REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS THE FIRST CLEAN AIR OUTLOOK
Date: 2018-06-07
Institutions: Directorate-General for Environment, European Commission
Subjects: EU emission allowance, EU environmental policy, air quality, atmospheric pollutant, environmental cooperation, environmental impact, pollution control, prevention of pollution, reduction of gas emissions

EN 

  EN 

   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 7.6.2018  COM(2018) 446 final  REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS THE FIRST CLEAN AIR OUTLOOK  
 
 
THE FIRST CLEAN AIR OUTLOOK 

1.    INTRODUCTION 

Air pollution remains a major environmental and health problem in the EU.  Many European 
cities  suffer  from  poor  air  quality  and  exceed  the  EU  standards  set  out  in  the  Ambient  Air 
Quality  Directive  2008/50/EC1,  and  still  more  exceed  the  guidelines  recommended  by  the 
World  Health  Organization  (WHO).  The  European  Environment  Agency  has  estimated  that 
around 400 000 people died prematurely in the EU in 2015 as a result of air pollution2. 

The  EU  review  of  air  policy  in  2011-2013  culminated  in  the  Clean  Air  Policy  Package  of 
December 20133.  This comprised a communication – a Clean Air Programme for Europe4 – 
and  three  legislative  proposals,  to  control  emissions  from  Medium  Combustion  Plants, 
adopted  as  Directive  (EU)  2015/2193  ('the  MCPD')5;  to  ratify  the  amendment  of  the  2012 
Gothenburg  Protocol  setting  emission  reductions  for  2020,  adopted  as  Council  Decision 
2017/1757/EU6; and to set new national reduction commitments for 2030 in a new Directive 
on  the  reduction  of  emissions  of  certain  atmospheric  pollutants,  adopted  as  Directive  (EU) 
2016/2284 (the 'NECD')7.  

The  2013  Clean  Air  Programme  proposed  that  there  should  be  a  regular  report  on  the  air 
quality  situation  in  Europe,  covering  the  prospects  for  emission  reduction  and  progress 
towards the EU's objectives.With the adoption of the NECD in December 2016, the analytical 
basis  has  been  updated,  and  this  first  edition  of  the  'Clean  Air  Outlook'  aims  to  fulfil  that 
brief,  and  to  provide  context  for  Member  States'  work  in  developing  the  National  Air 
Pollution Control Programmes due under the NECD by 1 April 2019. 

2. 

THE STATE OF AIR QUALITY IN THE EU AND PROGRESS TOWARDS COMPLIANCE BY 
2020 

2.1. The current air emissions and air quality situation 

The positive trend in reduction of the main air pollutants in the EU has continued, as shown in 
Figure 1 below, as has the decoupling from economic growth. Overall, during the 2000-2015 
period,  the  EU's  combined  GDP  grew  by  32%  while  emissions  of  the  main  air  pollutants 
decreased by between 10% (for ammonia - NH3) and 70% (for sulphur oxides - SOx). 

1 OJ L 152 , 11.06.2008, p. 1 – 44 
2 European Enviroment Agency (EEA), October 2017, ‘Air quality in Europe - 2017 report’ 
3 See: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/clean_air/review.htm 
4 COM(2013)918 final 
5 OJ L 313, 28.11.2015, p. 1–19 
6 OJ L 248, 27.9.2017, p. 3 - 75 
7 OJ L 344 of 17.12.2016, p. 1 

1 

 
 
                                                            
Figure 1: Development in EU-28 emissions, 2000-2015 (as % of 2000 levels) [Source EEA] 

However, there are still major problems with exceedence of the EU's air quality limit values. 
For 2015, up to 20% of the EU-28 urban population was exposed to levels above the EU daily 
limit value for particulate matter (PM10).  For fine particulate matter (PM2.5), up to 8 % of the 
urban population was exposed to concentrations above the EU limit value of 25 µg/m3, and 
more than 82% to levels above the much stricter WHO guideline value of 10 µg/m3. 

For  nitrogen  dioxide  (NO2)  the  annual  limit  value  continues  to  be  widely  exceeded  across 
Europe, with concentrations above the identical EU and WHO limit in 22 Member States, to 
which up to 9% of the urban population are exposed. 

For ozone, 18 Member States registered concentrations above the EU target value, and up to 
30% of the EU urban population lived in areas in which the target value was exceeded, with 
more than 95% living in areas where the stricter WHO guideline was exceeded8. 

2.2. Progress towards compliance 

Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from diesel-powered passenger cars and light duty vehicles, 
systematically  much  higher  than  the  type-approved  limit  values,  are  a  major  contributing 
factor to the non-compliance with the NO2 limit value. The recent adoption, in 2017, of a new 
EU-wide test procedure reflecting the real-driving emissions of these vehicles9 and the 2016 
Commission  proposal  on  a  revised  type  approval  system10  will  help  make  progress  on  this 
issue. 

