COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Accompanying the document Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions United in delivering the Energy Union and Climate Action - Setting the foundations for a successful clean energy transition
Date: 2019-06-18
Institutions: Directorate-General for Energy, European Commission
Subjects: EU Member State, EU energy policy, electrical energy, energy efficiency, energy grid, greenhouse gas, innovation, reduction of gas emissions, renewable energy, self-sufficiency in energy

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 18.6.2019  SWD(2019) 212 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Accompanying the document Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions United in delivering the Energy Union and Climate Action - Setting the foundations for a successful clean energy transition {COM(2019) 285 final} - {SWD(2019) 213 final}  
 
 
THE GOVERNANCE REGULATION, LEGAL BASIS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF 
NATIONAL ENERGY AND CLIMATE PLANS 

The  Regulation  on  the  Governance  of  the  Energy  Union  and  Climate  Action  (Governance 
Regulation)1  entered  into  force  on  24  December  2018.  It  sets  up  a  common  framework  for 
energy and climate policies in the European Union and its Member States. This governance 
framework also requires Member States to establish integrated National Energy and Climate 
Plans2 (hereafter the NECPs). 

NECPs have to follow a binding template (defined in Annex I of the Governance Regulation). 
The template spells out in detail the planning provisions to be included in the NECPs. Part 1 
of the template is divided into five parts: i) Framework and process for establishing the plan; 
ii) National objectives, targets and contributions; iii) Policies and measures; iv) A description 
of the current  situation and reference projections;  and v)  Impact assessments  of the policies 
and measures. Part 2 of the template details the list of parameters, variables, energy balances 
and indicators to be reported in the analytical basis section of the NECPs. 

Member States have to show in their NECP how  they will contribute to the achievement of 
the  Energy  Union  objectives,  notably  the  EU  2030  energy  and  climate  objectives.  Those 
include  EU  targets  of  at  least  32%  for  renewable  energy  and  at  least  32.5%  for  energy 
efficiency  as  established  by  the  Governance  Regulation,  Energy  Efficiency  Directive3  and 
Renewable Energy Directive4 that entered into force in late 2018. 

A key element of the governance framework is the iterative process between Commission and 
Member States, which aims at promoting policy coherence and ensuring that the final NECPs 
are fit for purpose. The Commission’s assessment of the draft NECPs is intended to provide 
useful and timely feedback to Member States to help finalise NECPs.  

This  Staff  Working  Document  focuses  on  the  methodology  for  assessment  of  national 
contributions to the EU targets in the areas of renewable energy and energy efficiency as well 
as  for  assessing  the  resulting  EU  wide  greenhouse  gas  emission  reduction,  whereas  the 
Commission’s overall assessment of the NECPs has a broader scope. The assessment of the 
interactions  and  consistency  of  contributions/targets  between  different  dimensions  was 
challenging in light of limited evidence in the draft NECPs. Consistent use of the same input 
parameters  and  application  of  coherent  methodologies  for  setting  national  targets  and 
contributions are needed in the final plans in order to ensure that the interlinkages between all 
Energy Union dimensions are properly taken into account leading to a truly integrated plan. 

1  Regulation  (EU)  2018/1999  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  11  December  2018  on  the 
Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action. 
2 Also referred to as NECPs in other Commission documents. 
3  Directive  (EU)  2018/2002  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  11  December  2018  amending 
Directive 2012/27/EU on energy efficiency. 
4  Directive  (EU)  2018/2001  of  the  European  Parliament  and  of  the  Council  of  11  December  2018  on  the 
promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources. 

1 

 
 
 
 
                                                            
The country-specific  assessment of each Member State's  draft NECP is  contained in a Staff 
Working  Document5, 
the  Commission 
Recommendations that may address, in particular6: 

information 

justifying 

provide 

further 

(i) 

(ii) 

(iii) 

(iv) 

the  level  of  ambition  of  objectives,  targets  and  contributions  with  a  view  to 
collectively  achieving  the  Energy  Union  objectives  as  well  as  the  level  of 
electricity interconnectivity that the Member State aims for in 2030;  
policies  and  measures  relating  to  Member  State-  and  Union-level  objectives  and 
other policies and measures of potential cross-border relevance;  
any  additional  policies  and  measures  that  might  be  required  in  the  integrated 
national energy and climate plans;  
interactions  between  and  consistency  of  existing  and  planned  policies  and 
measures  included  in  the  integrated  national  energy  and  climate  plan  within  one 
dimension and among different dimensions of the Energy Union. 

The Commission’s assessment of draft NECPs is based on the provisions of the Governance 
Regulation without prejudice to other legal obligations.  

Some of the initiatives set out by Member States in draft and final NECPs may entail State 
aid.  Where  relevant,  Member  States  should  make  sure  that  policies  and  measures  in  their 
NECPs  respect  State  aid  rules.  Relevant  policies  and  measures  may  fall  in  the  scope  of  the 
General  Block  Exemption  Regulation  or  should  be  notified  to  the  Commission  as  measures 
for State aid approval. The assessment of draft NECPs cannot be interpreted as approval (or 
indication thereof) under State aid rules.  

