Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions : a thematic report to support an ex-ante impact assessment of the EU adaptation strategy.
Date: 2021-02-23
Institutions: Directorate-General for Climate Action
Subjects: Azores, Canary Islands, Caribbean Islands, EU law, EU strategy, Indian Ocean, Madeira, Treaty on the Functioning of the EU, adaptation to climate change, economic consequence, environmental impact, impact study, peripheral region, report, social impact

Vulnerability and impact 
assessment of the EU’s 
outermost regions 

A thematic report to support an 
ex-ante impact assessment of 
the EU Adaptation Strategy 

mmmll 

Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions

EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Directorate-General for Climate Action 
Directorate A — International, Mainstreaming 
and Policy Coordination, Unit A3 — Adaptation 

Contact: Unit A.3 — Adaptation 

E-mail: CLIMA-CLIMATE-CHANGE-
ADAPTATION@ec.europa.eu

European Commission 
B-1049 Brussels

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Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Disclaimer 

The information and views set out in this report are 
those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect 
the  official  opinion  of  the  Commission.  The 
Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the 
data included in this study. Neither the Commission 
nor  any  person  acting  on  the  Commission’s  behalf 
may be held responsible for the use which may be 
made of the information contained therein. 

Please cite this report as: Clémence Moinier and Richard J. Smithers. 2020. 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions: a thematic report to 
support an ex-ante impact assessment of the EU Adaptation Strategy. European 
Commission, Brussels.  

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Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Table of contents 

1 

Introduction .............................................................................................................. 8 

2  Method ......................................................................................................................... 8 
2.1  Review of information ................................................................................................... 8 
2.2  Rating of vulnerabilities and potential impacts ....................................................... 9 

3 

Presentation of the results of the assessment .......................................... 10 

4.2 

4.1.1 
4.1.2 
4.1.3 

4  Macaronesian archipelagos ............................................................................... 11 
4.1  Regional overview........................................................................................................ 11 
Environmental characteristics .......................................................................... 11 
Climate vulnerability and potential impacts ................................................. 11 
Adaptation through regional cooperation ...................................................... 11 
The Canary Islands ...................................................................................................... 13 
Overview ............................................................................................................... 13 
Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on the 

4.2.1 
4.2.2 
detailed vulnerability and impact assessment ............................................................... 14 
The Azores ..................................................................................................................... 16 
Overview ............................................................................................................... 16 
Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on the 

4.3.1 
4.3.2 
detailed vulnerability and impact assessment ............................................................... 16 
4.4  Madeira .......................................................................................................................... 18 
Overview ............................................................................................................... 18 
Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on the 

4.4.1 
4.4.2 
detailed vulnerability and impact assessment ............................................................... 18 

4.3 

5 

5.1.1 
5.1.2 
5.1.3 

Caribbean archipelagos ...................................................................................... 20 
5.1  Regional overview........................................................................................................ 20 
Environmental characteristics .......................................................................... 20 
Climate vulnerability and impact ..................................................................... 20 
Adaptation through regional cooperation ...................................................... 21 
5.2  Guadeloupe ................................................................................................................... 22 
Overview ............................................................................................................... 22 
Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on the 

5.2.1 
5.2.2 
detailed vulnerability and impact assessment ............................................................... 23 
5.3  Martinique ..................................................................................................................... 24 
Overview ............................................................................................................... 24 
Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on the 

5.3.1 
5.3.2 
detailed vulnerability and impact assessment ............................................................... 25 
5.4  St Martin ........................................................................................................................ 26 
Overview ............................................................................................................... 26 
Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on the 

5.4.1 
5.4.2 
detailed vulnerability and impact assessment ............................................................... 27 

6 

Indian Ocean islands ........................................................................................... 29 
6.1  Regional overview........................................................................................................ 29 
Environmental characteristics .......................................................................... 29 
Climate vulnerability and impact ..................................................................... 29 
Adaptation through regional cooperation ...................................................... 30 

6.1.1 
6.1.2 
6.1.3 

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6.2  Reunion Island .............................................................................................................. 31 
Overview ............................................................................................................... 31 
Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on the 

6.2.1 
6.2.2 
detailed vulnerability and impact assessment ............................................................... 32 
6.3  Mayotte .......................................................................................................................... 33 
Overview ............................................................................................................... 33 
Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on the 

6.3.1 
6.3.2 
detailed vulnerability and impact assessment ............................................................... 34 

7.1.1 
7.1.2 

7  Non-island territory .............................................................................................. 35 
7.1  Regional overview........................................................................................................ 35 
Environmental characteristics .......................................................................... 35 
Climate vulnerability and impact ..................................................................... 35 
French Guiana .............................................................................................................. 35 
Overview ............................................................................................................... 35 
Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on the 

7.2.1 
7.2.2 
detailed vulnerability and impact assessment ............................................................... 36 

7.2 

8  Overall preliminary conclusions and recommendations ........................ 37 

9 

References .................................................................................................................. 40 
Review of information ................................................................................................. 45 
A.1 
Rating of vulnerabilities and potential impacts ..................................................... 48 
A.2 
Provision of recommendations .................................................................................. 50 
A.3 

B 

Adaptive capacity questionnaire ..................................................................... 51 

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Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

List of tables 

Table 4-1: Selection of relevant regional cooperation projects - Macaronesia .............. 12 
Table 4-2: Vulnerability and impact assessment – The Canary Islands ....................... 13 
Table 4-3: Preliminary conclusions and recommendations for vulnerable sectors – The 
Canary Islands .................................................................................................. 14 
Table 4-4: Vulnerability and impact assessment – The Azores .................................. 16 
Table 4-5: Preliminary conclusions and recommendations for vulnerable sectors – The 
Azores .............................................................................................................. 17 
Table 4-6: Vulnerability and impact assessment – Madeira ....................................... 18 
Table 4-7: Preliminary conclusions and recommendations for vulnerable sectors – 
Madeira ............................................................................................................ 19 
Table 5-1: Selection of relevant regional cooperation projects – Caribbean archipelagos
 ....................................................................................................................... 21 
Table 5-2: Vulnerability and impact assessment – Guadeloupe ................................. 22 
Table 5-3: Preliminary conclusions and recommendations for vulnerable sectors – 
Guadeloupe ....................................................................................................... 23 
Table 5-4: Vulnerability and impact assessment – Martinique ................................... 25 
Table 5-5: Preliminary conclusions and recommendations for vulnerable sectors – 
Martinique ........................................................................................................ 25 
Table 5-6: Vulnerability and impact assessment – St Martin ..................................... 27 
Table 5-7: Preliminary conclusions and recommendations for vulnerable sectors – Saint 
Martin .............................................................................................................. 27 
Table 6-1: Selection of relevant regional cooperation projects – Indian Ocean islands .. 30 
Table 6-2: Vulnerability and impact assessment – Reunion Island ............................. 31 
Table 6-3: Preliminary conclusions and recommendations for vulnerable sectors – 
Reunion Island .................................................................................................. 32 
Table 6-4: Vulnerability and impact assessment – Mayotte ...................................... 34 
Table 7-1: Vulnerability and impact assessment – French Guiana .............................. 36 
Table 7-2: Preliminary conclusions and recommendations for vulnerable– French Guiana
 ....................................................................................................................... 36 
Table A73: IPCC AR5 definitions of key terms ........................................................ 45 
Table A174: Potential climate sensitivities per sector ............................................... 47 
Table A175: Potential climate hazards ................................................................... 48 

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List of abbreviations 

Abbreviation 

Definition 

AFD 

AR5 

BEST 

CRVOI 

EC 

EDF 

EEA 

ENSO 

ERDF 

EU 

GVA 

IDDRI 

French Development Agency 

Fifth Assessment Report 

Voluntary scheme for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services 
in Territories of European Overseas 

Observation and Research Centre on Emerging Diseases in 
the Indian Ocean 

European Commission 

European Development Fund 

European Economic Area 

El Niño Southern Oscillation 

European Regional Development Fund 

European Union 

Gross Value Added 

Institute for Sustainable Development and International 
Relations 

IEDOM 

Institut d’Emission des Départements d’Outre-Mer 

IEEP 

IPCC 

IUCN 

JRC 

MAC 

MS 

NAO 

OMR 

ONERC 

PRAC 

SCRAE 

TFEU 

Institute for European Environmental Policy 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

International Union for Conservation of Nature 

Joint Research Center 

Madeira-Açores-Canarias 

Member State 

North Atlantic Oscillation 

Outermost Region(s) 

Observatoire national sur les effets du réchauffement 
climatique 

Regional Plan for Climate Change 

Schéma Régional – Climat Air Energie 

Treaty of the Functioning of the European Union 

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Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

1  Introduction 

The European Union (EU) has nine outermost regions, which are geographically distant 
from mainland Europe. They comprise French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mayotte, 
Reunion Island and Saint-Martin (France), Azores and Madeira (Portugal), and the 
Canary Islands (Spain). As islands, archipelagos and one land territory (French Guiana), 
they are located in the western Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean basin, the Amazonian 
forest and the Indian Ocean and are home to 4.8 million citizens. 

Despite their distance from Europe, these regions are an integral part of the EU, so EU 
law and all rights and duties associated with EU membership apply to them. 
Furthermore, in accordance with Article 349 of the Treaty of the Functioning of the 
European Union (TFEU), specific measures and derogations in EU legislation help these 
regions to address specific constraints that they face. Such constraints include the 
regions’ remoteness, insularity, small size, difficult topography and climate, and 
economic dependence on a small number of products. 

The purpose of this report is to update a previous study undertaken in 2014 on “The 
economic impact of climate change and adaptation in the Outermost Regions” (EC, 
2014) (henceforth, “the 2014 study”). The report reviews additional and up-to-date 
information for each of the nine regions, with regard to: 

  Outermost regions’ climate sensitivities to the impact of slow-onset changes and 

extreme weather events by sector, and their exposure 

  The status of outermost regions’ development and implementation of climate 

adaptation plans, and nature-based solutions. 

In doing so, this report expands the scope of the 2014 study by providing an assessment 
of climate vulnerability and potential impacts that addresses social and environmental 
issues in addition to economic dimensions. 

By highlighting key climate vulnerabilities and potential impacts by sector for each 
outermost region, the information presented, and preliminary conclusions may: 

Inform the development of the new EU Adaptation Strategy 
Inform current discussions on EU programming for 2021 to 2027 

 
 
  Provide a systematic basis on which to develop a comprehensive assessment of 
the outermost region’s vulnerabilities and potential impacts that enables the 
identification and prioritisation of adaptation options for each region and its 
sectors. 

2  Method 

2.1 Review of information 
The report makes systematic use of the definitions of terms from the Intergovernmental 
Panel’ Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (IPCC, 2014) (as described in the Appendix (Table 
A1.1 ) to assess climate vulnerabilities and potential impacts. As such, it defines1: 

  Climate vulnerability as a function of climate sensitivities and adaptive 

capacities 

1 Interactions between these definitions of terms are shown in  of Annex A. of Annex A. 

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Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

  Climate impact as a function of climate vulnerability and exposure to hazards 
  Adaptation as the process of reducing climate sensitivities, and/or increasing 

adaptive capacities, and/or reducing exposure to hazards.  

A standard summary assessment table template was developed. For each outermost 
region, separate tables were completed for each of the sectors addressed by the 2014 
study: Agriculture/soil; Forestry; Fisheries and aquaculture; Energy; Tourism; 
Construction and building; Transport; Water; Health; Biodiversity; Coastal zone 
management; Water; Disaster and Risk. 

Information extracted from the 2014 report was systematically recorded per sector in 
relation to:  

  Climate sensitivities selected from a standard list developed specifically for this 

report (see Table A1.2 ) 

  Hazards – projected slow-onset climate changes and extreme weather events 

that pose a hazard to climate sensitivities (see  

  Table A1.3 in the Appendix), and 

  The magnitude of exposure to hazards regarding the type, location and 

quantification of climate vulnerabilities exposed. 

This information was updated through review of outermost-region-specific public 
resources that were available online.  

Adaptive capacity was not assessed in the 2014 study. It is, however, a key factor in 
determining the vulnerability of a sector to the impacts of climate change (Figure A1-1). 
Hence, key contact points within each outermost region, identified by the European 
Commission, were asked to signpost all adaptation strategies, plans, 
programmes/projects, and funding available at Member State, outermost region and 
sectoral levels (see questionnaire at Appendix B). Where relevant, the documents 
referenced in the completed questionnaires were recorded in the summary table. Their 
existence and content were used as proxies to make a high-level assessment of the 
adaptive capacity of each sector. They were also a source of additional information 
regarding climate sensitivities and their exposure to hazards.  

