Update on the status of LED-lighting world market since 2018.
Date: 2021-01-15
Institutions: Joint Research Centre
Subjects: energy consumption, energy efficiency, energy research, energy technology, lighting, market research, multinational enterprise, research report, technical standard

Update on the Status of LED-Lighting 
world market since 2018 

Update on the Status of LED-Lighting 
world market since 2018 

Zissis, G., Bertoldi, P., Serrenho, T. 

2021

1 

EUR XXXXX XX 

EUR 30500 EN 

This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It 
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of its frontiers or boundaries. 

Contact information 
Name: Paolo Bertoldi 
Address: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy 
Email: Paolo.Bertoldi@ec.europa.eu 

EU Science Hub 
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc 

JRC122760 

EUR 30500 EN 

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ISBN 978-92-76-27244-1 

ISSN 1831-9424 

doi:10.2760/759859 

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2021 

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Table of Contents 

Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 

1 

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 

2 

2.1.1 

Lamps & luminaires 

Technological Advances ......................................................................................................................................................................... 8 
2.1  White-light Light Emitting Diodes (W-LEDs) and LED lamps/luminaires ........................................................................ 9 
14 
2.2  White-light Large Area Diffuse emitters (W-LAD) ...................................................................................................................... 18 
2.3  White-light Laser Systems emitters (W-LS) ................................................................................................................................... 21 
21 
23 
2.4  Lighting systems .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 24 

Laser Activated Remote Phosphor systems 
Supercontinuum lasers 

2.3.1 
2.3.2 

3 

Update from the LED industrial ecosystem 

3.1.1  Market by segments 
3.1.2  Market by world regions 
3.1.3 

Market Evolution ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 27 
3.1  Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) and lamps/luminaires ................................................................................................................. 28 
28 
35 
53 
3.2  Organic LEDs ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 57 
57 
57 
58 
3.3  Smart & Human-centric Lighting .......................................................................................................................................................... 61 
65 

3.2.1  Market size & segments 
3.2.2 
3.2.3 

Pricing and manufacturing costs 
Industrial ecosystem 

Industrial ecosystem 

3.3.1 

4 

References ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 67 

5 

List of abbreviations and definitions .......................................................................................................................................... 73 
5.1  Currency conversion rates (as in August 2020) ........................................................................................................................... 73 

List of figures .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 74 

List of tables ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 77 

i 

Executive Summary 

This report, based on the compilation of more than 160 recent documents, is an update of previous analysis 
published by the JRC in 2018, 2014 and 2013. It brings new insight into the progress of Solid-State Lighting 
Technology and Lighting Systems as well as an overview of the world market evolution by world region and by 
end-use sector. The last evolutions in the industrial ecosystem are also covered. Furthermore, the impacts of 
technology evolution, like smart lighting, on the energy, environment and natural resources are highlighted. The 
initial effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are also included, even if it is rather early to draw final conclusions. 

Artificial  light  energy  consumption  is  around  2  900  TWh,  corresponding  to  16,5%  of  the  world’s  annual 
electricity production. Even if this quantity is still very high, it should be noticed that until the beginning of 2010, 
electrical light sources were considered responsible for an energy consumption of around 2 651 TWh, which 
represented roughly 19% of world's total electricity consumption. This tendency suggests the beginning of a 
harnessing  of  consumption  that  can  be  explained  by  the  increase  of  light  system  efficiency  when  keeping 
service levels stable (measured in quantity of light). 

Today,  the  importance  and  application  of  these  “legacy”  lighting  technologies  is  decreasing.  During  the  last 
decade, SSLs-Solid-State Lighting, based on components like LEDs, OLEDs and LDs, challenges conventional 
technologies.  In  particular,  LED  has  turned  into  a  game  changer  beating  conventional  technologies  on  all 
aspects. It is therefore anticipated that in the short term, all electric lighting will be based on SSLs. Today, SSLs 
proceed to the projected conclusion: replacing all legacy technologies; a major change in the lighting market 
that  is  considered  revolutionary.  The  current  LED-based  systems  penetration  is  40-45%  and  growing.  The 
massive adoption of SSLs in the next years alone can contribute to reduce electricity use for lighting, up to 4% 
by 2030, but a “rebound effect” can seriously undermine this prediction. One potential solution to avoid that 
negative effect consists in switching to smart human-centric lighting driven by both “application efficiency” and 
quality of light. This just means that next gen lighting systems should provide the “Right Light” with the best 
efficiency and quality, when and where it is needed. 

Last years’ technological advances concern both components and lighting systems. Performances of packaged 
W-LEDs are still improving every single year, even if some signs of saturation start to appear. The improvements 
concern  several  characteristics  like  luminous  flux  and  luminous  efficacy  (LE),  white  colour  quality  and  CRI. 
Furthermore, cost per generated lumen by packaged LEDs is still decreasing.  

Today, the production of white light from phosphor converted LEDs (pcw-LEDs) is a fully mature technology, 
while package’s LED is still improving. The forecasted ultimate goal for packaged pcw-LEDs is as high as 255 
lm/W. In many developed countries, the efficacies of LED lamps available for residential use are already 110 
lm/W to 130 lm/W, and they need to increase to an average of 160 lm/W by 2030 to meet DOE’s SDS ambitions. 
Organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) have also been considered for several years as a promising technology 
for solid-state lighting sources, thanks to their high-quality and healthy  white light. Their penetration in the 
domain of lighting is more complex but still possible. To fully penetrate lighting, OLEDs must overcome the 
challenges in reducing cost and in commercialising the high-efficacy performance that has been demonstrated 
in the lab. The idea to replace blue LEDs by blue laser diodes (LDs) has been demonstrated in early 2000’s. 
Since  then,  several  academic  laboratories  and  industry  development  departments  across  the  world  are 
interested in the technology and its potential extension to lighting. 

Professional market analysts estimated that the global lighting market size reached US$ 118,33 billion in 2019 
and is projected to reach US$ 163,72 billion by 2027, exhibiting a CAGR of 4,3% during the forecast period. In 
2019  general  lighting  represented  79%  of  the  above  figure,  followed  by  the  automotive  lighting  segment. 
Further forecasts show that the market for SSL source components will grow from US$ 20,4 billion in 2018 to 
US$ 32,3 billion in 2024, at 8% CAGR between 2018 and 2024. COVID-19 pandemic has already impacted the 
lighting market across the globe, and undoubtedly it will continue to show its effects. Further, the world trade 
of  lighting  fixtures  among  the  70  countries  representing  the  whole  global  production  and  97%  of  global 
consumption has expanded in terms of both imports (US$ 42 billion; +4,3% YoY) and exports (US$ 42 billion; 
+5,1% YoY). The European Union (EU) lighting market is expected to grow from € 16,3 billion in 2012 to € 19,8 
billion in 2020 [CBI-14] and it will surpass a remuneration of US$ 30 billion by 2024. 

Historically speaking, past century’s research and development focused on single energy efficacy enhancement. 
As  SSL  technology  matures,  maximising  the  energy  savings  from  connected  SSL  systems  will  become 

1 

 
 
increasingly dependent on the successful integration into the built environment. Furthermore, we are witnessing 
a transition from the conventional “analogue” lighting technologies to “digital” lighting. Intelligent lighting will 
become the backbone for smart homes and smart cities. This way, lighting will become the heart of the “Internet 
of Things”. Consequently, we knowingly were not serving society as effectively as we could. Industry has coined 
a new term “human-centric lighting” (HCL) to draw renewed attention to its primary effort to be successful in 
meeting society’s needs. 

2 

 
 
 
 
1  Introduction 
The human race has always known that fire and heated objects emit light that can be used for lighting purposes; 
this knowledge led up to the discovery of artificial lighting. Since the end of the 19th century, artificial lighting 
has  been  the  subject  of  a  continuous  and  fascinating  evolution;  20th-century  scientists  and  development 
engineers worldwide created such a wide range of lighting solutions for every lighting application. Today, the 
importance and application of these “legacy” lighting technologies is decreasing. In fact, as the International 
Energy  Agency  underlines,  the  momentum  created  by  the  ongoing  phase-out  of  incandescent  and  halogen 
lamps as well as declining shares of fluorescent technologies is raising lighting efficiency globally. This is a 
considerable improvement relative to the early 2000s when incandescent lamps were being partially replaced 
by equally low-efficiency halogens in many parts of the world, including Europe [IEA-19]. 

Figure 1: A rapid summary of global lighting impact today (the equivalent CO2 emissions per capita are from [WBG-14]) 

Figure 1 gives a rapid overview of the importance of artificial lighting today. Artificial light production absorbs 
around 2 900 TWh [UND-17] corresponding to 16,5% of the world’s electricity annual production1. Even if this 
quantity  is  still  very  high,  it  should  be  noticed  that  until  beginning  of  2010,  electrical  light  sources  were 
considered  responsible  for  an  energy  consumption  of  around  2  651  TWh  [IAE-05]  (3  418  TWh  per  annum 
following  Brown  who  included  the  associated  power  losses  in  electricity  transport  lines  [BRO-09]),  which 
represented roughly 19% of the world's total electricity consumption. This tendency suggests the beginning of 
a harnessing of consumption that can be explained by the increase of light system efficiency when keeping 
service levels stable (measured in quantity of light). This is more than encouraging because in 2013 projections 
by the International Energy Agency (IEA) shown that if governments only rely on legacy policies (e.g. exclude 
ban of incandescent/halogen lamps), global electricity use for lighting will grow to around 4 250 TWh by 2030, 
corresponding to an increase of more than 40% [IEA-13]. As a comparison, it should be noticed here that some 
projections show that electricity consumption for data centres and associated IT will rapidly overcome lighting, 
accounting for 20% of the world’s electricity by 2030 [COU-20].  

During the last decade, SSLs-Solid-State Lighting based on components like LEDs, OLEDs and LDs, challenges 
conventional  technologies.  In  particular,  LED  has  turned  into  a  game  changer  beating  the  conventional 
technologies on all aspects. It is therefore anticipated that in the short term, all electric lighting will be based 
on SSLs. Yole’s analysts forecast that the SSL source market will grow from US$ 20,4 billion in 2018 to US$ 
32,3 billion in 2024, at 8% CAGR between 2018 and 2024. [YOL-19] 

Today,  SSLs  proceed  to  the  projected  conclusion:  replacing  all  legacy  technologies,  this  major  change  is 
considered revolutionary in the lighting market. The massive adoption of SSLs alone in the next few years can 
contribute to harness electricity use for lighting, up to 4% by 2030. Further, as shown in Figure 2, the adoption 
of Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) or/and the use of the Best Available Technology (BAT) can 
lead  to  more  drastic  savings  (up  to  an  additional  21%).  From  its  side,  the  US  Department  of  Energy  (DoE) 
estimates that if BAT efficiency follows the expected track, the savings attained by 2035 could amount to 4,8 
quads (~1 400 TWh) per year in the US only [DOE-20]. 

Moreover, according to an IHS report in 2017, LEDs lighting helped to avoid half a billion tons of CO2 from our 
atmosphere. The analyst wanted to share these savings among the main packaged LED manufacturers based 

1 World electricity production in 2017: 17 535 TWh [ENR-19] 

3 

 
 
 
                                                                 
on  the  market  shares.  [IHS-17]  Developing  and  emerging  economies  could  save  US$  40  billion  worth  of 
electricity and prevent 320 Mt of carbon pollution annually simply by transitioning to LED lighting. [HOR-17] 

Figure 2: Variation of electricity Savings/Losses for lighting till 2030 following different scenarios. The “Base” line is 
calculated extrapolating observed consumption values, the reference year is set to 2017; BAU (Business as usual) 
scenario admits massive replacement of legacy light sources by LEDs; MEPS scenario suppose the adoption of Minimum 
Energy Performance Standards worldwide; BAT scenario supposes the use of the Best Available Technology in the market. 
Data from [SCO-17] modified by G. Zissis 

Figure 3: Greenhouse emission savings thanks to LED lighting reattributed to packaged-LED manufacturers. Data from 
[HIS-17] 

However, this model doesn’t take into account the behaviour of the end-user and excludes the action of the 
“rebound effect” 2 that tends to offset the beneficial effects of the new technology or other measures taken. 

2 In energy economics, the rebound effect is the reduction in expected gains from new technologies that increase the efficiency 

of resource use, because of behavioral or other systemic responses.  

4 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                 
For instance, the energy savings could be eroded as people find new uses for the inexpensive lights3. As related 
by the Pulitzer Prize-winning Phil McKenna, Thomas Theis (director of the Institute for Environmental Science 
and Policy at the University) said "I am doubtful that we will save any energy by going to LED lights". [MCK-15] 
Hicks et all elaborated various scenarios to illustrate the rebound effect on the average annual US household 
consumption. [HIC-15]  

Figure 4: Results of rebound effect on the average US-household annual electricity use for lighting. Original data from 
[HIC-15] modified by G. Zissis 

Figure 4 shows the impact of the rebound effect under 2 scenarios – Scenario 1: Individual households don’t 
use more light as the cost of lighting decreases but population growth and increasing in housing size over time 
result in increase of energy demand for lighting; Scenario 2: Energy use increases over time because individual 
households demand more light as the cost of lighting decreases and lit areas increase as a result of population 
and housing area growths. Both scenarios show that the LED “effect” will vanish somewhere in between 2065 
and 2070. This is not acceptable; solutions are then necessary to solve the issue. One potential solution consists 
on switching to smart human-centric lighting driven by both “application efficiency” and quality of light. This 
just means that next gen lighting systems should provide the “Right Light” with the best efficiency 
and quality, when and where it is needed. 

3 This has been demonstrated in the historic paper by Tsao et al: LEUKOS 6(4), pp. 259–281, doi: 

10.1582/LEUKOS.2010.06.04001 (2010) 

5 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                 
Figure 5: The evolution of modern lighting systems responds to society and consumers needs [ZIS-20] 

Historically speaking, past century’s research and development focused on single energy efficacy enhancement. 
As  SSL  technology  matures,  maximising  the  energy  savings  from  connected  SSL  systems  will  become 
increasingly dependent on the successful integration into the built environment. Figure 5 traces the evolution 
in electric lighting systems from its invention until mid-21st century. 

Furthermore, we are witnessing a transition from the conventional “analogue” lighting technologies to “digital” 
lighting. Intelligent lighting will become the backbone for smart homes and smart cities. This way, lighting will 
become the heart of the “Internet of Things”. 

Consequently, we knowingly were not serving society as effectively as we could. Industry has coined a new term 
“human-centric  lighting”  (HCL)  to  draw  renewed  attention  to  its  primary  effort  to  be  successful  in  meeting 
society’s needs. 

As LightingEurope [LEU-13] said, “For a long time, the lighting industry has designed products to fulfil our visual 
needs.  With  the  economic  crisis  persisting  and  the  awareness  of  sustainability  increasing,  customers,  policy 
makers and industry have discovered the energy savings potential of light sources, such as compact fluorescent 
lamps and  LED. While energy efficiency and durability of LED modules is  widely known in the market, little 
attention has been paid to their advanced controllability and related applications. However, modern trends of 
people migrating to cities, spending more time in interior rooms, and living longer have amplified 
efforts to provide a healthier indoor environment. Lighting is not neutral in terms of human health, 
and  adverse  effects,  such  as  disturbance  of  sleep/wake  cycles,  mood  disorders  and  possibly  even  cancer 
pathologies may be the consequences of ignoring new findings on non-visual effects of light. For this purpose, 
a diversity of light sources with different biological effectiveness, bigger surfaces that reflect or emit light and 
light management systems that control the proper timing of lighting are needed. Improving lighting quality has 
a known impact for vision and health. Therefore, there are possibilities for application in nearly all situations of 
our daily lives.” 

As  SSL  technology  matures,  maximizing  the  energy  savings  from  connected  SSL  systems  will  become 
increasingly  dependent  on  the  successful  integration  into  the  built  environment.  The  replacement  of  legacy 
lighting infrastructure with LED products offers the potential for future connected lighting systems (CLS) 
that could become a data-collection platform, enabling greater energy savings in buildings and cities. Connected 
lighting is a catch-all term, a marketing buzzword used to describe any kind of lighting equipment that has an 
element of intelligence or connectivity to it. Each fixture or bulb in a connected lighting system has its own 
unique hardware address, though most will need a separate “bridge” to connect the bulbs to the internet. There’s 
a variety of features that would come under the blanket term of connected lighting, so let’s take a look at some 
of the features to look out for. At the most basic level, lighting systems combine luminaires and controls. [BRU-
13] 

Recent advancements in solid-state lighting, the “LEDification of lighting”, have led to breakthroughs in light 
source efficiency and lifetime. However, the real revolution, the digitization of lighting is yet to come and will 
involve a paradigm shift from a lighting component approach to an application centric approach. [KLA-13] 

6 

 
 
 
In  fact,  LED  technology  affords  opportunities  for  integrating  controls  directly  into  luminaires.  Intelligent  or 
connected luminaires can, in turn, integrate with Information Technology (IT) networks in cities and facilities, 
and  with  lighting  management  software  systems  that  offer  new  capabilities  for  monitoring,  control, 
optimization, and autonomy. 

Such connected lighting systems can not only drastically improve the energy performance of lighting and other 
technical systems, but also enable a wide array of services, benefits, and revenue streams that would enhance 
the value of lighting systems. For a long time, the lighting industry has designed products to fulfil our visual 
needs with a special focus on energy savings. This model is now obsolete, because of modern trends of people 
migrating to cities, spending more time in interior rooms, and living longer have amplified efforts to provide a 
healthier indoor environment. Human Centric Lighting (HCL) is becoming the next big step in lighting. Within 
the range of human centric lighting systems, two major distinctions can be made: on one hand, biologically 
effective lighting represents lighting systems that are appropriate to stimulate the biological organism, thus 
improving cognitive performance; on the other  hand, emotionally effective lighting systems are  designed to 
create emotionally stimulating environments and appealing atmospheres. [LEU-13] Thus, human centric lighting 
simultaneously  considers  our  requirements  for  good  vision  as  well  as  our  emotional  and  biological  needs. 
Human Centric Lighting coupled with smart lighting is of course the best option. 

In  a  smart  lighting  configuration,  luminaires  are  uniquely  identified  and  seamlessly  integrated  into  the  IT 
network in a building or city, and share information about their status and operations. Outfitted with integrated 
sensors,  each  luminaire  becomes  a  point  of  intelligence  that  can  share  information  on  occupancy,  activity 
patterns, changes in temperature or humidity, daylight levels…  

Furthermore, by integrating wireless communications into the lighting system, location-based services and in-
context  information  can  be  delivered  via  mobile  apps  to  people  in  illuminated  spaces.  Thanks  to  mesh 
functionality, the wireless network finds the best communication path. The system can include self-
healing and re-routing features. Even in the worst-case scenarios, the data transmission rate remains 10 
times higher compared to a powerline communication without interference. 

With integrated wireless communications, connected lighting systems can deliver completely new experiences. 
Visual  light  communications  (VLC)  use  the  LED  beam  itself  to  send  a  data  signal  to  the  camera  of  a 
smartphone running a mobile app. Coded light provides highly accurate positioning, with high precision in the 
space. In tandem with VLC, systems can use Wi-Fi, Bluetooth low energy, or other wireless communications to 
deliver in-context information and location-based services. [HUN-15]. 

Silvair experts believe that smart technologies will fundamentally change the business model of the lighting 
industry and force all serious market participants to join the revolution or be left on the side-lines. However, 
this collision of the worlds of Internet of Things (IoT) and lighting is still in its infancy, making it 
difficult to predict which of the current trends or standards will come to dominate. [SLV-15] In fact, 
as  Kirk  Bloede,  Woodside  Capital  Partners,  expects  smart  technologies  have  the  potential  to  bring  a 
massive breath of fresh air to the lighting sector, which has recently been dealing with a number 
of  challenges.  The  integration  of  digital  technologies  to  create  “smart”  lighting  systems  out  of  previously 
“dumb” systems has led to the idea of “Lighting 2.0”, the idea that lighting can now communicate and interact 
with its environment and the people or things in it. The opportunities that these offer are only beginning 
to emerge, and are expected to increase in range and scope as the LED revolution progresses. [BLO-
15] 

Additionally,  the  deployment  of  smart  lighting  systems  will  inevitably  push  to  an  economic  model 
transformation,  leasing-type  models  and  ‘pay-as-you-use’  services  are  expected  to  grow.  The  Light-as-a-
service (LaaS) is one among them. This LaaS concept is expected by most market participants to pick up as a 
service  offering  in  the  future.  Key  advantages  for  the  end-customer  is  the  ability  to  use  new  technology, 
increase comfort levels and  bringing  related energy  savings, whilst taking away the  up-front weight on the 
balance sheet of customers. [FRS-15] Of course, this model would apply first in smart buildings, then to smart 
home and smart street lighting. 

7 

 
 
 
2  Technological advances 
Last years’ technological advances concern both components and lighting systems. All these advances serve at 
least one of the following objectives: 

•  Objective  1:  Increasing  the  efficiency  and  reliability  in  all  levels  from  the  component  to  the  global 

system. 

•  Objective  2:  Reducing  the  cost  of  the  components  and  single  lamps  and  using  more  sustainable 

materials. 

•  Objective 3: Enhancing the quality of light associated to the comfort and more focusing on lighting 

application efficiency (LAE). 

•  Objective 4: Implementing new functionalities and services beyond basic illumination for vision and 

visibility. 

Since mid-2010 we have been observing a net increase of proposed technological advances at systems level, 
whereas  innovations  at  component/device-level 4 rarefy.  Today,  we  can  identify  a  number  of  areas  where  
potential enhancement at component/device level still exists, as shown in Table 1.  

Table 1: Potential advances in R&D at component/device level, the objective’s number refers to the list given in the 
previous paragraph. 

Domain 

R&D efforts and Improvement domains 

Concerned Objective  

White-light Light 
Emitting Diodes 

White-light Large 
Area Diffuse emitters 

Improving  basic  understanding  of  LED  material-device-synthesis 
relationships [DOE-20] 

Objective 1, 
Objective 2 

Understanding and Improving quantum dot down converters for on-chip 
LED usage [DOE-20] 

Objective 1, 
Objective 3 

High  Luminance  Emitters:  Improving  efficiency  at  high  luminance  to 
enhance optical control, including device structures and phosphors. [DOE-
20] 

Objective 1, 
Objective 3 

Advancing  the  efficiency  and  lifetime  of  emitter  materials  and  device 
architectures for low profile, diffuse, and direct emitters [DOE-20] 

Objective 1 

Improve  light  extraction  efficiency  and  optical  control  for  low  profile, 
diffuse direct emitters [DOE-20] 

Objective 1 

Developing  phosphors  that  converts  the  laser  light  to  eye-safe,  broad-
spectrum, incoherent white light [OVE-17] 

Objective 3 

White-light Laser 
Systems emitters 

Developing  phosphors  that  can  support  temperature  elevation  due  to 
Stokes shift losses [TRI-18] and support better long-term effects of intense 
radiation exposures [CZE-18] 

Objective 1 

Developing  efficient  supercontinuum  white  laser  sources  coupled  with 
optical fibres [GRA-19] 

Objective 1 

There are much more progress to achieve in the domain of global lighting systems as shown by Table 2. 

4 In this text we consider as “component" a single encapsulated small size electronic component whereas “device” corresponds 
to a larger encapsulated emitting element; both are drive-less but can include some reverse-current protection elements. 
“Component” applies better to LEDs and LDs when “device” is more appropriated for OLEDs and laser-systems. 

8 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                 
Table 2: Potential advances in R&D at system level, the objective’s number refers to the list given in the previous 
paragraph 

Domain 

Lighting System  

Human-centric 
lighting 

Smart Lighting 
systems 

R&D efforts and Improvement domains 
Developing the Lighting Application Efficiency (LAE) Framework: 
Understanding relationships between and energy impacts of light source 
efficiency, optical delivery efficiency, spectral efficiency, and intensity 
effectiveness. [DOE-20] 
Improve power supply efficiency, functionality, and/or form factors. 
[DOE-2Ø] Reduce light flicker 
Understanding and Demonstrating Human Physiological Impacts of Light: 
Translate lab-scale human physiological responses to light understanding 
to practical guidance and understanding of impacts in realistic lighting 
situations. [DOE-20] 
Develop Connected lighting systems and LiFi communication 
Develop LaaS Concept 

Concerned Objective  
Objective 3 

Objective 1, 
Objective 3 
Objective 3, 
Objective 4 

Objective 4 
Objective 4 

2.1  White-light 

Light  Emitting  Diodes 

(W-LEDs)  and 

LED 

lamps/luminaires 

Performances of packaged W-LEDs are still enhancing every single year, even if some signs of saturation start 
to  appear.  The  enhancements  concern  several  characteristics  like  luminous  flux  and  luminous  efficacy  (LE), 
white colour quality and CRI. Furthermore, cost per generated lm by packaged LEDs is still decreasing, according 
to  IEA’s  analysis.  As  LED  efficacy  is  already  the  highest  on  the  market,  and  as  gains  in  this  area  began  to 
decelerate very recently, the question is whether LED manufacturers will be interested in fostering innovation 
to reach even higher efficacy levels. [IEA-19] Figure 6 illustrates clearly the above-mentioned enhancements. 
Further, Figure 6(b) shows that Haitz-law will remain applicable at least for a few years from now. Hung and 
Tsao calculated the theoretical upper-limits for LE for different CRIs and CCTs. [HUN-13] Figure 7 shows that, 
even if some energy losses linked to inevitable physical phenomena can’t be discarded, there is still some place 
for improvement. The same figure also illustrates two well-known facts: (a) LE decrease with increasing CRI 
and (b) above CCTs of 2 500 K, LE decreases with increasing CCT. This last fact can appear, at a first glance, 
contradictory with the adage “cool-white LEDs are more efficient than warm-white ones”. This contradiction can 
be explained by the fact of energy losses, which aren’t included in the previous model and are higher in warm-
white LEDs. Concerning luminous flux, we should notice the very recent announcement in LpR journal, claiming 
that Luxeon HL2X delivers more than 318 lm at 700 mA and 85°C junction temperature, a record value. [LPR-
20] 

9 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 6: (a) Best performing LED announcements for Luminous Efficacy; (b) Luminous flux par package; (c) cost per 
emitted lumen by the package.  