Measures promoting compliance with the PM10 limit value include the gradual penetration of 
particle filters to meet PM emission limits for passenger cars (included in Euro 5 and 611), and 
the  controls  on  combustion  plants  under  the  Industrial  Emissions  Directive  (IED)12  and  the 
MCPD.    Although  the  Ecodesign  requirements  on  solid  fuel  stoves13  and  boilers14  agreed 

8 European Environment Agency (EEA), October 2017, ‘Air quality in Europe - 2017 report’ 
9 Commission Regulation (EU) 2017/1151, as amended. OJ L 175, 7.7.2017, p. 1–643. 
10 COM(2016)31 final. 
11  Regulation (EC) No 715/2007. OJ L 171, 29.6.2007, p. 1–16. 
12 Directive 2010/75/EU, OJ L 334, 17.12.2010, p. 17–119 
13 Commission Regulation 2015/1185, OJ EU L 193, 21.07.2015. 
14 Commission Regulation 2015/1189, OJ EU L 193, 21.07.2015. 

2 

 
 
 
                                                            
upon  at  EU  level  in  2015  will  only  apply  after  2020,  a  number  of  Member  States  have 
proactively  introduced  them  in  advance  of  the  deadline  (e.g.  Poland)  to  assist  in  tackling 
emissions  of  PM,  volatile  organic  compounds  (VOC)  and  NOx.  Moreover,  Ecodesign  and 
other  requirements  to  improve  energy  efficiency  (laid  down  notably  by  the  2010  Energy 
Performance  of  Buildings  Directive15,  the  2012  Energy  Efficiency  Directive16  and  the  2017 
Energy  Labelling  Regulation17)  contribute  to  emission  reductions  of  atmospheric  pollutants 
by decreasing energy consumption.  The recently-adopted Best Available Techniques (BAT) 
conclusions on Large Combustion Plants18 under the IED will also have positive impacts on 
NOx, SO2, and PM. However, as solid biomass remains by far the largest contributor (82%) to 
renewable  heat  production19  and  bioenergy  as  a  whole  will  continue  to  represent  a  large 
proportion  of  the  EU  renewable  energy  mix20,  improvements  in  emission  control  could  be 
offset to some extent by increased numbers of emitters. 

Much further effort is still needed to ensure exceedances of limit values are kept as short as 
possible.  There  are  currently  30  infringement  procedures  open  against  Member  States 
concerning Directive 2008/50/EC, 16 for exceedance of PM10 limit values, 13 for exceedance 
of NO2 limit values, and one for exceedance of SO2 limit values.  

There  is  also  significant  EU  funding  support  available  to  Member  States  to  finance  air 
pollution  control  measures  (see  section  3.2.5).    In  the  broader  context  of  the  Commission's 
Environmental Implementation Review21, the Commission is pursuing Clean Air Dialogues22 
with  Member  States,  to  better  understand  national  approaches  to  implementation,  share 
experience  on  solutions,  promote  synergies  between  policies  and  identify  areas  where  EU 
funds can help. The dialogues have been particularly successful in promoting action involving 
all relevant ministries and stakeholders. 

2.3. The Fitness Check of the Ambient Air Quality Directives 

The 2013 Clean Air Programme  concluded that it was not at that time appropriate to revise 
the  Ambient  Air  Quality  Directives  2008/50/EU  and  2004/107/EC,  stressing  the  need  to 
ensure compliance with existing standards, and bring down emissions through the NECD. 

In 2017 the Commission initiated a Fitness Check to examine the performance of the Ambient 
Air Quality Directives. It builds on the analysis underlying the Clean Air Programme and will 
draw on experience in all Member States, focusing on the period 2008 to 2018. It will look at 
the fitness-for-purpose of all the Directives' provisions, and in particular the monitoring and 
assessment methods, the air quality standards, the provisions on public information, and the 
extent to which the Directives have facilitated action to prevent or reduce adverse impacts. 

Administrative  costs,  overlaps  and/or  synergies,  gaps,  inconsistencies  and/or  potentially 
obsolete measures will also be addressed, as well as the coherence of air quality governance 
between  EU,  Member  State,  regional  and  local  levels.  Under  current  planning  the  fitness 
check will be concluded in 2019. 

