Employment and social developments in Europe : quarterly review. December 2019.
Date: 2020-01-20
Institutions: Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion
Subjects: EU Member State, EU employment policy, household income, labour market, long-term unemployment, macroeconomics, productivity, serial publication, social situation, unemployment, wage cost

iSSN 1977-8317

Employment and 
Social Developments 

in Europe

Quarterly Review 
December 2019

Social Europe

Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

December 2019 

With regularly updated data and charts downloadable here 

December 2019 I 1 

Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

The Employment and Social Developments Quarterly Review provides an in-depth description of recent 
labour market and social developments. It falls under the responsibility of the Directorate Employment 
and Social Governance of the Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion and is 
prepared by the Thematic Analysis Unit. The main contributors were F. De Franceschi, L. Moreau and 
L. Pappalardo.

A  wide  range  of  information  sources  have  been  used  to  produce  this  report,  including  Eurostat 
statistics1,  reports  and  survey  data  from  the  Commission’s  Directorate-General  for  Economic  and 
Financial Affairs.  

Charts and tables are based on the latest available data at the time of publication, and include Eurostat 
data on national accounts (employment and GDP) for the third quarter of 2019 (2019 Q3), Eurostat 
data  on  the  Labour  Force Survey  second  quarter  of  2019  (2019 Q2)  and  Eurostat  data  on  monthly 
unemployment concerning October 2019. Data on which the report is based are the latest available as 
of 5/12/2019. 

Regular updates of these data and charts are available at:  
http://ec.europa.eu/employment_social/employment_analysis/quarterly/quaterly_updated_charts.xl
sx  

More reports are available on the employment and social analysis portal: 
http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=113&langId=en  

Please send comments and questions to: EMPL-STATISTICAL-TEAM@ec.europa.eu 

Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission may be held 
responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this publication. 

More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). 

Cataloguing data as well as an abstract can be found at the end of this publication. 

LEGAL NOTICE 

Manuscript completed in December 2019 

Neither  the  European  Commission  nor  any  person  acting  on  behalf  of  the  European  Commission  is 
responsible  for  the  use  that  might  be  made  of  the  following  information.  More  information  on  the 
European Union is available on the Internet (http://www.europa.eu). 

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2019 

PDF   

ISSN 1977-8317  

KE-BH-19-003-EN-N 

© European Union, 2019 

Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. The reuse policy of European Commission 
documents  is  regulated  by  Decision  2011/833/EU  (OJ  L  330,  14.12.2011,  p.  39).  For  any  use  or 
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directly from the copyright holders. 

1

To access them, see [codes] mentioned under the charts, to be used with the Eurostat data search engine: 
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/home  

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I am happy to present the first quarterly review of my mandate. Since the record high unemployment 
rate of 2013, more than 17.4 people have found a job in the EU and employment has been growing 
for twenty-six consecutive quarters. There are now 241.5 million people in employment in the EU, of 
which  160.1  million  in  the  euro  area.  Permanent  jobs  and  self-employment  continue  to  grow  while 
temporary jobs are still declining. However,  I am aware that there is still a lot more work to do to 
address some of the issues laid bare by the crisis. This is why the new Commission’s task over the 
next five years will be to strengthen Europe’s social dimension and make sure that every EU citizen 
benefits from the economic recovery. 

Nicolas Schmit 
Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights 

December 2019 I 3 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Table of Contents 

Executive summary ................................................................................................................ 6 
1. Macroeconomic and employment developments and outlook .................................................. 10 
2. Employment in the EU and in Member States ....................................................................... 16 
3. Unemployment in the EU and in Member States ................................................................... 21 
4. Long-term unemployment and additional potential labour force .............................................. 25 
5. Income and financial situation of households ....................................................................... 31 
6. Productivity and labour costs ............................................................................................. 35 
7. Labour demand: vacancies, labour shortages and hiring activity ............................................. 39 
Annex ................................................................................................................................. 42 

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List of country codes 

EU Member States 

AT: Austria 

BE: Belgium 

BG: Bulgaria 

CY: Cyprus 

CZ: Czechia 

DE: Germany 

DK: Denmark 

EE: Estonia 

EL: Greece 

ES: Spain 

FI: Finland 

FR: France 

HR: Croatia 

HU: Hungary 

IE: Ireland 

IT: Italy 

LT: Lithuania 

LU: Luxembourg 

LV: Latvia 

MT: Malta 

NL: The Netherlands 

PL: Poland 

PT: Portugal 

RO: Romania 

SE: Sweden 

SI: Slovenia 

SK: Slovakia 

UK: United Kingdom 

Further afield: 

US: United States of America 

JP: Japan 

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Executive summary 

Economic conditions and outlook 

In the third quarter of 2019, the EU's economy continued its expansion, albeit at a moderate 
rate. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP increased by 0.3% in the EU and 0.2% in the euro 
area  and  all  Member  States  reported  positive  GDP  growth,  although  large  countries  such  as 
Germany and Italy only grew by 0.1%. The year-on-year growth rate in the third quarter of 2019 was 
1.4% in the EU and 1.2% in the euro area, confirming the growth moderation observed in the previous 
quarters.  Year-on-year  growth  rates  were  positive  in  all  Member  States,  with  robust  increases  in 
Ireland (6.0%), and Hungary (4.8%). 

Survey 
indicators  of  companies'  and  consumers’  employment  and  unemployment 
expectations point to further  signs of weakening. While employment in  the EU is expected to 
continue expanding in 2019 also because of current weak productivity growth, its pace of growth is 
expected  to  slow  down  in  the  coming  quarters  in  line  with  recent  trends  and  the  moderation  of 
economic growth. 

Employment 

Employment kept increasing in the third quarter of 2019, but its growth slowed down. The 
number of people employed rose by 0.1% over the previous quarter in both the EU and the euro area, 
whereas it grew by 0.8% in the EU and 0.9% in the euro area compared to the third quarter of 2018. 
This trend is in line with the Commission autumn 2019 forecast (1.0% increase on an annual basis). 

There are now 241.5 million people in employment in the EU, of which 160.1 million in the euro 
area - both new record levels. Employment has been growing for twenty-six consecutive quarters in 
the EU, since the low recorded in the first quarter of 2013. During the period, more than 17.4 million 
people  found  a  job,  including  11.4  million  in  the  euro  area.  Total  hours  worked  are  increasing 
more slowly but steadily since the first quarter of 2013 and have now slightly exceeded the 
peak of 2008. 

Employment  continued  to  increase  in  most  Member  States  when  compared  to  the  previous 
quarter,  but  fell  in  seven  of  them  and  notably  in  Croatia  (-1.6%).  When  compared  with  the  third 
quarter of 2018, it expanded in all Member States except for Latvia (-1.7%). 

The employment rate in the EU continued rising closer to the Europe 2020 target. It reached 
73.9% in the second quarter of 2019, 0.1pp more than in the previous quarter. The employment rate 
increased in almost all Member States, with the largest annual increases recorded in Bulgaria (2.8pp), 
Malta  (2.3pp)  and  Greece  (2.0pp).  Considerable  disparities  in  employment  rates  persist  among the 
Member States, as in the second quarter of 2019 there was a difference of more than 21pp between 
the highest employment rate (82.5% in Sweden) and the lowest (61.2% in Greece). Despite the rather 
positive recent performance, the combination of tight labour markets in some Member States and the 
slowdown  in  GDP  growth  might  also  reduce  the  rate  at  which  employment  will  grow  in  the  coming 
quarters. 

EU employment increased in all sectors but agriculture compared to the same quarter of the 
previous year. The service sector recorded the greatest rise in absolute terms, with 1.7 million 
more employed people, but in relative terms the construction sector is growing more (by 1.7%). 
Once more, industry experienced slow and declining growth (+0.5%). 

Permanent  jobs  continue  to  expand  while  temporary  jobs  are  still  declining  and  self-
employment is on the rise. In the second quarter of 2019, permanent jobs increased by 2.5 million 
compared with the same quarter of the previous year. The number of temporary employees fell in the 
same period by 900,000 people and the number of self-employed increased by 200,000. At the same 
time,  both  full-time  and  part-time  employment  grew:  the  number  of  full-time  workers  rose  by  1.6 
million on an annual basis, and part-time work increased by more 200,000 people. 

Unemployment 

The  unemployment  rate  in  the  EU  and  euro  area  remains  stable  at  low  record  levels.  In 
October  2019,  it  stayed  at  6.3%  and  7.5%,  respectively.  Compared  to  the  unemployment  rate 
recorded in the same month of the previous year, this represents a reduction of 0.4pp in the EU and 

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0.5pp in the euro area; relative to the peak levels recorded in 2013, the decrease amounts to 4.7pp 
and 4.6pp, respectively. Unemployment in the EU has receded by 11 million people since its 
peak observed in April 2013. In October 2019, there were 15.6 million unemployed in the EU, about 
1.0 million fewer than in the same month of the previous year. 

