Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2020. Spring 2020.
Date: 2020-04-22
Institutions: Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development
Subjects: EU agricultural market, agricultural economics, agricultural policy, agricultural production, agricultural productivity, economic forecasting, farm income, macroeconomics

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK

FOR EU AGRICULTURAL MARKETS
IN 2020

SPRING 2020
Edition N°26

Agriculture
and Rural 
Development

Executive Summary

Manuscript completed in April 2020
European Commission
© European Union, 2020
Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. 
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EN PDF ISSN  2600-0873

KF-AR-20-001-EN-N

While all efforts are made to provide sound market projections, uncertainties remain. 
The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of the European Commission.

Contact: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, Analysis and Outlook Unit 
Email: agri-outlook@ec.europa.eu
https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/farming/facts-and-figures/markets/outlook/short-term_en
Please cite this publication as: EC (2020), Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2020.
European Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural Development, Brussels.

Highlights

This short-term outlook edition coincides with the

unfolding of

the Covid-19 crisis, making the

exercise

exceptionally

challenging.

Market

forecasts are based on market

intelligence

available at the beginning of April 2020 and

reflect the Covid-19 impact to the extent possible,

with all the caveats and limitations in view of the

rapidly evolving situation. In addition, for the first

time market outlooks are presented for EU-27,

and assume a frictionless trade between the EU

and the UK in 2020.

its

and

outbreak

Covid-19

dramatic
The
consequences have cast a fresh light on the
food supply
importance of maintaining resilient
chains. With no concerns of food shortage, the EU
agri-food sector has so far responded remarkably
well to challenges of historical magnitude. Thanks to
sustained food demand, EU agriculture has suffered
relatively less damage compared to other parts of the
economy which are being more affected by lockdown
specific
measures. There have been, however,
impacts and certain agricultural sectors have been hit
more severely than others. Beyond labour issues and
logistical bottlenecks, the EU food supply chain has to
continue adapting to rapid changes in demand, with
strong uncertainties on the duration of the crisis and
the recovery path in the EU and globally.

the immediate impact has been
In the EU,
concentrated in logistics, with disruptions in just-in-
time supply chains, which have by and large subsided
in a matter of days following health policy measures.
Ensuring free movement of both labour and goods,
within the EU and globally, will remain critical.

In the short term, confinement measures and the
closure of sectors like hospitality, tourism or travel
have required redirecting supplies from foodservices
to retail for direct purchase by consumers locked down
at home, with further challenges due to differences in
consumption patterns and packaging.

Highlights

Despite these early signs of resilience of the EU
agri-food sector, the expected depth of the economic
recession is bound to significantly impact food demand,
that of high-value products, animal
in particular
products such as dairy, and export-oriented sectors
such as wine. However, compared to the 2010 crisis,
when stocks of agricultural bulk commodities were
historically low, current stocks are high and harvest
prospects correct. Input costs have declined, with very
low energy costs which should be translated in lower
fertiliser prices.

The extent and the recovery path of the current crisis
remain to be seen, especially because of
the
asymmetry in its geographical distribution: starting in
Asia, moving to Europe and then the Americas, with
worrying signs in Africa.

The length of lockdown measures, the exit strategies
and the economic stimulus which will be implemented
in the EU and globally, as well as international
cooperation to avoid trade-restrictive measures, will be
crucial in this respect.

- Confinement measures adopted by the majority of
led to stockpiling behaviour at
Member States
household level and short-lived spikes in retail sales.
Staple food profited the most from the switch to home
consumption: pasta, rice, flour, potatoes, canned fruit
and vegetables, UHT milk, orange juice, tomato sauce
and olive oil, reflecting varying national food cultures.
Consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables, and fresh
dairy products has also risen. At the same time, a
massive increase of demand for e-commerce has been
observed, and direct sales by farmers to consumers
have reportedly been boosted.

- Compared to foodservice, food consumed at home
differs in terms of product characteristics, packaging,
quality and volume. For example, high-value beef cuts
or lamb, wine and specialty cheeses see a larger share
of their output consumed in restaurants. Temporary
lack of packaging material has also been signalled.

- Restrictions of movement and controls at national
borders within the EU have created obstacles in
deliveries of agricultural raw materials and food in the
first half of March 2020. The early adoption of EU
guidelines for border management measures, to protect
health and ensure the availability of goods and
essential services (including green lanes for transport
of all goods), has quickly helped improving the
situation.

Highlights

- Labour availability remains a key concern, at all levels
of
the food supply chain. Health reasons and
restrictions on free movement of people may
temporarily reduce the availability of workers, from
farms to transport, from warehouses and ports to retail.
In addition to increasing transport costs, this could
affect the product mix, favouring less labour-intensive
products, e.g. milk powders in the case of dairy. Cross-
border and seasonal labour is crucial in sectors like fruit
and vegetables, and shortages in the upcoming harvest
season would be a negative factor.

spread,

together with

- The asymmetric geographical distribution of the Covid-
19
hygiene
requirements, has an impact on the fluidity and volumes
of trade flows. While the functioning of ports has not
been disrupted, the availability of containers remains an
issue regularly mentioned by operators. At the time of

increased

the crisis peak in China, many ports were blocked due to
the lack of workers and loading and unloading of
containers was delayed, resulting in a backlog which
from. Difficulties are also
takes time to recover
mentioned on road freight, where return trips are often
linked to non-essential economic activities that have
stopped. All these challenges have resulted in increased
transport and logistical costs, which may sooner or later
be reflected in food prices.

Input markets outlook

Food value chains include accessibility of inputs that
are needed to produce food. This would include seeds
fieldwork
and fertilizers, plant protection products,
machinery (including spare parts) and feed additives as
well as veterinary products for animals.

The EU is not self-sufficient in certain inputs such as

fertilizers and is importing products from
mineral
Eastern European countries (Belarus, Ukraine, Russia)
and North Africa (Algeria, Morocco).

As regards plant protection products and micro-
nutrients for compound feed, the EU is importing from
third countries,
in particular China. While detailed
quantitative data are not available, no major long-term
trade disruptions and accessibility issues have been
reported across the EU.

Agricultural markets outlook

2019/2020

In the grains and oilseeds market, ample global stocks,
sizeable
EU and
harvest
neighbouring countries, and good prospects in the
Americas for the next crop should allow a satisfactory
supply of the market in the coming months.

the

in

Highlights

In the oilseeds market, a decrease in EU rapeseed
production and reduced demand for oilseeds, linked to
a decline in biofuels demand due to low oil prices, could
result in an overall lower supply of proteins.

In the apples and oranges markets, no Covid-19-
related production impacts are expected in the current
marketing year. Demand for less perishable fruits like
apples and oranges is strong.

In the sugar market, very low energy prices and lower
demand for gasoline push the ethanol production down,
is expected to be produced
and more white sugar
instead of ethanol. With higher global supply than
anticipated, world sugar prices dropped.

In the olive oil market, availabilities should remain high
as an average production is expected, combined with a
high level of beginning stocks. Due to stockpiling, some
demand recovery could be expected in the main
producing Member States, but consumption in the non-
producing Member States is likely to decrease.

In the wine market, on top of Covid-19 challenges
resulting in declining exports, US tariffs remain an
important challenge. Confinement measures could also
affect EU consumption negatively.

In the dairy market, the coincidence of the spring peak
of production in the EU with the Covid-19 outbreak
exacerbates the downward price impact and could
favour the production of more storable and less labour-
intensive dairy products (milk powders) over others. The
closure of foodservice and outdoor/farmers’ markets
negatively affects some high-value added products
(e.g. PGI/PDO cheeses). On the other hand, other dairy
products could benefit from increased retail sales.

In the meat market, the switch from foodservice to
home consumption and the capacity of retail to market
additional meat products may influence production,
particularly for beef and sheep meat that are more
negatively impacted. Despite high prices, pigmeat
production growth will be limited by environmental
restrictions and remaining African Swine Fever risk. Due
to the Covid-19 crisis, the transport of live animals
could be restricted.

The particularly severe impact of the Covid-19 crisis on
the flower and nursery sector, not covered in this report,
needs to be mentioned, with a range of factors: most
outlets have been closed (except retailers and nurseries
in some Member States), Easter was one of the three
demand peaks in the year, and air freight has been
halted.

MACRO-
ECONOMIC 
OUTLOOK

Macroeconomic background

Uncertainties around Covid-19

The unprecedented situation amidst Covid-19 crisis
gives signals for a major multi-faceted economic
shock, which is expected to last at least until
mid-2021.

However, it is still early to say how deep the shock
will be, and to predict the speed and shape of the
recovery, especially as the crisis affects regions at
different times.

situation will very much
The macroeconomic
depend on the effectiveness of economic stimulus
measures undertaken or being considered by
governments across the world.

Confinement measures to reduce 
economic activities

As the virus spreads, countries aim at limiting
physical contact between people by imposing
confinement measures.

Early April, IHS Markit estimates that about half of
global private consumption expenditures are at risk,
especially in transport services, recreation, hotels
and restaurants. The impact is due to hit economies
differently, as the share of reliance on tourism
differs.

Demand for transportation fuel plummets due to
confinement measures. Some airline companies
have completely suspended all flights for several
weeks. Overall transport fuel use could decrease by
up to 50% during the confinement period.

On the supply side, the breakdown of oil price
discipline early March brings an additional shock.
With producers falling short of storage capacity, the
Brent crude oil price hit a lowest point in the second
half of March at USD 25/barrel. Early April, OPEC
producers agreed to cut supply to keep prices under
control, however it is still unclear how that move
will succeed.

World crude oil price forecasts, Brent 
(USD/barrel)

80

60

40

20

0

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Nov. 2019

March 2020

preliminary April 2020

Source: IHS Markit.

7

Macroeconomic background

Global recession expected

Consumer price index to drop

Real GDP growth rate forecasts

Consumer price index change rate forecasts

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

Euro area, November 2019
Euro area, March 2020
Euro area, preliminary April 2020

World, November 2019
World, March 2020
World, preliminary April 2020

Euro area, November 2019 World, November 2019
Euro area, March 2020

World, March 2020

Source: IHS Markit.

Source: IHS Markit.

According to the IMF, the magnitude of the crisis could be far worse than that
of 2008-2009: the world economy could contract by 3% year-on-year in
2020, and by 7.5% in the euro area. It could rebound in 2021 to 5.8%, and to
4.7% in the euro area.

Over 2020 and 2021, the IMF estimates that the cumulative loss to global
GDP could amount to USD 9 trillion, which is almost half of EU’s GDP.

With a possible stagnation of economic growth and a likely recession,
unemployment rates across the EU are likely to increase. This would set
pressure on overall consumption in value terms, and particularly value chains
targeted to export markets, as well as tourism and foodservice. As a result,
agricultural income will remain under pressure in this economic environment.

8

Market developments in the EU

ARABLE
CROPS

Trade is estimated based on a business as usual scenario average. Projections for 2021 calendar year are based on a
purely technical assumption of status quo in terms of trading relations between the EU and the UK. This is for
forecasting purposes only and reflects no anticipation or prediction of the outcome of the negotiations between the EU
and the UK on their future relationship. This means that the 2021 projection does not reflect the fact that, even in a
scenario where a free trade agreement is concluded, the resulting situation will be less beneficial to EU-UK trading
relations than when the UK was in the Internal Market and the Customs Union.

For confidentiality reasons with regard to Member States notifications on stocks, EU+UK sugar balances are presented in
this report.

