How do PES act to prevent unemployment in a changing world of work? : analytical paper.
Date: 2020-05-25
Institutions: Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion
Subjects: automation, employment service, job application, job cuts, long-term unemployment, manpower planning, new type of employment, technological change, unemployment, updating of skills, vocational guidance

ANALYTICAL PAPER 

HOW DO PES ACT TO PREVENT 
UNEMPLOYMENT IN A CHANGING  
WORLD OF WORK?

JANUARY 2019

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ANALYTICAL PAPER 

HOW DO PES ACT TO PREVENT 
UNEMPLOYMENT IN A CHANGING  
WORLD OF WORK?

Written by: Márton Csillag and Ágota Scharle (Budapest Institute)  
in cooperation with ICF

JANUARY 2019

CONTENTS

1. 

INTRODUCTION 

2.  LITERATURE OVERVIEW: THE EFFECT OF TECHNOLOGICAL  

CHANGE ON LABOUR DEMAND 

2.1  Estimating the share of jobs potentially affected by automation 

2.2  The challenge posed by technological change: cross-country differences 

2.3  Up-skilling and technological progress: what do we know about the trajectories  

of potentially affected workers?  

2.4  Technological progress and the role of the PES  

3.  HOW DID PREVENTION EMERGE IN THE TOOLBOX OF PES?  

4.  SKILLS FORECASTING AND MATCHING SYSTEMS:  

THEIR USE IN PREVENTION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 

4.1  Skills surveys to underpin up-skilling and preventive measures 

4.2  Competence-based job matching to uncover skills gaps  

5.  SERVICES FOR EMPLOYED JOBSEEKERS 

5.1  Career counselling for employed jobseekers 

5.2  Steering jobseekers towards relevant training programmes 

5.3  Targeting of the up-skilling programme: how to avoid deadweight 

6.  ENSURING CLIENTS’ BUY-IN: FINANCIAL INCENTIVES AND/OR INFORMATION  

AND CO-OPERATION 

7.  THE CONSEQUENCES OF WORKING WITH AT-RISK EMPLOYEES FOR PES 

8.  THE TRANSFERABILITY OF PRACTICES AND KEY CONCLUSIONS 

8.1  The transferability of practices  

8.2  Key conclusions  

9.  REFERENCES 

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Based on an overview of what activities are currently 
undertaken by PES, the Analytical Paper will focus 
on four broad topics: 

 ● Prediction of employers’ future skills needs 

and changing occupational structures;

 ● Using competence-based job-matching tools 
to extract information on changing skills 
requirements;

 ● Channelling information about skills needs 
into jobseekers’ career counselling and 
up-skilling; and

 ● Providing incentives for up-skilling activities. 

To produce this Analytical Paper, we relied primarily 
on four case-study countries. Currently, there seem 
to be very few PES who explicitly aim at either 
preventing unemployment or becoming a service 
provider throughout a person’s career. Thus, while 
many PES have developed a range of services which 
could facilitate career transitions, these are often 
not seen as a comprehensive ‘system’ or approach. 
In our selection of case-study countries, we sought 
to include those PES that have a relatively long 
tradition in preventing unemployment and working 
with employed jobseekers (the German PES, Bun-
desagentur für Arbeit (BA); and the Belgian-Flemish 
PES, Vlaamse Dienst voor Arbeidsbemiddeling 
en Beroepsopleiding (VDAB)), and PES which have 
recently initiated such programmes (the Maltese 
PES, Jobsplus; and the Estonian PES, the Estonian 
Unemployment Insurance Funds (Eesti Töötukassa)). 
The information collected here was largely based 
on interviews with PES experts, whose support 
is gratefully acknowledged. 

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1.  INTRODUCTION

Technological progress (especially robotisation and 
digitalisation) has quickly changed labour markets 
and the very nature of work and employment 
contracts over the past decade, and this has implied 
profound changes in labour market risks. 

At a European level, the Council Recommendation 
of 20 December 2012 on the validation of non-
formal and informal learning (2012/C 398/01)1 
is already addressing some of the challenges 
by promoting a ‘skills audit’ for at-risk workers and 
jobseekers, ideally within six months of an identified 
need. Furthermore, the European Pillar of Social 
Rights2 set out the key principles of fair and well-
functioning labour markets, with a special focus 
on emerging types of employment deriving from 
new technologies and the digital revolution. These 
principles and rights cover the areas of employment, 
social protection, social inclusion, education and 
equal opportunities. 

Public Employment Services (PES) clearly are a key 
actor to enable workers to build up the right skills 
and adapt to these new challenges throughout their 
working lives. The PES Network Board meeting 
in Tallinn, December 2017, has acknowledged this 
and emphasised the growing importance of prevent-
ing unemployment, focusing on the risk of recurrent 
unemployment as well as the loss of work due 
to skills gaps. One of the priorities that emerged 
in the PES Network Board Meeting is to reduce the 
lack of relevant skills such as digital skills.

This  Analytical  Paper  reviews  PES  activities 
in response to the recent acceleration of technologi-
cal progress. The focus is especially on PES services 
for people currently in employment, but at risk 
of losing their jobs and becoming long-term 
unemployed. 

To understand the challenges faced by PES, the 
second chapter reviews the recent empirical litera-
ture describing the labour market consequences 
of technological change. The third chapter briefly 
outlines how PES has responded to this challenge, 
depending on its remit and the institutional environ-
ment. The following chapters describe particular 
measures taken by a sample of PES as well as their 
transferability to other countries.

1  https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/

TXT/?uri=celex%3A32012H1222 %2801 %29 

2  The Pillar was proclaimed on 17 November 2017 by the 
European Parliament, the Council and the Commission.

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2.  LITERATURE OVERVIEW:  

THE EFFECT OF TECHNOLOGICAL 
CHANGE ON LABOUR DEMAND

This section reviews the available literature on the 
impact of technological advancement on labour 
demand, focusing on different approaches taken 
by researchers and their implications for European 
PES. The goal of this literature review is to systema-
tise and summarise different methods for measuring 
the share of employment/jobs that are potentially 
automatable as well as the composition of these 
jobs, the negative and positive impact of automation 
on employment, and the factors that drive the dif-
ferences in effects between countries. 

2.1  Estimating the share  

of jobs potentially affected  
by automation

McKinsey (2017) shows that the technological 
advancement will affect the employer demand for 
skills. By 2030, 3 to 14 % of the global workforce 
will have to change their occupations and take 
up professional training. The employer demand for 
lower than secondary education is expected to decline 
in advanced economies, and demand for technical 
skills and secondary education in developing econo-
mies is likely to increase. In advanced economies, 
the jobs that require an ability to analyse information 
and jobs that give more control to employees over 
their own tasks are associated with higher cognitive 
skill requirements (as well as a higher education 
level) as proxied by literacy and numeracy; this 
requires policy makers to encourage more complex 
task structures (Pouliakas and Russo, 2015). 

In the medium and long run, as the economy grows, 
the technological advancement can create new jobs. 
When technology advances, productivity increases 
which, in turn, pushes GDP per capita upwards. 
McKinsey (2017) provides a number of ‘channels’ 
through which the per capita GDP drives the labour 
demand and generates new jobs: higher expenditure 
on consumer goods, healthcare and education, 
technological goods, infrastructure, residential and 
commercial buildings, and energy resources (utili-
ties) create new jobs in the respective industries. 
Chiacchio et al. (2018) claims that the displacement 
effect enforces the productivity effect in associated 
sectors. Chiacchio et al. (2018) suggest that 
a deeper insight into the previous industrial revolu-

tion showed that there was a negative impact 
on employment in the short run; however, in the 
long run, it created new jobs in associated industries 
such as the automobile sector.

Although there is a high potential of job automation 
in the world, the capabilities of technological advance-
ment should not be overestimated. According to Arntz 
et al. (2016), a lack of qualified labour able to handle 
the new technologies, the price of the capital relative 
to labour, legal barriers, ethical considerations, and 
societal preference may hinder the speed of adoption 
of new technologies. Also, the substitution of labour 
by technology may be overestimated because the 
adoption of new technologies is a complicated and 
slow process. However, where substitution happens, 
affected workers may switch tasks, thus adjusting 
to the changing technological environment. A large 
pool of literature on the effect of technological change 
on employment and labour demand define it as the 
‘displacement effect’ – workers being displaced 
by technology for performing the same tasks. Chiacchio 
et al. (2018) estimated that one additional robot per 
thousand workers reduces the employment rate 
by 0.18 % points, on average, in six EU countries.3 Frey 
and Osborne (2013) in their seminal paper estimated 
the probability of automations for occupation in the 
US and found that 47 % of total employment was 
at high risk. Arntz et al. (2016) concluded that 9 % 
of jobs are potentially automatable across the 
21 EU countries. 