The  unemployment  rate  decreased  or  remained  stable  in  almost  all  Member  States 
compared  with  a  year  ago.  The  largest  reduction  was  registered  in  Greece  (-2.2pp)  and  the 
strongest  increase  in  Denmark  (0.4pp).  Important  differences  in  unemployment  remain  among 
Member States. The lowest rate was recorded in Czechia (2.2%) and the highest in Greece (16.7%). 

In October 2019, youth unemployment stood at 14.4% in the EU, 0.7pp lower than in the 
same month of the previous year. This represents 160,000 fewer unemployed people aged 15-24. 
The dynamics of youth unemployment have been quite different among Member States. The strongest 
decreases occurred in Estonia (8.7pp) and Greece (6.2pp) while the largest increases were recorded 
in Slovakia (2.8pp) and Hungary (2.6pp). Despite the declining trend, Greece is still the country with 
the highest youth unemployment rate (33.0%), followed by Spain (32.8%). 

Long and very long-term unemployment also continued declining. Long-term unemployment 
shrank by 0.5pp in the second quarter of 2019, compared with the same quarter of the previous year, 
representing 2.5% of the labour force. Long-term unemployment receded in all Member States with 
the exception of Luxembourg, where it increased by 0.1pp, and the UK, where it remained stable. The 
very long-term unemployment rate (which captures people in unemployment for at least two years) 
declined  by  0.3pp,  to  1.6%  of  the  labour  force.  The  share  of  long-term  unemployed  in  total 
unemployment is still high, around 41.8%. 

The share of young people neither in employment nor in education or training decreased in the 
EU to 10.2% in the second quarter of 2019, which is 0.2pp less than the same quarter of the previous 
year. This share differs significantly across the Member states, from 4.2% recorded in the Netherlands 
to 18.1% recorded in Italy. 

Productivity 

The growth of labour productivity, as measured by output per worker, is on the rise after 
the modest development in the past quarters both in the EU and euro area. In the third quarter 
of 2019, year-on-year productivity growth was at 0.8% in the EU as a whole and at 0.6% in the euro 
area.  However,  productivity  increase  made  a  smaller  contribution  to  economic  growth  than 
employment growth. 

Labour costs 

Following a brief decline in 2016, the nominal compensation per employee has been increasing 
since the first quarter of 2017. The year-on-year rate of growth registered in 2019 Q3 was 2.7% 
in the EU and 2.5% in the euro area. 

Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) and financial distress 

The financial situation of households continues to improve in the EU, and at a higher pace 
than  GDP.  The  real  per  capita  gross  disposable  income  of  households  has  been  rising  for  24 
consecutive quarters. In the first quarter of 2019 it was 1.8% higher than in the same quarter of 2018, 
and 7.3% above the level recorded in 2008 (same quarter). The pace of GDHI growth has been strong 
in  most  Member  States,  but  per  capita  GDHI  is  below  the  2008  average  level  in  Greece,  Italy  and 
Austria. The latter and Denmark recorded a decrease. 

However, the proportion of people who reported to be in financial distress showed a slight 
increase  compared  to  a  year  ago  (October  2018  /  2019).  This  indicator  presented  some 
deterioration in all the income quartiles, but this is more pronounced for the low incomes (+0.8pp).  

Labour demand 

The level of the unmet demand for labour, as expressed by the job vacancy rate, is still high, 
but its rise has been decelerating in the euro area and is stable year on year for the first time in the 
EU since 2014. In the third quarter of 2019, the vacancy rate stood at 2.3% both in the EU and the 
euro area, the highest levels registered since 2006. At the same time, the labour shortage indicator, 
a sentiment indicator in the manufacturing sector, decreased twice in 2019 (-3.2pp compared to the 

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same quarter of the previous year), standing at 16.7%, a value still well above pre-crisis levels. These 
developments  suggest  that  even  if  labour  markets  are  still  tight  in  most  Member  States,  labour 
shortages start shrinking, although remaining high. 

Stability  in  employment  and  exit  from  unemployment  are  high  probably  denoting  an 
important hiring activity at EU level. Comparing the status of the people aged 15-74 in the first 
quarter  of  2019  to  their  status  in  the  second  quarter  of  the  same  year,  96.7%  of  those  in 
unemployment remained in work, while 20.4% of the job-seekers found a job. 

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List of charts and tables 

Table 1: 

Recent forecasts – EU and euro area ...................................................................... 15 

Real GDP growth - EU, euro area and US, 2012-2019 .............................................. 10 
Chart 1: 
Real GDP growth – EU, euro area and Member States .............................................. 11 
Chart 2: 
Chart 3: 
Real GDP, GDHI and employment growth in the EU, 2012-2019 ................................ 12 
Chart 4:  GDP and hours worked (total and per employed person), 2012-2019 ......................... 12 
Unemployment rate - EU, euro area and US, 2012–2019 .......................................... 13 
Chart 5: 
Unemployment rate versus unemployment expectations – EU, 2012–2019 ................. 14 
Chart 6: 
Employment expectations by sectors – EU, 2012–2019 ............................................ 14 
Chart 7: 
Employment level – EU and euro area, 2012-2019 .................................................. 16 
Chart 8: 
Chart 9: 
Employment growth – EU, euro area and Member States ......................................... 17 
Chart 10:  Employment growth by sector – EU, 2012-2019 ...................................................... 18 
Chart 11:  Permanent, temporary and self-employment – EU, 2012-2019 .................................. 18 
Chart 12:  Part-time and full-time employment – EU, 2012-2019 .............................................. 19 
Chart 13:   Employment rate – EU, euro area and Member States .............................................. 20 
Chart 14:  Employment rate by population groups – EU ........................................................... 20 
Chart 15:  Unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate – EU and euro area, 2012–2019 .... 21 
Chart 16:  Unemployment rates – EU, euro area and Member States, 2018–2019 ....................... 22 
Chart 17:  Unemployment rates – EU, euro area and Member States, 2012-2019 ....................... 23 
Chart 18:  Change in unemployment rate by population groups – EU ........................................ 23 
Chart 19:  Youth unemployment rates – EU, euro area and Member States ................................ 24 
Chart 20:  Unemployment, long-term unemployment and very long-term unemployment rates in the 
EU, 2012-2019 ................................................................................................. 25 
Chart 21:  Unemployment by duration of unemployment in the EU, 2012-2019 .......................... 26 
Chart 22:  Long-term  unemployment  rate  -  EU,  euro  area  and  Member  States,  level  and  change, 
2018-2019 ....................................................................................................... 27 
Chart 23:  Activity rate – EU and Member States .................................................................... 28 
Chart 24:  Young people aged 15-24 neither in employment nor in education and training (NEET) – 
EU .................................................................................................................. 29 
Chart 25:  Unemployment, potential labour force and underemployment – EU, 2012-2019 .......... 30 
Chart 26:  Real GDHI per capita - EU and Euro Area (index 2008 = 100), 2012-2019.................. 31 
Chart 27:  Real GDHI per capita – EU, EA and Member States (index 2008 = 100) ..................... 32 
Chart 28:  Real GDP growth, real GDHI growth and its main components, 2012-2019 ................. 32 
Chart 29:  Reported financial distress by income quartile – EU, 2012-2019 ................................ 34 
Chart 30:  Reported financial distress in lowest income quartile – Member States ....................... 34 
Chart 31:  Real labour productivity growth – EU, euro area, US and JP, 2012-2019 ..................... 35 
Chart 32:  GDP, employment and labour productivity growth – EU, euro area and Member States  36 
Chart 33:  Growth in nominal labour compensation and its components – EU, euro area and Member 
States ............................................................................................................. 37 
Chart 34:  Growth in real unit labour cost – EU and Member States .......................................... 38 
Chart 35:  Job vacancy rates – EU, euro area and Member States ............................................. 39 
Chart 36:  Beveridge curve – EU, 2008-2019 ......................................................................... 40 
Chart 37:  Labour market transitions – EU, 2019Q2 ................................................................ 41 

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1. Macroeconomic and employment developments and 

outlook 

In the third quarter of 2019, compared to the previous one, real GDP increased by 0.3% in the EU and 
by 0.2% in the euro area, in line with the recent trend of slow growth. Year-on-year growth rates are 
stable at 1.4% in the EU and 1.2% in the euro area. In contrast, the US economy expanded at a faster 
pace, with real GDP increasing by 0.5% in the second quarter, bringing year-on-year growth to 2.1%. 

