.51b20200.00-0.0300Decrease in SSC rate by 0.2 p.p. for employers as a compensation for abolition of waiting periodD.612019-0.03000Other measures D.6120200.20.10.10Decrease in VAT rate on the selected services (heat and cold supplies, culture, sport, accomodation etc.)D.2112019, 2020-0.1-0.1-0.010.01Decrease in excise duty on diesel oilD.21420200-0.100Decrease in road tax rate D.29b2020-0.02000Increase in excise duty on tobacco productsD.2142019, 20200.20.10.040.04Introduction of the digital tax D.214202000.020.030Increase in excise duty on alcoholD.21420190.02000Introduction (incl. extending) of a register of excluded persons in gambling + change in gambling tax rateD.214f20200.02-0.03-0.020Other revenue measures2019, 2020-0.030.100Increase in wages and salaries in the education system, security forces, state administrationD.12020-0.3-0.2-0.30Increase in average old-age pensions beyond statutory requirements (incl. increase in pension for pensioners 85+)D.62112019-0.1000Increase and changes in parental allowance for all households with a child up to 4 years of age who are actively receiving this benefitD.6232019-0.25000Increase in child allowances, Act on infant school and other cash social benefits measuresD.6232020-0.02-0.04-0.10Other expenditure measures20200-0.010.040Increase in the carer’s allowance for persons with degrees 3 and 4 of dependenceD.6232019, 2021-0.030-0.050Increase in payments for state-insured personsD.6232020-0.4-0.500Loss carrybackD.9920200-0.30.30-1.1-2.8-0.10-4.6-1.92.10.21 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    TotalTemporary measures2Non-temporary measures 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

26 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)20202021"COVID II" Programme20200.40.20"COVID III" Programme20202.70.30.5"COVID Plus" Programme20202.50.20.2"COVID Prague" Programme20200.030.020"COVID Sport" Programme20210.100.1"COVID Guarantee for Travel Services" Programme20210.0100.01Subtotal     5.60.70.8"National Guarantee" Programme20150.10.1"Expansion-Guarantee" Programme20140.20.10.1Prague Public Transit  Co.20120.20.1Guarantees for housing needs20140.02Other guarantees20140.03Subtotal 0.40.20.1Total6.01.01.0Estimated  take-up (% of GDP)In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

27 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections0.00.30.70.70.70.30.1Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU0.40.70.60.40.40.32020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0.10.10.10.10.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0.30.60.50.50.10.1Capital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE0.00.30.60.50.50.10.12020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactions0.030.010.010.01Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

28 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EURepayments of RRF LOANS to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
4. DENMARK 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

29 

202320242025COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)-2.7-2.72.92.13.53.82.31.31.3Private consumption (% change)-1.9-1.93.12.43.94.42.42.32.2Gross fixed capital formation (% change)2.12.13.41.34.24.04.22.42.1Exports of goods and services (% change)-7.7-7.75.44.26.16.72.62.21.7Imports of goods and services (% change)-4.8-4.85.64.85.85.83.23.42.8Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-0.5-0.52.62.22.82.92.41.81.8- Change in inventories-0.2-0.20.10.00.10.00.00.00.0- Net exports-2.1-2.10.30.00.60.8-0.1-0.5-0.5Output gap1-4.1-3.9-3.3-3.6-2.1-1.7-0.7-0.6-0.3Employment (% change)-0.7-0.70.60.20.91.20.50.10.3Unemployment rate (%)5.65.85.55.45.25.14.94.84.8Labour productivity (% change)-2.0-2.32.31.62.62.51.31.21.1HICP inflation (%)0.30.31.31.11.31.52.01.92.1GDP deflator (% change)2.32.31.40.61.60.81.31.71.7Comp. of employees (per head, % change)1.61.61.62.42.02.52.62.92.9Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)7.87.88.07.08.47.36.86.35.5202020212022Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:(% of GDP)20202021202220232024COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   1.3-2.5n.a.1.6n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds0.0-0.2n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.20.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure2.3-3.2n.a.0.6n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.80.8n.a.1.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-2.41.12.01.70.80.40.0Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-2.11.32.21.70.90.3-0.2Change in the structural balance-2.9-0.40.80.3-0.4-0.50.0Note:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal Source:Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

30 

2020202320242025Change: 2020-2025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPCPRevenue52.851.249.849.049.048.748.549.0-3.8of which:- Taxes on production and imports15.815.315.814.815.515.515.315.3-0.5- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.30.729.328.528.128.327.827.828.4-2.3- Social contributions0.80.80.00.80.00.00.00.0-0.8- Other (residual)5.45.75.55.35.25.45.45.3-0.1RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.20.20.20.10.10.0n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.10.00.00.0n.a.Expenditure54.053.353.050.449.949.449.149.0-5.0of which:- Primary expenditure53.552.752.349.949.448.748.548.4-5.1of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption24.424.424.623.523.823.623.723.8-0.6Compensation of employees15.414.915.214.414.914.814.814.9-0.5Intermediate consumption9.09.5n.a.9.18.98.98.98.9-0.1Social payments18.017.517.816.917.217.017.117.2-0.8Subsidies3.02.82.91.91.61.51.41.4-1.6Gross fixed capital formation3.63.73.63.73.63.73.53.4-0.2Other (residual)4.54.33.24.03.02.52.52.4-2.1- Interest expenditure0.50.60.70.50.50.70.60.60.1Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.20.10.20.00.00.00.0n.a.General government balance (GGB)-1.1-2.1-3.3-1.4-0.9-0.7-0.60.01.1Primary balance-0.6-1.5-2.6-0.9-0.40.00.00.61.2GGB excl. one-offs-1.9-1.8-0.9-0.9-0.2-0.10.00.01.9Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)9.30.9-1.20.11.83.03.6n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)1.68.4n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)7.10.7-3.91.2-0.92.94.1n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)6.11.6n.a.1.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. mominal 10-year average potential growth (%)14.33.43.43.63.63.63.6n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-4.1-3.3-3.6-2.1-1.7-0.7-0.6-0.33.6Cyclically-adjusted balance21.2-0.1-1.2-0.20.1-0.3-0.30.2-1.0One-offs0.7-0.2-2.4-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.60.0-0.7Structural balance30.50.11.20.40.80.30.30.2-0.2Structural primary balance31.00.71.90.91.31.00.90.8-0.120212022(% of GDP)Notes:1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

31 

Average2023202420252015-2019COMCPCOMCPCPCPCPGross debt ratio136.042.240.240.738.841.341.641.339.7Change in the ratio-2.28.9-2.0-1.5-1.40.60.3-0.3-1.6Contributions2:1. Primary balance-2.00.61.52.60.90.40.00.0-0.62. “Snow-ball” effect-0.20.7-1.1-0.4-1.5-1.3-0.8-0.6-0.6Of which:Interest expenditure1.00.50.60.70.50.50.70.60.6Growth effect-1.00.9-1.2-0.9-1.3-1.5-0.9-0.5-0.5Inflation effect-0.2-0.8-0.6-0.2-0.6-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.73. Stock-flow adjustment0.07.6-2.4-3.7-0.81.51.10.3-0.4Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP), Comission calculations.20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

32 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-3.8LOW risk-4.3LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]1.7LOW risk1.0LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]24.627.1Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.4LOW riskLOW riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

33 

2020202120222023Wage compensationSubsidies (D.3)20200.50.1-0.60Compensation for companies' fixed costsSubsidies (D.3)20200.30.0-0.30Compensation for self-employed etc.Subsidies (D.3)20200.3-0.300Expected losses on standardized guarantees concerning businesses' loansCapital transfers (D.9)20200.4-0.400Expected losses on guarantee coverage for businesses' trade and exportsCapital transfers (D.9)20200.2-0.200Compensation to public transport companiesCapital transfers (D.9)20200.1-0.100Extension of reimbursement for sickness benefits to employersSocial contributions and benefits (D.6)20200.1-0.100Recapitalization of Scandinavian AirlinesCapital transfers (D.9)20200.2-0.200One-off payout of savings in employers' education contribution fundSubsidies (D.3)20200.2-0.200Removal af construction ceilings in municipalities and regions in 2020Gross fixed capital formation (P.51g)20200.1-0.100Expenditure related to the agreement on compensation to mink farmers (placed technically in 2021)Various (mainly capital transfers D.9)2020/20210.10.6-0.70COVID-19-related operating expenditure for public authoritiesCompensation of employess and intermediate consumption (D.1 + P.2)20200.5-0.2-0.30New right to an early pensionSocial contributions and benefits (D.6)2020000.101 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Total 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

34 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Loan guarantees to small, medium and large companies20202.0The Travel Guarantee Fund20200.1Scandinavian Airlines20200.0Match funding initiatives in Vaekstfonden20200.2Guarantee for credit insurance for export companies' losses20201.3Subtotal     Public guarantees in total excluding COVID-19-related (cf. above)-22.3Subtotal TotalIn response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

35 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections00.160.160.070.050.030Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU00.160.160.070.050.0302020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0.050.030.020.020.0100Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0.040.010.010000Capital transfers D.90.010.010.010.01000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE0.040.010.0100002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0.050.110.040.030.0100Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Cash disbursements are technically assumed to follow the profile for RFF grants.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

36 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EURepayments of RRF LOANS to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5. GERMANY 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

37 

202320242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-4.9-4.93.43.04.12.61.21.21.2Private consumption (% change)-6.1-6.10.13.67.32.91.21.21.2Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-3.1-3.13.23.63.93.51.71.71.7Exports of goods and services (% change)-9.4-9.410.46.44.85.73.13.13.1Imports of goods and services (% change)-8.5-8.57.97.27.26.03.63.63.6Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-3.2-3.21.52.94.82.41.21.21.2- Change in inventories-0.8-0.70.40.00.00.00.00.00.0- Net exports-0.9-1.11.50.1-0.60.20.00.00.0Output gap1-4.8-4.4-2.7-2.30.0-0.50.00.30.7Employment (% change)-1.1-1.1-0.20.00.90.6-0.2-0.2-0.2Unemployment rate (%)3.84.04.13.93.43.53.73.83.7Labour productivity (% change)-3.9-3.93.63.03.12.01.41.41.4HICP inflation (%)0.4n.a.2.4n.a.1.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.GDP deflator (% change)1.61.61.61.31.51.61.61.61.6Comp. of employees (per head, % change)0.50.52.83.22.92.63.03.03.0Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)6.96.97.46.26.66.46.36.36.2202020212022Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -2.4-1.5n.a.0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other 0.0-0.2n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.10.0n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.1-0.5n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current -2.2-0.7n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-3.8-3.4-4.53.44.31.20.6Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-3.8-3.2-4.33.44.11.00.6Change in the structural balance-2.8-4.4-5.93.75.1n.a.n.a.Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

38 

2020202320242025Change: 2020-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPSPRevenue46.946.045 ¾45.746 ¼4747 ½47 ¾1of which:- Taxes on production and imports10.410.510 ½10.811111111½- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.12.812.21212.21212 ½12 ¾13¼- Social contributions18.217.91817.718 ¼18 ½1919¾- Other (residual)5.55.35 ¼5.05555- ½RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.30.30.20.10.10.10.10.1Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure51.153.554 ¾48.349 ½48 ½48 ¼47 ¾-3 ½of which:- Primary expenditure50.452.954 ¼47.7494847 ¾47 ¼-3 ¼of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption14.614.815 ¼14.114 ½14 ¼1413 ¾-¾Compensation of employees8.58.38 ¼8.18 ¼8 ¼8 ¼8 ¼- ¼Intermediate consumption6.16.56 ¾6.06 ¼65 ¾5 ½- ½Social payments27.226.72725.826 ¼26 ½26 ½26 ½-¾Subsidies2.13.43 ¾1.01 ¼¾¾¾-1 ¼Gross fixed capital formation2.72.82 ¾2.82 ¾2 ¾2 ¾2 ¾0Other (residual)3.95.25 ¼4.04 ¼43 ½3 ½- ¼- Interest expenditure0.70.6½0.5½½½½- ¼Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.30.30.20.20.10.10.00.0General government balance (GGB)-4.2-7.5-9-2.5-3-1 ½- ½04 ¼Primary balance-3.5-7.0-8 ¼-2.0-2 ½-10½4GGB excl. one-offs-4.2-7.5-9-2.5-3-1 ½- ½04 ¼Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)11.19.611.9-3.9-5.30.51.5n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)8.25.5n.a.2.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)11.38.910.9-4.4-5.50.51.6n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)8.14.4n.a.2.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. mominal 10-year average potential growth (%)12.92.92.92.82.82.82.8n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-4.8-2.7-2.30.0-0.50.00.30.75.1Cyclically-adjusted balance2-1.8-6.2-7.9-2.5-2.8-1.5-0.8-0.41.6One-offs0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-1.8-6.2-7.9-2.5-2.8-1.5-0.8-0.41.6Structural primary balance3-1.1-5.6-7.2-2.0-2.2-1.0-0.30.11.4Source:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.Notes:1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

39 

Average2023202420252015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPSPGross debt ratio165.669.873.174 ½72.27473 ¼7269 ¼Change in the ratio-3.210.13.34 ¾-0.9-½-¾-1 ¼-2 ¾Contributions2:1. Primary balance-2.43.57.08 ¼2.02 ½10-½2. “Snow-ball” effect-1.12.7-2.7-2.3-3.4-2.5-1.5-1.5-1.4Of which:Interest expenditure1.10.70.6½0.5½½½½Growth effect-1.13.0-2.3-2.0-2.8-1.9-0.8-0.8-0.8Inflation effect-1.1-1.0-1.1-0.9-1.1-1.1-1.1-1.1-1.13. Stock-flow adjustment0.43.8-0.9-1.30.5-0.6-0.30.1-0.7Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations.20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

40 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-0.8LOW risk-1.8LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]1.5LOW risk1.2LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. MEDIUM riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]61.056.0Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3LOW riskLOW riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

41 

20202021202220231 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. n.a.2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Totaln.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

42 

20202021202220231 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. n.a.2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Totaln.a. 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

43 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections0.030.30.10.10.10.10.04Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU0.030.30.10.10.10.10.042020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0.020.10.10.020.010.010.004Gross fixed capital formation P.51g00.10.0040.0030.00.00050.0005Capital transfers D.90.0030.10.10.10.10.040.03TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE0.0030.20.10.10.10.040.032020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue (in €k)0000000Other costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsRevenue from RRF grants (% of GDP) Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

44 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EURepayments of RRF LOANS to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
6. ESTONIA 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

45 

202320242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-2.9-2.92.82.55.04.83.23.12.9Private consumption (% change)-2.3-2.54.31.35.84.02.32.22.0Gross fixed capital formation (% change)18.418.4-11.4-15.47.98.85.15.23.0Exports of goods and services (% change)-5.5-5.55.56.05.76.33.83.23.0Imports of goods and services (% change)0.70.70.0-0.65.96.23.63.02.2Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand4.44.4-1.0-3.65.03.52.72.72.0- Change in inventories-2.1-2.10.01.40.00.80.10.00.1- Net exports-4.5-4.53.94.70.00.40.30.30.7Output gap1-4.3-4.2-4.5-4.1-2.8-1.9-1.1-0.20.5Employment (% change)-2.7-2.2-0.8-0.91.70.80.60.40.2Unemployment rate (%)6.86.87.98.06.37.36.66.26.0Labour productivity (% change)-0.2-0.83.73.43.33.92.52.62.6HICP inflation (%)-0.6-0.61.62.02.22.12.01.91.9GDP deflator (% change)-0.4-0.41.82.32.32.12.12.01.9Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.52.13.55.93.55.15.14.94.7Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)0.30.43.25.22.95.35.05.05.2202020212022Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -1.1-1.2n.a.1.6n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-0.1-0.1n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.5-0.8n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.50.1n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-0.1-0.4n.a.1.7n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-2.9-0.8-3.33.03.00.51.7Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-2.6-0.1-2.22.82.50.60.7Change in the structural balance-1.6-1.4-2.02.11.80.40.6Note:Source:20212022(% of GDP)1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

46 

2020202320242025Change: 2020-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPSPRevenue40.241.141.739.540.240.139.438.9-1.3of which:- Taxes on production and imports13.413.613.513.613.313.413.112.7-0.7- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.78.48.37.67.67.47.47.5-0.2- Social contributions13.113.313.312.412.412.412.412.4-0.7- Other (residual)5.95.86.65.96.96.96.56.30.4RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.40.30.50.40.60.70.7n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure45.146.747.642.843.943.341.640.5-4.6of which:- Primary expenditure45.146.647.642.743.843.241.540.4-4.7of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption19.119.419.718.419.118.618.318.0-1.1Compensation of employees12.712.712.612.212.312.112.111.9-0.8Intermediate consumption6.56.7n.a.6.26.86.56.36.0-0.5Social payments15.615.915.914.314.714.714.714.7-0.9Subsidies1.61.61.60.40.40.30.30.3-1.3Gross fixed capital formation5.76.36.66.26.46.86.15.5-0.2Other (residual)3.13.53.73.43.42.82.11.9-1.2- Interest expenditure0.00.00.00.10.10.10.10.10.1Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.40.00.50.40.70.70.7n.a.General government balance (GGB)-4.9-5.6-6.0-3.3-3.8-3.2-2.2-1.73.2Primary balance-4.9-5.5-5.9-3.2-3.7-3.1-2.1-1.63.3GGB excl. one-offs-4.9-6.4-6.0-3.4-3.8-3.2-2.2-1.73.2Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)10.06.812.4-1.9-1.53.52.8n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary measures) growth rate (%)5.47.8n.a.1.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)8.35.310.1-3.1-0.82.45.7n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary measures) growth rate (%)3.16.4n.a.0.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. mominal 10-year average potential growth (%)12.85.25.25.85.85.75.6n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-4.3-4.5-4.1-2.8-1.9-1.1-0.20.54.7Cyclically-adjusted balance2-2.8-3.4-4.0-1.9-2.9-2.7-2.1-1.90.9One-offs0.00.80.00.20.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-2.8-4.2-4.0-2.1-2.9-2.7-2.1-1.90.9Structural primary balance3-2.8-4.2-4.0-2.0-2.8-2.6-2.0-1.81.0Source:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.Notes:1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

47 

Average202320242015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio19.118.221.321.424.024.627.428.0Change in the ratio-0.49.83.03.22.73.22.80.6Contributions2:1. Primary balance0.34.95.55.93.23.73.12.12. “Snow-ball” effect-0.60.3-0.8-0.7-1.4-1.3-1.1-1.2Of which:Interest expenditure0.00.00.00.00.10.10.10.1Growth effect-0.30.3-0.5-0.4-1.0-1.0-0.7-0.8Inflation effect-0.20.0-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.5-0.53. Stock-flow adjustment-0.14.6-1.7-2.01.00.80.8-0.3Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations.20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

48 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-3.9LOW risk-2.6LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]-0.5LOW risk0.8LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]23.530.1Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.4LOW riskLOW riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

49 

2020202120222023Dividends with income taxD.5 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc2021-0.040.03Second pillar pension changesD.5 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc20210.8-0.800.8-0.80Changes in timing of investmentsP.51 - Gross fixed capital formation20210-0.030.02Educational costs savingsD.1 - Compensation of employees20220.030Educational costs savingsP.2 - Intermediate consumption20220.020Electronic recording of employees in constructionP.51 - Gross fixed capital formation202200Electronic recording of employees in constructionD.1 - Compensation of employees202200Electronic recording of employees in constructionP.2 - Intermediate consumption202200Exceptional pension increaseD.62+D.63+D.621+D.624+D.631 - Social payments, of which, where applicable, unemployment benefits including cash benefits and in...20230-0.2Keeping R&D costs at the level of 1% from GDPD.1 - Compensation of employees2022-0.010.01Keeping R&D costs at the level of 1% from GDPP.2 - Intermediate consumption2022-0.020.03Operating costs savingsP.2 - Intermediate consumption20220.10Operating costs savingsD.1 - Compensation of employees20220.040Othe costsP.51 - Gross fixed capital formation2022-0.010.02Othe costsD.1 - Compensation of employees20210.100.01Othe costsP.2 - Intermediate consumption2022000.01Reform of collecting packaging products of plasticD.29+D.4+D.5+D.7+P.52+P.53+K.2+D.8 - Other (other than D.41)202500Salary fund growth for target groupsD.1 - Compensation of employees2022-0.040.0The cost of the Enterprise Estonia measuresD.1 - Compensation of employees2021-0.02-0.01-0.01The cost of the Enterprise Estonia measuresP.2 - Intermediate consumption2021-0.02-0.01-0.01Changes in the Gambling Tax ActD.29+D.4+D.5+D.7+P.52+P.53+K.2+D.8 - Other (other than D.41)202200Abolition of the mortgage interest tax exemptionD.5 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc202300.02Dividends with income taxD.5 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc20210.04-0.04Dividends with income taxD.4 - Property income20220.05-0.04Electronic recording of employees in constructionD.5 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc20230.00.0Electronic recording of employees in constructionD.61 - Social contributions20230.00.01Other incomeP.11+P.12+P.131+D.39+D.7+D.9 (other than D.91) - Other20220.010.01Sale of land and real estateD.4 - Property income20220.020.03Tax revenue from Enterprise Estonia measuresD.5 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc2021000Tax revenue from Enterprise Estonia measuresD.61 - Social contributions202100.010Tax revenue from Enterprise Estonia measuresD.2 - Taxes on production and imports20210.040.00.01Income tax excemption of average pensionD.5 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc20230-0.30Income tax excemption of average pensionD.2 - Taxes on production and imports202300.05Second pillar pension changesD.5 - Current taxes on income, wealth, etc20220.18-0.1700.10.4-0.500.9-0.4-0.51 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Total 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

50 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Guarantees to foundation KredEx and limited company KredEx Credit Insurance Ltd, Rural Development Foundation (MES)06-20201.50.6Subtotal     callable capital of ESM08-20124.20guarantee in respect of bonds obligations of the EFSF09-20112.00callable capital of EIB, NIB, CEB, EBRD, IBRD05.2004; 01.2005; 03.1998; 02.1992; 04.1992 accordingly1.60guarantee to foundation KredEx and limited company KredEx Credit Insurance Ltd05.2003 and 11.2009 accordingly1.40student loans08-20030.20loan guarantees (2 state owned foundations)06.2012 and 12.20160.10Subtotal 9.50In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

