JRC MARS bulletin : crop monitoring in Europe. Vol. 27 No 9, September 2019.
Date: 2019-12-10
Institutions: Joint Research Centre
Subjects: agricultural situation, atmospheric conditions, climatology, crop production, crop yield, meteorology, serial publication

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9

Period covered: 1 August until 10 September 2019
Issued: 16 September 2019

JRC MARS Bulletin
Crop monitoring in Europe
September 2019

Reduced yield outlook for maize and sunflowers 
Grain maize yield forecast now on average

Hot and regionally dry conditions negatively impacted the final part of the — hitherto very positive — summer crops growing 
season in south-eastern Europe. This, combined with the poor condition of crops in large parts of central and western Europe, 
has resulted in an overall mediocre yield outlook for summer crops at EU level. 

Since 20 August — the end of the review period of the August 
issue of the bulletin — most parts of Europe experienced at 
least one heatwave. 

The high temperatures in south-eastern Europe — in several 
regions  combined  with  a  marked  rain  deficit  —  resulted 
in  a  substantial  reduction  of  the  hitherto  very  high  yield 
expectations in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. 

Drought  conditions  persisted  in  central  and  northern  France, 
northern Germany, western Poland and north-western Czechia. 
Summer crops in these regions are significantly compromised, 
with  yield  expectations  below  the  5-year  average.  Pasture 
productivity has also been below average in these regions.

The yield outlook for rice, as reported in Section 4.2, is around 
average at EU level.

Yield (t/ha)
MARS 
2019 
forecasts

May 
Bulletin 

% Diff 
19/5yrs

% Diff 
August

5.57

5.82

6.03

3.60

4.92

4.11

6.01

7.93

3.76

4.15

Crop

TOTAL CEREALS

Total Wheat

Avg 
5yrs

5.53

5.71

soft wheat 5.94

durum wheat 3.46

Total Barley

4.86

spring barley 4.16

winter barley 5.79

Grain maize

Rye

Triticale

Rape and turnip 
rape

Potato

Sugar beet

Sunflower

7.62

3.79

4.12

3.24

3.09

33.8

75.2

2.21

32.7

71.5

2.39

5.53

5.82

6.03

3.59

4.92

4.10

6.01

7.63

3.77

4.14

3.09

32.9

72.2

2.29

-0.1

+1.9

+1.5

+3.9

+1.1

-1.6

+3.8

+0.2

-0.5

+0.3

-0.7

+0.0

+0.0

-0.3

+0.0

-0.2

+0.0

-3.8

+0.3

-0.2

-4.7

+0.0

-2.8

-4.0

+3.8

+0.3

+1.0

-4.2

Issued: 13 September 2019

1
Agrometeorological 
overview

2
Remote sensing — 
observed canopy 
conditions

3
Pasture monitoring

4
Country analysis

5
Crop yield forecasts

6
Atlas

Joint  
Research  
Centre

 
 
 
 
 
 
2

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

1.  Agrometeorological overview

1.1.  Areas of concern

France, central Italy, and regionally in south-eastern Europe. 
Unusually high maximum temperatures for the last dekad of 
August,  reaching  above  32°C,  were  recorded  in  the  Benelux 
countries, northern Germany and Poland.

The  high  temperatures  in  south-eastern  Europe  contributed 
to  a  shortening  of  the  grain-filling  period  and  increased 
senescence of summer crops. Impacts in several regions were 
aggravated by a rain deficit, resulting in substantially reduced 
yield expectations in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria.

Continued  lack  of  rainfall  deepened  soil  moisture  deficits  in 
central and northern France, large parts of Ukraine and north-
western  Germany,  amplifying  drought  conditions  in  these 
areas. Even though some beneficial rainfall arrived in north-
eastern Germany, western Poland and north-western Czechia, 
drought in these regions still persists. Summer crops in these 
regions are significantly compromised, with yield expectations 
below the 5-year average.

Substantial rain surplus has been recorded in Ireland, western 
and  northern  parts  of  the  United  Kingdom,  Denmark  and 
southern  Scandinavia,  however  with  only  limited  effects  on 
summer  crop  harvests  up  to  now.  Additionally,  abundant 
rainfall  after  20  August  could  have  further  hampered  the 
harvesting activities of spring cereals in the British Isles and 
Denmark,  which  were  already  already  affected  during  the 
preceding period.

Drought in northern Germany created poor conditions for the 
sowing and emergence of winter rapeseed.

Relevant  weather  events  that  occurred  before  20  August, 
the  impacts  of  which  were  already  discussed  in  the  August 
bulletin, are not discussed here.

Since  then,  France,  the  Benelux  countries,  south-eastern 
United  Kingdom,  northern  Germany,  Poland,  south-eastern 
Italy  and  Spain  have 
Ukraine,  south-eastern  Europe, 
experienced  at  least  one  heatwave.  Maximum  recorded 
temperatures  reached  above  34  °C  in  central  and  southern 

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3

1.2.  Summer 2019 (June, July, August)

Warmer-than-usual  conditions  were  observed  in  a  large 
area of central-eastern Europe, with daily mean temperature 
anomalies  between  2  °C  and  4  °C  above  the  long-term 
average  (LTA).  There  were  slightly  warmer-than-usual 
conditions in the rest of Europe, except for the western part 
of the Iberian peninsula, with positive daily mean temperature 
anomalies less than 2 °C above the LTA. In most of central and 
eastern  Europe,  daily  maximum  temperatures  were  higher 
than usual, with anomalies between 2 °C and 4 °C above the 
LTA.  In  most  of  Europe,  this  summer  was  among  the  three 
warmest  summers  on  record,  both  in  terms  of  seasonal 
mean and maximum daily temperatures. It was the warmest 
on record in a large region of eastern Europe.

Severe  heatwaves  were  observed  in  June  and  July  in  large 
regions  of  Europe,  with  record-breaking  temperatures  above 
40 °C.

Drier-than-usual  conditions  were  observed  in  the  south-
western  part  of  the  Iberian  peninsula,  with  total  precipitation 
anomalies  of  100  %  to  80  %  below  the  LTA.  Drier-than-usual 
conditions  were  also  recorded  in  large  regions  of  central  and 
eastern Europe, with anomalies mainly between 50 % and 30 % 
below the LTA.

Wetter-than-usual  conditions  were  recorded  in  Turkey  and 
the United Kingdom, with respective precipitation anomalies of 
over 100 %, and mainly between 50 % and 80 %, above the LTA.

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

5

1.3.  Meteorological review (1-10 September)

Warm weather anomaly with temperatures up to 6 °C above 
the  LTA  characterised  eastern  Europe.  Maximum  temperatures 
during  a  heatwave  in  parts  of  Poland,  southern  Ukraine  and 
south-eastern Europe reached above 34 °C. Western Black Sea 
regions  recorded  more  than  4  hot  days  with  maximum  daily 
temperature above 30 °C.

Colder-than-usual  conditions  with  temperature  anomalies 
between 2 °C and 4 °C below the LTA prevailed in France and 
northern Spain.

Dry  conditions  prevailed  in  a  large  part  of  the  Iberian 
peninsula,  central  and  south-eastern  France,  and  a  major 
part of eastern Europe and Turkey.

Abundant rainfall was recorded in southern Scandinavia, 
the northern part of the British Isles, eastern and northern 
Alpine  regions,  eastern  Czechia  and  the  central  part  of 
Slovakia.  Rainfall  cumulates 
locally 
exceeded 80 mm.

in  these  regions 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

2.  Remote sensing — observed canopy conditions

Most of Europe negatively affected by hot or dry conditions

The  map  displays  differences  between  the  fraction  of  absorbed  photosynthetically  active  radiation  (fAPAR),  computed  from  remote  sensing 
imagery between 1 August and 31 August 2019, and the short-term average (2014-2018) of fAPAR for the same period. Positive anomalies (in 
shades of green) reflect above-average canopy density, while negative anomalies (in shades of red) reflect below-average biomass accumulation.

