Climate change and Europe’s water resources.
Date: 2020-05-14
Institutions: Joint Research Centre
Subjects: Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Spain, Türkiye, added value, climate change, economic consequence, environmental indicator, freshwater, global warming, hydrology, land use, reduction of gas emissions, report, simulation, social impact, water consumption, water resources

Climate change and Europe’s water 
resources 

JRC PESETA IV project – Task 10 

Bisselink B., Bernhard J., Gelati E., Adamovic M., Guenther 
S., Mentaschi L., Feyen L., and de Roo, A. 

2020 

EUR 29951 EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It 
aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a 
policy  position  of  the  European  Commission.  Neither  the  European  Commission  nor  any  person  acting  on  behalf of  the  Commission  is 
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of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation 
of its frontiers or boundaries. 

Contact information  
Name: Ad de Roo 
Address: Joint Research Centre, via E. Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy 
Email: Ad.DE-ROO@ec.europa.eu 
Tel.: 0039-0332-786240 

EU Science Hub 
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc 

JRC118586 

EUR 29951 EN 

PDF 

ISBN 978-92-76-10398-1 

ISSN 1831-9424 

doi:10.2760/15553 

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020  

© European Union 2020 

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How to cite this report: Bisselink B., Bernhard J., Gelati E., Adamovic M., Guenther S., Mentaschi L., Feyen L., and de Roo, A, Climate change 
and Europe’s water resources, EUR 29951 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2020, ISBN 978-92-76-10398-1, 
doi:10.2760/15553, JRC118586. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Contents 

Executive summary .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 

1.  Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 

2.  Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5 

3.  Results .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 6 

3.1 Change in average water availability .................................................................................................................................................. 6 

3.2 Present and future water scarcity ......................................................................................................................................................... 6 

3.3 Socio-economic impacts of future water scarcity ....................................................................................................................... 8 

3.3.1 Population ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 

3.3.2 Gross Value Added (GVA) ..................................................................................................................................................................... 10 

4.  Conclusions................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13 

References .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 

Annexes ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17 

Annex 1. Methodology ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 

A1.1 Climate projections .................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 

A1.2 Socio-economic scenarios ..................................................................................................................................................................... 18 

A1.3 Hydrological simulations and water scarcity indicator ....................................................................................................... 19 

Annex 2. Extended results ................................................................................................................................................................................. 20 

A2.1 Population........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 20 

A2.2 GVA ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 

List of abbreviations .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 

List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29 

List of tables ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30 

i 

 
Executive summary 

In addition to the already existing pressure on our freshwater resources, climate change may further decrease 
water availability. In this study, projections of future water resources, due to climate change, land use change 
and changes in water consumption have been assessed using JRC’s LISFLOOD water resources model.  

The  results  presented  are  based  on  11  climate  models  which  project  current  and  future  climate  under  two 
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenario. RCP4.5 may be viewed 
as a moderate-emissions-mitigation-policy scenario and RCP8.5 as a high-end emissions scenario. A 30-year 
window around the year that global warming reaches 1.5oC, 2oC and 3oC above preindustrial temperature has 
been  analysed  and  compared  to  the  1981-2010  control  climate  window  (baseline).  The  1.5°C  and  2°C 
warming scenarios are explicitly considered in the Paris Agreement, while a 3°C global warming is a scenario 
that could be expected by the end of the 21st century if adequate mitigation strategies are not taken. 

First,  we  performed  future  projections  without  socio-economic  developments  to  show  the  effect  of  climate 
change  only.  Next,  an  integrated  assessment  is  performed  including  future  changes  in  land  use,  water 
demand and population. This allows us to disentangle the effects of climate and socio-economic changes.       

In general, the climate projections reveal a typically North-South pattern across Europe for water availability. 
Overall,  Southern  European  countries  are  projected  to  face  decreasing  water  availability,  particularly  Spain, 
Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Malta, Italy and Turkey. Central and Northern European countries show an increasing 
annual water availability. 

Current pressures on water resources are exacerbated in Southern Europe 

To demonstrate the ratio between water demand and consumption versus total water availability, we use the 
Water  Exploitation  Index  Plus  (WEI+)  (consumption  ratio)  as  an  indicator  for  water  scarcity.  The  WEI+  is 
defined  as  the  total  water  net  consumption  divided  by  the  freshwater  resources  of  a  region,  including 
upstream inflowing water. WEI+ values have a range between 0 and 1. Different gradations of water scarcity 
are determined. Values below 0.1 denote “low water scarcity”, values between 0.1 and 0.2 denote “moderate 
water  scarcity”,  “water  scarcity”  when  this  ratio  is  larger  than  0.2,  and  “severe  water  scarcity”  if  the  ratio 
exceeds the 0.4 threshold (Faergemann, 2012). 

Results  show  an  intensification  and  a  longer  duration  of  water  scarcity  in  the  EU  under  global  warming, 
specifically  in  the  Mediterranean  countries.  To  demonstrate  this,  the  change  in  water scarcity  days  (WEI+ > 
0.2)  relative  to  the  current  climate  is  presented  in  Figure  1  for  the  three  warming  levels.  Water  scarcity  is 
projected  to  gradually  increase  in  duration  from  current  climate  towards  the  3oC  warming  level  in  the 
Mediterranean regions, especially in the Iberian Peninsula. Here, water scarcity can increase up to more than 1 
month  per  year  for  the  3oC  warming  levels  compared  to  current  climate.  Furthermore,  many  areas  in  the 
Mediterranean regions are projected to have a WEI+ close to 1.0 (not shown here), meaning that all possible 
(annual renewable) freshwater is being used. In several of these areas, groundwater amounts are depleting.  

1 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure  1.  Projected  change  in  water  scarcity  days  (WEI+  >  0.2)  in  a  year  compared  with  present  day  for  a  global 
temperature increase of (a) 1.5oC, (b) 2oC, and (c) 3oC. The results of both the 1.5oC and 2oC warming levels are based on 
the average of the 11 climate model simulations from both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, while the results 
of the 3oC warming level are solely based on the 11 simulation of the RCP8.5 emission scenario.   

Number of people exposed to water scarcity 

An  example  of  putting  water  scarcity  into  a  societal  perspective  is  to  estimate  how  many  people  and 
economic activities are exposed to different gradations of water scarcity. Averages of monthly WEI+  values 
are calculated for current climate (1981-2010) and for the 30-yr warming periods centred on the year global 
mean temperature exceeds 1.5oC, 2oC and 3oC for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. In the case 
of  the  simulations  without  socio-economic  developments  the  results  are  overlaid  with  the  population  and 
Gross  Added  Value  (GVA)  of  2010.  The  results  of  the  simulations  with  socio-economic  developments  are 
overlaid with the population and GVA of 2050. As a 3oC scenario is not realistic in 2050, only the  1.5oC and 
2oC warming period are considered within the simulations with socio-economic developments. Here, in Figure 
2, we show the ensemble mean of the ‘static’ simulations that shows the effect of climate change only.  