51 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections0.30.40.60.70.7Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU0.50.50.50.62020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0.030.10.10.10.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0.030.20.40.40.4Capital transfers D.90.040.10.20.20.2TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE0.10.30.60.60.62020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue00000Other costs with impact on revenue00000Financial transactions0.30.1000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

52 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EURepayments of RRF LOANS to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
7. IRELAND 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

53 

202320242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)3.43.44.64.55.05.03.53.23.1Private consumption (% change)-9.0-9.05.53.58.610.43.22.82.9Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-32.3-32.36.5-30.56.68.98.47.45.6Exports of goods and services (% change)6.26.26.86.04.95.95.04.74.5Imports of goods and services (% change)-11.3-11.37.7-5.55.88.36.45.95.3Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-16.6-16.63.7-7.94.54.72.82.62.3- Change in inventories1.01.0-0.2-0.50.00.00.00.00.0- Net exports20.720.71.113.00.50.30.60.60.8Output gap1-0.8-2.0-0.5-0.90.10.70.60.40.5Employment (% change)-1.5-15.1-3.54.05.011.03.22.30.0Unemployment rate (%)5.718.710.716.38.18.26.66.00.1Labour productivity (% change)5.021.88.40.50.0-5.40.20.90.0HICP inflation (%)-0.5-0.50.91.11.31.91.51.61.9GDP deflator (% change)-0.5-0.51.50.41.21.81.51.61.6Comp. of employees (per head, % change)1.617.42.00.11.8-6.51.92.90.0Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-0.34.62.015.13.913.111.810.79.8202020212022Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   0.00.8n.a.-0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds0.0-0.1n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.2-0.1n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.10.2n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure0.20.9n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-3.71.00.82.53.22.30.9Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-3.81.00.72.52.92.20.8Change in the structural balance-5.1-0.12.21.8-0.71.00.6Note:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal Source:20212022(% of GDP)Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

54 

2020202320242025Change: 2020-2025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPSPRevenue23.423.023.522.922.923.022.922.8-0.6of which:- Taxes on production and imports6.66.66.66.76.66.66.76.60.0- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.29.710.19.510.010.010.210.20.0- Social contributions4.34.24.44.14.24.13.93.8-0.5- Other (residual)2.32.52.42.62.12.32.12.2-0.1RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.1n.a.0.00.10.10.10.0n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure28.428.028.225.725.724.323.623.0-5.4of which:- Primary expenditure27.427.127.324.924.823.422.822.3-5.1of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption10.810.86.710.66.56.36.26.1-4.7Compensation of employees6.86.74.16.63.93.83.73.6-3.2Intermediate consumption4.04.1n.a.3.98.87.77.37.03.0Social payments10.610.310.48.88.87.77.37.0-3.6Subsidies1.51.61.60.80.80.70.50.5-1.0Gross fixed capital formation2.72.92.93.03.03.13.23.10.4Other (residual)1.81.61.71.81.81.71.81.90.1- Interest expenditure1.00.90.90.90.90.90.80.7-0.3Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.10.00.00.10.10.00.0n.a.General government balance (GGB)-5.0-5.0-4.7-2.9-2.8-1.2-0.7-0.24.8Primary balance-4.0-4.1-3.8-2.0-1.9-0.30.10.64.6GGB excl. one-offs-5.0-5.0-2.3-2.9-2.2-1.2-0.7-0.24.8Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)21.32.84.4-4.2-4.6-2.62.6n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)5.23.0n.a.7.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)22.02.35.8-5.6-0.4-1.61.0n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)3.72.5n.a.7.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. mominal 10-year average potential growth (%)15.07.17.16.86.86.86.3n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-0.8-0.5-0.90.10.70.60.40.52.4Cyclically-adjusted balance2-4.6-4.7-4.2-2.9-3.2-1.5-0.9-0.43.6One-offs0.00.0-2.40.0-0.60.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-4.6-4.7-1.8-2.9-2.6-1.5-0.9-0.43.6Structural primary balance3-3.6-3.8-0.9-2.0-1.7-0.6-0.10.33.320212022(% of GDP)Notes:1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

55 

Average2023202420252015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPSPGross debt ratio167.659.561.462.259.760.259.057.755.4Change in the ratio-9.42.21.92.7-1.7-2.0-1.2-1.3-2.3Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.54.04.13.82.01.90.3-0.1-0.62. “Snow-ball” effect-7.1-0.6-2.6-1.9-2.7-3.0-1.9-1.9-1.8Of which:Interest expenditure2.01.00.90.90.90.90.90.80.7Growth effect-7.1-1.9-2.6-2.6-2.9-2.9-2.0-1.8-1.7Inflation effect-1.90.3-0.8-0.3-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.9-0.93. Stock-flow adjustment-0.4-1.20.30.8-0.9-0.80.50.70.1Notes:Source:20212022(% of GDP)20201 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

56 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-1.7LOW risk-5.5LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]3.6MEDIUM risk-3.8LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]45.227.9Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.4LOW riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

57 

2020202120222023Compensation of employees D.10.2-0.1Intermediate consumptionP.20.7-0.3-0.4Social paymentsD.61.4-0.5-0.8SubsidiesD.31.00.0-1.0Gross fixed capital formationP.510.2-0.20.0TransfersD.7 & D.90.2-0.1-0.1Otherunallocated0.50.1-0.6Current taxes on income and wealth (Covid Restriction Support Scheme)D.50.0Taxes on production and imports (VAT- temporary rate reduction from 13.5% to 9% ) D.2-0.10.103.5-0.4-2.2-0.63.5-0.4-2.2-0.61 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Total 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

58 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Guarantee for the 'Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE)' Scheme juil-200.1Guarantee for the 'EIB’s Pan-European Guarantee Fund'juil-200.04Subtotal     0.2Subtotal TotalIn response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

59 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.10.1Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU0.020.10.10.042020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10.010.02Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632000Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0.020.020.000.000.00Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0.010.10.10.040.03Capital transfers D.900000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE0.010.10.10.040.032020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsRevenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

60 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EURepayments of RRF LOANS to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
8. GREECE 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

61 

20232024COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-8.2-8.34.13.66.06.24.14.4Private consumption (% change)-5.2-5.22.52.63.32.92.12.8Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-0.6-0.612.97.015.130.312.310.8Exports of goods and services (% change)-21.7-21.79.110.414.813.87.56.2Imports of goods and services (% change)-6.8-6.86.36.96.88.54.03.4Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-3.1-3.13.73.03.74.93.03.4- Change in inventories0.70.50.00.00.00.00.00.0- Net exports-5.8-5.60.40.72.31.31.11.0Output gap1-10.8-5.9-6.9-8.0-2.1-3.7-2.1-0.9Employment (% change)-1.3-1.30.40.70.72.31.31.3Unemployment rate (%)16.316.316.316.316.114.213.111.7Labour productivity (% change)-7.0-7.03.72.95.23.82.83.0HICP inflation (%)-1.3-1.3-0.20.00.60.71.31.6GDP deflator (% change)-1.5-1.5-0.30.20.71.01.21.6Comp. of employees (per head, % change)0.00.01.30.02.01.12.12.4Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-6.2-4.6-5.9-4.2-3.5-0.70.11.1Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020212022202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -3.6-1.0n.a.-2.4n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds-1.3-0.6n.a.-0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments1.1-1.4n.a.-0.9n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-1.12.4n.a.-0.9n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure-2.3-1.4n.a.-0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-10.9-1.7-0.53.84.51.20.1Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-10.40.61.04.86.10.8-0.1Change in the structural balance-6.7-1.91.34.45.31.40.4Note:Source:20212022(% of GDP)1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

62 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue51.049.249.449.048.948.847.5-3.5of which:- Taxes on production and imports16.417.217.317.317.216.816.3-0.1- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.9.28.78.69.19.09.89.80.6- Social contributions15.314.514.613.813.813.613.1-2.2- Other (residual)10.08.98.98.88.98.68.3-1.7RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.90.91.81.71.61.6n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure60.759.259.452.251.949.246.9-13.8of which:- Primary expenditure57.756.556.649.649.346.844.6-13.1of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption18.719.018.717.617.416.515.5-3.2Compensation of employees13.413.213.112.412.211.611.0-2.4Intermediate consumption5.25.85.65.25.24.94.5-0.7Social payments23.823.523.421.822.121.120.0-3.8Subsidies3.64.14.91.31.11.01.0-2.6Gross fixed capital formation3.04.94.85.86.15.65.72.7Other (residual)8.65.04.93.12.72.52.4-6.2- Interest expenditure3.02.72.82.62.62.42.3-0.7Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.91.01.81.71.61.6n.a.General government balance (GGB)-9.7-10.0-9.9-3.2-2.9-0.40.610.3Primary balance-6.7-7.3-7.2-0.6-0.32.02.99.6GGB excl. one-offs-10.4-10.2-10.2-3.3-2.6-0.40.611.0Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)17.71.4-0.5-7.7-9.7-1.81.3-18.4Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)2.50.1n.a.5.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)11.94.56.5-6.7-9.7-1.40.7-12.6Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)2.92.5n.a.1.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)1-2.3-0.8-0.80.50.51.01.43.7Other indicatorsOutput gap2-10.8-6.9-8.0-2.1-3.7-2.1-0.95.0Cyclically-adjusted balance2-4.1-6.4-5.7-2.1-0.90.71.17.7One-offs0.60.20.30.0-0.30.00.0-0.6Structural balance3-4.7-6.6-6.0-2.2-0.60.71.18.3Structural primary balance3-1.7-3.9-3.20.52.03.13.47.7Notes:20212022(% of GDP)1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

63 

Average202320242015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio1180.8205.6208.8204.8201.5189.5176.7166.1Change in the ratio0.125.13.2-0.8-7.4-15.3-12.8-10.6Contributions2:1. Primary balance-2.76.77.37.20.60.3-2.0-2.92. “Snow-ball” effect2.022.4-4.8-4.8-10.5-11.2-7.2-7.6Of which:Interest expenditure3.33.02.72.82.62.62.42.3Growth effect-1.416.5-8.1-7.1-11.7-11.8-7.4-7.3Inflation effect0.12.90.6-0.4-1.4-2.0-2.2-2.63. Stock-flow adjustment0.7-3.70.7-3.22.6-4.3-3.50.0Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations.20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

64 

Time horizonShort termMedium term4.7HIGH risk2.5HIGH riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]0.3LOW risk-2.2LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. HIGH riskHIGH risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]118.2113.6Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioHIGH riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.6HIGH riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]HIGH risk 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

65 

2020202120222023Reduction of advanced CIT and PIT payment for enterprises and self-employedD.5Aug 2020, May 2021-0.90.40.10.4Suspension of solidarity tax in the private sectorD.5 Jan 20210-0.400.4Reduction by 3 p.p. of the SSCs of wage earners in the private sectorD.61Jan 20210-0.500.4Tax and SSC deferralsD.5, D.2, D.61March/April 2020-0.30.20.10Extension of the deadline for the payment of scheduled SSCs instalmentsD.61March 2020-0.20.10.1025% of the VAT paid on time  discounted from future tax obligations and 25% discount on tax and SSCs installment schemes paid on timemainly D.2, D.61, D.5March 2020, June 2020-0.20.200Other revenue measures (covid related)mainly D.2, D.61, D.5-0.2-0.10.30.12020-2021  ANFAs & SMPs revenueD.70-0.9-0.10Other revenue measures (non -covid related)varius categories00.2-0.1-0.1Business financing in the form of a repayable advance payment (non-repayable part)D.9 May 2020-1.80.61.00Temporary economic support to wage earners (allowance & SSC coverage) and self employed/scientists/individual businesses/small companies (allowance)D.3Apr & Dec 2020-2.00.11.70COVID Healthcare expenditures (including ICU equipment, consumables, temporary healthcare personnel, vaccination costs, rapid tests etc.) mainly P.2, D.1March 2020-0.3-0.10.20.1Non-refundable grant to SMEs via LGs and working capital grant program for restaurants and other sectorsD.3March & May 20210-0.90.90COVID expenditures of other ministriesP.2March 2020-0.20.10.10Compensation to property owners that receive reduced rentD.3Nov 20200-0.30.30Loan subsidy for fisrt residence owners and SMEs borrowers (GEFYRA I & II)D.75Dec 20/May 210-0.30.30Non-repayment of a percentage of refundable advance 1, 2, 3, on basis of turnover reductionD.99 May 20210-0.30.30Extension of the regular unemployment benefitD.62 March 2020-0.20.10.10New hirings subsidy program (subsidize SSCs on 100.000 new hirings for 6 months)D.3  Oct 20200.0-0.20.20Other subsidies aiming at supporting the primary sector of the economy, the culture sector and at promoting employmentD.3 April, July, Dec 2020 Jan 2021, Apr 2021-0.10.00.10Subsidies to the transport sectorD.3 April 2020, March 2021,        April 20210-0.10.20Support on seasonal workers (Special allowance and unemployment benefit ans SSC coverage)D.3 & D.62Jul & Ayg 2020-0.30.200Other temporary expenditure measuresvarious categories-0.3-0.10.30-7.0-2.26.11.3Reduction of CIT tax rate from 29% to 24% in 2020D.5December 2019-0.40.200PIT reduction for low incomes from 22% to 9%D.5 December 2019-0.2-0.20.10Other measures on social contributionsD.61-0.1-0.1-0.10Tax evasion fight through expansion of electronic transactionsmainly D.2 , D.5December 20190.30.100Other non-temporary measuresmainly D.5, D.2-0.20.2-0.1-0.1-0.60.2-0.1-0.1-7.6-2.06.01.21 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Total 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

66 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities1                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up 2          (% of GDP)Sure programme20200.20.2Paneuropean Guarantees' Fund20200.20.2Covid-19 FundMay 20200.91.2Subtotal     1.41.6State Guarantees to non General Government Entities2.3Entrepreneurship loan (EIB loans to Greek banks)0.9Bank Support Scheme Guarantees0.2Hercules (NPLs)1.4ETEAN & Entrepreneurship Fund 0.0Subtotal 4.8Total6.21 These figures refer to the guarantees already provided.2 These figures refer to the estimated total take-up once all the relevant guarantees are provided.In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

67 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections0.91.71.61.61.51.5Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU2.21.51.41.31.31.32020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1000000Intermediate consumption P.2000.1000Social payments D.62+D.6320.10.20.20.10.10.1Interest expenditure D.41000000Subsidies, payable D.30.10.10.10.10.10.1Current transfers D.7000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0.20.30.40.20.30.3Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0.410.910.80.8Capital transfers D.90.40.40.30.40.50.5TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE0.71.41.31.31.21.32020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue000000Other costs with impact on revenue000000Financial transactions000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

68 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EU1.41.41.11.110.5Repayments of RRF LOANS to EU0000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1000000Intermediate consumption P.2000000Social payments D.62+D.632000000Interest expenditure D.41000000Subsidies, payable D.3000000Current transfers D.7000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g000000Capital transfers D.9000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE0000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue000000Other costs with impact on revenue000000Financial transactions0.51.61.31.21.20.6Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
 
 
 
 
9. SPAIN 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

69 

20232024COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-10.8-10.85.96.56.87.03.52.1Private consumption (% change)-12.1-12.16.47.35.86.92.81.7Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-11.4-11.49.610.312.712.38.81.7Exports of goods and services (% change)-20.2-20.210.49.212.810.32.82.5Imports of goods and services (% change)-15.8-15.811.710.311.710.03.30.4Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-8.5-8.86.16.76.36.73.61.4- Change in inventories-0.3-0.30.00.00.00.00.00.0- Net exports-2.0-2.0-0.2-0.20.50.2-0.10.7Output gap1-9.3-9.6-5.0-4.90.0-0.21.11.2Employment (% change)-4.2-4.20.22.02.02.31.01.7Unemployment rate (%)15.515.515.715.214.414.113.212.7Labour productivity (% change)-3.6-3.61.32.44.74.22.41.2HICP inflation (%)-0.3n.a.1.4n.a.1.1n.a.n.a.n.a.GDP deflator (% change)1.11.11.01.21.11.51.61.9Comp. of employees (per head, % change)1.41.40.50.92.01.51.81.8Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)1.11.10.42.70.74.63.22.3Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020212022202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -0.4-2.6n.a.-0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and -0.4-0.7n.a.-0.6n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.1-0.1n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.0-0.6n.a.-0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current 0.0-1.3n.a.0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-2.9-0.9-1.30.11.30.51.3Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-2.4-0.20.70.81.00.20.0Change in the structural balance-0.5-0.7-1.2-0.30.40.20.7Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

70 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue41.341.740.541.039.539.339.3-2.0of which:- Taxes on production and imports11.211.611.311.611.111.010.9-0.3- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.11.211.011.110.710.810.911.20.0- Social contributions14.413.513.612.713.213.113.2-1.2- Other (residual)4.55.64.55.94.44.34.0-0.5RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.1.3n.a.1.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure52.349.248.946.244.543.242.5-9.8of which:- Primary expenditure50.047.146.944.242.641.440.7-9.3of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption18.417.917.617.116.516.015.7-2.7Compensation of employees12.512.012.111.411.311.110.9-1.6Intermediate consumption5.95.95.55.75.14.94.8-1.1Social payments23.321.021.519.219.819.619.5-3.8Subsidies1.91.91.41.11.11.01.0-0.9Gross fixed capital formation2.52.52.62.42.12.12.1-0.4Other (residual)3.93.83.74.43.12.82.4-1.5- Interest expenditure2.22.12.02.01.91.81.8-0.4Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.31.01.91.72.01.40.10.1General government balance (GGB)-11.0-7.6-8.4-5.2-5.0-4.0-3.27.8Primary balance-8.7-5.5-6.4-3.2-3.1-2.1-1.47.3GGB excl. one-offs-9.8-7.9-8.2-5.2-5.0-4.0-3.26.6Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)7.72.40.7-0.1-1.32.42.4-10.9Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)2.16.5n.a.1.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)7.70.80.1-0.20.13.22.8-8.2Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)1.85.2n.a.1.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)11.92.02.02.22.22.42.50.6Other indicatorsOutput gap2-9.3-5.0-4.90.0-0.21.11.210.7Cyclically-adjusted balance2-5.4-4.6-5.5-5.2-4.9-4.6-3.91.4One-offs-1.20.3-0.20.00.00.00.01.2Structural balance3-4.2-4.9-5.2-5.2-4.9-4.6-3.90.1Structural primary balance3-1.9-2.8-3.2-3.2-3.0-2.8-2.1-0.3Notes:3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

71 

Average202320242015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio198.0120.0119.6119.5116.9115.1113.3112.1Change in the ratio-1.024.5-0.4-0.5-2.7-4.4-1.8-1.2Contributions2:1. Primary balance1.08.75.56.43.23.12.11.42. “Snow-ball” effect-1.012.6-5.6-6.5-6.7-7.4-3.8-2.6Of which:Interest expenditure2.62.22.12.02.01.91.81.8Growth effect-2.711.5-6.6-7.3-7.5-7.7-3.9-2.3Inflation effect-0.9-1.1-1.1-1.3-1.2-1.6-1.8-2.13. Stock-flow adjustment-1.03.0-0.2-0.20.80.00.00.0Notes:Source:20212022(% of GDP)20201 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

72 

Time horizonShort termMedium term4.9HIGH risk2.1MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]1.2LOW risk-1.7LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. HIGH riskHIGH risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]117.4104.6Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioHIGH riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.5HIGH riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]HIGH risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

73 

20202021202220231 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. n.a.2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Totaln.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

74 

20202021202220231 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. n.a.2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Totaln.a. 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

75 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsCash disbursements of RRF grants from EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.100000Intermediate consumption P.200000Social payments D.62+D.63200.30.30.20Interest expenditure D.4100000Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE00.30.30.20Gross fixed capital formation P.51g00.20.20.10Capital transfers D.901.41.51.10.1TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE01.51.61.20.12020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a.n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

76 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EURepayments of RRF loans to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
10. FRANCE 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

77 

2023202420252026COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-8.1-8.25.75.04.24.02.31.61.41.4Private consumption (% change)-7.2-7.33.44.05.65.72.61.51.31.4Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-10.2-10.311.08.33.14.62.61.71.71.0Exports of goods and services (% change)-16.0-16.310.08.29.69.36.24.13.63.6Imports of goods and services (% change)-11.1-11.57.67.56.67.85.23.43.23.1Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-7.0-7.15.95.53.63.72.11.41.31.2- Change in inventories0.30.3-0.7-0.5-0.20.00.00.00.00.0- Net exports-1.4-1.50.50.00.70.30.20.20.10.1Output gap1-7.1-6.9-2.7-3.10.1-0.60.30.50.40.3Employment (% change)-1.1-0.90.30.41.21.00.20.20.10.2Unemployment rate (%)8.00.09.10.08.70.00.00.00.00.0Labour productivity (% change)-7.2-7.45.64.62.93.02.11.41.21.2HICP inflation (%)0.50.51.41.11.10.81.21.51.81.8GDP deflator (% change)2.22.20.50.31.11.21.21.41.61.6Comp. of employees (per head, % change)-2.7-2.74.23.62.83.33.02.82.92.8Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-2.2-2.2-1.1-1.6-0.6-1.0-1.3-0.9-0.8-0.8202020212022Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stage*Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   0.6-2.9n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other -0.1-0.6n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.3-0.2n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.10.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current 0.6-2.1n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-2.9-1.8-5.02.12.10.40.4Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-3.0-1.1n.a.1.9n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in the structural balance-1.3-2.1-2.12.12.10.30.2Notes:Source:2022(% of GDP)1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.*The large difference between the fiscal stance based on Commission’s projections and plans in the Stability Programme stem mainly from the treatment of crisis-related temporary emergency measures in 2020 as one-offs in the latter case. In 2021 however, the crisis-related temporary emergency measures are no longer considered as one-offs in government’s plans. A similar treatment of these crisis-related temporary emergency measures in 2020 would lead to broadly similar fiscal stances in both sets of projections.2021 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

