REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Renewable Energy Progress Report
Date: 2020-10-14
Institutions: Directorate-General for Energy, European Commission
Subjects: EU Member State, EU energy policy, bioenergy, biofuel, electrical industry, energy consumption, energy cooperation, energy industry, reduction of gas emissions, renewable energy

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 14.10.2020  COM(2020) 952 final  REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Renewable Energy Progress Report  
 
 
1. INTRODUCTION 

Renewable  energy  is  at  the  core  of  the  European  Green  Deal  priorities.  The  Directive 
2009/28/EC  on  the  promotion  of  the  use  of  energy  from  renewable  sources1 (RED  I)  is  a 
central element in the EU’s energy policy and a key driver for meeting the renewable energy 
targets  for 2020. The 2020 targets  are also  the first major milestone to  provide the basis to 
deliver  on  the  increased  ambition  of  55%  greenhouse  gas  (GHG)  emissions  reductions  by 
2030  as  envisaged  in  the  Climate  Target  Plan2 under  the  European  Green  Deal3.  With  that 
increased  ambition,  the  EU  has  established  a  balanced  path  to  climate  neutrality  by  2050 
through the deep decarbonisation of all sectors of the economy. In this sense, a transition is 
needed  from  today’s  energy  system  to  an  integrated  energy  system  largely  based  on 
renewables. As specified in the impact assessment for the Climate Target Plan for the 55% 
greenhouse gas reduction, the 2030 share of renewables will need to reach 38-40%.4    

The  Energy  System  Integration  Strategy5 emphasises  that  Europe’s  energy  future  must  rely 
on  an  ever  growing  share  of  geographically  distributed  renewable  energies  that  integrate 
different  energy  carriers  flexibly,  while  remaining  resource-efficient  and  avoiding  pollution 
and  biodiversity  loss.  Clean  and  renewable  energy  will  also  be  a  building  block  of  the 
economic recovery in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis. The Commission’s recovery plan6, 
as presented on 27 May 2020, highlights the need for better integration of the energy system, 
as  part  of  efforts  to  unlock  investment  in  key  clean  technologies  and  value  chains  and 
increase  economy-wide  resilience.  In  the  context  of  the  Recovery  and  Resilience  Facility, 
Member States shall prepare national recovery and resilience plans, which shall be consistent 
with  the  relevant  country-specific  challenges  and  priorities  identified  in  the  context  of  the 
European  Semester,  in  particular  those  relevant  for  or  resulting  from  the  green  and  digital 
transition.  The  recovery  and  resilience  plans  shall  also  be  consistent  with  the  information 
included  by  the  Member  States  in  the  national  reform  programmes  under  the  European 
Semester, in  their national  energy and climate plans (NECP)  and updates thereof under the 
Regulation  (EU)2018/1999,  in  the  territorial  just  transition  plans  under  the  Just  Transition 
Fund, and in the partnership agreements and programmes under EU funds.  

A  main  building  block  is  the  entry  into  force  of  the  Directive  (EU)  2018/2001  on  the 
promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources (RED II7) on 24 December 2018. The 
new directive established a robust framework for meeting the binding EU target of at least 32 
%  renewable  energy  in  gross  final  energy  consumption  by  2030.  This  framework  built  on 
progress under the RED I include inter alia the obligation for Member States to use the 2020 

1 Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the 
use of energy from renewable sources, OJL 140, 5.6.2009. p. 16  
2 COM(2020) COM(2020) 562 final 
3 COM(2019) 640 final. 
4 SWD(2020) 176 final 
5 COM(2020) 299 final 
6 COM (2020)456 final 
7 Directive  (EU)  2018/2001  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  11  December  2018  on  the 
promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources (OJ L 328, 21.12.2018, p. 82). 

1 

 
 
 
                                                           
targets as the baseline for national trajectories in the NECPs. Following the submission of all 
the NECPs the EU’s renewable energy share is now expected to reach 33.1-33.7%8 in 2030. 
The  aggregated  Member  States  contributions  indicate  that  renewable  energy  use  will  grow 
faster  in  the  years  up  to  2030,  so  that  if  the  Member  States’  deliver  (and  exceed)  their 
renewable  energy  contributions,  the  EU  overall  share  of  renewable  energy  will  therefore 
surpass the 32% target. 

The EU’s political priority of becoming the world leader in renewables is underpinned by the 
presence  of  renewables  in  all  dimensions  of  the  Energy  Union.    Technology  leadership  is 
prominent  in  the  clean  energy  sector  (in  particular  in  wind,  ocean,  smart  grid  technologies 
and  renewable  hydrogen),  but  continuing  efforts  are  needed  to  catch  up  and  build  a 
competitive  edge  in  batteries  and  solar  photovoltaic  (PV) 9 .  The  EU  ranks  high  among 
international competitors in high value patents demonstrating the leading position of Europe 
to innovate and export new and improved low carbon technologies10. 

The  benefits  of  renewables  extend  well  beyond  the  dimensions  of  the  Energy  Union. 
Renewable  energies  are  a  source  of  economic  growth  and  jobs  for  Europeans,  in  particular 
local jobs with more than 1.5 million people currently working in the sector in the EU 
and  generating  an  estimated  annual  turnover  of  €158.9  billion11.  The  recent  report  on 
energy prices and costs in Europe12 documents that the greater amounts of renewable energy 
are a relevant factor behind the fall in wholesale energy prices in recent years. This could in 
turn reduce energy costs for industry and potentially improve industrial competitiveness. Last 
but  not  least,  the  falling  costs  of  the  technology,  combined  with  digitalisation  are  making 
renewables a real driving force for empowering consumers to play a key role in the energy 
transition. 

This report provides the latest insights into progress made up to 2018 towards the 2020 
national  binding  targets  on  renewables  and  fulfils  Commission  reporting  obligations 
under  RED  I  and  the  Directive  on  Indirect  Land  Use  Change  (ILUC)13. It uses energy 
statistics based on Member States transmissions to Eurostat up to July 2020 as primary data 
source  for  evaluating  progress  towards  the  2020  target.  This  report  builds  further  on  the 
Member States fifth biannual renewable energy  progress report covering 2017-1814, as well 
as  complementary  technical  analysis  conducted  in  the  course  of  2020.  It  also  includes  an 
overview of the potential in terms of co-operation mechanisms, and assess the administrative 
frameworks as well as biofuels sustainability.  

8 COM(2020) 564 final EU-wide assessment of National Energy and Climate Plans 
9 COM(2020)953 Report on progress of clean energy competitiveness 
10 JRC (2017), Monitoring R&I in Low-Carbon Energy Technologies, 
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC105642    
11 Eurobserv’ER (2020) 2019 barometer. https://www.eurobserv-er.org/19th-annual-overview-barometer/ 
12 Underlying study from Trinomics for the European Commission October 2020 Report on Energy prices and 
cost in Europe  
13 Directive (EU) 2015/1513 
14 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/renewable-energy/progress-reports  

2 

 
 
                                                           
The report consist of four main chapters. Chapter 2 sets out an overall EU level assessment 
while chapter 3 adds more detailed analysis of Member State progress including projections 
towards  2020.  Chapter  4  assesses  the  sustainability  of  biofuels.  Overall  conclusions  with 
recommendations are presented in Chapter 5. Unless specifically mentioned, figures provided 
in this report include the UK, an EU Member State in the 2018 reporting period 

2. EU PROGRESS IN DEPLOYING RENEWABLE ENERGY  

In 2018, the EU reached a share of 18.0% (18.9% EU 27) of renewable energy in gross 
final  energy  consumption, against a target of at least 20% (20.615 % for EU 27) for 2020, 
and above the indicative trajectory of 16% for 2017/2018.  In addition, the EU as a whole is 
also  above  the  slightly  more  ambitious  trajectory  defined  by  Member  States  themselves  in 
their National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs)16. Recent years, have seen a steady  
growth in the overall share of renewable energy sources (RES) at EU level and in the sectoral 
shares of renewable energy in electricity (RES-E), heating & cooling (RES-H&C), and to a 
lesser extent, transport (RES-T). 

