COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy – putting European transport on track for the future
Date: 2020-12-09
Institutions: Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, European Commission
Subjects: action programme, common transport policy, environmental impact, mode of transport, motor vehicle pollution, organisation of transport, pollution from ships, reduction of gas emissions, sustainable mobility, transport infrastructure

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 9.12.2020  SWD(2020) 331 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy – putting European transport on track for the future {COM(2020) 789 final}  
 
 
Contents 

1 

2 

Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 5 

European mobility and transport – where are we heading? .............................................................. 9 

2.1 

2.2 

Identifying the greenhouse gas emissions gap for transport ................................................. 9 

Developments under current policies .................................................................................... 10 

2.3 

Overall economic, social and technological trends ............................................................... 17 
2.3.1  Economic context ................................................................................................................. 17 
2.3.2  Demographic trends .............................................................................................................. 23 
2.3.3  New technologies, changing consumer behaviour and working conditions ......................... 26 

2.4 

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the transport sector ............................................... 31 
2.4.1  Air transport .......................................................................................................................... 32 
2.4.2  Waterborne transport ............................................................................................................ 33 
2.4.3  Road transport ...................................................................................................................... 35 
2.4.4  Rail transport ........................................................................................................................ 36 
2.4.5  Urban transport ..................................................................................................................... 37 

3 

Key policy developments over the last decade .................................................................................. 39 

3.1 

3.2 

3.3 

3.4 

3.5 

3.6 

Sustainability ........................................................................................................................... 39 

Digitalisation ............................................................................................................................ 46 

Single Market .......................................................................................................................... 51 

Safety & security ..................................................................................................................... 56 

Social issues ............................................................................................................................. 60 

Enforcement of the EU transport acquis .............................................................................. 66 

4 

Challenges to sustainable, smart and resilient mobility .................................................................. 70 

4.1 

The sustainability challenge ................................................................................................... 70 
4.1.1  Zero- and low-emission vehicles and renewable and low carbon transport fuels ................. 81 
Fuel supply ................................................................................................................... 88 
4.1.1.1 
4.1.1.2 
Fuel infrastructure ........................................................................................................ 90 
4.1.1.3  Other incentives ........................................................................................................... 91 
Pollutant standards, batteries and roadworthiness........................................................ 92 
4.1.1.4 
4.1.2  Clean ports and airports ........................................................................................................ 95 
4.1.2.1 
Ports ............................................................................................................................. 95 
4.1.2.2  Airports ...................................................................................................................... 100 
4.1.3  Sustainable urban mobility ................................................................................................. 105 
4.1.3.1  Urban vehicle access regulations ............................................................................... 109 
4.1.3.2  Walking, cycling and micromobility ......................................................................... 110 
4.1.3.3 
Public transport, shared mobility and transport on demand ....................................... 115 
4.1.3.4  Urban logistics ........................................................................................................... 117 
4.1.4  Multimodality and modal shift ........................................................................................... 118 
Improving multimodal freight operations .................................................................. 124 
Rail freight ................................................................................................................. 127 
Inland waterways ....................................................................................................... 130 
Short sea shipping ...................................................................................................... 131 
4.1.5  Better incentives to users .................................................................................................... 131 
Pricing and internalisation of external costs .............................................................. 131 
Better information to users......................................................................................... 140 

4.1.4.1 
4.1.4.2 
4.1.4.3 
4.1.4.4 

4.1.5.1 
4.1.5.2 

4.2 

The challenge of digitalisation and modernisation ............................................................. 144 
4.2.1  Smart multimodal transport – challenges for seamless experience .................................... 144 
Cross-border multimodal challenges ......................................................................... 145 

4.2.1.1 

 
 
 
4.2.2 

4.2.2.1 
4.2.2.2 

4.2.1.2  Multimodal & collaborative economy challenges in urban context ........................... 147 
Intelligent Transport Systems and connected, automated mobility .................................... 150 
ITS challenges in road transport ................................................................................ 150 
ITS challenges in other modes of transport................................................................ 152 
4.2.3 
Innovation and mobility of the future ................................................................................. 157 
4.2.4  Digital enablers ................................................................................................................... 159 
4.2.4.1  Data for smart transport and mobility ........................................................................ 160 
4.2.4.2  Artificial Intelligence, 5G and other key enabling technologies ................................ 164 

4.3 

4.3.2 

The challenge of making the transport sector more resilient ............................................ 166 
4.3.1  Crisis resilience and management ...................................................................................... 167 
4.3.1.1  Governance ................................................................................................................ 172 
Infrastructure and investment ............................................................................................. 174 
Capacity across modes ............................................................................................... 177 
4.3.2.1 
Future-proof infrastructure......................................................................................... 181 
4.3.2.2 
4.3.2.3  Access to funding....................................................................................................... 184 
4.3.3  Single Market ..................................................................................................................... 187 
Single Market for road transport ................................................................................ 187 
4.3.3.1 
Single European Railway Area .................................................................................. 188 
4.3.3.2 
4.3.3.3  Aviation Single Market .............................................................................................. 191 
4.3.3.4  Waterborne Single Market ......................................................................................... 195 
4.3.4  Social aspects ...................................................................................................................... 197 
4.3.4.1  Workers’ rights and transition to automation and sustainability ................................ 197 
4.3.4.2 
Skills and attractiveness of transport jobs .................................................................. 203 
4.3.4.3  Access to transport: affordability, availability and accessibility ................................ 205 
Protection of European passengers and consumers.................................................... 211 
4.3.4.4 
4.3.5  Safety and security.............................................................................................................. 216 
Ever evolving challenges ........................................................................................... 220 
4.3.5.1 
4.3.5.2 
Safe and secure infrastructure .................................................................................... 224 
4.3.5.3  Vehicle safety ............................................................................................................ 225 
The human factor ....................................................................................................... 226 
4.3.5.4 
Ensuring a high and equal level of safety and security across modes ........................ 228 
4.3.5.5 

4.4 

External dimension ............................................................................................................... 233 
4.4.1  EU leadership ..................................................................................................................... 234 
4.4.2  EU global competitiveness ................................................................................................. 235 
4.4.3  External connectivity .......................................................................................................... 237 

5 

Description of the pathways/scenarios ........................................................................................... 241 

5.1 

Scenario design ...................................................................................................................... 241 

5.2 

Analysis of impacts of the pathways/scenarios ................................................................... 246 
5.2.1 
Impacts on transport activity .............................................................................................. 246 
5.2.2  Technology development projections by transport mode ................................................... 248 
Road transport ............................................................................................................ 248 
5.2.2.1 
5.2.2.2 
Rail ............................................................................................................................. 251 
5.2.2.3  Aviation ..................................................................................................................... 252 
Inland waterways and national maritime ................................................................... 253 
5.2.2.4 
International maritime transport ................................................................................ 254 
5.2.2.5 
5.2.3  Energy demand and fuel mix projections ........................................................................... 255 
5.2.4  GHG emissions from transport ........................................................................................... 257 
Impacts on noise, NOx and particulate matter emissions ................................................... 260 
5.2.5 
Impacts on external costs of transport ................................................................................ 261 
5.2.6 
5.2.7 
Investments ......................................................................................................................... 262 
5.2.8  Social impacts ..................................................................................................................... 264 
5.2.9  Sensitivity analysis on the COVID-19 pandemic ............................................................... 266 

6 

Annex I - Analytical methods ......................................................................................................... 268 
6.1.1  Description of the modelling tools used ............................................................................. 268 

2 

 
6.1.1.1  Main modelling suite ................................................................................................. 268 
6.1.2  Assumptions on technology, economics and energy prices ................................................ 277 
Economic assumptions .............................................................................................. 277 
Energy prices assumptions ......................................................................................... 278 
Technology assumptions ............................................................................................ 280 
6.1.3  Policies in the existing policies scenario (Baseline scenario) ............................................. 280 
6.1.4  Policy scenarios .................................................................................................................. 284 

6.1.2.1 
6.1.2.2 
6.1.2.3 

List of figures 

Figure 1: The EU’s pathway to sustained economic prosperity and climate neutrality, 1990-2050 ............ 7 
Figure 2: Passenger and freight transport activity in the Baseline scenario (average growth rate per year)
 .................................................................................................................................................................... 11 
Figure 3: Projected evolution of international maritime transport activity in the Baseline scenario .......... 13 
Figure  4:  Projected  evolution  of  energy  consumption  per  transport  mode  in  2030  and  2050  relative  to 
2015 (% change) in the Baseline scenario .................................................................................................. 13 
Figure 5: Share of alternative fuels used in transport (including international aviation and maritime) in the 
Baseline scenario ........................................................................................................................................ 14 
Figure 6: Fuels use in transport (including international aviation and maritime) in the Baseline scenario 15 
Figure  7:  CO2  emissions  from  transport  (including  international  aviation  but  excluding  international 
maritime) in the Baseline scenario ............................................................................................................. 16 
Figure  8:  Passenger  transport  activity  in  the  Baseline  and  the  COVID-Baseline  scenarios  (cumulative 
growth rates for 2015-2030 and 2015-2050) .............................................................................................. 19 
Figure  9:  Freight  transport  activity  in  the  Baseline  and  COVID-Baseline  scenarios  (cumulative  growth 
rates for 2015-2030 and 2015-2050) .......................................................................................................... 20 
Figure  10:  CO2  emissions  from  transport  (including  international  aviation  but  excluding  international 
maritime) in the Baseline and COVID-Baseline scenarios ........................................................................ 21 
Figure 11: Workforce working at home several times per month in 2015 ................................................. 28 
Figure 12: Market share of all but the principal railway undertakings in 2016 .......................................... 52 
Figure  13:  The  use  of  EU  Pilot  concerning  mobility  and  transport  infringements  between  2015-August 
2020 ............................................................................................................................................................ 68 
Figure 14: Evolution of transport activity in tonne- and passenger-kilometres in the EU .......................... 70 
Figure 15: Share by mode in total transport GHG emissions, including international bunkers, in the EU-
27 in 2018 ................................................................................................................................................... 73 
Figure 16: Evolution of GHG emissions by transport mode in the EU-27 (1990 = 1) ............................... 74 
Figure 17: Evolution of final energy consumption by sector in the EU (million tonnes of oil equivalent) 82 
Figure 18: Transport sector consumption of petroleum products & biofuels, 2000-18 .............................. 82 
Figure 19: Number of BEV and PHEV passenger cars in 2020 ................................................................. 83 
Figure 20: Number of inland vessels per year of construction in the Belgian and German fleet ............... 87 
Figure 21: Number of inland vessels per year of construction in the Danube countries ............................ 87 
Figure 22: Situation of the publicly accessible recharging points in 2018 across EU ................................ 91 
Figure 23 Cruise ships docking in Barcelona emit 5 times more sulphur than the city’s 560,000 cars every 
year ............................................................................................................................................................. 96 
Figure 24 CO2 emissions per flight phases ............................................................................................... 103 
Figure 25 ATM inefficiencies .................................................................................................................. 104 
Figure 26: Annual mean NO2 concentrations observed at traffic stations, 2017 ...................................... 107 
Figure 27: Percentile 90.4 of daily mean PM10 concentrations observed at traffic stations, 2017 .......... 108 
Figure 28: Annual mean PM2.5 concentrations observed at traffic stations, 2017 .................................. 108 
Figure 29: Main mode of transport on a typical day................................................................................. 113 
Figure 30: Percentage of road fatalities on urban roads in the EU by transport mode, 2018 ................... 115 
Figure 31: Passenger land transport modal split by country (%, 2018) and change in percentage points for 
rail (2015-2018) ........................................................................................................................................ 120 
Figure 32: Air routes between metropolitan regions where rail travel times are below 2.5 hours by train
 .................................................................................................................................................................. 121 
Figure 33: Air routes between metropolitan regions where rail travel times are below 4 hours by train . 122 

3 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure 34 Cost level and composition of intermodal transport compared to road-only transport ............ 125 
Figure 35 Intermodal terminals with rail access occurrence in Europe .................................................... 126 
Figure 36 Minimum rates of taxation laid down in the ETD (1 Jan 2010)  .............................................. 134 
Figure 37 Purchase taxes in the EU in 2016 ............................................................................................. 137 
Figure 38: Perceived quality of transport infrastructure in the EU countries ........................................... 176 
Figure 39: Average peak-hour delay per representative driver (hours per year) in 2018 ......................... 178 
Figure 40: Share of different items in household consumption expenditure in the EU ............................ 206 
Figure 41: Conditions to switch to more environmentally friendly modes of transport ........................... 208 
Figure 42: Road fatalities in the EU and current target ............................................................................ 217 
Figure 43: Trend in road deaths per million inhabitants 2010-2019 ........................................................ 218 
Figure 44: Overview of the policy scenarios ............................................................................................ 243 
Figure 45: Passenger transport activity in the Baseline and the policy scenarios (cumulative growth rates 
for 2015-2030 and 2015-2050) ................................................................................................................. 247 
Figure 46: Freight transport activity in the Baseline and the policy scenarios (cumulative growth rates for 
2015-2030 and 2015-2050) ...................................................................................................................... 248 
Figure 47: Shares in the total cars stock by type of drivetrain technology in 2030 and 2050 .................. 249 
Figure 48: Shares in the total vans stock by type of drivetrain technology in 2030 and 2050 ................. 250 
Figure  49:  Shares  in  the  total  heavy  goods  vehicle  stock  by  type  of  drivetrain  technology  in  2030  and 
2050 .......................................................................................................................................................... 250 
Figure 50: Shares in the buses vehicle stock by type of drivetrain technology in 2030 and 2050 ........... 251 
Figure 51: Aviation fuels mix in the Baseline and policy scenarios in 2030 and 2050 ............................ 252 
Figure 52: Inland waterways and national maritime fuels mix in the Baseline and policy scenarios in 2030 
and 2050 ................................................................................................................................................... 253 
Figure 53: International maritime fuels mix in the Baseline and policy scenarios in 2030 and 2050 ...... 254 
Figure 54: Change in total energy use in transport and in the final energy consumption in 2030 and 2050 
compared to 2015 ..................................................................................................................................... 255 
Figure 55: Share of alternative fuels in transport (including international aviation and maritime) in 2030
 .................................................................................................................................................................. 256 
Figure 56: Share of renewable energy in transport in 2030 ...................................................................... 257 
Figure 57: Transport fuel mix (including international aviation and maritime) ....................................... 257 
Figure 58: Tank to wheel CO2 emissions from transport (excluding international maritime) in 2030 in the 
Baseline and policy scenarios ................................................................................................................... 258 
Figure 59: Well to  wheel CO2 emissions  from transport (excluding international  maritime) in 2030 and 
2050 in the Baseline and policy scenarios ................................................................................................ 260 
Figure 60: Change in NOx emissions and PM2.5 emissions in 2030 and 2050 compared to 2015 ......... 261 
Figure 61: Change in external costs of air pollution in 2030 and 2050 compared to 2015 ...................... 261 
Figure 62: Change in external costs of congestion and accidents in 2030 and 2050 compared to 2015 .. 262 
Figure 63: Average annual investments in vehicles, rolling stock, vessels, airplanes and alternative fuels 
infrastructure deployment in the Baseline and policy scenarios ............................................................... 263 
Figure 64: Additional annual average  investments for 2021-2030 under existing policies  and to achieve 
higher GHG emissions reductions - in billions euros (2015) ................................................................... 264 
Figure  65:  Households’  annual  transport  related  expenditures  in  the  Baseline  and  policy  scenarios  -  in 
billions euros (2015) ................................................................................................................................. 265 
Figure 66: Impacts of at least 55% GHG emissions reduction on transport sector employment (% change 
relative to the Baseline scenario) .............................................................................................................. 265 
Figure 67: Comparison of key indicators in the MIX scenario and COVID-MIX variant ....................... 266 
Figure 68: Interlinkages between models ................................................................................................. 269 
Figure 69: Schematic representation of the PRIMES model .................................................................... 270 
Figure 70: Schematic representation of the GEM-E3 model .................................................................... 276 
Figure 71: Projected EU GDP (2015 = 100) ............................................................................................ 278 
Figure 72: International fuel prices assumptions – non-COVID scenarios .............................................. 279 
Figure 73: Oil price projections in 2030 according to various sources .................................................... 279 
Figure 74: International fuel prices assumptions – COVID scenarios...................................................... 280 
Figure 75: Scenario assumptions description (scenarios developed with the PRIMES-GAINS-GLOBIOM 
modelling suite) ........................................................................................................................................ 285 
Figure 83: Key modelling variables reflecting underlying policy assumptions ....................................... 288 

4 

 
 
 
1 

INTRODUCTION 

1.  This  Staff  Working  Document  accompanies  the  Communication  from  the 
Commission  on  the  Sustainable  and  Smart  Mobility  Strategy,  which  sets  out  the 
actions  needed  to  ensure  that  every  transport  mode  plays  a  role  in  delivering  the 
European  Green  Deal,  that  smart  mobility  enables  seamless,  safe  and  efficient 
connectivity,  and  that  a  more  resilient  Single  European  Transport  Area  provides 
connectivity for all EU citizens.  

2.  Sustainable,  smart  and  resilient  transport  services  and  infrastructure  are  vital  to 
make full use of the economic strengths of all regions of the European Union, to 
support  the  Single  Market,  recover  from  the  current  crisis  and  stimulate  future 
growth,  and  to  enable  economic,  social  and  territorial  cohesion,  while  preserving 
our  environment  and  our  health.  They  also  underpin  our  global  competitiveness, 
and  our  international  connectivity.  The  EU  transport  system  provides  safe  and 
secure  mobility  for  Europeans.  The  transport  sector  in  the  EU-27  employs  more 
than  10  million  workers  and  comprises  around  1.1  million  enterprises,  providing 
services to people and businesses within the EU and globally1.  

3.  Mobility  is  a  critical  aspect  of  social  inclusion  and  an  important  determinant  of 
human  well-being,  especially  for  disadvantaged  groups.  Transport,  recognised  as 
an essential service in the European Pillar of Social Rights fulfils a basic need in 
enabling  citizens  to  integrate  into  society  and  the  labour  market,  but  also 
constitutes a significant part of household expenditure. Enhanced connectivity and 
market  opening  has  contributed  to  linking  transport  networks,  bringing  the  EU 
together and making it more tangible and accessible for travellers.  More needs to 
be done however.  

4.  Addressing  the  climate  and  environmental  crisis  is  the  defining  challenge  of  our 
time and it is an opportunity to relaunch our economies in a sustainable manner. It 
requires  urgent  and  sustained  action  by  all  actors  in  our  society  to  preserve  the 
health,  prosperity,  and  well-being  of  people  in  Europe  and  all  over  the  world. 
Responding  to  this  challenge,  the  European  Green  Deal2  has  set  a  high  level  of 
ambition for climate neutrality by 2050. It is also Europe’s growth strategy, which 
aims  to  transform  the  EU  into  a  fair  and  prosperous  society  with  a  resource-
efficient  and  competitive  economy.  The  economic  response  to  the  COVID-19 
pandemic offers a unique opportunity to accelerate the green transition. 

5.  Transport  is  the  only  economic  sector  in  which  greenhouse  gas  emissions  are 
higher  than  in  1990  and  have  started  growing  again  since  2013  despite  the 
mitigation efforts undertaken. This is why the European Green Deal has set the key 
objective to deliver a 90% reduction in transport-related greenhouse gas emissions 
by  2050.  It  also  stresses  that  transport  is  a  significant  contributor  to  air  pollution 
and noise, and has adverse effects on our lands, oceans, rivers and lakes, hence the 
need to accelerate the shift to sustainable and smart mobility, and delivering zero 
pollution and a toxic-free environment.  

1  1.For  statistical  information,  unless  otherwise  indicated  (e.g.  EU-27  is  mentioned),  EU  data  relating  to  the  period  before  the 
withdrawal of the UK from the Union (i.e. 31 January 2020) includes the UK. 
2. For projections (going beyond 2019) reproduced in the document: Unless otherwise indicated (e.g. EU-27 is mentioned), all EU 
data also includes the UK, although the UK withdrew from the Union on 31 January 2020. 
2 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council, the European Economic 
and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions ‘The European Green Deal’, COM(2019) 640 final. 

5 

 
                                                      
6. 

In  the  2030  Climate  Target  Plan3,  on  the  basis  of  the  analysis  carried  out  in  its 
Impact  Assessment,  the  Commission  concluded  that  achieving  55%  greenhouse 
gas emissions reductions by 2030 is fully achievable, and would not only put the 
EU firmly on track to achieve climate neutrality, but would also make EU business 
and industry global trailblazers. Achieving at least 55% greenhouse gas emissions 
reductions by 2030 would also improve the wellbeing of EU citizens by delivering 
significant  co-benefits  for  example  in  terms  of  health,  improved  air  quality  and 
reduced  environmental  degradation,  and  it  would  strongly  support  the  recovery 
from the COVID-19 pandemic and the longer-term competitiveness and resilience 
of the European economy. The European Green Deal is Europe’s growth strategy 
and to ensure we use it to its full potential, it is essential that Next Generation EU 
drives our competitive sustainability. 

7.  The  impact  assessment  accompanying  the  2030  Climate  Target  Plan4  has  also 
shown  that  if  we  only  continue  with  existing  policies,  the  transport  sector  would 
fall short in delivering the contribution needed to achieve the economy-wide target 
of at least 55% greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2030 and climate neutrality 
by 2050. Additional policies will thus be needed to close the gap. To achieve this, a 
three-pronged set of actions must be taken to make each and every transport mode 
more sustainable, make sustainable alternatives widely available, and put in place 
the right incentives. 

3 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee 
and  the  Committee  of  the  Regions  ‘Stepping  up  Europe’s  2030  climate  ambition  -  Investing  in  a  climate-neutral  future  for  the 
benefit of our people’, COM(2020) 562 final. 
4  Impact  Assessment  accompanying  the  Communication  from  the  Commission  to  the  European  Parliament,  the  Council,  the 
European  Economic  and  Social  Committee  and  the  Committee  of  the  Regions  ‘Stepping  up  Europe’s  2030  climate  ambition  -
Investing in a climate-neutral future for the benefit of our people’, SWD(2020) 176 final. 

6 

 
                                                      
Figure 1: The EU’s pathway to sustained economic prosperity and climate neutrality, 
1990-2050 

Source: COM(2020) 562 final. Commission Communication “Stepping up Europe’s 2030 climate ambition Investing 

in a climate-neutral future for the benefit our people 

8.  Making our mobility and transport smarter and more efficient  can greatly help in 
achieving our health and environmental objectives. Underpinned by the ubiquitous 
presence  of  smartphones,  and  other  digital  technologies  and  solutions,  ranging 
from  European space data and services to innovative business  models,  as well as 
by the emergence of a shared, collaborative economy, smart mobility concepts can 
help  improve  the  use  of  infrastructure  and  resources.  By  integrating  the  different 
transport  modes  and  delivering  multimodality,  they  can  transform  our  travelling 
and transport experience, making it safer, smoother, health supporting and, above 
all, more sustainable. There is a need to offer a seamless multimodal experience to 
all  transport  users  to  support  sustainable  choices,  while  taking  advantage  of 
Intelligent  Transport  Systems  for  safer  and  more  sustainable  mobility.  Research 
and innovation are key to shape the mobility of the future, and the right  enablers 
for successful digital transformation must also be put in place. 

9.  The COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe impact on European mobility and the 
sector.  It  has  shown  the  importance  of  making  our  transport  and  mobility  more 
resilient.  Transport  workers  have  been  on  the  frontline,  ensuring  that  essential 
services  are  maintained.  They  need  quality  jobs  in  order  to  be  able  to  provide  a 
safe,  reliable  and  affordable  service  for  customers.  In  addition,  despite  some 
progress,  regulatory,  administrative  and  technical  barriers  and  burdens  persist  in 
transport  in  the  majority  of  Member  States,  causing  inefficiencies  and  additional 
costs  to  users  and  the  fragmentation  of  the  Single  Market.  There  are  still  major 
gaps  and  missing  links  in  our  infrastructure.  At  the  same  time,  it  is  necessary  to 
modernise fleets in all modes to make them more sustainable.  

10.  Unless  EU  policy  initiatives  towards  a  Single  European  Transport  Area  are 
thoroughly  implemented  at  national  level,  the  fragmentation  of  the  transport 

7 

 
 
market will inevitably limit the future quality of transport services in the EU, as the 
sector  will  miss  out  on  the  economies  of  scale  and  leave  growth  opportunities 
untapped.  Moreover,  lack  of  enforcement  of  social  rules,  together  with  divergent 
national practices have led to social issues, which may in turn worsen the quality of 
transport  services,  create  distortion  in  the  market  and  lead  to  an  uneven  playing 
field. Market opening, fair social conditions and quality jobs are thus intrinsically 
linked.  

11.  While safety and security of transport in the EU has greatly progressed, and the EU 
remains the safest transport area in the world, in particular in the most frequently 
used  mode,  road  transport,  a  substantial  problem  remains.  In  recent  years  the 
reduction of fatalities on EU roads has stagnated, and there was still 22,700 lives in 
2019. 

12.  This Staff Working Document provides an overview of the Commission services’ 
assessment  of  the  aforementioned  challenges  –  sustainability,  digitalisation, 
resilience  –  that  the  EU transport  sector  faces,  underpinning  the  Strategy  and  the 
actions put forward within in it. It also briefly describes the expected evolution of 
European mobility if we were to rely on existing policies, and outlines some of the 
key  elements  of  the  economic,  social  and  technological  context,  including  the 
impact  of  the  COVID-19  pandemic,  and  the  substantial  global  dimension  of 
transport. In addition, it gives an overview of the key policy developments in the 
transport sector since the adoption of the 2011 White Paper on transport5. Finally, 
this Staff Working Document provides a description of the pathways/scenarios for 
reaching  the  sustainability  objectives  for  the  sector,  common  to  those  supporting 
the 2030 Climate Target Plan6. 

5  White  Paper  Roadmap  to  a  Single  European  Transport  Area  –  Towards  a  competitive  and  resource  efficient  transport  system, 
COM(2011) 144 final. 
6 However, this Staff Working Document does not analyse in detail the specificities of each action set out in the Strategy. Those will 
be adequately addressed for each initiative in line with established Better Regulation practices at the time of their development. 

8 

 
 
 
                                                      
2  EUROPEAN MOBILITY AND TRANSPORT – WHERE ARE WE HEADING? 

2.1 

Identifying the greenhouse gas emissions gap for transport 

13.  The European Green Deal has set the key objective to deliver a 90% reduction in 
transport-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 relative to 1990. This 
objective builds on the in-depth analysis accompanying “A Clean Planet for all - A 
European  strategic  long-term  vision  for  a  prosperous,  modern,  competitive  and 
climate neutral  economy”7,8. Transport excluding international  maritime currently 
accounts for a quarter of all EU GHG emissions. Road transport alone represents 
around 20% of the total. 

14.  The Commission has undertaken an analysis exploring the impact of key EU level 
and Member States policies adopted by the end of 2019, in the so-called Baseline 
scenario.  To  ensure  consistency,  the  same  Baseline  scenario  is  used  as  in  the 
Impact  assessment  accompanying  the  Commission  Communication  “Stepping  up 
Europe’s  2030  climate  ambition  -  Investing  in  a  climate-neutral  future  for  the 
benefit  of  our  people”9.  The  Baseline  projections  show  that  EU-27  transport 
emissions would go down over time, thanks to policies in place driving the roll out 
of zero- and low-emission vehicles and the recharging/refuelling infrastructure, the 
uptake  of  renewable  and  low  carbon  fuels  and  improvements  in  transport  system 
efficiency.  Emissions  from  transport  including  intra-EU  aviation  and  intra-EU 
maritime are projected to be 18% lower by 2030 compared to 2005, and 40% lower 
by  2050  relative  to  2005.  Compared  to  199010  however,  this  translates  into  3% 
higher  emissions  by  2030  and  only  25%  lower  emissions  by  2050,  due  to  high 
increases in transport emissions during the 1990s11.  

15.  Building on the Baseline projections, several scenarios have been developed for 
EU-27  in  the  context  of  the  Impact  Assessment  accompanying  the  2030 
Climate Target Plan for increasing the EU’s GHG emission reductions target for 
2030 to at least 55% compared with 1990 levels. By 2030, these scenarios achieve 
increased  climate  ambition  by  intensification  of  current  energy,  transport  and 
climate policies or  extension of carbon pricing to new sectors of the economy or 
combination  of  both12  (see  section  5).  They  all  achieve  climate  neutrality  by 
2050.  In  addition,  the  scenarios  explore  different  scopes  for  the  emissions 
reduction target that is particularly relevant for international aviation and maritime 
transport:  intra-EU  versus  intra-  and  extra-EU  scope.  The  scenarios  achieving 
economy-wide emissions reductions of at least 55% by 2030, show that transport 
emissions  (including  intra-EU  aviation  and  intra-EU  maritime)  would  need  to 

a 

and 

773, 

neutral 

climate 

available 

competitive 

prosperous,  modern, 

economy”,  COM(2018) 

7 In-depth analysis in support of the Commission Communication “A Clean Planet for all  - A European strategic long-term vision 
for 
at: 
https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/docs/pages/com_2018_733_analysis_in_support_en_0.pdf.  
8 This covers international aviation but excludes international maritime in line with the 2030 climate and energy policy framework. 
The in-depth analysis has additionally shown that when the international maritime sector is considered part of the economy-wide net 
zero greenhouse gas emissions target, the emissions from international maritime should go down by around 80% by 2050 relative to 
1990 (87% decrease compared to 2005). 
9 Impact assessment accompanying the Commission Communication “Stepping up Europe’s 2030 climate ambition - Investing in a 
climate-neutral future for the benefit of our people”, SWD(2020) 176 final. 
10 The base year for defining the level of the climate ambition for 2030 and 2050. 
11 When all intra-EU and extra-EU aviation and maritime emissions are accounted, the Baseline scenario results in 13% reduction in 
transport emissions by 2030 and 29% decrease by 2050 compared to 2005 levels. 
12  While  some  policies,  notably  CO2  standards  for  light  duty  and  heavy  duty  vehicles  are  represented  in  more  detail,  others  are 
represented in a more stylised manner and the impacts of such policies are subject to higher uncertainty. Subject to dedicated impact 
assessment for each policy initiative, it is possible that different policy instruments, different parameters of these policies (e.g. in 
case  of  CO2  standards  for  light  duty  and  heavy  duty  vehicles)  and  nature  of  instruments  (e.g.  regulation,  voluntary  agreement, 
financing, information campaign) than the ones assumed in this modelling exercise might be necessary or desired.  

9 

 
                                                      
decrease  by  21-23%  by  2030  relative  to  2005  and  96-97%  by  2050.  This  is 
equivalent in terms of the 1990 comparison to reducing transport emissions by 1-
3% by 2030 and by around 94-96% by 205013.  

16.  Comparing  developments  under  existing  policies  (i.e.  the  Baseline  scenario, 
achieving  18%  emissions  reduction  in  transport  by  2030  and  40%  by  2050)  with 
scenarios  achieving  economy-wide  emissions  reductions  of  at  least  55% by  2030 
and climate neutrality by 2050 (21-23% emissions reduction in transport by 2030 
and 96-97% by 2050), shows that additional policies are needed post-2020 in order 
to close the gap, and provide a cost-effective transport contribution to the European 
Green  Deal.  While  reducing  its  environmental  footprint,  increasing  the  uptake  of 
renewable and low-carbon fuels and decreasing its GHG emissions, transport also 
needs under the Green Deal to continue to meet society's needs, and deliver on its 
zero  pollution  ambition  by  reducing  its  other  negative  environmental  and  health 
impacts. The analysis in section 5 shows how to close this emission gap by 2030 
and  2050.  Curbing  GHG  emissions  from  transport  also  reduces  the  EU's 
dependence  on  fossil  fuels  and  brings  clear  co-benefits  leading  to  reductions  of 
costs  related  to  air,  water,  soil  pollution,  road  crashes,  congestion  and  noise 
pollution.  

2.2  Developments under current policies 

17.  The  Baseline  scenario  is  developed  building  on  a  set  of  assumptions,  including 
GDP  and  population  projections,  fuel  prices  projections  and  technology  costs,  as 
well as policies adopted by the end of 2019. It reflects a wealth of policy measures 
that  drive:  (i)  the  uptake  of  zero-  and  low-emission  vehicles  and  the  roll-out  of 
recharging/refuelling infrastructure14; (ii) the uptake of renewable and low carbon 
fuels15; (iii) improvements in transport system efficiency - by making the most of 
digital  technologies  and  smart  pricing  and  further  encouraging  multi-modal 
integration and shifts towards more sustainable transport modes16. It also includes 
initiatives addressing road safety17, and thus  contributing to reducing the external 
costs of transport. 

18.  For  aviation,  it  takes  account  of  the  implementation  of  the  EU  Emission Trading 
Scheme,  the  Single  European  Sky,  the  deployment  of  SESAR  solutions,  the 
research  and  development  of  cleaner  aircraft  technologies  lead  by  Clean  Sky 
public-private partnership and aircraft CO2 emissions standards, as part of the so-
called “basket of measures” that aim to reduce emissions from the sector. 

19.  For  maritime,  the  Baseline  scenario  reflects  the  Energy  Efficiency  Design  Index 
(EEDI)  and  the  Ship  Energy  Efficiency  Management  Plan  (SEEMP)  adopted  by 
the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), as well as IMO MARPOL Annex 
VI  rules  as  regards  the  reduction  of  nitrogen  and  sulphur  oxides  emissions,  the 

13  When  all  intra-EU  and  extra-EU  aviation  and  maritime  emissions  are  considered  in  the  scope  of  EU-27  emissions  reduction 
target, the projections show that transport emissions (including intra- and extra-EU aviation and maritime) would need to decrease 
by 19% by 2030 and 92% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels. 
14  It  includes  the  post-2020  CO2  standards  for  new  light  duty  and  heavy  duty  vehicles,  the  Clean  Vehicles  Directive  and  the 
Directive on the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure. 
15 It covers the Renewables Energy Directive, the Fuel Quality Directive and the Directive on the deployment of alternative fuels 
infrastructure. 
16 It includes the TEN-T Regulation supported by CEF funding, the fourth Railway Package, the Rail Freight Corridors Regulation, 
the  proposed  revision  of  the  Eurovignette  Directive,  the  Directive  on  Intelligent  Transport  Systems,  the  European  Rail  Traffic 
Management  System  European  deployment  plan,  the  Regulation  establishing  a  framework  for  the  provision  of  port  services,  the 
revised EU urban mobility package, etc. 
17  Based  on  the  fatality  and  serious  injury  savings  projected  by  the  changes  to  the  General  Safety  Regulation  (Regulation  (EU) 
2019/2144) and the Road Infrastructure Safety Management Directive (Directive (EU) 2019/1936) agreed in 2019. 

10 

 
                                                      
latter being transposed into EU legislation by the Sulphur Directive18. The baseline 
also  accounts  for other initiatives addressing air  pollution from  inland waterways 
vessels19. 

20.  The  Baseline  scenario  is  a  projection  of  what  would  happen  in  the  absence  of 
policy  change  and  not  a  forecast  of  likely  future  developments.  It  builds  on  pre-
COVID-19  assumptions,  which  can  be  interpreted  as  assuming  full  economic 
recovery to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by 2030. There are large uncertainties 
related  to  the  lengths  of  the  pandemic  and  its  impacts  on  economy  and  transport 
activity.  Alternative  growth  scenarios  could  also  materialise.  A  discussion  of  the 
impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and an alternative Baseline scenario reflecting the 
COVID-19  pandemic  is  provided  in  the  following  section.  A  full  description  of 
assumptions,  including  GDP  and  population  projections,  fuel  prices  projections 
and  technology  costs,  as  well  as  policies  underpinning  the  Baseline  scenario  is 
provided in Annex I.  

21.  Significantly,  even  though  the  Baseline  scenario  fails  to  meet  the  climate 
challenge,  EU  transport  activity  would  also  only  continue  to  grow,  albeit  at  a 
slower pace than in the past. Freight transport activity for inland modes (expressed 
in tonne-kilometres) would increase by just 33% between 2015 and 2030 (1.9% per 
year) and just 56% for 2015-2050 (1.3% per year). Passenger traffic (expressed in 
passenger-kilometres)  growth  would  be  even  lower  than  for  freight  with  a  19% 
increase by 2030  (1.2%  per  year) and 34% by 2050 (0.8% per  year). The annual 
growth rates by mode, for passenger and freight transport, are provided in Figure 2. 

Figure 2: Passenger and freight transport activity in the Baseline scenario (average 
growth rate per year) 

Source: Baseline scenario, PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 
Note: For aviation, domestic and international intra-EU activity is reported, to maintain the comparability with reported statistics. 
For  freight,  inland  navigation  transport  covers  inland  waterways  and  national  maritime.  International  maritime  is  reported 
separately.  

22.  Road transport would maintain its dominant role within the EU. The share of road 
transport  in  inland  freight  would  remain  relatively  stable  by  2030  at  71%  and 
slightly  decrease  to  69%  by  2050.  For  passenger  transport,  road  modal  share  is 

18 Directive (EU) 2016/802 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 May 2016 relating to a reduction in the sulphur 
content of certain liquid fuels, OJ L 132, 21.5.2016, p. 58–78. 
19  Regulation  (EU)  2016/1628  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  14  September  2016  on  requirements  relating  to 
gaseous and particulate pollutant emission limits and type-approval for internal combustion engines for non-road mobile machinery. 

11 

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%TotalpassengertransportRoadRailIntra-EUaviationInlandnavigationtransportAnnual growth rates in the Baseline'15-'30'30-'500.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%Total freighttransportRoadRailInlandnavigationtransportAnnual growth rates in the Baseline'15-'30'30-'50 
 
 
                                                      
projected  to  decrease  by  3  percentage  points  between  2015  and  2030  and  by 
additional 3 percentage points by 2050. Passenger cars would still contribute 70% 
of  passenger  traffic  by  2030  and  about  two  thirds  by  2050,  despite  growing  at 
lower  pace  relative  to  other  modes,  due  to  slowdown  in  car  ownership  increase 
which is close to saturation levels in many Western European Member States. 

23.  Rail transport activity is projected to grow significantly faster than for road, driven 
in particular by the assumed completion of the TEN-T core network by 2030 and 
of the comprehensive network by 2050, supported by the CEF, Cohesion Fund and 
ERDF  funding.  Passenger  rail  activity  would  go  up  by  32%  between  2015  and 
2030  (66%  for  2015-2050),  increasing  its  modal  share  by  1  percentage  point  by 
2030 and an additional percentage point by 2050. Rail freight activity would grow 
by  40%  by  2030  and  81%  during  2015-2050,  resulting  in  similar  increases  in 
modal share as for passenger rail by 2030 and two additional percentage points by 
2050. 

24.  Based on pre-COVID-19 pandemic assumptions, domestic and international intra-
EU air transport would grow significantly (by 56% during 2015-2030 and 102% by 
2050) and increase its share in overall transport demand (by 2 percentage points by 
2030  and  by  additional  2  percentage  points  by  2050).  Overall,  aviation  activity 
including intra-EU and extra-EU flights is projected to go up by 54% by 2030 and 
101% by 2050, putting pressure on airports capacity and on air traffic management.  
25.  Transport activity of freight inland navigation20 also benefits from the completion 
of  the  TEN-T  core  and  comprehensive  network  and  the  promotion  of  inland 
waterway  transport  and  would  grow  by  19%  during  2015-2030  and  by  35%  by 
2050. The significant growth in freight inland navigation and rail freight activity is 
also supported by road pricing, the implementation of electronic documentation for 
freight transport and the European Maritime Single Window environment. 

26.  International  maritime  transport  activity  would  grow  strongly  in  the  Baseline  (by 
23% between 2015 and 2030 and 54% by 2050), due to rising demand for primary 
resources and container shipping.   

20 Inland navigation covers inland waterways and national maritime.  

12 

 
                                                      
Figure 3: Projected evolution of international maritime transport activity in the Baseline 
scenario 

Source: Baseline scenario, PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

27.  Total  energy  use  in  transport,  including  international  aviation  and  international 
maritime, is projected to decrease by 3% between 2015 and 2030 and by 13% by 
2050,  which  in  the  context  of  growing  activity  shows  the  projected  progress  in 
terms  of  energy  efficiency.  These  developments  are  mainly  driven  by  the 
implementation of the CO2 emission performance standards for new light duty and 
heavy  duty  vehicles  post-2020,  supported  by  the  roll-out  of  recharging  and 
refuelling infrastructure and also by the shift towards more energy efficient modes 
such as rail and waterborne transport.  

Figure 4: Projected evolution of energy consumption per transport mode in 2030 and 2050 
relative to 2015 (% change) in the Baseline scenario 

Source: Baseline scenario, PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

28.  Road transport is responsible for more than 70% of total energy use in transport but 
this share is projected to significantly decline over time, to 68% by 2030 and 59% 

13 

 
 
 
 
 
by  2050  thanks  to  the  progressive  electrification  of  the  sector  and  greater  use  of 
more  sustainable  transport  modes.  On  the  other  hand,  use  of  bunker  fuels  for  air 
and  maritime  transport  are  projected  to  increase  significantly  by  2050.  Their 
respective shares would go up from around 12% to 14% for international maritime 
and 15% for international air transport in 2030 (19% for international maritime and 
18%  for  international  air  transport  in  2050).  Energy  use  in  rail  and  inland 
navigation  transport  would  increase  during  2015-2050  due  to  the  shift  from  road 
towards these modes, and despite their higher energy efficiency. Their respective 
shares in the total energy use in transport would remain limited to around 2% by 
2050.     

29.  Alternative  fuels21,  including  renewable  and  low  carbon  fuels,  are  projected  to 
represent 11.2% of transport energy demand (including international aviation and 
maritime transport) in the Baseline scenario by 2030 and 22.6% by 2050. Around 
5% of all transport fuels in 2030 would be of biological origin, as shown in Figure 
5, driven by policy measures and notably the Renewable Energy Directive. 

30.  Electricity use in transport would steadily increase over time as a result of uptake 
of zero and low-emission powertrains  in  road transport and further  electrification 
of rail. Its share in the total energy use in transport would go up from around 1.2% 
in 2015 to 3.4% in 2030 and 8.3% in 2050 (see Figure 5). The uptake of hydrogen 
would be facilitated by the increased availability of refuelling infrastructure, and is 
projected to represent 2.4% of energy use in transport by 2050.  

Figure 5: Share of alternative fuels used in transport (including international aviation and 
maritime) in the Baseline scenario 

Source: Baseline scenario, PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

31.  Battery electric vehicles would see faster growth beyond 2020, in particular in the 
segment of light duty vehicles, driven by the CO2 emission performance standards, 
supported  by  the  rolling-out  of  recharging  infrastructure.  The  share  of  battery 
electric  vehicles  in  the  total  stock  of  passenger  cars  would  reach  around  11%  by 

21  According  to  the  Directive  2014/94/EU,  ‘alternative  fuels’  refer  to  fuels  or  power  sources  which  serve,  at  least  partly,  as  a 
substitute for fossil oil sources in the energy supply to transport and which have the potential to contribute to its decarbonisation and 
enhance  the  environmental  performance  of  the  transport  sector.  They  include,  inter  alia:  electricity,  hydrogen,  biofuels,  synthetic 
and  paraffinic  fuels,  natural  gas,  including  biomethane,  in  gaseous  form  (compressed  natural  gas  (CNG))  and  liquefied  form 
(liquefied natural gas (LNG)), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). 

14 

 
 
 
                                                      
2030  and  30%  by  2050.  The  share  of  low  and  zero-emissions  cars  (including 
battery  electric,  fuel  cells  and  plug-in  hybrids)  is  projected  to  go  up  to  16%  by 
2030  and  54%  by  2050.  For  the  light  commercial  vehicles  segment,  the  share  of 
battery electric powertrains is projected at 6% by 2030 and 26% by 2050. Electric 
buses are projected to represent around 8% of the vehicle stock by 2030, driven by 
the  implementation  of  the  Clean  Vehicles  Directive  and  air  quality  concerns  in 
many cities banning combustion engine buses, while the uptake of electric and fuel 
cell heavy goods vehicles is projected to be more limited in the Baseline scenario 
(3% of vehicle stock by 2050)22.     

the  Directive  on 

32.  Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is projected to represent around 2.7% of the energy 
use in transport by 2030 and 7.1% by 2050 in the Baseline scenario, driven by the 
implementation  of 
the  deployment  of  alternative  fuels 
infrastructure  and  of  the  Regulation  on  non-road  mobile  machinery,  the  TEN-T 
Regulation and also by the MARPOL Annex VI rules as regards the reduction of 
nitrogen  and  sulphur  oxides  emissions  in  the  maritime  transport.  In  the  Baseline 
scenario,  the  share  of  LNG  use  in  heavy  goods  vehicles  energy  demand  is 
projected to go up to 6.8% by 2030 (12.9% by 2050) and for inland navigation to 
3.7% by 2030 (8.3 by 2050). LNG would provide about 4.3% of maritime bunker 
fuels by 2030 and 17.1% by 2050 – especially in the segment of short sea shipping. 

33.  Oil products would still represent about 89% of the EU transport sector needs 
in 2030 and 77% in 2050, despite the current renewables policies, CO2 emission 
performance  standards  for  new  light  duty  and  heavy  goods  vehicles,  and  the 
deployment  of  alternative  fuels  infrastructure  which  support  some  substitution 
effects  towards  alternative  fuels  such  as  biofuels  and  biomethane,  electricity, 
hydrogen and natural gas. 

Figure 6: Fuels use in transport (including international aviation and maritime) in the 
Baseline scenario 

Source: Baseline scenario, PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

34.  CO2  emissions  from  transport  including  international  aviation  but  excluding 
international maritime, in line with the 2030 climate and energy policy framework, 

22  Impact  Assessment  accompanying  the  Communication  from  the  Commission  ‘Stepping  up  Europe’s  2030  climate  ambition  -
Investing in a climate-neutral future for the benefit of our people’, SWD(2020) 176 final. 

15 

 
 
                                                      
are projected to be 14% lower by 2030 compared to 2005, and 36% lower by 2050. 
Compared to 1990 however, this translates into 9% higher emissions by 2030 and 
only  18%  lower  emissions  by  2050,  due  to  high  increases  in  transport  emissions 
during the 1990s. When accounting the intra-EU aviation and intra-EU maritime in 
the transport emissions, the Baseline projections show reductions of 18% by 2030 
and  40%  by  2050  relative  to  200523.  This  illustrates  the  significant  emissions 
reduction  gap  to  be  closed  by  2030  and  2050,  to  contribute  to  the  2030  Climate 
Target Plan and the European Green Deal objectives.  

35.  The  largest  contribution  to  the  projected  decline  in  transport  emissions  between 
2005  and  2050  is  due  to  increased  fuel  efficiency  of  passenger  cars  and  light 
commercial  vehicles.  Conversely,  aviation  has  been  one  of  the  fastest  growing 
sectors in terms of CO2 emissions over the past decades. Total CO2 emissions from 
flights  departing  from  the  EU-27  and  domestic  flights  within  the  territory  of  a 
Member State of the EU-27 grew from around 112 million tonnes (Mt) in 2005 to 
120  million  tonnes  in  2015,  equal  to  a  7.6%  increase.  In  the  Baseline  scenario, 
significant further growth is projected: 30% by 2050 relative to 2015, equivalent to 
41%  growth  over  the  2005-2050  period.  Taken  together  however,  the  decline  in 
passenger  cars  and  light  commercial  vehicles  emissions  over  the  2015-2050 
horizon  (of  around  307  Mt)  overcompensates  the  increase  in  emissions  from  the 
aviation sector (of around 36 Mt). 

Figure 7: CO2 emissions from transport (including international aviation but excluding 
international maritime) in the Baseline scenario 

Source: Baseline scenario, PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

36.  CO2 emissions from  passenger transport decline  by 39% in  the Baseline  by 2050 
compared to 2005. The largest contribution comes from passenger cars, driven by 
vehicle  efficiency  standards,  some  uptake  of  renewable  and  low  carbon  fuels 
(mainly  biofuels)  and  public  procurement  of  clean  vehicles  supported  by  the 
recharging/refuelling infrastructure. CO2 emissions from freight transport go down 
by  27%  between  2005  and  2050,  driven  by  vehicle  efficiency  standards,  some 

23 When all intra-EU and extra-EU aviation and maritime emissions are accounted in the transport emissions, the Baseline scenario 
results in 13% decrease in transport emissions by 2030 and 29% decrease by 2050 compared to 2005 levels. 

16 

 
 
                                                      
uptake of renewable and low carbon fuels and initiatives to improve the efficiency 
of the transport system - making the most of digital technologies and smart pricing 
and  further  encouraging  multi-modal  integration  and  shifts  towards  more 
sustainable transport modes.  

37.  CO2 emissions from international maritime have decreased by 17% between 2005 
and 2015. In the Baseline scenario they are however projected to go up by 18% by 
2030 relative to 2015 and by 39% by 2050. Relative to 2005, this is equivalent to a 
stabilisation of emissions by 2030 and 16% increase by 2050 which is not in line 
with the economy-wide climate neutrality objectives.         

38.  NOx emissions are projected to go down by 53% between 2015 and 2030 (69% by 
2050), mainly driven by the electrification of the road transport and in particular of 
the light duty vehicles segment. The decline in particulate matter (PM2.5) would 
be  slightly  lower  by  2030  at  49%  relative  to  2015  (72%  by  2050).  Air  quality 
issues represent a particular concern in urban areas. In the Baseline scenario NOx 
and PM2.5 emissions are projected to decrease at higher pace in urban relative to 
inter-urban  areas  (69%  reduction in  NOx emissions  by 2030  and 60% for PM2.5 
emissions),  thanks  to  the  use  of  more  sustainable  alternative  modes,  including 
active modes, and cleaner vehicles. Overall, external costs related to air pollutants 
would decrease by about 60% by 2030 (78% by 2050)24.  

39.  Congestion costs from transport are projected to increase by about 19% by 2030 
and 33% by 2050, relative to 2015. Congestion on the inter-urban network would 
be  the  result  of  growing  freight  transport  activity  along  specific  corridors,  in 
particular where these corridors cross urban areas with heavy local traffic. Thanks 
to policies in place, external costs of accidents are projected to go down by about 
14% by 2030 (20% for 2015-2050).  

2.3  Overall economic, social and technological trends 

2.3.1  Economic context 

40.  Economic growth plays a central role in the development of transport demand, so 
the strong economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has had, and will continue 
to  have,  a  major  impact.  It  materialises  through  three  main  channels.  First,  the 
partial or full shut down of entire sectors, due to the measures enacted to contain 
contagion, has severely disrupted domestic production in most countries, as well as 
service  sectors  like  transport  and  mobility.  Second,  the  propagation  of  such 
disruptions  along  global  value  chains  has  impaired  the  functioning  of  the  EU 
Single Market and of extra-EU supply chains. Third, the consequent loss of income 
is generating another sizeable shock, which feeds back through the demand side. If 
the situation is prolonged, financial strains will emerge and pose further barriers to 
recovery.  

41.  According to Eurostat data, compared with the same quarter of the previous year, 
in Q3 2020 the EU GDP decreased by 4.3 %, which represents a partial recovery 
after a decrease of 13.9 % in the previous quarter.  EU employment increased by 
0.9  %  compared  to  the  previous  quarter,  but  decreased  by  1.8%  compared  to  Q3 

24 Covering NOx, PM and SOx; excluding international maritime. 

17 

 
                                                      
2019.25  The  Commission  has  published  its  Spring  2020  Economic  Forecast  for 
2020-2021  for  the  EU-27  and  at  Member  State  level  on  6  May.26  The  forecast 
shows that the euro area economy will contract by a record 7.8% in 2020 and grow 
by 6.3% in 2021. The EU-27 economy is forecast to contract by 7.5% in 2020 and 
grow by around 6% in 2021. Growth projections for the EU and the euro area have 
been  revised  downwards  by  around  nine  percentage  points  compared  to  the 
Autumn 2019 Economic Forecast. 

42.  The Commission‘s Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast for 2020-2022 was published 
on  5  November.27  It  shows  that  the  EU-27  GDP  is  forecast  to  contract  by  about 
7.5%  this  year  before  rebounding  by  4%  in  2021,  which  is  less  than  previously 
forecast, and by 3% in 2022. This implies that the output in the European economy 
would barely return to pre-pandemic levels in 2022. 

43.  The economic slowdown estimated in the Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast leaves 
its  traces  on  households  too.28  Despite  being  protected  by  government  measures, 
aggregate  labour  income  is  set  to  decrease  in  2020  as  many  companies  defer 
decisions  about  employing  new  staff,  reduce  working  hours  or  staff  numbers. 
Some segments  of the workforce are likely to be affected more than others, with 
the  incomes  of  lower-wage  earners  and  younger  cohorts  showing  larger 
vulnerability  to  downturns.  All  in  all,  both  non-labour  and  labour  incomes  are 
expected  to  drag  disposable  incomes  to  a  similar  degree  in  2020,  while  turning 
supportive  again  in  both  2021  and  2022.  The  rise  in  unemployment  in  2020  will 
likely be substantial, and the rate only contained to 7.7% thanks to the short-time 
work schemes that people across the EU have benefitted from, as well as by other 
support  schemes  to  firms,  workers  and  the  self-employed.29  The  International 
Labour  Organization  (ILO)  estimates  the  loss  of  working  hours  compared  to  the 
pre-crisis level in Europe at 11.8%.30 Finally, a Eurofound survey finds that 38% of 
Europeans  report  their  financial  situation  as  worse  than  before  the  pandemic.31 
Close  to  half  of  households  indicate  they  cannot  make  ends  meet,  and  over  half 
report  they  cannot  maintain  their  standard  of  living  for  more  than  three  months 
without an income. Just from  the narrow perspective of the impact  on the sector, 
this  loss  in  household  income  is  likely  to  aggravate  the  drop  in  tourism  and 
passenger transport demand beyond the pandemic. 

44.  As a large part of the world went into lockdown, fossil fuel prices collapsed with 
crude oil spot prices halved compared to last year levels. The oil price is projected 
to gradually recover over time, reaching USD 80/bbl in 2030 and USD 118/bbl in 
2050.  It  is  however  projected  to  remain  below  the  projected  pre-COVID-19 
pandemic levels.32 The situation is still evolving, and it is currently not possible to 
understand  the  full  impact  of  the  unfolding  pandemic.  These  estimates  do  not 
include the possibility of more negative outcomes (e.g. due to  a second epidemic 
outbreak).  

for 

the 

(2020), 

‘GDP  and  employment 

third  quarter  of  2020’,  available  at: 

25  Eurostat 
flash  estimates 
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10662173/2-13112020-AP-EN.pdf/0ac3f053-f601-091d-ea21-db1ecaca7e8c 
26 European Commission (2020), ‘Spring 2020 Economic Forecast: A deep and uneven recession, an uncertain recovery’, available 
at:https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/spring-2020-
economic-forecast-deep-and-uneven-recession-uncertain-recovery_en.  
27 https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/ip136_en.pdf 
28 Ibid. 
29 European Commission, Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2020.  
30International 
https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_743146.pdf 
31 Eurofound (2020). ‘Living, working and COVID-19’.    
https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/sites/default/files/ef_publication/field_ef_document/ef20058en.pdf  
32 Communication from the Commission ‘Stepping up Europe’s 2030 climate ambition - Investing in a climate-neutral future for the 
benefit of our people’, COM(2020) 562 final. 

Labour  Organization 

the  world 

‘COVID-19 

of  work 

(2020), 

Third 

and 

- 

edition’.    

18 

 
                                                      
45.  Drawing on Commission’s Spring 2020 Economic Forecast, it is estimated that real 
GDP could be about 2.3% lower compared to pre-COVID-19 pandemic projections 
by 2030. Based on the estimates for GDP and the fossil fuel prices projections, an 
alternative  Baseline  scenario  (so-called  COVID-Baseline  scenario)  has  been 
developed with the PRIMES-GAINS modelling suite, to account for the impacts of 
the COVID-19 pandemic on transport activity.  This  shows lasting  changes in  the 
mobility trends by 2030 and 2050. The COVID-19 pandemic is projected to lead to 
lower total passenger transport activity of about 4% by 2030 and 2050 relative to 
the  pre-COVID-19  pandemic  situation,  despite  strong  recovery  starting  in  2021. 
Air  transport  would  be  most  affected,  driven  by  the  reduced  business  travel  and 
more  domestic  tourism  relative  to  the  pre-COVID-19  pandemic  situation.  Less 
commuting and preference given to individual transport modes would also have an 
impact  on  rail  and  public  transport  activity.  Road  transport  activity  would  be  the 
least  affected  in  the  medium  to  long  term.  A  comparison  between  the  growth  in 
transport  activity,  by  transport  mode,  in  the  Baseline  and  the  COVID-Baseline 
scenarios is provided in Figure 8.     

Figure 8: Passenger transport activity in the Baseline and the COVID-Baseline scenarios 
(cumulative growth rates for 2015-2030 and 2015-2050) 

Source: Baseline scenario, PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

46.  The  growth  of  freight  transport  volumes  tends  to  follow  the  rhythm  of  GDP 
growth.  As  a  result  of  the  economic  crisis  2008-2009,  the  volume  of  freight 
transport in tonnes-kilometres in the EU-27 has dropped close to the level of 2000. 
Since 2010 it’s been recovering slowly and only reached pre-crisis levels in 2017. 
The  volume  of  passenger-kilometres  travelled  in  the  EU-27  has  grown  quite 
steadily over the last ten  years and picked up notably since 2014.33 The recovery 
after the extreme drop of activity due to  the COVID-19 pandemic is  projected to 
take  a  longer  period  of  time,  until  pre-pandemic  transport  volumes  are  reached 
again. 

47.  The  COVID-Baseline  scenario  projects  lower  contraction  in  the  freight  transport 
activity relative to the passenger transport activity. In the medium to long term, it 
also  shows  higher  convergence  to  the  pre-COVID-19  pandemic  pace  of  growth 
compared  to  the  passenger  transport  activity.  By  2030  and  2050,  total  freight 

33  European  Commission  (2020),  ‘EU  Transport  in  Figures.  Statistical  Pocketbook  2020’.https://ec.europa.eu/transport/facts-
fundings/statistics/pocketbook-2020_en   

19 

0%20%40%60%InlandnavigationtransportExtra-EUaviationIntra-EUaviationRailtransportRoadtransportTotalpassegertransportCumulative growth rates 2015-2030COVID-BaselineBaseline0%20%40%60%80%100%InlandnavigationtransportExtra-EUaviationIntra-EUaviationRailtransportRoadtransportTotalpassegertransportCumulative growth rates 2015-2050COVID-BaselineBaseline 
 
 
 
                                                      
transport  activity  would  be  less  than  3%  below  its  projected  pre-COVID-19 
pandemic  levels.  Furthermore,  the  projections  show  that  the  pandemic  would  not 
induce  significant  changes  in  the  modal  shares  relative  to  the  pre-COVID-19 
pandemic.  A  comparison  between  the  growth  in  transport  activity,  by  transport 
mode, in the Baseline and the COVID-Baseline scenarios is provided in Figure 9.     

Figure 9: Freight transport activity in the Baseline and COVID-Baseline scenarios 
(cumulative growth rates for 2015-2030 and 2015-2050) 

Source: Baseline scenario, PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

48.  The  COVID-Baseline  projections  show  that  emissions  from  transport  including 
international aviation but excluding international maritime would be 16% lower by 
2030 compared to 2005, and 38% lower by 2050. Compared to 1990 however, this 
translates  into  7%  higher  emissions  by  2030  and  only  21%  lower  emissions  by 
2050, due to high increases in transport emissions during the 1990s. A comparison 
between the changes  in  the CO2  emissions from  transport relative to  2005 and to 
1990, in the Baseline and the COVID-Baseline scenarios is provided in Figure 10. 
When  accounting  the  intra-EU  aviation  and  intra-EU  maritime  in  the  transport 
emissions, the COVID-Baseline projections show reductions of 19% by 2030 and 
42%  by  2050  relative  to  2005.  This  shows  that  after  the  sharp  decline  in  CO2 
emissions  during  the  COVID-19  pandemic,  existing  policies  fall  well  short  in 
delivering the transport contribution to CO2 reductions under the European Green 
Deal and the 2030 Climate Target Plan.     

20 

0%20%40%InternationalmaritimeInlandnavigationtransportRailtransportRoadtransportTotal freighttransportCumulative growth rates 2015-2030COVID-BaselineBaseline0%20%40%60%80%InternationalmaritimeInlandnavigationtransportRailtransportRoadtransportTotal freighttransportCumulative growth rates 2015-2050COVID-BaselineBaseline 
 
 
Figure 10: CO2 emissions from transport (including international aviation but excluding 
international maritime) in the Baseline and COVID-Baseline scenarios 

Source: Baseline scenario, PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

49.  Trade is  a main determinant for freight demand. The WTO estimates world trade 
volumes  to  fall  by  13-32%  in  2020.  Almost  all  world  regions  are  projected  to 
suffer double-digit declines, but exports from Asia and North America may be hit 
the  hardest.  The  WTO  also  considers  that  trade  in  services  may  be  most  directly 
impacted.  A  recovery  in  2021  is  expected,  depending  on  the  duration  of  the 
COVID-19 pandemic. Globally, road fuel use was down 11% for the year, jet fuel 
down  33%  and  all  other  fuels  down  7%  in  April  compared  to  the  previous  year, 
according to Rystad Energy. 

50.  Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the OECD projected international trade to grow 
by  3.4%  annually  through  2030  and  3.2%  annually  through  2050.34  After  the 
previous  economic  crisis,  though,  international  trade  has  grown  modestly 
compared to growth rates prior to the 2008 economic downturn. This trend can be 
partly  explained  by  cyclical  factors  in  the  wake  of  the  downturn,  but  structural 
factors also play a role. Trade in services, for instance, increased from 23% to 30% 
between  2005  and  2017,  the  elasticity  of  trade  to  GDP  has  declined  and  the 
expansion of global value chains  has begun to  slow.35 Therefore, it is  difficult  to 
compare  the  effects  of  the  previous  economic  crisis  on  international  trade  to  the 
likely  effects  of  the  crisis  following  the  COVID-19  pandemic.  The  structural 
economic consequences of the latter are yet to be seen, also because international 
supply  chains  may  be  shortened  in  order  to  render  them  more  robust  against 
disruptions. 

51.  Politically, the environment for international trade development has become more 
uncertain  with  the  rise  of  political  movements  in  several  countries  that  question 
trade  liberalisation  and  advocate  more  protectionist  trade  policy  measures.  The 
widespread  call  for  shorter  supply  chains  and  re-patriating  value  chains  in  the 
context of the COVID-19 pandemic might constitute another significant challenge 
for international trade flows in the near future.  

34  International  Transport  Forum  (2019),  ‘Transport  Outlook  2019.  OECD  Paris’.  https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/transport/itf-
transport-outlook-2019_transp_outlook-en-2019-en  
35 Ibid. 

21 

 
 
 
                                                      
52.  The  WTO  estimates  that  the  direct  economic  effects  of  more  protectionist  trade 
policies have been modest to date but the uncertainty they generate may already be 
having an impact through reduced investment spending.36 

53.  Other  risks  identified  by  the  WTO  include  developing  and  emerging  economies 
experiencing capital outflows and financial contagion as interest rates may start to 
rise  in  developed  countries,  with  negative  consequences  for  trade.  Geopolitical 
tensions could threaten resource supplies and upset production networks in certain 
regions. Finally, structural factors such as the rebalancing of the Chinese economy 
away  from  investment  and toward consumption  are still present  and  could  weigh 
on import demand due to the high import content of investment.37 

54.  Commercial shipping could intensify in in light of the decrease of the extent of ice 
cover  in  the  Artic  Sea,  which  would  shorten  distances  considerably  from  Asia  to 
both  Europe  and  North  America.38  Large  transcontinental  infrastructure  projects 
may  establish  alternative  routes  between  major  trade  partners  in  East  Asia  and 
Europe, while also increasing access to markets in Central Asia and other regions 
including  Africa.  This  can  have  an  impact  on  port  activity  and  the  way  surface 
transport infrastructure is used. Some parts of current road, rail and river networks 
could  experience  major  reductions  in  traffic  while  others  would  see  sharp 
increases.  

55.  E-commerce  has  been  steadily  growing  and  is  predicted  to  increase  further,  in 
particular now that under the lockdown a larger share of consumers got acquainted 
with  buying  online,  and  households  re-assign  some  of  their  budgets  away  from 
holidays and towards home goods (e.g. home entertainment and home exercise).39 
Greater  ease  of  purchase  and  returns  can  increase  demand  and  foster  a  trend 
towards  more  individualised,  small-scale  deliveries,  leading  to  more  freight 
transport. To seize these the opportunities created by increase in demand for home 
deliveries,  e-commerce  and  carriers  have  to  adapt  delivery  scheduling  systems, 
optimizing routing and managing in real time delivery volumes.  

56.  As regards long distance travel, the tourism sector40 is one of the hardest-hit by the 
COVID-19  pandemic,  with  impacts  on  both  travel  supply  and  demand.  Travel 
restrictions,  flight  cancellations  and  frequency  reduction  have  significantly 
diminished  the  supply  of  travel  services  (both  domestic  and  international),  while 
demand continues to retract due to fears of contagion.  

57.  OECD data shows that the EU-27 recorded USD 430,481 million in travel receipts 
(exports)  in  2018,  representing  almost  30%  of  worldwide  figures.41  Passenger 
transport was estimated at 17% of tourism exports in Europe in 2018, international 
tourism  receipts  (hotels,  restaurants  etc.)  making  up  the  other  83%  according  to 
UNWTO data.42 According to the same source, 53% of international tourism trips 
in Europe were made by air transport, 40% by road, 4% by water and 3% by rail. It 
is  expected  that,  depending  on  de-confinement  strategies  of  each  Member  State, 

36 World Trade Organization (2018): ‘WTO downgrades outlook for global trade as risks accumulate’, press release of 27 September 
2018. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres18_e/pr822_e.htm.  
37 Ibid. 
38  International  Transport  Forum  (2018),  ‘Decarbonising  Maritime  Transport  Pathways 
203520352035’https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/b1a7632c-
en.pdf?expires=1565000545&id=id&accname=id24042&checksum=E8EF1EEA5165883BF77CEDEEC342B457.         
39 HSBC Global Research, "Global Container Shipping: Rally still has legs as visibility emerges post 3Q20", 7 September 2020. 
40 Tourism is one of many economic sectors that rely on transport services and create demand for transport.  
41  OECD  (2020),  ‘Tourism  Trends  and  Policies  2020’.  http://www.oecd.org/cfe/tourism/oecd-tourism-trends-and-policies-
20767773.htm  
42 UNWTO (2020), ‘Global and regional tourism performance’. https://www.unwto.org/global-and-regional-tourism-performance  

to  zero-carbon  shipping  by 

22 

 
                                                      
the share of each mode in tourism may substantively change in 2020 and possibly 
also in the near future. 

58.  The OECD estimates a 60% decline in international tourism in 2020, possibly up to 
80%  if  the  recovery  is  delayed  until  December.43  The  organisation  expects 
domestic tourism – which represents over 75% of the sector in OECD countries, as 
well as EU tourism to be the first to register a rebound.  

59.  In  May  2020,  the  UNWTO  estimated  that  international  tourism  could  decline  by 
60%  to  80%  in  2020  globally,  depending  on  the  speed  of  containment  and  the 
duration  of  travel  restrictions  as  well  as  borders  shutdown.  The  first  quarter  of 
2020  experienced  a  decrease  of  22%  and  USD  80  billion  at  global  level,  while 
Europe  experienced  a  -19%  of  international  tourist  arrivals.  Globally,  this  would 
translate into an estimated loss of USD 910 to 1,200 billion in international tourism 
receipts (exports) and 100 to 120 million jobs directly at risk. Recovery estimates 
remain mixed. 

60.  Finally, economic activity is also closely interrelated with the dynamics of energy 
demand and the price of crude oil. The world oil price is not only an important cost 
factor  for  the  transport  sector,  but  it  can  also  have  an  effect  on  the  choice  of 
transport  mode  (depending  on  the  oil  dependency  of  different  modes)  and 
innovation,  for  example  by  affecting  the  economic  attractiveness  of  alternative 
fuels or energy efficiency measures. 

61.  Oil markets are going through a period of extraordinary change, in the short term 
because  demand  has  vanished  in  the  context  of  the  COVID-19  pandemic.  In  the 
longer term,  demand is  shifting from  developed  economies  and transport fuels  to 
Asia and petrochemicals. 

62.  The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that, taking into account adopted 
and  planned  policies,  world-wide  oil  use  in  passenger  cars  will  peak  in  the  late 
2020s and during the 2030s demand will increase by only 0.1 million barrels/day 
on average each year. However there will be no definitive peak in oil use overall, 
as  there  are  continued  increases  in  petrochemicals,  lorries  and  the  shipping  and 
aviation  sectors.  For  Europe,  IEA  expects  the  total  demand  for  crude  oil  to  be  4 
million barrel/day lower in 2040 than in 2018.44 

63.  However,  the  evolution  of  both  oil  demand  and  oil  price  will  to  a  great  extent 
depend on the economic growth cycles of the world economy and on the level of 
ambition  with  which  more  sustainable  energy,  climate  and  transport  policies  will 
be pursued.     

2.3.2  Demographic trends 

Urbanisation 

64.  Freight  and passenger mobility demand also  grows as global population  expands, 
particularly in cities. Today in Europe, 74.9% of the population live in urban areas, 
compared  to  just  over  50%  in  1950,  making  Europe  one  of  the  most  urbanised 
regions in the world. The growth of the urbanisation rate in Europe is expected to 
continue, with the proportion of the population residing in urban areas projected to 

43  OECD  (2020),  ‘Tourism  Policy  Responses  to  the  Coronavirus  (COVID-19)’.  https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-
responses/tourism-policy-responses-to-the-coronavirus-covid-19-6466aa20/  
44 International Energy Agency (2019World Energy Outlook 2019’. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2019  

23 

 
                                                      
reach  83.7%  in  2050.45  It  remains  to  be  seen,  whether  the  economic  and  social 
impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on our societies will slow down this dominant 
long trend. 

65.  Single person households without children increased by 18.7 % between 2010 and 
2019  in  the  EU,  so  if  this  trend  continues,  the  pattern  of  transport  demand, 
particularly in urban areas, will change. During the last decade i.e. 2010-2019, the 
total  number  of  households  in  the  EU  increased  by  7.0  %.  In  2019,  the  EU-27 
recorded 195 million households with on average 2.3 members per household.46 

66.  Steady urbanisation means that the problems affecting many urban areas, such as 
congestion,  air  pollution,  road  crashes,  noise  and  saturation  of  transport  hubs  are 
likely to get worse. Transport represents an important source of air pollution and is 
responsible  for  growing  road  congestion  in  cities.  A  growing  number  of  cities 
implement vehicle access restriction in the urban areas (most often in the centres) 
to tackle increased noise, congestion and pollution, and improve safety (vulnerable 
road  users  such  as  pedestrians,  cyclists  and  users  of  powered  two-wheelers  now 
account for 70% of road deaths in cities).  

67.  At the same time, passenger and freight  transport  volumes on the comprehensive 
and  core  TEN-T  network  are  growing.  However,  missing  links  and  poor 
connections,  including  between  public  transport  and  active  modes  of  transport, 
remain the main challenges for integrating the urban nodes on the TEN-T network. 
They  can  also  lead  to  bottlenecks  and  congestion  at  peak  hour  due  to  a  lack  of 
connectivity,  and  to  a  high  degree  of  dependence  on  personal  motorised 
transportation. 

68.  Indeed, the capacity, availability, accessibility and affordability of public transport 
is an important overall issue for urban development, especially if the coverage and 
frequency  of  public  transport  network  are  insufficient,  or  if  there  are  barriers  to 
multi-modal  solutions,  such  as  the  combination  of  private  bike  or  car  and  public 
transport. 

69.  Walking and cycling, often referred to  as  active  modes of transport, are  certainly 
not new phenomena, but their importance in urban mobility has gained prominence 
in recent years as stand-alone transport mode and as part of a multi-modal transport 
solution.  Given  that  almost  half  of  all  car  trips  in  cities  are  of  less  than  five 
kilometres,  there  is  high  potential  for  further  expansion  of  active  mobility, 
including  in  new  fields,  e.g.  for  freight  transport  via  cargo-bikes  and  to  connect 
cities  with  their  surrounding  areas  via  e-bikes.  The  importance  of  walking  and 
cycling is gaining wider recognition, even more so since the COVID-19 pandemic. 
Pedestrian  zones  are  being  created  or  extended  in  various  cities  across  Europe. 
Likewise, bike lanes are being rapidly developed and made permanent. Alternative 
low and zero solutions for freight and parcel delivery in urban areas are coming on 
stream.  In  addition,  we  observe  a  growing  interest  by  employers  to  (financially) 
support and motivate their staff to walk or cycle to work.  

Ageing  

70.  Besides  the  relative  growth  of  the  share  of  the  population  living  in  urban  areas, 
ageing  societies  in  Europe  represent  another  demographic  trend  that  is  likely  to 
shape  mobility  patterns  in  the  future.  The  demographic  old-age  dependency  ratio 

45 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019): ‘World Urbanization Prospects 2018: 
Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/421)’. https://population.un.org/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2018-Highlights.pdf  
46 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Household_composition_statistics 

24 

 
                                                      
(people  aged  65  or  above  relative  to  those  aged  15-64)  is  projected  to  increase 
significantly  in  the  EU  as  a  whole  in  the  coming  decades.  From  about  25%  in 
2010,  it  has  risen  to  29.6%  in  2016  and  it  is  projected  to  rise  further,  eventually 
reaching 51.2% in 2070. This implies that the EU would move from four working-
age people for every person aged over 65 years in 2010 to around two working-age 
persons over the projection horizon.47 

71.  The ageing of the population has a strong correlation with the number of persons 
with  disabilities  and  reduced  mobility.  It  is  estimated  that  in  the  EU  there  are 
around 100 million persons with disabilities. Many of them have reduced mobility. 

72.  The  ageing  society  will  require  more  emphasis  on  accessibility,  the  provision  of 
safe,  secure,  reliable  and  adaptable  transport  services  featuring  appropriate 
solutions  for  users  with  disabilities  and  reduced  mobility.  For  instance,  one  can 
expect  higher  demand  for  door-to-door  mobility  and  driver  assistance  solutions. 
Public transport providers will have to adapt to an increasing amount of passengers 
with  disabilities  and  reduced  mobility,  requiring  investments  in  barrier-free 
infrastructure and rolling stock. At the same time, for public expenditure a higher 
ratio of older people will imply that more public resources will have to be devoted 
to pension payments, health care and long-term care, which may lead to pressure 
on  the  amount  of  funding  available  to  public  transport  and  maintenance  of 
transport  infrastructure.  This  structural  pressure  on  transport  infrastructure 
investments  can  be  aggravated  by  cyclical  factors.  In  the  wake  of  the  financial 
crisis  of  2008/09,  the  European  Investment  Bank  (EIB)  noted  that  infrastructure 
investment  had been disproportionally hit as  fiscal  consolidation  had been biased 
against capital expenditure, with prioritisation given to current expenditure such as 
social transfers to mitigate the immediate effects of the crisis.48 This does not mean 
that  social  transfers  would  not  have  been  concerned  by  fiscal  consolidation 
measures,  but  fiscal  consolidation  after  the  crisis  of  2008/09  has  significantly 
reduced room for public investments. 

73.  The picture of the demographic development in the EU can vary considerably from 
one  region  to  another.  Over  the  past  25  years,  some  of  the  Eastern  European 
Member States have lost a large share of their population through a combination of 
low  fertility  and,  most  notably,  sizeable  emigration.  Pre-existing  economic 
disparities  between  Member  States  have  encouraged  many  citizens  to  search  for 
work in places other than their country of origin. These developments have likely 
been  to  the  economic  benefit  of  the  EU  as  a  whole,  but  not  necessarily  for  all 
sending  Member  States.  This  contributes  to  slowing  the  convergence  between 
Member  States,  and  impacts  areas  such  as  transport  infrastructure,  education  and 
even population ageing.49 Intra-EU mobility has the biggest impact on the past and 
projected  population  change  in  the  eastern  Member  States,  where  it  exacerbates 
their population decline.  

74.  Our  ageing  society  has  not  only  an  effect  on  the  ‘demand’  side  of  transport,  but 
also  on  the  ‘supply’  side.  For  instance,  in  inland  waterway  transport,  where  – 
especially on the Rhine  – most enterprises are family owned and family operated 

47  European  Commission  (2017):  ‘The  2018  Ageing  Report  Underlying  Assumptions  &  Projection  Methodologies,  Institutional 
Paper  656565’.  https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/economy-finance/2018-ageing-report-underlying-assumptions-and-projection-
methodologies_en.  
48  European  Investment  Bank  (2017):  ‘Investment  Report  2017/2018.  From  Recovery  to  Sustainable  Growth.  Key  Findings. 
November 2017’. https://www.eib.org/attachments/efs/economic_investment_report_2017_en.pdf  
49 Lutz W. (Ed.), Amran G., Bélanger A., Conte A., Gailey N., Ghio D., Grapsa E., Jensen K., Loichinger E., Marois G., Muttarak 
R.,  Potančoková  M.,  Sabourin  P.,  Stonawski  M.,  Demographic  Scenarios  for  the  EU  -  Migration,  Population  and  Education  - 
executive summary , EUR 29739 EN, Publications Office, Luxembourg, 2019. 

25 

 
                                                      
SMEs,  the  aging  of  the  entrepreneur/crew  is  a  major  challenge,  as  young  people 
seem  to  be  less  interested  to  pursue  this  profession,  which  requires  living  on  the 
barge. 

75.  New forms of electric mobility, such as electric bicycles are already contributing to 
satisfying older people’s mobility needs in a flexible manner, allowing them to use 
an active and healthy mode for ways where they would otherwise rely on private 
cars or public transport. However, the new forms of e-mobility also bring about a 
specific  safety  challenge50  and  older  people  tend  to  be  more  vulnerable  than 
younger population groups. 

2.3.3  New technologies, changing consumer behaviour and working conditions 
76.  There  are  several  socio-economic  and  technological  developments51  that  have 

emerged or become more prominent in the last ten years.  

Collaborative economy 

77.  Firstly,  the  collaborative  economy  increasingly  affects  the  way  transport  services 
are organised with various bike and car sharing schemes, but also ride-sharing and 
ride-hailing  being  deployed  across  the  EU.  Some  of  these  schemes  generate  new 
forms  of  work  characterised  by  more  flexible  arrangements.  These  flexible  work 
arrangements should be implemented in accordance with EU labour law and social 
protection. 

78.  Continuous digitalisation has made it possible to develop the concept of  mobility 
as a service (MaaS) – a  mobility distribution model  in  which a customer’s  major 
transport  needs  are  met  by  services  integrating  transport  infrastructure,  transport 
services,  information  and  payment  services,  and  more.  This  approach  is  also 
possible due to the removal of barriers between different transport modes and their 
users, as well as the emergence of new collaborative economy solutions. The focus 
in this approach is not on personal ownership of transport modes, but on mobility 
per se, which is seen as service.  

79.  Data  sharing  and  collaborative  decision-making  enabled  by  digital  technologies 
propose  new  solutions  to  old  challenges.  Businesses  are  interacting  in  ways 
previously  unimagined,  new  business  models  and  services  appear,  based  on 
collaboration and sharing economy principles and enabled by data and advanced IT 
technologies.  For  instance,  in  freight  transport  and  logistics  there  is  generally  a 
shift  towards  collaborative  solutions,  where  partnerships  are  formed  for  the 
purpose  of  optimization  of  operations  by  sharing  equipment,  vehicles  and 
information.  Digital  solutions  should  lead  to  synchro-mobility,  a  step  change  in 
multimodal  transport  which  will  synchronise  intermodal  services  between  modes 
as well as with shippers for optimal resource use and delivery times. 

50 In Germany for instance, a country with a rapidly ageing society, 118 persons died in crashes riding an electric bicycle in 2019 (of 
(based  on 
which  85  were  aged  65  or  over),  out  of  445  cyclists  killed  –  17%  more 
https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2020/08/PD20_N049_46241.html).  Although  EU-wide  comparable  statistics 
are not available, some studies suggest that the amount of “dismounting” crashes (i.e. people losing their balance) is higher on e-
bikes  than  on  normal  bicycles,  particularly  for  older  users.  However,  many  serious  crashes  of  e-bikes  involve  a  conflict  with  a 
motorised vehicles, which reinforces the argument that segregated safe infrastructure could prevent many fatalities and injuries for 
all vulnerable road users, i.e. cyclists, pedestrians, scooter riders. See for example: E-bike safety. A review of Empirical European 
and  North  American  Studies:  https://wsd-pfb-sparkinfluence.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2019/10/EbikeSafety-VFinal.pdf  and 
Traffic  safety  of  electric  bicycles  –  A  naturalistic  cycling  study:  https://m.udv.de/en/road-user/electric-bicyclescars/road/cycling-
facilities/traffic-safety-electric-bicycles). 
51 Some of the relevant technological developments are described more in detail in subsequent sections. 

in  2010. 

than 

26 

 
 
                                                      
Teleworking 

80.  Telework has become much more widespread since the COVID-19 pandemic and 
newly  introduced  arrangements  could,  at  least  partially,  remain  in  place  in  the 
longer term52. Learning effects of remote working and improvements in technology 
are  likely  to  produce  various  ranges  of  effects  on  mobility  and  transport 
behaviours.  

81.  The pandemic has revealed large differences in the prevalence of telework across 
EU  Member  States,  sectors  and  occupations.  The  preparedness  for  telework  at  a 
large  scale  is  higher  in  ICT-  and  knowledge-intensive  sectors,  and  generally  for 
high-skilled workers, although with big differences across EU countries. In many 
EU countries, more than half of the workers who have started working from home 
since the pandemic had no prior experience with teleworking. If past trends are a 
guide, the uneven ability to scale up telework could result in widening inequalities 
across  countries,  firms,  genders  and  workers53,  e.g.  if  there  is  uneven  access  to 
broadband,  barriers for persons with disabilities or IT illiteracy to telework or use 
other  ICT  based  applications.  White-collar  workers  tend  to  have  jobs  that  can  be 
better adapted to telework requirements than blue-collar workers. 

82.  Telework  can  have  an  impact  particularly  on  urban  passenger  transport  demand, 
mainly  during  peak  hours  and  hence  also  alleviate  congestion  as  well  as  other 
environmental  externalities.  Another  sector  expected  to  be  affected  is  business 
travel with the rise of web based meeting arrangements during the pandemic. With 
more developed ICT equipment in modern office workplaces and more widespread 
availability of fast internet, at least in urban areas, the technical preconditions for 
telework arrangements have become easier to meet.  

83.  To date, large variations in the prevalence of telework exist. In the EU, before the 
COVID-19  pandemic,  the  share  of  employees  performing  regular  or  occasional 
telework (in urban  and  non-urban  areas) was highest  in  Denmark (37%), Finland 
(33%) and the Netherlands (30%). Relatively low shares of teleworking employees 
were found in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Mediterranean countries.54  

52 This could also entail an increase of the so-called “digital nomads”. 
53 Source: European Commission (2020): ‘Telework in the EU before and after the COVID-19: where we were, where we head to’:    
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/jrc120945_policy_brief_-_covid_and_telework_final.pdf 
54  Eurofound  and  the  International  Labour  Office  (2017):  ‘Working  anytime,  anywhere:  The  effects  on  the  world  of  work, 
Publications  Office  of 
International  Labour  Office,  Geneva’. 
https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/report/2017/working-anytime-anywhere-the-effects-on-the-world-of-work 

the  European  Union,  Luxembourg, 

and 

the 

27 

 
 
                                                      
Figure 11: Workforce working at home several times per month in 2015 

Source: OECD calculations based on Eurofound-ILO research 2017. 

84.  At  the  same  time,  asked  how  much  time  they  spend  every  day  travelling  to  and 
from  work, 47% of the  employees in  the EU indicate a commuting time of more 
than 30 minutes one way and 11% travel more than 60 minutes. The highest shares 
of  employees  travelling  more  than  60  minutes  from  or  to  work  are  found  in 
Sweden (24%), Denmark (22%) and Belgium (22%).55 

Digitalisation and automation 

85.  The increasing automation and digitalisation of transport offers a huge potential in 
terms  of  safety,  efficiency  and  sustainability  and  thus  also  new  opportunities  for 
women in transport jobs, since new job profiles imply less heavy physical labour 
and  more  digital  skills.  We  are  already  seeing  how  new  digital  automotive 
technologies  can  help  reduce  the  number  of  deaths  and  serious  injuries,  enable 
better  organising  and  executing  of  travel  and  transport  operations,  lower  energy 
consumption  and  pollution,  and  optimise  the  use  of  resources  and  existing 
infrastructure.  It  is  also  a  powerful  tool  to  overcome  the  disadvantages  - 
complexity,  higher  costs  and  risks  of  multimodal  transport,  and  to  facilitate  the 
better integration of the different modes of transport.  

86.  Based on existing policies for urban passenger transport and assuming an increased 
uptake  of  teleworking,  the  OECD  estimates  that  the  share  of  urban  passenger-
kilometres travelled in privately owned vehicles could decline from around 70% in 
2015  to  40%  by  2050  in  the  world.  Shared  modes  that  include  shared  vehicles 
systems (e.g. free-floating or non-free-floating shared cars, bikes or scooters) and 
optimised shared mobility services (e.g. a shared taxi, van or minibus with a driver) 
represented  only  1.5%  of  the  urban  passenger-kilometres  travelled  world-wide  in 
2015.  However,  they  are  expected  to  grow  to  over  20%  of  the  total  passenger 
transport demand in  cities by 2050 globally. The share of more traditional public 

55  Eurofound  (2017),  ‘Sixth  European  Working  Conditions  Survey  –  Overview  report  (2017  update),  Publications  Office  of  the 
European  Union,  Luxembourg’.  https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/report/2016/working-conditions/sixth-european-
working-conditions-survey-overview-report  

28 

 
 
                                                      
transport (bus, rail, metro) should grow modestly from 30% in 2015 to over 35% of 
all urban passenger-kilometres travelled worldwide by 2050.56 

87.  Though  opportunities  are  huge,  at  the  same  time  there  is  still  a  lack  of  solid 
framework  conditions  (e.g.  legal  and  social  aspects,  required  interoperable 
infrastructure  and  interfaces).  Alongside,  technological  challenges  remain  in  this 
fast-evolving field. 

88.  All  transport  modes  are  taking  advantage  of  digital  technologies,  Internet  of 
Things, and automation. Furthermore, digital technologies also enable or accelerate 
the  emergence  of  new  transportation  solutions,  ranging  from  progress  towards 
automated road vehicles, connected and automated lorries (platooning), driverless 
goods delivery vehicles, or self-driving trains to unmanned aircraft and ships that 
can  offer  taxi  services  over  short  distances,  and  other  potential  innovations. 
Moreover,  mobility 
intertwines  with  other  sectors  such  as  automotive, 
environmental  or  digital,  where  new  players  take  a  more  relevant,  or  even 
dominant,  position  through  the  provision  of  new  transport  services  based  on 
digitalisation.  

89.  Concerning drones, they can make a significant contribution to the development of 
greener and cheaper local transport solutions in  urban, peri-urban and inter-urban 
contexts. The technology is already there, fully functional and offering a multitude 
of applications, such as precision agriculture, infrastructure inspection, transport of 
medical  supplies,  environmental  compliance,  atmospheric  research,  media  and 
entertainment,  sport  photos,  filming,  wildlife  protection  and  research,  disaster 
relief, etc. The global drones market is forecast to increase from USD 4.9 billion in 
2019  to  USD  14.3  billion  in  2028.  Out  of  total,  Europe’s  drone  start-up 
investments is expected to represent only 9%, indicating a clear lag behind US and 
Chinese  firms’  investments  in  this  technology.  Commercial  use  will  surpass  the 
consumer drone market in 2023, becoming the largest segment. It might grow more 
than  eightfold  to  reach  USD  9.5  billion  in  2028.57  In  terms  of  jobs,  for  Europe, 
employment  is  estimated  to  increase  to  about  150,000  jobs  by  2050  in 
manufacturing with additional jobs created in drone operator services.58 

90.  Air  traffic  management  (ATM)  is  also  a  sector  with  increased  use  of  digital 
technologies,  notably  solutions  brought  by  the  SESAR  project.  Innovative 
infrastructure projects can lead to substantial efficiency gains in the aviation sector 
and  a  reduction  of  emissions  resulting  from  aviation  activities.  It  is  the  aim  that 
ATM  system  infrastructure  progressively  evolves  with  the  adoption  of  advanced 
digital  technologies,  allowing  civil  and  military  air  navigation  service  providers 
(ANSPs),  airports  and  the  network  manager  to  provide  their  services  in  a  cost-
efficient  and  effective  way  irrespective  of  national  borders,  supported  by  secure 
information  services.  Moreover,  ATM  progressively  needs  to  evolve  into  a  data 
ecosystem  supported  by  a  service-oriented  architecture  to  enable  the  virtual 
defragmentation of European skies.  

91.  With  respect  to  automated  road  vehicles,  similar  developments  can  be  observed. 
Automated  driving  will,  in  the  future,  play  a  key  role  on  the  transformation  of 
mobility, and also on the automotive sector. Ultimately, safety is one of the crucial 
underlying  justifications  for  automated  and  connected  vehicles.  However,  in  the 

56  ITF  (2019):  Transport  Outlook  2019,  OECD,  Paris.  International  Transport  Forum  (2019),  ‘Transport  Outlook  2019,  OECD, 
Paris’. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/transport/itf-transport-outlook-2019_transp_outlook-en-2019-en  
57  Estimates  published  by  TEAL  Group  in  press  release  on  16  June  2019:  https://www.tealgroup.com/index.php/pages/press-
releases/60-teal-group-predicts-worldwide-civil-drone-production-will-almost-triple-over-the-next-decade.  
58      Estimate provided by ASD, the Aero-Space and Defence Industries Association of Europe. 

29 

 
                                                      
forthcoming  transitional  phase,  where  we  will  see  mixed  traffic  of  highly 
automated  and  “traditional”  vehicles  as  well  as  other  road  users  like  pedestrians 
and  cyclists,  new  safety  risks  require  proper  consideration.  The  driverless  freight 
delivery  vehicles  and  connected  and  automated  lorries  hold  a  promise  of 
significant  reductions  in  operational  costs  to  make  the  freight  delivery  services 
cheaper.  The  deployment  of  self-driving  technologies  should  be  well  prepared  to 
prevent undesired social effects. 

92.  Besides, the large amount of generated data will significantly impact the complete 
value  chain,  mainly  on  the  digital  and  automotive  sectors.  The  whole  industrial 
sector  will  need  to  evolve  and  adapt  in  a  fast  pace  to  stay  ahead  in  global 
competitiveness, while including all stakeholders and addressing societal needs.59  

93.  As  new  technologies  have  allowed  for  driver  assistance  and  ever  more  advanced 
active safety systems for vehicles, in the future they could lead to the emergence of 
new  mobility  services  based  on  highly  or  fully  automated  vehicles.  Cooperative 
intelligent  transport  services  now  being  deployed  in  vehicles  and  on  road 
infrastructure  will  support  the  transition  to  automation.  Highly  automated  road 
vehicles  function  in  certain  areas  (i.e.  highways,  ports  and  shuttles)  and  could 
already  be  operational  in  the  near  future.  Several  large-scale  EU  demonstration 
projects60 are already ongoing for both passenger cars, freight vehicles and public 
transport in anticipation of this substantial change.  

94.  On the other hand, automation and digitalisation offers new mobility opportunities 
and  more  comfort,  which  could  lead  to  an  increase  in  road  transport  demand, 
which might increase for instance congestion. 

95.  Automation is also important for rail transport. It is already in widespread use on 
metro  systems  and  is  now  being  extended  to  heavy  rail  too.  It  will  bring  very 
significant  energy  savings  due  to  more  efficient  driving,  and  (combined  with  the 
latest versions of ERTMS) can allow capacity increases of more than 30% even on 
the most congested infrastructure provided rail operations are  adequately adapted 
to benefit from digital innovation. Technologically it is far simpler than equivalent 
road technologies, so with strong coordination between the rail infrastructure and 
the  operations  on  the  rail  network,  it  can  and  should  be  rapidly  deployed. 
Combined with increased automation of rail traffic management and timetabling, it 
should lead to much greater flexibility in service provision. 

Changes in industry and logistics in the EU 

96.  Further  changes  in  the  way  the  world  economy  and  industry  operates  (e.g. 
increasingly complex business structures and supply chains, growing importance of 
software, 3D printing or shift to circular economy) will require further optimisation 
of transport services, mainly in freight transport, and changes in design of transport 
vehicles  and infrastructure. The aforementioned  elements  have  also  an impact  on 
the  employment  in  the  transport  sector,  in  terms  of  opportunities,  required  skills 
and working conditions. 

97.  Great  uncertainty  surrounds  the  extent  to  which  re-shoring  and  3D  printing  will 
dampen future growth of freight transport. If adopted extensively, both can affect 
the  type  of  goods  moved,  decrease  the  distances  between  production  and 
consumption centres and thus fundamentally alter today’s long and complex supply 

59ERTRAC (2015): Automated Driving Roadmap 2015 
https://www.ertrac.org/uploads/documentsearch/id38/ERTRAC_Automated-Driving-2015.pdf  
60 https://knowledge-base.connectedautomateddriving.eu/projects/ 

30 

 
                                                      
chains. A significant decrease in the total value of internationally traded goods can 
greatly reduce sea and air transport volumes. 

98.  Nonetheless, freight volumes are expected to continue to grow strongly. Before the 
outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, global freight demand was projected to triple 
between  2015  and  2050.61  Currently,  the  outlook  for  international  trade  is  more 
fragile  although  volumes  are  recovering.  At  the  same  time,  freight  transport  and 
logistics are undergoing major transformations, and these will likely be even more 
disruptive in the future. Technology, business models, consumer behaviour, shifts 
in trade patterns, and other factors all contribute to a changing transport landscape, 
and how they play out can have a substantial impact on the projected growth. New 
technologies  and  smart  digital  solutions  supported  by  effective  modernised 
regulation  are  needed  to  accommodate  this  major  increase  in  transport  demand 
sustainably  –  i.e.  with  only  limited  increase  in  assets  and  energy  consumption. 
Increased productivity and efficiency of the logistics and supply chains remains in 
this  context  a  key  challenge.  In  container  shipping,  ship  sizes  and  total  capacity 
have  increased  by  a  factor  of  2.5  between  2004  and  2018  while  the  number  of 
companies  has  almost  halved  over  the  same  period.62  E-commerce  and  last-mile 
logistics  are  equally  increasing  significantly,  a  trend  further  accelerated  as  a 
consequence of COVID-19 pandemic.  

99.  Digitalisation  and  automation  of  transport  services  also  raise  new  challenges  for 
service providers, especially in terms of personal data protection, data sovereignty, 
interoperability,  cyber  security  and  user  acceptance.  Cyber-attacks  may  lead  to 
delays  of  services,  damage  to  physical  systems,  data  theft,  or  even  passenger 
injuries.  There  are  also  concerns  that  remotely  controlled  aircraft  and  automated 
rail  and  road  vehicles  may  be  subject  to  hacking  or  hi-jacking  from  distance. 
Similar concerns arise in the maritime area, because of the growing digitalisation 
of sea navigation. 

2.4 

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the transport sector63 

100. Although  not  reflecting  a  long-term  trend,  the  COVID-19  pandemic  is  having 
significant  effects  on  the  transport  sector,  which  have  the  potential  to  shape  the 
sector for years to come.  

101. Transport is one of the most severely affected sectors by the COVID-19 pandemic, 
along  with  sectors  such  as  tourism  and  hospitality.  The  impact  was  driven  in  the 
short  term  by  lockdown  measures  (including  travel  restrictions,  tele-working  and 
home-schooling), other restrictions and voluntary avoidance efforts. This has led to 
steep reductions in manufacturing and transport activity, as well as reduced activity 
in service sectors such as retail stores, hotels and restaurants, etc. In addition it had 
a  huge  impact  on  reduced  levels  of  physical  activity  and  general  fitness  among 
children.  The  crisis  has  also  highlighted  the  strategic  importance  of  transport  for 
the  supply  of  essential  goods  such  as  food,  medicines  and  supply  of  essential 
materials, particularly pronounced in certain remote regions such as the outermost 

61 Source: OECD projections. 
62  United  Nations  Conference  on  Trade  and  Development 
https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/rmt2018_en.pdf  
63 Section 4.3.1 describes in detail some of the relevant measures that have been taken so far at European level to address the impact 
of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

‘Review  of  Maritime  Transport  2018’. 

(2018): 

31 

 
                                                      
regions64. The resilience of the transport and logistics system in Europe has been a 
key contributing factor to managing the crisis effectively. 

102. The  pandemic’s  short-term  impact  on  the  transport  sector,  in  particular  on 
passenger  transport,  as  well  as  on  global  supply  chains  is  dramatic  and 
unprecedented  on  this  scale  in  the  post-war  period.  Lockdown  measures  led  to  a 
prolonged  standstill  in  production  across  many  sectors  creating  supply  chain 
disruptions  across  the  EU.  This  has  led  to  a  general  fall  in  freight  transport 
demand.  On  the  other  hand,  increased  on-line  shopping,  including  of  essential 
goods  such  as  groceries  and  pantry  items,  have  almost  doubled  the  usual  home 
delivery  rates.  This  increase  of  demand  revealed  limitations  in  last-mile  delivery 
capacity, also due to the lack of drivers, at least in the short run. 

103. The  long-term  effects  on  transport  activity  will  only  become  clear  after  the 
pandemic has come to an end and will largely depend on the pace of the economic 
recovery.  Preliminary  transport  activity  projections,  reflecting  the  impacts  of  the 
COVID-19 pandemic at EU-27 level, have been presented in section 2.3.  

104. Behavioural  changes  already  seen  before  the  COVID-19  pandemic  (e.g.  urban 
mobility) may affect certain transport modes as economies re-open, with long term 
effects  for  some.  Web-based  meeting  arrangements  which  have  grown  in  use 
during  the  pandemic  are  likely  to  become  more  frequent  even  beyond  the 
pandemic,  thus  adversely  affecting  business  travel.  Global  supply  chains  may  be 
reorganised with a view of rendering them more robust against the fall-out due to 
interruptions  in  freight  distribution,  affecting  transport  volume  and  patterns.  The 
growth  in  e-commerce  may  become  a  long  term  trend  with  a  new  level  of 
customers’  expectations  for  faster,  contactless  (safer  in  terms  of  contagion  risk) 
home  deliveries,  requiring  the  modernisation  of  corresponding  delivery  and 
transport channels. 

105. However this is clearly an ongoing and developing situation, and more time will be 
needed to  gather and analyse data in  order to  grasp the full impact  of the current 
crisis on the behaviour of passengers and transport users. 

2.4.1  Air transport 

106. Aviation is one of the EU transport sectors whose activity has been the hardest hit 
by  the  COVID-19  pandemic,  due  to  supressed  demand  following  containment 
measures  taken  by  governments  –  including  travel  restrictions,  lockdowns  and 
quarantine  zones,  as  well  as  customers’  fear  of  contagion.  Widespread  flight 
cancellations for consecutive months have caused major disruptions for passengers, 
the aviation industry, the tourism sector and the EU economy as a whole.  

107. After a positive evolution  of the traffic situation following the removal  of border 
and  travel  restrictions  in  June,  recovery  dramatically  slowed  down  following  the 
reintroduction of travel restrictions across Europe. Traffic in  November 2020 was 
59%  below  2019  levels  in  terms  of  flights65.  In  2020,  until  mid-November  there 
was  a  loss  of  1.5  billion  passengers  at  European  airports66  across  the  network 
compared to 2019 levels. International passenger transport is likely to continue to 

64  The  EU  counts  nine  outermost  regions  -  French  Guiana,  Guadeloupe,  Martinique,  Mayotte,  Reunion  Island  and  Saint-Martin 
(France),  Azores  and  Madeira  (Portugal),  and  the  Canary  Islands  (Spain).  They  are  located  in  the  western  Atlantic  Ocean,  the 
Caribbean basin, the Amazonian forest and the Indian Ocean. In total, they are home to 4.8 million citizens. The special situation of 
the outermost regions is recognised under Article 349 TFEU. 
65 Source: Eurocontrol, traffic in mid-November (7-day moving average) 
66 Source: ACI 

32 

 
                                                      
be severely reduced due to lower demand and government restrictions in the next 
years  following  the  COVID-19  pandemic.  Experiences  from  earlier  network 
disruptions, such as the 9/11 terrorist attack in 2001 and the Icelandic volcanic ash 
incident in 2010, indicate that rebuilding may take a long time.  

108. It  must  be  underlined  that  there  is  a  strong  link  between  temporary  border  and 
travel  restrictions  and  the  resumption  of  traffic.  In  particular  quarantine 
requirements  led  to  a  sharp  drop  in  passenger  bookings,    although  some  other 
factors  such  as  squeezed  household  budgets,  uncertainty  over  ticket  refunds,  and 
fears of infection while travelling also  contributed. Travel demand  does therefore 
in general tend to reflect the existence or the severity of travel restrictions in place 
at national level, in particular if they are not co-ordinated between Member States. 
Ensuring  a  co-ordinated  approach  at  European  level  of  national  measures  to 
contain  the  COVID-19  pandemic  is  therefore  likely  to  substantially  improve 
growth. The same applies for intercontinental travel where closed borders or travel 
restrictions hamper travel. 

109. This  has affected every  branch of the wide aviation  value network, also  resulting 
e.g.  in  numerous  delays  and  cancellations  of  aircraft  orders,  leading  to  a  severe 
decrease in the aeronautics industry’s order books.  

110. According to Eurocontrol projections, air traffic growth volume in 2020 and 2021 
will  depend  on  the  ability  of  European  countries  to  coordinate  their  health  and 
sanitary measures.67 Overall, the Current Status Scenario by Eurocontrol envisaged 
a loss of 55% of flights (6 million) in 2020. According to IATA recovery to 2019 
level will not take place until 2024. 

111. Taking all of the above into account, there will be a total industry loss in revenues 
of  approximately  EUR  140  billion  during  2020  for  airlines,  airports  and  air 
navigation  service  providers.  As  a  result,  more  than  7  million  jobs  supported  by 
aviation  (including  tourism)  in  Europe  are  now  at  risk,  as  estimated  by  IATA.68 
The pressure on the sector has also resulted in raising the precariousness of work in 
the aviation sector.  

112. In  response  to  this  unprecedented  decline  in  passenger  air  travel,  the  European 
associations collectively representing the entire European aviation sector called for 
measures to restore the public’s confidence in air travel. To this end, they stressed 
the  need  for  an  effective  coordination  of  national  travel  restrictions  measures, 
based on a common set of criteria, data and guidelines provided by the European 
Centre  for  Disease  Prevention  and  Control  (ECDC)  and  the  European  Union 
Aviation  Safety  Agency  (EASA),  and  further  improvements  to  the  effective 
enforcement of passenger rights to ensure legal certainty in travel.69  

2.4.2  Waterborne transport 

113. International  freight  transport  is  affected  by  both  demand  and  supply  of  goods 
effects related to the pandemic. Continued and uninterrupted maritime services are 
of key strategic importance for the whole EU, with  75% of goods arriving to  the 
EU by sea. About 30% of all goods internally in the EU are transported by ships. 
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on global shipping, affecting all 
its segments from passenger ships to container ships and oil tankers. While some 

67 Covering EUROCONTROL’s 41 members, including the EU and third countries such as Turkey and Ukraine.  
68 IATA August update: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-08-13-01/  
69 European Aviation Round Table Report on the Recovery of European Aviation, November 2020. 

33 

 
                                                      
ports  have  restricted  passenger  services,  EU  ports  have  remained  open  for  cargo 
transport.  After  an  early  effect  of  Chinese  lockdown  measures  on  global  supply 
chains,  factory  output  has  been  picking-up  after  the  relaxation  of  containment 
measures.  

114. EMSA reported70 that the number of ship calls at  EU ports declined by 12.5% in 
the first 39 weeks of 2020 compared to the same period in the previous year. The 
most significantly affected sectors have been the cruises, passenger ships, roll-on-
roll-off-passenger and vehicle carriers. Meanwhile, the number of chemical tankers 
ship  calls  increased  in  comparison  with  2019  and  the  numbers  for  bulk  carriers, 
containerships, general cargo and oil tankers saw a limited decrease (up to 10%).  

115. The impact of the inland navigation sector is estimated to a total loss of turnover 
between  EUR  2.2  and  4.4  billion  considering  a  90%  reduction  in  passenger 
transport and 25-30% reduction in freight transport during the crisis.  Inland ports 
have observed  a decline  in  traffic due to  the decrease of activity in  seaports (e.g. 
container trade with China). 

116. Travel restrictions have also significantly reduced the number of passengers carried 
by  ferries,  leading  to  financial  difficulties  for  companies  that  provide  essential 
connections,  in  particular  to  islands  and  other  remote  regions.  In  order  to  ensure 
basic connectivity across the territories of the EU and ensure continuity of services, 
Member  States  have,  apart  from  other  support  measures,  also  put  in  place 
temporary  public  services  obligations  (“PSO”)  and/or  public  service  contracts 
(“PSC”) to replace or support services that become commercially unviable due to a 
sudden drop in passenger numbers.  

117. Severe decrease in the sea transport of passengers impacted also the flows of goods 
transported  on  ro-ro-passenger  ships  and  on  ferries,  whose  traffic  is  heavily 
dependent  on  the  revenues  derived  from  passenger  services.  If  demand  for 
passenger  and  personal  vehicles’  transport  remains  low  in  a  longer  term,  freight 
transport business by these ships may not be possible without public support. 

118. The cruise ship sector has also experienced severe operational losses. The capital 
value  of  the  cruise  ship  industry  reportedly  dropped  by  more  than  70%.  The 
majority  of  cruise  companies  stopped  operations,  at  the  same  time  looking  for 
means  to  increase  their  credit  capacity  to  manage  the  economic  impact.  The  re-
uptake  of  activities  has  been  limited,  both  as  regards  passengers  and  vessels,  as 
well as in geographical scope. The negative image of tourists and crew quarantined 
on  cruise  ships  during  the  pandemic  will  likely  have  a  longer-lasting  impact  on 
demand  for  this  service,  as  well  as  for  demand  for  new  cruise  ships,  of  which 
around 90% are built in Europe.  

119. In  the  maritime  sector,  the  impact  of  the  COVID-19  pandemic  has  reduced  not 
only  the  demand  for  transport  and  cargo  services,  but  also  the  ability  to  supply 
such  services.  It  highlighted  in  particular  the  substantial  consequences  for 
seafarers,  whose  working  conditions  severely  deteriorated.  Due 
travel 
restrictions  and  fewer  connections,  many  ship-owners  were  unable  to  conduct 
sufficient crew changes and repatriate maritime workers.  

to 

120. For all shipping segments with crew and passengers or persons on board, the issue 
of  crew  changes,  repatriation,  medical  care  and  other  preventive  and  protective 
measures  are  key  to  allow  as  uninterrupted  operations  as  possible.  Notable 
COVID-19  outbreaks  associated  with  shipping  crews  and  passengers  have 

70 http://www.emsa.europa.eu/news-a-press-centre/covid19-impact/download/6386/3967/23.html 

34 

 
                                                      
focussed  attention  on  this  issue.  The  social  partners,  ECSA  and  ETF  issued 
separate  public  statements  urging  authorities  to  facilitate  swift  and  safe  crew 
changes,  safe  berthing  places,  exemptions  from  levies  during  prolonged  lay-off 
period,  guarantee  safe  passage,  as  well  as,  of  course,  the  provision  of  personal 
protective equipment (PPE) to all working in the sector. 

121. The majority of seafarers employed on ships, regardless of the flag of the ships, are 
nationals from a limited number of labour-supplying countries; and certain traffic 
routes  and  coastal  States  globally  receive  a  disproportionately  large  volume  of 
incoming and outgoing vessels. In this context, the measures adopted by some third 
countries  have  had  an  impact  on  European  operations.  At  IMO  and  ILO  level, 
efforts are ongoing to provide a baseline of information sharing and respect for the 
basic needs of crew changing and repatriation.  

122. There  have  been  cases  of  social  unrest  on  board  ships  where  maritime  workers 
have  been  stranded  or  had  their  contracts  extended  beyond  the  limit  set  by  the 
Maritime  Labour  Convention,  200671,  with  no  possibility  to  repatriate.  The 
European  Commission  and  the  High  Representative  have  undertaken  extensive 
efforts  to  ensure maritime workers are recognised, globally, as essential  or “key” 
workers, can travel for work and repatriate after their contracts end. With COVID-
19  cases  rebounding,  variations  in  the  pandemic  situation  locally  and  globally  is 
proving difficult to reach a stable arrangement on this front. 

2.4.3  Road transport 

123. The  most  affected  segment  of  road  passenger  transport  has  been  international 
traffic, particularly coach tourism. After a period of partial reopening between July 
and November, some international coach operators have been recently scaling back 
again their services in some EU countries due to the second wave.  

124. Road  freight  transport  gradually  picked-up  starting  in  the  second  half  of  May, 
according to real time indicators, such as German truck toll activity and pollution 
levels.    By  mid-July,  German  truck  toll  activity  was  already  tracking  closely  its 
level over the same period of 2019, but has since failed to gain further momentum. 
Road traffic in France, Italy and Spain broadly flattened over July and September, 
stopping  short  of  a  full  recovery.  More  recently,  however,  road  traffic  in  both 
France  and  Italy  has  increased  somewhat  and  now  stands  around  10%  below  its 
values for the same period of last year.   

125. After major disruptions in road freight transport within the EU in the beginning of 
March,  the  Commission’s  Green  Lanes  initiative  has  improved  the  situation  at 
most  internal  borders.  In  November,  the  vast  majority  of  borders  continued  to 
comply with the 15 minutes waiting time mandated by the Green Lanes72. Border 
crossing  points  with  Romania  and  Bulgaria  continue  to  be  impacted  by  long 
queues.  Others  show  occasional  peaks  in  waiting  time  (Romania-Hungary, 
Croatia).  On  the  external  borders  of  the  EU,  there  continue  to  be  long  queues  at 
borders with Switzerland (which seem to be not COVID-related but due to customs 
checks). There is  a continued long waiting time  at  the Bulgaria-Serbia, Hungary-
Serbia,  Greece-Albania  borders.  In  particular,  Röszke-Horgoš  (Hungary-Serbia) 

71 Maritime Labour Convention, 2006, as amended (MLC, 2006) 
https://www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/en/f?p=NORMLEXPUB:91:0::NO::P91_SECTION:MLCA_AMEND_A2 
72  C(2020)  1897  final  Communication  “on  the  implementation  of  the  Green  Lanes  under  the  Guidelines  for  border  management 
measures to protect health and ensure the availability of goods and essential services” and COM(2020) 685 final Communication 
“upgrading the transport Green Lanes to keep the economy going during the COVID-19 pandemic resurgence” 

35 

 
                                                      
has  experienced  the  highest  waiting  times  since  commencing    monitoring  of 
waiting times. 

126. Compared  to  pre-crisis  levels,  most  Member  States  are  still  seeing  important 
decreases  in  demand  for  road  freight  transport.  The  IRU  estimates  the  goods 
transport losses to exceed EUR 800 billion globally73.  

127. Based on preliminary data from Member States, the Commission estimates that the 
number  of  road  fatalities  during  lockdown  measures  decreased  across  the  EU  in 
March  (-29%),  April  (-41%),  May  (-27%),  June  (-27%),  July  (-16%),  August  (-
16%)  and  September  (-14%)  compared  to  the  average  of  the  same  month  in  the 
previous  three  years74.  This  means  that  around  3  000  lives  fewer  have  been  lost.    
This  is  an  unprecedented  and  of  course  welcome  development,  although  the 
number  of  deaths  did  not  fall  significantly  in  all  Member  States  and  not  by  the 
same degree as the drop in traffic volumes. 

