Horizon scanning for nuclear safety, security & safeguards yearly report - 2019 : creating an anticipatory capacity within the JRC.
Date: 2020-03-26
Institutions: Joint Research Centre
Subjects: Joint Research Centre, nuclear policy, nuclear safety, nuclear security, nuclear technology, report

Horizon Scanning for Nuclear  
Safety, Security & Safeguards 
Yearly Report - 2019 

Creating an anticipatory  
capacity within the JRC 

Wastin, F., Simola, K., Tanarro 
Colodron, J., Liessens, A., Simic, Z., 
Eulaerts, O.D. 

2020 

EUR  30153  EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
This publication  is  a Science for Policy report  by the Joint Research  Centre (JRC),  the European  Commission’s 
science and  knowledge  service. It aims  to provide  evidence-based scientific support  to the European 
policymaking  process. The scientific output expressed  does not imply  a polic y position  of the European 
Commission.  Neither  the European  Commission  nor  any person  acting on  behalf of the Commission  is 
responsible  for the use that might  be made  of this publication.  For information  on the methodology  and  quality 
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material  on the maps  do not imply  the expression  of any opinion  whatsoever on  the part of the European  Union 
concerning  the legal  status of any country, territory,  city or  area or  of its authorities,  or concerning  the 
delimitation  of its frontiers  or boundaries. 

Contact information 
Name:  F. Wastin 
Address:  Westerduinweg  3, 1755  LE  Petten 
Email:  Franck.Wastin@ec.europa.eu   
Tel.: +31*224  56 5066 

EU Science  Hub 
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc  

JRC118824 

EUR  30153  EN 

PDF 

ISBN  978-92-76-17510-0 

ISSN  1831-9424 

doi:10.2760/1105 

Luxembourg:  Publications  Office of the European  Union,  2020 

© European  Atomic  Energy  Community,  2020 

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All  content © European  Atomic  Energy,  2020 

How  to cite this report:  Wastin, F., Simola,  K.,  Tanarro Colodron,  J., Liessens,  A., Simic,  Z., Eulaerts,  O.D. , 
Horizon  Scanning  for Nuclear Safety, Security & Safeguards,  Yearly report - 2019,  EUR  30153  EN,  Publications 
Office of the European  Union,  Luxembourg,  2020,  ISBN  978-92-76-17510-0,  doi:10.2760/1105,  JRC118824. 

i 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Contents 

Abstract ...............................................................................................................1 

1  Introduction ......................................................................................................2 

2  Outcomes of the HS sense making sessions ..........................................................3 

3  Foresight stories ................................................................................................5 

3.1  Evidence-based energy strategy to tackle the climate change............................5 

3.1.1  Description and time horizons................................................................5 

3.1.2  Risks and opportunities.........................................................................6 

3.2  The consequences of the absence of a future oriented nuclear policy ..................6 

3.2.1  Description and time horizons................................................................6 

3.2.2  Risks and opportunities.........................................................................6 

3.3  Global perspective of Nuclear powered transport .............................................7 

3.3.1  Description and time horizons................................................................7 

3.3.2  Risks and opportunities.........................................................................7 

4  Nuclear Technology Observatory .........................................................................8 

4.1  Artificial Intelligence for nuclear applications ...................................................9 

4.2  “Load following” impact on nuclear power ..................................................... 12 

4.3  Accident Tolerant Fuels............................................................................... 15 

5  Conclusions .................................................................................................... 18 

6  Annexes ......................................................................................................... 19 

6.1  Annex 1. Horizon Scanning participants ........................................................ 19 

6.1.1  List of appointed Horizon Scanners from Dir G ....................................... 19 

6.1.2  List of Aggregators contributing to the Horizon Scanning for Nuclear Safety, 
Security & Safeguards .................................................................................. 19 

6.1.3  List of other contributors to the Horizon Scanning sense-making sessions . 19 

6.2  Annex 2. Descriptions of clusters with associated risks and opportunities .......... 21 

6.3  Annex 3. Bibliographic analysis tool and approach ......................................... 28 

6.3.1  JRC Tools for Innovation Monitoring (TIM)............................................. 28 

6.3.2  Approach .......................................................................................... 28 

6.4  Annex 4. Methodology ................................................................................ 30 

6.4.1  Scanning .......................................................................................... 30 

6.4.2  Sense-making workshop ..................................................................... 30 

6.4.2.1  Preparation ................................................................................. 30 

6.4.2.2  Participation ................................................................................ 31 

6.4.3  Reporting .......................................................................................... 32 

List of abbreviations and definitions ....................................................................... 33 

List of figures ...................................................................................................... 34 

List of tables ....................................................................................................... 35 

ii 

Abstract 

Horizon  Scanning  (HS)  is  a  systematic  outlook  to  detect  early  signs  of  potentially 
important  developments.  JRC.I.2  unit  created  and,  in  collaboration  with  partner  JRC 
Knowledge Management Units, tested a methodology for a horizon scanning process at 
JRC level. Benefiting from this support and following this methodology, JRC.G.10 unit has 
collected throughout the year 2019 a number of ideas related to nuclear technology, later 
on filtered and clustered in the so called 'sense-making workshops'. This report presents 
the outcome of this exercise. 

1 

1  Introduction 

The JRC Strategy 2030 specifically stresses the need for JRC to develop anticipation by 
stating the following in its chapter 8 ("A stronger anticipation culture"): 

"There  are  many  reasons  why  the  Commission’s  anticipatory  capacity  needs  to  be 
strengthened. First, it would enable it to identify its knowledge needs very early on. This 
would give it time to amass the evidence it needs to launch well prepared policies and 
proposals in a timely fashion. It would be able to future-proof its impact assessments and 
its REFIT evaluations. Anticipating social changes and public opinion movements would 
contribute to shaping public debates and proposing new narratives, instead of being on 
the defensive." 

In this context, the horizon scanning has been identified as one of the necessary tools 
"which  strives  to  identify and make sense of weak and diffuse indications of still hazy 
emerging trends or paradigm shifts". 

The Horizon Scanning for Nuclear Safety, Security & Safeguards exercise is an initiative 
that attempts to build on this capacity and to provide anticipatory support by: 

  Embedding a culture of anticipation throughout Dir G. 

  Developing  expertise  in  the  use  of  the  horizon  scanning  to  detect  and analyse 

early signs in order to identify important emerging issues. 

In order to detect these early signs of potentially important developments, three different 
actions led by groups of experts were carried out in the exercise: 

  Continuous scanning of nuclear technology sources by Scanners from across the 
JRC Dir G who picked up single ideas that were recorded in CONNECTED. The list 
of Horizon Scanners from Dir G can be found in Annex 1. 

  Sense-making  sessions  led  by  Aggregators  who  reviewed  the  scanned  ideas, 
selected  sets  of  relevant  items,  and  organised  the  discussions.  The  list  of 
Aggregators contributing to the Horizon Scanning for Nuclear Safety, Security & 
Safeguards can also be found in Annex 1. 

  Bibliographic  data  analysis  exercises  by  analysts who performed a quantitative 
study  of  the  scientific  literature  addressing  the  research  topics  underlying  the 
clusters of ideas identified during the workshops. The data analysts involved are 
amongst the authors of this report. 

The  chapter  dedicated  to  the  Nuclear Technology Observatory summarises the results 
obtained  after  studying,  with  the  JRC  Tools  for  Innovation  Monitoring  (TIM),  the 
technologies  referenced  by  the  ideas  identified  during  the  continuous  scanning,  thus 
enabling  an  assessment  and  better  understanding  of  their  potential  importance  and 
implications. 

The knowledge management team working on nuclear technology (JRC.G.10) has taken 
up the horizon scanning activity with dedication and enthusiasm since 2017. The original 
focus  has  been  mainly  on nuclear-related issues. In 2019, also other JRC directorates 
joined the nuclear horizon scanning to broaden scope of the exercise and to include other 
relevant related domains. 

The present report is the result of those multi-directorate sense-making workshop s that 
brought  together  colleagues  from  different  units  in  Directorates  C,  E,  F,  G  and  I  to 
discuss about the future of nuclear technology. 

