Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the 2020 National Reform Programme of Estonia and delivering a Council opinion on the 2020 Stability Programme of Estonia
Date: 2020-05-20
Institutions: European Commission, Secretariat-General
Subjects: Estonia, economic policy, economic recovery, economic reform, epidemic, infectious disease, investment, money laundering, social security, stability pact, stability programme

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   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 20.5.2020  COM(2020) 506 final  Recommendation for a COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the 2020 National Reform Programme of Estonia and delivering a Council opinion on the 2020 Stability Programme of Estonia  
 
Recommendation for a 

COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION 

on the 2020 National Reform Programme of Estonia and delivering a Council opinion on 
the 2020 Stability Programme of Estonia 

THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, 

Having  regard  to  the  Treaty  on  the  Functioning  of  the  European  Union,  and  in  particular 
Articles 121(2) and 148(4) thereof, 

Having regard to Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of 
the  surveillance  of  budgetary  positions  and  the  surveillance  and  coordination  of  economic 
policies1, and in particular Article 5(2) thereof, 

Having regard to the recommendation of the European Commission, 

Having regard to the resolutions of the European Parliament, 

Having regard to the conclusions of the European Council, 

Having regard to the opinion of the Employment Committee, 

Having regard to the opinion of the Economic and Financial Committee, 

Having regard to the opinion of the Social Protection Committee, 

Having regard to the opinion of the Economic Policy Committee, 

Whereas: 

(1) 

(2) 

On  17  December  2019,  the  Commission  adopted  the  Annual  Sustainable  Growth 
Strategy,  marking  the  start  of  the  2020  European  Semester  for  economic  policy 
coordination. It took due account of the European Pillar of Social Rights, proclaimed 
by the European Parliament, the Council and the Commission on 17 November 2017. 
On  17  December  2019,  on  the  basis  of  Regulation  (EU)  No  1176/2011,  the 
Commission  also  adopted  the  Alert  Mechanism  Report,  in  which  it  did  not  identify 
Estonia as  one of the Member States for which  an in-depth  review would be carried 
out. On the same date, the Commission also adopted a recommendation for a Council 
recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area. 
The 2020 country report for Estonia2 was published on 26 February 2020. It assessed 
Estonia’s progress in addressing the country-specific recommendations adopted by the 
Council  on  9  July  20193,  the  follow-up  given  to  the  recommendations  adopted  in 
previous years and Estonia's progress towards its national Europe 2020 targets.  

(3) 

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization officially declared the COVID-19 
outbreak  a  global  pandemic.  It  is  a  severe  public  health  emergency  for  citizens, 

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OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 1. 
SWD(2020) 505 final. 
OJ C 301, 5.9.2019, p. 117 

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societies  and  economies.  It  is  putting  national  health  systems  under  severe  strain, 
disrupting  global  supply  chains,  causing  volatility  in  financial  markets,  triggering 
consumer  demand  shocks  and  having  negative  effects  across  various  sectors.  It  is 
threatening  people’s  jobs,  their  incomes  and  companies’  business.  It  has  delivered  a 
major  economic  shock  that  is  already  having  serious  repercussions  in  the  European 
Union. On 13 March 2020, the Commission adopted a Communication4 calling for a 
coordinated economic response to the crisis, involving all actors at national and Union 
level.  

Several  Member States have declared a state of  emergency or introduced emergency 
measures.  Any  emergency  measures  should  be  strictly  proportionate,  necessary, 
limited in time, and in line with European and international standards. They should be 
subject to democratic oversight and independent judicial review. 