15 Directive 2010/31/EU, OJ L 153, 18.6.2010, p. 13–35. 
16 Directive 2012/27/EU, OJ L 315, 14.11.2012, p. 1–56. 
17 Regulation (EU) 2017/1369, OJ L 198, 28.7.2017, p. 1–23. 
18 Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2017/1442, OJ L 212, 17.8.2017, p. 1–82. 
19 COM(2017) 57 final-  Renewable Energy Progress Report, p.5 
20 COM(2016) 860 final- Communication  Clean Energy For All Europeans, p.9 
21 See: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/eir/index_en.htm  
22 See: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/clean_air/dialogue.htm  

3 

 
 
                                                            
 
3. 

IMPLEMENTATION  OF  THE  NEW  NATIONAL  EMISSIONS  CEILINGS  DIRECTIVE  AND 
ADDITIONAL SOURCE LEGISLATION 

3.1. Health and ecosystem targets 

The  targets  set  in  the  Clean  Air  Programme  were  based  on  the  reductions  outlined  in  the 
Commission  proposal23  for  the  NECD.  Now  that  the  Directive  has  entered  into  force  since 
December  31st  2016,  and  additional  source  legislation  (i.e.  measures  regulating  specific 
pollution sources such as vehicles, stoves, industrial plants) has been adopted since the Clean 
Air Programme of 2013, these figures can be updated as indicated in Table 1 below.  

Table 1: Air policy benefits projected for 2030 by the NECD and all source legislation adopted 
since 2014, as compared with the proposals in the Clean  Air Programme (relative to 2005, the 
base year)  

Expected reduction in negative 
health impacts compared to 
2005 
(premature mortality due to 
particulate matter and ozone ) 

Expected reduction in 
ecosystem areas exceeding 
eutrophication limits compared 
to 2005 

52% 

35% 

49,6% 

- 

54% 

27% 

Clean Air Programme for 
Europe (December 2013) using 
a baseline which does not 
include source legislation 
adopted since 2014 

NECD impacts as estimated at 
the time of adoption in 
December 2016, using the same 
baseline as above 

NECD impacts using a 
baseline which incorporates 
the impact of source 
legislation adopted since 2014 

Some explanation is in order, in particular of the calculated health impact reduction of 54% 
while the expected impact (at the time of adoption) was just under 50%.  This is due to two 
factors. 

The first is the effect of the specific additional source legislation that has been adopted since 
2014.  The  2015  MCPD  emission  controls  apply  to  all  new  combustion  plants  from  20 
December 2018, and to existing plants by 2025 or 2030 (depending on their size). The 2015 
Ecodesign Implementing Regulations apply to new solid fuel boilers sold on the market from 
1 January 2020, and to new solid fuel stoves from 1 January 2022. The 2016 Regulation on 
Non  Road  Mobile  Machinery  (NRMM)24  applies  to  engines  placed  on  the  market  from  1 
January 2019, 2020 or 2021, depending on the class of engine.  The 2017 Large Combustion 
Plants BAT Conclusions apply to new plants from 17 August 2017, and to all existing plants 
by 17 August 2021. The 2013 Clean Air Package stressed the potential contribution that the 

23 COM(2013)920 final 
24 Regulation (EU) 2016/1628 - OJ EU L 252, 16.09.2016 

4 

 
 
 
                                                            
implementation of these initiatives could deliver by 2030, and the final versions of the laws 
are now incorporated in the analysis. A combined assessment of all such measures allows to 
conclude that greater reductions than those estimated at the time of adoption of the NECD are 
actually to be expected by 2030, provided full compliance with all relevant legal requirements 
is ensured. 

The second factor is where measures introduced to reduce emissions of one pollutant deliver 
co-benefits for others (so-called 'co-control measures'). An example is controls on agricultural 
waste  burning  under  the  CAP25  and  Annex  III  of  the  NECD,  often  driven  by  the  need  to 
achieve NH3 reductions, but which also reduce PM and VOCs.  In many cases these synergies 
lead  to  cost  savings  but  in  some  other  cases,  they  mainly  lead  to  additional  health  benefits. 
The impact of this factor will depend on the combination of measures selected in practice by 
Member States. 

These  effects  do  not  play  out  in  the  same  way  for  eutrophication.  Indeed,  none  of  the  
additional  pieces  of  EU  source  legislation  adopted  since  2014  tackles  NH3,  and  co-control 
benefits are limited.  Thus the relaxation in the required NH3 emission reduction between the 
Commission  proposal  and  the  adopted  NECD  (from  25%  reduction  to  19%)  results  in  a 
broadly  proportionate  drop  in  the  ecosystem  improvement  resulting  from  the  emission 
reduction. 

3.2. Implementation of the NECD reduction commitments for 2020 and 2030 

3.2.1.  Achievement of the 2020 reduction commitments 

The 2013 Impact Assessment projected that the EU's 2020 reduction commitments (set in the 
2012 revision of the Gothenburg Protocol) would be achieved by the EU legislation already in 
force at that point.  This is confirmed at EU level by the updated analysis, but the implications 
for  individual  Member  States  can  vary  and,  depending  on  national  circumstances,  further 
action may be needed to ensure compliance. 