Real  GDP  in  the  EU  and  the  euro  area  now  exceeds  the  levels  of  Q1  of  2013,  the  time  when  the 
recovery started, by 13.7% and 12.4%, respectively. In comparison, the real GDP level in the US grew 
by a cumulative 16.8% over the same period (Chart 1). 

Chart 1:  Real GDP growth - EU, euro area and US, 2012-2019 

index 2012=100

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

EA19

EU28

US

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts, seasonally and calendar adjusted data [namq_10_gdp, naidq_10_gdp] 
Click here to download chart. 

All Member States report positive GDP growth 

In  the  third  quarter  of  2019,  GDP  grew  in  all  Member  States  compared  to  the  previous  quarter, 
although  to  a  very  limited  extent  for  large  countries  such  as  Germany  and  Italy  (+0.1%).  The  EU 
countries with the fastest-growing GDP were Luxembourg (+2.4%, Q2), Poland and Malta (+1.3%, 
Q2  for  Malta).  Year-on-year  growth  was  positive  in  all  Member  States,  with  Ireland  recording  the 
highest growth (+6.0%) and Italy the lowest one (+0.3%) (see Chart 2). 

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Chart 2:  Real GDP growth – EU, euro area and Member States 

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on previous quarter

on previous year

2019Q3

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Source: Eurostat, National Accounts, seasonally and calendar adjusted data [namq_10_gdp] 
Note: Data for SK are seasonally and not calendar adjusted. 2019Q2 data for LU, MT, BG, CY, EL, IE, SK and HR. 
Click here to download chart. 

The slowdown in economic growth is also reflected in employment and household incomes  

Gross disposable household income (GDHI) in the EU 2 registered a 2.1% year-on-year increase in real 
terms in the second quarter of 2019 (Chart 3). This is slightly higher than the yearly growth rates of 
GDP (+1.3%) and employment (+0.8%) in the same quarter. However, the pace of increase is 0.3pp 
lower than what reported in the first quarter of the year, suggesting that the current slowdown in GDP 
growth is affecting also GDHI growth. 

The economic recovery and expansion have not been rich in working hours 

In the second quarter of 2019, the working time per worker surpassed 408 hours per worker in the 
EU and 393 in the euro area. Total hours worked are gradually increasing since the first quarter of 
2013, and now exceed the peak of 2008. Hours worked per person, however, remain stagnant and 
slightly  below  the  level  in  2012.  This  is  explained  by  a  sharp  drop  in  hours  per  worked  per  person 
during the crisis, which has not been accompanied by a strong increase during the recovery. Beyond 
part-time  work,  this  can  be  attributed  to  changes  in  the  breakdown  of  employment  by  sector  of 
economic activity (Chart 4). 

2 The real GDHI growth for the EU is an estimation by DG EMPL, and it includes Member States for which quarterly data are available 
(19 Member States: AT, BE, CZ, DE, DK, EL, ES, FI, FR, HR, IE, IT, NL, PL, PT, RO, SE, SI, UK, which account for at least 90% of 
EU GDHI). The nominal GDHI is converted into real GDHI by deflating with the deflator (price index) of household final consumption 
expenditure. The real GDHI growth for the EU is a weighted average of real GDHI growth in Member States. 

December 2019 I 11 

 
 
 
                                                
 
 
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Chart 3:  Real GDP, GDHI and employment growth in the EU, 2012-2019 

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GDP
Employment
GDHI

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts, unadjusted data [namq_10_gdp, namq_10_pe, nasq_10_nf_tr] (DG EMPL 
calculations for GDHI) 
Note: GDHI EU aggregate for Member States for which data are available, GDP for EU28 
Click here to download chart. 

Chart 4:  GDP and hours worked (total and per employed person), 2012-2019 

GDP
Hours worked per person
Total hours worked

EU28 

1
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2
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115

110

105

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95

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts [namq_10_gdp, namq_10_a10_e, namq_10_pe], seasonally and calendar 
adjusted data 

Unemployment remains stable 

In October 2019, the EU and euro area unemployment rates remained stable and stood at 6.3% and 
7.5%, respectively, down from 6.7% and 8.0% in October 2018. By comparison, the unemployment 
rate in the US reached 3.6% in October 2019 from 3.8% a year earlier (Chart 5). 

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Chart 5:  Unemployment rate - EU, euro area and US, 2012–2019 

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2012

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2019

Source: Eurostat, series on unemployment, seasonally adjusted data [une_rt_m]  
Click here to download chart. 

Economic sentiment and employment outlook have slipped after a recent peak 

Unemployment expectations, measured within the EU Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) 3, have 
boosted since mid-2018, marking a weakening of the outlook that has not been so far accompanied 
by an increase in unemployment rates (Chart 6). In 2019, the employment expectations component 
of BCS diverged across sectors, with a decline for industry and construction, and stagnation for retail 
sale and services (Chart 7). 

3 https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/indicators-statistics/economic-databases/business-and-consumer-
surveys/download-business-and-consumer-survey-data/time-series_en 

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Chart 6:  Unemployment rate versus unemployment expectations – EU, 2012–2019 

% of active population

Unemployment rate (lhs)

Unemployment expectations (rhs)

balance  %

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: European Commission, Business and Consumer Surveys and Eurostat, LFS, seasonally adjusted data 
[ei_bsco_m, une_rt_m] 
Note: the right scale is the balance of the share of respondents who expect higher unemployment and those who 
expect a lower one 
Click here to download chart. 

Chart 7:  Employment expectations by sectors – EU, 2012–2019 

%

e
c
n
a
a
b

l

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0

-10.0

-20.0

-30.0

Retail sale

Services

Industry

Construction

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: European Commission, Business and Consumer Surveys [ei_bsrt_m_r2, ei_bsse_m_r2, ei_bsin_m_r2, 
ei_bsbu_m_r2], seasonally adjusted data, moving averages 
Click here to download chart. 

December 2019 I 14 

 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

The outlook for jobs in the EU weakens but remains positive, as global economic conditions 
and labour shortages constitute constraints  

The November 2019 Economic Forecast by the European Commission4 confirms previous expectations 
of a moderation in economic growth in the EU, in line with a weakening global growth amid downside 
risks. The more moderate pace of economic growth is expected to reduce further improvements in the 
labour market situation, but overall the situation is considered solid. Improvements are put at risk by 
the continued weakness in manufacturing, while services remain more stable. The latest development 
of survey indicators seems to suggest that the outlook may be worsening further. Compared to the 
previous  labour  market  forecasts  (Spring  2019),  the  Commission  expects  a  stronger  employment 
growth for 2019 (+1.0%) but sluggish growth in 2020 and 2021. Unemployment is predicted to remain 
stable with potential for some reductions especially in the euro area (Table 1). 

Table 1:  Recent forecasts – EU and euro area 

EU

C ommission

IMF

euro area

C ommission

OEC D

EC B

IMF

GDP growth

Unemployment rate

Employment growth

2019

2020

2021

2019

2020

2021

2019

2020

2021

Jul-19

May-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

May-19

May-19

Jun-19

Apr-19

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.5

:

:

1.7

:

:

:

1.4

1.5

:

6.5

:

:

7.7

7.9

7.7

8.0

:

6.2

:

:

7.3

7.7

7.5

7.7

:

:

:

:

:

7.3

7.6

:

0.8

:

:

0.9

1.1

1.0

0.6

:

0.7

:

:

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.6

:

:

:

:

:

0.6

:

Source: European Commission November 2019 and May 2019, IMF October 2019, OECD October 2019, ECB 
September 2019. 
Note: ':' information not available. See full table (link below) for the exact links to sources. 
Click here to download table. 

4 https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/autumn-2019-
economic-forecast-challenging-road-ahead_en 

December 2019 I 15 

 
 
 
 
                                                
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

2. Employment in the EU and in Member States  

Employment keeps growing in the EU at a low pace 

Employment  kept  growing  in  the  third  quarter  of  2019,  although  by  only  0.1%  over  the  previous 
quarter  in  both  the  EU  and  the  euro  area.  Compared  to  the  third  quarter  of  2018,  employment 
expanded by 0.8% in the EU and 0.9% the euro area. This result is broadly in line with forecasts for 
2019, which predicted a reduction in the employment growth rate. 

Since the low point registered in the first quarter of 2013, employment has been growing for twenty-
six consecutive quarters in the EU. Since then, and up to the third quarter of 2019, employment has 
increased by 17.4 million people (including 11.4 million in the euro area). In the third quarter of 2019, 
employment in the EU reached a new record level with 241.5 million people in employment, of which 
160.1 million in the euro area (Chart 8). 

