REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2021-2025)
Date: 2020-06-30
Institutions: Directorate-General for Budget, European Commission
Subjects: EU budget, EU expenditure, Member States' contribution, budget policy, budgetary resources, epidemic, infectious disease, long-term forecast, multiannual financial framework, own resources

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 30.6.2020  COM(2020) 298 final  REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget (2021-2025)  
 
 
1. 

INTRODUCTION 

This  report  provides  a  long-term  forecast  of  future  inflows  and  outflows  covering  the  next  five 
years (2021-2025) as required by Article 247(1)(c) of the Financial Regulation1. The analysis takes 
into  account  the  principles  and  terms  set  out  in  the  Agreement  on  the  withdrawal  of  the  United 
Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic 
Energy Community2 (thereafter ‘Withdrawal Agreement’). 

The  socioeconomic  circumstances  in  the  EU  have  significantly  deteriorated  as  a  result  of  the 
COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, on 27 May 20203, the Commission presented a revised proposal 
for  a  reinforced  Multiannual  Financial  Framework  (MFF)  2021-2027  and  an  ambitious  recovery 
plan. This forecast report provides an estimate of the expenditure outflows under the ceilings of the 
next Multiannual Financial Framework and corresponding revenue inflows over the next five years 
based on the revised MFF proposal of May 2020.  

Compared  to  the  forecast  of  last  year4  which  covered  the  period  2020-2024,  this  new  forecast 
captures  one  additional  year  (2025).  The  estimates  for  the  payments  on  the  commitments  of  the 
current  financial  framework  are  updated  to  take  account  of  the  actual  implementation  results  for 
2019,  the 2020 budget with the Amending Budgets N°1 and N°2 and the Draft Amending budgets 
N°3 to N°65, and the Draft Budget for 20216.  

The payments in relation to the post-2021 commitments, given that the negotiations for the 2021-
2027  Multiannual  Financial  Framework  are  still  on-going,  are  consistent  with  the  parameters 
resulting from the state of negotiations and from the Commission proposal for the future financial 
period as revised this year. 

2. 

RESULTS OF THE FORECAST 

Overall, in the first five years of the next financial framework, the payments are expected to reach 
EUR 866 billion. This  amount is  not  evenly distributed across the  years but  follows the expected 
evolution of: 1) the phasing-in of payments for the new spending programmes (around 67% of the 
5-year  payments’  total)  and  2)  the  payments  for  outstanding  commitments  from  the  2014-2020 
period (the remaining 33% of the payments). 

2.1.  Payments in relation to new commitments 

The forecast payments, in relation to the commitments that will be made over the years 2021-2025, 
are aligned to the amounts by programme and by year as presented in the Commission proposal for 
the  next  Multiannual  Financial  Framework  of  27  May  2020.  The  underlying  assumptions  of  the 
forecast remain consistent with those of the previous year’s report and the Commission proposal for 

1 Financial Regulation applicable to the general budget of the Union and its rules of application, Regulation (EU, 
Euratom) 2018/1046 of 30.7.2018. 
2 OJ C66 I, 19.2.2019, p.1. 
3 COM/2020/442 final of 27.5.2020 
4 COM(2019) 305 final of 26.6.2019 
5 N°1 2020/536, OJ L 126, 21.4.2020 , N°2: 2020/537 OJ L 126, 21.4.2020, N°3 COM(2020)180 final of 15.4.2020, 
N°4 COM(2020)190 final of 30.4.2020, N°5 COM(2020)421 final of 3.6.2020, N°6 COM(2020)423 final of 3.6.2020 
6 COM(2020)300 of 24.6.2020 

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the  Multiannual  Financial  Framework  of  2  May  2018.  Progress  on  the  negotiations  for  the  next 
generation of spending has been reflected to the extent possible (see details in Section 3. Forecast 
Assumptions).  