Figure 2. Projected number of (a) people living and (b) economic activity exposed to different gradations of water scarcity 
(WS) in the EU+UK solely due to climate change for the baseline and under the different warming levels.  

Our  projections  show  that  in  the  EU  climate  mitigation  can  considerably  reduce  the  number  of  people  and 
economic activity exposed to severe  water scarcity (WEI+ > 0.4), which is in accordance with  stress or even 

2 

 
 
 
 
 
clearly  unsustainable  use  of  water  resources.  In  the  EU+UK,  around  51.9  million  people  and  995  €billion 
economic activity are at present exposed to water scarcity (WEI+ larger then 0.2), and 3.3 million people and 
75 €billion economic activity to severe water scarcity. Even if we manage to ‘pursue efforts’ to 1.5°C global 
warming the people and economic activity exposed to  water scarcity could still increase with 7.4 million and 
134  €billion  compared  with  present  climate,  but  the  number  of  people  and  economic  activity  exposed  to 
severe  water  scarcity,  although  facing  intensified  and  longer  duration  of  severe  water  scarcity,  remain 
constant.  If  not,  with  unmitigated  climate  change  (3°C),  an  additional  7.7  million  people  and  99  €billion 
economic activity are projected to be exposed to severe water scarcity.  

When  demographic  changes  are  taken  into  account, in  general  the  additional  number  of  people  exposed  to 
water scarcity  is increasing  due  to  population  growth  in  some  countries  (such  as  France),  but  decreasing  in 
other  countries  due  to  a  projected  population  decline  in  countries  which  are  also  exposed  to  severe  water 
scarcity (such as Greece). The projections of the economic activity have a major effect in amplifying the water 
scarcity in the EU as the economic activity is growing in all EU countries. In general, the number of economic 
activity exposure can increase to two-fold compared with static economic activity.  

If  water  demand  stays  at  current  usage  levels  and  without  significant  water  saving  efforts,  the  warming 
climate  and  reduced  precipitation  in  the  Mediterranean  will  cause  extreme  increases  in  water  scarcity.  The 
people already exposed to water scarcity in current climate will encounter much more intense water scarcity. 
In addition, many people are projected to be exposed to severe water scarcity in an unmitigated climate. 

Adaptation 

The  severity  of  impacts  under  the  1.5°C,  2°C  and  3°C  warming  levels  suggests  that  various  adaptation 
mechanisms will be needed to lessen the effects of climate change on European water resources, in particular 
in  the  Mediterranean  region.  A  number  of  planned  adaptation  strategies  could  be  targeted  at  irrigation 
practices to lower pressures on water resources, e.g. increase irrigation efficiency. Several irrigation efficiency 
increase  efforts  are  planned  within  the  Water  Framework  Directive  (WFD)  Programs  of  Measures.  Water 
pricing for irrigation water – groundwater, surface water, or re-use of treated waste water, as well as pricing 
for  industrial  water  and  public  water,  could  create  incentives  for  users  to  consider  water  savings.  Irrigation 
efficiency could be increased by changing irrigation methods (e.g., from sprinkling to drip irrigation), but this is 
likely to only be feasible when irrigation water has a price. Furthermore, deficit irrigation strategies may lead 
to  substantial  water  savings,  with  only  limited  reductions  in  crop  yields.  More  efficient  cooling  technologies 
could  lead  to  a  reduction  in  water  use  for  producing  energy.  In  addition,  shifts  from  conventional  energy 
production  (coal)  to  renewable  energy  production  could  reduce  cooling  water  demand  and  net  water 
consumption  (Magagna  et  al.,  2019).  Changing  national  or  regional  water  allocation  regulations  could 
alleviate water scarcity episodes. In  more extreme cases, one might consider stimulating a  change to  crops 
that  have  a  smaller  (irrigation)  water  requirement,  and  critically  evaluate  subsidising  crops  in  water  scarce 
areas. 

3 

 
 
 
 
1.  Introduction 

Growing human water demands, due to projected population, socio-economic and climate, change pressures 
on our water supplies in many regions of the world (Wada et al., 2013; Schewe et al., 2014). Moreover, it is 
expected  that  water scarcity  is increasing  in  the  coming  decades (Gossling  and  Arnell, 2013).  As  water is a 
primary  need  for  all  (Vanham,  2016),  access  to  clean  water  is  one  of  the  key  factors  of  the  Sustainable 
Development Goals (SDGs) as agreed by the United Nations in 2015 (UN-GA, 2015).  

In  view  of  ongoing  global  warming  other  international  commitment  have  also  been  made  to  reduce 
greenhouse  gas  emissions  and  to  find  strategies  for  climate  change  adaptation  and  disaster  risk  reduction 
such  as  the  United  Nations’  Paris  Agreement  (UNFCC,  2015)  and  the  Sendai  Framework  for  Disaster  Risk 
Reduction  2015  -2030  (UNISDR,  2015).  The  United  Nations’  Paris  Agreement  includes  the  aim  of  limiting 
global warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit to only 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. 

The  protection  of  European  freshwaters  has  been  the  subject  of  several  EU  legislation,  as  the  Water 
Framework  Directive  (WFD)  and  its  specific  Directives.  Managing  and  coping  with  the  extremes  of  water  – 
floods  and  droughts  –  are  covered  under  the  Floods  Directive  (FD)  and  EU  Action  on  water  scarcity  and 
droughts.  

The  understanding  of  future  water  scarcity  is  essential  to  inform  and  support  climate  policy  makers  for 
mitigation  and  adaptation  strategies.  Water  use  modules  have  been  already  embedded  into  a  number  of 
large-scale  hydrological  models  to  investigate  water  availability  on  catchment  (Bisselink  et  al.,  2018a), 
European (Aus van der Beek et al., 2010; Bisselink et al., 2018b; Flörke et al., 2012) and global scale (Flörke et 
al.,  2013).  However,  there  is  still  need  to  better  assess  future  water  consumption  related  to  water  scarcity 
(Wada et al., 2013). 

Therefore,  in  this  study,  an  integrated  assessment  is  performed  considering  both  socio-economic  scenarios 
and climate change scenarios in relation to water scarcity in Europe under global warming.   