The majority of responses to the questionnaire signposted relevant documents. 
However, some referred to mitigation-focused strategies and programmes, which were 
subsequently not considered. Some questionnaires were returned incomplete, without 
indication of whether or not adaptation strategies, plans, or programmes/projects exist 
at national and/or sectoral level and/or for specific sectors. The majority of 
questionnaires returned did not identify specific identify adaptation programmes/projects 
but, instead, provided a hyperlink to the full list of INTERREG projects. Where individual 
projects were highlighted, these were recorded in the summary table and reflected in the 
rating of adaptive capacity rating. Two questionnaires were not returned. 

The contents of all documents signposted in questionnaires was also reviewed to identify 
regional cooperation projects that address challenges posed by climate sensitivities, 
and/or adaptive capacities, and/or exposure to hazards that each outermost region 
shares in common with others in the vicinity. The mapping of regional cooperation 
projects is not exhaustive and limited to INTERREG projects, the latter being the main 
source of funding referred to by the outermost region’s contact points. Other projects 
may be relevant but were considered on an ad hoc basis to ensure that the assessment 
was consistent across the outermost regions. 

2.2 Rating of vulnerabilities and potential impacts 
Based on the information identified through the method outlined in Section 2.1, each 

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outermost region’s sectors were rated on scales from 1 to 5 with regard to their climate 
sensitivities, adaptive capacities and magnitude of exposure to hazards (see Table A2.1 
). For each sector, ratings of climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity were combined to 
provide a rating of climate vulnerability. The latter was then interacted with the rating of 
the magnitude of exposure to hazards to provide a rating of potential climate impact 
(Table A2.3 ). 

As some questionnaires were not fully completed and two were not returned by their 
outermost regions’ contact points, the following caveats apply to the ratings of adaptive 
capacity:  

  Where the questionnaire was not returned, the adaptive capacity for each of the 
corresponding outermost region’s sectors was given a mid-scale rating of 3 (i.e. 
should be able to adapt but will face challenges) in order to avoid undue bias  

  Where the questionnaire was returned but no information was recorded for a 
given sector, it was assumed that there were no existing sectoral strategies, 
plans and programmes/projects. Hence, the sector’s adaptive capacity was rated 
as 1 (i.e. unable to adapt without substantially increased support and resources). 

The ratings of climate vulnerability and potential impact, which constitute the final 
results of the assessment, are included in the completed standard summary assessment 
tables for each outermost region. The ratings can be interpreted as presented in Table 
A2.3 of the Appendix. Information on the probabilities of climate impacts was not 
available, so climate risk was not assessed. 

The resultant provisional assessment of climate vulnerabilities and potential impacts was 
used as a basis for identifying preliminary high-level recommendations on adaptation 
policy options. The limited amount of information publicly available online and provided 
by outermost regions’ contact points meant that recommendations could not be provided 
for all vulnerable sectors. However, as recommended in Section 8, the assessment 
provides a solid foundation on which to build, and further systematic update should 
subsequently enable identification of more specific recommendations in all sectors.  

3  Presentation of the results of the 

assessment 

The outermost regions are presented in four geographical groups: 

  The Macaronesian archipelagos – The Canary Islands, the Azores, and Madeira 

  The Caribbean archipelagos – Guadeloupe, Martinique and St Martin 

 

Indian Ocean islands – Reunion Island and Mayotte 

  Non-island territory – French Guiana. 

The standard summary assessment tables completed for each sector in each outermost 
region are available as an annex to this report.  

Sections 4 to 7 below provide an overview of the assessment of vulnerabilities and 
potential impacts within and across sectors for each outermost region. Each section 
provides preliminary recommendations that address the climate sensitives, adaptive 
capacities and exposure to hazards that are mentioned in the report and detailed in the 
Annex. Section 8 identifies high-level preliminary conclusions and adaptation policy 
recommendations regarding climate change adaptation and the role of “A stronger and 
renewed strategic partnership with the EU's outermost regions” (“the 2017 Strategy”).  

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Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

4  Macaronesian archipelagos 

4.1 Regional overview 
In this report “The Macaronesian archipelagos” (henceforth, “Macaronesia”) is used to 
refer to the Canary Islands (Spanish), the Azores and Madeira (Portuguese).  

4.1.1 Environmental characteristics  
All three islands are volcanic and benefit from a temperate climate, which enables a vast 
array of endemic species to grow. The laurel forest is specific to the region, particularly 
growing in Madeira and the Azores, as these islands offer high humidity and relatively 
stable, mild temperatures. Average annual temperatures do not exceed 20ºC in coastal 
areas and 12ºC at altitude. Rainfall levels are lower in the Canary Islands than in 
Madeira and the Azores. On all islands, altitude plays an important role in moderating 
precipitation and temperature, which results in slight climatic variations across each 
archipelago (Cropper, 2013).  

4.1.2 Climate vulnerability and potential impacts  
The following similarities have been identified in the detailed vulnerability and impact 
assessments across Macaronesia, and might be addressed by coordinated actions and/or 
a pooling of resources: 

  Despite its sensitivity to climate change, the tourism sector has a good adaptive 
capacity in all islands of the region. All islands benefit from inland touristic assets 
and are successful in developing sustainable/eco-tourism activities despite coastal 
hazards. 

  The transport sector is highly vulnerable on all Macaronesian islands. None is 
currently deemed able to adapt to the increasing effects of extreme weather 
events without substantially increased support and resources. A recent example is 
hurricane Lorenzo in 2019, which reportedly partially destroyed the port pier in 
Flores island, causing 9.5m EUR of damage to the transport sector (Reuters, 
2019). As a result of all islands’ insularity, their economic activities are dependent 
on a well-functioning transport system. Hence, the transport sector is considered 
highly exposed on all islands and to have high potential for impacts.  

  The water sector is highly vulnerable and exposed to the potential impacts of 

climate change. All Macaronesian islands are expected to be affected by 
groundwater depletion and an overall reduction in freshwater availability. This has 
implications for the tourism, agriculture and energy sectors: tourist flows and 
agricultural yields may decrease as a result, and an increase in reliance on 
hydropower (as observed in some regions) may limit future energy capacity. 

  With regard to disaster and risk, extreme precipitation events occurring over 
shorter time periods are expected to increase the occurrence of floods and 
landslides on all Macaronesian islands. In the Canaries and the Azores, tropical 
storms and hurricanes are expected to occur more frequently, and with greater 
strengths. In Madeira and in the Canaries, substantial wildfires have been 
recorded. A small increase in wildfires is expected in Madeira, and they are likely 
to become more frequent in the Canaries. Available data show that the number of 
fires has increased between 1970 and 2007 at a rate of 20 outbreaks per decade 
in the archipelago (EC, 2014). 

4.1.3 Adaptation through regional cooperation 
The regional cooperation programmes described in Table 4-1 are among those 

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implementing actions that are intended to reduce climate sensitivities, and/or increase 
adaptive capacities, and/or reduce exposure to hazards associated with sectors 
mentioned in Section 4.1.2.   

Table 4-1 Selection of relevant regional cooperation projects - Macaronesia 

Sector 

All 

Project 
name 
(duration) 

MAC-CLIMA 
(2019-2022) 

Tourism 

CDTECOTUR 
(2016-2019) 

MARCET II 
(not 
identified) 

Description 

Funding 

Link to adaptation 

The project focuses on 
strengthening the resilience of 
the Macaronesia region to 
climate change, through 
coordinated strategies for 
atmospheric and 
oceanographic climate 
monitoring. In particular, Axis 
3, co-financed by INTERREG, 
aims at “promoting adaptation 
to climate change and risk 
prevention and management”. 

Territory Custody and 
Ecotourism in Macaronesia – 
completed in December 2019, 
the project aimed to 
implement a common 
territorial custody strategy 
across the archipelagos, 
identifying ecotourism 
initiatives (restoration, 
adaptation, etc) to improve 
competitiveness and enhance 
the cultural and natural 
heritage of touristic area 
affected by common 
sensitivities and/or hazards. 
(Azores, Madeira, Canary 
Islands) 

Amongst other activities, the 
project aims at enhancing the 
value of cetaceans in the 
economy through ecotourism, 
by establishing ecological 
and environmental criteria. 

Increases adaptive 
capacity 

INTERREG 
MAC 
2014-
2020 

INTERREG 
MAC 
2014-
2020 

Increases adaptive 
capacity; reduces 
exposure 

INTERREG 
MAC 
2014-
2020 

Increases adaptive 
capacity; reduces 
exposure 

Transport 

No regional projects identified 

Disaster 
and risk 

Water 

No regional projects identified 

E5DES 
(2019-2022) 

ADAPTaRES 
(2017-2021) 

The project supports research 
and innovation to improve 
desalination practices in order 
promote blue circular 
economy, improve energy 
efficiency and improve water 
quality. 

Actions under this project aim 
at increasing Madeira, the 
Canary Islands and Cape 
Verde’s resilience to risks 
associated with droughts by 
increasing the qualifications of 

INTERREG 
MAC 
2014-
2020 

Reduces exposure; 
reduces climate 
sensitivity 

Increases adaptive 
capacity 

INTERREG 
MAC 
2014-
2020 

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Description 

Funding 

Link to adaptation 

Sector 

Project 
name 
(duration) 

key stakeholders in the 
education and agriculture 
sectors, and by developing 
plans and tools to improve 
water use in all key sectors. 

The full list of INTERREG 2014-2020 projects in the region is available here. Other relevant 
regional cooperation projects may be identified at: 

  Macaronesia blue projects 

 

Instituto Tecnologico de Canarias projects 

4.2 The Canary Islands 

4.2.1 Overview 
The vulnerability of the Canary Islands sectors to climate change and its level of 
potential impact is identified in Table 4-2. The following sectors may be considered 
as priority sectors for climate change adaptation: Forestry; Transport; Health; 
Biodiversity and Water. 

Compared to the other islands in the region, the archipelago is expected to be the most 
impacted by high temperature-induced events, such as droughts, heatwaves and 
wildfires. This is notably due to its specific exposure to changes in wind directions, as the 
retreat of the north trade winds leads to more warm air inflows from the African 
continent, prompting higher temperatures, drops in relative humidity and dust particles 
(JRC, 2017). 

A strategy for the Canary Islands to fight against climate change was approved in 2009, 
though it focused more on mitigation than adaptation, and criteria were devised for 
monitoring progress until 2015 only. The strategy highlights that an adaptation plan for 
the Canary Islands is premature, though local contact points reported that an adaptation 
strategy for the Canary Islands specifically is being developed. The Canary Islands also 
have three local institutions actively involved in the research and implementation for 
adaptation actions: the Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canarias, the Instituto 
Tecnologico de Canarias and the Universidad de La Laguna. 

Table 4-2 Vulnerability and impact assessment – The Canary Islands 

Potentially vulnerable 
sectors 
Agriculture/Soil 

Climate 
sensitivity 
5 

Adaptive 
capacity 
3 

Vulner-
ability 
4 

Exposure 
to hazards 
4 

Forestry 
Fisheries and 
aquaculture 
Energy 

Tourism 
Construction and 
building  
Transport 

Waste 

Health 

Biodiversity 

Coastal zone 

4 

5 

3 

5 

3 

4 

2 

5 

4 

4 

1 

4 

4 

4 

3 

1 

2 

2 

2 

3 

5 

3 

3 

3 

3 

5 

3 

5 

4 

4 

4 

3 

3 

5 

5 

5 

3 

5 

5 

4 

Impact 

4 

5 

3 

3 

4 

4 

5 

3 

5 

5 

4 

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Potentially vulnerable 
sectors 
management  

Climate 
sensitivity 

Adaptive 
capacity 

Vulner-
ability 

Exposure 
to hazards 

Impact 

Water  

Disaster and Risk 

5 

3 

3 

1 

4 

4 

5 

4 

5 

4 

4.2.2 Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on 

the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment 

The following preliminary high-level conclusions and policy recommendations were 
identified by sector based on the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment. Further 
information identified on the specific climate sensitivities, adaptive capacities, and 
exposure to hazards addressed by these recommendations are recorded in the detailed 
assessment in the Annex.  