In  Italy,  summer  crops  in  northern  regions  (Piemonte, 
Lombardia,  Emilia-Romagna)  benefited  from  warmer-
than-usual  weather  conditions,  while 
in  north-eastern 
regions  (e.g.  Veneto,  Friuli  Venezia  Giulia)  slightly  positive 
anomalies  are  related  to  delayed  development  of  summer 
crops  (in  particular  grain  maize  and  soybean),  which  in  an 
average year would be reaching the end of the growth cycle. 
In  France,  despite  the  rain  in  August,  summer  crops  were 
not  able  to  recover  from  the  negative  impacts  caused  by 
the  previous  month’s  heatwaves.  As  a  consequence,  crop 
biomass accumulation has been below average, especially in 
northern and central (e.g. Centre) agricultural areas. Above-
average  biomass  accumulation  is  indicated  in  the  United 
Kingdom  and  Ireland,  where  adequate  water  supply  and 
warmer-than-usual temperatures in August favoured growth 
of  summer  crops  such  as  sugar  beet  and  potatoes  (e.g. 
Lincolnshire). In the southern regions of Germany, summer 
crops showed above-average biomass production in August, 

thanks to fewer hot days than usual and sufficient rain (e.g. 
Mittelfranken). In large parts of northern Germany, and most 
of central, north-eastern and north-western Poland, drought 
conditions  continued.  Despite  some  improvement  to  soil 
moisture conditions during August, the general expectations 
for  summer  crops  are  negative  (e.g.  Łódzkie).  Average  to 
positive biomass accumulation of summer crops is indicated 
in Austria, Slovakia,  Czechia  and  Hungary  (especially in 
western  Hungarian  regions,  e.g.  Dél-Alföld,  where  part  of 
the positive fAPAR signal is due to increased weed pressure) 
due  to  high  temperatures  and  adequate  level  of  rainfall. 
In  Romania  (e.g.  Sud-Est)  and  Bulgaria,  summer  crop 
biomass  accumulation  (mainly  for  maize  and  sunflowers) 
was  negatively  affected  in  August  by  both  heat  and  water 
stress.  Similarly,  central  and  eastern  regions  of  Ukraine 
(e.g.  Kharkivs’ka),  where  summer  crops  such  as  soybean, 
maize and sunflowers prevail, show below-average biomass 
accumulation during August.

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

7

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

3.  Pasture monitoring

Some recovery of pasture conditions

The  map  above  left  gives  the  overall  pasture  productivity 
index (PPI) for July and August, and thus an indication of the 
availability  of  biomass.  The  map  above  right  gives  the  PPI 
for the last two dekads of August only, thus reflecting recent 
conditions for pasture growth.

In  July  and  August,  temperatures  were  warmer  than  usual, 
while  rainfall  was  below  average  in  large  parts  of  Europe. 
As a result, grassland growth has been constrained in many 
parts  of  Europe.  Considering  this  period  as  a  whole,  the 
most  affected  countries/regions  were  France,  the  Benelux 
countries,  northern  and  central  Germany,  north-western 
Poland,  Lithuania,  and  to  a  lesser  extent  northern  Italy, 
Czechia, part of Austria and part of Slovakia.

Favourable conditions prevailed in central and southern Italy, 
Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Sweden, 
Ireland and the United Kingdom. In the Iberian peninsula, 
the  long  period  of  unusually  hot  and  dry  conditions  seems 
to have come to an end, with the main central/southern part 
returning  to  average  canopy  conditions  for  this  time  of  the 
year (see graph Extremadura, below).

After a very hot end to July, northern Germany and western 
Poland  had  a  normal  temperature  regime  in  August,  with 
the  exception  of  a  short  heatwave  towards  the  end  of  the 
month.  The  rain  deficit  persisted  in  northern  Poland  and  in 
eastern Germany, as well as in parts of Nordrhein-Westfalen 
and Niedersachsen, where the condition of grasslands shows 
some recovery but is still below average. This is contrasting to 
areas along the northern German coastline and in Schleswig 

Holstein,  where  recent  weather  conditions  have  been  very 
favourable. In southern Germany (Bayern and parts of Baden-
Württemberg), biomass formation is at above-average levels 
thanks to average or above-average precipitation.

Conditions in France are also heterogeneous. In the east and 
northwest,  and  in  Bourgogne,  the  rainfall  observed  in  early 
August  was  insufficient  for  soil  moisture  to  replenish  (see 
graph). In the south, weather conditions were more favourable 
but  the  soils  were  too  dry  for  grasslands  to  recover  in  the 
most  impacted  regions  (Auvergne  and  Poitou-Charentes), 
where  rain  fell  only  in  the  first  two  dekads  of  August  (see 
graph). Other southern regions received more rainfall during 
the period of analysis and grassland productivity was closer 
to the average. In north-western France, August was dry and 
hot;  parts  of  Bretagne  had  stressed  canopy  conditions  and 
some water balance deficit.

In  Ireland  and  the  United  Kingdom,  pasture  conditions 
have been favourable throughout the July-August period (see 
graph).

In  southern-central  and  south-eastern  Europe,  weather 
conditions  have  generally  been  favourable,  as  reflected  in 
above-average  PPI  for  the  July-August  period  as  a  whole, 
but  some  weakening  has  been  observed  more  recently.  In 
Bulgaria,  no  significant  precipitation  was  observed  after 
5  August,  and  daily  temperatures  mostly  exceeded  the  LTA, 
resulting in quick leaf senescence, especially in the northern 
and  eastern  regions  of  the  country  (see  graphs).  Central 
Romania  was  exceptionally  warm,  with  10-16  hot  days 

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

9

(Tmax > 30 °C) — more than usual — during August, yet with 
near-average to average rainfall sustaining good conditions. 
In the east, grasslands are in a weaker condition in the areas 
close  to  the  Black  Sea  due  to  scarce  precipitation.  Some 
improvement is visible northward along the Moldavian border 
where plants benefited from significant rainfall.

conditions,  with  the  exception  of  Lithuania  with  some  lower-
than-average conditions. In Finland, the second grass harvest 
was low, but the third cut in autumn is expected to be high in 
rainy western areas of Finland. In Denmark and Sweden, pasture 
productivity was close to average; the negative anomalies at 
the end of the period of analysis are mainly the consequence 
of a lack of remote sensing observations due to cloud cover.

Throughout the July-August period, rainfall was below average 
in  Lithuania  and  Latvia,  but  above  average  in  Estonia, 
Finland, Denmark and Sweden. Cumulative radiation is well 
above  average  in  the  Baltics,  giving  overall  average  canopy 

Some  regions  are  highlighted  below,  together  with  a  brief 
description  of  the  main  meteorological  drivers  related  to 
pasture growth.

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

4.  Country analysis

4.1.  European Union

France
Weather conditions improved too late for summer crops to recover

The first half of August was particularly rainy, but crops did 
not  recover  from  the  dry  conditions  mainly  caused  by  the 
heatwaves  observed  at  the  end  of  June  and  end  of  July. 
The yield forecasts for all summer crops remain close to the 
lowest observed in the last 10 years.

Cumulative rainfall was close to the average for the period 
of  analysis,  except  in  Bourgogne,  Auvergne,  Limousin  and 
Provence-Alpes-Côte  d’Azur,  where  a  substantial  rain 
deficit  (20-35  %  below  the  LTA)  was  observed.  Most  of 
the rain came during the first half of August in all regions. 
Cumulative radiation was above the average for the period 
of  analysis,  thanks  to  particularly  sunny  weather  during 
the last dekad of August and the beginning of September. 
Temperatures were above the LTA during the first and last 
dekads  of  August,  thus  increasing  evapotranspiration  and 

limiting the benefits of the rainfall observed during the first 
half of August.

Grain  maize  and  sunflower  did  not  recover  from  the  dry 
conditions reported previously, as the rain came too late, largely 
after the start of flowering. Grain maize and sunflower yields are 
expected to be below average in all regions except the south-
west,  Aquitaine  and  the  western  part  of  Midi-Pyrénées,  where 
no irrigation restrictions were ongoing in July. Adding to the dry 
conditions,  the  early-sown  grain  maize  was  heat  impacted  at 
flowering, which coincided with the heatwave at the end of July. 
Sugar beet and potatoes recovered very slightly, thanks to the 
rain, but no major changes are expected; our forecast remains 
nearly  unchanged.  An  exceptionally  low  yield  is  expected  for 
starch potatoes. The yield of consumption potatoes is expected 
to be substantially below average, but the quality is expected to 
be high in light of the low disease pressure.

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

11

Germany
Persistent rain deficit in the east

Despite  somewhat  better-growing  conditions  in  August, 
summer  crops  have  not  fully  recovered  as  the  rain  deficit 
continues  to  persist  in  large  parts  of  Germany  and  soils 
are  too  dry.  Maize  and  potatoes  are  forecast  below  their 
respective 5-year average, while sugar beet should be close 
to the 5-year average.

The  period  under  review  was  characterised  by  unsettled 
weather,  bringing  much-needed  rain  and  mostly  seasonal 
temperatures, with the exception of a pronounced heatwave 
towards the end of August. However, the persistent rain deficit 
in eastern Germany did not ease sufficiently to help summer 
crops substantially recover. Soils are still very dry, especially 
deeper  soil  horizons.  This  is  also  true  for  large  parts  of 
Nordrhein-Westfalen as well as in Niedersachsen — the most 
important region for production of potatoes and sugar beet. 
Our  crop  simulation  results  show  clearly  underperforming 
crops, due to the dry and hot conditions earlier in the crop cycle. 