4 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.  Methodology 

The results of this study are obtained using JRC’s LISFLOOD water resources model (De Roo et al., 2000; Van 
der  Knijff  et  al.,  2010).  Driven  by  climate  projections,  LISFLOOD  calculates  a  complete  water  balance  at  a 
daily timestep and every grid cell, here 5x5 km. Freshwater resources are determined under global warming 
levels (GWLs) of 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C above preindustrial temperature and the results are compared with those 
under  the  baseline  (1981-2010)  climate.  The  Water  Exploitation  Index  Plus  (WEI+)  indicator  is  used  to 
estimate  the  intensity,  duration  and  the  socio-economic  impacts  of  water  scarcity  on  population  and  Gross 
Value  Added  (GVA).  The  WEI+  is  implemented  by  the  European  Environmental  Agency  (EEA)  for  identifying 
water scarcity and regularly updated with data from the EEA member countries in the framework of the State 
of environmental (SoE) data flows (ETC/ICM, 2016).   

The  WEI+  is  defined  as  the  ratio  of  the  total  water  net  consumption  divided  by  the  available  freshwater 
resources in a region, including upstream inflowing water. The total water net consumption is the difference 
between  the  water  abstraction  and  the  return  flow.  Water  abstractions  in  LISFLOOD  consist  of  five 
components from which the irrigation water demand is estimated dynamically within the model as it is driven 
by climate conditions. The other four sectorial components are used as input data. These are (manufacturing) 
industrial water demand, water demand for energy and cooling, livestock water demand and domestic water 
demand.  In  general, water use  estimated  for  these  four sectors  are  derived  from mainly  country-level  data 
(EUROSTAT, AQUASTAT)  with different modelling and downscaling techniques. Output of the LUISA platform 
(see Annex A1.2) is used for the spatial downscaling of both present and future water use trends to ensure 
consistency between land use, population and water demand. Improved water efficiency, based on historical 
trends, is  only  taken  into  account  for  the  industrial  water  demand.  The  WEI+  includes  return  flow,  resulting 
from  drained  irrigation  water,  (warmed  up)  cooling  water  returned  to  the  river,  and  (treated)  wastewater 
returned  to  surface  waters.  Per  sector,  water  consumption  factors  are  used  and  applied  to  split  water 
abstraction into net water consumption and return flow (Bisselink at al., 2018).  

Water abstractions take place at regional level, and also the WEI+ is therefore calculated at this regional level 
at a monthly timescale to avoid averaging skewed results. However, in this report the results are converted to 
a daily scale. 

WEI+ values have a range between 0 and 1. For distinguish water scarcity gradations across Europe, we used 
the water scarcity values as applied by the EEA Values between 0-0.1 denote “low water scarcity”, “moderate 
water scarcity” if the ratio lies in the range 0.1-0.2, “water scarcity” when this ratio is in larger than 0.2, and 
“severe water scarcity” if the ratio exceeds the 0.4 threshold (Faergemann, 2012).  

First,  we  performed  future  projections  without  socio-economic  developments  to  show  the  effect  of  climate 
change  only.  Next,  an  integrated  assessment  is  performed  including  future  changes  in  land  use,  water 
demand  and  population.  This  allows  us  to  disentangle  the  effects  of  climate  and  socio-economic  changes. 
More details on the methodology can be found in Annex 1.       

5 

 
 
 
 
 
3.  Results 

In this chapter, we first evaluate the projected changes in water availability (section 3.1) and how these are 
reflected in terms of water scarcity (section 3.2). In section 3.3, we put the future projections of water scarcity 
into  a  societal  perspective  by  estimating  how  many  people  are  living  in  water scarcity  areas  (section  3.3.1) 
and how much GVA is exposed to water scarcity (section 3.3.2). 

3.1 Change in average water availability  

In Figure 1 the projected  change in water availability, expressed as the median streamflow (50th  percentile, 
Q5O), under the 1.5oC, 2oC and 3oC GWLs is presented. Southern European countries are projected to face  a 
progressively  decrease  in  water  availability,  particularly  Spain,  Portugal,  Greece,  Cyprus,  Malta,  Italy  and 
Turkey. Central and Northern European countries show an increase in the average annual water availability.     

Figure 1. Projected change in average Q50 (median streamflow) compared with the baseline (1981-2010) for a global 
temperature increase of (a) 1.5oC, (b) 2oC, and (c) 3oC.  

3.2 Present and future water scarcity  

In present climate, southern regions of Europe already face water stress conditions, with the annual average 
WEI+ varying between 0.1-0.3 (Figure 2a) in the Mediterranean region1. During up to 4 months per year the 
WEI+  value  is  higher  than  0.2  in  the  most  southern  parts  of  Europe  (Figure  2b).  The  highest  average  WEI+ 
values, up to 0.5, are found in Spain. These regions presently experience water stress up to 6 months a year. 
During  summer  WEI+  can  be  close  to  1.0,  meaning  that  all  possible  water  is  being  used,  and  often  also  a 
substantial amount of non-renewable groundwater. 

Under the 1.5oC GWL, the WEI+ values are increasing. In Figure 3, we consider the spatial pattern of change in 
average  WEI+  for  the  GWLs  relative  to  the  baseline.  The  largest  increases  take  place  in  the  Mediterranean 
region.  

For the 2oC and even more pronounced for the 3oC GWL, the WEI+ values are exacerbating in already existing 
water scarce areas and moreover new water scarce areas are created in countries further north like Germany, 
Bulgaria, Romania and France. 

1 Note that environmental flow is taken into account in the  LISFLOOD model, but is not reflected in the commonly used 
definition of WEI+. LISFLOOD uses an environmental flow threshold equal to Q10. Thus, if local discharge falls below 
the  10th  percentile  Q,  further  water  abstractions  from  that  location  are  not  allowed,  and  the  model  flags  those 
amounts. The WEI+ reflects the real net water consumption versus total water availability, so not putting aside an 
amount of environmental flow not part of this total availability. 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                           
Figure 2. (a) Estimated average WEI+ and (b) the number of days per year in areas with a WEI+ exceeding 0.2 for the 
baseline scenario (1981-2010).  

Figure 3. Projected change in average WEI+ compared with the baseline (Figure 2a) for a global temperature increase of 
(a) 1.5oC, (b) 2oC, and (c) 3oC.  