In the questionnaire, stakeholders provided links and references to relevant strategies 
and programmes at Member State, Canary Islands, and sectoral level. Where no 
strategies nor programmes were identified for a given sector, this was clearly stated. 
However, the limited amount of information publicly available online on some potentially 
impacted sectors meant that recommendations could not be provided for all vulnerable 
sectors. As recommended in Section 8, the assessment provides a solid foundation on 
which to build, and further systematic update should subsequently enable identification 
of more specific recommendations in all sectors.  

Table  4-3  Preliminary  conclusions  and  recommendations  for  vulnerable  sectors  –  The 
Canary Islands 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Biodiversity 

Direct destruction of habitats, over-exploitation of resources and 
invasive species are the three principal threats to biological diversity 
of the Canary Islands. As a result, an important amount of funding 
under European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) has been 
allocated to the recording, surveillance and monitoring of biodiversity 
and climate change impacts across the archipelago, mainly focusing 
on invasive species. 

Future programming routes can proceed to translate the acquired 
knowledge base into actionable projects for the restoration, 
conservation and/or preservation of species. 

Reduced exposure and increased adaptive capacity of the biodiversity 
sector. 

Restoration, conservation and/or preservation of species, projects 
may bring the following benefits: reduce the spread of invasive 
species, limit the migration of species, restore and maintain natural 
barrier to hazards, amongst others. 

These benefits reduce climate sensitivities and exposure to hazards in 
the following sectors: Agriculture; Fisheries; Forestry; Health; Coastal 
Zone Management. 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Tourism is the main economic sector of the Island. 

Tourism 

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As the main economic sector, tourism may represent an ideal 
platform to promote restoration, conservation and preservation of 
biodiversity. Through a dedicated eco-tourism route, study trips or 
other eco-tourism initiatives, the popularity of the island for 
worldwide cruise tourism could be exploited, as a catalyst to sensitise 
tourists to nature conservation and climate change adaptation in 
general. On the assumption that tourists will visit neighbouring 
regions, the initiative would enable knowledge transfer beyond the 
Canary Islands. 

Reduce climate sensitivity and exposure of the tourism sector through 
re-purposing cruises and tourism activities in general. 

Reduced exposure and increase adaptive capacity of the biodiversity 
sector. 

Health 

Winds from the Sahara cause deteriorating respiratory conditions 
(Hernandez et al, 2018). These contribute to increasing the 
population’s sensitivity to heat stress, asthma, and other deteriorating 
physical conditions resulting from climate change. The island also 
faces an increase in vector-borne diseases, with insects facilitating the 
spread of tropical diseases such as dengue fever, malaria, etc. Little 
funding is currently allocated to address climate sensitivities of the 
health, and it is subject to “call for further research” in the adaptation 
section of the Canary Islands' climate change strategy. 

Further resources are needed to inform and prevent climate change 
impacts on health in the archipelago. The “call for research” should be 
supported. 

Increased adaptive capacity of the health sector. 

Increased adaptive capacity and reduced climate sensitivity of the 
tourism sector, as touristic flows may decrease as a result of 
deteriorating health conditions. 

Water 

Groundwater depletion is reaching 2 km3 in Tenerife (JRC, 2017). 
Little funding is currently allocated to address climate sensitivities of 
the water sectors, and it is subject to “calls for further research” in 
the adaptation section of the Canary Islands' climate change strategy. 

Further resources are needed to inform and prevent climate change 
impacts on the water sector in the archipelago and to ensure the 
availability of freshwater. The “call for research” should be supported. 

Increased adaptive capacity of the water sector. 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

December 2020  15 

 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Increased adaptive capacity and reduced climate sensitivity of the 
tourism sector, as touristic flows may decrease as a result of water 
unavailability. Reduced the agricultural sectors’ climate sensitivity by 
securing minimum water availability for irrigation. 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

4.3 The Azores 

4.3.1 Overview 
The Azores sectors’ vulnerability to climate change and its level of potential impact is 
identified in Table 4-4. The following sectors may be considered as priority 
sectors for climate change adaptation: Agriculture/soil; Construction and 
building; Transport; Biodiversity and Water.  

Changes to annual patterns of rainfall and increasing temperatures are expected to be 
the main slow-onset changes on the archipelago, though it will mostly be affected by 
more frequent and intense tropical storms and floods, inducing landslides. 

As an autonomous region of Portugal and an outermost region of the EU, the Azores has 
its own climate change policy and associated instruments, consolidated in one Regional 
Plan for Climate Change (PRAC), which includes specific adaptation strategies and 
monitoring indicators for key sectors. As reported by local contact points, the main 
constraint to the implementation of the PRAC is the region’s limited financial resources, 
essentially provided through the INTERREG Madeira-Açores-Canarias MAC 2014-2020 
programme, and the European Economic Area’s “EEA Grants Portugal 2014-2021”. 

Table 4-4: Vulnerability and impact assessment – The Azores 

Potentially vulnerable 
sectors 

Climate 
sensitivity 

Adaptive 
capacity 

Vulner-
ability 

Exposure 
to hazards 

Impact 

Agriculture/Soil 

Forestry 
Fisheries and 
aquaculture 
Energy 

Tourism 
Construction and 
building  
Transport 

Waste 

Health 

Biodiversity 
Coastal zone 
management  
Water  

Disaster and Risk 

4 

5 

5 

3 

4 

4 

5 

4 

3 

5 

3 

5 

5 

3 

3 

3 

3 

5 

2 

1 

4 

3 

3 

5 

3 

5 

4 

4 

4 

3 

2 

4 

5 

3 

3 

4 

2 

4 

2 

5 

3 

4 

4 

4 

5 

5 

4 

4 

5 

5 

5 

4 

5 

4 

4 

4 

3 

5 

5 

4 

4 

5 

3 

5 

3 

4.3.2 Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on 

the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment 

The following preliminary high-level conclusions and policy recommendations were 
identified by sector based on the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment. Further 
information identified on the specific climate sensitivities, adaptive capacities, and 

December 2020  16 

 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

exposure to hazards addressed by these recommendations are recorded in the detailed 
assessment in the Annex.  

In the questionnaire, stakeholders provided comprehensive information on relevant 
strategies and programmes at the Azores and at the sectoral level. Where no strategies 
nor programmes were identified for a given sector, this was clearly stated. However, the 
limited amount of information publicly available online on potentially impacted sectors 
meant that recommendations could not be provided for all vulnerable sectors. As 
recommended in Section 8, the assessment provides a solid foundation on which to 
build, and further systematic update should subsequently enable identification of more 
specific recommendations in all sectors.  

Table  4-5:  Preliminary  conclusions  and  recommendations  for  vulnerable  sectors  –  The 
Azores 

Agriculture; Fisheries and aquaculture 
Agriculture represents the main economic activity. Expansion of the 
sector through trade has been at the expense of biodiversity. Half 
of the land has been converted into agricultural pasture over the 
past 10 years (IUCN, 2008). 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

A similar pattern may result from current developments of the 
fisheries and aquaculture sector, where the Blue Growth Strategy 
(European Commission, 2017) aims to direct investments for 
economic growth.  

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 
Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits to 
other sectors 

Both sectors are currently “very sensitive” to the impacts of climate 
change, in addition to their growth having a key impact on 
biodiversity and natural resources.  

Any development of these sectors should include safeguards 
against maladaptation (measures could include a red-flag system, 
conditionalities, and so on). 

Prevented worsening climate sensitivity, reduced exposure to 
hazards and climate change events. 

Reduced exposure and increased adaptive capacity of the 
biodiversity sector (both terrestrial and marine) to climate change 
events by safeguarding endemic biodiversity assets. 

Tourism 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

The expected increase in annual temperatures and changes in 
annual precipitation patterns may create more favourable 
conditions for the development of tourism activities on the island. 

Support and gather learning from the Azores’ capacity to promote 
sustainable tourism, including eco-tourism initiatives inland, and 
upskilling tourism staff to promote local biodiversity. The careful 
development of the sector is key to ensure the conservation of land 
and marine biodiversity, while maintaining economic growth. An 
example of such cross-cutting activity includes tourism in relation to 
fishing, which has already been developed and provides additional 
income to fisherman (EC, 2017). 

Prevented increase in exposure to climate change events and 
coastal by supporting the development on inland and sustainable 
tourism.  

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

December 2020  17 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Prevented increase in sensitivity to climate impacts and in exposure 
of the biodiversity sector by safeguarding its assets and hence, the 
ecosystem services it provides. 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits to 
other sectors 

4.4 Madeira 

4.4.1 Overview 
Madeira sectors’ vulnerability to climate change and its level of potential impact is 
identified in  

Table 4-6. The following sectors may be considered as priority sectors for 
climate change adaptation: Construction and building; Transport; Waste; 
Water; and Disaster and Risk Management.  

Like the Azores, changes to annual patterns of rainfall and increasing temperature are 
expected to be the main slow-onset changes on the archipelago, though it will mostly be 
affected by extreme precipitation events over short period of time. More frequent 
heatwaves are also expected, though for shorter periods of time (EC, 2014). 

Madeira has a dedicated Climate Change Adaptation Strategy since 2015, including 
monitoring indicators. Considerable data are available on the key economic sectors 
through Madeira's regional statistics office, including specific environmental time series2. 
Such a wealth of data could not be identified in other outermost regions and significantly 
contribute to the adaptive capacity of the region.  

Table 4-6: Vulnerability and impact assessment – Madeira 

Potentially 
vulnerable sectors 
Agriculture/Soil 

Climate 
sensitivity 
3 

Adaptive 
capacity 
3 

Vulner-
ability 
3 

Exposure 
to hazards 
3 

Forestry 
Fisheries and 
aquaculture 
Energy 

Tourism 
Construction and 
building  
Transport 

Waste 

Health 

Biodiversity 
Coastal zone 
management  
Water  

Disaster and Risk 

4 

3 

3 

4 

4 

4 

3 

5 

5 

4 

5 

4 

4 

2 

3 

4 

1 

1 

2 

3 

4 

2 

3 

2 

3 

4 

3 

3 

5 

5 

4 

4 

3 

4 

4 

4 

3 

3 

5 

5 

4 

4 

5 

3 

5 

4 

5 

5 

Impact 

3 

3 

4 

4 

4 

5 

5 

5 

4 

4 

4 

5 

5 

4.4.2 Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on 

the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment 

The following preliminary high-level conclusions and policy recommendations were 

2 Available at : https://estatistica.madeira.gov.pt/en/download-now-3/territorio-gb/ambente-gb/ambiente-serie-gb.html 

December 2020  18 

 
 
 
 
                                                 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

identified by sector based on the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment. Further 
information identified on the specific climate sensitivities, adaptive capacities, and 
exposure to hazards addressed by these recommendations are recorded in the detailed 
assessment in the Annex.  

In the questionnaire, stakeholders provided links and references to relevant strategies 
and programmes at Member State, Madeira, and sectoral level. Where no strategies nor 
programmes were identified for a given sector, this was clearly stated. However, the 
limited amount of information publicly available online on some potentially impacted 
sectors meant that recommendations could not be provided for all vulnerable sectors. 
However, as recommended in Section 8, the assessment provides a solid foundation on 
which to build, and further systematic update should subsequently enable identification 
of more specific recommendations in all sectors.  

Table 4-7: Preliminary conclusions and recommendations for vulnerable sectors– Madeira 

Tourism 

The 2017 Blue Growth Strategy (European Commission, 
2017)highlights that tourism development plans should be spread 
over a wider area in Madeira and in Porto Santo to reduce pressure on 
spaces in Funchal, where almost all accommodation facilities, marina, 
airport and other services related to tourism are concentrated.  

Such expansion should ensure that the development of the sector 
does not increase its exposure to climate change hazards, nor lead to 
maladaptation in other sectors. 

Prevent an increase in exposure to climate change events and coastal 
by limiting the development of coastal tourism.  

Prevent an increase in sensitivity to climate impacts and in exposure 
of the construction and building sector and of the coastal zone 
management sector by pacing the expansion of touristic activities 
along the coast. 

Agriculture; Energy 

As water resources are being depleted: 
  Current strategies to reduce emissions through hydropower 
generation may be unsustainable due to water scarcity.  