(a) 

(b) 

(c) 

Figure 7: (a) Maximum theoretical efficacy for W-LEDs as function of (a) Correlated Colour Temperature and (b) Colour 
rendering index. Data from [DOE-17] 

Today’s production of white light from phosphor converted LEDs (pcw-LEDs) is a fully mature technology, 
while package’s LE is still improving, as shown in Figure 8, and there is room for improvement. The DOE based 
projections established on historical LE observed values until 2016, fixed the ultimate goal to be attained by 
packaged pcw-LEDs to 255 lm/W. [DOE-17] 

10 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 8: Luminous efficacy evolution projections and DOE Goal. Drive current density (35 A/cm2) and junction 
temperature 25°C and 3 000 K CCT. Data from [DOE-17] 

According to [DOE-17], the efficiency of blue LED has improved enormously, but it is still highest at low current 
densities. The current “best” research has seen LED packages exceed 80% efficiency, but only at relatively low 
current densities. At higher current densities, desirable for low-cost light to drive higher market penetration, the 
LED efficiencies decrease. This so-called “efficiency droop” from about 10 A/cm2 to 35 A/cm2 is about 10%, and 
to 100 A/cm2 is about 15%. The challenge will be to circumvent the key physical mechanism responsible for 
efficiency droop, Auger recombination. Auger recombination is a non-radiative carrier recombination process, 
which increases non-linearly with carrier density and hence current density. For more information, refer to the 
presentation by Nelson et al. [NEL-16] 

Looking closer at the global production cost of 3 product’s segments that pcw-LED technology englobes, namely: 
High-Power, Mid-Power and COB LEDs, DOE identified the typical costs inside the component. [DOE-20] Figure 
9 illustrates that cost breakdown. Assembly represents the higher expense for COB-LEDs when the price affects 
seriously the High-Power LED components. 

Figure 9: Cause of energy losses inside pcw-LED technologies. Data from [DOE-20] 

11 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Based on such a type of cost analysis, DOE projected the cost evolution path for the next five years (Figure 10). 

Figure 10: Pathway to the cost reduction for pcw-LED components forecasted by DOE. Data from [DOE-20] 

Even if pcw-LEDs are today the dominant technology, two other architectures have made their proof-of-concept 
in the past few years and are starting to be considered as potential substitutes of the dominant technology: 

The hybrid LED (Hy-LED) architecture is the combination of a blue LED, a yellow-green phosphor and a red 
LED to produce white light. This is a non-standard but emerging white light architecture. For example, in the 
Cree TrueWhite and OSRAM Brilliant Mix technologies, greenish-white light (deliberately shifted off the black 
body curve toward the green) from a pc-LED is mixed with a pure red component from a red LED. Initially that 
technology had the objective to increase the red content in the spectrum and thus enhance the R9 value. This 
architecture has a significant efficiency advantage over the more standard pc-LED architecture because the 
red  LED incurs no Stokes  deficit in generating red light.  Following DOE’s projections,  a luminous efficacy of 
about 280 lm/W, or an efficiency of around 68%, is considered to be the Hy-LED  upper potential. [DOE-17] 
while the efficiencies and CRIs can be higher, the main drawback of this architecture is that the package contains 
two  distinct  technology  chips:  AlInGaP  for  the  red  and  AlInGaN  for  the  blue.  This  implies  to  accommodate 
different thermal and electrical behaviours, more complex drivers and different ageing mechanisms and light 
emission drifts. Other way round it, would be to use Hy-LEDs to obtain CCT tuneable light sources that are 
fully in line with the needs of Human-Centric Lighting concept.  

Another way to obtain white light is to mix colours (at least Red, Green and Blue). This is an old idea but until a 
few years ago it was difficult to implement due to several limitations linked to the colour-LED technologies 5. 
The idea is very attractive because it allows to obtain fully colour tuneable light sources and of course CCT 
tuneable white light without using phosphors (this discards all Stokes losses that suffer pcw-LED and Hy-LED). 
Today,  with  the  arrival  of  µ-LED  technology,  the  dream  may  be  transformed  into  reality.  This  emerging 
technology is known under the term of Colour Mixing  White LEDs (cmw-LED). Overcoming the limitations 
imposed by phosphor down-conversion losses, DOE expects that the upper potential of the technology would 
be ~330 lm/W. The main drawbacks are (a) poor CRI, but this can be solved by increasing the number of mixed 
colours adding, for example, an amber chip; (b) colour stability control and generally speaking complex drivers; 
(c) as in the past, lack of efficient green and amber LEDs. R&D efforts have to concentrate in that direction to 
achieve the ambitious DOE goal fixed to 327 lm/W (this includes optical and driver losses) as shown by Figure 
11.[DOE-17]  

5 This was especially true for the green LED. 

12 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                 
Figure 11: Projections for LE evolution of cmw-LED vs pcw-LEDs. The dot-points represent measured LE for cmw-LEDs.  
Drive current density (35 A/cm2) and junction temperature 25°C and 3 000 K CCT. Data from [DOE-20] 

Figure 12 summarises the DOE projections and goals for the luminous efficacy of the 3  technologies discussed 
previously. 

Figure 12: Projection for the evolution of Les for pcw-LEDs (cool and warm white), Hy-LEDs and cmw-LEDs and goals 
fixed by DOE by 2050. Drive current density (35 A/cm2) and junction temperature 25°C. Data from [DOE-17], [DOE-20] 

GaN-based nanowire heterostructures have been sought out in recent times for their potential to generate 
emission wavelengths, varying from ultraviolet to near-infrared regions, which in turn, gives the lighting industry 
additional flexibility to develop phosphor-free white-LEDs. Nanowire LED technology is progressing. III-nitride 
based nanowire light-emitting diodes (LEDs) have received a staggering response as  a future candidate for 
solid-state lighting 6 for creating cmw-LEDs, due to their unique and exceptional features, including drastically 
reduced polarization fields, dislocation densities as well as the associated quantum confined Stark effect on 

6 This technology is also applicable to displays 

13 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                 
account of their effective strain relaxation. More specifically, AlGaN shell in InGaN/(Al)GaN core–shell LEDs leads 
to an enhancement in the carrier confinement and reduced nonradiative surface recombination that suffered 
axial  or  radially  aligned  bottom-up  nanowire  heterostructures  including  dot/disk/well-in-a-wire  or  core–shell 
structures.  III-nitride  nanowire  LEDs  are  normally  grown  on  Si  substrates,  but  as  it  has  been  recently 
demonstrated,  nanowire  LEDs  on  copper  (Cu)  are  possible.  They  exhibit  several  advantages,  including  more 
efficient thermal management and enhanced light extraction efficiency due to the usage of metal-reflector and 
highly thermally conductive metal substrates. These exceptional properties are paving the way for a whole new 
generation of optoelectronic devices for the future solid-state lighting, flexible displays and wearable electronic 
applications. [LPR-18] 

Further, Flexible LEDs are currently a topic of intense research, as they are desirable for use in many applications. 
The use on nano-wires pave the way to that. Guan et al demonstrated that polymer-embedded nitride Nano-
Wires offer an elegant solution to create flexible optoelectronic devices in which we combine the high efficiency 
and long lifetimes of inorganic semiconductor materials with the high flexibility of polymers. In these prototype 
devices, the NW arrays, which are embedded in a flexible film and can be lifted-off from their native substrate, 
can sustain large deformations because of the high flexibility of the individual NWs. Furthermore, the footprints 
of  individual  NWs  are  much  smaller  than  the  typical  curvature  radius  of  LEDs  (i.e.,  on  the  order  of  a  few 
millimetres or more). [GUA-17] 

Quantum dot LEDs (QLEDs) are based on the emission of Quantum Dots (QD) to obtain bright pure colours. 
QDs are semi-conductor nanocrystals that are able to absorb higher-energy light and convert it to lower-energy 
light. The light wavelength that quantum dots emit varies depending on their size. For example, the smallest 
dots, with a diameter of just 2nm, emit blue light. The largest particles, with a diameter of around 6nm, emit 
red light. This technology targets at a first displays’ applications, but it can be extended to lighting sectors. 

In 2017, researchers have developed a process to make light-emitting diodes by spraying a substrate with QDs 
a low-cost route to bright, flexible displays and with potential extension to lighting. They obtained quantum-dot 
LEDs are 100 times brighter than similar classic devices. The QLEDs are demonstrated by using NiO and ZnO 
as the charge transport layers fabricated via ultrasonic spray processes. The 5 mm2 QLEDs prototype is created 
by  spraying  a  series  of  three  nanoparticle  solutions  onto  a  glass  substrate,  depositing  one  layer  at  a  time. 
Excellent device performance is achieved thanks to the introduction of an Al2O3 interlayer between QDs and an 
amorphous NiO layer. Compared to that of a device without an Al2O3 layer, the efficiency of an Al2O3-containing 
device is enhanced by a factor of 539%, increasing from 3,8 cd/A to 20,5 cd/A, and it exhibits colour-saturated 
green emission (peak at 530 nm) and high luminescence (>20 000 cd/m2). [JIW-17] 

2.1.1  Lamps & luminaires 

Since 2010, the average efficacy of LED components has improved by 6-8 lm/W each year. [IEA-19] , which 
according to DOE, busted the WPE off lighting products. As a result, LED lighting products registered in the LED 
Lighting Facts database continued to grow each year reaching a mean efficacy of 102 lm/W in 2018. [DOE-20] 

Especially LED lamps, which are typically available in the residential market, have an efficacy of over 100 lm/W, 
depending  on  the  model  (e.g.  directional,  non-directional,  tubular).  As  DOE  reported  in  the  Lighting  Facts 
database, at the end of 2017 there were roughly 50 products with efficacy values greater than 177 lm/W. All 
of these products are industrial luminaires and one showed a listed efficacy of 210 lm/W. [DOE-20] 

In many developed countries, the efficacies of LED lamps available for residential use are already 110 lm/W to 
130 lm/W, and they need to increase to an average of 160 lm/W by 2030 to meet DOE’s SDS ambitions. In fact, 
some products for commercial uses such as office and street lighting have already reached or exceeded these 
efficacies. [IEA-19] 

To track the LE evolution of different LED-lamps and LED-fixtures, IEA 4E-SSL Annex collected data from various 
international databases, totalling almost 90 000 lamps and 150 000 luminaires covering the period between 
2009 and 2019, as shown in Table 3. [SSL-19] 

14 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 3: Luminous efficacy data collected by IEA 4E-SSL Annex to track the evolution during the last decade. 

This impressive database enabled experts to deduce trends by looking at the average LE values as well as the 
number of products lying in the 20, 80 and 95-percentile. Figure 13 shows the findings. It can be seen that 
higher percentile products in all categories achieved remarkable progress in the past decade.  

15 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 13: LE efficacy evolution observed using international databases.(a) non-directional LED lamps (A-shape); (b) 
directional LED-lamps (spots); (c) Linear LED tubes; (d) Indoor linear and troffer LED luminaires; (e) Low- and High-bay 
luminaires; (f) Street lighting LED-luminaires. Courtesy of IEA 4E-SSL annex. 

(a) 

(c) 

(e) 

(b) 

(d) 

(f) 

While the development can be considered spectacular, there is still room for improvement. According to DOE, 
WPE efficacy (including thermal droop, driver’s efficacy and light extraction from the luminaire) could achieve 
an 86% level by 2035, a much higher level compared to the values attained in 2019: 75% for LED luminaires 
and 64% for A-shape LED lamps, as depicted in Figure 14. If this happen, the WPE will follow the path shown 
in Figure 15. 

16 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 14: Average WPE value in 2019 for 3 types of LED lighting devices and DOE targets for 2035. Data from [DOE-
20] 

Figure 15: Average WPE of LED luminaire (any type) evolution and DOE target by 2035.  Data from [DOE-17] 

While the improvement in LED lighting product luminous  efficacy has  been impressive, it is only one of the 
beneficial features of SSL. Lighting attributes, such as spectral (colour) quality, optical distribution, intensity 
level and system reliability can be prioritised along with efficacy to provide the best lighting for the application 
and the occupants in the space.  [DOE-20] 

To include all these aspects,  DOE and other analysts/scientists/engineers think that  Luminous Efficacy is no 
longer the best metrics to account for quality. A proposal consists to replace (or to supplement) LE and WPE by 
a new metrics called “Lighting Appliance Efficacy” (LAE). This LAE metric should include at least the following 
aspects: (a) Light source efficiency of the luminaire; (b) Optical delivery efficiency; (c) Spectral efficiency; (d) 
Intensity effectiveness. [DOE-20] Precise modelling is also necessary to understand the impacts of the space 
on the light as it is supplied from the luminaire and travels to the ultimate receptor (typically a human eye). 
LEA should be the new frontier in improving the next generation of lighting systems. LEA can enable optimization 
of  the  various  factors  of  lighting  application  efficiency  according  to  understood  trade-offs  between  colour 
quality and source efficiency, for example, or optical control and source efficiency. It clearly opens the way to 
the characterisation of smart human-centric systems (see paragraph 3.4 of this report). 

17 

 
 
 
 
 
2.2  White-light Large Area Diffuse emitters (W-LAD) 
Organic light-emitting  diodes (OLEDs) have for long  been considered a  promising technology for  solid-state 
lighting sources, thanks to their healthy, high-quality white light. In fact, OLEDs, are larger in size and can be 
viewed directly, without using the diffusers required to temper the intense brightness of LEDs 7: OLEDs are by 
definition diffuse “Lambertian” type emitters. Furthermore, OLEDs have excellent mechanical properties, are 
flexible/bendable and also transparent, thus they can be added to any suitable surface, including glass, plastic 
or  metal  foil,  and  can  be  cost-effective  to  manufacture  in  high  volume,  especially  using  roll-to-roll  (R2R) 
techniques. In addition, consumers now have higher aesthetic requirements of lighting that combines life and 
art. Table 4 summarises some key features supporting the statement that OLED lighting is likely to become the 
star of next generation lighting. However, to fully penetrate the lighting sector, OLEDs need to overcome the 
challenges in reducing cost and commercialising the high-efficacy performance that has been demonstrated in 
the lab [DOE-17]. 

Table 4: What are the advantages of OLED technology for lighting that can drive the market 

Requirements 
Energy efficiency – 
environmentally friendly 

Light controllability 

Highly desirable light and 
colour quality 

Form factor 

Easy to drive and safe 

Lowering costs  

High CRI possible 
Colour tuneable 

Advantages of OLED technology 
• 
Long lifetime 
• 
High luminous efficacy and WPE 
• 
Recyclable 
• 
Increased RoHS compliance 
• 
Easy to control 
• 
Instant “ON” full-light 
• 
Dimmable, no noise 
•  Wide range of CCT 
• 
• 
•  No flicker 
•  No glare 
• 
• 
• 
•  Non-breakable, conformable, flexible, bendable 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

Large emitting area 
Low drive voltage 
Cool to touch 
Low operating temperatures 
Low blue light hazard 
Low UV content 
Scaling advantage 
Roll-to-roll process 

Lambertian/diffuse character 
Thin and lightweight 
Transparent 

Organic light-emitting diodes are now viewed as an established  mainstream technology for display applications 
in everyday consumer electronic devices. The penetration in the domain of lighting is more complex but still 
possible. Niche market segments are addressed first: Currently, automotive lighting is reported to be the most 
promising and most mature application market for OLED lighting (see 4.1 in this report).  

In fact, since Ching Tang and Steven Van Slyke’s pioneering work in Eastman-Kodak  8 which three decades ago 
demonstrated the first white OLED (W-OLED), OLED technology has continued to evolve. The luminous efficacy 
of both laboratory prototypes and lighting systems demonstrators is constantly increasing. Figure 16 shows the 
progress by tracking “record” efficacy announcements, published by specialised press and academic literature 
since 2004. 

Between 2004 and 2020, the year-on-year (YoY) luminous efficacy yield is impressive: 28% increase per year 
for  laboratory  prototypes  (all  technologies  inclusive)  and  33%  increase  per  year  for  lighting  producers 
(commercial or demonstrators). However, on the one hand, the absolute record value of 156 lm/W obtained 
independently, within 7-year interval, by NEC Corporation (Japan) and Jiangsu (China) [MER-13], [HUA-20] is 

7 LED components are, by nature, small and bright 
8 C.W. Tang and S. A. Van Slyke, Appl. Phys. Lett. 51, 913 (1987); doi: 10.1063/1.98799 1987. 

18 

 
 
 
                                                                 
65% lower of the theoretical upper limit luminous efficacy for white OLEDs is around 240 lm/W for a device 
without any out-coupling enhancements [TYA-11]. On the other hand, current commercial OLED panels provide 
an efficacy of approximately 90 lm/W lagging behind LED panels [DOE-20]. However, US DOE estimates that, 
by 2035, devices’ luminous efficacy must increase by a factor of 2 and lifespan must increase by a factor of 
3,  compared  to  2018  values,  in  order  to  consider  OLEDs  as  competitive  and  give  them  the  best  chance  to 
conquer part of the lighting market. At the same time the OLED luminaire wall plug efficacy (WPE) must attain 
more than 150 lm/W; this calculation is based on the assumption of 180 lm/W device efficacy and 88% total 
Efficiency from device to luminaire. 

Figure 16: Record luminous efficacies announced since the demonstration of the 1st White OLED (Eastman-Kodak, 1987). 
The green dots correspond to lighting panels and lamps (commercially available). 

Figure 17: US-DOE roadmap towards OLED enhancement in order to hope lighting market penetration (a) luminous 
efficacy for devices (blue) and luminaire WPE (orange); (b) Device lifespan L70B50. Data from [DOE-20] 

(a) 

(b) 

19 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
An  important  difference  from  LED  concurrent  systems  is  the  possibility  to  obtain  flexible  panels.  Bendable 
panels have been commercialised recently by OLEDWorks (USA): The characteristics of the “LumiCurve Wave” 
product are given as an example in Table 5 and they are compared to a similar rigid OLED panel commercialised 
by the same manufacturer. 

It is clear that flexible white organic light-emitting diodes (FW-OLEDs) have considerable potential to meet the 
rapidly  growing  requirements  for  lighting  applications.  To  achieve  high-performance  FWOLEDs  the  main 
challenges to address are [LUO-19]: 

• 
• 
• 
• 

the selection of effective flexible substrates  
the use of transparent conducting electrodes  
the introduction of efficient device architectures 
the exploitation of advanced outcoupling techniques for enhancing radiation output 

Table 5: (a) Characteristics of OLEDWorks LumiCurve Wave bendable panel. Data from [OLW-20]; (b) Comparison 
between a rigid and a bendable OLED panels data from [DOE-20] 

(a) 
Warm White  
CCT: 3 000 K 
CRI >90; R9 >50 
Neutral White 
CCT: 4 000 K 
CRI >90; R9 >75 
*Higher luminance means respectively 8 500 cd/m2 and 7 000 cd/m2 for the warm and neutral white products 

Luminous Flux (lm) 
Luminous Efficacy (lm/W) 
Life span L70B50 (h) 
Luminous Flux (lm) 
Luminous Efficacy (lm/W) 
Life span L70B50 (h) 

Higher luminance* 
300 
55 
10 000 
250 
43 
10 000 

L = 3 000 cd/m2 
100 
62 
50 000 
100 
47 
50 000 

(b) 

Photometric 
characteristics 
Flux: 100 lm 
L: 3 000 cd/m2 
CCT: 3 000 K 

Thickness (mm) 
Weight (g) 
Lit area size (mm x mm) 
Input power @17 V (W) 
Efficacy (lm/W) 
Life span L70B50 (h) 

Bendable 
OLEDWorks LumiCurve 
0,4 
15 
221 x 46 
1,615 
62 
50 000 

Rigid 
OLEDWorks Brite 3 
1,4 
38 
102 x 102 
1,19 
85 
100 000 

Furthermoreongoing improvements to OLED devices will require continued scientific advancements in the areas 
of emitter materials and device architectures [DOE-20]. The  key R&D challenges identified by DOE in OLED 
lighting that affect the cost and performance of OLEDs include: 

Performance materials for stable, efficient devices 
Light extraction 

• 
• 
•  Advanced fabrication technology 
• 

Luminaire design – including optical control and driver’s efficiency 

For instance, for bottom-emitting and transparent FWOLEDs, the transparent electrode should have outstanding 
optical transparency (e.g., a transmittance of >90% in the visible regime), good electrical conductivity (e.g., a 
sheet resistance of <20 Ω/sq), and mechanical flexibility. Figure 18 shows the DOE fixed target (x1,4 compared 
to  2018)  for  light  extraction  efficiency  from  a  competitive  OLED  device  by  2035.  The  quest  for  better  and 
cheaper  flexible  electrodes9 pushed  the  DOE  to  award  Prof.  Paul  Leu  from  the  University  of  Pittsburgh  and 
Texas-based Electroninks US$ 1 million to develop silver inks to replace ITO in OLED lighting panels. This can 
be achieved by using a new metal patterning technique that prints the metal grid directly on glass or plastic, 
thus creating micro-grids that can outperform ITO at a lower manufacturing cost [MER-19]. 

9 The cost of inorganic materials in OLED panel fabrication is very high (see section 3.1 in this report) 

20 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                 
Figure 18: DOE target for light extraction from the OLED devices. Data from [DOE-20] 

Another way to enhance light extraction from the device is the incorporation of micro-lens arrays (MLA). The 
paper by JH. Han et al gives an excellent paradigm of the efforts in that direction using MLA on thin film: The 
luminance enhancement observed with a 2500 mm2-large OLED was dependent on the viewing angle, and the 
largest  enhancement  (64%)  was  observed  in  the  normal  direction,  while  60  and  18%  enhancements  were 
observed at 60 and 30°, which led to lower enhancement (38%) of the total luminous flux compared with the 
luminance enhancement (64%) in the normal direction [HAN-18]. 

Other diffuse direct emitter materials, such as hybrid structures of OLEDs with QDs and perovskites, can also 
provide  this  low-illuminance  lighting  and  can  be  compatible  with  elements  of  the  OLED  architecture  and 
manufacturing process. As an example, Che-Yu Chang et al demonstrated the possibility to realise Perovskite 
native-white LEDs with CIE chromaticity coordinates of (0.3, 0.49), which are approaching the ideal pure white 
emission coordinates (0.33, 0.33). In this work, a device structure was developed for perovskite white LEDs with 
only one emissive layer. As explained by the authors, an emissive material with emission in the orange-near 
infrared range was introduced into the sky-blue perovskite layer to realise a perovskite white LED. The light 
from the emissive material and the perovskite material in different wavelength ranges is mixed to generate 
the white light emission [CHA-19]. This may open the way to native white SSL. 

2.3  White-light Laser Systems emitters (W-LS) 

2.3.1  Laser Activated Remote Phosphor systems 

The idea to replace blue LEDs by blue laser diodes (LDs) emerged in early 2000s as demonstrated by Narukawa 
et al [NAR-02]. Car manufacturer BMW has been working at least since 2011 on combining blue-emitting laser-
diode light with a phosphor to create efficient white light for car headlights [OVE-11]. The automotive world 
was  the  first  commercial  target  of  this  technology.  Since  then  several  academic  laboratories  and  industry 
development departments across the world have been interested in the technology and its potential extension 
to lighting. That way from 26 lm/W demonstrated by Narukawa et al [NAR-02] for a flux of 5 lm and a CCT of 
5800 K (CRI 85), Ledru et al in 2014 achieved a Laser Activated Remote Phosphor (LARP) white source, shown 
in Figure 19, 40 lm/W for a CCT of 4000 K (CRI 94) [LDR-14]. Since then the possibility of using violet lasers 
has  been  examined  and  by  using  semi-polar  gallium  nitride  (GaN)  laser  diodes  and  phosphors,  SoraaLaser 
manufactured white-light surface-mount devices (SMDs) that produce up to 500 lm of output from a 300 µm2 
emitting area [OVE-17]. 

21 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 19: White light obtained by exciting remote phosphor by blue light from laser Diode (40 lm/W; 4000 K; CRI: 94). Photo 
Credits: LAPLACE Laboratory [LDR-14] 

It is known that LED technology suffers from efficiency droop, which causes a gradual decrease of light emission 
efficiency as the operating current density of the device increases. This undesirable effect has two drawbacks: 
(1) the maximum achievable efficiency at higher currents is limited, (2) the maximum light density that can be 
emitted from an LED chip is strongly affected. In a solid-state Laser Diode, the stimulated emission allows the 
immediate recombination of  injected charges into the emission region, thus eliminating the droop effect. In 
fact, even though the Wall Plug Efficiency (WPE) of laser diodes (30% when electrical power density tops 10 
kW/cm2) is less than that of  LEDs (70% of the electrical  power  passing through them into light at a power 
density of 3 W/cm2) [WIE-13], due to the suppression of the droop effect, the LDs can be more efficient than 
LEDs at higher currents (Figure 20). 

Figure 20: Comparison of luminous of LDs vs. LEDs as function of forward current. Original data from [TRI-17] 

Using blue, violet or even near-UV lasers for generating white light may be hazardous to the human eye due to 
the important blue light component in the spectrum, as shown in Figure 21. It is however possible to reduce the 
blue light component by shaping the phosphor [CAT-20] as shown in Figure 22 

22 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 21: Spectrum obtained from an experimental high CRI LARP in LAPLACE laboratory [CZE-18b] 

Figure 22: It is possible to reduce the blue light component by shaping the phosphor [CAT-20] (Credits: LAPLACE 
Laboratory) 

WhileLARPs can (1) reach high CRIs using custom phosphors, (2) reduce the harmful blue-component of the 
spectrum by optimising its shape and (3) reduce the ageing effects due to the long-term exposure in intense 
radiation by choosing the right ligands and substrates, researchers expect to achieve, in the mid-term, efficacies 
as  high  as  200  lm/W,  as  reported  by  Laser  Focus  World  [OVE-13],  and  even  higher,  at  high  currents 
corresponding to high luminous fluxes. LARPs is certainly a technology with huge market potential in 
areas where high fluxes are necessary. 