On  20  March  2020,  the  Commission  adopted  a  Communication  on  the  activation  of 
the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact5. The clause, as set out in 
Articles 5(1), 6(3), 9(1) and 10(3) of Regulation  (EC) 1466/97 and Articles 3(5) and 
5(2) of Regulation (EC) 1467/97, facilitates the coordination of budgetary policies in 
times  of  severe  economic  downturn.  In  its  Communication,  the  Commission  shared 
with the Council its view that, given the expected severe economic downturn resulting 
from  the COVID-19 outbreak, the  current  conditions  permit  activation of the clause. 
On  23  March  2020,  the  Ministers  of  Finance  of  the  Member  States  agreed  with  the 
assessment of the Commission. The activation of the general escape clause allows for 
a temporary departure from the adjustment path  towards the medium-term budgetary 
objective,  provided  that  this  does  not  endanger  fiscal  sustainability  in  the  medium 
term. For the corrective arm, the Council may also decide, on a recommendation from 
the Commission,  to  adopt  a revised  fiscal  trajectory. The  general  escape  clause does 
not suspend the procedures of the Stability and Growth Pact. It allows Member States 
to depart from the budgetary requirements that would normally apply while enabling 
the  Commission  and  the  Council  to  undertake  the  necessary  policy  coordination 
measures within the framework of the Pact. 

Continued  action  is  required  to  limit  and  control  the  spread  of  the  pandemic, 
strengthen  the  resilience  of  the  national  health  systems,  mitigate  the  socio-economic 
consequences through supportive measures for business and households and to ensure 
adequate  health  and  safety  conditions  at  the  workplace  with  a  view  to  resuming 
economic  activity.  The  Union  should  fully  use  the  various  tools  at  its  disposal  to 
support  Member  States’  efforts  in  those  areas.  In  parallel,  Member  States  and  the 
Union should work together to prepare the measures necessary to get back to a normal 
functioning of our societies and economies and to sustainable growth, integrating inter 
alia  the  green  transition  and  the  digital  transformation,  and  drawing  all  lessons  from 
the crisis. 

The  COVID-19  crisis  has  highlighted  the  flexibility  that  the  single  market  offers  to 
adapt  to  extraordinary  situations.  However,  in  order  to  ensure  a  swift  and  smooth 
transition to the recovery phase and the free movement of goods, services and workers, 
exceptional  measures that prevent  the single market  from  functioning  normally must 
be removed as soon as they are no longer indispensable. The current crisis has shown 
the need for crisis preparedness plans in the health sector, which include in particular 
improved  purchasing  strategies,  diversified  supply  chains  and  strategic  reserves  of 

(4) 

(5) 

(6) 

(7) 

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COM(2020) 112 final. 
COM(2020) 123 final. 

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(8) 

(9) 

essential  supplies.  They  are  key  elements  for  developing  broader  crisis  preparedness 
plans. 
The  Union  legislator  has  already  amended  the  relevant  legislative  frameworks6  to 
allow  Member  States  to  mobilise  all  unused  resources  from  the  European  Structural 
and  Investment  Funds  so  they  can  address  the  exceptional  effects  of  the  COVID-19 
pandemic. Those amendments will provide additional flexibility, as well as simplified 
and streamlined procedures. To alleviate cash flow pressures, Member States can also 
benefit  from  a  100%  co-financing  rate  from  the  Union  budget  in  the  2020-2021 
accounting year. Estonia is encouraged to make full use of those possibilities to help 
the individuals and sectors most affected by the challenges. 

The  socio-economic  consequences  of  the  pandemic  are  likely  to  be  unevenly 
distributed  across  sectors  and  regions  due  to  different  specialisation  patterns.  This 
entails  a  risk  of  widening  disparities  within  Estonia.  Combined  with  the  risk  of  a 
temporary unravelling of the convergence process between Member States, the current 
situation calls for targeted policy responses. 

(10)  On 30 April 2020, Estonia submitted its 2020 National Reform Programme and, on 28 
April  2020,  its  2020  Stability  Programme.  In  order  to  take  account  of  their 
interlinkages, the two programmes have been assessed at the same time. 

(11)  Estonia is currently in the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact. On 13 July 
2018, the Council recommended Estonia to ensure that the nominal growth rate of net 
primary government expenditure7 does not exceed 4,1% in 2019, corresponding to an 
annual structural adjustment of 0,6 % of GDP. The Commission’s overall assessment 
confirms  a  significant  deviation  from  the  recommended  adjustment  path  towards  the 
medium-term  objective  in  2019.  However,  in  light  of  the  activation  of  the  general 
escape  clause,  further  steps  under  the  significant  deviation  procedure  are  not 
warranted.   