•Note: % compared to previous season

9

k
c
o
t
S

i

l

u
a
g

.
l

e
w
a
p
©

CEREALS2019/20202020/2021Production+9.4%-2.2%Exports+40%-18%Imports-8.3%-12%Consumption+4.8%-2.9%PROTEINCROPS2019/20202020/2021Production+4.8%+4.4%Exports-6.3%-3.3%Imports-13%-14%Consumption+0.2%+0.0%OILSEEDS2019/20202020/2021Production-10%+7.7%Exports+3.3%-2.0%Imports+8.9%-2.5%Consumption-1.5%+0.7%SUGAR2018/20192019/2020Production-17%-1.5%Exports-52%-32%Imports+47%+6.7%Consumption-2.8%-1.0% 
World stock-to-use ratios 

Cereals

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Wheat

Maize

Soya beans

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on International Grains Council.

EU cereal net trade (million t)

s
t
r
o
p
x
E

s
t
r
o
p
m

I

60

40

20

0

20

40

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20f

Wheat

Barley

other coarse grains

Maize

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

Ample grain supplies in the world market

Ample global cereal availability characterises the current marketing year 2019/2020, despite the 
decline in US maize production. Following current projections, 2020/2021 global production could 
reach a new peak. The wheat and maize crops are expected to be historically high. Crop conditions in 
the US are favourable with good soil moisture combined with a rebound in total acreage. Russia and 
Ukraine expect an increased production of wheat and maize, respectively. 
Recently, the world wheat market has been dynamic. Sudden peaks in wheat demand from importing 
countries and trade-limiting policies lifted the world prices (reaching last year’s level). Rice exporting 
countries also implemented trade restrictions, e.g. Cambodia and Vietnam.
Nevertheless, given ample supplies worldwide, prices are relatively stable. Wheat prices increased 
while maize prices are low due to the drop in ethanol demand/production in the US.
High availability and dynamic trade for the EU
The EU cereals crop in 2019/2020 reached 294 million t (+4.5% compared to the 5-year average). 
Wheat production reached 131 million t, barley 55 million t and maize 70 million t. 
Trade is dynamic on the export side, with EU wheat becoming more competitive. EU wheat exports 
should reach 31.8 million t. Barley exports are also picking up at 10.8 million t, after a 3-year low. On 
the import side, maize imports are expected at 19.4 million t (+34% vs 5-year average). Durum 
wheat imports should reach 2.1 million t. Logistical disruptions were reported in the EU due to         
Covid-19 border restrictions and truck drivers’ availability, but have since positively evolved.
Staple food demand is inelastic, and its increase compared to last year was on trend. However, the 
impact of foodservice closure versus household consumption under lockdown measures is yet to be 
seen. The short-term increase in food demand for staple commodities should not translate in a long-
lasting trend. Wheat flour demand by the baking industry could decrease temporarily.
Total compound feed demand is increasing on trend, especially with good pig and poultry market 
prospects. For dairy cows, the grazing season starts with an overall good                                       
pasture situation, which could reduce the compound feed demand.

10

EU cereal production and uses in 2020/2021
Winter crop area lower but overall arable sowings up

Wet conditions prevailed in many regions across the EU

EU cereals (left) and oilseeds area (right)
(% change compared to 5-year average) 

4

2

0

-2

-4

16

8

0

-8

-16

Cereals

Oilseeds

Winter wheat
Spring cereals
Spring rape

Winter barley
Maize
Soya beans

other winter crops
Winter rape
Sunflower

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development.

Source: 
Joint Research Center.

Winter sowings declined across the EU, especially triticale (-8%) and winter wheat (-3%). Winter barley and durum wheat are overall stable, though lower than their 5-year 
average. Plant development of winter crops has been delayed by the wet conditions prevailing in some regions. First estimates for spring and summer crop sowings are 
favourable, particularly for spring wheat (+17% compared to last year). No major issues in terms of availability of inputs linked to the Covid-19 crisis are expected (though some 
local problems for seeds or spare machinery parts could arise). Fertiliser prices may even decline reflecting low energy prices. 
With no major weather disruptions along the season, EU cereal production should reach 287.8 million t in 2020/2021. It is 2.2% lower than last year, but still 2.2% higher than 
the 5-year average. The wheat output, both winter and spring, is expected to slightly decline to 126.1 million t, due to the higher share of spring wheat plantings. 
Barley and maize production should also slightly decrease and reach 54.3 million t and 69.3 million t, respectively. Other crops outputs are expected to grow, especially oats 
(+6%), rye (+5%) and durum wheat (+2%). The domestic market remains on trend, as well as the continuous increase in food and feed use. 
The economic slowdown is likely to have minor effects on the overall EU staple food consumption, but could lead to a lower overall feed demand
(see dedicated section).

11

Oilseeds – Oilmeals – Vegetable oils

400

380

360

340

320

300

Global soya beans 
balance 
(million t)

Soya crop conditions in main producing
countries (Spring 2020)

Average
2016-2019

2020/21

Supply

Demand

Not the season

Exceptional

Favourable

To watch

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, 
based on International Grains Council.

Source: AMIS market monitor, April 2020.

EU oilseeds trade (million t)

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Total oilseeds
imports

Rapeseed

Soya beans

Sunflower seeds

July-Jan average 2014-2018

July 2019-Jan 2020

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 

Rebound of soya and rape global production in 2020/2021

Despite a lower global soya bean crop in 2019/2020, total use increased resulting in a tightening
of stocks. With a good crop expected in South America and the rebound in US acreage for
2020/2021, good soya beans supplies should be available on the global market.
On the trade side, some disruptions in port facilities in exporting countries (Argentina, Brazil) due
to Covid-19 were rapidly tackled. The strengthening of the US dollar vis-à-vis national currencies
favoured exports from these countries.
Prices remain relatively low for soya beans due to the good crop prospects in major exporting
countries. Record low stocks in China and the increase in the Argentinian export taxes have
contained the dip in the global market. The sharp decline in the oil price drove vegetable oils
prices down. Rapeseed prices fell in Q1 2020 and are still lower than a year ago.

Dynamic oilseed trade for the EU in 2019/2020

In 2019/2020, the EU market has been characterised by a low rapeseed production and a slight
decline in crushing volumes. Rapeseed production hit a 12-year low at 14.9 million t due to a
lower acreage (at 5 million ha, 17% less than the 5-year average).
This has been partly counter-balanced by still high imports of soya beans (14.2 million t) and
record high imports of rapeseed (6 million t). As a result, crushing volumes declined to
imports
45.1 million t, slightly less than last year’s record high (-2% year-on-year). Meal
remained relatively stable compared to previous years (+0.5% than the 5-year average).
Domestic use of meals is stable, but still higher than the 5-year average (+1.8%). The decline in
Distillers Dried Grains availability in the EU could also favour the use of protein meals for feed
purposes. The low oil price negatively affects the demand for vegetable oils in the EU, with some
processing plants closing (also due to confinement measures). Thus, palm oil
imports are
expected to fall to 6.5 million t (-8% than last year).

12

EU protein production in 2020/2021
EU 2020/2021 overall protein production to increase

EU protein crops production to increase in 2020/2021

EU protein meal production 
(million t) 

EU protein crop production
(million t)

 14

 12

 10

 8

 6

 4

 2

 0

 6

 5

 4

 3

 2

 1

 0

Rapeseed

  Soya beans

  Sunflower

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20e

2020/21f

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20e

2020/21f

Field peas

Broad beans

Lentils

Lupins

Chickpeas

other dry pulses

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development.

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development.

Oilseed plantings are expected to modestly recover after last season’s low. They should reach 10.5 million ha (+1.4% year-on-year). This is partially due to the rebound of
winter rapeseed area (5.1 million ha, +5% year-on-year), which is still 12% below the 5-year average. Winter rapeseed area in FR is down to 1.1 million ha while areas in DE
and PL are slightly above 0.9 million ha. Production of both winter and spring rapeseed is expected to reach 16.7 million t, assuming no major weather disruptions.
Soya and sunflower sowing estimates are close to the 5-year average. Their production should increase to 3 million t and 10.2 million t, respectively. Crushing volumes could
reach 45.4 million t, supported by the need for protein meals. Domestic use of vegetable oils is expected to decrease to 22.3 million t (but the impact of Covid-19 is yet to be
fully seen).
Sowing areas of field peas and broad beans are expected to increase after a 2-year decline. They should reach 0.8 million ha and 0.5 million ha, respectively.
The production of protein crops should increase to 4.5 million t, 4% more than last year. This should be driven by good market prospects for both 
food purposes (especially for peas, lentils and chickpeas) and feed usage (especially for beans).

13

World and EU+UK sugar prices (EUR/t)

Sugar

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

EU+UK white sugar price World white sugar prices World raw sugar prices

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

EU sugar beet area (million ha)

1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020f

BE

DE

FR

NL

PL

other

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat. 2020 forecast based on national 
estimates or trends (no official notification yet provided).

World sugar prices drop as a result of low oil prices

2019/2020 EU sugar production is estimated at 17.4 million t (1.5% below the previous year), 
mainly due to a 5% reduction in area. On the world market, the drop in oil prices and a weak 
Brazilian rea (which translates in higher profitability for sugar, denominated in US dollar) have 
resulted in a higher sugar production forecast in Brazil. With bad crops in India and Thailand, the 
global market is still expected to end in deficit, but less than anticipated in earlier global forecasts.
As a result of the higher sugar production forecast in Brazil, world sugar prices dropped in March 
2020. The pressure on EU+UK prices is expected to remain limited for the moment as EU exports 
for the current marketing year 2019/2020 have significantly decreased, and hence direct exposure 
to world markets is low. However, if world prices remain low, EU+UK prices should be affected.
EU+UK exports are now forecast at 1.1 million t, 32% less than in 2018/2019. Imports are forecast 
at 2 million t, slightly above the previous year. Overall, world trade is expected to slow down due to 
the Covid-19 crisis and related logistical challenges in the transport of stocks to ports. 

A further decrease in sugar beet area forecast for 2020/2021

EU human sugar consumption is expected to slightly drop in 2019/2020 as sugar consumed 
through foodservice (e.g. ice cream, beverages) is declining due to lockdowns, despite some 
increase in sugar sold through retail channels. 
Global demand for biofuels is falling due to low oil prices and fuel demand is declining due to 
lockdown measures. As a result, the EU 2020 biofuel production and consumption are expected to 
decrease. In response to the Covid-19 crisis, EU refineries have redirected a small part of their 
production capacity from fuel ethanol to alcohol for disinfectants. 
Sowing for the 2020/2021 campaign started. Early forecasts of EU sugar beet area indicate a 3% 
decrease, due to the bearish price environment of the last two years. A reduction in area is 
expected in BE, DE and FR, while area could remain stable in PL and                                                        
increase in NL.

14

Market developments in the EU

SPECIALISED 
CROPS

k
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•Note: % compared to previous season

15

OLIVE OIL2018/20192019/2020Production+3.4%-15%Exports+14%-8.3%Imports-19%-4.8%Consumption-5.8%+5.2%WINE2018/20192019/2020Production+37%-14%Exports-1.0%-14%Imports-5.3%-11%Consumption+2.5%-6.7%APPLESfreshprocessedfreshprocessedProduction+24%+69%-7.0%-36%Exports+52%+94%-26%-19%Imports-13%-31%-3.0%+6.8%Consumption+3.1%+17%+12%-33%2019/20202018/2019ORANGESfreshprocessedfreshprocessedProduction+4.3%+8.2%-2.1%-16%Exports+11%-1.4%-5.0%-5.0%Imports-3.1%-4.5%+0.0%+0.0%Consumption+2.5%-2.0%-1.5%-3.2%2019/20202018/2019 
Olive oil

EU olive oil prices per category (EUR/100kg)
and stocks under private storage aid (1 000 t)

500

400

300

200

100

0

g
k
0
0
1
R
U
E

/

/

0
1
0
1
0
2

/

4
0
1
1
0
2

/

0
1
1
1
0
2

/

4
0
2
1
0
2

/

0
1
2
1
0
2

/

4
0
3
1
0
2

/

0
1
3
1
0
2

/

4
0
4
1
0
2

/

0
1
4
1
0
2

/

4
0
5
1
0
2

/

0
1
5
1
0
2

/

4
0
6
1
0
2

/

0
1
6
1
0
2

/

4
0
7
1
0
2

/

0
1
7
1
0
2

/

4
0
8
1
0
2

/

0
1
8
1
0
2

/

4
0
9
1
0
2

/

0
1
9
1
0
2

PSA

Extra virgin

Virgin

Lampante

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Member States notifications.