Moreover,  Member  States  need  to  ensure  that  policies  and  measures  respect  international 
obligations, for  example  in  the context  of  WTO  Agreements,  and  are  consistent  with  sound 
public finances. 

5 SWD(2019) 231 to 258. 
6  According  to Article  9 of  Regulation  (EU)  2018/1999 of  the  European Parliament  and  of  the  Council of 11 
December 2018 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action. 

2 

 
 
 
                                                            
METHODOLOGY  FOR  THE  ASSESSMENT  OF  THE  NATIONAL  RENEWABLE 
CONTRIBUTIONS AS INCLUDED IN THE DRAFT NECPS 

1.  Summary on the assessment of the national contributions  

In  accordance  to  Article  31  of  the  Governance  Regulation,  where  an  ambition  gap  between 
the Union's 2030 target and the collective contributions of Member States occurs in the area 
of renewable energy, the Commission shall issue Recommendations to Member States whose 
contributions  it  deems  insufficient  in  order  to  increase  their  ambition  to  ensure  a  sufficient 
level of collective ambition. 

Such  process  should  be  informed  by  the  use  of  the  formula  set  out  in  Annex  II  of  the 
Regulation  which  represents  the  objective  criteria  set  out  in  the  Governance  Regulation, 
whilst  having  due  regard  to  other  relevant  circumstances  affecting  renewable  energy 
deployment as indicated by the Member States in their draft NECPs.  

In assessing the ambition against the formula, the following criteria were used: 

x ≤-4% = significantly below 
-4% < x ≤ -2% = below 
-2% < x < 0 % = slightly below 
0% = in line 
0% < x < 2% = slightly above 
2% ≤ x < 5%= above 
5% ≤ x = significantly above 

(With x referring to the Member State’s renewables shares contribution in the draft NECP.) 

The  detailed  assessment  for  each  Member  State  is  found  in  staff  working  documents 
accompanying the Communication. 

In  its  assessment,  the  Commission  has  concluded  that  11  Member  States  submitted 
contributions in line or above the share resulting from applying the agreed methodology (the 
formula of Annex II of the Governance Regulation) with Denmark, Estonia, Spain, Lithuania 
and  Portugal  putting  forward  contributions,  which  are  significantly  higher  than  the  shares 
resulting  from  the  formula.  14  Member  States  submitted  contributions  below  the  share 
resulting  from  the  formula.  Several  Member  States  are  now  called  upon  to  duly  reconsider 
their level of ambition as to ensure that the identified EU “ambition” gap is timely closed with 
the submission of the final NECPs.  

The  level  of  all  reference  points  will  have  to  be  adjusted  in  the  final  plans  to  reflect  the 
revised  national  contribution  in  line  with  the  requirements  of  the  Governance  Regulation 
(2022:  18%  of  the  total  increase  in  the  share  of  renewables  between  the  Member  State’s 
binding 2020 target and its 2030 contribution; 2025: 43%; 2027: 65%).   

3 

 
 
 
 
 
 
2.  Methodology  used  to  identify  national  contributions  and  to  calculate  the  EU-level 

ambition gap in the area of renewable energy  

To assess the existence of an ambition gap at EU-level in the area of renewable energy, the 
Commission  calculated  the  average  of  the  shares  of  renewable  energy  in  gross  final 
consumption of energy in each Member State in 2030, weighted by the respective gross final 
consumption  of  energy  of  Member  State  in  2030,  which  is  the  EU-level  renewable  energy 
share.  

The Communication presents the ambition gap in the form of a “corridor”, which represents 
conservative surrogate renewable energy shares based on the “EU Reference Scenario 2016” 
or  “With  Existing  Measures”  projections  and  optimistic  surrogate  renewable  energy  shares 
based on the formula of Annex II of the Governance Regulation. 

As regards Member States’ share of renewable energy in Gross Final Consumption of Energy 
in 20307(GFCoE), the Commission used the following data:  

-  For Member States providing a contribution in the form of a single share, this share was 

used. 

-  For  Member  States  providing  their  contribution  as  a  range  (Austria,  Luxembourg),  the 

lower bound of the range was used. 

-  For  Member  States  providing  contributions  dependant  on  the  statistical  methodology 
retained for accounting for renewable cooling (Malta, Greece), the lower share was used.  
-  For  Member  States  providing  scenarios  without  confirming  a  contribution  (Ireland, 
Sweden)  or  not  providing  any  contribution  at  all  (United  Kingdom),  the  Commission 
assumed a contribution. This assumed contribution was: 

o  For the low bound of the ambition gap assessment: the lower of (i) the renewable 
share provided by the Member in its With Existing Measures scenario and (ii) the 
renewable share shown in the EU Reference Scenario 20168.  

o  For the high bound of the ambition gap assessment: the renewable share resulting 
from applying the formula contained in Annex II of the Governance Regulation.  