(12) 

In  its  2020  Stability  Programme,  the  government  plans  the  headline  balance  to 
deteriorate  from  a  deficit  of  0,3%  of  GDP  in  2019  to  a  deficit  of  10,1%  of  GDP  in 
2020. The deficit is projected to decline to 3,8% of GDP in 2021. After decreasing to 
8,4%  of  GDP  in  2019,  the  general  government  debt-to-GDP  ratio  is  expected  to 
increase  to  21,9%  in  2020  according  to  the  2020  Stability  Programme.  The 
macroeconomic and fiscal outlook is affected by high uncertainty due to the COVID-
19 pandemic.  

(13) 

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and as part of a coordinated Union approach, 
Estonia has adopted budgetary measures to increase the capacity of its health system, 

6 
Regulation (EU) 2020/460 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 March 2020 amending 
Regulations  (EU)  No  1301/2013,  (EU)  No  1303/2013  and  (EU)  No  508/2014  as  regards  specific  measures  to 
mobilise  investments  in  the  healthcare  systems  of  Member  States  and  in  other  sectors  of  their  economies  in 
response to the COVID-19 outbreak (Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative) (OJ L 99, 31.3.2020, p. 5) and 
Regulation  (EU)  2020/558  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  23  April  2020  amending 
Regulations  (EU)  No  1301/2013  and  (EU)  No  1303/2013 as  regards  specific  measures  to  provide  exceptional 
flexibility for the use of the European Structural and Investments Funds in response to the COVID-19 outbreak 
(OJ L 130, 24.4.2020, p. 1). 
7 
Net  primary  government  expenditure  comprises  total  government  expenditure  excluding  interest 
expenditure,  expenditure  on  Union  programmes  fully  matched  by  Union  funds  revenue  and  non-discretionary 
changes  in  unemployment  benefit  expenditure.  Nationally  financed  gross  fixed  capital  formation  is  smoothed 
over a four-year period. Discretionary revenue measures or revenue increases mandated by law are factored in. 
One-off measures on both the revenue and expenditure sides are netted out. 

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contain  the  pandemic,  and  provide  relief  to  those  individuals  and  sectors  that  have 
been  particularly  affected.  According  to  the  2020  Stability  Programme,  those 
budgetary  measures  amounted  to  4,3%  of  GDP.  The  measures  include  strengthening 
health  care  services,  emergency  aid  for  distressed  companies,  temporary  wage 
subsidies and higher public investments. In addition, Estonia has announced measures 
that, while not having a direct budgetary impact, will contribute to support liquidity to 
businesses.  Those  measures  include  loan  guarantees  and  loans  to  businesses 
amounting to 8,7% of GDP.  Overall, the measures taken by Estonia are in line with 
the guidelines set out in the Commission Communication on a coordinated economic 
response  to  the  COVID-19  outbreak.  The  full  implementation  of  those  measures, 
followed  by  a  refocusing  of  fiscal  policies  towards  achieving  prudent  medium-term 
fiscal  positions  when  economic  conditions  allow,  will  contribute  to  preserving  fiscal 
sustainability in the medium term.  

(14)  Based  on  the  Commission  2020  spring  forecast  under  unchanged  policies,  Estonia’s 
general government balance is forecast at -8,3% of GDP in 2020 and -3,4% in 2021. 
The general government debt ratio is projected to remain below 60% of GDP in 2020 
and  2021,  reaching  22,6%  of  GDP  in  2021.  The  Commission  projects  a  lower 
government deficit for 2020 than the Stability Programme, reflecting differences in the 
macroeconomic projections. 

(15)  On 20 May 2020, the Commission issued a report prepared in accordance with Article 
126(3)  of  the  Treaty  due  to  Estonia’s  planned  breach  of  the  3%  of  GDP  deficit 
threshold in 2020. Overall, the analysis suggests that the deficit criterion as defined in 
the Treaty and in Regulation (EC) No 1467/1997 is not fulfilled. 