Furthermore, the use of LDs paves the way to communicating lighting systems thanks to LiFi. Accordiing 
to Chao Shen (as reported by [HAL-20]]) ‘There are many advantages to using lasers. One can have 100 times 
higher speed and 100 times longer transmission distance when using laser LiFi in comparison with LED LiFi’. In 
addition, LD LiFi systems can go an order of magnitude faster than LED based systems: they can achieve 100 
Gbits/s in the next year or two. To illustrate this, we can cite the paper published in 2020 by Changmin Lee et 
al that demonstrates a 20 Gbits/s. The demonstrator was equipped with high power blue laser diodes that offer 
over 3.5 GHz of 3  dB  bandwidth, the laser-based  white light SMD  modules exhibited  a signal-to-noise ratio 
above 15 dB up to 1 GHz. [CHA-20] 

2.3.2  Supercontinuum lasers 

LARPs technology produce composite white light (blue/violet + yellow/red) it is however possible to obtain native 
white light from lasers. 

As it has been said by Granzow [GRA-19], Supercontinuum lasers are a technology that combines some of the 
properties of conventional broadband light sources (like Halogen lamps, Xenon lamps, laser-driven light sources, 

23 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
super-luminescent light emitting diodes etc.) with the unique properties of single-mode lasers: an extremely 
broad spectral coverage from ~400 nm to 2400 nm emitted as a continuum with an integrated power of up to 
several W (even tens of W). Besides well-known applications within bio and medical imaging, more and more 
new  applications  areas  have  come  up  over  the  past  decade,  including  steady-state  or  time  resolved 
measurement techniques within plasmonics, metamaterials, 2D-layered materials, carbon nanotubes, quantum 
dots, nano-optics, physical chemistry or spectroscopy, along with a wide range of applications within industrial 
metrology and inline process monitoring. 

Figure 23: Supercontinuum laser emission coveting the full visible spectrum from propagation of IR laser pulse 
(λex=1,604 µm) in a fibre (original data are public domain from Creative Commons) 

Supercontinuum is formed when a collection of nonlinear processes acts together upon a pump beam in order 
to cause severe spectral broadening of the original pump beam, there is no consensus on how much broadening 
constitutes a supercontinuum. It can be obtained by propagation of high-power pulses through nonlinear media. 
The phenomenon was first observed in 1970. Figure 23 shows the emitted supercontinuum spectrum covering 
the full visible region. 

This technology could be used for niche applications in lighting (projectors, high-bay luminaires…) in the next 
decade provide that numerous technical challenges solved. 

2.4  Lighting systems 

For several years now, sensor technology has been coupled to lighting to reduce wasted light. For example, 
occupancy sensors monitor room occupancy and turn on lighting when needed and turn it off when space is 
empty,  which  can  achieve  savings  as  high  as  30-41%  of  lighting  energy  use  in  a  household  [FRA-16].  This 
technology can be enhanced by making of IT as the era of Smart/Intelligent lighting is knocking on the door.  

In a system, we can define “Intelligent Efficiency” (IE) as the Operation of a system of devices so that they 
respond to changing conditions of the external environment, in order to maximise energy savings. [BEL-20] For 
example,  smart  lighting  in  households  adjusts  in  accordance  to  occupancy  and/or  light  levels,  thus 
demonstrating an additional IE ranging from 1 to 10% of the whole home energy use. [NEE-15] Figure 24 shows 
the road to 2035 for energy savings following the current market path and the impact of the fixed DOE goals. 
[NAV-17] 

In the domain of public street lighting,  switching to LED lighting alone will not be enough to meet cities’ 
energy  consumption  and  reduction  targets.  Adaptive,  interoperable  lighting  solutions  are  needed  to  bring 
savings to the next level, facilitated by connecting LED lamps with a central management system (CMS) over 
the internet. These networked street lighting systems allow operators to monitor and regulate light levels in 
unprecedented ways, resulting in increased energy savings and lower operational costs. The 50% energy savings 
that are realised by switching to LEDs increase to 80% when connectivity and a central management system 
are added. [GRF-19]  

24 

 
 
 
 
Figure 24: Energy savings linked to the system intelligence degree. 2015 is the basis for the comparison and the 
forecasted savings for 2035 are calculated following the current market path as well as the target values following DOE. 
Data from [NAV-17] 

Additionally, both traditional lighting poles and more advanced smart lighting installations have the potential 
to act as a smart city platform, enabling a range of other smart city applications through the integration of 
data collection devices such as sensors and cameras. Lighting infrastructure can be used, among others, as a 
basis for (a) Environment monitoring; (b) Transport optimisation (traffic management and parking); (c) Public 
and traffic safety; (d) Electric vehicle charging; (d) Wi-Fi or Li-Fi  and internet provision; (e) Digital signage and 
public communication; (f) Communication with smart/autonomous  cars; (g) Localisation services; (h) Remote 
meter reading; (i) Analytics at the edge. Moreover, anectodical, smart lighting poles can be used to fight against 
urban crimes: GE Lighting signed an agreement with STT to incorporate the gunfire sensors developed by that 
company into their LED street lighting systems. This integration is expected to differentiate GE in the market, 
while significantly reducing cost of deployment for the gunfire sensors. That way, the system can broadcast in 
real-time alerts to emergency and dispatch centres, patrol cars etc. [GRF-19] 

Lighting control systems can be wired, wireless or a combination of the two (hybrid). The system architecture 
refers to how control signals are communicated and not how a control device receives power. Although wired 
devices might be less expensive to purchase, the installation of wired solutions, particularly in retrofit scenarios, 
entail considerably more labour and materials than wireless solutions. Wireless technology offers a natural grid 
for connectivity, enhances operational efficiency and assists in developing new business avenues. The wireless 
technology also offers multiple benefits compared to the traditional wired technology, including flexibility, cost-
effective, easy installation and security, augmenting its demand in the commercial and residential market space. 
The following [OSR-18] factors Influence System Architecture Decision:  

• 

•  Building Status - Is the building already built or in the process of being built? If it is in the construction 
phase or under development, it is the most opportune time to integrate a wired lighting control system. 
For a pre-existing building, a wireless lighting control solution will probably be the best option. 
System Reliability - Although wireless technology has come a long way, there are some situations where 
a  wired  solution  is  still  the  most  reliable.  In  some  applications,  building  materials  and  technology 
interference  can  cause  wireless  systems  to  be  less  reliable.  To  mitigate  this  issue,  a  wireless  mesh 
network topology can be used. In this case, each network node (connection point on the network that can 
send, receive or store data) can communicate with every other device, and can relay messages for its 
neighbours. Mesh networks are self-healing, in that if any disruption occurs, data is automatically re-
routed helping provide better coverage and reliability. 
Scalability - A wireless system requires more nodes/repeaters (hardware) in a given radius to keep the 
signal strong in comparison to a wired system. The range, or maximum transmission distance of a signal, 
is  dependent  on  a  number  of  factors,  including  the  wireless  communications  protocol  used,  building 

• 

25 

 
 
 
 
 
structure and line-of-site obstructions. A wired system uses less hardware because it can support long 
cable runs (for example, 2500 ft.). Both are scalable,  however as building size increases, the cost of 
wiring can exceed the cost of a wireless installation. 

•  Budget - Equipment and installation costs are generally higher for wired systems. 

As related by [ENO-11], innovative and cost-effective wireless strategies, when viewed from a life cycle cost 
standpoint,  present  an  attractive  solution  for  achieving  energy  savings,  flexibility,  productivity,  reduced 
maintenance  costs  and  personal  control.  In  new  constructions,  the  ability  to  run  wire  to  enable  hard-wired 
controls  is  often  considered  a  more  cost-effective  solution,  particularly  when  a  building  owner  is  only 
considering these “first” costs. A wireless solution, in a new construction environment, can make for a difficult 
sell, unless total costs to the building owner are considered. If the project developer and the building owner are 
not on the same page, the person in charge of the building’s construction is predominantly going to care about 
first costs. When it comes to building retrofits, wireless technology provides clear advantages, since no new 
wires are required, thereby reducing labour costs. 

Today, the lighting manufacturers are shifting from traditional lighting controls and associated  protocols to 
sophisticated wireless lighting control systems and associated flexible and deep-learning algorithms. On the 
other  side,  wire-less  network  control  proprietary  or  open  protocols  are  deployed  in  the  market.  Proprietary 
protocols are usually robust and difficult to hack, but they offer a very limited interoperability. Open protocols 
mitigate  the  previous  interoperability  issues  but  their  development  needs  significant  effort  and  resources. 
Furthermore, open source systems are more subject to security failures that can compromise (intentionally or 
not) the system integrity and data privacy. The lighting industry is quickly moving in the direction of standard 
open protocols developed by a collaborative effort of experts from different organisations. 

Today, colour tuneable lighting systems are seen as fashion “must have” products, and demand is strongly 
increasing, at least for a population category. According the US Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy 
(EERE), understanding all the variations in colour tuneable products can be challenging, so it may be helpful to 
consider each product type in terms of its most common applications, control options and potential issues or 
complications. There are three basic categories of colour tuneable products [EER-20]: 

•  Dim-to-warm: These products, also referred to as warm dim, blackbody dimming or incandescent-like 
dimming, mimic incandescent or halogen dimming performance, usually designed for 2 700-3 000K at 
full output with a decrease in CCT as the output is reduced to as low as 1 800 K (the colour of candlelight). 
As with incandescent lamps, the light colour becomes increasingly warm in appearance (i.e., more yellow 
and red) as the product dims. The light colour and dimming quality of incandescent/halogen products are 
prized in such settings as restaurants, hotel lobbies and guestrooms, ballrooms, theatres and residential 
spaces. 

•  White-tuneable: Some white-tuneable products, also called tuneable white or Kelvin changing, have two 
sets of controllable pcw-LEDs: one with a warm-white colour (usually around 2 700 K) and the second 
with a cool-white colour (usually 5 000 K to 6500 K). By individually raising and lowering the output of 
the two coloured “LED primaries”, white colours between the two-colour points can be created along the 
straight line that connects them on a chromaticity diagram (this is called linear white tuning). When only 
two white PC LEDs are selected, the manufacturer must choose where the mixed colours of white will 
lie, relative to the blackbody curve. As the blackbody line is curved, two colours of white cannot track 
along the  blackbody and, the wider the range of CCTs, the greater the  maximum  deviation from the 
blackbody.  However,  recently  Tomokazu  Nada  announced  in  LpR  journal  that  his  company,  ZIGEN, 
proposes a new solution for obtaining full BBL-tuneable white LEDs using a 2-channel control process. 
[NAD-20] There are also white-tuneable products that use three or more LED primaries, in which case 
they may have the capability to produce a wider range of colours than just different CCTs of white. White 
tuning allows for changing the colour of light from warm to neutral to cool in appearance, which may be 
desirable for a range of reasons, from aesthetic to medical. 
Full-colour-tuneable: These products, also referred to as RGB, RGBA, RGBW, spectrally tuneable, or colour 
changing, usually have three or more different LED primaries that can be individually varied in output to 
create a mixture of light that is white, a tint of white or a saturated hue. The individual LEDs used in a 
full-colour-tuning mixture can be very narrow band LEDs (producing a narrow range of blue or red, for 
example),  or  monochromatic  too  but  with  phosphor  coatings  that  produce  a  slightly  wider  spread  of 
colour;  however  these  can  be  augmented  with  amber  or  whiter  pcw-LEDs,  and  other  monochromatic 
colours. The minimum number of LED colours is three for full-colour tuning, but four-, five-, and seven-
colour systems are also on the architectural lighting market, and some sophisticated colour systems use 

• 

26 

 
 
even  more  unique  colours  of  individual  LEDs.  Full-colour-tuneable  products  are  well-suited  for 
application in theatres, theme parks and restaurants. 

In  addition  to  “intelligence”,  larger-system  has  other  attributes:  The  development  of  smart  micro-grids  at 
building level pushes the deployment of DC distribution low-voltage grid inside the buildings. This is rather 
a revolution in the construction domain, and the first industrial scale demonstrators tend to validate the idea 
and put forward a series of advantages. SSLs (and more especially LEDs) pledges also to this direction. Lux 
Review [LXR-18] published a teaser entitled “10 reasons the future of lighting is DC grids” as follows: 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

Lighting has effectively gone DC thanks to LEDs. Why have the expense of local drivers for each luminaire 
when they can all be run off the same local DC network?  
The power industry is moving to distributed power generation, thanks to a switch to renewables such as 
solar panels and the advent of energy storage.  
It’s much easier to integrate battery packs such as those produced by Siemens and Tesla into DC systems 
and grids. DC to DC converters are up to 20 times smaller than AC/DC equivalents.  
There’s a significant energy loss every time power is converted from AC to DC at each device. Removing 
a stage can improve system efficiency by 5 to 10%.  
System  reliability  will  be  improved.  By  removing  AC/DC  converters,  especially  those  with  electrolytic 
capacitors, we can dramatically improve the mean time between failures.  

•  By using a relatively higher voltage such 380V DC rather than 48V DC, we can solve the challenges of 

• 

direct current such as voltage drop and increased cabling sizes, while maintaining safety.  
There’s less local  heat at the luminaires when there is no power  conversion electronics built into the 
housing,  leading  to  cooler-running,  more  efficient  and  longer  life  LEDs  and  cooler  ceiling  voids  and 
interiors.  

•  A local DC grid opens up opportunities to connect other DC devices, such as sensors and cameras, to the 

• 
• 

lighting to create a network that can use data to deliver new services.  
The technology is field proven and is used by blue-chip clients such as Carrefour and MaxMara.  
Louis Vuitton, for instance, is using DC microgrids for lighting 40 of its newer stores in both Europe and 
China.  

3  Market Evolution 
Fortune Business Inside analysts estimated that the global lighting market size reached US$ 118,33 billion in 
2019 and is projected to  reach  US$  163,72 billion by 2027, exhibiting a CAGR of  4,3% during the  forecast 
period. General lighting represented in 2019 79% of the above figure. [FBI-20] Further, the demand has risen 
in developing countries owing to the increasing population, climate change and resource scarcity. Governments 
in developing countries such as India and China are focused on developing new houses for homeless people, 
which, in turn, is driving the lighting market growth in the region. Moreover, companies in this sector are more 
inclined towards producing and selling lights at minimum rates, so that people can afford and use them for a 
long period. [FBI-20] 

According to [PSI-20], COVID-19 pandemic has impacted, and for sure, will impact the lighting market 
across  the  globe.  The  stringent  lockdown  measures  implemented  by  governments  have  led  to  the 
postponement of residential projects in countries including India and China. Additionally, the disruption in the 
supply of electrical components from China is another consequence of the pandemic on the LED lighting market. 
Further,  lack  of  availability  of  raw  materials  for  manufacturing  light  casings,  chips  and  other  factors  has 
affected  the  supply  and  demand  for  the  lighting  industry.  The  growth  of  the  market  is  expected  to  remain 
constant  during  the  lockdown  period.  Additionally,  the  pandemic  has  affected  the  growth  owing  to  the 
immediate shutdowns in the commercial sector and industries such as automotive and retail. According to a 
survey conducted by the Lighting Industry Association (LIA) during the lockdown period 89% of LIA’s members 
reported that their business remained open and have recovered 95% of their sales. [FBI-20]  

27 

 
 
 
 
 
3.1  Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) and lamps/luminaires 

3.1.1  Market by segments 

3.1.1.1 

General Illumination (indoor and outdoor) 

As the International Energy Agency reports [IEA-19], in 2019, LED sales reached a critical milestone, achieving 
a record number of sales of more than 10 billion units, including both light sources (bulbs, tubes, modules) and 
luminaires.  

Figure 25: LED penetration rate, by sales, in rapidly increasing. Based on IEA data from the [IEA-19]. (All rights reserved; 
as modified by G. Zissis) 

Figure 25 shows that indoor LED deployment is advancing, and LED sales now exceed fluorescent lamps, as 
LED  costs  continue to fall.  In fact,  global LED use has increased substantially in recent years, rising from a 
market share of 5% in 2013 to nearly half of global lighting sales in 2019, with integrated LED luminaires 
making up an increasing share. To remain in line with the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), LEDs need 
to make up more than 90% of lighting product sales by 2030. [IEA-19]. 

Figure 25 and Figure 26 clearly show that since 2015 LED technology has been taking over large parts of the 
illumination market. However, it is interesting to underline the deviations between Statista and IEA data [IEA-
19] [STA-12]. In fact, even if Statista published its data in 2019, only 2010 and 2011 values are from surveys, 
the values for 2012 through to 2020 are just projections. As a result, Statista projections aren’t able to predict 
the revisable saturation of the market segment.  

Figure 26: LED penetration rate projected by Statista (data from [IEA-19] and [STA-12]) 

Bodo Ischebeck claims that old-fashion illumination is seen by industry as a mature and stable, ~€5 billion, 
core market for the lighting industry [ISC-18]. Osram forecasts an average 4% growth in the segment from 
2017 to 2023 and softness of General Lighting market (outdoor/industrial) expected to continue for the next 
years. [DIE-18] 

28 

 
 
 
 
 
Generally speaking, the Illumination market is segmented into Professional and Consumer as well as High Power 
and Mid Power. Professional and Consumer markets differ along four key dimensions as given in Table 6. 

Table 6: Professional vs Consumer illumination markets 

As  stated  by  Semiconductor  Today  2017  publication  relating  Yole’s  findings,  LED  lighting  module  market  is 
growing at 22,6% CAGR from US$ 4 billion in 2016 to US$ 13,8 billion in 2022, driven by mid-power modules. 
[SMT-17] The global lighting market that concerns lamps and luminaires has a much higher size (~US$ 120 
billion). Navigant roughly estimated that 75% of the global lighting market comes from luminaires/fixtures and 
25% from lamps. The share of LED technology is 10% of the unit’s sales for 36% of the global revenues. This 
average value grows to 36% in 2022, but the range and variability in estimates increases (ranging from 19% 
up to 53%). [NAV-17] Concerning the LED lighting market, Statista forecasted that global LED lighting market 
will rise from US$ 69,7 billion to US$ 98,5 billion by 2023. [STA-2019] 

According to Markets and Markets report 10 [MAM-17], the global LED lighting market is expected to be valued 
at US$ 92,4 billion by 2022 and to witness a shipment of 14,01 billion units by 2022, at a CAGR of 13,66% 
and 21,23%, respectively, between 2016 and 2022. The same source related that in the market by end-use 
application, indoor lighting is expected to have a higher growth rate than outdoor lighting. The reason for the 
large market size and high growth rate of indoor lighting is increasing infrastructural activities across the world, 
mainly focused on residential lighting. 

Another analyst at Prescient & Strategic Intelligence reported in 2018 that the global light-emitting diode (LED) 
market was valued at UD$ 30,50 billion in 2016, and is projected to advance at a CAGR of 12,6% during the 
forecast period (2017–2023)11 [PSI-18]. This figure was US$ 67,60 billion in 2019, and it is projected to witness 
a CAGR of 12,9% during the forecast period (2020–2030). [PSI-20] 

Further, the report from Grand View Research published in 2019 and based on historical data from 2015 to 
2017, estimated the global LED lighting market size was valued at US$ 45,57 billion in 2018 and forecast an 
expansion at a CAGR of 11,8% over the 2019-25 period. The same report relates that the indoor segment was 
valued at over US$ 31,70 billion in 2018 and is expected to witness stable growth throughout the forecast 
period. [GVR-19]  

According to the market research report published by P&S Market Research in 2018, the global LED lighting 
market size is projected to cross US$ 70,2 billion by 2023, growing at a CAGR of 12,6% between 2017-2023. 
[PSM-18] 

Figure 27 summarises the various forecasts and a good agreement among all of them is visible. The same 
observation concerns the CAGR values, thus we can adopt an average value of 12% for the period 2016-23.  

LED prices continue to fall as the estimated 38 billion cumulative sales of LED lighting products in the past five 
years have generated economies of scale. Not only is competition among manufacturers making standard LED 
products more affordable, but further innovation is presenting customers with a  wider choice of prices and 
products.  [IE-19]  China  has  taken  the  lead  in  manufacturing,  benefitting  from  considerable  government 
subsidies and incentives, and prices have fallen substantially to US$ 3-5 per LED light bulb. Prices are similar 
in many European markets and in North America. 

10 The base year considered for this report is 2015, and the market size forecast is provided for the period between 2016 and 

2022. 

11 The market for retrofit LEDs is projected to register higher CAGR, of 16,3%, during the forecast period (2017-23) [PSI-18]. 

29 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                 
Figure 27: Global LED Lighting market forecasts by various analysts. Data origins are marked on the plot, data with red 
dots are data projections from [STA-19] 

As claimed by CSIL analysts [CSI-19d], in 2018, the world trade of lighting fixtures among the 70 countries 
representing  the  whole  global  production  and  97%  of  global  consumption  has  expanded  both  in  terms  of 
imports (US$ 42 billion; +4,3% YoY) and exports (US$ 42 billion; +5,1% YoY). The expansion of the sector was 
driven by an increase in lighting fixtures production (+4,6%) and consumption (+4,3%) over 2018.  

Even if LED penetration remains uneven across many markets, and sales are typically lower in relative terms 
for lamp replacements than for newly built buildings, many companies and governments are enacting measures 
to enlarge the share of LEDs in existing residential, public and commercial buildings. [IEA-19] 

The worldwide market for lighting fixtures is expected to reach more than US$ 107 billion by 2023. China is 
the largest producer and exporter of lighting fixtures, when, United States is the main consumer and importer 
(the value of its lighting fixtures imports has risen by 6,5% in 2017). During 2018 the world trade of lamps 
offered a mixed picture: exports fell by 5,4%, while imports increased by 3,7%. Overall, it was worth US$ 16 
billion. [CSI-19d].  

The retrofit category, based on installation type, is projected to experience faster growth in the LED lighting 
market untill 2030. The growth is attributed to the increasing replacement of sodium-vapor and incandescent 
lamps with LED lights, in countries such as India, Japan, China, the U.A.E., the US, and South Korea. The strong 
demand for retrofit LED lamps in these countries, due to the phasing out of incandescent bulbs, is expected to 
further boost the LED lighting market. [PSI-20] 

Public street lighting is an essential element of urban environment and is responsible for typically ~40% of 
a city’s overall electricity costs. There are currently 317 million total streetlights in the world. This number will 
grow to 363  million total streetlights by 2027.  [NEG-17]  In 2012, 10% of new  public  streetlights were LED 
based, and this figure is expected to rise to 80% by 2020. [GRF-19] Based on more recent data, Statista reported 
in 2019 the value of the global outdoor lighting market amounted to about US$ 10,7 billion and forecasted to 
rise to US$ 23,8 billion dollars by 2030. [STA-20d] 

The Northeast Group estimates that Across 125 countries, 264 million LED streetlights will be added over the 
next ten years, reaching a penetration rate of 89% by 2027. [NEG-17] Replacing legacy SHP lighting by modern 
LEDs, that offers longer lifetimes, lower energy consumption and reduced maintenance expenses, represent a 
typical payback periods range from 4 to 12 years for a city [SCC-15]. As of 2016, the Northeast Group has 
identified more than 1 000 unique LED streetlight projects in over 90 countries. [NEG-16] Global investment, 
from 2017 to 2027, in public LED street lighting will be US $53,6 billion. [NEG-17] 

Globally [SCC-15] forecasted an investment of US$ 57 billion in LED lighting. Similar estimations come from 
Northeast Group, forecasting a US$ 64,2 billion market opportunity over the next decade (2017-27). The largest 
market segment will be cobra-head LED streetlights, which will be worth US$ 36,1 billion over the next ten 

30 

 
 
 
 
 
years. Decorative LED streetlights will have a value of US$ 14,1 billion and high wattage LED streetlights will 
have a value of US$ 3,3 billion over the forecast period (2017-27). [NEG-17] 

In the near term, the largest markets will be North America, Europe and South Asia, with adoption being driven 
by cities looking to reduce high energy and labour costs.  

In any case, all analysts agreed, on the one hand, that decreasing cost of LED lights is one of the major factors 
driving their adoption across several applications, including residential, commercial and architectural lighting. 
On the other hand, they observed that lack of awareness regarding new installations of LED lighting solutions 
and large payback period of the installation have led to the slow adoption of LED lighting solutions, globally. 
Awareness  level  of  the  total  installation  cost,  payback  period  of  LED  lights,  return  on  investment  (ROI)  and 
energy savings among consumers is low, mainly in countries such as India, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Indonesia 
and  Canada.  Due  to  this,  the  consumers  use  either  traditional  lighting  solutions  or  other  low-cost  energy 
efficient lighting sources, such as CFLs and LFT lamps. This is likely to hinder the growth of the LED lighting 
market. 