This even applies to sugar beet, which has very good water-
use efficiency and better capacity for recovery than potatoes. 
Maize in eastern and north-western Germany is not doing well 
either, with storage organ weights simulated below average, 
although somewhat better than in 2018. By contrast, maize 
is  faring  relatively  well  in  Bayern  and  Baden-Württemberg, 
where fewer hot days than usual and sufficient rain provided 
positive  crop  growth  conditions.  The  yield  forecast  is  at  the 
same level as in the August issue of the bulletin.

The  harvest  of  winter  cereals  was  completed  with  average 
yields  below  the  5-year  average.  Particularly  low  yields 
in  the  east  were  partially  compensated  by  southern  and 
central regions. Rapeseed exhibited low yields for the fourth 
consecutive year. Rapeseed sowing for the 2019/2020 season 
has also made a poor start: as in late summer/autumn 2018, 
soils have again been partially too dry for successful sowing 
and germination.

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

Poland
Continued below-average yield outlook for summer crops

Rainy weather in August improved soil moisture conditions. 
However,  yield  potentials  of  summer  crops  had  already 
been  reduced  and  are  not  expected  to  significantly 
improve.

The  analysis  period  was  slightly  warmer  than  usual, 
with  a  particularly  warm  last  dekad  of  August  (4  ℃ 
above  average).  Precipitation  was  variable  across  the 
country: significantly above average in south-eastern and 
western  regions,  significantly  below  average  in  north-
western regions, and close to average in the centre. Soil 
water  conditions  were  improved  by  the  August  rains  in 
most  of  the  country,  except  in  the  north-eastern  regions 
(in  particular  Lubelskie  and  Wielkopolskie),  where  dry 
conditions still prevail.

Sowing  of  rapeseed  is  completed.  The  sugar  beet  harvest 
campaign  has  already  begun,  with  initial  reports  indicating 
below-average  yields  as  a  consequence  of  the  unfavourable 
conditions during the season, as described in earlier issues of 
the bulletin. As soil moisture conditions for sugar beet improved 
in  August,  yields  may  still  somewhat  increase  if  conditions 
remain  favourable  over  the  coming  weeks.  Potato  crops  also 
benefited from the recently improved soil moisture conditions, 
but yield expectations are still below the 5-year average. The 
condition of maize is highly variable across regions and fields. 
At country level, our model indicates very low maize biomass 
compared with an average season. The harvest of green maize 
has already started (earlier than usual) as plants have very low 
water content. Our yield forecasts remain below average for all 
summer crops, most distinctly for green maize and grain maize.

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

13

Ireland and United Kingdom
Continued positive outlook despite wet conditions during harvesting in the north

Improved weather conditions at the end of August enabled good 
progress with the harvest, including in northern areas. Conditions 
were favourable for the growth of sugar beet and potatoes, but 
a high incidence of diseases was reported for these crops.

Warmer-than-usual  weather  prevailed  during  the  review 
period, with the exception of a few colder days around mid-
August  and  at  the  beginning  of  September.  Rainfall  was 
generally  well  above  average  in  both  countries  but  the  last 
dekad of August was relatively dry. Precipitation was slightly 
below the LTA in the South East and East of England regions 
of the United Kingdom.

In most regions, harvesting of winter barley and rapeseed was 
completed at the end of August, while the harvesting of wheat 
and spring barley continued in northern United Kingdom and 
Ireland. Field reports are mixed for northern United Kingdom, 

mentioning  cereal  yields  from  below  average  to  very  good. 
Wet weather conditions in the northern regions, which delayed 
harvesting  and  caused  lodging  (as  reported  in  our  August 
bulletin),  generally  had  no  significant  negative  effects  on 
winter and spring cereal yields.

Conditions  were  favourable  for  the  growth  of  sugar  beet 
and potatoes, but a high incidence of diseases was reported 
for  these  crops:  potato  blight  was  observed  in  many  potato 
crops in Ireland (1) and northern United Kingdom (2), and an 
increasing occurrence of rust and cercospora was reported for 
sugar beet in the United Kingdom (3). Winter rapeseed drilling 
started  at  the  end  of  August  in  both  Member  States.  The 
potato harvest started at the end of August.

The  positive  yield  forecasts  of  last  month’s  bulletin  were 
maintained.

(1)  www.teagasc.ie/media/website/publications/2019/Crop-Report-27-Aug-2019.pdf 
(2)  www.sruc.ac.uk/info/120118/crop_clinic/510/ 
(3)  https://bbro.co.uk/media/50107/19-advisory-bulletin-no-18.pdf 

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

Spain and Portugal
South still dry; favourable conditions in the north

During  the  review  period  the  northern  part  of  the  Iberian 
peninsula received both average levels of rainfall or above-
average  levels,  like  in  Cantabria.  Southern  and  central 
regions  have  had  no  effective  rainfall  since  mid  May  (see 
figure  for  Badajoz),  coupled  with  persistently  high  radiation 
and  temperature  levels,  giving  above-average  potential 
evapotranspiration and exceptionally negative water balances 
at the beginning of summer in most of Portugal (see figure for 
Oeste) and throughout summer in southern Spain (see figure 
Valladolid).

The water reserves continue to decrease in most reservoirs, 
in Extremadura, the Guadiana basin reservoirs are lower than 

the  2017  and  2018  minima,  now  reaching  critical  levels. 
Similar  conditions  are  presented  for  the  Segura,  Tajo,  Tinto, 
Odiel and Piedras reservoirs (source: www.embalses.net).

The  yield  outlook  is  positive  for  potatoes  and  sugar  beet  in 
Spain  and  average  in  Portugal.  The  maize  yield  forecast  in 
Portugal  is  around  average  and  unchanged;  in  Spain,  heat 
stress has impacted part of the production areas (e.g. Aragón, 
see figure for Badajoz) and was slightly reduced further. For 
sunflowers, which are usually not irrigated, the yield outlook 
is  slightly  below  average  due  to  the  unusually  hot  and  dry 
conditions,  which  reduced  the  potential  of  the  crop.  The 
outlook remained unchanged.

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

15

Italy
Below-average yield outlook for summer crops, except for sunflower and potato

Warmer-than-usual  weather  conditions  prevailed  in  most 
summer  crop-production  regions.  A  heatwave  in  August 
caused  some  stress  to  summer  crops  in  northern  regions. 
Green  maize  and  sunflower  harvests  are  almost  completed; 
grain maize and soybean crops are ripening.

From  10  August  to  15  August,  a  heatwave  occurred  in 
northern  and  central  agricultural  regions  of  Italy.  Hot 
temperatures  caused  some  (limited)  damage  to  green 
maize, grain maize, soybean and sugar beet in the Po Valley 
(mainly eastern parts) and accelerated sunflower ripening in 
central regions (Marche, Toscana and Umbria). Temperatures 
gradually  returned  to  seasonal  values  from  the  second 
dekad of August onward. Rain favoured agricultural areas of 
the upper Po Valley; rain events prevailing at the beginning 
of  August  and  at  the  beginning  of  September  attenuated 

the effects of the hot conditions in August. Remote sensing 
indicators  suggest  close-to-average  biomass  accumulation 
for  summer  crops  in  north-western  regions  (Piemonte  and 
Lombardia, which account for about 45 % of national green 
maize and grain maize production) and for those in Emilia-
Romagna  (55  %  of  sugar  beet  production).  North-eastern 
regions  show  delays  in  crop  development  of  10-20  days, 
and fairly above-average biomass accumulation (Veneto and 
Friuli Venezia Giulia — 25 % of green maize and grain maize 
production;  65  %  of  soybean  production).  Above-average 
biomass levels are observed in Marche (35 % of sunflower 
production).

Our yield forecasts for grain maize, green maize and soybean 
were revised slightly downwards. The forecasts for potatoes, 
sugar beet and sunflowers remained essentially the same.

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

Hungary
Yield expectations for summer crops reduced by a series of heatwaves

This  review  period  (1  August-10  September)  was  among 
the  hottest  in  our  climatological  archive.  High  temperatures 
and  dry  soil  moisture  conditions  compromised  biomass 
accumulation for all summer crops, reducing the yield outlook 
from very positive to moderately above-average levels.

For  the  review  period  as  a  whole,  temperatures  exceeded 
the  LTA  by  1-3  °C.  Two  to  six  heatwaves  have  been 
experienced  since  the  beginning  of  August,  with  10-25  hot 
days (Tmax > 30 °C) in total, exceeding the usual incidence by 
3-15 days.