Most of the literature takes one of the two main 
approaches to addressing the displacement effect 
of technological change on employment: task-based 
and occupation-based. The proponents of the 
occupation-based approach assume that the task 
structures within the same occupation are identical; 
thus, the whole occupations are subject to automa-
tion (this approach was first proposed by Frey and 
Osborne, 2013). Arntz et al. (2016), in contrast, 
claim that the occupation-based approach overes-
timates the automatability of jobs; hence, it depends 
on the structure of the tasks which may differ across 
different workplaces within the same occupation. 

3  Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden, the 
largest producers of industrial robots in the EU (85 %). 

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McKinsey (2017) uses a different approach by esti-
mating the share of hours in an occupation which 
is potentially subject to automation and assumes 
that the same share of jobs in that occupation 
is automatable. The report has predicted that, 
depending on occupation, up to one-third of global 
working hours may be automated by 2030. 

When talking about task-based automation, scholars 
differentiate between routine and non-routine tasks. 
Frey and Osborne (2013) define the routine tasks 
as ‘tasks that follow explicit rules that can be accom-
plished by machines’, whereas non-routine tasks are 
tasks that are difficult to code. The tasks that require 
a high level of problem-solving skills, creativity, and 
personal interactions are also defined as non-routine 
tasks. Such activities cannot be ascribed to specific 
rules (Autor, 2015). McKinsey (2017) provides some 
examples of routine tasks such as operating machin-
ery, preparing fast food and processing data, and 
non-routine tasks such as tasks performed by garden-
ers, plumbers and people who provide care and 
assistance (i.e. childcare, elderly care). Thus, by defini-
tion, routine tasks are more likely to be automated, 
as supported by Autor (2015), Goos et al. (2018) 
and McKinsey (2017). Frey and Osborne (2013) 
go a little deeper and differentiate between the two 
types of non-routine tasks: cognitive and manual. 
Non-routine cognitive tasks that are automated with 
the help of machine learning and big data can 
eliminate human bias in performing such tasks; and 
the automation of non-routine manual tasks 
by mobile robots is expected to increase due to con-
stantly declining prices of robotics. In principle, more 
accurate specification of the job task increases the 
chances of its potential automation. 

2.2  The challenge posed 

by technological change:  
cross-country differences

The literature discussed in this section covers most 
of the OECD countries and contrasts the results 
and suggests factors that may drive the differences. 
McKinsey (2017) emphasises that in advanced 
economies, occupations that are paid higher wages 
are at a lower risk of automation by 2030 due 
to increased demand for high-skill professionals, 
whereas the developing countries will not see 
a substantial rise in automation of middle-wage 
occupations because of the relatively lower labour 
price. The differences between countries are also 
related to how liberalised the labour market in the 
country is: more liberalised labour markets make 
it easier to fire a worker, which in turn enables 
higher staff turnover after the introduction of a new 

robot (Chiacchio et al., 2018). The countries that 
are subject to high levels of automation are associ-
ated with lower increases in shares of highly 
educated workers (Chiacchio et al., 2018).

According to Arntz et al. (2016), the cross-country 
differences in shares of automatability may be driven 
by differences in the structure of the tasks within 
the same occupation or industry; and varying task 
structures may be due to differences in workplace 
organisation (the lower the intensity of communica-
tion, the higher the risk of automation) and differ-
ences in adoption of new technologies (the larger 
the already existing investment in new technology, 
the lower the risk of automation). For example, jobs 
in Germany exhibit a lower intensity of communica-
tion. Arntz et al (2016) estimated that the highest 
share of workers at high risk of automation is in 
Germany and Austria (12 %) and the lowest in Estonia 
(6 %). The authors suggest that the differences 
in shares of automatable jobs between countries 
are due to the differences in task structure: in Ger-
many, workers perform fewer automatable tasks 
than workers with the same education in Estonia; 
but because there are more lower- and medium-
educated workers whose jobs are at high risk 
of automation in Germany, the workers in Germany 
are at a higher risk of automation than in Estonia. 

McKinsey (2017) estimated the number of jobs that 
will be potentially lost and created by 2030 in Ger-
many due to technological progress given the 
country’s macroeconomic context. Nine million jobs 
– 24 % of current working hours – will be potentially 
automated by 2030. However, projected per capita 
GDP growth rates will increase consumer expendi-
ture and increase the labour demand in correspond-
ing industries; and the ageing population in Germany 
will be likely to drive job creation in the healthcare 
industry. Thus, around 11 million jobs are likely 
to be created and offset the predicted job loss. The 
occupations that employ farm workers, firefighters, 
payroll clerks, machinists and cooks are likely to lose 
jobs, and occupations that employ professionals, 
care providers and IT specialists are likely to create 
most of the new jobs by 2030.

2.3  Up-skilling and technological 
progress: what do we know 
about the trajectories 
of potentially affected workers? 
The research on the labour market status of workers 
who have been affected by automation is still rather 
small. Dauth et al. (2017) studied how robots 
affected the careers of German workers in the 

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manufacturing industry at an individual level. The 
authors found that, over the period of 1994–2014, 
two manufacturing jobs were replaced by one 
additional robot. These robots did not directly 
displace jobs in the manufacturing sector, but they 
prevented firms from creating more jobs for young 
people. The lost jobs in the manufacturing sector 
were compensated by the jobs that were created 
in the service or public (non-manufacturing) sector. 
Thus, robots did not destroy jobs at the aggregate 
level  but  instead  changed  the  composition 
of employment. Nawakitphaitoon and Ormiston 
(2015) and Nedelkoska et al. (2015) studied the 
trajectories of displaced workers based on the 
occupations of re-employed workers. They found 
that the displacement increases the probability that 
the worker changes occupation by 30 %, and workers 
who change occupation have larger earnings losses 
than those who stay in the same occupation. How-
ever, Nawakitphaitoon and Ormiston (2015) also 
found that the more the skills were transferable 
across occupations, the less the earnings losses. 
Suleman and Lagoa (2016) pointed out that chang-
ing industry can also have large negative effects 
(similarly to changing occupation).4

4  Earning losses, due to having to change industry/

occupation, are highest among workers at intermediate 
occupational levels (lower level professionals, highly 
skilled physical occupations). This suggests that these 
occupations are most likely to require skills that are not 
transferrable across workplaces.

2.4  Technological progress  
and the role of the PES 

It seems to be clear that workers with lower levels 
of education are more likely to perform routine tasks 
that run the risk of being replaced by robots. However, 
the likelihood that a worker receives on-the-job training 
through their employer is three times lower for those 
in automatable jobs than for those in non-automatable 
jobs (Nedelkoska and Quintini, 2018).5 Thus, current 
patterns of up-skilling might lead to a rise in the 
inequality of labour market outcomes. This suggests 
important roles for public policy in: (i) providing incen-
tives and opportunities for lower-educated people 
to pursue up-skilling activities which will increase their 
chances of adapting to technological progress, and 
(ii) delivering adequate income support and re-
employment services to displaced workers. The PES 
is in a key position to ensure that support is provided 
to those who need it the most. First, it regularly 
analyses employers’ future employment needs and 
workers’ existing capabilities. Second, the PES most 
often is the public body which co-ordinates, and 
in many cases supervises and finances, adult learning 
and up-skilling opportunities. Finally, since the PES 
is the institution par excellence which provides services 
to unemployed people and those at risk of job-loss 
they will play a central role in easing transitions to jobs 
that have a lower risk of automatisation. 

5  Furthermore, training is often used to move to tasks 
(which require using analytical or social intelligence) 
which lead to a lower risk of automatability.

3.  HOW DID PREVENTION EMERGE  

IN THE TOOLBOX OF PES? 