  Opportunities to increase agricultural productivity as a result of 
increased temperature risk applying further pressure on scarce 
water resources, as the need for irrigation will increase.  

The development of the agricultural and energy sectors of the 
economy should be carefully considered in light of the risk of 
maladaptation (measures could include a red-flag system, 
conditionalities, and so on). 

Prevented worsening climate sensitivities and exposure caused by 
water depletion. 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

December 2020  19 

 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Reduced exposure and increased adaptive capacity to the impact of 
climate change of the water sector through reduced anthropogenic 
pressures on water resources. 

General 

Key climate and environmental data are available through The 
Institute of Forests and Nature Conservation and through Madeira’s 
dedicated climate observatory, including a mapping of climate events 
over time as well as of water resources vulnerabilities, health, energy 
infrastructure and tourism (all highly sensitive sectors)3. 

The considerable information available locally should be leveraged to 
inform climate change adaptation plans in the sectors prioritised 
above. 

Increased adaptive capacity in all sectors. 

Increased adaptive capacity in all sectors. 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

5  Caribbean archipelagos 

In this report, “Caribbean archipelagos” is used to refer to Guadeloupe, Martinique and 
St Martin outermost regions (French). 

5.1 Regional overview 

5.1.1 Environmental characteristics 
All islands are mountainous, with Guadeloupe and Martinique being volcanic islands. On 
average, the climate of the region is dry in the winter and wet in the summer. Average 
temperatures do not vary greatly across seasons, spanning from 20 ºC to 30 ºC 
throughout the year. Due to their geographical location, annual levels of rainfall are 
highly variable year to year, depending on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and 
the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (EC, 2014). All islands are located along the paths of 
cyclones/storms, which occur in the rainy season (June to November). 

The archipelago boasts a 143,256 km² marine sanctuary (AGOA Sanctuary), created in 
2012 to protect marine mammals (EC, 2016). Martinique and Guadeloupe feature two 
barrier reefs, including the longest barrier reefs of the region (30km). While rivers are 
abundant in Guadeloupe and Martinique, freshwater is severely lacking in St Martin, and 
wetlands are also more limited. Overall, all three islands host 50 endemic and 
threatened species (terrestrial, freshwater and marine species) (EC, 2016).  

5.1.2 Climate vulnerability and impact 
The following similarities have been identified in the detailed vulnerability and impact 
assessment across the Caribbean archipelagos, and might be addressed by coordinated 
actions and/or a pooling of resources : 

3 Available at the following link: https://observatorioclima.madeira.gov.pt/cartografia/ 

December 2020  20 

 
 
 
                                                 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

  All islands are extremely sensitive to potential impacts of climate change on the 
health sector. They face similar potential impacts due to their location on 
cyclone paths and their humid climate, which promotes the development and 
spread of vector-borne diseases. As a result, new diseases have arisen (e.g. 
Chikungunya), and epidemics are more severe (including dengue fever).  

  The coasts of all Caribbean archipelagos are highly vulnerable to the impacts of 
climate change, importantly including submersion and erosion. Natural barriers 
(e.g. mangroves, wetlands, coral reefs) are declining in all territories, while the 
coast is increasingly affected by hard infrastructure. As a result, coastal zone 
management is a particularly vulnerable sector for all islands of the archipelago. 

  Like the Macaronesian archipelago, chronic water deficits are expected across all 
islands as a result of climate change. Despite this potential impact, Caribbean 
archipelagos considered in this report currently have moderately efficient water 
distribution networks, in part due to physical infrastructure damages caused by 
extreme weather events. In both Martinique and Guadeloupe, around 40% of 
water is lost to leakages.  

  Due to their geographical location, cyclones and hurricanes are recurrent hazards 
in all islands. This mandates a coordinated disaster risk management strategy, 
shared resources and effective knowledge exchange across the territories.  

5.1.3 Adaptation through regional cooperation 

The regional cooperation programmes described in Table 5-1 are among those 
implementing actions that are intended to reduce climate sensitivities, and/or increase 
adaptive capacities, and/or reduce exposure to hazards associated with sectors 
mentioned in Section 5.1.2.  

Table 5-1: Selection of relevant regional cooperation projects – Caribbean archipelagos 

Sector 

Health 

Name 
(duration) 

CARES 
(completed) 

Coastal zone 
management 

CARIB-
COAST 
(2018-2021) 

Description 

Funding 

Link to adaptation 

The project aims at linking 
patients suffering from 
illnesses to doctors in the 
mainland. The latter provide 
e-consultations and remote 
diagnosis and can trigger the 
repatriation of patients in 
need. Through remote 
consultations, it also 
facilitates knowledge sharing. 
(Martinique, St Martin, 
Guadeloupe) 

The project aims at 
implementing a Caribbean 
network of coastal risk 
surveillance and prevention 
to improve climate change 
adaptation in the region 
(including Guadeloupe and 
Martinique)  

Increases adaptive 
capacity 

INTERREG 
Caraibes 
2014-
2020 

Increases adaptive 
capacity 

INTERREG 
Caraibes 
2014-
2020 

Water 

No regional projects identified 

Disaster 
Risk 
Management 

RADAR 
(completed) 

A new meteorological radar 
was installed in St Martin to 
improve the precision of 

INTERREG 
Caraibes 
2014-

Increases adaptive 
capacity 

December 2020  21 

 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

2020 

Increases adaptive 
capacity 

INTERREG 
Caraibes 
2014-
2020 

READY 
TOGETHER 
(2019 – 
2022) 

weather forecasts and 
measurements in the region. 
The programme aims at 
ensuring better coordination 
for warnings and helps to 
establish guidelines based on 
uniform measurements. 

The programme fosters 
regional cooperation and the 
pooling of resources in the 
region to improve regional 
disaster risk management 
(e.g. through shared 
equipment), increase small 
businesses’ resilience (with 
tools available to 
entrepreneurs in Martinique, 
Guadeloupe and St Lucia), 
and develop a “risk culture” 
among citizens and decision 
makers at the regional level. 

The full list of projects under INTERREG 2014-2020 is available here. 

5.2 Guadeloupe 

5.2.1 Overview 
Guadeloupe sectors’ vulnerability to climate change and its level of potential impact is 
identified in Table 5-2. The following sectors may be considered as priority 
sectors for climate change adaptation: Agriculture/soil; Forestry; Tourism; 
Construction and building and Transport; Coastal zone management.  

According to Guadeloupe’s SRCAE (“Schéma Regional – Climat Air Energie”), 
temperatures are expected to increase by 1°C in the medium term (2020-2050), and 
2,3°C in the long term (2070-2100). Sea levels are also expected to rise by an additional 
0,35m by 2050 and 0,47m by 2070. Projections on precipitation levels are uncertain: an 
increase by 70% is projected in the long term by the Climator model, while a decrease 
by -3% is projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In 
addition to these slow-onset changes, Guadeloupe is highly exposed to extreme weather 
events, including hurricanes and tropical storms, which are expected to increase in 
intensity. 

France has a National Adaptation to Climate Change plan, which makes specific mention 
to outermost regions, though not to Guadeloupe in particular. A call for proposals was 
released in 2016 for the definition of Guadeloupe's climate change adaptation strategy, 
but no strategy was released yet. Guadeloupe’s SRCAE promotes and suggests actions 
for consistent mainstreaming of adaptation and climate change challenges in decision-
making, and identifies specific actions per sector.  

Table 5-2: Vulnerability and impact assessment – Guadeloupe 

Potentially 
vulnerable sectors 

Climate 
sensitivity 

Adaptive 
capacity 

Vulner-
ability 

Exposure 
to hazards 

Impact 

Agriculture/Soil 

Forestry 
Fisheries and 
aquaculture 
Energy 

4 

5 

3 

3 

3 

1 

3 

1 

4 

5 

3 

4 

5 

4 

3 

3 

5 

5 

3 

4 

December 2020  22 

 
 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Potentially 
vulnerable sectors 

Climate 
sensitivity 

Adaptive 
capacity 

Vulner-
ability 

Exposure 
to hazards 

Impact 

Tourism 
Construction and 
building  
Transport 

Waste 
Health 
Biodiversity 
Coastal zone 
management  
Water  

Disaster and Risk 

5 

5  

4 

3 
5 
5 

5 

4  

5 

3 

3  

3  

4 
3 
3 

2 

3 

3 

4 

4 

4 

3.  
4 
4 

5 

4 

4 

5 

5 

5 

3 
4 
4 

5 

4 

4 

5 

5 

5 

3 
4 
4 

5 

4 

4 

5.2.2 Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on 

the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment 

The following preliminary high-level conclusions and policy recommendations were 
identified by sector based on the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment. Further 
information identified on the specific climate sensitivities, adaptive capacities, and 
exposure to hazards addressed by these recommendations are recorded in the detailed 
assessment in the Annex.  

In the questionnaire, stakeholders provided links and references to relevant strategies at 
Member State, Guadeloupe, and sectoral level. For some sectors, the existence or 
absence of adaptation strategies was not indicated. No programmes were reported. The 
limited amount of information publicly available online and provided by Guadeloupe’s 
contact point meant that recommendations could not be provided for all vulnerable 
sectors. However, as recommended in Section 8, the assessment provides a solid 
foundation on which to build, and further systematic update should subsequently enable 
identification of more specific recommendations in all sectors.  

Table  5-3:  Preliminary  conclusions  and  recommendations  for  vulnerable  sectors  – 
Guadeloupe 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Forestry 
Guadeloupe SCRAE differs from other French outermost regions’ as it 
identifies specific vulnerable sectors and actions to support their 
adaptation to climate change. Only the Forestry sector, considered 
highly vulnerable in our assessment, has not been identified as 
vulnerable sector in the SCRAE.  
Additional actions should thus be considered to ensure that 
adaptation efforts are also undertaken in this sector and 
counterbalance its omission in the SCRAE. 

Increased adaptive capacity of the forestry sector. 

Increased of the agriculture and of the biodiversity sector, as forestry 
provides key eco-system services to both sectors. 

Tourism 

December 2020  23 

 
 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Currently, the sector is considered as being able to adapt, notably by 
expanding its ecotourism label “Recommended by the National Park”. 
This is however insufficient in light of its sensitivity and exposure to 
climate events. Guadeloupe’s tourism sector is considered highly 
sensitive to climate change and highly exposed to hazards, being the 
most important and sustainable economic activity in Guadeloupe 
(IUCN, 2008). 
Programmes to support current tourism infrastructures and activities 
in adhering to this label could be supported to expand its reach and 
ensure it accounts for adaptation. This label may also be expanded 
further in the region to promote ecotourism in the Caribbean. 

Reduced climate exposure of the tourism sector through rewarding 
adaptive capacity of tourism infrastructures and activities. Reduced 
climate sensitivities by ensuring the flow of tourists can be maintained 
despite climate hazards. 

Reduced climate sensitivity and exposure of the coastal zone 
management and of the construction and building sectors, by 
supporting their adherence to climate adaptation standards through 
labels. 

Agriculture 

While current crops grown in the archipelago are highly exposed to 
the potential impacts of climate change, changes in temperature and 
in annual patterns of rainfall may provide opportunities for new crops 
to be grown.  
Further work could be undertaken to identify new suitable crops and 
build up local capacity to adapt farming practices accordingly. 

Reduced climate sensitivity and exposure of the agricultural sector 
through diversification and adaptation to other environmental and 
climate conditions.  

None identified. 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 
Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

5.3 Martinique 

5.3.1 Overview 
Martinique sectors’ vulnerability to climate change and its level of potential impact is 
identified in Table 5-4. The following sectors may be considered as priority 
sectors for climate change adaptation: Agriculture/soil; Fisheries/aquaculture; 
Construction and building; Biodiversity, Coastal Zone Management; Water; and 
Disaster Risk Management. This mainly results from the “adaptive capacity 
questionnaire” being only partially completed by respondents as part of this study. In 
some sectors, adaptive capacity may be higher than what is represented below. 

No changes in annual patterns of rainfall have been documented. However, an increase 
in water temperatures is observed, and it is likely that there will be an increase in the 
frequency of heatwaves and droughts based on recent patterns (EC, 2014). More than 
slow-onset changes, Martinique is at risk of hurricanes and tropical storms. Changes to 
the interannual variability of hurricane activity and thunderstorm activity have been 
observed. The season for hurricanes and thunderstorms, which was relatively fixed, 
appears to have become more variable (EC, 2014). 

