Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide : introduction to the Normandy index : in-depth analysis.
Date: 2019-07-15
Institutions: Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services
Subjects: climate change policy, common security and defence policy, democracy, development policy, energy supply, establishment of peace, information security, international security, organised crime, peace, peacekeeping, terrorism, the EU's international role

Mapping 
threats to peace 
and democracy 
worldwide 
Introduction to the 
Normandy Index 

IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS 

EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service 

Members' Research Service 
PE 637.946 – May 2019 

EN 

The 'Normandy Index' aims to measure the level of conflict in the world. It is to be presented for the 
first  time  on  the  occasion  of  the  Normandy  Global  Peace  Forum  in  June  2019,  as  a  result  of  the 
partnership between the European Parliament and the region of Normandy. The Index has been 
designed and prepared by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) and developed by 
the Institute for Economics and Peace. This paper sets out the initial findings of the 2019 exercise, 
and explains how the index can be used to compare peace – defined on the basis of a given country's 
performance  against  a  range  of  predetermined  threats  –  across  countries  and  regions.  It  is 
complemented by 25 individual country case studies, derived from the Index. 

AUTHOR(S) 

Editors: Étienne Bassot and Monika Nogaj 

Authors: Elena Lazarou and Philippe Perchoc, Members' Research Service 

Graphics by Nadejda Kresnichka-Nikolchova 

This  paper  has  been  drawn  up  by  the  Members'  Research  Service,  within  the  Directorate-General  for 
Parliamentary  Research  Services  (EPRS)  of  the  Secretariat  of  the  European Parliament.  The  underlying  data 
were supplied by the Institute for Economics and Peace. 

To contact the authors, please email: eprs@ep.europa.eu 

LINGUISTIC VERSIONS 

Original: EN 

Translations: DE, FR 

Manuscript completed in May 2019. 

DISCLAIMER AND COPYRIGHT 

This  document  is  prepared  for,  and  addressed  to,  the  Members  and  staff  of  the  European  Parliament  as 
background  material  to  assist  them  in  their  parliamentary  work.  The  content  of  the  document  is  the  sole 
responsibility of its author(s) and any opinions expressed herein should not be taken to represent an official 
position of the Parliament. 

Reproduction  and  translation  for  non-commercial  purposes  are  authorised,  provided  the  source  is 
acknowledged and the European Parliament is given prior notice and sent a copy. 

Brussels © European Union, 2019. 

Photo credits: © peshkov / Fotolia. 

PE 637.946 
ISBN: 978-92-846-4897-9 
DOI:10.2861/156107 
CAT: QA-04-19-443-EN-N 

eprs@ep.europa.eu  
http://www.eprs.ep.parl.union.eu (intranet) 
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank (internet) 
http://epthinktank.eu (blog) 

Foreword 

Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

This  year  marks  the  centenary  of  the  Treaty  of  Versailles,  the 
treaty  which  formally  ended  the  First  World  War.  During  these 
hundred years Europe has witnessed a devastating second world 
war, but it has also been the stage for one of the most important 
achievements  of  democratic  peace:  the  ever  closer  union 
between  28  European  states  guided  by  the  same  values  –  the 
values that underpin lasting peace.  

But  peace  is  not  a  given  or  a  constant,  especially  when  one 
considers  the  challenging  nature  of  emerging  threats  and 
shifting  geopolitics  today.  In  several  parts  of  the  world  peace, 
security and stability are not part of the reality of citizens. Climate 
change, terrorism, cyber-attacks, the proliferation of weapons of 
mass destruction, poverty and transborder crime are only some 
of the many factors that disrupt peace, at times leading to violent 
and deadly conflicts in parts of the world.  

As early as its inception, the EU’s foreign policy, the CFSP, made the preservation of peace and the 
strengthening of international security through the EU’s global action, two of its key goals. Today, 
public opinion polls consistently show us that our citizens expect the EU to make its voice heard and 
implement its actions at global level. Moreover, they expect the EU to be a stronger actor for peace 
and security. 

In order to achieve this, to be an effective global actor, it is indispensable to better understand the 
threats which challenge global peace so as to identify ways to act preventively and to support the 
regions and countries that are most threatened, by fostering resilience. This is a key element of the 
Global  Strategy,  which  refers  to  the  capacity  of  states  and  societies  to  withstand,  adapt  to,  and 
recover  quickly  from  stresses  and  shocks.  To  identify  and  understand  those  threats  we  need 
information; and we need data to support the elaboration of strategy. In a world which is constantly 
in flux, the Normandy Index is an additional tool allowing us to evaluate both traditional and new 
types of threats to peace, and to guide our actions based on facts and data. It is only one of many 
examples of how critical evidence-based research is for policy-makers and legislators.  

As I have said before, the EU is a story of solid and lasting peace, and of democracy and freedom. 
Through its external action, the EU aims to make peace a global story. And every tool we can have 
in  this  process  is  a  tool  for  the  EU  and  for  the  world.  Through  the  Lisbon  Treaty,  the  European 
Parliament  has  been  empowered  as  an  actor  in  the  EU’s  foreign  policy.  Through  legislation, 
parliamentary  diplomacy,  oversight  and  its  own  initiatives,  the  Parliament  will  continue  to  work 
towards a more peaceful, more secure and more prosperous world.  

Antonio Tajani 

President of the European Parliament 

I 

EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service 

Table of contents 

1. Pursuing peace in a more connected, contested and complex world  ________________ 1

1.1. How to measure peace ______________________________________________________  1

1.2. Identifying threats and shaping policy: indices and policy making  ___________________  1

2. The Normandy Index _________________________________________________________ 2

2.1. How to use the Normandy Index  ______________________________________________  5

3. The Normandy Index – why now?  ______________________________________________ 7

4. Twenty-five case studies and how to use them ___________________________________ 7

Bosnia and Herzegovina  _______________________________________________________  8

Brazil _______________________________________________________________________  9

Canada  ____________________________________________________________________ 10

Central African Republic  ______________________________________________________ 11

China ______________________________________________________________________ 12

Colombia  __________________________________________________________________ 13

Costa Rica __________________________________________________________________ 14

Democratic Republic of the Congo ______________________________________________ 15

Egypt ______________________________________________________________________ 16

Ethiopia ____________________________________________________________________ 17

Georgia ____________________________________________________________________ 18

India  ______________________________________________________________________ 19

Indonesia  __________________________________________________________________ 20

Nigeria  ____________________________________________________________________ 21

North Korea  ________________________________________________________________ 22

North Macedonia ____________________________________________________________ 23

The Philippines ______________________________________________________________ 24

Russia  _____________________________________________________________________ 25

Somalia ____________________________________________________________________ 26

South Africa  ________________________________________________________________ 27

Syria  ______________________________________________________________________ 28

Tunisia _____________________________________________________________________ 29

Turkey _____________________________________________________________________ 30

Ukraine ____________________________________________________________________ 31

Venezuela __________________________________________________________________ 32

5. ANNEX – The Normandy Index: Methodology ___________________________________ 33

II 

Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

1. Pursuing  peace  in  a  more  connected,  contested  and 
complex world 

The European Union's foreign policy has long been the subject of varied and contested academic 
debate  –  on  subjects  ranging  from  the  Union's  capacity  and  legitimacy  to  act,  to  its  need  for  a 
strategy,  vision  and objectives.  In  response, in  part,  to  some of  those  questions,  the  2016 Global 
Strategy, launched by the High Representative / Vice-President of the Commission (HR/VP) Federica 
Mogherini, set out a structured and coherent vision for European Union (EU) foreign policy in an 
increasingly  complex  geopolitical  and  socioeconomic  global  environment.  Building  on  the 
provisions of the founding Treaties of the EU – and more specifically of the Treaty of Lisbon – the 
Global Strategy raises the EU's level of ambition as a foreign policy actor in pursuit of the objectives 
defined in the Treaty. Key among those is the pursuit of peace, both in the EU and globally.  

The Normandy Index (NI), a product of a 2018 memorandum between the region of Normandy and 
the European Parliament, aims to provide a holistic picture of the world – regions and countries – 
through the prism of the pursuit of peace measured against threats explicitly defined in the Global 
Strategy. Its objective is to provide a tool to help EU policy makers design targeted external action 
instruments.  It  is  also  deliberately  framed  to  be  concise  and  easy  to  understand, in order  to  also 
serve as a communication tool for the wider public – both in terms of understanding threats across 
the world, but also providing information about EU external action. It complements the Peace and 
Security Outlook produced by the European Parliamentary Research Service. 

1.1. How to measure peace 

The modern definition of peace refers not only to 'an absence of war', but also includes elements of 
well-being:  people  demand  and  expect  more  from  peace.  This  positive  dimension  of  peace  is 
difficult  to  measure  as  it  is  a  continuum,  stretching  from  inter-state  war  to  positive  public 
perceptions.  This  continuum  includes  international  (i.e.  wars,  hybrid  conflicts)  and  intra-national 
violence (i.e. gang or police violence, forced displacements). Therefore, any measure of peace has 
to take numerous dimensions into account. 

Another way to measure peace is to take into consideration the level of threats to peace, in order to 
address them and avoid possible deterioration. To be sure, several states in the world are faced with 
multiple threats that not only affect peace individually, but can also merge to create new challenges 
– and hybrid threats. 

The Normandy Index focuses on two main aspects, namely: the perception of threats in the EU's 
external action (and hence the type of phenomena that EU action aims to tackle to prevent, address 
or resolve conflict and insecurity, and the monitoring of probability (or existence) of conflict on the 
basis of the status or level of these threats in a given country. 

1.2. Identifying  threats  and  shaping  policy:  indices  and  policy 
making  

Indices  can  be  used  as  early-warning  systems  designed  to  give  policy  makers  insights  about 
potential risks and developments in economic, social, environmental, security and political factors. 
Depending  on  their  makeup,  indices  can  quantify  possibilities  of  an  event  occurring  in  the 
near/foreseeable  future,  thus  acting  as  foresight  tools.  Foresight,  as  defined  in  the  2019  Global 

1 

 
 
 
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Trends to 2030 report of the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) is 'an intellectual 
exercise where we imagine different alternatives of the future ... tracing how we end up there'. In 
that sense, foresight is a tool to help determine and choose a path for action; it is 'an organising yet 
selective principle'. 

An  index  can  also  provide  a  comprehensive  overview  of  a  situation  made  up  of  a  basket  of 
contributing factors. Existing indices relating to peace and security present differing versions of such 
baskets, taking into account selected variables to build their measurements of conflict and peace. 
Some function as conflict trackers, focusing specifically on the prevention of deadly violence and its 
particular relevance for a region or country's foreign policy. Others aim to be broadly informative 
about  the  levels  of  a  multitude  of  factors  such  as  societal  safety  and  security,  domestic  and 
international conflict and the degree of militarisation. A third category, such as the Fragile States 
Index (FSI), highlight areas of vulnerability contributing to the risk of state fragility. 

Overall, these indices aim to measure the comparative level of pre-defined variables across a region 
or the world; to make political risk assessments for the future; and to contribute to the work of policy 
makers and other foreign policy actors. The NI's vision is to perform these functions in the service of 
EU foreign policy, in a way that is consistent with its objectives and aims. 

2. The Normandy Index  

The  Normandy  Index  differs  from  other  indices  by  adopting  an  approach  tailored  by  and  to  the 
action of  the  European Union  and  by  defining  conflict  (and conflictualité)  as  a  product of factors 
linked to the main threats identified by the EU in its external action strategy. As described in the 
2018 Peace and Security Outlook, the EU Global Strategy identifies the following 11 threats as the 
main current challenges to peace and security. 

terrorism 

hybrid threats 

economic crisis 

climate change 

energy insecurity 

violent conflicts 

fragile states 

transborder crime 

cybersecurity 
weapons 
destruction (WMDs) 

of  mass 

disinformation 

The index uses eight of these eleven threats as factors assigned equal weight in the final result for 
136 UN countries (with the EU-28 being counted as one).1 

No  solid  data  was  available  however  to  measure  transborder  crimes  across  the  borders  of  136 
countries: first, there are thousands of dyads (borders separating two countries) in the world, and 
second, many states do not publish solid data on transborder crime. This dimension was therefore 
excluded from the index and replaced by a global measurement of organised crime: the number of 
homicides. 

Measuring  hybrid  threats  is  also  complicated,  as  they  are,  by  their  very  nature,  multi-faceted, 
comprising  of  a  combination of  factors.  The  index  therefore  assesses  hybrid  threats  indirectly  by 

1 

See Methodological Annex. 

2 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                             
Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

examining  the  accumulation  of  various  dimensions  but,  to  avoid  duplication,  does  not  explicitly 
include a 'hybrid threat' category. 

Quantifying or even estimating the level of disinformation in a given country remains a contentious 
issue among specialists and there is no widely accepted definition or set of data with worldwide 
coverage, notwithstanding efforts made at regional level. For this reason, this initial version of the 
NI  uses  a  measure  of  'press  freedom'  in  its  place.  While  resilience  to  disinformation  and  press 
freedom  are  in  no  way  interchangeable  or  synonymous,  the  latter  is  an  important  factor  that 
contributes to the former. In fact, one of the fields in which a country's resilience to disinformation 
can be measured is the nature of the media landscape. Press freedom and regulations that protect 
it,  along  with  compliance  with  a  code  of  ethics  are  important  tools  to  combat  the  spread  of 
disinformation.  A  free,  robust  press  with  appropriate  legislative  safeguards  offers  a  safety  net  to 
counter the effectiveness of disinformation. As research into disinformation evolves and as more 
data becomes available, future versions of the index will adapt accordingly.  

The NI adds to the 10 above-mentioned factors the quality of the democratic process, as democracy 
support is a core dimension of EU's external action. Given the complex and multidimensional nature 
of  the  domains,  the  methodology  chosen  for  the  NI  is  based  on  the  selection  of  one  key 
representative  indicator  for  each,  based  on  current  academic  and  policy  literature  and  the  data 
available. 

Domain 
(threat)  

Climate change 

Indicators 

Definition 

Source 

Number 
of 
countries 
covered 

Year of most 
recent data 

INFORM 
Global Risk 
Index – 
natural 
disaster risk 
sub-indicator 

INFORM is a global, open-source risk 
assessment  for  humanitarian  crises 
and disasters. 

United Nations 

193 

2019 

Cybersecurity 

Cybersecurity 
Index 

Democratic 
processes 

Economic crises 

Polity IV – 
Combined 
Polity Score 

Financial 
Vulnerability 
– non-
performing 
loans as a % 
of total loans 

Energy 
insecurity 

Energy 
imports 

Fragile states 

Fragile States 
Index 

to 

in  order 

The Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI) 
is  a  survey  measure  capturing  the 
commitment  of  Member  States  to 
cybersecurity 
raise 
awareness.  It  is  the  only  existing 
open source cybersecurity index. 
Indicator of levels of democracy and 
autocracy  present  in  a  country.  The 
scale runs from +10 Democratic to -
10 Autocratic 
The  non-performing  loans  to  total 
gross  loans  ratio  is  calculated  by 
using  the  value  of  non-performing 
loans  (NPLs)  as  the  numerator  and 
the total value of the loan portfolio as 
the denominator. It is often used as a 
proxy for asset quality. 
Net energy imports (% of energy use). 
Banded  to  be  0  if  country  is  a  net 
exporter of energy. 
 The  Fragile  States  Index  (FSI)  is  an 
annual  ranking  of  178  countries 
based on the different pressures they 
face  that 
levels  of 
impact  their 
fragility.  The  index  is  based  on  the 

International 
Telecommunication 
Union 

199 

2017 

Polity IV -Systemic 
Peace 

167 

2015 

World Bank 

139 

2017 

World Bank 

144 

2015 

Fund for Peace 

181 

2018 

3 

 
 
 
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Tool 

(CAST) 

proprietary  Conflict  Assessment 
System 
analytical 
approach  of  the  Fund  for  Peace. 
Based  on  comprehensive  social 
science methodology, three primary 
streams  of  data  —  quantitative, 
qualitative,  and  expert  validation  — 
are  triangulated  and  subjected  to 
critical  review  to  obtain  final  scores 
for the FSI.  