78 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue52.952.152.151.551.351.050.9-2.0of which:- Taxes on production and imports17.016.716.516.816.516.516.4-0.6- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.13.312.512.212.612.212.212.2-1.1- Social contributions17.216.916.916.516.816.716.7-0.5- Other (residual)5.45.96.55.55.85.65.60.2RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.80.70.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure62.160.661.156.256.755.554.8-7.3of which:- Primary expenditure60.859.459.855.155.654.453.6-7.2of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption18.718.318.417.417.517.116.9-1.8Compensation of employees13.312.912.912.412.512.212.0-1.3Intermediate consumption5.45.55.45.05.04.94.9-0.5Social payments29.127.427.825.926.025.325.0-4.1Subsidies3.43.73.52.32.22.22.0-1.4Gross fixed capital formation3.83.94.03.94.03.93.90.1Other (residual)5.96.16.15.65.95.85.7-0.2- Interest expenditure1.31.21.31.11.11.11.2-0.1Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.7n.a.0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.General government balance (GGB)-9.2-8.5-9.0-4.7-5.3-4.4-3.95.3Primary balance-7.9-7.3-7.8-3.6-4.2-3.3-2.75.2GGB excl. one-offs-9.1-8.4-8.8-4.6-5.1-4.2-3.95.2Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)8.03.4n.a.-1.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)1.85.6n.a.2.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)8.83.2n.a.-1.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)2.05.7n.a.2.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)13.21.41.42.02.02.12.2-0.9Other indicatorsOutput gap2-7.1-2.7-3.10.1-0.60.30.57.4Cyclically-adjusted balance2-4.8-6.8-7.0-4.8-4.9-4.6-4.20.7One-offs-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.20.00.1Structural balance3-4.7-6.7-6.8-4.7-4.7-4.4-4.20.6Structural primary balance3-3.4-5.5-5.5-3.6-3.6-3.3-3.00.5Notes:20212022(% of GDP)1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

79 

Average20232024202520262015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPSPSPGross debt ratio197.5115.7117.4117.8116.4116.3117.2118.0118.3118.2Change in the ratio0.518.11.72.1-1.0-1.50.90.80.3-0.1Contributions2:1. Primary balance1.47.97.37.83.64.23.32.72.11.62. “Snow-ball” effect-0.77.4-5.5-4.6-4.8-4.6-2.8-2.2-2.0-1.8Of which:Interest expenditure1.71.31.21.31.11.11.11.21.31.5Growth effect-1.58.4-6.2-5.5-4.7-4.5-2.6-1.8-1.6-1.6Inflation effect-0.9-2.3-0.5-0.3-1.2-1.2-1.3-1.6-1.8-1.83. Stock-flow adjustment-0.22.60.0-1.10.2-1.10.40.30.20.1Notes:Source:20212022(% of GDP)20201 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations. 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

80 

Time horizonShort termMedium term4.7HIGH risk2.5HIGH riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]0.3LOW risk-2.2LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. HIGH riskHIGH risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]118.2113.6Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioHIGH riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.6HIGH riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]HIGH risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

81 

20202021202220231 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. n.a.2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Totaln.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

82 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Prêts garantis par l’État202013.15.7Activation d’une réassurance publique sur les en-cours d’assurance-crédit (dispositifs Cap/Cap+)20200.30.1Activation d’une réassurance publique sur les en-cours d’assurance-crédit (dispositif CapRelais)20200.10.1Mise en place d’une réassurance des crédits-ex-port de court terme20200.20SURE20200.20.2FGE (BEI)20200.20.1Prêt au FMI20200.1Subtotal     Subtotal TotalIn response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

83 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projectionsCash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

84 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EURepayments of RRF LOANS to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
11. CROATIA 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

85 

20232024COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)-8.0-8.05.05.26.16.64.13.4Private consumption (% change)-6.2-6.24.95.13.44.03.73.6Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-2.9-2.97.39.910.218.08.54.5Exports of goods and services (% change)-25.0-25.016.312.512.215.86.13.9Imports of goods and services (% change)-13.8-13.811.012.38.214.76.74.2Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-3.5-3.55.15.84.77.04.83.8- Change in inventories1.31.3-1.50.10.00.20.10.0- Net exports-5.8-5.81.4-0.81.4-0.7-0.8-0.5Output gap1-5.5-5.6-3.1-3.40.1-0.60.41.0Employment (% change)-1.2-1.20.62.31.41.61.61.4Unemployment rate (%)7.57.57.27.06.66.56.05.7Labour productivity (% change)-6.9-6.94.42.84.64.82.51.9HICP inflation (%)0.00.21.32.01.31.72.02.3GDP deflator (% change)0.40.41.72.01.71.82.12.3Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.12.11.42.90.93.53.33.2Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)1.51.60.51.92.83.12.10.0Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020212022202020232024COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -2.2-1.7n.a.-2.4n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other -0.9-1.5n.a.-1.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.3-0.1n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.00.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current -0.9-0.1n.a.-0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-4.8-0.6-1.1-1.1-1.5-0.60.5Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-3.90.70.50.3-0.7-1.0-0.6Change in the structural balance-3.61.72.6-0.1-0.20.2-0.1Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

86 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPRevenue48.049.650.549.851.050.548.90.9of which:- Taxes on production and imports19.019.719.619.620.120.020.01.0- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.76.06.05.95.75.75.6-1.1- Social contributions12.112.012.511.412.112.012.0-0.1- Other (residual)10.111.812.412.813.112.811.31.2RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.40.42.11.92.42.3n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure55.454.254.353.053.652.450.5-4.9of which:- Primary expenditure53.452.452.551.452.051.149.5-3.9of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption22.322.322.321.521.621.321.1-1.2Compensation of employees13.613.513.613.013.112.812.6-1.0Intermediate consumption8.78.88.88.58.68.58.5-0.2Social payments17.416.816.816.116.015.515.2-2.2Subsidies3.82.82.81.81.61.61.5-2.3Gross fixed capital formation5.66.36.17.47.57.16.61.0Other (residual)4.44.24.54.65.25.65.20.8- Interest expenditure2.01.81.81.61.61.31.0-1.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.40.32.12.02.42.3n.a.General government balance (GGB)-7.4-4.6-3.8-3.2-2.6-1.9-1.55.9Primary balance-5.4-2.8-2.1-1.6-1.0-0.7-0.54.9GGB excl. one-offs-7.4-4.6-3.9-3.2-2.8-2.2-2.05.5Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)10.11.31.22.44.44.54.6-5.4Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.63.8n.a.5.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)10.40.80.32.03.34.35.4-3.1Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.13.6n.a.5.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)11.93.33.33.33.33.33.31.4Other indicatorsOutput gap2-5.5-3.1-3.40.1-0.60.41.06.6Cyclically-adjusted balance2-5.0-3.2-2.3-3.3-2.3-2.1-1.93.0One-offs0.00.00.10.00.20.20.40.4Structural balance3-5.0-3.2-2.4-3.3-2.5-2.3-2.32.6Structural primary balance3-3.0-1.4-0.6-1.7-0.9-1.0-1.31.6Notes:20212022(% of GDP)1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

87 

Average202320242015-2019COMCPCOMCPCPCPGross debt ratio178.088.785.686.682.982.579.576.8Change in the ratio-2.415.9-3.2-2.2-2.7-4.1-3.0-2.8Contributions2:1. Primary balance-2.15.42.82.11.61.00.70.52. “Snow-ball” effect-0.38.0-3.8-4.1-4.5-5.0-3.6-3.2Of which:Interest expenditure2.72.01.81.81.61.61.31.0Growth effect-2.36.3-4.2-4.3-4.8-5.2-3.2-2.5Inflation effect-0.7-0.3-1.4-1.6-1.3-1.4-1.6-1.83. Stock-flow adjustment0.02.5-2.10.00.40.00.00.0Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP), Comission calculations.20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

88 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-0.9LOW risk-2.5LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]-1.1LOW risk-3.4LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. MEDIUM riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]75.667.4Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioHIGH riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.6MEDIUM riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

89 

20202021202220231 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. n.a.2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Totaln.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

90 

Measures1Date of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)COVID-19 liquidity loan portfolio insurance program and COVID-19 exporter liquidity loan insurance programavr-200.80.2Loan insurance approved under HBOR's Lending Program "COVID-19 Working capital for SMEs in tourism"avr-200.010.01Loan insurance approved under HBOR's Lending Program "COVID-19 Working capital for entrepreneurs in wood processing and furniture production"juin-20n.a.0.02COVID-19 loan guarantees in the maritime sector, transport, transport infrastructure and related activitiesjuil-200.30.04COVID-19 loan guarantees in tourism and sportfévr-210.40COVID-19 loan guarantees in culture and creative industriesjuil-200.10.01Subtotal     1.50.3Subtotal Total1 The guarantees presented excluded those that were granted to entities inside the general government.2 The reference date is 31/12/2020. The estimated take-up amounts refer to net changes from 31/12/2019 to 31/12/2020.In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

91 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.41.92.42.31.71Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU1.51.91.81.71.61.52020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE00.20.20.20.20.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0.21.21.51.51.10.7Capital transfers D.90.10.60.70.60.40.3TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE0.41.72.22.11.512020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.00.20.20.10.10n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a.n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

92 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EURepayments of RRF loans to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
12. ITALY 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

93 

20232024COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-8.9-8.94.24.54.44.82.61.8Private consumption (% change)-10.7-10.73.14.14.95.22.51.9Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-9.1-9.19.98.78.49.04.73.4Exports of goods and services (% change)-13.8-13.810.48.27.95.74.03.4Imports of goods and services (% change)-12.6-12.611.59.48.76.63.83.3Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-7.8-7.94.24.54.44.82.41.7- Change in inventories-0.3-0.30.00.10.00.10.00.0- Net exports-0.8-0.70.1-0.10.0-0.10.10.1Output gap1-8.6-8.5-4.8-4.7-1.4-1.3-0.10.4Employment (% change)-2.1-2.1-0.30.30.92.01.71.4Unemployment rate (%)9.29.310.29.69.99.28.58.0Labour productivity (% change)1.6-7.0-1.14.22.12.80.90.5HICP inflation (%)-0.1-0.11.31.01.11.31.41.4GDP deflator (% change)1.21.20.81.11.21.31.41.4Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.62.60.50.51.91.31.01.2Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)3.53.72.92.93.12.72.72.8202020212022Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   0.0-2.0n.a.-2.2n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and 0.0-0.3n.a.-0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.1-0.3n.a.-0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-1.00.5n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current 1.2-1.8n.a.-1.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-4.7-4.4-2.74.11.7-0.21.0Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-4.6-3.9-1.74.61.90.10.2Change in the structural balance-2.9-4.4-4.54.24.01.00.7Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position*  

94 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue47.847.047.446.947.547.846.3-1.5of which:- Taxes on production and imports13.914.114.314.114.314.314.20.3- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.15.314.614.614.214.214.214.2-1.1- Social contributions13.813.213.113.213.313.213.2-0.6- Other (residual)4.85.15.45.45.76.14.7-0.1RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.30.60.70.91.40.50.5Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.10.10.1Expenditure57.358.756.952.652.951.449.7-7.6of which:- Primary expenditure53.855.453.649.749.948.647.1-6.7of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption16.816.516.615.916.015.414.8-2.0Compensation of employees10.510.210.210.110.29.89.3-1.2Intermediate consumption6.36.36.45.85.85.75.5-0.8Social payments27.026.325.824.624.424.023.6-3.4Subsidies1.92.02.11.51.71.61.6-0.3Gross fixed capital formation2.72.93.23.23.23.53.20.5Other (residual)5.47.65.94.44.74.23.9-1.5- Interest expenditure3.53.33.32.93.02.82.6-0.9Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.30.60.70.91.30.50.5General government balance (GGB)-9.5-11.7-11.8-5.8-5.9-4.3-3.46.1Primary balance-6.0-8.4-6.2-2.8-2.5-0.8-0.85.2GGB excl. one-offs-9.6-11.9-12.0-5.9-6.1-4.4-3.46.2Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)11.09.24.6-7.0-2.51.22.5-7.8Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)1.44.7n.a.5.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)8.14.93.9-3.2-0.32.41.5-6.1Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)-1.15.5n.a.4.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)11.41.11.11.61.61.92.10.7Other indicatorsOutput gap2-8.6-4.8-4.7-1.4-1.3-0.10.48.9Cyclically-adjusted balance2-4.8-9.1-9.2-5.0-5.2-4.3-3.61.2One-offs0.10.20.20.20.20.10.0-0.1Structural balance3-4.9-9.3-9.4-5.1-5.4-4.4-3.61.3Structural primary balance3-1.4-6.0-6.1-2.2-2.4-1.6-1.00.4Notes:3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.*In the table, the figures related to the Stability Programme correspond to the budgetary projections transmitted by Italy. Except for the overall figures on government deficit and debt, those projections do not take into account the fiscal package announced by Italy for May 2021. This package, adopted on 20 May 2021, included additional emergency support in 2021 as well as more resources for nationally-financed investment projects in the coming years. The estimates reported for the Stability Programme in table III.a are based on those detailed budgetary projections, and therefore do not take into account the additional fiscal package.20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

95 

Average202320242015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio1134.6155.8159.8159.8156.6156.3155.0152.7Change in the ratio-0.221.24.04.0-3.2-3.5-1.3-2.3Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.56.08.48.52.83.01.50.82. “Snow-ball” effect1.214.7-4.1-4.9-5.5-6.3-3.1-2.2Of which:Interest expenditure3.83.53.33.32.93.02.82.6Growth effect-1.312.9-6.2-6.6-6.6-7.2-3.9-2.7Inflation effect-1.2-1.7-1.2-1.6-1.8-2.0-2.1-2.13. Stock-flow adjustment0.20.4-0.20.5-0.5-0.10.4-0.9Notes:Source:20212022(% of GDP)20201 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

96 

Time horizonShort termMedium term8.4HIGH risk2.5MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]-0.5LOW risk-4.4LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. HIGH riskHIGH risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]153.0130.0Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioHIGH riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.5HIGH riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]HIGH risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

97 

20202021202220231 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Totaln.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

98 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Central Guarantee Fund for SMEs17-03-2020n.a.5.8SACE- Italia Guarantee08-04-202012.11.2Commercial credits insurance19-05-20200.10.1Subtotal     7.1Central Guarantee Fund for SMEs1.2TAV S.p.A.0.1Support to rescue businesses0Guarantees provided by local authorities0.2GACS0.6Bond issues by CDP S.p.A.0.2Guarantee fund for first homes0.5Guarantee for non-market risks in favour of SACE 3.1State guarantees in favour of ILVA0.02Green New Deal Guarantees0.01Subtotal 5.9Total13.1In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

99 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections00.60.91.40.50.20Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU00.50.51.10.90.40.12020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE00.10.10.20.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51g00.40.50.80.20.1Capital transfers D.900.10.30.30.2TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00.50.81.10.40.12020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000.10.10.10.1Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)1 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

100 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EU00.50.70.61.61.51.4Repayments of RRF LOANS to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE00.20.200.10.10.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0.30.50.50.51.00.90.8Capital transfers D.900.10.20.20.20.20.1TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE0.30.60.70.71.21.10.90.80.90.71.31.21.02020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
 
 
 
 
13. CYPRUS 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

101 

20232024COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-5.1-5.13.13.63.83.83.22.8Private consumption (% change)-3.9-3.91.12.82.33.32.52.2Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-2.0-2.13.83.54.84.85.45.5Exports of goods and services (% change)-12.4-17.45.36.27.67.65.24.6Imports of goods and services (% change)-4.2-5.83.74.84.85.34.23.9Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-0.7-0.62.34.32.12.82.92.6- Change in inventories1.43.80.0-0.90.00.00.00.0- Net exports-5.8-8.20.80.41.71.00.30.2Output gap1-1.9-2.2-0.9-1.10.70.10.91.3Employment (% change)-0.6-0.60.60.71.01.52.52.5Unemployment rate (%)7.67.67.57.27.26.76.05.5Labour productivity (% change)-4.6-4.62.52.92.82.30.70.3HICP inflation (%)-1.1-1.11.71.21.11.51.52.0GDP deflator (% change)-1.5-0.71.41.21.21.51.52.0Comp. of employees (per head, % change)-3.2-3.21.62.51.82.02.02.5Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-11.6-11.8-10.9-11.2-8.8-9.7-9.0-8.5Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020212022202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -2.0-0.9n.a.-0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and -0.10.0n.a.-0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.2-0.7n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.0-0.1n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current -1.7-0.2n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-5.6-0.6-0.52.95.22.63.1Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-5.5-0.10.33.65.22.53.0Change in the structural balance-4.70.00.42.43.20.61.3Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

102 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue40.642.342.941.842.041.341.30.7of which:- Taxes on production and imports13.714.413.514.213.413.413.3-0.4- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.10.09.89.89.59.69.69.6-0.4- Social contributions11.412.012.011.911.911.812.20.8- Other (residual)5.56.17.66.27.16.56.20.7RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.40.60.80.40.40.40.4Revenue reductions financed by RRF grantsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure46.347.447.643.842.841.239.7-6.6of which:- Primary expenditure44.145.345.642.041.039.838.5-5.6of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption18.117.818.217.117.317.016.7-1.4Compensation of employees13.813.613.513.413.413.313.1-0.7Intermediate consumption4.34.24.63.73.93.83.6-0.7Social payments16.917.617.817.217.016.315.7-1.2Subsidies2.82.62.60.50.50.40.4-2.4Gross fixed capital formation2.93.53.63.53.43.33.30.4Other (residual)3.43.83.33.72.92.72.6-0.8- Interest expenditure2.22.12.01.81.81.41.2-1.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.10.30.60.80.40.40.40.4General government balance (GGB)-5.7-5.1-4.7-2.0-0.90.11.67.3Primary balance-3.5-3.0-2.7-0.20.91.52.86.3GGB excl. one-offs-5.7-5.2-4.7-2.0-0.90.11.67.3Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)14.34.62.6-4.6-7.5-3.6-4.7-19.6Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.75.6n.a.2.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)15.12.82.2-5.1-9.2-3.9-5.4-21.3Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.63.7n.a.3.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)1-0.13.23.23.33.33.43.43.5Other indicatorsOutput gap2-1.9-0.9-1.10.70.10.91.33.5Cyclically-adjusted balance2-4.7-4.6-4.1-2.4-0.9-0.40.95.5One-offs0.00.10.00.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-4.7-4.7-4.1-2.4-0.9-0.40.95.5Structural primary balance3-2.6-2.6-2.1-0.50.91.02.14.6Notes:20212022(% of GDP)1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

103 

Average202320242015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio199.4118.2112.2111.9106.6103.999.592.9Change in the ratio-3.024.2-6.0-6.3-5.7-8.0-4.4-6.7Contributions2:1. Primary balance-2.43.53.02.70.2-0.9-1.5-2.82. “Snow-ball” effect-2.37.9-3.1-3.4-3.5-3.9-3.2-3.3Of which:Interest expenditure2.62.22.12.01.81.81.41.2Growth effect-4.55.1-3.6-4.1-4.0-4.1-3.2-2.6Inflation effect-0.40.7-1.6-1.3-1.3-1.6-1.4-1.93. Stock-flow adjustment1.712.7-5.8-5.5-2.3-3.10.4-0.5Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations.20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

104 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-1.4LOW risk-2.5LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]-0.8LOW risk-1.8LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. MEDIUM riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]80.764.2Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioHIGH riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.6MEDIUM riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

105 

2020202120222023Scheme supporting Companies for Total or Partial Suspension of their Operations/ wage subsidizationD.3920201.7-0.7-0.90Strengthening of the public health sectorP.2920200.20.3-0.50Tourism supportD.7520200000Overseas student allowanceD.7520200.1-0.100Special absence leaveD.6220200.1-0.1-0.020Suspension of NHS increased contributionsD.120200.00.0200Sickness allowance D.6220200.1-0.0500Small business support schemeD.3920200.2-0.1-0.10NHS health expenditureD.6320192.01.30.10.05National Health System (NHS)D.120190.10.10.010Gradual abolition of wage cuts (public sector)D.120180.20.20.20.2RepatriationP.220200.05-0.0500Subsidization scheme of very small and small enterprises and self-employedD.3920200.50.6-1.00Special Support Allowance for The UnemployedD.6220200.10.01-0.10Special Plans for farmers/ fisheries/ animal welfare organizations etcD.7520200.01-0.0100Expenses related to various consumables for the prevention of the spread of covid-19P.220200.03-0.0300Other expenses for possible needs related to the second wave of the pandemic crisisD.75202100.2-0.20National Health System (NHS)D.6120190.80.60.20.1Social security contributions/ increase in 2024 as per the related to the issue LawD.6120140000Temporary contributionD.520170000VAT on landD.220180000Hydrocarbons bonusD.42017-0.2000Immovable property taxD.520170000Suspension of NHS increased contributionsD.612020-0.20.200Road tax reformD.520190000National Health System (NHS)P.11+P.12+P.131+D.39+D.7+D.9 (other than D.91) - Other20190.140.20.0040.004Excise duties on fuelD.220190000Vehicles taxationsD.220190000Kedipes' activities - rents, interests and othersD.420180000Revenue loss from special support subsidisation schemesD.612020-0.40.10.20Reduction of the VAT special ratesD.22020-0.10.100Tax credit for voluntary rent reductionD.5202000-0.10.1-5.0-0.52.9-0.01Interest Subsidy Scheme for new business loansD.39202000.10-0.033Interest Subsidy Scheme for housing loansD.39202000.1000-0.100.03-5.0-0.72.90.031 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Total 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

106 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Support to the tourism sector in the form of government guarantees related to credit notes issued for the cancellation of contracts due to the pandemic of COVID-19, in case of insolvency of the issuers20200.40Subtotal     0.40Stock of Government Guarantees (excluding related to Covid-19 and linked to the financial sector)8.80APS exposure (linked to the financial sector)7.50Subtotal 16.30Total16.70In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

107 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections00.60.40.40.4Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU00.60.40.40.42020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE00000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g00.60.40.40.4Capital transfers D.900000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00.60.40.40.42020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue00000Other costs with impact on revenue00000Financial transactions00000n.a.n.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.Aa. 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

108 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EU00000Repayments of RRF LOANS to EU000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE00000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g00000Capital transfers D.900000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue00000Other costs with impact on revenue00000Financial transactions00000n.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.an.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
14. LATVIA 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