This  is  the  case  especially  for  the  negotiations  relevant  to  the  Common  Provisions  Regulation, 
which  determines  the  implementation  speed  for  cohesion  policy  –  the  biggest  spending  area  that 
makes use of differentiated appropriations. Changes in the implementing modalities of the cohesion 
policy  funds  (e.g.  decommitment  rule,  pre-financing  rates,  clearance  of  pre-financing,  retention 
rate)  compared to  the  assumptions used for the  present  forecast  would significantly influence the 
expected level of payments for the whole EU budget.  

Accordingly, a more precise update of the forecast will only be possible after the conclusion of the 
negotiations on the next financial framework and accompanying sector-specific legislation. 

2.2.  Payments on pre-2021 commitments 

The Commission’s forecast for payments stemming from current commitments (including those yet 
to  be  made  in  2020)  takes  into  account  the  proposals  for  mobilising  the  2020  EU  budget  in 
response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The estimates for the years 2021-2025 include the payments 
resulting  from  reinforcements  of  programmes  in  2020  as  provided  by  the  Corona  Response 
Investment  Initiatives (CRII and CRII+) packages and the Draft Amending Budget N°6. Some of 
these proposals imply frontloading payments to earlier years, while others might require additional 
amounts, not previously forecast. 

In  particular,  the  CRII  and  CRII+  initiatives  are  projected  to  accelerate  cohesion  policy 
implementation,  thereby  increasing  payment  needs  in  2020  and  2021  and  resulting  in  lower 
payment needs in 2024 and 2025. Based on the proposal for one-off lump sum income support to 
farmers the payment needs under 2014-2020 Rural Development will also increase in 2021 with a 
corresponding decrease in 2024.  

The  COVID-19  response  measures  as  proposed  in  the  revision  of  the  Mutiannual  Financial 
Framework Regulation 2014-2020 and the related Draft Amending Budget N°6 will bring in 2020 
additional commitments of EUR 11.5 billion and EUR 6.5 billion in payments. The remaing EUR 5 
billion stemming from that proposal (EUR 2.5 billion under REACT EU and EUR 2.5 billion under 
the  new  Solvency  support  window  within  the  European  Fund  for  Strategic  Investments)  will  be 
paid over 2021-2025, increasing the payment needs compared to last year’s forecast.  

Any deviations in the adopted amounts for the above Commission proposals in combination with 
changes  in  the  implementing  modalities  for  the  cohesion  policy  funds  may  have  an  impact  on 
payment needs and will have to be taken into account in the negotiations of the payment ceilings 
for the next financial framework. 

2.3. Payments in 2021 

The level of payments in 2021 is of particular importance. The present report is fully in line with 
the  Draft  Budget  proposal  for  2021,  which  is  based  on  the  parameters  of  the  Commission’s 
proposals, in particular as regards pre-financing rates for cohesion policy funds both for 2014-2020 
(1%  pre-financing  rate)  and  for  2021-2027  (0,5%  pre-financing  rate).  An  increase  of  those  rates 
would have an immediate effect on the payment needs in 2021. A delayed start of the 2021-2027 

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programmes  may  result  in  some  of  the  pre-financing  for  the  new  generation  of  cohesion  policy 
being postponed to 2022. 

2.3.1.  De-commitments 

The overall amount of de-commitments forecast for 2021-2025 is EUR 9 billion, entirely related to 
the  programmes  of  the  2014-2020  period  and  earlier.  No  de-commitments  are  expected  for  the 
commitments proposed for the 2021-2027 financial framework. 

The de-commitment levels vary across Headings as the forecast takes into account de-commitments 
already made and de-commitments identified by the time of the Draft Budget 2021 preparation. In 
principle,  de-commitments  are  forecast  for  the  entire  duration  of  the  programming  period.  Since 
there is no automatic de-commitment rule for most programmes and actions, any annual breakdown 
of de-commitments would be highly speculative. To estimate the size of the de-commitments until 
2025, the forecast de-commitments are broken down proportionally to the related annual payments.  