3.1.1.2 

Automotive lighting 

Initially, LED technology use had been limited to high-end vehicles and has had to compete with traditional light 
sources, namely halogen and HID lamps. Improved LED performance, lower power consumption and flexible 
design were the first enablers. Then, cost reductions helped LED technology spread to all vehicle categories 
[YOL-17]. However, automotive lighting is a very stringent segment that requires (1) highest quality standards 
across value chain; (2) sustained commitment due to long time to market; (3) Availability of production capacity 
subject to the potential for volume growth. Of course, OEMs and suppliers are continuously faced with price 
pressure. [LEX-18] 

During the few past years, many progresses also have been achieved in the automotive lighting segment. Glare-
free adaptive headlamps were made possible by the development of LED matrix systems splitting the front 
beam into up to 25 vertical segments. Today, the highest matrix resolution commercially available has 84 pixels 
per headlamp, making it possible for the system to create sharp masking zones. Car manufacturers and Tier-1 
equipment suppliers are now developing new technologies like very small and/or µ-LEDs, laser or Liquid Crystal 
Display  (LCD)  light  sources  with  resolutions  ranging  from  2  000  pixels  to  more  than  500  000  pixels  per 
headlamp. [YOL-17] Suji Nakamura, reported that phosphor converted-violet LD technology developed by his 
spin-off company 12 car illuminate the road to a distance between 600 m and potentially up to 1 km ahead 
when LED head-lights can go up to 300 m. This is a very important breakthrough for traffic security. [NAK-18] 

Yole analysts report that the automotive lighting market totalled UD$ 25,7 billion in 2016 and close to US$ 27,7 
billion in 2017. They estimate to reach UD$ 35,9 billion in 2022 at a 57% CAGR within the forecasted period 
2016-22.  

Figure 28: Number of automotive headlamps per technology (data from [LEX-18]) 

12 SLD Laser : www.sldlaser.com 

31 

 
 
 
                                                                 
 
If today a modern car has a number of LEDs valued to €25/vehicle it is expected to increase to €35/vehicle by 
2023. The global segment growth is forecasted to 7-9% per annum; thus, it is expected passing from €2 billion 
in 2017 to €3 billion in 2023. The new generation of LEDs, the µ-LED, will have a major role to play in this 
market  segment.  Headlamp  will  drive  the  market  growth  with  ~60-70%  of  the  surplus  [LEX-18].  Figure  28 
shows the number of headlamp units produced in 2017 and the projections for 2023. 

Yole also confirmed that automotive lighting is driven by exterior lighting and especially headlamps, generating 
more than two-thirds of the total market revenue of the segment as it can be seen in Figure 29. Further, rear 
lighting  17%  of  total  market  revenue  is  the  second  largest  area  (this  segment  is  also  targeted  by  OLED 
technology, see paragraph 4.2.1). Interior lighting represents almost 10% of revenue but growth is expected to 
be linked to the development of autonomous  vehicles and the creation of  vehicles as “living  homes”.  Other 
types of lighting, such as fog lamps, Centre High Mounted Signal Light (CHMSL) or small lamps, comprised the 
remaining 7% altogether of revenue in 2016. [YOL-17] 

Figure 29: Evolution of market size for various sectors in automotive lighting between 2016 and 2022. Data from [YOL-
17] 

Among 20 competing companies, the automotive lighting industry is in the hands of five players: Japan’s Koito 
and  Stanley,  Italy’s  Magneti  Marelli,  France’s  Valeo,  and  Germany’s  Hella.  They  received  80%  of  the  total 
automotive lighting revenue in 2016. [YOL-17] Figure 30 illustrates the market parts of the industrial ecosystem 
in 2017; it can be seen that Japan, with 2 major companies, covers more than 40% followed very closely by 
the EU with more than 39% of market shares (3 major companies). 

Asia, and mostly China, represents the next main opportunity in the automotive market, with nearly 65% of 
vehicles to be sold in the region between 2017 and 2022. Osram OS has a leading position in Chinese marker. 
[LEX-18] 

Figure 30: Automotive lighting industrial ecosystem in 2017. Data from [YOL-17] 

32 

 
 
 
 
Osram Opto Semiconductors (Germany), with close connection to more than 100 automotive OEMs, is also a 
very important and ambitious player. [LEX-18]. Osram  OS reported, that the OSRAM-Continental GmbH joint 
venture, set up by the two technology companies Continental AG and Osram, is up and running. For the joint 
venture, based to a large extend in Toulouse (France), Continental and Osram are combining their strengths to 
develop state-of-the-art and intelligent solutions for headlamps, tail and interior lighting. OSRAM Continental 
is planning growth rates of up to double digits annually for the next five years. This is based on strong growth 
in the market for LED as well as laser-based lighting modules and solutions and associated electronics. 

3.1.1.3 

Stage lighting 

The global stage lighting market is anticipated, by ResearchAndMarkets, to reach revenues of approximately 
US$3 billion by 2023, growing at a CAGR of around 4% during 2017-2023 [RAM-18]. This market segment is 
driven by the introduction of upgrades and expansion of product portfolios by leading vendors. The development 
of products with features such as ease of usage, connectivity, design, sensor technology, signal transmission 
and brightness level will revolutionise the global stage lighting market.  

3.1.1.4 

Decorative lighting 

Decorative lighting is the fourth layer of interior illumination; it helps the space sparkle and shine. It accessorizes 
the house and brings out its best features by adding decorative lighting fixtures. The decorative lighting segment 
includes: (1) Atmosphere and mood lighting; (2) Nostalgic style lighting; (3) Playful and festive lighting. 

The European market for decorative lighting is expected to continue to offer interesting opportunities. The rising 
popularity of LED lighting as an energy efficient and green solution drives the demand for new lighting concepts 
and lamp designs. 

The European market for lighting is significant and growing and in the home sector, the lion’s share consists of 
decorative lighting. Between 2014 and 2018, total imports of lighting into the European Union increased from 
€12 billion to €14 billion. The average annual growth between 2014 and 2018 was 5,1%. By comparison, global 
imports of lighting grew at an average rate of 6% between 2014 and 2018, reaching almost €37 billion in 
2018.  In  2018,  44%  of  the  total  European  import  value  came  from  developing  countries.  Imports  from 
developing countries grew significantly between 2014 and 2017, after which they remained relatively stable in 
2018, reaching €6.3 billion. The average yearly growth rate stood at 6,4% between 2014 and 2018. [CBI-20] 

3.1.1.5 

Emergency Lighting  

According  to  Prescient  &  Strategic  Intelligence  report  [PSI-18b],  the  global  emergency  lighting  market  is 
expected to reach US$ 7,4 billion by 2024, registering a CAGR of 7,6% during 2019-2024. The growing number 
of construction projects and technological advancements in lighting industry are the key factors contributing to 
the growth of the emergency lighting market. 

Based on application, the emergency lighting market is categorised into residential, commercial, industrial and 
others, wherein ‘others’ include railway station, airports and ship yards. Among these, residential emergency 
lighting is expected to be the fastest growing category in the forecast period. This would be due to increasing 
construction of residential homes predominately in APAC and MEA region. Further, several countries such as 
U.A.E, Qatar, and Brazil, are making it mandatory to install emergency lighting systems in buildings, which in 
turns is fuelling the demand for emergency lighting. [PSI-18b]  

Globally, North America with a share of 30% is estimated to be the largest emergency lighting market, in 2018 
(when MENA were at 20%, Europe ~20% and APAC in ~30%). This is attributed to increasing construction of 
commercial and residential buildings in the US, increasing the focus of the US government on energy efficient 
lighting  in  buildings,  and  strict  safety  norms  pertaining  to  installation  of  emergency  lights  in  commercial 
buildings in the country. However, the emergency lighting market in APAC is expected to witness fastest CAGR 
in the forecast period. This would be owing to growing smart home market in the region, development of smart 
cities especially in India, and increasing government initiatives supporting adoption of LED lights in India, and 
Japan. [PSI-18b] 

In Europe, in 2017, the average growth rate per year of the emergency lighting market has been approximately 
3,5% in Euros. EBITDA margin for the considered products runs around 10% along the considered period. Fifty 
(50) manufacturers hold over 90% of the European market for emergency lighting. The production is made by 
around 15% of centralised systems, 40% stand-alone systems, 45% signage/ordinary products. The incidence 
of LED on sales of emergency lighting fixtures was estimated around 20% in 2012. In 2017 it is expected to 
reach 70%. [CSI-17b] 

33 

 
 
3.1.1.6  Off-grid lighting 

Following  a  report  from  International  Finance  Corporation  (IFC)  the  global  off-grid  solar  sector  is  providing 
improved electricity access to an estimated 73 million households, or over 360 million people lack access to an 
electricity connection to the national grid [IFC-18]. As example, in Nepal, 18,28 % of household uses kerosene 
as the source of lighting (4.04 % in urban and 21.68 % in rural environments). [BIS-19] 

The sector encountered for sales of over 130 million devices since 2010, penetrating approximately 17% of 
the  global  potential  market  (60%  CAGR),  and  generating  US$  3,9  billion  in  cumulative  revenue.  Based  on 
GOOGLA data, IFC  reports that (1) ~US$  5,2 billion in economic savings to households as they switch from 
kerosene and/or other conventional fuels13 to solar lighting devices; (2) 28,6 Mt of greenhouse gas emissions 
have been avoided that way and (3) an estimated 1,9 million people have used solar lighting devices to support 
income generating activities. [IFC-18] 

IFC experts pointed out also the emergence of multiple product categories sold via cash and Pay-As-You-Go 
(PAYGO) business models, and expanding beyond lighting to increasingly include off-grid appliances. In parallel, 
the same source observed an increasing interest and commitments from investors, including commercial debt 
and equity players, since 2014. More than USD 500 million has been raised within a 2-year period (2016-17). 
Further, more than 25 countries are now engaged in partnerships with the World Bank Group (mostly in Sub-
Saharan Area) to build capacity and deploy funding to the sector. [IFC-18] 

3.1.1.7 

Horticultural lighting 

Urban farming and greenhouses are underlying drivers for the strong market growth in horticulture lighting. 
Indeed,  this  is  a  rapidly  merging  segment.  Until  2020  the  sector  has  been  dominated  by  greenhouse  non-
stacked inter-lighting. Here, LEDs have strong advantages because of better spectral match and low radiative 
heat damage of the crops. In the next few years however top-lighting in greenhouses will be dominant14. In that 
case cost reduction and strong performance are critical. LEDs expected to catch-up in 2-3 years. [DIE-18]  

The  management  of  photosynthesis  using  artificial  lighting  is  the  most  effective  way  of  influencing  the 
productivity and yield of plants.  As  Leonid Yuferev et al  recently published, the  most  favourable factors for 
growing “light-loving”  plants  are intensity, within the range of 150-220 W/m2, and optimum composition of 
radiation, with the following ratio of energies over the spectrum: 30% in the blue region (380-490 nm), 20% in 
the green (490-590 nm) and 50% in the red region (600-700 nm). [YUF-18] However, as plants also need UV-
A and UV-B radiation during the growth period, in fact UV-A and B play an important role to plant’s secondary 
metabolism,  phototropism,  shade  avoidance  and  photomorphogenesis,  [ASH-20]  LEDs  have  a  structural 
disadvantage due to their low UV emission.  

Figure 31: Horticultural lighting market for greenhouse applications (blue area) and surplus revenue linked to vertical 
farming (red dotted line). Data from [YOL-18] 

13 670  million  is  the  number  of  fuel  lamps  used  in  the  world  according  to  UNEP  producing  74  million  tons  of  greenhouse 

emissions per year. 

14 This is similar to traditional lighting configuration which is currently cost beneficial 

34 

 
 
 
                                                                 
Currently the market is driven mainly by greenhouse applications and many LED producers have entered the 
market of horticulture lighting to share the expanding opportunities when the demands in the general lighting 
market are relatively weak. In 2020 the era of vertical and indoor farming has begun, as shown in Figure 26. It 
should be noticed that today, greenhouse lighting requires a power density of ~1,2MW/ha. [WAT-18] 

According to the research conducted by LEDinside [AIC-18], the market scale of LED plant lighting will reach 
US$ 224 million in 2018 and is estimated to grow to US$ 633 million by 2022, with a CAGR of 30% during 
2018-2022. However, Yole reported that horticultural LED lighting market reached almost US$ $3,8 billion in 
2017. Yole considers that emerging applications, including urban farming, are likely to make the horticultural 
lighting market boom with a 16,4% CAGR between 2018 and 2023. [YOL-18] 

Europe, APAC region and North America are, and will remain at least until 2025, the main drivers of this market 
with equivalent shares oscillating from 37% for Europe to ~30% for the two other regions. In this context, it is 
not surprising to discover Jeff Bezos’ support for a vertical farms project in China. In a recent article, a journalist 
announced a 300 vertical farms project in China, supported by Amazon. A start-up named Plenty has raised 
more than US$ 200 million, thanks to the Softbank Group and investment funds. Entering the Chinese market, 
Plenty hopes to tap into the country’s growing demand for organic foods. [YOL-18] 

In 2017 the USA totalised a 4 million square meters of lit surfaces for horticulture. Only 1% among them where 
dedicated to vertical farming.  

Osram Opto Semiconductors (Germany) is today number one in this segment. Even if the size of the segment 
for  Osram  OS  is  estimated  to  reach  approximately  €  500  millions  in  2023,  it  can  be  considered  modest. 
Emmanuel Dieppedalle predicts a CAGR higher than 30% in the domain for the period 2017-23 and the volume 
can go up by approximately 4 times in next five years. [DIE-18]  

In February 2019, Cree, Inc. introduced a next-generation ‘XLamp,' called XP-E2 Photo Red (660nm) and Far 
Red (730nm). The newly launched product has especially been developed to provide enhanced services in the 
horticulture  sector.  These  horticulture  LEDs  increase  the  efficiency  of  LED  luminaires  and  also  shorten  the 
payback period. [FBI-20] 

3.1.2  Market by world regions 

3.1.2.1 

European Union & UK 

The European Union (EU) lighting market is expected to grow from € 16,3 billion in 2012 to € 19,8 billion in 
2020 [CBI-14] and it will surpass a remuneration of US$ 30 billion by 2024 [GMI-19b]. Following [MAM-17] 
Europe is expected to be the second largest LED lighting market by 2022. LEDs lighting is increasing its market 
share from 15% in 2012 (or even 9% in 2011) to 72% in 2020. However, more recent data show that Europe’s 
overall LED penetration rates are estimated in 2016 to be 8% of lamps and 9% of luminaires [NAV-17], lagging 
behind  previous  predictions.  This can  be partially explained by the fact that Europe  has a population with a 
relatively  high  standard  of  living.  A  key  factor  driving  the  demand  of  LED  products  in  Europe  has  been  the 
European  Union’s  policy  measures  banning  the  sale  of  inefficient  lighting  technologies.  In  fact,  phasing  out 
traditional lighting technologies will prevent over 15,2 million tons of carbon emission by 2025. [GMI-19b] That 
way,  the  European  Union  announced  new  regulations  to  phase  out  the  tungsten  halogen  and  compact 
fluorescent lamps by 2020. The new regulations under the new Ecodesign Law state a maximum standby power 
of  0,5  W  and  a  minimum  efficacy  requirement  of  85  lm/W.  The  national  governments  are  also  providing 
subsidies and incentives to increase the adoption of LED products among consumers, phasing out older and 
less efficient technologies to enhance the overall efficiency of lighting sector. According to Imarc analysis, other 
key  factors  driving  the  demand  of  LED  products  in  Europe  include  infrastructure  growth,  upcoming  smart 
building projects and a decline in the average prices of LEDs. Looking forward, the same analyst expects the 
market to exhibit moderate growth during 2020-2025. [IMA-20b] 

CSIL analysts estimated the total Lighting fixtures sold in the European market at around € 21 billion for the 
year 2019 (+1,6% compared to 2018). LED lamps registered a 14% growth (additionally € 1,9 billion) while 
legacy lamps registered a -17% (now around € 450 million). To be added also, to reach a grand total for the 
Lighting market (not considering only lighting fixtures), an estimate of European market for Lighting controls 
of about € 550 million (+4,8%). The slight increase of consumption of lighting fixtures comes from a +2% for 
professional luminaires and around -1% for consumer lighting. [CSI-20b] 

In  2019,  the  volume  of  lighting  fixtures  exports  reached  €  13,4  billion,  registering  an  increase  of  +0,6% 
compared to the previous year. Imports of lighting fixtures in Europe reached € 17,1 billion in 2019, with an 
increase of 2,6% compared to 2018. [CSI-20b] In 2019, the European trade balance recorded a deficit of € 3,7 

35 

 
 
billion, (€ 3,6 billion the previous year). As the internal EU market accounted for € 21 billion revenue, that the 
difference of € 4 billion is covered by European production. 

According  to  [CSI-20b],  among  the  companies  growing  in  the  European  market  during  2019  (not  ranked): 
Zumtobel, Ikea, Fagerhult, Yankon, Glamox, SLV, Flos, Xal. More European leaders include Signify (on all the 
market segments), Ledvance (mainly on lamps), Eglo (consumer lighting), Flos (design), Trilux (industrial lighting), 
Glamox (office), Fagerhult (retail), Molto Luce (hospitality), Schréder, AEC (street lighting), to mention some.  

Table 7: Situation some EU countries 

France 

in France, AFE compiled data from different national sources (ADEME, Recylum, OpusLight, 
Syndicat de l’éclairage) and published them in their web site [AFE-19]. The size of the French 
lighting  market  (excluding  smart  lighting)  represents  roughly  €2,3  billion  per  annum.  The 
fixtures/luminaire market represents a turnover ~€800 million. 

Residential lighting LED lamp sales rose sharply to exceed 127 million units in 2017, i.e. three 
quarters of the lamps sold during the year (169 million units in total). Between 2016 and 
2017, the number of LED lamps sold jumped by almost 46%, from 87 million to 127 million. 
The market share of LED lamps for building lighting of buildings will increase from 35% in 
2017 to 61% in 2020. The penetration rate of LEDs in France for street lighting is estimated 
at 15% in 2017. 

Lighting absorbs in France:  56 TWh of electricity per annum, i.e. 12% of French electricity 
consumption. Street lighting uses 5,6 TWh/yr and indoor lighting is responsible for additional 
37 TWh. The major contribution in this last figure are (a) 9,5 TWh for commercial spaces; (b) 
6,6 TWh for office spaces; (c) 4 TWh for health care establishments; (d) 4 TWh for education 
premises.  

The electricity consumption of a French household, excluding heating and hot  water, is on 
average 2700 kWh/yr. Households devote 12,8% of their specific electricity consumption to 
lighting, i.e. between 325 and 450 kWh/yr. 15 The average household lighting time is 2 464 
h/yr, or 6,7 hours per day. Each household has an average of 25 light points and buys 3 lamps 
per  year.  Around  7  million  households  buy  an  indoor  luminaire  each  year  with  a  median 
annual budget of 106 €. 28% of sales are made by DIY specialists and the place of the house 
which is equipped first and foremost is the living room with 26% of the purchased equipment 
intended for it. 

Smart Lighting in residential is growing: Household penetration will be 7,8% in 2020 and is 
expected  to  hit  18,7%  by  2025.  The  interior  market  revenue  in  the  Comfort  and  Lighting 
segment is projected to reach US$ 202 million in 2020 and it is expected to show an annual 
growth rate (CAGR 2020-2025) of 23,5%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$579 
million by 2025. The penetration for Smart bulbs in households will be at 5,6% in 2020. [STA-
19c] 

In  the  sector  of  tertiary-building  sector,  80%  of  lighting  installations  are  obsolete,  often 
dating back more than 20 years. For instance, 50 million LFLs should be replaced by end of 
2020. This obsolescent lighting systems are responsible for the 4 Mt of greenhouse gas per 
annum 16.  Further,  5,1  billion  euros  is  spent  unnecessarily  each  year  to  run  those  same 
obsolete facilities. It should be noticed that more than 70% of the lighting consumption of 
buildings is done during the daytime… 

Concerning  street/urban  lighting  it  exists  in  France  9,5  million  light  points  for  an  annual 
consumption of around 5,6 TWh. In 2019, 60% of the French urban lighting parc is made up 
of sodium lamps, 30% of mercury vapor lamps and 10% of LEDs. Operating for average 3 
200 hours per year (-24% since 1990). Urban lighting expenditure totalled nearly €2 billion 
per year, including: €1 billion devoted to maintenance, €400 to €500 million euros invested 
in the renewal of the park and more than €450 million attributable to energy consumption. 
This corresponds to average annual cost of €24-30 per inhabitant. For an average city council, 
public lighting, despite a 6% drop in consumption over the past seven years, represents 17% 
of their total energy consumption and 41% of their electricity bill. In 2020, 75% of installed 

15 For comparison, devices left on standby represent between 7 and 18% of electricity consumption 
16 3 % of the total emissions of tertiary sector buildings 

36 

 
 
                                                                 
Italy 

lighting  poles  are  more  than  15-year-old  and  43%  of  municipalities  with  more  than  500 
inhabitants plan to invest in improving their public lighting in the next two or three years. This 
corresponds to investments of €1 billion. Since 2017, more than 95% of renovations or new 
street lighting projects are using LEDs. 

To power Christmas festive lights, the electrical power required is  1,300  MW; 75% of this 
overconsumption is due to lighting in private homes. This represents the equivalent of the 
annual  consumption  of  600  000  recent  refrigerators.  For  this  reason,  the  city  councils 
adopted massively LEDs to reduce festive lighting consumption. That way, the City of Paris 
has considerably reduced the consumption and budget of its lighting, by switching to LEDs: 
the 800 000 light points on the famous Clamps Elysées avenue absorb no more than a family 
of 4 in one year, i.e. 10 990 kWh (consumption divided by 4 compared to 2013 and 50 times 
less than in 2006). 

Accounting for 11% the total European imports of decorative lighting, France is the number 
two importer. Although imports in this specific sector increased at an average rate of 6,7% 
between 2014 and 2018, reaching €1,6 billion in 2018. Some 48% of the imported lighting 
comes directly from developing countries. Between 2014 and 2018, imports from developing 
countries grew at an average rate of 9% per year. [CBI-20] 

Italy is one of the largest markets for lighting in Europe. Following BusinesScoot analysts, the 
Italian  lighting  sector  is  in  turn  divided  into  products  for  indoor  or  outdoor,  decorative  or 
technical. In Italy, lighting is a driving segment of the national economy and accounts for a 
considerable  part  of  exports  (estimated  to  more  than  €1,5  billion  per  year).  The  value  of 
production in fact shows positive signs in recent years but will have to reckon with a rapid 
change  in  the  needs  of  consumers  increasingly  attentive  to  the  environment  and  cost 
efficiency,  and  a  regulation  in  continuous  change.  The  offer  of  Italian  companies  must 
therefore be able to anticipate and manage these transformations and adapt both production 
and marketing towards a growing focus on smart lighting and LEDs. [BSC-19] 

Following  ASSIL,  the  National  Association  of  Lighting  Manufacturers  who  brings  together 
manufacturers  of  appliances,  electrical  components  for  lighting,  light  sources  and  LEDs, 
operating on the Italian market, its member companies represented in 2020 a global industry 
turnover of € 2,9 billion and employ over 8 000 persons [ASS-20]. ASSIL It includes around 80 
manufacturers of luminaires, electrical components for lighting, light sources and LED.  

Assuming that the revenue given by ASSIL represents over 65% of the total Italian lighting 
industry turnover in the sector, we can estimate the global national lighting revenue in 2020 
at € 4,46 billion. It should be noted that the global revenue of Italian Lighting industry was 
estimated at € 4,17 billion in 2014. [ITA-15] This corresponds to a CAGR in the period 2014-
20 of 1,13% and indicates a relative stability concerning industry turnover.  

Looking at the national interior market, Statista estimated the global revenue from OEM sales 
to US$ 2 576 million in 2020 and forecasts an increase of national demand to a CAGR of 4,9% 
for  the  period  2020-25.  Figure  32  shows  the  evolution  of  the  national  lamp  and  fixture 
revenue. 

37 

 
 
 
  
Figure 32: Evolution of Italian lamp and fixture revenue interior market revenue data from [STA-20h]  

The average per capita investment is estimated at US$ 42,60 with a decline with a YoY rate 
of -8,8% from 2019 to 2020. However, an increase is foreseen till 2025. [STA-20h]  

Italy saw steady growth in its imports of decorative lighting between 2014 and 2018, which 
averaged almost 7% per year. In 2018, the total import value of lighting was €888 million. 
Italy obtains over 60% of its imported lighting from developing countries. [CBI-20] 

Germany 

Following  Statista,  the  revenue  in  the  Lamps  and  Lighting  segment  in  Germany  reached 
US$7,815 billion in 2020 and the market is expected to grow annually by 2,0% CAGR for the 
period 2020-25. [STA-20e]. Global Market Insides reports that in 2017 the German market 
size was US$ 2,37 billion and forecasted to reach US$ 8,5 billion by 2024. [GMI-19b] Figure 
33 shows the revenue evolution split among end-use sectors. 

Figure 33: German Market size evolution by end-use sector; original data from [GMI-19b] 

The average revenue per person in the segment for Lamps and Lighting amounts to US$93.27 
in 2020. [STA-20e] 

Germany, for its part, is seeing its public lighting stock being renovated at a rate twice as fast 
as France, supported by an electricity price double the French price. By 2020, the latest studies 
show that LEDs will represent 80% of the German market. [AFE-19] 

In 2019, Germany had 9% of all smart home users in Europe. [STA-20b] It should be noticed 
also  that  in  Germany  the  Elder  Care  lighting  sector  generates  an  annual  revenue  of 
approximately US$ 24 million. [GMI-19b] 

More  especially  for  decorative  lighting,  Germany  is  Europe’s  largest  market  for  lighting. 
representing 20% of European imports. German imports of lighting reached almost €3 billion 
in 2018. Between 2014 and 2018, German imports of lighting grew moderately at an average 
rate of 3% per year. It is noteworthy that the German lighting market is well integrated with 
developing country supply chains, as over 60% of its imports of lighting come from developing 
countries. At the  same time,  Germany is one of the leading producers and suppliers to the 

38 

 
 
 
 
European Union. That means that German production does compete with developing country 
suppliers. [CBI-20] 

Greece 

The  electricity  consumed  by  lighting  is  21%  of  the  national  annual  consumption  [GRI-20]. 
Lighting represents 14% of final electricity consumption in households while increases to 43% 
in public sector office buildings. 

