Towards a more diverse food supply system, targeted scenario n°18 : glimpses of the future from the BOHEMIA study.
Date: 2018-06-18
Institutions: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation
Subjects: alternative agricultural production, environmental impact, food industry, food production, food shortage, food systems, genetically modified organism, supply and demand, sustainable agriculture, sustainable development

Foresight 

Towards a  
More Diverse Food 
Supply System  

Targeted scenario N°18 

Glimpses of the future  

from the BOHEMIA study  

[ 

EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Towards a More Diverse Food Supply System - Targeted scenario N°18 

European Commission 
Directorate-General for Research and Innovation 
Directorate A  Policy Development and Coordination 
Unit A.3  Horizon 2020 Policy and Foresight  
Contact   Nikolaos Kastrinos 
E-mail   nikolaos.kastrinos@ec.europa.eu  

RTD-PUBLICATIONS@ec.europa.eu 

European Commission 
B-1049 Brussels 

Manuscript completed in March 2018 

This  document  has  been  prepared  for  the  European  Commission  however  it  reflects  the  views  only  of  the  authors,  and  the 
Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. 

More information on the European Union is available on the internet (http://europa.eu). 

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2018 

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EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Towards a  

More Diverse Food  

Supply System  

Targeted scenario N°18 

Glimpses of the future  

from the BOHEMIA study   

2018 

Directorate-General for Research and Innovation 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
About BOHEMIA 

BOHEMIA is a foresight study (contract N° Contract PP-03021-2015) designed specifically to support 
the preparation of the next framework programme. 

The  study  put  forward  policy  recommendations  for  the  next  framework  programme,  based  on  a 
foresight processes involving scenario development, a Delphi survey and an online consultation.  

As  part  of  its  recommendations,  the  study  identified  19  likely  future  scenarios  with  disruptive 
implications and associated priority directions for EU research and innovation. 

The full range of the results of the study is available at https://ec.europa.eu/research/foresight 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Targeted scenario N° 18 
Towards a More Diverse Food Supply System 

Summary 

Major efforts during the 2020s succeed in making our food supply systems more sustainable, secure, 
efficient,  healthy  and  inclusive.  Still  in  view  of  a  growing  world  population  and  environmental 
pressures on land and water, these efforts are not sufficient. A second pillar of food supply, based on 
a range of novel types of food production methods, complements the prevailing food supply system 
in the course of the 2030s. 

UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) most relevant to this scenario: 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
   
 
 
 
 
 
   
   
 
 
 
The scenario 

It  is  2040.  Sustainable  agriculture  provides  the  main  foundation  of  our  food  supply  system.  The 
increase  in  human  population,  the  battle  against  climate  change,  progressive  but  significant  soil 
erosion,  and  claims  to  make  healthy  diets  accessible  to  all  spurred  significant  changes.  There  has 
been  a  substantial  reduction  of  meat  consumption.  Emphasis  in  less  intensive  farming,  in 
regenerative  agriculture  and  in  supporting  eco-systems,  required  investments,  adjustments  to 
policies and continuous efforts to reduce waste.  

A  range  of  alternative  food  production  and  supply  chains  have  emerged.  These  started  as  niche 
applications for inner city specialised markets. As food prices rose and technology matured, they are 
becoming  a  visible  part  of  the  food  supply  chain.  A  more  diversified  system  of  food  supply  is 
emerging.  

While by 2030 mild forms of alternative food production had become quite common (e.g. urban and 
peri-urban  farming,  soilless  farming,  aquaculture),  non-conventional  (e.g.  alternative  sources  of 
protein)  and  even  artificial  food  products  were  introduced  slowly  and  step-by-step  into  the  food 
supply  chain.  Around  2030,  following  a  great  deal  of  controversy  and  considerable  regulatory 
scrutiny, synthetically designed bacteria were licensed for use in food production in the EU (to grow 
food in urban bioreactors and micro-fermenters). The use of artificial nutritional additives was quite 
common in the early 2030s, but advanced artificial food products (e.g. 3D  printed food or artificial 
meat) keep meeting consumer resistance. It took quite some time until they became accepted and 
economically viable in the course of the subsequent decade.  

The advantages of this more diversified approach are that the supply of healthy and secure food for 
all  can  be  better  ensured,  the  sustainable  use  of  agricultural  land  achieved,  and  food  prices  kept 
under control.  