With regard to individual sectors, at EU level the renewable energy share in electricity and 
heating and cooling has been systematically above the levels defined by Member States in 
their  NREAPs,  while  the  transport  sector  is  slightly  below  the  planned  share  in  the 
NREAP (8.03% actual versus 8.50% planned)17. This shortfall is partly due to the debate on 
biofuels  policy  and  the  related  adjustments  to  the  legislative  framework.  While  these 
adjustments were necessary to address sustainability concerns, the resulting uncertainty about 
the  future  policy  framework  slowed  down  investments  in  biofuel  production  capacity 
including advanced biofuels18. The increase in investment into advanced biofuel production 
capacity resulting from the adoption of RED II is not reflected in the 2018 data.  

Bioenergy in general continues to be the main source of renewable energy in the EU, with a 
share  of  around  60%  in  2018.  Solid  biofuels  account  with  68.4%  for  the  largest  share  of 
bioenergy. Of these solid biofuels, forestry accounts for approximately 91%. The other forms 
of bioenergy are liquid  biofuels (12.6%), biogas (11.6%), the renewable share of municipal 
waste (7.2%) and charcoal (2%).19 

15  Indicative  aggregated  EU  27  share  of  the  27  Member  States  national  binding  targets  and  based  on 
Commission estimates of the Gross Final Energy Consumption of energy in each EU27 Member State in 2020 
16 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/renewable-energy/national-action-plans    
17 Navigant  (2020): Technical assistance in realisation of the 5th report on progress of renewable energy in the 
EU - Task 1-2. Service contract: ENER/C1/ 2019-478 [DOI 10.2833/325152] 
18 Advanced biofuels are defined in the RED as  biofuels produced from a positive list of feedstock comprised 
mostly of wastes and residues.  
19 Navigant  (2020): Technical assistance in realisation of the 5th report on progress of renewable energy in the 
EU - Task 3. Service contract ENER/C1/ 2019-478 

3 

 
 
 
                                                           
Figure 1: Actual and planned renewable energy shares for the EU (2005-2020, %). Source: 
Eurostat and National Renewable Energy Action plans (NREAP)  

In terms of absolute consumption of renewable energy, heating & cooling makes the biggest 
contribution  (total  of 102.9 Mtoe in  2018),  closely followed by renewable electricity, (90.3 
Mtoe), and transport (25.1 Mtoe)20.  

The  main  renewable  sources  used  in  energy  consumption  sectors  were  biomass  for 
heating & cooling, hydropower and wind for electricity, and biofuels for transport.  

Member  States  are  primarily  supporting  RES  T  through  instruments  targeting  the  use  of 
biofuels, but they are increasingly promoting e-mobility options or are currently planning to 
implement  subsidies for e-mobility. Among those Member States that  already  have support 
instruments  in  place  are  Denmark,  Germany,  Ireland,  Croatia,  Italy,  Latvia,  Malta,  Austria, 
Romania, Sweden and the UK.   

In  the  electricity  sector,  a  clear  paradigm  shift  is  happening  towards  renewables. 
Between 2010 and 2018, the solar and wind cumulative capacity in EU has grown from 110 
GW to 261 GW21. One of the key factors has been the decline in the cost of electricity from 
solar PV and wind power, which over the period from 2009 to 2018 fell by nearly 75% and 
about 50% (depending on the market) respectively, due to capital costs reductions, advances 
in efficiency and supply chain improvements and competitive tendering for support schemes. 
E.g. Germany and Netherlands have since mid-2016 allocated more than 3.1 GW of offshore 
capacities under zero-subsidy bids22. By July 2020, 18 MS determine the support levels for 
(larger) RES-E installations in a competitive bidding process23. A continuation of the trend to 

20 Eurostat SHARES 2018. Using the multipliers set in RED I 
21 Eurostat 2020: EU energy in Figures. 
22 JRC, Wind Energy Technology Market Report, EUR 29922 EN, European Commission, Luxembourg, 2019 
23 Navigant (2020): Technical assistance in realisation of the  5th report on progress of renewable energy in the 
EU - Task 1-2. Service contract: ENER/C1/ 2019-478 [DOI 10.2833/325152] 

4 

 
 
 
                                                           
fully market-based RES-E projects would help contain electricity retail prices by reducing the 
support-related component24.  

Worldwide, solar  and wind  sources  accounted  for  most  new  power  generation in 2019, 
for the first time ever. Solar additions totalled 119 gigawatts (45% of all new capacity) and 
solar  and  wind  together  accounted  for  more  than  two  thirds  of  the  additions25.  Similarly, 
IRENA notes that newly installed renewable power capacity increasingly costs less than the 
cheapest power generation options based on fossil fuels.26  

The decline in costs is also one of the key drivers for an increase in the corporate sourcing of 
renewables, especially where corporate energy users sign a direct power purchase agreement 
with a renewable energy developer. In 2015-2019, the amount of renewable electricity to be 
supplied  under  corporate  power  purchase  agreements  in  Europe27 tripled  from  847  MW  to 
2487 MW28.  

3.  DETAILED  ASSESSMENTS  OF  MEMBER  STATES  PROGRESS  AND 
PROJECTIONS BY 2020 

1.  Progress in electricity, heating & cooling and transport 

The renewable energy shares reflect the historic diversity in Member States’ energy mix and 
their  differences  in  renewable  energy  potential  and  the  different  progress,  with  shares 
ranging from 7.4% in the Netherlands to 54.6% in Sweden in 2018 (see figure 2). 

Figure 2: EU and Member States renewable energy shares in gross final energy consumption 
2017-2018 vs.RED I trajectories  (source: Eurostat) 

24 COM(2020)951 Report on Energy prices and cost in Europe 
25   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/the-world-added-more-solar-wind-than-anything-

else-last-
year#:%7E:text=For%20the%20first%20time%20ever,a%20report%20Tuesday%20by%20BloombergNEF 

26 https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2019 
27 Including Norway and UK 
28 Bloomberg New Energy Finance Corporate PPA Database, accessed September 2020 

5 

 
 
 
                                                           
There are now twelve Member States29 (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, 
(Greece estimated), Finland, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania and Sweden) that have 
already achieved a share equal to, or higher than, their 2020 target. At the same time, 
during  2018,  six  Member  States  Spain,  Italy,  Lithuania,  Hungary,  Portugal  and  Romania 
have reduced their renewable energy share compared to 2017. 