Smart home and smart lighting markets are lagging back in Greece: Household penetration 
will be 1,8% in 2020 and is expected to hit 7,1% by 2025. The penetration for Smart bulbs is 
at  1,2%  level  in  2020.  This  can  be  explained  partially  by  the  recent  financial  crisis  that 
experienced the country. The interior market revenue in the Comfort and Lighting segment is 
projected to reach US$ 4 million in 2020, it is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 
2020-2025) of 30,9%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$15m by 2025. [STA-19c] 

Netherlands  Netherlands is a small country with long tradition in lighting. Smart lighting and smart homes 
are for sure very trendy here: Smart Housing penetration will be 16,4%-level in 2020 and is 
expected to hit 34,6% by 2025. Further, Smart bulbs will be at 12,8% in 2020. The national 
revenue in the Comfort and Lighting segment is projected to reach US$ 119 million in 2020. 
It  is  expected  to  show  an  annual  growth  rate  (CAGR  2020-2025)  of  25,2%,  resulting  in  a 
projected market volume of US$366m by 2025. [STA-19c] 

In 2018, following CSIL analysts, the Dutch fixture market has exhibited an 8,4% expansion 
and it is among the top importing countries. [CSI-19d] 

Private consumption expenditure growth for decorative lighting in the Netherlands is forecast 
to  drop  from  2,5%  in  2018  to  1,1%  in  2019.  The  Brexit  as  well  as  the  international  trade 
disputes  between  the  United  States  and  China,  have  a  big  impact  on  the  Netherlands.  The 
country relies heavily on international trade and negative developments in that respect area 
have an amplified effect on the economic performance of the country. This will likely have an 
effect  on  economic  growth,  consumer  confidence  and  resulting  consumption  of  decorative 
lighting in the country. [CBI-20] 

Spain 

As  reported  by  ANFALUM,  Spanish  market  is  on  rapid  transformation  path  towards  LED 
technology. Figure 34 shows that path.  

Figure 34: Market shares of LED technology in Spanish lighting market. Data from [ANF-16] 

The  turnover  of  Spanish  lighting  industry  has  been  evaluated  in  2016  to  be  €1,26  billion. 
Technical interior lights with €577 million lead, followed by street lights with €262 million. 
Further, looking at exports of lighting products from Spanish industry, LED technology share 
were established at 35%. [ANF-16] 

Between 2014 and 2018, Spain saw an average growth rate of 7% in the sector of decorative 
lighting, reaching a total import value of €819 million in 2018. The country is responsible for 
almost 6% of the total European imports of lighting. Spain sources over 65% of its lighting 
from developing countries and imported €457 million worth of lighting in 2018. On average, 
imports from developing countries grew by almost 12% between 2014 and 2018. Spain is 
therefore an interesting country to target. [CBI-20] 

Portugal 

Following BusinesScoot analysts, in recent years, companies in the lighting sector in Portugal 
have  invested  heavily  in  the  internationalisation  of  their  products.  As  a  result,  since  2009, 
exports  from  the  Portuguese  market  have  more  than  doubled,  according  to  data  from  the 

39 

 
 
 
Agência para o Investimento e Comércio Externo de Portuga (AICEP). Currently, approximately 
70% of the total turnover of the Portuguese lighting industry comes from exports. [BSC-20] 
The Portuguese market stands out internationally for its differentiated production of unique 
pieces  made  to  measure  for  each  customer,  as  well  as  for  its  limited  and  innovative 
productions. This emphasis on personalised follow-up with a higher market value benefits the 
many players involved. However, the country suffers from the lack of economies of scale of 
enterprises (most of which are micro and small enterprises) that sometimes fail to meet a 
large demand. [BSC-20] 

Denmark 

European leader in terms of LEDs, Denmark has already converted between 25 and 30% of 
its lighting parc (1 million luminaires) to LEDs. [AFE-19] 

Sweden 

Finland  

UK 

In 2019, Denmark with 23% of all smart home users in Europe occupies the 1st place of the 
top-10 EU countries (smart household penetration will be 18,4% in 2020 and is expected to 
hit 35,8% by 2025). [STA-20b] [STA-19c] The national revenue in the Comfort and Lighting 
segment is projected to reach US$ 59 million in 2020. The revenue is expected to show an 
annual growth rate (CAGR 2020-2025) of 18,3%, resulting in a projected market volume of 
US$ 137 million by 2025. The penetration for Smart bulbs will be at 13,1% level in 2020. 
Further, the average expenditure per installed Smart Home for Comfort and Lighting currently 
is US$ 118.31, one of the highest in EU. [STA-19c] 

Following Statista, the revenue in the Lamps and Lighting segment in Sweden is estimated to 
be US$375 million in 2020. The market is expected to grow annually by 1,7% CAGR for the 
period  2020-25.  The  average  revenue  per  person  in  the  segment  for  Lamps  and  Lighting 
amounts to US$214,55 in 2020. [STA-20f] 

Following Statista, the revenue in the Lamps and Lighting segment in Finland is estimated to 
be US$2,167 million in 2020. The market is expected to grow annually by 1,7% CAGR for the 
period  2020-25.  The  average  revenue  per  person  in  the  segment  for  Lamps  &  Lighting 
amounts to US$67,75 in 2020. [STA-20g] 

Following the last statistics of the UK Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, 
lighting consumed in 2018, 22,5 TWh corresponding to ~9% of the electricity consumption of 
the  kingdom  [BEI-19].  Domestic  sector  uses  ~48%  of  the  above  quantity  when  tertiary 
building’s and street lighting and consumed 41% and 11% respectively. The exceptionally high 
domestic lighting consumption can be partially understood by the fact that still in 2018 the 
dominant  technology  is  Halogen  lamps  (Figure  35a).  For  sure  there  is  a  huge  potential  for 
energy savings in that sector. Further, UK is today in the midst of a LED transition. Figure 35)b  
illustrates the evolution of electricity use for lighting by households as well as the part of that 
energy used by LED systems: it can be seen that since 2013 the electricity consumption of the 
sector decreases constantly and the shares of LED technology increases sharply. Further, using 
effective lighting controls & energy efficient lighting could drop by 4 to 6%. In 2019, UK had 
16% of all smart home users in Europe. [STA-20b].  

Figure 35: (a) Shares of different technologies used for domestic lighting in 2018. (b) Evolution of the 
electricity use for lighting in the Domestic sector (orange) and share of LEDs in that consumption 
(blue). Data from [BEI-19] 

(a) 

(b) 

40 

 
 
            
         
 
 
With 80% of new street lighting installations using LED the ongoing market transformation 
seems to be solidly engaged. [AFE-19] In fact, Within the UK, the Green Investment Bank has 
created the Green Loan for Local Authorities, a value for money financing product which can 
finance all LEDs and CMS capital expenditure including the poles. [GRF-19] 

A downward trend in imports of decorative lighting in the United Kingdom was seen starting 
from 2015 (€1,6 billion), with the import value falling to €1,4 billion in 2018. Of the top six 
leading importers in Europe, UK ranks highest in terms of imports from developing countries, 
accounting for with 78% of these imports. However, decorative lighting segment saw a decline 
over  the  2015  to  2018  period.  The  main  reason  for  the  decrease  is  the  economic  fallout, 
depreciation of the British Pound and loss of consumer confidence due to the Brexit. This trend 
is not expected to be reversed anytime soon. [CBI-20] 

3.1.2.2 

United States (USA) and Canada 

United 
States 

United States has 874 million cumulative LED unit installations as of 2016, this translates to 
an installed penetration of 12,6%. [NAV-17] USA-DOE estimated the installed stock penetration 
in 2017 to be 19%, and in 2035 the penetration was forecasted to reach 84% [DOE-19]. Figure 
36 shows the current path for the installed stock penetration of LED technology in major USA 
lighting market segments as projected by DOE. It can be seen that outdoor lighting is the shows 
the  highest  penetration  due  to  the  application  of  public  procurement  politics,  whereas  the 
residential sector, subject of purchase price and eventual incentives, is lagging back. 

Figure 36: Shows LED-technology penetration in various USA market segments as the projected by DOE 
(data from DOE-20]) 

Based on those forecasts DOE estimated that, if DOE SSL program goals for LED efficiency and 
controls/connected lighting are achieved, a total cumulative, from 2017 to 2035, energy savings 
of 78 quads is possible. This is equivalent to approximately, US$ 890 billion in avoided energy 
costs over that period [DOE-19]. However, one year later, based on market evidences DOE had 
to correct the current path for LED penetration in all the above segments. As can be seen in 
Figure 37a the relative estimation error based on the past year’s data can reach 45% in the 
case  of  commercial  buildings,  when  Figure  37b  shows  that  energy  savings  were  initially 
overestimated by 25%! This is a clear illustration that forecasts are volatile and that in rather 
short term; the only reliable way to proceed is using real marked data and limit forecast periods 
to less than 10-year periods. However, other way round, if DOE proposed measures are adopted 
then 25% additional energy savings could be achieved. 

41 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 37: (a) Relative errors between 2019 and 2020 forecasts and their propagation till 2035. (b) 
Estimation error in the expected cumulative energy savings by 2035 using different market penetration 
forecast models (data from [DOE-20]) 

(a) 

(b) 

It should however, noticed that in 2016 only 18% of the lamps and 16% of the luminaires (all 
technologies inclusive) where compliant with Energy Star standards for energy savings. [NAD-
17] 

Grand  Vision  Research  [GVR-19]  reported  that  US  LED  lamp  and  luminaire  market  size  was 
US$ 4,0 billion and as can be seen in Figure 38  the analysts applied a linear progression model 
to estimate that the market size will attain in 2025 US$ 4,5 billion for LED lamps and US$ 4,5 
billion for LED luminaires respectively. 

Figure 38: Estimation of LED lamp and Luminaire market size in USA [GVR-19] 

Canada 

In Canada, Statista reports that the revenue in the Comfort and Lighting segment for residential 
sector is projected to reach US$ 197 million in 2020. This is lagging seriously back compared to 
US market. In fact, the number of smart households is expected to amount to 5,9 million by 
2025.  However,  Smart  bulbs  penetration  is  rather  high:  13,3%  in  2020  and  the  average 
expenditure for Comfort and Lighting segment is evaluated to US$ 72,31 per household. [STA-
19c] 

3.1.2.3 

Latin America region 

Furthermore, Latin America is expected to grow moderately owing to the slow adoption of technologies in the 
region. Moreover, there are less light manufacturing companies present in Latin America, which is also affecting 
the market growth in the region. [FBI-20] 

Following P&S Marker research, the Latin American market for LED lighting is expected to witness the fastest 
growth between 2017-2023. The LED lighting market in Latin America is projected to grow at a CAGR of 14,5% 
during the forecast period. [PSM-18] 

42 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The lighting fixtures market in Latin America has been evaluated by [CSI-18c] in US$ 4,3 billion in 2017, to 
reach over US$ 5,0 billion in 2022. LED share represents around 35% of overall consumption today, to double 
in around five years. Among the most promising segments for international players: all the Contract market 
(around US$ 700 million in the five countries as a whole), as well as solutions for hospitality, retail and office 
spaces (around US$ 1,2 billion as a total). 

The top 50 players in Latin America account for 40% of the entire market. Among them: Acuity, Blumenau, 
Celsa, Construlita, Elec, Intral, Inesa Feilo, Kingsun, Ledvance, Lumicenter, Philips, Schreder, Taschibra, Tospo, 
Yankon. [CSI-18c] 

Brazil 

Argentina 

Table 8: Some examples from various country’s markets in Latin America Area 

Among  all  the  countries  in  the  Latin  American  region,  Brazil  is  estimated  to  contribute  the 
largest revenue to the Latin American market for LED lighting between 2017-2023. The growth 
of market in the country can be attributed to the declining manufacturing cost of LEDs and 
increasing demand for energy efficient and sustainable lighting. [PSM-18] Brazil has phased 
out incandescent bulbs through government regulations and the growth in residential and retail 
are expected to cause massive increases in LED lighting adoption. [NAV-17] 

Smart housing is growing in Brazil: smart technologies for houses penetration is ~2,6% in 2020 
and is expected to hit 8,7% by 2025. The national market revenue in the Comfort and Lighting 
segment is projected to reach US$ 78 million in 2020 (Smart bulb penetration ~1,9%) and it is 
expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2020-2025) of 30.1%, resulting in a projected 
market volume of US$292m by 2025. The average expenditure per installed Smart Home for 
Comfort and Lighting currently is estimated to US$ 43,57 per household, which is high in regard 
to country’s GDP. 

Following BusinesScoot analysts, the Brazilian market has more than 600 companies in activity, 
representing a significant part of the economy, as it generates more than 37 000 jobs. In this 
segment, revenues are distributed in 61% for luminaries, 28% for lamps. The vast majority of 
industries are concentrated in Greater São Paulo, representing 58% of the total. 25% are in Rio 
Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Rio de Janeiro, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Bahia and Pernambuco. 
The remaining 17% are in the interior of the State of São Paulo. A growth of 10% per year is 
expected only for the LED lighting market, until 2022. [BSC-20b] 

In  Argentina  the  smart  home  technology  penetration  is  established  at  2,4%  in  2020  and  is 
expected  to  hit  6,9%  by  2025.  The  national  market  revenue  in  the  Comfort  and  Lighting 
segment in residential sector is estimated to US$ 14 million in 2020 and it is expected to show 
an annual growth rate (CAGR 2020-2025) of 27,2%, resulting in a projected market volume of 
US$ 47 million by 2025. Smart bulb’s penetration is estimated be at 1,7%-level in 2020, while 
the  average  expenditure  per  installed  Smart  Home  currently  is  expected  to  amount  to 
US$ 40,95. [STA-19c] These values are much lower that Brazil who is the leading market in 
South America, this lag can be partially explained by the current financial crisis that faces the 
country.  

3.1.2.4  Middle East and Africa regions (MEA) 

When it comes to lighting, Middle East users have been concerned about telling the hype from the reality, and 
when it comes to modern lighting technology, they still demand value for money. 

Frost & Sullivan relates Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) lighting market forecasts. They envisioned that market 
will witness a CAGR of 16,8% between 2015 and 2020 to reach revenues of US$ 1,98 billion. [FRS-17] 

Various countries in the Middle East region are dedicated towards deploying energy efficient lighting solutions 
across residential, commercial, industrial and other sectors, to reduce carbon footprints and emissions as well 
as to provide a sustainable environment across the region. The demand of EEL light systems is anticipated to 
grow from 2017 to 2020. Demand for fluorescent lamps and HID lamps is anticipated to decline in the Middle 
East in coming years [TSR-18]. Table 9 indicates the evolution of market shares (in sales) for different light 
sources technologies, it can be seen that LEDs are the leading market technology since 2017. 

43 

 
 
 
 
 
Table 9: Shares of various light sources technologies evolution in Middle East region (data from [TSR-18]) 

Type of light source 
CFLs and LFLs 
HID 
LED 
Others 

2017 
19,09% 
4,19% 
73,26% 
3,46% 

2020 
18,16% 
2,79% 
75,44% 
3,61% 

As Frost & Sullivan reports [FRS-17], GCC is committed to reducing its carbon footprint and electricity demand 
through 2025, with clearly established targets in place. One of the easiest demand-side measures that can 
achieve  this  goal  is  to  overhaul  the  lighting  within  buildings  and  at  a  city  level,  presenting  robust  market 
potential for LED in the region. GCC would also facilitate the evolution of OLEDs in the region that are considered 
the future solution for sustainable and energy-efficient lighting. [FRS-17] 

To achieve EEL targets, GCC governments push to phase out inefficient lighting, such as incandescent bulbs or 
high-intensity discharge street lamps. Further, many ME governments are adopting since 2015 energy efficient 
lighting policies, directives, standards, regulations. The Middle East Lighting Association (MELA), is working with 
national governments on a more uniform Lighting System Legislation (LSL) approach that focuses on lighting 
systems put into service. [TSR-18]  

The lighting fixtures market in the Middle East and North Africa regions (MENA) is estimated by CSIL to be worth 
US$ 3,3 billion in 2018, to reach 3,4-3,5 billion in 2020. After a stable 2019, a new growth is expected in most 
of the countries in the coming year. The Region is a net importer of lighting fixtures (around US$ 2,5 billion, 
equal to 77% of the total consumption). In 2017 and 2018, exports have decreased and currently amount to 
US$ 344 million. Since 2011 consumption of lighting fixtures registered a robust increase. However, due to the 
oil price implications, the market showed a negative performance in 2015 and 2016. Starting from 2017, the 
annual variation has returned positive. Most of the growth during 2018 comes from Saudi Arabia and Egypt. 
Lighting market in 2019 is growing especially in North Africa. Sales in the Gulf countries in 2020 are estimated 
growing by 3,4% on average. [CSI-20] Figure 39 shows fixtures revenue growth correlated to the actual sector’s 
revenue by country. 

Figure 39: Situation of lighting fixtures market in 2018-19. Green points correspond to progression, red t regression and 
blue to stable YoY rate. Data from [CSI-20] 

Top 50 brands hold around 50% of the market. LED consumption has grown steeply over the last years. While 
in 2013 LED lighting incidence on the total was just 16%, in 2018 it was over 50 %. This trend is expected to 
continue in the next years: LED-based consumption will account for 70% of the total by the end of 2022. [CSI-
20] Further, Middle East region fixture manufacturers will benefit from the increased business that will come 
their way from global LED light source manufacturers and can leverage their strengths to reach local customers 
and businesses.  

44 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 10: Situation some MEA region countries 

United 
Arab 
Emirates 

In U.A.E. the sales ban on inefficient incandescent lamps came into effect on 1 July 2014 move 
expected to save the country US$ 182 million a year on  energy bills and the equivalent of 
165000 cars in carbon emissions. [HAS-14] 

Saudi 
Arabia 

Turkey 

Iran 

Dubai’s outdoor lighting programme for demand side management (DSM) aims to retrofit 75% 
cent of lighting systems with LED fixtures across the country’s roads, streets, and parks, with 
an aim to achieve savings of up to 300 gigawatt hours (GWh) in energy consumption by 2030. 
[FRS-17]  Further,  Dubai  has  reached  an  agreement  with  Philips  to  provide  what  has  been 
dubbed the “Dubai Lamp” for all newly constructed buildings ~2 million units in 2017. [NAV-
17]. 

Saudi Arabia ambitions to increase rapidly both, smart home and smart lighting (smart bulb’s 
share  at  home  is  estimated  to  ~3,0%  in  2020)  segments:  Smart  Household  technology 
penetration will be 4,4% in 2020 and is expected to hit 10,4% by 2025. That way, the national 
market  revenue  in  the  Comfort  and  Lighting  segment  in  households  is  projected  to  reach 
US$ 32million in 2020. And it is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2020-2025) 
of  19.5%,  resulting  in  a  projected  market  volume  of  US$77m  by  2025.  The  average 
expenditure  per  installed  Smart  Home  for  Comfort  and  Lighting  is  currently  estimated  to 
US$ 125,39 per household. This the highest worldwide. [STA-19c] 

Following CSIL analysts, and Saudi Arabia with a fixture import growth of 16,3% occupied the 
2nd rank I the top-10 importing countries [CSI-19d] 

In Turkey, the number of enterprises related to lighting equipment OEMs grown from 1 849 in 
2010 to ~4 375 in 2018; 61,5% of the firms in manufacturing industry of electrical Lighting 
equipment have gathered in Istanbul. Share of Ankara is 10,6%, while Izmir ranks as the third 
with  its  share  of  6,7%.  Istanbul  has  production  activity  in  each  field  of  general  Lighting. 
However, decorative lighting is common in Ankara and Izmir mostly. Automotive and industrial 
Lighting are common in Bursa and Kocaeli mainly. And mostly interior and exterior Lighting 
have  been  carried  out  in  other  cities.  Production  value  in  the  manufacturing  industry  of 
electrical Lighting equipment was  1,46 billion TL in 2010; but it is estimated to  reach 6,45 
billion TKL in 2018. The total number of employees increased from 13 474 up to 25 500 in 
the 2010-18 period. [ICC-19] 

Turkish  Domestic  market  size  of  Lighting  equipment  was  US$  2,45  billion  in  2013;  and  it 
reached to US$ 2,59 billion. While the domestic market grew in real terms during 2015 and 
2016, it contracted in dollar terms. The domestic market experienced a fast growth in 2017 in 
real terms and  despite the depreciation of the Turkish lira, it expanded to US$  2,31  billion. 
Domestic market contracted in 2018 in real terms and it shrank to US$ 1,94 billion dollars 
[ICC-19] 

Smart housing and smart lighting are lagging back compared to other countries. Penetration 
of smart technologies  for  houses is  ~3,7% in 2020 and is expected to hit  11,7% by  2025. 
Smart bulbs penetration is established at 2,6%-level in 2020. The national market revenue in 
the Comfort and Lighting segment is projected to reach US$36m in 2020 and it is expected to 
show  an  annual  growth  rate  (CAGR  2020-2025)  of  26,0%,  resulting  in  a  projected  market 
volume of US$ 116m by 2025. [STA-19c] 

More surprising, LEDInside, based on information from Trend News Agency (Azerbaijan), related 
in 2018 that Iran plans to build a LED lamps plant with the cooperation of Chinese investors 
in Ardabil Province. The new plant will provide employment opportunities for local people and 
it  is  expected  to  produce  nearly  12,500  LED  lamps  per  day  once  it  starts  to  run.  The 
construction of the LED lamp plant aimed to reduce LED lamps imported to Iran. This project 
is on hold due to embargo conditions imposed to Iran. In FY2017, more than 2,000 tons of LED 
lamps worth US$19 million were imported by Iran from China, Germany, the UAE, Turkey and 
South Korea [LDI-18]. 

Kenya 

Following Lighting Global Market Research Report [LGO-15], there has been massive growth in 
off-grid lighting sector. From 2012 to 2014, the number of off-grid lighting products sold in 
the  three  towns  almost  doubled  (77%  increase  from  2012  to  2014),  and  the  estimated 
monthly revenue from off-grid lighting products more than quadrupled (from US$ 32 000 in 

45 

 
 
2012  to  over  US$  180  000  in  2014).  All  three  towns  saw  growth  in  product  revenue,  and 
Kericho accounted for the vast majority of product sales and revenue growth from 2012 to 
2014. This perhaps indicates a key shift in consumer (and re-seller) purchasing preferences 
toward urban and peri-urban centres where there are established markets for other high-value 
electronic goods. Solar lighting products were the main drivers of growth in the off-grid lighting 
sector over the study period. In 2009 less than 2% of available products were solar in a retail 
market dominated by very inexpensive (and low quality) torches, and sales were sparse. By 
2012, solar products represented ~1% of all products sold with  31% of the revenue in the 
market. In the most recent survey, solar products captured 24% of product sales and 85% of 
product revenue. 

It remarkable to see that Kenya is doing important efforts to implement smart housing and 
smart lighting technologies. Smart Households penetration in 2020 is just 0,9% but is expected 
to hit 2,6% by 2025. The national market  revenue in the Comfort and Lighting segment in 
houses is projected to reach US$ 3 million in 2020 but it is expected to show an annual growth 
rate (CAGR 2020-2025) of 33,4%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$12m by 2025. 
In parallel, smart bulb’s share is established at 0,4% level. In fact, the average expenditure per 
installed smart home for comfort and lighting segment currently is estimated to US$ 25,20 
per household. This a very high investment in regard to the country’s GDP. [STA-19b] 

In South Africa the smart home technology penetration is yet established at 3,4% in 2020 and 
is expected to hit 9,0% by 2025. The national market revenue in the Comfort and Lighting 
segment in residential sector is estimated to US$ 51 million in 2020 and it is expected to show 
an annual growth rate (CAGR 2020-2025) of 25,7%, resulting in a projected market volume of 
US$  158  million  by  2025.  Smart  bulb’s  penetration  is  estimated  be  at  2,3%-level  in  2020, 
while the average expenditure per installed Smart Home currently is expected to amount to 
US$ 86,48. [STA-19c] 

South 
Africa 

3.1.2.5 

Asia pacific region and Indian subcontinent (APAC) 

Following [MAM-17] and [PSI-20] Asia-Pacific region held the largest share of the LED lighting market since 
2015. It reached US$ 55,84 billion in 2019 and expected to dominate in the coming years. [FBI-20] Grand View 
Research estimated the APAC market share as high as 41,3% in 2018 [GVR-19], when [TMR-17] reports 40% 
in 2016. This is mainly attributed to the growing demand for LED lighting from the residential sector, especially 
in China, India, and South Korea. The people in this region have the required financial means to invest in smart 
homes  which  are  fitted  with  several  innovative  LED  lights.  The  high  growth  of  the  market  in  APAC  can  be 
attributed to the ongoing infrastructure modernization projects in the developing economies such as China and 
India, where the governments have approved the construction of several smart cities. Further to the increasing 
government initiatives to support the usage of EEL sources and the surging focus on the electrification in rural 
areas. Further, the growth in construction and infrastructural development in the region is due to the booming 
population,  which,  in  turn,  is  fuelling  the  demand  for  LED  lighting  solutions.  Further,  the  growing  consumer 
awareness for energy-efficient lighting, due to the rise in power tariff and environmental concerns, is another 
factor driving the demand in the APAC region. 

The retrofit category, based on installation type, is projected to experience faster growth in the LED lighting 
market during the decade 2020-30. The growth is attributed to the increasing replacement of sodium-vapor 
and incandescent lamps with LED lights, in countries such as India, Japan, China, the U.A.E., and South Korea. 
The strong demand for retrofit LED lamps in these countries, due to the phasing out of incandescent bulbs, is 
expected to further boost the LED lighting market in the same period. [PSI-20] 

Government initiatives for the deployment of smart lighting products, along with toughening regulations for 
energy efficiency, are  being implemented, especially in countries such as China,  India  and South Korea.  The 
increasing adoption of smart lighting products, coupled with the strong government focus on developing smart 
cities, is further propelling the LED lighting market growth. 

