Cheap renewable energy, targeted scenario n°3 : glimpses of the future from the BOHEMIA study.
Date: 2018-06-13
Institutions: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation
Subjects: EU research policy, Framework Programme for Research and Development, biofuel, electrical energy, electricity supply, energy grid, energy transport, innovation, price of energy, renewable energy, research and development, simulation, sustainable development

Foresight 

Cheap renewable 
energy  

Targeted scenario N°3 

Glimpses of the future  

from the BOHEMIA study  

[ 

EN 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cheap Renewable Energy- Targeted scenario N°3 

European Commission 
Directorate-General for Research and Innovation 
Directorate A  Policy Development and Coordination 
Unit A.3  Horizon 2020 Policy and Foresight  
Contact   Nikolaos Kastrinos 
E-mail   nikolaos.kastrinos@ec.europa.eu  

RTD-PUBLICATIONS@ec.europa.eu 

European Commission 
B-1049 Brussels 

Manuscript completed in March 2018 

This  document  has  been  prepared  for  the  European  Commission  however  it  reflects  the  views  only  of  the  authors,  and  the 
Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. 

More information on the European Union is available on the internet (http://europa.eu). 

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2018 

PDF  

ISBN 978-92-79-81125-8 

doi: 10.2777/934213  

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EUROPEAN COMMISSION 

Cheap Renewable Energy  

Targeted scenario N°3 

Glimpses of the future  

from the BOHEMIA study   

2018 

Directorate-General for Research and Innovation 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
About BOHEMIA 

BOHEMIA is a foresight study (contract N° Contract PP-03021-2015) designed specifically to support 
the preparation of the next framework programme. 

The  study  put  forward  policy  recommendations  for  the  next  framework  programme,  based  on  a 
foresight processes involving scenario development, a Delphi survey and an online consultation.  

As  part  of  its  recommendations,  the  study  identified  19  likely  future  scenarios  with  disruptive 
implications and associated priority directions for EU research and innovation. 

The full range of the results of the study is available at https://ec.europa.eu/research/foresight 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Targeted scenario N° 3 
Cheap Renewable Energy 

Summary 

It is 2040. Renewable Energy is available at competitive prices. More than half the electricity used for 
transport, housing and industry comes from renewable sources. A pan-European smart grid coupled 
with  local  micro-grids,  with  adequate  storage  facilities,  ensures  reliability  of  electricity  supply. 
Hydrogen and biofuels complement the system. The sector is expanding to novel cultivations, such as 
algae and bacteria.  

UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) most relevant to this scenario: 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The scenario 

By 2040, renewable energy sources are widely available, generating more than half of EU electricity. 
Solar  power  generation  makes  a  huge  difference  in  Europe’s  grid.  Prices  have  collapsed,  efficiency 
has  increased  and  painted  cells  are  common-place  in  new  buildings.  Wind  and  wave  energy  also 
contribute. The smart grid is underpinned by an extensive ICT layer that enables high interoperability 
of  network  operators  and  by  devices,  allowing  for  real-time  interaction  among  all  actors  in  the 
system. This  pan-European smart grid is coupled with local micro-grids, which are built up through 
community-based  projects  and  citizens’  crowd-funding.  Integration  of  storage  facilities  in  the  grid 
ensures  reliability  of  supply.  EU-wide  utilities  offer  flexible  tariffs  in  a  highly  competitive  electricity 
market  with  full  participation  of  consumers.  Low  and  medium  voltage  electricity  is  sourced  from 
medium  and  small-scale  plants,  down  to  micro-generation  by  prosumers.  For  high  voltage 
distribution the grid relies on large offshore generation plants.  

