REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE EMPLOYMENT COMMITTEE Report on the European instrument for Temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) following the COVID-19 outbreak pursuant to Article 14 of Council Regulation (EU) 2020/672 SURE: Taking Stock After Six Months
Date: 2021-03-22
Institutions: Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
Subjects: EU aid, EU financial instrument, coronavirus disease, economic consequence, emergency aid, employment aid, epidemic, fight against unemployment, self-employed person, social impact

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 22.3.2021  COM(2021) 148 final  REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE EMPLOYMENT COMMITTEE Report on the European instrument for Temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (SURE) following the COVID-19 outbreak pursuant to Article 14 of Council Regulation (EU) 2020/672       SURE: Taking Stock After Six Months   
 
 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

A novel instrument to respond to the socioeconomic impact of the pandemic   

This  report  is  the  first  bi-annual  report  on  the  European  instrument  for  temporary 
Support  to  mitigate  Unemployment  Risks  in  an  Emergency  (SURE).  It  presents  the 
operations and use of the instrument to date and reviews its socio-economic impacts. SURE is a 
crisis instrument, with a size of EUR 100 billion, created by the European Union (EU) to help 
Member States protect jobs and workers’ incomes in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.  

SURE is a strong expression of solidarity to protect jobs and economic activity in the Single 
Market. In order for SURE to become available, all Member States agreed to provide bilateral 
guarantees to the EU so that the Union could borrow from the markets to finance SURE loans.  

The Commission proposed the SURE Regulation on 2 April 2020, as part of the EU’s initial 
response to the pandemic. The SURE Regulation was adopted by the Council on 19 May 2020 
and Member States submitted their first formal requests in early August. However, the financial 
envelope of EUR 100 billion became available on 22 September 2020, after all Member States 
signed  the  guarantee  agreements.  The  Commission  speeded  up  the  implementation  of  the 
instrument by working closely with the Member States and preparing all the administrative and 
legal arrangements (e.g. the bilateral loan agreements) since the adoption of the Regulation. As a 
result,  the  first  disbursement  took  place  on  27  October,  only  five  weeks  after  the  financial 
envelope became available.   

The  EU  issued  social  bonds  for  the  first  time  to  finance  SURE  financial  assistance  to 
Member  States.  This  report  also  provides  the  relevant  reporting  under  Section  2.4  of  the  EU 
SURE Social Bond Framework, in particular, on the allocation and impact of SURE proceeds.  

A large take-up 

The  demand  from  Member  States  for  financial  assistance  under  SURE  has  been  strong. 
Since its introduction, over 90% of the total envelope of EUR 100 billion has been allocated by 
the  Council  –  based  on  Commission  proposals  –  to  18  Member  States.  Moreover,  on  26 
February,  the  Commission  proposed  to  also  provide  financial  assistance  to  Estonia.  The  three 
largest  amounts  of  financial  assistance  granted  were  to  Italy  (EUR  27.4  billion),  Spain  (EUR 
21.3  billion)  and  Poland  (EUR  11.2  billion).  The  amounts  initially  requested  were  reduced 
slightly  to  meet  the  concentration  limit  of  EUR  60  billion  for  any  of  the  three  largest 
beneficiaries  under  the  Regulation.  The  other  Member  States  were  granted  the  amount  they 
requested:  Belgium,  Portugal  and  Romania  were  granted  between  EUR  4  and  8  billion  each, 
while Greece, Ireland, Czechia, Slovenia and Croatia were granted between EUR 1 and 3 billion. 
The  remaining  Member  States  -  Slovakia,  Lithuania,  Bulgaria,  Hungary,  Cyprus,  Malta  and 
Latvia - were all granted under EUR 1 billion. 

The  first  four  bond  issuances  under  SURE  have  been  very  successful,  raising  EUR  53.5 
billion  from  October  2020  to  January  2021.  The  first  transaction  of  EUR  17  billion  was 
executed successfully on 20 October 2020, in two tranches. Five weeks later, almost 40 billion 

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was  raised  altogether  over  two  additional  transactions,  covering  over  half  of  the  requests  of 
Member  States  seeking  large  disbursements  in  2020.  The  fourth  transaction,  in  January  2021, 
raised a further EUR 14 billion. The issuances were significantly over-subscribed by investors, 
on average more than 10 times, resulting in favourable pricing terms, including negative yields 
on the bonds with maturities of 15 years or less.  

The use of SURE by beneficiary Member States 

Out of the 18 Member States that were granted SURE support, 15 Member States did so in 
order  to  help  finance  short-time  work  schemes.  Most  beneficiary  Member  States  have  also 
applied  for  support  to  finance  ‘measures  similar  to  short-time  work  schemes’,  of  which  14 
Member States are financing measures to support the self-employed. All measures put forward 
by the Member States were considered eligible for financial assistance. This was the result of an 
early  engagement  with  Member  States  to  plan  and  prepare  as  speedily  as  possible  the 
implementation of the instrument, including by clarifying its scope. In the majority of cases, the 
supported  short-time  work  schemes  are  new  schemes  set  up  in  response  to  the  COVID-19 
pandemic. Nine Member States also requested financial assistance under SURE for the financing 
of health-related expenditure directly related to the COVID-19 emergency.  

In  2020,  SURE  is  estimated  to  have  supported  between  25  and  30  million  people,  which 
accounts  for  one  quarter  of  total  employment  across  beneficiary  Member  States.  This 
covers approximately 21½ million employees and 5 million self-employed workers and should 
be compared with a total of 35 million people who benefitted from short-time work schemes in 
the EU. Based on the reporting by  Member States, it is estimated that between 1½ million and 
2½ million firms, or 12 – 16% of firms in beneficiary Member States, have been supported by 
SURE in 2020. However, this reporting is incomplete and uneven across Member States.  

By  the  end  of  2020,  80%  of  total  planned  public  expenditure  on  eligible  measures  had 
already taken place. The report presents the planned and actual use of the financial assistance 
granted under SURE, based on data reported by all but one beneficiary Member States. Updated 
reporting by Member States has shown some backloading of public expenditure. They spent less 
than  originally  expected  in  2020  and  planned  to  spend  more  in  2021  and  2022  than  initially 
reported in August 2020.  

Almost  all  Member  States  have  already  spent  or  plan  to  spend  the  total  amount  granted 
under SURE. Three Member States currently report lower planned public expenditure than the 
amount granted under SURE. These Member States have indicated that they have already taken 
or intend to take measures, if necessary, to use all of the financial assistance granted, including, 
in  some  cases,  extending  the  duration  of  measures  provided  for  in  the  respective  Council 
implementing decisions. In these Member States particularly, the absorption of funds would need 
to be monitored. 

A first assessment of the impact of SURE  

The increase in unemployment rates in 2020 across beneficiary Member States was clearly 
milder than during the global financial crisis, despite the more severe drop in GDP in 2020. 
The responsiveness of unemployment to changes in output in 2020 was weaker than expected in 

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beneficiary  Member  States,  based  on  historical  trends.  The  milder  increase  in  unemployment 
rates in 2020 offers a first indication of the success of national and EU policy support measures 
including SURE. 

The impact of SURE goes beyond preserving jobs. SURE has likely contributed to increasing 
general confidence in the EU’s ability to respond effectively to an unprecedented crisis. Through 
SURE,  the  EU  has  supported  and  encouraged  the  use  of  short-time  work  policies  in  Member 
States.  A  majority  of  beneficiary  Member  States  indicated  that  SURE  played  a  role  in  their 
decision to adopt a new short-time work scheme or to modify an existing scheme. 

As  an  early  element  of  the  EU  policy  response,  SURE  underpinned  Member  States’ 
confidence to undertake larger borrowing and spending than they otherwise would have. A 
majority  of  beneficiary  Member  States  indicated  in  a  survey  that  SURE  support  had  a  role  in 
temporarily increasing the coverage and  generosity of short-time work schemes and the overall 
funding of policies to address the COVID-19 crisis.  

Financial  assistance  through  SURE  has  also  generated  savings  on  interest  payments  in  a 
number  of  Member  States.  SURE  loans  generally  offered  Member  States  more  favourable 
funding  terms  than  their  own  sovereign  issuance.  As  a  result,  Member  States  are  estimated  to 
have saved a total of around EUR 5.8 billion during the first four issuances of SURE, i.e. up to 
the  disbursement  on  2  February  2021.  As  SURE  funding  terms  are  expected  to  remain 
favourable, further disbursements will likely generate additional savings. 

The continuation of the exceptional occurrences justifying SURE 

The  report  also  discusses  the  continuation  of  the  exceptional  occurrences  that  justify  the 
application of the SURE instrument, namely the resurgence of infections since the autumn. 
This,  together  with  the  appearance  of  new,  more  contagious  variants  of  the  coronavirus,  have 
forced many Member States to reintroduce or tighten containment measures. These restrictions 
have put the recovery on hold after the rebound in economic activity recorded in the third quarter 
of 2020. The robust recovery in industry contrasts with weak activity in services, with the latest 
restrictions  once  again  heavily  impacting  labour-intensive  sectors  such  as  hospitality, 
entertainment  and  tourism.  While  activity  is  expected  to  pick  up  moderately  in  the  second 
quarter and more vigorously in the third, uncertainty and risks surrounding the economic outlook 
remain elevated, according to the Commission Winter 2021 Forecast. 

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INTRODUCTION 

The  Support  to  mitigate  Unemployment  Risks  in  an  Emergency  (SURE)  instrument  was 
created  by  the  European  Union  (EU)  to  help  Member  States  protect  workers’  jobs  and 
income  during  pandemic.  This  instrument  follows  from  the  political  guidelines  of  the 
Commission,  as  a  tool  to  protect  our  citizens  during  external  shocks.1  Specifically,  it  aims  to 
respond to the direct economic, social and health-related effects of the COVID-19 outbreak by 
providing  Member  States  that  so  request  with  Union  financial  assistance  in  the  form  of  loans 
with  favourable  conditions.  Financial  assistance  of  up  to  EUR  100  billion  is  available  under 
SURE  to  help  finance  Member  States’  short-time  work  schemes  or  similar  measures  aimed  at 
protecting  employees  and  self-employed,  and  as  an  ancillary,  health-related  measures,  in 
particular in the workplace.  

SURE  complements  national  efforts  and  offers  a  second  line  of  defence  to  protect 
employees and the self-employed, against the risk of unemployment and loss of income. By 
preserving  the  link  between  workers  and  their  employers,  SURE  also  protects  the  productive 
capacity of the economy and is therefore expected to contribute to a faster and stronger rebound 
of economic activity once the pandemic subsides. 