For the indicative RED trajectories, 23 Member States are above it while Ireland, France, the 
Netherlands, Poland and Slovenia are below.  Ireland, France, Poland and Slovenia are below 
with shares between 0.7 and 2.3% while the Netherlands shows the biggest shortfall, with an 
actual  share  of  6.9%  for  2017-1208  versus  an  indicative  RED  trajectory  point  of  9.9%.  It 
lagged even further behind its 12.1% NREAP share for 2018. The largest positive deviations 
from their indicative RED trajectories can be observed for Croatia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic 
and Italy.  

Looking  at  the  absolute  levels  of  consumption  of  renewable  energy  in  EU,  there  is  a 
significant increase from 189 Mtoe in 2015 to 209 Mtoe in 2018 i.e. 10.6%. However, in the 
same  period  the  gross  final  consumption  of  energy  grew  from  1126  Mtoe  to  1160  Mtoe, 
which resulted in a decreased impact on the renewable energy share, as it is calculated as the 
final renewable energy consumption divided by the gross final consumption of energy.  

Sectorial  renewable  energy  shares  grew  for  a  large  majority  of  the  Member  States 
between 2017-2018. For the transport sector, where all Member States should reach the 
same  target  of  10%,  only  the  two  Member  States  Finland  and  Sweden  are  above  this 
level. While there are 4 Member States within a 1% range of this target (France, Netherland, 
Austria and Portugal), the remaining Member States will need a steep increase to reach the 
10% target. The recourse to statistical transfers for the transport sector, enabled by the ILUC 
Directive is also a possible avenue to explore.  

2.  Cross-border collaboration and the use of cooperation mechanisms  

Co-operation  mechanisms  are  based  on  Articles  6  to  11  of  RED  I.  They  include  several 
mechanisms  through  which  Member  States  can  cooperate  on  renewable  energy  such  as 
statistical  transfers,  joint  projects  and  joint  support  schemes.  Statistical  transfers  are 
particularly  relevant  to  facilitate  target  achievement  since  they  enable  Member  States  that 
have  reached  a  higher  renewable  energy  share  than  their  national  target  to  transfer  their 
surplus  to  another  Member  States.  There  are  currently  four  agreements  to  make  use  of 
statistical  transfers.  The  2  agreements  from  2017  between  Luxembourg-Lithuania  and 
Luxembourg-Estonia  while  2020  until  now  saw  2  additional  agreements  between 
Netherlands-Denmark as well as Malta-Estonia.  

According to the estimates that most Member States have included in their progress reports, 
there will be an overall 12,177 ktoe ‘excess production’ of renewable energy, compared 
to  the  indicative  trajectory,  available  for  potential  statistical  transfers  in  2020.  This 
corresponds  to  around  half  of  France  gross  final  consumption  of  energy  from  renewable 

29 Compared to 11 Member States in 2017. 

6 

 
 
                                                           
sources.  For  a  Member  State  that  may  not  meet  the  2020  target  using  their  own  renewable 
sources,  this  could  be  a  viable  option  to  meet  their  target  cost-effectively  (see  table  1).  To 
complement these expectations from Member States the Commission present an updated and 
coherent projection for 2020 in section 3. 

7 

 
 
2009 

2010 

2011 

2012 

2013 

2014 

2015 

2016 

2017 

2018 

2019 

2020 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

362 

348 

520 

630 

593 

602 

638 

579 

767 

411 

341 

Belgium 

Bulgaria 

Croatia 

Czech Republic 

0 

0 

0 

0 

1146 

1040 

694 

834 

1123 

1106 

833 

9236 

11831 

9816 

1066 

7967 

8069 

3945 

6141 

947 

928 

863 

552 

892 

619 

678 

643 

63 

3065 

Denmark 

Germany 

Estonia 

Ireland 

Greece 

Spain 

Italy 

Cyprus 

Latvia30 

Hungary 

Malta 

Netherlands 

Austria 

Poland31 

Portugal 

Romania 

Slovenia 

Slovakia 

Finland 

Sweden32 

Luxembourg 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

191 

206 

93 

196 

260 

380 

177 

-14 

306 

197 

111 

266 

230 

79 

211 

243 

243 

26 

-81 

-142 

-189 

300 

-12 

344 

397 

-239 

-366 

-377 

683 

529 

2026 

2866 

2704 

3326 

2040 

3106 

1323 

1220 

0 

8324 

8613 

7405 

10011 

10936 

9344 

9456 

7803 

7555 

5148 

3805 

2462 

29 

29 

18 

51 

4 

-37 

0 

72 

16 

95 

968 

1150 

1213 

1295 

883 

970 

803 

470 

271 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

543 

729 

929 

530 

0 

93 

3 

0 

0 

4 

0 

0 

- 

0 

0 

0 

174 

-26031 

-544 

790 

86 

0 

- 

0 

345 

1207 

1296 

824 

974 

1114 

1210 

1091 

1122 

858 

684 

439 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

1179 

1420 

1420 

1420 

2407 

2141 

2482 

3318 

3214 

3335 

3347 

3475 

3215 

3610 

3428 

3241 

45 

84 

00 

25345 

14119 

11938 

Total sum 
31831 
10987 
Table  1:  Actual  and  estimated  excess  and/or  deficit  production  of  renewable  energy  in 
Member States compared to the indicative RED trajectory (ktoe). Source: Navigant 202033, 
Member States reports34. 

27108 

28069 

33175 

22676 

19922 

21744 

12177 

30 Please note that  Latvia is ahead of their indicative  RED and planned NREAP trajectory for 2015-2016, but 
this was due to a lower energy consumption. They have (as indicated in their progress report) not reached the 
levels of gross RES consumption as planned, shown by the negative numbers in this table.   
31 Poland reported actual gross RES consumption negative compared to the planned value for 2016. Percentage 
wise  they  are  also  below  their  NREAP  planned  trajectory.  However,  their  achievement  in  percentages  shows 
that they are above the indicative trajectory as specified in the RED for 2015/2016. A cause could be a lower 
overall energy consumption than planned.    
32 The  values  still  refer  to  the  4th  Progress  Report.  Sweden  did  not  provide  updated  values  in  the  5th  Progress 
Report, but only referred to the estimates of the Swedish Energy Agency.  
33 Navigant  (2020): Technical assistance in realisation of the 5th report on progress of renewable energy  in the 
EU - Task 1-2. Service contract: ENER/C1/ 2019-478 [DOI 10.2833/325152] 
34 The table include only figures Member States that provided them in their progress report i.e. no information 
from United Kingdom and 5 Member States, Croatia, Portugal, Slovenia, France and Lithuania 

8 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
3.  Outlook for 2020 - current projections  

In order to assess the feasibility of 2020 target achievement, a modelling exercise35 has been 
carried out for the Commission. The analysis is based on an extrapolation of statistical data 
taking  into  account  the  RES  investment  level,  the  available  pipeline  of  RES  projects,  and 
relevant Current Policy Initiatives36 (CPI) including potential statistical transfers. The Covid-
19 pandemic has caused additional uncertainty on the various parts of the (renewable) energy 
market.  Due  to  these  uncertainties  two  distinct  demand  trends  (low  and  high  demand)  are 
shown  representing  likely  lower  and  upper  boundaries  of  what  is  classified  as  feasible 
concerning demand trends37. This is further combined with two distinct scenarios for the use 
of  RES  cooperation  by  means  of  statistical  transfers:  a  “strong  cooperation”  and  a  “weak 
cooperation” scenario. More precisely, at Member State level the following assumptions were 
taken: 

  “strong cooperation”: A statistical transfer of in total   1,700 GWh from Estonia (1,000 
GWh) and Lithuania (700 GWh) to Luxembourg, a statistical transfer of 16,000  GWh 
from Denmark to the Netherlands, and a statistical transfer of 80 GWh from Estonia 
to Malta. 