EU olive oil exports, in volume (1 000 t) and value 
(million EUR)

e
m
u
o
V

l

 75

 60

 45

 30

 15

 0

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept

Value 2018/2019
Volume 2018/2019

Value 2019/2020
Volume 2019/2020

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

 200

 160

 120

 80

 40

 0

A
S
P

 300

 240

 180

 120

 60

 0

l

e
u
a
V

Ample availabilities continue weighing on prices in 2019/2020

In 2019/2020, EU olive oil production came close to 2 million t (-15% compared to last campaign). 
The production drop in ES (-35%) will not be fully compensated by other increases, despite the 
more than doubled production in IT, and recovery in EL (+43%) and PT (+30%).
Due to ample beginning stocks, overall availabilities remain high (12% above last 5-year average) 
and continue putting pressure on prices.
In order to support prices, private storage aid was activated from November 2019 to February 
2020 and more than 213 000 t of olive oil was stored under this mechanism, mainly of ES origin 
(92%) and lampante category (86%). These stocks will be placed back on the market by August. 
In February, prices started to stabilise. Most notably, the EU virgin olive oil price reversed the decline 
of the last five months, but still remains 40% below the last 5-year average for the same month 
(EUR 196/100kg). Prices of lampante and extra virgin olive oil saw their decline slow down.

Consumption recovery expected in main producing countries
Until February 2020, EU exports continued to grow in volume (+9% year-on-year), while falling in 
value ( 8%). US tariffs played an important role (US export value drop accounts for 94% of the 
overall drop). The unit value of ES and IT exports to the US dropped by 22% and 12% respectively.
US tariffs, transport issues linked to Covid-19, and overall economic conditions are expected to 
weaken global demand for EU olive oil, resulting in lower exports (-8%) in 2019/2020.
Following confinement measures in reaction to Covid-19, retail sales of olive oil increased, in 
particular in EU main producing countries. This, together with low prices, is expected to contribute to 
an overall consumption recovery in those Member States (+13% year-on-year), despite foodservice 
closure as retail and direct on farm sales represent around 85% of the total annual consumption. 
As the positioning of olive oil is different in these countries than in rest of the EU, and favourable
prices allowed for stocks at households’ level in the previous campaign, consumption                      
could drop in the rest of the EU ( 9% below last 5-year average). 
Nevertheless, this should allow for an annual stocks reduction of around 100 000 t.

16

 
Wine

EU wine production and domestic use (million hl)

200

150

100

50

0

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

Human consumption

Net trade

Other uses

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

2019/20f
Vinified production

EU wine exports by destination (million hl)

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20f

UK

US

Russia

China

Canada

Switzerland

Japan

other

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

Drop in consumption with diverse impact between wine types

EU wine consumption is strongly affected by the Covid-19 measures, even though the impact 
varies by type of wine.
Wine consumption in restaurants and bars has stopped (it usually represents around 30% of EU 
wine consumption), as well as in agro-tourism, due to confinement measures in place. However, 
wine sales through retail (70% of consumption) are increasing. These increases are, however, not 
expected to compensate for the loss of restaurant sales. 
Consumers are mainly buying average priced still wines at the detriment of sparkling wines, mostly 
consumed for celebrations, and the highly priced wines, mainly consumed in restaurants and bars.
Based on the above, EU wine consumption in the current marketing year 2019/2020 is expected to 
fall to 108 million hl, corresponding to 24 l per capita (-8% compared to the last 5-year average). 
Decline in exports and further increasing stocks

.  Despite the additional import tariffs imposed by the US as from October 2019, wine exports in the 
first half of the current marketing year 2019/2020 were 2% above exports over the same period 
last year. Although the wine sector (in particular FR) has taken actions during these months to keep 
its market share, this positive evolution is not expected to continue.
In addition, EU wine exports are impacted by Covid-19 measures in main exporting destinations, e.g. 
China. Overall, exports are expected to fall by 14% in 2019/2020, both compared to last year and 
to the last 5-year average.
EU wine imports are affected by Covid-19 to a lower extent than exports as they are mainly sold in 
retail, even if they are also impacted by logistical problems or measures taken by the exporting 
countries. However, as imports during the first half of 2019/2020 were 7% below last year’s 
imports, a decrease of 11% compared to 2018/2019 is expected.
These developments should lead, despite a despite a below average 
2019/2020 harvest, to a further slight increase of stocks which were                                               
already at a record level at the end of the previous marketing year.

17

Apples
Increase in EU demand for fresh apples

Strong decline in EU exports of fresh apples 

EU apple production (1 000 t) and per capita consumption (kg/cap)

EU fresh apple exports by destination (1 000 t)

n
o
i
t
c
u
d
o
r
P

15 000

12 500

10 000

7 500

5 000

2 500

 0

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20f

EU production (fresh)
per capita (fresh/kg)

EU production (processed)
per capita (processed/kg)

Losses and feed use

18

15

12

9

6

3

0

n
o
i
t
p
m
u
s
n
o
c

a
t
i
p
a
c

r
e
P

2 000

1 600

1 200

 800

 400

 0

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20f

Egypt

Belarus

UK

Kazakhstan

Saudi Arabia

India

other

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

While the estimated EU production of apples in the current marketing year 
2019/2020 is 10% below its past 5-year average (10.8 million t), EU demand for 
fresh apples is expected to be above average (+9%), thanks to higher retail sales 
driven by increased domestic consumption. The expected decrease in imports of 
perishable tropical fruits due to the Covid-19 crisis air cargo transport limitations 
are likely to drive rising demand for EU fruit, including apples.
Apparent EU consumption for processed products is expected to decline, following 
last year’s increase of stocks and lower demand due to Covid-19 measures (e.g. 
apple compote given to schoolchildren and cider served in foodservice). 

During the first 6 months of 2019/2020, EU exports of fresh apples were 5% 
above the same period in previous year’s record harvest year. However, exports 
are expected to fall by the end of the marketing year (-34% compared to the 
last 5-year average) due to increased EU demand, lower production, and the 
difficulties to reach some export markets (e.g. India) due to the Covid-19 crisis.
EU exports of processed apples are expected to increase compared to the last 
5-year average (+14%) driven by high stocks but will be 
lower (-19%) than last year’s record.

18

 
 
Oranges

EU oranges production (1 000 t fresh equivalent)
and area (1 000 ha)

n
o
i
t
c
u
d
o
r
P

7 000

6 000

5 000

4 000

3 000

2 000

1 000

 0

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20e

Production (fresh)

Production (processed)

Area

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

EU oranges trade (1 000 t fresh equivalent)

4 000

2 000

 0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20f

Imports (processed)

Exports (processed)

Imports (fresh)

Exports (fresh)

High prices with strong demand for oranges and orange juice

a
e
r
A

300

280

260

240

220

200

180

160

The Covid-19 crisis will have a limited impact on the 2019/2020 EU supply, as the harvest of the 
latest varieties of oranges is ending. Production of oranges for the current marketing year is now 
expected to reach 6.2 million t (5% below the previous year due to lower yields).
Last weeks witnessed an increasing demand globally but also in the EU, as oranges are 
perceived as a healthy food. This concerns both fresh oranges and orange juice. The substantial 
hike in retail sales of fresh oranges is expected to be larger than the drop of consumption in 
foodservice.
The increased demand has led to price rises both globally and in the EU.

Slight decrease in exports, stable imports
EU exports of fresh oranges declined significantly in March 2020 (-13% year-on-year*), mainly 
due to lower exports to China. Exports in October-March remain however close to previous year’s 
level, so export volumes could recover soon. Lower EU supply, combined with strong domestic 
demand and possible logistic disruptions, could nevertheless lead to a decline in exports of both 
fresh and processed oranges, by around 5%. 
2019/2020 EU imports of fresh oranges until end March are about 20% lower than in the 
previous year. Boosted by strong demand, the gap to the previous year has reduced in recent 
months. Moreover, South Africa, the main origin for EU imported fresh oranges, forecasts a very 
good harvest in the coming weeks. Notwithstanding possible logistical disruptions for imports of 
fresh oranges from South Africa and of orange juice and juice concentrates from Brazil, the 
2019/2020 forecast for both fresh and processed oranges is for the time being set to be stable.

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

*based on TAXUD surveillance

19

MILK AND 
DAIRY 
PRODUCTS

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©

Market developments in the EU

Increased milk solids availability sustained processing capacities in 2019

Note: % compared to previous year

Change in milk protein and fat availability
relative to change in milk collection 
2019/2018

9%

7%

5%

3%

1%

-1%

IE

BE

ES

PL DK DE

FR

IT

NL

EU

Protein availability

Fat availability

Deliveries

In 2019, EU milk collection grew by 0.4% (lowest growth 
rate since 2012). The drop in FR (-0.2%) and DE (-0.1%) 
was compensated by a hike in IE (+5%) and PL (+2%).
The milk yield grew by 1.8% while the dairy herd shrank 
by 1.2%. The herd reduction was mainly due to DE, FR, PL 
and IT (decline of 2-3%), while IE expanded by close to 
4%. In NL, it expanded by 2%, reverting the trend of the 
last two years following obligations to reduce phosphate 
emissions.
Despite a modest milk collection growth, increased milk 
fat and protein availability provided enough constituents 
to sustain processing capacities, even in Member States 
where milk deliveries declined. 
EU milk fat availability grew by 1.6% and milk protein by 
1.2%. 

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development based on Eurostat.

20

DAIRY PRODUCTS20192020Production+0.4%+0.4%Exports+6.8%-6.3%Imports+3.8%-8.0%Consumption+0.0%-0.3%MILK 20192020Milk collection+0.4%+0.4%Dairy herd-1.2%-0.7% 
Milk and dairy prices
Chinese demand drop for milk powders weakened prices

EU milk price equivalent expected to decline

EU weekly dairy prices (EUR/t)

EU and Oceania monthly milk price (EUR ct/kg)

7 000

6 000

5 000

4 000

3 000

2 000

1 000

 0

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

butter

SMP

WMP

Cheese

EU raw milk

EU price eq.

Oceania price eq.

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat and Member States notifications.

Note: The milk price equivalent is based on butter and SMP prices.
Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

The spread of Covid-19 in China weakened milk powders’ prices. Demand 
dropped following foodservice closure and the postponement of Chinese New 
Year celebrations.
Although there are already signals of a Chinese demand recovery, the 
pressure on dairy prices is expected to remain as stocks of milk powders 
remain high. In 2019, China increased both SMP (+23%) and WMP (+29%) 
imports significantly. Due to lockdown restrictions, milk collected in China was 
processed into WMP more than usual, leading to an increase in overall 
product availability.