December 2020  24 

 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

France has a National Adaptation to Climate Change plan, which makes specific mention 
to outermost regions, though not to Martinique in particular. No specific strategy for the 
adaptation of Martinique was reported. 

Table 5-4: Vulnerability and impact assessment – Martinique 

Potentially 
vulnerable sectors 

Climate 
sensitivity 

Adaptive 
capacity 

Vulner-
ability 

Exposure 
to hazards 

Impact 

Agriculture/Soil 

Forestry 
Fisheries and 
aquaculture 
Energy 

Tourism 
Construction and 
building  
Transport 

Waste 
Health 
Biodiversity 
Coastal zone 
management  
Water  

Disaster and Risk 

5 

3 

5 

3 

3 

4 

4 

\ 
5 
5 

5 

5 

5 

1 

1 

1 

3 

1 

1 

2 

2 
1 
2 

1 

3 

1 

5 

4 

5 

3 

4  

5 

4 

\ 
5 
5  

5 

4 

5 

4 

3 

4 

3 

4  

5 

4 

\ 
3 
5 

5 

5  

5  

5 

4 

5 

3 

4 

5 

4 

\ 
4 
5 

5 

5 

5 

“\” implies that insufficient information was available to complete the assessment 

5.3.2 Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on 

the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment 

The following preliminary high-level conclusions and policy recommendations were 
identified by sector based on the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment. Further 
information identified on the specific climate sensitivities, adaptive capacities, and 
exposure to hazards addressed by these recommendations are recorded in the detailed 
assessment in the Annex.  

In the questionnaire, stakeholders provided links and references to some relevant 
strategies and programmes at Member State, Martinique, and sectoral level. For some 
sectors, the existence or absence of adaptation strategies and programmes was not 
indicated. A list of INTERREG projects was provided. The limited amount of information 
publicly available online and provided by Martinique’s contact point meant that 
recommendations could not be provided for all vulnerable sectors. However, as 
recommended in Section 8, the assessment provides a solid foundation on which to 
build, and further systematic update should subsequently enable identification of more 
specific recommendations in all sectors.  

Table  5-5:  Preliminary  conclusions  and  recommendations  for  vulnerable  sectors  – 
Martinique 

Health 

December 2020  25 

 
 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Martinique’s health sector is highly exposed and sensitive to climate 
change, both as a result of extreme weather events and slow-onset 
changes which facilitate the spread of vector-borne diseases. No 
strategy or programmes addressing these sensitivities were reported.  

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Designing policy actions specifically aimed at increasing the sector’s 
resilience to climate change and preventing the spread of diseases in 
the population is a priority area for action. 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

5.4 St Martin 

Increased adaptive capacity of the health sector 

None identified. 

Water 

With key interlinkages to health, the water sector is also considered 
highly sensitive to the potential impacts of climate change. The 
contamination of water bodies is an important source of water-borne 
diseases. Poor management of water flows may also promote the 
spread of disease vectors.  
There is a Strategy for Water Management in place to address these 
sensitivities.  
  Supporting its implementation through funding and capacity 
building would be highly relevant to initiate rippling positive 
effects for the adaptation of the health sector.  

  Knowledge sharing resulting from these actions could provide 

examples of best practices and innovation in the management of 
water-health-environment nexus for other outermost regions. 

Increased adaptive capacity of the water sector. 

Reduced climate sensitivities of the health sector, through better 
management of water resources as a potential source of diseases. 

5.4.1 Overview 
St Martin sectors’ vulnerability to climate change and its level of potential impact is 
identified in Table 5-6. The following sectors may be considered as priority 
sectors for climate change adaptation: Tourism; Construction and building; 
Transport; Biodiversity; Coastal Zone Management. This mainly results from the 
“adaptive capacity questionnaire” not being completed by respondents as part of this 
study. As a result, “adaptive capacity” was rated 3 throughout the assessment, which 
may lead to inaccurate conclusions on the level of impact. 

Little information is available on the hazards faced by St Martin. Emphasis is almost 
exclusively put on extreme weather events, which are expected to increase in intensity. 

December 2020  26 

 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Since the 1950s, over 15 cyclones have already passed over the island, including three 
cyclones at or above category 3 (Vaslet & AGRNSM , 2018).  

France has a National Adaptation to Climate Change plan, which makes specific mention 
to outermost regions, though not to St Martin in particular. No specific strategy for the 
adaptation of St Martin was reported. The local natural reserve provides highly detailed 
updates on of the evolution of biodiversity on the island4. These observations have 
enabled the creation of a Biodiversity Management plan. The latter provides a 
comprehensive overview of the current state of biodiversity on the island.  

Table 5-6: Vulnerability and impact assessment – St Martin 

Potentially 
vulnerable sectors 

Climate 
sensitivity 

Adaptive 
capacity 

Vulner-
ability 

Exposure 
to hazards 

Impact 

Agriculture/Soil 

Forestry 
Fisheries and 
aquaculture 
Energy 

Tourism 
Construction and 
building  
Transport 

Waste 
Health 
Biodiversity 
Coastal zone 
management  
Water  

Disaster and Risk 

5 

\ 

\ 

4 

5 

5 

5 

4 
\ 
5 

5 

5 

\ 

3 

3 

3 

3 

3 

3 

3 

3 
3 
3 

3 

3 

3 

4 

\ 

\ 

4 

4 

4 

4 

4 
\ 
4 

4 

4 

\ 

3 

\ 

2 

5 

5 

5 

4 
\ 
5 

5 

4 

\ 

4 

\ 

\ 

3 

5 

5 

5 

4 
\ 
5 

5 

4 

\ 

“\” implies that insufficient information was available to complete the assessment 

5.4.2 Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on 

the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment 

The following preliminary high-level conclusions and policy recommendations were 
identified by sector based on the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment. Further 
information identified on the specific climate sensitivities, adaptive capacities, and 
exposure to hazards addressed by these recommendations are recorded in the detailed 
assessment in the Annex.  

No reply to the questionnaire was received. The limited amount of information publicly 
available online and provided by Saint Martin’s contact point meant that 
recommendations could not be provided for all vulnerable sectors. However, as 
recommended in Section 8, the assessment provides a solid foundation on which to 
build, and further systematic update should subsequently enable identification of more 
specific recommendations in all sectors.  

Table  5-7:  Preliminary  conclusions  and  recommendations  for  vulnerable  sectors–  Saint 
Martin 

All 

4 Available at the following link: https://reservenaturelle-saint-martin.com/fr/etudes-studies 

December 2020  27 

 
 
  
 
 
                                                 
Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 
Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Except for a detailed overview of St Martin’s biodiversity sector and 
accounts of its evolution over time, little information is available on 
the potential impacts of climate change, in particular on slow-onset 
events. Given that information is a key component of adaptive 
capacity, this limits improvements in adaptive capacity in any sector. 

A priority for the island should be to develop of a comprehensive 
assessment of these potential impacts based on up to date climate 
observations and projections, which may then inform sectoral policy 
making. This could be similar to Madeira’s dedicated climate 
observatory referred to in section 4.4.2. 

Increased adaptive capacity in all sectors. 

Increased adaptive capacity in all sectors. 

Water 

Amongst the key priority sector, water is most sensitive to the 
potential impacts of climate change as the island already experiences 
chronic deficits. 

  To support St Martin’s economic development and the 

management of its overall population growth, all sectoral policies 
and programmes should ensure that they do not contribute to 
limiting or reducing the availability of water.  

  Resources should also be allocated to the water sector itself, to 

develop innovative solutions to sustain water supply. 

Reduced exposure and increased adaptive capacity to the potential 
impact of climate change of the water sector through reduced 
anthropogenic pressures on water resources. Increased adaptive 
capacity of the water sector. 

Prevented worsening climate sensitivities and exposure caused by 
water depletion in the agriculture, energy, tourism and health sectors 

All 
St Martin seems underrepresented in key regional initiatives (such as 
a recent EU Grant to Strengthen Climate Resilient Health Systems in 
the Caribbean provided through EDF (Pan-American Health 
Organisation, 2020), and other programmes referred to in Table 51). 
This prevents knowledge sharing and capacity building within this 
specific island.  

 

Facilitate knowledge sharing between St Martin and similar islands 
through twinning, study tours, joint projects and other similar 
initiatives. 

  Ensure minimum representation and participation of all OMRs in 

regional projects. 

December 2020  28 

 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Increased adaptive capacity in all sectors. 

Increased adaptive capacity in all sectors. 

6  Indian Ocean islands 

In this report, “The Indian Ocean islands” is used to refer to the Reunion Island and 
Mayotte (French). 

6.1 Regional overview 

6.1.1 Environmental characteristics 
The climate of these islands is paced by Asian monsoons, with heavy rainfalls occurring 
in a short period of time. Mayotte has a strong seasonal irregularity of rain, with 75% 
precipitation occurring in the summer (EC, 2014). Both islands comprise very steep 
landscapes, which increase their sensitivity to heavy rainfall. Located between 
Madagascar and the African continent, Mayotte is relatively shielded from cyclones and 
hurricanes. On the other hand, Reunion Island is regularly exposed to cyclones.  

Both islands host an extremely rich array of marine and terrestrial biodiversity, including 
about 300 endemic species of plants and 15 endemic species of birds, amongst others. 
In particular, Mayotte hosts one of the world’s richest collection of tropical insular fauna 
as well as one of the largest lagoons in the world and a rare double barrier reef, hosting 
a rich diversity of corals. 

6.1.2 Climate vulnerability and impact 
Due to their different geographical location and development levels, Reunion Island’s and 
Mayotte’s vulnerability to climate change varies. Still, the similitudes have been 
identified in the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment, and might be addressed 
by coordinated actions and/or a pooling of resources: 

  Due to their geographical location, both islands are poorly accounted for in 

climate modelling. Models typically overestimate temperatures for the region, and 
yearly variations in rainfall patterns are not well understood (in terms of their 
duration and intensity). This prevents effective adaptation planning and limits the 
islands’ adaptive capacity in all sectors. 

  Both islands increasingly suffer from the potential impacts of climate change on 
the health sector. Endemic malaria, dengue and yellow fever are all vector 
borne diseases developing rapidly on both territories. The islands’ capacity to 
adapt to the increase in the spread of these diseases as a result of climate change 
is uncertain. Shared resources and knowledge exchange should be prioritised, 
especially given the uneven level of development of both islands.  

  As a result of their topography, geographical location and wealth of endemic 

species, both islands’ biodiversity sectors will potentially be highly impacted by 
climate change. In particular, they are highly sensitive to destruction in natural 
habitats. Erosion is a common cause to these losses on both islands, as it leads to 

December 2020  29 

 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

soil losses and encourages deforestation to expand agricultural areas. Similar 
sensitivities are reported in both islands’ marine ecosystem, including severe 
retreat of mangroves and coral bleaching events. Habitat loss facilitates the 
spread of new invasive species on both islands, threatening the remaining 
endemic species. Given the role of anthropogenic activities in enhancing these 
sensitivities, shared activities in communication, sensibilisation and capacity 
building are relevant. 

  Due to their steep and rugged landscape, both territories have little opportunity 
for their activity to expand inland. Hence, the careful management of coastal 
zone is of particular importance to both islands in order to maintain their 
economic activity and infrastructure. Solutions in eco-tourism and coastal zone 
management based on nature-based solutions are key to the management of 
these coasts, to preserve ecosystems and the economic activity as a whole.  

6.1.3 Adaptation through regional cooperation 
The regional cooperation programmes described in Table 6-1 are among those 
implementing actions that are intended to reduce climate sensitivities, and/or increase 
adaptive capacities, and/or reduce exposure to hazards associated with sectors 
mentioned in Section 6.1.3.  

Table 6-1: Selection of relevant regional cooperation projects – Indian Ocean islands 

Sector 

Name 
(duration) 

All (climate 
modelling) 

ARISE 
(2015-2018) 

ReNovRIsk-
C3  

(2017-2020) 

Biodiversity 

BIODIV’OM 

Description 

Funding 

Link to adaptation 

The ARISE network of 23 
partners worked to enhance 
and detail weather conditions 
and extreme weather events 
observations. Its aim was to 
provide advanced data 
products used as 
benchmarks for weather 
forecast models (based in 
Reunion Island, partnering 
with the Azores). 