In western and central Hungary, precipitation totals reached 
around  average  levels  (40-100  mm).  However,  considerable 
areas along the eastern border received only 15-30 mm (30-

50 % of the LTA). The last dekad of August was particularly 
dry and hot, causing delay to the start of rapeseed sowing.

led 

temperatures 

High 
to  accelerated  summer  crop 
development  and  unfavourably  shortened  the  grain-filling 
stage for maize and sunflower crops, as reflected in premature 
senescence of the leaf area. From late July to early August, soil 
moisture content decreased under summer crops, to average 
or  (in  north-western  and  eastern  regions)  below-average 
level. Biomass accumulation practically stalled due to these 
unfavourable  factors,  and  consequently  our  yield  forecast 
was  revised  downwards  to  the  trend  level.  The  excessively 
warm  conditions  also  compromised  photosynthesis  of  less 
heat-stress-tolerant crops such as potato and sugar beet, for 
which the yield forecasts are now below the 5-year average.

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

17

Romania
Heatwaves and water deficit affected yield formation of summer crops

Temperatures  fluctuated  above  the  LTA  most  of  the  time. 
Rainfall  was  well  below  average,  especially  in  western  and 
southern parts of the country. Yield formation of grain maize 
and sunflower was negatively affected by heat and water stress; 
consequently, our yield forecasts were revised downwards.

recorded  until  early  September  in  the  southern  regions 
and  along  the  Hungarian  border.  In  contrast,  the  central 
regions  experienced  near-average 
and  north-eastern 
precipitation.

From  the  beginning  of  August,  long  significantly  warmer-
than-usual  periods  were  interspersed  with  short  breaks 
of  milder  spells,  resulting  in  an  overall  positive  thermal 
anomaly  of  1-3  °C.  Daily  maximum  temperatures  reached 
35-38 °C during the hottest days. There were 20-30 hot days 
(Tmax > 30 °C) in the agricultural areas (lowlands), exceeding 
the  normal  frequency  by  10-15  days.  The  southern  part  of 
Romania, in particular, was exceptionally hot.

After the rains of early August, rainfall tendency decreased 
dramatically  and  hardly  any  precipitation  (<  10  mm)  was 

Hot  weather  accelerated  the  phenological  development  of 
summer  crops,  shortening  the  period  of  yield  formation; 
this  is  likely  to  result  in  an  early  harvest.  Combined  with 
limited  water  availability,  according  to  our  models,  leaf 
area  decreased  sharply  and  biomass  accumulation  was 
negatively  compromised,  directly  affecting  yield  formation. 
Consequently,  our  yield  forecasts  for  grain  maize  and 
sunflowers were revised downwards. Our yield forecasts for 
sugar  beet  and  potatoes  were  maintained,  since  the  most 
important  cultivation  regions  for  these  crops  are  in  central, 
northern and north-eastern Romania.

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

Bulgaria
Yield outlook lowered due to hot and dry weather

Since  early  August,  above-average 
temperatures  and 
severe  rainfall  deficits  have  become  typical  across  Bulgaria, 
resulting  in  early  canopy  senescence  and  reduced  biomass 
accumulation. The previous yield forecast for grain maize and 
sunflower was revised downwards.

Except for two short periods around 5 August and 15 August, 
significantly warmer-than-usual thermal conditions prevailed 
in  Bulgaria,  with  a  positive  thermal  anomaly  of  1-3  °C. 
The  number  of  hot  days  (Tmax  >  30  °C)  exceeded  the  usual 
incidence  by  10-15  days.  After  abundant  rainfalls  during 
late July and very early August, dry weather prevailed. No or 
hardly  any  precipitation  (0-5  mm)  was  measured.  Only  the 

areas along the southern and eastern border received some 
rain (10-40 mm).

Crop  development  accelerated  significantly,  shortening  the 
storage  organ  formation  period.  The  quick  senescence  of 
leaves  reduced  photosynthetic  activity.  Soil  moisture  also 
decreased  sharply  and  biomass  accumulation  was  further 
compromised, 
lowering  yield  expectations.  Normalised 
difference  vegetation  index  images  also  present  a  sharp 
decrease,  underpinning  the  decreased  yield  outlook.  Our 
yield forecasts for grain maize and sunflower were revised 
downwards, but still correspond to yield trends and exceed 
the averages for the last 5 years.

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

19

Czechia, Austria and Slovakia
Beneficial rainfall slightly improved the yield outlook for summer crops

Rainfall  conditions  during  the  analysis  period  generally 
improved  growing  conditions  for  summer  crops  for  most  of 
Austria, Czechia and Slovakia. The exception is north-western 
Czechia,  where  persistent  drought  conditions  are  negatively 
affecting crop growth.

Since the beginning of August, the period of analysis has been 
warmer  than  usual,  especially  due  to  heatwave  events  that 
occurred at the beginning and end of August. The maximum 
observed temperatures reached 34 °C (regionally even 36 °C). 
The  heatwaves  did  not  affect  crops,  as  these  were  already 
past the most sensitive growth stages. North-western Czechia 
experienced  a  rainfall  deficit,  deepening  drought  conditions 
which  have  persisted  since  early  spring.  On  the  other  hand, 
eastern  Czechia,  Slovakia,  and  western  and  north-eastern 

Austria received above-seasonal rainfall cumulates during the 
period of analysis.

Slovakia,  Czechia  and  Austria  experienced  the  warmest  or 
second-warmest  summer  on  our  records.  Consequently,  the 
development stage of summer crops is advanced; grain maize 
has already reached (or is very close to) physiological maturity. 
The  lack  of  rainfall  in  north-western  Czechia  deepened  the 
soil  moisture  deficit,  which  has  negatively  affected  summer 
crops  in  the  region.  Nevertheless,  summer  crops  elsewhere 
benefited  from  rainfall,  reducing  the  soil  moisture  deficit 
that  had  been  regionally  accumulating  since  the  beginning 
of  summer.  Consequently,  summer  crop  yields  were  revised 
slightly upwards, generally resulting in an outlook close to the 
5-year average.

Denmark and Sweden
Rainy weather is hampering the harvest of winter cereals, but yields remain high

Substantial  rainfall  was  observed  for  the  period  of  analysis. 
The  rain  came  when  most  of  the  winter  and  spring  cereals 
were reaching maturity and nearing harvesting time. No losses 
due to delays in harvest are expected; thus, yield forecasts are 
remaining largely above average for all crops.

Rainfall  was  substantially  above  average  for  most  parts  of 
Denmark  and  Sweden  during  the  period  of  analysis.  Most 
of  Denmark  —  except  Sjælland,  which  experienced  average 
rainfall conditions — received over 30 % more than the usual 
amount  of  rain.  In  Sweden,  a  rain  surplus  of  30  %  above 
average was recorded in the west. Eastern regions had slightly 
less  rain,  while  Kalmar  län  and  Gotlands  län  received  less 

than  70  %  of  expected  levels.  Temperatures  were  average, 
except for the last dekad of August, which was 3-4 °C above 
seasonal  values.  Radiation  for  the  period  of  analysis  was 
close to or slightly above average. A deficit observed during 
the second dekad of August was largely compensated during 
the  last  dekad  of  August.  The  substantial  rainfall  delayed 
part  of  the  winter  cereal  harvest  and  is  expected  to  affect 
quality. Nevertheless, yields are expected to be close to the 
record  high.  Summer  crops  benefited  from  the  rainfall,  but 
the wet conditions increased disease pressure, particularly for 
potatoes. Nevertheless, the yield of summer crops, particularly 
sugar  beet  and  potatoes,  is  expected  to  be  back  to  normal 
levels after last year’s drought that affected both countries.

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Finland
Good harvest for winter cereals

The  cereal  harvest  is  nearly  completed  in  Finland,  with 
good results. Overall, it has been a good season for winter 
and  spring  crops  in  the  Baltics,  but  with  below-average 
yield  expectations  in  Lithuania  for  cereals,  sugar  beet  and 
potatoes.

The review period started with below-average temperatures, 
which notably increased from mid August to above the LTA; 
maximum  values  at  the  end  of  August  reached  25  °C  in 
Finland and 29 °C in Lithuania.

The  cereal  harvest  has  been  concluded  in  the  Baltic  states. 
Winter drilling has started and the earliest rapeseed crops had 
already emerged at the end of August in Lithuania. Harvesting 
is  still  underway  in  Finland,  with  particularly  good  yield 
expectations for winter cereals and average protein values for 
wheat.  The  rapeseed  harvest  is  estimated  to  be  lower  than 
average in Finland, as the crops were affected by drought and 
pests. Potato harvesting has not started yet, apart from early 
potatoes. In Lithuania, according to our models, continued dry 
conditions negatively affected potato and sugar beet growth.

Rainfall was below average in the Baltic states and in south-
eastern Finland, but above average in western Finland.

Our  yield  forecasts  remain  practically  unchanged,  with  the 
exception  of  the  forecasts  for  sugar  beet  and  potatoes  in 
Lithuania, which were revised downwards.

Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands
Continued mediocre yield outlook for summer crops

Predominantly  mild  temperatures  and  fair  amounts  of 
precipitation were insufficient to improve the yield outlook for 
summer crops. Soil moisture levels are still very low in most 
crop-producing regions.