Homicide 

Homicide 
rate per 
100 000 

Homicide rate per 100 000 – used as 
a proxy for crime 

United Nations 
Office on Drugs and 
Crime (UNODC) 

166 

2015 

on 

and 

based 

The Press Freedom Index is an annual 
ranking  of  countries  compiled  and 
published  by  Reporters  Without 
Borders 
the 
organisation's  own  assessment  of 
countries'  press 
freedom  records 
over  the  previous  year.  It  intends  to 
reflect  the  degree  of  freedom  that 
journalists,  news  organisations,  and 
netizens  have  in  each  country,  and 
the  efforts  made  by  authorities  to 
respect that freedom. 
A  composite  score  designed  to 
ranking  of 
provide  an  ordinal 
countries  based  on  the  impact  of 
terrorism  on  them.  The  impact  of 
terrorism  includes  incidents,  deaths, 
injuries,  and  property  damage 
caused by terrorism. 
This is an average of the following six 
indicators  from  the  Global  Peace 
Index: (1) intensity of internal conflict, 
(2)  deaths  from  internal  conflict  (3) 
(4) 
number  of 
internal  conflicts, 
intensity  of  external  conflict, 
(5) 
deaths  from  external  conflict  (6) 
external or internal conflicts. 
The 
is  based  on  a 
categorised  system  for  rating  the 
destructive  capability  of  a  country's 
stock of heavy weapons. Holdings are 
those  of  government  forces  and  do 
not 
include  holdings  of  armed 
opposition  groups.  Heavy  weapons 
numbers  were  determined  using  a 
combination  of  the 
International 
Institute  for  Strategic  Studies,  the 
Military  Balance  and  the  United 
Nations  Register  of  Conventional 
Arms.  Countries  that  are  signatories 
to  non-proliferation  treaties  score 
better in this indicator. 

indicator 

Press freedom  

World Press 
Freedom 
Index 

Terrorism 

Global 
Terrorism 
Index  

Violent conflict 

Conflict sub-
indicators of 
the Global 
Peace Index 

Nuclear and 
Heavy 
Weapons 
Capabilities 
Indicator of 
the Global 
Peace Index 

WMDs 

4 

Reporters Without 
Borders 

180 

2017 

Global Terrorism 
Index Report 2018, 
Institute for 
Economics and 
Peace 

163 

2018 

Institute for 
Economics and 
Peace 

163 

2018 

Institute for 
Economics and 
Peace 

163 

2018 

 
 
 
 
Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

The Normandy Index is therefore a tool to be used by EU policy makers to assess countries most at 
risk in the world according to the EU's Global Strategy and target EU action. It is not a ranking of 
countries according to their peacefulness but a ranking of threats to peace.  

The idea is that it will evolve with time, as new measures become available, and will become better 
at responding to the needs of policy makers and analysts.  

These  comparisons  enable  EU  policy  makers  to  grasp  which  areas  need  to  be  given  greater 
consideration when assisting partners all over the world at national and regional levels 

2.1. How to use the Normandy Index 

For each of the 136 countries, the NI uses the eleven threats to peace as set out in the EU Global 
Strategy and compares them to the same eleven dimensions for other countries in the same region, 
as the regional environment obviously plays a major role in countries' resilience to threats. 

For each dimension, 10 represents no risk and 0 a major threat. In the example shown below the EU 
appears less at risk in seven out of eleven dimensions, while being more at risk in the area of energy 
security than the rest of the world.  

Example of Peace Profile in the NI (10=Strength, 0=Weakness) 

Source: Normandy Index, 2019 

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Normandy Index, 2019 

6 

 
 
 
 
Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

3. The Normandy Index – why now? 

According to a Eurobarometer survey conducted in 2016 and then repeated in 2018, the majority of 
European citizens would like to see increased EU involvement in all policy areas relating to peace 
and security. While EU foreign and security policy remain in the intergovernmental sphere to a much 
larger extent than other policy areas, the Lisbon Treaty has contributed to a considerable increase 
in the EU supranational institutions' contribution in this area. With respect to Parliament, the most 
relevant provisions relate to consultation, oversight, accountability and budgetary functions.  

Article 36 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), obliges the HR/VP to consult Parliament regularly 
on  the  main  aspects  and  choices  of  common  foreign  and  security  policy  (CFSP)  and  common 
security  and  defence  policy  (CSDP)  and  to  keep  Parliament  informed  on  policy  developments, 
requiring  that  Parliament's  views  be  taken  'duly  into  consideration'.  The  European  Parliament 
therefore holds annual debates on the state of play of the CFSP and of the CSDP, on the basis of 
annual  progress  reports  on  the  implementation  of  these  policies.  Parliament  also  votes  on  two 
annual own-initiative reports (INI) on the implementation of the CFSP and CSDP respectively, asks 
questions of the HR/VP, and makes recommendations to the HR/VP and to the Council on related 
matters.  Parliament  exercises  authority  in  security  and  defence  matters  through  its  function  as 
budgetary authority. Most notably perhaps, the Parliament oversees those civilian aspects of CSDP 
that are financed by the EU budget (Article 41 TEU).  

The Normandy Index will contribute to the European Parliament's role in foreign policy oversight. It 
will  to  give  Members  of  the  European  Parliament  a  measure  of  threats  to  peace  throughout  the 
world  that  is  consistent  with  the  EU's  Global  Strategy.  Consequently,  it  should  serve  as  a  tool  in 
response to increased demands for accountability from actors involved in CFSP and CSDP, as well as 
an empirical argument supporting demand for attention to regions and countries at risk.  

At  a  time  of  growing  demand  for  EU  institutions  to  demonstrate  greater  legitimacy  and 
transparency, the gradually growing involvement of the European Parliament in CFSP has helped 
increase democratic accountability in this policy area. Although, Parliament's formal powers in CFSP 
are limited, it nonetheless has an increasing influence as a 'norm entrepreneur' in human rights and 
democracy, both through its close relationship with the HR/VP and as a diplomatic player through 
its 44 delegations.  

4. Twenty-five case studies and how to use them 

In order to illustrate the use and potential of the Normandy Index, 25 case studies have been singled 
out in the following pages. For each case study, the reader can find an analysis of the traditional 
sources of instability and threats to peace, as well as a graphic representation of the situation in the 
country compared with other countries from the same region. In addition, there is a focus on new 
sources of insecurity, and an analysis of the EU's contribution and assistance in the area of building 
resilience through its involvement with the country in question. The latter can take many different 
forms (development cooperation, support for democracy and human rights, cooperation within the 
European  Neighbourhood/regional  cooperation,  pre-accession  assistance,  etc.)  and  varies  from 
country to country, depending on the degree and type of cooperation put in place with the country 
concerned.  

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Bosnia and Herzegovina 

Bosnia and Herzegovina ranks 37 in the Normandy Index. Despite its strong score, it is considered more 
at  risk  than  the  European  average.  It  performs  significantly  less  well  than  the  European  average  in 
cybersecurity and fragile states, but scores well in terrorism and energy insecurity. 

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
Bosnia  and  Herzegovina  experienced  severe  armed 
conflict  between  1992  and  1995,  resulting  in  several 
international peacekeeping missions.  
In  1995  the  Dayton  Peace  Agreement  resulted  in  a 
decentralised  government  system.  The  country  is 
divided  into  two  semi-independent  federal  units, 
Republika  Srpska  and  the  Federation  of  Bosnia  and 
Herzegovina, which are largely self-governing. 
This decentralised governance is partly the reason for 
Bosnia  and  Herzegovina  having  the  second  lowest 
in  Europe.  Efficient 
Fragile  States 
cooperation  among  the  country's  constitutional 
entities is impeded by mistrust among ethnic groups 
and political parties. Nevertheless, Bosnia and Herzegovina still ranks within the top 100 overall and 
higher than considerably larger countries. The country is heavily dependent on coal, at 67 % of total 
electricity  production,  but  is  investing  in  renewable  energies,  with  vast  hydro  and  non-hydro 
renewable energy potential. 

Index  score 

has 

New security and hybrid threats  
Bosnia 
some 
and  Herzegovina 
vulnerabilities to new security threats, owing 
to resources still being allocated to rebuilding 
following 
conflict  and  a  highly 
decentralised state structure. One example is 
cybersecurity, where the country ranks in the 
The 
bottom 
constitutional  entities  in  the  country  lack 
expertise  and  resources  to  build  a  coherent 
and solid cybersecurity strategy. While growth 
in  gross  domestic  product  has  stagnated 
somewhat  since  2008,  some  areas  of  the 
economy  have  grown  significantly  and  offer 
opportunities  to  build  resilience  to  these 
threats. For example, tourism has grown over the past decade, increasing by 12.1 % in 2018 alone.  

cyber-defence. 

the 

for 

20 

EU involvement 

Bosnia  and  Herzegovina  (BiH)  is  a  potential  candidate  for  EU  membership  and  therefore  has  a  special 
relationship with the EU. After the war in the western Balkans in the 1990s, the Dayton Agreement brought 
peace in the country. Since 2004, the EUFOR Althea mission has been supporting efforts in BiH to secure an 
irreversible peace. Nevertheless, BiH is facing difficulties in a number of areas. It remains a fragile state because 
constitutional cooperation between the communities is difficult. The EU is assisting with a number of building 
and  twinning  programmes.  The  EU  also  supports  environmental  and  climate  transition  through  the  Pre-
accession Instrument, allocating €9.5 million in 2018.  

8 

 
 
 
 
 
Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

Brazil 

Brazil ranks  45 in  the  Normandy  Index  and performs lower  than  the  South American  average  for  the 
indicators measuring homicide, weapons of mass destruction and resilience to disinformation.  

Traditional  sources  and  indications  of 
conflict 
Brazil has the ninth highest homicide rate globally, 
and  the  21st  highest  score  for  weapons  of  mass 
destruction.  While it  is not  a  nuclear  power,  Brazil 
has a large arsenal of tanks, armoured vehicles and 
combat-capable aircrafts. 
In 2018, Brazil's homicide rate was 30.8 per 100 000 
people.  This  is  the  15th  highest  in  the  world  and 
more than quadruple the global average of around 
seven  people  per  100 000.  Homicide  and  violent 
crime  have  increased  in  recent  years  owing  to 
organised  crime,  with  most  homicides  occurring 
near the main drug smuggling routes. Brazil's deep 
economic recession from 2014 to 2017 exacerbated deep-rooted social inequalities and translated 
into a steep rise in homicides. 

Brazil scores well on democratic processes, 
with the 32nd highest score globally.  

New security and hybrid threats  
At global level, Brazil's performance is above 
average for every indicator relating to new 
security  and  hybrid  threats,  especially  on 
cybersecurity. Recognising the high level of 
cybercrime  and  cyber  threats  in  Brazil,  the 
Brazilian  government  and  legislators  have 
been working intensively on this issue. As a 
result, Brazil has the second highest score in 
cybersecurity in the South American region. 
A 2018 law inspired by the EU's General Data 
Protection  Regulation  (GDPR)  passed  by 
further  enhance 
Brazil's  Congress  will 

national cybersecurity by addressing concerns about digital privacy. 

EU involvement 

The EU and Brazil entered a strategic partnership in 2007. Through a large array of sector dialogues the EU 
supports Brazil in addressing the pervasive social inequalities that fuel the country's high homicide rate. EU 
projects are among others aimed at strengthening the protection of human rights defenders and the human 
rights of particularly vulnerable groups such as the homeless, and at countering violence, notably domestic 
violence against women. EU projects on fake news seek to enhance Brazilians' resilience to disinformation. 
Moreover, the EU fosters transparency in areas such as public procurement. The EU's Partnership Instrument 
funds a wide variety of sustainability projects in Brazil. Moreover, Brazil benefits from the EU programme for 
Latin America EUROCLIMA+, addressing climate change. 

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Canada 

Canada ranks 6 in the Normandy Index, indicating low levels of risk. It performs better than the world 
average in nearly every indicator, and scores notably well on both the democratic processes and fragile 
states indicators. 

Traditional  sources  and  indications  of 
conflict 
Canada has a long-standing democratic tradition in 
the  form  of  a  parliamentary  system,  enhanced  by 
strong levels of education and a high GDP per capita. 
In  the  2018  Human  Development  Index,  Canada 
ranked 12 out of the 189 countries measured. In the 
Economist  Intelligence  Unit's  Democracy  Index, 
Canada comes sixth out of 167 countries with regard 
to  political  freedom,  culture  and  participation.  In 
addition,  Canada  is  the  sixth  most  stable  country 
according to the Normandy Index, as measured by 
the fragile states indicator. This is largely due to high perceptions of state legitimacy, effective public 
services and low levels of external intervention.  
While Canada performs well on most indicators of traditional conflict, it moved up nine rankings to 
57 in the 2018 Global Terrorism Index. The country experienced six terror-related deaths in 2017.  

indicator.  Canada 

New security and hybrid threats  
Canada  has  high 
levels  of  both  economic 
development  and  human  capital.  The  country  has 
the  10th  largest  economy  and  second  most  stable 
economy  globally,  as  measured  by  the  economic 
crises 
is  one  of  only  a  few 
developed countries to be a net exporter of energy, 
as indicated by its strong score on energy insecurity. 
Canadian  society  also  enjoys  a  high  level  of  press 
freedom, as it ranks 18 in the Freedom of Information 
Index.  This  is  due  to  varied  media  coverage  and 
freedoms  through  the  Charter  of  Rights  and 
Freedoms enshrined in the Constitution Act of 1982. 

EU involvement  

Canada is a strategic partner for the EU. Under the 2016 Strategic Partnership Agreement the EU and Canada 
have  strengthened  their  foreign  policy  and  sectoral  cooperation,  with  a  view  to  upholding  their  joint 
commitment  to  advance  democratic  principles  and  human  rights  and  to  work  together  to  strengthen 
international peace and security, effective multilateralism and the rules-based international order. Canada has 
been one of the steadiest contributors to EU CSDP missions and operations, having taken part in 10 missions 
and operations to date. The EU and Canada have also concluded a security of information agreement for the 
exchange  of  classified  information.  The  agreement  aims  to  facilitate  further  CSDP  cooperation,  and 
cooperation on counter-terrorism, cyber security and sanctions. In 2018 the EU and Canada hosted the first 
annual  women  foreign  ministers'  conference  in  September  2018,  aiming  to  propose  initiatives  with  the 
purpose of elevating a feminist foreign policy agenda around the world. Still in the area of peace and security, 
Canada and the EU also operate jointly within the NATO framework. Canada and the EU are meanwhile strong 
economic partners. In 2017, they signed the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between the EU 
and Canada (CETA), which aims to set a high standard for sustainability chapters in trade agreements. Last but 
not least, the EU and Canada have joined forces as leaders in the international fight against climate change, 
including by co-convening a Ministerial on Climate Action (MoCA) with China in 2018.  

10 

 
 
 
 
 
Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

Central African Republic 

Central African Republic (CAR) ranks 130 in the Normandy Index. It is considered more at risk than the 
sub-Saharan  African  average.  The  constitutional  republic  has  struggled  through  ongoing  episodes  of 
civil war since 2003. 