The  main  achievements  of  SURE  as  of  February  2021  are  highlighted  in  this  report  and 
can be summarised as follows: 

-  25 – 30 million people and 1½ to 2½ million firms are estimated to have been supported 

by SURE 

-  18 Member States have been granted financial assistance under SURE and a 19th Member 

State is expected to be added soon 

-  Over EUR 90 billion has been allocated and over EUR 53 billion has been disbursed  
-  5% of financial assistance has been allocated to health-related measures thus far 
-  80% of the public expenditure expected by Member States has already taken place 
-  Member States are estimated to have saved EUR 5.8 billion in interest payments 

This report is the first bi-annual report on SURE. It is adopted by the European Commission 
(the Commission) in  accordance with  Article 14 of Council Regulation  (EU) 2020/672  (SURE 
Regulation)2 to  deliver on its obligation to  report to  the European Parliament, the Council, the 
Economic and Financial Committee (EFC) and the Employment Committee within 6 months of 
the  SURE  instrument  becoming  active  on  22  September  2020.  Under  Article  14  of  the 
Regulation, the Commission shall report on the use of financial assistance, including outstanding 
amounts  and  the  applicable  repayment  schedule  under  SURE,  and  on  the  continuation  of  the 
exceptional  occurrences  that  justify  the  application  of  the  SURE  Regulation  (the  COVID-19 
pandemic). This is the first such report, which the Commission adopts. Subsequent reports will 

1  The  Commission’s  2019-2024  Political  Guidelines  proposed  a  European  Unemployment  Benefit  Reinsurance 
Scheme to protect European citizens and reduce the pressure on public finances during external shocks. 
2 Council Regulation (EU) 2020/672 of 19 May 2020 on the establishment of a European instrument for temporary 
support  to  mitigate  unemployment  risks  in  an  emergency  (SURE)  following  the  COVID-19  outbreak,  OJ  L  159, 
20.5.2020, p. 1 (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32020R0672&from=en).   

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follow every six months for as long as SURE remains available3. The cut-off date for including 
information in this report was 26 February 2021.  

SURE  is  also  the  first  instance  where  the  EU  issues  social  bonds  to  finance  EU  financial 
assistance  to  Member  States,  building  on  its  commitment  to  sustainable  finance.  The  EU 
adopted and published an EU SURE Social Bond Framework (the Framework) to facilitate this 
commitment4. It explains that SURE resources will be used to finance eligible social measures. 
Section  2.4  of  this  Framework  requires  the  Commission  to  report  on  the  allocation  of  SURE 
proceeds and their impact. This report will also fulfil that obligation. 

This report outlines the operations and use of the SURE instrument to date and reviews its 
socio-economic impacts. It is structured into six sections. Section I recalls the key steps taken 
by the Commission, the Council and the Member States in setting up and implementing SURE. 
Section  II  describes  which  Member  States  benefit  from  financial  assistance  under  SURE, 
including outstanding amounts granted and disbursed and the repayment schedules. Section  III 
summarises the Member States’ public expenditure on national measures supported by SURE.5 
This  section  is  complemented  by  an  overview  of  these  schemes  in  Annex  1.  A  preliminary 
analysis of the impact of SURE is conducted in Section IV, including the impact of the COVID-
19  pandemic  on  employment  and  the  interest  savings  made  by  Member  States  due  to  the 
favourable funding conditions enjoyed by the EU. Section V discusses the ongoing impact of the 
COVID-19 pandemic that  justifies the continuation of SURE. Section VI provides the relevant 
reporting  committed  to  under  Section  2.4  of  the  EU  SURE  Social  Bond  Framework,  which  is 
merged into this report.  

I.  THE SURE INSTRUMENT AND ITS OPERATIONALISATION 

The Commission proposed SURE on 2 April  2020, as part of the EU’s initial response to 
the  COVID-19  pandemic  to  support  Member  States6.  On  the  basis  of  this  proposal,  the 
Council  adopted  the  SURE  Regulation  on  19  May  2020.  The  Commission  then  immediately 
began  with  the  preparation  of  the  necessary  steps  to  ensure  that  the  SURE  instrument  could 
become available in a timely manner and be implemented swiftly in close cooperation with all 27 
Member States. 

In order for SURE to become available, Member States agreed to contribute voluntarily to 
the instrument by counter-guaranteeing the risk borne by the EU. The Union set up a system 
of guarantees, signed voluntarily by Member States and as a measure pursuant to Article 122(1) 
TFEU. To this end, all 27 Member States agreed to provide an irrevocable, unconditional and on-

3 Article 14(1) of the SURE Regulation.  
4 https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/eu-borrower/eu-borrowing-activities/eu-sure-social-bond-
framework_en  
5  Sections  II  and  III  pertain  to  the  use  of  financial  assistance  under  SURE  as  per  Article  14(1)  of  the  SURE 
Regulation. 
6 Proposal for a Council Regulation on the establishment of a European instrument for temporary support to mitigate 
unemployment risks in an emergency (SURE) following the COVID-19 outbreak, COM/2020/139 final. (https://eur-
lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2020%3A0139%3AFIN)  

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demand guarantee for 25% of the total SURE envelope of EUR 100 billion, i.e. EUR 25 billion7. 
As such, SURE could not become available until all 27 Member States had concluded and signed 
guarantee agreements with the Commission on a bilateral basis. The share of each Member State 
in  the  overall  amount  of  guarantees  correspond  to  each  Member  State’s  share  in  the  gross 
national  income  of  the  EU,  in  line  with  the  2020  revenue  part  of  the  EU  Budget.  The  use  of 
guarantees allowed the setting up of the SURE without requiring any up-front cash contributions 
or any paid-in capital by Member States. 

The  setup  of  a  system  of  guarantees  provided  voluntarily  by  all  EU  Member  States  is  a 
strong expression of solidarity among Member States through the EU. It had enabled the EU 
to grant financial assistance of a sufficient order of magnitude to Member States to protect jobs 
and  incomes  during  the  COVID-19  crisis.  The  national  approval  processes  of  the  27  Member 
States were completed over the summer of 2020. Consequently, SURE became available on 22 
September 2020.  

The  SURE  Regulation sets  the  conditions  and  the  procedure  for  Member  States  to  apply 
for financial assistance under the instrument. Member States can request financial support if 
their actual or planned public expenditure increased suddenly and severely as of 1 February 2020 
due to the deployment of short-time work schemes and similar measures to mitigate the impact 
of the COVID-19 pandemic.8 Based on a proposal from the Commission, the Council may grant 
financial assistance under SURE by way of a Council implementing decision (CID).9 The period 
of  availability  during  which  financial  assistance  can  be  provided  under  the  SURE  instrument 
ends on 31 December 202210. 

The  Commission  proceeded  with  the  implementation  of  SURE  immediately  after  the 
approval  of  the  Regulation  by  the  Council.  It  started  engaging  with  all  27  Member  States 
immediately after the SURE Regulation was adopted in May 2020. It inquired whether Member 
States  would  request  financial  assistance  under  SURE  with  a  view  to  plan  and  prepare  as 
speedily  as  possible  the  implementation  of  the  instrument  once  it  became  available  after  the 
signature  of  the  bilateral  guarantees.  After  having  received  formal  requests  for  support,  the 
Commission presented proposals to grant financial assistance to 15 Member States on 24 August 
2020,  followed  by  another  proposal  on  25  August.  After  SURE  became  available  on  22 
September 2020, the Council adopted the CIDs to grant financial assistance for all 16 Member 
States  (see  Table  1).  In  the  last  quarter  of  2020,  two  additional  CIDs  were  adopted  by  the 
Council, bringing the total number of beneficiary Member States under the SURE instrument to 
18 overall to date. In early February 2021, another Member State officially applied for support 
under  SURE  and  on  26  February,  the  Commission  proposed  to  provide  support  to  it.  This 
timeline of events is detailed in Table 1. 

7 See Articles 11 and 12 of the SURE Regulation.  
8 See Article 3(1) of the SURE Regulation.  
9 See Article 6 of the SURE Regulation. 
10 See Article 12(3) of the SURE Regulation.  

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Table 1: Timeline of SURE implementation 

  2 April 2020 

The Commission proposed the creation of SURE 

  19 May 2020 

The Council approved the proposal and adopted the SURE regulation 

  24 August 2020 

The  Commission  proposed  financial  support  of  EUR  81.4  billion  for  15  Member  States:  Belgium,  Bulgaria, 
Cyprus,  Czechia,  Greece,  Spain,  Croatia,  Italy,  Lithuania,  Latvia,  Malta,  Poland,  Romania,  Slovenia  and 
Slovakia 

  25 August 2020 

The Commission proposed financial support of EUR 5.9 billion for Portugal 

  22 September 2020 

SURE became available 

  25 September 2020 

The Council decided to grant financial support to 16 Member States 

  7 October 2020 

The Commission proposed financial support of EUR 504 million to Hungary 

  23 October 2020 

The Council decided to grant financial support of EUR 504 million to Hungary 

  16 November 2020 

The Commission proposed financial support of EUR 2.5 billion to Ireland 

  4 December 2020 

The Council decided to grant financial support of EUR 2.5 billion to Ireland 

  26 February 2021 

The Commission proposed financial support of EUR 230 million to Estonia 

Each Member State benefitting from financial assistance under SURE was required to sign 
a  loan  agreement  with  the  Commission  laying  down  the  characteristics  of  the  loan.11  The 
Commission  is  empowered  by  the  SURE  Regulation  to  borrow  on  behalf  of  the  Union  on 
financial  markets  or  with  financial  institutions,  and  also  able  to  disburse  financial  assistance 
granted by the Council under SURE to beneficiary Member States. Most of the loan agreements 
(including  Requests  for  Funds  and  Legal  Opinions)  were  signed  in  the  last  quarter  of  2020, 
which enabled the Commission to issue SURE bonds, starting with the inaugural issuance on 20 
October 2020. Given the size of the borrowing on the financial markets, these bonds have been 
issued in tranches, on four occasions up to the end of January 2021. The funds raised have been 
disbursed to Member States in instalments, within a week of the issuance.12 SURE bonds have 
been  issued  under  a  novel  EU  Social  Bond  Framework,  as  the  support  granted  by  the  EU  to 
Member  States  under  the  instrument  pursues  the  social  objective  of  preserving  employment, 
sustaining families’ incomes and supporting the economy as a whole. The favourable terms that 

11 See Article 8(2) of the SURE Regulation.  
12 See Article 7 of the SURE Regulation. 

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the  Commission  achieved  with  its  borrowings  for  SURE  were  passed  on  directly  to  Member 
States via back-to-back lending13 (see Section II).  

II.  THE USE OF FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE UNDER SURE: AMOUNTS GRANTED AND DISBURSED 

AND OTHER FINANCIAL ASPECTS  

This  section  presents  an  overview  of  beneficiary  Member  States  and  amounts  granted  by  the 
Council as well as the disbursement, outstanding amounts and applicable repayment schedule. 

(i) Overview of beneficiary Member States and amounts granted by the Council 

The  demand  from  Member  States  for  financial  assistance  under  SURE  has  been  strong 
since  its  introduction,  with  over  90%  of  the  total  envelope  of  EUR  100  billion  allocated. 
Eighteen Member States have applied for, and been granted, financial assistance by the Council 
for a total amount of EUR 90.3 billion (see Table 2). A 19th Member State requested financial 
assistance under SURE in February 202114. 