ReNovRisk-C3 focuses on the 
meteorological and 
oceanographic impact of 
tropical cyclones on the 
islands of the Southwest 
Indian Ocean (SOOI) at 
present and future horizons. 
It aims to develop regional 
and international cooperation 
through collaboration 
between all the regional 
partners of the project 
(Mauritius, Madagascar, 
Seychelles) and the research 
teams of Reunion Island 
(University of Reunion 
Island, DIROI).  

The programme spans over 
all French outermost regions, 
with the main objectives to 
improve the conservation of 
threatened species’ habitats 
and to increase the 

Not 
identified 

Increases adaptive 
capacity 

INTERREG 
2014-
2020 

Increases adaptive 
capacity 

LIFE 

Reduces exposure; 
reduces climate 
sensitivity 

December 2020  30 

 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Sector 

Name 
(duration) 

Description 

Funding 

Link to adaptation 

MIMUSOPS 
(2016-2023) 

population of five global 
threatened species. (Reunion 
Island, Mayotte, St Martin, 
Martinique, French Guiana) 

“Mutualisation des 
connaissances et mise en 
valeur de la biodiversité 
marine et terrestre de la 
région Océan Indien" – The 
project aims to pool 
knowledge on terrestrial and 
marine biodiversity in the 
region. 

Coastal zone 
management  

Health 

No regional projects identified 

TROI (2015-
2018) 

“Traquer les risques 
sanitaires dans l'Océan 
Indien avec une approche 
‘One Health’” – The project 
aims at improving knowledge 
on infectious diseases in the 
region by studying the 
environment. This intends to 
improve health crisis 
management and prevention.  

INTERREG 
2014-
2020 

Increases adaptive 
capacity 

INTERREG 
2014-
2020 

Increases adaptive 
capacity 

The full list of projects under INTERREG 2014-2020 is available here under “liste des 
bénéficiaires”. 

6.2 Reunion Island 

6.2.1 Overview 
Reunion Island sectors’ vulnerability to climate change and its level of potential impact is 
identified in Table 6-2. The following sectors may be considered as priority 
sectors for climate change adaptation: Tourism; Transport; Health.  

Reunion Island faces a decrease in the frequency of rainfall (by 10 to 20% overall), in 
addition to an increase in temperatures up to 2.6ºC by 2100 and a higher frequency of 
heatwaves (MeteoFrance, 2015). This creates favourable conditions for wildfires, which 
the island is increasingly subject to. Projections show a decrease in the number of 
cyclones in conjunction with an increase in their associated intensity (IEEP, 2013) 

France has a National Adaptation to Climate Change plan, which makes specific mention 
to outermost regions, though not to Reunion Island in particular. No specific strategy for 
the adaptation of Reunion Island was reported.  

Table 6-2: Vulnerability and impact assessment – Reunion Island 

Potentially 
vulnerable sectors 

Climate 
sensitivity 

Adaptive 
capacity 

Vulner-
ability 

Exposure 
to hazards 

Impact 

Agriculture/Soil 

Forestry 
Fisheries and 
aquaculture 
Energy 

Tourism 

4 

3 

3 

5 

3 

3 

1 

1 

5 

1 

4 

4 

4 

2 

4 

3 

3 

2 

4 

4 

4 

4 

3 

3 

4 

December 2020  31 

 
 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Potentially 
vulnerable sectors 

Climate 
sensitivity 

Adaptive 
capacity 

Vulner-
ability 

Exposure 
to hazards 

Impact 

Construction and 
building  
Transport 

Waste 
Health 
Biodiversity 
Coastal zone 
management  
Water  

Disaster and Risk 

4 

4 

2 
5 
5 

4 

4 

4 

1 

1 

2 
1 
4 

3 

4 

4 

5 

5 

3 
5 
3 

4 

3 

4 

5 

5 

3 
4 
4 

5 

5 

4 

5 

5 

3 
5 
4 

5 

4 

4 

6.2.2 Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on 

the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment 

The following preliminary high-level conclusions and policy recommendations were 
identified by sector based on the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment. Further 
information identified on the specific climate sensitivities, adaptive capacities, and 
exposure to hazards addressed by these recommendations are recorded in the detailed 
assessment in the Annex.  

In the questionnaire, stakeholders provided links and references to some relevant 
strategies and programmes at Member State, Reunion Island, and sectoral level. For 
some sectors, the existence or absence of adaptation strategies and programmes was 
not indicated. A list of ERDF-funded projects was provided. The limited amount of 
information publicly available online and provided by Reunion Island’s contact point 
meant that recommendations could not be provided for all vulnerable sectors. However, 
as recommended in Section 8, the assessment provides a solid foundation on which to 
build, and further systematic update should subsequently enable identification of more 
specific recommendations in all sectors.  

Table 6-3: Preliminary conclusions and recommendations for vulnerable sectors – Reunion 
Island 

Biodiversity 

While the island’s biodiversity sector is highly sensitive to the 
potential impact of climate change, there are multiple actions being 
undertaken to boost its adaptive capacity, including specific initiatives 
to tackle the spread of invasive species, which are developing and 
thriving thanks to changing climate conditions. 

  These initiatives can serve as an ideal platform for knowledge 

sharing across outermost regions, to communicate lessons learnt 
and best practice in biodiversity conservation. 

  There is a need to ensure that knowledge sharing is also 
undertaken locally (such as through a “fitness check” or 
“redundancy check” system, or through the creation of an 
overarching cross-sectoral working group on adaptation) to avoid 
redundancy in the use of resources for the sector. 

Increased adaptive capacity of the biodiversity sector by ensuring 
efficient use of resources and knowledge. 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendations 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

December 2020  32 

 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Reduced climate sensitivities of the agriculture, fisheries, forestry, 
health, coastal zone management may all benefit through efficient 
limitation in the spread of invasive species.  

Health 

The assessment suggests that the health sector is currently not able 
to adapt to climate change without substantially increased support 
and resources. At the same time, the coverage of medical staff and 
facilities is improving.  

Efforts should be directed to increasing the island’s capacity in 
preventing diseases, notably vector-borne diseases, through 
sensitisation campaigns and scientific research. This should expand on 
the efforts of the CRVOI (Observation and Research Centre on 
Emerging Diseases in the Indian Ocean). 

Increased adaptive capacity. 

None identified. 

Coastal zone management 
Around 80% of the population lives on the coastline, including most of 
the main cities and economic centres. The coastline gathers 216 
artificial coastal defences to replace the degrading natural ones 
(IDDRI, 2016).  
Future resources should be directed to the restauration of natural 
defence assets, which would contribute to restore habitats, restore 
the touristic value of natural assets (such as coral reefs), and 
sustainably reduce the potential impact of hazards on the coastal 
population and infrastructure.  

Reduced exposure to climate change events and hazards. 

Reduced exposure of the construction and building, energy, transport, 
health and waste sectors, as their infrastructure is mainly located on 
the coast. 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

6.3 Mayotte 

6.3.1 Overview 
Mayotte sectors’ vulnerability to climate change and its level of potential impact is 
identified in Error! Reference source not found.. The following sectors may be c
onsidered as priority sectors for climate change adaptation: Construction and 
building; Transport; Biodiversity; and Water. This mainly results from the “adaptive 
capacity questionnaire” not being completed by respondents as part of this study. As a 
result, “adaptive capacity” was rated 3 throughout the assessment, which may lead to 

December 2020  33 

 
 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

inaccurate conclusions on the level of potential impact. 

Mayotte faces a decrease in the overall level of rainfall (which already reduced by 8% 
per decade since 1960) (AFD, 2019). In parallel, temperatures are projected to increase 
up to 2.4ºC by 2100 (MeteoFrance, 2015). While Mayotte is considered relatively 
cushioned from cyclones, changes in the storm and hurricane paths are leading to 
greater loss of life (25000 potential deaths in the event of a category 5 hurricane) and 
the destruction of infrastructure (AFD, 2019). 

France has a National Adaptation to Climate Change plan, which makes specific mention 
to outermost regions, though not to the Mayotte in particular. No specific strategy for 
the adaptation of Mayotte was reported. 

Table 6-4 Vulnerability and impact assessment – Mayotte 

Potentially 
vulnerable sectors 

Climate 
sensitivity 

Adaptive 
capacity 

Vulner-
ability 

Exposure 
to hazards 

Impact 

Agriculture/Soil 

Forestry 
Fisheries and 
aquaculture 
Energy 

Tourism 
Construction and 
building  
Transport 

Waste 
Health 
Biodiversity 
Coastal zone 
management  
Water  

Disaster and Risk 

3 

4 

4 

3 

4 

5 

5 

5 
5  
5 

4  

5  

3 

3 

3 

3 

3 

3 

3 

3 

3 
3 
3 

3 

3 

3 

3 

4 

4 

3 

4 

4 

4 

4 
4 
4 

4 

4 

3 

4 

2 

4 

3 

4 

5 

5 

4 
4 
5 

4 

5 

5 

4 

3 

4 

3 

4 

5 

5 

4 
4 
5 

4 

5 

4 

6.3.2 Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on 

the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment 

In the questionnaire, stakeholders did not provide any links nor references to relevant 
strategies at Member State, Mayotte, nor sectoral level. The existence or absence of 
those strategies or was reported, but not further details were provided. 

Due to Mayotte’s low levels of development, actions are required in all sectors of the 
economy. Specific safeguard against maladaptation should be implemented, to ensure 
that initiatives aimed at fostering economic development in the region are truly 
sustainable.  

Developing such “safeguards” requires further research on the island’s specific climate 
projections. The little data and information reported as part of this assessment illustrates 
the paucity of information available, which prevents adaptation. 

At the same time, its lower level of development provides Mayotte with an opportunity to 
leapfrog into a climate-proof society by effectively communicating and sharing with other 
outermost regions. To facilitate this, communication channels might be instituted, such 
as through “twinning” projects with other outermost regions, and regional eco-tourism 

December 2020  34 

 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

initiatives to leverage tourists’ mobility. 

7  Non-island territory 

In this report, “non-island territory” refers to French Guiana (French).  

7.1 Regional overview 

7.1.1 Environmental characteristics 
French Guiana is the only non-island territory of the outermost regions. 90% of its 
surface is covered by primary tropical forest. The region has a humid climate: above 
70% humidity outside the “dry months” (September and October). Temperatures range 
from 25 ºC to 35 ºC throughout the year, and precipitation is abundant (exceeding 2500 
mm per year). Due to its geographical location, the territory is subject to the Amazon 
estuary dynamics, whose currents greatly affect the shape of its coastlines (EC 2014) 
(World climate guide, unknown). 

As the unique significant tropical forest in Europe, French Guiana benefits from 
considerable preservation efforts. Almost two-third of its territory is covered by natural 
parks and other protected areas, including the 20’300 km 2 ”Parc Amazonien de Guyane”, 
13 sites protected by the Coastal conservatory, six natural reserves and one biological 
reserve. These host around 170 indigenous reptile species, 490 freshwater fishes 
species, endemic marine mammals such as the dolphin Sotalia guianensis, and nesting 
areas turtle nesting areas, amongst others (BEST, 2015). 

7.1.2 Climate vulnerability and impact 
Given the singularity of French Guiana, its specific climate vulnerability and potential 
impacts are presented in Section 7.27.1.27.2. 

7.2 French Guiana 

7.2.1 Overview 
French Guiana’s vulnerability to climate change and its level of potential impact is 
identified in Table 7-1. Almost all sectors may be considered as priority sectors 
for climate change adaptation, except for fisheries and aquaculture, energy and 
waste. This mainly results from the “adaptive capacity questionnaire” being only 
partially completed by respondents as part of this study. In some sectors, adaptive 
capacity may be higher than what is represented below. 

French Guiana faces important rises in temperatures, which are projected to increase by 
3ºC by 2080 (Onerc, 2012). An increase in rainfall during rainy season as well as 
precipitation deficit during dry season is expected in years to come in Eastern Amazonia 
(EC, 2014). Overall, annual precipitation levels are expected to decrease by 12% by 
2080 (Onerc, 2012). Projections on storm frequency and severity, and on regional 
patterns of sea level rise are uncertain. Current estimates suggest an increasing risk of 
coastal flooding (SRCAE Guyane, 2012). 