 

 “weak cooperation”: A statistical transfer of 1,100 GWh to Luxembourg (400 GWh 
from Estonia and 700 GWh from Lithuania), a statistical transfer of 8,000 GWh from 
Denmark  to  the  Netherlands,  and  a  statistical  transfer  of  80  GWh  from  Estonia  to 
Malta.  

This modelling projects the EU to reach a renewables share of 22.8% - 23.1% (see figure 
3 below) in 2020. It also finds that many individual Member States are expected to perform 
well  in  the  remaining  years,  reaching  deployment  levels  beyond  their  target  levels. 
Nevertheless, three Member States (Belgium, France, and Poland) are at severe risk of 
not  meeting  the  target.  Furthermore,  2  Member  States  the  Netherlands  and 
Luxembourg are at moderate risk of not meeting the target. For reference, the figure also 
includes  the  2020  baseline  that  the  Member  States  have  specified  in  their  Final  National 
Energy and Climate Plans.  

35 Navigant  (2020): Technical assistance in realisation of the 5th report on progress of renewable energy in the 
EU - Task 1-2. Service contract: ENER/C1/ 2019-478 [DOI 10.2833/325152] 
36 Note that the range indicates the uncertainty related to key input parameter for the model-based assessment of 
future  RES  progress.  Remarkably,  this  year’s  (2020)  energy  demand  drop  as  a  consequence  of  the  Covid-19 
pandemic, and corresponding (comparatively small) changes in RES supply play a decisive role in this respect. 
37 The demand trends are based on available data up to July 2020 

9 

 
 
                                                           
Figure  3:  Expected  RES  share  in  2020  vs.  2020  RED  target  RES  share  and  2020  NECP 
baseline (%) including cooperation mechanisms (source: Navigant) 

10 

 
 
 
 
The modelling also calculated absolute deficits and surplus in the Member States including 
the co-operation mechanisms (see table 2).  

RES share in gross 
final energy 
demand by 2020 
- with impact of 
RES cooperation 

Member State 

Belgium 

Bulgaria 

Czechia 

Denmark 

Germany 

Estonia 

Ireland 

Greece 

Spain 

France 

Croatia 

Italy 

Cyprus 

Latvia 

Lithuania 

Luxembourg 

Hungary 

Malta 

Netherlands 

Austria 

Poland 

Portugal 

Romania 

Slovenia 

Slovakia 

Finland 

Sweden 
United Kingdom38 
EU-27 

EU-plus UK 

Expected RES share 2020 
(CPI scenario) 

RED target 
RES share 
2020 

Deviation of expected 
from RED target RES 
share (CPI scenario) 

Absolute deviation of 
expected from RED 
target RES share (CPI 
scenario) 

Min. 

[%] 

12.0% 

23.8% 

17.6% 

30.9% 

19.8% 

33.0% 

16.6% 

23.4% 

22.0% 

20.0% 

34.6% 

22.3% 

15.9% 

42.4% 

29.2% 

10.1% 

14.3% 

13.4% 

12.5% 

37.8% 

13.7% 

35.9% 

27.8% 

27.7% 

14.7% 

48.6% 

60.9% 

16.2% 

22.8% 

22.1% 

Max. 

[%] 

12.0% 

24.0% 

17.8% 

35.7% 

20.0% 

34.9% 

16.9% 

23.8% 

22.4% 

20.3% 

34.9% 

22.7% 

16.1% 

42.6% 

29.3% 

11.6% 

14.4% 

13.6% 

14.2% 

38.2% 

13.8% 

36.4% 

28.0% 

27.9% 

14.9% 

48.9% 

61.6% 

16.4% 

23.1% 

22.4% 

[%] 

13.0% 

16.0% 

13.0% 

30.0% 

18.0% 

25.0% 

16.0% 

18.0% 

20.0% 

23.0% 

20.0% 

17.0% 

13.0% 

40.0% 

23.0% 

11.0% 

13.0% 

10.0% 

14.0% 

34.0% 

15.0% 

31.0% 

24.0% 

25.0% 

14.0% 

38.0% 

49.0% 

15.0% 

20.0% 

20.0% 

Min. 

[%] 

-7.6% 

48.9% 

35.7% 

3.1% 

9.8% 

31.8% 

4.0% 

30.3% 

9.9% 

Max. 

[%] 

-7.3% 

50.1% 

36.6% 

18.9% 

11.1% 

39.5% 

5.5% 

32.2% 

11.8% 

-12.9% 

-11.8% 

72.8% 

31.3% 

22.3% 

6.0% 

27.0% 

-8.4% 

10.0% 

34.0% 

-10.8% 

11.2% 

-8.7% 

15.8% 

16.0% 

10.6% 

5.3% 

27.8% 

24.3% 

7.9% 

14.2% 

10.4% 

74.5% 

33.4% 

24.2% 

6.5% 

27.3% 

5.1% 

10.5% 

35.7% 

1.2% 

12.4% 

-8.3% 

17.5% 

16.8% 

11.6% 

6.4% 

28.6% 

25.7% 

9.7% 

15.5% 

11.8% 

Min. 

[ktoe] 

-321  

785  

1,132  

140  

3,643  

236  

71  

831  

1,523  

-4,033  

916  

5,522  

44  

96  

325  

-34  

228  

18  

-688  

1,009  

-918  

784  

892  

121  

71  

2,697  

3,914  

1,391  

Max. 

[ktoe] 

-303  

790  

1,136  

844  

4,041  

289  

95  

862  

1,763  

-3,585  

919  

5,732  

47  

101  

328  

21  

236  

18  

74  

1,099  

-859  

847  

921  

129  

84  

2,721  

4,058  

1,649  

19,751*  

21,661*  

21,142*  

23,309*  

Table  2:  Expected  and  required  RES  shares  in  2020  including  cooperation  mechanisms 
Source: Navigant 202039 

38 The  rights  and  obligations  of  a  Member  State  apply  to  the  UK  until  the  end  of  the  transition  period  on  31 
December 2020 

11 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
                                                           
The table 2 shows that with the expected EU 27 RES deployments there is a considerable 
margin for the Member States to establish statistical transfer agreements. The surplus 
is  at  least  19.7  Mtoe  (229  TWh).    On  basis  of  the  energy  demand  projections  from  the 
modelling, RES deployment is expected to increase by 19.2-21.7 Mtoe in 2018-2020. 

Modelling has further been performed specifically for the transport sector in order to assess 
expected progress  on the basis of  current  policies and demand trends taking  account  of the 
Covid-19 pandemic.  