As  regards  Member  States’  GFCoE  in  2030,  the  Commission  used  the  following  surrogate 
data 

-  For Member States providing the GFCoE in absolute value following the methodology of 
Regulation  (EC)  1099/2008  and  also  the  recast  of  the  Renewable  Directive  2018/2001 
(Eurostat “SHARES” 9 methodology), this value was used. 

7  https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-datasets/-/sdg_07_40; 

http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=nrg_ind_ren&lang=en 

8 https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/20160713%20draft_publication_REF2016_v13.pdf 
9 https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/energy/data/shares 

4 

 
 
 
  
 
 
 
                                                            
-  For Member  States  not providing  or confirming  the  GFCoE in  absolute value,  the gross 
final  consumption  of  energy  of  the  EU  Reference  Scenario  2016  was  used  for  the  low 
bound while the EUCO32-32.5 scenario10 was used for the high bound. 

10 EUCO32-32.5 scenario results published in the Technical note on Member States results of the EUCO32-32.5 
scenario available here: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/energy-modelling/euco-scenarios  

5 

 
 
                                                            
3.  Overview of the national renewables contributions 

2020 Framework 

2020  

2030 Framework 

2030 Framework 

MS 

2017 

2020 
target 

MS  RES Formula 
contribution 

Draft NECP 

Ref 16 

EUCO 
3232.5 

PRIMES Scenarios 

BE 
BG 
CZ 
DK 
DE 
EE 
IE 

9.06% 
18.73% 
14.76% 
35.77% 
15.45% 
29.21% 
10.65% 

13% 
16% 
13% 
30% 
18% 
25% 
16% 

BE 
BG 
CZ 
DK 
DE 
EE 
IE 

EL 

16.32% 

18% 

EL 

ES 
FR 
HR 
IT 
CY 

LV 

LT 

LU 
HU 
MT 

NL 
AT 
PL 
PT 
RO 
SI 
SK 
FI 
SE 
UK 

17.51% 
16.3% 
27.29% 
18.27% 
9.85% 

39.01% 

25.84% 

7.5% 
13.33% 
7.17% 

6.6% 
32.56% 
10.9% 
28.12% 
24.47% 
21.55% 
11.49% 
41.01% 
54.5% 
10.21% 

20% 
23% 
20% 
17% 
13% 

40% 

23% 

11% 
13% 
10% 

14% 
34% 
15% 
31% 
24% 
25% 
14% 
38% 
49% 
15% 

ES 
FR 
HR 
IT 
CY 

LV 

LT 

LU 
HU 
MT 

NL 
AT 
PL 
PT 
RO 
SI 
SK 
FI 
SE 
UK 

25% 
27% 
23% 
46% 
30% 
37% 
31% 

31% 

32% 
33% 
32% 
29% 
23% 

50% 

34% 

22% 
23% 
21% 

26% 
46% 
25% 
42% 
34% 
37% 
24% 
51% 
64% 
27% 

 18.3% 
25% 
 20.8% 
55% 
30.0% 
42% 
Between 15.8% and 
27.7%  
Between 31% and 
32%  
 42% 
 32% 
36.4% 
30% 
 19%  

45% 

45% 

23%-25% 
 20% 
Between 10.6% and 
13.3%  
27-35% 
45-50% 
 21% 
47% 
27.9% 
27% 
18% 
50% 
65% 
- 

16% 
28% 
15% 
39% 
21% 
28% 
18% 

30% 

27% 
26% 
25% 
24% 
18% 

42% 

25% 

8% 
14% 
13% 

16% 
37% 
18% 
38% 
30% 
28% 
15% 
49% 
61% 
17% 

22% 
33% 
21% 
48% 
30% 
37% 
33% 

39% 

36% 
29% 
34% 
32% 
24% 

48% 

32% 

12% 
20% 
20% 

22% 
45% 
27% 
43% 
36% 
35% 
19% 
52% 
68% 
28% 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4.  The role of ambitious contributions in the EU-level “ambition” gap 

If all the 17 Member States that put forward contributions below the share resulting from the 
formula and did not confirm or put forward a contribution were to increase their ambition in 
line with the formula shares, this would lead to  an increase  of the EU-level ambition to the 
level of 33%, i.e. 1 percentage point above the EU-level binding target of 32%. Such a slim 
margin reinforces the need for all such Member States to increase their ambition in line 
with  the  shares  resulting  from  the  formula  in  order  to  avoid  that  an  ambition  gap 
emerges from the final national energy and climate plans.  