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
Despite numerous ceasefire and peacebuilding efforts, 
including  the  Brazzaville  Agreement  in  2017  and 
democratic  election  of  President  Touadera  in  2016, 
violence  between  armed  groups  remains  common 
and  the  country  is  de  facto  partitioned  between  the 
Anti-Balaka  in  the  southwest  and  ex-Séléka  in  the 
northwest.  
In 2018, CAR ranked sixth globally on the Fragile States 
Index,  reflecting  the  weakness  of  the  central  elected 
government. The security vacuum that has emerged as 
a result has contributed to CAR's high violent conflict 
score.  CAR  has  the  15th  highest  score  for  impact  of  terrorism  globally.  The  second  and  third 
deadliest attacks recorded in the 2018 Global Terrorism Index were carried out by Séléka- and Anti-
Balaka-affiliated groups, respectively. Both sides of the civil war have demonstrated the capacity and 
will to attack civilians, internally displaced persons 
and  even  United  Nations  personnel.  There  have 
been instances of ethnic cleansing carried out by 
both factions. 

New security and hybrid threats  
Limited  central  government  capacities  and 
authority  make  CAR  vulnerable  to  emerging 
threats in areas including cybersecurity and press 
freedom. These shortcomings have resulted in the 
country's  low  score  for  democratic  processes.  In 
addition to this, attacks on the media are common 
and the central state authority is often opposed to 
media  criticism,  leading  to  a  2019  World  Press 

Freedom Index rating of 112, below the sub-Saharan African average. 

EU involvement 

The EU helped the CAR government to draw up the 2017-2021 national recovery and peacebuilding plan and 
the  EU  comprehensive  approach  in  the  CAR  is  in  line  with  this  plan.  The  CAR  is  part  of  the  ACP  (African, 
Caribbean and Pacific countries)-EU partnership. In this context, EU aid to the CAR is financed by the European 
Development Fund and totals €327 million for the 2014-2020 period. In addition, the EU Bêkou Trust Fund for 
the Central African Republic is designed to improve both the coordination of EU donors and the approaches 
taken  by  CAR  so  as  to  reduce  aid  fragmentation.  At  the  end  of  2016,  pledges  to  the  Bêkou  Trust  Fund 
amounted to €146 million, mostly from the EU budget and the European Development Fund. Parliament has 
called on the Member States and other donors to 'scale up their contributions'. One military mission, EUTM 
RCA, is currently operating in the country, helping to restructure national forces. The EU has committed to 
support the implementation of the peace deal signed in February 2019 between the CAR government and 
armed groups; however the EU was not a prominent actor in this peace deal, which signals the emerging role 
of Russia on the African continent.  

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China 

China ranks 122 in the Normandy Index, one place below Russia. It is considered more at risk than the 
Asia-Pacific average. Since the institution of economic reforms in 1978, China has experienced significant 
economic growth, becoming the second largest economy in terms of nominal gross domestic product. 

Traditional  sources  and  indications  of 
conflict 
China is still entangled in border disputes with India 
and Bhutan. Moreover, China's claims to sovereignty 
over Taiwan and several maritime features in the East 
and South China Seas have been heavily contested. 
In  support  of  these  claims,  China  fields  the  world's 
largest  army  and  second  largest  global  defence 
budget.  China  also  possesses  active  nuclear 
weapons. 
China  ranks  88th  on  the  2019  Fragile  States  Index, 
with particularly weak scores in the human rights and 
state legitimacy categories. China has been regularly 
accused  of  violent  repression  in  Tibet  and  Xinjiang 
Province. It has been the subject of numerous terror attacks in recent years, reportedly committed 
largely by Uyghur separatists. As a result, China ranks 36th in the 2018 Global Terrorism Index, with 
six incidents recorded and 16 fatalities. 

New security and hybrid threats  
China's rapid economic growth has had a negative 
impact on its  natural  resources  and environment, 
severely undermining water quality and leading to 
erosion  and  widespread  pollution.  Desertification 
claims  an  additional  4 000  km2  per  year  of  arable 
land 
relies  on  new 
technologies  for  an  authoritarian  model  of  social 
surveillance and conformity that it is portraying as 
an  alternative  to  liberal  governance  models.  It 
ranks 177 in the 2019 World Press Freedom Index, 
down from its 176 ranking the previous year, and 
thus lags far behind other Asia-Pacific countries in 
terms of resilience to disinformation. Being a one 
party state, it scores far below other Asia-Pacific countries when it comes to democratic processes. 

in  the  country.  China 

EU involvement 

Since the EU and China established a strategic partnership in 2003, they have broadened and deepened their 
relations  through  more  than  60  dialogue  formats,  including  on  non-proliferation  and  disarmament.  These 
contribute to the implementation of the EU-China 2020 Strategic Agenda for Cooperation. Cooperation on 
climate change, including emissions trading, and on sustainable development, energy, urbanisation, water 
and  the  circular  economy  is  high  on  the  agenda.  The  thematic  and  regional  programmes  of  the  EU's 
Development Cooperation Instrument aim to strengthen civil society, the rule of law, human rights, and good 
governance  in  China.  The  regular  EU-China  human  rights  dialogue  also  raises  issues  such  as  freedom  of 
expression and of religious belief. The EU has repeatedly called on China 'to expedite the process of ratifying 
the  International  Covenant  on  Civil  and  Political  Rights',  which  China  signed  in  1998.  At  the  21st  EU-China 
Summit in April 2019 the EU and China committed to contribute jointly to international peace in several areas, 
including cyberspace and conflict settlement.  

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Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

Colombia 

Colombia ranks 93 in the Normandy Index, indicating that the country faces some risk. It is considered 
more at risk than the South American regional average, and performs below the regional average for 
homicide, terrorism, violent conflict and resilience to disinformation. 

Traditional  sources  and  indications  of 
conflict 
Colombia  has  struggled  with  organised  crime  and 
the impact of terrorism. A peace agreement between 
the  government  and  the  biggest  terrorist  group, 
Fuerzas  Armadas  Revolucionarias  de  Colombia 
(FARC),  was  signed  in  2016.  However,  there  are  an 
estimated  2 500  active  FARC  dissidents.  In  March 
2019, hundreds of Colombians were displaced after a 
key  drug  trafficking  region  experienced  increased 
fighting  between  ex-FARC  groups. 
likely 
organised crime and terrorist groups will continue to 
pose  a  threat  to  peace  in  Colombia.  This  includes 
knock-on effects to other aspects of society, such as 
homicides. The homicide rate in Colombia is higher 

is 

It 

than the South American regional average and 
among the 20 highest in the world. 

New security and hybrid threats  
Colombia performs below the South American 
regional  average  for  new  security  threats. 
However, the country does show resilience in a 
number  of  areas,  including  energy  insecurity, 
being a net exporter of energy. It also performs 
higher  than  the  South  American  regional 
average  in  cybersecurity.  Colombia  performs 
relatively poorly in press freedom and access to 
information. The country ranks 129 in the 2019 
World  Press  Freedom  Index,  largely  owing  to 
high  numbers  of  death  threats  towards 

journalists and resultant self-censorship. 

EU involvement 

EU support for Colombia's peace process has shaped the EU-Colombia relationship in recent years. Since 2000, 
this support has reached almost €2 billion (including €575 million announced by the EU for the post-conflict 
period, and €910 million allocated bilaterally by Member States between 2010 and 2015). In December 2016, 
the EU set up a Trust Fund for Colombia, totalling €95 million from the EU budget and 19 Member States; and 
the Instrument contributing to Stability and Peace (IcSP) mobilised an extra €40 million for critical elements 
of the peace process, such as achieving an effective transitional justice system. EU cooperation covers areas 
such as victims' rights, reintegration of ex-FARC guerrillas into civilian life, de-mining, rural development, land 
restitution, environment, conflict resolution, projects relating to peace and the post-conflict period, and the 
establishment of a special investigation unit in the prosecutor-general's office to combat crime and protect 
activists.  The  EU  has  also  appointed  a  special  envoy,  Eamon  Gilmore,  who  considers  the  EU's  role  in  the 
Colombian peace process to have been a great success, and a model for EU external policy. The EU also has a 
Comprehensive  Trade  Agreement  with  Colombia  and  Peru,  provisionally  applied  since  2013.  Regional 
cooperation between the EU and the Andean Community aims to help cement regional ties in Colombia's 
neighbourhood. 

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Costa Rica 

Costa Rica ranks 18 in the Normandy Index, indicating relatively low levels of risk. In contrast to several 
other countries in the Central America and Caribbean region, Costa Rica has high levels of peace and 
political stability. Costa Rica enjoys a stable and uninterrupted democracy, with 14 presidential elections 
since 1948. 

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
Costa Rica abolished its military in 1948 following the end 
of an intense civil war. This has had positive ramifications 
for its violent conflict and weapons of mass destruction 
scores. There is a limited threat of armed conflict within 
the  country,  and 
relations  with 
neighbouring  states.  Additionally,  it  ranks  among  the 
countries  suffering  the  lowest  impact  from  terrorism. 
Costa Rica ranks fifth globally in electoral efficiency and 
credibility,  and  this  is  reflected  in  its  high  score  on 
democratic processes.  
While it performs well on other indicators of traditional conflict, Costa Rica has relatively high levels 
of homicide. High homicide rates are attributed to organised crime, which also affects many other 
countries within the Central American and Caribbean region. 

it  enjoys  good 

New security and hybrid threats  
Costa Rica has a relatively high level of resilience to 
new  security  threats.  It  has  a  long-standing  and 
stable  democracy  and  benefits  from  high  levels  of 
press freedom and human rights. It ranks 10th in the 
2019 World Press Freedom Index, owing to low levels 
of violence against journalists and state interference. 
As such, it performs above the regional average for 
the indicators measuring democratic processes and 
fragile  states.  Nevertheless,  Costa  Rica  faces  risks 
from climate change and scores below the regional 
average. Costa Rica ranks 22 among those countries 
the  most  susceptible  to  hazards  resultant  from 
INFORM's  Global  Risk 
in 
climate-related  events 
Index. In response, Costa Rica is aiming to be carbon neutral by 2021 and is the only country to have 
met all five of the United Nations Development Programme's environmental stability measures. 

EU involvement 

The EU has traditionally maintained strong political relations with Costa Rica. Both parties played an active 
part  in  the  San  José  dialogue  of 1984  to  support  the  peace  process  and  democratisation  efforts  in  Central 
America. Cooperation agreements were concluded in 1985 and 1993, and a political dialogue and cooperation 
agreement in 2003. Costa Rica is also signatory to the EU-Central America Association Agreement concluded 
in  2012.  Although  Costa  Rica  has  been  phased  out  of  bilateral  cooperation  under  the  2014-2020  financial 
exercise, it will continue to benefit from the EU thematic lines, the regional programmes for Latin America and 
from  the  sub-regional  programme  for  Central  America.  The  current  programming  exercise  includes 
cooperation  on  security  and  impunity.  The  EU  also  supports  new  regional  approaches  through  triangular 
cooperation  schemes;  for  instance,  it  is  working  with  Costa  Rica,  Colombia  and  Mexico  on  strengthening 
restorative  justice.  The  EU  has  also  funded  projects  in  the  areas  of  citizen  security,  fighting  discrimination 
against vulnerable groups, border security, and the Central American security strategy. Costa Rica is aligned 
with the EU in international fora on various issues, including regional peace and security. 

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Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

Democratic Republic of the Congo 

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) ranks 130 in the Normandy Index. It is considered more at 
risk  than  the  Sub-Saharan  African  average.  The  republic  is  still  mired  in  the  effects  of  the  profound 
political and security crisis triggered in 1997 when President Kabila violently seized power.  

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
Despite  successful  elections  in  2006  and  in  2011, 
continued  allegations  of  government  corruption  and 
their  2016 
the  deferral  of  elections  beyond 
constitutional  limit  until  30  December  2018  led  to 
escalating  violence  and  government  repression  from 
2016 onwards.  
The DRC ranks 5th on the 2019 Fragile States Index.  
Despite  the  fragility  of  the  state  itself,  the  DRC  has  a 
high  score  for  democratic  processes  relative  to  the 
broader  sub-Saharan  Africa  region.  This 
likely 
reflective of the ongoing efforts of the United Nations 
MONUSCO  mission  and  the  successful  –  though 
contested – election of Félix Tshisekedi as president in January 2019. 
The  DRC  ranked  11th  in  the  2018  Global  Terrorism  Index.  Its  terrorism  score  is  continuing  to 
deteriorate as the ungoverned eastern regions of the DRC host a number of extremist groups and 
militias  that  have  shown  the  capacity  and  resolve  to  engage  both  DRC  government  forces  and 
United Nations  peacekeepers.  Groups  such  as  the Allied  Democratic  Forces  (ADF)  and  the  Lord's 
Resistance Army are known to use child soldiers 
and commit acts of ethnic cleansing. 

is 

New security and hybrid threats  
The  unconstitutionally  long  term  of  President 
Kabila  took  its  toll  on  press  freedom,  with 
reportedly  regular  threats  and  physical  attacks 
and occasional killings of journalists, leading the 
DRC  to  rank  154th  out  of  180  countries  in  the 
2019 World Press Freedom Index.  
The country is considered at-risk, with particular 
vulnerabilities  to  threats  to  its  energy  supply 
and infrastructure. 

EU involvement 

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is part of the ACP (African, Caribbean and Pacific countries)-EU 
partnership. In this context, EU aid to the DRC is financed primarily by the European Development Fund, up 
to €709 million for the 2014-2020 period, of which one quarter is dedicated to strengthening governance and 
the  rule  of  law.  The  EU  has  deployed  two  military  missions  and  three  civilian  missions  in  Congo,  to  help 
stabilise the country and reform police and army forces. The latest ended in June 2016. EU relations with the 
DRC  are  strained  due  to  sanctions  against  several  Congolese  perpetrators  of  human  rights  violations, 
including  former  President  Kablila's  relatives.  In  retaliation,  the  Congolese  government  ordered  the  EU 
ambassador to leave the country in December 2018, a few days before the elections were held. The EU was 
not invited to send an electoral observation mission and it has 'noted' that Tshisekedi's election as the new 
president was contested.  

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EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service 

Egypt 

Egypt ranks 119 in the Normandy Index. It is considered more at risk than the average for the Middle East 
and  north  Africa  (MENA)  region  average.  Street  protests  in  2011  forced  long-term  President  Hosni 
Mubarak to step down. Political unrest has continued since. The military removed Mubarak's successor 
Mohammad Morsi from power in 2013. Thousands of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood supporters have since 
been sentenced to death or jailed. Morsi's successor, President el-Sisi, was elected in 2014 and re-elected 
in 2018. 

Traditional  sources  and  indications  of 
conflict 
Egypt ranks 34th on the 2019 Fragile States Index, 
with  particularly  high  scores  in  the  human  rights 
and  factionalised  elites  indicators.  The  military 
remains  the  predominant  political  force  in  the 
country  and  has  demonstrated  its  capacity  to 
influence  the  country's  political  direction.  Since 
2014,  the  terrorist  group  Wilayat  Sina,  the  Islamic 
State's local branch in the Sinai Peninsula, has been 
conducting  a  prolonged  insurgency  against  the 
Egyptian authorities. The group was responsible for 
457 deaths in 2017; this is the main reason for Egypt 
ranking ninth in the 2018 Global Terrorism Index. 

New security and hybrid threats  
98 %  of  Egypt's  population  of  approximately 
95 million  is  concentrated  around  the  arable 
Nile valley and delta, which represent only 3 % 
of the country's total landmass. The population 
relies  on  the  Nile's  regular  flow  for  its  basic 
water needs, a supply which is threatened by 
Ethiopia's  planned  construction  of  a  dam 
upstream. Soil salinisation also threatens 15 % 
of the country's agricultural land. 
Egypt's ongoing political unrest has led to the 
detention  and  sentencing  of 
journalists. 
Reflecting  this,  Egypt  ranks  161  of  180 
countries  in  the  2018  World  Press  Freedom 
Index. Public access to more than 500 websites has been blocked. In 2017, Egypt launched a national 
cybersecurity strategy, intended to defend national infrastructure against cyberattacks. 

