Study on the business case of the rail Baltica project and setting up a rail Baltica business network in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
Date: 2019-02-12
Institutions: Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport
Subjects: Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, cross-border transport, mode of transport, project evaluation, rail network, rail transport, railway industry, small and medium-sized enterprises

Study on the Business Case  

of the Rail Baltica Project 

and 

Setting up a Rail Baltica 
Business Network in Finland, 
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and 
Poland 

TRINITI 
Malla Paajanen Consulting 
CIVITTA 
META Advisory Group 
November 2018 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport 
Directorate B — Investment, Innovative & Sustainable Transport 
Unit B.1 — Transport Networks 

Contact: Vera Kissler 

E-mail:  MOVE-B1-CNC@ec.europa.eu 

European Commission 
B-1049 Brussels 

November 2018 

2 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Study on the Business Case  

of the Rail Baltica Project 

and 

Setting up a Rail Baltica 
Business Network in Finland, 
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and 
Poland 

November 2018 

3 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers  
to your questions about the European Union. 
Freephone number (*): 
00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 

(*) 

The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone 

boxes or hotels may charge you). 

LEGAL NOTICE 

This document has been prepared for the European Commission however it reflects the views only of the 
authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information 
contained therein. 
More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://www.europa.eu). 
Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2019 
ISBN 978-92-79-99560-6 
doi: 10.2832/81582 
© European Union, 2019 
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. 

November 2018 

4 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Table of contents 

1. Introduction ............................................................................................... 7 
1.2. Members of the Consortium ....................................................................... 8 
1.3. Subcontracting ......................................................................................... 9 
2. Task 1: Study on the Business Case of Rail Baltica ..................................... 7 
3. Task 2: Setting up a Rail Baltica Business Network ...................................55 
3.1. Introduction to the Rail Baltica Business Network ........................................55 
3.2. Methodology for RBBN .............................................................................56 
3.3. Event Typology of RBBN ...........................................................................57 
3.4. Events executed in 2017-2018 ..................................................................58 
3.5. Events report for 2017/2018.....................................................................59 
3.5.1. Local Meetings ..................................................................................59 
3.5.2. Transnational Meetings .......................................................................89 

November 2018 

5 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

DISCLAIMER 

The information and views set out in this report are those of the author(s) and do not 
necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Commission. The Commission does not 
guarantee  the  accuracy  of  the  data  included  in  this  study.  Neither  the  Commission 
nor any person acting on the  Commission's behalf may be held responsible for the 
use which may be made of the information contained therein. 

November 2018 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

1. Introduction 

As a result of the Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 a Service Contract number 
N°  MOVE/B1/2017-397  has  been  concluded  between  the  European  Union, 
represented  by  the  Directorate-General  for  Mobility  and  Transport  (DG-MOVE)  of  the 
European  Commission,  and  Advokaadibüroo  TRINITI  OÜ,  Malla  Paajanen 
Consulting, Civitta Eesti AS and Meta Advisory Group OÜ, hereinafter together as 
the Contractor  or the Consortium on April 28, 2017, through TRINITI as the  Lead 
Partner of the Consortium.   

The  Contractor  has  been  commissioned  by  DG-MOVE  to  carry  out  the  Study  of  the 
business case of the Rail Baltica project and setting up the Rail Baltica business network 
in  Finland,  Estonia,  Latvia,  Lithuania  and  Poland  (the  “Project”)  for  the  European 
Commission.  

The Consortium members shared the following roles in the Project:  

Advokaadibüroo TRINITI OÜ, a  member  in  the  Management  Board  of  the  Project, 
also the Lead Partner responsible for the leadership and implementation of the  whole 
Project.  The  TRINITI  team  participated  in  Task  1  and  Task  2  in  Estonia,  which  were 
carried out in collaboration with Civitta Eesti AS and META Advisory. 

Malla Paajanen Consulting, a member in the Management Board of the Project and 
a strategic adviser, participated in the overall planning, supervision and management 
of the Project. Malla Paajanen was responsible for Task 1 and Task 2 in Finland, which 
were carried out in collaboration with Civitta Eesti AS, META and TRINITI. 

Civitta Eesti  AS, a member in the Management Board of the Project  responsible for 
the management of the Project. The Civitta team participated in Task 1 and Task 2 in 
Estonia, which were carried out in collaboration with TRINITI and META Advisory. Civitta 
had  the  main  responsibility  for  the  coordination  of  Task  1  in  all  five  countries,  and 
respective work was carried out in collaboration with the regional teams. 

Meta Advisory Group OÜ as strategic adviser and member in the Management Board 
of the Project, participated in the planning, supervision and management of the Project. 
The META team participated in Task 1 and Task 2 in Estonia, which were carried out in 
collaboration with Civitta Eesti AS and TRINITI. META had the main responsibility of the 
coordination of Task 2 in all five countries, and the work was carried out in collaboration 
with the regional teams. 

November 2018 

7 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

1.2. Members of the Consortium 

TRINITI is a Pan-Baltic commercial law firm which 
along  with  its  cross-border  practice  groups  and  a 
combined team of over 60 specialists serves clients 
as  a  one-stop  agency  in  the  capitals  of  Estonia, 
in  all  core  commercial 
Latvia  and  Lithuania 
activities.  Over 
and 
the 
infrastructure matters have been in the strong focus 
of  TRINITI  establishing  itself  as  the  leading  Baltic 
law firm in this field. 

transport 

years 

Malla Paajanen Consulting  is a private trader (est. 2013) built 
on  the  professional  experience  of  the  owner  in  the  planning, 
management  and  implementation  of  major  international  projects 
since 1999. The trade name is specialized in the project design and 
management as well as fund-raising of major international projects 
in  the  fields  of  transport  and  logistics,  tourism  and  investment 
promotion.  

CIVITTA  is  a  leading  independent  management  consultancy  in  the 
Baltics and the Western CIS with offices in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Russia, 
Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia and a sales office in the United Kingdom. Civitta aims to bring 
the right minds together to challenge the boundaries and make meaningful changes for 
its clients. 

Civitta is a partnership established by a team of professionals with diverse experience 
in international consulting companies, entrepreneurial initiatives, leading private sector 
companies, and government organizations.  The firm  covers a  wide range of services, 
including  management  consulting,  grants  and  project  management,  market  research 
and customer data analytics, entrepreneurship support and start-ups, public policy and 
development. 

META  Advisory  Group  (META)  is  the  leading  PR 
agency in the Baltic States that is recognized as strong 
in  both  government  relations  as  well  as  marketing 
communications. META has sister-offices in Riga and in 
Vilnius,  who  share  the  same  business  practices  and 
serve  clients  with  pan-Baltic  demands  jointly,  though  legally  acting  as  independent 
agencies. META is also part of FIPRA – a global network of strategic advisers specializing 
in government relations. 

November 2018 

8 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

1.3. Subcontracting 
The  Consortium  has  efficiently  employed  the  diversified  in-house  expertise  of  its 
partners, their managers and employees. In addition to this knowledge and professional 
experience  the  selected  subcontractors  have  added  to  the  core  competences  of  the 
Contractor to reach the required geographical coverage and highest possible quality of 
outcomes.   

The pool of subcontractors consisted of the following expert organizations: 

  UAB  “CIVITTA”  -  the  Consortium  utilizes  the  professional  capacities  of  UAB 
“Civitta” regarding the organisation of the business network events in Lithuania, 
as  well  as  for  the  gathering  and  analyses  of  input  and  information  for  the 
compilation of the Study; 

  Vilands  Associates  SIA  -  the  Consortium  relied  on  the  expert  capacities  of 
Vilands Associates SIA regarding the organisation of the business network events 
in Latvia. 

  Instytut  Innowacyjności  Polska  Sp.  Z.o.o.  -  the  Consortium  relied  on  the 
capacities  of  this  sub-contractor  regarding  the  organisation  of  the  business 
network events in Poland. 

November 2018 

9 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Task 1: Study on the  
Business Case of Rail Baltica 

Table of Contents of the Study 

1. Introduction .................................................................................................. 7 
1.2. Members of the Consortium ....................................................................... 8 
1.3. Subcontracting ......................................................................................... 9 
Table of Contents of the Study ...........................................................................10 
List of Figures ..................................................................................................11 
List of Tables ...................................................................................................11 
Abstract ..........................................................................................................12 
Executive summary ..........................................................................................13 
The importance of RB .....................................................................................13 
The aim of the study ......................................................................................13 
Development of the freight market ..................................................................13 
Rail Baltica challenge ......................................................................................14 
Requirements of “conventional” customers ........................................................14 
Requirements of “value-adding” customers .......................................................15 
Recommendations for next steps .....................................................................17 
Introduction .....................................................................................................18 
Socio-economic impact ......................................................................................19 
Quantitative socio-economic impact .................................................................20 
Qualitative socio-economic impact ...................................................................21 
Research Methodology ......................................................................................23 
Study design .................................................................................................23 
Quantitative analysis methodology ...................................................................24 
Profile of interview participants and interview structure ......................................24 
Rail Baltica Business Network ..........................................................................25 
EU experience and lessons learned .....................................................................26 
Objectives and project design ..........................................................................26 
Business case ................................................................................................27 
Governance arrangements ..............................................................................28 
Commercialization .........................................................................................28 
Trade specifics of the Region ..............................................................................30 
Economic growth ...........................................................................................30 
Trade dynamics .............................................................................................31 
Trade within countries of the Region ..............................................................31 
Trade with EU countries ...............................................................................32 
Trade with third countries ............................................................................32 
Trade commodities.........................................................................................32 
Freight ecosystem ............................................................................................34 
Freight volume forecast ..................................................................................34 
Rail Baltica freight flow projections ................................................................35 
Rail Baltica challenge ...................................................................................36 
Key operational parameters for successful rail operations ...................................37 

November 2018 

10 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Cost of delivery ..........................................................................................38 
Service quality ............................................................................................39 
Conventional vs. value-adding freight development ............................................41 
Conventional freight customers .....................................................................43 
Suggestions to revitalize HDLV freight railways ...............................................45 
Value-adding freight customers ....................................................................46 
Suggestions for developing the LDHV rail freight segment ................................47 
Impact of containerization and intermodal shipments .........................................48 
Perception of Rail Baltica ................................................................................49 
Conclusion .......................................................................................................51 
3. Task 2: Setting up a Rail Baltica Business Network ...........................................55 
3.1. Introduction to the Rail Baltica Business Network ........................................55 
3.2. Methodology for RBBN .............................................................................56 
3.3. Event Typology of RBBN ...........................................................................57 
3.4. Events executed in 2017-2018 ..................................................................58 
3.5. Events report for 2017/2018.....................................................................59 
3.5.1. Local Meetings ..................................................................................59 
3.5.2. Transnational Meetings .......................................................................89 

List of Figures 

Figure 1 – Study’s design ..................................................................................23 
Figure 2 – Rail Baltica Business Network geographical reach ..................................25 
Figure 3 – Rail infrastructure projects’ structure ...................................................26 
Figure 4 – Eurotunnel’s cargo flow (million tonnes) ...............................................29 
Figure 5 – Exports and imports by regions of origin and destination ........................31 
Figure 6 – Top export commodity groups and trade volume changes .......................33 
Figure 7 – Top import commodity groups and trade volume changes ......................33 
Figure 8 – Freight volume growth in the Baltic States, million tons, 2018-2055 ........34 
Figure 9 – Rail share (2015, %) and average growth (2015-2025, CAGR, %) ...........42 
Figure 10 – Growth development of LDHV versus HDLV, 2008-2025 .......................42 
Figure 11 – Regional number of containers shipped ..............................................48 
Figure 12 – Suggested timeline for Rail Baltica commercialization activities .............52 

List of Tables 
Table 1 – Overview of quantifiable socio-economic benefits and costs .....................20 
Table 2 – Annual GDP growth: historical and forecast, 2010-2030 ..........................31 
Table 3 – Rail Baltica freight flow estimates, million tons, 2026-2055 ......................35 
Table 4 – Potential threats to Rail Baltica development ..........................................36 
Table 5 – Perception of transport modes: road vs. rail ...........................................37 
Table 6 – HDLV companies surveyed – industry profile ..........................................44 
Table 7 – LDHV companies surveyed – industry profile ..........................................46 
Table 8 – Geographical profile ............................................................................49 

November 2018 

11 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Abstract 

Rail  Baltica  is  the  most  significant  TEN-T  North  Sea  Baltic  corridor  project  aiming  to 
establish a European gauge railway and strengthen economic links between the eastern 
and northernmost EU member states and the rest of the EU.  

While  political  aspirations  are  high,  the  business  community  is  concerned  that  the 
opinions and the needs of future customers and local businesses might be overlooked. 
The goal of the study is to address such concerns, shed light on the region’s logistical 
needs,  key  parameters  determining  selection  of  transport  mode,  public  perception  of 
Rail Baltica and prerequisites for its successful future rail operations.  

Based on interviews and dialogue with major stakeholders in Finland, the Baltic States 
and  Poland,  we  find  that  established  mature  businesses  require  railway  productivity 
improvements, and dynamic small-to-medium enterprises expect high service quality, 
including reliable on-time deliveries, integrated logistical services and cost levels which 
would  rival  competing  modes  of  transport.  We  highlight  that,  most  of  all,  companies 
expect  Rail  Baltica  to  de-institutionalize  the  railway  industry,  optimize  logistic  flow 
control and establish an effective link with Central Europe.  

Subsequently, companies would like to witness the modernization and the integration 
of the legacy national rail networks into a fully integrated European cross-border railway 
system  and  believe  that  this  will  further  improve  railway  management  practices, 
increase resource utilization and set a new service standard. 

November 2018 

12 

 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Executive summary 

The importance of RB 
Rail Baltica is the most significant among the North Sea - Baltic core network corridor’s 
projects aiming to set up a European standard gauge railway connecting Estonia, Latvia 
and  Lithuania  to  Poland  and  the  rest  of  the  European  1435  mm  railway  system.  Rail 
Baltica’s goal is to establish the missing link of 1435 mm gauge track in the Baltic States, 
upgrading  existing  infrastructure  in  Poland,  creating  additional  inter-modality  options 
and removing interoperability barriers for effective cross-border passenger and freight 
movement.  Rail  Baltica  envisages  a  continuous  double-track,  electrified  conventional 
high-speed rail link from Tallinn to Warsaw, passing through major economic centers in 
the Baltic States and fueling the economic development in the North-Eastern Europe.   

Despite the public nature (socio-economic value) of the project, the experience of the 
largest  European  railway  infrastructure  projects  indicates  that  success  of  the  rail 
industry increasingly relies on commercial income. Aiming to establish a leading role of 
railways in the future transport industry,  rail generally and Rail Baltica  specifically,  is 
expected to effectively compete with already proven logistic solutions. 

The aim of the study  
As  such,  the  study  aims  to  contribute  to  the  development  of  the  business  case  of 
successful freight transport operations on the future railway by identifying underlying 
end-customers’ supply-chain requirements and establishing commercial and operational 
prerequisites for successful rail freight services. 

The study applies qualitative research coupled with quantitative analysis of existing and 
future freight flows in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland (the Region). The 
study  reflects  real-life  logistic  practices,  views  and  outlook  of  leading  manufacturing 
companies, associations, industry experts and representatives of rail incumbents in the 
Region. 

Development of the freight market   
We forecast freight volumes to grow by over 50% in the next 30 years mostly driven by 
the Region’s further convergence and integration into the EU economy, development of 
the  manufacturing  sector  and  growing  internal  consumption.  We  find  that  changes 
within  top-traded  commodities  reflect  structural  economic  changes  driven  by  the 
increasing role of value-adding industries. The underlying freight shift from conventional 
to value-adding is expected to benefit mostly road transport. Nonetheless, the absolute 
freight volumes attributable to rail will remain rather stable and are expected to grow 
following the commissioning of Rail Baltica. 

Reflecting  end-customers’  logistic  practices,  the  study  confirms  a  growing  share  of 
value-added  freight  types  that  are  expected  to  overtake  conventional  freight  and 
dominate the overall transport market in the Region. The shift is expected to accelerate 
during  the  next  5  to  10  years  and  will  need  to  be  integrated  by  the  rail  industry  in 
general as well as Rail Baltica.  

In the long term however, increased road traffic and road transport costs coupled with 
tightening  environmental  legislation  is  expected  to  open  new  opportunities  for  Rail 
Baltica. Already today some companies indicate they are experiencing truck shortages 
and heavy road congestion.  

November 2018 

13 

 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Rail Baltica challenge 
We find that today heavy industries in the Region have been largely replaced by smaller 
commercial entities with more sophisticated logistical needs. As a result, freight flows 
have  become  fragmented  and  low  economies  of  density  have  diminished  rail’s 
operational and commercial competitiveness. A typical company in the Region focuses 
mostly on distribution rather than holistic supply chain management. This often requires 
highly responsive, flexible and readily available transport solutions. The overall supply 
chain has become highly demand-sensitive and rail, characterized by its less dynamic 
nature, is quite often challenged to meet customers’ logistical needs.  
In a simplified matrix, we find that the choice of mode of transport is determined by a 
function of cost and service quality. Rather intuitively, conventional industries gravitate 
towards cost with value adding to service quality a dominant factor. The challenge Rail 
Baltica  faces  is  self-evident:  for  rail  to  be  successful  in  the  Region,  market  expects 
railways to increase  their  commercial efficiency, meet  operational and service quality 
needs of an ever-demanding market. 

Requirements of “conventional” customers 
Over the last two decades, budgetary  constraints and insufficient capital investments 
have  considerably  reduced  rail’s  productivity  –  an  imperative  parameter  impacting 
logistic  choices  of  conventional  railway  customers.  To  become  competitive,  large 
companies  expect  Rail  Baltica  to  provide  productivity  gains  (ref.  “Conventional 
industries’ response profile”) through fully integrated and commercially efficient logistic 
solutions.  This  involves  modernization  of  the  rolling  stock  fleet,  including  specialized 
wagons (e.g. hopper cars) which could increase the efficiency of loading/ unloading of 
unpackaged goods; covered facilities for reloading and interim storage; effective local 
means of traction; solutions for integrating existing broad-gauge infrastructure with EU-
standard  gauge;  operational  flexibility  to  adequately  react  to  capacity  changes; 
integrated first/last mile services. 

Conventional industries’ response profile 

Themes of 
interviews / 
Industries 

Chemicals, 
fertilizers 

Mining/ 
Construction  

Grains/ 
Agriculture 

Metal products 

Operational 
specifics 

Companies are 
strategically 
orientated towards 
West European 
markets. High 
competitive 
pressure, forces 
businesses to 
optimize their 
supply chain. 
Today, companies 
use rail mostly for 
raw material 
imports from 
Russia.  

Commercial 
companies rely on 
major national 
infrastructure 
projects. Reduced 
scale of 
infrastructure 
projects coupled 
with relatively high 
cost makes rail less 
attractive. Despite 
existing rail 
infrastructure, 
companies 
increasingly rely on 
road transport. 

Companies rely on 
shipping as the 
most economic 
means of transport. 
Large volume 
shipments (e.g. 30 
thousand MT) are 
standard. 
Specialized lower 
volume 
consignments to 
neighbor markets 
are transported via 
road. Rail is used 
only in domestic 
markets.   

Companies often 
lack direct link to 
rail. Most imports 
from Central Europe 
transported using 
road transport. 
Exports – shipping 
and road mostly to 
Scandinavian 
countries. Road is 
considered 
inefficient for metal 
products, but today 
companies lack 
alternatives. 

November 2018 

14 

 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Themes of 
interviews / 
Industries 

Chemicals, 
fertilizers 

Mining/ 
Construction  

Grains/ 
Agriculture 

Metal products 

Major 
constraints 

Rail Baltica 
Expectations 

Lack of 
interoperability as 
companies’ 
infrastructure rely 
on broad gauge. 
Rail’s productivity is 
diminished by 
inefficient interim 
operations (i.e. 
loading/ unloading). 
Inefficient and 
outdated rolling 
stock fleet, lack of 
specialized rolling 
stock, e.g. weighing 
bunkers. 

Cost 
competitiveness. 
Transport costs 
account for a major 
share of operating 
costs. Current rail 
costs are too high 
for the industry. 

Low rail operational 
flexibility and 
relatively low lead 
time reliability.  

Low productivity, 
comparatively high 
cost, shortage of 
rolling stock, lack of 
specialized rolling 
stock, e.g. hopper 
cars. Company 
expects rail to rival 
shipping transport 
for low volume 
shipments (1.000 – 
3.000 MT).  

