COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Forging a climate-resilient Europe - The new EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change
Date: 2021-02-24
Institutions: Directorate-General for Climate Action, European Commission
Subjects: adaptation to climate change, climate change, environmental cooperation, environmental impact, environmental risk prevention, international cooperation, natural disaster, reduction of gas emissions, water protection

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   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 24.2.2021  SWD(2021) 26 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT  Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Forging a climate-resilient Europe - The new EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change {COM(2021) 82 final} - {SEC(2021) 89 final} - {SWD(2021) 25 final}  
 
 
The  impacts  of  climate  change  are  being  felt  here  and  now.  Climate  change  is  already 
having pervasive impacts on people, the planet and prosperity. Temperatures have repeatedly 
broken long-term records in recent years. The last five years were the hottest on record, with 
heatwaves,  droughts  and  wildfires  across  Europe.  A  string  of  record-breaking  heatwaves 
made July 2019 the hottest month ever recorded and July 2020 a very close second.  

Recent projections estimate global warming of up to 4°C under current climate policies, 
and around 3°C if all countries meet the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets 
submitted  by  end  2020  under  the  Paris  Agreement.  Globally,  greenhouse  gas  emissions  are 
not  on  track  to  achieve  the  temperature  goals  set  in  the  Agreement.  Even  stopping  all 
greenhouse  gas  emissions would not  prevent  the climate impacts  that are  already occurring, 
which are likely to continue for decades. This accelerating pace of climate change impacts is 
one of the drivers of the need for the EU’s new adaptation strategy. 

The  European  Commission  announced  the  new  adaptation  strategy  as  a  key  priority 
under the European Green Deal, recognising adaptation as a crucial component of the long-
term global response to climate change. It is a clear call for action, as Europe is underprepared 
for  the  increasing  intensity  and  frequency  of  the  impacts  of  climate  change.  It  also  anchors 
adaptation  firmly  in  the  proposal  for  a  European  Climate  Law  to  create  a  framework  for 
achieving climate neutrality in the EU by 2050, and in the governance of the Energy Union 
and  climate  action.  Although  the  recent  evaluation  of  the  2013  EU  adaptation  strategy 
demonstrated that steady progress has been made on all fronts, it identified new and evolving 
problem drivers posing a significant threat to our way of life, with severe impacts on people’s 
health and wellbeing as well as on livelihoods and assets. International developments confirm 
the urgent need to step up action on adaptation, as reflected in the Paris Agreement, the 2030 
Sustainable Development Goals and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. 

The aim of this new strategy is to create a framework to step up action by addressing the 
four key problems identified: 

1) there are gaps in data and methodologies to underpins decision making, due to insufficient 
knowledge and awareness on climate change adaptation, risk, vulnerability and resilience; 

2)  weaknesses  in  planning,  monitoring,  reporting  and  evaluating  climate  change  adaptation, 
including the low priority and commitment given to adaptation in some regions, which have 
led to the generally slow pace of adoption and implementation of local adaptation strategies; 

3) the slow pace action  due to inadequate public and private-sector investment, and a lack of 
awareness or implementation of cost-effective solutions, which all hinder action; and lastly, 

4) climate impacts generated outside the EU, which the 2013 adaptation strategy did not take 
into account or address, with international policy developments and increasing spillovers.  

With  the  goal  of  stepping  up  action  to  increase  climate  resilience  and  adapt  to  the 
unavoidable  impacts  of  climate  change,  the  new  strategy  will  pursue  these  objectives:  1) 
improve  knowledge  of  climate  impacts  and  solutions;  2)  step  up  planning  and  climate  risk 
assessment; 3) accelerate adaptation action and 4) build climate resilience globally. Only by 
achieving  progress  on  all  these  four  objectives,  can  the  EU  move  closer  to  its  overarching 
goal of a climate-resilient society.  

Two  policy  options  (made  up  of  a  representative  selection  of  the  most  impactful  measures 
designed for the new strategy) were assessed against their potential impact and achievement 
of these objectives, compared to a baseline to continue action under the 2013 strategy: 

  Option 1 (more ambition) proposes making ambitious changes to both the form and 
nature  of  the  eight  actions  in  the  2013  strategy.  It  also  proposes  a  wide  range  of  new 

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measures  to  deepen  their  impact.  This  represents  a  clear  step  up  in  ambition,  with 
commensurate  increases  in  visibility  and  effectiveness  for  EU-level  action  while 
remaining well within the policy scope of the 2013 strategy.  
  Option 2 (more ambition and change) includes the changes proposed under Option 
1  and  adds  6  new  actions  to  the  strategy,  each  of  which  include  a  number  of  new 
measures.  This  represents  a  higher  level  of  political  ambition  in  EU  adaptation  policy, 
including  in  its  international  commitments.  It  expands  into  thematic  areas  of  prime 
importance (e.g. innovation, ecosystem services, closing the climate protection gap) and 
by  seeking  to  add  greater  policy  coherence  to  EU  actions  on  adaptation,  including 
internationally, it constitutes a clear step up from the baseline.  

Option 2 performs best on almost all measures and is therefore the preferred option. The 
assessment was made in the context of different  climate (temperature) scenarios, and shows 
robustness  to  this  sensitivity  check.  Economic  modelling  and  qualitative  analyses  estimate 
that  it  would  yield  the  greatest  benefits  for  economic  welfare,  reducing  losses  to  economic 
welfare  and  employment  compared  to  the  baseline.  It  would  also  generate  a  more  positive 
impact  overall  than  Option  1  on  the  economic  impacts  of  competitiveness,  trade  and 
investment, and innovation and research. Option 2 identifies positive social impacts in terms 
of  income  distribution,  welfare  and  social  inclusion,  as  well  as  major  positive  impacts  for 
public  health  and  safety.  The  assessment  of  Option  2  was  also  positive  on  environmental 
impacts,  in  terms  of  its  impact  on  climate  resilience,  the  quality  and  availability  of  natural 
resources,  reducing  pollution,  and  on  biodiversity  and  ecosystem  services.  Lastly,  it  was 
assessed  to  generate  considerably  more  positive  impacts  in  non-EU  countries  and 
international  relations.  The  benefits  of  both  options  increase  at  higher  temperature  (where 
climate damages are higher), but Option 2 remains best. 

The  strategy  proposes  monitoring  and  evaluation  indicators  (for  the  strategy  and  for 
adaptation in general),  acknowledging the  complexity and uncertainty inherent  in  tracking 
adaptation  and  climate  resilience.  The  recommendations  on  monitoring  and  evaluation  also 
highlight some of the next steps needed to further advance and refine this approach as part of 
the process to implement the strategy. 

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