Formulating policies that might help workers who 
are threatened by unemployment to make job-to-job 
transitions did not explicitly feature among the main 
objectives of most European PES in 2014. In the 
EU (2014), most PES formulated the objective 
to efficiently match the supply and demand of labour. 
Among the four PES studied in this paper, the objec-
tive of prevention of unemployment appeared 
at slightly different points in time and the underlying 
reasons largely differ. At the same time, it is worth 
noting that the four PES studied operate in a different 
environment in terms of the risk of automatisation 
of jobs. A large proportion of workers in Germany 
seem to work in jobs that are likely to be automated, 

while workers in Belgium and Estonia seem to be 
less affected (see Arntz et al., 2016; Nedelkoska and 
Quintini, 2018). It needs to be emphasised that cur-
rently we have no precise data about the extent 
to which employees are at risk of job-loss, or have 
actually become unemployed due to technological 
advances. This is due to the fact that it is very difficult 
to collect such information from workers (as they 
are not necessarily aware of the reason behind their 
job loss), while no pan-European employer survey 
involving these questions exists.6  

6  A potential way forward might be to consider including 

questions on this issue in the European Company Survey. 

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Putting prevention of unemployment as one of the 
focal points of its activity for the German PES 
is made possible by the early registration legislation 
in Germany. Specifically, all workers who have 
received a notice of dismissal or have a fixed-term 
contract which is approaching its end are required 
to register at the German PES as jobseekers.7 The 
German PES adopted the specific (quantitative) 
target of improving the job-to-job transition rate 
as early as 2008. This can be traced back to the 
overarching objective negotiated between the 
Federal Ministry of Employment and Social Affairs 
and the German PES to counteract the emergence 
of unemployment and to improve labour market 
matching. This overall objective was translated 
by the German PES into several numeric targets, 
including the ‘unemployment prevention’ target. 

In the three other case study PES (the PES in Bel-
gium-Flanders, Estonia, and Malta), working with 
at-risk employees is not an explicit performance 
objective; however, it appeared partly in response 
to the labour market situation in the recent past, 
as well as due to long-standing roles and visions 
of these PES.8 

The Belgian-Flemish PES has the long-standing 
vision that it ought to be the provider of services 
to citizens related to their labour market career 
throughout their life. This is supported by the fact 
that the Belgian-Flemish PES not only provides 
counselling services, but is also responsible for the 

7  This is to take place at least three months prior to the end 
of the contract. If the time between receiving the notice 
and the last day of work is shorter than three months, the 
individual has to report to BA not later than three days 
after receiving the notice.
It needs to be noted that measures for those affected 
by group dismissals have been part of the toolbox 
of these three PES for a long time. 

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delivery of vocational training courses. There are 
two developments which will also enable the 
Belgian-Flemish PES to increasingly work with (at-
risk) employees. First, the Belgian-Flemish PES has 
an exceptionally well-developed use of ICT solutions 
which makes it  possible to  potentially reach 
employed jobseekers. Second, thanks to the recent 
amelioration of labour market prospects and appar-
ent skills shortages, the Belgian-Flemish PES will 
likely need to focus more efforts on up-skilling. Thus, 
providing more services to at-risk employees is the 
next large step that the Belgian-Flemish PES will 
likely take in the future. 

The situation of the Maltese PES is somewhat 
similar, insofar as it also provides training opportuni-
ties to clients. The main driver of a change towards 
providing services to employed jobseekers was the 
shortage of labour across different skill levels that 
appeared in 2016. It seemed to be clear that the 
needs of the economy could not be fulfilled solely 
by training unemployed people, and that the PES 
needed to  enlarge its clientele by  up-skilling 
employed workers and attracting foreigners to the 
Maltese labour market.  

In a very similar vein, in Estonia, the need for preven-
tive measures was marked by various employers 
and clearly stated by the Supervisory Board of the 
Estonian PES. The need for creating and launching 
preventive measures was also foreseen from the 
situation on the labour market, where the lack 
of skilled labour was becoming a serious problem 
for employers. Thus, contrary to conventional wis-
dom that training programmes are used overwhelm-
ingly in times of an economic slowdown, when 
demand for skills increases quickly the PES has 
a new role as the initiator of up-skilling programmes 
for employed people. 

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4.  SKILLS FORECASTING AND 

MATCHING SYSTEMS: THEIR USE 
IN PREVENTION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

In order to prevent unemployment due primarily 
to technological progress, it is essential for PES to have 
a clear view of (i) which professions and workplaces 
are most at risk; (ii) which professions are likely to be 
in high demand in the near future and what skills are 
needed for these jobs; and (iii) to what extent workers 
at high risk of losing their jobs have competences 
and skills which can be easily transferred to jobs that 
are in demand. In the next section, we will outline how 
PES in the four country case studies gather information 
on these questions. 

4.1  Skills surveys to underpin  
up-skilling and preventive 
measures

Skills forecasting has been slowly evolving in PES; 
however, they are using the same principles 
to a large extent. Thus, longer-term forecasting 
of labour demand and supply is done based 
on Labour Force Surveys, administrative datasets 
using econometric methodology, and economic 
modelling. These are used to inform high-level policy 
makers at government ministries, and are also 
communicated to PES. However, PES in general use 
somewhat more short-term predictive exercises, 
which tend to rely on the analysis of vacancy 
information complemented with employers’ opinions. 
It seems to be clear that countries where the PES 
has a more advanced conductor role on the labour 
market, and as a consequence has access to a rich 
flow of information from employers, and where 
PES data collection strategies are advanced, the 
PES can rely on these sources to distinguish in what 
areas up-skilling for prevention is needed. At the 
same time, in countries with a less developed tradi-
tion, it is essential to conduct up-to-date surveys 
about employers’ skills needs and to have regular 
feedback on the directions proposed by PES. In the 
two PES which have recently launched preventive 
up-skilling measures (in Malta and Estonia), research 
was not specifically developed to aid the design 
of measures previously. However, later, during the 
design of the implementation of the new measures, 
consulting ongoing research proved essential for 
ensuring success. This was particularly important 
in finding the proper targeting of measures to the 
most relevant training courses.  

The Estonian PES, prior to launching its new preven-
tion and up-skilling measures, faced a difficult 
situation: it needed to decide what fields of study 
ought to be supported through financial incentives. 
Existing strategic documents and labour forecasts 
proved to be insufficient, as they seemed not 
specific enough. On the one hand, most strategic 
documents  indicated  generally  only  ‘fields 
in growth’; 9 on the other hand, the quantitative 
labour forecasting analysis conducted by the Min-
istry of Economic Affairs and Communications only 
provides prognoses by sector and broad occupational 
groups, but aspects of skills needed to work in these 
jobs were not addressed. 

Concurrently to the planning of preventive measures, 
a new set of analyses (called OSKA forecasts), 
coordinated by the Estonian Qualification Authority, 
started with the objective of revealing the needs for 
labour and skills necessary for Estonia’s economic 
development over the next 10 years. Thus, the OSKA 
system helps to learn about the right skills and 
analyses the needs for labour and skills necessary 
for Estonia’s economic development. These OSKA-
applied research surveys cover the needs for labour 
and skills in 24 different sectors, are to be carried 
out initially between 2016 and 2020, and are to be 
repeated every six years. These surveys use both 
statistical data and information collected from 
personal interviews with sectoral experts and from 
group discussions. The importance of the latter is that 
they are to involve stakeholders much more than 
previous forecasting activities. Within the OSKA 
research projects, qualitative methods are used 
to examine future changes in the needs for workers, 
skills, education and training in each sector, and 
to provide input with suggestions for improving 
qualifications. Finally, the surveys also assess labour 
requirements in quantitative terms and training 
capacities broken down by key professions.

9  The following are usually addressed as fields of growth: ICT 
as a horizontal field that is thorough in all other sectors; 
health-related technologies and services (for example 
biotechnology, e-health, including using ICT in the 
developmental process of medical services); more efficient 
use of resources (in materials science and the materials 
industry, innovative construction work, chemical industry).

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In Malta, the system of skills anticipation was 
somewhat fragmented prior to the establishment 
of the National Skills Council in 2016.10 There have 
been several positive developments since. First, 
a partnership between the Government of Malta 
and the Slovak Academy of Sciences (SAS) was 
forged: the latter was contracted to set up an 
occupational forecasting model for Malta and 
provide the necessary capacity building to the 
national authorities to incorporate this forecasting 
exercise into its core competences. This project is to 
be finished  by  the  end  of  2018.  The  model 
is expected to forecast the employment structure 
in the medium and longer term, and will serve 
as a tool to inform policy-makers of the future skill 
requirements, as well as create different scenarios 
based on underlying assumptions. 