Solar  water-splitting  technology  is  widely  used  in  the  EU  to  store  energy.  The  hydrogen  thus 
produced is commercialised through a dedicated infrastructure, meeting the increasing demand and 
supporting  the  diffusion  of  hydrogen  powered  vehicles.  These  vehicles,  equipped  with  a  new 
generation  of  cheaper  fuel  cells,  together  with  other  electric  vehicles  and  biodiesel  heavy-duty 
vehicles  provide  for  the  needs  of  road  transport.  Electric  vehicles  provide  also  storage  capacity  to 
balance the electricity flow at the low voltage level.  

Biomass is used in the residual thermo-energy production, as their carbon-cycle emissions are lower 
than  fossil  fuels.  EU  countries  not  only  exploit  almost  all  urban  and  agricultural  waste  for  energy 
production, but also develop new and cleaner bioenergy sources. More than 5% of the production of 
bio-energy  in  the  EU  is  based  on  algae  and  research  is  ongoing  to  make  bacteria  able  to  produce 
carbon-free hydrogen fuel.  

For low power devices, all potential sources of energy – from body movement to sweat, tears, and 
even blood – are exploited. Companies developed power-generating systems for pavements, football 
fields and even school corridors using kinetic tiles that harness energy. Improved energy harvesting 
has  extended  battery  life  and  even  managed  to  do  away  with  battery  replacement  in  some  cases. 
Autonomy  from  the  grid  increases.  All  mobile  and  remote  electronic  devices  use  technologies  that 
are energy-self-sufficient and wireless.  

Relevance for Europe 

Climate change makes the decarbonisation of energy production imperative for the world as a whole. 
By leading in the efforts to decarbonize energy production and consumption, Europe will place many 
of  its  industries,  from  power  plants  based  on  combined  heat  and  power  (CHP)  to  network 
management software, at the forefront of global competition. 

Contribution towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 

Combined with other determinants, RES can contribute massively to combat climate change and its 
impacts (SDG 13) and help ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns (SDG 12).  

Renewable energy sources are necessary to achieve SDG 7, and ensure access to affordable, reliable, 
sustainable and  modern  energy for  all,  and  its  specific target  to  increase  substantially  the  share  of 
renewable energy in the global energy mix. 

 
 
 
 
Implications for EU policy 

Climate  change  related  regulations  and  energy  market  regulation  are  key  elements  of  a  policy  to 
support the use of renewable energy sources. A clear regulatory framework that would promote the 
integration of renewable energy sources to the energy grids while intensifying competition between 
suppliers.  Structural  interventions  are  also  needed  to  fully  integrate  renewable  energy  sources.  To 
maximise  utility,  it  is  worth  to  identify  specific  areas  where  the  main  grid  can  be  substituted  by 
micro-scale grids. Along with structural transformations and the dynamism of the EU energy market, 
consumers’  behavioural  change  can  drive  the  transition  of  the  socio-economic  system  that  would 
favour the transition to renewable energy sources.  

Future Directions for EU R&I policy recommended by the public consultation 

  Methods,  practices  and  solutions  to  promote  energy  saving  and  reduction  of  energy 

consumption  

  Exploration of energy storage solutions, beyond batteries 
  Energy  efficiency  measures,  controlling  the  rebound  effects,  especially  for  buildings 

sector 

  Developing optimal regulatory framework and incentives for long term systems change 

toward 100% renewables  

  Smart  grids  deployment,  including  aspects  such  as  infrastructure,  demand  response 

services and blockchains 

  Research on artificial photosynthesis 
 

Incentive  schemes  to  promote  products  and  services  with  minimum  environmental 
footprint 

  Research and exploitation of energy harvesting 
  Research on batteries 
  Research on hydrogen fuel cells 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Annex:  Relevant Data from the Delphi Survey 

The Delphi survey of the BOHEMIA study asked experts about the time of realization of 143 
statements about the future, and about the relevance of Research and Innovation for that 
realization, or about the relevance of the realization for Research and Innovation policy. The 
experts were asked to justify their judgements with arguments. The whole data set has been 
published and can be found at: https://ec.europa.eu/research/foresight 

This annex includes the parts of the data set that are relevant to this scenario.   