A specific forecast is made for the 2014-2020 European Structural and Investment Funds (ESI) , it 
takes  into  account  the  experience  with  the  closure  of  the  2007-2013  programmes.  The  de-
commitment forecast will be updated when the first closures of the 2014-2020 programmes start. A 
lower actual level of de-commitments would translate into higher payment needs. The exact year of 
de-commitment depends on the specific closure dates for each national programme. Given the n+3 
de-commitment rules in  place, the de-commitments  are likely to  spread over 2024-2026. As only 
2024-2025 is within the scope of this report, the tentative assumption is that roughly two thirds of 
the expected de-commitments of the 2014-2020 ESI Funds would fall in that period.  

Compared  to  last  year’s  report,  the  5-year  de-commitment  estimate  increases  by  around 
EUR 1 billion. This is the combined effect of the higher de-commitment forecast for programmes 
under  2014-2020  Headings  1b  and  2  (an  increase  of  EUR  2.5  billion),  and  decreases  across  the 
other items (a decrease of EUR 1.5 billion).  

The  increase  for  the  2014-2020  Heading  1b  is  the  mechanical  effect  of  including  one  extra  year 
(2025)  which  was  not  covered  by  last  year’s  report.  Similarly,  decommitments  under  2014-2020 
Heading 2 are expected to take place up to 2025 at the latest, as the corresponding closure payment 
is expected to be over by then.  

For the programmes  under 2014-2020 Headings  1a, 3 and 4 the decrease is  a combined effect  of 
updating the assumptions for future years in line with the Draft Budget 2021 and of the shift of the 
reporting  period  by  one  year.  In  2019  EUR 1.3 billion  was  de-committed  under  those  three 
Headings in relation to pre-2014 programmes and this amount is no longer included in the present 
forecast.  

2.3.2.  Evolution of the level of outstanding commitments 

The build-up of outstanding commitments (or RAL for reste-a-liquider) is a natural consequence of 
the  implementation  of  the  EU  budget  with  differentiated  appropriations  and  the  nominally 
increasing volume of the EU budget over the years. The RAL at the start of the reporting period is 
expected to stand at around EUR 308 billion. For comparison, the end-2020 RAL forecast in last 
year’s report stood at EUR 303 billion.  

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This change in the RAL forecast is a result of several elements. At the closure of 2019 the actual 
RAL stood at  EUR 294  billion7. To date, the commitments  under the 2020 budget,  including the 
reinforcements proposed in Draft Amending Budget N°6 stand at EUR 184 billion while payments 
are  at  the  level  of  EUR  161.5  billion.  This  would  result  in  additional  RAL  of  EUR  22  billion 
generated in 2020. Taking into account the projected acceleration of cohesion policy triggered by 
the CRII and CRII+ initiatives, additional payment needs of EUR 8 - 10 billion may arise in 2020. 
For  the  purposes  of  calculating  the  RAL  at  the  end  of  the  year,  an  additional  amount  of  around 
EUR  8  billion  in  payments  is  assumed  to  be  budgeted  later  in  2020.  The  actual  additional  need, 
however,  may  be  quantified  only  after  the  submission  of  Member  States’  own  forecasts  for  the 
implementation of their operational programmes under ESI Funds due by 31 July 2020. 

At the end of 2025, the level of RAL is projected to be around EUR 292 billion, which results in a 
nominal decrease of 5% over the five analysed years. The annual evolution of the RAL volume is 
not even and it develops in function of the ratio of annual payments to annual commitments. Based 
on  the  Commission  proposal  for  the  2021-2027  Multiannual  Financial  Framework,  the  payment 
ceiling over the years 2021-2025 would be slightly higher than the commitment ceiling. This is a 
result  of  accelerating  payments  in  the  first  years  of  the  new  programming  period  as  part  of  the 
COVID-19  response  support  by  the  EU  budget.  No  reduction  in  payment  needs  over  the  years 
2023-2025 is expected, mostly due to the combination of the first automatic de-commitment target 
for  the  new  programmes  under  the  Common  Provision  Regulation  and  the  n+3  de-commitment 
target  for  the  last  tranche  of  the  2014-2020  ESI  Funds  and  the  closure  of  these  programmes. 
Overall,  the  payments  over  the  five  years  covered  by  the  report  would  exceed  the  level  of 
commitments  by  around  EUR 6.6 billion.  Combined  with  the  projected  decommitments  over  the 
same period, this would reverse the trend of growing RAL.  