Second, a comprehensive National Employee Skills 
Survey was conducted (commissioned by the 
National Commission for Further and Higher Educa-
tion  and  the  Maltese  PES).  This  is a survey 
of employers which collects data on vacancies, 
recruitment difficulties, and the expected number 
of vacancies over the next 12 months/3 years, and 
the  qualifications  and  experience  that  will 
be required of applicants. In particular, employers’ 
detailed skills needs and areas where these need 
to be improved were surveyed. Third, a specific 
Employer Relations Unit was set up in 2016, which 
– among other roles – was tasked with discussing 
with employers their labour and skills needs, as well 
as training initiatives expected to be offered to their 
staff. Finally, a co-operation was set up between 
the Maltese and Belgian-Flemish PES, whereby 
competence-based job matching has been adapted 
to the Maltese context.

In Belgium-Flanders, there are a number of different 
skills anticipation exercises, which are used by the 
Belgian-Flemish PES for different purposes. The 
Belgian-Flemish PES relies on the skills forecast 
made by the Centre of Expertise for Labour market 
Monitoring (CELM), which is a university-based 
knowledge centre for the monitoring and analysis 
of the labour market. Furthermore, the Belgian-
Flemish PES undertakes two yearly research projects 
to gauge the scarcity of certain skills in the current 
labour market. First, it monitors how recently gradu-
ated youngsters enter the labour market and reports 
on their success in finding a job one year after 
entering the labour market. Thus it guides the study 

10 This is a forum which brings together representatives 
of different stakeholders, with the role of coordinating 
skills forecasting exercises and formulating 
recommendations for the government on policies 
to reduce skills gaps. 

choice of young people with up-to-date information 
on labour market opportunities. Second, it checks 
its vacancy database, discusses it with employer 
organisations and reports on job aspirations that 
are hard/easy to fulfil (qualitative and quantitative 
assessment). The latter information is used to shape 
the services that the Belgian-Flemish PES offers, 
e.g. the type of courses that will be available. More 
specifically, the Belgian-Flemish PES develops 
annual sectoral business plans, which are further 
broken down into provincial sectoral business plans. 
These plans provide sufficient flexibility such that 
local labour market developments, including the 
opinions of local employers, can be channelled into 
the planning process.

The German PES uses a large range of surveys and 
a variety of data sources to underpin skills forecasts. 
The German PES uses statistic evaluations, such 
as the bottleneck analysis, and industry assess-
ments to determine qualification requirements, 
which are taken into account in the planning and 
implementation of further education funding. 
In general, the forecasting and planning is a two-
stage process: based on data and an econometric 
model, forecasts are made for a large number 
of professions at the regional level. Following this 
step, local PES offices are consulted and industry-
specific forecasts are adjusted to the local PES 
office level after this consultation process. The 
German PES also calculates a large number of sta-
tistics about the supply and demand of people 
in different occupations and training fields (bot-
tleneck occupations, occupational and training 
opportunities radar etc.), which informs stakeholders 
and clients in an accessible way.   

4.2  Competence-based job matching 

to uncover skills gaps 

Automated job-matching algorithms have the 
potential to inform both jobseekers and employment 
counsellors about the short-term skills needs 
of employers, and competence-based matching 
systems give richer and more informative solu-
tions.11 We will primarily discuss the case of the 
Belgian-Flemish PES, which has been developing 
the approach of competence-based matching for 
a long time. A fundamental concept of the Belgian-

11 The European Skills/Competences, Qualifications and 

Occupations classification (ESCO), is one example which 
enables such job-matching. It is already used in the EU’s 
EURES job platform and PES are currently engaged 
in mapping national competence and occupation 
classifications so this can be more actively used at the 
national and regional level. 

12

13

Flemish PES is that working with competences 
throughout the job-matching process, instead 
of simply working with professions and (formal) 
certificates, is more efficient. In fact, the Maltese 
PES has reached an agreement with the Belgian-
Flemish PES that it is the Belgian-Flemish PES which 
technically performs job matching for the Maltese 
PES. Thus, most of what is discussed for the Belgian-
Flemish PES also applies to the Maltese PES. We will 
also present the approach of the German PES, which 
also uses bi-directional (including competences) 
matching. The case of the Estonian PES will not 
be presented, since the automated matching algo-
rithm is currently (in 2018) being redesigned, and 
it would be too early to present it. 

The main idea behind moving towards competences 
is that in a labour market characterised by more 
fluidity, it is finding the jobseeker with the right set 
of competences (skills) combined with motivation 
for the job that demands a competence in a given 
set of tasks that will make a successful and produc-
tive match. Furthermore, this approach underlies 
the notion that with some additional training (either 
on or off the job) a jobseeker who might not be for-
mally qualified for the job will likely be a successful 
employee. Thus, competence-based matching can 
be a step towards solving a given firm’s skills short-
age, by giving access to a larger pool of jobseekers 
to choose from. At the same time, competence-
based matching gives jobseekers a broader perspec-
tive on career possibilities, by helping them realise 
that a range of jobs that appear unreachable can 
turn out to require many skills that were already 
acquired in previous jobs or education. Finally, 
competence-based matching is also informative 
for PES as it offers guidance on what up-skilling 
courses to offer to potentially bridge existing com-
petence gaps. Furthermore, using a system of com-
petences can also provide insight into the transfer-
ability of skills across different jobs, and how, in the 
future, when the automation of certain tasks 
advances, employees can change their career 
orientation. 

Currently, all jobseekers in Belgium-Flanders, includ-
ing those who are already employed, have access 
to an online career portfolio (Mijn Loopbaan), where 
they can manage their CV and enter and update 
their competences. Through the Belgian-Flemish 
PES’ online platform, they can easily see, search 
and apply for vacancies. There are several other 
online tools, including for career orientation, training 
possibilities, etc. Employers similarly use the Bel-
gian-Flemish PES’ platform to enter job adverts, 
search for candidates, etc. An important building 
block is that both jobseekers and employers are 

required to enter competencies (skills) they possess 
(for the jobseeker) and competencies which are 
required/preferred for a given job (for employers). 
All users are supported by a ‘competence finder’, 
which does two things: (i) it translates CVs and job 
descriptions into competences12 and (ii) it translates 
competences into everyday language. When job-
seekers (and employers) search for a job using the 
competence-based matching algorithm, they will 
be shown the potential matches, the level of match-
ing (or matching score), and a gap analysis. This 
latter details what aspects of a jobseeker’s profile 
differ from that of the requirements of the job. 
Thus, this latter can serve as guidance to both the 
jobseeker and the (potential) employer of what 
training might be necessary for the candidates to be 
successful at the job. 

Goos et al. (2018) discuss the importance of the 
task overlap across jobs using data on unemployed 
jobseekers from the Belgian-Flemish PES’ job-
matching portal. They estimate that a person can 
compete for a job if s/he meets at least 80  % 
of a job’s competence requirements. To show the 
effect of technological change and those of com-
petences, they assume technological change 
decreases the number of routine-task-based jobs, 
and compare two situations: one where the unem-
ployed compete for jobs based on their compe-
tences, and one where all the unemployed have 
equal chances of re-employment, regardless of their 
competences. They show that in a labour market 
where competences matter, workers who are 
employed in jobs with a high proportion of routine 
tasks are likely to fare badly: their unemployment 
durations will increase significantly due to techno-
logical changes. The authors also show that there 
is only limited scope for policies that direct unem-
ployed jobseekers with routine-task competencies 
to less routine-task-intensive vacancies for which 
they also in part qualify. In other words, the transfer-
ability of skills from jobs with high routine-task 
content is limited, and hence there is important 
need for up-skilling measures. 

In Germany, there are a variety of information 
sources and approaches which can be used to dis-
cover skills gaps and analyse the transferability 
of skills. Bi-directional matching has been used 
in the German PES since the introduction of the 
Virtual Labour Market in 2005, which can include 
– in addition to occupation, place of work, working 

12 Note that this requires a constant updating 

of occupational competence standards, which the 
Belgian-Flemish PES does in collaboration with the French 
PES (Pôle emploi). 

