Nano to macro integral manufacturing, targeted scenario n°12 : glimpses of the future from the BOHEMIA study.
Date: 2018-06-14
Institutions: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation
Subjects: industrial manufacturing, industrial production, industrial research, manufactured goods, nanotechnology, new technology, sustainable development

Foresight 

Nano to Macro 
Integral 
Manufacturing 

Targeted scenario N°12 

Glimpses of the future  

from the BOHEMIA study  

[ 

EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Nano to Macro Integral Manufacturing  - Targeted scenario N°12 

European Commission 
Directorate-General for Research and Innovation 
Directorate A  Policy Development and Coordination 
Unit A.3  Horizon 2020 Policy and Foresight  
Contact   Nikolaos Kastrinos 
E-mail   nikolaos.kastrinos@ec.europa.eu  

RTD-PUBLICATIONS@ec.europa.eu 

European Commission 
B-1049 Brussels 

Manuscript completed in March 2018 

This  document  has  been  prepared  for  the  European  Commission  however  it  reflects  the  views  only  of  the  authors,  and  the 
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Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2018 

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EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Nano to Macro Integral 
Manufacturing  

Targeted scenario N°12 

Glimpses of the future  

from the BOHEMIA study   

2018 

Directorate-General for Research and Innovation 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
About BOHEMIA 

BOHEMIA is a foresight study (contract N° Contract PP-03021-2015) designed specifically to support 
the preparation of the next framework programme. 

The  study  put  forward  policy  recommendations  for  the  next  framework  programme,  based  on  a 
foresight processes involving scenario development, a Delphi survey and an online consultation.  

As  part  of  its  recommendations,  the  study  identified  19  likely  future  scenarios  with  disruptive 
implications and associated priority directions for EU research and innovation. 

The full range of the results of the study is available at https://ec.europa.eu/research/foresight 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Targeted scenario N° 12 
Nano-to-Macro Integral Manufacturing 

Summary 

Mature  3D  printing  technologies  have  become  one  of  the  main  modes  of  production  of  finished 
goods. Aided by advances in nanotechnology, additive manufacturing has entered many  high-value 
added markets. Changes in product design have rendered it possible for whole products to be made 
with fewer or no intermediate goods. As a result, traditional global value chains have been disrupted 
in terms of both geographic span and density. 

UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) most relevant to this scenario: 

 
 
 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
The scenario 

It is 2040. Mature 3D printing has become one of the main modes of production of finished goods. 
Not only have additive manufacturing technologies expanded in variety and efficiency, but they have 
extended  to  previously  unconquered  industrial  sectors  through  radical  advances  in  nanomaterials. 
The latter have enabled the “printing” of much more resilient objects, much cheaper metals, alloys 
and  transparent  glass.  Spurred  by  3D  printing,  manufacturing  based  on  nanomaterials  has  also 
broken into  new,  high-added value market segments:  stronger,  lighter,  more conductive  and  more 
flexible nano-structures have shaken up industries from aerospace and medicine to electronics and 
energy. 

3D printing technologies now routinely cover a large spectrum of resolutions. These extend from the 
nanoscale (ultrasonic 3D print works with shapes and sizes varying “from the sub-millimetre to the 
millimetre range”)  up  to  very  large  objects,  such as  buildings.  Indeed,  the  ability to  scale  up nano-
structures to macro level via 3D printing has revolutionized the engineering of materials.  

As a result, many industrial value chains have compressed in both geographic span and density, or 
have been substantially upset. The ‘DIY’, ‘home-made’ or ‘short-run’ approach to manufacturing has 
lowered the barrier of entry for local entrepreneurs and led to a revitalization of small shops. Major 
shifts  in  product  design  philosophy,  such  as  part  consolidation,  have  now  rendered  it  possible  for 
numerous  products  to  be  made  with  much  fewer  intermediate  goods.  Final  products  can  now  be 
produced  locally  and  on  demand,  reducing  the  need  for  high-volume  production  facilities, 
transportation, and warehousing. Emphasis is now on the adequate supply of high-quality materials 
and on services for fast customization. There is a financial premium on responsiveness to individual 
consumer preferences. Self-healing, shape-shifting and other 'smart' materials are growing markets.  

Relevance for Europe 

The  inevitable  rise  of  additive  manufacturing  throughout  the  world  will  lead  to  a  fundamental 
reconfiguration  of  specializations  among  countries.  For  some  it  is  an  opportunity  to  ‘re-shore’ 
industrial  production.  For  others  it  is  an  opportunity  to  exploit  really  advanced  knowledge  and 
technology  at  a  global  scale.  All  in  all,  the  economic  interest  is  enormous.  Three  industries 
(aerospace,  medical  and  dental)  are  forecasted  to  become  leaders  in  advanced  materials  markets 
with automotive industries growing significantly. Asian companies will soon assert greater influence.1 
So  is  the  societal  and  political  interest.  Material  properties  are  very  important  in  everything,  from 
infrastructure,  through  military  equipment  to  the  smaller  sensor  and  circuit.  Europe  could  play  a 
leading role or a peripheral one: the challenge is to compete effectively in knowledge production and 
to capitalize on knowledge assets throughout industry.  