2.4.  Revenue 

The  EU  budget  is  financed  by  own  resources  and  other  revenue.  The  overall  amount  of  own 
resources  needed  to  finance  the  budget  is  determined  by  total  expenditure  less  other  revenue. 
Accordingly,  the  forecast  of  the  EU  budget  revenue  for  2021-2025  is  based  on  the  principle  that 
expenditure must be matched by revenue; therefore total revenue must equal total expenditure. 

As  of  2021,  in  line  with  the  Withdrawal  Agreement  (part  V),  the  United  Kingdom  will  make  a 
contribution to the EU budget in relation to outstanding commitments of the MFF 2014-2020 and 
previous  financial  perspectives  (RAL  end-2020),  as  well  as  to  the  pension  liabilities  and  other 
components of the financial settlement.  The United Kingdom’s contribution would correspond to 
their share in  the financing of those liabilites.  It  will constitute ‘other  revenue’ to  the EU budget 
that is not Union’s own resource. 

The total own resources of the EU in any given year cannot exceed the Own Resources ceiling. The 
Commission has proposed to increase this ceiling to 1.40% of the Gross National Income of the EU 
Member States as of 1 January 2021 to cater for the mechanical reduction of the nominal amount of 

7 This amount does not include EUR 3.5 billion of RAL generated through contributions from third countries since the 
corresponding payments have already been made available to the EU budget. 

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own resources corresponding to the current ceiling of 1.20% of Union’s GNI due to the withdrawal 
of the United Kingdom and to the economic downturn as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Until 
the new Own Resources Decision enters into force, the current ceiling will continue to apply.  

In nominal terms the 1.20% of the EU’s Gross National Income translates into EUR 168 billion in 
2021. This level would leave a margin of just EUR 2.4 billion between the Own Resources ceiling 
and the proposed payment ceiling. For legal reasons, the ceiling for payment appropriations of the 
multiannual  financial  framework  cannot  exceed  the  Own  Resources  ceiling  and  the  principle  of 
sound  financial  management  requires  in  addition  keeping  of  safety  buffer.  The  Commisison  has 
proposed  to  increase  the  Own  Resources  ceiling  for  the  next  period  to  1,40%  of  the  EU’s  Gross 
National Income and it is essential that the new Own Resources Decision is adopted and approved 
by  the  Member  States  in  accordance  with  their  constitutional  requirements  by  the  end  of  2020. 
Until the new Own Resources ceiling is  formally  in  force, the payment  ceiling  for the  year 2021 
will have to respect the current limitations. 

However,  the  actual  needs  of  own  resources  are  determined  by  the  planned  payments  after 
deducting  the  expected  other  revenue,  not  by  the  payment  ceiling  of  the  multiannual  financial 
framework.  For  2021  the  own  resources  needed  to  finance  the  budget  are  estimated  at 
EUR 155 billion.  It  would  leave  a  de  facto  margin  of  EUR  13  billion  below  the  current  Own 
Resources ceiling of 1.20% Gross National Income for covering the EU’s contingent liabilites and 
other unforeseen needs. 

3. 

FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS  

3.1.  Specific assumptions by main spending elements  

3.1.1.  2014-2020 ESI Funds and cohesion policy funds 2021-2027 

The  payments  forecast  for  the  2014-2020  ESI  Funds  is  based  on  past  experience  of  interim 
payment  claims  submitted  as  a  percentage  of  the  overall  envelope.  Specific  payment  profiles  are 
used  for  each  of  the  funds.  In  addition,  the  implication  on  payments  as  a  result  of  the  corona-
response proposals have also been factored in (see point 2.2. Payments on pre-2021 commitments). 