109 

20232024COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-3.6-3.63.53.06.04.53.22.8Private consumption (% change)-10.0-10.06.54.08.910.14.02.6Gross fixed capital formation (% change)0.20.24.34.17.17.62.52.5Exports of goods and services (% change)-2.7-2.76.54.36.14.74.04.0Imports of goods and services (% change)-3.3-3.310.24.96.05.44.03.3Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-5.4-5.45.63.76.08.03.42.6- Change in inventories1.41.30.0-0.10.0-2.7-0.1-0.1- Net exports0.40.5-2.1-0.60.0-0.7-0.20.3Output gap1-3.6-3.2-3.0-2.7-0.2-1.0-0.20.6Employment (% change)-2.3-1.90.1-0.41.81.00.30.0Unemployment rate (%)8.18.18.28.36.97.16.35.9Labour productivity (% change)-1.3-1.83.43.44.13.52.82.8HICP inflation (%)0.10.21.71.42.02.02.02.0GDP deflator (% change)0.10.12.21.42.11.82.02.1Comp. of employees (per head, % change)5.36.23.94.04.35.05.05.0Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)4.74.71.64.52.34.42.82.8Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020212022202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -0.5-0.9n.a.-0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other 0.4-0.5n.a.-0.6n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.5-0.2n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.10.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current -0.4-0.1n.a.-0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-3.4-2.9-3.54.05.71.90.8Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-3.7-2.4-2.74.36.80.91.1Change in the structural balance-1.7-2.9-4.84.36.01.10.7Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

110 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue39.139.639.339.739.939.038.6-0.5of which:- Taxes on production and imports14.214.414.514.314.514.414.40.2- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.27.17.17.17.37.27.20.0- Social contributions10.510.210.110.210.110.110.1-0.4- Other (residual)7.17.87.68.18.07.36.9-0.2RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.80.80.81.11.1Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure43.646.948.641.742.540.339.0-4.6of which:- Primary expenditure42.946.347.941.141.739.538.3-4.6of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption18.119.018.317.017.416.615.9-2.2Compensation of employees11.812.311.711.411.110.610.2-1.6Intermediate consumption6.36.76.65.66.35.95.7-0.6Social payments13.714.914.013.913.513.313.2-0.5Subsidies1.31.41.41.21.21.11.0-0.3Gross fixed capital formation5.76.26.06.16.45.55.80.1Other (residual)4.24.88.32.93.43.12.4-1.8- Interest expenditure0.70.60.70.60.80.80.70.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.10.00.80.90.91.11.1General government balance (GGB)-4.5-7.3-9.3-2.0-2.7-1.3-0.34.2Primary balance-3.9-6.7-8.6-1.4-1.9-0.60.34.2GGB excl. one-offs-4.6-7.3-9.3-2.0-2.7-1.3-0.34.3Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)12.711.111.7-6.5-10.61.02.1-11.0Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.76.0n.a.5.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)9.314.014.7-6.6-12.81.81.0-9.8Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)3.85.2n.a.6.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)12.54.84.84.74.74.74.62.1Other indicatorsOutput gap2-3.6-3.0-2.7-0.2-1.0-0.20.63.8Cyclically-adjusted balance2-3.2-6.2-8.3-1.9-2.3-1.2-0.52.8One-offs0.10.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.1Structural balance3-3.3-6.2-8.3-1.9-2.3-1.2-0.52.9Structural primary balance3-2.6-5.5-7.6-1.3-1.5-0.40.22.9Notes:3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

111 

Average202320242015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio138.143.547.348.946.450.348.848.5Change in the ratio-0.96.53.95.4-0.91.4-1.5-0.3Contributions2:1. Primary balance-0.23.96.78.61.41.90.6-0.32. “Snow-ball” effect-1.02.0-1.7-1.1-3.0-2.1-1.7-1.6Of which:Interest expenditure0.90.70.60.70.60.80.80.7Growth effect-1.21.4-1.4-1.2-2.6-2.1-1.5-1.3Inflation effect-0.70.0-0.9-0.6-0.9-0.8-1.0-1.03. Stock-flow adjustment0.30.6-1.1-2.00.71.6-0.31.7Notes:Source:20212022(% of GDP)20201 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

112 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-2.4LOW risk-3.3LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]-0.3LOW risk-1.5LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. LOW riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]39.036.4Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.4LOW riskLOW riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

113 

2020202120222023Extension or apportionment of the period for payment of taxes up to 3 yearsD2;D5;D6120.03.2020-0.20.10.10Possibility of not paying advance payments to PITsD520.03.2020-0.10.10.1-0.1Faster refund of VAT overpaymentsD220.03.2020-0.20.20.00Outage support for company employees, patent payers, self-employedD726.03.2020-0.2-0.10.30Wage subsidiesD714.07.2020-0.20.10.10Allowance for families with childrenD716.02.20210-0.60.60Allowance for pensioners and persons with disabilitiesD704.03.20210-0.40.40Increasing the limit on local government borrowingsP5130.04.2020-0.200.10Loans for working capitalD724.03.2020-0.20.100Credit guaranteesD724.03.2020-0.10.100Portfolio guaranteesD724.03.2020-0.10.100Guarantees for large enterprisesD714.07.2020-0.10.100Loans and interest rate subsidies to large enterprisesD702.06.2020-0.10.00.10Aid to the air transport industryD908.05.2020-0.90.80.10Health-related supportP2;P51;D1;D703.03.2020-0.5-1.51.90Reducing the financial difficulties of the agricultural, forestry, fisheries and food sectorsD317.04.2020-0.10.00.20Construction of public roads and repairs of bridgesP5129.04.2020-0.3-0.10.30Aid for passenger and freight transport operatorsD3;D7;D914.07.2020-0.30.300Gravel current assetsD710.11.20200-1.01.00High-prepared projects related to the management of the COVID-19 crisis and economic recoveryP5118.03.20210-0.40.10.3Others-0.2-0.20.40.0-3.7-2.56.00.21 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Total 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

114 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Credit guarantees24.03.20201.00.3Portfolio guarantees24.03.20200.90.0Guarantees for large enterprises14.07.20200.20.0Subtotal     2.10.3Central and local government guarantees1.7Subtotal 1.7Total2.12.0In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

115 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projections00.10.80.81.11.20.6Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU00.70.50.80.91.10.62020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10Intermediate consumption P.20Social payments D.62+D.6320Interest expenditure D.410Subsidies, payable D.30Current transfers D.70TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE000.30.30.40.40.2Gross fixed capital formation P.51g000.60.60.70.80.4Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE000.60.60.70.80.42020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a. 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

116 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EU0000000Repayments of RRF loans to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.10000000Intermediate consumption P.20000000Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.30000000Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
 
 
 
15. LITHUANIA 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

117 

20232024COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-0.9-0.82.92.63.93.23.23.2Private consumption (% change)-2.0-1.53.12.63.83.23.33.3Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-0.2-0.26.24.69.15.35.75.7Exports of goods and services (% change)0.0-1.36.54.86.06.76.06.0Imports of goods and services (% change)-5.3-6.07.95.37.17.57.47.4Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-1.2-0.93.22.64.23.13.33.3- Change in inventories-3.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.0- Net exports3.83.3-0.30.1-0.30.0-0.5-0.6Output gap1-1.8-1.6-2.9-2.4-2.6-2.1-1.3-0.1Employment (% change)-1.5-1.50.40.70.80.9-0.1-0.5Unemployment rate (%)8.58.58.38.57.17.56.96.5Labour productivity (% change)0.60.72.41.93.12.33.33.7HICP inflation (%)1.11.11.91.81.91.81.92.0GDP deflator (% change)1.10.82.01.82.11.81.92.0Comp. of employees (per head, % change)8.27.96.07.14.60.00.00.0Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)9.79.68.29.48.28.68.07.3Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020212022202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -2.7-1.7n.a.-2.0n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other 0.2-0.3n.a.-0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-1.10.3n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.4-0.3n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current -1.4-1.4n.a.-1.8n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-6.8-0.9-0.81.31.82.22.0Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-6.1-0.9-0.81.51.71.82.3Change in the structural balance-5.7-0.3-0.32.12.01.71.3Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

118 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue36.136.036.736.437.737.337.21.1of which:- Taxes on production and imports11.711.511.711.511.811.611.5-0.2- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.98.78.99.09.69.79.80.9- Social contributions10.810.710.910.711.011.010.90.1- Other (residual)4.75.15.25.25.35.05.00.3RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsn.a.0.30.30.80.81.00.90.9Revenue reductions financed by RRF grantsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure43.544.244.842.443.641.439.4-4.1of which:- Primary expenditure42.843.744.342.143.341.139.1-3.7of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption16.016.817.416.917.416.916.30.3Compensation of employees11.511.711.811.411.611.611.60.1Intermediate consumption4.65.15.65.55.75.34.70.1Social payments17.017.017.217.117.316.916.4-0.6Subsidies2.72.32.31.31.30.50.4-2.3Gross fixed capital formation4.13.94.03.94.03.83.8-0.3Other (residual)2.93.73.52.93.22.82.2-0.7- Interest expenditure0.70.50.50.30.30.30.3-0.4Expenditure financed by RRF grantsn.a.0.30.30.80.81.00.90.9General government balance (GGB)-7.4-8.2-8.1-6.0-6.0-4.0-2.25.2Primary balance-6.7-7.7-7.6-5.7-5.6-3.7-1.94.8GGB excl. one-offs-7.4-8.2-8.1-6.0-6.0-4.0-2.25.2Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)25.96.76.50.70.40.2-0.5-26.4Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)13.19.2n.a.9.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)21.97.56.81.21.00.3-0.7-23.0Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)8.99.6n.a.10.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)14.35.25.25.45.45.45.31.0Other indicatorsOutput gap2-1.8-2.9-2.4-2.6-2.1-1.3-0.11.4Cyclically-adjusted balance2-6.7-7.0-7.1-5.0-5.2-3.5-2.24.6One-offs0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-6.7-7.0-7.1-5.0-5.2-3.5-2.24.6Structural primary balance3-6.0-6.6-6.6-4.6-4.9-3.2-1.94.2Notes:20212022(% of GDP)1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

119 

Average202320242015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio138.247.351.952.154.154.257.957.9Change in the ratio-0.911.34.74.82.22.13.70.0Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.46.77.77.65.75.63.71.92. “Snow-ball” effect-1.00.7-1.7-1.5-2.6-2.1-2.3-2.5Of which:Interest expenditure1.10.70.50.50.30.30.30.3Growth effect-1.20.3-1.3-1.2-1.9-1.6-1.7-1.8Inflation effect-0.9-0.3-0.9-0.8-1.0-0.9-0.9-1.13. Stock-flow adjustment1.54.0-1.3-1.2-0.8-1.42.30.7Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations.20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

120 

Time horizonShort termMedium term0.0LOW risk-1.4LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]1.0LOW risk0.8LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. MEDIUM riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]60.149.3Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.4MEDIUM riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

121 

2020202120222023Deferrals of DST for taxpayers affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020D.52020 03-0.30.4-0.03-0.1Deferrals of DST for taxpayers affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021D.52021 010-0.20.20VAT deferrals for taxpayers affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020D.22020 03-0.30.300VAT deferrals for taxpayers affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021D.22021 010-0.20.20Purchase of personal protective equipment, reagents, medical and other equipmentP.22020 03-0.2000Additional costs for public authorities involved in emergency management, including wage supplements for staff, and additional costs for non-governmental organisations active in the social field and providing essential social servicesD.1, P.22020 03-0.2000Wage subsidies during downtime in 2020D.32020 03-0.3000Wage subsidies during downtime in 2021D.32020 120-0.800After the end of downtime and/or quarantine, aid to employers to maintain workers after downtime or to recruit unemployed persons belonging to the target groups in 2020.D.32020 05-1.1000Payment of a flat-rate sickness benefit equal to the monthly minimum consumption requirement of 1, for self-employed persons who have paid social security contributions prior to entitlement to sickness benefit and are unable to continue their activity due to an emergency situation, in 2020.D.32020 03-0.3000Payment of a flat-rate sickness benefit equal to the monthly minimum consumption requirement of 1, for self-employed persons who have paid social security contributions prior to entitlement to sickness benefit and are unable to continue their activity due to an emergency situation, in 2021.D.32020 120-0.200Temporary job-search allowance for unemployed persons not participating in active labour market policies, in 2021D.6M2020 03-0.3000Temporary job-search allowance for unemployed persons not participating in active labour market policies, in 2020D.6M2020 120-0.200Lump sum payment to beneficiaries of social insurance pensions and benefitsD.6M2020 05-0.4000The provision of sickness benefits to caregivers for children, elderly people and people with disabilities when a regime limiting the spread of infections is introduced in educational institutions or social care and employment centres, as well as for people with severe chronic diseases in 2020.D.6M2020 03-0.3000Subsidies for small enterprisesD.32020 05-0.2000Grants to small and medium-sized enterprises affected by the COVID-19 pandemic are granted under a State aid scheme in agreement with the ECD.32020 120-0.200Business support package (subsidies for companies and individuals most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, compensation of COVID-19 studies for small and medium-sized businesses, compensation to tour operators for the return of tourists from abroad following an emergency situation, reimbursement of the market tax)D.32021 030-0.300Reconstruction and repair of roads of national and local significanceP.2, P.51, D92020 03-0.3000Defrosting of funds from road maintenance and climate change programmesD.1, P.2, P.512020 03-0.3000Additional funds to accelerate the implementation of investment projects included in the Public Investment Programme;other planned investment projects not covered by the Public Investment Programme;the launch of different types of new investment projects and the acquisition of unplanned other tangible and intangible fixed assets and the financing of measures and programmes implemented by appropriations managersP.512020 03-0.6000Capital formation of a business aid fundD.92020 05-0.2000Expenditure on commitments (personal protection, medical supplies, laboratory tests, COVID-19 hotline, information technology, etc.), purchase of COVID-19 vaccine and vaccination-related services (logistics, vaccination, medical aids, etc.)P.22020 120-0.500Reimbursement of possible additional costs for the authorities for the implementation of COVID-19 related measuresP.22020 120-0.500Loss of social security contributions due to poor presence and incapacity for work due to the COVID-19 pandemicD.62020 03-0.20.040.10OtherVarious-1.1-0.40.2-0.02-6.5-2.90.6-0.1The increase of the tax-free income allowance (hereinafter referred to as “the NPD”) to EUR 300, after the extension of the threshold for the application of the NPD to 2 average wages in 2019, and the increase of the NPD to EUR 350 with effect from 1 January 2020, the change in the formula for the NPD as from 1 January 2021.D.52018 06-0.2-0.0500Suspension of transfers from the Soros budget to private pension funds in the event of a change in the funded pension schemeD.62018 060.40.0500Salary increases for teaching staffD.1-0.2-0.100Salary increases for medical personnel from 1 April 2020D.1-0.2-0.200Increase in child benefit from EUR 30 to EUR 50 in 2019, to EUR 60 in 2020, to EUR 70 in 2021D.6M2018-0.2-0.100Contributions to persons insured with State resourcesD.6M-0.2-0.1-0.10Indexation of state social insurance pensions (central government)D.6M2020 120-0.300Indexation of state social security pensions (social security funds)D.6M2020 120-0.200OtherVarious-0.01-0.70.03-0.01-0.6-1.7-0.1-0.01-7.1-4.60.5-0.11 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. Non-temporary measures2                  Subtotal                    Total2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal      
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

122 

InstrumentsDate of adoption Maximum amount of guarantees (%) of GDPUtilisation (%) of GDPTour operators’ guarantees (INVEGA)2020 070.030.01Portfolio guarantees (INVEGA)2020 060.20.1Individual guarantees (CFGF)2020 060.010.01State guarantees on loans and non-equity securities used to achieve the objectives of promoting the economy affected by emergency situations and to 2020 031.00State guarantees on the creation of a European instrument for temporary support to mitigate unemployment risks in an emergency related to the COVID-19 Problem (SURE)2020 090.160.16State guarantees on the European Guarantee Fund set up by the European Investment Bank in response to the COVID-19 pandemic2020 070.10Sub-total1.50.3State guarantees for commitments entered into by INVEGOS under guarantees1,2*0.2State guarantees for commitments entered into by the RAGGF under guarantees0,3*0.2State guarantees on loans granted to finance State investment projects and/or used to supplement the working capital of undertakings of importance to national security referred to in the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on the Protection of Objects Important to National Security0.70.2State guarantees on State-supported loans referred to in the Law on Research and Studies0.20.2State guarantees on European Investment Bank loans0.010Sub-total2.20.7Total3.71.0*The INVEGA and EAFRD guarantees related to COVID-19 measures are part of this amount.In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

123 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projections00.30.810.9Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU00.60.20.90.92020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE00.20.20.40.4Gross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00.10.60.60.52020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

124 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EURepayments of RRF loans to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
16. LUXEMBOURG  

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

125 

202320242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-1.3-1.34.54.03.34.02.72.62.6Private consumption (% change)-6.9-7.06.58.44.33.72.92.32.3Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-8.8-8.87.02.75.0-0.25.43.73.7Exports of goods and services (% change)2.52.53.08.51.86.24.44.84.8Imports of goods and services (% change)2.12.13.09.51.95.85.15.25.2Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-2.3-2.33.43.12.71.32.41.91.9- Change in inventories-0.4-0.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.0- Net exports1.41.41.10.90.62.70.20.70.7Output gap1-4.7-4.6-3.2-3.5-2.7-2.1-1.6-1.2-0.8Employment (% change)2.02.01.91.72.02.82.42.22.2Unemployment rate (%)6.86.37.46.87.36.46.67.17.6Labour productivity (% change)-3.2-3.22.52.21.31.10.30.50.4HICP inflation (%)0.00.02.12.01.61.91.91.91.9GDP deflator (% change)2.32.32.22.32.50.71.41.51.6Comp. of employees (per head, % change)-0.7-0.82.45.62.22.82.42.42.4Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)5.8n.a.7.3n.a.8.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:2020202120222020202320242025COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -1.61.6n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other -0.20.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.80.6n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.10.2n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-4.13.4n.a.0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-3.32.7n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in the structural balance-4.73.01.60.0-1.40.70.20.2Note:Source:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

126 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue43.743.643.543.143.644.344.50.8of which:- Taxes on production and imports11.011.211.511.311.511.611.70.7- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.15.715.615.215.415.315.816.00.3- Social contributions12.712.512.212.312.312.312.4-0.3- Other (residual)4.44.34.64.24.54.64.40.0RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure47.844.045.543.344.944.644.4-3.4of which:- Primary expenditure47.643.845.343.144.744.544.3-3.3of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption15.315.015.014.915.014.914.9-0.4Compensation of employees10.810.610.610.510.710.710.80.0Intermediate consumption4.54.54.44.54.24.24.1-0.4Social payments20.918.719.518.519.119.219.2-1.7Subsidies1.21.11.11.11.11.01.0-0.2Gross fixed capital formation5.04.34.54.24.64.64.5-0.5Other (residual)5.14.65.14.34.94.74.7-0.4- Interest expenditure0.20.20.20.20.20.10.1-0.1Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.General government balance (GGB)-4.1-0.3-2.0-0.1-1.3-0.40.04.1Primary balance-3.9-0.2-1.80.1-1.1-0.20.14.0GGB excl. one-offs-4.1-0.3-2.0-0.1-1.3-0.40.04.1Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)14.6-2.61.64.14.23.94.0-5.5Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)8.61.1n.a.5.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)12.8-1.22.04.84.44.14.2-3.2Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)6.62.8n.a.6.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)15.25.15.15.35.35.14.9-0.3Other indicatorsOutput gap2-4.7-3.2-3.5-2.7-2.1-1.6-1.23.5Cyclically-adjusted balance2-1.91.1-0.41.1-0.30.30.52.5One-offs0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-1.91.1-0.41.1-0.30.30.52.5Structural primary balance3-1.71.3-0.21.3-0.10.40.62.4Notes:3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

127 

Average2023202420252015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPSPGross debt ratio121.524.927.026.926.828.028.428.227.6Change in the ratio-0.12.82.12.0-0.11.10.4-0.2-0.6Contributions2:1. Primary balance-2.43.90.21.8-0.11.10.2-0.1-0.52. “Snow-ball” effect-0.70.0-1.4-1.3-1.3-1.0-0.9-1.0-1.0Of which:Interest expenditure0.40.20.20.20.20.20.10.10.1Growth effect-0.70.3-1.0-0.9-0.8-1.0-0.7-0.7-0.7Inflation effect-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.43. Stock-flow adjustment2.9-1.03.41.51.21.01.10.90.9Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations.20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

128 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-4.5LOW risk-3.8LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]7.0HIGH risk8.5HIGH risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]12.519.4Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3LOW riskHIGH riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

129 

20202021202220231 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Totaln.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

130 

20202021202220231 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. n.a.2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Totaln.a. 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

131 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsCash disbursements of RRF grants from EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

132 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EURepayments of RRF loans to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
17. HUNGARY 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

133 

202320242025COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)-5.0-5.05.04.35.55.24.14.04.2Private consumption (% change)-2.3-2.33.73.26.05.83.93.94.1Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-7.3-7.33.84.28.47.26.14.34.5Exports of goods and services (% change)-6.8-6.810.36.48.810.57.06.77.1Imports of goods and services (% change)-4.4-4.49.25.28.410.06.76.26.5Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-3.3-3.43.93.34.94.73.73.33.5- Change in inventories0.40.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.0- Net exports-2.1-2.11.11.00.60.50.40.70.7Output gap1-3.9-3.5-2.3-2.6-0.4-0.9-0.40.10.7Employment (% change)-2.2-0.91.20.01.31.10.60.30.2Unemployment rate (%)4.34.14.34.23.83.32.92.72.6Labour productivity (% change)-2.8-4.13.74.24.14.13.53.64.0HICP inflation (%)3.43.34.03.63.23.03.03.03.0GDP deflator (% change)5.75.73.73.73.73.83.73.63.5Comp. of employees (per head, % change)4.97.06.96.26.36.06.57.58.0Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)1.82.11.53.51.84.14.14.24.5Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020212022202020232024COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   0.2-1.4n.a.0.7n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other EU funds0.00.2n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.3-0.3n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-1.81.3n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current expenditure1.7-2.7n.a.1.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-3.01.20.01.2-0.20.40.2Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-3.61.0-0.31.50.30.0-0.8Change in the structural balance-2.40.60.21.40.91.80.7Note:Source:20212022(% of GDP)1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