EU involvement  

Egypt is facing a host of economic, social, political and security challenges. The socioeconomic grievances that 
led  to  the  January  2011  revolution  have  not  been  addressed.  The  European  Union  stands  by  the  Egyptian 
people in their ongoing efforts to achieve socio-economic development, as well as democracy, respect for 
human rights, social justice and security. The 2001 association agreement, which entered into force in June 
2004,  forms  the  legal  basis  for  EU-Egypt  relations.  Relations  were  further  strengthened  through the  jointly 
agreed  EU-Egypt  Action  Plan,  adopted  in  2007,  which  helped  to  develop  bilateral  relations  in  the  political, 
social and economic realms. In the context of the revised European Neighbourhood policy, the EU and Egypt 
have adopted partnership priorities to guide the partnership for the 2017-2020 period. EU assistance to Egypt 
will focus on economic modernisation, energy sustainability and the environment; social development and 
social protection; and governance. 

16 

 
 
 
 
 
Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

Ethiopia 

Ethiopia ranks 116 in the Normandy Index. It is considered more at risk than average for sub-Saharan 
Africa.  The  country  is  a  federal  parliamentary  republic,  with  significant  power  vested  in  the  prime 
minister. Despite two national states of emergency declared in response to popular protests, in October 
2016 and February 2018, under President Abiy Ahmed Ethiopia has made great efforts to both resolve 
ongoing  disputes  with  Eritrea  following  the  1998-2000  war  and  introduce  wide-ranging  political, 
economic and electoral reforms. 

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
Ethiopia  ranks  23rd on  the  2019 Fragile  States  Index, 
with  particularly  high  scores 
for  demographic 
pressures  and  group  grievances.  In  2018,  clashes 
than 
between  ethnic  groups  displaced  more 
1.2 million people.  
Conflict  with  Eritrea  and  among  ethnic  and  religious 
groups  has,  however,  given  rise  to  terrorist  violence. 
Ethiopia  ranks  26th  on  the  2018  Global  Terrorism 
Index,  with  24  recorded  incidents  and  60  fatalities. 
Anti-terror  measures  are  particularly  harsh  and  have 
raised 
rights 
organisations. 

concern  of  many  human 

the 

New security and hybrid threats  
Ethiopia  ranks  150th  in  the  2019  World 
Press  Freedom  Index,  well  below  the  sub-
Saharan  African  average.  The  states  of 
national  emergency  declared  in  2016  and 
2018 have been used to silence dissenting 
voices, with a number of newspapers being 
shut  down  and  certain  broadcast  media 
being banned.  
Energy insecurity remains an ongoing issue 
in  Ethiopia.  Ongoing  disputes  with  Egypt 
over  the  construction  of  the  Millennium 

Dam on the River Nile remain a point of tension. 

EU involvement 

Ethiopia is a key partner for the EU strategic framework for the Horn of Africa, due to its economic potential, 
its military capacity and its ability to retain refugees. Ethiopia is part of the ACP (African, Caribbean and Pacific 
countries)-EU  partnership.  In  this  context,  EU  aid  to  Ethiopia  is  financed  primarily  by  the  European 
Development Fund up to €745 million for the 2014-2020 period. Conflict prevention and resilience efforts are 
also  financed  by  means  of  the  EU  Emergency  Trust  Fund  for  Africa  (EUTF  Africa),  for  projects  worth  €232 
million, with a view to mitigating the root causes of irregular migration. One of the projects partly financed by 
the EUTF Africa is dedicated to rebuilding roads between Ethiopia and Eritrea in support of the 2018 peace 
agreement, which ended two decades of conflict between the two countries.  

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EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service 

Georgia 

Georgia ranks 18th in the Normandy Index. It performs higher than the Eurasian regional average in the 
indicators measuring homicide, terrorism, violent conflict, and weapons of mass destruction.  

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
Since  independence  from  the  Soviet  Union  in  1991, 
Georgia  has  had  to  face  economic  crisis  and  wars  in 
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In August 2008, a five-day 
war with Russia resulted in the Russian occupation of 
Abkhazia  and  South  Ossetia.  While  most  of  the 
international community and the EU support Georgia's 
territorial  integrity,  the  intensity  of  the  conflict  has 
decreased  without  being resolved.  Georgia  is  among 
the world's lowest 40 % for homicide rates, at 2.68 per 
100 000,  and  has  experienced  relatively  low  levels  of 
terrorism in the past five years. The country also scores 
indicator  and 
well 

in  the  democratic  processes 

performs 
globally.  

in  the  top  40 %  of  countries 

New security and hybrid threats  
Georgia  has  the  region's  second  highest 
score on the economic crisis indicator, and a 
relatively resilient economy. Reform over the 
past 15 years has focused on globalising the 
business sector and boosting gross domestic 
product.  
Over the past decade, Georgia has cultivated 
trade 
different 
geographic  areas.  While  neighbouring 
countries  Russia,  Bulgaria,  Azerbaijan  and 
Turkey  still  constitute  the  main  export  destinations,  Georgia  has  expanded  its  relationships  with 
China, established the EU-Georgia Association Agreement, joined the EU's deep and comprehensive 
free trade area and committed to the NATO Response Force. Georgia has also increased resilience 
in other areas and now has the highest score for cybersecurity in the Eurasian region. 

relationships 

across 

EU involvement 

Although Georgia is facing Russian military presence in two regions (South Ossetia and Abkhazia), it ranks as 
the most resilient Eastern Partnership (EaP) country. Georgia has been committed to deepening relations with 
the EU, through European Neighbourhood policy (ENP) since 2004 and the Eastern Partnership since 2009. 
With the association agreement and the deep and comprehensive free trade agreement, the EU is supporting 
the modernisation of the Georgian economy and the strengthening of state institutions and policies. The EU 
is also working to offer Georgian citizens new travel, study and business opportunities. Since the entry into 
force of the visa-free regime in 2017, Georgian citizens holding biometric passports can enter the Schengen 
area  visa-free  and  remain  there  for  up  to  90  days  in  any  180-day  period.  Since  then,  more  than  500 000 
Georgians have travelled to the EU. In the 2015-2018 period, 5 579 students and academic staff took part in 
the Erasmus+ programme for the purpose of teaching or studying in the EU or Georgia. 

In areas where Georgia is more at threat (energy security and climate), the EU funds projects in renewable 
energies, i.e. €105 million for energy security (2007-2017). 

18 

 
 
 
 
 
Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

India 

India ranks 125 in the Normandy Index. It is considered less at risk than average for southern Asia. The 
country has been a federal parliamentary republic since its independence from the United Kingdom in 
1947. India's high risk on the index is largely the product of a number of unresolved territorial disputes 
with China and Pakistan, both of which are also nuclear-armed powers. 

Traditional  sources  and  indications  of 
conflict 
Although it is the world's most populous democracy, 
India  ranks  74th  on  the  2019  Fragile  States  Index. 
Despite high-level economic success since the 1990s, 
the  country  has  been  challenged  by  ongoing inter-
religious,  inter-caste  and  inter-ethnic  disputes.  The 
country  has  struggled  in  particular  with  endemic 
poverty,  both  rural  and  urban.  An  estimated 
46 million 
line. 
Internally,  India  ranked  7th  in  the  2018  Global 
Terrorism  Index.  The  Naxalite  Communist  Party  of 
India is the deadliest terrorist actor in the country and 
has  been  active  for  several  decades  in  its  northern 
and central territories. India's tensions with Pakistan, 
particularly  over  ownership  of  the  Jammu-Kashmir  region,  have  also  given  rise  to  a  number  of 
Islamist groups operating from within Pakistani territory.  

live  below  the  poverty 

Indians 

New security and hybrid threats  
More than 180 million Indian households have 
access to television and more than 462 million 
people  use  the  internet  in  India.  However, 
'anti-national' 
government  efforts  to  limit 
thought  have  led  to  India  ranking  138th  on 
the 2018 World Press Freedom Index. The risks 
posed  by  flooding,  rising  temperatures  and 
India's 
declining 
agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to 
climate change. Some estimates suggest that 
up to 40 % of total crop yield could be lost if 
temperatures were to rise by 2°C. India has a 
much  stronger  cybersecurity  infrastructure 
than average for southern Asia. 

rainfall,  mean 

that 

EU involvement 

India is the biggest democracy in the world. India and the EU have been strategic partners since 2004. They 
began talks on a bilateral trade and investment agreement (BTIA) in 2007, but negotiations are at a deadlock. 
In November 2018 the EU adopted a new strategy on India to relaunch the partnership. India is not eligible for 
bilateral assistance from the EU's Development Cooperation Instrument (DCI), however it can still benefit from 
DCI-funded thematic and regional programmes for Asia. EU-India cooperation has expanded significantly in 
research and innovation (R&I). At their last two summits, the EU and India have agreed on an Agenda for Action 
2020 and stated their joint commitment to cooperation on combatting terrorism, and promoting clean energy 
and climate change, a water partnership and smart and sustainable urbanisation. 

19 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service 

Indonesia 

Indonesia ranks 44 in the Normandy Index. Significant economic growth in the populous country have 
raised  it  to  political  prominence  in  the  region.  This  rise  has  not  been  without  its  problems:  sectarian 
unrest, corruption, terrorism and the 1997 financial crisis have each posed significant challenges. 

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
Indonesia  has  faced  a  number  of  separatist  and 
militant  movements  since  its  independence  in  1949 
and ranks 42 on the 2018 Global Terrorism Index. For 
instance, the country's occupation of East Timor from 
1975  to  1999  led  to  conflict  with  Fretilin,  a  pro-
independence  militia,  and  conflict  with  Papuan 
separatists remains ongoing. Islamist movements, and 
Jemaah Islamiyah in particular, while formerly active in 
the country, have been less active in recent years. 

New security and hybrid threats  
Despite its success in instituting democratic 
practices, including the conduct of the 2019 
general election, Indonesia ranks 124 in the 
2019 World Press Freedom Index and 93 on 
Index,  with  a 
the  2019  Fragile  States 
particularly  high  score 
the  group 
in 
grievances category. This has largely to do 
with  ongoing  unrest  in  the  province  of 

Papua, where media access is restricted. 
The 2004 Aceh earthquake and tsunami, in which over 160 000 people were killed, demonstrated 
Indonesia's  vulnerability  to  environmental  and  climatic  factors.  Increasing  drought  frequency  is 
predicted to threaten Indonesia's monsoon-based agricultural practices and lead to food shortages, 
while rising ocean levels are predicted to threaten approximately 42 million low-lying households. 

EU involvement 

Although the EU and Indonesia are geographically distant, they have common values, such as a commitment 
to  democracy,  human  rights  and  multilateralism.  Both  are  pluralistic  societies  with  a  motto  of  'Unity  in 
Diversity'. In 2014, Indonesia became the first southeast Asian country to sign a partnership and cooperation 
agreement with the EU. A free trade agreement is currently being negotiated. As a middle-income country, 
Indonesia  no  longer  receives  EU  bilateral  aid,  except  for  programmes  pre-dating  2014,  but  it  continues  to 
participate in regional programmes including Erasmus+ for higher education. As a regional leader, Indonesia 
is also key to the EU's efforts to build a strategic partnership with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations 
(ASEAN). 

20 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

Nigeria 

Nigeria ranks 113 in the Normandy Index. It is considered to be more at risk than average for sub-Saharan 
Africa. Nigeria has struggled with ethnic tensions since colonial times. While the 1967-1970 civil war was 
primarily concerned with the equitable distribution of oil revenues between ethnic groups, more recent 
conflict has assumed more sectarian overtones. The country operates as a federal republic. 

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
Despite  an  overall  improvement  on  the  previous  year, 
Nigeria ranked 3rd in the 2018 Global Terrorism Index, 
with  411  recorded  incidents  and  1 532  fatalities.  Boko 
Haram,  an  ISIL-affiliated  Islamist  insurgency  operating 
since  2002,  produced  the  majority  of  these  deaths. 
However, conflict between Christian farmers and Islamic 
Fulani herdsmen has also escalated into violent conflict, 
with the latter carrying out a number of terrorist attacks.  
The country's federal model allows for a large degree of 
state  autonomy  between  the  predominantly  Muslim 
north and the predominantly Christian south. However, 
the  concentration  of  oil-producing  regions  in  the  southern  Niger  Delta,  as  well  as  endemic 
corruption, have led to Nigeria ranking 14th on the 2019 Fragile States Index, with particularly high 
scores in the factionalised elites and group grievances indicators. 

New security and hybrid threats  
Despite being Africa's biggest economy in terms 
of nominal gross domestic product, Nigeria has a 
fragile economic situation on account of its over-
reliance  on  oil.  The  country's  accelerated 
demographic  growth  is  a  potential  factor  of 
instability given the lack of jobs for young people. 
As  a  relatively  wealthy  country  in  the  region, 
Nigeria is an outlier in terms of the strength of its 
cybersecurity  capacities.  However,  Nigeria's 
political  corruption  has  exacerbated 
issues 
relating to disinformation. Africa's most populous 
country thus ranks 119th in the 2019 World Press 
Freedom Index. While internationally supported elections are generally praised as fair and efficient, 
they are often witness to large-scale disinformation campaigns by participating parties. This is likely 
to continue to be a challenge in the future. 

EU involvement 

The EU has supported numerous initiatives to increase Nigeria's resilience to violent conflict and other threats. 
To help fight the terrorist scourge, the EU has funded a regional initiative bringing together several Lake Chad 
countries  –  the  Multinational  Joint  Task  Force  (MNJTF)  against  Boko  Haram.  The  EU  has  been  providing 
support through the European Development Fund (totalling over €500 million from 2014 to 2020) to improve 
Nigeria's resilience in various areas, such as health and nutrition, electricity production, rule of law, and peace 
and  security.  The  EU  has  proposed  that  Nigeria  sign  up  to  a  regional  Economic  Partnership  Agreement 
between  EU  and  West  Africa  aimed  at  liberalising  trade  exchanges,  and  fostering  regional  integration  and 
sustainable  development.  The  partnership  would  also  support  Nigeria's  much  needed  economic 
diversification. The EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa supports conflict prevention and relief measures as 
well  as  greater  economic  and  employment  opportunities,  with  a  view  to  increasing  the  resilience  of 
communities in the areas most afflicted by conflict. 

21 

 
 
 
 
 
EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service 

North Korea 

North Korea ranks 118 in the Normandy Index, which is lower than the Asia-Pacific average. Negotiations 
on the reunification of the Korean peninsula have failed consistently since 1948. The Korean War (1950-
1953) produced a ceasefire between North and South but no enduring peace treaty, and each claims to 
be the sole legitimate government of the peninsula. 

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
Under  its  'military  first'  (songun)  policy,  North  Korea 
produced the fourth largest active duty military in the 
world  with  1.21  million  soldiers,  supported  by  over 
eight  million  reserve  and  paramilitary  personnel.  In 
2013  this  policy  was  replaced  with  the  'progress  in 
tandem' (byongjin) policy, which emphasises economic 
progress and guarantees security against South Korean 
or  American 
incursion  by  means  of  nuclear 
development. North Korea ranks 26 on the 2019 Fragile 
States  Index,  with  a  particularly  weak  score  in  the 
category  of  state 
legitimacy.  The  North  Korean 
government has sought to address a number of issues 
related  to  living  conditions  under  the  byongjin  policy.  The  government,  however,  is  generally 
regarded  as  authoritarian,  ranking  176  on  the  2019  Global  Corruption  Perceptions  Index,  and 
political prisoners are known to be interred in prison camps. 