Relevance for Europe 

Current  food-related  strategies  for  2030  aim  to  address  and  reconcile  multiple  goals,  including 
security  and  quality  of  food  supply  for  a  growing  world  population,  environmental  protection  to 
employment  creation  and  empowerment  of  communities  (EC  2012,  2015).  The  principles  guiding 
policy  (e.g. food first, sustainable yields, cascading  approach, circularity and diversity) are the right 
way ahead and will help improve the food challenges faced today, but they will not be sufficient to 
resolve our food-related challenges beyond 2040.  

The anticipated shift towards a more diversified food supply systems represents an opportunity for 
Europe’s food and drink industry. It is  – still - one of the biggest manufacturing sectors in terms of 
jobs and value added, but its competitive position was lagging behind that of comparable economies, 
despite a positive external trade balance. Europe can position itself as world leader for the supply of 
high-quality,  safe  and  sustainable  food  products,  both  of  traditional  and  novel  origin,  backed  by  a 
globally recognised quality assurance and regulatory system that is trusted by citizens. The advanced 
artificial food industry can bridge the space between food and medicine by exploiting latest advances 
in life sciences, nutritional science and process technology.  

Contribution towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 

The growing pressure on the demand-side (e.g. global growth in demand for meat, competing forms 
of using space) and climate change will enhance challenges in the future, leading to price increases 
for food, from which the poorest will suffer most (FCEC 2013). From a global perspective, it will be 
essential to recognise the limits of current strategies and move towards a more diverse system of 
food supply, which includes a pillar based on alternative supplies and novel food products, in order 
to be able to meet a range of Sustainable Development Goals, in particular (2) Zero Hunger, (13) 
Climate Action, and (15) Life on Land at a time horizon beyond 2040. 

 
 
 
 
Implications for EU policy 

Reduction of meat consumption, reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with agriculture and 
reducing food waste require major interventions by EU agricultural, environmental and health 
policies.  

The development of alternative and novel food supply chains and associated industries needs to be 
in line with the principles of sustainability and requires new types of trusted health and safety 
standards and regulation. This is complemented by agricultural policy initiatives to maintain and 
further enhance the sustainability of mainstream agriculture. Internal market and competition policy 
are critical / breaking into distribution channels is a challenge. Circular economy and reduction in 
food waste is also a relevant challenge 

Future Directions for EU R&I policy recommended by the public consultation 

  Understanding and managing systems of sustainable agriculture and aquaculture 
  Alternative sources of protein: exploitation and processing 
  Environmental impact assessment of agricultural practices 
  Healthy and sustainable diets 
  Organisational and  social  innovations  for optimising  food  supply  systems from farming 

 

to consumption 
Improvement  of  farm  and  food  system  management  through  better  informed  agro-
ecological practices  

  Advancement  of  genetic  engineering  technologies  applied  to  plants,  animals  and 

microbes 
Integrated social experimentation with novel foods (involving citizens) 

 
  Precision agriculture and breeding: from research to demonstration 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Annex:  Relevant Data from the Delphi Survey 

The Delphi survey of the BOHEMIA study asked experts about the time of realization of 143 
statements about the future, and about the relevance of Research and Innovation for that 
realization, or about the relevance of the realization for Research and Innovation policy. The 
experts were asked to justify their judgements with arguments. The whole data set has been 
published and can be found at: https://ec.europa.eu/research/foresight 

This annex includes the parts of the data set that are relevant to this scenario.   

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soilless farming has led to a 30% increase in the EU’s food production capacity compared 
to 2016 

Number of respondents: 

54 

Arguments for time of realization 

Soilless farming is an interesting option for horticulture and protein alternatives (high-value products), 
not for staples. 

Soilless farming depends on high capital investment. Farmers (except for some high-value products) are 
unlikely to be willing to incur such a financial risk. 

Soilless farming that is not more demanding than usual farming on other scarce resources (e.g. water or 
energy) needs time to be developed. 

Urban farming will increase, and the best way to do this is by soilless farming 

Soil salination and other soil problems will increase, and the reduction in areable land means we need to 
develop alternatives. 

'Soilless'  farming  does  not  alter  the  basic  plant  physiological  challenge  of  capturing  carbon  through 
photosynthesis, which determines the generation of the majority of food calories.  

Soilless farming is no sustainable alternative, at most a small complement 

At present, throughout the world, over 80% of the land that is suitable for raising crops is in use. 