Temperatures  fluctuated  mostly  close  to  the  LTA  during 
the  review  period,  with  the  exception  of  a  short,  unusually 
late  heatwave  at  the  end  of  August,  and  several  days  with 
distinctly  colder-than-usual  temperatures  in  the  first  dekad 
of September. Rainfall was somewhat below average in most 
regions, with the largest deficits in north-western Belgium.

but not sufficiently so to improve the overall mediocre yield 
outlook  of  sugar  beet,  potatoes,  grain  maize  and  green 
maize.  In  areas  where  water  supply  has  been  adequate, 
crops continue in good condition. In areas where this was not 
the  case,  yield  expectations  continue  to  be  very  low.  As  the 
climatic water balance continued to be negative, and most of 
the rainfall during the review period occurred during the first 
half  of  August,  soil  moisture  levels  are  well  below  the  LTA. 
This  is  most  distinctly  so  in  western  and  southern  Belgium, 
and  could  further  negatively  impact  (albeit  only  a  limited 
impact at this advanced stage of the season) yield potentials.

These conditions were favourable for crops — the heatwave 
was too short and too weak to cause significant damage — 

Our yield forecasts remain essentially unchanged, close to the 
5-year average.

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

21

Greece and Cyprus
Grain maize yield potential weakened

High  temperatures  and  scarce  rainfall  prevailed  throughout 
the review period. The phenological development of summer 
crops  became  advanced  and  harvesting  started  early.  Yield 
expectations for summer crops have been reduced.

Thráki) received mentionable (> 15 mm) rainfall. Dry weather 
conditions and accelerated summer crop development allowed 
for an early start to the harvest campaign for summer crops.

Temperatures during the review period fluctuated mostly above 
the average. In several regions, this 1 August to 10 September 
period was the hottest or one of the hottest in our weather archive 
(since  1979).  Particularly  high  temperatures  were  recorded 
in  northern  and  eastern  regions  (e.g.  Kentrikí  Makedonía  and 
Thessalía), where maximum temperatures reached 38-41 °C on 
the  hottest  days.  In  contrast,  south-eastern  areas  experienced 
mostly near-average thermal conditions.

Hot  weather  was  accompanied  by  sparse  precipitation.  Only 
the  north-eastern  territories  (e.g.  Anatolikí  Makedonía  kai 

Irrigation  partially  mitigated  the  negative  effect  of  the  heat 
stress on summer crops, but even with optimal water supply, 
biomass accumulation was negatively impacted and remains 
below  average.  Remote  sensing  images  (fAPAR)  confirm 
weaker-than-usual crop status. The yield forecast for summer 
crops (except rice) was revised downwards and is now below 
the 5-year average.

Cyprus  also  experienced  a  hot  and  dry  period,  with  well-
above-average  temperatures  prevailing.  Since  the  beginning 
of August, hardly any precipitation has been recorded, but this 
is normal for Cyprus in late summer.

Croatia and Slovenia
Yield outlook for summer crops above 5-year average

Heatwaves in August accelerated summer crop development 
and  increased  leaf  senescence.  These  effects  were  most 
pronounced  in  Croatia.  Nevertheless,  the  summer  crop  yield 
outlook generally remains above the 5-year average.

With heatwave events occurring at the beginning and end of 
August,  the  analysis  period  was  substantially  warmer  than 
usual.  Maximum  temperatures  reached  up  to  36  °C  (locally 
in eastern and coastal parts of Croatia up to 40 °C). Rainfall 
was above average in Slovenia and average in Croatia, except 
in central-northern Croatia where a rain deficit was recorded.

accelerated 

Higher-than-usual 
the 
temperatures 
development  of  summer  crops.  Grain  maize  has  reached 
or  is  very  close  to  reaching  physiological  maturity.  High 
temperatures  during  the  heatwave  events  accelerated 
leaf  senescence,  which  was  more  pronounced  in  Croatia 
where the highest temperatures were recorded. The grain 
maize  yield  forecast  has  therefore  been  revised  slightly 
downwards  in  Croatia,  but  it  still  remains  well  above  the 
5-year  average.  In  Slovenia,  the  yield  forecast  for  grain 
maize has been revised slightly upwards, due to beneficial 
rainfall during the analysis period.

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

4.2.  European Union — rice-producing countries

Average forecast for the main rice-producing countries

The seasonal yield forecasts for the main European rice-produc-
ing countries (Italy and Spain) are in line with the average for the 
past 5 years. Performance in other countries is mixed. In France, 
below-average temperatures at the beginning of the season as 
well as poor stands caused by unfavourable windy weather neg-

atively  impacted  rice  productivity,  leading  to  a  below-average 
(−  11  %)  forecast.  In  Greece,  our  yield  forecast  is  well  above 
average  (+  9.8  %)  thanks  to  favourable  weather  conditions 
throughout the season. Overall, our yield forecast at EU level is 
1 % above the 5-year average and 0.6 % below last year’s level.

Italy
Average rice season

Despite initial concerns around sowing and early development, 
as described in the June issue of the bulletin, the 2019 rice 
campaign in Italy performed at an average level, in terms of 
both phenological response and biomass accumulation. In the 
provinces of Pavia, Vercelli and Novara (accounting for almost 
80  %  of  national  rice  production),  an  analysis  of  satellite-
based fAPAR profiles indicates crop recovery at the beginning 
of July, triggered by high temperatures (almost + 5 °C above 
the  LTA).  Flowering  occurred  between  the  end  of  July  and 
in the first 10 days of August, which corresponds to around 

average timing. Rice crops are now at the end of the grain-
filling phase or at the beginning of the ripening phase. Biomass 
accumulation  is  above  average  in  all  three  rice-producing 
provinces. The rice campaign in the north-eastern rice districts 
of Italy (Ferrara and Verona, accounting for almost 2.5 % of 
national  production)  was  more  seriously  hampered  in  May 
and  June,  resulting  in  below-average  yields.  On  balance,  at 
national level, an average campaign was observed. No biotic 
stress or risks are observed. Our yield forecast is in line with 
the 5-year average.

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

23

Spain and Portugal
Crops in fair condition overall

Temperatures  in  the  Iberian  peninsula  have  been  warmer 
than  usual  in  the  south  and  east.  Rainfall  was  very  low  or 
not registered at all in the south throughout the rice-growing 
period.  Nevertheless,  heat  damage  has  been  limited  and 
water supply has generally been sufficient.

High temperatures, with daily maxima near to or above 35 °C, 
in  Badajoz,  Cáceres  and  Oeste  in  the  last  two  dekads  of 
August may have generated spikelet sterility.

Ripening is advanced in the rice areas of northern and eastern 
Spain  and  has  started  in  early  September  in  the  southern 
parts of Andalucía, Extremadura and Baixo Alentejo. In all of 
these regions, crops are in good condition.

to  sustain  cultivation  this  year.  Rice-cultivated  fields  in  the 
Cáceres  region  (central-western  Spain)  may  have  more 
heterogeneous yields and less area under production.

A crop delay of about one or two dekads, which has accumulated 
in the eastern irrigated areas of Spain (Comunidad Valenciana, 
Cataluña and Aragón) since mid June, is still persisting.

In  Portugal,  rice  conditions  are  around  average.  Fields  in 
southern regions present more yield variability than in central 
parts  of  the  country.  Southern  Portugal  had  early  delays 
in  sowing  due  to  a  cold  spell  at  the  end  of  April;  this  may 
have resulted in delays to development and in forecast yield 
heterogeneity.

Although the hot and dry conditions resulted in high demand 
(and  little  supply)  for  water  reservoirs,  the  availability  of 
irrigation  water  for  rice  crops  has  generally  been  sufficient 

The yield outlook for Spain is above the 5-year average but 
below the level of last year. In Portugal, however, it is slightly 
below the 5-year average but higher than last year.

Greece
Above-average yield expectations

Rice  districts  in  Thessaloníki  and  Imathía  benefited  from  very 
favourable  conditions  throughout  the  season.  Until  10  July, 
warm temperatures (on average 2-3 °C above the LTA) and fairly 
well-distributed rainfall adequately sustained crop growth and 
crop development during stem-elongation and booting phases. 
Mild temperatures during the second and third dekads of July 
(mostly  2  °C  below  the  LTA)  were  beneficial  to  crop  anthesis 

and  flowering,  with  no  risk  of  heat-induced  spikelet  sterility. 
From the beginning of August, concurrent with grain filling and 
also during ripening, temperatures rose again to 2-3 °C above 
the  LTA.  The  positive  expectations  for  rice  in  Greece  are  also 
supported  by  the  interpretation  of  remote  sensing  indicators, 
which  show  a  more  extended  crop-heading  phase  than  usual. 
Our yield forecast for rice in Greece is above the 5-year average.