Chart 8:  Employment level – EU and euro area, 2012-2019 

EU28

EU28

EA19

EA19

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

index 2012=100

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts, seasonally and calendar adjusted data [namq_10_pe] 
Note: Cumulative growth (right), % change on the previous quarter (left) 
Click here to download chart. 

Employment expands in most Member States but is declining in others 

In the third quarter of 2019, employment continued to increase in most of the Member States when 
compared to the  previous  quarter,  although  it is  declining  in  seven  of  them.  Employment  grew  the 
most in Malta (1.9%), Estonia and Latvia (1.0%), and registered the strongest decreases in Croatia (-
1.6%) and Latvia (-1.2%) (Chart 9). 

Compared to the third quarter of 2018, employment was higher in most Member States except in four 
of them. Growth was again especially strong in Malta (6.2%), Luxembourg (3.8%) and Cyprus (3.0%), 
while the largest decrease was reported in Latvia (-1.7%). 

December 2019 I 16 

 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Chart 9:  Employment growth – EU, euro area and Member States 

e
g
n
a
h
c
%

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

2019Q3

on previous quarter

on previous year

8
2
U
E

9
1
A
E

T
M

E
E

V
L

U
L

Y
C

L
E

I
S

E
B

K
D

T
P

U
H

L
N

K
S

T
A

R
F

E
S

O
R

S
E

E
D

T
I

G
B

K
U

Z
C

L
P

I
F

E
I

T
L

R
H

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts, seasonally and calendar adjusted (q-o-q) and unadjusted (y-o-y) data 
[namq_10_pe]  
Note: Seasonal (no calendar) adjustment for q-on-q change, and /or 2019Q2 for several countries. 
Click here to download chart. 

Employment growth in the service sector slows down, construction is picking up 

In the third quarter of 2019, EU employment increased in all sectors but agriculture compared to the 
same quarter of the previous year. The service sector recorded as usual the greatest rise in absolute 
terms, with 447,000 more employed people in wholesale trade and 1.3 million more employed people 
in  other  services.  However,  the  increases  of  employment  in  the  service  sector  have  been  declining 
since the third quarter of 2018. 

Employment  in  industry  is  coming  almost  to  a  halt,  with  an  increase  of  168,000  employed  people 
(+0.5%). Construction grew by 260,000 people, the highest growth in relative terms (+1.7% on a 
yearly basis). Employment in agriculture declined by 184,000 people on a yearly basis, in line with a 
long-standing negative trend. 

Permanent jobs keep driving employment expansion, temporary jobs still decreasing while 
self-employment picks up 

The growth in employment in the second quarter of 2019 was driven again by a strong increase in the 
number of permanent employees (about 2.5 million compared with the same quarter of the previous 
year). After a long decline that started in 2015, the number of self-employed started increasing again 
at the end of 2018 and in the second quarter of 2019 recorded a year-to-year increase of 200,000 
people. The number of temporary employees keeps falling (900,000 people less than in the second 
quarter of 2018), slowing down the overall growth of employment (Chart 11). 

December 2019 I 17 

 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Chart 10: Employment growth by sector – EU, 2012-2019 

4

2

0

-2

-4

r
a
e
y

s
u
o
i
v
e
r
p
e
h
t

f
o
r
e
t
r
a
u
q
e
m
a
s

e
h
t
h
t
i

w
e
c
m
e
r
e
f
f
i
D

l

)
e
p
o
e
p
f
o

s
n
o

i
l
l
i

m

(

Agriculture (4%)

Industry (15%)

Construction (7%)

Wholesale (25%)

Other services (49%)

Total

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts, unadjusted data [namq_10_a10_e] 
Note: Figures in brackets in the legend indicate the sector's share of employment in the EU economy. The 
Statistical Annex presents in detail the changes in employment by sector and Member State. 
Click here to download chart. 

Chart 11: Permanent, temporary and self-employment – EU, 2012-2019 

Temporary employees

Permanent employees

Self employment

Overall

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

r
a
e
y

s
u
o
i
v
e
r
p
f
o
r
e
t
r
a
u
q
e
m
a
s
h
t
i

w
e
c
n
e
r
e
f
f
i
D

l

)
e
p
o
e
p

n
o

i
l
l
i

m

(

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Eurostat, LFS, unadjusted data [lfsq_egaps, lfsq_etgaed] 
Note: Age 15-64.  
Click here to download chart. 

December 2019 I 18 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Both full-time and part-time employment on the rise 

In the second quarter of 2019 full-time employment increased by 1.6 million people compared with 
the same quarter of the previous year. Part-time employment increased by more than 200,000 people 
on a yearly basis .(Chart 12). 

Chart 12: Part-time and full-time employment – EU, 2012-2019 

)
n
o

i
l
l
i

m

(

r
a
e
y

s
u
o
i
v
e
r
p
h
t
i

w
e
c
n
e
r
e
f
f
i
D

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

Full-time employed

Part-time employed

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Eurostat, LFS, unadjusted data [lfsq_eftpt]  
Note: age 15-64 
Click here to download chart. 

The employment rate increases in most Member States and the EU and comes close to the 
Europe 2020 target 

The EU employment rate for 20-64 year-olds increased continuously in the last years, and reached 
73.9%  in  the  second  quarter  of  2019.  The  quarter-to-quarter  increase  amounted  to  0.1pp  and  the 
year-on-year increase since the first quarter of 2018 was 0.8pp, thus marking a slowdown compared 
to the first quarter of 2019. Although the Europe 2020 target of 75% seems reachable, the most recent 
Commission forecasts (see table 1 in the previous section) point to a slowdown in employment creation 
for  the  coming  quarters  and  suggest  that  the  employment  rate  might  then  come  close  but  slightly 
below the target. For the euro area, the employment rate increased by 0.8pp since the second quarter 
of 2018, and reached 72.7% (see Chart 13). 

Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, in the second quarter of 2019 the employment 
rate for 20-64 year-olds increased in all Member States except Estonia (-0.2pp) and Denmark (-0.1pp). 
The largest annual increases were recorded in Bulgaria (3.8pp), Malta (2.3pp) and Greece (2.0pp). 

Despite the rather positive performance in the last quarters, it is unclear whether this pace of growth 
can be maintained, due to the combination of tight labour market in some Member States (Sweden, 
Germany, Czech Republic for example) and persistent lack of growth in others  with employment rates 
below the EU average, such as Italy and France. Large differences across Member States remain. In 
the  first  quarter  of  2019,  there  was  a  difference  of  21.3pp  between  the  highest  employment  rate, 
82.5% in Sweden, and the lowest, 61.2% in Greece, where the employment rate went above 60% for 
the first time since mid-2011 in the last quarter of 2018. 

December 2019 I 19 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Chart 13:  Employment rate – EU, euro area and Member States 

85

2019Q2

4
6
-
0
2

l

n
o
i
t
a
u
p
o
p
f
o
%

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

Employment Rate 2019Q2

Employment Rate 2018Q2

National target

EU Target

8
2
U
E

9
1
A
E

E
S

E
D

Z
C

L
N

E
E

K
U

T
L

K
D

T
M

V F
L

I

I
S

T
A

Y
C

T
P

U
H

G I
E
B

K
S

L
P

U
L

R
F

E
B

O
R

S
E

R
H

T
I

L
E

Source: Eurostat, LFS, seasonally adjusted data [lfsi_emp_q] 
Note: age 20-64 
Click here to download chart. 

Employment rates improve across all population groups and particularly for older workers 

In the second quarter of 2019 the EU employment rate increased on a yearly basis for all population 
groups, and again most noticeably for people aged 60-64 (1.6pp). This evolution reinforces the trend 
observed  over  the  past  few  years  where  employment  expanded  strongly  among  workers  above  55 
years. The employment rate grew faster for women (0.6pp year-to-year) than for men (0.8pp year-
to-year). The employment gender gap was 11.3%, 0.9pp less than in 2018 Q2. The employment rate 
also increased for all education levels (Chart 14). 