3.2.2.  Achievement of the 2030 reduction commitments 

The estimate for achieving the 2030 reductions in the Commission’s proposal for the NECD 
was €2,2bn.26  The analysis shows that the cost of achieving the actual levels of reductions as 
agreed within the NECD as adopted in December 2016 are actually lower, i.e. €1,8bn. This is 
a consequence of the relaxation of level of reduction targets agreed by the co-legislators.  

If  the  additional  source  legislation  adopted  since  2014  is  taken  into  account,  the  costs 
attributable  to  the  NECD  are  expected  to  reduce  further  to  €960m  (or  1.9€/person/year27). 
Most  of  the  difference  is  in  the  domestic  sector,  resulting  from  implementation  of  the 
Ecodesign provisions for solid fuel stoves and boilers.  If the estimated impact of the future 
EU  2030  climate  and  energy  framework28  is  also  included,  a  further  drop  (mainly  in  the 

25 Annex II on cross-compliance of Regulation (EU) 1306/2013 on the financing, management and monitoring 
of the common agricultural policy, OJ L 347, 20.12.2013, p. 549. 
26 The estimate for implementation costs of the original COM proposal is set out in the TSAP 16 report (IIASA). 

Available on http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/policy/TSAP-reports.html 

27  Note  that  the  per  capita  figure  is  an  average  which  does  not  reflect  differences  in  costs  between  economic 

operators and regions. 
28  Commission  proposals  available  on  https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030_en#tab-0-0;  formal 
adoption of 2017 co-decision agreements currently pending. 

5 

 
 
                                                            
power and industrial sectors) to €540m (ie 1.05€/person/year) is to be expected. Benefits are 
expected  to  largely  exceed  costs,  notably  by  a  factor  varying  between  14  (the  conservative 
estimate) and 50. 

The proportion of the implementation costs borne by individual Member States also changes, 
due  to  various  factors  including  the  contribution  of  new  source  legislation,  and  changes  in 
projections  of  the  2030  national  energy  mix  (in  particular  increased  use  of  coal  in  some 
Member States).29 

3.2.3.  Areas where additional source legislation could be needed 

Figure  2a  below  shows  the  proportion  of  the  reductions  which  are  achieved  by  (a)  the  pre-
2014 baseline, (b) the additional legislation adopted since 2014, (c) further measures required 
to  fulfil  the  NECD  Emission  Reduction  Requirements  (ERRs)  and (d)  'co-control  measures' 
(see section 3.1 above).  The most relevant co-control measures are a) the ban of agricultural 
waste burning included in Annex III of the NECD (which reduces PM2.5, VOC, NH3, as well 
as  CO  and  CH4)  b)  control  of  emissions  from  wood  stoves  to  Ecodesign  standards  (which 
reduces PM2.5, VOC, NOx and NH3, as well as CO and CH4) and c) control of emissions from 
coal stoves, also under Ecodesign (which reduces PM2.5, VOC, SO2 and NOx). 

Broadly  speaking  the  analysis  confirms  the  overall  validity  of  the  approach  taken  in  the 
original proposal.  For SO2 and NOx deep reductions are achieved by the legislation already in 
force  by  2013.  The  main  effect  of  the  reduction  commitments  is  to  consolidate  these  and 
ensure that changes in activity (e.g. increased coal use in some Member States) do not affect 
the  overall  reduction.  For  PM  and  VOCs,  the  impact  of  the  NECD  and  of  the  additional 
legislation  adopted  since  2014  is  substantially  higher,  reflecting  the  smaller  reductions 
achieved by earlier legislation.  

29 Detail is available in the accompanying report by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 
'Progress towards the achievement of the EU's air quality and emissions objectives'. 

6 

 
 
 
 
                                                            
Figure 2a: Contributions to the Emissions Reduction Requirements (ERRs) delivered by (i) the 
pre-2014 legislation baseline, (ii) the POST-2014 legislation measures, (iii) further measures that 
are required to meet the Emission Reduction Requirements, and (iv) co-controls from measures 
targeted at other emissions.  SO2, NOx, VOC and PM2,5 

