COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT Accompanying the document Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council setting CO2 emission performance standards for new heavy duty vehicles
Date: 2018-05-17
Institutions: Directorate-General for Climate Action, European Commission
Subjects: bus, commercial vehicle, energy consumption, fuel, greenhouse gas, large vehicle, motor fuel, motor vehicle pollution, pollution control measures, reduction of gas emissions

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   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  Brussels, 17.5.2018  SWD(2018) 186 final  COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT  Accompanying the document Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council setting CO2 emission performance standards for new heavy duty vehicles  {COM(2018) 284 final} - {SEC(2018) 233 final} - {SWD(2018) 185 final}  
 
 
Executive Summary Sheet 

Impact  assessment on a  Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament  and of the Council setting CO2 
emission performance standards for new heavy-duty vehicles  

A. Need for action 

Why? What is the problem being addressed?  
Between 1990 and 2015, CO2 emissions of heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) rose by some 19%. HDV CO2 emissions 
are currently not regulated within the EU, contrary to car and van emissions.  

A large number of readily available cost-effective technologies to improve fuel efficiency are not widely deployed 
in  the  market  even  though  their  costs  are  low  and  they  could  bring  high  net  savings.  This  is  mainly  due  to 
imperfect and asymmetric information in the new vehicle market as it is complex for transport operators, which 
are mainly SMEs, to access and make full use of the technical information on such technologies.  

As a result, the problems identified are: 

1)  The CO2 emissions  from HDVs  are  set  to  increase,  without  further action,  by up  to 6%  between  2015 

and 2030.  

2)  Transport operators and their customers miss out on fuel savings.  
3)  European  HDV  manufacturers  and  component  suppliers  are  at  risk  of  losing  their  technological 
innovative leadership as significant markets such as the US, Canada, Japan and China have in recent 
years implemented emission standards to stimulate innovation and rapidly improve vehicle efficiency. 

Parties affected include the general population, freight transport operators and HDV manufacturers. 
What is this initiative expected to achieve?  
The initiative should: 1) contribute to the achievement of the EU's commitments under the Paris Agreement by 
reducing CO2 emissions from HDVs, 2) reduce operating costs for transport operators and transportation costs 
for consumers 3) maintain the technological and innovative leadership position of EU HDV manufacturers and 
component suppliers 

What is the value added of action at the EU level?  

EU action is cost-effective and will ensure coordinated measures across Member States in addressing climate 
change. It is unlikely that Member States acting individually would be sufficient.  

B. Solutions 

What  legislative  and  non-legislative  policy  options  have  been  considered?  Is  there  a  preferred 
choice or not? Why?  
Following  an analysis  of  transport-related  EU policy  measures,  the  need  to  introduce CO2 emission  standards 
was identified. This would set out a complementary supply side measure at EU level with the view of ensuring an 
effective decarbonisation of the HDVs transport sector.  

For the design of the CO2 standards, various policy options were considered with respect to: 

1)  CO2 emission targets 
2)  Distribution of EU fleet-wide CO2 emission targets across vehicle groups and manufacturers 
3) 
4)  Elements for cost-effective implementation 
5)  Strengthening of the governance  

Incentives for low- and zero-emission vehicles (LEV/ZEV) 

Who supports which option?  
The  majority  of  stakeholders  support  the  introduction  of  HDV  CO2  targets  at  EU  level.  HDV  manufacturers 
advocate  for  less  ambitious  targets  compared  to  NGOs  and  support  a  single  CO2  target  per  manufacturer. 
Regarding  LEV/ZEV,  manufacturers  support  super  credits,  while  NGOs  are  in  favour  of  a  mandate.  Cost-
effective implementation is supported by all stakeholders with manufacturers in favour of banking and borrowing 
and civil society organisations of trading. Most stakeholders support monitoring the certified CO2 values against 
real world emissions.  

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What are the benefits of the preferred option (if any, otherwise main ones)?  

C. Impacts of the preferred option 

The options considered cover a range of CO2 reduction target trajectories up to 2030. 

Across the different options considered for the target levels, the CO2 emission reductions for HDVs in 2030, with 
respect to the baseline, range from 3% to 8%. By  2030, NOx emissions  decrease by 1.3% to 4.7% and PM2.5 
emissions by up to 0.6 %.  

Significant net benefits are expected for society as a whole as well as for transport operators and consumers. 
They  increase  as  CO2  target  levels  get  stricter.  Net  economic  benefits  from  a  societal  perspective,  including 
avoided CO2 costs, range from 9,377 - 52,369 EUR per lorry registered in 2025 and from 41,567 –87,278 EUR 
per lorry registered in 2030.  

From the first and second use perspective, cumulative net savings, i.e. the difference between fuel savings and 
manufacturing  costs,  range  from  EUR  5,413  -  EUR  37,589  per  lorry  in  2025  and  from  EUR  22,032  to  EUR 
82,429 per lorry in 2030. This is equivalent to saving 1-4 % of its operating costs in 2025 and 3-12 % in 2030. 

An  analysis  of  the  cost-effective  technologies  already  at  hand  or  becoming  readily  available  in  the  short  term 
shows  that  their  full  deployment  would  allow  achieving  emission  reductions  between  15%  to  20%  in  2025 
compared to the baseline. 

Higher  uncertainties  over  the  performance  and  costs  of  more  advanced  technologies  and,  in  particular, 
alternative powertrains relying on the existence of an alternative fuels infrastructure could affect the feasibility of 
higher target level options in 2030. 

Total costs of HDV freight transport per activity are slightly reduced, by less than 1% in 2025 and in the order of 
1 to 3% in 2030. 

What are the costs of the preferred option (if any, otherwise main ones)?  
Manufacturing costs will increase and thus operators purchasing a new lorry will face higher upfront costs. For 
an average new lorry registered in 2025, they range from EUR 858 to EUR 27,797 and in 2030, they range from 
EUR 4,657 to EUR 58,760 across the options considered. In relative terms, this represents between 0.8% and 
25.3%, of the purchase price of the vehicle 

How will businesses, SMEs and micro-enterprises be affected?  

Transport  operators,  mainly  SMEs,  are  expected  to  benefit  from  reduced  fuel  consumption.  Resulting  savings 
are  estimated  to  significantly  outweigh  the  additional  costs  of  a  new  lorry  equipped  with  CO2  reduction 
technologies. SMEs supplying such technologies to HDV manufacturers will benefit from the additional demand. 

Will there be significant impacts on national budgets and administrations?  
Tax revenues in the EU28 are expected to decrease slightly due to decreased diesel sales. 

Will there be other significant impacts?  
A  regulatory framework  for  CO2  emissions  from  HDVs  will  help  the  EU  automotive  industry  to  retain  its global 
technological  and  innovative  leadership  and  access  to  markets.  Due  to  reduced  fossil  fuel  needs,  the  EU's 
energy security situation will improve. 

D. Follow up 

When will the policy be reviewed? Maximum 4 lines  
An  early  review  is  foreseen  in  2022  on  the  effectiveness  of  the  legislation.  The  review  would  (1)  establish  or 
confirm the target for 2030, (2) extend the scope to other groups of HDVs, i.e. buses and smaller lorries, (3) 
review  the  effectiveness  of  the  modalities  for  implementation,  for  instance  the  incentive  scheme  for  zero  and 
low emission vehicles.  

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