The three largest amounts for financial assistance under SURE have been granted to Italy 
(EUR  27.4  billion),  Spain  (EUR  21.3  billion)  and  Poland  (EUR  11.2  billion).  Collectively, 
these  three  Member  States  have  reached  SURE’s  concentration  limit,  which  specifies  that  the 
loans  granted  to  the  three  Member  States  representing  the  largest  share  of  loans  should  not 
exceed 60% of the total envelope of EUR 100 billion, i.e. EUR 60 billion.15  

13 In back-to-back lending, the Commission borrows on behalf of the Union and on-lends to Member States at the 
same conditions.  
14  On  26  February  2021,  the  Commission  issued  a  proposal  for  a  Council  Implementing  Decision  to  granting 
temporary support under the SURE Regulation to Estonia for an amount of EUR 230 million (COM/2021/104 final).  
15  Article  9(1)  of  the  SURE  Regulation.  The  concentration  limit  means  that  these  three  Member  States  will  be  
unable to request any additional support, nor would any other Member State be able to borrow a total greater than 
EUR 11.2 billion (the third largest share granted thus far), as they would then exceed the 60% limit. 

8 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Table 2: Overview of support granted under SURE 

Member State 
Belgium 
Bulgaria 
Cyprus 
Czechia 
Greece 
Spain 
Croatia 
Italy 
Lithuania 
Latvia 
Malta 
Poland 
Portugal 
Romania 
Slovenia 
Slovakia 
Hungary 
Ireland 
Total 

Amount Granted (EUR) 
7 803 380 000 
511 000 000 
479 070 000 
2 000 000 000 
2 728 000 000 
21 324 820 449 
1 020 600 000 
27 438 486 464 
602 310 000 
192 700 000 
243 632 000 
11 236 693 087 
5 934 462 488 
4 099 244 587 
1 113 670 000 
630 883 600 
504 330 000 
2 473 887 900 
90 337 170 575 

Date Granted 
September 2020 
September 2020 
September 2020 
September 2020 
September 2020 
September 2020 
September 2020 
September 2020 
September 2020 
September 2020 
September 2020 
September 2020 
September 2020 
September 2020 
September 2020 
September 2020 
October 2020 
December 2020 

CID reference 
CID (EU) 2020/1342 
CID (EU) 2020/1343 
CID (EU) 2020/1344 
CID (EU) 2020/1345 
CID (EU) 2020/1346 
CID (EU) 2020/1347 
CID (EU) 2020/1348 
CID (EU) 2020/1349 
CID (EU) 2020/1350 
CID (EU) 2020/1351 
CID (EU) 2020/1352 
CID (EU) 2020/1353 
CID (EU) 2020/1354 
CID (EU) 2020/1355 
CID (EU) 2020/1356 
CID (EU) 2020/1357 
CID (EU) 2020/1561 
CID (EU) 2020/2005 

 (ii) The disbursement, outstanding amounts and applicable repayment schedule  

The  Commission  is  in  charge  of  borrowing  operations.  In  accordance  with  the  SURE 
Regulation,  the  Commission  is  empowered  to  borrow  resources  on  the  capital  markets  or  with 
financial institutions on behalf of the Union to finance the loans provided under SURE (back-to-
back lending)16.  

The  Commission  began  borrowing  resources  on  behalf  of  the  EU  on  capital  markets  by 
issuing social bonds shortly after the loan agreements were signed in October 2020. Bond 
issuance proceeded based on a series of financial transactions. A total of four transactions have 
been carried out so far, as explained below. The issuances have been very successful, with strong 
investor interest resulting in favourable pricing terms across all tranches (see Table 3). At end-
February  2021,  a  total  of  15  Member  States  had  received  EUR  53.5  billion  across  4 
disbursements,  representing  59%  of  the  EUR  90.3  billion  funds  requested.  The  SURE  social 
bonds have been issued with maturities ranging from 5 to 30 years, resulting in disbursements to 
Member  States  with  an  average  maturity  of  14.5  years.17  Table  5  provides  an  overview  of  the 
amounts  disbursed  to  Member  States  thus  far,  by  borrowing  transaction  and  maturity.  It  also 
outlines the outstanding amounts still to be disbursed to each Member State. 

16 Article 4 of the SURE Regulation.  
17 Article 2(1) of each of the Council Implementing Decisions specifies that the Union’s loan to the Member State 
shall have a maximum average maturity of 15 years.  

9 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
30 year 
(tap) 
4 bn 

0.134% 

MS+5 bps 

49 bn 

12 

Yield 

Spread 

New Issue 
Concession 
Total investor demand 

Table 3: Key Statistics of the EU’s SURE Borrowing Transactions (EUR) 
Transaction 

SURE #3 

SURE #1 

SURE #2 

SURE #4 

Date 

Tranche 

20 Oct 2020 

10 Nov 2020 

24 Nov 2020 

26 Jan 2021 

10 year 

20 year 

5 year 

30 year 

15 year 

7 year 

Size of bond 

10 bn 

7 bn 

8 bn 

6 bn 

-0.238% 
MS+3 
bps 

0.131% 
MS +14 
bps 

-0.509% 
MS-9 
bps 

0.317% 
MS+21 
bps 

8.5 bn 

-0.102% 

MS-5bps 

10 bn 

-0.497% 
MS-16 
bps 

+1 bps 

+2 bps 

+1.5 bps  +2.5 bps 

+1 bps 

+1 bps 

+1 bps 

145 bn 

88 bn 

105 bn 

70 bn 

114 bn 

83 bn 

Bid-to-cover ratio 

15 

13 

13 

12 

13 

8 

Note:  These  statistics  refer  to  the  Commission’s  borrowings  on  behalf  of  the  Union.  MS  refers  to  midswap  rates.  New  issue 
concession refers to the premium paid to investors purchasing a new-issue bond over the spread at  which corresponding bonds 
would be expected to trade in the secondary market. 

The  first  SURE  transaction  of  EUR  17  billion  was  executed  successfully  on  20  October 
2020,  in  two  tranches.  The  issuance  consisted  of  two  bonds,  with  EUR  10  billion  due  for 
repayment in October 2030 and EUR 7 billion due for repayment in 2040. There was very strong 
investor  interest  in  this  highly-rated  instrument,  with  the  bonds  more  than  13  times 
oversubscribed. On 27 October 2020, the funds were disbursed to Italy, Poland and Spain. 

The  second  SURE  transaction  was  executed  on  10  November  2020  for  a  total  amount  of 
EUR  14  billion.  This  issuance  was  also  split  over  two  distinct  tenors:  EUR  8  billion  due  in 
November 2025 and EUR 6 billion due in November 2050. The funds were disbursed to Croatia, 
Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Slovenia and Spain.  

The  third  transaction,  with  a  single  tranche,  was  executed  successfully  on  24  November 
2020  for  a  EUR  8.5  billion  bond  due  in  July  2035.  The  15-year  social  bond  amassed  the 
largest-ever  order  book  for  any  single  tranche  benchmark  issuance  and  printed  the  largest  15-
year  deal  size  in  the  Sovereigns,  Supranationals  and  Agencies  (SSA)  space  to  date.  The  funds 
were disbursed to Belgium, Hungary, Portugal, Romania and Slovakia on 1 December 2020. 

The  fourth  transaction  and  the  first  of  2021  was  performed,  with  a  dual  tranche,  on  26 
January 2021. The EUR 14 billion social bond was split between EUR 10 billion  due in June 
2028 and a EUR 4 billion tap to the existing bond due in November 2050. The bonds were over 8 
and 12 times oversubscribed, respectively, with  the 7-year bond priced  at  a negative  yield of  -
0.497% and the 30-year bond priced at 0.134%, a positive result for this maturity. On 2 February 
2021, the funds were disbursed to Belgium, Cyprus, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, 
Greece and Italy.  

Reporting  on  the  repayment  schedule  is  presented  in  Table  4.  The  repayments  of  the  loan 
principal are due between 2025 and 2050. Interest payments are due annually.  

10 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4: Repayment Schedule of EU’s SURE Outstanding Loans 

Calendar year 
2021 
2022 
2023 
2024 
2025 
2026 
2027 
2028 
2029 
2030 
2031 
2032 
2033 
2034 
2035 
2036 
2037 
2038 
2039 
2040 
2041 
2042 
2043 
2044 
2045 
2046 
2047 
2048 
2049 
2050 
Total 

Principal 

8 000 000 000 

10 000 000 000 

10 000 000 000 

8 500 000 000 

7 000 000 000 

10 000 000 000 
53 500 000 000 

Interest 
32,960,000  
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
1 035 960 000 

SURE Total 
32 960 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
8 037 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
10 037 000 000 
37 000 000 
10 037 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
8 537 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
37 000 000 
7 037 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
30 000 000 
10 030 000 000 
54 535 960 000 

11 

 
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
Table 5:  Disbursements to Member States under SURE (in EUR billion) 

Country 

Initial 
loan 
amount 

1st EU SURE issuance  
Transaction: 20.10.2020  
Disbursement: 27.10.2020 

2nd EU SURE issuance 
Transaction: 10.11.2020 
Disbursement: 17.11.2020 

10y 

20y 

Total 

5y 

30y 

Total 

3rd EU SURE 
issuance 
Transaction: 
24.11.2020 
Disbursement: 
01.12.2020 

15y 

2.0 

7y 

1.3 

4th EU SURE 
issuance 
Transaction: 
26.01.2021 
Disbursement: 
02.02.2021 

30y 

Total 

Total 
SURE 

% of 
total 
reque
sted 

Avg. 
matur
ity 
(years
) 

0.7 

2.0 

4.0 

51% 

14.9 

Belgium 

Bulgaria 

Cyprus 

Czechia 

Greece 

Spain 

Croatia 

Hungary 

Ireland 

7.80 

0.51 

0.48 

2.00 

2.73 

21.32 

3.5 

2.5 

6.0 

1.02 

0.50 

2.47 

Italy 

27.44 

5.5 

4.5 

10.0 

Lithuania 

Latvia 

Malta 

0.60 

0.19 

0.24 

Poland 

11.24 

1.0 

1.0 

Portugal 

Romania 

Slovenia  

Slovakia 

Total 

5.93 

4.10 

1.11 

0.63 

90.3 

0.2 

0.1 

0.3 

0.2 

0.1 

0.2 

0.5 

100% 

14.7 

1.0 

2.9 

0.3 

3.1 

0.2 

0.1 

0.1 

1.0 

1.2 

0.2 

3.4 

0.1 

0.0 

0.0 

2.0 

4.0 

0.5 

6.5 

0.3 

0.1 

0.1 

0.2 

0.2 

0.7 

1.0 

0.2 

0.2 

0.1 

4.5 

0.0 

0.0 

2.6 

1.7 

0.5 

0.4 

3.0 

3.0 

0.3 

8.5 

0.7 

1.0 

0.0 

0.3 

4.5 

0.0 

0.1 

0.0 

4.3 

0.0 

0.0 

0.9 

0.0 

2.7 

11.0 

0.5 

0.5 

21.0 

0.3 

0.2 

0.1 

5.3 

3.0 

3.0 

1.1 

0.3 

100% 

52% 

50% 

100% 

76% 

50% 

100% 

49% 

47% 

51% 

73% 

100% 

48% 

59% 

14.8 

14.9 

13.3 

14.7 

14.0 

13.3 

14.8 

13.3 

14.9 

14.6 

14.6 

14.8 

14.6 

14.5 

10.0 

4.0 

14.0 

53.5 

10.0 

7.0 

17.0 

8.0 

6.0 

14.0 

12 

Outst
andin
g 
amou
nt to 
be 
disbu
rsed 
3.8 

0.5 

0.0 

2.0 

0.0 

10.3 

0.5 

0.0 

2.5 

6.5 

0.3 

0.0 

0.1 

6.0 

2.9 

1.1 

0.0 

0.3 

36.8 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
III.  THE USE OF THE SURE INSTRUMENT: PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND NATIONAL MEASURES 

COVERED BY SURE 

This  section  summarises  the  public  expenditure  and  national  measures  by  Member  States 
covered by SURE. 