 
 
 
 
 
 
5 % or more of the production of food, medicine and bio-energy in the EU is based on 
algae 

Number of respondents : 

  50 

Arguments for time of realization 

Industrial-scale demonstrations of sustainable algae cultures for biofuel production are available. 

Algae research gives hope for renewable carbon-negative source of food and medicines. 

Growing algae for food and biofuel contributes to the reduction of greenhouse emissions. 

There are still simpler alternatives and options within the current land-based food system. 

No. of 
votes 

40 

29 

22 

8 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

  3.86 

Dispersion: 

  0.96 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

There is need for further research on the manufacture of bio-compounds from microalgae with 
applications in food production.  

New research may exploit the ability of algae to produce lipids using energy from photosynthesis.  

research on algal growth conditions and on which variety to use for which purpose is still required 

Further research on bio-refinery of algae and consumer acceptance of algal products is required. 

No. of 
votes 

44 

31 

15 

4 

 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
The EU produces 50% of its electricity for transport, housing and industry from renewable 
sources 

Number of respondents : 

92 

Arguments for time of realization 

A strong learning curve of energy storage options and smart energy solutions helps to deal with the 
volatility of the intermittent generation of renewables. 

The price of solar per Watt has almost halved between 2010-2015, and continues to fall. 

The need for energy security is pushing Europe in this direction. 

Renewables have their own environmental problems. 

Cost reduction of renewables makes them competitive with other sources, with the additional advantage 
of being carbon-free. 

There is a continuous diversification of renewable energy production, which will probably result in the 
large-scale adoption of certain technologies. 

A strong push towards electric vehicles and new technology such as self-driving cars will cause a shift to 
cleaner transportation. 

Consumers prefer renewables; the prices of storage and local generation will fall lower than grid power. 

Role of nuclear energy is significant to reach low-carbon targets. 

Germany already reached 40% energy production from renewables in 2016, more than doubling the 
percentage from 2010. 

Flexibilisation of demand (demand response). 

Renewable energy is growing fast and will continue to do so. But the timing for reaching 50% will be 
pushed back by the increase of electric vehicles, the rate of which is an unknown.  

Beside all technical solutions, a mandatory requirement was a broad user acceptance of all societal 
groups and stakeholders – achieved with tailored concepts of information and motivation. 

No. of 
votes 

78 

41 

23 

23 

19 

15 

14 

12 

11 

9 

8 

6 

5 

 
 
 
 
 
In Bavaria, there is a community (Wildpoldsried) that already in 2016 produces 5 times the energy it 
needs for itself. Why not learn from this and similar communities? 

This trivialises the issues involved. There is more to energy than a few windmills. Integrated energy 
systems - e.g., zinc or aluminium for air cells - will take massive effort.  

Convergence of renewable energy technologies will deliver higher value to the customer (heating, 
cooling, electricity). 

Microgrids will go much of the way, but need to interlink with other microgrids and the smart grid, and 
need ICT technologies to enable such inter-operability, self-monitoring and context awareness. 

Access to the future electrical energy supply needs affordable, available and sustainable generation and 
storage opportunities. 

The definition of renewable must be updated, because it is not independent from non-renewable, and 
therefore 50% is actually, even beyond 2040, too high a target. 

It is crucial to efficiently use energy through friction and wear reduction, with decreasing of transport 
through remote work and with change in human's high-cost energy habits. 

Beside (renewable) energy (kWh) production, sufficient generation of power (kW) must be guaranteed. 
Only the combination will lead to the desired success. 

All energy generators need a level playing field within a carbon-free future electricity market. 

This is our forecast from www.TechCastGlobal.com 

PRIMES scenario in the context of Clean Energy for All Europeans points to such 50% penetration in 
electricity to achieve the 27% renewables target. 

EU public is not ready for a flexible renewable energy consumption as needs to be key factor to ensure 
100% successful implementation 

The use and development of microgrids enables communities with local generation and management of 
their own energy needs, eliminating transmission losses etc. 