128. As  a  result  of  lower  traffic  volumes  compared  to  previous  expectations,  ratings 
agencies  have  re-assessed  negatively  the  outlook  of  a  number  of  Europe’s 
privately-owned toll road concessionaires.  

2.4.4  Rail transport 

129. Railways  have  experienced  significant  and  unexpected  disruption  due  to  the 
COVID-19 pandemic, with a huge drop in passenger mobility. During the peak of 
the  crisis  ridership  went  down  by  more  than  90%  in  several  countries  and  many 
international  connections  were  stopped.  After  the  drop  of  turnover  by  35% 
observed during the first semester, there has been a significant improvement of the 
situation  in  July  and  August  but  pre-crisis  levels  are  still  far  from  having  been 
reached  (July:  -28%  compared  to  same  month  of  previous  year;  August:  -27%). 
However,  the  trend  is  not  maintained  as  demonstrated  by  the  figures  of  turnover 
losses  in  September  with  -29%,  due  to  the  second  wave  of  the  pandemic  hitting 
countries across the EU and the expected impact on rail passenger travel. Smaller 
independent operators are particularly badly hit and, according to their association 
ALLRAIL,  have  so  far  not  benefited  from  State  aid  to  the  same  extent  as 
incumbent operators.  

130. Rail  freight  continued  to  run  reliably  throughout  the  pandemic,  ensuring  supply 
chains and suffering from much less disruption than other modes. Nonetheless, the 
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic caused an approximate average decline in rail 
freight  revenues  of  15%  across  the  EU-27  during  the  first  half  of  2020  and  lost 
revenues  of  about  EUR  48  million  per  week  with  a  total  estimated  loss  of  EUR 
1.25 billion accumulated over the first semester 2020. Rail infrastructure managers 
are  impacted  by  the  COVID-19  pandemic  due  to  the  reduction  in  traffic  and  the 
revenues it generates.75  

73 Based on information provided by IRU as part of their submission to the open public consultation on the Sustainable and Smart 
Mobility  Strategy,  due  to  the  COVID-19  pandemic  in  the  goods  road  transport  industry:  revenue  declined  by  40%  during  the 
confinement period (in comparison to 2019 figures); many transport operations such transport of automotive parts, clothing, flowers 
and construction materials have dramatically slowed by almost 100%; empty running increased by up to 40%; and new contracts 
have declined by 60-90%. 
74  This  is  confirmed  by  an  analysis  of  the  European  Transport  Safety  Council  (ETSC),  which  estimated,  based  on  data  from  25 
Member States, that road fatalities decreased by an average of 36% during lockdown measures in April. European Transport Safety 
Council: PIN report “The Impact of Covid-19 Lockdowns on Road Deaths in April 2020”, 9 July 2020 (https://etsc.eu/pin-report-
lockdowns-resulted-in-an-unprecedented-36-drop-in-road-deaths-in-the-eu/). 
75  Opinion  of  the  European  Economic  and  Social  Committee  (TEN/716-EESC-2020)  for  the  Proposal  for  a  Regulation  of  the 
European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  establishing  measures  for  a  sustainable  rail  market  in  view  of  the  COVID-19  pandemic 
[COM(2020) 260 final - 2020/0127 (COD)], Rapporteur-general: Alberto MAZZOLA, Plenary session: 553 - Jul 16, 2020 

36 

 
                                                      
 
131. Intermodal transport suffered from lower demand from its traditional markets. At 
the same time, it gained some new clients by demonstrating its potential for long 
distance,  Europe-wide  transport  of  goods,  with  the  local  (usually  around  50  km) 
distribution organised by lorries or vans from the terminals to distribution centres 
or  factories,  with  a  limited  human  interaction.  Adequate  network  of  multimodal 
terminals,  reliable  rail  (in  particular  the  Rail  Freight  Corridors76),  but  also  inland 
navigation and short sea shipping services are in this context essential. 

2.4.5  Urban transport 

132. Public transport operators have been severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic: they 
were  required  to  maintain  essential  services  in  operation  during  the  lockdown 
period and to restore services as movement restrictions eased.  

133. Public  transport  is  likely  to  continue  to  be  affected,  especially  in  regions  where 
quarantine measures have reappeared. As of 15 November, the mobility trends for 
public transport hubs (subway, bus and train stations) are -46 % in Netherlands, -
45%  in  Italy,  -28% in Spain, Germany  and  -46% in France  compared to the pre-
pandemic baseline.77 

134. Nevertheless,  most  public  transport  companies  –  whether  public  or  private  – 
maintained a high level of service where possible (between 70 and 100 percent of 
the  normal  offer).  Many  of  those  who  must  continue  commuting  rely  on  public 
transport  systems,  which  are  uniquely  positioned  to  carry  large  volumes  of 
passengers through busy urban areas. Even during the pandemic, public transport 
has  remained  the  backbone  of  sustainable  mobility  and  essential  to  economic 
recovery. Although there is new and growing evidence that public transport riders 
do not face higher infection risk than non-riders78, public transport authorities have 
had to take supplementary measures for disinfection and mask provision to reduce 
risk for workers and passengers alike, incurring extra costs.      

135. In  addition,  the  need  to  ensure  physical  distancing  severely  reduced  capacity, 
which led the public authorities in several countries to appeal to citizens not to use 
public transport (for instance to keep it free for essential workers and those without 
alternatives).  This  appears to  have contributed to  a general  public concern about 
the safety of using public transport during the pandemic, and continued stagnation 
in its use in many cities.     

136. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a shift to individual modes 
of  transport,  with  walking  and  cycling  often  being  the  preferred  mode  in  many 
cities, combining the ‘active’ element (physical exercise) with the travel objective. 
This has resulted in additional health benefits thanks to increased physical activity, 
reducing  a  key  risk  factor  of  non-communicable  diseases,  such  as  cancer  and 
cardiovascular  diseases.  Cities  have  also  been  struggling  to  accommodate  the 
necessary  distancing  rules  due  to  insufficient  space  for  pedestrians  and  cyclists79 
and many of them have therefore taken action to implement temporary measures, 

https://www.eesc.europa.eu/fr/our-work/opinions-information-reports/opinions/proposal-regulation-european-parliament-and-
council-establishing-measures-sustainable-rail-market-view-covid-19-pandemic 
76    In accordance with Regulation (EU) 913/2010, Rail Freight Corridors have been established in the EU to ensure a good quality 
rail network for competitive freight. 
77 The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. Google 
Community Mobility Reports: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/  
78 https://blogs.worldbank.org/transport/fight-against-covid-19-public-transport-should-be-hero-not-villain 
79 One of the revelations of the pandemic was the disproportionate distribution of public space in favour of motorised traffic, with 
cars accounting for ~30-40% of journeys but occupying ~70-80% of public space in European cities (COVID-19 SUMP Practitioner 
Briefing, https://www.eltis.org/sites/default/files/covid-19_sumppractitionersbriefing_final.pdf).  

37 

 
                                                                                                                                                            
such as the widening of pavements and the roll-out of temporary cycle lanes. Many 
cities are also now making these temporary lanes permanent to try to maintain or 
further  improve  active  mobility  flows,  also  to  help  improve  public  health  and 
reduce mortality caused by non-communicable diseases. However, new individual 
solutions  accessible  for  those  with  disabilities  and  reduced  mobility  have  not  yet 
materialised and existing ones are expensive and limited in offer. 

137. A  drop  in  air  pollution  in  cities  during  the  first  period  of  lockdown  measures  is 
confirmed  by  data  published  by  the  European  Environment  Agency80.  As  first 
round  of  lockdown  measures  eased,  there  were  increasing  indications  that  more 
people are using private cars, partly because of continued concerns about the safety 
of  public  transport.  This  led  to  a  return  to  congestion,  poorer  air  quality  and 
increased  road  safety  risks.  Therefore  some  cities  in  Europe,  e.g.  Milan  or 
Brussels,  are  re-thinking  their  sustainable  urban  mobility  plans  in  order  to 
discourage the use of private cars. In addition, the EU High Level Group on Road 
Safety has agreed on common principles to address road safety concerns, including 
strengthened enforcement, measures to restore confidence in public transport, and 
continued investment  in road safety, including in  order to  make temporary  safety 
measures (adopted during lockdown) permanent, such as “pop-up bike lanes”81. 

138. New shared mobility services, such as e-bikes, e-scooters, shared cars, experienced 
drastic  reductions  of  service  in  quarantine  areas  and  in  several  cities  have  been 
slow to re-emerge even as movement restrictions were raised. The business models 
of many companies offering shared mobility services already involved long periods 
of loss-making and some of them may be driven (close) to bankruptcy or to change 
their business model.  

80https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/air-pollution-goes-down-as 
81 Road safety measures in the COVID transitional era  – common High Level Group principles as we exit the crisis, 2 July 2020 
(https://ec.europa.eu/transport/road_safety/road-safety-measures-covid-transitional-era-common-high-level-group-principles-we-
exit-crisis_en) 

38 

 
 
 
 
                                                      
3  KEY POLICY DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE LAST DECADE  

139. The  2011  White  Paper  for  transport82  defined  a  vision  for  a  competitive  and 
sustainable  transport  system,  the  implementation  of  which  required  an  efficient 
framework  for  transport  users  and  operators,  an  early  deployment  of  new 
technologies and the development of adequate infrastructure. It set the paramount 
goal  of  European  transport  policy  as  helping  establish  a  system  that  underpins 
European  economic  progress,  enhances  competitiveness  and  offers  high  quality 
mobility services while using resources more efficiently. 

140. This section highlights some of the additional measures that have been put in place 
in the key policy areas over the last decade. Nevertheless, it needs to be recognised 
that  significant  challenges  remain,  as  described  in  the  subsequent  sections, 
particularly  in  relation  to  meeting  the  need  for  sharper  CO2  reductions  from 
transport  in  order  to  reach  economy-wide  climate  neutrality  by  2050  and  the 
increased ambition for 2030 of at least 55% GHG emission reduction.  

3.1  Sustainability 

141. On 28 November 2018, the Commission adopted a strategic long-term vision for 
climate-neutral  economy  by  205083,  engaging  all  sectors  of  the  economy  and 
society,  to  achieve  the  transition  to  a  climate-neutral  economy.  The  transport 
sector,  being  one  of  the  main  sources  of  GHG  emissions  in  the  economy  was 
identified  as  playing  an  important  role  in  this  transition.  The  climate  neutrality 
objective  was  endorsed  by  the  European  Parliament84  and  subsequently  the 
European Council85. 

142. The  European  Green  Deal  of  December  2019  sets  a  strategic  framework  for  a 
climate-neutral EU economy by 2050.  It sets a high level of ambition for climate 
neutrality and healthy environment, accelerating the shift to sustainable and smart 
mobility, and delivering a zero pollution ambition for a toxic-free environment and 
the  transition  to  a  circular  economy  while  leaving  no  one  behind.  To  this  end,  it 
calls  for  a  90%  reduction  in  transport  emissions  by  2050.  Priority  actions  of  the 
Green  Deal  for  a  shift  to  sustainable  and  smart  mobility  include  boosting 
multimodal  transport,  support  the  deployment  of  automated  and  connected 
mobility  solutions  across  modes,  better  addressing  external  costs  of  transport 
activities  through  pricing,  ramping  up  the  production  and  deployment  of 
sustainable  alternative  transport  fuels  and  reducing  pollution  from  transport, 
especially in cities86, through for instance stricter air pollutant standards.  

82  COM(2011)  144  final  White  Paper  -  Roadmap  to  a  Single  European  Transport  Area  –  Towards  a  competitive  and  resource 
efficient transport system 
83 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council, the European Economic 
and  Social  Committee,  the  Committee  of  the  Regions  and  the  European  Investment  Bank  ‘A  Clean  Planet  for  all  A  European 
strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy’, COM(2018) 773 final. 
84 European Parliament resolution of 14 March 2019 on climate change  – a European strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, 
modern, competitive and climate neutral economy in accordance with the Paris Agreement 
85 European Council Conclusions of 12 December 2019 (EUCO 29/19) 
86  New  technologies,  sustainable  solutions  and disruptive  innovation are  critical  to  achieve  the  objectives  of  the  European  Green 
Deal. Four ‘Green Deal Missions’ are envisaged under Horizon Europe to deliver large-scale changes in areas such as adaptation to 
climate change, oceans, cities and soil, bringing together a wide range of stakeholders including regions and citizens to accelerate 
the transition to a sustainable future. The envisaged climate-neutral and smart Cities Mission could be particularly relevant in this 
context  as  one  of  the  strategic  priority  areas  for  joint  action  to  accomplish  decarbonisation  within  cities  relies  on  “an  efficient 
mobility for all, clean, safe and connected”, including among others carbon free propulsion systems, new energy efficient vehicles, 
smart multimodal and integrated transport systems and solutions. 

39 

 
 
                                                      
143. In  March  2020  the  Commission  adopted  a  Communication  on  a  new  Circular 
Economy  Action  Plan87  setting  a  future-oriented  agenda  for  achieving  a  cleaner 
and more competitive Europe. The development of transport infrastructures and the 
production  of  different  types  of  transport  vehicles  (airplanes,  cars,  trains,  ships 
etc.) require the use of substantial volumes of materials. The treatment of the end-
of-life  stage  of  these  vehicles  also  raises  important  environmental  challenges, 
while  representing  opportunities  for  the  recovery  of  precious  resources,  notably 
critical  raw  materials.  There  is  a  need  for  the  transport  sector  to  move  to  more 
circular  models,  notably  through  business  models  for  mobility,  green  public 
procurement,  changes  in  the  design  of  vehicles  and  improvements  in  their 
recycling.  

144. In  May  2020,  the  Commission  adopted  its  Biodiversity  Strategy  for  2030.88  The 
strategy  introduces  general  goals  on  protection  and  restoration  of  nature  and 
biodiversity such legal protection of a minimum of 30% of the EU’s land area and 
30%  of  the  EU’s  sea  area,  including  10%  under  strict  protection,  as  well  as 
adoption of a legally binding instrument on restoration. Additionally, the Strategy 
introduces  specific  goals  such  as  restoration  of  freshwater  ecosystems  through 
recreation of at least 25,000 km free-flowing rivers by 2030, reduction of nitrogen 
pollution,  reduction  of  impacts  from  invasive  alien  species  and  integration  of 
true  Trans-European  Nature  Network. 
ecological  corridors  as  part  of  a 
Achievement of all of these  goals  will require close involvement of the transport 
sector at the stage of planning, operation or upgrading of transport infrastructure. 

145. In September 2020 the Commission adopted the Communication on Critical Raw 
Materials Resilience89 setting out an action plan to ensure a secure and sustainable 
supply of raw materials for a wide range of industrial ecosystems. Low and zero-
emission vehicles will increase demand for critical raw materials like lithium and 
cobalt  in  batteries  and  rare  earths  for  electric  motors.  Improved  circular  use  of 
materials, developing EU sourcing and diversifying sourcing from third countries 
is a necessity for achieving resilient value chains in the transport sector.  

146. The  2030  Climate  Target  Plan  of  September  2020  set  out  that  all  transport 
sectors  -  road,  rail,  aviation  and  waterborne  transport  -  will  have  to  contribute  to 
the  economy-wide  at  least  55%  GHG  reduction  effort.  A  smart  combination  of 
vehicle/vessels/aircraft efficiency improvements, fuel mix changes notably through 
increased  uptake  of  renewable  and  low-carbon  fuels,  greater  use  of  sustainable 
transport  modes  and  multi-modal  solutions,  digitalisation  for  smart  traffic  and 
mobility management, infrastructure pricing and other incentives can reduce GHG 
emissions and at the same time significantly address noise pollution and improve 
air quality. In addition, more use of sustainable options, such as an increased use of 
existing urban bus and rail services can reduce emissions, congestion and pollution 
while improving road safety, especially in urban areas.  

147. In  fact,  the  shift  towards  low-emission  mobility  was  already  an  objective  in  the 
Transport White Paper of 2011 ‘Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area’90 

87 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council, the European Economic 
and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions ‘A new Circular Economy Action Plan For a cleaner and more competitive 
Europe’, COM(2020) 98 final. 
88 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee 
and the Committee of the Regions, ‘EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 - Bringing nature back into our lives’, COM(2020) 380 final. 
89 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee 
and the Committee of the Regions, ‘Critical Raw Materials Resilience: Charting a Path towards greater Security and Sustainability’, 
COM(2020) 474 final. 
90 Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system, COM(2011) 144 
final. 

40 

 
                                                      
and  was  supported  by  various  initiatives.  As  shown  in  the  evaluation  report,  the 
White  Paper  and  its  implementation  has  contributed  effectively  to  putting 
European transport on the path of reducing in GHG emissions by 2030 and beyond. 
However, this is no longer sufficient. Given the climate emergency and the revised 
emission reduction target for 2030 as well as the objective of carbon neutrality in 
2050, significantly increased mitigation efforts will be needed. 

148. The European Strategy for Low-Emission Mobility91 was adopted in July 2016 
to  respond  to  increasing  mobility  needs  of  people  and  goods,  while  remaining 
competitive and shifting towards low-emission mobility. The Strategy reconfirmed 
and strengthened the 2011 White Paper goals and proposed an action plan: by mid-
century, GHG emissions from transport need to be at least 60% lower than in 1990 
and be firmly on the path towards zero. Harmful emissions of air pollutants need to 
be drastically reduced without delay.  

149. The  European  Commission  swiftly  adopted  proposals  in  the  Action  Plan  of  the 
Strategy,  notably  the  “Clean  Energy  for  all  Europeans”  package  in  November 
2016,  and  three  Mobility  Packages  in  May  2017,  November  2017  and  May 
201892. Elements of the first Mobility Package aimed to improve competition and 
working conditions  in  the road freight  sector, contribute to  better road safety and 
reduction of environmental impacts has been adopted and entered into force on 20 
August 2020. 

150. The second Mobility Package, focussing on clean mobility, included the proposal 
for  amending  the  Combined  Transport  Directive  (92/106/EEC)  93which  is  a  key 
EU measure to directly support modal shift from road-only transport to rail, inland 
waterways  and  short  sea  transport.  However,  the  negotiations  in  the  European 
Parliament  and  the  Council  led  to  draft  amendments  which,  if  adopted,  would 
significantly  reduce  the  effectiveness  of  the  Commission  proposal.  Therefore  the 
Commission decided to withdraw the 2017 proposal.  

151. The  second  Mobility  Package  further  responded  to  the  challenge  of  making 
mobility clean, competitive and connected through a combination of demand- and 
supply-side measures on low-emission mobility. In concrete terms, it encompassed 
a  number  of  measures  with  the  aim  to  enable  a  transition  towards  low  and  zero 
emission  mobility,  such  as  a  reform  of  the  Clean  Vehicles  Directive,  new  CO2 
standards  for  cars  and  vans,  or  a  follow-up  to  the  Action  Plan  related  to  the 
Alternative Fuels Directive. 

152. The third Mobility Package put forward an integrated policy for the future of road 
safety. It included a Strategic Action Plan on Road Safety and proposals on vehicle 
and infrastructure safety. The package also contained the first ever CO2 standards 
for  heavy-duty  vehicles,  a  strategic  Action  Plan  for  the  development  and 
manufacturing  of  batteries  in  Europe  and  a  strategy  on  connected  and  automated 
mobility. 

91 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee 
and the Committee of the Regions ‘A European Strategy for Low-Emission Mobility’, COM(2016) 501 final. 
92 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/road/road-initiatives_en 
93 A related point concerns amendments proposed by the co-legislators to Regulation (EU) 2020/1055 of the European Parliament 
and of the Council of 15 July 2020 amending Regulations (EC) No 1071/2009, (EC) No 1072/2009 and (EU) No 1024/2012 with a 
view to adapting them to developments in the road transport sector, in the context of  the first Mobility Package. This Regulation 
authorises  Member  States  to  derogate  from  Article  4  of  Directive  92/106/EEC  “where  necessary  to  avoid  misuse  of  the  latter 
provision through the provision of unlimited and continuous services consisting in initial or final road legs within a host Member 
State that form part of combined transport operations between Member States”. In that case, Member States may provide that the 
cabotage rules of Regulation (EC) 1072/2009 apply to hauliers when they carry out initial and/or final road haulage legs within the 
Member State concerned. According to Article 4 of Regulation (EU) 2020/1055, this rule will apply from 21 February 2022 The 
Commission has announced that it will conduct an impact assessment regarding this aspect (See Council document 7045/20 ADD 2 
of 1 April 2020). 

41 

 
                                                      
153. The Commission also adopted an Urban Mobility Package in 2013, to help cities 
in  their  transition  towards  sustainable  urban  mobility  by  reinforced  support  at 
European,  national  and  regional  levels.  It  has  the  concept  of  sustainable  urban 
mobility  planning  (SUMP)  at  its  centre,  with  dedicated  European  guidelines 
adopted  later  on.  It  has  proven  an  effective  and  increasingly  popular  tool, 
implemented in cities in a large number of countries, and not only in the EU.  

154. Key  European  legislation  has  been  adopted  to  support  the  uptake  of  alternative 
fuels, including electricity, over the last decade. This includes the directive on the 
deployment  of  alternative  fuels  infrastructure94,  which  requires  Member  States  to 
set  up  long-term  National  Policy  Frameworks  (NPFs)  for  the  development  of 
markets for alternative fuels and the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure. 
It also requires the rollout of alternative fuels infrastructure along the core network 
of  the  Trans-European  Transport  Network  (TEN-T)  and  its  urban  nodes  -  with 
milestones for 2020, 2025 and 2030 for different alternative fuels infrastructure for 
roads and ports. The Directive sets common technical specifications for recharging 
and  refuelling  stations 
interoperability  and  adequate  consumer 
information. In parallel, financial instruments have been established to support the 
uptake  of  alternatively  fuelled  vehicles/vessels  and  their  infrastructure,  most 
notably through the Connection Europe Facility.     

to  ensure 

155. The Commission also adopted an action plan on alternative fuels infrastructure95 to 
support  the  implementation  of  the  Alternative  Fuels  Infrastructure  Directive  and 
mobilised considerable investment of public and private market actors through the 
Connecting  Europe  Facility  (CEF),  the  CEF  blending  facility  and  the  CEF  debt 
instrument.  Since  2014,  more  than  EUR  6.8  billion  of  investments  were  thereby 
supported  for  alternative  fuels  infrastructure  and  mobile  assets,  the  vast  majority 
being for infrastructure.  In particular the  Blending Call for proposals  launched in 
2017/2018 aimed at combining grants with bank lending. Moreover, considerable 
investment  has  been  made  in  research  and  development  to  support  progress  with 
technological and non-technological innovation. In this context, an important role 
is  played  by  transport-related  research  and  innovation  partnerships.  These  are 
supported  by  and  coordinated  with  European  research  and  innovation  on  more 
sustainable alternative fuels.     

156. In 2019 the co-legislators adopted the Clean Energy for All Europeans package 
that  contained  a  number  of  legislative  acts  supporting  the  uptake  of  alternative 
fuels,  including  renewable  and  low-carbon  fuels.  The  revised  renewables  energy 
directive  (RED  II)  sets  a  14%  target  for  2030  for  the  use  of  renewable  transport 
fuels.  The  Energy  Performance  of  Buildings  Directive  (EPBD)  requires  the 
installation  of  charging  points  or  related  pre-cabling  in  all  new  office  and 
apartment  buildings  and  in  those  going  through  major  renovations.  Finally,  the 
electricity directive96 requires Member States to provide a framework to facilitate 
the  connection  of  recharging  points  to  the  distribution  network  and  Distribution 
System Operators to cooperate with the undertakings that own, develop, operate of 
manage  recharging  points  for  electric  vehicles.  It  also  supports  the  cost-efficient 
integration  of  electric  vehicles  into  the  electricity  system  by  laying  the  basis  for 

94 Directive 2014/94/EU 
95 Communication form the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee 
and the Committee of the Regions Towards the broadest use of alternative fuels - an Action Plan on Alternative Fuels Infrastructure 
under  Article  10(6)  of  Directive  2014/94/EU,  including  the  assessment  of  national  policy  frameworks  under  Article  10(2)  of 
Directive 2014/94/EU (COM (2017) 0652 final) 
96 Regulation (EU) 2019/943 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 5 June 2019 on the internal market for electricity, OJ 
L 158, 14.6.2019, p. 54–124. 

42 

 
                                                      
enabling  smart  charging  and  setting  a  framework  for  the  development  of  bi-
directional charging (car batteries feeding electricity into the grid).  

157. As  part  of  the  Mobility  Packages,  emission  reduction  of  GHG  and  air  pollutants 
from road transport have been strengthened by the CO2 standards for new cars, 
vans  and  heavy  goods  vehicles,  by  the  Clean  Vehicles  Directive97  which  relies 
on  public  procurement  rules;  and  by  the  deployment  of  recharging  infrastructure 
for  electric  vehicles  and  refuelling  stations  for  fuel-cell  vehicles  and  multimodal 
travel information services supported by digital tools and data sharing.  

158. In 2019, legislation was adopted with stricter CO2 emission performance standards 

for cars as well as for light and heavy duty vehicles from 2025 and 2030.  

159. The  weights  and  dimensions  directive98  was  revised  in  2015  and  provides  for 
derogations  on  the  maximal  lengths  to  make  heavy  goods  vehicles  greener  by 
improving  their  aerodynamic  performance.  Derogations  on  weights  are  also 
allowed  for  vehicles  powered  by  alternative  fuels.  The  directive  was  modified 
again in 2019 to allow manufacturers to commercialise such vehicles already from 
September  2020.  This  package  was  completed  by  implementing  rules  on  the 
vehicle approval legislation. 

160. The  revision  of  the  Eurovignette  Directive  proposed  by  the  Commission  in  2017 
aims at further implementing the “user and polluter pay” principles, by providing 
that all road  charging schemes applied to  heavy  duty vehicles reflect  the level  of 
CO2 emissions. These revised rules should serve as an incentive for users to invest 
in less polluting vehicles. 

161. In the past decade, the EU has adopted a number of essential policy instruments to 
address the environmental footprint of aviation. These instruments, are grouped in 
a  so-called  “basket  of  measures”,  namely  market-based  measures  such  as 
emissions  trading,  research  and  development  for  greener  aircraft  design  and 
technology  (CO2  standards,  Clean  Sky),  more  efficient  air  traffic  management 
operations (Single European Sky and SESAR), and the use of sustainable aviation 
fuels. 

162. CO2  emissions  from  aviation  in  the  EU  have  been  included  in  the  EU  emissions 
trading system (EU ETS) since 2012. Under the EU ETS, all airlines operating in 
Europe,  European  and  non-European  alike,  are  required  to  monitor,  report  and 
verify  their  emissions,  and  to  surrender  allowances  against  those  emissions. 
Aircraft operators receive tradeable allowances covering on average, almost half of 
emissions  from  their  flights.  It  is  estimated  that  between  2013  and  2019,  a  net 
saving  of  more  than  160  Mt  CO2  has  been  achieved  through  the  inclusion  of 
aviation  in  the  EU  ETS.  The  auctioning  of  allowances  to  the  aviation  sector  has 
moreover  generated  revenues  which  have  been  used  in  part  for  climate-  and 
energy-related  purposes  including  the  Innovation  Fund  for  demonstration  of 
innovative  low-carbon  technologies.  The  EU  ETS  also  contains  incentives  to 
promote the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF). For the time being, the scope 
is  limited  to  intra-EEA  flights,  with  a  “stop-the-clock”  provision,  as  regards 
outbound  to  and  incoming  flights  from  non-EEA  countries,  in  the  EU  ETS 

97 Directive (EU) 2019/1161 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 June 2019 amending Directive 2009/33/EC on the 
promotion  of  clean  and  energy-efficient  road  transport  vehicles  (Text  with  EEA  relevance.)  PE/57/2019/REV/2  OJ  L  188, 
12.7.2019, p. 116–130 
98 Directive (EU) 2015/719 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 April 2015 amending Council Directive 96/53/EC 
laying  down  for  certain  road  vehicles  circulating  within  the  Community  the  maximum  authorised  dimensions  in  national  and 
international traffic and the maximum authorised weights in international traffic, OJ L 115, 6.5.2015, p. 1–10. 

43 

 
                                                      
Directive  which  is  valid  until  the  end  of  2023.  This  provision  was  intended  to 
provide momentum for a global market-based mechanism. 

163. In  2016,  the  EU  played  a  leading  role  in  the  adoption  by  the  International  Civil 
Aviation Organization (ICAO) of the first ever sectoral scheme regulating CO2, the 
Carbon  Offsetting  and  Reduction  Scheme  for  International  Aviation  (CORSIA). 
All EU Member States will participate in the pilot-phase of the scheme, which will 
start  in  2021,  with  the  aim  to  offset  growth  in  emissions  beyond  2020  levels99, 
without  prejudice  to  the  upcoming  revision  of  the  EU  ETS  Directive  as  regards 
aviation. Depending on participation and quality of offsets used, at global level, the 
ICAO  CORSIA  scheme  could  mitigate  up  to  2.5  billion  tonnes  of  CO2  and 
generate  up  to  approximately  USD  40  billion  of  climate  financing  by  2035.  The 
Commission  is  assessing  different  policy  options  for  a  legislative  proposal  to 
implement further aspects of CORSIA in the EU, through amending the EU ETS 
Directive. 

164. The EU has also adopted new standards for aircraft CO2 emissions, which entered 
into force in 2019100. These standards, which follow the global standards adopted 
by ICAO in 2017, provide additional requirements into the design process to focus 
on fuel efficiency. Also the adoption of new aircraft engine non-volatile Particulate 
Matter (nvPM) standards in ICAO was supported by the EU. 

165. To  develop  the  green  and  cutting-edge  aircraft  technology  of  the  future,  the  EU 
relies  on  the  Clean  Sky  Joint  Undertaking.  With  a  budget  of  EUR  4  billion  and 
composed of over 600 entities from 27 countries, the Clean Sky 2 initiative (2014-
2024)  was  designed  to  build  on  the  Clean  Sky  1,  which  aimed  to  develop 
technologies with reduced CO2, NOx and noise emissions.  

166. The Single European Sky framework aims to make European skies more efficient, 
and can deliver important environmental benefits. The SESAR project, sponsored 
by  the  EU  and  the  aeronautical  industry,  contributes  to  develop  and  deploy 
innovative ATM solutions with a potential to further reduce emissions. In 2013, the 
Commission proposed to complete the SES through amendments that could allow 
to decrease emissions up to 10%.  However, with no progress on this proposal, the 
Commission  presented  an  amended  proposal  on  22  September  2020101,  which  is 
expected to facilitate discussions between the co-legislators. 

167. Recognising the need for long-term sustainability of aviation and the commitment 
to continue efforts to reduce aviation sector’s negative environmental impacts, the 
European associations collectively representing the entire European aviation called 
for  an  EU  Pact  for  Sustainable  Aviation.  Through  collaboration  between  all 
stakeholders in the aviation eco-system and policy-makers, the Pact is to contribute 
to  the implementation  of the European  Green Deal,  by  reaching the objectives of  
significant CO2 emission reductions by 2030 and net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 
from all flights within and departing from the EU. The Pact will also consider the 
feasibility  of  making  2019  the  peak  year  for  CO2  emissions  from  European 
aviation  while  enabling  the  sector  to  continue  delivering  its  social  and  economic 
benefits.102  

99 Following the major impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on international aviation, ICAO decided to use, during CORSIA’s pilot 
phase from 2021 to 2023, the CO2 emissions of year 2019 as the baseline beyond which the growth of emissions from operators 
concerned will be offset. 
100  Commission  Delegated  Regulation  (EU)  2019/897  of  12 March 2019  amending  Regulation  (EU)  No  748/2012  as  regards  the 
inclusion of risk-based compliance verification in Annex I and the implementation of requirements for environmental protection  
101 COM(2020) 577 and COM(2020) 579 accompanied by SWD(2020) 187 
102 European Aviation Round Table Report on the Recovery of European Aviation, November 2020. 

44 

 
                                                      
168. Tackling maritime emissions is of key importance to reach the goals of the Paris 
Agreement  as  the  share  of  shipping  emissions  in  global  anthropogenic  emissions 
has  increased  from  2.8%  in  2012  to  2.9%  in  2018.  In  addition,  international 
shipping  emissions  are  expected  to  grow  quickly  without  the  implementation  of 
appropriate policies at all levels.  

169. At  EU  level,  following  up  on  the  2011  EU  White  Paper  on  Transport,  the 
Commission adopted a strategy on the decarbonisation of shipping in 2013, calling 
for  a  gradual  approach  in  the  EU,  starting  with  an  EU  monitoring,  reporting  and 
verification  (MRV)  scheme,  which  was  implemented  through  Regulation  (EU) 
2015/757  on  the  monitoring,  reporting  and  verification  of  CO2  emissions  from 
maritime transport. In 2018, the revised Emission Trading System Directive (EU) 
2018/410 calls for “action from the IMO or the Union to start from 2023, including 
preparatory  work  on  adoption  and  implementation  and  due  consideration  being 
given  by  all  stakeholders”.  In  2019,  the  European  Green  Deal  has  outlined 
measures  to  be  developed,  including  a  proposal  to  extend  European  emissions 
trading to  the maritime sector and legislative options to  boost the production  and 
uptake  of  sustainable  alternative  fuels  for  the  different  transport  modes.  In  2020, 
the Commission published its first annual report on the monitoring, reporting and 
verification of CO2 emissions from ships, which confirmed that maritime transport 
is  a substantial  CO2 emitter.  In addition,  the Climate Target  Plan communication 
confirmed that, in accordance with its international commitment to economy-wide 
action  under  the  Paris  Agreement,  the  EU  should  include  at  least  intra-EU 
maritime transport in the EU ETS. 

170. At the international level, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) agreed in 
2018  to  a  first  quantitative  target:  to  peak  GHG  emissions  from  international 
shipping as soon as possible and to reduce total annual GHG emissions by at least 
50% by 2050 compared to 2008 (to be reviewed in 2023), while pursuing efforts to 
achieve  full  decarbonisation  as  soon  as  possible  in  this  century  and  following  a 
pathway  of  CO2  emissions  reduction  consistent  with  the  Paris  Agreement 
temperature  goals.  It  also  sets  the  target  to  reduce  the  carbon  intensity  of 
international  shipping by at  least  40% by 2030,  pursuing efforts  towards 70% by 
2050, compared to 2008. The EU is closely involved in work to develop measures 
for  reaching  these  objectives  at  IMO  level  as  shipping  remains  a  fundamentally 
global business. 

171. Previously,  the  IMO's  Marine  Environment  Protection  Committee  (MEPC) 
adopted  in  2011  a  package  of  technical  measures  for  new  ships  and  operational 
reduction  measures  for  all  ships.  This  package  was  composed  of  two  main 
measures:  the Energy Efficiency Design  Index (EEDI), which requires new ships 
to  comply  with  minimum  mandatory  energy  efficiency  performance  levels, 
increasing over time through different phases; and the Ship Energy Efficiency Plan 
(SEEMP),  which  establishes  a  mechanism  for  shipowners  to  improve  the  energy 
efficiency  of  both  new  and  existing  ships  using  operational  measures  such  as 
weather  routing,  trim  and  draught  optimization,  speed  optimization,  just-in-time 
arrival in ports, etc. The regulations entered into force on 1 January 2013 and apply 
to  all  ships  of  400  gross  tonnage  and  above,  irrespective  of  flag  and  ownership. 
These measures are the first ever mandatory global GHG reduction regime for an 
entire industry sector103. 

103 http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/GHG-Emissions.aspx 

45 

 
                                                      
172. As  regards  air  quality,  in  2016  the  IMO  confirmed  the  entry  into  force  of  the 
stricter  0.5%  global  sulphur  limit  (down  from  3.5%)  in  marine  fuels  from  1 
January 2020. EU action was decisive in securing this decision. This framework is 
anticipated in the EU Sulphur Directive of 2012, which also contains tighter limits 
in  the  emission  control  areas  established  in  the  Baltic,  North  Sea  and  English 
Channel. The fuel standards successfully reduced sulphur oxides in these protected 
areas  established  by  the  IMO,  and  are  instrumental  in  further  reducing  emission 
pollutants across all EU waters as of January 2020. Similar low emission areas are 
currently  envisaged  by  the  Mediterranean  Countries  under  the  Barcelona 
Convention. The Commission will continue to engage with Mediterranean coastal 
states104  to  push  for  the  creation  of  new  Emission  Control  Areas  to  protect  the 
health  of  coastal  citizens,  their  environment  as  well  as  sea-related  economic 
activities from NOx and other air shipping emissions. 

173.  Regulation  2016/1628105  on  non-road  mobile  machinery  was  adopted  in  2016 
under  which  new  engines  for  inland  waterway  vessels  have  to  meet  stricter 
pollutant  emission  limits  from  2019  for  engines  smaller  than  300  KW,  and  2020 
for engine bigger than 300 KW, respectively.      

Since  2017,  the  Commission  (DG  REFORM)  manages  the  Structural  Reform 
Support  Programme (SRSP) for technical  support  projects  in  EU Member States, 
with a budget of EUR 222.8 million until 2020. Under the SRSP, Member States 
can request  support to  implement  reforms  in  a  wide range of areas, including for 
building  sustainable  and  competitive  economies.  In  the  area  of  sustainable  and 
smart mobility, Member States have received technical support, among others, for 
preparing  regulations  on  sustainable  mobility;  performing  gap  analyses  of  a 
national  policy  frameworks  for  alternative  fuel  infrastructure  in  transport; 
improving  inland  navigations  and  traffic  conditions  in  a  major  port  area;  and 
supporting new transport and mobility masterplans. The Commission has proposed 
a  new  Technical  Support  Instrument  as  part  of  the  2021-2027  Multiannual 
Financial  Framework  so  as  to  continue  provide  its  support  to  improve  Member 
States’  administrative  capacity  to  design,  develop  and  implement  reforms, 
including in the area of sustainable and smart mobility. 

In  2018,  the  Commission  also  issued  a  Communication  on  the  principles  of 
subsidiarity and proportionality106. It noted that “it is essential that the 41 national 
Parliament  chambers,  74  regional  legislative  assemblies,  the  280  regions  and  the 
80  000  local  authorities,  who  are  at  the  forefront  of  implementing  EU  laws,  are 
more  fully  engaged  in  the  policy  process.  Active  subsidiarity  and  a  new  way  of 
working with these entities will help deliver policies that work while strengthening 
the understanding and ownership of what the Union does.” 

3.2  Digitalisation  

174. As  explained  in  section  2.3.3,  digitalisation  in  transport  can  bring  huge 
improvements  in  efficiency,  safety  and  sustainability.  This  includes  a  better 
organisation and integration of transport modes towards efficient multimodal door-

104 United Nations Environment Programme/MED Decision IG.24/8 ‘ Road Map for a Proposal for the Possible Designation of the 
Mediterranean Sea, as a whole, as an Emission Control Area for Sulphur Oxides Pursuant to the International Convention for  the 
Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) Annex VI, within the framework of the Barcelona Convention’. 
105 Article 4:  Engine categories 
106 COM(2018) 703 final “The principles of subsidiarity and proportionality: Strengthening their role in the EU's policymaking” 

46 

 
                                                      
to-door transport and by progressively introducing new technology, which has the 
potential to reduce safety risks caused by human error in the longer term.  

175. Research  and  innovation  programmes  (especially  Horizon  2020107  and  the 
European  Regional  Development  Fund)  have  been  essential  to  test  and  validate 
new technologies and solutions and prepare them for market deployment. 

176. The EU has developed legislative and non-legislative digitalisation initiatives in all 
transport modes, such as the Intelligent Transport Systems Directive, the Electronic 
Freight  Transport  Information  Regulation  and  a  new  Regulation  on  a  European 
Maritime  Single  Window  environment.  The  Commission  has  also  established  a 
dedicated expert group, the Digital Transport and Logistics Forum (DTLF), where 
public  and  private  stakeholders  work  together  to  support  digitalisation  in  freight 
transport  and  logistics;  as  well  as  the  High  level  Steering  Group  for  the 
Governance of the of the Digital Maritime System and Services. 

177.  Similarly,  a  key  element  towards  making  maritime  transport  smarter  is  the 
implementation  of  the  EU  Vessel  Traffic  Monitoring  and  Information  System 
(VTMIS)  –  the  EU-wide  interoperable  and  safe  system  that  provides  the  digital 
maritime  picture  for  enhanced  traffic  and  transport  at  sea.  The  main  objective  of 
the VTMIS Directive108 is to: “establish in the [Union] Community a vessel traffic 
monitoring  and  information  system  with  a  view  to  enhancing  the  safety  and 
efficiency  of  maritime  traffic,  improving  the  response  of  authorities  to  incidents, 
accidents  or potentially dangerous  situations at sea, including  search and rescue 
operations,  and  contributing  to  a  better  prevention  and  detection  of  pollution  by 
ships.” 

178. Better  sharing  of  data  between  transport  operators  can  be  ensured  by  horizontal 
initiatives or transport-specific ones, for example the Delegated Regulation on EU-
wide multi-modal travel information services109 and the Implementing Regulation 
requiring  freight  rail  undertakings  to  provide  dynamic  data  to  multimodal 
terminals110. 

179. In this regard, the European Strategy for Data111 aims at creating a single market 
for  data  that  will  ensure  Europe’s  global  competitiveness  and  data  autonomy, 
where  data  can  flow  within  the  EU  and  across  sectors,  for  the  benefit  of  all.  In 
particular, it highlights the need for cross-sectoral actions towards a European data 
space  through  the  development  of  sectoral  data  spaces  in  strategic  areas  such  as 
manufacturing, agriculture, health, and mobility. In the field of mobility, such data 
spaces will facilitate access, pooling and sharing of data from existing and future 
transport and mobility databases. 

180. Based  on  the  Commission's  Intelligent  Transport  Systems  (ITS)  action  plan  of 
2008, a dedicated legal framework was established with the entry into force of the 
ITS Directive112 in 2010. This framework supports the harmonised deployment in 
the  EU  of  ITS  solutions  in  road  transport.  It  provides  in  particular  for  EU  wide 

107 Projects can be found in the TRIMIS database (https://trimis.ec.europa.eu/) 
108 Directive 2002/59/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 June 2002 establishing a Community vessel traffic 
monitoring and information system and repealing Council Directive 93/75/EEC, OJ L 208, 5.8.2002, p. 10–27. 
109  Commission  Delegated  Regulation  (EU)  2017/1926  of  31  May  2017  supplementing  Directive  2010/40/EU  of  the  European 
Parliament  and  of  the  Council  with  regard  to  the  provision  of  EU-wide  multimodal  travel  information  services,  OJ  L  272, 
21.10.2017, p. 1–13. 
110  Commission  Implementing  Regulation  (EU)  2017/2177  of  22  November  2017  on  access  to  service  facilities  and  rail-related 
services, OJ L 307, 23.11.2017, p. 1–13. 
111A European strategy for data, COM(2020) 66 final. 
112 Directive 2010/40/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 7 July 2010 on the framework for the deployment of 
Intelligent Transport Systems in the field of road transport and for interfaces with other modes of transport, OJ L 207, 6.8.2010.  

47 

 
                                                      
specifications in different domains, such as multimodal travel, real-time traffic and 
safety-related information services113. It supports both the deployment of services, 
in  particular  through  the  financial  support  from  the  CEF  programme114,  and  the 
organisation of the access to transport data through the creation of National (data) 
Access Points115. 

181. Also  in  the  remit  of  the  ITS  Directive,  the  interoperable  EU-wide  eCall  system, 
which automatically dials Europe's single emergency number 112 in the event of a 
serious  road  crash  and  communicates  the  vehicle's  location  to  the  emergency 
services,  benefitted  from  the  development  of  a  specific  legal  framework116  (see 
also the section on Safety).117 

182. In  2016,  the  Commission  presented  a  European  strategy  for  the  coordinated 
deployment  of  cooperative  intelligent  transport  systems  (C-ITS)118  to  avoid  a 
fragmented  Single  Market  for  cooperative  transport.  The  strategy  emphasises  the 
need for interoperability, established a list of mature Day 1 services and the need to 
adopt  a  hybrid  approach  to  communication  technologies.  It  also  addresses  other 
critical  issues,  including  cyber-security  and  data  protection.  More  recently,  the 
"Europe  on  the  Move"  Communication  in  2018  highlighted  the  role  of  C-ITS  in 
enabling cooperative and in the future connected and automated mobility.  

183. In  line  with  the  C-ITS  Strategy,  14  Member  States  plus  several  associated 
countries  have  started the large-scale deployment of interoperable C-ITS  services 
through  the  C-ROADS  platform,  a  Member  State  driven  harmonisation  platform 
supported  through  the  Connecting  Europe  Facility.  Since  2019,  C-ITS  based  on 
ITS-G5  has  also  been  introduced  at  large  scale  in  series-produced  vehicles, 
enabling  safety  critical  information  services  increasing  the  road  safety  for  every 
equipped vehicle. 

184. With the Communication “On the road to automated mobility: An EU strategy for 
mobility of the future”119, the Commission proposed in May 2018 a comprehensive 
EU  approach  towards  connected  and  automated  mobility  setting  out  a  clear, 
forward looking and ambitious European agenda. This agenda provides a common 
vision  and  identifies  supporting  actions  for  developing  and  deploying  key 
technologies, services and infrastructure. In June 2019, the European Commission 
has  created  a  single  EU  wide  platform  grouping  all  relevant  public  and  private 
stakeholders to coordinate open road testing of connected and automated mobility 
and  making  the  link  with  pre-deployment  activities.  In  addition,  the  European 
Commission  has  proposed  to  establish  a  European  Partnership  under  Horizon 
Europe  to  give  a  clear  long-term  framework  to  the  strategic  planning  of  research 

113European Commission, Intelligent Transport Systems Action Plan and Directive. 
 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/its/road/action_plan_en 
114 Thanks to this support, a number of Member States declared in 2017 an up to 100% coverage of their TEN-T road network with 
ITS such as real-time traffic information, incident detection, or traffic management and traffic control. 
115European Commission, Intelligent Transport Systems Action Plan and Directive, 
 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/its/road/action_plan/nap_en     
116  https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/its/road/action_plan/ecall_en  European  Commission,  Intelligent  transport  systems,  The 
interoperable EU-wide eCall, https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/its/road/action_plan/ecall_en  
117 In particular Decision No 585/2014/EU providing for the deployment of emergency call centres (eCall Public Safety Answering 
Points) throughout the EU by October 2017 and Regulation (EU) 2015/758 providing for the mandatory fitting of 112-based eCall 
in-vehicle system on all new types of M1 and N1 vehicles from 31 March 2018 onward. 
118 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee 
and  the  Committee  of  the  Regions  ‘A  European  strategy  on  Cooperative  Intelligent  Transport  Systems,  a  milestone  towards 
cooperative, connected and automated mobility’, COM(2016) 766 final. 
119 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee 
and the Committee of the Regions ‘On the road to automated mobility: An EU strategy for mobility of the future’, COM(2018) 283 
final. 

48 

 
                                                      
and  pre-deployment  programmes  on  connected,  cooperative  and  automated 
mobility at EU and national levels. 

185. In  support  of  the  introduction  and  deployment  of  connected  and  automated 
mobility),  both  the  Gigabit  Society  Communication  and  the  5G  Action  Plan 
(2016)120  established  the  goal  of  having  uninterrupted  5G  coverage  in  European 
major  terrestrial  transport  paths  by  2025.  Consequently,  some  Member  States  set 
relevant cross-border corridors, in which new 5G based mobility services are being 
tested in order to leverage their full potential. 

186. In this regard, the recently published 5G Strategic Deployment Agenda presents a 
common  vision  for  investing  in  5G-ecosystems  in  the  field  of  Connected  and 
Automated  Mobility  and  identifies  the  key  drivers  for  accelerating  infrastructure 
roll-out.  It  will  serve  as  a  basis  for  the  upcoming  privately  as  well  as  publicly 
supported deployment projects in this field with a particular focus on the upcoming 
Connecting  Europe  Facility  2  Digital programme.  It  complements  existing 
deployment and provides an alternative for allowing connected vehicles to access 
mission-critical information in real time, which will significantly contribute to road 
safety,  to  a  lower  carbon  footprint,  and  to  a  broad  range  of  digital  services  for 
drivers and passengers. 

187. This  agenda  is  complemented  by  the  5G  Strategic  Deployment  Agenda  for  Rail, 
looking at synergies between the dedicated rail radio network and Mobile Network 
Operators  (public  networks),  and  to  maximise  the  connectivity  for  Rail  users.  In 
parallel,  the  upgrade  of  the  Rail  Radio  System  for  safety-critical  functions  to  5G 
(FRMCS)  is  developed  in  terms  of  standardisation  and  will  be  supported  by 
Connecting  Europe  Facility  2  Transport  Programme,  potentially  by  Connecting 
Europe Facility 2 Digital and Synergic projects, as well as by the Cohesion Policy. 

188. The  Artificial  Intelligence  White  Paper  of  2020 deals  with  technological,  ethical, 
legal and socio-economic aspects to boost the EU's research and industrial capacity 
and  to  put  artificial  intelligence  (AI)  at  the  service  of  European  citizens  and 
economy.  AI  has  become  an  area  of  strategic  importance  and  a  key  driver  of 
economic  development.  It  can  bring  solutions  to  many  societal  challenges, 
especially those affecting the environment and sustainability. It also offers a large 
potential  for  accessibility,  provided  that  data  and  algorithms  are  inclusive  of 
persons  with  disabilities.  Mobility  applications,  such  as  autonomous  driving,  are 
identified as one key sector in which focus is needed. 

189. The Commission adopted its strategy on Automated and connected mobility as part 
of the third mobility package in May 2018 together with a legislative proposal on 
the approval of automated/connected vehicles. Regulation (EU) 2144/2019121, was 
subsequently  adopted  by  the  legislator  and  will  provide  the  EU  industry  with  a 
strong internal market to be able to compete globally. 

190. A  key  element  of  making  rail  transport  smart  is  the  implementation  of  the 
European Railway Traffic Management System (ERTMS) – the interoperable and 
safe  EU  Signalling  system  that  replaces  21  national  systems.  ERTMS  is  now  a 
global standard for train control and communication. Its development has provided 
excellent  opportunities  for  developing  high  value  business  and  expertise  within 

120  Connectivity  for  a  Competitive  Digital  Single  Market  -  Towards  a  European  Gigabit  Society  -  COM(2016)587  &  “5G  for 
Europe: An Action Plan" - COM(2016)588. 
121 Regulation (EU) 2019/2144 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 November 2019 on type-approval requirements 
for motor vehicles and their trailers, OJ L 325, 16.12.2019, p. 1. 

49 

 
                                                      
Europe  and  for  export  around  the  world.  And  it  is  being  deployed  in  almost  50 
countries around the world, with over 21,000 km deployed.  

191. For  inland  navigation122,  significant  steps  have  been  taken  to  support  the 
deployment  of  harmonised  River  Information  Services  (RIS)  in  order  to  enable 
seamless transport and traffic management on the European inland waterways. The 
evolution of RIS needs to take into consideration new requirements stemming from 
the  digital  transformation  happening  in  the  sector  (e.g.  digital  ship  operator 
platforms,  port  information  systems,  synchromodality,  corridor  management, 
Smart  Shipping  and  Inland  Waterways  Autonomous  Ships),  including  potential 
adaptions  and  extensions  of  the  legal  framework  on  RIS.  The  legislative 
framework on the River Information Services123 is currently being evaluated.   

192. In  order  to  facilitate  the  collection,  exchange  and  maintenance  of  reference  data 
that  forms  the  basis  for  many  technical  and  operational  services  of  RIS,  the 
Commission  introduced  the  European  Reference  Data  Management  System 
(ERDMS) and took over its operation. To improve the functioning of the ERDMS 
and  its  compliance  with  evolving  technical  specifications  and  regulations,  the 
Commission  is  working  on  improvement  of  the  system  and  its  service  levels  to 
ensure its fitness for the digital transformation in inland waterway transport. 

193. The  Directive  (EU)  2017/2397  on  the  recognition  of  personal  qualifications  in 
inland  navigation  requires  Members  States  to  keep  electronic  registers  of  such 
qualifications,  and  the  EC  to  set  up  an  IT  platform  (the  so  called  ECDB124)  for 
exchanging  information  on  crew  certificates.  This  platform  should  be  operational 
by January 2022. 

194. The Commission services are preparing a support study on a smart tachograph for 
IWT. The general objective of the initiative is to contribute to a smooth and fairer 
functioning of the IWT market, through the use of digital technologies, so that this 
low  carbon  sector  can  play  its  role  as  a  competitive  actor  in  the  logistic  chain. 
More specifically, the initiative aims at: 1) minimising the administrative burden; 
2)  improving  enforcement;  3)  increasing  the  uptake  and  acceptance  of  electronic 
documents/solutions167.  In  order  to  facilitate  collection  and  exchange  of  data  on 
inland  waterway  vessels  the  Commission  introduced  the  European  Hull  database 
(EHDB).  To  improve  the  functioning  of  the  EHDB  and  to  ensure  security  of 
vessels’ data the Commission is working on improvement of the system.  

195. The  2017  Digital  Inland  Waterway  Area  (DINA)  study125  identified  three  key 
challenges  that  hamper  the  IWT  sector’s  competitiveness:  inefficient  navigation 
and  traffic  management,  inefficient  integration  of  IWT  in  logistics  processes  and 
high  administrative  burden  for  complying  with  legislation.        In  order  to  tackle 
these challenges and recognising that ‘digitalisation helps reduce the administrative 
burden  and  simplify  procedure  for  authorities  and  businesses’,  the  2018  DINA 

122  Digitalisation  of  the  inland  waterways  sector  has  been  strongly  supported  by  the  Council,  most  recently  in  the  Opatija 
Declaration (Council conclusions on "EU Waterborne Transport Sector – Future outlook: Towards a carbon-neutral, zero accidents, 
automated and competitive EU Waterborne Transport Sector" (Opatija declaration, 5 June 2020)) and by the European Parliament 
(European Parliament resolution of 14 February 2019 on NAIADES II – An action programme to support inland waterway transport 
(2018/2882(RSP)).  The  former  highlighted  the  importance  of  smooth  integration  among  transport  modes  as  well  as  increased 
interoperability in the context of the logistics chain and encouraged data sharing in order to enable innovation and provision of new 
services.     
123  Directive  2005/44/EC  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  7  September  2005  on  harmonised  river  information 
services (RIS) on inland waterways in the Community, OJ L 255, 30.9.2005, p. 152.  
124 ECDB: European Crew Database 
125The 2017 Digital Inland Waterway Area study: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/inland/studies/inland_waterways_en 

50 

 
                                                      
Staff  Working  Document126  initiated  an  examination  of  synergies  with  other 
transport modes, which resulted the so called Digital Synergy Study127.  

196. The final report of the Digital Synergy Study was published128 in July 2020. The 
study aimed at identifying informatics solutions and/or legislative frameworks with 
digital  aspect  in  other transport modes to  assess their potential re-use in  the  IWT 
sector. The study outcomes can be used by different actors in the IWT sector as a 
useful source of information and potential guidance for current project activities or 
the  development  of  new  initiatives  ranging  from  pilot  projects  to  cross  border 
systems.  Digitalisation  can  act  as  accelerator  to  achieve  the  overall  ambition  to 
improve IWT sector’s competitiveness and integration with other modes. 

197. To  support  the  digital  transformation  process  in  strategic  transport  sectors, 
dedicated  research  and  innovation  partnerships  have  already  been  established  for 
rail (the Shift2Rail joint undertaking) and air traffic management (the SESAR Joint 
Undertaking).  These  partnerships  reflect  requirements  across  the  European 
network,  and  also  allow  close  alignment  with  regulatory  bodies,  aiding  early 
adoption of successful projects. 

3.3  Single Market 

198. In the last ten years, the Commission has taken several initiatives to further foster 
the development of the Single European Transport Area. Progress towards this goal 
has  been  made  for  all  transport  modes,  for  instance  with  the  Fourth  Railway 
Package, the Blue Belt initiatives and efforts to build a Union information system 
for maritime transport, the EU Aviation Strategy, urban mobility package and the 
NAIADES Programme for inland waterways.  

199. The  successive  railway  packages  have  now  created  the  conditions  for  a  genuine 
Single  European  Rail  Area  with  open  markets  and  technical  interoperability,  to 
ensure  that  trains  are  able  to  operate  with  ease  across  national  borders,  and  the 
same  rolling  stock  be  used  all  across  Europe  but  full  implementation  is  still 
required to reap the benefits..  

200. Whilst the rail freight and international passenger services markets have been open 
for  competition  for  some  time,  rail  domestic  passenger  markets  are  only  being 
opened  by  the  Fourth  Railway  Package,  which  is  currently  being  implemented: 
European  railway  undertakings  are  allowed  to  offer  rail  services  in  any  Member 
State  since  3  December  2019,  subject  to  specific  safeguards  and  transitional 
provisions.  Where  services  are  economically  not  viable,  the  public  service 
contracts  through  which  they  are  funded  will  have  to  be  tendered  from  2023 
onwards at the latest. Experience from countries where such contracts are already 
tendered  shows  that  this  leads  to  an  improved  offer  and  lower  costs  to  the 
authorities. Joint enforcement of sectorial and competition rules has been stepped 
up, but  those efforts  are still much needed to  ensure an effective market opening 
and to remove the remaining market access barriers such as ticketing and access to 
rolling stock will require attention, among several other issues. Rail market issues 
are discussed in more detail in section 4 below. 

126 Commission Staff Working Document on Digital Inland Navigation: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/inland/news/2018-09-
20-towards-quality-inland-waterwaytransport_en 
127 Identification of potential synergies/re-use of legislative framework with digital aspect and concrete informatics solutions in other 
transport modes such as road, rail, maritime or air transport for potential re-use in the inland waterway transport 
128Final report of the Digital Synergy Study: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/inland/studies/inland_waterways_en 

51 

 
                                                      
201. EU legislation as now implemented via the Technical Pillar of the Fourth Railway 
Package  provides  a  harmonised  set  of  technical  standards  for  the  European 
Railway  network,  and  provides  EU  wide  single  vehicle  authorisation  and  safety 
certification  for  railway  undertakings  based  on  EU  specifications  and  standards, 
which  the  European  Union  Agency  for  Railways  (ERA)  issues  for  the  Single 
European Rail Area since June 2019129. The Commission and ERA, together with 
Member States, are identifying and eliminating national  rules made redundant  by 
this new regime. Collectively, these measures will promote cross-border services, 
enhance interoperability and permit the development of rolling stock and other rail 
equipment standardised at EU level.         

202. The EU has established 11 rail freight corridors, to enhance coordination between 
infrastructure  managers  on  issues  linked  to  capacity  allocation  and  management. 
Regulation (EU) 913/2010130 on the rail freight corridors is currently under review. 

Figure 12: Market share of all but the principal railway undertakings in 2016 

Source: European Commission (2018): Rail Market Monitoring Survey 2018. IRG Rail Annual Reports. Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, 
Luxembourg  and  Finland  score  0  in  both  indicators.  Passenger  data:  due  to  a  methodological  change  in  reporting,  values  are 
mostly estimated by DG MOVE. Not applicable to Cyprus and Malta. 

203. In  the  road  transport  sector,  the  market  for  international  (intra-EU)  freight  and 
passenger services has been entirely opened to competition, but domestic transport 
remains  largely  protected.  On  the  freight  side,  "cabotage",  i.e.  domestic  transport 
performed by foreign hauliers, is subject to the EU rules which were revised under 
the  first  Mobility  Package  (adopted  in  July  2020),  together  with  social  rules  for 
road  transport  sector.  One  of  the  objectives  of  the  revision  was  to  improve  the 
working  conditions  of  drivers,  by  clarifying  the  driving  and  rest  time  rules,  by 
establishing specific rules for posting of road transport workers and by improving 
enforcement  of  those  rules  with  the  aid  of  smart  tachograph  and  other  digital 
systems (e.g. IMI – Internal Market Information system). The other objective was 
to  eliminate  distortions  of  competition  on  the  internal  road  transport  market  by 
clarifying  the  existing  rules  on  the  access  to  the  haulage  market  and  to  the 
profession  of  road  transport  operator  and  strengthening  their  enforcement. 
Limitations to cabotage operations are part of the newly adopted rules. 

129 Implementation was delayed for many Member States until June or October 2020 as permitted under the Directives and then on 
account of COVID. 
130 Regulation (EU) No 913/2010 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 22 September 2010 concerning a European rail 
network for competitive freight, OJ L 276, 20.10.2010, p. 22. 

52 

 
 
                                                      
204. Since  the  early  1990s  the  aviation  market  has  been  gradually  liberalised.  The 
creation  of  the  aviation  single  market  has  produced  significant  socio-economic 
benefits for passengers, businesses and regions. Air traffic has more than doubled 
since 1990 and in 2018 more than a billion passengers travelled through some 500 
European airports. More than 3,500 intra-EU routes provided access to both large 
cities as well as peripheral  regions.  The  fostering of competition  in  the market131 
has  contributed  to  making  air  travel  affordable,  to  creating  jobs  and  to  stimulate 
business.  

205. While the Single Market for aviation has been a success, there remain challenges 
and room for improvement in some areas of its functioning, in addition to the need 
to make aviation more sustainable. In particular, the Single European Sky remains 
incomplete.  The  current  fragmentation  of  the  airspace  leads  to  inefficiencies, 
additional fuel burn and extra costs for the whole aviation value chain.  

206. In 2015, the Commission adopted the EU Aviation Strategy132 which pursued three 

key priorities:  

  Tapping  into  growth  markets,  by  improving  services,  market  access  and 
investment  opportunities  with  third  countries,  whilst  guaranteeing  a  level 
playing field; 

  Tackling  limits  to  growth  in  the  air  and  on  the  ground,  by  reducing  capacity 

constraints and improving efficiency and connectivity; 

  Maintaining  high  EU  safety  and  security  standards,  by  shifting  to  a  risk  and 
performance  based  mind-set.  Creating  high  quality  jobs  and  maintaining  a 
strong social agenda.  

207. The  Single  Market  for  aviation  has  delivered  key  achievements  for  European 
citizens,  regions  and  businesses.  The  over  1.1  billion  passengers  –  an  average 
yearly growth of 6.9% between 2015 and 2018 – that travelled through European 
airports  in  2018  meant  that  the  global  share  of  EU  traffic  in  terms  of  passengers 
carried has remained stable at around 26%133. Since 2015 close to 700 new routes 
(city to city) have been opened within EU, representing an increase of 15%134 and 
contributing  to  increasing  connectivity.  Over  the  same  period,  nearly  200 
additional routes (+30%)135 have seen a third airline as an operator, contributing to 
increase in competition and affordability within EU. 

208. In the area of waterborne transport the Commission, in the policy framework of the 
2011 White Paper, has  taken initiatives to  consolidate the internal  market  for sea 
shipping services and better connect EU ports to create an EU maritime transport 
space without barriers. In this context measures were adopted to improve maritime 
surveillance  capabilities  for  safe  and  efficient  maritime  transport  and  traffic,  to 
simplify procedures for regular shipping services and reporting formalities during 
port calls, review  restrictions of port services and improve transparency  of ports’ 
financing. 

131  In  addition  to  the  sectorial  initiatives  aiming  at  completing  the  Single  market  referred  to  in  the  present  document,  the 
Commission has adopted State Aid Guidelines for aviation in 2014 (Communication from the Commission  — Guidelines on State 
aid to airports and airlines, OJ C 99, 4.4.2014, p. 3–34).  
132 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee 
and the Committee of the Regions ‘An Aviation Strategy for Europe’, COM/2015/0598 final. 
133 Sources: Eurostat and ICAO 
134 Source: OAG summer schedules (EU28 2015-2019) 
135 Source: OAG summer schedules (EU28 2015-2019) 

53 

 
                                                      
209. As  regards  international  multimodal  transport,  the  range  of  legal  instruments 
shippers  and  transport  operators  have  to  consider  for  each  transport  operation,  is 
very  broad.  This  includes  the  rules  applicable  to  vehicles  (technical,  safety  and 
environmental  norms  and  standards),  workers  (e.g.  professional  qualifications, 
working  time),  services  (access  to  market)  and  goods  (e.g.  customs,  rules 
applicable to dangerous goods). Each operation is accompanied by a large amount 
of  information,  which  in  vast  majority  of  cases  still  involves  paper  documents  at 
one  stage  or  another.  Technical  systems  for  the  electronic  exchange  of  transport 
information vary between and within countries and transport modes. Some of these 
problems  will  be  tackled  by  the  implementation  of  the  eFTI  Regulation136  which 
establishes  the  conditions  under  which  certain  information  relevant  under  the 
acquis  for  intra-EU  movements  of  freight  is  accepted  by  the  authorities  in 
electronic form  and which provides for common rules for processing the data for 
intra-EU cargo movements.  

210. Passengers in the EU are protected by a full set of passenger rights, whether they 
travel by air, rail, ship, bus and coach. This framework provides a minimum level 
of protection for people using transport services, including the most vulnerable, i.e. 
persons with disabilities and reduced mobility. It recognises that passengers, as the 
weaker  party  to  the  transport  service  contract,  need  to  be  treated  fairly  when  the 
service has not been provided as expected.  

211. As a  consequence, the framework  addresses the three steps of the journey  (prior, 
during  and  after  the  journey)  to  facilitate  mobility  and  social  inclusion.  It 
contributes  to  reducing  the  negative  impact  of  travel  disruptions  on  users  of 
collective  transport  modes  and  to  improving  service  quality  for  passengers.  This 
also  contributes  to  the  creation  of  a  level  playing  field  for  transport  operators 
within  and  across  modes  in  the  EU  and  a  European  standard  of  passenger 
protection, which is essential in the context of the single market. Today passenger 
rights  apply to a  growing market  of over 400 million  citizens performing several 
billions  of  journeys  every  year  for  private  or  business  purpose.  In  this  context, 
passenger protection has become a cornerstone of EU transport policy137, building 
on international conventions and the general consumer protection framework of the 
Union.  

212. Attention is being paid to accessibility of transport service information for persons 
with  disabilities  in  the  European  Accessibility  Act,138  complementing  existing 
passenger  rights  legislation  which  covers  also  the  assistance  to  be  provided  to 
passengers  with  disabilities  and  reduced  mobility  when  travelling  by  air,  rail, 
waterborne or bus and coach transport. Accessibility is a key component of social 
sustainability and inclusiveness, contributing to usability and durability.  

213. In its Communication ‘A stronger and renewed strategic partnership with the EU's 
outermost regions’139, the Commission committed itself to reducing the outermost 
regions'  "accessibility  gap"  caused  by  remoteness  from  continental  Europe, 
insularity  (in  most  cases)  and  difficult  topography  and  to  testing  low-carbon 
transport and energy efficient solutions.   

136  Regulation  (EU)  2020/1056  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  15  July  2020  on  electronic  freight  transport 
information, OJ L 249, 31.7.2020, p. 33. 
137 2011 White Paper 
138 Directive (EU) 2019/882 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 April 2019 on the accessibility requirements for 
products and services (Text with EEA relevance), OJ L 151, 7.6.2019, p. 70–115. 
139 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee, 
the  Committee  of  the  Regions  and  the  European  Investment  Bank  ‘A  stronger  and  renewed  strategic  partnership  with  the  EU's 
outermost regions’, COM(2017) 623 final. 

54 

 
                                                      
Infrastructure developments 

214. To  develop  the  Trans-European  Transport  Network  (TEN-T  Network),  the  EU 
adopted  a  Regulation  in  2013140  providing  Union  guidelines  for  transport 
investment. The Regulation establishes a legally binding obligation to develop the 
so-called  "core"  and  "comprehensive"  TEN-T  Networks.  The  TEN-T  covers  all 
transport modes and connections between them (ports, airports and other transport 
terminals), they set standards and requirements to be met along the whole network, 
and  they  include  smart  and  innovative  components  to  facilitate  efficient 
infrastructure use and high-quality services.  

215. The core network is strategically the most important part of the TEN-T and must 
be  completed  by  2030.  The  core  network  has  been  designed  to  connect  the  main 
urban areas of the EU with the different transport modes and to ensure multimodal 
connections  to  the  most  important  ports.  It  includes  about  67,000  km  of  railway 
lines, 50,000 km of roads and 15,700 km of inland waterways. Motorways of the 
Sea are the maritime dimension of the network. At this stage, about  8,500 km  of 
railway lines, 1,600 km of roads and some major inland waterway projects remain 
to be newly constructed or substantially upgraded until 2030. The TEN-T network 
serves also as basis for the deployment of alternative fuel infrastructure and digital 
infrastructure. 

216. Along the existing part of the TEN-T, efforts are still needed to fully comply with 
the standards set out in the Regulation. However, significant progress has already 
been  made.  Along  the  nine  core  network  corridors,  for  example:  89%  of  the  rail 
infrastructure is electrified. 85 % of the inland waterways infrastructure meets the 
requirements of a minimum draught of 2.5 m and of a minimum height of 5.25 m 
under  bridges.  89%  of  the  TEN-T  ports  on  the  core  network  corridors  are 
connected to the railway network. 

217. Projects of common interest, identified in accordance with the TEN-T Regulation, 
can  be  supported  under  the  Connecting  Europe  Facility  (CEF).  The  CEF 
Regulation141, adopted in 2013, allocated a seven-year budget (2014-2020) of EUR 
23.3 billion for investment projects in the transport sector. 

140 Regulation (EU) No 1315/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013 on Union guidelines for the 
development of the trans-European transport network and repealing Decision No 661/2010/EU, OJ L 348, 20.12.2013, p. 1.   
141 Regulation (EU) No 1316/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2013 establishing the Connecting 
Europe Facility, OJ L 348, 20.12.2013.  

55 

 
                                                      
218. Cohesion  policy  provides  substantial  support  to  develop  a  multi-modal,  door-to-
door  European  transport  system  which  addresses  the  needs  of  commercial  actors 
and  citizens  for  long-distance,  cross-border  transport,  as  well  as  for  regional  and 
local  mobility.  In  the  period  2014-2020  around  EUR  70  billion  have  been 
programmed  to  support  transport  investments  from  Cohesion  Fund  and  ERDF. 
Around EUR 33.4 billion for TEN-T have been programmed and around EUR 36.6 
billion  for  other  national,  regional  and  local  infrastructure.  This  support  is 
delivered through over 200 national, regional, and Interreg programmes, tailored to 
the  particular  situation  in  the  Member  States  and  regions  (in  line  with  relevant 
national  and  regional  transport  plans).  During  the  period  2014-2019,  CEF 
Transport  has  awarded  EUR  23.3  billion  in  grants  to  co-finance  projects  of 
common interest, out of which EUR 11.3 billion was transferred from the Cohesion 
Fund.  These  funds  are  dedicated  to  completing  the  TEN-T  Network,  building 
cross-border links to better integrate national networks and to foster digitalisation 
and improved performance of the existing network. 

3.4  Safety & security 

Safety 

219. For  road  safety,  the  Commission  adopted  in  2010  Road  Safety  Policy 
Orientations142 that set a target of halving the number of road fatalities by 50% by 
2020 and that included a mix of initiatives, focusing on improving vehicle safety, 
the safety of infrastructure and road users' behaviour. Faced with stagnation in the 
reduction  of  EU-wide  fatality  figures  in  the  second  half  of  the  last  decade,  the 
Commission received a strong mandate for a new road safety programme from the 
EU Transport Ministers in the “Valletta Declaration” of 2017143. The Commission 
in 2018 adopted the Road Safety Policy Framework 2021-2030 as part of the Third 
Mobility Package, along with a Strategic Action Plan on Road Safety, which set a 
new target for 2021-30 to reduce deaths and – for the first time – serious injuries 
by 50%. It also set out how the Safe System could be implemented at EU level – 
i.e.,  focusing  holistically  on  the  different  elements,  such  as  vehicle  safety, 
infrastructure,  road  user  behaviour  such  as  speed,  governance  aspects  and  post-
crash care, with Key Performance Indicators to benchmark progress.144  

220. In  terms  of  vehicle  safety,  safety  technologies  and  type-approval  requirements 
have  been  significantly  upgraded  for  all  vehicle  categories  in  recent  years.  Lane 
departure  warning  and  advanced  emergency  braking  for  lorries  were  required  as 
from  2015  in  the  General  Safety  Regulation145  and  anti-lock  braking  systems  are 
mandatory for motorcycles in the EU since 2016146, eCall for emergencies in cars 
and  vans  is  required  for  new  models  since  2018147.  In  2019,  the  General  Safety 

– 

on 

safety 

endorsing 

conclusions 

142 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee 
and  the  Committee  of  the  Regions  ‘Towards  a  European  road  safety  area:  policy  orientations  on  road  safety  2011-2020’, 
COM(2010) 389 final. 
143Council 
road 
(http://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-9994-2017-INIT/en/pdf).     
144 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee 
and the Committee of the Regions ‘Europe on the move - Sustainable Mobility for Europe: safe, connected, and clean’, COM(2018) 
293 final. 
145  Regulation  (EC)  No  661/2009  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  13  July  2009  concerning  type-approval 
requirements for the general safety of motor vehicles, their trailers and systems, components and separate technical units intended 
therefor, OJ L 200, 31.7.2009, p. 1.  
146 Regulation (EU) No 168/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 January 2013 on the approval and market 
surveillance of two- or three-wheel vehicles and quadricycles, OJ L 060 2.3.2013, p. 52 
147  Regulation  (EU)  2015/758  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council    of  29  April  2015  concerning  type-approval 
requirements for the deployment of the eCall in-vehicle system based on the 112 service, OJ L 123 19.5.2015, p. 77 

the  Valletta  Declaration 

of  March 

2017 

56 

 
                                                      
Regulation was reviewed again148, requiring cars, lorries and buses to be fitted with 
a range of important new safety technologies such as Intelligent Speed Assistance, 
Lane  Keeping  Assistance  and  Automated  Emergency  Braking.  A  number  of  the 
most significant new safety systems will be mandatory from 2022 in new models 
and by 2024 for all new cars.     

221. The  Directive  on  Road  Infrastructure  Safety  Management  was  also  upgraded  in 
2019149.  The  Directive,  which  prescribes  safety  assessments  at  all  stages  of  the 
lifecycle of a road (design, construction, operation), now applies not only to TEN-
T  roads,  but  also  to  all  motorways  as  well  as  primary  roads.  The  upgrade  also 
introduced a network-wide pro-active risk assessment and the obligation to take the 
needs  of  vulnerable  road  users  into  account  systematically  in  all  safety 
assessments.     

222. In  addition,  the  legal  framework  for  the  training  of  professional  drivers  was 
upgraded in 2018150, a package of measures on roadworthiness testing was adopted 
in  2014151  and  rules  on  the  cross-border  pursuit  of  road  traffic  offences  were 
introduced in 2011 (re-published in 2015)152. 

223. Aviation safety has been a great success story, not least because fatal accidents for 
commercial air transport involving EU operators have fallen to zero since 2016153. 
Work in this area is influenced by the inherently international nature of the aviation 
industry  and  most  standards  adopted  at  global  level  are  implemented  into  EU 
aviation  safety  legal  framework.  International  cooperation  is  thus  essential  to 
ensure  aviation  safety  and  development  of  globally  agreed  standards.  The  EU  is 
actively engaged in strengthening aviation safety at the international level, notably 
through its work with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). 

224. The European aviation safety system is based on a comprehensive set of common 
safety  rules,  which  are  overseen  by  the  European  Commission,  the  European 
Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the National Aviation Authorities.  In 
the  context  of  the  2015  Aviation  Strategy,  a  new  Aviation  Safety  Regulation154 
replacing  Regulation  216/2008,  has  been  elaborated  and  adopted.  The  aim  is  to 
prepare the EU aviation safety system for the challenges of the future, including a 
new era of innovation and digital technologies. It consists of a shift towards a risk 
and  performance-based  approach,  measures  to  increase  efficiency  of  the  system 
and promotion of cooperative safety management between the EU and its Member 
States.  Furthermore,  the  2015  Aviation  Strategy  recommended  the  adoption  of  a 
basic legal framework for the safe development of drone operations in the EU, as 
part of the new Aviation Safety Regulation.  The  new Aviation Safety Regulation 
extended the EU safety rules to all drones and the recently adopted Implementing 

148 Regulation (EU) 2019/2144 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 November 2019 on type-approval requirements 
for motor vehicles and their trailers, OJ L 325, 16.12.2019, p. 1.     
149 Directive (EU) 2019/1936 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2019 amending Directive 2008/96/EC on 
road infrastructure safety management, OJ L 305, 26.11.2019, p. 1. 
150 Directive (EU) 2018/645 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 April 2018 amending Directive 2003/59/EC on the 
initial qualification and periodic training of drivers of certain road vehicles for the carriage of goods or passengers and Directive 
2006/126/EC on driving licences, OJ L 112, 2.5.2018, p. 29. 
151 Directive 2014/45/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 3 April 2014 on periodic roadworthiness tests for motor 
vehicles  and  their  trailers,  OJ  L  127,  29.4.2014,  p.  51;  Directive  2014/46/EU  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of 
3 April  2014  amending  Council  Directive  1999/37/EC  on  the  registration  documents  for  vehicles,  OJ  L  127,  29.4.2014,  p.  129; 
Directive 2014/47/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 3 April 2014 on the technical roadside inspection of the 
roadworthiness of commercial vehicles circulating in the Union, OJ L 127, 29.4.2014, p. 134. 
152 Directive (EU) 2015/413 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 2015 facilitating cross-border exchange of 
information on road-safety-related traffic offences, OJ L 68, 13.3.2015, p. 9. 
153 Source EASA https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/easa_asr_2020.pdf 
154 Regulation (EU) 2018/1139 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 4 July 2018 on common rules in the field of civil 
aviation and establishing a European Union Aviation Safety Agency, OJ L 212, 22.8.2018, p. 1.  

57 

 
                                                      
Rules155  covering  drone  technical  requirements  and  drone  operations  should  help 
opening  the  EU  drone  services  and  foster  the  development  of  the  manufacturing 
market. 

225. As  part  of  the  2015  Aviation  Strategy,  the  Commission  also  presented  a  revised 
European  Aviation  Safety  Programme,  laying  out,  through  an  integrated  set  of 
regulations, processes and activities at Union level how aviation safety is managed 
in  the  EU,  and  thus  providing  Member  States  a  reference  for  the  elaboration  of 
their own State Safety Programmes in the context of the ICAO. 

226. The  set  of  common  safety  rules  is  complemented  with  legislation  on  accident 
investigation  and  on  the  reporting,  analysis  and  follow-up  of  occurrences  in  civil 
aviation which have been revised respectively in 2010156 and 2014157.   

227. Finally,  the  EU  has  concluded  over  the  past  years  bilateral  aviation  safety 
agreements  with  the  United  States  of  America,  Canada,  Brazil,  China  and  Japan 
and  the  Commission  is  undertaking  technical  cooperation  projects  with  third 
countries in the area of safety. 

228. The legislative framework for maritime safety was thoroughly assessed by way of 
the 2018 Maritime Transport Fitness Check. The maritime safety situation today is 
one characterised by a limited amount of accidents and very few fatalities. Whilst it 
remains hard to pinpoint ultimate safety outcomes to individual legislative acts, it 
was  concluded  that  overall  EU  maritime  legislation  has  contributed  to  decisively 
improve the safety situation at sea. The added value of EU intervention is shown 
both by the swift adoption of international safety rules, as well as the harmonised 
enforcement and implementation  of such rules  across the EU Member States and 
for ships under an EU Member State flag. 

229. The  Directive  (EU)  2016/1629  on  technical  standards  for  inland  navigation 
vessels was adopted by the European Parliament and the Council in October 2016. 
This  Directive  strengthens  the  Internal  Market  ensuring  technical  harmonisation 
throughout the Union's inland waterways while providing flexibility for taking into 
account  the  particular  features  of  each  inland  waterway  section  in  the  EU  and  to 
ensure safety of inland navigation vessels.  

230. Rail safety in the EU is assured via stringent safety requirements for the technical 
specifications of rail vehicles and infrastructure as well as safety management tools 
for  rail  operators  and  infrastructure  providers  set  out  in  the  Railway  Safety  and 
Railway  Interoperability  Directives  (2016/798  and  2016/797).  These  rules  also 
require the various elements of the Union rail system to be supervised by national 
safety authorities, while authorisations to place rail vehicles on the market and to 
operate  as  a  railway  operator  are,  in  most  of  the  cases,  given  by  the  European 
Union Agency for Railways (ERA). The level  of safety on EU railways is by far 
the  highest  for  surface  mobility  (0.1  fatality  per  billion  passenger  km),  though  it 
can vary between Member States.  The Commission and ERA work with Member 
States  to  maintain  these  high  levels  of  safety  and  share  best  practice  to  increase 
safety  levels  where  needed.  Particular  focus  is  put  on  the  promotion  of  safety 

155 Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/947 on the rules and procedures for the operation of unmanned aircraft, OJ L 
152, 11.6.2019, p. 45; and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 945/2019 on unmanned aircraft systems and on third-country 
operators of unmanned aircraft systems, OJ L 152, 11.6.2019, p. 1. 
156  Regulation  (EU)  No  996/2010  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  20  October  2010  on  the  investigation  and 
prevention of accidents and incidents in civil aviation and repealing Directive 94/56/EC, OJ L 295, 12.11.2010, p. 35–50. 
157  Regulation  (EU)  No  376/2014  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  3  April  2014  on  the  reporting,  analysis  and 
follow-up of occurrences in civil aviation, amending Regulation (EU) No 996/2010 of the European Parliament and of the Council 
and  repealing  Directive  2003/42/EC  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  and  Commission  Regulations  (EC)  No 
1321/2007 and (EC) No 1330/2007, OJ L 122, 24.4.2014, p. 18–43. 

58 

 
                                                      
culture  and  will  come  through  the  roll-out  of  the  new  versions  of  the  European 
railway signalling and train protection system.  ERTMS ensures trains cannot over 
speed or pass red signals.     

Security 

231. There is currently no EU legislation addressing land transport security (apart for 
dangerous goods where there is some overlap of safety and security requirements). 
Though theft of cargo from road and rail is estimated to cost some EUR 8 billion 
per year, EU Transport Ministers, to date, have not called upon the Commission to 
bring  forward  any  legislation  for  EU  security  requirements  for  either  road  or  rail 
transport.  The  Commission  has  pursued  efforts  to  implement  an  Action  Plan  to 
improve  rail  passenger  security,  notably  via  the  establishment  of  the  EU  Rail 
Security Platform.  The outcome of its work  could  potentially  form  the basis of a 
regulatory initiative.  

232. On road transport the Commission published a study in 2019 which concludes that 
400  000  safe  and  secure  parking  places  for  lorries  are  lacking  in  the  EU.  Cargo 
crimes  are  more  frequent  than  ever,  and  about  75%  of  these  incidents  are 
happening  when  lorries  are  parked  in  unsecure  parking  places.  As  a  response  to 
this  critical  situation,  both  for  drivers  and  cargo  owners,  the  Commission  is 
promoting  safe  and  secure  parking  areas  and  information  provision  about  them, 
making  available  CEF-funding  and  has  set  up  an  expert  group  to  implement 
common standards and certification procedures for safe and secure parking places. 

233. Since  2002,  the  Commission  has  established  common  rules  in  the  field  of  civil 
aviation  security  aimed  at  protecting  persons  and  goods  from  unlawful 
interference with civil aircraft. 

234. Regulation  (EC)  300/2008158  lays  down  common  rules  and  basic  standards  on 
aviation  security  and  procedures  to  monitor  the  implementation  of  the  common 
rules  and  standards.  Since  then,  it  has  been  supplemented  through  implementing 
legislation as regards, among other, liquids, aerosols and gels, the use of security 
scanners,  the  adoption  of  alternative  security  measures,  controls  of  air  cargo 
internally  as  well  as  internationally  and  the  specifications  of  national  quality 
control  programmes.  The  Commission  has  powers  to  carry-out  inspections  to 
verify compliance with the EU legislation.  

235. In  the  maritime  security  domain,  the  Union  benefits  from  a  Regulation  (EC) 
725/2004159 covering security measures on board ships and the immediate interface 
between  ships  and  ports.  Directive  2005/65/EC160  addressing  elements  of  port 
security not covered by the Regulation complemented it in 2005. The Commission 
was also given powers to conduct inspections.  

236. The Council in 2014 adopted a Maritime Security Strategy for the global maritime 
domain to coordinate national policies and give a European response to  maritime 
threats and risks, cooperation within the EU and international bodies, such as the 
International Maritime Organisation is progressing only slowly. 

237. Various initiatives are on-going to tackle cyber security and the EU established a 
dedicated agency – the EU Agency for Network and Information Security – for this 

158 Regulation (EC) No 300/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 2008 on common rules in the field of 
civil aviation security and repealing Regulation (EC) No 2320/2002, OJ L 97, 9.4.2008, p. 72.  
159  Regulation  (EC)  No  725/2004  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  31  March  2004  on  enhancing  ship  and  port 
facility security, OJ L 129, 29.4.2004, p. 6. 
160 Directive 2005/65/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 October 2005 on enhancing port security, OJ L 310, 
25.11.2005, p. 28. 

59 

 
                                                      
purpose.  The  Directive  on  Security  of  Network  and  Information  Systems  (NIS 
Directive)  constitutes  a  common  baseline  to  enhance  cyber-resilience,  also  in 
transport.      

238. The legislator also  adopted Regulation  (EU) 2144/2019161 which provides for the 
Commission to adopt type approval rules on cars regarding their protection about 
cyberattacks. These implementing rules are under development and are intended to 
be applicable from July 2022. 

3.5  Social issues 

239. In  2018,  the  transport  and  storage  services  sector  (including  postal  and  courier 
activities) in  the EU-27 employed around 10.3 million  persons162, some 5.3 % of 
the  total  workforce163.  Around  52%  of  them  worked  in  land  transport  (road,  rail 
and  pipelines),  3  %  in  water  transport  (sea  and  inland  waterways),  4  %  in  air 
transport and 27 % in warehousing and supporting and transport activities (such as 
cargo  handling,  storage  and  warehousing)  and  the  remaining  14  %  in  postal  and 
courier activities. 

240. A  third  of  transport  workers  are  above  50  years  old164.  Only  22%  of  transport 
workers  are  women  (most  of  which  work  in  administrative  positions).  Less  than 
5%  work  as  pilots,  seafarers  and  truck  or  train  drivers.  While  the  labour markets 
per  transport  mode  may  be  separate,  they  may  nevertheless  have  similar 
characteristics165:  male-dominated,  ageing,  in  need  of  highly  mobile  skilled 
workers,  labour  shortages,  fatigue  and  stress,  work-life  balance,  skills  mismatch, 
global competition, law application and enforcement. 

241. A  well-functioning  Single  Market  needs  to  be  based  on  fair  working  conditions 
ensuring  a  level  playing  field.  Every  EU  worker  has  certain  minimum  rights 
relating  to  health  and  safety  at  work,  equal  opportunities  for  women  and  men, 
protection against discrimination, labour law. The EU Member States must  make 
sure that their national  laws protect  these rights,  in  particular those laid  down by 
EU law. 

242. Many  transport  companies  operate  across  borders.  As  outlined  in  the  recent 
Commission Communication on ‘A strong social Europe for just transitions166, EU 
rules  need  to  be  fit  for  purpose  to  guarantee  that  this  happens  in  a  fair  and 
transparent  way  and  ensure  fair  competition  among  businesses,  protect  workers’ 
rights, and avoid double contributions and social dumping. To this end in the EU 
adopted the set of social rules in road transport, including sector-specific rules on 
posting  of  highly  mobile  road  transport  workers.  The  newly  created  European 
Labour  Authority  (ELA)  will  be  a  key  tool  to  facilitate  the  application  and 
enforcement  of  EU  rules  in  this  area,  improving  the  functioning  of  the  Single 
Market.  It  will  provide  to  individuals  and  employers  information  on  working  or 
operating  in  another  EU  country,  and  support  cooperation  between  national 

161 Regulation (EU) 2019/2144 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 November 2019 on type-approval requirements 
for motor vehicles and their trailers, OJ L 325, 16.12.2019, p. 1. 
162  Figures  on  number  of  persons  employed  in  transport,  total  workforce  and  shares  per  mode  based  on  Eurostat  Labour  Force 
Survey (age 15-64 years). 
163 4.5 % of total employment if postal and courier activities are not included. 
164 According to the European Transport Workers’ Federation, the average age of lorry drivers is around 45, while the average age 
of bus and coach drivers is 55 years plus, and an estimated 98% of the drivers are male. 
165 European Commission (2017), Study on a Pilot project: Making the EU transport sector attractive to future generations. 
166 COM (2020) 14 final. 

60 

 
                                                      
authorities,  including  on  strengthening  inspections,  tackling  undeclared  work  and 
fighting fraud. 

243. The  transport  sector  often  suffer  from  a  negative  image  in  terms  of  working 
conditions,  which may discourage in  particular  young people and women to  look 
for  transport  jobs.  In  a  sector  that  has  been  largely  liberalised  and  where  the 
mobility of workers is high, social protection and labour law rules remain primarily 
a responsibility of the Member States. This can lead to a different implementation 
and  different  levels  of  enforcement  across  the  Member  States.  This  brings 
challenges  in  particular  a  lack  of  clarity  on  applicable  social  rules  for  some 
workers  and  a  low  level  of  enforcement  and  the  risk  of  unfair  employment 
practices. Social dialogue and the involvement of workers is one of the principles 
of  the  European  Pillar  of  Social  Rights167.  At  European  level,  employers’  and 
workers’  organisations  (the  social  partners)  regularly  meet  within  sectoral  social 
dialogue committees168 established in the various segments of the transport sector: 
civil aviation, inland waterways, maritime transport, ports, railways, road transport, 
including  urban  public  transport.  The  Commission  supports  these  committees, 
which  are  intended  as  representative  bodies  for  consultation,  joint  initiatives  and 
negotiation  and  were  established  with  due  regard  for  the  autonomy  of  the  social 
partners. The Commission has regular exchanges with the European social partners 
in the transport sector.  

244. There is a risk of skills mismatch for certain transport workers and the need to keep 
pace  with  changing  skill  requirements.  Changes  in  skills  requirements  are  most 
visible  in  sectors  that  are  strongly  influenced  by  the  green  transition,  notably  in 
transport.  The  “European  Skills  Agenda  for  sustainable  competitiveness,  social 
fairness and resilience” is the EU’s response to these challenges, in transport and in 
other sectors. A flagship action of the Skills Agenda is the “Pact for Skills”, which 
will bring together stakeholders, private and public, and will, among others, set up 
large-scale  partnerships,  including  at  regional  level,  in  strategic  industrial 
ecosystems  and  priority  areas  identified  in  the  European  Green  Deal.  These 
partnerships  can  build  on  the  “Blueprint  for  sectoral  cooperation  on  skills”169  for 
gathering  sectoral  skills  intelligence,  mapping  key  occupation  needs,  defining 
occupational  profiles  and  developing  training  programmes.  Three  Blueprint 
Alliances  are  relevant  to  sustainable  transport:  one  for  automotive170,  one  for 
maritime shipping171 and one for rail supply and transport industries. To be able to 
comply  with  EU  accessibility  legislation  and  provide  better  service  for  persons 
with  disabilities  and  those  with  reduced  mobility,  training  to  enhance  skills  on 
these areas is needed. 

245. Another  flagship  action  of  the  Skills  Agenda  is  the  Commission  Proposal  for  a 
Council Recommendation on VET for sustainable competitiveness, social fairness 
and resilience172. It proposes that by 2025, 8% of learners in vocational education 
and  training  benefit  from  a  learning  mobility  abroad.  Learning  and  working 
placements abroad teach young people not only job-specific technical but also soft 

167https://ec.europa.eu/commission/priorities/deeper-and-fairer-economic-and-monetary-union/european-pillar-social-
rights/european-pillar-social-rights-20-principles_en     
168  In  line  with  Commission  Decision  of  20  May  1998  on  the  establishment  of  Sectoral  Dialogue  Committees  promoting  the 
Dialogue between the social partners at European level (notified under document number C(1998) 2334) (98/500/EC), https://eur-
lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:01998D0500-20130701. 
169 https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1415&langId=en 
170 https://www.project-drives.eu/en/home 
171 https://www.skillsea.eu/ 
172 COM (2020) 275 final 

61 

 
                                                      
skills,  such  as  adaptability,  resilience,  intercultural  or  language  skills  -  skills  that 
are very sought after, and not only in the transport sector.  

246. Digitalisation and automation are already affecting employment in certain sectors, 
including  transport.  The  Commission  is  looking  how  to  address  associated  social 
impacts, through cooperation with interested parties, including social partners, and 
by supporting research in the field. The 2017 Digital Transport Days addressed the 
social  impact  of  digitalisation  and  automation  and  concluded  that  the  social 
dimension  should  be  at  the  heart  of  the  transition  (technical  standards  are  not 
enough).  A  Commission  conference  in  2018  confirmed  that  stakeholders  expect 
public  authorities  to  be  active  in  accompanying  the  transition.  This  was  also 
addressed  during  the  2019  Digital  Transport  Days  in  a  dedicated  session  on 
‘Managing the transition towards digitalisation and automation – social aspects’.  

Women in transport 
247. With the setting-up of the ‘Women in  Transport  – EU Platform  for change’173  in 
2017,  first  steps  were  taken  to  address  the  sector’s  gender  gap  and  lack  of 
attractiveness.  Meanwhile,  all  important  EU  associations  covering  all  transport 
modes,  including  social  partners,  have  joined  this  action-oriented  platform  that 
aims at increasing the number of women employed in the sector by putting forward 
and  exchanging  good  practices.  Until  now  companies  have  brought  18  different 
actions to the platform. Another tool is the Declaration on equal opportunities for 
women and men in the transport sector. In 2019 the Commission published174 a list 
of  measures  that  companies  can  take  to  improve  their  gender  balance  (based  on 
real case studies) and powerful messages on what a gender policy can bring about 
for companies. In rail for example, social partners are negotiating an agreement to 
promote the employment of women in the railway sector.  

Persons with disabilities175 and reduced mobility 

248. The EU and all Member States are parties to the UN Convention on the Rights of 
Persons  with  Disabilities.  According  to  the  Convention,  States  parties  shall  take 
appropriate  measures  to  ensure  access  to  persons  with  disabilities,  on  an  equal 
basis  with  others  to  transportation.  These  measures  include  the  identification  and 
elimination  of  obstacles  and  barriers  to  accessibility  inter  alia  in  buildings,  road 
and transportation. Appropriate measures to be adopted also concern services open 
or provided to the public. Moreover States parties are to take appropriate measures 
inter  alia  to  develop,  promulgate  and  monitor  the  implementation  of  minimum 
standards and guidelines for the accessibility, to ensure that private entities offering 
facilities and services which are open or provided to the public take into account all 
aspects  of  accessibility  for  persons  with  disabilities,  to  provide  training  for 
stakeholders and forms of live assistance and  intermediaries and to promote other 
appropriate  forms  of  assistance  and  support  to  persons  with  disabilities  to  ensure 
their  access  to  information.  State  Parties  shall  take  effective  measures  to  ensure 
personal  mobility  with  the  greatest  possible  independence  for  persons  with 
disabilities,  including  by  facilitating  the  personal  mobility  of  persons  with 
disabilities in the manner and at the time of their choice, and at affordable cost. 

249. Attention is being paid to accessibility of transport for persons with disabilities in 
the  European  Accessibility  Act176,  complementing  existing  passenger  rights 

173 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/social/women-transport-eu-platform-change_en 
174 https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/6f833428-54f9-11e9-a8ed-01aa75ed71a1  
175 The European Disability Forum estimates the number of persons with disabilities to be over 100 million in Europe. 
176 Directive 2019/ 882 

62 

 
                                                      
legislation. Accessibility is a key component of social sustainability contributing to 
usability  and  durability.  The  Technical  Specifications  for  the  accessibility  of  the 
railway system for persons with reduced mobility (PRM TSI) have been amended 
in  2019,  to  ensure  inventories  of  assets,  including  a  website  providing  practical 
information about the accessibility of railway stations. 

Road transport 

250. The revision of the road transport social legislation adopted under the first Mobility 
Package provides urgent solutions to the current social and employment challenges 
in the sector. These include: revised rules on driving and rest times  – to improve 
working conditions by giving more flexibility for drivers to organise their activities 
and  by  obliging  employers  to  ensure  adequate  accommodation  for  drivers  and 
enable them to return home at regular intervals; revised enforcement requirements, 
in  particular  for  the  rules  on  the  tachograph  which  controls  the  driving  and  rest 
time  of  drivers  -  to  improve  the  efficiency  and  consistency  of  enforcement 
practices;  and  the  sector  specific  rules  on  the  posting  of  drivers  -  to  adapt  the 
application  of  posting  rules  to  the  highly  mobile  nature  of  the  road  transport 
workforce  and  ensure  more  uniform  and  lighter  administrative  and  control 
measures.  

Rail transport 

251. The  Commission  is  engaged  in  dialogue  with  stakeholders  to  promote  young 
people  and  especially  young  women,  who  can  help  replace  an  ageing  workforce. 
With a budget of EUR 4 million, “Rail supply and transport industries” (including 
both manufacturers of trains and train equipment and provision of services) is one 
of  the  sectors  included  in  the  fourth  wave  of  the  Blueprint  initiative,  starting  in 
2021177.  

252. Language  requirements  for  train  drivers  were  revised  in  2016,  to  allow  the 
exemption  from  the  B1  level  language  requirement  for  train  drivers  if  they  only 
reach  the  border  station  of  a  neighbouring  Member  State,  while  ensuring  that 
safety is not be negatively impacted. The sector is currently exploring options such 
as  rail-specific  communication  terminology,  or  a  lower  general  language  level 
combined  with  alternative,  electronic  means  to  support  effective  communication 
without  the  stringent  language  requirements.  The  European  legal  framework  for 
train  driver  licensing  and  training  has  been  evaluated  in  2019,  modernisation  to 
meet  digital  challenges  and  for  creating  a  level  playing  field  for  new  rail  service 
operators seems necessary.  

253. The  Commission  has  been  supporting  the  sectoral  social  dialogue  committee  on 
railways, which promotes the dialogue between the social partners in the sectors at 
European 
of 
automation/digitalisation  on  its  work  programme,  and  carries  out  activities  to 
anticipate and manage change. The Shift2Rail Joint Undertaking has contracted a 
study  to  identify  what  skills  will  be  most  important  in  the  future  for  different 
categories of railway staff. 

level.  The 

committee 

impact 

social 

has 

put 

the 

Aviation 

177 In the rail sector, digitalisation and digitisation have a strong impact on production, processes, operations and skill needs. The 
key  digital  innovations  include  driverless  operations,  automation  of  planning,  predictive  maintenance  and  automation  of  traffic 
control. Under the coordination of the University of Genoa, the STAFFER (Skill Training Alliance For the Future European Rail 
System) Alliance, including key European suppliers, operators, infrastructure managers as well as universities, will address shortage 
in particular  occupational  field  such as  system  engineers  and  architects,  software  developers,  IT  security  specialists  and big data 
analysts. 

63 

 
                                                      
254. Maintaining  and promoting high social  standards was highlighted  as  a priority in 
the  2015  Aviation  Strategy  for  Europe  ensuring  worker  protection  and  a  level 
playing field for airlines. The work done so far in this context lays the ground for 
any  further  action  necessary  to:  improve  legal  certainty  for  mobile  aircrew  and 
airlines;  support  better  enforcement  of  applicable  social  and  employment  law 
acquis for aircrew; develop and enhance competency-based training; pursue efforts 
to address social issues in aviation at the international level, including  ICAO and 
the  ILO,  as  well  as  including  relevant  provisions  in  comprehensive  air  transport 
agreements  with  partners  worldwide; 
in  coordination  with 
stakeholders, a human dimension roadmap to accompany the digital transformation 
in air traffic management.  

to  establish, 

255. Since  the  2000s  the  EU  has  also  sought  to  include  ambitious  social  and  labour 
clauses in its aviation agreements with third countries. In some cases, the EU has 
secured  the  application  of  the  EU  social  acquis  of  relevance  to  aviation,  in 
particular  among  those  neighbourhood  countries  with  which  aviation  agreements 
are in force. 

256. To support better enforcement of applicable social and employment law acquis for 
aircrew,  a  practice  guide  was  published  in  2016  on  applicable  labour  law  and 
competent courts, which is also relevant for the transport sector. 

257. In  the  context  of  the  evaluation  of  the  Air  Services  Regulation,  the  Commission 
services assessed possible unintended social impacts of the legislation, notably on 
working conditions of aircrews.  

258. In  March  2019,  the  Commission  published  a  Report  focusing  on  aircrew  which 
took  stock  of  progress  on  the  social  agenda  in  aviation,  also  drawing  on  the 
findings of a study on aircrew’s employment and working conditions in today's EU 
aviation  market.  It  outlined  concrete  actions  for  a  stronger  social  agenda  to  be 
implemented  in  the  short  term.  It  concluded  that  better  enforcement  is  key  to 
improve  the  situation  for  aircrew.  The  Commission  renewed  its  commitment  to 
support  Member  States  in  this.  An  expert  group  with  Member  State  experts  both 
from  the  aviation  and  employment  side  of  the  administration  was  set  up.  The 
conclusions of the expert group will be taken into account when assessing possible 
options  for  future  action  at  EU  level.  In  February  2020,  the  European  Platform 
Tackling  Undeclared  Work  which  promotes  collaboration  between  competent 
authorities  organised  a  seminar  to  tackle  undeclared  work  in  the  air  transport 
sector, with a special focus on bogus self-employment of aircrews178. 

259. As  regards  ATM,  in  June  2017,  the  Commission  adopted  a  Communication  on 
Aviation: Open and Connected Europe accompanied by a Staff Working Document 
on practises favouring service continuity. An expert group with representatives of 
the ATM industry and social partners was set up to assess the impact of the Single 
European  Sky  in  2019  on  staff  working  practices.  A  study  was  launched  on  the 
working  conditions  in  the  air  traffic  management  sector,  the  issues  air  traffic 
controllers are facing and how things will evolve in the next 15 years or more.  

260. The  European  associations  collectively  representing  the  entire  European  aviation 
recognised in their report the importance of the social dimension in the EU Pact for 
Sustainable Aviation.  They  called for  ensuring that social  and employment  rights 
enshrined  in  European  and  national  legislation  are  applied  effectively  for  all 
workers  and  highlighted  the  particular  importance  of  effective  oversight  and 

178 https://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=22457&langId=en  

64 

 
                                                      
enforcement  of  the  social  acquis.  Moreover  they  called  on  the  industry  to  ensure 
secure and fair working conditions, and stressed the need to ensure that the social 
dialogue structures are used effectively.179  

Waterborne transport 

261. Working  and  living  conditions  for  seafarers  are  regulated  mainly  at  international 
level through the Maritime Labour Convention of ILO (which entered into force in 
2013),  and  are  further  implemented  at  EU  level  through  various  Directives180.    
Directive 2008/106181 on the minimum level of training of seafarers, as amended, 
incorporates into EU law the International Maritime Organisation’s Convention on 
Standards of Training, Certification and Watchkeeping (STCW) for Seafarers. The 
Directive applies to seafarers serving on board seagoing ships flying the flag of a 
Member  State.  Following  a  REFIT  exercise,  it  was  amended  in  2019  in  order  to 
legally  clarify  the  scope  of  seafarers’  certificates  mutually  recognized  by  EU 
Member  States,  and  to  raise  the  efficiency  of  the  EU  centralized  mechanism  to 
recognize third countries at EU level. Furthermore, Council Directive 1999/63/EC 
concerning the Agreement on the organisation of working time of seafarers sets out 
minimum  standards  for  the  working  conditions  of  seafarers.  In  inland  waterway 
transport,  Directive  2014/112/EU  was  adopted  to  lay  down  more  specific 
requirements relating to  the organisation of the  working  time taking into account 
the  specificities  of  this  transport  mode,  in  particular  that  certain  categories  of 
workers have not only their place of work but also their accommodation or living 
quarters on board the vessel182. 

262. There are also a number of non-legislative initiatives and projects183 to enhance the 
attractiveness  of  the  seafarer  profession  and  improve  working  and  living 
conditions.  

263. Directive  (EU)  2017/2397,  on  the  recognition  of  professional  qualifications  in 
inland navigation and repealing Council Directives 91/672/EEC and 96/50/EC, was 
adopted  by  the  European  Parliament  and  the  Council.  With  this  Directive,  crew 
members  can  find  work  more  easily  in  a  cross-border  environment  as  the  EU 
certificates of qualification will be valid on all EU inland waterways. At the same 
time, the new rules will be built  on a modern competence based system that  will 
provide new career prospects and contribute to safety.  

264. Within  the  sectoral  social  dialogue  committee  for  inland  waterways  transport, 
social  partners  exchange  views  on  issues  relevant  to  the  sector,  such  as  the 
application of horizontal social  legislation (e.g.  working time and social security) 
in the IWT sector, as well as developments stemming from EU inland waterways 

179 European Aviation Round Table Report on the Recovery of European Aviation, November 2020. 
180  Directive  2013/54/EU  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  20  November  2013  concerning  certain  flag  State 
responsibilities  for  compliance  with  and  enforcement  of  the  Maritime  Labour  Convention,  2006,  OJ  L  329,  10.12.2013,  p.  1; 
Directive 2013/38/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 12 August 2013 amending Directive 2009/16/EC on port 
State  control,  OJ  L  218,  14.8.2013,  p.  1;  and  Council  Directive  (EU)  2018/131  implementing  the  Agreement  concluded  by  the 
European  Community  Shipowners'  Associations  (ECSA)  and  the  European  Transport  Workers'  Federation  (ETF)  to  amend 
Directive 2009/13/EC in accordance with  the amendments of 2014 to the Maritime Labour Convention, 2006, as approved by the 
International Labour Conference on 11 June 2014, OJ L 22, 26.1.2018, p. 28. 
181 Directive 2008/106/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 November 2008 on the minimum level of training of 
seafarers (recast), OJ L 323, 3.12.2008, p. 33.  
182  Directive  2014/112/EU  of  19  December  2014  implementing  the  European  Agreement  concerning  certain  aspects  of  the 
organisation of working time in inland waterway transport, concluded by the European Barge Union (EBU), the European Skippers 
Organisation (ESO) and the European Transport Workers' Federation (ETF), OJ L 367, 23.12.2014, p.86. 
183  Study  on  social  aspects  within  the  maritime  transport  sector,  https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/a14413d7-
bf30-11ea-901b-01aa75ed71a1; SkillSea project, https://www.skillsea.eu/, EU – ILO high level dialogue; EMSA training programs 
and capacity building for third countries (ie on MLC 2006).   

65 

 
                                                      
legislation  and  policies,  e.g.  development  of  databases  and  digital  tools  for  the 
implementation of legislation concerning professional qualifications. 

265. The  EU  sectoral  social  dialogue  committee  in  the  port  sector  provides  the  social 
partners  with  a  framework  to  develop  a  joint  approach  to  the  social  challenges 
related  to  port  labour  relations,  including  working  conditions,  health  and  safety 
questions, digitalisation, training requirements and professional qualifications. 

3.6  Enforcement of the EU transport acquis 

Background 

266. The  Treaties  entrust  the  Commission  with  the  task  of  ensuring  that  EU  law  is 
properly applied. The Commission’s monitoring/infringement work takes place in 
the  context  of  the  major  policy  overhaul  that  was  introduced  by  the  2016 
Communication  from  the  Commission  on  EU  law:  Better  results  through  better 
application184,  which  underlines  the  need  for  a  more  strategic  approach  to 
enforcement actions.  

267. Such  enforcement  is  one  of  the  means  to  assist  Member  States  in  their  efforts  to 
implement  EU  law,  and  to  ensure  that  they  live  up  to  their  responsibilities  in 
correctly applying EU legislation. According to the Communication, moreover, the 
Commission will prioritise its enforcement efforts on the most important breaches 
of EU law affecting the interests of its citizens and business. The Communication 
also  encourages  good  cooperation  and  communication  between  the  Commission 
and the Member States as a method conducive to reaching compliance at an early 
stage, rather than having to resort to infringement procedures. The Communication 
further  recalls  that  the  work  done  to  ensure  the  effective  enforcement  of  existing 
Union  law  should  be  recognised  as  being  of  equivalent  importance  to  the  work 
devoted to developing new legislation. 

268. The  importance  of  the  Commission’s  work  on  monitoring  the  implementation  of 
EU legislation in the field of mobility and transport was emphasised by President 
von der Leyen in her mission letter to the Commissioner Vălean, where the need to 
focus on the application and enforcement of EU law in the field of transport, and 
the  need  to  take  swift  action  if  EU  law  is  breached,  were  underlined  as  key 
objectives185.  Co-operation  with  Member  States  is  also  encouraged  by  the 
President, in particular to support their efforts when implementing EU legislation. 

Enforcement of the transport acquis 

269. The  importance  of  the  transport  area  translates  both  into  the  large  number  of 
relevant  legislative  and  non-legislative  acts  (25%  of  the  EU  legislative  corpus, 
including over 70 Directives and 200 Regulations) and the sensitivity of a number 
of  transport  issues  (such  as  safety,  security,  technical  standards,  social  rules  and 
environmental protection). 

270. The  Commission’s  commitment 

the 
implementation of the transport acquis, often with the support of dedicated Safety 

to  and  proactivity 

in  monitoring 

184 Communication from the Commission — EU law: Better results through better application (C/2016/8600), OJ C 18, 19.1.2017, 
p. 10. 
185  Mission  letter  from  the  President-elect  of  the  European Commission  to the  Commissioner-designate  for  Transport, Ms.  Adina 
Vălean, dated from 7 November 2019. 

66 

 
 
                                                      
Agencies, led over the last decade to its managing of an infringement portfolio of 
circa  1,800  cases  accounting  for  the  Directorate-General  for  Mobility  and 
Transport  (DG  MOVE).  A  large  proportion  of  these  cases  arises  from  Member 
States’  failure  to  timely  notify  the  Commission  of  their  national  implementing 
measures of Directives (1,000 cases). Complaints by citizens and businesses over 
the application of the transport acquis also play an increasingly significant role. 

271. The  Commission’s  monitoring  initiatives  in  the  area  cover  notably  the  non-
communication  of  national  measures  transposing  Directives  and  non-conformity 
cases  (i.e.  cases  of  incorrect  transposition  of  Directives),  as  well  as  the 
implementation of decisions from the Court of Justice but also address the need to 
pursue  persistent  failures  in  correctly  applying  EU  law  and  breaches  of  the 
fundamental  freedoms.  In  the  area  of  transport,  particular  attention  has  been 
devoted to cases falling under EU policy priorities in this area, such as safety and 
security,  digitalisation  and  decarbonisation,  sustainable/intelligent  transport,  and 
the completion of the single market. 

272. In recent years, the Commission monitored in particular the national implementing 
measures  aimed  at  creating  a  single  European  rail  area.  This  concerns  aspects 
relevant  to  competition186  in  this  field  the  regulatory  oversight  and  financial 
architecture  of  the  railway  sector,  the  power  of  national  regulators,  the  improved 
framework for investment in rail, and the fair and non-discriminatory access to rail 
infrastructure and rail-related services. The Commission has also been very active 
in  monitoring safety rules in  road transport (particularly regarding the training of 
drivers, roadworthiness inspections and safety requirements for tunnels), maritime 
transport  issues  (training  of  seafarers,  accident  investigations  and  marine 
equipment)  and  aviation  (Single  European  Sky,  airport  charges,  groundhandling 
and aviation safety technical requirements and administrative procedures).  

273. To better monitor the compliance of transposition measures by Member States, the 
Commission has developed a number of tools to assist Member States transposing 
and  implementing  EU  law  correctly  and  on  time,  which  include  guidance 
documents, implementation plans, expert groups, explanatory documents, training, 
organising workshops and holding package meetings.  

274. To facilitate the implementation of the transport acquis, the Commission has relied 
among  others  on  the  organisation  of  workshops  in  Member  States,  for  instance, 
with representatives of national and regional competent authorities for the award of 
public  service  contracts.  In  these  workshops  ex  ante  interpretative  guidance  is 
provided  of  the  relevant  provisions  of  EU  law  applied  to  concrete  practical 
questions, thus enhancing legal certainty and administrative capacity. 