Chart 14: Employment rate by population groups – EU 

Employment rate (%)

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

1.2

0.8

4
2
-
0
2

9
2
-
5
2

0.3

4
3
-
0
3

0.2

9
1
-
5
1

1.7

1.1

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.5

9
3
-
5
3

4
4
-
0
4

9
4
-
5
4

4
5
-
0
5

9
5
-
5
5

4
6
-
0
6

9
6
-
5
6

Age

0.2

4
7
-
0
7

0.7

0.8

n
e
M

n
e
m
o
W

0.5

0.5

0.6

w
o
L

h
g
H

i

i

m
u
d
e
M

Gender (20-64) Education level (25-

64)

2019Q2

2012Q2

2018Q2

2019Q2

change 2018Q2-2019Q2

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Year-on-year change (pp)

Source: Eurostat, LFS, unadjusted data [lfsq_ergaed]  
Note: Age groups: by gender 20-64, by educational level 25-64 
Click here to download chart. 

December 2019 I 20 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

3. Unemployment in the EU and in Member States 

Unemployment rates are stable at record-low levels in the EU 

In October 2019, the unemployment rate in the EU and euro area were 6.3% and 7.5%, down 0.4pp 
and  0.5pp  from  the  respective  levels  recorded  in  October  2018.  These  rates  represent  the  lowest 
recorded in the EU since the start of the series by Eurostat in January 2000, and the lowest in the euro 
area since May 2008. The decline in EU and euro area unemployment rates means that they are now 
respectively 4.7pp and 4.6pp lower than the highest levels recorded in 2013 (Chart 15). 

However, the rate for EU has now remained stable for six months and has declined only 0.2pp since 
January, with similar trends in the euro area. This  suggests that, with a slowdown in the economic 
activity  (see  forecasts  in  section  1),  further  progress  in  the  coming  months,  if  any,  is  likely  to  be 
limited. 

In October 2019, 15.6 million people were unemployed in the EU, about 1.0 million fewer unemployed 
people since the same month in 2018. Unemployment in the EU has receded by 11 million people since 
its peak observed in April 2013. In the euro area, the number of unemployed people was 12.3 million, 
7 million less than the highest value recorded in April 2013. 

Chart 15: Unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate – EU and euro area, 2012–

2019 

EU28 - Total

EA -Total

EU28 - Youth

30

25

20

15

10

5

l

n
o
i
t
a
u
p
o
p

e
v
i
t
c
a

e
v
i
t
c
e
p
s
e
r

f
o
%

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

v
o
N

n
a
J

r
a
M

y
a
M

l

u
J

p
e
S

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Eurostat, series on unemployment, seasonally adjusted data [une_rt_m] 
Click here to download chart. 

December 2019 I 21 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

The unemployment rate declines in almost all Member States … 

In October 2019, compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate decreased in almost all Member 
States,  with  the  exceptions  of  Denmark  (0.4pp),  Lithuania  (0.3pp),  Sweden  (0.3pp)  and  Czechia 
(0.1pp). Greece registered the largest reduction by 2.2pp but has still the highest unemployment rate 
in the EU (16.7%, August data) (Chart 16 and  Chart 17). Large differences in unemployment rates 
remain  among  Member  States.  The  lowest  rates  were  recorded  in  Czechia  (2.2%)  and  Germany 
(3.1%). By comparison, Greece (see above) and Spain (14.2%) are the only Member States with an 
unemployment rate over 10%, with Italy slightly below (9.7%) (Chart 16). 

Chart 16: Unemployment rates – EU, euro area and Member States, 2018–2019 

% of active population

October 2019

October 2018

20

15

10

5

0

EU28 EA19 CZ

DE

PL MT NL HU UK

RO BG

SI

EE

AT

IE

DK

LU

BE

SK

LV

LT

PT

SE

HR

FI

CY

FR

IT

ES

EL

Source: Eurostat, series on unemployment, seasonally adjusted data [une_rt_m]  
Note: HU and EE data from September 2018/2019; EL and UK data from August 2018/2019 
Click here to download chart. 

December 2019 I 22 

 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Chart 17: Unemployment rates – EU, euro area and Member States, 2012-2019 

l

n
o
i
t
a
u
p
o
p

e
v
i
t
c
a
f
o
%

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Highest since 2012

Lowest since 2012

October 2019

8
2
U
E

9
1
A
E

Z
C

E
D

L
P

T
M

L
N

U
H

K
U

O
R

I

G S
B

E
E

T
A

E
I

K
D

U
L

E
B

K
S

V
L

T
L

T
P

E
S

I

R F
H

Y
C

R
F

T
I

S
E

L
E

Source: Eurostat, series on unemployment, seasonally adjusted data [une_rt_m] 
Note: HU and EE data from September 2018/2019; EL and UK data from August 2018/2019 
Click here to download chart. 

… and also for different age groups, men and women 

In October 2019, compared to the same month of the previous year, the unemployment rate in the 
EU decreased for all age  groups. For those aged 25-74, the unemployment rate in the  EU declined 
slightly more slowly by 0.3pp, down to 5.5%. The unemployment rate also fell by 0.4pp on a year-to-
year basis for men and 0.3pp for women, down to 6.1% for men and 6.6% for women. (Chart 18). 

Chart 18: Change in unemployment rate by population groups – EU 

Difference October 2018 - October 2019

difference (pps)

Difference October 2012 - October 2019
-6
-2

-10

-8

-4

0

e
g
A

r
e
d
n
e
G

Young (15-24)

Others (25-74)

Men

Women

Source: Eurostat, series on unemployment and LFS, seasonally adjusted data [une_rt_m] 
Click here to download chart. 

December 2019 I 23 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

EU youth unemployment keeps declining in the EU and in most Member States 

In October 2019, the unemployment rate of people aged 15-24 (youth unemployment) stood at 14.4% 
in the EU, down by 0.7pp compared to the same month of 2018. In the euro area, it declined by 1.1pp 
to reach 15.6%. These declines represent 160,000 fewer unemployed people aged 15-24 in the EU, 
including 147,000 in the euro area. In October 2019, there were 3.2 million young people unemployed, 
including 2.3 million in the euro area. 

As for total unemployment, the most recent trends suggest a stabilisation in  youth unemployment, 
with very different dynamics according to Member States. A year-on-year increase5 occurred in nine 
Member States. The highest increases were recorded in Slovakia (2.8pp), Hungary (2.6pp), Denmark 
and Lithuania (0.7pp). The decrease was the strongest  in Estonia (-8.7pp), Greece (-6.2pp) and Italy 
(-4.9pp).  The  youth  unemployment  rate  in  Greece  is  still  the  highest  in  the  EU  (33.1%),  but  is 
approaching those of Spain (32.8%) and Italy (27.8%). By contrast, the lowest youth unemployment 
rates are recorded in Czechia (5.5%), Germany (5.8%) and the Netherlands (7.3%) (see Chart 22). 

Chart 19: Youth unemployment rates – EU, euro area and Member States 

% of active population

October 2019

October 2018

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

EU28 EA19 CZ

DE

NL

SI

AT

BG MT

PL

LV

EE

DK

LT

UK

IE

HU LU

BE

SK

RO CY

FI

PT

HR

FR

SE

IT

ES

EL

Source: Eurostat, LFS, seasonally adjusted data [une_rt_m] 
Note: EL and RO data from June 2019; UK data from August 2019; CY, SI, HU, EE, BE and HR data from 
September 2019 
Click here to download chart. 

5 Refer to Chart 22 for the exact month of comparison 

December 2019 I 24 

 
 
 
 
                                                
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

4. Long-term unemployment and additional potential 

labour force  

Long and very long-term unemployment continues decreasing 

Long-term unemployment, which captures people in unemployment for a year or more, decreased by 
0.5pp in the second quarter of 2019, compared with the same quarter of the previous year. The rate 
went  down  to  2.5%  following  a  constant  decrease  that  has  lasted  since  the  first  quarter  of  2014 
(Chart 20).  At  the  same  time,  the  very  long-term  unemployment  rate  (which  captures  people  in 
unemployment for at least two years) decreased by 0.3pp, down to 1.6% of the labour force but still 
0.2pp higher than the rate observed at the end of 2008. 

In the second quarter of 2019, there were around 6.2 million people in unemployment for more than 
a year in the EU, of whom 3.8 million for more than two years. This represents 1.1 million fewer people 
in long-term unemployment than in the second quarter of 2018, as well as 753,000 less in very long-
term  unemployment.  The  share  of  long-term  unemployed  in  total  unemployment  remains  high,  at 
41.8%, 0.7pp more than the first quarter of 2019. The share of very long-term unemployed in total 
unemployment has also increased by 0.7pp and is now 25.9% (see Chart 21). 

Chart 20: Unemployment, long-term unemployment and very long-term unemployment 

rates in the EU, 2012-2019 

% of labour force

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Unemployment rate

Long-term unemployment rate

Very long-term unemployment rate

Source: Eurostat, LFS, seasonally adjusted data [une_rt_q, une_ltu_q] 
Click here to download chart. 