Apart from an intensification of water scarcity under global warming, the duration of the water scarcity period 
in a year is projected to increase as well. In Figure 4, the change in water scarcity days relative to the baseline 
is  presented  for  the  three  GWLs.  Water  scarcity  is  projected  to  gradually  increase  in  duration  from  present 
climate towards the 3oC warming levels in the Mediterranean regions, especially in the Iberian Peninsula. Here, 
the number of water scarcity days can increase up to more than 1 month per year for the 3oC warming levels 
compared to the present day climate baseline. 

7 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure  4.  Projected  change  in  water  scarcity  days  (WEI+  >  0.2)  in  a  year  compared  with  the  baseline (Figure  2b)  for  a 
global temperature increase of (a) 1.5oC, (b) 2oC, and (c) 3oC.  

3.3 Socio-economic impacts of future water scarcity  

Section 3.3.1 describes the amount population affected by different gradations of water stress. Section 3.3.2 
describes the amount of GVA exposed to different gradations of water stress. We present one series of 
analysis of the climate impact under un-changed land use, population, and water demand changes. Another 
series of analysis shows the simulations including the effect of climate change with socio-economic 
developments, so including future changes in land use, water demand and population. 

3.3.1 Population  

In  this  section,  we  aim  to  put  the  water  scarcity  projections  into  a  societal  perspective  by  estimating  how 
many people will be living in areas with different gradations of water scarcity. The results from Figure 5 are 
based on simulations including the effect of climate change but without socio-economic developments, while 
in Figure 6 and integrated assessment is performed including future changes in land use, water demand and 
population.  This  allows  us  to  disentangle  the  effects  of  climate  and  socio-economic  changes.  The  ‘static’ 
simulated water scarce areas are overlaid with the population of the year 2010 and the ‘dynamic’ simulations 
are  overlaid  with  the  population  of  2050.  As a  3oC  scenario  is not  realistic in  2050, only  the  1.5oC  and 2oC 
warming period are considered within the simulations including socio-economic developments. 

In the present climate, 51.9 million people in the EU+UK are living under water scarcity (WEI+ > 0.2) , which is 
10.5%  of  the  total  population.  The  most  people  exposed  to  water  scarcity  are  living  in  the  Mediterranean 
region (48.1 million) from which almost half are in Spain (22.4 million; Annex 2). The other exposed people are 
living  in  the  Atlantic  region  (3.6  million;  France).  In  the  Continental  region  very  few  people  are  living  under 
water scarcity and in the Boreal region people are not exposed to  water scarcity, but solely to low (WEI+ 0-
0.1) or moderate water scarcity (WEI+ 0.1-0.2).  

Under  global  warming  levels,  the  number  of  people  living  under  water  scarcity  in  the  EU+UK  is  gradually 
increasing  up  to  59.3  million  when  limiting  global  warming  to  1.5oC.  This  is  an  increase  of  7.4  million  as 
compared to baseline climate. 

Under the 2oC GWL the number of exposed people to  water scarcity increases up to 60.5 million people, an 
increase  of  8.6  million  as  compared  to  the  baseline.  Under  the  3oC  GWL  the  number  of  exposed  people  to 
water scarcity increases up to 64.6 million people, an increase of 12.7 million compared to the baseline. The 
number of people living under severe water scarcity is projected to remain more or less constant for present 
climate, 1.5oC and the 2oC GWLs, but increases with 7.7 million under the 3oC GWL.  

In the EU people affected by water scarcity mostly live in Mediterranean countries.  

8 

 
 
 
 
 
Figure 5. Projected number of people living in different gradations of water scarcity (WS) solely due to climate change for 
the baseline and under the different warming levels2.  

For the Atlantic countries, the number of people living in water scarce areas remain constant under the GWLs 
compared with present climate. In both the Atlantic and Continental countries we do project a gradual shift of 
people  who  live  nowadays  in  low  water  scarce  areas  to  moderate  water  scarce  areas  under  the  different 
GWLs.  

When we consider also population projections (Figure 6), an additional 0.6 and 0.8 million people are living in 
water scarce areas under the 1.5oC and 2oC GWLs, respectively. 

Due to the projected population growth in France and Italy our estimated number of affected people by water 
scarcity increases. However, the population living in severe water scarcity is projected to decline under global 
warming compared to the simulations that do not consider the socio-economic developments. In the countries 
where  the  people  are  the  most  exposed  to  severe  water  scarcity,  like  Spain  and  Greece,  the  population  is 
projected  to  remain  constant  or  declining,  and  therefore  the  amount  of  people  exposed  to  severe  water 
scarcity  is  also  remaining  constant  or  declining.  As  indicated  in  section  3.2  however,  the  magnitude  and 
duration of the severe water scarcity is projected to increase considerably. 

2 Mediterranean: Portugal, Spain, Italy, Croatia, Greece, Malta and Cyprus. Atlantic: France, Belgium, Netherlands, UK and 
Ireland.  Continental:  Germany,  Luxembourg,  Austria,  Czech  Republic,  Denmark,  Poland,  Slovakia,  Slovenia,  Bulgaria, 
Romania and Hungary. Boreal: Sweden, Finland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania 

9 

 
 
  
                                           
Due to the projected population growth in France, the projected amount of people living in water scarce areas 
in the Atlantic countries is increasing as well. 

Due to the projected population decline in most of the Continental and Boreal countries, the projected amount 
of  people  living  in  moderate  water  scarce  areas  is  lower  than  compared  to  the  simulations  without  socio-
economic developments. 

Figure 6. Projected number of people living in different gradations of water scarcity (WS) due to climate change as well 
as socio-economic developments (population, land use and water demand changes). 

3.3.2 Gross Value Added (GVA)  

Economic activity of an area is often measured in terms of GVA. Sectors, which rely on water to execute their 
activities might be affected by water shortages or restrictions under global warming.  The industrial sector is 
responsible for 40% of European water abstractions. Here, the GVA is extracted for the industry sectors that 
rely on water, including manufacturing industries, mining, construction and services (Bernhard et al., 2019a).  

In Figure 7 and 8  we present the GVA  values exposed to different  gradations of water scarcity. The results 
from  Figure  7  are  based  on  simulations  including  the  effect  of  climate  change  but  without  socio-economic 
developments, while in Figure 8 an integrated assessment is performed including future changes in land use, 
water demand and population. The ‘static’ simulated water scarce areas are overlaid with the GVA of the year 
2010 and the ‘dynamic’ simulations are overlaid with the GVA projection of 2050 for the 1.5oC and 2oC GWLs. 