Figure 4: Expected RES-T share in 2020 vs. binding national RED RES-T sector target and 
NECP baseline (%) (source: Navigant) 

The overall EU level is expected to be around 2% above the 10% level by 2020 and 16 of 
27 Member States are  expected  to  meet  (and over-succeed)  their binding RED RES-T 
sector target under all assessed circumstances. On the top of that list is Sweden, followed 
by  Finland,  the  Netherlands,  Ireland,    Malta,  Croatia,  and  Portugal,  all  showing  a  surplus 
larger  than  50%  compared  to  the  target.  Other  Member  States  where  RES-T  target 
achievement appears likely are Belgium, Germany, Greece, France, Italy, Hungary, Austria, 
Romania  and  Slovenia.  The  remaining  11  Member  States  are  not  expected  to  meet  their 
binding  RED  RES-T  sector  target  with  the  current  policies  although  3  Member  States 
(Denmark, Spain, and Poland) are less than 0.5% away from the target. The Member States 
that are found to be further away are Estonia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, and Lithuania – all with 
deficits larger than 25%.  

Given that the EU level is well above 10% binding RES-T target, the Member States should 
consider  the  use  of  statistical  transfers  for  the  transport  sector,  as  enabled  under  the  ILUC 
Directive. 

39 Navigant  (2020): Technical assistance in realisation of the 5th report on progress of renewable energy in the 
EU - Task 1-2. Service contract: ENER/C1/ 2019-478 [DOI 10.2833/325152] 

12 

 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
4.  Developments in streamlining administrative procedures 

In their 5th national renewable energy progress reports, Member States report on measures to 
streamline  administrative  procedures  for  renewable  energy  projects  (pursuant  article  13  of 
RED  I).  According  to  external  analysis 40,  in  global  terms,  a  large  share  of  the  relevant 
measures in the REDI have been successfully implemented across the Member States. These 
measures 
include,  amongst  others:  facilitated  procedures  for  small-scale  projects, 
requirements on system operators to provide cost estimates and other necessary information, 
requirements  on  the  distribution  of  costs  of  grid  development  and  grid  connection  of 
renewable energy, consideration of RES-E in the national network development plan, and the 
existence of support schemes promoting the use of renewable energy. 

The  following  examples  of  positive  developments  in  individual  Member  States  are  among 
those identified in the technical analysis41:   

  Denmark 

o  a  one-stop  shop  for  offshore  wind  turbines  has  simplified  the  administrative 

burden for the approval of offshore wind farms; 

o  coordination between all relevant authorities in the licensing process is handled 

centrally by the Danish Energy Agency; and  

o 

licences  are  prepared  in  advance  and  can  be  issued  once  the  environmental 
impact assessment of the winning tenderer for the project has been approved; 

  since  2018,  Bulgaria  has  run  a  single  information  and  services  web  portal  for  the 

submission of electronic applications; 

  Germany  has  eased  administration  and  reporting  by  introducing  a  comprehensive 

database with all master data from the electricity and gas markets; 

  Sweden  

o 

the application forms for solar PV investment aid have been simplified; 

o  e-applications have been facilitated; 

o 

the requirement for follow-up has been abolished; and  

o  dialogue  between  the  government  agencies  that  administer  the  aid  has  been 

improved; and 

 

the Netherlands aims to: 

o  speed up spatial planning with an Environment Act entering into force in 2021; 

and 

40 Navigant (2020): Technical assistance in realisation of the 5th report on progress of renewable energy in the 
EU - Task 1-2. Service contract: ENER/C1/ 2019-478  [DOI 10.2833/325152] 
41 More  details  can  be  found  in:  Navigant  (2020):  Technical  assistance  in  realisation  of  the  5th  report  on 
progress  of  renewable  energy  in  the  EU  -  Task  1-2.  Service  contract:  ENER/C1/  2019-478   
  [DOI 
10.2833/325152] 

13 

 
 
                                                           
o  package plans and permits to reduce costs. 

However,  also  some  barriers  remain.  While  progress  has  already  been  made  in  the  past, 
administrative procedures across all sectors can be even further streamlined in many Member 
States.  Also,  authorisation  procedures  have  room  for  further  simplification,  and  the  time 
required for processing permits could be reduced. The transposition of RED II by June 30th 
2021, require overall further enhancement of these procedures.   

In the electricity sector, spatial and environmental planning requirements hamper progress in 
some  Member  States.  In  the  heating  &  cooling  sector,  the  barriers  are  mainly  due  to 
shortcomings affecting the capacities of district heating networks, while the transport sector 
mainly sees barriers arising from the lack of adequate infrastructure for electric vehicles and 
market  uncertainty  created  by  policy  changes  in  the  field  of  biofuels.  The  integration  of 
increasing RES capacities in the grid is also a persistent challenge for most Member States. 
The barriers arise mainly from the high cost of grid connection and the lack of  certainty in 
grid development scenarios and transparency in the connection procedures 

4. ASSESSMENT OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF BIOFUELS42 

1.  Overview of biofuel consumption in the EU 

In 2018, the EU consumption of sustainable biofuels amounted to 16,597 ktoe of which 3,905 
ktoe (24%) were Annex IX biofuels43 and 12,692 ktoe (76%) were other compliant biofuels.  

Most  biofuels  consumed  in  the  EU  constitute  of  biodiesel  (77%,  FAME  or  HVO)  or 
bioethanol  (16%) 44 .  Other  liquid  biofuels  (6%)  are  not  specified.  About  59%  of  the 
feedstock  used  for  biodiesel  consumed  in  the  EU  in  2018  was  imported  or  produced 
from imported feedstock, while 41% came from EU feedstock, mainly rapeseed (26%), 
used  cooking  oil  (8%)  and  animal  fat  (5%).  The  main  non-EU  countries  of  origin  are 
Indonesia  (17%)  and  Malaysia  (8%),  whose  palm  oil  is  used  for  biodiesel  in  the  EU,  and 
Argentina (9%) which exports biodiesel made from soybeans (see Table 3). 

42 The  main  source  for  the  data  and  assessment  in  this  section:  “Technical  assistance  in  realisation  of  the  5th 
report on progress of renewable energy in the EU” – Task 3 [DOI 10.2833/428247] and 4 [DOI 10.2833/10640].    
Produced under service contract ENER/C1/ 2019-478 by “Navigant – A Guidehouse Company”. 
43 “Annex IX biofuels” cover biofuels produced from feedstock listed in Annex IX of RED II. 
44 Source: Eurostat nrg_bal_c. The terms biodiesel and bioethanol refer to the physical composition of the fuel. 
Biodiesel is a type of fuel that can be blended with diesel. The main types of biodiesel are Fatty Acid Methyl 
Ester  (FAME)  and  Hydrotreated  Vegetable  Oil  (HVO).  Ethanol  is  the  chemical  name  of  what  is  commonly 
known as alcohol. It can be blended with gasoline. These terms have no relation to the sustainability of biofuels, 
and are also unrelated to the categories “compliant biofuels” or “Annex IX biofuels”. 