2 

2    Outcomes of the HS sense making sessions 

During  2019,  three  sense-making  sessions  were  organised.  The  first  session  was 
organised in collaboration with Dir. C (Energy Transport and Climate) and Dir E (Space, 
Security  and  Migration)  in  order  to  capture  interdisciplinary  insights  on  energy  and 
security  issues.  The  second  session  was  organised in collaboration with Dir F  (Health, 
Consumers and Reference Materials) to cover potential links between nuclear technology 
and health. The last sense-making session remained focused on Dir. G. In each sense-
making workshop, the participants reviewed and clustered about 100 ideas. 

During  the  first  two  sense-making  workshops,  the  participants  also  considered  the 
potential  impact  over  time  of  the  most  interesting  clusters.  Three  distinctive  time 
horizons mark the reference of the maximum impact: 

  H1: Clusters capturing already ongoing trends, 
  H2: Clusters representing new emerging trends, which are foreseen to have an 

impact in the coming 5 years, 

  H3: Less obvious weak signals, having their maximum impact in 10 years or later. 

Figure 1 illustrates these three time horizons. 

Figure  1. Horizon Scanning  three considered time horizons 

The summary of the clusters of ideas and their time horizon from the two first workshops 
are listed in Table 1. 

3 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table  1. Clusters of ideas  and their  time horizon (1st and 2nd sense-making workshops). 

Name of the cluster 

Nuclear energy back in the political agenda 

The globalisation of technological development causing environmental degradation 

A complicated relation between the EU  and China 

Climate change calls for non-ideological assessments of plans for energy mix 

Polarisation of public debate is preventing action on climate change  

The current policy cycle can't  keep up with the rapidly changing world 

Trust as the most precious political asset in a culture of fear 

Nuclear business model getting small 

Digital new business models becoming 'physical' 

Nuclear micro-reactors powering maritime transportation 

Governments and corporations knowing you better than you know yourself  

Hardware hacking as weapon against energy infrastructure 

Access to resources will put a brake on technological deployment 

Nuclear  energy  for  climate  change  mitigation  –  change  in  public  perception/  new  nuclear 
technologies ; limitations of resources 

Global environmental change will soon threaten global population 

Workshop 
# 

Time 
horizon 

H1 

H2 

H3 

1 

1 

1 

2 

2 

2 

1 

1 

1 

1 

1 

1 

2 

2 

2 

In the case of the third workshop, a slightly different approach was applied. The focus 
was on utilising both the most recent scanned items and the clusters of ideas from earlier 
workshops, in order to merge them in a smaller set of stories for further development. 

Based on the discussions at the third workshop, the following significant clusters of id eas 
were identified: 

  The power of meaning in the struggle of facts vs emotions. 
  Trust, the great stabiliser of participatory, honest and effective governance. 
  The growing gap between evolving technology and its institutional regulation. 
  The new look and feel of non-energy nuclear applications. 
  Building resilience in a context of changing climate. 
  Energy storage making nuclear obsolete for base-load of energy grid. 

These  clusters  were  not  developed  further, but they were considered for the foresight 
stories of the latest workshop. 

4 

 
 
 
 
 
3  Foresight stories 

The  foresight  stories  refer  to  the  longer-term  horizon  (H3)  and  aim  to  capture  the 
possible impact in ten years of the weak signals considered most interesting today. They 
are  the  outcome  of  a  creative  process  in  which  the  group  reflects  jointly  about  the 
further-reaching consequences of ongoing and emerging trends. 

For each of the clusters listed in Table 1, foresight reflections looking ten and more years 
in the future were developed, identifying risks and opportunities related to the cluster. 
Brief descriptions for all clusters, with associated risks and opportunities, are collected in 
Annex 2. 

As mentioned earlier, during the third workshop the aim was to integrate the findings of 
the  first  two  2019  workshops  in  the  foresight  stories  to  be developed. The new three 
overarching foresight stories were developed and presented in the following subchapters. 

3.1  Evidence-based  energy  strategy  to  tackle  the  climate 

change 

Numerous clusters from the sense-making workshops were related to the role of nuclear 
in the fight against climate change.  The following clusters are considered in relation to 
this foresight story: 

  Climate change calls for non-ideological assessments of plans for energy mix. 
  Polarisation of public debate is preventing action on climate change. 
  Nuclear energy for climate change mitigation – change in public perception/ new 

nuclear technologies; limitations of resources. 

  The power of meaning in the struggle of facts vs emotions. 
  Trust, the great stabiliser of participatory, honest and effective governance. 

The  workshop  discussed  the  need  to design evidence based long-term strategies that 
gain  the  trust  of  citizens  rather  than  focusing  on  narratives  based  on  fear,  false 
information and emotions. This situation would imply many challenges for the scientific 
community. 

3.1.1  Description  and time  horizons 

At  present  the  issue  of  climate  change  has  gained  high  importance  in  the  political 
agenda,  moving  up  to  the  main  political  priorities of the new European Commission’s 
political leadership (The European Green Deal). The related debate has been intensively 
fed by: 1) the economic focus, 2) the consideration of the global climate change related 
trends brought to the table by the scientific community and 3) the prioritisation of the 
protection of environment. 

The scientific community does not propose a single answer to the challenge, as t here is 
no unique possible strategy. There are different qualitative factors at play that require 
political consideration and broad consensus. In order to make the different alternatives 
comparable,  those factors need to be assessed and well understood. In the  midterm, 
different energy models and strategies  will emerge, taking into account key indicators 
including considerations such as transition costs and time, long term economic impact, 
environmental  impact,  related  health  and  safety  risks,  level  of  confidence  and 
completeness of the underlying data, etc. 

Following  this  trend,  the  longer-term  might  see  the  conversation  flip  towards  the 
meaning and value of key indicators. Just for the shake of imagining a far-fetched future 
scenario,  costs  could  well  end  up  being  the most relevant indicator for countries with 
struggling  economies,  the  reliability  of  the  underlying  data  becoming  negligible  for 
populists or the most radical environmentalists considering environmental impact as the 
only indicator worth considering. 

5 

3.1.2  Risks and opportunities 

  Risk for the public: If the discussion about these key indicators fails to engage 
the average citizen, the general public might end up feeling frustrated and looking 
for  political  options  that  express  their  distrust  against  energy  experts  and 
scientists. 

  Risk  to  science:  As  the  scientific  discussion  opens  to  consider  values  and 
meaning, it might become also more political and lose its respected neutrality by 
using the harmful tactics of negative political confrontations. 

  Opportunity:  A  long-term  evidence  based  energy  strategy  would  benefit  of  a 
broad and inclusive discussion about the meaning of the complex key indicators 
such as risk and environmental impact in the context of climate change. 

3.2  The  consequences  of  the  absence  of  a  future  oriented 

nuclear policy 

The following clusters are considered in relation to the consequences of a frozen nuclear 
policy foresight: 

  Nuclear energy back in the political agenda. 
  The current policy cycle cannot keep up with the rapidly changing world. 
  Building resilience in a context of changing climate. 
  Trust, the great stabiliser of participatory, honest and effective governance. 
  The growing gap between evolving technology and related institutional regulation. 

The  workshop  participants  discussed  about a scenario in which  there is an absence of 
political action embedding the sustainable use of nuclear technology. The absence of a 
nuclear  policy advancement may prevent licencing, constructing and operation of new 
reactors. 

3.2.1  Description  and time  horizons 

At  present  many  governments  in  Europe  tend  to  avoid  an  active  policy  on  nuclear 
technology. Nuclear power plants continue aging in Europe, approaching the end of their 
operating life without an alternative backup plan. 

If governments are unable to sustain the trust of citizens and the effects of the changing 
climate worsen, new severe climate-related urgencies and emergencies will overwhelm 
the political agenda in the midterm, leaving no space for decision on long term strategy 
actions. European nuclear industry might be anchored in the past and it would become 
less  and  less  attractive  to  the  new  generations  of  professionals  looking  for  emerging  
innovative career challenges, while new nuclear technologies might have evolved fast in 
other countries, leaving Europe in a state of dependency.  