7 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
METHODOLOGY  FOR  THE  ASSESSMENT  OF  THE  NATIONAL  ENERGY 
EFFICIENCY CONTRIBUTIONS AS INCLUDED IN THE DRAFT NECPS 

1.  Overall conclusions on the assessment of the national contributions  

The national contributions provided in the draft NECPs were assessed from the perspective of 
the  effort  needed  to  achieve  collectively  the  EU  targets.  For  this  purpose,  the  level  of  the 
proposed  contributions  was  compared  to  the  2017  statistical  data  for  Primary  Energy 
Consumption (PEC) and Final Energy Consumption (FEC) and to the 2020  national targets. 
Specific  national  conditions,  described  in  the  plan  as  affecting  future  energy  consumption 
trends, were also taken into account. However, information was limited in that respect in the 
majority of plans. 

It  is  essential  that  national  contributions  are  set  and  expressed  in  line  with  the  existing 
legislation in order to enable a proper assessment and future monitoring of progress. The final 
NECPs should also clearly explain how national contributions were set taking into account the 
cost-effective energy savings potential and any other national circumstances affecting energy 
consumption levels.  

The  result  of  the  assessment  indicates  that  only  few  Member  States  have  proposed  at  this 
stage  a  level  of  contributions  that  would  seem  sufficient:  Spain,  Italy  and  Luxembourg  for 
both PEC and FEC, the Netherlands for PEC, France for FEC.  

The  level  of  efforts  is  rather  modest  for  Austria,  Poland  for  both  PEC  and  FEC,  Belgium, 
France, Portugal, Sweden for PEC, Czechia, Latvia, the Netherlands for FEC.  

Member  States  with  a  rather  low  level  of  ambition  include  Bulgaria,  Estonia,  Croatia, 
Slovakia for both PEC and FEC, Czechia, Latvia for PEC, Finland, Belgium and Sweden for 
FEC.  

Remaining Member States indicated a very low level of ambition, as the measures proposed 
would  not  prevent  an  increase  in  energy  consumption.  To  this  group  belong  Denmark, 
Ireland,  Greece,  Cyprus,  Lithuania,  Hungary,  Malta  and  Romania  for  both  PEC  and  FEC, 
Slovenia for PEC, Portugal for FEC.  

The assessment is not provided for the UK and Germany, which did not express in their draft 
plan a national contribution to the EU energy efficiency goal, which result in their plan being 
mostly limited to the description of current policies. 

8 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Figure  2  and  3:  Differences  of  the  2030  contributions  from  the  2020  targets  and  2017  data,  for 
primary and final energy consumption 

Source: Information from the draft plans and provided by MS, EU Commission calculations. 

2.  Status of the national contributions and use of surrogates for the countries without 

national contribution 

Not  all  Member  States  provided  their  contributions  for  energy  efficiency  in  the  plans. 
Notably,  Germany  and  the  UK  have  not  indicated  any  national  contributions  for  energy 
efficiency. Germany stated that the contribution would be formulated in the Final Plan, based 
on the national energy efficiency strategy, which is currently under preparation. Following the 
provisions  of  the  Governance  Regulation  (Article  31),  to  assess  whether  the  sum  of  the 
national  contributions  is  sufficient  to  the  achievement  of  the  EU  goal  for  2030  (EU  gap 
assessment), surrogate data were used for the countries for which a contribution was missing. 
To  take  into  account  the  uncertainties  about  the  contributions  from  those  countries,  a  range 

9 

 
 
 
 
 
defined  by  two  surrogate  data  was  selected  and  used  in  the  assessment,  instead  of  a  single 
value. The higher value of the range for final and primary energy consumption represents a 
figure  compatible  with  business-as-usual  conditions,  while  the  more  ambitious  and  lower 
values  in  absolute  terms  reflect  a  contribution  compatible  with  the  collective  EU  goal. 
Surrogate  data  were  selected  among  different  sources,  from  projections  resulting  from 
modelling  exercises  (Primes  Reference  scenario  and  EUCO32325)  and  from  values  derived 
from statistical data.  

For  those  countries  which  have  indicated  their  national  contributions  in  section  2.2.  of  the 
plans  (National  objectives  and  targets.  Dimension  energy  efficiency),  in  some  cases 
corrections had to be made to the values submitted. The main reasons were recalculations of 
contributions  expressed  in  energy  intensity  or  inconsistencies  in  the  application  of  the 
statistical definition of primary or of final energy consumption (e.g. PEC covered non-energy 
use,  ambient  heat  was  included  or  international  aviation  was  in-  or  excluded,  the  latter  still 
requiring  further  clarifications).  Table  1  indicates  the  national  contributions  considered  for 
this assessment. 