Since February, the EU SMP price dropped by 17% to EUR 2 180/t. The EU 
WMP price declined at a lower pace to EUR 2 850/t (-6% since the beginning 
of 2020), as did the EU butter price to EUR 3 420/t (-7%). Meanwhile, the EU 
cheese price remained relatively stable (EUR 3 080/t).
As a result of declining SMP and butter prices, the EU milk price equivalent is 
expected to decline in the coming months. The seasonal rise in milk collection 
and confinement restrictions due to Covid-19 could also 
weigh on milk prices over a longer period. 

21

Milk and Dairy products

EU milk yield (kg/cow) and number of dairy cows (million 
heads)

8 000

6 000

4 000

2 000

 0

s
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f
o

r
e
b
m
u
N

23

22

21

20

19

l

d
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Y

i

Milk yield

Number of dairy cows

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

SMP balance sheet (1 000 t)

WMP balance sheet (1 000 t)

1 600
1 400
1 200
1 000
 800
 600
 400
 200
 0

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

Exports

Domestic use

Production

Stocks

Exports

Domestic use

Production

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based Eurostat.

EU milk production expected to grow modestly in 2020

The spring flush of EU milk collection (Q2) coincides with the outbreak of Covid-19. Restrictive 
measures in Member States could challenge milk collection logistics as well as feed deliveries. In 
some cases, dairies are encouraging milk producers to reduce milk deliveries.
Health-related reasons could also affect labour force availability, particularly in processing. This, 
together with availability of milk supply in spring and restricted demand, could affect the dairy 
product mix, favouring less labour-intensive products.
Under these conditions and assuming normal weather conditions, EU milk production growth could 
be expected around 0.4% in 2020, driven by a modest yield increase (+1.1%), compensating a 
further reduction of the dairy herd (-0.7%). 
To address potential compound feed shortages, domestically produced feed could be favoured over 
purchased feed concentrates, contributing to the slowdown in annual yield growth.
More milk channelled to SMP production in 2020

A possible decline of foodservice demand for dairy products could direct more milk into the 
processing of storable and less labour-intensive dairy products, notably SMP. Its production could 
grow by 2.5% in 2020. With public stocks emptied in 2019, availability in 2020 would decrease by 
10%. Due to the price difference between stocked and fresh SMP, less SMP is expected to be used 
in processing in 2020, resulting in a reduced domestic use (-8%), similar to levels prior to 2018. 
Reduced availability and restrictive trade measures due to Covid-19 could bring SMP exports close 
to 2017 levels. They could decline by 17% compared to the record high exports of 2019 (mainly to 
China, Algeria and Southeast Asia). Since not all fresh SMP would be used, private stocks could 
increase to 125 000 t in 2020.
In 2020, weakened world demand for WMP due to Covid-19 and an oil price drop could further 
reduce EU exports, in particular to the Middle East. They are expected to fall by 7%. A continuous 
increase in domestic use (+2%) is not expected  to compensate for this 
loss, therefore EU WMP production is expected to fall by 2%. 

22

 
Dairy products

EU butter exports by selected destination
2018 and 2019 (1 000 t)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

UK

US

Saudi
Arabia

UAE

China

Turkey

Japan

other

Note: Including butter oil and not accounting for outward processing.
Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

2018

2019

Domestic use of selected dairy products by channels
(2019e)

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Drinking milk

Cream

Cheese

Butter

Retail

Foodservice

Industrial use and other

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat and Euromonitor International, 
Packaged Food, 2019.

Domestic use of butter to remain stable 

More butter is expected to be produced (+1.2%) as domestic demand remains strong (both in 
retail and food industry). Despite the competitive EU price, US stocks built up in 2019 and 
weakened demand in other markets, could contribute to a decline of EU exports (-10%) in 2020. 
While retail sales of butter are likely to increase, domestic use could remain stable as butter use 
in processed products would not return to previous levels.
As a result, the increased production is not likely to be fully absorbed, and stocks could increase 
(+10 000 t). 

Sustained demand for cheese and fresh dairy products

A majority of traditional dairy products (cheese, drinking milk, cream and yogurts) is either sold 
via retail or processed by the industry. Increased home consumption due to confinement 
measures has led to increased household stocks, mainly of UHT milk and cheese.
In 2020, EU cheese consumption could grow slightly (+0.3%), supported by increasing retail 
sales for different categories, as well as for ready meals with a cheese component. Exports 
could also continue increasing (+1.5%), mainly thanks to demand in Asian markets. This 
increasing demand is expected to result in an overall cheese production increase (+0.6%), 
supported by a stable price environment.
However, as home dairy consumption differs in composition to foodservice, some categories of 
cheese could be impacted negatively by the drop in demand (e.g. high-value cheeses).
Domestic stockpiling of UHT milk, and an expected demand increase for yogurts, due to their 
functional value in nutrition, could incentivise the slowdown of the declining trend in FDP 
production in 2020 (-0.4% compared to -0.9% in 2019). In particular, drinking milk is expected 
to halve the decline of last year (-1%), whereas the negative trend in yogurt production could 
be reverted (+0.5%). World demand for EU FDP could remain at the historic 
level of last year, assuming the recovery of Chinese foodservice 
for which there are already some signals.

23

Market developments in the EU

MEAT 
PRODUCTS

•Note: % compared to previous year
•Net production and meat trade

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BEEF20192020Production-0.9%-0.6%Exports-3.0%+1.0%Imports+3.9%+0.0%Consumption-0.5%-0.7%POULTRY20192020Production+1.6%+1.2%Exports+6.7%+1.0%Imports+1.8%-0.5%Consumption+0.6%+1.1%PIGMEAT20192020Production-0.6%+0.7%Exports+17%+12%Consumption-3.7%-1.8%SHEEP & GOAT20192020Production+5.5%+0.0%Exports+12%+2.0%Imports-6.1%-1.0%Consumption+2.2%-0.4%Beef and veal

Change in number of cows, main producing 
EU Member States (1 000 heads)

80

40

0

-40

-80

-120

-160

FR

IT

ES

DE
2018/2017 Suckler cows
Dairy cows

IE

BE

NL

PL
2019/2018 Suckler cows
Dairy cows

AT

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil – beef exports
(million t product weight, share to China and EU)

47%

other

US

Chile

Hong Kong

EU

13%

China

29%

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

0
1
0
2

1
1
0
2

2
1
0
2

3
1
0
2

4
1
0
2

5
1
0
2

6
1
0
2

7
1
0
2

8
1
0
2

9
1
0
2

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on IHS Markit/GTA.

% to China

% to EU

EU beef production down in 2020

EU beef production declined in 2019 (-0.9%), in a context of lower prices and reflecting prior herd 
reductions in key producing countries (FR, IT, NL), while the contraction in PL stemmed from 
reduced exports. By contrast, DE increased its output, through additional culling of heifers not 
needed for replacement, while IE’s slaughterings rose in anticipation of Brexit.
In 2019, the total EU cow herd contracted further by 0.8%, with different developments for dairy 
and suckler cow herds. Higher milk yields contributed to the downsizing of dairy herds in key 
producing countries (FR, DE, IT, PL), while the expansion in ES, PL and IT (thanks to export 
opportunities) halted the reduction of the EU suckler cow herd. 
EU beef production should decline further in 2020 in key producing countries, by 0.6% in the EU, 
as herds are smaller and the EU reference price is declining. Meanwhile, ES and IE should benefit 
from trade opportunities and increase their meat output. Covid-19 will affect markets for specific 
products, such as high-value cuts due to the closure of foodservice and butchery departments in 
supermarkets.

Lower meat availability and stable imports in 2020

EU imports increased in 2019, due to more supply from Argentina. In 2020, imports should remain 
stable, as other EU suppliers (of high-quality meat) are diverting their exports to Asia (China, Japan 
and South Korea). 
Strikingly, southern American countries now ship nearly half of their exports to China, while the EU 
share dropped to 13%. Covid-19 may undermine their exports to the EU further, as foodservice 
demand for high-value cuts breaks and pulls EU prices down. Meanwhile, production and export 
disruptions in South America are not excluded. 
Lower demand and lower meat availability will result in a
further reduction in EU apparent consumption (to 10.6 kg 
per capita). 

Beef and veal
Slight export recovery in 2020 

EU exports of bovine animals (1 000 t)

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

7
1
0
2

8
1
0
2

9
1
0
2

0
2
0
2

f

UK

other

Russia

Libya

Israel

Turkey

Lebanon

Algeria

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

Pressure on Prices

EU imports of beef (1 000 t)

EU exports of beef (1 000 t)
UK

other

Switzerland

Hong Kong

Philippines

Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Israel

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

7
1
0
2

8
1
0
2

9
1
0
2

0
2
0
2

f

7
1
0
2

8
1
0
2

9
1
0
2

0
2
0
2

f

UK

other

Namibia

Australia

US

Uruguay

Argentina

Brazil

EU exports of live animals declined in 2019, driven by lower demand from Turkey. The EU, led by FR, 
diverted significant volumes to Algeria, which favours live imports to imports of meat. A further decrease 
is expected in 2020, with lower demand from Turkey, price competition from Brazil and Uruguay, and 
suppressed demand from Algeria and Libya (impact of low oil prices). 
EU beef exports declined by 3% in 2019, solely because exports to the UK fell by 10%. In 2020, exports 
could slightly recover depending mainly on expanding opportunities in Asia (Japan, Hong Kong, China and 
the Philippines). 
Covid-19 has not yet affected EU exports, including live animals. However, possible transport disruptions 
(i.e. a shortage of truck drivers) are a risk factor. 

Covid-19 affects the beef meat market 
through prices. So far, specific products for 
foodservice (e.g. burgers for fast food and 
high-value cuts for restaurants) are partly 
redirected to retail, but at lower prices. 
Beef prices, already lower at the beginning 
of 2020, are under increased pressure this 
year, including for cows

Poultry

Poultry meat imports by destination                                

(1 000 t carcass weight)

1 000

 800

 600

 400

 200

 0

EU poultry production to continue rising in 2020

EU poultry meat production continued its growing trend in 2019 thanks to increasing demand, 
albeit at a moderate pace (+1.6%). In 2020, growth should continue (+1.2%) as consumers 
replace more expensive meats with poultry. However, the closing of foodservice should impact 
varieties more difficult to sell in retail (ducks, guinea fowls, pigeons and quails).
In 2019, broiler prices stayed close to the 5-year average. Since the beginning of 2020 prices 
have been above last year’s level due to tight supply, and were pushed further up by Covid-19 
related stockpiling mid-March. However, they fell quickly after that below the 5-year average 
mainly due to a steep drop of PL prices.
Per capita consumption is expected to continue on its rising trend in 2020, up to 23.6 kg (+0.2 kg). 

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020f

UK

Brazil

Thailand

Ukraine

China

Chile

other

EU poultry imports could be affected by foodservice closures

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

Poultry meat exports by destination                                           

(1 000 t carcass weight)

3 000

2 500

2 000

1 500

1 000

 500

 0

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020f

UK
Saudi Arabia

Philippines
Benin

Ghana
Hong Kong

South Africa
other

Ukraine

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

EU poultry meat imports grew moderately by 1.8% in 2019 (+2.9% to UK, +1.3% to other 
countries). Imports from the UK are mostly low value cuts and legs. By contrast, imports from 
other countries are mostly breasts and processed products of higher value largely addressed to 
foodservice, thus likely affected by Covid-19. As a result, imports will probably fall slightly in 
2020.
In 2019, EU poultry meat exports grew by 6.7% thanks to strong world demand (+2.3% to UK, 
+9% to other countries). Shipments increased to most of the main destinations, particularly to 
South Africa (+62%), the Philippines (+40%), Vietnam (+34%) and China (quadrupled). In 2020, 
exports should keep growing while demand remains high, but at a moderate pace as bird flu 
outbreaks in a few of the main EU producers (e.g. PL) have resulted into country bans by some 
trade partners, including the four above. This will put pressure on EU exports, and will probably 
result in a switch of trade flows, except probably to China where PL is the only EU country 
exporting significant volumes at the moment.