3.1 Actual and planned public expenditure supported by SURE 

This section describes the planned and actual use of the financial assistance granted under 
SURE,  based  on  data  reported  by  17  Member  States  to  the  Commission.18  Beneficiary 
Member States should use financial assistance under SURE primarily in  support of their short-
time work schemes or similar measures, notably for the self-employed, and, where applicable, in 
support  of  relevant  health-related  measures,  in  particular  those  at  the  work  place19.  Firstly,  the 
allocation of public expenditure will be presented, followed by the estimated employee and firm 
coverage  of  SURE.  The  presentation  will  be  based  on  two  iterations  of  reporting  by  Member 
States: in August 2020 at the time of their request for financial assistance under SURE (“initial 
reporting”),  and  again  in  late  January  and  early  February  2021  (“updated  reporting”).  The 
information is presented as reported by Member States.20 

Firstly,  at  the  end  of  2020,  80%  of  total  planned  public  expenditure  on  eligible  measures 
had  already  taken  place.21  Financial  assistance  under  SURE  was  provided  to  help  Member 
States  cope  with  sudden  and  severe  increases  in  actual  public  expenditure  experienced  since  1 
February  2020  due  to  the  deployment  of  short‐ time  work  schemes  and  similar  measures  to 
address  the  socio-economic  effects  of  the  COVID-19  pandemic.  It  also  allowed  for  financial 
assistance  to  be  used  for  planned  increases  in  public  expenditures  on  such  measures.  In  June 
2020,  incurred  public  expenditure  supported  by  SURE  comprised  46%  of  total  public 
expenditure, with this figure rising to 80% in December 2020. Graph 1 shows the evolution of 
this ratio since the introduction of SURE. 

18 Czechia did not provide an updated reporting pursuant to Article 11 of the SURE Regulation by the cut-off date, 
as such, all data relating to Czechia is based on their initial reporting in August 2020. 
19 See Article 3(2) and 1(2) of the SURE Regulation.  
20 New measures submitted by Member States at the time of the updated reporting are not yet taken into account as 
they have not been yet assessed in terms of eligibility. 
21  Eligible  measures  are  those  described  in  Article  3(2)  of  the  Regulation:  national  short-time  work  schemes  or 
similar measures, and as an ancillary, health-related measures.  

13 

 
 
 
 
                                                           
Graph 1: Monthly evolution of public expenditure under SURE (incurred and planned) 

Note: The  slightly  negative expenditure  in July 2021 is due  to large expected payments from European Structural 
Investment Funds in support of short-time work schemes in that month. 

Comparing the initial and updated reporting by Member States shows that they spent less 
than originally expected in 2020. The estimate of actual public expenditure between February 
and June 2020 decreased by EUR 1.3 billion in the most recent reporting (see Graph 2). At the 
time that Member States applied for SURE, they expected to spend EUR 90.0 billion on SURE-
eligible measures throughout 2020. Ultimately, they spent EUR 79.3 billion, EUR 9.6 billion less 
than expected.  

The  updated  reporting  by  Member  States  has  shown  some  backloading  of  public 
expenditure. Half of the Member States incurred higher public expenditure in  the  first  half of 
2020 than estimated in August 2020, while half of Member States incurred lower (see Graph 3). 
In  the  two  Member  States  with  the  highest  increase  in  expenditure  in  the  first  half  of  2020, 
expenditure then decreased in  the second half of  the  year. Nine Member  States reported lower 
public  expenditure  in  the  second  half  of  2020  than  initially  expected.  In  most  cases,  this  is 
associated with higher planned expenditure in 2021. However, two Member States also plan less 
expenditure in 2021.  

In  the  updated  reporting,  Member  States  planned  to  spend  more  in  2021  and  2022  than 
initially reported in August 2020. The planned public expenditure on eligible measures in 2021 
has increased from EUR 7.4 billion in the initial reporting in August 2020 to EUR 19.8 billion in 
the  January  2020  reporting  (see  Graph  2).  Only  two  Member  States  have  submitted  planned 
public expenditure in 2022 (EUR 1.3 billion) in the updated reporting. Total public expenditure 
on  eligible  measures  across  beneficiary  Member  States  of  EUR  99.1  billion  is  now  expected, 
which  is  above  the  total  amount  granted  under  SURE  thus  far.  This  is  in  line  with  the 
complementary nature of the SURE instrument, in that it complements the national financing of 
employment  supports.  Some  Member  States  plan  to  spend  more  on  these  measures  than  the 
SURE  financial  assistance  they  have  requested,  including  those  who  reached  SURE’s 
concentration limit. 

14 

02040608010012002468101214161820 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022EUR BnEUR BnMonthly expenditure (LHS)Cumulated spending (RHS)IncurredPlanned 
 
 
 
 
Graph 2: Aggregate reported public expenditure 

Graph 3: Difference in incurred public expenditure between initial and updated reporting 
(% of loan amount) 

Note:  Ireland  applied  for  financial  assistance  under  SURE  on  27  October  2020  and  the  reporting  did  not  change 
between the initial and updated tables. Czechia did not provide an updated reporting table before the cut-off date. 

Almost  all  Member  States  have  already  spent  or  plan  to  spend  the  total  amount  granted 
under  SURE.  Actually,  15  Member  States  have  spent  or  plan  to  spend  beyond  the  current 
financial assistance received under SURE on eligible measures (see Graph 4). This means that, in 
aggregate,  Member  States  will  spend  more  on  short-time  work  schemes  and  similar  measures 
than  the  amount  for  which  they  have  applied  for  under  SURE  financial  assistance.  However, 
three Member States have reported lower planned expenditure on the measures provided in the 
respective CIDs than the amount granted under SURE. This is based on the updated reporting by 
Member  States,  who  also  indicated  that  they  have  already  taken  or  intend  to  take  steps,  if 
necessary,  to  use  all  of  the  financial  assistance  granted  under  SURE,  including  in  some  cases 
extending  the  duration  of  measures  provided  for  in  the  respective  CIDs.  The  Commission  will 
assess  any  changes  to  planned  expenditure,  as  put  forward  by  Member  States,  to  ensure  they 

15 

464544348209899020406080100120Initial reportingUpdated reportingEUR BnFeb-Jun 2020Jul-Dec 20202021-2022plannedincurredincurredincurredplanned-40-30-20-100102030% loan amountFeb-Jun 2020Jul-Dec 2020 
 
 
 
 
 
remain  aligned  with  the  purpose  of  SURE  and  propose  amendments  to  the  CIDs  where 
appropriate. 

Graph 4: Excess of planned and incurred 
public expenditure over loan amount (% of 
loan amount) 

Graph 5: Share of health-related public 
expenditure  

Note: Public expenditure refers to those reported, without adjusting for the concentration limit, on the measures as 
provided for in the CIDs, i.e. any new measures reported by Member States  that are not in the CIDs are excluded. 
Data are reported as per the reporting tables submitted by Member States. However, Member States with shortfalls, 
as seen in Graph 4, intend to use the full amount granted under SURE. In particular, the Italian authorities noted that 
they plan to spend the full amount granted. In reference to Graph 5, Hungary’s initial request for financial assistance 
was capped at 49% expenditure on health-related measures since these are ancillary and therefore could not reach 
half  or  more  of  the  total  amount  granted  under  SURE.  In  the  updated  reporting,  and  as  with  the  majority  of 
beneficiary  Member  States,  total  public  expenditure  on  measures  eligible  under  SURE  will  exceed  the  maximum 
amount granted under SURE (and would need to be financed nationally, or with other instruments). In the specific 
case of Hungary, this excess is more than proportionally due to health-related measures, explaining the increase in 
the health-related ratio beyond 50%.  

Most  financial  assistance  under  SURE  has  been  used  by  Member  States  in  support  of 
labour market measures, with a limited number of Member States also using it for health-
related  measures.  In  aggregate,  5%  of  financial  assistance  under  SURE  has  been  allocated  to 
health-related measures thus far, with 10 Member States only using the financial assistance for 
short time work schemes and similar measures (see Graph 5). The SURE Regulation allows for 
the financing of health-related measures as an ancillary. In the Council’s decisions on financial 
assistance  thus  far,  no  Member  State  has  been  allowed  a  share  of  health-related  measures  of 
more than 49%.22  

The financial assistance under SURE is  equal to 2.8% of the wages of employees  and the 
self-employed  across  beneficiary  Member  States  in  2020.23  This  share  ranges  from  0.8%  to 

22 The Commission consistently gave Member States, bilaterally and in the Council, guidance that these measures 
should not exceed 15% of the amount granted.  
23  Wages  here  are  measured  as  compensation  of  employees  and  gross  operating  surplus  +  mixed  income  of 
households and non-profit institutions serving households (wages of self-employed).  

16 

-100-50050100RomaniaItalyPortugalBulgariaPolandLatviaMaltaSloveniaIrelandLithuaniaCroatiaHungaryBelgiumSpainCzechiaCyprusSlovakiaGreece010203040506070PolandCzechiaGreeceIrelandCroatiaSloveniaSlovakiaLithuaniaBulgariaBelgiumMaltaRomaniaCyprusSpainItalyLatviaPortugalHungary% total expenditure Updated reportingInitial reporting 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
5.3% across Member States (see Graph 6). The financial assistance is also equivalent to 1.5% of 
the GDP of beneficiary Member States. 

Graph 6: Loan amount % of employee and self-employed wage bill by Member State 

Note:  Wages  here  are  measured  as  compensation  of  employees  and  gross  operating  surplus  +  mixed  income  of 
households and non-profit institutions serving households (wages of self-employed). 2020 estimates are taken from 
the European Commission’s Autumn 2020 Forecast.  