13

14

hours, etc. – competencies and skills. The matching 
procedure comprises two steps. First, automatic 
matching generates a list of potentially suitable 
candidates presented in  decreasing matching 
accuracy. Second, the counsellors at the German 
PES’ employer service use this list and cross-check 
with employers’ requirements for quality assurance, 
and employer service counsellors can also contact 
the jobseekers’ counselling agent to clarify the 
applicant’s suitability for the job. In the German 
PES’ matching algorithm, while profession is a man-
datory field, skills (including personal strengths) 
can be added. The employer can specify which 
of these requirements (in particular occupation, 
place of work, hours) are essential for the job 
(whether they will be used as hard criteria during 
job matching). In terms of everyday career counsel-
ling, the German PES refers clients to the BERUFENET 
online service, which not only describes each profes-
sion (including skills and competences required), 
but also informs clients about potential training 
courses as well as giving access to statistics 
on labour market opportunities (the evolution 
of vacancies, etc.) Furthermore, the online service 
also suggests alternative/related occupations 
to clients.

New ‘merger profession’ statistic 
in Germany

More recently, the Institute for Employment Research 
(the research institute of the German PES) has 
developed the statistic of ‘merger profession’ (Ein-
mündungsberuf) about the profession in which 
a person actually takes up employment, based on the 
German PES’ linked administrative databases. Thus, 
based on this statistic not only are statements pos-
sible about which occupation the unemployed person 
has learned (vocational training), in which occupation 
the unemployed person was made unemployed 
(origin profession), and in which occupation the 
unemployed person seeks employment (target 
occupation), but also, in which occupation the person 
actually takes up employment (employment). This 
measure can be used in a variety of ways: for 
example, (i) the accuracy of fit of the placement can 
be examined by comparing the information on the 
placement and target profession; (ii) it can enrich 
the knowledge about market opportunities and risks 
for certain occupations; and (iii) the similarity of occu-
pations’ skills content can also be verified based 
on these statistics by examining the trajectories 
of workers across different occupations.

5.  SERVICES FOR EMPLOYED 

JOBSEEKERS

We will discuss both the innovative services and 
programmes recently launched for employed job-
seekers, as well as those which have existed for 
a number of years. There are two main policies 
with which PES currently can potentially forestall 
the negative consequences of technological pro-
gress. First, PES can provide information through 
career counselling in order to persuade jobseekers 
to consider alternative jobs. Second, PES can propose 
up-skilling programmes for employed jobseekers 
likely to be affected. In this section, we will focus 
primarily the second type of policy.

It is important to note that the situation in Germany 
is specific: given the early registration of those 
threatened by job-loss, employed registered job-
seekers can have access to the full range of services 
(albeit not all active measures) that those registered 

as unemployed can use. Thus, the well-known 
4phase model of activation and counselling is also 
used for employed jobseekers.13 

5.1  Career counselling for employed 

jobseekers

There do not seem to be employment counsellors 
specialising in working with employed jobseekers 
in the case-study PES. Thus, these counsellors are 
regularly informed about skills forecasts and are 
trained in using the results of (automated) job-
matching systems. 

13 For more information on this model, please consult the 
PES Practice on this approach, available here: http://
ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=17550&langId=en 

14

15

related to their job. Similarly, firms can also request 
training programmes for their employees, and some 
of these companies can receive substantial reim-
bursement.17 It needs to be noted that in line with 
its vision as a conductor on the labour market, the 
Belgian-Flemish PES does offer training courses, 
but relies to a substantial extent on private provid-
ers.18 Furthermore, given the online orientation 
of the Belgian-Flemish PES, it offers a large number 
of training courses online for free, with a large 
number of citizens (up to 10 000 yearly) following 
primarily business support courses. 

Online guidance for jobseekers 
in Belgium-Flanders

The Belgian-Flemish PES provides online guidance 
on what courses might be appropriate through 
a jobseekers’ online career guidance system. Within 
this online system, jobseekers receive suggestions 
on what training courses might be appropriate, 
based on what occupations the clients is searching 
for. As the Belgian-Flemish PES is looking to inte-
grate more activities in the framework of a com-
petence-based approach, the vision is that jobseek-
ers can get online suggestions for training courses 
based on the ‘competence gaps’ uncovered through 
the online competence-based matching approach. 
However, this future development also has implica-
tions for the way training courses are organised, 
as these have to be ‘modularised’. 

Information sharing is very well developed at the 
Belgian-Flemish PES. First, counsellors are trained 
to interpret the results of competence-based match-
ing and to encourage jobseekers to look for a large 
range of jobs. Clearly, including jobs among those 
acceptable for a jobseeker for which she might have 
competences that can be easily transferred might 
increase re-employment chances. However, given 
that this job search for at-risk employed people is just 
in its early stages, employment counsellors use soft 
approaches. Second, the Belgian-Flemish PES re-
organised the daily work in local PES offices’ sectoral 
teams. This means that all the knowledge and 
expertise of a certain sector is combined in one 
‘sectoral service point’. Thus knowledge sharing 
between counsellors working with jobseekers and 
those servicing employers is immediate. 

An important feature of the Belgian-Flemish PES 
system is that employed and self-employed citizens14 
are entitled to ‘career counselling vouchers’ at a low 
cost, with the aim of providing a demand-driven 
service. The voucher gives citizens the rights to two 
four-hour career counselling sessions in a six-year 
period.15 The result of this career counselling is a Per-
sonal Development Plan, which is to give insights 
into employees’ talents, interests and competences, 
and make clients capable of self-steering on the 
labour market. Career guidance is offered by a num-
ber of recognised guidance centres, and the Belgian-
Flemish PES assures quality control. 

Besides this, the Belgian-Flemish PES also offers 
online career counselling, which includes (among 
other features) suggestions for most relevant 
professions based on their interests for those want-
ing to change jobs. 

5.2  Steering jobseekers towards 
relevant training programmes

In Belgium-Flanders, since 2003 all employed citi-
zens are entitled to subsidised training via ‘training 
vouchers’.16 Prior to 2010, employees were free 
to choose training courses from the supply of 
courses by registered training providers (including 
the Belgian-Flemish PES); but due to the risk of 
deadweight, conditions were revised. Currently, 
employees are only entitled to participate in training 

14 Unemployed citizens also receive career counselling 

services from the Belgian-Flemish PES; however, these 
are not ‘purchased’ with vouchers – instead, they are free. 
15 Citizens have to contribute EUR 40 to each voucher which 

entitles them to one four-hour training session.

16 Note that these are only for off-the-job training outside 

working hours. 

17 It is important to note that employer-initiated training 
represents the bulk of training provided by the Belgian-
Flemish PES for employed persons, as less than 6 % are 
initiated by employees. 

18 Thus in 2017, there were in total roughly 60 000 

participants in training courses, of which only 10 000 
were directly provided for by the Belgian-Flemish PES. 

15

16

In terms of the offer of training by the Belgian-
Flemish PES, this relies to a large extent in the 
medium run on ‘sectoral business plans’. However, 
there is also close co-operation with employers, 
particularly when large employers initiate training 
(for instance, due to restructuring), when training 
courses can be tailor-made. 

Work and Study Programme in Estonia

The Estonian PES, Töötukassa (EUIF), launched 
a broad range of measures aiming to prevent the 
onset of unemployment through supporting up-
skilling of at-risk employees in the Work and Study 
Programme.19 These measures in general support 
up-skilling by giving access to financial aid for 
studying to employees (and the unemployed) as well 
as to employers. The main aim of these programmes 
is to support training of skills in two broad types 
of fields: either (a) in skills which are general and 
thus easily transferrable, such as Estonian language 
skills, or IT skills; or (b) support the development 
of knowledge in professions for which there 
is increasing demand in the near future. Thus, these 
measures use direct administrative instruments 
to steer jobseekers, by limiting eligibility to training 
courses to professions and skills that are likely 
to be in excess demand in the upcoming years. 
Furthermore, to better match the needs of jobseek-
ers to the requirements of the labour market, 
personalised career counselling for applicants to the 
preventive measures is compulsory. 

It is important to note that prior to the launch of the 
Work and Study Programme, the Estonian PES 
analysed the supply of similar up-skilling measures, 
and in particular measures supported by the Euro-
pean Social Fund (ESF). Thus, there are a number 
of programmes which can be thought of as com-
plementary to those offered by the Estonian PES, 
such as bringing adults with low education levels 
to vocational or professional education; or subsidis-
ing training courses to support obtaining key 
competences. 