27

Pigmeat

Change in number of breeding sows, main producing EU 
Member States (1 000 heads)

75

25

-25

-75

-125

-175

DE

FR

HU

BE

PT

IT

DK

AT

RO

PL

ES

NL

2017/2016

2018/2017

2019/2018

Small EU production growth expected in 2020, despite high prices
The EU breeding herd contracted by 3% in 2018 due to low prices, African Swine Fever (ASF) risk 
and/or environmental restrictions. High prices from April 2019 have contained the trend and 
stabilised the size of the EU herd in 2019 (+0.4 % year-on-year), thanks to expansion in ES (+3%) 
and NL (+8%), and despite reductions in DE (-3%), FR (-3%) and HU (-11%).
In 2020, EU pigmeat production should grow slightly as continuing export demand from Asia, 
particularly China, keeps prices high and favours higher slaughter weights. Growth will be driven 
by ES that is taking advantage of the opportunity in China. ES pork exports to China doubled in 
2019, and now represent 28% of total EU exports to China. In 2020, ES will become the first EU 
producer in number of slaughtered animals, although not in volume due to a lighter slaughter 
weight than DE. Covid-19 should not significantly affect the pigmeat market except for some 
specific products for foodservice (e.g. suckling pigs for roasting in ES, PT).

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

EU prices should remain high in 2020, thanks to strong world demand

EU pigmeat prices, class E (EUR/100kg)

210

200

190

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

JAN

FEB MAR
2017

APR MAY

JUN

2018

2019

AUG

JUL
2020

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development.

OCT

SEP
average 2015-2019

NOV

The surge of Chinese imports in 2019 drove EU pigmeat prices to close to EUR 200/100kg in 
December (+45% year-on-year). Since then prices have fluctuated above EUR 180/100kg. 
Carcass prices reacted slightly to Covid-19 but should continue at high levels while Chinese 
demand continues, despite the reduction in foodservice demand. The main risk remains the 
spread of ASF in the EU.
Piglet prices also surged in 2019, only declining in March 2020 following the carcass price, after 
reaching EUR 75/head (+59% year-on-year). 
ASF is still contained in the EU, but continues to spread slowly. In February 2020, EL confirmed 
its first outbreak. Currently ten Member States are affected by the disease: EL, BG, EE, HU, 
IT (Sardinia), LV, LT, PL, RO and SK. 
Apparent consumption per capita is expected to fall to 32.5 kg in 2020                                      
(0.7 kg less than the previous year) as high prices favour other meats,                                     
particularly poultry.

28

DEC

Pigmeat
Further growth of EU pigmeat exports expected in 2020

EU pigmeat exports by destination (1 000 t carcass weight)

5 000

4 500

4 000

3 500

3 000

2 500

2 000

1 500

1 000

 500

 0

Surge of Chinese pigmeat demand to continue in 2020

Chinese pork imports from main partners (1 000 t product weight)

1 600

1 400

1 200

1 000

 800

 600

 400

 200

 0

2015
UK
Philippines

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

China
US

Hong Kong
Australia

Japan
Ukraine

South Korea
other

Pigmeat

Offal

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on IHS Markit/GTA (export declarations) and Eurostat for EU figures.

EU pigmeat exports grew by 17% in 2019 (-5% to UK, +25% to other countries), 
driven by Chinese demand, where the share of EU pigmeat exports doubled to 
36%. Meanwhile, exports to other main trade partners fell significantly: South 
Korea ( 22%), the Philippines (-24%), the US (-24%) and Ukraine (-18%); while 
small increases were registered to Japan, Australia and Hong Kong. In 2019, the 
UK is the main export destination of EU pigmeat after China (22% share).
In 2020, Chinese demand should persist and total EU exports are expected to 
grow significantly (+12%).
In 2019, EU offal exports grew as well, but less significantly (+7%).

China continues to struggle to recover from ASF that has decimated its pig herd, 
and recovery will probably be delayed by Covid-19 related disruptions. In 2020, 
Chinese production should fall further (experts estimate a 15-25% drop year-on-
year), maintaining a huge gap that cannot be covered by available world supply.
The EU has clearly benefited the most from Chinese demand, but the US has 
tripled its exports despite the tariffs in place. Brazil continues to increase its 
share, while Canada could not due to the suspension of                                      
its access for most of the 2nd half of 2019.

29

Sheep and goat meat

Change in number of sheep and goats, main producing 
EU Member States (1 000 heads)

200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500

EL

ES

IE
RO
2018/2017 Ewes put to the ram
Goats mated

FR

DE

PT

AT
NL
IT
2019/2018 Ewes put to the ram
 Goats mated

BG

Sheep and goat meat production to remain stable in 2020

The EU sheep and goat flocks contracted in 2019 (-1.3%), driven by reductions in key producing 
countries (ES, EL). In addition, the previous substantial increase in RO and FR eased. 
EU sheep and goat meat production should remain stable in 2020, after strong growth in 2019 
(+6%), due to smaller flocks and a slowdown in production growth in RO. Improved export 
prospects and if prices remain high should prevent a decrease in EU production. 
Covid-19 will impact the sheep and goat meat markets. Surplus from foodservice in some 
countries (ES, EL) will not be absorbed by retail. Also, seasonal demand for Easter and Ramadan 
will not materialise, and animals ready for slaughter may be frozen and directed to retail and 
foodservice in the second half of the year. Covid-19 is due to affect the market through 
downward pressure on prices.

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

Meat exports slightly up, imports slightly down in 2020

EU sheepmeat trade, by main partner (1 000 t)

Exports of live animals

Exports of meat

Imports of meat

other
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Jordan, Israel, Lebanon
Libya

240

200

160

120

80

40

0

8
1
0
2

9
1
0
2

f
0
2
0
2

8
1
0
2

9
1
0
2

f
0
2
0
2

8
1
0
2

9
1
0
2

f
0
2
0
2

Note: Middle East includes Jordan, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Iran, Bahrain, S. Arabia, Israel, Turkey.
Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat.

EU live exports were firmly up in 2019, supported by the demand from emerging destinations 
(Saudi Arabia and Iran). In 2020, live exports should decline notably, as the negative tendency 
continues in Libya, Jordan and Israel. Covid-19 may limit the transport and exports of live 
animals, in particular to Iran. 
EU sheepmeat exports rose in 2019 (+12%). In 2020, ES and IE shall benefit from continued 
export to the Middle East and Hong Kong, and perhaps to the UK. 
EU sheepmeat imports declined in 2019 (-6.1%), as New Zealand (that accounts for 40%) 
diverted its exports to Asia. Unless the UK maintains similar exports to the EU as last year, EU 
imports should decline in 2020.

STATISTICAL ANNEX

31

Statistical Annex

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat

32

ARABLE CROPSTable 1.1  EU-27 cereal, oilseed and protein crop area (1 000 ha)201520162017201820192020f19/182019 vs20/192020 vs5-yr. av.*5-yr. av.*Common wheat22 49322 42721 59421 27121 96721 5443.3-0.9-1.9-2.1Durum2 4362 7732 5452 4812 1882 188-11.8-12.00.0-12.0Rye1 9421 8971 9241 9092 1832 28514.413.44.718.7Barley11 11311 18010 86311 14211 11211 065-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.5Oats2 3942 4762 5212 5682 3682 510-7.8-4.46.01.9Maize9 2528 5588 2678 2768 8978 5927.52.3-3.40.2Triticale3 1082 9022 7492 6032 7402 5355.3-4.3-7.5-9.4Sorghum13912313515119714230.739.0-27.70.5Others1 2971 3201 4151 5391 4551 388-5.57.2-4.6-0.6Cereals54 17453 65552 01151 94053 10752 2492.2-0.3-1.6-1.3Rapeseed5 8155 9566 1866 3185 0235 291-20.5-17.15.3-11.6Sunflower4 1974 1384 3124 0264 3334 1307.63.2-4.7-2.0Soya beans8818329629559301 008-2.74.58.49.3Linseed485554464248-9.0-15.615.5-2.5Oilseeds10 94110 98011 51411 34410 32710 477-9.0-6.91.4-5.5Field peas700862986829787838-5.1-1.36.51.4Broad beans454478496469430468-8.3-7.98.80.2Lupins25818016515018517723.312.2-4.7-0.2Protein crops1 4121 5201 6471 4491 4021 482-3.2-4.05.71.5Sugar beet1 3301 4131 6451 6211 5431 490-4.91.7-3.4-2.3Total67 85867 56866 81766 35466 37965 6980.0-1.5-1.0-1.8* The 5-year average is an olympic average in all tables.% variationEU-27Table 1.2  EU-27 cereal, oilseed and protein crop yields (t/ha)201520162017201820192020f19/182019 vs20/192020 vs5-yr. av.*5-yr. av.*Common wheat6.05.45.95.46.05.910.44.1-1.81.8Durum3.43.53.53.53.53.5-2.1-0.12.11.8Rye4.03.93.83.23.93.919.5-0.60.20.7Barley4.94.84.84.55.05.011.65.2-1.12.9Oats2.83.02.92.72.92.97.90.90.20.9Maize6.47.47.98.47.98.1-5.71.52.55.0Triticale4.14.14.23.84.14.18.5-1.31.01.0Sorghum5.25.45.35.65.25.5-6.0-3.85.13.2Others2.72.72.92.52.72.77.4-3.2-0.4-0.5Cereals5.35.25.55.25.65.67.04.5-0.63.9Rapeseed3.33.13.22.83.03.24.4-7.16.02.2Sunflower1.92.12.42.52.32.5-5.94.46.28.3Soya beans2.73.02.83.02.92.9-1.80.11.32.2Linseed1.61.51.61.51.61.77.04.34.97.1Oilseeds2.72.72.92.72.72.9-1.1-2.66.25.6Field peas2.72.52.62.32.62.613.21.5-0.40.4Broad beans2.72.72.82.12.52.616.0-9.13.9-1.8Lupins1.51.71.61.21.41.413.4-11.10.1-6.0Protein crops2.52.42.62.12.42.412.6-3.31.6-0.2Sugar beet71.975.581.669.072.4-4.8-4.6--% variationEU-27Statistical Annex