Lack of 
infrastructure and 
direct access to rail. 
Efficient connection 
with ports. Cost 
competitiveness, 
reliability. 
Capabilities for 
transporting 
oversized objects 
(e.g. vessel or 
drilling platform 
components). 
Limited storage 
capacity. 

Companies are 
interested in 
optimizing supply 
chain to Central 
Europe. Productivity 
gain is an essential 
prerequisite for 
considering rail as a 
commercially viable 
transportation 
option. 

Companies believe 
Rail Baltica will 
have limited to no 
impact on their 
operations. 
However, 
companies would 
welcome service 
quality 
improvements on 
local/regional rail 
network. 

Productivity gains. 
Companies 
recognize rail’s 
potential if efficient 
and cost-
competitive link 
with Central Europe 
is established. 
Businesses 
anticipate Rail 
Baltica to rival 
maritime transport.  

Rail Baltica to offer 
alternative 
transportation to 
road transport. 
Road’s current 
offering is 
suboptimal for 
metal products as it 
cannot effectively 
handle heavy metal 
sheets and tubing.  

 Source: Company interviews, expert interviews, Rail Baltica Business Network events 

We find that conventional customers consider rail mostly a viable alternative accessing 
some landlocked geographical areas in Central and South Europe. Companies recognize 
that  the  revival  of  rail  will  require  substantial  public  and  private  capital  investments 
where active involvement of all stakeholders is essential. Financial capabilities as well 
as corporate approval processes vary among the businesses; thus, timely evaluation of 
real-life  business  cases  (including  partnering  and  co-investment  opportunities)  is 
highlighted as an important factor that might accelerate the shift towards the railway 
industry. 

Requirements of “value-adding” customers 
As emphasized earlier, value-added businesses are very much dependent on demand 
fluctuation  and  require  highly  responsive,  flexible  and  readily  available  transport 
solutions.  Today  however,  rail’s  operational  practices  focus  primarily  on  conventional 
freight  types  and  are  unable  to  effectively  compete  with  more  dynamic  modes  of 
transport  (ref.  “Value  adding  industries’  response  profile”).  As  a  result,  value-added 
industries stress the importance of optimizing logistical flows, reducing lead-times and 
increasing the reliability of on-time deliveries as a major prerequisite for switching to 
rail. 

November 2018 

15 

 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Value-adding industries’ response profile 

Themes of 
interviews / 
Industries 

Forestry/ Pulp/ 
furniture 

Food/ FMCG 

Textiles 

Electrical 
equipment 

Operational 
specifics 

Major 
constraints 

Rail Baltica 
Expectations 

Majority of the 
industry in the 
Region depends on 
a major global 
furniture chain. 
Companies have no 
impact on transport 
modes of exports. 
Raw materials are 
typically sourced 
domestically via 
road. Independent 
furniture 
manufacturers 
export directly to 
customers by truck 
with rather short 
lead-times. 

Unreliable transport 
services (lead 
times). Lack of 
infrastructure 
resulting in double 
loading which 
diminishes rail’s 
cost advantages. 
Lack of integrated 
first/last mile 
services. Fragile 
goods require 
specialized loading 
solutions to 
minimize physical 
damage. Complex 
pricing principles. 

First and foremost, 
rail requires a 
cultural change, 
incl. in business 
practices. Rail 
Baltica has potential 
if it will facilitate 
modernization of 
railways in the 
Region, moving 
towards fully 
integrated 
customer-centric 
services. 

Food is a highly 
dynamic industry 
dependent on shelf 
life of products as 
well as strict 
customer 
requirements. 
Transport 
requirements are 
very time-sensitive. 
Companies require 
isothermal 
conditions during 
transport. Products 
are fragile and 
require gentle 
handling during 
loading/ unloading.  

Lack of general 
experience and 
knowledge, 
undefined value 
proposition, 
perceived high risks 
due to strict 
customer 
requirements. 
Require specialized 
(isothermal) rolling 
stock, the lack of 
which continues to 
be a problem on 
1435 mm railways. 

Service quality 
improvements, incl. 
reliability, 
operational 
efficiency, 
specialized rolling 
stock, regular and 
specialized 
schedule/ shuttle 
train services within 
Baltic states and 
beyond, integrated 
services to 
eliminate first/ last 
mile surcharges, 
transparent pricing. 

Companies typically 
source raw 
materials from 
China. Shipping 
proves to be the 
most reliable and 
cost-effective 
means of transport 
so far. However, 
companies are 
interested in 
shortening lead-
times.   

Companies’ 
products are 
expensive and 
expected to be of 
highest quality. 
Businesses value 
short lead-times, 
safety of fragile 
goods. Companies 
would consider rail 
for over-sized 
consignments or if 
rail could effectively 
compete with road 
transport.    

Lack of efficient 
infrastructure.  
Low service 
standards, incl. 
fragile freight 
handling and lead-
times. Transport of 
electric components 
might be highly 
time-sensitive and 
on-time deliveries 
are key. Optimized 
loading/ unloading 
to reduce risk of 
physical damage. 

Increase 
competitiveness of 
rail compared to 
road transport. 
Open new 
commercially viable 
trade channels with 
Central Europe for 
both imports and 
exports. 

Predominantly cost, 
followed by lack of 
integrated services 
and efficient 
international 
connections, i.e. 
China. 

Companies are 
interested in logistic 
solutions that could 
reduce the lead-
times of imports 
from China. An 
efficient and cost-
effective connection 
with Central and 
Western Europe. 
Effective connection 
with Baltic seaports 
and the existing 
1520 mm rail 
network. 

 Source: Company interviews, expert interviews, Rail Baltica Business Network events 

In  parallel,  the  study  recognizes  that  rail  is  not  intended  to  address  all  logistic 
challenges.  Value-adding  businesses  represent  diverse  industries  characterized  by 
different  operational  parameters  such  as  average  turnover  of  products  and  handling 
requirements  (e.g.  retail  food  products  vs.  heavy  machinery).  Consequently,  the 

November 2018 

16 

 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

business  case  of  Rail  Baltica  could  be  strengthened  by  establishing  a  target  end-
customer sub-segment. 

Recommendations for next steps 
Interviews  with  potential  end-customers  reveal  that  the  market  still  associates  Rail 
Baltica  with  existing  national  rail  networks  rather  than  seeing  it  as  a  modern  fully 
integrated  cross-national  transport  system.  Lack  of  actual  change  in  national  railway 
industries so far and the still relatively high operational uncertainty of future Rail Baltica 
operations reduces the perceived value of the project. We find that establishment of a 
value proposition with a major focus on operational and commercial advantages of Rail 
Baltica  freight  services  would  facilitate  a  proactive  dialogue  with  potential  end-
customers.  In  the  light  of  this,  we  propose  an  indicative  timeline  for  Rail  Baltica 
commercialization activities that could benefit project development efforts and in-time 
acknowledgement by the commercial sector. 

Suggested timeline for Rail Baltica commercialization activities 

Businesses share their concern that while a lot of attention is spent on conceptual Rail 
Baltica issues (e.g. the management of infrastructure, project scope, etc.), technological 
and  operational  Rail  Baltica  requirements  that  shape  actual  logistic  choices  might 
initially  be  overlooked.  In  addition  to  RB  Rail  and  the  railway  sector  representatives, 
companies would like a wider range of service providers (transport companies, logistic 
operators, forwarders, terminal operators) to be actively engaged in the development 
of Rail Baltica’s business case.   

Finally, we find that low economies of densities that have historically diminished rail’s 
value  proposition  in  the  Region  on  the  one  hand,  and  an  increasing  freight  flow 
sensitivity to the demand on the other, are the major counter-acting forces that slow 
down  the  development  of  rail  in  the  Region.  Efforts  that  would  enable  incremental 
optimization  of  logistical  flows  and  efficient  massification  of  shipments  would  receive 
the highest attention from potential end-customers and increase market interest. 

November 2018 

17 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Introduction 

Trade and free movement of goods is the first of the four fundamental freedoms of the 
EU  internal  market.  Efficient  transport  services  coupled  with  an  efficient  internal 
infrastructure is at  the  core of free movement  ensuring economic,  cultural and social 
development in the EU. 

According to Eurostat1, the transport industry contributes almost 5% in gross value to 
the  economy  added  for  the  EU  28  and  sustains  over  11  million  jobs.  To  stimulate 
economic growth and ensure coherent development of the vast EU transport network2, 
in  2011  the  European  Commission  (EC)  outlined  the  region’s  transport  strategy  – 
Roadmap  to  a  Single  European  Transport  Area3.  The  EC  adopted  a  roadmap  of  40 
initiatives  aimed  at  building  a  competitive  transport  system  and  reducing  Europe’s 
dependency on imported oil and cutting carbon emissions by 60% by 2050. 

In 2013, the EU adopted union guidelines for the development  of the Trans-European 
Transport  Network4  (TEN-T),  which  outlined  plans  for  the  development  of  nine 
strategically important transport corridors of the core networks: 

  Atlantic – connecting the ports of the Iberian Peninsula to the port of Le Havre 
in  Northern  France  and  with  the  cities  of  Strasbourg  and  Mannheim  on  the 
French/ German border. 

  Baltic Adriatic – north-south railway link connecting port of Gdansk on the Baltic 

Sea with Bologna and the Adriatic.    

  North Sea-Baltic – connecting the ports of the eastern shores of the Baltic Sea 

with ports of the North Sea.  

  North Sea-Mediterranean – connecting the Scottish capital Edinburgh in the north 

to the southern French ports of Fos-sur-Mer and Marseille. 

  Orient-East  Med  –  connecting  large  parts  of  Central  Europe  with  ports  of  the 

North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Seas. 

  Rhine-Alpine – connecting key North Sea ports of Belgium and the Netherlands 

with the Mediterranean port of Genoa. 

  Rhine-Danube – main east-west link across Continental Europe, tracing its route 
along the Danube River and connecting Strasbourg and Southern Germany with 
Central European cities. 

  Scandinavian-Mediterranean – north-south axis connecting Finland and Sweden 

in the North with the island of Malta in the South. 

TEN-T priorities focus on filling in missing transport links, in particular on cross-border 
sections,  and  in  reducing  the  difference  in  quality  while  eliminating  interoperability 
barriers between Member States. The core TEN-T network of two major north–south, 
three east–west and four diagonal corridors is set to be completed by 2030. 

1 EU transport policy. Available: https://europa.eu/european-union/topics/transport_en 
2 The EU 28 transport system comprises of 5 million km of paved roads, 215 thousand km of railways and 
41 thousand km of navigable inland waterways 
3 Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area. Available: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-
content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52011DC0144&from=EN 
4 Union guidelines for the development of the trans-European transport network. Available: https://eur-
lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32013R1315 

November 2018 

18 

 
 
 
 
                                           
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

The North Sea-Baltic TEN-T Corridor consists of 5.947 km of railways, 4.029 km of roads 
and 2.186 km of inland waterways.5 The corridor connects Finland and the ports of the 
eastern  shore  of  the  Baltic  Sea  with  ports  of  the  North  Sea  and  spans  across  6  EU 
Member States linking Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, 
Estonia and Finland. Integration of the North-Eastern member states into the European 
transport  network  corresponds  to  the  TEN-T  objectives  and  represents  a  priority  for 
strengthening economic links in the region. The Corridor also conforms to requirements 
for  modern  transport  policies,  in  particular  “shift  to  rail”  for  transported  goods.  Rail 
Freight Corridor No 8 – the North Sea-Baltic, belongs to the corridors with the greatest 
potential for growth in tonnage of freight for international journeys6. 

The geographical location of the Corridor provides a strategic connection with Eastern 
Europe, Central Asia and gives it a pivotal role beyond. The Corridor’s most significant 
project is Rail Baltica – a European standard gauge railway connecting Estonia, Latvia 
and Lithuania to Poland. The Rail Baltica envisages a continuous rail link from Tallinn to 
Warsaw, passing through major economic centers in the Baltic States as well as North 
Eastern Poland. Rail Baltica aims to establish the missing link of 1435 mm gauge track 
in  the  Baltic  States,  upgrading  existing  infrastructure  and  removing  interoperability 
barriers for effective cross-border passenger and freight movement. Its importance is 
further underlined by the adoption of a Commission Implementing Decision in October 
2018.7  Additionally,  Rail  Baltica  carries  the  symbolic  value  of  creating  a  physical  link 
between Eastern and Central European member states.  

Reflecting EU transport strategic goals, namely increasing the efficiency of the freight 
transport  system  and  reducing  carbon  emissions  in  transport,  Rail  Baltica  plays  an 
imperative  role  for  the  Baltic  Region  by  promoting  sustainable,  environmentally 
responsible and safe transportation services.  In 2015, it was estimated that daily the 
Lithuanian-Polish border is crossed by around 5.000 trucks daily  8 and the number of 
fatalities in road traffic accidents were among the highest9 in the EU. Shifting a sizeable 
freight volume from road to rail is expected to sustain the Region’s economic growth, 
reduce  road traffic congestion and facilitate greater  mobility of people while reducing 
the Region’s and Europe’s carbon footprint by up to 60%. 

To increase the potential of Rail Baltica passenger and freight transport operations, the 
study  focuses  on  evaluating  Europe’s  experience  in  developing  large  scale  rail 
infrastructure projects, highlighting best practices, testing pre-existent freight transport 
growth assumptions and identifying underlying market needs in the Region. The study 
aims at identifying the detailed prerequisites for successful commercial rail services and 
further development of the Rail Baltica business case. 

Socio-economic impact 
Rail Baltica takes on a pivotal role in the integration of north-eastern EU member states 
into the European transport network, strengthening economic links within the Region as 
well as with other member states in Central and Western Europe. Benefits arise not only 
from  local  cooperation  but  also  from  serving  increasing  demands  created  by  more 

of 

the 

Plan 

Work 

North-Sea 

5 
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/infrastructure/north-sea-baltic_en 
6 Rail Freight Corridor 8 North Sea Baltic Corridor Information Document. Available: 
http://rfc8.eu/files/public/uploads/Books_for_TT_2017/CID_Book_1_Generalities_TT_2017.pdf 
7 Implementing Decision on the Rail Baltica Cross-border project on the North Sea-Baltic Corridor. Available: 
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/infrastructure/news/2018-10-29-rail-baltica-statement_en 
8 Estimated number of border-crossings between Poland and Lithuania (in Lithuanian). Available: 
https://lakd.lrv.lt/uploads/lakd/documents/files/Eismo_intensyvumas/VMPEI2015_magistraliniai.pdf 
9 Number of persons killed in road traffic accidents per million inhabitants: 
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Rail_accident_fatalities_in_the_EU 

Available: 

Corridor. 

Baltic 

November 2018 

19 

 
 
 
                                           
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

globalized marketplaces and challenges to the logistic sector  in providing  flexible and 
reliable services. Rail Baltica addresses the challenge of convenient transport connection 
between Northern Europe and Central and Western Europe by providing high-speed rail 
transport. Therefore, its importance for the development of  North-Sea  Baltic Corridor 
has been acknowledged. As indicated in The Study of the North Sea-Baltic Core Network 
Corridor  “the  Corridor  should  seek  to  ensure  a  seamless  national  and  international 
transport  by  all  transport  modes,  to  minimize  environmental  impact  increase 
competitiveness,  encourage  investment,  use  new  technologies  and  make  use  of 
innovation  wherever  possible”10.  The  Rail  Baltica  Global  Project  Cost-Benefit  Analysis 
(further – EY CBA) provides conclusions on the ability of the Rail Baltica project to realize 
the objectives of the North Sea-Baltic Corridor. Nevertheless, it will require consistent 
effort from stakeholders to promote the project and to meet market  needs to secure 
the  necessary  modal  shift  considered  a  prerequisite  for  the  socio-economic  benefits 
identified. 

Quantitative socio-economic impact 
EY  CBA  provides  an  in-depth  socio-economic  analysis  that  justifies  benefits  of  the 
project exceeding costs from a societal standpoint.  An overview of quantifiable socio-
economic benefits is displayed in Table 1. 

Table 1 – Overview of quantifiable socio-economic benefits and costs 

Socio-economic benefits and costs 

Amount, million EUR 

Air pollution reduction 

Climate change mitigation 

Noise reduction 

Travel time savings 

Travel safety increase 

Other socio-economic benefits/expenses 

Total 

Source: EY CBA  

3 268 

3 024 

843 

5 276 

892 

2 925 

16 226 

A  crucial  part  of  socio-economic  benefits  is  related  to  better  protection  of  the 
environment and climate change mitigation. This follows EU’s active legislative policies 
and  investments  in  environmentally  friendly  transport  infrastructure  after  the 
introduction of the white paper Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area in 2011 
by European Commission11. Main benefits to the environment indicated in EY CBA are: 

  Reduction  of  air  pollution  due  to  diminished  emissions.  Calculations  of 
benefit are based on generally agreed evidence that comparatively electric trains 
cause  significantly  fewer  emission  costs  than  other  means  of  transport. 
Moreover, the calculation assumes a modal shift from other means of transport 
to  rail.  EY  CBA  estimates  that  a  shift  of  every  thousand  passengers  from  cars 
and buses to train will decrease emission costs by 2 949 EUR. 

North 

10 
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/north_sea-baltic_study_0.pdf 
11  Roadmap 
content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52011DC0144&from=EN 

Sea–Baltic 

Network 

Corridor 

Core 

to  a  Single  European  Transport  Area.  Available:  http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-

Study. 

Available: 

November 2018 

20 

 
 
 
                                           
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

  Reduction of monetary effects from climate change due to economies of 
scale. As with emission costs, it is agreed that rail creates fewer climate change 
costs than other means of transport and that shift to rail would diminish these 
costs. EY CBA estimates that for every thousand passengers shifting from cars 
and buses to train, climate change costs will decrease by EUR 5 820. 

  Reduction  of  noise  pollution  costs  due  to  the  reduction  of  vehicle-km 
(vkm) travelled. Rail transport creates higher noise pollution costs in relative 
numbers,  however  the  larger  capacity  of  train  leads  to  less  vkm  travelled, 
therefore reducing noise pollution in absolute numbers. EY CBA estimates that 
for every thousand passengers’ shift from cars and buses to trains will decrease 
noise pollution costs by EUR 880. 

In addition to benefits to the protection of the environment are gains to users of new 
rail infrastructure. Most importantly, travel time savings and improved travelling safety: 

  Travel  time  savings  and  an  increase  of  productive  time.  New  rail 
infrastructure will provide decreased travelling time compared to other means of 
transportation currently available, leading to cost savings. Rail infrastructure also 
provides  more  opportunities  to  spend  travel  time  productively,  increasing 
personal  gains  and  potentially  also  income.  Benefits  from  time  savings  are 
calculated based on differences between the length of travel provided by different 
means of transport and multiplying it by the value of time. 

  Improved  travelling  safety  by  using  safer  means  of  transport.  Rail  is 
considered safer as the fatality rate while travelling by train is considerably lower 
considered to other means of transport. The socio-economic benefit is calculated 
by  considering  potential  avoided  casualties  caused  by  using  other  modes  of 
transport and multiplying it with the estimated economic value of an individual. 

EY CBA indicates other socio-economic benefits like: 

  Additional  personal  transport  savings,  which  includes  savings  related  to 

diminished expenses of maintenance of personal vehicles; 

  Additional  freight  transportation  savings,  which  assumes  that  rail  has  a  lower 

rate per tkm compared to road transport (for longer distance O/D pairs). 

Qualitative socio-economic impact 
The discussion of the qualitative socio-economic impact of Rail Baltica project focuses 
on three pillars – increased mobility, connectivity and speed provided by a developed 
rail infrastructure. 

Increased mobility  leads  to  better  access  to  study/workplaces,  enhances  access  to 
resource/labor markets and provides more opportunities for commerce on the pan-Baltic 
level. These improvements support the expansion of the employment market and grant 
access to resources like raw materials, parts or products. In the long term, it is expected 
productivity will be boosted and lead to an increase in competitiveness of the Region, 
creating  a  fertile  environment  for  economic  growth  and  a  further  increase  in  living 
conditions of the countries in the Region. 

Increased connectivity leads to broader tourism opportunities and the ability to serve 
clients from all Baltic states and accumulate resources from across the Region to save 
costs.  Greater  connectivity  helps  to  move  along  integration  processes  of  the  Baltic 
countries into the unified market. A growth in tourism related sectors would be seen in 
addition to benefits brought to geographically developed areas around the nodes of new 
infrastructure. Positive aspects of overall economic growth would follow.  

November 2018 

21 

 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Increased speed would spur competitiveness of businesses operating in the  Region. 
Competitiveness would further be increased due to the enhancement of economies of 
scale by rail infrastructure, higher reliability for transport services and more convenient 
connection with regions that have previously been separate from the rest of transport 
infrastructure.  