275. The  Commission  also  organised  transport  infringement  package  meetings  with 
Member States (20 meetings in the period 2017-2019) which allowed for dedicated 
discussions  of  infringements/EU  Pilots  and  of  general  infringement  policies.  By 
establishing  strong  communication  channels  with  the  Member  States,  the 
Commission is able to engage in ex ante and ex post assessments of infringement 
procedures,  to  improve  its  knowledge  of  national  administrations’  transposition 
and  implementation  constraints,  thus  contributing  to  the  swift  correction  of 
shortcomings.  

186 In addition to the Commission improving competition directly, through antitrust enforcement. See e.g. Commission Decision of 
18 December 2013 in case AT.39678/AT.39731  Deutsche Bahn, and Commission Decision of 2 October 2017 in case AT.39813 
Baltic Rail. 

67 

 
                                                      
State of play regarding mobility and transport 

276. At the end of 2019, 1,564 infringement cases remained open at Commission level, 
of  which  203  concerned  mobility  and  transport.  Of  these  infringement  cases,  44 
concerned the rail sector, 43 road safety, 24 road transport, and the remaining 92 
concerned  other  policy  areas  (digitalisation,  maritime,  aviation,  sustainable 
transport, passenger rights): 

277. As  far  as  the  types  of  infringements  handled  by  DG  MOVE  are  concerned, 
between  2015-2019,  in  broad  terms,  two-thirds  of  the  infringement  cases  in  the 
field  of  transport  were  opened  for  non-communication  of  national  implementing 
measures of Directives (while they account for more than 80% for the Commission 
as  a  whole).  The  remaining  cases  were  opened  as  own-initiative  cases  for  non-
conformity or incorrect  application. They are most often the result of a breach of 
legal obligations (such as absence of reporting, absence of connection to a network, 
etc.)  rather  than  the  operational  conclusions  arising  from  a  comprehensive 
overview  of  the  enforcement  of  the  EU  transport  legislation  within  the  Member 
States. 

278. More than half of the infringement cases (297) handled between 2015 and 2019 by 
DG  MOVE  involve  safety  and  security  issues.  The  achievement  of  the  single 
market  and  the  development  of  new  technologies  (digitalisation  and  alternative 
fuels) are the other main targets of DG MOVE’s monitoring efforts. 

279. The  number  of  contacts  established  with  Member  States  through  the  structured 
problem-solving dialogue tool known as EU Pilot decreased substantially over the 
2015-2018  period.  The  EU  Pilot  tool  was  set  up  as  a  means  to  quickly  resolve 
potential breaches of EU law at an early stage without resorting to an infringement 
procedure.  However,  in  2019-2020,  DG  MOVE  restarted  contacting  Member 
States through EU Pilot, which has a proven record of flexibility and effectiveness. 

Figure 13: The use of EU Pilot concerning mobility and transport infringements between 
2015-August 2020 

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68 

 
 
 
140

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280. Finally,  DG  MOVE  receives  and  handles  over  one  hundred  complaints  per  year 
(2019:  DG  MOVE,  161;  Commission:  3525)  regarding  legislation  in  the  field  of 
transport,  mostly  on  incorrect  implementation  issues  relating  to  passenger  rights, 
public service obligations, recognition of driving licences, market and professional 
access, port services, and independence and powers of air regulatory bodies. 

281. Of  the  161  complaints  received  in  2019,  53  concerned  road  safety,  28  road 

transport, 22 passenger rights and 58 concerned other areas. 

69 

 
 
 
 
 
4  CHALLENGES TO SUSTAINABLE, SMART AND RESILIENT MOBILITY  

4.1  The sustainability challenge 

282. Transport currently accounts for almost a quarter of all EU GHG emissions (road 
transport alone is 20% of total) and it is also a major contributor to air pollution, a 
problem particularly acute in urban areas. Noise pollution remains a major health 
problem  in  Europe,  with  the  transport  sector  being  the  main  cause.  Illegal 
discharges  of  oily  waste,  hazardous  substances,  sewage  and  garbage  as  well  as 
underwater  noise  from  ships  harm  and  disturb  the  marine  and  river  environment. 
Transport infrastructure also exerts pressure on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, 
in  particular  from  habitats  loss,  degradation  and  fragmentation.  In  total,  the 
external  costs  of  transport  related  to  GHG  emissions  (direct  and  indirect,  from 
power generation and well-to-tank emissions), air and noise pollution, and habitat 
loss  due  to  the  transport  infrastructure  has  been  recently  estimated  to  amount  to 
about EUR 388 billion/year in the EU-27187. 

283. Transport  is  the  only  economic  sector  whose  GHG  emissions  are  higher  than  in 
1990  and  have  been  growing  again  since  2013  despite  the  mitigation  efforts 
already undertaken. On the one hand, this reflects the close link between economic 
activity and transport as well as the important role that mobility plays in the life of 
citizens:  between 1995 and 2018, the number of tonne-kilometres  and passenger-
kilometres transported in the EU-27 has increased by more than 30 %. 

Figure 14: Evolution of transport activity in tonne- and passenger-kilometres in the EU 

Source: EU Transport in Figures. Statistical Pocketbook 2020. Index values based on 1995 = 100. 
(1) : passenger cars, powered two-wheelers, buses & coaches, tram & metro, railways, intra-EU air, intra-EU sea 
(2) : road, rail, inland waterways, oil pipelines, intra-EU air, intra-EU sea 

187 Own calculations based on CE Delft (2019), ‘Handbook on the External Costs of Transport. Version 2019’  

70 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                      
GDP: at constant year 2005 prices and exchange rates   

284. On  the  other  hand,  it  also  shows  that  the  sector  remains  overly  dependent  on  oil 
due to insufficient progress in overcoming technological constraints, in developing 
and  deploying  cost-effective  clean  alternatives,  as  well  as  in  switching  to  more 
sustainable transport modes. This is due to the combined effect of market failures, 
inadequate  market  signals,  regulatory  shortcomings  and  insufficient  policy 
alignment  at  various  governmental  levels,  in  addition  to  weak  international 
cooperation.  Furthermore,  transport  is  not  a  uniform  industrial  sector,  but  covers 
various modes operating under very different conditions, which in turn influences 
their decarbonisation potential. 

285. Based  on  the  analysis  underlying  the  2030  Climate  Target  Plan  and  in  line  with 
Communication on the European Green Deal, in order to reach the objective of a 
climate-neutral economy by 2050, a reduction of 90% in transport CO2 emissions 
must be achieved, relative to 1990 levels. This raises the ambition of the existing 
target of 60% (from 2011 White Paper) and requires significant efforts compared 
to developments under current trends and policies (i.e. projected to deliver around 
18% emissions reductions by 2050 relative to 1990).  

286. All transport modes need to become more sustainable as all are indispensable for 
our  interconnected  transport  system  (see  below  sections  4.1.1  and  4.1.2).  In  the 
meantime,  as  each  mode  is  in  the  process  of  decarbonising,  more  sustainable 
alternatives need to be made available now (see below section 4.1.3 and 4.1.4), and 
there  is  a  need  to  rethink  the  incentives  for  transport  users  to  make  more 
sustainable choices (see below section 4.1.5).  

287. This  will  lead  to  a  transport  system  in  which  people  and  businesses  have  the 
freedom to choose their preferred ways of moving or doing business, while making 
all transport modes cleaner in a technologically neutral manner, and providing the 
right mix of incentives to support sustainable choices.  

Key externalities of transport188 

288. Transport is a key enabling service to the whole economy contributing to economic 
growth  and  to  satisfy  the  mobility  needs  of  people.  Efficient  and  accessible 
transport  services  are  crucial  to  ensure  the  connectivity  of  our  societies,  from 
remote  areas  such  as  the  outermost  regions  to  our  largest  cities.  Yet,  transport 
activities also produce negative externalities to the environment and to society. In 
the  context  of  pressing  environment  and  climate  challenges,  updated  and 
comprehensive  assessment  of  the  external  costs  of  transport  activities  are  an 
important aspect to be taken into account by EU transport policy.  According to the 
“Handbook  on 
the 
Commission,  the  external  environmental  costs  of  transport  (linked  to  GHG 
emissions,  local  air  pollution,  noise,  energy  production,  habitat  damage189), 
together with  the costs of congestion and crashes sum  up in  the EU-27 to almost 
EUR 900 billion annually190. 

the  External  Costs  of  Transport”,  commissioned  by 

289. Road transport causes more than 80% of such external costs (approximately EUR 
550  billion  in  passenger  transport  and  EUR  170  billion  for  freight).  These  costs 

188 With the exception of water pollution, all environmental impacts mentioned in this section are included in the EUR 900 billion 
figure mentioned. 
189 Air pollution and habitat damage costs include the impact on biodiversity. 
190 Own calculation based on CE Delft (2019), ‘Handbook on the External Costs of Transport. Version 2019’. All figures in this 
section exclude UK. 

71 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                      
include  road  crash  costs  (almost  EUR  250  billion),  congestion  costs  (some  EUR 
230 billion) and environmental costs (almost EUR 250 billion).  
290. Other modes cause smaller total external costs than road191192, namely: 

  Maritime: almost EUR 90 billion (mostly air pollution) 
  Aviation: almost EUR 40 billion (mostly climate change) 
  Rail: less than EUR 20 billion (the biggest being noise) 
 

Inland waterways: around EUR 3 billion (mostly air pollution). 

291. The high modal share of road is clearly an important reason for this, but road also 
shows  the  highest  average  external  costs  across  modes  (costs  per  passenger-
kilometre  and  ton-kilometre).  Looking  at  passenger  transport,  cars  show  the 
highest  average193  costs194.  Buses  and  coaches,  trains  and  aviation  have  similar 
magnitude of average external costs, three to four times less than cars. The lowest 
external  costs  are  shown  by  rail:  the  average  costs  of  aviation  and  buses  and 
coaches is 10% higher than in rail.  

292. As far as freight is concerned, lorries show the highest average costs, followed by 
inland waterways (roughly 50% less than lorries), rail (roughly two third less than 
lorries) and maritime (80% less than lorries).  

293. The  above  includes  all  external  costs  of  individual  transport  modes,  i.e. 
environmental  costs  as  well  as  crashes  and  congestion,  with  the  exception  of 
walking and cycling where data at EU level is not available.  

294. It should be noted  that road users, while producing the highest costs to the society, 
are  also  those  who  “pay  back”  the  most,  in  terms  of  transport  related  taxes  and 
charges195.    Overall,  road  is  the  mode  paying  the  highest  share  of  its  total  costs, 
nearly  50%.  However,  there  are  good  economic  reasons  to  exclude  fixed 
infrastructure costs from the cost coverage indicators, therefore charging only the 
marginal infrastructure costs. Excluding them leads to the rail sector showing the 
highest cost coverage of 80% (with high-speed rail paying even more than it costs 
to society). 

Environmental costs 
295. Looking  at  just  the  environmental  costs196,  cars  and  aviation  are  the  passenger 
modes with the highest external costs. Rail and collective road transport (all buses 
and coaches) produce the smallest environmental external costs, both in total and 
per passenger kilometre, with the exception of active modes. Compared with cars 
and aviation, the level of environmental costs in euro per kilometre is about 30% 
lower for rail, and 50% lower for collective road transport197. On the freight side, 
lorries  have  the  highest  environmental  footprint,  closely  followed  by  inland 

191 Note that, for aviation and maritime, the handbook focuses on a sample of (air)ports. The costs presented here are then scaled up 
at  EU-27  level  and  include  extra-EU  activity.  The  EU-27  figures  should  be  taken  with  caution,  as  scaling-up  assumes  that  the 
sample of (air)ports is representative of the Union as a whole. 
192 Congestion/scarcity costs are not included for modes other than transport for methodological reasons 
193  The  average  cost  is  driven,  for  all  modes,  by  the  occupancy  factor.  For  cars,  this  is  on  average  equal  to  about  1.6 
passenger/vehicle. Increasing the number of passenger per vehicle could lead to a significant cost reduction. 
194 Motorcycles are actually the passenger mode with the highest external costs per passenger-kilometre, due to high accident and 
noise costs. However, the total cost of motorcycles is limited due to their low modal share. 
195 In the EU-27, road users paid more than EUR 300 billion in 2016, while rail users around EUR 18 billion and inland waterway 
users  about  EUR  200  million.  Source:  CE  Delft  (2019),  Overview  on  Transport 
in  Europe 
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/studies/transport-taxes-and-charges-in-europe-isbn-978-92-79-99561-3.pdf 
196 These costs are already included in EUR 900 billion figure. They include climate change, air pollution, noise and habitat damage 
costs. 
197 Motorcycles are the mode with the highest average environmental costs due to their high noise costs, but their total costs remain 
limited. 

taxes  and  charges 

72 

 
                                                      
waterway  transport.  On  average,  rail  environmental  costs  are  almost  half  and 
maritime almost one third of those of lorries. 

296. In  2018,  the  transport  sector  contributed  30.5%  of  the  EU-27  final  energy 
consumption198.  24.6%  of  GHG  emissions  (31.8%  above  the  1990  levels)  in  the 
EU  stemmed  from 
international  maritime.  Including 
international maritime, the share of GHG emissions was 27.2% in 2018. 

transport,  excluding 

297. The share of GHG emissions from  transport (including international  aviation and 
maritime)  in  EU-27  total  GHG  emissions  has  increased  from  16.5  %  in  1990  to 
27.2%  in  2018.  The  level  of  GHG  emissions  from  road  transport  alone  have 
increased  by  26.8%  between  1990  and  2018  and  accounts  for  71.8%  of  the 
transport GHG emissions.199 

Figure 15: Share by mode in total transport GHG emissions, including international 
bunkers, in the EU-27 in 2018200 

Source: Transport in the EU. Statistical Pocketbook 2020. For railways, indirect emissions from electricity consumption are 
excluded. 

298. When  looking  at  GHG  emissions  from  individual  modes  of  transport  in  the  EU, 
and including international bunkers, the rise in emissions from aviation since 1990 
stands  out,  whereas  the  railway  sector  has  been  the  only  transport  mode  to 
consistently reduce GHG emissions since 1990. 

198 Final energy consumption excludes international maritime and aviation. 
199European  Commission,  ‘EU  Transport 
fundings/statistics/pocketbook-2020_en 
200 European Commission, ‘EU Transport in Figures. Statistical Pocketbook  
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/facts-fundings/statistics/pocketbook-2020_en  

in  Figures.  Statistical  Pocketbook  2020’.  https://ec.europa.eu/transport/facts-

73 

 
 
 
 
                                                      
Figure 16: Evolution of GHG emissions by transport mode in the EU-27 (1990 = 1)  

Source:  European Commission  (2020)  :  EU  Transport  in  Figures.  Statistical  Pocketbook  2020.  For  railways,  indirect  emissions 
from electricity consumption are excluded. 

299. Road  transport  is  by  far  the  mode  with  the  highest  total  GHG  emissions, 
accounting  for  around  72%  of  the  total  transport  emissions.  After  a  decrease 
mainly  caused  by  the  2008-2009  economic  crisis  and  high  oil  prices,  emissions 
from  road  transport  started  growing  again  in  2014,  at  an  average  yearly  pace  of 
1.5%.  

300. Aviation  has  a  much  lower  share  in  GHG  emission  than  road  transport,  but 
emissions  would  increase  as  air  traffic  is  projected  to  increase  in  Europe  and 
worldwide.201  According  to  the  data  reported  by  Members  States  to  the  United 
Nations  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change,  the  CO2  emissions  of  all 
flights  departing  from  EU  and  EFTA  increased  from  88  to  171  million  tonnes 
(+95%)  between  1990  and  2016.  Between  2014  and  2017,  average  fuel  burn  per 
passenger  kilometre  flown  has  reduced  at  an  average  rate  of  2.8%  per  annum. 
However, this efficiency gain was not sufficient to counterbalance the increase in 
CO2  emitted  due  to  the  growth  in  the  number  of  flights,  aircraft  size  and  flown 
distance.  During  the  2013-2017  phase,  the  total  verified  CO2  emissions  from 
aviation  covered  by  the  EU  ETS  increased  from  53.5  Mt  in  2013  to  64.3  Mt  in 
2017, equal to an average increase of 4.7% per year. Beyond CO2, although more 
research is needed to fully understand the non-CO2 climate impacts from aviation 
activities, these have recently been estimated to be at least as important in total as 
those  of  CO2  alone.  The  Commission  has  provided  and  updated  analysis  of  the 
science and potential policy measures to address these non-CO2 drivers of climate 
change.202 

201 See section 2.2 for the description of the Baseline scenario.  
202 COM(2020) 747 final, “Updated analysis of the non-CO2 climate impacts of aviation and potential policy measures pursuant to 
EU Emissions Trading System Directive Article 30(4)”  

74 

 
 
 
                                                      
301. EU  waterborne  transport  consists  of  two  very  distinct  segments:  international 
shipping  (ships  calling  from  third  countries  in  EU  ports  and  sailing  between  two 
EU  Member  States)  and  inland  navigation  (ships  sailing  within  the  same  EU 
Member  State,  including  inland  waterways).  GHG  emissions  from  inland 
navigation are subject to the EU Effort Sharing Regulation. Member States have to 
implement measures to fulfil the Union’s target of reducing its GHG emissions by 
30% below 2005 levels in 2030 in these sectors.  

302. Data  collected  from  the  EU  MRV  system203  confirmed  that  CO2  emissions  from 
maritime  transport  are  substantial,  with  over  138  million  tonnes  of  CO2  released 
into  the  atmosphere  in  2018.  This  represents  over  3.7%  of  total  EU-27  plus  UK 
CO2  emissions.  While  compared  to  other  modes  of  transport,  maritime  transport 
remains the most carbon efficient mode of transport per ton km, the reported CO2 
emissions in the EU, based on the fuel sold and also accounting for the inland and 
domestic navigation, make up around 14% of the total transport CO2 emissions. 
303. The  EU's  CO2  emissions  from  inland  and  domestic  navigation204  are  about  16 
million  tonnes  of  CO2  and  have  decreased  over  time  (about  26%  below  1990 
levels).  This  decrease  is  related  to  the  renewal  of  the  fleet,  increase  in  energy 
efficiency (EU standards for inland waterways have been put in place since 2003). 

304. On  the  contrary,  CO2  emissions  from  the  EU-related  international  shipping  (i.e. 
from ships calling to EEA ports from third countries and ships sailing between 2 or 
more EU Member States) have continued to increase, and are currently around one 
third  above  1990  levels.  This  increase  is  primarily  driven  by  the  growth  in 
transport  activity  and  the  current  heavy  reliance  on  oil  derivatives  despite  the 
uptake of energy efficient technologies.  

305. Direct  GHG  emissions  from  rail  transport  are  very  low,  due  to  the  majority  of 
traffic running on electrified lines, representing only 0.4% of transport emissions. 
On  this  basis,  shifting  substantially  more  passengers  and  freight  to  rail  would 
significantly contribute to decarbonising transport. 

Air pollution 

306. Transport is responsible for more than half of all nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions 
and significantly contributes to the total emissions of the other air pollutants. The 
situation  has  improved  though  compared  to  the  past.  NOx  emissions  from  road 
transport decreased by 37% between 2007 and 2017 (non-road transport: -20%).205 
During  the  same  period,  emissions  of  total  particulate  matters  that  have  diameter 
less than 2.5 micrometre (PM2.5) by road transport decreased by 42%, in non-road 
transport  the  decrease  was  28%  in  the  same  timeframe206.  Sulphur  oxides  (SOx) 
emissions from road transport and non-road transport were 70% and 60% lower in 
2017 than in 2007, respectively. 

307. SOx and NOx are known to be harmful to human health since they are precursors of 
PM  pollution  and  ozone,  causing  respiratory  symptoms  and  lung  disease.  In  the 
atmosphere,  SOx  can  lead  to  acid  rain,  which  harms  crops,  forests  and  aquatic 
species,  and  contributes  to  the  acidification  of  the  oceans.  NOx  deposition  in  the 

203 More insight into the CO2 emissions from maritime transport in 2019 can be found in the Commission report [EU MRV report] 
published in May 2020. C(2020) 3184 final.  
204 Covering inland waterway transport and domestic maritime navigation 
205 Source: Eurostat. 
206 However, the emissions of nanoparticles are not well represented by this metric and some new technologies could have led to an 
increase. Diesel and gasoline direct injection vehicles have been found to emit huge amounts of nanoparticles. 

75 

 
 
                                                      
oceans  and  seas  induces  eutrophication,  which  together  with  acidification,  is  a 
severe pressure on marine biodiversity. 

308. The  contribution  of  road  transport  to  harmful  NOx  concentrations  is  particularly 
problematic  in  urban  areas,  because  emissions  occur  close  to  the  ground  and 
mainly  in  densely  populated  areas.  In  “street  canyons”,  i.e.  streets  enclosed  by  a 
high density of usually tall buildings and high levels of road traffic, NOx emissions 
can be very high, leading to exceedances of air quality standards. 95% of the EU 
urban  population  remain  exposed  to  pollutant  concentrations  above  WHO  air 
quality guidelines207 and majority of EU Member States are in breach of the Union 
air quality legislation.  

309. While gaseous emissions from transport are mostly arising from fuel combustion, 
other  releases  contribute  to  both  non-methane  volatile  organic  compounds 
(NMVOCs) (from fuel evaporation) and primary PM pollution, namely from road 
transport  -  exhaust  and  non-exhaust  (from  tyre-  and  brake-wear,  and  road 
abrasion).  Combustion  engines  remain  a  significant  source  of 
transport 
nanoparticles.  The  relative  importance  of  non-exhaust  emissions  for  the  larger 
sizes  of  particles  has  increased  since  the  introduction  of  vehicle  particulate 
abatement  technologies,  which  reduced  exhaust  emissions208  for  some  types  of 
vehicles. 

310. Maritime  transport  also  contributes  significantly  to  air  pollution  in  Europe209  as 
ship  combustion  generates  SOx,  NOx  and  particulate  matter.  Even  though 
international and EU legislation has lowered the allowed sulphur content of marine 
fuels,  these  continue  to  contain  more  sulphur  than  fuels  used  on  land.  NOx 
reducing engine standards or retrofits are also much less stricter.  

311. Air transport also contributes to air pollution especially in the vicinity of airports. 
More  precisely  air  quality  is  influenced  not  only  by  the  emissions  from  aircraft 
engines, but also from other sources such as ground operations, surface access road 
transport  and  airport  on-site  energy  generation  and  heating.  The  most  significant 
emissions  related  to  health  impacts  from  aviation  activities  are  particulate  matter 
(PM),  nitrogen  oxides  (NOx)  and  volatile  organic  compounds  (VOCs)210.  The 
ICAO technical  design standards limit  emissions of NOx,  carbon monoxide (CO) 
and  unburnt  hydrocarbons  (HFC)211.  The  general  EU  air  quality  legislation212 
establishing limit values for the certain pollutants (mainly NOx and particulates in 
the case of aircraft emissions) also applies at and around airports. 

312. Black  Carbon213  is  of  great  relevance  for  the  EU  in  view  of  the  on-going 
developments  of  the  EU's  air  quality  policy  and  the  interlinkages  to  EU  climate 
change policy. EU legislation addresses Black Carbon in the Directive 2008/50/EC 
of the European Parliament and of the Council on ambient air quality and cleaner 
air  for  Europe  by  setting  binding  air  quality  standard  requirements  on  PM10  and 

207 Source: European Environment Agency. 
208  European  Environment  Agency  (2018):  Progress  of  EU  Transport  Sector  Towards  its  Environment  and  Climate  Objectives. 
TERM Briefing. 22.11.2018: https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/transport/term/term-briefing-2018. 
209  A  Commission-funded  research  study  by  IIASA  (“The  potential  for  cost  effective  air  emission  reductions  from  international 
shipping  through  designation  of  further  Emission  Control  Areas  in  EU  waters  with  focus  on  the  Mediterranean  Sea")  provides 
emission projections to 2030 and beyond, while also noting that the designation of an Emission Control Area in the Mediterranean 
Sea  could, by  2030, cut  emissions  of  SO2  and  NOx  from  international  shipping  by  80  and  20 percent,  respectively,  compared  to 
current legislation.    https://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/Shipping_emissions_reductions_main.pdf 
210 European Aviation Environmental Report (2019) https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/2019-aviation-environmental-

report.pdf  

211 https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Pages/LAQ_TechnologyStandards.aspx 
212 Directive 2008/50/EC: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX:32008L0050  
213 Black carbon are a constituent of particular matter dispersed in the air, and they are a major component of soot. 

76 

 
                                                      
214.  Although  the  Directive  excludes  PM  emissions  from  international 
PM2.5
maritime shipping, future reductions of PM emissions from maritime transport due 
to the reduction of sulphur content and uptake of alternative fuels will contribute to 
a  decrease  of  long  range  transboundary  air  pollution  affecting  background 
concentrations  of  air  pollution  in  the  EU.  The  joint  Communication  by  the 
Commission  and  the  High  Representative  of  the  Union  for  Foreign  Affairs  and 
Security Policy215 on An Integrated European Policy for the Arctic of April 2016 
outlines that the EU should contribute to international efforts to limit emissions of 
short-lived  climate  pollutants  such  as  black  carbon  and  methane  that  further 
accelerate climatic changes in the Arctic216.  

Noise pollution 

313. Noise  pollution  is  the  second  largest  health  problem  due  to  transport  in  the  EU, 
with  road  traffic  being  the  most  widespread  source  of  environmental  noise.  An 
estimated 120 million Europeans are affected by noise levels dangerous for health, 
mostly from road transport,  above the  recommended WHO levels217.  48,000 new 
cases of ischaemic heart disease are causes each year by transport, and 6,500,000 
citizen have their sleep heavily disturbed218. It is also harmful to nature and certain 
eco-systems exposed to it219.  

314. Transport related noise generates an external  cost  of about  EUR  60 billion in  the 
EU-27.220  According  to  the  latest  data  reported  under  the  Environmental  Noise 
Directive221,  around  100  million  people  in  the  EU  are  exposed  to  average  sound 
levels of 55 dB or higher during the day, evening and night for road traffic noise, 
20 million for railway noise and 4 million for aircraft noise. Similarly, road traffic 
is  by  far  the  biggest  source  of  environmental  noise  during  night  time,  affecting 
around  75  million  people,  followed  by  rail  with  15  million  people,  air  with  1.5 
million  people  and  industrial  noise  with  0.5  million  people.  While  aircraft  noise 

214  In  addition,  the  1999  Gothenburg  Protocol  to  the  1979  Geneva  Convention  on  Long  Range  Transboundary  Air  Pollution 
(CLRTAP) to which the EU is a Party, as amended in 2012, explicitly includes obligations to reduce Black Carbon in the context of 
achieving binding  emission  targets  for  particulate  matter  (PM2.5).  The new  National  Emission Ceiling  Directive  (Directive  (EU) 
2016/2284 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 14 December 2016 on the reduction of  national emissions of certain 
atmospheric  pollutants,  amending  Directive  2003/35/EC  and  repealing  Directive  2001/81/EC)  which  entered  into  force  on  31 
December 2016 sets national reduction commitment for total PM2,5 emissions for Member States to be attained by 2020 and 2030 
and  transposes  the  Protocol's  reporting  requirements,  stressing  that  in  the  National  Air  Pollution  Control  Programmes,  Member 
States shall prioritise emission reduction measures for black carbon. 
215 JOIN(2016)21 final 
216 To that end, the Commission agreed on the new 'Black Carbon in the Arctic' project (EUR 1.5 million ) under the Partnership 
Instrument. The project aims to initiate a process of setting clear commitments and/or targets on major black carbon sources with the 
potential to affect the Arctic, and to move forward a process leading to enhanced international cooperation on black carbon policy in 
the  Arctic  region.  The  project's  main  focus  of  action  is  to  address  BC  emissions  from  gas  flaring  and  from  domestic  heating. 
However, BC emissions from international shipping are also addressed in the project. 
217https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/noise/publications/2018/environmental-noise-guidelines-for-
the-european-region-2018 
218 https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/environmental-noise-in-europe 
219  A  growing  number  of  studies  have  indicated  that  (man-made)  noise  influences  the  wellbeing  of  animals.  Noise  may  result  in 
behavioural  change  in  animals,  leading  to  reduced  reproductive  success  and  species  density  (Dutilleux,  2012).  Due  to  the  novel 
nature of research in this area, it is not yet possible to quantify these effects  (Dutilleux, 2012). Source:  Internalisation Handbook 
2019. 
220CE Delft (2019): ), ‘Handbook on the External Costs of Transport. Version 2019’.  
https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9781f65f-8448-11ea-bf12-01aa75ed71a1 
221 Directive 2002/49/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 25 June 2002 relating to the assessment and management 
of environmental noise - Declaration by the Commission in the Conciliation Committee on the Directive relating to the assessment 
and management of environmental noise, OJ L 189, 18.7.2002, p. 12; and Commission Directive (EU) 2015/996 of 19 May 2015 
establishing common noise assessment methods according to Directive 2002/49/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council, , 
OJ L 168, 1.7.2015, p. 1. 

77 

 
 
                                                      
does not affect a wide geographical area, it causes more stress and disrupted sleep 
than road or railway at the same noise levels.222 

315. Although  modern  electric  passenger  trains  running  on  well-maintained  track  are 
relatively  quiet,  older  freight  wagons  equipped  with  cast  iron  brake  blocks  can 
generate  a  significant  noise  issue,  in  particular  since  many  freight  trains  are 
operated  at  night.  This  is  a  public  health  and  political  concern  in  some  Member 
States, and leads to substantial opposition to increases in rail freight. Retrofitting of 
freight  wagons  with  composite  brake  blocks  (replacing  cast  iron  brake  blocks)  is 
the  most  efficient  way  of  addressing  the  matter223,224.  The  banning  of  “noisy” 
freight wagons from the busiest rail freight routes from December 2024 as a result 
of  the  revised  Technical  Specification  for  Interoperability  for  Noise  will  largely 
address the European dimension of the issue.     

316. In  spite  of  technological  improvements  which  have  made  aircraft  less  noisy,  the 
problem  of  aircraft  noise  in  the  EU  has  continuously  increased  in  the  past  years. 
This is due to the continuous overall growth of air traffic in Europe as well as the 
expansion  from  population  affected  by  aviation  noise,  linked  to  demographic 
growth and weak land use planning. Noise from aircraft is the third largest source 
of noise pollution affecting EU citizens, and research shows that people  perceive 
noise from aircraft as more annoying than noise from road or rail, at the same noise 
level exposure. It is estimated that in 2017, more than 2.5 million EU citizens were 
subject to 55 dB noise level from aircraft, an increase of 12% as compared to 2005. 
With  the  expected  continued  overall  growth  of  air  traffic  in  Europe  in  the  next 
decades  -  generating  more  flights  in  particular  at  medium  size  airports,  the  total 
population affected by critical noise levels from aircraft will likely further increase, 
especially  at  regional  airports.  Aircraft  noise  at  night  time  is  also  a  growing 
concern.  In  2017,  around  1  million  EU  citizens  were  exposed  to  at  least  50  dB 
aircraft noise levels at night, an increase by 13% as compared to 2005. 

Water pollution 
317. According  to  a  recent  report  from  the  European  Environment  Agency225,  the 
increased  threats  posed  by  overexploitation  of  marine  resources,  pollution  and 
climate  change  call  for  urgent  action  to  bring  Europe’s  seas  back  to  good 
condition, and we are running out of time to reverse decades of neglect and misuse. 

318. Illegal  discharges  of  oily  waste,  hazardous  substances,  sewage  and  garbage  from 
ships harm the marine & river environment. The use of antifouling agents for ship 
paint  is  another  source  of  emissions  of  toxic  substances,  generally  organic 

222  EEA  (2018):  ‘TERM  Briefing  ‘Progress  of  EU  Transport  Sector  Towards  its  Environment  and  Climate  Objectives’. 
https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/transport/term/term-briefing-2018.  
223 DG MOVE Staff Working Document (SWD) on Rail Noise, December 2015 
224 The Technical Standards for Interoperability (TSI) Regulation on noise,(Commission Regulation (EU) 1304/2014, as revised by 
Regulation  (EU)  2019/774  adopted  in  May  2019),  bans,  from  December  2024,  the  use  of  “loud”  freight  wagons  from  the  most 
intensely used freight routes in Europe, the so-called “quieter routes” (defined as a part of the railway infrastructure with a minimum 
length of 20 km on which the average number of daily operated freight trains during the night-time is    higher than    12).    Since 
the wagon fleet is used interchangeably across Europe, and many freight flows use the “quieter routes” for part of their journey, the 
2019  provisions  will  effectively  result  in  a  phasing  out  of  cast-iron  block  wagons  from  general  use.        Limited  exceptions  are 
provided for special cases. 
Apart from the amended TSI Noise, the Commission has also made available CEF budget to co-finance the retrofitting of freight 
wagons: EUR  20 million in 2014, EUR 20 million in 2016 and EUR 35 million in 2019, totalling EUR 75 million in three calls. 
The  three  CEF  calls  resulted  in  applications  worth  EUR  53  million  and  have  resulted  in  around  207  000  freight  wagons  being 
retrofitted. Further, Implementing Regulation (EU) 2015/429 provides the modalities for Member States wishing to introduce noise-
differentiated track access charges. Such schemes have been introduced by  The Netherlands, Austria, Germany, Czechia (starting 
2020) and a similar State-aid scheme has been introduced by Italy. The Implementing Regulation is currently being evaluated. 
225 https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/europes-seas-face-uncertain-future 

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pollutants,  metal-organic  compounds  or  heavy  metals.  In  maritime  transport  and 
inland waterways, waste water and ballast water leads to the pollution of seawater, 
lakes  or  rivers.  The  emissions  mainly  occur  in  ports  but  also  affects  inland 
waterways, and can lead to substantial water and sediment pollution226.  

319. In  inland  navigation  there  is  no  common  rule  at  EU  level  on  protecting  rivers 
against  wastes  from  vessels.  The  absence  of  a  policy  and  regulatory  framework 
creates  a  “gap”  in  relation  to  the  protection  of  waters  and  it  would  require  close 
cooperation with relevant international organizations to address this. 

320. Maritime transport and tourism (cruises) can also be a significant source of plastic 
pollution,  as  demonstrated  also  by  its  accumulation  along  shipping  routes.  The 
accidental loss of 342 containers in 2019 in the North Sea and the resulting waste 
dissemination is another case in point. The EU is aware of the problem and, further 
to adopting a new Directive on Port Reception Facilities focused on reducing litter 
from  shipping  and  fishing  as  a  follow-up  of  its  Strategy  for  Plastics  and  the 
Circular Economy  Action Plan, is  considering additional initiatives to  tackle sea-
based  sources  of  marine  litter,  including  microplastics,  in  close  cooperation  with 
international partners and other relevant initiatives, notably the IMO Action Plan to 
address marine plastic litter from ships. 

Biodiversity loss 

321. Transport  can  also  cause  several  significant  negative  impacts  on  ecosystems  and 
biodiversity.  The  design  and  use  of  road,  rail  and  waterborne  transport 
infrastructure alters the quality and connectivity of habitats and can create physical 
barriers to the movement of plants and animals between habitat areas. Species can 
be  injured  or  killed  by  vehicles,  become  isolated  by  habitat  fragmentation  or 
incapable  of  fulfilling  their  life  cycle,  lose  their  habitat,  or  exhibit  behavioural 
changes that put their survival at risk, such as feeding on or near roads, or changes 
in migratory behaviour including for migratory fish, which can prevent them from 
reproducing and consequently exerts high pressure on the survival of populations. 
Fragmentation of rivers and deterioration of their hydrological and morphological 
conditions is one of the main pressure affecting freshwater in the EU. Barriers in 
rivers can also prevent the flow of sediments and consequently affect downstream 
water bodies. The development and use of transport infrastructure can also increase 
pollution levels in surrounding habitats.  

322. Noise and light pollution can affect the breeding success of many species of birds 
and mammals  (e.g. bats) as well as their feeding, migration and wintering needs. 
Noise  from  ships  can  alter  the  capacity  of  fish  and  marine  mammals  to  locate 
themselves, their capacity to search for food and to escape from predators. 

323. Furthermore,  transport  infrastructure  and  vehicles  can  serve  as  a  vector  for  the 
spread  of  invasive  alien  species  (through  hull  fouling,  ballast  water  in  relation  to 
maritime  and  inland  waterways  transport,  stowaway  species  attached  to  vehicles, 
infrastructure  facilitating  dispersal  of  species  across  physical  and  environmental 
barriers  (e.g.  a  mountain  range  now  crossed  by  a  tunnel,  new  canals  etc.).227 
Invasive  alien  species  have  significant  impacts  on  native  species  through 
competition, predation, etc., may cause alteration and/or loss of native habitats, or 
even impact overall ecosystem functioning.  

226 There is also a risk of remobilising those pollutants during dredging operations. 
227 European Environment Agency (2015): TERM Report 2015. 

79 

 
 
                                                      
324. The loss and fragmentation of habitats through land use for transport infrastructure 
are estimated to amount to EUR 37 billion annually at EU-27 level.228 The biggest 
share  of  these  costs  is  produced  by  road  infrastructure.  However,  railway 
infrastructure  also  tends  to  have  a  high  impact  on  habitat,  as  well  as  inland 
waterways. 

325. Transport  activities  lead  to  other  negative  impacts  on  soil  and  water  through 
abrasion of brakes, tyres, road surfaces and rail track (road, rail). Tyre abrasion in 
particular  is  one  of  the  largest  sources  of  microplastics,  ending  up  in  the  food 
chain.  Finally  the  deposit  of  combustion  emissions  from  air  onto  land  and  into 
water  may  be  the  cause  of  severe  instances  of  eutrophication  and  acidification 
hampering linked biodiversity. 

Insufficient physical activity 

326. Over-reliance  on  individual  cars,  in  particular  in  urban  areas,  is  linked  with 
insufficient  levels  of regular physical  activity  for adults and children, and related 
health  problems,  including  premature  deaths229.  A  review  of  28  health  impact 
studies  related  to  greater  active  transport  and  less  car  use  found  people  who 
switched  from  using  a  car  to  active  transport  received  substantial  health  benefits 
from increased physical activity. This benefit well outweighed any risks cyclists or 
pedestrians  might  experience  from  exposure  to  air  pollution  or  being  involved  in 
motor  vehicle  crashes230.  Being  physically  inactive  is  associated  with  many  non-
diseases, 
as 
communicable 
overweight/obesity,  dementia,  type  2  diabetes  and  stress  and  anxiety.  One  study 
found  that  people  who  get  insufficient  exercise  have  a  20-30%  increased  risk  of 
all-cause mortality compared with people who exercise for 30 minutes a day. The 
European  Code  against  Cancer231,  an  initiative  of  the  European  Commission, 
informs  individual  citizens  about  actions  they  can  take  for  themselves  or  their 
families to reduce their risk of cancer. The Code calls for people to be physically 
active in everyday life and to limit the time spent sitting. 

cardiovascular 

diseases, 

cancer, 

such 

327. Walking  and  cycling  (combined  with  public  transport  or  shared  mobility  if 
necessary) provide the opportunity for city dwellers, particularly those who do not 
have time for other exercise, to incorporate more physical activity into their daily 
routines232.  The  Commission’s  sustainable  urban  mobility  planning  (SUMP) 
concept  and  published  guidelines  provide  an  appropriate  approach  to  facilitate 
active  mobility  in  cities.  In  addition,  the  WHO’s  Health  Economic  Assessment 
Tool (HEAT)233 estimates the value of reduced mortality that results from regular 
walking or  cycling and should  be part of comprehensive cost–benefit analyses  of 
transport interventions or infrastructure projects, in particular at urban level. 

Degradation of public space 

228 CE Delft (2019), ‘Handbook on the External Costs of Transport. Version 2019’.  
https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9781f65f-8448-11ea-bf12-01aa75ed71a1 
229  In  order  to  avoid  major  negative  health  consequences,  WHO  recommends  for  adults  at  least  30  minutes  a  day  of  moderate 
physical activity, such as walking or cycling: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/physical-activity  
230 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743516000402  
231 https://cancer-code-europe.iarc.fr/index.php/en/ 
232 Recognising positive impact of regular physical activity, including on increased productivity and reduced absenteeism, a rising 
number of employers offer (financial) support schemes for their employees to cycle to work 
233https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Transport-and-health/activities/guidance-and-tools/health-
economic-assessment-tool-heat-for-cycling-and-walking  

80 

 
 
 
                                                      
328.  Road and parking infrastructure for individual cars contributes to soil sealing and 
takes  up  valuable  space  that  could  be  used  to  create  green  areas  as  well  as 
pedestrian  and  cycling  infrastructure,  which  are  beneficial  for  people’s  physical 
and mental well-being234. The average car is parked more than 90% of the time.235 
In  addition,  the  COVID-19  pandemic  has  highlighted  the  issue  of  distribution  of 
public  space  in  favour  of  motorised  traffic:  with  cars  accounting  for  ~30-40%  of 
journeys  and  occupying  ~70-80%  of  public  space  in  European  cities,  there  was 
often  insufficient  space  left  for  people  to  walk  and  cycle  whilst  complying  with 
social distancing requirements.  

329. While visual pollution per se is a lesser concern than safety or noise, in the future it 
is possible that frequent sighting of remotely-piloted or autonomous aircraft in the 
sky, in particular in urban environments, may negatively impact social acceptance 
of their operations, and heighten concerns, justified or not, about privacy, safety or 
security. Therefore public acceptance is  key for  new technologies such  as drones 
and Urban Air Mobility.  

4.1.1  Zero-  and  low-emission  vehicles  and  renewable  and  low  carbon  transport 

fuels  

330. Transport modes prevalent  for our mobility and transport must be sustainable for 
the  objective  set  in  the  Communication  on  the  European  Green  Deal  is  to  be 
attained. To achieve this, it is necessary to boost the production and uptake of low- 
and zero- emission vehicles, vessels and aircraft, supported by renewable and low-
carbon  fuels  for  road,  waterborne,  air  and  rail  transport.  There  is  need  to  ensure 
that the sustainable vehicles and fuels are supplied by the industry, put in place the 
necessary  infrastructure,  and  incentivise  demand  by  end-users.  It  will  also  be 
necessary  to  support  research  and  innovation  on  competitive  and  future-proof 
technologies, products and services. 

331. The European Green Deal stresses the need to ramp up production and distribution 
of renewable and low carbon fuels.  It  notes the relevance of complete alternative 
fuels  connectivity  throughout  the  EU  and  sets  the  objective  of  having  1  million 
public recharging and refuelling points in place by 2025.  

332. This  is  because  EU-27  transport  still  relies  on  oil  for  about  93%  of  its  energy 
needs.  Most  energy  consumed  in  road,  air  and  waterborne  transport  is  fossil  fuel 
based. Road transport depended on oil products for 94% of its energy use and rail 
transport  for  23%  in  2018.  While  air  transport  relies  only  on  kerosene,  inland 
navigation uses few types of fuels, but all petroleum based. International shipping 
is capable of using a variety of oil based fuels, mainly heavier fuel oils due to their 
lower  cost.  In  addition  a  few  ships  use  liquefied  natural  gas  fuel  because  of  its 
lower  pollution  characteristics.  The  total  EU  oil  import  bill  is  estimated  at  EUR 
227.5 billion in 2018236.  

234 https://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/ecosystems/docs/Table%201%20GI.pdf  
235The  European  car  is  parked  92%  of  the  time  according  to  the  report  ‘Ellen  MacArthur  Foundation,  2015,  Growth  Within:  A 
Circular Economy Vision for a Competitive Europe. 
https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/assets/downloads/publications/EllenMacArthurFoundation_Growth-Within_July15.pdf  
236 SWD (2020) 951 final. 

81 

 
                                                      
Figure 17: Evolution of final energy consumption by sector in the EU (million tonnes of oil 
equivalent)237 

333. After  reaching  its  peak  in  2007,  oil  consumption  in  transport  (including 
international  aviation  and  maritime)  reduced  by  12.2%  during  2007-2013  (-2.1% 
per  year). Since 2014, oil consumption has been following an upward trend at an 
average rate of 1.9% per  year. The  growth in  transport activity, the shift  towards 
larger cars and the low oil prices were the main reasons for the increasing energy 
consumption.  

Figure 18: Transport sector consumption of petroleum products & biofuels, 2000-18238 

Source: Eurostat Energy Balances 

334. Until  2017,  the  average  fuel  efficiency  of  new  light  duty  vehicles  has  been 
improving over time and this has helped to improve the fuel economy of the whole 

237 Source: European Commission (2020): Transport in Figures. Statistical Pocketbook 2020. 
238 Figure 1.3 in Cambridge Econometrics (2020) Oil Dependency in the EU 
https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/publications/2020_CE_Oil_Dependency_in_EU_report.pdf 

82 

 
 
 
 
                                                      
fleet.  However,  a  rise  in  registrations  has  been  observed  in  the  past  years  in  the 
sports  utility  vehicle  (SUV)  segment.  In  comparison  with  other  car  types,  SUVs 
tend  to  have  characteristics  such  as  large  frontal  areas,  greater  mass  and  higher 
drag coefficients that have a negative impact on fuel consumption. Following the 
“Dieselgate” affair of 2015, there has also been a marked shift toward gasoline cars 
which traditionally have had lower fuel efficiency than diesel ones239. These trends 
have  contributed  to  an  overall  increase  in  average  fuel  consumption  and  CO2 
emissions  of  the  new  passenger  car  fleet.  In  2019  (provisional  data),  new  cars 
registered  in  the  EU,  UK,  Norway  and  Iceland  had  average  CO2  emissions  of 
122.4 g CO2/km (4.3 g/km higher than in 2016).  

335. The  sales  of  plug-in  hybrid  electric  passenger  vehicles  (PHEV)240  and  battery-
electric passenger vehicles (BEV) in the EU have steadily increased over the past 
years.  According  to  incomplete  2020  data  from  the  European  Alternative  Fuels 
Observatory,  the  EU  vehicle  fleet  currently  includes  around  1.7  million  battery-
electric  and  plug-in  hybrid  light  duty  vehicles241  (Category  M1  and  N1).  This  is 
more  than  four  times  more  than  in  2015  (about  280,000).  The  size  of  the  light 
electric vehicle fleet also exceeded 157,000. Registration of electric powered-two-
wheelers  (e-PTWs)  have  been  rapidly  growing  in  Europe242.  However,  electric 
vehicle deployment is still uneven in the Union. In 2019, the Netherlands (15.2%) 
and  Sweden  (5.1%)  were  the  only  Member  States  with  comparatively  higher 
market  share  for  electric  cars  in  new  vehicle  sales,  while  in  2020  more  Member 
States are witnessing higher growth rates.  

Figure 19: Number of BEV and PHEV passenger cars in 2020 

239 On average, the CO2 emissions of diesel cars (127.0 g CO2/km) are now very close to those of petrol cars (127.6 g CO2/km). 
The difference of 0.6 g CO2/km was the lowest observed since the beginning of the monitoring. 
240 PHEV unfold their emission reduction potential only in electric mode. Member States increasingly report issues around a low use 
of PHEVs in electric mode. 
241 Category M1 and N1 vehicles. 
242 Source: FIM. 

83 

 
  
                                                      
Source: European Alternative Fuels Observatory243 

336. As  regards  Compressed  Natural  Gas  (CNG)  light-duty  vehicles,  Italy  was  the 
Member State with the largest fleet (close to 1.1 million), whereas fleets in other 
Member States were considerably smaller.  The light-duty vehicle fleet  fuelled by 
CNG  in  the  whole  EU  has  increased  slightly  since  2015,  from  about  1.2  million 
vehicles to 1.36 million vehicles. 

337. Heavy-duty  vehicle  fleets  in  the  bus  and  coach  segment  included  approximately 
20,000  CNG/Liquefied  Natural  Gas  (LNG)  buses  and  coaches,  approximately 
2,200 battery-electric buses and around 100 hydrogen buses.  Zero-emission buses 
are  rapidly  growing  in  importance,  also  due  to  the  requirements  of  the  revised 
Clean  Vehicles  Directive.  In  2019,  15%  of  all  new  bus  registrations  were 
alternatively-powered  vehicles,  according  to  ACEA.  Concerning  heavy-duty  road 
freight  transport,  natural  gas  currently  represents  the  main  alternative  fuel,  with 
approximately  24,000  CNG  and  4,000  LNG  lorries  in  operation  in  2019.  While 
zero-emission  lorries  are  still  in  an  early  stage  of  market  development, 
demonstration  fleets  of  electric  lorries  for  regional  use  profiles  are  already  in 
operation.  

338. In  addition  to  various  national  and  European  support  schemes  and  measures  to 
boost R&I towards clean vehicles such as the successful European Green Vehicles 
Initiative,  the  European  CO2  standards  have  been  the  key  driver  of  the  uptake  of 
the low and zero-emission light-duty vehicles.  

339. Current CO2 emission performance standards require average CO2 emissions from 
new cars and vans to be respectively 37.5% and 31% lower in 2030 compared to 
2021; in the case of lorries, average 2030 CO2 emissions must be 30% lower than 
the 2021 baseline. For all three categories, emission reductions of 15% are required 
by 2025. These standards will further drive low and zero-emission vehicles in the 
market.  

340. While rail is already largely electrified, it is not economic to electrify some parts 
of the network (e.g.  rural  branch lines or production  site feeder lines), while it is 
difficult or impossible for others (e.g. parts of ports where catenary would interfere 
with cargo handling). Hydrogen, and battery electric rolling stock would allow the 
elimination of remaining diesel  operations. Such  alternative  fuels  powered trains, 
whose  development  is  supported  by  Shift2Rail  Joint  Undertaking  and  Fuel  Cells 
and  Hydrogen  Joint  Undertaking  (FCH  JU),  can  bring  rail  to  zero  direct  CO2 
emissions,  decrease  air  pollution,  and  improve  rail’s  multimodal  performances 
(hybrid locomotives244 can switch from an electrified line to a terminal eliminating 
the need for additional shunting locomotives).  

341. Substantial  emission  reduction  has  been  achieved  in  the  aviation  sector  by 
improving the fuel efficiency of aircraft engines and design.  The sustained policy 
and  industrial  efforts  to  improve  aviation  sustainability  have  allowed  to  reduce 
noise  from  aircraft  and  fuel  burn  per  passenger  by  respectively  14%  and  24% 
between  2005  and  2017.  However,  the  overall  sustained  growth  of  air  traffic 
(+60%  over  the  same  period)  has  continued  to  outpace  the  environmental 
improvements.  Substantial  public  and  private  investments  and  adequate  policy 
frameworks are needed to accelerate the decarbonisation of air transport.  

243 https://www.eafo.eu. 
244 Hybrid stock (electric with diesel generator available) provides a shorter term fix avoiding diesel operations where electric power 
is available. 

84 

 
                                                      
342. New aircraft models provide 20% to 25% of improved fuel efficiency compared to 
the previous generation.245  Promoting fleet modernisation by an earlier retirement 
from  circulation  of  old  aircraft  and  their  replacement  with  a  significantly  more 
fuel-efficient aircraft can generate significant CO2 per each flight in the transition 
until  breakthrough  clean  aircraft  are  developed  and  commercially  available  for 
deployment.  Ensuring  the  capacity  of  European  industry  to  increase  the 
environmental  performance  of  aircraft  would  have  an  important  impact  on  the 
greening  of  global  air  transport  as  European  aircraft  today  represent  45%  of  the 
worldwide  commercial  fleet  and  European  engines  power  70%  of  single-aisle 
aircraft in the world.  

343. In the longer-term, new disruptive technologies need to be developed and deployed 
in  the  market,  notably  to  unleash  the  full  potential  of  sustainable  fuels  and 
otherwise  provide  for  new  clean  methods  of  propulsion  and  power  generation  in 
aircraft.     

344. This  requires  considerable  investment  in  research  and  innovation,  such  as 
envisaged under the Horizon Europe programme by the proposed set-up of a Clean 
Aviation  partnership  with  the  aviation  industry  and  further  investment  in 
collaborative research in clean aviation technology. The partnership should follow 
in  the footsteps of the Clean Sky Joint Undertaking, which had a participation of 
1.7  billion  EUR  from  the  EU  budget246.  The  priority  focus  should  be  on  the 
development  of  technologies  that  can  generate  the  largest  impact  on  overall 
aviation  emissions,  notably  hybrid  and  full  electric  prolusion,  ultra-efficient 
aircraft configurations, and the development of sustainable alternatives such as the 
emerging potential of hydrogen powered aircraft. Accompanying measures would 
be necessary to develop infrastructure and production capacity for hydrogen. 

345. The  stimulus  for  the  development  of  new  technologies  should  be  seen  in 
conjunction  with  the  measures  taken  relating  to  innovation,  production  and 
deployment  of  sustainable  aviation  fuels  (SAF).  This  is  because  in  order  to 
decrease significantly its emissions, the aviation sector will especially need to rely 
on  the  use  of  liquid  SAF  in  the  years  to  come.  Indeed,  whereas  other  transport 
modes  have  access  to  various  sources  of  energy  including  renewable  energy, 
aviation is still almost exclusively reliant on liquid fossil fuel, due to the physical 
properties of flying. 

346. Concerning the nature of waterborne transport and the availability of alternative 
fuels  in  particular,  it  is  important  to  distinguish  between  transport  on  sea 
(maritime) and inland waterways. The main distinction in maritime transport is to 
be  done  between  deep  sea  shipping  (long  distance  and  high  energy  density 
requirements)  and  short-sea  shipping,  incl.  domestic  voyages  (shorter  distances 
with more technological alternatives available due to the nature of traffic, regular 
port calls, etc. requiring therefore a lower energy density).  

347. The  environmental  challenges  faced  by  the  maritime  sector  impose  to  continue 
improving  the  energy  efficiency  of  the  fleet,  the  rapid  advancements  in  the 
development and deployment of innovative low or zero emissions technologies and 
the widespread use of sustainable alternative fuels247. This requires the cooperation 

245 Based on: International Council on Clean Transport, “Fuel burn of new commercial jet aircraft: 1960 to 2019”, September 2020; 
ICAO environmental report 2019, Chapter 1 Aviation and environment outlook. 
246 In a Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda issued by an aviation industry stakeholder group with reference to the envisaged 
partnership under Horizon Europe, the overall investment effort needed to achieve climate goals is estimated at 12 billion EUR over 
a 10 year period (2020-2030), within the aim to develop marketable products towards 2035 and achieving climate neutrality in 2050. 
247 See also Council Conclusions on "EU Waterborne Transport Sector – Future outlook: Towards a carbon-neutral, zero accidents, 
automated and competitive EU Waterborne Transport Sector” https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/44311/st08648-en20.pdf 

85 

 
                                                      
of all actors in the maritime sector: fuel suppliers, vessel and engine manufacturers, 
shipping  operators,  port  authorities  and  service  providers,  etc.  in  particular  to 
demonstrate commercially viable zero-emissions vessels by 2030. Whereas various 
technologies,  including  the  use  of  hydrogen  or  electric  propulsion,  are  being 
successfully tested for short journeys, the situation is  more complex for  deep-sea 
shipping,  which  has  significantly  higher  power  needs,  requires  much  greater 
autonomy and the availability of global network of refuelling stations.      

348. The  Commission  is  preparing  the  “FuelEU  Maritime”  initiative,  with  the  aim  to 
deliver  a  legislative  proposal  at  the  beginning  of  2021  to  boost  the  demand  for 
renewable  and  low  carbon  fuels  in  maritime  transport.  Reduction  of  GHG 
emissions from international shipping is also being addressed at global level at the 
International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the EU is one of the key drivers of 
the IMO’s work in this area. The agreement at IMO on new mandatory measures 
setting  carbon  intensity  performance  targets  for  all  existing  vessels  has  been 
reached  in  November  2020248.  The  new  measures  add  further  requirements  to 
existing energy efficiency measures, which state that all vessels must put in place 
the so-called Ship  Energy  Efficiency Management  Plan (SEEMP) to  demonstrate 
their  efforts  to  improve  ship’s  energy  efficiency  and  all  vessels  built  after  2013 
must  abide  by  compulsory  energy  efficiency  standards  (the  Energy  Efficiency 
Design Index, EEDI). In parallel, preparatory work has commenced to support the 
uptake  of  alternative  low-  and  zero-emission  fuels  in  shipping,  with  the  EU 
advocating a lifecycle (well-to-wake) approach to GHG emissions. 

349. In accordance with the first EU Annual Report on Carbon Dioxide Emissions from 
Maritime  Transport  (data  collected  in  2018  in  the  framework  of  the  MRV 
regulation), more than 90% of all monitored ships have reported the use of heavy 
fuel  oil  (HFO).  In  terms  of  amounts  of  fuel  consumed,  HFO  represented  a  little 
more  than  70%  of  the  fuel  consumed  by  the  monitored  fleet  in  2018.  Gas  oil 
accounted for only 10% of the total fuel consumed and another 10% was covered 
by light fuel oil and diesel oil taken together. The global limit on sulphur in marine 
fuel has been reduced which means that more of these cleaner fuels are likely to be 
used. These types of low sulphur fuels are generally used for auxiliary engines and 
boilers when ships are berthing in EU ports or during the operation of a ship in SOx 
Emission  Control  Areas  (SECAs).  The  use  of  Liquefied  Natural  Gas  (LNG) 
represents only 3% of the total amount of fuel consumed. It is mostly used by LNG 
and  gas  carriers.  Even  though  the  number  of  LNG-fuelled  vessels  continued  to 
increase  in  2019  across  all  ship  types,  these  remain  a  very  small  fraction  of  the 
fleet.  In  accordance  with  DNV  GL’s  Alternative  Fuels  Insight  database,  the  total 
number  of  commissioned  LNG  ships  worldwide  has  just  passed  the  threshold  of 
300 in 2019 with about half of them already in  operation and the remaining ones 
on order. 

350. At present, there is yet no consensus on the most realistic pathway to decarbonise 
the  maritime  sector  as  a  number  of  fuel/technology  combinations  could  become 
more competitive over time. In addition, the solutions are likely to be different for 
individual ships, different ship types and market segments. The key objective is to 
support the fuels  that lead to  the most GHG emissions  reduction from a “well to 
wake” perspective, while being sustainable, available at sufficient scale in the mid 
and  long  term,  safe  and  affordable.  On  the  short-term,  advanced  biofuels  and 

248 https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/pages/42-MEPC-short-term-measure.aspx  

86 

 
                                                      
biogas  are  likely  to  be  the  first  sustainable  alternative  fuels  available  to  shipping 
companies.  

351. While LNG delivers significant air quality benefits compared to other fossil fuels 
(reductions  in  SOx,  NOx  and  PM  emissions),  it  remains  a  fossil  fuel  and  present 
limited  advantages  in  terms  of  GHG  emissions.  It  is  therefore  important  to 
continue  supporting  a  broader  basket  of  fuel  and  technologies  including 
electric/hybrid propulsion, advanced liquid biofuels, bio-LNG, liquid and gaseous 
synthetic  fuels  as  well  as  the  use  of  hydrogen.  Support  measures  should  aim  at 
boosting demand for them, their production and distribution.  

(availability  of  network 

352. Due  to  the  nature  of  the  sector,  the  situation  for  inland  waterways  is  similar  to 
short-sea  shipping 
lower  power 
requirements)  and  alternatives  can  be  developed  and  deployed  more  quickly 
(including  for  instance  with  regards  to  electricity,  and  hydrogen).  In  2018,  more 
than 15,000 inland cargo vessels were registered in Europe. Looking at the vessels’ 
age structure, inland navigation fleet is relatively old: the majority of vessels were 
constructed before 2000 and before 2003 there were no provisions for the emission 
limits from engines used in IWT. 

infrastructure, 

Figure 20: Number of inland vessels per year of construction in the Belgian and German 
fleet 

Source: CCNR based on German Waterway and Shipping administration, Belgian Ministry of Transport. Included are dry 
cargo vessels, liquid cargo vessels and push&tug boats. 

Figure 21: Number of inland vessels per year of construction in the Danube countries 

353. There has been a slow innovation  uptake concerning greening in  the  IWT sector. 

The relatively slow pace of innovation is mainly caused by:  

87 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

 

the  long  serviceable  lifetime  of  engines  in  inland  vessels  (30,000  to  over 
200,000 hours, depending on the engine type) which translates to ca. 40 years 
of operation;  

the small and specific market for inland vessels and their engines, making it a 
less attractive market for engine manufacturers; 

lack  of 

the 
environmental performance of the engines;  

incentives  for  vessel  operators/owners 

to 

increase 

the 

The  lack  of  information  on  existing  possibilities  for  greening,  in  particular 
regarding  their  consequences  for  actual  emissions  (and  how  they  relate  to 
possible  emission  regulation)  and 
the  vessel 
operators/owners. 

the  business  case  of 

354. The number of newly built and repowered vessels in the EU is limited to several 
dozen per year. Compared to other shipping markets, inland market potential is low 
and the emission limits are the most stringent. International engine manufacturers 
thus often prioritise their development capacity for engineering engines for markets 
with  greater  sales  potential.  This  hinders  the  modernisation  of  the  powertrains  in 
the European fleet. 

355. Whilst potential solutions to enable clean climate neutral shipping exist, these are 
largely  premature  and  investment  in  research  and  innovation,  such  as  envisaged 
under  the  Horizon  Europe  programme  through  the establishment  of  the  Zero 
Emission  Waterborne  Transport  partnership,  is  required.    It  is  envisaged  that  the 
partnership  focus  on  decarbonised  clean  shipping  and  seek  to  demonstrate 
deployable  solutions,  appropriate  for  all  main  ship  types  by  2030.  Addressing 
efficiency improvement, electrification, renewable energies such as wind, take up 
of  new  fuels  such  as  hydrogen  within  new  and  retrofitted  marine  and  inland 
waterway ships.  

4.1.1.1  Fuel supply 

356. The  deployment  of  vehicles,  vessels  and  aircraft  as  well  as  infrastructure  and 
services  needs  to  happen  everywhere  in  the  EU,  in  an  interoperable  manner. 
However,  there  are  a  number  of  issues  that  prevent  the  uptake  of  sustainable 
transport 
suitable 
refuelling/recharging  network  and  low  or  fragmented  demand  for  the  sustainable 
fuels and vehicles/vessels, influenced also by pricing and tax regimes. 

limitation  of  appropriate 

lack  of  a 

supply, 

fuels: 

357.  The  lack  of  appropriate  supply  is  particularly  relevant  for  certain  fuels,  namely 
sustainable  biofuels,  e-fuels,  clean  hydrogen,  and  biogas.  Apart  from  electricity 
from renewable sources there is still considerable lack of availability of renewable 
energy  sources  for  transport:  the  EU  share  of  renewable  energy  in  transport 
reached 8.3% in 2018249.  

358. Air  and  waterborne  transport  must  have  priority  access  to  sustainable  liquid  and 
gaseous  fuels,  since  suitable  alternatives  do  not  exist  for  these  modes,  and  these 
fuels are the furthest from mass production and use.  

249  The  share  is  defined  according  to  the  Directive  2009/28/EC  on  promotion  of  the  use  of  energy  from  renewable  sources 
established accounting criteria for the 2020 targets on renewable energy sources. This is not the same as the share in unit of energy 
used.  

88 

 
                                                      
359. Sustainable  aviation  fuels  (SAF)  are  fully  compatible  with  current  aircraft 
technology and already certified up to 50% of the fuel used in a flight. Although 
they  have  the  potential  to  make  an  important  contribution  to  tackling  GHG 
emissions  in  aviation  (emission  savings  can  go  up  to  80%  compared  to 
conventional  jet  fuel),  this  potential  is  still  largely  untapped.  Current  production 
and use of SAF is below 0.1% of total jet fuel consumption in the EU. While the 
Renewable Energy Directive and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme contain some 
mechanisms intended to reward the use of SAF, these measures have so far limited 
impact to boost SAF supply and demand.  

360. As  a  concrete  deliverable  of  the  European  Green  Deal,  the  Commission  is 
preparing the “ReFuelEU Aviation” initiative, with the aim to deliver a legislative 
proposal  at  the  beginning  of  2021  to  boost  the  sustainable  aviation  fuels  market. 
Several  Member States  also  intend to  promote SAFs in  their national  legislations 
(such as Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden).  

361. Sustainable  advanced  biofuels  are  not  produced  at  scale,  and  most  biofuel 
consumption  happens  at  a  low  percentage  blending  with  conventional  fuels. 
Power-to-liquid and power-to-gas fuels from renewable sources are available only 
at  demonstration  scale.  While  there  could  be  sufficient  demand  for  all  types  of 
sustainable  transport  fuels  catering  for  all  the  key  products  along  the  refining 
process,  there  is  still  a  lack  of  investments  in  production  capacity,  also  due  to 
limited sustainable production. Volumes are limited and the resulting product price 
is  not  competitive  with  the  fossil-based  alternatives,  even  factoring  in  the  carbon 
price and other existing incentives. In a vicious circle, the resulting lack of demand 
at  such  prices  does  not  trigger  the  necessary  investments  in  feedstock  renewable 
electricity  production  and  refining  capacity  that  could  bring  about  the  required 
economies  of  scale.  A  long-term  policy  framework  with  strong  incentives  and 
closer  industrial  cooperation  appear  therefore  necessary  to  break  this  circle  and 
boost confidence for major investments, particularly for those transport modes that 
have  no  other  technologically-viable  and  proportionate  current  decarbonisation 
alternative.  

362. These  issues  also  affect  waterborne  and  long-distance  heavy-duty  road  transport. 
While battery- and fuel-cell electric vehicles already represent a viable option for 
buses and for urban and regional delivery vehicles, alternatives to diesel for long-
haul lorries and coaches are not yet widely available. Battery- and fuel-cell electric 
long-haul  lorries  and  coaches  are  now  in  market  development,  with  331  battery-
electric new registered heavy goods vehicles (N2 and N3 categories) in 2019, with 
larger numbers expected on the EU markets in the next 5 years.  

363. On 

the  other  hand,  LNG  vehicles  would  require  significant  efficiency 
improvements  in  order  to  meet  the  required  CO2  emission  targets  in  2030  and 
would  need  to  find  solutions  to  significantly  reduce  the  emitted  air  pollutants. 
Synthetic  fuels  and  biogas,  that  may  have  very  high  cost  and  renewable  energy 
production  needs  are  not  available  at  scale  either,  and  similarly  to  sustainable 
advanced biofuels, they also require fully addressing the issue of urban air quality. 
Shipping can be flexible in the types of deployable advanced biofuels and may be 
able  to  use  lower  cost  fuel  options  which  would  not  be  deployable  in  other 
transport  modes.  An  example  is  bio-ammonia,  which  however,  is  an  extremely 
hazardous substance and would have to be handled accordingly.  

89 

 
4.1.1.2  Fuel infrastructure 

364. Equally  significant  is  the  challenge  that  the  lack  of  a  suitable  network  of 
recharging  and  refuelling  infrastructure  poses.  Two-thirds  of  EU  cars  park 
overnight on the street or in public car parks250. There are in particular four issues 
in relation to this: 

the  formal  requirements  of 

1)  While there has been considerable progress in some Member States, there are 
still not enough recharging and refuelling points in all Member States and for 
all  modes.  While 
the  Alternative  Fuels 
Infrastructure  Directive251  (whereby  Member  States  have  to  adopt  a  policy 
framework for the development of the market as regards alternative fuels in the 
transport sector and to make sure that an “appropriate number” of recharging or 
refuelling  points  are  available)  appear  to  be  fulfilled,  infrastructure  planning 
under  national  policy  frameworks  in  many  Member  States  risks  not  to  be  in 
line  with  the  required  update  of  zero  and  low-emission  vehicles  and 
infrastructure  needed  to  meet  the  increased  ambitions  under  the  European 
Green Deal.  

2)  There  is  no  comprehensive  network  connectivity  across  borders  and  modes 
with  minimum  coherence  in  the  EU.  Recharging  and  refuelling  points  are 
distributed unevenly among Member States and within single Member States. 
Consumers  and  businesses  also  perceive  the  uneven  development  of  different 
alternative  fuel  recharging  and  refuelling  stations  as  a  barrier  in  acquiring  or 
investing in vehicles powered by alternative fuels. 

3)  Users of an alternative fuels road vehicle often face problematic conditions for 
using  that  infrastructure,  particularly  when  departing  from  their  home 
fuelling/recharging  model.  This  is  particularly  relevant  in  the  area  of  electric 
mobility, where there is a lack of coherent and transparent user information on 
availability, accessibility and usability of recharging stations as well as a broad 
variety  of  approaches  to  using  and  paying  at  these  stations,  in  particular  for 
cross-border users.  

4)  If not managed in a smart way, there is a risk that the rapidly increasing fleet of 
electric vehicles may lead to congestion in the electricity grid, in particular at 
peak times and at distribution level252.  

365. To  illustrate  the  first  issue,  in  2019,  the  territory  of  the  EU  hosted  more  than 
200,000  publicly  accessible  filling  stations253  for  alternative  fuels,  out  of  which 
about 194,000 were electric charging points, including around 22,000 fast-charging 
points. There are also  125 fuelling stations for hydrogen, as well as almost 4,000 
filling  stations  for  natural  gas,  out  of  which  249  LNG  refuelling  stations,  and 
34,000 LPG filling stations available.254  

250 JRC, 2012, Driving and parking patterns of European car drivers --- a mobility survey  
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC77079/driving%20and%20parking%20patterns%20-

%20final_online.pdf 
251 Directive 2014/94/EU 
252 The widespread use of electrified vehicles will lead to the need to increase electricity production. Section 5 shows however  that 
on  a  well  to  wheel  basis,  CO2  emissions  will  decrease  in  all  policy  scenarios.  This  is  due  to  the  reduction  in  the  energy  use  in 
transport and higher uptake of renewables and low carbon fuels driven by policies, but also due to the power generation sector that 
is set to achieve decarbonisation by 2050. The power generation mix plays an important role in this time perspective considering the 
large scale electrification of transport. 
253  There  were  about  75000  petrol  stations  in  the  EU  at  the  end  of  2018.  Source:  FuelsEurope  https://www.fuelseurope.eu/wp-
content/uploads/SR_FuelsEurope-2019-48.pdf 
254 Source: European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO). 

90 

 
                                                      
366. Whereas  the  number  of  alternative  fuel  filling  stations  has  increased  since  2011, 
the  number  of  electric  vehicles  per  charging  point  is  increasing  too:  on  average, 
one  charging  point  serves  seven  vehicles.255  However, 
the  situation  of 
recharging/refuelling  infrastructure  differs  across  EU  countries.  As  Figure  22 
shows,  the  infrastructure  is  not  spread  evenly,  and  parts  of  the  EU  transport 
network  are  not  well  equipped.  Hydrogen  refuelling  infrastructure  is  still  thinly 
spread with up to 125 stations (with a large concentration in Germany). It is clear 
that in  view of the expected acceleration of electric vehicle ramp  up, the pace of 
infrastructure roll out needs to increase: the European Green Deal set the indicative 
target of 1 million public recharging and refuelling points by 2025.  

Figure 22: Situation of the publicly accessible recharging points in 2018 across EU256 

Source: EAFO 

4.1.1.3  Other incentives 

367. In  recent  years  an  increase  in  average  CO2  emissions  of  new  vehicles  has  been 
observed,  together  with  a  diverse,  but  still  low,  share  of  low  and  zero-emission 
vehicles among Member States. With this respect, the CO2 emission standards will 
drive manufacturers to invest in zero and low emission vehicles, to accelerate their 
deployment. 

368. Several  experiences  across  different  EU  Member  States  and  third  countries  show 
that  reducing  registration  and  vehicle  taxes  for  those  vehicles  is  a  very  effective 
means of triggering consumer demand, in addition to other demand-side incentives 
such as energy taxes, company car taxation257, scrappage and purchasing schemes 

255 Ibid. 
256 Source: State of the Art on Alternative Fuels Transport Systems in Europe. Own elaboration based on data from (EAFO, 2019) 
257  T&E,  2020,  Company  cars:    how  European  governments   are 
https://www.transportenvironment.org/publications/company-cars-how-european-governments-are-subsidising-pollution-and-
climate-change  

subsidising  pollution  and   climate  change 

91 

 
 
 
                                                      
and  premiums,  purchase  subsidies  or  favourable  infrastructure  charges,  etc.  CO2-
based  road  charging  as  set  out  in  the  Eurovignette  Directive  currently  under 
negotiation would be an important incentive for greening fleets. 

369. Additional  policy  measures  could  promote  the  uptake  of  zero  emission  vehicles 
and sustainable fuels. Public procurement can play a key role in particular in those 
segments  –  such  as  buses  and  fleets  –  where  it  represents  a  major  share  of  the 
market.  For  example  the  pooled  procurement  by  several  cities  of  clean  and  safe 
vehicles  (buses,  refuse  collection  vehicles  etc.)  along  with  financial  support  for 
infrastructure  measures  and  retrofitting  of  vehicles,  for  instance  with  turning 
assistants could be instrumental.  

370. Concerning public transport in particular, the Clean Vehicles Directive258 and the 
Clean Bus Europe Platform will help the transition towards low- and zero-emission 
options. By requiring a minimum share of public procurement of cars, vans, lorries 
and  buses  to  be  covered  through  clean  (and  zero-emission)  vehicles,  the  Clean 
Vehicles Directive  will help  mobilise this potential in  the period 2021-2030. The 
Directive must be transposed by August 2021, and it sets ambitious targets for two 
five-year periods (2021-2025 and 2026-2030). Post-2030 targets will be set as part 
of a 2027 revision. 

371. In  addition,  given  the  significant  additional  costs  of  zero-emission  solutions 
available  for  long-distance  lorries,  the  adaptation  of  the  Weights  and  Dimension 
Directive259  for  allowing  zero-emission  heavy-goods  vehicles  additional  weight 
and  dimensions  on  freight  tonnage  could  increase  the  competitiveness  of  zero-
emission vehicles.  

372. Transporting  more  goods  with  fewer  lorries  might  increase  efficiency  and 
sustainability260.  So-called  European  Modular  Systems  (EMS),  which  are  longer 
lorries of up to 25.25 metres typically used on inter-urban roads between transport 
centres, allow reducing fuel consumption and emissions by up to 15%261 and at the 
same time congestion.  

373. Specifically,  the  legislation  on  the  maximum  weights  and  dimensions  of  road 
vehicles  provides  for  limited  circumstances  where  derogations  to  the  maximum 
dimensions of the lorries can be granted. The use of such vehicles, in particular the 
modular concepts, in international transport is however very restricted while their 
infrastructure.  Today, 
use  would  be 
adjacent Member  States  who  wish  to  use  these  derogations  to  authorise  longer 
lorries to  cross the border between them can only  do so if specific conditions  are 
met.  Currently,  use  of  modular  lorries  is  allowed  in  Finland  and  Sweden,  and  is 
being  trialled  in  Denmark,  the  Netherlands,  Belgium  Spain,  Portugal,  Czech 
Republic and some German Länder.  

long  haul  on  certain 

justified  for 

4.1.1.4  Pollutant standards, batteries and roadworthiness 

374. The Commission  responded to  the Dieselgate affair by overhauling its legislative 
framework  for  type  approval  and  market  surveillance,  introducing  new  tests  in 

258 Directive (EU) 2019/1161 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 June 2019 amending Directive 2009/33/EC on 
the promotion of clean and energy-efficient road transport vehicles, OJ L 188, 12.7.2019, p. 116. 
259  Council  Directive  96/53/EC  of  25  July  1996  laying  down  for  certain  road  vehicles  circulating  within  the  Community  the 
maximum authorized dimensions in national and international traffic and the maximum authorized weights in international traffic, 
OJ L 235, 17.9.1996, p. 59.  
260  International  Transport  Forum  (2019)  ‘Transport  Outlook  2019.  OECD  Paris’.  https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/transport/itf-
transport-outlook-2019_transp_outlook-en-2019-en 
261 ACEA, 2019, High Capacity Transport. https://www.acea.be/uploads/publications/ACEA_Paper-High_Capacity_Transport.pdf 

92 

 
                                                      
vehicle  type  approval  and  during  in-service  conformity  for  checking  real  driving 
emissions (RDE) on the road262 and is currently preparing a legislative proposal for 
stricter emission limits for cars, vans, buses and lorries.  

375. A  proposal  on  the  EURO  7  is  expected  in  the  second  half  of  2021.  The 
Commission  is  studying  all  the  relevant  issues,  such  as  the  simplification  of  the 
legislation,  technological  neutrality,  adaptation  to  connectivity  and  automation, 
durability and lifetime compliance, stricter emission limits covering all conditions 
of  use,  and  possible  inclusion  of  pollutants  not  yet  regulated.  The  proposal  is 
expected to include also requirements for in-vehicle battery durability.  

376. The Commission proposal on batteries, including EV batteries, establishes several 
sustainability criteria. EV batteries should comply with those criteria to enter (or to 
be  allowed  in)  the  Union  market.  Moreover  the  end  of  life  of  such  batteries, 
including second-life, recycling efficiencies and materials recovery targets are also 
covered. Concerning the sustainability criteria, they cover several aspects along the 
entire life cycle of the batteries, such as the extraction of the minerals used in their 
manufacturing  (the  responsible  sourcing  or  supply  chain  due  diligence),  the 
obligation on incorporation a certain level of recycled materials when batteries are 
manufactures  and  the  carbon  footprint  of  the  batteries.  Other  aspects  cover 
labelling  and  information  disclosure  to  end-users  and  economic  operators  and 
extended producer responsibility.  

377. Following the new stricter emissions limits, more effective emission testing should 
also be part of periodic technical inspections and technical roadside checks  of 
vehicles. This concerns in particular testing for NOx and particulate matter. 

378. Particles emitted by diesel engines are filtered by the diesel particulate filter (DPF), 
while  currently  all  gasoline  direct  injection  (GDI)  vehicles  also  filter  particle 
emissions  via  a  gasoline  particulate  filter  (GPF).  The  current  framework  requires 
the  visual  inspection  of  the  filters  as  a  method  to  verify  if  the  filter  is  leaking, 
absent or defective. However, this method has proven to be ineffective, as the filter 
is often inaccessible (hidden or too hot to check) and the casing is often filled with 
some material to hide the traces of the filter removal. According to a Dutch study 
of  2016263,  in  approximately  5-7%  of  diesel  cars  with  a  DPF,  the  filter  was 
removed  or  defective.  While  this  does  not  seem  a  lot,  a  well-functioning  DPF 
filters out about 99% of the so-called micro particles. These particles are so small 
that  they  enter  the  human  body  through  inhalation  via  the  lungs  and  have  severe 
negative health effects.  

379. The  impact  on  the  overall  fleet  emissions  is  very  large,  for  instance  a  study  on 
vehicles  in  Prague  found  that  1%  of  a  fleet  with  a  broken  DPF  doubles  the 
emissions of the whole fleet, while 1% with a removed DPF due to excess engine-
out PM (x10) emissions increase fleet emissions by a factor 10. The most effective 
solution  would  be  the  tailpipe  testing  of  the  exhaust  gas  verifying  the  particle 
numbers.  

380. The main reason to tamper with DPF appears to be related to the very significant 
cost  of the  replacement  filter, amounting  to  several  thousand euros especially for 

262  Regulation  (EU)  2018/858  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  30  May  2018  on  the  approval  and  market 
surveillance of motor vehicles and their trailers, and of systems, components and separate technical units intended for such vehicles, 
amending Regulations (EC) No 715/2007 and (EC) No 595/2009 and repealing Directive 2007/46/EC (Text with EEA relevance.) 
14.6.2018; OJ L 151/1 
263  Kadijk,  G.,  Spreen,  J.S.  and  Mark,  P.J.  van  der,  Investigation  into  a  Periodic  Technical  Inspection  test  method  to  check  for 
presence and proper functioning of  Diesel Particulate Filters in light duty diesel  vehicles. Delft, 10 June 2016. TNO report  TNO 
2016 R10735 

93 

 
                                                      
heavy  duty  vehicles.  In  an  older  vehicle  where  the  DPF  has  not  been  installed 
during  the  manufacturing,  retrofits  can  be  very  effective  in  reducing  emissions, 
eliminating  up  to  90  percent  of  pollutants  in  some  cases,  and  Germany,  Sweden 
and the Netherlands have experience  with national retrofitting schemes for DPFs. 
However  retrofitting  may  not  be  an  appropriate  solution  as  long  as  the  cost  of 
replacement DPFs has not been lowered enough to make it a reasonable repair in 
light of the market value of the vehicle in question. 

381. After years of research and development conducted by some Member States, there 
is now a method and suitable equipment at periodical technical inspections to test 
particle  number  (PN),  which  indicate  a  malfunctioning  of  the  DPF.  Belgium, 
Germany and the Netherlands will introduce testing from 2021. The introduction of 
the  new  testing  method  for  PN  at  EU  level  will  require  the  revision  of  the 
roadworthiness  framework,  but  in  the  meantime  the  Commission  is  closely 
following  the  Member  States’  experiences  and  it  is  looking  at  possible  ways  to 
support the Member States’ efforts. 

382. Another issue to consider in this context is tampering with the vehicle’s Selective 
Catalytic  Reduction  (SCR)  system,  mainly  a  problem  linked  to  heavy  goods 
vehicles. The SCR system uses AdBlue, a liquid developed to react in the SCR and 
decrease  NOx  emissions  from  diesel  engines.  Vehicles  are  in  principle  protected 
from  running  without  AdBlue,  but  systems  exist  that  bypass  the  vehicle  controls 
(AdBlue killers). This is done in order to save its cost which can be a significant 
saving  especially  for  operators  of  fleets  of  lorries.  Such  tampering  is  already  a 
reason  for  failure  of  a  technical  roadside  inspection  of  a  vehicle,  if  detected. 
However,  in  the  absence  of  a  suitable  NOx  testing  method  and  equipment,  it  is 
difficult  to  detect  the  often  very  sophisticated  tampering.  The  Commission  is 
closely following the progress in the development of such testing methods in view 
of  possible  legislative  action.  However,  it  is  also  not  enough  to  rely  on  the  legal 
framework only. The practice of some Member States combining several measures, 
such  as  high  fines,  on-site  checks  of  transport  company  fleets,  withdrawal  of 
transport  operator  and  transport  manager  licences,  follow-up  actions  after 
identified manipulations appear to  yield good results. The Commission is helping 
to  spread  this  know-how,  via  Member  States’  experts  in  the  Roadworthiness 
Committee. 

383. The  development  and  supervision  of  harmonised 

for 
roadworthiness  checks,  as  well  as  coherence  with  vehicle  type  approval,  at  EU 
level would have great added value, but requires additional technical capacity and 
resources.   

testing  methods 

384. Tyres  are  an  important  consideration  in  road  safety.   Nevertheless,  tyres  are  a 
significant cause of noise above 30 km/h and low performing tyres increase noise 
and its health effects. Regulating rolling resistance affects the energy consumption, 
and  emissions  of  vehicles  as  well,  thus  again  tyres  are  key  in  reducing  carbon 
footprint. Last but not least tyres are a main cause of the microplastics released in 
the environment. Different factors influence the abrasion rate of tyres. Tyre design, 
type  of  their  raw  materials  and  external  parameters  such  as  roads,  vehicle 
characteristics that can be regulated as well as ambient meteorological conditions 
to be taken into account, are some of these factors. 

385. The  Report  from  the  Group  of  Chief  Scientific  Advisors264  calls  attention  to  the 
growing  scientific  evidence  on  the  hazards  of  the  uncontrolled,  irreversible,  and 

264 https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/research_and_innovation/groups/sam/ec_rtd_sam-mnp-opinion_042019.pdf 

94 

 
                                                      
long-term  ecological  risks  due  to  microplastics  do  exist  for  some  coastal  waters 
and sediments.  

4.1.2  Clean ports and airports 

386. Ports and airports play an essential role for our international connectivity, for the 
European economy, and for their regions. There are many best practices already in 
place by the most sustainable airports and ports265. Our  airports  and ports  can be 
made  clean  by  deploying  sustainable  alternative  fuels,  and  feeding  stationed 
vessels  and  aircraft  with  green  power  instead  of  fossil  energy;  incentivising  the 
development and use of new, cleaner and quieter aircraft and vessels; modulating 
airport charges; greening ground movements at airports as well as port services and 
operations;  and  through  a  wider  use  of  smart  traffic  management.  Public  and 
private investment in aviation and waterborne transport in research for cutting edge 
technologies, in fleet renewals, in local renewable energy production, and in more 
sustainable multimodal access increase.  

4.1.2.1  Ports 

387. The EU has more than 1,400 inland and seaports, including 329 sea ports and 103 
inland ports which are part of the trans-European transport network. Together, they 
accommodate  the  safe  passage  of  75%  of  the  EU’s  external  trade,  one-third  of 
intra-European  trade  and  400  million  passengers  annually.  Beyond  the  traffic 
generated in  terms of shipping (freight  and  cruise/passenger), ports are  economic 
and industrial hubs  of their own,  and therefore host  other major sources  of GHG 
emissions  and  pollution  (air,  noise  and  water):  energy  production  facilities  and 
refineries, landside operations in terminals, and hinterland connections (rail, road, 
inland waterways). European ports are therefore at the same time critical nodes of 
transport,  energy  and  industry  that  constitute  a  key  ecosystem  contributing  to 
building  European  strategic  value  chains.  In  this  respect  ports  also  have  an 
important role to play in the implementation of the Green Deal. 

388. As ports are often located close to  heavily populated urban areas, pollution bears 
direct impact on liveability and quality of life around those areas, be it for ports’ 
workers or citizens living nearby. Ongoing air quality infringements are a concern 
for a number of EU coastal cities. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, coastal cities 
were  also  particularly  affected  by  the  growing  popularity  of  the  cruise  industry, 
which relies heavily on highly fuel-intensive ‘mega-vessels’. 

389. Exhaust  gases  from  ships  are  a  significant  source  of  air  pollution,  in  particular 
through  sulphur  oxide  emissions  resulting  from  the  burning  of  fuel  oil.  Sulphur 
oxides are harmful to the human respiratory system and make breathing difficult. 
Ships traditionally used fuel oils for propulsion, which contained a sulphur content 
of up to 3.50 %, however, since 1 January 2020 a global sulphur cap with a limit of 
0.5%  applies.  For  comparison,  the  sulphur  content  of  fuels  used  in  lorries  or 
passenger cars must not exceed 0.001%.  

265 Such as the EcoPorts or Airport Carbon Accreditation initiatives, developed by the European Sea Ports Organisation (ESPO) and 
ACI  EUROPE,  respectively.  ACI  Sustainability  Strategy  for  the  Airport  Industry  https://www.aci-europe.org/press-
release/44-new-sustainability-strategy-guides-airports-towards-enhanced-societal-value.html 

95 

 
 
 
                                                      
Figure 23 Cruise ships docking in Barcelona emit 5 times more sulphur than the city’s 
560,000 cars every year266 

390. Since 2012, the EU has taken firm action to reduce the sulphur content of marine 
fuels  through  the  Sulphur  Directive.  In  some  very  fragile  ecosystems  such  as  the 
Baltic Sea, the North Sea and the English Channel – designated as ‘Sulphur Oxides 
Emissions Control Areas' (SECAs) – the maximum sulphur content was reduced to 
0.1%,  in  2015.  Also,  passenger  ships  spending  more  than  two  hours  at  berth  are 
already  subject  to  the  0.1%  sulphur  standard.  Such  stricter  sulphur  limits  have 
more  than  halved  sulphur  dioxide  concentrations  around  SECAs,  bringing  health 
benefits to people in coastal regions and ports, while the overall economic impacts 
on  the  sector  remained  minimal.  However,  the  stricter  limit  has  prompted  some 
ship owners to install exhaust gas cleaning systems whose operation, in particular 
in  open-loop  mode,  has  the  consequence  of  transferring  pollutants,  including 
polyaromatic  hydrocarbons  and  heavy  metals,  from  the  air  to  the  sea  water,  with 
potentially negative consequences, especially for port and coastal waters. 

391. The designation of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea as NOx Emission Control Area 
(NECA) starting from 1 January 2021 is expected to further accelerate the uptake 
of cleaner vessels  in  Europe.  In practice, all new vessels built  as of 2021 will  be 
required to reduce their NOx emissions by 80% compared to the present emission 
levels when sailing in these areas. This target can be achieved through the use of 
engine  technologies  and  after-treatment  with  catalysts  or  by  using  Liquefied 
Natural Gas (LNG) as fuel. 

392. In addition, on-shore power supply represents an attractive solution to reduce local 
pollution generated by vessels at berth in EU ports. This potential has already fully 
been  recognised  by  Article 4(5)  of  Directive (EU)  2014/94  on  Alternative  Fuels 
Infrastructure, according to which shore-side electricity supply shall be installed as 
a  priority  in  ports  of  the  Trans-European  Transport  Network  (TEN-T)  Core 
Network, and in other ports, by 31 December 2025, unless there is no demand and 
the costs are disproportionate to the benefits, including environmental benefits. The 
preparatory work for the evaluation of Directive 2014/94 was launched in 2019 and 
should identify, inter alia, how effective these provisions have been to deploy on-
shore power supply in European ports. 

266  EPSC  Strategic  Note  32  of  28  October  2019  ‘Clean  Transport  at  Sea’.  Based  on  analysis  done  by  Transport  &  Environment 
https://www.transportenvironment.org/news/cruise-ships-poisoning-city-air-sulphur-much-cars-%E2%80%93-new-data-reveals 

96 

 
 
 
 
                                                      
393. Ports have an important role to fulfil to enable the roll-out and uptake of alternative 
fuels  in  waterborne  transport,  including  for  alternative  fuels  corridors  for  inland 
waterways transport. Ports thus have a clear potential to become alternative energy 
hubs and to ensure the development of alternative fuels infrastructure through the 
cooperation  and  coordinated  action  of  all  the  relevant  ports  to  guarantee 
comprehensive and sufficient supply of alternative fuels. 

394. In  addition  to  the  regulatory  approach,  the  Commission  has  also  identified  the 
promotion  of  shore-side  electricity  as  a  priority  for  transport  investment.  It  is 
highlighted in the TEN-T Guidelines and through the Connecting Europe Facility 
that  the  Commission  has  been  supporting  several  projects  since  2014,  such  as 
ELEMED  and  TWIN  PORT  III,  for  the  deployment  of  onshore  power  supply  in 
EU ports. Moreover, alternative fuel infrastructure, such as onshore power supply, 
is eligible under the General Block Exemption Regulation and can thus be funded 
with public support. 

395. To  further  incentivise  the  deployment  and  use  of  shore-side  electricity,  Member 
States  can  also  ask  for  an  authorisation  to  apply  a  reduced  rate  of  taxation  on 
electricity  directly  provided  to  vessels  at  berth  in  a  port  in  accordance  with 
Article 19  of  the  Energy  Taxation  Directive.  Denmark,  Germany,  Spain  and 
Sweden,  have  applied  for  and  been  granted  such  authorisations.  France  and  Italy 
have recently been granted the derogation. 

396. Furthermore, the Communication on the European Green Deal announced action to 
oblige  docked  ships  to  use  shore-side  electricity,  which  could  provide  further 
impulse to the rollout. Alternative solutions, based on different technology, such as 
hybrid-ships with batteries charging while at sea, which can then be used when the 
ship is at berth should also be considered. The Commission is following up on the 
European  Green  Deal  announcement  in  the  context  of  the  “FuelEU  Maritime” 
initiative for a legislative proposal in 2021 

Electrification  of  port  infrastructure  and  ‘ground  handling’  equipment  to  reduce 
emissions 

397. In addition to the need for reductions of environmental impact of the sea side of the 
maritime transport chain, there is an important potential for such reductions in the 
ports  themselves,  e.g.  through  the  use  of  alternative  fuels  in  cargo  handling 
equipment  or  in  vessels  used  for  technical-nautical  services  (pilotage,  towage  or 
mooring), the monitoring of the environmental performance of port operations and 
the  replacement  of  diesel-powered  machinery  with  either  electric  or  gas-powered 
port  machinery  (e.g.  rubber  tyred  gantry  cranes,  mobile  harbour  cranes,  reach 
stackers, shunting locomotives). Train feeder lines to ports and their electrification 
support ease of access to sustainable distribution channels for maritime cargo. 

398. Digitalisation  of  port  processes  and  data  sharing  among  port  stakeholders  could 
bring  further  optimisations  in  logistics  operations  and  thus  reduce  unnecessary 
freight  movements.  Further  automation  of  container  management  and  port 
operations  as  well  as  the  adaptation  of  ports  and  port  infrastructure  to  automated 
transport modes could contribute to further enhancing the efficiency of operations. 
Such  measures  would  contribute  reducing  pollution  and  thus  to  improved  air 
quality  in  port  areas  and  cities,  as  well  as  mitigate  health  risks  for  port  workers 
exposed  to  the  combustion  exhaust  fumes  of  cargo  handling  equipment  used  in 
ports. 

97 

 
 
399. EcoPorts  under  the  European  Sea  Ports  Organisation  is  the  main  environmental 
initiative of the European port sector and aims to raise awareness on environmental 
protections  through  cooperation  and  sharing  of  knowledge  between  ports  and 
improve  their  environmental  management267.  It  has  developed  a  self-diagnosis 
method  (SDM)  to  assess  the  environmental  management  programme  of  ports  in 
relation  to  the  performance  of  the  sector  and  international  standards  as  well  as  a 
port  environmental  review  system  (PERS)  with  an  independently  reviewed 
certification valid for a period of 2 years. 

Promoting the use of environmentally differentiated port fees 

400. As  regards  environmental  charging,  the  2013  Ports  Policy  Communication, 
encouraged  a  more  consistent  application  of  environmentally  differentiated  port 
infrastructure  charges.  According  to  the  Port  Services  Regulation  2017/352,  port 
infrastructure  charges  may  vary,  in  accordance  with  the  port’s  own  commercial 
strategy and its spatial planning policy, in order to promote a more efficient use of 
the  port  infrastructure,  short  sea  shipping  or  a  high  environmental  performance, 
energy efficiency or carbon intensity of transport operations. It also called for the 
Commission,  together  with  Member  States,  to  elaborate  guidelines  on  common 
classification  criteria  for  vessels  for  the  purpose  of  voluntary  environmental 
charging.  Subsequently,  there  are  around  30  ports  in  Europe  that  apply 
differentiated  charges268  (in  the  form  of  rebates)  for  vessels  that  have  a  better 
environmental  performance  than  legally  required.  This  is  a  market  incentive  that 
can stimulate fleet greening. 

Optimisation of port calls to reduce emissions from maritime transport 

401. A port call is a particularly important event in the whole maritime transport chain 
and a potential bottleneck in the entire logistic chain. The benefits of just-in-time 
arrival  in  terms  of  emission  savings  would  potentially  be  significant  if  smart 
routing / steaming was implemented. 

402. An  international  task  force  on  port  call  optimisation269  is  working  to  establish 
standards for the exchange of information and data between all stakeholders, such 
as the ports and the vessels. The aim would be to have agreed standards recognised 
at  the  level  of  the  International  Maritime  Organisation  (IMO).  The  challenges 
related  to  port  call  optimisation  has  also  been  retained  as  one  of  the  discussion 
topics of the Sustainable Ports Subgroup under the European Ports Forum. 

Implementation of the new Directive on Port Reception Facilities (PRF) 

403. Although  most  marine  litter  originates  from  land,  a  significant  amount  –  an 
estimated 300,000 tonnes – of waste is discharged from ships into our seas, which 
poses an increasing threat to the marine environment. In this context the Directive 
(EU)  2019/883  on  port  reception  facilities  now  also  covers  all  plastic  household 
and operational  waste from  ships, as  well as fishing gear and other waste.  It  also 
applies to ‘passively fished waste’ – waste picked up by fishermen at sea. All ship 

267 http://www.ecoports.com/ 
268 COGEA for the European Commission: “Study on differentiated port infrastructure charges to promote environmentally friendly 
maritime transport activities and sustainable transportation”, June 2017: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/2017-06-
differentiated-port-infrastructure-charges-report.pdf. 
269 https://portcalloptimization.org/  

98 

 
 
 
 
                                                      
 
types  must  comply,  from  small  recreational  vessels  to  large  container  and 
passenger ships, as well as the whole range of ports visited by those ships. It has 
introduced  100%  indirect  fee  for  garbage  (MARPOL  Annex  V),  meaning  that 
fishing vessels can now dispose of passively fished waste and old/derelict fishing 
gear without paying extra charges. 

404. This new Directive on Port Reception Facilities entered into force in June 2019 and 
has a two-fold objective: (1) reduce discharges of waste from ships at sea, and (2) 
ensure the efficiency of maritime operations in port. Currently work is ongoing to 
ensure  implementation  of  the  Directive  (transposition  deadline  mid-2021).  Four 
Implementing Acts are foreseen:  

  On methods for calculation of sufficient waste storage capacity; 
  On  criteria  to  determine  that  ships  meet  the  requirements  in  relation  to  the 
ship’s  on-board  waste  management  (including  discharge  waters  and  sludge 
from  exhaust  gas cleaning systems), with  a view to  qualifying for a reduced 
delivery fee; 

  On monitoring data methodology and format for reporting of passively fished 

waste; and 

  On  a  risk-based  targeting  mechanism  to  provide  for  uniform  conditions  for 

selecting ships for inspection. 

405. A new Sub-Group on waste from ships under the European Sustainable Shipping 
Forum advises the European Commission on issues related to the implementation 
and operation of the Directive. 

Preventing ship-source oil pollution 

406. While the number of possible oil spills detected in European waters has dropped by 
half, from an average of 11 possible spills per 1000 km2 monitored in 2007 to five 
possible  spills  per  1000  km2  monitored  in  2017,  also  thanks  to  the  satellite 
monitoring  services  provided  by  the  European  Maritime  Safety  Agency,  other 
types of marine pollution are increasing. 

407. The new Directive on Port Reception Facilities (Directive (EU) 2019/883) calls on 
the Commission to assess the desirability of a review of Directive 2005/35/EC, in 
particular a possible extension of its scope, in order to align Directive 2005/35/EC 
to  the  relevant  MARPOL  Convention  provisions  prohibiting  the  discharges  of 
waste  from  ships  (recital  13).  Directive  2005/35/EC  regulates  enforcement  and 
sanctions  with  respect  to  illegal  discharges  of  substances  covered  by  MARPOL 
Annex I and II only (oily substances and noxious liquid substances).  

that 

they  are  properly  sanctioned.  To  strengthen 

408. However, Member States as contracting parties to the MARPOL Convention, also 
have  to  ensure  that  no  illegal  discharges  take  place  involving  packaged  harmful 
substances  (Annex  III),  sewage  (Annex  IV),  garbage  (Annex  V),  and  if  such 
discharges  occur, 
the 
implementation and enforcement of the MARPOL discharge prohibitions included 
in these Annexes, through EU law, the scope of Directive 2005/35/EC needs to be 
widened.  This  would  be  in  line  with  Member  State  obligations  as  MARPOL 
contracting parties, and also reflect existing regional cooperation in the framework 
of  the  regional  sea  conventions;  in  particular  HELCOM,  OSPAR  and  Barcelona 
Convention have established regional compliance networks to improve cooperation 
including  operational 
on 
detection/response actions, and the application of sanctions 

the  MARPOL  norms, 

the  enforcement  of 

99 

 
 
 
 
Issues related to enforcement of rules for ships calling at EU ports to ensure the same 
level of environmental performance 

409. Some  difficulties  in  enforcing  environmental  rules  for  ships  calling  at  EU  ports 
arise  from  the  international  nature  of  shipping.  Many  non-EU  flag  states  do  not 
actively  enforce  environmental  rules  and  thereby  obtain  a  cost  advantage  over 
compliant flags, while putting the environmental burden on those states and areas 
where their ships trade. 

410. Today,  the  Paris  Memorandum  of  Understanding  on  Port  State  Control  aims  at 
eliminating  the  operation  of  sub-standard  ships  through  a  harmonized  system  of 
Port  State  control.  Annually  more  than  18,000  inspections  take  place  on  board 
foreign ships in  the  Paris Memorandum  of Understanding  ports270, ensuring  inter 
alia that these ships meet the international environmental standards (MARPOL). In 
order to support the Port State Control inspections, the European Maritime Safety 
Agency (EMSA) has developed the THETIS database271.  

411. For  ships  visiting  EU  ports,  certain  additional  requirements  apply  due  to  specific 
EU  legislation  (e.g.  Sulphur  Directive,  Port  Reception  Facilities  Directive,  MRV 
Regulation,  Ship  Recycling).  In  order  to  enable  users  to  be  able  to  record  and 
exchange  data  on  inspections  and  verifications  foreseen  by  this  specific  EU 
legislation,  EMSA  has  developed  an  extension  to  THETIS,  THETIS-EU,  which 
facilitates targeting and alerts on the basis of predefined requirements. 

4.1.2.2  Airports 

412. Air  transport  provides  air  connectivity  which  is  a  key  enabler  for  the  free 
movement  of people,  goods and services underpinning the  EU internal  market  as 
well  as  EU  cohesion,  economic  integration  and  inclusive  growth.  By  connecting 
EU  to  the  rest  of  the  world  and  remote  areas,  such  as  the  outermost  regions, 
aviation  also  supports  tourism,  export-focused  industries  and  inward  investment, 
supporting jobs and economic growth. 

413. Airports are generally built in the vicinity of dense residential area or very close to 
major  cities.  While  air  connectivity  brings  significant  socio-economic  benefits,  it 
also  comes  with  climate,  environmental  and  health  challenges  related  to  aircraft 
greenhouse, pollutant and noise emissions. Airports are hence subject to a range of 
cross-cutting  environmental  rules  including  on  air  quality,  noise,  and  planning 
permissions  (e.g.  nature  protection  areas).  Some  airports  are  covered  under  ETS 
due  to  local  power  generation.  The  environmental  impact  of  each  airport  varies 
greatly  depending  on  the  size  of  the  airport,  its  activities  and  the  type  of  aircraft 
operating at it.  

414. Decarbonising  air  transport  sector,  next  to  addressing  the  challenges  related  to 
aircraft emissions reductions (including air and noise pollution) (see section 4.1.1, 
4.1.4  and  4.1.5),  would  also  require  investments  into  airport  infrastructure  and 
operations  to  optimise  air  traffic  management  and  strengthen  the  integration  of 

270 This mean ships carrying a different flag than the country in which the port is. 
271  THETIS  is  a  single  window  information  system  combining  port  call  information  (from  SafeSeaNet  system  also  hosted  by 
EMSA)  and  inspection  data.  The  system  guides  its  users  through  a  risk  based  targeting  mechanism  to  ships  which  should  be 
inspected and allows the results of inspections to be recorded. 

100 

 
 
 
 
                                                      
airports  into  a  genuinely  multimodal  network.  It  would  necessitate  improving 
airports'  energy  efficiency,  ensuring  the  supply  and  infrastructure  for  sustainable 
aviation fuels,  and hydrogen for hydrogen-powered airport operations and related 
services  as  well  as  renewable  energy  generation  on-site, 
together  with 
electrification and greening measures of airside activities such as groundhandling, 
ground traffic operations and aircraft on the ground, and other measures reducing 
environmental impacts. 

415. In June 2019, as part of the aviation industry ambition, vision and roadmap, ACI 
EUROPE and its members (203 airports) committed to net zero carbon emissions 
from  airport  operations  fully  within  their  own  control  by  2050  at  the  latest, 
reducing  absolute  emissions  to  the  furthest  extent  possible  and  addressing  any 
remaining  emissions  through  investment  in  carbon  removal  and  storage.  Three 
airports  have  already  reached  this  target,  while  several  others  have  announced  to 
reach it before 2030. 

416. So  far,  162  European  airports  (representing  67.2%  of  European  air  passenger 
traffic)  have  volunteered  to  join  the  Airport  Carbon  Accreditation  programme, 
which  provides  a  common  framework  for  carbon  management  with  the  primary 
objective to encourage and enable airports to implement best practices. 51 airports 
are  carbon  neutral  suggesting  good  progress  towards  the  ACI  EUROPE  target  of 
100 carbon neutral airports by 2030 and confirming the importance airports place 
on  carbon  neutrality.272  In  November  2020, the  programme  added  further 
obligations, namely alignment with the Paris Agreement, extended carbon footprint 
covering all significant operational emissions from third parties, including airlines, 
and enhanced stakeholder engagement.273   

Airport charges, slot allocation and groundhandling services  

417. The  existing  framework  on  airport  charges,  airport  slots  allocation  and 
groundhandling services can also play an important role in making the sector more 
sustainable.  

418. Airport  charges  are  paid  by  airlines  to  airports  for  the  use  of  facilities  and 
services, which are exclusively provided by the airport managing body and which 
are related to  landing, take-off, lighting  and parking of aircraft and processing of 
passengers and freight.  While the Directive  requires that airport charges  are non-
discriminatory, it permits modulations for environmental issues provided that they 
are  relevant,  objective  and  transparent.  The  2019  evaluation  of  the  Directive 
showed that only 61% of airports modulate charges on account of noise and only 
20% of airports do so on account of NOx emissions. The 2019 evaluation did not 
find any airports that would modulate airport charges on account of CO2 emissions. 
The  planned  revision  of  the  Airport  Charges  Directive  could  aim  to  ensure  the 
setting  of  airport  charges 
the  Green  Deal 
Communication and environmental ambitions of the EU. 

is  strategically  aligned  with 

419. Current rules concerning the allocation of slots do not contain measures that would 
align slot allocation with environmental objectives. However, the Slot Regulation 
states  that  slot-coordinators  shall  take  into  account  industry  rules,  such  as  the 
Worldwide  Slot  Guidelines  in  the  slot  allocation  process.  In  their  11th  version, 
published June 2020 the guidelines state that slot coordinators should try to ensure 
that  due  account  is  taken  of  environmental  factors  in  the  allocation  of  available 

272 Source: https://www.airportco2.org/ 
273 Source: https://www.airportcarbonaccreditation.org/aca-media/news.html 

101 

 
                                                      
slots. Environmental concerns could also be considered in local rules which apply 
to specific airports. However, their scope is quite limited with only a local impact. 

420. Groundhandling  is  an  essential  service  provided  for  airport  users  and  often 
represent  important  costs  for  them.  It  involves  ground  administration  and 
supervision,  handling  of  passengers,  baggage,  mail,  freight,  and  ramps,  aircraft 
services,  fuel  and  oil  handling,  aircraft  maintenance,  flight  operations  and  crew 
administration,  surface  transport  and  catering  services.  Groundhandling  services 
generate GHG and air pollutant emissions at airports. These are caused by usage of 
diesel fuel for airport vehicles and ground support equipment (GSE), fossil fuel for 
electricity and heating, jet fuel for auxiliary power units (APUs) that power aircraft 
at  airport  gates,  and  other  sources.  Airport  operators  can  implement  several 
measures  to  reduce  the  environmental  impact  of  groundhandling  services, 
including  provision  of  electric  buses  for  passenger  transport,  pre-conditioned  air 
fixed  power  units  to  avoid  GPU/APU  (which  run  on  diesel  or  kerosene), 
centralised  de-icing  pads  to  avoid  contamination  of  groundwater,  and  alternative 
fuels  for  ground  support  equipment.  Ground  support  equipment  could  also  be 
pooled for use by all groundhandling service providers. Under this approach, either 
by  agreement  or  as  mandated  by  the  airport,  groundhandling  equipment  at  the 
airport is owned centrally by the airport itself or by a leasing company on behalf of 
the airport. Such equipment can consist of for example electric lower deck loaders, 
electric conveyor belt loaders, electric passenger steps, main deck loaders, electric 
baggage tractors, power tractors and cool container dollies. The groundhandlers are 
then required to use the (modern and environmentally friendly) equipment to serve 
the aircraft, which they are contracted to handle. 

421. The  Groundhandling  Directive274  leaves  it  to  the  Member  States  to  ensure  the 
adequate  level  of  environmental  protection.  Member  States  may  make  the 
groundhandling  activity  conditional  upon  obtaining  the  approval  of  a  public 
authority  independent  of  the  managing  body  of  the  airport.  The  criteria  for  such 
approval can include environmental protection. The Directive allows the limitation 
of  the  number  of  groundhandling  service  providers  in  case  of  four  categories  of 
groundhandling services: baggage handling, ramp handling, fuel  and oil handling 
and  freight  and  mail  handling.  In  case  such  a  limitation  is  applied,  the  providers 
need  to  be  selected  in  a  public  tender  and  the  Member  States  may  establish 
standard  conditions  or  technical  specifications  covering  also  environmental 
aspects. 

422. The  Groundhandling  Directive  is  currently  being  evaluated.  This  evaluation  will 
closely  examine  issues  related  to  the  environmental  and  climate  impact  of 
groundhandling activities (particularly noise and emissions) and to climate change 
mitigation/adaptation policies employed by and/or incumbent (and enforced) upon 
groundhandling service providers and airports. 

Addressing “airside” ground vehicle movements 

423. Aircraft  ground  movements  at  airports  have  an  impact  on  the  local  air  quality  as 
well  as  on  the  local  noise  emissions.  Aircraft  ground  movements  include  taxiing 
from the aircraft stand to the start of the runway and vice-versa. Figure 24 shows 
the total aviation CO2 emissions per flight phases for flights in the ECAC region in 

274  Council  Directive  96/67/EC  of  15  October  1996  on  access  to  the  groundhandling  market  at  Community  airports,  OJ  L  272, 
25.10.1996, p. 36 

102 

 
 
                                                      
2019. It indicates that 4% of CO2 emissions, i.e. 8.6 million tonnes of CO2 came 
from aircraft ground movements, including the take-off run.  

Figure 24 CO2 emissions per flight phases 

424. Overall,  it  is  estimated  that  around  6%  of  CO2  emissions  in  aviation,  i.e.  11.6 
million  tonnes  of  CO2  are  generated  by  ATM  routing  inefficiencies275.  As 
illustrated  in  Figure  25,  of  these,  around  13%  are  estimated  to  be  due  to 
inefficiencies in aircraft ground movement, i.e. taxi-out for 9% and taxi-in for 4%. 
However,  these  estimated  ATM  inefficiencies  are  not  based  on  actual  fuel  burn, 
and  it  is  the  view  of  some  experts  -  including  Eurocontrol  -  that  actual 
inefficiencies could be higher and up to 10%. This can be explained by the fact that 
there  are  likely  further  inefficiencies,  which  until  now  are  unaccounted  for,  for 
instance, related to the flight level and aircraft speed. 

275  Modulated  air  navigation  charges  can  encourage  eliminating  such  inefficiencies,  especially  if  rolled  out  in a  harmonised  and 
effective scheme across the EU. 

103 

 
 
 
 
                                                      
Figure 25 ATM inefficiencies 

425. Solutions provided through the SESAR project are available for airports, airspace 
users and air navigation service providers to optimise usage of the airspace and the 
sequencing  of  ground  traffic  operations  of  aircraft  before  take-off  and  after 
landing.  Large  deployment  of  such  solutions  would  allow  engine  running  time 
reductions  thus  less  emission  for  local  residents.  Examples  of  SESAR  solutions 
include taxi route displays for pilots, pre-departure sequencing supported by route 
planning,  wake  turbulence  separation  optimisation,  traffic  optimisation  on  single 
and multiple runway airports, enhanced guidance assistance to aircraft and vehicles 
on the airport surface combined with routing, time-based separation, and others. 
426. The  Directive  on  the  deployment  of  alternative  fuels  infrastructure276  does 
currently  not  contain  any  specific  obligations  for  Member  States  to  decarbonise 
ground  movements.  However,  it  stipulates  that  the  national  policy  framework,  to 
be adopted by Member States, must consider the need to install electricity supply at 
airports for stationary aircraft. Moreover, hydrogen-powered airport operations and 
related services will also require adequate refuelling infrastructure at airports.   