For  the  2021-2027  cohesion  policy  funds,  the  projected  payments  depend  on  the  assumptions 
behind  key  parameters  for  the  implementation  of  the  policy  which  are  currently  part  of  the 
negotiations  on  the  next  Multiannual  Financial  Framework.  The  current  forecast  is  based  on  the 
parameters  resulting  from  the  latest  state  of  negotiations  (0.5%  pre-financing  for  each  year  from 
2021  to  2026  cleared  at  the  closure  of  programmes,  5%  retention  rate,  no  performance  reserve). 
The  interim  payment  claims’  profiles  were  estimated  to  reflect  the  phasing-in  of  the  n+2  de-
commitment rule, as  amended to  allow for certain derogations for the  first  commitment tranches. 
Further  changes  in  those  parameters  during  the  ongoing  negotiations  would  impact  payments  in 
relation to the 2021-2027 cohesion policy funds. 

3.1.2.  Direct payments and market measures under the Common Agricultural Policy 

As regards the appropriations for the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund, they are mostly non-
differentiated and the bulk related to direct payments to farmers is usually reimbursed to Member 
States during the first months of the following budget year. 

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For Rural Development the proposal for one-off lump sum income support to farmers in the context 
of the EU COVID-19 response has been factored in by advancing payments to 2021. 

3.1.3.  Other programmes and funds 

For  all  other  spending  items  (e.g.  research  and  innovation,  large  scale  infrastructure  projects, 
internal and external policies) the forecasts for the payments on the commitments authorised in the 
current financial framework are based on the Draft Budget 2021 and the accompanying schedules 
of payments by individual budget lines.  

There  is  no  change  in  the  assumptions  used  for  estimating  the  payments  needed  for  the  new 
generation  of  spending  programmes  compared  to  last  year’s  forecast.  The  annual  payment  needs 
have  been  calculated  using  statistical  data  for  the  actual  implementation  over  10  years  of  the 
corresponding  current  programmes  and  their  related  2007-2013  legacy.  For  programmes  with  no 
legacy, the payment estimate is based on the implementation experience of similar type of activities 
adjusted  for  the  specific  elements  of  the  new  programmes.  However,  for  this  year’s  forecast  the 
commitment approprations for each programme, on the basis of which payments are forecast, have 
been  updated  to  reflect  the  revised  Commission  proposal  for  the  next  Multiannual  Financial 
Framework.  

3.1.4.  Administration 

Administrative expenditure (2021-2027  Heading 7) is  based on non-differentiated appropriations; 
the proposed expenditure ceilings for Heading 7 in 2021-2025 are fully transformed into payments. 

The  same  applies  also  for  subsidies  to  decentralised  agencies,  which  are  funded  outside  the 
administrative heading. 

3.2. Assumptions for forecasting revenue 

3.2.1.  Applicable legislation 

The  Commission  has  proposed  new  rules  for  the  own  resources  of  the  Union  through  its  2018 
proposal for Council Decision on the system of Own Resources8. The adoption of the new Decision 
requires  a  unanimous  agreement  of  all  Member  States  and  approval  according  to  national 
constitutional requirements. Once the new Decision enters into force, it will apply as of 1 January 
2021.  If  the  date  of  entry  into  force  is  after  January  2021,  the  Decision  will  have  a  retroactive 
application.  For  that  reason,  the  forecast  of  revenue  presented  in  this  Report  is  based  on  the 
parameters of the 2020 Commission’s proposal for the new Council Decision on the system of Own 
Resources  for  all  years  of  the  reporting  period  (2021-2025).  By  contrast,  the  Draft  Budget  2021 
reflects the parameters of the Own resouces Decision9 of 2014 currently in force. 

8 COM(2018) 325 final of 2.5.2018, as amended by COM(2020) 445 final of 28.5.2020 
9 Council Decision on the system of own resources of the European Union, 2014/335/EU, Euratom: OJ L168, 
4.6.2014, p.105. 