14 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Rapeseed 

Palm oil 

Soybean 

Use 
cooking oil 
(UCO) 

Animal fat  Other, 

Total (%) 

Total 
(ktoe) 

pine/tall 
oils, fatty 
acids, 
sunflower 
oil 
1% 

5% 

1% 

8% 

3% 
2% 

15% 
7% 

2% 
1% 
1% 

26% 
2% 
2% 

EU 
Australia 
Ukraine 
Canada 
Indonesia 
Malaysia 
USA 
Brazil 
China 
Argentina 
Other 
Unknown 
Total (%) 
Total 
(ktoe) 
1) Small fraction of rapeseed imports is reported in the Eurostat [EU trade since 1988 by CN8 [DS-016890]] as import from countries and 
territories not specified for commercial or military reasons 
2) Smaller fractions of palm oil-based biodiesel are estimated to originate from amongst others Honduras (0.3%), Guatemala (0.1%) and 
Colombia (0.1%) 
3) Smaller fractions of UCO biodiesel are estimated to originate from amongst others Saudi Arabia (0.5%), Japan (0.3%), Russia (0.3%) 

5,871  
308  
362  
96  
2,382  
1,082  
580  
266  
527  
1,342  
707  
671  

41% 
2% 
3% 
1% 
17% 
8% 
4% 
2% 
4% 
9% 
5% 
5% 
100% 

1%1) 
32% 
4,502  

1% 
4% 
6% 
921  

19% 
2,678  

23% 
3,208  

15% 
2,193  

5% 
693  

14,194  

3%3) 

1%2) 

4% 

9% 

Table 3: Origin of feedstock for biodiesel consumed in the EU (2018, % and ktoe). Source: Navigant 
analysis 

Ethanol consumed in the EU is produced mainly from EU feedstock (73%), including from 
wheat  (34%),  maize  (24%)  and  sugar  beet  (14%)  and  only  a  small  amount  from  cellulosic 
ethanol.  Non-EU  feedstock  accounts  for  about  27%  of  the  EU  bioethanol  market,  mainly 
maize originating in Ukraine, Brazil, the United States and Canada (see Table 4). 

Sugar 
cane 

Sugar 
beet 
14% 

Cellulosic  Unknown/other 

0% 

Wheat  Maize  Barley  Rye  Triticale 

34% 
0% 

0% 
0% 
1% 

0% 

24% 
4% 
2% 
1% 
2% 
0% 

1% 

1% 

2% 
1% 

37% 
1,101  

2% 
34% 
2% 
1,016   70  

3% 
3% 
79  

5% 
5% 
136  

14% 
425  

4% 
116  

0% 
8  

EU 
Ukraine 
Brazil 
Canada 
USA 
Russia 
Pakistan 
Other 
Unknown 
Total (%) 
Total 
(ktoe) 

0% 

2% 

2% 
54  

Total 
(%) 
73% 
4.5% 
2.6% 
0.8% 
2.2% 
1.6% 
1.6% 
4.0% 
9% 
100% 

Total 
(ktoe) 
2,199 
134  
79  
24  
68  
50  
49  
119  
285  

3,006  

Table  4:  Origin  of  feedstock  for  bioethanol  consumed  in  the  EU  (2018,  %  and  ktoe).  Source: 
Navigant analysis 

15 

 
 
 
  
  
 
  
 
  
  
  
 
 
  
  
 
  
 
 
  
 
  
 
  
  
  
 
  
  
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
  
  
 
 
 
  
  
 
  
 
  
  
 
 
  
  
  
 
  
  
  
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
 
Besides biodiesel and bioethanol, a small amount of biogas is consumed in road transport in 
Sweden (118 ktoe) and Germany (33 ktoe). 

Solid 
biofuels 

Biogas 

Bio 
gasoline 

Biodiesel 

Bio jet 
kerosene 

Total 

Other 
liquid 
biofuels 
0.7  
0.0  
0.0  

Total 
liquid 
biofuels 
16,627.8  
26.3  
0.0  

- 

2.0  

0.0  

- 
- 
0.0  

- 
0.0  
- 

153.8  
0.0  
- 

2,997.2  
0.0  
0.0  

13,629.9  
26.3  
0.0  

Road 
Rail 
Domestic 
aviation 
Domestic 
navigation2) 
Non-specified 
transport 
Total 
13,666.7  
1)  Eurostat  categories  “charcoal”  and  “municipal  solid  waste”  are  excluded  from  the  table,  as  they  are  not  consumed  in  transport 
according to Eurostat nrg_bal_c. Eurostat category “consumption in pipeline transport” consumes no biofuels and has been excluded from 
the table. Total of liquid biofuels is the total of bio gasoline, biodiesels, other liquid biofuels and bio jet kerosene. Unlikely combinations 
(e.g.  solid  biofuels  in  aviation)  are  indicated  with  “-”.  2)  Domestic  navigation  includes  all  the  quantities  delivered  to  vessels  of  all  flags 
within Europe as well as inland navigation and yachting. 

16,781.7  
26.3  
0.0  

16,820.5  

16,666.6  

2,999.2  

153.8  

5.0  

5.6  

0.0  

0.0  

6.9  

6.9  

0.0  

0.0  

0.0  

0.0  

0.0  

5.6  

5.6  

0.7  

- 

- 

Table  5 :  Total  final  bioenergy  consumption  in  EU  transport  sub-sectors  (2018,  ktoe).  Source: 
[Eurostat nrg_bal_c]1) 

2.  Impacts of biofuels consumed in the EU  

It is estimated that 7.4 Mha of land was required for the production of crops for EU biofuel 
consumption  in  201845.  Of  that  amount,  3.4  Mha  (46%)  are  located  within  the  EU  and  3.8 
Mha (51%) are located in third countries. The remaining 0.2 Mha (3%) was for barley, rye 
and  triticale  sourced  from  unknown  countries.  The  total  amount  of  cropland  dedicated  to 
biofuel production in the EU was 3% (on the basis of an estimate of total EU cropland of 117 
Mha),  with  rapeseed  accounting  for  72%  of  the  total  land  used  for  biofuels  production.  In 
2018,  land  use  for  biofuels  consumed  in  the  EU  made  up  0.5  %  of  global  land  use  for  the 
production of crops used for biofuels. The land use for biofuels consumed in the EU accounts 
for 8.5% of the global land use for the production of rapeseed and 5.2% in case of palm oil. 
For most of the non-EU countries, it is estimated that less than 1% of their total cropland was 
used  for  the  extraction  of  feedstock  to  be  used  in  the  production  of  biofuels  produced  or 
consumed in the EU.  

In  recent  years, no  correlation  has been observed between  food prices and biofuel  demand. 
Any impact on food prices is small compared to  other dynamics in the global food market. 
Most  Member  States  did  not  observe  any  impacts  on  prices  due  to  increased  bioenergy 
demand within their countries. The last time food prices increased significantly was between 
2006 and 2008 and in 2011. Since 2011, global food prices have fallen back to 2010 levels. In 
literature46, causes other than biofuel production were identified for increased food prices in 

45 In  the  calculation  of  land  use  for  crops  used  to  produce  biofuels,  the  amount  of  biofuel  produced  from  a 
specific  crop  type  was  converted  to  the  amount  of  feedstock  needed  to  produce  that  amount  of  biofuel,  also 
considering by-products. 
46 Ecofys,  2013,  Biofuels  and  food  security;  Filip,  Ondrej,  et  al.,  2019,  Food  versus  fuel:  An  updated  and 
expanded evidence 

16 

 
 
  
                                                           
the period of the food price spikes in 2006–2008 and 2011. It must be noted, however, that 
between 2008 and 2016, growing global demand for food and feed crops was requiring the 
agricultural sector to constantly increase production, which was achieved by both increasing 
yields  and  by  an  expanding  agricultural  area.  It  is  estimated  that  the  biofuels  industry 
employed 208,000 people in 2018, being the third largest renewable energy job creator after 
wind  energy  and  solid  biomass  (314,000  and  387,000).  Countries  with  the  greatest 
employment  are  Romania  (40,000  jobs)  and  Poland  (41,200  jobs)  due  to  their  large 
agricultural  land  area.  France  is  the  third  largest  (29,100  jobs)  as  it  has  both  biofuel 
production facilities and feedstock production. 