The  consequences  would  become  apparent  in  the  longer-term.  The  energy  security 
being at stake might push private companies to acquire foreign solutions to guarantee 
the  power  supply  of their investments. This could be the time when foreign advanced 
designs  might  escape  the  technical  expertise  and  capabilities  of  European  nuclear 
regulators.  This  would  in  turn  limit  the  potential  of  nuclear  power  to  maintain  a 
significant  role  in  the  energy  mix,  thus  affecting  the reduction of climate change and 
weakening the energy security and the economy. 

3.2.2  Risks and opportunities 

  Risk: The European nuclear industry will  continue weakening and in the future, 
for new nuclear technologies, Europe might end up relying on foreign technology. 
Along  with  the nuclear industry, European manufacturers of larger components 
will also suffer. 

6 

  Opportunity: A common future-oriented European nuclear strategy could sustain 
a common European nuclear technology market  and regulation allowing the full 
use  of  potential  alternative  solutions  for  the  climate  change  problems  and 
challenges. 

3.3  Global perspective of nuclear-powered transport 

The following related clusters are considered in relation to the nuclear powered transport 
foresight story beyond Europe: 

  Nuclear business model getting small.  
  Nuclear micro-reactors powering maritime transportation. 
  The growing gap between evolving technology and its institutional regulation. 
  The new look and feel of non-energy nuclear applications. 

The  workshop  participants  discussed  about  the  opportunities  of  nuclear  propulsion  to 
reduce the emissions coming from transport worldwide, about why these opportunities 
are more likely to be leveraged outside the EU and about the potential consequences of 
that scenario for Europe. 

3.3.1  Description  and time  horizons 

At  present  the  first  floating  nuclear  power  plant  designed  by  the  Russian 
Rosenergoatom, the Akademik Lomonosov, has begun its operation. At the same time, 
the  Russian  Atomflot  which  maintains  the  world’s  only  fleet  of  nuclear-powered 
icebreakers,  continues  deploying  a  new  generation  of  nuclear-powered  ships  for  the 
exploitation of the Northern Sea Route. 

As other countries, like China, start deploying their own civil nuclear-powered fleets with 
different  purposes,  a  demand  might  start  emerging  in  the  midterm  from  countries 
unable to design and build their own ships but willing to acquire  and use those built by 
others. 

In  the  longer-term,  we  might  see  powerful  global  actors  like  Russia  and  China 
supported  by  other  interested  countries  in  Asia,  Africa  and  America,  aligning  their 
geopolitical interests and pushing jointly for establishing regional agreements for the civil 
use of nuclear-powered ships. 

3.3.2  Risks and opportunities 

  Risk  -  Nuclear  technology  becoming  predominant  in  powering  commercial 
maritime  transportation  would imply new significant risks related to safety and 
security that would have to be properly addressed at an international level with 
broad agreements addressing new safety and security regulations. 

  Risk – The absence of a global legal framework would open the development of 
bilateral  or  regional  agreements  addressing  the  liability  of  nuclear-powered 
vessels that could cause geopolitical tensions. The countries not benefiting directly 
from this activity or potentially suffering a related political disadvantage would be 
able to refuse nuclear-powered ships anchoring in their harbours and jurisdictional 
waters, but will not be able to take any measure against nuclear-powered vessels 
as they navigate international waters and connect foreign harbours. 

  Opportunity  –  Nuclear  powered  maritime  transport  brings  the  possibility  to 
renew and improve the sustainability of a currently very polluting activity, namely 
shipping, by significantly reducing its direct environmental impact. 

7 

 
4  Nuclear Technology Observatory 

In parallel to the Horizon Scanning exercise, a bibliographic data analysis was performed 
with the aim to complement the Horizon Scanning conclusions with additional valuable 
insights about technologic developments such as: 

  The relations amongst technologies, visualising how often they appear together in 

the same document. 

  The  maturity  of  the  related  research  by  observing  the  amount  of  scientific 

literature available on the technology as well as its evolution through time. 

  Their  "activeness",  as  defined  in  the  TIM  tool,  considering  the  number  of 
publications  on  the  technology released  over the last three years in relation to 
the total number of scientific publications for the technology. 

  The scientific institutions with more research publications on the technology. 
  The countries with more scientific action on the topic. 

For  a  more  extended  explanation  of  the  terms  and  parameters used for this analysis, 
please consult Annex 3. Bibliographic analysis tool and approach. 

As explained in the referenced annex, the graph visualisations presented in the following 
subchapters consist on: 

  A label or dataset title that summarises the meaning of the search query. 

  A  node  or  circle,  corresponding  to  each  label,  with  an  area  equivalent  to  the 

number of documents retrieved by the search query. 

  Several edges or relations corresponding to the number of documents retrieved 
simultaneously by two different searches that correspond to two different nodes. 

  A colour code identifying the groups of nodes that tend to have more documents 
in  common  among  each  other  according  to  the  so-called  Louvain  Modularity 
algorithm. 

Figure  2. Network graph  legend 

8 

 
 
 
 
 
4.1  Artificial Intelligence for nuclear applications 

Artificial  intelligence  refers  to  the  technologies  that  aim  to  incorporate  autonomous 
reasoning  to  machines.  It  goes  from  natural  language  processing  to  recognise  and 
interpret text and speech; machine learning algorithms that can be trained with available 
data  to  recognise  similarities  and  predict  trends;  and  the  more  sophisticated  deep 
learning used by AlphaGo to beat the world champion of the traditional Chinese board 
game Go. 

In  the  nuclear  sector,  artificial  intelligence  can  be used in the area of safeguards and 
surveillance, helping to filter and identify signatures of nuclear materials; likewise, it can 
be used for the monitoring and diagnosis of severe accidents or for the identification of 
nuclear power plant transients. 

The following two technologic applications related to artificial intelligence in the nuclear 
sector were identified as emerging trends: 

  AI for severe accidents, where 69% of the 13 related scientific publications were 

published in the last three years. 

  AI for nuclear safeguards, where 57% of the 8 related scientific publications were 

published in the last three years. 

The figure below (figure 3) shows other applications identified during the analysis ; all of 
them connected to the use of artificial intelligence in the nuclear industry. 

Node label: indicative title of 
the  subject  of  the  related 
search query. 

size: 

number 

Node 
of 
documents  retrieved  by  the 
search query. 

Node 
according 
Modularity algorithm. 

Colour: 
to 

Similarity 
the  Louvain 

Edge  thickness:  number  of 
retrieved 
documents 
simultaneously 
two 
by 
different search queries. 

Figure  3. TIM datasetgram centred on 'Nuclear  Power AI' 

The  following  query  was  used  to  extract  from  TIM  the  information  about  patents, 
conference  proceedings  and  scientific  articles  related  to  the  different  uses  of artificial 
intelligence in the nuclear power industry: 

topic:((nuclear  OR  atomic)  AND  (reactor  OR  plant)  AND  ("artificial 
intelligence" OR "machine learning" OR "deep learning" OR "natural language 
processing")) 

This query generated a dataset of 209 documents with an ‘activeness’ TIM indicator of 
40, meaning that 40% of those publications were published in the last three years. The 
historic distribution of those publications is shown in the figure below (figure 4). 

9 

 
 
Figure  4. 'Nuclear  Power AI'  dataset document type distribution 

There is a clear and very substantial leap in 2018 that will most probably continue during 
2019 as there will be more related documents published before the end of the year.  

The  number  of  patents,  on  the  other  hand,  remains  very  low,  probably  due  to  the 
patentability conditions of software tools. 

The  most  prolific  research  institutions  on  the  topic  are  one  Brazilian  (Universidade 
Federal do Rio de Janeiro), two Korean (Education Foundation of Yonsei University and 
the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) and two American (Purdue University and 
Oregon State University). 

Figure  5. 'Nuclear  Power AI'  dataset research output of leading  institutions 

According to the figure below (figure 6) the European Union seems to be relatively well 
positioned considering the number of publications, as it follows closely the leadership of 
the United States, with whom it shares a well stablished research partnership, although 
there is no European research institution amongst the five most prolific. 

10 

 
 
Node  label:  country  of origin 
of  the  documents  retrieved 
by the search query. 

size: 

number 

Node 
of 
documents  retrieved  by  the 
search query. 

Edge  thickness:  number  of 
documents with origin on two 
different countries. 