(16)  Between  12  March  2020  and  17  May  2020,  the  Estonian  government  declared  an 
emergency  situation  due  to  the  COVID-19  pandemic.  The  government’s  immediate 
response aimed at preventing the further spread of the virus and ensuring the Estonian 
economy could function as normally as possible. The restrictions to stop the spread of 
the pandemic had a serious impact on the economy. Since the emergency situation was 
declared,  the  number  of  registered  unemployed  has  increased  by  35%.  The  largest 
number  of  newly  unemployed  people  has  been  registered  in  retail  and  customer 
service,  construction,  catering,  accommodation,  and  event  management.  The 
unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9,2% in 2020 and recover to 6,5% in 2021. 
On 15 April 2020, the Estonian parliament approved the 2020 supplementary budget. 
New measures were introduced aimed at preserving jobs, avoiding massive layoffs and 
ensuring  liquidity  of  businesses.  The  budget  contains  a  wide  range  of  measures 
including  support 
investment 
programmes,  and  non-targeted  liquidity  support  for  companies  (such  as  guarantee 
schemes and tax deferrals). Some specific measures are designed for micro-companies 
and the tourism sector, including some targeted measures for the hardest hit regions. 
Additional  tax  measures  have  been  introduced,  such  as  temporarily  lowering  excise 
duties on diesel fuel, natural gas and electricity. The package of measures envisages a 
temporary suspension of the state contributions to the second pillar pension scheme. 

the  healthcare  sector,  municipalities,  some 

to 

(17)  Estonia  has  taken  notable  measures  to  contain  the  spread  and  health  impact  of 
COVID-19. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 outbreak revealed some structural weakness 
in  the  health  system  related  to  the  limited  financial  and  human  resources  available. 
The resilience of the system has been undermined by the shortages of health workers 
and  by  the  uneven  access  to  primary  care  and  the  availability  of  critical  medical 
products. Estonia is  also facing a challenge of overcoming the backlog of postponed 
and inaccessible treatments caused by the emergency situation. Moreover, even before 

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(18) 

the outbreak, the self-reported unmet needs for medical care in Estonia were one of the 
highest  in  the  Union  due  to  long  waiting  times  for  both  primary  and  specialist  care. 
These  factors  and  lifestyle-related  risks  help  explain  the  poor  health  status  of  the 
population.  Improving  the  accessibility  and  resilience  of  the  health  system  are 
preconditions to ensuring an efficient response to pandemic spreads and addressing the 
challenges linked to the health status of the population.  

Improving the adequacy of the social safety net has been a longstanding  challenge in 
Estonia. Even before the most recent crisis, social benefits in Estonia were assessed as 
less  effective  than  the  EU  average  in  reducing  the  incidence  of  poverty.  Moreover, 
there are  gaps in the coverage of the unemployment benefit system for those in non-
standard  forms  of  work  and  those  with  short  work  spells.  The  negative  effect  of  the 
COVID-19  pandemic  on  employment  and  incomes,  combined  with  the  lack  of 
adequate  coverage,  could  increase  poverty,  in  particular  for  jobless  households. 
Estonia  introduced  a  temporary  short-time  work  scheme  as  a  special  subsidy  for 
affected  companies  to  maintain  employment.  This  measure  is  limited  to  a  period  of 
two  months,  which  may  not  be  sufficient  to  mitigate  the  impact  of  the  crisis  as  the 
difficulties  may  last  longer  and  reach  some  economic  sectors  with  a  delay.  The 
pandemic  aggravated  the  difficulties  in  providing  affordable  and  available  social 
services,  including  long-term  care  services,  especially  for  the  elderly,  people  with 
disabilities and for low-income earners. Maintaining the plan to develop an integrated 
provision  of  social  and  health  services  would  help  to  address  those  challenges.  It  is 
important  to  ensure  the  meaningful  and  timely  involvement  of  social  partners  in  the 
design of the exit and recovery process while strengthening their capacity to do so. 