Impact of noise on local residents 

427. Long-term  exposure  to  aircraft  noise  is  linked  with  a  variety  of  health  impacts, 
including  ischaemic  heart  disease,  sleep  disturbance,  annoyance  and  cognitive 
impairment. The legislative instruments in place, notably the “Balanced Approach” 
Regulation277,  shall  be  applied  by  Member  States  in  order  to  meet  specific  noise 
abatement  objectives  at  the  level  of  individual  airports,  where  clear  objectives  of 
reduction in population exposure to noise should be set through the Environmental 

276 Directive 2014/94/EU 
277 Regulation (EU) No 598/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on the establishment of rules and 
procedures with regard to the introduction of noise-related operating restrictions at Union airports within a Balanced Approach and 
repealing Directive 2002/30/EC, OJ L 173, 12.6.2014, p. 65. 

104 

 
 
 
 
                                                      
Noise  Directive278.  The  Regulation  compels  Member  States  to  ensure  that  the 
Balanced  Approach  is  adopted  in  respect  of  aircraft  noise  management  at  those 
airports  where  a  noise  problem  has  been  identified.  The  “Balanced  Approach” 
refers  to  the  process  developed  by  the  International  Civil  Aviation  Organization 
under which the range of available measures, namely the reduction of aircraft noise 
at  source,  land-use  planning  and  management,  noise  abatement  operational 
procedures and operating restrictions, is considered in a consistent way with a view 
to  addressing  the  noise  problem  in  the  most  cost-effective  way  on  an  airport-by-
airport basis. 

Greener access to the airport 

428. Today,  an  important  share  of  passengers  still  use  their  car  to  access  European 
airports.  Although  greener  alternatives  exist  (rail,  bus  shuttles),  these  may  not 
always be deemed the most practical or economical by passengers and not always 
seamlessly  integrated  into  urban  transport.  In  addition,  car  parks  are  still  a 
significant source of revenue for airports. On average, 36% of passengers travelled 
to airports by public transport in 2018, compared to 43% in 2016279.  

429. The  Connecting  Europe  Facility  (CEF)  is  financing  multimodal  connections  to 
airports,  such  as  the  “Genoa  Erzelli”  in  Italy  or  the  connection  of  the  Budapest-
Arad  railway  line  to  the  multimodal  hub  at  Budapest  Airport.  The  TEN-T 
Regulation requires that for airports on the network, both core and comprehensive, 
the  improvement  of  multimodal  interconnections  with  other  transport  modes  is 
given  priority280.  In  practice,  this  is  very  much  focused  on  rail  and  light  rail  i.e. 
sustainable passenger connections. 

430. Generally  speaking,  airports  and  the  companies  operating  at  airports  are  self-
financing from user charges and commercial revenues, and the possibility to grant 
compatible State aid is limited under the current State aid rules, including under the 
2014  EU  Guidelines  on  State  aid  to  airports  and  airlines.  The  Commission  is 
conducting a Fitness check of State aid rules, including those for airports. Should 
this process conclude on the need to revise the rules for airports, current limitation 
could  be  revisited  in  respect  of  green  investment.  This  would  be  particularly 
welcomed  by  smaller  regional  airports,  many  of  which  are  essential  to  regional 
connectivity  but  are  loss-making  (71%  of  “small  airports”  are  reportedly  loss-
making). 

4.1.3  Sustainable urban mobility  

431. The  EU  cannot  rely  only  on  technological  solutions  delivering  in  the  future: 
immediate  action  to  adapt  our  mobility  and  transport  system  is  needed  today  to 
tackle  climate  change  and  reduce  pollution,  and  a  number  of  solutions  already 
exist.  In  addition  to  making  each  and  every  transport  mode  more  sustainable, 
sustainable alternatives need to be made widely available. 

432. Urbanisation  has  been  increasing  in  the  past  decades  and  this  trend  is  likely  to 
continue.  So  our  mobility  is  an  equally  increasingly  urban  question,  and  poses 

278 Directive 2002/49/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 25 June 2002 relating to the assessment and management 
of environmental noise - Declaration by the Commission in the Conciliation Committee on the Directive relating to the assessment 
and management of environmental noise, OJ L 189, 18.7.2002, p. 12. 
279  2016  and  2018  data  was  based  on  airport  reports  representing  56%  and  64%  of  European  traffic  respectively. 
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/2019-aviation-environmental-report.pdf 
280 Articles 26 and 39 of Regulation (EU) N° 1315/2013 

105 

 
 
                                                      
challenges both for those who live in cities and those who travel into them, often 
every day. Urban congestion costs, for example, are estimated to account for EUR 
180 billion per year in terms of delay costs and about EUR 32 billion per year in 
terms  of deadweight  loss at  EU-27 level.281  In addition,  model estimates indicate 
that  urban  transport  is  responsible  for  about  22%  of  EU's  CO2  emissions  from 
transport.282 

433. The ability of a city to host infrastructure for public transport, cycling, walking and 
other  mobility  systems,  depends  primarily  on  its  spatial  setup  and  economic 
standing.  In  cities  of  high  urban  density,  more  people  can  be  served  by  shorter 
networks  (pedestrian  pavements,  cycling  lanes,  bus  routes  etc.).  On  the  contrary, 
cities with urban sprawl need to construct and maintain much more infrastructure 
per  inhabitant.  The  way  various  activities  (work,  residence,  leisure,  culture, 
commerce, etc.) are located within a city also plays an important role on proximity 
and  transport  needs.283  Cities  and  towns  can  facilitate  safe  active  mobility  and 
creation  of  recreational  spaces  allowing  physical  activity,  parks  and  green  zones 
through inclusive urban planning and design. 

434. The  Urban  Mobility  Package  of  2013284,  the  main  EU  policy  basis,  aimed  to 
support  cities  to  improve  their  urban  mobility,  with  the  concept  of  sustainable 
urban  mobility  plans  (SUMPs)  in  the  centre  of  the  approach.  Related  EU 
guidelines  were  published  to  support  local  authorities  in  the  process.  The  EU 
approach  to  urban  mobility  has  inspired  many  cities  within  and  beyond  Europe, 
with over 1,000 SUMPs in place now285. Whilst the guidelines continue to be used 
extensively, major new trends in many areas of urban mobility have emerged and a 
wealth  of  practical  SUMP  experience  has  been  acquired  over  the  last  few  years. 
Therefore  a  major  overhaul  took  place  in  October  2019:  a  revision  of  the 
Guidelines itself, as well as the development of a range of complementary guides 
on specific aspects of SUMP286. 

435. The  preliminary  evaluation  results  of  the  2013  Urban  Mobility  Package  indicate 
that the package was a relevant step towards sustainable mobility, but the problems 
identified  in  2013  still  exist,  with  some  –  such  as  congestion  or  deteriorating 
climate  and  local  environment  –  getting  worse.  In  addition,  as  indicated  by  the 
Court of Auditors in their performance audit of the EU urban mobility policy and 
funding, no real progress at local level is possible without stronger involvement of 
Member States. 

436. Clearer  guidance  is  needed  on  mobility  management  at  local  and  regional  level, 
and  on  connectivity  with  rural  and  suburban  areas  so  that  commuters  are  given 
sustainable  mobility  options.  European  policies  and  financial  support  should  also 
reflect the importance of urban mobility for the overall functioning of the TEN-T, 
with provisions for first/last mile solutions that include multimodal mobility hubs, 
park-and-ride facilities, and safe, active mobility infrastructure.  

281    The delay cost gives a value of the travel time lost relative to a free-flow situation. The deadweight loss costs is the part of the 
delay costs which is regarded as a proper basis for transport pricing. CE Delft (2019) ‘Handbook on the External Costs of Transport. 
Version 2019’.  
https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9781f65f-8448-11ea-bf12-01aa75ed71a1.  
282 Estimates based on the PRIMES-TREMOVE model developed by E3Modelling. 
283 Paris, for example, through the ‘15 minute city’ project is aiming in such urban organization, where all everyday needs can be 
covered by a walk or cycling ride of maximum 15 minutes.    
284 COM(2013) 913 final It should be noted that an evaluation of the UMP, where UVARs are also considered, will be accomplished 
by the end of 2020. 
285 https://www.eltis.org/mobility-plans/city-database  
286 https://www.eltis.org/mobility-plans/guidelines-developing-and-implementing-sustainable-urban-mobility-plan-2nd-edition  

106 

 
                                                      
to 

from 

reduce  noise 

437. Under  the  Environmental  Noise  Directive,  Member  States  have  to  prepare  action 
in  approximately  500  European 
transport 
plans 
agglomerations.  Nevertheless,  reduction  of  noise  in  urban  areas  require  a  mix  of 
global and local actions that result in noise reduction for instance the improvement 
of the vehicle fleet needs to be accompanied by the deployment of better tyres and 
better roads. In that sense, the Environmental Noise Directive could be enhanced to 
coordinate the efforts needed for this co-benefit.  

438. Under the Ambient Air Quality Directives287, Member States have to comply with 
air  quality  standards  for  a  number  of  pollutants  harmful  for  human  health, 
including  limit  values  for  nitrogen  dioxide  and  particulate  matter  (PM10  and 
PM2.5). In over 130 cities located in a majority of Member States, limit values for 
one  or  more  of  these  pollutants  have  been  exceeded  for  many  years,  with 
significant consequences for public health and the economy. Specific measures are 
not  prescribed,  although  an  increasing  number  of  cities  have  turned  to  SUMPs 
which  can  contain  different  measures  focusing  on  various  aspects  of  urban 
mobility, with urban vehicles access regulations (UVARs) being one of them.  

Figure 26: Annual mean NO2 concentrations observed at traffic stations, 2017288 

Source: European Environment Agency. 

287 Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008 on ambient air quality and cleaner air for 
Europe, OJ L 152, 11.6.2008, p. 1; and Directive 2004/107/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 December 2004 
relating to arsenic, cadmium, mercury, nickel and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in ambient air, OJ L 23, 26.1.2005, p. 3. 
288  The  figure  shows  the  annual  mean  concentrations  of  nitrogen  dioxide  (NO2)  observed  at  traffic  stations  in  2017.  Source: 
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/exceedances-of-air-quality-objectives-7/assessment-2  

107 

 
 
 
                                                      
Figure 27: Percentile 90.4 of daily mean PM10 concentrations observed at traffic stations, 
2017289 

Source: European Environment Agency. 

Figure 28: Annual mean PM2.5 concentrations observed at traffic stations, 2017290 

Source: European Environment Agency. 

289 The map shows the Percentile 90.4 of daily mean PM10 concentrations at traffic stations. This represents the 36th highest value 
in a complete series. It is related to the PM10 daily limit value, which allows 35 exceedances of the 50 µg/m3 threshold over a 1-
year period. Dots in the last two colour categories indicate stations with concentrations above this daily limit value. Only stations for 
which  more  than  75  %  of  data  are  valid  have  been  included  in  the  map.  Source:  https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-
maps/indicators/exceedances-of-air-quality-objectives-7/assessment-2  
290  The  figure  shows  the  annual  mean  concentrations  of  particulate  matter  (PM2.5)  observed  at  traffic  stations  in  2017.  Source: 
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/exceedances-of-air-quality-objectives-7/assessment-2 

108 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                      
4.1.3.1  Urban vehicle access regulations 

439. In recent years, more and more European cities have started to introduce different 
kinds of Urban Vehicle Access Regulations (UVARs) to pursue a variety of policy 
objectives ranging from air quality to liveability and infrastructure optimisation.  

440. Regulating  vehicle  access  to  cities  should  be  part  of  integrated  mobility  policies: 
Sustainable  Urban  Mobility  Plans  (SUMPs)  should,  whenever  applicable,  cover 
also the question of UVAR. In order to support cities in better grasping this aspect, 
a  dedicated  guide  on  UVARs  was  published  in  October  2019  within  the  revised 
guidelines on SUMPs.291 

441. While  urban  mobility  is  largely  a  matter  of  national  and  local  competence,  the 
diversity  of  UVARs,  in  particular  low-emission  zones  (LEZs),  has  posed  new 
challenges for passenger and freight transport by creating obstacles to the seamless 
mobility  of  vehicles  across  the  EU.  If  access  of  private  cars  to  cities  is  to  be 
restricted,  doing  it  on  a  more  harmonised  or  coordinated  basis  seems  to  be 
necessary, given that at present more than one quarter of the overnight trips carried 
out  by  EU  residents  in  2017  were  abroad  (the  vast  majority  of  which  were  in 
another  EU  Member  State),  and  in  two-thirds  of  the  cases  by  car.  It  is  clear  that 
there is  a need  for better coordination across Member States despite the different 
EU policy initiatives and as shown by studies292 that have addressed UVARs at EU 
level over the past years.  

442. The  lack  of  harmonisation  or  transparency  has  been  the  basis  of  concerns 
expressed  by  some  stakeholders  for  example  in  relation  to  the  availability  of 
information online and in foreign languages, the difficulties for foreign drivers in 
particular to comply with the rules and issues related to enforcement, the level of 
fines, or the lack of provision of sustainable alternatives such as public transport. 
There  are  also  concerns  relating  to  different  rules  for  access  of  domestic  and 
foreign vehicles. On the other side of the argument, some cities report that existing 
UVARs are often not fully respected, sometimes also noting problems in enforcing 
fines. At the same time, it should be possible to use a comparable methodology for 
vehicles  from  all  EU  countries,  which  could  remove  the  need  for  registration  of 
vehicles  that  comply  with  the  LEZ-criteria,  and  thus  reduce  the  administrative 
burden for foreign vehicle owners and city administrations.  

443. There  are  different  types  of  UVAR.  Low  Emission  Zones  restrict  access  by  the 
most  polluting  vehicles  to  a  specific  area  within  a  city.  The  Commission  is 
currently aware of over 300 low-emission areas.293 Designating a certain area as a 
LEZ or environmental zone can result in a substantial decrease of emissions within 
the LEZ and therefore are a tool to reduce air pollution in cities. Often LEZs are 
implemented where and when EU air quality standards are breached294. 

444. There are also congestion charging schemes, different types of parking regulations, 
and a growing trend towards other traffic restriction schemes, such as Low Traffic 
Neighbourhoods, roads which offer priority to cyclists or pedestrians, or pedestrian 
only zones. The Commission has received fewer concerns about such schemes.     

291 https://www.eltis.org/sites/default/files/uvar_brochure_2019-09-26_digital_version_v2.pdf 
292 Including the UVAR study from 2017, the 2009 Action plan on urban mobility and the 2009 ARS study 
293 A map of the existing low-emission zones is available here. 
294 As defined in the Ambient Air Quality Directive 2008/50/EC 

109 

 
                                                      
4.1.3.2  Walking, cycling and micromobility 

445. Active mobility modes such as walking and cycling are low-cost and emission-free 
forms  of  mobility,  and  thus  the  most  sustainable  ones.  Together  with  public 
transport,  new  shared  mobility  and  micromobility  solutions  they  have  a  great 
potential to  reduce local CO2, air and noise emissions, improve human health, as 
well  as  congestion  and  pressure  on  valuable  urban  space  and  infrastructure295. 
However,  as  with  other  forms  of  mobility,  attention  always  needs  to  be  paid  to 
those  persons  with  disabilities  or  reduced  mobility  that  cannot  always  participate 
on those active mobility modes on an equal basis with others. 

as 

(such 

diseases 

diseases, 

cardiovascular 

446. Ensuring that walking and cycling are safe, accessible and attractive encourages a 
reduction  in  the  number  of  unnecessary  car  trips,  especially  in  cities.    Regular 
walking  and  cycling  can  also  help  to  reduce  the  incidence  of  major  non-
communicable 
diabetes, 
overweight/obesity,  cancer296)  due  to  more  physical  activity.  Physical  inactivity 
and  sedentary  lifestyles  are  one  of  the  main  driving  causes  of  the  rise  in  these 
diseases.  Walking  and  cycling  therefore  contribute  to  reducing  the  significant 
pressure  on  health  care  and  social  protection  systems  and  have  also  direct 
economic  gains  with  effects  on  commercial  activity  and  shifts  local  expenditure 
towards more local business297. Nevertheless active mobility also needs to be made 
safe  –  70%  of  road  fatalities  in  urban  areas  are  to  walkers,  cyclists  (as  well  as 
motorcyclists  and  other  vulnerable  road  users)  and  many  more  are  seriously 
injured.    So  the  allocation  of  the  public  space  for  mobility  in  cities  needs  to  be 
in 
addressed.  Segregated  walking  and  cycling 
encouraging  active  mobility  and  ensuring  its  safety,  and  where  active  mobility 
mixes  with  motorised  traffic  in  cities,  reducing  speeds  e.g.  to  30  km/h,  has  been 
recommended  in  the  Stockholm  Declaration  of  the  Third  Global  Ministerial 
Conference  on  Road  Safety  in  February  2020298.    Returns  to  investment  from 
building safe footpaths and road crossings, bike lanes and bike parking are in any 
case substantial.   

infrastructure 

is  effective 

447. Congestion in urban areas is one of the biggest issues, with huge negative social, 
environmental  and  economic  impacts.  Measures  improving  walking  and  cycling 
conditions  can  reduce  congestion  in  cities.  For  example,  pedestrianisation 
improves  mobility  and  accommodates  more  people  during  rush  hours  (Dublin), 
cycling  improvements  lead  to  45%  less  car  traffic  and  faster  public  transport 
(Copenhagen) or cycle highway network reduces the need for 50 000 car trips daily 
(Ruhr area)299. The EU-funded CIVITAS FLOW300 project identified a broad set of 
benefits from more walking and cycling.  

448. So  due  to  the  range  of  co-benefits  that  can  be  generated,  cycling  and  walking 
therefore  contribute  to  fulfilling  objectives  in  a  number  of  EU  policy  areas,  in 
particular: reducing congestion in transport and mobility; low carbon development; 
innovation and technology; air pollution; industrial competitiveness and economic 
growth;  environment  and  climate  change;  human  health;  local  development  and 
cohesion; equity and accessibility; and sustainable tourism.   

295 International Transport Forum, 2020, Good to Go? Assessing the Environmental Performance of New Mobility https://www.itf-
oecd.org/good-to-go-environmental-performance-new-mobility 
296 The Commission is currently working on the Europe’s Beating Cancer Plan. 
297 Research has shown that improving conditions for active mobility can increase retail sales by 30%. Moreover, people who walk 
to shopping areas can spend up to 40% more and retail vacancies can be up to 17% lower after improvements to make these areas 
more walkable. Transport for London, 2019, http://content.tfl.gov.uk/walking-cycling-economic-benefits-summary-pack.pdf  
298 https://www.roadsafetysweden.com/contentassets/b37f0951c837443eb9661668d5be439e/stockholm-declaration-english.pdf 
299 FLOW, 15 Quick Facts for Cities, http://h2020-flow.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/Deliverables/15_quick_facts_eng_FINAL.pdf  
300 http://h2020-flow.eu/  

110 

 
                                                      
449. Walking  is  the  most  inexpensive  mode  of  transport.  Consequently,  ensuring  that 
there are safe accessible and attractive conditions for walking is key. Almost every 
public transport trip starts or ends with at least a short walk. Research indicates that 
the  reach  of  the  existing  public  transport  system  can  be  extended  significantly 
simply by making walking to and from hubs and stops easier, less prone to barriers 
and  more  pleasant  by  creating  attractive  urban  spaces  that  are  well  connected  to 
public transport infrastructure301. According to a recent Eurobarometer survey, just 
over  four  in  ten  (42%)  use  walking  as  their  mode  of  transport  or  in  combination 
with  the  main  mode.302    According  to  the  estimates  of  Walk21  Foundation,  the 
economic benefits  of walking amount to more than EUR 250 billion  – 40% of it 
due  to  improved  mental  and  physical  health.  Research  at  a  city  level  points  to 
regular  walking  leading  to  a  14%  reduction  in  the  risk  of  mortality  compared  to 
those who do not regularly walk, with substantial economic benefits as well303.  

450. According  to  the  estimates  of  the  European  Cyclists’  Federation,  the  economic 
benefits  of  cycling  in  the EU are very substantial  and amount to more than EUR 
150  billion  per  year304,  including  EUR  6.5  billion  environmental  benefits,  with 
health benefits providing the lion’s share of the rest.  

451. When  it  comes  to  EU  policy,  the  2011  Transport  White  Paper  acknowledged  the 
importance of promoting cycling as an alternative to car use. The White Paper also 
acknowledged the importance of cycling in delivering clean and sustainable urban 
mobility  and  of  cycling  as  an  integral  part  of  the  urban  transport  system.  In  the 
Commission’s  2016  Strategy  for  Low  Emission  Mobility,  active  travel,  i.e., 
walking  and  cycling  was  promoted  as  a  local  action  by  cities  to  be  encouraged, 
enabled and embedded into Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMP) in enabling 
and encouraging cycling. Support  for the development of SUMPs was one of the 
main  elements  of  the  Commission’s  2013  Urban  Mobility  package,  with  urban 
logistics,  access  restrictions,  urban  road  user  charging  and  the  deployment  of 
Intelligent  Transport  Systems  (ITS)  also  interacting  with  cycling.  Beyond  urban 
areas,  EuroVelo305,  the  network  of  17  long-distance  cycle  routes  is  an  important 
contributor to the cycle tourism industry in  Europe306, and in parallel, EPaths has 
the  potential  to  make  a  similar  contribution  to  the  walking  tourism  industry.  The 
overall contribution of cycling and walking to tourism revenues is valued at more 
than EUR 176 billion. 

452. The  importance  of  cycling  has  been  recognised  by  Member  States307  as  well:  in 
2018,  the  EU’s  Transport  and  Environment  Ministers  met  in  Graz,  Austria,  to 

 Research has shown that improving conditions for active mobility can increase retail sales by 30%. Moreover, people who walk to 
shopping areas can spend up to 40% more and retail vacancies can be up to 17% lower after improvements to make these areas more 
walkable. Transport for London, 2019, http://content.tfl.gov.uk/walking-cycling-economic-benefits-summary-pack.pdf  
302 https://www.roadsafetysweden.com/contentassets/b37f0951c837443eb9661668d5be439e/stockholm-declaration-english.pdf 
302 FLOW, 15 Quick Facts for Cities, http://h2020-flow.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/Deliverables/15_quick_facts_eng_FINAL.pdf  
302 http://h2020-flow.eu/  
302 While some effects can be relatively easily quantified and assessed within a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) framework, others are 
much  more  difficult,  such  as  better  quality  of  life.  These  benefits  also  vary  based  on  the  local  conditions.  The  FLOW  project 
captured  the  various  benefits  into  a  dedicated  FLOW  Impact  Assessment  Tool.        https://civitas.eu/tool-inventory/flow-impact-
assessment-tool 
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332710219_Evaluation_of_walking_level_health_and_economic_benefits_by_europe_hea
lth_economic_assessment_tool_for_walking_heat_-_for_walking  
304 ECF, The benefits of cycling. https://ecf.com/what-we-do/cycling-economy/economic-benefits 
305 www.eurovelo.com 
306 Source: ECF 
307 An informal Transport Council held under the Luxembourg Presidency in 2015 recognised cycling as being a climate-friendly 
mode  of  transport.  The  Luxembourg  declaration  called  for  the  Commission  to  take  action  to  integrate  cycling  into  multimodal 
transport policy, including smart mobility; develop an EU level strategic document on cycling; and set up a European focal point for 
exchange  of  best  practices. 
relevant  questions 
cycling 

a  one-stop-shop 

facilitate 

serve 

and 

for 

as 

to 

111 

 
                                                      
 
 
 
leading 

to  clean  mobility.  They  adopted 

discuss  pathways 
the  “Graz 
declaration”308,  which  includes  acknowledging  cycling  as  an  equal  mode  of 
transport,  developing  a  European  strategic  and  supportive  framework  to  promote 
active mobility, and integrating active mobility in the current and future European 
funding and financing schemes. A recent joint statement by the Benelux countries 
stressed the importance of cycling and the urgent need for stimulating bicycle use 
as a necessary, safe and healthy alternative in (urban) mobility. Many stakeholders 
see  a  need  for  a  more  strategic,  EU-level  approach  to  be  taken  to  enable  and 
promote cycling in the EU309.  

453. In order to develop the full potential of the active modes of transport, cycling and 
walking  have  to  be  taken  seriously  in  urban  mobility  policies,  including  in 
transport  planning,  allocation  of  space  and  budgets.  According  to  a  2020 
Commission working paper, walking and cycling perform well in cities with dense 
road networks, higher densities and fewer steep slopes310. While many cities have 
been rediscovering them as the ideal urban mode of transportation and have gone a 
long way in promoting their use in recent years and months, their full potential is 
still untapped in many places. While about 17    %    of    the    EU    population    
stated    in    a    2019    Eurobarometer survey311 that they use bicycle or scooter    
as  their  primary  mode  of  transportation,  there  are  huge  differences  in  cycle  use 
across the continent.  

454. The  full  potential  of  cycling  and  walking  in  delivering  a  more  sustainable  and 
resilient  urban  mobility  needs  to  be  recognised  and  supported  by  key  trip 
destinations including public transport operators, schools and universities, retailers, 
hospitals, and leisure centres. Employers in general can encourage better employee 
health  through  active  mobility.  Promotion  campaigns  and  workplace  schemes, 
supported by the necessary infrastructure investment, to make walking and cycling 
easier  and  more  attractive  have  been  shown  to  enable  healthier  communities, 
reduce  absenteeism  and  improve  overall  employee  wellbeing  and  increased 
productivity. 

to 

http://www.eu2015lu.eu/en/actualites/communiques/2015/10/07-info-transports-declaration-velo/07-Info-Transport-Declaration-of-
Luxembourg-on-Cycling-as-a-climate-friendly-Transport-Mode---2015-10-06.pdf  At  the  2016  Informal  Meeting  of  EU  Ministers 
responsible  for  Urban  Matters  Within  the  EU,  the  ‘Pact  of  Amsterdam’  was  established  and  noted  that  cycling  was  one  of  the 
elements 
mobility. 
https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/policy/themes/urban-development/agenda/pact-of-amsterdam.pdf 
308 https://www.eu2018.at/latest-news/news/10-30-Graz-Declaration.html  
309 The European Cyclists’ Federation (ECF), supported by a number of other organisations, developed its own strategy and set of 
recommendations in 2017 
310 Poelman, H. Dijkstra, L. and Ackermans, L. (2020): How many people can you reach by public transport, bicycle or on foot in 

sustainable 

delivering 

efficient 

focused 

urban 

and 

on 

be 

in 

European Cities? Measuring urban accessibility for low-carbon modes. Regio Working Papers 01/2020. 

311 Special Eurobarometer 495  
https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/survey/getsurveydetail/instruments/special/surveyky/2226 

112 

 
 
                                                                                                                                                            
Figure 29: Main mode of transport on a typical day 

Source: Special Eurobarometer 495312 

455. Many observers are calling for cycling and walking policies to be embedded within 
a  wider  SUMP  framework  that  aims  at  the  overall  improvement  of  the  mobility 

312 https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/survey/getsurveydetail/instruments/special/surveyky/2226. 

113 

 
 
                                                      
system  of  a  town  or  city.  In  order  to  support  towns  and  cities  in  this  task,  the 
Commission issued in 2019 Guidance on cycling projects in the EU313, a resource 
that  enables  users  to  identify  the  most  relevant  information  for  their  situation.  In 
addition, the SUMP guidelines revised in 2019 include, for the first time, dedicated 
annexes  on  supporting  and  encouraging  walking314  and  cycling315  in  sustainable 
urban mobility planning.     

456. The  sharing  of  limited  space  for  mobility  in  cities  can  lead  to  conflicts  between 
transport users,  in  particular where the use of sustainable modes of transport like 
cycling  and  walking  and  new  forms  of  micromobility  are  being  promoted. 
Currently, 38% of road fatalities in the EU occur in urban areas, 70% of which are 
vulnerable  road  users  (pedestrians,  cyclists  and  motorcyclists).  To  avoid  such 
tensions,  the  objectives  of  sustainability  and  safety  need  to  be  brought  together 
from the outset. It is important that urban mobility planning in cities that aims to 
make  transport  cleaner  and  more  sustainable  seeks  at  the  same  time  to  make  it 
safer.  Among  the  key  measures  to  address  this  concern  is  investment  in  safe 
cycling  and  walking  infrastructure  in  cities  while  at  the  same  time  managing  car 
use and introducing lower default speed limits.  

457.  It  is  only  if  actual  and  perceived  safety  is  high  that  more  people  will  choose  to 
walk and cycle. Fear of sharing the road with dense motorised traffic is a primary 
reason that puts people off from cycling (and to lesser extent walking). To support 
local  authorities  and  stakeholders  in  that  regard,  the  revised  SUMP  guidelines 
include also a dedicated guide on urban road safety and active travel in sustainable 
urban mobility planning316. 

313 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/urban/cycling/guidance-cycling-projects-eu_en  
314 https://www.eltis.org/sites/default/files/supporting_and_encouraging_walking_in_sumps.pdf  
315 https://www.eltis.org/sites/default/files/supporting_and_encouraging_cycling_in_sumps.pdf  
316 https://www.eltis.org/sites/default/files/urban_road_safety_and_active_travel_in_sumps.pd_.pdf  
According to experts, efforts to improve facilities for cyclists in Paris are showing impressive results. The mayor’s office published 
statistics  early  2020  showing  that  bicycle  use  in  both  the  centre  of  Paris  and  the  suburbs  rose  by  54%  in  one  year  following  a 
considerable increase in cycle lanes, many of them separated from motorised traffic. That is still well below the total for car trips of 
14.8 million, but car trips are down 5% since 2010. Research shows the most common reason for cycling is commuting by bike. 
That also explains why money has been invested in the so-called RER-V cycle network, which aims to expand cycle paths outside 
the ‘Péripherique’ Paris ring road so cycling to work is a viable option for people in the suburbs.  

114 

 
 
                                                      
 
Figure 30: Percentage of road fatalities on urban roads in the EU by transport mode, 2018 

Source: CARE database317 

458. Micromobility  represents  a  potentially  huge  global  market  and  key  players 
(regulators,  industry,  consumers)  need  to  work  closely  together  to  make  it  a 
success. Micromobility is also widely praised for its potential to reduce congestion, 
yet the jury is out whether it replaces or complements public transport by covering 
primarily  first/last  mile  trips.  Cities  –  and  other  regulators  –  play  a  key  role  in 
authorising  or  banning  operators  and  in  defining  conditions  under  which  the 
service  can  be  provided.  They  also  play  a  role,  together  with  public  transport 
companies, to enable synergies with shared micro-mobility options. 

459. These new personal  mobility devices, in  particular shared e-scooters, which were 
deployed in large numbers in cities all over Europe, also raise a number of safety 
concerns – some related to the safety of the devices themselves (e.g. their centre of 
gravity,  brakes,  lights),  some  to  their  safe  use  (e.g.  use  on  pavements  and  cycle 
paths, helmets).  

460. Differences between the rules that apply, often even within a Member State, make 
it difficult  for visitors to follow local rules  correctly,  and hamper the business of 
sharing scheme operators that wish to operate in more than one country. Shared or 
not, micro-mobility vehicles need to operate in a regulatory framework that defines 
where they can be used (e.g. roads, bike lanes, pavements, pedestrian areas, 30 kph 
areas), at what speed, after which training, as of what age and in compliance with 
which safety rules (e.g. protective equipment, lights, turn signals, etc.). 

4.1.3.3  Public transport, shared mobility and transport on demand 

461. Urban  transportation  is  a  dynamic  system  where  one  component  impacts  on  the 
other. Users, through their modal choices, are influencing the development of the 
urban transport system. One of the main challenges that cities face is mitigating the 
vicious cycle triggering an increased reliance on the private conventionally fuelled 
car in particular. There is a positive correlation between cities that have achieved a 
high share of public transport usage and reduced congestion. However, continuous 
investments  backed  by  a  long  term  strategy  and  density  to  stabilize  demand  are 

317 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/road_safety/specialist/statistics_en 

115 

 
 
                                                      
needed.  It  is  equally  needed  to  create  the  right  conditions  for  public  transport  to 
flourish, such as, for example congestion charging or parking management.318 
462. According  to  a  2020  working  paper  by  DG  REGIO319,  in  virtually  all  European 
cities analysed, at least 80 % of the population has easy access to public transport. 
In  addition,  56  %  of  an  average  city’s  population  has  access  to  at  least  10 
departures  an  hour.  Access  to  high-frequency  departures  is  generally  higher  in 
cities with at least 1 million inhabitants and considerably lower in cities with fewer 
than 250 000 inhabitants, although there are some exceptions.  

463. There is room for improvement of accessibility of public transport. A comparison 
between the population  accessible by public transport with  the nearby population 
in 42 European cities shows that within 30 minutes people can only reach 24 % of 
the population living within a distance of 7.5 kilometres.320  

464. According to the latest EC survey on Quality of Life in European Cities321, across 
the surveyed cities, the share of public transport users varies from less than 30 % to 
slightly more than 60 % and this share increases with city size. In most countries, 
the  share  of  public  transport  use  is  highest  in  capital  cities,  in  part  because  these 
cities tend to have an extensive public transport network with frequent services. 

465. A  high  use  of  public  transport  and  satisfaction  with  public  transport  go  hand  in 
hand,  as  on  average  three  out  of  four  city  residents  are  satisfied  with  public 
transport, and a positive relation is seen between public transport satisfaction and 
satisfaction  about  living  in  a  city.  Out  of  key  aspects  of  public  transport: 
affordability,  safety,  accessibility,  frequency,  and  reliability  of  service,  public 
transport  frequency  is  found  to  be  the  largest  driver  for  users’  satisfaction322. 
Public  transport  plays  a  key  role  in  connectivity  and  provides  ample  economic 
opportunities,  with  many  quality  local  jobs  that  are  impossible  or  hard  to 
delocalise. Urban and suburban public transport services carry approximately 185 
million  passengers  on  an  average  working  day  across  the  EU,  providing  the 
backbone  of  urban  mobility  in  many  EU  cities.  The  public  transport  sector  alone 
employs  around  2  million  people  in  the  EU,  being  a  very  important  employer  in 
almost  every  city,  and  the  economic  value  of  public  transport  services  are 
estimated at EUR 130 - 150 billion per year323.     

466. Public transport is one of the most cost-efficient way to decarbonise people’s daily 
mobility.  It  is  also  one  of  the  safest  ways  to  move  people  around,  and  in  a 
sustainable  manner.  Its  social  aspects  should  not  be  underestimated,  neither:  it 
provides a  relatively  affordable mobility option  for a large part of the population 
contributing  to  enhancing  connectivity.  As  it  brings  people  together,  it  plays 
important role in social cohesion and local development, too.  

318 Alonso Raposo, M. (Ed.), Ciuffo, B. (Ed.), Alves Dies, P., Ardente, F., Aurambout, J-P., Baldini, G., Baranzelli, C., Blagoeva, 
D.,  Bobba,  S.,  Braun,  R.,  Cassio,  L.,  Chawdhry,  P.,  Christidis,  P.,  Christodoulou,  A.,  Corrado,  S.,  Duboz,  A.,  Duch  Brown,  N., 
Felici, S., Fernández Macías, E., Ferragut, J., Fulli, G., Galassi, M-C., Georgakaki, A., Gkoumas , K., Grosso, M., Gómez Vilchez, 
J., Hajdu, M.,  Iglesias, M., Julea, A.,  Krause, J., Kriston, A.,  Lavalle, C.,  Lonza,  L.,  Lucas,  A., Makridis, M., Marinopoulos, A., 
Marmier, A., Marques dos Santos, F., Martens, B., Mattas, K., Mathieux, F., Menzel, G., Minarini,  F., Mondello, S., Moretto, P., 
Mortara, B., Navajas Cawood, E., Paffumi, E., Pasimeni, F., Pavel, C., Pekár, F., Pisoni, E., Raileanu, I-C., Sala, S., Saveyn, B., 
Scholz, H., Serra, N., Tamba, M., Thiel, C., Trentadue, G., Tecchio, P., Tsakalidis, A., Uihlein, A., van Balen, M., Vandecasteele, I., 
(2019).  The  future  of  road  transport  -  Implications  of  automated,  connected,  low-carbon  and  shared  mobility,  EUR  29748  EN, 
Publications  Office  of  the  European  Union,  Luxembourg,  ISBN  978-92-76-14318-5,  doi:  10.2760/668964,  JRC116644. 
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/eur-scientific-and-technical-research-reports/future-road-transport. 
319 Poelman, H. Dijkstra, L. and Ackermans, L. (2020): How many people can you reach by public transport, bicycle or on foot in 
European Cities? Measuring urban accessibility for low-carbon modes. Regio Working Papers 01/2020. 
320 Ibid.  
321 European Commission (2020), Report on the quality of life in European cities 2020, Publications Office of the European Union: 
Luxembourg. 
322 Ibid. 
323 UITP 

116 

 
                                                      
467. When it comes to reducing congestion, a full standard bus carries the same number 
of people as 40 cars while a full metro set carries the equivalent of 600 (assuming 
current average occupancy rates for cars). In addition to traffic reduction, it frees 
up space otherwise used for parking in dense urban areas. 

468. Public transport, being normally linked with active mobility, contributes positively 
to public health policies by improving health of individuals, in particular in urban 
areas. According to a recent research study, compared with commuting by private 
motorised vehicle, rail commuters had a 10% lower rate of all-cause mortality and 
a  21%  decreased  rate  of  cardiovascular  disease  mortality,  in  addition  to  a  12% 
reduced rate of incident cancer324.         

469. Public transport and especially light rail provides low-emission affordable mobility 
with  limited  need  for  public  space.  However,  procurement  of  light  rail,  like  tram 
and  metro,  remains  extremely  costly  due  to  the  very  high  customisation  and  the 
absence  of  EU  interoperability  standards.  More  ‘off  the  shelf’  products  and  joint 
procurement  would  lead  to  costs  reductions  and  thereby  more  attractive  mass 
transport market. 

470. A dynamic, sustainable and safe local passenger transport on demand is also part of 
the  solution  to  the  challenges  cities  face  today.  Things  have  changed  in  recent 
years,  mainly  thanks  to  digital  technology  and  the  emergence  of  intermediation 
platforms.  The  right  solutions  to  ensure  that  passenger  transport  on  demand  can 
deliver efficient services to citizens, while taking into account environmental and 
social concerns including working conditions of drivers. In 2016, the Commission 
adopted its communication “A European agenda for the collaborative economy325”, 
has already provided some useful guidance in this regard, but there is clearly need 
for further clarity. The related issues are further discussed in section 4.3.5. 

4.1.3.4  Urban logistics 

471. Urban logistics is an integral part of urban mobility. It is a fast-developing industry 
paramount for the  growth of the cities’ economic activities, but  it is  a significant 
contributor  to  congestion,  pollution  as  well  as  to  road  accidents.  For  instance,  in 
Europe it is responsible for 25 % of urban transport related CO2 emissions and 30-
50 % of other transport related pollutants. In addition a growing urban population 
combined with other trends such as e-commerce and home delivery together with 
an  ageing  population  will  lead  to  an  increase  in  demand  for  goods  and  services 
with a consequent increase in urban freight demand. 

472. Hence a special consideration to Sustainable Urban Logistics Planning (SULP) is 
needed326.  This  is  of  high  relevance  for  cities  as  urban  logistics  planning  is  a 
complex process. There is significant potential to improve operations and services, 
and  captive  fleets,  such  as  mail  delivery  vehicles  and  refuse  collection  vehicles, 
can be well suited for the early introduction of new types of vehicles, alternative 
fuels and safety technology to reduce emissions and safety risks.  

473. Thanks to the Directive on the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure327, to 
CO2 emission performance standards for cars and light- and heavy-duty vehicles328 

324 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30079-6/fulltext  
325 COM (2016/0356 final 
326  A 
https://www.eltis.org/sites/default/files/sustainable_urban_logistics_planning_0.pdf  
327 Directive 2014/94/EU 
328 Regulation (EU) 2019/631 and  Regulation (EU) 2019/1242 

dedicated 

context 

SUMP  was 

guide 

topic 

the 

of 

in 

117 

published 

in  October 

2019. 

 
                                                      
and  to  the  Clean  Vehicles  Directive329,  the  key  elements  of  the  regulatory 
framework  to  promote  sustainable  alternative  fuels  and  zero-  and  low-emission 
vehicles  are  now  in  place.  This  framework  is  complemented  by  platforms  for 
exchange  of  best  practice  like  CIVITAS  and  ELTIS  as  well  as  EU  financial 
support. 

474. Multimodal  integration  of  urban  logistics,  including  the  use  of  zero  and  low 
emission  vehicles,  urban  rail  and  inland  navigation  is  important.  It  can  create  a 
reliable  and  safe  alternative  to  road  only  solutions,  making  better  use  of  the 
available  infrastructure  and  services,  thus  contributing  to  a  strong,  resilient  and 
integrated transport system. Smaller suburban hubs or depots can avoid operations 
of  several  delivery  services  on  the  same  routes  by  an  effective  use  of  common 
package stations. The last mile delivery in the city centres can then be transformed 
into cleaner modes such as electric vehicles, cargo bikes330 or zero emission inland 
vessels.  

475. Urban  and  regional  freight  services  have  seen  significant  innovation  through  the 
deployment  of  real-time  smart  logistics  information  and  tracking  networks, 
warehouse  automation,  a  growing  fleet  of  electric  delivery  vehicles  and  the 
emergence  of  sustainable  micro-distribution  by  cargo  bikes  or  other  micro-
vehicles,  including, potentially, drones. While digital  solutions  have already been 
in  use  for  some  time,  next  steps  include  the  sharing  of  data  and  information  to 
consumers,  retailers  and  distributors  to  squeeze  efficiency  from  the  system. 
Furthermore  data  collection  and  sharing  of  data  are  pivotal  areas  for  reinforced 
cooperation as well as that of working on common indicators for urban logistics.  

4.1.4  Multimodality and modal shift 

476. The European Green Deal states that: “Multimodal transport needs a strong boost. 
This will increase the efficiency of the transport system. As a matter of priority, a 
substantial  part  of  the  75%  of  inland  freight  carried  today  by  road  should  shift 
onto rail and inland waterways”. 

477.  ‘Multimodality’ in the transport sector, or "multimodal transport" refers to the use 
of  different  modes  (or  means)  of  transport  on  the  same  journey.  The  concept 
applies to both freight and passenger transport and in both cases can now be driven 
on by the  growing trend towards digitalisation. Multimodality takes advantage of 
the strengths  of the different  modes, such as convenience, speed, cost,  reliability, 
predictability, and in combination, can offer more efficient transport solutions for 
people  and  goods  which  will  help  ease  the  pressure  on  our  congested  transport 
infrastructure,  and  make  the  whole  sector  more  environmentally  friendly,  safer, 
and cost efficient. 

478. The  whole  EU  would  benefit  from  a  more  resource-efficient  transport  system,  in 
particular  one  that  better  optimises  the  combined  use  of  soft  modes,  individual 
road, collective road and rail as well as longer-distance air transport for passengers, 
and  rail,  waterborne  and  road  transport  for  freight.  Multimodality  can  provide  an 
attractive and efficient alternative to private car ownership and transport by lorries. 
However infrastructure, tools and incentives for multi-modal connectivity are still 
limited and vary widely between Member States and regions. Multimodal transport 

329 Directive 2009/33/EC 
330  The  KoMoDo  project  in  Berlin  involved  cargo  bikes  being  used  for  the  last-mile  delivery  of  packages.  28,000  kilometres  of 
journeys by vans have been avoided as a result. Districts are now putting the experience obtained here to use in similar projects. 
https://www.berlin.de/sen/uvk/en/traffic/transport-planning/cycling/ 

118 

 
                                                      
is  hindered  also  by  administrative  barriers  and  excessive  complexity  due  to 
differences in sectoral and modal legislations at both the EU and national levels. 

479. To understand the current role each transport mode plays in the EU-27 for freight, 
it is worth noting that the modal split has not significantly changed since 2008. For 
the  external  trade  of  the  EU  in  2018,  maritime  transport  was  the  predominant 
mode,  representing  46.7%  of  the  value  of  exports  and  imports,  followed  by  air 
transport  (20.6  %  and  road  transport  (20.4%).  For  intra-EU  trade,  maritime 
transport counted for 29.2 % of the modal split  in 2018 (2008:  25.9 %), whereas 
road transport represented half of the modal split for freight in 2018 (51%, slightly 
less  than  in  2008).  The  modal  share  of  rail  freight  transport  has  decreased 
marginally  from  13.2%  in  2008  to  12.6%  in  2018.  The  (low)  share  of  inland 
navigation  in  the  modal  split  for  freight  slightly  decreased  from  4.6%  to  3.9  % 
during the same period.331 

480. For passenger transport in the EU-27, cars remain the dominant mode of transport, 
with a share of 71.7 % in 2018 (2008: 72.6%). Intra-EU aviation has expanded its 
modal share from 7.1 % in 2008 to 9.6 % in 2018 and is thus ahead of buses and 
coaches (8 % in 2018) and railways (6.9% in 20178.332 

481. Looking at land transport only, the passenger car dominates within the EU-27, with 
a share of 78 % in 2008 and 80 % in 2018. Throughout the same period, the rail 
mode  share  rose  from  7.3%  to  7.7  %  and  tram  and  metro  mode  share  rose  from 
1.6%  to  1.7%.  Bus  and  coach  share  instead  fell  from  10.3%  to  9  %.  Looking  at 
each  country,  the  figure  below  shows  that  in  2018  Austria,  the  Netherlands  and 
France were the only countries where rail had a share of more than 10%. Between 
2015  and  2018,  the  rail  modal  share  increased333  the  most  in  Poland,  Czechia, 
Austria  and  Estonia  and  decreased  the  most  in  Denmark,  Hungary  and  Croatia 
(change in percentage points).  

331  Source:  European  Commission  (2020):  EU  Transport  in  Figures.  Statistical  Pocketbook  2020.  Air  and  Sea:  estimates;  only 
domestic  and  intra-EU-28  transport.  Road:  national  and  international  haulage  performed  by  European  drivers  within  the  EU 
territory. 
332 Ibid. 
333 Based on Eurostat modal shares data, which includes passenger cars; trains; and motor coaches, buses and trolleys 

119 

 
                                                      
Figure 31: Passenger land transport modal split by country (%, 2018) and change in 
percentage points for rail (2015-2018)334 

Source: Eurostat and statistical pocketbook 2020. 

482. According  to  a  detailed  analysis  of  rail  passenger  services  by  DG  REGIO,  rail 
transport  performance  is  widely  disparate  across  the  European  Union335.  While 
cities  consistently  perform  better  than  towns,  suburbs  and  rural  areas  in  all 
countries, there are also cities with no rail services during peak travelling hours.  

483. Analysis shows that improving the offer of high-speed rail services would provide 
passengers with an alternative to short-haul flights. In particular where high-speed 
rail services can be linked to form an attractive offer with long distance flights (e.g. 
Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam), this could not only reduce CO2 emissions compared 
to  short-haul  feeder  flights,  but  also  free  up  scarce  airport  capacity  and  avoid 
maintaining unprofitable air routes. This  would  however  require investments  into 
improving the access of high-speed rail to airports.   

334 2011 data for EU 27 as shown in     
COM(2019) 51 final https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/staff_working_document_-_6th_rmms_report.pdf 
335 https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/work/032020_rail_transport_performance.pdf  

120 

 
 
 
                                                      
Figure 32: Air routes between metropolitan regions where rail travel times are below 2.5 
hours by train 

Source: EBP work for the European Commission 

121 

 
 
Figure 33: Air routes between metropolitan regions where rail travel times are below 4 
hours by train 

Source: EBP work for the European Commission 

484. Improving  the  offer  in  high-speed  services  is  not  only  a  question  of  providing 
adequate infrastructure but also of offering cheaper and more flexible and reliable 
rail services: market opening under the Fourth Railway Package will allow railway 
undertakings other than the national incumbent to offer services on any line in the 
EU  (with  exceptions  to  protect  the  viability  of  public  service  operations)  from 
December  2020.  However,  international  passenger  services,  including  long-
distance services and night trains, face the following problems336:  

 

Traffic  planning  and  management  is  often  insufficiently  coordinated  by 
infrastructure managers and authorities across borders;  

  Access  to  rail  service  facilities,  ticket  sale  and  real-time  travel  information 
during the journey can be difficult because not ensured seamlessly and across 
service providers;  

336 These issues will be discussed in depth in the sections that follow. 

122 

 
 
 
                                                      
 

Technical interoperability, in particular the use of different power systems and 
legacy  signalling  systems  remains  a  challenge  to  cross-border  service 
provision. Unjustified differences in national safety and operating rules cause 
obstacles to seamless transport. 

  Acquisition of rolling stock is challenging for new entrants due to the absence 

of a well-functioning second had rolling stock market. 

  Different  approaches  to  charging  and  taxation  across  modes  result  in 
comparatively high prices for long distance passenger rail (rail infrastructure 
use  is  charged  per  km  and  mark-ups  tend  to  focus  on  longer  distance 
passenger  rail  as  other  market  segments,  such  as,  for  instance,  freight 
transport are less able to bear mark-ups). 

  Market  opening  will  turn  high-speed  services  that  complied  with  certain 
publicly imposed requirements into hybrid services (partly open access, partly 
PSO  based),  which  may  raise  legal  and  financial  challenges  for  competent 
authorities and infrastructure manager. 

485. Night  trains  could  offer  an  interesting  and  more  environmentally  friendly 
alternative to car and air travel and the political interest for the promotion of night 
train services in Europe has gained traction. This market segment could be further 
developed, either on a commercial basis (open access) or through tendered PSOs, 
within the framework established in the Fourth Railway Package.  

486. Bus and coach transport is a very efficient and affordable mode of transport, which 
is able to complement rail transport in areas not benefitting from rail infrastructure 
and  for  bringing  passengers  from  and  to  multi-modal  hubs.  Moreover,  it  has  the 
potential of becoming zero emissions with the same technologies used for lorries. 
However,  despite  these  benefits,  the  modal  share  of  bus  and  coach  transport  has 
remained  unchanged,  while  the  use  of  passenger  cars  has  kept  increasing.  The 
Commission made a proposal337 to  address  this situation, through amendments  to 
Regulation  (EC)  No  1073/2009,  but  the  proposal  has  not  made  progress  in  the 
Council.  

487. Article  20  of  Regulation  1008/2008  allows  Member  States  to  limit  or  ban  flights 
when  serious  environmental  problems  exist,  in  particular  when  more  sustainable 
modes  of  transport  provide  appropriate  levels  of  service.  Several  Member  States 
are  considering  such  measures  to  contribute  to  the  goal  of  climate  neutrality.  In 
doing  so,  they  will  have  to  make  sure  that  any  such  measures  is  non-
discriminatory,  does  not  distort  competition  between  air  carriers  and  is  not  more 
restrictive  than  necessary  to  relieve  the  problem.  Such  a  measure  cannot  exceed 
three years, after that it will have to be reviewed. 

488.  Key  barriers  to  increased  multimodality,  in  particular  for  passengers,  can  be 
overcome by the solutions offered by digitalisation. These issues will be discussed 
further in section 4.2.1. 

489. Research  and  innovation  will  play  a  vital  role  to  develop  and  validate  new 
solutions for an integrated transport system with seamless transfer between modes 
and  traffic  management  across  sectors  to  ensure  availability  of  efficient  door-to-
door  mobility  solutions  also  in  times  of  local  disruptions  (weather  events,  traffic 
incidents etc.). Large scale demonstrations could help to validate better solutions. 

337Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Regulation (EC) No 1073/2009 on common 
rules for access to the international market for coach and bus services [COM(2017)647]. 

123 

 
                                                      
4.1.4.1  Improving multimodal freight operations 

490. Effective management of freight transport and logistics chains is a precondition for 
EU  industrial  competitiveness  and  a  more  sustainable  transport  sector.  Industry 
depends on high-quality, efficient and multimodal logistics chains to organise the 
transport of raw materials and goods across the EU and beyond.  

491. While 

logistics 

is  primarily  a  business-related  activity,  fragmented  and 
incompatible  rules  and  standards  can  create  considerable  red 
tape  and 
inefficiencies  to  the  logistics  industry  and  affect  also  the  competitiveness  of 
transport.  Therefore,  suboptimal 
road-only 
multimodal 
functioning  of  supply  chains  also  results  in  higher  transport  emissions.  The 
industry is asking for a coherent EU approach to logistics and multimodal transport 
that  demands  co-operation  and  co-ordination  between  different  dimensions  of 
transport policy and beyond.  

transport  vis-à-vis 

492. One key aspect of the efficient use of transport is a high load factor. For example, 
road  transport  is  known  for  having  a  share  of  empty  runs  of  about  20%,  which 
obviously  reduces  the  overall  load  factor.  Part  of  these  empty  runs  can  be 
explained  by  the  use  of  dedicated  equipment  (e.g.  lorries  designed  for  milk 
transport),  which  typically  cannot  carry  return  loads  as  well  as  by  the  necessary 
empty driving when going to load cargo. But more often the reason is fragmented 
markets  where  loads  cannot  be  arranged  for  return  journeys.  For  rail  freight 
transport,  the  share  of  empty  wagons  in  single  wagonload  transport  reported  by 
three major operators is in the range of 30 to 65 %338, which is particularity striking 
given  increasing  capacity  constraints  and  expensive  infrastructure.  Consequently, 
there is ample room to improve the load factors and it would provide an immediate 
relief  in  congestion  and  decrease  in  CO2  emissions  for  each  tonne  transported. 
Digitalisation of and transparency on available wagon load may play a key role. 
493. The modal share of non-road hinterland freight was around 28% in 2018339. (~6% 
for  IWT;  18.7%  rail340).  The  competitiveness  of  rail  freight  transport  increases 
proportionally  to  the  distance.  Consequently,  around  50%  of  volumes  are  moved 
across borders (compared to 6% of passenger traffic), giving the rail freight market 
an obvious European dimension.  

494. There  are several  factors inherent  to  intermodal  transport that  generate additional 
costs for the operators and users (related to transhipment and additional transaction 
costs)  and  other  disadvantages  such  as  longer  delivery  times,  complexity,  higher 
risks and lower reliability. The figure below illustrates, based on cost data from the 
2017  Survey  study341,  the  costs  incurred  by  shippers  when  choosing  intermodal 
(rail-road) transport compared to  road transport  only.  In addition,  the rail  freight, 
short sea shipping and inland waterways sectors need to  continue to  adjust to the 
changing  characteristics  of  the  market,  where  supply  chain  management  is 
expected to become more flexible and faster. 

338 PWC et al. (2015) Study on Single Wagonload Traffic in Europe  – challenges, prospects and policy options. Final report, July 
2015, https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/2015-07-swl-final-report.pdf 
339  17.9 % rail ; 5.7% inland waterways; 4.4% pipelines. Source: European Commission (2020): EU Transport in Figures. Statistical 
Pocketbook 2020 
340  Figures  do  not  include  pipelines.  https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Freight_transport_statistics_-
_modal_split 
341 TRT (2017) – Gathering additional data on EU combined transport – Final report 

124 

 
 
                                                      
Figure 34 Cost level and composition of intermodal transport compared to road-only 
transport 

Source: European Commission342 

495. Adequate conditions need to be created incentivising the industry to use intermodal 
transport  instead  of  road-only  transport.  The  amendment  of  the  only  dedicated 
instrument,  the  Combined  Transport  Directive,  was  proposed  in  2017.  However, 
the positions of three institutions were far apart and, given a risk of ending up in a 
situation  in  which  the  incentives  for  combined  transport  could  be  further 
weakened, the Commission decided to withdraw the proposal. This means that the 
support measures in force for combined transport remain insufficient and are out of 
date. 

496. The internal market for intermodal transport is poorly developed also due to lack of 
transhipment infrastructure (terminals), inefficiencies due to  variations in sectoral 
legislation and the differences in  technical  norms and standards used by  Member 
States and between the modes.  

497. First of all, infrastructure bottlenecks still exist and further work is needed both at 
EU and Member States level as regards investments in cross-border infrastructure, 
in  particular  the  main  corridors.  The  density  and  choice  of  type  of  multimodal 
terminals and logistics hubs needs to take into account new trends and developing 
needs of the industry, in particular in urban areas. The distances between rail/road 
terminals  on  the  TEN-T  Core  and  Comprehensive  networks  are  still  well  above 
300  km  in  many  regions;  limiting  the  possibility  of  short  (>  150km)  road  legs. 
While  the  availability  of  terminals  is  mostly  sufficient  in  Benelux,  Germany, 
Austria,  Czechia  and  Slovakia,  their  density  in  Finland  and  in  many  Eastern-
European  countries,  as  well  as  in  some  regions  of  Sweden,  Italy,  France  and 
Hungary  is  such  that  it  is  not  possible  to  use  intermodal  transport.  Improved 
statistical  data  on  combined  transport  flows  would  help  to  prioritise  such 
investments. 

342  Commission  Staff  Working  Document,  Impact  assessment,  Accompanying  the  Proposal  for  a  Directive  of  the  European 
Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 92/106/EEC on the establishment of common rules for certain types of combined 
transport of goods between Member States, SWD(2017) 362 final 

125 

 
 
 
 
                                                      
Figure 35 Intermodal terminals with rail access occurrence in Europe343 

498. Second, multimodal freight transport activities are subject to various sectoral rules. 
The  range  of  legal  instruments  concerned  is  very  broad,  including  the  rules 
applicable  to  vehicles  (technical,  safety,  environmental  norms  and  standards),  to 
personnel  (e.g.  professional  qualifications,  working  time,  posting  of  workers),  to 
services (market access) and goods (e.g. customs, provisions for dangerous goods). 
At the same time, the prevalence  of sectoral  and modal approach has  led to  gaps 
where  e.g.  no  tailored  approach  exist  at  EU  level  for  multimodal  investment 
projects either as regards state aid or for project assessment.  

499. Quick  implementation  of  comprehensive  digital  solutions  would  cut  red  tape  and 
lower  the  administrative  burden  deriving  from  different  sectoral  and  national 
requirements.  Further  digitalisation  and  solutions  to  data  sharing  are  needed  to 
support efficient functioning of transport corridors. These are further discussed in 
section 4.2. 

500. EU transport policy aims to overcome barriers arising from a lack of coordination 
of technical norms and standards between Member States and transport modes. For 
example,  the  TEN-T  Guidelines  set  common  parameters  for  the  length  of  trains. 
EU  legislation  on  rail  interoperability  and  safety  allows  trains  to  operate  under  a 
harmonised  set  of  rules  and  the  Commission  is  working  with  the  EU  Railway 
Agency and Member States to ensure superfluous national rules are withdrawn. A 
continued effort to ensure harmonised framework conditions is important to avoid 
unnecessary costs for multimodal transport. 

501. Finally, the lack of internalisation of the  external  costs of  all modes  continues to 
penalise the competitiveness of intermodal transport vis-à-vis road-only transport. 
In the absence of pricing mechanisms fully reflecting the ‘polluter pays’ principle, 

343 Pastori et al. (2018) , Research for TRAN Committee – Modal shift in European transport: a way forward, European Parliament, 
Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies, Brussels 
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2018/629182/IPOL_STU(2018)629182_EN.pdf 

126 

 
 
 
                                                      
intermodal  transport  remains  financially  disadvantaged  except  on  very  long 
distances of the order of magnitude of 600 km, unless public support is provided to 
compensate for the uncovered external costs of competing modes.  

4.1.4.2  Rail freight 

502. Given  the  potential  role  of  rail  freight  in  the  internal  market,  the  EU  adopted 
legislation344  to  open  competition  between  rail  freight  service  providers  from  1 
January  2007.  In  addition,  eleven  rail  freight  corridors  have  been  established  by 
Regulation  (EU)  No  913/2010  to  specifically  support  international  rail  freight 
transport.  The  focus  of  the  legislation  was  on  fair  and  non-discriminatory 
conditions for the provision and use of railway infrastructure.  

503. In  parallel  to  opening  the  rail  freight  market,  the  EU  developed  legislation  on 
railway  interoperability  with  a  view  to  reduce  the  technical,  and  operational 
barriers  to  cross-border  rail  traffic,  while  reducing  the  impact  on  human  health, 
notably by setting noise limits. The technical pillar of the Fourth Railway Package 
includes  substantial  elements both  harmonising  EU requirements for rail vehicles 
and  operations,  and  facilitating  the  clean-up  and  elimination  of  obstacles  to 
seamless rail services caused by redundant national rules. Taken together these will 
reduce the cost of rail equipment and operations.     

504. On the infrastructure side, diverging parameters, for example with respect to train 
length  and  loading  gauge,  continue  to  pose  a  significant  barrier  to  more  efficient 
freight operations.     

505. Full deployment of ERTMS (the European Rail Traffic Management System) and 
the  harmonisation  of  respective  operating  rules  at  EU  level  will  further  reduce 
costs  and  complexity  for  rail  operators  (since  they  will  no  longer  need  different 
safety  systems  for  each  Member  State),  and  in  the  medium  term  will  allow 
substantial  cost  savings  to  rail  infrastructure  managers  and  potentially  major 
capacity increases. In the short term however, it imposes locomotive upgrade costs 
(hardware, training, testing and certification) on operators with already small profit 
margins. 

506. Despite the above mentioned measures,  a number of issues continue to  affect  the 

performance of rail freight: 

507. Due  to  structural  economic  change,  notably  the  declining  importance  of  heavy 
industry in the EU, the goods being transported have undergone profound change, 
greatly  reducing  the  freight  flows  where  rail  had  a  clear  competitive  advantage, 
e.g. in the transport of mass commodities such as coal and iron ore. Rail freight is 
less competitive for the increasing share of goods that require flexibility and more 
reliability, such as high-value components moved between manufacturers as part of 
complex supply chains and consumer goods. 

508. For  customers,  rail  freight’s  attractiveness  suffers  from  lack  of  punctuality, 
reliability, predictability and flexibility. In the first quarter of 2018, the percentage 
of freight trains delayed more than 3 hours reached 50% along the Alpine corridor. 
In this context fits reference to efforts to  reduce delays such as the agreement by 
corridors, to reduce the maximum border crossing time to 2 hours, which passenger 
trains manage mostly without dedicated border stops. In the Green Lanes upgrade 

344 Directive 2004/51/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 April 2004 amending Council Directive 91/440/EEC 
on the development of the Community's railways 

127 

 
                                                      
communication345  adopted  on  28  October  2020,  the  Commission  announced 
continuous  monitoring  of  schedule  adherence  and  on  time  performance  of  rail 
freight trains at border stations, including dwelling times. 

509. Information  on  the  composition  of  trains,  location  and  expected  time  of  arrival 
(ETA), type of cargo and load factors etc. is scarce. Digital systems to plan, deliver 
and  monitor  rail  services  are  often  national.  A  European  digital  layer  is  in 
preparation,  to  a  large  extent  on  the  basis  of  the  technical  specifications  for 
telematics applications for freight and passenger services (TAF and TAP TSI), but 
it is not yet fully in place and use. In addition, capacity and traffic management is 
generally not coordinated between rail infrastructure and service facilities such as 
intermodal terminals. This hinders the ability to optimise the infrastructure, traffic 
and fleet management from an end-to-end perspective. 

510. The performance of single wagon freight is hindered by the need for wagons to be 
manually coupled each time they are shunted – in spite of the fact that automated 
couplers are in widespread use in the rest of the world (since the late 19th century 
in  North  America).  To  date  the  cost  of  transforming  the  EU  wagon  fleet  and  the 
need to arrange a rapid migration at European level have prevented use of this in 
the  EU,  but  the  potential  of  modern  coupling  systems  (which  would  also  permit 
power  and  data  transmission)  means  this  issue  needs  to  be  urgently  addressed. 
Work  on  specifications  for  Digital  Automatic  Couplers  is  being  carried  out  in 
Shift2Rail Joint Undertaking with a view of incorporating it into the TSI. 

511. Freight  has  usually  a  low  priority  both  in  capacity  planning,  i.e.  when  preparing 
rail  timetables,  and  in  operational  traffic  management,  i.e.  during  operations,  in 
case  of  delays.  In  addition,  cross-border  freight  services  often  remain  “trapped” 
between different priorities set at national level, reducing their speed and reliability 
for customers and resource productivity for operators. 

512. Traditional rules for capacity allocation and management based on the definition of 
a  yearly  timetable  for  individual  train  paths  also  hinder  more  market  driven 
business  models.  Rail  is  often  unable  to  respond  to  short-notice  requests  for 
services  from  freight  customers,  with  new  services  requiring  months  of  pre-
planning.  Due to historical reasons and the prevalence of domestic traffic, such as 
commuter and regional traffic, there is still a lack of capacity of adequate quality 
available for cross-border freight traffic. This can be aggravated by lack of cross-
border  coordination  of  traffic  management  but  also  works  on  neighbouring 
networks,  fragmentation  and  national  orientation  of  IT  tools  used  for  capacity 
planning and traffic management, or poor cooperation on issues such as charging 
and  performance.  All  of  these  issues  have  a  clear  network  dimension  and  the 
current  lack  of  coordination  hinders  the  achievement  of  a  truly  Single  European 
Railways Area. 

513. Infrastructure managers seem to underemphasize their role as ‘traffic managers’ as 
opposed  to  managing  the  rail  infrastructure  assets.  In  some  Member  States, 
sophisticated schemes are in place to monitor and improve the state of the network 
but  the  impact  of  infrastructure  works  for  maintenance  and  renewal  on  traffic  is 
often not sufficiently taken into account. This is often caused by a lack of uptake of 
digital tools and automation of infrastructure managers business processes. 

345 COM(2020) 685 final Communication “upgrading the transport Green Lanes to keep the economy going during the COVID-19 
pandemic resurgence” 

128 

 
                                                      
514. Profitability  in  the  rail  freight  sector  remains  low,  limiting  the  motivation  for 
investment in new technologies and innovation or diversification of business areas 
to  support  growth  strategies.  New  operators  have  entered  the  market  but  operate 
mostly  in  niches,  serving  specific  corridors  or  industries.  Many  incumbent  rail 
freight  operators  are  in  chronic  loss  and  rely  on  regular  recapitalisation  and/or 
reorganisation  to  survive.  Some  market  segments,  like  single  wagon  load  and 
combined transport,  are  highly subsidised  – or have simply  disappeared.  Overall, 
freight  operators  still  have  a  way  to  go  to  better  realise  market  potentials  and  to 
optimise  operations  and  business  models.  In  addition,  the  absence  of  a  level 
playing  field  with  other  modes  and  high  operational  costs,  e.g.  for  intermodal 
transhipment  and  single  wagon  load,  increase  the  challenge  of  finding  a  viable 
business model.  

515. Investments  into  infrastructure  (at  EU  and  national  level)  have  not  always 
supported operational improvements and infrastructure maintenance works are not 
duly  coordinated  across  borders.  Furthermore,  in  the  event  of  incidents  or 
infrastructure  works,  it  has  been  difficult  to  provide  diversionary  routes  with 
suitable characteristics (train length, gauge, axle load, etc.) even along the key axes 
included  in  the  Rail  Freight  Corridors  (RFCs).  This  can  deeply  affect  both  rail 
competitiveness  and  EU  businesses.  As  an  example,  the  total  losses  from  the 
Rastatt,  Germany  incident  in  August/September  2017,  where  a  major  freight  line 
was closed for 8 weeks, have been estimated at approximately EUR 2 billion346.  
516. The  Regulation  establishing  the  Rail  Freight  Corridors347  is  currently  under 
evaluation. More efficient use of rail infrastructure capacity at the EU level would 
be  instrumental  for  making  rail  freight  transport  more  competitive,  both  in 
multimodal  context  and  as  a  mode  on  its  own.  Stronger  cross-border  traffic 
management  cooperation,  coordination  and  smooth  operations  suffering  less 
obstacles  from  redundant  national  rules  remain  a  significant  challenge  for  the 
sector,  which  should  be  considered  with  the  involvement  and  commitment  of 
Member  States,  infrastructure  managers,  infrastructure  users  and  customers  of 
freight services.  

517. Effective management of EU rail infrastructure is another important subject when 
it comes to building a truly single European railway area. An important element is 
the need to redesign the governance process for managing railway capacity so that 
it enables rail freight operators to provide transport services in line with the needs 
of their customers in terms of reliability, punctuality and flexibility. This requires a 
management process that considers rail capacity in a continuous manner across all 
planning and operational phases, and which is supported by state-of-the art digital 
tools.  Such  an  approach  would  overcome  the  current  lack  of  continuity  and 
integration,  creating  a  transparent  link  between  the  mid-  to  long-term  capacity 
needs  expected  by  operators  and  customers,  the  planning  of  infrastructure  works 
restricting  available  capacity  by  infrastructure  managers  and  the  flexible, 
discrimination-free allocation of capacity when concrete capacity needs are known, 
including a short-notice allocation of train paths for spot traffic and in the event of 
disruptions. In addition, experience with the Rail Freight Corridors has shown that 
due  to  the  prevalence  of  mixed-used  lines  in  the  EU  railway  network,  a 
comprehensive approach to capacity management – comprising both passenger and 

346https://www.railfreight.com/corridors/2018/04/22/economic-damage-of-rastatt-incident-2-2-billion-euros/ ; 
http://www.hupac.com/EN/Study-Rastatt-disruption-b26dcc00?MasterId=g1_3725  
347 Regulation (EU) No 913/2010 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 22 September 2010 concerning a European rail 
network for competitive freight, OJ L 276, 20.10.2010, p. 22. 

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freight  traffic  –  is  currently  absent  and  hinders  optimal  utilisation  of  network 
capacity (see also section 4.3.2). 

518. In  order  to  implement  such  a  novel  governance  approach  in  a  harmonised  and 
effective manner, it may be necessary to  provide for rules whereby, to  an extent, 
management  of  capacity  takes  place  at  a  level  beyond  national  borders.  In  some 
cases,  the  most  appropriate  way  to  do  so  may  be  to  strengthen  the  role  and 
competences  of  the  existing  rail  freight  corridors.  In  others,  it  may  be  more 
efficient  to  coordinate  or  assign  certain  tasks  and  functions  at  the  EU  level.  It  is 
necessary to thoroughly assess different options and to consider a possible revision 
of  the  Regulation  establishing  the  Rail  Freight  Corridors348  and,  if  necessary, 
corresponding provisions of Directive 2012/34/EU establishing a single European 
rail area. 

4.1.4.3  Inland waterways 

519. Inland waterway transport is particularly relevant for certain corridors, for instance, 
current market characteristics show that for cross-border traffic within the Rhine-
Alpine Corridor, inland waterways have a share of 54%. This mode of transport is 
especially  important  for  some  goods  segments.  In  particular,  inland  navigation  is 
successful in conquering new market shares within the liquid cargo and container 
segments: its modal share for chemicals and containers show the most potential for 
further  increase,  at  least  since  2008.  Waterways  in  the  heart  of  main  European 
cities  start  playing  an  increasing  role  in  the  transport  of  people  and  the  urban 
distribution of consumer goods, building materials and waste which helps to reduce 
traffic problems and emissions. 

520. The  successive  NAIADES  action  plans  contributed  to  largely  maintaining  the 
modal share of inland waterway transport in  the overall transport mix, despite an 
economic  crisis,  changing  markets,  an  imperfect  governance  framework  and  the 
lack of dedicated funding. The work is not finished yet. Much remains to be done 
to make better use of inland waterway transport and thereby create added value for 
Europe. The current Naiades II programme ending in 2020 is addressing challenges 
to  be  tackled  to  use  the  untapped  potential  of  IWT  to  reach  a  more  sustainable 
transport system.  

521. To make IWT an attractive, reliable and green mode of transport the crucial thing 
is  close  cooperation  with  all  relevant  organisation  at  international  and  regional 
level. A common approach is needed in relation to the future development of this 
sector. Without an inland waterway transport agenda for Europe, there is the risk of 
returning  to  fragmented  and  uncoordinated  actions  that  hamper  the  EU  Single 
Market  and  result  in  more  redundancies  and  barriers,  deteriorating  cross-border 
traffic,  widening  the  digital  divide  and  jeopardising  synergies.  It  would  lead  to  a 
declining role of inland waterway transport in the transport system. It  would also 
deprive  our  economy  and  society  from  the  benefit  of  innovations  resulting  from 
cooperation with other sectors.  

348 Regulation (EU) No 913/2010 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 22 September 2010 concerning a European rail 
network for competitive freight, OJ L 276, 20.10.2010, p. 22. 

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4.1.4.4  Short sea shipping  

522. When  adding  air  and  maritime  transport  to  the  inland  modes,  road  still  keeps  its 
leading position, followed by maritime transport. In 2018, road accounted for just 
over  half  of  all  tonne-kilometres  performed  in  the  EU.  Maritime  transport  came 
next,  with  almost  a  third  of  the  total  transport  performance,  followed  by  rail 
(13.0 %)  and  inland  waterways  (4.1 %).  In  terms  of  tonne-kilometres  performed, 
air transport plays only a marginal role in intra EU freight transport, with a share of 
0.4 %. 

523. However, the EU maritime industry is unable to fully benefit from internal market 
in  short  sea  shipping  due  to  diverging  national  measures,  including  burdensome 
non-harmonised  reporting  obligations  at  each  port  call.  Better  integration  of 
maritime  transport  in  the  entire  logistic  chain,  as  well  as  exploiting  ancillary 
maritime sustainability  measures is  needed. The new Regulation  (EU) 2019/1239 
establishing  a  European  Maritime  Single  Window  environment  (EMSWe),  once 
implemented,  can  simplify  fulfilling  the  reporting  obligations,  but  considerable 
efforts have to be undertaken for the implementation of the new regulation.  

524. However,  although  the  EMSWe  regulation  does  not  harmonise  the  measures  by 
Member States, it provides for the first time a complete overview of such measures 
and  establishes  a  notification  obligation  for  new  legislation  for  Member  States, 
posing a limit to the proliferation of data requests which create barriers to internal 
market in short sea shipping. Furthermore, use of simplified digital procedures for 
internal  market  operations  would  improve  the  competitiveness  of  short  sea 
shipping as compared to other modes of transport where no comparable obligations 
exist on transport of goods between Member States.  

525. This  includes  the  issue  of  making  certain  information  publicly  available  e.g. 
Automatic Identification System (AIS) and actual time or arrival/departure. In this 
regard, the EMSWe regulation provides that arrival/departure times of ships must 
be  made  public  available,  allowing  for  better  planning  of  cargo  and  vessel 
movements,  and  for  increased  integration  of  all  modes  linked  to  and  centred 
around ports. 

4.1.5  Better incentives to users 

526. Currently, transport user do not give enough consideration to sustainability. People 
need to be made aware of the environmental impact of their travel, purchases and 
day-to-day mobility. In other words, the right incentives need to be put in place, in 
addition  to  making  each  and  every  transport  mode  more  sustainable  and  making 
sustainable alternatives widely available.  

4.1.5.1  Pricing and internalisation of external costs 

527. As regards incentives, pricing instruments are powerful tools to green the transport 
sector.  Even  though  both  the  “polluter-pays”  and  the  “user-pays”  principles  have 
been on the EU agenda for a long time349, today in the EU no mode fully pays the 

349 For instance, the user pays principle is enshrined in the Treaties (Article 191 paragraph 2).  
In  its  communication  ‘Strategy  for  the  internalisation  of  external  costs’  (SEC(2008)  2207,  accompanying  COM(2008)435),  the 
Commission has laid down a common methodology to charge all external costs across the whole transport sector.  
In the 2011 ‘White Paper Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area : Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport 
system’, the EC called for, i.a., “the full and mandatory internalisation of external costs for road and rail transport” 

131 

 
                                                      
 
external and infrastructure costs they are directly350 responsible for351;352 (see also 
above). This is a problem that the Commission has repeatedly highlighted and tried 
to  address:  the  pricing  of  transport  services  often  does  not  cater  for  correct  price 
signals and thus prevents an economic effective resource allocation as well as a fair 
burden  sharing  among  users,  polluters  and  society  as  a  whole.  In  turn, 
internalisation  of  external  costs  would  result  in  polluters  and  users  fully  taking 
responsibility  for  the  costs  they  generate,  thereby  providing  them  with  a  strong 
incentive  to  reduce  those  costs  by  opting  for  alternatives,  better  technological 
solutions (i.e. cleaner vehicles), changing use patterns (i.e. using vehicles in times 
when there is no congestion) or decreasing use. 

528. Nonetheless,  despite a Commission  proposal353 to  do so, carbon pricing has been 
introduced only in a fragmented manner across the transport modes, either through 
coverage  by  ETS  (aviation  for  intra-EU  flights,  electric  rail)  or  via  the  CO2 
component in fuel taxes, but only in certain Member States354. Distance-based road 
charging for passenger cars and vans has been implemented only in a few countries 
in  Europe,  while  the  current  systems  of  VAT  and  of  the  taxation  of  energy 
products often discourage the use of sustainable transport solutions or prevent the 
further  incentivising  of  greener  purchases  by  consumers.  Taxation  of  vehicles  in 
particular,  which  could  encourage  the  uptake  of  cleaner  solutions,  lacks 
harmonisation in relation to CO2.  

529. Other policy instruments (e.g. regulatory measures) aim more directly at reducing 
certain  externalities  (for  instance,  standards  define  the  acceptable  limits  of 
pollutant emissions emitted by a new vehicle). Such measures are very effective in 
addressing  specific  market  failures  such  as  the  principal  agent  problem  or 
consumer  myopia.  Appropriate  pricing  measures,  such  as  cap  &  trade  GHG 
emission  trading  system,  can  be  complementary  to  such  regulatory  instruments: 
they specifically correct market failures by internalising external costs and thereby 
enable  market  forces  to  find  the  economically  most  advantageous  solution  to 
deliver  the  desired  policy  outcome  (e.g.  reduction  of  GHG  emissions)  and 
incentivise people to opt for the most advantageous choice.  

530.  Several  pricing  instruments  already  exist  in  EU  legislation  but,  on  average,  they 
do  not  allow  full  cost  coverage.  Furthermore,  they  are  not  differentiated  enough 
according to the level of external and infrastructure costs.  

531. Marginal social cost pricing is  considered – from a theoretical economic point of 
view – as a first-best approach. It is defined as a situation where transport users are 
charged with  a levy equal  to  marginal  external  (and infrastructure) costs, thereby 
excluding fixed infrastructure costs. It is also in line with the framework set in the 
2011  White  Paper  for  Transport  for  smart  pricing  and  taxation  for  transport. 
However,  implementing  internalisation  measures  in  line  with  such  principle  is 

Also  the  Commission  Communication  of  2016  on  ‘A  European  Strategy  for  Low-Emission  Mobility’  emphasized  the  need  for 
further action in applying the ‘polluter pays’ and ‘user pays’ principles 
More recently, in its “in-depth analysis in support of the commission communication COM(2018) 773” concerning the climate long-
term strategy, the lack of internalisation is mentioned as one of the problems hindering the uptake of green technologies 
350 This implies excluding the fixed infrastructure costs from the analyses. It recognises that fixed infrastructure costs are sunk costs 
and that paying for these costs may result in (further) underutilisation of existing infrastructure (e.g. rail).  
351  “Sustainable  Transport  Infrastructure  Charging  and  Internalisation  of  Transport  Externalities”,  CE  DELFT,  2019 
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/sustainable-transport/internalisation-transport-external-costs_en 
352 Within each mode there may be specific segments where the cost coverage is higher than in other segments. For high speed trains 
for  example,  the  current  taxes  and  charges  do  cover  all  external  and  variable  infrastructure  costs,  but  not  fixed  costs  of 
infrastructure.  
353  COM(2011)  169  final  Proposal  for  a  COUNCIL  DIRECTIVE  amending  Directive  2003/96/EC  restructuring  the  Community 
framework for the taxation of energy products and electricity 
354  Member  States  that  adopted,  under  their  national  legislation,  CO2  taxes  that  are  linked  to  fuel  volumes  have  to  respect  the 
provisions under Articles 1(2) of Directive 2008/118 and 4(2) of Directive 2003/96. 

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technically challenging, as the level of costs can change very quickly: the external 
cost  of  congestion  varies  depending  on  the  actual  level  of  congestion.  Transport 
users  could  find  it  difficult  to  understand  or  take  into  account  continuously 
fluctuating cost. For these reasons, a certain degree of simplification is inevitable. 
A  few  examples  of  existing  instruments  are  provided  below,  covering  different 
modes. 

532. The  Energy  Taxation  Directive  provides  a  framework  for  taxing  motor  fuels, 
heating  fuels  and  electricity.  Currently 
it  essentially  follows  however  a 
predominantly fiscal logic, meaning that the system of taxation often has no link to 
the actual damage caused by the fuel, for instance in terms of carbon emissions. In 
addition,  the  minimum  rates  of  taxation  of  the  same  fuel  are  very  different 
depending  on  whether  it  is  burnt  in  a  heater/boiler  or  in  an  engine.  Differing 
conditions  in  Member  States  may  also  hamper  the  development  of  an  internal 
market of sustainable alternative fuels at sufficient scale.  

533. The  ETD  has  provided  for  mandatory  exemptions  to  fuels  used  in  international 
aviation  and  maritime  since  2003355.  As  acknowledged  in  Recital  8  of  the 
Directive,  the  objective  of  the  mandatory  exemptions  was  to  respect  existing 
international  obligations  while  safeguarding  the  competitiveness  of  European 
industry  vis-à-vis  third  countries.  However,  as  stated  in  a  recent  Commission 
evaluation of the Energy Tax Directive, the presence of sector-specific energy tax 
exemptions or reductions such as in the aviation and maritime sectors, may weaken 
the  incentives  for  investing  in  more  energy-efficient  capital  stock  and  production 
processes  in  these  sectors  and  may  affect  the  level  playing  field  with  other 
transport modes. 

534. In its conclusions of 5 December 2019, the Council has invited the Commission to 
analyse  and  evaluate  possible  options  with  a  view  to  publishing  in  due  course  a 
proposal  for  the  revision  of  the  Energy  Taxation  Directive.  In  particular,  the 
Council  calls  on  the  Commission  to  update  provisions  in  the  future  proposal  in 
order to ensure that they are practicable and provide greater certainty and clarity in 
its  implementation,  taking  notably  into  consideration  relevant  sectors,  such  as 
aviation,  considering  their  specificities  and  existing  exemptions  and  international 
dimension. 

535. These  considerations  include  the  risk  of  carbon  leakage  (e.g.  vessels  can  take 
advantage of fuelling outside EU jurisdiction; intercontinental air traffic can bypass 
the  EU  and  connect  at  non-EU  hubs,  and  short-haul  flying  can  be  replaced  by 
driving)  which  can  additionally  affect  the  competitive  position  of  EU  companies 
and  have  negative  unintended  consequences  contradicting  the  EU  climate 
objectives.  A  recent  paper  of  Eurocontrol  for  the  ECAC  airspace356  shows  that 
16.5%  of  flights  are  able  to  perform  full  fuel  tankering357  and  4.5%  partial  fuel 
tankering with additional negative impacts on CO2 emissions, because of carrying 
more fuel than necessary358.  

355 According to Article 14 of the ETD, Member States must exempt from taxation energy products supplied for use as fuel for the 
purpose  of  air  navigation  other  than  in  private  pleasure-flying  and  energy  products  supplied  for  use  as  fuel  for  the  purposes  of 
navigation  within  Union  waters  (including  fishing),  other  than  private  pleasure  craft,  and  electricity  produced  on  board  a  craft. 
Member States may limit the scope of the exemptions to international and intra-EU transport. In addition, where a Member State has 
entered into a bilateral agreement with another Member State, it may also waive the exemptions, in which case it may apply a level 
of taxation below the minimum level set out in the ETD. 
356 Composed of 44 countries, including the EU Member States.  
357 Fuel tankering is a practice whereby an aircraft carries more fuel than required for its flight in order to reduce or avoid refuelling 
at the destination airport. 
358 Source: https://www.eurocontrol.int/publication/fuel-tankering-european-skies-economic-benefits-and-environmental-impact 

133 

 
                                                      
536. For waterborne transport the high capacity of tanks provides even more flexibility 
in  fuelling  outside  EU  jurisdiction  (with  a  particularly  high  risk  for  diverting  the 
short sea shipping routes to neighbouring third countries). For a deep sea shipping, 
according to a study by Ricardo359, on a single bunkering a Panamax bulk carrier 
can stay at sea for 56 days. Fuel suppliers could  also avoid incurring the duty on 
fuel  sold  by  setting  up  offshore  bunkering  facilities  (e.g.  beyond  a  12nm  zone). 
Past  experience  with  California’s  1991  decision  to  lift  the  fuel  tax  exemption 
shows that within a year Californian bunker sales had collapsed as ships bunkered 
elsewhere,  especially  in  Panama360.  Quantifying  the  above-described  risk  of 
fuelling outside EU jurisdiction and the consequences thereof from the perspective 
of  revenue  generation,  negative  impacts  on  emissions  and  competition  would 
require future in-depth analysis.  

Figure 36 Minimum rates of taxation laid down in the ETD (1 Jan 2010) 361 

Source: European Commission. 

359 Source : https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/transport/shipping/docs/ghg_maritime_report_en.pdf 
360 Source : https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/transport/shipping/docs/ghg_maritime_report_en.pdf 
361SEC(2011)  409  final  Impact  Assessment  for  Proposal  for  a  COUNCIL  DIRECTIVE  amending  Directive  2003/96/EC 
restructuring  the  Community  framework  for  the  taxation  of  energy  products  and  electricity,  Table  1  https://ec.europa.eu/smart-
regulation/impact/ia_carried_out/docs/ia_2011/sec_2011_0409_en.pdf 

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537. Revenues from fuel and electricity taxation amount to more than EUR 200 billion 
per year362 which corresponds to about 1.6 % of the EU-27 GDP and to about half 
the total revenues of road, rail and inland waterways. 

538. Today, the revenues from transport taxes and charges are only partly earmarked for 
expenditure  for  transport  infrastructure  and  significant  differences  exist  between 
modes.  Earmarking  of  revenues  may  be  used  to  gain  public  support  for  future 
initiatives  to  increase  the  extent  of  internalisation  of  external  and  infrastructure 
costs of transport. On the contrary, if no alternative mobility options are provided, 
increasing the taxes or charges on a specific mode might be perceived as a measure 
aiming simply at increasing tax revenues and its impact on greening the transport 
sector might be limited to a reduction in demand. 

Other Market-Based Measures 

539. Intra-EU  aviation  has  been  included  in  the  EU  Emission  Trading  Scheme  (ETS) 
since  2012  and  electrified  forms  of  transport  (e.g.  rail,  electrified  cars  etc.)  are 
indirectly  included,  as  power  generation  is  covered  by  the  ETS.  The  purchase  of 
allowances  by  aircraft  operators  under  the  EU  Emissions  Trading  System  (ETS) 
resulted in a net reduction of 27 million tonnes of CO2 emissions for the year 2017, 
reaching over 100 million tonnes over five years.363 

540. The application of the EU ETS is currently suspended in relation to flights to and 
from countries outside the European Economic Area to allow for the development 
of  an  international  instrument  in  the  International  Civil  Aviation  Organization 
(ICAO). All European States will join the pilot phase of the new Carbon Offsetting 
and  Reduction  Scheme  for  International  Aviation  as  of  2021,  with  the  aim  of 
offsetting emissions above 2020 levels, without prejudice to the upcoming revision 
of the EU ETS Directive as regards aviation. This international scheme will require 
airlines  flying  between  participating  countries  to  offset  all  emissions  beyond 
2019/2020 levels.  

541. In the 2030 Climate Target Plan364 it was stated that the Commission will propose 
to  reduce  the  free  allocation  of  allowances,  increasing  the  effectiveness  of  the 
carbon price signal in this sector, while taking into account other policy measures 
such as revised energy taxation and the ReFuelEU initiatives. 

542. As regards maritime transport, the European Green Deal puts forward a basket of 
measures addressing, among other things, energy efficiency improvements and the 
uptake of alternative fuels. The introduction of correct pricing signals through the 
extension of the ETS is an important part of this basket of measures. The European 
Green Deal also recalls that European measures should be coordinated with action 
at global level, notably with the IMO.  In the light of progress at  global level, the 
Commission  will  give  fresh  political  consideration  to  the  international  aspects  of 
the  EU  ETS,  taxation  and  fuel  policies  for  maritime  to  ensure  the  gradual 
decarbonisation of all fuel use from transport relating to the EU with the ambition 
to  include  international  emissions  from  navigation  into  the  EU  ETS.  The 
Commission  is  currently  carrying  out  a  preparatory  work  to  assess  the  impact  of 
extending an EU ETS to maritime transport.   

362 Including VAT, almost entirely coming from road users. Excluding VAT revenues amount to about EUR 170 billion. Source: CE 
Delft, 2019: Transport taxes and charges in Europe 
363  European  Environment  Agency,  European  Union  Aviation  Safety  Agency,  Eurocontrol  (2019):  ‘European  Aviation 
Environmental Report 2019’. https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/2019-aviation-environmental-report.pdf  
364 COM(2020) 562 final 

135 

 
 
                                                      
543. It  is  also  worth  noticing  that  the  IMO  identified  a  similar  basket  of  candidate 
measures at global level, showing that all countries and the industry have aligned 
on  the  need  for  actions  on  different  fronts.  While  short-term  measures  should  be 
finalised and agreed by 2023, mid- and long-term measures are only expected after 
2023. However, discussions on market-based measures are expected to start in the 
course  of  2021  in  conjunction  with  the  industry  proposal  on  a  fuel  levy  to  fund 
research activities at global level. Past discussions included a fuel levy and an ETS, 
though  these  were  temporarily  put  aside  by  an  agreement  on  mandatory  energy 
efficiency standards for new built ships - to date the only legally binding standards 
that apply to an entire global industry and to all countries.  

544. Road transport is subject to several different measures having the same objective 
of reducing CO2 emissions and other external costs, including CO2 standards, fuel 
and vehicle taxes and road charges.  In terms of available alternative technologies 
to replace fossil fuels, private cars, urban and short distance delivery light lorries 
and  heavy  long  distance  road  haulage  are  clearly  distinct.  Inclusion  of  road 
transport  in  the  EU  ETS  could  give  the  sector  a  clear  signal  and  capture  fleet 
emissions  under  a  cap.  Especially  with  increasing  electrification,  a  case  could  be 
made to treat all vehicles alike. A measure to this effect may be combined with the 
other existing measures such as CO2 standards and road charging. 

Taxation of vehicles     

545. When it comes to low- and zero-emission vehicles an important factor to be taken 
into account is their still rather high initial purchase costs. While the total cost of 
ownership (TCO) is often competitive with conventional vehicles – and incentives 
such as reduced annual circulation tax can further increase their attractiveness – the 
fact  remains  that  for  many  consumers  the  initial  purchase  costs  can  represent  an 
important  obstacle  and  many  fail  to  make  purchases  on  the  basis  of  TCO.  The 
evolution of the battery prices, which reduced dramatically over the last years, and 
which  are  projected  to  continue  decreasing  significantly,  will  have  a  positive 
impact on the affordability of vehicles. In addition, there are  two key areas where 
steps could be taken by Member States to send a clear market signal in favour of 
low- and zero-emission vehicles: 

  Vehicle  purchase/registration 

rates 

reduced 

taxes  and  VAT: 

for 
purchase/registration  taxes  for  zero-emission  vehicles  would  provide  an 
important  stimulus  to their faster deployment, by  reducing their steep initial 
purchase  cost  and  making 
the 
fragmentation  of  the  Single  Market  for  the  automotive  industry  (see  figure 
below).  This  would  ideally  be  accompanied  by  a  modulation  of  the 
corresponding  taxation  of  other  vehicles  based  on  CO2  and  air  pollutant 
emissions  per  km.  This  should  also  be  accompanied  by  the  adoption  of  the 
Commission  proposal  on  VAT  rates,  which  would  allow  Member  States  to 
lower VAT on zero-emission cars. 

them  more  competitive;  overcoming 

  Circulation/ownership  tax:  a  similar  approach  could  be  followed  for  the 
circulation / ownership tax. On the one hand, this would not directly reduce 
the  initial  purchase  cost;  however,  the  amount  of  the  yearly  tax  to  be  paid 
allows  for  a  clear  assessment  and  can  be  an  important  element  influencing 
buyers’ decisions when choosing a new vehicle 

136 

 
Figure 37 Purchase taxes in the EU in 2016 

Source: CE Delft365 

546. The  fiscal  treatment  of  company  cars  would  be  another  possible  area  of 
intervention:  the  preferential  tax  treatment  of  company  cars  applied  in  some 
Member  States  weakens  efforts  to  internalise  external  costs  and  decarbonise 
mobility, by  effectively  promoting the daily use  and purchase of larger and more 
polluting  vehicles,  especially  when  combined  with  other  incentives,  such  as  free 
parking at the workplace. If preferential treatment were at least to be accorded on 
the  basis  of  the  vehicle’s  environmental  performance,  it  could  instead  provide  a 

365 CE Delft, 2019: Transport taxes and charges in Europe 
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/studies/transport-taxes-and-charges-in-europe-isbn-978-92-79-99561-3.pdf 

137 

 
 
                                                      
clear  market  signal  and  accelerate  market  take-up  of  low-  and  zero-emission 
vehicles. 

547. According to the Commission proposal for a Council Directive amending Directive 
2006/112/EC as regards rates of value added tax366, Member States would in future 
be allowed to apply a maximum of two reduced rates of a minimum of 5%. This 
possibility is subject to a few conditions, notably to make sure that no distortions 
of  competition  within  the  Single  Market  arise.  A  list  of  goods  and  services  to 
which  reduced  rates  may  not  be  applied  is  annexed  to  the  proposal.  It  leaves 
Member  States  the  possibility  to  reduce  VAT  to  be  paid  on  the  supply  of 
environmentally-friendly  vehicles  such  as  electric  cars,  if  and  when  the  proposal 
will be adopted. 

548. Transport services, like any other service supplied by a taxable person within the 
EU, are subject to VAT. Historically however, Member States considered applying 
VAT  to  international  air  and  maritime  transport  administratively  too  complicated 
and costly. This is why for international passenger transport, sea and air are exempt 
of VAT in  the  whole of the EU-27. At the same time, this VAT treatment  is  not 
given to competing modes, such as in particular rail in some Member States. The 
recent Tax Action Plan367 has however announced a proposal by 2022 where this 
exemption will be re-examined with a view to VAT treatment on an equal footing 
between transport modes and an alignment with the objectives of the Green Deal. 

Infrastructure charging 

549. For  road 

infrastructure,  Directive  1999/62/EC 

(Eurovignette  Directive) 
prescribes  the  principle  for  charging  heavy  goods  vehicles.  The  Commission 
adopted  a  legislative  proposal  to  amend  it  in  May  2017,  in  order  to  extend  the 
scope of the Directive to buses/coaches, cars and vans, to introduce differentiation 
of  tolls  and  user  charges  per  criterion  such  as  noise,  air  pollutants  and  CO2 
emissions  of  the  vehicle,  and  to  gradually  move  away  from  time-based  user 
charging (vignettes) to distance-based pricing.  

550. While  the  European  Parliament  adopted  an  ambitious  position  in  October  2018, 
including  effectively  replacing  time-based  vignettes  with  distance-based  tolls, 
Member States are not yet ready to agree on strong road pricing measures for cars. 
Other  elements  of  the  text  (e.g.  the  requirement  to  vary  tolls  based  on  CO2  for 
lorries  or  the  possibility  to  apply  external  CO2  charges  or  a  congestion  charge) 
would  still  contribute  to  the  objective  of  the  decarbonisation  of  transport.  In 
addition,  in  2019  the  EETS  Directive  on  interoperable  electronic  tolling  was 
adopted,  which  will,  inter  alia,  help  the  national  authorities  to  recover  unpaid 
charges. Indeed, smart, distance-based road charging, with varied rates for the type 
of  vehicle  and  the  time-of-use,  is  an  effective  tool  to  incentivise  sustainable  and 
economically efficient choices, manage traffic and reduce congestion.  

551. In line with the user pays – polluter pays principle, for rail, infrastructure charging 
could play a much more supportive role towards the policy objectives. This would 
require both a better application and a rethinking of the applicable rules: 

552. The  charges  for  rail  infrastructure  are  set  under  the  provisions  of  Directive 
2012/34/EU.368 369 The Directive foresees two basic components of a charge: direct 

366 COM(2018) 20 final. 
367 COM(2020) 312 final 
368  Directive  2012/34/EU  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  21  November  2012  establishing  a  single  European 
railway area (recast), OJ L343, 14.12.2012, p. 32. 

138 

 
                                                      
costs, which railway undertaking always have to pay, and mark-ups.  Direct  costs 
cover the costs directly incurred by the train run (but not costs related to the initial 
construction  of  the  infrastructure).  Mark-ups  are  foreseen  as  an  exception  to  the 
basic  charging  principle  of  direct  costs  and  can  be  levied  only  if  the  market  can 
bear  them.  They  cover  additional  costs  of  the  infrastructure  manager  that  are  not 
covered by State subsidies. 

553. Mark-ups increase the price of rail services. In some market segments (in particular 
high-speed rail), the cost burden on rail services (levied through taxes and charges) 
is  currently  significantly  higher  than  their  marginal  infrastructure  usage  (direct 
costs)  and  external  costs.370  According  to  the  Directive,  direct  cost  charging 
represents the general principle, mark-ups are applied only if the market can bear 
them.  However,  where  infrastructure  manager’s  limit  charges  to  direct  cost,  this 
helps  strengthen the  competitiveness  of  rail services compared to  other modes of 
transport. Particularly long-distance passenger services are currently often subject 
to high mark-ups. The current track access charge regime also raises questions as 
regards  rail’s  competitiveness  versus  aviation  over  longer  distances.  Since  track 
access charges are charged per train/km or track/km, rail charges increase linearly 
with distance.  

554. A further aspect is that delays in the rail system ought to be paid for by those who 
to  reward 
cause 
them.  Directive  2012/34  foresees  performance  schemes 
punctuality.  However,  in  practice,  a  large  number  of  Member  States  have  so  far 
failed to introduce such a system, probably in part because they have struggled to 
design  a  system  that  is  at  the  same  time  effective  but  not  too  complex.  Better 
compliance, if necessary on the basis of further EU guidance, would be necessary 
to enhance the overall punctuality of the rail system.         

555. Track  access  charges  can  be  modulated  to  set  incentives  for  the  use  of  specific 
technologies  or  vehicles,  for  example  by  reflecting  environmental  costs  in  the 
charges,  such  as  noise  (Art.31  (5)  or  by  incentivising  equipping  trains  with 
ERTMS  (Art.  32(4)).  Member  States  can  already  introduce  noise  differentiated 
track access charges, but there is currently no obligation to have such a scheme in 
place  and  only  a  few  countries  have  done  so.  Further  analysis  would  also  be 
required  to  see  whether  charging  could  be  used  to  better  incentivise  energy 
efficiency and the installation of ERTMS.      

556. As  regards  airport  charges,  the  EU  has  introduced  legislation  (Directive 
2009/12/EC)  to  ensure  that  certain  minimum  criteria  are  fulfilled  with  regard  to 
setting  of  airport  charges.  Notably,  such  charges  must  be  transparent,  must  be 
established through a dedicated process involving the participation of airport users, 
they must be non-discriminatory and an independent supervisory authority must be 
empowered  to  review  compliance  with  the  Directive.  The  Directive  does  not 
provide for any actual (including minimum or maximum) levels of airport charges. 
Concerning  ports,  a  study  published  in  June  2017  identified  around  30  ports  in 
Europe  that  apply  differentiated  charges  (in  the  form  of  rebates)  for  vessels  that 
have a better environmental performance than legally required371.  

369 In addition, two specific implementing acts clarify the modalities for the calculation of the cost that is directly incurred as a result 
of operating the train service and for the application of the charging for the cost of noise effects. References. 
370 Sustainable Transport Infrastructure Charging and Internalisation of Transport Externalities: Main Findings, May 2019, Table 5, 
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/studies/internalisation-study-summary-isbn_978-92-76-03076-8.pdf 
371 COGEA for the European Commission: “Study on differentiated port infrastructure charges to promote environmentally friendly 
maritime transport activities and sustainable transportation”, June 2017:  https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/2017-06-
differentiated-port-infrastructure-charges-report.pdf. 

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4.1.5.2  Better information to users 

557. In line with the EU priority to move towards a green and carbon-neutral economy, 
more focus is needed for motivating on the one hand the offer of more sustainable 
services  or  operations  and  on  the  other  hand  the  consumers  to  improve  the 
sustainability  of  their  transport  choices.  Consumers  and  businesses  lack  the  right 
information that could help making their mobility and transport more sustainable. 
It is important to leverage the increasing interest of consumers for greener choices 
and  to  remove  the  many  barriers  they  still  face.  Information  on  environmental 
performance  of  transport  services  should  become  easily  available  and  be 
trustworthy, advertised green benefits should not be misleading. 

558. However,  no  specific  and  universally  accepted  framework  for  calculating  and 
reporting CO2 emissions from transport services exists. The availability of various 
methodologies,  initiatives  and  calculation  tools  limits  the  potential  to  reliably 
measure, compare and benchmark various transport services, as well as to develop 
relevant  transparency  and  information  tools,  such  as  eco-label  programs  and 
scoreboards in line with the principles of the ‘sunshine regulation’. The European 
CEN  standard  EN  16258,  published  in  2013,  is  the  only  standard  specifically 
focused on carbon footprint measurement of transport services. However, since it 
leaves  room  for  interpretation  it  does  not  guarantee  a  fully  harmonised 
implementation and thereby comparability. The lack of a harmonised classification 
framework makes it also difficult to reward the best performance and pioneers of 
innovative technologies.  

559. The study and stakeholder consultation undertaken by the Commission in 2014 on 
the standardised carbon footprint methodology for transport services372, recognised 
a clear need for a common methodological framework for carbon footprinting both 
at  the  EU  and  international  scale.  Further,  the  Commission  co-financed  between 
2011 and 2019 two consecutive RTD projects addressing the calculation, reporting 
and  verification  of  logistics  emissions.  The  projects  addressed  the  methodology 
development, verification and certification of the calculations/method and labelling 
to  reward  business.  They  also  looked  at  the  issues  of  the  data  quality,  collection 
and  exchange.  The  projects  were  closely  interlinked  with  the  work  of  the  Global 
Logistics  Emissions  Council  (GLEC),  a  platform  for 
initiatives, 
associations and multinationals that developed the ‘GLEC framework for Logistics 
Emissions  Methodologies’.  The  RTD  projects  in  cooperation  with  GLEC 
supported the process which leads to the establishment of    a specific ISO working 
group in  2019 working  on a  global standard  for transport  and logistics  emissions 
calculation  The  envisaged  revision  of  the  abovementioned  CEN  16258  standard 
will piggyback the ISO process. 

industry 

560. The  Commission  is  considering  to  launch  an  initiative  to  develop  a  harmonised 
framework  to  establish  a  fair  benchmarking  tool  to  companies  and  customers 
wishing  to  procure  more  sustainable  services.  Such  a  system,  taking  into 
consideration  the  existing  EU  frameworks373,preferably  aligned  at  global  scale, 
would also facilitate the development of complementary measures and tools, such 
as GHG certification schemes, eco-labelling, green procurements, creating further 
opportunities  towards  emission  reduction.  Logistics  operators  should  be  able  to 

372  https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/themes/strategies/studies/doc/2014-12-introduction-of-a-standardised-carbon-
footprint-methodology.pdf 
373  Such 

Environmental 

Environmental 

Organisation 

Footprint 

Footprint 

Product 

and 

rules, 

as 

https://ec.europa.eu/environment/eussd/smgp/ 

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compare  and  benchmark  various  transport  and  logistics  services  and  to  provide 
reliable  information  to  clients  on  environmental  impact  of  their  orders.  Shippers 
could include carbon efficiency as a criterion in their transport decisions. All this 
creating  opportunities  towards  innovative  solutions,  cutting  costs  and  further 
emission reduction. 

561. After  the  sharp  increase  in  e-commerce  during  the  COVID-19  pandemic,  it 
becomes  even  more  important  to  provide  information  to  clients  on  the  transport-
related  environmental impact  of their orders and provide transport choices at,  for 
example,  longer  delivery  times  but  lower  emission  levels. As  the  results  of  the 
recent Eurobarometer survey showed374, among respondents who buy goods online 
or  by  phone,  six  in  ten  (59%)  would  pick  up  a  delivery  themselves  at  a  pick-up 
point, while 42% would wait longer for the delivery if it was done by a green mode 
of transport. 

562. Information  about  environmental  (including  carbon)  footprint  of  each  transport 
mode  could  be  integrated  into  travel  information  systems,  indicating  also  the 
monetised  impact,  to  inform  consumers  and  raise  their  awareness;  in  the  second 
step, the footprint could  be included in  the ticketing/pricing systems.  The current 
delegated  regulation  2017/1926  on  EU-wide  multimodal  travel  information 
services contains some relevant elements.  

563. Examples  of  emission  reduction  effects  supported  by  carbon  accounting,  can  be 
provided  from  the  perspective  of  sector  specific  carbon  reduction  schemes  and 
individual companies. As regards the sector specific schemes, Logistics Emissions 
Reduction Scheme (LERS) and Smartway program can be mentioned in particular. 
LERS is a UK-based green freight benchmarking program, reporting that in 2018 
its members achieved a 4% reduction in their CO2 emissions, while LERS member 
emissions  are  in  general  close  to  13%  lower  per  vehicle  km  than  the  industry 
average.  

564. The U.S. Smartway program, benchmarking the efficiency of transport operations 
and  run  as  a  public-private  partnership,  has  attracted  since  2004  over  3,700 
partners,  who  saved  together  280  million  barrels  of  oil  and  prevented  from  the 
emission of 134 million tonnes of air pollutants. Also individual companies see the 
benefits of accounting carbon footprint of transport and logistics services375.  

565. Navigation  solutions,  are  now  ubiquitous:  they  come  in-built  in  vehicles,  can  be 
attached to the vehicles in form of dedicated devices or can be simply downloaded 
to smartphones. These solutions guide millions of drivers everyday on their trips, 
all around the world, showing them the fastest way to get to their destination. 

566. However, all too often the fastest way is not the ‘best’ way to get to the destination 
if the algorithm took into account other important factors such as fuel consumption 
and  related  environmental  impacts.  Eco-routing  navigation  solutions  can  help 

374 Special Eurobarometer 495. 
https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/survey/getsurveydetail/instruments/special/surveyky/2226 
375 OIA Global is a non-asset-based supply chain provider managing customer’s transportation, packaging design and optimization, 
and raw materials sourcing. OIA Global calculates and reports its own and also customers emissions by using a standardised CO2 
accounting  method.  As  a  supply  chain  provider  with  packaging  optimization  expertise,  OIA  Global  optimized  the  space  used  to 
transport  shoes  for  a  global  footwear  retailer.  In  2016,  this  retailer  was  able  to  ship  48%  more  units  per  m3,  resulting  in  $1.24 
million reduced transport costs and 43% lower CO2 emissions, or 152 grams per pair of shoes.  
FM Logistic is a family-owned independent logistics company, which also uses methodology to calculate carbon footprint from its 
activities. FM Logistics set the interim targets for 2022, including 20% reduction of the warehousing carbon footprint compared to 
2018.  
LENOVO,  one  of  the  global  technology  leaders,  supports  a  2050  reduction  target  of  40-70%  for  transport  and  transhipment 
emissions  compared  to  2018/19.  Subcontracting  reduction  targets,  pending  final  approval,  are  25%  CO2e  per  tonne-km  of 
transported product by 2029/30 from a 2018/19 baseline. 

141 

 
                                                      
addressing this problem as they enables users to reduce their fuel consumption and 
CO2 and air pollutant emissions at the route choice level376 and therefore their use 
should be promoted. 

567. In  addition  to  precise  information  on  the  impact  of  individual  trips,  experience 
from other industries and EU policies, notably the EU Ecolabel and the EU Energy 
label,  demonstrated  that  labels377    can  be  effective  tools  for  communicating 
environmental performance and preventing proliferation of green claims.  

568. For  example,  tyre  energy  labels378  provide  a  clear  and  common  classification  of 
tyres  performance  for rolling  resistance,  braking  on  wet  surfaces  and  external 
noise379. The labels help consumers make informed decisions when they are buying 
tyres as they can easily set their priority choice based on the 3 parameters.  

569. The  Car  Labelling  Directive  (Directive  1999/94/EC)  aims  to  raise  consumer 
awareness on fuel use and CO2 emissions of new passenger cars in order to support 
the purchase or lease of fuel-efficient cars. A label  should be attached to  all new 
cars  or  displayed  nearby  the  point  of  sale  showing  fuel  economy  and  CO2 
emissions.  Moreover,  at  or  through  the  point  of  sale  further  information  on  fuel 
consumption  and  CO2  emissions  of  all  new  car  models  should  be  available 
(posters, printed guide and promotional material).  

570. The  Commission  evaluated  Directive  1999/94/EC  in  2016.  It  showed  that 
consumer  awareness  about  CO2  emissions  and  fuel  economy  has  risen  steadily 
since  the  implementation  of  the  Directive.  A  number  of  Member  States  have  set 
further  mandatory  or  voluntary  requirements  regarding  information  tools.  While 
the relevance of the Directive remains, the Directive also underlined the need and 
benefits  for  further  clarification  and  simplification.  Those  include  the  need  to 
address  differences  in  label  design  in  Member  States  following  the  absence  of  a 
common methodology, the lack of provisions on alternative fuelled vehicles or the 
lack of provisions concerning of air pollutant emissions, among other. Information 
on fuel consumption and emissions would also need to be adapted to the provisions 
of  the  Worldwide  harmonized  Light  vehicles  Test  Procedure  (WLTP)  test  cycle. 
The  Commission  issued  a  recommendation380  to  Member  States  in  2017,  asking 
them  to  ensure  that  WLTP  information  would  be  incorporated  into  the  national 
labels.  

571. In order to address the problem of diverging CO2 emissions and fuel consumption 
values  between  what  is  communicated  through  the  registration  certificates  and 
what the users actually experience in reality, and in order to strengthen consumer 
awareness,  the  Commission  adopted  the  new  Worldwide  harmonized  Light 

376 A recent study noted that “An investigation conducted in Sweden (Ericsson et al., 2006) found that 46% of trips based on the 
spontaneous route choice of the traveller were not the most eco-friendly. Fuel consumption on such trips could be reduced by 8.2% 
if the most eco-friendly route was chosen. Similarly, Ahn and Rakha (2013) reported that fuel savings over networks range between 
3.3% and 9.3% when compared to typical travel time minimization routing strategies. 
Zeng et al. 2020. Eco-routing problem considering fuel consumption and probabilistic travel time budget, Transportation Research 
Part D: Transport and Environment, Volume 78, January 2020, 102219 
377 As part of the informal agreement with the European Year of Rail 2021 , the Commission is asked to consider launching a study 
on the feasibility of creating a European label to promote goods and products transported by rail.  
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/11/12/european-year-of-rail-2021-informal-agreement-with-the-
european-parliament/ 
378  Regulation  (EC)  No  1222/2009  first  introduced  the  obligation  of  placing  car  and  van  tyres  on  the  EU  market  with  a  sticker 
showing the label. That regulation has been reviewed and will be replaced by Regulation (EU) 2020/740 from 1 May 2021 onwards, 
when new requirements will start applying. Under the new regulation, bus and truck tyres will also be covered. 
379 In 2016, the European tyre industry committed to further reduce the rolling resistance coefficient of truck tyres by 1% per year 
until 2030. Source: ETRma 
380 C(2017) 3525 final  

142 

 
                                                      
vehicles  Test  Procedure  (WLTP)381  and  has  introduced  mandatory  monitoring  of 
the  discrepancy  between  real  world  fuel  consumption  and  the  certified  values 
through  accurate382  on-board  fuel  consumption  monitoring  systems.  A  series  of 
tools  that  provide  indicative  vehicle  in-use  information  to  consumers  have  also 
been funded by European projects. 

572. The  European  Union  Aviation  Safety  Agency  has  also  started  a  demonstration 
project  for  the  feasibility  of  developing  an  environmental  label  for  aviation  that 
could  potentially  capture  the  environmental  performances,  notably  of  aircraft, 
airlines, flights and airports. This would need to be in line with the methodologies 
and  policy  objectives  of  the  Green  Claim  initiative,  announced  by  the  Circular 
Economy  Action  Plan  in  March  2020,  to  be  adopted  in  2021.  Such  labelling, 
should the Commission decide to take it forward, would require a holistic approach 
and  would  need  to  take  into  account  the  existing  methodologies  and  policy 
objectives.  