December 2019 I 25 

 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Chart 21: Unemployment by duration of unemployment in the EU, 2012-2019 

t
n
e
m
y
o
p
m
e
n
u

l

l

a
t
o
t

f
o
%

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

12-23 months

24+ months (very long-term unemployment)

Long-term unemployment

Source: Eurostat, LFS, unadjusted data [lfsq_ugad] 
Note: Data for first quarter of each year 
Click here to download chart 

Long-term unemployment decreases in almost all Member States 

In the second quarter of 2019, long-term unemployment declined in all Member States compared to 
the same quarter of the previous year, except for Luxembourg (0.1pp increase) and the UK where it 
remained stable. The largest reduction occurred in Greece (1.7pp), Croatia (1.4pp) and Spain (1.2pp) 
(Chart 22). 

Greece, however, continued to display by far the highest rates of both long-term unemployed and very 
long-term unemployed (12.2% and 8.5% of the labour force, respectively), followed by Italy (5.5% 
and 3.7%, respectively) and Spain (5.4% and 3.4%, respectively).  

December 2019 I 26 

 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Chart 22: Long-term unemployment rate - EU, euro area and Member States, level and 

change, 2018-2019 

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

Long-term unemployment rate (% of labour force)

Long-term unemployment rate  (left top axis)

Very long-term unemployment rate  (left top axis)

2018Q2-2019Q2 difference in long-term unemployment rate (right bottom axis)

8
2
U
E

9
1
A
E

Z
C

T
M

L
P

K
D

L
N

E
S

K
U

E
E

I
F

U
H

T
A

E
D

U
L

O I
E
R

T
L

I
S

R
H

Y
C

E
B

G
B

V
L

T
P

K
S

R
F

S
E

T
I

L
E

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Year-on-year difference (%)

Source: Eurostat, LFS, seasonally adjusted data [une_ltu_q] 
Note: No 2019Q2 VLTU data available for MT and LU 
Click here to download chart. 

Active population in the EU keeps increasing at a moderate pace 

The activity rate in the EU, for the 15 to 64 age group, reached 74.0% of the EU population in the 
second quarter of 2019 (Chart 23). This is 0.3pp higher than in the first second of 2018. 

In the second quarter of 2019, most Member States registered a year-to-year increase in their activity 
rates  (Chart 23).  The  Member  States  that  experienced  the  strongest  increases  were  Luxembourg 
(+2.0pp), Bulgaria (+1.9pp) and Malta (+1.7pp). On the other hand, the activity rate decreased in 
Denmark (-0.7pp), France (-0.3pp), Italy (-0.3pp), Croatia (-0.2pp) and Sweden (-0.1pp). Italy and 
Croatia  are  also  the  countries  with  the  lowest  activity  rates  in  the  EU  (65.6%  and  66.0%),  while 
Sweden and the Netherlands are the only EU countries with rates above 80%. 

December 2019 I 27 

 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Chart 23: Activity rate – EU and Member States 

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

4
6
-
5
1

l

n
o
i
t
a
u
p
o
p
f
o
%

2019Q2

2018Q2

2012Q1

8
2
U
E

9
1
A
E

E
S

L
N

E
D

K
D

E
E

I
F

K
U

T
L

V
L

T
A

Z
C

Y
C

I

T S
M

T
P

S
E

G I
E
B

K
S

U
H

U
L

R
F

L
P

E
B

L
E

O
R

R
H

T
I

Source: Eurostat, LFS, seasonally adjusted data [lfsi_act_q] 
Note: FR only metropolitan data for 2012Q1 
Click here to download chart. 

Less young people in the EU are neither in employment nor in education or training 

In the EU, the share of people aged 20-34 who are neither in employment, nor in education or training, 
(NEET), decreased in the  second quarter of 2019 by 0.2pp compared with the same quarter of the 
previous year, and reached 10.2%. In the same period, it decreased by 0.5pp in the euro area, where 
it stood at 10.1%.  

Compared with the second quarter of 2019, NEET increased in half of the Member States and shrank 
in the other half. The strongest decrease was recorded in Croatia (-2.3pp), Greece (-2.2pp) and Estonia 
(-2.0pp). NEET rose significantly in Malta (+2.6pp) and Lithuania (+2.2pp). The share of NEET varies 
considerably across the Member States, from 4.2% recorded in the Netherlands to 18.1% recorded in 
Italy. 

December 2019 I 28 

 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Chart 24: Young people aged 15-24 neither in employment nor in education and training 

(NEET) – EU 

% of active population

2019Q2

2018Q2

20

15

10

5

0

EU28 EA19 NL

LU DE

CZ

SI

AT

DK

EE

SE

BE

PL

PT

LT

LV

FI MT

IE

SK UK

FR HR HU

EL

ES

BG CY

RO

IT

Source: Eurostat, LFS [lfsi_neet_q]. Seasonally adjusted data. 
Click here to download chart. 

The share of people 'available to work but not seeking' and 'underemployed' decreases 

Three  supplementary  indicators  to  unemployment  are  used  to  monitor  the  evolution  of 
underemployment and the potential additional labour force. These three indicators are: 'Available for 
work but not seeking', 'Underemployed' and 'Seeking but not available for work'. These indicators are 
measured  as  a  percentage  of  the  labour  force,  i.e.  the  active  population.  They  are  also  called 
supplementary indicators to unemployment (SIU)6. 

The proportion of workers in the EU who are 'Available to work but not seeking' (which includes the 
so-called category of 'discouraged') stood at 2.9% of the labour force in the second quarter of 2019, 
thus  below  pre-2008  levels.  This  rate  decreased  by  0.2pp  compared  to  the  same  quarter  of  the 
previous year. 'Underemployment', i.e. the proportion of those who would like to work additional hours 
and are available to do so, also decreased by 0.2pp and represented 3.2% of the labour force. The 
rate of those 'Seeking but not available for work' continues to be stable at 0.9% of the labour force. 
The decrease in these three indicators amount overall to 0.4pp on a yearly basis, adding to the positive 
developments in unemployment and long-term unemployment (Chart 25).  

6 See:  
explained/index.php?title=Underemployment_and_potential_additional_labour_force_statistics  

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-

December 2019 I 29 

 
 
                                                
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Chart 25: Unemployment, potential labour force and underemployment – EU, 2012-2019 

% of labour force

25

20

15

10

5

0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Underemployed

Seeking but not available

Available but not seeking

Unemployment rate

Total SIU+U

Source: Eurostat, LFS, seasonally adjusted data [une_rt_q, lfsi_sup_q]  
Note: SIU stands for the Supplementary Indicators to Unemployment; they represent the potential additional 
labour force. U = Unemployment. 
Click here to download chart. 

December 2019 I 30 

 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

5. Income and financial situation of households 

The gross disposable income of EU households continues to increase 

In  the  second  quarter  of  2019,  the  real  per  capita  gross  disposable  household  income  (GDHI)7 
continued to grow. In the EU, real per capita GDHI has been growing for 24 consecutive quarters and 
it is now 7.3% higher than in 2008 and 1.8% higher than in same quarter of 2018. In the euro area 
the growth pace remains slightly slower: real per capita GDHI has been growing for 23 consecutive 
quarters,  and  is  3.4%  higher  than  in  2008  and  1.5%  higher  than  in  the  same  quarter  of  2018 
(Chart 26). 

Chart 26: Real GDHI per capita - EU and Euro Area (index 2008 = 100), 2012-2019 

index (2008 = 100)
110

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

94

92

90

EU28

EA

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts, unadjusted data [namq_10_gdp, nasq_10_nf_tr] (DG EMPL calculations) 
Note: GDHI EU aggregate for Member States for which data are available (see footnote 7). Moving averages over 
four last quarters. 
Click here to download chart. 

Developments of real GDHI per capita are positive in almost all Member States 

In the second quarter of 2019, real GDHI per capita grew on a yearly basis in almost all Member States 
for which data are available (see Chart 27). The pace of GDHI growth has been strong in most Member 
States, with a growth rate of 10.7% in Romania and above 3.0% for Spain (3.5%) and Czechia (3.1%). 
Denmark and Austria recorded a decrease (-1.4% and -0.9% respectively), causing Austria to return 
below its 2008 level (real GDHI of 99.3). At the same time, Italy and Greece display low growth rates 
(1.1% and 1.0% respectively) despite levels well below their 2008 average (real GDHI of 94.7 for Italy 
and 72.3 for Greece). 

Three  Member  States  (Greece,  Italy  and  Austria)  have  in  the  second  quarter  of  2019 levels of  real 
GDHI below their 2008 average, but considering that the data are not seasonally adjusted this figure 
can change from quarter to quarter. 