The future challenge will be to secure the CO2-free electrical energy supply.  

Strong efforts in energy efficiency and energy saving will allow to reduce the overall electricity 
consumption in all sectors. 

5 

4 

3 

3 

3 

3 

2 

2 

2 

2 

2 

2 

1 

1 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

4.07 

Dispersion: 

0.70 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

The energy mix at national level remains dependent on the political will. 

R&I on energy storage is key. 

Beside the technical learning curve, we need a social learning curve. A community can take care of its 
own needs. R&I in the social context have to be accelerated and improved. 

The need for a technology learning curve to reduce costs at the level of grid parity implies still huge 
investments in R&I, particular to develop innovative technologies like ocean energy, etc. 

Human behaviour has to be subject to research in order to 're-organise' our consumption needs. 

The development of thin-film solar cells could transform any surface into energy collection system. 

A sustainable energy production method still needs to be found. 

Increasing penetration of electric passenger cars market will drive the need for more power generation, 
more widely distribute electrical storage particularly for home use driving R&D + innovation system wide 

Reducing the energy demand should be the first priority. 

Energy storage and flexibility will be the future key issues - R&D and effective use of existing facilities 
(e.g. storage- and pumped storage hydro power) 

We need solid & sustainable business models with benefits to all stakeholders and good M2M (machine 
to machine) & HMI (human machine interfaces) for this to happen 

Research on how to convince people and enterprises to participate are needed for a successful 
implementation; 

A critical review of energy production and consumption pattern throughout Europe is required to 
develop the system perspective 

For this to work, we need to build an entire new energy system on new social & economic foundations.  

To go further, beyond 50%, will require R&D but this share is already reached by some countries, region 
or territories 

Breakthrough development on batteries is essential for breakthrough od renewables. 

No. of 
votes 

61 

59 

36 

27 

12 

11 

10 

8 

8 

6 

4 

4 

4 

3 

3 

2 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
80% of all building surfaces in the EU that are exposed to sunlight are used for power 
generation 

Number of respondents : 

83 

Arguments for time of realization 

Buildings' refurbishment and renovation cycles offer the windows of opportunity to install solar power 
generation, but these are long-term solutions.  

Individual owners and cultural conservationists will resist solar installations on some structures (ex. 
personal homes, and historical buildings). 

A strong policy on energy renovation of buildings is needed to achieve an ambitious solar target. 

PV is probably not the most economically (and environmentally) efficient solution (especially in the north 
of the EU), building-refurbishment is a current, efficient solution. 

Retrofitting existing buildings may be problematic, and undesirable for certain types of buildings 
(heritage). 

Decreasing costs and easy deployment of energy storage will reduce the value of generating power from 
existing buildings, largely limiting this option to new construction. 

Thinking about the potential of artificial photosynthesis and its generation of chemical kinds of power 
(e.g. using north faces of buildings) will be interesting. It does not always need to be PV. 

PV does not have to be the only option available. Other static technologies, such as thermoelectrics, 
could contribute to meeting the target.  

In 2014, Michigan State University researchers developed a completely transparent solar cell that could 
become a perfect window replacement. 

Much more has to be done with architects and owners to integrate the PV on new buildings and 
retrofitting existing building as a first option. 

80% only realistic with strong legal or commercial incentive. 

PV does not have to be the only option available. Other static technologies, such as thermoelectrics, 
could contribute to meeting the target.  (4)  
(I cannot select this option) 

No. of 
votes 

54 

38 

35 

18 

16 

12 

9 

7 

5 

4 

3 

3 

 
 
 
 
 
Average: 

3.71 

Dispersion: 

0.91 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

Research should look into making building-applicable solar technology as unobtrusive as possible - 
while still maintaining acceptable cost. 

Social acceptance (and a change of mind of architects/builders) of these technologies will be as 
essential as technological advances... 