Figure  6. TIM network graph on 'Nuclear  Power AI' world publications  distribution 

On the other hand the following figure (figure 7) indicates that Brexit might have a very 
significant  (negative)  impact  on  the  expertise  of  the  Union  about  the  applications  of 
artificial intelligence for nuclear technology.  

Node  label:  country  of origin 
of  the  documents  retrieved 
by the search query. 

size: 

number 

Node 
of 
documents  retrieved  by  the 
search query. 

Figure  7. TIM network graph on 'Nuclear  Power AI' European  publications  distribution 

Edge  thickness:  number  of 
documents with origin on two 
different countries. 

11 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4.2  “Load following” impact on nuclear power 

“Load  following”  operation  refers  to  the  capacity  of  a  power  plant  to  adjust  its power 
output  to  satisfy  a  fluctuating  demand.  As  national  energy  strategies  tend  to 
progressively increase the share of renewable intermittent sources, there is a consequent 
need for a ‘load following’ solution that could fill the gap between production and demand 
when required. 

In principle, most of the currently operating nuclear power plants were designed to have 
strong manoeuvring capabilities, but operating at constant power level is simpler and less 
demanding on the plant’s equipment and fuel. Apart from that, not operating at full load 
has an important economic cost for the plant as it cannot make any sort of savings while 
not producing energy, not even on fuel costs. 

As can be deducted from the figure below (figure 8), load following is not only relevant to 
the energy grid but also to other applications that require power output adjustment such 
as  maritime  propulsion and some nuclear power space applications. The technology is 
also clearly related to co-generation as well as to heat and energy storage. 

Node label: indicative title of the subject of 
the related search query. 

Node  size:  number  of  documents  retrieved 
by the search query. 

Node  Colour:  Similarity  according  to  the 
Louvain Modularity algorithm. 

thickness:  number  of  documents 
Edge 
retrieved  simultaneously  by  two  different 
search queries. 

Figure  8. TIM datasetgram centred on 'Load following  nuclear  power' 

The  following  two  technology  applications  related  to  the  load  following  operation  of 
nuclear power plants were identified as emerging trends: 

  Lyapunov  Stability  Theory,  where  64% of the 14 related scientific publications 

were published in the last three years. 

  Load  follow  kinetics,  where  61%  of  the  13  related  scientific  publications  were 

published in the last three years. 

The key technologic feature for load following consists in having rapid and precise power 
distribution measurements of the core. An imbalance of axial power distribution induces 
xenon oscillations that have to be maintained within acceptable limits to avoid brin ging 
the reactor to an unstable state. That is where the study of the reactor kinetics and in 
particular  the  Lyapunov  approach  are bringing new insights and understanding to the 
subject. 

The  following  query  was  used  to  extract  the  information  about  patents,  conference 
proceedings  and  scientific  articles  related  to  load  following  with  nuclear  power plants 
from TIM: 

topic:((nuclear OR atomic) AND (energy OR power) AND (reactor OR plant) AND 
("load following" OR "load follow")) 

12 

 
 
This query generated a dataset of 224 documents with an ‘activeness’ TIM indicator of 
28, meaning that 28% of those publications were published in the last three years. The 
historic distribution of those publications is shown in the figure below (figure 9). 

Figure  9. 'Load following  nuclear  power' dataset document type distribution 

Although the growing trend is not as abrupt as in the case of the applications of artificial 
intelligence in the nuclear sector, a growth pattern can be recognised, with a clear peak 
since 2017. 

The most prolific research institutions on the topic are two Iranian (University of I sfahan 
and  Amirkabir  University  of  Technology),  two  Chinese  (Tsinghua  University  and  Xi'an 
Jiaotong University) and one American (Idaho National Laboratory). 

Figure  10. 'Load following  nuclear  power' dataset research output of leading  institutions 

Figure 11 shows that the European Union is behind the United States and China; and that 
there  are other important players such as Iran, South Korea or Japan sharing weak or 
non-existent links with the European Union. 

13 

 
 
 
Node  label:  country  of origin 
of  the  documents  retrieved 
by the search query. 

size: 

number 

Node 
of 
documents  retrieved  by  the 
search query. 

Edge  thickness:  number  of 
documents with origin on two 
different countries. 

Figure  11. TIM network graph  on 'Load following  nuclear  power' world publications  distribution 

According to figure 12, the United Kingdom seems to be a significant contributor to the 
European research activity on the topic, followed by France.  

In  France,  in  fact, as the national energy mix relies already heavily  on nuclear power, 
load following is used to respond to the daily and weekly energy demand fluctuations. 

Node  label:  country  of origin 
of  the  documents  retrieved 
by the search query. 

size: 

number 

Node 
of 
documents  retrieved  by  the 
search query. 

Figure  12. TIM network graph  on 'Load following  nuclear  power' European  publications  distribution 

Edge  thickness:  number  of 
documents with origin on two 
different countries. 

14 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4.3  Accident Tolerant Fuels 

The light-water reactor is the most commonly used type of reactor in nuclear electricity 
power generation. However, there are several other types of power reactors also allowing 
different  types  of  energy  production  and  application.  In  particular,  nuclear  reactors 
designed  for  working  at  very  high temperature are used for the production of process 
heat, which enables the possibility of heat co-generation and “load following”. Moreover, 
their low-pressure operation combined with high power density, offers great advantages 
for more compact and, eventually, more portable reactor designs.  

The following technology related to nuclear fuel in high temperature was identified as an 
emerging trend: 

  Accident Tolerant Fuel, where 56% of the 196 related scientific publications were 

published in the last three years. 

Since the accident of Fukushima in 2011, the research community started investigating 
alternative uranium-based fuel materials that, used in currently operating reactors, could 
withstand better such a severe accident scenario. They are named accident tolerant fuels 
(ATFs).  Part  of  this  research  consisted  in  the  study  of  the  reactor  products  of  these 
materials after being exposed to very high air or water temperatures. 

On the other hand, there are other nuclear fuel options such as the TRISO fuel, designed 
precisely  to  perform  best  under those very high temperatures (around 1.000ºC). In a 
molten salt reactor, for example, the TRISO particles of fuel float in the coolant salt to be 
brought  to  the  bottom  of  the  pebble  bed  of  the  reactor  or  removed  from  the  top  for 
recirculation. There have been molten salt reactors designed for very different purposes 
such as aircraft nuclear propulsion or breeding thorium into fissile uranium-233. 

The following figure (figure 13) shows that these different subjects are interconnected a s 
it represents the interrelations between the different research topics.  

Node  label:  indicative  title  of 
the  subject  of 
the  related 
search query. 

size: 

Node 
number 
documents  retrieved  by 
search query. 

of 
the 

Node 
according 
the 
Modularity algorithm. 

Colour: 
to 

Similarity 
Louvain 

thickness:  number  of 
Edge 
documents 
retrieved 
simultaneously by two different 
search queries. 

Figure  13. TIM datasetgram centred on 'High  temperature nuclear  fuel' 

The  following  query  was  used  to  extract  the  information  about  patents,  conference 
proceedings and academic articles related to nuclear fuel under high temperature from 
TIM: 

15 

 
 
 
 
 
topic:("high temperature" AND reactor AND "nuclear fuel") 

This query generated a dataset of 445 documents with an ‘activeness’ TIM indicator of 
18, meaning that 18% of those publications were published in the last three years. The 
historic distribution of those publications is shown in the figure below (figure 14). 

Figure  14. 'High  temperature nuclear  fuel'  dataset document type distribution 

As the ‘activeness’ TIM indicator already signals, this dataset shows the mildest growth 
pattern  of  the  three  promising  technologies  identified,  including  a  setback  on  2018. 
However,  looking  at  the  patents  data  it  is  important to consider the impact of the 18 
moths confidentiality phase applied in most patents.  

The most prolific research institutions on the topic are one Chinese (Tsinghua University), 
one Korean (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) and two American (Idaho National 
Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory). 

Figure  15. 'High  temperature nuclear  fuel'  dataset research output of leading  institutions 

16 

 
 
The geopolitical picture looks more complex for this topic, with many more players. Once 
more, the leader is the United States but in very strong collaboration with the European 
Union, that takes the second position. 