7 

0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%AustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzech R.DenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsPolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenUKShare of ERRs between 2005 and 2030% delivered by pre-2014 legislation% delivered by post-2014 legislationNeed for additional measuresCo-controls from other pollutantsSO20%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%AustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzech R.DenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsPolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenUKShare of ERRs between 2005 and 2030% delivered by pre-2014 legislation% delivered by post-2014 legislationNeed for additional measuresCo-controls from other pollutantsNOx0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%AustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzech R.DenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsPolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenUKShare of ERRs between 2005 and 2030% delivered by pre-2014 legislation% delivered by post-2014 legislationNeed for additional measuresCo-controls from other pollutantsVOC0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%AustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzech R.DenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsPolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenUKShare of ERRs between 2005 and 2030% delivered by pre-2014 legislation% delivered by post-2014 legislationNeed for additional measuresCo-controls from other pollutantsPM2.5 
 
 
 
 
For  NH3  the  picture  is  different,  as  shown  in  Figure  2b.    The  reductions  must  be  delivered 
almost  entirely  by  the  NECD,  with  little  contribution  from  source  legislation  either  in  the 
baseline prior to 2014 or in the additional measures adopted since. 

Figure 2b: NH3 - contributions to the Emission Reduction Requirements (ERRs) delivered by (i) 
the  pre-2014  legislation  baseline,  (ii)  the  post-2014  legislation  measures,  (iii)  further  measures 
that  are  required  to  meet  the  ERRs,  and  (iv)  co-controls  from  measures  targeted  at  other 
emissions. 

The sectors in which the required NH3 reductions could be delivered are shown in Figure 3 
below. Measures to reduce emissions from application of mineral fertilisers, specifically urea, 
are  identified  as  cost-effective  in  many  Member  States.  A  full  ban  on  use  of  urea  was  not 
included  in  the  NECD,  as  there  are  viable  options  including  optimised  timing  and  rate  of 
application,  use  of  commercially  available  urease  inhibitors,  or  switching  to  other  mineral 
fertilisers  with  lower  NH3  loses  (e.g  ammonium  nitrate).    A  substantial  proportion  of  the 
reduction is to be achieved from manure management at pig and poultry farms, and the recent 
BAT conclusions on Intensive Rearing of Pigs and Poultry30 (not yet included in the analysis) 
may contribute to the required reductions. Manure management measures beyond this scope 
are also widely cost-effective, and a simplified BAT-based scheme for manure management, 
e.g.  inspired  by  the  experience  with  the  Industrial  Emissions  Directive,  would  provide 
substantial  support  for  implementation.  Synergies  with  the  implementation  of  relevant  EU 
legislation, such as the Nitrates Directive 91/676/EEC31, should also be further strengthened 
by  encouraging  Member  States  to  introduce  management  measures  addressing  the 
requirements of air, water and soil in an integrated way. 

30 Commission implementing decision (EU) 2017/302, OJ L 43, 21.2.2017, p. 231–279. 
31 Council Directive 91/676/EEC, OJ L 375, 31.12.1991, p. 1. 

8 

0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%AustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzech R.DenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsPolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenUKShare of ERRs between 2005 and 2030% delivered by pre-2014 legislation% delivered by post-2014 legislationNeed for additional measuresCo-controls from other pollutantsNH3 
 
 
 
 
                                                            
Figure  3:  Further  reductions  of  NH3  emissions  to  reach  the  ERRs  in  2030,  beyond  the  2017 
legislation baseline, by sector 

3.2.4. 

Sectoral and macroeconomic impacts 

The economic effects of air pollution regulation extend beyond the direct benefits and costs 
presented  in  Sections  3.1  and  3.2.2.  First,  implementing  pollution  reduction  technologies 
generates  additional  demand  for  the  sectors  delivering  the  abatement  goods.  Second,  rising 
abatement  costs  may  influence  the  competitiveness  of  sectors  that  are  active  on  an 
international market. Third, impacts on a sector's output can generate economy-wide impacts 
by  affecting  the  demand  for  intermediate  goods  and  labour.  The  latter  implies  changes  in 
employment and wages, affecting households' disposable incomes and welfare. 

To  account  for  these  indirect  effects,  macro-economic  and  sector-specific  impacts  of 
achieving the 2030 commitments were calculated (using the JRC-GEM-E3 model). These are 
set  out  in  Table  2  below  and  are  broadly  as  identified  in  the  2013  Impact  Assessment 
accompanying  the  Commission  proposal  for  the  NECD:  the  costs  of  achieving  the  2030 
reduction commitments are more than offset by health and agriculture benefits (reduced sick 
leave and improved crop yields), generating a small positive GDP impact. Sectors that incur a 
substantial  share  of  the  costs  (e.g.  agriculture)  experience  a  slight  decrease  in  output,  while 
production rises in sectors that benefit from increased demand for abatement goods, such as 
electric goods, transport and other equipment goods. 