As  indicated  by  EY  CBA  then  “the  exporters  of  the  Baltic  states  would  be  able  to 
penetrate the markets around the North Sea-Baltic Corridor and deeper in the mainland 
Europe, for instance, Visegrad region, Southern Germany and Northern Italy”12. 

Construction  and  implementation  of  Rail  Baltica  provides  immediate  benefits  through 
investments in the Region that would stimulate the local economy. These benefits would 
include  GDP  direct/  indirect/  induced  effect  from  investments  during  the  construction 
phase,  new  jobs  created  during  the  construction  phase  and  income  from  additional 
taxes. 

The Cost-Benefit Analysis confirms that the project is economically beneficial to society. 
However,  the  authors  of  the  CBA  admit  that  “the  economic  viability  is  dependent  on 
ensuring project output parameters that determine the key benefits – such as, offered 
speed  of  transportation,  environmental  impact,  usage  of  the  local  labor  force  and 
materials,  etc.”13.  Moreover,  the  achievement  of  current  expectations  and  even 
exceeding  them  relies  on  successful  Rail  Baltica  integration into  the North  Sea–Baltic 
Corridor14. 

The  greatest  risks  that  might  reduce  the  socio-economic  impact  of  the  project  are 
associated with freight transport. This stems from greater rigidity of the freight industry, 
its  supply  chain  and  higher  costs  of  trials  with  new  infrastructure.  It  emphasizes  the 
necessity of attracting companies to the implementation and early operation phase of 
Rail Baltica to facilitate the modal shift that is crucial for the viability. Our study indicates 
that  a  clear  operational  concept  and  value  proposition  for  Rail  Baltica  will  result  in  a 
productive dialogue with potential users of the new infrastructure.  Overall companies 
agree that to enable the socio-economic benefits laid out in the EY CBA, Rail Baltica is 
expected  to  provide  high  levels  of  efficiency,  commercial  competitiveness  as  well  as 
convenience  and  maintain  high  service  standards  that  would  be  competitive  with 
existing systems of road and maritime transport. 

12  Rail  Baltica  Global  Project  Cost-Benefit  Analysis.  Available:  http://www.railbaltica.org/wp-
content/uploads/2017/04/RB_CBA_FINAL_REPORT_0405.pdf 
13  Rail  Baltica  Global  Project  Cost-Benefit  Analysis.  Available:  http://www.railbaltica.org/wp-
content/uploads/2017/04/RB_CBA_FINAL_REPORT_0405.pdf 
14 
Network 
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/north_sea-baltic_study_0.pdf 

Sea–Baltic 

Corridor 

Study. 

North 

Core 

Available: 

November 2018 

22 

 
 
 
 
                                           
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Research Methodology 

Study design 
The study applies qualitative research coupled with quantitative analysis of freight flows 
in  Finland,  Estonia,  Latvia,  Lithuania  and  Poland  (hereafter  the  Region).  The  study 
design (Figure 1 – Study design) is comprised of three phases: 

  Desk  research  for  assessing  Rail  Baltica’s  commercial  potential  based  on 
quantitative top-down analysis complemented by general qualitative insights and 
macroeconomic  assumptions.  The  output  of  the  first  phase  was  used  to  build 
initial hypothesis for a successful Rail Baltica project management and railway 
development in the Region; 

  Field  research  for  gathering  company  specific  logistic  requirements,  existing 
and  future  commercial  needs,  key  parameters  determining  selection  of  the 
transport  mode,  perception  of  Rail  Baltica  and  preconditions  for  shifting  or 
increasing freight flows  to rail. During the second phase we gathered  industry 
experts’ recommendations (i.e. transport sector consultants, representatives of 
national  railway  projects,  road  transport  operators,  transport,  trade  and  other 
associations, and technology companies working with rail industry). 

  Presentation and evaluation of preliminary findings with participants of Rail 
Baltica  Business  Network  sessions.  This  allowed  us  to  validate  assumptions, 
stress-test conclusions and gather additional insights from a broad demographic 
of respondents.     

Figure 1 – Study design 

November 2018 

23 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Quantitative analysis methodology 
The  freight  flow  forecast  was  based  on  a  generally  accepted  approach  that  relies  on 
correlation  between  GDP  and  trade  developments,  taking  into  account  modal  shift 
assumptions and reflecting on the most recent developments of the rail segment in the 
Region  (with  manual  corrections  for  short-term  abnormalities).  The  transport  volume 
growth forecast was established using the following steps: 

  Historical freight volumes and economic data were obtained from Eurostat and 

national statistics offices, GDP forecasts – from Euromonitor database; 

  The  historical  GDP  and  freight  volume  relationship  factor  was  established  to 

major transport modes and extrapolated to cover the years up to 2055; and    

  Forecasted values were manually adjusted to eliminate statistical abnormalities 
based on historic events such as freight volume fluctuations caused by the 2008 
economic downturn or the 2014 EU sanctions imposed on Russia. 

The  development  of  long-term  conventional  vs.  value-adding  value  freight  types  was 
established by triangulating major freight type, industry and transport market growth 
forecasts and qualitative insights gained during interviews with local businesses. 

Profile of interview participants and interview structure 
In total, we approached over 100 companies operating in the Region, of which 34 agreed 
to  participate  in  the  study.  Companies’.  Company  representatives  (senior  managers) 
were interviewed over the phone  or in individual meetings. Additionally, we gathered 
input  from  11  associations,  8  industry  experts  and  representatives  of  the  railway 
initiative.  

The geographic spread of interviewed companies is as follows: Estonia (13), Latvia (7) 
and  Lithuania  (14).  The  Rail  Baltica  status  report  in  Poland  and  Finland  is  built  on 
information from the Rail Baltica Business Network together with contacts in local trade 
associations and external consultants. The largest number of respondents represented 
forestry and wood/ paper products (7), fertilizers, agricultural and specialty chemicals 
(7), industrial machinery and electrical equipment (5). The sample also included food 
manufacturers,  metal  and  mining  companies,  construction  material  producers  and 
retailers. 15 companies represent conventional (commodities, bulk chemicals, etc.) and 
19 are value-adding freight types. 

Research was conducted in the form of semi-structured interviews aiming to establish: 

 

 

companies’ operational specifics, market trends, strategic and tactical goals that 
might impact their freight flows; 

respondents’  logistic  needs,  including  current  freight  flows  and  major 
geographical  markets,  key  freight  types,  operational  parameters  determining 
selection of transport mode, transport volume brake-down by transport mode, 
general requirements and needs of the supply chain; 

  businesses’  experience  and  perception  of  rail  services,  expectations  and 
requirements from the Rail Baltica project, prerequisites to shift to rail, potential 
volume companies would consider shifting to rail; 

  professional insights and trends in the transport industry; and real-life impact of 

EU policies and regulations.    

Structurally, 20% of the interview time was spent learning commercial specifics of the 
companies;  30%  –  logistic  practices  and  needs;  40%  –  perception  of  Rail  Baltica, 
expectations and requirements to shift to rail; and 10% – real-life changes within the 
transport industry. 

November 2018 

24 

 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Rail Baltica Business Network 
During  the  course  of  this  study  altogether  22  business  network  events  (incl  2  large 
transnational gatherings) for informational, experience-sharing and discussion purposes 
were arranged in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland within the framework of 
the Rail Baltica Business Network. The events attracted and connected more than 1100 
attendees  ranging  from  European  Commission  representatives,  transport  ministers  of 
Rail Baltica countries, governmental and municipal stakeholders, representatives of the 
business community as well as RB Rail and the RB national implementing bodies. As a 
result  RBBN  has  been  actively  promoting  and  facilitating  the  RB-related  dialogue 
between the public and private sectors.   

RBBN  events  and  their  participants  have  been  a  major  contributor,  inspiration  and 
source of content for this study. Preliminary findings of the report were presented and 
reviewed during RBBN roundtable discussions in Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius and Kaunas.     

Figure 2 – Rail Baltica Business Network geographical reach 

November 2018 

25 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

EU experience and lessons learned 
In 2011, the EC outlined a regional transport strategy that looked to address increasing 
issues around freight transportation supported by legislative policies and investments 
promoting  rail  and  infrastructure  development.  The  spending  suggested  for  the 
Connecting Europe Facility for the period of 2014 to 2020 is estimated at around 50bn 
EUR, mostly for rail and inland waterway projects15. The infusion of capital is directed 
at fueling economic growth, increasing rail freight competitiveness, transport safety and 
reducing economic costs associated with road congestion and carbon emissions. 

Despite  the  investment  capital influx  and  introduction  of  legislatives  policies,  in  2016 
rail freight remained unsatisfactory according to  an audit conducted by  the  European 
Court  of  Auditors16.  The  auditors  identified  areas  of  improvement  for  future  rail 
infrastructure  projects.  Recommendations  capture  valuable  lessons  and  insights  that 
could possibly assist Rail Baltica in improving service in the future. 

A  general  issue  that  is  common  among  most  completed  European  projects  is  an 
insufficient  focus  on  the  integration  of  all  project  elements.  The  realization  of  large 
infrastructure projects  usually lasts for more than 10 years, over the course of  which 
we see a lack of systematic evaluation of interim project deliverables, followed by an 
ineffective feedback loop and lack of contingency planning with corrective actions.  

A detailed evaluation of major EU and UK rail projects reveals the most common areas 
for potential railway project management challenges (Figure 1). 

Figure 3 – Rail infrastructure project structure  

Source: Audit reports, expert evaluation 

Objectives and project design 
Very often large infrastructure projects have ambitious goals, such as regional economic 
development, national interest, jobs creation, etc. Rarely, however, are such aspirations 
turned  into  actionable  and  results-oriented  goals.  Lack  of  clear  and  measurable 
milestones  at  the  outset  challenge  the  vision  among  key  stakeholders  and  create 

15 Investments in EU Transport: Commission proposes €2.7 billion for 152 projects. Available: 
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1729_en.htm 
16 Rail freight transport in the EU: still not on the right track. Available: 
https://www.eca.europa.eu/Lists/ECADocuments/SR16_08/SR_RAIL_FREIGHT_EN.pdf  

November 2018 

26 

 
 
 
 
                                           
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

recurring obstacles throughout a project lifecycle (i.e. business case, governance and 
implementation).  

At its inception in 2009, UK’s High Speed 217 relied on nation-wide economic aspirations 
arising from anticipated high-speed rail link between South and North of England. Lack 
of  pragmatic  vision  and  economic  justification  generated  heated  political  debate  that 
delayed the project for several years. Supporters claimed that the line was essential to 
ensure national economic development, remove capacity constraints of the rail network 
and  accommodate  future  demand  for  transportation  services4.  Opposition,  however, 
argued  against  the  GBP  32  billion  and  referred  to  more  economic  alternatives. 
Eventually  the  project  was  approved  but  its  scope  was  repeatedly  questioned  and 
revised. High Speed 2 is expected to start service in 2027. Delays caused by the political 
debate have already cost GBP 17 billion. 

Business case 
A business case includes an estimate  of  market size, long-term activity planning and 
defining a value proposition for rail services that do not yet exist. A common challenge 
in  drafting  a  business  case  has  been  a  lack  of  definitive  and  consistent  research. 
Economic  analysis  is  typically  based  on  market  growth  assumptions  and  estimates 
extending several decades ahead. These assumptions are inherently subject to change 
during project’s lifecycle.  

The experience of completed rail freight projects indicate two major issues in setting up 
market  assumptions.  The  first  is  that  economic  signals  are  being  misinterpreted, 
resulting in overly optimistic expectations. The second is a failure to recognize changing 
economic  conditions  and  adjust  business  cases  accordingly.  As  a  result,  objective 
decision-making may be undermined. 

The case of Perpignan-Figueras18 illustrates the negative implications of having an over-
optimistic  business  case.  The  railway  line  was  set  to  become  the  first  interoperable 
transport link connecting France and Spain. (Previous trains had to be reloaded due to 
the difference in rail gauge standards). The project was budgeted at EUR 1,1 billion and 
planned to be commissioned in 2008. Nonetheless, the official opening date was delayed 
till 2011. During the first year of service, the actual number of freight trains comprised 
only 5% of the projected traffic. Poor performance was a result of an overly optimistic 
forecast,  decline  in  freight  due  to  global  economic  downturn  and  lack  of  commercial 
rationale. The infrastructure charges exceeded the costs of transporting the equivalent 
volume of freight by road by a factor of six. As a result, the operating company – a joint 
venture between Spanish and French railway undertakings – went bankrupt. The line is 
currently operated by SNCF Réseau and ADIF. 

Since  project  design  followed  by  implementation  may  take  years,  it  is  recommended 
that  business  cases  are  reviewed  and  contingency  plans  updated  throughout  the 
development phases. 

Following  public  scrutiny,  the  business  case  of  the  abovementioned  High  Speed  2  is 
being reviewed annually. As a result, the project’s initial impact measured as benefit-
to-cost ratio has decreased from unprecedentedly high (2,6) to merely average (1,4) 
with the initial cost estimate of GBP 32 billion increased to GBP 56 billion.  

17 High Speed 2 (HS2). Available: 
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:FuJnsnNzNSEJ:researchbriefings.files.parliament.
uk/documents/SN00316/SN00316.pdf+&cd=1&hl=ru&ct=clnk&gl=by 
18 High-Speed Rail: Madrid-Barcelona-Figueres. Available: http://www.mega-
project.eu/assets/exp/resources/High_Speed_Rail-Madrid-Barcelona-French-frontier.pdf 

November 2018 

27 

 
 
 
                                           
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Governance arrangements 
The  EU  audit  report  highlights  the  importance  of  setting  up  an  efficient  project 
management  office  with  clearly  defined  responsibilities  and  accountability.  An 
establishing  of  a  transparent  governance  framework  with  strict  role  division  and  pre-
defined KPIs is expected to reduce possible conflict of interest and optimize the decision-
making process.  

The case of the Dutch-German Betuweroute19 freight railway shows the potential risks 
of  an  inadequate  governance  structure.  Insufficient  international  collaboration  and, 
presumably,  the  differences  in  initial  expectations  have  doubled  the  project’s  budget 
and caused capacity constraints on the German side of the railway. Despite low (around 
1%) funding involvement, Germany delayed construction of its section, impeding the 
flow of cross-border transport. In 2000, the Court of Audit convicted the government 
on having issued unrealistic forecasts about cost, environmental effects and usage of 
the  Betuweroute20.  In  2016  ProRail,  the  Dutch  rail infrastructure  manager  and  Dutch 
Railways were fined EUR 2,3 million for failing to meet standards required by terms of 
freight (and passenger) movements21. 

Commercialization 
The  assessment  of  project  commercialization  practices  indicates  that  proactive 
commercial  activities  (i.e.  development  of  a  value  proposition,  engagement  with  the 
market,  early-stage  marketing  of  the  project  to  potential  partners  and  customers, 
negotiations and commercial agreements) typically start at  the final stages of project 
delivery.  Project  managers  tend  to  unjustifiably  underestimate  the  value  of  early 
adoption of commercial practices and increase the risk of underperformance. 

Commercialization,  contrary  to  popular  perception,  links  all  key  stages  of  a  project 
extending  into  design,  a  business  case,  planning,  implementation  and  launch  of  rail 
services.  Empowered  commercial  teams  allow  projects  to  timely  identify  underlying 
market  changes  and  bridge  the  gap  between  technical  execution  and  operational 
requirements. 

The  Eurotunnel  experience  reveals  that  project  managers  had  underestimated  the 
detrimental impact of a key market player – competing shipping transport. During the 
construction of the Eurotunnel, ferry operators invested as much as half of Eurotunnel’s 
budget22 into improving operational efficiency and reducing fares. At the time of launch, 
the  Eurotunnel  was  forced  to  set  its  tariffs  at  a  level  below  those  projected,  which 
significantly  reduced  operating  income.  In  addition,  ferry  operators  aggressively 
exploited the marginal difference in value propositions and retained a sizeable customer 
base. As a result, the lack of commercial acumen on Eurotunnel’s part slowed the freight 
shift  from  ferries  to  rail.  The  project  reached  projected  freight  volumes  only  after  10 
years.  

19 TEN-T Large projects - investments and costs. Available: 
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/etudes/join/2013/495838/IPOL-
TRAN_ET(2013)495838_EN.pdf 
20 Cost Overrun in the Public Sector. Available: http://www.icoste.org/ICMJ%20Papers/Cape%20Town-
Vrijland.pdf 
21 About NS. Available: https://www.ns.nl/ 
22 Review of Eurotunnel’s Decision-Making Process. Available: 
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/109900/files/Eurotunnel_WP_070731.pdf  

November 2018 

28 

 
 
 
                                           
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Figure 4 – Eurotunnel cargo flow (million tonnes) 

Source: College of Management of Technology Lausanne, Getlink group 

As illustrated by the above examples, the accuracy of the railway business case as well 
as  validity  of  underlying  economic  and  operational  assumptions  is  one  of  the  most 
vulnerable areas. EU experience shows that railway operates in a highly aggressive and 
dynamic market. Despite its political nature, economic uncertainty over the past decade 
has forced the rail industry to increasingly rely on commercial income. Overconfidence 
derived from the large project scale together with misinterpretation of market signals 
during the development stage may affect both outcomes of the project – commercial 
and operational.  

November 2018 

29 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Trade specifics of the Region 
Past EU experience highlights the imperative role that economic growth plays in large-
scale infrastructure projects. 

Key market development assumptions and economic trends include the following:  

  Transport is expected to reflect overall economic development of the Region and 
is projected to grow at a Cumulative Aggregated Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1-3% 
until 2050; 

  Higher  foreign  demand  is  expected  to  drive  exports,  mainly  to  Central  and 

Western EU countries; 

 

Improving purchasing power parity will sustain internal consumption and allow 
for import growth; 

  Shifting geopolitical interests and growing foreign investments are expected to 
promote  growth  in  value-adding  goods  while  commodities  and  bulk  items  will 
gradually lose their share. 

Economic growth 
Over the last 10 years, trade dynamics in the Region have taken a more neutral outlook. 
The change has been driven by a steady recovery in exports and a controlled growth of 
imports (5-year CAGR 3% vs. 2%, respectively). The positive change has been led by 
Poland with annual export growth reaching 7% and imports – 4%. 

Positive trade trajectory is expected to continue, strengthened by increasing integration 
of the Region into Western markets. In 2016, Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) reached 
around  23,5  billion  EUR,  a  –  the  highest  value  since  the  2008  economic  downturn. 
Attracted  by  a  favorable  economic  and  business  environment,  a  growing  number  of 
companies  are  announcing  plans  to  establish  their  operations  in  the  Region,  such  as 
Ikea, Hella, Continental, Hollister and others. This is expected to foster long-term export 
growth, predominantly in high value-adding goods. 

The  gradual  increase  in  exports  and  economic  maturity  has  led  to  improvements  in 
purchasing power parity (PPP). The Baltic states still have a lower average PPP compared 
to the EU-2823. that ranged from 0,61 to 0,73 in 2016 compared to EU-2824. However, 
following the adoption of the euro the indicator has grown 1-2% in Latvia and Lithuania 
and 6% in Estonia. As a result, private consumption is expected to take a similar trend. 
Yet  demographic  trends  –  ageing  and  a  declining  population  –  pose  a  threat  for 
sustained long-term growth. It is anticipated that the general population may decline 
even by 10% and working-age by 19% by 205025. 

The overall economic forecast driven by exports and private consumption indicates that 
the Region’s GDP growth (Table 2) will surpass the EU average of 1,5% for 2010-203026.  

23 Purchasing power parities. Available: 
http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=prc_ppp_ind&lang=en 
24 Purchasing power parities. Available: 
http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=prc_ppp_ind&lang=en 
25 Population estimates and projections. Available: 
http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=Health-Nutrition-and-Population-Statistics:-
Population-estimates-and-projections 
26 Global Trends to 2030: Can the EU meet the challenges ahead? Available: 
http://ec.europa.eu/epsc/sites/epsc/files/espas-report-2015.pdf 

November 2018 

30 

 
 
 
 
                                           
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Table 2 – Annual GDP growth: historical and forecast, 2010-2030 

Country/Year 
Estonia 
Latvia 
Lithuania 
Poland 
Finland 

2010-2017 
3,3% 
2,5% 
3,3% 
3,3% 
1,0% 

2018-2030 
2,9% 
2,5% 
2,3% 
2,3% 
1,7% 

Source: Eurostat, Euromonitor 

Long-term projections indicate Poland will become the fastest growing EU economy by 
205027 fueled by its increasing strengths: competitive labor costs, comparatively highly 
educated  workforce,  stable  economic  governance  and  shift  from  labor  intensive  low-
tech to high-tech production28. The Baltic states are expected to benefit from financial 
and trade openness, integration of the labor market, low public debt and comparatively 
stable political and economic environment. 