3.2 SURE coverage in terms of people employed and firms 

In  2020,  SURE  is  estimated  to  have  supported  between  25  and  30  million  people,  which 
accounts for one quarter of total employment across beneficiary Member States.24 This also 
accounts for approximately two thirds of employees under short-time work schemes in the EU.25 
The central estimate of 26½ million is comprised of approximately 21½ million employees and 5 
million  self-employed  workers.26  A  breakdown  by  Member  State  is  shown  in  Graph  7,  with 
coverage ranging from 7% to almost 70% of total employment. The  number of people covered 

24  Whilst  the  reporting  of  public  expenditure  by  Member  States  was  satisfactory,  the  reporting  requested  by  the 
Commission  on  firms  and  people  covered  by  measures  supported  by  SURE  was  incomplete  and  heterogeneous 
across  Member  States.  This  required  the  use  of  reasonable  assumptions  and  drawing  upon  other  available  data 
sources (see footnotes 26 and 28). Therefore, the report presents ballpark estimates on people and firm coverage due 
to incomplete reporting by Member States. The responsibility for reporting data lies with Member States. It should 
be noted that the information regarding firms and employees, which the Commission requests from Member States, 
is  based  on  the  Commission’s  endeavour  under  Section  2.4  of  the  EU  SURE  Social  Bond  Framework  to  obtain 
relevant data and indicators from the beneficiary Member states, such as number of jobs and number of companies 
covered/supported. The impact reporting will depend on the quality and granularity of the information provided to 
the Commission. 
25 This proportion is a rough estimate as the available data on employees in short-time work schemes only relates to 
the number of people who applied for short-time work schemes, is based on the peak numbers in April / May 2020 
and does not include the self-employed. To better align this data with SURE coverage data, we have excluded the 
self-employed from SURE coverage and assumed ‘similar measures’ cover short-time work schemes. 
26  No  updated  information  on  coverage  has  been  reported  by  Czechia.  The  aggregate  figure  assumes  a  similar 
employment coverage there as in the other Member States, i.e. close to one quarter of total employment. However, if 
Czechia’s reporting table from August 2020 were confirmed as correct, the aggregate estimate of people  supported 
by  SURE  would  rise  to  27.5  million.  The  breakdown  by  Member  State  in  Graph  7  reports  the  information  as 
reported by Member States. The employment coverage of SURE measures is significantly higher than coverage of 
the wage bill. This is due, inter alia, to the fact that some people may have only benefitted from supports for some 
months, rather than the full year for which wages were paid. 

17 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
by  health-related  measures  is  difficult  to  estimate  with  a  sufficient  degree  of  accuracy,  as  the 
measures  are  heterogeneous  across  Member  States.  Therefore,  these  estimates  could  also  be 
considered conservative, given that SURE support extends beyond labour market measures and 
therefore benefits a wider public.  

Graph 7: Number of workers covered by SURE (% of 2020 total employment) 

Note: The coverage figures are those reported by Member States. Czechia’s figures are based on initial reporting in 
August  2020,  therefore,  the  aggregate  coverage  figure  instead  assumes  a  similar  employment  coverage  as  in  the 
other Member States. Total employment figures are taken from AMECO, using the national accounts definition of 
total employment, including both wage and salary earners and the self-employed.  

The Commission’s estimations, based on the reporting by Member States, indicate that 1½ 
million  to  2½  million  firms  have  been  supported  by  SURE  in  2020  across  the  Member 
States. Only 14 Member States reported updated data on firm coverage.27 For reporting Member 
States, almost 800,000 firms have been supported by SURE. This represents 12% of total firms 
in those Member States. With some larger beneficiary Member States not reporting the requested 
data, this figure is incomplete and significantly underrepresents the actual total number of firms 
covered.  The  numbers  of  firms  covered  is  estimated  to  increase  significantly  to  between  1½ 
million  to  2½  million  firms  when  the  remaining  four  Member  States  are  taken  into  account, 
based on reasonable assumptions.28 Member States who have not reported the requested data to 
the Commission are invited to do so for the second report on SURE. 

27 The  14 Member States that reported firm coverage  were  Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, Hungary, Ireland, 
Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Czechia only provided figures in the 
initial reporting.  
28 The low-end estimate of 1½ million assumes a similar coverage of firms in those four Member States. The high-
end estimate (2½ million) accounts for the fact that employee coverage is higher on average in those four Member 
States, which could translate into higher coverage of firms. 

18 

010203040506070SloveniaCyprusCzechia*CroatiaMaltaItalyGreeceIrelandSpainSlovakiaLithuaniaBelgiumSURE-18PortugalRomaniaLatviaHungaryPolandBulgaria% total employmentEmployeesSelf-employed 
 
  
  
 
 
 
 
                                                           
3.3 A concise review of the short time work schemes or similar measures supported by SURE 

Out of the 18 Member States that benefit from SURE support, 15 Member States did so in 
order  to  help  finance  short-time  work  schemes.  These  are  public  programmes  allowing 
businesses  experiencing  economic  difficulties  to  temporarily  reduce  the  hours  worked  by  their 
employees, who are provided with public income support for the hours not worked. Of the three 
Member States that did not use financial assistance under SURE for the financing of short-time 
work  schemes,  Ireland  and  Malta  have  similar  schemes  that  provide  support  to  companies 
affected by the COVID-19 crisis in the form of wage subsidies (see further below). Meanwhile, 
Hungary  has  a  short-time  work  scheme  in  place,  but  its  public  expenditure  has  been  entirely 
financed through the European Social Fund (and was therefore not eligible under SURE). 

In the majority of cases, the supported short-time work schemes are new schemes set up in 
response  to  the  COVID-19  pandemic  (see  Table  6).  All  of  these  new  schemes  have  been 
established on a temporary basis, and are contingent on the economic distress experienced. The 
five  Member  States  supported  by  SURE  that  already  had  short-time  work  schemes  in  place 
before  the  COVID-19  outbreak  (Belgium,  Spain,  Italy,  Portugal  and  Slovakia)  have  adapted 
them  in  response  to  the  pandemic.  The  changes  introduced  mainly  concerned  the  temporary 
simplification of administrative procedures, a broadening of coverage, a relaxation of eligibility 
conditions,  higher  generosity  (for  employees  and/or  for  employers),  and  increased  duration  of 
support.  

All national short-time work schemes provide support for employees whose contract is fully 
suspended following the complete interruption  of business  activities.  In addition,  most (but 
not  all)  schemes  provide  support  also  in  case  of  a  partial  reduction  of  working  hours,  when 
business activities are reduced. While in most cases companies are free to choose the extent of 
working  time  reduction,  in  some  countries  restrictions  apply.  For  instance,  in  Greece  and 
Slovenia besides the full suspension of work (in case of a complete stoppage of activities), only a 
reduction from full-time to part-time work is allowed. The amount of public support is generally 
calculated as a percentage of the employee’s salary, and it ranges from 50% to 100%. Annex 1 
provides further detail on the short-time work schemes. 

All  18  Member  States  except  Bulgaria  and  Croatia  have  applied  for  support  to  finance 
‘measures similar to short-time work schemes’. This was, in most cases, in addition to short-
time  work  schemes.  These  are  measures  that  are  aimed  at  protecting  employees  and  the  self‐
employed,  reducing  the  incidence  of  unemployment  and  loss  of  income  in  the  context  of  the 
COVID-19 crisis, but which do not strictly fall under the definition of short-time work scheme 
provided  above.  The  number  and  type  of  measures  that  fall  under  this  category  vary 
considerably. They can be broadly grouped as follows: 

-  Wage  subsidy  schemes,  such  as  those  found  in  Ireland  and  Malta  mentioned  above, 
subsidising  the  labour  costs  of  companies  affected  by  the  COVID-19  crisis.  These 
schemes  achieve  the  same  purpose  of  short-time  work  schemes  (i.e.  preserving 
employment,  helping  companies  to  avoid  laying  off  their  employees).  However,  the 

19 

 
 
support  granted  is  not  directly  linked  to  the  actual  reduction  in  the  number  of  hours 
worked by each employee, but only to the reduction in turnover. 

-  Measures supporting self-employed workers, found in almost all Member States that have 
applied  for  SURE  support.  These  encompass  one-off  income  support  benefits,  granted 
either  as  a  flat-rate  amount,  or  as  a  function  of  previous  earnings/realised  losses;  and 
other support measures reducing the operating costs of businesses, to the extent that these 
benefit  the  self-employed  and  one-person  companies.  A  key  requirement  is  that  the 
beneficiaries  of  support  continue  to  exercise  their  self-employed  profession  or 
entrepreneurial activity (i.e. they do not go out of business).  

-  Special  parental  leave  benefits  (Belgium,  Czechia,  Italy,  Portugal,  Cyprus  and  Malta), 
providing  income  support  to  employees  and/or  self-employed  workers  with  children 
during periods of exceptional school closure. 

-  Support for seasonal workers (Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Spain) with an employment contract 
put on hold due to the pandemic, mainly in tourism and/or agriculture. These are ‘regular’ 
seasonal workers who were supposed to resume work for the 2020 spring/summer season, 
but could not do so due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

-  Support for training linked to short-time work support (Belgium, Portugal). This type of 
support promotes  the provision of vocational  training to  workers who are on short-time 
work. 

Nine Member States requested financial assistance under SURE for the financing of health-
related expenditure directly related to the COVID-19 emergency. This category includes: 

-  Special COVID-19 sick  leave and/or quarantine leave (Cyprus,  Latvia, Malta, Portugal, 

Spain).  

-  Costs  related  to  increased  health  and  safety  requirements  for  the  public  sector  (Latvia, 

Hungary, Portugal). 

-  Measures  aimed  at  lowering  the  costs  of  increased  sanitary  health  and  safety 

requirements at the workplace, for the private sector (Italy). 

- 

Increased  expenditure  for  the  public  healthcare  system,  including  personnel  costs  (e.g. 
overtime  and  extra  pay  for  medical  staff,  hiring  of  additional  temporary  personnel 
(Hungary, Romania, Portugal), renovation works for hospitals (Hungary) and/or purchase 
of  additional  equipment,  protective  material,  supplies  and  consumables  (Belgium, 
Hungary, Latvia, Portugal).  