Table 1: Overview of the main corrections made and use of surrogate data 

Member State 

National contributions 
(Mtoe) 

PEC 

FEC 

Corrections made or use of surrogate data 

Belgium 

Bulgaria 

Czechia 
Denmark 
Germany 
Estonia 

Ireland 

Greece 
Spain 

France 

Croatia 

Italy 

Cyprus 
Latvia 

Lithuania 

Luxembourg 

Hungary 

Malta 

39.0 

17.7 
41.3 
18.6 
201-251.7 
5.5 

15.9 
25.0 
98.2 

Values corrected following exchanges at 
technical level 

33.1 

8.7 
23.7 
15.8 

156.5-197.4  Surrogates from EU modelling 

2.7  Assumed FEC figure from WAM 

Assumed figures from the scenario based on 
REF2016 assumptions 

13.0 
18.1 
74.4 

201.8 

124.9 

8.2 

6.9 

125.0 
2.6 
4.3 

10.2 

3.5 

27.0 
1.2 

103.8 
2.2 
3.6 

8.0 

3.3 

18.6 
0.9 

Values corrected following exchanges at 
technical level 
Values corrected following exchanges at 
technical level 
Values corrected following exchanges at 
technical level 

Values corrected following exchanges at 
technical level 
Assumed less ambitious figures from the range, 
PEC calculated using the methodology for FEC 
Values corrected following exchanges at 
technical level 

10 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Netherlands  
Austria  

Poland 

Portugal 
Romania 
Slovenia 
Slovakia 
Finland 

Sweden 

United Kingdom 

46.6 
30.0 

90.9 
20.2 
36.7 
7.1 
16.2 
36.1 

44.5 
25.0  Assumed less ambitious figures from the range 
Values corrected following exchanges at 
technical level 

66.2 
17.7 
27.5 

3.9-4.9  Surrogates from EU modelling 

10.8 
26.2 

42.5 
145-168.1 

Values corrected following exchanges at 
technical level 
109.5-126.7  Surrogates from EU modelling 

32.3 

Source: Information from the draft plans and provided by MS, EU Commission calculations. 

3.  Methodology for the assessment of the EU ambition gap11 

The EU ambition gap was determined by summing up the national contributions (Table 2) and 
comparing the value obtained with the absolute levels of the EU energy efficiency target for 
final  and  primary  energy  consumption,  as  illustrated  in  Table  2.  Given  that  the  national 
contributions  for  three  countries  make  use  of  a  range  of  surrogate  data,  the  gap  is  also 
expressed as a range, which goes from a minimum to a maximum level. The span of the range 
is  substantial,  and  this  depends  also  from  the  fact  that  the  countries  covered  with  surrogate 
data represent around 30% of the EU total energy consumption. 

Table 2: EU gap calculation 

EU28 target (A) 
Total national contributions  
Total national contributions 

Total national contributions 

+ Lower surrogate range (B) 

+ Higher surrogate range (C) 

Gap - lower end (B-A) 
Gap - higher end (C-A) 

PEC (Mtoe) 
1273.0 
971.2 

FEC (Mtoe) 
956.0 
711.8 

1316.2 

1391.0 
43.2 
118.0 

981.7 

1040.8 
25.7 
84.8 

Source: Information from the draft plans and provided by MS, EU Commission calculations. 

11 Article 31 of the Governance Regulation states that “Where a gap [] occurs in the area of energy efficiency, 
the  Commission  shall,  in  particular,  evaluate  the  relevant  circumstances  listed  in  Article  6(2),  information 
provided  by  Member  States  in  their  integrated  national  energy  and  climate  plans,  results  from  modelling 
exercises in relation to future trends in energy consumption and other complementary analysis as appropriate.” 

11 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                            
4.  Methodology for the assessment of the national contributions 

For  energy  efficiency,  the  Governance  Regulation  indicates  that  the  Commission  shall 
evaluate  the  specific  elements  described  in  the  plan  by  MSs  to  justify  the  level  of  their 
national  contribution  as  well  as  modelling  results  and  any  other  complementary  analysis 
(Article  31).  Two  criteria  have  been  used  for  the  assessment  based  on  the  following  data 
sources: 

-  The 2017 statistical data of primary and final energy consumption: it was considered 
that national contributions, to be on a pathway compatible with the collective efforts 
necessary to achieve the 2030 goal, should reduce energy consumption from the year 
2017, keeping in mind that the EU as a whole should reduce it by 18,4% and 14,8% 
respectively for PEC and FEC compared to 2017 data; 

-  The  2020  national  targets  for  energy  efficiency:  given  that  the  EU  2030  goal  would 
require  additional  efforts  in  comparison  to  the  2020  target  (by  more  than  11%  in 
comparison  to  the  Union’s  2020  target),  it  was  considered  that,  similarly,  national 
contributions should follow the same direction, and earmark an increase in ambition in 
relation to the 2020 commitments; 

The national  contributions were compared to the  values  corresponding to those criteria, and 
on the basis of their distance to them, they were assessed following a scale going from very 
low to sufficient. Even if the EU average is not automatically considered as the right level of 
efforts at Member States level, it was used as an approximate benchmark for comparing the 
proposed  level  of  ambition  by  Member  States.  These  criteria  have  been  preferred  over  the 
available  EU  modelling  results,  which  at  the  moment  do  not  fully  reflect  all  national 
circumstances  affecting  primary  and  final  energy  consumption  –  a  factor  to  be  taken  into 
account  in  the  evaluation  of  energy  efficiency  contributions  as  foreseen  by  the  Governance 
Regulation. It is also important to note that this assessment is based on the assumption that the 
national contributions should add up to the EU target i.e. the ambition gap is to be covered by 
Member States contributions. 