Node  label:  country  of  origin  of 
the  documents  retrieved  by  the 
search query. 

Node size: number of documents 
retrieved by the search query. 

thickness: 

Edge 
number  of 
documents  with  origin  on  two 
different countries. 

Figure  16. TIM network graph  on 'High  temperature nuclear  fuel'  world publications  distribution 

The picture inside Europe is also quite different, with less research in the United Kingdom 
than  for  the  previous  technologies  and  with  a  clear  French  leadership  in  strong 
collaboration  with Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and 
Czech Republic. 

Node  label:  country  of 
origin of the documents 
retrieved  by  the  search 
query. 

Node  size:  number  of 
documents  retrieved  by 
the search query. 

Edge  thickness:  number 
of 
documents  with 
origin  on  two  different 
countries. 

Figure  17. TIM network graph  on 'High  temperature nuclear  fuel'  European  publications 
distribution 

17 

 
 
 
 
 
 
5  Conclusions 

During 2019, the 14 Horizon Scanners from Dir G identified and recorded in Connected 
more than 200 ideas with an impact in the development of nuclear technology  that were 
then discussed during the three sense-making workshops organised in Petten, Geel and 
Karlsruhe. In the process, the following JRC tools were used: 

  Connected  for  the  registration  and  voting  of  the  new  ideas  as  well  as  for  the 

organisation of the sense-making workshops. 

  The  European  Media  Monitor  (EMM)  to  automatically  retrieve  news  about  new 

ideas and developments concerning nuclear technology. 

  The  Tools  for  Innovation  Monitoring  (TIM)  to  explore  the  characteristics  and 
relations  between  the  identified  technologies  analysing  the  related  scientific 
literature, patent data and data from R&D projects funded by the EU. 

This cross-site and cross Directorate activity has enabled the development of teamwork, 
collaboration and networking, increasing awareness of the work performed within Dir G 
amongst its participants and the possible future opportunities. 

The  topics  that  occupied  most  of  the  time  of  discussion  during  the  workshops  and 
focused the attention of the participating experts were: 

  Evidence-based energy strategy to tackle climate change. 

  The consequences of a stagnant nuclear policy. 

  Nuclear powered transport beyond Europe. 

On  the  other  hand,  the  bibliographic  data  analysis  made  in  TIM  suggests  that  the 
following technologies are expected to gain weigh significantly in the future: 

  Artificial Intelligence for nuclear applications. 

  Load following nuclear power. 

  Nuclear fuel under high temperature. 

This report contains a brief overview of these subjects as they were identified during the 
oversight activities carried out during the year. Follow up actions may include in-depth 
studies carried out under request addressing those among them that attract the interest 
of stakeholders and other parties. 

18 

6  Annexes 

6.1  Annex 1. Horizon Scanning participants 

6.1.1  List of appointed Horizon  Scanners from Dir G 

  HEYSE, Jan – JRC.G.2 (Geel) 

  CAMBRIANI,  Andrea – JRC.G.I.3 (Karlsruhe) 

  BRUMM,  Stephan  – JRC.G.I.4 (Petten) 

  GRIVEAU  Jean-Christophe  – JRC.G.I.5 (Karlsruhe) 

  RAUFF-NISTHAR,  Nadya – JRC.G.II.6 (Karlsruhe) 

  VERSINO,  Cristina – JRC.G.II.7 (Ispra) 

  ALVAREZ  SARANDES  LAVANDERA,  Rafael – JRC.G.III.8  (Karlsruhe) 

  HUBERT,  Philippe – JRC.G.III.9 (Ispra) 

  CIHLAR,  Milan – JRC.G.10 (Petten) 

  SIMIC,  Zdenko  – JRC.G.10 (Petten)  

  SIMOLA,  Kaisa – JRC.G.10 (Petten) 

  ROSSI, François – JRC.G.10 (Petten) 

6.1.2  List  of  Aggregators  contributing  to  the  Horizon  Scanning  for 

Nuclear Safety, Security & Safeguards 

  KRZYSZTOFOWICZ,  Maciej – JRC.I.2 (Brussels) 

  BONTOUX,  Laurent  – JRC.I.2 (Brussels) 

  LIESSENS,  Ariane – JRC.G.10 (Petten) 

  TANARRO  COLODRON,  Jorge – JRC.G.10 (Petten) 

6.1.3  List  of  other  contributors  to  the  Horizon  Scanning  sense-making 

sessions 

  WASTIN,  Franck – JRC.G.10 (Petten) 

  VAN KALLEVEEN,  Alexandra – JRC.G.10 (Karlsruhe) 

  MICHAILIDOU,  Eirini – JRC.G.10 (Karlsruhe)  

  COLLE,  Jean-Yves – JRC.G.I.3 (Karlsruhe) 

  BAUDOT,  Denis – JRC.G.III.8  (Karlsruhe) 

19 

  HELD, Andrea – JRC.F.7 (Geel) 

  MUNOZ  PINEIRO,  Amalia – JRC.F.7 (Geel) 

  JOANNY, Geraldine – JRC.I.3 (Brussels) 

  WILKENING,  heinz  – JRC.C.3 (Petten) 

  TSAKALIDIS,  Anastasios – JRC.C.4 (Ispra) 

  MARMIER,  Alain – JRC.C.7 (Petten) 

  BINET, Silvia – JRC.C.7 (Petten) 

  BOELMAN,  Elisa – JRC.C.7 (Petten) 

  LYONS,  Lorcan – JRC.C.7 (Petten) 

  CONTOR,  Laura  – JRC.C.7 (Petten) 

  TELSNIG,  Thomas  – JRC.C.7 (Petten) 

20 

 
6.2  Annex 2. Descriptions of clusters with associated risks and opportunities 

Recently,  voices  have  appeared  in  Europe  arguing  that  we  have  to  either  accept  more nuclear energy or suffer the climate change. 
Others, however, consider that technologies such as electricity storage, trans-European grids or negative emissions will make the nuclear 
option unnecessary. 

Nuclear energy back in the political agenda 

Risk  –  A potential political convergence on nuclear energy might 
create tensions between the EU members using nuclear energy and 
those who opted for excluding its use. 

Risk  -  A  political  confrontation  displayed as 'science war' among 
scientists supporting specific energy technologies could weaken the 
public trust in scientific institutions, ending up driven by the social 
with the consequent loss of trustworthiness and accountability. 

Opportunity - Europe can change and adapt its nuclear industry, 
reinventing its traditional business model and culture, in order to 
complement and reinforce its competitive and carbon free energy 
mix based on renewable sources. 

The globalisation of technological development causing environmental degradation/damage? 

While technological development is improving living conditions mostly in the western world, it has a high impact on the environment at 
global scale. As these developments become more affordable, their use and application increases their environmental impact. T his puts 
further pressure on the environment potentially widening inequalities for those who still cannot afford them. 

Risk  -  The  finite  nature  of  resources  poses  a  risk  of  conflict 
amongst societies and civilizations for their control and use. 

Risk  -  The  unequal  distribution  of  costs  and  efforts  invested  in 
mitigating  environmental  degradation  might  acquire  a  prevailing 
political significance in democratic societies that could lead to new 
tensions and confrontation between countries with different energy 
strategies, as well as to new diplomatic coalitions developed around 
this particular aspect. 

Opportunity  -  A  context  of  scarcity  might  enable  new 
opportunities  of  collaboration  and  integration,  seeking  to  align 
efforts in order to achieve better efficiencies 

21 

 
 
 
A complicated relation between the EU and China 

While  China  gradually  acquires  world  economic  power  and technological leadership, the EU seems to be losing its political inf luence 
outside and inside Europe and has to face greater interferences within its border.  

Risk – Dissension between democratic institutions and stability and 
leadership  of  more  authoritarian  regimes  might  lead  to  open  or 
latent conflicts. 

Risk – Development of antagonistic political options could escalate 
tensions, resulting in a large-scale conflict.  

Opportunity – The economic and technologic success of China and 
the  importance  and  complexity  of  its  implications  could  trigger 
European  Member  States  to  develop  a  more  efficient  common 
policy  to  defend  and  protect  European  values  and  interests  like 
freedom and democracy inside and also outside Europe. 