The  cultivation  of  feedstock  used  for  the  production  of  biofuels  consumed  in  the  EU  can 
potentially  result  in  negative  environmental  impacts.  Apart  from  indirect  impacts  these 
effects are usually site-specific and depend on the agricultural practices and are comparable 
with  the  impact  of  crops  produced  for  other  uses47.  These  negative  environmental  impacts 
include  eutrophication  of  water  bodies,  water  scarcity,  soil  erosion,  soil  compaction,  air 
pollution, habitat loss and biodiversity loss. Impacts such as the conversion of land with high 
carbon stock and land of high biodiversity value are prohibited by the sustainability criteria. 
In their Progress Reports, most Member States point to limited cultivation of feedstock used 
in  biofuel  production  compared  to  total  agricultural  activities,  and  consider  therefore  that 
associated  environmental  impacts  are  low.  Several  Member  States  point  out  that  all 
agricultural  production  is  regulated  with  respect  to  environmental  impacts  and  therefore 
consider  that  no  more  impacts  should  be  expected  from  biofuel  crop  production  than  from 
other crop production.  

According to information reported by Member States, total  emission savings from the 
use  of  renewables  in  transport  in  the  EU  amounted  to  45.6  Mt  CO2eq  in  2018.  The 
Member State reports indicate total GHG emission savings from transport and do not explain 
the  roles  of  renewable  electricity  and  (different  types  of)  biofuels.  However,  given  the 
overwhelming  share  of  biofuels  in  the  RES-T  (89%),  it  is  reasonable  to  assume  that  the 
emission savings result largely from the use of biofuels. Taking into account the provisional 
estimated  ILUC  emission factors set  out  in  the RED, results  in  total  emission  savings  from 
the use of biofuels in transport of 24 Mt CO2eq (with a range from 18.8 to 33.8 Mt)48. While 
the  level  of  ILUC  emissions  depends  on  a  variety  of  factors 49 and  cannot  be  measured 
precisely,  the  results  show  that  the  contribution  of  biofuels  from  food  and  feed  crops  for 
decarbonisation is limited and their use for energy production – whether produced in the EU 
or  imported  –  should  be  minimised.  Against  this  background,  RED  II  limits  the  amount  of 
biofuels produced from food and feed crops that can be counted towards the overall share of 
renewables  and  the  share  of  renewables  in  transport  and  foresees  a  gradual  phasing  out  of 

47  It  should  however  be  noted  that  neither  site-specific  data  nor  data  related  specifically  to  the  local 
environmental impacts of cultivation of feedstocks for biofuel production are available. 
48The impact of ILUC is calculated on the basis of the provisional estimated indirect land-use change emissions 
from biofuel, bioliquid and biomass fuel feedstock (g CO2eq/MJ) in Annex VIII of Directive (EU) 2018/2001.  
49 The provisional estimated ILUC factors were for instance based on a scenario assuming a substantial increase 
in the level of consumption, which did not materialise.    

17 

 
 
                                                           
biofuels with high ILUC risk. The Directive, however, makes it possible to exempt from the 
phase out those fuels that are certified as low ILUC-risk.  

To  implement  this  approach,  on  13  March  2019  the  Commission  adopted  a  Delegated  Act 
setting  out  rules  for  determining  biofuels  which  have  a  high  ILUC-risk  and  certification  of 
low-ILUC-risk biofuels,50 which identifies palm oil as a high ILUC-risk feedstock. Biofuels 
produced from palm oil would therefore be subject to the gradual phase out unless they meet 
the strict criteria for low ILUC-risk fuels. In 2021, the Commission will review the data on 
biofuels with high ILUC-risk and establish a trajectory for their gradual phase out by 2030.  

More generally, the EU has decided to minimise the use of food and feed crop based biofuels 
and to focus in future on the promotion of advanced biofuels and other low carbon fuels, such 
as  renewable  electricity,  recycled  carbon  fuels  and  renewable  liquid  and  gaseous  transport 
fuels  of non-biological  origin.  In 2018, advanced biofuels  accounted for  828 ktoe (21%) of 
the 3,905 ktoe of Annex IX biofuels, which corresponds to a biofuels market share of 5% (of 
16,597 ktoe). This  share has grown significantly in  the recent  past  and is expected to  grow 
further in the future. The Commission will continue to promote the development of advanced 
biofuels  including by  exploring sources for potential  new feedstocks  and by supporting the 
commercialisation  of  technologies  to  convert  feedstocks  available  at  scale,  in  particular 
wastes and residues.  

3.  Operation of the voluntary schemes recognised by the Commission  

RED  I51,  and  from  July  2021  RED  II,  empower  the  Commission  to  recognise  certification 
schemes,  referred  to  as  voluntary  schemes,  which  operators  can  use  to  demonstrate 
compliance  with  the  sustainability  and  GHG  saving  criteria  of  the  Directive.  To  date,  13 
voluntary schemes have been recognised for this purpose52. Under the schemes, Member 
States  are  required  to  accept  the  evidence  regarding  the  sustainability  criteria  obtained  by 
operators  participating  in  these  schemes.  This  greatly  facilitates  the  implementation  of  the 
sustainability  criteria  as  it  allows  operators  to  provide  the  required  evidence  following  a 
single procedure in all Member States. Each voluntary scheme on which a decision has been 
adopted  and  which  has  been  in  operation  for  the  past  twelve  months  is  required  to  submit 
annual reports to the Commission.  

Over  the  last  few  years,  voluntary  schemes  have  become  the  main  tool  to  demonstrate 
compliance with the EU biofuel sustainability criteria. In 2019, 21,876 kilotons (kt) of liquid 
biofuels  (including  pure  vegetable  oil),  147,357  thousand  m3  of  biomethane  (equivalent  to 
around  106  kt),  and  219,266  kt  of  feedstock  were  certified  to  comply  with  the  EU 
sustainability criteria as set out in Articles 17(2)-(5) of the Renewable Energy Directive.53 

50 C(2019) 2055 final. 
51 Directive 2009/28/EC 30 (RED I) will be repealed on 30 June 2021. 
52 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/topics/renewable-energy/biofuels/voluntary-schemes_en 
53 Data for liquid biofuels has been excluded from one voluntary scheme due to identified inconsistencies. 

18 

 
 
                                                           
Looking in more detail at certified liquid biofuels, 12,099 kt (55% of the total) was biodiesel 
and  6,340  kt  (29%)  was  bioethanol.  The  rest  was  made  up  of  Hydrotreated  Vegetable  Oil 
(HVO) biofuels  (2,671 kt,  12%), pure vegetable  oil (380 kt,  1.7%)  and other fuels  (385 kt, 
1.8%). The main certified feedstocks used for biofuels were rapeseed (24%), palm oil (16%), 
used cooking oil (13%), sugarcane (12%) and maize (10%).  