 Contribution towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 

The rise of integral manufacturing is primarily relevant to the industry related SDG 9 (in particular 9.4 
on  “increased  resource-use  efficiency  and  greater  adoption  of  clean  and  environmentally  sound 
technologies  and  industrial  processes”,  and  9.5  on  enhancing  “scientific  research,  upgrade  the 
technological  capabilities  of  industrial  sectors  in  all  countries”).  However,  it  is  also  potentially 
important for “responsible consumption and production” (SDG 11) and for the environment-related 
SDGs.  

1https://www.bcg.com/publications/2017/lean-manufacturing-industry-4.0-get-ready-for-industrialized-additive-
manufacturing.aspx 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                            
Implications for EU Policy 

Broad  questions  of  industry-  and  trade-related  policy  arise,  especially  if  global  value  chains  (as  we 
know them) are to be substantially affected or disrupted. Transportation and logistics related policy 
will be crucial. The consequences of additive manufacturing for employment across industrial sectors 
need to be carefully examined. 

Intellectual  property  and  design  rights  are  directly  relevant,  in  particular  issues  of  property  over 
blueprints  and  counterfeit  products,  as  additive  production  technologies  become  accessible  and 
expand  to  increasingly  more  industries.  Original  schematics  may  be  pirated  and  circulated  widely, 
and ‘fake blueprints’ may invade the counterfeit additive manufacturing market. 

Questions  of  (cyber-)  security  will  also  be  paramount,  as  additive  manufacturing  processes  can  be 
hacked to generate flaws in products.2 Even small, undetectable changes in products objects in larger 
products may lead to catastrophic failure.  

While  there  is  some  promise  in  additive  manufacturing  as  far  as  its  environmental  footprint  is 
concerned (e.g., major reduction in transportation costs), its impact on the environment remains an 
open  question.  The  evolution  of  the  relevant  technologies  will  depend  substantially  on 
environmental policy constraints (such as the use of energy or waste policy).  

Future Directions for EU R&I policy recommended by the public consultation 

  Understanding  the  impact  of  3D  printing  on  individual  health  and  safety  and  on  the 

environment, across various industries 
Improvements in nano-to-macro 3D printing technologies 

 
  Piloting various applications for the local, decentralised production of 3D-printed objects 
 
Improving  technologies for nano-based  and  functional  materials  with  an  eye  to  scaling 
them up to mass-production 

  New designs for 3D-printed ojects that emphasize their disposability and recycling 
 

Inquiries  into  and  experimenting  with  frugal  (low-cost)  innovation  enabled  by  3D 
printing  

  Understanding and improving quality control in industries which may become reliant on 

3D-printing (e.g., automotive) 

  Studying  and  developing  new  materials  that  can  be  used  in  or  adapted  to  integral 

manufacturing technologies 

  Research on the impact of additive manufacturing on employment in various industries. 

2 Chris Wiltz, “3D Printing Has an Urgent Need for Cybersecurity”, Design News, March 17, 2017 
(https://www.designnews.com/3d-printing/3d-printing-has-urgent-need-cybersecurity/42281071756489). 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                            
Annex:  Relevant Data from the Delphi Survey 

The Delphi survey of the BOHEMIA study asked experts about the time of realization of 143 
statements about the future, and about the relevance of Research and Innovation for that 
realization, or about the relevance of the realization for Research and Innovation policy. The 
experts were asked to justify their judgements with arguments. The whole data set has been 
published and can be found at: https://ec.europa.eu/research/foresight 

This annex includes the parts of the data set that are relevant to this scenario.   

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adaptive materials and surfaces that are able to change their characteristics according to 
user requirements appear in consumer applications 

Number of respondents: 

101 

Arguments regarding the time of realization 

There is already a lot of research going on, e.g. the development of interactive functional materials and 
smart surfaces, as well as embedded micro systems and functional films for adaptive plastics. 

Applications of nano materials are still quite niche. 

Adhesive materials and surfaces are still a big challenge. 

Smart materials can be designed for military advantage as well as competitive advantage in consumer 
products, e.g., smart windows that adapt to changing light intensity. 

Insights  will  tell  us  how  smart  product  functionalities  can  be  realized  through  specific  characteristics 
integrated in the surface (at micro or nano scale, by different production technologies). 

Smart surfaces will be produced for personalized medicine approaches for medical devices. 

Strong incentives to deploy smart materials that offer competitive advantage will drive rapid market 
introduction. 

No. of 
votes 

92 

24 

24 

11 

10 

6 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

4.16 

Dispersion: 

0.89 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

Development of interactive functional materials and smart surfaces as well as of embedded micro systems 
and  functional  films  for  adaptive  plastics  is  needed  for  a  significant  contribution  to  biomimetics,  self-
regulating reinforcement, and self-repairing. 

This also depends on the degree to which the consumer is prepared or willing to deal with such materials 
(hence, market-dependent and not only R&I-dependent) 

The understanding of the user and his/her requirements is very difficult and needs very specific research. 