The level of ambition was assessed as: 

- 

sufficient  if  a  national  2030  contribution  represented  a  higher  reduction  in  energy 
consumption than at the EU level,  

-  modest if a reduction was lower than at the EU level but higher than 5 %,  
- 

low  if  a  reduction  was  in  the  range  0-5%  or  there  was  a  small  increase  for  one 
criterion,  

-  very low if values for both criteria increased.  

Furthermore, the recent trends until 2017 and the ambition of the 2020 targets have also been 
considered  when  assessing  the  level  of  a  reduction,  meaning  that  the  two  criteria  are  not 
always of equal weight. 

12 

 
 
 
 
It  is  important  to  emphasise  that  this  is  a  rather  technical  assessment  not  fully  taking  into 
account national circumstances, which have been rarely elaborated Member States. As most 
of the draft plans have had little justification of their level of ambition, it was not possible at 
this stage to apply qualitative criteria in a consistent manner. 

The results are shown in tables 3 and 4.  

Table 3: National contributions for primary energy consumption 

Target 
for 2020  

Contribution 
for 2030  

Compared 
to 2020 

Compared 
to 2017 

Assessment 

Member State 

Belgium 

Bulgaria 

Czechia 

Denmark 

Germany 

Estonia 

Ireland 

Greece 

Spain 

France 

Croatia 

Italy 

Cyprus 

Latvia 

Lithuania 

Luxembourg 

Hungary 

Malta 

Netherlands  

Austria  

Poland 

Portugal 

Romania 

Slovenia 

Slovakia 

Finland 

Sweden 

2017 data 

(Mtoe)  

49.1 

18.3 

40.1 

17.7 

 (Mtoe) 
43.7 

16.9 

44.3 

16.9 

298.3 

276.6 

5.6 

14.4 

23.1 

125.6 

239.5 

8.3 

6.5 

13.9 

24.7 

122.6 

226.6 

10.7 

148.9 

158.0 

2.5 

4.5 

6.2 

4.3 

24.5 

0.8 

64.5 

32.5 

99.1 

22.8 

32.4 

6.6 

16.1 

31.7 

46.1 

2.2 

5.4 

6.5 

4.5 

24.1 

0.8 

60.7 

31.5 

96.4 

22.5 

43.0 

7.1 

16.4 

35.9 

43.4 

(Mtoe) 

39.0 

17.7 

41.3 

18.6 

-  

5.5 

15.9 

25.0 

98.2 

201.8 

8.2 

125.0 

2.6 

4.3 

10.2 

3.5 

27.0 

1.2 

46.6 

30.0 

90.9 

20.2 

36.7 

7.1 

16.2 

36.1 

42.5 

(%) 
-10.8% 

4.9% 

-6.9% 

10.3% 

-  

-15.4% 

14.6% 

1.2% 

-19.9% 

-10.9% 

-23.1% 

-20.9% 

16.6% 

-19.5% 

57.3% 

(%) 
-20.6% 

-3.5% 

2.9% 

5.0% 

-  

-2.7% 

10.5% 

8.1% 

-21.8% 

-15.7% 

-1.2% 

-16.1% 

3.1% 

-3.1% 

65.5% 

Modest 

Low 

Low 

Very low 

Low 

Very low 

Very low 

Sufficient 

Modest 

Low 

Sufficient 

Very low 

Low 

Very low 

-23.0% 

-19.7% 

Sufficient 

12.0% 

40.5% 

10.3% 

40.5% 

Very low 

Very low 

-23.3% 

-27.8% 

Sufficient 

-4.8% 

-5.7% 

-10.2% 

-14.7% 

-1.0% 

-1.3% 

0.7% 

-2.1% 

-7.8% 

-8.2% 

-11.3% 

13.3% 

6.2% 

0.1% 

13.9% 

-7.9% 

 - 

Modest 

Modest 

Modest 

Very low 

Very low 

Low 

Very low 

Modest 

United Kingdom 

177.0 

177.6 

- 

 - 

EU28 

1561.0 

1273.0 

-11.4% 

-18.4% 

Source: Information from the draft plans and provided by MS, EU Commission calculations. 