New security and hybrid threats  
North  Korea  ranks  179  on  the  Global  Press 
Freedom Index. The state security apparatus 
is  extensive,  maintaining  control  over 
travel,  employment, 
citizens' 
clothing,  appearance,  food  and  family  life. 
Refugees report that the population is sorted 
according to their songbun – a status system 
the 
assessing  a 
government  –  and  granted  opportunities 
accordingly.  Furthermore,  the  shortage  of 
land  and 
skilled 
labour,  energy,  arable 
impeded 
transportation  has  significantly 
long-term  growth  and  resulted  in  North 
Korea's ongoing difficulty in meeting development objectives. This has had a particular impact on 
the farming sector and infrastructure. 

residence, 

citizen's 

loyalty 

to 

EU involvement 

The EU has a policy of 'critical engagement' towards North Korea, with a view to diminishing tensions in the 
Korean peninsula, upholding a nuclear non-proliferation regime and improving the human rights situation. It 
has applied sanctions against Pyongyang, implementing the UN Security Council resolutions and adopting 
autonomous restrictive measures. Meanwhile, since 1995, it has contributed over €135.7 million in aid funding 
to North Korea – mostly on food assistance, as well as on disaster relief and poverty alleviation. EU-North Korea 
trade in goods in 2016 amounted to a mere €27 million (0.5 % of North Korea's external trade). The EU has had 
diplomatic  relations  with  North  Korea  since  2001,  however  it  has  no  delegation;  its  local  representation  is 
ensured in turn by one of the seven Member States having embassies in the country.  

22 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

North Macedonia 

North Macedonia is placed 16th out of 136 countries measured in the Normandy Index. Its performance 
is below the average for Europe on most indicators, but it outperforms the global average when it comes 
to democratic processes, cybersecurity and homicide indicators. 

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
In 1991, North Macedonia gained independence from 
the  former  Yugoslavia  and  since  then  has  remained 
relatively peaceful. It scores within the top quartile of 
countries  in  the  democratic  processes  indicator.  The 
current  government,  led  by  the  Social  Democratic 
Alliance  of  Macedonia  (SDSM)  since  May  2017,  has 
improved relations with the EU and, in particular, with 
Bulgaria and Greece. With the Prespa Agreement, the 
country  changed  its  name  to  the  Republic  of  North 
Macedonia in exchange for Greece ending its veto on 
the latter's EU and NATO accession.  
North  Macedonia  performs  well  in  the  Normandy 
Index conflict indicators and the homicide and violent conflict indicators are in line with European 
averages.  The  country  has  experienced  less 
terrorism than the regional average. 

New security and hybrid threats  
Since 
independence,  North  Macedonia  has 
made  progress  in  developing  a  westernised, 
open-market  economy.  There  have  been 
reforms  in  areas  such  as  property  registration, 
access  to  credit  and  the  protection  of  minority 
investors.  North  Macedonia  is  the  only  middle-
income  country  to  rank  among  the  top  20 
countries  globally in  ease of doing  business, as 
ranked  by  the  World  Bank.  The  country  has 
applied for both EU and NATO membership. Its 
progress  on  economic  reform  is  demonstrated 
by its strong economic crises score. However, North Macedonia scores just below the world average, 
and the second lowest in Europe, on press freedom. 

EU involvement 

North Macedonia was the first western Balkan country to sign a stabilisation and association agreement with 
the  EU  (in  2004);  just  one  year  later,  it  became  a  candidate  country.  Because  of  the  accession  process,  the 
country  developed  an  on-gong  relationship  with  the  EU  and  is  gradually  taking  on  the 
'acquis 
communautaire'.  Since  then,  progress  towards  joining  the  EU  has  stalled.  However,  the  June  2018  Prespa 
Agreement resolved a long-standing dispute with Greece over the country's name, removing one of the main 
obstacles to both EU and NATO membership. The EU played a key role in assisting both parties in finding a 
settlement. Accession negotiations are set to begin in 2019. To prepare the country for membership, the EU 
has allocated €664 million of funding for the 2014-2020 period, focusing on the areas of institutional building, 
cross-border  cooperation,  regional  development,  human  resources  and  rural  development.  The  EU  also 
helped to set up the Regional Youth Cooperation Office (RYCO), modelled on the Franco-German Youth Office, 
which was created in 1963 to boost cooperation between young French and German citizens. RYCO promotes 
student exchanges with the EU and in the region, in order to foster reconciliation. 

23 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service 

The Philippines 

The Philippines ranks 103 in the Normandy Index, lower than the Asia-Pacific average. Since securing 
independence  following  World  War  II,  the  country  has  faced  a  range  of  political,  economic  and 
environmental  challenges.  The  Philippines  has  pursued  a  wide-ranging  campaign  against  criminality, 
while still faced by a number of ongoing sectarian insurgencies. 

Traditional  sources  and  indications  of 
conflict 
The  Philippines  is  among  the  top  third  most  fragile 
countries  in  the  world.  Ranking  50th  on  the  2019 
Fragile States Index it has a particularly high score in 
the  security  apparatus  category.  Accordingly,  it  is 
considered more at risk than the Asia-Pacific average. 
One  of  the  reasons  for  this  fragility  is  the  relatively 
high levels of terrorism. The Philippines ranks 10th in 
the  2018  Global  Terrorism 
In  2017,  486 
separate  incidents  were  recorded,  with  a  total  326 
fatalities.  The  country  has  faced  a  number  of 
insurgencies 
including 
Communist,  Islamist  and  separatist  movements.  In 
2016, ISIL-affiliated actors sought to establish an 'East-Asia province' in the country, occupying and 
holding the city of Marawi for five months. In 2019, the Bangsamoro autonomous entity was created 
to  resolve  an  ongoing  insurgency  in  the 
region. 

independence, 

Index. 

since 

New security and hybrid threats  
The Philippines ranks 134 in the 2019 World 
Press  Freedom  Index  and  99  on  the  2018 
Corruption Perception Index. The Philippines 
is  one  of  the  world's  top  ten  countries 
exposed  to  climate  change  risks.  Typhoon 
Haiyan in 2013 caused the loss of 6 300 lives, 
the displacement of over four million people 
and  US$2  billion  in  damage.  As  average  sea 
temperatures 
Philippines' 
vulnerability to such extreme weather events 
is predicted to increase. Extensive mangrove 

rise, 

the 

deforestation has been noted as a factor that exacerbates this risk. 

EU involvement 

Due to its colonial history, the Philippines is the most westernised country in southeast Asia: Catholicism is the 
main religion, English is a widely used second language, and the political system is modelled on that of the 
United States. Together with its Member States, the EU is the Philippines' largest aid donor. For the 2014-2020 
period,  the  EU  allocated  €325  million  of  aid,  focusing  on  two  areas:  rule  of  law,  and  inclusive  growth 
(promoting renewable energy). The EU-Philippines Partnership and Cooperation Agreement came into force 
in 2018, and a free trade agreement is currently under negotiation. At present, the Philippines enjoys duty-
free  access  to  EU  markets  for  most  of  its  exports  under  the  GSP+  scheme.  Since  2016,  EU  criticism  of 
extrajudicial killings has sparked an angry response from President Duterte, but in most areas cooperation has 
not been affected. 

24 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

Russia 

Russia ranks 121st of the 138 countries measured in the Normandy Index. While performing better than 
the  Eurasian  regional  average  in  terms  of  energy  insecurity,  democratic  processes  and  cybersecurity 
indicators, Russia performs worse than its regional counterparts in the overall score. This is largely due to 
weak  performance  on  the  weapons  of  mass  destruction  (WMD),  climate  change  and  resilience  to 
disinformation indicators. 

Traditional  sources  and  indications  of 
conflict 
Since  the  dissolution  of  the  Soviet  Union  in  1991, 
Russia has rebuilt or altered many of its institutions. 
Nevertheless,  elements  of  authoritarian  rule  and 
relatively  weak  democratic  processes 
remain. 
Ideological  competition  between  the  United  States 
and the Soviet Union in the 20th century resulted in 
the  development  of  nuclear  arsenals 
in  both 
countries. According to the Arms Control Association, 
Russia  holds  around  half  of  the  world's  nuclear 
weapons  with  an  arsenal  of  nearly  7 000  weapons. 
Russia  also  has  the  highest  homicide  rate  in  the 
Eurasian  region,  at  11.31  per  100 000.  This 
is 
significantly  higher  than  the  global  average  of  7.27 
per 100 000.  

New security and hybrid threats  
As a major petroleum and coal exporter, Russia 
has relatively high levels of energy security. It 
also scores high on the cybersecurity indicator, 
placing  ninth  globally.  However, 
it  faces 
threats  from  the  impact  of  climate  change. 
Challenges  associated  with  severe  weather 
country's 
have 
effected 
is 
agricultural  sector.  Additionally,  Russia 
among  the  bottom  20 %  of  countries  in  the 
2019 World Press Freedom Index. Threats and 
attacks  against  journalists  are  high  in  Russia, 
independent  media 
and 
companies and the internet have had a severe 

laws  censoring 

already 

the 

impact on the spread of reliable information. 

EU involvement 

EU-Russia relations took a sharp downturn after Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and its involvement in 
separatist rebellions in eastern Ukraine. Since 2014, the EU has been applying sanctions against Russia for its 
violation of Ukrainian territorial integrity; these have hurt the country's energy, banking and defence sectors. 
In  return  Russia  has  banned  imports  of  EU  agricultural  products.  Tensions  have  also  arisen  from  Russia's 
interference in EU democratic processes (e.g. the UK's EU referendum, the 2017 French presidential election) 
and the attempted assassination of former Russian spy Sergey Skripal in the UK. EU funding for Russia is limited 
to  four  areas:  research  cooperation  (Horizon  2020),  cross-border  cooperation,  education  (Erasmus+)  and 
support for civil society.  

25 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service 

Somalia 

Somalia  ranks  133 in  the Normandy  Index.  It  is  considered  more  at  risk  than  the sub-Saharan  African 
average.  Its  performance  is  below  average  for  sub-Saharan  Africa  when  it  comes  to  the  indicators 
measuring terrorism, resilience to disinformation, state fragility and cybersecurity.  

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
Somalia has struggled with the impact of the civil war 
that began in 1991 with the overthrow of dictator Siad 
Barre.  The  country  is  also  trying  to  cope  with  the 
insurgency of terrorist organisation al-Shabaab, which 
has been plaguing the country since 2008. Partly as a 
result  of  this  instability,  the  country  is  divided  into 
autonomous  and  semi-autonomous  regions.  Somalia 
has been operating as a federation since 2012. 
Somalia saw the second biggest increase in scores on 
the  2018  Global  Terrorism  Index,  after  Egypt,  with  a 
93 %  increase  in  deaths  on  the  previous  year.  It  was 
ranked as the country with the sixth highest impact of 
terrorism. This is almost exclusively due to the activity 

jihadist  and  al-Qaeda 

of  al-Shabaab,  a 
affiliated terrorist group based in Somalia.  
Somalia  ranks  second  on  the  Fragile  States 
Index. This reflects weaknesses in the central 
government, which has little practical control 
over  much  of  its  territory,  not  least  over  the 
self-declared state of Somaliland.  

New security and hybrid threats  
In  response in  part  to  the  weaknesses  of  the 
central  government,  Somalia  has  adopted  a 
decentralised  federal  model.  As  the  federal 
significant 
government  does  not  have 
territorial  control  or  influence  over  policy, 
Somalia  is  vulnerable  to  the  threats  that 
generally  accompany  weak  states.  These 

include threats in the areas of cybersecurity and press freedom. 

EU involvement 

Somalia is one major focus of the EU's strategic framework for the Horn of Africa, which aligns various external 
policy  programmes  and  instruments  to  tackle  insecurity  in  the  area,  in  particular  the  piracy  attacks  off  the 
Coast of Somalia, and its root causes. EU aid to Somalia is financed primarily by the European Development 
Fund, up to €286 million for the 2014-2020 period, of which one third is dedicated to peace building and state 
building. Peace-building efforts are also financed by means of the EU Trust Fund for Africa, for projects worth 
€292 million, with a view to mitigating the root causes of irregular migration. Two EU military operations and 
one  CSDP  civil  mission  are  based  in  Somalia:  EUNAVFOR  operation  Atalanta,  EUTM  Somalia  and  EUCAP 
Somalia. While the EU's direct naval action has helped to secure the Coast of Somalia, international efforts to 
help improve Somali military and political governance, to which the EU has made a significant contribution, 
have yet to bear fruit.  

26 

 
 
 
 
 
Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

South Africa 

South Africa ranks 52 in the Normandy Index, scoring higher than the sub-Saharan African average. While 
it  is  considered  low-risk  and  despite  apartheid  ending  in  1994,  South  Africa  still  struggles  with 
widespread inequality. 

in 

inequality 

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
South  Africa  consistently  has  one  of  the  highest 
income 
the  world  and 
indexes 
approximately  25 %  of  South  Africa's  population  live 
below  the  poverty  line.  As  a  result, despite  its  strong 
democratic processes and status as the second largest 
African economy, South Africa ranks 88th on the 2019 
Fragile States Index. South Africa's notably high violent 
crime  rates  also  contribute  to  this  fragility.  The 
country's homicide rate, for example, is more than four 
times  higher  than  the  sub-Saharan  African  average. 
South  Africa  also  ranked  46th  globally  in  the  2018 
Global Terrorism Index, with 27 small-scale incidents in 
2017. In 1991, South Africa became the first country to 
voluntarily dismantle its nuclear weapons programme. Although South African energy security is 
much better overall the sub-Saharan African average, the country is facing an energy crisis, including 
rotational load shedding, owing to mismanagement at the state-owned Eskom enterprise and an 

aging generating capacity. 

New security and hybrid threats  
In  part  due  its  pluralist  political  foundations, 
South  Africa  exhibits  strong  resilience  to 
disinformation.  It  ranks  28  in  the  2019  World 
Press  Freedom  Index  and  scores  highly  in  the 
cybersecurity  indicator  for  the  sub-Saharan 
African 
changes  poses 
particular  risks  for  South  Africa,  as  heatwaves, 
drought and bushfire all threaten the country's 
agricultural and urban areas. Between 2015 and 
2018,  for  example,  Cape  Town  faced  a  severe 
drought, resulting in water rationing. 

region.  Climate 

EU involvement  

The  EU  and  South  Africa  have  a  strong  relationship  embodied  since  2007  in  the  EU-South  Africa  Strategic 
Partnership and the EU-SADAC European Partnership Agreement, provisionally in force since 2016. Although 
EU  development  aid  for  South  Africa  was  reduced  from  €980  million  over  the  2007-2013  period  to  €  268 
million over the 2014-2020 period, as it was redirected to the poorest countries, the EU collectively remained 
(in  2016)  South  Africa's  second  largest  donor  (after  the  US).  European-funded  projects  focused  on  three 
sectors: employment creation; education, training and innovation; and efforts to enhance state capacity to 
provide citizens with services. These are key areas when it comes to addressing the rampant inequality that is 
key to understanding South Africa's skyrocketing homicide rate and rampant corruption and that weaken the 
state and undermine economic development and social progress. 

27 

 
 
 
 
 
 
EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service 

Syria 

Ranking 136, Syria is the least peaceful country in the Normandy Index. It performs worse than the global 
average in every indicator, especially in democratic processes, terrorism, resilience to disinformation and 
violent conflict.  

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
Syria ranks at the bottom of the Normandy Peace Index 
largely  due  to  the  ongoing  impact  of  the  Syrian  civil 
war, which began in 2011. This war has resulted in an 
estimated  half  a  million  deaths  and  extensive 
displacement  and  destruction  of  infrastructure.  Over 
5.6  million  Syrians  are  registered  as  refugees  in 
neighbouring countries. 
The level of violence in the Syrian civil war has receded 
and deaths from terrorism in Syria decreased by 48 % 
to 1 096 in 2017. ISIL was responsible for 63 % of these 
deaths. However, despite the decrease in the impact of 
terrorism,  Syria  still  ranks  fourth  on  the  2018  Global 
Terrorism Index and continues to suffer the long-term 
effects of instability due to the conflict. 