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

France
Below-average yield outlook due to a bad start to the season

Below-average temperatures until 20 May hampered growth 
of the earliest sown rice, while very windy weather negatively 
impacted  plant  density  in  part  of  the  fields.  The  rest  of  the 
season  was  favourable,  with  temperatures  above  average, 
particularly during the heatwave at the end of June. This had 
no impact on rice growth, as japonica rice is most sensitive to 
heat  stress  around  flowering,  which  usually  happens  in  July 

or  August  depending  on  sowing  dates.  Global  radiation  was 
also above average and beneficial for biomass accumulation. 
However,  these  favourable  conditions  were  insufficient  to 
compensate  for  the  negative  effects  on  yield  potentials 
caused by lower and heterogeneous plant density at the start 
of the season, and our yield forecast was revised downwards 
to below the 5-year average.

Bulgaria
Positive yield outlook

Until  early  July,  warmer-than-usual  weather  conditions 
supported  vegetative  crop  growth  in  the  main  rice-producing 
districts  of  Bulgaria  (Plovdiv,  Pazardzhik  and  Stara  Zagora). 
During  the  flowering  phase  of  rice  in  July,  moderate  daily 
temperatures  prevailed,  avoiding  potential  causes  of  abiotic 
stress to rice. A frequent incidence of rainy days occurring in 

June led to moderate biotic pressure: an increment of days with 
a high risk of infection were depicted by our model during this 
period.  Remote  sensing  indicators  registered  above-average 
cumulates of biomass and a similar course as the previous year 
through flowering and grain-filling periods. The yield forecast is 
above the 5-year average and similar to last year.

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

25

Hungary and Romania
Cold-induced spikelet sterility reduced rice yield expectations

Until  late  May,  colder-than-usual  conditions  prevailed  in 
Hungary  and  Romania,  hampering  the  early  growth  and 
development  of  rice,  which  is  a  thermophile  crop.  From 
the  second  dekad  of  June,  significantly  above-average 
temperatures  (including  several  hot  days  with  Tmax >  30  °C) 
accelerated crop development to near average. In early July, 
temperatures  dropped,  eliminating  the  risk  of  heat  damage 
to flowering, but to such an extent that cold-induced spikelet 
sterility  may  have  occurred.  Moreover,  this  period  coincided 
with some rainfall events causing increased pest and disease 
pressure.

the yield-formation period. According to our model simulations, 
despite the slow start to the growing season, potential biomass 
accumulation reached above-average levels in late August in 
Hungary.  In  south-eastern  Romania,  biotic  and  abiotic  stress 
limited  biomass;  storage  organ  accumulation  also  remained 
below  the  levels  of  previous  years  due  to  cold  temperature 
conditions observed at the beginning of the growing season. 
Nevertheless,  an  analysis  of  satellite  imagery  indicates 
adequate leaf area expansion and photosynthetic activity for 
rice in both countries in July and early August.

Since the third dekad of July, hot weather has dominated again, 
resulting in accelerated crop development and a shortening of 

On  balance,  considering  biotic  and  abiotic  stresses  for  the 
main  rice-producing  regions,  our  yield  forecast  for  both 
countries was maintained in line with the historical trend.

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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

4.3.  Black Sea area

Ukraine
A positive yield outlook, only slightly lowered for grain maize

The  rain  deficit  observed  since  June  in  central  Ukraine  (the 
main  grain  maize-producing  region)  persisted.  Grain  maize 
yield,  despite  being  forecast  to  be  well  above  the  5-year 
average,  is  slightly  down  compared  to  last  year.  Sunflower, 
more  tolerant  to  drought,  benefited  from  favourable 
conditions,  and  soybean  benefited  from  good  conditions  in 
western oblasts.

The  weather  was  dry  in  western  and  central  oblasts,  with 
cumulative rainfall during the period of analysis being 50 % 
below  the  usual  amount  in  central  Ukraine,  thus  extending 
the  water  deficit  observed  since  June.  In  contrast,  southern 
and eastern oblasts received more rainfall than usual due to 
downpours  at  the  beginning  of  August.  Temperatures  were 
substantially lower than usual during the first dekad of August, 
whereas  warmer-than-usual  weather  was  observed  during 
the last dekad of August and the beginning of September. The 

last  two  dekads  of  the  period  of  analysis  have  been  sunny, 
with above-average radiation.

Most of the rain deficit was centred on the main producing 
regions  for  grain  maize,  where  some  sowing  had  been 
delayed,  thus  further  exposing  the  plants  to  the  dry 
conditions.  The  yield  forecast  for  grain  maize  was  revised 
slightly  downwards  but  remains  well  above  the  5-year 
average,  albeit  down  compared  with  last  year.  Soybean 
yields  are  expected  to  be  higher  than  the  5-year  average 
in western oblasts, slightly impacted by the dry conditions 
in  central  Ukraine,  and  at  an  exceptionally  high  level  for 
irrigated  soybean  in  Khersons’ka.  The  yield  forecast  for 
sunflower  is  close  to  the  record,  thanks  to  a  favourable 
start to the season and no impact from the dry conditions 
in  central  Ukraine  due  to  the  crop’s  tolerance  to  drought, 
leading to very high yields in central Ukraine.

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

27

Turkey
Positive outlook for summer crops

Summer  crop  flowering  and  grain  filling  occurred  in  August 
under  favourable  conditions.  Crops  fully  recovered  from 
the  growth  delay  incurred  in  May.  Irrigation  mitigated  hot 
temperatures, allowing high growth rates. Maize and soybean 
crops are now at ripening phase, while harvesting has started 
for sugar beet.

The review period (1 August-10 September) was characterised 
by  warm  temperature  conditions  of  1-3  °C  above  the  LTA. 
The  highest  temperature  anomalies  occurred  in  September. 
Temperature profiles sustained crop needs well during flowering 
and grain-filling stages in both south-eastern (Mardin, Şanlıurfa 
and Gaziantep) and Mediterranean (Hatay, Adana and Antalya) 

agricultural  areas.  Irrigation  was  fundamental  to  maintain 
adequate soil moisture levels, as precipitation was close to zero 
throughout the review period in most regions (as usual for this 
period of the year). An exceptional rainfall event (50-55 mm) 
was observed in Sakarya and Kocaeli districts (north-western 
Turkey)  on  17  August.  The  event  is  likely  to  have  negatively 
impacted green maize, which here represents almost 10 % of 
the country’s production. Crop model simulations and remote 
sensing  analysis  (fAPAR)  indicate  above-average  biomass 
accumulation  for  soybean  and  grain  maize  (e.g.  in  Adana, 
which is responsible for 60 % of soybean production and 15 % 
of grain maize production in Turkey). Our forecasts for all the 
summer crops are above the 5-year average.

28

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

4.4.  European Russia and Belarus

European Russia
Difficult harvesting conditions for winter and spring cereals

Cold and rainy weather delayed the harvest in the first half of 
August in large parts of European Russia. The yield expectations 
for spring barley are above average. Grain maize benefited from 
the rains in July and August; yield expectations are on trend level 
and better than 1 year ago.

okrugs,  likely  causing  harvesting  losses.  Weather  conditions 
became significantly drier from the last dekad of August, allowing 
harvesting operations to accelerate, except in the northern and 
easternmost regions of Russia as well as some areas north of 
the Caucasus Mountains.

In the western half of European Russia, temperatures fluctuated 
around the average, while eastern regions were predominantly 
1-2  °C  colder  than  usual.  Thermal  conditions  varied  strongly, 
with alternating periods of quite cold and very warm periods. In 
particular, the first half of August was exceptionally cold.

Precipitation mostly reached or exceeded the average in Russia, 
but  rainfall  was  scarce  in  a  considerable  part  of  the  Southern 
okrug, Saratovskaya oblast in Volga okrug, and a large area of 
the Central Black Earth Region. Until mid August, frequent rains, 
low  temperatures,  high  air  humidity  and  overly  wet  top-soil 
conditions  hampered  the  harvest  of  winter  and  spring  cereals 
in  numerous  regions  of  the  Central,  Volga  and  North-Western 

Simulated  biomass  accumulation  for  spring  barley  presents 
near-average or above-average levels in the main eastern and 
northern production areas, thanks to adequate water supply. The 
situation  is  less  favourable  in  the  western  part  of  the  Central 
okrug  and  in  the  southern  regions  of  Russia.  The  overall  yield 
outlook for spring barley is above average.

In  southern  regions,  soil  moisture  content  was  below  optimal 
for  grain  maize  during  the  vegetative  stage.  Beneficial  rains 
during the early grain-filling stage improved crop water supply 
and  facilitated  yield  formation.  In  addition,  milder  weather 
conditions lengthened the grain-filling period. Grain maize yield 
expectations are significantly better than last year.

Belarus
Positive outlook for grain maize

Good  conditions  for  the  final  stages  of  the  grain  maize 
season.

average values in some parts of south-western and south-
eastern regions.