If the cost and functionality of a solar roof is comparable to a traditional roof the solar roof will be 
chosen, particularly if there are government incentives.  R&D to drive down costs is key. 

There's a lot of promise not so much in using building surfaces, but in road / street surfaces, which, 
however, raise additional concerns about long-term reliability and maintainability - and these need 
systematic exploration. 

No. of 
votes 

46 

37 

21 

10 

Not a technical problem, more of a social and economic one. Besides, one wall of 4 is always pointing 
north, and one more is facing away from the sun at any given moment.  

6 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Solar thermal power plant electricity generation is available in every EU country 

Number of respondents : 

  71 

Arguments for time of realization 

Nordic countries are not solar-rich enough for this technology. 

Solar thermal plants only work for solar-rich regions where they can deliver base load energy and thus 
overcome their relative higher costs compared to solar PV. 

"Available" is an easy target or goal. 

According to ESTIF (European Solar Thermal Industry Federation) the market size for solar thermal energy 
has fallen in virtually every country in the EU in 2016, continuing a trend already manifest in past years.  

The competition with PV remains difficult, despite the advantage of dispatchability. 

Solar thermal power plants imply some form of concentration through mirrors, which uses only the direct 
and not the diffused radiation. There are hardly any suitable areas in Europe.  

In 2015, only 4 EU countries had operational plants, and no other country in addition to these had plants 
under construction (Greenpeace 2016 report). 

No specific efficiency targets and/or power requirements make this question useless in terms of 
discussion. 

PV together with heat pumps is already more competitive for heating and cooling compared with solar 
thermal. 

Why should solar thermal plants be in every EU country? 

Solar thermal plants only work during daylight even in solar-rich regions.  

No. of 
votes 

41 

35 

15 

13 

8 

8 

7 

5 

4 

2 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Average: 

  3.40 

Dispersion: 

  1.32 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

Research is needed to bring down the costs of solar energy. 

Evaluate the impact of current technologies on wildlife and develop ways to mitigate it. 

This could be done now. 

Some current solar thermal plant technologies need a lot of water - an economic issue in some 
locations, which may however be tackled by innovative technologies. 

Research for solutions with PV in combination with heat pumps are more relevant 

No specific efficiency targets and/or power requirements make this question useless in terms of 
discussion 

No. of 
votes 

32 

12 

9 

5 

5 

4 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
For the first time, bacteria are able to produce carbon-free hydrogen fuel 

Number of respondents : 

44 

Arguments for time of realization 

A lot of time is needed to produce the amount of bacteria necessary for significant effects on carbon-
saving. 

No. of 
votes 

21 

This is likely to happen, but conversion efficiency will lag way behind other methods (e.g. PV+electrolysis).  12 

Researchers have engineered the E.coli bacteria to generate renewable propane.  

Scaling up "synthetic biology" will make this available much sooner than we expect today (see: The 
Economist, 2017-05-06 "primordial gloop"). 

In a factory or in a test tube? 

Silly nonsense. If you want hydrogen, make it in a desert somewhere. Then go to paraffin via syngas ex 
salt-water irrigated biomass. Better, skip hydrogen and go to reduced metals.  

High likelihood, but multiple competing factors retard possible deployment.  Options such as Indirectly-
Heated Pyrolytic Gasification for production of H2 from local biomass could offer low-cost entry. 

The topic is obsolete: Already biomass which converts CO2 into hydrocarbons is CO2 neutral. No need for 
H2 producing bacteria, which in turn create the need to set up H2 infrastructure. 

12 

9 

7 

5 

5 

3 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

  3.87 

Dispersion: 

  1.51 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

The efficiency of the process needs further improvement.   

The ecological impacts need further research. 

H2 economy requires wide deployment and a robust supplier base.  Distributed low cost generation of 
H2 could accelerate the use and offer a market entry strategy. 

Many other energy rich molecules can be synthesized by microbes. Electron storage in chemical bonds is 
favourable. But rather not H2 by microbes.  