The Maltese PES also launched a new set of meas-
ures which aim to encourage up-skilling of unem-
ployed and (at-risk) employed people. These include 
allowances for low-earning individuals following 
the Maltese PES’ training courses (the ‘Average 
Wage Earners Scheme’), which are themselves free 
for participants; a reimbursement to individuals 
(irrespective of their employment status) of the 

costs of participating in off-the-job training for 
courses offered by private providers (the ‘Training 
Pays Scheme’); and finally a subsidy scheme for 
firms which have their employees participate 
in training courses (the ‘Investing in Skills Scheme’). 
Both the ‘Training Pays Scheme’ and the ‘Investing 
in Skills Scheme’ are ESF-funded projects and they 
build on the achievements of previous similar ESF 
projects, with the novel feature of increasing the 
number of employees who are eligible. 

Similarly to other PES, the Maltese PES also bases 
the offer of its training courses on information from 
a variety of sources. These are: findings of skills 
surveys and skills forecasts; monitoring the demand 
for different courses by (potential) trainees; and 
feedback from employers, as gathered by the 
Employer Relations Unit. More specifically, when 
offering courses, the findings of the National 
Employee Skills Survey are compared with the 
findings to the responses received from the 
Employer Relations Unit; and following this review, 
a plan of new courses has been drafted that will 
start being developed. Based on these findings, the 
courses on  offer are moving away from more 
traditional vocational training, and an increasing 
weight is being placed on soft skills training. 

In Germany, a training voucher (Bildungsprämie) was 
introduced for employees in 2008, in order to encour-
age them to participate in lifelong learning (this 
programme is coordinated by the Federal Ministry 
of Education and Research). This voucher was aimed 
at low- and medium-income people (above the age 
of 25) and covers 50 % of training course costs (with 
a cap of EUR 500) for work-related courses, and 
eligible people can receive a voucher every two years. 
Potential participants have to visit a counselling 
centre in order to verify eligibility and to receive 
advice on the suitability of courses. Evidence (Görlitz 
and Tamm, 2016) on the first phase of the imple-
mentation of the training voucher (2008–2011) 
shows that recipients were able to upgrade to more 
demanding job tasks and reported a better match 
between their skills and responsibilities on the job. 
However, participating in voucher-financed training 
did not seem to increase earnings or lead to more 
stable employment in the short run.  

5.3  Targeting of the up-skilling 
programme: how to avoid 
deadweight

19 For more information about this approach, please consult 
the PES Practice on this scheme available here: http://
ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=20007&langId=en  

An important issue with preventive up-skilling meas-
ures is that they can in principle lead to significant 
deadweight if targeting is not done properly: public 

16

authorities might be footing the bill for training which 
companies might be willing to finance. This is all the 
more difficult, as the measures need to target people 
who are at risk of unemployment in the future. 

The different measures in the Work and Study 
Programme in Estonia are relatively strictly targeted. 
First, the ‘degree study allowance’ is to support 
employed (and unemployed) individuals who either 
have no vocational degree or no professional degree 
(but have upper secondary education), or whose 
vocational skills have become obsolete. Second, 
employees who have low levels of income (lower 
than the average salary) can also apply for a training 
voucher. The eligibility is further restricted to those 
without a vocational or professional degree, to older 
employees or to employees with insufficient levels 
of Estonian language skills. Third, employers can 
also apply for training grants, which are available 
for those firms where the restructuring of operations 
or installing of new technologies warrants upgrading 
of skills.20 In all of these measures, those employees 
who are at an increased risk of becoming unem-
ployed are treated as a ‘high-risk group’ and thus 
are given preferential treatment.21 

The targeting of up-skilling measures recently 
launched by the Maltese PES was initially designed 
to be relatively fine-tuned; however, due to the need 
to reach out to more employed jobseekers, the 
eligibility requirements were significantly loosened. 
As for allowances for participating in the Maltese 
PES’ programmes, these are targeted at employees 
earning below the average wage, but there are 
no other restrictions. By contrast, originally the 
reimbursement scheme for participating in training 
programmes offered by private providers was to be 
fine-tuned, designed for those at risk of job-loss. 
This meant that it was designed to only include 
some priority groups from among employed trainees 
(besides unemployed people and inactive people): 
those working at micro and small enterprises, low-
earners, and people employed in vulnerable sectors. 
However, due to a relatively low demand by employed 
people for this scheme, and in order to encourage 
participation, eligibility was broadened to all employ-
ees. The only requirement is tied to the level 
of courses attended: they cover relatively low levels 
of education (meaning from basic education through 
vocational courses up to a short-cycle tertiary 
equivalent). Similarly, all enterprises that meet the 

20 Note that training grants are also available for those 

individuals who have recently been unemployed, or those 
who are recruited specifically with a training opportunity. 

21 This was the object of internal research, as discussed 

in Section 4.1.

17

Investing in Skills eligibility criteria can receive 
a subsidy that reimburses training costs, wage costs 
and air travel. The Investing in Skills Scheme is also 
accepting NGOs and Social Partners as eligible 
employers. Financing is based on a first-come, 
first-served basis. 

In Germany, a small-scale subsidy programme for 
supporting vocational training initiated by employers 
started in 2006. The WeGebAU programme targets 
employees who are particularly vulnerable to unem-
ployment due to lack of or loss of skills. The main 
target group of this programme are the low skilled 
with no vocational qualifications who are working 
in SMEs. Subsidies are subject to an agreement 
between the employer, the worker and the local 
employment agency: the programme covers the full 
(direct) training costs, as well as up to 100 % of wage 
costs (the employer is obliged to pay full wages for 
the duration of the training). The training course does 
not have to lead to a vocational qualification; for the 
low skilled, it can pertain to certain modules of a full 
vocational qualification. Based on early waves of pro-
gramme participants, the training subsidy led 
to increased employment stability and slightly higher 
earnings for educated participants (Dauth, 2017), 
particularly for women and younger workers. The 
effects of the programme seem to be more pro-
nounced for those above the age of 45 working 
in SMEs as well as those on a part-time or a fixed-term 
contract, and training courses of longer duration led 
to more beneficial outcomes.  

The Belgian-Flemish PES does not use limiting eligibility 
requirements to target training for the employed; 
rather, different target groups are given different 
financial incentives. Targeting of training for employees 
in Belgium-Flanders in terms of the training vouchers 
clearly favours the lower skilled. While all employees 
can receive vouchers for the value of up to EUR 250 
at a 50 % discount, those with at most an upper 
secondary school education can receive vouchers for 
the value of up to EUR 500; those with at most a lower 
secondary school education get these for free. As for 
training initiated by employers, the Belgian-Flemish 
PES can offer substantial discounts on the training 
costs for a variety of reasons. In particular, employees 
threatened by collective dismissal or working at com-
panies in financial difficulty can get full compensation. 
Furthermore, firms undergoing restructuring also 
receive a 50 % discount on training costs.  

17

18

6.  ENSURING CLIENTS’ BUY-IN: 

FINANCIAL INCENTIVES AND/OR 
INFORMATION AND CO-OPERATION

A crucial point of the success of preventive measures 
is to ensure that those persons who actually need 
up-skilling take these measures up. This clearly hinges 
on providing the right level of financial incentives, 
which is a thorny issue, given that most acquired 
knowledge about financial incentives for active meas-
ures relies on measures for the unemployed. However, 
for other issues, such as the right promotion, informa-
tion can also be crucial for the take-up of the measures, 
especially when launching the policy. 

provided by the Estonian PES for adults in order 
to raise/improve their skills level/profession. This 
meant starting from information sessions at job 
fairs to advertising campaigns (in both Estonian 
and Russian) using leaflets, bureaus of the Estonian 
PES, its website and social media. Similarly, short 
audio and video information spots were created 
for TV and radio, as well as special articles written 
for newspapers. Furthermore, direct email marketing 
for potential beneficiaries was used. 

The measures implemented in Estonia within the 
Work and Study Programme were designed to give 
financial incentives for employees (and their employ-
ers) to participate in training (up-skilling) programmes. 
These financial incentives in the ‘degree study allow-
ance’, which targets those with at least an upper 
secondary education, give access to an income 
of EUR 130 per month for employed individuals for 
up to a year.22 Training programme vouchers – which 
are aimed at low earners – have a value of  up 
to EUR 2 500 over a 3-year period.23 Finally, employers’ 
training grants normally cover 50 % of training costs 
(including training programme costs, travel costs, 
and wage costs evaluated at the minimum wage), 
up to EUR 1 250 per employee. However, training 
costs for at-risk groups (including those at risk of los-
ing their employment) cover up to 80 % of costs (with 
an upper limit of EUR 2 000 per employee). 