(19)  The  COVID-19  crisis  affected  Estonian  companies  in  many  sectors,  but  small  and 
medium-sized  enterprises  have  been  affected  the  most.  The  negative  impact  on  the 
economic activities was driven not only by the restrictions, but also by the declining 
demand in export markets and disruptions to global value chains. The liquidity support 
measures taken by the government are designed to help mitigate the impact, but their 
swift  and  effective  implementation  will  be  key  to  supporting  viable  firms  in  all 
affected sectors while sustaining the resilience of the banking sector. Deferrals of taxes 
as well as credit holidays can also help improve the cash-flow of small and medium-
sized  enterprises.  Moreover,  the  recovery  process  will  depend  on  how  well  the 
investments  will  be  targeted.  The  current  crisis  brought  up  the  importance  of  digital 
and  innovative  solutions  in  keeping  the  economy  going.  While  e-government  has 
functioned  well,  further  digitalisation  of  small  and  medium  size  enterprises  would 
increase their resilience and help speed up the recovery, bringing productivity gains in 
the  medium  term.  In  recent  years,  the  economy  as  a  whole  has  been  increasingly 
digitalised.  Yet,  the  take-up  of  information  and  communication  technologies  in 
manufacturing has so far been slow.  While Estonia’s overall innovation performance 
improved in 2019, the levels of research-based innovation capacity and activity in the 
business  sector  remain  low.  Research-based  innovation  and  the  introduction  of 
innovative  solutions  in  companies  could  improve  the  country’s  competitive  position 
and  boost  economic  growth.  To  help  companies  recover  from  the  crisis,  it  will  be 
important to ensure good access to finance, including to equity financing for start-ups.  

(20)  To  foster  the  economic  recovery,  it  will  be  important  to  front-load  mature  public 
investment  projects  and  promote  private  investment,  including  through  relevant 
reforms.  As  notably  reflected  in  its  National  Energy  and  Climate  Plan,  Estonia’s 
sustainable  growth  relies  on  progress  towards  decarbonisation  through  lowering 
carbon intensity in the energy and transport and buildings sectors, restructuring the oil 

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shale  industry  and  improving  resource  productivity,  including  implementing  circular 
economy business models. Estonia’s resource productivity is one of the lowest in the 
Union,  while  energy  consumption  levels  are  above  the  EU  average.  Having  an 
overarching  circular  economy  strategy  as  a  complement  to  the  National  Energy  and 
Climate  Plan  could  help  the  transition  towards  decarbonisation,  reduce  the  negative 
environmental  impacts  of  the  oil  shale  industry  and  boost  the  economy.  As  a 
peripheral  country  with  a 
low  population  density,  a  well-functioning  and 
interconnected transport  system  is  key for  Estonia’s economic  activities and exports. 
Estonia’s  transport  infrastructure  faces  some  shortcomings  in  terms  of  connectivity 
and sustainability. Rail and intermodal transport remain underdeveloped. Greenhouse 
gas  emissions  from  road  transport  have  increased  in  recent  years,  and  renewable 
energy in transport remains below the national targets. The Rail Baltica project and the 
energy interconnection projects  are among Estonia’s key  investment  priorities aimed 
at  improving  its  safety  and  integration  into  the  single  market.  Promoting  investment 
projects  that  take  into  account  environmental  and  climate  considerations  is  key  to  a 
sustainable economic recovery and reducing regional disparities. The programming of 
the Just Transition Fund for the period 2021-2027 could help Estonia to address some 
of the challenges posed by the transition to a climate neutral economy, in particular in 
the territory covered by  Annex D to the country  report. This  would allow Estonia to 
make the best use of that fund. 

(21)  The  Estonian  banking  sector  is  sound  overall  but  money  laundering  risks  remain. 
While  measures  have  been  taken  to  limit  exposure  to  risks  by  reducing  non-resident 
deposits, the national risk assessment does not cover other products that might present 
risks, such as custody services for non-resident customers. An update of the national 
risk  assessment  would  ensure  the  adequate  identification  of  risks  and  allow  the 
necessary  mitigating  measures  to  be  implemented.  While  supervisory  actions  have 
been  taken  against  non-compliant  banks  and  payment  institutions,  there  is  room  to 
further  enhance  the  effectiveness  of  supervision  and  enforcement.  Notably,  a  set  of 
legislative  acts  to  strengthen  the  preventive  framework,  confiscation  and  to  increase 
administrative  sanctions  has  not  yet  been  adopted.  Investigations  into  money 
laundering cases are progressing slowly. The capacity of the Financial Supervisor has 
not yet been strengthened enough and the risk-based approach to supervision is not yet 
fully  implemented,  in  particular  when  it  comes  to  thematic  on-site  inspections.   The 
exchange of information between the Financial Intelligence Unit and law enforcement 
is not sufficiently proactive. 