Trade dynamics 
In  2017,  countries  of  the  Region  exported  more  than  221  million  tons  while  imports 
accounted  for  266  million  tons  (Figure  5).  Cumulative  trade  with  the  EU-28  was  the 
fastest growing at 3,8%, surpassing other trade partners. The growth of imports was 
consistent with previous years at around 3%.29 

Figure 5 – Exports and imports by regions of origin and destination 

Source: Comext database 

Trade within countries of the Region 

In  2017,  exports  within  the  Region  accounted  for  around  13%  and  imports  10%  of 
corresponding totals. Cumulative export and import volumes remained relatively stable 

27 The Long View – How will the global economic order change by 2050? Available:  
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-summary-report-feb-2017.pdf 
28 The World in 2050 Will the shift in global economic power continue? Available: 
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/the-economy/assets/world-in-2050-february-2015.pdf 
29 International trade. Available: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/newxtweb/setupdimselection.do 

November 2018 

31 

 
 
 
                                           
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

during  2012-2016  (CAGR  1,3%  for  both)  but  showed  rapid  growth  reaching, 
respectively,  6,6%  and  9,4%  during  2017.  Lithuanian  and  Finnish  exports  to  other 
Region countries grew at the fastest rate of around 5%. The growth of Finnish exports 
to Latvia and Lithuania accounted for 11,6% and 15,8%, respectively, while Lithuanian 
exports  to  Poland  grew  10,8%.  Polish,  Latvian  and  Estonian  exports  remained  fairly 
stable  (1,3%,  -0,1%  and  -1,3%,  respectively)  as  they  refocused  trade  to  other  EU 
markets. 

Trade with EU countries 

EU countries are the main export partners of the Region accounting for around 62% of 
total exports. Since 2012, export volumes have grown at a steady 3,8% but reached 
22% in 2017. The growth was driven by the Region’s recovering manufacturing sector 
and increased demand in Southern Europe (Italy and Spain) followed by Slovakia and 
Hungary. Still, the key export markets remained unchanged, with  Germany, Sweden, 
Finland, the Netherlands, Czech Republic and UK being the largest. 

Imports  from  EU  countries  accounts  for  over  1/3  of  all  Region’s  imports  (97  million 
tons). In 2017, import volumes recovered at double digit rates (16,8%) following fairly 
flat growth during 2012-2016. The change was driven by increasing demand from the 
manufacturing sector in the Baltic states and Poland. Over the last 5 years, imports from 
Spain  almost  doubled  followed  by  Hungary  and  Italy.  UK  and  Swedish  imports 
contracted  reflected  lower  local  demand  for  crude  materials.  Top  import  origins  were 
Germany, Czech Republic and Sweden.  

Trade with third countries 

Exports outside the EU accounted for 25% (56 million tons) of total exports. Since 2012, 
export volumes have grown by approximately 3% annually. In contrast to inter-Regional 
and EU, the trade growth in third countries was moderate, accounting for only 1,8% in 
2017. Key export markets were the United States, Ukraine, Russia, China and Turkey. 
Rather unexpectedly some new markets, such Singapore and Saudi Arabia (with growth 
accounting for 44,5% and 22,3% in 2017), emerged driven mainly by food items and 
livestock.  Export  volumes  to  Russia  plummeted  -13,3%  –  a  result  of  EU  imposed 
sanctions  –  with  the  most  noticeable  decline  in  food  and  livestock  (-27,1%)  and 
manufactured goods (-14,8%). 

Imports  out  of  the  3rd  countries  accounted  for  54%  (142  million  tons)  of  the  total 
imports,  dominated  by  Russia,  Ukraine,  Belarus  and  Norway.  In  2017,  the  fastest 
growing  import  origins  were  Colombia  (116,7%),  Saudi  Arabia  (66,6%)  and  Iraq 
(56,7%) driven by economic sanctions to Russia and redirected imports of petroleum 
products. Imports from Ukraine and Norway declined by 4%. 

Trade commodities 
The  changes  within  top  traded  commodities  (Figure  6)  reflect  structural  economic 
changes and an increasing role of manufacturing sector which is becoming the engine 
of economic development in the Region.  

November 2018 

32 

 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Figure 6 – Top export commodity groups and trade volume changes 

Source: Comext database 

The growth in export volume has been led by such commodity groups as beverages and 
tobacco (10,9%), misc. manufactured articles (8,0%) and chemicals (7,0%), whereas 
raw materials and mineral fuels remained relatively stable. In 2017, the share of food 
and live animals category grew by 2,5%, reflecting increased trade with Saudi Arabia. 
Mineral  fuels  contracted  (-2,2%)  losing  its  No.  2  position  to  crude  materials,  even 
though year on year growth in absolute volumes remained positive. 

Figure 7 – Top import commodity groups and trade volume changes 

Source: Comext database 

Positive  developments  in  manufacturing  and  private  consumption  accounted  for  the 
increase in imports of raw materials and manufactured goods (Figure 7). Mineral fuels, 
which include  energy  resources  such  as  coal  and  gas,  remained  the  largest  imported 
commodity  group,  yet  its  share  contracted  (around  -1%)  in  2017.  Crude  materials 
accounted for the most significant change in both absolute and relative terms. During 

November 2018 

33 

 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

the year 2017 the share of crude materials has decreased by 4,8%, driven mainly by 
diminishing imports from EU countries (-4,6%).  

Freight ecosystem 
The  Region’s  freight  ecosystem  mimics  the  economic  developments  described  above 
and  is  further  amplified  by  underlying  changes  in  trade.  Key  freight  specifics  for  the 
Region include the following: 

  Road transport is the dominant mode of transportation which value proposition 

corresponds with existing market needs. 

  Overall Baltic transport market is expected to grow at CAGR up to 2% driven by 
road  in  a  short-term;  rail’s  contribution  is  expected  to  increase  following  the 
commissioning of Rail Baltica.   

  Conventional  rail  freight  is  aging  and  shows  signs  of  decline.  Future  freight 
growth is expected to be driven predominantly by value-adding freight types. 
  The impact of EU regulations has not yet delivered on their desired impact in the 
Region.  That  said,  increasing  road  congestion  coupled  with  environmental 
concerns are seen as major modal shift drivers.  

Freight volume forecast 
Further analysis focuses predominantly on the development of the transport segment 
in the three Baltics states as the main catchment area of projected Rail Baltica freight 
flows. Review  of trade  data coupled with a qualitative market  study indicate relevant 
Polish and Finnish trade flows to be captured in the Baltic statistics under road transport. 
To  reduce  the  risk  of  double  counting,  we  are  convinced  that  Baltic  freight  volume 
forecast  is  the  most  accurate  data  point  assessing  Rail  Baltica’s  freight  potential  and 
future impact. The forecast for the development of the transport market is presented in 
Figure 8. 

Figure 8 – Freight volume growth in the Baltic States, million tons, 2018-
2055 

Source: Civitta 

The Baltic transport market is expected to reflect the overall economic development of 
the Region and grow at CAGR up to 2%. Integration of the Region into the EU economy 

November 2018 

34 

 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

is anticipated to be the main growth engine. We forecast cargo volumes to increase by 
up to 50% over the next 30 years, primarily driven by increased internal consumption 
and development of the value-adding manufacturing sector. While the underlying freight 
shift  from  conventional  to  value-adding is  expected  to  benefit  mostly  road  transport, 
absolute freight volumes attributable to rail will remain relatively stable and is expected 
to grow following the commissioning of Rail Baltica. 

Rail Baltica freight flow projections       

Table 3 – Rail Baltica freight flow estimates, million tons, 2026-2055 

EY 
AECOM 
*Numbers in italics indicate calculated values 

2030 
15,9 
12,9 

2035 
17,0 
14,3 

2026 
15,0 
11,6 

2040 
17,5 
15,8 

2045 
18,0 
- 

2050 
18,9 
- 

2055 
20,0 
- 

 Source: EY, AECOM, Civitta calculations 

To date, two of the most comprehensive studies capturing Rail Baltica’s freight market 
potential are the AECOM study and the CBA by EY. Both analyses rely on the Region’s 
economic  development  as  a  proxy  for  assessing  transport  market  growth.  In  their 
estimates,  the  studies  incorporate  a  macroeconomic  perspective  and  other  economic 
indicators  such  as  demographics,  industrial  and  service  development,  economic 
integration,  environmental  policies.  EY  also  considers  specific  Rail  Baltica  project 
characteristics  (value-added  services,  transport  costs,  competitiveness  of  services, 
policies, etc.)30 but do not describe them in depth. 

Additionally, AECOM’s assumptions incorporate EC targets to achieve a 50% shift from 
road to rail over medium distances by 2050.31 Similarly, EY looks at modal shift targets, 
but their assumptions are more conservative32. Still, overall EY freight flow estimates 
are higher compared to AECOM as EY based their projections on a more favorable rail 
freight  recovery  following  the  2008  financial  crisis.  (Absolute  rail  freight  volumes 
decreased  roughly  -15%  from  2008  to  2009.)  Rail  Baltica  freight  flow  estimates  are 
presented in Table 3.  

Key conditions to achieve set modal share targets  and projected growth according to 
AECOM include:  

  Reliability and flexibility – the competitiveness of rail would be influenced by its 
ability  to  provide  frequent  and  reliable  services  while  providing  flexibility  for 
clients to make changes in delivery schedules and/or volumes; 

 

Journey  distance  and  time  –  rail  becomes  competitive  financially  in  longer 
distances due to high fixed  costs. Fast and  convenient delivery combined with 
integrated solutions is becoming the market standard; 

  Environmental  factors  –  currently  more  of  a  government  priority  but  this  is 
changing  fast  as  demand  from  customers  increases  and  corporations  become 
involved in practices to reduce their “carbon footprint”; 

30  Rail  Baltica  Global  Project  Cost-Benefit  Analysis.  Available:  http://www.railbaltica.org/wp-
content/uploads/2017/04/RB_CBA_FINAL_REPORT_0405.pdf 
31  Roadmap 
content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52011DC0144&from=EN 
32  Rail  Baltica  Global  Project  Cost-Benefit  Analysis.  Available:  http://www.railbaltica.org/wp-
content/uploads/2017/04/RB_CBA_FINAL_REPORT_0405.pdf 

to  a  Single  European  Transport  Area.  Available:  http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-

November 2018 

35 

 
 
 
 
                                           
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

  Competition – the number of companies involved in providing rail services would 
increase  their  quality  and  prices,  attracting  new  clients  and  increasing 
attractiveness of the freight corridor; 

  Rail productivity – the quality of infrastructure and equipment would be crucial 
for  providing  users  with  the  most  cost-efficient  solutions,  which  would  require 
having longer and heavier trains and accordingly proper supporting systems33. 

AECOM  has  also  recognized  some  structural  threats  that  might  impact  economic 
development of the Region as well as modal shift.   

Table 4 – Potential threats to Rail Baltica development 

Risks related to economic growth 

Risks related to lack of modal shift 

  Financial risks that would require shifting 

 

large financial investments from economic 
development to climate change mitigation 
(e.g. rising sea level); 

  The geopolitical situation leading to 

protectionism and reduced trade volumes; 

  Lack of economic integration between the 

Baltic states and broader region; 

  Urgent demographic situation in Region 

countries. 

Source: AECOM 

Rail Baltica challenge 

Increased competitiveness and environmental 
friendliness of road transport that would 
diminish current benefits of rail; 

  Further technological breakthroughs favoring 
road and maritime transport in terms of 
speed, quality of service, efficiency, etc. and 
insufficient development of technological 
solutions of rail; 

  Current forecasts assume successful value-

adding freight shift from road to rail. 
However, current rail infrastructure does not 
meet conditions of the market regarding the 
service level of transportation of value-adding 
goods. 

Paraphrasing economic projections, findings of existing studies and lessons of previous 
rail infrastructure projects, the challenge is self-evident: for Rail Baltica to be successful, 
rail  is  expected  to  increase  commercial  efficiency  and  meet  operational  and  service 
quality needs  of the  ever-demanding market.  While the challenge is not new and, as 
our  discussions  with  national  incumbents  show,  well  recognized,  the  transportation 
industry is rapidly changing.  

At its inception rail was designed to move high freight volumes between major industrial 
centers.  Today,  however,  heavy  industries  have  been  largely  replaced  by  smaller 
commercial entities with more  sophisticated logistic flows.  Prompt manufacturing has 
optimized  flow  times  within  production  operations  as  well  as  response  times  from 
suppliers  and  to  customers.  The  overall  supply  chain  has  become  highly  demand 
sensitive and rail, characterized by its less dynamic nature, is often challenged to meet 
customers’ logistic needs.  

Moreover, we find that the typical company in the Region focuses mostly on distribution 
rather than on holistic supply chain management. Quite often local businesses require 
highly responsive, flexible and readily available transport solutions. Freight flows have 
become  fragmented  and  low  economies  of  density  have  diminished  rail’s  operational 
and commercial competitiveness. This has shaped a somewhat negative perception of 
rail characterized by: 

33 AECOM Rail Baltica Final Report. Available: http://www.railbaltica.org/wp-
content/uploads/2017/05/AECOM_Final_Report_Volume_I.pdf 

November 2018 

36 

 
 
 
                                           
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

 

Inadequate  rail  value  proposition  (incl.  high  cost,  low  service  quality,  poor 
customer experience);  

  Low  time  schedule  reliability  with  unpredictable  and  comparatively  long  lead 

times; 

 

Insufficient opportunities for transshipments; and 

  Lack of interoperability, limited options for cabotage in cross border shipments. 

The RBBN discussions have also revealed still a strong emphasis on the political process 
which  has  dimmed  the  project’s  role  as  a  public  and  commercial  service.  The  cross-
border nature of the project made this vision even harder to develop.  As a result, we 
find that establishing a forward-looking commercially sound vision on Rail Baltica’s role 
in the Region’s future transport market would considerably strengthen the true potential 
for the project.  

Key operational parameters for successful rail operations  

In the following subsections we review the interviews grouped by type of customer: 

  High  Density  Low  Value  (HDLV)  –  conventional  rail  customer  whose  major 
products  account  for  freight  types  with  load  density  higher  than  300  kg/m3. 
Typically,  they  represent  mature  industries  dominated  by  high  freight  volume 
such as grain, agriculture and forestry, bulk chemicals and fertilizes, etc.      

  Low  Density  High  Value  (LDHV)  –  business  whose  major  products  account  for 
freight types with load density equal or below 300 kg/m3. These are companies 
representing  high-value  industries,  such  as  FMCG,  electronics,  machinery, 
furniture, etc.        

In the context of Rail Baltica, the proposed segmentation allows us to establish a link 
between the dominant logistic parameters and type of customers. In a simplified matrix, 
we  find  the  choice  of  transport  mode  to  be  a  function  of  cost  and  service  quality. 
Intuitively, HDLV gravitates towards cost as a key determinant, whereas service quality 
is a dominant factor for LDHV. A generalized comparison of road and rail perception is 
provided in Table 5.  

Table 5 – Perception of transport modes: road vs. rail 

Road 

Rail 

Commercial 
attractiveness 

Operational 
efficiency 

Road is commercially aggressive. 
Prices tend to fluctuate 
throughout the year, but overall 
remained stable over the last few 
years. Currently, road offers the 
highest value for price. 

Road is considered to offer the 
highest level of operational 
flexibility. Road accepts partial 
loads. Multiple door-to-door 
deliveries are common on a 
single route. However, some 
businesses indicate shortage of 
available trucks in the Region, 
esp. following economic 
sanctions on Russia.       

Lack of integrated first/last mile 
coupled with costly loading/ 
unloading services diminishes 
economic advantages. At the time of 
the study, market indicates that the 
cost of rail (based on incumbents’ 
pricing) may be up to 2-3 times 
higher compared to road on 
comparable routes.  

SMEs find current rail services less 
relevant to operations. Larger 
companies complain about lack of 
rolling stock, while existing rail tends 
to be dated. Lack of efficient 
reloading services (e.g. unpackaged 
bulk items such as fertilizers, grain). 
Low time schedule predictability and 
reliability.       

November 2018 

37 

 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Road 

Rail 

Customer centric services, incl. 
easy order and document 
processing, operational flexibility. 
Businesses emphasize 
transparent and well-established 
working relationships.  

Insufficient know-how, lack of 
transparency and commercial 
flexibility. Businesses complain 
about high surcharges for 
additional services, complex and 
inefficient documentation. Rail is 
slow to adapt to market needs. 

Service quality 

Source: Company interviews 

In  practice,  however,  all  stakeholders  recognize  a  strong,  almost  linear,  correlation 
between cost and service quality. The major difference between HDLV and LDHV is cost 
price elasticity. Due to maturity and low profitability of bulk products, interviewed HDLV 
companies interviewed emphasized the need for the most economical logistic solutions. 
On a pure cost basis (e.g. when transporting fertilizers, chemicals, grain, animal feed, 
etc.),  rail  is  recognized  as  a  direct  competitor  to  maritime  transport.  HDLV  business 
note  that  road  is  increasingly  becoming  a  more  economic  transport  mode  even  for 
volume  intensive  freight  types.  The  major  advantage  of  road  transport  is  reduced 
logistic complexity as first/last mile, reloading, and interim storage is eliminated. LDHV, 
on  the  other  hand,  stress  the  need  for  the  highest  value-adding  logistic  solutions. 
Businesses indicate that they would be willing to incur higher transportation costs if rail 
could  improve  reliability,  lead-times  and  ensure  freight  safety  of  fragile  goods.  The 
interviews show that LDHVs largely rely on road. Companies are mostly interested in 
rail as a long-term alternative to road.  

Cost of delivery  

As stated above, all companies interviewed referenced transportation costs. The major 
difference between these two types of customers is cost tolerance as LHDV is typically 
more profitable and transportation costs account for a considerably lower share in the 
overall cost structure compared to HDLV. At the same time, it is important to recognize 
that most of the regional LDHVs are relatively small and highly sensitive to cash flow. 
Our study reveals that, under current commercial railway practices, large consignments 
would  stress  SMEs’  financial  resources.  Companies  are  focused  on  streamlining  their 
value chains, therefore an increase in inventory would outweigh possible transportation 
efficiency gains. One of a major retail chains has even commented that they would lack 
capacity  to  process  large  one-time  shipments.  Full  trains  could  potentially  cause 
operational bottlenecks.  

Large companies which operate with tight profit margins highlight that transport cost 
account for roughly 30% of their total operating costs. To maximise their profitability 
companies  use  short-sea  shipping  as  the  most  cost-efficient  mode  of  transport.  Bulk 
freighters carry shipments of up to 30 thousand tones. Whereas the maximum axel load 
and train length is regulated in the EU, the average train load is in a range of 2000 – 
2500  tonnes.  Aiming  to  optimize  their  supply  chain,  such  larger  businesses  have 
invested in building storage facilities at sea ports both at origin and destination points. 
High switching costs for shifting from marine to rail is a major obstacle. 

Nevertheless, HDLV consider rail as a viable alternative especially for accessing some 
landlocked  geographical  areas  in  Central  and  South  Europe.  The  major  condition  is 
productivity  achievable  through  streamlined  logistic  operations.  Large  businesses 
interviewed  indicated  a  need  for  a  direct  and  efficient  rail  link  to  production  sites. 
Existing infrastructure is based  on a  broad-gauge and, therefore, would not allow for 
direct access to Rail Baltica. Reloading at rail terminals is largely believed to increase 
transportation  costs.  Also,  efficient  loading  and  unloading  would  require  specialized 

November 2018 

38 

 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

rolling stock, such as covered hopper cars. Certain goods (grain or paper rolls) require 
handling in a covered hall which increase investments in industrial warehouses.    

Participants of the RBBN expressed a keen interest in modernizing and integrating local 
railway infrastructure under Rail Baltica. The interoperability of local and international 
railway  lines  through  the  broader  rail  freight  corridor  North  Sea-  Baltic  initiatives  are 
believed to increase the utilization of future Rail Baltica operations. A similar sentiment 
is shared among companies that are looking for fully integrated commercially efficient 
solutions rather than extended geographical reach. 

Quite often businesses have emphasized that current rail costs could be up to 2-3 times 
higher compared to road transport. Even if regional companies recognize the growing 
importance  of  sustainable business practices,  the  economic  cost difference is  still too 
significant to outweigh environmental concerns.   