New security and hybrid threats  
The  war  and  the  extreme  fragility  of  the 
Assad  regime  has  devastated  Syria  and 
diminished social and economic capital, all 
of which will impact post-war recovery.  
Syria ranks 177th out of 180 countries in the 
2019  World  Press  Freedom  Index.  Attacks 
and threats against journalists come from all 
sides in the war. In addition, despite having 
a  weak  cybersecurity  score,  the  Assad 
regime has set up special cybercrime courts 
to target internet usage. 

EU involvement  

Civil war has been raging in Syria since 2011. Even though actual fighting has calmed down, the potential for 
violence  remains  high,  with  a  risk  of  renewed  escalation.  Up  to  6.2  million  Syrians  have  been  internally 
displaced, and 12 million Syrians, including 6 million children, require humanitarian assistance. The European 
Union suspended cooperation with the Syrian government under European Neighbourhood policy in 2011, 
in response to the violent repression of anti-government protests. However, the EU and its Member States are 
lead providers of international aid to those affected by the Syrian war, both inside and outside the country. 
Since  2011,  the  EU  and  its  Member  States  have  made  available  almost  €17  billion  for  humanitarian, 
stabilisation and resilience assistance to Syrians inside the country and in neighbouring countries. With a view 
to ending the civil war, the EU has supported the UN-led intra-Syrian negotiations towards a genuine political 
transition, and supported Syrian civil society organisations with a view  to promoting a democratic form of 
governance and respect for human rights and freedom of expression. 

28 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

Tunisia 

Tunisia ranks 47 in the Normandy Peace Index. It is considered less at risk than average for the Middle 
East  and  north  Africa  (MENA)  region.  It  performs  less  well  than  the  MENA  average  for  the  indicator 
measuring energy insecurity and climate change, but better on all other indicators.  

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
Since  the  removal  of  President  Ben  Ali  during  the 
'Jasmine Revolution' in 2011, Tunisia has undergone a 
range of democratic reforms. The fallout from the 2011 
revolution,  however,  led  the  country  to  rise  on  the 
Fragile  States  Index,  from  118th  in  2010  to  95th  in 
2019,  with  factionalised  elites  and  the  state  security 
apparatus  the  two  largest  contributing  factors  to  the 
2019 ranking.  
In  2015,  the  country  suffered  from  two  major  terror 
attacks on tourist hotspots, leading to a drastic decline 
in the tourist economy. Tunisia ranked 47th in the 2018 
Global  Terrorism  Index,  with  only  three  incidents 

recorded in 2017. 

Index.  The  country  confirmed 

New security and hybrid threats  
In 2008, Tunisia ranked 143rd out of 173 on the 
World Press Freedom Index. However, following 
the  2011  revolution,  it  has  risen  to  97th  in  the 
its 
2018 
commitment to the free flow of information by 
supporting  the 
International  Declaration  on 
Information and Democracy in 2018. 
led  to  a  degree  of 
Energy 
in  Tunisia.  The  country  currently 
instability 
sources  approximately  85 %  of  its  needs  from 
is  heavily 
domestic  oil  and  gas.  Energy 
subsidised,  yet  these  reserves  are  expected  to 
start declining by 2020, leading to a sharp rise in 

insecurity  has 

energy prices. 

EU involvement 

In 2011 Tunisia embarked on a path to democratic transition and socio-economic transformation. Eight years 
on, the country has made significant progress. The EU has been a key partner to Tunisia in this process. The 
association agreement signed by the EU and Tunisia in 1995 is the legal basis for the Tunisian partnership with 
the EU. The 2011 revolution marked a turning point in the EU-Tunisia relationship and led to the establishment 
of a privileged partnership in 2012. In 2016, the EU together with the Tunisian president, launched the EU-
Tunisia Youth Partnership. Between 2011 and 2017, EU assistance to Tunisia totalled €2.4 billion. The EU and 
Tunisia are also currently negotiating a free trade agreement, with a view to achieving greater economic and 
trade integration. The 2018 EU-Tunisia strategic priorities will guide cooperation in the coming years, focusing 
on  socio-economic  development,  democracy,  good  governance  and  human  rights,  security  and  the  fight 
against terrorism among other things. For the 2017-2020 period, the EU's bilateral assistance to Tunisia under 
the European Neighbourhood Instrument (ENI), which has an allocation of up to €616 million, is focusing on 
promoting good governance and the rule of law; investing in the future: stimulating sustainable economic 
growth and generating jobs; and strengthening social cohesion regions. Tunisia is also eligible for funding 
under the Instrument contributing to Stability and Peace (IcSP) and Erasmus +. 

29 

 
 
 
 
 
EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service 

Turkey 

Turkey ranks 124 of the 136 countries measured in the Normandy Index, indicating that Turkey is at risk. 
Turkey scores much lower than the European average in nine of the eleven indicators, especially when it 
comes to resilience to disinformation and terrorism. 

in  foreign  conflicts 

indications  of 

Traditional  sources  and 
conflict 
Ongoing  repression  of  political  opposition  and 
participation 
is  reflected  by 
Turkey's  weak  performance  on  indicators  relating  to 
traditional sources of conflict. 
Globally, Turkey has the 20th lowest score for violent 
conflict, owing largely to lasting conflicts in its south-
eastern  regions.  Participation  in  the  Syrian  war  has 
also 
increased  the  country's  weapons  of  mass 
destruction score. 
Turkey ranked 12th in the world on impact of terrorism 
in  the  2018  Global  Terrorism  Index.  This  is  due  to 
attacks by ISIL and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), 
a militant Kurdish separatist group. The PKK was the deadliest terrorist group in Europe in 2017. In 
2015, more than 100 people died in terrorist attacks in Ankara. 

New security and hybrid threats  
Turkey is faced with major insecurities within the 
neighbouring countries of Iraq and Syria. It also 
considers that the military operations of Syrian 
Kurdish  movements  on  its  border  is  increasing 
the threat of terrorism within Turkey. 
In  addition,  Turkey  has welcomed  more  than  3 
million  refugees,  mainly  from  Syria,  and  this 
generous  policy  is  putting  a  strain  on  public 
services.  
The country's resilience to disinformation score 
is among the lowest globally, reflecting its 157th 
place on the 2019 World Press Freedom Index of 
180  countries.  This  is  primarily  due  to  severe 
censorship of criticism towards the government and to threats against journalists. Additionally, as a 
net importer of energy, its energy insecurity score is among the weakest 10 % globally.  

EU involvement 

Turkey has been in a customs union with the EU since 1995 and has been an accession country since 2005. 
Accession  remains  a  slow  and  complicated  process.  In  2016,  the  elected  government  led  by  Recep  Tayyip 
Erdogan faced a failed military coup and launched a purge that affected all sections of society. In recent years, 
the country has also experienced deadly terrorist attacks, and the end of  the Kurdish  peace process in the 
south-eastern part of the country, with renewed violence on both sides. The EU has engaged with Turkey in a 
critical dialogue on the issues of human rights, the rule of law and freedom of expression. 

Through the accession process, the EU and Turkey cooperate in many areas, including those in which Turkey 
is facing threats: Pre-accession funds support the main public institutions, common energy projects reduce 
energy insecurity, and the EU and Turkey cooperate on fighting terrorism. Turkey has welcomed more than 3 
million refugees and the EU has helped with €6 billion in assistance. 

30 

 
 
 
 
 
Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

Ukraine 

Ukraine ranks 107 on the Normandy Index, indicating that peace in the country is at risk. It scores below 
the Eurasian average, owing not least to Russia's on-going hybrid war against the country. 

Traditional  sources  and  indications  of 
conflict 
In  2013,  the  decision  by  the  president  at  the  time, 
Viktor  Yanukovich,  not  to  sign  an  association 
agreement with the EU sparked major pro-European 
protests  in  Ukraine.  In  February  2014,  the  Ukrainian 
parliament  voted  to  impeach  Yanukovich,  who  fled 
Kyiv. Russia responded by annexing Crimea in March 
2014, 
law,  and  by 
launching  an  unprecedented  hybrid  war  against 
Ukraine,  including  military  aggression  in  eastern 
Ukraine  –  which  has  so  far  claimed  around  12 800 
lives,  with  over  1.5  million  displaced  people  –  and, 
more  recently,  in  the  Sea  of  Azov.  Against  this 
backdrop, Ukraine has a high terrorism score and the 14th poorest score in violent conflict globally 
– higher than Russia, Turkey, and India. Despite this, Ukraine scores well regionally on democratic 
processes, and holds regular and competitive elections, most recently, the spring 2019 presidential 
elections. 

in  violation  of 

international 

campaigns, 

New security and hybrid threats  
Since  2014,  Russia  has  used  a wide  range of  hybrid 
including  cyberattacks, 
tactics  against  Ukraine, 
disinformation 
coercion, 
economic pressure, religious pressure and an offer of 
citizenship to all Ukrainians. Despite the EU-Ukraine 
Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, which has 
increased trade with the EU, Ukraine has the second 
lowest  GDP  per  capita  in  Europe  and  experiences 
high levels of unemployment and poverty. However, 
Ukraine  has  a  well-developed  industrial  base  and 
highly trained labour potential, indicating that sound 
economic  improvement  is  possible.  Ukraine  also  performs  better  than  the  regional  average  on 
media  freedom.  Despite  recent  media  reforms,  bans  on  Russian  media  and  the  blacklisting  of 
journalists have had a negative impact on media freedom. 

energy 

EU involvement 

An association agreement, including a deep and comprehensive free trade area (DCFTA) between the EU and 
Ukraine,  was  signed  in  2014.  The  EU  is  unwavering  in  its  support  for  the  country's  territorial  integrity  and 
sovereignty and sees the full implementation of the Minsk agreements as the basis for a sustainable, political 
solution to the conflict in the east of the country. Diplomatic restrictions against Russia were first imposed in 
March 2014. The EU has gradually increased these measures, starting in March 2014 with targeted sanctions 
against persons responsible for actions against Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence. 
A first package of economic  sanctions targeting cooperation with Russia was announced in July 2014. The 
duration  of  the  EU's  economic  sanctions  against  Russia  is  explicitly  linked  to  fulfilment  of  the  Minsk 
agreements.  The  EU  has  also  conducted  trilateral  talks  on  trade  and  energy-related  issues  with  Russia  and 
supported political engagement including through discussions in the Normandy format (France; Germany; 
Ukraine;  Russia)  and  the  Trilateral  Contact  Group  (Organisation  for  Security  and  Co-operation  in  Europe, 
Ukraine and Russia). 

31 

 
 
 
 
 
EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service 

Venezuela 

Venezuela  ranks  96  in  the  Normandy  Index  and  is  considered  more  at  risk  than  the  South  American 
average.  It  performs  worse  on  every  indicator  except  energy  insecurity  at  regional  level,  with 
international sanctions exacerbating the situation in this domain. 

Traditional sources and indications of conflict 
Since  2010,  Venezuela  has  seen  an  economic  and 
political  downturn  caused  by  a  heavy  reliance  on  oil 
exports  and  excess  national  spending.  Massive 
nationwide  anti-government  protests  have  featured 
violence  among  both  the military  and  the  protesters. 
The stability of the state and its democratic processes 
have deteriorated since the onset of the downturn. 
President Nicolás Maduro was re-elected in May 2018, 
but the election was contested owing to irregularities 
in  how  the  results  were  announced.  Claims  to  the 
presidential  seat  have  been  disputed.  From  2018  to 
2019, Venezuela fell by 12 places in the Fragile States 
Index, largely as a result of decreased state legitimacy 
and increased group grievances. Venezuela has one of 
the highest homicide rates globally at 57 per 100 000. 

New security and hybrid threats  
Despite  a  low  percentage  of  non-performing  loans, 
the  national  performance  indicator  for  economic 
crisis, Venezuela's economy has been mired in hyper-
inflation,  resulting  in  food  and  supply  shortages. 
Migration away from Venezuela has reached massive 
levels,  creating  a  humanitarian  crisis  in  the  region, 
with  the  number  of  Venezuelans  abroad  rising  from 
under 700 000 in 2015 to 3 million in November 2018 
according  to  the 
International  Organization  for 
Migration (IOM). Venezuela has the largest known oil 
reserves  in  the  world,  and  for  decades  was  a  major 
exporter.  However,  international  sanctions  and  a 

deteriorating infrastructure make it difficult to access the oil, even within the country. 

EU involvement 

The European Union has cooperated with Venezuela in the fight against the consumption and trafficking of 
illicit  drugs,  by  supporting  the  implementation  of  the  country's  national  anti-drugs  plan.  Under  the  multi-
annual indicative programme for Latin America for the 2014-2020 period, Venezuela is eligible to participate 
with a view to promoting the security-development nexus, environmental sustainability and the fight against 
climate  change.  In  the  context  of  the  political  and  economic  crisis  currently  affecting  the  country,  the  EU 
supported  the  failed  dialogue  efforts  between  the  government  and  the  parliamentary  majority,  and  has 
reiterated the need for free and transparent elections respecting Venezuela's constitutional rules. It has also 
imposed  targeted  sanctions  and  an  embargo  on  arms  and  related  material  that  could  be  used  for  internal 
repression. To alleviate the migratory crisis, the EU announced a package of €35.1 million in emergency aid 
and medium-term development assistance for the Venezuelan people and neighbouring countries affected. 
More recently, it established an International Contact Group on Venezuela with the agreement of some Latin 
American countries, that is working to facilitate conditions for a political and peaceful process leading to new 
presidential elections and to enable the rapid delivery of humanitarian aid. 

32 

 
 
 
 
 
Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide 

5. ANNEX – The Normandy Index: Methodology 

This annex explains the components and the methodology of the index, developed by the Institue 
for Economics and Peace. 

33 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Normandy Index – Methodology 

Contents 

Background ................................................................................................................................. 2 

Methodology Overview .............................................................................................................. 3 

Detailed Domain and Indicator Descriptor ............................................................................... 5 

Domain 1 – Climate Change .......................................................................................................... 5 

Domain 2 - Cybersecurity ............................................................................................................... 6 

Domain 3 – Democratic Processes ................................................................................................ 6 

Domain 4 – Economic Crises .......................................................................................................... 7 

Domain 5 – Energy Insecurity ........................................................................................................ 7 

Domain 6 – Fragile States .............................................................................................................. 8 

Domain 7 – Criminality/Homicide ................................................................................................. 8 

Domain 8 – Resilience to Disinformation ...................................................................................... 9 

Domain 9 – Terrorism ................................................................................................................... 10 

Domain 10 – Violent Conflicts...................................................................................................... 10 

Domain 11 – Weapons of Mass Destruction ............................................................................... 11 

Data Availability and Imputation ............................................................................................ 12 

Weighting the Indicators.......................................................................................................... 12 

Domain Calculations ................................................................................................................. 12 

Aggregating Domain Scores to Final NI Score ........................................................................ 13 

Bibliography.............................................................................................................................. 14 

Annex – page 1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The Normandy Index Methodology 

Background 

Humanity is now facing challenges unparalleled in its history. Many of these problems are global in 
nature, such as climate change, ever-decreasing biodiversity, depletion of the earth’s fresh water, 
and  overpopulation.  All of  these  are occurring  in  a  socio-political  time of  great  uncertainty,  with 
shifting power dynamics amongst global superpowers, the breakdown of traditional alliances and 
a widespread crisis of democracy.  

Such global challenges call for global solutions and require cooperation on a scale unprecedented 
in  human  history.  In  a  hyper-connected  world,  the  sources  of  many  of  these  challenges  are 
multidimensional, increasingly complex and span national borders.  