573. Furthermore,  awareness  raising  is  an  area  where  the  European  Commission  has 
invested for years. Earlier this year, the Commission has proposed to declare 2021 
the  European  Year  of  Rail,  in  order  to  promote  rail  as  a  sustainable  form  of 
transport.  The  European  Mobility  Week383  is  of  particular  relevance.  It  is  the 
Commission’s leading awareness-raising campaign promoting behavioural change 
in  favour  of  sustainable  transport  modes.  It  takes  place  from  16-22  September 
every year and culminates in the well-known Car-free Day.  

574.  By  taking  part,  towns  and  cities  can  showcase  the  benefits  of  cleaner  transport 
choices and make progress towards better mobility in Europe. Local authorities are 
strongly  encouraged  to  use  European  Mobility  Week  to  measure  air  quality,  test 
new pedestrian areas and transport measures and get feedback from the public. At 
the  same  time,  organisations,  businesses,  schools  etc.  can  register  their  Mobility 
Action to become a part of the EMW campaign and to show what they are doing to 
promote  sustainable  mobility.  In  2019  there  was  a  record-breaking  participation, 
with  over  3,100  cities  registered  from  50  countries  as  well  as  1028  ‘mobility 
actions’  in  56  countries.  However,  it  is  highly  variable  used  –  three  countries 
(Austria,  Spain  and  Turkey)  each  have  participation  from  more  than  500  cities, 
while  the  European  Mobility  Week’s  footprint  is  much  slighter  elsewhere, 
suggesting there is potential to develop this tool further. Finally, each year we give 
EMW  awards  to  reward  local  authorities  judged  to  have  implemented  the  best 
European Mobility Week in line with the annual theme. 

575. Working  with  employers  and  their  internal  mobility  offer  to  their  employees,  as 
well as with schools and universities and their pupils/students can also be a way to 
influence  the  behavioural  change.  Lasting  change  in  behaviour  is  key  when  it 
comes  to  shifting  to  sustainable  mobility,  and  proposing  a  good  offer  and 
incentives  –  combining  economic  and  social  aspects  –  by  employers/schools  etc. 
can be a powerful tool in that regard384.  

381Fontaras,  G.,  Ciuffo,  B.,  Zacharof,  N.,  Tsiakmakis,  S.,  Marotta,  A.,  Pavlovic,  J.,  Anagnostopoulos,  K.,  2017.  The  difference 
between reported and real-world CO2 emissions: How much improvement can be expected by WLTP introduction? Transportation 
Research  Procedia,  World  Conference  on  Transport  Research  -  WCTR  2016  Shanghai.  10-15  July  2016  25,  3933–3943. 
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2017.05.333  
382 Pavlovic J, Fontaras G, Broekaert S, Ciuffo B, Ktistakis M, Grigoratos T (2020) How accurately can we measure vehicle fuel 
consumption in real world operation? Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment., 2021.  
383 https://mobilityweek.eu 
384 The following examples of registered Mobility Actions can be invoked in this context:  
Decathlon is organising a commuting competition among all staff in the country (around 11,000 people) with the aim of boosting 
sustainable mobility by collecting "sustainable kilometres”.   https://mobilityweek.eu/registered-actions/?action_uid=TqYZQxSf 

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4.2  The challenge of digitalisation and modernisation 

576. Digitalisation,  automation,  the  emergence  of  the  shared,  collaborative  economy 
and  platforms,  which  are  challenging  the  current  and  traditional  mobility  and 
transport  landscape,  will  be  key  for  building  a  smart,  green  and  resilient 
transportation system. New ICT technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), 
impact the way transport organisations operate. They pave the way for innovation, 
allow  new  services  and  business  models  to  enter  the  market  and  challenge  the 
incumbents.  Digitalisation  also  facilitates  novel  ways  of  collaboration  within  and 
beyond the sector, including between supply chain actors. At the same time users’ 
behaviour and expectations – both passengers and businesses – evolve rapidly with 
demands for more efficiency, less emissions and better performance of the whole 
transport system. This rapid transformation brings a number of opportunities. It can 
make  the  transport  system  more  connected,  multimodal  and  efficient  allowing  a 
better  organisation  and  execution  of  travel  and  transport  operations.  It  can  help 
make better use of infrastructure and resources as well as integrate different modes 
of  transport.  It  can  ultimately  make  mobility  safer  by  helping  reduce  safety  risks 
involving  human  error.  It  can  make  transport  and  mobility  more  inclusive  and 
cleaner,  by  for  instance  increasing  the  use  of  public,  collective  and  shared 
transport. Ultimately it can help to better serve both citizens and businesses.  

577. At the same time, however, it raises a number of challenges, from the ability of the 
sector  to  adapt  its  business  models  to  a  new  reality,  through  more  horizontal 
questions  of  data  availability  and  accessibility,  resilience  to  cyber-incidents,  the 
availability of the necessary infrastructure allowing for digitalisation, protection of 
personal data to the potential impact on jobs and required skillset.  

578. All transport modes have started to  embrace this disruptive change, although at a 
different  pace.  Reaping  the  full  benefits  of  digitalisation  and  automation  often 
requires  a  coordinated  change  across  the  network  and  simultaneously  on 
infrastructure and vehicles. However, underlying conditions allowing the transport 
sector to take full advantage of digitalisation to achieve sustainable, seamless, safe 
and smart mobility across the modes, as well as to minimise the risks, are not yet 
optimal  to  take  advantage  of  these  opportunities.  EU  support  to  research  and 
innovation  is  helping  to  seize  these  opportunities  and  mitigate  risks,  but  more 
needs to be done.  

4.2.1  Smart multimodal transport – challenges for seamless experience 

579. We are still far from a perfect smart and multimodal mobility experience across the 
European  Union,  in  which  solutions  are  interoperable  and  can  be  combined  and 

First self driving shuttle in Luxembourg, set-up to solve last mile problems between an office building and the train station among 
employees at Campus Contern, Luxembourg https://mobilityweek.eu/registered-actions/?action_uid=tKDkH0xg 
Navantia  is  implementing  an  annual  programme  of  incentives  together  with  Ciclogreen  to  encourage  its  employees  to  travel 
environmentally friendly to work on a daily basis; walking, biking, car sharing or using public transportation is rewarded with an 
incentive; https://mobilityweek.eu/registered-actions/?action_uid=mCRuJeWw 
The Regional Inspectorate of Environment and Water in Plovdiv (Bulgaria) organised a literary competition under the theme "Walk 
to the end of the city”, with participants submitting a piece of literature that explores the theme. 
https://mobilityweek.eu/action-in-the-spotlight/literature-competition/  
Scoala  Gimnazială  (City  of  Baia  Mare,  Romania)  organises  a  competition  for  its  students  who  will  ‘design  attractive  posters 
regarding the bike routes in the city, to be posted in central places frequented by a lot of people’ https://mobilityweek.eu/registered-
actions/?country=RO&action_uid=2T3XbT9P 

144 

 
 
                                                                                                                                                            
 
integrated  smoothly  along  a  single  travel  chain.  At  the  moment  travellers  are  not 
yet  able  to  plan,  book  and  enjoy  their  trips  across  Europe  with  the  same  ease  as 
they would do for a domestic journey. They often encounter disproportionate and 
discriminatory  registration  requirements  attached  to  the  use  of  many  types  of 
services– from public transport and rail through to electric vehicle charging and car 
rentals. 

4.2.1.1  Cross-border multimodal challenges 

580. A seamless cross-border multimodal transport environment is highly desirable but 
still  an  unmet  challenge.  From  a  passenger  perspective,  each  transport  mode 
currently  still  operates  in  a  mostly  isolated  system.  Planning  and  purchasing 
tickets/mobility services for multimodal journeys is often cumbersome, as we lack 
a conducive environment for EU-wide, multimodal information  and ticketing and 
purchase services.385 There are a number of barriers, including the availability and 
accessibility  of  data,  legal  and  commercial  barriers  ranging  from  the  lack  of 
cooperation between suppliers for payment system interoperability to the existence 
of different licence, insurance and distribution agreements.  

581. For rail, significant work has been undertaken to enable data exchanges - through 
legislation (Technical Specification for Interoperability of Telematics Applications 
for Freight/Passenger Services TAP/TAF TSI386 and recently the recast of the rail 
passenger  rights  Regulation387),  EU  funded  research  in  the  framework  of 
Shift2Rail and sector-driven initiatives (Full Service Model). Whilst the technical 
issues seem to have been largely overcome, it remains very difficult for passengers 
to  buy  cross-border  or  even  through-tickets  combining  in  a  journey  services  of 
several operators, or even to get an overview of the existing offer.  

582. In  fact,  rail  ticketing  is  currently  largely  in  the  hands  of  the  incumbent  railway 
undertakings,  who  sell  mainly  through  their  websites  and  at  times  stifle 
competition  by  refusing  to  sell  tickets  of  other  operators.  This  situation  is  all  the 
more  problematic  since  incumbents’  financing  still  largely  depends  on  public 
support  in  the  form  of  public  service  compensation.  Such  financing  usually 
supports  the  incumbent’s  rail  ticketing  platforms,  with  no  conditionality  to  make 
those  platforms  accessible  to  competitors.  At  the  same  time,  they  sometimes 
withhold  their  best  offers  and  real  time  traffic  information  from  third  party 
vendors, thus hindering the emergence of a strong independent ticketing market.  

583. The  barriers  to  ticket  distribution  do  not  only  hamper  smooth  multimodal 
experiences  for  passengers  but  also  constitute  market  access  barriers  for  new 
companies  that  would  like  to  provide  rail  services,  thus  limiting  the  potential 
benefits  of  market  opening.  A  number  of  national  regulators  have  become  active 
on  the  issue388,  but  a  European  solution  is  still  missing  to  ensure  seamless  travel 
and  fair  competition  throughout  the  single  European  railway  area.  Under  Article 
13a(2) of the Rail Governance Directive, the Commission shall present a report to 

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/10/21/improved-rail-passenger-rights-council-approves-the-

385 “Remaining challenges for EU-wide integrated ticketing and payment systems”, European Commission, Grimaldi Studio Legale, 
VVA, Wavestone, 2019 
386 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/rail/interoperability/interoperability/telematic_applications_en 
387 
informal-deal/  
388Bundeskartellamt: 
https://www.bundeskartellamt.de/SharedDocs/Meldung/EN/Meldungen%20News%20Karussell/2019/28_11_2019_DB_Mobilität.ht
ml;jsessionid=78C82035F037E081EDD1C18249A94842.1_cid362;  
Swedish Competition Authority: www.konkurrensverket.se/globalassets/konkurrens/beslut/18-0230-och-18-0380-beslut.pdf 

145 

 
                                                      
the  European  Parliament  and  the  Council  by  31  December  2022  on  rail  ticketing 
platforms, accompanied, if appropriate, by legislative proposals. 

584. For  mobility  platforms,  which  would  like  to  offer  multimodal  services  (provide 
real time information, and/or sell/issue tickets, offer new services), access and re-
use  of  data  needed  to  develop  their  services  is  often  hampered,  including  due  to 
interoperability challenges at EU level (data formats, protocols for data exchanges 
etc.).  

585. Another issue concerns the promotion of intermodal solutions combining aviation 
and  rail  journeys  through  Computer  Reservation  Systems  (CRSs).  CRSs  are 
computerised  reservation  networks  used  by  travel  agents  (online  and  offline), 
online  reservation  sites  and  large  corporations  as  a  single  point  of  access  for 
booking airlines tickets, rail tickets, but also other items such as hotel rooms, rental 
cars, and other travel related items. CRSs are also used by some metasearch sites in 
order to obtain information about the services of airlines that participate in CRSs. 

586. When  adopted  in  2009,  replacing  the  Regulation  previously  governing  this 
matter389,  the  Regulation  for  the  Computer  Reservation  Systems390  Code  of 
Conduct  took  steps  to  promote  rail  transport  and  inter-modal  transport.  This 
included  allowing  rail  operators  and  CRSs  to  freely  negotiate  booking  fees  and 
contractual  terms  for  ticket  distribution. Rail  ticket  information  is  also  subject  to 
the  neutral  display  requirement  which  applies  generally  to  air  ticket  information, 
whenever  rail  and  air  tickets  are  displayed  together  in  the  primary  display.  The 
evaluation391  found  that  there  is  insufficient  evidence  to  confirm  that  the 
Regulation  on  the  CRS  Code  of  Conduct  remains  an  appropriate  instrument  to 
promote rail transport and inter-modal transport. 

587. The potential of digitalisation is not used to its fullest for drivers either. Nowadays, 
around 60% of the population of the European Union holds a valid driving licence, 
representing some 270 million citizens. Many European drivers make cross-border 
trips within the Union for private or professional purposes or change their country 
of residence.  

588. Digital  driving licences  would be convenient  for drivers, reduce the risk  of fraud 
and 
these 
developments are likely to lead to a patchwork of different national rules that could 
hamper the full exploitation of the potential of digitalisation in this area.  

facilitate  enforcement.392  Unless 

interoperability 

is  ensured, 

589. The 

lack  of  Union  rules  providing  for  digital  driving 

is  also 
disadvantageous  for  cross-border  enforcement  of  traffic  offences.  The  possibility 
of  real-time  checking  of  licences  and  preventing  driving  licence  tourism  is 
currently  limited.  Furthermore,  there  is  no  mutual  recognition  of  driving 
disqualifications  and  penalty  points,  given  that  Member  States  have  different 
systems  of  adding  or  subtracting  points  for  different  degrees  of  traffic  offences, 
which can eventually lead to the withdrawal of the licence.  

licences 

590. At  the  moment  it  is  also  cumbersome  for  the  drivers  to  demonstrate  compliance 
with  urban  vehicle  access  regulation  (UVAR)  criteria  when  travelling  across 
Member  States.  The  current  identification/declaration  of  vehicle  characteristics  is 

389 Council Regulation (EEC) No 2299/89 of 24 July 1989 on a code of conduct for computerised reservation systems, OJ 1989 L 
220, p. 1. 
390  Regulation  (EC)  80/2009  on  Air  Ticket  Distribution  and  on  a  Code  of  Conduct  for  Computerised  Reservation  Systems  and 
repealing Council Regulation (EEC) No 2299/89, OJ L 35, 4.2.2009, p. 47. 
391 SWD(2020) 9 final 
392  The  Commission  is  currently  carrying  out  an  evaluation  of  Directive  2006/126/EC  on  driving  licences,  which  introduced  a 
standard format for all driving licences issued in the EU and standardised administrative validity periods. 

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done  by  registering  manually  in  a  city  system,  by  buying  a  sticker,  and/or  using 
number plate recognition. The process  is  often lengthy  and cumbersome. Despite 
the  potential  of  fast  digitalisation  of  the  automotive  sector,  an  EU-wide  digital 
sticker  or  other  form  of  digital  vehicle  identity  such  as  ENPR,  communicating 
digitally  the  vehicle  characteristics  to  the  relevant  authority  is  far  from  being  a 
reality.     

591.  In  fact,  seamless  identification  for  all  mobility-related  services  across  modes, 
which could facilitate and encourage multimodal choices of European travellers, is 
not available either. At the moment, despite a ubiquitous use of smartphones and 
digital  solutions,  there is  no EU tool  recognised  in  all Member States that  would 
enable  Europeans  to  use  one  mobility  account,  with  all  necessary  personal 
information, preferences, banking account details, driving licence or other potential 
documents such as the licence plate of their car (or even its characteristics (EURO 
norm)),  to  avoid  the  burden  to  register  each  time  they  want  to  get  access  to 
parkings, to city centres, to get access to and use mobility services, or to store (or 
even  replace)  all  tickets/proofs  of  purchase  (e.g.  urban  public  transport,  train, 
plane, taxi/PHV, shared mobility solutions, etc.). 

592. The advantages of digital solutions are also supported by the general public. In the 
recent  Eurobarometer  survey  on  mobility  and  transport393,  citizens  identified  the 
most useful  digital  solutions  for their  future personal  mobility. A single ticketing 
tool for all urban journeys in any European city came top of the list (19%), with the 
digital driving licences valid anywhere in Europe second (10%). Citizens are also 
interested in solutions allowing them to pay tolls, parking and other charges in real 
time  and  directly  from  a  smartphone  or  other  device  as  well  as  in  simple 
procedures  to  access  areas  subject  to  UVARs  in  different  European  cities.  These 
solutions need to be accessible for persons with disabilities and reduced mobility as 
well.  

4.2.1.2  Multimodal & collaborative economy challenges in urban context 

593. Seamless and smart multimodality facilitated by digitalisation is also key in urban 
and sub-urban areas.  Urban transport plays  a key  role for developing a  European 
transport system that offers seamless door-to-door mobility, for long distance and 
cross-border transport as well as for regional and local mobility.  

594. The  majority  of  long  distance  freight  and  passenger  journeys  start  or  finish  in 
urban areas. The corridors of the trans-European network pass through many urban 
areas  with  related  challenges  for  urban  roads.  Cities  increasingly  face  problems 
caused by mobility and transport: congestion, road crashes, air and noise pollution. 
Transport CO2 emissions are rising, with urban transport representing close to ¼ of 
them394. The question of how to improve mobility while tackling these problems is 
a common challenge to all major cities in Europe.  

595. At  the  same  time,  access  to  information  and  to  an  increased  variety  of  transport 
services  enabled  by  ICT  technologies  put  individual  travellers  much  more  in 
control  of  how  they  want  to  travel.  More  and  more  often  they  expect  to  have  a 
choice,  adapted  to  their  demand  rather  than  have  their  travel  routine  dictated  by 
transport operators. 

393 Special Eurobarometer 495. 
https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/Survey/getSurveyDetail/search/495/surveyKy/2226  
394 SWD (2016) 244 final. According to the EU Reference scenario 2016, based on PRIMES-TREMOVE model developed by the 
National Technical University of Athens (ICCS-E3MLab).     

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596. This  growing  pressure  on  urban  passenger  transport  systems  has  increased  the 
demand for new and innovative solutions with various forms of transport services 
being integrated into a single mobility service accessible on demand, including also 
shared  and  collaborative  mobility  services  (car-,  bike-sharing,  ride-hailing,  e-
scooters etc.).  

597. Building  on  these  new  modes  and  the  developments  in  information  and 
communication  technologies,  the  “Mobility  as  a  Service”  (MaaS)  concept,  which 
assumes that various forms of transport services  – both traditional and innovative 
ones  -  are  integrated  into  a  service  accessible  on  demand,  has  recently  come  to 
light.  In  practice,  a  successful  MaaS  involves  many  actors  (local,  regional  and 
national  operators, public, private, etc.) putting forward and reassigning available 
resources to make multimodal travel easier, more efficient and accessible.  

598. While  MaaS  holds  the  promise  of  making  urban  mobility  smarter,  more-user 
friendly  and  sustainable,  in  some  cities  the  close  competition  between  different 
stakeholders  makes  them  unwilling  to  share  information,  expose  their  business 
models and collaborate with their competitors, in turn making it difficult to come 
up with a true Mobility as a Service scheme. There are also challenges related to 
data, which is key to blend services together. The availability and accessibility to 
relevant  data  sets  in  digital,  machine  readable  format  and  interoperability  of 
different  systems  (booking,  payment,  ticketing,  authentication,  etc.)  is  still  not 
optimal.     

599. Simultaneously,  an  increasing  number  of  cities  have  witnessed  a  steady  shift 
towards  shared  and  collaborative  mobility  services  enabled  by  the  emergence  of 
intermediary  platforms.  Those  platforms  enable  the  sale  of  mobility  services, 
acting  as  intermediary  between  customers  and  mobility  service  providers,  and  in 
some cases, create new mobility services themselves e.g. e-scooters, bike-sharing, 
car-sharing and ride-hailing.  

600. The  development  of  new  mobility  services  may  present  many  opportunities. 
However, it  does not  mean that the  current  mobility offer  automatically  becomes 
more  efficient  or  it  replaces  the  old  one.  Regardless  of  new  mobility  service 
availability,  public  transport  remains  the  backbone  of  mobility  in  urban  and  sub-
urban  areas.  Multiple  US  and  European  research  highlights395  that  new  mobility 
services need to complement rather than replace public transport. They show that 
measures  such  as  ensuring  the  proper  infrastructure  can  help  integrate  these 
services between themselves and with local public transport. However, integration 
is already lagging behind in some European cities for more traditional services.  

601. As far as ride-hailing is concerned, in most Member States, both taxis and private 
hire  vehicles  with  driver  (PHV)  exist  next  to  each  other.  Taxis  and  PHVs  have 
traditionally  coexisted  and  served  distinct  markets.  However,  on-line  platforms 
have  radically  changed  –  or  even  disrupted  -  this  situation,  blurring  these 
traditional  boundaries,  creating  a  flourishing  new  sector  and  bringing  taxis  and 
PHVs in increasing competition. Local on-demand passenger transport has shifted 
from  being  organised  locally,  often  based  on  low-tech  dispatch  centres,  to  co-
existing  with  pan-European  or  global  companies  using  sophisticated  technologies 
and algorithms.  

395 See for instance Transport and Environment, 201, 9Europe’s giant ‘taxi’ company: is Uber part of the problem or the solution?; 
and    Schaller Consulting, 2018, The New Automobility:    Lyft, Uber and the Future of    American Cities,  

148 

 
                                                      
602.  This development has generally increased the quality and efficiency of the ways in 
which taxi and PHV services are provided. The possibility to order PHVs and taxis 
on-line,  thanks  to  apps  using  geo-localisation  services,  has  been  welcomed  by 
users and triggered an increase in demand. According to the recent Eurobarometer, 
users perceive traditional taxi services and private hire vehicles as similar type of 
service,  appreciating  the  availability  and  ease  of  booking  as  positive  aspects  of 
both.396  

603. However, this has not been without tensions and led to different national legislative 
responses. Ensuring a level playing field between these two types of actors is just 
one  of  the  challenges.  Addressing  legal  uncertainty  is  another  one  -  ride-hailing 
platforms, which are essential for PHV services, are objecting to the fact  that the 
legal  environment  is  constantly  changing  and  differing  between  EU  Member 
States.  Compliance  with  as  many  regulatory  regimes  as  the  cities  they  want  to 
serve is a barrier to develop a single market for these players. 

604. While the new services have the potential to improve the overall mobility system 
by offering alternatives, e.g. by helping people choose new modes of travelling and 
reducing ownership of private cars, which are responsible for the lion’s shares of 
emissions  from  the  transport  sector.  However,  this  is  yet  to  be  proven  at  a  large 
scale. There are legitimate concerns about the real environmental impact, including 
whether they would indeed decrease car ownership and traffic, unless the vehicles 
used are sustainable ones.397 In this context, it seems worth exploring how the use 
of cleaner vehicles can contribute to mitigating the environmental impact and how 
a  shift  to  low  and  zero-emission  vehicles  for  taxi  and  PHV  services  could  be 
encouraged/achieved.  

605.  Part of the possible negative impact is also the result of constraining and obsolete 
rules  -  taxis  are  often  limited  to  picking  up  passengers  in  dedicated  geographical 
areas resulting in empty return driving when taxies, after a trip out of these areas, 
are  forced  to  return  to  these  areas  for  picking  up  passengers.  PHVs  are  often 
obliged  to  return  to  the  ‘garage’  after  each  trip,  also  resulting  in  much  empty 
driving.  This  is  due  to  rules  that  pre-date  the  arrival  of  on-line  platforms  and 
therefore  ignore  the  efficiency  gains  they  can  bring,  thus  causing  unnecessary 
emissions.  

606. Concerns  are  often  raised  about  the  working  conditions  of  drivers  and  the 
employment status of platform workers. Certain drivers working for platforms are 
self-employed, not  well protected under labour law. Moreover, the fact  that  there 
are  generally  no  common  requirements  on  professional  competences  nor 
harmonised rules on driving and rest times, could be a risk in terms of the security 
of users and road safety.  

607. Last but not least, these new services also raise a number of other issues from the 
use of public space, road safety, maintenance, liability, insurance as well as overall 
integration of different mobility services into coherent urban mobility.  

608. While  new  mobility  services  become  a  day  to  day  reality,  there  is  currently  no 
specific EU legislation for the services or intermediary platforms related to  taxis, 
road  e-scooters  or  bikes.  National  governments  and  cities  struggle  with  applying 

396 Special Eurobarometer 495 on Mobility and Transport. 
https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/Survey/getSurveyDetail/search/495/surveyKy/2226  
397 Europe’s giant ‘taxi’ company: is Uber part of the problem or the solution?; Source: 
https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/T%26E_Europe%20s%20giant%20taxi%20company%20is%20Uber%20part%2
0of%20the%20problem%20or%20the%20solut...%20%281%29.pdf 

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existing  laws  or,  in  some  cases,  create  new  rules,  which  sometimes  restrict  the 
emergence of these new services. Businesses, on the other hand, miss legal clarity 
allowing  to  take  informed  decisions  about  possible  investments.398  The  recently 
updated  Sustainable  Urban  Mobility  Planning  guidelines399  take  these  new 
developments into consideration but do not constitute a binding legal framework.  

4.2.2  Intelligent Transport Systems and connected, automated mobility  

4.2.2.1  ITS challenges in road transport  

609. Another  major  trend,  relevant  both  for  urban  and  non-urban  environment  is  the 
deployment of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) and related solutions, which are 
revolutionising the way  we move and travel.  The general  public is  well aware of 
the  innovation  ITS  have  brought  about  in  the  mobility  e.g.  vehicle-navigation 
systems, traffic information integrated with navigation, parking systems.  

610. Beyond  specific  ITS  use-cases,  applying  various  information  and  communication 
technologies has also a huge potential to fundamentally change mobility across the 
modes, making it safer (e.g. by reducing human error in driving), more accessible 
(e.g.  bringing  mobility  to  those  who  cannot  drive  themselves  e.g.  elderly  or 
disabled  people),  more  efficient  and  sustainable  (e.g.  by  making  it  a  lot  easier  to 
share vehicles).  

611. Yet,  the  development  and  deployment  of  connected  and  automated  mobility 
systems  might  pose  a  multitude  of  challenges:  from  the  development  of 
technologies for the vehicle, its integration within the multimodal transport system, 
its  interaction  with  the  surrounding  environment  and  other  (in  particular 
vulnerable)  road  users  impacting  road  safety  to  the  need  for  complementary 
investments  in  digital  and  physical  infrastructure.  There  are  also  a  number  of 
related  policy  challenges  –  from  regulation  and  standards,  through  ethics  and 
impact on professional drivers.     

612. Public acceptance of this promising technology  has not  yet been established. The 
majority of citizens are not yet ready to simply trust a driverless vehicle to behave 
safely,  whether  inside  a  car  or  on  a  pedestrian  crossing.  The  recent  Special 
Eurobarometer survey on “Expectations and concerns of connected and automated 
driving”400  showed  that  a  majority  of  those  surveyed  would  feel  comfortable  in 
automated  vehicles  that  are  being  supervised  by  a  human  operator  in  it,  but  less 
than half say they  would feel  comfortable in the case  where  a human operator is 
supervising  the  vehicle  remotely.  For  the  time  being,  a  majority  would  not  feel 
comfortable  in  the  presence  of  fully  automated  vehicles  on  the  roads  either.  The 
transfer of control between machine and driver and under what conditions is one of 
the big issues to ensure technology acceptance and safety.    

613. As for driving such vehicles, two thirds of respondents would feel  comfortable if 
they could take back control at any point in time, while for just over half it would 
be  enough  to  be  able  to  take  back  control  if  the  vehicle  does  not  understand  the 

398Study on passenger transport by taxi, hire car with driver and ridesharing in the EU, 2016; 
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/2016-09-26-pax-transport-taxi-hirecar-w-driver-ridesharing-final-report.pdf. 
399  In  particular  the  dedicated  topical  guides  on  integration  of  shared  mobility  approaches  in  SUMP,  on  Mobility  as  a  Service 
(MaaS)  and  SUMP,  and  on  the  role  of  Intelligent  Transport  Systems  (ITS)  in  SUMP:  https://www.eltis.org/mobility-plans/topic-
guides-0  
400Special  Eurobarometer  496  on  Expectations  and  concerns  of  connected  and  automated  driving,  April  2020; 
https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2231_92_1_496_ENG 

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situation.401  But  there  are  also  safety  considerations  with  respect  to  how  drivers 
take back control (e.g. when an automated car encounters a situation it cannot deal 
with, such as an atypical maintenance lane).   

614. Part of the issue is that transition to higher levels of automation in road transport 
allowing for safe interaction between highly automated and  “traditional”  vehicles 
in  “mixed  traffic”  and  with  non-motorised  road  users  need  to  be  fully  addressed. 
Questions  related  to  human-machine  interactions  and  awareness  (e.g.  how  can 
other road users recognise highly automated vehicles and predict their behaviour, 
where previously there would be eye contact between users) will be at the centre of 
this issue. 

615. A  large  part  of  the  answer  will  come  from  Cooperative  ITS  (C-ITS),  enabling 
direct  communication  between  vehicles  and  their  surrounding  infrastructure. 
Already today C-ITS based on ITS-G5 is deployed on commercial non-automated 
series-vehicles.  As  highlighted  by  the  2016  strategy  for  C-ITS,  accelerated 
deployment of C-ITS will bring increased road safety and pave the way for higher 
levels of automation. 

616. A number of Advanced  Driver Assistance systems,  which have  great  potential in 
preventing crashes and/or their severity, will become mandatory for all new vehicle 
models (in 2022) and later for all new vehicles (in 2024) under the revised General 
Vehicle Safety Regulation  (see also  sections 3.4 and 4.3).  In order to  ensure safe 
operation of the assistance systems throughout a vehicle’s lifetime, roadworthiness 
testing centres will need access to relevant data.  

617. Last  but  not  least,  the  current  traffic  rules  are  not  yet  fit  for  higher  levels  of 
automation.  Those  rules  are  set  by  Member  States  based  on  international 
conventions  managed  by  the  United  National  Economic  Commission  for  Europe 
(UNECE). In contrast to UN conventions on vehicle safety, the EU is so far not a 
contracting party to  the  conventions related to  traffic rules and only has observer 
status,  which  could  hamper  its  ability  to  coordinate  Member  State  positions.  An 
aligned and holistic European approach to global questions on automated driving, 
including traffic rules, testing or liability aspects, would be desirable from a single 
market  perspective  and  for  promoting  European  industrial  global  leadership,  as 
well as in terms of materialization of road safety benefits.  

618. For the time being, the legal and policy framework defining links between vehicles 
and  traffic  management,  between  public  and  privately  owned  data,  and  between 
collective  and  individual  transport,  are  not  sufficiently  developed.  There  is  no 
coordination mechanism at the EU level that would help ensure consistency of the 
deployment  and  management  of  ITS  and  CCAM  across  Europe.  There  is  no 
coherent  way  of  implementing  a  type-approval  for  connected  and  automated 
vehicles  and  their  emissions  testing  and  roadworthiness  inspection  methods,  for 
example.  

619. Competition in the automotive industry is shifting from building cars (hardware) to 
software-centric,  connected  services.  Moreover,  fragmentation  in  the  industry 
might  affect  EU  competitiveness  significantly,  taking  into  account  that  industry 
approach in Europe could be conservative compared to other developers. 

620. In this context, the emergence of new mobile radio communication systems such as 
5G and its vertical application to the automotive and transport sectors can act as a 
catalyst  to  accelerate  the  way  towards  multi-service  mobility  and  transport 

401 Ibid. 

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ecosystems  and  contribute  to  the  resilience  and  sovereignty  of  the  European 
industry in the field. This strong expectation of multiple ecosystems enabled by a 
common  5G  network  infrastructure  associated  with  connected  vehicles  and  road 
infrastructure  will  enable  to  combine  different  technologies,  sensors  (in  vehicles 
and  on  the  ground),  high  accuracy  location,  precise  positioning,  high  definition 
mapping,  converged  AI  on  devices,  at  the  network  edge  (including  Mobile  Edge 
Computing)  and  in  the  cloud,  and,  in  particular  high  quality  direct  and  network 
communications  between  all  moving  and  fixed  elements  (vehicles,  bikes, 
pedestrians, and road infrastructure).  

621. This vision has been the basis for the CEF Digital programme over the 2021-2027 
period,  which  includes  an  indicative  list  of  5G  Corridors  envisaged  for  funding, 
based  on  TEN-T  corridors.  It  received  the  support  of  leading  European  industry 
associations,  ACEA,  CEDR,  GSMA  and  5GAA,  through  the  publication,  on  2 
October 2020, of a 5G Strategic Deployment Agenda for CAM402. The roll-out of 
5G corridors, in complement with deployment activities in the fields of C-ITS and 
CCAM,  will  provide  a  strong  basis  to  Europe  for  the  development  of  the  multi-
service ecosystem for mobility and transport. 

622. While  a  number  of  research,  large-scale  demonstration  and  testing  projects  are 
taking place in EU Member States (some with Commission support), they are not 
numerous  or  coordinated  well  enough  across  the  EU.403  To  address  the  most 
pressing  challenges,  the  EU  is  currently  supporting  the  set-up  of  a  new  public 
private  partnership,  based  on  a  vision  that  maximises  the  societal  benefits  of 
CCAM  and  its  potential  to  create  new,  more  inclusive,  shared  and  sustainable 
mobility  services.  This  proposed  partnership  should  establish  links  with  other 
partnerships  (under  Horizon  Europe),  in  which  activities  relevant  for  connected 
and automated mobility are planned. 

623. However, even with such a partnership in place, further coordination capacity may 
be needed at  EU level in relation to the deployment and management of ITS and 
CCAM across Europe, including in areas such as road infrastructure, type-approval 
and  market  surveillance,  roadworthiness  inspection  methods,  traffic  rules  for 
automated mobility, as well as to other detailed EU level safety and related tasks, 
and for the preparation of technical rules, coordination among national authorities' 
actions, and collection and analysis of relevant data.  

4.2.2.2  ITS challenges in other modes of transport  

624. To  achieve  a  truly  intelligent  transport  system,  efficient  capacity  allocation  and 
traffic  management,  automation  and  digitalisation  must  also  be  addressed  across 
other transport modes as they help to avoid a capacity crunch on the one hand and 
reduce CO2 emissions on the other. 

625. Rail is a highly complex operating environment, consisting of a number of systems 
which  are  or  should  be  automated,  and  where  interoperability  between  diverse 
infrastructure networks and vehicles (rolling stock) is required.     

626. The key elements include passenger and freight information (relating to ticket, seat 
reservation, freight consignment and location), timetable design (advance planning 
to optimise use of network capacity, rolling stock and personnel and allow  public 

402 https://5g-ppp.eu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/20201002_5G_SDA_for_CAM_Final.pdf 
403 See SWD [XXX], Impact Assessment accompanying the Proposal for a Council Regulation establishing the Joint Undertakings 
under Horizon Europe.    European Partnership for cooperative, connected and automated mobility  

152 

 
                                                      
timetables to be produced, freight services sold etc.), traffic management (near real 
time  control  of  operations,  to  resolve  conflicts  between  trains,  prioritise  services, 
where  inevitable  real  world  problems  prevent  the  timetable  being  operated 
precisely  as  planned),  signalling  (ensuring  switches  are  set  and  train  movements 
controlled  to  prevent  conflicts  between  trains  and  get  them  to  their  intended 
destination), train protection systems (systems on board trains to ensure they do not 
pass signals set at danger, and in modern systems, to ensure they do not exceed the 
safe  speed  for  the  line  and  signal  aspect)  as  well  as  train  automation  (automated 
functions  drive  the  train  itself  –  either  as  an  assistance  to  the  driver;  taking  over 
functions  from  the  driver  but  retaining  him  for  passenger  confidence  and 
emergency tasks, or allowing completely unattended operations). 

627. Taking  these  in  reverse  order:  in  rail,  automatic  train  operations  (ATOs)  are 
essential to make the most of capacity while ensuring energy saving, reliability and 
safety. While some metros have been automated for many years, higher automation 
levels and autonomy on mainlines are not yet ready on main lines, preventing the 
appearance of more flexible services. ATO would also allow higher capacity (since 
the  speed  of  an  automated  train  can  be  precisely  matched  to  the  minimum  safe 
distance from the previous train). 

628. Introduction  of  rail  automation  is  much  simpler  than  in  road,  since  the  overall 
environment is already highly controlled. Nevertheless the availability of common 
standards  for  equipment  and  train  operation,  which  are  needed  to  ensure 
interoperability, is not yet optimal. The standards for Automatic Train Operations 
Grade  of  Automation  1  and  2404  were  developed  within  the  S2R  JU  programme, 
and  are  now  available.  They  will  be  included  in  the  next  revision  of  the  CCS 
(Control  Command  and  Signalling)  Technical  specifications  for  Interoperability, 
scheduled for 2022.  

629. In order to reap the full advantages of automation and not to break interoperability, 
rail ATO in the EU should be based on the common EU train protection/signalling 
system  (ERTMS).  Despite  its  name,  the  European  Rail  Traffic  Management 
System does not  yet include traffic management  – rather it harmonises automatic 
train  protection  and  communication  systems,  which  ensure  that  trains  stop  where 
they need to, and travel  at a safe speed for the line that they are on. Efforts have 
been  made  to  improve  interoperability  by  replacing  21  obsolete  national  systems 
with one, helping to greatly reduce the cost of rail equipment, growing the capacity 
of the rail network, and improving railway safety.     

630. However, due to the complexity of replacing legacy systems in Member States (the 
system  itself  needs  to  be  partly  installed  beside  the  track  and  partly  on  board 
trains), as well as its substantial costs, the ERTMS deployment in Europe is slower 
than wished. Part of the challenge is that a standard, modular system architecture 
for rail control and signalling that would help speed up the deployment of ERTMS 
and lower the deployment costs does not exist yet, though this is being addressed 
through the Shift2Rail programme and its successor.      

631. Network wide deployment is now underway in several member states, with many 
others  planning  it:  such  deployment  allows  the  legacy  systems  to  be  removed 
completely.  The  latest  versions  of  ERTMS  (Level  2  and  3)  will  allow  most 
trackside  equipment  to  be  removed,  leading  to  substantial  cost  savings  for 
infrastructure managers over the medium term (estimated at EUR 1bn per year for 

404 The train is driven automatically, stopping is automated but a driver in the cab is required to start automatic driving of the train. 

153 

 
                                                      
DE  alone).  Reduced  maintenance  needs  also  increase  rail  capacity  and  reliability 
since fewer route closures for maintenance are required.  

632. Traffic  management  is  another  key  aspect  of  achieving  smart  rail  operations.  It 
helps  manage  the  paths  of  trains  through  the  network,  ensuring  they  keep  to 
timetable and re-planning them when things go wrong. Currently this is managed 
by a patchwork of tools at regional level. 

633. Higher levels of European Train Control Systems (ETCS) and the Future Railway 
Mobile Communication System (FRMCS) will accelerate the digitalisation of rail 
operations  and  enable  safer  and  more  secure  higher  traffic  density  on  rail  tracks. 
Advanced 5G communications systems will contribute to this process, but also to a 
better connectivity environment for train passengers. A first version of a Strategic 
Deployment Agenda “5G connectivity and spectrum for rail”, released on in April 
2020  by  the  rail  infrastructure  managers  and  rail  undertakings  associations,  EIM 
and  CER,  provides  guidance  to  the  deployment  of  5G  connectivity  infrastructure 
for digital rail operations and ‘Gigabit Train’ for passengers in the perspective of 
CEF Digital. 

634. The  ability  of  5G  infrastructure  to  deliver  high  quality,  secure  and  ultra-reliable 
connectivity to both FRMCS and Gigabit Train, as well as to CAM in areas where 
rail tracks and roads run in parallel, will enable to speed-up the deployment process 
and lower the overall costs. 

635. There  are  also  challenges  related  to  automation  and  traffic  management  in  the 
European  airspace.  Digitalisation  holds  promise  to  substantially  improve  the 
situation. Progress has been achieved on the research and innovation side through 
the SESAR project. However, today Air Traffic Management (ATM) still relies to 
a large extent on an outdated technology.     

636. Scalability  of  ATM  -  in  a  safe,  efficient  and  effective  way  -  remains  one  of  the 
most important challenges for the sector. Today this is not fully achievable due to 
the fragmented and monopolistic nature of ATM in Europe.  

637. A true network oriented approach405 to ATM in Europe is also missing. The local 
approach  to  Air  Navigation  Services  provision  is  less  effective  and  leads  to 
congestion  and  capacity  crisis  whereas  experience  shows  that  more  effective 
network coordination decreases delays and congestion.  

638. The shortcomings of the current ATM system lead to a number of environmental 
challenges. The congestion above Europe in 2018 and 2019 led to environmentally 
sub-optimal flight paths in terms of CO2 emissions, when pilots had to fly around 
congested  airspace  sectors.  The  way  the  ATM  services  are  charged  is  also  not 
optimal  from  the  environmental  perspective.  Under  the  current  system,  airspace 
users optimise their routings by minimising not only the sum of fuel costs, but also 
the  route  charges.  This  may  lead  to  choosing  to  fly  longer  routes  because  the 
charges  are lower in  a certain  charging zone. The overall “benefit pool” of ATM 

405 The Airspace Architecture Study, carried out by the SESAR Joint Undertaking in collaboration with the Network Manager and 
released on 5 March 2019, defines how Europe’s airspace architecture should look in the medium- to long-term (2025-2035), and 
what practical steps would need to be taken to make it a reality. It is estimated that a reduction of nautical miles flown between 4 
and 10 NM in 2030 and between 7 and 13 NM in 2035 per flight could be achieved. Considering the traffic forecast up to 2035 as 
projected  before  the  outbreak  of  the  COVID-19  pandemic,  and  linear  increase  in  the  reduction  of  nautical  miles  saved,  the  total 
benefit was estimated to be between 30 and 60 millions of tons of CO2 over the 2019-2035 time period. That implies optimising 
flight  trajectories  thanks  to  SESAR  solutions  such  as  free  route  airspace  operations,  airspace  reorganisation  and  4D  trajectory 
management, which can alone generate between 240 and 450 kg savings of CO2 emissions on average per flight. Revised long-term 
traffic forecasts for post COVID-19 scenarios are not available at the time of  writing this report. It can however be assumed that 
traffic will resume and pick up again until 2035 and some of this CO2 saving potential can be realised over this time frame. 

154 

 
                                                      
sector  is  at  least  11.6  Mt  of  excess  CO2  emissions  that  ATM  can  directly 
influence406.  

639. Challenges of automation and smooth integration into a smart transport system are 
also  relevant  for  the  deployment  of  drones  –  a  growing  business  in  Europe, 
delivering services in  all environments  (from mapping, infrastructure inspections, 
delivery  of  goods  and  e-commerce,  to  mention  just  a  few),  with  a  potential  to 
reduce congestion, accidents and make mobility cleaner.  

640. These ATM challenges are addressed through the Single European Sky framework 
and in particular through its technological pillar, the SESAR project. SESAR aims 
to  establish  the  ‘digital  European  sky’  that  will  allow  the  optimal  use  of  the 
European  airspace  through  innovative  technological  and  operational  solutions 
based on a high degree of digitalisation and automation. The digital European sky 
addresses  air  and  ground  operations  offering  solutions  for  civil  and  military 
airspace  users,  airports,  air  navigation  service  providers.  More  efficient  flight 
trajectories will also allow modern aircraft to fully exploit their greener and quieter 
technologies.   

641. Drone deliveries can solve last/first mile logistics issues for some areas of Europe. 
Analyses  by  the  JRC  indicates  that  under  the  most  technologically  realistic 
scenario,  up  to  7%  of  EU  citizens  could  get  access  to  such  services.  When 
considering technological improvements scenarios, this range is extended to 30%. 
Furthermore,  results  suggest  that  due  the  differences  in  population  and  land-use 
patterns in the different Member States, the potential drone coverage across Europe 
could be very heterogeneous, with the Germany, Italy and France appearing as the 
most  likely  countries  where  drone-beehives  may  have  the  most  efficient 
development407.     

642. Several solutions were successfully demonstrated in Horizon 2020 (e.g. CIVITAS 
and  the  EIP  SCC  Smart  Cities  living  labs)  and  with  support  from  the  European 
Regional Development Fund. Smarter, integrated deliveries will cut overall traffic 
and  provide  better  information  on  delivery  times408,  while  the  use  of  cleaner 
vehicles  will  help  to  reduce  local  pollution  levels.  These  types  of  solutions  can 
deliver  cascading  benefits  on  the  urban  mobility  systems  and  are  incentivized  by 
pricing  and  city  interventions  –  public  space  allocation  for  micro  distribution 
centres on bikes, facilitation between private stakeholders. 

643. The deployment of drones may be facilitated by  the U-space services, in  specific 
Geographical  Zones  defined  as  ‘U-space’  airspace.  U-space  services  allow  drone 
operators to rely on a high level of digitalisation and automation, permitting a safe, 
efficient  and  secure  access  to  airspace  for  large  numbers  of  drones,  while 
addressing an appropriate interface with manned aviation and air traffic services.  

644. Whilst these rules can contribute to counter or mitigate possible security risks e.g. 
in  case  of  malicious  use  of  drones  at  the  same  time,  every  incident  increases  the 
risk of losing public trust and acceptance, which are crucial for taking advantage of 
the economic and employment opportunities of drones and drone-related services. 
Drones  pose  also  a  number  of  urban  mobility  challenges  –  flying  at  very  low 

406  It should be noted, however, that there are a number of reasons why the actual trajectory flown can vary from the unimpeded 
trajectory, and therefore 100% efficiency is not always achievable (e.g. due to adverse weather, avoidance of ‘Danger Areas’, need 
to maintain minimum separation). 
407  https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/last-mile-delivery-drones-estimation-viable-market-potential-and-access-citizens-across-
european 
408  The  majority  (80%)  of  the  time  this  delivery  is  not  urgent  and  the  Flemish  Institute  for  Logistics  has  calculated  that  if  three 
quarters of deliveries were done to picking-up points instead of home, the environmental cost would be reduced by 60 to 80%. 

155 

 
                                                      
levels, they require a rethink of the boundaries of urban and public space, including 
urban  infrastructure  planning,  levels  of  noise  and  safeguards  to  ensure  citizens’ 
confidence, for instance in relation to privacy. 

645. There  are  barriers  to  achieving  a  fully  intelligent  transport  system  in  the 
waterborne sector as well. In case of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) 
there  is  no  EU  policy  and  regulatory  framework  that  would  enable  and  facilitate 
cross-border  testing  and  trials  at  sea.  Such  testing  and  trials  as  for  example 
undertaken within the Horizon 2020 autoship project409, is important not only for 
such type of ships, but also for the necessary maritime monitoring and control of 
such ships in the future 

646. First steps to address the situation have been taken through operational guidelines 
and  the  further  development  of  the  vessel  traffic  monitoring  and  information 
system410 in order to enable seamless maritime transport and traffic management of 
both  manned  and  unmanned  ships.  Due  to  the  international  nature  of  shipping, 
linking  ports  of  countries  worldwide,  harmonized  technical  standards,  developed 
with an active participation of stakeholders, are necessary. 

647. The absence of adequate policy and regulatory framework also  applies for Inland 
Waterways  Autonomous  Ships,  despite  launching  several  sector  initiatives  in  the 
context  of  Smart  Shipping  on  local  and  regional  level.  A  holistic  view  on 
automation  of  the  sector,  covering  adjustments  of  existing  regulations  (e.g.  on 
vessel-,  crew-,  infrastructure  requirements,  incentives  for  the  sector  to  invest  in 
automation),  is  missing.  Meanwhile,  steps  have  been  taken  to  support  the 
deployment  of  harmonised  River  Information  Services  (RIS)  in  order  to  enable 
seamless transport and traffic management on the European inland waterways. The 
evolution of RIS needs to take into consideration new requirements stemming from 
the  digital  transformation  happening  in  the  sector  (e.g.  digital  ship  operator 
platforms,  port  information  systems,  synchromodality,  corridor  management, 
Smart Shipping, and Inland Waterways Autonomous Ships).  

648. The study supporting the evaluation of Directive 2005/44/EC on harmonised river 
information  services  (RIS)411  highlighted 
that  a  full  harmonisation  and 
interoperability  of  RIS  has  not  been  achieved  yet,  due  to  different  speeds  in 
implementation and varying data quality. Potential adaptions and extensions of the 
legal  framework  on  RIS  may  help  closing  the  harmonisation  and  interoperability 
gaps.  Among  others,  streamlined  revision  cycles  for 
technical 
specifications  in  the  European  Committee  for  standards  in  the  field  of  inland 
navigation (CESNI) could facilitate the evolution of RIS towards Smart Shipping 
and help the digital transformation of the sector with a view to  the synchromodal 
developments in transport.  

the  RIS 

649. Further  support  through  the  Connecting  Europe  Facility  Programme  would 
contribute to  the implementation  of River  Information Services (RIS) on national 
as  well  as  river  corridor  level  as  required  by  the  TEN-T  Regulation  in  order  to 
ensure a smooth transition into full operation of RIS until 2030.  

650. Whereas  the  digital  transformation  of  maritime  ports  is  progressing  fast,  smaller 
inland ports are often lagging behind in the digitalisation of business processes and 
the digital integration of hinterland transport chains. This issue could be addressed 

409 https://www.autoship-project.eu/ 
410 Directive 2002/59/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 June 2002 establishing a Community vessel traffic 
monitoring and information system and repealing Council Directive 93/75/EEC, OJ L 208, 5.8.2002, p. 10. 
411 https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/1f0e2c53-7ebe-11ea-aea8-01aa75ed71a1  

156 

 
                                                      
by actions supporting the implementation of single windows and port community 
systems  for  inland  ports,  building  upon  the  established  frameworks  and 
experiences of their maritime counterparts and using the full potential of existing 
and emerging river information services. 

651. The  Commission  services  have  started  preparatory  work  related  to  a  smart 
tachograph for Inland Waterways (IWT), which could improve the functioning of 
the  IWT  market,  minimise  the  administrative  burden,  improve  enforcement  and 
increase the uptake and acceptance of electronic documents/solutions. This is part 
of  a  broader  effort  to  create  a  modern,  coherent,  flexible  and  well-enforceable 
legislative framework at the EU level for IWT, facilitated also by digital tools, as 
requested by the EU social partners.  

4.2.3  Innovation and mobility of the future  

652. Achieving the Green Deal in the field of mobility, making full use of digitalisation 
and maintaining the EU industry’s  global competitiveness  cannot  happen without 
research  and  innovation  support.412  For  example,  R&D  investments  in  the 
automotive  industry  reached  EUR  57.4  billion  in  2018,  i.e.  28%  of  EU  spending 
(source  ACEA)  413,  mainly  on  clean  vehicles  and  also  a  large  amount  spent  on 
digitalisation  and  mobility  of  the  future.  There  is  currently  a  risk  of  significant 
decrease  in  the  R&D  effort  which  has  major  spill-over  and  cross-fertilisation 
effects for other sectors of the EU economy and competitiveness. 

653. The  research  and  innovation  framework  programme  Horizon  2020  already 
deployed  EUR  5  billion  for  the  period  2014-2020  to  develop  and  test  innovative 
solutions  for  seamless,  green,  integrated,  inclusive,  affordable,  safe,  secure  and 
resilient transport systems. Furthermore, research and close-to-market innovation is 
supported by the European Regional Development Fund, within the framework of 
Smart  Specialisation.  By  investing  in  both  technology  and  socio-economic 
research, pooling resources and sharing risks, the programme supported improving 
the  transport  sector’s  efficiency  in  the  use  of  natural  resources  and  reducing  its 
dependence  on  fossil  fuels,  thus  reducing  its  environmental  impact  while 
sustaining the European transport manufacturing industries and related services to 
maintain or take worldwide leadership. Facilitating strategic planning and a trans-
national  approach  to  common  European  and  global  problems,  it  tackled  growing 
mobility needs for people and goods and enabled public acceptance and uptake of 
new technologies.414 

654.  However,  challenges  still  persist  as  far  as  the  full  innovation  cycle  from  policy-
based  need  for  research  to  large  market  deployment  is  concerned.  The  transport 
sector requires a close alignment between R&I initiatives for specific modes and a 
systemic  approach  towards  a  multimodal  integrated  transport  system  that  is  safe, 
secure,  efficient,  affordable,  sustainable  and  based  on  user  needs  for  hassle-free 
door-to-door passenger mobility and freight transport. However, this is still not the 
case.  

655. There  is  currently  still  an  insufficiently  strong  pathway  between  R&I  projects, 
policy  development  and  the  market  introduction  of  innovation.  Furthermore  the 

412 STRIA roadmap on mobility service, 2019 
413 SWD(2020) 98 final  
414 Interim evaluation of Horizon 2020 (Commission Staff Working Document, SWD(2017)220 and 221) 

157 

 
                                                      
coordination needed between EU and national  funding programmes (where about 
80% of public R&I funding is programmed) is not yet optimal. 

656. The  transport  sector  with  its  large  assets  (esp.  aircraft,  trains,  vessels)  and  long-
term  investment  cycles  for  infrastructure  (roads,  rail,  ports,  inland  waterways, 
airports  and  traffic  management)  also  requires  specific  strategic  approaches  for 
large scale innovation deployment.  It is expected that this can best be achieved by 
specific  public-private  partnerships  such  as  in  aviation  (Clean  Sky  and  SESAR) 
and  rail  (Shift2Rail),  if  accompanied  by  a  suitable  regulatory  framework  and 
market  measures  to  ensure  uptake  of  results.  Similar  initiatives  are  being 
investigated  to  achieve  zero  emission  waterborne  transport  and  for  connected, 
cooperative and automated mobility as well as clean road transport.415 

657. Under  Horizon  2020416  and  in  the  framework  of  smart  specialisation  thematic 
platforms417,  partnerships  have  successfully  engaged  major,  strategic  industrial 
partners  in  research  and  innovation  in  the  respective  industrial  sectors,  thus 
becoming  important  drivers  for  a  systemic  transformation  strengthening  Europe's 
competitiveness. They helped respond to major socio-economic challenges in areas 
where well-identified market risks and fragmentation require a long-term concerted 
effort.  They  also  linked  activities  across  the  innovation  cycle,  from  research 
outcomes  to  closer-to-market  activities,  facilitating  the  creation  of  an  internal 
market for innovative technologies, products and services. These partnerships will 
have  to  strengthen  even  further  their  impact,  accelerating  research,  development 
and demonstrations of innovative technologies and operational solutions as well as 
increasing  market  uptake.  They  are  expected  to  develop  close  synergies  with 
national  and  regional  initiatives,  acting  as  dynamic  change  agents,  strengthening 
linkages within their respective ecosystems and along the value chains, as well as 
pooling resources and efforts towards the common EU objectives. 

658. The need for systemic  change in  transport also requires  a new approach  between 
innovations  in  those  sectors  relevant  for  this  transformation.  The  decarbonisation 
of  transport  can  only  be  successful  in  close  collaboration  with  the  energy  sector 
and  its  work  on  smart  electric  grids,  batteries  and  production  of  innovation 
alternative  fuels  (hydrogen,  biofuels,  and  synthetic  fuels).  Digitalisation  and 
automation  in  transport  relies  on  technology  transfer  and  application  of  latest 
technologies in  the areas of big data, artificial intelligence as well as information 
and communication technologies.  

659. Activities  of  citizens’  engagement  can  be  promoted  in  order  to  involve  a 
representative  group  of  people  in  the  co-design  of  the  future  transport  system,  to 
increase  awareness  about  the  potential  added  value  of  new  technologies  in  their 
daily life and to ensure the development of a transport system properly addressing 
peoples'  needs  while  recognising  their  diversity.  A  network  of  ‘European  Living 
Labs’ could be established in order to engage with citizens at a local and practical 
level. 

660. Mastering 

the 

threefold  challenges  of  GHG  neutrality,  digitalisation  and 
competitiveness requires much higher efforts and funding for R&I than in the past. 
A  more  integrated  approach  has  been  proposed  with  a  common  R&I  cluster  on 

the 

towards 

415Orientations 
7 
(https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/research_and_innovation/strategy_on_research_and_innovation/documents/ec_rtd_orientati
ons-he-strategic-plan_122019.pdf) 
416 Interim evaluation of the Joint Undertakings operating under Horizon 2020 (Commission Staff Working Document, SWD(2017) 
338)  
417 https://s3platform.jrc.ec.europa.eu/mobility 

Strategic 

Horizon 

Europe, 

Annex 

Plan 

first 

for 

158 

 
                                                      
climate, energy and mobility. EU support to R&I will be vital to avoid fragmented 
approaches and prepare larger European markets for innovation uptake. Financial 
instruments such as blending under InvestEU or under the EIC can leverage private 
innovation deployment funding.  

661.  In  addition,  so  far  the  EU  has  not  yet  developed  a  coherent  policy  and  research 
framework related to “mobility of the future” innovations. Often cross-modal, and 
not  so  long  ago  only  abstract  ideas,  technological  breakthroughs  and  innovative 
business  models  requiring  new  policy  and  regulatory  solutions  are  maturing  at  a 
very fast pace with physical prototypes and projects springing around. 

662.   Furthermore,  mobility  is  facing  a  massive  transformation,  as  new  digital 
technologies  enable  innovative  related  businesses.  As  such,  a  redesign  of 
conventional  siloed  approaches  to  transportation  modes  and  mobility  is  taking 
place,  blurring  the  traditional  roles.  This  phenomenon  is  amplified  with  the 
entrance of new actors from other sectors. 

663.  Hyperloop  for  example418,  is  a  concept  which  essentially  allows  the  transport  of 
people and goods at very high speeds via magnetically levitated (mag-lev) pods in 
vacuum tubes.  Potential speeds of over 1000 km/h are in theory possible.  Thus it 
could  potentially  compete  with  aviation  over  long  distances  –  while  being 
electrically powered and thus readily decarbonised. 

664.  The technology is  still at  an early development  stage, with  its true economic and 
technical feasibility still to be demonstrated.  Nevertheless, given its potential it is 
important  that the EU can help  to  assess the potential  of the new technology and 
potential  services  and  can  support  the  development  of  a  suitable  regulatory, 
standardisation, safety and interoperability framework. 

665. At the same time some of the brightest engineers in the world are racing to make 
previously science fiction personal air vehicles a reality. While none are ready to 
fly  yet  commercially,  some  industry  representatives  point  to  the  possibility  to 
having them ready in the near future, with tests starting as early as 2020/2021.419     

666. While many of Europe’s strategic competitors have pushed ahead with developing 
an enabling environment for emerging technologies, the case for Europe to become 
the test  bed and pilot  deployment destination for these innovative and potentially 
game-changing  technologies  is  not  obvious.  While  inventors  and  investors  are 
ready to test them, it is  often not clear how these new transport means should be 
approached  from  a  regulatory  point  of  view,  in  particular,  with  respect  to 
traditional  vs  adaptive  and  flexible  regulatory  responses.  The  EU  is  often 
considered  too  complex  and  not  ‘friendly’  enough  to  deploy  new  ideas.  EU 
Member States may also be tempted to proceed on their own to gain a competitive 
edge and avoid lengthy coordination processes.  

4.2.4  Digital enablers 

667. The  transition  towards  smart  mobility  -  more  efficient,  user-friendly  and 
sustainable can only happen if the right digital enablers are in place. In this regard, 
shaping  a  proper  data  economy  for  mobility;  analysing  available  spectrum  and 
needs;  boosting  connectivity  infrastructure  deployment;  or  designing  a  clear 

418 Another concept being considered is that of underground freight transport. 
https://www.admin.ch/gov/fr/accueil/documentation/communiques.msg-id-80871.html  
419 See e.g.: https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/all-the-flying-cars-and-taxis-currently-in-development/ 

159 

 
                                                      
framework  for  using  Artificial  Intelligence  and  other  breakthrough  technologies, 
should be fundamental pillars towards the successful transport transformation.  

4.2.4.1  Data for smart transport and mobility  

668.  Data is at the heart of this digital transformation. Exchanging data is a prerequisite 
for  a  seamless  passenger  experience  across  modes,  allowing  integrated  planning, 
ticketing,  and  purchase.  Furthermore,  exchanging  data  enables  operators  to 
optimise their operational and maintenance processes. In addition, data governance 
should be based on a systemic approach in which all sectors benefit from the data 
exchange,  especially  when  implementing  smart  cities.  The  industry  is  actually 
requesting more action on the connectivity side, data governance, data sharing, and 
communication.  

669.  Interoperability is a precondition for successfully linking data flows and distributed 
systems across sectors, borders and transport modes – and with related areas such 
as  security,  energy,  health,  environment  etc.  The  European  Interoperability 
Framework420 is currently under review as part of the Commission’s commitment 
to presenting a strengthened EU interoperability strategy by the end of 2021. This 
will directly support sectoral digital transformation strategies, such as mobility. 

670. Data  exchange  is  equally  important  for  smoother  logistics,  so  that  choices  on 
transport  modes  and  routes  could  be  made  and  adjusted  in  real  time,  based  on 
traffic conditions, availability of vehicles, vessels and infrastructure, cargo location 
and final destination. Transport and logistics operators need sufficient information 
on  the  network  and  traffic  conditions  to  be  able  to  predict  reliable  journey  times 
and optimise costs, energy consumption and environmental impact – from tackling 
congestion  to  minimising  local  air  pollution.  Information  on  planned  works  or 
capacity restrictions is needed to plan for the most suitable modal choice to make 
effective  multimodal  transport,  integrating  all  modes  of  transport  a  reality.  Real-
time  information  on  the  localisation  of  goods  and  their  transhipment  would  also 
enable the activation of smart contracts linked to goods handling along the logistic 
chain, making the EU logistics more efficient as a whole and enabling door-to-door 
service.  

671.  The  use  of  infrastructure  and  therefore  optimisation  of  capacity  could  also  be 
improved  thanks  to  services  based  on  data  exchange.  For  driverless  vehicles  and 
trains, on their part, timely access to information on physical infrastructure usage 
rules  (e.g.  traffic  rules  for  road  transport)  could  be  paramount  for  correct 
functioning. 

672. The  access  to  real-time  traffic  and  logistics  data  in  freight  transport  is  crucial  to 
ensure  smooth  flow  of  goods  across  the  European  borders  and  contribute  to 
reducing  empty  runs.  The  Galileo  Green  Lane  App  allowing  for  real  time 
visualization of congestion at the European road border crossing points proved its 
benefits  in  facilitating  cross-border  carriage  of  goods  in  the  time  of  cross-border 
traffic restrictions introduced by the Member States due to COVID-19 pandemic. 

673. Data is also key for improving road safety. Large amounts of in-vehicle data that 
are extremely valuable for traffic management, roadworthiness tests, investigation 
of crashes (particularly useful in terms of road safety for those resulting in fatality 

420 

https://joinup.ec.europa.eu/collection/nifo-national-interoperability-framework-observatory/eif-european-interoperability-

framework-0  

https://ec.europa.eu/isa2/shaping-future-interoperability-policy_en 

160 

 
                                                      
or serious injury, and in the longer run, also for the analysis of incidents and “near 
misses”) are already  generated in  all recent  vehicle models, and volumes  of such 
data are set to increase with higher levels of automation.  

674. Data  is  key  for  improving  aviation  safety.  Based  on  EU  research  and  TEN-T 
programs, EASA launched the initiative Data4Safety, for secured identification of 
anomalies and potential incidents precursors by analysing operational data from the 
operators that voluntary participate in the initiative. 

675. To  take  advantage  of  the  opportunities  presented  by  the  data  economy,  several 
modal  and  multimodal  rules  have  already  been  put  in  place,  though  challenges 
remain.     

676. The  Intelligent  Transport  Systems  Directive  and  four  of 

its  Delegated 
Regulations421 mandate the creation of National Access  Points  (NAP) as a  single 
point  of  access  for  users  to  the  ITS  data  to  facilitate  access,  easy  exchange  and 
reuse  of  transport  data  (multimodal,  road  safety-related,  safe  and  secure  parking, 
real-time  traffic  and  travel  data).  Since  the  adoption  of  the  delegated  regulations, 
National  Access  Points422  have  been  established  in  most  Member  States  and 
although  implementation  is  not  yet  complete,  the  developments  represent 
significant progress in setting up an EU backbone infrastructure for ITS data.423 

677. Those early stages of implementation made it already apparent that Member States 
are faced with common challenges and are looking for common solutions through 
working  further  together.  Yet,  currently  there  is  no  place  where  NAPs  operators 
and  National  Bodies/competent  authorities  can  work  together  on  common  issues 
related to the development, operation and evolution of NAPs or on new challenges 
such as e.g. data collection activities and negotiations with private data providers 
and/or global players. Therefore, as announced in the European strategy for data in 
the  Commission  will  establish  a  stronger  coordination 
February  2019, 
mechanism  to  federate  the  National  Access  Points  established  under  the  ITS 
Directive  and  contribute  to  the  development  of  the  common  European  mobility 
data space. 

678. Also,  although  NAPs  allow  data  to  be  shared,  the  usage  of  the  data  provided  by 
them is still relatively low, partly due to the fact that they have been created only 
recently. The services related to the exchange of static road attribute data used for 
updating digital maps are an exception, progressing well but in need to expand to 
local  levels.  For  the  multimodal  information  services  a  lot  of  static  data  (such  as 
schedules and basic fares for all transport modes) has also become more accessible. 
Still, the accessibility of dynamic data (e.g. real-time information on disruption and 
delays, dynamic fares and seat availability) has been left to discretion of Member 
States making it difficult for service providers to have access to them.     

679. Despite the legislation in place, reluctance to share data continues to be a limiting 
factor.  This  is  due  to  issues  of  lack  of  trust,  high  expected  costs  and  unclear 
benefits  for those providing the data.424 Also, the quality of safety-related data is 
not yet optimal. Last but not least, the data layers (e.g. road and multimodal data, 

421  Directive  (EU)  2010/40  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  on  the  framework  for  the  deployment  of  Intelligent 
Transport Systems in the field of road transport and for interfaces with other modes of transport and its four delegated Regulations: 
(EU)  885/2013  (provision  of  information  services  for  safe  and  secure  parking  places  for  lorries  and  commercial  vehicles);  (EU) 
886/2013 (data and procedures for the provision, where possible, of road safety-related minimum universal traffic information free 
of charge to users); (EU) 962/2015 (the provision of EU-wide real-time traffic information services); (EU) 1926/2017 (the provision 
of EU-wide Multimodal Travel Information Services).  
422 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/its/road/action_plan/nap_en  
423 SWD(2019) 368 final Ex post evaluation of the Intelligent Transport Systems Directive 2010/40/EU  
424 Ibid. 

161 

 
                                                      
traffic and travel data) are not yet structured and coordinated well enough and tools 
allowing effective accessibility, exchanging and data collection are missing.  

680. Similarly, through-ticketing for railway journeys, allowing passengers to purchase 
one ticket covering multiple operators and networks, is not systematically available 
in  the  European  Single  Railway  Area.  Technical  preconditions  for  the  issuing  of 
through-tickets  are  met,  inter  alia  through  TAP  TSI  and  industry  initiatives,  but 
underlying  commercial  agreements  between  railway  undertakings  and  between 
railway  undertakings  and  ticket  vendors  are  lagging  behind.  The  same  is  true  for 
multi-modal ticketing. 

681. Further  progress  is  also  needed  to  develop  comprehensive  digital  solutions  to 
facilitate effective management of multimodal transport flows. At the moment, 
operators are often requested to report information on cargo on board several times 
to several authorities, and the potential of the re-use of data is not fully exploited. 
Legal  acts  introducing  sectoral  reporting  obligations  for  maritime  transport  (such 
as health, border controls, customs, transport) have been developed in an isolated 
manner so transport operators have to deal with a patchwork of processes and data 
requirements. 

682. The implementation of the Maritime Single Window Regulation and Regulation on 
Electronic  Freight  Transport  Information425,  covering  a  major  part  of  business  to 
government data exchange will take place in coming 5 years until 2025.  

683. The European Maritime Single Window environment, once fully implemented, 
will  guarantee  harmonised  submission  and  reuse  of  data  under  ship  related 
reporting  obligations  for  all  EU  port  calls  through  national  single  windows. 
Furthermore,  the  EU  Customs  Union  is  already  equipped  with  several  EU-wide 
(trans-EU)  IT  systems  and  a  diversity  of  national  systems  and  a  diversity  of 
national  systems.  Harmonisation  of  processes  and  data  in  the  area  of  customs  is 
ongoing. In addition, further legal work is needed to harmonise different sectorial 
data requirements.  

684. For cargo documentation, the application of the Regulation on Electronic Freight 
Transport Information426 (eFTI) as of 2025 is expected to allow industry to cut 
administrative  costs  for  the  equivalent  of  75-102  million  work  hours  yearly, 
leading  to  overall  savings  between  EUR  20  and  EUR  27  billion  until  2040427. 
Paper  sheets  for  the  equivalent  of  up  to  900.000  trees  annually  would  also  be 
saved,  and  better  integration  of  transport  information  flows  across  the  different 
transport modes should facilitate efficient multimodality, with positive impacts on 
emissions  reduction.  However, 
the  regulation  covers  only  cargo  related 
information,  while  the  other  documentation  required  for  transportation,  related  to 
vehicles  and  drivers,  is  handled  by  a  number  of  separate  systems. For  full  user 
benefits, the eFTI data sharing environment should be in the future interlinked with 
the systems handling vehicle and driver data, by providing for their interoperability 
and  interconnectivity. Further  interconnectivity  should  also  be  explored  with  the 
EU e-customs and maritime single window environments. 

685. For  the  inland  waterways,  the  introduction  of  harmonised  River  Information 

Services (RIS) supports the sector’s digitalisation progress.  

425 COM(2018) 279 - 2018/0140/COD 
426 COM(2018) 279 - 2018/0140/COD 
427Impact 
assessment 
lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:810e3b10-59bb-11e8-ab41-01aa75ed71a1.0001.02/DOC_1&format=PDF 

accompanying 

Information 

electronic 

Transport 

Freight 

Regulation, 

https://eur-

162 

 
                                                      
686. However,  there  are  still  areas,  in  particular  in  road  transport,  where  digital 

exchange of information is not yet universally accepted.  

687. Despite progress made across different modes (with respective challenges, the real 
data economy in the transport sector has not yet been realised due to the lack of a 
well-functioning data ecosystem for the transport sector as a whole (beyond mere 
reporting  and  business-to-administration  data  exchange).  Existing  data  is  not 
sufficiently  shared  neither  within  nor  across  modes,  due  to  different  standards, 
habits, lack of trust, commercial sensitivities and, in certain cases, data ownership 
concerns. Data availability and willingness to share is hampered by the absence of 
a  ‘trusted  environment  for  data  sharing’  across  mobility  sectors  where  transport 
operators,  users,  infrastructure  managers,  public  authorities,  agencies,  and  other 
relevant  stakeholders  can  easily  connect  and  exchange  data  in  a  secure  and 
interoperable way.  

688. For  example,  in  case  of  EU-wide  multimodal  ticketing  and  payment  systems 
distribution of relevant data (e.g. on fares) is vital for those services. But currently, 
transport  service  providers  can  exclude  third  parties  from  the  further  use  of  their 
data. 428 A single booking for a door-to-door multimodal delivery, with options for 
a time of the delivery, cost and its environmental impact, is not yet possible either. 
Harmonised  real-time  multimodal  cargo,  carrier  and  traffic  information  together 
with  interoperable optimisation tools would facilitate the dynamic and automated 
re-routing  of  cargo,  thus,  constantly  ensuring  the  optimal  match  with  the  set 
conditions. 

689. Many  public  and  private  sector  organisations  have  already  platforms  in  place 
facilitating  data  sharing  in  support  of  business  and  legal  compliance  processes. 
However, sharing information on a more universal basis requires interoperability, a 
trusted  and  secure  environment,  harmonised  procedures  and  data  models.  The 
Digital Transport and Logistics Forum (DTLF) will facilitate the access to data 
through  developing  solutions  for  interconnecting  existing  sources  of  information 
and data platforms and defining minimum  service levels.  It  supports not  only the 
implementation of the Regulation on Electronic Freight Transport Information for 
business  to  administration  data  exchange,  but  aims  at  establishing  a  technical, 
organisational and legal framework and governance structure for cost-effective and 
secured business to business data exchange.  

690. Clear  and  transparent  rules  on  data  sharing  within  and  across  modes  are  also 
necessary to prevent a potentially distorting situations, in which the incumbent or a 
single platform dictates transport conditions.  In the current  set-up a few actors in 
the  value  chain  might  have  a  near  monopoly  on  certain  types  of  key  data  sets 
limiting  the  innovation  capacity  of  other  actors  as  well  as  the  potential  for  new 
entrants.     

691. An example of this is when vehicle manufacturers or digital platforms owners have 
a privileged access to car data and to vehicle resources, proposing services directly 
to  the  driver  and  not  allowing  for  fair  competition  between  service  providers. 
Similar  for  mobility  platforms,  ticketing  and  payments  systems,  where  main 
operators are reluctant to give access to their data.    This was also the case in air 
ticket distribution in the past and led to the adoption of the Regulation on a Code of 
Conduct  for  computerised reservation systems  (CRS)429. However, due to  market 

428 “Remaining challenges for EU-wide integrated ticketing and payment systems”, European Commission, Grimaldi Studio Legale , 
VVA , Wavestone, 2019  
429 Regulation 80/2009. The first Regulation on a CRS Code of Conduct was adopted in 1989. 

163 

 
                                                      
and technological changes, there are questions as to whether the objectives of the 
CRS Code of Conduct are still relevant, and whether it remains fit for purpose.430 

692. Urban  mobility  will  greatly  improve  if  data  exchange  models  and  cross-sectoral 
platforms  are  properly  defined  and  accommodated,  for  instance  through  good 
practices  on  implementing  interoperable  urban  digital  platforms  for  cross-domain 
data management, building capacity for creating urban digital twins and promoting 
AI-enabled urban data services. 

693. In view of the above, and in order to take advantage of the opportunities of the data 
economy  and  to  position  Europe  at  the  forefront  of  the  development  of  an 
intelligent  transport  system,  in  its  Communication  on  a  European  Strategy  for 
Data,  the  Commission  announced  it  would  create  a  common  European  mobility 
data space to facilitate access, pooling and sharing of data from existing and future 
transport and mobility databases and platforms.431  

4.2.4.2  Artificial Intelligence, 5G and other key enabling technologies  

694. This untapped data potential is also likely to hamper the possibility of reaping the 
benefits of key technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI). At the moment, 
the sector does not  have a comprehensive  roadmap that would allow it to unlock 
the full potential of AI, also beyond data issues, and manage related challenges in 
transport and logistics sectors. 

695. The Commission has so far developed a horizontal approach to AI. The AI strategy 
adopted  in  2018432  is  based  on  three  pillars:  boosting  EU  technological  and 
industrial  capacity  and  AI  uptake  across  the  economy;  preparing  for  socio-
economic  change,  and  ensuring  an  appropriate  ethical  and  legal  framework.  In 
the  Commission  also  published  a  Communication  on  AI’s 
May  2019, 
trustworthiness,  designed  to  increase  its  public  acceptance.  The  Communication 
presented  the  ethics  guidelines  and  announced  the  pilot  phase  to  refine  the 
assessment  list  that  helps  organisations  implement  these  guidelines.  433  In  the 
following  White  Paper  on  Artificial  Intelligence  -  A  European  approach  to 
excellence and trust434, the Commission further elaborated the need to  focus on a 
two-pronged  approach  in  AI:  building  an  ecosystem  of  excellence  and  an 
ecosystem of trust. 

696. Recognising the benefits of AI, the EU has funded many projects in this domain. 
The new Digital  Europe Programme will provide further funding for AI  projects, 
including for testing AI, including embodied AI, use across different sectors. With 
the  funding  of  research  and  innovation  in  AI  in  the  Horizon  Europe  and  Digital 
Europe programmes respectively, the Commission is also shaping the European AI 
landscape, in order to build it on European strengths and be in line with European 
values.  In  the  mobility  sector  several  specific  applications  already  show  high 
potential  –  e.g.  automated  driving  (which  relies  on  on-board  ability  to  combine 
planned  data  and  real-time  data  often  consisting  of  images,  to  optimise 
performances  –  including  on  energy,  and  ensure  high  level  of  safety),  predictive 
functions (of maintenance / emergencies or dysfunctions, computation of Expected 
Time of Arrival). 

430 COM(2020) 9 final 
431 COM (2020) 66 final 
432 COM(2018) 237 final 
433 COM(2019)168 final 
434 COM(2020) 65 final 

164 

 
                                                      
697. The Commission has so far developed a horizontal approach to AI. The AI strategy 
adopted  in  2018435  is  based  on  three  pillars:  boosting  EU  technological  and 
industrial  capacity  and  AI  uptake  across  the  economy;  preparing  for  socio-
economic  change,  and  ensuring  an  appropriate  ethical  and  legal  framework.  In 
May  2019, 
the  Commission  also  published  a  Communication  on  AI’s 
trustworthiness,  designed  to  increase  its  public  acceptance.  The  Communication 
presented  the  ethics  guidelines  and  announced  the  pilot  phase  to  refine  the 
assessment list that helps organisations implement these guidelines.  

698. Recognising the benefits of AI, the EU has funded many projects in this domain. 
The new Digital  Europe Programme will provide further funding for AI  projects, 
including for testing AI use across different sectors. In the mobility sector several 
specific applications already show high potential  – e.g. automated driving (which 
relies  on  on-board  ability  to  combine  planned  data  and  real-time  data  often 
consisting of images, to optimise performances – including on energy, and ensure 
high  level  of  safety),  predictive  functions  (of  maintenance  /  emergencies  or 
dysfunctions, computation of Expected Time of Arrival). 

699. In  parallel,  mode-specific  initiatives  in  the  field  of  AI  have  also  emerged. 
Eurocontrol, together with the European Commission and a wide range of partner 
organisations  set  up  a  European  Aviation  High  Level  Group  on  AI  (the  EAAI 
HLG) with the goals of advancing the understanding among aviation/ATM actors 
of AI and its potential, demystifying the topic, and helping accelerate the uptake of 
AI  in  the  aviation  sector.  The  “FLY  AI  Action  Plan”  published  in  March  2020 
provided  a  series  of  recommendations,  notably  to  create  a  federated  AI 
infrastructure  containing  historical  data  for  training  purposes  and  to  develop  AI 
applications, 
together  with  an  appropriate  governance  structure.  It  also 
recommended accelerating the deployment of AI notably in the areas of cyber and 
non-safety-critical  applications,  as  well  as  to  conduct  more  AI  research  to  help 
respond to the safety-criticality of aviation/ATM operations.436  

700. In  the  rail  sector,  AI  can  be  used  for  predictive  maintenance,  mobility 
management,  and  the  creation  of  new  smart  services.  Business  analytics  coupled 
with  Artificial  Intelligence  can  improve  the  status  and  reliability  of  rail 
components,  as  well  as  provide  reliable  transport  demand  forecasts,  therefore 
allowing the network to be used at its optimal capacity and cost-efficiency.  

701. Artificial intelligence is becoming increasingly important for the maritime industry 
as  well.  The  rise  of  automation  in  the  maritime  supply  chain  along  with  the 
demand for more autonomous shipping has led to an increase in the demand for AI. 
Predictive maintenance, intelligent scheduling, and real-time analytics, are among 
possible applications, on sea but also for inland navigation.  

702. Road  transport  is  one  of  the  sectors  where  the  automation  of  driving  assistance 
systems has most successfully been applied, and where the application of AI may 
open  up  entirely  new  possibilities  for  entering  onto  higher  level  of  vehicle 
automation, connectivity and cooperation between various road users. 

703. However, AI faces limitations and challenges like any other technology. Data is the 
foundation  of  all  AI  systems  –  quality  (including  as  regards  representativity), 
quantity, integrity and legality are important factors. It also faces challenges, such 

435 COM(2018) 237 final 
436 https://www.eurocontrol.int/publication/fly-ai-report 

165 

 
                                                      
as  the  need  to  comply  with  safety,  personal  data  protection  rules  and  to  resist 
cybersecurity risks. 

704. In  the  transport  sector  it  is  also  crucial  to  assess  if  the  introduction  of  AI  might 
create  new  safety  risks  that  are  not  taken  into  account  in  the  current  safety 
legislative  framework.  Certification  processes  in  transport  are  traditionally  based 
on  technical  specifications.  The  use  of  software  is  already  encompassed  in  them, 
but only for fully predictable outcomes, which is not the case for AI and machine 
learning, posing also additional challenges related to liability.  

705. Data and services derived from space systems, including satellite images, satellite 
navigation and satellite communications are key enablers for smart and sustainable 
transport.  Galileo  –  Europe’s  Global  Navigation  Satellite  System  (GNSS)  is 
providing enhanced quality and range of services, unaffected by strategic choices 
(being  the  only  civil  Satellite-based  Positioning,  Navigation  and  Timing  system 
worldwide).  Among  its  potential,  Galileo,  reinforced  by  a  regional  European 
Geostationary  Navigation  Overlay  Service  (EGNOS),  could  dramatically  change 
traffic management, simplify signalling and enhance its performances, leading to a 
strong  increase  in  capacity,  combining  various  transport  modes.  Galileo  is  also  a 
critical  component  for  connected  and  autonomous  driving  thanks  to  its  unique 
features  of  decimetre-level  accuracy  and  signal  and  data  authentication. 
Copernicus,  Europe’s  Earth  Observation  Programme,  is  providing  data  and 
information that help underpin the modal shift of transport in urban areas towards 
more sustainable and smart mobility. 

706. The  availability  of  adequate,  efficient  harmonised  radio  spectrum  for  critical 
applications  in  the  transport  sector  is  another  vital  enabler  for  the  successful 
digitalisation  of  the  transport  sector.  On  the  one  hand,  seamless  and  continuous 
broadband connectivity for passengers is required while on-board of any transport 
mode  for  best  use  of  commercial  services  offered  to  users  by  Mobile  Network 
Operators.  

707. On the other hand, vehicles rely more and more on connectivity depending on the 
performance  of  the  network  while  transport  safety  cannot  be  compromised.  This 
brings about new challenges. In the case of rail, the safety critical applications are 
based  on  the  obsolete  GSM  technology  and  legacy  infrastructure,  which  is  being 
progressively  phased  out.  The  phase  in  of  a  new  technology,  based  on  5G,  will 
require a migration before the final decommissioning of the existing radio system. 
However, the current spectrum allocation imposes constraints for the co-existence 
of the two systems and technological solutions causing a capacity challenge.  

708. 5G itself is expected to become a major enabler for the digitalisation of transport 
and  the  emergence  of  new  mobility  solutions  in  Europe.  It  will  come  with  high 
reliability, mission critical services, and a distributed and flexible architecture. To 
reap its benefits, comprehensive coverage of the whole transport network and the 
continuity and evolution of existing services are needed.  

4.3  The challenge of making the transport sector more resilient 

709. In order to make the twin transition to sustainable and smart mobility and transport 
truly  successful  and  the  whole  system  more  resilient,  in  addition  to  specific 
measures to increase the sector’s crisis resilience, there is need to boost investment, 
upgrade  EU  transport  infrastructure  and  modernise  fleets,  while  deepening  the 
166 

 
 
Single  Market,  and  providing  fair  social  conditions  for  workers  and  making 
mobility just and fair for users. All while ensuring that safety and security remain 
paramount. 

4.3.1  Crisis resilience and management 

710. As  described  in  section  2,  the  transport  sector  has  been  heavily  hit  by  the 
pandemic. From the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Commission has been 
working with Member States to ensure economic continuity and to ease the shock, 
notably  by  maintaining  the  flow  of  freight,  preserving  the  supply  chains,  and 
securing essential travel, as well as ensuring the functioning of the Single Market 
and maintaining the highest levels of transport safety and security.  

711. The  COVID-19  pandemic  has  shown  that  it  is  important  to  have  adequate  crisis 
management and support structures in place that can be quickly activated as needed 
and that provide a well-defined, predictable and reliable framework for reacting to 
crises  that affect  the transport sector. Such a framework could  comprise  different 
components dealing with the various challenges that the transport sector could face 
in the case of various shocks. Efficient and effective joint coordination structures 
and mechanisms at EU-level could ensure a common response and actions that are 
harmonised,  complimentary  and  in  full  respect  of  the  acquis  and  basic  EU 
principles.  In  the  Council  conclusions  of  October  2020437,  the  Council  asked  the 
Commission  to  swiftly  draw  up  a  pandemic  and  other  major  crisis  contingency 
plan for the European freight transport sector and to extend, where appropriate, the 
contingency plan to passenger transport and transport in general. The Council also 
stressed  that  in  major  crisis  situations,  the  TEN-T  corridors  and  other  essential 
cross-border connections should be kept operational.  

712. The  COVID-19  pandemic  has  in  particular  highlighted  the  importance  of 
maintaining  essential  transport  services  at  all  times.  In  that  regard  measures  are 
needed to protect the survivability and business continuity of the sector, including 
clear and non-discriminatory rules on financial support.  

713. The temporary State aid framework set up during the COVID-19 pandemic allows 
Member  States  to  support  the  transport  sector  during  the  crisis  by  providing 
emergency liquidity. At the same time, the integrity of the Single Market and level 
playing field for operators must be maintained, including by ensuring that there is 
no  discrimination  among  incumbents  and  new  market  entrants,  and  that  no  new 
barriers for competition are introduced.  

714. Furthermore,  regulatory  and  technical  specifications  and  standards  are  needed  in 
crises  situations  in  order  to  ensure  the  functioning  of  the  transport  system,  for 
instance through health and sanitary protocols. The relevant components could be 
developed on the basis of the work done and lessons learned during the COVID-19 
pandemic as well as previous relevant crisis situations. 

715.  The pandemic has proven that the European transport system is fragile and further 
efforts are needed based on the lessons learnt through the actions taken during the 
crisis.  In  particular  as  regards  the  impacts  of  climate  change,  from  road  and  rail 
networks  to  ports,  airports  and  inland  waterways,  critical  transport  resources  are 
facing unprecedented threats from a climate, which is already changing. The need 

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/10/23/pandemic-contingency-plan-for-freight-transport-council-

437 
adopts-conclusions/ 

167 

 
                                                      
for  climate-proofing  has  become  an  essential  consideration  and  priority  for  the 
transport sector. 

716. The  European  Green  Deal  notes  –  in  the  context  of  a  new,  more  ambitious  EU 
strategy  on  adaptation  to  climate  change  –  that  climate  change  will  continue  to 
create significant stress in Europe in spite of the mitigation efforts.  

717. Flooding from high precipitation and extreme storms, in possible association with 
related  impacts  including  landslides  and  slope  failures,  will  bring  major  risks 
across  the  region  for  all  modes  of  transport  (road  -  and  airport  -  infrastructure, 
railway  and  inland  waterways).  At  the  same  time  there  is  also  greater  risk  of 
increased water scarcity and low water levels in our waterways.  

718. Rising  sea  levels  and  greater  wave  activity  causing  erosion  put  vital  coastal 
transport infrastructure (i.e. coastal roads, railways, seaports and  airports) at  risk. 
Over 60% of EU seaports438 may be under high inundation risk by 2100, causing 
disruptions to operations and damages to port infrastructure and vessels, especially 
along the North  Sea coast,  where the traffic of over 500 ports accounts for up to 
15% of the world’s cargo transport.  

719. Rising  temperatures  linked  to  increased  heatwaves  and  drier  and  hotter  summers 
will affect  roads and railways, where pavement damage and damage to  track and 
electricity  catenary,  damages  to  bridges  and  increased  landslides  in  mountainous 
areas are among key risks. Areas considered particularly worthy of more detailed 
analysis  include  roads  in  Southern  Europe  (South-Eastern  France,  Italy,  Western 
Balkans,  Portugal,  Spain,  Greece  and  Turkey)  as  well  as  in  Nordic  countries 
(Norway, Sweden and Finland). Climate proofing not only individual infrastructure 
investment  projects,  but  also  existing  transport  corridors,  networks  and  systems 
will be increasingly relevant, as the majority of the existing infrastructure is built 
for the past climatic conditions439. 

720. Strengthening  the  efforts  on  climate-proofing,  resilience  building,  prevention  and 
preparedness  is  crucial.  Work  on  climate  adaptation  should  continue  to  influence 
public  and  private  investments,  including  on  nature-based  solutions.  It  will  be 
important  to  ensure  that  across  the  EU,  investors,  insurers,  businesses,  cities  and 
citizens  are  able  to  access  data  and  to  develop  instruments  to  integrate  climate 
change into their risk management practices.  

the 

International  Contingency  Management  Handbook  and 

721. The  capacity  of  infrastructure  is  also  closely  linked  to  the  resilience  of 
infrastructure  in  the  case  of  disruptions.  For  rail,  to  improve  the  international 
contingency management, European rail infrastructure managers have unanimously 
its 
approved 
implementation  from  timetable  period  2019.  The  purpose  of  the  handbook  is  to 
define  standardised  procedures  that  allow  continuation  of  freight  and  passenger 
traffic flows at the highest possible level despite an international disruption and to 
assure  transparency  of  the  status  of  the  disruption  and  its  impact  on  traffic  flows 
for all relevant stakeholders across Europe. The Commission is following up on its 
implementation.  However,  recent  incidents  in  which  the  Handbook  has  been 
applied  have  shown  that  there  are  limits  to  improving  the  resilience  of  railway 

https://www.unece.org/info/media/presscurrent-press-h/transport/2020/unece-study-maps-transport-infrastructure-at-

438UNECE: 
high-risk-due-to-climate-change-in-pan-european-region-and-canada/doc.html 
439 For example:  According to the European Federation of  Inland Ports (EFIP) and Inland Navigation Europe (INE) (part of their 
submission for the open public consultation on the Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy) in 2018 the prolonged low water 
levels of the Rhine resulted in a decrease of Germany’s industrial production by EUR 5 billion. 

168 

 
                                                      
networks via operational measures. In certain cases, infrastructure investments will 
be unavoidable to create additional possibilities for rerouting traffic. 

722. In  addition,  ensuring  the  resilience  of  transport  and  mobility  against  various 
security  threats  is  essential.  For  example,  as  all  transport  modes  become 
increasingly technology-dependent,  cyberattacks  can have  a paralysing  impact  on 
our economy and could potentially cause accidents and casualties. 

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Commission took a number440 of steps 
at EU level relevant for the transport sector, which can be divided into two broad 
categories:  

1. Measures to help Member States manage the crisis at the borders, enabling new 
health measures to be introduced while sustaining supply chains and availability of 
goods and essential services across the EU: 

issued Guidelines for border management measures to protect health and ensure 

- 
the availability of goods and essential services (16 March)441; 

- 
invited Member States to  designate the relevant  internal  border-crossing  points 
of  the  TEN-T  network  as  well  as  additional  major  border-crossing  points  to  the 
extent necessary, as “green lane” border crossings; and urged Member States to set 
up safe passage transit corridors along the entire TEN-T network (23 March)442; 

-  recommended the suspension of all types of driving restrictions in place (week-
end  bans,  night  bans,  sectoral  bans,  etc.)  for  freight  transport  and  asked  Member 
States to consider the urgent suspension of the ban on transport workers spending 
rest periods in vehicle cabins (23 March)443; 

-  asked  Member  States  for  a  better  tailored  application  of  rules  such  as  travel 
restrictions, visa and other requirements for transport workers (23 March)444; 

- 

issued guidelines to facilitate air cargo operations (26 March)445; 

-  presented practical guidance to ensure the free movement of critical workers (30 
March)446;  

including 

sanitary  advice, 

-  adopted  guidance  on  repatriating  cruise  ship  passengers  and  protecting  ship 
for  crew  changes, 
crews, 
disembarking, and repatriation for seafarers and passengers (8 April)447; and 
-  adopted  a  package  of  measures  to  support  the  transport  sector448  solving 
operational  problems,  removing  administrative  burdens,  and  increasing  regulatory 
flexibility (29 April)449.  

recommendations 

440  The  text  box  provides  an  illustrative,  non-exhaustive  list  of  measures  taken.  The  full  overview  of  activities  can  be  found  at: 
https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response_en#euactions   
441    C(2020) 1753 final, , OJ C 86I, 16.3.2020, p.1. 
442    C(2020) 1897 final, OJ C 96I, 24.3.2020, p.1. 
443    C(2020) 1897 final, OJ C 96I, 24.3.2020, p.1. 
444    C(2020) 1897 final, OJ C 96I, 24.3.2020, p.1. 
445    C(2020) 2010 final, OJ C 100I, 27.3.2020, p.1. 
446    C(2020) 2051 final, OJ C 102, 30.3.2020, p.12. 
447 C(2020) 3100 final, OJ C 119, 14.4.2020, p. 1. 
448 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/media/news/2020-04-29-coronavirus-package-measures-support-transport-sector_en 
449  Apart  from  aviation  (COM  (2020)  178  final),  the  package  also  included  an  amendment  to  the  regulation  on  port  charges, 
providing Member States and port authorities the flexibility to defer, reduce or lift port infrastructure charges for port users. For rail, 
the  Commission  proposed  to  extend  the  deadline  by  which  some  Member  States  must  transpose  EU  law  on  rail  safety  and 
interoperability  by  three  months.  For  road  transport,  the  package  included  the  extension  of  several  licences  and  authorisations. 
Separately, at the request of several Member States, the Commission authorised derogations from driving and rest times for drivers 
until end of May. 

169 

 
 
                                                      
-  upgraded  the  Green  Lane  approach  to  ensure  that  multi-modal  transport  works 
effectively  in  areas  including  rail  and  waterborne  freight  and  air  cargo,  and 
provides additional guidance to facilitate application in practice, on issues such as 
electronic documentation, and availability of rest and refuelling points450 

The Commission services have also: 

-  coordinated  with  Member  States  the  establishment  of  single  national  contact 
points  for  COVID-19-related  transport  issues  and  established  a  dedicated  EU 
platform (18 March)451;  

-  provided  practical  guidance  as  regards  the  implementation  of  temporary 
derogations from the general rules on driving and rest times in the road sector (18 
March) 452;  

- 
informed  Member  States  on  Commission  services’  view  regarding  inability  to 
comply with certain provisions of legislation in relation to licences, certificates and 
inspections (26 March)453;  

2. Measures to help relieve financial and operational pressures on the sector:  

-  prepared  measures  to  maintain  the  flow  of  liquidity  to  the  economy,  and  to 
alleviate  the  employment  impact  for  hardest  hit  sectors,  including  through  the 
Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative (13 March)454;     
-  put forward a dedicated investment initiative (13 March)455; 
-  made a legislative proposal on the protection of historical rights on airport slots 
(13 March)456;  

-  made a legislative proposal to make certain rules of the Air Services Regulation 
more flexible for airlines, Member States and the Commission in view of COVID-
19 pandemic457 

-  adopted  the  Communication  “Temporary  Framework  for  State  aid  measures  to 
support the economy in the current COVID-19 outbreak”458 (19 March, 3 April, 8 
May, 29 June and 13 October for its amended version); 

-  proposed the activation of the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth 
Pact (20 March)459; 

450 COM(2020) 685 final 
451 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/coronavirus-response_en 
452    https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/derogation_request_art14.docx. The Commission published guidance to help 
Member  States  to  prepare  the  derogations  to  the  rules  on  driving  and  rest  time.  While  providing  flexibility  to  drivers  and  road 
operators  to  carry  out  transport  operations,  these  derogations  should  be  proportionate  and  avoid  jeopardizing  road  safety  and 
minimum working conditions for drivers.  
453  https://ec.europa.eu/transport/news/2020-03-27-exceptional-measures-inability-comply-legislation_en.  The  information  note  of 
the  Commission  services  highlighted  that  the  measures  taken  by  Member  States  in  the  area  of  licences  and  certificates  should 
remain  proportionate  and  sufficiently  short,  such  as  three  months,  so  as  to  avoid  that  they  benefit  situations  well  after  the 
termination of public measures intended to contain the epidemic.  
454 COM(2020) 112 final 
455 COM(2020) 113 final 
456 COM(2020)0827 final which led to the adoption of Regulation (EU) 2020/459 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 
30 March 2020 amending Council Regulation (EEC) No 95/93 on common rules for the allocation of slots at Community  airports, 
OJ L 99, 31.3.2020, p. 1.  
457 COM(2020) 178 final which led to the adoption of Regulation (EU) 2020/696 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 
25 May 2020 amending Regulation (EC) No 1008/2008 on common rules for the operation of air services in the Community in view 
of the COVID-19 pandemic, OJ L 165, 27.5.2020, p. 1–6. 
458 
https://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/what_is_new/TF_consolidated_version_amended_3_april_8_may_29_june_and_13_oct_
2020_en.pdf  
459 COM(2020) 123 final 

C(2020)1863 

20.3.2020, 

final, 

091I 

p.1. 

OJ 

of 

C 

, 

170 

 
                                                      
issued interpretative guidelines on EU passenger rights regulations in the context 

- 
of the developing situation with COVID-19 on (18 March)460; 

-  proposed  to  establish  a  European  instrument  for  temporary  support  to  mitigate 
unemployment  risks 
the  COVID-19 
outbreak461; 

in  an  emergency  (SURE)  following 

- 
issued  guidance  on  State  aid  rules  and  public  service  obligation  rules  in  air, 
maritime  and  land  transport  in  the  support  of  the  transport  sector  during  the 
COVID-19 pandemic and the recovery phase (19 and 26 May) 462; 

-  proposed  a  Regulation  establishing  measures  for  a  sustainable  rail  market  in 
view of the COVID-19 pandemic (19 June)463 regarding charging. 

Following  the  immediate  crisis  response  measures,  and  taking  into  account  that 
with  the  improvement  of  the  epidemiological  situation  Member  States  started 
lifting  restrictions  on  travel,  on  13  May  the  Commission  adopted  a  package  of 
guidelines and recommendations on restoring tourism and transport464.  

Building on the Joint European Roadmap, this proposal aimed to help EU countries 
in guiding them towards lifting travel restrictions, safely restoring transport services 
and resuming tourism activities. This package included in particular guidelines on 
the  progressive  restoration  of  transport  services  and  connectivity,  setting  out 
general  principles  and  mode-specific  recommendations  for  the  safe  and  gradual 
restoration of passenger transport by air, rail, road and waterways. The guidelines 
included  a  series  of  recommendations  on  the  need  to  limit  contact  between 
passengers and transport workers, and passengers themselves, reducing the density 
of  passengers  where  feasible,        and  on the  use  of  personal  protective  equipment, 
such as face masks, and on adequate protocols in case passengers present COVID-
19  symptoms.  The  package  also  included  a  recommendation  which  aims  to  make 
travel  vouchers  an  attractive  alternative  to  cash  reimbursement  for  consumers465. 
The  guidelines  were  complemented  by  specific  guidelines  issued  by  EASA  for 
aviation466, ERA for railways467 and EMSA for cruises468 in May and July 2020. 

As  a  follow-up  to  the  package  of  13  May  2020,  the  Commission  has  continued 
intensive coordination efforts with Member States to facilitate the implementation 
of  the  guidelines  and  recommendations,  including  by  daily  contacts  through  the 
network  of  national  transport  contact  points  for  transport  and  exchanges  in  the 
context of the EU Integrated Political Crisis Response (IPCR).  

Moreover, on 26 May, the European Commission has put forward its proposal for a 
major recovery plan. To ensure the recovery is sustainable, even, inclusive and fair 
for  all  Member  States,  the  European  Commission  proposed  to  create  a  new 
recovery  instrument,  Next  Generation  EU,  embedded  within  a  powerful,  modern 
and revamped long-term EU budget.  

460 C(2020) 1830 final, OJ C 89I, 18.3.2020, p.1. 
461 COM(2020) 139 final 
462 https://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/what_is_new/air_transport_overview_sa_rules_during_coronavirus.pdf 
https://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/what_is_new/maritime_transport_overview_sa_rules_during_coronavirus.pdf 
https://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/what_is_new/land_transport_overview_rules_during_coronavirus.pdf 
463 COM(2020) 260 final 
464 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_854 
465 Commission Recommendation (EU) 2020/648 of 13 May 2020 on vouchers offered to passengers and travellers as an alternative 
to reimbursement for cancelled package travel and transport services in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, OJ L 151, 
14.5.2020, p. 10.  
466https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/EASA-ECDC_COVID-
19_Operational%20guidelines%20for%20management%20of%20passengers_v2.pdf 
467 https://www.era.europa.eu/sites/default/files/events-news/docs/covid-19_rail_protocol_en.pdf 
468 https://emsa.europa.eu/emsa-documents/latest/download/6376/3978/23.html 

171 

 
                                                      
At the beginning of July, a dedicated COVID-19 SUMP Practitioner Briefing was 
published, focusing on green recovery in urban mobility. It takes stock of SUMP-
related issues and all the good practices that cities have  been introducing and still 
plan  to  implement  as  restrictions  ease.  It  also  includes  lessons  learned  for 
immediate, mid-term and longer-term  actions that European cities and regions  are 
developing.469 

Finally,  on  4  September,  the  Commission  adopted  a  proposal  for  a  Council 
Recommendation to ensure that any measures taken by Member States that restrict 
free  movement  due  to  the  coronavirus  pandemic  are  coordinated  and  clearly 
communicated at the EU level. 

4.3.1.1  Governance  

723. In  line  with  the  Commission's  dedication  to  Better  Regulation,  there  is  need  to 
significantly reduce the administrative burden for Member States, the Commission 
and other EU institutions. Current planning and reporting requirements  - both for 
the Commission and Member States - are dispersed across a wide range of separate 
pieces of legislation adopted at different points in time. This has sometimes led to 
redundancy,  incoherence,  overlaps  and  lack  of  integration  between  the  transport 
areas  and  modes.  It  makes  effective  response  to  crisis  and  adequate  contingency 
planning very difficult. 

724. In  order  to  comply  with  requirements  laid  down  in  EU  transport  legislation,  EU 
Member States need to  fulfil  numerous reporting obligations. Substantively, such 
obligations  serve  different  purposes,  as  Member  States  report  to  the  Commission 
for monitoring purposes, on implementation achievements or submit progress and 
activity reports to name just a few. Typically, these requirements are laid down in 
specific  legal  acts  establishing  an  obligation  to  comply  with  highly  specialized 
requirements each. 

725. Often, the reporting periods covered are fixed to one or two years respectively, as 
defined  by  the  legal  act  establishing  the  obligation470.  Yet,  reporting  obligations 
may also initially rest dormant and only be triggered by certain events471.  

726. Reporting  requirements  vary  in  their  demand  for  execution.  Usually,  they  are 
template-based,  employing  a  questionnaire  method  and  are  built  on  pre-defined 
indicators472.  

727. Overall, different reporting schemes might bear effectiveness and efficiency gaps. 
The  Commission  has  already  taken  effort  to  map  the  entire  EU  legislative  stock 
looking to identify burdens, gaps and inefficient or ineffective measures in REFIT 
(Regulatory  Fitness  and  Performance  Programme473).  With  regard  to  reporting 
obligations  there  remains  potential  for  further  analysis.  Streamlining  all  different 
Member  States  reporting  requirements  should  bear  potential  to  see  how 
administrative  burdens  could  be  alleviated  and  strive  to  improving  governance 
while focusing on EU added value.  

469 https://www.eltis.org/sites/default/files/covid-19_sumppractitionersbriefing_final.pdf 
470  A  reporting  obligation  occurring  every  two  years  can  be  seen,  for  example  in  Article  26  (1)  in  the  Regulation  to  pursue  the 
occupation of road transport operator (Regulation (EC) No. 1071/2009). 
471 As an example, this can be seen in Art. 8 (2) of the Flag State directive (Directive 2009/21/EC). 
472  This,  for  example,  can  be  seen  in  the  waterborne  sector  in  Art.  22  EMSW  Regulation  (Regulation  EU  2019/1239),  or  as 
implemented  in  the  rail  sector  in  the  Annex  to  the  Commission  Implementing  Regulation  on  the  reporting  obligations  of  the 
Member States in the framework of rail market monitoring (Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2015/1100). 
473 SWD(2013) 401 

172 

 
                                                      
728. Therefore  there  appears  to  be  a  need  to  consolidate  the  existing  patchwork  of 
national  reporting  obligations  from  the  main  pieces  of  EU  legislation  across 
transport by replacing different  existing sectorial  reports with  one comprehensive 
integrated  plan  and  report.  This  could  significantly  simplify  Member  States' 
obligations:  it  could  reduce,  align  and  update  such  requirements,  and  remove 
existing  duplications.  An  appropriate  transport  governance  framework,  could 
enable  establishing  and  tracking  progress  of  comparable  national  transport  plans 
among Member States. 

729. For  such  a  framework  to  be  fully  effective,  and  in  order  to  be  able  to  monitor 
progress  to  the  achievements  of  European  objectives,  it  is  needed  to  improve  the 
coverage and level of details of transport statistics. On some aspects, the persistent 
lack  of  comparable  and  complete  transport  data  and  statistics  needs  to  be 
addressed.  

730. The  biggest  gap  in  European  transport  statistics  remains  in  the  passenger 
mobility  area.  An  estimated  83%  of  mobility  in  Europe  by  private  cars,  buses, 
urban  transport  and  other  modes  (including  active  ones,  such  as  cycling)  is 
currently not covered by official European statistics or not sufficiently detailed to 
enable  the  right  policy  decisions.  The  political  demand  for  passenger  mobility 
statistics  is  increasing,  especially  considering  the  ongoing  changes  in  mobility 
patterns  due  to  technology  developments  (alternative  fuelled  vehicles,  shared 
mobility,  mobility  as  a  service,  multimodality,  intelligent  transport  systems,  and 
big  data).  Harmonised  statistics  on  passenger  mobility  are  collected  on  voluntary 
basis,  which  results  in  low  country  coverage.  Without  better  regulated  data 
collection, not much use can be made of these.  

731. Another  gap  in  the  existing  official  statistics  concerns  the  statistics  on 
infrastructure, vehicle stock and traffic volumes which are currently collected on a 
voluntary basis and therefore not available for all countries (especially concerning 
information on alternative fuel infrastructure and vehicles). 

732. There  is  also  a  lack  of  data  and  comparison  between  EU  countries  on  transport 
prices  and  public  and  private  investments  in  transport  infrastructure,  including 
recharging  and  refuelling  infrastructure,  as  well  as  investments  in  sustainable 
public transport474.  

733. Another  important  aspect  is  the  need  to  align  the  existing  methodologies  across 
modes and between transport and energy statistics, in particular for data on energy 
consumption in transport. This would allow to have comparable indicators across 
modes and report transport energy intensities for the passenger and freight sectors, 
and  to  analyse  their  evolution  over  time,  which  is  not  possible  based  on  existing 
European statistics. 

734. As far as urban mobility data is concerned, there is no legal requirement at the EU 
level to systematically collect relevant local/urban transport data, resulting in very 
different approaches across Member States. As a consequence, the development of 
common  policy  initiatives  helping  to  manage  urban  mobility  challenges  is 
hindered.  As  cities  and  urban  areas  continue  to  develop  Sustainable  Urban 
Mobility Plans (SUMPs) and work towards EU policy goals, it is important for this 
progress to be documented to ensure that such achievements become visible. The 
Commission has therefore developed, through a 2-year pilot project with almost 50 

474  The  State  aid  Scoreboard  in the  railway  sector  highlights  the  heterogeneity  of  Member  States’  efforts  to  accurately  report  the 
level of public financing in that sector.   
https://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/scoreboard/index_en.html 

173 

 
                                                      
cities,  a  first  set  of  indicators  that  support  cities  to  perform  a  standardised 
evaluation of their mobility system and to measure improvements that result from 
new mobility practices or policies475.  

735. The  issue  of  lack  of  urban  mobility  data  was  also  recognised  by  the  Court  of 
Auditors476  that,  in  its  2020  report  on  EU  urban  mobility  policy  and  funding 
recommended to the Commission, among others, to ‘propose legislation requiring 
Member States to collect and submit regularly relevant data on urban mobility and 
on the adoption of SUMPs in all EU urban nodes of the core and comprehensive 
TEN-T networks, including their surrounding areas. 

736.  In  November  2019,  the  Commission  launched  a  study  on  new  mobility  patterns. 
The  study  aims  at  creating  an  extensive  data  collection  covering  the  areas  of 
passenger mobility, urban logistics, fleet composition, transport activity and traffic 
for the EU Member States. 

4.3.2  Infrastructure and investment  

737. Beyond  enabling  a  well-functioning  internal  market,  transport  infrastructure 
across  the  European  Union  is  a  key  element  to  ensure  connectivity,  sustainable 
economic growth and cohesion among Member States.  

738. Although  significant  progress  has  been  made  to  develop  the  European  transport 
network,  our  infrastructure  remains  a  network  of  the  20th  century,  is  not  fully 
connected  and interoperable and often in  worsening condition  in  terms  of quality 
and  capacity,  and  is  only  marginally  equipped  with  the  sustainable  and  smart 
solutions that would be needed to allow climate-neutral mobility, due to the lack of 
adequate  public  and  private  investment  over  the  last  decades  and  excessive  time 
needed to renovate and upgrade.  

739. The  availability  and  quality  of  transport  infrastructure  varies  between  Member 
States and is relatively low in the eastern part of the EU. It is negatively affected 
by shrinking resources dedicated to upgrade and maintenance as well as the lack of 
resilience  to  climate  change  and  weather  extremes.  Since  the  previous  global 
economic  crisis,  the  EU  has  been  suffering  from  low  levels  of  investment  in 
transport infrastructure. This has held back the modernisation of the EU's transport 
system.477  Government  investment  continues  to  remain  low  as  a  share  of  GDP  in 
the  EU,  levelling  out  at  2.7%  in  2016,  the  lowest  level  in  20  years478.  Generally, 
investment in infrastructure has halted its decline, but it is still at 20% below pre-
crisis  levels,  thus  slowing  economic  convergence.  Total  infrastructure  investment 
stands at a 15-year low of 1.6% of GDP, down from a peak of 2.2% in 2009, with 
transport  infrastructure  the  most  badly  affected.  The  decline  is  strongest  in 
countries  with  the  lowest  infrastructure  quality,  pointing  to  a  slowdown  in  the 
convergence process.479 

740. Overall, from 2009 to 2017, the EU saw a 15% decline in infrastructure investment 
activities (as a share of GDP). This decline was more pronounced in regions with 

475 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/urban/urban_mobility/sumi_en 
476  European  Court  of  Auditors,  Special  report  06/2020:  Sustainable  Urban  Mobility  in  the  EU:  No  substantial  improvement  is 
possible without Member States’ commitment 
477  European  Commission 
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/2019-transport-in-the-eu-current-trends-and-issues.pdf.  
478  European  Investment  Bank  (2019),  ‘EIB  Investment  Report  2019/2020.  Accelerating  Europe's  Transformation’. 
https://www.eib.org/en/publications/investment-report-2019  
479  European  Commission 
in 
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/2019-transport-in-the-eu-current-trends-and-issues.pdf.. 

the  European  Union 

the  European  Union 

-  Current  Trends 

-  Current  Trends 

‘Transport 

‘Transport 

Issues’. 

Issues’. 

(2019), 

(2019), 

and 

and 

in 

174 

 
                                                      
poor  infrastructure  quality,  thus  reinforcing  infrastructure  investment  gaps  and 
raising concerns about the effect not only on economic competitiveness but also on 
economic and social convergence within the EU.480 

741. In fact, infrastructure investment remains below the level before the financial crisis 
of  2008.  The  comparison  with  2008  levels  is  most  striking  for  the  countries  of 
central and eastern Europe, where current investment levels are around 35% lower 
than  before  the  crisis,  followed  by  southern  Europe  (with  30%  lower  investment 
levels).  Real  infrastructure  investment  has  surpassed  2008  levels  in  western  and 
northern  Europe,  but  even  there  investment  rates  (i.e.  investment  as  a  share  of 
GDP) lag behind their pre-crisis levels.481 

742. Despite a major progress achieved over the last decade in upgrading infrastructure 
in  cohesion  Member States, they  are still lagging behind  in terms  of connectivity 
and accessibility. Equally, limited investment in rural areas and outermost regions 
has been hampering their connectivity and accessibility as compared to urban areas 
across the EU. 