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat

33

Table 1.3  EU-27 cereal, oilseed and protein crop gross production (1 000 t)2015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20e2020/21f19/20 vs19/20vs20/21vs20/21vs18/195-yr. av.*19/205-yr. av.*Common wheat136 072120 580128 306115 751131 943127 12514.03.6-3.70.1Durum8 3899 6748 8108 7677 5717 727-13.6-12.52.1-10.7Rye7 7397 3577 3096 1748 4408 85436.713.04.918.6Barley54 53653 31951 64249 97355 59854 77611.35.0-1.53.0Oats6 7837 3227 3226 9046 8697 294-0.5-2.76.23.7Maize59 26163 06565 04969 33670 28269 6011.46.8-1.05.8Triticale12 74211 78611 6469 79011 17910 44814.2-7.3-6.5-9.4Sorghum7206697198391 03078322.935.8-24.03.2Others3 4533 5844 1583 8473 9053 7101.52.7-5.0-1.8Cereals289 694277 356284 960271 380296 816290 3179.44.5-2.22.2Rapeseed19 27218 32719 85318 00314 93816 688-17.0-22.011.7-10.0Sunflower7 8828 73910 4039 97310 10010 2191.38.31.26.4Soya beans2 3382 4802 6722 8332 7062 972-4.58.49.813.5Linseed808184676679-2.7-13.721.14.5Oilseeds29 57229 62633 01230 87527 81029 959-9.9-10.77.7-0.2Field peas1 8972 1292 6061 8952 0352 1577.43.16.06.8Broad beans1 2221 2711 3839971 0591 1986.3-8.913.11.2Lupins38329726418626024839.81.2-4.6-9.4Protein crops3 5013 6974 2523 0783 3553 6039.0-2.17.42.4Sugar beet95 654106 718134 202111 933111 665--0.2-1.6--EU-27% variationTable 1.4  EU-27 overall cereal balance sheet (million t)EU-27% variation2015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20e2020/21f19/20 vs19/20vs20/21vs20/21vs18/195-yr. av.*19/205-yr. av.*Beginning stocks37.335.030.138.938.446.2-1.212.620.325.4Gross production 289.7277.4285.0271.4296.8290.39.44.5-2.22.2Usable production 287.1274.9282.4269.0294.2287.89.44.5-2.22.2Imports23.420.525.030.227.724.4-8.320.2-11.9-4.0Total availabilities347.9330.4337.6338.1360.3358.46.65.6-0.55.0Total domestic uses259.3258.7260.9261.6262.3262.00.21.0-0.10.5 - Human58.558.658.958.858.858.90.00.30.10.2 - Seed9.08.99.39.19.19.0-0.40.7-1.0-0.8 - Industrial30.530.631.031.231.231.20.21.60.00.9    o.w. bioethanol11.611.411.912.212.512.52.57.60.05.2 - Animal feed161.4160.5161.6162.5163.2163.00.41.2-0.10.7Losses (excl on-farm)2.22.22.22.21.81.7-20.1-20.1-2.2-21.9Exports51.439.435.635.950.041.239.518.6-17.7-1.4Total uses312.9300.3298.7299.7314.1304.94.83.3-2.90.2End stocks35.030.138.938.446.253.520.325.415.642.8 - Market35.030.138.938.446.253.520.325.415.642.8 - Intervention0.00.00.00.00.00.0----Self-sufficiency rate %110.7106.3108.3102.8112.2109.89.13.5-2.11.3Note: the cereal marketing year is July-June.Statistical Annex

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat

34

Table 1.5  EU-27 cereal balance sheet 2020/2021 (forecast) (million t)CommonWheatBarleyDurumMaizeRyeSorghumOatsTriticaleOthersTOTALBeginning stocks (01.07.2019)8.85.32.324.20.91.70.42.50.146.2Gross production127.10.0-12.60.00.00.00.0124.40.0239.0Usable production 126.154.37.669.38.70.77.210.23.5287.8Import4.11.41.916.60.00.20.10.00.124.4Total availabilities139.060.911.8110.19.62.77.612.73.8358.4Total domestic use101.243.89.081.47.10.66.48.73.8262.0   - Human41.50.48.14.73.00.21.00.10.058.9   - Seed4.62.10.40.40.30.00.40.50.39.0   - Industrial10.37.20.111.61.30.00.10.40.231.2          o.w. bioethanol4.30.40.06.70.70.00.00.30.012.6   - Animal feed44.834.10.464.72.50.55.07.73.3163.0Losses (excl on-farm)0.80.30.00.40.10.00.00.10.01.7Export26.69.41.23.50.20.00.20.00.041.2Total use127.953.210.284.97.20.66.68.73.8303.2End stocks (30.06.2019)10.47.41.624.72.32.11.04.00.053.4    - Market10.47.41.624.72.32.11.04.00.053.4    - Intervention0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Change in stocks1.62.2-0.80.61.40.30.61.5-0.17.2Change in public stocks0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Self-sufficiency rate %124.6124.085.285.1122.6117.3112.0117.794.0109.8Note: the cereal marketing year is July-June.Table 1.6  EU-27 cereal balance sheet 2019/2020 (million t)CommonWheatBarleyDurumMaizeRyeSorghumOatsTriticaleOthersTOTALBeginning stocks (01.07.2018)6.52.63.024.20.21.40.20.30.138.4Gross production131.955.67.670.38.41.06.911.23.9296.8Usable production 130.955.17.570.08.31.06.811.03.7294.2Import3.52.42.119.40.00.10.10.00.127.7Total availabilities140.960.212.6113.68.42.47.011.33.9360.3Total domestic use99.543.89.083.37.20.66.48.73.8262.3   - Human41.50.48.14.73.00.21.00.10.058.8   - Seed4.62.10.40.40.40.00.40.50.39.1   - Industrial10.37.20.111.61.30.00.10.40.231.2          o.w. bioethanol4.30.40.06.70.70.00.00.30.012.6   - Animal feed43.134.10.466.62.50.55.07.73.3163.2Losses (excl on-farm)0.80.30.00.40.00.00.00.10.01.8Export31.810.81.25.70.30.00.20.00.050.0Total use132.154.910.289.47.50.76.78.83.8314.1End stocks (30.06.2018)8.85.32.324.20.91.70.42.50.146.2    - Market8.85.32.324.20.91.70.42.50.146.2    - Intervention0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Change in stocks2.42.6-0.60.00.70.40.22.20.07.8Change in public stocks0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Self-sufficiency rate %131.6125.983.684.0114.7154.5105.5126.098.9112.2Note: the cereal marketing year is July-June.Statistical Annex

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat

35

Table 1.7  EU-27 cereal balance sheet 2018/2019 (million t)CommonWheatBarleyDurumMaizeRyeSorghumOatsTriticaleOthersTOTALBeginning stocks (01.07.2017)12.21.53.219.20.20.70.30.61.038.9Gross production115.850.08.869.36.20.86.99.83.8271.4Usable production 114.849.58.769.06.00.86.89.63.7269.0Import4.00.91.422.60.30.80.00.00.130.2Total availabilities131.052.013.4110.86.62.27.110.24.7338.1Total domestic use101.341.19.381.86.10.86.89.84.6261.6   - Human41.50.48.04.73.00.21.00.10.058.8   - Seed4.62.10.40.40.40.00.40.50.39.1   - Industrial10.37.30.111.51.30.00.10.40.131.2          o.w. bioethanol4.30.40.06.40.70.00.00.30.012.3   - Animal feed44.831.30.865.21.40.65.38.84.2162.5Losses (excl on-farm)0.90.40.00.60.10.00.10.10.02.2Export22.47.91.04.20.20.00.10.00.035.9Total use124.549.410.486.66.40.97.09.94.7299.7End stocks (30.06.2017)6.52.63.024.20.21.40.20.30.138.4    - Market6.52.63.024.20.21.40.20.30.138.4    - Intervention0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Change in stocks-5.71.1-0.35.00.00.7-0.1-0.3-0.9-0.5Change in public stocks0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Self-sufficiency rate %113.4120.692.884.499.195.7100.797.679.8102.8Note: the cereal marketing year is July-June.Table 1.8  EU-27 oilseeds balance sheets (million t)2015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20e2020/21f19/20 vs19/20vs20/21vs20/21vs18/195-yr. av.*19/205-yr. av.*Production29.529.532.930.827.729.9-9.9-10.87.7-0.2  Rapeseed19.318.319.918.014.916.7-17.0-22.011.7-10.0  Soya beans2.32.52.72.82.73.0-4.58.49.813.5  Sunflower7.98.710.410.010.110.21.38.31.26.4Total domestic use46.846.048.349.949.149.5-1.54.20.72.9  Rapeseed22.521.922.922.721.121.2-7.1-7.00.3-5.3 of which crushing21.721.122.121.920.420.4-6.9-6.80.2-5.3  Soya beans 16.315.315.217.217.617.72.412.80.48.6 of which crushing14.613.513.415.215.515.61.712.00.88.1  Sunflower 8.08.810.210.010.410.64.512.82.09.8 of which crushing6.97.79.18.99.29.43.812.82.19.6Imports18.218.318.219.321.020.58.915.1-2.59.9  Rapeseed3.74.14.24.36.04.738.650.6-21.511.9  Soya beans14.113.413.514.414.214.8-1.64.04.46.5  Sunflower0.50.80.60.50.80.951.154.316.347.6Exports1.01.11.31.11.11.13.3-4.7-2.0-1.0  Rapeseed0.40.40.30.30.30.33.4-19.29.50.0  Soya beans0.20.20.30.20.30.224.124.9-9.70.0  Sunflower0.50.50.70.60.60.5-4.21.3-4.40.0End stocks2.93.75.14.32.82.5-35.3-24.3-8.2-29.9  Rapeseed1.01.22.11.40.90.8-33.9-25.6-11.8-34.3  Soya beans1.21.62.12.01.00.9-48.8-36.7-11.7-43.6  Sunflower0.60.90.90.90.80.8-7.40.50.0-4.3Self-sufficiency rate %63.064.368.261.856.560.4Note: the oilseed marketing year is July-June.% variationEU-27Statistical Annex

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat

36

Table 1.9  EU-27 oilmeals balance sheets (million t)2015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20e2020/21f19/20 vs19/20vs20/21vs20/21vs18/195-yr. av.*19/205-yr. av.*Production27.727.028.129.428.929.1-1.64.70.83.2  Rapeseed12.412.012.612.511.611.7-6.9-6.80.2-5.3  Soya beans11.510.710.612.012.212.31.712.00.88.1  Sunflower3.84.35.04.95.15.23.812.82.19.6Total domestic use48.145.747.548.048.048.20.01.80.40.8  Rapeseed12.311.712.412.611.511.5-8.1-7.0-0.1-5.0  Soya beans29.426.727.227.928.928.83.96.1-0.52.8  Sunflower6.47.27.97.67.67.9-0.64.54.65.9Imports22.120.421.220.321.020.93.20.5-0.6-0.1  Rapeseed0.50.30.40.60.50.5-12.510.8-9.90.0  Soya beans18.616.717.416.517.417.25.21.0-1.30.0  Sunflower3.03.43.53.23.13.2-4.4-3.64.80.0Exports1.81.71.81.71.91.810.76.1-5.00.7  Rapeseed0.60.60.50.50.60.618.75.1-2.50.0  Soya beans0.80.70.70.70.70.70.0-5.01.90.0  Sunflower0.40.40.60.50.60.517.429.3-15.50.0End stocks0.50.50.50.50.50.5-0.5-1.10.50.0  Rapeseed0.10.10.10.10.10.10.00.00.00.0  Soya beans0.40.30.30.30.30.3-0.7-1.60.70.0  Sunflower0.10.10.10.10.10.10.00.00.00.0Self-sufficiency rate %101.1102.6101.499.5100.9101.2Note: the oilmeals marketing year is July-June.% variationEU-27Table 1.10  EU-27 vegetable oils balance sheets (million t)2015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20e2020/21f19/20 vs19/20vs20/21vs20/21vs18/195-yr. av.*19/205-yr. av.*Production14.714.615.515.715.315.4-2.71.30.81.6  Rapeseed8.98.79.09.08.48.4-6.9-6.80.2-5.3  Soya beans2.92.72.73.03.13.11.712.00.88.1  Sunflower2.93.33.83.73.93.93.812.82.19.6  Palm0.00.00.00.00.00.0----Total domestic use21.320.922.323.222.722.3-2.25.2-1.70.8  Rapeseed8.88.59.09.28.58.4-8.2-6.0-1.0-4.4  Soya beans2.22.01.92.42.52.46.025.8-4.011.9  Sunflower3.74.24.74.75.44.913.927.9-8.18.7  Palm6.76.26.66.96.36.5-8.1-3.73.7-0.1Imports8.88.69.19.79.59.1-2.57.1-3.9-0.3  Rapeseed0.30.20.30.50.40.3-19.230.1-17.30.0  Soya beans0.30.30.30.40.50.312.445.7-22.90.0  Sunflower1.31.61.61.72.11.622.739.2-21.80.0  Palm6.96.56.97.16.56.8-8.2-4.44.00.0Exports2.32.32.32.32.12.3-7.0-8.67.2-1.5  Rapeseed0.40.40.30.30.30.315.1-22.012.90.0  Soya beans1.11.01.01.01.01.0-4.0-3.32.40.0  Sunflower0.50.70.70.70.60.7-17.6-9.711.00.0  Palm0.20.20.30.20.20.2-12.2-13.310.80.0End stocks1.51.51.51.51.51.50.40.0-0.10.0  Rapeseed0.60.60.60.60.60.60.80.0-0.40.0  Soya beans0.20.20.20.20.20.20.00.00.00.0  Sunflower0.30.30.30.30.30.32.21.0-1.20.0  Palm0.50.50.50.50.50.5-0.8-1.70.70.0Self-sufficiency rate %69.170.169.767.967.669.3Note: the vegetable oils marketing year is July-June.% variationEU-27Statistical Annex