The package of preventive measures was discussed 
with the cooperation agreement partners of the 
Estonian PES in order to map their opinions and put 
them to use. In particular, meetings were held with 
representatives from the Estonian Trade Union 
Confederation and the Estonian Employers’ Confed-
eration to hear their expectations towards preventive 
measures. Through this process, a real dialogue with 
employers was able to be established in order 
to understand their needs and motivations. 

Furthermore, awareness-raising campaigns for the 
new preventive measures were run to introduce 
or act as a reminder about the various possibilities 

22 This was based on a pilot supported by the European 

Globalisation Fund. 

23 However, the average cost of programmes financed with 

training vouchers was EUR 730. 

Financial incentives to attend up-skilling 
or training programmes in Malta

The measures enacted by the Maltese PES also 
give clear financial incentives for attending up-
skilling or training programmes. The allowance for 
those low-wage earners participating in the Maltese 
PES’ courses is relatively modest, at EUR 25/week, 
also keeping in mind that this is for participating 
in at least 4 hours of training per week.24 The ‘Train-
ing Pays Scheme’ reimburses 75 % of all training 
costs (excluding VAT), and is capped at EUR 1 000.25 
The ‘Investing in Skills’ programme uses standard 
scale of unit costs (SSUCs) as a simplified cost 
option to encourage employers’ participation, 
by decreasing the administrative burden for com-
panies. Thus, it covers EUR 25/hour/trainee for 
training costs and EUR 4.90/hour/trainee for wage 
costs. Air travel is subsidised using the Erasmus + 
rates. The programme gives preferential treatment 
to smaller enterprises, as the reimbursement rate 
decreases with an increase in company size.26 

24 It needs to be noted that beneficiaries are also entitled 

to free transportation and may apply for a small childcare 
subsidy. 

25 It needs to be noted that there is a similar programme, 

run by the Ministry of Education and Employment, which 
targets higher-level courses, from vocational training 
to university training, and reimburses training costs 
through an income tax credit. This programme, the ‘Get 
Qualified’ scheme, reimburses 70 % of training costs, and 
reimbursements are capped at different levels based 
on the level of education, with higher reimbursement caps 
for higher levels of education.  

26 Specifically, it is 70 % for micro and small undertakings, 
60 % for medium-sized undertakings, and 50 % for large 
undertakings. 

18

19

Although the measures implemented by the Maltese 
PES were successful, the number of people benefit-
ting from them was restricted. This can potentially 
be due to several reasons. First, given that there 
is a high labour shortage in Malta, the most osten-
sible reason is that employers are keen to have 
their employees working on the job rather than 
letting them go to training courses. Furthermore, 
due to  this labour shortage, employees have 
an upper hand in terms of job-changing and thus 
up-skilling and training might be seen as less 
of a priority, even though measures are in place 
to promote the initiatives available. 

The evidence on how far information and financial 
incentives can go in encouraging jobseekers to start 
and partially self-finance up-skilling courses at their 
own initiative is mixed for the Bildungsprämie pro-
gramme in Germany. Görlitz and Tamm (2017) report 
on an experiment which provided a random sample 
of individuals (close to the time of introducing the 
training voucher) who were targeted with information 
about the existence and conditions of the programme. 
However, the intervention did not increase the take-up 
of the voucher, and this might have been due to three 
factors. First, for a large number of individuals, there 
seemed to be no unmet demand for up-skilling 
activities, as a large part of training in Germany 
is (partly) employer-financed.27 Second, some people 
did not participate not due to financial constraints, 
but rather due to time constraints (travel time, caring 
for children, etc.). Finally, for those who did face 
financial constraints, the 50 % subsidy might not 
have been fully sufficient. Indeed, it seems that during 
the early phases of the implementation of the 
programme, individuals more likely to take up the 

27 Indeed, Görlitz and Tamm (2016) using data from before 
the introduction of the Bildungsprämie found that up to 
85 % of training received by employees is at least partly 
employer-financed. 

voucher were those who had been involved in (other) 
training activities in the two years prior to the pro-
gramme. Thus, it remains unclear to what extent 
deadweight was present, as 62 % of voucher recipi-
ents claim that they would have participated in train-
ing even in the absence of the programme; however, 
77 % also claim that the voucher gave them motiva-
tion to participate in additional training.  

The experience of the German PES points to the 
fact that information and counselling services for 
employers is also essential. This became clear 
recently, as companies are faced with declining 
numbers of skilled jobseekers, and thus they have 
to rethink their recruitment and training strategy. 
First, the counsellors from the employer’s service 
regularly contact employers to discuss how far the 
employer is willing to consider applicants who do not 
meet all the selection criteria. Second, the German 
PES has developed ‘qualification counselling’, which 
is part of its labour market consultation services. 
This is a service targeted at SMEs, who do not have 
well-developed HR units. Specialised consulting staff 
support employers’ planning processes and start 
with the identification of overlooked potentials 
among existing staff, especially among lower-
educated and older workers. The overarching aim 
is the long-term strategic planning of further training 
and the development of the personnel needs 
of companies, as well as the short-term goal of fill-
ing job vacancies with less-qualified existing staff. 
While it is difficult to establish to what extent this 
new service contributes to the up-skilling of staff 
(and decreasing job turnover), survey evidence points 
to positive developments. First, the qualification 
counselling seems to have changed the way com-
panies view employee skills, and it has contributed 
to promoting an active engagement on the employ-
ers’ part in up-skilling activities. Second, the par-
ticipating companies were satisfied with the profes-
sionalism and trustworthiness of the counsellors. 

19

It is worth noting that the ESF-co-financed Qualifica-
tion Support for Employees Programme (Qualifi-
zierungsförderung für Beschäftigte) ran between 
2007 and 2013 in Austria. The programme’s main 
target groups were workers above the age of 45, 
women who had completed secondary education 
at most, and those returning to employment. Just 
as in the current programme, companies had 
to agree with employees about the type of training, 
and based on this they had to develop a training 
plan, while the local Austrian PES offices approved 
the request. The courses were delivered on non-
company-specific knowledge, and could include 
training at external training centres or training 
carried out within the company by an external 
trainer. The programme funded, in general, two-
thirds of the costs of the training, but for women 
above the age of 45 as much as 75 % of the costs 
were covered, with a ceiling of EUR 10 000 per 
beneficiary. During the entire programme period 
almost 200 000 employees participated in the 
programme, with an average of almost 2 subsidised 
trainings per individual. More than 90 % of the 
participants were employed for more than 299 days 
during the year following the training. The Austrian 
federal budget contributed with EUR 284 million, 
while the ESF contribution was EUR 98 million over 
the period 2007–2013. 

20

The Qualification Support for Employees 
Programme in Austria (Qualifizierungs-
förderung für Beschäftigte)

This programme of the Austrian PES (AMS) aims 
to help businesses finance up-skilling training for 
lower-educated employees, as well as training 
that enables older employees to undertake less 
onerous tasks or to bring their professional knowl-
edge up to date. This programme started in 2015 
and finishes at the end of 2019; it grew out 
of a  previous  ESF-co-financed  programme 
(between 2007 and 2013). The main target groups 
are those with no vocational training (who have 
only completed compulsory education); women 
who completed at most upper secondary (voca-
tional) education; and employees above the age 
of 45 with at most a tertiary degree. Companies 
have to agree with employees about the type 
of training, and based on this they have to develop 
a training plan, while the AMS local offices approve 
the request. The courses are to be for non-com-
pany-specific knowledge, and can range from basic 
skills training (IT or German language skills) 
to more advanced courses. The programme funds 
50 % of training costs (if the course lasts for 
at least 16 hours); as well as 50 % of the wage 
costs of participating workers starting from the 
25th hour of courses (in other words, from the 
third day of work foregone); and the funding cannot 
exceed EUR 10 000 per person. Providing for wage 
costs has proven to be especially important for 
small firms and low-skilled workers, as lost time 
seems to be a major hurdle for participation. In the 
first 3 years of the programme, more than 48 000 
people participated in training, from more than 
6 600 companies. A large proportion (40 %) 
of training was of very short duration (3–4 days), 
while one-third of training sessions lasted for 2–4 
weeks. The preliminary findings of an evaluation 
project reveal that the programme was successful 
in increasing participants’ labour income (which 
grew by EUR 200 EUR per month) and stabilising 
their employment (as they were in employment 
for 7 days per year more), compared to similar 
non-participants. It seems that the impact was 
particularly pronounced for younger (below the 
age of 35) lower-skilled persons, who participated 
in short courses (for up to 2 weeks). For older, 
more skilled employees only longer training ses-
sions seem effective. Researchers estimate that 
the deadweight effect of the programme was not 
pronounced: around 63 % to 79 % of training would 
not have taken place in absence of the subsidy.  