9 

-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%GERMESTOLUXEPOLAAUSTCROAHUNGIRELBULGPORTBELGSPAIFINLITALLATVROMACYPRLITHUNKISWEDFRANDENMSKRECZREMALTSLOVNETHGREEEU28NH3 reductions relative to 2017 legislation baselineOtherSheep and goatsAgricultural waste burningOther cattlePoultryPigsMineral fertilizersDairy cows 
 
 
 
 
Table  2:  Impact  of  achieving  the  2030  emission  reduction  commitments  on  GDP  and  sector 
output. Source: JRC-GEM-E3. 

Benchmark* includes 
   Source legislation adopted since 2014? 
   Climate and energy package32? 

Health and crop yield benefits included? 

No 
No 

No 

No 
No 

Yes 

Yes 
No 

No 

Yes 
No 

Yes 

Yes 
Yes 

No 

Yes 
Yes 

Yes 

GDP 

-0.010 

0.006 

-0.005 

0.006 

-0.002 

0.006 

Agriculture 
Energy 
Energy intensive industries 
Other industry 
Services 

-0.09 
0.01 
0.00 
0.01 
0.00 

-0.04 
0.03 
0.02 
0.03 
0.01 

-0.05 
0.01 
0.00 
0.01 
0.00 

-0.07 
0.02 
0.02 
0.02 
0.01 

-0.07 
0.01 
0.00 
0.00 
0.00 

-0.05 
0.02 
0.02 
0.02 
0.01 

* Results indicate percentage difference with the respective benchmark in 2030. 

3.2.5.  EU funding sources contributing to air quality 

Substantial  resources  are  available  from  EU  funds,  including  in  areas  such  as  transport, 
energy,  agriculture  and  industry  where  environmental  protection  requirements  should  be 
mainstreamed.  Under  the  European  Structural  and  Investment  Funds  especially  the  funding 
linked to Thematic Objectives 4 Low Carbon Economy (€45bn), 6 Environment Protection & 
Resource Efficiency (€63bn) and 7 Network Infrastructure in Transport and Energy (€58bn) 
could  be  mobilised.33    A  recent  study34  has  provisionally  estimated  that  around  €76bn  has 
been  allocated  to  actions  contributing  purely  or  partially  to  air  quality  in  the  European 
Regional Development Fund (ERDF), the Cohesion Fund (CF) and the European Agricultural 
Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD). On a smaller scale, the ERDF also provides funding 
opportunities for innovation, in line with regional or national smart specialisation strategies, 
some of which may be used for air quality.  

Under the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF), €32bn is made available from the EU’s 2014-
2020 budget to co-fund transport and energy projects in the EU Member States, out of which 
around €9bn, mostly from the transport pillar, have been committed for projects which may 
have some benefit for air quality. For research and innovation, up to €12bn in Horizon 2020 
could  benefit  emission  reductions  and  air  quality.  The  LIFE  programme  supports  pilot  and 
demonstration  projects  as  well  as  Integrated  Projects  for  the  implementation  of  air  quality 
plans. It is estimated that around € 300M will have been available for projects with a direct or 
indirect air impact in the period 2014-2020. Of the €315bn provided for loans and financial 
instruments  under  the  European  Fund  for  Strategic  Investments  (EFSI),  it  is  estimated  that 
about  30  %  of  the  uptake  (around  €  95bn)  will  have  been  allocated  for  projects  with  an  air 
quality dimension such as energy and transport, and there are also opportunities provided by 
the European Investment Bank. 

The financial provisions of the NECD (Article 7 and 11.1(c)) are designed to encourage better 
mainstreaming  and  more  effective  use  of  funding  for  air  quality.  Member  States  are 
encouraged to make maximum use of the available funding.   

32 Commission proposals for ETS and non-ETS (ESR) for 2030,  
https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030_en  
33 See https://cohesiondata.ec.europa.eu/  
34 Report by the company Ricardo Energy and Environment on a tracking methodology for air quality, 
forthcoming 

10 

 
 
  
  
  
  
  
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                            
The  Multiannual  Financial  Framework  for  2021-2027,  as  proposed  by  the  European 
Commission35, will continue to support measures to improve air quality, including through the 
target of 25% of EU expenditure contributing to climate objectives and a strengthening of the 
LIFE programme. 

3.2.6. 

Summary 

The  updated  analysis  shows  that  the  additional  costs  of  implementing  the  NECD  are 
substantially lower than expected, partly as a result of changes made by the colegislators,  but 
also because of pieces of EU law adopted in the meantime which serve air quality goals, and 
the  expected  positive  impact  of  the  future  EU  2030  climate  and  energy  package,  due  for 
adoption soon. 

However,  it  is  important  to  avoid  complacency.    The  analysis  assumes  full  implementation 
and  enforcement  of  legislation  which  Member  States  must  ensure.    It  is  also  based  on 
assumptions, in particular on activity and pollution control potential, which, despite our best 
efforts, may deviate from those of the Member States. 