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3.2.2.  Traditional own resources 

Customs duties are projected to grow over the period 2022-2025 at the same rate as nominal gross 
national income of each Member State starting from the level of gross customs duties projected for 
the budget 202110. 

The revenue estimated in the present report assumes that 10% of the customs duties will be retained 
by Member States as collection costs, as in the Commission proposal for Council Decision on the 
system  of  Own  Resources11.  For  reference,  the  current  rate  is  20%.  The  new  rate  is  under 
negotiation  as  part  of  the  2021-2027  Multiannual  Financial  Framework  package.  A  potential 
increase of the retention rate above the Commission’s proposal would lower the level of traditional 
own resources, that would have to be offset by higher national contributions. 

3.2.3.  National contributions and revenue from new own resources 

National contributions (in the form of the gross national income-based own resource and the VAT-
based  own  resource)  and  potential  new  own  resources  fill  the  gap  to  balance  revenue  with  the 
forecast expenditure. 

In May 2018, the Commission proposed to diversify the sources of revenue with a basket of new 
own  resources  that  would  contribute  to  the  EU’s  priorities  such  as  climate  change,  the  circular 
economy and fair taxation. This basket included revenue linked to the Emissions Trading System, a 
national contribution calculated on the basis of non-recycled plastic packaging waste and a resource 
based on a common consolidated corporate tax base. In addition, the Commission announced that it 
would also propose additional new own resources at a later stage during the 2021-2027 period12. 

The  exact  size  of  the  national  contributions  and  the  revenue  from  new  own  resources  will  only 
become  known  when  the  Member  States  have  agreed  on  the  next  long-term  budget  and  Own 
Resources system. 

3.2.4.  Other revenue 

The  other  revenue  to  the  EU  budget  traditionally  comprise  staff  contributions,  revenue  accruing 
from the administrative operation of the institutions, contributions and refunds in connection with 
Union agreements and programmes, interest on late payments and fines, revenue from borrowing 
and  lending  operations,  and  miscellaneous  revenue  –  as  well  as  surpluses  from  previous  years. 
Given  their  inherent  volatility,  most  of  those  components  are  difficult  to  forecast.  Therefore,  the 
amount considered in the 2020 budget (i.e. EUR 2 billion) is assumed to remain nominally constant 
over the period covered by the report (2021-2025). 

As of 2021, in addition to the above mentioned items, the other revenue to the EU budget will also 
include the United Kingdom’s contribution stemming from the Withdrawal Agreement in relation 

10 Including customs duties established by the United Kingdom in November and December 2020, which according to 
Article 10(1) of Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 609/2014 (MAR) are only due by the United Kingdom on 20 January 
2021 and 22 February 2021 respectively. Based on Article 136 (1) and (3)(b) of the Withdrawal Agreement these 
customs duties are still to be considered as own resources for the year 2021. 
11 COM(2018) 325 final of 2.5.2018, as amended by COM(2020) 445 final of 28.5.2020 
12 COM/2020/442 final of 27.5.2020 

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to the outstanding commitments (RAL) and pension obligations, as well as other components of the 
financial settlement, as appropriate13. For the year 2021, the proposed financing of the 2021 Draft 
Budget reflects the contribution from the United Kingdom. 

The  contribution  of  the  United  Kingdom  in  relation  to  outstanding  commitments  under  the  MFF 
2014-2020 and previous financial perspectives14 is established by applying the provisional share of 
the  United  Kindgom,  which  is  defined15  as  the  ratio  between  the  own  resources  to  be  made 
available by the United Kingdom over 2014-2020 and those made available during that period by 
all Member States and the United Kingdom, to the forecast level of payments against the RAL for 
each of the years 2021-2025. The annual contribution of the United Kingdom takes into account the 
payment modalities set in Article 148 of the Withdrawal Agreement. 