Service quality 

In  this  report  we  use  service  quality  as  a  broad  definition  that  captures  all  major 
elements of the business value chain. In marketing terms, it can also be referred to as 
a  value  proposition.  As  shown  through  EU  experience  rail  services  today  compete 
against other transport modes, which has set a high service quality standard. Companies 
interviewed believe that the rail industry operates below its commercial potential. Over 
the  past  decades  it  has  failed  to  provide  consistently  reliable  service.  To  increase  its 
attractiveness, the market expects Rail Baltica to provide productivity and operational 
efficiency gains as well as deliver improved customer service.     

Most  often  we  heard  comments  regarding  inefficient  lead  times  and  low  schedule 
predictability.  Businesses  noted  that  distances  which  normally  could  be  covered  in  a 
single working day by road may take up to 3-5 days to get to by rail. Some companies 
remarked that they could adapt their planning to accommodate longer transit times, but 
for  others  it  is  a  key  element  for  remaining  competitive.  For  example,  a  FMCG 
manufacturer interviewed highlighted that its logistic operations are largely determined 
by strict retailer requirements. Short shelf life food products out of that company’s plant 
in Lithuania are expected to reach a retailer in Tallinn (approximately 600 km) within 
24  hours.  Despite  regular  shipments,  the  company  is  rather  reserved  towards  rail 
services noting the relatively high risk of breaching the conditions of the agreement with 
the customer. 

Regional  furniture  producers  operating  as  sub-contracting  manufacturers  for  a  major 
global  furniture  brand  indicate  having  no  influence  over  their  logistic  operations.  An 
estimated value of products supplied out of the Baltic states and Poland is in the range 
of 2 billion EUR. The segment is expected to grow at approximately 30% annually for 
the next 5 years. Yet the furniture retail chain is said to avoid dependency on a single 
carrier.  It  has  rigorous  requirements  for  selecting  logistic  operators  and  national  rail 
incumbents are typically excluded at the pre-selection stage. 

LDHV representatives commented that rail does not offer volume advantages (compared 
to road) when transporting low density cargo. Companies also stress cargo safety as a 
major disadvantage of rail transport. Multiple loading and unloading, lack of specialized 
cargo  handling  equipment,  vibration  during  transport,  and  high  force  impact  during 
shunting increase the risk of physical damage and potential financial losses.   

The  fact  that  point-to-point  distribution  is  gradually  being  replaced  by  door-to-door 
deliveries is detrimental to rail’s current value proposition. For quite some time this has 
been mostly relevant to LDHV, but currently the trend is noticeable among HDLVs as 
well.  For  example,  fertilizers  are  being  delivered  directly  from  the  manufacturers  to 
larger  farmers.  Both  commodity  and  value-adding  markets  have  become  highly 

November 2018 

39 

 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

competitive.  Manufacturers  are  facing  highly  demanding  end-customers  and,  as 
mentioned previously, expect their supply chain partners to take an active role in finding 
optimal logistic solutions.     

Large  businesses  also  note  that  their  operations  are  cyclical  and  require  operational 
flexibility. Exact planning can seldom be done as an annual plan. Companies note that 
freight  flow  management  requires  high  responsiveness  to  match  commercial  needs. 
However,  existing  path  allocation  and  planning  practices  are  sub-optimal,  which  may 
result in capacity constraints or lack of rolling stock especially during peak seasons.  

It is also quite evident that digitization is setting new customer service expectations and 
standards.  Criticism  to  existing  rail  business  practices  range  from  bureaucratic  rail 
service ordering processes, manual document processing, lack of transparent and all-
inclusive pricing, and absence of real-time cargo tracking. In general, companies lack 
know-how working with rail as well as proactive customer service and/or digital solutions 
which would ensure full prior and post-sales support services.    

Even if not clearly voiced, the somewhat reluctant participation of many local companies 
during RBBN events could be associated with a lack of confidence that Rail Baltica alone 
could bring substantial change to the institutionalized  railway industry. Ambitions are 
high among political stakeholders and multinational companies; however, local private 
business still require a well-defined value proposition to engage in a more constructive 
dialogue.  

Nonetheless,  in  the  course  of  the  RBBN  network  events  and  study  research  we  have 
identified several individual companies whose existing logistic needs are not fully met 
and who would see potential in rail transport opportunities, e.g.: 

Logistics Operator, forwarder (LDHV) 

We help our customer in Germany to transport cellulose and other raw semi-
processed materials to CIS countries. We currently use road from Germany to 
Lithuanian intermodal terminals (KIT and VIT) as the most economic transport 
mode. However, efficient rail connection with Western Europe could replace 
road transport and potentially generate additional freight to CIS countries via 
the Baltics. Baltics are seen favorably on the EU transport scene.  

Agricultural product processor (HDLV) 

Our minimum volume shipments are 3.000 MT and rail has great potential for 
becoming an effective and competitive transport mode linking the Baltics with 
Central Europe. We would expect rail’s proposal to rival marine transport. 

Bedding product manufacturer (LDHV) 

We would welcome all solutions that could reduce the transport time for textiles 
out of China. An efficient and cost-effective connection with Central and 
Western Europe would be a great improvement. We would also be highly 
interested if Rail Baltica would offer a connection to the seaports in the Baltics. 

Timber products manufacturer (LDHV) 

We see Rail Baltica’s potential as an alternative to road on longer distances 
(e.g. 800 – 1.000 km). We would be highly interested if rail could offer capacity 
to handle long products (up to 13m). We’d prefer to use either trailers on 
platforms (this makes handling of our products faster) or containers which 
could be side loaded. 

November 2018 

40 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Fertilizer manufacturer (HDLV) 

Transport of fertilizers between Central Europe and Estonia has some potential 
for rail. Volumes could reach up to 10% of our annual totals (250 thousand 
MT). 

Grain processor (HDLV) 

We would seriously consider transporting eco grain (and some amounts of 
traditional grain) to South European and West European countries. Current 
volumes are still low but we expect significant growth. 

Metal products, machinery and equipment producer (LDHV) 

Road is suboptimal for metal products. Currently, road transport cannot 
effectively handle heavy metal sheets and tubing. But there are no alternative 
transport options. Rail Baltica would be a welcome alternative. If Rail Baltica is 
cost competitive, we would instantly shift to rail as we do not have long-term 
contracts. We’d like to see sustainable RB prices from the start That is, they 
cannot be artificially low at first and then increase later. 

Pulp manufacturer (LDHV) 

We could use rail to transport to Italy, Germany and France as currently we use 
a mix of marine and rail. We believe rail transport to Italy would have the 
highest potential for us. The volumes exported to Italy are relatively high and 
truck shortages are common. 

Electrical equipment manufacturer (LDHV) 

If rail could compete with road we see opportunities for larger shipments. Rail 
Baltica could increase our competitiveness in Central European markets. We 
also expect Rail Baltica to provide cost-effective opportunities for imports from 
Central Europe. 

Conventional vs. value-adding freight development 
As noted earlier, the shift from conventional to value-adding products is an important 
economic  and  trade  growth  driver.  Industry  growth  projections  (Figure  9)  indicate 
diminishing  potential  of  conventional  freight  types  which,  we  expect,  will  impact  the 
share of rail and favor growth in road transport.   

November 2018 

41 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Figure 9 – Rail share (2015, %) and average growth (2015-2025, CAGR, %) 

Source: Eurostat, Euromonitor 

Companies interviewed signal that today’s rail offering is inadequate and less suited to 
accommodate  changing  market  needs  compared  to  alternative  modes  of  transport, 
primarily  road.  Our  study  confirms  a  growing  share  of  LDHV,  which  is  expected  to 
overtake  HDLV  and  dominate  the  overall  transport  market  (Figure  10  –  Growth 
development of LDHV versus HDLV, 2008-2025). 

Figure 10 – Growth development of LDHV versus HDLV, 2008-2025 

Source: Eurostat, Euromonitor databases 

Even though, the HDLV market share is expected to contract, we find that the absolute 
volume will remain relatively stable. Declining rail HDLV is anticipated to be offset by 
growth in road HDLV volumes. This is confirmed by the HDLV businesses, which agree 
that  road  is  becoming  a  preferred  and  economic  means  of  transport.  For  example,  a 
major fertilizer manufacturer indicates that “quite often we do not even consider rail a 

November 2018 

42 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

commercially  viable  option  if  shipment  volume  is  relatively  low  and  could  be  easily 
dispatched  by  trucks”.  Until  the  launch  of  Rail  Baltica,  HDLV  is  projected  to  grow  at 
around 1% annually.  

In  contrast,  LDHV  growth,  both  absolute  and  relative,  is  associated  with  road’s 
development and is expected to surpass the overall growth of the transport segment. 
Short-term, rail LDHV is expected to grow at a conservative 1%, but, assuming service 
quality improvements as part of Rail Baltica’s project, is anticipated to reach 3-4%. 

This trend poses potential short- to medium-term risk to Rail Baltica and the rail industry 
in  general.  The  shift  from  the  conventional  to  value-adding is  expected  to  accelerate 
during  the  next  5  to  10  years.  In  the  long  term,  however,  increased  road  traffic  and 
trucking costs as well as new environmental legislation may open new opportunities for 
Rail Baltica. Even today some companies indicate they are experiencing truck shortages 
and heavy road congestion. We find that companies are typically indifferent to the mode 
of transport if main logistic parameters are met. 

Discussions  with  regional  companies  and  logistical  operators  show  that  highest  Rail 
Baltica potential lies in its ability to improve rail’s offering to meet future market needs. 
However,  businesses  imply:  “we  require  predefined  operational  and  commercial 
concepts  to  consider  its  [Rail  Baltica]  potential  benefits  and  engage  into  a  more 
constructive dialogue”. 

Conventional freight customers 

It is important to recognize that legacy heavy industries as well as rail incumbents in 
the  Region  started  as  state-owned  enterprises  where  business-driven  principles  have 
rather  subdued  implications.  The  non-commercial  character  and  limited  concern  for 
efficient resource management became a major challenge in the free market economy. 
While  HDLVs  were  forced  to  transform  their  business  practices,  national  railway 
companies continued acting as mere government departments. Budgetary constraints, 
insufficient  capital  investments  and  legacy  railway  management  practices  have 
considerably reduced rail’s productivity – a key operational parameter impacting HDLVs’ 
logistic  options.  A  summary  of  HDLV  operational  specifics  and  requirements  to  rail is 
presented in – HDLV companies surveyed – industry profile. 

November 2018 

43 

 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Table 6 – HDLV companies surveyed – industry profile    

Themes of 
interviews / 
Industries 

Chemicals, 
fertilizers 

Mining/ 
Construction  

Grains/ 
Agriculture 

Operational 
specifics 

Major pain 
points 

Rail Baltica 
Expectations 

Companies are 
strategically set to 
West European 
markets. High 
competitive 
pressure, forces 
business to 
optimize their 
supply chain. 
Today, companies 
use rail mostly for 
raw material 
imports from 
Russia.  

Lack of 
interoperability as 
companies’ 
infrastructure relies 
on broad gauge. 
Rail’s productivity is 
diminished by 
inefficient interim 
operations (i.e. 
loading/ unloading). 
Inefficient and 
outdated rolling 
stock fleet, lack of 
specialized rolling 
stock (e.g. weighing 
bunkers). 

Companies are 
interested in 
optimizing supply 
chain to Central 
Europe. Productivity 
gains is an essential 
prerequisite for 
considering rail as 
commercially viable 
transportation 
option. 

Commercial 
companies rely on 
major national 
infrastructure 
projects. Reduced 
scale of 
infrastructure 
projects coupled 
with relatively high 
cost makes rail less 
attractive. Despite 
existing rail 
infrastructure, 
companies 
increasingly rely on 
road transport. 

Companies rely on 
shipping as the 
most economic 
means of transport. 
Large volume 
shipments (e.g. 30 
thousand MT) are 
standard. 
Specialized lower 
vol. consignments 
to neighbor markets 
are transported via 
road. Rail is used 
only in domestic 
markets.   

Cost 
competitiveness. 
Transport accounts 
for a major share of 
operating costs. 
Current rail costs 
are too high for the 
industry. 

Low rail operational 
flexibility and fairly 
low lead time 
reliability.  

Low productivity, 
comparatively high 
cost, shortage of 
rolling stock, lack of 
specialized rolling 
stock (e.g. hopper 
cars). Companies 
expect rail to rival 
shipping transport 
for low volume 
shipments (1.000 – 
3.000 MT).  

Metal products 

Companies often 
lack direct links to 
rail. Most imports 
are from Central 
Europe transported 
using road 
transport. Exports – 
shipping and road 
mostly to 
Scandinavian 
countries. Road is 
considered 
inefficient for metal 
products, but today 
companies lack 
alternatives. 

Lack of 
infrastructure and 
direct access to rail. 
Efficient connection 
with ports. Cost 
competitiveness, 
reliability. 
Capabilities to 
transport oversized 
objects (e.g. vessel 
or drilling platform 
components). 
Limited storage 
capacity. 

Even if Rail Baltica 
is not yet 
recognized as a 
major driver for 
change, business 
would welcome  
service quality 
improvements on 
local/ regional rail 
network. 

Productivity gains. 
Companies 
recognize rail’s 
potential if efficient 
and cost-
competitive link 
with Central Europe 
is established. 
Businesses 
anticipate Rail 
Baltica to rival 
maritime transport.  

Rail Baltica to offer 
alternative 
transportation to 
road transport. 
Current road 
offering is 
suboptimal for 
metal products as it 
cannot effectively 
handle heavy metal 
sheets and tubing.  

Source: Company interviews, expert interviews, Rail Baltica Business Network events 

In the context of rail’s suboptimal productivity, intense competition from other modes 
of  transport  and  increased  requirements  from  HDLV  customers  the  HDLV  customer 
segment  remains  skeptical  towards  Rail  Baltica.  However,  due  to  the  nature  of  their 
business,  HDLVs  actively  seek  optimal  logistic  solutions.  Companies  recognize  that 
revival of rail will require substantial public and private capital investments where active 
involvement  of  all  stakeholders  is  essential.  Large  business  would  be  interested  in 
evaluating real-life business cases which today, they complain, are still too focused on 
conceptual aspects.  

November 2018 

44 

 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Suggestions to revitalize HDLV freight railways 

HDLV highlight that restoring rail’s productivity is one of the basic requirements for Rail 
Baltica  to  succeed.  This  resonates  with  RBBN  discussions  where  participants  have 
encouraged rail operators to rethink railway technology. For over two decades, railway 
industry in the Region has been comprised of fragmented national rail networks rather 
than a functional and integrated transport system. Even though within the North Sea-
Baltic  corridor  member  states  are  expected  to  harmonize  legislation  and  operation 
practices of national railways, RB Rail is still being encouraged to take full ownership of 
educating  the  market  and  connecting  major  stakeholders  of  the  future  railway’s 
operation  in  the  Region.  Suggestions  include  conceptual,  technical  and  operational 
aspects of the project aiming to correspond with evolved market needs and industrial 
advancements.   

Reactivity in the industrial world requires new railway management practices. Experts 
believe  that  the  cross-national  and  commercial  nature  of  Rail  Baltica  together  with 
widening digitalization behind key systems has the potential to utilize Big Data in train 
traffic planning and path allocations. A fully integrated predictive planning model would 
allow  to  optimally  utilize  resources, 
foresee  disruptions  and  offer  effective 
communication  with  end-customers.  Practical  implementation  of  this  kind  of  train 
planning  model  would  include  synchronizing  real-time  train  data,  commercial  order 
status,  movement  and  demand  of  the  rolling  stock,  maintenance  schedule,  etc.  For 
example, if a train transporting grain would be on a way from Estonia to Germany and 
a  Polish  company  would  place  an  order  requiring  hopper  cars,  the  system  would 
estimate the availability of such rolling stock and plan further movement once the train 
reaches its destination. As a result, the customer in Estonia would not be charged for 
the return of empty wagons, the Polish company will be notified of a timely arrival of 
the train and the rail operator would minimize down time for its rolling stock. 

Rail experts admit that such a model would also require an efficient means of traction 
and  flexibility  for  support  staff,  including  maneuvers  in  industrial  areas.  A  potential 
solution could be subsidiarization by establishing local or regional companies with their 
own fleets that match operational requirements of regional companies. Large industrial 
plants  might  have  their  own  fleet  of  suitable  rolling  stock,  while  at  the  same  time  a 
heavy  80-ton  locomotive  is  likely  to  prove  a  considerable  challenge  for  smaller 
customers. Commercially independent companies (potentially jointly owned with local 
business) could effectively manage the fleet, operational risks and financial aspects to 
ensure efficient rail operations. 

To sustain a streamlined long-term innovation RBBN participants stress the importance 
of establishing a Rail Baltica innovation strategy as part of the business case. Experts 
emphasize the importance of open source technology that would allow for third-party 
service integration. Large technology companies typically offer proprietary solutions that 
might limit future development for Rail Baltica.  

RBBN promotes and supports the idea of engaging universities, corporations and start-
ups through a shared platform for submitting ideas and technical solutions as well as 
adopting Building Information Modelling (BIM) to improve the Rail Baltica construction 
planning process. The design of cargo sensor network for real-time monitoring should 
be considered during the early construction phase as it requires detailed designs of 4-
5G masts and sensor cables along the railway tracks, etc. PKP Energetyka (the electricity 
distributor to the Polish railway network) similarly emphasizes that electrification of the 
railway  should  extend  beyond  immediate  railway  needs.  To  optimize  Rail  Baltica’s 
development, it is important to estimate the future requirements of the overall railway 
network,  including  private  railway  and  non-railway  assets  and  infrastructure  such  as 
warehouses, loading equipment, etc.  

November 2018 

45 

 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Value-adding freight customers 

Our study  of  LDHV companies reveals that a typical organization in  the Region has a 
less developed supply chain. Key focus is normally spent on distribution, which makes 
manufacturing  and 
fluctuations. 
Consequently,  business  require  highly  responsive,  flexible  and  readily  available 
transport solutions. Existing rail operations focused primarily on HDLV freight types are 
unable  to  effectively  compete  with  more  dynamic  modes  of  transport.  A  summary  of 
LDHV operational specifics and requirements to rail are presented in  LDHV companies 
surveyed – industry profile. 

logistics  operations  vulnerable 

to  demand 

Table 7 – LDHV companies surveyed – industry profile 

Themes of 
interviews / 
Industries 

Forestry/ Pulp/ 
furniture 

Food/ FMCG 

Textiles 

Electrical 
equipment 

Operational 
specifics 

Major pain 
points 

Rail Baltica 
Expectations 

Majority of industry 
in the Region 
depends on a major 
global furniture 
chain. Companies 
have no impact 
over exports. Raw 
materials are 
typically sourced 
domestically via 
road. Independent 
furniture 
manufacturers 
export directly to 
customers with 
comparatively short 
lead-times. 

Unreliable transport 
services (lead 
times). Lack of 
infrastructure 
resulting in double 
loading which 
diminishes rail’s 
cost advantages. 
Lack of integrated 
first/last mile 
services. Fragile 
goods require 
specialized loading 
solutions to 
minimize physical 
damage. Complex 
pricing principles. 

First and foremost, 
rail requires a 
cultural change, 
incl. business 
practice. Rail Baltica 
has potential if it 
could facilitate the 
move towards 
modernization and 
fully integrated 
customer-centric 
services. 

Food is a highly 
dynamic industry 
dependent on 
product shelf life as 
well as strict 
customer 
requirements. 
Companies require 
isothermal 
conditions during 
transport. Products 
are fragile and 
require gentle 
handling during 
loading/ unloading.  

Lack of general 
experience and 
knowledge, 
undefined value 
proposition, 
perception of high 
risks due to strict 
customer 
requirements. 
Require specialized 
(isothermal) rolling 
stock, lack of which 
continues to be a 
problem on 1435 
mm railways. 

Service quality 
improvements incl. 
reliability, 
operational 
efficiency, 
specialized rolling 
stock, regular and 
specialized 
schedule/ shuttle 
train services within 
Baltic States and 
beyond, integrated 
services to 

Companies typically 
source raw 
materials from 
China. Shipping has 
proven to be the 
most reliable and 
cost-effective mode 
of transport. 
However, 
companies are 
interested in 
shortening lead-
times.   

Products are 
expensive and 
expected to be of 
the highest quality. 
Businesses value 
short lead-times 
and safety of fragile 
goods. Companies 
would consider rail 
for over-sized 
consignments or if 
rail could effectively 
compete with road 
transport.    