No. of 
votes 

34 

25 

6 

3 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Energy harnessed from the human body is used in applications such as heart pacemakers, 
organ or brain implants 

Number of respondents : 

  44 

Arguments regarding the time of realization 

Many potential sources of energy - from body movement to sweat, tears, and even blood - are being 
explored concurrently, increasing the likelihood of success in at least some of these cases. 

Companies developed power-generating systems for pavements, football fields and even school corridors 
using kinetic tiles that harness energy. 

Science fiction 

No. of 
votes 

28 

12 

10 

This is not a reasonable solution for the Energy challenges in the EU, it could never be a significant 
contribution to the energy system compared to energy efficiency and renewables. 

Bio-mechanical sensors are a hot topic (cfr. 'robotic hand') and already use small electrical signals 
produced by nerve endings. Next step to small energy production will be possible in near future. 

Energy harvesting will extend battery life & sometimes eliminate battery replacement, but the power of 
IoT devices needs to reduce, and harvesting & storage technologies need to improve (HW, SW, system 
models). 

Australian and Chinese researchers have recently produced the first 'smart fabric' capable of turning 
thermal energy into electricity. 

Life extension made possible by various implants becomes feasible with sources of energy internal to the 
body that are not at risk of external damage.  Cost assurance of safety will pace deployment.   

A recent Swiss prototype of a skin-like filter  uses solar energy to power a pacemaker. 

People need to understand better the ambient energies available in most use cases and design around 
this power budget for hardware and software. 

More energy from humans is available in used water and waste, if you really want to adress this issue. 
Orders of magnitude are important to keep in mind to really evaluate the potential of the human body. 

There is already a prototype of a mechanically powered pacemaker. Think self-winding wristwatches... 

8 

5 

5 

4 

2 

2 

2 

1 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

  3.60 

Dispersion: 

  1.92 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

Research has to overcome a substantial efficiency barrier in using human body energy to power 
implants or wearable devices. 

A breakthrough is needed in the field of very thin and flexible batteries for the technology to 
spread widely. 

Sufficient energy is generated by bodily systems to power implants.  Tapping that energy is a 
major research challenge. 

Many of the systems which could be realized are based on materials properties, so material 
improvements are needed to achieve these targets 

Better power management ICs based on real life ambient energies is needed 

Lower power sensors and energy harvesting centric software to minimize IoT device power is 
critical - models to simulate application behavior is also critical 

Energy saving, energy efficiency and renewables combined to a less consuming life style should 
be the ambitious goals to reduce our energy bill. 

Less administration for prototyping can boost research and make the introduction in real practice 
easy to overwin. 

Energetic self-sustainability e.g. for pacemakers is a very nice property for patients' well-being, 
but will not have significant impact to EU energy policy's goals. 

No. of 
votes 

27 

18 

6 

6 

5 

2 

1 

1 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Paintable solar energy cells, enabled by nanomaterials, are used for the first time on the 
roof of a large building (more than 100m2) in the EU to harvest electricity 

Number of respondents : 

59 

Arguments regarding the time of realization 

The production, installation & maintenance costs for photovoltaic materials such as silicon are still high, 
so research groups are working on solar paint with increasingly better results. 

The statement looks only for a demonstration project - after several years of research on the technology 
already it should be possible to demonstrate it on a roof quite fast. 

Paint is relatively cheap, but how durable is it? 

Painting implies a gross process even if nanomaterials are involved.  3D printing is an ultra precise process 
that can be viewed as a form of painting.  Robotic 3D printing of photovoltaic surfaces. 

To use non-toxic nanomaterials is difficult, but the first experiments with non-toxic salts were successful. 

This is an oversimplified statement. Besides the "paint" (absorber), PV will always need cables, electrodes 
and wiring. These systems would need simplification and significant cost-down, too. 