to  address  medium- 

(22)  While the present recommendations focus on tackling the socio-economic impacts of 
the  pandemic  and  facilitating  the  economic  recovery,  the  2019  country-specific 
recommendations adopted by the Council on 9 July 2019 also covered reforms that are 
essential 
structural  challenges.  Those 
recommendations remain pertinent and will continue to be monitored throughout next 
year’s  European  Semester  annual  cycle.  That  also  applies  to  recommendations 
regarding investment-related economic policies. The latter recommendations should be 
taken  into  account  for  the  strategic  programming  of  cohesion  policy  funding  post-
2020, including for mitigating measures and exit strategies with regard to the current 
crisis. 

long-term 

to 

(23)  The  European  Semester  provides  the  framework  for  continuous  economic  and 
employment  policy  coordination  in  the  Union,  which  can  contribute  to  a  sustainable 
economy.  Member  States  have  taken  stock  of  progress  regarding United  Nations’ 
Sustainable  Development  Goals  (SDGs)  implementation  in  their  2020  National 

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Reform  Programmes.  By  ensuring  the  full  implementation  of  the  recommendations 
below,  Estonia  will  contribute  to  the  progress  towards  the SDGs and  to  the  common 
effort of ensuring competitive sustainability in the Union.  

(24)  Close coordination between economies in the economic and monetary union is key to 
achieve a swift recovery from the economic impact of the COVID-19. Estonia should, 
as  a  Member  State  whose  currency  is  the  euro  –  and  taking  into  account  political 
guidance by the Eurogroup – ensure its policies remain consistent with the euro area 
recommendations and coordinated with those of the other euro area Member States.  

(25) 

In  the  context  of  the  2020  European  Semester,  the  Commission  has  carried  out  a 
comprehensive  analysis  of  Estonia’s  economic  policy  and  published  it  in  the  2020 
country  report.  It  has  also  assessed  the  2020  Stability  Programme  and  the  2020 
National  Reform  Programme  and  the  follow-up  given  to  the  recommendations 
addressed  to  Estonia  in  previous  years.  It  has  taken  into  account  not  only  their 
relevance  for  sustainable  fiscal  and  socioeconomic  policy  in  Estonia,  but  also  their 
compliance with Union rules and guidance, given the need to strengthen the Union’s 
overall  economic  governance  by  providing  Union-level  input  into  future  national 
decisions.  

(26) 

In  the  light  of  that  assessment,  the  Council  has  examined  the  2020  Stability 
Programme and its opinion8 is reflected in particular in recommendation (1) below,  

HEREBY RECOMMENDS that Estonia take action in 2020 and 2021 to: 

1. 

2. 

3. 

In  line  with  the  general  escape  clause,  take  all  necessary  measures  to  effectively 
address the pandemic, sustain the economy and support the ensuing recovery. When 
economic  conditions  allow,  pursue  fiscal  policies  aimed  at  achieving  prudent 
medium-term  fiscal  positions  and  ensuring  debt  sustainability,  while  enhancing 
investment.  Improve the accessibility  and resilience of the health system, including 
by  addressing  the  shortages  of  health  workers,  strengthening  primary  care  and 
ensuring the supply of critical medical products.  

Strengthen  the  adequacy  of  the  social  safety  net,  including  by  broadening  the 
coverage of unemployment benefits. 

Front-load  mature  public  investment  projects  and  promote  private  investment  to 
foster the economic recovery. Focus investment on the green and digital transition, in 
particular on digitalisation of companies, research and innovation, clean and efficient 
production  and  use  of  energy,  resource  efficiency,  and  sustainable  transport, 
contributing to a progressive decarbonisation of the economy. Support the innovation 
capacity  of  small  and  medium-sized  enterprises,  and  ensure  sufficient  access  to 
finance. 

4. 

Step up the efforts to ensure effective supervision and enforcement of the anti-money 
laundering framework.  

Done at Brussels, 

For the Council 
The President 

8 

Under Article 5(2) of Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97. 

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