13 

 
 
 
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 4: National contributions for final energy consumption 

Member State 

2017 
data 

Target for 
2020  

Contribution 
for 2030  

Compared 
to 2020 

Compared 
to 2017 

Assessment 

 (Mtoe) 

(Mtoe) 

(%) 

Belgium 

Bulgaria 

Czechia 

Denmark 

Germany 

Estonia 

Ireland 

Greece 

Spain 

France 

Croatia 

Italy 

Cyprus 

Latvia 

Lithuania 

Luxembourg 

Hungary 

Malta 

Netherlands  

Austria  

Poland 

Portugal 

Romania 

Slovenia 

Slovakia 

Finland 

Sweden 

(Mtoe)  
36.0 

9.9 

25.5 
14.6 

32.5 

8.6 

25.3 

14.7 

218.7 

194.3 

2.9 

11.8 

16.8 

84.2 

148.9 

6.9 

115.2 

1.9 

4.0 

5.3 

4.2 

18.5 

0.6 

50.3 

28.4 

71.0 

16.6 

23.2 

4.9 

11.1 

25.2 

32.6 

2.8 

11.7 

18.4 

87.2 

138.1 

7.0 

124.0 

1.9 

4.5 

4.3 

4.2 

14.4 

0.6 

52.2 

25.1 

71.6 

17.4 

30.3 

5.1 

9.2 

26.7 

30.3 

1.8% 

0.4% 

-6.6% 

7.5% 

 - 

-1.9% 

11.5% 

-1.6% 

(%) 
-8.2% 

-12.3% 

Low 

Low 

-7.2% 

Modest 

8.5% 

Very low 

-  

-4.2% 

Low 

10.9% 

Very low 

8.0% 

Very low 

33.1 

8.7 

23.7 

15.8 

- 

2.7 

13.0 

18.1 

74.4 

-14.7% 

-11.6% 

Sufficient 

124.9 

6.9 

-9.6% 

-1.6% 

-16.1% 

Sufficient 

-1.1% 

Low 

103.8 

-16.3% 

-9.9% 

Sufficient 

2.2 

3.6 

8.0 

3.3 

18.6 

0.9 

44.5 

25.0 

66.2 

17.7 

27.5 

- 

10.8 

26.2 

32.3 

- 

15.2% 

18.8% 

Very low 

-20.1% 

-11.1% 

Modest 

86.8% 

49.4% 

Very low 

-22.1% 

-21.9% 

Sufficient 

29.0% 

35.4% 

-14.7% 

-0.3% 

-7.6% 

1.7% 

-9.2% 

-  

16.7% 

-1.6% 

6.7% 

-  

0.4% 

Very low 

37.7% 

Very low 

-11.6% 

-12.0% 

-6.7% 

Modest 

Modest 

Modest 

6.9% 

Very low 

18.6% 

Very low 

-  

-3.1% 

Low 

4.2% 

Very low 

-0.7% 

Low 

-  

956.1 

-11.6% 

-14.8% 

United Kingdom 

EU28 

133.3 

1122.3 

129.2 

Source: Information from the draft plans and provided by MS, EU Commission calculations. 

14 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
METHODOLOGY USED IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE EU WIDE GREENHOUSE 
GAS EMISSION REDUCTION RESULTING FROM THE DRAFT NECPS 

1.  Methodology for the assessment of the EU total greenhouse gas emissions reduction  

Aggregated total  greenhouse  gas  emissions reductions,  excluding  emissions  and absorptions 
from  land  use,  land  use  change  and  forestry  (LULUCF),  and  including  emissions  from 
outgoing  international  aviation,  have  been  estimated  based  on  Member  States’  information 
included in the draft plans:  

-  Where  economy-wide  ‘With  Additional  Measures’  (WAM)  projections  were  available, 
these  were used  to  represent  the impact  of  existing  and  planned  measures.  This  was  the 
case  for  sixteen  Member  States  (Belgium,  Croatia,  Czech  Republic,  Denmark,  Finland, 
France,  Greece,  Hungary,  Ireland,  Italy,  Poland,  Portugal,  Romania,  Slovakia,  Spain, 
United  Kingdom).  Denmark  did  not  provide  a WAM  but  a  point  estimate  for  additional 
reductions in 2030 compared to the scenario with existing measures. 

-  Economy-wide  national  greenhouse  gas  emissions  reduction  targets  were  used  for  two 
Member States that did not provide WAM projections but did provide a target excluding 
LULUCF (Germany, Netherlands).  

-  Where  this  was  not  available,  projections  With  Existing  Measures  (WEM)  were  used. 
This  was  the  case  for  eight  Member  States  (Austria,  Bulgaria,  Cyprus,  Estonia,  Latvia, 
Lithuania, Luxembourg, Sweden).  

-  For the remaining two Member States (Malta and Slovenia), the EU Reference Scenario 

2016 Projection was used for gap filling.  

-  1990 base year emissions were extracted from the EEA data viewer (on 29/05/2019). 

Five Member States provided 2030 projections for international aviation (Belgium, Denmark, 
Hungary,  Latvia,  Slovakia).  For  the  other  Member  States  EU  Reference  Scenario  2016 
projections  were  used  for  this  sector  (deducting  2017  domestic  aviation  emissions  using 
inventory data as extracted from the EEA data viewer to avoid double counting). As check for 
uncertainties, if instead historic growth rates from the period 1990-2017 were applied on the 
2017  international  aviation  inventory  data,  estimations  show  results  close  to  the  -40% 
greenhouse gas emission target but a risk that it would not be achieved. 