Predominantly cost, 
followed by lack of 
integrated services 
and efficient 
international 
connections (i.e. 
China). 

Lack of efficient 
infrastructure.  
Low service 
standards, incl. 
fragile freight 
handling and lead-
times. Transport of 
electric components 
might be highly 
time-sensitive, on-
time deliveries are 
a priority. 
Optimized 
loading/unloading 
to reduce risk of 
physical damage. 

Companies are 
interested in logistic 
solutions which 
could reduce the 
lead-times of 
imports from China, 
an efficient and 
cost-effective 
connection with 
Central and 
Western Europe and 
an effective 

Increase 
competitiveness of 
rail over road 
transport. Open 
new commercially 
viable trade 
channels with 
Central Europe for 
both imports and 
exports. 

November 2018 

46 

 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Themes of 
interviews / 
Industries 

Forestry/ Pulp/ 
furniture 

Food/ FMCG 

Textiles 

Electrical 
equipment 

eliminate first/last 
mile surcharges and 
transparent pricing. 

connection with 
Baltic seaports. 

 Source: Company interviews, expert interviews, Rail Baltica Business Network events 

Due  to  the  dynamic  nature  of  value-added  industries,  LDHVs  are  highly  focused  on 
optimal freight flows, short lead-times and on-time deliveries as major prerequisites for 
switching  to  rail.  Companies  note  that  they  would  consider  higher  price  premiums  if 
major logistic parameters are met. However, LDHVs tend to be more reserved towards 
(co-)  investment  projects  compared  to  HDLV  due  to  limited  financial  resources  and 
readily  available  logistic  alternatives.  Our  discussions  with  SMEs  show  that  certain 
companies have considerable interest in exploring rail, but for most rail might not offer 
an immediate answer. 

Suggestions for developing the LDHV rail freight segment 

Railway  experts  stress  that  public  rail  services  are  not  intended  to  serve  all  logistic 
challenges. While statistic outlook projects an accelerated growth of LDHV, the customer 
segment  represents  diverse  industries  characterized  by  vastly  different  operational 
parameters such as average turnover of products and handling requirements (e.g. retail 
food  products  vs.  heavy  machinery).  Similar  to  the  recommendations  by  HDLVs,  Rail 
Baltica  is  expected  to  focus  on  optimizing  logistic  flows,  increasing  reliability  of  its 
services and gradually expanding offerings. 

Even  though  much  attention  during  the  RBBN  discussion  was  spent  on  technological 
advancements  that  are  expected  to  help  transform  railways  (e.g.  self-driving  trains, 
geofencing,  etc.)  industry  experts  stress  the  importance  of  massification  of  LDHV 
shipments.  One  solution  (which  is  already  being  partially  addressed  by  local 
governments) is to bring small- to medium-size companies to industrial parks or free 
economic trade zones that would be connected to rail. Second, establishing multi-client 
and  multi-industry  modern  warehouses  that  perform  automated  cross-docking, 
packaging and sorting operations. Experts speculate that such warehouses could have 
their own rolling stock and operate in sync with regular inter-regional Rail Baltica freight 
services.  

Local railway freight operators  agree that regular services attract high interest in the 
market. Yet historical freight flows have been insufficient to justify high infrastructure 
development and operational costs. A major difference in such a proposal is that LDHV 
and  HDLV  are  expected  to  generate  complementary  freight  flows  and  allow  for  an 
efficient utilization of Rail Baltica capacities based on a predictive traffic modeling. 

An important assumption for this kind of concept is a fully integrated cross-border rail 
network  (ref.  North  Sea  –  Baltic  rail  freight  corridor).  Individual  warehouses  or  rail 
terminals are expected to operate in conjunction with each other, all working to ensure 
optimal logistical services. While this might be a long-term vision extending beyond Rail 
Baltica implementation, it is highly important that such possibilities are incorporated in 
Rail Baltica planning. 

Businesses encourage clarifying technical and operational Rail Baltica aspects as these 
are expected to determine the future logistic choices. Aiming to strengthen the real-life 
offering,  companies  would  like  to  see  the  service  providers  (transport  companies, 
logistic  operators,  forwarders)  to  be  actively  engaged  in  developing  Rail  Baltica’s 
business case.   

November 2018 

47 

 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Impact of containerization and intermodal shipments 

A major global trend which is expected to generate significant North-South freight flows 
on Rail Baltica is containerization. It is a justified assumption that has been highlighted 
in previous studies on Rail Baltica and is frequently raised during RBBN sessions. Major 
regional road transport companies showed considerable interest in developing this kind 
of business model. Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian incumbent railway companies have 
recently  launched  an  “Amber  train”  which  should  allow  for  an  effective  freight  rail 
connection  on  a  Kaunas-Riga-Tallinn  route.  The  companies  have  already  made  a 
successful trial run and expect launching regular operations in early-2019 with up to 43 
containers/semi-trailers per train.  

While  the  global  industry  of  container  transport  is  expected  to  double  by  202534, 
statistical analysis shows that the primary driving force will remain Asian exports. EU 
container growth (CAGR 5%) is considered relatively conservative compared with the 
global average (CAGR 7% with some developing countries reaching double-digits). This 
is  mostly  due  to  the  slowdown  of  projected  imports  from  China  to  EU.  For  example, 
major Scandinavian ports report marginal growth in containers (from 7.4 in 2009 to 8.2 
million TEU in 202035). 

The Region, however, surpassed the EU in relative container shipment growth (Figure 
11),  mainly  driven  by  Poland.  Although  aggressive  growth  in  Poland  is  attributed  to 
sizeable port expansions during 2009-2013, long-term growth might not be sustainable.  

Figure 11 – Number of containers shipped in the region 

Source: OECD 

Interviews with local companies showed that containers are comparatively expensive, 
especially compared to more traditional means of transport (e.g. road). Companies note 
that containers increase the complexity of the supply chain which could outweigh initial 
cost benefits, especially for those companies that  do not own containers, as rent and 
leasing  is  still  costly.  Additionally,  container  transport  poses  an  ‘empty  container’ 
challenge, particularly when there is no immediate returning cargo. Business emphasize 
a  lack  of  specialized  rolling  stock  for  container  carriage.  We  find  that  the  most 
enthusiastic  advocates  are  typically  logistic  operators,  whereas  local  business  whose 
logistic operations rely on a land transport are slow to change proven logistic practices. 

34 Container Shipping - Statistics & Facts. Available: https://www.statista.com/topics/1367/container-
shipping/ 
35 Baltic transport journal. Available: http://www.baltic-press.com/btj43/___pdf/btj43_11.pdf 

November 2018 

48 

 
 
 
                                           
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

We expect container growth in the Region to slow down and reach an historical European 
level of around 3% for rail. 

Perception of Rail Baltica 
Interviews  with  businesses  indicate  an  overall  positive  perception  of  Rail  Baltica.  As 
noted  earlier,  commercial  expectations  are  largely  based  on  past  experiences  and 
tactical  thinking  rather  than  forward-looking  strategic  planning.  A  summary  of  the 
geographical profile is presented in Table 8 – Geographical profile.  

Table 8 – Geographical profile 

Finland 

Baltics 

Poland 

Themes of 
interviews / 
Regions 

Awareness and 
interest 

Expectations 
for Rail Baltica 

Requirements 
for rail 

Business demonstrates 
some of the greatest 
awareness in the Region 
but act bearish until the 
operational concept and 
value proposition of Rail 
Baltica is defined. 

Finnish companies expect 
maritime transport to 
remain the dominant 
mode for exports but see 
Rail Baltica as a potential 
road replacement for 
value-adding imports 
(West & South EU). 

Market anticipates rail to 
offer shorter overall 
transport lead times and 
improved service quality 
matching or exceeding 
road. 

Similar to Finland, interest 
is high in Estonia, whereas 
expectations of Latvian 
and Lithuanian business 
circles are more 
conservative. 

Awareness is limited but 
aspirations are high 
(specifically to utilize the 
1435mm section to 
Kaunas in upcoming 
years).  

Expectations towards Rail 
Baltica differ among the 
Baltic countries but are 
overall positive. 

Companies mostly see Rail 
Baltica as an alternative to 
road for exports into 
Central and Western 
European markets. 

Estonian enterprises stress 
convenience and high 
service standards among 
their top requirements, 
whereas Latvian and 
Lithuanian companies 
anticipate high railway 
efficiency and low cost. 

Businesses see Rail Baltica 
as an important element 
for regional business 
development. 

North-Eastern Polish 
regions expect Rail Baltica 
to offer easy access to 
Baltic seaports. 

Market anticipates rail to 
offer shorter overall 
transport lead times and 
service quality matching 
or exceeding road. 

Some local transport 
operators indicate concern 
as Rail Baltica could 
disrupt existing logistic 
operations, e.g. reloading 
broad-gauge trains on the 
Polish end. 

Concerns 

Companies seldom have 
experience working with 
rail and their expectations 
may appear exaggerated 
and lacking specifics. 

Business requires 
predefined operational 
concepts to engage in a 
more constructive 
discussion about Rail 
Baltica. 

 Source: Company interviews, expert interviews, Rail Baltica networking events 

November 2018 

49 

 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Interestingly,  the  RBBN  sessions  revealed  different  positions  towards  Rail  Baltica  in 
different  RB  countries.  While  Finland  and  the  three  Baltic  countries  share  a  general 
cross-national  perspective  that  looks  to  establish  an  integrated  rail  link  with  Central 
Europe, Poland’s position tends to focus primarily on local interests. Polish companies 
showed rather limited awareness and interest towards RB in the RBBN sessions citing 
insufficient  information  and  a  lack  of  timely  updates  on  the  project’s  status.  Much 
attention  during  the  meetings  was  spent  on  regional  railway  needs  and  sessions  in 
Suwalki  and  Elk  highlighted  the  potentially  detrimental  impact  of  newly  established 
intermodal terminals in the Baltics to the local transport industry and the port of Gdansk.  

Polish business, however, did show considerable interest in an efficient railway link with 
the  Baltics,  especially  in  accessing  Baltic  seaports.  Representatives  of  international 
carriers as well as the regional municipality at the Bialystok event highlighted a lack of 
effective connection with Belarus and Russia, which would be of even greater strategic 
importance  compared  to  the  Baltic  states.  Such  views  indicate,  an  imperative  role  of 
Rail Baltica which could become an important stepping stone in building a shared cross-
national transport vision in the region. Especially if parallel projects (focused on Asian 
freight growth) are approved during the construction phase of Rail Baltica. 

November 2018 

50 

 
 
 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

Conclusion 
Our study seeks to contribute to the development of the Rail Baltica business case by 
evaluating the shortfalls of major European infrastructure projects, highlighting major 
economic and commercial trends in the Region, shedding light on the logistical needs of 
major regional enterprises and establishing prerequisites for successful rail operations. 

We find that large-scale infrastructure projects commonly lack systematic evaluation of 
interim  deliverables.  Business  cases  insistently  rely  on  initial  assumptions  that  are 
subject  to  change  during  the  lifecycle  of  a  project.  Commercialization  activities  are 
typically  delayed  until  the  final  stages  of  project  delivery,  increasing  the  risk  of 
discrepancy between technical and operational requirements. The feedback loop tends 
to be interrupted, undermining objective decision-making and corrective actions. 

We  find  that  current  Rail  Baltica  discussions  rely  on  the  political  process,  which  has 
somewhat  dimmed  the  project’s  role  as  a  public  and  commercial  service.  The  cross-
border nature of the project has made this vision even harder to develop. As a result, 
we find that establishing a forward-looking, commercially sound vision on the role for 
Rail Baltica in the Region’s future transport market would considerably strengthen the 
true potential for the project.  

We  highlight  the  importance  of  early  commercialization  efforts  and  engagement  with 
potential Rail Baltica end-customers. We find that addressing the gap between political 
and commercial interests requires considerable attention. While RB Rail and RB national 
implementing bodies are prone to an affiliation with national railway incumbents, due 
to historical reasons and owing to the relatively small pool of railway competence in the 
Region,  we  recognize  that  the  Project  Developer  should  consistently  represent  the 
interest of the entire railway’s value chain. Reflecting on the views of local business and 
industry’s  experts,  we  recommend  that  the  RB  Rail  takes  a  more  proactive  role  in 
establishing the blueprint for Rail Baltica’s commercial plan. 

Statistical analysis of macroeconomic trends indicates that the Region’s integration into 
the EU economy is expected to be an underlying engine of trade growth. We forecast 
cargo volumes to grow by over 50% in the next 30 years mostly driven by increased 
consumption and development of the manufacturing sector in the Region.  

Despite absolute growth in freight volume, we project the modal share of rail to continue 
decreasing reflecting an industrial shift towards value adding. The assessment of LDHV 
logistic practices revealed that a typical organization in the Region has underdeveloped 
supply  chain.  This  makes  manufacturing  and  logistics  operations  vulnerable  to  the 
fluctuations  of  demand.  Consequently,  businesses  require  highly  responsive,  flexible 
and readily available transport solutions. However, rail characterized by its less dynamic 
nature, is quite often challenged to meet customers’ logistic needs.  

Furthermore,  we  find  that  many  potential  end-customers  interviewed  still  largely 
associate  Rail  Baltica  with  national  rail  networks  rather  than  with  a  fully  integrated 
cross-national transport system. Lack of actual change in the national railway industries 
and, at this point, relatively high operational uncertainty reduces the perception of real-
life value of the project. It is our belief that the gap between the vision and perception 
of  real-life  implications  mentioned  earlier  is  a  major  barrier  to  attracting  adequate 
market attention and reaching the Rail Baltica’s true potential. 

This trend may pose potential short- to medium-term risks in attracting projected rail 
freight volumes. Nonetheless, in the long term, increased traffic, road congestion and 
truck  drivers’  shortages  coupled  with  increased  trucking  costs  due  to  tightening 
environmental legislation are expected to accelerate the development of rail.    

In  parallel,  we  recognize  that  rail  is  not  intended  to  address  all  logistical  challenges. 
Combined,  HDLV  and  LDHV  represent  diverse  industries  characterized  by  different 

November 2018 

51 

 
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

operational parameters. As such, the business case of Rail Baltica could be considerably 
strengthened by targeted commercialization efforts as well as engaging in early dialogue 
with  high-potential  customers.  Our  study  indicates  that  HDLV  companies  aimed  at 
increasing  the  value-added  offering  (e.g.  ecologically  produced  grain,  cellulose  and 
other higher value raw materials) and larger LDHV companies whose logistic needs are 
not yet fully met (e.g. heavy machinery and electrical equipment), represent the most 
promising segments. 

We show that an important prerequisite for further Rail Baltica development within HDLV 
is  productivity  gains.  To  remain  competitive,  large  companies  expect  that  railway 
operators  will  offer  fully  integrated  and  commercially  efficient  logistic  solutions.  This 
captures  modernization  of  the  rolling  stock  fleet,  including  specialized  wagons  (e.g. 
hopper  cars),  which  could increase  the  efficiency  of  loading/unloading  of  unpackaged 
goods; covered halls for reloading and interim storage; effective local means of traction; 
solutions for integrating existing broad-gauge railway infrastructure with EU-standard 
gauge; interoperability of national and international railway lines; operational flexibility 
to adequately react to capacity changes; and integrated first/ last mile services.  

LHDVs, on the other hand, stress the importance of optimizing rail’s service quality that 
would  match  the  standard  set  by  road.  This  refers  to  reliability  of  railway  services, 
including  on-time  deliveries,  cost  competitiveness,  physical  safety  of  fragile  goods, 
simplified documentation and harmonization and digitization of customer services (e.g. 
on-line interaction and support, real-time cargo tracking, etc.). 

Businesses  recognize  that  revival  of  rail  in  the  Region  is  a  shared  responsibility 
extending beyond Rail Baltica – one that requires substantial public and private capital 
investments. Financial capabilities as well as corporate approval processes vary among 
businesses, thus timely evaluation of real-life business cases (including partnering and 
co-investment opportunities) is once again highlighted as an important factor that might 
accelerate the shift towards the rail. As such, in Figure 12 – Suggested timeline for Rail 
Baltica commercialization activities, we present an indicative timeline which could guide 
successful commercialization activities for Rail Baltica. 

Figure 12 – Suggested timeline for Rail Baltica commercialization activities 

Finally,  even  though  many  suggestions  concerning  Rail  Baltica  development  address 
technological advancements (e.g. self-driving trains, geofencing, etc.) which are often 
believed to help transform the railway’s offering, we find that low economies of densities 

November 2018 

52 

 
 
 
  
 
 
Study on the Business Case of the Rail Baltica Project 

which have historically diminished rail’s value proposition in the Region on the one hand 
and an increasing freight flow sensitivity to demand on the other, are the major counter-
acting  forces  that  slow  down  the  development  of  rail.  Resonating  with  the  industry’s 
experts and paraphrasing responses from the market, we may conclude that efforts (i.e. 
conceptual,  technological  and  operational  solutions)  which  would  enable  incremental 
optimization of logistic flows and efficient massification of shipments would receive the 
highest attention from potential end-customers of Rail Baltica.  

November 2018 

53 

 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Task 2: Setting up a Rail Baltica 
Business Network 

54 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

3. Task 2: Setting up a Rail Baltica Business Network 

3.1. Introduction to the Rail Baltica Business Network 
The implementation of the strategy to build the Rail Baltica Business Network (RBBN) is based 
on  active  and  continuous  communication  with  key  stakeholders  in  the  public  and  private 
sectors. The implementation plan, as well as the RBBN strategy, is a close collaboration with 
RB Rail AS in order to achieve necessary support to the progress of the Rail Baltic (RB) project 
and its business concept, as defined by the Rail Baltica organisation.  

The goals of RBBN in a nutshell have been: 

1.  To enrich the field of the Rail Baltica stakeholders - to increase the quality of public 

discussion and overall awareness of the Rail Baltica project.  

2.  To create a cluster of organizations and networks who can in a sophisticated manner 
complement, and counter-balance if necessary, the rhetoric of the governments (which 
often remains ad hoc reactive, sometimes propagandistic or ambivalent). 

3.  Modern  networking  society  needs  a  common  horizontal  language  in  important 
(trans)national  projects  like  Rail  Baltica,  hence  the  aim  of  our  work  has  been  to 
contribute to the Rail Baltica connected rhetoric that enables to create the necessary 
sub-culture  and  create  common  communication  areas  such  as  a  dedicated  website 
(www.rbbn.ee/en)  and  so-called  common  communication  ponds  between  different 
stakeholders and experts. 

4.  To improve the profile and public image of the transport and logistics issues as such 
by creating a communication pond between the stakeholders, experts and businesses 
of different countries so that the Rail Baltica becomes and stays a positive subject to 
discuss as a megaproject potentially reshaping the future of the participating countries 
involved.  

The target audiences of RBBN in the private sector include companies as potential customers 
of  RB,  infrastructure  managers  and  operators  that  are  potential  service  providers  in  the 
transport  and  logistics  system  of  RB.  The  communication  with  the  public  sector  aims  at 
securing  an  active  flow  of  information  about  the  aims  and  progress  of  the  Study  between 
RBBN and Rail Baltica policy- and decision-makers.  

The implementation of RBBN strategy as communication and organizing of events covers all 
target countries: Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. As concerns potential target 
market of the RB service, it is important that the scope of network reaches beyond the project 
area and the EU as far as to Russia, China and Southeast Asia – areas of vast international 
trade  volume  potential  to  Europe.  The  immediate  and  primary  interest  of  the  project  is, 
however, the project area and the EU. 

55 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

3.2. Methodology for RBBN 
Bringing together the business networks of  the five countries that are mostly connected to 
Rail Baltica is essentially important. It is important to map the business cases on the north-
south logistical axis.  

Rail Baltica, as one of the major TEN-T infrastructure projects in the North Sea - Baltic core 
network  corridor,  provides  a  sustainable  solution  for  linking  Finland,  Estonia,  Latvia,  and 
Lithuania with central and southern Europe. The aim of the proactive network building is to 
create  necessary  awareness  among  businesses  and  relevant  stakeholders,  who  could  see 
economic  gain  in  participating  and  obtaining  information  about  the  project  in  its  early 
implementation stage.   

Building a network is a strategic lesson where the accurate targeting plays central role.  In 
that the network building consultants have taken into account the following criteria:  

a.  Different development stage of the project in different countries. 