Climate change calls for non-ideological assessments of plans for energy mix 

An increasing number of scientists agree that the climate change is far more advanced than we like to think and that the urge ncy of the 
crisis does not allow us to take half measures. Scientists’ considerations should get a much stronger role in defining the measures that 
need to be taken to mitigate consequences of climate change. 

Risk  – Dichotomy between experts’ advice on the severity of the 
crisis  and  the  political  decisions  that  threaten  the  reciprocal 
coherency and public acceptance.  

Opportunity – Demonstrating stronger cohesion between scientific 
facts and policy making.  

Polarisation of public debate is preventing action on climate change 

Climate  change  is  a  hot  topic  nowadays,  but  both  opinions  on  the  severity  of  the  situation  and  the  responses  put  forward  are 
contradicting each other. There is no clear line, let alone a majority to take drastic action. 

Risk  –  Polarisation  feeds  the  extreme  opinions,  taking  away  the 
voice of the moderates. Furthermore, people with a more moderate 
opinion on the subject will stake back if the public debate polarises, 
thus worsening the situation. 

Opportunity – The public debate can change very fast with social 
media. It can therefore convey the message that any individual can 
make a difference by changing their lifestyle and talking about it in 
their  social  network.  But  also  any  big  company  or  institution, 

22 

 
 
 
 
whether private or public, can make a difference and bring about 
change by setting an example in taking drastic measures. 

The current policy cycle can't keep up with the rapidly changing world 

Societal and technological developments require legislation and regulations to be adapted in order to protect citi zens and tackle ethical 
questions. However, in our rapidly changing world these protection mechanisms take too long to be agreed upon, then developed  and put 
in place, whether it is at local, regional, national, European or international level. 

Risk – The rapidly changing world will increasingly become a "wild 
west"  as  the  strong  basis  given  by  the  state  institutions  is 
becoming less efficient, thus threatening the democratic process. 
An  example  in  nuclear  technology  is  the  development  of  micro-
reactors by private groups in the race for climate impact mitigation. 

Opportunity  –  There  are  more  possibilities  for  grassroots 
movements to be set up. The well-known examples of AirBNB and 
Uber have shown that there is a huge potential for these initiatives. 

Trust as the most precious political asset in a culture of fear  

While our trust in the administration, science and technology is challenged by cases of corruption, conflict of interests, un addressed real 
risks  and  vulnerabilities…  populistic  political  movements  in  Europe  can  exploit  fear  of  the  unknown  (the  migrants  and the changes 
brought by technical progress and globalisation, just to name few) to attract public attention and gain more support.  

Risk  -  Science,  technology  and  the  administration  becoming 
untrustworthy  in  the  eyes  of  the  citizen  will  boost  demagogic 
political practices in established democracies. 

Opportunity  -  Demagogic  politics  might  stimulate  the  state 
governance, the scientific institutions and the regulatory bodies to 
assume more transparency and accountability in a visible way. 

Risk  -  Democratic  societies  unable  to  trust  their  scientists, 
engineers  and  politicians  run  the  risk  of  becoming  averse  to 
technology  and  innovation  and  therefore  of  losing  power  and 
influence against authoritarian regimes eager to use them on their 
advantage. 

While the renewable energy industry in the EU thrives, benefiting from political and corporate support, crowd funding and a r elatively 

Nuclear business model getting small 

23 

 
 
newly acquired economy of scale; the traditional nuclear industry suffers from large capital costs, encouraging the establishment of new 
small and innovative (high risk) companies trying to resolve  persisting technical challenges 

Risk  –  In  order  to  carry  out  research  and  development  with 
radioactive materials, a great amount of regulations and standards 
need to be satisfied. Regulations and standards vary and depend on 
the  country,  making  this  kind  of  research  impossible  for  small 
companies with limited resources in many countries. 

Opportunity – Making broader use of common framework like the 
Euratom  could  facilitate  the  access  to  nuclear  laboratories  and 
nuclear materials to European (small and start-up) companies with 
innovative ideas in order to facilitate their viability and mitigate the 
associated potential risks. 

Risk  –  Small  'risky'  companies  managing  nuclear  installations 
entail  certain  safety  concerns  and  financial  risk  for  the  state, 
because if the company would become financially inviable and go 
bankrupt,  its  nuclear  installation  would  still  need  to  be  safely 
decommissioned,  what  usually  results  in  a  costly  effort  that  the 
state would have to assume. 

Digital new business models becoming 'physical' 

In the revolutionary business model of Google, the user is not anymore the 'client' , who has to pay for the cost of the service. The user 
actually becomes 'actor', 'contributor' and even the 'product' due to the value of the data produced and the attention invest ed while using 
the service. This same model might cross the boundaries of the digital world to deal with physical goods that could eventually save lives, 
or put them at risk. 

Risk  -  Services  advertised  as  'free  of  charge'  have  the  risk  of 
becoming 'free of accountability' making a malicious and harmful 
treatment/use of the users' data. 

Risk  -  Users  might  get  used  to  a  particular  free  service  in  a 
particular  country  without  realizing  that  the  usage  of  that  same 
service  while  travelling  in  a  different  country  might  entail 
completely different risks and implications due to a different legal 
framework. 

Opportunity  –  A  thorough  and  independent  regulation  of  the 
digital  business  model  could  open  new  opportunities  for private-
public cooperation, enabling innovative approaches of conventional 
public funded services while satisfying a new business demand for 
data coming from the private sector. 

Nuclear micro-reactors powering maritime transportation 

24 

 
 
While the shipping industry is struggling to reduce CO2 emissions, nuclear reactors seem to be getting smaller and safer. Put ting the two 
pieces together will certainly reduce the carbon footprint of maritime transportation, but it will also pose new challenges and risks related 
to nuclear safety and security. 

Risk  –  A  wide  application  of  nuclear  technology  in  powering 
commercial  maritime  transportation  would  imply  new  significant 
risks  related  to  safety  and  security  that  would  require  to  be 
addressed at an international level with adapted safety and security 
regulations. 

Risk - The need of international insurance schemes and regulations 
might  provoke  geopolitical  tensions  and  conflicts  between  the 
countries defending the assumption of the related risks and those 
who  will  not  benefit  directly  from  a  positive  economic  impact  or 
that will suffer nationally a political cost.  The lack of international 
agreement will restrict the technology to military uses.  

commercial  maritime 
Opportunity  –  Nuclear  powered 
transportation  brings  the  possibility  to  renew  and  improve  the 
sustainability  of  a  very  pollutant  activity,  shipping,  reducing 
dramatically its CO2 environmental impact. 

Governments and corporations knowing you better than you know yourself 

Corporations and governments might soon have enough understanding of our cognitive processes to be able to predict our choice s and 
'guide' or 'correct' them. For that, they just need to know us a little better than we know ourselves. 

Risk  –Authoritarian  regimes  might  find  out  how  to  acquire 
sustained public support through the use of these technologies. 

Opportunity  –  Potential  as  tools  for  education  and  self-
development at individual and societal levels. 

Risk  -  Private  corporations  might  use  these  technologies  for 
commercial interests leaving behind a deep cultural change always 
evolving towards more and more severe consumerism. 

Hardware hacking as weapon against energy infrastructure 

While measures are being implemented already to protect the energy grid against on-line hacking, hardware hacking taking place at the 
factory during the fabrication process could only be avoided with very disruptive measures t hat would require 'rewinding' globalisation 
and fabricating locally each electronic component. 

25 

 
 
 
Risk - The safety and security cost of energy infrastructures might 
increase  as  the  threats  that  they  could  be  exposed  to,  become 
more complex and sophisticated. 

Risk  -  Hardware  hacking  would  always  have  a  geopolitical 
component and be used by states against each other. 

could 

support  global 

Opportunity – Better control and accountability at an international 
level 
the 
interdependence  generated  by  globalization  might  end  up  in 
developing  a  global  culture  in  which  a  complex  industrial  plot 
orchestrated  by  a  particular  country  against  the  others would be 
literally unthinkable. 

regulations, 

trust  and 

Access to resources will put a brake on technological deployment 

Technological developments have been ever increasing in the history of humanity, resulting in an equally increasing use of res ources. 
However  many  of  the  resources  are  not  unlimited.  Their  increasing scarceness will make them more expensive and will hamper  the 
development and spreading of new technologies. 