The  Commission  only  recognises  schemes  that  meet  adequate  standards  of  reliability, 
transparency and independent auditing. For this  purpose, it conducts a thorough assessment 
of  the  voluntary  schemes  requesting  recognition54.  This  ensures  that,  among  other  things: 
feedstock  producers  comply  with  the  sustainability  criteria  of  the  Directive,  information  on 
sustainability characteristics is traceable to the origin of the feedstock, companies are audited 
before  they  start  to  participate  in  the  scheme,  retrospective  audits  take  place  regularly  and 
auditors are external and independent.  

In recent years, the governance of the voluntary schemes has been under increasing scrutiny, 
for  example  by  the  European  Court  of  Auditors55.  In  order  to  address  these  concerns  and 
guarantee robust implementation, Article 30 of RED II lays down strengthened rules for the 
verification  of  the  bioenergy  sustainability  criteria,  including  stronger  national  and  EU 
oversight of voluntary schemes and third party auditing. In addition, in 2021, the Commission 
will adopt detailed implementing rules on adequate standards of reliability, transparency and 
independent  auditing  and  require  all  recognised  voluntary  schemes  to  apply  them.  It  is 
currently  working  on 
things  harmonise 
implementation  of  the  mass  balance  system  and  further  strengthen  the  requirements  for 
scheme  governance,  transparency  and  audits.  Finally,  the  Commission  will  establish  a 
European database to improve the tracing of sustainable biofuels. 

these  standards,  which  will  among  other 

54 Details on the recognition process of voluntary schemes can be found on the following Commission website: 
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/topics/renewable-energy/biofuels/voluntary-schemes_en 
55 European Court of Auditors (ECA), 2016, Special report No 18/2016: The EU system for the certification of 
sustainable biofuels. 

19 

 
 
                                                           
Voluntary scheme 
Name 
International Sustainability 
and Carbon Certification 
(ISCC) 
Bonsucro EU 
Roundtable on Sustainable 
Biomaterial EU RED (RSB EU 
RED) 
RTRS EU RED 
U.S. Soybean Sustainability 
Assurance Protocol (SSAP) 
Biomass Biofuels voluntary 
scheme (2BSvs) 
Red Tractor Farm Assurance 
Combinable Crops & Sugar 
Beet (Red Tractor) 
REDcert 
Better Biomass 
KZR INiG System 
Trade Assurance Scheme for 
Combinable Crops (TASC) 

Universal Feed Assurance 
Scheme(UFAS) 

Roundtable on Sustainable 
Palm Oil RED (RSPO RED) 

Feedstock type 

Scope 
Feedstock origin 

Wide range of feedstocks 

Global 

Supply chain covered 

Full supply chain 

Sugar cane 
Wide range of feedstocks 

Global 
Global 

Full supply chain 
Full supply chain 

Soy 
Soy 

Global 
US 

Wide range of feedstocks 

Global 

Cereals, oilseeds, sugar beet  UK 

Wide range of feedstocks 
Wide range of feedstocks 
Wide range of feedstocks 
Combinable crops, such as 
cereals, oilseeds and sugar 
beet 
Feed ingredients and 
compound feeds as well as 
combinable crops 
Oil palm 

Europe 
Global 
Europe 
UK 

UK 

Global 

Full supply chain 
From cultivation to place of 
export 
Full supply chain 

Until the first feedstock 
delivery point 

Full supply chain 
Full supply chain 
Full supply chain 
Chain of custody from farm 
gate to first processor 

Chain of custody from farm 
gate to first processor 

Full supply chain 

Table 6: Voluntary schemes currently recognised by the Commission 

5. CONCLUSIONS 

The  2020  renewable  energy  targets  will  have  to  be  met  in  the  context  of  the  Covid-19 
pandemic where society at large as well as the energy sector has been impacted by the most 
serious health and economic crisis in decades. This report confirms that the EU is on track 
for  reaching  its  renewable  energy  targets  for  2020.  In  2018,  the  share  of  renewable 
energy  in  the  EU  energy  mix  has  reached  18%  (18.9  %  for  EU-27).  Investments  in 
renewable energy are increasingly driven by the market and the share of public subsidies is 
falling  in  particular  for  the  new  projects56.  This  has  been  triggered  by  the  significant  cost 
reductions  in  renewable  energy  technologies,  the  decrease  of  subsidies  through  more 
competitive  support  schemes  and  exemplified  by  the  numerous  zero  or  low  cost  auction 
results in several European countries. 

In  2018,  twelve  Member  States  already  have  a  renewable  energy  share  above  their 
respective 2020 targets. Eleven other Member States met or exceeded their RED I average 
indicative  trajectory  for  2017-2018.  However,  five  Member  States  (France,  Ireland,  the 
Netherlands, Poland and Slovenia) failed to do so.  

56 Energy subsidies in the EU (annex to the State of the Energy Union Report, COM(2020)950) 

20 

 
 
 
 
                                                           
As regards the prospects for the 2020 renewable energy target achievement, recent modelling 
projects  the  EU-27  to  reach  a  renewable  energy  share  between  22.8  %  and  23.1%57.  This 
corresponds  to  an  expected  absolute  RES  deployment  increase  of  19.2-21.7  Mtoe  between 
2018 and 2020. The impact  of the Covid-19 pandemic on the energy demand is  significant 
and this exceptional situation has the consequence that the projected renewable energy shares 
for 2020 increase overall. However, some of these increases might not be sustained over time 
once economic activity is fully recovered. 

The  vast  majority  of  Member  States  will  meet  their  targets,  but  three  Member  States 
(Belgium,  France,  and  Poland)  are  at  severe  risk  of  failing  to  do  so.  Furthermore,  2 
Member States  (The Netherlands and Luxembourg) are at moderate risk of not meeting the 
target.  

In view of the analysis in this report:  

  Member  States  are  strongly  encouraged  to  explore  all  possible  options  to  use 
cooperation mechanisms, notably statistical transfers, as the solution to address the 
situation with the few weeks left till the end of 2020 

  The European Commission is ready to support the process e.g. through supporting 
the  political  dialogue  of  Member  States,  offering  technical  guidance  and  the  Union 
Renewable development platform for statistical transfers that is being prepared.  
  The continued deployment of renewables is of utmost importance. In particular in 
light of the need to stay above the 2020 baseline in the National Energy and Climate 
Plans as established by the Clean Energy Package and the need to advance towards 
the 2030 as well as 2050 objectives.  

  The Recovery and Resilience Plans that Member States should prepare setting out 
their reform and investment agendas for the subsequent four years provide a unique 
opportunity  for  boosting  renewable  energy  deployment  and  contribute  to  both 
economic recovery and the European Green Deal objectives. 

  The  European  Commission  will  continue  monitoring  developments  and  as 
required by the Energy Governance Regulation  assess final target compliance based 
on reports from Member States by 30th April 2022 with the actual 2020 data. 

For  the  transport  sector,  where  all  Member  States  shall  achieve  at  least  a  10%  share  of 
renewable energy, only two Member States Finland and Sweden have managed to exceed this 
level in 2018. The modelling for 2020 show a somewhat improved picture with an EU RES-
Transport share of 12.258% and 16 Member States achieving or exceeding the target. Meeting 
the target is a legal obligation, so the Commission urges the 11 remaining Member States 
to take appropriate action via national deployment or cooperation mechanisms.  

57 The EU-plus UK is 22.1 %-22,4% 
58 EU plus UK is 12.9% 

21