46 

 
 
 
Table 11: Some examples from country markets in APAC area 

Japan 

Japan, one of the pioneers of LEDs who started promoting SSLs since 1998, 17 is among of world 
's largest LED lighting market. In 2014, Japan, had a global LED market share of 25,6%. [ENE-
14]  

An iMarc study shown that Japan LED market reached a value of US$ 5,8 billion in 2019. [IMA-
20] 

Figure 40: Shipment value of the LED lighting fixture market in Japan from 2010 to 2018. Data from 
[STA-20c] 

In 2019 LED penetration has already reached 60% [AFE-19] The value of the LED lamp market 
in Japan grown from JP¥ 26 billion in 2010 u to approximately JP¥ 81 billion in 2018, [STA-
19b].  At  the  same  year,  the  LED  lighting  equipment  market  size  was  forecasted  to  reach 
approximately  JP¥  770  billion,  up  from  about  53  billion  yen  in  2010.  [STA-20c]Figure  40 
illustrates the LED fixture market growth in the country in the last decade. 

According [CSI-19], the lighting fixtures market in Japan grew by 1% (-0,5% in JP¥) in 2018 to 
a market value of JP¥ 710 billion. In the middle run (2013-2018), the market registered a CAGR 
of 2,7% (in JP¥). The LED-base lighting fixtures segment has almost reached 97% of the market. 
The LED-base lighting fixtures segment has almost reached 97% of the market.  

The demand is going to soften in the coming years, especially in the consumer segment, as new 
constructions is expected to decline due to a reduction in the population and a contraction in the 
number  of  new  housing  started.  In  2018,  in  Japan  less  than  10%  of  the  local  fixture 
consumption  was  satisfied  by  imports  (US$  704  million);  China  remains  the  top  importing 
country (71% of the total import value). Exports only amounted to US$ 89 million (less than 2% 
of the production). [CSI-19] 

As LED fixtures is almost saturated market, the industry has identified Connected Smart Lighting 
(CSL) and Human Centric Lighting (HCL) as the next propelling force that will guide the market 
in the next future. [CSI-19] Japan, is among the top-5 countries in the domain smart lighting for 
residential sector. The national revenue in the Comfort and Lighting segment Revenue in the 
Comfort and Lighting segment is projected to reach US$ 389 million in 2020. It is expected to 
show  an  annual  growth  rate  (CAGR  2020-2025)  of  23,0%,  resulting  in  a  projected  market 
volume of US$ 1,1 billion by 2025. [STA-19c] 

China 

The LED lighting market is projected to show a CAGR of 14,4% for the period from 2020 to 
2030  [PSI-20]  Navigant,  reported  following  information  from  CSA,  that  China  sold  8  billion 
lighting  units  in  2016,  half  of  which  were  sold  domestically.  [NAV-17]  Following  [RAM-19], 
China’s LED lighting market is going to cross the US$ 29 billion mark by the year-end of 2025. 

Interior market and demand for LED lighting are growing rapidly due to supportive government 
policies that help out LED manufacturer and distributor to a great extent Further, people are 

17 Japanese government created in 1998 the “21st Century Lighting Project” to promote LED lighting 

47 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                 
adopting LED lighting at a rapid pace because of the gradual reduction of LED lighting price. In 
[CSI-19b] analysts estimated that in 2018 the LED consumption still grew by 12,3%. On the 
other hand, traditional-source lighting fixtures sales dropped by 4,1% compared to 2017. 

China  is  a  major  producer  and  consumer  of  LED  lighting  products.  Many  Chinese  LED  light 
manufacturers increase their production capacity because they are getting an optimal subsidy 
from both central and local government. [RAM-19] Concerning LED fixture manufacturing, [CSI-
19b] considered that during 2018, the overall Chinese production of lighting fixtures registered 
an annual increase of 7,7% (in US$), reaching a value of RMB 281,7 billion. This growth rate is 
even  higher  the  growth  rate  for  the  top  60  players  (+18%),  with  high  performances  for 
companies like MLS, NVC, Yankon, Opple, FSL, Inesa Feilo. A steady growth path means also an 
interesting  profitability  ratio:  an  average  EBITDA  by  around  15%  among  a  representative 
sample of companies. [CSI-19b] 

Fast growth has been registered for emergency lighting, urban landscape lighting, lighting for 
infrastructures. [CSI-19b] In 2018, the output value of outdoor lighting products reached RMB 
95 billion and that of landscape lighting exceeded RMB 93,6 billion. Decorative lights for public 
areas, such as streets and squares, are the leading products in this area. [HKT-19] 

The  National  Semiconductor  Lighting  Project  has  helped  to  create  seven  national 
semiconductor  lighting  industrial  bases  (Shanghai,  Dalian,  Nanchang,  Xiamen,  Shenzhen, 
Yangzhou  and  Shijiazhuang,  Guzhen).  [HKT-19]  Today,  Guzhen  (Guzhen  town  is  located  in 
Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province) is famous as “Lighting capital in China”. Guzhen is not 
only the biggest wholesale lighting market in China but also the biggest LED light production 
base  and  the  biggest  manufacturing  base  in  China.  China’s  LED  enterprises  are  actively 
expanding into overseas markets. For example, Mulinsenhas merged with Germany’s Ledvance, 
while Opple is  continually establishing subsidiary companies overseas.  Meanwhile, mainland 
lighting enterprises are also strengthening their presence in China by setting up display centres 
and  more  specialty  stores.  Mainland  enterprises  are  expected  to  devote  more  resources  in 
future into technological development and innovation so as to add more value to their products 
and boost their competitiveness. [HKT-19] 

Despite the trade friction between China and the USA, exports went up by 8,2% compared to 
2017 (in US$) and accounted for 57% of its value. Moreover, the United States confirmed as 
the main destination market for Chinese export, with a stable share of 28%. Imports account 
for only 2% of the domestic consumption as in 2018 they were worth about RMB 2,5 billion. 
Imports of lighting fixtures mainly come from Germany and Japan (both growing in term of 
market share in the middle run between 20183 and 2018), the USA (declining), Taiwan and 
Italy (both increasing). [CSI-19b] 

National standards on LEDs are being formulated and improved following the industry’s rapid 
growth.    Foreign  companies  looking  to  enter  the  Chinese  market  should  be  aware  of  the 
mainland’s relevant standards. Under the Standardisation Law of the People’s Republic of China 
(Revised Draft 2017), there are five sets of standards - national standards, industry standards, 
local standards, organisation standards and enterprise standards. [HKT-19] 

China’s  interior  market  is  ranked  in  2020  top-2  in  the  residential  smart  lighting  worldwide. 
Revenue in the Comfort and Lighting segment in households is projected to reach US$ 1,87 
billion  in  2020.  Revenue  is  expected  to  show  an  annual  growth  rate  (CAGR  2020-2025)  of 
23,6%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$ 5,39 billion by 2025. [STA-19c] 

Following Jurgen Yeh, Korea’s LED industry took off at a much later date than Japan or Taiwan, 
in fact it developed at around the same time as China, but has advanced at an accelerated 
rate. However, the country’s LED industry plummeted much sharply compared to Japan, China 
and  Taiwan.  The  Korean  LED  industry  development  occurred  in  three  phases  the  first  was 
started by upstream LED manufacturers coined the “double E era” (EE), followed by Samsung 
and  LG’s  entry  during  the  peak  of  the  Solid-State  Lighting  phase,  followed  by  large  scale 
withdraw from the market, in response to emerging Chinese LED industry. Nowadays, in Korea, 
LEDs  are  barely  getting  any  attention.  Instead,  OLEDs  and  quantum  dots  have  come  under 
Korea’s  industry  spotlight.  Korea’s  advantages  are  its  large  electronic  export  market,  and  a 
comprehensive electronic product supply chain. However, few of its products are innovative or 
original. Moreover, Korea lacks natural resources making it difficult to support a supply chain 

48 

South 
Korea 

 
 
model  that  aims  to  incorporate  everything.  Hence,  manufacturers  could  end  up  accidentally 
making deadly products.  Since most Korean manufacturers are large enterprises, and if the 
group subsidiaries follow Asian culture’s hierarchical order, mismanagement within the group 
can be a huge issue. [YEH-16] 

In  Korea,  smart  lighting  is  serious  trend.  The  national  revenue  in  the  Comfort  and  Lighting 
segment is projected to reach US$ 270 million in 2020. Revenue is expected to show an annual 
growth  rate  (CAGR  2020-2025)  of  18,8%,  resulting  in  a  projected  market  volume  of 
US$ 637million by 2025. [STA-19c] 

ASEAN 
countries 

ASEAN area countries used globally in 2015 ~98 TWh of electricity for lighting. Figure 41 shows 
how this amount of energy is distributed among the ASEAN area countries. [IIE-16] 

Figure 41: Share of annual electricity use for lighting of each ASEAN country member in the global area 
consumption. Data from [IIE-16] 

In  this  geographic  area  residential  sector  absorbs  40%  of  the  energy,  tertiary  buildings  and 
street  lighting  are  responsible  for  50%  and  10%  respectively.  However,  there  are  important 
variations among the different countries. [IIE-16] In 2015, the LED penetration in the area was 
11%. 

 Following [CSI-18], the lighting fixtures market in ASEAN area is estimated worth US$ 3,6 billion 
at factory prices, for the year 2017. In 2018, market value will be in excess of US$ 3,8 billion, 
and in 2019 in excess of US$ 4,2 billion. Over one billion US$ is made by LED based lighting 
fixtures,  while  approximately  USD  2,5  billion  worth  is  the  market  for  Conventional  powered 
lighting fixtures. 

Beyond  fixtures,  lamps  (Conventional  and  LED  lamps),  LED  modules,  lighting  equipment 
(drivers), lighting controls, for an estimated additional US$ 860 million (approximately US$ 620 
million lamps, US$ 240 million between modules, drivers, automotive lamps, controls). [CSI-18] 

Commercial lighting market in Asia Pacific (6 Countries) is estimated worth around US$ 1,17 
billion in 2017. Expected growth rate is around 5% yearly for 2018 and 2019. Outdoor lighting 
market is estimated worth around US$ 790 million. 

Approximately one fourth of the Asia Pacific market for lighting fixtures is handled on a Project 
basis. Almost 50% of the market is handled by wholesalers. Top 50 players hold around 35% 
of  the  lighting  fixtures  market  in  Asia  Pacific  and  around  50%  of  the  total  lighting  market 
(fixtures, lamps, equipment). Vietnam and Indonesia are today the major markets in the Region. 
Malaysia,  Vietnam  and  Singapore  are  the  main  exporters.  Figure  42  illustrated  the  market 
situation in 2018. 

49 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 42: Fixture’s market situation in main ASEAN countries (2018). (a) Production and interior market 
consumption shares; (b) International trade (Import & export). Data from [CSI-18] 

India 

(a) 

(b) 

The countries with the highest import growth rates over the last year include Vietnam (+18%) 
[CSI-19d] 

India’s UJALA programme especially has helped deploy more than 360 million units since 2015, 
out of an intended 770 million. [IEA-19] India has demonstrated that it is possible to deploy 
million LED lamps rapidly on a large scale when the right financing and market mechanisms are 
in  place:  it  has  one  of  the  largest  LED  markets  in  the  world  thanks  to  its  national  UJALA 
programme, which uses bulk procurement to offer bulbs that are 50% more efficient than other 
lamps typically available. Using bulk procurement and energy service providers, can help reduce 
LED costs even further while increasing uptake. 

In India, one city leases its street lighting poles to a company that equips them with digital LED 
signs and smart cells, collecting advertising and subscriber revenue [DEL-15] 

India set up the Energy Efficiency Services Limited  which has installed over 237  million LED 
replacements in 2016 [NAV-17] 

Earlier, in 2015, the government of India announced to develop 100 smart cities in the country 
over  the  next  five  years.  Hence,  with  increasing  construction  of  smart  cities  and  increasing 
number of construction projects, globally, the demand for lighting is expected to increase in the 
forecast period. [PSI-18b] 

Nepal 

As  per  the  data  provided  by  Nepalese  Central  Bureau  of  Statistics  (CBS),  in  2011,  67,26  % 
(94.11 % in urban 18 and 60,84 % in rural) of household uses electricity as the source of lighting. 
[BIS-19] 

18 Only 3,1 % of the Nepalese urban population is unreached to the electricity supply. 

50 

 
 
  
 
 
                                                                 
A study showed that about 60% energy used in Kathmandu can be saved by using LED lamps 
[TIM-13]. It should be noticed that majority of Nepalese electricity is consumed due to residential 
loads. That way, in 2018, 43,5% of electrical energy was consumed by domestic sector, 37,53% 
by industry, 10,49% by buildings (3,11% by tertiary non-commercial and 7.38% by commercial 
destination), 8.43% by other sectors19 [NEA-18]. Developing EEL for residential sector should be 
seen as a priority for Nepal. 

In Nepal, there is no clear policies on lighting technologies directly, although some incentives on 
clean  energy  associated  with  lighting  existed.  Standalone  solar  photovoltaic  street  lighting 
utilising LEDs has become a wide spread practice. Alternative Energy Promotion Centre (AEPC) 
in collaboration with different municipalities has been installing Solar Power LED Street Light 
with specific purpose. AEPC provides subsidy to renewable energy- based technologies to secure 
the  socio-economic  development  of  communities  by  utilising  the  available  natural  resources 
with best technology. That way, it is expected AEPC to provide 40% of subsidy in total cost of 
the solar based energy system in metro and sub-metro municipalities, where 30% cost should 
be covered by the beneficiaries and 30% coming from credit [AEP-16].  

As per the data provided by AEPC, in the fiscal year of 2016/17, 2017/18 and 2018/19, a total 
of 1622, 1 357 and 1 060 solar street light systems have been implemented. On the other hand, 
Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) had installed 1 600 street light with lamp power of 30, 40 and 
60  W  within  Kathmandu  Valley  at  various  locations.  Some  innovative  concepts  that  links 
business and lighting just implementing, in which private company owned street lighting system 
with advertisement display as source of revenue. In past few years more than 2000 lamps of 
30 and 40 watt had been installed in such business-oriented concept. [BIS-19] 

Following CSIL, with a value of almost US$ 1,3 billion in 2016, Australia is estimated to account 
for 1,4% of the worldwide lighting fixtures consumption. Approximately 74% of its consumption 
is satisfied by imported lighting fixtures. This share has been progressively increasing, especially 
in the residential segment, where Chinese imports have been substituting the local production. 
Overall, Australia is a net importer, with a trade deficit of USD 861 million. In 2016, the share 
of LED-base lighting fixtures was approximately 45% of the market; it is forecasted to reach 
65% of the total market by 2021. In the country, the top 50 players hold more than 75%, the 
professional segment emerged to be more concentrated than the consumer one. [CSI-17] 

In  Australia,  smart  lighting  is  also  advancing.  The  smart  home  technologies  reached  a 
penetration rate of 17,5% in 2020 and is expected to hit 35,2% by 2025. The national revenue 
in the Comfort and Lighting segment is projected to reach US$ 139 million in 2020. Revenue is 
expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2020-2025) of 17,5%, resulting in a projected 
market volume of US$ 420million by 2025. The Smart bulbs penetration is estimated to be at 
12,6% in 2020, while the average expenditure per installed Smart Home currently is expected 
to amount to US$ 77,43. [STA-19c] 

As reported by CSIL, in 2016, the market for lighting fixtures in New Zealand was worth less 
than one-fifth of the  Australian one, approximately US$ 241  million with an increase  of 8% 
compared  to  2015.  Approximately  82%  of  its  consumption  is  satisfied  by  imported  lighting 
fixtures. Over the last five years, it has shown an average annual growth of almost +13%. In 
New  Zealand,  the  lighting  fixtures  market  is  even  more  open  to  foreign  players  than  the 
Australian one, as 80% of its consumption is satisfied by imported lighting fixtures. In 2016, the 
LED-base lighting fixtures segment amounted to US$ 110 million and the top 50 players hold 
more than 75% of the total market. [CSIL-17] 

Australia 

New 
Zealand 

3.1.2.6  Other countries - Russian Federation 

Russia is one of the world’s coldest countries, lying mostly above 55° latitude north, with permafrost on two-
thirds of its territory. Compared with Central Europe, its cold climate increases the cost of energy used in lighting 
and heating buildings by 20%. [ERI-14] In 2009, Russian Federation who was rather lagging behind from other 
countries  in  adopting  an  Energy  Efficient  Lighting  (EEL)  program,  inaugurated  the  TRAMEL  joint  UNDP/GEF 
Project 20. According to TRAMEL Project Document, 14% of Russian’s Federation electricity consumption could 

19 The remaining 0,05% was exported to India in 2018. 
20 The TRAMEL Project was approved by the GEF CEO on April 7, 2010. 

51 

 
 
                                                                 
be attributed to lighting, in the order of 137,5 TWh at that time for powering approximately 0,8 billion electric 
lamps, this can be reduced by 57 TWh/yr just by replacing Incandescent lamps by more efficient technologies 
(CFLs mainly ate that time). [TRA-09] As basis, the Federal Law n° 261 (November 2009) on “Saving Energy 
and Increasing Energy Efficiency, and Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation” was 
adopted  introducing  a  number  of  concrete  measures,  incentives  and  mechanisms  to  promote  energy  and 
ecological efficiency in all sectors of the economy. The law for lighting entered in action in 2011. TRAMEL project 
estimated that under BAU assumptions with the restrictions imposed by this new law only 5% of the annual 
potential savings could be achieved. The initial project duration was fixed to 5 years but it was extended twice 
until April 30, 2017. Because of these extensions, LED technology was included in the project (2015). A direct 
outcome  linked  to  the  project  was  the  promulgation  by  the  Government  of  decree  #898  (on  July  1,  2016) 
specifying MEPS for EEL devices for public procurement. According to the Final Project Evaluation report, at the 
end  of  the  project  in  2017  a  reduction  5,55  Mt/yr  of  CO2  emissions  is  effective  (initial  target:  2  Mt/yr) 
corresponding to 10,1 TWh/yr Indirect energy savings, thanks to the market transformation and incandescent 
lamps’ phase out (initial target 4 TWh/yr) [TRA-17] 

In March 2017, a Draft Governmental Decree listing the MEPS of lighting products for the Russian market was 
developed and agreed by relevant ministries. The MEPS on this Decree also impose the phase-out of inefficient 
lighting devices similar to those listed in Decree #898. The phase-out is to be implemented in 2 stages and 
concerns  (1)  a  phase-out  of  all  CFLs  with  E14  and  E27  base  (2)  a  ban  on  all  mercury  vapour  HID  lamps 
regardless of their installed capacity (3) a ban on all inefficient sodium HID lamps (with luminous efficacy < 
75-85 lm/W – depending on whether these are for indoor or outdoor use) (4) a total ban on all halo-phosphate 
LFL  lamps  (5)  a  ban  on  all  electro-magnetic  drivers.  As  it  can  be  seen  in  Figure  43  the  project  led  to  an 
observable increase of LED penetration in the national market, of course, this trend is expected to continue and 
amplify thanks to the adopted national policies. 

Figure 43: Evolution of penetration rate of different lighting technologies in Russian federation during the execution of 
TRAMEL project (data from [TRA-17]) 

Russia is actively trying to catch-up with the technology (only 1% of smart bulb penetration in 2020). Statista 
estimated that the revenue in the Comfort and Lighting segment in households to be US$ 52 million in 2020. 
This national market revenue is points to an annual growth rate (CAGR 2020-2025) of 27,0%, resulting in a 
projected market volume of US$ 173 million by 2025. 

According to [CSI-18b], in 2018, the Russian market for lighting fixtures is projected to reach RUB 107 billion, 
registering an increase of 6,2% (-4.8% if measured in EUR due to a strong depreciation of the rouble) compared 
to 2017. It should be underlined that fixtures sales are not uniform across the Federation territory: the Moscow 
Region totalises more than € 250 million sales while the far eastern region accounts for less than € 50 million. 
During the year the top 50 players, which account for almost 50% of the market, performed slightly better than 
the total market -(-3,8% compared to 2017, in EUR). [CSI-18b] 

52 

 
 
 
NB. Considering the local currency, between 2013 and 2018, the Russian market for lighting fixtures has grown 
by an average rate of 11,8% per year. Several factors concurred to explain such a positive result. Firstly, despite 
currency  instabilities  and  political  uncertainties,  the  Russian  economic  growth  has  remained  robust.  Private 
consumption has benefited from rising wages, household credit and employment; large infrastructure projects 
have boosted both public and private investment. Second, the recent years have witnessed the rapid rise of  
LED lighting technology. Due to the sharp drop in their cost and their remarkable performance in energy saving 
and emission reduction, LED lighting products have been generally accepted by consumers, resulting in a higher 
and higher penetration rate as well as a fast-shrinking market for conventional lighting products. CSIL estimates 
that in 2018, LED lighting reached a share of 52% of the market and it is projected to reach 69% of the market 
by 2022. [CSI-18b] 

3.1.3  Update from the LED industrial ecosystem 

The LED lighting ecosystem comprises hardware component manufacturers, prototype designers, and original 
equipment manufacturers (OEMs) such as Phillips Lighting Holding B.V. (Netherlands), General Electric Company 
(U.S.), OSRAM  Licht  AG (Germany), Cree, Inc. (U.S.), Cooper Industries, Inc. (Ireland), Virtual Extension (Israel), 
Dialight plc (U.K.), Zumtobel Group AG (Austria), Samsung (South Korea), and Sharp Corporation (Japan). The 
objective  of  this  section  is  not  to  provide  an  exhaustive  list,  but  to  highlight  the  most  striking  effect  in  the 
reference period. 

Table 12: Ranking of the top 10 packaged LED manufacturers 

According to [AIC-18], based on LEDInside information, Chinese LED package market scale was US$ 10 billion 
in 2017, representing an increase of 12% YoY. Among the top ten manufacturers, illustrated in Table 12, four 
are international firms, two are Taiwan companies and four are Chinese enterprises. Noticeably, it was the first 
time that Jufei appeared on the rank list. In addition, the top ten manufacturers represented a market share of 
48%. MLS surpassed Nichia for the first time, ranking No.1 in Chinese market, and its market share reached 
8,5%. Moreover, MLS possessed number-one market share in both light decoration market and lighting market. 
Table 12 indicates the top-10 of packaged LED manufacturers. 

Acuity Brands (USA), funded in 2001, is one of the leading LED lighting manufacturers in the world, specialising 
in lighting, controls and daylighting systems. It offers a wide range of indoor and outdoor lighting solutions 
suitable for every application and environment. The company’s diverse portfolio of lighting products caters to 
several industries including education, commercial offices, healthcare, hospitality, government, industrial, retail, 
residential, transportation, roadway, bridges, tunnels, sewer and dams. The company is focusing on developing 
new technologically advanced products such as solid-state LED lighting integrated with digital controls, organic 
LED lighting (OLED) and variety of LED-based lamps. The digital lighting systems manufactured by this company 
comes  equipped  with  eldoLED  driver  technology,  which  provides  superior  system  performance,  innovative 
features and a wide range of power levels. Lighting revenue: US$ 3,29 billion (FY 2016) 

CREE Inc. (USA) is one of the world leaders in the domain of Light Emitting Diodes.  Indeed, CREE’s LED Products 
segment's consist of LED chips and LED components. Those LED products enable our customers to develop and 
market LED-based products for lighting, video screens, automotive and specialty lighting applications. CREE’s 
Lighting  Products  segment  consists  primarily  of  LED  lighting  systems  and  lamps.  The  company  designs, 
manufactures and sells lighting fixtures and lamps for the commercial, industrial and consumer markets. Figure 
44 shows CREE’s revenue and gross profit from those two product segments for the period 2016-19. It can be 
seen that LED segment’s gross profit is almost stable (~27% of the revenues in average) while it decreases for 
Lighting Products. 

53 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 44: CREE’s revenue and gross profits for the LED and Lighting product segments (data from [CRE-18], [CRE-19]) 

On May 13, 2019, CREE sold its Lighting Products  business  unit to  IDEAL Industries, Inc. The aggregate net 
proceeds  from the  sale of the Lighting Products business  unit was  US$ 219 million in cash; Further, a LED 
Supply Agreement has been signed to supply IDEAL with certain CREE LED chip and component products for 
three years. [CRE-19] 

To  maintain  its  position  in  the  LED  market  CREE  invested  massively  to  R&D:  on  average,  the  R&D  budget 
represents every year 15% of the revenues, this is leading to a rapid increase of the amounts invested. 