10 

 
 
 
In the present climate, in the EU+UK, 995 €billion of the economic activity is exposed to water scarcity (WEI+ 
larger then 0.2), which is 9% of the 11108 €billion value of the EU+UK GVA. Of this total number, 882 €billion 
is  exposed  in  the  Mediterranean  (32%  of  the  total  of  2730  €billion  value  of  the  Mediterranean  GVA)  from 
which almost half is located in Spain (442 €billion, which is 46% of a total of 965 €billion of the Spanish GVA; 
Annex  2).  The  other  113  €billion  of  the  economic  activity  exposed  to  water  scarcity  can  be  found  in  the 
Atlantic regions (France) and to a much lesser extent in the Continental countries (Germany).  

The  exposure  of  the  economic  activity  to  water  scarcity  in  the  EU+UK  is  gradually  increasing  up  to  1257 
€billion  under  the  3oC  GWL,  which  is  an  increase  of  262  €billion  from  present  day  climate.  The  economic 
activity  exposed  to  severe  water  scarcity  are  more  or  less  constant  for  present  climate,  1.5oC  and  the  2oC 
GWLs, but increase with more than 99 €billion under the 3oC GWL.  

Figure 7. Projected GVA values exposed to different water scarcity (WS) gradations solely due to climate change for the 
baseline and under the different warming levels. 

For  the  Atlantic  countries,  the  economic  activity  exposed  to  water  scarcity  remain  constant  under  global 
warming  compared  with  present  climate.  The  most  pronounced  changes  for  both  the  Atlantic  and  the 
Continental countries can be found in the gradually increase of exposure of the economic activity to moderate 
water  scarcity.  In  the  Boreal  countries  no  changes  in  economic  activity  exposure  is  observed  under  global 
warming compared with present climate. 

Considering the GVA projection of 2050 (Figure 8), major changes are observed within in the EU as in all EU-
countries economic growth is projected. 

11 

 
 
 
In the EU and UK, an additional 703 €billion and 727 €billion economic activity is exposed to water scarcity 
under the 1.5oC and 2oC GWLs, respectively.  

For the Atlantic countries, the economic activity exposed to water scarcity is amplified to more or less twofold 
due to the economic growth in France compared to the simulations without socio-economic developments. In 
the  Continental  and  Boreal  countries  the  economic  activity  exposed  to  moderate  water  scarcity  are  also 
amplified to more or less twofold due to economic growth. 

Figure 8. Projected GVA values exposed of different water scarcity (WS) gradations due to climate change as 
well as socio-economic developments (population, land use and water demand changes). 

12 

 
 
 
 
4.  Conclusions 

The results  presented here are  based on 11 climate  models which  project  current and future  climate under 
two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenario. A 30-year window 
around the  year that  global  warming  reaches  1.5oC, 2oC  and 3oC  above  preindustrial  temperature  has  been 
analysed  and  compared  to  the  1981-2010  control  climate  window  (baseline).  The  three  GWLs  do  reflect 
different levels of mitigation.    

In  the  assessment  we  show  that  the  impact  of  climate  change  on  water  resources  in  the  EU  is  an 
intensification of water scarcity in already water scarce areas, as well as an increase in duration of the water 
scarcity. This is mainly affecting the Mediterranean countries. However, under 2 and 3°C global warming, we 
do observe an extension of water scarce areas further north in Central Europe as well.  

Our  projections  show  that  in  the  EU  climate  mitigation  can  considerably  reduce  the  number  of  people  and 
economic activity exposed to severe water scarcity (WEI+ > 0.4). In areas with severe water scarcity the use 
of water resources is often unsustainable, with a noticeable groundwater depletion.  

In the EU+UK, around 51.9 million people and 995 €billion economic activity are at present exposed to water 
scarcity (WEI+ > 0.2) from which 3.3 million people and 75 €billion economic activity to severe water scarcity.  

Even if we manage to pursue efforts to keep within a 1.5°C global warming level, the number of people and 
value of the economic activity exposed to water scarcity could still increase with 7.4 million (+14%) and 134 
€billion  (+13%)  compared  with  present  climate.  The  number  of  people  and  economic  activity  exposed  to 
severe  water  scarcity,  although  facing  intensified  and  longer  duration  severe  water  scarcity,  is  projected  to 
remain almost constant, + 2.4% and +1.3% respectively.  

With  unmitigated  climate  change  (3°C),  an  additional  7.7  million  people  and  99  €billion  economic  activity 
relative to 1.5°C GWL are projected to be exposed to severe water scarcity. Limiting warming to 1.5°C reduces 
the number of people and economic activity exposed to severe  water scarcity to 3.4 million and 76 €billion 
respectively. 

In current climate, solely people and economic activity in Spain (3.3 million; 75 €billion) are exposed to severe 
water  scarcity.  Without  stringent  mitigation  and  adaptation  actions,  people  and  economic  activity  in  Greece 
(3.9 million; 50 €billion) and Malta (0.4 million; 5 €billion) are projected to be exposed to severe water scarcity 
as  well.  In  other  countries  around  the  Mediterranean,  an  increase  in  the  number  of  people  and  economic 
activity is projected to have water scarcity exposure.     

Climate  change  is  the  main  driver  for  populations  to  be  exposed  to  water  stress  in  Southern  Europe. 
Demographic,  land  use  and  water  demand  changes  have  a  minor  effect  on  the  people  exposed  to  water 
scarcity. For example, the increase of number of people exposed to water scarcity in the 1.5°C warming period 
is  +15%,  an  additional  increase  of  only  1%  compared  to  the  static  population  scenario  due  to  population 
growth  in  France.  Considering  dynamic  population,  the  people  exposed  to  severe  water scarcity  in  the  EU  is 
decreasing with 3.4%, mainly due to population decline in Greece.  

The projections of the economic activity do have a major effect in amplifying the exposure to water scarcity in 
the EU. The number of economic activity exposed to water scarcity in the 1.5°C warming period increases by 
almost two-fold (+84%) compared to present climate from which 71% due to the rapid increase of economic 
activity  in  all  (Southern  European)  EU  countries.  The  economic  activity  exposed  to  severe  water  scarcity  is 
increasing with 68% to 126 €billion almost solely due to the increase of the economic activity.  

If  water  demand  remains  at  current  usage  levels  and  without  significant  water  saving  and/or  efficiency 
efforts,  the  warming  climate  and  reduced  precipitation  in  the  Mediterranean  causes  extreme  increases  in 
water scarcity. The people already exposed to water scarcity in the current climate will encounter much more 
intense  water  scarcity  under  a  changing  climate.  Under  an  unmitigated  climate,  many  people  in  the 
Mediterranean areas are projected to be exposed to severe water scarcity.  