20 

 
 
 
 
 
Table 6 – Characteristics of national short-time work schemes supported by SURE 

Member 
State 

New 
Scheme 

Permanent/Temporary 
scheme 

Amount of 
support (% of 
salary) 

Costs for the 
employer 

Reduction of 
working time 

BE 

BG 

CZ 

IE 
EL 

ES 

HR 

IT 

CY 
LV 
LT 
HU 
MT 
PL 

PT 

RO 

SI 

SK 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

- 
Yes 

No 

Yes 

No 

Yes 
Yes 
Yes 
- 
- 
Yes 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

Permanent (with 
temporary modifications) 

Temporary 

Temporary 

- 
Temporary 

Permanent (with 
temporary modifications) 

Temporary 

Permanent (with 
temporary modifications) 

Temporary 
Temporary 
Temporary 
- 
- 
Temporary 

Permanent (with 
temporary modifications) 

Temporary 

Temporary 

Temporary (but regularly 
renewed) 

70% 

60% 

60-80% 

- 
60% 

70% 

50% 

80% 

60% 
50-75% 
30-100% 
- 
- 
50% 

66-100% 

75% 

80% 

80% 

- 

0-100% 

40% of labour 
costs 

20-40% of the 
indemnity 

- 
- 

0-30% of social 
contributions 

- 

- 

- 
- 

- 
- 
- 

0-30% of the 
indemnity 

- 
0-20% of the 
indemnity 

50% or 100% 

0-100% 

- 
50% or 100% 

0-100% 

0-100% 

0-100% 

0-100% 
0-100% 
0-100% 
- 
- 
20-100% 

0-100% 

0-100% 

50-100% 

- 

0-100% 

IV.  PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF SURE 

This  section  provides  a  preliminary  analysis  of  the  impact  of  SURE  on  employment,  public 
finances, and other effects.  

4.1 Estimating the impact of SURE on employment 

Changes in the unemployment rates in beneficiary Member States are examined to provide 
a  first  indicative  assessment  of  the  impact  of  pandemic-related  policy  support  measures, 
including  SURE.  The  purpose  of  SURE  is  to  help  Member  States  preserve  employment  of 
workers and the self-employed across the EU during the COVID-19 pandemic, thus  protecting 
citizens and facilitating a swift recovery when the pandemic abates. While it is difficult to design 
a  counterfactual  scenario  of  labour  market  performance  in  the  absence  of  SURE,  the  analysis 
presented here examines the relationship between output and unemployment since the pandemic 

21 

 
 
 
 
 
unfolded.  The  results  should  be  interpreted  with  caution,  since  the  output-employment 
relationship is impacted by a wide range of factors, including SURE.  

The increase in unemployment rates in 2020 across beneficiary Member States was clearly 
milder than during the global financial crisis, despite the more severe drop in GDP in 2020 
(see  Graph  8).  According  to  the  Commission’s  Winter  2021  Forecast,  real  GDP  growth  is 
forecast to drop by 5.8% in the countries that benefitted from SURE funding in 2020. This drop 
is larger than the one observed during the peak of the global financial crisis in 2009. At the same 
time,  the  unemployment  rate  is  projected  to  increase  by  only  0.7  percentage  points  in  2020, 
compared with an increase of 2.6 percentage points in 2009.  

Graph 8: Changes in real GDP and unemployment in beneficiary Member States in 2009 
vs. 2020 

Note: The graph shows simple averages of SURE beneficiary Member States. The 2020 unemployment rate is the 
average of the monthly unemployment rates for 2020. 
Source: Eurostat; 2020 GDP from Commission Winter Forecast 2021.  

The  responsiveness  of  unemployment  to  changes  in  output  in  2020  was  weaker  than 
expected  in  beneficiary  Member  States  (see  Graphs  9,  10).29  The  swift  and  sizeable  policy 
measures  taken  in  2020  to  address  the  crisis  mitigated  the  impact  of  the  fall  in  output  on 
unemployment.  Therefore,  the  increase  in  unemployment  rates  was,  in  most  countries,  lower 
than expected.30   

29 The responsiveness of changes in economic growth on unemployment is often referred in the economic literature 
as  “Okun’s  Law”.  More  of  an  empirical  “rule  of  thumb”  than  a  relationship  grounded  in  theory,  Okun’s  Law 
suggests that a decline in output growth of between 2% and 3% is associated with a one percentage point increase in 
the  unemployment  rate  (see  Okun,  A.M.,  “Potential  GNP:  Its  measurement  and  signiﬁcance”,  Proceedings  of  the 
Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 1962). 
30 In Italy, the unemployment rate even declined in 2020. 

22 

-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123420092020Real GDP growthChange in unemployment rate 
 
 
 
                                                           
Graph  9:  Actual  vs.  expected  changes  in 
unemployment 
beneficiary 
rates 
Member States in 2019 vs. 2020 

in 

Graph  10:  Actual  vs.  expected  changes  in 
unemployment  rates  by  beneficiary  Member 
State in 2020 

Note:  y-axis:  The  expected  change  in  unemployment  rates  corresponds  to  the  prediction  stemming  from  a  panel 
regression model for beneficiary Member States (Graph 9) and a country-specific regression model (Graph 10) for 
the period 1999 to 2019. The analysis is based on an Okun’s law approach, where the dependent variable stands for 
the change in unemployment rate and the independent variable refers to the real GDP growth rate. The specification 
controls  for  (non-time  varying)  country-specific  features  of  the  labour  market  via  country-fixed  effects  and  for 
sample-common  factors  via  time  fixed  effects.  The  results  appear  robust  to  the  use  of  additional  independent 
variables,  such  as  employment  protection  legislation  and  the  change  in  the  labour  force  participation  rate.  The 
specification  controls  for  the  endogeneity  of  output  by  using  a  first-difference  GMM  estimator.  Croatia  is  not 
included  for  data  availability  reasons.  Compared  with  recent  Okun’s  law  studies,31  the  merit  of  this  analysis  is  to 
focus on SURE beneficiaries only and try to relate the difference between actual and expected unemployment to the 
amount of SURE support.   
Source: Commission Autumn Forecast 2020, 2020 aggregate unemployment from Eurostat (see note to Graph 8). 

A  key  reason  for  the  milder  increase  in  unemployment  rates  in  2020  were  the  policy 
support measures including SURE (Graph 11). Based on preliminary evidence, the lower than 
expected  increase  in  unemployment  can  be  partially  attributed  to  the  widespread  use  of  short-
time  work  schemes,  including  in  those  Member  States  benefitting  from  the  SURE  instrument. 
This  helped  maintain  employment  and  limited  the  rise  of  unemployment.  Other  factors  are 
related to the fact that people have been unable to, or were discouraged from, actively seeking 
work due to the shutdown of large parts of the economy. 

31 For example, Chapter 3 of European Commission (2020): Labour Market and Wage Developments in 2020. 

23 

-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.020192020ActualExpected-10123456ESPTELCYITPLBGLVBESKLTSNCZHUMTIEROActualExpected 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Graph 11: Relationship  between the change in unemployment rate in 2020 and approved 
SURE funding 

Note: y-axis: The expected change in unemployment rates stems from the country-specific regression model shown 
in Graph 10 and explained in the note to Graphs 9 and 10.  
Source: Commission Autumn Forecast 2020. 

4.2  Drivers of SURE impacts: a discussion and survey-based results 

The impact of SURE goes beyond preserving jobs. Three additional effects can be identified: 
improving  confidence  across  the  EU,  the  EU’s  support  for  and  encouragement  of  the  use  of 
short-time work schemes, and the enabling of Member States to spend more than otherwise on 
employment support. However, it is difficult to estimate these effects empirically. 

Firstly, SURE has improved general confidence in the EU’s ability to respond effectively to 
an unprecedented crisis. The capacity of Member States to agree on SURE – a new, innovative 
type  of  financial  assistance  under  Article  122  TFEU  with  a  strong  social  dimension  and 
economic  rationale  –  and  the  voluntary  provision  of  guarantees  to  the  EU  to  help  ensure  its 
financial solidity sent a strong signal on the EU’s ability to respond effectively and swiftly to a 
new type of crisis. It also contributed to the positive dynamic for the subsequent announcement 
of  the  Next  Generation  EU  instrument.  In  particular,  in  May  2020,  the  Commission  tabled  a 
proposal for a Recovery and Resilience Facility, which was eventually adopted by the Council 
and European Parliament in early February 2021. This collective capacity to rapidly respond to 
the crisis ensuing from the COVID-19 outbreak and the creation of new emergency instruments 
including SURE likely  contributed to  supporting  the confidence of  economic agents  in  the EU 
and reducing the interest rate spread for Member States’ sovereign borrowing and improving the 
EU’s growth outlook.32 In this context, SURE could be seen as an instrument to mobilise fiscal 

32 The ECB’s expanded asset purchases under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme clearly also played a 
role in reducing uncertainty in markets. Furthermore, according to the 7 January 2021 ECB Economic Bulletin, the 

24 

ESITPLPTELCYBEBGSICZLVSKIEHULTMTROR² = 0.3-5-4-3-2-10120123Approved SURE funding(% GDP)Actual minus expected   
 
 
 
                                                           
policy  support  and,  in  this  way,  ensure  that  a  supportive  fiscal  stance  and  accommodative 
monetary policy work together in tackling the fallout of the crisis. 

Secondly, through SURE, the EU has supported and encouraged the use of short-time work 
policies  by  Member  States.  By  providing  financial  assistance  to  Member  States  to  help  them 
finance  short-time  work  schemes  for  businesses  affected  by  the  pandemic,  as  well  as  similar 
measures notably for the self-employed, SURE encouraged Member States to pursue these types 
of policies, also in line with the 2020 Employment Guidelines. This instrument, along with the 
support  provided  through  the  European  structural  and  investment  funds,  notably  the  European 
Social  Fund,  and  through  the  Coronavirus  Response  Investment  Initiatives  (CRII  and  CRII+), 
enabled Member States to be more ambitious in the policies they introduced. 

A  majority  of  beneficiary  Member  States  indicated  that  SURE  played  a  role  in  their 
decision  to  adopt  a  new  short-time  work  scheme  or  to  modify  an  existing  scheme.33  Nine 
Member States set up a new short-time work scheme in response to the COVID-19 crisis34 and 
four  Member  States  modified  an  existing  short-time  work  scheme35.  The  majority  of  these 
schemes  had  been  introduced  or  modified  in  March  2020,  shortly  before  the  Commission 
proposed the SURE instrument. Since then, new schemes were introduced in Hungary, Greece, 
Romania and Slovenia; pre-existing schemes have been further modified by Italy and Spain (see 
Table A.1 in Annex 1)36.  