These challenges, if not addressed, increase the strain on resources, infrastructure and society, all of 
which  can  affect  levels  of  peace  in  nations  and  the  world.  The  United  Nations  and  World  Bank 
Pathways for Peace Report released in 2018 recognised the interconnectivity of these challenges and 
called for risks to be considered multi-dimensional in nature.   

To contribute to the field between the European Parliament and the Region of Normandy seeks to 
produce the ‘Normandy Index’ on an annual basis, starting with the 2019 initial launch. The purpose 
of the NI is to produce a measurement tool to allow policy makers and civil society be able to grasp 
different aspects of the threats facing the globe. It aims to capture threats to peace and offer insights 
into the multidimensional risks faced by countries. Annual updates will allow the tool to track how 
dynamics shift from year to year and assess positive and negative changes in risks. 

The NI has three main aims: 

1.  The assess the state of conflict and potential for conflict in each given country considering 

the current state and potential future state 

2.  To provide a tool for measuring and monitoring trends across time 
3.  To  provide  a  mechanism  to  link  the  aforementioned  categories  of  threats  with  an  actual 
ranking  of  “state  and  risk  of  conflict”  that  can  be  quantified  and  used  for  policy-making 
purposes. 

Text Box 1: The Normandy Index in context 

The  NI  is  intended  to  contribute  to  the  field  in  being  to  identify  different  factors  that  the  EU 
Parliament believes pose threats to peace in the coming years. As such, the NI is capturing and 
conveying a unique angle to existing composite indices such as the Institute for Economics and 
Peace’s (IEP) Global Peace Index (GPI).  

The GPI produced annually by IEP, ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their 
level of peace as defined by the absence of violence and absence of fear of violence. It is as such 
a measure of levels of negative peace today. IEP also explores the positive aspects of peace in its 
Positive Peace Index (PPI), which measures the levels within the 163 countries of the attitudes, 
institutions and structures that are known to create and sustain peaceful societies.  

Annex – page 2 

 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
Both the GPI and PPI are measuring levels of peace in the world today. The NI however is capturing 
threats to peace in the world today making it a useful contribution to the suite of tools used for 
quantitative analysis of peace and security.  

In its inaugural launch, the NI covers 136 countries and regions. The EU is considered as one 
bloc and is given the average score of each country member. 

NI Overall score (0 = most at risk, 10 = least at risk) 

Methodology Overview 

The EU Global Strategy 2018, the EU Parliament has prioritised a number of domains as being threats 
to peace in the coming years.1  

Each domain is in and of itself a complex system with multiple, interconnecting dimensions that are 
hard  to  quantify.  Recognising  this,  the  NI  seeks  to  simplify  many  of  these  domain  concepts  by 
selecting  one  key  representative  indicator,  rather  than  delving  into  the  more  complex  and 
subjective  exercise of  selecting,  weighting  and  aggregating  multiple indicators  for  each  domain. 
The indicators that were selected for each domain were done so based on current academic and 
policy literature, data availability, and in consultation with the EU parliament.  

Table 1 presents the indicators selected to capture these domains. 

1 (European Union, 2018) 

Annex – page 3 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
                                                           
TABLE 1: NI Indicators 

IEP research is directly relevant to the Normandy Index (NI).  

Domain 

Indicators 

Definition 

Source 

Number 
of 
Countries 
Covered 

Latest Year 
of Data 

Climate 
Change 

INFORM Global Risk 
index – Natural Disaster 
Risk Sub-indicator 

INFORM is a global, open-source risk assessment 
for humanitarian crises and disasters. 

United Nations 

193 

2019 

Cybersecurity 

Cybersecurity Index 

Democratic 
Processes 

PolityIV - Combined 
Polity Score 

Financial Vulnerability - 
Non-performing loans 
as % of total loans 

Economic 
Crises 

Energy 
Insecurity 

The Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI) is a survey 
measure capturing the commitment of Member 
States to cybersecurity in order to raise 
awareness. It is the only open source 
Cybersecurity Index that can be found. 

Indicator of levels of Democracy and Autocracy 
present in a country. The scale runs from 10 - 
Democratic to -10 Autocratic 

Nonperforming loans to total gross loans ratio is 
calculated by using the value of nonperforming 
loans (NPLs) as the numerator and the total value 
of the loan portfolio as the denominator. It is 
often used as a proxy for asset quality. 

International 
Telecommunication 
Union 

199 

2017 

Polity IV -Systemic 
Peace 

167 

2015 

World Bank 

139 

2017 

Energy Imports 

Energy imports, net (% of energy use). Banded to 
be 0 if country is a net exporter of energy. 

World Bank 

144 

2015 

Fragile States 

Fragile States Index 

 The Fragile States Index (FSI) is an annual ranking 
of 178 countries based on the different pressures 
they face that impact their levels of fragility. The 
Index is based on The Fund for Peace’s 
proprietary Conflict Assessment System Tool 
(CAST) analytical approach. Based on 
comprehensive social science methodology, 
three primary streams of data — quantitative, 
qualitative, and expert validation — are 
triangulated and subjected to critical review to 
obtain final scores for the FSI.  

Fund For Peace 

181 

2018 

Homicide 

Homicide Rate per 
100,000 

Homicide Rate per 100,000 - used as a proxy for 
crime 

UNODC 

166 

2015 

Resilience to 
Disinformation  

World Press Freedom 
Index 

The Press Freedom Index is an annual ranking of 
countries compiled and published by Reporters 
Without Borders based upon the organisation's 
own assessment of the countries' press freedom 
records in the previous year. It intends to reflect 
the degree of freedom that journalists, news 
organisations, and netizens have in each country, 
and the efforts made by authorities to respect this 
freedom. 

Reporters Without 
Borders 

180 

2017 

Terrorism 

Global Terrorism Index  

A composite score in order to provide an ordinal 
ranking of countries on the impact of terrorism. 
The impact of terrorism includes incidents, 
deaths, injuries, and property damage caused by 
terrorism. 

Global Terrorism 
Index Report 2018, 
Institute for 
Economics and 
Peace 

163 

2018 

Violent Conflict 

Conflict sub-indicators 
of the Global Peace 
Index 

Average of the following 6 indicators from the 
Global Peace Index: (1) Intensity of Internal 
Conflict, (2) Deaths from Internal Conflict (3) 
Number of Internal conflicts, (4)  Intensity of 
External Conflict, (5) Deaths from External Conflict 
(6) External of Internal Conflicts 

Institute for 
Economics and 
Peace 

163 

2018 

Annex – page 4 

 
 
 
WMD 

Nuclear and Heavy 
Weapons Capabilities 
Indicator from the 
Global Peace Index. 

This indicator is based on a categorised system 
for rating the destructive capability of a country’s 
stock of heavy weapons. Holdings are those of 
government forces and do not include holdings 
of armed opposition groups. Heavy weapons 
numbers were determined using a combination 
of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 
The Military Balance and the United Nations 
Register of Conventional Arms. Countries that are 
signatories to Non-Proliferation Treaties are 
scored better in this indicator 

Institute for 
Economics and 
Peace 

163 

2018 

The EU Global Strategy 2018 also discusses the importance of hybrid threats in coming years. Hybrid 
threats combine conventional and unconventional, military and non-military activities that can be 
used in a coordinated manner by state or non-state actors to achieve specific political objectives. 
They  can  range  from  cyberattacks  on  critical  information  systems,  through  to  the  disruption  of 
critical services such as energy supplies or financial services, to the undermining of public trust in 
government institutions or the deepening of social divisions. Given the combined nature of hybrid 
threats, it is not possible to capture the risk posed to a country in any one measure. By capturing the 
potential  components  of hybrid  threats  in  the  NI  domains,  no  separate  ‘hybrid  threat’  domain is 
calculated. 

Detailed Domain and Indicator Descriptor 

Domain 1 – Climate Change 
Indicator: INFORM Global Risk index – Natural Disaster Risk Sub-indicator2 

Full Description: The INFORM Global Risk Index gives an annual per country score between zero 
and ten, where ten is “very high risk”. 

Rationale: INFORM is a global, open-source risk assessment for humanitarian crises and disasters, 
based  on  three  dimensions  of  hazard  &  exposure,  vulnerability  and  lack  of  coping  capacity.  It 
recognises climate change and the risks associated with it as having both natural and man-made 
components, and that the risk resulting from climate change is also dependent on how countries 
are able to cope with the effects of climate change. 

Source: INFORM, 192 countries, 2018-2019. 

URL: http://www.inform-index.org/ 

2 (United Nations, 2019) 

Annex – page 5 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Domain 2 - Cybersecurity 
Indicator: GlobalCybersecurity Index3 

Full Description: The Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI) is a measure of the commitment of Member 
States  of  the  International  Telecommunications  Union  (ITU)  to  cybersecurity,  assessed  along  five 
dimensions: legal measures; technical measures; organizational measures; capacity building; and, 
cooperation.  

Rationale: The threat from cybersecurity can only be countered by a systemic and cross-sectoral 
regulatory  approach  grounded  in  technological  capabilities.  If  a  country  is  not  currently  taking 
active steps to protect financial and physical infrastructure, personal or government data, it leaves 
itself open to attacks. Examining the action and measures a country takes to try and minimize threats 
from cyber-attacks, via this GCI, is a viable, open source quantified measure of future threat. 

Source: ITU, 193 countries, 2014-2017 

URL: https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Cybersecurity/Pages/global-cybersecurity-index.aspx 

Domain 3 – Democratic Processes 
Indicator: PolityIV - Combined Polity Score4 

Full Description: The PolityIV database is a set of country level indicators of political or 
governmental organization; a society or institution with an organized government; the state; and 
the body politic. 

The Combined Polity score used in the NI is composed of two PolityIV indicators: 

•  AUTOC: a measure of the presence within a governmental system to restrict or suppress 

competitive political participation.  

•  DEMOC: a measure of the presence of institutions and procedures through which citizens 
can express effective preferences about alternative policies and leaders, the existence of 
institutionalized, constraints on the exercise of power by the executive and the guarantee 
of civil liberties to all citizens in their daily lives and in acts of political participation. 

The PolityIV Combined Score is calculated by AUTOC – DEMOC. 

Rationale: Democratic processes are widely recognised as contributing to peace. Well-functioning 
democracies themselves have institutions to deal with societal grievances in a non-violent way. It 
is also believed democracies are less like to engage in armed conflict with other democracies. 
Democratic countries on average have the highest levels of peace globally in the Global Peace 
Index.5 Furthermore,  with the exception of relatively infrequent ‘black swan’ political or conflict 
events, a country’s current democratic status tends to be a good predictor of future democratic 
status. 

Source: Polity IV -Systemic Peace, 167 countries, 2015 

URL: http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html  

3 (International Telecommunication Union, 2019) 
4 (Centre for Systemic Peace, 2019) 
5 (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2018) 

Annex – page 6 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Domain 4 – Economic Crises 
Indicator: Financial Vulnerability- Non-performing loans as % of total loans6 

Full Description: Nonperforming loans to total gross loans ratio is calculated by using the value of 
nonperforming  loans  (NPLs)  as  the  numerator  and  the  total  value  of  the  loan  portfolio  as  the 
denominator. It is often used as a proxy for asset quality. 

Rationale: Sovereign debt crisis have been found to be correlated with civil unrest7, and some have 
argued that sovereign debt crisis followed by extreme austerity measures were a contributing factor 
to the outbreak of World War II in Germany, and genocide in Rwanda.8 Non-performing loans are a 
good predictor of financial crises, with broader social consequences. Most immediately, high levels 
of debt may affect the state’s ability to provide basic public services, which in turn is a key source of 
legitimacy  for  a  government.  Excess  borrowing,  particularly  external  debt,  means  increased 
exposure to global market risks, and creditor decisions, both of which can make a state  vulnerable 
to  external  economic  shocks9.    Unsustainable  borrowing  and  debt  may  exacerbate  underlying 
societal cleavages, particularly if real or perceived inequalities grow. 

Source: World Bank, 159 countries, Latest Year of Data: 2017 

URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FB.AST.NPER.ZS 

Domain 5 – Energy Insecurity 
Indicator: Energy Imports10 

Full Description: Energy imports, net (% of energy use). 

Rationale: Energy independence, that is self-reliance on domestic sources of energy including oil, 
natural  gas,  other  minerals  as  well  as  clean  energy  sources,  has  been  a  defining  component  of 
energy security since at least the oil price crisis of October 1973.11  Although it is but one aspect of 
energy security, along with measures such as source diversity and distance to consumption, it is a 
measure for which open source, comparable data exists at a global scale, and is hence minimally 
sufficient to capture the conceptual threat of energy insecurity.   

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 185 countries, Latest Year of Data: 2015 

URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/eg.imp.cons.zs 

6 (World Bank, 2019) 
7 (Reinhardt, 2009)  
8 (Goldmann, 2012) 
9 (World Economic Forum, 2018) 
10 (World Bank, 2019) 
11 (Gail Cohen, 2011) 

Annex – page 7 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Domain 6 – Fragile States 
Indicator: Fragile States Index12 

Full Description: A score between 0 and 120, where 120 is the highest level of fragility. Each country 
is  scored  annually  based  on  12  conflict  risk  indicators  grouped  into  four  dimensions:  cohesion, 
economic, political and social. 

Rationale: The Fragile States Index is based on a conflict assessment framework – known as “CAST” 
– that was developed by FFP nearly a quarter-century ago for assessing the vulnerability of states to 
collapse.  The  CAST  framework  was  designed  to  measure  this  vulnerability  in  pre-conflict,  active 
conflict  and  post-conflict  situations,  and  continues  to  be  used  widely  by  policy  makers,  field 
practitioners,  and  local  community  networks.  The  methodology  uses  both  qualitative  and 
quantitative indicators, relies on public source data, and produces quantifiable results. 

Source: Fund for Peace, 178 countries, Latest Year of Data: 2018 

URL: http://fundforpeace.org/fsi/ 

Domain 7 – Criminality/Homicide 
Indicator: Homicide rate   

Full Description: Country Homicide rate per 100,000 population13 

Rationale: High homicide rates are associated with high risks to security of persons within a country 
and reflects a diminished capacity of government to perform its duties to protect people within its 
borders.  

The EU Global Strategy highlights trans-border crime as a significant potential threat to peace in the 
world. Transnational organised crime, by its very nature, affects all countries. The nature of trans-
border  crimes  vary  greatly,  from  Class  A  drug  smuggling  to  human  trafficking.  Crime  recording 
varies from country to country, and so there is no one database that captures interdictions of trans-
border crimes. While UNODC publish a “transnational organized crime threat assessment”, these are 
meant to be applied at the local level and do not provide a platform to be able to create a globally 
comparative ranking of countries.14 Further complicating the issue is that the factors which enable 
trans-border  crime  also  enable  all  other  types  of  economic  activity:  communications,  trade, 
interconnectedness, globalisation and new technologies. 

In  the  absence  of  a  relative  country  measure  for  transnational/transborder  crime,  the  NI  uses  a 
countries homicide rate per 100,000 as a proxy for levels of crime. While this is a crude measure, the 
link between homicide and organised crime is widely explored15, it has been used in the literature 
as an indicator of organised crime in a country.16 

Source: UNODC, 166 countries, Latest Year of Data: 2015 

URL: https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/statistics.html 

12 (Fund for Peace, 2019) 
13 (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2019) 
14 (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2010) 
15 (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2011) 
16 (Alberto Alesina, 2019) 

Annex – page 8 

 
 
 
 
                                                           
Domain 8 – Resilience to Disinformation 
Indicator: World Press Freedom Index17 

Full Description: A score between 0 and 100, where 0 is highest levels of press freedom and 100 is 
most repressive press situation. Each country is scored on a yearly basis. 