Poland and Finland still remain observers in the Project, although discussions to include 
them in the Rail Baltica joint venture also as shareholders is continuing.  

b.  Variations in agenda structure. Each of the countries has national special interests 
connected to the project. For instance, in Finland the economic importance of the Rail 
Baltic  as  the  much-needed  land  connection  to  continental  Europe  is  generally 
acknowledged.  At  the  same  time  many  opinion  leaders  immediately  connected  Rail 
Baltica to the Helsinki-Tallinn fixed link (tunnel) issue. In Estonia the environmental 
and  regional  aspects  of  the  project  are  on  the  public  agenda  to  the  highest  degree 
during the last few years. In Poland due to the scale effect, the issue is nationally less 
relevant  as  there  are  many  projects  in  the  field  of  infrastructure  of  similar  scale. 
However, the increased public and business interest towards the matter, e.g. plans of 
PKP PLK railway company to lend EUR 175 million to modernise 100 km of railway of 
the Rail Baltica project are on the way. 

c.  Different  levels  of  political  sensitivity.  In  Lithuania  the  project  has  been 
historically more complex due to the domination by the state-owned incumbent railway 
company. The change of management in the Lithuanian Railways brought along a more 
constructive  attitude  towards  the  Rail  Baltica  Project  in  2016/2017.  In  Latvia  the 
broadly-based  political  decision  of  the  necessity  of  the  new  railway  seemed  to  be 
missing until 2015. In Estonia the issue has politicized aggressively in 2017. With the 
ratification of the international treaty on Rail Baltica in all Baltic parliaments and the 
steady progress of the planning process the Project is again on a firmer track. Finland 
is known for its political and economic consensus about the need to further develop 
the  north-south  transit  and  logistics  routes  but  the  actual  direct  Finnish  financial 
involvement in the RB Project is still to be discussed and decided.  

Besides specific issue structures and message intensiveness, there are relevant differences in 
the way different societies function. This has been taken into consideration while planning the 
building of these social networks.  

56 

 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

For  example,  Estonia  is  more  organized  in  what  concerns  the  Rail  Baltic  stakeholders.  Rail 
Baltica Business Network in Estonia has been active there for more than 4 years now, which 
includes a significant share of local and regional businesses interested in the Rail Baltica.  

Therefore,  Estonia  has  served  as  an  example  to  build  such  a  network  also  in  other  RB 
countries. Based on that experience contacts were established with like-minded entrepreneurs 
in Latvia and Lithuania for the exchange of the know-how in establishing a similar business 
initiative and utilizing the commercial synergies arising out of the largest ever cross-border 
infrastructure project in the Baltic States. As a result of these contacts and initiatives a Rail 
Baltica Business Network was established In Latvia as a NGO in September 2017.  

Naturally, the “Estonian model” will not work everywhere and result in a formation of a more 
formalized network organization right away. Therefore, it was the role of the consultants to 
define the most efficient way to organize a network in a way that it acknowledges the qualities 
of the target country. The potential network frameworks identified were the following:  

a.  Network started by the groups of companies from the bottom up.  

b.  Network built around an existing business networks such as a chambers 
of  commerce,  employers’  umbrella  organizations  or  other  major 
leading national business umbrella organizations.  

c.  Network acting as a subgroup of a major business organisation.  

d.  Network  organized  around  one  of  major  infrastructure  companies, 

such as the incumbent/leading railway companies. 

e.  Network organised by the national ministry or at least in co-operation 

with the member state. 

Each  of  these  options  have  been  considered  and  the  decision  on  the  future  format  of  the 
networking events shall be made on the basis of actual developments and specifics in each of 
the Project country. After all, this decision is in any  case done  from  country to  country by 
local business communities and relevant stakeholders themselves. The consultants have been 
able to share their experience and best practises in coordination and facilitating of creation of 
such networks.  

The  core  of  the  network  activities  is  to  share  information  about  the  Rail  Baltica 
project’s  activities  and  goals.  In  doing  so,  it  has  been  essential  to  utilize  a  continuous 
collaboration and a strategic partnership with the Rail Baltica joint venture - RB Rail AS, the 
applicable member states and national implementing bodies.  

3.3. Event Typology of RBBN 
The typology of events consists of market communication events, transnational events 
and local events and they are described as follows followed by a Graph of the event calendar 
for the duration of the Study: 

Market  communication  events:  Local  and  national  network:  contacts  to  the  local  and 
national  business  community  (potential  users  of  RB  especially  in  import/export  industries, 
logistics  and  terminal  operators)  and  their  umbrella  organisations,  national  interest 
organisations,  policymakers  and  decision  makers.  Market  communication  events  are 

57 

 
 
  
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
    
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

organized in collaboration with RB Rail AS in order to provide an open dialogue between the 
Joint Venture and the potential future customers of RB. 
A  marketing  communication  event  combines  policy-making  and  business  dialogue; 
information dissemination of the RB project to the business sector. 
Viewpoints  from  the  national  decision  makers  and  policymakers  towards  RB  in  its  macro-
regional context; elaboration on development scenarios; role of RB in regional development. 
Linking transport development into a wider picture of economic development (job creation, 
talent attraction, investments). Elaboration on the role of the Eastern BSR in the context of 
the whole EU and global trade. High local media visibility. 

Transnational  events:  contacts  to  the  transnational  business  community  in  the  EU  and 
beyond (potential users of RB especially in import/export industries, logistics operators), EU-
level interest organizations, policy- and decision-makers. Organized in collaboration with the 
CNC  coordinators  and  transnational  projects  e.g.  NSB  CoRe,  Scandria2Act  and  TENTacle 
projects. 
High-level event combines policy-making and business dialogue on the transnational level; 
viewpoints from the decision- and policy-makers towards RB in its macro-regional context. 
Elaboration on development scenarios and transnational transport development. Elaboration 
on the role of the Eastern BSR in the context of the whole EU and global trade. High media 
visibility. 

Local  events:  Local  working  meetings  between  the  Study  and  local  business  community, 
program organized in collaboration with RB Rail AS with a focus on the future RB business 
case. 
Seminars and workshops with active contribution by participants; elaboration on elements of 
cost-effectiveness of the logistics services chosen by the companies. 
Elaboration of potential pilots of multimodal service chains for the RB service (what kind of 
cargo,  from  which  originating  point  to  which  destination,  multimodal  terminals  and logistic 
chains, etc). Targeted social media visibility. 

3.4. Events executed in 2017-2018 

58 

CALENDAR OF EVENTS2018 May  June  July AugSeptOctNovDec Jan FebMarchAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct events planned  events completed FIN8      12    14/154 (2)*4 (2)EE24  2      20   28               29       11  4 (2)6 (2)LV13          29   2                  20       4 (2)4 (2)LT27   9       2612   4 (2)4 (2)POL23   27/27/28 TR and joint MC in Tallinn 4 (2)4 (2)20 (10)22 (10)MC - MARKET COMMUNICATION meeting targeted to the local/national business sector; agenda planned jointly with RB Rail AS (á 3-4 hrs)LC - Local meetings targeted to local/national business sector (á 2 hrs)* Nr of transnational events in brackets TR - TRANSNATIONAL high-level meeting for business sector with policy-makers as key-note speakers; back2back with joint MARKET COMMUNICATION meeting for 5 countries. Collaboration with 2017 22  TR and joint MC in Tallinn  11                    
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

3.5. Events report for 2017/2018 

3.5.1. Local Meetings 

3.5.1.1 Events in Estonia  

 Estonia 1st 

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

Marketing 
Communication 
Event 

May 4th, 2017 

9.30-12.00 at 
the European 
Commission 
representation 
in Tallinn  

The opening 
address of the 
event was 
delivered by 
Herald Ruijters, 
Director of 
Investments Unit 
of the European 
Commission 
Transport 
Directorate (DG-
MOVE).  

“Rail Baltica 1.0– 
Intermodality” 

 35 

Welcome - Tõnis Tamme, 
RBBN Estonia board 
member 

Keynote Introduction – 
Herald Ruijters, DG-MOVE 

North Sea Baltic 
Connector of Regions 
(NSB CoRe ) - Sakari 
Saarinen, Helsinki 
Uusimaa Regional Council  

RB Muuga Multimodal 
Terminal Study - Meelis 
Niinepuu, Civitta Estonia 

Feasibility study of the 
Helsinki-Tallinn fixed link 
- Kari Ruohonen,  
FINEST LINK 

59 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Topic and speakers  No of 

Comments 

participants 

“Ülemiste – a smart city 
district between the 
airport and the Rail 
Baltica Tallinn terminal” 

32 

Andrus Kaldalu,  
board member of Mainor 
Ülemiste City;  

Kristjan Kaunissaare,  
Rail Baltica co-
ordinator at the Estonian 
Ministry of Economy and 
Communications; 

Meelis Niinepuu, 
Civitta Estonia 

Ülemiste is a smart 
city and tech hub, 
strategically located 
between the Tallinn 
Lennart Meri 
International Airport 
and the future Rail 
Baltica passenger 
terminal. 

It was concluded that 
further developments 
of Ülemiste City and 
Rail Baltica are in a 
strong correlation. 

Initial findings of the 
RB Muuga multimodal 
terminal Study were 
presented and 
discussed. 

 Estonia 2nd  

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

November 
2nd, 2017 

Seminar,  

Local Event  

15.00-
17.00 

at the 
Ülemiste 
Smart 
City 

in Tallinn 

 Estonia 3rd  

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

Topic and 
speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

December 
20th, 2017 

13.00-15.30 

Seminar  

Local Event 

“The business potential 
of the North-South 
transport corridors in 
Europe” 

29 

The business case of 
the most profitable 
railway group in 
Europe (Italian 
Railways) was 
presented, incl 

60 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
at the EC 
representation 
in Tallinn  

Giovanni Rocca, 
Vice-President of 
Italian Railways. 

Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

lessons for RB. The 
business potential of 
the North-South 
transport corridors 
was discussed. 

 Estonia 4th 

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

February 
28th, 2018 

Seminar  

Local 
Event 

15.00-
17.00 

at the 
Town Hall 
in Pärnu 

Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

In Pärnu town hall 
we held a meeting 
to discuss the 
business 
opportunities that 
Rail Baltic will 
bring to the 
region. We heard 
opinions and 
expectations of the 
local business 
community 
towards the Rail 
Baltica project.  

Welcome speech, Andres 
Metsoja, Head of City Council of 
Pärnu 

43 

“Introduction of the project and 
actual project status”, Kristjan 
Kaunissaare, Coordinator of Rail 
Baltica project, Ministry of 
Economic affairs and 
Communication 

“Geological and environmental 
issues of Rail Baltica project”, 
Anti Moppel, advisor of Ministry 
of Economic affairs and 
Communication 

“Business opportunities of 
intermodal terminal in Pärnu”, 
Meelis Niinepuu, partner of 
Civitta Estonia 

Round-table discussion on the 
potential location of the RB 
cargo terminal in Pärnu and the 
overall business potential of the 
Rail Baltica for Pärnu area. 

61 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Photo 13: Local meeting at the Pärnu Town Hall in February 2018 

62 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

 Estonia 5th 

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

Topic and speakers 

Comments 

No of 
participa
nts 

May 29th, 
2018 

11.00-13.30 

at AS EVR-
Cargo, 
in Tallinn 

Seminar  

Local 

“Rail Baltica today and tomorrow”, Kadri 
Simson, Estonian Minister of Economic 
Affairs and Communication 

27 

“Rail Baltica major challenges and recent 
news”, Riia Sillave, Rail Baltic Estonia OÜ 

“Look at the project by the main 
coordinator”, Aivar Jaeski, RB Rail AS, 
country manager in Estonia and Finland 

“Main opportunities of the Rail Baltica 
project for the cargo carriers”, Raul 
Toomsalu, General Manager of AS EVR-
Cargo, the leading rail carrier in Estonia. 

“Introduction and preliminary results of 
the European Commission project and 
the stydy MOVE/B1/2017-397”, Meelis 
Niinepuu, Civitta Estonia 

63 

 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Photo 2: Local Meeting in Tallinn at EVR-Cargo in May 2018 

 Estonia 6th 

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

October 
11th, 2018 

Seminar  

“Rail Baltica as an Innovation 
Platform” 

57 

Local 

9:00- 15:00 

at 
Technology 

Opening of the seminar and 
welcome words - Kadri 
Simson, Minister of Economic 
Affairs and Infrastructure 

The main objective of 
the event was to give 
an update on the Rail 
Baltica Global 
Project, the latest 
trends in the railway 
and transportation 

64 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Park 
Tehnopol in 
Tallinn 

Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

sector followed by 
round-table 
discussions – what 
should be done in 
order to make Rail 
Baltica a platform for 
innovation and new 
business models. 

The discussion 
groups were 
moderated by the top 
leaders/specialists of 
transportation and 
accompanying 
sectors – among 
others: Seth 
Lackman (Fujitsu 
Estonia), Toomas 
Uibo (Nordica), 
Tarmo Künnapuu 
(DHL), Claudio 
Richardson (Kühne + 
Nagel), Maarika 
Liivamägi (Estonian 
Hotel and Restaurant 
Association), Pirko 
Konsa (Tallinn 
SUMP), Kaur Piho 
(RB Rail), etc. 

Overview of RB - a platform 
for digitalisation and 
innovation - Kaspars 
Briškens, Business 
Development Manager, RB 
Rail AS 

Railway is Changing – how to 
break the barriers? - Kaur 
Piho, Engineer Railway 
Operations, RB Rail AS 

Future City Around Rail 
Baltica - Margus Nõlvak, 
Ülemiste City 

From Transport to Mobility as 
a Service - Krista Huhtala-
Jenks, Head of Ecosystem & 
Sustainability, MaaS Global 
(Finland) 

Railway as an opportunity for 
last mile freight transport - 
Ansi Arumeel, Member of the 
Board, Omniva 

Groupworks and discussion: 
“What should be done, in 
order to make Rail Baltica 
(more than a railway) a 
platform of innovation and 
build new business models 
upon it”. 

Photo 3: Local Meeting in Tallinn Technology Park Tehnopol in October 2018 

65 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

3.5.1.2 Events in Latvia 

 Latvia 1st 

Date & 
place 

Event format 

Topic and 
speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

The event was attended 
by the representatives 
from various companies 
locally and 
internationally, 
including but not limited 
to Squalio, Thales, 
Alstom, Siemens Oy 
Latvian Branch, Skonto 
Būve, American 
Chamber of Commerce 
in Latvia, FIMA and 
others. Most of the 
attendees occupy a 
position in the 
management of a 
represented company, 
for example, CEO’s, 
Members of the Board, 
Business Development 
Managers. 

The event also served 
as an official 
incorporation meeting 
of the Rail Baltica 
Business Network in 
Latvia as a non-profit 
organisation. 

September 
13th, 2017 

15.00- 
18.30 

at the EU 
house, in 
Riga 

Marketing 
Communication 
Event 

The official launch of the 
Rail Baltica Business 
Network in Latvia. 

22 

Tõnis Tamme,  
Board member of RBBN 
in Estonia; 

Kaspars Rokens,  
COO and Member of the 
Board at RB Rail AS; 

Inna Šteinbuka,  
Head of the European 
Commission 
representation in Latvia; 

Anrī Leimanis,  
Chairman of the Council 
at Rail Baltica Business 
Network in Latvia; 

Vladlens Kovaļevs, 
Member of the Council 
at Rail Baltica Business 
Network in Latvia. 

66 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Photo 4: The official launch of the Rail Baltic Business Network in Latvia 2017 

 Latvia 2nd 

Date & 
place 

Event format 

Topic and speakers  No of 

Comments 

participants 

November 
29th, 2017 

Seminar  

Local Event 

15.00- 
18.30 

At the EU 
house, in 
Riga 

“Riga – Economic 
opportunities brought 
by Rail Baltica” 

19 

Guntars Ruskuls,  
Head of the Strategic 
Planning Unit and 
Deputy Head Strategic 
Management 
Department, Riga City 

67 

Each of the speakers 
delivered their vision 
regarding, how Rail 
Baltica project could 
improve the 
infrastructure of Riga 
and what are the 
possible development 
possibilities, as well as 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

new challenges for 
urban planners. The 
presentations of the 
speakers raised further 
open discussion, which 
involved the attendees, 
among whom were not 
only representatives of 
companies such as 
FIMA, AECOM, but also 
representatives of RB 
Rail and Eiropas 
Dzelzceļa līnijas, FICIL 
building a constructive 
debate, regarding the 
development of the 
city's infrastructure and 
the way how the 
companies could take 
part in this process. 

Council; 

Aigars Kušķis, 
Territorial planner, 
deputy Head of Historic 
Centre Planning Unit, 
City Development 
Department, Riga City 
Council; 

Viesturs Celmiņš,  

Professor, 
Anthropologist working 
with Urban planning and 
Strategic Design; 

Neils Balgalis, 
Urban planner, 
Moderator and Head of 
Urban planning 
company “Grupa 93”. 

 Latvia 3rd 

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

February 
2nd,  
2018 

Seminar-
discussion 

Local 

“The 
space” 
Tech-
hub in 
Riga 

Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

“The Intelligent Transport 
systems, long term trends in 
railway industry, such as 
Internet of Trains, use of 
virtual reality, artificial 
intelligence and robotics”, 
Egidijus Skrodenis Civitta 
Lithuania 

Discussion panel: Kaspars 
Rokens RB Rail, introduced 
the current affairs of the 
project, highlighting the 
possible areas of 
engagement.  

Gunita Kuļikovska, Virtual 
Reality company Vividly, 

68 

13 
Representatives 
of large 
infrastructure 
logistics and 
transport 
companies and 
the start-up 
community  

An open discussion with 
the main topic “Rail 
Baltica - the platform 
for next generation 
technological 
development”.  

The main aim of the 
event was to introduce 
the company 
representatives and 
startup community of 
cooperation possibilities 
using Rail Baltica as a 
platform. The topic 
raised an interesting 
discussion regarding 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
shared her experience on 
working with European 
Railway Lines (EDZL)on 
virtual representation of Riga 
Central station  

Agnese Razgaite, Latvian 
drone company Aerones, 
introduced the variety of 
technical abilities of drones 
and discussed their potential 
use regarding the Rail Baltica 
project.  

Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

startup cooperation 
with large businesses 
who participate in the 
Rail Baltica 
procurements. The 
businesses are looking 
for innovation that 
could be given by the 
startups as an 
outsourced R&D stage, 
also allowing start-ups 
to reduce their risks.  

Photo 5: The discussion at “The space” Tech-hub in Riga 2018 

69 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 Latvia 4th 

Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

The main aim of the 
event was to 
highlight the 
importance of the 
Rail Baltica project 
in the development 
of the Baltic region 
and share the 
common vision of 
the project 
implementation 
introducing the 
possible areas for 
business 
engagement.  

March 20th,  
2018 

16:00-
18:00 

Latvian 
Chamber of 
Commer-ce 
and 
Industry 

19 

Keynote 
presentation, 
discussions, 
Q&A session 
and 
networking 

Local Event 

The main topic “Rail Baltica 
– the key to the Baltic 
economic development” 
featuring the keynote 
speaker European 
Coordinator for the North 
Sea–Baltic core network 
corridor Mrs. Catherine 
Trautmann 

Discussion introduction, 
RBBN Member of the Council 
Vladlens Kovaļevs 

“The latest project updates 
and highlighted the possible 
areas of business 
engagement”, Kristjan 
Piirsalu the Head of 
Procurement in RB Rail 

Insights into the RBBN 
study on the business case 
of the Rail Baltica project, 
Erivinas Škikūnas, Civitta 
Lithuania 

70 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Photo 6: Local meeting at Latvian Chamber of Commerce and Industry 2018 

71 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

3.5.1.3 Events in Lithuania 

Lithuania 1st  

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

Topic and speakers  No of 

Comments 

participants 

Representatives of the 
Lithuanian transport, 
services, logistics and 
industry sector took 
part in the event. 

The seminar served as 
an information briefing 
for the companies 
interested in the 
business potential of 
the Rail Baltica and 
hopefully also as a 
catalyst for the 
creation of the 
respective business 
network in the future. 

October 
27th, 2017 

Marketing 
Communica
tion Event  

“The launch of the Rail 
Baltica Business Network 
in Lithuania” 

21 

15.00- 18.30 

at the 
FinTech 
community 
workspaces 
– Rise, in 
Vilnius 

Jean-Louis Colson, 
European Commission 
representative, Head of 
Unit Transport Networks 
& Directorate general for 
Mobility and Transport;  

Ervinas Skikunas,  
Civitta;  

Meelis Niinepuu, Board 
member of the Rail 
Baltica Business Network 
in Estonia; 

Arenijus Jackus,  
Lithuanian Railway;  

Arturas Vilimas,  
Country Manager for 
Lithuania and Poland & a 
Head of Rail Baltica Rail 
Branch in Lithuania.  