134 

2020202320242025Change: 2020-2025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPCPRevenue43.542.442.142.041.340.638.737.7-5.8of which:- Taxes on production and imports18.217.917.617.917.316.916.516.2-2.0- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.86.76.86.66.86.96.96.90.1- Social contributions11.311.010.910.610.610.29.89.8-1.5- Other (residual)7.26.86.86.96.66.65.54.8-2.4RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.40.90.80.91.00.60.40.4Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure51.649.149.646.547.244.541.739.7-11.9of which:- Primary expenditure49.346.747.244.144.842.139.437.6-11.7of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption18.919.419.518.317.617.015.814.9-4.0Compensation of employees10.610.510.510.110.19.99.38.8-1.8Intermediate consumption8.38.9n.a.8.37.57.16.56.1-2.2Social payments12.812.512.712.012.412.011.711.3-1.5Subsidies1.71.41.41.31.21.11.00.9-0.8Gross fixed capital formation6.46.46.56.67.16.66.05.2-1.2Other (residual)9.46.97.05.86.55.34.95.2-4.2- Interest expenditure2.42.42.42.42.42.42.32.1-0.3Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.40.90.80.91.00.60.50.5General government balance (GGB)-8.1-6.8-7.5-4.5-5.9-3.9-3.0-2.06.1Primary balance-5.7-4.3-5.0-2.1-3.5-1.5-0.80.15.8GGB excl. one-offs-8.1-6.8-7.5-4.5-5.9-3.9-3.0-2.06.1Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)16.24.77.63.57.35.18.8n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)8.311.1n.a.4.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)8.012.213.02.46.07.69.7n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)3.815.2n.a.3.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. mominal 10-year average potential growth (%)18.96.96.97.07.06.86.6n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-3.9-2.3-2.6-0.4-0.9-0.40.10.74.3Cyclically-adjusted balance2-6.3-5.7-6.3-4.3-5.5-3.7-3.0-2.34.2One-offs0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-6.3-5.7-6.3-4.3-5.5-3.7-3.0-2.34.2Structural primary balance3-4.0-3.3-3.9-1.9-3.1-1.3-0.7-0.23.920212022(% of GDP)Notes:1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

135 

Average2023202420252015-2019COMCPCOMCPCPCPCPGross debt ratio171.580.478.679.977.179.377.575.773.1Change in the ratio-2.215.0-1.9-0.5-1.4-0.6-1.8-1.8-2.6Contributions2:1. Primary balance-0.75.74.35.02.13.51.50.8-0.12. “Snow-ball” effect-2.41.9-4.0-3.4-4.2-4.2-3.3-3.2-3.3Of which:Interest expenditure2.82.42.42.42.42.42.42.32.1Growth effect-2.73.2-3.7-3.2-3.9-3.8-3.0-2.9-2.9Inflation effect-2.4-3.7-2.7-2.7-2.7-2.8-2.7-2.6-2.43. Stock-flow adjustment0.97.2-2.1-2.00.80.20.10.70.9Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. 20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

136 

Time horizonShort termMedium term0.1MEDIUM risk-1.0LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]4.4MEDIUM risk2.7MEDIUM risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. MEDIUM riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]61.756.5Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.4MEDIUM riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

137 

2020202120222023Annual VAT returns of local governmentsD.2-0.10.2-0.1Suspension of the contribution to tourism development from 1 March 2020 to 31 December 2021D.2-0.1-0.020.1Measures related to the SZÉP cardD.61-0.10.00.1Capping the rate of business tax at 1 %D.2-0.20.10.1Special tax on credit institutions related to the epidemiological situationD.29;D.4;D.5;D.7;P.52;P.53;K.2;D.80.1-0.1Reducing the VAT rate for new dwellings from 27 % to 5 %D.2-0.2-0.04-0.03Other measures-0.20.00.10.013 million HUF refurbishment aid – From 2021 onwards, families raising children may apply for up to HUF 3 million for renovation aid.D.9-0.20.00.2Extension of the FAQ and GYES expiring in an emergencyD.62-0.020.02Re-allocation of EU funds and REACT EU: Employment protection wage subsidy – 70 % of net lost wage is paid by the stateD.39-0.10.1Re-allocation of EU funds and REACT EU: Job-creating wage subsidy schemeD.39-0.10.1Re-allocation of EU funds and REACT EU: Employment protection wage subsidy – 40 % wage subsidy for engineers (research and development)D.39-0.030.03Re-allocation of EU funds and REACT EU: SME efficiency-enhancing aidD.92-0.20.2Re-allocation of EU funds and REACT EU: Digital training courses for structural changeD.75-0.010.01Re-allocation of EU funds and REACT EU: Provision of liquidity to corporations (MFB current asset loan)F.4-0.10.1Re-allocation of EU funds and REACT EU: Interest-free SME re-launch of HUF 10 millionD.75-0.20.2Re-allocation of EU funds and REACT EU: Sectoral wage subsidy scheme (until the end of the emergency)D.3-0.1-0.10.1Epidemiological Defence Fund - Expenditure decided on epidemiological control, broken down by ESAD.1-0.010.01Epidemiological Defence Fund - Expenditure decided on epidemiological control, broken down by ESAP.2-0.50.5Epidemiological Defence Fund - Expenditure decided on epidemiological control, broken down by ESAP.51-0.50.4Epidemiological Defence Fund - Expenditure decided on epidemiological control, broken down by ESAP.52-0.80.7Epidemiological Defence Fund - Expenditure decided on epidemiological control, broken down by ESAF.8-0.030.02Epidemiological Defence Fund - Issuing of wage increases for health workers and protective womenD.1-0.20.2Epidemiological Defence Fund - One-off wage supplement for 2020 for health workers (HUF 500/person)D.1-0.20.2Expenditure of the Economic Protection Fund broken down by ESAD.1-0.030.02Expenditure of the Economic Protection Fund broken down by ESAD.3-0.050.05Expenditure of the Economic Protection Fund broken down by ESAD.75-0.20.020.1Expenditure of the Economic Protection Fund broken down by ESAD.92-1.11.1Expenditure of the Economic Protection Fund broken down by ESAD.99-0.30.3Expenditure of the Economic Protection Fund broken down by ESAF.5-0.50.5Expenditure of the Economic Protection Fund broken down by ESAP.2-0.10.1Expenditure of the Economic Protection Fund broken down by ESAP.51-0.20.2-5.63.90.50.3Exemption for young people from 2022D.51-0.30VAT reduction to 5 % on Braille displays and printers, edible pig internals, all milk species (ESL, UHT), restaurant services, fish, internet services, accommodation servicesD.2-0.1A further 1 % point reduction of the KIVA tax rate (in line with the reduction of the social contribution tax) in 2023D.214-0.02Introduction of a retail taxD.510.10.030.020.01Phased reduction of employers’ tax burden 2019-2023D.61;D.29;D.4;D.5;D.7;P.52;P.53;K.2;D.8-0.7-0.3-0.2-0.4Other-0.10.03-0.020.02Gradual reinstatement of the 13rd month pensionD.62-0.2-0.2-0.1Increase in medical payD.1-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.7-1.1-1.2-0.9-6.32.8-0.7-0.61 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. Non-temporary measures2                  Subtotal                    Total2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal      
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

138 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Garantiqa Loan Guarantee Garantiqa – Crisis Guarantee programme20201.0Agricultural-Enterprise Credit Guarantee Foundation – Crisis Agricultural Guarantee Programme20200.2Hungarian Export-Import Bank Zrt. – EXIM Mitigation Credit Programme20200.3Hungarian Export-Import Bank Zrt. – EXIM Compensatory Credit Coverage Programme20200.1MFB Magyar Fejlesztési Bank Zrt. – MFB Vis Maior Guarantee Programme20200.1MFB Magyar Fejlesztési Bank Zrt. – MFB Crises Credit Programme20200.4MFB Magyar Fejlesztési Bank Zrt. – MFB Competitiveness Loan Programme20200.3Subtotal     2.5Subtotal Total2.5In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

139 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections0.870.890.990.610.4Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0.090.120.120.070.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0.780.770.870.540.35Capital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsRevenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a.n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

140 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EURepayments of RRF LOANS to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
18. MALTA 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

141 

20232024COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-7.0-7.04.63.86.16.84.54.0Private consumption (% change)-7.6-7.64.42.45.85.43.02.7Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-4.5-4.58.59.210.112.53.63.2Exports of goods and services (% change)-7.8-7.85.25.15.76.94.64.2Imports of goods and services (% change)-4.1-4.16.05.94.85.83.53.3Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-1.7-1.75.24.54.44.92.72.3- Change in inventories0.60.60.00.00.00.00.00.0- Net exports-5.9-5.9-0.6-0.71.71.91.81.7Output gap1-5.6-5.5-4.5-5.2-2.1-2.5-1.1-0.1Employment (% change)2.64.11.12.21.93.53.23.0Unemployment rate (%)4.34.34.34.33.83.93.83.7Labour productivity (% change)-9.4-10.73.51.64.23.21.30.9HICP inflation (%)0.80.81.21.31.51.51.61.7GDP deflator (% change)1.41.31.62.12.02.12.22.2Comp. of employees (per head, % change)0.1-0.82.51.23.02.12.12.1Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-0.7-3.3-0.9-1.51.1-0.20.81.9Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020212022202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   0.0-4.5n.a.2.1n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other -0.1-0.8n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.1-0.4n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.2-1.1n.a.1.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current 0.3-2.2n.a.0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-6.3-1.8-2.15.55.41.61.1Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-6.4-1.1-1.15.14.21.40.6Change in the structural balance-5.7-2.2-2.05.25.11.00.5Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

142 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue36.536.936.737.036.636.235.7-0.8of which:- Taxes on production and imports10.710.710.611.411.411.511.50.8- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.13.212.913.012.813.012.812.8-0.4- Social contributions6.66.36.36.06.26.16.1-0.5- Other (residual)6.06.96.86.76.05.85.3-0.7RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.20.30.40.80.60.3n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0n.a.Expenditure46.648.748.742.442.240.138.6-8.0of which:- Primary expenditure45.347.247.541.041.139.037.5-7.8of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption21.722.422.420.820.620.019.5-2.2Compensation of employees12.212.512.512.212.011.811.6-0.6Intermediate consumption9.59.99.98.58.58.27.9-1.6Social payments10.510.410.49.89.89.69.5-1.0Subsidies5.03.94.31.51.61.51.4-3.6Gross fixed capital formation4.55.65.45.34.74.64.0-0.5Other (residual)3.65.05.13.74.53.53.1-0.5- Interest expenditure1.31.41.21.41.11.11.1-0.2Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.20.30.40.80.60.3n.a.General government balance (GGB)-10.1-11.8-12.0-5.5-5.6-3.9-2.97.2Primary balance-8.8-10.4-10.8-4.1-4.5-2.8-1.87.0GGB excl. one-offs-10.2-11.8-12.0-5.5-5.6-3.9-2.97.2Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)23.28.78.4-7.0-5.91.32.9-19.4Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)6.016.7n.a.0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)24.35.14.5-5.6-6.23.74.3-17.5Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)5.213.3n.a.3.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)16.26.16.16.06.05.65.2-1.0Other indicatorsOutput gap2-5.6-4.5-5.2-2.1-2.5-1.1-0.15.4Cyclically-adjusted balance2-7.4-9.7-9.5-4.5-4.4-3.4-2.84.7One-offs0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-7.5-9.7-9.5-4.5-4.4-3.4-2.84.7Structural primary balance3-6.1-8.2-8.3-3.1-3.3-2.3-1.74.4Notes:20212022(% of GDP)1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

143 

Average202320242015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio149.154.364.765.065.565.866.065.6Change in the ratio-3.912.310.410.70.80.80.3-0.5Contributions2:1. Primary balance-2.98.810.410.84.14.52.81.82. “Snow-ball” effect-2.63.8-1.7-1.8-3.5-4.1-3.0-2.7Of which:Interest expenditure1.81.31.41.21.41.11.11.1Growth effect-3.23.1-2.3-1.9-3.6-4.1-2.8-2.5Inflation effect-1.3-0.6-0.8-1.0-1.2-1.2-1.3-1.33. Stock-flow adjustment1.7-0.31.81.70.20.50.50.5Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations.20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

144 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-2.8LOW risk-3.7LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]5.6MEDIUM risk5.0MEDIUM risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. MEDIUM riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]60.854.7Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3MEDIUM riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

145 

2020202120222023Reduced tax on the transfer of immovable propertyD2, D5 - R2020 - 2021-0.40.20.40Reduced Excise DutyD2 - R2020-0.10.100Budget measures enabling business activityD2 - R2019 - 20210-0.100Fiscal incentives for private pensionsD5 - R2019 - 202100.000Various medical supplies and equipment in relation to COVID-19P2 - E2020 - 2021-0.60.20.40Cargo Transportation and Repatriation P2 - E2020-0.40.400Tourism Regeneration PlanD3 - E20210-0.10.10Short Term Social Measures D6 - E2020-0.10.10.020COVID-19 Business Assistance Programme and the Economic Regeneration Voucher Scheme D3 - E2020 - 2021-3.30.82.50-4.91.53.50Revenue from the Individual Investor ProgrammeP10 - R2014-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.04Government-guaranteed loans schemesD3 - E20200.0-0.10.00.1Housing ProgrammesD6 - E20200.00.000Measures to address housing affordability, pension adequacy and the integration of vulnerable individuals in society; cash payments by Government to householdsD6 - E2016 - 2021-0.6-0.10.10.1Financial support to the national airlineD9 - E2021 - 20220-1.00.11.0Other revenue measures, including measures legislated in previous budgets-0.040.01-0.03-0.02Other expenditure measures, including measures legislated in previous budgets and projects financed from the National Development and Social Fund-0.1-0.02-0.04-0.04-1.0-1.30.01.0-5.90.13.61.01 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Total 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

146 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Malta Development Bank - COVID-19 Guarantee Scheme20202.71.0EU SURE loan instrument20200.20.2Subtotal     2.91.2Non-financial corporations7.86.0Financial corporations3.71.9Households and NPISHs0.10.1Subtotal 11.68.0Total14.59.1In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

147 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections00.30.80.60.30.10Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU00.30.80.60.30.102020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g00.30.80.60.30.10Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00.30.80.60.30.102020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

148 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EURepayments of RRF LOANS to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
19. THE NETHERLANDS 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

e

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

149 

20232024COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-3.7-3.72.32.23.63.51.81.4Private consumption (% change)-6.4-6.41.10.66.56.12.32.0Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-3.6-3.62.72.42.32.81.81.1Exports of goods and services (% change)-4.3-4.36.42.65.25.23.53.1Imports of goods and services (% change)-4.3-4.36.53.06.05.44.03.7Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-3.4-3.31.72.13.53.01.91.5- Change in inventories0.1-0.10.00.00.10.0-0.20.0- Net exports-0.4-0.40.60.00.00.40.0-0.1Output gap1-3.7-3.7-2.5-2.6-0.2-0.40.20.4Employment (% change)-0.6-0.7-0.2-0.20.20.81.20.8Unemployment rate (%)3.83.84.34.44.44.74.54.5Labour productivity (% change)-3.2-3.12.52.43.32.70.60.6HICP inflation (%)1.11.11.61.91.41.41.61.6GDP deflator (% change)2.42.41.91.51.71.61.91.6Comp. of employees (per head, % change)4.96.21.50.70.90.42.32.2Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)7.88.98.18.98.69.09.19.1202020212022Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -1.20.8n.a.-0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and 0.0-0.1n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.1-0.5n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.0-0.1n.a.-0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current -1.41.5n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-4.20.2-0.12.5n.a.n.a.n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-4.30.7n.a.2.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in the structural balance-2.8-1.3-2.31.72.9-0.10.2Note:Source:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

150 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue43.943.443.542.143.142.842.9-1.0of which:- Taxes on production and imports12.112.012.212.312.112.012.0-0.1- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.13.213.412.812.413.112.913.30.1- Social contributions14.113.713.913.113.413.613.3-0.8- Other (residual)4.44.34.64.34.54.34.3-0.1RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.1n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure48.148.449.343.944.844.243.9-4.2of which:- Primary expenditure47.447.948.843.444.444.043.7-3.7of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption15.115.015.514.514.814.814.6-0.5Compensation of employees8.98.88.88.68.68.58.5-0.4Intermediate consumption6.26.16.75.96.26.26.1-0.1Social payments21.822.022.521.522.121.921.90.1Subsidies5.04.24.21.11.51.31.3-3.7Gross fixed capital formation3.43.94.03.73.83.83.80.4Other (residual)2.22.82.82.62.32.12.1-0.1- Interest expenditure0.70.50.50.40.40.20.2-0.5Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.1n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.General government balance (GGB)-4.3-5.0-5.9-1.8-1.7-1.4-1.13.2Primary balance-3.6-4.5-5.4-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.92.7GGB excl. one-offs-4.3-4.9-5.9-1.8-1.7-1.4-1.13.2Expenditure aggregate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)13.82.73.4-2.7-3.12.02.5-13.0Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)6.61.2n.a.3.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)14.70.6-0.9-2.8-0.62.12.5-12.5Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)7.3-0.6n.a.3.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)13.73.33.33.03.03.02.9-0.7Other indicatorsOutput gap2-3.7-2.5-2.6-0.2-0.40.20.44.1Cyclically-adjusted balance2-2.0-3.5-4.3-1.7-1.4-1.5-1.30.7One-offs0.0-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-2.0-3.4-4.3-1.7-1.4-1.5-1.30.7Structural primary balance3-1.3-2.8-3.8-1.2-1.0-1.3-1.10.2Notes:20212022(% of GDP)1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

151 

Average202320242015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio156.954.558.058.656.856.956.055.3Change in the ratio-3.85.73.54.1-1.2-1.7-0.9-0.7Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.53.64.55.41.31.31.10.92. “Snow-ball” effect-1.21.4-1.7-1.5-2.5-2.5-1.7-1.4Of which:Interest expenditure1.00.70.50.50.40.40.20.2Growth effect-1.31.8-1.2-1.2-2.0-1.9-1.0-0.8Inflation effect-0.9-1.2-1.0-0.8-0.9-0.9-1.0-0.93. Stock-flow adjustment-1.20.80.80.20.0-0.5-0.3-0.1Notes:Source:20212022(% of GDP)20201 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

152 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-0.3LOW risk-0.4LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]3.8MEDIUM risk3.5MEDIUM risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]50.049.5Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.2LOW riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

153 

2020202120222023Lower 'usual wage' for owner-director in 2020 and 2021 due to lower D.5: Current taxes 24-04-2020-0.1000Possibility of creating a fiscal reserve for corporations in CIT year 2019, anticipating losses in 2020D.5: Current taxes on income, wealth, etc24-04-202000.0100Other revenue measuresVarious taxesVarious0000 'TVL/TOGS', fixed cost compensationNAQ2 202000.01-0.010 'NOW', temporary employment supportNAQ2 20200.020-0.010 'TOZO', support for self-employed workers NAQ2 20200000Other additional COVID expendituresNAQ2 20200.010.01-0.020-0.10.02-0.040Delayed introduction 'excessive borrowing owner-directors from own D.5: Current taxes 24-04-20200000-0.10.02-0.0401 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. Non-temporary measures2                  Subtotal                    Total2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal      
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

154 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Total Dutch guarantees - CovidQ2 20206.00.01Including KLM guarantee, reinsurance of supplier credits, GO - corona, BMKB - corona, small credits - coronaSubtotal     6.00.01Total Dutch guarantees - Regularn.a.30.00.02Subtotal 30.00.02Total36.00.02In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

155 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsCash disbursements of RRF grants from EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

156 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EURepayments of RRF loans to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
20. AUSTRIA 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

157 

20232024COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-6.6-6.63.41.54.34.71.61.8Private consumption (% change)-9.6-9.63.01.15.34.62.72.0Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-4.9-4.94.83.53.34.4-1.70.9Exports of goods and services (% change)-10.4-10.47.52.37.27.84.94.5Imports of goods and services (% change)-10.2-10.28.23.56.66.54.74.4Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-5.8-5.83.41.73.73.71.11.5- Change in inventories-0.3-0.30.00.30.00.10.10.1- Net exports-0.4-0.40.0-0.50.50.90.30.3Output gap1-5.5-4.9-3.2-4.1-0.2-0.60.00.7Employment (% change)-1.7-1.71.20.81.32.00.60.6Unemployment rate (%)5.45.45.05.14.84.84.64.5Labour productivity (% change)-5.0-5.02.20.72.92.70.60.6HICP inflation (%)1.41.41.81.81.61.81.71.7GDP deflator (% change)1.11.11.31.21.71.71.61.6Comp. of employees (per head, % change)0.2-0.10.70.91.81.72.12.2Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)2.62.62.11.32.62.10.00.0202020212022Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -1.2-1.6n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other 0.0-0.1n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.0-0.3n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.0-0.4n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current -1.1-0.9n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-6.6-0.10.03.22.91.00.2Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-6.70.20.23.23.11.00.0Change in the structural balance-5.10.00.02.92.11.00.1Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

158 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue49.048.448.548.447.948.348.3-0.7of which:- Taxes on production and imports13.713.513.613.713.313.313.3-0.4- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.12.912.812.513.112.413.013.20.3- Social contributions16.215.916.115.415.715.615.6-0.6- Other (residual)6.26.36.36.16.56.46.20.0RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.10.30.30.30.20.2Revenue reductions financed by RRF grantsn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure57.956.056.951.352.251.350.8-7.1of which:- Primary expenditure56.554.755.750.251.150.349.9-6.6of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption18.218.218.517.417.617.317.1-1.1Compensation of employees11.411.111.410.911.010.910.8-0.6Intermediate consumption6.87.17.26.66.66.46.3-0.5Social payments24.924.324.823.523.623.523.4-1.5Subsidies5.33.53.51.01.61.51.5-3.8Gross fixed capital formation3.43.63.53.53.53.43.40.0Other (residual)4.75.15.44.94.94.64.5-0.2- Interest expenditure1.31.21.21.11.11.00.9-0.4Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.10.10.30.20.20.20.2General government balance (GGB)-8.9-7.6-8.4-3.0-4.3-3.0-2.56.4Primary balance-7.5-6.3-7.1-1.9-3.2-2.0-1.65.9GGB excl. one-offs-8.9-7.6-8.4-3.0-4.3-3.0-2.56.3Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)15.52.52.1-3.6-3.00.72.8-12.7Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.65.6n.a.2.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)16.51.30.7-3.9-3.51.02.9-13.6Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)4.74.5n.a.2.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)12.22.52.52.82.82.92.90.7Other indicatorsOutput gap2-5.5-3.2-4.1-0.2-0.60.00.75.6Cyclically-adjusted balance2-5.7-5.7-6.0-2.9-4.0-3.0-2.93.1One-offs0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-5.7-5.8-6.0-2.9-4.0-3.0-2.93.1Structural primary balance3-4.4-4.5-4.8-1.8-2.9-2.0-2.02.7Notes:3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