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat

37

Table 1.11  EU-27 protein crops balance sheets (1 000 t)2015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20e2020/21f19/20 vs19/20vs20/21vs20/21vs18/195-yr. av.*19/205-yr. av.*Production4 2644 6225 1854 0754 269    4 456    4.8-1.24.41.6Field peas1 8972 1292 6061 8952 035      2 157      7.43.16.06.8Broad beans1 2221 2711 383 9971 059      1 198      6.3-8.913.11.2Lentils 59 75 88 115105         125         -8.741.619.039.8Lupins 383 297 264 186260         248         39.81.2-4.6-9.4Chickpeas 61 83 143 216166         192         -23.273.215.646.5Other dry pulses 643 766 701 666643         535         -3.5-4.0-16.8-20.1Total domestic use4 3014 5645 5775 1495 162    5 163    0.210.50.04.1Field peas1 4681 5472 3552 3392 261      2 287      -3.326.71.111.6Broad beans 9691 0361 194 747879         982         17.7-4.111.62.1Lentils 236 286 292 305285         307         -6.65.27.76.8Lupins 472 445 465 408451         409         10.72.8-9.5-10.0Chickpeas 163 183 237 344302         302         -12.455.40.225.8Other dry pulses 9931 0681 0341 005983         876         -2.2-2.8-10.8-13.3Imports 850 9951 4271 6841 465    1 261    -13.032.5-13.9-2.7Field peas 61 141 417 666448         341         -32.787.8-23.91.6Broad beans 23 36 109 82110         72           34.0133.8-34.9-5.5Lentils 181 217 209 196186         188         -5.1-4.91.0-4.7Lupins 89 148 202 222192         161         -13.531.2-16.1-10.9Chickpeas 112 113 126 153161         130         5.637.5-19.1-0.2Other dry pulses 384 340 363 366368         369         0.5-0.10.51.0Exports 8131 0521 035 610572       553       -6.3-30.2-3.3-32.5Field peas 489 723 668 222222         211         0.2-51.7-5.1-54.1Broad beans 276 271 298 331290         288         -12.52.9-0.70.0Lentils 5 6 6 66             6             2.3-0.7-1.50.0Lupins 0 0 0 00             0             151.2101.6-50.4-5.3Chickpeas 10 14 33 2425           20           4.359.5-22.0-6.3Other dry pulses 33 38 30 2728           28           4.3-6.10.5-6.8Note: the protein crops marketing year is July-June.% variationEU-27SUGARTable 1.12  Sugar beet production and white sugar balance in the EU+UK (million t white sugar equivalent)EU + UK% variation2015/162016/172017/182018/19e2019/20f18/19 vs18/19 vs19/20 vs19/20 vs 17/185-yr. av.* 18/195-yr. av.*Beginning stocks4.01.92.22.41.89.9-8.5-24.5-23.8White sugar production14.916.821.317.617.4-17.3-0.5-1.5-3.4Imports2.92.51.31.92.046.6-31.06.7-16.0Total availabilities21.921.224.821.921.2-11.6-5.8-3.3-7.2Total domestic uses white sugar18.617.719.018.518.3-2.8-2.4-1.0-2.1 - Human16.616.217.316.916.8-1.90.4-0.80.0    o.w. net exports in processed products0.91.01.01.11.111.826.70.019.5 - Industrial1.91.51.81.61.5-11.4-20.2-3.2-14.2    o.w. bioethanol1.10.80.90.80.7-16.7-33.1-6.7-25.6Exports1.41.33.41.61.1-52.018.0-31.7-24.0Total uses19.919.022.420.119.4-10.2-1.8-3.5-4.4End stocks1.92.22.41.81.8-24.5-23.8-1.6-17.6Self-sufficiency rate %80951129595Note: the sugar marketing year is October-September.Statistical Annex

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat

38

APPLESTable 1.14 EU-27 apple market balance sheets (1 000 t)2015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20f18/19 vs 18/19 vs19/20 vs 19/20 vs17/185-yr.av.*18/195-yr.av.*Area 523 507 506 507 4950.3-0.9-2.5-3.0Yield 24 24 19 26 2238.315.1-16.8-7.1Gross production12 30812 1129 59513 31010 80238.714.1-18.8-9.9Losses and feed use 793 770 604 828 66337.210.5-20.0-0.1EU usable production11 51611 3428 99112 48210 13938.814.3-18.8-9.7EU production for fresh consumption8 2147 7856 0207 4586 93923.90.3-7.0-6.9Imports (fresh)326308412361350-12.53.1-3.03.8Exports (fresh)1 7911 6909161 3941 02552.3-15.1-26.5-34.2Consumption (fresh)6 7196 3405 8336 0136 7283.1-2.211.98.5per capita (fresh/kg) 15.114.313.113.515.02.8-2.911.77.8Stock fresh apples* 407 469 153 564 100----Change in fresh apple stock 30 63- 317 411- 464----EU production for processing 3 3023 5572 9715 0243 20069.144.3-36.3-15.2Exports (processed)1 0771 2039951 9281 56893.862.4-18.713.7Imports (processed)1 1041 0221 6731 1621 241-30.5-5.66.83.0Consumption (processed)3 3293 3773 6504 2572 87316.720.8-32.5-20.2per capita (processed/kg) 7.57.68.29.56.416.419.9-32.6-20.7Self-sufficiency rate %  122125101130113* stocks by the end of July Note: the apple marketing year is August-July.% variationEU-27SPECIALISED CROPSOLIVE OILTable 1.13  EU-27 olive oil balance sheets (1 000 t)2015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20f18/19 vs 18/19 vs19/20 vs 19/20 vs17/185-yr.av.*18/195-yr.av.*Production2 3241 7422 1882 2641 9313.411.3-14.7-3.0Total domestic use1 5731 3291 5381 4501 526-5.8-5.05.23.0Imports  10092182147140-19.311.9-4.8-6.5Exports  63061662470965013.514.4-8.33.4End stocks  43332353178367947.684.0-13.348.9Self-sufficiency rate %  148131142156127Note: the olive oil marketing year is October-September.EU-27% variationStatistical Annex

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat

39

ORANGESTable 1.15 EU-27 oranges market balance (1 000 t fresh equivalent)2015/162016/172017/182018/192019/20f18/19 vs 18/19 vs19/20 vs 19/20 vs17/185-yr.av.*18/195-yr.av.* Area (million ha)   286 279 272 274 2720.4-3.6-0.5-2.5 Yield (t/ha)  21 23 23 24 234.66.9-4.41.3 Production (total) 5 9316 3256 2066 5186 2055.03.8-4.8-1.2 Production (fresh) 4 6454 8345 0525 2695 1604.36.2-2.13.6 Apparent consumption (fresh) 5 0385 2765 5185 6575 5732.56.4-1.53.0per capita (fresh/kg) 11.311.912.412.712.52.45.7-1.72.5 Imports (fresh) 837861909881881-3.16.10.02.4 Exports (fresh) 44541944349346811.212.6-5.07.0 Production (for processing) 1 2861 4911 1541 2491 0458.2-6.6-16.3-17.2 Apparent consumption (processed) 5 1954 3803 9293 8503 725-2.0-23.1-3.2-17.2per capita (processed/kg)  12 10 9 9 8-2.2-23.5-3.4-17.7 Imports (processed) 5 3744 4324 3904 1934 193-4.5-18.30.0-11.4 Exports (processed) 1 4651 5431 6141 5931 513-1.46.5-5.0-1.3Note: the oranges marketing year is October-September.EU-27% variationWINETable 1.16 EU-27 wine market balance (million hectolitres)2015/162016/172017/182018/192019/2018/19 vs 18/19 vs19/20 vs 19/20 vs17/185-yr.av.*18/195-yr.av.* Area (million ha) 3.23.23.23.23.20.30.20.20.5 Yield (t/ha)  53 53 42 57 4937.014.6-14.3-3.5 Vinified production 16917113318315737.414.8-14.1-3.1 Domestic use 14514312814013213.416.0-12.01.5    of which human consumption  119 119 113 116 1082.5-1.0-6.7-7.7    of which other uses  26 23 15 24 2458.913.70.010.0 per capita consumption (l) 26.826.825.325.924.12.2-1.7-6.9-8.3 Imports 88887-5.3-7.3-10.8-15.5 Exports  2931313026-1.02.2-14.4-13.8 Total Ending Stocks  165 170 153 174 18013.76.83.79.6 Variation in stocks  3 5- 17 21 6Note: the wine marketing year is August-July.EU-27% variationStatistical Annex