"Food  from  laboratories"  are  not  in  high  demand  by  consumers.  They  prefer  food  from  (idyllic  / 
idealized) farms. 

Vertical farming in smart buildings can provide food crops while contributing to air quality in buildings 
and activities / work for urban dwellers. 

Soilless  farming  is  nonsense,  it  cannot  be  more  efficient  than  soil.  We  must  rather  use  soil  more 
efficiently. 

With increasing desertification and competition for land (housing, infrastructure, etc.) new alternatives 
to soil are required. 

No. of 
votes 

40 

16 

13 

12 

8 

8 

8 

7 

7 

4 

3 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

3.91 

Dispersion: 

1.22 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

Research is needed for soilless farming that is not as demanding on scarce resources (e.g. water or 
energy) as usual farming. 

Technologies are needed to make use of any available land and agricultural area to feed the growing 
populations - even if we in Europe cannot imagine it currently. 

Research  needs  to  search  for  new  methods  apart  from  traditional  farming  practices  to  maintain 
farmers' livelihoods. 

Impact  of  climate  change,  more  storms,  is  likely  to  favor  enclosed  agriculture  and  soilless  farming 
that can grow crops with optimal nutrients and pest control year round. 

Self-managing ecosystems that produce crops with minimal energy and pest control inputs need to 
be explored in soilless farming as well as farming in soil. 

Precision farming has a great future in soilless farming. Also pesticide control will be easier 

No. of 
votes 

34 

22 

15 

7 

7 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Perennial crops (which are alive year-round and harvested multiple times before dying) 
make up 30% of Europeans' calorie intake from all crops (today they make up 15% at 
global level) 

Number of respondents: 

45 

Arguments for time of realization 

Perennial crops require less intensive farming practices and less energy to grow than traditional biofuel 
crops. They also reduce the probability of earth erosion. 

Today,  annual  crops  account  for  roughly  85%  of  the  human  population’s  food  calories  and  the  vast 
majority of planted croplands worldwide. (Landinstitute) 

Europeans are becoming more health-conscious and thus reduce the calorie intake from meat. This shift 
also affects the calorie-intake from all crops. 

Perennial types of the current annual food crops such as wheat could be developed leading to a dramatic 
increase in food production from perennials. 

Crop rotation seems more relevant than perennial crops. 

A more diverse selection of crops to grow (and grown in an area) will reduce losses due to plant diseases 
and pests. Therefore a combination of annual and perennial crops is beneficial. 

Polycultures are more sustainable, have greater CO2 uptake and can offer pest resistance and multiple 
crops. Research is needed to develop such systems, including means to harvest. 

Perennial crops are supporting a sustainable and climate change adapted food resilience. 

Smart  monitoring  strategies  and  processing  can  deliver  increased  productivity  while  also  minimising 
waste within the production systems and waste out of the supply chain. 

Less chemical residue ends up in the soil and less CO2 is produced. 

Farmers would be less dependent on big companies which create dependencies by selling annual plants.  

Extensive production results in lower income. 

No. of 
votes 

31 

12 

10 

9 

8 

8 

5 

3 

3 

3 

3 

2 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

3.72 

Dispersion: 

1.06 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

There should be intensive research on technology allowing perennial crops to be grown and harvested. 
As those perennial crops have little appeal to today's agribusiness big companies like Bayer/ Monsanto, 
there won't be much research from this side.  

Genetic development is needed for perennials to compete with the output of annual crops. 

The  agriculture  market  is  dominated  by  US  companies,  which  have  no  interest  in  diminishing  their 
returns with perennial crops. So this is primarily a policy challenge. 

It  would  take  a  monetary  commitment  comparable  to  what  the  EU  is  now  putting  into  developing 
biofuel crops. 

Advanced digital technologies encompassing nanotechnologies, smart sensors and information systems 
will be needed to attain the aspired intensification. 

The  development  of  perennial  crops  are  not  related  to  any  existing  business:  it  is  a  novel  area  for 
research, supporting future food resilience for feeding a world with a growing population. 

No. of 
votes 

31 

17 

11 

8 

6 

4 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
20 % of the area in EU cities with at least 50 000 inhabitants is used for urban and peri-
urban farming 

Number of respondents: 

53 

Arguments for time of realization 

Urban and periurban gardening can contribute to more food security worldwide, as studies prove. 