Thus,  the  analysis  provides  a  broad  EU-level  perspective  and  should  be  treated  with 
appropriate  caution  when  developing  national-level  policy  in  the  National  Air  Pollution 
Control Programmes. 

4.  PROSPECTS FOR ATTAINMENT OF LONG-TERM OBJECTIVES 

4.1. WHO guideline values for PM2,5 

The EEA estimates  that, in  2015, 82%  of the EU population was exposed to concentrations 
above  the  WHO  PM2,5  guideline  of  10µg/m3.    Implementation  of  the  post-2014  policy  will 
improve this substantially.  Figure 4 shows the expected evolution between the NECD base 
year 2005 and the NECD target year 2030, based on the assumption of full implementation of 
the NECD.  From 88% of the population exposed to concentrations above the WHO guideline 
value in 2005, the proportion goes to 13% in 2030, and exceedances are limited to a few areas 
in  Europe,  with  most  of  those  within  5µg/m3  of  the  limit  value.  Thus  by  2030  most  urban 
concentrations would be at or under the WHO guideline value, and while issues would persist 
at specific locations, these could be addressed by local measures not included in the analysis 
underlying this report. 

Figure  4:  Distribution  of  population  exposure  in  the  EU  to  PM2,5  levels  in  2005,  and  in  2030 
assuming full implementation of NECD ERRs and all source legislation 

35  

COM(2018)321 

11 

 
 
                                                            
4.2. Exceedance of critical loads 

The most significant environmental impact of air quality is eutrophication of land and water 
ecosystems.    This  is  defined  in  terms  of  exceedance  of  ‘critical  loads’  for  deposition  –  the 
maximum  deposited  pollution  that  the  ecosystem  can  bear  without  adverse  ecological 
impacts.    Figure  5  below  shows  the  27%  reduction  in  ecosystem  areas  affected  by 
eutrophication  between  2005  and  2030  as  a  result  of  the  implementation  of  the  NECD  (see 
Table 1). 

Figure 5: Percentage of ecosystem area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads for 
eutrophication (2005 left, vs full implementation of NECD 2030, right) 

0 .. 3 

3 .. 10 

10 .. 30 

30 .. 70 

70 .. 90 

90 .. 95 

95 .. 

n2k missing 

12 

01002003004005006002005ERR 2030million peopleExposure rangeBelow WHO guideline (< 10 µg/m3)10-15 µg/m315-25 µg/m3>25 µg/m3 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Excess nitrogen deposition is caused by deposition of NOx and NH3. NH3 dominates, and its 
relative importance by 2030 will grow further due to the relatively small reduction required in 
the NECD compared with NOx (19% versus 66%). 

At  the  same  time,  there  is  further  reduction  potential  for  NH3.  Full  implementation  of 
currently  available  technical  measures  would  reduce  excess  deposition  by  more  than  75%. 
While this would not meet critical loads everywhere, further improvements would be possible 
that  have  not  been  taken  into  account  in  the  modelling  underlying  this  report,  in  particular 
control  of  emissions  from  large  point  sources  close  to  sensitive  ecosystems,  and  structural 
shifts in production driven by wider social concerns for a healthy diet. 

5.  SHORT-LIVED CLIMATE POLLUTANTS 

Black carbon, methane and ozone are of concern both for air quality and for climate. 

The NECD requires Member States to prioritise measures that also reduce black carbon when 
addressing their PM2,5 reduction commitments.  The measures to reduce PM2,5 (for example, 
in  domestic  solid  fuel  combustion,  particulate  pollution  from  diesel  cars,  agricultural  field 
burning  and  energy  generation)  will  also  deliver  black  carbon  reductions  of  72%  across  the 
EU by 2030. 

Methane and ozone are closely connected, as methane is  a major contributor to background 
ozone  concentrations.    Because  of  methane's  long  lifetime,  it  is  transported  long  distances 
over  the  northern  hemisphere,  with  emissions  in  the  USA,  China  and  India  affecting  EU 
concentrations and vice versa. The Commission's Joint Research Centre will present later in 
the year a technical report on methane emissions and their contribution to ozone.  Based on 
this  work,  the  Commission  will,  in  2019,  assess  the  potential  for  reductions  across  the 
northern  hemisphere  and  their  impacts  on  concentrations,  with  a  view  to  identifying 
appropriate methane reduction objectives in the context of a future hemispheric approach, in 
cooperation with the UNECE Convention on Long Range and Transboundary Air Pollution, 
the Climate and Clean Air Coalition and the Global Methane Initiative, as appropriate. 