The  severity  of  impacts  under  the  1.5°C,  2°C  and  3°C  warming  levels  suggests  that  various  adaptation 
mechanisms will be needed to lessen the effects of climate change on European water resources, particularly 
in  the  Mediterranean  region.  A  number  of  planned  adaptation  strategies  could  be  targeted  at  irrigation 
practices to lower pressures on water resources, e.g. increase irrigation efficiency. Several irrigation efficiency 
increase efforts are planned within the WFD Programs of Measures, but first calculations (JRC 2020 in prep) 
seem to indicate that these measures are likely not sufficient to counter the expected climate effects. 

13 

 
Water pricing for abstracting irrigation water – groundwater, surface water, or re-use of treated waste water, 
as well  as pricing  for  industrial  water,  and public  water,  could  create  incentives for  users  to  consider water 
savings, especially in the water scarce regions. Changing the rules for allocation and/or regulations might also 
be an alternative. Irrigation efficiency could be increased by changing irrigation methods (e.g., from sprinkling 
to drip irrigation), but this may only be feasible when irrigation water has a price. The investments for the drip 
irrigation technology need to be recovered by a reduced water bill. 

Furthermore, deficit irrigation strategies may lead to substantial water savings with only limited reductions in 
crop yields. Further research and field experimentations are necessary here.  

Other options  for  water saving  might  focus on  delivering  more  efficient  cooling  technologies that  lead  to a 
reduction in water use for producing energy. In addition, shifts from conventional energy production (coal, gas) 
to renewable energy production (wind, solar) could reduce cooling water demand and net water consumption.  

14 

 
 
 
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16 

 
 
 
 
Annexes 

Annex 1. Methodology 

A1.1 Climate projections  

Projections  of  water  scarcity  are  based  on  two  Representative  Concentration  Pathways  (RCPs):  RCP4.5  and 
RCP8.5. RCP4.5 may be viewed as a moderate-emissions-mitigation-policy scenario and RCP8.5 as a high-end 
emissions  scenario.  Statistical  and  quantitative  hazard  analyses  in  this  report  are  performed  over  30-year 
time periods. The reference scenario spans the period 1981-2010. We compare impacts for the baseline with 
those over 30-year time slices centred on the year that global average temperature is 1.5, 2 and 3°C above 
preindustrial  temperature  (Table  A1).  The  1.5°C  and  2°C  warming  scenarios  are  explicitly  considered  in  the 
Paris  Agreement,  while  a  3°C  global  warming  is  a  scenario  that  could  be  expected  by  the  end  of  the  21 st 
century if adequate mitigation strategies are not taken. 

Table A1. Regional climate projections used in the heat and cold impact analysis and corresponding year of exceeding 
1.5, 2 and 3°C warming. 

RCM (R) 

Driving GCM (G) 

RCP4.5 

RCP8.5 

RCP4.5 

RCP8.5 

RCP4.5 

RCP8.5 

1.5 °C 

2 °C 

3 °C 

CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 

2035 

2029 

2057 

2044 

CCLM4.8-17 

ICHEC-EC-EARTH 

2033 

2026 

2056 

2041 

MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR 

2034 

2028 

2064 

2044 

HIRHAM5 

ICHEC-EC-EARTH 

2032 

2028 

2054 

2043 

WRF331F 

IPSL-IPSL-CM5A-MR 

2023 

2021 

2042 

2035 

RACMO22E 

ICHEC-EC-EARTH 

2032 

2026 

2056 

2042 

CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 

2035 

2029 

2057 

2044 

ICHEC-EC-EARTH 

2033 

2026 

2056 

2041 

RCA4 

IPSL-IPSL-CM5A-MR 

2023 

2021 

2042 

2035 

2067 

2066 

2067 

2065 

2054 

2065 

2067 

2066 

2054 

MOHC-HadGEM2-ES 

2021 

2018 

2037 

2030 

2069 

2051 

MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR 

2034 

2028 

2064 

2044 

2067 

For each RCP an ensemble of 11 EURO-CORDEX combinations of Global Climate Models (GCM) and Regional 
Climate Models (RCM) were used (Jacob et al., 2014). Water scarcity conditions at 1.5° and 2°C warming were 
derived  from  an  ensemble  of  22  climate  projections  (11  RCP4.5  and  11  RCP8.5  members),  whereas  the 
ensemble projections for 3°C warming are based on RCP8.5 only, as 10 out of 11 RCP4.5 climate simulations 
do not reach 3°C warming.  

It should be noted that we derived climate at global warming levels from transient climate projections, which 
may differ from stabilized climate at those warming levels. Studies (e.g., Maule et al., 2017) suggest that the 
effect of pathway to global warming levels is small compared to the models’ variability, expect for strongly 
not time-invariant variables such as sea level rise.   

17 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A1.2 Socio-economic scenarios  

We  performed  the  model  assessment  with  static  as  well  as  with  dynamic  socio-economic  conditions  in 
Europe.  The  static  approach  provides  information  on  how  climate  change  only  affect  today’s  societies  in 
Europe at different GWLs. For the static maps, 2010 is the reference year. 

The future projections of land use in Europe are derived from the LUISA modelling platform (Jacobs-Crisioni 
et  al.,  2017).    LUISA  translates  socio-economic  trends  and  policy  scenarios  into  processes  of  territorial 
development.  Among  other  things,  LUISA  allocates  (in  space  and  time)  population,  economic  activities  and 
land use patterns which are constrained by biophysical suitability, policy targets, economic criteria and many 
other  factors.  Except  from  the  constraints,  LUISA  incorporates  historical  trends,  current  state  and  future 
projections in order to capture the complex interactions between human activities and their determinants. The 
mechanisms to obtain land-use  demands are  described in Baranzelli et al. (2014) and Jacobs-Crisioni et al. 
(2017).  Key  outputs  of  the  LUISA  platform  are  fine  resolution  maps  (100m)  of  accessibility,  population 
densities and land-use  patterns covering all  EU member states and the UK,  Serbia, Bosnia Herzegovina and 
Montenegro  until  2050.  Corine  land  use  maps  are  used  to  cover  the  rest  of  Europe.  Although  LISFLOOD 
normally operates on a substantially coarser resolution, the details of the LUISA output will remain for a large 
part due to the use of sub-grid fractions in LISFLOOD as explained in Section A1.3. For a complete description 
of the LUISA modelling platform and its underlying mechanics we refer to (Batista e Silva et al., 2013; Lavalle 
et al., 2011). 