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat

40

Table 1.19  EU-27 cheese market balance (1 000 t)20152016201720182019e2020f16/1517/1618/1719/1820/19Production (in dairies)9 4759 6599 7809 8729 9089 9661.91.30.90.40.6   of which from pure cow's milk8 6338 7988 8938 9598 9929 0451.91.10.70.40.6   of which from other milk1 842 860 887 913 916 9212.23.12.90.30.5Processed cheese impact2 350 365 367 372 377 3824.30.71.31.31.3Total production 9 82510 02410 14710 24410 28510 3472.01.21.00.40.6Imports (extra EU)3 187 195 191 197 211 2013.8-1.83.07.3-5.0Exports (extra EU)1 1591 2311 2751 2791 3451 3656.23.60.45.11.5Total domestic use8 8399 0149 0649 1629 1519 1832.00.61.1-0.10.3Stock changes 14- 26 0 0 0 0-----Processing use 293 303 306 309 313 3183.31.30.81.51.5Human consumption8 5468 7118 7578 8538 8388 8641.90.51.1-0.20.3per capita consumption (kg)19.319.719.719.919.919.91.80.41.0-0.30.2Self-sufficiency rate (%)1111111121121121131 Other milk includes goat, ewe and buffalo milk.2 Processed cheese impact includes production and net exports of processed cheese.3 Imports and exports include processed cheese.Table 1.20  EU-27 whole milk powder market balance (1 000 t)20152016201720182019e2020f16/1517/1618/1719/1820/19Production6777057497027056914.06.3-6.30.5-2.0Imports3941344343436.7-17.025.2-0.70.0Exports386381404346315293-1.25.9-14.2-9.0-7.0Domestic Use133036537939843344110.54.05.08.71.8Self-sufficiency rate (%)2051931971761631571 Domestic use includes stock changes.% variationEU-27% variationEU-27DAIRYTable 1.17  Milk supply and utilisation in the EU-2720152016201720182019e2020f16/1517/1618/1719/1820/19Dairy cows (million heads)121.421.421.220.820.520.4-0.1-1.1-1.8-1.2-0.7Milk yield (kg/dairy cow)26761683169737159728673661.02.12.71.81.1Milk production (million t)147.4148.5149.9151.3151.9152.50.70.90.90.40.4Feed use (million t)3.33.53.23.23.23.27.3-8.4-0.6-0.6-0.6On farm use and direct sales (mio t)6.66.15.75.95.95.9-6.4-6.72.30.40.4Delivered to dairies (million t)137.6138.8140.9142.2142.8143.40.91.50.90.40.4Delivery ratio (%)393.393.594.094.094.094.00.20.60.00.00.0Fat content of milk (%)4.04.14.04.04.14.11.4-0.4-0.51.20.0Protein content of milk (%)3.43.43.53.53.53.51.91.20.00.90.01 Dairy cow numbers refer to the end of the year (historical figures from the December cattle survey).2 Milk yield is dairy cow production per dairy cows (dairy cows represent 99.7% of EU total production).3 Delivery ratio is milk delivered to dairies per total production.Table 1.18  EU-27 fresh dairy products market balance (1 000 t)20152016201720182019e2020f16/1517/1618/1719/1820/19Production38 61938 69238 37437 94537 62137 4860.2-0.8-1.1-0.9-0.4   of which Drinking Milk24 43524 13223 79823 34722 88022 652-1.2-1.4-1.9-2.0-1.0   of which Cream2 4152 4462 4782 4122 4892 4891.31.3-2.73.20.0   of which Acidified Milk7 7587 8797 8737 8687 7897 8281.6-0.1-0.1-1.00.5   of which Other Fresh Products24 0124 2344 2264 3184 4634 5175.5-0.22.23.31.2Imports (extra EU) 610 625 805 876 822 8052.628.78.9-6.2-2.0Exports (extra EU)1 4611 6601 6441 6031 6991 69913.6-1.0-2.56.00.0Domestic use137 76837 65737 53537 21836 74436 592-0.3-0.3-0.8-1.3-0.4per capita consumption (kg)85.485.084.683.882.682.2-0.4-0.5-1.0-1.4-0.5Self-sufficiency rate (%)1021031021021021021 Domestic use includes stock changes.                                                                                                                                                                           2 Includes buttermilk, drinks with milk base and other fresh commodities.Notes: The figures on imports and exports are referring to total trade, i.e. including inward processing.                                                               The figures on production were updated with the update of Eurostat database on 5th April.EU-27% variationEU-27% variationStatistical Annex

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat

41

MEATTable 1.23  EU-27 overall meat balance (1 000 t carcass weight equivalent)201520162017201820192020f16/1517/1618/1719/1820/19Gross Indigenous Production42 26743 48543 37344 46444 49844 7502.9-0.32.50.10.6Live Imports678776-----Live Exports 294 331 355 359 350 33312.67.11.3-2.6-4.7Net Production41 97943 16143 02744 11244 15544 4232.8-0.32.50.10.6Meat Imports1 5491 5871 5201 5461 5681 5642.4-4.21.71.4-0.3Meat Exports5 6916 5296 4066 5517 2907 82214.7-1.92.311.37.3Consumption37 83738 21938 14039 10638 43338 1651.0-0.22.5-1.7-0.7Population (mio)444.2445.2445.8446.5446.5448.00.20.10.20.00.3per capita Consumption (kg)67.968.568.269.968.768.10.9-0.42.4-1.6-1.0Self-sufficiency (%)112114114114116117Note: Meat production data excludes the offal and fat categories (with the exception of pork lard).Meat per capita consumption is in retail weight. Coefficients to transform carcass weight into retail weight are: 0.7 for beef and veal meat; 0.78 for pigmeat; 0.88 for both poultry meat, and sheep and goat meat.Table 1.24  EU-27 beef/veal market balance (1 000 t carcass weight equivalent)201520162017201820192020f16/1517/1618/1719/1820/19Gross Indigenous Production6 9637 1667 1967 3247 2487 1942.90.41.8-1.0-0.7Live Imports 1 2 2 2 2 3-----Live Exports 190 228 246 246 235 22320.17.9-0.3-4.4-5.0Net Production6 7746 9396 9517 0807 0166 9742.40.21.9-0.9-0.6Meat Imports 330 351 348 371 386 3866.2-0.86.73.90.0Meat Exports 506 585 613 595 577 58315.44.8-2.9-3.01.0Consumption6 5986 7056 6866 8576 8256 7771.6-0.32.6-0.5-0.7per capita Consumption (kg)10.410.510.510.710.710.61.4-0.42.4-0.5-1.0Share in total meat consumption17.417.517.517.517.817.8Self-sufficiency (%)106107108107106106% variation% variationEU-27EU-27Table 1.21  EU-27 skimmed milk powder market balance (1 000 t)20152016201720182019e2020f16/1517/1618/1719/1820/19Production1 4101 4821 4481 4641 4711 5085.1-2.31.10.52.5Imports (extra EU)534455465751-16.724.3-15.622.6-10.0Exports (extra EU) 707 597 794 826 946 785-15.533.04.114.5-17.0Domestic use 651 711 755 821 803 7399.26.28.7-2.1-8.0Ending stocks 276 494 448 311 90 125Private (industry) 249 149 80 220 90 125Public (intervention) 27 345 368 91 0 0Stock changes 106 218- 46- 137- 221 35Self-sufficiency rate (%) 217 208 192 178 183 204Table 1.22  EU-27 butter market balance (1 000 t)20152016201720182019e2020f16/1517/1618/1719/1820/19Production2 1562 2502 2532 2862 3112 3384.30.11.51.11.2Imports 50 51 48 59 59 322.0-6.623.7-0.6-45.0Exports 259 288 243 234 292 26311.6-15.9-3.424.5-10.0Domestic use1 9402 0302 0672 0952 0932 0984.61.81.4-0.10.2per capita consumption (kg)4.394.584.664.724.714.714.51.71.2-0.20.2Ending stocks 132 114 105 120 105 115Private 132 114 105 120 105 115Public (intervention) 0 0 0 0 0 0Stock changes 8- 18- 9 15- 15 10Self-sufficiency rate (%) 111 111 109 109 110 111Note: Data refer to butter, butter oil and other yellow fat products expressed in butter equivalent. Figures on imports and exports do not include inward/outward processing.% variationEU-27% variationEU-27Statistical Annex

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat

42

Table 1.25  EU-27 pigmeat market balance (1 000 t carcass weight equivalent)201520162017201820192020f16/1517/1618/1719/1820/19Gross Indigenous Production22 58922 98422 80223 20523 06523 2151.7-0.81.8-0.60.7Live Imports 2 2 1 1 1 1-----Live Exports 53 38 45 51 43 41-28.018.312.3-16.4-3.0Net Production22 53722 94722 75823 15623 02323 1751.8-0.81.7-0.60.7Meat Imports 143 152 154 167 170 1716.41.48.31.61.0Meat Exports3 1443 6953 4983 5804 1734 67317.5-5.42.316.612.0Consumption19 53619 40419 41419 74319 02118 673-0.70.11.7-3.7-1.8per capita Consumption (kg)34.334.034.034.533.232.5-0.9-0.11.5-3.7-2.2Share in total meat consumption51.650.850.950.549.548.9Self-sufficiency (%)116118117118121124Table 1.26  EU-27 poultry meat market balance (1 000 t carcass weight equivalent)201520162017201820192020f16/1517/1618/1719/1820/19Gross Indigenous Production12 10912 71212 75213 30313 50913 6685.00.34.31.51.2Live Imports 3 3 4 3 3 3-----Live Exports 13 12 10 12 10 10-4.9-14.715.1-13.5-3.0Net Production12 09912 70312 74513 29513 50213 6605.00.34.31.61.2Meat Imports 903 914 849 835 851 8471.3-7.2-1.61.8-0.5Meat Exports2 0012 2082 2412 3262 4832 50810.41.53.86.71.0Consumption11 00111 40911 35411 80411 86911 9993.7-0.54.00.61.1per capita Consumption (kg)21.822.622.423.323.423.63.5-0.63.80.60.8Share in total meat consumption29.129.929.830.230.931.4Self-sufficiency (%)110111112113114114% variation% variationEU-27EU-27Table 1.27  EU-27 sheep and goat meat market balance (1 000 t carcass weight equivalent)201520162017201820192020f16/1517/1618/1719/1820/19Gross Indigenous Production 606 623 624 632 675 6722.90.21.26.9-0.5Live Imports 0 1 1 1 0 0-----Live Exports 38 52 53 51 62 5938.30.3-3.322.4-5.0Net Production 568 572 572 581 613 6130.60.11.65.50.0  of which on-farm slaughterings 101 103 99 97 134 1342.4-4.6-1.238.00.0Meat Imports 174 170 169 172 162 160-2.1-0.51.9-6.1-1.0Meat Exports 40 41 55 51 57 583.135.9-8.412.02.0Consumption 702 701 686 703 718 716-0.2-2.12.52.2-0.4per capita Consumption (kg)1.41.41.41.41.41.4-0.4-2.32.32.2-0.7Share in total meat consumption1.91.81.81.81.91.9Self-sufficiency (%)868991909494EU-27% variationStatistical Annex

Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat

43

Table 1.28  Share of EU-27 exports by destination (volume)CerealsSoft wheatBarleySugarMeat, offal,liveBeef*Pork*Poultry*Infant formulaDairy productsCheesecurdSMP and WMPWhey powderOlive oilWineApples (fresh)Apples (processed)Peaches & Nectarines (fresh)Peaches & Nectarines (processed)Oranges (fresh)Oranges (processed)Tomatoes (fresh)Tomatoes (processed)20091%0%11%0%3%0%5%0%8%5%0%2%27%3%4%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%20195%3%14%0%25%2%41%1%41%17%1%11%29%6%8%0%2%0%0%8%2%0%1%20092%1%8%0%3%1%2%4%8%8%1%10%31%1%2%1%1%0%8%0%1%0%1%20194%5%6%0%8%5%7%13%3%11%2%23%35%2%1%2%1%0%13%1%1%0%1%200934%38%4%20%0%3%0%0%9%9%5%24%4%2%1%9%1%0%8%2%1%0%4%201926%33%11%10%1%10%0%0%8%7%5%15%2%1%1%23%1%3%6%0%1%0%5%200923%25%23%6%7%5%4%14%7%12%1%21%2%3%10%1%2%0%2%1%4%0%13%201919%25%11%12%11%10%4%27%4%13%2%13%5%2%6%2%3%1%1%1%2%0%6%200918%21%11%31%4%3%1%13%22%13%6%23%2%3%1%5%5%1%20%1%3%0%2%201921%18%33%32%3%10%1%5%13%13%9%17%3%3%1%16%2%3%10%8%3%2%6%20091%1%0%0%1%0%2%0%3%2%12%0%0%41%32%0%6%0%10%1%1%1%8%20192%0%4%0%2%1%3%0%1%3%12%3%1%39%29%0%21%0%24%8%1%0%11%20096%4%6%19%35%61%31%36%16%28%41%9%5%12%12%16%62%28%28%32%75%70%44%20194%3%2%23%24%37%18%33%8%15%37%5%8%9%23%13%50%31%16%27%75%75%40%Note: * meat, offal and live animals.Source: COMEXT-Eurostat.Group definitions:ASEAN: Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam, Singapore.North Africa: Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt.Middle East: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Georgia.NAFTA: US, Mexico, Canada.USAMexicoCanadaOther Africa: Sudan, Lesotho, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Cape Verde, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bisau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe, Gabon, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, St. Helena ascension and Tristan da Cuhna, Angola, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibuti, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Seyshelles, British Indian Ocean Territory, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, Comoros, mayotte, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Swaziland.UKChinaASEANNorth AfricaOther AfricaMiddle EastExecutive Summary

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