No. of 
votes 

39 

23 

10 

8 

7 

6 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

  4.05 

Dispersion: 

  1.00 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

The challenge is to reach an efficiency level equal to or greater than silicon-based solar cells.  

To be able to paint them on a large scale is a scientific challenge. 

Clarification of toxicity is a research challenge that will also bring knowledge to other fields. 

No. of 
votes 

41 

25 

17 

Maybe, this technology should not be used for roofs but for walls. 'conventional' silicon PV on roofs is fine.   9 

3D printing of photovoltaic surfaces may be able to achieve higher levels of efficiency.  The challenge is to 
lower the cost of 3D printing devices for this application. 

We need further R&D to develop the triangle of 1) high efficiency and lifetime, 2) low cost (in module and 
system) and 3) social acceptance (non toxic, aesthetic for use in walls). 

We will need to make a choice between cheap but inefficient and expensive but efficient. 

Long-time durability of nanomaterials will be a key issue, in particular when exposed to light and heat 

5 

4 

3 

3 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Solar water-splitting technology is used in the industrial and commercial sectors across the 
EU to store the energy from the sun 

Number of respondents : 

  56 

Arguments regarding the time of realization 

Cheap water splitting devices that operate for a long time are still elusive, but researchers are working 
to develop them. 

The demand for hydrogen is increasing fast.  

More than 300 water-splitting cycles are described in the literature, which makes it likely that some of 
them will prove effective. 

PV + electrolysis seem to be the winners currently, so this is part of the overall scientific challenge of 
PV efficiency/price. 

The challenge is not the splitting but in the storage of H2 from small scale decentralized systems.  Large 
scale H2 competes with electric and costs many billions.  Decentralized H2 production needed. 

Systemic problem, not a technical one. 

You don't do this in the EU. You do it in N Africa. You make the H2 into something useful like a paraffin 
to move it. H2 itself is a dreadful fuel but a good reagent. 

No. of 
votes 

32 

24 

18 

14 

13 

5 

4 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

3.75 

Dispersion: 

1.25 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

Need for developing methods to boost the longevity of high-efficiency photocathodes in photo 
electrochemical water-splitting devices.  

There is a need for R&D on decentralized H2 production, storage and use. 

There are more than 300 water-splitting cycles described in the literature - the most effective 
and useful ones must still be identified. Research on them is highly needed.  

Systemic problem, not a technical one. 

Not from "photosynthesis". Solar cells => electrolysis.  

No. of 
votes 

32 

29 

18 

3 

3 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A hydrogen infrastructure in Europe has been built up and is in use 

Number of respondents : 

63 

Arguments regarding the time of realization 

The hydrogen infrastructure is under test in 10 countries. 

There will be strong support from the car-maker industry. 

Hydrogen (H2) and Methane (CH4) infrastructures will complement each other.  

Electrically-chargeable vehicles represent a serious alternative to hydrogen. If electricity charging 
infrastructure develops well, hydrogen investments could be stranded. 

The major investment required both in the infrastructure and in the automotive fuel cells and other 
devices will be difficult to justify in the face of rapid penetration of electrics in transportation. 

There will be strong opposition from gas companies. 

Public controversies about the aim and use of these infrastructures are likely to increase given the 
current paucity of public information. 

Decentralized, small scale H2 production particularly from local biomass, storage and use, is a 
promising option for which infrastructure does not exist. 

We will not be able to afford several new energy systems in parallel. With current political trends, 
electricity will be entrenched by 2030 and hydrogen will remain a niche or a curiosity.  

This is a misconception. Hydrogen does not need "infrastructure", and the methane grid will not cope 
with molecular hydrogen.  

In 2016, the European Union Horizon 2020 programme financed 20 extra hydrogen-refuelling 
stations in Europe. 

No. of 
votes 

25 

24 

24 

17 

10 

9 

6 

6 

5 

4 

4 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Relevance of R&I (number of votes) 

Average: 

  3.36 

Dispersion: 

  1.12 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

This is rather about the political will to adopt relevant public policies. 