France has a National Adaptation to Climate Change plan, which makes specific mention 
to outermost regions, though not to French Guiana in particular. No specific strategy for 
the adaptation of Guiana was reported 

December 2020  35 

 
 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Table 7-1: Vulnerability and impact assessment – French Guiana 

Potentially 
vulnerable sectors 

Climate 
sensitivity 

Adaptive 
capacity 

Vulner-
ability 

Exposure 
to hazards 

Impact 

Agriculture/Soil 

Forestry 
Fisheries and 
aquaculture 
Energy 

Tourism 
Construction and 
building  
Transport 

Waste 
Health 
Biodiversity 
Coastal zone 
management  
Water  

Disaster and Risk 

5 

5 

3 

4 

2 

3 

4 

\ 
5 
5 

4 

4 

4 

1 

1 

3 

3 

1 

1 

1 

2 
1 
1 

1 

1 

1 

5 

5 

3 

4 

3 

4 

5 

\ 
5 
5 

5 

5 

5 

5 

4 

5 

4 

2 

5 

4 

\ 
5 
5 

5 

4 

4 

5 

5 

4 

4 

3 

5 

5 

\ 
5 
5 

5 

5 

5 

“\” implies that insufficient information was available to complete the assessment 

7.2.2 Summary of preliminary conclusions and policy options, based on 

the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment 

The following preliminary high-level conclusions and policy recommendations were 
identified by sector based on the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment. Further 
information identified on the specific climate sensitivities, adaptive capacities, and 
exposure to hazards addressed by these recommendations are recorded in the detailed 
assessment in the Annex.  

In the questionnaire, stakeholders provided links and references to some relevant 
strategies at Member State, French Guiana, and sectoral level. For some sectors, the 
existence or absence of adaptation strategies was not indicated. No programmes were 
reported. The limited amount of information publicly available online and provided by 
French Guiana’s contact point meant that recommendations could not be provided for all 
vulnerable sectors. However, as recommended in Section 8, the assessment provides a 
solid foundation on which to build, and further systematic update should subsequently 
enable identification of more specific recommendations in all sectors.  

Table 7-2: Preliminary conclusions and recommendations for vulnerable– French Guiana 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

French Guiana’s SRCAE does not account for climate vulnerabilities 
and potential impacts. 

All 

French Guiana’s SRCAE should be updated, with specific consideration 
for climate change adaptation. Example of what this may include can 
be found in Guadeloupe’s SRCAE, referred to in section 5.2.1. In 
particular, the SRCAE should be updated to account for the following 
two recommendations. 

Increased adaptive capacity. 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

December 2020  36 

 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Increased adaptive capacity. 

Energy 

Over half of French Guiana energy production is currently based on 
hydraulic energy. Warming temperatures and decreasing levels of 
rainfall are expected to reduce energy production capacity. In 2009, a 
drought reduced hydraulic energy production and bound the region to 
increase oil and gas imports by 7% (IEDOM, 2011).  
Further research and development of solutions in energy production 
from alternative sources should be prioritised, as such events are 
expected to increase in frequency. 

Increased adaptive capacity and reduced exposure by reducing 
reliance and water resources. 

Reduced climate sensitivity of the water sector by reducing 
anthropogenic pressure on water availability, though water is less 
scarce in French Guiana than in other OMRs. 

Construction and building; Energy 

French Guiana’s tropical and humid climate is unique amongst 
outermost regions and causes severe damages to electricity and 
infrastructure networks.  

Consideration for this specificity should be ensured in the appraisal of 
new infrastructure projects, and research on more resilient material 
could be undertaken.  

Increased adaptive capacity and reduced sensitivity to climate events 
by improving materials used in infrastructure works. 

None identified. 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

Preliminary 
conclusions 

Preliminary 
recommendation 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver adaptation 
benefits within the 
sector 

Potential of the 
recommendation to 
deliver cross-cutting 
adaptation benefits 
to other sectors 

8  Overall preliminary conclusions and 

recommendations 

Drawing upon this update of the 2014 study, in providing a provisional vulnerability and 
impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions, we have identified the following 
preliminary conclusions and recommendations regarding climate change adaptation and 
the role of “A stronger and renewed strategic partnership with the EU's outermost 
regions” (“the 2017 Strategy”) (European Commission, 2017). It is intended that the 
recommendations will inform the identification of adaptation policy options included in 
the impact assessment for the new EU Adaptation Strategy. They may also inform 
discussions surrounding the next ERDF/INTERREG programming period, the development 

December 2020  37 

 
 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

of the Blue Growth Strategy, and the implementation of the 2017 Strategy.  

All following recommendations are provisional pending a further systematic update of 
this report to ensure its saliency, credibility and legitimacy. It should include: 

  Review of public resources specific to outermost regions that are not currently 

available online but which can be obtained from stakeholders 

  Review of all additional relevant regional cooperation projects not specifically 

drawn to our attention by the outermost regions’ contact points 

  Detailed review of adaptive capacities in relation to climate sensitivities rather 
than relying on this report’s proxy assessment of adaptation plans, strategies, 
programmes, and funding signposted by outermost regions’ contact points 

  Detailed assessment of exposure to climate hazards, providing standardised and 

up-to-date information on the type, location and quantification of climate 
vulnerabilities exposed.  

 

Iterative consultation with stakeholders, sectorally and cross-sectorally. 

We recommend that this further update is undertaken as a priority in “focusing efforts on 
addressing climate change, protecting biodiversity, introducing circular economy and 
boosting renewable energy”, as recommended in the Commission’s report on the 
implementation of the 2017 Strategy (EC, 2020).  

This provisional climate vulnerability and impact assessment highlights important 
differences in the climate sensitivities and associated adaptive capacities of the 
outermost regions, as compared to the European mainland. As a result, we 
recommend that the EU’s support to the outermost regions should be 
differentiated according to each region’s specific needs and progress with its 
adaptation planning process: 

  Some regions require resources for the implementation of adaptation actions and 
policies, based on established climate vulnerability assessments and adaptation 
plans and strategies (Madeira, the Azores, the Canary Islands, Guadeloupe) 

 

In other regions, adaptation plans and strategies have not yet been developed 
due to a lack of resources and information. In those regions (Mayotte, St Martin, 
Reunion Island, French Guiana, Martinique), the EU’s added value would be to 
support the local development of context-specific adaptation plans and strategies. 

EU funding of adaptation actions that are intended to reduce climate sensitivities or 
increase adaptive capacities specific to the outermost regions would be best allocated to 
projects that support the implementation of existing local policies and action 
plans that address adaptation needs. This would encourage adaptation to be fully 
and horizontally integrated within the outermost regions’ governance and management 
locally. Hence, we recommend that: 

  Where a vulnerability assessment and/or an adaptation plan or strategy have not 
yet been developed locally, EU funding should be allocated for their development 

  EU funding for adaptation actions should only be allocated to outermost regions 

that have existing local, context-specific vulnerability assessments and adaptation 
plans or strategies 

 

Irrespective of each outermost region’s progress with adaptation planning, EU 
funding should be allocated to knowledge sharing and capacity building between 
the outermost regions, as they share common challenges regarding climate 
sensitivities, adaptive capacities and exposure to hazards that differ from those 

December 2020  38 

 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

faced by Member States in mainland Europe. Knowledge sharing and capacity 
building should be geared towards: 

o  Supporting the development of vulnerability assessments and adaptation 

plans or strategies where they are currently lacking 

o  Systematically identifying and sharing key lessons from implementation of 

existing adaptation plans or strategies. 

These recommendations on EU funding will be relevant when discussing priorities and 
objectives for the next ERDF/INTERREG programming period. The intent of the 
recommendations is that they should ensure that funding is directed to the most 
vulnerable sectors and most impactful actions, once identified. Key learnings from the 
regional cooperation programmes identified as part of this study may also serve to guide 
the orientation of the next programming period. We recommend that potential gaps in 
regional cooperation (i.e. where relevant tables in Sections 4 to 7 above state “No 
regional projects identified”) should be addressed, wherever a detailed vulnerability 
assessment confirms the preliminary climate sensitivities identified and where these are 
not currently from the focus of coordinated action.  

The EU’s unique ties with the outermost regions and provision of funding have supported 
their economic development, notably through agriculture, trade and tourism. However, 
rapid development in these sectors risks undermining the outermost region’s climate 
resilience by contributing to the destruction of biodiversity that is unique to Europe. This 
biodiversity provides an array of ecosystem services (e.g. coastal defence, soil 
stabilisation) that are vital for adaptation to climate change. Hence, we recommend that 
“safeguards” against maladaptation should be established in relation to all EU 
actions (whether or not they are solely targeted to outermost regions). For example: 
  Fitness checks of EU policies (notably including the Common Agricultural 
Policy, the Blue Growth Strategy, the European Industrial Strategy, the 
Biodiversity Strategy, the 2017 Strategy, and the Adaptation Strategy) could 
identify objectives and priorities that may potentially compound the outermost 
regions’ existing climate vulnerabilities.  

  Fitness checks of EU funding programmes to ensure coherence with adaptation 

objectives, and application of conditions to implementation of these programmes, 
which could be subsequently reviewed to ensure that they safeguard against 
maladaptation.  

  Establishment of mechanisms to ensure that Member States’ strategies 
and actions in the outermost regions do not compound vulnerabilities 
and potential impacts (e.g. by promoting uptake of hydroelectricity and 
hydraulic energy in regions that suffer water scarcity and where there are high 
potential impacts from droughts). This might be achieved through mandatory 
reporting on how Member States’ national strategies take account of outermost 
regions’ climate vulnerabilities. 

The 2017 Strategy could play a key in role in implementing these safeguards 
and we recommend that the EU allocates specific resources to it and thereby enable the 
“greater focus on climate change, protecting biodiversity, introducing circular economy 
and boosting renewable energy” recommended by the Commission (EC, 2020). This may 
require review of the strategic pillars of the Strategy to account for social and 
environmental priorities, which are identified in this report and are likely to be further 
emphasised by any subsequent more comprehensive update. These priorities include 
health and biodiversity, which are identified as highly sensitive sectors in all outermost 
regions.  

December 2020  39 

 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

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Appendices 
Method 
A.1  Review of information 

Unlike the 2014 study, this report makes systematic use of the definitions of terms 
(Table A1.1 ) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth 
Assessment Report (AR5) to assess climate vulnerabilities and impacts. Most notably, 
these definitions were helpful in disaggregating consideration of vulnerability from 
uncertainties associated with risk of impacts for which probabilities were not available. 
Interactions between these definitions of terms are shown in Figure A1.1. 

Table A1.1 IPCC AR5 definitions of key terms 

Term 

Definition 

Climate 
sensitivity 

“Degree to which a system or species is affected, adversely or beneficially, 
directly or indirectly, by climate variability or change.” 

Adaptive 
capacity 

“Ability of systems, institutions, humans, and other organisms to adjust to 
potential damage, take advantage of opportunities, or respond to 
consequences” 

Vulnerability 

“Propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability 
encompasses… sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope 
and adapt.” 

Hazard 

“Potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend or 
physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as 
well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service 
provision, ecosystems, and environmental resources.” 

Exposure  to 
hazards 

“The presence of people; livelihoods; species or ecosystems; environmental 
functions, services, and resources; infrastructure; or economic, social, or 
cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.” 

Impact 

“Effect on a natural or human system… the interaction of climate changes or 
hazardous climate events occurring within a specific time period and the 
vulnerability of an exposed society or system.” 

Adaptation 

“The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In 
human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit 
beneficial opportunities.” 

Figure A1.1 Interactions between IPCC AR5 definitions of terms 

Sensitivity 

Adaptive 
capacity 

Vulnerability 

Hazard 

Exposure 

Risk of impact 

December 2020  45 

 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

A standard summary table was developed for each outermost region focused on each of 
the sectors addressed by the 2014 study and are listed in the same order throughout 
this report for ease of cross reference, as: 

  Agriculture/soil 

  Forestry 

  Waste 

  Health 

  Fisheries and aquaculture 

  Biodiversity 

  Energy 

  Tourism 

  Coastal zone management 

  Water 

  Construction and building 

  Disaster and risk. 

  Transport 

The only deviation from the order of sectors in the 2014 study is that agriculture and soil 
have been combined to unevenness of available data and similarity of climate 
sensitivities. 