There  are too  many  competing  uses for  space  in  EU  cities  (many  of  these uses will  be  seen  as  more 
'important' than farming/gardening) 

Urban and periurban gardening contribute to a sustainable, post-fossil society. 

Horticulture and greenhouses are already typically located in peri-urban regions, and the trend may be 
enhanced by local food movement and soilless farming. 

Proper calculations are needed: even though large areas of a city are used for gardening, a very tiny 
part of the protein and energy needs of the population can be fulfilled due to population density. 

Significant  formerly  industrial  properties  will  be  converted  to  urban  gardening  by  part-time  farmers 
leasing the land from local jurisdictions or as members of gardening associations. 

The area of cities is not defined - peri-urban farming is not in the city, it is near it. 

Urban  farming  could  nicely  be  integrated  within  flats  and  skyscrapers,  and  even  combined  with 
hydrophonics. 

Farming/gardening  in  cities  will  occupy  green  space  for  private  purposes  that  otherwise  would  have 
been accessible to all citizens. 

Urban  farming  can  be  used  as  an  educational  concept  for  citizens  in  order  to  connect  them  to  the 
issues of agriculture and food production. 

No. of 
votes 

29 

25 

24 

16 

9 

3 

3 

3 

2 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

3.22 

Dispersion: 

1.30 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

Policies for the Circular Economy for using empty buildings and spaces for urban and periurban gardening 
are needed. 

part of trend is high tech and part low tech and part of socio-cultural trend 

A more inclusive strategy for achieving sustainability is needed, going beyond a narrow focus on agriculture 
and poverty reduction. 

Smart combinations of already existing technologies needed, more development and maturation than pure 
"R&I" 

More important to channel R&I towards sustainable production systems on the countryside. 

Research  needed  on  how  urban  farming  contributes  to  less  transport  and  higher  availability  of  freshly 
harvested food in urban areas. 

Gardening is a physical activity with a social component that can make a positive contribution to health of 
communities, teach young people sustainability and local self-reliance. 

Land use planning, policies to develop urban food value chains and urban food procurement (for schools 
for ex) are needed. 

No. of 
votes 

32 

26 

19 

9 

6 

2 

2 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Synthetically designed bacteria are licensed for use in food production in the EU (to grow 
food in urban bioreactors or micro-fermenters) 

Number of respondents: 

42 

Arguments for time of realization 

The use of "Designer organisms" in food production will face unprecedented opposition (for example, 
despite definitive evidence available for a while, GMOs are still not free of such opposition).  

Particularly for a specific food component, additives. 

The state of affairs in the statement will probably be true of sewage treatment and similar uses, but 
not of food. 

Due to increased need for food, the opinions on GMO will change. 

Synthetic  biology  can  potentially  produce  fuels,  nutrients  for  growing  food,  food  additives, 
pharmaceuticals and specialty chemicals, but mass production of food end products faces barriers. 

So far, the only available synthetic bacterium does nothing more than live and replicate - and even that 
only after years of trial and error attempts.  

Dangers  of  rapid  bacterial  evolution  creating  unprecedented  threats  require  extensive,  systemic 
research. 

Synthetic  biology  is  likely  to  be  required  to  produce  the  variety  of  foods  required  for  long  duration 
space missions with no re-supply from Earth. Such technology may transfer to Earth use. 

No. of 
votes 

30 

17 

10 

9 

5 

4 

2 

2 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

3.95 

Dispersion: 

0.96 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

Impact on health will probably be the main field of research. 

A lot remains unknown about the role of specific genes in bacteria.  

Fairly dependent on societal acceptance 

it is a niche for special foods eg to deal with allergies 

Niche for designing special growth environments. 

Space applications have the greatest near term demand for such technology. 

Ecological  engineering  may  widen  use  of  such  products  but  complex  systems  will  need  to  be  modelled. 
Insufficient to just produce the organism that can produce then outputs. 

Required for long duration space missions may transfer to Earth use to fully realize recycling.  

No. of 
votes 

30 

17 

14 

11 

2 

1 

1 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Healthy and sustainably managed oceans provide 30% of the animal protein worldwide 
(16% in 2016) 

Number of respondents: 

37 

Arguments for time of realization 

We are far from healthy and sustainably managed oceans - this will take time. 

Oceans, if protected and well managed, have tremendous potential to feed humanity. 

The erosion of coastal areas because of more storms and higher sea level will rather lead to a decrease in 
food supply from the oceans and coastal areas. 