Risk  –  Existing 
to  be 
implemented/spread  to  the extent that would benefit people and 
planet. 

technologies  will  not  be  able 

Risk  –  The  use  of  new  technologies  will  be  reserved  for  the rich 
elite. 

Opportunity – Rediscovering ancient means, methods and skills to 
achieve what today is brought to us by technology.  

Nuclear energy for climate change mitigation – change in public perception/ new nuclear technologies ; limitations of 
resources 

The major source of climate change is due to fossil fuels. To tackle this problem but also the limited amount of non-renewable resources, 
all  types  of  energy  with  less  impact  have  to  be  considered.  A  more  inclusive  view  and  understanding  of  the  potentials  of  nuclear 
technologies might lead to a change in public perception and acceptance, leading to a better and more adapted integration of  nuclear 
energy in the energy mix. 

Risk – Phasing out of the nuclear option is a long term no return 
choice as building the expertise needed is a long time process.  

Risk – New technologies take a long time to be developed, tested, 
regulated and implemented/spread. Additionally the sustainability 
of adequate raw materials and resources needs to be ensured.  

Opportunity – A thorough assessment of the role and applications 
of  nuclear  energy  in  the  energy  mix  stimulates  opportunities  for 
new  development  and  better  adaptability  of  (new  nuclear) 
technologies. 

26 

 
 
 
Global environmental change will soon threaten global population 

The last decade has witnessed an increasing number of climate-related disasters. Predictions foresees an increase in number and severity 
that could lead to substantial impact on the world population. 

Risk  –  A  major  disaster  caused  by  extreme  meteorological 
conditions, even localised at a regional level, could have a severe 
impact  on  economies  throughout  the  world  due  to  the  economic 
interdependence. Similarly, a major outbreak of a virus could result 
in either a pandemic or if just infecting a specific group/sector of 
the population could destabilise the existing balance in society. 

Opportunity – A major disaster affecting a big part of the world's 
population could activate all emergency mechanisms and speed up 
the process of working together to adapt to the new circumstances, 
thus  creating  public  support  for the drastic changes that are still 
slowed down a lot by the established culture and/or bureaucracy. 
Better  preparedness  and  anticipation  (lessons  learned)  are 
stimulated after a major accident of emergency has happened. 

27 

 
 
 
 
 
6.3  Annex 3. Bibliographic analysis tool and approach 

6.3.1  JRC Tools  for Innovation  Monitoring  (TIM) 

The JRC Tools for Innovation Monitoring (TIM) are used to explore the characteristics and 
relations  between the observed technologies analysing the related scientific literature, 
patent data and data from R&D projects funded by the EU. 

TIM produces visualisations of the data with edges and nodes (i.e., network graphs). I n 
this  case,  a graph is created with all the datasets  defined. These datasets are defined 
using a search query that should contain the intended keywords connected by Boolean 
operators for each of the technologies corresponding to the identified cluster. The graph 
visualisation of all the resulting dataset consists on: 

  A label or dataset title that summarises the meaning of the search query. 

  A  node  or  circle,  corresponding  to  each  label,  with  an  area  equivalent  to  the 

number of documents retrieved by the search query. 

  Several edges or relations corresponding to the number of documents retrieved 
simultaneously by two different searches that correspond to two different nodes. 

  A colour code identifying the groups of nodes that tend to have more documents 
in  common  among  each  other  according  to  the  so-called  Louvain  Modularity 
algorithm. 

Datasets  referring  to  the  different  technologies  can  be  compared  and  their  relations 
identified by analysing the resulting graph. This means that in order to study one specific 
technology  in  TIM,  it  is  necessary  to  create  first  its  related  dataset,  one  for  every 
technology. This series of datasets can be then visualised as a graph defining what in TIM 
receives the name of a 'datasetgram'. 

In  this  type  of  visualisation,  each  node  represents  a  dataset  related  to  each  of  the 
technologies. The colours identify the groups of nodes that tend to have more documents 
in  common  among  each other. These groups are detected using the so-called Louvain 
Modularity algorithm describe by Blondel et al in arXiv:0803.0476 [physics.soc-ph] 

In addition, TIM computes the so-called 'activeness' score for each of the datasets. The 
Activeness indicator returns the number of documents of a dataset (sign) in the three 
last years, divided by the total number of documents of the dataset. Thus, nodes with 
most of their hits falling in the last three years of the time range will get a score closer to 
100 and nodes with almost no hit in the last three years will get a score closer to 0. 

6.3.2  Approach 

Each  dataset  was  studied  separately  using  the  insights acquired  from TIM in order to 
identify promising technologies that are non-obvious or just recently identified but likely 
to gain significant weight in the future. 

Promising  new  technologies  can  be  found  in  small  nodes  linked  at  least with another 
couple of nodes. They must have an 'activeness' TIM indicator of above 50%. 

The  proposed  query  strings  for  the  datasets  were  reviewed  and,  when  necessary, 
corrected by experts from JRC.I.3. Their expert assessment and advice on the use of the 
JRC Tools for Innovation Monitoring (TIM) and the interpretation of its results was also 
taken into account for the preparation of the conclusions of this report. 

TIM provided us with the following information: 

  The "activeness" TIM index. 
  The number of connecting edges for each dataset. 
  The total number of documents retrieved for each dataset. 

28 

 
  The  charts  visualising  the  document  type  total  distribution  and  their  yearly 

distribution. 

  The time series containing the research output of the reference institutions.  

Regarding the time series containing the research output of the reference institutions, it 
is important to notice that it represents the number of documents authored by each of 
the  reference  institutions.  Therefore,  it  does  not  represent  the  total  number  of 
documents  because  there  might  be  other  institutions,  not  considered  "leading 
institution", producing documents; and the leading institutions considered might have co-
authored documents amongst them, so each of these documents would appear counted 
as many times as co-authoring reference institutions it has. 

It is also important to notice that TIM contains references up to August 2019, meaning 
that when comparing the number of documents retrieved for 2019 with previous years 
there might be a drop to be interpreted just as a drop in data coverage. 

29 

 
 
6.4  Annex 4. Methodology 

The Horizon Scanning for Nuclear Safety, Security & Safeguards as implemented at the 
JRC consists now of the following stages: 

6.4.1  Scanning 

Within the scanning phase, the scanners capture items/factual information coming from a 
large variety of sources. The items should be "raw" information (not necessarily analysed 
by someone else), reports on single developments, facts based and objective, concise, 
new  developments  and  from  many  apparently  unrelated  domains.  Just  "opinion s"  or 
"advices" are not considered relevant for the exercise. We are looking for what " can be" 
or "will be" not for what "should be" or "must be". 

The  sources  are  the  materials  or  media  providing  well identified "raw" information on 
novelties.  They  may  include  journals  providing  concise  news  reports  (e.g.  Nature), 
scientific  publications,  reports,  blogs,  newspapers,  magazines,  professional  journals, 
conference  proceedings,  trade  and  business  publications,  magazines  and  newspaper, 
social  media,  blogs  etc.  The  sources  may  also  include  already  existing  specialised 
scanning systems. For example, the Europe Media Monitor or shortly "EMM" is being used 
for finding relevant items about innovative developments on nuclear technology.  

The  items  found  within  the  scanning  process  are  stored  on  the  dedicated  site  of 
Connected.  Once  stored  on  Connected,  the  items  become  "ideas"  The  ideas  are 
established according the following principles: 

  An idea is created by choosing Create and Idea on the "Actions" menu or the box 

on the left of the screen. 

  The  new  idea  describing  the  item  must  have  a  clear  title,  a  brief  summary 
(maximum  ½  page),  a  short  explanation  about  its  importance,  the  date  of 
publication and the link to the source or attachment. 

  The idea can be classified under  one or more categories available in the edition 

screen, ticking at least the "nuclear" category. 

  The  idea  is  registered  after  clicking  the  button  "Publish"  at  the  bottom  of  the 

edition screen. 