As  regards  payments  in  relation  to  pension  liabilities,  no  amount  can  be  forecast  because  the 
contribution  would  be  determined  annually  based  on  the  actual  beneficiaries,  accumulated  post-
employment rights and other specific elements as laid down in Article 142 of the draft Withdrawal 
Agreement. The exception is the pension liability indicated in Article 142.5 which is povisionally 
quantified and included in the United Kindgom’s contribution for 2021-2025. 

4. 

CONCLUSIONS 

This year’s forecast report covers the first five years of the next Multiannual Financial Framework, 
for  which  negotiations  are  still  on-going.  The  payment  forecast  is  therefore  based  on  the  revised 
Commission's proposal for the next financial framework of May 2020 and also the reinforcements 
of  programmes  in  2020  as  provided  by  the  Corona  Response  Investment  Initiatives  (CRII  and 
CRII+)  and Amending budgets N°1 and N°2 and the Draft Amending Budget N°6.  

Based on these proposals, payment in the first years of the new programming period will increase 
compared to last year’s estimates and will reach a level above the proposed commitment ceilings. 
This  will  allow  reversing  the  trend  of  growing  outstanding  commitments  (RAL).  Based  on  the 
Commssion’s proposals, by the end of 2025 the RAL would decrease by 5%.  

Particular  attention  should  be  paid  to  the  payments  in  2021.  An  increase  of  pre-financing  rates 
under cohesion policy would have an immediate effect on the payment needs. However, until the 
current  Own Resources  ceiling of 1.20% Gross  National  Income is  formally  replaced by the new 
one, there would be no space to raise the 2021 payment ceiling beyond the Commission’s proposal 
and therefore the direct impact would be the creation of an abnormal backlog of payments. 

13 All the components of the UK contribution are indicated in the Article 148 of the Withdrawal Agreement. The 
calculations include only the components of the UK contribution which could be quantified at this stage, namely the 
provisional UK contribution in the financing of the payments for prior 2021 RAL and the pensions liabilities under the 
Article 142.5 of the Withdrawal Agreement. 
14 With the exception of outstanding commitments stemming from the proposed Draft Amending Budget 6 to the 2020 
budget. 
15 The United Kingdom's share is defined in the Article 139 of the Withdrawal Agreement. 

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Table 1 – Long-term forecast of future inflows and outflows of the EU budget over 2021-2025  

Annex 1 

In EUR billion, current prices 

OUTFLOWS 

Commitments ceiling 

Payments ceiling 

Commitment appropriations 

Payment appropriations 

of which payments pre-2021 commitments 

1. Single Market, Innovation and Digital 

2. Cohesion and Values  

of which 2a. Economic, social and territorial cohesion 

3. Natural Resources and Environment 
Of which: Market related expenditure and direct 
payments 
4. Migration and Border Management 

5. Resilience, Security and Defence 

6. Neighbourhood and the World 

7. European Public Administration 

of which payments on 2021-2025 commitments* 

1. Single Market, Innovation and Digital 

2. Cohesion and Values  

of which 2a. Economic, social and territorial cohesion 

3. Natural Resources and Environment 
Of which: Market related expenditure and direct 
payments 
4. Migration and Border Management 

5. Resilience, Security and Defence 

6. Neighbourhood and the World 

7. European Public Administration 

Other special instruments** 
Total payment appropriations including special 
instruments 

INFLOWS 
Own Resources ceiling in % of EU Gross National 
Income 
Own Resources ceiling expressed in EUR billion*** 

Total own resources****: 

of which net amount of traditional own resources 
of which national contributions and new own 
resources**** 

Other revenue (incl. provisional UK contribution) 

Total revenue 

DB2021 

164,9 

165,6 

163,1 

161,8 

97,2 
13,4 

57,5 

56,6 

15,9 

0,1 

1,5 

1,3 

7,6 

0,0 

64,7 
4,2 

5,1 

2,1 

40,4 

40,1 

1,2 

0,5 

2,8 

10,4 

1,7 

Commission proposal MFF 2021-2027  
2023 

2022 

2024 

167,1 

170,1 

167,1 

170,1 

82,3 
8,8 

49,9 

49,3 

14,2 

0,1 

1,0 

0,7 

7,7 

0,0 

87,8 
12,4 

7,2 

2,5 

47,1 

41,1 

2,8 

1,3 

5,7 

11,2 

p.m. 