Water demand in LISFLOOD consist of five components from which the irrigation water demand is estimated 
dynamically  within  the  model  as  it  is  driven  by  climate  conditions.  The  irrigation  water  demand  with  a 
distinction  in  simulation  methods  for  crop  irrigation  and  paddy  rice  irrigation  is  described  in  Bisselink  et  al. 
(2018).  

The  other  four  sectorial  components  are  used  as  input  data.  These  are  (manufacturing)  industrial  water 
demand,  water  demand  for  energy  and  cooling,  livestock  water  demand  and  domestic  water  demand.  Per 
sector, water consumption factors are used and applied to split water abstraction into net water consumption 
and return flow (Bisselink at al., 2018).  

In general, water use estimated for these four sectors are derived from mainly country-level data (EUROSTAT, 
AQUASTAT) with different modelling and downscaling techniques as described in Vandecasteele et al. (2014). 
Output of the JRC LUISA land use projection platform is used for the spatial downscaling of both present and 
future  water  use  trends  to  ensure  consistency  between  land  use,  population  and  water  demand.  A  brief 
description of each sectorial component is given below. 

Livestock  water  withdrawals  are  estimated  by  combining  water  requirements  from  literature  with  livestock 
density maps for cattle, pigs, poultry, sheep and goats. The methods are described in detail by Mubareka et al. 
(2013).  

For  the  energy  and  cooling  demand,  national  water  use  statistics  are  downscaled  to  the  locations  of  large 
power thermal power stations registered in the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register data base 
(E-PRTR). Subsequently, the temporal trend of energy water use is simulated based on electricity consumption 
projections from the POLES model (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). 

Industrial  water  demands  are  based  on  country-level  Figures  from  national  statistics  offices  for  the  total 
water use by manufacturing industries, mining, construction and services. Future industrial water use trends 
are simulated based on GVA projections for these sub-sectors from the GEM-E3 model to represent industrial 
activity  and  an  efficiency  factor,  based  on  historical  trends,  to  represent  improving  water  efficiency  due  to 
technical developments (Bernhard et al. 2019a). Since the GEM-E3 model only provide projections for the EU 
and UK, industrial water use projections are assumed constant for countries outside the EU. 

Water  demands  for  the  household  sector  are  derived  from  a  specific  household  water  usage  module 
(Bernhard  et  al.  2019b)  which  simulates  water  use  per  capita  based  on  socio-economic,  demographic  and 
climate variables. This model was based on collected data at NUTS-3 from 2000-2013 for all EU countries 
and the UK on household water use, water price, income, age distribution and number of dry days per year. 
Subsequently, regression models were fitted to quantify relationships between water use, water price and the 
other  relevant  variables  for  four  European  clusters  of  NUTS-3  regions  with  similar  socio-economic  and 
climate  conditions.  This  household  water  usage  module  allows  us  to  estimate  present  and  future  domestic 
water use per capita at NUTS-3 level using socio-economic, demographic and climate projections. The water 
use per capita are multiplied with population maps from the LUISA platform from 2010 up to 2050 for every 
5  years.  For  the  years  in  between  the  5yr-window  a  linear  growth  is  assumed.  Consumptive  use  for  the 

18 

 
domestic sector is assumed at 20% (EEA, 2005) meaning that 80% flows back in the hydrological system as 
waste water. 

A1.3 Hydrological simulations and water scarcity indicator 

Hydrological simulations have been performed with the JRC’ LISFLOOD water resources model. LISFLOOD is a 
GIS-based  spatially-distributed  hydrological  rainfall-runoff  model  (De  Roo  et  al., 2000;  Van  der Knijff  et  al., 
2010; Burek et al., 2013). Most hydrological processes in every grid-cell defined in the modelled domain are 
reproduced and the produced runoff is routed through the river network. 

Although LISFLOOD is a regular grid-based model with a constant spatial grid more detailed sub-grid land use 
classes  are  used  to  simulate  the  main  hydrological  processes.  The  model  distinguishes  for  each  grid  the 
fraction open water, urban sealed area, forest area, paddy rice irrigated area, crop irrigation area and other 
land  uses.  Specific  hydrological  processes  (evapotranspiration,  infiltration  etc.)  are  then  calculated  in  a 
different  way  for  these  land  use  classes.  Moreover,  sub-gridded  elevation  information  is  used  to  establish 
detailed altitude zones which are important for snow accumulation and melting processes, and to correct for 
surface temperature. 

Water  demands  (public  water,  livestock  water,  industrial  water,  cooling  water  for  the  energy  sector,  and 
irrigation)  are  abstracted  from  surface  and/or  groundwater  resources  (depending  on  the  region)  when 
available, taken into account the E-flow threshold in rivers, which is a constant (10th percentile of the natural 
discharge). Irrigation water demand is embedded in the  model as this is dependent  on the  climate.  Using a 
Penman-Monteith approach, the model estimates the required amount of transpiration by vegetation or crop. 
If this amount of water is not available from soil moisture above wilting point level, the missing amount is 
designated as the irrigation water demand. 

For the analysis of water scarcity changes under global warming, LISFLOOD was forced with the ensemble of 
22 (11 RCP4.5 + 11 RCP8.5) CORDEX climate simulations from 1981 up to 2100. LISFLOOD simulations were 
performed  at  5  ×  5  km2  resolution  grid  over  the  extended  European  domain,  which  includes  all  the  EU 
countries,  as  well  as  some  neighbouring  ones  such  as  Albania,  Bosnia  –  Herzegovina,  Iceland,  Moldova, 
Montenegro, the Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Norway, Serbia, and Switzerland at a daily time step.  

In  this study, the  WEI+  indicator is used  to  determine  water scarcity.  The  WEI+  is defined  here  as the  total 
water net consumption divided by the freshwater resources of a region. The freshwater resources taken into 
account  to  calculate  the  WEI+  include  locally  generated  runoff  and  inflowing  surface  water  from  upstream 
countries, lake and reservoir variable storage, and annual groundwater recharge.  The WEI+ is determined at 
monthly timescale to avoid averaging skewed results. As LISFLOOD includes a water abstraction functionality 
we use water regions to calculate the WEI+. As we do not know the precise location of the water abstraction 
for a certain activity, we assume the abstraction may well take place in the regional sub-river basin in which 
the activity is situated. This sub-basin consist then of several individual model pixels. This prevents artefacts 
of calculating water scarcity that in reality does not exist. LISFLOOD can simulate with any user-defined water 
region  map.  Here,  we  defined  water  regions  as  sub-river  basins  within  a  single  country.  Cross-border 
abstractions  are  not  assumed.  Abstraction  thus  take  place  at  regional  level,  and  also  the  WEI+  is  then 
calculated at this  regional level. For the socio-economic impacts (population and GVA) of  water scarcity the 
regional values are then aggregated to country scale or even larger (EU+UK). 