20

21

7.  THE CONSEQUENCES OF WORKING 
WITH AT-RISK EMPLOYEES FOR PES

While all four PES we have studied are moving 
towards putting emphasis on the prevention 
of unemployment  and  are  offering  services 
to employed jobseekers, this has had a limited 
impact on PES’ work organisation. The two main 
areas affected are the timing of service availability 
and the usage of multi-channel service strategies. 
The first change means that due to clients’ work-
place obligations, counselling services and training 
courses need to be offered outside of standard 
business hours. Thus PES offices have opening hours 
on some evenings; while training service providers 
have moved courses to Saturdays. 

A more fundamental change has been to offer more 
services online: while working with employed job-
seekers has not been the main catalyst of this 
change, services for these clients are certainly one 
of the main area which benefits. A prime example 
of this change is the Belgian-Flemish PES’ new 
contact strategy: this means that a number of online 
services are to be offered primarily online, with the 
objective of making them available via a wider range 
of time schedules (for instance: e-coaching). This 

is also supported by offering telephone services 
in the evenings (when offices are closed). Offering 
more services online goes hand in hand with the 
necessity of more analysis of clients’ online actions, 
in order to (i) offer more tailor-made solutions 
to clients, and (ii) to give PES counsellors more 
support (for instance by reporting a jobseeker’s 
activities). Clearly, these developments necessitate 
a back office staffed by digital managers and data 
analysts. 

The increased focus on employed jobseekers and 
preventive measures has so far not led to major 
changes in terms of human resources. The launch 
of the new preventive measures at the Estonian 
PES  was  accompanied  by  a  small  increase 
in employment counsellors, and employment coun-
sellors received some additional training regarding 
the new measures. Similarly, while there are 
a number of new measures being launched at the 
Maltese PES, and there are new analyses being 
developed, the changes in organisational structure 
and human resources fit into the general restructur-
ing of the Maltese PES. 

8.  THE TRANSFERABILITY OF PRACTICES 

AND KEY CONCLUSIONS

This section outlines what aspects of the current 
approaches taken by the four case study PES may 
be transferred to other PES contexts. It also consid-
ers the main conclusions that can be gathered from 
the examples. 

8.1  The transferability of practices 

The four cases reviewed in this study suggest that 
the development of PES preventive measures 
is demand driven: if skills shortages are a growing 
concern, and especially if employers have some 
influence over the PES either through long-standing 
arrangements of cooperation or formal institutions 

(e.g. a Board representing social partners), PES must 
take measures to meet this challenge. This implies 
that the pressure to act is likely to vary across 
EU countries and some PES, and sharing the good 
practices of first-movers can be important in moti-
vating and inspiring PES. This also means that due 
to a tightening of the labour market in some 
countries, additional resources can be devoted 
to designing measures that were traditionally not 
in the toolbox of PES, namely up-skilling pro -
grammes for employed persons who are at risk 
of losing their jobs due to technological progress.

The four examples also suggest that existing PES 
capacities may limit the extent to which PES may 

21

22

Table 8.1 Conditions of transferability

CONDITIONS EASY 
TO ESTABLISH IN  
THE SHORT RUN

CONDITIONS THAT MAY  
REQUIRE SEVERAL YEARS  
TO ESTABLISH

Skills forecasting

Surveys and analytical skills

Competence-based 
matching

Surveys and analytical skills,  
helpful if skills forecasting 
is available

Career counselling

Change management competencies

Advanced IT system

Staff capacity to match a broader customer 
agenda and/or elaborate online system

Highly visible and well-regarded PES

Training

Competence-based matching 

Good cooperation with employers

be able to implement one or several of the four 
measures. In particular, there is limited evidence 
that PES are currently acting on preventing job-
losses from technological progress.28 The table 
above presents the main conditions of transferability 
for each measure.

Some of the examples are relatively easy to transfer, 
e.g. targeted skills forecasting mainly requires the 
PES to develop and launch an employer survey and 
hire (or outsource) staff skilled in statistical analysis, 
as well as staff with a background in the analysis 
of vocational skills needs. Furthermore, if employer 
relations units do not exist or do not regularly 
consult employers about future skills needs, these 
need to be developed. These are relatively easy 
to establish in the short run (within a few years). 
More comprehensive skills intelligence frameworks, 
which combine broad data collection and systemic 
stakeholder feedback, will, however, take longer. 
Similarly, competence-based matching is relatively 
easy to introduce, though it does require a fairly 
advanced IT system and expertise. 

By contrast, career counselling and training may 
be somewhat harder to transfer to other countries. 
Career counselling for at-risk employees works well 
if potential clients are aware of PES services. This 
requires the PES to be highly visible (not only 
to jobseekers) and have a good image, in order 
to be able to reach out to these new clients. How-
ever, not all PES in the EU meet this condition, and 

Well-functioning market of training providers 
or internal supply

Wide range of high-quality, modularised 
training courses

establishing this positive image is likely to take 
some time. The PES also needs to either increase 
staff capacity and train their staff or develop online 
services, both of which may take several years.

To offer effective training for at-risk-employees, 
PES need a sophisticated tool for competence-based 
matching, and a supportive institutional background. 
The matching tool enables the PES to correctly 
identify the skills to be trained, and such a tool can 
be developed within a few years. However, they 
also need to have well-established contacts and 
cooperation with employers’ organisations and 
individual employers, which will enable them to cor-
rectly identify employees in need of training. 
Moreover, PES need to be able to offer a broad range 
of training courses that can be flexibly combined 
depending on participants’ needs. The development 
of such courses either requires substantial invest-
ment by the PES or the PES should be able to buy 
them, which requires a well-functioning market 
of training providers. Where such a strong institu-
tional background is not available, it may take 
several years to establish effective training and 
support services for this target group. 

8.2  Key conclusions 

It seems that PES are only taking the first steps 
towards thinking about effective solutions to prevent 
unemployment due to robotisation and digitalisation, 
but a few instructive lessons can be drawn. 

28 In particular, very few of the measures discussed were 
enacted in response to the threat of job losses due 
to technological progress. 

From the four PES examples studied, it is evident 
that comprehensive surveys of employers’ skills needs 

22

23

and an in-depth analysis of likely transformations 
of the skills content of jobs are essential first steps 
towards designing effective services and measures 
for those at risk of losing their jobs due to automation. 
Further steps call for a more strategic approach 
to developing skills intelligence drawing upon wider 
sources and for customisation of information in a form 
appropriate to the needs and capacity of stakeholders 
and clients. While competence-based matching 
algorithms are in place in more advanced PES, 
it seems that currently PES seldom fully capitalise 
on the potential of data analysis. A more in-depth 
anatomy of actual transition patterns of jobseekers 
between different occupations/jobs to infer which 
are the most easily transferrable skills is a potential 
way forward. Career counselling to those who are 
about to lose their jobs is also widely used, and it is 
a first step towards finding the necessary up-skilling 
activities. However, there is little evidence on whether 
this can be a sufficient service on its own. In the four 
PES used as case studies, the approach of offering 
subsidised up-skilling programmes – either through 
vouchers to at-risk individuals or by subsidising 

company-initiated training – is put to increasing use, 
with promising, albeit sometimes mixed, effectiveness. 
Offering a skills planning service to help SMEs towards 
having skills development plans, in conjunction with 
offering training subsidies, can be a promising way 
forward.   

Furthermore, the PES case studies explored in this 
paper confirmed the need for analysing the use 
of existing policy instruments prior to launching 
new  training  opportunities  as one  approach 
to addressing the rapid changing nature of the 
future of work. This is needed to (a) avoid dead-
weight and (b) understand the reasons behind the 
potentially low use of existing up-skilling pro-
grammes by lower-skilled workers. The existing 
evidence suggests that finely tuned and generous 
financial incentives (and possibly in-kind incentives 
such as subsidised childcare) might be more effec-
tive than broadly targeted voucher programmes. 
Ex-ante analysis would be very useful to understand 
the role of information provision in increasing the 
take-up of up-skilling programmes. 

23

24

9.  REFERENCES

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24

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