171,8 

174,5 

171,8 

174,5 

52,0 
6,4 

28,7 

28,4 

9,0 

0,0 

0,5 

0,6 

6,7 

0,0 

122,5 
14,7 

28,7 

22,8 

54,5 

41,5 

3,4 

1,6 

8,0 

11,7 

p.m. 

176,1 

178,0 

176,1 

178,0 

32,6 
4,6 

22,4 

22,3 

1,0 

0,0 

0,3 

0,2 

4,2 

0,0 

145,4 
17,0 

42,7 

35,0 

56,6 

41,9 

3,7 

1,9 

11,4 

12,1 

p.m. 

2025 

181,4 

181,6 

181,4 

181,6 

18,4 
3,8 

10,7 

10,7 

1,0 

0,0 

0,1 

0,1 

2,6 

0,0 

163,2 
18,5 

55,5 

46,8 

56,9 

41,7 

4,2 

2,4 

13,2 

12,4 

p.m. 

163,5 

170,1 

174,5 

178,0 

181,6 

1,40% 

1,40% 

1,40% 

1,40% 

1,40% 

196,0 

154,6 
19,7 

134,8 

8,9 

163,5 

202,9 

157,4 
19,9 

137,4 

12,7 

170,1 

210,1 

164,8 
20,6 

144,1 

9,7 

174,5 

217,8 

171,2 
21,4 

149,8 

6,8 

178,0 

223,9 

176,6 
22,0 

154,6 

4,9 

181,6 

* 2022-2025: Payments for the potential use of margins have been added in the total for each heading, tentatively 
distributed in proportion to the headings' payments 

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** The following amounts correspond to the payments foreseen in the Draft Budget 2021 for the European Globalisation 
Adjustment Fund, the Solidarity and Emergency Aid Reserve. Due to their specific nature, the use of those instruments 
beyond 2021 cannot be forecast.  
The appropriations for those instruments are considered outside the Multiannual Financial Framework ceilings for the 
purposes of the calculation of the corresponding margins. This is also the case for the appropriations related to the 
Flexibility Instrument. 
*** Calculated on the basis of the latest economic forecast for the gross national income of the EU27 for 2021-2025 
**** Traditional own resources are estimated on the basis of 10% retention rate for collection costs. National 
contributions include the gross national income-based own resource, the reformed Value Added Tax-based own 
resource and new own resources included in the Commission proposal for the MFF 2021-2027.  

Table 2 - De-commitments forecast over 2021-2025 

Decommitments 

2021-2025 

in EUR billion, current prices 

1. Single Market, Innovation and Digital 

2. Cohesion and Values  

of which: Economic, social and territorial cohesion 

3. Natural Resources and Environment 

4. Migration and Border Management 

5. Resilience, Security and Defence 

6. Neighbourhood and the World 

7. European Public Administration 

* No decommitments are anticipated in relation to the commitments proposed for the 2021-2027 financial framework 

TOTAL 

-1,0 

-5,1 

-5,0 

-2,1 

-0,6 

-0,1 

-0,1 

0,0 

-9,0 

Table 3 – Change in the total outstanding commitments from 2021 to 2025 

in EUR billion, current prices 

RAL end-2020* 

Commitments 
2021-2025 

Payments 2021-
2025 

De-
commitments 

RAL end-2025 

(a) 

307,9 

Of which on: 

2014-2020 MFF 
307,9 
2021-2027 MFF 
n/a 

(b) 

859,4 

n/a 

859,4 

(c ) 

866,1 

282,6 

583,5 

(d) 

-9,0 

-9,0 

- 

(a+b-c+d) 

292,3 

16,3 

275,9 

* The RAL does not include outstanding commitments generated from external assigned revenue 

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