Temperatures  oscillated  around  the  LTA  during  the  period 
of  analysis.  Precipitation  was  significantly  above  average 
in the north-eastern part of the country (especially in the 
Vitebsk  region)  and  below  average  along  the  south-west 
and  south-east  borders.  Rainfall  was  concentrated  during 
the  first  two  dekads  of  August.  The  spatial  patterns  of 
rainfall were reflected in soil moisture levels that reached 
above-average  values  in  north-eastern  areas,  and  below-

Weather  conditions  were  favourable  for  the  final  stages  of 
grain  maize  development.  These  conditions  also  favoured 
ongoing fieldwork, including the sowing of winter crops. Grain 
maize reached maturity approximately 10 days ahead of the 
usual time. Nevertheless, the condition of the crop is generally 
good, with simulated biomass and storage organ accumulation 
above average. Hence, our grain maize forecast remains above 
the 5-year average.

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

29

5.  Crop yield forecasts

TOTAL BARLEY (t/ha)

Country

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

Country

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

Avg 
5yrs
4.86
5.62
8.20
4.22
1.43
5.38
6.77
5.53
3.38
2.87
3.63
6.37
2.61
4.52
4.85
7.89
3.92
3.48
-
3.24
-
6.96
3.67
2.22
3.84
4.59
4.64
4.67
6.18

Avg 
5yrs
4.16
4.53
-
-
-
5.28
5.38
5.36
3.38
2.96
3.63
6.01
-
-
3.87
7.22
-
3.46
-
3.24
-
6.57
3.48
-
2.65
4.53
-
4.47
5.66

2018

4.60
4.99
7.78
4.25
1.81
4.95
5.77
4.38
2.49
3.51
3.30
6.33
2.64
4.53
4.67
6.61
4.05
2.74
-
2.58
-
6.86
3.12
2.48
4.60
3.04
4.20
3.98
5.72

MARS 2019 
forecasts
4.92
5.86
9.00
4.67
2.25
5.13
6.78
5.94
3.40
2.58
3.64
6.52
2.79
4.70
5.04
8.27
4.11
2.90
-
3.23
-
7.21
3.52
2.28
4.29
5.05
4.97
4.57
6.24

%19/5yrs %19/18

+1.1
+4.3
+9.7
+11
+58
-4.6
+0.1
+7.3
+0.5
-10
+0.2
+2.3
+7.0
+4.0
+3.9
+4.9
+5.0
-17
-
-0.3
-
+3.6
-4.1
+2.6
+12
+10
+7.0
-2.1
+1.0

+6.9
+17
+16
+9.8
+24
+3.8
+18
+35
+36
-26
+10
+2.9
+5.5
+3.6
+8.0
+25
+1.6
+5.6
-
+25
-
+5.1
+13
-8.1
-6.6
+66
+19
+15
+9.0

SPRING BARLEY (t/ha)

2018

3.99
3.44
-
-
-
4.93
4.95
4.28
2.49
3.59
3.30
6.27
-
-
2.69
5.62
-
2.72
-
2.58
-
6.58
2.95
-
2.56
3.01
-
3.63
5.17

MARS 2019 
forecasts
4.10
4.43
-
-
-
4.90
5.43
5.81
3.40
2.63
3.64
6.30
-
-
3.96
7.35
-
2.77
-
3.23
-
6.64
3.25
-
2.77
4.97
-
4.22
5.67

%19/5yrs %19/18

-1.6
-2.1
-
-
-
-7.2
+1.1
+8.4
+0.5
-11
+0.2
+4.8
-
-
+2.5
+1.9
-
-20
-
-0.3
-
+1.0
-6.7
-
+4.6
+9.8
-
-5.7
+0.2

+2.8
+29
-
-
-
-0.7
+10
+36
+36
-27
+10
+0.4
-
-
+47
+31
-
+1.9
-
+25
-
+1.0
+10
-
+8.2
+65
-
+16
+10

30

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

Country

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

Country

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

Avg 
5yrs
7.62
10.2
10.5
6.54
-
7.39
9.62
-
-
11.2
-
9.17
10.4
7.68
7.46
-
10.3
6.05
-
-
-
9.92
6.31
8.33
5.18
-
8.80
6.93
-

Avg 
5yrs
2.21
2.64
-
2.29
-
2.40
2.07
-
-
1.16
-
2.32
2.53
2.88
2.82
-
2.32
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.33
-
-
2.67
-

GRAIN MAIZE (t/ha)

MARS 2019 
forecasts
7.63
10.2
10.4
6.96
-
7.16
8.87
-
-
10.7
-
8.05
10.3
8.32
7.94
-
8.70
6.21
-
-
-
9.48
5.18
8.47
6.66
-
9.16
6.77
-

%19/5yrs %19/18

+0.2
+0.4
-0.4
+6.5
-
-3.1
-7.8
-
-
-5.0
-
-12
-1.0
+8.4
+6.4
-
-15
+2.5
-
-
-
-4.5
-18
+1.7
+29
-
+4.0
-2.4
-

-8.6
+0.5
+26
-11
-
+20
+9.0
-
-
-1.7
-
-9.1
+4.2
-8.8
-5.9
-
-12
-5.1
-
-
-
+22
-14
+2.8
-14
-
-3.1
-20
-

SUNFLOWER (t/ha)

MARS 2019 
forecasts
2.29
2.68
-
2.41
-
2.39
1.88
-
-
1.17
-
2.12
2.58
2.91
3.06
-
2.41
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.49
-
-
2.54
-

%19/5yrs %19/18

+3.8
+1.4
-
+5.2
-
-0.2
-9.5
-
-
+0.8
-
-8.4
+1.8
+1.0
+8.2
-
+3.9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
+6.6
-
-
-4.6
-

-5.3
-4.6
-
-1.3
-
+1.5
+3.0
-
-
-13
-
-6.2
+6.1
-2.7
+3.2
-
+0.5
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-11
-
-
-13
-

2018

8.35
10.2
8.23
7.82
-
5.98
8.14
-
-
10.8
-
8.86
9.84
9.13
8.44
-
9.87
6.54
-
-
-
7.76
5.99
8.24
7.79
-
9.45
8.49
-

2018

2.42
2.80
-
2.44
-
2.36
1.82
-
-
1.34
-
2.26
2.43
2.99
2.96
-
2.40
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.80
-
-
2.93
-

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

31

Country

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

Country

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

Avg 
5yrs
2.93
2.78
-
-
-
2.09
-
-
-
-
-
2.70
-
2.71
2.56
-
3.59
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.37
-
-
2.19
-

Avg 
5yrs
41.4
45.9
41.6
22.3
-
35.0
42.8
36.8
28.4
39.7
-
41.6
18.8
36.9
28.5
50.5
52.4
29.8
46.9
31.0
-
41.8
44.0
38.3
27.3
-
46.5
29.4
-

%19/5yrs %19/18

SOYBEAN (t/ha)
MARS 2019 
forecasts
2.92
2.76
-
-
-
2.05
-
-
-
-
-
2.74
-
3.19
2.61
-
3.41
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.36
-
-
2.40
-

2018

2.99
2.73
-
-
-
1.66
-
-
-
-
-
2.60
-
3.19
2.83
-
3.49
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.75
-
-
2.31
-

-0.4
-0.6
-
-
-
-2.0
-
-
-
-
-
+1.6
-
+18
+2.3
-
-4.9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-0.5
-
-
+9.5
-

-2.3
+1.2
-
-
-
+24
-
-
-
-
-
+5.4
-
+0.0
-7.6
-
-2.2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-14
-
-
+3.8
-

 GREEN MAIZE (t/ha)

2018

37.9
45.3
34.3
25.5
-
29.8
35.3
35.2
30.7
40.5
-
40.3
22.0
40.1
31.0
49.7
52.0
28.3
42.4
31.3
-
38.6
42.6
36.2
30.9
-
47.9
32.5
-

MARS 2019 
forecasts
39.0
44.6
41.8
25.4
-
32.5
39.4
37.8
29.7
38.9
-
40.1
21.2
37.0
30.1
52.1
49.2
28.7
43.0
31.1
-
42.6
36.8
39.0
29.9
-
46.1
28.4
-

%19/5yrs %19/18

-5.8
-2.8
+0.6
+14
-
-7.1
-7.9
+2.8
+4.4
-1.9
-
-3.7
+13
+0.2
+5.7
+3.2
-6.0
-3.6
-8.3
+0.2
-
+1.7
-16
+1.9
+10
-
-0.7
-3.5
-

+2.9
-1.6
+22
-0.2
-
+8.9
+12
+7.6
-3.5
-4.0
-
-0.6
-3.6
-7.8
-2.8
+4.9
-5.3
+1.4
+1.5
-0.6
-
+10
-14
+7.7
-3.2
-
-3.7
-13
-