Figure 45: CREE’s R&D budget evolution (data from [CRE-19]) 

Eaton lighting division (Ireland) delivers a broad range of innovative and reliable indoor and outdoor lighting 
and control solutions. These lighting systems find use in several applications including commercial, industrial, 
retail, institutional, utility and residential applications. The company is leveraging the latest technologies to help 
businesses and communities improve efficiency, reduce costs as well as protect the environment. The company 
offers a diverse line of connected systems such as ConnectWorks Connected Lighting System, DALI Lighting 
Control, Halo Home, ILumin Plus, LumaWatt Pro Wireless Connected Lighting System and WaveLinx Wireless 
Connected Lighting System. [TEC-19] 

Everlight Electronics is known as one of the world’s largest LED lighting manufacturers. Initially positioned 
as a light source supplier, Everlight now develops COB technology and is seeking to enter the automotive lighting 
business, positioning itself as an advanced module supplier. It offers a wide range of products portfolio including 
high power LEDs, SMD LEDs, lamps, lighting components, LED lighting modules, digital displays, opto-couplers 
and infrared components for various applications. The street lighting products produced by this company have 
high brightness and over 80 CRI, thereby creating a comfortable environment. Everlight LED bulbs, tubes and 
candles  act  as  omni-directional  lighting  sources  and  are  mostly  used  in  indoor  applications.  The  company’s 
horticulture LEDs can replicate sunlight and can be fine-tuned according to the specific needs of the customer. 
[TEC-19] 

54 

 
 
 
 
GE  Lighting  (USA)  one  of  the  former  “Big-three”  in  the  domain  of  lighting,  specialises  in  creating  optimal 
lighting solutions for homes. GE LED light bulbs are known for their high-energy savings and durability. C by GE 
is a line of smart lighting products, having the functions, features and voice control of Amazon Alexa. These 
range of smart lamps have features such as visual timers and sleep/wake cycle support and can be controlled 
by voice. Lighting revenue: US$ 1,99 billion (FY 2017). [TEC-19] 

With subsidiaries in more than 50 countries and business activities in over 140 countries, Ledvance is one of 
the world's leading general lighting companies for professional customers and end-consumers. Originating from 
Osram's general lighting division, Ledvance's portfolio includes a wide range of LED luminaires for a variety of 
applications, intelligent lighting products for smart homes and smart buildings, one of the most comprehensive 
offerings of advanced LED lamps in the lighting industry and traditional lamps. Based on an agreement with 
Osram, Ledvance will continue to use the Osram brand name for many of its products (Sylvania in the USA and 
Canada). - www.ledvance.co.uk 

Nichia Corporation (Japan) is one of the world’s top LED lighting manufacturers in terms of revenue generated 
from the sales of LED packages. It designs and manufactures LEDs for displays, LCD backlighting, automotive 
and general lighting purposes. The world’s first white LED was developed by this company by combining yellow 
phosphor and blue LED. The company also produces UV-LED which is used in applications that require rigorous 
quality  checks  such  as  high  precision  curing,  ink  curing,  bill  checking,  counterfeit  detection  and  lithography. 
Nichia LED packages are characterised by high efficiency, flexible cluster configurations, and high luminous flux 
density. Nichia standard LED, which has uniform spatial distribution, excellent temperature stability and lighting 
reproducibility, is developed in collaboration with Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST). Lighting 
revenue: US$ 2,42 billion (FY 2016). [TEC-19] As reported by [AIC-18] Nichia released in 2018 the news that 
the company decided to expand LED production capacity by building a new plant in response to the increasing 
demands of lighting and backlight LEDs as well as the applications for automotive use and others. The new 
plant is scheduled to start running in October 2020 and with the new capacity added, Nichia plans to double 
the production of Naruto factory in 2021. The major revenue of Nichia depends on white LED. However, Nichia 
has strategically intensified its momentum in high margin LED products including automotive lighting. 

Philips Lighting (Netherlands), the pioneer of the lighting industry. It has been officially known as Signify 
since May 2018. However, it can use the brand name “Philips” for its products until 2030. When Philips was 
founded  in  1891,  its  plan  was  to  provide  cost-effective  and  reliable  electric  incandescent  light  bulbs  for 
everyone. For over 120 years, Philips lighting has been making people’s lives more comfortable and productive 
by  offering  high  quality  lighting  solutions  for  public  places,  professional  spaces  and  homes.  By  using  a 
combination of patented technologies, Philips lighting systems can connect seamlessly with other digital devices, 
thereby benefitting the customer and the environment.  

Figure 46: 2018 and 2019 Signify’s (a) Business Groups and (b) world-regional market distribution. Inner ring is 2018 
and outer ring 2019. Data from [SIG-19] and [SIG-19] 

(a) 

(b) 

Philips Hue is a wireless lighting system by which one can control the lights and create the right ambience for 
any moment. This line of  connected lighting system works with a range of different  smart  devices and  can 
connect  with  Amazon  Echo,  Google  Home  and  Apple  Homekit.    [TEC-19].  Signify  employs  ~29 000  people 
worldwide and its global lighting revenue is € 6,38 billion (FY 2018) and € 6,22 billion (FY2019). The LED based 
sales of Signify passed from 65% in 2017 to 71% in 2018 and 78% in 2019, however the net income reduced 
from  €  281  million  to  €  267  million  within  the  2017-19  period.  [SIG-18],  [SIG-19]  Figure  46  gives  some 
additional information about Signify’s market shares in 2019. 

Germany-based Osram, with ~12 000 employees worldwide, is number 2 in the lighting industry worldwide 
and  number  3  in  the  high-power  LED  components.  In  2017  Osram  earned  US$  4,9  billion  in  revenues.  The 

55 

 
 
                      
                                    
 
 
General Lighting segment accounts for 15% of the global revenues while the automotive segment accounts for 
50%; the remaining 35% is gathered by the segment Industry and Mobile Devices. The company also offers 
digital lighting systems that helps customers deliver smart building and IoT projects. Since 2007 Osram has 
tripled its revenues at high profitability through the cycle. In the same decade the average annual EBITDA of 
the company  was  ~28% and the CAGR of 10%. [KAM-18] Figure 47 shows the evolution of Osram’s global 
market share for packaged LED. With ~10% share in 2018 the company positions itself in 2nd position, close to 
the leader Nichia (Japan) who cover ~12% of the market. 

Figure 47: Osram’s shares in the packaged LED market (data from [KAM-18] 

Zumtobel  Group  (Austria)  offers  innovative,  high-quality  lighting  solutions  and  components  as  well  as 
associated services for customers worldwide. In 2019, the group had 6 000 employees and cumulated €1,14 
billion  of  revenues 21.  The  group  invested  massively  in  innovation  at  least  until  2016.  In  2019  the  group 
dedicated €65,9 million in R&D. Figure 48 shows the efforts in increasing R&D budget by dedicating every year 
a higher percentage of the sales revenue in the decade 2005-16.  

Figure 48: R&D budget evolution in Zumtobel group (data from [VAM-16]) 

Seoul  Semiconductor  (South  Korea)  has  more  than  12  000  patents  related  to  LED  lightings  in  its  name, 
including EPI, packaging, optics and modules. The company has invested in research and development for the 
last two decades to develop package free LED technology, “WICOP” and AC driven LED technology, “Acrich”. The 
company’s SunLike LED technology replicates sunlight by replacing blue LED light source with a purple light LED 
chip.  The  company  strives  to  provide  its  customers  with  safe  and  environment  friendly  products  by  strictly 
inspecting and managing all parts and raw materials used in their products. Seoul expects the FY 2020 third 
quarter revenues to be between KRW 290 billion and 310 billion, increasing 8% - 16% on a quarter-on-quarter 
and 2% - 9% on a YoY basis exceeding market consensus of KRW 284 billion and operating profit of KRW 14 
billion. [SEO-20] 

21 Data from Zumtobel’s web page: https://z.lighting/en/group/company/ 

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3.2  Organic LEDs 

3.2.1  Market size & segments 

Today, the automotive lighting is the most promising and most mature application market for OLED lighting. 
Indeed,  lighting  became  a  significant  feature  of  cars  with  potential  value  rather  than  its  basic  functions 
consisting “on see and be seen”. OLEDs have the real potential to differentiate themselves from LEDs and can 
provide new added values for the automotive sector [EVA-18]. Such way, since 2016, automotive segment is 
accessed by proposing commercial OLED tail lights for cars (BMW  M4 GTS), but also, they  can be found as 
signal lights in other sectors as the aerospace industry. 

Important resources are invested in R&D to achieve some stringent requirements linked to such applications. 
As an example, in 2020, OLEDWorks and Acuity Brands were awarded with US$ 150 000 a 12-month project 
in  the  frame  of  US-National  Shipbuilding  Research  Program  (NSRP)  to  perform  research  on  marine  OLED 
lighting. This project is the continuation of the earlier Low-Voltage Shipboard Lighting Feasibility Study, it is 
assumed refining shipboard configuration, optimizing size & weight to maximize the inherent advantages of 
the OLED technology [MER-20]. 

According to LEDinside, the size of global OLED lighting panel market has reached about US$ 153 million in 
2017. The size of OLED lighting market is expected to reach more than US$ 1,1 billion by 2020 [EVA-18]. The 
value of China’s OLED market grew from US$ 530 million in 2011 to US$ 10,35 billion in 2017, a compound 
annual growth rate of 64,2%. [HKT-19] 

3.2.2  Pricing and manufacturing costs 

According to [EVA-18], OLED lighting products have no longer opportunities for a “price war” with LEDs. The only 
breakthrough will be high-end designs such as diffuse area light source (no glare), no blue light hazard, and 
flexible/bendable  products,  which  help  OLED  avoid  direct  pricing  and  performance  competition  with  LED 
products. In addition, OLED technology must also combine several niche markets, including medical lighting and 
embedded lighting, in order to realize economies of scale and to reduce costs. Therefore, OLED lighting will also 
have the chance to improve the performance-cost ratio due to the entire market’s status quo. As a paradigm, 
China’s OLED display industry capacity expansion can substantially improve the yield rate in OLED industry and 
lowering the costs that can be echo to the lighting segment. However, today the cost of displays for OLED TV 
is  around  US$  800/m2,  which  still  stays  high  for  general  lighting  applications.  DOE  estimates  that  the 
manufacturing cost of OLED lighting panels needs to be reduced to about US$ 200/m2. This will allow luminaires 
to be sold in the range of US$ 400/m2 to US$ 600/m2 [DOE-20]. Figure 49 illustrates the DOE’s price target per 
kilo-lumen and the correlation with the total yielded manufacturing cost per square meter. 

Figure 49: (a) DOE’s target price for OLED panels in US$/klm. Data from [DOE-20] 

(a) 

(b) 

To achieve this drastic cost reduction, it is necessary to (1) understand how the panel manufacturing cost split 
and (2) increase drastically the production capacity. Figure 50 shows the split into major cost sectors incurring 
in OLED panel produced by traditional methods. 

57 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure 50: Split of major cost inuring in OLED panel manufacturing. Data from [DOE-20] 

Further, as shown clearly in Figure 51 the manufacturing cost reduces rapidly with the increase of production 
capacity. 

Figure 51: Correlation between total unyielded manufacturing costs and production capacity. Data from [DOE-20] 

Back to the existing reality, it was possible to find in the early market OLED panel task lights (~400 lm) at a 
price in the order of US$ 250 corresponding roughly to US$ 600 per kilo-lumen [MER-15]. More recently a desk 
Lamp  features  a  single  OLEDWorks  Lumiblade  Brite  FL300  OLED  panel,  which  is  46x222  mm2  in  size  and 
features 300 lm at 3 000K CCT/ 80 CRI and a lifetime of 10 000 hours for less than US$90 (~US$ 300/klm or 
US$ 8 715/mm2) [MER-17b]. Further a well-known Swedish store chain commercialise a 9 W OLED luminaire, 
composed by 7 OLED panels to provide 700 lm at 2 700K for €199 (~US$ 340/klm) [MER-17]. As can be seen, 
match  the  DOE  predictions  by  2035  is  a  major  challenge  for  industry  and  as  DOE  projects  a  cumulative 
investment of US$ 725 millions would be necessary for the next 15 years [DOE-20].  

3.2.3  Industrial ecosystem 

The ambition of this paragraph is not to establish an exhaustive list of the companies involved to OLED lighting 
business. In any case, as OLED lighting is an emerging technology, industrial ecosystem is rapidly evolving and 
volatile. The information contained in this paragraph is mainly based on data from OLED-info web last updated 
on  Jun  23rd,  2019  [OLE-19].  Table  13  gives  a  rapid  summary  of  the  latest  activities  of  the  main  OLED 
manufacturers and shows the geographical distribution of the main industrial actors. 

58 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure 52: Geographical distribution of the main industrial actors in the OLED Lighting ecosystem 

Table 13: Rapid summary of the main’s industrial actors in OLED Lighting arena 

Acuity Brands 

ALKILU 

Blackbody 

Fisrt-O-Lite 

General Electric 

Acuity Brands is one of the world's largest lighting solution providers. Acuity 
Brands is involved with OLED based lighting fixtures and installations for 
many years, using panels by both LG and OLEDWorks. In April 2019 Acuity 
Brands announced it has decided to exclusively rely on OLEDWorks panels. 
[OLE-19] http://www.acuitybrands.com 
ALKILU was founded in 2013 by Alex Khayat, a technology expert with over a 
decade of experience in OLED industry research and development. Alkilu has 
a diverse range of products - from night lights, to bike lights and music 
conductor stands. They develop a portable OLED lamp with rechargeable 
battery that offers 30 hours of light and it can be fully recharged using a 
USB power adapter or solar charger in just four hours. A partnership with 
Visionox (Chinese company) will significantly speed up the process – 
enabling us to get new and existing OLED products into the hands of 
consumers at an extremely low price point. http://www.alkilu.com/ 
Blackbody is a brand devoted to OLED lighting applications. Blackbody covers 
all the aspects from design study to mass production. The company offers 
OLED lamps and installations (it does not offer stand-alone panels), and 
sometimes use 3rd-party panels in its OLED lamps. Blackbody has a unique, 
global expertise offering OLED solutions for aeronautics, medicine and the 
automobile industry, notably for Airbus and BMW. It also offers ready to 
install lighting products for residential use, conceived by the biggest names 
in design. http://www.blackbody.fr/en 
First-O-Lite was established in 2010 in Nanjing, China. The company is 
developing OLED lighting panels (based on a hybrid tandem architecture) 
and has a 2-Gen OLED lighting production fab that is currently producing 70 
lm/W OLED lighting panels. First-O-Lite focuses on finding niche OLED 
applications, mostly the health market, and it has released 29 products into 
the Chinese market aimed for babies and kids lighting. In March 2017 we 
posted an article detailing the company's current product offering and its 
strategy and roadmaps. In November 2013 the company announced it has 
developed the world's most efficient OLED lighting module at 111,7 lm/W. 
[OLE-19] http://www.first-o-lite.cn 
GE had an active OLED lighting program, collaborating with Tokki and 
Konica-Minolta on roll-to-roll printing of OLEDsGE started the OLED project 
since 2010, and its global R&D Center claimed to make a "major 
breakthrough" in white OLED during the joint development with Konica 
Minolta. It is reported that their white OLED products achieved a luminous 
efficacy of 56 lm/W, using solution-based coating materials, which is an 
important condition for making OLEDs to lower the costs. GE did not update 
on their OLED Program since 2010, though, but GE and Konika-Minolta 

59 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
launched the first flexible OLED lighting product in 2011. [OLE-19] [EVA-18] 
http://www.ge.com 

Kaneka is a Japanese materials company that active with plastics, PVC and 
caustic soda, foodstuffs, pharmaceuticals and other markets. Kaneka have 
been working on OLED Lighting since 2008, producing panels in low volume 
mainly for large installations. In 2015 Kaneka announced new 50,000 hours 
OLED panels, and in June 2017 Kaneka unveiled its latest lighting fixture. 
The Kumiko is a fully-customizable modular tile system that can be 
vertically-mounted on a surface or built into complex architectural designs. 
The Kumiko panels offer diffused light that looks like stanned-glass 
windows. The panels have a mirror surface when not in use. Kaneka did not 
disclose the technical specification of these Kumiko panels. Kaneka's current 
annual OLED lighting production capacity is about 20,000 panels. Kaneka 
aims to accelerate OLED lighting development and reach sales of ¥50 billion 
(~€400 million) by 2020. [OLE-19] http://www.kaneka.co.jp/kaneka-e/ 
Konica Minolta (KM) is based in Japan and is involved in copiers, printers, 
medical equipment, optical devices and thin films used to enhance picture 
quality in LCD. KM is developing and producing OLED for lighting, and in 
March 2014 the company announced that it is starting to construct a R2R 
flexible OLED lighting fab with plans to start production in the fall of 2014. 
The fab is not in mass production stage yet, although KM does produce 
samples and in February 2015 the company shipped 15000 flexible OLEDs 
to a Tulip Festival installation in Japan. In 2017 Konica Minolta and Pioneer 
announced that the two companies will setup a joint venture, which will be 
called Konica Minolta Pioneer OLED (KMPO) and will focus on OLED lighting 
for automotive applications. In 2019 KMPO was dissolved following Pioneer's 
withdrawal from the OLED lighting market and the operations moved back 
into Konica Minolta. [OLE-19], [EVA-18] http://www.konicaminolta.com 
LG-Display (LGD) based in Korea, is one of the world's largest display 
makers. LGD produces screens for TVs, laptops and mobile devices. LGD 
continued to deploy in OLED segment in 2017 and initiated large-scale 
investment in the field of display. At the same time, LGD also actively 
approached BMW regarding the sales of OLED lighting products. It is 
reported that LGD will supply products including taillights and interior 
lighting components to BMW. In addition, LGD also unveiled its new OLED 
brand Luflex at the end of 2017 and announced that Luflex will sell its OLED 
lighting products in the future with automotive application as its top priority, 
followed by commercial lighting and lighting manufacturers. Towards the 
end of 2015 LGD acquired LG Chem's OLED lighting business unit for US$ 
135 million, and is now in charge of LG's OLED lighting too. As for the future, 
LGD aims to be the largest OLED lighting brand worldwide [EVA-18], [OLE-
19]. http://www.lgdisplay.com 
Lumiotec, located at Yonezawa City, Japan, was formed in May 2008 by 
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, ROHM, Toppan Printing and Mitsui to check the 
viability of OLED panels for lighting, and to manufacture and sell the panels. 
In March 2009 Lumiotec showed their first OLED lighting prototype, and the 
company is now offering panels online - making about 60,000 panels a year. 
Here's our hands-on review with their Version 1 development kit and square 
OLED panel and here is some details on Lumitec's technology. In early 2018 
V-Technology announced it is set to acquire Lumiotec. [OLE-19] 
http://www.lumiotec.com 
OLEDWorks was established in July 2010 by former Kodak OLED business 
experts and has become one of the OLED lighting leaders. OLEDWorks 
acquired Philips' OLED light source components business and associated 
intellectual property rights in April 2015. OLEDWorks produces panels in both 
Rochester, New York and Aachen, Germany (the former Philips' site). The 
company offers a wide range of OLED panels and related products, and in 
November 2018 OLEDWorks started to ship its first flexible OLED lighting 
panels. [EVA-18], [OLE-19] http://www.oledworks.com 

60 

Kaneka 

Konica Minolta 

LG-Display 

Lumiotec 

OLEDWorks 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OSRAM Opto 
Semiconductors 

Universal Display 
Corporation 

Yeolight Technology 

Osram Opto Semiconductors GmbH, Regensburg, is a wholly owned 
subsidiary of OSRAM, a leading supplier and manufacturer of lighting 
solutions who employs more than 35 000 people throughout the world. 
OSRAM announced the closure of its OLED display factory in Malaysia in July 
2007, shifting its focus to OLED lighting applications. OSRAM released the 
world's first OLED lamp back in 2008, but this was more of a prototype than 
a commercial product. In November 2009 they have started to ship their first 
OLED lighting panel, the ORBEOS, and here's our hands-on review of those 
panels. In the past 10 years, OSRAM not only released OLED lamps, but also 
became the industry pioneer of automotive OLED lighting. In 2014 or so 
OSRAM shifted its OLED lighting focus to the automotive market. OSRAM 
was the first company to supply OLED lighting panels for serially produced 
cars as it supplies the OLEDs for BMW's M4 GTS taillights and also the OLED 
lighting in Audi's TT RS Coupe 2016. Companies, including BMW and Audi, 
released cars embedding OLED lighting in taillights during 2015 and 2016, 
and many of the OLED lighting components are supplied by OSRAM. In 2018 
OSRAM decided to pull out of the OLED lighting market. The company will 
continue to provide product support for both automakers until 2020, and will 
continue to monitor the market. [EVA-18], [OLE-19] http://www.osram-
os.com/osram_os/en 
Universal Display Corporation (UDC) founded in 1994, by Sherwin Seligsohn 
It is US based with 311 employees and international offices in China, Hong 
Kong, Ireland, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Universal Display Corporation 
is a leader in the research, development and commercialization of organic 
light emitting diode technologies and materials for use in display and solid-
state lighting applications. UDC’s mission is to be a key enabler in the OLED 
ecosystem and help grow the OLED industry with our broad and deep 
experience and know-how, proprietary OLED technologies and PHOLED 
(phosphorescent OLED) emissive materials’ systems. Universal W-OLED™ 
OLED lighting has the potential to reach more than 150 lm/W. UDC has a 
5 000+ world class patent portfolio. Based on UDC proprietary Universal 
PHOLED® technology and materials, OLEDs have the potential to offer power 
efficiencies that are superior to those for today’s incandescent bulbs and 
fluorescent tubes. UDC is a Nasdaq company and the CY2019 revenue was 
~US$ 405 million. Information from: https://oled.com/ 
Yeolight technology is a company separated from Visionox in May 2015 with 
a focus on OLED lighting manufacturing. Visionox was initially an OLED 
project group in Tsinghua University, and was established as an OLED 
company later. Visionox is now one of the leading OLED manufacturers in 
China as part of Kunshan Govisionox Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. It mainly 
focuses on lighting products, including automotive and general lighting. The 
company's hybrid encapsulation technology enables OLED devices to be built 
on ultrathin, flexible plastic substrates while effectively offsetting the 
permeation of oxygen and moisture that may decay the light panels. In 
September 2016 Yeolight's 2.5-Gen OLED production line went into trial 
operation. The initial investment for this project was RMB 400 million. In 
November 2016 Yeolight introduced its first OLED lamp, using panels 
acquired from LG Display. The company's 0,1 mm flexible OLED panel was 
specifically designed for automotive rear lighting applications. With improved 
external quantum efficiency (EQE), reduced roll-off properties, and features 
like dynamic lighting, Yeolight's OLED taillights offer superior efficacy and 
design flexibility without sacrificing color quality. [EVA-18], [OLE-19] 
http://www.yeolight.com/ 

3.3  Smart & Human-centric Lighting 

Smart lighting has emerged as one of the most disruptive technologies over the past five years. Advanced 
LED lights are offering a significant bottom-line saving in terms of energy costs. These units are being offered 
by companies as a part of IoT systems for enabling highly connected infrastructure. This provides users with 
extra control to effectively  manage smart lighting systems. With cheaper  &  smarter lights  rapidly replacing 
CFLs and incandescent bulbs, smart and connected digital lighting using IoT is expected to bring an excellent 
intelligence and functionality into lighting systems. [GMI-19]  

61 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
According  to  a  recently  released  research  report  from  Global  Market  Insights,  Smart  Lighting  Market  is 
estimated in 2018 ~US$ 7,5 billion and to grow at CAGR between 15% (from 2019 to 2025) and 20% (from 
2018 to 2024). [GMI-19], [AIC-18] Thus, it is expected to reach US$ 23-24 billion in the 2025 horizon. Other 
analysts from Market and Markets report that the smart lighting market is estimated to grow from US$ 13,4 
billion in 2020 and are projected to reach US$ 30,6 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 18%. [MAM-19] 

The  smart  lighting  market  growth  is  attributed  to  worldwide  initiatives  for  smart  city  development  and  the 
growing popularity of home and building automation systems in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. 
As the modernised smart city infrastructure offers intelligent connectivity among different components of the 
administrative  framework  such  as  transport,  healthcare,  and  law  &  order,  further  initiatives  for  developing 
smart  cities  are  likely  to  be  undertaken  aggressively  around  the  world  over  the  next  decade.  [AIC-18]  For 
instance, according to Statista, US households “becoming smarter”: in 2020, 28,4 million among them gather a 
smart/connected comfort/lighting control and it is expected to increase to 45,8 million smart household by 2024 
(Smart home technology penetration is ~22,1% in 2020 and is expected to hit 40,5% by 2025);. [STA-20] [STA-
20b] The national market revenue in the Comfort and Lighting segment for residential sector is projected by 
Statista to reach US$ 3,05 billion in 2020. The segment’s revenue is expected to show an annual growth rate 
(CAGR 2020-2025) of 20,7%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$7,82 billion by 2025. [STA-19c] To 
compare, ~10% in average of European households affirming to possess smart systems 22. 

Even if today connected lighting systems (CLS) relies on wired communication technologies, i.e. DALI (this 
represents 70% of the market in 2018) [GMI-19], the rising adoption of Li-Fi technology and the integration of 
advanced  technologies,  such  as  Bluetooth,  ZigBee,  and  Wi-Fi,  into  lighting  solutions  are  powerful  market 
development drivers. In addition, the adoption of such technologies that allow the smart bulb to be controlled 
through mobile apps or home/building automation hubs will transform fundamentally the market, dominated 
today  by  hardware 23,  towards  to  the  IoTs  and  digital  lighting  era.  It  is  forecasted  that  wireless  technology 
segment will grow at a CAGR of more than 21% for the period 2019-25. 

Further,  the  rapid  surge  in  the  number  of  smart  city  development  initiatives  and  investments  has  further 
accelerated the adoption of the market. Taking into account that today more than 60% of the world energy is 
consumed in cities, it is crystal-clear that smart lighting constitutes a huge potential for rational use of energy. 

Looking closer, [GMI-19] reports that, even if in 2018 Europe with 35% market shares is leading the market, 
APAC world region with a 19% CAGR (2019-25) will take definitively the lead in the next couple of years. This 
growth can be attributed to the large-scale adoption of LED lamps in the APAC Region. 

Outdoor  lighting  is  expected  to  grow  at  a  CAGR  of  approximately  20%  for  the  period  2019-25  [GIM-19]. 
TrendForce’s latest 2020 Global LED Lighting Market Report by analyst Christine Liu shows that, by 2024, the 
global LED smart street light market scale will expect to reach US$ 1,1 billion with CAGR of 8,2% during 2019-
2024. [LDI-20]. Navigant Research estimates the global market for smart street lighting to be worth US$ 837,4 
million in 2018 and forecasted that it will grow to nearly US$ 8,3 billion globally by 2027, representing a CAGR 
of 28,9%. [NAV-18] It seems rather difficult to compare the forecasts… 

The Smart City Council claims  that a total of US$ 12,6 billion is expected to be invested in smart networked 
streetlights from 2016-2026 [SCC-15], when Northeast Group predicts US$ 10,6 billion in the period 2017-27 
[NEG-17],  in  addition  to  the  amount  to  be  invested  for  the  transformation  into  LED  lighting  (see  above 
paragraphs  in  this  report).  Cities  and  utilities  will  network  94,8  million  streetlights  over  the  next  ten  years, 
reaching a 29% penetration rate. 