159 

Average202320242015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio178.283.987.289.685.088.188.187.6Change in the ratio-2.713.43.35.7-2.2-1.50.0-0.5Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.37.56.37.11.93.22.01.62. “Snow-ball” effect-0.95.4-2.6-1.0-3.8-4.3-1.7-2.0Of which:Interest expenditure1.91.31.21.21.11.11.00.9Growth effect-1.54.9-2.7-1.2-3.5-3.9-1.3-1.5Inflation effect-1.3-0.8-1.1-1.0-1.4-1.5-1.4-1.43. Stock-flow adjustment-0.40.4-0.5-0.4-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.1Notes:Source:20212022(% of GDP)20201 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

160 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-0.4LOW risk-0.6LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]1.3LOW risk0.8LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. MEDIUM riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]71.279.5Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.4MEDIUM riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

161 

2020202120222023COFAG (fixed cost subsidy, sales replacement, liabilities,...)3)D.3 (D.9)2.01.00.20.1Short-time work4)D.31.60.8Protective screen for organizersD.30.1Loss replacement (wine, pork and potatoes)D.30NPO Fund4)D.70.10.2Medical equipment, masks, testsP.20.10.1Special Purpose Grants Act (1450, Protective equipment, health infrastructure) P.20.10.1Vaccination programmeP.200.10Austrian Health Insurance FundP.20Test strategy tourism, pharmacy testing, operational testingP.2/D.300.1Epidemic LawP.2 (D.62)00.1Hardship Fund4)D.620.20.3One-time payment for unemployedD.620.10Increase in unemployment assistanceD.6200Family Hardness CompensationD.6200Child bonusD.620.2Leave of absence for pregnant womenD.620Support for artists and cultural institutionsD.6200Long-term care fund/dedicated long-term care subsidy, dementia pilot projects, etc.D.62/D.6300Municipal Investment ActP.50.10.20Other expenditure-side temporary measures-0.10.10VAT reduction in the gastronomy, masks, hotel industry, etc.D.2 (Revenue)0.20.40.1Loss carrybackD.5 (Revenue)0.50.50.2-0.2Other revenue-side temporary measuresD.2/D.5 (Revenue)0.15.54.30.6-0.2Investment premiumD.900.40.30.3Domestic environmental subsidies and new renovation campaignD.90000Expansion of renewable energiesD.90000Universities (increase total 2022-2024)D.1/P.2000.10.1Pension decisions (early starter bonus, abolition of pension without deductions, ...)D.620000Pension adjustmentD.6200.10.10.1Research institutions (ISTA, ÖAW, FWF, ...)D.70000Environmental protection, climate-friendly industries, rural developmentD.70000Forestry Package/Forest Fund ActD.30000Economic stimulus package: Expansion of public transport for federal, state and local governmentsP.50000Other longer-term expenditure measures -0.050.30.20.1Gastronomy package: tax exemption meal vouchers, flat rate for restaurantsD.2 (Revenue)00.10.10.1Introduction of declining balance depreciationD.5 (Revenue)00.10.30.4Wage tax: reduction of the first rate bracket from 25 % to 20 %D.5 (Revenue)0.40.50.40.4Home office packageD.5 (Revenue)0000Other longer-term revenue-side measuresD.2/D.5 (Revenue)00000.51.51.61.56.05.82.21.43) Due to ongoing application periods for 2020 for some COFAG crisis measures, adjustments regarding the impact between 2020 and 2021 will be necessary.4) ESA values include time adjustments to assign payments according their timely economic impact, e.g. +677 mn. for short time labour in 2020, -677 in 2021.2) In this table, temporary measures are those that do not have a budgetary impact of 0.1 % of GDP after 2022 (except for COFAG liabilities).    Non-temporary measures2Measures1,3,4ESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Total1) Excluding measures financed by ARP funds. Table includes only federally funded measures. 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

162 

Measures1, 2, 3Date of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)aws SME Promotion Act (aws KMU-FG)1.00.7aws Guarantee Act 1977 (aws GG)0.50.1ÖHT SME Promotion Act (ÖHT KMU-FG)0.40.3ÖHT Authorized to perform travel services3)0.10.01OeKB Special Framework KRR (Kontrollbank Refinancing Framework)0.80.5OeKB 90 %0.2Subtotal     2.81.8Subtotal Total1 Budgetary effects resulting from liabilities (write-downs) can be found in Table 19.2 As of 15 March 20213 According to Section 7 (2b) of the Austrian SME Promotion Act (KMU-FG)AWS - Austria Wirtschaftsservice, ÖHT - Österreichische Hotel- und Tourismusbank , OeKB - Österreichische KontrollbankIn response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

163 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projections00.10.30.30.2Cash disbursements of RRF grants from EU00.10.30.30.22020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.100000Intermediate consumption P.200.10.100Social payments D.62+D.63200000Interest expenditure D.4100000Subsidies, payable D.300000Current transfers D.700000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE00.10.10.10.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51g00000Capital transfers D.9000.10.10.1TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE000.10.20.12020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsRevenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a.n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

164 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EURepayments of RRF loans to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
21. POLAND 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

165 

202320242025COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)-2.7-2.74.03.85.44.33.73.5n.aPrivate consumption (% change)-3.1-3.14.24.35.94.44.03.3n.aGross fixed capital formation (% change)-9.6-9.63.72.07.23.92.25.8n.aExports of goods and services (% change)-0.2-0.28.88.86.97.34.54.0n.aImports of goods and services (% change)-1.9-1.99.29.47.37.85.24.6n.aContributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-2.7-3.53.63.45.24.13.93.6n.a- Change in inventories-0.8-0.80.00.00.00.20.20.1n.a- Net exports0.80.80.40.20.20.1-0.1-0.1n.aOutput gap1-2.0-1.7-1.2-1.10.7-0.10.40.5n.aEmployment (% change)0.1-0.10.00.10.20.00.00.0n.aUnemployment rate (%)3.23.23.53.43.33.02.52.0n.aLabour productivity (% change)-2.8-2.84.03.65.24.33.73.5n.aHICP inflation (%)3.73.73.53.12.92.82.62.5n.aGDP deflator (% change)4.14.12.82.42.52.21.81.9n.aComp. of employees (per head, % change)4.64.35.96.16.06.45.85.3n.aNet lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)4.86.05.03.94.93.21.90.0n.a202020212022Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020232024COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -0.50.2n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other 0.0-0.1n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.1-0.2n.a.-0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.80.4n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current 0.30.0n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-4.82.8n.a.1.7n.a.n.a.n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-4.93.0n.a.2.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in the structural balance-3.72.3-0.21.02.21.00.6Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
166 

 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

167 

2020202320242025Change: 2020-2025COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPCPRevenue41.741.841.541.041.241.041.0n.a.n.a.of which:- Taxes on production and imports14.014.414.714.314.614.314.3n.a.n.a.- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.8.07.98.07.78.08.38.6n.a.n.a.- Social contributions14.714.514.314.114.314.414.3n.a.n.a.- Other (residual)5.05.14.54.94.34.03.8n.a.n.a.RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.4n.a.0.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure48.746.048.443.345.444.243.50.0-48.7of which:- Primary expenditure47.444.847.242.244.343.242.5n.a.n.a.of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption16.816.716.916.517.017.117.0n.a.n.a.Compensation of employees10.910.710.910.610.710.610.5n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption5.96.0n.a.5.96.36.56.5n.a.n.a.Social payments18.718.919.317.918.518.518.40.0-18.7Subsidies3.81.41.40.40.40.40.30.0-3.8Gross fixed capital formation4.44.74.84.94.84.34.30.0-4.4Other (residual)3.63.14.82.53.62.92.50.0-3.6- Interest expenditure1.31.21.21.11.11.01.0n.a.n.a.Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.4n.a.0.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.General government balance (GGB)-7.0-4.3-6.9-2.3-4.2-3.2-2.50.07.0Primary balance-5.7-3.1-5.7-1.2-3.1-2.2-1.5n.a.n.a.GGB excl. one-offs-7.2-4.5-7.1-2.5-4.4-3.2-2.5n.a.n.a.Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)19.9-0.65.01.50.02.73.9n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)8.85.4n.a.5.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)18.8-0.53.91.0-0.93.73.5n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)6.76.2n.a.5.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. mominal 10-year average potential growth (%)17.56.26.25.95.95.95.8n.a.n.a.Other indicatorsOutput gap2-2.0-1.2-1.10.7-0.10.40.50.01.7Cyclically-adjusted balance2-5.9-3.7-6.3-2.7-4.2-3.4-2.80.06.1One-offs0.30.20.20.20.20.00.0n.a.n.a.Structural balance3-6.2-3.9-6.5-2.9-4.4-3.4-2.8n.a.n.a.Structural primary balance3-4.9-2.7-5.3-1.7-3.3-2.4-1.8n.a.n.a.Source:Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.Notes:1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offs20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

168 

Average2023202420252015-2019COMCPCOMCPCPCPCPGross debt ratio150.157.557.160.055.159.258.757.9n.a.Change in the ratio-1.111.9-0.32.5-2.1-0.8-0.5-0.8-57.9Contributions2:1. Primary balance-0.15.73.15.71.23.12.21.5n.a.2. “Snow-ball” effect-1.30.6-2.5-2.1-3.1-2.5-2.1-2.0n.a.Of which:Interest expenditure1.61.31.21.21.11.11.01.0n.a.Growth effect-2.11.2-2.2-2.1-2.9-2.4-2.1-1.9n.a.Inflation effect-0.7-1.9-1.5-1.2-1.3-1.2-1.0-1.0n.a.3. Stock-flow adjustment0.35.5-0.8-1.1-0.1-1.3-0.6-0.3n.a.Notes:Source:20212022(% of GDP)20201 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP), Comission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

169 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-1.5LOW risk-1.8LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]2.4MEDIUM risk1.4LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]44.847.1Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.4LOW riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

170 

2020202120222023Standstill benefit for persons working under civil law contracts and self-employed persons D.3920200.30.20.10Health care and social security contribution exemptionsD.392020-0.60.50.10Wage subsidies for firmsD.392020-0.70.40.20Financial subsidies-PFR Financial Shields for micro, small and medium enterprisesD.392020-1.81.40.40Additional parental allowance for school closuresD.622020-0.10.00.10Polish Tourist VoucherD.6320200.0-0.10.20Additional social benefits from Social Insurance Fund and solidarity allowance from the Labour FundD.622020-0.10.00.10Financial support for the health sector during pandemic and other health expenditures from the Counteracting Fund COVID-19 D.73, P.22020-0.2-0.40.60Other expenditures, i.a.: support for railway operators of passanger transport, payment from Counteracting Fund COVID-19 to the Social Insurance Fund and payment from Counteracting Fund COVID-19 to Minister of Economy (i.a. subsidies to the interest rate of bank loans granted to entrepreneurs)D.732020-0.20.10.10Grants for micro- and small enterprisesD.992020-0.40.20.20Introduction of the estonian tax and measures aimed at sealing CITD.520210-0.1-0.1-0.02Introduction of a power fee (including VAT impact)D.2202100.30.00Non-collection of tax (CIT, PIT) arising from the value of redeemed payments (financial subsidies) granted from PFR to entrepreneurs in 2020 under Financial ShieldD.520210-0.20.10.1                  Subtotal-4.22.31.90.03Local investment FundP.512020-0.1-0.30.30.2Sales of the unused greenhouse gas emission allowancesD.220200.3-0.04-0.01-0.2                  Subtotal 0.2-0.30.2-0.1                   Total-4.12.02.2-0.02Non-temporary measuresBudgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measuresMeasuresESA Code Date of adoption  
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

171 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)1. State Treasury guarantees related to the issue of bonds by the Polish Development Fund April 20207.83.52. State Treasury guarantees for BGK's liabilities incurred for the purposes of the COVID-19 Counteracting FundMarch 20208.15.43. State Treasury guarantees for BGK's liabilities incurred for the purposes of the National Guarantee FundMarch 2020--4. State Treasury guarantees for BGK's liabilities incurred for the purposes of the  Liquidity Guarantee Fund of BGKMarch 2020--Subtotal     15.98.9Usual guarantees - contingent liabilities-6.75.1Subtotal Total22.614In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

172 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF grants as included in the revenue projectionsCash disbursements of RRF grants from EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

173 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF loans from EURepayments of RRF loans to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
22. PORTUGAL 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

174 

202320242025COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-7.6-7.63.94.05.14.92.82.42.2Private consumption (% change)-5.9-5.94.02.83.83.72.22.12.1Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-1.9-1.94.64.06.98.08.66.35.7Exports of goods and services (% change)-18.6-18.610.38.78.97.95.14.84.6Imports of goods and services (% change)-12.0-12.09.55.46.06.06.05.65.4Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-4.1-4.63.82.94.14.23.22.82.6- Change in inventories-0.6-0.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.0- Net exports-2.9-2.90.11.11.00.7-0.4-0.4-0.4Output gap1-5.6-5.9-3.3-3.7-0.2-1.1-0.20.61.2Employment (% change)-1.7-1.71.00.21.21.10.80.80.8Unemployment rate (%)6.96.86.87.36.56.76.46.05.8Labour productivity (% change)-5.9-5.92.93.83.93.82.01.61.4HICP inflation (%)-0.1-0.10.90.81.10.91.11.31.5GDP deflator (% change)2.42.41.41.31.51.31.41.41.4Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.92.82.82.52.82.62.92.62.5Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)0.10.10.52.11.13.43.43.02.6Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Note:Source:202020212022202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   0.4-2.3n.a.-1.1n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other -0.2-1.3n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.1-0.2n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.1-0.2n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current 0.8-0.7n.a.-0.7n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-2.7-1.8-1.40.41.00.50.2Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-2.6-0.5-0.10.60.80.80.1Change in the structural balance-0.8-1.2-0.90.00.20.50.2Note:Source:20212022(% of GDP)1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

175 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue42.843.543.642.442.242.242.0-0.8of which:- Taxes on production and imports14.414.214.213.913.913.813.8-0.6- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.9.99.59.59.49.39.39.4-0.5- Social contributions12.612.312.312.112.011.911.9-0.7- Other (residual)5.87.67.67.07.07.26.91.1RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.30.31.31.31.51.31.3Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure48.448.248.145.845.444.443.6-4.8of which:- Primary expenditure45.645.645.543.443.042.241.7-3.9of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption17.317.517.216.816.516.316.2-1.1Compensation of employees11.711.811.511.511.211.111.0-0.7Intermediate consumption5.65.65.65.35.35.25.2-0.4Social payments19.819.519.618.918.718.518.4-1.4Subsidies1.82.02.10.50.50.50.4-1.4Gross fixed capital formation2.22.52.63.23.33.63.61.4Other (residual)4.54.14.04.14.03.23.1-1.4- Interest expenditure2.92.62.62.42.42.21.9-1.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.30.41.31.41.61.31.3General government balance (GGB)-5.7-4.7-4.5-3.4-3.2-2.2-1.64.1Primary balance-2.8-2.1-1.9-1.0-0.80.10.33.1GGB excl. one-offs-5.0-5.0-4.7-3.3-3.2-2.2-1.63.4Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)9.73.93.01.60.31.12.9-6.0Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)2.25.3n.a.5.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)7.63.62.90.90.71.62.5-4.3Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)1.54.5n.a.4.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)13.52.62.62.92.93.03.0-0.6Other indicatorsOutput gap2-5.6-3.3-3.7-0.2-1.1-0.20.66.4Cyclically-adjusted balance2-2.7-2.9-2.5-3.3-2.6-2.1-1.90.6One-offs-0.70.30.3-0.1-0.10.00.00.7Structural balance3-2.0-3.2-2.8-3.2-2.6-2.1-1.90.0Structural primary balance30.8-0.6-0.2-0.8-0.20.10.0-1.0Notes:20212022(% of GDP)1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

176 

Average2023202420252015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPSPGross debt ratio1125.4133.6127.2128.0122.3123.0120.7117.1114.3Change in the ratio-3.216.8-6.4-5.6-5.0-5.0-2.3-3.6-2.8Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.82.82.11.91.00.8-0.1-0.3-0.72. “Snow-ball” effect-1.59.3-4.1-4.2-5.5-5.1-2.8-2.6-2.3Of which:Interest expenditure3.82.92.62.62.42.42.21.91.8Growth effect-3.19.3-5.0-5.1-6.1-5.9-3.3-2.8-2.5Inflation effect-2.2-2.9-1.7-1.7-1.8-1.6-1.7-1.6-1.63. Stock-flow adjustment0.24.5-4.3-3.2-0.3-0.70.6-0.70.3Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations.20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

177 

Time horizonShort termMedium term1.3MEDIUM risk-0.7LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]-4.2LOW risk-5.5LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. HIGH riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]105.2100.3Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioHIGH riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.6HIGH riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]HIGH risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

178 

202020212022202320242025"Ativar" programmeD.3920200.010.1-0.1IVAucherD.3920210.1-0.1Additional wage spending in the National Health Service (overtime, bonuses, and staff reinforcements)D.120200.10.04-0.1COVID-19 testsD.63220200.030.01-0.02-0.02COVID-19 vaccinesP.2202000.2-0.1-0.1Personal protective equipment and other health-related spendingP.220200.3-0.05-0.2-0.1Temporary reduction of VAT on disinfectant gel and masksD.220210.01-0.010REACT- EU and European Social FundD.72020-0.1-0.91.0Extraordinary support for workers' incomeD.62+D.3920200.20.1-0.3Prophylactic isolation and sickness benefitD.6220200.10.03-0.1Social protection support, including exceptional family supportD.6220200.1-0.01-0.05Financial support to TAP Air PortugalD.920200.6-0.1-0.1-0.3Labour costs support to firmsD.3920211.0-0.2-0.7Fixed costs support to firmsD.3920210.40.3-0.6Other investments and supportD.720210.10.2-0.3Transfer from the Mutual Agricultural Credit Guarantee Fund to the Bank of PortugalD.920200.00.0Court decisions related to the remuneration of police officersD.920200.1-0.1Reimbursement of European Financial Stability Facility pre-paid marginsD.92021-0.50.5BPP guarantee recoveryD.920200.00.00.0Capital injection into Novo BancoD.920200.5-0.3-0.2Conversion of deferred tax assetsD.920200.10.00.0-0.13.3-1.2-0.9-0.9Extraordinary increase in pensionsD.6220210.1Spending reviewP.22021-0.1-0.04-0.03-0.02-0.02Reduction of VAT on electricityD.220210.1Reduction of PIT withholdingsD.520210.1Extraordinary tax credit for investmentD.520210.1-0.01-0.1-0.010PT2020 revenue: structural investmentsD.92021-0.2-0.040.020.10.1Progressions, promotions and other public wage policy measures (PIT, contributions to Social Security and ADSE)D.52021-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Progressions, promotions and other public wage policy measuresD.120210.40.30.30.30.3Structural investmentsP.5120210.40.2-0.1-0.2-0.2Execution of guaranteesD.920210.0300.010-0.01Additional investment financed by RRF loansP.5120210.1-0.030.040.02-0.010.90.20.10.040.023.3-0.4-0.6-0.9-0.010.041 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 A positive (negative) sign corresponds to a worsening (improvement) of the budget balance.3 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Measures1,2ESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures3                 Subtotal     Non-temporary measures3                  Subtotal                    Total 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

179 

Measures1Date of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities1                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Credit line to support firms ("Linha Capitalizar 2018" - COVID-19)12-03-20200.10.1COVID-19 credit line to support the economy30-03-20202.52.4COVID-19 credit line to support the economy in Madeira ("Linha Investe RAM" - COVID-19)27-04-20200.040.03COVID-19 specific credit line to support firms in the Azores04-06-20200.10.1COVID-19 financial guarantees29-07-20200.030.03COVID-19 credit line to support micro and small enterprises ("Linha de Apoio à Economia COVID-19 - MPE")06-08-20200.40.42020 support credit line in Madeira ("Linha de Crédito Apoiar Madeira 2020")03-09-20200.010COVID-19 social sector support credit line ("Linha de Apoio ao Setor Social COVID-19")14-09-20200.10.05COVID 19 economy support credit line - exporters18-01-20210.10.1COVID 19 economy support credit line - events18-01-202100COVID 19 economy support credit line - travel agencies and tour operators23-02-20210.040Pan-European Guarantee Fund (EGF)24-08-20200.1Instrument for temporary support to mitigate unemployment risks in an emergency (SURE)18-09-20200.2Subtotal     3.73.2State-owned enterprises0.6-0.03Other0.6-0.1Portfolio Guarantee European Investment Bank0-1.3Subtotal 1.2-1.41 The guarantees presented excluded those that were granted to entities inside the general government.2 The reference date is 31/12/2020. The estimated take-up amounts refer to net changes from 31/12/2019 to 31/12/2020.In response to COVID-19Others2 
 
 
 
180 

 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

181 

202020212022202320242025RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections0.31.31.51.31.1Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU0.61.21.51.31.1202020212022202320242025Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.20.00.10.10.10.1Social payments D.62+D.6320.00.00.00.00.0Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.30.00.10.10.00.0Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0.10.20.20.10.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0.20.81.00.90.8Capital transfers D.90.10.40.40.30.2TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE0.31.11.31.21.0202020212022202320242025Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsRevenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a. 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

182 

202020212022202320242025Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EU0.70.20.10.10.1Repayments of RRF LOANS to EU202020212022202320242025Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51g0.10.10.10.10.1Capital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE0.10.10.10.10.1202020212022202320242025Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactions0.60.1000n.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
23. ROMANIA 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

183 

20232024COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)-3.9-3.95.15.04.94.85.04.9Private consumption (% change)-5.2-5.26.15.15.94.94.94.7Gross fixed capital formation (% change)6.86.85.87.07.48.89.48.6Exports of goods and services (% change)-9.7-9.79.88.38.75.76.05.6Imports of goods and services (% change)-5.1-5.111.410.110.17.27.36.7Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-1.3-1.35.85.25.95.65.85.5- Change in inventories-0.9-0.90.40.90.00.00.00.0- Net exports-1.6-1.6-1.1-1.1-1.0-0.9-0.8-0.7Output gap1-5.3-5.1-3.6-3.7-2.1-2.5-1.10.2Employment (% change)-1.8-1.80.21.10.70.90.60.5Unemployment rate (%)5.05.05.24.84.84.03.53.2Labour productivity (% change)-2.1-2.14.93.94.13.84.44.4HICP inflation (%)2.32.32.92.62.72.92.62.5GDP deflator (% change)3.83.83.23.22.73.02.92.8Comp. of employees (per head, % change)7.37.35.85.06.16.16.76.5Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-3.4-3.4-3.2-2.6-3.0-1.8-1.4-0.8202020212022Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020232024COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -2.20.5n.a.-0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other -0.4-0.2n.a.-0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.5-0.4n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.70.3n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current -0.60.8n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-3.61.20.70.30.60.70.5Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-2.91.30.70.40.71.00.8Change in the structural balance-2.80.70.80.51.41.41.1Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