Ozone concentrations would be exacerbated by temperature increases resulting from climate 
change,  and  this  should  be  considered  when  assessing  and  mitigating  air  pollution  in  the 
longer term. 

6.  THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION 

The adoption of the NECD allowed the EU to ratify, in August 2017, the 2012 revision of the 
Gothenburg  Protocol.    Ratifications  by  Member  States  can  bring  the  revised  Protocol  into 
force and while eight Member States have already ratified,36 the Commission encourages all 
others to do so as soon as possible. 

The  EU's  main  objective  remains  to  stimulate  wider  ratification  of  the  Protocol  by  non-EU 
countries, in particular the Eastern European, Caucasian and Central Asian states (EECCA). 
Flexible  provisions  for  EECCA  states  were  built  into  the  revised  Protocol  to  encourage 
ratification, but these are only usable if the Protocol enters into force before 2020  – another 
important reason for Member States to ratify quickly. 

36 CZ, FI, DE, NL, RO, SK, ES, SE.  See also: http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/status/lrtap_s.html  

13 

 
 
                                                            
 
The Commission will continue to develop its own work to assist neighbouring countries with 
air  policy,  in  particular  through  the  Instrument  for  Pre-Accession  Assistance  (IPA)  and  the 
European Neighbourhood Instrument (ENI). Sharing experience beyond the EU and UNECE 
is  also  a  priority,  and  the  EU  pushed  successfully  for  wider  regional  and  inter-regional 
cooperation  through  the  3rd  United  Nations  Environment  Assembly  (December  2017)  and 
will continue to do so bilaterally. The Commission is also funding assessment by the Arctic 
Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) of the reduction potential for black carbon 
emissions affecting the region. 

7.  CONCLUSIONS  

 

It is  positive  to  note that, taken together,  the package of measures adopted by the 
co-legislators since the 2013 Clean Air Programme – that is, not only the NECD but 
also  the  MCPD,  the  revised  Non-Road  Mobile  Machinery  Regulation  and  the 
implementing measures for the IED and Ecodesign Directive – are expected by 2030 
to  more  than  achieve  the  health  impact  reduction  of  52%  set  out  in  the 
Programme, and deliver PM2,5 concentrations in most of the EU which are below 
the WHO guideline value. 

  There is nonetheless an  urgent short-term need to take decisive action to achieve 
the  objectives  of  the  Ambient  Air  Quality  Directives,  at  all  governance  levels 
(national,  regional,  local)  and  with  the  full  involvement  of  market  actors,  as 
highlighted in the recent Communication “A Europe that protects: Clean air for all”37.  
Even in the longer term, complementary action at all these levels will be required 
to ensure that the EU's long-term objectives are met everywhere in Europe 

  The  impact  in  2030  depends  on  full  implementation  by  the  Member  States  of  all 
the  measures,  and  in  particular  of  robust  National  Air  Pollution  Control 
Programmes  to  deliver  the  NECD  emission  reduction  commitments.  It  requires 
effective coordination of these Programmes with the implementation of other policies, 
inter  alia  the  Energy  Union  climate/energy  measures,  road  transport  policy  and  the 
upcoming reform of the Common Agricultural Policy.  Uptake of the substantial EU 
financial support available will also greatly facilitate implementation. 

  While,  for  most  sectors  and  pollutants,  source 

legislation  supports  NECD 
implementation  substantially,  agriculture's  NH3  emissions  are  an  exception.  
Effective  engagement  of  the  sector  will  be  needed  to  deliver  the  required 
reductions.    Even  then,  the  current  analysis  shows  that  the  EU  will  be  far  from  its 
long-term  objective  of  no  exceedence  of  eutrophication  critical  loads,  but  there  is 
substantial  further  reduction  potential  which  could  move  the  EU  much  closer.  The 
Commission will continue to support national efforts in this regard, including by 
maximising  the  use  of  Common  Agricultural  Policy  funding  and  by  promoting 
synergies with  the implementation of relevant EU legislation, such as the Nitrates 
Directive 91/676/EEC.     

  As  stated  by  the  Commission  at  the  time  of  adoption  of  the  new  NECD,  methane 
emissions should also be kept under review with regard to their impact on ozone 

37 COM(2018) 330 final 

14 

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                            
concentrations in the EU and to promote methane reductions internationally. On 
the basis of the reported national emissions, the Commission will further assess the 
impact  of  methane  emissions  on  achieving  air  policy  objectives,  consider 
measures  for  reducing  those  emissions  and,  where  appropriate,  submit  a 
legislative proposal, based on the evidence at EU and global level. 

The  next  Clean  Air  Outlook  will  be  published  in  2020,  and  will  include  the  Commission's 
analysis of the 2019 National Air Pollution Control Programmes. 

15