As fishing is in decline, this needs a lot of effort for providing enough food especially in small island states. 

Systematic ocean-based farming required to achieve such goals.  Surface area exposed to sunlight exists 
with ample nutrients.  Technology needs to be developed for ocean farming. 

30% will not be sufficient.  We will have to become almost vegetarian. 

No. of 
votes 

33 

23 

9 

9 

7 

2 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average: 

3.94 

Dispersion: 

1.19 

Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy 

Global diplomacy and also science diplomacy are needed for the protection of the oceans.  

Boost for ocean research and mapping must be part of the R&I policy. 

The  potential of  a  sustainable  aquaculture,  notably  offshore and  in coastal  brackishwater,  is  high 
but needs more R&D&I to improve food security 

Need to seriously address the problem of micro plastic in the oceans. More research is needed on 
that (including on strategies that lead less plastic waste) 

Technologies need to be developed for ocean farming with floating farms combining plants such as 
water hyacinths with fish and other water life forms in self-sustaining systems. 

Protecting the oceans is the only way. 

Ocean  preserves  need  to  be  developed  analogous  to  preserves  on  land  to  maintain  biodiversity.  
Ocean  preserves  may  require  protection  measures/technologies  not  only  against  poaching  and 
pollution. 

Research is needed to identify and breed lifeforms that can adapt to more acidic oceans and that 
can utilize carbonic acid. 

No. of 
votes 

28 

18 

8 

6 

6 

4 

2 

1 

More than 20% of all meat consumed in the EU is 3D printed or lab-grown 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  
Number of respondents: 

58 

Arguments for time of realization 

There is no real demand. 

We  love  to  see  what  is  technically  feasible,  and  it  might  be  'fun'  to  eat  (like  an  exotic  fruit),  but  for 
everyday consumption, people prefer the diversity, nuance and complexity of 'real' food.  

There  are  several  fears  associated  with  the  use  of  such  technology,  including  growth-promoting 
anabolic agents and genetically modified organisms. 

Acceptance will be an issue. 

This  will  be  technically  feasible,  soon:  People  can  now  make  meat  in  their  own  homes  due  to  a 
conceptual prototype for a countertop 3D printer. 

Dutch scientists are working on bringing the first completely lab-grown meat products to the market by 
the year 2020. 

Why use 3D printing if you can have the real stuff? 

Fast food printers "baking" from paste tubes (made of algae and bugs and with variety of tastes and 
textures) is quite feasible. 

If  the  need  for  food  is  high enough  because  of  population  size,  and  if  the  supply  of  real  meat  is  not 
sufficient, and too expensive, demand will increase 

Great solution for long duration space missions. Early adopters from tech oriented people thinkable on 
Earth. 

Solution to create large variety of foods with different taste, texture and appearance without reliance 
on global sources where spoilage is huge cost. 

Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

No. of 
votes 

39 

22 

17 

12 

11 

7 

6 

4 

4 

1 

1 

Average: 

3.68 

Dispersion: 

1.56 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

Soft  food  with  specific  and  sustainable  nutrients  for  people  with  different  diseases  will  require  new 
regulations. 

Research needs to find a way to develop lab-grown meat at affordable cost.  

Life-cycle analyses needs to show the advantages before large scale production can be interesting. 

No. of 
votes 

26 

19 

10 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cooperation between researchers and chefs is needed to develop tasty "printing paste" 

Offers a pathway to food as medicine to enable consumption of specific nutrients to stay healthy precisely 
printed in the food with no spoilage. 

Great advantage for long duration space missions. 

8 

3 

2 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Artificial photosynthesis is applied to produce food for the first time 

Number of respondents: 

41 

Arguments for time of realization 

Most of the scientific (and financial) effort in artificial photosynthesis will be directed to fuel production 
rather than directly to food production. 

A nice challenge for scientists who want to see what is possible. So yes, they will produce food for the 
first time, in the lab. It will lead to some publications and sci-fi, but not reach markets. 

Introduction of new technologies into agriculture will be subject to a lot of lobbying. 

Artificial  photosynthesis  may  be  a  better  alternative  than  carbon  sequestration  for  CO2  from  power 
plants to produce inputs to food production. 

Introduction of new technologies into agriculture will be subject to a lot of scare-mongering. 

Important technology for long duration space flight. 

Scientists with the US Department of Energy and UC Berkley made a breakthrough in 2015 by creating 
a system that synthesizes carbon dioxide and water into acetate. 