184 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPRevenue33.133.033.333.233.834.134.31.2of which:- Taxes on production and imports10.410.310.410.210.410.410.50.1- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.4.74.74.64.74.74.74.80.1- Social contributions12.011.911.611.911.711.811.9-0.1- Other (residual)6.06.16.76.47.07.27.11.1RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.10.10.60.61.21.2n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0n.a.Expenditure42.441.141.340.340.138.637.2-5.2of which:- Primary expenditure40.939.339.838.438.637.135.8-5.1of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption18.117.016.916.216.015.114.4-3.7Compensation of employees12.111.311.210.710.59.79.1-3.0Intermediate consumption5.95.65.65.55.55.45.3-0.6Social payments13.513.513.613.213.212.712.3-1.2Subsidies1.00.50.50.30.40.40.4-0.6Gross fixed capital formation4.65.05.05.25.25.35.30.7Other (residual)3.83.33.83.63.93.73.4-0.4- Interest expenditure1.41.81.51.91.51.51.40.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.10.10.60.61.21.2n.a.General government balance (GGB)-9.2-8.0-8.0-7.1-6.2-4.4-2.96.3Primary balance-7.8-6.3-6.5-5.2-4.7-2.9-1.56.3GGB excl. one-offs-9.2-8.0-8.0-7.1-6.2-4.4-2.96.3Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)16.93.13.64.22.72.43.3-13.8Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)12.64.7n.a.6.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)14.22.44.53.72.32.63.4-10.9Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)9.34.2n.a.6.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)17.56.96.96.36.35.95.6-1.9Other indicatorsOutput gap2-5.3-3.6-3.7-2.1-2.5-1.10.25.3Cyclically-adjusted balance2-7.5-6.9-6.8-6.4-5.4-4.0-3.04.6One-offs0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-7.5-6.9-6.8-6.4-5.4-4.0-3.04.6Structural primary balance3-6.1-5.1-5.3-4.5-3.9-2.5-1.64.6Notes:3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

185 

Average202320242015-2019COMCPCOMCPCPCPGross debt ratio136.147.349.750.852.752.953.352.4Change in the ratio-0.812.02.53.53.02.10.4-0.9Contributions2:1. Primary balance1.37.86.36.55.24.72.91.52. “Snow-ball” effect-1.81.5-1.8-2.1-1.6-2.2-2.4-2.4Of which:Interest expenditure1.31.41.81.51.91.51.51.4Growth effect-1.61.4-2.2-2.2-2.2-2.3-2.4-2.4Inflation effect-1.5-1.3-1.4-1.4-1.2-1.4-1.4-1.43. Stock-flow adjustment-0.22.6-1.9-0.8-0.6-0.40.00.1Notes:Source:20212022(% of GDP)20201 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP), Comission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

186 

Time horizonShort termMedium term4.8HIGH risk1.8MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]4.9MEDIUM risk1.7LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. MEDIUM riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]86.456.4Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.4HIGH riskHIGH riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]HIGH risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

187 

2020202120222023Bonuses granted for payment of corporation tax and income tax on micro-enterprises at due date, exemption from the specific taxD.5:Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.20200.1-0.1Active measures:allowances granted during the temporary suspension of the individual employment contract on the employer’s initiative, allowances granted to other professionals, as well as for persons who have concluded individual employment agreements that interrupt work as a result of the effects of SARS-CoV-2, the provision of employers for the payment of part of the gross wage of the employees kept at work (41.5 %), allowances granted to parents for the supervision of children during the temporary closure of educational establishments, allowances granted during the temporary reduction of work for professionals as well as for persons on the basis of individual employment agreementsD.3:Subsidies20200.8-0.5-0.2Risk incentiveD.1:Compensation of employees20200.00.00.0Wage increases awarded in the public administration during the pandemicD.1:Compensation of employees20200.10.0-0.1Expenditure on medicines, sanitary materials, reagents and other products necessary for the diagnosis and treatment of patients infected with the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2P.2:Intermediate consumption20200.4-0.2-0.1Procurement of medical emergency stocksP.2:Intermediate consumption20200.100Purchase of medical equipment, mobile hospitals and other capital expenditure outside medical emergency stocksP.51:Gross fixed capital formation20200.100Information technology equipment — mobile IT and tablets with access to the internet for studentsP.51:Gross fixed capital formation2020000National programme for the purchase of anti-COVID-19 vaccine and costs for the organisation and operation of vaccination centresP.2:Intermediate consumption202000.1-0.1State aid scheme in the form of a grant aimed at granting State guarantee facilities for loans granted to small and medium-sized enterprises and small mid-market capitals by credit institutionsD.3:Subsidies202000.1-0.1The Investment Grants programme provides non-repayable external financial support under the Competitiveness Operational Programme 2014-2020 in the context of the COVID-19 crisis, whose activity has been affected by the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.D.3:Subsidies20200.10.3-0.4GEO nr.224/2020 on measures to provide financial support to tourism enterprises, accommodation facilities, restaurants and tourism agencies affected in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as on fiscal measures (commitment appropriations)D.3:Subsidies20210.2-0.2Provisions related to guarantees issued in 2020 for Covid measures (mainly related to SME Invest Romania)D99p — Other capital transfers31.12.202001.5-0.1-1.3Increase the manufactured level in order to comply with the provisions of Art. 10 (2) of Council Directive 2011/64/EU on the structure and rates of excise duty applied on manufacturing.D.2 — Taxes on production and imports20200.1Employees that have working part time to pay social contributions at the level fo the income.D.61 — Social contributions2020-0.1Updating the excise duties for energy productsD.2 — Taxes on production and imports2020-0.3Granting of bonuses for the payments in advance by 25.04.2020, representation CIT for the first quarter of 2020 (GEO 33/2020) — COVID-19 revenue measureD.5 — Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.2020-0.1Elimination of the tax on part of the bank assets introduced last yearD.5 — Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.2020-0.1-0.51.1-0.1-1.31 Measures planned to be financed by grants below RRF are excluded.2 The temporary measures concern those discretionary measures which have no budgetary impact after 2022, corresponding to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon.By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1 % of GDP or more until at least 2023 shall be considered permanent measures.Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Total 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

188 

Date of adoption 30.09.202030.03.202022.07.202020.12.201719.08.202019.08.202031.07.202006.08.201628.04.201606.08.201610.08.201803.06.200915.10.201421.06.2018* ceiling 2020 for guarantee programmes** Excess on 31.12.2020 — Preliminary dataSubtotal 0.20.3Total2.71.7Government Emergency Ordinance No 50/2018 on measures for the implementation of the “investis in tine” programme0.20.100000.1Guarantees facilitating the absorption of European funds (European Funds Guarantee Place) granted by EximBank on behalf of and for the account of the State (market conditions) for loans not exceeding RON 1,5 million per client/customer group00Government Emergency Order No 60/2009 on implementing measures for the Casa Nouă programmeMeasuresGuarantees granted by EximBank, on behalf of and on behalf of the State, to support SMEs with total turnover above EUR 20 million in 2019 and to large companies in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic.The scheme became operational since 07.10.2020Government Emergency Ordinance No 37/2020, Programme for granting facilities for loans granted by credit institutions and non-bank financial institutions to certain categories of borrowers.The main objective of the Programme is to suspend at the request of the borrower the outstanding loan instalments, representing capital rates, interest and fees, granted to borrowers by creditors up to 9 months but no longer than 15 March 2021, to borrowers whose revenues have been directly or indirectly affected by the severe situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.0.020.0101.11.40.10.01Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)*0.20.141.90.010.030.030.22.50.2Estimated  take-up at 31.12.2020 (% of GDP)**0.020.02In response to COVID-19OthersGovernment Emergency Ordinance No 118/2020, Support Programme for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises — SMEs renting out the equipment and machinery programme.The objective of the programme is to support companies’ access to finance for their activity, in particular those that need to transfer technology into production processes, but also to ensure the necessary financial flows in the context of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.Government Emergency Order No 110/2017, Support Programme for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises — SME invests ROMANIA, updated in 2020 in the context of the Covid pandemic.The objective is to provide guarantee facilities by the State for loans granted to small and medium-sized enterprises, hereinafter referred to as beneficiaries, by credit institutions.The maximum duration of funding is 72 months for investment loans and 36 months for working capital loans/credit lines.Working fund appropriations/credit lines may be extended by a maximum of 36 months and will be reimbursed in the last year of extension under the conditions laid down in the implementing rules for this emergency ordinance.Guarantee granted to the National Company for Air Transport — Tarom SA to compensate for the economic losses incurred in the context of the COVID19 pandemic, in accordance with Government Emergency Order No 139/2020Guarantee granted to Blue-Air AVIATION SA to compensate for economic losses incurred in the context of the COVID19 pandemic, in accordance with Government Emergency Order No 139/2020Guarantee linked to the SURE instrument, GD 594/2020Subtotal     Guarantees given by EximBank on behalf of and on behalf of the State (on market terms) for bank loans Note:No annual budget is allocated.Guarantees shall be issued within the exposure limit of the guarantee fund provided for in Article 10 (a) of Law No nr.96/2000, republished.Guarantees for SMEs (“SME Guarantee Place”) granted by EximBank on behalf of and for the account of the State (on market terms) for loans not exceeding RON 1,5 million per client/customer groupn.a.0.01Counter-guarantees granted by EximBank on behalf of and on behalf of the State (market conditions) for the Bank’s LGs Note:No annual budget is allocated.Guarantees shall be issued within the exposure limit of the guarantee fund provided for in Article 10 (a) of Law No nr.96/2000, republished.n.a.Government Emergency Ordinance No 66/2014, Programme to support the acquisition by natural persons of new vehicles 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

189 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections0.10.61.21.20.90.9Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU0000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0.10.61.21.20.90.9Capital transfers D.9000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE0.10.61.21.20.90.92020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue000000Other costs with impact on revenue000000Financial transactions000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP) 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

190 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EU0000.700Repayments of RRF LOANS to EU0000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g000000Capital transfers D.900002.32.5TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00002.32.52020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue000000Other costs with impact on revenue000000Financial transactions000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
24. SLOVENIA 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

191 

2023202420252026COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-5.5-5.54.94.65.14.43.33.02.52.5Private consumption (% change)-9.7-9.74.44.05.64.72.92.31.71.7Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-4.1-4.17.29.09.58.06.56.56.05.0Exports of goods and services (% change)-8.7-8.79.58.67.57.35.54.94.13.9Imports of goods and services (% change)-10.2-10.29.88.88.38.16.15.44.64.2Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-5.6-6.04.13.94.94.23.22.92.52.3- Change in inventories-0.4-0.40.0-0.30.00.00.00.00.00.0- Net exports0.40.40.80.70.20.10.20.10.00.2Output gap1-3.4-3.4-1.6-1.60.0-0.20.20.30.1-0.2Employment (% change)-1.0-1.00.90.82.01.51.51.20.90.8Unemployment rate (%)5.05.05.05.04.84.84.54.24.03.9Labour productivity (% change)-4.6-4.63.93.83.02.81.71.81.61.7HICP inflation (%)-0.3-0.10.80.81.71.21.72.12.01.9GDP deflator (% change)1.31.31.20.11.31.51.82.12.02.0Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.32.32.02.91.41.82.53.23.33.3Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)7.07.04.0n.a.2.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020212022202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -0.1-3.6n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other 0.0-0.5n.a.-0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments-0.1-1.4n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.1-0.1n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current -0.1-1.6n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-5.5-1.1-0.72.42.01.81.2Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-5.60.31.62.32.20.60.2Change in the structural balance-5.0-1.0-1.03.02.31.70.9Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

192 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue43.643.043.543.043.142.542.0-1.6of which:- Taxes on production and imports12.912.812.812.912.612.412.2-0.7- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.7.47.37.37.37.37.67.60.2- Social contributions17.416.816.916.416.616.416.3-1.1- Other (residual)6.06.26.56.46.66.15.9-0.1RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.20.60.61.20.70.2n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0n.a.Expenditure52.051.552.147.748.846.444.8-7.2of which:- Primary expenditure50.350.050.646.447.545.243.6-6.7of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption19.318.919.118.118.417.516.8-2.5Compensation of employees12.712.512.611.912.211.611.2-1.5Intermediate consumption6.66.46.56.26.35.85.6-1.0Social payments19.720.020.218.619.118.618.2-1.5Subsidies3.91.82.10.71.01.00.9-3.0Gross fixed capital formation4.25.86.25.86.25.65.21.0Other (residual)3.33.53.03.12.72.52.4-0.9- Interest expenditure1.61.51.51.31.31.21.2-0.4Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.20.60.61.20.80.2n.a.General government balance (GGB)-8.4-8.5-8.6-4.7-5.7-3.8-2.85.6Primary balance-6.8-7.0-7.1-3.4-4.3-2.6-1.65.2GGB excl. one-offs-8.3-8.5-8.5-4.7-5.6-3.7-2.75.6Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)16.04.72.3-2.1-2.40.92.6-11.1Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)3.511.0n.a.3.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)17.41.3-2.1-2.7-3.11.93.1-11.7Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)3.77.8n.a.3.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)13.33.53.53.73.74.04.20.9Other indicatorsOutput gap2-3.4-1.6-1.60.0-0.20.20.33.7Cyclically-adjusted balance2-6.8-7.7-7.9-4.7-5.6-3.9-3.03.9One-offs-0.10.0-0.10.0-0.1-0.1-0.10.0Structural balance3-6.7-7.7-7.8-4.7-5.5-3.8-2.93.9Structural primary balance3-5.1-6.2-6.3-3.4-4.2-2.6-1.73.4Notes:20212022(% of GDP)1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

193 

Average202320242015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio174.280.879.080.476.779.679.078.0Change in the ratio-2.915.2-1.9-0.4-2.2-0.8-0.6-1.0Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.86.87.07.13.44.32.61.62. “Snow-ball” effect-1.24.6-3.1-2.1-3.4-3.1-2.7-2.6Of which:Interest expenditure2.51.61.51.51.31.31.21.2Growth effect-2.63.8-3.7-3.6-3.8-3.3-2.5-2.3Inflation effect-1.1-0.9-0.9-0.1-0.9-1.2-1.4-1.53. Stock-flow adjustment0.13.9-5.7-5.4-2.2-1.9-0.50.0Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations.20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

194 

Time horizonShort termMedium term2.1MEDIUM risk0.0MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]6.0HIGH risk4.1MEDIUM risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. MEDIUM riskMEDIUM risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]70.864.7Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.4MEDIUM riskHIGH riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

195 

2020202120222023Allowances and supplements for special working conditions for public sector employees, concessionaires, private institutionsD.102-04-20200.7-0.02-0.5-0.04Vouchers for citizens to be spent in tourism facilities in SloveniaD.29+D.4+D.5+D.7+P.52+P.53+K.2+D.829-05-20200.3-0.1-0.20Compensation to the providers of health care loss due to reduced activityD.29+D.4+D.5+D.7+P.52+P.53+K.2+D.829-05-20200.2-0.200Financing private kindergartens, coverage restricted range of student dormitory services, compensation of employeesD.29+D.4+D.5+D.7+P.52+P.53+K.2+D.802-04-20200.1-0.0500Other measuresD.29+D.4+D.5+D.7+P.52+P.53+K.2+D.8Adopted (various dates)0.040.02-0.10Humanitarian aid / donations / vaccinesD.29+D.4+D.5+D.7+P.52+P.53+K.2+D.8Adopted (various dates)0.010-0.010Exemption from payment of contributions for pension and disability insurance for working employeesD.302-04-20200.9-0.900Wage compensations for employees waiting at homeD.302-04-20200.9-0.6-0.20Coverage of fix costsD.325-11-20200.30.3-0.50Payment of social contributions for employees waiting at homeD.302-04-20200.3-0.300Stimulation of business and development of tourismD.325-11-20200.1-0.1-0.010Short time work scheme (subsidised working time)D.329-05-20200.1-0.04-0.030Wage compensations for employees in quarantine (Art.2. ZIUPPP)D.320-03-20200.040.1-0.10Coverage of costs of sick leave pay for all workers during the epidemic from the first day onwards D.302-04-20200.04-0.02-0.020Compensation to the providers of health care loss due to reduced activity - concessionairesD.329-05-20200.03-0.0300Finance support for corporations by performing COVID testsD.329-12-202000.01-0.010Reimbursement of crisis salary bonus/supplementD.302-04-202000.1-0.10Exemption from payment of chargers for the use of water,  water right concessions and reduced tax base for income from water rightsD.502-04-20200.02-0.0100Single payment solidarity assistance for pensionersD.62+D.63+D.621+D.624+D.63102-04-20200.3-0.300Special assistance in the form of a monthly basic income for self-employed workers, farmers etc. (5th package)D.62+D.63+D.621+D.624+D.63115-10-20200.30.2-0.40Special assistance in the form of a monthly basic income for self-employed workers, farmers etc.D.62+D.63+D.621+D.624+D.63102-04-20200.2-0.200Exemption from payment of social contributions for self-employed workers, farmers etc.D.62+D.63+D.621+D.624+D.63102-04-20200.1-0.100Coverage of income loss, reimbursement of maintenance costs, direct co-financing of measures in the field of social protection D.62+D.63+D.621+D.624+D.63115-10-20200.1-0.100Single payment solidarity assistance for vulnerable groups, students, allowance to large families, support to long-term care providers (costs and human resources), temporary (financial) compensationD.62+D.63+D.621+D.624+D.63102-04-20200.10.01-0.10Exemption from parental payment for kindergartens D.62+D.63+D.621+D.624+D.63102-04-20200.020-0.020Influenza vaccination and additional funds for Health Insurance Institute of SloveniaD.62+D.63+D.621+D.624+D.63115-10-20200.010.02-0.030Protective equipment, tests, co-financing of protection and rescue for local communities and co-financing of stocks (Agency for Commodity Reserves)P.2Adopted (various dates)0.2-0.20.03-0.062Additional health programs, implementation of microbiological tests and support to performing public service to National Institute for Health P.215-10-20200.020.01-0.030Medical protective equipment, funds intended to increase health capacityP.5129-05-20200.03-0.0300Investments, protective equipment, financing of the Information and communication technology, epidemic management, cooperation in global response to COVID-19P.51Adopted (various dates)0.02-0.01005.2-2.3-2.4-0.11 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. Non-temporary measures2                  Subtotal                    Total2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)                 Subtotal      
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

196 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Guarantee Act of the Republic of Slovenia in the European Instrument for Temporary Support for Mitigation of Unemployment Risks in Emergencies (SURE) after the outbreak of COVID-19 (ZPEIPUTB) 0.2 0.10.20.1Act on providing additional liquidity to the economy to mitigate the consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic (ZDLGPE)28-04-20204.30.10.1 Act on Intervention Measures to Contain the COVID-19 Epidemic and Mitigate Its Consequences for Citizens and the Economy (ZIUZEOP) 02/04/2020 0.4 0.102-04-20200.040.1Subtotal     4.90.4Guarantee Act of the Republic of Slovenia for liabilities of the company 2TDK doo from loans and debt securities leased or issued to finance the construction of the second track of the Divača – Koper railway line and for liabilities of DARS dd from loans and debt securities leased or issued for financing construction of part of the 3rd development axis (ZPOD2TDK)18-12-20191.70.2Subtotal 1.70.2Total6.60.6In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

197 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EUn.a.00.10.20.30.40.2Repayments of RRF LOANS to EUn.a.00.10.20.30.40.22020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.30000.020.040.10.05Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000.020.040.10.05Gross fixed capital formation P.51g000.070.20.30.40.2Capital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE000.070.20.30.40.22020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsCash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

198 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections00.61.20.70.20.30.3Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU00.81.10.70.20.30.32020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.100.020.030.020.010.010.01Intermediate consumption P.200.10.20.10.00.10.0Social payments D.62+D.6320000000Interest expenditure D.410000000Subsidies, payable D.300.20.30.20.10.10.1Current transfers D.70000000TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE00.30.60.40.10.20.1Gross fixed capital formation P.51g00.30.60.40.10.20.2Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00.30.60.40.10.20.22020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsRevenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
25. SLOVAKIA 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

199 

20232024COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-4.8-4.84.83.35.26.32.80.3Private consumption (% change)-1.0-1.10.8-3.35.26.82.72.4Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-12.0-11.98.60.812.511.98.4-10.9Exports of goods and services (% change)-7.5-7.212.210.65.34.84.23.6Imports of goods and services (% change)-8.3-8.510.98.85.65.34.12.0Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-3.1-3.62.7-1.15.46.23.9-1.2- Change in inventories-2.4-2.80.82.50.00.4-1.4-0.3- Net exports0.71.01.32.0-0.2-0.30.31.7Output gap1-3.9-3.5-1.4-2.10.81.41.5-0.1Employment (% change)-1.9-1.9-0.6-0.40.80.91.20.3Unemployment rate (%)6.76.77.47.16.66.55.44.7Labour productivity (% change)-2.9-3.45.43.74.45.31.60.0HICP inflation (%)2.02.01.51.11.92.22.52.3GDP deflator (% change)2.42.41.51.42.32.12.82.6Comp. of employees (per head, % change)3.31.94.05.04.75.05.54.6Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)-1.60.0-0.40.5-0.60.50.61.0Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020212022202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   -0.8-1.9n.a.0.9n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other -0.1-0.2n.a.-0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.4-0.1n.a.0.7n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure-0.30.6n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current -0.9-2.2n.a.1.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-2.4-1.50.41.1-0.30.0-0.1Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-2.7-1.2-1.91.50.81.01.4Change in the structural balance-2.4-1.3-0.81.60.01.00.9Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