7 The real GDHI growth for the EU is an estimation by DG EMPL based on Member States for which quarterly data are available (18 
Member States: AT, BE, CZ, DE, DK, EL, ES, FI, FR, IE, IT, NL, PL, PT, RO, SE, SI, UK, which account for at least 90% of EU GDHI 
– 2018Q4 for Greece and Romania, 2019Q1 for Poland). The nominal GDHI is converted into real GDHI by deflating with the deflator 
(price index) of household final consumption expenditure. The real GDHI growth for the EU is a weighted average of real GDHI 
growth in Member States. 

December 2019 I 31 

 
 
 
                                                
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Chart 27: Real GDHI per capita – EU, EA and Member States (index 2008 = 100) 

160

150

140

130

)
0
0
1
=

120

8
0
0
2
(

110

2019Q2

2018Q2

x
e
d
n

i

100

90

80

70

U
E

A
E

E
S

O
R

L
P

L
N

Z
C

I
F

I

K S
D

E
B

R
F

K
U

E
D

S
E

T
P

E
I

T
A

T
I

L
E

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts, unadjusted data [namq_10_gdp, nasq_10_nf_tr] (DG EMPL calculations) 
Note: GDHI EU and EA aggregates for Member States for which data are available. 2018Q4 data for Romania, 
and Greece; 2019Q1 for Poland. 
Click here to download chart. 

Chart 28: Real GDP growth, real GDHI growth and its main components, 2012-2019 

r
a
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y
s
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i
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p

n
o

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g
n
a
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c
%

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

EU

Compensation of employees

Compensation of self-employed

Net property income

Net other current transfers

Net social benefits

Taxes on income, wealth
(negative)

Real GDHI

Real GDP

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts, unadjusted data [namq_10_gdp, nasq_10_nf_tr] (DG EMPL calculations) 
Note: GDHI EU aggregate for Member States for which data are available, GDP for EU28. 
Click here to download chart. 

Households benefit from higher income from work 

Despite a slowdown, on average in the EU, the growth of the real gross disposable household income 
(real GDHI) maintains a good pace and has been higher than GDP growth in the last three quarters. 
In  the  second  quarter  of  2019,  the  yearly  real  GDHI  growth  was  2.1%  (2.4%  in  the  first  quarter). 
Income  from  work  continued  driving  this  growth  in  real  GDHI,  with  a  growth  of  1.9%  in  the 

December 2019 I 32 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

compensation of employees. In the last two quarters, net social benefits started to increase (growth 
rate of 0.3% for the second quarter) and net property income to decrease (-0.3%).  

Share of people having difficulties to cover current expenditure is slightly on the rise 

Reported  financial  distress8  is  defined  as  the  need  to  draw  on  savings  or  to  run  into  debt  to  cover 
current expenditures, based on personal perceptions. From its historical peak of nearly 17% recorded 
in early 2014, it gradually declined to 12.7% of the population and remained stable from February to 
May  2019,  but  it  has  slowly  increased  since  then  to  reach  13.2%  in  October  2019  (Chart 29). 
Compared to the same month in 2018 (12.9%), the indicator is slightly higher. 

Financial distress is increasing especially for those on low incomes 

Reported  financial  distress  has  increased  the  most  for  those  on  low  incomes  (lowest  quartile)  and 
reached  23.4%,  0.8pp  more  than  in  October  2018  (Chart 29).  By  comparison,  for  the  wealthiest 
quartile financial distress stood at 7.1% (+0.2pp on a yearly basis). Increases were also recorded for 
the second and third quartile of the population (0.6pp for both, at 14.8 and 11.0 respectively). 

Reported  financial  distress  increases  for  the  lowest  income  quartile  in  several  Member 
States, but large diversity in levels and trends persists 

The levels of financial distress for households with the lowest incomes followed very diverse trends 
among  Member  States.  In  the  third  quarter  of  2019,  and  on  a  yearly  basis,  it  increased  in  several 
countries  and  especially  in  Germany  (+8.7pp),  Austria  (+7.5pp),  Finland  (+7.2pp)  and  Denmark 
(+5.6pp). Belgium became the country with the highest overall share (35.4% - strongly increasing; 
+3.4pp),  followed  by  the  Netherlands  (33.7%  -  strongly  increasing;  +4.5pp)  and  France  (33.0%  - 
strongly  decreasing;  -3.1pp),  all  above  30.0%.  The  strongest  decreases  were  recorded  in  Malta 
(-6.9pp),  Croatia  (-5.5pp),  Greece  (-5.4pp  and  Luxembourg  (-5.0pp).  Estonia  remains  at  very  low 
levels  (2.0%  -  decreasing;  -2.6pp),  while  Sweden  is  the  only  other  country  to  record  a  share  of 
financial distress for the lowest income quartile below 10% (7.2%; -0.9pp) (Chart 30). 

8  For  details  on  Business  and  Consumer  Surveys,  including  consumer  survey's  question  on  the  current  financial  situation  of 
households, see http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/surveys/index_en.htm 

December 2019 I 33 

 
                                                
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Chart 29: Reported financial distress by income quartile – EU, 2012-2019 

27

p
u
o
r
g

24

e
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c
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p
s
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n

i

s
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s
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r

21

18

15

12

f
o
%

9

6

3

0

% need to draw on savings

% need to run into debt

Financial  distress by income quartile 

lowest quartile

second quartile

TOTAL

third quartile

highest quartile

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: European Commission, Business and Consumer Surveys, unadjusted data, 12-months moving average 
(DG EMPL calculations). 
Note: Horizontal lines show the long-term averages for financial distress for the population as a whole and for 
households in the four income quartiles. The overall share of adults reporting having to draw on savings and 
having to run into debt are shown respectively by the light grey and dark grey areas, which together represent 
total financial distress.  
Click here to download chart. 

Chart 30: Reported financial distress in lowest income quartile – Member States 

Source: European Commission, Business and Consumer Surveys, unadjusted data (DG EMPL calculations). 
Note: No data for IE in 2012. 
Click here to download chart. 

December 2019 I 34 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

6. Productivity and labour costs  

Growth in labour productivity in the EU on the rise  

Growth in labour productivity, as measured by output per worker started rising again both in the EU 
and in the euro area, after a slowdown in the past years. In the third quarter of 2019, year-on-year 
productivity  growth  was  at  0.8%  in  the  EU  as  a  whole,  and  0.6%  in  the  euro  area.  The  US  labour 
productivity grew at a much faster pace, reaching 1.4% in 2019 Q2 (last data available). On the other 
hand,  Japan,  after  five  consecutive  negative  quarters  rates,  went  back  to  positive  and  recorded  a 
growth in labour productivity of 0.2% in 2019 Q2 (Chart 31). 

Chart 31: Real labour productivity growth – EU, euro area, US and JP, 2012-2019 

r
a
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y

s
u
o
i
v
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r
p
r
e
v
o

e
g
n
a
h
c
%

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

EU28

EA19

US

JP

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts [namq_10_lp_ulc] and OECD. Unadjusted data, seasonally adjusted data for 
US and JP 
Note: Labour productivity measured as GDP in constant prices per employed person 
Click here to download chart. 

Productivity  increase  made  a  smaller  contribution  to  economic  growth  than  employment 
growth 

Total output growth can be broken down into developments in the number of workers and output per 
worker.  In  all  the  Member  States  but  three  (Luxembourg,  Greece  and  Malta)  the  year-on-year 
productivity growth registered in 2019 Q3 was positive. However, in most Member States and in the 
EU as a whole the majority of GDP growth is attributable to the increasing number of workers, whereas 
gains in productivity played a less important role (Chart 32).  

December 2019 I 35 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Chart 32: GDP, employment and labour productivity growth – EU, euro area and Member 

States 

r
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s
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p
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a
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%

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Employment
Real GDP
Real Productivity per person

2019Q3

8
2
U
E

9
1
A
E

T
L

O
R

L
P

E
I

U
H

G
B

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B

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Y S
C

U
L

L
E

T
M

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts, unadjusted data [namq_10_pe, namq_10_gdp] 
Note: Labour productivity is measured as GDP per employed person. Data for several countries refer to 2019Q2. 
Click here to download chart. 