Rationale: There is a growing concern over the ability of both state and non-state actors to not only 
restrict the free flow of information, but also to actively interfere in the functioning of civil society 
through  the  use  of  disinformation  campaigns.  Research  into  resilience  to  disinformation  is  a 
relatively new field of quantification. While efforts have been made, there is no one measure that 
covers the 138 countries in the NI.18  

While  directly  measuring  the  existence  of  disinformation  in  a  way  that  is  comparable  across 
countries is not currently possible, a factor that contributes to a country’s resilience to disinformation 
can be measured by examining the media landscape.19 Press freedom and regulations that protect 
these,  along  with  compliance  of  a  code  of  ethics  is  an  important  tool  to  combat  the  spread  of 
disinformation.20 A free, robust press with appropriate legislative safeguards is the best safeguard 
against the effectiveness of disinformation. 

The Press Freedom Index is an annual ranking and scoring of countries compiled and published by 
Reporters Without Borders based upon the organisation's own assessment of the countries' press 
freedom records in the previous year. It intends to reflect the degree of freedom that journalists, 
news organisations, and citizens have in each country, and the efforts made by authorities to respect 
this freedom. It measures press freedom across seven domains, all of which contribute to resilience 
against disinformation:  

1.  Pluralism: Measures the degree to which opinions are represented in the media. 
2.  Media independence: Measures the degree to which the media are able to function 

independently of sources of political, governmental, business and religious power and 
influence. 

3.  Environment and self-censorship: Analyses the environment in which news and 

information providers operate. 

4.  Legislative framework: Measures the impact of the legislative framework governing news 

and information activities. 

5.  Transparency: Measures the transparency of the institutions and procedures that affect the 

6. 

production of news and information. 
Infrastructure: Measures the quality of the infrastructure that supports the production of 
news and information. 

7.  Abuses: Measures the level of abuses and violence. 

While  these  seven  measures  do  not  entirely  capture  resilience  to  disinformation,  in  lieu  of  other 
sources, these are as a strong proxy indicator for the domain. This domain will be reviewed in the 
next iteration of the NI as new measures emerge. 

Source: Reporters without Borders, 178 countries, Latest Year of Data: 2017 

URL: https://rsf.org/en/ranking 

17 (Reporters without Borders, 2019) 
18 (Ukranian Prism Foreign Policy Council, 2018); (Global Disinformation Index, 2019) 
19 (Ukranian Prism Foreign Policy Council, 2018) 
20 (Ukranian Prism Foreign Policy Council, 2018) 

Annex – page 9 

 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Domain 9 – Terrorism  
Indicator: Global Terrorism Index Score21  

Full Description: A composite score that provides an ordinal ranking of countries on the impact of 
terrorism. The impact of terrorism includes incidents, deaths, injuries, and property damage caused 
by terrorism 

Rationale: This is a core indicator of the multidimensional impact of terrorism on a country. This is 
the most reliable and consistent data source, available across more than 163 countries and updated 
on an annual basis, starting in 2001. 

Source: Institute for Economics and Peace, Global Terrorism Index Reports, 163 Countries, Latest 
Year of Data: 2018 

URL: http://ww.visionofhumanity.org  

Domain 10 – Violent Conflicts 
Indicator: Violent Conflict22 

Full Description: A composite indicator of the number, intensity and fatalities of both internal and 
external violent conflicts. 

Rationale: The  Institute  for  Economics  and  Peace in its  annual  Global  Peace Index measures  the 
following four indicators relating to violent conflict: 

Number and Duration of Internal Conflicts   

This indicator measures the number and duration of conflicts that occur within a specific country’s 
legal boundaries. Information for this indicator is sourced from three datasets from 

Uppsala  Conflict  Data  Program  (UCDP):  the  Battle-Related  Deaths  Dataset,  Non-State  Conflict 
Dataset and One-sided Violence Dataset. 

Number of Deaths From Organised Internal Conflict 

This  indicator  uses  the  UCDP’s  definition  of  conflict.  UCDP  defines  conflict  as:  “a  contested 
incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between 
two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related 
deaths in a year.” Statistics are compiled from the most recent edition of the IISS ACD, which has the 
following  definition  of  armed  conflict-related  fatalities:  ‘Fatality  statistics  relate  to  military  and 
civilian lives lost as a direct result of an armed conflict’. 

Number, Duration and Role in External Conflicts  

This indicator measures the number and duration of extraterritorial conflicts a country is involved 
in. Information for this indicator is sourced from the UCDP Battle-Related Deaths Dataset. The score 
for a country is determined by adding all individual conflict scores where that country is involved as 
an actor in a conflict outside its legal boundaries. Conflicts are not counted against a country if they 
have already been counted against that country in the number and duration of internal conflicts 
indicator. 

21 (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019) 
22 (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019) 

Annex – page 10 

 
 
 
 
                                                           
Number of Deaths From Organised External Conflict 
This indicator uses the UCDP’s definition of conflict as “a contested incompatibility that concerns 
government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least 
one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in a year”. When no data 
was  provided,  several  alternative  sources  have  been  used:  International  Institute  for  Strategic 
Studies (IISS) Armed Conflict Database; the Iraq Coalition Casualty Count, and the EIU. 

Each of these are scored out of 1-5. The NI uses the average score across all of these indicators for 
the Violent Conflict domain. 

Source: IEP, 163 countries, Latest Year of Data: 2018. 

URL: http://ww.visionofhumanity.org 

Domain 11 – Weapons of Mass Destruction23 
Indicator: Nuclear and Heavy Weapons Capabilities Indicator and Non-Proliferation Score. 

Full Description:  This indicator is based on two scores 

•  The Global Peace Index Nuclear and Heavy Weapons Capabilities Score (HWC): a categorised 
system for rating the destructive capability of a country’s stock of heavy weapons. Holdings 
are those of government forces and do not include holdings of armed opposition groups. 
Heavy  weapons  numbers  were  determined  using  a  combination  of  the  International 
Institute  for  Strategic  Studies,  The  Military  Balance  and  the  United  Nations  Register  of 
Conventional  Arms.  Countries  are  given  a  score of 1  for low military  capabilities.  Nuclear 
countries are scored 5. 

•  Non-Proliferation  Score  (NPS):  If  a  country  is  a  signatory  to  the  Treaty  on  the  Non-
Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons they are given a score of 1. If they are not they receive a 
score of zero. 

The final WMD score used in the NI is calculated by HWC – NPS. 

Rationale: This indicator is a categorised system for rating the destructive capability of a country’s 
stock  of  heavy  weapons,  including  only  those  of  government,  and  its  commitment  to  non-
proliferation of Nuclear weapons. 

Source: Institute for Economics and Peace, 163 countries, Latest Year of Data: 2019 

URL: http://www.visionofhumanity.org 

23 (Institute for Economics and Peace, 2019) 

Annex – page 11 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
Data Availability and Imputation  
The  methodology  developed  has  been  designed  to  be  in  line  with  other  prominent  global 
indicators, and substantial effort has been made to populate the index with the best existing country 
information.  However,  the  major  challenge  to  developing  a  harmonized  composite  index  is  in 
attempting  to  overcome  the  paucity  of  consistent  and  comprehensive  data  across  very  diverse 
countries around the world. They vary significantly not just in terms of demographic and geographic 
characteristics,  but  also  in  terms  of  socio-economic characteristics  which often  times  can impact 
data collection and quality.  

The issue of data gaps is a common challenge to creating an index. The OECD recommend a number 
of  statistical  techniques  for  dealing  with  data  imputation  to  fill  in  data  gaps.24  Table  2  lists  the 
approaches used in the NI. Using the combination of these techniques, the NI represents the use of 
the best possible data without an overly complex methodology.  

TABLE 2: Data Imputation methods 

Method 
Cold Deck Imputation 

Description 
Replacing  the  missing  value 
with  a  value 
from  another 
source. 

Hot Deck Imputation 

Replacing  the  missing  value 
with a regional average. 

Application in NI 
The NI uses this either when it uses 
the  most  recent  data  point  in  a 
series  as  the  current  data  point,  or 
uses additional country statistics to 
fill in gaps. 
The NI uses hot deck imputation for 
data  that  is  not  available  for  all 
countries. 

Weighting the Indicators 

As  the  EU  Global  Strategy  2018  does  not  rank  domains  in  order  of  priority,  the  NI  uses  equal 
weighting across all domains, simplifying the calculation of the final NI score. 

Domain Calculations  

This section illustrates how each indicator, and hence each domain is treated. The Domain process 
is in two stages 1) data collection and 2) imputation and banding. 

Banding  data  in  the  case  of  the  NI  is  a  way  of  dealing  with  comparing  otherwise  incongruous 
information. It takes each indicator and scales them to a score between 0 and 1 relative to the whole 
data set. To do this, appropriate minimum and maximum values for the data set are decided such 
that anything below the minimum is assigned zero, and anything above the maximum is assigned 
1, and everything else is scaled evenly between the two. Therefore, in year y, after data imputation, 
the banded score is calculated for indicator i by Equation 1. 

24 ( Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2008) 

Annex – page 12 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                           
 
Equation 1: Banding Equation 

𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖 =

𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐵𝐵𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵𝑑𝑑𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑉𝑉𝐵𝐵𝑉𝑉𝐶𝐶𝑒𝑒 𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵 𝑌𝑌𝑒𝑒𝐵𝐵𝐶𝐶 𝐶𝐶 𝑖𝑖 − 𝑚𝑚𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵𝐶𝐶𝑚𝑚 𝐼𝐼𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑖
𝑚𝑚𝐵𝐵𝑚𝑚𝐼𝐼𝑚𝑚𝐶𝐶𝑚𝑚 𝐼𝐼𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑖 − 𝑚𝑚𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵𝐶𝐶𝑚𝑚 𝐼𝐼𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑖

Banding  this  way indicates  the  implicit  assumption that  higher  levels of  the  indicator  are  better. 
However, higher levels of some indicators, such as the Global Terrorism Index score, represent a less 
desirable  case  for  countries.  In  such  cases,  the  banded  score  is  reverse  and  is  calculated  by 
Equation 2. 

Equation 2: Reverse banding equation 

𝑅𝑅𝑒𝑒𝑅𝑅𝑒𝑒𝐶𝐶𝑅𝑅𝑒𝑒 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖 = 1 −

𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐵𝐵𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵𝑑𝑑𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑉𝑉𝐵𝐵𝑉𝑉𝐶𝐶𝑒𝑒 𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵 𝑌𝑌𝑒𝑒𝐵𝐵𝐶𝐶 𝐶𝐶 𝑖𝑖 − 𝑚𝑚𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵𝐶𝐶𝑚𝑚 𝐼𝐼𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑖
𝑚𝑚𝐵𝐵𝑚𝑚𝐼𝐼𝑚𝑚𝐶𝐶𝑚𝑚 𝐼𝐼𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑖 − 𝑚𝑚𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵𝐶𝐶𝑚𝑚 𝐼𝐼𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑖

The banded indicator score for each country is then the domain score, as each domain is measured 
by only one indicator. Each domain score lies between zero and one.  

An integral part of this process is to set appropriate minimum and maximum cut off values for the 
banded  scores.  There  are empirical  and  normative methods  available  for  doing  this.  While  some 
data  may  be  distributed  normally  and  therefore  lend  itself  well  to  standard  and  well  defined 
mathematical techniques such as defining outliers as those greater than three standard deviations 
from  the  mean,  other  data  sets  do  not  follow  well  behaved  trends.  The  final  choice  of  which 
technique  is  used  must  depend  on  a  number  of  considerations:  the  nature  of  the  data,  the 
underlying distribution, the purpose of the index, what information is being conveyed, etc. Upon 
investigation of the global datasets used in the YDI, very few of the distributions can be classified as 
normal. The presence of outliers affects not only the average, but the variance, skewing both the 
min and max.  

To account for this, IEP in some instances set artificial minimums and maximums to ensure results 
are not too heavily influenced by outliers. In the cases where outliers are present, the lower bound 
set for the banding process are set as the lowest data point that is within 1.5 times the interquartile 
range below the first quartile (where the interquartile range is defined as the distance between the 
first and third quartiles). Similarly the upper bound set for the banding process are set as the largest 
data point that is within 1.5 times the interquartile range above the third quartile.  

Aggregating Domain Scores to Final NI Score 
Since each domain is weighted equally in terms of threat significance, the final aggregated NI score 
can  be  calculated  as  the  average  of  the  eleven  domain  scores.  Thus  the  final  NI  score  is  a  value 
between zero and ten for each country in each year. 

𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝐼𝐼 𝑆𝑆𝐼𝐼𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑒𝑒 = 10  ×  

𝐷𝐷11
𝑖𝑖=𝐷𝐷1

∑

𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐵𝐵𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵𝑑𝑑𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐵𝐵𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑑 𝑆𝑆𝐼𝐼𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑒𝑒𝑖𝑖

11

Annex – page 13 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Bibliography 
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composite indicators: methodology and user guide. Retrieved from Handbook on 
constructing composite indicators: methodology and user guide: 
http://www.oecd.org/sdd/42495745.pdf 

Alberto Alesina, S. P. (2019). Organized Crime, Violence, and Politics. The Review of Economic 

Studies, 86(2), 457-499. 

Centre for Systemic Peace. (2019, May 3). PolityIV Datasets. Retrieved from PolityIV Datasets: 

http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html 

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https://fragilestatesindex.org/ 

Gail Cohen, F. J. (2011). Measuring Energy Security: Trends in the Diversification of Oil and Natural Gas 

Supplies. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp1139.pdf 

Global Disinformation Index. (2019, May 3). Global Disinformation Index. Retrieved from Global 

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Goldmann, M. (2012). Sovereign Debt Criss as Threats to the Peace: Restructuring under Chapter 

VII of the UN Charter? Goettingen Journal of International Law, Vol. 4, 153-175. 

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Institute for Economics and Peace. (2019, May 3). Global Terrorism Index. Retrieved from Global; 

Terrorism Index: http://visionofhumanity.org/indexes/terrorism-index/ 

International Telecommunication Union. (2019, May 3). Global Cyber Security Index. Retrieved from 

Global Cyber Security Index: https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Cybersecurity/Pages/global-
cybersecurity-index.aspx 

Reinhardt, T. C. (2009, October 29). International Finance, Predatory States, and Civil Conflict . 

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Ukranian Prism Foreign Policy Council. (2018, May 3). Disinformation Resilience in Central and 

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United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. (2010). United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. 

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https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2018 

Annex – page 15 

 
 
 
 
The  'Normandy  Index'  aims  to  measure  the  level  of 
conflict  in  the  world.  It  is  to  be  presented  for  the  first 
time  on  the  occasion  of  the  Normandy  Global  Peace 
Forum  in  June  2019,  as  a  result  of  the  partnership 
between  the  European  Parliament  and  the  region  of 
Normandy.  

Q
A
-
0
4
-
1
9
-
4
4
3
-
E
N
N

-

The  Index  has  been  designed  and  prepared  by  the 
European  Parliamentary  Research  Service  (EPRS)  and 
developed  by  the  Institute  for  Economics  and  Peace. 
This  paper  sets  out  the  initial  findings  of  the  2019 
exercise  and  explains  how  the  index  can  be  used  to 
compare  peace  –  defined  on  the  basis  of  a  given 
country's 
of 
predetermined threats – across countries and regions. It 
is complemented by 25 individual country case studies, 
derived from the Index. 

performance 

against 

range 

a 

The  paper  is  part  of  the  EPRS  contribution  to  the 
Normandy Global Peace Forum, alongside two studies: 
on the EU's contribution to peace and security in 2019, 
and on the EU's support for peace in Colombia. 

This is a publication of the Members' Research Service 
EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service 

This document is prepared for, and addressed to, the Members and staff of the European 
Parliament as background material to assist them in their parliamentary work. The content of 
the document is the sole responsibility of its author(s) and any opinions expressed herein should 
not be taken to represent an official position of the Parliament. 

PE 637.946 
ISBN 978-92-846-4897-9 
doi:10.2861/156107