200 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue41.841.841.641.640.541.540.0-1.8of which:- Taxes on production and imports12.211.811.711.711.611.611.3-0.9- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.6.87.16.97.16.86.96.90.1- Social contributions15.915.716.115.415.415.315.4-0.5- Other (residual)7.07.26.97.56.77.76.4-0.6RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.2n.a.1.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Expenditure48.048.251.645.745.745.643.9-4.1of which:- Primary expenditure46.747.150.644.644.844.742.8-3.9of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption17.517.019.216.617.117.316.8-0.7Compensation of employees11.511.311.311.110.310.010.0-1.5Intermediate consumption6.15.87.95.56.77.36.90.8Social payments21.321.822.920.020.119.619.7-1.6Subsidies1.41.51.71.31.31.41.2-0.2Gross fixed capital formation3.53.83.83.73.53.73.1-0.4Other (residual)3.12.93.03.02.72.72.1-1.0- Interest expenditure1.21.21.01.10.90.91.1-0.1Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.20.21.01.11.31.31.3General government balance (GGB)-6.2-6.5-9.9-4.1-5.1-4.1-3.82.4Primary balance-4.9-5.3-8.9-3.0-4.2-3.2-2.82.1GGB excl. one-offs-6.2-6.5-6.4-4.1-5.1-4.1-3.82.4Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)10.26.89.00.12.82.40.6-5.2Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)6.47.9n.a.0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)10.58.413.41.4-4.81.71.0-10.6Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)6.99.5n.a.1.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)14.63.83.84.64.64.64.60.0Other indicatorsOutput gap2-3.9-1.4-2.10.81.41.5-0.13.4Cyclically-adjusted balance2-4.7-6.0-9.1-4.4-5.6-4.7-3.81.1One-offs0.00.0-3.50.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-4.7-6.0-5.6-4.4-5.6-4.7-3.81.1Structural primary balance3-3.4-4.8-4.6-3.3-4.7-3.8-2.70.9Notes:20212022(% of GDP)1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

201 

Average202320242015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio150.760.659.564.159.065.564.665.8Change in the ratio-1.112.3-1.13.5-0.51.4-0.91.2Contributions2:1. Primary balance0.24.95.38.93.04.23.22.82. “Snow-ball” effect-0.62.7-2.4-1.7-3.1-4.0-2.5-0.8Of which:Interest expenditure1.51.21.21.01.10.90.91.1Growth effect-1.62.4-2.7-1.9-2.9-3.7-1.7-0.2Inflation effect-0.5-0.9-0.9-0.8-1.3-1.2-1.7-1.63. Stock-flow adjustment-0.74.7-4.0-3.6-0.31.3-1.5-0.8Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations.20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

202 

Time horizonShort termMedium term1.9MEDIUM risk0.6MEDIUM riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]8.2HIGH risk6.4HIGH risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]58.260.3Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioHIGH riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.5MEDIUM riskHIGH riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]MEDIUM risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

203 

20202021202220231 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Totaln.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

204 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)anti-Covid19 guarantees (cumulative 2020 and 2021)20201.6Subtotal     01.6EFSF and ESM9.4international financial institutions1.4state-owned financial institutions0.3Subtotal 10.70.3Total10.71.9In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

205 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projectionsCash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

206 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EURepayments of RRF LOANS to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
26. FINLAND 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

207 

20232024COMSPCOMSPCOMSPSPSPReal GDP (% change)-2.8-2.82.72.62.82.51.51.4Private consumption (% change)-4.9-4.93.43.53.62.91.61.6Gross fixed capital formation (% change)-3.1-3.12.1-0.23.43.52.82.1Exports of goods and services (% change)-6.6-6.65.14.67.04.73.72.2Imports of goods and services (% change)-6.6-6.65.94.15.83.83.12.2Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-2.8-2.83.02.32.32.31.11.3- Change in inventories0.10.00.00.10.0-0.20.10.0- Net exports0.00.0-0.30.20.40.40.20.1Output gap1-3.6-3.5-2.3-2.1-1.0-0.9-0.40.1Employment (% change)-1.5-1.50.90.11.11.20.60.4Unemployment rate (%)7.87.87.67.87.27.26.96.7Labour productivity (% change)-1.3-1.31.82.51.61.30.90.9HICP inflation (%)0.40.41.21.51.21.71.91.8GDP deflator (% change)1.71.71.71.71.71.71.91.8Comp. of employees (per head, % change)-0.1-0.12.14.42.02.62.52.4Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)0.40.20.10.40.60.60.60.6202020212022Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020232024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   1.2-1.2n.a.0.5n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other 0.0-0.2n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.0-0.1n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.10.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current 1.2-0.8n.a.0.4n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-1.60.20.11.91.30.50.8Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-1.70.40.11.81.20.40.8Change in the structural balance-2.10.1-0.11.71.10.50.1Note:Source:1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP)Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

208 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMSPCOMSPSPSPSPRevenue51.251.751.651.551.151.050.7-0.5of which:- Taxes on production and imports13.813.913.914.013.613.413.2-0.6- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.15.915.715.815.415.715.615.6-0.3- Social contributions11.612.012.211.812.012.012.00.4- Other (residual)9.910.19.710.39.810.09.90.0RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.00.20.10.30.20.20.20.2Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0n.a.Expenditure56.756.356.353.654.053.152.3-4.4of which:- Primary expenditure56.055.855.853.253.652.852.0-4.0of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption24.124.724.223.923.723.323.0-1.1Compensation of employees12.812.9n.a.12.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Intermediate consumption11.311.8n.a.11.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Social payments22.621.522.021.221.521.321.2-1.4Subsidies1.81.71.71.11.11.11.1-0.7Gross fixed capital formation4.64.64.64.34.44.24.1-0.5Other (residual)3.03.23.42.72.92.82.7-0.3- Interest expenditure0.70.50.50.40.40.30.3-0.4Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.20.10.30.40.20.20.2General government balance (GGB)-5.4-4.6-4.7-2.1-2.9-2.1-1.73.7Primary balance-4.8-4.1-4.2-1.7-2.5-1.8-1.43.4GGB excl. one-offs-5.4-4.6-4.7-2.1-2.9-2.1-1.73.7Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)5.92.32.7-0.90.42.01.4-4.0Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)0.54.9n.a.1.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.aNationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)6.21.31.7-0.11.32.11.5-4.0Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)0.34.8n.a.2.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)12.82.92.93.03.03.03.10.3Other indicatorsOutput gap2-3.6-2.3-2.1-1.0-0.9-0.40.13.6Cyclically-adjusted balance2-3.4-3.3-3.5-1.5-2.4-1.9-1.81.6One-offs0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-3.4-3.3-3.5-1.5-2.4-1.9-1.81.6Structural primary balance3-2.7-2.7-3.0-1.1-2.0-1.6-1.51.3Notes:3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Stability Programme (SP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

209 

Average202320242015-2019COMSPCOMSPSPSPGross debt ratio161.469.271.071.670.172.473.974.7Change in the ratio-0.19.71.82.4-0.90.81.50.8Contributions2:1. Primary balance0.34.84.14.21.72.51.81.42. “Snow-ball” effect-0.81.4-2.5-2.4-2.6-2.5-2.1-2.0Of which:Interest expenditure1.00.70.50.50.40.40.30.3Growth effect-1.11.7-1.8-1.7-1.9-1.7-1.1-1.0Inflation effect-0.7-1.0-1.1-1.2-1.2-1.1-1.3-1.33. Stock-flow adjustment0.43.60.30.60.00.81.81.4Notes:Source:20212022(% of GDP)20201 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Stability Programme (SP), Comission calculations. 
 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

210 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-0.1LOW risk-1.2LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]3.9MEDIUM risk3.0MEDIUM risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. MEDIUM riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]62.863.9Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioHIGH riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.5LOW riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

211 

2020202120222023Support for enterprises: grants provided for companies by Business Finland and ELY Centres, support for solvency of sole entrepreneurs, support for catering entrepreneurs, support for agricultural and natural resource economy enterprises, general cost support for companies, estimated increase in Finnvera’s loss compensation, support for public transportation, capital injection fo Finavia, hybrid loan to FinnairD.3920201.0-0.4-0.50Extension of unemployment security: eliminating the waiting period, speeding up the layoff procedure, making entrepreneurs eligible for unemployment security, extending the payment period of startup grants, streamlining unemployment benefit payments, epidemic compensationD.6220200.2-0.2-0.050Extension of social benefits: support for individuals arriving from other countries and parents of small children, temporary increase in social assistanceD.6220200.1-0.100Children and young people, and wellbeing of the elderly: free leisure activities, early childhood education and care, basic education and general upper secondary education, guidance counselling and youth work, student health care, ensuring properly functioning services for the elderlyD.120200.1-0.1-0.010Investment projects: basic transport infrastructure maintenance, developing the transport network, renovation construction, and public transport support. The sum for the year  2022 is based on a technical assumption concerning the timing of the projects.  P.51g20200.1-0.1-0.010R&D&I, competence and wellbeing: additional starting places for higher education and developing continuous learning, research appropriations for the Academy of Finland, public employment and business services and developing the service structure.D.120200.1-0.1-0.010Health and social services resources and equipment purchases, and covid-19 researchP.220200.50.3-0.70Other expenditure increases arising from the coronavirus situationD.3920200.4-0.3-0.0302.6-1.0-1.30Lowering of private-sector pension contributions for the period 1 May - 31 December 2020. Funding will come from the EMU buffer fund of the employment pension scheme. The buffer fund will be augmented again by raising the pension contributions for the period 2022-2025.D.612020-0.40.40.10.1-0.40.40.10.1-3.01.4-0.030.11 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    Total 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

212 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)Increase in Finnvera's domestic guarantee limit to 12 billion euros20205.10.7Guarantee to Finnair's loan from employment pension institutions20200.30.2Guarantee to shipping companies to secure vital supplies20200.30.02Guarantee to secure financing of Employment Fund20200.40European Commision's SURE program20200.20.2EIB's COVID19-guarantee fund20200.20.2Subtotal     6.31.3Other central government guarantees24.8Subtotal 24.8Total26.1In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

213 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projections00.10.20.20.20.10Cash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU00.10.10.20.20.10.12020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE00.10.20.20.20.10.0Gross fixed capital formation P.51g000.10000Capital transfers D.9000.10000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE000.10.10002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a. 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

214 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EU0000000Repayments of RRF LOANS to EU00000002020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE0000000Gross fixed capital formation P.51g0000000Capital transfers D.90000000TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE00000002020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenue0000000Other costs with impact on revenue0000000Financial transactions0000000Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
27. SWEDEN 

Table 1: Macroeconomic developments and forecasts 

Table 2a: Main indicators for fiscal surveillance 

215 

20232024COMCPCOMCPCOMCPCPCPReal GDP (% change)-2.8-2.84.43.23.33.81.91.6Private consumption (% change)-4.7-4.73.83.35.56.22.81.9Gross fixed capital formation (% change)0.60.62.02.63.63.42.62.2Exports of goods and services (% change)-5.2-5.27.86.04.44.73.32.8Imports of goods and services (% change)-5.8-5.86.86.23.74.63.22.6Contributions to real GDP growth:- Final domestic demand-2.1-2.13.52.62.83.51.71.4- Change in inventories-0.8-0.80.20.30.00.00.00.0- Net exports0.00.00.70.20.50.20.20.2Output gap1-4.8-4.4-2.5-2.8-1.4-0.8-0.5-0.5Employment (% change)-1.3-1.30.50.31.31.91.70.6Unemployment rate (%)8.38.38.28.77.57.97.07.0Labour productivity (% change)-1.5-1.83.93.12.01.80.11.0HICP inflation (%)0.70.71.81.51.11.21.61.9GDP deflator (% change)1.41.41.62.01.81.71.51.8Comp. of employees (per head, % change)2.32.32.23.12.52.62.02.5Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world (% of GDP)5.45.46.04.76.74.34.34.3Commission2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP).Note:1In % of potential GDP, with potential GDP growth recalculated by Commission services on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.Source:202020212022202020232024COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPRelevant indicators for fiscal guidance at this stageFiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures)1   1.4-2.2n.a.-0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.of which contribution from:Change in expenditure financed by RRF grants and other 0.0-0.1n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in nationally financed investments0.00.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in other capital expenditure0.20.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in net nationally financed primary current 1.3-2.1n.a.-0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Fiscal stance (including EU-financed expenditure)1-1.9-1.3n.a.1.8n.a.n.a.n.a.Stability and Growth Pact indicatorsExpenditure benchmark-2.0-1.3n.a.1.9n.a.n.a.n.a.Change in the structural balance-1.1-1.4-2.32.12.41.40.5Note:Source:Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.1 A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy. For the definition of the fiscal impluse and fiscal adjustment indicators see the Box on p.3 of this Statistical Annex.20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 2b: General government budgetary position  

216 

202020232024Change: 2020-2024COMCOMCPCOMCPCPCPCPRevenue49.949.848.950.145.848.648.3-1.6of which:- Taxes on production and imports21.722.021.822.521.722.021.90.2- Current taxes on income, wealth, etc.18.218.117.418.217.317.517.4-0.8- Social contributions3.53.13.43.03.33.43.3-0.2- Other (residual)6.56.66.36.43.55.75.7-0.8RRF grants as included in the revenue projections0.1n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Revenue reductions financed by RRF grants0.00.0n.a.0.0n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Expenditure52.953.153.450.649.448.147.3-5.6of which:- Primary expenditure52.652.853.150.449.147.847.0-5.6of which:Compensation of employees+Intermediate consumption21.221.821.120.420.419.919.7-1.5Compensation of employees13.112.613.112.412.712.412.2-0.9Intermediate consumption8.19.28.08.07.77.57.4-0.7Social payments16.716.016.316.215.515.014.8-1.9Subsidies2.82.83.32.41.61.51.5-1.3Gross fixed capital formation5.15.05.35.05.15.04.9-0.2Other (residual)6.87.37.26.46.56.26.1-0.7- Interest expenditure0.30.20.30.30.30.30.30.0Expenditure financed by RRF grants0.00.1n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.General government balance (GGB)-3.1-3.3-4.5-0.5-1.00.51.04.1Primary balance-2.8-3.0-4.2-0.3-0.70.81.34.1GGB excl. one-offs-3.1-3.3-4.5-0.5-1.00.51.04.1Expenditure aggreagate growth ratesNationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)7.36.38.20.1-4.40.91.5-5.1Nationally financed primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures, excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)0.68.4n.a.4.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.aNationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) growth rate (%)7.66.96.3-0.3-4.41.21.8-4.9Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and crisis-related temporary emergency measures) growth rate (%)0.68.8n.a.4.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.p.m. nominal 10-year average potential growth (%)13.53.83.83.93.93.93.90.4Other indicatorsOutput gap2-4.8-2.5-2.8-1.4-0.8-0.5-0.54.0Cyclically-adjusted balance2-0.4-1.9-2.80.2-0.60.81.31.7One-offs0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Structural balance3-0.4-1.9-2.80.2-0.60.81.31.7Structural primary balance3-0.1-1.6-2.50.5-0.31.11.61.7Notes:3 Structural (primary) balance refers to cyclically-adjusted (primary) balance excluding one-offsSource:Convergence Programme (CP); Commission 2021 spring forecasts (COM); Commission calculations.1 This estimate does not include the impact of the structural reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost economic potential growth.2 Output gap (in % of potential GDP) and cyclically-adjusted balance according to the programme as recalculated by Commission on the basis of the programme scenario using the commonly agreed methodology.20212022(% of GDP) 
 
 
 
Table 3a: General government debt developments 

217 

Average202320242015-2019COMCPCOMCPCPCPGross debt ratio140.139.940.839.939.437.033.731.4Change in the ratio-2.04.81.00.0-1.4-2.9-3.3-2.3Contributions2:1. Primary balance-1.22.83.04.20.30.7-0.8-1.32. “Snow-ball” effect-1.40.8-2.0-1.6-1.7-1.8-0.9-0.8Of which:Interest expenditure0.50.30.20.30.30.30.30.3Growth effect-1.01.0-1.7-1.2-1.3-1.4-0.7-0.5Inflation effect-0.9-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.63. Stock-flow adjustment0.71.20.0-2.50.0-1.8-1.6-0.2Notes:Source:1 End of period.2 The snow-ball effect captures the impact of interest expenditure on accumulated debt, as well as the impact of real GDP growth and inflation on the debt ratio (through the denominator). The stock-flow adjustment includes differences in cash and accrual accounting (including leads and lags in the disbursements in RRF grants), accumulation of financial assets and valuation and other residual effects. Commission 2021 spring forecast (COM); Convergence Programme (CP), Comission calculations.20212022(% of GDP)2020 
 
 
 
Table 3b: Debt sustainability analysis and sustainability indicators 

218 

Time horizonShort termMedium term-4.3LOW risk-6.7LOW riskBaseline scenarioStochastic projectionsLong term [5]2.0MEDIUM risk0.7LOW risk[5] The long-term risk classification is based on both the S2 indicator and the results of the debt sustainability analysis.[6]TheS2indicatorshowstheupfrontandpermanentfiscaladjustmentrequiredtostabilisethedebt-to-GDPratioovertheinfinitehorizon. Below 2: low risk. Between 2 and 6: medium risk. Above 6: high risk.** For more information, see the 2020 Debt Sustainability Monitor.Long-term fiscal risk indicator (S2) [6]Sources: Commission services; 2021 stability or convergence programmes.[1] The S0 indicator informs the early detection of fiscal stress associated to fiscal risks within a one-year horizon.* [2]TheS1indicatormeasurestheeffortrequiredtobringthedebt-to-GDPratioto60%in15years.Itcorrespondstoacumulatedimprovementinthestructuralprimarybalanceover5yearscomparedwiththebaseline.Below0:lowrisk.Between0and2.5:mediumrisk. Above 2.5: high risk.*[3]ThedebtsustainabilityanalysisisperformedaroundtheCommission'sbaselinescenariototesttheresponsetodifferentshocks,including sensitivity tests and stochastic projections.* [4]TheCommissionscenarioassumesagradualreversaloftemporarypandemic-relatedmeasures(and‘financing’ofpermanentones).*Thestabilityorconvergenceprogrammescenarioassumesthatthebudgetaryplansintheprogrammesarefullyimplementedover the period covered by the programmes. LOW riskLOW risk(Per memo.) Baseline projected government debt-to-GDP in 2031 (%) [4]22.410.8Commission scenarioStability or convergence programme scenarioLOW riskShort-term fiscal risk indicator (S0) [1]0.3LOW riskMEDIUM riskMedium-term fiscal risk indicator (S1) [2]Debt sustainability analysis [3]LOW risk 
 
 
 
Table 4.1a: Discretionary measures adopted/announced according to the Programme1 

219 

2020202120222023Total current expenditure0-0.10.040.07Total capital expenditure0-0.0100Total current expenditure-0.2-0.010.20Total capital expenditure0000Total current expenditure-0.2-0.10.20Total capital expenditure0.00.00.00Total current expenditure-0.10.10.10Total capital expenditure0000Total current expenditure-0.1-0.80.90Total capital expenditure0000Total current expenditure-0.4-0.010.30.1Total capital expenditure0.000.020.01Total current expenditure-0.1-0.020.040.1Total capital expenditure0000Total current expenditure-0.1-0.10.10.1Total capital expenditure0000Total current expenditure-0.70.30.50Total capital expenditure0000Total current expenditure-0.30.10.30Total capital expenditure0000Total current expenditure-0.1-0.10.20Total capital expenditure0000Total current expenditure0-0.160.160Total capital expenditure0-0.010.010Lower employers’ social security contributions for young peopleTaxes on production and imports, D.2rMarch 2020-0.70.50.00.1Tax reduction to promote investmentTaxes on income, wealth, etc. from corporations, D5r bxSept 20200-0.10.10.02Tax reduction on labour income to address increased work-related costs due to the pandemic Taxes on income, wealth, etc. D5r bSept 20200-0.10.010.1Taxes on production and imports, D.2r0-0.0100.01Taxes on income, wealth, etc. D5r b0-0.10.10.1-3.1-0.73.10.6Total current expenditure-0.1-0.80.30.04Total capital expenditure-0.03-0.10.030.02Lower income tax (with partly permanent effect)Taxes on income, wealth, etc. D5r bSept 20200-0.1-0.03-0.1-0.2-1.00.3-0.1-3.2-1.73.40.61 Excluding those measures that are planned to be financed by grants under the RRF. 2 For the purpose of this table, temporary measures refer to those discretionary measures that have no budgetary impact beyond 2022, which corresponds to the end of the Commission spring 2021 forecast horizon. By contrast, those measures adopted or announced for 2020, 2021 or 2022 that continue to have a fiscal effect of 0.1% of GDP or greater until at least 2023 are considered as 'non-temporary' for the purpose of this table.   Non-temporary measures2MeasuresESA Code (Expenditure / Revenue component)Date of adoption Budgetary impact (% of GDP - change from previous year)Temporary measures2                 Subtotal                       Subtotal                    TotalSept 2020Strengthened culture and civil societyVaccinationOther Expenditure (with partly permanent effect)Other tax changesIncreased number of education and training placesGeneral government grants to municipalities and regionsHigher unemployment compensation levelsSept 2020March 2020June 2020June 2020April 2020Short-term layoffsSickness benefit and othersCare backlog and continued COVID-19 careCompensation for extended costs for health care and social servicesContinued testing and contact tracingDisease carrier's allowance and othersExtended reorientation support, and turnover-based support for sole tradersMarch 2020Sept 2020March 2020April 2020March 2020Sept 2020March 2020March 2020 
 
 
 
Table 4.1b: Stock of guarantees adopted/announced according to the Programme  

220 

MeasuresDate of adoption Maximum amount of contingent liabilities                     (% of GDP)Estimated  take-up          (% of GDP)State credit guarantees for Swedish airlines March 20200.0State guarantees for loans to companies April 2020 2.00.0Guarantees via the Swedish Export Credit Agency April 2020 1.01.1Guarantees to EU institutions (EIB and SURE) June 2020 0.40.2Subtotal     3.51.3Subtotal Total3.51.3In response to COVID-19Others 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2a: RRF – Grants 

221 

2020202120222023202420252026RRF GRANTS as included in the revenue projectionsCash disbursements of RRF GRANTS from EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Revenue from RRF grants (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF grants (% of GDP)n.a.n.a. 
 
 
 
 
Table 4.2b: RRF– Loans 

222 

2020202120222023202420252026Disbursements of RRF LOANS from EURepayments of RRF LOANS to EU2020202120222023202420252026Compensation of employees D.1Intermediate consumption P.2Social payments D.62+D.632Interest expenditure D.41Subsidies, payable D.3Current transfers D.7TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITUREGross fixed capital formation P.51gCapital transfers D.9TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE2020202120222023202420252026Reduction in tax revenueOther costs with impact on revenueFinancial transactionsn.a.Cash flow from RRF loans projected in the programme (% of GDP)Expenditure financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)Other costs financed by RRF loans (% of GDP)n.a.n.a.