While  this  method  is  open  to  a  number  of  uncertainties,  it  still  represents  a  relatively 
conservative estimate of planned greenhouse gas reductions and ambition, because for eleven 
Member  States  an  ambition  reflecting  just  the  current  measures  was  used  (WEM  or  EU 
Reference Scenario 2016).  

15 

 
 
 
 
 
Table 5: Overview of 2030 projected greenhouse gas emission estimates 

Member State 

1990 emissions 
(Mt CO2-eq.) 
150 
103 
200 
72 
1263 
41 
56 
106 
293 
557 
32 
522 
6 
27 
49 
13 
94 
2.3 
226 
80 
475 
61 
249 
19 
73 
72 
73 
810 
5723 
Source: Information from the draft integrated national energy and climate plans, Greenhouse 
Gas Emission Inventories, EU Reference Scenario 2016, Commission calculations. 

2030 estimation 
(Mt CO2-eq.) 
108 
55 
111 
42 
589 
17 
58 
74 
245 
330 
22 
339 
9 
11 
22 
11 
57 
2.0 
123 
76 
369 
41 
119 
16 
39 
42 
48 
399 
3377 

Belgium 
Bulgaria 
Czechia 
Denmark 
Germany 
Estonia 
Ireland 
Greece 
Spain 
France 
Croatia 
Italy 
Cyprus 
Latvia 
Lithuania 
Luxembourg 
Hungary 
Malta 
Netherlands 
Austria 
Poland 
Portugal 
Romania 
Slovenia 
Slovakia 
Finland 
Sweden 
United Kingdom 
EU28 

2.  Methodology for the assessment of the EU emissions reduction in non-ETS sectors 

Member States have binding national 2030 targets for sectors not covered by the EU Emission 
Trading System (ETS), and a number of flexibilities how to achieve them. The estimate of the 
EU wide aggregated non-ETS greenhouse gas emission reductions resulting from the policies 
and  measures  in  the  draft  NECPs  focuses  on  the  sectors  covered  by  the  Effort  Sharing 
Regulation.  For  Land  Use,  Land  Use  Change  and  Forestry,  too  limited  quantitative  data  in 
line  with  the  accounting  rules  of  the  LULUCF  Regulation  is  available  in  the  draft  plans  to 
consider  the  related  flexibilities.  The  following  Member  State  specific  projections  for  2030 
effort sharing sector emissions were used, depending on which projections were available: 

  Wherever available in the draft NECPs, the With Additional Measures projections for 
effort sharing sectors, which reflect the combination of existing and planned policies 

16 

 
 
and  measures,  were  used.  This  is  the  case  for  twelve  Member  States  (Belgium, 
Croatia, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Romania 
and  Spain).  Denmark  did  not  provide  a  WAM  but  a  point  estimate  for  additional 
reductions  in 2030 compared to  the scenario  with  existing measures. For  Finland  no 
precise  figures  are  provided  in  the  draft  plan,  hence  a  rough  estimate  based  on  the 
provided graphical information is used. 

  For twelve Member States, the With Existing Measures projections for effort sharing 
sectors  were  used,  as  no  quantification  of  planned  policies  and  measures  has  been 
provided yet in the draft NECP (Austria, Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, Germany, Latvia, 
Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Slovakia and the United  Kingdom). 
For Malta and the United Kingdom no precise figures are provided in the draft plan, 
hence rough estimates based on the provided graphical information are used.  

  For  the  remaining  four  Member  States  (Bulgaria,  Portugal,  Slovenia  and  Sweden) 
which did not provide any WEM or WAM scenario or did not separate effort sharing 
emission in their WEM/WAM scenario, the results of the EU Reference Scenario 2016 
for these Member States was used for gap filling. 

Progress towards the non-ETS target is measured against a 2005 base year which reflects the 
EU ETS scope changes which took place after 2005. If Member States provided information 
on 2005 effort sharing emissions in the draft NECPs, this has therefore been cross checked to 
enable a consistent aggregation and comparison. The following 2005 data has been used:  

  The  following  Member  States  provided  2005  values  which  could  be  used  for  the 
aggregation  as  provided  in  the  draft  national  plans:  Austria,  Denmark,  Estonia, 
Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta and Romania. 

  For the other Member States, including the ten Member States which did not provide 
2005 effort sharing emission values at all, the 2005 base year values as used under the 
Effort  Sharing  Decision  and  published  in  SWD(2018)  453  have  been  used.  Two 
Member  States,  Belgium  and  Poland,  use  a  2005  effort  sharing  emission  estimate 
which  differs  from  the  effort  sharing  base  year  methodology  to  calibrate  their  with 
additional  measures  projection  for  2030.  In  these  cases,  the  2030  projection  results 
have been recalibrated to the 2005 base year value used for the aggregation.  

The  aggregation  yields  projected  EU28  2030  emissions  in  effort  sharing  sectors  of  2078 
million  tons,  which  lead  with  an  aggregated  2005  effort  sharing  base  year  of  2889  million 
tons to the provided estimate of 28% emissions reduction. 

17