72 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Lithuania 2nd 

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

Topic and 
speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

January 
9th, 2018 

Network 
Discussion, 

13.00-
15.30 

Local 
Event 

at the 
Conference 
Center in 
Kaunas 

Sigitas Baltokas, 
Kaunas Multimodal 
Terminal 

17 

Tadas Stankevičius, 
Kaunas in, Head of 
Business Division 

Arenijus Jackus, 
Director of Railway 
infrastructure LT 
Railways 

Ervinas Skikunas,  
Civitta 

During the second RBBN event, 
were discussed Kaunas region’s 
and the rest of Lithuania’s 
possibilities to exploit the 
infrastructure of Rail Baltica for 
expansion of trade. 

Favourable geographic location, 
multimodal terminal and 
adjacent free trade zone are 
prerequisites for the successful 
development of freight 
transport. What are the 
expectations of the players in 
the sector (exporters, logistics 
companies, public authorities) 
and what needs to be done to 
take advantage of the 
opportunity provided by Rail 
Baltica? 

Lithuania 3rd 

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

April 26th, 
2018 

18.00-
17.00 

Seminar 
and 
problem 
solving 
and round 

“Freight Transportation 
Opportunities and 
Challenges in Rail Baltica 
Context”, Mindaugas 
Butnorius, Head of 

13 

Two-part session:  
Firstly, update for 
businesses on the Rail 
Baltica business case study, 
share preliminary findings, 
introduce key initiatives and 

73 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
at the 
Workland, 
in Vilnius 

table 
discussion 

Business Development, 
Lithuanian Railways 

Local 
event 

“Rail Baltica study: 
preliminary findings and 
insights”, Mindaugas 
Kvašys, Project Manager, 
Civitta 

“Assuring the ‘voice of the 
customer’ in a design and 
conceptualization of Rail 
Baltica”, Sybren Tuinstra, 
Executive Business Coach 

Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

strategic development 
areas of Lithuanian 
Railways Freight 
Directorate;  

Secondly, an interactive 
business coaching session 
aimed at leveraging and 
incorporating RB Study’s  
findings into the further 
design and 
conceptualization of RB 
commercial model. 

Photo 7: Seminar, problem-solving and round-table discussion in Vilnius 2018 

74 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Lithuania 4th 

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments  

September 
12th, 2018 

Network 
Discussion, 

Mindaugas Kvašys, Project 
Manager, Civitta 

 20  

13.00-16.00 

Local Event 

at the 
Conference 
Center in 
Kaunas 

Sharing Rail Baltica Study's 
findings: What do end-
customers signal us 
Kaspars Briškens, Business 
Development Manager, RB 
Rail 

Leveraging voice of the 
market into continuous Rail 
Baltica development 
Ms. Catherine Trautmann, 
European Coordinator for 
the North Sea–Baltic core 
network corridor, Rail 
Baltica 

Rail Baltica’s role in a 
changing transport 
landscape 

Rail Baltica Business 
Case Study findings 
were presented to the 
participants during 
this RBBN event at 
the Kaunas 
conference center.  
Continuous Rail 
Baltica development 
and Rail Baltica‘s role 
in a changing 
transport landscape 
were presented by Ms 
Catherine Trautmann 
and Mr Kaspars 
Briškens.  

The presentations 
were followed by the 
discussion involving 
the participants.  
Participants from 
transport and logistics 
companies have 
shown a greater 
interest in Rail Baltica 
overall, which 
suggests that 
previous events have 
made an impact.  

75 

 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
3.5.1.4 Events in Poland 

Poland 1st 

Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Date & 
place 

November 
23rd, 2017 

13.30-
15.30 

at the 
Hotel 
Sofitel 
Victoria in 
Warszawa 

Event format 

Topic and 
speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

Marketing 
Communication 
Event 

near 180 

“Rail Baltica 
potential for the 
development of 
railway transport 
and business in 
Poland.” 

Jakub Siwiński,  
Policy Officer of 
the European 
Commission (DG 
MOVE); 

Indrek Orav,  
CEO of OÜ Rail 
Baltic Estonia.  

The 7-th Railway Congress in 
Warsaw - Kongres Kolejowy. 
The annual national railway 
event in Poland gathered ca. 
750 participants from the 
institutional and commercial 
railway sectors of Poland. The 
special „Infrastructure” 
session this year was solely 
focused on the topic of Rail 
Baltica. 

The presentations were 
followed by a panel discussion 
on the same subject with: 

Indrek Orav (RB Estonia); 
Arturas Vilimas,  
(RB Rail AS Country Manager 
for Poland); and  

Leszek Hołda,  
board member of PKP 
Energetyka S.A., Polska. 

76 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Photo 8: The 7-th Railway Congress in Warsaw, Rail Baltic Session in 2017 

Poland 2nd 

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

Topic and 
speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

February 
27th, 2018 

Discussion 

Local 
Event 

10.00 – 
13.00 

at the City 
Hall in 
Suwałki 

16 

Moderation: 
Representative 
of Institut 
Innowacyjności 
Polska – Mr Piotr 
Fic 

Attendants: 
Representative 
of European 
Commission Mr 
Jakub Siwiński; 

President of 
Suwałki City, Mr 

77 

The idea to have 3 meetings 
outside of Warsaw in cities along 
Rail Baltica route proved to be 
very necessary. The meetings 
gave a lot of interesting 
information about the attitude and 
expectations of local business and 
governments towards Rail Baltica. 

The main discussions were about 
the location of infrastructure 
allowing easy access of local 
business to Rail Baltica 
(intermodal terminals) in the 
territory where local business is 
created. However, there was a lot 
of discussion about additional 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

railway connections which would 
be important to build/renew in 
order to maximize the effect of 
Rail Baltica. Participants discussed 
not only local infrastructure needs 
but also commented railway 
investments in Lithuania and the 
Belarus area.  

Czesław 
Renkiewicz; 

Representatives 
of City Hall; 

Representatives 
of PKP and PKP 
Energetyka;  

Press;  

Representatives 
of local business 
(transport, major 
companies). 

Poland 3rd 

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

Topic and speakers  No of 

Comments 

participants 

February 
27th,  2018 

15.30- 
17.30 

at the 
Science and 
Technological 
Park in Ełk 

Discussion 

Local Event 

Moderation: 
Representative of 
Instutut Innowacyjności 
Polska – Mr Piotr Fic 

15 

Attendants: 
Representative of 
European Commission 
Mr Jakub Siwiński; 

Vice President of Ełk 
City, Mr Artur Urbański; 

Representatives of City 
Hall; 

Representatives of PKP 
and PKP Energetyka;  

Press; 

Representatives of local 
business (transport, 
major companies). 

78 

Our meetings showed 
that PKP PLK (main 
railway infrastructure 
owner and manager in 
PL) has prepared 
several projects and 
now the RB in PL is 
entering into a more 
realistic phase. The 
information, that 
participants got during 
our meeting confirms 
that. The participants 
with satisfaction 
admitted that „now 
they see that things 
are moving and RB is 
becoming a real 
project in Poland”. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Poland 4th 

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

February 
28th, 2018 

Discussion 

Local Event 

Moderation: Representative 
of Instutut Innowacyjności 
Polska – Mr Piotr Fic 

20 

11.00-
13.30 

at the 
Podlasie 
Voivodship 
in 
Białystok 

Attendants: Representative 
of European Commission Mr 
Jakub Siwiński; 

Poldasie Marshall Office, Mr 
Jerzy Leszczyński; 

Representatives of City Hall 
and Marshall Office; 

Representatives of PKP and 
PKP Energetyka; 

Press; 

Representatives of local 
business (transport, major 
companies). 

IN addition to the 
representatives of the 
local business and 
governments we 
hosted also the 
representatives of EC, 
PKP PLK and PKP 
Energetyka.  

All of them confirmed 
that the meetings 
gave them a lot of 
interesting and 
valuable information.  

All participants 
agreed that 
organizing such 
meetings in the near 
future would be of 
great value for 
planning the 
infrastructure and 
business around Rail 
Baltica. 

79 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Photo 9: Discussion in Białystok, February 2018 

80 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

3.5.1.5 Events in Finland 

Finland 1st 

Date & 
place 

Event format  Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

November 
8th, 2017 

Marketing 
Communication 
Event  

“Luncheon to initiate Rail 
Baltica business network in 
Finland” 

11 

13.00-
15.00 

at the 
Savoy 
Hotel in 
Helsinki 

Finland 2nd 

Malla Paajanen, Ott Lumi 
and Tõnis Tamme on behalf 
of the organisers; 

Catherine Trautmann, 
European Coordinator of 
the North Sea – Baltic core 
network corridor; 

Vera Kissler, DG MOVE; 
Baiba Rubesa, CEO, RB Rail 
AS 

Leading 
representatives of 
the Finnish business 
community, including 
industry 
confederations, 
emphasized the great 
interest in the 
business potential of 
RB for Finland and 
that Rail Baltica will 
potentially create 
social economic 
benefits and 
opportunities to the 
whole Batlic Sea 
region. 

Date & 
place 

Event format 

Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

January 12th, 
2018 

8.30- 
14.30 

Serie of 
Dialogues and 
Meeting 

Local event 

I part: dialogues with the 
Finnish export industry 
and stakeholders on Rail 
Baltica. 

30 

at the 
Confederation 
of Finnish 

Participants:  Henrik 
Hololei, Director General, 
DG MOVE; Jukka Savo, 
Transport coordinator for 
Finland, DG MOVE;  

81 

Helsinki-Uusimaa 
Regional Council 
has taken an 
active role in 
stakeholder  
cooperation and 
dialogue of Rail 
Baltica in Finland 
and 
internationally.  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Industries in 
Helsinki 

Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Confederation of 
Finnish Industries, 
Logistics Council 
has shown interest 
in Rail Baltica from 
the viewpoint of 
the long-term 
development of 
transport routes 
for the Finnish 
exporting industry. 

Sari Artjoki, Head of EC’s 
Representation to Finland  
Kaspars Rokens, Chief 
operating officer, RB Rail  
AS; Ott Lumi, Partner, 
META Advisory  
Andres Kask, Marketing, 
META Advisory; Malla 
Paajanen, Chief adviser, 
Helsinki-Uusimaa 
Regional Council  
Host: Ossi Savolainen, 
Regional Councillor of 
Helsinki-Uusimaa 

Guests: Jari Voutilainen, 
Logistics director of Metsä 
Group; Matti Mannonen, 
Technology Industries 
of Finland; Kimmo Mäki, 
CEO of Finavia.  

II part: Logistics council 
meeting of the 
Confederation of Finnish 
Industries chaired by Jyri 
Häkämies, CEO  

82 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Photo 10: Logistics council meeting of the Confederation of Finnish 
Industries in January 2018 

Finland 3rd  

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

May 14th, 
2018 

Seminar-
discussion 

Local Meeting 

Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

Both events 14th and 15th 
were organized under the 
auspices of TEN-T European 
Coordinator Catherine 

31 

The business 
stakeholder relations 
in Finland should 
continue to strive 

83 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
14.00- 
17.00 

at the 
Helsinki-
Uusimaa 
Regional 
Council in  
Helsinki 

Finland 4th 

Date & 
place 

May 15th, 
2018 

at the 
Finnish 
Technology 
Industries 
in Helsinki 

Trautmann who appeared as 
keynote speaker.  

“Rail Baltica as economic 
driver for cities and regions” 
and signing procedure of 
Rail Baltica Letter of 
Understanding of cities and 
regions along the corridor. 

Participants:  Mrs. Catherine 
Trautmann, Mr. Jussi 
Savolainen, Video greeting 
by Deputy Mayor of City 
of Helsinki, Mrs Sinnemäki; 
Mr. Kaspars Rokens, RB 
Rail; Deputy Mayor of City 
of Tallinn A. Novikov, Malla 
Paajanen with the report of 
Rail Baltica stakeholder 
branding activity of NSB 
CoRe project. 

Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

towards building 
bridge between the 
business sector’s 
participation in the 
project during its 
design and 
construction phases 
and as users (business 
customers) during its 
operation phase.  

The role of Finland as 
a shareholder in Rail 
Baltica joint venture 
(yes/no) remains a 
key question. Without 
shareholder position 
Finland remains both 
formally and mentally 
outside the project, 
which inevitably 
reflects to all its 
stakeholders and the 
business sector as 
well.  

Event format 

Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

Seminar-
discussion 

Local Meeting 

17 

Joint session with 
contributions by FI and 
EE representatives, 
including RBBN project’s 
Estonian partners' 
status update of RB in 
the Estonian business 
life. 

Both events 14th and 
15th of May were 
organized under the 
auspices of TEN-T 
European Coordinator 
Catherine Trautmann 
who appeared as 
keynote speaker.  

84 

The Finnish business 
culture differs 
considerably from the 
Baltic business 
culture(s) and this 
undermines the 
possibilities of Finnish 
companies to involve 
themselves in the 
project. Where 
possible, these gaps 
should be filled. 

The stakeholder 
meetings between the 
Finnish business sector 
and Rail Baltica 
representatives have 

 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Aivar Jaeski as the 
country manager for 
Finland at RB Rail 
represented the joint 
venture. 

The Finnish companies 
presentations and 
expressions on the 
future of transport incl 
RB.  

Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

proven highly useful in 
information 
dissemination and the 
activity should 
continue. However, to 
reach the next level of 
interest among the 
business sector, the 
project needs to ‘start 
digging’, meaning that 
the companies are 
skeptical towards the 
project’s credibility 
until the actual 
construction phase has 
started. 

The next phase the 
business networking 
activities could include 
a search for ‘pioneer 
companies’ that 
commit themselves to 
become test cases of 
Finnish 
exporters/importers 
using Rail Baltica.  

85 

 
 
 
 
 
     
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Photo 11: Seminar-discussion at Finnish Technology Industries in 2018 

In addition, for the purposes of setting up a wider strategic environment for the Rail Baltica 
discussions in Finland and better organisation of the planned RBBN events, several additional 
meetings with the stakeholders have been held, also in co-operation with other projects of 
NSB CoRe: 

Date & 
place 

August 17th, 
2017 

13.00-15.00 

Hotel Sokos 
in Helsinki  

Event format  Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

Local Event 

“Progress of logistics 
service chain along Rail 
Baltica: findings in 
Finland” 

10 

Malla Paajanen on 
behalf of the RBBN 
project; 

86 

A joint seminar of the 
RBBN and NSB CoRe 
projects; 

Stakeholders 
represented Finnish 
logistics operators 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

and exporting 
companies. 

Sakari Saarinen, project 
manager of NSB CoRe; 

Jorma Härkönen, 
Director of LIMOWA 
logistics cluster as WP2 
leader of NSB CoRe. 

Date & 
place 

November 
15th, 2017 

8.30-9.15 

VR HQ, 
Helsinki  

Date & 
place 

November 
15th, 2017 

9.30-10.15 

Chamber of 
Commerce, 
Helsinki  

Event format  Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

Local Event 

“International 
accessibility of Finland” 

5 

Rolf Jansson, CEO and 
President of VR 

Malla Paajanen on 
behalf of the RBBN 
project 

Kari Ruohonen, project 
director of FinEst Link 

By invitation of VR, the 
public railway 
infrastructure manager 
in Finland, joint 
meeting of the RBBN 
and FinEst Link 
projects. 

Event format  Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

Local Event 

“International 
accessibility of Finland” 

20 

Malla Paajanen on 
behalf of the RBBN 
project 

Kari Ruohonen, project 
director of FinEst Link 

By invitation of the 
Finnish Chamber of 
Commerce, a joint 
meeting of the RBBN 
and FinEst Link 
projects.  

Members of the 
Logistics Council of 
Chamber of Commerce 
participating. 

Date & 
place 

Event format  Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

December 
11th, 2017 

Local Event 

“International 
accessibility of Finland” 

4 

By invitation of UPM, 
the leading Finnish 
paper production 

87 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

group, a joint meeting 
of RBBN project and 
FinEst Link project. 

15.00-16.30 

UPM offices, 
Helsinki  

Jukka Hölsä, Director of 
Maritime and Port 
network and Lauri 
Rikala, Director of 
European Shipping of 
UPM 

Malla Paajanen on 
behalf of the RBBN 
project; 

Kari Ruohonen, project 
director of FinEst Link. 

88 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
3.5.2. Transnational Meetings 

1st 

Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

Topic and speakers 

No of 
participants 

Comments 

September 
22nd, 2017 

Transnational 
Event 

9.30-12.00 

Nordea 
Concert hall/ 
Artis Cinema 
in Tallinn, 
Estonia 

Part of the 
official 
program of 
Connecting 
Europe 
Conference 

Part of the official 
program of 
Connecting Europe 
Conference in Tallinn 
organised by the 
European Commission 
(DG-MOVE). 

Among other 
important questions 
related to the mega-
project the 
commercial aspects of 
the future railway 
were discussed. One 
of the main questions 
for panelists was: 
"Where is the business 
in Rail Baltica?" 

The high-level debate 
“Rail Baltica – Future 
Railway for Business”  

150+ 

Henrik Hololei,  
Director-General of the 
European Commission’s 
Directorate-General for 
Mobility and Transport;  

Claudio Richardson, 
Managing Director of 
KÜHNE + NAGEL 
Estonia;  

Siim Kallas, 
Former Vice President of 
the European 
Commission for 
Transport;  

Baiba Rubesa  
Managing Director of RB 
Rail AS; 

Alberto Cozzi,  
Head of Special Projects 
at Trieste Port;  

Håkan Fagerström, Head 
of Cargo at Tallink Grupp 

89 

 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Photos 12-13: RBBN public debate as part of the official program of the Connecting 
Europe Conference 2017 in Tallinn

90 

 
 
  
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

2nd 

Date & 
place 

Event 
format 

Topic and speakers 

April 11th, 
2018 

Transnational 
Event  

8.15-9.30 

Swissotel 
Conference 
Hall in 
Estonia, 
Tallinn 

Rail Baltica 
Global Forum 
2018  

2nd day Panel 
Discussion  

“Rail Baltica - professional 
workforce needs" Organized 
in partnership with the RB 
Rail. 

Preface: “Study on the 
business case of the Rail 
Baltic Project. The summary 
of main expectations of the 
business sector to Rail 
Baltica”, Mr Ervinas 
Śkikunas, CIVITTA Lithuania. 

Panel discussion 
participants:  

Mr Ervinas Śkikunas, 
CIVITTA Lithuania. 

Mr. Andres Trink, Chairman 
of the Management Board, 
Merko Ehitus AS 

Mr. Toomas Tamsar, 
Chairman of the 
Management Board, 
Estonian Employers` 
Confederation  

Mr. Kaspars Rokens, COO 
and Member of Management 
Board, RB Rail AS  

Ms. Baiba Fromane, Head of 
the Partnership, Latvian 
Construction Entrepreneur  

Moderator of the panel: Mr. 
Andreas Kaju, Meta Advisory  

Comments 

No of 
particip
ants 

near 300  The panel 

discussion focused 
mainly around the 
3 main topics: 

a. overall situation 
and outlook of the 
Baltic labour 
market + foreseen 
workforce 
requirements 
related to the RB-
project in its 
construction (and 
operational) 
phase;  

b. capabilities and 
challenges of the 
Baltic construction 
sector to service 
the RB-project;  

c. Measures and 
opportunities to 
tackle the 
problems under a. 
and b. above + 
the influence of 
RB to the 
workforce mobility 
and business 
environment of 
the Baltic States 
in general.  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
Final Study Report 
Call for Tenders No MOVE/B1/2017-397 

Photos 14-15: Rail Baltica Global Forum 2018,  
Rail Baltica Business Network panel discussion 

END OF REPORT 

92 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
HOW TO OBTAIN EU PUBLICATIONS 

Free publications: 

•  one copy: 

via EU Bookshop (http://bookshop.europa.eu); 

•  more than one copy or posters/maps: 

from the European Union’s representations (http://ec.europa.eu/represent_en.htm);  
from the delegations in non-EU countries 
(http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/index_en.htm);  
by contacting the Europe Direct service (http://europa.eu/europedirect/index_en.htm) 
or calling 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (freephone number from anywhere in the EU) (*). 

(*)  The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels may 
charge you). 

Priced publications: 

•  via EU Bookshop (http://bookshop.europa.eu). 

Priced subscriptions: 

•  via one of the sales agents of the Publications Office of the European Union 

(http://publications.europa.eu/others/agents/index_en.htm). 

 
 
 
 
M
I
-
0
1
-
1
9
-
0
7
7
-
E
N
-
N

ISBN : 978-92-79-99560-6 

    doi: 10.2832/81582