The per-endpoint costs of networking streetlights are falling rapidly. Currently, the costs outweigh the benefits 
in some countries, but with falling prices, cities that can dim lights at least 20-30% of the time will see positive 
benefits and by 2027. [NEG-17] 

Looking  closer  at  smart  public  street  lighting,  among  its  functional  accessories,  lighting  equipment  itself, 
including LED modular design lamp head and single light controller, is a 100% standard product. According to 
TrendForce’s investigation, the average market price of the highest equipped (selective assembly) smart light 
poles is US$ 6998 per unit, of which lighting equipment is US$ 182,5, accounting for 2,6%. [LDI-20] 

22 Smart systems of any kind, not only lighting. The study has been based on 5 800 respondents via internet questionnaire and 

telephone interviews  

23 Today, hardware is leading the component landscape with more than 80% share in the smart lighting market in 2018, but 

the software market will grow at a CAGR of more than 22% (2019-25) [GMI-19] 

62 

 
 
 
                                                                 
Figure 53: Smart Street Pole Construction Cost Analysis. The lighting module (orange boxes) counts for 2,6% only. Data 
from [LDI-20] 

In the near term, the largest markets will be North America (US), Europe (Germany, France, UK, and Italy), and 
East Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea), particularly for networked streetlights. Indeed, China is today the 
main driver of the global smart street light development around the world. TrendForce believes that the further 
the smart street light goes to the downstream industrial chain, the greater its added value will be. [LDI-20]. 
However, ME region markets will witness higher growth in coming years due (1) to the decision of GCC to Invest 
in R&D of smart and green technology lighting systems to reduce carbon emissions (2) to mega projects planned 
in  the  region,  such  as  Qatar’s  hosting  of  FIFA  World  Cup  2022.  [FRS-17]Figure  54  shows  the  market  size 
forecasted by [MAM-19] distributed among the major world regions. 

Figure 54: Smart lighting market size evolution till 2025 per world region. Data from [MAM-19] 

Even  if  all  indicators  for  smart  street  lighting  deployment  are  in  “green”,  to  achieve  the  forecasted,  albeit 
ambitious,  market  targets  there  are  still  some  barriers  that  can  jam  the  market  transformation.  The  most 
important are identified by [GRF-19] as follows: (a) Siloed nature of many city governments (b) Cooperation of 
multiple  stakeholders  and  complex  financial  arrangements;  (b)  Cyber-attacks  and  data  privacy  issues;  (c) 
Infrastructure complexity; (d) Lifespan of Lighting Infrastructure; (e) High cost combined with lack of proven 
business case. 

An  increasing  number  of  customers  are  looking  to  integrate  smart  home  functions  in  their  residential  area. 
Indoor lighting accounts today for over 78% share in the smart lighting world market. [AIC-18] APAC region 
is leading the market. As example, Figure 55 shows the growth of the market size for smart indoor lighting in 
Japan. 

63 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure 55: Japanese Smart lighting market size, by major sectors, in 2019 and 2025 forecast. Data from [GMI-19] 

Digitalisation of light in the ME region is foreseen by GCC as a mega trend that will see a surge in adoption in 
the  short  term.  For  example,  connected  lighting  indoor  positioning  systems  are  being  used  to  enhance  the 
shopping  experience  in  supermarkets,  and  light  as  a  service  (LaaS)  is  being  offered  to  reduce  electricity 
consumption. [FRS-17] 

Within smart home lighting we can distinguish the segment Comfort and Lighting that includes devices for 
the improvement of the living atmosphere.  These are devices such as sensors and actuators (e.g. door and 
window sensors, shutters) as well as connected and remote controllable light sources (smart bulbs) or garage 
door controls. Today, in almost all countries worldwide individual consumers (especially people in the segment 
of  25-45-year  old)  are  more  and  more  attracted  by  smart  technologies  and  invests  significant  amounts  of 
money to equip their homes with such trendy technologies. Figure 56 shows the 2020 penetration rate of smart 
bulbs in  private houses.  USA is leading with 17,1% followed  by Scandinavian countries (especially Norway). 
China is still behind but its market is growing exponentially. 

Figure 56: Penetration of smart light bulbs in residential sector across the world in 2020. Data aggregated from [STA-
19c] 

Figure 57 shows the financial efforts by private sector to equip smart households with Comfort and Lighting 
related systems. Switzerland is leafing with an effort of ~US$ 130 per smart house, followed by Saudi Arabia 
and Norway where smart households invested per year, in average, ~US$ 125 each in this segment.  

64 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 57: Expenditures per “smart household” in the segment of Comfort and Lighting across the world in 2020. Data 
aggregated from [STA-19c]  

In this segment, the quality of light is fundamental. This pushed Lighting Industry to develop the Human Centric 
Lighting (HCL) concept. Human Centric Lighting is a lighting solution intended to improve a person’s well-
being,  mood,  and  health  by  varying  the  Correlated  Colour  Temperature  and  offering  the  best  light  quality 
according to a task and/or end-user’s preference.  

An example of this type of  products is the Ledvance PARATHOM®  product  series  for residential and  garden 
areas, which can be controlled optionally by voice command or app and offers a suitable solution for a wide 
range of features such as colour and colour temperature change or dimming capabilities. The portfolio includes 
smart lamps in a wide variety of shapes, smart luminaires, products for indoor and outdoor use or plugs for 
integrating conventional light sources. A professional version is also available with either ZigBee or Bluetooth 
technology and allows convenient voice control with digital assistants such as Alexa from Amazon, Siri from 
Apple or Google Assistant. It enables the easy creation of different light scenarios – dimmed, from warm to 
cool white and multi-colour for choosing from 16 million colours. [NES-20] 

According to information released by [AIC-18], HCL market was estimated US$ 445,9 million in 2017 and it is 
anticipated to reach US$ 3,91 billion by 2024 growing at a CAGR of 35,2% during the forecast period.  

According  to  a  market  intelligence  report  by  BIS  Research,  the  demand  for  HCL  solutions  vary  according  to 
geographical regions. Europe led the global HCL market in 2017 in terms of volume and value and is expected 
to  witness  the  highest  growth  during  the  forecast  period  (2018-2024).  This  is  mainly  due  to  the  increased 
adoption rate of HCL solutions across the region. The U.K. and Germany together held approximately 65% of 
the total Europe HCL market. Europe has been on the forefront of HCL in the global scenario and the market in 
Europe is expected to grow at the highest rate during the forecast period (2018-2024). The early adoption of 
HCL solution in this region is primarily driven by the regulatory bodies providing enough research to showcase 
the benefits of HCL across various applications. [BSR-18]  

3.3.1  Industrial ecosystem 

Some of the major players in the smart lighting market are Signify (Philips Lighting) (Netherlands), Legrand 
S.A. (France), Acuity Brands, Inc. (US), Eaton Corporation (Ireland), General Electric Company (US), and OSRAM 
Licht (Germany), Lutron Electronics (US), Zumtobel Group (Austria), Honeywell International Inc. (US), Hubbell 
Incorporated (US), and Leviton Manufacturing Company, Inc. (US). Other players operating in the smart lighting 
market include Dialight PLC (UK), Helvar (Finland), Ideal Industries, Inc. (Cree Lighting) (US), Adesto Technologies 
(Echelon Corporation) (US), Panasonic (Japan), LightwaveRF PLC (UK), RAB Lighting (US), Synapse Wireless (US), 
Syska LED (India), Wipro Enterprise Ltd (India), LG Electronics (South Korea), ABB (Switzerland), and Enlighted 
Inc (a Siemens company) (US). [MAM-19] 

65 

 
 
 
 
The market leaders for smart street lighting are Telensa (19% share), Silver Spring Networks, Signify/Philips, 
and Echelon. [NEG-17] Navigant [NAV-18] ranked the principal companies in the sector according to their go-
to-market strategy and execution of this strategy. As it can be seen in Figure 58, Signify can be seen as leader 
in  the  domain,  because  its  background  as  a  lighting  company  that  offers  end-to-end  systems  gives  it  an 
advantage over most of its competitors. 

Figure 58: Ranking of companies with stake in smart street lighting segment. Green area corresponds to “Leaders”, 
orange to “Co-tenders” and the remain are the “Challengers”. Data from [NAV-18] 

Further, Signify was ranked first in the smart lighting market in 2019 in market shares. The company has a 
huge advantage over its competitors in the smart lighting market due to is its extensive product portfolio, with 
lighting systems compatible with various connecting technologies ranging from DALI, KNX, and BACnet to ZigBee 
and  EnOcean.  For  instance,  in  October  2019,  Signify  acquired  Cooper  Lighting  Solutions  from  Eaton.  This 
acquisition would strengthen its position in the North American lighting market. Also, in April 2019, it acquired 
WiZ Connected—a developer of the WiZ Wi-Fi-based connected lighting ecosystem. This acquisition will allow 
Signify to extend its leadership position in the Wi-Fi-based smart lighting market. [MAM-19] 

Legrand S.A. (France) was ranked second in the smart lighting market in 2019. Legrand S.A. is a global specialist 
in electrical and digital building infrastructures. The company has a strong product portfolio pertaining to the 
smart lighting market. This enables the company to maintain its leading position in this market. Legrand focuses 
on growth strategies such as acquisitions, partnerships and product launches. For instance, in May 2019, the 
company launched wireless DLM systems, which are designed for easy installation, which, in turn, saves cost 
and time and thereby benefits engineers, electrical contractors, and facility managers needing reliable, code-
compliant lighting controls. Moreover, in December 2018, the company acquired Kenall, a leading manufacturer 
of innovative, energy-efficient, and sustainable specification-grade lighting and control solutions. The company 
also focuses on geographic expansion to increase its footprint. For instance, in December 2018, the company 
acquired  Trical  (New  Zealand),  which  provides  switchboards  for  residential  and  commercial  buildings.  This 
acquisition would strengthen its position in New Zealand. [MAM-19] 

The key market players in the global HCL market are Acuity Brands, Inc., OSRAM GmbH, Hubbell Incorporated, 
Legrand, Philips Lighting, Glamox, Digital Lumens, Inc., Zumtobel Group AG, Seoul Semiconductors, Cree, Inc., 
Waldmann Lighting, Lutron Electronics Co., Inc., and Hevlar, among others. 

66 

 
 
 
 
 
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5  List of abbreviations and definitions 
AC: Alternative Current (50 or 60 Hz) 
ADEME: Agence de la transition écologique (France) 
AFE: Association Française de l’Éclairage (France) 
AIST: Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan) 
APAC: Asia Pacific region 
ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations 
ASSIL: Associazione Nazionale Produttori Illuminazione (IT) 
AICEP: Agência Investimento Comércio Externo de Portugal 
BAT: Best Available Technology 
BAU: Business-as-usual 
CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate  
CBS: Central Bureau of Statistics (Nepal) 
CCT: Correlated Colour Temperature 
CFL: Compact Fluorescent Lamp 
CHMSL: Centre High Mounted Signal Light 
CLI: Connected Lighting System 
CMS: Central Management System 
cmw-LED: Colour Mixing White LEDs 
COB: Chip-on-Board 
CRI: Colour Rendering Index 
CSA: Chinese Solid-State Alliance’s (China) 
CISL: Center of Industrial Studies in Lighting 
CY: Current Year financials 
DALI: Digital Addressable Lighting Interface 
DC: Direct Current 
DIY: Do It Yourself stores 
DOE: Department of Energy (USA) 
DSM: Demand Side Management 
EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and 
Amortization 
EEL: Energy Efficient Lighting 
EERE:  Office  of  Energy  Efficiency  &  Renewable  Energy 
(USA) 
EU: European Union 
FW-OLED: Flexible White OLED 
FY: Fiscal Year 
GE: General Electric 
GCC: Gulf Cooperation Council (Middle East) 
HCL: Human-Centric Lighting 
HID: High Intensity Discharge lamp 
IEA: International Energy Agency 
IFC: International Finance Corporation 
IoT: Internet of Things 
IT: Information Technology 
JRC: Join Research Centre (European Commission) 
KM: Konica Minolta (Japan) 
KMPO: Konica Minolta Pioneer OLED (Japan) 
LaaS: Lighting as a service 
LAE: Lighting Application Efficiency 
LARP: Laser Activated Remote Phosphor system 

LCD: Liquid Crystal Display 
LD: Laser Diode powered light source 
LED: Light Emitting Diode 
LFT: Linear Fluorescent Tube  
LIA: Lighting Industry Association 
LiFI: Light Fidelity 
LGD: LG-Display (S. Korea) 
LSL: Lighting System Legislation 
µ-LED: micro-LEDs 
ME: Middle East world region 
MEA: Middle East and Africa world region 
MELA: Middle East Lighting Association 
MENA: Middle East and North Africa region 
MEPS: Minimum Energy Performance Standards  
MLA: Micro-lens arrays 
NEA: Nepal Electricity Authority 
NSRP: National Shipbuilding Research Program (US) 
OEM: Original Equipment Manufacturer 
OLED: Organic Light Emitting Diode 
Osram OS: Osram Opto-Semiconductors (Germany) 
PAYGO: Pay-As-You-Go business models 
pcw-LED: Phosphor Converted white LEDS 
PHOLED: Phosphorescent OLEDs 
QD: Quantum Dots 
QLED: Quantum Dot LED 
R2R: Roll-to-roll technique 
R&D: Research & Development 
RF: Russian Federation 
ROI: Return on Investment 
ROW: Rest of the World 
SDS: Sustainable Development Scenario 
SMD: Surface-Mount Devices  
SSL: Solid State Lighting 
TRAMEL:  Transforming  the  Market  for  Efficient  Lighting 
(Russian Federation - UNDP/GEF EEL joint program) 
UAE: United Arab Emirates 
UJALA: Affordable LEDs for All programme (India) 
UK: United Kingdom 
UDC: Universal Display Corporation (USA) 
UNEP: United Nations Environment Programme 
US/USA: United States of America 
UV: Ultraviolet 
VLC: Visual Light Communications 
W-LAD: White-light Large Area Diffuse emitters 
W-LED: White-light Emitting Diodes 
W-LS: White-light Laser Systems emitters 
W-OLED: White OLEDs 
WPE: Wall Plug Efficiency 
YoY: Year-on-Year 

5.1  Currency conversion rates (as in August 2020) 

1 US$ = 0,84 € 
1 000 JP¥ = 7,95 € 
1 000 KRW = 0,71 € 
1 RMB = 0,12 € 
1 RUB = 0,011 € 
1 TKL = 0,11 € 

73 

 
 
 
List of figures  
Figure 1: A rapid summary of global lighting impact today (the equivalent CO2 emissions per capita are from 
[WBG-14]) ........................................................................................................................................................................ 3

Figure 2: Variation of electricity Savings/Losses for lighting till 2030 following different scenarios. The “Base” 
line is calculated extrapolating observed consumption values, the reference year is set to 2017; BAU (Business 
as usual) scenario admits massive replacement of legacy light sources by LEDs; MEPS scenario suppose the 
adoption of Minimum Energy Performance Standards worldwide; BAT scenario supposes the use of the Best 
Available Technology in the market. Data from [SCO-17] modified by G. Zissis ...................................................... 4

Figure 3: Greenhouse emission savings thanks to LED lighting reattributed to packaged-LED manufacturers. 
Data from [HIS-17] ......................................................................................................................................................... 4

Figure 4: Results of rebound effect on the average US-household annual electricity use for lighting. Original 
data from [HIC-15] modified by G. Zissis ..................................................................................................................... 5

Figure 5: The evolution of modern lighting systems responds to society and consumers needs [ZIS-20] .......... 6

Figure 6: (a) Best performing LED announcements for Luminous Efficacy; (b) Luminous flux par package; (c) 
cost per emitted lumen by the package. ................................................................................................................... 10

Figure 7: (a) Maximum theoretical efficacy for W-LEDs as function of (a) Correlated Colour Temperature and 
(b) Colour rendering index. Data from [DOE-17] ....................................................................................................... 10

Figure 8: Luminous efficacy evolution projections and DOE Goal. Drive current density (35 A/cm2) and junction 
temperature 25°C and 3 000 K CCT. Data from [DOE-17] ...................................................................................... 11

Figure 9: Cause of energy losses inside pcw-LED technologies. Data from [DOE-20] ........................................ 11

Figure 10: Pathway to the cost reduction for pcw-LED components forecasted by DOE. Data from [DOE-20]
 ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 12

Figure 11: Projections for LE evolution of cmw-LED vs pcw-LEDs. The dot-points represent measured LE for 
cmw-LEDs.  Drive current density (35 A/cm2) and junction temperature 25°C and 3 000 K CCT. Data from [DOE-
20] ................................................................................................................................................................................. 13

Figure 12: Projection for the evolution of Les for pcw-LEDs (cool and warm white), Hy-LEDs and cmw-LEDs 
and goals fixed by DOE by 2050. Drive current density (35 A/cm2) and junction temperature 25°C. Data from 
[DOE-17], [DOE-20] ...................................................................................................................................................... 13

Figure  13:  LE  efficacy  evolution  observed  using  international  databases.(a)  non-directional  LED  lamps  (A-
shape); (b) directional LED-lamps (spots); (c) Linear LED tubes; (d) Indoor linear and troffer LED luminaires; (e) 
Low- and High-bay luminaires; (f) Street lighting LED-luminaires. Courtesy of IEA 4E-SSL annex. ................... 16

Figure 14: Average WPE value in 2019 for 3 types of LED lighting devices and DOE targets for 2035. Data 
from [DOE-20] .............................................................................................................................................................. 17

Figure 15: Average WPE of LED luminaire (any type) evolution and DOE target by 2035.  Data from [DOE-17]
 ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 17

Figure 16: Record luminous efficacies announced since the demonstration of the 1st White OLED (Eastman-
Kodak, 1987). The green dots correspond to lighting panels and lamps (commercially available). ................... 19

Figure  17:  US-DOE  roadmap  towards  OLED  enhancement  in  order  to  hope  lighting  market  penetration  (a) 
luminous efficacy for devices (blue) and luminaire WPE (orange); (b) Device lifespan L70B50. Data from [DOE-
20] ................................................................................................................................................................................. 19

Figure 18: DOE target for light extraction from the OLED devices. Data from [DOE-20] .................................. 21

Figure 19: White light obtained by exciting remote phosphor by blue light from laser Diode (40 lm/W; 4000 K; CRI: 
94). Photo Credits: LAPLACE Laboratory [LDR-14] ...................................................................................................... 22

Figure 20: Comparison of luminous of LDs vs. LEDs as function of forward current. Original data from [TRI-17]
 ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 22

74 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 21: Spectrum obtained from an experimental high CRI LARP in LAPLACE laboratory [CZE-18b] .......... 23

Figure 22: It is possible to reduce the blue light component by shaping the phosphor [CAT-20] (Credits: LAPLACE 
Laboratory) ................................................................................................................................................................... 23

Figure 23: Supercontinuum laser emission coveting the full visible spectrum from propagation of IR laser pulse 
(λex=1,604 µm) in a fibre (original data are public domain from Creative Commons) ......................................... 24

Figure 24: Energy savings linked to the system intelligence degree. 2015 is the basis for the comparison and 
the forecasted savings for 2035 are calculated following the current market path as well as the target values 
following DOE. Data from [NAV-17] ........................................................................................................................... 25

Figure 25: LED penetration rate, by sales, in rapidly increasing. Based on IEA data from the [IEA-19]. (All rights 
reserved; as modified by G. Zissis) ............................................................................................................................. 28

Figure 26: LED penetration rate projected by Statista (data from [IEA-19] and [STA-12]) ................................ 28

Figure 27: Global LED Lighting market forecasts by various analysts. Data origins are marked on the plot, data 
with red dots are data projections from [STA-19] .................................................................................................... 30

Figure 28: Number of automotive headlamps per technology (data from [LEX-18]) ......................................... 31

Figure 29: Evolution of market size for various sectors in automotive lighting between 2016 and 2022. Data 
from [YOL-17] .............................................................................................................................................................. 32

Figure 30: Automotive lighting industrial ecosystem in 2017. Data from [YOL-17] ........................................... 32

Figure 31: Horticultural lighting market for greenhouse applications (blue area) and surplus revenue linked to 
vertical farming (red dotted line). Data from [YOL-18] ............................................................................................ 34

Figure 32: Evolution of Italian lamp and fixture revenue interior market revenue data from [STA-20h]  ........ 38

Figure 33: German Market size evolution by end-use sector; original data from [GMI-19b] ............................. 38

Figure 34: Market shares of LED technology in Spanish lighting market. Data from [ANF-16] ......................... 39

Figure 35: (a) Shares of different technologies used for domestic lighting in 2018. (b) Evolution of the electricity 
use for lighting in the Domestic sector (orange) and share of LEDs in that consumption (blue). Data from [BEI-
19] ................................................................................................................................................................................. 40

Figure 36: Shows LED-technology penetration in various USA market segments as the projected by DOE (data 
from DOE-20]) .............................................................................................................................................................. 41

Figure 37: (a) Relative errors between 2019 and 2020 forecasts and their propagation till 2035. (b) Estimation 
error in the expected cumulative energy savings by 2035 using different market penetration forecast models 
(data from [DOE-20]) ................................................................................................................................................... 42

Figure 38: Estimation of LED lamp and Luminaire market size in USA [GVR-19] ............................................... 42

Figure  39:  Situation  of  lighting  fixtures  market  in  2018-19.  Green  points  correspond  to  progression,  red  t 
regression and blue to stable YoY rate. Data from [CSI-20] ................................................................................... 44

Figure 40: Shipment value of the LED lighting fixture market in Japan from 2010 to 2018. Data from [STA-
20c]................................................................................................................................................................................ 47

Figure  41:  Share  of  annual  electricity  use  for  lighting  of  each  ASEAN  country  member  in  the  global  area 
consumption. Data from [IIE-16] ................................................................................................................................ 49

Figure  42:  Fixture’s  market  situation  in  main  ASEAN  countries  (2018).  (a)  Production  and  interior  market 
consumption shares; (b) International trade (Import & export). Data from [CSI-18] ............................................ 50

Figure  43:  Evolution  of  penetration  rate  of  different  lighting  technologies  in  Russian  federation  during  the 
execution of TRAMEL project (data from [TRA-17]) .................................................................................................. 52

Figure 44: CREE’s revenue and gross profits for the LED and Lighting product segments (data from [CRE-18], 
[CRE-19]) ....................................................................................................................................................................... 54

Figure 45: CREE’s R&D budget evolution (data from [CRE-19]) ............................................................................ 54

75 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure 46: 2018 and 2019 Signify’s (a) Business Groups and (b) world-regional market distribution. Inner ring 
is 2018 and outer ring 2019. Data from [SIG-19] and [SIG-19] ............................................................................. 55

Figure 47: Osram’s shares in the packaged LED market (data from [KAM-18] .................................................. 56

Figure 48: R&D budget evolution in Zumtobel group (data from [VAM-16]) ....................................................... 56

Figure 49: (a) DOE’s target price for OLED panels in US$/klm. Data from [DOE-20].......................................... 57

Figure 50: Split of major cost inuring in OLED panel manufacturing. Data from [DOE-20] ............................... 58

Figure 51: Correlation between total unyielded manufacturing costs and production capacity. Data from [DOE-
20] ................................................................................................................................................................................. 58

Figure 52: Geographical distribution of the main industrial actors in the OLED Lighting ecosystem ............... 59

Figure 53: Smart Street Pole Construction Cost Analysis. The lighting module (orange boxes) counts for 2,6% 
only. Data from [LDI-20] ............................................................................................................................................. 63

Figure 54: Smart lighting market size evolution till 2025 per world region. Data from [MAM-19] ................... 63

Figure 55: Japanese Smart lighting market size, by major sectors, in 2019 and 2025 forecast. Data from [GMI-
19] ................................................................................................................................................................................. 64

Figure 56: Penetration of smart light bulbs in residential sector across the world in 2020. Data aggregated 
from [STA-19c] ............................................................................................................................................................. 64

Figure 57: Expenditures per “smart household” in the segment of Comfort and Lighting across the world in 
2020. Data aggregated from [STA-19c] .................................................................................................................... 65

Figure  58:  Ranking  of  companies  with  stake  in  smart  street  lighting  segment.  Green  area  corresponds  to 
“Leaders”, orange to “Co-tenders” and the remain are the “Challengers”. Data from [NAV-18].......................... 66

76 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
List of tables 
Table 1: Potential advances in R&D at component/device level, the objective’s number refers to the list given 
in the previous paragraph. ............................................................................................................................................. 8

Table  2:  Potential  advances  in  R&D  at  system  level,  the  objective’s  number  refers  to  the  list  given  in  the 
previous paragraph ......................................................................................................................................................... 9

Table 3: Luminous efficacy data collected by IEA 4E-SSL Annex to track the evolution during the last decade.
 ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 15

Table 4: What are the advantages of OLED technology for lighting that can drive the market ........................ 18

Table  5:  (a)  Characteristics  of  OLEDWorks  LumiCurve  Wave  bendable  panel.  Data  from  [OLW-20];  (b) 
Comparison between a rigid and a bendable OLED panels data from [DOE-20] .................................................. 20

Table 6: Professional vs Consumer illumination markets ...................................................................................... 29

Table 7: Situation some EU countries ....................................................................................................................... 36

Table 8: Some examples from various country’s markets in Latin America Area ............................................... 43

Table 9: Shares of various light sources technologies evolution in Middle East region (data from [TSR-18]) . 44

Table 10: Situation some MEA region countries ...................................................................................................... 45

Table 11: Some examples from country markets in APAC area ............................................................................ 47

Table 12: Ranking of the top 10 packaged LED manufacturers............................................................................ 53

Table 13: Rapid summary of the main’s industrial actors in OLED Lighting arena ............................................. 59

77 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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