More in-depth understanding is required between the functionalities requested in consumer applications 
and the characteristics of adaptive materials and surfaces that enable to realise them 

Smart materials will be developed where they give competitive advantage to products with features that 
better meet consumer needs than non-adaptive. 

Deeper  knowledge  of  surface  interaction  with  human  tissue  will  be  required  to  design  personalized 
medical devices. 

The important applications for adaptive surfaces are primarily architectural (for passive heating, cooling, 
and lighting), not consumer products. 

Adaptive materials can include functionality addressing systemic needs not just features, e.g. enable more 
effective recycling with self-destructing drink bottle caps for empty bottles. 

No. of 
votes 

87 

27 

18 

15 

14 

6 

5 

5 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Self-healing, shape-shifting materials reacting to light and heat are applied for the first 
time in large-scale construction in the EU  

Number of respondents: 

83 

Arguments regarding the time of realization 

The cost factor will prevent large-scale adoption for the short- and medium-term future. 

Even the latest advances remain mostly laboratory stuff with few proven commercial prototypes.  

The  construction  area  is  highly  scattered  and  conservative  market.  All  players  (architects,  builders, 
building owners, ...) need to be informed about the advantages of new building materials. 

University of California and University of Colorado scientists developed in 2016 a transparent rubbery 
material that can be stretched up to 50 times its original size, is conductive, and self-heals mechanical 
damage. 

Thermochromic windows (darkening when warm) have been commercially available for over a decade 
already. 

Chinese  construction  product  innovation  may  drive  change  as  Chinese  construction  firms  enter  EU 
markets with use of adaptive materials enabling market entry against entrenched competition. 

There is already a self-healing concrete, light reacting paints and other materials following. 

Such materials need to respond to real customer/consumer needs 

Chinese construction market, the largest in the world, facing increasing costs and competitive pressure 
driving innovation. 

No. of 
votes 

55 

38 

17 

12 

12 

4 

4 

1 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

3.89 

Dispersion: 

1.25 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

Develop close-to-market prototypes based on self-healing properties of materials. 

Improve the cost-efficiency of self-healing materials. 

There is a need for demonstrator buildings to show the advantages of new construction materials. 

R&I  of  adaptive  materials  is  important,  but  the  most  important  adaptations  are  not  shape,  they  are 
transmission / reflection of heat and light. 

Bridges and similar high use construction that requires adaptation to expansion, heat and cold can benefit 
from self-healing adaptive materials. 

Building systems that can enable vertical agriculture, lower cost energy and air conditioning more effective 
water use will have competitive advantage 

No. of 
votes 

58 

55 

26 

9 

3 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The work of consumers (original designs, customization), along with the emergence of 3D 
printing redefines manufacturing industries 

Number of respondents: 

27 

Arguments for time of realization 

3D printing allows consumers to print (produce) their own products. 

3D printing is already beginning to redefine the after-sales "servicing" sector.  

3D  printing  counters  globalisation  as  production  on  the  spot  becomes  cheaper  than  traditional 
production, in addition to being more personalised. 

Co-creation  is  becoming  the  dominating  paradigm,  this  means  that  users  and  producers  are  more  and 
more the same persons and jointly produce something. 

It is unlikely that 3D printers would do away with the advantages of large assemblies of industrial robots 
any time soon.  

3D  printers  will  redefine  the  way  design  functions,  and  may  lead  to  the  emergence  of  a  strong  design 
sector.  

Co-creation  and  3D-printing  do  not  re-define  anything.  They  just  complement  and  augment  what  has 
been the status quo for some time now. 

No. of 
votes 

16 

14 

12 

12 

7 

4 

3 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average: 

3.41 

Dispersion: 

1.63 

Arguments regarding the significance for R&I policy 

R&I policy can foster the new industries of 3D printing.  

Ownership of open innovation needs clarifications also in case of 3D printing.  

Citizen and consumer policy gives the power back to the citizens. 

EU R&I policy will become more efficient as links between Research and Innovation are likely to be 
strengthened by a wide spread of 3D printing.  

Research into developing the educational system to deliver the needed MINT, engineering and design 
skills on a broad basis is needed. 

EU R&I policy should focus on the understanding of 3D printing within population. A 3D knowledge 
divide would lead to increasing inequalities, reflected in income inequalities and social unrest. 

Considering  the  limitations  of  3D-priinting  in  terms  of  materials  used,  the  logisitic  and  marketing 
should precede learned guesses about the fantastic possibilities that it eill/might open. 

No. of 
votes 

17 

10 

6 

5 

5 

5 

3 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Mature  3D  printing  technologies  have  become  one  of  the  main  modes  of  production  of 
finished  goods.  Aided  by  advances  in  nanotechnology,  additive  manufacturing  has 
entered  many  high-value  added  markets.  Changes  in  product  design  have  rendered  it 
possible for whole products to be made with fewer or no intermediate goods. As a result, 
traditional global value chains have been disrupted in terms of both geographic span and 
density. 

Studies and reports