743. Analysing at regional level how many people living in a 120-kilometre radius can 
be reached within a 90-minute drive by car, a working paper from the Commission 
estimates  that  within  the  EU,  Bulgaria,  Croatia,  Poland,  Romania  and  Slovakia 
have  the  lowest  road  transport  performance,  while  Belgium  and  the  Netherlands 
score highest. The performance of Spain and Portugal, which have benefited from 
a longer period of support from ERDF and the Cohesion Fund, is now above the 
EU average.482 

744. However, the transport performance of a country also depends on how urbanised it 
is.  Most  metropolitan  regions  outperform  other  regions.  On  average,  cities 
outperform  rural  areas  although  not  all  cities  perform  that  well.  Cities  in  eastern 
EU Member States achieve a lower performance, especially the smaller ones.483 

745. In global comparison in 2019, four EU countries are among the top ten economies 
in the world in terms of the perceived quality of their roads, railways, air and water 
transport  infrastructure:  the  Netherlands  (2),  Germany  (7),  Spain  (9)  and  France 
(10).484  

480  European  Investment  Bank  (2019),  ‘EIB  Investment  Report  2019/2020.  Accelerating  Europe's  Transformation’. 
https://www.eib.org/en/publications/investment-report-2019  
481 Ibid. 
482  European  Commission  (2019):  ),  DG  REGIO  Working  Paper  –  ‘Road  Transport  Performance  in  Europe,  Introducing  a  New 
Accessibility  Framework’.  https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/information/publications/working-papers/2019/road-transport-
performance-in-europe . 
483 Ibid. 
484 World Economic Forum (2019), ‘The Global Competiveness Report 2019’. 

175 

 
                                                      
Figure 38: Perceived quality of transport infrastructure in the EU countries 

Source: World Economic Forum 2019 (includes access to seaport services for landlocked countries). 

746. There  is  broader  uncertainty  about  long-term  needs  and  policy  directions  and  on 
how to best balance between private and public investment. Given  the long time 
for implementation of transport infrastructure and its long-term effect and well 
as  the  life  span  of  assets  (planes,  trains,  ships  etc.),  this  requires  foresight  and 
stability in terms of planning and prioritising.  

747. Decarbonising  and  cleaning  the  transport  sector  requires  significant  investment, 
inter alia for developing and testing new solutions as well as the renewal of mobile 
assets  and  related  enabling  infrastructures.  According  to  the  Commission 
Communication  “Stepping  up  Europe’s  2030  climate  ambition  -  Investing  in  a 
climate-neutral future for the benefit of our people” the  additional investments for 
2021-2030  in  vehicles  (incl.  rolling  stock,  vessels,  aircraft)  and  alternative  fuels 
infrastructure deployment are estimated at EUR 130 billion per year, compared to 
the  previous  decade.  The  “green  and  digital  transformation  investment  gap”  for 
infrastructure  would  add  an  additional  EUR  100  billion  per  year485.  Just  to 
complete the TEN-T core network and build it as a truly multimodal system, EUR 
300 billion will need to be invested over the next 10 years. 

748. The  renewal  of  vehicle  fleet  across  would  bring  EU  added  value  in  particular  by 
improving  cross  border  connectivity  (for 
the 
environmental  objectives  and  creating  economic  benefits  in  terms  of  GDP 
stimulation and jobs.    

in  rail),  underpin 

instance 

749. In addition, a significant increase in the share of intermodal operations can only be 
achieved  with  substantial  increases  in  numbers  and  capacities  of  intermodal 
terminals and the capacity of key railway trunk routes and nodes. However, current 
investment rates are not in line with perceived investment needs.  

750. Despite efforts to pool and better guide research activities for example in the rail, 
road  and  aviation  sectors,  as  explained  above,  R&D&I  in  the  transport  sector 

485 SWD(2020) 98 final, based on TEN-T related estimates and EIB calculations. This estimate does not include the costs of equity 
repairs, or that of the regular renewal of the fleet, which however may be delayed due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on 
transport companies. 

176 

 
 
 
                                                      
remains fragmented and sluggish, with only insufficient funding available in most 
areas  and  long  lead  times  preventing  rapid  deployment.  We  need  to  address  the 
chicken  and  egg  problem  that  investment  in  new  technologies  will  only  happen 
when there is sufficient confidence that new tech will actually be used.    So need 
strong deployment plans with full legal backing. 

751. The  European  Recovery  Instrument  (‘Next  Generation  EU’)  will  support  critical 
recovery  investments  and  reform  priorities  until  31  December  2024.  The 
Commission will issue bonds to finance EUR 750 billion of Next Generation EU 
which are to be repaid in the period 2027-2058. Two thirds of the Next Generation 
EU budget will fund the grant component of the Recovery and Resilience Facility 
and reinforce other key crisis and recovery EU programmes. The rest of the budget 
will be on-lent to Member States, still under the Recovery and Resilience Facility 
(see also in section 4.3.2.3).  

752. The Sustainable Europe  Investment  Plan is  the investment  pillar of the  European 
Green Deal. The plan will  crowd-in private investments through the EU’s budget 
guarantee under the InvestEU Programme. It further includes the public sector loan 
facility  under  the  Just  Transition  Mechanism,  notably  to  facilitate  public  sector 
investments  in  the  regions  most  affected  by  the  transition.  Support  to  public 
administrations  and  project  promoters  in  identifying,  structuring  and  executing 
sustainable projects will also be provided. 

753. The  EU  in  June  2020  adopted  a  regulation  setting  up  an  EU-wide  classification 
system, or "taxonomy", for sustainable activities. The taxonomy will contribute to 
private  sector  investment  in  new  green  technologies  and  modes  of  transport  by 
providing  businesses  and  investors  with  a  common  language  to  identify 
environmentally sustainable economic activities. The taxonomy will cover a wide 
range  of  transport  sectors  and  will  be  constantly  updated  to  keep  pace  with 
technological developments.  

4.3.2.1  Capacity across modes 

754. The  lower  levels  of  investment  come  in  a  time  when  Europe  is  facing  capacity 
crunch  across  many  modes.  As  demand  for  transport  has  kept  growing,  current 
infrastructure is not able to cope with the growing number of passengers and users, 
causing  congestion, delays and  generating heavy costs for ordinary travellers and 
businesses alike. Congestion is an issue that the Commission has already identified 
as pressing in the 2011 White Paper on transport.486 Progress has been very limited 
over the last  ten  years. Mainly in  densely populated countries of the EU, such as 
the  Benelux  countries  or  Malta,  road  congestion  continues  to  be  an  important 
problem 

755. Annual road congestion external costs have been estimated in monetary terms to 
amount  to  almost  2%  of  the  EU-27  GDP.487  The  slow  deployment  of  smart 
mobility  systems,  which  could  better  manage  traffic  flows,  and  problems  with 
interoperability  are  causing  considerable  economic  losses,  both  in  unexploited 
capacity and in duplicating equipment. 

487 CE Delft (2019), ‘Handbook on the External Costs of Transport. Version 2019’.  
https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9781f65f-8448-11ea-bf12-01aa75ed71a1 

177 

 
                                                      
 
 
Figure 39: Average peak-hour delay per representative driver (hours per year) in 2018 

Source: European Commission Joint Research Centre. Calculations based on TomTom data 

756. Congestion  in  urban  transport  is  a  growing  problem  in  many  cities  despite 
efficiencies  brought  by  ITS  and  other  innovations.  This  is  mainly  due  to  the 
predominant  reliance  on  private  cars,  with  an  average  1.3  person  occupancy  per 
trip. With road capacity in urban areas being limited, investments should focus on 
sustainable  transport  modes  with  the  highest  potential  for  moving  people  and 
goods, such as public transport, walking and cycling.  

757. For  rail,  traffic  density  is  unevenly  distributed  across  the  EU:  The  most 
intensively-used networks, on average, are those of North-West Europe including 
the  Netherlands  (operating  almost  50  000  train-kilometres  per  route-kilometre  in 
2016),  Austria,  Denmark,  Luxembourg,  Germany  and  Belgium.  The  least 
intensively-used networks are those of the Baltic States, Greece, Finland, Romania 
and Bulgaria.488 Low network utilisation means that the fixed costs of operations, 
maintenance  and  renewals  of  the  infrastructure  need  to  be  recovered  from,  or 
justified  by,  a  smaller  volume  of  trains  and  passenger  or  freight  traffic.  On  the 
positive side, it suggests that there would be room to accommodate more rail traffic 
on these networks. At the same time, parts of the network suffer from maintenance 
backlogs  and  related  speed  restrictions,  which  ultimately  also  limit  capacity  and 
quality of infrastructure services.  

758. The  Single  European  Railway  Area  Directive489  requires  that  infrastructure 
managers  declare  as  ‘congested’  any  infrastructure  for  which  it  has  not  been 
possible  to  satisfy  requests  for  infrastructure  capacity.  The  Directive  also  makes 
provision for a capacity analysis and a capacity enhancement plan, which need to 
be carried out if lines are declared congested. As these are considered cumbersome 
by  some  infrastructure  managers,  there  is  a  risk  that  actual  congestion  is  much 
higher than reported and that capacity issues are not properly addressed. Even so, 
the total length of track declared congested (including in Norway) is rising and has 
now  reached  nearly  3  000  kilometres,  including  1  000  kilometres  of  rail  freight 
corridors,  around  nodes  or  covering  sections  of  corridor  lines.  This  suggests  that 
further growth of traffic in some passenger and freight markets will be constrained, 
at least until alternative routes or additional capacity are available. In view of the 
significant regional divergences, it is very difficult to obtain a precise overview of 
capacity constraints on the European network. 

488 6th RMMS report, p. 68 f, https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/6th_rmms_report.pdf 
489  Directive  2012/34/EU  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  21  November  2012  establishing  a  single  European 
railway area, OJ L 343, 14.12.2012, p. 32. 

178 

 
 
                                                      
759. The  analysis  of  railway  capacity  and  current  or  potential  future  bottlenecks  is 
hampered by the fact that there is currently no harmonised way to define railway 
capacity  –  and,  consequently,  capacity  bottlenecks  –  and  that  the  methodologies 
and  assumptions  to  forecast  demand  differ  widely  between  Member  States.  In 
order  to  overcome  this  situation,  common  definitions  and  methods  have  to  be 
defined  at  EU-level  which  may  require  the  establishment  of  a  body  with  the 
necessary expertise and resources. So far, agreement on a more common approach 
was  impeded  by  the  close  link  between  the  capacity  issue  and  the  investment 
planning, which is still dominated by national approaches given the prevalence of 
national-level financing for investments in new and upgraded infrastructure. 

760. Notwithstanding this  lack of  a  common approach to  assess capacity  and capacity 
bottlenecks, various  reports and studies of the Rail Freight  Corridors  confirm the 
existence or prospect of capacity bottlenecks for rail freight transport. Bottlenecks 
exist  mainly  in  major  and  smaller  urban  nodes,  such  as  Lyon,  Milan  and  various 
nodes in Germany, as well as on intensively used strategic axes on which several 
flows overlap on a single line, such as the access lines to the transalpine crossings 
of  Rhine-Alpine  and  Scandinavian-Mediterranean  corridor  or  the  key  Czech  rail 
axis between Prague and Česká Třebová. 

761. An issue of specific importance is the availability of capacity in case of disruptions 
affecting the main lines included in the corridors. Due to the existing density of the 
railway  network,  disruptions  at  a  single  location  may  bring  traffic  along  entire 
corridors  to  a  standstill,  which  obviously  has  a  very  negative  impact  on  the 
reliability  of  rail  transport.  A  number  of  recent  cases  has  shown  that  despite 
improvements  in  international  coordination  in  the  wake  of  the  catastrophic  2017 
disruption of the Rhine-Alpine at Rastatt, only a limited share of trains can be re-
routed  during  disruptions  of  strategic  lines.  According  to  the  best  available 
information,  only  10  to  25 %  of  freight  trains  could  be  diverted  during  the 
disruptions  close  to  Modane  (FR)  in  2018,  Perpignan  (FR)  and  Auggen  (DE)  in 
2020. 

762. Building new rail lines is very expensive and takes a long time. It will therefore be 
crucial  to  make  better  use  of  the  existing  infrastructure.  Better  cross-border 
coordination  on  traffic  planning,  to  seamless  transport  management  and  planning 
of works would allow for a more efficient use of capacity, as would the systematic 
deployment  of  ERTMS  and  automated  train  operation  (ATO).  Optimisation  of 
capacity management could also release capacity.  

763. Timetables  are  the  key  structuring  element  for  railway  traffic  but  the  current 
process  to  design  them  is  the  result  of  decades-long  historical  development.  It  is 
not  in  line  with  current  needs  of  transport  users,  e.g.  as  regards  flexibility  and 
predictability,  and  it  does  not  facilitate  proper  cross-border  coordination.  This 
results in a waste of capacity which could be removed at relatively low cost. The 
railway  sector  currently  develops  key  elements  to  do  so  in  the  context  of  the  so-
called ‘Timetable Redesign’ project. Implementation of this project would require 
public  support  in  the  form  of  changes  to  the  regulatory  framework.  The  TEN-T 
parameters,  in  particular  train  length  and  loading  gauge  -  which  will  lead  to 
capacity increases - have to be in place in 2030 as a minimum. 

764. Ports  have  long  been  the  places  where  industries  can  prosper,  creating  valuable 
employment,  and  providing  much  needed  connectivity  for  European  trade.  The 
challenges  the  sector  is  facing  are  numerous:  global  political  changes,  new 
shipping  alliances  along  with  ultra-large  container  vessels,  new  technologies 
creating  new  business  models,  lack  of  investments,  stronger  environmental 

179 

 
requirements. The estimated investment needs for maritime ports infrastructure is 
around EUR 5 billion per year until 2027.  

765. Inland  navigation  is  one  of  the  most  CO2  efficient  mode  of  transport  per  tons  of 
goods.  Unfortunately  the  sector  is  small  and  face  difficulties  not  only  to  finance 
infrastructure  investments  but  also  to  comply  with  environmental  rules.  Inland 
waterways  infrastructure  needs,  including  inland  ports  is  around  EUR  47  billion 
between 2021  & 2027.  Current  CEF  support is  around EUR 1.8 billion for  IWT. 
This  shows  that  at  the  European  level  under  investment  might  hamper  the 
development  of  inland  navigation  as  alternative  to  road,  if  not  complemented  by 
other sources of financing. 

766. In the area of air traffic management, many inefficiencies remain, partly due to the 
still fragmented airspace and the absence of a completed Single European Sky. The 
current  fragmentation  of  the  European  airspace  still  leads  to  operational 
inefficiencies and large volumes of unnecessary fuel burn.  

767. The  use  of  the  EU’s  transport  system  is  not  optimised  either,  due  to  lack  of 
coherent modal and multimodal infrastructure. Intermodal travel cannot become 
a  reality  if  airports  and  freight  terminals  are  not  linked  with  efficient  transport 
solutions  on  the  ground  and  if  airports  and  freight  terminals  serving  the  same 
conurbation are not linked effectively. Interoperability between ports (both inland 
and maritime), and hinterland connections remain an issue. The number of multi-
modal  platforms  and  transhipment  nodes  is  not  optimal  either.  Equally,  the 
efficiency  of  cross-border  travel  is  constrained  by  a  fragmented  high  speed  rail 
network.  

768. The  TEN-T  Regulation  establishes  guidelines  for  the  development  of  a  trans-
European  transport  network.  A  number  of  its  requirements  are  aimed  at 
sustainable, safe, secure, inclusive and smart transport solutions. It provides for the 
removal  of  bottlenecks  and  filling  of  gaps  in  the  transport  networks,  facilitating 
multi-modality, 
interoperability  standards  or  smart 
infrastructure  components  as  well  as  charging  and  refuelling  equipment  for 
emission-free vehicles. Catching up of countries with less developed infrastructure 
is  necessary  to  ensure  better  connection  into  the  single  market.  This  includes  in 
particular cross border infrastructure.  

introducing  harmonised 

769. Horizon  Europe  is  envisaged  to  include  R&I  actions  to  identify  and  demonstrate 
solutions  towards sustainable multimodality, including infrastructure and network 
management.  The  development  of  the  comprehensive  network,  which  ensures 
accessibility  of  all  regions  to  the  trans-European  networks,  is  to  be  assessed  in 
particular when revising the TEN-T Regulation. The Commission has proposed the 
adoption of new rules regarding the Connecting Europe Facility490 . The intention 
is inter alia to support the deployment of a digital infrastructure along the TEN-T 
corridors,  and  to  create  the  conditions  for  the  large-scale  testing  of  advanced 
connected  and  automated  mobility  applications  and  services,  including  for  other 
modes  of  transport  such  as  rail  and  inland  waterways.  In  the  medium  term,  after 
2025,  such  deployment  may  have  reached  scale  effects.  At  that  point,  connected 
transport paths may contribute to the digital transformation of vertical industries in 
the field of mobility and transport, and in particular automotive and rail. 

490 COM (2018) 438 Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliamanet and of the Council establishing the Connecting Europe 
Facility and repealing Regulations (EU) No 1316/2013 and (EU) No 283/2014 

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770. Within  urban  areas,  the  infrastructure  for  the  most  sustainable  and  cost-efficient 
ways of transportation, active mobility, is often inadequate  and not matching the 
rising  demand.  More  walking  and  cycling  would  help  to  achieve  the  European 
Green  Deal  as  well  as  air  quality  requirements,  tackle  road  congestion,  and  both 
encourage  active  mobility  while  making  it  safer.  A  systematic  inclusion  of  the 
carbon impact and health benefits of active mobility in infrastructure and transport 
projects and policies is needed. The respective WHO Health Economic Assessment 
Tool  (HEAT) elaborated with  UNECE491 should be applied at  local,  national  and 
EU levels. 

transport 

771. Active  mobility  infrastructure  would  enable  better  last  mile  solutions  for 
multimodal 
towards 
in  cities.  Support  needs 
multimodal/mobility hubs and urban distribution centres (consolidation/micro-
consolidation centres). Zero-emission light electric (freight and personnel) vehicles 
such as cargo e-bikes and shared e-bikes schemes can decarbonise urban mobility 
and increase its efficiency. 

to  be  directed 

4.3.2.2  Future-proof infrastructure  

772. Insufficient  investment  in  infrastructure  over  the  past  decade  also  led  to  a 
maintenance  backlog.  Crumbling  bridges,  degrading  road  and  rail  infrastructure 
became a painful reality with higher risk of congestions, accidents, increased noise 
and lower level of service to society.    Several issues have to be considered in this 
respect.  First,  delaying  maintenance  works  in  order  to  cut  expenditure  in  the 
context of tight budgets usually leads to increased costs when taking into account 
the whole life cycle of infrastructure. A persistent lack in regular maintenance and 
renewal reduces performance and capacity of the infrastructure (e.g. through speed 
reductions and disruptions).  

773. Second, maintenance should be addressed from the outset: infrastructure should be 
designed  and  implemented  in  a  sustainable  way,  through  the  lifecycle  approach, 
taking  into  account  future  maintenance  needs,  taking  into  account  research  work 
done in this area.  

774. Third, maintenance activities may have impact on the capacity of the network (e.g. 
sections  which  are  not  usable  during  maintenance  works).  Compensating 
maintenance  backlogs  by  massive  maintenance  and  renewal  programmes  may 
reduce significantly infrastructure availability in the short to medium term. 

775. For rail, the backlog in maintenance means that more works will need to be carried 
out  on  the  network  in  coming  years,  making  close  coordination  between 
infrastructure managers more important than ever. In the past, failure to coordinate 
such  works  across  borders  has  often  led  to  significant  complications,  delays  and 
financial losses for railway undertakings and has hampered the competitiveness of 
rail  vis-à-vis  other  transport  modes.  Digitalisation  of  need  identification  and 
maintenance  planning  is  expected  to  reduce  infrastructure  barriers  caused  by 
maintenance works. 

776. The quality of infrastructure planning and implementation is also weakened by the 
decreasing  project  management  and  implementation  capacity  across  Member 
States due to cuts in human resources.    This situation has been exacerbated by the 
financial  crisis:  following  lower  levels  of  investment  over  the  past  years,  public 

491http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Transport-and-health/activities/guidance-and-tools/health-
economic-assessment-tool-heat-for-cycling-and-walking  

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administrations  had  less  resources.  As  infrastructure  managers  often  depend  to  a 
large  extent  on  increasingly  scarce  public  funding,  transport  projects  are 
particularly impaired by this reduced capacity to prepare projects.     

777. The lack of administrative capacity has led in certain Member States to situations 
where  available  funds  could  not  be  absorbed,  procedures  being  contested,  public 
consultations not properly conducted, projects delayed, etc.  

778. This  reduced  administrative  capacity  also  leads  to  consequences  in  the  field  of 
public procurement, with suboptimal outcomes. While the current legal framework 
established the Most Economically Advantageous Tender (MEAT) principle492, in 
practice the lowest-priced offers tend to be awarded the contract, which often leads 
to  compromising  quality. 
  Furthermore,  instruments  in  the  existing  legal 
framework  that  can  contribute  to  ensuring  a  level  playing  field  in  public 
procurement are not fully exploited.493 

779. Furthermore, procedures to monitor, maintain and renew infrastructure such that it 
remains to in good quality are sometimes not in place or not properly implemented. 
However,  good  practice  examples494  do  exist  in  this  area  and  could  provide  a 
blueprint to improve performance elsewhere.     

780. Another challenge relates to  accessibility. Currently one in  six citizens in the EU 
suffers from some kind of disability or are of reduced mobility because of their age 
or  other  circumstances  (e.g.  obesity),  and  the  share  of  this  population  will  grow 
significantly because of the ageing of population and insufficient physical activity 
(also  related  to  car  use).  At  the  same  time  the  current  passenger  transport 
infrastructure  is  not  always  accessible  enough  for  this  population,  so  they  either 
travel with private cars or left excluded from transportation, which has a negative 
impact in their life (lack of social inclusion, less job opportunities, worse access to 
healthcare). 

781. Climatic  changes  that  potentially  affect  transport  systems  include  both  gradual 
ones, such as sea level rise, and intensification of extreme events. Climate change 
adaptation  need  to  cover  all  transport  modes  and  requires  horizontal  action.  This 
includes: 

 

 

Identifying the level of vulnerability of the transport system, highlighting the 
rapid detection of disruptions 
Implementing  a  systemic  approach  for  the  planning,  design,  construction, 
operation and management of transport infrastructures having into account the 
effects of climate is essential for overcoming the impact of future changes and 
become climate-proof. 

782. In particular for road and rail infrastructure, key vulnerabilities include495:  

  Mainly heavy precipitation and river flooding 
 

Sea level rise and storm surges 

492 MEAT enables the contracting authority to take account of criteria that reflect qualitative, technical and sustainability aspects as 
well as price. 
493  Member  States  may  use  the  options  to  regulate  participation  to  public  tenders,  as  explained  in  the  2019  Guidance  on  the 
participation of third-country bidders and goods in the EU procurement market (in particular Article 25 of Directive 2014/24/EU 
and Article 85 of Directive 2014/25/EU). 
494  For  instance,  in  rail  there  are  some  examples  of  excellent  monitoring  and  managing  the  state-of-repair  of  infrastructure,  e.g. 
https://www.eba.bund.de/DE/Themen/Finanzierung/LuFV/IZB/izb_node.html  
495https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC72217/transport%20and%20climate%20change%20final%20report.
pdf 

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 

Increasing  average  temperature  all  over  Europe  could  require  changes  in 
maintenance  operations,  or  even  adaptation  of  some  infrastructure  elements, 
and practices and represent extra costs. 

783. For  airports  and  seaports,  the  greatest  risks  relate  to  inundation  and  higher  wind 

gust speeds; sea level rise, storm surges and inundation, respectively.496 

784. Inland  waterways  are  vulnerable  to  climate  change  because  river  navigation 
depends  on  precipitation  and  water  levels  for  its  operations.  Droughts  and  floods 
have  the  most  disruptive  impacts  for  inland  waterways  because  low  water  levels 
impose  limitations  to  navigation  services.  Hence  inland  waterway  transport  is 
directly  affected  and  already  feels  the  impact  of  climate  change.  Recent  drought 
periods  as  well  as  floods  disrupt  inland  navigation  activities  by  imposing 
restrictions on the amounts of loads transported, increasing the number of vessels 
to compensate reduced load factors and a shift to less energy-efficient modes, i.e. 
undermining  its  capacity  to  contribute  to  transport  decarbonisation  goals.  In  the 
case of the Rhine, the other modes of transport do not dispose of sufficient capacity 
to absorb the shift. 

785.  Inland  waterways  can  exert  pressure  on  aquatic  ecosystems,  mainly  due  to 
modification  in  the  hydromorphology  of  rivers,  fragmentation  of  ecosystems, 
disruption  of  ecological  flow,  or  pollution  of  water  and  sediment.  An  integrated 
approach  is  needed.  Therefore,  waterway  transport  needs  a  reliable,  safe,  cost-
effective and climate resilient infrastructure network. Since inland waterways have 
multiple  functions:  water  supply,  energy  generation,  recreation,  biodiversity,  this 
requires  an  integrated  water  policy  to  ensure  that  such  infrastructures have  a 
neutral or positive impact on biodiversity and do not compromise the achievement 
of good status of the water bodies they relate to, in line with the objectives of the 
Water Framework Directive, the Habitats Directive and the Biodiversity Strategy. 
The Water Framework Directive provides the right framework for integrated water 
management at the basin level. The Fitness Check of this Directive however shows 
that there is a need to strengthen its implementation, and to better integrate it with 
other  sectoral  policies  including  the  navigation  policy.  The  multi-dimensional 
functions of rivers, canals and lakes must be taken into account when developing 
waterways while dealing with climate change. An integrative approach among all 
water users towards ecologic, societal, economic and safety-related functions is  a 
condition  sine  qua  non  for  a  successful  climate  responsive  policy  in  terms  of 
adaptation. 

786. These  trends  imply  a  growing  need  for  finding  synergies  between  the  transport, 
energy and digital sectors, which are not yet harnessed to the full extent, including 
for the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure. New approach to the design 
of  network  and  business  models  is  needed,  which  should  also  take  into 
consideration  the  impact  of  the  climate  change  on  the  current  and  future 
infrastructure as well as demographic changes impacting the mobility patters of the 
future. Horizon Europe calls for proposals are planned to help to develop and test 
new methods of transport infrastructure maintenance and upgrade, with a view to 
improving  safety,  climate  resilience  and  environmental  impact  (incl.  habitat  and 
biodiversity)  and  develop  new  solutions  to  accommodate  connected  mobility. 
These R&I actions are also expected to accommodate new and evolving transport 
modes and improved integration of transport infrastructure and energy systems. 

496 https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC108865/jrc108865_final.pdf 

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787.  Finally, facilitating the movement of military troops and assets is essential for the 
security  of  European  citizens  and  to  allow  for  more  efficient  deployment  of  EU 
armed  forces  abroad.  Today,  there  are  obstacles  which  are  hampering  the 
movement of military equipment and personnel across the EU, including physical, 
legal and regulatory barriers. Military mobility is a key priority for the EU-NATO 
cooperation.  Transport  infrastructure  is  not  always  fit  for  the  specific  needs  of 
military transport which  has specific requirements (e.g. in  terms of  weight  of the 
vehicles  on  bridges  or  dimensions  of  tunnels).  The  Commission  services  and  the 
European  External  Action Service  (EEAS)  497 are comparing  the military and the 
civilian  requirements  to  identify  gaps  and  synergies.  The  Gap  Analysis  will  also 
inform the subsequent definition of the dual-use infrastructure requirements, which 
will  constitute  the  legal  basis  for  CEF  co-funding  through  the  military  mobility 
envelope.  Finally,  the  Commission  in  consultation  with  the  Member  States  and 
relevant stakeholders will develop a dual-use project pipeline over 2020 to identify 
investment priorities before CEF co-funding starts in 2021. 

4.3.2.3  Access to funding  

788. In view of the above, investment into connectivity, both at national and European 
level,  requires  a  strategic  approach  both  in  terms  of  levels  to  close  the 
underinvestment gap and in terms of coherent, future-proof priorities. It should be 
based on three main axes: 

 

Effective  use-based  infrastructure  charging  covering  a  significantly  greater 
share of infrastructure    costs; 

  A  greater  participation  of  private  capital,  in  particular  through  green 

financing, while preserving European control of key infrastructure; 

  A  reinforced  complementarity  of  public  funding  sources  at  national  and 

European level 

789. At  the  moment,  however,  investment  is  defined  quite  narrowly  and  is  not 
necessarily  aligned  with  all  policy  goals  in  particular  decarbonisation  and  health. 
The  focus  is  predominantly  put  on  new  infrastructure  but  does  not  address 
upgrading and maintenance. There are also limited investment options for movable 
assets (vehicles, vessels), active mobility infrastructure, retrofitting and renewal of 
vehicles that could help adapt to the current and future challenges, including safety, 
modernisation and cleaning the transport sector as a whole. The renewal of the rail 
and  vessels  fleet  would  bring  EU  added  value  in  particular  by  improving  cross 
border  connectivity,  underpin  the  environmental  objective  of  modal  shift  and 
creating  economic  benefits  in  terms  of  GDP  stimulation  and  jobs.    Last  but  not 
least, limited access to investment for smaller market players (SMEs, especially in 
the  road  and  waterborne  sectors)  is  hampering  innovation  investments  in  these 
sectors.  These  issues  are  addressed  by  the  InvestEU  regulation  which  foresees 
support to maintenance, mobile assets and seamless support to SMEs through the 
Sustainable Infrastructure and SME Windows. 

790. At  the  EU  level  the  coordination  and  coherence  of  support  across  different  EU 
programmes  (Connecting  Europe  Facility,  Cohesion  Fund,  ERDF  and  InvestEU) 
and  European  Investment  Bank’s  support  as  regards  objectives  and  conditions 

497 A Joint Commission and High Representative Action Plan on Military Mobility was adopted in March 2018.  It identifies EU-
level actions to support the protection / defence of the Union. In the area of transport, the Action Plan identifies two areas for action: 
(i) transport infrastructure development; and (ii) transport of dangerous goods.  

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underlying public funding is not optimal either. Conditionality to receiving funding 
may need to be better aligned, in line with relevant European policies.  

791. The  Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility  will  be  one  of  the  main  tools  for  the 
recovery, with  an unprecedented EUR 672.5 billion of frontloaded  non-repayable 
support as well as loans during the crucial first years of the recovery. The Member 
States will encompass in their recovery and resilience plans their national agenda 
of  reforms  and  investments  designed  in  line  with  the  relevant  country  specific 
recommendations  and  EU  policy  objectives,  centred  on  the  green  and  digital 
transitions.  The  Facility  will  support  Member  States’  efforts  to  strengthen 
effectively their social and economic resilience, and hence their economies’ growth 
potential and job creation, thereby supporting the EU objectives. 
In  the  Communication  ‘Annual  Sustainable  Growth  Strategy  2021’498  the 
Commission  highlighted  that  “investing  in  sustainable  mobility  can  also  strongly 
support  the  recovery.  Measures  addressing  transport  can  bring  significant 
greenhouse  gas  emission  reductions  and  improvements  to  air  quality,  while 
fostering  productivity growth.  In designing their national  recovery and resilience 
plans,  Member  States  should  consider  such  measures  as  investing  in  public 
transport  and  in  infrastructure  that  supports  the  shift  towards  more  sustainable 
and  smart  mobility,  including  seamless  and  efficient  European  multimodal 
networks  as  well  as  upgrading  Trans-European  Transport  Network  networks  for 
passengers  and  freight.  Reforms  and  investments  aimed  at  boosting  demand  for 
zero-  and  low-emission  vehicles  and  accelerating  the  rollout  of  recharging  and 
refuelling  infrastructure  are  also  key  for  achieving  this  goal.  This  should  be 
complemented by investments in low carbon energy technologies and value chains, 
including  hydrogen  or  batteries,  and  on  sustainable  energy  infrastructure. 
Reforming  the  environmental  incentives  provided  by  the  taxation  of  vehicles  and 
fuels will be particularly important to accompany this trend.”  

The Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy 2021 also set out a number of European 
flagships  as  “pursuing  these  flagships  will  ensure  the  success  of  the  recovery  of 
Europe; it will make Europe a digital and greener continent and will increase the 
cohesion among Member States”. Among them is Recharge and refuel: “Promoting 
future-proof clean technologies to accelerate the use of sustainable, accessible and 
smart transport, charging and refuelling stations and extension of public transport 
will make European cities and regions cleaner, accelerate the industrial transition 
and contribute to reaching the Paris climate objectives. By 2025, the flagship will 
aim to build one out of the three million charging points needed in 2030 and half of 
the 1000 hydrogen stations needed”. 
In  addition  to  guidance  to  Member  States  Recovery  and  Resilience  Plans499,  the 
Commission  also  provided  examples  of  component  of  reforms  and  investments, 
including on clean, smart and fair urban mobility500. 

792. Closer policy dialogue between the EC and the EIB has been established with the 
revision  of  the  EIB  transport  lending  policy.  The  Cleaner  Transport  Facility  has 
been  established  as  an  umbrella  for  EU  support  to  the  deployment  of  smart  and 
sustainable transport (covering CEF including Blending Operations and CEF Debt 
Instrument; EIB own-risk; and European Fund for Strategic Investment). Also, the 
Safer  Transport  Platform  was  established  as  a  gateway  to  advisory  services  to 

498 COM(2020) 575 final 
499 https://ec.europa.eu/info/departments/recovery-and-resilience-task-force_en#Documents 
500 https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/component_clean_urban_mobility.pdf 

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support the uptake of funding and financing opportunities for projects that improve 
road  safety.  Lastly,  funds  from  the  NER300  programme501  can  be  channelled 
through the CEF Debt Instrument for electric mobile assets and renewable energy 
transport infrastructure.  

793. Furthermore  there  is  a  need  to  improve  the  capacity  to  plan,  design  and  procure 
transport  infrastructure  projects  at  local  and  regional  level.  At  those  levels, 
advisory  services  and  related  resources  would  be  required  in  order  to  prepare 
projects. Relevant programmes are already operating in collaboration with the EIB, 
including:  the  Joint  Assistance  to  Support  Projects  in  European  Regions 
(JASPERS); the European Local ENergy Assistance (ELENA); and more generally 
through the European Investment Advisory Hub.  

794. All these trends will need to be taken into consideration in the review of the EU-
level transport infrastructure network policy (based on the TEN-T Regulation and 
supported predominantly by CEF and the Cohesion Fund and ERDF). This policy 
has  been  crucial  to  connect  national  transport  networks,  overcome  technical 
barriers (inter-operability)  and enhance major transport axes across the  Union.  In 
addition, investments in the transport sector and TEN-T network in particular were 
also  supported  by  the  EIB,  including  under  the  European  Fund  for  Strategic 
Investment.  Around  20%  of  the  total  lending  of  the  EIB  goes  to  the  transport 
sector, representing EUR 59 billion since 2014. The largest share of the loans has 
gone  to  the  projects  in  the  rail  sector,  followed  by  road  and  urban  mobility.  The 
core  network,  which  represents  around  55%  of  TEN-T  railways,  43%  of  TEN-T 
roads  and  the  whole  TEN-T  inland  waterway  network  in  addition  to  many  ports, 
airports and other transport terminals and inter-modal junctions must be completed 
by  2030.  It  must  be  then  complemented  by  the  comprehensive  network 
(completion by 2050), which seeks to ensure full geographical accessibility across 
the Union.  

795. This  should  help  in  also  reflecting  the  importance  and  challenges  of  regional  or 
local  freight  transport  networks  as  the  corridors  mainly  relate  to  long-distance 
transport  services.  Infrastructure  provision  in  urbanised  areas  needs  to  be  better 
linked  with  the  management  and  optimisation  of  traffic  flows.  While  bottlenecks 
can  appear  in  and/or  around  cities,  e.g.  congested  ring  roads,  solutions  might  be 
found on the corridor (e.g. stimulating multi-modality) or vice versa. 

796. However, the full roll-out of the TEN-T network needs substantial investments, as 
estimated by the European Corridors Coordinators Work Plans, to upgrade existing 
networks,  construct  missing  links,  which  are  not  always  prioritised  by  Member 
States’ national authorities, improve interoperability and network capacity, among 
others.  The  current  estimations  envisage  that  EUR  300  billion  will  be  needed  to 
complete the TEN-T core network alone.  

797. Comprehensive  Transport  Strategies  provide  a  stable,  long  term  framework  for 
investments planning in the transport sector. The existence of such plans is a pre-
requisite  (ex-ante  conditionality,  enabling  condition)  to  access  support  from  the 
Cohesion Fund and ERDF. These national and regional plans include measures at 
the level of the TEN- core and comprehensive network, and also provide the link 
between local/regional transport networks and the TEN-T. 

501 NER 300 is a funding programme pooling together about EUR 2 billion for innovative low-carbon technology, focusing on the 
demonstration  of  environmentally  safe  Carbon  Capture  and  Storage  (CCS)  and  innovative  renewable  energy  technologies  on  a 
commercial scale within the EU. 

186 

 
                                                      
798. Railways transport infrastructure has been identified as the segment most in need 
of investment to finalise the TEN-T network and maintain/modernize the existing 
network,  with  around  60%  of  the  total  demand  for  funding/financing.  Fixed 
infrastructure costs  are comparatively low per km  for aviation and  road  and very 
high for rail, due to the very different nature of the infrastructure involved502. On 
the other side, marginal costs are very different  by mode, once  external  costs are 
being considered.  

799. Due to a combination of market failures and the lack of level playing field between 
the modes, cross border infrastructure in general and railway infrastructure projects 
in particular are often not financially viable and struggle to attract private capital. 
Also,  regulatory  aspects  and  state  infrastructure  ownership  remain  a  barriers  to 
tapping into capital market investment in transport projects.  

4.3.3  Single Market 

800. Mobility  keeps  Europe  moving  and  the  economy  growing:  people  need  to 
commute and travel, while businesses must be able to deliver goods and services. 
Without  transport,  the  internal  market  simply  would  not  function,  nor  would 
European  industry  be  competitive.  Transport  services  accounts  for  about  5%  of 
total EU Gross Value Added. The volume of transported goods in the EU, as well 
as  the  passenger  transport  activity,  increased  by  about  30  %  between  1995  and 
2017.  

801. The functioning of the EU Single Market hinges on a dense network of transport 
infrastructure,  highly  competitive  transport  services  and  a  sound  regulatory 
framework  to  ensure  the  highest  standards  of  safety  and  security,  as  well  as 
international  competitiveness  and  connectivity.  An  effective  and  vibrant  internal 
transport  market  is  key  to  driving  innovation  and  entrepreneurship,  increasing 
service  quality  and  lowering  transport  costs  for  the  benefit  of  European  citizens 
and businesses. Completing the Single European Transport Area envisioned by the 
2011 White Paper503 therefore still remains the cornerstone of European transport 
policy. 

4.3.3.1  Single Market for road transport 

802. In  July  2020,  the  European  Parliament  and  the  Council  adopted  the  so-called 
Mobility Package I504. The package contains a number of social and market rules 
for  the  commercial  road  transport  sector,  intended  inter  alia  to  enhance  working 
conditions  for  drivers,  as  well  as  to  eliminate  distortion  of  competition  between 
operators  in  the  sector,  by  removing  notably  unfair  business  practices  such  as 
letterbox companies. Now the efforts must concentrate on effective and consistent 
enforcement of these  rules. The Commission  is  currently analysing the impact  of 

502  Overview  of  transport  infrastructure  expenditure  and  costs:  https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/studies/overview-
transport-infrastructure-expenditures-costs-isbn-978-92-79-96920-1.pdf  
503 White Paper – Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system, 
COM (2011) 144 final. 
504 Regulation (EU) No 2020/1054 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 July 2020 amending Regulation (EC) No 
561/2006 as regards minimum requirements on maximum daily and  weekly driving times, minimum breaks and daily and weekly 
rest periods and Regulation (EU) No 165/2014 as regards positioning by means of tachographs; Regulation (EU) 2020/1055 of the 
European Parliament and of the Council of 15 July 2020 amending Regulations (EC) No 1071/2009, (EC)No 1072/2009 and 9EU) 
1024/2012  with  a  view  to  adapting  them  to  developments  in  road  transport  sector;  Directive  (EU)  2020/1057  of  the  European 
Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  15  July  2020  laying  down  specific  rules  with  respect  to  Directive  96/71/EC  and  Directive 
2014/67/EU for posting drivers in road transport sector and amending Directive 2006/22/EC as regards enforcement requirements 
and Regulation (EU) No 1024/2012. 

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certain provisions such as the mandatory return of the truck at regular intervals to 
one of the operational centres of the undertaking. 

803. To  further  enhance  the  smooth  functioning  of  the  EU  passenger  transport  by  bus 
and  coach,  the  Commission  services  will  assess  the  adequacy  of  current  driving 
and rest time rules for bus and coach drivers. Should the assessment demonstrate 
that, specificities of the bus and coach sector justify specific rules on driving and 
rest times, the Commission may propose relevant adaptations.  

4.3.3.2  Single European Railway Area 

804. With  the  implementation  of  the  Fourth  Railway  Package  (a  set  of  6  legislative 
measures  adopted  in  2016)  the  internal  market  for  railway  services  is  set  to  be 
completed,  resulting  in  a  Single  European  Railway  Area.  This  package  puts  the 
emphasis on competition to deliver the efficiency and innovation. This is the final 
step of a gradual process which started already in the 1990s. 

805. The  Fourth  Railway  Package  comprises  a 

‘technical  pillar’  and  a 
‘market/governance pillar’. The market pillar opens up to EU-wide competition the 
market  for  domestic  passenger  services,  which  covers  over  2/3  of  all  passenger 
services.  This  follows  the  markets  for  rail  freight  and  international  passenger 
services,  which  have  been  open  to  competition  for  years.  Some  Member  States 
(Austria,  Czechia,  Germany,  Italy,  Sweden)  have  already  partially  opened  their 
domestic markets,  with  positive results in  terms  of passenger volumes, quality of 
service,  choice,  and  in  some  cases  rail  fares.  The  Commission  is  closely 
monitoring Member States’ implementation of the new legal framework. 

806. From December 2020, EU railway companies anywhere in the EU will enjoy the 
right to offer international and domestic rail services on a commercial basis, where 
economically feasible (with possible exceptions related to economical interference 
with  existing  Public  Service  Contracts).  This  is  known  as  ‘open  access 
competition’,  and  has  already  helped  to  improve  services  and  frequencies,  and 
reduce fares on some lines.  

807. Furthermore,  the  package  introduces  the  principle  of  mandatory  competitive 
tendering  for  public  service  contracts  for  rail.  These  contracts  usually  involve 
public  subsidies,  because  the  public  service  obligations  make  them  unprofitable. 
Historically,  they  were  awarded  directly  to  the  incumbent  national  railway 
company.  

808. As regards enforcement, it is important to bear in mind access to service facilities 
(in respect of which details are regulated by way of a Commission Regulation505), 
which remains an essential condition for competition to develop on a fair basis, in 
particular the maintenance of rolling stock. 

Cross-border passenger services 

809. In  line  with  the  ambition  to  promote  sustainable  modes  of  transport,  there  is  a 
growing wish to support cross-border rail passenger services. As described above, 
the  enabling  regulatory  framework  is  in  place,  but  this  kind  of  services  are 
currently underdeveloped. 

505  Commission  Implementing  Regulation  (EU)  2017/2177  of  22  November  2017  on  access  to  service  facilities  and  rail-related 

services, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32017R2177 

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810. Member State initiatives, notably from the Netherlands and from Germany, aim at 
promoting the development of new and revival of cross-border services, including 
night train services. The Netherlands have set up a Member State platform which 
will work on concrete measures to remove obstacles. Germany has developed the 
so-called  Trans  Europe  Express  2.0  concept  which  aims  at  the  development  of  a 
long distance cross-border high speed and night services network. 

811. These  Member  State  initiatives  are  welcome,  provided  they  comply  with  all 
relevant  rules,  including  the  relevant  rail  legislation,  especially  regarding  market 
access506 and State aid rules507. 

812. Finding neutral timetable information and easy ticketing options (also discussed in 
section 4.2.1) are  essential for the development  of a successful network of cross-
border rail passenger services. Unequivocal, enforceable and clearly communicated 
passenger rights are similarly essential to attract new passengers to rail.         

4.3.3.2.1  Market access for public transport services by rail  

813. Although  the  relevant  legislation  is  in  place,  market  access  for  public  transport 

services by rail is still hampered by several factors:  

  Access  to  information  is  essential  to  ensure  that  rail  operators  can  submit 
serious offers in tendering procedures. It is the object of a specific provision in 
the 2016 amendments  to the Regulation  n°1370/2007.  Nonetheless,  there are 
still  extensive  debates  and  litigations  in  Member  States  on  the  scope  of  the 
information  to  be  provided,  which  negatively  affects  the  conduct  of 
competitive tendering procedures. 

  Access  to  rolling  stock  is  identified  as  a  major  bottleneck  for  new  entrants. 
The  amended  Regulation  n°1370/2007  provides  that  competent  authorities 
must  assess  whether  measures  to  facilitate  access  to  rolling  stock  are 
necessary but are not obliged to adopt any such measures. 

  Ticketing for rail (through- or combined tickets) is hindered by several factors, 
in  particular  the  recurring  issue  of  access  to  dynamic  information  on  fares, 
reservations  and  real-time  traffic  information  (also  discussed  in  section  4.2). 
In addition, according to studies508, the rules applicable to PSO compensation 
could  constitute  hurdles  to  revenue  sharing  between  PSO  and  commercial 
operators via (combined) ticketing schemes.     

  The contracts that are directly awarded for long periods, as mentioned above, 

have the effect of foreclosing the market accordingly.  

4.3.3.2.2  Rail rolling stock availability 

814. Rolling  stock  availability  is  a  major  barrier  for  new  entrants.  With  the  European 
Union  Agency  for  Railways  (ERA)  becoming  the  single  authorisation  authority 
and  bringing  significantly  enhanced  harmonisation  of  technical  requirements,  rail 
gets much closer to the situation of road and aviation, where the same vehicles and 
aircraft can be used anywhere in the EU, increasing market flexibility and reducing 
the  risks  for  vehicle  owners.  However,  the  lack  of  ‘go-everywhere’  rail  rolling 
stock continues to increase cost. Establishing a rail system architecture that further 

506  In  particular  Directive  2012/34/EU  establishing  a  single  European  rail  area,  as  amended  by  the  Fourth  Railway  Package, 

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:02012L0034-20190101 

507   Mostly, Regulation n°1370/2007 and the Community guidelines on State aid for railway undertakings of 22/7/2008.  
508  Including  study  on  “Remaining  challenges  for  EU-wide  integrated  ticketing  and  payment  systems”,  European  Commission, 
Grimaldi  Studio  Legale  ,  VVA  ,  Wavestone,  2019  https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/8a7b0dd0-df3d-11e9-
9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en 

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aligns technical specifications for interoperability and the elimination of obstacles 
caused by redundant national technical, safety and operating rules will help the rail 
sector  to  modernise  und  become  more  attractive  for  new  service  providers  and 
clients.  

815. Due to high costs and business risks, time lags and potential interoperability issues, 
smooth  and  non-discriminatory  access  to  rolling  stock  is  fundamental  for 
alternative  rail  operators  to  enter  new  markets509.  This  is  particularly  true  for 
passenger  services  (including  night  trains),  regardless  if  they  are  provided  under 
PSO  contracts  or  commercially.  Smaller  operators  risk  lacking  the  appropriate 
financial resources to engage in significant investments for buying rolling stock in 
order to enter a new domestic market or to compete for bigger PSO contracts.  

816. The  secondary  markets  and  leasing  markets  for  passenger  rolling  stock  are  very 
limited, making it harder for new entrants to access rail markets. In some reported 
instances, incumbents scrap or sell abroad redundant rolling stock instead of selling 
or leasing them to new entrants (especially if new entrants would compete on the 
same  markets)510.  Rail  regulatory  bodies  acknowledge  that,  although  the  rolling 
stock  market  is  not  regulated,  limited  access  to  this  market  may  severely  restrict 
access to the railway market for new entrants511. 

817. The  Regulation  on  public  passenger  transport  services  by  rail  and  by  road512 
includes some provisions related to rolling stock in the framework of competitive 
tendering  procedures  for  the  attribution  of  public  service  obligations.  Before 
launching  such  procedures,  competent  authorities  must  assess  the  need  for 
measures  to  ensure  effective  and  non-discriminatory  access  to  suitable  rolling 
stock,  taking  into  account  the  presence  of  rolling-stock  leasing  companies  or 
equivalent in the relevant market. Competent authorities could then decide to take 
“appropriate  measures”  to  ensure  effective  and  non-discriminatory  access  to 
suitable rolling stock.   

818. The  Commission  also  called  the  EU  rail  regulatory  bodies  to  oversee  the 
assessment of rolling stock market to be performed by the competent authorities. In 
the medium to long term, the tendency of competent authorities themselves to own 
or finance rolling stock for Public Service contracts and progress in interoperability 
levels will lead to better access to rolling stock. However, the availability of rolling 
stock needs to be ensured also in the short to medium term to avoid barriers to the 
development  of  the  single  rail  market.  It  remains  necessary  to  carefully  review 
existing  models  of  procurement  and  financing  of  new  and  second  hand  rolling 
stock and determine a policy to facilitate access, addressing also State aid aspects. 

4.3.3.2.3  Rail interoperability 

819. From a technical point of view, seamless rail transport throughout the EU requires 
two  main  things.  First,  networks  with  harmonised  characteristics  and  trains 
designed to run on these networks. Second, harmonised operational rules between 
the EU countries and operators (railway undertakings and infrastructure managers) 
to allow efficient cross-border traffic. 

820. Although  the  Fourth  Railway  Package  provides  for  rail  operators  to  receive  a 
single  safety  certificate  from  ERA  for  operations  throughout  the  EU,  operational 

509 See also CER “Public Service Rail Transport in the European Union: an Overview”, June 2017.  
510 See ALLRAIL contribution of 22 May 2019 to the consultation of stakeholders of future transport strategy.  
511 See IRG-Rail contribution to the stakeholders’ consultation on the future transport strategy of 12 May 2017.  
512 Regulation (EC) No 1370/2007 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on public passenger transport 
services by rail and by road and repealing Council Regulations (EEC) Nos 1191/69 and 1107/70, OJ L 315, 3.12.2007, p. 1.  

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and safety rules are not yet fully harmonised, adding to the complexity and cost of 
cross border operations, and in particular resulting in stops and checks at borders 
between  Member  States  creating  substantial  delays.  Differences  in  national 
operational  rules are also an obstacle to  the development  of pan-European digital 
and  automation  solutions.  Thus  a  major  thrust  of  the  future  work  of  the 
Commission,  with  the  help  of  ERA,  may  be  to  harmonise  these  processes  or 
eliminate  national  rules  leaving  freedom  for  individual  operators  to  optimise  the 
approach while ensuring safety.     

821. In addition to EU-level harmonisation, the Commission is working on a voluntary 
basis with the sector and Member States along Rail Freight Corridors to build trust 
and solve the main issues: harmonisation of braking tests, checks at borders, timely 
information on train composition between countries, as well as rules on language 
competence, referred to as Issues Logbook.  

822. Work  is  being  conducted  by  the  Commission  on  Technical  Specifications  for 
Interoperability  (TSIs),  taking  into  account  the  next  challenges  ahead,  linked  to 
various  aspects  of  innovation  like  digitalisation,  automation,  decarbonisation  and 
cybersecurity, but also the interest in stability and predictability. A major issue in 
rail is a chicken and egg problem whereby new innovations only have a business 
case if they are widely deployed on both rolling stock and infrastructure. The EU 
can  assist  in  overcoming  this  issue  by  joint  development  of  new  technologies 
(through  the  rail  research  partnership  with  rapid  follow  up  in  revised  standards), 
with  commonly  agreed  deployment  plans  and  via  funding  support  from  CEF.  In 
addition,  a  system  architecture  could  be  developed,  splitting  infrastructure  and 
rolling stock into modular components which would more readily be updated.     

4.3.3.3  Aviation Single Market 

4.3.3.3.1  Rules for air services 
823. The  Air  Services  Regulation513  provides  a  common  set  of  rules  regulating  the 
provision  of  air  services  within  the  Union,  i.e.  flights  carrying  passengers,  cargo 
and/or  mail  for  remuneration  and/or  hire.  It  contains  three  sets  of  rules  on  the 
licensing of EU carriers, the right of EU carriers to operate intra-EU flights and on 
pricing of intra-EU air services. 

824. The evaluation published in July 2019514 found that the Regulation had had overall 
positive  effects  and  brought  sizeable  EU  added  value  in  creating  the  EU  internal 
aviation  market.  On  the  other  hand,  it  identified a  number  of  shortcomings  in  all 
three  areas  covered  by  the  Regulation  which  may  disproportionally  affect  certain 
parts  of  the  market  and/or  stakeholders,  and  where  improvements  may  be 
beneficial for the good functioning of the internal market for aviation. 

825. An  assessment  of  the  impact  of  possible  policy  changes  was  launched  following 
the  publication  of  the  evaluation,  and  a  support  study  carried  out.  However,  the 
dramatic  changes to  the  situation facing the  air services sector resulting from the 
COVID-19  pandemic  means  that  further  analysis  is  required  as  to  the  expected 
impact  of  different  measures.  This  future  work  will  also  consider  how  the 
framework  may  be  adapted  to  better  support  the  recovery  and  resilience  of  the 

513 Regulation (EC) No 1008/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 September 2008 on common rules for the 
operation of air services in the Community (Recast), OJ L 293, 31.10.2008, p. 3. 
514 SWD(2019) 295 final 

191 

 
                                                      
sector in the medium to long-term, as well as to promote social and environmental 
sustainability as far as possible. 

4.3.3.3.2  Airport charges 

826. Effective  competition  between  suppliers,  in  this  case  airports,  encourages  cost-
effective  operations,  drives  down  prices  and  increases  quality.  It  also  enables 
operators  to  make  long-term  investments  in  facilities  and  services  that  match  the 
requirements of the customers, in this case airlines and air passengers. The absence 
of effective competition between airports could manifest itself in a range of ways. 
Airports  could  choose  to  maintain  airport  charges  at  current  levels  but  allow 
quality to fall or could seek to raise airport charges above levels warranted by costs 
faced by an efficient operator or by long-term investments. This could be the case 
where  airports  operate  efficiently  and  extract  excessively  high  margins,  which 
would  normally  not  be  achievable  in  a  competitive  market.  It  could  also  occur 
where  airports  operate  inefficiently  by  allowing  their  costs  to  rise  or  by  not 
adopting  cost-saving  or  innovative  technologies,  or  a  combination  of  these. 
Historically, the reason why governments impose economic regulation on airports 
(as  well  as  other  utility  and  public  infrastructure  providers),  has  been  to  curb  ex 
ante the risk that they misuse the significant market power they may hold.  

827. This  is  also  why  in  2009,  the  European  Union  adopted  a  Directive  on  airport 
charges  (“the  Airport  Charges  Directive”).  The  Airport  Charges  Directive  has 
established a common European framework for regulating essential features of the 
airport charges setting process. The Directive has introduced a number of process-
based  requirements  (consultation,  transparency,  non-discrimination)  that  airports 
and  airlines  need  to  comply  with  when  the  airport  charges  are  negotiated.  The 
oversight  and  enforcement  role  has  been  given  to  independent  supervisory 
authorities (ISAs). The Directive applies to EU/EEA airports whose annual traffic 
is  over  5  million  passenger  movements  and  to  the  airport  with  the  highest 
passenger movement in each Member State. 

828. In  July  2019,  the  Commission  published  an  evaluation  of  the  Directive.  This 
evaluation  has  indicated  that  some  of  the  elements  of  the  Directive  deserve 
consideration. Certain questions do not find an explicit answer in the Directive, for 
example  as  regards  the  requirements  pertaining  to  the  independence  of  the 
supervisory  authority  in  certain  cases.  It  is  also  not  clear  whether  the  Directive 
optimally  focuses  regulatory  intervention  on  cases  involving  a  risk  of  misuse  of 
significant  market  power,  and  ultimately  on  harm  being  imposed  on  EU 
consumers.  

829. As  announced  in  the  2015  Aviation  Strategy,  a  revision  of  the  Airport  Charges 
Directive  is  expected.  The  above  mentioned  evaluation  will  provide  the 
background to such revision.   

830. Capacity  constraints  at  airports  are  an  important  factor  in  assessing  the  level  of 
competition  between  airports.  At  certain  locations  (small  airports)  there  is 
overcapacity and the airports struggle to cover their costs – such airports are more 
proactive in attracting airlines. In contrast, and recognising the ongoing impact on 
future  demand  for  airport  services  of  the  COVID-19  pandemic  and  related 
uncertainties,  some  airports  (in  particular  the  largest)  have  struggled  with  the 
challenge  of  increasing  capacity  to  keep  pace  with  demand.  Such  congested 
airports have been less able to increase volumes and hence have had less incentive 
to reduce airport charges or improve further service quality. 

192 

 
4.3.3.3.3  Slots 

831. Airport  capacity  could  also  be  influenced  by  inefficient  allocation  of  slots.  The 
number of EU congested airports has increased from 98 to 104 in the last 8 years, 
to such an extent that at some of them no slots are available. More than 50 per cent 
of the congested airports worldwide are located in Europe. While the existing slot 
framework has managed to contain flight delays to a reasonable level, there are still 
issues regarding the capacity utilisation and the efficiency of the allocation of slots. 
Recent air carrier bankruptcies have shown the economic value of slots (in many 
cases,  slots  are  the  most  valuable  asset  air  carriers  have).  The  current  allocation 
system  might  inhibit  competition  between  air  carriers,  by  freezing  slot  allocation 
and by giving an advantage to incumbent airlines as a result of the ‘grandfathering’ 
rules. The "use it or lose it" rule has led to behaviours by air carriers holding on to 
slots  even  if  they  are  unable  to  use  them  profitably,  as  opposed  to  making  them 
available to competitors or new entrants. The widespread lack of transparency on 
the  available  capacity  at  airports  that  can  be  allocated,  as  well  as  on  some 
parameters used by the slot coordinator allocation, can affect the efficiency of the 
process.  

832. Further, an increased awareness of environmental concerns has started debates on 
how  to  include  environmental  criteria  in  the  slot  allocation  process.  Lastly,  the 
recent  COVID-19  pandemic  has  shown  that  the  resilience  of  the  Regulation  to 
quickly  and  efficiently  respond  to  the  needs  of  the  market  under  such 
circumstances should be improved. The Slot Regulation was quickly amended as a 
result  of  the  decrease  in  air  traffic  resulting  from  the  pandemic,  by  exempting 
airlines from certain slot use requirements. As the situation evolves and the market 
slowly recovers the issue is no longer whether airlines should simply be exempted 
from  the  rules  or  not.  It  is  rather  how  to  grant  airlines  relief  but  also  gradually 
return  to  a  new  normal.  All  the  foregoing  considerations  should  be  taken  into 
account when discussions on the 2011 proposal will resume.  

4.3.3.3.4  Groundhandling 

833. While capacity is a bottleneck both in the air and on the ground, air carriers cannot 
provide  services  without  efficient  and  high  quality  groundhandling  services. 
Whether the lack of capacity of groundhandling services themselves contributes to 
the  lack  of  airport  capacity  or  whether  improved  groundhandling  services  could 
contribute  to  unlock  capacity  issues  at  congested  airports  are  questions  to  be 
clarified. 

4.3.3.3.5  Computerised Reservation Systems 

834. There are questions as to whether the ex-ante competition Regulation on a Code of 
Conduct  for computerised reservation systems  (CRS) remains fit for purpose. An 
evaluation  of  the  Regulation  on  the  CRS  Code  of  Conduct515  found  that  in  the 
current context, the Regulation is less relevant than before for preventing distortion 
of competition  in  air ticket  distribution. At the same time, the evaluation showed 
that new developments,  such as the rise of new  players and distribution  channels 
for  air  tickets,  may  require  different  action  to  improve  market  efficiency  and 
encourage  fair  competition,  in  so  far  as  these  aspects  are  not  already  covered  by 
existing horizontal legislation. The Commission is preparing an impact assessment 

515 SWD(2020) 9 final, and Executive Summary SWD(2020) 11 final. 
 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/legislation/swd20200009.pdf 

193 

 
                                                      
of the full range of policy options, including possible revision, as a follow-up to the 
evaluation. 

4.3.3.3.6  Rules for air navigation services 

Providers of data and terminal air navigation service providers  

835. The  fact  that  the  European  Air  Traffic  Management  (ATM)  system  comprises  a 
patchwork  of  national  ATM  systems  operated  by  national  air  navigation  service 
providers  (ANSPs)  means  that  interoperability  and  network  efficiency  creates  an 
obstacle  for  sharing  data.  ATM  capacity  cannot  be  scaled  to  meet  changes  and 
fluctuations  in  demand.  In  2018,  delays  grew  disproportionately  compared  to 
traffic – traffic grew 14% but delays grew 273%. The main constraints are lack of 
flexibility  of  staff  and  technology.  The  seasonal  peaks  of  traffic  make  this  issue 
even more complex.  

836. The SESAR project has delivered new concepts and technologies but this has not 
translated  into  technology  uptake  at  a  sufficiently  rapid  pace,  partly  due  to  the 
challenge of availability of the required standards. A single market for ATM data 
services and terminal air navigation services is needed to foster interoperability and 
the  take-up  of  innovative  technologies  and  processes  of  providing  air  navigation 
services.  

837. Currently,  air  traffic  services  are  almost  everywhere  provided  by  vertically 
integrated  national  ANSPs.  Those  national  ANSPs  are  each  responsible  for 
producing,  processing  and  combining  this  data  to  make  it  available  to  their 
frontline operators, who will use it to provide air traffic services for airspace users. 
Most of this data is currently not shared between ANSPs. Remote provision of air 
traffic services is  not  possible as along as all needed ATM data are not  available 
across the network. The shift to new service delivery models could enable further 
rationalisation of the underlying infrastructure, whereby the focus will move from 
local infrastructure to service provision complying with performance requirements. 
Achieving a resilient European ATM system requires an evolution of the existing 
model  so  that  the  necessary  ATM  data  (such  as  communication,  navigation, 
satellite,  meteorological  and  aeronautical  information  data)  can  be  shared  and 
made  available  to  ANSP  throughout  the  Union.  The  onset  of  a  new  European 
market  for  ATM  data  services  would  need  to  be  underpinned  by  technical 
solutions,  legal  requirements  and  service  delivery  structures  in  order  to  function 
effectively. 

Regulatory oversight of air navigation services  

838. The  Single  European  Sky  has  contributed  to  certain  improvements  in  the 
performance  and  modernisation  of  the  European  ATM  sector  but  it  has  not  yet 
generated  the  expected  paradigm  change  in  terms  of  performance  by  ANSPs  and 
has  not  sufficiently  reduced  fragmentation  of  the  European  ATM  system. 
Currently, the Commission is the de-facto economic regulator of monopolistic air 
navigation  service  providers.  It  adopts  implementing  Decisions,  based  on  the 
advice  from  the  independent  Performance  Review  Body  (PRB).  Those  Decisions 
are adopted under qualified majority voting of Member States that are at the same 
time  the  owners  of  the  regulated  entities.  To  increase  the  efficiency  and 
effectiveness  of  the  economic  regulation,  the  Commission  proposed  in  its  recent 
SES2+  amended  proposal516  to  establish  a  fully  independent  European  regulator. 
Furthermore,  economic  regulatory  oversight  of  air  navigation  services  that  are 

516 COM(2020)579 final. 

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provided  under  monopolistic  conditions  is  not  effective.  Where  National 
Supervisory  Authorities  (NSAs)  lack  independence  from  entities  that  exert 
ownership  rights  over  regulated  service  providers,  conflicts  of  interest  inevitably 
hamper service quality and price.  

839. Defragmentation  of  the  European  airspace  requires  economic  regulation  and 
monitoring  across  borders  where  and  as  long  as  competitive  supply  of  services 
does not prevail. Presently, economic regulation lacks the necessary independence 
from the entities that exert ownership rights over the regulated undertakings. Users 
lack trust and confidence in national economic regulatory bodies, they do not lodge 
complaints  and  the  national  supervisory  authorities  generally  hesitate  to  take 
stringent decisions and do not apply penalties to enforce them. National economic 
regulators have no procedures to exchange dossiers, to handle cases jointly. They 
do  not  exchange  information  on  cases,  there  is  no  joint  investigation,  and  site 
inspections of service providers are not foreseen in Union legislation on economic 
regulation.     

840. According  to  a  survey  at  the  level  of  the  National  Supervisory  Authority 
Coordination  Platform-Performance  Working  Group,  airspace  users  do  not  lodge 
complaints  with  NSA  on  aspects  of  economic  regulation.  Economic  regulators 
have to be able to impose penalties where a regulated entity does not abide by their 
decision  or  does  not  give  access  to  requested  information.  Although  Single 
European  Sky  legislation  foresees  the  instrument  of  penalties,  most  national 
economic regulators have not used it. Similarly, judicial appeals against decisions 
of regulators or air navigation service providers have rarely occurred.  

841. Effective 

regulation  can  ensure 

transparency  and  effective  stakeholder 
consultation. Airlines should understand what they pay for and they should be able 
to curb excessive surpluses of service providers, as long as air navigation services 
are  not  provided  on  market  conditions.  Surpluses  of  regulated  undertakings  in 
excess  of  surpluses  in  competitive  sectors  can  indicate  monopolistic  pricing  and 
ineffective  price  regulation.  Conversely,  where  air  navigation  services  previously 
provided  under  monopolistic  service  provision  were  shifted  to  be  provided  under 
market  conditions,  the  competent  authorities  witnessed  a  significant  drop  of  the 
price with the same or better service quality.     

4.3.3.4  Waterborne Single Market 

4.3.3.4.1  Inland waterways transport market rules  

842. The existing legislation concerning the Inland waterways transport (IWT) market is 
globally  old  (adopted  between  the  1960s  and  1990s)  and  so  does  not  sufficiently 
take  into  account  the  changes  occurred  in  the  sector  as  well  as  the  geographical 
extension of the European Union.     

843. There  is  therefore  a  need  to  evaluate  the  existing  IWT  market  access  related 
legislation,  in  terms  notably  of  excessive  regulatory  burdens,  unintended  effects, 
overlaps, gaps, inconsistencies and/or obsolete measures which may have appeared 
over time and represent barriers for a smooth and fair IWT market.  

844. Finally, mobility within the IWT internal market is hampered by the absence of an 
appropriate legal framework on crewing requirements at EU level. Operators face 
various  requirements  when  operating  cross-border.  Current  applicable  national 
rules  regarding  crewing  requirements  (including  rest  times)  are  considered 

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outdated,  do  not  take  account  of  technical  and  educational  developments  and,  in 
general, of the workload of the crew. 

4.3.3.4.2  Mutual recognition of boating licences (maritime and inland waterways)  

845. Contrary to car driving licences, the national boating licences for recreational craft 
are  often  not  mutually  recognised  by  the  EU  Member  States,  nor  do  all  EU 
Member  States  recognise  the  UNECE’s  International  Certificate  for  Operators  of 
Pleasure  Craft  (ICC)517  and  there  are  no  EU  level  measures  to  address  this 
problem. This means for example that in case of moving from one Member State to 
another (e.g. from Belgium to Germany), EU citizens lose their boating licence.  

846. Improved mutual recognition of boating certificates and in particular the ICC could 
ensure free movement of people as well as support employment in the yachting and 
marinas  sector  thanks  to  increased  recreational  boating  in  and  between  Member 
States. Today the sector counts about 253,000 directly employed persons (372,000 
including indirect employment). 

4.3.3.4.3  Regulatory oversight of ships operating in EU  

847. In  relation  to  the  maritime  transport,  while  the  rulemaking  is  international,  the 
control and enforcement mechanisms are weak and essentially left to the individual 
States.  It  is  widely  acknowledged  that  lack  of  enforcement  is  the  weak  point  of 
international  maritime  regulation  since  IMO  is  a  decision  making  body  but  lacks 
any  control  and  enforcement  mandate.  Only  in  2016,  mandatory  audits  to  all  the 
IMO States were commenced with the aim of determining the extent to which they 
give full  and complete effect  to  their obligations and responsibilities as flag, port 
and  coastal  States.  However,  the  results  of  the  individual  audits  are  not  publicly 
available  and  there  is  no  system  of  sanctions  for  the  States  that  are  not 
promulgating and implementing the international conventions.  

848. Whereas through the EU a reasonable level playing field was achieved between EU 
Member States, this is not the case between EU flags and third country flags. The 
IMO  States  have  very  different  levels  of  capacity  to  give  full  effect  to  the 
international  rules.  This  creates  distortion  of  competition  and  undermines  the 
effectiveness of the regulatory framework since it may cost less for a shipowner to 
be registered under a flag of a third State that does not fully enforce all the rules – 
while ships still compete for the same cargo and sail anywhere in the world. 

849. As a result, the number of EU ships in the world fleet is slowly decreasing. Today, 
the  Commission's  2004 Guidelines  on  State  aid  to  maritime  transport  include  the 
tonnage tax to  address  this  issue. Under tonnage tax schemes, maritime transport 
companies pay taxes on the basis of the ship tonnage (i.e. the size of the shipping 
fleet) rather than on the basis of their actual taxable profits. Such schemes can be 
approved by the Commission under EU State aid rules. Without such schemes, an 
even greater number of ships would be flagged out for tax reasons.  

850. Apart  from  the  competitiveness  aspect,  this  also  poses  a  maritime  and 
environmental  safety  problems.  Weak  enforcement  of 
international  rules 
undermines flag State responsibility as the first line of defence to ensure maritime 
safety. Coordinated and harmonised enforcement mechanisms based on port State 
Control  also  involving  the  European  Maritime  Safety  Agency  (EMSA)  are 

517  International  Certificate  for  Operators  of  Pleasure  Craft,  Resolution  No.  40 adopted by  the  UNECE  Working  Party  on  Inland 
Water Transport 

196 

 
                                                      
available  when  it  comes  to  ensuring  implementation  of  the  international  rules  on 
board vessels calling to EU ports regardless of flag. 

4.3.4  Social aspects  

851. The transport sector is a major contributor to the EU economy, supporting millions 
of jobs across the EU and being a key driver of European integration. The sector 
represented around 5% of the EU workforce in 2017.  

852. European social standards and rules protecting consumers are among the strongest 
of  the  world.  Yet,  certain  developments  puts  those  aspects  at  risk:  the  economic 
downturn  due  to  the  pandemic,  uneven  level  playing  field  amid  growing 
international competition, erosion of traditional social structures and demographic 
change, are among the challenges that should be addressed to keep a high-skilled 
workforce  in  Europe,  protect  workers’  rights  and  to  ensure  that  the  green  and 
digital  transitions  are  just  and  inclusive518.  To  foster  mobility  of  people,  the 
transport  sector  should  also  remain  affordable,  available  (including  for  persons 
with  disabilities519  and  reduced  mobility  or  living  in  rural  and  remote  areas), 
accessible, and offer high quality services. 

853. Mobility  is  a  critical  aspect  of  social  inclusion  and  an  important  determinant  of 
well-being  including  for  vulnerable  groups  of  society.  Transport  fulfils  a  basic 
need  and  has  an  enabling  function  insofar  that  it  affects  household’s  income  as 
well  as  citizens’  ability  to  integrate  into  society  and  the  labour  market.  For 
example, public transport enables access to various public services, such as health 
services,  childcare,  education,  long-term  care,  housing,  labour  market  and  social 
services as well as leisure activities. It follows from Principle 20 of the European 
Pillar  of  Social  Rights  that  certain  transport  services  can  be  considered  essential 
services to which everyone has the right to access. The same principle also states: 
‘Support  for  access  to  such  services  shall  be  available  for  those  in  need.’  Yet, 
important  barriers  that  can  make  it  difficult  for  people  to  access  these  services 
include  income,  age,  gender,  disability  or  reduced  mobility  and  territorial 
inequalities/ spatial segregation.  

4.3.4.1  Workers’ rights and transition to automation and sustainability 

854. Workers  in  the  transport  sector  face  a  number  of  challenges  when  it  comes  to 

social rules and their application.  

855. First,  it  might  be  difficult  to  identify  applicable  social  rules.  Some  mobile 
transport workers cross one or several borders on a daily basis. It can therefore be 
sometimes challenging to identify which  are the applicable labour law and social 
security  rules.  A  large  majority  of  competences  regarding  social  security  and 

518  This  Commission  is  further  strengthening  social  dialogue  and  social  partner  involvement  in  the  definition  of  EU  initiatives. 
President Ursula von der Leyen stressed her firm commitment to strengthen social dialogue and to engage with social partners at the 
EU level across all of our priorities, including sectoral initiatives having a social dimension. The Commission Communication of 27 
May  on  the  Recovery  Plan  also  underlined  the  need  for  a  close  cooperation  with  social  partners  to  achieve  a  fair  and  inclusive 
recovery. In times of economic crisis, a well-functioning social dialogue becomes even more important to create the conditions for a 
sustainable recovery.  
In this context, DG MOVE and DG EMPL organised a dedicated hearing with all the transport social partners on the Strategy for 
Sustainable and Smart Mobility. The objective of the hearing was to complement the open public consultation through a targeted 
consultation  of  social  partners.  Moreover,  social  partners  were  given  the  opportunity  to  send  written  material,  in  addition  to  the 
formal Open Public Consultation. 
519 The European Disability Forum estimates the number of persons with disabilities to be over 100 million in Europe. 

197 

 
                                                      
applicable  law  lays  in  the  hands  of  Member  States.  This  is  a  problem  for  the 
protection of workers’ rights and for the level playing field.  

856. Recent  studies520  have  shown  that  40%  of  drivers  in  the  road  transport  sector 
across the EU work regularly more than the allowed maximum  average  48 hours 
per  week.  The  picture  is  similar  in  other  transport  modes.  Atypical  legal 
constructions  also  often  divert  legal  responsibilities  and  may  result  in  less 
favourable working conditions for workers. 

857. In  maritime  transport,  the  jurisdiction  relevant  for  social  security  protection 
changes  frequently  as  the  consequence  of  seafarers  operating  on  relatively  short-
term contracts. It becomes an incoherent patchwork. 

858. There is also a need for clarifying the social security rules for the inland waterway 
transport sector. There are currently several regimes applicable on EU waterways. 
There  is  a  need  for  clarifying  key  concepts  and  applicable  rules  as  well  as  for  a 
single regime at EU level.  

859. In a liberalised and competitive aviation market that requires greater flexibility and 
cost-effectiveness,  airlines’  business  models  have  evolved  significantly.  In  this 
context,  various  employment  arrangements  and  practices  have  developed  in  the 
sector.  Low-cost  flights,  that  typically  operate  point  to  point,  grew  by  61%  from 
2007 to 2016. With the increase in point to point routes, the number of operational 
bases has steadily grown since 2008, and aircraft and aircrews of the same airline 
are increasingly based outside the principal place of business of the airline.  

860. This  trend  has  intensified  the  cross-border  nature  of  aircrew  activities  and  added 
complexity to their legal status under EU and national law. While all staff benefit 
from the protection offered by EU law they may enjoy different rights and levels of 
protection  depending  on  the  national  law  that  applies  to  them.  It  has  created 
uncertainty as to what labour law applies to the employment contract of aircrews 
assigned to a home base outside the principal place of business of the airline, how 
to apply the existing rules and what court has jurisdiction but also which authority 
should  ensure  enforcement  of  their  national  labour  legislation  in  the  case  of 
aircrews  based  in  their  country  but  working  for  an  air  carrier  seated  in  another 
country.  Moreover,  the  contractual  home  base  may  not  always  correspond  to  the 
place from where the aircrews effectively start and finish their duty.  

861. Taking  into  account  structural  changes  in  the  aviation  market,  the  Commission 
decided  to  work  on  how  to  improve  the  social  agenda  for  aircrews.  In  2015,  the 
Commission  presented  an  Aviation  strategy  for  Europe,  which  highlighted  the 
social  agenda  in  aviation  as  a  priority  and  commissioned  soon  after  a  study  on 
employment  and  working  conditions  of  aircrews  in  the  EU  internal  aviation 
market.521  According  to  this  study,  the  majority  of  aircrew  members  who 
responded to the survey (82% of pilots and 88% of cabin crew) said that the labour 
law applicable to their contract is that of their contractual home base. Air carriers 
who  tend  to  operate  multiple  operational  bases  where  aircrews  are  based  were 
found to be more likely to apply the law corresponding to the country where they 
have their principle place of business, regardless of where their aircrews are based.  

862. In  March  2019,  the  Commission  issued  a  report  on  maintaining  and  promoting 
high  social  standards  in  aviation,  focusing  on  aircrews.  The  Commission,  in  the 

520 Ex-post evaluation of social legislation in road transport and its enforcement, Final report, Page 127.  
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/facts-fundings/evaluations/doc/2016-ex-post-eval-road-transport-social-
legislation-final-report.pdf 
521 https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/97abb7bb-54f3-11e9-a8ed-01aa75ed71a1  

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context of its expert group on social matters related to aircrews, has been looking 
at the specific issue of enforcement of applicable labour law and its application to 
aircrews in the light of existing EU law and at how this could be further improved 
by identifying best practices and providing recommendations. A document drawn 
up  in  September  2020  on  this  subject,  highlights  in  particular  the  need  to  further 
improve  enforcement  of  applicable  labour  law  by  the  authorities  of  the  country 
where  the  aircrews  concerned  are  based  for  the  better  protection  of  aircrews  and 
the proper functioning of the internal market, and to raise awareness for the benefit 
of both crew members and airlines. 

863. In  this  context,  an  updated  Practice  guide  on  Jurisdiction  and  applicable  law  in 
international disputes between the employee and the employer was adopted by the 
European  Judicial  Network  in  November  2020  to  reflect  all  the  important 
clarifications brought by the European Court of Justice in its judgments since the 
first  Guide  was  published  in  2016.  Its  aim  is  to  guide  practitioners  and  provide 
further clarity and better information on the rules on jurisdiction and applicable law 
and  consequently  assure  better  protection  of  aircrew  and  a  level  playing  field 
between  carriers.  The  Updated  Practice  Guide  will  contribute  to  the  correct 
enforcement of the rights that workers draw from EU and national law.  

864. In the field of Air Traffic Management, where labour agreements are concluded at 
the national level, the Commission has invited staff associations522 to participate in 
the developments of a roadmap on the implementation of the Single European Sky 
reform.  

865. Airport  groundhandling  services  are  a  competitive  and  labour-intensive  industry. 
Such  industry  features  have  led  to  pressure  to  reduce  costs  which  may  have 
impacted working and employment conditions. The Commission is carrying out an 
evaluation of the Groundhandling Directive which will look at possible unintended 
social  impacts  on  groundhandling  workers.  Moreover,  the  work  undertaken  by 
EASA on safety standards on this matter should allow to improve the situation.  

866. Second, the level  of  social protection can be insufficient.  Through the European 
Pillar of Social Rights, the EU works to safeguard the rights of citizens by ensuring 
equal  opportunities  and  access  to  the labour market,  fair working  conditions,  and 
social  protection  and  inclusion.  EU  employment  legislation  guarantees  minimum 
levels of protection that apply to everyone living and working in the EU. The EU 
provides  common  rules  to  protect  social  security  rights  when  moving  within 
Europe523.The rules on social security coordination do not replace national systems 
with a single European one. All Member States remain free to decide who is to be 
insured  under  their  legislation,  which  benefits  are  granted  and  under  what 
conditions. There can be big discrepancies between Member States.  

867. These discrepancies, if coupled with disregard for applicable social rules by certain 
operators  and  with  ineffective  enforcement  by  authorities,  can  give  rise  to 
precarious employment practices and harsh working conditions, and lead to social 
dumping. The lack of proper enforcement of social rules occurs too often. These 
cover  low  detection  of  infringements  to  social  rules  and  poor  execution  of 
penalties.  This  is  partially  linked  to  the  above  mentioned  problem  of  unclear 
applicable rules. Social security and applicable law lays this responsibility with the 
Member States.  

522 In the context of EGHD: Expert Group on the Human Dimension of the Single European Sky 
523 Regulation (EC) No 883/2004, social security coordination. 

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868. Traditionally the port labour market has in many places been subject to regulations 
and collective agreements necessary to adapt to the irregularity of port traffic and 
the ensuing fluctuations in labour demand. The current evolutions in the shipping 
sector, in particular the development of megaships, with massive volumes of cargo 
to  be  loaded/unloaded,  brings  additional  constraints  on  the  organisation  of  port 
labour and on working conditions.  

869. In the maritime transport sector, precarious working conditions often stem from 
fierce cost-based competition in the sector, as EU carriers face strong competition 
from  non-EU  carriers  in  particular  from  Asia.  Since  seafarers  can  be  recruited 
anywhere  in  the  world,  shipowners  increasingly  tend  to  recruit  seafarers  through 
manning  companies  in  low  cost  labour  supplying  States,  including  for  vessels 
flying  the  EU  MS  flag.  The  salary  is  low  compared  to  European  standards  and 
social security protection is scattered between flag States. The difference in labour 
cost  can  therefore  be  quite  considerable  on  and  between  vessels  operating  under 
the  same  national  jurisdiction.  In  practice,  this  can  mean  that  national  legislation 
such as on minimum wage can be circumvented. Other national rules, such as anti-
discrimination  legislation  on  the  prohibition  of  mandatory  pregnancy  testing,  can 
also be circumvented when the seafarers is recruited though manning companies in 
third countries before arriving to Europe to serve on a vessel.     

870. Inland  navigation  is  not  an  exception  and  also  face  challenges  to  improve 
workers’ working conditions, in particular in the river cruise sector. Concerns have 
also been raised about the application of the rules on posting of workers due to the 
highly mobile nature of the workforce as well as the heavy administrative burden 
faced by the small and medium-sized enterprises that make up most of the inland 
navigation sector. 

871. In waterborne transport,  the enforcement  authorities therefore tend to  focus more 
on vessels safety related issues as low hanging fruits since controls on working and 
living  conditions  (social  rules)  are  more  difficult  to  detect.  Besides  in  inland 
navigation,  there is  no extra-territoriality principle (as it exists  in  road transport). 
The fact that the offences committed in a Member State during a journey cannot be 
sanctioned in any other Member State for a certain period considerably decreases 
the effectiveness of the enforcement. 

872. Working  and  living  conditions  for  seafarers  are  regulated  through  the  Maritime 
Labour  Convention  of  the  International  Labour  Organization  (ILO)  setting 
minimum  standards.  Those  minimum  standards  are  in  most  essentials  retained  at 
EU level in  the  Directive implementing the  European social partner’s agreement. 
Control issues at EU level are incorporated into the overall EU legislation for flag 
and port State control. The EU sectoral social dialogue committee in the port sector 
provides  the  social  partners  with  a  framework  to  develop  a  joint  approach  to  the 
social  challenges  related  to  port  labour  relations,  including  working  conditions, 
health  and  safety  questions,  digitalisation,  training  requirements  and  professional 
qualifications. 

873. The  International  Maritime  Organization’s  Convention  on  Standards  of  Training, 
Certification and Watchkeeping for Seafarers (STCW) ensures the minimum level 
of training for seafarers on board vessels and it is implemented in to EU law by the 
Directive  2008/106  as  amended.  The  STCW  Convention  includes  a  common 
system  of  EU-wide  recognition  of  third  countries  that  comply  with  the 
requirements therein. The systems in third countries is monitored regularly by the 
Commission  with  the  assistance  of  European  Maritime  Safety  Agency.  This 

200 

 
monitoring  scheme  also  includes  verification  of  the  compliance  by  the  Member 
States.  

874. In road transport, the preparatory work524 leading to the Commission’s proposal 
in 2017 (Mobility Package 1) has identified a number of issues behind the problem 
of inadequate working and social conditions of drivers, such as illicit employment 
practices, long periods away from home and inadequate resting facilities as well as 
issues related to enforcement. Regulation (EU) 2020/1054525 adopted in July 2020 
aims  to  address  these  issues  (see  also  section  3.5).  The  top  priority  of  the 
Commission is to ensure common understanding of the legislation and monitor its 
consistent application and effective enforcement by the Member States.  

875. The set of rules adopted in July 2020 under Mobility Package I not only clarifies 
and strengthens certain provisions in the road transport legislation but also includes 
enhanced  enforcement  requirements.  The  new  enforcement  regime  should 
significantly improve compliance with the social and market rules in road transport 
by eliminating precarious employment and business practices. 

876. Platform work is  understood as all labour provided through, on, or mediated by 
online  platforms  in  a  wide  range  of  sectors,  including  transport  (drivers  and 
delivery  workers).  The  main  challenges  identified  in  a  recent  study526  include 
employment  status,  information  available  to  the  workers  about  their  working 
conditions, dispute resolution, collective rights and non-discrimination. According 
to  this  study,  national  legislation  on  working  conditions  and  social  protection  of 
platform workers is still rare527. There is some sector-specific legislation, such as 
on  personal  transportation  services  and  food  delivery  services  provided  through 
platforms. It regulates the working conditions and social protection for persons in 
non-standard  employment  or  enhances  the  rights  and  protection  of  the  self-
employed. Given that platform workers are mostly treated as self-employed, their 
collective  representation  poses  a  challenge  and  trade  unions  do  not  necessarily 
defend  the  interests  of  platform  workers528.  On  30  June  2020,  the  Commission 
launched  a  process  –  comprising  both  a  public  consultation  and  informal 
consultations  with  stakeholders  –  to  ensure  that  the  EU  competition  rules  do  not 
stand  in  the  way  of  collective  bargaining  for  vulnerable  self-employed  people, 
including platform workers.529 

877. Overall,  changes  in  the  sector,  in  particular  those  relating  to  automation  and 
digitalisation are bringing many challenges. Jobs in the transport sector, especially 
low- and middle-skilled jobs, are at high risk of automation. At the same time, the 
ongoing  digital  transformation  presents  new  opportunities,  such  as  an  improved 
working  environment  or  completely  new  jobs.  A  recent  consultation  of  the  SME 
panel revealed that transport companies on average do not think their labour force 
is  well  prepared  for  the  transition  to  automation  and  digitalisation,  almost  half 
(44%) thinks it is even insufficiently or not prepared at all. Over one in three (37%) 
responding  transport  SMEs  indicate  that  it  has  a  need  for  guidance  on  how  to 

524 SWD(2017) 186 final 
525  Regulation  (EU)  2020/1054  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  15  July  2020  amending  Regulation  (EC)  No 
561/2006 as regards minimum requirements on maximum daily and weekly driving times, minimum breaks and daily and weekly 
rest periods and Regulation (EU) No 165/2014 as regards positioning by means of tachographs; OJ L 249, 31.7.2020, p. 1. 
526  European  Commission 
https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?langId=en&catId=89&newsId=9582&furtherNews=yes#navItem-1  
527 The study found that France is the only Member State that has enacted national legislation with a view to improving the labour 
and social rights of platform workers. 
528 Eurofound (2019), Platform work: Maximising the potential while safeguarding standards, Publications Office of the European 
Union, Luxembourg. 
529 European Commission press release IP/20/1937, 30 June 2020, "Competition: The European Commission launches a process to 
address the issue of collective bargaining for the self-employed". 

the  working  conditions  of  platform  workers, 

to  gather  evidence  on 

(2020),  Study 

201 

 
                                                      
anticipate or manage the transition towards automation and digitalisation. Another 
33% indicate it does not know whether additional guidance is needed, which might 
be an indication of insufficient insights in how automation and digitalisation might 
affect the future of work and the workforce. 

878. At this stage, the exact pace, scope and impact of automation in transport is unclear 
and  estimates  of  how  many  jobs  or  tasks  will  become  redundant  or  will  change 
considerably in the future vary significantly.  

879. In aviation, digitalisation is not expected to generate unemployment in Air Traffic 
Management  but  will  require  the  definition  of  new  competency  profiles,  which 
shall be supported by amended regulations for the licensing and training of traffic 
controllers and technical personnel. Some reskilling of staff will also be necessary, 
notably by adapting the training methods to more automated tools.  

880. Digitalisation  and  automation  also  require  a  significant  adaptation  of  port 
workers’ training and skills and may have profound impact on local communities. 
Under  the  research  topic  “The  Port  of  the  Future”  Horizon  2020  finances  four 
research  projects  looking  at  the  possible  future  developments  of  ports  and  port 
operations530.  The  Connecting  Europe  Facility  is  funding  the  project  iTerminals 
4.0,  which  will  develop  and  perform  Internet  of  Things  (IoT)  solutions  and 
operational pilots at eight European container terminals531. In a recent study of the 
potential  and  impact  of  transport  automation,  the  World  Maritime  University 
points to the rapid development of port automation and the importance of training 
and reskilling of the workforce in ports532.  

881.  At  the  same  time,  development  of  new  technologies  is  contributing  in  changing 
the  shipping  industry.  Equally,  the  role  of  seafarers  and  crew  members  in  inland 
navigation  changes or is expected to  change as technology on board and onshore 
change.  Paper  charts  are  replaced  by  electronic,  navigation  started  to  rely  on 
autopilot, engine room are frequently operating unattended, thus in general systems 
on board becoming more autonomous and able to make decisions. This requires a 
change of the education, training and employment philosophy in the sector. Since 
some  position  would  become  redundant  as  replaced  by  the  new  technology 
seafarers,  crew,  still  being  needed,  would  have  to  become  more  specialised  and 
learn to operate surrounded by technology as a new co-worker.  

882. Transition to more sustainable transport will also impact the workforce. As stated 
in  the  Communication  on  the  European  Green  Deal,  pro-active  re-skilling  and 
upskilling  are  necessary  to  reap  the  benefits  of  the  ecological  transition.  The 
proposed  European  Social  Fund+,  Just  Transition  Fund  as  well  as  the  Recovery 
and Resilience Facility will play an important role in helping Europe’s workforce 
to acquire the skills they need to transfer from declining sectors to growing sectors 
and to adapt to new processes.533 

See  DocksTheFuture 

https://www.corealis.eu/, 

https://www.docksthefuture.eu/,  COREALIS 

530 
https://www.portforward-project.eu/, and PIXEL https://pixel-ports.eu/.   
531 See https://ec.europa.eu/inea/en/connecting-europe-facility/cef-transport/2018-eu-tm-0135-s 
532  See  World  Maritime  University  (2019),  Transport  2040:  Automation,  Technology,  Employment  –  The  Future  of  Work, 
https://commons.wmu.se/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1071&context=lib_reports 
533 Furthermore the 2019 annual edition of ‘Employment and Social Developments in Europe’ acknowledges that “If well managed, 
the  shift  towards  a  climate-neutral  economy  can  provide  employment  opportunities  for  all  skill  levels.  The  sectors  supporting  a 
transition  towards  green  jobs  are  mainly  construction,  transport,  manufacturing  and  services  sectors.  The  highest  proportions  of 
employment  in  green(able)  jobs  are  found  in  construction  (73%),  transport  (61%)  and  in  manufacturing,  energy  and  waste 
management and professional service activities There is a contrast in skill composition between new and emerging green jobs on the 
one  hand  and  non-green  ‘green  rival’  jobs  on  the  other.  This  contrast  is  significant  for  all  sectors,  notably  manufacturing, 
construction and transport, which have high proportions of workers in low-skilled employment in non-green jobs. This illustrates the 

Forward 

Port 

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883. In recent years, the increasing globalisation of value chains, new business models 
and  forms  of  work,  as  well  as  technological  developments,  put  the  industrial 
relations  systems  face  to  critical  challenges  and  ask  for  revitalised  industrial 
policies in  the transport sectors. Trade unions, employer organisations and public 
authorities  play  an  important  role  in  the  governance  of  the  employment 
relationship, through collective bargaining and sectoral collective agreements. The 
improvement  of  the  functioning  of  social  dialogue  and  adequate  involvement  of 
social  partners  are  crucial  to  ensure  resilience  of  the  transport  labour  market  on 
both short and long term. 

4.3.4.2  Skills and attractiveness of transport jobs 

884. The  success  of  EU  transport  largely  depends  on  the  availability  of  a  skilled 
workforce. There is a risk of skills mismatch for certain transport sectors already 
today and the workforce will need to keep pace with changing skill requirements 
caused  by  automation  and  digitalisation,  as  well  as  by  transition  to  a  more 
sustainable mobility. The availability of skilled workers may also be impacted by 
the  COVID-19  pandemic534  which  particularly  hit  the  transport  sector  and  its 
workers. 

885. Any  shortage  of  transport  workers535  could  compromise  growth  and  reduce 
European  connectivity.  This  risk exists in  all modes with  an ageing  workforce  (a 
third of workers are above 50 years old and mostly male536). This is notably due to 
the lack of attractiveness of the sector, in particular for young people and women.  

886. Furthermore, as explained in the previous section, the transport sector often suffers 
from harsh working conditions. These include atypical hours, long periods away 
from  home  or  frequent  problems  of  harassment  and  lead  to  a  general  lack  of 
attractiveness of jobs in the transport sector. 

887. This  lack  of  attractiveness  and  the  need  to  make  the  transport  sector  more 
appealing  to  women  were  also  raised  by  stakeholders  in  their  responses  to  the 
public consultations on the ‘Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy’: a survey of 
more than 2,770 women transport workers from across Europe showed that “what 
is most needed in the transport sector is to eliminate the entrenched male culture, 
to  provide  safe  workplaces  where  women  are  not  exposed  to  violence  and 
harassment  by  colleagues,  superiors  or  customers,  to  have  full  access  to  proper 
sanitary facilities, to end unequal pay and to foster a good work-life balance”537.  

888. A further reason for not being appealing is the lack of information about what the 
sector  does  and  what  the  career  prospects  are  with  sometimes  reduced 
employability  and  overall  attractiveness  of  careers  due 
to  very  specific 
qualifications. The European sectoral social dialogue committees, the first Mobility 

skills challenges of the transition to the green economy and the need for significant upskilling in these sectors. The skills profile of 
new and emerging green jobs, the fastest growing category, can be seen as a proxy for future skill needs in these sectors.” 
534  This  is  notably  highlighted  by  aviation  professionals  and  workers’  associations  in  the  context  of  their  COVID-19  statement 
https://www.eurocockpit.be/news/covid-19-aviation-time-rethink,  https://www.etf-europe.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/COVID-
19-statement-ETF-230920.pdf 
535 For instance, there is an acute need for skilled drivers in freight and passenger road transport sector. According to IRU research, 
Europe  is  facing  the  most  acute  driver  shortage  in  decades.  In  2019,  the  freight  sector  had  a  driver  shortage  of  23%  and  the 
passenger transport sector of 19%. This is a growing trend as IRU estimates that the shortage of freight drivers will rise to 36% in 
2020. Awaiting the automation of transport operations the sector needs swift short term solutions to satisfy the transport demand, 
even though disturbed temporarily by COVID-19 pandemic.  
536 According to the European Transport Workers’ Federation, the average age of trucks drivers is around 45, while the average age 
of bus and coach drivers is 55 years plus, and an estimated 98% of the drivers are male. 
537 Survey by the European Transport Workers’ Federation. 

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Package  proposed  in  2017  and  the  ‘Women  in  Transport  –  EU  Platform  for 
change’538 have started addressing these issues. 

889. To  fight  today’s  driver  shortage,  comprehensive  measures  are  needed.  For 
instance,  for  long  distance  road  transport,  the  establishment  of  a  comprehensive 
network of safe and secure parking will contribute to better working conditions and 
allow  easier  access  to  the  profession  for  female  drivers.  The  emerging  highly 
automated  driving  technologies  may  help  to  address  the  issue  of  shortage  and 
gender imbalance of drivers in the road sector. Driverless lorries in long-distance 
operations  and  remotely  controlled  vehicles  may  attract  newcomers,  including 
women,  with  the  right  skillsets  required  to  operate  or  monitor  such  highly 
automated vehicles.  

learning  programmes  and 

890. The  ageing  of  the  transport  workforce  also  increases  the  need  for  developing 
lifelong 
increasing  recruitment  efforts  for  new 
technology-based skills  and knowledge.  In particular for key  occupations  such as 
train drivers this will be crucial to fully tap into the potential of digitalisation and 
automation.  

891. Removing  more  and  more  staff  from  train  technical  functions  will  make  them 
available for service jobs at terminals and station platforms or on board trains and 
may  thus  increase  the  quality  and  safety  of  services  and  help  reducing  cost.  The 
opportunities offered by the technological innovation could help identifying ways 
to  attract  young  people  and  women  to  the  sector.  Training  and  communication 
skills must adapt accordingly. The EU rules on the certification of train drivers is 
an  important  contribution  in  helping  skillset  to  remain  adequate  in  changing 
circumstances.  Should  these  rules  be  revised,  the  impact  of  technological 
developments must be taken into account in order to shape the skills and job profile 
of future train drivers. 

892. In  aviation,  the level  of  attractiveness  of the sector, which still remains generally 
high, has however been somewhat degraded over the past years due to fierce cost-
based competition among market players. The situation is different in the segment 
of  air  traffic  management  workers,  where  wages  remain  attractive  but  working 
conditions may be affected locally by staff shortages and increasing requirements 
for flexibility in work organisation.  

893. The attractiveness of waterborne transport suffers from harsh working conditions, 
such  as  atypical  hours,  long  periods  away  from  home,  and  reported  cases  of 
harassment.  A further  reason for the lack of appeal  is  the scarcity of information 
about what the sector does and what the career prospects are.  

894. Maritime  transport  appears  to  have  continuing  difficulties  in  attracting  European 
youngsters. One of the reasons include a general perception of harsh working and 
living conditions, and the absence of a modern working environment i.e. access to 
internet on board of vessels. The seafarer’s profession has also taken a reputational 
hit  from  reported  experiences  of  forced  labour,  working  under  unacceptable 
conditions. 

895. Waterborne is a sector predominantly employing males, with women representing 
no  more  than  2%  of  seafarers  globally.  From  a  geographical  perspective,  the 
majority  of  seafarers  originates  from  Asia  (Philippines,  India  and  Turkey)  and 
Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Russia). In the EU, the main labour supplying countries 
are Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and Croatia. 

538 https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/social/women-transport-eu-platform-change_en 

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896. EU social policy in maritime transport aims at ensuring decent living and working 
conditions  for  seafarers,  as  well  as  adequate  social  protection  to  maintain  the 
attractiveness of the profession; alongside enhancing adequate education levels. A 
main  vehicle  for  Commission  policy  development  of  social  issues  in  waterborne 
transport  has  also  been  the  sectoral  social  dialogue  between  the  social  partners. 
However,  as  of  today  there  is  no  systematic  EU  dialogue  at  expert  level  with 
Member State on these issues.         

897. The Commission has initiated a number of projects and studies, among which the 
“SkillSea  Project”  under  the  “Blueprint  for  sectoral  cooperation  on  skills”,  to  be 
concluded  in  2023.  The  Commission  also  recently  published  a  study  on  social 
aspects within maritime transport sector. The study examined policy achievements, 
gaps and shortcomings on social aspects since the ad-hoc Task Force on Maritime 
Employment  and  Competitiveness  (2011)  was  set-up;  its  recommendations  are 
being further discussed with European social partners and Member States. 

898. To increase the accessibility of transport, professionals also need to be trained on 
accessibility  and  on  providing  assistance  to  passengers  with  disabilities  and 
reduced mobility. The legislative developments enhancing accessibility for persons 
with disabilities and reduced mobility and requiring the provision of assistance for 
these persons provide new business and job opportunities in these markets. 

899. The  European  Commission  remains  active  at  all  international  fora  in  discussions 
and  actions  on  adapting  the  global  regulation  to  new  realities  of  the  transport 
workforce,  taking  into  account  the  pandemic  crisis,  as  well  as  to  make  transport 
more resilient to any crisis in the future. 

4.3.4.3  Access to transport: affordability, availability and accessibility 

900. Affordability of transport is a crucial issue. Indeed, whereas the Single Market in 
transport led to lower prices and more choices, increasing Europeans’ connectivity, 
mobility remains expensive for people who are more vulnerable. In fact, for users 
of transport services in the EU, consumer prices for operation of personal transport 
equipment and for transport services have increased at a faster pace between 2005 
and  2018  than  overall  consumer  price  inflation.539  Yet,  the  share  of  transport  in 
final household expenditure on consumption has remained basically unchanged at 
13%  from  2005  to  2018.  This  figure  varies  depending  on  the  Member  State  -  in 
2018,  the  share  of  household  expenditure  devoted  to  transport  was  largest  in 
Slovenia  (16.9%),  ahead  of  Lithuania  and  Luxembourg  (both  15.8%),  and  the 
smallest in Slovakia (6.8%), Croatia (9.7%) and Czechia (10.4%). 

901. The  price  index  for  fuels  and  lubricants  for  the  operation  of  personal  transport 
equipment  has  increased  by  9%  from  2015  to  2019  (the  price  index  for  overall 
transport  services,  purchase  and  operation  of  personal  transport  equipment  has 
increased  by  8%  over  this  period).  The  consumer  price  index  for  passenger 
transport  services  has  also  increased  from  2015  to  2019,  although  differently  for 
each  mode:  rail:  +  5%;  aviation:  +  7%;  waterborne:  +4%;  and  road  transport: 
+5%.540 Yet, the share of transport in final household expenditure on consumption 
has remained basically unchanged at 13% from 2005 to 2018. 

539  As  measured  by  the  harmonised  index  of  consumer  prices.  Source:  European  Commission  (2020):  EU  Transport  in  Figures. 
Statistical Pocketbook 2020.  
540 Source: European Commission (2020): EU Transport in Figures. Statistical Pocketbook 2020. 

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Figure 40: Share of different items in household consumption expenditure in the EU541 

902. In the EU-27, 2.3 % of the population cannot afford public transport and in some 
Member States more than 5% of the population cannot afford public transport (e.g. 
Romania, Bulgaria). Low-income households struggle even more to afford public 
transport. On average, 5.4% of the population with the lowest income in the EU-27 
cannot afford public transport, and in some Member States this share can reach up 
to 20 % (19.5% Bulgaria, 17.3% Hungary, 11.9 % Romania)542. 

903. In 2018, private households in the EU-27 spent EUR 931 billion or roughly 13% of 
their  total  consumption  on  transport-related  items.  Around  30  %  of  this  sum 
(around  EUR  262  billion)  was  used  to  purchase  vehicles,  around  half  (EUR  510 
billion)  was  spent  on  the  operation  of  personal  transport  equipment  (e.g.  to  buy 
fuel  for  the  car)  and  the  rest  (EUR  159  billion)  was  spent  for  transport  services 
(e.g. bus, train, plane tickets).  

904. As  regards  to  private  cars:  the  EU  counts  531  cars  per  1,000  inhabitants. 
Luxembourg  has  the  highest  car  density  in  the  EU  (690  per  1,000  people)  and 
Latvia the lowest (329). In Latvia, nearly half of all household (48.8%) do not own 
a  car,  while  more  than  31%  of  French  families  have  two  cars  (ACEA  Report, 
2019). The daily use of  cars is  also  closely  related to  income levels: respondents 
who  almost  never  have  difficulties  paying  bills  are  more  likely  to  use  a  car  on  a 
daily  basis  (52%)  than  those  who  have  difficulties  paying  their  bills  most  of  the 
time  (37%),  so  car  ownership  and  use  can  be  correlated  with  income  and  wealth 
levels.  On  average,  6.5  %  of  all  EU  citizens  cannot  afford  a  car  and  in  some 
countries, this share exceeds 20% (Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania).     

905. When  choosing  between  different  transport  modes,  the  unemployed  are  the  most 
likely  to  use  urban  public  transport:  23  %  against  an  average  of  19  % 

541 Source: Eurostat. 
542 Source: Eurostat, EU-SILC Survey, data for 2014 

206 

 
 
 
                                                      
(Eurobarometer 406, 2013). In Brussels, 53% of households do not have access to 
a car.  Two thirds of the poorer households in Berlin do not have access to a car.  
Policies  aimed  at  addressing  the  “affordability  of  car  use”  therefore  have  a  very 
different impact depending on whether they are addressing car use in urban or rural 
areas, where car use is much more prevalent.     

906. At-risk  groups  for  transport  poverty  include  households  with  low  incomes,  the 
unemployed,  ethnic  minority  members,  or  households  that  have  children,  or 
members  with  reduced  mobility  (including  persons  with  disabilities,  elderly 
persons).  Rural  and  peri-urban  communities  are  more  at  risk  because  they  lack 
access to alternatives to car-use. 

907. Transport poverty increases social exclusion as citizens might not have the means 
to get to work, services, social networks, and to  reach essential facilities they are 
entitled  to.  Lack  of  mobility  can  lead  to  social  disadvantage  and  exclusion.  In 
general, groups more at risk of social exclusion are especially subject to transport 
disadvantage.      

908. According  to  the  European  Social  Policy  Network  (ESPN)  report  on  “Access  to 
essential services for people on low incomes in Europe”543, the lack of availability 
and  affordability  are  the  two  main  barriers  that  affect  access  of  people  on  low 
incomes  to  adequate public transport services in  the EU.  In those Member States 
where targeted measures are in place for low-income people, those include reduced 
tariffs, subsidies as well as social protection measures. The latter are often linked 
to minimum income schemes, also for eligibility. In addition, improving the quality 
of  the  infrastructures  (e.g.  improved  physical  accessibility)  is  one  of  the  ways  to 
improve access to essential transport services. 

909. Unless  done  with  due  consideration  to  the  people  in  vulnerable  situations  in  our 
societies,  including  persons  with  disabilities  and  reduced  mobility,  internalising 
external  costs  and  more  sustainable  transport  could,  because  of  higher  transport 
costs, raise concerns over the transport affordability and risk of connectivity’s loss 
in remote areas or for people on low incomes, especially where provision of public 
transport is poor.  

910. Price signals are important to incentivise greener options and choices. However, if 
transport is to remain affordable, this cannot only be about making polluting modes 
of transport more expensive by internalising external costs, but also about reducing 
the  costs  generally  on  more  sustainable  alternatives.  Specific  compensation 
schemes  and  the  effective  use  of  taxation  and  subsidy  will  be  key  to  ensure  a 
socially and geographically fair transition.  

911. The importance of keeping transport affordable in a context of transition towards 
making  it  sustainable  is  illustrated  by  the  respondents  to  the  Eurobarometer  on 
Mobility  and  Transport544  who  state  that  their  switch  to  more  environmentally 
friendly modes of transport would be subject to the condition of it not being more 
expensive. 

543 ESPN(2020), Access to essential services for people on low incomes in Europe. An analysis of policies in 35 countries, Brussels: 
European Commission.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
544 Special Eurobarometer 495 
https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/Survey/getSurveyDetail/instruments/SPECIAL/surveyKy/2226  

207 

 
                                                      
Figure 41: Conditions to switch to more environmentally friendly modes of transport  

912. Availability of transport is another key issue. The Eurobarometer on Mobility and 
Transport545  shows  that  the  less  urbanised  the  respondent’s  environment  is,  the 
more likely they are to say there is no alternative to taking the car: 46% who live in 
rural villages say this, compared to 25% living in large towns. A study focusing on 
smart  transport  services  in  rural  areas546,  concluded  the  predominant  absence  of 
specific  policies  for  rural  transport  with  very  few  obligations  to  provide  rural 
mobility services. Organisational arrangements for rural shared mobility need to be 
strengthened.     

913. Public services obligations (PSOs) play an essential role in ensuring connectivity, a 
high  level  of  quality  of  service  and  in  keeping  transport  affordable.  Transport 
services  provided  under  PSOs  are  socially,  economically  and  politically  very 
significant:  most  urban  bus,  metro  and  tram  services;  2/3  of  all  passenger  rail 
transport services;  180 air routes connecting peripheral  and development  regions; 
about 1% of EU GDP and of total employment. PSOs provides connectivity that is 
vital for EU remote regions: a 10% increase in connectivity stimulates GDP by an 
additional 0.5%547.  

914. While the principle and usefulness of PSOs as a tool to ensure affordable services 
and  availability  is  generally  acknowledged  by  all  stakeholders  across  transport 
modes, the scope and specification of PSOs can be contentious and have a negative 
impact on the functioning of the internal market.  

915. The 

tendering  process 

is  perceived  burdensome  and 

inflexible.  Besides, 
stakeholders  highlight  a  risk  of  non-genuine  PSOs  imposed  by  Member  States. 
When the scope of the PSO goes beyond a real public need and/or covers services 
that can provided commercially, the compensation and/or exclusive rights granted 
to  a  specific  operator  for  the  provision  of  the  public  service  can  prevent  market 

545 Ibid. 
546 https://ruralsharedmobility.eu      
547 SWD(2019) 295 final 

208 

 
 
                                                      
entry and distort competition. This issue was highlighted in the 2019 evaluation of 
Regulation n°1008/2008 on air services: unnecessary PSOs on routes that could be 
commercially viable may have the effect of driving away competitors, effectively 
reducing the connectivity of remote regions.  

916. This is all the more problematic as a badly designed PSO may be subject to ex-post 
complaints  (based  on  the  infringement  of  sectorial  and/or  State  aid  rules)  and 
possible annulments following intervention by the Commission or national courts. 
Such a scenario may  result in  a disruption of the public transport service.  It may 
also have severe financial impact on the operator in charge of the public service: in 
application  of  State  aid  rules,  a  Commission  Decision  concluding  that  the  PSO 
remit is incorrectly specified may result in the recovery of the entire compensation 
received by the operator. 

917. The    discretionary  power  enjoyed  by  Member  States  is  limited  by  the  sectorial 
rules  developed  at  EU  level  as  well  as  State  aid  rules  applicable  to  services  of 
general economic interest (SGEIs)548.  

918. In accordance  with State rules applicable to  SGEIs, sectorial  provisions on PSOs 
and their specifications are currently laid down in Regulation (EC) n°1370/2007 on 
public  passenger  transport  services  by  rail  and  by  road,  Regulation  (EEC) 
n°3577/92  on  maritime  cabotage  and  Regulation  (EC)  n°  1008/2008  on  air 
services. Although the concept of PSOs is in essence the same for all modes, there 
are  some  differences  between  these  provisions,  for  example,  Regulation  (EC) 
n°1370/2007  specifically  authorises  the  grouping  of  cost  covering  and  non-
covering  services  in  the  same  public  service  contract,  which  is  not  specifically 
allowed  under  the  other  regulations.  This  feature  is  basically  motivated  by  the 
network character of land transport services compared to point-to point services in 
air and maritime transport. Regulation (EC) n°1008/2008 imposes more constraints 
on Member States when they specify PSOs.  

919. The  increasing  number  of  complaints  regarding  a  possible  manifest  error  in  the 
definition of PSOs creates a threat to the legal certainty of the award procedures of 
public  service  contracts.  This  serious  challenge  calls  for  an  increased  effort  by 
most  public  authorities  to  better  design  their  economic  intervention.  That  being 
said,  this  should  ultimately  help  channel  public  financing  to  where  it  is  more 
urgently needed (social aid, financing of infrastructure, etc…)   

920.  As  regards  passenger  rights,  PSO  could  provide  for  a  certain  minimum  standard 
for services that do not fall under mandatory rules on passenger rights. Currently, 
far  more  than  half  of  the  rail  services  are  tendered  under  the  PSOs  rules,  while 
mandatory rules on passenger rights apply only for parts of the services concerned 
(which is mostly due to exemptions applied by Member States in accordance with 
Regulation (EC) No1371/2007). 

921. Furthermore,  even  under  the  more  specific  PSO  provisions  of  Regulation  (EC) 
n°1008/2008, stakeholders have identified divergences in implementation of these 
provisions  between  Member  States.  They  also  highlight  the  complexity  and 

548

 T-289/03 BUPA and others v Commission, EU:T:2008:29, para 172.  Communication from the Commission on the application 
of the European Union State aid rules to compensation granted for the provision of services of general economic interest, OJ  C 8, 
11.01.2012, p. 4, para. 46. See also Commission Decision C(2012) 2257 final of 25 April 2012 on Germany- State aid granted by 
Germany  to  the  Zweckverband  and  Tierkörperbeseitigung  in  Rhineland-  Palatinate,  Saarland,  Rheingau-Taunus-Kreis  and 
Landkreis Limburg- Weilburg, (NN23/2010 and N15/2004), OJ L 236, 01.09.2012, p. 1, para 176. An appeal by that decision was 
rejected by the General Court in Case T-309/12 Zweckverband and Tierkörperbeseitigung v Commission, EU:IT:T:2014:676. 