Information extracted from the 2014 report was systematically recorded per sector in 
relation to:  

  Climate sensitivities selected from a standard list developed specifically for 

this report (see Table A1.2 ) 

  Hazards (projected slow-onset climate changes and extreme weather events 

that pose a hazard to climate sensitivities, see  

  Table A1.3), and 

  The magnitude of exposure to hazards, including 

o  Type of attribute (i.e. people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, 

environmental functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or 
economic, social, or cultural assets) 

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Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

o  Location of attribute (if specific to one part of an OR, which may be 

obvious in many cases but may not be, e.g. surface vs bottom-dwelling 
fish) 

o  Quantification of attribute (e.g. number of people, proportion of 

population, spatial extent or length, absolute economic value or proportion 
of GDP, societal, cultural or ecological value).5 

This information was then updated through additional searches using Google, Google 
Scholar, Google Dataset Search and other online search engines. Where no updated 
information was found, conclusions from the 2014 report were retained.  

Table A1.2 Potential climate sensitivities per sector 

Sector 

Potential climate sensitivities* 

Agriculture/soil 

Forestry 

Fisheries and 
aquaculture 

Energy 

Tourism 

Construction and 
building 

Transport 

Waste 

Health 

Biodiversity 

Coastal zone 
management 

Water 

Saltwater intrusion; Water scarcity; Increase in pests and diseases; 
Increase in invasive species; Decrease in yields; Increase in yields; 
Increase in productivity; Decrease in productivity; Soil erosion; Lengthening 
of the growing season; Agricultural area expansion; losses in agricultural 
area. 

Tree loss; Reduction in forest area; Productivity increase; Loss of natural 
habitat(s); Increase in invasive species; Loss of key ecosystem services; 
Degradation of soils; Saltwater intrusion; Anthropogenic pressure 

Changes in the composition of species; Changes in the migration of species; 
Increase in pests and diseases; Over-fertilisation; New invasive species; 
Habitat loss; Coral bleaching; Decreases in fish stocks; Decrease in 
production; Ocean acidification 

Decrease in energy supply; Physical infrastructure damages; Increase in 
energy demand; Uptake of renewable energies; Increase in energy 
production capacity 

Reduction in freshwater availability; Decrease in attractiveness of touristic 
assets; Health and safety hazards; Reduction in the capacity to host 
tourists; Decrease in visitors; Decrease in income from tourism; 
Transmission of infectious tropical diseases; Physical damage to tourist 
infrastructure 

Physical damage to buildings; Erosion; Increase in construction activity 

Physical infrastructure damage; Reduction in operative time and capacity 

Physical infrastructure damage; Increase in demand; Increase in 
environmental pollution 

Increased mortality; Spread of vector borne diseases; Increase in 
transmission rates; New human diseases; Deteriorating respiratory 
conditions 

Loss of natural habitat(s); Invasive alien species (introduction and spread); 
Toxic algae; Ocean acidification; Changes in the composition of species 
(disappearance of species, appearance and expansion of new species); 
Coral bleaching; Changes in migration routes 

Coastal erosion; Coastal squeeze; Physical damage to coastal infrastructure 

Increase in the demand for water; Competition over water resources; 
Reduction in groundwater availability/groundwater depletion; Saltwater 
intrusion; Contamination of water bodies, Physical infrastructure damages 

Disaster risk 

Prone to disasters arising from each of the classes of hazards, particularly 
extreme weather events 

*the detailed vulnerability and impact assessment may occasionally include additional climate 

5 Location and quantification of attributes should be detailed for each type of attributes identified. The resources available for 
this study and the information identified did not allow to provide such details. Hence, the assessment provided is only partial 
and based on a systematic assumption on the type of attributes exposed.  

December 2020  47 

 
 
                                                 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

Sector 
sensitivities based on a region’s specific characteristic. 

Potential climate sensitivities* 

Table A1.3 Potential climate hazards 

Changes or events that pose a hazard  

Slow-onset 
changes 

Increase in temperatures; Increase in water temperature; Changes in wind 
direction and intensity; Changes in the annual patterns of rainfall; Sea-level 
rise  

Extreme weather 
events 

Floods; Landslides; Drought/heatwaves; Wildfires; Storms (high winds); 
Coastal storm surge 

Adaptive capacity was not taken into account in the 2014 study. It is, however, a key 
factor in determining the vulnerability of a sector to the impacts of climate change 
(Figure A1.1). Hence, key contact points within each outermost region, identified by the 
European Commission, were asked to signpost all adaptation plans, strategies, 
programmes, and funding available at national, local and sectoral levels (see 
questionnaire at Appendix A.3). The documents were recorded in the summary table and 
their existence and their content used to make a high-level assessment of the adaptive 
capacity of each sector. 

The majority of responses to the questionnaire signposted relevant documents. 
However, some referred to mitigation-focused strategies and programmes, which were 
subsequently not considered. Some questionnaires were returned incomplete, without 
indication of whether or not adaptation strategies, plans, or programmes/projects exist 
at national and/or sectoral level and/or for specific sectors. The majority of 
questionnaires returned did not identify specific identify adaptation programmes/projects 
but, instead, provided a hyperlink to the full list of INTERREG projects. Where individual 
projects were highlighted, these were recorded in the summary table and reflected in the 
rating of adaptive capacity rating. Two questionnaires were not returned. 

The contents of all documents signposted in questionnaires was also reviewed to identify 
regional cooperation projects that address challenges posed by climate sensitivities, 
and/or adaptive capacities, and/or exposure to hazards that each outermost region 
shares in common with others in the vicinity. The mapping of regional cooperation 
projects is not exhaustive and limited to INTERREG projects, the latter being the main 
source of funding referred to by the outermost region’s contact points. Other projects 
may be relevant but were considered on an ad hoc basis to ensure that the assessment 
was consistent across the outermost regions. 

A.2  Rating of vulnerabilities and potential impacts 

Based on the information identified through the method outlined in Section 2, we then 
rated each outermost region’s sectors on scales from 1 to 5 with regard to their climate 
sensitivities, adaptive capacities and magnitude of exposure to hazards (see Table A2.1 
). The following caveats applied in relation to adaptive capacity:  

  Where the adaptive capacity questionnaire was not returned by local contact 

points, the corresponding outermost regions’ adaptive capacity was rated as 3 for 
all sectors. 

  Where the adaptive capacity questionnaire was returned incomplete, the adaptive 
capacity of sectors for which no information was provided was rated as 1. It is 
assumed that there are no existing sectoral strategies/programmes, or that local 
points are not aware of any. 

December 2020  48 

 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

  Where answers to the adaptive capacity questionnaire referred to mitigation-
focused strategies and programmes, these have not been included in the 
assessment. 

Table A2.1 Ratings of climate sensitivities and adaptive capacities 

Climate sensitivity rating 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

Not adversely sensitive 

Unlikely to be adversely sensitive 

Sensitive 

Very sensitive 

Extremely sensitive 

Adaptive capacity rating 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

Unable to adapt without substantially increased support and resources 

May be unable to adapt without increased support and resources 

Should be able to adapt but will face challenges 

Able to adapt but will face minor challenges 

Able to adapt without problems 

Exposure to hazard  

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

Systems (society, economy, environment) are not exposed to the hazards 

Some systems are have some exposure to the hazards 

All systems have some exposure to the hazards 

At least one of systems is highly exposed to the hazards 

All systems are highly exposed to the hazards 

For each sector, ratings of climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity were combined to 
provide a rating of climate vulnerability, which was then interacted with the rating of the 
magnitude of hazards to provide a rating of potential climate impact (Table A2.2 ). 

Table A2.2 Rating of vulnerability and impact in relation to climate variability and change 

e
v
i
t
p
a
d
A

y
t
i
c
a
p
a
c

5 

4 

3 

2 

1 

Vulnerability 

1  1  2  2  2 

1  2  3  3  3 

2  3  3  4  4 

2  3  4  4  5 

2  3  4  5  5 
1  2  3  4  5 

Climate 
sensitivity 

-
r
e
n
u
V

l

y
t
i
l
i

b
a

5  2 
4  2 
3  2 
2  1 
1  1 
1 

3 

3 

3 

2 

1 
2 

4 

4 

3 

3 

2 
3 

5 

4 

4 

3 

2 
4 

5 

5 

4 

3 

2 
5 

Impact 

Exposure to hazards 

These ratings of climate vulnerability and potential impacts constitute the final results of 
the assessment, are included in the standard summary table for each outermost region, 
and can be interpreted as presented in Table A2.3 . As noted in Section 2.1, information 
on the probabilities of climate impacts was not available, so climate risk was not 
assessed. 

Table A2.3 Interpretation of the vulnerability and impact ratings 

Vulnerability rating 

Impact rating 

1 

2 

3 

Highly resilient 

Resilient 

Potentially vulnerable 

1 

2 

3 

Low impact 

Medium impact 

December 2020  49 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

4 

5 

Vulnerable 

Highly vulnerable 

4 

5 

High impact 

A.3  Provision of recommendations 

The vulnerability and impact assessment was used to provide preliminary 
recommendations regarding climate change adaptation and the role of “A stronger and 
renewed strategic partnership with the EU's outermost regions” (“the 2017 Strategy”).. 
Due to the limited amount of information available publicly online and provided by some 
outermost regions’ contact points, recommendations could not be provided for all 
vulnerable sectors.  

December 2020  50 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Vulnerability and impact assessment of the EU’s outermost regions 

B  Adaptive capacity questionnaire 

Strategic planning 

Has a national adaptation 
strategy/plan been adopted  

For the country as a whole? 

Y/N 

If yes, please select the 
most appropriate 
development stage 
Please select 

For the country as a whole, with specific 
mention of the Canary Islands? 

Y/N 

Please select 

For the Canary Islands specifically? 

Y/N 

Has a sectoral adaptation 
strategy/plan been adopted in the 
following sectors? 

Agriculture 

Y/N 

Fisheries and aquaculture 

Y/N 

Forestry 

Y/N 

Energy 

Y/N 

Tourism 

Y/N 

Construction and building 

Y/N 

Transport 

Y/N 

Waste   Y/N 

Soil 

Y/N 

Health 

Y/N 

Biodiversity 

Y/N 

Coastal Zone Management 

Y/N 

Water 

Y/N 

Disaster and risk 

Y/N 

Funding allocation 

Please select 
If yes, please select the 
most appropriate 
development stage 
Please select 

Please select 

Please select 

Please select 

Please select 

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Please select 

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If not, is one in 
development ? 

Y/N 

Y/N 

Y/N 

If not, is one in 
development ? 

Y/N 

Y/N 

Y/N 

Y/N 

Y/N 

Y/N 

Y/N 

Y/N 

Y/N 

Y/N 

Y/N 

Y/N 

Y/N 

Y/N 

Can you provide an estimate of 
the total costs of actions 
planned under this strategy ? 
[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 
Can you provide an estimate of 
the total costs of actions 
planned under this strategy ? 
[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

Can you provide a link to 
the national strategy/plan? 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

Can you provide a link to 
the sectoral strategy/plan? 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

[free text] 

Does the region benefit from 
substantial funding for adaptation 
action in the following sectors ?  

Please indicate the main 
source of funding 
available. 

Please indicate the type 
of funding available. 

If you selected "Multiple", 
please list the different types 
below. 

Please, estimate the total 
amount of funding 
available. 

Can you provide a link 
to relevant major 
projects/programmes 
? 

Other 
sectors 
covered ? 

If several sectors are covered by a single funding stream, this only needs to be indicated once. Please, fill in the cells for the sector benefitting the most from that funding stream and refer to other sectors 
covered in Column H.  

Agriculture 

Y/N 

Fisheries and aquaculture 

Y/N 

Forestry 

Y/N 

Energy 

Y/N 

Tourism 

Y/N 

Construction and building 

Y/N 

Transport 

Y/N 

Waste   Y/N 

Soil 

Y/N 

Health 

Y/N 

Biodiversity 

Y/N 

Coastal Zone Management 

Y/N 

Water 

Y/N 

Disaster and risk 

Y/N 

Please select 

Please select 

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LEGAL NOTICE 

This document has been prepared for the European Commission however it reflects the views only of the 
authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information 
contained therein. 

More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://www.europa.eu). 

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2021 

PDF  

ISBN 978-92-76-30292-6 

doi: 10.2834/403972 

 ML-02-21-207-EN-N 

© European Union, 2021 
Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.  The reuse policy of European Commission 
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