The  WEI+  values  are  ranging  between  0  and  1.  A  high  WEI+  index  highlights  the  regions  with  a  net  high 
consumptive use of water. A threshold value for the WEI above 0.4 is often used to indicate that a region is 
severely water scarce. A WEI+ larger than 0.2 indicates a water scarce region. A WEI+ in the range 0.1-0.2 is 
classified  as  moderate  water  scarce,  and  a  WEI+  lower  than  0.1  is  indicating  a  low  water  scarce  area 
(Faergemann, 2012).  

19 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Annex 2. Extended results 

The following sections present the projected number of people (A2.1) or GVA (A2.2) in different gradations of 
water scarcity for the baseline and GWLs aggregated at country scale.  

A2.1 Population  

Figure A1. Projected number of people living in different gradations of water scarcity (WS) solely due to climate change 
for the baseline and under the different warming levels for the Mediterranean countries.  Note that in Croatia no changes 
are observed and therefore Croatia is not presented. 

20 

 
 
 
Figure A2. As in Figure A1 but results are from simulations including socio-economic developments. 

21 

 
 
 
Figure A3. Projected number of people living in different gradations of water scarcity (WS) solely due to climate change 
for  the  baseline  and  under  the  different  warming  levels  for  the  Atlantic,  Continental  and  Boreal  countries.  Note  that  in 
Ireland,  UK,  Finland,  Latvia,  Estonia,  Austria,  Slovenia,  Czech  Republic,  Slovakia,  Denmark  and  Luxembourg  no  or  very 
minimalistic changes are observed and therefore not presented. 

22 

 
 
 
 
Figure A4. As in Figure A3 but results are from simulations including socio-economic developments. 

23 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A2.2 GVA  

Figure  A5.  Projected  GVA  values  in  different  gradations  of  water  scarcity  (WS)  solely  due  to  climate  change  for  the 
baseline  and  under  the  different  warming  levels.  Note  that  in  Croatia  no  changes  are  observed  and  therefore  it  is  not 
presented. 

24 

 
 
 
 
Figure A6. As in Figure A5 but results are from simulations including socio-economic developments. 

25 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure  A7.  Projected  GVA  values  in  different  gradations  of  water  scarcity  (WS)  solely  due  to  climate  change  for  the 
baseline and under the different warming levels for the Atlantic, Continental and Boreal countries. Note that in Ireland, UK, 
Finland,  Latvia,  Estonia,  Austria,  Slovenia,  Czech  Republic,  Slovakia,  Denmark  and  Luxembourg  no  or  very  minimalistic 
changes are observed and therefore these countries are not presented. 

26 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure A8. As in Figure A7 but results are from simulations including socio-economic developments. 

27 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
List of abbreviations 

EEA 

GCM 

GVA 

GWL 

RCP  

RCM 

SoE 

European Environment Agency 

Global Climate Model 

Gross Value Added 

Global Warming Level 

Representative Concentration Pathway 

Regional Climate Model 

State of Environment 

WEI+ 

Water Exploitation Index +  

WFD 

Water Framework Directive 

WS 

Water Scarcity 

28 

 
 
 
 
List of Figures 

Figure 1. Projected change in average Q50 (median streamflow) compared with the baseline (1981-2010) 
for a global temperature increase of (a) 1.5oC, (b) 2oC, and (c) 3oC. ..................................................................................................6 

Figure 2. (a) Estimated average WEI+ and (b) the number of days per year in areas with a WEI+ exceeding 
0.2 for the baseline scenario (1981-2010). .......................................................................................................................................................7 

Figure 3. Projected change in average WEI+ compared with the baseline (Figure 2a) for a global temperature 
increase of (a) 1.5oC, (b) 2oC, and (c) 3oC. ............................................................................................................................................................7 

Figure 4. Projected change in water scarcity days (WEI+ > 0.2) in a year compared with the baseline (Figure 
2b) for a global temperature increase of (a) 1.5oC, (b) 2oC, and (c) 3oC. .........................................................................................8 

Figure 5. Projected number of people living in different gradations of water scarcity (WS) solely due to 
climate change for the baseline and under the different warming levels. ....................................................................................9 

Figure 6. Projected number of people living in different gradations of water scarcity (WS) due to climate 
change as well as socio-economic developments (population, land use and water demand changes). ................. 10 

Figure 7. Projected GVA values exposed to different water scarcity (WS) gradations solely due to climate 
change for the baseline and under the different warming levels. ................................................................................................... 11 

Figure 8. Projected GVA values exposed of different water scarcity (WS) gradations due to climate change as 
well as socio-economic developments (population, land use and water demand changes)........................................... 12 

Figure A1. Projected number of people living in different gradations of water scarcity (WS) solely due to 
climate change for the baseline and under the different warming levels for the Mediterranean countries. Note 
that in Croatia no changes are observed and therefore Croatia is not presented. ............................................................... 20 

Figure A2. As in Figure A1 but results are from simulations including socio-economic developments. ............... 21 

Figure A3. Projected number of people living in different gradations of water scarcity (WS) solely due to 
climate change for the baseline and under the different warming levels for the Atlantic, Continental and 
Boreal countries. Note that in Ireland, UK, Finland, Latvia, Estonia, Austria, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, 
Denmark and Luxembourg no or very minimalistic changes are observed and therefore not presented. ............ 22 

Figure A4. As in Figure A3 but results are from simulations including socio-economic developments. ............... 23 

Figure A5. Projected GVA values in different gradations of water scarcity (WS) solely due to climate change 
for the baseline and under the different warming levels. Note that in Croatia no changes are observed and 
therefore it is not presented. ................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 

Figure A6. As in Figure A5 but results are from simulations including socio-economic developments. ............... 25 

Figure A7. Projected GVA values in different gradations of water scarcity (WS) solely due to climate change 
for the baseline and under the different warming levels for the Atlantic, Continental and Boreal countries. 
Note that in Ireland, UK, Finland, Latvia, Estonia, Austria, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Denmark and 
Luxembourg no or very minimalistic changes are observed and therefore these countries are not presented. 26 

Figure A8. As in Figure A7 but results are from simulations including socio-economic developments. ............... 27 

29 

 
 
 
 
 
List of tables 

Table A1. Regional climate projections used in the heat and cold impact analysis and corresponding year of 
exceeding 1.5, 2 and 3°C warming. ..................................................................................................................................................................... 17 

30 

 
 
 
 
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