209 

 
                                                      
burdensome nature of the procedure for the attribution of PSO (e.g. lack of time to 
prepare tenders, the complexity of the contracts). 

922. Finally,  not  all  rules  regarding  PSOs  refer  specifically  to  environmental 
requirements.  Such  references  are  lacking  in  Regulation  (EC)  1008/2008  and 
Regulation  (EEC)  3577/92.  Regulation  (EC)  1370/2007 
leaves  competent 
authorities the possibility to establish social and qualitative criteria for PSO, which 
may also include criteria related to environmental protection (see 17th recital). 

923. Accessibility  to  transport  also  remains  a  challenge.  Persons  with  disabilities  and 
reduced mobility face challenges to travel and limited access to transport. One in 
six people in  the EU have a disability that  ranges from mild  to  severe.  Over one 
third  of  people  aged  over  75  have  disabilities  that  restrict  their  ability  to  move. 
These numbers are set to rise as the EU population grows progressively older. By 
2070, 30.3% of the population is projected to be aged 65 years or older (compared 
to 20.3% in 2019) and 13.2% is projected to be aged 80 years or older (compared 
to 5.8% in 2019) 549.  

924. Our  ageing  society  requires  more  emphasis  on  the  provision  of  safe,  secure, 
reliable  and accessible transport services  featuring  appropriate solutions  for users 
with  disabilities and reduced mobility.  In addition, specialised transport solutions 
are  also  required.  For  instance,  one  can  expect  higher  demand  for  door-to-door 
mobility  and  driver  assistance  solutions.  Public  transport  providers  will  have  to 
adapt to an increasing amount of passengers with disabilities and reduced mobility, 
requiring investments in barrier-free infrastructure and rolling stock.  

925. Digitalisation  of  the  transport  sector,  while  bringing  many  opportunities,  also 
comes with challenges and can limit accessibility to transport for people with few 
digital  skills,  poor  IT  literacy  or  with  limited  access  to  internet.  In  2019,  the 
percentage  of people who have at  least  basic digital skills reached 58% (up from 
55% in 2015). A large part of the EU population, however, still lacks basic digital 
skills550. 

926. The  EU  passenger  rights  legislation  (adopted  mostly  between  2004  and  2011) 
ensures  that  persons  with  disability  and  reduced  mobility  are  not  discriminated 
when  they  intend  to  use  collective  transport  (air,  rail,  bus  and  coach  and 
waterborne  transport)  and  if  necessary  they  receive  special  assistance  free  of 
charge to  use those transport modes. Most  recently, the Commission  proposed to 
amend  the  regulation  on  rail  passenger  rights  in  2017  to  extend  the  rights  of 
passengers with disabilities and reduced mobility to services which are not covered 
under the current rules. The reform had been provisionally agreed by the Council 
presidency  and  the  European  Parliament  in  October  2020551.  The  Commission 
started  to  evaluate  the  legislation  related  to  the  three  other  modes  of  transport  to 
assess  whether  amendment  of  those  regulations  are  necessary.  Persons  with 
disabilities and reduced mobility demand enjoying their rights on equal basis with 
others in line with the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. 

927. The  Commission  adopted  Technical  Specifications  for  the  accessibility  of  the 
railway system for persons with reduced mobility to ensure the accessibility of rail 
infrastructure and rolling stock. This  Regulation  was amended in  2019, to ensure 

549 Report on the impact of demographic change, COM/2020/241 final, https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/new-
push-european-democracy/impact-demographic-change-europe_en. 
550 Digital Economy and Society Index Report 2020 - Human Capital, https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/human-capital.  
551https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/10/21/improved-rail-passenger-rights-council-approves-the-
informal-deal/ 

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inventories of assets, including a website providing practical information about the 
accessibility of railway stations. 

928. The Trans-European Transport (TEN-T) Guidelines also contain provisions on the 
need to make accessible the TEN-T Network for users with disabilities and reduced 
mobility. One aim of the upcoming revision of the TEN-T Guidelines is to ensure 
that accessibility requirements are better reflected in the future development of the 
network.  

929. Persons  with  disabilities,  especially  in  aviation  ask  for  revision  of  safety  rules  to 
ensure that these would not conflict their rights to travel on equal basis with others. 
930. Finally, the European Accessibility Act552 contains some accessibility requirements 
that  can  be  used  to  render  operational  the  general  accessibility  provisions, 
providing  presumption  of  compliance.  Additional  accessibility  requirements  are 
needed to cover transport elements not covered by the European Accessibility Act.  

4.3.4.4  Protection of European passengers and consumers 

931. The EU framework for passengers’ rights provides a minimum level of protection 
for people using collective transport services. They protect passengers in cases of 
disruptions  during  all  phases  of  the  journey,  promoting  quality  of  services  in  all 
public transport modes (air, rail, waterborne, bus and coach). The framework has 
developed gradually from a mode-specific approach defining a comprehensive set 
of  rules  into  a  wider  concept  bringing  common  basic  rights  to  the  passengers  to 
protect  them  against  disruptions  and  poor  transport  service  quality.  It  also 
minimises travel disruptions, improves passenger information and ensures service 
quality together with a level playing field for transport operators within and across 
modes, creating a European standard for passenger protection. Three key principles 
encompass  the  current  rules  on  passenger  rights:  the  non-discrimination  of 
passengers;  the  availability  of  accurate,  timely  and  accessible  information  to  all 
passengers;  and  an  immediate  and  proportionate  assistance  when  required.  Yet 
there  are  currently  no  specific  rules  for  multimodal  journeys,  and  some  existing 
rules may require completion or updating.  

932. Notwithstanding  the  substantial  progress  made  in  this  area  during  the  last  fifteen 
years,  some  challenges  remain.  Despite  the  efforts  of  the  Commission  to  raise 
awareness over the years in respect of passenger rights, such as through large-scale 
communication campaigns, there is a need for further improvement of passengers’ 
awareness  about  their  rights  and  how  to  claim  them,  as  passengers’  knowledge 
about  the  existence  of  EU  passenger  rights  is  still  too  low,  according  to  a 
Eurobarometer553, as highlighted by the graphic below. Diverging views remain on 
the perceived financial burden for carriers and the perceived administrative burden 
for passengers claiming their rights.  

933. Enforcement 

is 

left  mainly 

to  national  enforcement  bodies  (NEBs), 

the 
Commission  facilitating  the  cooperation  among  NEBs  from  different  countries. 
Owing partly to the significant differences across Member States, both in terms of 
the  way  NEBs  are  structured  and  organised,  as  well  as  the  enforcement  powers 
they  have,  inconsistencies  remain  when  it  comes  to  the  application  of  the 

552  Directive (EU) 2019/882 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 April 2019 on the accessibility requirements for 
products and services (Text with EEA relevance) PE/81/2018/REV/1 OJ L 151, 7.6.2019, p. 70–115 
553 Special Eurobarometer 485 – Passenger Rights. Field work February-March 2019, publ. January 2020.     
See: https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/survey/getsurveydetail/instruments/special/surveyky/2200  

211 

 
                                                      
legislation  by  operators  across  Member  States.  There  is  also  a  sustained  demand 
for legal  clarity, as national  courts keep asking the Court of Justice of the EU to 
interpret  certain  provisions  of  the  passenger  rights  regulations,  particularly  in  air 
passenger transport regarding issues related to financial compensations in the event 
of  long  delay  or  flight  cancellation.  Under  the  general  consumer  protection 
framework,  joint  actions  can  be  taken  under  the  new  Consumer  Protection 
Cooperation 
(EU)  2017/2394  as  of  January  2020). 
Representative actions554 in the collective interest of passengers are also expected 
to be possible within the next two years. 

(CPC)  Regulation 

934. Persons with disabilities and reduced mobility still consider that they do not enjoy 
equal  access  to  public  transport:  they  demand  more  accessibility  and  the 
elimination of the pre-notification requirement necessary to give assistance to them 
in case they cannot use independently public transport (or at least to shorten such 
periods  which  they  consider  extremely  long  at  the  moment).  Regarding  rail,  this 
pre-notification will be reduced now from 48 to 24 hours.555 

Figure 52: Passengers’ knowledge about the existence of EU passenger rights 

935. The  Commission  has  made  proposals  to  consolidate  air  and  rail  passenger  rights 
Regulations (namely in 2013 and 2017, respectively). The Council and the European 
Parliament  reached  a  provisional  agreement  on  the  Commission’s  proposal  for  the 
recast  of  the  rail  passenger  rights  in  October  2020.  A  study  dated  January  2020 
gives a detailed view of the level of protection of air passenger rights in the EU556. 

936. Currently  there  is  no  EU  legislation  guaranteeing  the  rights  of  passengers 
combining  different  modes  of  transport  during  their  journey.  In  this  context,  the 
Commission  published  an  external  study  on  passenger  rights  in  the  multi-modal 
context  last  year557.  Evaluation  studies  of  the  waterborne,  bus  and  coach  and  air 
PRM  regulations  are  carried  out  in  2020-2021  as  well  as  a  review  of  the  good 
practices in the field of passenger rights to get a full overview of the state of play 
across modes.  

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/10/21/improved-rail-passenger-rights-council-approves-the-

554Directive (EU) 2020/1828 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 25 November 2020 on representative actions for the 
protection of the collective interests of consumers and repealing Directive 2009/22/EC (Text with EEA relevance) 
OJ L 409, 4.12.2020, p. 1–27   
555 
informal-deal/ 
556 Study on the level of protection of air passenger rights in the EU, January 2020.  
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/passengers/news/2020-01-13-air-passenger-rights-study_en 
557  Exploratory  study  on  passenger  rights  in  multimodal  transport,  September  2019.  https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-
/publication/f176da6f-d9ca-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1 

212 

 
 
                                                      
937. The COVID-19 pandemic and the related traffic collapse have reinforced the need 
for  clarification  of  the  passenger  rights  framework.  The  Commission  adopted 
Interpretative  Guidelines  on  18  March  2020558  as  well  as  a  Recommendation  on 
vouchers (EU) 2020/648 on 13 May 2020559, which confirmed that EU passenger 
rights continue to apply during the pandemic. In this Recommendation, which was 
part  of  a  package  of  guidelines  and  recommendations  on  how  to  safely  revive 
transport  services  and  connectivity560,  the  Commission  reiterated  that  passengers 
have  the  right  to  choose  between  reimbursements  in  cash  or  to  accept  a  voucher 
offered by the carrier in the event of travel service cancellation. It also sets out key 
features to ensure that vouchers are fair for consumers if they are offered instead of 
reimbursement.  In particular, (i) vouchers should be valid for at  least  12 months; 
(ii)  if  the  voucher  is  not  redeemed  after  the  period  of  validity,  carriers  should 
automatically reimburse its amount within 14 days; (iii) vouchers could be used for 
payments related to new bookings before the voucher’s expiry date, even where the 
new  service  is  to  be  performed  by  another  carrier  who  forms  part  of  the  same 
group of companies; and (iv) vouchers should be transferable to another person at 
no  additional  cost.  To  make  the  vouchers  more  attractive  to  passengers,  carriers 
could even issue them for a higher value than the amount due to be reimbursed in 
cash. Where vouchers and transport tickets could be backed by a certain guarantee 
scheme  (which  is  already  a  solution  in  a  few  Member  States),  such  operation-
reassuring aspects would have positive implications on the actors in the transport 
sector  –  in  cases  where  extraordinary  events,  such  as  the  COVID-19  pandemic, 
would lead to significant travel disruptions.  

938. Regarding  consumer  protection,  whereas  the  EU  is  equipped  with  a  strong  and 
protective  legal  framework,  some  loopholes  have  been  identified  in  the  transport 
sector,  including  in  the  areas  of  bankruptcies,  odometer  or  mileage  fraud  and 
unclear pricing practices in aviation. 

939. Bankruptcies of transport carriers are a source of very significant damages which 
are  difficult  to  anticipate  and  which  can  leave  passengers  in  distress  and  without 
any protection. In air transport, since 2011, 87 airline bankruptcies have occurred 
in  Europe,  which  has  led  to  a  consolidation  of  the  European  airline  industry. 
Bankruptcies  of  air  carriers  result 
in  disruption  for  passengers,  workers 
(bankruptcies are estimated to have affected around 37,000 jobs) and competitors. 
To  better  predict  difficulties  and  monitor  the  financial  health  of  air  carriers,  EU 
rules  require  competent  licensing  authorities  to  monitor  compliance  of  airlines, 
notably with financial requirements. In case of financial difficulty and to avoid the 
high  levels  of  disruption  caused  by  a  sudden  revocation  of  the  operating  licence, 
airlines  may  be  granted  a  temporary  licence  for  a  maximum  duration  of  twelve 
months  if  there  are  realistic  prospects  of  financial  restructuration.  However, 
recently  temporary  licences  are  seldom  used  by  Member  States,  as  generally  not 
recognised to be the most effective solution to rescue airlines from and insolvency. 
561 In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, Regulation 2020/696 has recognised 
this  issue  and  temporarily  allowed  the  possibility,  under  certain  conditions,  for  a 

558 Commission Notice - Interpretative Guidelines on EU passenger rights regulations in the context of the developing situation with 
Covid-19, OJ C 89I, 18.3.2020, p. 1–8. See https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52020XC0318(04)  
559 Commission Recommendation (EU) 2020/648 of 13 May 2020 on vouchers offered to passengers and travellers as an alternative 
to  reimbursement  for  cancelled  package  travel  and  transport  services  in  the  context  of  the  COVID-19  pandemic,  OJ  L  151, 
14.5.2020, p. 10-16. See https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reco/2020/648/oj 
560https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/health/coronavirus-response/travel-and-transportation-during-coronavirus-
pandemic_en 
561 Evaluation of Regulation 1008/2008, SWD(2019) 295 final. 

213 

 
                                                      
Member State to maintain the operating license (as opposed to issuing a temporary 
license). 562     

940. There  is  currently  no  specific  protection  of  passengers  for  the  purchase  of  stand-
alone tickets in the event of insolvency / bankruptcy of the carriers under any EU 
passenger  rights’  regulations.  By  contrast,  travellers  buying  a  package  travel, 
combining transport and hotel for instance, are protected to a certain degree, under 
the Package Travel Directive (PTD). 

941. As far as stand-alone tickets are concerned (which are the major part of tickets by 
far),  across  Europe,  there  only  exist  partial  solutions  for  the  protection  of 
passengers in the case of the carrier’s insolvency.  

942.  In  2013,  the  Commission  adopted,  together  with  the  proposal  for  amending 
Regulation  261/2004  on  air  passenger  rights,  a  Communication  on  passenger 
protection  in  the  event  of  airline  insolvency.  After  the  recent  insolvencies  the 
Commission services assessed the situation again: the study on air passenger rights, 
published  January  2020,  estimated  that  in  total,  between  2011  and  2019,  5.6 
million passengers were impacted by airline insolvencies in some way. During the 
2011-19  period  0.04%  of  total  EU  passengers  were  somehow  affected  by  airline 
bankruptcies. In 2019 this percentage peaked to 0.14% due to the bankruptcies of 
Thomas Cook, Germania, Aigle Azur and WOW air563.  

943. 2020, marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, is expected to be particularly difficult 
on that front. Some regional and charter airlines already filed for administration or 
liquidation earlier this  year, especially within the regional airlines segment, while 
network carriers may do better thanks to national governments’ support. The other 
modes face similar challenges. 

944. In  2019,  the  European  Parliament  called  in  a  Resolution  on  the  Commission  to 
carry  out  a  stocktaking  of  the  existing  EU  legislation  in  relation  to  airline 
bankruptcy, consumer protection, travel packages, passenger rights in light of the 
recent collapse of the Thomas Cook Group in order to evaluate the possible need 
for legislative clarification and improvement and other measures required to avoid 
similar situations in the future. The analysis was performed by January 2020 in air 
transport  and  further  thinking  is  in  progress,  in  the  context  of  COVID-19 
pandemic. In particular, insolvencies are not covered and should be addressed from 
the  perspective  of  the  passengers  (reimbursement  of  the  price  of  the  ticket  or 
repatriation) for all modes of transport.  

945. The  Commission  has  been  following  up  to  its  Communication  on  passenger 
protection in  the  event  of airline insolvency, notably by  encouraging the  national 
authorities competent for air services and those competent for passengers rights to 
coordinate their actions to ensure appropriate monitoring of the financial position 
of air carriers and where necessary adopt a coordinated approach to the suspension 
of  their  operations  to  minimise  the  impact  on  passengers.  The  Commission  also 
engaged  with  EU  air  transport  associations  to  formalise  the  existing  voluntary 
agreements on the provision of rescue fares and their effective promotion. 

946. In  its  recent  Recommendation  on  vouchers,  the  Commission  has  proposed  that 
Member States find solutions for the insolvency protection of vouchers for travel 
packages  as  well  as  stand-alone  transport  tickets.  Some  Member  States  have 

562 Summary report on Regulation (EU) 2020/696 adopted by the Commission on 13/11/2020, COM(2020) 714 final. 
563 Study on the level of protection of air passenger rights in the EU, January 2020. 
See: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/passengers/news/2020-01-13-air-passenger-rights-study_en 

214 

 
                                                      
decided to  extend their insolvency protection schemes for travel packages also to 
vouchers issued in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

947. Some  stakeholders  expressed  their  views  regarding  the  insolvency  protection  for 
transport tickets and vouchers in the context of COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, 
consumer  and  passenger  associations  advocate  for  traveller  guarantee  funds  or 
other  means  to  better  protect  passengers’  financial  interests  against  carriers’ 
bankruptcies (e.g. limitation of pre-payments, “pay as you check in”). In recital 13 
of  the  Commission  Recommendation  (EU)  2020/648  on  vouchers,  it  was  also 
highlighted that the burden sharing between the different actors in the travel supply 
chain  is  unfair  and  financially  not  sustainable.  For  example,  if  a  traveller,  who 
booked a package with a flight component, cancels the package travel contract in 
accordance  with  the  Package  Travel  Directive,  the  organiser  has  to  refund  the 
traveller  the  full  price,  irrespective  of  whether  or  not  he  still  holds  the  money  or 
will be able to recover it from the airline, if the flight was operated.     

948. Mileage  or  odometer  fraud  is  also  a  problem  that  affects  consumers  who  buy 
second-hand vehicles. The distance that a vehicle has travelled is one of the major 
factors that influence the value and the price of a vehicle. Odometer fraud involves 
selling  a  vehicle  for  a  higher  price  than  its  real  value  after  winding  back  the 
odometer. Beside the financial harm caused directly, odometer fraud also may also 
entail a road safety aspect. A vehicle with less mileage may be perceived to be in a 
better condition than it actually is, so the owner might take the vehicle for a check 
later  or  important  maintenance  may  be  delayed,  leading  to  higher  risk  in  road 
safety.  According  to  a  European  Parliament  study,  the  malpractice  is  particularly 
relevant  in  cross-border  trade  of  used  vehicles.  Cars  with  rolled-back  odometers 
were  estimated  to  account  for  between  30%  and  50%  of  the  total  number  of 
vehicles  traded  across  borders.  The  resulting  financial  losses  are  estimated  to  be 
very high564.  

949. The  EU-wide  rules  on  roadworthiness  that  came  into  force  in  2018  support  the 
fight  against  odometer  fraud.  During  roadworthiness  tests,  authorities  have  to 
check  the  odometer  reading,  register  the  data  and  make  it  available  for  the 
inspector at the next test. This facilitates the detection of fraud.  

950. Data exchange reduces the opportunity for odometer fraud in cross-border, second-
hand car sales. There could indeed be significant benefits in mandating the cross-
border  exchange of odometer data between national  authorities at  EU level.  As a 
first step, a pilot programme and exchanges of test data have started in 2019 with a 
number of volunteering Member States that are keen to progress in this field. The 
pilot  will  run  until  the  end  of  2020.  The  technical  specifications  are  ready  and 
Member States were invited to start their development to connect.  

951. Poor quality of services also affects attractiveness of certain transport modes for 
users.  Although  improvement  in  the  quality  of  the  infrastructure  networks  in  the 
last  decades  is  not  disputable,  the  management  of  disruptions  overall  looks  sub-
optimal.  There  remains  a  growing  concern  with  the  predictability  of  transport 
services: e.g. lack of accurate information, traffic jams, delays and waiting times, 
last minute cancellation of transport service, lack of definition of minimum service 
level. 

564 European Parliamentary Research Service (2018): Odometer manipulation in motor vehicles in the EU (study), European Added 
Value Assessment accompanying the EP’s legislative initiative report  
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2018/615637/EPRS_STU(2018)615637_EN.pdf 

215 

 
                                                      
952. While  there  have  been  some  EU  initiatives,  including  legal  rules,  to  enable  real-
time  travel  and  traffic  information  services,  there  is  scope  for  improvement  as 
regards  the  amount,  access  and  accuracy  of  information  across  the  whole  EU 
transport  network.  Enabling  tools  and  technologies  (intelligent  transport  systems, 
artificial  intelligence,  sensors,  high  power  computing,  etc.)  are  needed  to 
improving the quality of information services.  

953. Discontinuity  in  service  may  notably  result  from  weather  or  major  public-health 
related  issues  or  from  human-made  disruptions.  Disruptions  to  transport  services 
may  also  be  a  result  of  industrial  actions.  Workers  and  employers,  or  their 
respective  organisations,  have,  in  accordance  with  Union  law  and  national  laws 
and  practices,  the  right  to  negotiate  and  conclude  collective  agreements  at  the 
appropriate levels and, in cases of conflicts of interest, to take collective action to 
defend  their  interests,  including  strike  action.  According  to  Eurofound565,  the 
transport  sector  is  one  of  the  sectors  most  affected  by  disputes  of  national 
significance, in particular the railway and air transport sectors.  

954. Whereas  the  right  to  strike  is  a  fundamental  right  of  workers  and  must  be 
protected,  industrial  actions  may  have  a  significant  impact  of  the  provision  of 
transport services. For example, in 2014, strikes in aviation contributed to 13.4% of 
total  en-route  delays  that  year.  In  addition,  the  additional  distance  flown  in  the 
European airspace to circumvent the areas affected by strikes in the period 2014-
2015 amounted to 2.2 million kilometres, contributing to degraded environmental 
performance,  and  raising  the  costs  of  airlines  with  increased  fuel  consumption. 
Industrial  actions  also  result  in  flight  cancellations  for  passengers,  which  in  turn 
decreases  the  revenue  of  airlines.  Although  the  occurrence  of  strikes  has 
significantly  decreased  in  the  past  5  years,  it  is  still  necessary  to  mitigate  their 
detrimental impact on passengers and the economy. 

955. In  2016,  the  Commission  issued  a  study566  to  identify  options  for  improving  Air 
Traffic  Management  service  continuity  in  the  event  of  strikes.  Building  on  the 
results,  the  Commission  published  a  Staff  Working  Document567  with  a  set  of 
recommended  mitigation  measures.  These  reflect  best  practices  used  in  some 
Member  States.  The  Commission  has  also  mandated  the  Network  Manager  to 
mitigate  the  impact  of  strikes  on  flight  delays  network  wide.  The  Network 
Manager  fulfils  this  mission  by  maintaining  a  register  of  best  practices  collected 
from  the  air  navigation  service  providers,  and  with  a  reinforced  coordination  of 
network operations during the strikes. 

4.3.5  Safety and security 

956. Safety  and  security  are  at  the  heart  of  the  transport  system  and  are  the  pre-
condition  to  any  sustainable  transport  system.  Fatalities  as  well  as  life-changing 
injuries, whether due to safety or security reasons cause grief and suffering. They 
are burdensome for the society and affect the public’s trust in transport. They may 
also have significant environmental impacts. Further increasing the level of safety 
with  a  holistic  “Safe  System”  approach568  and  strengthening  the  resilience  of 

565 Eurofound (2019), Annual review of working life 2018, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. 
566https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/2017-03-06-study-on-options-to-improve-atm-service-continuity-in-the-event-
of-strikes.pdf 
567https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/swd20170207-practices-favouring-air-traffic-management-service-
continuity.pdf 
568  The  “Safe  System”  approach  to  road  safety,  derived  from  European  best  practices  and  recommended  globally  by  the  World 
Health Organisation, accepts that collisions will continue to occur to some extent, but aims for a more forgiving system that protects 

216 

 
                                                      
 
transport in Europe must therefore remain the first priority both for regulators and 
for the industry569.  

957. European mobility enjoys today an unprecedented high level of safety and security. 
Yet, it must further improve to secure the confidence of passengers in all modes of 
transport and to successfully address increasingly complex challenges. 

958. Roads in Europe are the safest in the world. The EU in 2019 had about 51 deaths 
annually  per  million  inhabitants,  against  182  deaths  per  million  globally,  110 
deaths  per million in  the USA and 93 deaths  per million  in geographical  Europe. 
But every fatality is one too many on the way to “Vision Zero”, the EU’s goal to 
eliminate all fatalities and serious injuries from road transport by 2050. 

959. EU-wide progress over the past two decades has been remarkable: the number of 
people killed in road crashes fell by 43% between 2000 and 2010 and by another 
23% between 2010 and 2019. This shows that progress has been made and can still 
be  made.  Yet,  even  with  this  progress,  in  2019,  an  estimated  22,700  road  traffic 
fatalities were recorded in the 27 EU Member States and about five times as many 
serious  injuries,  which  often  have  life-changing  consequences.  And  while  the 
underlying trend remains downward, progress has slowed sharply in most countries 
since 2013, some countries are seeing fatalities even increasing again, and the EU 
target of halving the number of road deaths by 2020 (relative to the 2010 baseline) 
will not be met570.  

Figure 42: Road fatalities in the EU and current target 

all users from death and serious injury. Better vehicle construction, improved infrastructure, lower speeds etc. should work together 
to reduce the impact of crashes and form layers of protection ensuring that, if one element fails, another will compensate. 
569 The need to prioritise safety is notably highlighted by aviation professionals and workers’ associations in the context of their post 
COVID-19 statement  
https://www.eurocockpit.be/news/covid-19-aviation-time-rethink,  https://www.etf-europe.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/COVID-
19-statement-ETF-230920.pdf  
570  Press  release:  “Road  safety:  Europe’s  roads  are  getting  safer  but  progress  remains 
too  slow”  (11/06/2020) 
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/media/news/2020-06-11-road-safety-statistics-2019_en.       2020  still  may  prove  to  be  an  outlier  with 
early indications that the number of road fatalities is likely to drop significantly in view of the measures taken to tackle coronavirus, 
but not by enough to meet the target. 

217 

 
 
                                                                                                                                                            
960. The  EU  average  of  51  road  deaths  per  million  inhabitants  also  masks  significant 
differences  between  Member  States.  While  the  performance  gap  between  the 
Member  States  has  narrowed  significantly  since  the  year  2000,  there  are  still 
proportionally four times more road deaths in the worst performing country than in 
the best one.  

Figure 43: Trend in road deaths per million inhabitants 2010-2019 

More than half (53%) of all road fatalities in the EU occur on rural roads and 8% 
on  motorways.  However,  38%  of  the  fatalities  occur  in  urban  areas  where 
vulnerable road users’ account for 70% of road deaths, with pedestrians being the 
most affected group.  While road deaths fell by more than 20% between 2010 and 
2018571, the number of cyclists killed actually increased by 6% in urban areas. 

Figure 55: Percentage of road fatalities in the EU by transport mode, 2018  

571  While  the  total  number  of  road  fatalities  is  available  for  2019,  disaggregated  data  by  type  of  road  and  transport  mode  are 
currently available up to 2018 only. 

218 

 
 
 
                                                      
Source: CARE database 

961. Compared to road, rail is a very safe mode of transport, although there are still too 
many  fatalities  involving  railways.  Altogether  1  721  significant  accidents,  885 
fatalities and 760 serious injuries were recorded in the EU-28 countries in 2018. A 
steady decrease in significant accidents and resulting casualties has been recorded 
in the period 2010-2018, for which harmonised data are available across the Union.  

Figure 56: Number of significant accidents, fatalities, and serious injuries in rail572 

962. Regarding aviation, which is the safest mode of transport, whereas 2018 (14 fatal 
accidents  with  534  fatalities  worldwide)  was  globally  worse  than  2017  (9  fatal 
accidents  with  67  fatalities  worldwide),  2019  showed  268  fatalities  in  13  fatal 
accidents573.  No  fatal  accidents  involving  EU  Member  States  airlines  occurred 
since 2016574. 

572 Source: ERA, 2020, Report on Railway Safety and Interoperability in the EU 2020 
https://www.era.europa.eu/sites/default/files/library/docs/safety_interoperability_progress_reports/report_on_railway_safety_and_in
teroperability_in_the_eu_2020_en.pdf  
573 Global figures are for fatalities involving large aeroplane passenger and cargo operations worldwide.  
Source: EASA https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/easa_asr_2020.pdf 
574Accidents involving commercial air transport airline and air-taxi aeroplanes.  
Source: EASA https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/easa_asr_2020.pdf 

219 

 
 
                                                      
Figure 56: Fatal accidents involving large aeroplane passenger and cargo operations 

Source: EASA Annual Safety Review 2020 

963. In maritime transport, during the 2011-2018 period, a total of 696 lives were lost. 
The decrease observed since 2015 was reversed in 2018. Crew have been the most 
impacted  category  of  victims  over  this  period  with  566  fatalities.  The  number  of 
fatalities recorded in 2018 is 53. As to occurrences, 3,174 were reported in 2018, 
and the average per  year over the past five  years is of 3,239 marine casualties or 
incidents.575 

4.3.5.1  Ever evolving challenges 

964. Few  could  have  predicted  the  enormous  health  safety  challenge  that  the 
coronavirus pandemic has posed to the transport sector. New health protocols and 
guidelines on the operation of transport services576 had to be issued, operations and 
equipment had to be drastically changed and revamped. Yet, most collective modes 
still  struggle  to  regain  the  trust  of  passengers,  be  that  in  public  transport,  high-
speed rail, coaches or flying. 

965. Unfortunately  this  latest  development  is  just  one  of  the  constantly  evolving 
challenges  that  the  transport  sector  has  to  face,  and  demonstrates  the  need  for  a 
flexible and varied framework that can be easily adapted and offers a diverse range 
of solutions so as to cope with the different kinds of challenges that may arise. For 
example,  the  transport  sector  remains  an  attractive  target  for  terrorists  and 
criminals.  The  main  challenge  is  to  reconcile  the  security  of  persons  and  goods 
with  the  openness  and  efficiency  of  the  transport  system.  Security  needs  to  be 
taken  into  account  at  the  design  stage  of  the  process  for  vehicles  and 
infrastructures, in order to make them resilient to ever evolving threats. However, 
in many cases, transport is lacking rapid and efficient certification processes.  

575 Source: EMSA, http://www.emsa.europa.eu/accident-investigation-publications/annual-overview.html  
576C/2020/3139,  Communication  from  the  Commission  Guidelines  on  the  progressive  restoration  of  transport  services  and 
connectivity – COVID-19 2020/C 169/02, OJ C 169, 15.5.2020, p. 17–29. Additional guidelines:  
EASA  
https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/EASA-ECDC_COVID-
19_Operational%20guidelines%20for%20management%20of%20passengers_v2.pdf  
ERA https://www.era.europa.eu/sites/default/files/events-news/docs/covid-19_rail_protocol_en.pdf  
EMSA https://emsa.europa.eu/emsa-documents/latest/download/6376/3978/23.html  

220 

 
 
                                                      
966. The introduction of new technologies (e.g. drones, e-scooters, Hyperloop) can also 
affect  the  safety  and  security  of  transport  and  its  users.  These  include  new 
technologies  that  are  key  to  enable  a  more  sustainable  transport  system  (e.g. 
alternative  fuels,  electric  vehicles)  and  that  may  involve  increased  risk  for  safety 
and  for  security.  These  should  be  addressed  in  order  to  make  the  twin  transition 
towards sustainability and digitalisation successful. 

967. Drones  create  new  services,  can  contribute  to  decarbonisation  and  bring  value  to 
many  businesses,  including  airports  operations,  but  put  in  the  wrong  hands,  they 
can  pose  serious  safety  and  security  concerns  –  as  recent  high  profile  incidents 
demonstrated. In 2018, more than 10 million mass market drones and 1.3 million 
specialised  drones  were  sold  globally.  In  2022  these  figures  are  expected  to  be 
respectively be 35 million and 9.2 million. Since September 2018, the EU has the 
responsibility for ensuring that these drones operations are safe, secure, green and 
respectful of people privacy. EU-wide rules adopted in 2019 will make it easier for 
local authorities to restrict operations in sensitive areas, next to airports or prisons 
for instance. They will also greatly facilitate the identification and localisation of a 
drone  and  its  pilot,  with  important  provisions  such  as  mandatory  registration, 
marking and remote identification. And they will ensure that drones operations are 
as safe as those in manned aviation.  

968. More  legislative  work  is  required  as  certification  requirements  for  the  drone,  the 
operator and the remote pilot need to be defined. There is also a need to ensure that 
large scale drone operations in the very low level airspace remain safe and secure. 
Further  initiatives  in  the  field  of  Drone  Traffic  Management,  the  so-called  ‘U-
space’ should enable drones to be adequately separated from each other and protect 
all  other  airspace  users,  as  well  as  people,  animals  and  buildings  on  the  ground 
from  hazardous  proximity.  Further  work  is  also  needed  to  ensure  that  European 
airports  are  well  prepared  to  deal  with  unauthorised  drones’  incursions,  so  that 
closure and diversions remain a last-resort measure only. This also raises the issue 
of counter-drones technologies, i.e. how to  “take-down” a hostile drone.  But  it is 
imperative that these technologies do not threaten other legitimate airspace users, 
such as airliners.  

969. On  urban  roads,  sharing  schemes  of  bicycles  and  especially  of  e-scooters,  have 
mushroomed rapidly.  In some cities, up to 8 different operators have deployed e-
scooters.  Although  the  sector  was  severely  hit  by  the  COVID-19  pandemic,  e-
scooters remain easily accessible and popular and have the potential to reduce car 
trips,  and  thereby  congestion  and  emissions.  They  might  usefully  complement 
public transport, potentially resulting in wider use and acceptance of the latter. At 
this point, however, reliable and comparable statistics are missing. 

970. At  the  same  time,  new  personal  mobility  devices  also  raise  a  number  of  serious 
concerns – some related to the safety of the devices themselves, some to their safe 
use  in  traffic,  some  to  the  operation  of  the  sharing  schemes  (use  of  public  space 
and sustainability). Comparable data across Member States is still missing, but first 
data  released  by  some  Member  States577  and  anecdotal  evidence  from  medical 
sources points to a lot of injuries, including fatal ones.  

577 Germany reported statistics for the first time covering the first quarter of 2020, during which 251 e-scooter users were injured 
and one died (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/07/PE20_N035_46241.html). France also reported statistics for the first time 
in  2020,  indicating  that  10  people  were  killed  in  2019  using  “Engins  de  Déplacement  Personnel  (EDP)  motorisés” 
(https://www.onisr.securite-routiere.gouv.fr/sites/default/files/2020-
05/2020%2005%2030%20Présentation%20Bilan%20Définitif%20ONISR%202019%20vMS.pdf). 

221 

 
                                                      
971. Currently,  only  few  Member  States  have  regulations  in  place.  Regulatory 
divergence makes it difficult for visitors to follow local rules correctly (e-scooters 
in  particular  are  popular  with  tourists),  and  negatively  affects  sharing  scheme 
operators that wish to operate in more than one country. 

972. A  solid  statistical  basis  –  for  both  safety/crash  data  and  mobility  patterns  (modal 
share,  substitution  of  rides  previously  made  on  other  modes,  etc.)  –  is  needed. 
Crash  injury  data  would  mostly  be  needed  from  hospitals.  In  many  countries, 
cooperation between the police and the medical sector on data gathering is not yet 
working very well. Mobility pattern data needs to be gathered more systematically 
from operators of sharing schemes and verified as far as possible. 

973. For the devices themselves, there are a number of EU tools to influence safety. An 
EU framework for certification and market surveillance could be considered, be it 
in the framework of type approval, the machinery directive or a standard in order 
to  ensure  that  the  devices  themselves  fulfil  certain  safety  requirements.  A  study 
into these issues is ongoing, with results expected in early 2021. 

974. Regarding their use, the  EU has no competence to set  traffic  rules. However, the 
Commission  could  issue  guidance  to  Member  States  (on  vehicle  classification, 
which  infrastructure  they  are  entitled  to  use  (i.e.  sharing  walking/cycling 
infrastructure),  minimum  age,  helmet,  insurance)  and  urge  Member  States  to 
coordinate their policies. 

975. Finally,  shared  new  mobility  services  in  general  should  in  any  case  be  part  of  a 
local  transport  plan.  Since  2013,  the  Commission  provides  a  concept  on 
Sustainable  Urban  Mobility  Planning  (SUMP),  with  related  European  guidelines. 
These  guidelines,  intended  for  local  authorities,  have  recently  been  revised  and 
include,  among  others,  a  dedicated  guide  on  Integration  of  Shared  Mobility 
Approaches  in  Sustainable  Urban  Mobility  Planning578.  Exchange  of  experience 
and  good  practices  between  cities  could  be  fostered,  involving  relevant  city 
networks.  These  and  related  safety  and  sustainability  issues  are  also  being 
considered in the context of the revision of the Urban Mobility Package.  

976. Third area of evolving challenges is exponential growth of traffic and congestion 
as it becomes increasingly complex in certain modes of transport to maintain high 
levels  of  safety  and  security  in  a  context  of  congested  and  gridlocked  traffic.  In 
addition, rapid growth brings risk of cutting corners on security/safety. 

977. With traffic growth, the challenge is to always enhance the level of safety in order 
to  sustain the growth  with  no additional incident or accident. The safety  factor is 
then key for infrastructure development and planning for the future. 

978. In terms of air navigation, a system to enable the de-confliction of trajectories is a 
vital tool to mitigate the risk of a collision between aircraft, notably in situations of 
high  air  traffic  controllers’  workload.  When  fed  by  numerous  data  exchange 
between  the  aircraft  and  ATM,  technology  is  essential  to  assist  the  human  in  its 
tasks, in providing options and contingency plan to avoid mid-air collision.  

979. In  airports,  where  a  lot  of  movements  from  different  vehicles  occurs,  the  biggest 
safety  threat  is  the  runway  incursion  during  a  landing  or  take-off  phase.  Also  on 
the apron, contact between vehicles and aircraft can cause hidden damages on an 
aircraft fuselage, putting at risk the flight when the cabin will be pressurised. With 

578 https://www.eltis.org/sites/default/files/integration_of_shared_mobility_approaches_in_sumps.pdf  

222 

 
                                                      
dozens  of  movement  per  hours  on  a  runway,  every  vehicle  must  be  adequately 
controlled and followed to avoid collision on the ground.  

980. Regular maintenance and management of air navigation aids is a major challenge 
as  it  is  the  guarantee  for  precise  guidance  of  aircraft.  Both  for  en-route  and 
approach  phases,  ground  or  satellite  based  guidance  stations  need  to  be  carefully 
maintained to provide a high level of reliance. 

981. In  addition,  as  all  transport  modes  become  increasingly  technology-dependent, 
resilience  against  cyber-attacks  is  essential.  From  a  legislative  point  of  view, 
cybersecurity  is  primarily  addressed  at  EU  level  by  a  horizontal  framework 
composed  of  the  Directive  on  security  of  network  and  information  systems  (NIS 
Directive)  and  the  Cybersecurity  Act.  The  latter  will  create  the  first-EU  wide 
certification  framework  for  ICT  products,  processes  and  services,  which  could 
have significance for transport (for instance by addressing 5G security). As for the 
NIS  Directive,  it  required  Member  States  to  designate  “Operators  of  Essential 
Services” (OES) across all economic sectors. These OES are required to take some 
cybersecurity  measures  (both  technical  and  organisational)  and  to  notify  serious 
incidents  to  the  national  authority.  This  approach  however  has  led  to  some 
inconsistencies among Member States. This was documented in a report published 
by the Commission on 28 October 2019. To close those gaps, the Commission has 
announced  its  intention  to  review  the  NIS  Directive  in  Q4  2020.  An  impact 
assessment  will  investigate  various  policy  options,  including  possible  regulatory 
interventions (e.g. amending the existing Directive or proposing a new legislative 
act  by  repealing  the  current  one),  soft  law  measures  (e.g.  guidelines  on  the 
identification of OES) as well as a combination of the two. 

982. For  the  transport  sector,  the  NIS  Directive  is  an  important  baseline  and  step 
forward in cybersecurity. At the same time, it can be less adapted to a sector like 
transport, which is  a “system of systems” and prone to  loopholes stemming from 
divergent Member State implementation. In aviation, for example, the evolution of 
the international framework (ICAO Annex 17 on Security) has already required the 
in  aviation  security 
adoption  of  secondary 
(Implementing Regulation 2019/1583). EASA has also launched two rule-making 
tasks  to  address  cybersecurity  from  a  safety  angle.  In  maritime,  there  have  been 
some  advances  at  the  level  of  the  IMO,  and  some  mandatory  rules  touching  on 
cybersecurity are set in EU maritime security legislation. 

legislation  on  cybersecurity 

983. The specificities of the sector therefore need to be addressed in consultation with 
transport stakeholders, taking into account existing obligations, as well as avoiding 
duplication  and  excessive  burden  on  Member  States.  We  should  also  ensure  that 
critical transport infrastructure is cyber secure by design, and continue to improve 
digital  skills  and  cyber-awareness  among  the  labour  force,  so  that  all  employees 
can really be the first line of defence against cyber-attacks. 

984. Civil  aviation  remains  an  attractive  target  for  terrorist  activity  in  today's 
geopolitical situation. The speed at which the EU is able to adapt aviation security 
rules to evolving threats to civil aviation is a critical element in tackling this risk. 

985. The purpose is  to  investigate existing mechanisms  and explore  future options for 
the  adaptability  of  aviation  security  in  response  to  an  act  or  an  anticipated 
imminent act of unlawful interference against civil aviation in order to protect air 
passengers  travelling  outbound  from  EU  airports  and  to  protect  air  passengers 
travelling  inbound  to  the  EU  from  third  countries.  This  should  also  cover  cases 
such as the overflight of conflict zones and cybersecurity. 

223 

 
986. The objective is  to  assess how EU Member States and air transport operators are 
today  placed  to  act  upon  time-critical  threat  information  that  requires  adapting 
aviation  security  measures  to  ensure  an  adequate  level  of  protection  for  air 
passengers. 

987. As  such,  options  should  be  identified  for  the  design  and  administration  of 
mechanisms that can adapt to protect air passengers travelling outbound from EU 
airports  and  air  passengers  travelling  inbound  to  the  EU  from  third  countries 
(including  the  overflight  of  their  territories)  from  imminent  acts  of  unlawful 
interference against civil aviation. 

988. Furthermore, with climate change, the extreme climate events will multiply. Lack 
of  resilience/robustness/contingency  measures  to  resist  severe  weather  events  or 
traffic disruptions affect safety and resilience of the transport system.  

4.3.5.2  Safe and secure infrastructure 

989. Ensuring safe and secure infrastructure is  also  a challenge and  a pre-requisite for 
sustainable  mobility,  notably  where  a  specific  infrastructure  is  needed  to  enable 
traffic  of  low  emissions  vehicles.  Many  pieces  of  transport  infrastructure  are 
ageing or lacking maintenance, which is a major safety concern.  

990. Lack of information  on the state of maintenance and repair of the EU’s transport 
infrastructure does not permit necessary preventive actions to be taken which could 
avoid  disasters  from  occurring.  In  addition,  there  are  no  EU-wide  applicable 
standards for construction of certain transport infrastructure, in particular roads and 
bridges  (each  country  sets  its  own  standards).  When  building  or  upgrading 
infrastructure,  future  maintenance  should  be  taken  into  account,  in  line  with  the 
lifecycle  approach;  sensors  installed  in  the  infrastructure  could  for  instance 
facilitate the assessment of maintenance needs. 

991. The  collapse  of  Genoa’s  Morandi  bridge  highlighted  the  lack  of  reliable 
information  on  the  state  of  maintenance  or  repair  of  much  of  the  EU’s  transport 
infrastructure. The EU has a significant proportion of ageing structures as part of 
its  transport  network  but  no  common  approach  on  ensuring  that  the  appropriate 
levels of maintenance are being undertaken. 

992. The EU Tunnel Safety Directive579 sets EU-wide minimum safety requirements for 
long road tunnels on the TEN-T network to  ensure that they are adequate for the 
volume of traffic and have emergency exits to prevent them from becoming death 
traps in an accident. These rules, in force since 2004, have been found to still be fit 
for  purpose,  in  spite  of  some  implementation  difficulties  in  a  few  countries. 
However,  no  comparable  rules  for  auditing,  inspecting  and  reporting  on 
infrastructure  quality  (e.g.  structural  quality  or  quality  over  lifetime)  exist  for 
bridges or other sensitive infrastructure. 

993. The revised Road Infrastructure Safety Management Directive580 obliges Member 
States to systematically assess the safety risks for using TEN-T roads, motorways 
and primary roads as well as all EU-funded roads and, on that basis, to establish a 
risk-based  prioritised  action  plan.  EU  funding  support  needs  to  be  well  aligned 
with  the  outcomes  of  this  process.  Funding  should  also  be  foreseen  for  tunnel 

579  Directive  2004/54/EC  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  29  April  2004  on  minimum  safety  requirements  for 
tunnels in the Trans-European Road Network, OJ L 167, 30.4.2004, p. 39. 
580 Directive (EU) 2019/1936 of 23 October 2019 amending Directive 2008/96/EC on road infrastructure safety management, OJ L 
305, 26.11.2019, p. 1. 

224 

 
                                                      
upgrades. The revision of the TEN-T guidelines offers the opportunity to consider 
infrastructure  quality  and  EU-wide  safety  standards  as  well  as  the  resilience  of 
infrastructure.      

994. In  an  era  of  increasing  automation,  safe  interaction  between  the  vehicle  and  the 
physical  and  digital  infrastructure  is  required.  For  road  traffic,  reliable  physical 
infrastructure  including  clear  road  signs  and  markings  will  remain  indispensable. 
In  order  to  enable  in  vehicle  driver  assistance  systems  like  Intelligent  Speed 
Assistance  and  Lane  Keeping  Assistance  (see  below)  to  function  properly  across 
Europe and to prepare a safe roll-out of more highly automated vehicles, EU-wide 
minimum  specifications  for  properly  reading  and  detecting  road  signs  and 
markings  are  necessary.  Moreover,  discrepancies  between  physical  and  digital 
infrastructure  (e.g.  physical  road  signs  indicating  different  speed  limits  from 
information available digitally for example in navigators) need to be prevented. 

995. Crashes at rail-road level crossings account for a small proportion of road crashes 
(up  to  2%  of  road  fatalities),  but  for  some  30%  of  fatalities  from  the  railways 
perspective.  Frequent  causes  of  crashes  include  bad  evaluation  of  risk,  lack  of 
attention,  and  misunderstanding  of  road  signs.  Increasing  the  safety  of  level 
crossings (where they cannot be removed) is a shared responsibility for both road 
and rail operators. At EU level, the Commission is working on closer cooperation 
between Member States and between the road and rail sector in the collection and 
analysis  of  crash  data  as  well  as  in  elaborating  safety  criteria  for  investment.  In 
addition, exchanges of good practice are helpful for example as regards preventive 
design,  new  technologies  (in  particular  C-ITS  services)  and  collaboration  in 
enforcement.  

996. Ensuring  security  of  transport  infrastructure  is  also  essential,  notably  to  ensure 
passengers’ confidence and it has strong financial and logistical  for the sector. In 
aviation,  rules  on  security  have  improved  the  consistency  of  security  standards 
implemented across Europe and helped in levelling the playing field for the benefit 
of  better  traveling  experience  and  security.  However,  according  to  Airports 
Council International (ACI - Europe) the aviation security system has also become 
over the years “a layer cake” of security measures, the overall complexity of which 
might  create  imbalances  in  the  security  system.  To  their  views  it  is  questionable 
whether  the  EU  and  Member  States  can  continue  to  rely  on  the  continued 
accumulation of security measures to mitigate the threat effectively. They call for a 
need  for  a  more  systematic  cost-benefit  approach  with  impact  assessment 
conducted on each new piece of legislation adopted in the field of security in order 
to ensure it is sustainable and efficient.  

4.3.5.3  Vehicle safety 

997. Innovations  in  road  vehicle  technology  can  help  both  mitigate  the  severity  of 
crashes and reduce the likelihood of crashes. Thanks to successive iterations of the 
Vehicle  General  Safety  Regulation  and  the  Pedestrian  Safety  Regulation,  the  EU 
has had a big impact in improving the safety of road vehicles. 

998. The  revision  of  the  Vehicle  General  Safety  Regulation,  adopted  in  early  2019581, 
which  mandates  a  range  of  new  advanced  safety  features  (including  Intelligent 

581 Regulation (EU) 2019/2144 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 November 2019 on type-approval requirements 
for motor vehicles and their trailers, and systems, components and separate technical units intended for such vehicles, as regards 
their general safety and the protection of vehicle occupants and vulnerable road users, OJ L 325, 16.12.2019, p. 1. 

225 

 
                                                      
Speed  Assistance,  Emergency  Lane  Keeping  System,  Direct  Vision  requirements 
for  buses  and  lorries  as  well  as  new  requirements  for  tyres,  is  conservatively 
estimated to save at least 7,300 lives and avoid 38,900 serious injuries by 2030. It 
is  crucial  to  maintain  the  high  level  of  ambition  of  the  regulation  in  all 
implementing  legislation,  which  is  in  the  process  of  being  developed.  The 
possibilities  of  retrofitting  of  existing  fleets  with  certain  safety  features,  for 
example  pedestrian  and  cyclist  detection  for  lorries  and  buses,  should  be  further 
explored. 

999. The  General  Safety  Regulation  will  also  help  for  crash  investigation,  as  all  new 
vehicles  will  be  required  to  be  fitted  with  event  data  recorders.  Possibilities  to 
compile  this  data,  access  rights  and  usage  modalities  need  to  be  explored. 
Moreover, it needs to be considered if and how the collection of anonymised data 
on the safety performance of automation technologies should be regulated in order 
to  allow  for  road  safety  research  and  development.  This  involves  important  data 
access and protection issues. 

1000.  Vehicle  procurement  also  presents  an  interesting  opportunity  to  positively 
influence road safety and fast-track the introduction of new safety technology. This 
holds for private owners of large vehicle fleets  and companies requiring  logistics 
services,  but  also  for  public  procurement.  The  EU  is  exploring  how  it  can 
financially  assist  initiatives  for  fleet  safety  upgrades  in  the  context  of  the  “Safer 
Transport Platform” (see above). 

1001.  The EU-wide eCall, a system that automatically dials Europe's single emergency 
number  112  in  the  event  of  a  serious  road  crash  and  communicates  the  vehicle's 
location  to  the  emergency  services,  has  been  mandatory  for  all  new  car  models 
since 2018. It can speed up emergency response times by 40% in urban areas and 
50%  in  the  countryside.  According  to  the  applicable  type  approval  legislation 
(Article  12  of  Regulation  (EU)  2015/758),  the  Commission  is  to  investigate  the 
need  to  equip  other  categories  of  vehicles  with  eCall,  such  as  heavy  goods 
vehicles, buses and coaches, powered two-wheelers, and agricultural tractors, and 
present if appropriate a legislative proposal to that effect. Preparatory actions have 
already  been  launched  and  are  well  advanced  or  completed,  such  as  support  to 
European  standardisation  organisations 
technical 
specifications  for  these  categories  of  vehicles,  and  support  to  testing  for  this 
extension  and  for  aftermarket  through  CEF-funded  projects  such  as  i_HeERO582 
and  sAFE583.  The  extension  of  eCall  is  expected  to  bring  about  considerable 
benefits,  e.g.  for  Powered  Two-Wheelers  a  3  to  8%  reduction  in  fatalities  and  a 
reduction of up to 10% in serious injuries584. The eCall legal framework needs also 
to  evolve  to  adapt  to  new  telecommunication  technologies  (packet-switched 
networks). 

the  necessary 

to  define 

4.3.5.4  The human factor 

1002.  Addressing the human factor is also essential to ensure safe and secure transport. 
Indeed, human behaviour affects transport safety, be it the consumption of drugs or 
alcohol,  distraction  when  driving  or  speed.  Traffic  crashes  related  to  alcohol 
consumption are a major cause for concern. Dangerous distractions caused by the 
use of mobile phones and other devices have strongly increased. 

582 https://iheero.eu/ 
583 https://safe112.eu/ 
584 Source: i_HeERO 

226 

 
 
                                                      
1003.  About  one  third  of  fatal  road  crashes  are  (partly)  caused  by  excessive  or 
inappropriate  speed.  And  higher  speed  crashes  lead  to  far  more  damage  than 
lower  speed  ones.  Based  on  research  results,585  the  European  Transport  Safety 
Council (ETSC) has calculated that if mean speeds were to drop by only 1 km/h on 
all  roads  across  the  EU,  more  than  2,200  road  deaths  could  be  prevented  every 
year.  The  problem  of  drink-driving  is  difficult  to  quantify  (data  collection 
methods  vary  widely),  but  it  is  realistic  to  estimate  that  alcohol  is  involved  in 
around 25% of all road deaths586. According to the EU strategy supporting Member 
States in reducing alcohol related harm587, about one crash in four can be linked to 
alcohol  consumption.  The  magnitude  of  the  influence  of  drugs  is  even  more 
difficult  to  ascertain,  as  no  harmonised  test  methods  exist  and  data  is  not  yet 
collected  systematically.  However,  it  has  been  shown  that  driving  under  the 
influence  of  some  prescription  drugs  and  illegal  drugs  can  multiply  the  risk  of  a 
crash by a factor of 2 to 7588. In addition, a growing amount of evidence suggests 
that  distraction  whilst  driving,  in  particular  by  mobile  devices  like  smartphones, 
but  also  by electronic systems  integrated in  vehicles, is  a major factor in causing 
crashes. Research found that the risk of being involved in a crash is increased by 
12.2  times  when  dialling  and  6.1  times  when  texting589.  In  epidemiological 
research, about 5 to 25% of car crashes have been attributed to driver distraction.590 
On  the  technical  level,  the  revised  Vehicle  General  Safety  Regulation  will 
introduce  driver  drowsiness  and  distraction  warning  technology,  assessing  the 
driver's alertness and warning the driver if needed, to be installed in vehicles on a 
mandatory basis.  

1004.  On all of the above, the Commission works closely with Member States as these 
matters  have  traditionally  been  dealt  with  at  national  or  even  sub-national  level. 
Focusing  on  general  education  and  awareness  has  been  shown  to  have  limited 
effect, but driver licensing, targeted education and awareness raising, supported by 
strong  and  sustained  compliance  and  enforcement  regimes,  all  have  an  important 
role to play. The EU Driving Licence Directive591, which established a harmonised 
EU  licence  model  and  introduced  minimum  requirements  for  obtaining  licences, 
will  have  to  be  kept  up  to  date  with  developments  in  vehicle  and  infrastructure 
technology.  Current  cross-border  enforcement  legislation592,  which  tackles  the 
biggest offences including speeding, running red  lights, failure to use safety belts 
and drink driving, is limited to the exchange of information between authorities on 
traffic  offences  committed  abroad.  The  Commission  services  are  currently 
assessing  how  it  could  be  made  more  effective.  Another  question  to  examine  is 
whether  the  mutual  recognition  of  driving  disqualifications  and  of  penalty  points 
between countries (where a penalty point system exists) could also be feasible and 
add value.  

585 Elvik et al. (2019): Elvik R, Vadeby A, Hels T and van Schagen I (2019) Updated estimates of the relationship between speed 
and road safety at the aggregate and individual levels. 
586 European Commission (2014), Study on the prevention of drink-driving by the use of alcohol interlock devices, Final Report. 
587 https://ec.europa.eu/health/ph_determinants/life_style/alcohol/documents/alcohol_com_625_en.pdf 
588 Final report of DRUID project (2012) (http://www.emcdda.europa.eu/publications/thematic-papers/druid_en) 
589 Dingus et al (2016): Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data.  
590Report on Driver Distraction 2018, European Road Safety Observatory 
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/road_safety/sites/roadsafety/files/pdf/ersosynthesis2018-driverdistraction.pdf 
591 Directive 2006/126/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 December 2006 on driving licences (Recast), OJ L 
403, 30.12.2006, p. 18. 
592 Directive (EU) 2015/413 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 2015 facilitating cross-border exchange of 
information on road-safety-related traffic offences, OJ L 68, 13.3.2015, p. 9. 

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1005.  In  addition,  EU  level  recommendations  such  as  the  Recommendation  on  the 
maximum permitted blood alcohol content for drivers593 from 2001 have had clear 
positive impact. A possible update of this Recommendation would benefit from the 
addition of guidance on the fitting of alcohol interlock devices (linking in with the 
General  Safety  Regulation,  which  facilitates  the  installation  of  these  devices). 
Similar  recommendations  or  guidance  in  other  areas  concerning  road  user  safety 
such as speed are under active consideration.  

1006.  While  bringing  many  opportunities  for  safety  improvements,  automation  also 
carries new challenges for safety and security. It notably requires adapted training. 
The phase in which drivers are expected to be ready to take back control suddenly 
is extremely problematic.  

1007.  Increasing levels of automation in transport carry the promise of diminishing the 
potential  harm  of  mistakes  and  deliberate  misbehaviour  of  human  drivers. 
However, unless entire transport systems are fully automated (and humans banned 
from driving), there will always be a human factor to take into account, which will 
become particularly acute in mixed traffic between highly automated vehicles and 
“traditional”  vehicles.  Even  in  fully  automated  systems,  non-motorised  transport 
users like pedestrians and cyclists will need to be protected. 

1008.  Risks may also arise from employees whose role provides them with privileged 
access  to  secured  locations,  secured  items  or  security  sensitive  information,  thus 
giving  them  a  potential  tactical  advantage  in  perpetrating  or  facilitating  an  act  of 
unlawful  interference  (insider  threat).  Efficient  and  effective  rules  on  whistle-
blowing are here an important aspect. 

4.3.5.5  Ensuring a high and equal level of safety and security across modes  

1009.  There  is  an  uneven  level  of  safety  across  modes:  it  is  much  more  mature  in 
some modes than in others. When considering the existence of safety culture in the 
various  transport  modes,  it  is  fair  to  say  that  it  has  reached  a  level  of  mature 
development  in  air  transport;  has  progressed,  in  comparison  to  the  past,  in  the 
maritime sector; is still at an early stage in the rail; and with a lot of development 
ahead for the road transport sector, although we are now committed to delivering 
the Safe System (also known as Vision Zero) approach (which borrows particularly 
from  aviation)  in  road  safety,  in  line  with  international  best  practices.  This  is 
compounded by an equally uneven level of security risk assessment across modes. 

1010.  Half  of  all  goods  moved  inside  the  EU  and  more  of  80%  of  passengers  are 
transported  by  road.  Whereas  the  relative  crash  risk  in  the  different  transport 
modes tends to be skewed in public perception, road fatalities constitute 97% of all 
transport  deaths  in  the  EU  (around  23,000  a  year)  and  generate  a  yearly  cost  of 
EUR 282 billion, or 2% of GDP. In addition, road safety levels vary widely across 
the EU. The worst performing countries record nearly four times as many fatalities 
per  million  inhabitants  as  the  best  performing  countries.  EU  legislation  and  best 
practices exchange have already helped facilitate convergence, but more efforts are 
needed. 

1011.  Improved data collection and analysis of accidents and incidents in all modes as 
well as closer cooperation across modes can help to better understand the causes of 

593  Commission  recommendation  of  17  January  2001  on  the  maximum  permitted  blood  alcohol  content  (BAC)  for  drivers  of 
motorised vehicles.  

228 

 
                                                      
 
crashes  and  to  identify  the  best  remedies.  Issues  in  relation  to  human-machine 
interface also present similarities across modes. 

1012.  In aviation, EU rules impose on Member States to conduct investigation in cases 
of  accidents  or  serious  incidents.  In  addition,  occurrences  are  required  to  be 
reported, analysed and followed up with adequate safety actions.     

1013.  As regards road safety, harmonised reporting of fatalities and serious injuries in 
the CARE group is an example of excellent cooperation between Member States, 
going beyond what is legally required. However, there are still difficulties with the 
reporting of serious injuries according to the agreed common definition, and only 
very  few  Member  States  carry  out  systematic  in-depth  investigation  of  road 
crashes. An in-depth investigation system at EU level, gathering data on road and 
rail crashes, especially one focused on unpacking the causal factors of deaths and 
fatal  injuries  in  a  particular  crash  would  greatly  assist  safety  authorities  in 
developing further safety policies and, in the long run, an occurrence reporting and 
investigation  approach  similar  to  the  one  established  in  aviation.  This  would 
require  clear  rules  on  the  access  and  use  of  data  generated  by  vehicles  and 
connected infrastructure, as well as additional capacity at EU level. 

1014.  The  main  share  of  cargo  crime  in  road  transport  (around  70%)  occurs  when 
lorries  are  parked  at  non-secured  parking  areas.  Such  crimes  are  affecting  the 
overall  supply  chain  and  it  impacts  drivers,  who  reportedly  –  at  a  rate  of  25%  - 
have been exposed to attacks or violence when resting in their cabins. Regrettably, 
it has been estimated that there is a serious lack of safe and secure parking areas of 
around  100,000  spaces  in  the  EU.  Such  safe  and  secure  parking  areas  could 
considerably reduce  cargo crime and they could  at  the same time provide drivers 
with better and safer resting conditions, which are crucial for road safety and more 
generally for the social well-being of drivers594. 

1015.  In  maritime,  third  country  flagged  vessels  can  call  into  any  EU  port.  It  is 
therefore  essential  to  have  a  robust  and  harmonised  system  of  vessel  inspections 
independent  of  their  flag  to  verify  the  competency  of  the  officers  and  crew  on 
board,  the  condition  of  the  ship  and  its  equipment,  its  compliance  with  the 
requirements  of  the  international  conventions  on  safety  and  environmental 
protection  and  that  the  vessel  is  manned  and  operated  in  compliance  with 
applicable  international  law.  This  is  currently  achieved  through  Port  State 
control595  (PSC)  but  it  has  been  observed  that  over  the  last  ten  years  more 
environmental  checks  (related  to  sulphur596,  GHG  emissions,  ship-recycling)  are 
being added to the inspection requirements (either at the international or EU level) 
and  it  is  expected  that  this  will  further  increase  in  the  medium  term.  It  will 
therefore  be  necessary  to  try  to  support  the  inspection  effort  of  the  competent 
authorities in the Member States. 

1016.  To  improve  the  inspection  process  more  use  should  be  made  of  existing  and 
future capabilities in the field of electronic information (e-certificates etc.) to allow 
for  more  targeted  inspections  concentrating  on  operational  issues  rather  than 
documentation. The more information is provided to inspection authorities (both to 
inspectors and port State control officers) in an agreed electronic format in advance 
of inspection, the more efficient and targeted it can be. Consideration could also be 

594 According to  IRU, Europe is lacking daily 100,000 parking spots for truck drivers, to take their legally mandatory breaks and 
rests, whilst most of the existing parking areas are below acceptable standards. 
595  Directive  2009/16/EC  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  23  April  2009  on  port  State  control,  OJ  L  131, 
28.5.2009, p. 57. 
596 COM(2018) 188 final 

229 

 
                                                      
given to the idea of developing an incentive mechanism for further enhancing EU 
quality  shipping  taking  inspiration  from  e.g.  the  US  Coast  Guard  “Qualship21” 
programme. 

1017.  Containers lost at sea pose a problem for both navigational safety and the marine 
environment. While the number of containers lost overboard is relatively small the 
impact can be large. As a first step, it is important that the size of the problem is 
understood  and  it  is  therefore  proposed  that  a  single  mandatory  global  reporting 
system  for lost containers based on the EU model  is  pursued at  IMO level.  As it 
seems  that  there  are  significant  problems  with  the  verified  gross  mass  (VGM)  of 
containers  it  is  proposed  that  a  single  system  for  VGM  linked  with  third  part 
verification  of  VGM  is  trialled  and  that  third  party  verification  of  container 
contents (on a sample basis) could be considered, this also links with the growing 
problem  of  container  fires  due  to  undeclared  or  wrongly  declared  cargos.    
Consideration  also  needs  to  be  given  to  the  issues  of  container  standards,  their 
stacked strength and periodic inspection.  

1018.  An  important  aspect  of  improving  maritime  safety  is  the  investigation  of 
maritime accidents so that lessons can be learned. Currently Directive 2009/18/EC 
incorporates  the  principles  underlying  the  relevant  international  requirements 
(IMO)  into  EU  law.  This  being  said  the  establishment  of  a  permanent  accident 
investigation body is  seen as a heavy  resource  burden for smaller member States 
and  states  with  small  fleets.  It  may  be  opportune  to  identify  means  to  support  to 
Member States in the exercise of their accident investigation obligations either by 
sharing  and/or  pooling  resources,  making  use  of  the  European  Maritime  Safety 
Agency (EMSA) and benefitting from EU-wide facilities. 

1019.  Safety in sea ports is closely related to evolutions in the shipping sector. Social 
partners  have  raised  concerns  about  increased  safety  risks  posed  by  mega-sized 
vessels  or  the  growing  number  of  overweight  and  mis-declared  containers. 
Attention should also be brought to the need to increase the safety of port workers 
handling cargo on-board ships. The question of safety for workers at ship recycling 
facilities is  also  a source of concern. The EU Ship  Recycling Regulation  sets  out 
criteria in  that respect,  which need to  be complied with  by shipowners of vessels 
flying an EU flag and yards included in the EU list of ship recycling facilities597.  

1020.  In line with the evolution of international rules and technological change of the 
waterborne  sector,  the  overall  safety  framework  (Directives  on  flag  state 
responsibilities, port state control and accident investigation) there may be a need 
to  review,  in  particular  as  regards  the  role  and  responsibilities  of  States  as  Flag 
States, to ensure internal coherence and external fitness of such rules.  

1021.  Another  important  aspect  of  safe  and  sustainable  maritime  shipping  relates  to 
conditions  within  which  ships  are  treated  at  their  end  of  their  life-cycle.  The  EU 
Ship Recycling Regulation aims, among others, to prevent, reduce, minimise and, 
to the extent practicable, eliminate accidents, injuries and other adverse effects on 
human  health  and  the  environment  caused  by  ship  recycling.  It  also  aims  to 
facilitate the ratification of the 2009 Hong Kong International Convention for the 
Safe  and  Environmentally  Sound  Recycling  of  Ships.  The  EU  Ship  Recycling 
Regulation  may  need  to  be  revised  and  strengthened  in  order  to  ensure  that  its 
objectives are fully achieved in practice. 

597 https://ec.europa.eu/environment/waste/ships/list.htm 

230 

 
                                                      
1022.  In  inland  navigation,  harmonised  technical  standards  have  been  put  in  place 
(technical  requirements  for  vessels  and  professional  requirements  for  crew 
members) but there is still a lack of common rules for inspection bodies ensuring 
an equal high level of service as in other modes of transport. Similarly, the lack of 
uniform criteria concerning the conditions for registering inland navigation vessels 
does not guarantee a minimum level of quality of national registries. 

1023.  Finally,  although air transport stands out  as  an exception in  view of the robust 
safety  oversight  system  it  has  developed,  weak  Member  State  enforcement  of 
applicable rules also pose safety and security challenges in the transport sector. In 
the  EU,  there  are  insufficient  resources  dedicated  to  performing  oversight,  which 
affects  the  ability  of  authorities  to  enforce  EU  rules  on  safety  and  security.  In 
addition, in maritime transport there is a lack of a comprehensive framework that 
would  ensure  that  every  single  ship  trading  in  EU  waters,  regardless  of  its  flag, 
would meet the applicable internationally agreed requirements. And in some areas, 
rules and oversight are very fragmented (e.g. rules on the use of personal mobility 
devices). 

1024.  In road transport, the Cross-Border Enforcement  Directive598 provides Member 
State  authorities  with  access  to  each  other’s  vehicle  registers  via  an  electronic 
information  system  that  enables  the  identification  of  the  presumed  non-resident 
offender  in  cases  where  it  was  impossible  to  stop  the  vehicle  and/or  identify  the 
driver. However, an evaluation of the Directive showed that approximately half of 
the detected road traffic offences committed by non-residents were not investigated 
and approximately half of the financial penalties for those road traffic offences by 
non-residents that had been investigated were not successfully enforced. Practically 
all offences where offenders refused to pay financial penalties were not enforced. 
Therefore, the Directive needs to be made more effective. In addition, the mutual 
recognition of driving disqualifications might be considered. 

1025.  Regulation  (EC)  No  391/2009  on  the  ship  inspection  and  certification 
companies,  the  so-called  “recognised  organisations”  (ROs),  has  brought  about  in 
the last  11  years significant  improvements  in  maritime safety. This  was achieved 
by enhanced monitoring of ROs to which EU flags entrust the safety inspections of 
their fleet. However, after 11 years the Regulation is showing some limitations. A 
significant  number  of  third-country  ships  calling  at  EU  ports  (around  10%  of  all 
ships  calling)  is  still  inspected  by  non-EU  recognised  organisations.  Therefore, 
third  flags  using  ROs  are  escaping  the  scrutiny  imposed  to  the  rest  of  the  ships. 
There  are  also  conflicts  of  interest  in  the  provision  of  consultancy  services.  The 
ROs are increasingly providing consultancy services in parallel with inspection and 
certification. This has created instances whereby the ROs are advisers to the same 
ship-owner whose ships are afterwards being inspected. In addition, the Regulation 
does not regulate a new phenomenon appeared in the last 11 years under which the 
ROs are entering into agreements between themselves to  conduct  work on behalf 
of  each  other  leading  to  a  full  certification  issued  by  a  RO  without  itself    
conducting the inspection. 

1026.  Remote  inspections  already  existed  before  the  COVID-19  pandemic  and  have 
now  become  the  norm  for  around  40%  of  the  inspections  tacking  place.  The 
provision of remote inspections leading to full certification is regulated neither in 
EU legislation nor by way of international conventions.  

598 Directive (EU) 2015/413 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 2015 facilitating cross-border exchange of 
information on road-safety-related traffic offences, OJ L 68, 13.3.2015, p. 9. 

231 

 
                                                      
1027.  In addition, and in accordance with Article 14 (1) of Regulation (EC) 2009/391, 
the Commission is empowered to adopt criteria to measure the effectiveness of the 
rules and procedures of the ROs. This is the only missing piece of the revamp of 
the  legislative  framework  introduced  in  2009  regarding  the  monitoring  and 
oversight  of  ROs.  These  criteria  could  reflect  at  EU  level  relevant  criteria  and 
standards (Goal based standards for the rules of classification societies) agreed at 
the IMO level, allowing an assessment of ROs at an additional level: whether their 
rules  are  meeting  the  internationally  agreed  standards  or  not.  Furthermore, 
Commission  decision  2009/491/EC  on  criteria  to  measure  performance  of  ROs 
could also be updated, to determine when such performance is to be considered an 
unacceptable threat to safety or the environment. 

1028.  Transition  to  risk  based  approach  also  brings  challenges,  notably  for 
oversight,  as it moves away from  rules compliance checking.  It  is a new way for 
competent authorities and industry, based on known risks and safety performance, 
to discharge their responsibilities and find a way to better target the safety areas of 
greater  concern  or  need.  It  is  a  way  of  performing  surveillance  based  on  the  risk 
profile where, besides the insurance of compliance with the regulations, a focus is 
on  the  management  of  operational  risk(s).  This  in  turn  requires  a  mechanism  for 
better identifying hazards, measuring associated risks as well as providing a way to 
demonstrate  how  these  risk(s)  can  effectively  be  mitigated.  This  approach  can 
enable  the  competent  authorities  and  industry  to  focus  their  attention  on 
organisations and/or transport activities that require additional or higher attention, 
i.e.  making  best  use  of  limited  resources.  A  key  enabler  for  this  approach  to  be 
catered  for  in  the  regulatory  framework,  is  the  ability  and  capability  to  collect, 
analyse  and  exchange  safety  data.  Access  to  data  is  essential  to  support  a  risk-
based approach as part of an effective (safety) management system. 

1029.  In  this  context,  the  increased  focus  on  strengthened  inter-modality  across  the 
various  modes  of  transport  constitutes  a  catalyst  for  developing  a  ‘harmonised’ 
approach to safety oversight and management. 

232 

 
 
 
 
4.4  External dimension 

1030.  Transport  is  international  by  nature.  Broad  and  deep  transport  connectivity 
strengthens  our  economies  and  helps  our  societies  prosper.  Transport  plays  a 
crucial role in  connecting the EU with  its neighbours and ensuring safe, efficient 
and sustainable mobility for people and goods. In an increasingly globalised world, 
it  is  the  lifeblood  of  our  economies.  With  most  third  countries,  machinery  and 
transport  equipment  represents  40-50%  of  total  exports.  Transport  services 
accounts  on  average  for  17  %  of  total  services  exports.  EU  transport  policy  is 
influenced  - and in many areas determined  - by the global regulatory framework. 
And  with  emerging  global  powers  consolidating  their  economic  and  regulatory 
reach,  the  EU  is  confronted  with  a  more  diverse  global  arena  to  assert  its 
transport  agenda.  Although  its  economic  power  and  influence  in  international 
transport  organisations  remain  significant,  on  the  global  stage  the  EU  is  facing 
more  challenges  in  exercising  a  global  role  that  is  commensurate  with  its 
regulatory, economic and technical strengths.  

1031.  This  is  notably  the  case  in  areas  of  aviation  and  maritime  transport,  which 
inherently have a strong global dimension, and where the ambitious EU approach 
is  often  questioned,  especially  on  topics  such  as  sustainability,  competition, 
social matters and the rule of law. For land transport, there is an evident need for 
more effective coordination of international rules, as well as a need to strengthen 
the EU position and influence in the ongoing harmonisation of rail transport.  

1032.  It is essential that road transport operators established in non-EU countries apply 
equivalent high social standards when operating transport services on the territory 
of  the  EU.  This  would  prevent  distortions  of  competition  between  EU  operators 
and non EU-operators and ensure that all workers carrying out activities on the EU 
territory  benefit  from  the  same  minimum  rights.  The  rules  governing,  in  general, 
the transport operations for non-EU operators under AETR (Accord Européen sur 
les Transports Routiers) are only partially aligned with the EU social rules for the 
road  transport  sector.  The  EU  has  been  discussing  with  the  AETR  non-EU 
countries the alignment of requirements on installation and use of smart tachograph 
in commercial vehicles operating on and through the EU territory.  

1033.  At  more  fundamental  level,  recent  geopolitical  developments  are  challenging 
some of the core principles around which the global multilateral system was built, 
thus  putting  global  trade  and  transport  under  increased  pressure.  In  addition,  the 
distortions of competition and the state-driven strategies of some among the EU’s 
global partners have meant the EU has had to have a tighter grip on defending its 
strategic interests at home and abroad. Foreign ownership and investment projects 
at  home  bearing  on  strategic  transport  nodes  and  infrastructure  are  thus  being 
subject to closer scrutiny. The EU has already equipped itself to face security and 
public  order  threats:    Regulation  (EU)  2019/452599  has  introduced  a  framework 
under which Member States can screen foreign direct investments into the EU on 
the  grounds  of  security  or  public  order.  It  provides  a  mechanism  for  cooperation 
between  Member  States,  and  between  Member  States  and  the  Commission,  with 
regard  to  foreign  direct  investments  likely  to  affect  security  or  public  order;  and 
gives the Commission the possibility to issue an opinion on such investments. To 
further  improve  the  protection  of  a  level  playing  field  and  safeguard  strategic 
interests in the transport sector, there might be a need to establish clearer rules for 

599 Regulation (EU) 2019/452 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 March 2019 establishing a framework for the 

screening of foreign direct investments into the Union, OJ L 79I , 21.3.2019, p. 1. 

233 

 
                                                      
all  owners  of  strategic  transport  infrastructure  in  terms  of  non-discriminatory 
access  for  users,  availability  for  public  service  needs,  requirements  for  dual  use, 
respect  of  technical  standards,  etc.  At  the  same  time,  where  restrictions  exist  to 
foreign investments in the EU (e.g. ownership and control of airlines), they could 
limit the ability of EU companies to compete globally. 

1034.  More widely, better coordination and integration of the EU's  external transport 
agenda  with  other  external  policy  goals,  including  in  trade  and  cooperation,  can 
create synergy effects, lead to mutual reinforcement and improve effectiveness in 
achieving external policy objectives in these policy areas. 

4.4.1  EU leadership 

1035.  The  EU’s  ability  to  be  heard  internationally  and  follow  through  its  intent 
depends on its ability to influence, as such, the global standard setting in transport. 
The 2017 Singapore Opinion of the European Court of Justice600 largely clarified 
the EU's external competences in the field of transport, also as regards the issue of 
exclusive  external  competence.  In  2011  the  EU  acceded  to  the  Convention 
concerning 
the 
intergovernmental organization dedicated to such carriage (OTIF). This is the first 
accession of this kind in the area of transport. 

International  Carriage  by  Rail 

(COTIF),  and 

joined 

1036.  In the rail sector, the EU model is the basis of the OTIF technical legislation and 
is also taken as the starting point by various countries and in global fora (e.g. OTIF 
technical legislation) for the development of safety and interoperability regulations. 
The  European  Rail  Traffic  Management  System  (ERTMS)  is  also  implemented 
beyond the Union and has the potential to become a global reference. 

1037.  In the maritime sector, the EU plays a key role in driving forward the safety and 
environmental  standards  set  at  global  level  by  the  International  Maritime 
Organization  (IMO).  Capacity  building  and  outreach  to  developing  countries, 
namely  LDCs  and  SIDS,  is  a  pre-requisite  for  an  inclusive  global  transition  to 
sustainable  shipping.  Among  others,  the  EU  therefore  funds  the  Global  Maritime 
Technology  Cooperation  Centres,  promoting  technologies  and  operations  to 
improve energy efficiency in the maritime sector and help navigate shipping into a 
low-carbon future.  

1038.  In  the  inland  waterways  sector,  the  EU  cooperates  with  other  international 
organisations,  such  as  the  UN-ECE,  CCNR601  or  the  Danube  Commission  on 
various topics  related to  standards and safety. These organisations have members 
from  both  the  EU  and  non-EU  countries:  this  can  facilitate  integration  and 
harmonisation of approaches between EU and non-EU states. 

1039.  The  EU  is  a  world  leader  in  road  safety,  with  just  2%  of  the  estimated  1.35 
million fatalities per year occurring on EU roads. The EU’s example is often cited, 
and  know-how  and  good  practice  from  the  EU  and  its  Member  States  is  in  high 
demand. The EU takes its leadership role seriously, for example in supporting the 
road  safety  work  of  its  immediate  neighbours  (Western  Balkans  and  Eastern 
Partnership), in intensified cooperation with Africa (following the work of the EU-
Africa  Taskforce  on  Transport)  and  in  contributing  to  UN  Road  Safety  Fund602. 
The  EU  also  plays  a  strong  role  vis-à-vis  the  United  Nations  Economic 

600 Opinion 2/15 of the Court of 16 May 2017, ECLI:EU:C:2017:376. 
601 Commission centrale pour la navigation du Rhin (CCNR) 
602 The European Commission is a member of and currently chairs the Advisory Board of the UN Road Safety Fund. 

234 

 
                                                      
Commission  for  Europe  (UNECE),  in  particular  as  regards  vehicle  regulations 
(World Forum for Harmonisation of Vehicle Regulations, Working Party 29). It is 
assessing  how  its  role  could  also  be  reinforced  as  regards  traffic  rules  (Global 
Forum for Road Traffic Safety, Working Party 1). As an example both the recent 
testing  cycle  and  the  on-road  tests  for  the  emission  type  approvals  of  cars  were 
developed  with  the  leadership  of  the  Union,  represented  by  the  Commission.  A 
stronger EU role as regards traffic rules in UNECE could also be beneficial. 

1040.  When it comes to urban mobility, the EU concept of sustainable urban mobility 
planning  (with dedicated guidelines) has become a point of reference  worldwide, 
with many cities beyond the EU getting inspired by the EU SUMP approach and 
translating the guidelines into local languages. In addition, an EU-funded project - 
MobiliseYourCity  -  has  become  the  leading  global  partnership  for  sustainable 
urban mobility planning, with more than 60 member cities in 32 countries with a 
combined  population  of  over  75  million  people.  It  accelerates  the  transition  to 
sustainable  urban  mobility  in  countries  of  the  Global  South  by  disseminating 
knowledge, tools and guidelines based on the Commission’s SUMP concept603.     

1041.  Similarly,  when  it  comes  to  campaigns  raising  awareness  and  promoting 
behavioural  change  in  urban  mobility,  European  Mobility  Week604  is  the  world-
wide  leader  and  a  point  of  reference.  It  gradually  attracts  more  and  more  cities 
from outside of the EU, with over 2,945 cities from 53 countries covering almost 
all continents registered in 2020 edition.     

1042.  In the field of aviation, all EU Member States are members of ICAO. In areas of 
Union competence, the  positions of the Union are established in  accordance with 
the Treaties and  are binding on the Union Member States. On a more operational 
level,  there  are  existing  ties  with  ICAO  through  the  EU-ICAO  Memorandum  of 
Cooperation. Technical cooperation offered by the EU to ICAO and ICAO States 
in  areas  of  key  importance  such  as  safety,  security  and  environment  also  plays  a 
fundamental role in building the EU’s influence in the decision making spheres at 
global level.  

1043.  The  EU  is  funding  technical  cooperation  projects  in  a  number  of  third-
countries.  Third  country  cooperation  takes  place  also  via  EU  agencies  such  as 
EMSA  or  EASA,  which  play  a  key  role  in  technical  cooperation  activities;  for 
example  through  EMSA’s  capacity  building  activities  to  non-EU  countries 
bordering the Black and Caspian Sea, to name a notable example. 

1044.  The EU has also a long-standing tradition in promoting international cooperation 
via R&I programs. With the overarching objective of international cooperation, the 
R&I  programmes  set  high-level  objectives  of  strengthening  EU  science  in 
technology,  fostering  EU  industrial  competitiveness  and  innovation  performance, 
or  delivering  on  the  EU’s  strategic  priorities,  such  as  the  Paris  Agreement  on 
climate  and  tackling  global  challenges  that  affect  the  quality  of  our  daily  lives. 
However,  the  programmes  are  sometimes  missing  further  sector  and  project 
specific goals for global and industrial competitiveness.  

4.4.2  EU global competitiveness 

1045.  Promoting  high  EU  standards  that  ensure  safe,  secure,  smart  and  sustainable 
transport is a key international cooperation goal.    It is instrumental in supporting 

603 https://mobiliseyourcity.net/about_the_partnership  
604 https://mobilityweek.eu/home/  

235 

 
                                                      
EU industry access to foreign markets, but more importantly, it is the only way to 
the  decarbonisation  and 
successfully  address  major  challenges  such  as 
digitalisation of transport. For instance, the EU has state of the art aviation safety, 
security  and  air  traffic  management  regulatory  frameworks.  The  joint  and 
coordinated promotion of EU’s regulatory standards in the safety, interoperability, 
social, employment and environmental fields on one side, and the consolidation of 
EU technical standards as global references on the other side can create synergies 
and have beneficial effects. They can reinforce each other in ensuring that the “EU 
model” keeps its attractiveness and is applied widely beyond the EU borders. This 
would also support ensuring a level-playing field with non-EU countries. 

1046.  This is especially relevant for the aviation industry. Whether it is in the area of 
standardisation,  innovative  technologies  or  regulations,  the  promotion  of  EU 
standards at  global  level has many  advantages.  It contributes to  harmonisation of 
the  regulatory  frameworks  for  global  aviation,  meaning  that  the  industry  can 
operate  in  more  world  regions  with  the  same  standards.  Secondly,  it  allows 
European  industry  more  easily  to  reach  new  markets  and  tap  into  the  growth  of 
other regions of the world. 

1047.  However,  in  the  area  of  technical  standards,  the  EU  and  its  companies  are  not 
yet playing a role commensurate with their industrial importance, e.g. in areas such 
as ATM, drones and cyber security. EU standards bodies such as EUROCAE are 
playing  a  key  role  and  could  help  the  EU  industry  to  be  better  represented  in 
leading international standard-setting bodies. 

1048.  Ensuring a level playing field on global markets will be a key challenge for the 
EU to secure a prosperous and successful environment for its transport sector, but 
also to achieve the key policies and ambitions the EU has set out in this sector  – 
including sustainability. Today, there appears to be two main problems associated 
with this. Problems arising from the degree of market access available to European 
suppliers of transport equipment and/or service providers as compared to those of 
third  countries;  and  issues  of  level  playing  field,  where  European  transport 
operators  do  not  compete  under  comparable  conditions,  in  particular  as  regards 
regulatory requirements (e.g. technical, social, safety and environmental standards, 
State  aid  or  financial  rules)  as  those  of  third  country  operators  serving  the  same 
markets.  This  objective  can  be  achieved  by  promoting  international  standards  in 
different  fora  or  through  the  negotiation  of  bilateral  agreements  between  the  EU 
and the respective third country. International standards can prove to be valuable in 
promoting  environmental  and  social  sustainability  globally  and  ensuring  a  level 
playing  field  for  European  companies.  Most  notably,  the  ILO’s  Maritime  Labour 
Convention  of  2006  and  its  occupational  safety  and  health  standards  serve  as  a 
good basis for promoting a level playing field.  

1049.  In addition, the Union adopted a regulation605 on safeguarding competition in air 
transport in 2019. This regulation lays down rules on the conduct of investigations 
by  the  Commission  and  on  the  adoption  of  redressive  measures,  relating  to 
practices  distorting  competition  between  Union  air  carriers  and  third-country  air 
carriers and causing, or threatening to cause, injury to Union air carriers. 

605 Regulation (EU) 2019/712 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 April 2019 on safeguarding competition in air 
transport, OJ L 123, 10.5.2019, p. 4. 

236 

 
                                                      
4.4.3  External connectivity 

1050.  In  addition  to  participation  in  multilateral  organisations,  the  EU  pursues  its 
global  transport  agenda  via  bilateral  and  multilateral  agreements.  There  are 
several  horizontal  trade  or  cooperation  agreements  with  third  countries,  which 
cover  also  transport,  including  the  provision  of  transport  services  (e.g.  maritime 
transport  services).  Waterborne  transport  is  particularly  important  accounting  for 
the transport of 75% of extra-EU trade. Given its importance for connectivity and 
cargo,  a  chapter  on  international  maritime  transport  services,  which  includes 
maritime auxiliary services as well as ports services, is hence provided for in EU 
trade  deals,  generally  Free-Trade-Agreements  (FTAs).  The  EU  has  recently 
concluded important trade deals with a maritime transport component, such as with 
Canada, Singapore, and Vietnam; the EU is currently negotiating trade deals with 
maritime transport provisions also with Australia, New Zealand, China etc.  

1051.   The above mentioned 2017 Singapore Opinion of the European Court of Justice 
has clarified a number of competence-related issues, in particular issues of external 
competence, including in the area of maritime transport.  

1052.  Furthermore  sectoral  transport  agreements  already  exist  with  several  strategic 
third countries, in particular in the aviation sector, but also the road and maritime 
sectors  (EU  –  China  Maritime  Transport  Agreement).  It  may  be  explored  with 
which  third  countries  the  EU  should  negotiate  new  transport  agreements,  for 
example in order to promote regulatory alignment.      

1053.  Like  the  EU’s  internal  market,  the  extra-EU  market  has  seen  growing 
competition  with  emerging  carriers  from  third  countries  rapidly  developing  their 
market shares. This accrued new competition creates challenges for traditional EU 
carriers  to  adapt  where  non-EU  airlines  have  expanded  their  international 
operations  considerably.  Such  airlines  have  benefitted  from  geography,  strategic 
support from their respective home countries and, in some cases, a rapidly-growing 
domestic market.  

1054.  Whereas  the  emergence  of  such  airlines  has  enlarged  choices  for  passengers, 
they  also  represent  a  challenge  to  the  connectivity  provided  by  network  carriers 
based in the EU. Market access for air services is governed by a complex web of 
bilateral air services agreements with little role for ICAO. The EU has developed 
and  signed  comprehensive  agreements  with  a  number  of  key  aviation  partners. 
These  EU-level  agreements  provide  a  comprehensive  framework  governing  the 
aviation relationship between the third country and all EU Member States together. 
They cover already 45% of all external air traffic from the EU. Experience shows 
that  significant  benefits  arise  from  such  agreements,  notably  in  terms  of 
connectivity  and  affordability.  The  EU’s  comprehensive  aviation  agreements 
therefore  seek  to  establish  a  broad  ranging  relationship  going  well  beyond  traffic 
rights,  to  include  technical  cooperation  and  ambitious  competition,  social  and 
environmental  standards.  Liberalisation  of  air  services  markets  is  strongly  linked 
with a more level playing field. 

1055.  Recently  negotiated new agreements such  as with Qatar have set  a new  model 
for  the  EU’s  external  aviation  relations,  and  have  strengthened  the  confidence  of 
EU  Member  States  in  a  joint  approach  towards  third  country  partners.  Further 
engagement  is  essential  between  the  EU  and  third  countries  of  strategic  interest 
where an EU comprehensive agreement adds value. This has also been recognised 
by  the  European  associations  collectively  representing  the  entire  European 
aviation.  Their  urgent  call  and  accompanying  report  considers  that  the  EU  and 
Member  States  should  continue  to  promote  a  competitive  EU  aviation  industry 
237 

 
globally,  including  through  EU  negotiated  bilateral  and  multilateral  aviation 
agreements where added value and economic benefits have been demonstrated for 
the  EU  aviation  ecosystem,  as  well  as  consumers,  based  on  fair  competition  and 
high  standards  in  areas  such  as  safety,  consumer  protection,  environment  and 
social rights.606   

1056.  Transport is a key component of policies and instruments under the enlargement 
process  (Western  Balkans)  and  under  the  EU  neighbourhood  policy  (Eastern 
Partnership and Union for the Mediterranean). Connectivity in these regions at the 
EU  borders  is  pursued  through  the  extension  of  the  TEN-T  policy  and  networks, 
with  two  interlinked  objectives:  (i)  ensuring  consistency  and  effectiveness  of  an 
integrated  multimodal  connectivity  between  the  networks  of  the  EU  and  of  its 
partners; (ii) focusing EU cooperation (including as regards financial support, e.g. 
through the Investment Action Plan in the Eastern Partnership). 

1057.  At this stage, the EU has reached an agreement to extend the TEN-T network to 
the Western Balkans, the Eastern Partnership607 and the comprehensive network 
in  Turkey.  Work  of  the  Southern  Mediterranean  partners608  on  a  Trans-
Mediterranean Transport Network is underway, pending the approval still awaited 
by some non-EU countries in the region. Also Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein 
(EFTA-EEA countries) are covered by the extended TEN-T networks, through the 
European Economic Area Agreement. 

1058.  On soft measures, the EU actively supports regulatory reforms and convergence 
and  strengthened  technical  dialogue.  This  addresses  notably  safety,  sustainable 
connectivity and high-level and rules-based standards in all transport modes, with 
the operational involvement of the European Transport Agencies.  

1059.  In particular, the Transport Community Treaty with the six Western Balkans 
(WB6)  countries  constitutes  a  high  level  of  policy  integration  in  the  transport 
sector. Through this international agreement, the EU and WB6 aim at progressive 
access to the EU transport market for all modes of transport, except aviation which 
is  covered  by  the  European  Common  Aviation  Area  Agreement  (ECAA),  in 
exchange  for  applying  EU  norms  and  at  an  integrated  regional  market  through 
specific action plans focusing on rail, road safety and cross-border facilitation. The 
TCT Permanent Secretariat was established in 2019 and became fully operational 
in 2020 following the ongoing recruitment process conducted with the support of 
the Commission. 

1060.  Over  90%  of  world  economic  growth  over  the  next  decade  will  occur  outside 
Europe.  Ensuring  adequate  links  (through  political,  economic  and  regulatory 
cooperation)  with  these  growth  centres  by  promoting  connectivity,  the  uptake  of 
highly  advanced  and  modern  EU  standards  (on  safety,  security,  social, 
environmental  and  other  requirements)  and  boosting  the  role  of  European 
stakeholders,  especially  the  EU  transport  industry,  can  benefit  the  EU  and  its 
global  partners.  Due  to  its  impressive  growth,  there  has  been,  over  the  last  few 
years, considerable focus on ASEAN as a region. There is now a well-established 
Transport Dialogue at the highest technical level, with the EU being the only non-
Asian Transport Dialogue partner of ASEAN. There is also a Transport Dialogue 
with  Singapore,  considering  it  is  an  important  transport  hub  and  world  leader  in 
digitalisation and decarbonisation of transport, as well as with Japan. Taking into 

606 European Aviation Round Table Report on the Recovery of European Aviation, November 2020. 
607 Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine 
608  The  Southern  Partnership  of  the  European  Neighbourhood  Policy  covers  Algeria,  Egypt,  Israel,  Jordan,  Lebanon,  Libya, 
Morocco, Palestine*, Syria (cooperation suspended since 2011) and Tunisia. 

238 

 
                                                      
account  technological  developments,  discussions  are  also  on-going  on  deepening 
transport relations with Australia. The Republic of Korea, as another key transport 
innovator  and  leader,  e.g.  in  hydrogen  technology,  and  the  Gulf  Cooperation 
Countries  also  need  to  be  prioritised  as  partners  for  the  implementation  of  the 
EU's global transport policies.  

1061.  Considering the global nature of transport operations in many modes, especially 
aviation  and  maritime  transport,  deepening  relationship  with  other  key  global 
partners  can  be  beneficial.  Depending  on  resources  and  future  developments, 
deepened  and  structured  relations  could  also  be  considered  with  Mexico,  India, 
China, Colombia and others.  

and 

and  on 

transport) 

international 

sustainability  of 

1062.  Strengthening ties with countries in Africa is another area were efforts are being 
prioritised. In transport, the building on existing transport cooperation in areas of 
common  concerns  (e.g.  aviation  safety  and  security,  maritime  security,  maritime 
transport 
the 
recommendations  of  the  ‘Africa-Europe  Alliance  Task  Force  on  Transport  and 
Connectivity’  on  aviation,  road  safety  and  sustainable  infrastructure  connectivity, 
which  should  be  now  implemented,  can  be  bilaterally  beneficial.  Integrated 
transport  systems  and  infrastructure  corridors  at  continental  level  are  an  essential 
pre-condition for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The EU can 
share  its  experience  as  regards  the  development  and  implementation  of  a 
continental single market and sustainable transport, including through support for 
sectoral  initiatives  such  as  the  Single  African  Aviation  Transport  Market 
(SAATM). Currently, the EU is negotiating the Post-Cotonou Agreement with the 
African-Caribbean-Pacific  countries  (ACP).  The  EU  –  ACP  negotiations  also 
contain a maritime transport component with the aim of continuing to ensure non-
discriminatory  access  to  international  maritime  transport  markets  vis-à-vis  the 
ACP.  

1063.  In  addition  to  focusing  on  developing  relations  with  new  transport  partners,  in 
light  of  geopolitical,  economic  and  other  developments,  and  in  particular  the 
challenges  faced  by  all  nations  (including  climate  change  or  the  COVID-19 
pandemic),  the  EU  needs  to  strengthen  its  engagement  with  its  global  strategic 
partners, in particular the US, China and Japan. A wide range of issues and topics 
across  all  transport  modes  (safety,  security,  market  access,  technical  standards, 
decarbonisation, digitalisation, connectivity) are covered in the close relations that 
are  forged  with  the  EU’s  major  trading  partners  and  competitors  in  the  global 
market. In addition to existing agreements with the US (e.g. the air transport "Open 
Sky"  agreement)  and  China  (safety  &  maritime  agreements),  efforts  should  be 
continued  to  reinforce  engagement  through  various  sectoral  dialogues  (e.g.  on 
safety and security with the US), enhance exchanges on connectivity policies (e.g. 
within  the  EU-China  Connectivity  Platform609  which  is  looking  at  possible 
synergies between the TEN-T and China’s Belt and Road Initiative with the main 
goal being transparency, reciprocity and a level playing field as we strive towards 
sustainable  and  interoperable  transport  links  between  Asia  and  Europe),  and  re-
invigorate the long-established cross-modal dialogues (e.g. with Japan and China). 
A  Joint  Study  on  Sustainable  Railway-based  corridors  is  to  be  launched  and  co-
financed with China that will evaluate the most sustainable links between Europe 
and  China  in  the  broadest  sense  (economic,  financial,  fiscal,  environmental  and 
the  study,  wide  stakeholder 
social).  Throughout 

implementation  of 

the 

609  https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/international/eu-china-connectivity-platform_en 

239 

 
                                                      
consultations will be conducted with all countries concerned, EU Member States, 
industry  representatives,  civil  society  and  relevant  international  organisations. 
Currently,  EU  –  China  negotiations  on  a  bilateral  investment  agreement  are  on-
going. These negotiations include provisions on maritime transport with the aim to 
align  with  certain  aspects  of  the  existing  bilateral  maritime  transport  relations 
developed under the EU – China Maritime Transport Agreement.  

1064.  Finally,  it  is  of  high  importance  that  the  EU  and  the  UK  to  conclude  an 
agreement  on  the  EU-UK  partnership,  including  transport.  The  ongoing  EU  – 
UK  negotiations  on  a  future  agreement  include  ambitious  transport  components. 
The chapters on air and road transport are key to ensure connectivity after the end 
of the transition period foreseen by the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement. As regards 
maritime transport, EU – UK international markets and trade are currently open. In 
order to ensure that market access is maintained and that there is no discriminatory 
treatment, the EU proposed to include in the agreement a chapter on international 
maritime transport services. The EU also proposed transport-specific rules on level 
playing field in the air and road transport chapters. 

240 

 
 
 
 
5  DESCRIPTION OF THE PATHWAYS/SCENARIOS 

5.1  Scenario design  

1065.  Section  2.2  showed  that  with  existing  policies  (in  the  Baseline  scenario),  a 
declining trend in emissions from transport including intra-EU aviation and intra-
EU  maritime  is  expected  by  2030  and  2050  (18%  reduction  for  2005-2030  and 
40%  for  2005-2050)  but  greater  efforts  are  needed  to  deliver  the  transport 
contribution to the 2030 Climate Target Plan and to the European Green Deal. This 
section  describes  several  stylised  pathways/scenarios  addressing  the  challenges 
identified  in  section  4.  All  scenarios  described  below  close  the  gap  needed  to 
deliver the transport contribution to the 2030 Climate Target Plan and the climate 
neutrality by 2050. 

1066.  The  pathways/scenarios  described  in  this  section  have  been  developed  in  the 
context  of  the  impact  assessment  underpinning  the  2030  Climate  Target  Plan610. 
They  cover  all  sectors  of  the  economy  and  at  the  same  time  include  a  range  of 
transport  policies  that  address  the  challenges  of  sustainable,  smart  and  resilient 
mobility. This  ensures  full consistency between  the analytical  work underpinning 
the 2030 Climate Target Plan and the Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy.  

1067.  This section provides a description of the scenario setup, drawing on the impact 
assessment accompanying the 2030 Climate Target Plan, focusing on the scenarios 
and  variants  most  relevant  for  the  transport  sector.  A  full  description  of  all 
scenarios  and  sectors  concerned 
impact  assessment 
accompanying the 2030 Climate Target Plan.         

is  provided 

the 

in 

1068.  The  PRIMES-GAINS-GLOBIOM  economic  modelling 

toolset  used  for 
assessing  the  scenarios  covers  in  detail  all  sectors  of  the  EU  economy  and  their 
related GHG emissions and CO2 absorptions. Energy and industrial CO2 emissions 
are  assessed  with  the  PRIMES  model,  including  the  PRIMES-TREMOVE  model 
for the transport sector. Non-CO2 emissions (CH4, N2O and F-gases) of the waste, 
energy, agriculture and industry sectors are assessed with the GAINS model. Land 
use emissions and removals are assessed with the GLOBIOM model. See Annex I 
for more detailed information on this modelling suite.  

1069.  The scenarios were constructed around a set of specific policies that either focus 
on carbon pricing (e.g. through inclusion of new sectors in  the ETS) or focus on 
regulatory measures (e.g. CO2 emission standards for vehicles, blending mandates 
for renewable and low carbon fuels in transport, renovation requirements, support 
for  electrification  of  transport  and  heating,  etc.)  or  combine  the  two  types  of 
instruments. Stylised modelling applying these general policy incentives allows to 
discover  where  there  is  emissions  reduction  potential  and  how  policies  interact. 
This approach allows to compare the different sets of policy options, the resulting 
synergies  and  trade-offs  in  a  coherent  framework.  On  the  other  hand,  there  are 
inherent  limitations  in  such  modelling  exercise,  notably  in  terms  of  detailed 
representation  of  specific  policies,  differentiated  impacts  on  economic  actors  as 
well as specific challenges that will be encountered in the implementation of these 
polices. 

610 EC (2020), Impact assessment accompanying the Commission Communication “Stepping up Europe’s 2030 climate ambition  - 
Investing in a climate-neutral future for the benefit of our people”, SWD(2020) 176 final 

241 

 
                                                      
1070.  The following scenarios were developed611:  

  BSL  (Baseline  scenario),  achieving  the  existing  2030  GHG  emissions, 
renewables and energy efficiency EU targets. The baseline scenario covers the 
transport policies adopted up to the end of 2019, as described in section 2.2; 
  REG,  a  regulatory-based  measures  scenario  that  achieves  around  55%  GHG 
reductions.  It  assumes  high  increase  of  the  ambition  of  energy  efficiency, 
renewables  and  transport  policies,  while  keeping  the  EU  ETS  scope 
unchanged612. This scenario thus does not expand carbon pricing613 and relies 
mostly on other policies; 

  CPRICE,  a  carbon-pricing  based  scenario  that  achieves  around  55%  GHG 
reductions.  It  assumes strengthening and further  expanding of carbon pricing, 
be  it  via  EU  ETS  or  other  carbon  pricing  instruments,  to  the  transport  and 
buildings sectors, combined with low intensification of transport policies while 
not intensifying energy efficiency and renewables policies; 

  MIX,  following  a  combined  approach  of  REG  and  CPRICE,  which  achieves 
around  55%  GHG  reductions,  both  expanding  carbon  pricing  and  moderately 
increasing the ambition of policies, but the latter to a lesser extent than in REG; 
  MIX-50,  an  increased  ambition  scenario  achieving  at  least  50%  GHG 
reductions,  similar to  MIX in  that it combines both  expanding carbon pricing 
and  increasing  the  ambition  of  energy  and  transport  policies  but  to  a  more 
limited extent than in MIX; 

  ALLBNK, the most ambitious scenario in GHG emissions reduction, based on 
MIX and further intensifying fuel  mandates  for  aviation  and maritime sectors 
in  a  response  to  the  extended  scope  of  GHG  reductions  covering  all  aviation 
and maritime. 

1071.  In addition, EU-NECP is a variant of BSL, reflecting in a stylised manner and 
to  the  extent  possible  the  aggregate  ambition  expressed  by  Member  State  in  the 
final  National  Energy  and  Climate  Plans.  Furthermore,  COVID-BSL  (COVID-
Baseline) and COVID-MIX are two variants of BSL and MIX, respectively, that 
include  reduced  economic  growth  assumptions  due  to  the  COVID-19  pandemic 
and corresponding reduced activity in various sectors, including transport. COVID-
BSL achieve the same climate and energy targets as BSL by 2030, while COVID-
MIX achieves  a reduction of 55% and is similar to  the MIX scenario in  terms  of 
policy  setup.  COVID-Baseline  has  been  already  discussed  in  section  2.2.  While 
these  two  variants  have  been  developed  to  reflect  circumstances  change  due  to 
COVID-19  pandemic,  the  core  of  analysis  is  performed  on  scenarios  developed 
without  reflecting  the  crisis.  At  the  time  when  analysis  had  to  be  concluded,  too 
large  uncertainties  remained  as  to  future  macro-economic  developments  post 
COVID-19  pandemic  in  order  to  develop  sufficiently  robust  scenarios  for  the 
purpose of this analytical work. 

611 All policy scenarios assume the full inclusion in the emission profile of net emissions from the LULUCF sector. 
612 Except for the intra-EU maritime. 
613 Except for the intra-EU maritime. 

242 

 
 
                                                      
Figure 44: Overview of the policy scenarios 

 
 
 
1072.  The  GHG  emissions  reduction  target  in  CPRICE,  MIX,  MIX-50  and  REG 
scenarios  cover  intra-EU  aviation  and  intra-EU  maritime  emissions.  In  the 
ALLBNK scenario, the  GHG emissions  reduction target  cover both  intra-EU and 
extra-EU aviation and maritime emissions. By comparing the BSL, MIX-50, MIX 
one can assess the impact of 50% and 55% GHG emissions reduction targets. By 
further comparing with the ALLBNK scenario that achieves 55% GHG reduction 
including  all  aviation  and  maritime  emissions  in  the  GHG  target  scope  one  can 
look at the impact of a different scope on this ambition. By comparing BSL, MIX-
50,  REG,  MIX,  CPRICE  and  ALLBNK  one  can  look  into  how  increased  GHG 
ambition relates to renewables and energy efficiency ambition, as well as different 
transport  policies.  By  comparing  REG,  MIX  and  CPRICE  one  can  assess  how 
energy and transport policies can interact with extending or not carbon pricing to 
additional sectors. 

1073.  All  scenarios  include  a  range  of  policies  that  address  the  challenges  of 
sustainable,  smart  and  resilient  mobility  discussed  in  section  4,  or  assume  an 
intensification of such policies relative to the baseline. CPRICE scenario assumes 
strengthening  and  further  expanding  of  carbon  pricing  to  the  road  and  maritime 
transport sectors, be it via EU ETS or other carbon pricing instruments. It includes 
the ReFuelEU aviation and FuelEU maritime initiatives and policy initiatives that 
drive improvements in transport system efficiency and support greater use of more 
sustainable transport modes relative to the BSL scenario: 

−  Incentives for intermodal freight transport; 
−  Initiatives  to  increase  and  better  manage  the  capacity  of  railways,  inland 
waterways and short sea shipping, supported by the TEN-T infrastructure and 
CEF funding;  

−  Gradual internalisation of CO2, air pollution and noise costs (“smart” pricing); 
−  Incentives  to  improve  the  performance  of  air  navigation  service  providers  in 
terms  of  efficiency  and  to  improve  the  utilisation  of  air  traffic  management 
capacity; 

−  Revision of roadworthiness checks legislation; 
−  Implementation of the EURO 7 air pollution standard; 
−  Limitedly  increase  in  ambition  for  CO2  emission  standards  for  vehicles 
(passenger cars, vans, trucks and buses) as of 2030 or 2035, supported by the 
roll-out of recharging and refuelling infrastructure. For cars this corresponds to 
a reduction of around 40% in 2030 compared to the 2021 target.614 

1074.  MIX-50  and  MIX  scenarios  assume  for  road  and  maritime  transport  an 
expansion of  carbon pricing,  renewable and  low  carbon fuels mandate (including 
ReFuelEU  aviation  and  FuelEU  maritime  initiatives),  and  a  set  of  policies  in 
addition  to  those  included  in  the  CPRICE  scenario  that  foster  and  intensify  the 
development  of  public  transport  and  greater  use  of  more  sustainable  transport 

614 The existing legislation sets for newly registered passenger cars, an EU fleet-wide average emission target of 95 gCO2/km from 
2021,  phased  in  from  2020.  For  newly  registered  vans,  the  EU  fleet-wide  average  emission  target  is  147  gCO2  /km  from  2020 
onward. Stricter EU fleet-wide CO2 emission targets, start to apply from 2025 and from 2030. In particular emissions will have to 
reduce by 15% from 2025 for both cars and vans, and by 37.5% and 31% for cars and vans respectively from 2030, as compared to 
2021. From 2025 on, also trucks manufacturers will have to meet CO2 emission targets. In particular, the EU fleet-wide average CO2 
emissions of newly registered trucks will have to reduce by 15% by 2025 and 30% by 2030, compared to the average emissions in 
the reference period (1 July 2019–30 June 2020). For cars, vans and trucks, specific incentive systems are also set to incentivise the 
uptake of zero and low-emission vehicles. 

 
 
 
                                                      
modes  and  multi-modal  solutions  through  a  large  and  well-integrated  range  of 
clean and connected mobility options:  
−  Additional  efforts  to  improve the functioning of the transport system: support 
to  multimodal  mobility  and  intermodal  freight  transport  by  rail,  inland 
waterways and short sea shipping; 

−  Deployment of the necessary infrastructure, smart traffic management systems, 

transport digitalisation and fostering connected and automated mobility; 

−  Further  actions  on  clean  airports  and  ports  to  drive  reductions  in  energy  use, 

CO2 and air pollution emissions; 

−  Additional measures to reduce noise and air pollutants in urban areas; 
−  Pricing  measures  such  as  in  relation  to  energy  taxation  (e.g.  alignment  of 
minima on energy content for diesel and petrol), and infrastructure charging; 

−  Other measures incentivising behavioural change; 
−  Medium  intensification  of  the  CO2  emission  standards  for  cars,  vans,  trucks 
and buses (as of 2030) as compared to CPRICE, supported by large scale roll-
out  of  recharging  and  refuelling  infrastructure.  For  cars  this  corresponds  to  a 
reduction of around 50% in 2030 compared to the 2021 target.  

1075.  REG  scenario  keeps  the  EU  ETS  scope  unchanged,  except  for  the  intra-EU 
maritime.  It  assumes  high  increase  of  the  ambition  of  renewable  and  low  carbon 
fuels mandate (including ReFuelEU aviation and FuelEU maritime initiatives), and 
of  policies  that  drive  transport  system  efficiency  and  digitalisation  in  addition  to 
those in the MIX scenario: 
−  Further  measures  related  to  intelligent  transport  systems,  digitalisation, 
the  TEN-T 

transport  -  supported  by 

connectivity  and  automation  of 
infrastructure; 

−  Additional measures to improve the efficiency of road freight transport; 
−  Incentives for low and zero emissions vehicles in vehicle taxation; 
−  Increasing  the  accepted  load/length  for  road  in  case  of  zero-emission  High 

Capacity Vehicles; 

−  Additional measures in urban areas to address climate change and air pollution; 
−  Pricing  measures  such  as  in  relation  to  energy  taxation  (e.g.  alignment  of 
minima on energy content for diesel and petrol and mirroring the alignment in 
terms of energy content at Member State level); 

−  Higher intensification of the CO2 emission standards for cars, vans, trucks and 
buses (as of 2030) as compared to MIX, leading to lower CO2 emissions and 
fuel  consumption  and  further  incentivising  the  deployment  of  zero-  and  low-
emission  vehicles,  supported  by  the  large  scale  roll-out  of  recharging  and 
refuelling  infrastructure.  For  cars  this  corresponds  to  a  reduction  of  around 
60% in 2030 compared to the 2021 target. 

1076.  ALLBNK scenario builds on MIX scenario and further intensifies fuel mandates 
for  aviation  and  maritime  sectors  in  a  response  to  the  extended  scope  of  GHG 
reductions covering  all aviation and  maritime sectors. All other  transport policies 
of the MIX scenario are also included in ALLBNK. 

1077.  The following section discusses the results of the MIX-50, REG, MIX, CPRICE 
and  ALLBNK  scenarios.  For  the  transport  sector,  the  EU-NECP  variant  includes 
the same policies at EU and MS levels as the BSL and thus their results are very 
similar. For this reason, the results of the EU-NECP variant are not reported in the 

245 

 
section below. The analysis of the COVID-MIX variant is presented at the end and 
discussed in relation to the COVID-BSL. 

5.2  Analysis of impacts of the pathways/scenarios 

5.2.1  Impacts on transport activity 

1078.  Passenger transport activity is projected to continue growing relative to 2015 
(about  18-20%  increase  by  2030  and  32-34%  by  2050)  in  all  policy  scenarios. 
Active  policies  in  place  for  stimulating  change  in  the  transport  system  and 
fostering  greater  use  of  more  sustainable  transport  modes  and  multi-modal 
solutions  through  a  large  and  well-integrated  range  of  clean  and  connected 
mobility  options615,  put  however  a  brake  on  the  expansion  of  passenger  cars 
activity compared to the Baseline.     