32

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

Country

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

Country

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

Avg 
5yrs
75.2
73.9
83.7
-
-
64.4
75.0
65.9
-
91.3
38.0
88.6
-
62.6
64.0
-
62.2
55.8
-
-
-
83.8
60.5
-
41.1
64.0
-
60.4
73.5

Avg 
5yrs
33.8
31.0
43.4
-
-
27.3
43.5
40.8
-
31.3
27.1
42.4
27.2
-
24.6
-
27.9
16.0
-
19.2
-
42.6
25.3
20.3
16.2
34.0
-
-
42.8

2018

69.2
68.8
82.8
-
-
57.5
63.3
61.5
-
86.7
36.3
81.6
-
54.8
59.3
-
64.0
57.2
-
-
-
76.4
59.9
-
38.5
55.3
-
59.9
69.3

2018

31.1
29.4
32.6
-
-
25.5
35.4
34.8
-
29.8
28.1
39.4
28.8
-
22.8
-
28.9
15.5
-
19.9
-
36.6
25.1
21.1
17.7
30.3
-
-
41.6

SUGAR BEETS (t/ha)

MARS 2019 
forecasts
72.2
70.7
82.0
-
-
61.4
74.2
69.2
-
88.5
40.5
81.2
-
67.4
63.8
-
58.2
51.6
-
-
-
85.0
55.2
-
44.1
64.3
-
59.1
74.8

%19/5yrs %19/18

-4.0
-4.3
-2.0
-
-
-4.6
-1.1
+4.9
-
-3.1
+6.7
-8.4
-
+7.6
-0.2
-
-6.5
-7.5
-
-
-
+1.5
-8.8
-
+7.4
+0.4
-
-2.1
+1.7

+4.3
+2.8
-1.0
-
-
+6.7
+17
+13
-
+2.1
+12
-0.5
-
+23
+7.6
-
-9.1
-9.7
-
-
-
+11
-7.9
-
+15
+16
-
-1.3
+7.9

%19/5yrs %19/18

POTATO (t/ha)
MARS 2019 
forecasts
32.8
28.1
42.0
-
-
23.5
39.1
43.0
-
30.8
27.1
40.2
28.3
-
25.3
-
28.3
15.4
-
19.5
-
41.9
24.1
20.7
15.4
34.8
-
-
43.3

-2.8
-9.6
-3.3
-
-
-14
-10
+5.4
-
-1.4
+0.1
-5.2
+3.9
-
+2.9
-
+1.7
-3.8
-
+1.8
-
-1.5
-5.0
+1.7
-5.2
+2.5
-
-
+1.1

+5.5
-4.5
+29
-
-
-7.9
+11
+24
-
+3.5
-3.3
+2.1
-1.9
-
+11
-
-2.0
-1.0
-
-2.0
-
+15
-4.3
-1.9
-13
+15
-
-
+4.0

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

33

Country

EU
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
FI
FR
GR
HR
HU
IE
IT
LT
LU
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SI
SK
UK

Avg 
5yrs
6.70
-
-
5.42
-
-
-
-
-
7.74
-
5.54
6.35
-
3.77
-
6.62
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.93
4.46
-
-
-
-

RICE (t/ha)
MARS 2019 
forecasts
6.76
-
-
5.76
-
-
-
-
-
7.81
-
4.92
6.98
-
3.94
-
6.63
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.89
5.10
-
-
-
-

2018

6.80
-
-
5.76
-
-
-
-
-
7.89
-
5.48
5.80
-
3.96
-
6.83
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.47
5.31
-
-
-
-

Belarus, Turkey and Ukraine

%19/5yrs %19/18

+1.0
-
-
+6.2
-
-
-
-
-
+1.0
-
-11
+9.8
-
+4.7
-
+0.1
-
-
-
-
-
-
-0.8
+14
-
-
-
-

-0.6
-
-
-0.0
-
-
-
-
-
-1.0
-
-10
+20
-
-0.4
-
-3.0
-
-
-
-
-
-
+7.6
-4.0
-
-
-
-

Country

BY
TR
UA

Notes: 

Sources: 

GRAIN MAIZE (t/ha)

Avg 
5yrs

5.22
9.34
6.37

2018

5.00
9.64
7.84

MARS 
2019 
forecasts
5.76
9.69
7.26

%19/5yrs %19/18

Country

+10
+3.8
+14

+15
+0.5
-7.4

BY
TR
UA

SOYBEAN (t/ha)

Avg 
5yrs

-
4.35
2.17

2018

-
4.26
2.58

MARS 
2019 
forecasts
-
4.57
2.52

%19/5yrs %19/18

-
+4.9
+16

-
+7.2
-2.2

 Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10 000 ha per country with sufficiently long and coherent yield-time series (for rice more 
than 1 000 ha per country).
 The yield forecasts for winter crops (soft wheat, durum wheat, winter barley, rye, triticale and rapeseed) have not been updated and 
are based on the forecasts reported in the August issue of the bulletin. The area data and subsequent production calculations for 
these crops have been updated. Any change — compared to August — in the yield forecast for these crops at EU level is due to 
changes in area of the respective crop at country level.
 EU 2014-2019 data come from DG Agriculture and Rural Development’s short-term Outlook data (dated August 2019, received on 
30.8.2019), the Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 22.8.2019) and the Early Estimates (last update: 15.11.2017).
 Non-EU 2014-2018 data come from the United States Department of Agriculture, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the 
Eurostat  Eurobase  (last  update:  22.8.2019),  the  State  Statistics  Service  of  Ukraine,  the  Food  and  Agriculture  Organisation  and 
Production, Supply and Distribution online.
2019 yield forecasts come from MARS crop yield forecasting system (output up to 10.9.2019).
 The  EU  figures  do  not  include  green  maize  forecasts  for  Sweden  and  the  United  Kingdom  since  recent  data  on  yields  were  not 
consistent.

 
 
 
 
34

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

6.  Atlas

Temperature regime

Precipitation

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

35

36

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

Climatic water balance

Weather events

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

37

38

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

Crop development stages and precocity

Relative soil moisture

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 27 No 9 — 16 September 2019

39

Rainfall and longest heatwave around ripening

Precipitation around harvesting

K
J
-
A
W
-
1
9
-
0
0
9
-
E
N
-
N

JRC MARS Bulletins 2019

Date 

Publication 

Reference

The current JRC MARS Bulletin — Crop monitoring in Europe 
is a JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST 
(JRC Unit D5 — Directorate for Sustainable Resources)

21 Jan
25 Feb
18 Mar

15 Apr

20 May

17 Jun

22 Jul

26 Aug

16 Sep

28 Oct

25 Nov

16 Dec

Agromet analysis
Agromet analysis
Agromet analysis, yield 
forecast
Agromet analysis, remote 
sensing, yield forecast, 
sowing conditions, pasture 
analysis
Agromet analysis, remote 
sensing, yield forecast, 
sowing update, pasture 
analysis
Agromet analysis, remote 
sensing, yield forecast, pas-
ture update, rice analysis
Agromet analysis, remote 
sensing, yield forecast,  
 harvesting conditions, 
 pasture update
Agromet analysis, remote 
sensing, yield forecast, 
pasture update, harvesting 
update
Agromet analysis, remote 
sensing, yield forecast, rice 
analysis, harvesting update
Agromet analysis, remote 
sensing, yield forecast, 
harvesting update, sowing 
conditions
Agromet analysis, harvest-
ing update, sowing update
Agromet analysis

Vol. 27 No 1
Vol. 27 No 2
Vol. 27 No 3

Vol. 27 No 4

Vol. 27 No 5

Vol. 27 No 6

Vol. 27 No 7

Vol. 27 No 8

Vol. 27 No 9

Vol. 27 No 10

Vol. 27 No 11

Vol. 27 No 12

JRC MARS Bulletins are available at
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/Bulletins
http://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu

Analysis and reports
B. Baruth, S. Bassu, A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, I. Cerrani, Y. Chemin, 
P. De Palma, D. Fumagalli, R. Lecerf, G. Manfron, L. Nisini, 
L. Panarello, G. Ronchetti, A. Toreti, M. van den Berg, Z. Zajac, 
A. Zucchini

Reporting support 
Seprotec, G. Mulhern, I. Biavetti

Edition 
M. van den Berg, M. van der Velde, B. Baruth, Y. Chemin

Data production
MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), 
VITO (BE)

Contact
JRC D5/MARS4CAST
JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu

Legal notice
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of 
the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of 
this publication.

Disclaimer
The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and 
are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily 
reflect the official European Commission position.  

Technical note
The long-term average used within this bulletin as a reference is 
based on an archive of data covering 1979-2018.

Mission statement: as the science and knowledge service of the 
European Commission, the Joint Research Centre’s mission is to 
support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the 
whole policy cycle.

ISSN  Print  2443-826X

ISSN  PDF  2443-8278