No. of 
votes 

30 

23 

10 

3 

3 

1 

1 

 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

3.76 

Dispersion: 

1.76 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

It  is  a  scientific  challenge  (and  might  be  used  in  space  missions).  But  we  have  enough  natural 
photosynthesis to produce food. So why spend scarce research money on this? 

Artificial photosynthesis could turn out as a key technology with many yet unforeseen applications 

Genetic  engineering  research  on  cyanobacteria  should  continue  to  focus  on 
photosynthetic efficiency.  

increasing  their 

We need studies on the safety of lab-to-field transfer of cyanobacteria-based technologies. 

Necessary for long duration space missions whose development can be transferred to Earth use. 

No. of 
votes 

27 

20 

9 

4 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Meat consumption in the EU has been reduced to half the 2016 figure 

Number of respondents: 

61 

Arguments for time of realization 

More people are turning vegetarian (not vegan) because there are too many food scandals, and due 
to raising awareness of the negative health impact of too high meat consumption. 

A  50%  reduction  at  the  population  level  does  not  require  veganism  and  all  its  constraints  -  it  only 
requires moderation and alignment to current public health guidelines. 

The social movement for animals' rights is increasing. 

More people are turning to a vegan diet because of contamination scandals and concerns about the 
effect of agriculture on climate change. 

Cost of meat production will reduce consumption. 

Large  studies  in  England  and  Germany  have  shown  that  vegetarians  are  about  40%  less  likely  to 
develop cancer compared to meat-eaters. 

Health problems that are developed because of absence of meat in diet will become evident within 
20-30 years (aging vegans and their children). Real cost and impact of food supplements is calculated. 

Artificial meat will become available before meat consumption reduces to this level. 

Only in some countries is there indeed a slow decreasing trend. 

How much of this decline is due to the decreased EU population? 

No. of 
votes 

27 

25 

20 

17 

16 

8 

5 

5 

4 

1 

 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

2.85 

Dispersion: 

1.47 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

It is less an issue of R&I than of policy and awareness raising. 

develop  options  to  change  consumer  preferences  for  meat:  decreasing  meat  consumption  is  a  major 
measure to create a less resource demanding food system, while people in the EU overconsume animal 
protein 

Sustainability and ethical production is to be considered for both, meat and plant based foods (rethinking 
current intensive animal farming, and deforestation for palm oil production) 

There is a market opportunity for meat substitutes, so all we need is the R&I to make them convincing 
enough (tasty, accessible etc.) to buyers. 

Long-term  impact  of  vegetarian  (and  vegan)  diet  should  be  studied  to  show  if  there  is  "only"  positive 
effects as we think today. It is not only a question of number of calories. 

The worldwide demand for animal products will unfortunately increase with 75 % by 2050 and the use of 
animal products of European consumers has no big effect on this.  

Science may find solutions to the pollution generated by manure, and render meat consumption less of 
an issue. 

social sciences, such as behavioural, social psychological studies are needed 

More research is needed on producing in vitro meat. 

No. of 
votes 

36 

28 

21 

16 

8 

6 

4 

2 

2 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Food waste in the EU has been reduced from 88 million tons (annually, data from 2013) to 
10 million tons 

Number of respondents: 

59 

Arguments for time of realization 

It appeals to the average consumer and supermarkes take the lead. 

The increasingly scarce natural resources and rising food prices will make it economically viable to invest 
in byproduct usage and the avoidance of food waste. 

Food waste in the EU costs an estimated 143 billion Euros ($153 billion) per year, which could feed the 
55 million people living in food poverty in Europe more than nine times over. 

The  production  and  disposal  of  EU  food  waste  leads  to  the  emission  of  170  million  tonnes  of  carbon 
dioxide, which accelerates global climate change. 

This reduction is far too ambitious, reducing food waste by 50% would already be a huge achievement. 

There is a definition issue here: what is food waste. In former times there was little or no food 'waste' 
even though quite a lot of the food purchased was not eaten by the people purchasing it. 

It is time to also sell the fruit and vegetables that is larger, smaller or differently shaped in supermarkets, 
and not have the growers throw this away. 

Africa and Asia have food waste in the first part of the food chain, which might give a chance to added 
value of co- and by-products. 

The cost of food waste is an argument for local production and local synthesis of food. 

This reduction is too expensive and is not economically reasonable. 