1079.  In  CPRICE  scenario,  the  carbon  pricing  and  the  gradual  internalisation  of 
external costs (“smart” pricing) for buses, cars and vans, favour greater use of rail. 
The  MIX  and  REG  scenarios  also  reflect  specific  measures  that  support 
multimodal  mobility  and  investments  in  sustainable,  safe  and  smart  transport, 
measures  that  incentivise  connected  mobility  and  improved  traffic  management 
and measures to support sustainable urban transport. In addition, the REG scenario 
covers additional measures to push digitalisation and automation in transport. Rail 
transport activity is projected to increase the most in the MIX, REG and ALLBNK 
scenarios, by 10-13% in 2030 relative to BSL (13-16% in 2050). This is equivalent 
to  46-49%  growth  over  the  2015-2030  period  (88-93%  growth  for  2015-2050). 
High speed rail activity would double by 2030 and triple by 2050, relative to 2015, 
replacing some short-haul flights. 

1080.  Incentives  for  sustainable  urban  transport  and  the  review  of  energy  taxation 
would  lead  to  higher  impact  on  passenger  cars  in  the  MIX,  REG  and  ALLBNK 
scenarios  relative  to  CPRICE,  resulting  in  0.8-1.8%  decrease  in  cars  activity 
relative  to  the  BSL  in  2030  (around  6%  reduction  in  2050).  At  the  same  time, 
measures  promoting urban policies that curb  pollutant emissions and increase the 
efficiency  of  transport  operations  drive  greater  use  of  collective  transport  modes 
(i.e. buses, but also tram and metro where available) in these scenarios; the activity 
of buses and coaches goes up substantially compared to BSL (8.5-10.8% increase 
in 2030 and up to 16% in 2050). 

1081.  CPRICE and ALLBNK scenarios show higher impacts on intra-EU air transport 
activity,  driven  by  carbon  pricing  and  other  technical  and  operational  measures, 
projecting  a  decline  of  0.7  to  1.1%  by  2030  compared  to  BSL  respectively  (over 
2% reduction in 2050). In general, ALLBNK strengthens the effects of MIX. In the 
less  ambitious  MIX-50  scenario,  intra-EU  air  transport  activity  reduces  by  0.4% 
compared  to  BSL  in  2030  (1.7%  decrease  in  2050).  The  impact  on  extra-EU  air 
transport  is  similar  with  the  highest  impact  projected  in  the  ALLBNK  scenario 
(1.1%  decrease  in  2030  and  1.7%  in  2050  relative  to  BSL).  Compared  to  2015 
however  all  scenarios  project  sustained  growth  for  both  intra  and  extra-EU  air 
transport activity. 

615 Integrating the sharing economy and connected, cooperative and automated mobility in the existing transport set-up is extremely 
important.  At  the  same  time,  it  is important  to  ensure  that the  direction  is  right,  leading  to  emissions  reduction  in transport,  and 
limiting rebound effects. For example, there is a risk that vehicle automation would increase the demand for mobility or willingness 
to spend time in traffic, with adverse environmental effects as a consequence. Hence automation and connectivity need to go hand in 
hand in order to achieve overall system efficiency improvements. 

246 

 
                                                      
1082.  Activity of passenger inland navigation (inland waterways and national maritime 
transport) increases most in MIX, REG and ALLBNK (30-31% for 2015-2030 and 
51% for 2015-2050), supported by policies. 
Figure 45: Passenger transport activity in the Baseline and the policy scenarios 
(cumulative growth rates for 2015-2030 and 2015-2050) 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 
Note: For aviation, domestic and international intra-EU activity is reported, to maintain the comparability with reported statistics. 

1083.  For freight transport activity, greater use of rail, inland waterways  and short 
sea shipping is projected in all scenarios, driven by initiatives to increase and better 
manage  the  capacity  of  railways  and  waterborne  transport,  incentives  for 
intermodal transport and gradual internalisation of external costs (“smart” pricing).     

1084.  Rail  freight  activity  is  projected  to  increase  significantly  in  the  MIX-50,  MIX, 
REG and ALLBNK scenarios relative to the BSL (by 9-13% in 2030 and 11-17% 
in 2050), with the highest increase taking place in REG. This is equivalent to 53-
58%  rise  in  rail  freight  transport  activity  during  2015-2030  and  102-111%  for 
2015-2050. Inland waterways and national maritime transport activity would be 7-
11% higher relative to the BSL in 2030 and 13-15% higher in 2050 (equivalent to 
27-32% growth for 2015-2030 and 53-56% for 2015-2050) in the MIX-50, MIX, 
REG and ALLBNK. These significant impacts are driven by support to multimodal 
mobility  and  intermodal  freight  transport  by  rail,  inland  waterways  and  short  sea 
shipping. The impacts are more limited in the CPRICE scenario that relies more on 
carbon pricing.     

1085.   Road freight activity declines by 1.7 to 3.1% in 2030 relative to the BSL in the 
policy  scenarios  (2.1  to  6.3%  decrease  in  2050).  The  highest  decrease  relative  to 
the BSL is projected in REG, driven by the revision of energy taxation, ambitious 
measures  to  gradually  internalise  the  external  costs  (“smart”  pricing)  and  other 
measures to improve the efficiency of road freight transport, and in the ALLBNK 
scenario.  In  MIX-50,  road  transport  activity  declines  by  2.2%  in  2030  relative  to 
BSL  (4.8%  decrease  in  2050).  Compared  to  2015  however  road  freight  transport 
activity still shows sustained growth over time. 

1086.  International  intra-EU  and  extra-EU  maritime  transport  activity  is  projected  to 
grow  slightly  less  than  in  BSL  (around  22%  for  2015-2030)  despite  some  shifts 
taking place from road to short sea shipping. This is primarily due to lower imports 
and  thus  transport  demand  for  fossil  fuels.  Short  sea  shipping,  covering  national 
and  a part  of  international maritime  transport activity,  would  grow by 23-24% in 
the MIX-50, MIX, REG and ALLBNK scenarios by 2030 relative to 2015 and 46-
49% by 2050.  

247 

 
 
1087.  Overall, inland waterways and short sea shipping activity is projected to growth 
by 23-24% in the MIX-50, MIX, REG and ALLBNK scenarios by 2030 relative to 
2015 and 47-50% by 2050. 

Figure 46: Freight transport activity in the Baseline and the policy scenarios (cumulative 
growth rates for 2015-2030 and 2015-2050) 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 
Note: Excluding international maritime. 

5.2.2  Technology development projections by transport mode 

5.2.2.1  Road transport 

1088.  CO2  emissions  standards  for  vehicles  play  a  key  role  in  emissions  reductions, 
energy consumption and uptake of powertrain technologies. Intensification of their 
stringency  has  an  important  impact  on  the  penetration  of  zero-  and  low-emission 
vehicles  and  on  GHG  emission  reductions  by  2030.  They  are  instrumental  in 
further  reducing  emissions  and  energy  consumption  in  the  period  post-2030 
leading to a faster penetration of zero-emission vehicles. The uptake of renewable 
and low carbon fuels such as biofuels, biomethane and e-fuels (enabled by their use 
in  internal  combustion  engines),  carbon  pricing  and  the  improvements  in  the 
transport  system  efficiency,  enabled  by  digitalisation  and  greater  use  of  more 
sustainable transport modes, also play an important role in reducing road transport 
CO2 emissions. 

1089.  It is  important  to  note  that amongst the three main pollutants of road transport 
(CO2,  noise  and  air  pollutants),  reduction  of  CO2  emissions  imply  air  pollutants 
reductions as well, thus constituting an additional benefit. This is not the case for 
noise, that need specific other technological solutions to be implemented together 
with the CO2 emissions standards. Zero-emission vehicles can still emit the same 
noise levels as traditional combustion engine ones. 

1090.  For  passenger  cars,  the  evolution  of  the  vehicle  stock  by  type  of  drivetrain 
technology in 2030 and 2050 is shown in Figure 47. The share of battery electric 
cars in vehicles stock is projected to go up to 11-14% in the policy scenarios (e.g. 
32 million vehicles in the MIX scenario). The share of low and zero emission cars 
(including battery electric, fuel cells and plug-in hybrids) would increase from 16% 

248 

 
 
 
 
in  2030  in  BSL  to  up  to  20%  in  the  policy  scenarios,  driven  by  the  assumed 
tightening of the vehicle standards supported by the deployment of the recharging 
infrastructure for electric vehicles and refuelling infrastructure for fuel cells616.   

Figure 47: Shares in the total cars stock by type of drivetrain technology in 2030 and 2050 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1091.  These shares will increase rapidly post 2030 thanks to the fleet renewal (vehicle 
standards  apply  to  new  vehicles,  therefore  there  is  a  delay  between  their 
introduction  and  the  powertrain  changes  in  the  stock  of  vehicles),  driving  down 
GHG  emissions  from  road  transport  even  more  steeply  than  in  the  period  up  to 
2030. For example, in the REG scenario the share of zero and low emissions cars 
(ZLEV) is projected at 47% by 2035, out of which 33% zero emission cars (ZEV). 
In the CPRICE scenario the shares of ZLEV and ZEV by 2035 would be 33% and 
23%, respectively. This compares with 27% ZLEV and 17% ZEV projected in the 
baseline.  This  shows  that  the  impact  of  CO2  emissions  standards  set  for  2030 
would be very significant, albeit with a time delay.  

1092.  By 2050, almost all cars (between 88-99% of the vehicle stock) need to be low 
or  zero  emission  in  order  for  the  climate  neutrality  target  to  be  attainable.  Large 
scale  deployment  of  recharging  infrastructure  for  electric  vehicles  and  refuelling 
infrastructure for fuel cells would be needed to support these developments, as well 
as sustainable batteries. In the REG scenario, ZEV are projected to represent 99% 
of  the  fleet,  due  to  strong  vehicle  efficiency  policies.  On  the  other  hand,  with 
existing policies and targets, as in BSL, ZLEV  are projected to reach 54% of the 
stock  in  2050,  but  fossil  ICEs  remain  common  in  the  fleet.  This  shows  that 
intensification of the existing CO2 emission standards is necessary. 

1093.  For  vans,  the  penetration  of  zero  emission  vehicles  in  the  fleet  in  2030  is 
projected to go up from 7% in BSL to up to 8% in the policy scenarios, while the 
share  of  ZLEV  would  increase  from  11%  in  BSL  to  up  to  14%  in  the  policy 
scenarios. Similarly to cars, these developments would need to be driven by tighter 
vehicle  efficiency  standards  supported  by  the  deployment  of  recharging  and 
refuelling infrastructure, as well as sustainable batteries. In the long run, the share 
of  ZLEV  would  range  from  87%  in CPRICE  to  97%  in  REG,  while  ZEV  would 
represent between 75%  and 93% in the same scenarios. Similar considerations as 
for the cars segment applies to the vans, including the need to intensify the existing 

616  The  impacts  of  promotion  and  industrial  deployment  of  proof  clean  technologies,  the  reorganisation,  streamlining  and 
modernisation of supply chains and production capacity are not specifically quantified here.  

249 

 
 
                                                      
CO2  emission  standards.  The  evolution  of  vehicle  stock  by  type  of  drivetrain 
technology in 2030 and 2050 is shown in Figure 48. 

Figure 48: Shares in the total vans stock by type of drivetrain technology in 2030 and 2050 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1094.  In  the  heavy  goods  vehicle  segment,  as  shown  in  Figure  49,  hybrids  are 
projected to represent around 16% of the stock in 2030 in BSL while ICE running 
on gaseous fuels (LPG and LNG) around 6% of the stock. In the policy scenarios, 
tighter vehicle standards would result  in  an increase to 8-9% of  gas-fuelled  ICEs 
by  2030,  as  well  as  a  possible  penetration  of  around  1%  zero  emission  vehicles 
(e.g.  over  80,000  zero-emission  heavy  goods  vehicles  in  operation  in  the  MIX 
scenario). Again, due to the slow turnover of the vehicle stock, the CO2 standards 
for new vehicles in 2030 would take time to show impacts in terms of changes in 
the structure of the fleet. By 2050 the structure of the fleet changes significantly, 
with  the  share  of  fuel  cell  trucks  representing  between  23%  in  CPRICE  and  26-
27%  in  REG,  MIX  (and  MIX-50)  and  ALLBNK.  The  share  of  electric  trucks 
would  go  up  by  2050  from  only  1%  in  BSL  to  14-20%  in  CPRICE  and  REG 
respectively. Conventional, mild hybrid and gaseous ICEs make up the rest of the 
fleet  in  2050,  requiring  low  and  zero-carbon  fuels  to  reach  climate  neutrality. 
Sustainable batteries are essential to achieving this objective. 

Figure 49: Shares in the total heavy goods vehicle stock by type of drivetrain technology in 
2030 and 2050 

250 

 
 
 
Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1095.  For buses, the uptake of zero emission vehicles in the fleet in 2030 is projected 
to go up from 8% in BSL to 17-22% in the policy scenarios, due to the assumed 
extension of the CO2 emission standards to this vehicle segment supported by the 
deployment  of  recharging  infrastructure.  The  highest  uptake  is  projected  in  the 
REG  scenario.  By  2050,  92  to  98%  of  the  fleet  would  be  electric  in  the  policy 
scenarios. The evolution of vehicle stock by type of drivetrain technology in 2030 
and  2050  is  shown  in  Figure  50.  While  buses  are  mostly  used  in  the  urban 
environment  where  electrification  is  a  viable  option,  coaches  travel  longer 
distances and face similar limitations to those faced by heavy goods vehicles. For 
coaches,  the  outcome  is  more  similar  to  that  for  heavy  goods  vehicles,  although 
fuel cells gain more significant market shares.  

Figure 50: Shares in the buses vehicle stock by type of drivetrain technology in 2030 and 
2050 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1096.  Overall  for  the  road  transport  sector,  renewable  and  low  carbon  fuels  are 
projected to represent 10-11% of the fuel mix by 2030 and 94 to 98% by 2050. In 
the long run (by 2050), electricity would represent 30 to 42% of the energy use in 
road  transport,  while  hydrogen  would  provide  an  additional  31  to  40%.  Biofuels 
and biomethane are projected to contribute a lower share (6 to 15%), while e-fuels 
would represent 10 to 17% of the energy mix. The highest uptake of electricity and 
hydrogen would take place in the REG scenario (42 and 40%, respectively) driven 
by  the  stringent  CO2  standards  for  vehicles,  accompanied  by  the  large  scale 
deployment of recharging and refuelling infrastructure.     

5.2.2.2  Rail 

1097.  For rail, all scenarios show electrification as the main option. In BSL scenario, 
around 89% of the rolling stock used for passenger rail is projected to be electric 
by 2050, and 79% for freight rail. This requires significant efforts, supported by the 
assumed completion of the core TEN-T network by 2030 and of the comprehensive 
TEN-T  network  by  2050.  In  the  policy  scenarios,  by  2050  electric  rolling  stock 
would represent around 94-95% for passenger rail and 88-89% for freight rail; rail 
infrastructure  would  need  to  be  largely  electrified  by  2050  to  support  such 
significant  changes.  Hydrogen  powertrains  would  additionally  contribute  around 
1% of the rolling stock used for passenger rail and around 2% for freight rail in the 

251 

 
 
 
REG, MIX (and MIX-50) and ALLBNK. This is a viable option  for  rail sections 
that are difficult to electrify. 

5.2.2.3  Aviation 

1098.  Currently,  air  transport  relies  entirely  on  petroleum  products.  The  contribution 
of liquid biofuels is marginal, at less than 0.1% of air transport energy use. In the 
Baseline  scenario,  liquid  biofuels  (i.e.  bio-kerosene)  are  projected  to  represent 
around  0.2%  of  the  energy  demand  in  air  transport  by  2030  and  close  to  3%  by 
2050.  

Figure 51: Aviation fuels mix in the Baseline and policy scenarios in 2030 and 2050 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1099.  Liquid  biofuels  and  e-liquids  represent  the  main  alternatives  for  reducing  the 
carbon intensity of air transport fuels, with the required energy density to provide 
for longer distance flights. In the policy scenarios, driven by fuel policies including 
ReFuelEU  aviation  initiative,  renewable  and  low  carbon  fuels  are  projected  to 
represent 3 to 8% of the energy use in 2030 and 63 to 68% in 2050. The highest 
uptake in 2030 is projected in REG and ALLBNK scenarios and the lowest in the 
MIX-50,  with  MIX  scenario  falling  in  between  at  5%.  The  largest  part  of 
renewable  and  low  carbon  fuels  by  2030  would  be  provided  by  liquid  biofuels, 
with  e-fuels  representing  between  0.7%  and  2%  of  the  energy  use.  E-fuels  are 
however projected to contribute a more significant share by 2050, providing up to 
35%  of  the  energy  use  in  air  transport.  Despite  the  significant  uptake  of  liquid 
biofuels  and  e-liquids  in  the  policy  scenarios,  32  to  37%  of  the  aviation  fuels 
would still remain fossil fuel based by 2050. 

1100.  Electric  aircraft only materialise  in very small  numbers in  the policy  scenarios 
by 2050. However, there are some developments on full electrification of aviation 
ongoing, while Airbus, Rolls-Royce and Siemens are developing a hybrid-electric 
demonstration aircraft. Hybridisation can significantly increase aircraft efficiency, 
for  example  by  modifying  the  aircraft  design  to  reduce  the  overall  weight,  thus 
reducing fuel consumption. 

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5.2.2.4  Inland waterways and national maritime 

1101.  Inland  waterways  and national maritime  are represented  together in modelling. 
This  is  due  to  the  fact  that  a  split  of  energy  statistics  between  the  two  is  not 
currently  available.  In  the  Baseline  scenario,  a  large  share  of  the  vessels  fleet 
(88%)  is  projected  to  be  powered  by  liquid  fuels  by  2050.  LNG  vessels  would 
represent  around  12%  of  the  fleet  by  2050,  driven  by  CEF  funding  and  the 
assumed availability  of  LNG refuelling infrastructure, plus the Sulphur Directive, 
regulating air pollution deriving from sulphur content in marine fuels, that is also 
relevant for national maritime. 

1102.  In  the  policy  scenarios,  energy  efficiency  improvements  would  provide  a 
significant  contribution  in  decreasing  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  Energy  intensity 
would  go  down  by  36-38%  during  2005-2030  (45-49%  decrease  for  2005-2050). 
The  highest  improvements  are  projected  in  the  REG  scenario,  driven  by  a 
combination  of  carbon  pricing,  technical  and  operational  measures  (e.g.  engine 
optimisation,  hull  design,  speed  optimisation,  capacity  utilisation,  voyage 
optimisation, etc.) and higher electrification of the fleet.     

Figure 52: Inland waterways and national maritime fuels mix in the Baseline and policy 
scenarios in 2030 and 2050 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1103.  Electric vessels would represent 11 to 18% of the vessels fleet in 2050 with the 
highest share in the REG scenario and the lowest in CPRICE scenario while fuel 
cell vessels are projected at around 6% of the fleet. Propulsion systems powered by 
liquid fuels would maintain a dominant role by 2050 (between 59% in REG to 67% 
in CPRICE), followed by those powered by gaseous fuels (15-16%). However, the 
carbon  intensity  of  both  liquid  and  gaseous  fuels  would  decrease  significantly 
relative to the Baseline. 

1104.  Renewable  and  low carbon  fuels  would  represent 8 to 13% of  the  fuel mix by 
2030  and  85-90%  by  2050,  driven  by  fuel  policies  including  FuelEU  maritime 
initiative  and  supported  by  the  deployment  of  refuelling  infrastructure.  While 
liquid  biofuels  provide  the  largest  share  by  2030,  by  2050  e-liquids  would 
represent 37 to 42% of the energy use in inland waterways and national maritime, 
followed by liquid biofuels (30-38%) and decarbonised gases (9-10%). Electricity 
and hydrogen contribute together 9 to 13% of the fuel mix by 2050.  

253 

 
 
5.2.2.5  International maritime transport 

1105.  In  the  Baseline  scenario,  international  maritime  transport  is  projected  to  be 
dominated  by  the  use  of  fossil  fuels.  Natural  gas  would  provide  around  17%  of 
energy demand by 2050 driven by the SOx and NOx requirements of Annex VI to 
the MARPOL Convention of the IMO (as well as by the Sulphur Directive in the 
EU,  transposing  IMO  rules  and  promoting  as  well  other  low  sulphur  sustainable 
alternative fuels) and the assumed availability of refuelling infrastructure for LNG. 
Heavy fuel oil and marine diesel oil would provide the rest of the fuel use. 

1106.  In the policy  scenarios,  renewable  and low carbon fuels  are  projected at 5.5  to 
13.5% of the fuel mix by 2030, with 5.5% in the less ambitious MIX-50 scenario, 
7.5% in the MIX and 13.5% in ALLBNK that assumes an extended scope of GHG 
reductions covering  all  aviation and  maritime.  By  2050 they would represent 86-
88% of the energy use in international maritime. The uptake of renewable and low 
carbon  fuels  is  driven  by  fuel  policies  including  FuelEU  maritime  initiative  and 
supported by the deployment of refuelling infrastructure.      

Figure 53: International maritime fuels mix in the Baseline and policy scenarios in 2030 
and 2050 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1107.  Liquid biofuels would represent 39-40% of the fuel mix by 2050, while e-liquids 
would  contribution  up  to  20%.  Low  carbon  gases  (bio-LNG  and  e-gas)  are 
projected to represent 20 to 22% of the fuel mix and hydrogen another 7-8%. 
1108.  The  share  of  marine  diesel  oil  and  heavy  fuel  oil  is  projected  to  reduce 
significantly over time. As a result, the CO2 intensity (expressed in tons of CO2 per 
tonne-kilometre) is projected to go down between 13% in the less ambitious MIX-
50 scenario (15% in the MIX) and 21% in ALLBNK by 2030 relative to 2015. By 
2050, CO2 intensity is projected to decrease by 89-91%. 

1109.  Energy  efficiency,  measured  as  tons  of  oil  equivalent  per  million  tonnes-
kilometres,  is  projected  to  provide  significant  contribution  to  the  achievement  of 
emissions  reductions  in  all  policy  scenarios  (15-18%  improvements  over  2015-
2050,  equivalent  to  42-43%  improvements  over  2005-2050)  driven  by  a 
combination of carbon pricing, technical and operational measures.  

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5.2.3  Energy demand and fuel mix projections 

1110.  Total energy use in transport (including international aviation and maritime) is 
projected  to  decrease  in  all  scenarios  and  this  in  the  context  of  growing  activity 
thus  showing  progress  in  terms  of  energy  efficiency:  by  3%  in  the  Baseline 
scenario  during  2015-2030  and  4-6%  in  the  policy  scenarios  (13%  reduction  by 
2050  in  the  Baseline  and  35-40%  in  the  policy  scenarios).  Final  energy 
consumption  (excluding  international  aviation  and  maritime)  would  reduce  at 
faster  pace:  by  31%  between  2015  and  2030  in  the  Baseline  and  32-33%  in  the 
policy  scenarios  (45%  by  2050  in  the  Baseline  and  64-70%  in  the  policy 
scenarios).  

Figure 54: Change in total energy use in transport617 and in the final energy 
consumption618 in 2030 and 2050 compared to 2015 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1111.  The  higher  energy  savings  in  terms  of  final  energy  demand  are  due  to  road 
transport and are driven by the assumed tightening of the vehicle standards, carbon 
pricing and policies that improve the functioning of the transport system and lead 
to  greater  use  of  sustainable  transport  modes,  enabled  by  digitalisation  and 
supported  by  the  TEN-T  infrastructure.  Road  transport  currently  represents  over 
70% of the total energy use in transport and over 90% of the final energy demand. 
Its share in total energy use is however projected to remain significant by 2050 in 
all  scenarios  (above  45%)  despite  the  significant  energy  savings  that  would  be 
achieved by the sector.  

1112.  REG  achieves  the  highest  savings  relative  to  the  Baseline  in  terms  of  total 
energy use and final energy consumption, due to higher intensification of vehicle 
standards  assumed  in  this  scenario  relative  to  MIX,  further  measures  related  to 
intelligent  transport  systems,  digitalisation,  connectivity  and  automation  of 
transport, incentives for  sustainable urban transport,  pricing measures and energy 
taxation but also greater use of sustainable transport modes. By 2050, around 70% 
of  the  total  energy  savings  relative  to  the  Baseline  are  projected  to  take  place  in 
passenger transport.  

1113.  Alternative fuels619 including renewable and low carbon fuels are projected to 
increase  in  all  policy  scenarios  relative  to  the  Baseline.  In  CPRICE  scenario  the 

617 Including international aviation and maritime.  
618 According to Eurostat methodology, final energy consumption in transport excludes international aviation and maritime. 

255 

 
 
                                                      
share of alternative fuels would go up to 13.5% by 2030, driven by carbon pricing 
and  policy  measures  towards  reducing  emissions  in  aviation  and  maritime. 
Biofuels and biomethane would represent 6.4% in CPRICE by 2030. The share of 
biofuels  and  biomethane  increases  further  in  MIX  and  REG  scenarios  by  2030 
(6.6% and 6.9% of transport energy demand, respectively) thanks to dedicated fuel 
policies,  including  for  aviation  and  maritime.  Overall,  total  alternative  fuels  are 
projected at around 14% of the transport fuel mix in MIX and  15.1% in  REG by 
2030620.  E-fuels  would  represent  around  0.2%  of  the  transport  energy  demand  in 
CPRICE  and  MIX  and  0.4%  in  REG,  driven  by  fuel  obligations  for  aviation  and 
maritime. The share of alternative fuels would go up to 15.5% in ALLBNK, driven 
by higher ambition policies focussed in particular on aviation and maritime fuels in 
this scenario, and higher carbon pricing. The share of e-fuels would also be slightly 
higher at  around 0.6% by  2030 in  ALLBNK.  In MIX-50, the share of alternative 
fuels is projected to be lower at around 13.2%. 

Figure 55: Share of alternative fuels in transport (including international aviation and 
maritime) in 2030 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 
1114.  The  share  of  renewable  energy  in  transport621  is  projected  to  significantly 
increase  by  2030  driven  by  the  assumed  fuel  policies  leading  to  the  uptake  of 
advanced biofuels and electric vehicles. The share of renewables would reach 20% 
in MIX-50 and between 22% in CPRICE to 26% in REG and ALLBNK. The MIX 
scenario falls between CPRICE and REG and projects a share of renewable energy 
in transport of 24% by 2030. 

619  According  to  the  Directive  2014/94/EU,  ‘alternative  fuels’  refer  to  fuels  or  power  sources  which  serve,  at  least  partly,  as  a 
substitute for fossil oil sources in the energy supply to transport and which have the potential to contribute to its decarbonisation and 
enhance  the  environmental  performance  of  the  transport  sector.  They  include,  inter  alia:  electricity,  hydrogen,  biofuels,  synthetic 
and  paraffinic  fuels,  natural  gas,  including  biomethane,  in  gaseous  form  (compressed  natural  gas  (CNG))  and  liquefied  form 
(liquefied natural gas (LNG)), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). 
620 Not accounting for multipliers.  
621 According to Articles 25-27 of Directive 2018/2001/EC (revised RED) where specific caps and multipliers apply for different 
renewable fuels. 

256 

 
 
                                                                                                                                                            
Figure 56: Share of renewable energy in transport in 2030 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1115.  By  2050,  the  large  majority  of  fossil  fuels  is  projected  to  be  replaced  by 
renewable  and  low  carbon  fuels  in  all  policy  scenarios,  in  order  to  reach  climate 
neutrality.  Fossil  fuels  would  only  represent  13-14%  of  the  fuel  mix,  with  oil 
products being primarily used in sectors such as aviation and maritime. Electricity 
use is projected at 19-23% of the total energy use in transport, mainly driven by the 
electrification of road transport, while hydrogen would provide around 18-20% of 
the fuel mix. Liquid biofuels and biomethane would contribute 24-27% of the total 
energy use in transport and e-fuels an additional 21-23%. The projected evolution 
of total energy use in transport by fuel type is provided in Figure 57. 

Figure 57: Transport fuel mix (including international aviation and maritime) 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

5.2.4  GHG emissions from transport 

1116.  Total  tank  to  wheel  CO2  emissions  from  transport  (excluding  international 
maritime)622  are  projected  to  decline  by  10%  in  Baseline  by  2030  compared  to 

622  Emissions  from  transport  are  reported  on  a  tank  to  wheel  basis,  in  line  with  the  Impact  assessment  accompanying  the 
Commission Communication “Stepping up Europe’s 2030 climate ambition - Investing in a climate-neutral future for the benefit of 

257 

 
 
 
                                                      
 
2015 (14% reduction relative to 2005). In the policy scenarios they would reduce 
between 13% (in CPRICE and MIX-50) to 16% (in REG and ALLBNK) compared 
to 2015. This is equivalent to 16% to 19% decrease relative to 2005. As shown in 
Figure  58,  the  largest  contribution  to  this  decline  is  due  to  the  increased  fuel 
efficiency  of  cars,  as  well  as  vans.  Intensification  of  the  CO2  emission  standards 
for vehicles in 2030 has a very important impact already for emission reduction by 
2030,  while  also  bringing  significant  co-benefits  for  air  pollutant  emissions.  This 
will  be  instrumental  to  further  reduce  emissions  and  energy  consumption  in  the 
period post-2030, when the effects will be stronger as a result of the fleet renewal. 
Greater  use  more  sustainable  transport  modes  would  also  provide  a  significant 
contribution. 

Figure 58: Tank to wheel CO2 emissions from transport (excluding international 
maritime) in 2030 in the Baseline and policy scenarios 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1117.  CO2 emissions from passenger transport would decline by 13% in the Baseline 
scenario  by  2030  compared  to  2015,  and  between  15%  in  CPRICE  and  18%  in 
REG and ALLBNK scenarios. Vehicle efficiency standards for passenger cars that 
drive  the  increased  use  of  electric  vehicles,  together  with  carbon  pricing, 
infrastructure charging and taxation, as well as measures that support multimodal 
mobility, enabled by digitalisation, and support for sustainable urban transport all 
contribute towards the emissions reductions in passenger transport. CO2 emissions 
from  freight  transport  are  projected  to  go  down  by  3%  in  the  Baseline  by  2030 
compared  to  2015,  and  decline  between  8%  in  CPRICE,  MIX,  REG  and  9%  in 
ALLBNK,  driven  by  vehicle  efficiency  standards  and  initiatives  to  increase  and 
better  manage  the  capacity  of  railways  and  waterborne  transport,  incentives  for 
intermodal transport and gradual internalisation of external costs (“smart” pricing). 
In  MIX-50,  by  2030,  CO2  emissions  from  passenger  transport  would  decline  by 
14%,  whereas CO2 emissions  from  freight  transport would go down by 7%, both 
compared to 2015.  

1118.  Aviation has been one of the fastest growing sectors in terms of CO2 emissions 
over the past decades. Total CO2 emissions from flights departing from the EU-27 
and  domestic  flights  within  the  territory  of  a  Member  State  of  the  EU-27  grew 

our  people”.  It  should be  noted that the  modelling  assigns  tank to  wheel  emissions  of  zero  to  biofuels,  electricity  and  e-fuels,  to 
avoid  double  counting.  These  emissions  are  accounted  in  other  sectors  and  reported  in  the  Impact  assessment  accompanying  the 
Commission Communication “Stepping up Europe’s 2030 climate ambition - Investing in a climate-neutral future for the benefit of 
our people”. Emissions from transport on a well to wheel basis are reported below.  

258 

 
 
                                                                                                                                                            
from around 112 million tonnes (Mt) in 2005 to 120 Mt in 2015, equal to a 7.6% 
increase.  For  the  future,  significant  further  growth  is  projected:  25%  by  2030 
relative to 2015 in the Baseline scenario, equivalent to 34% growth over the 2005-
2030 period. The decline in cars and vans emissions over the 2015-2030 horizon is 
however  projected  to  overcompensate  the  increase  in  aviation  emissions.  In  the 
policy  scenarios,  CO2  emissions  reductions  between  5  Mt  (MIX-50)  and  14  Mt 
(ALLBNK)  are projected for air transport in  2030 relative to  the  Baseline due to 
fuel  policies,  carbon  pricing,  and  other  technical  and  operational  measures, 
including  action  on  clean  airports.  The  decrease  in  CO2  emissions  relative  to  the 
Baseline is much higher in 2050, between 99 Mt (MIX-50, REG, MIX, ALLBNK) 
and 106 Mt (CPRICE), driven by the large penetration of biofuels and e-fuels and 
carbon pricing. Nevertheless, lower emissions reductions are projected in aviation 
relative to road transport sector, where more technological options are available.  

1119.  By  2050,  CO2  emissions  from  transport  (excluding  international  maritime)  are 
projected to go down by over 90% compared to 2015 (90-91% reduction relative to 
1990)  in  order  to  meet  the  climate  neutrality  targets.  This  implies  a  very  rapid 
decline  in  emissions  post-2030.  The  emissions  reduction  profile  is  strongly 
impacted by the type of policy combinations developed for 2030. The size of these 
reductions are consistent with the impact of stringent vehicle standards, as well as 
of  renewable  fuels  and  policies  driving  improvements  in  the  efficiency  of  the 
transport system and greater use of more sustainable transport modes, making full 
use  of  the  benefits  of  transport  digitalisation  and  connected,  cooperative  and 
automated mobility. 

1120.  The emissions from  international  maritime sector are projected to  go up  in  the 
Baseline,  by  18%  by  2030  relative  to  2015,  as  explained  in  section  2.2.  In  the 
policy scenarios they would reduce by 13-19% relative to the Baseline in 2030 (12-
13%  decrease  in  REG,  MIX,  CPRICE  and  19%  in  ALLBNK),  driven  by  carbon 
pricing,  fuel  policies  and  other  technical  and  operational  measures.  Relative  to 
2015, emissions from international maritime would however still be 3-4% higher in 
the REG, MIX and CPRICE scenarios and 4% lower in ALLBNK by 2030. Steep 
emissions  reductions  are projected post-2030 in  all scenarios, driven by the large 
scale  uptake  of  renewable  and  low  carbon  fuels,  in  order  to  reach  climate 
neutrality. By 2050, emissions from international maritime would be 84-86% lower 
relative to 2015, equivalent to 80-82% reduction compared to 1990.  

1121.  Transport emissions including intra-EU aviation and intra-EU maritime are 
projected to decline by 13% in Baseline by 2030 compared to 2015 (18% reduction 
relative  to  2005).  In  the  policy  scenarios  they  would  reduce  between  16%  (in 
CPRICE and MIX) to 18% (in REG and ALLBNK) by 2030 relative to 2015, with 
MIX-50  showing  15%  decrease.  This  is  equivalent  to  20%  to  23%  emissions 
reductions  relative  to  2005,  with  the  highest  decrease  projected  in  REG  and 
ALLBNK.  By  2050,  the  policy  scenarios  show  95-96%  emissions  reductions 
relative to 2015. 

1122.  On well to wheel basis623, CO2 emissions (excluding international maritime) go 
down  by  10%  in  the  Baseline  scenario  by  2030  and  by  32%  by  2050  relative  to 
2015. In the policy scenarios, higher emissions reductions are projected (13 to 16% 
reduction  by  2030  and  over  90%  reduction  by  2050)  due  to  the  reduction  in  the 
energy  use  in  transport  and  higher  uptake  of  renewables  and  low  carbon  fuels 

623  Only  EU  emissions  for  the  domestic  production  are  covered  by  the  quantified  well  to  wheel  emissions.  Worldwide  upstream 
emissions related to the sourcing of fossil fuels are not reflected in this modelling exercise. For biofuels, well to wheel CO2 emission 
factors reflect the energy use in the production process. Indirect land-use change (ILUC) emissions are not included. 

259 

 
                                                      
driven by policies, but also due to the power generation sector that is set to achieve 
decarbonisation by 2050. The power generation mix plays an important role in this 
time perspective considering the large scale electrification of transport.  

Figure 59: Well to wheel CO2 emissions from transport (excluding international maritime) 
in 2030 and 2050 in the Baseline and policy scenarios 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 
1123.  The well to wake emissions from international maritime sector624 are projected 
to reduce by 8-10% relative to the Baseline (10% decrease in MIX, CPRICE and 
ALLBNK) in 2030, driven by carbon pricing, fuel policies and other technical and 
operational  measures.  Relative  to  2015,  emissions  from  international  maritime 
would  however  still  be  5-8%  higher  by  2030.  Steep  emissions  reductions  are 
projected post-2030 in all scenarios, driven by the large scale uptake of renewable 
and  low  carbon  fuels  and  the  decarbonisation  of  the  power  generation  mix.  By 
2050,  emissions  from  international  maritime  on  the  well  to  wake  basis  would  be 
70-72% lower relative to 2015. 

5.2.5  Impacts on noise, NOx and particulate matter emissions 

1124.  Transport  related  activities  have  significant  impacts  on  air,  water  and  land 
pollution  and  noise  levels.  All  policy  scenarios  show  co-benefits  on  the 
environment focusing on air pollution.  

1125.  NOx  emissions  (excluding  international  shipping)  are  projected  to  decrease  in 
all  policy  scenarios,  by  54-55%  by  2030  relative  to  2015.  The  highest  NOx 
emissions reductions by 2030 would take place in REG and ALLBUNK, driven by 
the uptake of zero and low emissions vehicles, policies that lead to greater use of 
sustainable  transport  modes,  and  incentives  for  sustainable  urban  transport.  The 
reduction in NOx emissions would be more significant by 2050 (84-85% decrease 
relative  to  2015)  due  to  the  large  scale  uptake  of  zero  emission  vehicles.  The 
decline in  particulate matter  (PM2.5) would be less pronounced by 2030 at  50-
52% but PM2.5 emissions would go down by around 88-89% by 2050. The highest 
emissions  reductions  are  achieved  again  in  the  REG  scenario  due  to  the  large 
uptake of zero emission vehicles.  

624  Only  EU  emissions  for  the  domestic  production  are  covered  by  the  quantified  well  to  wheel  emissions.  Worldwide  upstream 
emissions related to the sourcing of fossil fuels are not reflected in this modelling exercise. For biofuels, well to wheel CO2 emission 
factors reflect the energy use in the production process. Indirect land-use change (ILUC) emissions are not included. 

260 

 
 
                                                      
Figure 60: Change in NOx emissions and PM2.5 emissions in 2030 and 2050 compared to 
2015 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1126.  Noise  in  the  majority  of  the  real  situations  depends,  for  road  vehicles,  on  the 
tyres  and  road  surface,  for  railway  on  the  quality  of  wheels  and  rails,  and  for 
aircrafts  on  the  engines  and  aircraft  frame.  Electric  vehicles  are  sometimes 
associated  with  ‘no  noise’  pollution  which  is  however  not  the  case.  As  a  result, 
very little benefits are foreseen by a renewal of the fleet or changes in traffic. By 
2030  an  increase  of  noise  is  foreseen  for  all  modes  relative  to  2015  due  to  the 
increase  of  the  number  of  vehicles.  By  2050  the  increased  number  of  electric 
vehicles could lead, for road only, to a limited benefit in terms of noise reduction. 
The impacts are limited unless other specific measures are adopted that benefit the 
fleet  renewal  and  at  the  same  time  target  noise,  as  well  as  CO2  and  air  pollutant 
emissions reductions. 

5.2.6  Impacts on external costs of transport  
1127.  External  costs  associated  to  air  pollutants625  would  decrease  in  all  policy 
scenarios,  by  about  61-63%  by  2030  (93-94%  reduction  by  2050)  compared  to 
2015  due  to  lower  energy  use  in  transport,  driven  by  improvements  in  energy 
efficiency,  and  increased  use  of  renewable  and  low  carbon  fuels,  as  well  as 
sustainable batteries. REG scenario shows the highest reduction (63% by 2030 and 
94% by 2050), while MIX also shows significant decrease (62% by 2030 and 93% 
by 2050). The estimation of external costs associated to air pollutants draws on the 
methodology  of  the  2019  Handbook  on  the  external  costs  of  transport626.  The 
impacts on health, crop losses, material and building damage and biodiversity loss 
(due  to  acidification  of  soil  and  to  the  eutrophication  of  ecosystems)  are  also 
included. Soil and water pollution due to  heavy  metals,  organic toxic substances, 
waste and ballast water and oil spills is however not covered. 

Figure 61: Change in external costs of air pollution in 2030 and 2050 compared to 2015 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1128.  All policy scenarios are projected to result in somewhat lower congestion costs 
relative to the Baseline scenario. This is due to measures related to “smart pricing” 

625 Including NOx, PM2.5 and SOx emissions; excluding international maritime transport.  
626 Source : https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9781f65f-8448-11ea-bf12-01aa75ed71a1 

261 

 
 
 
                                                      
and  multimodal  mobility,  enabled  by  digitalisation.  The  impacts  are  more  visible 
by  2050  despite  the  fact  that  the  measures  are  assumed  to  be  implemented  post-
2020.  MIX,  REG  and  ALLBNK  show  similar  reductions  in  congestion  costs 
relative to the Baseline scenario by 2050, while CPRICE (mainly driven by carbon 
pricing) shows more limited impact.     

Figure 62: Change in external costs of congestion and accidents in 2030 and 2050 
compared to 2015 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1129.  Policies  promoting  greater  use  of  more  sustainable  transport  modes  and 
multimodality as well as the large scale deployment of intelligent transport systems 
are projected to  result in  significant  co-benefits  in  terms  of improved road safety 
and reduction of fatalities and injuries. For 2015-2030, the policy scenarios result 
in a decrease of external costs of accidents by 15 to 17%. The highest impacts are 
projected  in  the  REG,  MIX  and  ALLBNK  scenarios.  By  2050  external  costs  of 
accidents would go down by 21 to 27% relative to 2015.  

1130.  Additional welfare effects in the transport sector result particularly from greater 
use  of  active  modes  such  as  walking  and  cycling,  and  public  transport  or  a 
combination  of  these  options.  The  most  significant  co-benefits  of  greater  use  of 
active modes of transport arise from increased physical activity and leads to lower 
levels of non-communicable diseases (such as overweight/obesity), various mental 
diseases  and  pre-mature  mortality.  Associated  co-benefits  would  include  reduced 
congestion, noise and air pollution.627 In addition to health benefits, there are social 
and economic gains of active mobility. 

5.2.7  Investments 

1131.  The average annual investments in vehicles, rolling stock, vessels, airplanes and 
alternative fuels infrastructure deployment are estimated at around EUR 492 billion 
during the 2011-2020 period628. Under existing policies (in the baseline scenario), 

627 COMBI-Project (2015). Literature review on social welfare impacts of energy efficiency improvement actions, Deliverable 5.1, 
available at: http://combi-project.eu. The project receives funding from the EU's Horizon 2020 programme (No 649724). 
628 EC (2020), Impact assessment accompanying the Commission Communication “Stepping up Europe’s 2030 climate ambition  - 
Investing in a climate-neutral future for the benefit of our people”, SWD(2020) 176 final. For transport the projections represent the 
entire cost of transport fleet purchased and alternative fuels infrastructure deployed unlike for other sectors, notably buildings where 
only energy-related costs are projected.  

262 

 
 
                                                      
these investments are projected to go up to EUR 611 billion per year during 2021-
2030 and to EUR 697 billion per year during 2031-2050629.  

Figure 63: Average annual investments in vehicles, rolling stock, vessels, airplanes and 
alternative fuels infrastructure deployment in the Baseline and policy scenarios 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1132.  Focusing  on  2021-2030  period,  reducing  GHG  emissions  from  transport,  to 
contribute  towards  the  at  least  55%  economy-wide  emission  reduction  target  by 
2030, will require significant additional investments. This in turn will reduce fuel 
expenses  and  dependence  on  fossil  fuel  imports,  and  improve  the  EU's  energy 
security.  In  the  policy  scenarios,  the  total  investments  in  the  transport  fleet  and 
alternative fuels infrastructure deployment are projected at EUR 608 to EUR 623 
billion  per  year  on  average  for  2021-2030  and  EUR  726  to  EUR  736  billion  per 
year  for  2031-2050.  Importantly,  the  existing  policies  lead  to  the  bulk  of  these 
investments.  The additional investments  needed  to contribute towards  the at  least 
55% economy-wide emission reduction target by 2030 are estimated at EUR 10 to 
EUR  12  billion  per  year  for  2021-2030  relative  to  developments  under  existing 
policies (i.e. the Baseline scenario). 

1133.  Comparing 2021-2030 to 2011-2020 period, average annual  investments  in  the 
fleet  and  alternative  fuels  infrastructure  deployment  will  need  to  be  EUR  116  to 
EUR 131 billion higher. The lowest investments relative to the previous decade are 
projected  in  the  CPRICE  scenario  (EUR  116  billion  per  year),  due  to  the  carbon 
pricing that results in lower road transport activity relative to the Baseline. In the 
other scenarios, the average annual investments range between EUR 128 and EUR 
131  billion  per  year.  The  highest  investments  would  be  needed  in  the  MIX  and 
REG  scenarios  (EUR  130  and  EUR  131  billion,  respectively)  due  to  the  vehicle 
efficiency standards and large scale deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure, 
as  well  as  measures  that  support  multimodal  mobility,  enabled  by  digitalisation, 
and support for sustainable urban transport. 

629 This does not include related investments for revamping of production lines, development of future-proof clean technologies, of 
new entrant technologies etc., which are usually accounted for in the manufacturing sector investments.  

263 

 
 
                                                      
Figure 64: Additional annual average investments for 2021-2030 under existing policies 
and to achieve higher GHG emissions reductions - in billions euros (2015) 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1134.  In addition, investments in infrastructure will be needed to support  multimodal 
mobility, digitalisation and sustainable urban transport. Current investments related 
to  the  core  TEN-T  network  and  other  interurban  and  urban  infrastructure  are 
estimated  at  135  billion  euros  per  year.  For  2021-2030,  the  green  transformation 
investment gap for infrastructure is estimated at EUR 100 billion per year630 (EUR 
30  billion  for  the  core  TEN-T  network,  EUR  35  billion  for  other  interurban 
infrastructure and EUR 35 billion for urban transport infrastructure)631. 

1135.  Overall,  during  2021-2030632,  the  additional  investment  needs  for  sustainable 
and smart mobility cover both vehicles, rolling stock, vessels, airplanes, alternative 
fuels infrastructure deployment (EUR 116 to EUR 131 billion per year) and green 
investments to deliver on Europe’s wider transport infrastructure (EUR 100 billion 
per year). 

5.2.8  Social impacts 

1136.  In  the  Baseline  scenario,  households’  annual  transport  related  expenditures  are 
projected  at  EUR  1,028  billion  per  year  on  average  for  2021-2030  or  12.8%  of 
households’  income.  In  the  policy  scenarios,  the  households’  annual  transport 
related  expenditures  over  the  2021-2030  period  would  go  up  by  1.3  to  2.1% 
relative  to  the  Baseline,  the  highest  increase  taking  place  in  ALLBNK  scenario. 
The increase in the share of total transport costs in households' expenditures would 
be limited, to 0.2-0.3 percentage points relative to the Baseline.  

630 This includes rapid transit systems, port and airports, multi-modal logistics, safety, traffic management. 
631  SWD(2020)  98  final.  The  estimates  are  based  on  TEN-T  Work  Plans,  the  European  Investment  Bank,  and  also  use  the 
assumption that the baseline investments needed in transport infrastructure is in the range of 1% of GDP. Given that EU Member 
States  have  faced  a  reduction  in  the  fiscal  space  since  the  financial  crisis  of  2012,  there  is  an  accumulated  backlog  of  transport 
investment in the past decade. These figures are based on the assumption that this investment gap needs to be covered in the future. 
632 Compared to the previous decade (2011-2020). 

264 

 
 
                                                      
Figure 65: Households’ annual  transport related expenditures in the Baseline and policy 
scenarios - in billions euros (2015) 
Households' expenditures on 
transport - annual average for 2021-
2030 (% change compared to the 
Baseline) 

BSL 
(bil. 
EUR 
'2015) 

MIX  CPRICE  ALLBNK 

MIX-50  REG 

Total transport costs 
Share of total transport costs in 
households' expenditures (in %) 
12.8% 
Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 

1,028 

1.6% 

1.6% 

1.7% 

1.3% 

2.1% 

13.0% 

13.0% 

13.0% 

13.0% 

13.1% 

1137.  As possible negative outcome of the transition, households in the lower income 
deciles  might  have  to  compensate  higher  expenditures  related  to  transport  by 
reducing  consumption  of  other  goods.  Several  policies  are  possible  to  mitigate 
negative distributional effects. Energy taxation plays an important role in how the 
burden  is  shared  among  citizens.  Progressive  tax  rates  would  have  the  effect  of 
reducing the costs for vulnerable consumers. Furthermore, a tax shift from labour 
to carbon could take the form of targeted labour tax cuts for low-income earners’. 

1138.  The 

impact  assessment  accompanying 

the  Commission  Communication 
“Stepping  up  Europe’s  2030  climate  ambition  -  Investing  in  a  climate-neutral 
future for the benefit of our people” has shown that the increased climate ambition 
would have limited impacts on the employment in the transport sector. The impacts 
of  transport-related  measures  will  depend  on  the  design  of  the  specific  measures 
that will be subject to future impact assessments.    

1139.  Employment  impacts  are  assessed  under  a  number  of  scenarios  and  variants. 
Given  the  critical  role  of  economic  interactions  with  the  rest  of  the  world,  two 
levels  of  climate ambition are considered  for  countries or blocks outside  the EU: 
(1) implementation  of  Nationally  Determined  Contributions  under  the  Paris 
Agreement  (“fragmented  action”);  and  (2) mitigation  efforts  that  are  compatible 
with the achievement of the 1.5°C target (“global action”). In addition, variants are 
assessed regarding the way carbon revenues are used by governments. JRC-GEM-
E3  model  was  used  to  assess  the  impacts  at  sectoral  level.  For  this  purpose, 
exogenous  assumptions  from  the  MIX  scenario  were  used  in  the  JRC-GEM-E3 
model.  

1140.  In the absence of complementary policies (recycling of carbon revenues to lower 
labour taxes), employment in the air transport sector is projected to be around 3.7% 
below the Baseline scenario in 2030 under the 55% “fragmented action” scenario. 
The  impacts  on  land  and  waterborne  transport  would  be  more  limited  (0.5% 
decrease for land transport and 0.3% reduction for waterborne transport relative to 
the Baseline scenario in  2030). Complementary policies could  nevertheless avoid 
negative  impacts  on  employment  altogether  (i.e.  for  land  transport)  or  generate  a 
small  positive  impact  relative  to  the  Baseline  (0.5%  increase  in  the  air  transport 
employment in 2030 and 0.2% in waterborne transport). 

Figure  66:  Impacts  of  at  least  55%  GHG  emissions  reduction  on  transport  sector 
employment (% change relative to the Baseline scenario) 

Employment relative to the Baseline scenario in 2030 with diversified policy setup 

Fragmented action 

Global action 

Air transport  

Land transport  

Waterborne transport  

-3.7 | 0.5 

-0.5 | 0.0 

-0.3 | 0.2 

265 

-3.8 | 1.5 

-0.7 | 0.1 

-4.1 | -2.9 

 
 
Source: JRC-GEM-E3 model 

1141.  The  expected  significant  shifts  in  the  sectoral  composition  of  employment  and 
the  associated  job  changes  that  workers  will  have  to  go  through633  over  the  next 
decade  under  higher  climate  ambition  would  generate  challenges  for  the  labour 
market  and  the  labour  force.  The  nature  of  the  challenges  relate  to  the  ability  of 
workers to move from a job in a given sector and occupation to another sector and 
potentially  another  occupation  requiring  different  skills.  They  also  relate  to  the 
ability  of  the  labour  market  to  match  labour  demand  and  labour  supply,  and  the 
ability of the education and vocational training systems to train or re-train workers, 
which  would  call  for  significant  investment  in  human  capital.  Regional  shifts  in 
employment,  e.g.  with  employment  creation  and  employment  destruction 
potentially  occurring  in  different  locations,  create  additional  challenges  when 
labour mobility across regions and/or countries is constrained. 

5.2.9  Sensitivity analysis on the COVID-19 pandemic 

1142.  As explained in section 2.3, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is uncertain. 
For  this  analysis  an  evaluation  was  made  how  reduced  economic  growth  and 
moderate  additional  structural  change  may  impact  the  transport  sector.  While  the 
short-term  projections  point  to  a  sharp  drop  in  GDP  in  2020  followed  by 
significant recovery in 2021, the pandemics is projected in this setting to result in a 
permanent  loss  of  GDP  of  around  2.3%  by  2030  compared  to  the  pre-COVID 
projections, as explained in section 2.3.  

1143.  The  potential  impacts  of  the  COVID-19  pandemic  on  the  EU-27  transport 
activity  and  CO2  emissions  by  2030  and  2050  with  existing  policies  have  been 
explained  in  section  2.3.  They  showed  that  despite  the  sharp  decline  in  CO2 
emissions  during  the  COVID-19  pandemic,  existing  policies  fall  well  short  in 
delivering the transport contribution to CO2 reductions under the European Green 
Deal  and  the  2030  Climate  Target  Plan.  In  the  COVID-Baseline  emissions  from 
transport excluding international maritime would only be 2.2% lower by 2030 and 
3.4% lower by 2050 relative to the pre-COVID Baseline.  

1144.  As  explained  in  section  5.1  a  variant  of  the  MIX  scenario  has  been  also 
developed,  that  includes  reduced  economic  growth  assumptions  due  to  the 
COVID-19  pandemic  and  corresponding  reduced  activity  in  the  EU-27  transport 
sector. The COVID-MIX variant achieves a reduction of 55% in the economy-wide 
GHG  emissions  and  is  similar  to  the  MIX  scenario  in  terms  of  policy  setup, 
including for the transport sector.  

1145.  A  comparison  of  the  key  indicators  in  the  MIX  and  COVID-MIX  scenarios  is 
provided in the table below. It shows that the lower transport activity relative to the 
pre-COVID  Baseline  results  in  slightly  higher  reductions  in  energy  use  and 
transport CO2 emissions in the COVID-MIX variant relative to the MIX scenario. 
By 2030, however, the change in the share of renewable energy in transport is very 
limited  compared  to  the  MIX  scenario.  This  is  also  the  case  with  respect  to  the 
technology mix by transport mode.   

Figure 67: Comparison of key indicators in the MIX scenario and COVID-MIX variant 

2030 

MIX 

COVID-MIX 

633  For  example  transitioning  from  a  job  in  a  sector  experiencing  net  losses  in  employment  to  a  new  job  in  another  sector,  or 
transitioning within sector but to a different job more aligned with the needs of the green economy. 

266 

 
  
                                                      
CO2 emissions reductions from transport (excluding 
international maritime) compared to 2015 (%) 

-14% 

-16% 

CO2 emissions reductions from transport including intra-EU 
aviation and maritime compared to 2015 (%) 

RES transport share (%) 

Total energy savings in transport compared to 2015 (%) 

Final energy savings in transport compared to 2015 (%) 

Average annual investments during the 2021-2030 period in bn 
EUR'15 

Additional average annual investments during 2021-2030 
compared to the 2011-2020 period in bn EUR'15 

-16% 

23.7% 

-5% 

-12% 

MIX 

622 

130 

-18% 

23.5% 

-8% 

-14% 

COVID-MIX 

607 

132 

Source: PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model (E3Modelling) 
Note:  The  figures  above  relate  to  investments  in  vehicles,  rolling  stock,  vessels,  airplanes  and  alternative  fuels  infrastructure 
deployment 

1146.  A  critical  conclusion  that  can  be  drawn  from  the  COVID  sensitivity  analysis 
relates to the additional investment needs, which are not affected to any significant 
extent.  The  COVID-MIX  variant  still  requires  a  similar  additional  amount  of 
investments  in  vehicles,  rolling  stock,  vessels,  airplanes  and  alternative  fuels 
infrastructure deployment during 2021-2030 compared to the 2011-2020 period. 

1147.  The  current  economic  recession  and  the  limited  negative  impact  on  GDP 
projected by 2030 therefore do not reduce the need to invest strongly in the coming 
decade  to  support  the  sustainable  and  smart  mobility.  It  must  be  noted  also  that 
significant  behavioural  changes  relating  to  consumption  habits  and  mobility 
patterns were not  assumed to  take place to  a significant  extent under the COVID 
variants. As indicated in the in-depth analysis in support of the Communication “A 
clean  planet  for  all”,  however,  such  behavioural  changes  may  reduce  investment 
needs if they are adopted widely and to a significant extent. 

1148.  While investments in the necessary green capital goods improve overall resource 
efficiency and stimulate more sustainable long-term growth, triggering them at the 
necessary  scale  in  the  current  circumstance  will  be  even  more  challenging  than 
before  the  crisis  and  will  require  additional  incentives  coupled  with  a  supportive 
regulatory  environment.  The  scale  and  focus  of  the  recovery  packages  currently 
being put  in  place at  the level  of the EU  and individual  Member States therefore 
will  be  of  importance  for  the  achievement  of  sustainable  and  smart  mobility  that 
contributes  towards  a  higher  level  of  climate  ambition  by  2030,  and  socially  and 
environmentally sustainable growth, in a context where private investors may face 
challenging financial situations. 

267 

 
 
 
 
6  ANNEX I - ANALYTICAL METHODS 

6.1.1  Description of the modelling tools used  

6.1.1.1  Main modelling suite  

The  main  model  suite  used  to  produce  the  scenarios  presented  in  this  Staff  Working 
Document has a successful record of use in the Commission's energy and climate policy 
assessments.  In  particular,  it  has  been  used  for  the  Commission’s  proposal  for  Long 
Term  Strategy634  as  well  as  for  the  2020  and  2030  EU’s  climate  and  energy  policy 
framework.  

The PRIMES and PRIMES-TREMOVE models are the core elements of the modelling 
framework  for  energy,  transport  and  CO2  emission  projections.  The  GAINS  model  is 
used for non-CO2 emission projections and the GLOBIOM-G4M models for projections 
of  LULUCF  emissions  and  removals  and  the  CAPRI  model  is  used  for  agricultural 
activity projections.  

The model suite thus covers: 

  The  entire  energy  system  (energy  demand,  supply,  prices  and  investments  to  the 

future) and all GHG emissions and removals from the EU economy. 

  Time horizon: 1990 to 2070 (5-year time steps). 

  Geography: individually all EU Member States, EU candidate countries and, where 

relevant Norway, Switzerland and Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

  Impacts:  on  the  energy  system  (PRIMES  and  its  satellite  model  on  biomass), 
transport  (PRIMES-TREMOVE),  agriculture  (CAPRI),  forestry  and  land  use 
(GLOBIOM-G4M),  atmospheric  dispersion,  health  and  ecosystems  (acidification, 
eutrophication)  (GAINS);  macro-economy  with  multiple  sectors,  employment  and 
social welfare (GEM-E3). 

The modelling suite was recently updated in  the context  of the in-depth  analysis of the 
proposal  for  an  EU  Long  Term  Strategy,  with  addition  of  a  new  buildings  module, 
improved  representation  of  electricity  sector,  more  granular  representation  of  hydrogen 
and synthetic fuels produced with electricity (“e-fuels”), as well updated interlinkages of 
the models to improve land use and non-CO2 modelling. 

The  models  are  linked  with  each  other  in  such  a  way  to  ensure  consistency  in  the 
building of scenarios (Figure 68). These inter-linkages are necessary to provide the core 
of the analysis, which are interdependent energy, transport and GHG emissions trends.  

634 https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/clima/files/docs/pages/com_2018_733_analysis_in_support_en_0.pdf  

268 

 
 
                                                      
Figure 68: Interlinkages between models 

6.1.1.1.1  Energy: the PRIMES model 

The  PRIMES  model  (Price-Induced  Market  Equilibrium  System)635  is  a  large  scale 
applied  energy  system  model  that  provides  detailed  projections  of  energy  demand, 
supply, prices and investment to the future, covering the entire energy system including 
emissions.  The  distinctive  feature  of  PRIMES  is  the  combination  of  behavioural 
modelling (following a  micro-economic  foundation) with  engineering  aspects,  covering 
all  energy  sectors  and  markets.  The  model  has  a  detailed  representation  of  policy 
instruments related to energy markets and climate , including market drivers, standards, 
and  targets  by  sector  or  overall.  It  simulates  the  EU  Emissions  Trading  System  in  its 
current  form.  It handles  multiple policy objectives, such as  GHG  emissions reductions, 
energy efficiency, and renewable energy targets,  and provides pan-European simulation 
of internal markets for electricity and gas. 

PRIMES  offer  the  possibility  of  handling  market  distortions,  barriers  to  rational 
decisions, behaviours and market coordination issues and it has full accounting of costs 
(CAPEX  and  OPEX)  and  investment  on  infrastructure  needs.  The  model  covers  the 
horizon up to 2070 in 5-year interval periods and includes all Member States of the EU 
individually,  as  well  as  neighbouring  and  candidate  countries.  PRIMES  is  designed  to 
analyse  complex  interactions  within  the  energy  system  in  a  multiple  agent  –  multiple 
markets framework. 

Decisions  by  agents  are  formulated  based  on  microeconomic  foundation  (utility 
maximization,  cost  minimization  and  market  equilibrium)  embedding  engineering 
constraints and explicit representation of technologies and vintages; optionally perfect or 
imperfect foresight for the modelling of investment in all sectors. 

PRIMES allows simulating long-term transformations/transitions and includes non-linear 
formulation  of  potentials  by  type  (resources,  sites,  acceptability  etc.)  and  technology 
learning. Figure 69 shows a schematic representation of the PRIMES model. 

635 More information and model documentation: https://e3modelling.com/modelling-tools/primes/  

269 

 
 
 
                                                      
Figure 69: Schematic representation of the PRIMES model 

It  includes  a  detailed  numerical  model  on  biomass  supply,  namely  PRIMES-Biomass, 
which  simulates  the  economics  of  supply  of  biomass  and  waste  for  energy  purposes 
through  a  network  of  current  and  future  processes.  The  model  transforms  biomass  (or 
waste) feedstock, thus primary feedstock or residues, into bio-energy commodities which 
undergo  further  transformation  in  the  energy  system  e.g.  as  input  into  power  plants, 
heating  boilers  or  fuels  for  transportation.  The  model  calculates  the  inputs  in  terms  of 
primary  feedstock  of  biomass  and  waste  to  satisfy  a  given  demand  for  bio-energy 
commodities and provides quantification of the required production capacity (for plants 
transforming feedstock into bioenergy commodities). Furthermore, all the costs resulting 
from  the  production  of  bioenergy  commodities  and  the  resulting  prices  are  quantified. 
The PRIMES-Biomass model is a key link of communication between the energy system 
projections  obtained  by  the  core  PRIMES  energy  system  model  and  the  projections  on 
agriculture,  forestry  and  non-CO2  emissions  provided  by  other  modelling  tools 
participating in the scenario modelling suite (CAPRI, GLOBIOM/G4M, GAINS).  
PRIMES  is  a  private  model  maintained  by  E3Modelling636,  originally  developed  in  the 
context  of  a  series  of  research  programmes  co-financed  by  the  European  Commission. 
The model has been successfully peer-reviewed, most recently in 2011637; team members 
regularly participate in international conferences and publish in scientific peer-reviewed 
journals. 

636 E3Modelling (https://e3modelling.com/) is a private consulting, established as a spin-off inheriting staff, knowledge and software-
modelling innovation of the laboratory E3MLab from the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA).  
637 SEC(2011)1569 : https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/sec_2011_1569_2.pdf  

270 

 
 
 
                                                      
Sources for data inputs 

A summary of database sources, in the current version of PRIMES, is provided below: 

•  Eurostat  and  EEA:  Energy  Balance  sheets,  Energy  prices  (complemented  by  other 
sources,  such  IEA),  macroeconomic  and  sectoral  activity  data  (PRIMES  sectors 
correspond  to  NACE  3-digit  classification),  population  data  and  projections, 
physical activity data (complemented by other sources), CHP surveys, CO2 emission 
factors  (sectoral  and  reference  approaches)  and  EU  ETS  registry  for  allocating 
emissions between ETS and non ETS 

•  Technology  databases:  ODYSSEE-MURE638,  ICARUS,  Eco-design,  VGB  (power 
technologies,  NEMS  model 

technology  costs),  TECHPOL  –  supply  sector 
database639, IPPC BAT Technologies640 

•  Power Plant Inventory: ESAP SA and PLATTS 
•  RES  capacities,  potential  and  availability:  JRC  ENSPRESO641,  JRC  EMHIRES642, 

RES ninja643, ECN, DLR and Observer, IRENA 
•  Network infrastructure: ENTSOE, GIE, other operators 
•  Other databases: District heating surveys (e.g. from COGEN), buildings and houses 
statistics and surveys  (various sources, including ENTRANZE project644,  INSPIRE 
archive, BPIE645), JRC-IDEES646, update to the EU Building stock Observatory647 

6.1.1.1.2  Transport: the PRIMES-TREMOVE model  

The  PRIMES-TREMOVE  transport  model  projects  the  evolution  of  demand  for 
passengers  and  freight  transport,  by  transport  mode,  and  transport  vehicle/technology, 
following  a  formulation  based  on  microeconomic  foundation  of  decisions  of  multiple 
actors. Operation, investment and emission costs, various policy measures, utility factors 
and  congestion  are  among  the  drivers  that  influence  the  projections  of  the  model.  The 
projections  of  activity,  equipment  (fleet),  usage  of  equipment,  energy  consumption  and 
emissions (and other externalities) constitute the set of model outputs.  

The PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model can therefore provide the quantitative analysis 
for  the  transport  sector  in  the  EU,  candidate  and  neighbouring  countries  covering 
activity,  equipment,  energy  and  emissions.  The  model  accounts  for  each  country 
separately which means that the detailed long-term outlooks are available both for each 
country and in aggregate forms (e.g. EU level). 

In the transport field, PRIMES-TREMOVE is suitable for modelling soft measures (e.g. 
eco-driving,  labelling);  economic  measures  (e.g.  subsidies  and  taxes  on  fuels,  vehicles, 
emissions; ETS for transport when linked with PRIMES; pricing of congestion and other 
externalities  such  as  air  pollution;  accidents  and  noise;  measures  supporting  R&D); 
regulatory  measures  (e.g.  CO2  emission  performance  standards  for  new  passenger  and 
heavy  duty  vehicles;  EURO  standards  on  road  transport  vehicles;  technology  standards 
for  non-road  transport  technologies,  deployment  of  Intelligent  Transport  Systems)  and 

638 https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/  
639 Source: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/info_nems_archive.php  
640 Source: https://eippcb.jrc.ec.europa.eu/reference/  
641 Source: https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/id-00138   
642 Source: https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/jrc-emhires-wind-generation-time-series   
643 Source: https://www.renewables.ninja/   
644 Source: https://www.entranze.eu/   
645Source:  http://bpie.eu/   
646 Source: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/potencia/jrc-idees   
647 Source: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/eubuildings  

271 

 
 
                                                      
infrastructure  policies  for  alternative  fuels  (e.g.  deployment  of  refuelling/recharging 
infrastructure for electricity, hydrogen, LNG, CNG). Used as a module that contributes to 
the PRIMES model energy system model, PRIMES-TREMOVE can show how policies 
and trends in the field of transport contribute to economy-wide trends in energy use and 
emissions.  Using  data  disaggregated  per  Member  State,  the  model  can  show 
differentiated trends across Member States.  

The PRIMES-TREMOVE has been developed and is maintained by E3Modelling, based 
on,  but  extending  features  of,  the  open  source  TREMOVE  model  developed  by  the 
TREMOVE648 modelling community. Part of the model (e.g. the utility nested tree) was 
built  following  the  TREMOVE  model.649  Other  parts,  like  the  component  on  fuel 
consumption and emissions, follow the COPERT model. 

Data inputs 

The main data sources for inputs to the PRIMES-TREMOVE model, such as for activity 
and  energy  consumption,  comes  from  EUROSTAT  database  and  from  the  Statistical 
Pocketbook  "EU  transport  in  figures650.  Excise  taxes  are  derived  from  DG  TAXUD 
excise  duty  tables.  Other  data  comes  from  different  sources  such  as  research  projects 
(e.g. TRACCS project) and reports. 

In the context of this exercise, the PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model is calibrated to 
2005, 2010 and 2015 historical data. 

6.1.1.1.3  Non-CO2 GHG emissions and air pollution: GAINS  

The GAINS (Greenhouse gas and Air Pollution Information and Simulation) model is an 
integrated  assessment  model  of  air  pollutant  and  greenhouse  gas  emissions  and  their 
interactions.  GAINS  brings  together  data  on  economic  development,  the  structure, 
control  potential  and  costs  of  emission  sources  and  the  formation  and  dispersion  of 
pollutants in the atmosphere. 

In addition to the projection and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions at detailed sub-
sectorial  level,  GAINS  assesses  air  pollution  impacts  on  human  health  from  fine 
particulate  matter  and  ground-level  ozone,  vegetation  damage  caused  by  ground-level 
ozone,  the  acidification  of  terrestrial  and  aquatic  ecosystems  and  excess  nitrogen 
deposition of soils. 

Model  uses  include  the  projection  of  non-CO2  GHG  emissions  and  air  pollutant 
emissions  for  EU  Reference  scenario  and  policy  scenarios,  calibrated  to  UNFCCC 
emission data as historical data source. This allows for an assessment, per Member State, 
of  the  (technical)  options  and  emission  potential  for  non-CO2  emissions.  Health  and 
environmental co-benefits  of climate and  energy  policies such as energy  efficiency can 
also be assessed. 

648 Source: https://www.tmleuven.be/en/navigation/TREMOVE    
649 Several model enhancements were made compared to the standard TREMOVE model, as for example: for the number of vintages 
(allowing  representation  of  the  choice  of  second-hand  cars);  for  the  technology  categories  which  include  vehicle  types  using 
electricity  from  the  grid  and  fuel  cells.  The  model  also  incorporates  additional  fuel  types,  such as  biofuels  (when  they  differ  from 
standard  fossil  fuel  technologies),  LPG,  LNG,  hydrogen  and  e-fuels.  In  addition,  representation  of  infrastructure  for  refuelling  and 
recharging  are  among  the  model  refinements,  influencing  fuel  choices.  A  major  model  enhancement  concerns  the  inclusion  of 
heterogeneity in the distance of stylised trips; the model considers that the trip distances follow a distribution function with different 
distances  and  frequencies.  The  inclusion  of  heterogeneity  was  found  to  be  of  significant  influence  in  the  choice  of  vehicle-fuels 
especially for vehicles-fuels with range limitations. 
650 Source: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/facts-fundings/statistics_en  

272 

 
 
                                                      
The  GAINS  model  is  accessible  for  expert  users  through  a  model  interface651  and  has 
been  developed  and  is  maintained  by  the  International  Institute  of  Applied  Systems 
Analysis652.  The  underlying  algorithms  are  described  in  publicly  available  literature. 
GAINS  and  its  predecessor  RAINS  have  been  peer  reviewed  multiple  times,  in  2004, 
2009 and 2011. 

Sources for data inputs 

The  GAINS  model  assess  emissions  to  air  for  given  externally  produced  activity  data 
scenarios. For Europe, GAINS uses macroeconomic and energy sector scenarios from the 
PRIMES model, for agricultural sector activity data GAINS adopts historical data from 
EUROSTAT and aligns these with future projections from the CAPRI model. Projections 
for  waste  generation,  organic  content  of  wastewater  and  consumption  of  F-gases  are 
projected in GAINS in consistency with macroeconomic and population scenarios from 
PRIMES.  For  global  scenarios,  GAINS  uses  macroeconomic  and  energy  sector 
projections from IEA World Energy Outlook scenarios and agricultural sector projections 
from FAO. All other input data to GAINS, i.e., sector- and technology- specific emission 
the 
taken  from 
factors  and  cost  parameters,  are 
documentation.  

literature  and  referenced 

in 

6.1.1.1.4  Forestry and land-use: GLOBIOM-G4M  

The  Global  Biosphere  Management  Model  (GLOBIOM)  is  a  global  recursive  dynamic 
partial equilibrium model integrating the agricultural, bioenergy and forestry sectors with 
the  aim  to  provide  policy  analysis  on  global  issues  concerning  land  use  competition 
between the major land-based production sectors. Agricultural and forestry production as 
well  as  bioenergy  production  are  modelled  in  a  detailed  way  accounting  for  about  20 
globally  most  important  crops,  a  range  of  livestock  production  activities,  forestry 
commodities as well as different energy transformation pathways. 

GLOBIOM covers 50 world regions / countries, including the EU-27 Member States.  

Model  uses  include  the  projection  of  emissions  from  land  use,  land  use  change  and 
forestry  (LULUCF)  for  EU  Reference  scenario  and  policy  scenarios.  For  the  forestry 
sector,  emissions  and  removals  are  projected  by  the  Global  Forestry  Model  (G4M),  a 
geographically  explicit  agent-based  model  that  assesses  afforestation,  deforestation  and 
forest  management  decisions.  GLOBIOM-G4M  is  also  used  in  the  LULUCF  impact 
assessment  to  assess  the  options  (afforestation,  deforestation,  forest  management,  and 
cropland and grassland management) and costs of enhancing the LULUCF sink for each 
Member State. 

The  GLOBIOM-G4M  has  been  developed  and  is  maintained  by  the  International 
Institute of Applied Systems Analysis653. 

Sources for data inputs 

The  main  market  data  sources  for  GLOBIOM-EU  are  EUROSTAT  and  FAOSTAT, 
which provide data at the national level and which are spatially allocated using data from 
the SPAM model654. Crop management systems are parameterised based on simulations 
from  the  biophysical  process-based  crop  model  EPIC.  The  livestock  production  system 

651 Source: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/models/  
652 Source: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/   
653 Source : http://www.iiasa.ac.at/   
654 See You, L., Wood, S. (2006). An Entropy Approach to Spatial Disaggregation of Agricultural Production, Agricultural Systems 
90, 329–47 and http://mapspam.info/ . 

273 

 
 
                                                      
parameterization  relies  on  the  dataset  by  Herrero  et  al655.  Further  datasets  are 
incorporated, coming from the scientific literature and other research projects. 

GLOBIOM is calibrated to FAOSTAT data for the year 2000 (average 1998 - 2002) and 
runs recursively dynamic in 10-year time-steps. In the context of this exercise, baseline 
trends of agricultural  commodities are aligned with FAOSTAT data  for  2010/2020  and 
broadly  with  AGLINK-COSIMO  trends  for  main  agricultural  commodities  in  the  EU 
until 2030. 
The  main  data  sources  for  G4M  are  CORINE,  Forest  Europe  (MCPFE,  2015)656, 
countries’  submissions  to  UNFCCC  and  KP,  FAO  Forest  Resource  Assessments,  and 
national  forest  inventory  reports.  Afforestation  and  deforestation  trends  in  G4M  are 
calibrated to historical data for the period 2000-2013. 

6.1.1.1.5  Agriculture: CAPRI  

CAPRI is  a global  multi-country agricultural  sector model, supporting decision making 
related to the Common Agricultural Policy and environmental policy and therefore with 
far greater detail for Europe than for other world regions. It is maintained and developed 
in a network of public and private agencies including the European Commission (JRC), 
Universities (Bonn University, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Universidad 
Politécnica  de  Madrid),  research  agencies  (Thünen  Institute),  and  private  agencies 
(EuroCARE,  in  charge  for  use  in  this  modelling  cluster);  the  model  takes  inputs  from 
GEM-E3,  PRIMES  and  PRIMES  Biomass  model,  provides  outputs  to  GAINS,  and 
exchanges  information  with  GLOBIOM  on  livestock,  crops,  and  forestry  as  well  as 
LULUCF effects. 

The  CAPRI  model  provides  the  agricultural  outlook  for  the  Reference  Scenario,  in 
particular  on  livestock  and  fertilisers  use,  further  it  provides  the  impacts  on  the 
agricultural sector from changed biofuel demand. Depending on need it may also be used 
to run climate mitigation scenarios, diet shift scenarios or CAP scenarios. 

Cross checks are undertaken ex-ante and ex-post to ensure consistency with GLOBIOM 
on overlapping variables, in particular for the crop sector.  

Sources for data inputs 

The  main  data  source  for  CAPRI  is  EUROSTAT.  This  concerns  data  on  production, 
market balances, land use, animal herds, prices, and sectoral income. EUROSTAT data 
are  complemented  with  sources  for  specific  topics  (like  CAP  payments  or  biofuel 
production).  For  Western  Balkan  regions  a  database  matching  with  the  EUROSTAT 
inputs for CAPRI has been compiled based on national data. For non-European regions 
the  key  data  source  is  FAOSTAT,  which  also  serves  as  a  fall  back  option  in  case  of 
missing EUROSTAT data. The database compilation is a modelling exercise on its own 
because  usually  several  sources  are  available  for  the  same  or  related  items  and  their 
reconciliation  involves  the  optimisation  to  reproduce  the  hard  data  as  good  as  possible 
while maintaining all technical constraints like adding up conditions. 

In the context of this exercise, the CAPRI model uses historical data series at least up to 
2017,  and  the  first  simulation  years  (2010  and  2015)  are  calibrated  to  reproduce  the 
historical data as good as possible. 

655 Herrero, M., Havlík, P., et al.  (2013). Biomass Use, Production, Feed Efficiencies, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Global 
Livestock Systems, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110, 20888–93. 
656 MCPFE (2015). Forest Europe, 2015: State of Europe's Forests 2015. Madrid, Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests 
in Europe: 314. 

274 

 
 
                                                      
6.1.1.1.6  Global climate and energy policy context: POLES-JRC 

The POLES-JRC model used to provide the global energy and climate policy context is 
operated by the JRC657.  

POLES is a global energy model that covers the entire energy balance, from final energy 
demand,  transformation  and  power  production  to  primary  supply  and  trade  of  energy 
commodities across countries and regions.  It  allows assessing the contribution to future 
energy needs  of the various energy types (fossil fuels,  nuclear, renewables) and energy 
vectors. 

In addition, it calculates the evolution of GHG emissions: endogenously for the energy-
industry  sectors  and  through  linkage  with  specialist  models  for  GHG  emissions  from 
land-use and agriculture (GLOBIOM-G4M), and air pollution (GAINS). 

The model includes a detailed geographical representation, with a total of 39 non-EU-27 
regions and countries covering the world; that includes all G20 countries, detailed OECD 
and  the  main  non-OECD  economies.  It  operates  on  a  yearly  time  step,  allowing 
integrating recent developments. 

The POLES model is well suited to evaluate the evolution of energy demand in the main 
world economies and international markets as well as to assess international climate and 
energy policies. The POLES model has participated in numerous research projects, and 
has contributed to peer-reviewed analyses published widely658. 
Sources for data inputs659 

Data on socio-economic activity come from the UN and IIASA (population), the World 
Bank, IMF and OECD (GDP and economic activity), sectoral databases on industrial and 
mobility activity.  

The  main  energy  data  sources  of  the  POLES-JRC  model  are  IEA,  Enerdata,  BGR, 
USGS, Platts, BP, NEA. 

Fossil energy production costs are based on Rystad, complemented by information from 
the  literature.  Renewables  potentials  are  based  on  NREL,  DLR,  and  GLOBIOM, 
complemented  by  information  from  the  literature.  The  technology  costs  and  learning 
curves are based on extensive literature review, including but not limited to IEA and the 
SETIS database. 

Emissions data are for UNFCCC, EDGAR, National inventories, FAO. 

POLES-JRC  work  developed  for  this  exercise  is  based  on  JRC  work  for  the  Global 
Energy  and  Climate  Outlook  (GECO)  report  series660.  The  POLES-JRC  model  was 
updated  with  historical  data  up  to  2018  (population,  GDP,  energy  balances)  and  2019 
(international  energy  prices,  GDP  projections).  It  includes  country  policies  that  have 
been  legislated  as  of  June  2019  or  correspond  to  objectives  found  in  the  UNFCCC’s 
Nationally Determined Contributions. 

6.1.1.1.7  GEM-E3 

GEM-E3  is  a  large  scale  multi-sectoral  CGE  model  that  features  a  series  of  modelling 
framework  of 
innovations 

the  constraining 

its  departure 

that  enables 

from 

657 https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/poles   
658 https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/poles/publications  
659 For non-EU. Sources for the EU are consistent with those of the PRIMES energy model. 
660 https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/geco  

275 

 
 
                                                      
standard/textbook  CGE models  (where  all  resources  are  assumed  to  be  fully  used)  to  a 
modelling system that features a more realistic representation of the complex economic 
system.  The  key  innovations  of  the  model  relate  to  the  explicit  representation  of  the 
financial  sector,  semi-endogenous  dynamics  based  on  R&D  induced  technical  progress 
and  knowledge  spillovers,  the  representation  of  multiple  households,  unemployment  in 
the  labour  market  and  endogenous  formation  of  labour  skills.  The  model  has  detailed 
sectoral  and  geographical  coverage,  with  51  products  and  46  countries/regions  (global 
coverage)  and  it  is  calibrated  to  a  wide  range  of  datasets  comprising  of  IO  tables, 
financial  accounting  matrices, 
transactions,  energy  balances,  GHG 
inventories, bilateral trade matrices, investment matrices and household budget surveys. 
All  countries  in  the  model  are  linked  through  endogenous  bilateral  trade  transactions 
identifying origin and destination. Particular focus is placed on the representation of the 
energy system where specialised bottom-up modules of the power generation, buildings 
and transport sectors have been developed. The model is recursive dynamic coupled with 
a  forward-looking  expectations  mechanism  and  produces  projections  of  the  economic 
and energy systems until  2100 in  increasing time steps:  annual  from 2015 to  2030  and 
then  five-year  period  until  2100.  Figure  70  shows  a  schematic  representation  of  the 
GEM-E3 model.  

institutional 

Figure 70: Schematic representation of the GEM-E3 model 

The model has been used to provide the sectoral economic assumptions as input for this 
modelling  exercise.  GEM-E3  produces  consistent  sectorial  value  added  and  trade 
projections  matching  GDP  and  population  projections  by  country  taken  from  other 
sources such as the ECFIN t+10 projections for economic activity, the Europop and the 
Ageing  Report.  The  model  can  also  be  used  to  assess  the  impacts  of  the  energy  and 
climate targets on macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP and employment. 

The most important results, provided by GEM-E3 are: Full Input-Output tables for each 
country/region  identified  in  the  model,  dynamic  projections  in  constant  values  and 
deflators of national accounts by country, employment by economic activity and by skill 
and  unemployment  rates,  capital,  interest  rates  and  investment  by  country  and  sector, 
private and public consumption, bilateral trade flows, consumption matrices by product 
and investment matrix by ownership branch, GHG emissions by country, sector and fuel 

276 

 
 
 
 
and  detailed  energy  system  projections  (energy  demand  by  sector  and  fuel,  power 
generation mix, deployment of transport technologies, energy efficiency improvements). 

This  analysis  has  used  mainly 
JRC-GEM-E3661,  complemented  by 
E3Modelling662. Detailed documentation is publicly available. 
Sources663 for data inputs 

the  European  Commission’s 

JRC  version 
the  GEM-E3-FIT  version  operated  by 

•  EUROSTAT,  WIOD,  EU-KLEMS  and  GTAP:  Input  Output  tables,  National 
Accounts,  Employment,  Institutional  Transactions,  Labour  force  and  Participation 
rates, Bilateral Trade, GHG emissions, Capital stock, taxes, Household consumption 
by purpose 

•  National Statistical Offices: Consumption Matrices 
•  ECB: Bonds, Treasury bills 
• 
•  World Bank: Infrastructure 
• 

ILO: Employment, Unemployment rate 

IMF and OECD: Interest rates, Inflation, Bonds, Treasury bills 

6.1.2  Assumptions on technology, economics and energy prices 

to  reflect 

the  fundamental  socio-economic, 

technological  and  policy 
In  order 
developments,  the  Commission  prepares  periodically  an  EU  Reference  Scenario  on 
energy, transport and GHG emissions. The latest one dates from 2016664 and is currently 
being  revised.  This  update  is  not  yet  finalised  and  work  is  ongoing  on  Member  States 
details  and  the  related  consultations.  Furthermore  this  work  will  also  be  updated  to 
incorporate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.  

The scenarios assessment as used in this Staff Working Document incorporate the latest 
developments  in  the  update  of  the  Reference  scenario,  notably  related  to  the  socio-
economic assumptions, energy price projections and technological assumptions. 

6.1.2.1  Economic assumptions 

The  modelling  work  is  based  on  socio-economic  assumptions  describing  the  expected 
evolution  of  the  European  society.  Long-term  projections  on  population  dynamics  and 
economic  activity  form  part  of  the  input  to  the  energy  model  and  are  used  to  estimate 
final  energy  demand.  Population  projections  from  Eurostat665  are  used  to  estimate  the 
evolution  of  the  European  population  that  is  projected  to  change  very  little  in  total 
number in the coming decades. 

  Pre-COVID economic assumptions 

The pre-COVD socio-economic assumptions were prepared before the COVID pandemic 
unfolded.  The  long-term  evolution  of  economic  activity  was  estimated  from  three 
sources:  DG  ECFIN’s  short  term  economic  forecast,  t+10  projections  and  the  2018 
Aging  Report  projections  elaborated  by  the  European  Commission.  For  the  short-term 
(2020-2021),  the  projections  are  based  on  actual  growth  forecast  by  the  Directorate 
General for Economic and Financial Affairs (Autumn Forecast 2019). Projections up to 

661 Source: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/gem-e3/model    
662 Source: https://e3modelling.com/   
663  The data sources of energy statistics are the same as in the PRIMES model. 
664 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/data-analysis/energy-modelling/eu-reference-scenario-2016_en  
665 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-projections/population-projections-data  

277 

 
 
                                                      
2029  use  the  associated  t+10  work  from  DG  ECFIN,  which  is  based  on  projections  of 
potential output growth and a closure of any output gap in the medium term. The long-
term  per  capita  GDP  growth  projections  of  the  2018  Ageing  Report  are  used  for  the 
period 2030-2070666. Figure 71 shows the projected evolution of the EU GDP up to 2050. 
Transport activity projections complement the socio-economic projections. 

Figure 71: Projected EU GDP (2015 = 100) 

These  pre-COVID  socio-economic  assumptions  were  used  as  modelling  inputs  for  all 
scenario runs, except COVID-BSL and COVID-MIX. 

  Post-COVID assumptions 

The  COVID-19  pandemic  upended  economic  projections  made  in  preparation  of  this 
analysis. In particular, the Commission’s Spring Economic Forecast 2020 projected that 
the  EU  economy  would  contract  by  7.4%  in  2020  and  pick  up  in  2021 with  growth  of 
6.1%.  Together  with  the  associated  revision  of  DG  ECFIN’s  t+10  projections,  this 
implies that real GDP in 2030 could be approximately 2.3% lower compared to the pre-
COVID estimates presented above, based on the Autumn Forecast 2019. 

Beyond  the  update  of  the  population  and  growth  assumptions,  an  update  of  the 
projections  on  the  sectoral  composition  of  GDP  was  also  carried  out.  This  aims  to 
integrate the potential medium- to long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 
structure of the economy, even though this is clouded with uncertainty.  

6.1.2.2  Energy prices assumptions 

Alongside  socio-economic  projections,  EU  energy  modelling  requires  projections  of 
international fuel prices. The projections of the POLES-JRC model – elaborated by the 
Joint  Research  Centre  in  the  context  of  the  Global  Energy  and  Climate  Outlook  2019 
(GECO  2019)  –  are  used  to  obtain  long-term  estimates  of  the  international  fuel  prices. 
The projected evolution of fossil fuel prices is lower than estimates used by the European 
Commission in the Reference 2016 Scenario. Among other factors, the development  of 

666  The  2018  Ageing  Report:  Economic  and  Budgetary  Projections 
https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/economy-finance/2018-ageing-report-economic-and-budgetary-projections-eu-member-states-
2016-2070_en   

the  EU  Member  States 

(2016-2070): 

for 

278 

 
 
 
                                                      
56.7 

21.8 

58.9 

22.8 

'45 

99.5 

50.2 

19.3 

'50 

113.2 

52.1 

20.1 

unconventional  oil  and  gas  resources  increased  fossil  fuel  supply  estimates  for  the 
coming decade.  

Figure  72  shows  the  international  fuel  prices  that  were  used  in  the  different  “pre-
COVID” scenarios (BSL, MIX-50, REG, MIX, CPRICE, ALLBNK). 

Figure 72: International fuel prices assumptions – non-COVID scenarios 

in  USD'15  per 
boe 

2000 

'05 

'10 

'15 

'20 

'25 

'30 

'35 

'40 

'45 

'50 

Oil 

Gas (NCV) 

Coal 

38.4 

26.5 

11.2 

65.4 

86.7 

52.3 

58.0 

73.2 

86.9 

93.9 

100.8 

110.4 

125.5 

35.8 

45.8 

43.7 

35.7 

39.9 

41.8 

47.9 

57.3 

16.9 

23.2 

13.1 

13.2 

16.9 

18.4 

19.8 

20.8 

in EUR'15 per boe  2000 

'05 

'10 

'15 

'20 

'25 

'30 

'35 

'40 

Oil 

Gas (NCV) 

Coal 

34.6 

23.4 

9.9 

58.9 

78.2 

47.2 

52.3 

66.0 

78.3 

84.7 

90.9 

31.7 

40.6 

38.7 

31.6 

35.4 

37.0 

42.4 

50.7 

15.0 

20.6 

11.6 

11.7 

14.9 

16.3 

17.5 

18.4 

Source: JRC, POLES-JRC model, derived from GECO 2019 

In order to obtain robust results, international  fuel price assumptions were compared to 
the  similar  projections  from  several  sources.  Figure  73  shows  the  comparison  between 
projected  oil  prices  in  2030  and  estimates  from  selected  studies  by  international 
organizations:  Rystad,  World  Bank,  Energy  Information  Administration,  International 
Energy Agency. The price used in the EU Reference Scenario 2016667 is also reported for 
comparison. 

Figure 73: Oil price projections in 2030 according to various sources 

Note: Rystad and World Bank estimates as of 2019 

The  COVID  crisis  has  had  a  major  impact  on  international  fuel  prices.  In  the  months 
following  the  first  wave  of  outbreaks,  a  majority  of  countries  across  the  world  enacted 
lockdowns,  hence  limiting  transport  of  people  and  goods  and  changing  work  pattern. 
This impacted energy demand with a historic shock only seen worse during the Spanish 

667 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/data-analysis/energy-modelling/eu-reference-scenario-2016_en  

279 

020406080100120140WB Oil priceRystad OilpriceIEO2019ReferenceWEO2019StatedPoliciesImpactAssessmentBSLWEO2019CurrentpoliciesEU REF 2016WBRystadEIAIEACOMIEACOMUSD2015 / bl 
 
 
 
 
                                                      
flu,  the  Great  Depression  and  World  War II.668  The  demand  decrease  during  the  2008 
financial  crisis  came  nowhere  near  the  impact  of  COVID.  The  lost  demand  left  an 
oversupply leading to decreasing prices. 

This impact hit oil first and foremost, being the main fuel  for transport (culminating in 
negative oil prices in one occurrence). Coal consumption also decreased sharply due to 
lower electricity demand. In general, fossil fuels were most strongly affected. This effect 
on  prices  compared  to  pre-COVID  estimates  is  expected  to  be  still  felt  up  to  2030, 
although  this  will  depend  on  the  recovery  of  global  oil  demand  as  well  as  on  the 
compliance with the OPEC+ existing and possible future deals669 to adjust supply. 

Figure 74 shows the alternative assumptions retained to reflect the COVID impact on the 
fuel prices in the two COVID scenarios analysed (COVID-BSL and COVID-MIX). 

Figure 74: International fuel prices assumptions – COVID scenarios  

in USD'15 per boe  2000 

‘05 

‘10 

‘15 

‘20 

‘25 

‘30 

‘35 

‘40 

‘45 

‘50 

Oil 

38.4 

65.4 

86.7 

52.3 

37.2 

58.6 

80.1 

90.4 

97.4 

105.6 

117.9 

Gas (NCV) 

26.5 

35.8 

45.8 

43.7 

22.2 

31.5 

40.9 

44.9 

52.6 

57.0 

57.8 

Coal 

11.2 

16.9 

23.2 

13.1 

10.1 

13.9 

17.6 

19.1 

20.3 

21.3 

22.3 

in EUR'15 per boe 

2000 

2005 

‘10 

‘15 

‘20 

‘25 

‘30 

‘35 

‘40 

‘45 

‘50 

Oil 

34.6 

58.9 

78.2 

47.2 

33.5 

52.8 

72.2 

81.5 

87.8 

95.2 

106.3 

Gas (NCV) 

23.4 

31.7 

40.6 

38.7 

19.7 

27.9 

36.2 

39.7 

46.6 

50.5 

51.2 

Coal 

9.9 

15.0 

20.6 

11.6 

8.9 

12.3 

15.6 

16.9 

18.0 

18.9 

19.7 

Source: Estimates, derived from JRC, POLES-JRC model, GECO 2019 

6.1.2.3  Technology assumptions 

Modelling  scenarios  on  the  evolution  of  the  energy  system  is  highly  dependent  on  the 
assumptions  on  the  development  of  technologies  -  both  in  terms  of  performance  and 
costs. For the purpose of this modelling exercise, these assumptions have been updated 
based on a rigorous literature review carried out by external consultants in collaboration 
with the JRC670.  

Continuing  the  approach  adopted  in  the  long-term  strategy  in  2018,  the  Commission 
consulted technology assumption with stakeholders in 2019. In particular, the technology 
database of the main model suite (PRIMES, PRIMES-TREMOVE, GAINS, GLOBIOM, 
and  CAPRI)  benefited  from  a  dedicated  consultation  workshop  held  on  16th  May  2018 
and a more recent  one on 11th  November 2019. EU Member States  representatives had 
also  the opportunity to  comment  on the costs elements  during a workshop held  on 25th 
November 2019. The updated list of technology assumptions will be published together 
with the upcoming Reference Scenario update. 

6.1.3  Policies in the existing policies scenario (Baseline scenario)  

In  order  to  assess  the  trajectory  that  is  entailed  by  the  recent  policies  and  objectives 
adopted at EU level, a Baseline scenario was developed.  

668 IEA, Global Energy Review 2020, June 2020 
669 IEA, Oil Market Report, June 2020 and US EIA, July 2020. 
670 JRC118275 

280 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                      
It  assumes  that  measures  are  taken  either  at  EU  or  MS  level  in  order  to  achieve  the 
energy and climate 2030 targets671, as adopted by EU leaders on October 2014672, further 
refined on May 2018 with the agreement on the Effort Sharing Regulation and enhanced 
on June 2018 with the agreement on the recast of Renewable Energy Directive and the 
revised Energy Efficiency Directive. 

In addition to the headline targets, some of the policies included in this baseline are: 
  The EU Emissions Trading System673 (EU ETS) covers 45% of EU GHG emissions, 
notably  from industry, the power sector and aviation. Emissions for the ensemble of 
sectors under the system are capped to reduce by 43% by 2030 compared to 2005. The 
baseline  scenario  additionally  assumes  that  the  Market  Stability  Reserve  will  ensure 
that the ETS contributes to the achievement of the overall target cost-effectively. MSR 
functioning is set to be reviewed674 in 2021 and every five years after to ensure its aim 
of tackling structural supply-demand imbalances. 

  Aviation  emissions  are  also  covered  by  the  EU  ETS.  The  EU,  however,  decided  in 
2014 to limit the scope of the EU ETS to flights within the EEA until 2016 to support 
the development of a global measure by the International Civil Aviation Organization 
(ICAO).675  In light  of the  adoption of a Resolution by the 2016  ICAO Assembly on 
the global measure, the EU has decided to maintain the geographic scope of the EU 
ETS limited to intra-EEA flights from 2017 until the end of 2023.676 The EU ETS for 
aviation will be subject to a new review in the light of the international developments 
related to the operationalisation of CORSIA. The next review should consider how to 
implement  the  global  measure  in  Union  law  through  a  revision  of  the  EU  ETS 
legislation. In the absence of a new amendment, the EU ETS would revert back to its 
original full scope from 2024.  

  The  Effort  Sharing  Regulation677  (ESR)  sets  binding  annual  reduction  targets  for 
member states, with an aim to reduce emissions by 30% compared to 2005 by 2030. 
The ESR targets are set according to national wealth and cost-effectiveness. The ESR 
allows for flexibilities such as transfers between member states.  

  The  Land  Use,  Land  Use  Change  and  Forestry  Regulation678  (LULUCF  regulation), 
whereby accounted emissions should not exceed removals and that includes incentive 
to improve land use practices, flexibility and trading, flexibility towards ESR. 

  CO2  emission  standards  for  new  cars  and  vans679  and  for  new  trucks680  have  been 
defined,  and  will  contribute  towards  reducing  emissions  from  the  road  transport 
sector.  

  The Fuel  Quality Directive681 requires a  reduction  of the GHG intensity of transport 

fuels by a minimum of 6% to be achieved by 2020.  

671  The  2030  climate  and  energy  framework  did  set  three  key  targets  for  the  year  2030:  (a)  at  least  40%  cuts  in  greenhouse  gas 
emissions (from 1990 levels), (b) at least 27% share for renewable energy, and  (c) at least 27% improvement in energy  efficiency. 
They built on the 2020 climate and energy package. 
672 Conclusions of the European Council of 23 and 24 October 2014. 
673 Directive 2003/87/EC 
674 Decision (EU) 2015/1814 
675 Regulation (EU) 421/2014 
676 Regulation (EU) 2017/2392 
677 Regulation (EU) 2018/842 
678 Regulation (EU) 2018/841 
679 Regulations (EU) 2019/631 
680 Regulation (EU) 2019/1242 
681 Directive 2009/30/EC 

281 

 
 
                                                      
  The revised Renewable Energy Directive682 entered into force in 2018. It establishes a 
new  binding  renewable  energy  target  for  the  EU  for  2030  of  at  least  32%,  with  a 
clause for a possible upwards revision by 2023. 

  The  Energy  Efficiency  Directive  was  amended  in  2018683  establishing  a  target  of  at 
least  32.5%  for  2030.  This  means  in  absolute  terms,  that  EU  energy  consumption 
should be no more than 1128 Mtoe of primary energy and no more than 846 Mtoe of 
final  energy.684  The  Directive  allows  for  a  possible  upward  revision  in  the  target  in 
2023. 

  The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive and its amendment in 2018685 aim to 
achieve  a  highly  energy  efficient  and  decarbonised  building  stock  and  to  create  a 
stable environment for investment decisions. It established an obligation for Member 
States to present long-term renovation strategies, aiming at decarbonising the national 
building stocks by 2050, with indicative milestones for 2030 and 2040. 

  The  Ecodesign  and  Energy  Labelling  Directives  establish  a  framework  for  a  set  of 
regulations to improve the energy efficiency of different product categories. They help 
eliminate the least performing products from the market, and support competitiveness 
and harmonised standards throughout the internal market. 

  In the field of transport, besides the post-2020 CO2 standards for new light duty and 
heavy  duty  vehicles,  the  Clean  Vehicles  Directive  and  the  Directive  on  the 
deployment of alternative fuels  infrastructure contribute to  the roll-out of recharging 
infrastructure. Furthermore, the uptake of sustainable alternative fuels is supported by 
the  Renewables  Energy  Directive  and  Fuel  Quality  Directive.  Improvements  in 
transport  system  efficiency  (by  making  the  most  of  digital  technologies  and  smart 
pricing  and  further  encouraging  multi-modal  integration  and  shifts  towards  more 
sustainable  transport  modes)  are  facilitated  by  e.g.  the  TEN-T  Regulation  supported 
by  CEF  funding,  the  fourth  Railway  Package,  the  proposed  revision  of  the 
Eurovignette Directive, the Directive on Intelligent Transport Systems, the European 
Rail  Traffic  Management  System  European  deployment  plan,  the  Regulation 
establishing a framework for the provision of port services, and others. 

  For aviation, in addition to implementation of the EU Emission Trading Scheme, the 
Baseline  reflects  the  Union-wide  air  transport  performance  targets  for  the  key 
performance area of environment, Clean Sky, Single European Sky and SESAR, and 
aircraft  CO2  emissions  standards,  as  part  of  the  so-called  “basket  of  measures”  that 
aim to reduce emissions from the sector.  

  For maritime shipping, in addition to emissions being monitored under the Regulation 
on  Monitoring,  Reporting  and  Verification  of  Maritime  Emissions686,  the  Baseline 
scenario  reflects  the  Energy  Efficiency  Design  Index  (EEDI)  and  the  Ship  Energy 
Efficiency  Management  Plan  (SEEMP)  adopted  by  the  International  Maritime 
Organisation, as  well as  the Sulphur Directive. The Baseline  also  accounts for other 
initiatives  addressing  air  pollution  from  inland  waterways  vessels,  as  well  as  road 
safety, and thus reducing the external costs of transport. 

682 Directive 2018/2001/EU 
683 Amendment 2018/2002 of Directive 2012/27/EU 
684 This takes into account the withdrawal of the United Kingdom and the Commission decision for an equivalent target after EU law 
no longer applies to the United Kingdom. 
685 Directive 2010/31/EU and amendement 2018/844/EU 
686 Regulation (EU) 2015/757 

282 

 
 
                                                      
In  addition,  these  policies  will  continue  pushing  further  GHG  emissions  reduction,  and 
increasing energy savings and renewable energies deployment after 2030, either because 
they do not have a "sunset clause" (notably ETS, and since recently, Article 7 in revised 
EED), or because of the technological learning and cost reductions that they are expected 
to  induce.  Moreover,  most  actions  in  the  energy  system  have  long-term  impacts  (e.g. 
construction  of  well-insulated  houses,  efficient  power  plants  or  other  types  of 
infrastructure). The baseline captures these dynamics, but it needs to be emphasised that 
no intensification of policies post-2030 was  assumed and no target  for GHG emissions 
reduction in 2050 was set concerning climate neutrality.  

Moreover,  BSL has been specifically built  for the purpose of the development  of long-
term  decarbonisation  scenarios.  It  does  not  reflect  specific,  short-term  Member  State 
policies,  and,  in  particular,  no  consultation  with  the  Member  States  has  taken  place  to 
verify  that  current  or  updated  policies  are  adequately  represented,  as  currently  being 
included under the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs).  

Beyond specific climate and energy policies, a range of other policies will definitely play 
an important role in achieving reductions of GHG emissions of the EU economy.  

First  of  all,  some  sectoral  policies  will  affect  directly  the  dynamics  of  GHG  emission. 
This is the case of transport and industrial policies for instance, which will affect notably 
the  way  and  the  forms  in  which  energy  is  consumed,  and  thus  will  modify  associated 
GHG  emissions.  Agricultural  policy  and  waste  policy  will  play  an  important  role  on 
sectoral  methane  and  nitrous  oxide  emissions,  two  powerful  GHGes,  and  will  also 
contribute to the supply of renewable fuels to the energy sector, and thus to its capacity 
to mitigate GHG (and notably CO2) emissions.  

Second,  other,  more  “horizontal”,  policies  are  to  play  an  indirect,  but  crucial,  role  in 
shaping  the  capacity  of  the  EU  economy  to  deliver  GHG  reductions.  Such  policies  are 
often referred to as “enabling policies” and aim at ensuring a favourable environment for 
the 
technological 
development, economic adaptation, and are critical to guarantee social inclusiveness. 

transformation.  They  relate 

the  steering  of 

investments, 

to 

This Commission has launched in 2020 a number of key initiatives that are relevant for 
this assessment:  

- 
- 
- 
- 
- 

the European Green Deal Investment Plan687 
the European Industrial Strategy688 
the Circular Economy Action Plan689 
the Farm to Fork Strategy690 
the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030691  

These  policies  have  not  been  considered  in  the  baseline,  but  they  will  contribute  to 
achieving a higher climate target, and are thus reflected in the policy analysis. 

A key element to play a role on the evolution by 2030 of GHG emissions in the EU is the 
MFF692  for  2021-2027,  which  is  being  negotiated.  A  number  of  policies  and  funding 
tools  under  this  framework  matter  for  the  GHG  profile,  notably  to  steer  investments 

687 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_24   
688 COM(2020) 102 final,  
689 COM(2020) 98 final 
690 COM(2020) 381 final 
691 COM(2020) 380 final 
692 In May 2020, the Commission has proposed a powerful, modern and revamped long-term EU budget boosted by Next Generation 
EU - see COM(2020) 442 final 

283 

 
 
                                                      
towards the climate objective, to accelerate research and development on clean solutions 
with Horizon Europe693 or through the ambitious CAP strategic plans694. 

Finally, the Baseline scenario considers key national policies that are existing or reflected 
in the national NECPs.   

6.1.4  Policy scenarios 

The following overview provides the scenario description used in the modelling suite covering all 
sectors of the economy.  

693 https://ec.europa.eu/info/horizon-europe-next-research-and-innovation-framework-programme_en    
694 https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/key-policies/common-agricultural-policy/future-cap_en  

284 

 
 
  
 
                                                      
Figure 75: Scenario assumptions description (scenarios developed with the PRIMES-GAINS-GLOBIOM modelling suite) 

Scenario 

Baseline 

REG 

MIX / MIX-50 

CPRICE 

ALLBNK 

Brief description 

Achieving the current 2030 
EU targets 

No extension of ETS scope 
to buildings and road 
transport, but extension of 
ETS to intra-EU maritime 
navigation 

Extension of ETS scope to 
buildings, road transport 
and intra-EU maritime 
navigation but also 
keeping road transport and 
buildings in ESR 

Extension of ETS scope to 
buildings, road transport 
and intra-EU maritime 
navigation; buildings and 
road transport are taken out 
of the ESR 

Most ambitious scenario 
for GHG reductions 

Achievement of EE 32.5% 
target; 
Achievement of 32% RES 
target 

High ambition increase of 
EE and RES policies. 
There is no carbon price 
applied in buildings and 
road transport 

Medium/low ambition 
increase of EE and RES 
policies in non-ETS 
because RES and EE 
legislation is revised to 
contribute to higher GHG 
target. 
Additionally, a carbon 
price is also applied in 
buildings and road 
transport 
EU-27 

Carbon pricing as the 
principal instrument to 
reduce CO2 emissions, no 
intensification of EE or 
RES policies, some 
intensification of policies 
related to transport CO2  

Applies the GHG target on 
a broader scope including 
all international aviation 
and international maritime 
navigation  

Target scope 

Aviation 

Maritime navigation 

Achieved reduction 
(including net LULUCF 
sink) 

Intra + Extra EU aviation 
is included 

International Intra + Extra 
EU maritime navigation  
not included 

Intra EU aviation and navigation included 

Intra + Extra EU aviation 
and navigation included 

Around 55% 

At least 50% and 
Around 55% 

Around 55% 

Around 55% 

285 

 
 
 
 
 
Scenario 

Baseline 

REG 

MIX / MIX-50 

CPRICE 

ALLBNK 

ASSUMED POLICIES 

Carbon pricing (stylised, for international aviation and maritime navigation may represent also other instruments than EU ETS such as taxation or CORSIA for 
aviation) 

Stationary ETS 

Aviation - Intra EU 

Yes 

Yes 

Aviation - Extra EU 

Yes 

Maritime navigation - Intra 
EU 

International Intra EU 
maritime navigation not 
included 

Yes: mixture 50/50 carbon pricing (reflecting inclusion in the ETS, or taxation, or 
CORSIA) and carbon value (reflecting operational and technical measures); total equal 
to EU ETS carbon price 

Yes, carbon pricing, equal to the EU ETS carbon price 

Maritime navigation - 
Extra EU 

No 

Yes: mixture of 50/50 carbon pricing (reflecting inclusion in the ETS or taxation) and a 
carbon value (reflecting operational and technical measures); total equal to the EU ETS 
carbon price 

Buildings and road 
transport 

Coal phase out 

No 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

CO2 standards for LDVs and HDVs + Charging and refuelling infrastructure development (review of the AFID and 
TEN-T Regulation & funding), including strengthened role of buildings 

CO2 standards for LDVs 
and HDVs 

Yes as currently legislated 

EE policies overall 
ambition 

Stylised (32.5% EE) 

High Ambition increase 

High ambition increase 

Medium/low ambition 
increase 

Medium/low Ambition 
increase 

Low ambition increase  Medium Ambition increase 

As in BSL 

Medium Ambition increase 

286 

 
 
Scenario 

Baseline 

REG 

EE in Buildings + Industry 

Stylised (32.5% EE) 

High Ambition increase 
(increase in renovation 
rate, support for heat 
pumps uptake) 

MIX / MIX-50 
Medium/low Ambition 
increase 
(increase in renovation 
rate, support for heat 
pumps uptake) 

CPRICE 

ALLBNK 

As in BSL 

As in MIX 

EE in Transport 
(see details in the section 
below) 

As currently legislated + 
proposed revision of the 
Eurovignette Directive 

High Ambition increase 

Medium/low Ambition 
increase 

Low Ambition increase 

As in MIX 

RES policies overall 
ambition 

Stylised (32% RES) 

High Ambition increase 

RES in buildings + 
Industry 

Stylised (32.5% EE) 

High Ambition increase 
(incentives for uptake of 
RES in heating and 
cooling) 

Medium/low Ambition 
increase 
Medium/low Ambition 
increase 
(incentives for uptake of 
RES in heating and 
cooling) 

High Ambition increase  Medium Ambition increase 

As in BSL 

As in MIX 

RES policies in ETS 

Stylised (32% RES) 

Implications of the new offshore strategy 

RES in transport and 
policies impacting 
transport fuel content 

Stylised (32% RES) 

High ambition increase of 
fuel policies (Renewable 
and low carbon fuels 
mandate, including 
ReFuelEU aviation and 
FuelEU maritime 
initiatives) 

Medium/low ambition 
increase of fuel policies 
(Renewable and low 
carbon fuels mandate, 
including ReFuelEU 
aviation and FuelEU 
maritime initiatives) 

Low ambition increase of 
fuel policies (reflecting 
ReFuelEU aviation and 
FuelEU maritime 
initiatives) 

Very high ambition 
increase of fuel policies 
(reflecting ReFuelEU 
aviation and FuelEU 
maritime initiatives) 

Additional non-CO2 
policies (represented by 
carbon value) 

No 

Medium Ambition increase 

High Ambition increase 

287 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Scenario 
LULUCF policies 

Baseline 
No 

REG 

MIX / MIX-50 

CPRICE 

ALLBNK 

No (Separate scenarios assessment of impact of policies that enhance the LULULCF sink) 

These policies are presented in the PRIMES modelling tool where some take the form of explicit policies such as for instance improved product energy 
performance standards, vehicle CO2 standards and fuel mandates and others are induced by Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy and non-CO2 values, 
which reflect generic incentives altering investment decisions towards increased energy efficiency and renewable energy options (including removal of 
non-market barriers and consumer behaviour in favour of energy efficiency) and abatement of non-CO2 emissions. Figure 76 shows that these values for 
the different scenarios typically are higher in policy scenarios that are based on regulatory approaches than in scenarios that are more based on carbon 
pricing. The values in the Baseline reflect the existing policy framework required to meet the current climate and energy targets. The transport policies 
included in each scenario are provided in section 5.  

Figure 76: Key modelling variables reflecting underlying policy assumptions 

Scenarios 

Baseline 
MIX-50 
REG 
MIX 
CPRICE 
ALLBNK 

Carbon price ETS sectors                     

(EUR'15/ t of CO2) 
32 
36 
32 
44 
60 
65 

Non CO2 carbon values  
(EUR'15/ t of CO2) 695 
0.0 
0.6 
10 
10 
10 
55 

Average renewables value  
(EUR'15/ MWh) 
91 
94 
177 
112 
49 
111 

Average energy efficiency value  
(EUR'15/ toe) 
891 
951 
1270 
1194 
891 
1202 

695 Mitigation potential based on the GAINS model marginal abatement cost curve but interpolated to fit PRIMES optimisation.  

288