Compensation per employee is growing in the EU  

Following a brief decline in 2016, nominal compensation per employee has been growing from the first 
quarter of 2017. The growth rate registered in 2019 Q3 compared to the same period of the previous 
year  was  2.7%  in  the  EU  and  2.5%  in  the  euro  area.  Nominal  compensation  per  employee  (as 
measured in national currency) grew in all EU Member States but Malta. In Lithuania, Slovakia, Latvia, 
Hungary and Poland there was a strong growth (8% or more). Nominal unit labour costs (a measure 
of cost-push inflationary pressures) recorded an increase of 1.8% in the EU and of 1.9% in the euro 
area. In Lithuania, Slovakia, Latvia and Hungary the rise was above 5%. France and Denmark saw a 
decrease,  as  productivity  growth  was  stronger  than  the  growth  in  compensation  per  employee 
(Chart 33). 

December 2019 I 36 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Chart 33: Growth in nominal labour compensation and its components – EU, euro area and 

Member States 

r
a
e
y

s
u
o
i
v
e
r
p
r
e
v
o

e
g
n
a
h
c
%

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

Nominal compensation

Real productivity

Nominal unit labour cost

2019Q3

8
2
U
E

9
1
A
E

T
L

K
S

V
L

I

U S
H

E
E

Y
C

L
P

K
U

O
R

Z
C

E
D

L
N

R
H

T
A

E
B

U
L

T
P

S
E

E
S

T
I

T
M

L
E

I
F

E
I

K
D

R
F

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts, unadjusted data [namq_10_lp_ulc, namq_10_pe, namq_10_gdp] (DG EMPL 
calculations) 
Note: Labour productivity is measured as GDP per employed person. Data for several countries refer to 2019Q2. 
No nominal compensation data for BG. 
Click here to download chart. 

Real unit labour costs increases slightly in the EU 

In the third quarter of 2019, real unit labour costs9  increased by 0.3% both in the EU and in the euro 
area compared with the same quarter of the previous year. Lithuania, Cyprus and Slovakia saw the 
strongest  (above  4%)  increase  as  real  compensation  per  employee  rose,  sharply  overtaking 
productivity growth and leading to a higher increase in the real unit labour cost. On the other hand, 
real unit labour costs fell in ten Member States, and in some of these (Romania, Czechia, Ireland and 
Sweden) real increases in compensation per employee were accompanied by lower real unit labour 
costs (Chart 34).  

9 This indicator measures the gap between real compensation per employee and labour productivity, which is also a measure of 
the labour income share. 

December 2019 I 37 

 
 
                                                
 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Chart 34: Growth in real unit labour cost – EU and Member States 

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

r
a
e
y

s
u
o
i
v
e
r
p
r
e
v
o

e
g
n
a
h
c
%

-2.0

-4.0

Real compensation

Real productivity

Real unit labour cost

2019Q3

8
2
U
E

9
1
A
E

T
L

Y
C

K
S

V S
L

I

K
U

R
H

U
H

E
E

E
D

L
E

T
A

E
B

T
I

L
P

T
P

S
E

L
N

Z
C

U
L

E
S

I

K F
D

T
M

E
I

R
F

O
R

Source: Eurostat, National Accounts, unadjusted data [namq_10_lp_ulc, namq_10_gdp] (DG EMPL calculations) 
Note: Data for several countries refer to 2019Q2. No nominal compensation data for BG. 
Click here to download chart. 

December 2019 I 38 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

7. Labour demand: vacancies, labour shortages and hiring 

activity  

The job vacancy rate remains at record high, with large differences among Member States 

The unmet demand for labour, as expressed by the job vacancy rate10 has been broadly rising in the 
EU since the end of 2014, but has been stable in the last five quarters. In the third quarter of 2019, it 
stands at 2.3% both in the EU and in the euro area (+0.1pp compared to the same quarter of the 
previous year in the euro area)11. These are the highest values registered since 2006. The job vacancy 
rate ranged from 0.6% in Greece to 6.2% in Czechia and increased in several Member States year-
on-year, with the highest increase recorded in Czechia (+0.6pp). By contrast, it decreased slightly in 
twelve Member States, although in most cases by 0.1pp only (-0.3pp in Slovenia and -0.2 in Croatia, 
Hungary and Romania) (Chart 35).  

Chart 35: Job vacancy rates – EU, euro area and Member States 

%

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

2.3 2.3

8
2
U
E

9
1
A
E

6.2

2019Q3

2018Q3

3.4 3.3 3.3

3.1 3.0 2.9

2.6 2.5 2.5

2.2 2.1 2.0

1.8 1.8 1.7

1.5 1.4 1.3

1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9

0.6

Z
C

E
B

E
D

L
N

V
L

T
A

T
M

K
U

U
H

E S
S

I

I
F

K
D

E
E

Y
C

U
L

R
H

T
L

R
F

O
R

L
P

K
S

T
I

E
I

T
P

G
B

S
E

L
E

Source: Eurostat, Job Vacancy Statistics, seasonally adjusted data [jvs_q_nace2] 
Note: NACE Rev 2 sections B to S covered. DK: sections B to N; FR, IT, MT: business units with 10 or more 
employees. Data for BE, BG, CY, DK, EE, EL, ES, FI, IE, HU, HR, LT, LU, LV, MT, PL, PT, SE and SK refer to 
2019Q2/2018Q2, while for the other Member States data refer to 2019Q3/2018Q3. 
Click here to download chart. 

10 The Job Vacancy rate is number of job vacancies divided by the sum of occupied posts and job vacancies. 
11 While EU and EA averages are available for 2019 Q3, the latest observation is 2019 Q2 for most individual Member States. 

December 2019 I 39 

 
 
 
 
                                                
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Labour shortages decrease while unemployment remains stable 

In  the  third  quarter  of  2019,  the  unemployment  rate  remained  stable  at  6.3%  and,  for  the  second 
time since the third quarter of 2015 (first time was in the first quarter of 2019), the labour shortage 
indicator  registered  a  decline  (16.7%;  -3.2pp  compared  to  same  quarter  of  the  previous  year) 
(Chart 36). Even if it has still to be confirmed, the Beveridge curve, which plots the unemployment 
rate against an indicator of unfilled jobs12, seems to show a new trend. The current value of the labour 
shortages  indicator  is  still  well  above  pre-crisis  levels,  suggesting  that,  at  the  EU  level,  despite  a 
decrease, labour shortages are still seen as a major drag on economic growth. However, the indicator 
varies widely between countries. The Statistical Annex presents the Beveridge curves for EU Member 
States. 

Chart 36: Beveridge curve – EU, 2008-2019 

)

%

(

r
o
t
a
c
i
d
n

I

e
g
a
t
r
o
h
S

r
u
o
b
a
L

​18q3

19q3

17q3

08q3

​16q3

24

21

18

15

12

9

6

3

0

15q3

11q3​

14q3

12q3

13q3

10q3

09q3

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Unemployment rate (%)

Source: Eurostat, LFS and European Commission, Business and Consumer Surveys [une_rt_q, ei_bsin_q_r2] 
Note: Labour shortage indicator derived from EU business survey results (% of manufacturing firms pointing to 
labour shortage as a factor limiting production) 
Click here to download chart. 

12 The indicator presented here is published as part of the EU Business and Consumer Surveys. It reflects to what extent 
businesses see the availability of labour as a factor that limits production. At the same time, another indicator, the job vacancy 
rate, has been stable at 2.3% (Chart 38). 

December 2019 I 40 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                
 
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​
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​
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​
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Stability in employment and exit from unemployment are high 

In the second quarter of 2019, at EU level (Germany is not included), the transition rates from a status 
on the labour market to another remained similar to those of one year earlier. 96.7% of the people in 
employment in the first quarter of 2019 are still working in the second quarter. In the same period, 
20.4% of the unemployed were back to work, while 22.6% of the same group moved to inactivity. 
6.4%  of  the  inactive  people  changed  their  status,  half  to  employment  (3.2%)  and  half  to 
unemployment (3.2%) (Chart 37). 

Chart 37: Labour market transitions – EU, 2019Q2 

% of total population aged 15-74

20.4%

Unemployment

96.7%

Employment

1.2%

3.2%

22.6%

3.2%

2.1%

Inactivity

57.1%

93.6%

Source: Eurostat, LFS longitudinal data [lfsi_long_q]. Data seasonally adjusted. 
Note: No data for DE (excluded from the aggregate). The stocks are different in each category. Consequently, the 
percentages cannot be compared across categories. 
Click here to download chart. 

December 2019 I 41 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion 
ESDE Quarterly Review 

Annex 

See Excel file with charts per Member State and for the EU and euro area 

1: Real GDP growth, real GDHI growth, employment growth and unemployment rates  

2: Real GDP growth, employment growth, real GDHI growth and its main components  

3: Employment growth by sectors  

4: Beveridge curves 

December 2019 I 42 

 
 
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