New technology is needed to increase the output of hydrogen production, reduce its cost, as well as 
reduce greenhouse gases. 

Rather than technology maturity it is a matter of market choice and investment rationale. 

Distributed, low cost small scale H2 production from local biomass and storage offers market entry 
for communities choosing the H2 path contributing to local jobs.  

Why are none of these questions about actual, real world energy? This is all high school fantasy stuff. 
What about hydraulic fracturing? Russian dependency? 

While fuel cells can be competitive if they are produced in numbers comparable to IC engines 
deployment, this demands the existence of an infrastructure that will cost more than that necessary 
for electrics. 

The main question to be solved is safe large-volume H2 storage. 

To produce H2 from biogas or other Biofuel materials is a nonsense. The CO2 emissions are not 
avoided. 

No. of 
votes 

36 

34 

13 

9 

3 

2 

2 

2 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
All mobile and remote electronic devices use technologies that are energy-self-sufficient 
and completely wireless 

Number of respondents : 

  84 

Arguments regarding the time of realization 

The number of compact, energy-self-sufficient, remote terminal units is increasing. 

A large spectrum of energy-harnessing solutions from different sources are emerging. 

Full replacement of existing technologies in this domain (all devices, 100%) will only happen if 
they are ruled out by regulatory measures. 

Wireless charging is already on the market 

Intelligence in combining all available energies in nature will accelerate the progress. 

I don't consider wireless charging as "energy self-sufficiency", but large-scale availability of 
wireless power will make it feel as if it was.   

Disconnected products are useless and therefore any self sufficiency is low value. Wireless 
solutions are obvious as well as energy harvesting but these do not imply self sufficiency. 

Short- to medium-range wireless power transfer will charge mobile devices. Such a transfer will 
be mainly directed on the device itself rather than spread within the environment. 

Devices become so small/thin/foils that they have no room for connectors, only radio waves 
(from light to wireless) interfaces with them.  

Energy self-sufficiency rules out any form of energy made available with the purpose of using it 
in the device. 

Very difficult to predict if or when ALL mobile and remote devices will be energy self-sufficient 
and wireless... 

No. of 
votes 

67 

59 

31 

20 

8 

7 

6 

6 

3 

2 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Average: 

4.13 

Dispersion: 

0.81 

Arguments regarding the relevance of R&I 

Research is needed for energy harvesting of various types: solar, indoor lighting, vibrational, 
thermal, biological, chemical, electromagnetic. 

Wireless Energy Transmission and Battery Management are promising research and innovation 
fields.  

Promising research: self-sustainability and virtually perpetual operation of wireless networks. 

Research is needed on solid-state high-energy and high-power density of micro-energy storage 
devices (batteries and supercapacitors)  

One to three main harvesting mechanisms will dominate when mass market adoption takes 
place. Solar being one of the most likely winners. 

Energy consumption of devices has to be driven to minimum: research in this area is as 
important as harvesting. 

Processing power is further reduces by better chip technologies and integration 

In case of wireless power transfer, the effects to organic tissues must be understood and 
regulated. Research should focus on highly directional beams from transmitters to receiver 
devices. 

To allow AI to work with mobile devices, the facial, acoustic, etc. recognition algorithms need to 
work with compression artefacts 

Graphene-based processors and graphene supercapacitors are a promising pathway to achieve 
this goal. 

No. of 
votes 

76 

48 

19 

12 

11 

9 

4 

2 

1 

1 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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It  is  2040.  Renewable  Energy  is  available  at  competitive  prices.  More  than  half  the 
electricity  used  for  transport,  housing  and  industry  comes  from  renewable  sources.  A 
pan-European smart grid coupled with local micro-grids, with adequate storage facilities, 
ensures  reliability  of  electricity  supply.  Hydrogen  and  biofuels  complement  the  system. 
The sector is expanding to novel cultivations, such as algae and bacteria.  

Studies and reports