Plant Breeding for vegetables with longer shelf life could reduce food waste. 

Plants with better disease resistance can reduce pre-harvest losses and with that avoid waste. 

No. of 
votes 

32 

26 

22 

10 

9 

5 

5 

3 

1 

1 

1 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

3.75 

Dispersion: 

1.54 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

The EU target is set to halve per capita food waste at the retail and consumer level by 2030 - this needs 
to be made possible by research though. 

Cheap food means there is a reduced penalty for waste. The more it costs the less likely you are to waste 
it.  

Research into valorisation of food waste can be a key driver here 

More research on the connection between food waste and climate change is necessary. 

Investment in new digital technologies such as smart monitoring strategies and processing of byproducts 
is needed to take out waste from the supply chain. 

we need to develop more ways of using odd-shaped vegetables 

We need to reassess and better understand what happens and can happen to food that is not eaten. 

Innovative logistics to reduce food waste must be tailored to optimize the current logistics. 

Technologies  and  methods  to  eliminate  food  waste  are necessary  in  long  duration  space  missions and 
can be transferred to Earth use. 

Investments in plant science and new technologies for plant breeding are needed 

No. of 
votes 

36 

20 

17 

9 

6 

5 

4 

3 

1 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Food prices have in real terms doubled (average per year, compared to 2016) 

Number of respondents: 

57 

Arguments for time of realization 

Technological advancements will help make food production ever more efficient, thus avoiding a sharp 
price increase. 

The number of people on earth to be fed is growing - even if we in Europe have "shrinking societies" - as 
long as food distribution remains a problem, prices for food are a matter of speculation. 

Climate change will have an increasing influence on food prices. 

In the long run, one can imagine that prices will increase for energy, raw materials, agricultural products, 
etc. Other sectors will also face price increases. 

The  deforestation  implied  by  active  agriculture  across  the  earth  increases  the  climate  change  process 
and affects negatively agricultural activity. 

Food prices will become increasingly influenced by the cost of their environmental footprint, thus driving 
the economy towards more locally produced goods. 

Higher  food  prices  are  needed  to  guarantee/  provide  living  wages  for  people  who  are  working  in 
agriculture. In 2016, the Food prices fell again (see FAO Index). 

Will definitely increase due to climate changes, overpopulation, probable oligopolisation of agriculture 
and possibly - speculation.  

The real food price could increase if agricultural systems improve their pratices, especially their impact 
on the environment. But current sustainable agricultural systems do not suggest a doubling of prices. 

Food price is directly linked to energy costs. If EU shifts renewal energies to almost marginal cost, food 
prices will be lower. 

Real food prices have been relatively stable over the last 70 years. 

Middle men raise the food price. Multi-localization is needed, not multinationalism. 

No. of 
votes 

29 

25 

19 

18 

16 

12 

7 

5 

5 

4 

3 

2 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average: 

3.83 

Dispersion: 

1.37 

Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy 

There must be a policy and R&I considering not only the quantity of food but also the quality. 

This would help boost R&I in food production technologies - changes in policies might be necessary. 

Adequate distribution of food products needs to be scrutinised. The EU should take steps to ensure a 
reduction of waste in the food industry 

There  must be  campaigns  -  supported  by  scientific data on  the  link between  high  quality  food  and 
good  nutrition  -  it  has  to  be  emphasized  that  the  quality  of  food  suffers  if  consumers  just  "buy 
cheap".  

The EU, being wealthy, will always buy what it needs. Global food prices will be set by global supply 
and demand. Biotech will help, water availability limit this. But 9 bn need to be fed.  

Techniques to make food production less dependent on Climate Change impacts are needed. 

It will raise the inflation and the anger amongst people living in the cities. 

This would trigger R&I in synthetic foods and with it new policies. 

More R&I that support local and organic food production, and fair supply chains is needed. 

No. of 
votes 

36 

25 

19 

17 

8 

7 

3 

3 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Major  efforts  during  the  2020s  succeed  in  making  our  food  supply  systems  more 
sustainable,  secure,  efficient,  healthy  and  inclusive.  Still  in  view  of  a  growing  world 
population  and  environmental  pressures  on  land  and  water,  these  efforts  are  not 
sufficient.  A  second  pillar  of  food  supply,  based  on  a  range  of  novel  types  of  food 
production methods, complements the prevailing food supply system in the course of the 
2030s. 

Studies and reports