SURE  also  enabled  some  Member  States  to  be  more  ambitious  on  measures  similar  to 
short-time work schemes. All Member States (with the exception of Bulgaria and Croatia) also 
requested  SURE  financial  assistance  for  schemes  similar  to  short-time  work,  which  includes 
support to the self-employed, as well as other job retention measures. Some Member States had 
introduced these measures before SURE was proposed, and some after.37 A majority of Member 
States surveyed introduced new schemes similar to short-time work in response to the potential 
availability  of  financing  from  SURE.38  Moreover,  in  three  Member  States,  the  availability  of 
SURE financing contributed to an increase in the budget allocated for these schemes.  

in 

improvement 

fiscal  prospects  as  well  as 

Next Generation EU (NGEU) and SURE programmes are likely to have contributed to a compression of spreads via 
an 
risk  sentiment: 
in  Member  States’  growth  and 
(https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/html/eb202008.en.html).  
33 To better understand the possible role played by SURE in the creation and use of short-time  work schemes and 
similar measures at national level in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Commission directly solicited the 
views of Member State authorities, through a questionnaire submitted to the Employment Committee. Out of the 19 
Member States that have applied for support under SURE, 15 have provided answers to the questionnaire. 
34  Bulgaria,  Cyprus,  Greece,  Croatia,  Hungary,  Lithuania,  Latvia,  Romania  and  Slovenia.  Hungary  decided  to 
finance its new short-time scheme introduced in response to the COVID-19 crisis relying on the European Structural 
and Investment Funds in the context of the CRII and the CRII+, and did not request SURE financing for it.  
35 Belgium, Spain, Ireland and Italy. Ireland did not request SURE support for the financing of its existing short-time 
work scheme (established under the ‘jobseeker’s benefit’). 
36 Table II.1 relies on the information submitted by Member States in their requests for SURE financial support. It 
provides an overview of the legislation dates of short-time work schemes and similar measures.  
37 These ‘similar’ schemes were legislated before 2 April (in Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Poland and Slovenia), after 2 
April  (in  Spain,  Hungary  and  Czechia),  or  at  various  moments  as  the  crisis  progressed,  between  March  and  July 
2020 (in Belgium, Italy, Lithuania, Latvia, Malta and Romania, see Table II.1). 
38 See footnote 33.  

25 

 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                           
Thirdly, as an early element of the EU policy response, SURE underpinned Member States 
confidence  to  undertake  larger  borrowing  and  spending  than  they  otherwise  would  have. 
SURE  also  enabled  them  to  maintain  or  step  up  their  public  expenditure  on  supporting 
employment. This is particularly true when financing is available at very low rates and offered at 
a sufficiently long maturity, as SURE is. This additional borrowing can either be on short-time 
work schemes or other pandemic-related policies, as financial assistance under SURE would also 
allow  them  to  reallocate  the  funding  they  had  planned  for  short-time  work  schemes  to  other 
broader policy areas to tackle the socio-economic impact of the pandemic.  

A  majority  of  beneficiary  Member  States  indicated  that  SURE  support  had  a  role  in 
temporarily increasing the coverage and generosity of short-time work schemes and similar 
measures,  and  the  overall  funding  of  the  policies  to  address  the  COVID-19  crisis.39  Six 
Member States  indicated that the budget  of their respective short-time work schemes had been 
increased  after  the  Commission  proposed  the  creation  of  SURE.  In  two  of  these  cases,  SURE 
was considered to have had a high degree of influence on the decision. 

4.3  Zooming in on the direct financial effect: estimated interest rate savings  

A number of Member States have made savings on interest payments by receiving financial 
assistance through SURE. SURE loans offered Member States lower interest rates than if they 
issued sovereign debt themselves to finance short-time work schemes or similar measures. The 
SURE social bonds were issued at very low rates, even at long maturities, due to the EU’s AAA 
credit rating and the liquidity of the bonds. 

Member States are estimated to have saved a total of EUR 5.8 billion during the first four 
issuances  of  SURE,  i.e.  up  to  the  disbursement  on  2  February  2021.  This  amount  will 
increase  with  further  disbursements.  Therefore,  the  estimates  shown  probably  correspond  to  a 
lower  bound  and  will  rise  with  the  EUR  36.8  billion  still  to  be  disbursed.  Table  7  provides  a 
breakdown  of  interest  savings  by  Member  State,  while  Box  1  explains  the  methodology  in 
further detail.40 

Box 1: The Calculation of Interest Rate Savings 

Of  the  EUR  53.5  billion  issued  in  the  first  four  transactions,  the  Commission  was  able  to 
obtain  favourable  terms,  with  yields  ranging  from  -0.51%  to  +0.32%,  depending  on  the 
maturity and the date of issuance. These terms were passed directly onto Member States via 
back-to-back lending. Member States’ own funding terms  at  the time of disbursement were 
generally  less  favourable  than  those  obtained  by  the  Commission.  Therefore,  the  loans 
disbursed under SURE generated interest savings for Member States.  

39 See footnote 33. 
40 SURE has been one of the first elements of the unprecedented response of the EU to an unprecedented crisis. This 
overall response has been instrumental in keeping yield on public debt exceptionally low in the Member States that 
are the largest beneficiaries from SURE. These estimates exclude any possible additional confidence effect that new 
emergency instruments, including SURE, may have had on the confidence of economic agents and the interest rate 
spread for Member States’ sovereign borrowing (see footnote 32 above). 

26 

 
 
 
                                                           
To  compute  the  savings,  it  is  assumed  that,  in  the  absence  of  loans  from  SURE,  Member 
States  would  have  issued  bonds  with  the  same  characteristics  (i.e.  maturity  and  coupon)  as 
the EU SURE bonds on the day the loans were disbursed. The difference between the issue 
price of each EU SURE bond and the issue price of this counterfactual bond,  multiplied by 
the  amount  of  the  loan,  provides  an  estimate  of  the  interest  savings.  This  difference  is  a 
function  of  the  spreads  between  national  and  EU  SURE  yield  curves  at  the  time  of 
disbursement and the maturity structure of each loan.  

The average maturity of the SURE loans is below but close to 15 years in all Member States, 
and the average spread between national yields and EU SURE yields is around 0.8 pp. As a 
result, the total interest savings across the lifetime of the loans are estimated to be EUR 5.8 
billion,  or  around  11%  of  the  amount  disbursed,  in  the  15  Member  States  that  received  a 
disbursement up to 2 February 2021 (see Table 6). Member States with either higher spreads 
or  larger  disbursements  benefitted  the  most  from  the  favourable  terms  achieved  by  the 
Commission.  

Table 7: Interest Rate Savings by Member State 

Member 
State 

Belgium 
Cyprus 
Greece 
Spain 
Croatia 
Hungary* 
Italy 
Lithuania 
Latvia 
Malta 
Poland 
Portugal 
Romania 
Slovenia 
Slovakia 
Total 

Amount 
disbursed 
(EUR bn) 
4.0 
0.5 
2.7 
11.0 
0.5 
0.5 
21.0 
0.3 
0.2 
0.1 
5.3 
3.0 
3.0 
1.1 
0.3 
53.5 

Average 
spread  

Average 
maturity 

Interest savings 
(EUR bn) 

0.11 
0.64 
0.74 
0.44 
1.16 
2.53 
0.98 
0.10 
0.19 
0.63 
0.41 
0.57 
2.19 
0.23 
0.09 
0.76 

14.9 
14.7 
14.8 
14.9 
13.3 
14.7 
14.0 
13.3 
14.8 
13.3 
14.9 
14.6 
14.6 
14.8 
14.6 
14.5 

0.098 
0.048 
0.264 
0.850 
0.082 
0.154 
2.835 
0.005 
0.006 
0.012 
0.355 
0.242 
0.824 
0.047 
0.004 
5.826 

Interest Savings 
(% amount 
disbursed) 
2.4 
10.1 
9.7 
7.7 
16.1 
30.5 
13.5 
1.8 
3.2 
9.7 
6.7 
8.1 
27.5 
4.3 
1.3 
10.9 

Note: Interest savings are computed bond by bond, and summed across issue dates and maturities. Member States 
have  borrowed  from  the  EU  at  different  average  maturities.  For  the  Member  States  for  whom  a  large  share  of 
borrowing was made with very long or long maturities, total interest savings tend to be higher than the product of 
the average spread and the average maturity. This is because the spread and the maturity are generally positively 
correlated, i.e. EU SURE yield curves tend to be flatter than national yield curves.  
* No yield curve for euro-denominated bonds is available for Hungary. The yield curve in national currency was 
used instead. 

27 

 
 
 
 
 
5  THE CONTINUATION OF THE EXCEPTIONAL OCCURRENCES THAT JUSTIFY THE APPLICATION 

OF THE SURE REGULATION  

The  SURE  Regulation also  requires  the  Commission  to  report  on  the  continuation  of  the 
exceptional  occurrences  that  justify  the  application  of  the  SURE  instrument.41  With  the 
resurgence  of  infections  since  the  autumn,  the  exceptional  circumstances  that  necessitated  the 
introduction  of  SURE  and  emergency  employment  measures  to  support  citizens  remain.  A 
resurgence of COVID-19 cases has beset Europe since autumn 2020, including the emergence of 
new,  more  virulent  strains,  which  has  led  to  a  significant  tightening  of  restrictions.  As  of  25 
February  2021,  the  14-day  incidence  of  the  virus  was  283  per  100,000  inhabitants  in  the 
EU/EEA,  less  than  half  the  level  seen  in  November  2020,  but  still  significantly  above  the 
incidence of last summer when restrictions were first eased.42 Hospitals and intensive care units 
have been at or close to maximum capacity in many Member States in early 2021.  

The  renewed  tightening  of  restrictions  has  put  the  recovery  on  hold after  the  rebound  in 
economic activity recorded in the third quarter of 2020. While the economic impact has not 
been  as  severe  as  that  experienced  in  the  first  wave  of  the  pandemic,  due  to  the  use  of  more 
targeted restrictions and the adaption of businesses and individuals to the restrictions, there has 
nevertheless been a halt in the recovery. In the fourth quarter of 2020, real GDP contracted by 
0.4%  quarter-on-quarter  in  the  EU,  after  increasing  by  11.5%  in  the  third  quarter.  With 
containment  measures  still  in  place  across  Europe,  a  further  contraction  is  forecast  in  the  first 
quarter  of  2021.  The  Commission’s  Winter  Forecast,  published  on  11  February  2021,  projects 
real  GDP  growth  of  3.7%  for  the  EU  in  2021,  following  an  unprecedented  decline  of  6.3%  in 
2020. 43 Therefore, the GDP level at the end of 2021 would remain 2.8 percentage points below 
its pre-crisis level of 2019. 

The robust recovery in industry contrasts with weak services activity.  Industrial production 
continued  to  recover  in  the  EU  in  the  fourth  quarter  of  2020,  nearly  returning  to  its  pre-crisis 
levels.  By  contrast,  following  its  full  recovery  in  the  summer,  retail  sales  weakened  again  in 
autumn  as  restrictions  were  tightened  across  the  EU,  while  some  services,  e.g.  tourism,  never 
recovered from the initial shock in March 2020. 

The  latest  restrictions  have  once  again  heavily  impacted  labour-intensive  sectors  such  as 
hospitality,  entertainment  and  tourism.  The  sanitary  restrictions  continue  to  affect  these 
labour-intensive sectors heavily. The unmet need of employment, i.e. labour market slack, points 
to  severe  impacts.44  Moreover,  the  unemployment  rate  is  projected  to  increase  in  2021  as 

41 Article 14(1) of the SURE Regulation.  
42 Data taken from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control: 
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/data-national-14-day-notification-rate-covid-19  
43  European  Economic  Forecast,  Winter  2021  (Interim),  European  Economy  Institutional  Papers  N°144  - 
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/ip144_en_1.pdf  
44  Labour  market  slack  is  defined  as  the  sum  of  unemployed  persons,  underemployed  part-time  workers,  persons 
seeking  work  but  not  immediately  available  and  persons  available  to  work  but  not  seeking,  expressed  as  a 
percentage of the extended labour force. See European Commission Winter Forecast 2021 for further detail. 