Before  every  sense-making  workshop,  which  takes  place  several  times  a  year,  the 
aggregators select, prepare and format the ideas captured in Connected and provide the 
list to all participants in advance of the sense-making workshop. 

6.4.2  Sense-making workshop 

6.4.2.1  Preparation 

As  soon  as  the  date  for  the  sense-making  workshop  is  set,  an  event  is  created  in 
Connected including the instructions for the session. As soon as it is available, the list of 
ideas is attached. The link to the event is included in the email invitations and outlook 
calls. After the event, the pictures can be shared on the same page and the participants 
can  comment and record their feedback about the session so all related conversations 
remain centralised and easily accessible. 

About  two  weeks  before  the  workshop,  an  aggregator  responsible  for  managing  the 
workshop  session  (the  facilitator)  goes  through  the  ideas  collected on  Connected and 
selects those that will be of interest for the workshop: a total of 90 to 120 ideas. Each 
selected item is then edited and formatted in a coherent style, setting the "Stage" of the 
idea as "Delivered" (or an alternative empty stage in case "Delivered" is being used by 
another Horizon Scanning team). 

About a week before the workshop, the aggregator downloads the "Delivered" ideas from 
Connected  to  integrate  them  in a digital document that is submitted to the workshop 

30 

participants. The event created in Connected including the instructions for the session is 
updated with the list of ideas as attachment.  

Before the workshop, the participants must go through the list of ideas and t hink about 
how some of them would fit together suggesting an emerging trend or phenomena and 
gather  those  fitting  together  into  clusters.  They  should  write  down  the  names  and 
numbers  of the ideas clustered and give the cluster a title to be presented durin g the 
workshop session. 

The workshop is not a classification exercise, so there is no need to include all ideas in 
clusters. The aim of the workshop session is neither to criticise the abstracts nor to cover 
everything but to collect the concepts which indicate new trends and emerging issues. 
Each participant is expected to present around three clusters. 

6.4.2.2  Participation 

In the sense-making workshop, participants try to cluster different ideas together to see 
what emerging issues can be found. 

A cluster is a group of two or more ideas that can be linked in some way as a potential 
evidence  for  an  emerging  issue.  Emerging  issues  may  be  new  trends,  weak  signals, 
drivers  of  change,  or  discontinuities.  They  may  also  include  outlier  behaviour, 
unconventional  wisdom  or  new  technologies  that  could  indicate  future  changes  with 
potential  significant  impact  on  society  and  policy.  Usually,  the  emerging  issues  are 
developments at an early stage that had not been seriously considered yet. 

The participants usually tend to find clusters that confirm their previous ideas, which may 
not  be  a  problem.  However,  as  the  workshop  is  meant  to  be  an  open  and  creative 
exercise, the participants should not hold back, even if they may feel that the cluster is 
"unthinkable". 

The structure of the workshop is the following: 

1.  Clustering of ideas: Participants write down individually their own clusters (title, 

premise, and the numbers of the related ideas) on yellow post-its. 

2.  Presentation of clusters: Participants take turns to present their clust ers and put 

them on a board or wall. 

3.  Grouping  the  clusters:  The  participants  discuss  the  clusters  to  validate  their 
different  titles  and group the ones strongly related into wider or more accurate 
narratives recorded (title and numbers) on pink post-its. 

4.  Grouping the participants: The participants separate the groups of clusters on the 
wall into three or four sections. The participants can freely choose the section that 
they would like to work on and the organisers cover the topics of the least chosen 
ones. Each small group shall develop around three foresight stories related to the 
clusters available in their section. 

5.  Development  of  foresight  stories:  Grouped  in  small  groups,  the  participants 
present and explain their foresight stories. Everyone participates asking questions 
and  posing  comment  to  make  sure  the  story  is  well  understood.  After 
reformulating if needed, each final story is put to the wall in a pink post-it, aiming 
to capture a total of 9-12 stories. 

6.  Voting:  Each  participant  gets  three  votes  to vote for the three different stories 
that, according to them, are the most novel, likely to have the most impact, the 
most  controversial,  potentially  creates  tensions  or  could  lead  to  very  different 
outcomes. 

7.  Mapping: The stories with the most votes will be placed on a graph with 

Axis X: now – 5 years – 10 years 

Axis Y: Importance/ relevance for JRC policies 

31 

The  position  of  theses  top  stories  will  be  subject  to  discussion  until  the  group 
agrees. 

The other stories are put on the graph, without changing the position of the ones 
already  agreed  on.  Short  possibility  to  discuss/reposition  the  newly  added 
narratives if needed. 

8.  Final  capture:  Once  the  agreement  is  reached,  the  results  of  the  session  are 
recorded  in  pictures,  giving  special  attention  to  the  list  of  early  signs  and  the 
codes of the ideas related to each of them. 

Team  work  and  collaboration among the participants is especially relevant for refining 
and merging the clusters into stories (stage 3) and for mapping the stories (stage 6). 

6.4.3  Reporting 

The outcomes of each sense-making workshop are recorded in a document explaining the 
identified early signs and the prioritisation process, which is then uploaded to the  event 
about the workshop that was created in Connected.  

The nature of the exercise entails that these signs are neither predictions nor research 
conclusions; they are only indications or intuitive guesses made using a creative process 
of connecting the potential consequences of different recent developments.  

The  report  focuses  on  three  foresight  stories  developed  out  of  the  9  to 12 clusters of 
ideas  mapped  during  the  workshop,  identifying  the  related  possible  risks  and 
opportunities. 

32 

 
 
 
List of abbreviations and definitions 

ACE 

Dir G 

EMM 

EU 

HS 

JRC 

Aggregative Contingent Estimation 

Nuclear Safety and Security Directorate 

European Media Monitor 

European Union 

Horizon Scanning 

Joint Research Centre 

JRC.C.7  

Knowledge for the Energy Union unit 

JRC.E.7  

Knowledge for Security & Migration unit 

JRC.F.7  

Knowledge for Health & Consumer Safety unit 

JRC.G.10 

Knowledge for Nuclear Safety, Security and Safeguards unit 

JRC.I.2   

Foresight, Behavioural Insights & Design for Policy unit 

JRC.I.3   

Text and Data Mining unit 

R&D 

REFIT 

TIM 

Research and Development 

The regulatory fitness and performance programme 

JRC Tools for Innovation Monitoring 

33 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
List of figures 

Figure 1. Horizon Scanning three considered time horizons ....................................... 3 

Figure 2. Network graph legend ............................................................................. 8 

Figure 3. TIM datasetgram centred on 'Nuclear Power AI' .......................................... 9 

Figure 4. 'Nuclear Power AI' dataset document type distribution............................... 10 

Figure 5. 'Nuclear Power AI' dataset research output of leading institutions ............... 10 

Figure 6. TIM network graph on 'Nuclear Power AI' world publications distribution ...... 11 

Figure 7. TIM network graph on 'Nuclear Power AI' European publications distribution  11 

Figure 8. TIM datasetgram centred on 'Load following nuclear power' ....................... 12 

Figure 9. 'Load following nuclear power' dataset document type distribution .............. 13 

Figure 10. 'Load following nuclear power' dataset research output of leading institutions
 ......................................................................................................................... 13 

Figure 11. TIM network graph on 'Load following nuclear power' world publications 
distribution ......................................................................................................... 14 

Figure 12. TIM network graph on 'Load following nuclear power' European publications 
distribution ......................................................................................................... 14 

Figure 13. TIM datasetgram centred on 'High temperature nuclear fuel' .................... 15 

Figure 14. 'High temperature nuclear fuel' dataset document type distribution........... 16 

Figure 15. 'High temperature nuclear fuel' dataset research output of leading institutions
 ......................................................................................................................... 16 

Figure 16. TIM network graph on 'High temperature nuclear fuel' world publications 
distribution ......................................................................................................... 17 

Figure 17. TIM network graph on 'High temperature nuclear fuel' European publications 
distribution ......................................................................................................... 17 

34 

 
List of tables 

Table 1. Clusters of ideas and their time horizon (1st and 2nd sense-making 
workshops). .......................................................................................................... 4 

35 

 
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doi:10.2760/1105 

ISBN 978-92-76-17510-0