28 

 
 
                                                           
employment supports are unwound  and people  can actively  seek work as economies  are set  to 
reopen.45  

While activity is expected to pick up moderately in the second quarter and more vigorously 
in  the  third,  significant  uncertainty  and  elevated  risks  surrounding  the  economic  outlook 
remain. Positive risks are mainly related to the possibility that the vaccination process leads to a 
faster  than  currently  forecast  easing  of  containment  measures  and  therefore  an  earlier  and 
stronger  recovery.  Economic  growth  could  also  benefit  from  strong  pent-up  demand  thanks  to 
historically  high  household  savings,  low  financing  costs,  and  supportive  policies.  On  the 
downside,  the  new  strains  or  a  slow  vaccine  rollout  could  delay  the  lifting  of  containment 
measures, with  negative  effects  on confidence leading to  further precautionary savings and the 
delay of investment decisions. This underlines the need for not withdrawing policy support to the 
economy and employment, to avoid deeper scars in the European economic and social fabric.46 
Relevant  policy  measures  include  the  short-time  work  schemes  eligible  for  SURE  support  as 
well  as  those  promoting  job  creation  and  job-to-job  transitions,  along  the  lines  of  the 
Commission Recommendation on Effective Active Support to Employment47. 

SURE  is,  by  design,  a  temporary  instrument  and  over  90%  of  its  resources  have  already 
been  committed.  Maintaining  policies  aimed  at  keeping  people  in  their  current  jobs  beyond 
what is justified by the circumstances may indeed hold back rather than promote the recovery. If 
the emergency phase recedes over the course of 2021, the situation may demand other measures, 
notably  active  labour  market  policies  such  as  hiring  incentives  and  entrepreneurial  support, 
upskilling and reskilling opportunities, and enhanced support by employment services. 

6  REPORTING OBLIGATIONS UNDER THE EU SURE SOCIAL BOND FRAMEWORK  

This section provides the relevant reporting under Section 2.4 of the EU SURE Social Bond 
Framework (the Framework). This includes reporting on the allocation of SURE proceeds by 
beneficiary Member State and by envisaged main type of Eligible Social Expenditure as well as 
the impact reporting. 

The  introduction  of  SURE  has  also  formed  part  of  the  EU’s  commitment  to  sustainable 
finance, furthering the development of the market for social bonds. On 7 October 2020, the 
Commission announced that it would issue all SURE bonds as social bonds and adopted the EU 
Social  Bond  Framework.  Social  bonds  offer  investors  an  asset  whose  proceeds  are  used  to 
promote positive social outcomes.  

45 As per European Commission Autumn Forecast 2020. 
46 The Commission’s Communication to the Council (COM (2021)105), One year since the outbreak of COVID-19: 
fiscal policy response, notes that “a premature withdrawal of fiscal support should be avoided. Fiscal policy is an 
effective  tool,  especially  in  an  uncertain  environment.  Risks  of  an  early  withdrawal  are  higher  than  the  risks 
associated with keeping support measures in place for too long.” 
47 https://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=23699&langId=en 

29 

 
 
 
                                                           
The Framework provides assurances to investors that it is compliant with the ICMA Social 
Bond Principles.48 The latter are set to ensure that the proceeds of SURE will be used to fund 
targeted social policy measures. Section 2.4 of the Framework sets out a commitment to report 
on  a  number  of  reporting  items  to  ensure  transparency  in  this  respect,  specifically  on  the 
allocation and impact of SURE proceeds. 

Firstly,  with  regard  to  allocation,  the  breakdown  of  SURE  proceeds  by  beneficiary 
Member  State  and  by  envisaged  main  type  of  Eligible  Social  Expenditure  should  be 
reported. The breakdown of proceeds granted and disbursed to each Member State is provided 
in Section II (ii) of this report. As of February 2021, five Member States have received the total 
amount granted to them by the Council, two Member States have received approximately three 
quarters and eight Member States have received approximately half. Section III.1 describes the 
allocation  by  eligible  expenditure  type,  i.e.  labour  market  vs  health-related  measures,  for  all 
SURE  beneficiary  Member  States.  Overall,  EUR  94  billion  or  95%  of  public  expenditure  is 
allocated  to  labour  market  measures.  This  proportion  remains  unchanged  when  Bulgaria, 
Czechia and Ireland are excluded, who have not yet received disbursements. 

Secondly, the Commission committed to report on the impact of SURE proceeds based on 
the information beneficiary Member States must provide on the implementation of planned 
public expenditure every six months. This could include, for example, data on the number of 
people  and  firms  covered  or  supported  by  the  funded  policies.  The  Framework  notes  that  this 
reporting will depend on the quality and granularity of information reported by Member States. 
Section III.2 of this report presents estimates of the percentage of employees and self-employed 
covered by the instrument. An estimated one quarter of employees and self-employed have been 
supported by SURE across beneficiary Member States in 2020.   

The  impact  of  SURE  is  also  analysed  in  Section  IV  of  this  report.  It  is  shown  that 
unemployment did not rise as much as expected in 2020 across beneficiary Member States, given 
the significant fall in output that was experienced, which points to the contribution of SURE to 
preventing  job  losses.  Other  positive  impacts  of SURE,  including  improving  confidence  in  the 
EU economy, encouraging ambitious short-time work schemes, and interest savings for Member 
States, are also discussed there.  

Overall,  the  proceeds  of  SURE  that  have  been  granted  and  disbursed  to  Member  States 
have  been  allocated  towards  public  expenditure  on  short-time  work  schemes  and  similar 
measures.  As  such,  they  have  been  used  to  fund  social  policy  measures,  in  line  with  the  very 
purpose of social bonds.   

https://www.icmagroup.org/assets/documents/Regulatory/Green-Bonds/June-2020/Social-Bond-PrinciplesJune-

48 
2020-090620.pdf  

30 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Annex 1: Overview of short-time work schemes and similar measures 

Table A.1: Short-time work schemes and similar measures by Member State 

Country 

Short-time work schemes 

Schemes similar to short-time work (legislation dates, 
where available, based on SURE support requests) 

New or existing 
scheme (s) 
Existing scheme 
extended/modifi
ed due to 
COVID-19 

BE 

BG 

New scheme 

Date of 
legislation 

30 March 
2020 

30 March 
(original act) 
and 2 July 
2020 
(extension) 

CY 

New schemes 

(date not 
available) 

Name 

‘Chômage 
temporaire/tijdelijke 
werkloosheid’ 

Type of 
scheme 

Permanent 

For self-employed 

Supporting 
labour costs 

Protecting 
employees 

20, 23 March, 6, 7, 
10 April, 12 June, 
20 July 2020 

23 April, 14 May, 
19 June 2020 

7 April, 13 May 
2020 

60-40 scheme 

Temporary 

- 

- 

- 

Scheme supporting 
Companies for Total 
Suspension of their 
Operations, Scheme 
supporting Companies for 
Partial Suspension of their 
Operations 

Temporary 

Yes (date not 
available) 

Yes (date not 
available) 

Yes (date not 
available) 

CZ 

New scheme 

31 March 
2020 

The Antivirus Programme – 
Options A and B 

Temporary 

19, 26, 31 March, 
9 April, 4, 18 May 
2020  

8 June 2020 

EL 

New schemes 

14 March 
2020; 14 June 
2020. 

‘Synergasia’ Short-time 
work scheme; Special 
allowance provided to 
employees whose labour 
contracts have been 
suspended 

Temporary 

20 March 2020 

14 March 2020 

31 

- 

- 

 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
Country 

Short-time work schemes 

Schemes similar to short-time work (legislation dates, 
where available, based on SURE support requests) 

New or existing 
scheme (s) 
Existing scheme 
extended/modifi
ed due to 
COVID-19 

ES 

HR 

New schemes 

HU 

New scheme 
(supported by 
the ESF, not 
eligible for 
SURE support) 

Date of 
legislation 

17 March, 12 
May, 26 June 
2020 

30 March 
2020, and a 
continuation 
approved in 
the 2nd half of 
2020 

10 April, 17 
June 2020 

Name 

Type of 
scheme 

For self-employed 

Supporting 
labour costs 

Protecting 
employees 

‘Expediente de Regulación 
Temporal de Empleo’ 

Permanent 

17 March, 31 
March, 26 June 
2020 

12, 17 March, 21 
April, 12 May, 26 
June 2020 

Job preservation subsidies 
in sectors affected by 
COVID-19; Aid for 
reduced working hours 

Temporary 

- 

- 

- 

Short-time work  scheme 

Temporary 

13 May, 22 June,  

18, 23 March 

23 March 

IE 

Existing scheme 

- 

(Partial) Jobseeker’s benefit  Permanent 

 - 

‘Temporary wage 
subsidy scheme’, 
26 March 2020 

 - 

Existing scheme 
extended/modifi
ed due to 
COVID-19 

New scheme 

New scheme 

17 March 
2020, 19 May 
2020 and 
further 
extensions 
 19 March 
2020 
 26 March 
2020 

IT 

LT 

LV 

‘Cassa integrazione 
guadagni’ 

Permanent 

17 March 2020, 19 
May 2020 and 
further extensions 

Subsidy for wages during 
idle time  
Compensation for idle 
workers 

Temporary 

19 March 2020, 1 
August 2020 

 15 May 2020 

Temporary 

31 March 2020 

 21 March 2020 

MT 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

 ‘Temporary wage 
subsidy scheme’, 
13 April 2020 

25 March 2020 

32 

 
 
  
  
 
 
 
  
  
  
  
Country 

Short-time work schemes 

Schemes similar to short-time work (legislation dates, 
where available, based on SURE support requests) 

New or existing 
scheme (s) 

Date of 
legislation 

Name 

Type of 
scheme 

For self-employed 

Supporting 
labour costs 

Protecting 
employees 

PL 

New scheme 

2 March 

Subsidies for short-time 
work 

Temporary 

2 March 

2 March 

- 

PT 

Existing scheme 
(temporarily) 
extended/modifi
ed due to 
COVID-19 

RO 

New schemes 

SI 

New schemes 

SK 

Existing scheme 
extended/modifi
ed due to 
COVID-19 

26 March 
2020 

Support for the 
maintenance of 
employment 

Permanent 

13 March, 6 June 
2020 

26 March, 6 June, 
19 June, 30 July, 
31 December 2020 

13 March, 26 
March, 19 June, 30 
July, 31 December 
2020 

21 March 
2020, 29 May 
2020, 7 
August 2020 
28 March 
2020, 30 May 
2020  

(date not 
available) 

Technical unemployment, 
flexible work arrangements 

Temporary 

18 March 2020, 7 
August 2020 

- 

Wage compensation job-
retention scheme, and short-
time work scheme 

Temporary 

28 March 2020 

28 March 2020 

Short-time work scheme 

Temporary 

Yes (date not 
available) 

 - 

- 

- 

 - 

33